Predictive modeling of respiratory tumor motion for real-time prediction of baseline shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, A.; Shamsuddin, R.; Prabhakaran, B.; Sawant, A.

2017-03-01

Baseline shifts in respiratory patterns can result in significant spatiotemporal changes in patient anatomy (compared to that captured during simulation), in turn, causing geometric and dosimetric errors in the administration of thoracic and abdominal radiotherapy. We propose predictive modeling of the tumor motion trajectories for predicting a baseline shift ahead of its occurrence. The key idea is to use the features of the tumor motion trajectory over a 1 min window, and predict the occurrence of a baseline shift in the 5 s that immediately follow (lookahead window). In this study, we explored a preliminary trend-based analysis with multi-class annotations as well as a more focused binary classification analysis. In both analyses, a number of different inter-fraction and intra-fraction training strategies were studied, both offline as well as online, along with data sufficiency and skew compensation for class imbalances. The performance of different training strategies were compared across multiple machine learning classification algorithms, including nearest neighbor, Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant and ensemble Adaboost. The prediction performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and the area under the curve (AUC) for repeater operating characteristics curve. The key results of the trend-based analysis indicate that (i) intra-fraction training strategies achieve highest prediction accuracies (90.5-91.4%) (ii) the predictive modeling yields lowest accuracies (50-60%) when the training data does not include any information from the test patient; (iii) the prediction latencies are as low as a few hundred milliseconds, and thus conducive for real-time prediction. The binary classification performance is promising, indicated by high AUCs (0.96-0.98). It also confirms the utility of prior data from previous patients, and also the necessity of training the classifier on some initial data from the new patient for reasonable prediction performance. The ability to predict a baseline shift with a sufficient look-ahead window will enable clinical systems or even human users to hold the treatment beam in such situations, thereby reducing the probability of serious geometric and dosimetric errors.

Predictive modeling of respiratory tumor motion for real-time prediction of baseline shifts

PubMed Central

Balasubramanian, A; Shamsuddin, R; Prabhakaran, B; Sawant, A

2017-01-01

Baseline shifts in respiratory patterns can result in significant spatiotemporal changes in patient anatomy (compared to that captured during simulation), in turn, causing geometric and dosimetric errors in the administration of thoracic and abdominal radiotherapy. We propose predictive modeling of the tumor motion trajectories for predicting a baseline shift ahead of its occurrence. The key idea is to use the features of the tumor motion trajectory over a 1 min window, and predict the occurrence of a baseline shift in the 5 s that immediately follow (lookahead window). In this study, we explored a preliminary trend-based analysis with multi-class annotations as well as a more focused binary classification analysis. In both analyses, a number of different inter-fraction and intra-fraction training strategies were studied, both offline as well as online, along with data sufficiency and skew compensation for class imbalances. The performance of different training strategies were compared across multiple machine learning classification algorithms, including nearest neighbor, Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant and ensemble Adaboost. The prediction performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and the area under the curve (AUC) for repeater operating characteristics curve. The key results of the trend-based analysis indicate that (i) intra-fraction training strategies achieve highest prediction accuracies (90.5–91.4%); (ii) the predictive modeling yields lowest accuracies (50–60%) when the training data does not include any information from the test patient; (iii) the prediction latencies are as low as a few hundred milliseconds, and thus conducive for real-time prediction. The binary classification performance is promising, indicated by high AUCs (0.96–0.98). It also confirms the utility of prior data from previous patients, and also the necessity of training the classifier on some initial data from the new patient for reasonable prediction performance. The ability to predict a baseline shift with a sufficient lookahead window will enable clinical systems or even human users to hold the treatment beam in such situations, thereby reducing the probability of serious geometric and dosimetric errors. PMID:28075331

Predictive modeling of respiratory tumor motion for real-time prediction of baseline shifts.

PubMed

Balasubramanian, A; Shamsuddin, R; Prabhakaran, B; Sawant, A

2017-03-07

Baseline shifts in respiratory patterns can result in significant spatiotemporal changes in patient anatomy (compared to that captured during simulation), in turn, causing geometric and dosimetric errors in the administration of thoracic and abdominal radiotherapy. We propose predictive modeling of the tumor motion trajectories for predicting a baseline shift ahead of its occurrence. The key idea is to use the features of the tumor motion trajectory over a 1 min window, and predict the occurrence of a baseline shift in the 5 s that immediately follow (lookahead window). In this study, we explored a preliminary trend-based analysis with multi-class annotations as well as a more focused binary classification analysis. In both analyses, a number of different inter-fraction and intra-fraction training strategies were studied, both offline as well as online, along with data sufficiency and skew compensation for class imbalances. The performance of different training strategies were compared across multiple machine learning classification algorithms, including nearest neighbor, Naïve Bayes, linear discriminant and ensemble Adaboost. The prediction performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall and the area under the curve (AUC) for repeater operating characteristics curve. The key results of the trend-based analysis indicate that (i) intra-fraction training strategies achieve highest prediction accuracies (90.5-91.4%); (ii) the predictive modeling yields lowest accuracies (50-60%) when the training data does not include any information from the test patient; (iii) the prediction latencies are as low as a few hundred milliseconds, and thus conducive for real-time prediction. The binary classification performance is promising, indicated by high AUCs (0.96-0.98). It also confirms the utility of prior data from previous patients, and also the necessity of training the classifier on some initial data from the new patient for reasonable prediction performance. The ability to predict a baseline shift with a sufficient look-ahead window will enable clinical systems or even human users to hold the treatment beam in such situations, thereby reducing the probability of serious geometric and dosimetric errors.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NMRDSP: an accurate prediction of protein shape strings from NMR chemical shifts and sequence data.

PubMed

Mao, Wusong; Cong, Peisheng; Wang, Zhiheng; Lu, Longjian; Zhu, Zhongliang; Li, Tonghua

2013-01-01

Shape string is structural sequence and is an extremely important structure representation of protein backbone conformations. Nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shifts give a strong correlation with the local protein structure, and are exploited to predict protein structures in conjunction with computational approaches. Here we demonstrate a novel approach, NMRDSP, which can accurately predict the protein shape string based on nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shifts and structural profiles obtained from sequence data. The NMRDSP uses six chemical shifts (HA, H, N, CA, CB and C) and eight elements of structure profiles as features, a non-redundant set (1,003 entries) as the training set, and a conditional random field as a classification algorithm. For an independent testing set (203 entries), we achieved an accuracy of 75.8% for S8 (the eight states accuracy) and 87.8% for S3 (the three states accuracy). This is higher than only using chemical shifts or sequence data, and confirms that the chemical shift and the structure profile are significant features for shape string prediction and their combination prominently improves the accuracy of the predictor. We have constructed the NMRDSP web server and believe it could be employed to provide a solid platform to predict other protein structures and functions. The NMRDSP web server is freely available at http://cal.tongji.edu.cn/NMRDSP/index.jsp.

A comparative study of the effects of cone-plate and parallel-plate geometries on rheological properties under oscillatory shear flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hyeong Yong; Salehiyan, Reza; Li, Xiaolei; Lee, Seung Hak; Hyun, Kyu

2017-11-01

In this study, the effects of cone-plate (C/P) and parallel-plate (P/P) geometries were investigated on the rheological properties of various complex fluids, e.g. single-phase (polymer melts and solutions) and multiphase systems (polymer blend and nanocomposite, and suspension). Small amplitude oscillatory shear (SAOS) tests were carried out to compare linear rheological responses while nonlinear responses were compared using large amplitude oscillatory shear (LAOS) tests at different frequencies. Moreover, Fourier-transform (FT)-rheology method was used to analyze the nonlinear responses under LAOS flow. Experimental results were compared with predictions obtained by single-point correction and shear rate correction. For all systems, SAOS data measured by C/P and P/P coincide with each other, but results showed discordance between C/P and P/P measurements in the nonlinear regime. For all systems except xanthan gum solutions, first-harmonic moduli were corrected using a single horizontal shift factor, whereas FT rheology-based nonlinear parameters ( I 3/1, I 5/1, Q 3, and Q 5) were corrected using vertical shift factors that are well predicted by single-point correction. Xanthan gum solutions exhibited anomalous corrections. Their first-harmonic Fourier moduli were superposed using a horizontal shift factor predicted by shear rate correction applicable to highly shear thinning fluids. The distinguished corrections were observed for FT rheology-based nonlinear parameters. I 3/1 and I 5/1 were superposed by horizontal shifts, while the other systems displayed vertical shifts of I 3/1 and I 5/1. Q 3 and Q 5 of xanthan gum solutions were corrected using both horizontal and vertical shift factors. In particular, the obtained vertical shift factors for Q 3 and Q 5 were twice as large as predictions made by single-point correction. Such larger values are rationalized by the definitions of Q 3 and Q 5. These results highlight the significance of horizontal shift corrections in nonlinear oscillatory shear data.

A Pilot Study to Examine the Relationship Between Napping and Fatigue in Nurses Practicing on the Night Shift.

PubMed

Neville, Kathleen; Velmer, Gillian; Brown, Shari; Robol, Nancy

2017-11-01

The aim of this study is to explore the relationship of night-shift napping on fatigue. Nurses' fatigue, especially at night, interferes with quality of life and job performance and impacts safety and health. Night-shift nurses completed the Brief Fatigue Inventory and a demographic information sheet to determine differences in fatigue between nurses who napped during their night shift as compared with nurses who did not nap. No statistically significant differences in global fatigue were found; differences in rotating shift, age, and, gender were identified. Rotating shifts, a 2nd job, and caring for family predicted fatigue. Based on this pilot study, further investigations of fatigue among night-shift nurses are needed as well as evidence-based support to promote sleep.

Using 1H and 13C NMR chemical shifts to determine cyclic peptide conformations: a combined molecular dynamics and quantum mechanics approach.

PubMed

Nguyen, Q Nhu N; Schwochert, Joshua; Tantillo, Dean J; Lokey, R Scott

2018-05-10

Solving conformations of cyclic peptides can provide insight into structure-activity and structure-property relationships, which can help in the design of compounds with improved bioactivity and/or ADME characteristics. The most common approaches for determining the structures of cyclic peptides are based on NMR-derived distance restraints obtained from NOESY or ROESY cross-peak intensities, and 3J-based dihedral restraints using the Karplus relationship. Unfortunately, these observables are often too weak, sparse, or degenerate to provide unequivocal, high-confidence solution structures, prompting us to investigate an alternative approach that relies only on 1H and 13C chemical shifts as experimental observables. This method, which we call conformational analysis from NMR and density-functional prediction of low-energy ensembles (CANDLE), uses molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to generate conformer families and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to predict their 1H and 13C chemical shifts. Iterative conformer searches and DFT energy calculations on a cyclic peptide-peptoid hybrid yielded Boltzmann ensembles whose predicted chemical shifts matched the experimental values better than any single conformer. For these compounds, CANDLE outperformed the classic NOE- and 3J-coupling-based approach by disambiguating similar β-turn types and also enabled the structural elucidation of the minor conformer. Through the use of chemical shifts, in conjunction with DFT and MD calculations, CANDLE can help illuminate conformational ensembles of cyclic peptides in solution.

Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa.

PubMed

Wagner, Peter J; Estabrook, George F

2014-11-18

Evolution provides many cases of apparent shifts in diversification associated with particular anatomical traits. Three general models connect these patterns to anatomical evolution: (i) elevated net extinction of taxa bearing particular traits, (ii) elevated net speciation of taxa bearing particular traits, and (iii) elevated evolvability expanding the range of anatomies available to some species. Trait-based diversification shifts predict elevated hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility (i.e., primitive→derived→highly derived sequences) among pairs of anatomical characters. The three specific models further predict (i) early loss of diversity for taxa retaining primitive conditions (elevated net extinction), (ii) increased diversification among later members of a clade (elevated net speciation), and (iii) increased disparity among later members in a clade (elevated evolvability). Analyses of 319 anatomical and stratigraphic datasets for fossil species and genera show that hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility exceeds the expectations of trait-independent diversification in the vast majority of cases, which was expected if trait-dependent diversification shifts are common. Excess hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility correlates with early loss of diversity for groups retaining primitive conditions rather than delayed bursts of diversity or disparity across entire clades. Cambrian clades (predominantly trilobites) alone fit null expectations well. However, it is not clear whether evolution was unusual among Cambrian taxa or only early trilobites. At least among post-Cambrian taxa, these results implicate models, such as competition and extinction selectivity/resistance, as major drivers of trait-based diversification shifts at the species and genus levels while contradicting the predictions of elevated net speciation and elevated evolvability models.

Examining the Latent Structure of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System.

PubMed

Karr, Justin E; Hofer, Scott M; Iverson, Grant L; Garcia-Barrera, Mauricio A

2018-05-04

The current study aimed to determine whether the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) taps into three executive function factors (inhibition, shifting, fluency) and to assess the relationship between these factors and tests of executive-related constructs less often measured in latent variable research: reasoning, abstraction, and problem solving. Participants included 425 adults from the D-KEFS standardization sample (20-49 years old; 50.1% female; 70.1% White). Eight alternative measurement models were compared based on model fit, with test scores assigned a priori to three factors: inhibition (Color-Word Interference, Tower), shifting (Trail Making, Sorting, Design Fluency), and fluency (Verbal/Design Fluency). The Twenty Questions, Word Context, and Proverb Tests were predicted in separate structural models. The three-factor model fit the data well (CFI = 0.938; RMSEA = 0.047), although a two-factor model, with shifting and fluency merged, fit similarly well (CFI = 0.929; RMSEA = 0.048). A bifactor model fit best (CFI = 0.977; RMSEA = 0.032) and explained the most variance in shifting indicators, but rarely converged among 5,000 bootstrapped samples. When the three first-order factors simultaneously predicted the criterion variables, only shifting was uniquely predictive (p < .05; R2 = 0.246-0.408). The bifactor significantly predicted all three criterion variables (p < .001; R2 = 0.141-242). Results supported a three-factor D-KEFS model (i.e., inhibition, shifting, and fluency), although shifting and fluency were highly related (r = 0.696). The bifactor showed superior fit, but converged less often than other models. Shifting best predicted tests of reasoning, abstraction, and problem solving. These findings support the validity of D-KEFS scores for measuring executive-related constructs and provide a framework through which clinicians can interpret D-KEFS results.

Protein Structure Validation and Refinement Using Amide Proton Chemical Shifts Derived from Quantum Mechanics

PubMed Central

Christensen, Anders S.; Linnet, Troels E.; Borg, Mikael; Boomsma, Wouter; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Hamelryck, Thomas; Jensen, Jan H.

2013-01-01

We present the ProCS method for the rapid and accurate prediction of protein backbone amide proton chemical shifts - sensitive probes of the geometry of key hydrogen bonds that determine protein structure. ProCS is parameterized against quantum mechanical (QM) calculations and reproduces high level QM results obtained for a small protein with an RMSD of 0.25 ppm (r = 0.94). ProCS is interfaced with the PHAISTOS protein simulation program and is used to infer statistical protein ensembles that reflect experimentally measured amide proton chemical shift values. Such chemical shift-based structural refinements, starting from high-resolution X-ray structures of Protein G, ubiquitin, and SMN Tudor Domain, result in average chemical shifts, hydrogen bond geometries, and trans-hydrogen bond (h3 JNC') spin-spin coupling constants that are in excellent agreement with experiment. We show that the structural sensitivity of the QM-based amide proton chemical shift predictions is needed to obtain this agreement. The ProCS method thus offers a powerful new tool for refining the structures of hydrogen bonding networks to high accuracy with many potential applications such as protein flexibility in ligand binding. PMID:24391900

Correlation of chemical shifts predicted by molecular dynamics simulations for partially disordered proteins.

PubMed

Karp, Jerome M; Eryilmaz, Ertan; Erylimaz, Ertan; Cowburn, David

2015-01-01

There has been a longstanding interest in being able to accurately predict NMR chemical shifts from structural data. Recent studies have focused on using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data as input for improved prediction. Here we examine the accuracy of chemical shift prediction for intein systems, which have regions of intrinsic disorder. We find that using MD simulation data as input for chemical shift prediction does not consistently improve prediction accuracy over use of a static X-ray crystal structure. This appears to result from the complex conformational ensemble of the disordered protein segments. We show that using accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations improves chemical shift prediction, suggesting that methods which better sample the conformational ensemble like aMD are more appropriate tools for use in chemical shift prediction for proteins with disordered regions. Moreover, our study suggests that data accurately reflecting protein dynamics must be used as input for chemical shift prediction in order to correctly predict chemical shifts in systems with disorder.

Quantum-mechanics-derived 13Cα chemical shift server (CheShift) for protein structure validation

PubMed Central

Vila, Jorge A.; Arnautova, Yelena A.; Martin, Osvaldo A.; Scheraga, Harold A.

2009-01-01

A server (CheShift) has been developed to predict 13Cα chemical shifts of protein structures. It is based on the generation of 696,916 conformations as a function of the φ, ψ, ω, χ1 and χ2 torsional angles for all 20 naturally occurring amino acids. Their 13Cα chemical shifts were computed at the DFT level of theory with a small basis set and extrapolated, with an empirically-determined linear regression formula, to reproduce the values obtained with a larger basis set. Analysis of the accuracy and sensitivity of the CheShift predictions, in terms of both the correlation coefficient R and the conformational-averaged rmsd between the observed and predicted 13Cα chemical shifts, was carried out for 3 sets of conformations: (i) 36 x-ray-derived protein structures solved at 2.3 Å or better resolution, for which sets of 13Cα chemical shifts were available; (ii) 15 pairs of x-ray and NMR-derived sets of protein conformations; and (iii) a set of decoys for 3 proteins showing an rmsd with respect to the x-ray structure from which they were derived of up to 3 Å. Comparative analysis carried out with 4 popular servers, namely SHIFTS, SHIFTX, SPARTA, and PROSHIFT, for these 3 sets of conformations demonstrated that CheShift is the most sensitive server with which to detect subtle differences between protein models and, hence, to validate protein structures determined by either x-ray or NMR methods, if the observed 13Cα chemical shifts are available. CheShift is available as a web server. PMID:19805131

Integrating Retraction Modeling Into an Atlas-Based Framework for Brain Shift Prediction

PubMed Central

Chen, Ishita; Ong, Rowena E.; Simpson, Amber L.; Sun, Kay; Thompson, Reid C.

2015-01-01

In recent work, an atlas-based statistical model for brain shift prediction, which accounts for uncertainty in the intraoperative environment, has been proposed. Previous work reported in the literature using this technique did not account for local deformation caused by surgical retraction. It is challenging to precisely localize the retractor location prior to surgery and the retractor is often moved in the course of the procedure. This paper proposes a technique that involves computing the retractor-induced brain deformation in the operating room through an active model solve and linearly superposing the solution with the precomputed deformation atlas. As a result, the new method takes advantage of the atlas-based framework’s accounting for uncertainties while also incorporating the effects of retraction with minimal intraoperative computing. This new approach was tested using simulation and phantom experiments. The results showed an improvement in average shift correction from 50% (ranging from 14 to 81%) for gravity atlas alone to 80% using the active solve retraction component (ranging from 73 to 85%). This paper presents a novel yet simple way to integrate retraction into the atlas-based brain shift computation framework. PMID:23864146

Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

PubMed

Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

Structure elucidation of the designer drug N-(1-amino-3,3-dimethyl-1-oxobutan-2-yl)-1-(5-fluoropentyl)-3-(4-fluorophenyl)-pyrazole-5-carboxamide and the relevance of predicted (13) C NMR shifts - a case study.

PubMed

Girreser, Ulrich; Rösner, Peter; Vasilev, Andrej

2016-07-01

The detailed structure elucidation process of the new cannabimimetic designer drug, N-(1-amino-3,3-dimethyl-1-oxobutan-2-yl)-1-(5-fluoropentyl)-3-(4-fluorophenyl)-pyrazole-5-carboxamide, with a highly substituted pyrazole skeleton, using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopic and mass spectrometric (MS) techniques is described. After a first analysis of the NMR spectra and comparison with 48 possible pyrazole and imidazole structures, a subset of six positional isomeric pyrazoles and six imidazoles remained conceivable. Four substituents of the heterocyclic skeleton were identified: a proton bound to a pyrazole ring carbon atom; a 5-fluoropentyl group; a 4-fluorophenyl substituent; and a carbamoyl group, which is N-substituted with a methyl residue carrying a tert.-butyl and a carbamoyl substituent. The 5-fluoropentyl residue is situated at the nitrogen ring atom. Additional NMR experiments like the (1) H,(13) C HMBC were performed, but due to the small number of signals based on long-range couplings, the comparison of predicted and observed (13) C chemical shifts became necessary. The open access Internet shift prediction programs NMRDB, NMRSHIFTDB2, and CSEARCH were employed for the prediction of (13) C shift values which allowed an efficient and unambiguous structure determination. For the identified N-(1-amino-3,3-dimethyl-1-oxobutan-2-yl)-1-(5-fluoropentyl)-3-(4-fluorophenyl)-pyrazole-5-carboxamide, the best agreement between predicted (13) C shifts and the observed chemical shifts and long-range couplings for the pyrazole ring carbon atoms, with a standard error of about 2 ppm, was found with each of the predictions. For the comparison of measured and predicted chemical shifts model compounds with simple substituents proved helpful. The identified compound is a homologue of AZ-037 which is offered by Internet suppliers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High capacity reversible watermarking for audio by histogram shifting and predicted error expansion.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Xie, Zhaoxin; Chen, Zuo

2014-01-01

Being reversible, the watermarking information embedded in audio signals can be extracted while the original audio data can achieve lossless recovery. Currently, the few reversible audio watermarking algorithms are confronted with following problems: relatively low SNR (signal-to-noise) of embedded audio; a large amount of auxiliary embedded location information; and the absence of accurate capacity control capability. In this paper, we present a novel reversible audio watermarking scheme based on improved prediction error expansion and histogram shifting. First, we use differential evolution algorithm to optimize prediction coefficients and then apply prediction error expansion to output stego data. Second, in order to reduce location map bits length, we introduced histogram shifting scheme. Meanwhile, the prediction error modification threshold according to a given embedding capacity can be computed by our proposed scheme. Experiments show that this algorithm improves the SNR of embedded audio signals and embedding capacity, drastically reduces location map bits length, and enhances capacity control capability.

Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

PubMed Central

Cunze, Sarah; Heydel, Felix; Tackenberg, Oliver

2013-01-01

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. PMID:23894290

Benchmark fragment-based 1H, 13C, 15N and 17O chemical shift predictions in molecular crystals†

PubMed Central

Hartman, Joshua D.; Kudla, Ryan A.; Day, Graeme M.; Mueller, Leonard J.; Beran, Gregory J. O.

2016-01-01

The performance of fragment-based ab initio 1H, 13C, 15N and 17O chemical shift predictions is assessed against experimental NMR chemical shift data in four benchmark sets of molecular crystals. Employing a variety of commonly used density functionals (PBE0, B3LYP, TPSSh, OPBE, PBE, TPSS), we explore the relative performance of cluster, two-body fragment, and combined cluster/fragment models. The hybrid density functionals (PBE0, B3LYP and TPSSh) generally out-perform their generalized gradient approximation (GGA)-based counterparts. 1H, 13C, 15N, and 17O isotropic chemical shifts can be predicted with root-mean-square errors of 0.3, 1.5, 4.2, and 9.8 ppm, respectively, using a computationally inexpensive electrostatically embedded two-body PBE0 fragment model. Oxygen chemical shieldings prove particularly sensitive to local many-body effects, and using a combined cluster/fragment model instead of the simple two-body fragment model decreases the root-mean-square errors to 7.6 ppm. These fragment-based model errors compare favorably with GIPAW PBE ones of 0.4, 2.2, 5.4, and 7.2 ppm for the same 1H, 13C, 15N, and 17O test sets. Using these benchmark calculations, a set of recommended linear regression parameters for mapping between calculated chemical shieldings and observed chemical shifts are provided and their robustness assessed using statistical cross-validation. We demonstrate the utility of these approaches and the reported scaling parameters on applications to 9-tertbutyl anthracene, several histidine co-crystals, benzoic acid and the C-nitrosoarene SnCl2(CH3)2(NODMA)2. PMID:27431490

Benchmark fragment-based (1)H, (13)C, (15)N and (17)O chemical shift predictions in molecular crystals.

PubMed

Hartman, Joshua D; Kudla, Ryan A; Day, Graeme M; Mueller, Leonard J; Beran, Gregory J O

2016-08-21

The performance of fragment-based ab initio(1)H, (13)C, (15)N and (17)O chemical shift predictions is assessed against experimental NMR chemical shift data in four benchmark sets of molecular crystals. Employing a variety of commonly used density functionals (PBE0, B3LYP, TPSSh, OPBE, PBE, TPSS), we explore the relative performance of cluster, two-body fragment, and combined cluster/fragment models. The hybrid density functionals (PBE0, B3LYP and TPSSh) generally out-perform their generalized gradient approximation (GGA)-based counterparts. (1)H, (13)C, (15)N, and (17)O isotropic chemical shifts can be predicted with root-mean-square errors of 0.3, 1.5, 4.2, and 9.8 ppm, respectively, using a computationally inexpensive electrostatically embedded two-body PBE0 fragment model. Oxygen chemical shieldings prove particularly sensitive to local many-body effects, and using a combined cluster/fragment model instead of the simple two-body fragment model decreases the root-mean-square errors to 7.6 ppm. These fragment-based model errors compare favorably with GIPAW PBE ones of 0.4, 2.2, 5.4, and 7.2 ppm for the same (1)H, (13)C, (15)N, and (17)O test sets. Using these benchmark calculations, a set of recommended linear regression parameters for mapping between calculated chemical shieldings and observed chemical shifts are provided and their robustness assessed using statistical cross-validation. We demonstrate the utility of these approaches and the reported scaling parameters on applications to 9-tert-butyl anthracene, several histidine co-crystals, benzoic acid and the C-nitrosoarene SnCl2(CH3)2(NODMA)2.

Cross-shift changes in FEV1 in relation to wood dust exposure: the implications of different exposure assessment methods

PubMed Central

Schlunssen, V; Sigsgaard, T; Schaumburg, I; Kromhout, H

2004-01-01

Background: Exposure-response analyses in occupational studies rely on the ability to distinguish workers with regard to exposures of interest. Aims: To evaluate different estimates of current average exposure in an exposure-response analysis on dust exposure and cross-shift decline in FEV1 among woodworkers. Methods: Personal dust samples (n = 2181) as well as data on lung function parameters were available for 1560 woodworkers from 54 furniture industries. The exposure to wood dust for each worker was calculated in eight different ways using individual measurements, group based exposure estimates, a weighted estimate of individual and group based exposure estimates, and predicted values from mixed models. Exposure-response relations on cross-shift changes in FEV1 and exposure estimates were explored. Results: A positive exposure-response relation between average dust exposure and cross-shift FEV1 was shown for non-smokers only and appeared to be most pronounced among pine workers. In general, the highest slope and standard error (SE) was revealed for grouping by a combination of task and factory size, the lowest slope and SE was revealed for estimates based on individual measurements, with the weighted estimate and the predicted values in between. Grouping by quintiles of average exposure for task and factory combinations revealed low slopes and high SE, despite a high contrast. Conclusion: For non-smokers, average dust exposure and cross-shift FEV1 were associated in an exposure dependent manner, especially among pine workers. This study confirms the consequences of using different exposure assessment strategies studying exposure-response relations. It is possible to optimise exposure assessment combining information from individual and group based exposure estimates, for instance by applying predicted values from mixed effects models. PMID:15377768

Effect of angular velocity on sensors based on morphology dependent resonances.

PubMed

Ali, Amir R; Ioppolo, Tindaro

2014-04-22

We carried out an analysis to investigate the morphology dependent optical resonances shift (MDR) of a rotating spherical resonator. The spinning resonator experiences an elastic deformation due to the centrifugal force acting on it, leading to a shift in its MDR. Experiments are also carried out to demonstrate the MDR shifts of a spinning polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microsphere. The experimental results agree well with the analytical prediction. These studies demonstrated that spinning sensor based on MDR may experience sufficient shift in the optical resonances, therefore interfering with its desirable operational sensor design. Also the results show that angular velocity sensors could be designed using this principle.

Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa

PubMed Central

Wagner, Peter J.; Estabrook, George F.

2014-01-01

Evolution provides many cases of apparent shifts in diversification associated with particular anatomical traits. Three general models connect these patterns to anatomical evolution: (i) elevated net extinction of taxa bearing particular traits, (ii) elevated net speciation of taxa bearing particular traits, and (iii) elevated evolvability expanding the range of anatomies available to some species. Trait-based diversification shifts predict elevated hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility (i.e., primitive→derived→highly derived sequences) among pairs of anatomical characters. The three specific models further predict (i) early loss of diversity for taxa retaining primitive conditions (elevated net extinction), (ii) increased diversification among later members of a clade (elevated net speciation), and (iii) increased disparity among later members in a clade (elevated evolvability). Analyses of 319 anatomical and stratigraphic datasets for fossil species and genera show that hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility exceeds the expectations of trait-independent diversification in the vast majority of cases, which was expected if trait-dependent diversification shifts are common. Excess hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility correlates with early loss of diversity for groups retaining primitive conditions rather than delayed bursts of diversity or disparity across entire clades. Cambrian clades (predominantly trilobites) alone fit null expectations well. However, it is not clear whether evolution was unusual among Cambrian taxa or only early trilobites. At least among post-Cambrian taxa, these results implicate models, such as competition and extinction selectivity/resistance, as major drivers of trait-based diversification shifts at the species and genus levels while contradicting the predictions of elevated net speciation and elevated evolvability models. PMID:25331898

Analyses of track shift under high-speed vehicle-track interaction : safety of high speed ground transportation systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

This report describes analysis tools to predict shift under high-speed vehicle- : track interaction. The analysis approach is based on two fundamental models : developed (as part of this research); the first model computes the track lateral : residua...

Spectral BRDF-based determination of proper measurement geometries to characterize color shift of special effect coatings.

PubMed

Ferrero, Alejandro; Rabal, Ana; Campos, Joaquín; Martínez-Verdú, Francisco; Chorro, Elísabet; Perales, Esther; Pons, Alicia; Hernanz, María Luisa

2013-02-01

A reduced set of measurement geometries allows the spectral reflectance of special effect coatings to be predicted for any other geometry. A physical model based on flake-related parameters has been used to determine nonredundant measurement geometries for the complete description of the spectral bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The analysis of experimental spectral BRDF was carried out by means of principal component analysis. From this analysis, a set of nine measurement geometries was proposed to characterize special effect coatings. It was shown that, for two different special effect coatings, these geometries provide a good prediction of their complete color shift.

Unraveling the meaning of chemical shifts in protein NMR.

PubMed

Berjanskii, Mark V; Wishart, David S

2017-11-01

Chemical shifts are among the most informative parameters in protein NMR. They provide wealth of information about protein secondary and tertiary structure, protein flexibility, and protein-ligand binding. In this report, we review the progress in interpreting and utilizing protein chemical shifts that has occurred over the past 25years, with a particular focus on the large body of work arising from our group and other Canadian NMR laboratories. More specifically, this review focuses on describing, assessing, and providing some historical context for various chemical shift-based methods to: (1) determine protein secondary and super-secondary structure; (2) derive protein torsion angles; (3) assess protein flexibility; (4) predict residue accessible surface area; (5) refine 3D protein structures; (6) determine 3D protein structures and (7) characterize intrinsically disordered proteins. This review also briefly covers some of the methods that we previously developed to predict chemical shifts from 3D protein structures and/or protein sequence data. It is hoped that this review will help to increase awareness of the considerable utility of NMR chemical shifts in structural biology and facilitate more widespread adoption of chemical-shift based methods by the NMR spectroscopists, structural biologists, protein biophysicists, and biochemists worldwide. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Biophysics in Canada, edited by Lewis Kay, John Baenziger, Albert Berghuis and Peter Tieleman. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microbial and sponge loops modify fish production in phase-shifting coral reefs.

PubMed

Silveira, Cynthia B; Silva-Lima, Arthur W; Francini-Filho, Ronaldo B; Marques, Jomar S M; Almeida, Marcelo G; Thompson, Cristiane C; Rezende, Carlos E; Paranhos, Rodolfo; Moura, Rodrigo L; Salomon, Paulo S; Thompson, Fabiano L

2015-10-01

Shifts from coral to algae dominance of corals reefs have been correlated to fish biomass loss and increased microbial metabolism. Here we investigated reef benthic and planktonic primary production, benthic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) release and bacterial growth efficiency in the Abrolhos Bank, South Atlantic. Benthic DOC release rates are higher while water column bacterial growth efficiency is lower at impacted reefs. A trophic model based on the benthic and planktonic primary production was able to predict the observed relative fish biomass in healthy reefs. In contrast, in impacted reefs, the observed omnivorous fish biomass is higher, while that of the herbivorous/coralivorous fish is lower than predicted by the primary production-based model. Incorporating recycling of benthic-derived carbon in the model through microbial and sponge loops explains the difference and predicts the relative fish biomass in both reef types. Increased benthic carbon release rates and bacterial carbon metabolism, but decreased bacterial growth efficiency could lead to carbon losses through respiration and account for the uncoupling of benthic and fish production in phase-shifting reefs. Carbon recycling by microbial and sponge loops seems to promote an increase of small-bodied fish productivity in phase-shifting coral reefs. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A cognitive approach to game usability and design: mental model development in novice real-time strategy gamers.

PubMed

Graham, John; Zheng, Liya; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2006-06-01

We developed a technique to observe and characterize a novice real-time-strategy (RTS) player's mental model as it shifts with experience. We then tested this technique using an off-the-shelf RTS game, EA Games Generals. Norman defined mental models as, "an internal representation of a target system that provides predictive and explanatory power to the operator." In the case of RTS games, the operator is the player and the target system is expressed by the relationships within the game. We studied five novice participants in laboratory-controlled conditions playing a RTS game. They played Command and Conquer Generals for 2 h per day over the course of 5 days. A mental model analysis was generated using player dissimilarity-ratings of the game's artificial intelligence (AI) agents analyzed using multidimensional scaling (MDS) statistical methods. We hypothesized that novices would begin with an impoverished model based on the visible physical characteristics of the game system. As they gained experience and insight, their mental models would shift and accommodate the functional characteristics of the AI agents. We found that all five of the novice participants began with the predicted physical-based mental model. However, while their models did qualitatively shift with experience, they did not necessarily change to the predicted functional-based model. This research presents an opportunity for the design of games that are guided by shifts in a player's mental model as opposed to the typical progression through successive performance levels.

Continuous wave operation of quantum cascade lasers with frequency-shifted feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lyakh, A., E-mail: arkadiy.lyakh@ucf.edu; NanoScience Technology Center, University of Central Florida, 12424 Research Pkwy, Orlando, FL 32826; College of Optics and Photonics, University of Central Florida, 304 Scorpius St, Orlando, FL 32826

2016-01-15

Operation of continuous wave quantum cascade lasers with a frequency-shifted feedback provided by an acousto-optic modulator is reported. Measured linewidth of 1.7 cm{sup −1} for these devices, under CW operating conditions, was in a good agreement with predictions of a model based on frequency-shifted feedback seeded by spontaneous emission. Linewidth broadening was observed for short sweep times, consistent with sound wave grating period variation across the illuminated area on the acousto-optic modulator. Standoff detection capability of the AOM-based QCL setup was demonstrated for several solid materials.

Measuring subjective sleepiness at work in hospital nurses: validation of a modified delivery format of the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale.

PubMed

Geiger Brown, Jeanne; Wieroney, Margaret; Blair, Lori; Zhu, Shijun; Warren, Joan; Scharf, Steven M; Hinds, Pamela S

2014-12-01

Sleepiness during the work shift is common and can be hazardous to workers and, in the case of nurses, to patients under their care. Thus, measuring sleepiness in occupational studies is an important component of workplace health and safety. The Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) is usually used as a momentary assessment of a respondent's state of sleepiness; however, end-of-shift measurement is sometimes preferred based on the study setting. We assessed the predictive validity of the KSS as an end-of-shift recall measurement, asking for "average" sleepiness over the shift and "highest" level of sleepiness during the shift. Hospital registered nurses (N=40) working 12-h shifts completed an end-of-shift diary over 4 weeks that included the National Aeronautical and Space Administration Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) work intensity items and the KSS (498 shifts over 4 weeks). Vigilant attention was assessed by measuring reaction time, lapses, and anticipations using a 10-min performance vigilance task (PVT) at the end of the shift. The Horne-Ostberg Questionnaire, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, General Sleep Disturbance Scale, and Cleveland Sleep Habits Questionnaire were also collected at baseline to assess factors that could be associated with higher sleepiness. We hypothesized that higher KSS scores would correlate with vigilant attention parameters reflective of sleepiness (slower reaction times and more lapses and anticipations on a performance vigilance task) and also with those factors known to produce higher sleepiness. These factors included the following: (1) working night shifts, especially for those with "morningness" trait; (2) working sequential night shifts; (3) having low physical and mental work demands and low time pressure; (4) having concomitant organic sleep disorders; and (5) having greater "trait" sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale). Linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models were used to test associations that could assess the predictive validity of this format of administering the KSS. Greater sleepiness, as measured by higher KSS scores, was found on shifts with nurses working night shift, the third sequential night compared to the first, those with sleep disorder symptoms (especially insomnia), and in nurses with trait sleepiness on the Epworth scale. Less sleepiness (lower KSS scores) was seen in shifts with a high level of time pressure and in nurses with a biologic predisposition to be more alert in the morning (morningness trait) who worked the day shift. We found partial support for using the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale in the recalled format based on our multiple tests of predictive validity.

The fluid events model: Predicting continuous task action change.

PubMed

Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney; Abbott, Robert G; Morgan, Brent; Fike, Karl; Tamplin, Andrea K

2015-01-01

The fluid events model is a behavioural model aimed at predicting the likelihood that people will change their actions in ongoing, interactive events. From this view, not only are people responding to aspects of the environment, but they are also basing responses on prior experiences. The fluid events model is an attempt to predict the likelihood that people will shift the type of actions taken within an event on a trial-by-trial basis, taking into account both event structure and experience-based factors. The event-structure factors are: (a) changes in event structure, (b) suitability of the current action to the event, and (c) time on task. The experience-based factors are: (a) whether a person has recently shifted actions, (b) how often a person has shifted actions, (c) whether there has been a dip in performance, and (d) a person's propensity to switch actions within the current task. The model was assessed using data from a series of tasks in which a person was producing responses to events. These were two stimulus-driven figure-drawing studies, a conceptually driven decision-making study, and a probability matching study using a standard laboratory task. This analysis predicted trial-by-trial action switching in a person-independent manner with an average accuracy of 70%, which reflects a 34% improvement above chance. In addition, correlations between overall switch rates and actual switch rates were remarkably high (mean r = .98). The experience-based factors played a more major role than the event-structure factors, but this might be attributable to the nature of the tasks.

Visual Attention during Spatial Language Comprehension

PubMed Central

Burigo, Michele; Knoeferle, Pia

2015-01-01

Spatial terms such as “above”, “in front of”, and “on the left of” are all essential for describing the location of one object relative to another object in everyday communication. Apprehending such spatial relations involves relating linguistic to object representations by means of attention. This requires at least one attentional shift, and models such as the Attentional Vector Sum (AVS) predict the direction of that attention shift, from the sausage to the box for spatial utterances such as “The box is above the sausage”. To the extent that this prediction generalizes to overt gaze shifts, a listener’s visual attention should shift from the sausage to the box. However, listeners tend to rapidly look at referents in their order of mention and even anticipate them based on linguistic cues, a behavior that predicts a converse attentional shift from the box to the sausage. Four eye-tracking experiments assessed the role of overt attention in spatial language comprehension by examining to which extent visual attention is guided by words in the utterance and to which extent it also shifts “against the grain” of the unfolding sentence. The outcome suggests that comprehenders’ visual attention is predominantly guided by their interpretation of the spatial description. Visual shifts against the grain occurred only when comprehenders had some extra time, and their absence did not affect comprehension accuracy. However, the timing of this reverse gaze shift on a trial correlated with that trial’s verification time. Thus, while the timing of these gaze shifts is subtly related to the verification time, their presence is not necessary for successful verification of spatial relations. PMID:25607540

Shifts in the trophic base of intermittent stream food webs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dekar, Matthew P.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; Huxel, G.R.

2009-01-01

Understanding spatial and temporal variation in the trophic base of stream food webs is critical for predicting population and community stability, and ecosystem function. We used stable isotope ratios (13C/12C, and 15N/14N) to characterize the trophic base of two streams in the Ozark Mountains of northwest Arkansas, U.S.A. We predicted that autochthonous resources would be more important during the spring and summer and allochthonous resources would be more important in the winter due to increased detritus inputs from the riparian zone during autumn leaf drop. We predicted that stream communities would demonstrate increased reliance on autochthonous resources at sites with larger watersheds and greater canopy openness. The study was conducted at three low-order sites in the Mulberry River Drainage (watershed area range: 81-232 km2) seasonally in 2006 and 2007. We used circular statistics to examine community-wide shifts in isotope space among fish and invertebrate consumers in relation to basal resources, including detritus and periphyton. Mixing models were used to quantify the relative contribution of autochthonous and allochthonous energy sources to individual invertebrate consumers. Significant isotopic shifts occurred but results varied by season and site indicating substantial variation in the trophic base of stream food webs. In terms of temporal variation, consumers shifted toward periphyton in the summer during periods of low discharge, but results varied during the interval between summer and winter. Our results did not demonstrate increased reliance on periphyton with increasing watershed area or canopy openness, and detritus was important at all the sites. In our study, riffle-pool geomorphology likely disrupted the expected spatial pattern and stream drying likely impacted the availability and distribution of basal resources.

Shape shifting predicts ontogenetic changes in metabolic scaling in diverse aquatic invertebrates

PubMed Central

Glazier, Douglas S.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, David

2015-01-01

Metabolism fuels all biological activities, and thus understanding its variation is fundamentally important. Much of this variation is related to body size, which is commonly believed to follow a 3/4-power scaling law. However, during ontogeny, many kinds of animals and plants show marked shifts in metabolic scaling that deviate from 3/4-power scaling predicted by general models. Here, we show that in diverse aquatic invertebrates, ontogenetic shifts in the scaling of routine metabolic rate from near isometry (bR = scaling exponent approx. 1) to negative allometry (bR < 1), or the reverse, are associated with significant changes in body shape (indexed by bL = the scaling exponent of the relationship between body mass and body length). The observed inverse correlations between bR and bL are predicted by metabolic scaling theory that emphasizes resource/waste fluxes across external body surfaces, but contradict theory that emphasizes resource transport through internal networks. Geometric estimates of the scaling of surface area (SA) with body mass (bA) further show that ontogenetic shifts in bR and bA are positively correlated. These results support new metabolic scaling theory based on SA influences that may be applied to ontogenetic shifts in bR shown by many kinds of animals and plants. PMID:25652833

A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species.

PubMed

Solow, Andrew; Beet, Andrew; Roll, Uri; Stone, Lewi

2014-02-01

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

Metabolic Model-Based Integration of Microbiome Taxonomic and Metabolomic Profiles Elucidates Mechanistic Links between Ecological and Metabolic Variation.

PubMed

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha; Theriot, Casey M; Young, Vincent B; Jansson, Janet K; Fredricks, David N; Borenstein, Elhanan

2016-01-01

Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community. Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites' abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in health and disease. Studies characterizing both the taxonomic composition and metabolic profile of various microbial communities are becoming increasingly common, yet new computational methods are needed to integrate and interpret these data in terms of known biological mechanisms. Here, we introduce an analytical framework to link species composition and metabolite measurements, using a simple model to predict the effects of community ecology on metabolite concentrations and evaluating whether these predictions agree with measured metabolomic profiles. We find that a surprisingly large proportion of metabolite variation in the vaginal microbiome can be predicted based on species composition (including dramatic shifts associated with disease), identify putative mechanisms underlying these predictions, and evaluate the roles of individual bacterial species and genes. Analysis of gut microbiome data using this framework recovers similar community metabolic trends. This framework lays the foundation for model-based multi-omic integrative studies, ultimately improving our understanding of microbial community metabolism.

Metabolic Model-Based Integration of Microbiome Taxonomic and Metabolomic Profiles Elucidates Mechanistic Links between Ecological and Metabolic Variation

PubMed Central

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha; Theriot, Casey M.; Young, Vincent B.; Jansson, Janet K.; Fredricks, David N.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community. Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites’ abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in health and disease. IMPORTANCE Studies characterizing both the taxonomic composition and metabolic profile of various microbial communities are becoming increasingly common, yet new computational methods are needed to integrate and interpret these data in terms of known biological mechanisms. Here, we introduce an analytical framework to link species composition and metabolite measurements, using a simple model to predict the effects of community ecology on metabolite concentrations and evaluating whether these predictions agree with measured metabolomic profiles. We find that a surprisingly large proportion of metabolite variation in the vaginal microbiome can be predicted based on species composition (including dramatic shifts associated with disease), identify putative mechanisms underlying these predictions, and evaluate the roles of individual bacterial species and genes. Analysis of gut microbiome data using this framework recovers similar community metabolic trends. This framework lays the foundation for model-based multi-omic integrative studies, ultimately improving our understanding of microbial community metabolism. PMID:27239563

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transverse Tension Fatigue Life Characterization Through Flexure Testing of Composite Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OBrien, T. Kevin; Chawan, Arun D.; Krueger, Ronald; Paris, Isabelle

2001-01-01

The transverse tension fatigue life of S2/8552 glass-epoxy and IM7/8552 carbon-epoxy was characterized using flexure tests of 90-degree laminates loaded in 3-point and 4-point bending. The influence of specimen polishing and specimen configuration on transverse tension fatigue life was examined using the glass-epoxy laminates. Results showed that 90-degree bend specimens with polished machined edges and polished tension-side surfaces, where bending failures where observed, had lower fatigue lives than unpolished specimens when cyclically loaded at equal stress levels. The influence of specimen thickness and the utility of a Weibull scaling law was examined using the carbon-epoxy laminates. The influence of test frequency on fatigue results was also documented for the 4-point bending configuration. A Weibull scaling law was used to predict the 4-point bending fatigue lives from the 3-point bending curve fit and vice-versa. Scaling was performed based on maximum cyclic stress level as well as fatigue life. The scaling laws based on stress level shifted the curve fit S-N characterizations in the desired direction, however, the magnitude of the shift was not adequate to accurately predict the fatigue lives. Furthermore, the scaling law based on fatigue life shifted the curve fit S-N characterizations in the opposite direction from measured values. Therefore, these scaling laws were not adequate for obtaining accurate predictions of the transverse tension fatigue lives.

A practical approach for predicting retention time shifts due to pressure and temperature gradients in ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Åsberg, Dennis; Chutkowski, Marcin; Leśko, Marek; Samuelsson, Jörgen; Kaczmarski, Krzysztof; Fornstedt, Torgny

2017-01-06

Large pressure gradients are generated in ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) using sub-2μm particles causing significant temperature gradients over the column due to viscous heating. These pressure and temperature gradients affect retention and ultimately result in important selectivity shifts. In this study, we developed an approach for predicting the retention time shifts due to these gradients. The approach is presented as a step-by-step procedure and it is based on empirical linear relationships describing how retention varies as a function of temperature and pressure and how the average column temperature increases with the flow rate. It requires only four experiments on standard equipment, is based on straightforward calculations, and is therefore easy to use in method development. The approach was rigorously validated against experimental data obtained with a quality control method for the active pharmaceutical ingredient omeprazole. The accuracy of retention time predictions was very good with relative errors always less than 1% and in many cases around 0.5% (n=32). Selectivity shifts observed between omeprazole and the related impurities when changing the flow rate could also be accurately predicted resulting in good estimates of the resolution between critical peak pairs. The approximations which the presented approach are based on were all justified. The retention factor as a function of pressure and temperature was studied in an experimental design while the temperature distribution in the column was obtained by solving the fundamental heat and mass balance equations for the different experimental conditions. We strongly believe that this approach is sufficiently accurate and experimentally feasible for this separation to be a valuable tool when developing a UHPLC method. After further validation with other separation systems, it could become a useful approach in UHPLC method development, especially in the pharmaceutical industry where demands are high for robustness and regulatory oversight. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Warming and Resource Availability Shift Food Web Structure and Metabolism

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Mary I.; Piehler, Michael F.; Leech, Dina M.; Anton, Andrea; Bruno, John F.

2009-01-01

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change. PMID:19707271

Hardiness, psychosocial factors and shift work tolerance among nurses - a 2-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Saksvik-Lehouillier, Ingvild; Bjorvatn, Bjørn; Magerøy, Nils; Pallesen, Ståle

2016-08-01

To examine the predictive power of the subfactors of hardiness (commitment, control and challenge) on shift work tolerance (measured with sleepiness, fatigue, anxiety and depression) over 2 years in nurses working shifts. We also investigated the direct effects of psychosocial variables such as role conflict, social support and fair leadership on shift work tolerance, as well as their moderating role on the relationship between hardiness and shift work tolerance. Several scholars have discussed the role of individual differences and psychosocial variables in predicting shift work tolerance. The conclusions are not clear. Longitudinal questionnaire study. A sample of Norwegian nurses employed in shift work including nights participated in this longitudinal questionnaire study: 1877 at baseline, 1228 at 1-year follow-up and 659 nurses at 2-year follow-up. Data were collected in three waves, first wave in 2008 and third in 2011 and were analysed with a series of hierarchical multiple regression analyses. We found that the subfactor commitment could predict fatigue over 1 year and anxiety and depression over 2 years. Challenge could predict anxiety over 1 year. Control was unrelated to shift work intolerance. Hardiness did not predict sleepiness. Social support, role conflict and fair leadership were important for some aspects of shift work tolerance; however, hardiness seemed to be more eminent for shift work tolerance than the psychosocial variables. Social support moderated the relationship between hardiness and shift work tolerance to some degree, but this interaction was weak. Hardiness can to some degree predict shift work tolerance over 2 years among nurses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PREDICTING CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS: MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MODEL RELIABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common ...

Shape shifting predicts ontogenetic changes in metabolic scaling in diverse aquatic invertebrates.

PubMed

Glazier, Douglas S; Hirst, Andrew G; Atkinson, David

2015-03-07

Metabolism fuels all biological activities, and thus understanding its variation is fundamentally important. Much of this variation is related to body size, which is commonly believed to follow a 3/4-power scaling law. However, during ontogeny, many kinds of animals and plants show marked shifts in metabolic scaling that deviate from 3/4-power scaling predicted by general models. Here, we show that in diverse aquatic invertebrates, ontogenetic shifts in the scaling of routine metabolic rate from near isometry (bR = scaling exponent approx. 1) to negative allometry (bR < 1), or the reverse, are associated with significant changes in body shape (indexed by bL = the scaling exponent of the relationship between body mass and body length). The observed inverse correlations between bR and bL are predicted by metabolic scaling theory that emphasizes resource/waste fluxes across external body surfaces, but contradict theory that emphasizes resource transport through internal networks. Geometric estimates of the scaling of surface area (SA) with body mass (bA) further show that ontogenetic shifts in bR and bA are positively correlated. These results support new metabolic scaling theory based on SA influences that may be applied to ontogenetic shifts in bR shown by many kinds of animals and plants. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Shift Verification and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pandya, Tara M.; Evans, Thomas M.; Davidson, Gregory G

2016-09-07

This documentation outlines the verification and validation of Shift for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). Five main types of problems were used for validation: small criticality benchmark problems; full-core reactor benchmarks for light water reactors; fixed-source coupled neutron-photon dosimetry benchmarks; depletion/burnup benchmarks; and full-core reactor performance benchmarks. We compared Shift results to measured data and other simulated Monte Carlo radiation transport code results, and found very good agreement in a variety of comparison measures. These include prediction of critical eigenvalue, radial and axial pin power distributions, rod worth, leakage spectra, and nuclide inventories over amore » burn cycle. Based on this validation of Shift, we are confident in Shift to provide reference results for CASL benchmarking.« less

Fragment-Based Electronic Structure Approach for Computing Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Chemical Shifts in Molecular Crystals.

PubMed

Hartman, Joshua D; Beran, Gregory J O

2014-11-11

First-principles chemical shielding tensor predictions play a critical role in studying molecular crystal structures using nuclear magnetic resonance. Fragment-based electronic structure methods have dramatically improved the ability to model molecular crystal structures and energetics using high-level electronic structure methods. Here, a many-body expansion fragment approach is applied to the calculation of chemical shielding tensors in molecular crystals. First, the impact of truncating the many-body expansion at different orders and the role of electrostatic embedding are examined on a series of molecular clusters extracted from molecular crystals. Second, the ability of these techniques to assign three polymorphic forms of the drug sulfanilamide to the corresponding experimental (13)C spectra is assessed. This challenging example requires discriminating among spectra whose (13)C chemical shifts differ by only a few parts per million (ppm) across the different polymorphs. Fragment-based PBE0/6-311+G(2d,p) level chemical shielding predictions correctly assign these three polymorphs and reproduce the sulfanilamide experimental (13)C chemical shifts with 1 ppm accuracy. The results demonstrate that fragment approaches are competitive with the widely used gauge-invariant projector augmented wave (GIPAW) periodic density functional theory calculations.

Applying a Dynamic Stomatal Optimization to Predict Shifts in the Functional Composition of Tropical Forests Under Increased Drought And CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. K.; Detto, M.; Pacala, S. W.

2017-12-01

The accurate prediction of tropical forest carbon fluxes is key to forecasting global climate, but forest responses to projected increases in CO2 and drought are highly uncertain. Here we present a dynamic optimization that derives the trajectory of stomatal conductance (gs) during drought, a key source of model uncertainty, from plant and soil water relations and the carbon economy of the plant hydraulic system. This optimization scheme is novel in two ways. First, by accounting for the ability of capacitance (i.e., the release of water from plant storage tissue; C) to buffer evaporative water loss and maintain gs during drought, this optimization captures both drought tolerant and avoidant hydraulic strategies. Second, by determining the optimal trajectory of plant and soil water potentials, this optimization quantifies species' impacts on the water available to competing plants. These advances allowed us to apply this optimization across the range of physiology trait values observed in tropical species to evaluate shifts in the competitively optimal trait values, or evolutionarily stable hydraulic strategy (ESS), under increased drought and CO2. Increasing the length of the dry season shifted the ESS towards more drought tolerant, rather than avoidant, trait values, and these shifts were larger for longer individual drought periods (i.e., more consecutive days without rainfall), even if the total time spent in drought was the same. Concurrently doubling the CO2 level reduced the magnitude of these shifts and slightly favored drought avoidant strategies under wet conditions. Overall, these analyses predicted that short, frequent droughts would allow elevated CO2 to shift the functional composition in tropical forests towards more drought avoidant species, while infrequent but long drought periods would shift the ESS to more drought tolerant trait values, despite increased CO2. Overall, these analyses quantified the impact of physiology traits on plant performance and competitive ability, and provide a mechanistic, trait-based approach to predict shifts in the functional composition of tropical forests under projected climatic conditions.

Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista, Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

PubMed Central

Langer, Martin R.; Weinmann, Anna E.; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M.; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year−1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

PubMed

Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

2013-01-01

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

Linear Hyperfine Tuning of Donor Spins in Silicon Using Hydrostatic Strain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansir, J.; Conti, P.; Zeng, Z.; Pla, J. J.; Bertet, P.; Swift, M. W.; Van de Walle, C. G.; Thewalt, M. L. W.; Sklenard, B.; Niquet, Y. M.; Morton, J. J. L.

2018-04-01

We experimentally study the coupling of group V donor spins in silicon to mechanical strain, and measure strain-induced frequency shifts that are linear in strain, in contrast to the quadratic dependence predicted by the valley repopulation model (VRM), and therefore orders of magnitude greater than that predicted by the VRM for small strains |ɛ |<10-5. Through both tight-binding and first principles calculations we find that these shifts arise from a linear tuning of the donor hyperfine interaction term by the hydrostatic component of strain and achieve semiquantitative agreement with the experimental values. Our results provide a framework for making quantitative predictions of donor spins in silicon nanostructures, such as those being used to develop silicon-based quantum processors and memories. The strong spin-strain coupling we measure (up to 150 GHz per strain, for Bi donors in Si) offers a method for donor spin tuning—shifting Bi donor electron spins by over a linewidth with a hydrostatic strain of order 10-6—as well as opportunities for coupling to mechanical resonators.

Predicting plasmonic coupling with Mie-Gans theory in silver nanoparticle arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjan, M.

2013-09-01

Plasmonic coupling is observed in the self-aligned arrays of silver nanoparticles grown on ripple-patterned substrate. Large differences observed in the plasmon resonance wavelength, measured and calculated using Mie-Gans theory, predict that strong plasmonic coupling exists in the nanoparticles arrays. Even though plasmonic coupling exists both along and across the arrays, but it is found to be much stronger along the arrays due to shorter interparticle gap and particle elongation. This effect is responsible for observed optical anisotropy in such arrays. Measured red-shift even in the transverse plasmon resonance mode with the increasing nanoparticles aspect ratio in the arrays, deviate from the prediction of Mie-Gans theory. This essentially means that plasmonic coupling is dominating over the shape anisotropy. Plasmon resonance tuning is presented by varying the plasmonic coupling systematically with nanoparticles aspect ratio and ripple wavelength. Plasmon resonance red-shifts with the increasing aspect ratio along the ripple, and blue-shifts with the increasing ripple wavelength across the ripple. Therefore, reported bottom-up approach for fabricating large area-coupled nanoparticle arrays can be used for various field enhancement-based plasmonic applications.

Determination of surgical variables for a brain shift correction pipeline using an Android application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijayan, Rohan; Conley, Rebekah H.; Thompson, Reid C.; Clements, Logan W.; Miga, Michael I.

2016-03-01

Brain shift describes the deformation that the brain undergoes from mechanical and physiological effects typically during a neurosurgical or neurointerventional procedure. With respect to image guidance techniques, brain shift has been shown to compromise the fidelity of these approaches. In recent work, a computational pipeline has been developed to predict "brain shift" based on preoperatively determined surgical variables (such as head orientation), and subsequently correct preoperative images to more closely match the intraoperative state of the brain. However, a clinical workflow difficulty in the execution of this pipeline has been acquiring the surgical variables by the neurosurgeon prior to surgery. In order to simplify and expedite this process, an Android, Java-based application designed for tablets was developed to provide the neurosurgeon with the ability to orient 3D computer graphic models of the patient's head, determine expected location and size of the craniotomy, and provide the trajectory into the tumor. These variables are exported for use as inputs for the biomechanical models of the preoperative computing phase for the brain shift correction pipeline. The accuracy of the application's exported data was determined by comparing it to data acquired from the physical execution of the surgeon's plan on a phantom head. Results indicated good overlap of craniotomy predictions, craniotomy centroid locations, and estimates of patient's head orientation with respect to gravity. However, improvements in the app interface and mock surgical setup are needed to minimize error.

On the Mechanism for a Gravity Effect Using Type 2 Superconductors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Glen A.

1999-01-01

In this paper, we formulate a percent mass change equation based on Woodward's transient mass shift and the Cavendish balance equations applied to superconductor Josephson junctions, A correction to the transient mass shift equation is presented due to the emission of the mass energy from the superconductor. The percentage of mass change predicted by the equation was estimated against the maximum percent mass change reported by Podkletnov in his gravity shielding experiments. An experiment is then discussed, which could shed light on the transient mass shift near superconductor and verify the corrected gravitational potential.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noecker, Cecilia; Eng, Alexander; Srinivasan, Sujatha

ABSTRACT Multiple molecular assays now enable high-throughput profiling of the ecology, metabolic capacity, and activity of the human microbiome. However, to date, analyses of such multi-omic data typically focus on statistical associations, often ignoring extensive prior knowledge of the mechanisms linking these various facets of the microbiome. Here, we introduce a comprehensive framework to systematically link variation in metabolomic data with community composition by utilizing taxonomic, genomic, and metabolic information. Specifically, we integrate available and inferred genomic data, metabolic network modeling, and a method for predicting community-wide metabolite turnover to estimate the biosynthetic and degradation potential of a given community.more » Our framework then compares variation in predicted metabolic potential with variation in measured metabolites’ abundances to evaluate whether community composition can explain observed shifts in the community metabolome, and to identify key taxa and genes contributing to the shifts. Focusing on two independent vaginal microbiome data sets, each pairing 16S community profiling with large-scale metabolomics, we demonstrate that our framework successfully recapitulates observed variation in 37% of metabolites. Well-predicted metabolite variation tends to result from disease-associated metabolism. We further identify several disease-enriched species that contribute significantly to these predictions. Interestingly, our analysis also detects metabolites for which the predicted variation negatively correlates with the measured variation, suggesting environmental control points of community metabolism. Applying this framework to gut microbiome data sets reveals similar trends, including prediction of bile acid metabolite shifts. This framework is an important first step toward a system-level multi-omic integration and an improved mechanistic understanding of the microbiome activity and dynamics in health and disease. IMPORTANCEStudies characterizing both the taxonomic composition and metabolic profile of various microbial communities are becoming increasingly common, yet new computational methods are needed to integrate and interpret these data in terms of known biological mechanisms. Here, we introduce an analytical framework to link species composition and metabolite measurements, using a simple model to predict the effects of community ecology on metabolite concentrations and evaluating whether these predictions agree with measured metabolomic profiles. We find that a surprisingly large proportion of metabolite variation in the vaginal microbiome can be predicted based on species composition (including dramatic shifts associated with disease), identify putative mechanisms underlying these predictions, and evaluate the roles of individual bacterial species and genes. Analysis of gut microbiome data using this framework recovers similar community metabolic trends. This framework lays the foundation for model-based multi-omic integrative studies, ultimately improving our understanding of microbial community metabolism.« less

Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

Treesearch

Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2006-01-01

Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

PubMed

Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Gillingham, Phillipa K; Britton, J Robert

2016-09-01

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the pKa and stability of organic acids and bases at an oil-water interface.

PubMed

Andersson, M P; Olsson, M H M; Stipp, S L S

2014-06-10

We have used density functional theory and the implicit solvent model, COSMO-RS, to investigate how the acidity constant, pKa, of organic acids and bases adsorbed at the organic compound-aqueous solution interface changes, compared to its value in the aqueous phase. The pKa determine the surface charge density of the molecules that accumulate at the fluid-fluid interface. We have estimated the pKa by comparing the stability of the protonated and unprotonated forms of a series of molecules in the bulk aqueous solution and at an interface where parts of each molecule reside in the hydrophobic phase and the rest remains in the hydrophilic phase. We found that the pKa for acids is shifted by ∼1 pH unit to higher values compared to the bulk water pKa, whereas they are shifted to lower values by a similar amount for bases. Because this pKa shift is similar in magnitude for each of the molecules studied, we propose that the pKa for molecules at a water-organic compound interface can easily be predicted by adding a small shift to the aqueous pKa. This shift is general and correlates with the functional group. We also found that the relative composition of molecules at the fluid-fluid interface is not the same as in the bulk. For example, species such as carboxylic acids are enriched at the interface, where they can dominate surface properties, even when they are a modest component in the bulk fluid. For high surface concentrations of carboxylic acid groups at an interface, such as a self-assembled monolayer, we have demonstrated that the pKa depends on the degree of deprotonation through direct hydrogen bonding between protonated and deprotonated acidic headgroups.

Integrating spatial modeling, climate change scenarios, invasive species risk, and public perceptions to inform sustainable management in mixed hemlock-hardwood forests in Maine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunckel, Kathleen Lois

Introduced invasive pests and climate change are perhaps the most important and persistent catalyst for changes in forest composition. Infestation and outbreak of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) along the eastern coast of the USA, has led to widespread loss of hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), and a shift in tree species composition towards hardwood stands. Maine's forest dominated landscape and position at the leading edge of the HWA invasion provides an excellent opportunity to inform sustainable forest management (SFM) practices by using spatially explicit models to predict current tree species distribution, future range shifts, and solicit broad based feedback from Maine residents about forest management goals and preferences. This paper describes an interdisciplinary study of the ecological and social implications of changes in mixed northern hardwood forests due to disturbance. A two stage mapping approach was used where presence/absence of eastern hemlock is predicted with an overall accuracy of 85% and the continuous distribution (% basal area) was predicted with an accuracy of 83%. Given the importance of climate variables in predicting eastern hemlock, forecasts of future range shifts are possible using data generated through climate scenarios. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset was used to model future shifts in the geographic range of eastern hemlock throughout the state of Maine. The results clearly describe a significant shift in eastern hemlock range with gains in total geographic area that is suitable habitat. Sustaining forest systems across the landscape requires not only ecological knowledge, but also the integration of multiple socio-economic criteria as well, including data obtained through broad-based public participation approaches. Here, 3000 Maine residents were surveyed and asked how they: (1) value local forests; (2) view forest management goals and threats to forest ecosystems; and (3) evaluate alternative treatment options for the control of invasive species - in this case, HWA. Results suggest that despite Maine's historic dependence on forest products, resident values regarding forests are complex and display agreement with both psycho-spiritual and anthropocentric motivations.

Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. D.

1985-08-01

A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Z. D.

1985-01-01

A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

Response to a pure tone in a nonlinear mechanical-electrical-acoustical model of the cochlea.

PubMed

Meaud, Julien; Grosh, Karl

2012-03-21

In this article, a nonlinear mathematical model is developed based on the physiology of the cochlea of the guinea pig. The three-dimensional intracochlear fluid dynamics are coupled to a micromechanical model of the organ of Corti and to electrical potentials in the cochlear ducts and outer hair cells (OHC). OHC somatic electromotility is modeled by linearized piezoelectric relations whereas the OHC hair-bundle mechanoelectrical transduction current is modeled as a nonlinear function of the hair-bundle deflection. The steady-state response of the cochlea to a single tone is simulated in the frequency domain using an alternating frequency time scheme. Compressive nonlinearity, harmonic distortion, and DC shift on the basilar membrane (BM), tectorial membrane (TM), and OHC potentials are predicted using a single set of parameters. The predictions of the model are verified by comparing simulations to available in vivo experimental data for basal cochlear mechanics. In particular, the model predicts more amplification on the reticular lamina (RL) side of the cochlear partition than on the BM, which replicates recent measurements. Moreover, small harmonic distortion and DC shifts are predicted on the BM, whereas more significant harmonic distortion and DC shifts are predicted in the RL and TM displacements and in the OHC potentials. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rapid and reliable protein structure determination via chemical shift threading.

PubMed

Hafsa, Noor E; Berjanskii, Mark V; Arndt, David; Wishart, David S

2018-01-01

Protein structure determination using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy can be both time-consuming and labor intensive. Here we demonstrate how chemical shift threading can permit rapid, robust, and accurate protein structure determination using only chemical shift data. Threading is a relatively old bioinformatics technique that uses a combination of sequence information and predicted (or experimentally acquired) low-resolution structural data to generate high-resolution 3D protein structures. The key motivations behind using NMR chemical shifts for protein threading lie in the fact that they are easy to measure, they are available prior to 3D structure determination, and they contain vital structural information. The method we have developed uses not only sequence and chemical shift similarity but also chemical shift-derived secondary structure, shift-derived super-secondary structure, and shift-derived accessible surface area to generate a high quality protein structure regardless of the sequence similarity (or lack thereof) to a known structure already in the PDB. The method (called E-Thrifty) was found to be very fast (often < 10 min/structure) and to significantly outperform other shift-based or threading-based structure determination methods (in terms of top template model accuracy)-with an average TM-score performance of 0.68 (vs. 0.50-0.62 for other methods). Coupled with recent developments in chemical shift refinement, these results suggest that protein structure determination, using only NMR chemical shifts, is becoming increasingly practical and reliable. E-Thrifty is available as a web server at http://ethrifty.ca .

Quantifying patterns of change in marine ecosystem response to multiple pressures.

PubMed

Large, Scott I; Fay, Gavin; Friedland, Kevin D; Link, Jason S

2015-01-01

The ability to understand and ultimately predict ecosystem response to multiple pressures is paramount to successfully implement ecosystem-based management. Thresholds shifts and nonlinear patterns in ecosystem responses can be used to determine reference points that identify levels of a pressure that may drastically alter ecosystem status, which can inform management action. However, quantifying ecosystem reference points has proven elusive due in large part to the multi-dimensional nature of both ecosystem pressures and ecosystem responses. We used ecological indicators, synthetic measures of ecosystem status and functioning, to enumerate important ecosystem attributes and to reduce the complexity of the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME). Random forests were used to quantify the importance of four environmental and four anthropogenic pressure variables to the value of ecological indicators, and to quantify shifts in aggregate ecological indicator response along pressure gradients. Anthropogenic pressure variables were critical defining features and were able to predict an average of 8-13% (up to 25-66% for individual ecological indicators) of the variation in ecological indicator values, whereas environmental pressures were able to predict an average of 1-5 % (up to 9-26% for individual ecological indicators) of ecological indicator variation. Each pressure variable predicted a different suite of ecological indicator's variation and the shapes of ecological indicator responses along pressure gradients were generally nonlinear. Threshold shifts in ecosystem response to exploitation, the most important pressure variable, occurred when commercial landings were 20 and 60% of total surveyed biomass. Although present, threshold shifts in ecosystem response to environmental pressures were much less important, which suggests that anthropogenic pressures have significantly altered the ecosystem structure and functioning of the NES LME. Gradient response curves provide ecologically informed transformations of pressure variables to explain patterns of ecosystem structure and functioning. By concurrently identifying thresholds for a suite of ecological indicator responses to multiple pressures, we demonstrate that ecosystem reference points can be evaluated and used to support ecosystem-based management.

Predicting the stage shift as a result of breast cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries: a proof of concept.

PubMed

Zelle, Sten G; Baltussen, Rob; Otten, Johannes D M; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A M; van Schoor, Guido; Broeders, Mireille J M

2015-03-01

To provide proof of concept for a simple model to estimate the stage shift as a result of breast cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Stage shift is an essential early detection indicator and an important proxy for the performance and possible further impact of screening programmes. Our model could help LIMCs to choose appropriate control strategies. We assessed our model concept in three steps. First, we calculated the proportional performance rates (i.e. index number Z) based on 16 screening rounds of the Nijmegen Screening Program (384,884 screened women). Second, we used linear regression to assess the association between Z and the amount of stage shift observed in the programme. Third, we hypothesized how Z could be used to estimate the stage shift as a result of breast cancer screening in LMICs. Stage shifts can be estimated by the proportional performance rates (Zs) using linear regression. Zs calculated for each screening round are highly associated with the observed stage shifts in the Nijmegen Screening Program (Pearson's R: 0.798, R square: 0.637). Our model can predict the stage shifts in the Nijmegen Screening Program, and could be applied to settings with different characteristics, although it should not be straightforwardly used to estimate the impact on mortality. Further research should investigate the extrapolation of our model to other settings. As stage shift is an essential screening performance indicator, our model could provide important information on the performance of breast cancer screening programmes that LMICs consider implementing. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

User manual of the CATSS system (version 1.0) communication analysis tool for space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsang, C. S.; Su, Y. T.; Lindsey, W. C.

1983-01-01

The Communication Analysis Tool for the Space Station (CATSS) is a FORTRAN language software package capable of predicting the communications links performance for the Space Station (SS) communication and tracking (C & T) system. An interactive software package was currently developed to run on the DEC/VAX computers. The CATSS models and evaluates the various C & T links of the SS, which includes the modulation schemes such as Binary-Phase-Shift-Keying (BPSK), BPSK with Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (PN/BPSK), and M-ary Frequency-Shift-Keying with Frequency Hopping (FH/MFSK). Optical Space Communication link is also included. CATSS is a C & T system engineering tool used to predict and analyze the system performance for different link environment. Identification of system weaknesses is achieved through evaluation of performance with varying system parameters. System tradeoff for different values of system parameters are made based on the performance prediction.

Field-scale prediction of enhanced DNAPL dissolution based on partitioning tracers.

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Annable, Michael D; Jawitz, James W

2013-09-01

The equilibrium streamtube model (EST) has demonstrated the ability to accurately predict dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) dissolution in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. Here the model is applied to predict DNAPL dissolution at a tetrachloroethylene (PCE)-contaminated dry cleaner site, located in Jacksonville, Florida. The EST model is an analytical solution with field-measurable input parameters. Measured data from a field-scale partitioning tracer test were used to parameterize the EST model and the predicted PCE dissolution was compared to measured data from an in-situ ethanol flood. In addition, a simulated partitioning tracer test from a calibrated, three-dimensional, spatially explicit multiphase flow model (UTCHEM) was also used to parameterize the EST analytical solution. The EST ethanol prediction based on both the field partitioning tracer test and the simulation closely matched the total recovery well field ethanol data with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency E=0.96 and 0.90, respectively. The EST PCE predictions showed a peak shift to earlier arrival times for models based on either field-measured or simulated partitioning tracer tests, resulting in poorer matches to the field PCE data in both cases. The peak shifts were concluded to be caused by well screen interval differences between the field tracer test and ethanol flood. Both the EST model and UTCHEM were also used to predict PCE aqueous dissolution under natural gradient conditions, which has a much less complex flow pattern than the forced-gradient double five spot used for the ethanol flood. The natural gradient EST predictions based on parameters determined from tracer tests conducted with a complex flow pattern underestimated the UTCHEM-simulated natural gradient total mass removal by 12% after 170 pore volumes of water flushing indicating that some mass was not detected by the tracers likely due to stagnation zones in the flow field. These findings highlight the important influence of well configuration and the associated flow patterns on dissolution. © 2013.

Field-scale prediction of enhanced DNAPL dissolution based on partitioning tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fang; Annable, Michael D.; Jawitz, James W.

2013-09-01

The equilibrium streamtube model (EST) has demonstrated the ability to accurately predict dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) dissolution in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. Here the model is applied to predict DNAPL dissolution at a tetrachloroethylene (PCE)-contaminated dry cleaner site, located in Jacksonville, Florida. The EST model is an analytical solution with field-measurable input parameters. Measured data from a field-scale partitioning tracer test were used to parameterize the EST model and the predicted PCE dissolution was compared to measured data from an in-situ ethanol flood. In addition, a simulated partitioning tracer test from a calibrated, three-dimensional, spatially explicit multiphase flow model (UTCHEM) was also used to parameterize the EST analytical solution. The EST ethanol prediction based on both the field partitioning tracer test and the simulation closely matched the total recovery well field ethanol data with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency E = 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. The EST PCE predictions showed a peak shift to earlier arrival times for models based on either field-measured or simulated partitioning tracer tests, resulting in poorer matches to the field PCE data in both cases. The peak shifts were concluded to be caused by well screen interval differences between the field tracer test and ethanol flood. Both the EST model and UTCHEM were also used to predict PCE aqueous dissolution under natural gradient conditions, which has a much less complex flow pattern than the forced-gradient double five spot used for the ethanol flood. The natural gradient EST predictions based on parameters determined from tracer tests conducted with a complex flow pattern underestimated the UTCHEM-simulated natural gradient total mass removal by 12% after 170 pore volumes of water flushing indicating that some mass was not detected by the tracers likely due to stagnation zones in the flow field. These findings highlight the important influence of well configuration and the associated flow patterns on dissolution.

An evaluation of transport mode shift policies on transport-related physical activity through simulations based on random forests.

PubMed

Brondeel, Ruben; Kestens, Yan; Chaix, Basile

2017-10-23

Physical inactivity is widely recognized as one of the leading causes of mortality, and transport accounts for a large part of people's daily physical activity. This study develops a simulation approach to evaluate the impact of the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan (2010-2020) on physical activity, under the hypothesis that the intended transport mode shifts are realized. Based on the Global Transport Survey (2010, n = 21,332) and on the RECORD GPS Study (2012-2013, n = 229) from the French capital region of Paris (Ile-de-France), a simulation method was designed and tested. The simulation method used accelerometer data and random forest models to predict the impact of the transport mode shifts anticipated in the Mobility Plan on transport-related moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (T-MVPA). The transport mode shifts include less private motorized trips in favor of more public transport, walking, and biking trips. The simulation model indicated a mean predicted increase of 2 min per day of T-MVPA, in case the intended transport mode shifts in the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan were realized. The positive effect of the transport mode shifts on T-MVPA would, however, be larger for people with a higher level of education. This heterogeneity in the positive effect would further increase the existing inequality in transport-related physical activity by educational level. The method presented in this paper showed a significant increase in transport-related physical activity in case the intended mode shifts in the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan were realized. This simulation method could be applied on other important health outcomes, such as exposure to noise or air pollution, making it a useful tool to anticipate the health impact of transport interventions or policies.

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Validation of model-based brain shift correction in neurosurgery via intraoperative magnetic resonance imaging: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ma; Frisken, Sarah F.; Weis, Jared A.; Clements, Logan W.; Unadkat, Prashin; Thompson, Reid C.; Golby, Alexandra J.; Miga, Michael I.

2017-03-01

The quality of brain tumor resection surgery is dependent on the spatial agreement between preoperative image and intraoperative anatomy. However, brain shift compromises the aforementioned alignment. Currently, the clinical standard to monitor brain shift is intraoperative magnetic resonance (iMR). While iMR provides better understanding of brain shift, its cost and encumbrance is a consideration for medical centers. Hence, we are developing a model-based method that can be a complementary technology to address brain shift in standard resections, with resource-intensive cases as referrals for iMR facilities. Our strategy constructs a deformation `atlas' containing potential deformation solutions derived from a biomechanical model that account for variables such as cerebrospinal fluid drainage and mannitol effects. Volumetric deformation is estimated with an inverse approach that determines the optimal combinatory `atlas' solution fit to best match measured surface deformation. Accordingly, preoperative image is updated based on the computed deformation field. This study is the latest development to validate our methodology with iMR. Briefly, preoperative and intraoperative MR images of 2 patients were acquired. Homologous surface points were selected on preoperative and intraoperative scans as measurement of surface deformation and used to drive the inverse problem. To assess the model accuracy, subsurface shift of targets between preoperative and intraoperative states was measured and compared to model prediction. Considering subsurface shift above 3 mm, the proposed strategy provides an average shift correction of 59% across 2 cases. While further improvements in both the model and ability to validate with iMR are desired, the results reported are encouraging.

The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

PubMed Central

Razgour, Orly; Juste, Javier; Ibáñez, Carlos; Kiefer, Andreas; Rebelo, Hugo; Puechmaille, Sébastien J; Arlettaz, Raphael; Burke, Terry; Dawson, Deborah A; Beaumont, Mark; Jones, Gareth; Wiens, John

2013-01-01

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts. PMID:23890483

A Bayesian Account of Vocal Adaptation to Pitch-Shifted Auditory Feedback

PubMed Central

Hahnloser, Richard H. R.

2017-01-01

Motor systems are highly adaptive. Both birds and humans compensate for synthetically induced shifts in the pitch (fundamental frequency) of auditory feedback stemming from their vocalizations. Pitch-shift compensation is partial in the sense that large shifts lead to smaller relative compensatory adjustments of vocal pitch than small shifts. Also, compensation is larger in subjects with high motor variability. To formulate a mechanistic description of these findings, we adapt a Bayesian model of error relevance. We assume that vocal-auditory feedback loops in the brain cope optimally with known sensory and motor variability. Based on measurements of motor variability, optimal compensatory responses in our model provide accurate fits to published experimental data. Optimal compensation correctly predicts sensory acuity, which has been estimated in psychophysical experiments as just-noticeable pitch differences. Our model extends the utility of Bayesian approaches to adaptive vocal behaviors. PMID:28135267

Applying the age-shift approach to model responses to midrotation fertilization

Treesearch

Colleen A. Carlson; Thomas R. Fox; H. Lee Allen; Timothy J. Albaugh

2010-01-01

Growth and yield models used to evaluate midrotation fertilization economics require adjustments to account for the typically observed responses. This study investigated the use of age-shift models to predict midrotation fertilizer responses. Age-shift prediction models were constructed from a regional study consisting of 43 installations of a nitrogen (N) by...

Shift work and age as interactive predictors of body mass index among offshore workers.

PubMed

Parkes, Katharine R

2002-02-01

This study investigated shift pattern (day shifts versus day-night rotation) and its interactions with age, and with years of shiftwork exposure, as predictors of body mass index (BMI). Survey data were collected from offshore personnel working day shifts (N=787) or day-night shifts (N=787); information was obtained about shift pattern and years of shiftwork exposure, height, weight, demographic factors, and smoking habits. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to test a model in which BMI was predicted by additive and interactive effects of shift pattern, age, and exposure years with control for confounding variables. In a multivariate analysis (controlling for job type, education and smoking), BMI was predicted by the main effects of age and years of shiftwork exposure. Shift pattern was not significant as a main effect, but it interacted significantly with the curvilinear age term and with the linear and curvilinear components of shiftwork exposure. In the day shift group, age but not exposure predicted BMI; the opposite was true of the day-night shift group. The increase in BMI with an increase in age and exposure years was steeper for the day-night shift group than for the day shift group. The significant interaction effects found in this study were consistent with the view that continued exposure to day-night shift work gives rise to increases in BMI, over and above the normative effects of ageing on BMI shown by day-shift workers.

Toward a preoperative planning tool for brain tumor resection therapies.

PubMed

Coffey, Aaron M; Miga, Michael I; Chen, Ishita; Thompson, Reid C

2013-01-01

Neurosurgical procedures involving tumor resection require surgical planning such that the surgical path to the tumor is determined to minimize the impact on healthy tissue and brain function. This work demonstrates a predictive tool to aid neurosurgeons in planning tumor resection therapies by finding an optimal model-selected patient orientation that minimizes lateral brain shift in the field of view. Such orientations may facilitate tumor access and removal, possibly reduce the need for retraction, and could minimize the impact of brain shift on image-guided procedures. In this study, preoperative magnetic resonance images were utilized in conjunction with pre- and post-resection laser range scans of the craniotomy and cortical surface to produce patient-specific finite element models of intraoperative shift for 6 cases. These cases were used to calibrate a model (i.e., provide general rules for the application of patient positioning parameters) as well as determine the current model-based framework predictive capabilities. Finally, an objective function is proposed that minimizes shift subject to patient position parameters. Patient positioning parameters were then optimized and compared to our neurosurgeon as a preliminary study. The proposed model-driven brain shift minimization objective function suggests an overall reduction of brain shift by 23 % over experiential methods. This work recasts surgical simulation from a trial-and-error process to one where options are presented to the surgeon arising from an optimization of surgical goals. To our knowledge, this is the first realization of an evaluative tool for surgical planning that attempts to optimize surgical approach by means of shift minimization in this manner.

Insects Overshoot the Expected Upslope Shift Caused by Climate Warming

PubMed Central

Bässler, Claus; Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2013-01-01

Along elevational gradients, climate warming may lead to an upslope shift of the lower and upper range margin of organisms. A recent meta-analysis concluded that these shifts are species specific and considerably differ among taxonomic lineages. We used the opportunity to compare upper range margins of five lineages (plants, beetles, flies, hymenoptera, and birds) between 1902–1904 and 2006–2007 within one region (Bavarian Forest, Central Europe). Based on the increase in the regional mean annual temperature during this period and the regional lapse rate, the upslope shift is expected to be between 51 and 201 m. Averaged across species within lineages, the range margin of all animal lineages shifted upslope, but that of plants did not. For animals, the observed shifts were probably due to shifts in temperature and not to changes in habitat conditions. The range margin of plants is therefore apparently not constrained by temperature, a result contrasting recent findings. The mean shift of birds (165 m) was within the predicted range and consistent with a recent global meta-analysis. However, the upslope shift of the three insect lineages (>260 m) exceeded the expected shift even after considering several sources of uncertainty, which indicated a non-linear response to temperature. Our analysis demonstrated broad differences among lineages in their response to climate change even within one region. Furthermore, on the considered scale, the response of ectothermic animals was not consistent with expectations based on shifts in the mean annual temperature. Irrespective of the reasons for the overshooting of the response of the insects, these shifts lead to reorganizations in the composition of assemblages with consequences for ecosystem processes. PMID:23762439

Insects overshoot the expected upslope shift caused by climate warming.

PubMed

Bässler, Claus; Hothorn, Torsten; Brandl, Roland; Müller, Jörg

2013-01-01

Along elevational gradients, climate warming may lead to an upslope shift of the lower and upper range margin of organisms. A recent meta-analysis concluded that these shifts are species specific and considerably differ among taxonomic lineages. We used the opportunity to compare upper range margins of five lineages (plants, beetles, flies, hymenoptera, and birds) between 1902-1904 and 2006-2007 within one region (Bavarian Forest, Central Europe). Based on the increase in the regional mean annual temperature during this period and the regional lapse rate, the upslope shift is expected to be between 51 and 201 m. Averaged across species within lineages, the range margin of all animal lineages shifted upslope, but that of plants did not. For animals, the observed shifts were probably due to shifts in temperature and not to changes in habitat conditions. The range margin of plants is therefore apparently not constrained by temperature, a result contrasting recent findings. The mean shift of birds (165 m) was within the predicted range and consistent with a recent global meta-analysis. However, the upslope shift of the three insect lineages (>260 m) exceeded the expected shift even after considering several sources of uncertainty, which indicated a non-linear response to temperature. Our analysis demonstrated broad differences among lineages in their response to climate change even within one region. Furthermore, on the considered scale, the response of ectothermic animals was not consistent with expectations based on shifts in the mean annual temperature. Irrespective of the reasons for the overshooting of the response of the insects, these shifts lead to reorganizations in the composition of assemblages with consequences for ecosystem processes.

Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate-driven species migrations.

PubMed

Feeley, Kenneth J; Hurtado, Johanna; Saatchi, Sassan; Silman, Miles R; Clark, David B

2013-11-01

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1-ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70-2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate-driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr(-1) (95% CI = 0.0005-0.0132 °C yr(-1) ). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr(-1) , migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction and measurement of radiation damage to CMOS devices on board spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliff, R. A.; Danchenko, V.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Sing, M.; Brucker, G. J.; Ohanian, R. S.

1976-01-01

The initial results obtained from the Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductors Radiation Effects Measurement experiment are presented. Predictions of radiation damage to C-MOS devices are based on standard environment models and computational techniques. A comparison of the shifts in CMOS threshold potentials, that is, those measured in space to those obtained from the on the ground simulation experiment with Co 60, indicated that the measured space damage is greater than predicted by a factor of two for shields thicker than 100 mils (2.54 mm), but agrees well with predictions for the thinner shields.

Phase noise optimization in temporal phase-shifting digital holography with partial coherence light sources and its application in quantitative cell imaging.

PubMed

Remmersmann, Christian; Stürwald, Stephan; Kemper, Björn; Langehanenberg, Patrik; von Bally, Gert

2009-03-10

In temporal phase-shifting-based digital holographic microscopy, high-resolution phase contrast imaging requires optimized conditions for hologram recording and phase retrieval. To optimize the phase resolution, for the example of a variable three-step algorithm, a theoretical analysis on statistical errors, digitalization errors, uncorrelated errors, and errors due to a misaligned temporal phase shift is carried out. In a second step the theoretically predicted results are compared to the measured phase noise obtained from comparative experimental investigations with several coherent and partially coherent light sources. Finally, the applicability for noise reduction is demonstrated by quantitative phase contrast imaging of pancreas tumor cells.

Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities - Frequency variability in the tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

1992-01-01

Two techniques were developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters that overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant 'blue shift' of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on 'global' internal-wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12 deg of the equator.

A method for probing the mutational landscape of amyloid structure.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Charles W; Waldispühl, Jérôme; Lis, Mieszko; Halfmann, Randal; Devadas, Srinivas; Lindquist, Susan; Berger, Bonnie

2011-07-01

Proteins of all kinds can self-assemble into highly ordered β-sheet aggregates known as amyloid fibrils, important both biologically and clinically. However, the specific molecular structure of a fibril can vary dramatically depending on sequence and environmental conditions, and mutations can drastically alter amyloid function and pathogenicity. Experimental structure determination has proven extremely difficult with only a handful of NMR-based models proposed, suggesting a need for computational methods. We present AmyloidMutants, a statistical mechanics approach for de novo prediction and analysis of wild-type and mutant amyloid structures. Based on the premise of protein mutational landscapes, AmyloidMutants energetically quantifies the effects of sequence mutation on fibril conformation and stability. Tested on non-mutant, full-length amyloid structures with known chemical shift data, AmyloidMutants offers roughly 2-fold improvement in prediction accuracy over existing tools. Moreover, AmyloidMutants is the only method to predict complete super-secondary structures, enabling accurate discrimination of topologically dissimilar amyloid conformations that correspond to the same sequence locations. Applied to mutant prediction, AmyloidMutants identifies a global conformational switch between Aβ and its highly-toxic 'Iowa' mutant in agreement with a recent experimental model based on partial chemical shift data. Predictions on mutant, yeast-toxic strains of HET-s suggest similar alternate folds. When applied to HET-s and a HET-s mutant with core asparagines replaced by glutamines (both highly amyloidogenic chemically similar residues abundant in many amyloids), AmyloidMutants surprisingly predicts a greatly reduced capacity of the glutamine mutant to form amyloid. We confirm this finding by conducting mutagenesis experiments. Our tool is publically available on the web at http://amyloid.csail.mit.edu/. lindquist_admin@wi.mit.edu; bab@csail.mit.edu.

Potential predictors for the amount of intra-operative brain shift during deep brain stimulation surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datteri, Ryan; Pallavaram, Srivatsan; Konrad, Peter E.; Neimat, Joseph S.; D'Haese, Pierre-François; Dawant, Benoit M.

2011-03-01

A number of groups have reported on the occurrence of intra-operative brain shift during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. This has a number of implications for the procedure including an increased chance of intra-cranial bleeding and complications due to the need for more exploratory electrodes to account for the brain shift. It has been reported that the amount of pneumocephalus or air invasion into the cranial cavity due to the opening of the dura correlates with intraoperative brain shift. Therefore, pre-operatively predicting the amount of pneumocephalus expected during surgery is of interest toward accounting for brain shift. In this study, we used 64 DBS patients who received bilateral electrode implantations and had a post-operative CT scan acquired immediately after surgery (CT-PI). For each patient, the volumes of the pneumocephalus, left ventricle, right ventricle, third ventricle, white matter, grey matter, and cerebral spinal fluid were calculated. The pneumocephalus was calculated from the CT-PI utilizing a region growing technique that was initialized with an atlas-based image registration method. A multi-atlas-based image segmentation method was used to segment out the ventricles of each patient. The Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software package was utilized to calculate the volumes of the cerebral spinal fluid (CSF), white matter and grey matter. The volume of individual structures had a moderate correlation with pneumocephalus. Utilizing a multi-linear regression between the volume of the pneumocephalus and the statistically relevant individual structures a Pearson's coefficient of r = 0.4123 (p = 0.0103) was found. This study shows preliminary results that could be used to develop a method to predict the amount of pneumocephalus ahead of the surgery.

Prediction of black box warning by mining patterns of Convergent Focus Shift in clinical trial study populations using linked public data.

PubMed

Ma, Handong; Weng, Chunhua

2016-04-01

To link public data resources for predicting post-marketing drug safety label changes by analyzing the Convergent Focus Shift patterns among drug testing trials. We identified 256 top-selling prescription drugs between 2003 and 2013 and divided them into 83 BBW drugs (drugs with at least one black box warning label) and 173 ROBUST drugs (drugs without any black box warning label) based on their FDA black box warning (BBW) records. We retrieved 7499 clinical trials that each had at least one of these drugs for intervention from the ClinicalTrials.gov. We stratified all the trials by pre-marketing or post-marketing status, study phase, and study start date. For each trial, we retrieved drug and disease concepts from clinical trial summaries to model its study population using medParser and SNOMED-CT. Convergent Focus Shift (CFS) pattern was calculated and used to assess the temporal changes in study populations from pre-marketing to post-marketing trials for each drug. Then we selected 68 candidate drugs, 18 with BBW warning and 50 without, that each had at least nine pre-marketing trials and nine post-marketing trials for predictive modeling. A random forest predictive model was developed to predict BBW acquisition incidents based on CFS patterns among these drugs. Pre- and post-marketing trials of BBW and ROBUST drugs were compared to look for their differences in CFS patterns. Among the 18 BBW drugs, we consistently observed that the post-marketing trials focused more on recruiting patients with medical conditions previously unconsidered in the pre-marketing trials. In contrast, among the 50 ROBUST drugs, the post-marketing trials involved a variety of medications for testing their associations with target intervention(s). We found it feasible to predict BBW acquisitions using different CFS patterns between the two groups of drugs. Our random forest predictor achieved an AUC of 0.77. We also demonstrated the feasibility of the predictor for identifying long-term BBW acquisition events without compromising prediction accuracy. This study contributes a method for post-marketing pharmacovigilance using Convergent Focus Shift (CFS) patterns in clinical trial study populations mined from linked public data resources. These signals are otherwise unavailable from individual data resources. We demonstrated the added value of linked public data and the feasibility of integrating ClinicalTrials.gov summaries and drug safety labels for post-marketing surveillance. Future research is needed to ensure better accessibility and linkage of heterogeneous drug safety data for efficient pharmacovigilance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Errors in the Calculation of 27Al Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Chemical Shifts

PubMed Central

Wang, Xianlong; Wang, Chengfei; Zhao, Hui

2012-01-01

Computational chemistry is an important tool for signal assignment of 27Al nuclear magnetic resonance spectra in order to elucidate the species of aluminum(III) in aqueous solutions. The accuracy of the popular theoretical models for computing the 27Al chemical shifts was evaluated by comparing the calculated and experimental chemical shifts in more than one hundred aluminum(III) complexes. In order to differentiate the error due to the chemical shielding tensor calculation from that due to the inadequacy of the molecular geometry prediction, single-crystal X-ray diffraction determined structures were used to build the isolated molecule models for calculating the chemical shifts. The results were compared with those obtained using the calculated geometries at the B3LYP/6-31G(d) level. The isotropic chemical shielding constants computed at different levels have strong linear correlations even though the absolute values differ in tens of ppm. The root-mean-square difference between the experimental chemical shifts and the calculated values is approximately 5 ppm for the calculations based on the X-ray structures, but more than 10 ppm for the calculations based on the computed geometries. The result indicates that the popular theoretical models are adequate in calculating the chemical shifts while an accurate molecular geometry is more critical. PMID:23203134

Improving local clustering based top-L link prediction methods via asymmetric link clustering information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhihao; Lin, Youfang; Zhao, Yiji; Yan, Hongyan

2018-02-01

Networks can represent a wide range of complex systems, such as social, biological and technological systems. Link prediction is one of the most important problems in network analysis, and has attracted much research interest recently. Many link prediction methods have been proposed to solve this problem with various techniques. We can note that clustering information plays an important role in solving the link prediction problem. In previous literatures, we find node clustering coefficient appears frequently in many link prediction methods. However, node clustering coefficient is limited to describe the role of a common-neighbor in different local networks, because it cannot distinguish different clustering abilities of a node to different node pairs. In this paper, we shift our focus from nodes to links, and propose the concept of asymmetric link clustering (ALC) coefficient. Further, we improve three node clustering based link prediction methods via the concept of ALC. The experimental results demonstrate that ALC-based methods outperform node clustering based methods, especially achieving remarkable improvements on food web, hamster friendship and Internet networks. Besides, comparing with other methods, the performance of ALC-based methods are very stable in both globalized and personalized top-L link prediction tasks.

Assessing trait-based scaling theory in tropical and temperate forests spanning a broad temperature gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, B. J.

2017-12-01

Tropical and temperate elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can influence tropical forests. However, there is a need for theory and integrated data collection to scale from traits to ecosystems. We assess predictions of a novel trait-based metabolic scaling theory including whether observed shifts in forest traits across a broad tropical temperature gradient is consistent with local phenotypic optima and adaptive compensation for temperature. We tested a new anaytical theory - Trait Driver Theory - that is capable of scaling from traits to entire stands and ecosystems across several elevation gradients spanning 3300m. Each gradient consists of thousands of tropical and temperate tree trait measures taken from forest plots. In several of these plots, in particular in southern Perú, gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) were measured. We measured multiple traits linked to variation in tree growth and assessed their frequency distributions within and across the elevation gradient. We paired these trait measures across individuals within forests with simultaneous measures of ecosystem net and gross primary productivity. Consistent with theory, variation in forest NPP and GPP primarily scaled with forest biomass but the secondary effect of temperature on productivity was much less than expected. This weak temperature dependency appears to reflect directional shifts in several mean community traits that underlie tree growth with decreases in site temperature. The observed shift in traits of trees that dominant more cold environments appear to reflect `adaptive/acclimatory' compensation for the kinetic effects of temperature on leaf photosynthesis and tree growth. Forest trait distributions across the gradient showed peaked and skewed distributions, consistent with the importance of local filtering of optimal growth traits and recent shifts in species composition and dominance due to warming from climate change. Trait-based metabolic scaling theory provides a basis to predict how shifts in climate have and will influence the trait composition and ecosystem functioning of temperate and tropical forests.

State-based versus reward-based motivation in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Worthy, Darrell A; Cooper, Jessica A; Byrne, Kaileigh A; Gorlick, Marissa A; Maddox, W Todd

2014-12-01

Recent decision-making work has focused on a distinction between a habitual, model-free neural system that is motivated toward actions that lead directly to reward and a more computationally demanding goal-directed, model-based system that is motivated toward actions that improve one's future state. In this article, we examine how aging affects motivation toward reward-based versus state-based decision making. Participants performed tasks in which one type of option provided larger immediate rewards but the alternative type of option led to larger rewards on future trials, or improvements in state. We predicted that older adults would show a reduced preference for choices that led to improvements in state and a greater preference for choices that maximized immediate reward. We also predicted that fits from a hybrid reinforcement-learning model would indicate greater model-based strategy use in younger than in older adults. In line with these predictions, older adults selected the options that maximized reward more often than did younger adults in three of the four tasks, and modeling results suggested reduced model-based strategy use. In the task where older adults showed similar behavior to younger adults, our model-fitting results suggested that this was due to the utilization of a win-stay-lose-shift heuristic rather than a more complex model-based strategy. Additionally, within older adults, we found that model-based strategy use was positively correlated with memory measures from our neuropsychological test battery. We suggest that this shift from state-based to reward-based motivation may be due to age related declines in the neural structures needed for more computationally demanding model-based decision making.

Remote monitoring of cardiovascular implanted electronic devices: a paradigm shift for the 21st century.

PubMed

Cronin, Edmond M; Varma, Niraj

2012-07-01

Traditional follow-up of cardiac implantable electronic devices involves the intermittent download of largely nonactionable data. Remote monitoring represents a paradigm shift from episodic office-based follow-up to continuous monitoring of device performance and patient and disease state. This lessens device clinical burden and may also lead to cost savings, although data on economic impact are only beginning to emerge. Remote monitoring technology has the potential to improve the outcomes through earlier detection of arrhythmias and compromised device integrity, and possibly predict heart failure hospitalizations through integration of heart failure diagnostics and hemodynamic monitors. Remote monitoring platforms are also huge databases of patients and devices, offering unprecedented opportunities to investigate real-world outcomes. Here, the current status of the field is described and future directions are predicted.

Adaptive Encoding of Outcome Prediction by Prefrontal Cortex Ensembles Supports Behavioral Flexibility.

PubMed

Del Arco, Alberto; Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Kim, Yunbok; Moghaddam, Bita

2017-08-30

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to play a critical role in behavioral flexibility by monitoring action-outcome contingencies. How PFC ensembles represent shifts in behavior in response to changes in these contingencies remains unclear. We recorded single-unit activity and local field potentials in the dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) of male rats during a set-shifting task that required them to update their behavior, among competing options, in response to changes in action-outcome contingencies. As behavior was updated, a subset of PFC ensembles encoded the current trial outcome before the outcome was presented. This novel outcome-prediction encoding was absent in a control task, in which actions were rewarded pseudorandomly, indicating that PFC neurons are not merely providing an expectancy signal. In both control and set-shifting tasks, dmPFC neurons displayed postoutcome discrimination activity, indicating that these neurons also monitor whether a behavior is successful in generating rewards. Gamma-power oscillatory activity increased before the outcome in both tasks but did not differentiate between expected outcomes, suggesting that this measure is not related to set-shifting behavior but reflects expectation of an outcome after action execution. These results demonstrate that PFC neurons support flexible rule-based action selection by predicting outcomes that follow a particular action. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tracking action-outcome contingencies and modifying behavior when those contingencies change is critical to behavioral flexibility. We find that ensembles of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex neurons differentiate between expected outcomes when action-outcome contingencies change. This predictive mode of signaling may be used to promote a new response strategy at the service of behavioral flexibility. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378363-11$15.00/0.

Improvement of Bragg peak shift estimation using dimensionality reduction techniques and predictive linear modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yafei; Macq, Benoit

2017-11-01

With the emergence of clinical prototypes and first patient acquisitions for proton therapy, the research on prompt gamma imaging is aiming at making most use of the prompt gamma data for in vivo estimation of any shift from expected Bragg peak (BP). The simple problem of matching the measured prompt gamma profile of each pencil beam with a reference simulation from the treatment plan is actually made complex by uncertainties which can translate into distortions during treatment. We will illustrate this challenge and demonstrate the robustness of a predictive linear model we proposed for BP shift estimation based on principal component analysis (PCA) method. It considered the first clinical knife-edge slit camera design in use with anthropomorphic phantom CT data. Particularly, 4115 error scenarios were simulated for the learning model. PCA was applied to the training input randomly chosen from 500 scenarios for eliminating data collinearities. A total variance of 99.95% was used for representing the testing input from 3615 scenarios. This model improved the BP shift estimation by an average of 63+/-19% in a range between -2.5% and 86%, comparing to our previous profile shift (PS) method. The robustness of our method was demonstrated by a comparative study conducted by applying 1000 times Poisson noise to each profile. 67% cases obtained by the learning model had lower prediction errors than those obtained by PS method. The estimation accuracy ranged between 0.31 +/- 0.22 mm and 1.84 +/- 8.98 mm for the learning model, while for PS method it ranged between 0.3 +/- 0.25 mm and 20.71 +/- 8.38 mm.

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

2015-02-05

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

Using time-varying asymptotic length and body condition of top piscivores to indicate ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron: a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ji X.; Bence, James R.; Roseman, Edward F.; Fielder, David G.; Ebener, Mark P.

2015-01-01

We evaluated the ecosystem regime shift in the main basin of Lake Huron that was indicated by the 2003 collapse of alewives, and dramatic declines in Chinook salmon abundance thereafter. We found that the period of 1995-2002 should be considered as the early phase of the final regime shift. We developed two Bayesian hierarchical models to describe time-varying growth based on the von Bertalanffy growth function and the length-mass relationship. We used asymptotic length as an index of growth potential, and predicted body mass at a given length as an index of body condition. Modeling fits to length and body mass at age of lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye were excellent. Based on posterior distributions, we evaluated the shifts in among-year geometric means of the growth potential and body condition. For a given top piscivore, one of the two indices responded to the regime shift much earlier than the 2003 collapse of alewives, the other corresponded to the 2003 changes, and which index provided the early signal differed among the three top piscivores.

Channel Acquisition for Massive MIMO-OFDM With Adjustable Phase Shift Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Li; Gao, Xiqi; Swindlehurst, A. Lee; Zhong, Wen

2016-03-01

We propose adjustable phase shift pilots (APSPs) for channel acquisition in wideband massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems employing orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) to reduce the pilot overhead. Based on a physically motivated channel model, we first establish a relationship between channel space-frequency correlations and the channel power angle-delay spectrum in the massive antenna array regime, which reveals the channel sparsity in massive MIMO-OFDM. With this channel model, we then investigate channel acquisition, including channel estimation and channel prediction, for massive MIMO-OFDM with APSPs. We show that channel acquisition performance in terms of sum mean square error can be minimized if the user terminals' channel power distributions in the angle-delay domain can be made non-overlapping with proper phase shift scheduling. A simplified pilot phase shift scheduling algorithm is developed based on this optimal channel acquisition condition. The performance of APSPs is investigated for both one symbol and multiple symbol data models. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed APSP approach can provide substantial performance gains in terms of achievable spectral efficiency over the conventional phase shift orthogonal pilot approach in typical mobility scenarios.

The application of tailor-made force fields and molecular dynamics for NMR crystallography: a case study of free base cocaine

PubMed Central

Neumann, Marcus A.

2017-01-01

Motional averaging has been proven to be significant in predicting the chemical shifts in ab initio solid-state NMR calculations, and the applicability of motional averaging with molecular dynamics has been shown to depend on the accuracy of the molecular mechanical force field. The performance of a fully automatically generated tailor-made force field (TMFF) for the dynamic aspects of NMR crystallography is evaluated and compared with existing benchmarks, including static dispersion-corrected density functional theory calculations and the COMPASS force field. The crystal structure of free base cocaine is used as an example. The results reveal that, even though the TMFF outperforms the COMPASS force field for representing the energies and conformations of predicted structures, it does not give significant improvement in the accuracy of NMR calculations. Further studies should direct more attention to anisotropic chemical shifts and development of the method of solid-state NMR calculations. PMID:28250956

Analysis of operational comfort in manual tasks using human force manipulability measure.

PubMed

Tanaka, Yoshiyuki; Nishikawa, Kazuo; Yamada, Naoki; Tsuji, Toshio

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a scheme for human force manipulability (HFM) based on the use of isometric joint torque properties to simulate the spatial characteristics of human operation forces at an end-point of a limb with feasible magnitudes for a specified limb posture. This is also applied to the evaluation/prediction of operational comfort (OC) when manually operating a human-machine interface. The effectiveness of HFM is investigated through two experiments and computer simulations of humans generating forces by using their upper extremities. Operation force generation with maximum isometric effort can be roughly estimated with an HFM measure computed from information on the arm posture during a maintained posture. The layout of a human-machine interface is then discussed based on the results of operational experiments using an electric gear-shifting system originally developed for robotic devices. The results indicate a strong relationship between the spatial characteristics of the HFM and OC levels when shifting, and the OC is predicted by using a multiple regression model with HFM measures.

Knowledge-based nonuniform sampling in multidimensional NMR.

PubMed

Schuyler, Adam D; Maciejewski, Mark W; Arthanari, Haribabu; Hoch, Jeffrey C

2011-07-01

The full resolution afforded by high-field magnets is rarely realized in the indirect dimensions of multidimensional NMR experiments because of the time cost of uniformly sampling to long evolution times. Emerging methods utilizing nonuniform sampling (NUS) enable high resolution along indirect dimensions by sampling long evolution times without sampling at every multiple of the Nyquist sampling interval. While the earliest NUS approaches matched the decay of sampling density to the decay of the signal envelope, recent approaches based on coupled evolution times attempt to optimize sampling by choosing projection angles that increase the likelihood of resolving closely-spaced resonances. These approaches employ knowledge about chemical shifts to predict optimal projection angles, whereas prior applications of tailored sampling employed only knowledge of the decay rate. In this work we adapt the matched filter approach as a general strategy for knowledge-based nonuniform sampling that can exploit prior knowledge about chemical shifts and is not restricted to sampling projections. Based on several measures of performance, we find that exponentially weighted random sampling (envelope matched sampling) performs better than shift-based sampling (beat matched sampling). While shift-based sampling can yield small advantages in sensitivity, the gains are generally outweighed by diminished robustness. Our observation that more robust sampling schemes are only slightly less sensitive than schemes highly optimized using prior knowledge about chemical shifts has broad implications for any multidimensional NMR study employing NUS. The results derived from simulated data are demonstrated with a sample application to PfPMT, the phosphoethanolamine methyltransferase of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum.

Going Rogue in the Spatial Cuing Paradigm: High Spatial Validity Is Insufficient to Elicit Voluntary Shifts of Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Gregory J.; Gibson, Bradley S.

2012-01-01

Voluntary shifts of attention are often motivated in experimental contexts by using well-known symbols that accurately predict the direction of targets. The authors report 3 experiments, which showed that the presentation of predictive spatial information does not provide sufficient incentive to elicit voluntary shifts of attention. For instance,…

Proton-Coupled Electron Transfer and Substituent Effects in Catechol-Based Deep Eutectic Solvents: Gross and Fine Tuning of Redox Activity.

PubMed

Smith, Parker J; Goeltz, John C

2017-12-07

The 1,2-diol moiety in a variety of substituted catechols allows formation of room temperature ionic melts in a 2:1 ratio with choline chloride or choline dihydrogen citrate. These deep eutectic solvents were 4.3-6.6 M in redox active catechols. Substituents on 3- and 4-substituted catechols shift both E° and pK a such that Hammett parameters predict the observed E p for oxidation in square wave voltammetry. The proton acceptor for the proton-coupled oxidation shifts the observed E p more strongly than the substituents within the substituents and acceptors reported here. The shift is predicted well by the pK a of the conjugate acid of the proton acceptor, i.e., water in aqueous solutions or chloride or dihydrogen citrate in the DESs in this study. Together, the substituent and the proton acceptor allow gross and fine-tuning of the oxidation potential for catechol over 750 mV, the first demonstration of control of the thermodynamics of proton-coupled electron transfer in deep eutectic solvents. Changing the substituents on the HBD affords fine control in tens of millivolts, while changing the base strength of the anion of the organic salt affords gross control across hundreds of millivolts.

Theoretical NMR correlations based Structure Discussion.

PubMed

Junker, Jochen

2011-07-28

The constitutional assignment of natural products by NMR spectroscopy is usually based on 2D NMR experiments like COSY, HSQC, and HMBC. The actual difficulty of the structure elucidation problem depends more on the type of the investigated molecule than on its size. The moment HMBC data is involved in the process or a large number of heteroatoms is present, a possibility of multiple solutions fitting the same data set exists. A structure elucidation software can be used to find such alternative constitutional assignments and help in the discussion in order to find the correct solution. But this is rarely done. This article describes the use of theoretical NMR correlation data in the structure elucidation process with WEBCOCON, not for the initial constitutional assignments, but to define how well a suggested molecule could have been described by NMR correlation data. The results of this analysis can be used to decide on further steps needed to assure the correctness of the structural assignment. As first step the analysis of the deviation of carbon chemical shifts is performed, comparing chemical shifts predicted for each possible solution with the experimental data. The application of this technique to three well known compounds is shown. Using NMR correlation data alone for the description of the constitutions is not always enough, even when including 13C chemical shift prediction.

Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study.

PubMed

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Smith, Thomas A; Hodel, Eva Maria; Kay, Katherine; Penny, Melissa A

2015-07-25

Effective population-level interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria lead to age-shifts, delayed morbidity or rebounds in morbidity and mortality whenever they are deployed in ways that do not permanently interrupt transmission. When long-term intervention programmes target specific age-groups of human hosts, the age-specific morbidity rates ultimately adjust to new steady-states, but it is very difficult to study these rates and the temporal dynamics leading up to them empirically because the changes occur over very long time periods. This study investigates the age and magnitude of age- and time- shifting of incidence induced by either pre-erythrocytic vaccination (PEV) programmes or seasonal malaria chemo-prevention (SMC), using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics. The models made various assumptions about immunity decay, transmission heterogeneity and were parameterized with data on both age-specific infection and disease incidence at different levels of exposure, on the durations of different stages of the parasite life-cycle and on human demography. Effects of transmission intensity, and of levels of access to malaria treatment were considered. While both PEV and SMC programmes are predicted to have overall strongly positive health effects, a shift of morbidity into older children is predicted to be induced by either programme if transmission levels remain static and not reduced by other interventions. Predicted shifting of burden continue into the second decade of the programme. Even if long-term surveillance is maintained it will be difficult to avoid mis-attribution of such long-term changes in age-specific morbidity patterns to other factors. Conversely, short-lived transient changes in incidence measured soon after introduction of a new intervention may give over-positive views of future impacts. Complementary intervention strategies could be designed to specifically protect those age-groups at risk from burden shift.

Applying mathematical models to predict resident physician performance and alertness on traditional and novel work schedules.

PubMed

Klerman, Elizabeth B; Beckett, Scott A; Landrigan, Christopher P

2016-09-13

In 2011 the U.S. Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education began limiting first year resident physicians (interns) to shifts of ≤16 consecutive hours. Controversy persists regarding the effectiveness of this policy for reducing errors and accidents while promoting education and patient care. Using a mathematical model of the effects of circadian rhythms and length of time awake on objective performance and subjective alertness, we quantitatively compared predictions for traditional intern schedules to those that limit work to ≤ 16 consecutive hours. We simulated two traditional schedules and three novel schedules using the mathematical model. The traditional schedules had extended duration work shifts (≥24 h) with overnight work shifts every second shift (including every third night, Q3) or every third shift (including every fourth night, Q4) night; the novel schedules had two different cross-cover (XC) night team schedules (XC-V1 and XC-V2) and a Rapid Cycle Rotation (RCR) schedule. Predicted objective performance and subjective alertness for each work shift were computed for each individual's schedule within a team and then combined for the team as a whole. Our primary outcome was the amount of time within a work shift during which a team's model-predicted objective performance and subjective alertness were lower than that expected after 16 or 24 h of continuous wake in an otherwise rested individual. The model predicted fewer hours with poor performance and alertness, especially during night-time work hours, for all three novel schedules than for either the traditional Q3 or Q4 schedules. Three proposed schedules that eliminate extended shifts may improve performance and alertness compared with traditional Q3 or Q4 schedules. Predicted times of worse performance and alertness were at night, which is also a time when supervision of trainees is lower. Mathematical modeling provides a quantitative comparison approach with potential to aid residency programs in schedule analysis and redesign.

Predicting the crystallization propensity of carboxylic acid buffers in frozen systems--relevance to freeze-drying.

PubMed

Sundaramurthi, Prakash; Suryanarayanan, Raj

2011-04-01

Selective crystallization of buffer components in frozen solutions is known to cause pronounced pH shifts. Our objective was to study the crystallization behavior and the consequent pH shift in frozen aqueous carboxylic acid buffers. Aqueous carboxylic acid buffers were cooled to -25°C and the pH of the solution was measured as a function of temperature. The thermal behavior of solutions during freezing and thawing was investigated by differential scanning calorimetry. The crystallized phases in frozen solution were identified by X-ray diffractometry. The malate buffer system was robust with no evidence of buffer component crystallization and hence negligible pH shift. In the citrate and tartarate systems, at initial pH

Eyewitness decisions in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a dual-process signal detection theory analysis.

PubMed

Meissner, Christian A; Tredoux, Colin G; Parker, Janat F; MacLin, Otto H

2005-07-01

Many eyewitness researchers have argued for the application of a sequential alternative to the traditional simultaneous lineup, given its role in decreasing false identifications of innocent suspects (sequential superiority effect). However, Ebbesen and Flowe (2002) have recently noted that sequential lineups may merely bring about a shift in response criterion, having no effect on discrimination accuracy. We explored this claim, using a method that allows signal detection theory measures to be collected from eyewitnesses. In three experiments, lineup type was factorially combined with conditions expected to influence response criterion and/or discrimination accuracy. Results were consistent with signal detection theory predictions, including that of a conservative criterion shift with the sequential presentation of lineups. In a fourth experiment, we explored the phenomenological basis for the criterion shift, using the remember-know-guess procedure. In accord with previous research, the criterion shift in sequential lineups was associated with a reduction in familiarity-based responding. It is proposed that the relative similarity between lineup members may create a context in which fluency-based processing is facilitated to a greater extent when lineup members are presented simultaneously.

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

PubMed Central

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-01-01

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change. PMID:27621443

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-09-27

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Ian B.; Arendt, Dustin L.; Bell, Eric B.

Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. This work addresses several important tasks of visualizing and predicting short term text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word’s contextual semantics. We study the relationship between short-term concept drift and representation shift on a large social media corpus – VKontakte collected during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014 – 2015. We visualize short-term representation shift for example keywords and build predictive models to forecast short-term shifts in meaning from previous meaning as well as from conceptmore » drift. We show that short-term representation shift can be accurately predicted up to several weeks in advance and that visualization provides insight into meaning change. Our approach can be used to explore and characterize specific aspects of the streaming corpus during crisis events and potentially improve other downstream classification tasks including real-time event forecasting in social media.« less

Initial atomic coherences and Ramsey frequency pulling in fountain clocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerginov, Vladislav; Nemitz, Nils; Weyers, Stefan

2014-09-01

In the uncertainty budget of primary atomic cesium fountain clocks, evaluations of frequency-pulling shifts of the hyperfine clock transition caused by unintentional excitation of its nearby transitions (Rabi and Ramsey pulling) have been based so far on an approach developed for cesium beam clocks. We re-evaluate this type of frequency pulling in fountain clocks and pay particular attention to the effect of initial coherent atomic states. We find significantly enhanced frequency shifts caused by Ramsey pulling due to sublevel population imbalance and corresponding coherences within the state-selected hyperfine component of the initial atom ground state. Such shifts are experimentally investigated in an atomic fountain clock and quantitative agreement with the predictions of the model is demonstrated.

Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities: Frequency variability in the Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

1992-11-01

Two techniques have been developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters. These techniques overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant "blue shift" of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on "global" internal wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12° of the equator.

Protein Structural Information Derived from NMR Chemical Shift with the Neural Network Program TALOS-N

PubMed Central

Shen, Yang; Bax, Ad

2015-01-01

Summary Chemical shifts are obtained at the first stage of any protein structural study by NMR spectroscopy. Chemical shifts are known to be impacted by a wide range of structural factors and the artificial neural network based TALOS-N program has been trained to extract backbone and sidechain torsion angles from 1H, 15N and 13C shifts. The program is quite robust, and typically yields backbone torsion angles for more than 90% of the residues, and sidechain χ1 rotamer information for about half of these, in addition to reliably predicting secondary structure. The use of TALOS-N is illustrated for the protein DinI, and torsion angles obtained by TALOS-N analysis from the measured chemical shifts of its backbone and 13Cβ nuclei are compared to those seen in a prior, experimentally determined structure. The program is also particularly useful for generating torsion angle restraints, which then can be used during standard NMR protein structure calculations. PMID:25502373

Competition from below for light and nutrients shifts productivity among tropical species.

PubMed

Ewel, John J; Mazzarino, María Julia

2008-12-02

Chance events such as seed dispersal determine the potential composition of plant communities, but the eventual assemblage is determined in large part by subsequent interactions among species. Postcolonization sorting also affects the ultimate composition of communities assembled by people for restoration, horticulture, or conservation. Thus, knowledge of the mechanisms controlling interspecific interactions in plant communities is important for explaining patterns observed in nature and predicting success or failure of utilitarian combinations. Relationships among species, especially those from studies of biological diversity and ecosystem functioning, are largely based on studies of short-lived, temperate-zone plants. Extrapolation to perennial plants in the humid tropics is risky because functional relationships among large-stature species change with time. Shifts in competitive relationships among 3 life forms--trees, palms, and perennial herbs--occurred during 13 yr in experimental tropical ecosystems. In 2 cases the novel competitive mechanism responsible for the shift was reduction in crown volume, and therefore light-capturing capability, of overtopping deciduous trees by intrusive growth from below a palm. In a third case, complementary resource use developed between 2 evergreen life forms (overstory tree and palm), probably because of differential nutrient acquisition. Species-level traits and adequate time for shifts in interspecific relationships to emerge are crucial for predicting community trajectories.

SU-E-J-164: Estimation of DVH Variation for PTV Due to Interfraction Organ Motion in Prostate VMAT Using Gaussian Error Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, C; Jiang, R; Chow, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: We developed a method to predict the change of DVH for PTV due to interfraction organ motion in prostate VMAT without repeating the CT scan and treatment planning. The method is based on a pre-calculated patient database with DVH curves of PTV modelled by the Gaussian error function (GEF). Methods: For a group of 30 patients with different prostate sizes, their VMAT plans were recalculated by shifting their PTVs 1 cm with 10 increments in the anterior-posterior, left-right and superior-inferior directions. The DVH curve of PTV in each replan was then fitted by the GEF to determine parameters describingmore » the shape of curve. Information of parameters, varying with the DVH change due to prostate motion for different prostate sizes, was analyzed and stored in a database of a program written by MATLAB. Results: To predict a new DVH for PTV due to prostate interfraction motion, prostate size and shift distance with direction were input to the program. Parameters modelling the DVH for PTV were determined based on the pre-calculated patient dataset. From the new parameters, DVH curves of PTVs with and without considering the prostate motion were plotted for comparison. The program was verified with different prostate cases involving interfraction prostate shifts and replans. Conclusion: Variation of DVH for PTV in prostate VMAT can be predicted using a pre-calculated patient database with DVH curve fitting. The computing time is fast because CT rescan and replan are not required. This quick DVH estimation can help radiation staff to determine if the changed PTV coverage due to prostate shift is tolerable in the treatment. However, it should be noted that the program can only consider prostate interfraction motions along three axes, and is restricted to prostate VMAT plan using the same plan script in the treatment planning system.« less

A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: The pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Dey, Rima; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.

2015-01-01

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

Adaptive responses and disruptive effects: how major wildfire influences kinship-based social interactions in a forest marsupial.

PubMed

Banks, Sam C; Blyton, Michaela D J; Blair, David; McBurney, Lachlan; Lindenmayer, David B

2012-02-01

Environmental disturbance is predicted to play a key role in the evolution of animal social behaviour. This is because disturbance affects key factors underlying social systems, such as demography, resource availability and genetic structure. However, because natural disturbances are unpredictable there is little information on their effects on social behaviour in wild populations. Here, we investigated how a major wildfire affected cooperation (sharing of hollow trees) by a hollow-dependent marsupial. We based two alternative social predictions on the impacts of fire on population density, genetic structure and resources. We predicted an adaptive social response from previous work showing that kin selection in den-sharing develops as competition for den resources increases. Thus, kin selection should occur in burnt areas because the fire caused loss of the majority of hollow-bearing trees, but no detectable mortality. Alternatively, fire may have a disruptive social effect, whereby postfire home range-shifts 'neutralize' fine-scale genetic structure, thereby removing opportunities for kin selection between neighbours. Both predictions occurred: the disruptive social effect in burnt habitat and the adaptive social response in adjacent unburnt habitat. The latter followed a massive demographic influx to unburnt 'refuge' habitat that increased competition for dens, leading to a density-related kin selection response. Our results show remarkable short-term plasticity of animal social behaviour and demonstrate how the social effects of disturbance extend into undisturbed habitat owing to landscape-scale demographic shifts. We predicted long-term changes in kinship-based cooperative behaviour resulting from the genetic and resource impacts of forecast changes to fire regimes in these forests. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Prediction of supercritical ethane bulk solvent densities for pyrazine solvation shell average occupancy by 1, 2, 3, and 4 ethanes: combined experimental and ab initio approach.

PubMed

Hrnjez, Bruce J; Sultan, Samuel T; Natanov, Georgiy R; Kastner, David B; Rosman, Michael R

2005-11-17

We introduce a method that addresses the elusive local density at the solute in the highly compressible regime of a supercritical fluid. Experimentally, the red shift of the pyrazine n-pi electronic transition was measured at infinite dilution in supercritical ethane as a function of pressure from 0 to about 3000 psia at two temperatures, one close (35.0 degrees C) to the critical temperature and the other remote (55.0 degrees C). Computationally, stationary points were located on the potential surfaces for pyrazine and one, two, three, and four ethanes at the MP2/6-311++G(d,p) level. The vertical n-pi ((1)B(3u)) transition energies were computed for each of these geometries with a TDDFT/B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) method. The combination of experiment and computation allows prediction of supercritical ethane bulk densities at which the pyrazine primary solvation shell contains an average of one, two, three, and four ethane molecules. These density predictions were achieved by graphical superposition of calculated shifts on the experimental shift versus density curves for 35.0 and 55.0 degrees C. Predicted densities are 0.0635, 0.0875, and 0.0915 g cm(-3) for average pyrazine primary solvation shell occupancy by one, two, and three ethanes at both 35.0 and 55.0 degrees C. Predicted densities are 0.129 and 0.150 g cm(-3) for occupancy by four ethanes at 35.0 and 55.0 degrees C, respectively. An alternative approach, designed to "average out" geometry specific shifts, is based on the relationship Deltanu = -23.9n cm(-1), where n = ethane number. Graphical treatment gives alternative predicted densities of 0.0490, 0.0844, and 0.120 g cm(-3) for average pyrazine primary solvation shell occupancy by one, two, and three ethanes at both 35.0 and 55.0 degrees C, and densities of 0.148 and 0.174 g cm(-3) for occupancy by four ethanes at 35.0 and 55.0 degrees C, respectively.

Breast cancer screening among shift workers: a nationwide population-based survey in Korea.

PubMed

Son, Heesook; Kang, Youngmi

2017-04-01

We aimed to examine the association between shift work types and participation in breast cancer screening (BCS) programs by comparing rates of participation for BCS among regular daytime workers and alternative shift workers using data from a nationally representative, population-based survey conducted in Korea. In addition, the results were analyzed according to sociodemographic factors, including occupation, education, income, private health insurance, age, and number of working hours a week. This secondary cross-sectional analysis used data from the 2012 Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. The target population included women aged ≥ 40 years who responded as to whether they had undergone BCS in the previous year. Accordingly, we analyzed survey data for a total of 1,193 women and used a multivariate logistic regression analysis to evaluate the differences in factors affecting BCS between regular daytime and alternative shift workers. A logistic regression analysis was performed considering private health insurance as a significant sociodemographic factor for BCS among regular daytime shift workers. In contrast, none of the tested variables could significantly predict adherence to BCS among alternative shift workers. The results of this study suggest the need for the development of comprehensive workplace breast cancer prevention programs by considering shift work types. More attention should be given to female workers with low education levels, those who are uninsured, and young workers to improve the participation rate for BCS at the workplace.

Observational Evidence for the Effect of Amplification Bias in Gravitational Microlensing Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Cheongho; Jeong, Youngjin; Kim, Ho-Il

1998-11-01

Recently Alard, Mao, & Guibert and Alard proposed to detect the shift of a star's image centroid, δx, as a method to identify the lensed source among blended stars. Goldberg & Woźniak actually applied this method to the OGLE-1 database and found that seven of 15 events showed significant centroid shifts of δx >~ 0.2". The amount of centroid shift has been estimated theoretically by Goldberg; however, he treated the problem in general and did not apply it to a particular survey or field and therefore based his estimate on simple toy model luminosity functions (i.e., power laws). In this paper, we construct the expected distribution of δx for Galactic bulge events based on the precise stellar luminosity function observed by Holtzman et al. using the Hubble Space Telescope. Their luminosity function is complete up to MI ~ 9.0 (MV ~ 12), which corresponds to faint M-type stars. In our analysis we find that regular blending cannot produce a large fraction of events with measurable centroid shifts. By contrast, a significant fraction of events would have measurable centroid shifts if they are affected by amplification-bias blending. Therefore, the measurements of large centroid shifts for an important fraction of microlensing events of Goldberg & Woźniak confirm the prediction of Han & Alard that a large fraction of Galactic bulge events are affected by amplification-bias blending.

Does high location and thickness of the Wrisberg ligament affect discoid lateral meniscus tear type based on peripheral detachment?

PubMed

Ahn, Jin Hwan; Wang, Joon Ho; Kim, Dong Uk; Lee, Do Kyung; Kim, Jun Ho

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between discoid lateral meniscus (DLM) types based on peripheral detachment and anatomic features of Wrisberg ligament (WL) such as location and thickness based on magnetic resonance image (MRI). A total of 322 knees in 292 patients were reviewed. Patients were divided into four DLM types according to peripheral detachment: no shift (type 1), anterocentral shift (type 2), posterocentral shift (type 3) and central shift (type 4). We reviewed all MRI concentrating on the presence, location (high or low location), running angle, thickness of WL, and WL/posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) thickness ratio. The relationship between DLM types and anatomic features of WL were analyzed using one-way analysis of variance and chi-square test. According to DLM types based on peripheral detachment, 149 knees were type 1, 38 were type 2, 79 were type 3, and 56 were type 4. Among the 322 knees, 302 (93.8%) had WL on MRI. In DLM patients, type 3 showed a statistically significant (P<0.001) relationship with high location of WL. In addition, type 3 had significantly larger (P<0.0001) running angle of WL, thicker (P<0.0001) WL, and higher (P<0.0001) WL/PCL ratio compared to other types. A high location and thick WL are related to posterocentral shift type of DLM based on peripheral detachment. Based on our results, the high location and thick WL might provide information to surgeons in predicting the direction of peripheral detachment in symptomatic DLM patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An improved reversible data hiding algorithm based on modification of prediction errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafar, Iyad F.; Hiary, Sawsan A.; Darabkh, Khalid A.

2014-04-01

Reversible data hiding algorithms are concerned with the ability of hiding data and recovering the original digital image upon extraction. This issue is of interest in medical and military imaging applications. One particular class of such algorithms relies on the idea of histogram shifting of prediction errors. In this paper, we propose an improvement over one popular algorithm in this class. The improvement is achieved by employing a different predictor, the use of more bins in the prediction error histogram in addition to multilevel embedding. The proposed extension shows significant improvement over the original algorithm and its variations.

A geometry-based approach to determining time-temperature superposition shifts in aging experiments

DOE PAGES

Maiti, Amitesh

2015-12-21

A powerful way to expand the time and frequency range of material properties is through a method called time-temperature superposition (TTS). Traditionally, TTS has been applied to the dynamical mechanical and flow properties of thermo-rheologically simple materials, where a well-defined master curve can be objectively and accurately obtained by appropriate shifts of curves at different temperatures. However, TTS analysis can also be useful in many other situations where there is scatter in the data and where the principle holds only approximately. In such cases, shifting curves can become a subjective exercise and can often lead to significant errors in themore » long-term prediction. This mandates the need for an objective method of determining TTS shifts. Here, we adopt a method based on minimizing the “arc length” of the master curve, which is designed to work in situations where there is overlapping data at successive temperatures. We examine the accuracy of the method as a function of increasing noise in the data, and explore the effectiveness of data smoothing prior to TTS shifting. In conclusion, we validate the method using existing experimental data on the creep strain of an aramid fiber and the powder coarsening of an energetic material.« less

Broadband microwave photonic fully tunable filter using a single heterogeneously integrated III-V/SOI-microdisk-based phase shifter.

PubMed

Lloret, Juan; Morthier, Geert; Ramos, Francisco; Sales, Salvador; Van Thourhout, Dries; Spuesens, Thijs; Olivier, Nicolas; Fédéli, Jean-Marc; Capmany, José

2012-05-07

A broadband microwave photonic phase shifter based on a single III-V microdisk resonator heterogeneously integrated on and coupled to a nanophotonic silicon-on-insulator waveguide is reported. The phase shift tunability is accomplished by modifying the effective index through carrier injection. A comprehensive semi-analytical model aiming at predicting its behavior is formulated and confirmed by measurements. Quasi-linear and continuously tunable 2π phase shifts at radiofrequencies greater than 18 GHz are experimentally demonstrated. The phase shifter performance is also evaluated when used as a key element in tunable filtering schemes. Distortion-free and wideband filtering responses with a tuning range of ~100% over the free spectral range are obtained.

Computational study of the shift of the G band of double-walled carbon nanotubes due to interlayer interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, Valentin N.; Levshov, Dmitry I.; Sauvajol, Jean-Louis; Paillet, Matthieu

2018-04-01

The interactions between the layers of double-walled carbon nanotubes induce a measurable shift of the G bands relative to the isolated layers. While experimental data on this shift in freestanding double-walled carbon nanotubes has been reported in the past several years, a comprehensive theoretical description of the observed shift is still lacking. The prediction of this shift is important for supporting the assignment of the measured double-walled nanotubes to particular nanotube types. Here, we report a computational study of the G-band shift as a function of the semiconducting inner layer radius and interlayer separation. We find that with increasing interlayer separation, the G band shift decreases, passes through zero and becomes negative, and further increases in absolute value for the wide range of considered inner layer radii. The theoretical predictions are shown to agree with the available experimental data within the experimental uncertainty.

Host shifts and evolutionary radiations of butterflies

PubMed Central

Fordyce, James A.

2010-01-01

Ehrlich and Raven proposed a model of coevolution where major host plant shifts of butterflies facilitate a burst of diversification driven by their arrival to a new adaptive zone. One prediction of this model is that reconstructions of historical diversification of butterflies should indicate an increase in diversification rate following major host shifts. Using reconstructed histories of 15 butterfly groups, I tested this prediction and found general agreement with Ehrlich and Raven's model. Butterfly lineages with an inferred major historical host shift showed evidence of diversification rate variation, with a significant acceleration following the host shift. Lineages without an inferred major host shift generally agreed with a constant-rate model of diversification. These results are consistent with the view that host plant associations have played a profound role in the evolutionary history of butterflies, and show that major shifts to chemically distinct plant groups leave a historical footprint that remains detectable today. PMID:20610430

Structure-based predictions of 13C-NMR chemical shifts for a series of 2-functionalized 5-(methylsulfonyl)-1-phenyl-1H-indoles derivatives using GA-based MLR method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavami, Raouf; Sadeghi, Faridoon; Rasouli, Zolikha; Djannati, Farhad

2012-12-01

Experimental values for the 13C NMR chemical shifts (ppm, TMS = 0) at 300 K ranging from 96.28 ppm (C4' of indole derivative 17) to 159.93 ppm (C4' of indole derivative 23) relative to deuteride chloroform (CDCl3, 77.0 ppm) or dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO, 39.50 ppm) as internal reference in CDCl3 or DMSO-d6 solutions have been collected from literature for thirty 2-functionalized 5-(methylsulfonyl)-1-phenyl-1H-indole derivatives containing different substituted groups. An effective quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models were built using hybrid method combining genetic algorithm (GA) based on stepwise selection multiple linear regression (SWS-MLR) as feature-selection tools and correlation models between each carbon atom of indole derivative and calculated descriptors. Each compound was depicted by molecular structural descriptors that encode constitutional, topological, geometrical, electrostatic, and quantum chemical features. The accuracy of all developed models were confirmed using different types of internal and external procedures and various statistical tests. Furthermore, the domain of applicability for each model which indicates the area of reliable predictions was defined.

The impact of shift work and organizational work climate on health outcomes in nurses.

PubMed

von Treuer, Kathryn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Little, Glenn

2014-10-01

Shift workers have a higher rate of negative health outcomes than day shift workers. Few studies however, have examined the role of difference in workplace environment between shifts itself on such health measures. This study investigated variation in organizational climate across different types of shift work and health outcomes in nurses. Participants (n = 142) were nursing staff from a metropolitan Melbourne hospital. Demographic items elicited the type of shift worked, while the Work Environment Scale and the General Health Questionnaire measured organizational climate and health respectively. Analysis supported the hypotheses that different organizational climates occurred across different shifts, and that different organizational climate factors predicted poor health outcomes. Shift work alone was not found to predict health outcomes. Specifically, permanent night shift workers had significantly lower coworker cohesion scores compared with rotating day and evening shift workers and significantly higher managerial control scores compared with day shift workers. Further, coworker cohesion and involvement were found to be significant predictors of somatic problems. These findings suggest that differences in organizational climate between shifts accounts for the variation in health outcomes associated with shift work. Therefore, increased workplace cohesion and involvement, and decreased work pressure, may mitigate the negative health outcomes of shift workers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

PREDICTING CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS FOR MAMMALS: HOW GOOD ARE THE MODELS?

EPA Science Inventory

In order to manage wildlife and conserve biodiversity, it is critical that we understand the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions. Several different approaches to predicting climate-induced geographic range shifts have been proposed to address this proble...

Inversion of Qubit Energy Levels in Qubit-Oscillator Circuits in the Deep-Strong-Coupling Regime.

PubMed

Yoshihara, F; Fuse, T; Ao, Z; Ashhab, S; Kakuyanagi, K; Saito, S; Aoki, T; Koshino, K; Semba, K

2018-05-04

We report on experimentally measured light shifts of superconducting flux qubits deep-strongly coupled to LC oscillators, where the coupling constants are comparable to the qubit and oscillator resonance frequencies. By using two-tone spectroscopy, the energies of the six lowest levels of each circuit are determined. We find huge Lamb shifts that exceed 90% of the bare qubit frequencies and inversions of the qubits' ground and excited states when there are a finite number of photons in the oscillator. Our experimental results agree with theoretical predictions based on the quantum Rabi model.

Inversion of Qubit Energy Levels in Qubit-Oscillator Circuits in the Deep-Strong-Coupling Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshihara, F.; Fuse, T.; Ao, Z.; Ashhab, S.; Kakuyanagi, K.; Saito, S.; Aoki, T.; Koshino, K.; Semba, K.

2018-05-01

We report on experimentally measured light shifts of superconducting flux qubits deep-strongly coupled to L C oscillators, where the coupling constants are comparable to the qubit and oscillator resonance frequencies. By using two-tone spectroscopy, the energies of the six lowest levels of each circuit are determined. We find huge Lamb shifts that exceed 90% of the bare qubit frequencies and inversions of the qubits' ground and excited states when there are a finite number of photons in the oscillator. Our experimental results agree with theoretical predictions based on the quantum Rabi model.

Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

2011-12-01

There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

Intermolecular shielding contributions studied by modeling the 13C chemical-shift tensors of organic single crystals with plane waves

PubMed Central

Johnston, Jessica C.; Iuliucci, Robbie J.; Facelli, Julio C.; Fitzgerald, George; Mueller, Karl T.

2009-01-01

In order to predict accurately the chemical shift of NMR-active nuclei in solid phase systems, magnetic shielding calculations must be capable of considering the complete lattice structure. Here we assess the accuracy of the density functional theory gauge-including projector augmented wave method, which uses pseudopotentials to approximate the nodal structure of the core electrons, to determine the magnetic properties of crystals by predicting the full chemical-shift tensors of all 13C nuclides in 14 organic single crystals from which experimental tensors have previously been reported. Plane-wave methods use periodic boundary conditions to incorporate the lattice structure, providing a substantial improvement for modeling the chemical shifts in hydrogen-bonded systems. Principal tensor components can now be predicted to an accuracy that approaches the typical experimental uncertainty. Moreover, methods that include the full solid-phase structure enable geometry optimizations to be performed on the input structures prior to calculation of the shielding. Improvement after optimization is noted here even when neutron diffraction data are used for determining the initial structures. After geometry optimization, the isotropic shift can be predicted to within 1 ppm. PMID:19831448

Adaptation, acclimation, and assembly: How optimality principles govern the scaling of form, function, and diversity of ecosystem function in the light of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, B. J.

2016-12-01

The link between variation in species-specific traits - due to acclimation, adaptation, and how ecological communities assemble in time and space - and larger scale ecosystem processes is an important focus for global change research. Understanding such linkages requires synthesis of evolutionary, biogeograpahic, and biogeochemical approaches. Recent observations reveal several paradoxical patterns across ecosystems. Optimality principles provide a novel framework for generating numerous predictions for how ecosystems have and will reorganize and respond to climate change. Tropical elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can ramify to influence tropical forest diversity and ecosystem functioning. We tested several new predictions from trait- and metabolic scaling theories by assessing the covariation between climate, traits, biomass and gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) across tropical forest plots spanning elevation gradients. We measured multiple leaf physiological, morphological, and stoichiometric traits linked to variation in tree growth. Consistent with theory, observed decreases in NPP and GPP with temperature were best predicted by forest biomass, and scaled allometrically as predicted by theory but the effect of temperature was much less, characterized by a kinetic response much lower ( 0.1eV) than predicted ( 0.65eV). This is likely due to an observed exponential increase in the mean community leaf P:N ratio and photosynthetic nutrient use efficiency with decreases in temperature. Our results are consistent with predictions from Trait Driver Theory, where adaptive/acclamatory shifts in plant traits compensate for the kinetic effects of temperature on tree growth. Further, most of the traits measured showed significantly skewed trait distributions consistent with recent observations that observed shifts in species composition. The development of trait-based scaling theory provides a robust basis to predict how shifts in climate have and will influence functional composition and ecosystem functioning. Together, these results highlight the potential critical importance optimality principles for understanding the role of the biosphere within the integrated earth system.

Re-construction of action awareness depends on an internal model of action-outcome timing.

PubMed

Stenner, Max-Philipp; Bauer, Markus; Machts, Judith; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Haggard, Patrick; Dolan, Raymond J

2014-04-01

The subjective time of an instrumental action is shifted towards its outcome. This temporal binding effect is partially retrospective, i.e., occurs upon outcome perception. Retrospective binding is thought to reflect post-hoc inference on agency based on sensory evidence of the action - outcome association. However, many previous binding paradigms cannot exclude the possibility that retrospective binding results from bottom-up interference of sensory outcome processing with action awareness and is functionally unrelated to the processing of the action - outcome association. Here, we keep bottom-up interference constant and use a contextual manipulation instead. We demonstrate a shift of subjective action time by its outcome in a context of variable outcome timing. Crucially, this shift is absent when there is no such variability. Thus, retrospective action binding reflects a context-dependent, model-based phenomenon. Such top-down re-construction of action awareness seems to bias agency attribution when outcome predictability is low. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Re-construction of action awareness depends on an internal model of action-outcome timing

PubMed Central

Stenner, Max-Philipp; Bauer, Markus; Machts, Judith; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Haggard, Patrick; Dolan, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

The subjective time of an instrumental action is shifted towards its outcome. This temporal binding effect is partially retrospective, i.e., occurs upon outcome perception. Retrospective binding is thought to reflect post-hoc inference on agency based on sensory evidence of the action – outcome association. However, many previous binding paradigms cannot exclude the possibility that retrospective binding results from bottom-up interference of sensory outcome processing with action awareness and is functionally unrelated to the processing of the action – outcome association. Here, we keep bottom-up interference constant and use a contextual manipulation instead. We demonstrate a shift of subjective action time by its outcome in a context of variable outcome timing. Crucially, this shift is absent when there is no such variability. Thus, retrospective action binding reflects a context-dependent, model-based phenomenon. Such top-down re-construction of action awareness seems to bias agency attribution when outcome predictability is low. PMID:24555983

A Model for Ferroelectric Phase Shifters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanofsky, Robert R.; Qureshi, A. Haq

2000-01-01

Novel microwave phase shifters consisting of coupled microstrip lines on thin ferroelectric films have been demonstrated recently. A theoretical model useful for predicting the propagation characteristics (insertion phase shift, dielectric loss, impedance, and bandwidth) is presented here. The model is based on a variational solution for line capacitance and coupled strip transmission line theory.

The End of Flat Earth Economics & the Transition to Renewable Resource Societies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Hazel

1978-01-01

A post-industrial revolution is predicted for the future with an accompanying shift of focus from simple, brute force technolgies, based on cheap, accessible resources and energy, to a second generation of more subtle, refined technologies grounded in a much deeper understanding of biological and ecological realities. (Author/BB)

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

Growth dynamics of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles undergoing an ontogenetic habitat shift.

PubMed

Ramirez, Matthew D; Avens, Larisa; Seminoff, Jeffrey A; Goshe, Lisa R; Heppell, Selina S

2017-04-01

Ontogenetic niche theory predicts that individuals may undergo one or more changes in habitat or diet throughout their lifetime to maintain optimal growth rates, or to optimize trade-offs between mortality risk and growth. We combine skeletochronological and stable nitrogen isotope (δ 15 N) analyses of sea turtle humeri (n = 61) to characterize the growth dynamics of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) during an oceanic-to-neritic ontogenetic shift. The primary objective of this study was to determine how ontogenetic niche theory extends to sea turtles, and to individuals with different patterns of resource use (discrete shifters, n = 23; facultative shifters n = 14; non-shifters, n = 24). Mean growth rates peaked at the start of the ontogenetic shift (based on change in δ 15 N values), but returned to pre-shift levels within 2 years. Turtles generally only experienced 1 year of relatively high growth, but the timing of peak growth relative to the start of an ontogenetic shift varied among individuals (before, n = 14; during, n = 12; after, n = 8). Furthermore, no reduction in growth preceded the transition, as is predicted by ontogenetic niche theory. Annual growth rates were similar between non-transitioning turtles resident in oceanic and neritic habitats and turtles displaying alternative patterns of resource use. These results suggest that factors other than maximization of size-specific growth may more strongly influence the timing of ontogenetic shifts in loggerhead sea turtles, and that alternative patterns of resource use may have limited influence on somatic growth and age at maturation in this species.

Prognostics Health Management Model for LED Package Failure Under Contaminated Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Zhang, Hao; Davis, J Lynn

2015-06-06

The reliability consideration of LED products includes both luminous flux drop and color shift. Previous research either talks about luminous maintenance or color shift, because luminous flux degradation usually takes very long time to observe. In this paper, the impact of a VOC (volatile organic compound) contaminated luminous flux and color stability are examined. As a result, both luminous degradation and color shift had been recorded in a short time. Test samples are white, phosphor-converted, high-power LED packages. Absolute radiant flux is measured with integrating sphere system to calculate the luminous flux. Luminous flux degradation and color shift distance weremore » plotted versus aging time to show the degradation pattern. A prognostic health management (PHM) method based on the state variables and state estimator have been proposed in this paper. In this PHM framework, unscented kalman filter (UKF) was deployed as the carrier of all states. During the estimation process, third order dynamic transfer function was used to implement the PHM framework. Both of the luminous flux and color shift distance have been used as the state variable with the same PHM framework to exam the robustness of the method. Predicted remaining useful life is calculated at every measurement point to compare with the tested remaining useful life. The result shows that state estimator can be used as the method for the PHM of LED degradation with respect to both luminous flux and color shift distance. The prediction of remaining useful life of LED package, made by the states estimator and data driven approach, falls in the acceptable error-bounds (20%) after a short training of the estimator.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Zang, Hao; Davis, J Lynn

The reliability of LED products may be affected by both luminous flux drop and color shift. Previous research on the topic focuses on either luminous maintenance or color shift. However, luminous flux degradation usually takes very long time to observe in LEDs under normal operating conditions. In this paper, the impact of a VOC (volatile organic compound) contaminated luminous flux and color stability are examined. As a result, both luminous degradation and color shift had been recorded in a short time. Test samples are white, phosphorconverted, high-power LED packages. Absolute radiant flux is measured with integrating sphere system to calculatemore » the luminous flux. Luminous flux degradation and color shift distance were plotted versus aging time to show the degradation pattern. A prognostic health management (PHM) method based on the state variables and state estimator have been proposed in this paper. In this PHM framework, unscented kalman filter (UKF) was deployed as the carrier of all states. During the estimation process, third order dynamic transfer function was used to implement the PHM framework. Both of the luminous flux and color shift distance have been used as the state variable with the same PHM framework to exam the robustness of the method. Predicted remaining useful life is calculated at every measurement point to compare with the tested remaining useful life. The result shows that state estimator can be used as the method for the PHM of LED degradation with respect to both luminous flux and color shift distance. The prediction of remaining useful life of LED package, made by the states estimator and data driven approach, falls in the acceptable errorbounds (20%) after a short training of the estimator.« less

Reconsidering Dark Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisenberg, Sol

2012-02-01

There is a difference between (a) distances of remote standard candles, SN Type Ia, and (b) distances based upon their red shifts. It was believed that these galaxies had accelerated and used Dark Energy. There are 2 assumptions not supported by observations. The first is that the red shifts for remote galaxies are due to the Doppler Effect associated with receding velocity. Hubble only observed red shifts as a function of distances of known stars, and never measured receding velocities. He suggested the Doppler Effect as a cause, but expressed doubt about the suggestion. There are other causes for a red shift - gravity red shift of light from the sun, and loss of photon energy by gravity interaction of photons with dust and gas in interstellar space. The second assumption is that Hubble's linear relationship between the observed red shift and the distance will be valid at very large distances. Increasing red shift corresponds to a decrease of photon energy towards zero, and cannot be used for very remote stars - where the photon energy approaches zero and the red shift dependence becomes nonlinear and asymptotic to a constant value. This predicts the difference between the galaxy distances and the distances determined from their observed red shifts. The recent Nobel Prize (to Schmidt, Reis, and Perlmutter) needs reexamination. Two basic assumptions that are the foundation of their work may not be accurate. Details are in my earlier essays in ``The Misunderstood Universe'', 2009. .

Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.

PubMed

Woodin, Sarah A; Hilbish, Thomas J; Helmuth, Brian; Jones, Sierra J; Wethey, David S

2013-09-01

Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.

Modeling the effects of dispersal on predicted contemporary and future fisher (Martes pennanti) distribution in the U.S

Treesearch

Lucretia Olson; M. Schwartz

2013-01-01

Many species at high trophic levels are predicted to be impacted by shifts in habitat associated with climate change. While temperate coniferous forests are predicted to be one of the least affected ecosystems, the impact of shifting habitat on terrestrial carnivores that live within these ecosystems may depend on the dispersal rates of the species and the patchiness...

Insight into the localized surface plasmon resonance property of core-satellite nanostructures: Theoretical prediction and experimental validation.

PubMed

Song, Dongxing; Jing, Dengwei

2017-11-01

Regulation of the localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) of nanoparticles by changing the dielectric constant of the surrounding medium has been exploited in many practical applications. In this study, using Ag-nanodot-decorated SiO 2 nanoparticles (Ag-decorated SiO 2 NPs) with different solvents, we investigated the potential of using such core-satellite nanostructures as a liquid sensor for the determination of melamine. The dielectric constant effect of the surrounding medium on the LSPR property was given particular attention. It was found that colloids with water as solvent display a LSPR shift of 14nm, and this value was 18nm for ethanol. For colloids with methanol and glycol as solvents, the peak shifts are negligible. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulations were used to assign the LSPR peaks of Ag-decorated SiO 2 NPs and to monitor the effect of the substrate and solvent on the LSPR properties. In the calculations, the wavelength positions of the LSPR peaks for Ag-decorated SiO 2 NPs in various solvents were successfully predicted in the order methanol

Study Predicts Dramatic Shifts in Enrollments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evangelauf, Jean

1991-01-01

A new study detailing demographic shifts in the college-age population predicts growth in minority high school graduates and shrinkage or maintenance of White graduation rates. The report is the first to provide state-by-state figures on actual and projected graduates from 1986 through 1995 by racial and ethnic group. (MSE)

Accelerating recovery from jet lag: prediction from a multi-oscillator model and its experimental confirmation in model animals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kori, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Yoshiaki; Okamura, Hitoshi

2017-04-01

The endogenous circadian clock drives oscillations that are completely synchronized with the environmental day-night rhythms with a period of approximately 24 hours. Temporal misalignment between one’s internal circadian clock and the external solar time often occurs in shift workers and long-distance travelers; such misalignments are accompanied by sleep disturbances and gastrointestinal distress. Repeated exposure to jet lag and rotating shift work increases the risk of lifestyle-related diseases, such as cardiovascular complaints and metabolic insufficiencies. However, the mechanism behind the disruption of one’s internal clock is not well understood. In this paper, we therefore present a new theoretical concept called “jet lag separatrix” to understand circadian clock disruption and slow recovery from jet lag based on the mathematical model describing the hierarchical structure of the circadian clock. To demonstrate the utility of our theoretical study, we applied it to predict that re-entrainment via a two-step jet lag in which a four-hour shift of the light-dark cycle is given in the span of two successive days requires fewer days than when given as a single eight-hour shift. We experimentally verified the feasibility of our theory in C57BL/6 strain mice, with results indicating that this pre-exposure of jet lag is indeed beneficial.

Cognitive shifting and externalising problem behaviour in intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Visser, E M; Berger, H J C; Van Schrojenstein Lantman-De Valk, H M J; Prins, J B; Teunisse, J P

2015-08-01

Behavioural problems are frequently reported in residential care for people with an intellectual disability (ID) in particular when they are additionally diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). There are indications that impairment in cognitive shifting may be associated with problem behaviour. The objectives of this study were (1) to examine the relationship of cognitive shifting and severity of ASD symptoms with externalising problem behaviour in individuals with ID, with and without ASD, and (2) to examine whether a diagnosis based on shifting impairment is more predictive of externalising problem behaviour than an ASD diagnosis. Participants consisted of adolescents and young adults with mild ID, with and without ASD (n = 41). Pearson intercorrelations were computed to explore the relationship between shifting impairment and severity of ASD symptoms on the one hand and ratings of externalising problem behaviour on the other hand. t-Tests were performed to analyse differences in externalising problem behaviour. Unlike ASD symptom severity, shifting scores were found to be associated with externalising problem behaviour, but only if shifting was measured using rating scales and not when using neuropsychological tasks. Externalising problem behaviour scores significantly differed when groups were classified according to shifting impairment (impaired vs. non-impaired) but not when they were classified according to ID and ASD diagnoses. It is proposed to use a cognition-based approach when analysing problem behaviour, thus concentrating not so much on ID and ASD diagnosis and their corresponding symptoms, but rather placing the focus on cognitive symptoms. © 2015 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of heterogeneous water vapor uptake by metal iodide cluster ions via differential mobility analysis-mass spectrometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oberreit, Derek; Fluid Measurement Technologies, Inc., Saint Paul, Minnesota 55110; Rawat, Vivek K.

The sorption of vapor molecules onto pre-existing nanometer sized clusters is of importance in understanding particle formation and growth in gas phase environments and devising gas phase separation schemes. Here, we apply a differential mobility analyzer-mass spectrometer based approach to observe directly the sorption of vapor molecules onto iodide cluster ions of the form (MI){sub x}M{sup +} (x = 1-13, M = Na, K, Rb, or Cs) in air at 300 K and with water saturation ratios in the 0.01-0.64 range. The extent of vapor sorption is quantified in measurements by the shift in collision cross section (CCS) for eachmore » ion. We find that CCS measurements are sensitive enough to detect the transient binding of several vapor molecules to clusters, which shift CCSs by only several percent. At the same time, for the highest saturation ratios examined, we observed CCS shifts of up to 45%. For x < 4, cesium, rubidium, and potassium iodide cluster ions are found to uptake water to a similar extent, while sodium iodide clusters uptake less water. For x ≥ 4, sodium iodide cluster ions uptake proportionally more water vapor than rubidium and potassium iodide cluster ions, while cesium iodide ions exhibit less uptake. Measured CCS shifts are compared to predictions based upon a Kelvin-Thomson-Raoult (KTR) model as well as a Langmuir adsorption model. We find that the Langmuir adsorption model can be fit well to measurements. Meanwhile, KTR predictions deviate from measurements, which suggests that the earliest stages of vapor uptake by nanometer scale species are not well described by the KTR model.« less

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

Retrieval-Induced vs. Context-Induced Forgetting: Does Retrieval-Induced Forgetting Depend on Context Shifts?

PubMed Central

Soares, Julia S.; Polack, Cody W.; Miller, Ralph R.

2015-01-01

Retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) is the observation that retrieval of target information causes forgetting of related non-target information. A number of accounts of this phenomenon have been proposed, including a context-shift based account (Jonker, Seli, & Macleod, 2013). This account proposes that RIF occurs due to the context shift from study to retrieval practice, provided there is little context shift between retrieval practice and test phases. We tested both claims put forth by this context account. In Experiment 1, we degraded the context shift between study and retrieval practice by implementing a generative study condition that was highly similar to retrieval practice. We observed no degradation of RIF for these generated exemplars relative to a conventional study control. In Experiment 2, we conceptually replicated the finding of RIF following generative study, and tested whether context differences between each of the three phases affected the size of RIF. Our findings were again contrary to the predictions of the context account. Conjointly, the two experiments refute arguments about the potential inadequacy of our context shifts that could be used to explain either result alone. Overall, our results are most consistent with an inhibitory account of RIF (e.g., Anderson, 2003). PMID:26389628

Enhancing 18F-FDG-PET/CT analysis in lung cancer patients. Is CT-CT image fusion helpful in predicting pleural involvement? A pilot study.

PubMed

Kapfhammer, A; Winkens, T; Lesser, T; Reissig, A; Steinert, M; Freesmeyer, M

2015-01-01

To retrospectively evaluate the feasibility and value of CT-CT image fusion to assess the shift of peripheral lung cancers with/-out chest wall infiltration, comparing computed tomography acquisitions in shallow-breathing (SB-CT) and deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH-CT) in patients undergoing FDG-PET/CT for lung cancer staging. Image fusion of SB-CT and DIBH-CT was performed with a multimodal workstation used for nuclear medicine fusion imaging. The distance of intrathoracic landmarks and the positional shift of tumours were measured using semi-transparent overlay of both CT series. Statistical analyses were adjusted for confounders of tumour infiltration. Cutoff levels were calculated for prediction of no-/infiltration. Lateral pleural recessus and diaphragm showed the largest respiratory excursions. Infiltrating lung cancers showed more limited respiratory shifts than non-infiltrating tumours. A large respiratory tumour-motility accurately predicted non-infiltration. However, the tumour shifts were limited and variable, limiting the accuracy of prediction. This pilot fusion study proved feasible and allowed a simple analysis of the respiratory shifts of peripheral lung tumours using CT-CT image fusion in a PET/CT setting. The calculated cutoffs were useful in predicting the exclusion of chest wall infiltration but did not accurately predict tumour infiltration. This method can provide additional qualitative information in patients with lung cancers with contact to the chest wall but unclear CT evidence of infiltration undergoing PET/CT without the need of additional investigations. Considering the small sample size investigated, further studies are necessary to verify the obtained results.

Effects of Aging-Time Reference on the Long Term Behavior of the IM7/K3B Composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veazie, David R.; Gates, Thomas S.

1998-01-01

An analytical study was undertaken to investigate the effects of the time-based shift reference on the long term behavior of the graphite reinforced thermoplastic polyimide composite IM7/K3B at elevated temperature. Creep compliance and the effects of physical aging on the time dependent response was measured for uniaxial loading at several isothermal conditions below the glass transition temperature (T(sub g). Two matrix dominated loading modes, shear and transverse, were investigated in tension and compression. The momentary sequenced creep/aging curves were collapsed through a horizontal (time) shift using the shortest, middle and longest aging time curve as the reference curve. Linear viscoelasticity was used to characterize the creep/recovery behavior and superposition techniques were used to establish the physical aging related material constants. The use of effective time expressions in a laminated plate model allowed for the prediction of long term creep compliance. The effect of using different reference curves with time/aging-time superposition was most sensitive to the physical aging shift rate at lower test temperatures. Depending on the loading mode, the reference curve used can result in a more accurate long term prediction, especially at lower test temperatures.

Reliable resonance assignments of selected residues of proteins with known structure based on empirical NMR chemical shift prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Da-Wei; Meng, Dan; Brüschweiler, Rafael

2015-05-01

A robust NMR resonance assignment method is introduced for proteins whose 3D structure has previously been determined by X-ray crystallography. The goal of the method is to obtain a subset of correct assignments from a parsimonious set of 3D NMR experiments of 15N, 13C labeled proteins. Chemical shifts of sequential residue pairs are predicted from static protein structures using PPM_One, which are then compared with the corresponding experimental shifts. Globally optimized weighted matching identifies the assignments that are robust with respect to small changes in NMR cross-peak positions. The method, termed PASSPORT, is demonstrated for 4 proteins with 100-250 amino acids using 3D NHCA and a 3D CBCA(CO)NH experiments as input producing correct assignments with high reliability for 22% of the residues. The method, which works best for Gly, Ala, Ser, and Thr residues, provides assignments that serve as anchor points for additional assignments by both manual and semi-automated methods or they can be directly used for further studies, e.g. on ligand binding, protein dynamics, or post-translational modification, such as phosphorylation.

Reliable Resonance Assignments of Selected Residues of Proteins with Known Structure Based on Empirical NMR Chemical Shift Prediction

PubMed Central

Li, Da-Wei; Meng, Dan; Brüschweiler, Rafael

2015-01-01

A robust NMR resonance assignment method is introduced for proteins whose 3D structure has previously been determined by X-ray crystallography. The goal of the method is to obtain a subset of correct assignments from a parsimonious set of 3D NMR experiments of 15N, 13C labeled proteins. Chemical shifts of sequential residue pairs are predicted from static protein structures using PPM_One, which are then compared with the corresponding experimental shifts. Globally optimized weighted matching identifies the assignments that are robust with respect to small changes in NMR cross-peak positions. The method, termed PASSPORT, is demonstrated for 4 proteins with 100 – 250 amino acids using 3D NHCA and a 3D CBCA(CO)NH experiments as input producing correct assignments with high reliability for 22% of the residues. The method, which works best for Gly, Ala, Ser, and Thr residues, provides assignments that serve as anchor points for additional assignments by both manual and semi-automated methods or they can be directly used for further studies, e.g. on ligand binding, protein dynamics, or post-translational modification, such as phosphorylation. PMID:25863893

"Ask Ernö": a self-learning tool for assignment and prediction of nuclear magnetic resonance spectra.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrés M; Bernal, Andrés; Dieden, Reiner; Patiny, Luc; Wist, Julien

2016-01-01

We present "Ask Ernö", a self-learning system for the automatic analysis of NMR spectra, consisting of integrated chemical shift assignment and prediction tools. The output of the automatic assignment component initializes and improves a database of assigned protons that is used by the chemical shift predictor. In turn, the predictions provided by the latter facilitate improvement of the assignment process. Iteration on these steps allows Ask Ernö to improve its ability to assign and predict spectra without any prior knowledge or assistance from human experts. This concept was tested by training such a system with a dataset of 2341 molecules and their (1)H-NMR spectra, and evaluating the accuracy of chemical shift predictions on a test set of 298 partially assigned molecules (2007 assigned protons). After 10 iterations, Ask Ernö was able to decrease its prediction error by 17 %, reaching an average error of 0.265 ppm. Over 60 % of the test chemical shifts were predicted within 0.2 ppm, while only 5 % still presented a prediction error of more than 1 ppm. Ask Ernö introduces an innovative approach to automatic NMR analysis that constantly learns and improves when provided with new data. Furthermore, it completely avoids the need for manually assigned spectra. This system has the potential to be turned into a fully autonomous tool able to compete with the best alternatives currently available.Graphical abstractSelf-learning loop. Any progress in the prediction (forward problem) will improve the assignment ability (reverse problem) and vice versa.

Developing a New Quantitative Account of Backward Masking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Francis, Gregory

2003-01-01

A new general explanation for u-shaped backward masking is analyzed and found to predict shifts in the interstimulus interval (ISI) that produces strongest masking. This predicted shift is then compared to six sets of masking data. The resulting comparisons force the general explanation to make certain assumptions to account for the data. In this…

Updating and Not Shifting Predicts Learning Performance in Young and Middle-Aged Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gijselaers, Hieronymus J. M.; Meijs, Celeste; Neroni, Joyce; Kirschner, Paul A.; de Groot, Renate H. M.

2017-01-01

The goal of this study was to investigate whether single executive function (EF) tests were predictive for learning performance in mainly young and middle-aged adults. The tests measured shifting and updating. Processing speed was also measured. In an observational study, cognitive performance and learning performance were measured objectively in…

A Theoretical Model for Thin Film Ferroelectric Coupled Microstripline Phase Shifters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanofsky, R. R.; Quereshi, A. H.

2000-01-01

Novel microwave phase shifters consisting of coupled microstriplines on thin ferroelectric films have been demonstrated recently. A theoretical model useful for predicting the propagation characteristics (insertion phase shift, dielectric loss, impedance, and bandwidth) is presented here. The model is based on a variational solution for line capacitance and coupled strip transmission line theory.

Contralateral Disconnection of the Rat Prelimbic Cortex and Dorsomedial Striatum Impairs Cue-Guided Behavioral Switching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Phillip M.; Ragozzino, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Switches in reward outcomes or reward-predictive cues are two fundamental ways in which information is used to flexibly shift response patterns. The rat prelimbic cortex and dorsomedial striatum support behavioral flexibility based on a change in outcomes. The present experiments investigated whether these two brain regions are necessary for…

Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities

Treesearch

J. Firn; J.L. Moore; A.S. MacDougall; E.T. Borer; E.W. Seabloom; J. HilleRisLambers; S. Harpole; E.E. Cleland; C.S. Brown; J.M.H. Knops; S.M. Prober; D.A. Pyke; K.A. Farrell; J.D. Bakker; L.R. O’Halloran; P.B. Adler; S.L. Collins; C.M. D’Antonio; M.J. Crawley; E.M. Wolkovich; K.J. La Pierre; B.A. Melbourne; Y. Hautier; J.W. Morgan; A.D.B. Leakey; A.D. Kay; R.L. McCulley; K.F. Davies; C.J. Stevens; C.J. Chu

2011-01-01

Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at...

Microclimate predicts within-season distribution dynamics of montane forest birds

Treesearch

Sarah J.K. Frey; Adam S. Hadley; Matthew G. Betts; Mark Robertson

2016-01-01

Aim: Climate changes are anticipated to have pervasive negative effects on biodiversity and are expected to necessitate widespread range shifts or contractions. Such projections are based upon the assumptions that (1) species respond primarily to broad-scale climatic regimes, or (2) that variation in climate at fine spatial scales is less relevant at coarse spatial...

The Keys to the White House

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lichtman, Allan J.

2012-01-01

The Keys to the White House is a historically-based system for predicting the result of the popular vote in American presidential elections. The Keys system tracks the big picture of how well the party holding the White House has governed and does not shift with events of the campaign. This model gives specificity to the idea that it is…

Making value a priority: how this paradigm shift is changing the landscape in health care.

PubMed

Kimberly, John; Cronk, Imran

2016-10-01

The world of health care is changing dramatically, as reflected in the number, magnitude, and scope of innovative new approaches-to how illness is treated and how better health is promoted-that are being implemented around the globe. The changes triggered by these initiatives affect both how care is organized, managed, and paid for and the kinds of approaches that are being developed to keep people healthy. Underlying these changes is a more fundamental paradigm shift, a shift in the priority given to "value" in the formulation of policy and management practice. This brief essay highlights five trends that are central in this shift: increasing emphasis on health promotion, movement toward value-based payment, advances in digital/mobile technology, exploitation of big data, and changes in support for biomedical research. Each of these has its own value controversies, and the individual impact of each is impossible to predict. Collectively, however, their impact is likely to be significant. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

2016-03-01

Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

Dissociating error-based and reinforcement-based loss functions during sensorimotor learning

PubMed Central

McGregor, Heather R.; Mohatarem, Ayman

2017-01-01

It has been proposed that the sensorimotor system uses a loss (cost) function to evaluate potential movements in the presence of random noise. Here we test this idea in the context of both error-based and reinforcement-based learning. In a reaching task, we laterally shifted a cursor relative to true hand position using a skewed probability distribution. This skewed probability distribution had its mean and mode separated, allowing us to dissociate the optimal predictions of an error-based loss function (corresponding to the mean of the lateral shifts) and a reinforcement-based loss function (corresponding to the mode). We then examined how the sensorimotor system uses error feedback and reinforcement feedback, in isolation and combination, when deciding where to aim the hand during a reach. We found that participants compensated differently to the same skewed lateral shift distribution depending on the form of feedback they received. When provided with error feedback, participants compensated based on the mean of the skewed noise. When provided with reinforcement feedback, participants compensated based on the mode. Participants receiving both error and reinforcement feedback continued to compensate based on the mean while repeatedly missing the target, despite receiving auditory, visual and monetary reinforcement feedback that rewarded hitting the target. Our work shows that reinforcement-based and error-based learning are separable and can occur independently. Further, when error and reinforcement feedback are in conflict, the sensorimotor system heavily weights error feedback over reinforcement feedback. PMID:28753634

Dissociating error-based and reinforcement-based loss functions during sensorimotor learning.

PubMed

Cashaback, Joshua G A; McGregor, Heather R; Mohatarem, Ayman; Gribble, Paul L

2017-07-01

It has been proposed that the sensorimotor system uses a loss (cost) function to evaluate potential movements in the presence of random noise. Here we test this idea in the context of both error-based and reinforcement-based learning. In a reaching task, we laterally shifted a cursor relative to true hand position using a skewed probability distribution. This skewed probability distribution had its mean and mode separated, allowing us to dissociate the optimal predictions of an error-based loss function (corresponding to the mean of the lateral shifts) and a reinforcement-based loss function (corresponding to the mode). We then examined how the sensorimotor system uses error feedback and reinforcement feedback, in isolation and combination, when deciding where to aim the hand during a reach. We found that participants compensated differently to the same skewed lateral shift distribution depending on the form of feedback they received. When provided with error feedback, participants compensated based on the mean of the skewed noise. When provided with reinforcement feedback, participants compensated based on the mode. Participants receiving both error and reinforcement feedback continued to compensate based on the mean while repeatedly missing the target, despite receiving auditory, visual and monetary reinforcement feedback that rewarded hitting the target. Our work shows that reinforcement-based and error-based learning are separable and can occur independently. Further, when error and reinforcement feedback are in conflict, the sensorimotor system heavily weights error feedback over reinforcement feedback.

Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

PubMed

Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

2016-09-01

Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xing, Y; Macq, B; Bondar, L

Purpose: To quantify the accuracy in predicting the Bragg peak position using simulated in-room measurements of prompt gamma (PG) emissions for realistic treatment error scenarios that combine several sources of errors. Methods: Prompt gamma measurements by a knife-edge slit camera were simulated using an experimentally validated analytical simulation tool. Simulations were performed, for 143 treatment error scenarios, on an anthropomorphic phantom and a pencil beam scanning plan for nasal cavity. Three types of errors were considered: translation along each axis, rotation around each axis, and CT-calibration errors with magnitude ranging respectively, between −3 and 3 mm, −5 and 5 degrees,more » and between −5 and +5%. We investigated the correlation between the Bragg peak (BP) shift and the horizontal shift of PG profiles. The shifts were calculated between the planned (reference) position and the position by the error scenario. The prediction error for one spot was calculated as the absolute difference between the PG profile shift and the BP shift. Results: The PG shift was significantly and strongly correlated with the BP shift for 92% of the cases (p<0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.8). Moderate but significant correlations were obtained for all cases that considered only CT-calibration errors and for 1 case that combined translation and CT-errors (p<0.0001, R ranged between 0.61 and 0.8). The average prediction errors for the simulated scenarios ranged between 0.08±0.07 and 1.67±1.3 mm (grand mean 0.66±0.76 mm). The prediction error was moderately correlated with the value of the BP shift (p=0, R=0.64). For the simulated scenarios the average BP shift ranged between −8±6.5 mm and 3±1.1 mm. Scenarios that considered combinations of the largest treatment errors were associated with large BP shifts. Conclusion: Simulations of in-room measurements demonstrate that prompt gamma profiles provide reliable estimation of the Bragg peak position for complex error scenarios. Yafei Xing and Luiza Bondar are funded by BEWARE grants from the Walloon Region. The work presents simulations results for a prompt gamma camera prototype developed by IBA.« less

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.

PubMed

Crickenberger, Sam; Wethey, David S

2018-05-10

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Culture Influences Action Understanding in Infancy: Prediction of Actions Performed With Chopsticks and Spoons in Chinese and Swedish Infants.

PubMed

Green, Dorota; Li, Qi; Lockman, Jeffrey J; Gredebäck, Gustaf

2016-05-01

The cultural specificity of action prediction was assessed in 8-month-old Chinese and Swedish infants. Infants were presented with an actor eating with a spoon or chopsticks. Predictive goal-directed gaze shifts were examined using eye tracking. The results demonstrate that Chinese infants only predict the goal of eating actions performed with chopsticks, whereas Swedish infants exclusively predict the goal of eating actions performed with a spoon. Infants in neither culture predicted the goal of object manipulation actions (e.g., picking up food) performed with a spoon or chopsticks. The results support the view that multiple processes (both visual/cultural learning and motor-based direct matching processes) facilitate goal prediction during observation of other peoples' actions early in infancy. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Demographics, political power and economic growth.

PubMed

Holtz-eakin, D

1993-01-01

"Growth theory may be used to predict the response of saving, capital formation, and output growth to large demographic shifts. Such large shifts would also be expected to alter the demand for government services and the desired levels of taxation in the population. This paper extends the overlapping-generations model of economic growth to predict the evolution of government tax and spending policy through the course of a major demographic shift. Simulations suggest that this approach may yield valuable insights into the evolution of policy in the United States and other industrialized economies." excerpt

Clathrate Structure Determination by Combining Crystal Structure Prediction with Computational and Experimental 129Xe NMR Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Selent, Marcin; Nyman, Jonas; Roukala, Juho; Ilczyszyn, Marek; Oilunkaniemi, Raija; Bygrave, Peter J.; Laitinen, Risto; Jokisaari, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract An approach is presented for the structure determination of clathrates using NMR spectroscopy of enclathrated xenon to select from a set of predicted crystal structures. Crystal structure prediction methods have been used to generate an ensemble of putative structures of o‐ and m‐fluorophenol, whose previously unknown clathrate structures have been studied by 129Xe NMR spectroscopy. The high sensitivity of the 129Xe chemical shift tensor to the chemical environment and shape of the crystalline cavity makes it ideal as a probe for porous materials. The experimental powder NMR spectra can be used to directly confirm or reject hypothetical crystal structures generated by computational prediction, whose chemical shift tensors have been simulated using density functional theory. For each fluorophenol isomer one predicted crystal structure was found, whose measured and computed chemical shift tensors agree within experimental and computational error margins and these are thus proposed as the true fluorophenol xenon clathrate structures. PMID:28111848

Prediction and Validation of Mars Pathfinder Hypersonic Aerodynamic Data Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gnoffo, Peter A.; Braun, Robert D.; Weilmuenster, K. James; Mitcheltree, Robert A.; Engelund, Walter C.; Powell, Richard W.

1998-01-01

Postflight analysis of the Mars Pathfinder hypersonic, continuum aerodynamic data base is presented. Measured data include accelerations along the body axis and axis normal directions. Comparisons of preflight simulation and measurements show good agreement. The prediction of two static instabilities associated with movement of the sonic line from the shoulder to the nose and back was confirmed by measured normal accelerations. Reconstruction of atmospheric density during entry has an uncertainty directly proportional to the uncertainty in the predicted axial coefficient. The sensitivity of the moment coefficient to freestream density, kinetic models and center-of-gravity location are examined to provide additional consistency checks of the simulation with flight data. The atmospheric density as derived from axial coefficient and measured axial accelerations falls within the range required for sonic line shift and static stability transition as independently determined from normal accelerations.

Estimating replicate time shifts using Gaussian process regression

PubMed Central

Liu, Qiang; Andersen, Bogi; Smyth, Padhraic; Ihler, Alexander

2010-01-01

Motivation: Time-course gene expression datasets provide important insights into dynamic aspects of biological processes, such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle and organ development. In a typical microarray time-course experiment, measurements are obtained at each time point from multiple replicate samples. Accurately recovering the gene expression patterns from experimental observations is made challenging by both measurement noise and variation among replicates' rates of development. Prior work on this topic has focused on inference of expression patterns assuming that the replicate times are synchronized. We develop a statistical approach that simultaneously infers both (i) the underlying (hidden) expression profile for each gene, as well as (ii) the biological time for each individual replicate. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) combined with a probabilistic model that accounts for uncertainty about the biological development time of each replicate. Results: We apply GPR with uncertain measurement times to a microarray dataset of mRNA expression for the hair-growth cycle in mouse back skin, predicting both profile shapes and biological times for each replicate. The predicted time shifts show high consistency with independently obtained morphological estimates of relative development. We also show that the method systematically reduces prediction error on out-of-sample data, significantly reducing the mean squared error in a cross-validation study. Availability: Matlab code for GPR with uncertain time shifts is available at http://sli.ics.uci.edu/Code/GPRTimeshift/ Contact: ihler@ics.uci.edu PMID:20147305

Phonology and Handedness in Primary School: Predictions of the Right Shift Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smythe, Pamela; Annett, Marian

2006-01-01

Background: The right shift (RS) theory of handedness suggests that poor phonology may occur in the general population as a risk associated with absence of an agent of left cerebral speech, the hypothesised RS + gene. The theory predicts that poor phonology is associated with reduced bias to right-handedness. Methods: A representative cohort of…

Experimental characterization and modeling of isothermal and nonisothermal physical aging in glassy polymer films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yunlong

This dissertation focuses on nonisothermal physical aging of polymers from both experimental and theoretical aspects. The study concentrates on pure polymers rather than fiber-reinforced composites; this step removes several complicating factors to simplify the study. It is anticipated that the findings of this work can then be applied to composite materials applications. The physical aging tests in this work are performed using a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA). The viscoelastic response of glassy polymers under various loading and thermal histories are observed as stress-strain data at a series of time points. The first stage of the experimental work involves the characterization of the isothermal physical aging behavior of two advanced thermoplastics. The second stage conducts tests on the same materials with varying thermal histories and with long-term test duration. This forms the basis to assess and modify a nonisothermal physical aging model (KAHR-ate model). Based on the experimental findings, the KAHR-ate model has been revised by new correlations between aging shift factors and volume response; this revised model performed well in predicting the nonisothermal physical aging behavior of glassy polymers. In the work on isothermal physical aging, short-term creep and stress relaxation tests were performed at several temperatures within 15-35°C below the glass transition temperature (Tg) at various aging times, using the short-term test method established by Struik. Stress and strain levels were such that the materials remained in the linear viscoelastic regime. These curves were then shifted together to determine momentary master curves and shift rates. In order to validate the obtained isothermal physical aging behavior, the results of creep and stress relaxation testing were compared and shown to be consistent with one another using appropriate interconversion of the viscoelastic material functions. Time-temperature superposition of the master curves was also performed. The temperature shift factors and aging shift rates for both PEEK and PPS were consistent for both creep and stress relaxation test results. Nonisothermal physical aging was monitored by sequential short-term creep tests after a series of temperature jumps; the resulting strain histories were analyzed to determine aging shift factors (ate) for each of the creep tests. The nonisothermal aging response was predicted using the KAHR-ate model, which combines the KAHR model of volume recovery with a suitable linear relationship between aging shift factors and specific volume. The KAHR-ate model can be utilized to both predict aging response and to determine necessary model parameters from a set of aging shift factor data. For the PEEK and PPS materials considered in the current study, predictions of mechanical response were demonstrated to be in good agreement with the experimental results for several complicated thermal histories. In addition to short-term nonisothermal aging, long-term creep tests under identical thermal conditions were also analyzed. Effective time theory was unitized to predict long-term response under both isothermal and nonisothermal temperature histories. The long-term compliance after a series of temperature changes was predicted by the KAHR- ate model, and the theoretical predictions and experimental data showed good agreement for various thermal histories. Lastly, physical aging behavior of PPS near the glass transition temperature was investigated, in order to observe the mechanical response in the process of the evolution of the material into equilibrium. At several temperatures near Tg, the time need to reach equilibrium were determined by the creep test results at various aging times. In addition to isothermal physical aging, mechanical shift factors in the period of approaching equilibrium at a common temperature after temperature up-jumps and down-jumps are monitored from creep tests; prior to these temperature jumps, the materials were aged to reach equilibrium states. From these tests, asymmetry of approaching equilibrium phenomenon in ate was observed, which is first-time reported in the literature. This finding shows the similarity between the thermodynamic and mechanical properties during structural relaxation. This work will lead to improved understanding of the viscoelastic behavior of glassy polymers, which is important for better understanding and design of PMCs in elevated temperature applications. With the above findings, this dissertation deals with nonisothermal physical aging of glassy polymers, including both experimental characterization and constructing a framework for predictions of mechanical behavior of polymeric materials under complicated thermal conditions. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Effect of a Perturbation on the Chemical Equilibrium: Comparison with Le Châtelier's Principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez Torres, Emilio

2007-03-01

This article develops a general thermodynamic treatment to predict the direction of shift in a chemical equilibrium when it is subjected to a stress. This treatment gives an inequality that relates the change in the perturbed variable and the change that the equilibrium shift produces in the conjugated variable. To illustrate the generality of this approach, it has been applied to predict the direction of shift caused by changes of pressure, volume, and amount of substance. In this last case, the well-known unexpected shift in the ammonia synthesis equilibrium upon addition of nitrogen is easily explained. From the above referred inequality and the stability criteria of thermodynamics some conclusions have been obtained about the direction of shift in terms of extensive and extensive variables. This article is suitable for physical chemistry courses.

Accelerated fatigue durability of a high performance composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rotem, A.

1982-01-01

The fatigue behavior of multidirectional graphite-epoxy laminates was analyzed theoretically and experimentally in an effort to establish an accelerated testing methodology. Analysis of the failure mechanism in fatigue of the laminates led to the determination of the failure mode governing fracture. The nonlinear, cyclic-dependent shear modulus was used to calculate the changing stress field in the laminate during the fatigue loading. Fatigue tests were performed at three different temperatures: 25 C, 74 C, and 114 C. The prediction of the S-N curves was made based on the artificial static strength artificial static strength at a reference temperature and the fatigue functions associated with them. The prediction of an S-N curve at other temperatures was performed using shifting factors determined for the specific failure mode. For multidirectional laminates, different S-N curves at different temperatures could be predicted using these shifting factors. Different S-N curves at different temperatures occur only when the fatigue failure mode is matrix dominated. It was found that whenever the fatigue failure mode is fiber dominated, temperature, over the range investigated, had no influence on the fatigue life. These results permit the prediction of long-time, low temperature fatigue behavior from data obtained in short time, high temperature testing, for laminates governed by a matrix failure mode.

Protein backbone and sidechain torsion angles predicted from NMR chemical shifts using artificial neural networks

PubMed Central

Shen, Yang; Bax, Ad

2013-01-01

A new program, TALOS-N, is introduced for predicting protein backbone torsion angles from NMR chemical shifts. The program relies far more extensively on the use of trained artificial neural networks than its predecessor, TALOS+. Validation on an independent set of proteins indicates that backbone torsion angles can be predicted for a larger, ≥ 90% fraction of the residues, with an error rate smaller than ca 3.5%, using an acceptance criterion that is nearly two-fold tighter than that used previously, and a root mean square difference between predicted and crystallographically observed (φ,ψ) torsion angles of ca 12°. TALOS-N also reports sidechain χ1 rotameric states for about 50% of the residues, and a consistency with reference structures of 89%. The program includes a neural network trained to identify secondary structure from residue sequence and chemical shifts. PMID:23728592

Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century Beyond Environmental Chemicals

PubMed Central

Rovida, Costanza; Asakura, Shoji; Daneshian, Mardas; Hofman-Huether, Hana; Leist, Marcel; Meunier, Leo; Reif, David; Rossi, Anna; Schmutz, Markus; Valentin, Jean-Pierre; Zurlo, Joanne; Hartung, Thomas

2018-01-01

Summary After the publication of the report titled Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century – A Vision and a Strategy, many initiatives started to foster a major paradigm shift for toxicity testing – from apical endpoints in animal-based tests to mechanistic endpoints through delineation of pathways of toxicity (PoT) in human cell based systems. The US EPA has funded an important project to develop new high throughput technologies based on human cell based in vitro technologies. These methods are currently being incorporated into the chemical risk assessment process. In the pharmaceutical industry, the efficacy and toxicity of new drugs are evaluated during preclinical investigations that include drug metabolism, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety toxicology studies. The results of these studies are analyzed and extrapolated to predict efficacy and potential adverse effects in humans. However, due to the high failure rate of drugs during the clinical phases, a new approach for a more predictive assessment of drugs both in terms of efficacy and adverse effects is getting urgent. The food industry faces the challenge of assessing novel foods and food ingredients for the general population, while using animal safety testing for extrapolation purposes is often of limited relevance. The question is whether the latest paradigm shift proposed by the Tox21c report for chemicals may provide a useful tool to improve the risk assessment approach also for drugs and food ingredients. PMID:26168280

Local-search based prediction of medical image registration error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saygili, Görkem

2018-03-01

Medical image registration is a crucial task in many different medical imaging applications. Hence, considerable amount of work has been published recently that aim to predict the error in a registration without any human effort. If provided, these error predictions can be used as a feedback to the registration algorithm to further improve its performance. Recent methods generally start with extracting image-based and deformation-based features, then apply feature pooling and finally train a Random Forest (RF) regressor to predict the real registration error. Image-based features can be calculated after applying a single registration but provide limited accuracy whereas deformation-based features such as variation of deformation vector field may require up to 20 registrations which is a considerably high time-consuming task. This paper proposes to use extracted features from a local search algorithm as image-based features to estimate the error of a registration. The proposed method comprises a local search algorithm to find corresponding voxels between registered image pairs and based on the amount of shifts and stereo confidence measures, it predicts the amount of registration error in millimetres densely using a RF regressor. Compared to other algorithms in the literature, the proposed algorithm does not require multiple registrations, can be efficiently implemented on a Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) and can still provide highly accurate error predictions in existence of large registration error. Experimental results with real registrations on a public dataset indicate a substantially high accuracy achieved by using features from the local search algorithm.

Time averaging of NMR chemical shifts in the MLF peptide in the solid state.

PubMed

De Gortari, Itzam; Portella, Guillem; Salvatella, Xavier; Bajaj, Vikram S; van der Wel, Patrick C A; Yates, Jonathan R; Segall, Matthew D; Pickard, Chris J; Payne, Mike C; Vendruscolo, Michele

2010-05-05

Since experimental measurements of NMR chemical shifts provide time and ensemble averaged values, we investigated how these effects should be included when chemical shifts are computed using density functional theory (DFT). We measured the chemical shifts of the N-formyl-L-methionyl-L-leucyl-L-phenylalanine-OMe (MLF) peptide in the solid state, and then used the X-ray structure to calculate the (13)C chemical shifts using the gauge including projector augmented wave (GIPAW) method, which accounts for the periodic nature of the crystal structure, obtaining an overall accuracy of 4.2 ppm. In order to understand the origin of the difference between experimental and calculated chemical shifts, we carried out first-principles molecular dynamics simulations to characterize the molecular motion of the MLF peptide on the picosecond time scale. We found that (13)C chemical shifts experience very rapid fluctuations of more than 20 ppm that are averaged out over less than 200 fs. Taking account of these fluctuations in the calculation of the chemical shifts resulted in an accuracy of 3.3 ppm. To investigate the effects of averaging over longer time scales we sampled the rotameric states populated by the MLF peptides in the solid state by performing a total of 5 micros classical molecular dynamics simulations. By averaging the chemical shifts over these rotameric states, we increased the accuracy of the chemical shift calculations to 3.0 ppm, with less than 1 ppm error in 10 out of 22 cases. These results suggests that better DFT-based predictions of chemical shifts of peptides and proteins will be achieved by developing improved computational strategies capable of taking into account the averaging process up to the millisecond time scale on which the chemical shift measurements report.

Not just the norm: exemplar-based models also predict face aftereffects.

PubMed

Ross, David A; Deroche, Mickael; Palmeri, Thomas J

2014-02-01

The face recognition literature has considered two competing accounts of how faces are represented within the visual system: Exemplar-based models assume that faces are represented via their similarity to exemplars of previously experienced faces, while norm-based models assume that faces are represented with respect to their deviation from an average face, or norm. Face identity aftereffects have been taken as compelling evidence in favor of a norm-based account over an exemplar-based account. After a relatively brief period of adaptation to an adaptor face, the perceived identity of a test face is shifted toward a face with attributes opposite to those of the adaptor, suggesting an explicit psychological representation of the norm. Surprisingly, despite near universal recognition that face identity aftereffects imply norm-based coding, there have been no published attempts to simulate the predictions of norm- and exemplar-based models in face adaptation paradigms. Here, we implemented and tested variations of norm and exemplar models. Contrary to common claims, our simulations revealed that both an exemplar-based model and a version of a two-pool norm-based model, but not a traditional norm-based model, predict face identity aftereffects following face adaptation.

Not Just the Norm: Exemplar-Based Models also Predict Face Aftereffects

PubMed Central

Ross, David A.; Deroche, Mickael; Palmeri, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

The face recognition literature has considered two competing accounts of how faces are represented within the visual system: Exemplar-based models assume that faces are represented via their similarity to exemplars of previously experienced faces, while norm-based models assume that faces are represented with respect to their deviation from an average face, or norm. Face identity aftereffects have been taken as compelling evidence in favor of a norm-based account over an exemplar-based account. After a relatively brief period of adaptation to an adaptor face, the perceived identity of a test face is shifted towards a face with opposite attributes to the adaptor, suggesting an explicit psychological representation of the norm. Surprisingly, despite near universal recognition that face identity aftereffects imply norm-based coding, there have been no published attempts to simulate the predictions of norm- and exemplar-based models in face adaptation paradigms. Here we implemented and tested variations of norm and exemplar models. Contrary to common claims, our simulations revealed that both an exemplar-based model and a version of a two-pool norm-based model, but not a traditional norm-based model, predict face identity aftereffects following face adaptation. PMID:23690282

Free variable selection QSPR study to predict 19F chemical shifts of some fluorinated organic compounds using Random Forest and RBF-PLS methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goudarzi, Nasser

2016-04-01

In this work, two new and powerful chemometrics methods are applied for the modeling and prediction of the 19F chemical shift values of some fluorinated organic compounds. The radial basis function-partial least square (RBF-PLS) and random forest (RF) are employed to construct the models to predict the 19F chemical shifts. In this study, we didn't used from any variable selection method and RF method can be used as variable selection and modeling technique. Effects of the important parameters affecting the ability of the RF prediction power such as the number of trees (nt) and the number of randomly selected variables to split each node (m) were investigated. The root-mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for the training set and the prediction set for the RBF-PLS and RF models were 44.70, 23.86, 29.77, and 23.69, respectively. Also, the correlation coefficients of the prediction set for the RBF-PLS and RF models were 0.8684 and 0.9313, respectively. The results obtained reveal that the RF model can be used as a powerful chemometrics tool for the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies.

A Stratified Acoustic Model Accounting for Phase Shifts for Underwater Acoustic Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Ping; Zhang, Lin; Li, Victor O. K.

2013-01-01

Accurate acoustic channel models are critical for the study of underwater acoustic networks. Existing models include physics-based models and empirical approximation models. The former enjoy good accuracy, but incur heavy computational load, rendering them impractical in large networks. On the other hand, the latter are computationally inexpensive but inaccurate since they do not account for the complex effects of boundary reflection losses, the multi-path phenomenon and ray bending in the stratified ocean medium. In this paper, we propose a Stratified Acoustic Model (SAM) based on frequency-independent geometrical ray tracing, accounting for each ray's phase shift during the propagation. It is a feasible channel model for large scale underwater acoustic network simulation, allowing us to predict the transmission loss with much lower computational complexity than the traditional physics-based models. The accuracy of the model is validated via comparisons with the experimental measurements in two different oceans. Satisfactory agreements with the measurements and with other computationally intensive classical physics-based models are demonstrated. PMID:23669708

A stratified acoustic model accounting for phase shifts for underwater acoustic networks.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Zhang, Lin; Li, Victor O K

2013-05-13

Accurate acoustic channel models are critical for the study of underwater acoustic networks. Existing models include physics-based models and empirical approximation models. The former enjoy good accuracy, but incur heavy computational load, rendering them impractical in large networks. On the other hand, the latter are computationally inexpensive but inaccurate since they do not account for the complex effects of boundary reflection losses, the multi-path phenomenon and ray bending in the stratified ocean medium. In this paper, we propose a Stratified Acoustic Model (SAM) based on frequency-independent geometrical ray tracing, accounting for each ray's phase shift during the propagation. It is a feasible channel model for large scale underwater acoustic network simulation, allowing us to predict the transmission loss with much lower computational complexity than the traditional physics-based models. The accuracy of the model is validated via comparisons with the experimental measurements in two different oceans. Satisfactory agreements with the measurements and with other computationally intensive classical physics-based models are demonstrated.

Implications of a temperature increase for host plant range: predictions for a butterfly

PubMed Central

Audusseau, Hélène; Nylin, Sören; Janz, Niklas

2013-01-01

Although changes in phenology and species associations are relatively well-documented responses to global warming, the potential interactions between these phenomena are less well understood. In this study, we investigate the interactions between temperature, phenology (in terms of seasonal timing of larval growth) and host plant use in the polyphagous butterfly Polygonia c-album. We found that the hierarchy of larval performance on three natural host plants was not modified by a temperature increase as such. However, larval performance on each host plant and temperature treatment was affected by rearing season. Even though larvae performed better at the higher temperature regardless of the time of the rearing, relative differences between host plants changed with the season. For larvae reared late in the season, performance was always better on the herbaceous plant than on the woody plants. In this species, it is likely that a prolonged warming will lead to a shift from univoltinism to bivoltinism. The demonstrated interaction between host plant suitability and season means that such a shift is likely to lead to a shift in selective regime, favoring specialization on the herbaceous host. Based on our result, we suggest that host range evolution in response to temperature increase would in this species be highly contingent on whether the population undergoes a predicted shift from one to two generations. We discuss the effect of global warming on species associations and the outcome of asynchrony in rates of phenological change. PMID:24101991

Switching effects and spin-valley Andreev resonant peak shifting in silicene superconductor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soodchomshom, Bumned; Niyomsoot, Kittipong; Pattrawutthiwong, Eakkarat

2018-03-01

The magnetoresistance and spin-valley transport properties in a silicene-based NM/FB/SC junction are investigated, where NM, FB and SC are normal, ferromagnetic and s-wave superconducting silicene, respectively. In the FB region, perpendicular electric and staggered exchange fields are applied. The quasiparticles may be described by Dirac Bogoliubov-de Gennes equation due to Cooper pairs formed by spin-valley massive fermions. The spin-valley conductances are calculated based on the modified Blonder-Tinkham-Klapwijk formalism. We find the spin-valley dependent Andreev resonant peaks in the junction shifted by applying exchange field. Perfect conductance switch generated by interplay of intrinsic spin orbit interaction and superconducting gap has been predicted. Spin and valley polarizations are almost linearly dependent on biased voltage near zero bias and then turn into perfect switch at biased voltage approaching the superconducting gap. The perfect switching of large magnetoresistance has been also predicted at biased energy near the superconducting gap. These switching effects may be due to the presence of spin-valley Andreev resonant peak near the superconducting gap. Our work reveals potential of silicene as applications of electronic switching devices and linear control of spin and valley polarizations.

Interface induced spin-orbit interaction in silicon quantum dots and prospects of scalability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferdous, Rifat; Wai, Kok; Veldhorst, Menno; Hwang, Jason; Yang, Henry; Klimeck, Gerhard; Dzurak, Andrew; Rahman, Rajib

A scalable quantum computing architecture requires reproducibility over key qubit properties, like resonance frequency, coherence time etc. Randomness in these properties would necessitate individual knowledge of each qubit in a quantum computer. Spin qubits hosted in Silicon (Si) quantum dots (QD) is promising as a potential building block for a large-scale quantum computer, because of their longer coherence times. The Stark shift of the electron g-factor in these QDs has been used to selectively address multiple qubits. From atomistic tight-binding studies we investigated the effect of interface non-ideality on the Stark shift of the g-factor in a Si QD. We find that based on the location of a monoatomic step at the interface with respect to the dot center both the sign and magnitude of the Stark shift change. Thus the presence of interface steps in these devices will cause variability in electron g-factor and its Stark shift based on the location of the qubit. This behavior will also cause varying sensitivity to charge noise from one qubit to another, which will randomize the dephasing times T2*. This predicted device-to-device variability is experimentally observed recently in three qubits fabricated at a Si/Si02 interface, which validates the issues discussed.

Fully automatic assignment of small molecules' NMR spectra without relying on chemical shift predictions.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrés M; Bernal, Andrés; Patiny, Luc; Wist, Julien

2015-08-01

We present a method for the automatic assignment of small molecules' NMR spectra. The method includes an automatic and novel self-consistent peak-picking routine that validates NMR peaks in each spectrum against peaks in the same or other spectra that are due to the same resonances. The auto-assignment routine used is based on branch-and-bound optimization and relies predominantly on integration and correlation data; chemical shift information may be included when available to fasten the search and shorten the list of viable assignments, but in most cases tested, it is not required in order to find the correct assignment. This automatic assignment method is implemented as a web-based tool that runs without any user input other than the acquired spectra. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

PubMed

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models.

Future of Endemic Flora of Biodiversity Hotspots in India

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based models. PMID:25501852

Resting-State Functional Connectivity-Based Biomarkers and Functional MRI-Based Neurofeedback for Psychiatric Disorders: A Challenge for Developing Theranostic Biomarkers.

PubMed

Yamada, Takashi; Hashimoto, Ryu-Ichiro; Yahata, Noriaki; Ichikawa, Naho; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Kato, Nobumasa; Takahashi, Hidehiko; Kawato, Mitsuo

2017-10-01

Psychiatric research has been hampered by an explanatory gap between psychiatric symptoms and their neural underpinnings, which has resulted in poor treatment outcomes. This situation has prompted us to shift from symptom-based diagnosis to data-driven diagnosis, aiming to redefine psychiatric disorders as disorders of neural circuitry. Promising candidates for data-driven diagnosis include resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI)-based biomarkers. Although biomarkers have been developed with the aim of diagnosing patients and predicting the efficacy of therapy, the focus has shifted to the identification of biomarkers that represent therapeutic targets, which would allow for more personalized treatment approaches. This type of biomarker (i.e., "theranostic biomarker") is expected to elucidate the disease mechanism of psychiatric conditions and to offer an individualized neural circuit-based therapeutic target based on the neural cause of a condition. To this end, researchers have developed rs-fcMRI-based biomarkers and investigated a causal relationship between potential biomarkers and disease-specific behavior using functional MRI (fMRI)-based neurofeedback on functional connectivity. In this review, we introduce a recent approach for creating a theranostic biomarker, which consists mainly of 2 parts: (1) developing an rs-fcMRI-based biomarker that can predict diagnosis and/or symptoms with high accuracy, and (2) the introduction of a proof-of-concept study investigating the relationship between normalizing the biomarker and symptom changes using fMRI-based neurofeedback. In parallel with the introduction of recent studies, we review rs-fcMRI-based biomarker and fMRI-based neurofeedback, focusing on the technological improvements and limitations associated with clinical use. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of CINP.

Resting-State Functional Connectivity-Based Biomarkers and Functional MRI-Based Neurofeedback for Psychiatric Disorders: A Challenge for Developing Theranostic Biomarkers

PubMed Central

Yamada, Takashi; Hashimoto, Ryu-ichiro; Yahata, Noriaki; Ichikawa, Naho; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Kato, Nobumasa; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2017-01-01

Abstract Psychiatric research has been hampered by an explanatory gap between psychiatric symptoms and their neural underpinnings, which has resulted in poor treatment outcomes. This situation has prompted us to shift from symptom-based diagnosis to data-driven diagnosis, aiming to redefine psychiatric disorders as disorders of neural circuitry. Promising candidates for data-driven diagnosis include resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI)-based biomarkers. Although biomarkers have been developed with the aim of diagnosing patients and predicting the efficacy of therapy, the focus has shifted to the identification of biomarkers that represent therapeutic targets, which would allow for more personalized treatment approaches. This type of biomarker (i.e., “theranostic biomarker”) is expected to elucidate the disease mechanism of psychiatric conditions and to offer an individualized neural circuit-based therapeutic target based on the neural cause of a condition. To this end, researchers have developed rs-fcMRI-based biomarkers and investigated a causal relationship between potential biomarkers and disease-specific behavior using functional MRI (fMRI)-based neurofeedback on functional connectivity. In this review, we introduce a recent approach for creating a theranostic biomarker, which consists mainly of 2 parts: (1) developing an rs-fcMRI-based biomarker that can predict diagnosis and/or symptoms with high accuracy, and (2) the introduction of a proof-of-concept study investigating the relationship between normalizing the biomarker and symptom changes using fMRI-based neurofeedback. In parallel with the introduction of recent studies, we review rs-fcMRI-based biomarker and fMRI-based neurofeedback, focusing on the technological improvements and limitations associated with clinical use. PMID:28977523

System's flips in climate-related energy (CRE) systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Engeland, Kolbjørn; François, Baptiste; Renard, Benjamin

2014-05-01

Several modern environmental questions invite to explore the complex relationships between natural phenomena and human behaviour at a range of space and time scales. This usually involves a number of cause-effect (causal) relationships, linking actions and events. In lay terms, 'effect' can be defined as 'what happened' and 'cause', 'why something happened.' In a changing world or merely moving from one scale to another, shifts in perspective are expected, bringing some phenomena into the foreground and putting others to the background. Systems can thus flip from one set of causal structures to another in response to environmental perturbations and human innovations or behaviors, for instance, as space-time signatures are modified. The identification of these flips helps in better understanding and predicting how societies and stakeholders react to a shift in perspective. In this study, our motivation is to investigate possible consequences of the shift to a low carbon economy in terms of socio-technico systems' flips. The focus is on the regional production of Climate-Related Energy (CRE) (hydro-, wind- and solar-power). We search for information on historic shifts that may help defining the forcing conditions of abrupt changes and extreme situations. We identify and present a series of examples in which we try to distinguish the various tipping points, thresholds, breakpoints and regime shifts that are characteristic of complex systems in the CRE production domain. We expect that with these examples our comprehension of the question will be enriched, providing us the elements needed to better validate modeling attempts, to predict and manage flips of complex CRE production systems. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

Does visual working memory represent the predicted locations of future target objects? An event-related brain potential study.

PubMed

Grubert, Anna; Eimer, Martin

2015-11-11

During the maintenance of task-relevant objects in visual working memory, the contralateral delay activity (CDA) is elicited over the hemisphere opposite to the visual field where these objects are presented. The presence of this lateralised CDA component demonstrates the existence of position-dependent object representations in working memory. We employed a change detection task to investigate whether the represented object locations in visual working memory are shifted in preparation for the known location of upcoming comparison stimuli. On each trial, bilateral memory displays were followed after a delay period by bilateral test displays. Participants had to encode and maintain three visual objects on one side of the memory display, and to judge whether they were identical or different to three objects in the test display. Task-relevant memory and test stimuli were located in the same visual hemifield in the no-shift task, and on opposite sides in the horizontal shift task. CDA components of similar size were triggered contralateral to the memorized objects in both tasks. The absence of a polarity reversal of the CDA in the horizontal shift task demonstrated that there was no preparatory shift of memorized object location towards the side of the upcoming comparison stimuli. These results suggest that visual working memory represents the locations of visual objects during encoding, and that the matching of memorized and test objects at different locations is based on a comparison process that can bridge spatial translations between these objects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Theory of mind, inhibitory control, and preschool-age children's suggestibility in different interviewing contexts.

PubMed

Scullin, Matthew H; Bonner, Karri

2006-02-01

The current study examined the relations among 3- to 5-year-olds' theory of mind, inhibitory control, and three measures of suggestibility: yielding to suggestive questions (yield), shifting answers in response to negative feedback (shift), and accuracy in response to misleading questions during a pressured interview about a live event. Theory of mind aided in the prediction of suggestibility about the live event, and inhibitory control was a moderator variable affecting the consistency of children's sensitivity to social pressure across situations. The findings indicate that theory of mind and inhibitory control predict children's suggestibility about a live event above and beyond yield, shift, and age and that the construct validity of shift may improve as children's inhibitory control develops.

Active Region Moss: Doppler Shifts from Hinode/EIS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripathi, Durgesh; Mason, Helen E.; Klimchuk, James A.

2012-01-01

Studying the Doppler shifts and the temperature dependence of Doppler shifts in moss regions can help us understand the heating processes in the core of the active regions. In this paper we have used an active region observation recorded by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) onboard Hinode on 12-Dec- 2007 to measure the Doppler shifts in the moss regions. We have distinguished the moss regions from the rest of the active region by defining a low density cut-off as derived by Tripathi et al. (2010). We have carried out a very careful analysis of the EIS wavelength calibration based on the method described in Young, O Dwyer and Mason (2012). For spectral lines having maximum sensitivity between log T = 5.85 and log T = 6.25 K, we find that the velocity distribution peaks at around 0 km/s with an estimated error of 4 km/s. The width of the distribution decreases with temperature. The mean of the distribution shows a blue shift which increases with increasing temperature and the distribution also shows asymmetries towards blue-shift. Comparing these results with observables predicted from different coronal heating models, we find that these results are consistent with both steady and impulsive heating scenarios. Further observational constraints are needed to distinguish between these two heating scenarios.

"Meta-analyses and P-curves support robust cycle shifts in women's mate preferences: Reply to Wood and Carden (2014) and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014)": Correction to Gildersleeve, Haselton, and Fales (2014).

PubMed

2017-11-01

Reports an error in "Meta-analyses and p -curves support robust cycle shifts in women's mate preferences: Reply to Wood and Carden (2014) and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014)" by Kelly Gildersleeve, Martie G. Haselton and Melissa R. Fales ( Psychological Bulletin , 2014[Sep], Vol 140[5], 1272-1280). In the article, all p -curve analyses examining the Context Moderation Hypothesis Prediction mistakenly included the p-value from Little, Jones, Burt, & Perrett (2007) Study 2 for the simple effect of fertility on attraction to facial symmetry in a short-term relationship context ( p < .001). The analyses should have instead included the p -value for the fertility X relationship context interaction ( p = .011). In addition, the p -curve analyses examining exact two-tailed p -values for the Cycle Shift Prediction should have included an additional p -value from Provost et al. (2008) Study 1 for the main effect of fertility on attraction to gait masculinity. The reported p -value for this effect was .05, making it ineligible for inclusion in p -curves of reported p-values. However, the exact recalculated two-tailed p -value was .049, making it eligible for inclusion in p -curves of exact p -values. The corrected p -curve of exact two-tailed p -values evaluating the Cycle Shift Prediction and Context Moderation Prediction (displayed in Figure 2) now includes a total of 15 p -values ( N = 1442) is no longer significantly right skewed χ²(30) = 41.25, p = .08. The corrected p -curve of exact two-tailed p -values evaluating the Cycle Shift Prediction, Context Moderation Prediction, and Partner Qualities Moderation Prediction (displayed in Figure 3) now includes a total of 21 p -values ( N = 1707) and continues to be significantly right skewed Χ²(42) = 69.83, p = .004. As part of this correction, the online supplemental materials have been updated. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2014-35938-003.) Two meta-analyses evaluated shifts across the ovulatory cycle in women's mate preferences but reported very different findings. In this journal, we reported robust evidence for the pattern of cycle shifts predicted by the ovulatory shift hypothesis (Gildersleeve, Haselton, & Fales, 2014). However, Wood, Kressel, Joshi, and Louie (2014) claimed an absence of compelling support for this hypothesis and asserted that the few significant cycle shifts they observed were false positives resulting from publication bias, p-hacking, or other research artifacts. How could 2 meta-analyses of the same literature reach such different conclusions? We reanalyzed the data compiled by Wood et al. These analyses revealed problems in Wood et al.'s meta-analysis-some of which are reproduced in Wood and Carden's (2014) comment in the current issue of this journal-that led them to overlook clear evidence for the ovulatory shift hypothesis in their own set of effects. In addition, we present right-skewed p-curves that directly contradict speculations by Wood et al.; Wood and Carden; and Harris, Pashler, and Mickes (2014) that supportive findings in the cycle shift literature are false positives. Therefore, evidence from both of the meta-analyses and the p-curves strongly supports genuine, robust effects consistent with the ovulatory shift hypothesis and contradicts claims that these effects merely reflect publication bias, p-hacking, or other research artifacts. Unfounded speculations about p-hacking distort the research record and risk unfairly damaging researchers' reputations; they should therefore be made only on the basis of firm evidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Discovering Shifts to Suicidal Ideation from Mental Health Content in Social Media

PubMed Central

De Choudhury, Munmun; Kiciman, Emre; Dredze, Mark; Coppersmith, Glen; Kumar, Mrinal

2017-01-01

History of mental illness is a major factor behind suicide risk and ideation. However research efforts toward characterizing and forecasting this risk is limited due to the paucity of information regarding suicide ideation, exacerbated by the stigma of mental illness. This paper fills gaps in the literature by developing a statistical methodology to infer which individuals could undergo transitions from mental health discourse to suicidal ideation. We utilize semi-anonymous support communities on Reddit as unobtrusive data sources to infer the likelihood of these shifts. We develop language and interactional measures for this purpose, as well as a propensity score matching based statistical approach. Our approach allows us to derive distinct markers of shifts to suicidal ideation. These markers can be modeled in a prediction framework to identify individuals likely to engage in suicidal ideation in the future. We discuss societal and ethical implications of this research. PMID:29082385

Discovering Shifts to Suicidal Ideation from Mental Health Content in Social Media.

PubMed

De Choudhury, Munmun; Kiciman, Emre; Dredze, Mark; Coppersmith, Glen; Kumar, Mrinal

2016-05-01

History of mental illness is a major factor behind suicide risk and ideation. However research efforts toward characterizing and forecasting this risk is limited due to the paucity of information regarding suicide ideation, exacerbated by the stigma of mental illness. This paper fills gaps in the literature by developing a statistical methodology to infer which individuals could undergo transitions from mental health discourse to suicidal ideation. We utilize semi-anonymous support communities on Reddit as unobtrusive data sources to infer the likelihood of these shifts. We develop language and interactional measures for this purpose, as well as a propensity score matching based statistical approach. Our approach allows us to derive distinct markers of shifts to suicidal ideation. These markers can be modeled in a prediction framework to identify individuals likely to engage in suicidal ideation in the future. We discuss societal and ethical implications of this research.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel Patrick

2015-01-01

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

The Future of the New Media in the Communication of Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, Joseph

2014-03-01

New media, that which is based around social networks, ubiquitous consumer technology, and today's near-universal access to information, has transformed the way that science is communicated to the scientist and non-scientist alike. We may be in the midst of mankind's greatest shift in information consumption and distribution since the invention of the printing press. Or maybe not. The problem with predicting the future is that it's very hard, and unless you're Isaac Asimov, it's very easy to be wrong. When one predicts the future regarding the internet, that risk becomes almost a certainty. Still, we can apply lessons learned from the near and distant history of science communication to put today's new media evolution into perspective, and to give us clues as to where social media, digital journalism, open access, and online education will lead science communication in years to come. Most importantly, it remains to be seen whether this new media evolution will translate into a shift in how science is viewed by citizens and their policymakers.

Detecting ongoing intimate partner violence in the emergency department using a simple 4-question screen: the OVAT.

PubMed

Ernst, Amy A; Weiss, Steven J; Cham, Elaine; Hall, Louise; Nick, Todd G

2004-06-01

We wanted to prospectively evaluate the use of a brief screening tool for ongoing intimate partner violence (IPV), the OVAT, and to validate this tool against the present Index of Spouse Abuse (ISA). The design was a prospective survey during randomized 4-hour shifts in an urban emergency department setting. The scale consists of four questions developed based on our previous work. The ISA was compared as the gold standard for detection of present (ongoing) IPV. Of 362 eligible patients presenting during 75 randomized 4-hour shifts, 306 (85%) completed the study. The prevalence of ongoing IPV using the OVAT was 31% (95% CI 26% to 36%). For the ISA, the prevalence was 20% (95% CI 16% to 25%). Compared with the ISA, the sensitivity of the OVAT in detecting ongoing IPV was 86%, specificity 83%, negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 56%, with an accuracy of 84%. In conclusion, four brief questions can detect ongoing IPV to aid in identifying the victim.

Continuum Lowering and Fermi-Surface Rising in Strongly Coupled and Degenerate Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, S. X.

2017-08-01

Continuum lowering is a well known and important physics concept that describes the ionization potential depression (IPD) in plasmas caused by thermal- or pressure-induced ionization of outer-shell electrons. The existing IPD models are often used to characterize plasma conditions and to gauge opacity calculations. Recent precision measurements have revealed deficits in our understanding of continuum lowering in dense hot plasmas. However, these investigations have so far been limited to IPD in strongly coupled but nondegenerate plasmas. Here, we report a first-principles study of the K -edge shifting in both strongly coupled and fully degenerate carbon plasmas, with quantum molecular dynamics calculations based on the all-electron density-functional theory. The resulting K -edge shifting versus plasma density, as a probe to the continuum lowering and the Fermi-surface rising, is found to be significantly different from predictions of existing IPD models. In contrast, a simple model of "single-atom-in-box," developed in this work, accurately predicts K -edge locations as ab initio calculations provide.

Validity of self-reported exposure to shift work.

PubMed

Härmä, Mikko; Koskinen, Aki; Ropponen, Annina; Puttonen, Sampsa; Karhula, Kati; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

2017-03-01

To evaluate the validity of widely used questionnaire items on work schedule using objective registry data as reference. A cohort study of hospital employees who responded to a self-administered questionnaire on work schedule in 2008, 2012 and 2014 and were linked to individual-level pay-roll-based records on work shifts. For predictive validity, leisure-time fatigue was assessed. According to the survey data in 2014 (n=8896), 55% of the day workers had at least 1 year of earlier shift work experience. 8% of the night shift workers changed to day work during the follow-up. Using pay-roll data as reference, questions on 'shift work with night shifts' and 'permanent night work' showed high sensitivity (96% and 90%) and specificity (92% and 97%). Self-reported 'regular day work' showed moderate sensitivity (73%), but high specificity (99%) and 'shift work without night shifts' showed low sensitivity (62%) and moderate specificity (87%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the age-adjusted, sex-adjusted and baseline fatigue-adjusted association between 'shift work without night shifts' and leisure-time fatigue was lower for self-reported compared with objective assessment (1.30, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.82, n=1707 vs 1.89, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.39, n=1627). In contrast, shift work with night shifts, compared with permanent day work, was similarly associated with fatigue in the two assessments (2.04, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.57, n=2311 vs 1.82, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.58, n=1804). The validity of self-reported assessment of shift work varies between work schedules. Exposure misclassification in self-reported data may contribute to bias towards the null in shift work without night shifts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Short-term Memory as a Processing Shift

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis-Smith, Marion Quinn

1975-01-01

The series of experiments described here examined the predictions for free recall from sequential models and the shift formulation, focusing on the roles of short- and long-term memory in the primacy/recency shift and on the effects of expectancies on short- and long-term memory. (Author/RK)

Ion diffusion may introduce spurious current sources in current-source density (CSD) analysis.

PubMed

Halnes, Geir; Mäki-Marttunen, Tuomo; Pettersen, Klas H; Andreassen, Ole A; Einevoll, Gaute T

2017-07-01

Current-source density (CSD) analysis is a well-established method for analyzing recorded local field potentials (LFPs), that is, the low-frequency part of extracellular potentials. Standard CSD theory is based on the assumption that all extracellular currents are purely ohmic, and thus neglects the possible impact from ionic diffusion on recorded potentials. However, it has previously been shown that in physiological conditions with large ion-concentration gradients, diffusive currents can evoke slow shifts in extracellular potentials. Using computer simulations, we here show that diffusion-evoked potential shifts can introduce errors in standard CSD analysis, and can lead to prediction of spurious current sources. Further, we here show that the diffusion-evoked prediction errors can be removed by using an improved CSD estimator which accounts for concentration-dependent effects. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Standard CSD analysis does not account for ionic diffusion. Using biophysically realistic computer simulations, we show that unaccounted-for diffusive currents can lead to the prediction of spurious current sources. This finding may be of strong interest for in vivo electrophysiologists doing extracellular recordings in general, and CSD analysis in particular. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Trajectory Orientation: A Technology-Enabled Concept Requiring a Shift in Controller Roles and Responsibilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leiden, Ken; Green, Steven

2000-01-01

The development of a decision support tool (DST) for the en-route domain with accurate conflict prediction time horizons of 20 minutes has introduced an interesting problem. A 20 minute time horizon for conflict prediction often results in the predicted conflict occurring one or more sectors downstream from the sector controller who "owns" (i-e., is responsible for the safe separation of aircraft) one or both of the aircraft in the conflict pair. Based on current roles and responsibilities of today's en route controllers, the upstream controller would not resolve this conflict. In most cases, the downstream controller would wait until the conflicting aircraft entered higher sector before resolving the conflict. This results in a delay of several minutes from the time when the conflict was initially predicted. This delay is inefficient from both a controller workload and user's cost of operations perspective. Trajectory orientation, a new concept for facilitating an efficient, conflict-free flight path across several sectors while conforming to metering or miles-in-trail spacing, is proposed as an alternative to today's sector-oriented method. This concept necessitates a fundamental shift in thinking about inter-sector coordination. Instead of operating independently, with the main focus on protecting their internal airspace, controllers would work cooperatively, depending on each other for well-planned, conflict-free flow of aircraft. To support the trajectory orientation concept, a long time horizon (15 to 20 minutes) for conflict prediction and resolution would most likely be a primary requirement. In addition, new tools, such as controller-pilot data link will be identified to determine their necessity and applicability for trajectory orientation. Finally, with significant controller participation from selected Air Route Traffic Control Centers, potential shifts in R-side/D-side roles and responsibilities as well as the creation of a new controller position for multi-sector planning will be examined to determine the most viable solutions.

Flexibility effects on tooth contact location in spiral bevel gear transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altidis, P. C.; Savage, M.

1987-01-01

An analytical method to predict the shift of the contact ellipse between the meshing teeth in a spiral bevel gear set is presented in this report. The contact ellipse shift of interest is the motion of the nominal tooth contact location on each tooth from the ideal pitch point to the point of contact between the two teeth considering the elastic motions of the gears and their supporting shafts. This is the shift of the pitch point from the ideal, unloaded position on each tooth to the nominal contact location on the tooth when the gears are fully loaded. It is assumed that the major contributors of this motion are the elastic deflections of the gear shafts, the slopes of the shafts under load and the radial deflections of the four gear shaft bearings. The motions of the two pitch point locations on the pinion and the gear tooth surfaces are calculated in a FORTRAN program which also calculates the size and orientation of the Hertzian contact ellipse on the tooth faces. Based on the curvatures of the two spiral bevel gear teeth and the size of the contact ellipse, the program also predicts the basic dynamic capacity of the tooth pair. A complete numerical example is given to illustrate the use of the program.

Automation and uncertainty analysis of a method for in-vivo range verification in particle therapy.

PubMed

Frey, K; Unholtz, D; Bauer, J; Debus, J; Min, C H; Bortfeld, T; Paganetti, H; Parodi, K

2014-10-07

We introduce the automation of the range difference calculation deduced from particle-irradiation induced β(+)-activity distributions with the so-called most-likely-shift approach, and evaluate its reliability via the monitoring of algorithm- and patient-specific uncertainty factors. The calculation of the range deviation is based on the minimization of the absolute profile differences in the distal part of two activity depth profiles shifted against each other. Depending on the workflow of positron emission tomography (PET)-based range verification, the two profiles under evaluation can correspond to measured and simulated distributions, or only measured data from different treatment sessions. In comparison to previous work, the proposed approach includes an automated identification of the distal region of interest for each pair of PET depth profiles and under consideration of the planned dose distribution, resulting in the optimal shift distance. Moreover, it introduces an estimate of uncertainty associated to the identified shift, which is then used as weighting factor to 'red flag' problematic large range differences. Furthermore, additional patient-specific uncertainty factors are calculated using available computed tomography (CT) data to support the range analysis. The performance of the new method for in-vivo treatment verification in the clinical routine is investigated with in-room PET images for proton therapy as well as with offline PET images for proton and carbon ion therapy. The comparison between measured PET activity distributions and predictions obtained by Monte Carlo simulations or measurements from previous treatment fractions is performed. For this purpose, a total of 15 patient datasets were analyzed, which were acquired at Massachusetts General Hospital and Heidelberg Ion-Beam Therapy Center with in-room PET and offline PET/CT scanners, respectively. Calculated range differences between the compared activity distributions are reported in a 2D map in beam-eye-view. In comparison to previously proposed approaches, the new most-likely-shift method shows more robust results for assessing in-vivo the range from strongly varying PET distributions caused by differing patient geometry, ion beam species, beam delivery techniques, PET imaging concepts and counting statistics. The additional visualization of the uncertainties and the dedicated weighting strategy contribute to the understanding of the reliability of observed range differences and the complexity in the prediction of activity distributions. The proposed method promises to offer a feasible technique for clinical routine of PET-based range verification.

Automation and uncertainty analysis of a method for in-vivo range verification in particle therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, K.; Unholtz, D.; Bauer, J.; Debus, J.; Min, C. H.; Bortfeld, T.; Paganetti, H.; Parodi, K.

2014-10-01

We introduce the automation of the range difference calculation deduced from particle-irradiation induced β+-activity distributions with the so-called most-likely-shift approach, and evaluate its reliability via the monitoring of algorithm- and patient-specific uncertainty factors. The calculation of the range deviation is based on the minimization of the absolute profile differences in the distal part of two activity depth profiles shifted against each other. Depending on the workflow of positron emission tomography (PET)-based range verification, the two profiles under evaluation can correspond to measured and simulated distributions, or only measured data from different treatment sessions. In comparison to previous work, the proposed approach includes an automated identification of the distal region of interest for each pair of PET depth profiles and under consideration of the planned dose distribution, resulting in the optimal shift distance. Moreover, it introduces an estimate of uncertainty associated to the identified shift, which is then used as weighting factor to ‘red flag’ problematic large range differences. Furthermore, additional patient-specific uncertainty factors are calculated using available computed tomography (CT) data to support the range analysis. The performance of the new method for in-vivo treatment verification in the clinical routine is investigated with in-room PET images for proton therapy as well as with offline PET images for proton and carbon ion therapy. The comparison between measured PET activity distributions and predictions obtained by Monte Carlo simulations or measurements from previous treatment fractions is performed. For this purpose, a total of 15 patient datasets were analyzed, which were acquired at Massachusetts General Hospital and Heidelberg Ion-Beam Therapy Center with in-room PET and offline PET/CT scanners, respectively. Calculated range differences between the compared activity distributions are reported in a 2D map in beam-eye-view. In comparison to previously proposed approaches, the new most-likely-shift method shows more robust results for assessing in-vivo the range from strongly varying PET distributions caused by differing patient geometry, ion beam species, beam delivery techniques, PET imaging concepts and counting statistics. The additional visualization of the uncertainties and the dedicated weighting strategy contribute to the understanding of the reliability of observed range differences and the complexity in the prediction of activity distributions. The proposed method promises to offer a feasible technique for clinical routine of PET-based range verification.

Auditory Attention and Comprehension During a Simulated Night Shift: Effects of Task Characteristics.

PubMed

Pilcher, June J; Jennings, Kristen S; Phillips, Ginger E; McCubbin, James A

2016-11-01

The current study investigated performance on a dual auditory task during a simulated night shift. Night shifts and sleep deprivation negatively affect performance on vigilance-based tasks, but less is known about the effects on complex tasks. Because language processing is necessary for successful work performance, it is important to understand how it is affected by night work and sleep deprivation. Sixty-two participants completed a simulated night shift resulting in 28 hr of total sleep deprivation. Performance on a vigilance task and a dual auditory language task was examined across four testing sessions. The results indicate that working at night negatively impacts vigilance, auditory attention, and comprehension. The effects on the auditory task varied based on the content of the auditory material. When the material was interesting and easy, the participants performed better. Night work had a greater negative effect when the auditory material was less interesting and more difficult. These findings support research that vigilance decreases during the night. The results suggest that auditory comprehension suffers when individuals are required to work at night. Maintaining attention and controlling effort especially on passages that are less interesting or more difficult could improve performance during night shifts. The results from the current study apply to many work environments where decision making is necessary in response to complex auditory information. Better predicting the effects of night work on language processing is important for developing improved means of coping with shiftwork. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

A Community Perspective on the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions in the Boreal Forest of the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; DeLuca, W. V.; Duclos, T. R.; Foster, J. R.; Siren, A. P.

2016-12-01

The way that climate change will impact species ranges through habitat change and modify species interactions is not well enough understood. We took a community view of the climate-vulnerable, biologically-important spruce-fir forest ecosystem of the northeastern U.S., examining if and how species are responding to warming and changing precipitation patterns. We examined how fluctuations in temperature and snowpack influence distributional shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients; for example, milder winter conditions may allow generalist carnivores such as bobcats to access boreal forest habitat, increasing direct and indirect competition with Canada lynx and American marten for prey. In another example of climate-driven predation shifts, upslope shifts of American red squirrels may increase predation rates on vulnerable montane songbirds. We combined data from weather stations with model-based high resolution data to obtain information on historical and present climate variables. We forecasted spruce-fir forest extent using landscape and ecosystem models under a combination of global circulation model projections and representative concentration pathways for the northern Appalachians. Presence and abundance data from animal surveys were used to build occupancy models to assess the habitat, climate, and species relationships. Species responded individually with geographic variation in response within and across species. Some species closely tracked climate changes, whereas others showed no response, or even responses such as shifts southward that were counter to what would be expected. For example, although low elevation boreal bird species showed evidence of expanding upslope, most high elevation species expanded downslope. This work highlights the need to take a mechanistic perspective of species responses to climate change and avoid generalizations of simple shifts northward and upward. Understanding how climate change affects community dynamics will improve predictions of how individual species will respond to climate change. These predictions then provide information about how distributional shifts will occur in a biologically critical ecosystem and if there will be climate change refugia they can target for management.

Preventing Fusion Mass Shift Avoids Postoperative Distal Curve Adding-on in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis.

PubMed

Shigematsu, Hideki; Cheung, Jason Pui Yin; Bruzzone, Mauro; Matsumori, Hiroaki; Mak, Kin-Cheung; Samartzis, Dino; Luk, Keith Dip Kei

2017-05-01

Surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is only complete after achieving fusion to maintain the correction obtained intraoperatively. The instrumented or fused segments can be referred to as the "fusion mass". In patients with AIS, the ideal fusion mass strategy has been established based on fulcrum-bending radiographs for main thoracic curves. Ideally, the fusion mass should achieve parallel endplates of the upper and lower instrumented vertebra and correct any "shift" for truncal balance. Distal adding-on is an important element to consider in AIS surgery. This phenomenon represents a progressive increase in the number of vertebrae included distally in the primary curvature and it should be avoided as it is associated with unsatisfactory cosmesis and an increased risk of revision surgery. However, it remains unknown whether any fusion mass shift, or shift in the fusion mass or instrumented segments, affects global spinal balance and distal adding-on after curve correction surgery in patients with AIS. (1) To investigate the relationship among postoperative fusion mass shift, global balance, and distal adding-on phenomenon in patients with AIS; and (2) to identify a cutoff value of fusion mass shift that will lead to distal adding-on. This was a retrospective study of patients with AIS from a single institution. Between 2006 and 2011 we performed 69 selective thoracic fusions for patients with main thoracic AIS. All patients were evaluated preoperatively and at 2 years postoperatively. The Cobb angle between the cranial and caudal endplates of the fusion mass and the coronal shift between them, which was defined as "fusion mass shift", were measured. Patients with a fusion mass Cobb angle greater than 20° were excluded to specifically determine the effect of fusion mass shift on distal adding-on phenomenon. Fusion mass shift was empirically set as 20 mm for analysis. Therefore, of the 69 patients who underwent selective thoracic fusion, only 52 with a fusion mass Cobb angle of 20° or less were recruited for study. We defined patients with a fusion mass shift of 20 mm or less as the balanced group and those with a fusion mass shift greater than 20 mm as the unbalanced group. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cutoff point of fusion mass shift for adding-on. Of the 52 patients studied, fusion mass shift (> 20 mm) was noted in 11 (21%), and six of those patients had distal adding-on at final followup. Although global spinal balance did not differ significantly between patients with or without fusion mass shift, the occurrence of adding-on phenomenon was significantly higher in the unbalanced group (55% (six of 11 patients), odds ratio [OR], 8.6; 95% CI, 2-39; p < 0.002) than the balanced group (12% [five of 41 patients]). Based on the ROC curve analysis, a fusion mass shift more than 18 mm was observed as the cutoff point for distal adding-on phenomenon (area under the curve, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9; likelihood ratio, 5.0; sensitivity, 0.64; specificity, 0.73; positive predictive value, 39% [seven of 18 patients]; negative predictive value, 88% [30 of 34 patients]; OR, 4.8; 95% CI, 1-20; p = 0.02). Our study illustrates the substantial utility of the fulcrum-bending radiograph in determining fusion levels that can avoid fusion mass shift; thereby, underlining its importance in designing personalized surgical strategies for patients with scoliosis. Preoperatively, determining fusion levels by fulcrum-bending radiographs to avoid residual fusion mass shift is imperative. Intraoperatively, any fusion mass shift should be corrected to avoid distal adding-on, reoperation, and elevated healthcare costs. Level II, prognostic study.

Mechanism-based model for tumor drug resistance.

PubMed

Kuczek, T; Chan, T C

1992-01-01

The development of tumor resistance to cytotoxic agents has important implications in the treatment of cancer. If supported by experimental data, mathematical models of resistance can provide useful information on the underlying mechanisms and aid in the design of therapeutic regimens. We report on the development of a model of tumor-growth kinetics based on the assumption that the rates of cell growth in a tumor are normally distributed. We further assumed that the growth rate of each cell is proportional to its rate of total pyrimidine synthesis (de novo plus salvage). Using an ovarian carcinoma cell line (2008) and resistant variants selected for chronic exposure to a pyrimidine antimetabolite, N-phosphonacetyl-L-aspartate (PALA), we derived a simple and specific analytical form describing the growth curves generated in 72 h growth assays. The model assumes that the rate of de novo pyrimidine synthesis, denoted alpha, is shifted down by an amount proportional to the log10 PALA concentration and that cells whose rate of pyrimidine synthesis falls below a critical level, denoted alpha 0, can no longer grow. This is described by the equation: Probability (growth) = probability (alpha 0 less than alpha-constant x log10 [PALA]). This model predicts that when growth curves are plotted on probit paper, they will produce straight lines. This prediction is in agreement with the data we obtained for the 2008 cells. Another prediction of this model is that the same probit plots for the resistant variants should shift to the right in a parallel fashion. Probit plots of the dose-response data obtained for each resistant 2008 line following chronic exposure to PALA again confirmed this prediction. Correlation of the rightward shift of dose responses to uridine transport (r = 0.99) also suggests that salvage metabolism plays a key role in tumor-cell resistance to PALA. Furthermore, the slope of the regression lines enables the detection of synergy such as that observed between dipyridamole and PALA. Although the rate-normal model was used to study the rate of salvage metabolism in PALA resistance in the present study, it may be widely applicable to modeling of other resistance mechanisms such as gene amplification of target enzymes.

Analysis of the bond-valence method for calculating (29) Si and (31) P magnetic shielding in covalent network solids.

PubMed

Holmes, Sean T; Alkan, Fahri; Iuliucci, Robbie J; Mueller, Karl T; Dybowski, Cecil

2016-07-05

(29) Si and (31) P magnetic-shielding tensors in covalent network solids have been evaluated using periodic and cluster-based calculations. The cluster-based computational methodology employs pseudoatoms to reduce the net charge (resulting from missing co-ordination on the terminal atoms) through valence modification of terminal atoms using bond-valence theory (VMTA/BV). The magnetic-shielding tensors computed with the VMTA/BV method are compared to magnetic-shielding tensors determined with the periodic GIPAW approach. The cluster-based all-electron calculations agree with experiment better than the GIPAW calculations, particularly for predicting absolute magnetic shielding and for predicting chemical shifts. The performance of the DFT functionals CA-PZ, PW91, PBE, rPBE, PBEsol, WC, and PBE0 are assessed for the prediction of (29) Si and (31) P magnetic-shielding constants. Calculations using the hybrid functional PBE0, in combination with the VMTA/BV approach, result in excellent agreement with experiment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Examining paid sickness absence by shift workers.

PubMed

Catano, V M; Bissonnette, A B

2014-06-01

Shift workers are at greater risk than day workers with respect to psychological and physical health, yet little research has linked shift work to increased sickness absence. To investigate the relationship between shift work and sickness absence while controlling for organizational and individual characteristics and shift work attributes that have confounded previous research. The study used archive data collected from three national surveys in Canada, each involving over 20000 employees and 6000 private-sector firms in 14 different occupational groups. The employees reported the number of paid sickness absence days in the past 12 months. Data were analysed using both chi-squared statistics and hierarchical regressions. Contrary to previous research, shift workers took less paid sickness absence than day workers. There were no differences in the length of the sickness absence between both groups or in sickness absence taken by female and male workers whether working days or shifts. Only job tenure, the presence of a union in the workplace and working rotating shifts predicted sickness absence in shift workers. The results were consistent across all three samples. In general, shift work does not seem to be linked to increased sickness absence. However, such associations may be true for specific industries. Male and female workers did not differ in the amount of sickness absence taken. Rotating shifts, regardless of industry, predicted sickness absence among shift workers. Consideration should be given to implementing scheduled time off between shift changes. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Proton transfer and hydrogen bonding in the organic solid state: a combined XRD/XPS/ssNMR study of 17 organic acid-base complexes.

PubMed

Stevens, Joanna S; Byard, Stephen J; Seaton, Colin C; Sadiq, Ghazala; Davey, Roger J; Schroeder, Sven L M

2014-01-21

The properties of nitrogen centres acting either as hydrogen-bond or Brønsted acceptors in solid molecular acid-base complexes have been probed by N 1s X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) as well as (15)N solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) spectroscopy and are interpreted with reference to local crystallographic structure information provided by X-ray diffraction (XRD). We have previously shown that the strong chemical shift of the N 1s binding energy associated with the protonation of nitrogen centres unequivocally distinguishes protonated (salt) from hydrogen-bonded (co-crystal) nitrogen species. This result is further supported by significant ssNMR shifts to low frequency, which occur with proton transfer from the acid to the base component. Generally, only minor chemical shifts occur upon co-crystal formation, unless a strong hydrogen bond is formed. CASTEP density functional theory (DFT) calculations of (15)N ssNMR isotropic chemical shifts correlate well with the experimental data, confirming that computational predictions of H-bond strengths and associated ssNMR chemical shifts allow the identification of salt and co-crystal structures (NMR crystallography). The excellent agreement between the conclusions drawn by XPS and the combined CASTEP/ssNMR investigations opens up a reliable avenue for local structure characterization in molecular systems even in the absence of crystal structure information, for example for non-crystalline or amorphous matter. The range of 17 different systems investigated in this study demonstrates the generic nature of this approach, which will be applicable to many other molecular materials in organic, physical, and materials chemistry.

Validation of a Questionnaire to Screen for Shift Work Disorder

PubMed Central

Barger, Laura K.; Ogeil, Rowan P.; Drake, Christopher L.; O'Brien, Conor S.; Ng, Kim T.; Rajaratnam, Shantha M. W.

2012-01-01

Study Objective: At least 15% of the full-time work force is shift workers. Working during the overnight hours, early morning start times, and variable or rotating schedules present a challenge to the circadian system, and these shifts are associated with adverse health and safety consequences. Shift work disorder (SWD), a primary (circadian rhythm) sleep disorder indicated by excessive daytime sleepiness and/or insomnia associated with a shiftwork schedule, is under-recognized by primary care physicians. We sought to develop and validate a questionnaire to screen for high risk of SWD in a shift working population. Design: Shift workers completed a 26-item questionnaire and were evaluated by a sleep specialist (physician) who diagnosed them as either positive or negative for SWD. The physician assessment of SWD was guided by a flow chart that operationalized the ICSD-2 criteria for SWD. Setting: 18 sleep clinics in the USA. Patients or Participants: 311 shift workers. Interventions: Not applicable. Measurements and Results: Responses to the items in the questionnaire were entered into a series of discrimination function analyses to determine the diagnostic value of the items and the fewest number of questions with the best predictive value. The function was then cross-validated. A final 4-item questionnaire has 89% positive predictive value and 62% negative predictive value (sensitivity = 0.74; specificity = 0.82). Conclusions: This Shiftwork Disorder Screening Questionnaire may be appropriate for use in primary care settings to aid in the diagnosis of SWD. Citation: Barger LK; Ogeil RP; Drake CL; O'Brien CS; Ng KT; Rajaratnam SMW. Validation of a questionnaire to screen for shift work disorder. SLEEP 2012;35(12):1693–1703. PMID:23204612

Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.

PubMed

Amorim, Francisco; Carvalho, Sílvia B; Honrado, João; Rebelo, Hugo

2014-01-01

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

Socio-economic, Biophysical, and Perceptional Factors Associated with Agricultural Adaptation of Smallholder Farmers in Gujarat, Northwest India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Climate change is predicted to negatively impact many agricultural communities across the globe, particularly smallholder farmers who often do not have access to appropriate technologies to reduce their vulnerability. To better predict which farmers will be most impacted by future climate change at a regional scale, we use remote sensing and agricultural census data to examine how cropping intensity and crop type have shifted based on rainfall variability across Gujarat, India from 1990 to 2010. Using household-level interviews, we then identify the socio-economic, biophysical, perceptional, and psychological factors associated with smallholder farmers who are the most impacted and the least able to adapt to contemporaneous rainfall variability. We interviewed 750 farmers in 2011 and 2012 that span a rainfall, irrigation, socio-economic, and caste gradient across central Gujarat. Our results show that farmers shift cropping practices in several ways based on monsoon onset, which farmers state is the main observable rainfall signal influencing cropping decisions during the monsoon season. When monsoon onset is delayed, farmers opt to plant more drought-tolerant crops, push back the date of sowing, and increase the number of irrigations used. Comparing self-reported income and yields, we find that switching crops does not improve agricultural income, shifting planting date does not influence crop yield, yet increasing the number of irrigations significantly increases yield. Future work will identify which social (e.g. social networks), psychological (e.g. risk preference), and knowledge (e.g. information sources) factors are associated with farmers who are best able to adapt to rainfall variability.

TREX13 Data Analysis/Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

TREX13 data analysis /modeling Dajun (DJ) Tang Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105...accuracy in those predictions. With extensive TREX13 data in hand, the objective now shifts to realizing the long-term goals using data analysis and...be quantitatively addressed. The approach to analysis can be summarized into the following steps: 1. Based on measurements, assess to what degree

Genomic selection in a commercial winter wheat population.

PubMed

He, Sang; Schulthess, Albert Wilhelm; Mirdita, Vilson; Zhao, Yusheng; Korzun, Viktor; Bothe, Reiner; Ebmeyer, Erhard; Reif, Jochen C; Jiang, Yong

2016-03-01

Genomic selection models can be trained using historical data and filtering genotypes based on phenotyping intensity and reliability criterion are able to increase the prediction ability. We implemented genomic selection based on a large commercial population incorporating 2325 European winter wheat lines. Our objectives were (1) to study whether modeling epistasis besides additive genetic effects results in enhancement on prediction ability of genomic selection, (2) to assess prediction ability when training population comprised historical or less-intensively phenotyped lines, and (3) to explore the prediction ability in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion. We found a 5 % increase in prediction ability when shifting from additive to additive plus epistatic effects models. In addition, only a marginal loss from 0.65 to 0.50 in accuracy was observed using the data collected from 1 year to predict genotypes of the following year, revealing that stable genomic selection models can be accurately calibrated to predict subsequent breeding stages. Moreover, prediction ability was maximized when the genotypes evaluated in a single location were excluded from the training set but subsequently decreased again when the phenotyping intensity was increased above two locations, suggesting that the update of the training population should be performed considering all the selected genotypes but excluding those evaluated in a single location. The genomic prediction ability was substantially higher in subpopulations selected based on the reliability criterion, indicating that phenotypic selection for highly reliable individuals could be directly replaced by applying genomic selection to them. We empirically conclude that there is a high potential to assist commercial wheat breeding programs employing genomic selection approaches.

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

PubMed Central

Bewick, Sharon; Stuble, Katharine L; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe; Dunn, Robert R; Adler, Frederick R; Sanders, Nathan J

2014-01-01

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change. PMID:24963378

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

PubMed

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-12-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

PubMed Central

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects. PMID:24455138

Optimal Wavelength Selection on Hyperspectral Data with Fused Lasso for Biomass Estimation of Tropical Rain Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayama, T.; Iwasaki, A.

2016-06-01

Above-ground biomass prediction of tropical rain forest using remote sensing data is of paramount importance to continuous large-area forest monitoring. Hyperspectral data can provide rich spectral information for the biomass prediction; however, the prediction accuracy is affected by a small-sample-size problem, which widely exists as overfitting in using high dimensional data where the number of training samples is smaller than the dimensionality of the samples due to limitation of require time, cost, and human resources for field surveys. A common approach to addressing this problem is reducing the dimensionality of dataset. Also, acquired hyperspectral data usually have low signal-to-noise ratio due to a narrow bandwidth and local or global shifts of peaks due to instrumental instability or small differences in considering practical measurement conditions. In this work, we propose a methodology based on fused lasso regression that select optimal bands for the biomass prediction model with encouraging sparsity and grouping, which solves the small-sample-size problem by the dimensionality reduction from the sparsity and the noise and peak shift problem by the grouping. The prediction model provided higher accuracy with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 66.16 t/ha in the cross-validation than other methods; multiple linear analysis, partial least squares regression, and lasso regression. Furthermore, fusion of spectral and spatial information derived from texture index increased the prediction accuracy with RMSE of 62.62 t/ha. This analysis proves efficiency of fused lasso and image texture in biomass estimation of tropical forests.

Discovering disease-disease associations by fusing systems-level molecular data

PubMed Central

Žitnik, Marinka; Janjić, Vuk; Larminie, Chris; Zupan, Blaž; Pržulj, Nataša

2013-01-01

The advent of genome-scale genetic and genomic studies allows new insight into disease classification. Recently, a shift was made from linking diseases simply based on their shared genes towards systems-level integration of molecular data. Here, we aim to find relationships between diseases based on evidence from fusing all available molecular interaction and ontology data. We propose a multi-level hierarchy of disease classes that significantly overlaps with existing disease classification. In it, we find 14 disease-disease associations currently not present in Disease Ontology and provide evidence for their relationships through comorbidity data and literature curation. Interestingly, even though the number of known human genetic interactions is currently very small, we find they are the most important predictor of a link between diseases. Finally, we show that omission of any one of the included data sources reduces prediction quality, further highlighting the importance in the paradigm shift towards systems-level data fusion. PMID:24232732

Gravitational self-force correction to the innermost stable circular equatorial orbit of a Kerr black hole.

PubMed

Isoyama, Soichiro; Barack, Leor; Dolan, Sam R; Le Tiec, Alexandre; Nakano, Hiroyuki; Shah, Abhay G; Tanaka, Takahiro; Warburton, Niels

2014-10-17

For a self-gravitating particle of mass μ in orbit around a Kerr black hole of mass M ≫ μ, we compute the O(μ/M) shift in the frequency of the innermost stable circular equatorial orbit due to the conservative piece of the gravitational self-force acting on the particle. Our treatment is based on a Hamiltonian formulation of the dynamics in terms of geodesic motion in a certain locally defined effective smooth spacetime. We recover the same result using the so-called first law of binary black-hole mechanics. We give numerical results for the innermost stable circular equatorial orbit frequency shift as a function of the black hole's spin amplitude, and compare with predictions based on the post-Newtonian approximation and the effective one-body model. Our results provide an accurate strong-field benchmark for spin effects in the general-relativistic two-body problem.

Discovering disease-disease associations by fusing systems-level molecular data.

PubMed

Žitnik, Marinka; Janjić, Vuk; Larminie, Chris; Zupan, Blaž; Pržulj, Nataša

2013-11-15

The advent of genome-scale genetic and genomic studies allows new insight into disease classification. Recently, a shift was made from linking diseases simply based on their shared genes towards systems-level integration of molecular data. Here, we aim to find relationships between diseases based on evidence from fusing all available molecular interaction and ontology data. We propose a multi-level hierarchy of disease classes that significantly overlaps with existing disease classification. In it, we find 14 disease-disease associations currently not present in Disease Ontology and provide evidence for their relationships through comorbidity data and literature curation. Interestingly, even though the number of known human genetic interactions is currently very small, we find they are the most important predictor of a link between diseases. Finally, we show that omission of any one of the included data sources reduces prediction quality, further highlighting the importance in the paradigm shift towards systems-level data fusion.

Animal-Free Chemical Safety Assessment

PubMed Central

Loizou, George D.

2016-01-01

The exponential growth of the Internet of Things and the global popularity and remarkable decline in cost of the mobile phone is driving the digital transformation of medical practice. The rapidly maturing digital, non-medical world of mobile (wireless) devices, cloud computing and social networking is coalescing with the emerging digital medical world of omics data, biosensors and advanced imaging which offers the increasingly realistic prospect of personalized medicine. Described as a potential “seismic” shift from the current “healthcare” model to a “wellness” paradigm that is predictive, preventative, personalized and participatory, this change is based on the development of increasingly sophisticated biosensors which can track and measure key biochemical variables in people. Additional key drivers in this shift are metabolomic and proteomic signatures, which are increasingly being reported as pre-symptomatic, diagnostic and prognostic of toxicity and disease. These advancements also have profound implications for toxicological evaluation and safety assessment of pharmaceuticals and environmental chemicals. An approach based primarily on human in vivo and high-throughput in vitro human cell-line data is a distinct possibility. This would transform current chemical safety assessment practice which operates in a human “data poor” to a human “data rich” environment. This could also lead to a seismic shift from the current animal-based to an animal-free chemical safety assessment paradigm. PMID:27493630

Predicting diffusion paths and interface motion in gamma/gamma + beta, Ni-Cr-Al diffusion couples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, J. A.; Heckel, R. W.

1987-01-01

A simplified model has been developed to predict Beta recession and diffusion paths in ternary gamma/gamma + beta diffusion couples (gamma:fcc, beta: NiAl structure). The model was tested by predicting beta recession and diffusion paths for four gamma/gamma + beta, Ni-Cr-Al couples annealed for 100 hours at 1200 C. The model predicted beta recession within 20 percent of that measured for each of the couples. The model also predicted shifts in the concentration of the gamma phase at the gamma/gamma + beta interface within 2 at. pct Al and 6 at. pct Cr of that measured in each of the couples. A qualitative explanation based on simple kinetic and mass balance arguments has been given which demonstrates the necessity for diffusion in the two-phase region of certain gamma/gamma + beta, Ni-Cr-Al couples.

On Explaining Language Shift: Sociology or Social Psychology of Language?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maitz, Peter

2011-01-01

This study investigates the potentials and limits of sociolinguistic research on language shift. Starting from a position that the ultimate goal of the research must be to create a general theory of language shift of predictive power, the author examines the explanatory potential of current mainstream research methodology now regarded as canonical…

The interactive effects of press/pulse intensity and duration on regime shifts at multiple scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regime shifts are difficult-to-reverse transitions that occur when an ecosystem reorganizes around a new set of self-reinforcing feedbacks. Regime shifts are predicted to occur when the intensity of some exogenous driver variable, such as temperature, annual harvest rate, or nutrient addition rate, ...

Standardization of milk infrared spectra for the retroactive application of calibration models.

PubMed

Bonfatti, V; Fleming, A; Koeck, A; Miglior, F

2017-03-01

The objective of this study was to standardize the infrared spectra obtained over time and across 2 milk laboratories of Canada to create a uniform historical database and allow (1) the retroactive application of calibration models for prediction of fine milk composition; and (2) the direct use of spectral information for the development of indicators of animal health and efficiency. Spectral variation across laboratories and over time was inspected by principal components analysis (PCA). Shifts in the PCA scores were detected over time, leading to the definition of different subsets of spectra having homogeneous infrared signal. To evaluate the possibility of using common equations on spectra collected by the 2 instruments and over time, we developed a standardization (STD) method. For each subset of data having homogeneous infrared signal, a total of 99 spectra corresponding to the percentiles of the distribution of the absorbance at each wavenumber were created and used to build the STD matrices. Equations predicting contents of saturated fatty acids, short-chain fatty acids, and C18:0 were created and applied on different subsets of spectra, before and after STD. After STD, bias and root mean squared error of prediction decreased by 66% and 32%, respectively. When calibration equations were applied to the historical nonstandardized database of spectra, shifts in the predictions could be observed over time for all investigated traits. Shifts in the distribution of the predictions over time corresponded to the shifts identified by the inspection of the PCA scores. After STD, shifts in the predicted fatty acid contents were greatly reduced. Standardization reduced spectral variability between instruments and over time, allowing the merging of milk spectra data from different instruments into a common database, the retroactive use of calibrations equations, or the direct use of the spectral data without restrictions. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rotor Broadband Noise Prediction with Comparison to Model Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, Thomas F.; Burley, Casey L.

2001-01-01

This paper reports an analysis and prediction development of rotor broadband noise. The two primary components of this noise are Blade-Wake Interaction (BWI) noise, due to the blades' interaction with the turbulent wakes of the preceding blades, and "Self" noise, due to the development and shedding of turbulence within the blades' boundary layers. Emphasized in this report is the new code development for Self noise. The analysis and validation employs data from the HART program, a model BO-105 rotor wind tunnel test conducted in the German-Dutch Wind Tunnel (DNW). The BWI noise predictions are based on measured pressure response coherence functions using cross-spectral methods. The Self noise predictions are based on previously reported semiempirical modeling of Self noise obtained from isolated airfoil sections and the use of CAMRAD.Modl to define rotor performance and local blade segment flow conditions. Both BWI and Self noise from individual blade segments are Doppler shifted and summed at the observer positions. Prediction comparisons with measurements show good agreement for a range of rotor operating conditions from climb to steep descent. The broadband noise predictions, along with those of harmonic and impulsive Blade-Vortex Interaction (BVI) noise predictions, demonstrate a significant advance in predictive capability for main rotor noise.

Sensitivity of ab Initio vs Empirical Methods in Computing Structural Effects on NMR Chemical Shifts for the Example of Peptides.

PubMed

Sumowski, Chris Vanessa; Hanni, Matti; Schweizer, Sabine; Ochsenfeld, Christian

2014-01-14

The structural sensitivity of NMR chemical shifts as computed by quantum chemical methods is compared to a variety of empirical approaches for the example of a prototypical peptide, the 38-residue kaliotoxin KTX comprising 573 atoms. Despite the simplicity of empirical chemical shift prediction programs, the agreement with experimental results is rather good, underlining their usefulness. However, we show in our present work that they are highly insensitive to structural changes, which renders their use for validating predicted structures questionable. In contrast, quantum chemical methods show the expected high sensitivity to structural and electronic changes. This appears to be independent of the quantum chemical approach or the inclusion of solvent effects. For the latter, explicit solvent simulations with increasing number of snapshots were performed for two conformers of an eight amino acid sequence. In conclusion, the empirical approaches neither provide the expected magnitude nor the patterns of NMR chemical shifts determined by the clearly more costly ab initio methods upon structural changes. This restricts the use of empirical prediction programs in studies where peptide and protein structures are utilized for the NMR chemical shift evaluation such as in NMR refinement processes, structural model verifications, or calculations of NMR nuclear spin relaxation rates.

Predictive global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socio-economic status, and demographic shift.

PubMed

Are, Chandrakanth; Chowdhury, Sanjib; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Song, Tianqiang; Shrikandhe, Shailesh; Smith, Lynette

2016-11-01

Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy that accounts for about 4% of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography (based on WHO regions), socio-economic development (based on Human Development Index [HDI]) and demographic shift on the temporal trends in global incidence and mortality of PC. Data (2012-2030) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends in total incidence and mortality. We noted a definite association between PC and higher socio-economic status. Advanced age (age ≥65) contributed to the rising burden in all socio-economic regions of the world except in the Low Human Development (LHD) countries where the disease predominantly affected population <65 years of age. The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geographic location, socio-economic development, age and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help formulate strategies to specifically target countries and populations that promote public health policy to tackle this lethal disease on the global stage. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:736-742. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analytical prediction of sub-surface thermal history in translucent tissue phantoms during plasmonic photo-thermotherapy (PPTT).

PubMed

Dhar, Purbarun; Paul, Anup; Narasimhan, Arunn; Das, Sarit K

2016-12-01

Knowledge of thermal history and/or distribution in biological tissues during laser based hyperthermia is essential to achieve necrosis of tumour/carcinoma cells. A semi-analytical model to predict sub-surface thermal distribution in translucent, soft, tissue mimics has been proposed. The model can accurately predict the spatio-temporal temperature variations along depth and the anomalous thermal behaviour in such media, viz. occurrence of sub-surface temperature peaks. Based on optical and thermal properties, the augmented temperature and shift of the peak positions in case of gold nanostructure mediated tissue phantom hyperthermia can be predicted. Employing inverse approach, the absorption coefficient of nano-graphene infused tissue mimics is determined from the peak temperature and found to provide appreciably accurate predictions along depth. Furthermore, a simplistic, dimensionally consistent correlation to theoretically determine the position of the peak in such media is proposed and found to be consistent with experiments and computations. The model shows promise in predicting thermal distribution induced by lasers in tissues and deduction of therapeutic hyperthermia parameters, thereby assisting clinical procedures by providing a priori estimates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biophysics, environmental stochasticity, and the evolution of thermal safety margins in intertidal limpets.

PubMed

Denny, M W; Dowd, W W

2012-03-15

As the air temperature of the Earth rises, ecological relationships within a community might shift, in part due to differences in the thermal physiology of species. Prediction of these shifts - an urgent task for ecologists - will be complicated if thermal tolerance itself can rapidly evolve. Here, we employ a mechanistic approach to predict the potential for rapid evolution of thermal tolerance in the intertidal limpet Lottia gigantea. Using biophysical principles to predict body temperature as a function of the state of the environment, and an environmental bootstrap procedure to predict how the environment fluctuates through time, we create hypothetical time-series of limpet body temperatures, which are in turn used as a test platform for a mechanistic evolutionary model of thermal tolerance. Our simulations suggest that environmentally driven stochastic variation of L. gigantea body temperature results in rapid evolution of a substantial 'safety margin': the average lethal limit is 5-7°C above the average annual maximum temperature. This predicted safety margin approximately matches that found in nature, and once established is sufficient, in our simulations, to allow some limpet populations to survive a drastic, century-long increase in air temperature. By contrast, in the absence of environmental stochasticity, the safety margin is dramatically reduced. We suggest that the risk of exceeding the safety margin, rather than the absolute value of the safety margin, plays an underappreciated role in the evolution of thermal tolerance. Our predictions are based on a simple, hypothetical, allelic model that connects genetics to thermal physiology. To move beyond this simple model - and thereby potentially to predict differential evolution among populations and among species - will require significant advances in our ability to translate the details of thermal histories into physiological and population-genetic consequences.

Ab initio/GIAO-CCSD(T) (13)C NMR study of the rearrangement and dynamic aspects of rapidly equilibrating tertiary carbocations, C6H13(+) and C7H15(+).

PubMed

Olah, George A; Prakash, G K Surya; Rasul, Golam

2016-01-05

The rearrangement pathways of the equilibrating tertiary carbocations, 2,3-dimethyl-2-butyl cation (C6H13(+), 1), 2,3,3-trimethyl-2-butyl cation (C7H15(+), 5) and 2,3-dimethyl-2-pentyl cation (C7H15(+), 8 and 9) were investigated using the ab initio/GIAO-CCSD(T) (13)C NMR method. Comparing the calculated and experimental (13)C NMR chemical shifts of a series of carbocations indicates that excellent prediction of δ(13)C could be achieved through scaling. In the case of symmetrical equilibrating cations (1 and 5) the Wagner-Meerwein 1,2-hydride and 1,2-methide shifts, respectively, produce the same structure. This indicates that the overall (13)C NMR chemical shifts are conserved and independent of temperature. However, in the case of unsymmetrical equilibrating cations (8 and 9) the Wagner-Meerwein shift produces different tertiary structures, which have slightly different thermodynamic stabilities and, thus, different spectra. At the MP4(SDTQ)/cc-pVTZ//MP2/cc-pVTZ + ZPE level structure 8 is only 90 calories/mol more stable than structure 9. Based on computed (13)C NMR chemical shift calculations, mole fractions of these isomers were determined by assuming the observed chemical shifts are due to the weighted average of the chemical shifts of the static ions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of COSHH essentials: methylene chloride, isopropanol, and acetone exposures in a small printing plant.

PubMed

Lee, Eun Gyung; Harper, Martin; Bowen, Russell B; Slaven, James

2009-07-01

The current study evaluated the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials model for short-term task-based exposures and full-shift exposures using measured concentrations of three volatile organic chemicals at a small printing plant. A total of 188 exposure measurements of isopropanol and 187 measurements of acetone were collected and each measurement took approximately 60 min. Historically, collected time-weighted average concentrations (seven results) were evaluated for methylene chloride. The COSHH Essentials model recommended general ventilation control for both isopropanol and acetone. There was good agreement between the task-based exposure measurements and the COSHH Essentials predicted exposure range (PER) for cleaning and print preparation with isopropanol and for cleaning with acetone. For the other tasks and for full-shift exposures, agreement between the exposure measurements and the PER was either moderate or poor. However, for both isopropanol and acetone, our findings suggested that the COSHH Essentials model worked reasonably well because the probabilities of short-term exposure measurements exceeding short-term occupational exposure limits (OELs) or full-shift exposures exceeding the corresponding full-shift OELs were <0.05 under the recommended control strategy. For methylene chloride, the COSHH Essentials recommended containment control but a follow-up study was not able to be performed because it had already been replaced with a less hazardous substance (acetone). This was considered a more acceptable alternative to increasing the level of control.

Exploring function activated chlorins using MCD spectroscopy and DFT methods: design of a chlorin with a remarkably intense, red Q band.

PubMed

Zhang, Angel; Stillman, Martin J

2018-05-09

The electronic structures of three previously synthesized Ni-coordinated chlorins with β-substituents of thioketone, fluorene, and ketone were investigated using magnetic circular dichroism spectroscopy (MCD) and density functional theory (DFT) for potential application as sensitizers for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). Computational studies on modeled Zn-coordinated chlorins allowed identification of charge transfer and d-d transitions of the Ni2+ coordinated chlorins. Two fictive Zn chlorins, M1 and M2, were designed with thiophene units based on the fluorene substituted chlorin. Substitution with thiophene altered the typical arrangement of the four Gouterman molecular orbitals (MOs) and red-shifted and greatly intensified the lowest energy absorption band (the Q band). The introduction of the thiophene-based MO as the LUMO below the usual Gouterman LUMO is predicted to increase the efficiency of electron transfer from the dye to the conduction band of the semiconductor in DSSCs. The addition of a donor group on the opposite pyrrole (M2) red-shifted the Q band further and introduced a donor-based MO between the typical Gouterman HOMO and HOMO-1. Despite the relatively small ΔHOMO, M1 and M2 exhibited remarkably intense Q bands. M2 would be a possible candidate for application in DSSCs due to its panchromatic absorption, intense and red-shifted Q band, and the presence of the substituent based MO properties. Another indicator of a successful dye is the alignment of the ground state and excited state oxidation potentials (GSOP and ESOP, respectively) with respect to the conduction band of the semiconductor. The GSOP for M2 lies 0.55 eV below the I-/I3- redox potential and the ESOP lies 0.48 eV above the TiO2 conduction band. The impact of the thiophene dominance in the LUMO also supports the prediction of efficient sensitization properties. The remarkably intense Q band of M2 predicted to be at 777 nm with a ΔHOMO of just 1.04 eV provides a synthetic route to tetrapyrroles with extremely intense, red Q bands without the need for aza nitrogens of the phthalocyanines. This study illustrates the value of guided synthesis using MCD spectral analysis and computational methods for optimizing the design of porphyrin dyes.

Modelling growth of Penicillium expansum and Aspergillus niger at constant and fluctuating temperature conditions.

PubMed

Gougouli, Maria; Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos P

2010-06-15

The growth of Penicillium expansum and Aspergillus niger, isolated from yogurt production environment, was investigated on malt extract agar with pH=4.2 and a(w)=0.997, simulating yogurt, at isothermal conditions ranging from -1.3 to 35 degrees C and from 5 to 42.3 degrees C, respectively. The growth rate (mu) and (apparent) lag time (lambda) of the mycelium growth were modelled as a function of temperature using a Cardinal Model with Inflection (CMI). The results showed that the CMI can describe successfully the effect of temperature on fungal growth within the entire biokinetic range for both isolates. The estimated values of the CMI for mu were T(min)=-5.74 degrees C, T(max)=30.97 degrees C, T(opt)=22.08 degrees C and mu(opt)=0.221 mm/h for P. expansum and T(min)=10.13 degrees C, T(max)=43.13 degrees C, T(opt)=31.44 degrees C, and mu(opt)=0.840 mm/h for A. niger. The cardinal values for lambda were very close to the respective values for mu indicating similar temperature dependence of the growth rate and the lag time of the mycelium growth. The developed models were further validated under fluctuating temperature conditions using various dynamic temperature scenarios. The time-temperature conditions studied included single temperature shifts before or after the end of the lag time and continuous periodic temperature fluctuations. The prediction of growth at changing temperature was based on the assumption that after a temperature shift the growth rate is adopted instantaneously to the new temperature, while the lag time was predicted using a cumulative lag approach. The results showed that when the temperature shifts occurred before the end of the lag, they did not cause any significant additional lag and the observed total lag was very close to the cumulative lag predicted by the model. In experiments with temperature shifts after the end of the lag time, accurate predictions were obtained when the temperature profile included temperatures which were inside the region of growth, showing that the assumption that mu is adopted instantaneously to the current temperature is concrete. In contrast, for scenarios with temperatures close or outside the growth region the models overestimated growth, indicating that fungi were stressed by this type of temperature shifts. The present study provides useful data for understanding the behavior of P. expansum and A. niger at dynamic temperature conditions while the developed models can be used as effective tools in assessing the risk of fungal spoilage and predicting shelf life of foods. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

PubMed Central

Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

2015-01-01

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise.

PubMed

Runting, Rebecca K; Wilson, Kerrie A; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2013-02-01

Many studies have explored the benefits of adopting more sophisticated modelling techniques or spatial data in terms of our ability to accurately predict ecosystem responses to global change. However, we currently know little about whether the improved predictions will actually lead to better conservation outcomes once the costs of gaining improved models or data are accounted for. This severely limits our ability to make strategic decisions for adaptation to global pressures, particularly in landscapes subject to dynamic change such as the coastal zone. In such landscapes, the global phenomenon of sea level rise is a critical consideration for preserving biodiversity. Here, we address this issue in the context of making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity with a limited budget. Specifically, we determined the cost-effectiveness of investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models for predicting wetland shifts in a coastal region of South East Queensland, Australia. We evaluated the resulting priority areas for reserve selection to quantify the cost-effectiveness of investment in better quantifying biological and physical processes. We show that, in this case, it is considerably more cost effective to use a process-based model and high-resolution elevation data, even if this requires a substantial proportion of the project budget to be expended (up to 99% in one instance). The less accurate model and data set failed to identify areas of high conservation value, reducing the cost-effectiveness of the resultant conservation plan. This suggests that when developing conservation plans in areas where sea level rise threatens biodiversity, investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models to predict shifts in coastal ecosystems may be highly cost effective. A future research priority is to determine how this cost-effectiveness varies among different regions across the globe. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Cue reliability and a landmark stability heuristic determine relative weighting between egocentric and allocentric visual information in memory-guided reach.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas

2010-06-01

It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.

Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Esque, Todd C.

2014-01-01

The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.

Disentangling climate change effects on species interactions: effects of temperature, phenological shifts, and body size.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Singh, Manasvini

2013-11-01

Climate-mediated shifts in species' phenologies are expected to alter species interactions, but predicting the consequences of this is difficult because phenological shifts may be driven by different climate factors that may or may not be correlated. Temperature could be an important factor determining effects of phenological shifts by altering species' growth rates and thereby the relative size ratios of interacting species. We tested this hypothesis by independently manipulating temperature and the relative hatching phenologies of two competing amphibian species. Relative shifts in hatching time generally altered the strength of competition, but the presence and magnitude of this effect was temperature dependent and joint effects of temperature and hatching phenology were non-additive. Species that hatched relatively early or late performed significantly better or worse, respectively, but only at higher temperatures and not at lower temperatures. As a consequence, climate-mediated shifts in hatching phenology or temperature resulted in stronger or weaker effects than expected when both factors acted in concert. Furthermore, consequences of phenological shifts were asymmetric; arriving relatively early had disproportional stronger (or weaker) effects than arriving relatively late, and this varied with species identity. However, consistent with recent theory, these seemingly idiosyncratic effects of phenological shifts could be explained by species-specific differences in growth rates across temperatures and concordant shifts in relative body size of interacting species. Our results emphasize the need to account for environmental conditions when predicting the effects of phenological shifts, and suggest that shifts in size-structured interactions can mediate the impact of climate change on natural communities.

Common-Path Interferometric Wavefront Sensing for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, James Kent

2011-01-01

This paper presents an optical configuration for a common-path phase-shifting interferometric wavefront sensor.1 2 This sensor has a host of attractive features which make it well suited for space-based adaptive optics. First, it is strictly reflective and therefore operates broadband, second it is common mode and therefore does not suffer from systematic errors (like vibration) that are typical in other interferometers, third it is a phase-shifting interferometer and therefore benefits from both the sensitivity of interferometric sensors as well as the noise rejection afforded by synchronous detection. Unlike the Shack-Hartman wavefront sensor, it has nearly uniform sensitivity to all pupil modes. Optical configuration, theory and simulations for such a system will be discussed along with predicted performance.

Site-specific seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation in the western United States using the NGA models for ground-motion prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, Stephen

2011-01-01

In addition, this report shows how incorporating geologic site condition information alters the values of the dominating magnitudes and distances in deaggregation-5-Hz values for a site near San Quentin, Calif., and 5-Hz and 1-Hz values for Harbor Island near Seattle, Wash. These deaggregations show that the modal event can shift from a larger closer source to a more distant, perhaps smaller source when nonlinear soil behavior is explicitly included in the hazard integral. The potential shift in the mode when considering the soil column's effect ought to be carefully considered by engineers who select scenario events based in part on the distribution in magnitude, distance, and epsilon space.

How Responsive Is Investment in Schooling to Changes in Returns? Evidence from an Unusual Pay Reform in Israel's Kibbutzim. NBER Working Paper No. 17093

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramitzky, Ran; Lavy, Victor

2011-01-01

This paper uses a novel dataset to test the important theoretical prediction that the level of investment in schooling is increasing in the rate of return to education. We exploit a unique episode where different Israeli kibbutzim shifted from equal sharing to productivity-based wages in different years, resulting in sharp increases in the return…

Quantum mechanical calculation of electric fields and vibrational Stark shifts at active site of human aldose reductase

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Xianwei; State Key Laboratory of Precision Spectroscopy, Institute of Theoretical and Computational Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062; Zhang, John Z. H.

2015-11-14

Recent advance in biophysics has made it possible to directly measure site-specific electric field at internal sites of proteins using molecular probes with C = O or C≡N groups in the context of vibrational Stark effect. These measurements directly probe changes of electric field at specific protein sites due to, e.g., mutation and are very useful in protein design. Computational simulation of the Stark effect based on force fields such as AMBER and OPLS, while providing good insight, shows large errors in comparison to experimental measurement due to inherent difficulties associated with point charge based representation of force fields. Inmore » this study, quantum mechanical calculation of protein’s internal electrostatic properties and vibrational Stark shifts was carried out by using electrostatically embedded generalized molecular fractionation with conjugate caps method. Quantum calculated change of mutation-induced electric field and vibrational Stark shift is reported at the internal probing site of enzyme human aldose reductase. The quantum result is in much better agreement with experimental data than those predicted by force fields, underscoring the deficiency of traditional point charge models describing intra-protein electrostatic properties.« less

Design and Processing of a Novel Chaos-Based Stepped Frequency Synthesized Wideband Radar Signal.

PubMed

Zeng, Tao; Chang, Shaoqiang; Fan, Huayu; Liu, Quanhua

2018-03-26

The linear stepped frequency and linear frequency shift keying (FSK) signal has been widely used in radar systems. However, such linear modulation signals suffer from the range-Doppler coupling that degrades radar multi-target resolution. Moreover, the fixed frequency-hopping or frequency-coded sequence can be easily predicted by the interception receiver in the electronic countermeasures (ECM) environments, which limits radar anti-jamming performance. In addition, the single FSK modulation reduces the radar low probability of intercept (LPI) performance, for it cannot achieve a large time-bandwidth product. To solve such problems, we propose a novel chaos-based stepped frequency (CSF) synthesized wideband signal in this paper. The signal introduces chaotic frequency hopping between the coherent stepped frequency pulses, and adopts a chaotic frequency shift keying (CFSK) and phase shift keying (PSK) composited coded modulation in a subpulse, called CSF-CFSK/PSK. Correspondingly, the processing method for the signal has been proposed. According to our theoretical analyses and the simulations, the proposed signal and processing method achieve better multi-target resolution and LPI performance. Furthermore, flexible modulation is able to increase the robustness against identification of the interception receiver and improve the anti-jamming performance of the radar.

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift

Treesearch

Peter S.A. Beck; Glenn P. Juday; Claire Alix; Valerie A. Barber; Stephen E. Winslow; Emily E. Sousa; Patricia Heiser; James D. Herriges; Scott J. Goetz

2011-01-01

Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest...

Interactions of changing climate and shifts in forest composition on stand carbon balance

Treesearch

Chiang Jyh-Min; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim Brown

2006-01-01

Given that climate influences forest biogeographic distribution, many researchers have created models predicting shifts in tree species range with future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to investigate the forest carbon consequences of shifts in stand species composition with current and future climate scenarios using such a model.

Discovery of the Electronic Spectra of Hps and Dps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimminger, Robert A.; Wei, Jie; Ellis, Blaine; Clouthier, Dennis J.; Wang, Zhong; Sears, Trevor

2009-06-01

The hitherto unknown electronic spectrum of the closed shell transient molecule HPS has been observed in the 685 - 846 nm region by laser-induced fluorescence and single vibronic level emission techniques. HPS (and DPS) were produced in a pulsed electric discharge jet using a precursor mixture of 3% PH_3 and 1% H_2S (or PD_3 and D_2S) in high pressure argon. The weak set of observed bands are assigned to the à ^1A^''-X˜ ^1A^' electronic transition on the basis of chemical evidence, isotope shifts and the correspondence of the vibrational frequencies, excitation energy, and band contours with predictions based on our own high level ab initio calculations. Theory predicts that the HPS bond angle decreases on electronic excitation, contrary to expectations based on Walsh diagrams.

New experiments on the effect of clock shifts on homing in pigeons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt-Koenig, K.

1972-01-01

The effect of clock shifts as an experimental tool for predictably interfering with the homing ability of birds is discussed. Clock shifts introduce specific errors in the birds' sun azimuth compass, resulting in corresponding errors during initial orientation and possibly during orientation enroute. The effects of 6 hour and 12 hour clock shifts resulted in a 90 degree deviation and a 180 degree deviation from the initial orientation, respectively. The method for conducting the clock shift experiments and results obtained from previous experiments are described.

Expect the unexpected: a paradoxical effect of cue validity on the orienting of attention.

PubMed

Jollie, Ashley; Ivanoff, Jason; Webb, Nicole E; Jamieson, Andrew S

2016-10-01

Predictive central cues generate location-based expectancies, voluntary shifts of attention, and facilitate target processing. Often, location-based expectancies and voluntary attention are confounded in cueing tasks. Here we vary the predictability of central cues to determine whether they can evoke the inhibition of target processing in three go/no-go experiments. In the first experiment, the central cue was uninformative and did not predict the target's location. Importantly, these cues did not seem to affect target processing. In the second experiment, the central cue indicated the most or the least likely location of the target. Surprisingly, both types of cues facilitated target processing at the cued location. In the third experiment, the central cue predicted the most likely location of a no-go target, but it did not provide relevant information pertaining to the location of the go target. Again, the central cue facilitated processing of the go target. These results suggest that efforts to strategically allocate inhibition may be thwarted by the paradoxical monitoring of the cued location. The current findings highlight the need to further explore the relationship between location-based expectancies and spatial attention in cueing tasks.

The transition to foraging for dense and predictable resources and its impact on the evolution of modern humans.

PubMed

Marean, Curtis W

2016-07-05

Scientists have identified a series of milestones in the evolution of the human food quest that are anticipated to have had far-reaching impacts on biological, behavioural and cultural evolution: the inclusion of substantial portions of meat, the broad spectrum revolution and the transition to food production. The foraging shift to dense and predictable resources is another key milestone that had consequential impacts on the later part of human evolution. The theory of economic defendability predicts that this shift had an important consequence-elevated levels of intergroup territoriality and conflict. In this paper, this theory is integrated with a well-established general theory of hunter-gatherer adaptations and is used to make predictions for the sequence of appearance of several evolved traits of modern humans. The distribution of dense and predictable resources in Africa is reviewed and found to occur only in aquatic contexts (coasts, rivers and lakes). The palaeoanthropological empirical record contains recurrent evidence for a shift to the exploitation of dense and predictable resources by 110 000 years ago, and the first known occurrence is in a marine coastal context in South Africa. Some theory predicts that this elevated conflict would have provided the conditions for selection for the hyperprosocial behaviours unique to modern humans.This article is part of the themed issue 'Major transitions in human evolution'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The transition to foraging for dense and predictable resources and its impact on the evolution of modern humans

PubMed Central

Marean, Curtis W.

2016-01-01

Scientists have identified a series of milestones in the evolution of the human food quest that are anticipated to have had far-reaching impacts on biological, behavioural and cultural evolution: the inclusion of substantial portions of meat, the broad spectrum revolution and the transition to food production. The foraging shift to dense and predictable resources is another key milestone that had consequential impacts on the later part of human evolution. The theory of economic defendability predicts that this shift had an important consequence—elevated levels of intergroup territoriality and conflict. In this paper, this theory is integrated with a well-established general theory of hunter–gatherer adaptations and is used to make predictions for the sequence of appearance of several evolved traits of modern humans. The distribution of dense and predictable resources in Africa is reviewed and found to occur only in aquatic contexts (coasts, rivers and lakes). The palaeoanthropological empirical record contains recurrent evidence for a shift to the exploitation of dense and predictable resources by 110 000 years ago, and the first known occurrence is in a marine coastal context in South Africa. Some theory predicts that this elevated conflict would have provided the conditions for selection for the hyperprosocial behaviours unique to modern humans. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Major transitions in human evolution’. PMID:27298470

Roles of safety climate and shift work on perceived injury risk: a multi-level analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; DeArmond, Sarah; Cigularov, Konstantin; Chen, Peter Y

2007-11-01

This study evaluated the relationship between employees' work shift (i.e., day shift versus night shift) and perceptions of injury risk, and how the relationship is affected by company level safety climate and injury frequency. The results showed that night shift workers perceived a higher level of injury risk compared to day shift workers. Both company level safety climate and injury frequency played critical roles in predicting individual perceived work injury risk. Perception of injury risk of night shift workers was significantly lower when they perceived high-level rather than low-level safety climate. However, this pattern was not noticeable for day shift workers. These findings highlighted the importance of considering company level factors when attempting to understand the differences between day shift and night shift work on an individual's perception of injury risk.

Analysis of the irradiation data for A302B and A533B correlation monitor materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, J.A.

1996-04-01

The results of Charpy V-notch impact tests for A302B and A533B-1 Correlation Monitor Materials (CMM) listed in the surveillance power reactor data base (PR-EDB) and material test reactor data base (TR-EDB) are analyzed. The shift of the transition temperature at 30 ft-lb (T{sub 30}) is considered as the primary measure of radiation embrittlement in this report. The hyperbolic tangent fitting model and uncertainty of the fitting parameters for Charpy impact tests are presented in this report. For the surveillance CMM data, the transition temperature shifts at 30 ft-lb ({Delta}T{sub 30}) generally follow the predictions provided by Revision 2 of Regulatorymore » Guide 1.99 (R.G. 1.99). Difference in capsule temperatures is a likely explanation for large deviations from R.G. 1.99 predictions. Deviations from the R.G. 1.99 predictions are correlated to similar deviations for the accompanying materials in the same capsules, but large random fluctuations prevent precise quantitative determination. Significant scatter is noted in the surveillance data, some of which may be attributed to variations from one specimen set to another, or inherent in Charpy V-notch testing. The major contributions to the uncertainty of the R.G. 1.99 prediction model, and the overall data scatter are from mechanical test results, chemical analysis, irradiation environments, fluence evaluation, and inhomogeneous material properties. Thus in order to improve the prediction model, control of the above-mentioned error sources needs to be improved. In general the embrittlement behavior of both the A302B and A533B-1 plate materials is similar. There is evidence for a fluence-rate effect in the CMM data irradiated in test reactors; thus its implication on power reactor surveillance programs deserves special attention.« less

Arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift for recurrent anterior shoulder instability: functional outcomes and identification of risk factors for recurrence.

PubMed

Ahmed, Issaq; Ashton, Fiona; Robinson, Christopher Michael

2012-07-18

Arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift is a well-established technique for the treatment of anterior shoulder instability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift and to identify risk factors that are predictive of recurrence of glenohumeral instability. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database consisting of 302 patients who had undergone arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift for the treatment of recurrent anterior glenohumeral instability. The prevalence of patient and injury-related risk factors for recurrence was assessed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the predicted probability of recurrence within two years. The chief outcome measures were the risk of recurrence and the two-year functional outcomes assessed with the Western Ontario shoulder instability index (WOSI) and disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) scores. The rate of recurrent glenohumeral instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift was 13.2%. The median time to recurrence was twelve months, and this complication developed within one year in 55% of these patients. The risk of recurrence was independently predicted by the patient's age at surgery, the severity of glenoid bone loss, and the presence of an engaging Hill-Sachs lesion (all p < 0.001). These variables were incorporated into a model to provide an estimate of the risk of recurrence after surgery. Varying the cutoff level for the predicted probability of recurrence in the model from 50% to lower values increased the sensitivity of the model to detect recurrences but decreased the positive predictive value of the model to correctly predict failed repairs. There was a significant improvement in the mean WOSI and DASH scores at two years postoperatively (both p < 0.001), but the mean scores in the group with recurrence were significantly lower than those in the group without recurrence (both p < 0.001). Our study identified factors that are independently associated with a higher risk of recurrence following arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift. These data can be useful for counseling patients undergoing this procedure for the treatment of recurrent glenohumeral instability and individualizing treatment options for particular groups of patients. Prognostic level I. See Instructions for authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Character displacement in the fighting colours of Hetaerina damselflies.

PubMed

Anderson, Christopher N; Grether, Gregory F

2010-12-07

Aggression between species is a seldom-considered but potentially widespread mechanism of character displacement in secondary sexual characters. Based on previous research showing that similarity in wing coloration directly influences interspecific territorial aggression in Hetaerina damselflies, we predicted that wing coloration would show a pattern of character displacement (divergence in sympatry). A geographical survey of four Hetaerina damselfly species in Mexico and Texas showed evidence for character displacement in both species pairs that regularly occurs sympatrically. Hetaerina titia, a species that typically has large black wing spots and small red wing spots, shifted to having even larger black spots and smaller red wing spots at sites where a congener with large red wing spots is numerically dominant (Hetaerina americana or Hetaerina occisa). Hetaerina americana showed the reverse pattern, shifting towards larger red wing spots where H. titia is numerically dominant. This pattern is consistent with the process of agonistic character displacement, but the ontogenetic basis of the shift remains to be demonstrated.

Brain cancer probed by native fluorescence and stokes shift spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yan; Liu, Cheng-hui; He, Yong; Pu, Yang; Li, Qingbo; Wang, Wei; Alfano, Robert R.

2012-12-01

Optical biopsy spectroscopy was applied to diagnosis human brain cancer in vitro. The spectra of native fluorescence, Stokes shift and excitation spectra were obtained from malignant meningioma, benign, normal meningeal tissues and acoustic neuroma benign tissues. The wide excitation wavelength ranges were used to establish the criterion for distinguishing brain diseases. The alteration of fluorescence spectra between normal and abnormal brain tissues were identified by the characteristic fluorophores under the excitation with UV to visible wavelength range. It was found that the ratios of the peak intensities and peak position in both spectra of fluorescence and Stokes shift may be used to diagnose human brain meninges diseases. The preliminary analysis of fluorescence spectral data from cancer and normal meningeal tissues by basic biochemical component analysis model (BBCA) and Bayes classification model based on statistical methods revealed the changes of components, and classified the difference between cancer and normal human brain meningeal tissues in a predictions accuracy rate is 0.93 in comparison with histopathology and immunohistochemistry reports (gold standard).

Spectroscopic and DFT studies of bis-3-hydroxypyridinium and bis-3-hydroxymethylpyridinium dibromides with tetramethylene linker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komasa, Anna

2018-01-01

Experimental and theoretical IR, Raman, UV-Vis, 1H and 13C NMR spectra of 1,4-di(3-hydroxypyridinium)butane dibromide and 1,4-di(3-hydroxymethylpyridinium)butane dibromide were obtained and analyzed. Optimized geometrical structures of the studied compounds were calculated by B3LYP method using 6-311++G(d,p) basis set and employed to determine the theoretical wavenumbers and intensities of IR and Raman spectra. The frequency assignments were supported by the potential energy distribution (PED) analysis. The significant role of the intermolecular interactions and the hydrogen bond was revealed on the basis of IR spectra. The calculated GIAO/B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) isotropic magnetic shielding constants were used to predict the 1H and 13C chemical shifts for the optimized structures. Accuracy of the prediction of 1H and 13C chemical shifts was significantly improved by a simulation of the solvent in calculations. On the basis of UV-Vis spectra the acid-base equilibrium in the water solution of 1,4-di(3-hydroxypyridinium)butane dibromide was found.

Testing Modified Gravity Theories via Wide Binaries and GAIA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittordis, Charalambos; Sutherland, Will

2018-06-01

The standard ΛCDM model based on General Relativity (GR) including cold dark matter (CDM) is very successful at fitting cosmological observations, but recent non-detections of candidate dark matter (DM) particles mean that various modified-gravity theories remain of significant interest. The latter generally involve modifications to GR below a critical acceleration scale ˜10-10 m s-2. Wide-binary (WB) star systems with separations ≳ 5 kAU provide an interesting test for modified gravity, due to being in or near the low-acceleration regime and presumably containing negligible DM. Here, we explore the prospects for new observations pending from the GAIA spacecraft to provide tests of GR against MOND or TeVes-like theories in a regime only partially explored to date. In particular, we find that a histogram of (3D) binary relative velocities, relative to equilibrium circular velocity predicted from the (2D) projected separation predicts a rather sharp feature in this distribution for standard gravity, with an 80th (90th) percentile value close to 1.025 (1.14) with rather weak dependence on the eccentricity distribution. However, MOND/TeVeS theories produce a shifted distribution, with a significant increase in these upper percentiles. In MOND-like theories without an external field effect, there are large shifts of order unity. With the external field effect included, the shifts are considerably reduced to ˜0.04 - 0.08, but are still potentially detectable statistically given reasonably large samples and good control of contaminants. In principle, followup of GAIA-selected wide binaries with ground-based radial velocities accurate to ≲ 0.03 { km s^{-1}} should be able to produce an interesting new constraint on modified-gravity theories.

Prediction of the potential global distribution for Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni

PubMed Central

Yang, Ya; Cheng, Wanting; Wu, Xiaoying; Huang, Shaoyu; Deng, Zhuohui; Zeng, Xin; Yang, Yu; Wu, Zhongdao; Chen, Yue; Zhou, Yibiao; Jiang, Qingwu

2018-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease and is endemic in many tropical and subtropical countries. Biomphalaria straminea, an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni, is native to the southeastern part of South America and has established in other regions of South America, Central America and southern China during the last decades. S. mansoni is endemic in Africa, the Middle East, South America and the Caribbean. Knowledge of the potential global distribution of this snail is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, disease prevention and control. Methods and findings A comprehensive database of cross-continental occurrence for B. straminea was compiled to construct ecological models. We used several approaches to investigate the distribution of B. straminea, including direct comparison of climatic conditions, principal component analysis and niche overlap analyses to detect niche shifts. We also investigated the impacts of bioclimatic and human factors, and then used the bioclimatic and footprint layers to predict the potential distribution of B. straminea at global scale. We detected niche shifts accompanying the invasions of B. straminea in the Americas and China. The introduced populations had enlarged its habitats to subtropical regions where annual mean temperature is relatively low. Annual mean temperature, isothermality and temperature seasonality were identified as most important climatic features for the occurrence of B. straminea. Additionally, human factors improved the model prediction (P<0.001). Our model showed that under current climate conditions the snail should mostly be confined to the tropic and subtropic regions, including South America, Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Conclusions Our results confirmed that niche shifts took place in the invasions of B. straminea, in which bioclimatic and human factors played an important role. Our model predicted the global distribution of B. straminea based on habitat suitability, which would help for prioritizing monitoring and management efforts for B. straminea control in the context of ongoing climate change and human disturbances. PMID:29813073

Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

2012-04-01

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato, maize for silage) could be gradually shifted as far as 500 km from the south northwards (about 50-70 km per decade) and new crops (maize for grain, apricot, grape, gourds) may be introduced in the very south depending on winter conditions and would necessitate irrigation in a drier 2080 climate; The environment for the Siberian moth may considerably shrink in the future leaving suitable habitats only in highlands of mountains and the north of Eurasia. The moth habitats also depend on migration rates of tree species Larix spp., Abies sibirica, and Pinus sibirica being main food resources. Siberian moth may not be considered as a threat in climates with mild winter because larvae require continuos continental type winters. Needle-cast of Pinus sylvestris caused by Lophodermium pinastri Chev. was found to be strongly related to precipation including snow depth. In a predicted dryer climate, it would shift northwards followed sufficient water.

CSI feedback-based CS for underwater acoustic adaptive modulation OFDM system with channel prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuai, Xiao-yan; Sun, Hai-xin; Qi, Jie; Cheng, En; Xu, Xiao-ka; Guo, Yu-hui; Chen, You-gan

2014-06-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of adaptive modulation (AM) orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system in underwater acoustic (UWA) communications. The aim is to solve the problem of large feedback overhead for channel state information (CSI) in every subcarrier. A novel CSI feedback scheme is proposed based on the theory of compressed sensing (CS). We propose a feedback from the receiver that only feedback the sparse channel parameters. Additionally, prediction of the channel state is proposed every several symbols to realize the AM in practice. We describe a linear channel prediction algorithm which is used in adaptive transmission. This system has been tested in the real underwater acoustic channel. The linear channel prediction makes the AM transmission techniques more feasible for acoustic channel communications. The simulation and experiment show that significant improvements can be obtained both in bit error rate (BER) and throughput in the AM scheme compared with the fixed Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK) modulation scheme. Moreover, the performance with standard CS outperforms the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) method.

Neuroimaging-based biomarkers in psychiatry: clinical opportunities of a paradigm shift.

PubMed

Fu, Cynthia H Y; Costafreda, Sergi G

2013-09-01

Neuroimaging research has substantiated the functional and structural abnormalities underlying psychiatric disorders but has, thus far, failed to have a significant impact on clinical practice. Recently, neuroimaging-based diagnoses and clinical predictions derived from machine learning analysis have shown significant potential for clinical translation. This review introduces the key concepts of this approach, including how the multivariate integration of patterns of brain abnormalities is a crucial component. We survey recent findings that have potential application for diagnosis, in particular early and differential diagnoses in Alzheimer disease and schizophrenia, and the prediction of clinical response to treatment in depression. We discuss the specific clinical opportunities and the challenges for developing biomarkers for psychiatry in the absence of a diagnostic gold standard. We propose that longitudinal outcomes, such as early diagnosis and prediction of treatment response, offer definite opportunities for progress. We propose that efforts should be directed toward clinically challenging predictions in which neuroimaging may have added value, compared with the existing standard assessment. We conclude that diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers will be developed through the joint application of expert psychiatric knowledge in addition to advanced methods of analysis.

LBSizeCleav: improved support vector machine (SVM)-based prediction of Dicer cleavage sites using loop/bulge length.

PubMed

Bao, Yu; Hayashida, Morihiro; Akutsu, Tatsuya

2016-11-25

Dicer is necessary for the process of mature microRNA (miRNA) formation because the Dicer enzyme cleaves pre-miRNA correctly to generate miRNA with correct seed regions. Nonetheless, the mechanism underlying the selection of a Dicer cleavage site is still not fully understood. To date, several studies have been conducted to solve this problem, for example, a recent discovery indicates that the loop/bulge structure plays a central role in the selection of Dicer cleavage sites. In accordance with this breakthrough, a support vector machine (SVM)-based method called PHDCleav was developed to predict Dicer cleavage sites which outperforms other methods based on random forest and naive Bayes. PHDCleav, however, tests only whether a position in the shift window belongs to a loop/bulge structure. In this paper, we used the length of loop/bulge structures (in addition to their presence or absence) to develop an improved method, LBSizeCleav, for predicting Dicer cleavage sites. To evaluate our method, we used 810 empirically validated sequences of human pre-miRNAs and performed fivefold cross-validation. In both 5p and 3p arms of pre-miRNAs, LBSizeCleav showed greater prediction accuracy than PHDCleav did. This result suggests that the length of loop/bulge structures is useful for prediction of Dicer cleavage sites. We developed a novel algorithm for feature space mapping based on the length of a loop/bulge for predicting Dicer cleavage sites. The better performance of our method indicates the usefulness of the length of loop/bulge structures for such predictions.

The effect of prism on preferred retinal locus.

PubMed

Lewerenz, David; Blanco, Daniel; Ratzlaff, Chase; Zodrow, Ashley

2018-03-01

Whether prism, especially base-up prism, affects the area of the retina used for fixation in a patient with central scotoma has been a controversial subject for 35 years. Our pilot study employed microperimetry to evaluate the effect of base-up prism on the fixation locus, or preferred retinal locus (PRL), in subjects with central scotoma. We used a microperimeter to assess the PRL in 13 visually impaired subjects with central scotoma under four conditions: no lens, a lens with no prism (control lens), 6 Δ base-up, and 10 Δ base-up. The PRL was measured in degrees in horizontal and vertical co-ordinates from the centre of the optic disc using graphical analysis. The PRL with the control lens was not significantly different from the PRL with no lens. The preferred retinal loci with the two powers of prism were compared to the control lens and showed a superior shift in 22 of 26 cases (84.6 per cent). The amount of movement was significantly different from zero (p = 0.001 for 6 Δ and p = 0.004 for 10 Δ ). The vertical movement with the 10 Δ prism (1.73 ± 1.73 degrees) was not significantly greater (p = 0.562) than with the 6 Δ prism (1.37 ± 1.08 degrees). The shift was significantly less than the prism powers used (p < 0.001), and the amount of vertical relocation was not significantly different from the amount of horizontal movement. In our study, base-up prism appears to shift the PRL in the direction of the prism base most of the time, but our findings do not support the use of prism as a way of predictably relocating the PRL. More study is indicated to evaluate whether such a small shift is clinically or functionally significant. © 2017 Optometry Australia.

Assessing the ability of plants to respond to climatic change through distribution shifts

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz

1996-01-01

Predictions of future global warming suggest northward shifts of up to 800 km in the equilibrium distributions of plant species. Historical data estimating the maximum rate of tree distribution shifts (migration) suggest that most species will not keep pace with future rates of human-induced climatic change. Previous plant migrations have occurred at rates typically...

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

Treesearch

Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Dominik Cullmann

2010-01-01

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalized linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Wurttemberg...

Multi-Stage Target Tracking with Drift Correction and Position Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Ren, Keyan; Hou, Yibin

2018-04-01

Most existing tracking methods are hard to combine accuracy and performance, and do not consider the shift between clarity and blur that often occurs. In this paper, we propound a multi-stage tracking framework with two particular modules: position prediction and corrective measure. We conduct tracking based on correlation filter with a corrective measure module to increase both performance and accuracy. Specifically, a convolutional network is used for solving the blur problem in realistic scene, training methodology that training dataset with blur images generated by the three blur algorithms. Then, we propose a position prediction module to reduce the computation cost and make tracker more capable of fast motion. Experimental result shows that our tracking method is more robust compared to others and more accurate on the benchmark sequences.

The viscoelastic behavior of a composite in a thermal environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.; Griffith, W. I.; Yeow, Y. T.

1979-01-01

A proposed method for the accelerated predictions of modulus and life times for time dependent polymer matrix composite laminates is presented. The method, based on the time temperature superposition principle and lamination theory, is described in detail. Unidirectional reciprocal of compliance master curves and the shift functions needed are presented and discussed. Master curves for arbitrarily oriented unidirectional laminates are predicted and compared with experimantal results obtained from master curves generated from 15 minute tests and with 25 hour tests. Good agreement is shown. Predicted 30 deg and 60 deg unidirectional strength master curves are presented and compared to results of creep rupture tests. Reasonable agreement is demonstrated. In addition, creep rupture results for a (90 deg + or - 60 deg/90 deg) sub 2s laminate are presented.

Relative Humidity Has Uneven Effects on Shifts From Snow to Rain Over the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.; Rajagopal, S.; Crews, J. B.; Winchell, T.; Schumer, R.

2017-10-01

Predicting the phase of precipitation is fundamental to water supply and hazard forecasting. Phase prediction methods (PPMs) are used to predict snow fraction, or the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation. Common temperature-based regression (Dai method) and threshold at freezing (0°C) PPMs had comparable accuracy to a humidity-based PPM (TRH method) using 6 and 24 h observations. Using a daily climate data set from 1980 to 2015, the TRH method estimates 14% and 6% greater precipitation-weighted snow fraction than the 0°C and Dai methods, respectively. The TRH method predicts four times less area with declining snow fraction than the Dai method (2.1% and 8.1% of the study domain, respectively) from 1980 to 2015, with the largest differences in the Cascade and Sierra Nevada mountains and southwestern U.S. Future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 projections suggest warming temperatures of 4.2°C and declining relative humidity of 1% over the 21st century. The TRH method predicts a smaller reduction in snow fraction than temperature-only PPMs by 2100, consistent with lower humidity buffering declines in snow fraction caused by regional warming.

Detecting failure of climate predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2016-01-01

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

Modeling the Endogenous Sunlight Inactivation Rates of Laboratory Strain and Wastewater E. coli and Enterococci Using Biological Weighting Functions.

PubMed

Silverman, Andrea I; Nelson, Kara L

2016-11-15

Models that predict sunlight inactivation rates of bacteria are valuable tools for predicting the fate of pathogens in recreational waters and designing natural wastewater treatment systems to meet disinfection goals. We developed biological weighting function (BWF)-based numerical models to estimate the endogenous sunlight inactivation rates of E. coli and enterococci. BWF-based models allow the prediction of inactivation rates under a range of environmental conditions that shift the magnitude or spectral distribution of sunlight irradiance (e.g., different times, latitudes, water absorbances, depth). Separate models were developed for laboratory strain bacteria cultured in the laboratory and indigenous organisms concentrated directly from wastewater. Wastewater bacteria were found to be 5-7 times less susceptible to full-spectrum simulated sunlight than the laboratory bacteria, highlighting the importance of conducting experiments with bacteria sourced directly from wastewater. The inactivation rate models fit experimental data well and were successful in predicting the inactivation rates of wastewater E. coli and enterococci measured in clear marine water by researchers from a different laboratory. Additional research is recommended to develop strategies to account for the effects of elevated water pH on predicted inactivation rates.

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.

PubMed

Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M

2017-06-01

Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Hydrogen bonding interaction of small acetaldehyde clusters studied with core-electron excitation spectroscopy in the oxygen K-edge region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabayashi, K.; Chohda, M.; Yamanaka, T.; Tsutsumi, Y.; Takahashi, O.; Yoshida, H.; Taniguchi, M.

2010-06-01

In order to examine inner-shell electron excitation spectra of molecular clusters with strong multipole interactions, excitation spectra and time-of-flight (TOF) fragment-mass spectra of small acetaldehyde (AA) clusters have been studied under the beam conditions. The TOF spectra at the oxygen K-edge region showed an intense growth of the protonated clusters, MnH+ (M=CH3CHO) in the cluster beams. "cluster-specific" excitation spectra could be generated by monitoring partial-ion-yields of the protonated clusters. The most intense band of O1s→π*CO was found to shift to a higher energy by 0.15 eV relative to the monomer band upon clusterization. X-ray absorption spectra (XAS) were also calculated for the representative dimer configurations using a computer modelling program based on the density functional theory. The XAS prediction for the most stable (non-planar) configuration was found to give a close comparison with the cluster-band shift observed. The band shift was interpreted as being due to the HOMO-LUMO interaction within the complex where a contribution of vibrationally blue-shifting hydrogen bonding could be identified.

Validating and Extending the Three Process Model of Alertness in Airline Operations

PubMed Central

Ingre, Michael; Van Leeuwen, Wessel; Klemets, Tomas; Ullvetter, Christer; Hough, Stephen; Kecklund, Göran; Karlsson, David; Åkerstedt, Torbjörn

2014-01-01

Sleepiness and fatigue are important risk factors in the transport sector and bio-mathematical sleepiness, sleep and fatigue modeling is increasingly becoming a valuable tool for assessing safety of work schedules and rosters in Fatigue Risk Management Systems (FRMS). The present study sought to validate the inner workings of one such model, Three Process Model (TPM), on aircrews and extend the model with functions to model jetlag and to directly assess the risk of any sleepiness level in any shift schedule or roster with and without knowledge of sleep timings. We collected sleep and sleepiness data from 136 aircrews in a real life situation by means of an application running on a handheld touch screen computer device (iPhone, iPod or iPad) and used the TPM to predict sleepiness with varying level of complexity of model equations and data. The results based on multilevel linear and non-linear mixed effects models showed that the TPM predictions correlated with observed ratings of sleepiness, but explorative analyses suggest that the default model can be improved and reduced to include only two-processes (S+C), with adjusted phases of the circadian process based on a single question of circadian type. We also extended the model with a function to model jetlag acclimatization and with estimates of individual differences including reference limits accounting for 50%, 75% and 90% of the population as well as functions for predicting the probability of any level of sleepiness for ecological assessment of absolute and relative risk of sleepiness in shift systems for safety applications. PMID:25329575

Building the Army: A Strategic Review of a Complex Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

is more than a true chameleon that slightly adapts its characteristics to the given case.”2 One cannot predict the shifting colors/characteristics...Strategy (NMS) of the United States of America calling for a flexible, agile, and adaptive Joint Force capable of full spectrum operations that...or may not be remedied, one can safely certify TAA as a robust and proven process based solely on the adaptable and tailorable Army that exists

Time delay generation at high frequency using SOA based slow and fast light.

PubMed

Berger, Perrine; Bourderionnet, Jérôme; Bretenaker, Fabien; Dolfi, Daniel; Alouini, Mehdi

2011-10-24

We show how Up-converted Coherent Population Oscillations (UpCPO) enable to get rid of the intrinsic limitation of the carrier lifetime, leading to the generation of time delays at any high frequencies in a single SOA device. The linear dependence of the RF phase shift with respect to the RF frequency is theoretically predicted and experimentally evidenced at 16 and 35 GHz. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Frequency shifts of an electric-dipole resonance near a conducting surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, W. R.; Hall, D. G.

1984-01-01

The resonance frequency of an electric dipole placed near a conducting surface is shifted by the dipole-surface interaction. The observation and measurement of these shifts at optical frequencies is reported for an experimental system that consists of a metal-island film spaced a distance d from a continuous Ag film. The dependence of the shift in the frequency of the island resonance on d shows good agreement with that predicted by a classical theory of the dipole-surface interaction.

Phase Shifting Capacity of the Circadian Pacemaker Determined by the SCN Neuronal Network Organization

PubMed Central

vanderLeest, Henk Tjebbe; Rohling, Jos H. T.; Michel, Stephan; Meijer, Johanna H.

2009-01-01

Background In mammals, a major circadian pacemaker that drives daily rhythms is located in the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN), at the base of the hypothalamus. The SCN receive direct light input via the retino-hypothalamic tract. Light during the early night induces phase delays of circadian rhythms while during the late night it leads to phase advances. The effects of light on the circadian system are strongly dependent on the photoperiod to which animals are exposed. An explanation for this phenomenon is currently lacking. Methodology and Principal Findings We recorded running wheel activity in C57 mice and observed large amplitude phase shifts in short photoperiods and small shifts in long photoperiods. We investigated whether these different light responses under short and long days are expressed within the SCN by electrophysiological recordings of electrical impulse frequency in SCN slices. Application of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) induced sustained increments in electrical activity that were not significantly different in the slices from long and short photoperiods. These responses led to large phase shifts in slices from short days and small phase shifts in slices from long days. An analysis of neuronal subpopulation activity revealed that in short days the amplitude of the rhythm was larger than in long days. Conclusions The data indicate that the photoperiodic dependent phase responses are intrinsic to the SCN. In contrast to earlier predictions from limit cycle theory, we observed large phase shifting responses in high amplitude rhythms in slices from short days, and small shifts in low amplitude rhythms in slices from long days. We conclude that the photoperiodic dependent phase responses are determined by the SCN and propose that synchronization among SCN neurons enhances the phase shifting capacity of the circadian system. PMID:19305510

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

PubMed Central

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

PubMed

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Shafer, S.L.; White, D.; Kareiva, P.; Maurer, E.P.; Blaustein, A.R.; Bartlein, P.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Random waves in the brain: Symmetries and defect generation in the visual cortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnabel, M.; Kaschube, M.; Löwel, S.; Wolf, F.

2007-06-01

How orientation maps in the visual cortex of the brain develop is a matter of long standing debate. Experimental and theoretical evidence suggests that their development represents an activity-dependent self-organization process. Theoretical analysis [1] exploring this hypothesis predicted that maps at an early developmental stage are realizations of Gaussian random fields exhibiting a rigorous lower bound for their densities of topological defects, called pinwheels. As a consequence, lower pinwheel densities, if observed in adult animals, are predicted to develop through the motion and annihilation of pinwheel pairs. Despite of being valid for a large class of developmental models this result depends on the symmetries of the models and thus of the predicted random field ensembles. In [1] invariance of the orientation map's statistical properties under independent space rotations and orientation shifts was assumed. However, full rotation symmetry appears to be broken by interactions of cortical neurons, e.g. selective couplings between groups of neurons with collinear orientation preferences [2]. A recently proposed new symmetry, called shift-twist symmetry [3], stating that spatial rotations have to occur together with orientation shifts in order to be an appropriate symmetry transformation, is more consistent with this organization. Here we generalize our random field approach to this important symmetry class. We propose a new class of shift-twist symmetric Gaussian random fields and derive the general correlation functions of this ensemble. It turns out that despite strong effects of the shift-twist symmetry on the structure of the correlation functions and on the map layout the lower bound on the pinwheel densities remains unaffected, predicting pinwheel annihilation in systems with low pinwheel densities.

Persistent ecological shifts in marine molluscan assemblages across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

PubMed

Aberhan, Martin; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2015-06-09

Contemporary biodiversity loss and population declines threaten to push the biosphere toward a tipping point with irreversible effects on ecosystem composition and function. As a potential example of a global-scale regime shift in the geological past, we assessed ecological changes across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction based on molluscan assemblages at four well-studied sites. By contrasting preextinction and postextinction rank abundance and numerical abundance in 19 molluscan modes of life--each defined as a unique combination of mobility level, feeding mode, and position relative to the substrate--we find distinct shifts in ecospace utilization, which significantly exceed predictions from null models. The magnitude of change in functional traits relative to normal temporal fluctuations at far-flung sites indicates that molluscan assemblages shifted to differently structured systems and faunal response was global. The strengths of temporal ecological shifts, however, are mostly within the range of preextinction site-to-site variability, demonstrating that local ecological turnover was similar to geographic variation over a broad latitudinal range. In conjunction with varied site-specific temporal patterns of individual modes of life, these spatial and temporal heterogeneities argue against a concerted phase shift of molluscan assemblages from one well-defined regime to another. At a broader ecological level, by contrast, congruent tendencies emerge and suggest deterministic processes. These patterns comprise the well-known increase of deposit-feeding mollusks in postextinction assemblages and increases in predators and predator-resistant modes of life, i.e., those characterized by elevated mobility and infaunal life habits.

Applications of statistical and atomic physics to the spectral line broadening and stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volodko, Dmitriy

The purpose of this investigation is the application of time correlation function methodology on the theoretical research of the shift of hydrogen and hydrogen-like spectral lines due to electrons and ions interaction with the spectral line emitters-dipole ionic-electronic shift (DIES) and the describing a behavior of stock-market in terms of a simple physical model simulation which obeys Levy statistical distribution---the same as that of the real stock-market index. Using Generalized Theory of Stark broadening of electrons in plasma we discovered a new source of the shift of hydrogen and hydrogen-like spectral lines that we called a dipole ionic-electronic shift (DIES). This shift results from the indirect coupling of electron and ion microfields in plasmas which is facilitated by the radiating atom/ion. We have shown that the DIES, unlike all previously known shifts, is highly nonlinear and has a different sign for different ranges of plasma parameters. The most favorable conditions for observing the DIES correspond to plasmas of high densities, but of relatively low temperature. For the Balmer-alpha line of hydrogen with the most favorable observational conditions Ne > 1018 cm-3, T < 2 eV, the DIES has been already confirmed experimentally. Based on the study of the time correlations and of the probability distribution of fluctuations in the stock market, we developed a relatively simple physical model, which simulates the Dow Jones Industrials index and makes short-term (a couple of days) predictions of its trend.

Experimental verification of the spectral shift between near- and far-field peak intensities of plasmonic infrared nanoantennas.

PubMed

Alonso-González, P; Albella, P; Neubrech, F; Huck, C; Chen, J; Golmar, F; Casanova, F; Hueso, L E; Pucci, A; Aizpurua, J; Hillenbrand, R

2013-05-17

Theory predicts a distinct spectral shift between the near- and far-field optical response of plasmonic antennas. Here we combine near-field optical microscopy and far-field spectroscopy of individual infrared-resonant nanoantennas to verify experimentally this spectral shift. Numerical calculations corroborate our experimental results. We furthermore discuss the implications of this effect in surface-enhanced infrared spectroscopy.

Ecological and life-history traits explain recent boundary shifts in elevation and latitude of western North American songbirds

Treesearch

Sonya K. Auer; David I. King

2014-01-01

Species are expected to move uphill or poleward in response to climate change, yet their distributions show idiosyncratic responses; many species are moving in the predicted direction, but others are not shifting at all or are shifting downhill or towards the equator. Fundamental questions remain about the causes of interspecific variation in range responses and...

Correlation of MFOLD-predicted DNA secondary structures with separation patterns obtained by capillary electrophoresis single-strand conformation polymorphism (CE-SSCP) analysis.

PubMed

Glavac, Damjan; Potocnik, Uros; Podpecnik, Darja; Zizek, Teofil; Smerkolj, Sava; Ravnik-Glavac, Metka

2002-04-01

We have studied 57 different mutations within three beta-globin gene promoter fragments with sizes 52 bp, 77 bp, and 193 bp by fluorescent capillary electrophoresis CE-SSCP analysis. For each mutation and wild type, energetically most-favorable predicted secondary structures were calculated for sense and antisense strands using the MFOLD DNA-folding algorithm in order to investigate if any correlation exists between predicted DNA structures and actual CE migration time shifts. The overall CE-SSCP detection rate was 100% for all mutations in three studied DNA fragments. For shorter 52 bp and 77 bp DNA fragments we obtained a positive correlation between the migration time shifts and difference in free energy values of predicted secondary structures at all temperatures. For longer 193 bp beta-globin gene fragments with 46 mutations MFOLD predicted different secondary structures for 89% of mutated strands at 25 degrees C and 40 degrees C. However, the magnitude of the mobility shifts did not necessarily correlate with their secondary structures and free energy values except for the sense strand at 40 degrees C where this correlation was statistically significant (r = 0.312, p = 0.033). Results of this study provided more direct insight into the mechanism of CE-SSCP and showed that MFOLD prediction could be helpful in making decisions about the running temperatures and in prediction of CE-SSCP data patterns, especially for shorter (50-100 bp) DNA fragments. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Cutoff size need not strongly influence molecular dynamics results for solvated polypeptides.

PubMed

Beck, David A C; Armen, Roger S; Daggett, Valerie

2005-01-18

The correct treatment of van der Waals and electrostatic nonbonded interactions in molecular force fields is essential for performing realistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of solvated polypeptides. The most computationally tractable treatment of nonbonded interactions in MD utilizes a spherical distance cutoff (typically, 8-12 A) to reduce the number of pairwise interactions. In this work, we assess three spherical atom-based cutoff approaches for use with all-atom explicit solvent MD: abrupt truncation, a CHARMM-style electrostatic shift truncation, and our own force-shifted truncation. The chosen system for this study is an end-capped 17-residue alanine-based alpha-helical peptide, selected because of its use in previous computational and experimental studies. We compare the time-averaged helical content calculated from these MD trajectories with experiment. We also examine the effect of varying the cutoff treatment and distance on energy conservation. We find that the abrupt truncation approach is pathological in its inability to conserve energy. The CHARMM-style shift truncation performs quite well but suffers from energetic instability. On the other hand, the force-shifted spherical cutoff method conserves energy, correctly predicts the experimental helical content, and shows convergence in simulation statistics as the cutoff is increased. This work demonstrates that by using proper and rigorous techniques, it is possible to correctly model polypeptide dynamics in solution with a spherical cutoff. The inherent computational advantage of spherical cutoffs over Ewald summation (and related) techniques is essential in accessing longer MD time scales.

Crystal structures, spectroscopic and theoretical study of novel Schiff bases of 2-(methylthiomethyl)anilines.

PubMed

Olalekan, Temitope E; Adejoro, Isaiah A; VanBrecht, Bernardus; Watkins, Gareth M

2015-03-15

New Schiff bases derived from p-methoxysalicylaldehyde and 2-(methylthiomethyl)anilines (substituted with methyl, methoxy, nitro) were synthesized and characterized by elemental analyses, FT-IR, NMR, electronic spectra and quantum chemical calculations. X-ray crystallography of two compounds showed the solid structures are stabilized by intramolecular and intermolecular H-bonds. The effect of OH⋯N interaction between the phenolic hydrogen and imine nitrogen on the proton and carbon NMR shifts, and the role of CH⋯O and CH⋯S contacts are discussed. The bond lengths and angles, (1)H and (13)C NMR data, E(LUMO-HOMO), dipole moments and polarizability of the compounds were predicted by density functional theory, DFT (B3LYP/6-31G∗∗) method. The experimental geometric parameters and the NMR shifts were compared with the calculated values, which gave good correlations. The electronic effects of aryl ring substituents (methyl, methoxy and nitro) on the properties of the resulting compounds, such as the color, NMR shifts, electronic spectra and the calculated energy band gaps, dipole moments and polarizability are discussed. Increase in electron density shifted the phenolic proton resonance to lower fields. The methoxy-substituted compound has a small dipole moment and subsequent large polarizability value. Highest polarity was indicated by the nitro compound which also showed high polarizability due to its larger size. The energy gaps obtained from E(LUMO-HOMO) calculations suggest these compounds may have applications as organic semiconducting materials. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correspondence between ion-cluster and bulk thermodynamics: on the validity of the cluster pair approximation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vlcek, Lukas; Chialvo, Ariel; Simonson, J Michael

2013-01-01

Molecular models and experimental estimates based on the cluster pair approximation (CPA) provide inconsistent predictions of absolute single-ion hydration properties. To understand the origin of this discrepancy we used molecular simulations to study the transition between hydration of alkali metal and halide ions in small aqueous clusters and bulk water. The results demonstrate that the assumptions underlying the CPA are not generally valid as a result of a significant shift in the ion hydration free energies (~15 kJ/mol) and enthalpies (~47 kJ/mol) in the intermediate range of cluster sizes. When this effect is accounted for, the systematic differences between modelsmore » and experimental predictions disappear, and the value of absolute proton hydration enthalpy based on the CPA gets in closer agreement with other estimates.« less

Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades.

PubMed

Vasilakopoulos, Paraskevas; Marshall, C Tara

2015-05-01

Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio-ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949-2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data-rich complex natural systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The slightly-enriched spectral shift control reactor. Final report, September 30, 1988--September 30, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, W.R.; Lee, J.C.; Larsen, E.W.

1991-11-01

An advanced converter reactor design utilizing mechanical spectral shift control rods in a conventional pressurized water reactor configuration is under investigation. The design is based on the principle that a harder spectrum during the early part of the fuel cycle will result in large neutron captures in fertile {sup 238}U, which can then be burned in situ in a softer spectrum later in the cycle. Preliminary design calculations performed during FY 89 showed that the slightly-enriched spectral shift reactor design offers the benefit of substantially increased fuel resource utilization with the proven safety characteristics of the pressurized water reactor technologymore » retained. Optimization of the fuel design and development of fuel management strategies were carried out in FY 90, along with effort to develop and validate neutronic methodology for tight-lattice configurations with hard spectra. During FY 91, the final year of the grant, the final Slightly-Enriched Spectral Shift Reactor (SESSR) design was determined, and reference design analyses were performed for the assemblies as well as the global core configuration, both at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and with depletion. The final SESSR design results in approximately a 20% increase in the utilization of uranium resources, based on equilibrium fuel cycle analyses. Acceptable pin power peaking is obtained with the final core design, with assembly peaking factors equal to less than 1.04 for spectral shift control rods both inserted and withdrawn, and global peaking factors at BOC predicted to be 1.4. In addition, a negative Moderation Temperature Coefficient (MTC) is maintained for BOC, which is difficult to achieve with conventional advanced converter designs based on a closed fuel cycle. The SESSR design avoids the need for burnable poison absorber, although they could be added if desired to increase the cycle length while maintaining a negative MTC.« less

The slightly-enriched spectral shift control reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, W.R.; Lee, J.C.; Larsen, E.W.

1991-11-01

An advanced converter reactor design utilizing mechanical spectral shift control rods in a conventional pressurized water reactor configuration is under investigation. The design is based on the principle that a harder spectrum during the early part of the fuel cycle will result in large neutron captures in fertile {sup 238}U, which can then be burned in situ in a softer spectrum later in the cycle. Preliminary design calculations performed during FY 89 showed that the slightly-enriched spectral shift reactor design offers the benefit of substantially increased fuel resource utilization with the proven safety characteristics of the pressurized water reactor technologymore » retained. Optimization of the fuel design and development of fuel management strategies were carried out in FY 90, along with effort to develop and validate neutronic methodology for tight-lattice configurations with hard spectra. During FY 91, the final year of the grant, the final Slightly-Enriched Spectral Shift Reactor (SESSR) design was determined, and reference design analyses were performed for the assemblies as well as the global core configuration, both at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and with depletion. The final SESSR design results in approximately a 20% increase in the utilization of uranium resources, based on equilibrium fuel cycle analyses. Acceptable pin power peaking is obtained with the final core design, with assembly peaking factors equal to less than 1.04 for spectral shift control rods both inserted and withdrawn, and global peaking factors at BOC predicted to be 1.4. In addition, a negative Moderation Temperature Coefficient (MTC) is maintained for BOC, which is difficult to achieve with conventional advanced converter designs based on a closed fuel cycle. The SESSR design avoids the need for burnable poison absorber, although they could be added if desired to increase the cycle length while maintaining a negative MTC.« less

Predicting Molecular Crystal Properties from First Principles: Finite-Temperature Thermochemistry to NMR Crystallography.

PubMed

Beran, Gregory J O; Hartman, Joshua D; Heit, Yonaton N

2016-11-15

Molecular crystals occur widely in pharmaceuticals, foods, explosives, organic semiconductors, and many other applications. Thanks to substantial progress in electronic structure modeling of molecular crystals, attention is now shifting from basic crystal structure prediction and lattice energy modeling toward the accurate prediction of experimentally observable properties at finite temperatures and pressures. This Account discusses how fragment-based electronic structure methods can be used to model a variety of experimentally relevant molecular crystal properties. First, it describes the coupling of fragment electronic structure models with quasi-harmonic techniques for modeling the thermal expansion of molecular crystals, and what effects this expansion has on thermochemical and mechanical properties. Excellent agreement with experiment is demonstrated for the molar volume, sublimation enthalpy, entropy, and free energy, and the bulk modulus of phase I carbon dioxide when large basis second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) or coupled cluster theories (CCSD(T)) are used. In addition, physical insight is offered into how neglect of thermal expansion affects these properties. Zero-point vibrational motion leads to an appreciable expansion in the molar volume; in carbon dioxide, it accounts for around 30% of the overall volume expansion between the electronic structure energy minimum and the molar volume at the sublimation point. In addition, because thermal expansion typically weakens the intermolecular interactions, neglecting thermal expansion artificially stabilizes the solid and causes the sublimation enthalpy to be too large at higher temperatures. Thermal expansion also frequently weakens the lower-frequency lattice phonon modes; neglecting thermal expansion causes the entropy of sublimation to be overestimated. Interestingly, the sublimation free energy is less significantly affected by neglecting thermal expansion because the systematic errors in the enthalpy and entropy cancel somewhat. Second, because solid state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) plays an increasingly important role in molecular crystal studies, this Account discusses how fragment methods can be used to achieve higher-accuracy chemical shifts in molecular crystals. Whereas widely used plane wave density functional theory models are largely restricted to generalized gradient approximation (GGA) functionals like PBE in practice, fragment methods allow the routine use of hybrid density functionals with only modest increases in computational cost. In extensive molecular crystal benchmarks, hybrid functionals like PBE0 predict chemical shifts with 20-30% higher accuracy than GGAs, particularly for 1 H, 13 C, and 15 N nuclei. Due to their higher sensitivity to polarization effects, 17 O chemical shifts prove slightly harder to predict with fragment methods. Nevertheless, the fragment model results are still competitive with those from GIPAW. The improved accuracy achievable with fragment approaches and hybrid density functionals increases discrimination between different potential assignments of individual shifts or crystal structures, which is critical in NMR crystallography applications. This higher accuracy and greater discrimination are highlighted in application to the solid state NMR of different acetaminophen and testosterone crystal forms.

Use of 13Cα Chemical-Shifts in Protein Structure Determination

PubMed Central

Vila, Jorge A.; Ripoll, Daniel R.; Scheraga, Harold A.

2008-01-01

A physics-based method, aimed at determining protein structures by using NOE-derived distances together with observed and computed 13C chemical shifts, is proposed. The approach makes use of 13Cα chemical shifts, computed at the density functional level of theory, to obtain torsional constraints for all backbone and side-chain torsional angles without making a priori use of the occupancy of any region of the Ramachandran map by the amino acid residues. The torsional constraints are not fixed but are changed dynamically in each step of the procedure, following an iterative self-consistent approach intended to identify a set of conformations for which the computed 13Cα chemical shifts match the experimental ones. A test is carried out on a 76-amino acid all-α-helical protein, namely the B. Subtilis acyl carrier protein. It is shown that, starting from randomly generated conformations, the final protein models are more accurate than an existing NMR-derived structure model of this protein, in terms of both the agreement between predicted and observed 13Cα chemical shifts and some stereochemical quality indicators, and of similar accuracy as one of the protein models solved at a high level of resolution. The results provide evidence that this methodology can be used not only for structure determination but also for additional protein structure refinement of NMR-derived models deposited in the Protein Data Bank. PMID:17516673

Tracking Extra Tropical Cyclones to Explore how the Jet Stream Shifted During The Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, H.

2016-12-01

The behavior of the jet stream during the last glacial maximum (LGM 21ka) has been the focus of multiple studies but remains highly debated. Proxy data shows that during this time in the United States, the northwest was drier than modern conditions and the southwest was wetter than modern conditions. To explain this there are two competing hypothesis, one which suggests that the jet stream shifted uniformly south and the other which suggests a stronger jet that split shifting both north and south. For this study we used TECA, to reanalyze model out-put, looking at the frequency and patterns of Extra Tropical Cyclones (ETC's), which have been found to be steered by the jet stream. We used the CCSM4 model based on its agreement with proxy data, and compared data from both the LGM and pre-industrial time periods. Initial results show a dramatic shift of ETC's north by about 10º-15º degrees and a decrease in frequency compared to pre-industrial conditions, coupled with a less pronounced southward shift of 5º-10º degrees.This evidence supports the idea that the jet stream split during the LGM. A stronger understanding of jet stream behavior will help to improve future models and prediction capabilities to prepare for hydro-climate change in drought sensitive areas.

Stability assessments on luminescent down-shifting molecules for UV-protection of perovskite solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gheno, Alexandre; Trigaud, Thierry; Bouclé, Johann; Audebert, Pierre; Ratier, Bernard; Vedraine, Sylvain

2018-01-01

In this work the use of a S-tetrazine (NITZ) molecule with down-shifting capability to improve the stability of perovskite solar cells is reported. Indeed perovskite solar cells are known to present a high sensitivity to UV light and one strategy to overcome this issue is to actually supress the UV from the illumination light. The NITZ down-shifting molecule is well suited for this application since it has the particularity to be excited in the near-UV region and to emit into the visible light spectrum, giving the possibility to recycle UV photons for additional current generation. Through current-voltage curves, incident-photon-to-electron conversion efficiency, and photoluminescence spectroscopy characterization we show that NITZ presents an emission quantum yield of 30% which allows to reduce the loss of JSC induced by the use of a conventional UV filter, even if a net gain in photocurrent is not achieved in our case. We also present a simple prediction of the ability of a down-shifting molecule to efficiently perform for a specific active material. Moreover, we finally discuss the possibility to improve using such down-shifting strategy, the performance of some perovskite solar cells based on alternatives electron-transporting layers such as WO3, which are known to alter the active layer performance following UV light absorption.

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

PubMed Central

Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

2013-01-01

The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or “unit” and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:23762521

New perspectives in the PAW/GIPAW approach: J(P-O-Si) coupling constants, antisymmetric parts of shift tensors and NQR predictions.

PubMed

Bonhomme, Christian; Gervais, Christel; Coelho, Cristina; Pourpoint, Frédérique; Azaïs, Thierry; Bonhomme-Coury, Laure; Babonneau, Florence; Jacob, Guy; Ferrari, Maude; Canet, Daniel; Yates, Jonathan R; Pickard, Chris J; Joyce, Siân A; Mauri, Francesco; Massiot, Dominique

2010-12-01

In 2001, Pickard and Mauri implemented the gauge including projected augmented wave (GIPAW) protocol for first-principles calculations of NMR parameters using periodic boundary conditions (chemical shift anisotropy and electric field gradient tensors). In this paper, three potentially interesting perspectives in connection with PAW/GIPAW in solid-state NMR and pure nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) are presented: (i) the calculation of J coupling tensors in inorganic solids; (ii) the calculation of the antisymmetric part of chemical shift tensors and (iii) the prediction of (14)N and (35)Cl pure NQR resonances including dynamics. We believe that these topics should open new insights in the combination of GIPAW, NMR/NQR crystallography, temperature effects and dynamics. Points (i), (ii) and (iii) will be illustrated by selected examples: (i) chemical shift tensors and heteronuclear (2)J(P-O-Si) coupling constants in the case of silicophosphates and calcium phosphates [Si(5)O(PO(4))(6), SiP(2)O(7) polymorphs and α-Ca(PO(3))(2)]; (ii) antisymmetric chemical shift tensors in cyclopropene derivatives, C(3)X(4) (X = H, Cl, F) and (iii) (14)N and (35)Cl NQR predictions in the case of RDX (C(3)H(6)N(6)O(6)), β-HMX (C(4)H(8)N(8)O(8)), α-NTO (C(2)H(2)N(4)O(3)) and AlOPCl(6). RDX, β-HMX and α-NTO are explosive compounds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ARGOS Testbed: Study of Multidisciplinary Challenges of Future Spaceborne Interferometric Arrays

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-09-01

optimized ex- tensively by ZEMAX . One drawback of the cemented dou- blet is that it has bonded glasses, therefore if there is a change of temperature, the...residual aberrations @root mean square ~rms! wavefront errors predicted by ZEMAX #. The final FK51- BaK2 design achieves 271.6 mm chromatic focal shift...of ZEMAX , a complete ARGOS optics layout is constructed based on the optical specifications of a subaperture, pyramidal mirror, and the beam combining

Emission shaping in fluorescent proteins: role of electrostatics and π-stacking.

PubMed

Park, Jae Woo; Rhee, Young Min

2016-02-07

For many decades, simulating the excited state properties of complex systems has been an intriguing but daunting task due to its high computational cost. Here, we apply molecular dynamics based techniques with interpolated potential energy surfaces toward calculating fluorescence spectra of the green fluorescent protein (GFP) and its variants in a statistically meaningful manner. With the GFP, we show that the diverse electrostatic tuning can shape the emission features in many different ways. By computationally modulating the electrostatic interactions between the chromophore phenoxy oxygen and its nearby residues, we demonstrate that we indeed can shift the emission to the blue or to the red side in a predictable manner. We rationalize the shifting effects of individual residues in the GFP based on the responses of both the adiabatic and the diabatic electronic states of the chromophore. We next exhibit that the yellow emitting variant, the Thr203Tyr mutant, generates changes in the electrostatic interactions and an additional π-stacking interaction. These combined effects indeed induce a red shift to emit the fluorescence into the yellow region. With the series of demonstrations, we suggest that our approach can provide sound rationales and useful insights in understanding different responses of various fluorescent complexes, which may be helpful in designing new light emitting proteins and other related systems in future studies.

Quasichemical analysis of the cluster-pair approximation for the thermodynamics of proton hydration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pollard, Travis; Beck, Thomas L.; Department of Physics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio 45221

2014-06-14

A theoretical analysis of the cluster-pair approximation (CPA) is presented based on the quasichemical theory of solutions. The sought single-ion hydration free energy of the proton includes an interfacial potential contribution by definition. It is shown, however, that the CPA involves an extra-thermodynamic assumption that does not guarantee uniform convergence to a bulk free energy value with increasing cluster size. A numerical test of the CPA is performed using the classical polarizable AMOEBA force field and supporting quantum chemical calculations. The enthalpy and free energy differences are computed for the kosmotropic Na{sup +}/F{sup −} ion pair in water clusters ofmore » size n = 5, 25, 105. Additional calculations are performed for the chaotropic Rb{sup +}/I{sup −} ion pair. A small shift in the proton hydration free energy and a larger shift in the hydration enthalpy, relative to the CPA values, are predicted based on the n = 105 simulations. The shifts arise from a combination of sequential hydration and interfacial potential effects. The AMOEBA and quantum chemical results suggest an electrochemical surface potential of water in the range −0.4 to −0.5 V. The physical content of single-ion free energies and implications for ion-water force field development are also discussed.« less

From feedback- to response-based performance monitoring in active and observational learning.

PubMed

Bellebaum, Christian; Colosio, Marco

2014-09-01

Humans can adapt their behavior by learning from the consequences of their own actions or by observing others. Gradual active learning of action-outcome contingencies is accompanied by a shift from feedback- to response-based performance monitoring. This shift is reflected by complementary learning-related changes of two ACC-driven ERP components, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the error-related negativity (ERN), which have both been suggested to signal events "worse than expected," that is, a negative prediction error. Although recent research has identified comparable components for observed behavior and outcomes (observational ERN and FRN), it is as yet unknown, whether these components are similarly modulated by prediction errors and thus also reflect behavioral adaptation. In this study, two groups of 15 participants learned action-outcome contingencies either actively or by observation. In active learners, FRN amplitude for negative feedback decreased and ERN amplitude in response to erroneous actions increased with learning, whereas observational ERN and FRN in observational learners did not exhibit learning-related changes. Learning performance, assessed in test trials without feedback, was comparable between groups, as was the ERN following actively performed errors during test trials. In summary, the results show that action-outcome associations can be learned similarly well actively and by observation. The mechanisms involved appear to differ, with the FRN in active learning reflecting the integration of information about own actions and the accompanying outcomes.

Investigation on the impact of irregular fringe patterns of a single-fiber Mach-Zehnder interferometer on its sensing capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naveen; Kumar, Ashish

2018-07-01

A novel single-mode single-fiber (SMSF) MZI formed by cascading of two non-adiabatic fiber tapers, with stable and repeatable spectrum, has been found to be useful in sensing applications in recent times. A multimode interference based novel simulation approach is proposed to predict the sensing characteristics of SMSF-MZI and is validated with experimental observation. The proposed method includes solving of simultaneous non-homogenous equations for determining the amplitudes of the interfering modes excited in the tapered section of the interferometer. The simulated fringe pattern and the experimental spectral response converge to some important comprehension reported for the first time. A linear shift in output spectral response, of SMSF-MZI, due to change in optical path length induced by temperature/strain etc., is likely to be characterized by three modes interference occurring in the interference region of the interferometer. Whereas if the spectral shift starts saturating at moderately higher temperature/strain, then the formation of interference fringes are possibly governed by two modes interference. Further, it was also explained that a SMSF-MZI with variable fringe widths in its spectral pattern exhibits higher sensitivity than that of the SMSF-MZI having wavelength spectrum with uniform free spectral range. These findings are useful in selecting and predicting the sensitivity of a given SMSF-MZI, based on its spectrum, for sensing applications.

Terminal base pairs of oligodeoxynucleotides: imino proton exchange and fraying.

PubMed

Nonin, S; Leroy, J L; Guéron, M

1995-08-22

We have estimated the dissociation constant of the terminal base pairs of the B-DNA duplexes formed by 5'-d(CGCGATCGCG) and 5'-d(TAGCGCTA) by two methods, one based on the change in imino proton chemical shift with temperature and the other on the apparent pK shift of the imino proton, as monitored by the change in chemical shift of aromatic protons. These methods do not rely on imino proton exchange, whose rate was also measured. (1) The effect of ammonia on the imino proton exchange rate of the terminal pair of the 5'-d(CGCGATCGCG) duplex is 67 times less than on the isolated nucleoside. This provides an upper limit on the exchange rate from the closed pair. In fact, the effect is just as predicted from the dissociation constant, assuming that there is no exchange at all from the closed pair and that, as has been argued previously, external catalysts act on the open state as they do on the isolated nucleoside. The inhibition of catalyzed proton exchange in the closed pair, despite exposure of one face of the pair to solvent, is a new feature of the exchange process. It will allow determination of the dissociation constant of terminal pairs from the exchange rate. (2) Intrinsic catalysis of proton exchange is less efficient for the terminal pair than for an internal one. A possible explanation is that proton transfer across the water bridge responsible for intrinsic catalysis is slower, as expected if the open-state separation of the bases is larger in a terminal pair. This observation may lead to a direct method for the study of fraying. (3) At 0 degrees C, the dissociation constant of the second pair of the 5'-d(CGCGATCGCG) duplex is close to the square of the constant for the terminal pair, as predicted from a simple model of fraying. The enthalpy and entropy of opening of the terminal pairs may be compared with those of nearest neighbor interactions derived from calorimetry [Breslauer, K. J., et al. (1986) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 83, 3746-3750].

[Modelling the impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus].

PubMed

Bonmarin, I; Santa-Olalla, P; Lévy-Bruhl, D

2008-10-01

The soon to come the availability of a combined MMR-varicella vaccine has re-stimulated the debate around universal infant vaccination against varicella. In France, the incidence of varicella is estimated at about 700,000 cases per year, with approximately 3500 hospitalisations and 15-25 deaths, the latter mainly occurring in those over 15years. Vaccination would certainly decrease the overall incidence of the disease but concerns about vaccination leading to a shift in the average age at infection followed by an increase in incidence of severe cases and congenital varicella, still remain. In order to provide support for decision-making, a dynamic mathematical model of varicella virus transmission was used to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies and coverages on the epidemiology of varicella and zoster. A deterministic realistic age-structured model was adapted to the French situation. Epidemiological parameters were estimated from literature or surveillance data. Various vaccine coverages and vaccination strategies were investigated. A sensitivity analysis of varicella incidence predictions was performed to test the impact of changes in the vaccine parameters and age-specific mixing patterns. The model confirms that the overall incidence and morbidity of varicella would likely be reduced by mass vaccination of 12-month-old children. Whatever the coverage and the vaccine strategy, the vaccination will cause a shift in age distribution with, for vaccination coverage up to at least 80% in the base-case analysis, an increased morbidity among adults and pregnant women. However, the total number of deaths and hospitalisations from varicella is predicted to remain below that expected without vaccination. The model is very sensitive to the matrix of contacts used and to the parameters describing vaccine effectiveness. Zoster incidence will increase over a number of decades followed by a decline to below prevaccination levels. Mass varicella vaccination, in France, will result in an overall reduction of varicella incidence but will cause a shift in age distribution with an increase in adult cases. Due to the uncertainties in key parameters values, the exact magnitude of this shift is difficult to assess.

Color Shift Failure Prediction for Phosphor-Converted White LEDs by Modeling Features of Spectral Power Distribution with a Nonlinear Filter Approach

PubMed Central

Mohamed, Moumouni Guero; Fan, Xuejun; Zhang, Guoqi; Pecht, Michael

2017-01-01

With the expanding application of light-emitting diodes (LEDs), the color quality of white LEDs has attracted much attention in several color-sensitive application fields, such as museum lighting, healthcare lighting and displays. Reliability concerns for white LEDs are changing from the luminous efficiency to color quality. However, most of the current available research on the reliability of LEDs is still focused on luminous flux depreciation rather than color shift failure. The spectral power distribution (SPD), defined as the radiant power distribution emitted by a light source at a range of visible wavelength, contains the most fundamental luminescence mechanisms of a light source. SPD is used as the quantitative inference of an LED’s optical characteristics, including color coordinates that are widely used to represent the color shift process. Thus, to model the color shift failure of white LEDs during aging, this paper first extracts the features of an SPD, representing the characteristics of blue LED chips and phosphors, by multi-peak curve-fitting and modeling them with statistical functions. Then, because the shift processes of extracted features in aged LEDs are always nonlinear, a nonlinear state-space model is then developed to predict the color shift failure time within a self-adaptive particle filter framework. The results show that: (1) the failure mechanisms of LEDs can be identified by analyzing the extracted features of SPD with statistical curve-fitting and (2) the developed method can dynamically and accurately predict the color coordinates, correlated color temperatures (CCTs), and color rendering indexes (CRIs) of phosphor-converted (pc)-white LEDs, and also can estimate the residual color life. PMID:28773176

Color Shift Failure Prediction for Phosphor-Converted White LEDs by Modeling Features of Spectral Power Distribution with a Nonlinear Filter Approach.

PubMed

Fan, Jiajie; Mohamed, Moumouni Guero; Qian, Cheng; Fan, Xuejun; Zhang, Guoqi; Pecht, Michael

2017-07-18

With the expanding application of light-emitting diodes (LEDs), the color quality of white LEDs has attracted much attention in several color-sensitive application fields, such as museum lighting, healthcare lighting and displays. Reliability concerns for white LEDs are changing from the luminous efficiency to color quality. However, most of the current available research on the reliability of LEDs is still focused on luminous flux depreciation rather than color shift failure. The spectral power distribution (SPD), defined as the radiant power distribution emitted by a light source at a range of visible wavelength, contains the most fundamental luminescence mechanisms of a light source. SPD is used as the quantitative inference of an LED's optical characteristics, including color coordinates that are widely used to represent the color shift process. Thus, to model the color shift failure of white LEDs during aging, this paper first extracts the features of an SPD, representing the characteristics of blue LED chips and phosphors, by multi-peak curve-fitting and modeling them with statistical functions. Then, because the shift processes of extracted features in aged LEDs are always nonlinear, a nonlinear state-space model is then developed to predict the color shift failure time within a self-adaptive particle filter framework. The results show that: (1) the failure mechanisms of LEDs can be identified by analyzing the extracted features of SPD with statistical curve-fitting and (2) the developed method can dynamically and accurately predict the color coordinates, correlated color temperatures (CCTs), and color rendering indexes (CRIs) of phosphor-converted (pc)-white LEDs, and also can estimate the residual color life.

Electrical stimulation of rhesus monkey nucleus reticularis gigantocellularis. II. Effects on metrics and kinematics of ongoing gaze shifts to visual targets.

PubMed

Freedman, Edward G; Quessy, Stephan

2004-06-01

Saccade kinematics are altered by ongoing head movements. The hypothesis that a head movement command signal, proportional to head velocity, transiently reduces the gain of the saccadic burst generator (Freedman 2001, Biol Cybern 84:453-462) can account for this observation. Using electrical stimulation of the rhesus monkey nucleus reticularis gigantocellularis (NRG) to alter the head contribution to ongoing gaze shifts, two critical predictions of this gaze control hypothesis were tested. First, this hypothesis predicts that activation of the head command pathway will cause a transient reduction in the gain of the saccadic burst generator. This should alter saccade kinematics by initially reducing velocity without altering saccade amplitude. Second, because this hypothesis does not assume that gaze amplitude is controlled via feedback, the added head contribution (produced by NRG stimulation on the side ipsilateral to the direction of an ongoing gaze shift) should lead to hypermetric gaze shifts. At every stimulation site tested, saccade kinematics were systematically altered in a way that was consistent with transient reduction of the gain of the saccadic burst generator. In addition, gaze shifts produced during NRG stimulation were hypermetric compared with control movements. For example, when targets were briefly flashed 30 degrees from an initial fixation location, gaze shifts during NRG stimulation were on average 140% larger than control movements. These data are consistent with the predictions of the tested hypothesis, and may be problematic for gaze control models that rely on feedback control of gaze amplitude, as well as for models that do not posit an interaction between head commands and the saccade burst generator.

African American English-speaking students: a longitudinal examination of style shifting from kindergarten through second grade.

PubMed

Craig, Holly K; Kolenic, Giselle E; Hensel, Stephanie L

2014-02-01

The purpose of this longitudinal study was twofold: to examine shifting from African American English (AAE) to mainstream American English (MAE) across the early elementary grades, when students are first exposed to formal instruction in reading; and to examine how metalinguistic and cognitive variables influenced the students' dialectal adaptations from AAE to MAE in a literacy context with higher expectations for MAE. Participants were 102 typically developing AAE-speaking students enrolled in public schools in the northern Midwest. They were enrolled in the project at kindergarten and tested 3 times a year, for 3 years. Approximately half were male and half female, and two-thirds were from low socioeconomic status homes. A style shifting coefficient (SSC) was created to measure amounts of dialect change between contexts and over time by individuals. Some students shifted to MAE in literacy contexts, and shifting was not related to grade. Metalinguistic skills and SSC predicted reading, and metalinguistic skills predicted the SSC at 2nd grade. The findings indicated that cognitive executive functions may contribute to the SSC. The results provide strong support for the dialect shifting-reading achievement hypothesis and indicated that metalinguistic and perhaps executive functioning are important influences on this linguistic adaptation.

Habitat shifts in the evolutionary history of a Neotropical flycatcher lineage from forest and open landscapes

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Background Little is known about the role ecological shifts play in the evolution of Neotropical radiations that have colonized a variety of environments. We here examine habitat shifts in the evolutionary history of Elaenia flycatchers, a Neotropical bird lineage that lives in a range of forest and open habitats. We evaluate phylogenetic relationships within the genus based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data, and then employ parsimony-based and Bayesian methods to reconstruct preferences for a number of habitat types and migratory behaviour throughout the evolutionary history of the genus. Using a molecular clock approach, we date the most important habitat shifts. Results Our analyses resolve phylogenetic relationships among Elaenia species and confirm several species associations predicted by morphology while furnishing support for other taxon placements that are in conflict with traditional classification, such as the elevation of various Elaenia taxa to species level. While savannah specialism is restricted to one basal clade within the genus, montane forest was invaded from open habitat only on a limited number of occasions. Riparian growth may have been favoured early on in the evolution of the main Elaenia clade and subsequently been deserted on several occasions. Austral long-distance migratory behaviour evolved on several occasions. Conclusion Ancestral reconstructions of habitat preferences reveal pronounced differences not only in the timing of the emergence of certain habitat preferences, but also in the frequency of habitat shifts. The early origin of savannah specialism in Elaenia highlights the importance of this habitat in Neotropical Pliocene and late Miocene biogeography. While forest in old mountain ranges such as the Tepuis and the Brazilian Shield was colonized early on, the most important colonization event of montane forest was in conjunction with Pliocene Andean uplift. Riparian habitats may have played an important role in facilitating habitat shifts by birds expanding up the mountains along streams and adapting to newly emerging montane forest habitat. PMID:18601752

Strain- and stress-based forming limit curves for DP 590 steel sheet using Marciniak-Kuczynski method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Gautam; Maji, Kuntal

2018-04-01

This article deals with the prediction of strain-and stress-based forming limit curves for advanced high strength steel DP590 sheet using Marciniak-Kuczynski (M-K) method. Three yield criteria namely Von-Mises, Hill's 48 and Yld2000-2d and two hardening laws i.e., Hollomon power and Swift hardening laws were considered to predict the forming limit curves (FLCs) for DP590 steel sheet. The effects of imperfection factor and initial groove angle on prediction of FLC were also investigated. It was observed that the FLCs shifted upward with the increase of imperfection factor value. The initial groove angle was found to have significant effects on limit strains in the left side of FLC, and insignificant effect for the right side of FLC for certain range of strain paths. The limit strains were calculated at zero groove angle for the right side of FLC, and a critical groove angle was used for the left side of FLC. The numerically predicted FLCs considering the different combinations of yield criteria and hardening laws were compared with the published experimental results of FLCs for DP590 steel sheet. The FLC predicted using the combination of Yld2000-2d yield criterion and swift hardening law was in better coorelation with the experimental data. Stress based forming limit curves (SFLCs) were also calculated from the limiting strain values obtained by M-K model. Theoretically predicted SFLCs were compared with that obtained from the experimental forming limit strains. Stress based forming limit curves were seen to better represent the forming limits of DP590 steel sheet compared to that by strain-based forming limit curves.

Difference between observed and predicted glycated hemoglobin at baseline and treatment response to vildagliptin-based dual oral therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Wang, Jun-Sing; Hung, Yi-Jen; Lu, Yung-Chuan; Tsai, Cheng-Lin; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Lee, Ting-I; Hsiao, Ya-Chun; Sheu, Wayne Huey-Herng

2018-04-01

We aimed to investigate the association of difference between observed and predicted glycated hemoglobin (dopHbA1c) and HbA1c reduction after vildagliptin-based oral therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This was a prospective observational study. Adults ≥ 20 years old with T2D and HbA1c ≧7% treated with oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs) were eligible if their OADs were shifted to vildagliptin-based dual oral therapy. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c were recorded at baseline, week 12, and week 24. To determine baseline dopHbA1c, a predicted HbA1c was calculated by inserting baseline FPG into a regression equation (HbA1c = FPG ∗ 0.0225 + 4.3806) developed from linear relationship between HbA1c and FPG in an independent cohort of 3239 outpatients with T2D (dopHbA1c = observed HbA1c - predicted HbA1c). Patients were assigned to low (≦0) or high (>0) dopHbA1c group according to their baseline dopHbA1c levels. The study endpoint was changes from baseline to week 24 in HbA1c levels. A total of 1224 patients were enrolled. Patients with a dopHbA1c >0 had a greater HbA1c reduction after vildagliptin-based dual oral therapy than those with a dopHbA1c ≦0 (-1.5 ± 2.0 vs. -0.4 ± 1.0%, p < 0.001). Baseline dopHbA1c was positively associated with HbA1c reduction from baseline to week 24 (β coefficient 0.883, 95% CI 0.811 to 0.955, p < 0.001), and the association remained significant after adjustment for confounders. In T2D patients with an HbA1c ≧7%, a higher baseline dopHbA1c was associated with a greater HbA1c reduction after shifting to vildagliptin-based dual oral therapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate-driven shifts in adult sex ratios via sex reversals: the type of sex determination matters.

PubMed

Bókony, Veronika; Kövér, Szilvia; Nemesházi, Edina; Liker, András; Székely, Tamás

2017-09-19

Sex reversals whereby individuals of one genetic sex develop the phenotype of the opposite sex occur in ectothermic vertebrates with genetic sex-determination systems that are sensitive to extreme temperatures during sexual differentiation. Recent rises in global temperatures have led researchers to predict that sex reversals will become more common, resulting in the distortion of many populations' sex ratios. However, it is unclear whether susceptibility to climate-driven sex-ratio shifts depends on the type of sex determination that varies across species. First, we show here using individual-based theoretical models that XX/XY (male-heterogametic) and ZZ/ZW (female-heterogametic) sex-determination systems can respond differentially to temperature-induced sex reversals. Interestingly, the impacts of climate warming on adult sex ratio (ASR) depend on the effects of both genotypic and phenotypic sex on survival and reproduction. Second, we analyse the temporal changes of ASR in natural amphibian populations using data from the literature, and find that ASR shifted towards males in ZZ/ZW species over the past 60 years, but did not change significantly in XX/XY species. Our results highlight the fact that we need a better understanding of the interactions between genetic and environmental sex-determining mechanisms to predict the responses of ectotherms to climate change and the associated extinction risks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Adult sex ratios and reproductive decisions: a critical re-examination of sex differences in human and animal societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Flexibility to contingency changes distinguishes habitual and goal-directed strategies in humans

PubMed Central

Keramati, Mehdi

2017-01-01

Decision-making in the real world presents the challenge of requiring flexible yet prompt behavior, a balance that has been characterized in terms of a trade-off between a slower, prospective goal-directed model-based (MB) strategy and a fast, retrospective habitual model-free (MF) strategy. Theory predicts that flexibility to changes in both reward values and transition contingencies can determine the relative influence of the two systems in reinforcement learning, but few studies have manipulated the latter. Therefore, we developed a novel two-level contingency change task in which transition contingencies between states change every few trials; MB and MF control predict different responses following these contingency changes, allowing their relative influence to be inferred. Additionally, we manipulated the rate of contingency changes in order to determine whether contingency change volatility would play a role in shifting subjects between a MB and MF strategy. We found that human subjects employed a hybrid MB/MF strategy on the task, corroborating the parallel contribution of MB and MF systems in reinforcement learning. Further, subjects did not remain at one level of MB/MF behaviour but rather displayed a shift towards more MB behavior over the first two blocks that was not attributable to the rate of contingency changes but rather to the extent of training. We demonstrate that flexibility to contingency changes can distinguish MB and MF strategies, with human subjects utilizing a hybrid strategy that shifts towards more MB behavior over blocks, consequently corresponding to a higher payoff. PMID:28957319

Flexibility to contingency changes distinguishes habitual and goal-directed strategies in humans.

PubMed

Lee, Julie J; Keramati, Mehdi

2017-09-01

Decision-making in the real world presents the challenge of requiring flexible yet prompt behavior, a balance that has been characterized in terms of a trade-off between a slower, prospective goal-directed model-based (MB) strategy and a fast, retrospective habitual model-free (MF) strategy. Theory predicts that flexibility to changes in both reward values and transition contingencies can determine the relative influence of the two systems in reinforcement learning, but few studies have manipulated the latter. Therefore, we developed a novel two-level contingency change task in which transition contingencies between states change every few trials; MB and MF control predict different responses following these contingency changes, allowing their relative influence to be inferred. Additionally, we manipulated the rate of contingency changes in order to determine whether contingency change volatility would play a role in shifting subjects between a MB and MF strategy. We found that human subjects employed a hybrid MB/MF strategy on the task, corroborating the parallel contribution of MB and MF systems in reinforcement learning. Further, subjects did not remain at one level of MB/MF behaviour but rather displayed a shift towards more MB behavior over the first two blocks that was not attributable to the rate of contingency changes but rather to the extent of training. We demonstrate that flexibility to contingency changes can distinguish MB and MF strategies, with human subjects utilizing a hybrid strategy that shifts towards more MB behavior over blocks, consequently corresponding to a higher payoff.

Field-scale Prediction of Enhanced DNAPL Dissolution Using Partitioning Tracers and Flow Pattern Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Annable, M. D.; Jawitz, J. W.

2012-12-01

The equilibrium streamtube model (EST) has demonstrated the ability to accurately predict dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) dissolution in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. Here the model is applied to predict DNAPL dissolution at a PCE-contaminated dry cleaner site, located in Jacksonville, Florida. The EST is an analytical solution with field-measurable input parameters. Here, measured data from a field-scale partitioning tracer test were used to parameterize the EST model and the predicted PCE dissolution was compared to measured data from an in-situ alcohol (ethanol) flood. In addition, a simulated partitioning tracer test from a calibrated spatially explicit multiphase flow model (UTCHEM) was also used to parameterize the EST analytical solution. The ethanol prediction based on both the field partitioning tracer test and the UTCHEM tracer test simulation closely matched the field data. The PCE EST prediction showed a peak shift to an earlier arrival time that was concluded to be caused by well screen interval differences between the field tracer test and alcohol flood. This observation was based on a modeling assessment of potential factors that may influence predictions by using UTCHEM simulations. The imposed injection and pumping flow pattern at this site for both the partitioning tracer test and alcohol flood was more complex than the natural gradient flow pattern (NGFP). Both the EST model and UTCHEM were also used to predict PCE dissolution under natural gradient conditions, with much simpler flow patterns than the forced-gradient double five spot of the alcohol flood. The NGFP predictions based on parameters determined from tracer tests conducted with complex flow patterns underestimated PCE concentrations and total mass removal. This suggests that the flow patterns influence aqueous dissolution and that the aqueous dissolution under the NGFP is more efficient than dissolution under complex flow patterns.

Predicting solvatochromic shifts and colours of a solvated organic dye: The example of nile red

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuehlsdorff, T. J.; Haynes, P. D.; Payne, M. C.; Hine, N. D. M.

2017-03-01

The solvatochromic shift, as well as the change in colour of the simple organic dye nile red, is studied in two polar and two non-polar solvents in the context of large-scale time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT) calculations treating large parts of the solvent environment from first principles. We show that an explicit solvent representation is vital to resolve absorption peak shifts between nile red in n-hexane and toluene, as well as acetone and ethanol. The origin of the failure of implicit solvent models for these solvents is identified as being due to the strong solute-solvent interactions in form of π-stacking and hydrogen bonding in the case of toluene and ethanol. We furthermore demonstrate that the failures of the computationally inexpensive Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) functional in describing some features of the excited state potential energy surface of the S1 state of nile red can be corrected for in a straightforward fashion, relying only on a small number of calculations making use of more sophisticated range-separated hybrid functionals. The resulting solvatochromic shifts and predicted colours are in excellent agreement with experiment, showing the computational approach outlined in this work to yield very robust predictions of optical properties of dyes in solution.

Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

You, Jianling; Qin, Xiaoping; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Lougheed, Stephen C; Wang, Mingcheng; Zhou, Wen; Ouyang, Dongxin; Zhou, Yin; Xu, Jianchu; Zhang, Wenju; Wang, Yuguo; Yang, Ji; Song, Zhiping

2018-04-12

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as "nowhere to go". To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000-140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the "nowhere to go" hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

Information about the US racial demographic shift triggers concerns about anti-White discrimination among the prospective White “minority”

PubMed Central

Richeson, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

The United States is undergoing a demographic shift in which White Americans are predicted to comprise less than 50% of the US population by mid-century. The present research examines how exposure to information about this racial shift affects perceptions of the extent to which different racial groups face discrimination. In four experiments, making the growing national racial diversity salient led White Americans to predict that Whites will face increasing discrimination in the future, compared with control information. Conversely, regardless of experimental condition, Whites estimated that discrimination against various racial minority groups will decline. Explorations of several psychological mechanisms potentially underlying the effect of the racial shift information on perceived anti-White discrimination suggested a mediating role of concerns about American culture fundamentally changing. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports about the changing national demographics enhance concerns among Whites that they will be the victims of racial discrimination in the future. PMID:28953971

Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

2015-10-01

Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

Acoustic monitoring of the tide height and slope-water intrusion at the New Jersey Shelf in winter conditions.

PubMed

Turgut, Altan; Orr, Marshall; Pasewark, Bruce

2007-05-01

Waveguide invariant theory is used to describe the frequency shifts of constant acoustic intensity level curves in broadband signal spectrograms measured at the New Jersey Shelf during the winter of 2003. The broadband signals (270-330 Hz) were transmitted from a fixed source and received at three fixed receivers, located at 10, 20, and 30 km range along a cross-shelf propagation track. The constant acoustic intensity level curves of the received signals indicate regular frequency shifts that can be well predicted by the change in water depth observed through tens of tidal cycles. A second pattern of frequency shifts is observed at only 30 km range where significant variability of slope-water intrusion was measured. An excellent agreement between observed frequency shifts of the constant acoustic intensity levels and those predicted by the change in tide height and slope water elevations suggests the capability of long-term acoustic monitoring of tide and slope water intrusions in winter conditions.

Trail making task performance in inpatients with anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Vall, Eva; Wade, Tracey D

2015-07-01

Set-shifting inefficiencies have been consistently identified in adults with anorexia nervosa (AN). It is less clear to what degree similar inefficiencies are present in those with bulimia nervosa (BN). It is also unknown whether perfectionism is related to set-shifting performance. We employed a commonly used set-shifting measure, the Trail Making Test (TMT), to compare the performance of inpatients with AN and BN with a healthy control sample. We also investigated whether perfectionism predicted TMT scores. Only the BN sample showed significantly suboptimal performance, while the AN sample was indistinguishable from controls on all measures. There were no differences between the AN subtypes (restrictive or binge/purge), but group sizes were small. Higher personal standards perfectionism was associated with better TMT scores across groups. Higher concern over mistakes perfectionism predicted better accuracy in the BN sample. Further research into the set-shifting profile of individuals with BN or binge/purge behaviours is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

Information about the US racial demographic shift triggers concerns about anti-White discrimination among the prospective White "minority".

PubMed

Craig, Maureen A; Richeson, Jennifer A

2017-01-01

The United States is undergoing a demographic shift in which White Americans are predicted to comprise less than 50% of the US population by mid-century. The present research examines how exposure to information about this racial shift affects perceptions of the extent to which different racial groups face discrimination. In four experiments, making the growing national racial diversity salient led White Americans to predict that Whites will face increasing discrimination in the future, compared with control information. Conversely, regardless of experimental condition, Whites estimated that discrimination against various racial minority groups will decline. Explorations of several psychological mechanisms potentially underlying the effect of the racial shift information on perceived anti-White discrimination suggested a mediating role of concerns about American culture fundamentally changing. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports about the changing national demographics enhance concerns among Whites that they will be the victims of racial discrimination in the future.

Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.

PubMed

Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas

2012-09-01

We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.

Building blocks for automated elucidation of metabolites: machine learning methods for NMR prediction.

PubMed

Kuhn, Stefan; Egert, Björn; Neumann, Steffen; Steinbeck, Christoph

2008-09-25

Current efforts in Metabolomics, such as the Human Metabolome Project, collect structures of biological metabolites as well as data for their characterisation, such as spectra for identification of substances and measurements of their concentration. Still, only a fraction of existing metabolites and their spectral fingerprints are known. Computer-Assisted Structure Elucidation (CASE) of biological metabolites will be an important tool to leverage this lack of knowledge. Indispensable for CASE are modules to predict spectra for hypothetical structures. This paper evaluates different statistical and machine learning methods to perform predictions of proton NMR spectra based on data from our open database NMRShiftDB. A mean absolute error of 0.18 ppm was achieved for the prediction of proton NMR shifts ranging from 0 to 11 ppm. Random forest, J48 decision tree and support vector machines achieved similar overall errors. HOSE codes being a notably simple method achieved a comparatively good result of 0.17 ppm mean absolute error. NMR prediction methods applied in the course of this work delivered precise predictions which can serve as a building block for Computer-Assisted Structure Elucidation for biological metabolites.

Coral-macroalgal phase shifts or reef resilience: links with diversity and functional roles of herbivorous fishes on the Great Barrier Reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheal, A. J.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Cripps, E.; Emslie, M. J.; Jonker, M.; Schaffelke, B.; Sweatman, H.

2010-12-01

Changes from coral to macroalgal dominance following disturbances to corals symbolize the global degradation of coral reefs. The development of effective conservation measures depends on understanding the causes of such phase shifts. The prevailing view that coral-macroalgal phase shifts commonly occur due to insufficient grazing by fishes is based on correlation with overfishing and inferences from models and small-scale experiments rather than on long-term quantitative field studies of fish communities at affected and resilient sites. Consequently, the specific characteristics of herbivorous fish communities that most promote reef resilience under natural conditions are not known, though this information is critical for identifying vulnerable ecosystems. In this study, 11 years of field surveys recorded the development of the most persistent coral-macroalgal phase shift (>7 years) yet observed on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR). This shift followed extensive coral mortality caused by thermal stress (coral bleaching) and damaging storms. Comparisons with two similar reefs that suffered similar disturbances but recovered relatively rapidly demonstrated that the phase shift occurred despite high abundances of one herbivore functional group (scraping/excavating parrotfishes: Labridae). However, the shift was strongly associated with low fish herbivore diversity and low abundances of algal browsers (predominantly Siganidae) and grazers/detritivores (Acanthuridae), suggesting that one or more of these factors underpin reef resilience and so deserve particular protection. Herbivorous fishes are not harvested on the GBR, and the phase shift was not enhanced by unusually high nutrient levels. This shows that unexploited populations of herbivorous fishes cannot ensure reef resilience even under benign conditions and suggests that reefs could lose resilience under relatively low fishing pressure. Predictions of more severe and widespread coral mortality due to global climate change emphasize the need for more effective identification and protection of ecosystem components that are critical for the prevention of coral reef phase shifts.

Molecular dynamics averaging of Xe chemical shifts in liquids.

PubMed

Jameson, Cynthia J; Sears, Devin N; Murad, Sohail

2004-11-15

The Xe nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shift differences that afford the discrimination between various biological environments are of current interest for biosensor applications and medical diagnostic purposes. In many such environments the Xe signal appears close to that in water. We calculate average Xe chemical shifts (relative to the free Xe atom) in solution in eleven liquids: water, isobutane, perfluoro-isobutane, n-butane, n-pentane, neopentane, perfluoroneopentane, n-hexane, n-octane, n-perfluorooctane, and perfluorooctyl bromide. The latter is a liquid used for intravenous Xe delivery. We calculate quantum mechanically the Xe shielding response in Xe-molecule van der Waals complexes, from which calculations we develop Xe (atomic site) interpolating functions that reproduce the ab initio Xe shielding response in the complex. By assuming additivity, these Xe-site shielding functions can be used to calculate the shielding for any configuration of such molecules around Xe. The averaging over configurations is done via molecular dynamics (MD). The simulations were carried out using a MD technique that one of us had developed previously for the simulation of Henry's constants of gases dissolved in liquids. It is based on separating a gaseous compartment in the MD system from the solvent using a semipermeable membrane that is permeable only to the gas molecules. We reproduce the experimental trends in the Xe chemical shifts in n-alkanes with increasing number of carbons and the large chemical shift difference between Xe in water and in perfluorooctyl bromide. We also reproduce the trend for a given solvent of decreasing Xe chemical shift with increasing temperature. We predict chemical shift differences between Xe in alkanes vs their perfluoro counterparts.

Doppler-shifting effects on frequency spectra of gravity waves observed near the summer mesopause at high latitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fritts, David C.; Wang, Ding-Yi

1991-01-01

Results are presented of radar observations of horizontal and vertical velocities near the summer mesopause at Poker Flat (Alaska), showing that the observed vertical velocity spectra were influenced strongly by Doppler-shifting effects. The horizontal velocity spectra, however, were relatively insensitive to horizontal wind speed. The observed spectra are compared with predicted spectra for various models of the intrinsic motion spectrum and degrees of Doppler shifting.

Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Shift Reagents: Abnormal 13C Shifts Produced by Complexation of Lanthanide Chelates with Saturated Amines and n-Butyl Isocyanide

PubMed Central

Marzin, Claude; Leibfritz, Dieter; Hawkes, Geoffrey E.; Roberts, John D.

1973-01-01

Lanthanide-induced shfits of 13C nuclear magnetic resonances are reported for several amines and n-butyl isocyanide. Contact contributions to such shifts, especially of β carbons, are clearly important for the chelates of Eu+3 and Pr+3. The importance of contact terms is shown to change in a rather predictable manner with the structure of the amine. PMID:16592062

Cognitive Shifting as a Predictor of Progress in Social Understanding in High-Functioning Adolescents with Autism: A Prospective Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Hans J. C.; And Others

1993-01-01

This prospective study of 17 high-functioning residentially treated adolescents with autism found that cognitive shifting, as measured by card sorting tests, was the only significant factor in predicting progress in social understanding. (Author/JDD)

Raman spectroscopy study and first-principles calculations of the interaction between nucleic acid bases and carbon nanotubes.

PubMed

Stepanian, Stepan G; Karachevtsev, Maksym V; Glamazda, Alexander Yu; Karachevtsev, Victor A; Adamowicz, L

2009-04-16

In this work, we have used Raman spectroscopy and quantum chemical methods (MP2 and DFT) to study the interactions between nucleic acid bases (NABs) and single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). We found that the appearance of the interaction between the nanotubes and the NABs is accompanied by a spectral shift of the high-frequency component of the SWCNT G band in the Raman spectrum to a lower frequency region. The value of this shift varies from 0.7 to 1.3 cm(-1) for the metallic nanotubes and from 2.1 to 3.2 cm(-1) for the semiconducting nanotubes. Calculations of the interaction energies between the NABs and a fragment of the zigzag(10,0) carbon nanotube performed at the MP2/6-31++G(d,p)[NABs atoms]|6-31G(d)[nanotube atoms] level of theory while accounting for the basis set superposition error during geometry optimization allowed us to order the NABs according to the increasing interaction energy value. The order is: guanine (-67.1 kJ mol(-1)) > adenine (-59.0 kJ mol(-1)) > cytosine (-50.3 kJ mol(-1)) approximately = thymine (-50.2 kJ mol(-1)) > uracil (-44.2 kJ mol(-1)). The MP2 equilibrium structures and the interaction energies were used as reference points in the evaluation of the ability of various functionals in the DFT method to predict those structures and energies. We showed that the M05, MPWB1K, and MPW1B95 density functionals are capable of correctly predicting the SWCNT-NAB geometries but not the interaction energies, while the M05-2X functional is capable of correctly predicting both the geometries and the interaction energies.

Competition for nutrients and light: testing advances in resource competition with a natural phytoplankton community.

PubMed

Burson, Amanda; Stomp, Maayke; Greenwell, Emma; Grosse, Julia; Huisman, Jef

2018-05-01

A key challenge in ecology is to understand how nutrients and light affect the biodiversity and community structure of phytoplankton and plant communities. According to resource competition models, ratios of limiting nutrients are major determinants of species composition. At high nutrient levels, however, species interactions may shift to competition for light, which might make nutrient ratios less relevant. The "nutrient-load hypothesis" merges these two perspectives, by extending the classic model of competition for two nutrients to include competition for light. Here, we test five key predictions of the nutrient-load hypothesis using multispecies competition experiments. A marine phytoplankton community sampled from the North Sea was inoculated in laboratory chemostats provided with different nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to induce either single resource limitation or co-limitation of N, P, and light. Four of the five predictions were validated by the experiments. In particular, different resource limitations favored the dominance of different species. Increasing nutrient loads caused changes in phytoplankton species composition, even if the N:P ratio of the nutrient loads remained constant, by shifting the species interactions from competition for nutrients to competition for light. In all treatments, small species became dominant whereas larger species were competitively excluded, supporting the common view that small cell size provides a competitive advantage under resource-limited conditions. Contrary to expectation, all treatments led to coexistence of diatoms, cyanobacteria and green algae, resulting in a higher diversity of species than predicted by theory. Because the coexisting species comprised three phyla with different photosynthetic pigments, we speculate that niche differentiation in the light spectrum might play a role. Our results show that mechanistic resource competition models that integrate nutrient-based and light-based approaches provide an important step forward to understand and predict how changing nutrient loads affect community composition. © 2018 The Authors Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.

Brain Evolution and Human Neuropsychology: The Inferential Brain Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Koscik, Timothy R.; Tranel, Daniel

2013-01-01

Collaboration between human neuropsychology and comparative neuroscience has generated invaluable contributions to our understanding of human brain evolution and function. Further cross-talk between these disciplines has the potential to continue to revolutionize these fields. Modern neuroimaging methods could be applied in a comparative context, yielding exciting new data with the potential of providing insight into brain evolution. Conversely, incorporating an evolutionary base into the theoretical perspectives from which we approach human neuropsychology could lead to novel hypotheses and testable predictions. In the spirit of these objectives, we present here a new theoretical proposal, the Inferential Brain Hypothesis, whereby the human brain is thought to be characterized by a shift from perceptual processing to inferential computation, particularly within the social realm. This shift is believed to be a driving force for the evolution of the large human cortex. PMID:22459075

Electric-field assisted spin torque nano-oscillator and binary frequency shift keying modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiangli; Chen, Hao-Hsuan; Zhang, Zongzhi; Liu, Yaowen

2018-04-01

Electric-controlled magnetization precession introduces technologically relevant possibility for developing spin torque nano-oscillators (STNO) with potential applications in microwave emission. Using the perpendicularly magnetized magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ), we show that the magnetization oscillation frequency can be tuned by the co-action of electric field and spin polarized current. The dynamical phase diagram of MTJ-based STNO is analytically predicted through coordinate transformation from the laboratory frame to the rotation frame, by which the nonstationary out-of-plane magnetization precession process is therefore transformed into the stationary process in the rotation frame. Furthermore, using this STNO as a microwave source, we numerically demonstrate that the bit signal can be transmitted by a binary frequency shift keying (BFSK) modulation technique. The BFSK scheme shows good modulation features with no transient state.

Risk and the physics of clinical prediction.

PubMed

McEvoy, John W; Diamond, George A; Detrano, Robert C; Kaul, Sanjay; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger S; Jones, Steven R

2014-04-15

The current paradigm of primary prevention in cardiology uses traditional risk factors to estimate future cardiovascular risk. These risk estimates are based on prediction models derived from prospective cohort studies and are incorporated into guideline-based initiation algorithms for commonly used preventive pharmacologic treatments, such as aspirin and statins. However, risk estimates are more accurate for populations of similar patients than they are for any individual patient. It may be hazardous to presume that the point estimate of risk derived from a population model represents the most accurate estimate for a given patient. In this review, we exploit principles derived from physics as a metaphor for the distinction between predictions regarding populations versus patients. We identify the following: (1) predictions of risk are accurate at the level of populations but do not translate directly to patients, (2) perfect accuracy of individual risk estimation is unobtainable even with the addition of multiple novel risk factors, and (3) direct measurement of subclinical disease (screening) affords far greater certainty regarding the personalized treatment of patients, whereas risk estimates often remain uncertain for patients. In conclusion, shifting our focus from prediction of events to detection of disease could improve personalized decision-making and outcomes. We also discuss innovative future strategies for risk estimation and treatment allocation in preventive cardiology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of rhythmic stimulus presentation on oscillatory brain activity: the physiology of cueing in Parkinson’s disease

PubMed Central

te Woerd, Erik S.; Oostenveld, Robert; Bloem, Bastiaan R.; de Lange, Floris P.; Praamstra, Peter

2015-01-01

The basal ganglia play an important role in beat perception and patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are impaired in perception of beat-based rhythms. Rhythmic cues are nonetheless beneficial in gait rehabilitation, raising the question how rhythm improves movement in PD. We addressed this question with magnetoencephalography recordings during a choice response task with rhythmic and non-rhythmic modes of stimulus presentation. Analyses focused on (i) entrainment of slow oscillations, (ii) the depth of beta power modulation, and (iii) whether a gain in modulation depth of beta power, due to rhythmicity, is of predictive or reactive nature. The results show weaker phase synchronisation of slow oscillations and a relative shift from predictive to reactive movement-related beta suppression in PD. Nonetheless, rhythmic stimulus presentation increased beta modulation depth to the same extent in patients and controls. Critically, this gain selectively increased the predictive and not reactive movement-related beta power suppression. Operation of a predictive mechanism, induced by rhythmic stimulation, was corroborated by a sensory gating effect in the sensorimotor cortex. The predictive mode of cue utilisation points to facilitation of basal ganglia-premotor interactions, contrasting with the popular view that rhythmic stimulation confers a special advantage in PD, based on recruitment of alternative pathways. PMID:26509117

On the temperature dependence of flammability limits of gases.

PubMed

Kondo, Shigeo; Takizawa, Kenji; Takahashi, Akifumi; Tokuhashi, Kazuaki

2011-03-15

Flammability limits of several combustible gases were measured at temperatures from 5 to 100 °C in a 12-l spherical flask basically following ASHRAE method. The measurements were done for methane, propane, isobutane, ethylene, propylene, dimethyl ether, methyl formate, 1,1-difluoroethane, ammonia, and carbon monoxide. As the temperature rises, the lower flammability limits are gradually shifted down and the upper limits are shifted up. Both the limits shift almost linearly to temperature within the range examined. The linear temperature dependence of the lower flammability limits is explained well using a limiting flame temperature concept at the lower concentration limit (LFL)--'White's rule'. The geometric mean of the flammability limits has been found to be relatively constant for many compounds over the temperature range studied (5-100 °C). Based on this fact, the temperature dependence of the upper flammability limit (UFL) can be predicted reasonably using the temperature coefficient calculated for the LFL. However, some compounds such as ethylene and dimethyl ether, in particular, have a more complex temperature dependence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microstrip patch antenna for simultaneous strain and temperature sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbanya Tchafa, F.; Huang, H.

2018-06-01

A patch antenna, consisting of a radiation patch, a dielectric substrate, and a ground plane, resonates at distinct fundamental frequencies that depend on the substrate dielectric constant and the dimensions of the radiation patch. Since these parameters change with the applied strain and temperature, this study investigates simultaneous strain and temperature sensing using a single antenna that has two fundamental resonant frequencies. The theoretical relationship between the antenna resonant frequency shifts, the temperature, and the applied strain was first established to guide the selection of the dielectric substrate, based on which an antenna sensor with a rectangular radiation patch was designed and fabricated. A tensile test specimen instrumented with the antenna sensor was subjected to thermo-mechanical tests. Experiment results validated the theoretical predictions that the normalized antenna resonant frequency shifts are linearly proportional to the applied strain and temperature changes. An inverse method was developed to determine the strain and temperature changes from the normalized antenna resonant frequency shifts, yielding measurement uncertainty of 0.4 °C and 17.22 μ \\varepsilon for temperature and strain measurement, respectively.

Strain-Induced Spin-Resonance Shifts in Silicon Devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pla, J. J.; Bienfait, A.; Pica, G.; Mansir, J.; Mohiyaddin, F. A.; Zeng, Z.; Niquet, Y. M.; Morello, A.; Schenkel, T.; Morton, J. J. L.; Bertet, P.

2018-04-01

In spin-based quantum-information-processing devices, the presence of control and detection circuitry can change the local environment of a spin by introducing strain and electric fields, altering its resonant frequencies. These resonance shifts can be large compared to intrinsic spin linewidths, and it is therefore important to study, understand, and model such effects in order to better predict device performance. We investigate a sample of bismuth donor spins implanted in a silicon chip, on top of which a superconducting aluminum microresonator is fabricated. The on-chip resonator provides two functions: it produces local strain in the silicon due to the larger thermal contraction of the aluminum, and it enables sensitive electron spin-resonance spectroscopy of donors close to the surface that experience this strain. Through finite-element strain simulations, we are able to reconstruct key features of our experiments, including the electron spin-resonance spectra. Our results are consistent with a recently observed mechanism for producing shifts of the hyperfine interaction for donors in silicon, which is linear with the hydrostatic component of an applied strain.

Factor structure and validation of the Attentional Control Scale.

PubMed

Judah, Matt R; Grant, DeMond M; Mills, Adam C; Lechner, William V

2014-04-01

The Attentional Control Scale (ACS; Derryberry & Reed, 2002) has been used to assess executive control over attention in numerous studies, but no published data have examined the factor structure of the English version. The current studies addressed this need and tested the predictive and convergent validity of the ACS subscales. In Study 1, exploratory factor analysis yielded a two-factor model with Focusing and Shifting subscales. In Study 2, confirmatory factor analysis supported this model and suggested superior fit compared to the factor structure of the Icelandic version (Ólafsson et al., 2011). Study 3 examined correlations between the ACS subscales and measures of working memory, anxiety, and cognitive control. Study 4 examined correlations between the subscales and reaction times on a mixed-antisaccade task, revealing positive correlations for antisaccade performance and prosaccade latency with Focusing scores and between switch trial performance and Shifting scores. Additionally, the findings partially supported unique relationships between Focusing and trait anxiety and between Shifting and depression that have been noted in recent research. Although the results generally support the validity of the ACS, additional research using performance-based tasks is needed.

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

Minimal impact of response shift for SF-12 mental and physical health status in homeless and vulnerably housed individuals: an item-level multi-group analysis.

PubMed

Gadermann, Anne M; Sawatzky, Richard; Palepu, Anita; Hubley, Anita M; Zumbo, Bruno D; Aubry, Tim; Farrell, Susan; Hwang, Stephen W

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether homeless or vulnerably housed individuals experienced response shift over a 12-month time period in their self-reported physical and mental health status. Data were obtained from the Health and Housing in Transition study, a longitudinal multi-site cohort study in Canada (N = 1190 at baseline). Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MG-CFA) and methods for response shift detection at the item level, based on the approach by Oort, were used to test for reconceptualization, reprioritization, and recalibration response shift on the SF-12 in four groups of individuals who were homeless (n = 170), housed (n = 437), or who reported a change in their housing status [from homeless to housed (n = 285) or housed to homeless (n = 73)] over a 12-month time period. Mean and variance adjusted weighted-least squares estimation was used to accommodate the ordinal and binary distributions of the SF-12 items. Using MG-CFA, a strict invariance model showed that the measurement model was equivalent for the four groups at baseline. Although we found small but statistically significant response shift for several measurement model parameters, the impact on the predicted average mental and physical health scores within each of the groups was small. Response shift does not appear to be a significant concern when using the SF-12 to obtain change scores over a 12-month period in this population.

Android application for determining surgical variables in brain-tumor resection procedures

PubMed Central

Vijayan, Rohan C.; Thompson, Reid C.; Chambless, Lola B.; Morone, Peter J.; He, Le; Clements, Logan W.; Griesenauer, Rebekah H.; Kang, Hakmook; Miga, Michael I.

2017-01-01

Abstract. The fidelity of image-guided neurosurgical procedures is often compromised due to the mechanical deformations that occur during surgery. In recent work, a framework was developed to predict the extent of this brain shift in brain-tumor resection procedures. The approach uses preoperatively determined surgical variables to predict brain shift and then subsequently corrects the patient’s preoperative image volume to more closely match the intraoperative state of the patient’s brain. However, a clinical workflow difficulty with the execution of this framework is the preoperative acquisition of surgical variables. To simplify and expedite this process, an Android, Java-based application was developed for tablets to provide neurosurgeons with the ability to manipulate three-dimensional models of the patient’s neuroanatomy and determine an expected head orientation, craniotomy size and location, and trajectory to be taken into the tumor. These variables can then be exported for use as inputs to the biomechanical model associated with the correction framework. A multisurgeon, multicase mock trial was conducted to compare the accuracy of the virtual plan to that of a mock physical surgery. It was concluded that the Android application was an accurate, efficient, and timely method for planning surgical variables. PMID:28331887

Android application for determining surgical variables in brain-tumor resection procedures.

PubMed

Vijayan, Rohan C; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B; Morone, Peter J; He, Le; Clements, Logan W; Griesenauer, Rebekah H; Kang, Hakmook; Miga, Michael I

2017-01-01

The fidelity of image-guided neurosurgical procedures is often compromised due to the mechanical deformations that occur during surgery. In recent work, a framework was developed to predict the extent of this brain shift in brain-tumor resection procedures. The approach uses preoperatively determined surgical variables to predict brain shift and then subsequently corrects the patient's preoperative image volume to more closely match the intraoperative state of the patient's brain. However, a clinical workflow difficulty with the execution of this framework is the preoperative acquisition of surgical variables. To simplify and expedite this process, an Android, Java-based application was developed for tablets to provide neurosurgeons with the ability to manipulate three-dimensional models of the patient's neuroanatomy and determine an expected head orientation, craniotomy size and location, and trajectory to be taken into the tumor. These variables can then be exported for use as inputs to the biomechanical model associated with the correction framework. A multisurgeon, multicase mock trial was conducted to compare the accuracy of the virtual plan to that of a mock physical surgery. It was concluded that the Android application was an accurate, efficient, and timely method for planning surgical variables.

Precoding based channel prediction for underwater acoustic OFDM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, En; Lin, Na; Sun, Hai-xin; Yan, Jia-quan; Qi, Jie

2017-04-01

The life duration of underwater cooperative network has been the hot topic in recent years. And the problem of node energy consuming is the key technology to maintain the energy balance among all nodes. To ensure energy efficiency of some special nodes and obtain a longer lifetime of the underwater cooperative network, this paper focuses on adopting precoding strategy to preprocess the signal at the transmitter and simplify the receiver structure. Meanwhile, it takes into account the presence of Doppler shifts and long feedback transmission delay in an underwater acoustic communication system. Precoding technique is applied based on channel prediction to realize energy saving and improve system performance. Different precoding methods are compared. Simulated results and experimental results show that the proposed scheme has a better performance, and it can provide a simple receiver and realize energy saving for some special nodes in a cooperative communication.

Food for Thought …

PubMed Central

Smirnova, Lena; Hogberg, Helena T.; Leist, Marcel; Hartung, Thomas

2016-01-01

Summary In recent years neurodevelopmental problems in children have increased at a rate that suggests lifestyle factors and chemical exposures as likely contributors. When environmental chemicals contribute to neurodevelopmental disorders developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) becomes an enormous concern. But how can it be tackled? Current animal test-based guidelines are prohibitively expensive, at $1.4 million per substance, while their predictivity for human health effects may be limited, and mechanistic data that would help species extrapolation are not available. A broader screening for substances of concern requires a reliable testing strategy, applicable to larger numbers of substances, and sufficiently predictive to warrant further testing. This review discusses the evidence for possible contributions of environmental chemicals to DNT, limitations of the current test paradigm, emerging concepts and technologies pertinent to in vitro DNT testing and assay evaluation, as well as the prospect of a paradigm shift based on 21st century technologies. PMID:24687333

Balance between facilitation and resource competition determines biomass-density relationships in plant populations.

PubMed

Chu, Cheng-Jin; Maestre, Fernando T; Xiao, Sa; Weiner, Jacob; Wang, You-Shi; Duan, Zheng-Hu; Wang, Gang

2008-11-01

Theories based on competition for resources predict a monotonic negative relationship between population density and individual biomass in plant populations. They do not consider the role of facilitative interactions, which are known to be important in high stress environments. Using an individual-based 'zone-of-influence' model, we investigated the hypothesis that the balance between facilitative and competitive interactions determines biomass-density relationships. We tested model predictions with a field experiment on the clonal grass Elymus nutans in an alpine meadow. In the model, the relationship between mean individual biomass and density shifted from monotonic to humped as abiotic stress increased. The model results were supported by the field experiment, in which the greatest individual and population biomass were found at intermediate densities in a high-stress alpine habitat. Our results show that facilitation can affect biomass-density relationships.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Full-Scale Measurement and Prediction of the Dynamics of High-Speed Helicopter Tow Cables

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-14

fairing at tow speeds up to 17 knots. The technique for measuring vibration amplitudes along the cable is based on fiber Bragg grating ( FBG ) sensors...cm long. As light propagates through a FBG , it is partially reflected at each interface between the bands of high and low refractive index. If the...slightly, which can be measured by a change in the Bragg wavelength. State-of-the-art FBG interrogators can resolve Bragg wavelength shifts down to 0.001 nm

Ground Runup Noise Suppression Program. Part 3. Dry Suppressor Technology Base.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-20

ref 7) used mineral wool to fill the bays. A facing of corrugated metal liner supports the mineral wool . During operation two types of problems...1978 52 tube. The hot jet velocity exhaust flow shifted/decinerated the mineral wool and caused the metal liner to crack/break off. Programs were...PREDICTED) 0 MINERAL WOOL FIBROUS LINER 315 630 1250 2500 5000 10000 20000 1/15 SCALE FREQUENCY Figure 2-30. Noise attenuation of liners in augmenter. K

Bragg-scattering conversion at telecom wavelengths towards the photon counting regime.

PubMed

Krupa, Katarzyna; Tonello, Alessandro; Kozlov, Victor V; Couderc, Vincent; Di Bin, Philippe; Wabnitz, Stefan; Barthélémy, Alain; Labonté, Laurent; Tanzilli, Sébastien

2012-11-19

We experimentally study Bragg-scattering four-wave mixing in a highly nonlinear fiber at telecom wavelengths using photon counters. We explore the polarization dependence of this process with a continuous wave signal in the macroscopic and attenuated regime, with a wavelength shift of 23 nm. Our measurements of mean photon numbers per second under various pump polarization configurations agree well with the theoretical and numerical predictions based on classical models. We discuss the impact of noise under these different polarization configurations.

Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

PubMed

Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Fort, Noémie; Boleda, Marti; Alberto, Florian J; Rioux, Delphine; Lainé, Juliette; Lavergne, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes.

Acid-base properties of 2:1 clays. I. Modeling the role of electrostatics.

PubMed

Delhorme, Maxime; Labbez, Christophe; Caillet, Céline; Thomas, Fabien

2010-06-15

We present a theoretical investigation of the titratable charge of clays with various structural charge (sigma(b)): pyrophyllite (sigma(b) = 0 e x nm(-2)), montmorillonite (sigma(b) = -0.7 e x nm(-2)) and illite (sigma(b) = -1.2 e x nm(-2)). The calculations were carried out using a Monte Carlo method in the Grand Canonical ensemble and in the framework of the primitive model. The clay particle was modeled as a perfect hexagonal platelet, with an "ideal" crystal structure. The only fitting parameters used are the intrinsic equilibrium constants (pK(0)) for the protonation/deprotonation reactions of the broken-bond sites on the lateral faces of the clay particles, silanol, =SiO(-) + H(+) --> =SiOH, and aluminol, =AlO(-1/2) + H(+) --> =AlOH(+1/2). Simulations are found to give a satisfactory description of the acid-base titration of montmorillonite without any additional fitting parameter. In particular, combining the electrostatics from the crystal substitutions with ionization constants, the simulations satisfactorily catch the shift in the titration curve of montmorillonite according to the ionic strength. Change in the ionic strength modulates the screening of the electrostatic interactions which results in this shift. Accordingly, the PZNPC is found to shift toward alkaline pH upon increasing the permanent basal charge. Unlike previous mean field model results, a significant decrease in PZNPC values is predicted in response to stack formation. Finally, the mean field approach is shown to be inappropriate to study the acid-base properties of clays.

Are Categorical Spatial Relations Encoded by Shifting Visual Attention between Objects?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Lei; Uttal, David; Franconeri, Steven

2016-01-01

Perceiving not just values, but relations between values, is critical to human cognition. We tested the predictions of a proposed mechanism for processing categorical spatial relations between two objects--the "shift account" of relation processing--which states that relations such as "above" or "below" are extracted…

Sports Institute for Research/Change Agent Research--SIR/CAR.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moriarty, Dick; Duthie, James

1974-01-01

The decline of the independent, scholar-scientist closeted in a library and/or laboratory resulting from increased social stress on universities for "more scholar per dollar" and "more relevance for the real world" predicts an inevitable shift to action research. The shift in system from relatively independent basic researchers…

Drought and leaf herbivory influence floral volatiles and pollinator attraction

Treesearch

Laura A. Burkle; Justin B. Runyon

2016-01-01

The effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood. Investigating the mechanisms by which species interactions may shift under altered environmental conditions will help form a more predictive understanding of such shifts. In particular, components of climate change have the potential to strongly influence floral volatile organic...

Institute Effectiveness through Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, B. J.

1984-01-01

An institution with a marketing orientation can (1) recognize shifts in the market and in perceptions of activities of significant markets or competing institutions and (2) respond to them. Institutions with strategic marketing may be better able to predict or influence market shifts and be judged as effective in the areas it prefers. (MSE)

Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem

PubMed Central

Shryock, Daniel F; DeFalco, Lesley A; Esque, Todd C

2014-01-01

The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies. PMID:25247062

Nonlinear modal resonances in low-gravity slosh-spacecraft systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Lee D.

1991-01-01

Nonlinear models of low gravity slosh, when coupled to spacecraft vibrations, predict intense nonlinear eigenfrequency shifts at zero gravity. These nonlinear frequency shifts are due to internal quadratic and cubic resonances between fluid slosh modes and spacecraft vibration modes. Their existence has been verified experimentally, and they cannot be correctly modeled by approximate, uncoupled nonlinear models, such as pendulum mechanical analogs. These predictions mean that linear slosh assumptions for spacecraft vibration models can be invalid, and may lead to degraded control system stability and performance. However, a complete nonlinear modal analysis will predict the correct dynamic behavior. This paper presents the analytical basis for these results, and discusses the effect of internal resonances on the nonlinear coupled response at zero gravity.

Zero-G experiments in two-phase fluids flow regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heppner, D. B.; King, C. D.; Littles, J. W.

1975-01-01

The two-phase flows studied were liquid and gas mixtures in a straight flow channel of circular cross-section. Boundaries between flow regimes have been defined for normogravity on coordinates of gas quality and total mass velocity; and, when combined with boundary expressions having a Froude number term, an analytical model was derived predicting boundary shifts with changes in gravity level. Experiments with air and water were performed, first in the normogravity environment of a ground laboratory and then in 'zero gravity' aboard a KC-135 aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Data reduction confirmed regime boundary shifts in the direction predicted, although the magnitude was a little less than predicted. Pressure drop measurements showed significant increases for the low gravity condition.

A computer-based measure of resultant achievement motivation.

PubMed

Blankenship, V

1987-08-01

Three experiments were conducted to develop a computer-based measure of individual differences in resultant achievement motivation (RAM) on the basis of level-of-aspiration, achievement motivation, and dynamics-of-action theories. In Experiment 1, the number of atypical shifts and greater responsiveness to incentives on 21 trials with choices among easy, intermediate, and difficult levels of an achievement-oriented game were positively correlated and were found to differentiate the 62 subjects (31 men, 31 women) on the amount of time they spent at a nonachievement task (watching a color design) 1 week later. In Experiment 2, test-retest reliability was established with the use of 67 subjects (15 men, 52 women). Point and no-point trials were offered in blocks, with point trials first for half the subjects and no-point trials first for the other half. Reliability was higher for the atypical-shift measure than for the incentive-responsiveness measure and was higher when points were offered first. In Experiment 3, computer anxiety was manipulated by creating a simulated computer breakdown in the experimental condition. Fifty-nine subjects (13 men, 46 women) were randomly assigned to the experimental condition or to one of two control conditions (an interruption condition and a no-interruption condition). Subjects with low RAM, as demonstrated by a low number of typical shifts, took longer to choose the achievement-oriented task, as predicted by the dynamics-of-action theory. The difference was evident in all conditions and most striking in the computer-breakdown condition. A change of focus from atypical to typical shifts is discussed.

Evidence for encoding versus retrieval scheduling in the hippocampus by theta phase and acetylcholine

PubMed Central

Douchamps, Vincent; Jeewajee, Ali; Blundell, Pam; Burgess, Neil; Lever, Colin

2013-01-01

The formation of new memories requires new information to be encoded in the face of proactive interference from the past. Two solutions have been proposed for hippocampal region CA1: 1) acetylcholine, released in novelty, selectively suppresses excitatory projections to CA1 from CA3 (mediating the products of retrieval), while sparing entorhinal inputs (mediating novel sensory information); 2) encoding preferentially occurs at the pyramidal-layer theta peak, coincident with input from entorhinal cortex, and retrieval occurs at the trough, coincident with input from CA3, consistent with theta-phase-dependent synaptic plasticity. We examined three predictions of these models: 1) In novel environments, the preferred theta phase of CA1 place cell firing should shift closer to the CA1 pyramidal-layer theta peak, shifting the encoding-retrieval balance towards encoding; 2) The encoding-related shift in novel environments should be disrupted by cholinergic antagonism; 3) In familiar environments, cholinergic antagonism should shift the preferred theta firing phase closer to the theta trough, shifting the encoding-retrieval balance even further towards retrieval. We tested these predictions by recording from CA1 pyramidal cells in freely moving rats as they foraged in open field environments under the influence of scopolamine (an amnestic cholinergic antagonist) or vehicle (saline). Results confirmed all three predictions, supporting both the theta phase and cholinergic models of encoding-vs-retrieval dynamics. Also consistent with cholinergic enhancement of encoding, scopolamine attenuated the formation of distinct spatial representations in a new environment, reducing the extent of place cell “remapping”. PMID:23678113

Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

PubMed Central

Baltensperger, A. P.; Huettmann, F.

2015-01-01

Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828

Focal shift and the axial optical coordinate for high-aperture systems of finite Fresnel number.

PubMed

Sheppard, Colin J R; Török, Peter

2003-11-01

Analytic expressions are given for the on-axis intensity predicted by the Rayleigh-Sommerfeld and Kirchhoff diffraction integrals for a scalar optical system of high numerical aperture and finite value of Fresnel number. A definition of the axial optical coordinate is introduced that is valid for finite values of Fresnel number, for high-aperture systems, and for observation points distant from the focus. The focal shift effect is reexamined. For the case when the focal shift is small, explicit expressions are given for the focal shift and the axial peak in intensity.

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brander, Keith M; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B; Sydeman, William J; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-11-04

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Power-based Shift Schedule for Pure Electric Vehicle with a Two-speed Automatic Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiaqi; Liu, Yanfang; Liu, Qiang; Xu, Xiangyang

2016-11-01

This paper introduces a comprehensive shift schedule for a two-speed automatic transmission of pure electric vehicle. Considering about driving ability and efficiency performance of electric vehicles, the power-based shift schedule is proposed with three principles. This comprehensive shift schedule regards the vehicle current speed and motor load power as input parameters to satisfy the vehicle driving power demand with lowest energy consumption. A simulation model has been established to verify the dynamic and economic performance of comprehensive shift schedule. Compared with traditional dynamic and economic shift schedules, simulation results indicate that the power-based shift schedule is superior to traditional shift schedules.

Lower-Hybrid-Drift Wave Turbulence in the Distant Magnetotail

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-05-01

kV ɘ with =• Y ~~ <» (Krall and Liewer, 1971). In this situation a Doppler shifted ,1; lower hybrid wave (u), - kV, . = ± u...satellite includes the relevant Doppler shifts since, in general, proton bulk flows are not directed parallel to the local magnetic field vector...theory of Section II predicts a relatively narrow frequency spectrum, the dominance of the Doppler shifting term k • Vp in Eq.(23)acts to

A Perceptual Pathway to Bias: Interracial Exposure Reduces Abrupt Shifts in Real-Time Race Perception That Predict Mixed-Race Bias.

PubMed

Freeman, Jonathan B; Pauker, Kristin; Sanchez, Diana T

2016-04-01

In two national samples, we examined the influence of interracial exposure in one's local environment on the dynamic process underlying race perception and its evaluative consequences. Using a mouse-tracking paradigm, we found in Study 1 that White individuals with low interracial exposure exhibited a unique effect of abrupt, unstable White-Black category shifting during real-time perception of mixed-race faces, consistent with predictions from a neural-dynamic model of social categorization and computational simulations. In Study 2, this shifting effect was replicated and shown to predict a trust bias against mixed-race individuals and to mediate the effect of low interracial exposure on that trust bias. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that interracial exposure shapes the dynamics through which racial categories activate and resolve during real-time perceptions, and these initial perceptual dynamics, in turn, may help drive evaluative biases against mixed-race individuals. Thus, lower-level perceptual aspects of encounters with racial ambiguity may serve as a foundation for mixed-race prejudice. © The Author(s) 2016.

A Positive Generation Effect on Memory for Auditory Context

PubMed Central

Overman, Amy A.; Richard, Alison G.; Stephens, Joseph D. W.

2016-01-01

Self-generation of information during memory encoding has large positive effects on subsequent memory for items, but mixed effects on memory for contextual information associated with items. A processing account of generation effects on context memory (Mulligan, 2004; Mulligan, Lozito, & Rosner, 2006) proposes that these effects depend on whether the generation task causes any shift in processing of the type of context features for which memory is being tested. Mulligan and colleagues have used this account to predict various negative effects of generation on context memory, but the account also predicts positive generation effects under certain circumstances. The present experiment provided a critical test of the processing account by examining how generation affected memory for auditory rather than visual context. Based on the processing account, we predicted that generation of rhyme words should enhance processing of auditory information associated with the words (i.e., voice gender) whereas generation of antonym words should have no effect. These predictions were confirmed, providing support to the processing account. PMID:27696145

A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.

PubMed

Cotto, Olivier; Wessely, Johannes; Georges, Damien; Klonner, Günther; Schmid, Max; Dullinger, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guillaume, Frédéric

2017-05-05

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.

Severity of injuries in different modes of transport, expressed with disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

PubMed

Tainio, Marko; Olkowicz, Dorota; Teresiński, Grzegorz; de Nazelle, Audrey; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J

2014-07-29

Health impact assessment (HIA) studies are increasingly predicting the health effects of mode shifts in traffic. The challenge for such studies is to combine the health effects, caused by injuries, with the disease driven health effects, and to express the change in the health with a common health indicator. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) combines years lived disabled or injured (YLD) and years of life lost (YLL) providing practical indicator to combine injuries with diseases. In this study, we estimate the average YLDs for one person injured in a transport crash to allow easy to use methods to predict health effects of transport injuries. We calculated YLDs and YLLs for transport fatalities and injuries based on the data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA). In STRADA, all the fatalities and most of the injuries in Sweden for 2007-2011 were recorded. The type of injury was recorded with the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) codes. In this study these AIS codes were aggregated to injury types, and YLDs were calculated for each victim by multiplying the type of injury with the disability weight and the average duration of that injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying the age of the victim with life expectancy of that age and gender. YLDs and YLLs were estimated separately for different gender, mode of transport and location of the crash. The average YLDs for injured person was 14.7 for lifelong injuries and 0.012 for temporal injuries. The average YLDs per injured person for lifelong injuries for pedestrians, cyclists and car occupants were 9.4, 12.8 and 18.4, YLDs, respectively. Lifelong injuries sustained in rural areas were on average 31% more serious than injuries in urban areas. The results show that shifting modes of transport will not only change the likelihood of injuries but also the severity of injuries sustained, if injured. The results of this study can be used to predict DALY changes in HIA studies that take into account mode shifts between different transport modes, and in other studies predicting the health effects of traffic injuries.

Derivation of a target concentration of Pb in soil based on elevation of adult blood pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, A.H.

1996-04-01

The increase in systolic blood pressure in males appears to be the most sensitive adult endpoint appropriate for deriving a health risk-based target level of lead (Ph) in soil. Because the response of blood pressure to blood Ph concentration (PbB) has no apparent threshold, traditional approaches based on the application of a Reference Dose (RfD) are not applicable. An alternative approach is presented based on a model which predicts the population shift in systolic blood pressure from ingestion of Pb contaminated soil as a simultaneous function of exposure to Pb in soil, the baseline distribution of blood Pb concentration inmore » the population and the baseline distribution of systolic pressure in the population. This model is analyzed using Monte Carlo analysis to predict the population distribution of systolic pressure resulting from Ph exposure. Based on this analysis, it is predicted that for adult males 18-65 years old, exposure to 1000 ppm Pb in soil will result in an increase of approximately 1 mm Hg systolic pressure, an increase in the incidence of systolic hypertension (i.e., systolic pressure >140 mm Hg) of approximately 1% and an increase in PbB of 1-3 {mu}g/dl. Based on the proposition that these adverse effects can be considered de minimis, 1000 ppm Ph in soil is proposed as a target soil concentration for adult exposure. Available data do not appear to be adequate to predict the newborn PbB level which would result from exposure to this soil level during pregnancy, 36 refs., 6 figs.« less

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

PubMed Central

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Jiguet, Frédéric

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is −13 per cent (from −97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa. PMID:19324660

Dopamine cells respond to predicted events during classical conditioning: evidence for eligibility traces in the reward-learning network.

PubMed

Pan, Wei-Xing; Schmidt, Robert; Wickens, Jeffery R; Hyland, Brian I

2005-06-29

Behavioral conditioning of cue-reward pairing results in a shift of midbrain dopamine (DA) cell activity from responding to the reward to responding to the predictive cue. However, the precise time course and mechanism underlying this shift remain unclear. Here, we report a combined single-unit recording and temporal difference (TD) modeling approach to this question. The data from recordings in conscious rats showed that DA cells retain responses to predicted reward after responses to conditioned cues have developed, at least early in training. This contrasts with previous TD models that predict a gradual stepwise shift in latency with responses to rewards lost before responses develop to the conditioned cue. By exploring the TD parameter space, we demonstrate that the persistent reward responses of DA cells during conditioning are only accurately replicated by a TD model with long-lasting eligibility traces (nonzero values for the parameter lambda) and low learning rate (alpha). These physiological constraints for TD parameters suggest that eligibility traces and low per-trial rates of plastic modification may be essential features of neural circuits for reward learning in the brain. Such properties enable rapid but stable initiation of learning when the number of stimulus-reward pairings is limited, conferring significant adaptive advantages in real-world environments.

Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.

PubMed

Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M

2009-01-01

Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.

A unifying theory for top-heavy ecosystem structure in the ocean.

PubMed

Woodson, C Brock; Schramski, John R; Joye, Samantha B

2018-01-02

Size generally dictates metabolic requirements, trophic level, and consequently, ecosystem structure, where inefficient energy transfer leads to bottom-heavy ecosystem structure and biomass decreases as individual size (or trophic level) increases. However, many animals deviate from simple size-based predictions by either adopting generalist predatory behavior, or feeding lower in the trophic web than predicted from their size. Here we show that generalist predatory behavior and lower trophic feeding at large body size increase overall biomass and shift ecosystems from a bottom-heavy pyramid to a top-heavy hourglass shape, with the most biomass accounted for by the largest animals. These effects could be especially dramatic in the ocean, where primary producers are the smallest components of the ecosystem. This approach makes it possible to explore and predict, in the past and in the future, the structure of ocean ecosystems without biomass extraction and other impacts.

Design and Development of ChemInfoCloud: An Integrated Cloud Enabled Platform for Virtual Screening.

PubMed

Karthikeyan, Muthukumarasamy; Pandit, Deepak; Bhavasar, Arvind; Vyas, Renu

2015-01-01

The power of cloud computing and distributed computing has been harnessed to handle vast and heterogeneous data required to be processed in any virtual screening protocol. A cloud computing platorm ChemInfoCloud was built and integrated with several chemoinformatics and bioinformatics tools. The robust engine performs the core chemoinformatics tasks of lead generation, lead optimisation and property prediction in a fast and efficient manner. It has also been provided with some of the bioinformatics functionalities including sequence alignment, active site pose prediction and protein ligand docking. Text mining, NMR chemical shift (1H, 13C) prediction and reaction fingerprint generation modules for efficient lead discovery are also implemented in this platform. We have developed an integrated problem solving cloud environment for virtual screening studies that also provides workflow management, better usability and interaction with end users using container based virtualization, OpenVz.

Prediction of unsuppressed jet engine exhaust noise in flight from static data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, J. R.

1980-01-01

A methodology developed for predicting in-flight exhaust noise from static data is presented and compared with experimental data for several unsuppressed turbojet engines. For each engine, static data over a range of jet velocities are compared with the predicted jet mixing noise and shock-cell noise. The static engine noise over and above the jet and shock noises is identified as excess noise. The excess noise data are then empirically correlated to smooth the spectral and directivity relations and account for variations in test conditions. This excess noise is then projected to flight based on the assumption that the only effects of flight are a Doppler frequency shift and a level change given by 40 log (1 - m sub 0 cos theta), where M sub 0 is the flight Mach number and theta is the observer angle relative to the jet axis.

The theory of an agnosic right shift gene in schizophrenia and autism.

PubMed

Annett, M

1999-10-19

The right shift (RS) theory (Annett, M., 1972. The distribution of manual asymmetry. Br. J. Psychol. 63, 343-358; Annett, M., 1985. Left, Right, Hand and Brain: The Right Shift Theory. Lawrence Erlbaum, London) suggests that the typical pattern of human cerebral and manual asymmetries depends on a single gene (RS+) which impairs speech-related cortex of the right hemisphere. The theory offers solutions to several puzzles, including the distribution of handedness in families (Annett, M., 1978. A Single Gene Explanation of Right and Left Handedness and Brainedness. Lanchester Polytechnic, Coventry; Annett, M., 1996. In defense of the right shift theory. Percept. Motor Skills 82, 115-137), relations between handedness and cerebral speech laterality (Annett, M., 1975. Hand preference and the laterality of cerebral speech. Cortex 11, 305-328; Annett, M., Alexander, M.P., 1996. Atypical cerebral dominance: predictions and tests of the right shift theory. Neuropsychologia 34, 1215-1227) and handedness and dyslexia (Annett, M. et al., 1996. Types of dyslexia and the shift to dextrality. J. Child Psychol. Psychiatry 37, 167-180). If Crow's (Crow, T.J. et al., 1989. Schizophrenia as an anomaly of development of cerebral asymmetry. A postmortem study and a proposal concerning the genetic basis of the disease. Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 46, 1145-1150; Crow, T.J., 1997. Is schizophrenia the price that Homo sapiens pays for language? Schizophr. Res. 28, 127-141) theory that schizophrenia is due to an anomaly of cerebral dominance is correct, and if the RS theory is correct, schizophrenia could be due to an anomaly of the RS+ gene. If the RS+ gene were at risk for a mutation which caused a loss of directional coding, the mutant could be described as 'agnosic' for left and right. Such a gene would impair either hemisphere at random. When paired with another RS+ gene, both hemispheres would be impaired in 50% of cases. The other 50% and people in whom the agnosic gene is paired with an RS-allele (neutral for asymmetry and not giving hemisphere impairment) would have one unaffected hemisphere and, thus, normal development. Quantitative predictions based on the RS genetic theory as previously developed, plus an agnosic mutant with frequency required to give schizophrenia in 1% of the population, are consistent with estimates of concordance for schizophrenia in relatives. Homozygotes of the agnosic mutant would occur at about the rate estimated for autism.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model.

PubMed

Fernandes, Jose A; Cheung, William W L; Jennings, Simon; Butenschön, Momme; de Mora, Lee; Frölicher, Thomas L; Barange, Manuel; Grant, Alastair

2013-08-01

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do neotropical migrant butterflies navigate using a solar compass?

PubMed

Oliveira; Srygley; Dudley

1998-12-01

Many tropical butterfly species are well-known for their migratory behaviour. Although these insects can maintain a constant direction throughout the day, the physiological mechanisms of orientation are unknown. It has been argued that tropical migrant butterflies must use a time-compensated sun compass to accomplish their journey, but the crucial experimental manipulations to test this hypothesis have not been conducted. This study reports the results of clock-shift experiments performed with two species of migrating butterflies (Pieridae: Aphrissa statira and Phoebis argante) captured during flight across Lake Gatun, Panama. The observed constant flight bearing of natural controls suggests that these species are capable of performing time-compensated celestial navigation. Our clock-shift experiments suggest that a sun compass is involved. Individuals submitted to a 4 h advance shift took significantly different mean orientations on release compared with control butterflies. The direction of this difference was consistent with the use of a sun compass. The magnitude was approximately half the predicted value if the vanishing bearing of released butterflies was used as the variable to evaluate the effect of time-shifting and approximately three-quarters of that predicted if the estimated heading was the variable used. Mean vanishing bearings of control and experimental butterflies did not correspond to predicted values. This difference can be attributed largely to the combined effects of wind and handling.

Charged Particle Detection: Potential of Love Wave Acoustic Devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedrick, Michael; Tittmann, Bernhard

2006-03-01

An investigation of the dependence of film density on group and phase velocities in a Love Wave Device shows potential for acoustic-based charged particle detection (CPD). Exposure of an ion sensitive photoresist to charged particles causes localized changes in density through either scission or cross-linking. A theoretical model was developed to study ion fluence effects on Love Wave sensitivity based on: ion energy, effective density changes, layer thickness and mode selection. The model is based on a Poly(Methyl Methacralate) (PMMA) film deposited on a Quartz substrate. The effect of Helium ion fluence on the properties of PMMA has previously been studied. These guidelines were used as an initial basis for the prediction of helium ion detection in a PMMA layer. Procedures for experimental characterization of ion effects on the material properties of PMMA are reviewed. Techniques for experimental validation of the predicted velocity shifts are discussed. A Love Wave Device for CPD could potentially provide a cost-effective alternative to semiconductor or photo-based counterparts. The potential for monitoring ion implantation effects on material properties is also discussed.

Influence of fiber bending on wavelength demodulation of fiber-optic Fabry-Perot interferometric sensors.

PubMed

Liu, Guigen; Sheng, Qiwen; Hou, Weilin; Han, Ming

2016-11-14

In practical applications of fiber optic sensors based on Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPIs), the lead-in optical fiber often experiences dynamic or static bending due to environmental perturbations or limited installation space. Bending introduces wavelength-dependent losses to the sensors, which can cause erroneous readings for sensors based on wavelength demodulation interrogation. Here, we investigate the bending-induced wavelength shift (BIWS) to sensors based on FPIs. Partially explicit expressions of BIWSs for the reflection fringe peaks and valleys have been derived for sensors based on low-finesse FPI. The theoretical model predicts these findings: 1) provided that a fringe peak experiences the same modulation slope by bending losses with a fringe valley, BIWSs for the peak and valley have opposite signs and the BIWS for the valley has a smaller absolute value; 2) BIWS is a linear function of the length of the bending section; 3) a FPI with higher visibility and longer optical path length is more resistant to the influence of bending. Experiments have been carried out and the results agree well with the theoretical predictions.

Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

2009-08-01

Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

Determination of the charge of relativistic heavy nuclei from emulsion tracks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, S. H., Jr.; Eby, P. B.

1971-01-01

The number of delta rays with energies between 50 and 150 keV that are produced by heavy nuclei in emulsions is calculated. The Z(2) dependence predicted by the first Born approximation is corrected by a direct calculation of the Mott exact phase-shift scattering cross section. Comparisons are made with corrections predicted by the second Born approximation. When the phase-shift results are applied to the problem of charge identification, corrections of up to 4 units of charge for 1.457-GeV/nucleon nuclei with charge Z = 75 are found.

Modelling attending physician productivity in the emergency department: a multicentre study

PubMed Central

Davis, Samuel; Wilker, Elissa H; Wong, Matthew L; Litvak, Ori; Traub, Stephen J; Nathanson, Larry A; Sanchez, Leon D

2018-01-01

Objectives Emergency physician productivity, often defined as new patients evaluated per hour, is essential to planning clinical operations. Prior research in this area considered this a static quantity; however, our group’s study of resident physicians demonstrated significant decreases in hourly productivity throughout shifts. We now examine attending physicians’ productivity to determine if it is also dynamic. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study, conducted from 2014 to 2016 across three community hospitals in the north-eastern USA, with different schedules and coverage. Timestamps of all patient encounters were automatically logged by the sites’ electronic health record. Generalised estimating equations were constructed to predict productivity in terms of new patients per shift hour. Results 207 169 patients were seen by 64 physicians over 2 years, comprising 9822 physician shifts. Physicians saw an average of 15.0 (SD 4.7), 20.9 (SD 6.4) and 13.2 (SD 3.8) patients per shift at the three sites, with 2.97 (SD 0.22), 2.95 (SD 0.24) and 2.17 (SD 0.09) in the first hour. Across all sites, physicians saw significantly fewer new patients after the first hour, with more gradual decreases subsequently. Additional patient arrivals were associated with greater productivity; however, this attenuates substantially late in the shift. The presence of other physicians was also associated with slightly decreased productivity. Conclusions Physician productivity over a single shift follows a predictable pattern that decreases significantly on an hourly basis, even if there are new patients to be seen. Estimating productivity as a simple average substantially underestimates physicians’ capacity early in a shift and overestimates it later. This pattern of productivity should be factored into hospitals’ staffing plans, with shifts aligned to start with the greatest volumes of patient arrivals. PMID:29545355

NMR shielding calculations across the periodic table: diamagnetic uranium compounds. 2. Ligand and metal NMR.

PubMed

Schreckenbach, Georg

2002-12-16

In this and a previous article (J. Phys. Chem. A 2000, 104, 8244), the range of application for relativistic density functional theory (DFT) is extended to the calculation of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) shieldings and chemical shifts in diamagnetic actinide compounds. Two relativistic DFT methods are used, ZORA ("zeroth-order regular approximation") and the quasirelativistic (QR) method. In the given second paper, NMR shieldings and chemical shifts are calculated and discussed for a wide range of compounds. The molecules studied comprise uranyl complexes, [UO(2)L(n)](+/-)(q); UF(6); inorganic UF(6) derivatives, UF(6-n)Cl(n), n = 0-6; and organometallic UF(6) derivatives, UF(6-n)(OCH(3))(n), n = 0-5. Uranyl complexes include [UO(2)F(4)](2-), [UO(2)Cl(4)](2-), [UO(2)(OH)(4)](2-), [UO(2)(CO(3))(3)](4-), and [UO(2)(H(2)O)(5)](2+). For the ligand NMR, moderate (e.g., (19)F NMR chemical shifts in UF(6-n)Cl(n)) to excellent agreement [e.g., (19)F chemical shift tensor in UF(6) or (1)H NMR in UF(6-n)(OCH(3))(n)] has been found between theory and experiment. The methods have been used to calculate the experimentally unknown (235)U NMR chemical shifts. A large chemical shift range of at least 21,000 ppm has been predicted for the (235)U nucleus. ZORA spin-orbit appears to be the most accurate method for predicting actinide metal chemical shifts. Trends in the (235)U NMR chemical shifts of UF(6-n)L(n) molecules are analyzed and explained in terms of the calculated electronic structure. It is argued that the energy separation and interaction between occupied and virtual orbitals with f-character are the determining factors.

Pyrosequencing-based assessment of microbial community shifts in leachate from animal carcass burial lysimeter.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Young; Seo, Jiyoung; Kim, Tae-Hun; Shim, Bomi; Cha, Seok Mun; Yu, Seungho

2017-06-01

This study examined the use of microbial community structure as a bio-indicator of decomposition levels. High-throughput pyrosequencing technology was used to assess the shift in microbial community of leachate from animal carcass lysimeter. The leachate samples were collected monthly for one year and a total of 164,639 pyrosequencing reads were obtained and used in the taxonomic classification and operational taxonomy units (OTUs) distribution analysis based on sequence similarity. Our results show considerable changes in the phylum-level bacterial composition, suggesting that the microbial community is a sensitive parameter affected by the burial environment. The phylum classification results showed that Proteobacteria (Pseudomonas) were the most influential taxa in earlier decomposition stage whereas Firmicutes (Clostridium, Sporanaerobacter, and Peptostreptococcus) were dominant in later stage under anaerobic conditions. The result of this study can provide useful information on a time series of leachate profiles of microbial community structures and suggest patterns of microbial diversity in livestock burial sites. In addition, this result can be applicable to predict the decomposition stages under clay loam based soil conditions of animal livestock. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Variation in the Spatial Distribution of Basking Sharks (Cetorhinus maximus) in the Lower Bay of Fundy, Canada

PubMed Central

Siders, Zachary A.; Westgate, Andrew J.; Johnston, David W.; Murison, Laurie D.; Koopman, Heather N.

2013-01-01

The local distribution of basking sharks in the Bay of Fundy (BoF) is unknown despite frequent occurrences in the area from May to November. Defining this species’ spatial habitat use is critical for accurately assessing its Special Concern conservation status in Atlantic Canada. We developed maximum entropy distribution models for the lower BoF and the northeast Gulf of Maine (GoM) to describe spatiotemporal variation in habitat use of basking sharks. Under the Maxent framework, we assessed model responses and distribution shifts in relation to known migratory behavior and local prey dynamics. We used 10 years (2002-2011) of basking shark surface sightings from July-October acquired during boat-based surveys in relation to chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, bathymetric features, and distance to seafloor contours to assess habitat suitability. Maximum entropy estimations were selected based on AICc criterion and used to predict habitat utilizing three model-fitting routines as well as converted to binary suitable/non-suitable habitat using the maximum sensitivity and specificity threshold. All models predicted habitat better than random (AUC values >0.796). From July-September, a majority of habitat was in the BoF, in waters >100 m deep, and in the Grand Manan Basin. In October, a majority of the habitat shifted southward into the GoM and to areas >200 m deep. Model responses suggest that suitable habitat from July - October is dependent on a mix of distance to the 0, 100, 150, and 200 m contours but in some models on sea surface temperature (July) and chlorophyll-a (August and September). Our results reveal temporally dynamic habitat use of basking sharks within the BoF and GoM. The relative importance of predictor variables suggests that prey dynamics constrained the species distribution in the BoF. Also, suitable habitat shifted minimally from July-September providing opportunities to conserve the species during peak abundance in the region. PMID:24324747

Infrared Multiphoton Dissociation Spectroscopy of a Gas-Phase Complex of Uranyl and 3-Oxa-Glutaramide: An Extreme Red-Shift of the [O=U=O]²⁺ Asymmetric Stretch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gibson, John K.; Hu, Hanshi; Van Stipdonk, Michael J.

2015-04-09

The gas-phase complex UO₂(TMOGA)₂²⁺ (TMOGA = tetramethyl-3-oxa-glutaramide) prepared by electrospray ionization was characterized by infrared multiphoton dissociation (IRMPD) spectroscopy. The IRMPD spectrum from 700–1800 cm⁻¹ was interpreted using a computational study based on density functional theory. The predicted vibrational frequencies are in good agreement with the measured values, with an average deviation of only 8 cm⁻¹ (<1%) and a maximum deviation of 21 cm⁻¹ (<2%). The only IR peak assigned to the linear uranyl moiety was the asymmetric ν₃ mode, which appeared at 965 cm⁻¹ and was predicted by DFT as 953 cm⁻¹. This ν₃ frequency is red-shifted relative tomore » bare uranyl, UO₂²⁺, by ca. 150 cm⁻¹ due to electron donation from the TMOGA ligands. Based on the degree of red-shifting, it is inferred that two TMOGA oxygen-donor ligands have a greater effective gas basicity than the four monodentate acetone ligands in UO₂(acetone)₄²⁺. The uranyl ν₃ frequency was also computed for uranyl coordinated by two TMGA ligands, in which the central Oether of TMOGA has been replaced by CH₂. The computed ν₃ for UO₂(TMGA)₂²⁺, 950 cm⁻¹, is essentially the same as that for UO₂(TMOGA)₂²⁺, suggesting that electron donation to uranyl from the Oether of TMOGA is minor. The computed ν₃ asymmetric stretching frequencies for the three actinyl complexes, UO₂(TMOGA)₂²⁺, NpO₂(TMOGA)₂²⁺ and PuO₂(TMOGA)₂²⁺, are comparable. This similarity is discussed in the context of the relationship between ν₃ and intrinsic actinide-oxygen bond energies in actinyl complexes.« less

Esr Spectra of Alkali-Metal Atoms on Helium Nanodroplets: a Theoretical Model for the Prediction of Helium Induced Hyperfine Structure Shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Reas W.; Filatov, Michael; Ernst, Wolfgang E.

2013-06-01

We predict He-droplet-induced changes of the isotropic HFS constant a_{HFS} of the alkali-metal atoms M = Li, Na, K and Rb on the basis of a model description. Optically detected electron spin resonance spectroscopy has allowed high resolution measurements that show the influence of the helium droplet and its size on the unpaired electron spin density at the alkali nucleus. Our theoretical approach to describe this dependence is based on a combination of two well established techniques: Results of relativistic coupled-cluster calculations on the alkali-He dimers (energy and HFS constant as functions of the binding length) are mapped onto the doped-droplet-situation with the help of helium-density functional theory. We simulate doped droplets He_{N} with N ranging from 50 to 10000, using the diatomic alkali-He-potential energy curves as input. From the obtained density profiles we evaluate average distances between the dopant atom and its direct helium neighborhood. The distances are then set in relation to the variation of the HFS constant with binding length in the simplified alkali-He-dimer model picture. This method yields reliable relative shifts but involves a systematic absolute error. Hence, the absolute values of the shifts are tied to one experimentally determined HFS constant for ^{85}Rb-He_{N = 2000}. With this parameter choice we obtain results in good agreement with the available experimental data for Rb and K^{a,b} confirming the predicted 1/N trend of the functional dependence^{c}. M. Koch, G. Auböck, C. Callegari, and W. E. Ernst, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 035302-1-4 (2009) M. Koch, C. Callegari, and W. E. Ernst, Mol. Phys. 108 (7), 1005-1011 (2010) A. W. Hauser, T. Gruber, M. Filatov, and W. E. Ernst, ChemPhysChem (2013) online DOI: 10.1002/cphc.201200697

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Niche conservatism and the invasive potential of the wild boar.

PubMed

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Ribeiro, Bruno R; Hayward, Matt Warrington; Paglia, Adriano; Passamani, Marcelo; Loyola, Rafael

2017-09-01

Niche conservatism, i.e. the retention of a species' fundamental niche through evolutionary time, is cornerstone for biological invasion assessments. The fact that species tend to maintain their original climate niche allows predictive maps of invasion risk to anticipate potential invadable areas. Unravelling the mechanisms driving niche shifts can shed light on the management of invasive species. Here, we assessed niche shifts in one of the world's worst invasive species: the wild boar Sus scrofa. We also predicted potential invadable areas based on an ensemble of three ecological niche modelling methods, and evaluated the performance of models calibrated with native vs. pooled (native plus invaded) species records. By disentangling the drivers of change on the exotic wild boar population's niches, we found strong evidence for niche conservatism during biological invasion. Ecological niche models calibrated with both native and pooled range records predicted convergent areas. Also, observed niche shifts are mostly explained by niche unfilling, i.e. there are unoccupied areas in the exotic range where climate is analogous to the native range. Niche unfilling is expected as result of recent colonization and ongoing dispersal, and was potentially stronger for the Neotropics, where a recent wave of introductions for pig-farming and game-hunting has led to high wild boar population growth rates. The invasive potential of wild boar in the Neotropics is probably higher than in other regions, which has profound management implications if we are to prevent their invasion into species-rich areas, such as Amazonia, coupled with expansion of African swine fever and possibly great economic losses. Although the originally Eurasian-wide distribution suggests a pre-adaptation to a wide array of climates, the wild boar world-wide invasion does not exhibit evidence of niche evolution. The invasive potential of the wild boar therefore probably lies on the reproductive, dietary and morphological characteristics of this species, coupled with behavioural thermoregulation. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Gravitational red shift tests and a spectroscopy in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoo, Hiromitsu

Japanese astronomers and physicians tried to test the Einstein theory by gravitational red shift tests at 1920's. Spectroscopists in Japan contributed to Stark broadening of spectrum lines. Rikiti Kinoshita (1877 - 1935) probably started experiments according to Voigt's prediction earlier than Stark. Tokyo Astronomical Observatory constructed and used another Einstein Tower in Mitaka.

From Prioritizing Objects to Prioritizing Cues: A Developmental Shift for Cognitive Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chevalier, Nicolas; Dauvier, Bruno; Blaye, Agnès

2018-01-01

Emerging cognitive control supports increasingly adaptive behaviors and predicts life success, while low cognitive control is a major risk factor during childhood. It is therefore essential to understand how it develops. The present study provides evidence for an age-related shift in the type of information that children prioritize in their…

Stark parameter dependence of the rest core charge of the emitters for multiply charged ions spectral lines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Šćepanović, M., E-mail: mara.scepanovic@gmail.com; Purić, J.

2016-03-25

Stark width and shift simultaneous dependence on the upper level ionization potential and rest core charge of the emitter has been evaluated and discussed. It has been verified that the found relations, connecting Stark broadening parameters with upper level ionization potential and rest core charge of the emitters for particular electron temperature and density, can be used for prediction of Stark line width and shift data in case of ions for which observed data, or more detailed calculations, are not yet available. Stark widths and shifts published data are used to demonstrate the existence of other kinds of regularities withinmore » similar spectra of different elements and their ionization stages. The emphasis is on the Stark parameter dependence on the upper level ionization potential and on the rest core charge for the lines from similar spectra of multiply charged ions. The found relations connecting Stark widths and shift parameters with upper level ionization potential, rest core charge and electron temperature were used for a prediction of new Stark broadening data, thus avoiding much more complicated procedures.« less

Leatherbacks swimming in silico: modeling and verifying their momentum and heat balance using computational fluid dynamics.

PubMed

Dudley, Peter N; Bonazza, Riccardo; Jones, T Todd; Wyneken, Jeanette; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

As global temperatures increase throughout the coming decades, species ranges will shift. New combinations of abiotic conditions will make predicting these range shifts difficult. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling places bounds on an animal's niche through analyzing the animal's physical interactions with the environment. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling is flexible enough to accommodate these new combinations of abiotic conditions. However, this approach is difficult to implement for aquatic species because of complex interactions among thrust, metabolic rate and heat transfer. We use contemporary computational fluid dynamic techniques to overcome these difficulties. We model the complex 3D motion of a swimming neonate and juvenile leatherback sea turtle to find power and heat transfer rates during the stroke. We combine the results from these simulations and a numerical model to accurately predict the core temperature of a swimming leatherback. These results are the first steps in developing a highly accurate mechanistic niche model, which can assists paleontologist in understanding biogeographic shifts as well as aid contemporary species managers about potential range shifts over the coming decades.

Reverse-translational biomarker validation of Abnormal Repetitive Behaviors in mice: an illustration of the 4P's modeling approach

PubMed Central

Garner, Joseph P.; Thogerson, Collette M.; Dufour, Brett D.; Würbel, Hanno; Murray, James D.; Mench, Joy A.

2011-01-01

The NIMH's new strategic plan, with its emphasis on the “4P's” (Prediction, Preemption, Personalization, & Populations) and biomarker-based medicine requires a radical shift in animal modeling methodology. In particular 4P's models will be non-determinant (i.e. disease severity will depend on secondary environmental and genetic factors); and validated by reverse-translation of animal homologues to human biomarkers. A powerful consequence of the biomarker approach is that different closely-related disorders have a unique fingerprint of biomarkers. Animals can be validated as a highly-specific model of a single disorder by matching this `fingerprint'; or as a model of a symptom seen in multiple disorders by matching common biomarkers. Here we illustrate this approach with two Abnormal Repetitive Behaviors (ARBs) in mice: stereotypies; and barbering (hair pulling). We developed animal versions of the neuropsychological biomarkers that distinguish human ARBs, and tested the fingerprint of the different mouse ARBs. As predicted, the two mouse ARBs were associated with different biomarkers. Both barbering and stereotypy could be discounted as models of OCD (even though they are widely used as such), due to the absence of limbic biomarkers which are characteristic of OCD and hence are necessary for a valid model. Conversely barbering matched the fingerprint of trichotillomania (i.e. selective deficits in set-shifting), suggesting it may be a highly specific model of this disorder. In contrast stereotypies were correlated only with a biomarker (deficits in response shifting) correlated with stereotypies in multiple disorders, suggesting that animal stereotypies model stereotypies in multiple disorders. PMID:21219937

Direct Simulation of Magnetic Resonance Relaxation Rates and Line Shapes from Molecular Trajectories

PubMed Central

Rangel, David P.; Baveye, Philippe C.; Robinson, Bruce H.

2012-01-01

We simulate spin relaxation processes, which may be measured by either continuous wave or pulsed magnetic resonance techniques, using trajectory-based simulation methodologies. The spin–lattice relaxation rates are extracted numerically from the relaxation simulations. The rates obtained from the numerical fitting of the relaxation curves are compared to those obtained by direct simulation from the relaxation Bloch–Wangsness–Abragam– Redfield theory (BWART). We have restricted our study to anisotropic rigid-body rotational processes, and to the chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) and a single spin–spin dipolar (END) coupling mechanisms. Examples using electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) nitroxide and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) deuterium quadrupolar systems are provided. The objective is to compare those rates obtained by numerical simulations with the rates obtained by BWART. There is excellent agreement between the simulated and BWART rates for a Hamiltonian describing a single spin (an electron) interacting with the bath through the chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) mechanism undergoing anisotropic rotational diffusion. In contrast, when the Hamiltonian contains both the chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) and the spin–spin dipolar (END) mechanisms, the decay rate of a single exponential fit of the simulated spin–lattice relaxation rate is up to a factor of 0.2 smaller than that predicted by BWART. When the relaxation curves are fit to a double exponential, the slow and fast rates extracted from the decay curves bound the BWART prediction. An extended BWART theory, in the literature, includes the need for multiple relaxation rates and indicates that the multiexponential decay is due to the combined effects of direct and cross-relaxation mechanisms. PMID:22540276

Spatial and thickness dependence of coupling interaction of surface states and influence on transport and optical properties of few-layer Bi2Se3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhongjun; Chen, Shi; Sun, Jiuyu; Li, Xingxing; Qiu, Huaili; Yang, Jinlong

2018-02-01

Coupling interaction between the bottom and top surface electronic states and the influence on transport and optical properties of Bi2Se3 thin films with 1-8 quintuple layers (QLs) have been investigated by first principles calculations. Obvious spatial and thickness dependences of coupling interaction are found by analyzing hybridization of two surface states. In the thin film with a certain thickness, from the outer to inner atomic layers, the coupling interaction exhibits an increasing trend. On the other hand, as thickness increases, the coupling interaction shows a disproportionate decrease trend. Moreover, the system with 3 QLs exhibits stronger interaction than that with 2 QLs. The presence of coupling interaction would suppress destructive interference of surface states and enhance resistance in various degrees. In view of the inversely proportional relation to transport channel width, the resistance of thin films should show disproportionate thickness dependence. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with the transport measurements at low temperature. Furthermore, the optical properties also exhibit obvious thickness dependence. Especially as the thickness increases, the coupling interaction results in red and blue shifts of the multiple-peak structures in low and high energy regions of imaginary dielectric function, respectively. The red shift trend is in agreement with the recent experimental observation and the blue shift is firstly predicted by the present calculation. The present results give a concrete understanding of transport and optical properties in devices based on Bi2Se3 thin films with few QLs.

Water level changes affect carbon turnover and microbial community composition in lake sediments.

PubMed

Weise, Lukas; Ulrich, Andreas; Moreano, Matilde; Gessler, Arthur; Kayler, Zachary E; Steger, Kristin; Zeller, Bernd; Rudolph, Kristin; Knezevic-Jaric, Jelena; Premke, Katrin

2016-05-01

Due to climate change, many lakes in Europe will be subject to higher variability of hydrological characteristics in their littoral zones. These different hydrological regimes might affect the use of allochthonous and autochthonous carbon sources. We used sandy sediment microcosms to examine the effects of different hydrological regimes (wet, desiccating, and wet-desiccation cycles) on carbon turnover. (13)C-labelled particulate organic carbon was used to trace and estimate carbon uptake into bacterial biomass (via phospholipid fatty acids) and respiration. Microbial community changes were monitored by combining DNA- and RNA-based real-time PCR quantification and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of 16S rRNA. The shifting hydrological regimes in the sediment primarily caused two linked microbial effects: changes in the use of available organic carbon and community composition changes. Drying sediments yielded the highest CO2 emission rates, whereas hydrological shifts increased the uptake of allochthonous organic carbon for respiration. T-RFLP patterns demonstrated that only the most extreme hydrological changes induced a significant shift in the active and total bacterial communities. As current scenarios of climate change predict an increase of drought events, frequent variations of the hydrological regimes of many lake littoral zones in central Europe are anticipated. Based on the results of our study, this phenomenon may increase the intensity and amplitude in rates of allochthonous organic carbon uptake and CO2 emissions. © FEMS 2016.

Water level changes affect carbon turnover and microbial community composition in lake sediments

PubMed Central

Weise, Lukas; Ulrich, Andreas; Moreano, Matilde; Gessler, Arthur; E. Kayler, Zachary; Steger, Kristin; Zeller, Bernd; Rudolph, Kristin; Knezevic-Jaric, Jelena; Premke, Katrin

2016-01-01

Due to climate change, many lakes in Europe will be subject to higher variability of hydrological characteristics in their littoral zones. These different hydrological regimes might affect the use of allochthonous and autochthonous carbon sources. We used sandy sediment microcosms to examine the effects of different hydrological regimes (wet, desiccating, and wet-desiccation cycles) on carbon turnover. 13C-labelled particulate organic carbon was used to trace and estimate carbon uptake into bacterial biomass (via phospholipid fatty acids) and respiration. Microbial community changes were monitored by combining DNA- and RNA-based real-time PCR quantification and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis of 16S rRNA. The shifting hydrological regimes in the sediment primarily caused two linked microbial effects: changes in the use of available organic carbon and community composition changes. Drying sediments yielded the highest CO2 emission rates, whereas hydrological shifts increased the uptake of allochthonous organic carbon for respiration. T-RFLP patterns demonstrated that only the most extreme hydrological changes induced a significant shift in the active and total bacterial communities. As current scenarios of climate change predict an increase of drought events, frequent variations of the hydrological regimes of many lake littoral zones in central Europe are anticipated. Based on the results of our study, this phenomenon may increase the intensity and amplitude in rates of allochthonous organic carbon uptake and CO2 emissions. PMID:26902802

Nonlinear wavenumber shift of large amplitude Langmuir waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Dehui, E-mail: dhli@ipp.ac.cn; Wang, Shaojie

2016-07-15

Nonlinear particle-in-cell simulation is carried out to investigate the nonlinear behavior of the Langmuir wave launched with a fixed frequency in a uniform plasma. It is found that in the strong driving case, the launched wave propagates in a phase velocity larger than that predicted by the linear theory; there appears a nonlinear down-shift of wavenumber. The phase velocity of the nonlinear wave and the down-shift of the wavenumber are demonstrated to be determined by the velocity of nonlinearly accelerated resonant electrons.

Shifting carbon flow from roots into associated microbial communities in response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Drigo, Barbara; Pijl, Agata S; Duyts, Henk; Kielak, Anna M; Gamper, Hannes A; Houtekamer, Marco J; Boschker, Henricus T S; Bodelier, Paul L E; Whiteley, Andrew S; van Veen, Johannes A; Kowalchuk, George A

2010-06-15

Rising atmospheric CO(2) levels are predicted to have major consequences on carbon cycling and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increased photosynthetic activity is expected, especially for C-3 plants, thereby influencing vegetation dynamics; however, little is known about the path of fixed carbon into soil-borne communities and resulting feedbacks on ecosystem function. Here, we examine how arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) act as a major conduit in the transfer of carbon between plants and soil and how elevated atmospheric CO(2) modulates the belowground translocation pathway of plant-fixed carbon. Shifts in active AMF species under elevated atmospheric CO(2) conditions are coupled to changes within active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities. Thus, as opposed to simply increasing the activity of soil-borne microbes through enhanced rhizodeposition, elevated atmospheric CO(2) clearly evokes the emergence of distinct opportunistic plant-associated microbial communities. Analyses involving RNA-based stable isotope probing, neutral/phosphate lipid fatty acids stable isotope probing, community fingerprinting, and real-time PCR allowed us to trace plant-fixed carbon to the affected soil-borne microorganisms. Based on our data, we present a conceptual model in which plant-assimilated carbon is rapidly transferred to AMF, followed by a slower release from AMF to the bacterial and fungal populations well-adapted to the prevailing (myco-)rhizosphere conditions. This model provides a general framework for reappraising carbon-flow paths in soils, facilitating predictions of future interactions between rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and terrestrial ecosystems.

Sum-over-states density functional perturbation theory: Prediction of reliable 13C, 15N, and 17O nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Lars; Cremer, Dieter

1996-11-01

Sum-over-states density functional perturbation theory (SOS-DFPT) has been used to calculate 13C, 15N, and 17O NMR chemical shifts of 20 molecules, for which accurate experimental gas-phase values are available. Compared to Hartree-Fock (HF), SOS-DFPT leads to improved chemical shift values and approaches the degree of accuracy obtained with second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2). This is particularly true in the case of 15N chemical shifts where SOS-DFPT performs even better than MP2. Additional improvements of SOS-DFPT chemical shifts can be obtained by empirically correcting diamagnetic and paramagnetic contributions to compensate for deficiencies which are typical of DFT.

Organic-matter loading determines regime shifts and alternative states in an aquatic ecosystem.

PubMed

Sirota, Jennie; Baiser, Benjamin; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2013-05-07

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to "tipping points," rapid transitions between alternative states ("regime shifts") in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ([O2]) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of [O2] were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the [O2] time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate [O2] time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ~45 h as [O2] was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in [O2] dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes.

Identification of helix capping and β-turn motifs from NMR chemical shifts

PubMed Central

Shen, Yang; Bax, Ad

2012-01-01

We present an empirical method for identification of distinct structural motifs in proteins on the basis of experimentally determined backbone and 13Cβ chemical shifts. Elements identified include the N-terminal and C-terminal helix capping motifs and five types of β-turns: I, II, I′, II′ and VIII. Using a database of proteins of known structure, the NMR chemical shifts, together with the PDB-extracted amino acid preference of the helix capping and β-turn motifs are used as input data for training an artificial neural network algorithm, which outputs the statistical probability of finding each motif at any given position in the protein. The trained neural networks, contained in the MICS (motif identification from chemical shifts) program, also provide a confidence level for each of their predictions, and values ranging from ca 0.7–0.9 for the Matthews correlation coefficient of its predictions far exceed that attainable by sequence analysis. MICS is anticipated to be useful both in the conventional NMR structure determination process and for enhancing on-going efforts to determine protein structures solely on the basis of chemical shift information, where it can aid in identifying protein database fragments suitable for use in building such structures. PMID:22314702

Hyperpolarizability and Operational Magic Wavelength in an Optical Lattice Clock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. C.; Phillips, N. B.; Beloy, K.; McGrew, W. F.; Schioppo, M.; Fasano, R. J.; Milani, G.; Zhang, X.; Hinkley, N.; Leopardi, H.; Yoon, T. H.; Nicolodi, D.; Fortier, T. M.; Ludlow, A. D.

2017-12-01

Optical clocks benefit from tight atomic confinement enabling extended interrogation times as well as Doppler- and recoil-free operation. However, these benefits come at the cost of frequency shifts that, if not properly controlled, may degrade clock accuracy. Numerous theoretical studies have predicted optical lattice clock frequency shifts that scale nonlinearly with trap depth. To experimentally observe and constrain these shifts in an 171Yb optical lattice clock, we construct a lattice enhancement cavity that exaggerates the light shifts. We observe an atomic temperature that is proportional to the optical trap depth, fundamentally altering the scaling of trap-induced light shifts and simplifying their parametrization. We identify an "operational" magic wavelength where frequency shifts are insensitive to changes in trap depth. These measurements and scaling analysis constitute an essential systematic characterization for clock operation at the 10-18 level and beyond.

Does oculomotor readiness mediate exogenous capture of visual attention?

PubMed

MacLean, Gregory H; Klein, Raymond M; Hilchey, Matthew D

2015-10-01

The oculomotor readiness hypothesis makes 2 predictions: Shifts in covert attention are accompanied by preparedness to move one's eyes to the attended region, and preparedness to move one's eyes to a region in space is accompanied by a shift in covert attention to the prepared location. Both predictions have been disconfirmed using an endogenous attention task. In the 2 experiments presented here, the same 2 predictions were tested using an exogenous attention task. It was found that participants experienced covert capture without accompanying oculomotor activation and experienced oculomotor activation without accompanying covert capture. While under everyday conditions the overt and covert orienting systems may be strongly linked, apparently they can nonetheless operate with a high degree of independence from one another. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Prediction of space sickness in astronauts from preflight fluid, electrolyte, and cardiovascular variables and Weightless Environmental Training Facility (WETF) training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simanonok, K.; Mosely, E.; Charles, J.

1992-01-01

Nine preflight variables related to fluid, electrolyte, and cardiovascular status from 64 first-time Shuttle crewmembers were differentially weighted by discrimination analysis to predict the incidence and severity of each crewmember's space sickness as rated by NASA flight surgeons. The nine variables are serum uric acid, red cell count, environmental temperature at the launch site, serum phosphate, urine osmolality, serum thyroxine, sitting systolic blood pressure, calculated blood volume, and serum chloride. Using two methods of cross-validation on the original samples (jackknife and a stratefied random subsample), these variables enable the prediction of space sickness incidence (NONE or SICK) with 80 percent sickness and space severity (NONE, MILD, MODERATE, of SEVERE) with 59 percent success by one method of cross-validation and 67 percent by another method. Addition of a tenth variable, hours spent in the Weightlessness Environment Training Facility (WETF) did not improve the prediction of space sickness incidences but did improve the prediction of space sickness severity to 66 percent success by the first method of cross-validation of original samples and to 71 percent by the second method. Results to date suggest the presence of predisposing physiologic factors to space sickness that implicate fluid shift etiology. The data also suggest that prior exposure to fluid shift during WETF training may produce some circulatory pre-adaption to fluid shifts in weightlessness that results in a reduction of space sickness severity.

Nuclear spin relaxation due to chemical shift anisotropy of gas-phase 129Xe.

PubMed

Hanni, Matti; Lantto, Perttu; Vaara, Juha

2011-08-14

Nuclear spin relaxation provides detailed dynamical information on molecular systems and materials. Here, first-principles modeling of the chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) relaxation time for the prototypic monoatomic (129)Xe gas is carried out, both complementing and predicting the results of NMR measurements. Our approach is based on molecular dynamics simulations combined with pre-parametrized ab initio binary nuclear shielding tensors, an "NMR force field". By using the Redfield relaxation formalism, the simulated CSA time correlation functions lead to spectral density functions that, for the first time, quantitatively determine the experimental spin-lattice relaxation times T(1). The quality requirements on both the Xe-Xe interaction potential and binary shielding tensor are investigated in the context of CSA T(1). Persistent dimers Xe(2) are found to be responsible for the CSA relaxation mechanism in the low-density limit of the gas, completely in line with the earlier experimental findings.

Development of red-shifted mutants derived from luciferase of Brazilian click beetle Pyrearinus termitilluminans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiguchi, Tomoki; Yamada, Toshimichi; Nasu, Yusuke; Ito, Mashiho; Yoshimura, Hideaki; Ozawa, Takeaki

2015-10-01

Luciferase, a bioluminescent protein, has been used as an analytical tool to visualize intracellular phenomena. Luciferase with red light emission is particularly useful for bioluminescence imaging because of its high transmittance in mammalian tissues. However, the luminescence intensity of existing luciferases with their emission over 600 nm is insufficient for imaging studies because of their weak intensities. We developed mutants of Emerald luciferase (Eluc) from Brazilian click beetle (Pyrearinus termitilluminans), which emits the strongest bioluminescence among beetle luciferases. We successively introduced four amino acid mutations into the luciferase based on a predicted structure of Eluc using homology modeling. Results showed that quadruple mutations R214K/H241K/S246H/H347A into the beetle luciferase emit luminescence with emission maximum at 626 nm, 88-nm red-shift from the wild-type luciferase. This mutant luciferase is anticipated for application in in vivo multicolor imaging in living samples.

Proton Injection into the Fermilab Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prebys, Eric; Antipov, Sergey; Piekarz, Henryk

The Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) is an experimental synchrotron being built at Fermilab to test the concept of non-linear "integrable optics". These optics are based on a lattice including non-linear elements that satisfies particular conditions on the Hamiltonian. The resulting particle motion is predicted to be stable but without a unique tune. The system is therefore insensitive to resonant instabilities and can in principle store very intense beams, with space charge tune shifts larger than those which are possible in conventional linear synchrotrons. The ring will initially be tested with pencil electron beams, but this poster describes the ultimatemore » plan to install a 2.5 MeV RFQ to inject protons, which will produce tune shifts on the order of unity. Technical details will be presented, as well as simulations of protons in the ring.« less

Matrix-isolation and computational study of the HXeY⋯H2O complexes (Y = Cl, Br, and I).

PubMed

Tsuge, Masashi; Berski, Sławomir; Räsänen, Markku; Latajka, Zdzisław; Khriachtchev, Leonid

2014-01-28

The HXeY⋯H2O complexes (Y = Cl, Br, and I) are studied theoretically and experimentally. The calculations at the CCSD(T)/def2-TZVPPD level of theory predict two stable structures for Y = Cl and Br and one structure for Y = I, with interaction energies up to about -7 kcal mol(-1). In the experiments, we have identified several infrared absorption bands originating from the H-Xe stretching mode of these complexes in a xenon matrix. The monomer-to-complex frequency shifts of this mode are up to +82 cm(-1) (Y = Cl), +101 cm(-1) (Y = Br), and +138 cm(-1) (Y = I), i.e., the shift is smaller for more strongly bound molecules. Based on the agreement of the experimental and theoretical results, the observed bands are assigned to the most stable planar structure with an O-H⋯Y-Xe hydrogen bond.

Extended Coherence Time on the Clock Transition of Optically Trapped Rubidium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleine Buening, G.; Will, J.; Ertmer, W.

2011-06-17

Optically trapped ensembles are of crucial importance for frequency measurements and quantum memories but generally suffer from strong dephasing due to inhomogeneous density and light shifts. We demonstrate a drastic increase of the coherence time to 21 s on the magnetic field insensitive clock transition of {sup 87}Rb by applying the recently discovered spin self-rephasing [C. Deutsch et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 105, 020401 (2010)]. This result confirms the general nature of this new mechanism and thus shows its applicability in atom clocks and quantum memories. A systematic investigation of all relevant frequency shifts and noise contributions yields a stabilitymore » of 2.4x10{sup -11{tau}-1/2}, where {tau} is the integration time in seconds. Based on a set of technical improvements, the presented frequency standard is predicted to rival the stability of microwave fountain clocks in a potentially much more compact setup.« less

Ultralow-threshold cascaded Brillouin microlaser for tunable microwave generation.

PubMed

Guo, Changlei; Che, Kaijun; Cai, Zhiping; Liu, Shuai; Gu, Guoqiang; Chu, Chengxu; Zhang, Pan; Fu, Hongyan; Luo, Zhengqian; Xu, Huiying

2015-11-01

We experimentally demonstrate an ultralow-threshold cascaded Brillouin microlaser for tunable microwave generation in a high-Q silica microsphere resonator. The threshold of the Brillouin microlaser is as low as 8 μW, which is close to the theoretical prediction. Moreover, the fifth-order Stokes line with a frequency shift up to 55 GHz is achieved with a coupled pump power of less than 0.6 mW. Benefiting from resonant wavelength shifts driven by thermal dynamics in the microsphere, we further realized tunable microwave signals with tuning ranges of 40 MHz at an 11 GHz band and 20 MHz at a 22 GHz band. To the best of our knowledge, it was the first attempt for tunable microwave source based on the whispering-gallery-mode Brillouin microlaser. Such a tunable microwave source from a cascaded Brillouin microlaser could find significant applications in aerospace, communication engineering, and metrology.

Development of red-shifted mutants derived from luciferase of Brazilian click beetle Pyrearinus termitilluminans.

PubMed

Nishiguchi, Tomoki; Yamada, Toshimichi; Nasu, Yusuke; Ito, Mashiho; Yoshimura, Hideaki; Ozawa, Takeaki

2015-10-01

Luciferase, a bioluminescent protein, has been used as an analytical tool to visualize intracellular phenomena. Luciferase with red light emission is particularly useful for bioluminescence imaging because of its high transmittance in mammalian tissues. However, the luminescence intensity of existing luciferases with their emission over 600 nm is insufficient for imaging studies because of their weak intensities. We developed mutants of Emerald luciferase (Eluc) from Brazilian click beetle (Pyrearinus termitilluminans), which emits the strongest bioluminescence among beetle luciferases. We successively introduced four amino acid mutations into the luciferase based on a predicted structure of Eluc using homology modeling. Results showed that quadruple mutations R214K/H241K/S246H/H347A into the beetle luciferase emit luminescence with emission maximum at 626 nm, 88-nm red-shift from the wild-type luciferase. This mutant luciferase is anticipated for application in in vivo multicolor imaging in living samples.

Influence of rate of change of frequency on the overall pitch of frequency-modulated tones.

PubMed

Gockel, H; Moore, B C; Carlyon, R P

2001-02-01

The mechanism(s) determining pitch may assign less weight to portions of a sound where the frequency is changing rapidly. The present experiments explored the possible effect of this on the overall pitch of frequency-modulated sounds. Pitch matches were obtained between an adjustable unmodulated sinusoid and a sinusoidal carrier that was frequency modulated using a highly asymmetric function with the form of a repeating U or inverted U shaped function. The amplitude was constant during the 400-ms presentation time of each stimulus, except for 10-ms raised-cosine onset and offset ramps. In experiment 1, the carrier level was 50 dB SPL and the geometric mean of the instantaneous frequency of the modulated carrier, fc, was either 0.5, 1, 2, or 8 kHz. The modulation rate (fm) was 5, 10, or 20 Hz. The overall depth (maximum to minimum) of the FM was 8% of fc. For all carrier frequencies, the matched frequency was shifted away from the mean carrier frequency, downwards for the U shaped function stimuli and upwards for the repeated inverted U shaped function stimuli. The shift was typically slightly greater than 1% of fc, and did not vary markedly with fc. The effect of fm was small, but there was a trend for the shifts to decrease with increasing fm for fc = 0.5 kHz and to increase with increasing fm for fc = 2 kHz. In experiment 2, the carrier level was reduced to 20 dB SL and matches were obtained only for fc = 2 kHz. Shifts in matched frequency of about 1% were still observed, but the trend for the shifts to increase with increasing fm no longer occurred. In experiment 3, matches were obtained for a 4-kHz carrier at 50 dB SPL. Shifts of about 1% again occurred, which did not vary markedly with fm. The shifts in matched frequency observed in all three experiments are not predicted by models based on the amplitude- or intensity-weighted average of instantaneous frequency (EWAIF or IWAIF). The shifts (and the pitch shifts observed earlier for two-tone complexes and for stimuli with simultaneous AM and FM) are consistent with a model based on the assumption that the overall pitch of a frequency-modulated sound is determined from a weighted average of period estimates, with the weight attached to a given estimate being inversely related to the short-term rate of change of period and directly related to a compressive function of the amplitude.

Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change.

PubMed

Bush, Alex A; Nipperess, David A; Duursma, Daisy E; Theischinger, Gunther; Turak, Eren; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.

Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bush, Alex A.; Nipperess, David A.; Duursma, Daisy E.; Theischinger, Gunther; Turak, Eren; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56–69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3–17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species. PMID:24551197

Development of In Vitro-In Vivo Correlation for Potassium Chloride Extended Release Tablet Formulation Using Urinary Pharmacokinetic Data.

PubMed

Mittapalli, Rajendar K; Marroum, Patrick; Qiu, Yihong; Apfelbaum, Kathleen; Xiong, Hao

2017-07-01

To develop and validate a Level A in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) for potassium chloride extended-release (ER) formulations. Three prototype ER formulations of potassium chloride with different in vitro release rates were developed and their urinary pharmacokinetic profiles were evaluated in healthy subjects. A mathematical model between in vitro dissolution and in vivo urinary excretion, a surrogate for measuring in vivo absorption, was developed using time-scale and time-shift parameters. The IVIVC model was then validated based on internal and external predictability. With the established IVIVC model, there was a good correlation between the observed fraction of dose excreted in urine and the time-scaled and time-shifted fraction of the drug dissolved, and between the in vitro dissolution time and the in vivo urinary excretion time for the ER formulations. The percent prediction error (%PE) on cumulative urinary excretion over the 24 h interval (A e0-24h ) and maximum urinary excretion rate (R max ) was less than 15% for the individual formulations and less than 10% for the average of the two formulations used to develop the model. Further, the %PE values using external predictability were below 10%. A novel Level A IVIVC was successfully developed and validated for the new potassium chloride ER formulations using urinary pharmacokinetic data. This successful IVIVC may facilitate future development or manufacturing changes to the potassium chloride ER formulation.

The reality and importance of founder speciation in evolution.

PubMed

Templeton, Alan R

2008-05-01

A founder event occurs when a new population is established from a small number of individuals drawn from a large ancestral population. Mayr proposed that genetic drift in an isolated founder population could alter the selective forces in an epistatic system, an observation supported by recent studies. Carson argued that a period of relaxed selection could occur when a founder population is in an open ecological niche, allowing rapid population growth after the founder event. Selectable genetic variation can actually increase during this founder-flush phase due to recombination, enhanced survival of advantageous mutations, and the conversion of non-additive genetic variance into additive variance in an epistatic system, another empirically confirmed prediction. Templeton combined the theories of Mayr and Carson with population genetic models to predict the conditions under which founder events can contribute to speciation, and these predictions are strongly confirmed by the empirical literature. Much of the criticism of founder speciation is based upon equating founder speciation to an adaptive peak shift opposed by selection. However, Mayr, Carson and Templeton all modeled a positive interaction of selection and drift, and Templeton showed that founder speciation is incompatible with peak-shift conditions. Although rare, founder speciation can have a disproportionate importance in adaptive innovation and radiation, and examples are given to show that "rare" does not mean "unimportant" in evolution. Founder speciation also interacts with other speciation mechanisms such that a speciation event is not a one-dimensional process due to either selection alone or drift alone. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

VITAL NMR: Using Chemical Shift Derived Secondary Structure Information for a Limited Set of Amino Acids to Assess Homology Model Accuracy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brothers, Michael C; Nesbitt, Anna E; Hallock, Michael J

2011-01-01

Homology modeling is a powerful tool for predicting protein structures, whose success depends on obtaining a reasonable alignment between a given structural template and the protein sequence being analyzed. In order to leverage greater predictive power for proteins with few structural templates, we have developed a method to rank homology models based upon their compliance to secondary structure derived from experimental solid-state NMR (SSNMR) data. Such data is obtainable in a rapid manner by simple SSNMR experiments (e.g., (13)C-(13)C 2D correlation spectra). To test our homology model scoring procedure for various amino acid labeling schemes, we generated a library ofmore » 7,474 homology models for 22 protein targets culled from the TALOS+/SPARTA+ training set of protein structures. Using subsets of amino acids that are plausibly assigned by SSNMR, we discovered that pairs of the residues Val, Ile, Thr, Ala and Leu (VITAL) emulate an ideal dataset where all residues are site specifically assigned. Scoring the models with a predicted VITAL site-specific dataset and calculating secondary structure with the Chemical Shift Index resulted in a Pearson correlation coefficient (-0.75) commensurate to the control (-0.77), where secondary structure was scored site specifically for all amino acids (ALL 20) using STRIDE. This method promises to accelerate structure procurement by SSNMR for proteins with unknown folds through guiding the selection of remotely homologous protein templates and assessing model quality.« less

Predatory beetles facilitate plant growth by driving earthworms to lower soil layers.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuan; Griffin, John N; Wu, Xinwei; Sun, Shucun

2013-07-01

Theory suggests that predators of soil-improving, plant-facilitating detritivores (e.g. earthworms) should suppress plant growth via a negative tri-trophic cascade, but the empirical evidence is still largely lacking. We tested this prediction in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau by manipulating predatory beetles (presence/absence) and quantifying (i) direct effects on the density and behaviour of earthworms; and (ii) indirect effects on soil properties and above-ground plant biomass. In the absence of predators, earthworms improved soil properties, but did not significantly affect plant biomass. Surprisingly, the presence of predators strengthened the positive effect of earthworms on soil properties leading to the emergence of a positive indirect effect of predators on plant biomass. We attribute this counterintuitive result to: (i) the inability of predators to suppress overall earthworm density; and (ii) the predator-induced earthworm habitat shift from the upper to lower soil layer that enhanced their soil-modifying, plant-facilitating, effects. Our results reveal that plant-level consequences of predators as transmitted through detritivores can hinge on behaviour-mediated indirect interactions that have the potential to overturn predictions based solely on trophic interactions. This work calls for a closer examination of the effects of predators in detritus food webs and the development of spatially explicit theory capable of predicting the occurrence and consequences of predator-induced detritivore behavioural shifts. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Flow-through micro-capillary refractive index sensor based on T/R spectral shift monitoring.

PubMed

Rigamonti, Giulia; Guardamagna, Marco; Bello, Valentina; Marconi, Stefania; Auricchio, Ferdinando; Merlo, Sabina

2017-10-01

We present a flow-through refractive index sensor for measuring the concentration of glucose solutions based on the application of rectangular glass micro-capillaries, with channel depth of 50 µm and 30 µm. A custom designed and 3D printed polymeric shell protects the tiny capillaries, ensuring an easier handling and interconnection with the macro-fluidic path. By illuminating the capillary with broadband radiation centered at λ~1.55 µm, both the transmitted (T) and reflected (R) optical spectrum from the capillary are detected with an optical spectrum analyzer, exploiting an all-fiber setup. Monitoring the spectral shift of the ratio T/R in response to increasing concentration of glucose solutions in water we have obtained sensitivities up to 530.9 nm/RIU and limit of detection in the range of 10 -5 -10 -4 RIU. Experimental results are in agreement with the theoretically predicted principle of operation. After the demonstration of amplitude detection at a single wavelength, we finally discuss the impact of the capillary parameters on the sensitivity.

Intelligence, creativity, and cognitive control: The common and differential involvement of executive functions in intelligence and creativity

PubMed Central

Benedek, Mathias; Jauk, Emanuel; Sommer, Markus; Arendasy, Martin; Neubauer, Aljoscha C.

2014-01-01

Intelligence and creativity are known to be correlated constructs suggesting that they share a common cognitive basis. The present study assessed three specific executive abilities – updating, shifting, and inhibition – and examined their common and differential relations to fluid intelligence and creativity (i.e., divergent thinking ability) within a latent variable model approach. Additionally, it was tested whether the correlation of fluid intelligence and creativity can be explained by a common executive involvement. As expected, fluid intelligence was strongly predicted by updating, but not by shifting or inhibition. Creativity was predicted by updating and inhibition, but not by shifting. Moreover, updating (and the personality factor openness) was found to explain a relevant part of the shared variance between intelligence and creativity. The findings provide direct support for the executive involvement in creative thought and shed further light on the functional relationship between intelligence and creativity. PMID:25278640

Stage structure alters how complexity affects stability of ecological networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rudolf, V.H.W.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2011-01-01

Resolving how complexity affects stability of natural communities is of key importance for predicting the consequences of biodiversity loss. Central to previous stability analysis has been the assumption that the resources of a consumer are substitutable. However, during their development, most species change diets; for instance, adults often use different resources than larvae or juveniles. Here, we show that such ontogenetic niche shifts are common in real ecological networks and that consideration of these shifts can alter which species are predicted to be at risk of extinction. Furthermore, niche shifts reduce and can even reverse the otherwise stabilizing effect of complexity. This pattern arises because species with several specialized life stages appear to be generalists at the species level but act as sequential specialists that are hypersensitive to resource loss. These results suggest that natural communities are more vulnerable to biodiversity loss than indicated by previous analyses.

How do different definitions of night shift affect the exposure assessment of night work?

PubMed

Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Johnni; Kolstad, Henrik A; Larsen, Ann Dyreborg; Hansen, Åse Marie

The aim is to show how different definitions affect the proportion of shifts classified as night shifts. The Danish Working Hour Database was used to calculate number of night shifts according to eight definitions. More than 98% of the total night shifts were night shifts by use of both the reference definition (at least 3 h of work between 24:00 and 05:00) and definitions using a period during the night. The overlap with definitions based on starting and ending time was less pronounced (64-71 %). The proportion of classified night shifts differs little when night shifts are based on definitions including a period during the night. Studies based on other definitions may be less comparable.

Diagnostic Performance of Ultrasonography for Pediatric Appendicitis: A Night and Day Difference?

PubMed

Mangona, Kate Louise M; Guillerman, R Paul; Mangona, Victor S; Carpenter, Jennifer; Zhang, Wei; Lopez, Monica; Orth, Robert C

2017-12-01

For imaging pediatric appendicitis, ultrasonography (US) is preferred because of its lack of ionizing radiation, but is limited by operator dependence. This study investigates the US diagnostic performance during night shifts covered by radiology trainees compared to day shifts covered by attending radiologists. Appy-Scores (1 = completely visualized normal appendix; 2 = partially visualized normal appendix; 3 = nonvisualized appendix with no inflammatory changes in the expected region of the appendix; 4 = equivocal; 5a = nonperforated appendicitis; 5b = perforated appendicitis) from 2935 US examinations (2161:774, day-to-night) from July 2013 to 2014 were correlated with the intraoperative diagnoses and the clinical follow-up. The diagnostic performance of trainees and attendings was compared with Fisher exact test. Interobserver agreement was measured by Cohen kappa coefficient. Appendicitis prevalence was 25.3% (day) and 22.5% (night). Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, negative predictive value, and positive predictive vale were 94.0%, 93.7%, 93.8%, 97.9%, and 83.4% during the day and 92.0%, 91.2%, 91.3%, 97.5%, and 75.2% at night. Specificity (P = .048) and positive predictive value (P = .011) differed, with more false positives at night (7%) than during the day (4.7%). Trainee and attending agreement was high (k = 0.995), with Appy-Scores of 1, 4, and 5a most frequently discordant. US has a high diagnostic performance and interobserver agreement for pediatric appendicitis when interpreted by radiology trainees during night shifts or attending radiologists during day shifts. However, lower specificity and positive predictive value at night warrants a thorough trainee education to avoid false-positive examinations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Self-consistency test reveals systematic bias in programs for prediction change of stability upon mutation.

PubMed

Usmanova, Dinara R; Bogatyreva, Natalya S; Ariño Bernad, Joan; Eremina, Aleksandra A; Gorshkova, Anastasiya A; Kanevskiy, German M; Lonishin, Lyubov R; Meister, Alexander V; Yakupova, Alisa G; Kondrashov, Fyodor A; Ivankov, Dmitry N

2018-05-02

Computational prediction of the effect of mutations on protein stability is used by researchers in many fields. The utility of the prediction methods is affected by their accuracy and bias. Bias, a systematic shift of the predicted change of stability, has been noted as an issue for several methods, but has not been investigated systematically. Presence of the bias may lead to misleading results especially when exploring the effects of combination of different mutations. Here we use a protocol to measure the bias as a function of the number of introduced mutations. It is based on a self-consistency test of the reciprocity the effect of a mutation. An advantage of the used approach is that it relies solely on crystal structures without experimentally measured stability values. We applied the protocol to four popular algorithms predicting change of protein stability upon mutation, FoldX, Eris, Rosetta, and I-Mutant, and found an inherent bias. For one program, FoldX, we manage to substantially reduce the bias using additional relaxation by Modeller. Authors using algorithms for predicting effects of mutations should be aware of the bias described here. ivankov13@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Computational alloy design of (Co1-xNix)88Zr7B4Cu1 nanocomposite soft magnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, B.; Healy, J.; Lan, S.; Daniil, M.; Willard, M. A.

2018-05-01

The dependence of coercivity on composition is an important factor for establishing optimized soft magnetic properties. In this study, we have used the random anisotropy and coherent rotation models to estimate the variation of coercivity with composition in (Co1-xNix)88Zr7B4Cu1 nanocomposite alloys. Our calculations that the magnetoelastic anisotropy contribution to coercivity dominates for Ni rich compositions (x > 0.5). A small range of compositions (0.65 < x < 0.75) is predicted to result in low values of coercivity (<10 A/m). To validate this prediction, (Co1-xNix)88Zr7B4Cu1 nanocomposites in this range were prepared by melt spinning followed by 3600 s isothermal annealing at the primary crystallization peak temperature (˜673 K). Hysteresis loops were measured using vibrating sample magnetometry at room temperature and saturation magnetostriction was measured using a strain gage based magnetostrictometer. Moderately small coercivities (30-40 A/m) and magnetostrictions (3-4 ppm) were measured at for samples with 0.685 < x < 0.725. Our measured coercivity had a minimum value of 32 A/m at x = 0.725, a shift in composition of about 5 at% in the direction of higher Ni content and without the anticipated low value of coercivity. Several reasons for the inaccuracy of this approach are described, including: ignored contributions from amorphous phase (especially in magnetoealstic anisotropy), composition segregation during crystallization leading to unpredictable compositional shifts in prediction, and the general observation that the predictability of minimum coercivity from minimal combined anisotropies has unexplained deviation even in far less complicated materials.

An assessment of the impact of ATMS and CrIS data assimilation on precipitation prediction over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Tong; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Chen, Han-Ching; Chiu, Long S.; Shao, Min

2017-07-01

Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system and the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) regional model, the impact of assimilating Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) satellite data on precipitation prediction over the Tibetan Plateau in July 2015 was evaluated. Four experiments were designed: a control experiment and three data assimilation experiments with different data sets injected: conventional data only, a combination of conventional and ATMS satellite data, and a combination of conventional and CrIS satellite data. The results showed that the monthly mean of precipitation is shifted northward in the simulations and showed an orographic bias described as an overestimation upwind of the mountains and an underestimation in the south of the rain belt. The rain shadow mainly influenced prediction of the quantity of precipitation, although the main rainfall pattern was well simulated. For the first 24 h and last 24 h of accumulated daily precipitation, the model generally overestimated the amount of precipitation, but it was underestimated in the heavy-rainfall periods of 3-5, 13-16, and 22-25 July. The observed water vapor conveyance from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was larger than in the model simulations, which induced inaccuracies in the forecast of heavy rain on 3-5 July. The data assimilation experiments, particularly the ATMS assimilation, were closer to the observations for the heavy-rainfall process than the control. Overall, based on the experiments in July 2015, the satellite data assimilation improved to some extent the prediction of the precipitation pattern over the Tibetan Plateau, although the simulation of the rain belt without data assimilation shows the regional shifting.

Consequences of a warming climate for social organisation in sweat bees.

PubMed

Schürch, Roger; Accleton, Christopher; Field, Jeremy

The progression from solitary living to caste-based sociality is commonly regarded as a major evolutionary transition. However, it has recently been shown that in some taxa, sociality may be plastic and dependent on local conditions. If sociality can be environmentally driven, the question arises as to how projected climate change will influence features of social organisation that were previously thought to be of macroevolutionary proportions. Depending on the time available in spring during which a foundress can produce worker offspring, the sweat bee Halictus rubicundus is either social or solitary. We analysed detailed foraging data in relation to climate change predictions for Great Britain to assess when and where switches from a solitary to social lifestyle may be expected. We demonstrate that worker numbers should increase throughout Great Britain under predicted climate change scenarios, and importantly, that sociality should appear in northern areas where it has never before been observed. This dramatic shift in social organisation due to climate change should lead to a bigger workforce being available for summer pollination and may contribute towards mitigating the current pollinator crisis. The sweat bee Halictus rubicundus is socially polymorphic, expressing both solitary and social forms, and is socially plastic, capable of transitioning from solitary to social forms, depending on local environmental conditions. Here, we analyse detailed foraging data in relation to climate change predictions for Great Britain to show that worker numbers and sociality both increase under predicted climate change scenarios. Especially dramatic will be the appearance of social H. rubicundus nests in the north of Britain, where previously only solitary forms are found. Particularly, if more taxa are found to be socially plastic, environmentally driven shifts in social organisation may help to mitigate future pollinator crises by providing more individuals for pollination.

Real-time pricing strategy of micro-grid energy centre considering price-based demand response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiheng; Zhang, Yongjun; Wang, Gan

2017-07-01

With the development of energy conversion technology such as power to gas (P2G), fuel cell and so on, the coupling between energy sources becomes more and more closely. Centralized dispatch among electricity, natural gas and heat will become a trend. With the goal of maximizing the system revenue, this paper establishes the model of micro-grid energy centre based on energy hub. According to the proposed model, the real-time pricing strategy taking into account price-based demand response of load is developed. And the influence of real-time pricing strategy on the peak load shifting is discussed. In addition, the impact of wind power predicted inaccuracy on real-time pricing strategy is analysed.

Orthogonal Electric Field Measurements near the Green Fluorescent Protein Fluorophore through Stark Effect Spectroscopy and pKa Shifts Provide a Unique Benchmark for Electrostatics Models.

PubMed

Slocum, Joshua D; First, Jeremy T; Webb, Lauren J

2017-07-20

Measurement of the magnitude, direction, and functional importance of electric fields in biomolecules has been a long-standing experimental challenge. pK a shifts of titratable residues have been the most widely implemented measurements of the local electrostatic environment around the labile proton, and experimental data sets of pK a shifts in a variety of systems have been used to test and refine computational prediction capabilities of protein electrostatic fields. A more direct and increasingly popular technique to measure electric fields in proteins is Stark effect spectroscopy, where the change in absorption energy of a chromophore relative to a reference state is related to the change in electric field felt by the chromophore. While there are merits to both of these methods and they are both reporters of local electrostatic environment, they are fundamentally different measurements, and to our knowledge there has been no direct comparison of these two approaches in a single protein. We have recently demonstrated that green fluorescent protein (GFP) is an ideal model system for measuring changes in electric fields in a protein interior caused by amino acid mutations using both electronic and vibrational Stark effect chromophores. Here we report the changes in pK a of the GFP fluorophore in response to the same mutations and show that they are in excellent agreement with Stark effect measurements. This agreement in the results of orthogonal experiments reinforces our confidence in the experimental results of both Stark effect and pK a measurements and provides an excellent target data set to benchmark diverse protein electrostatics calculations. We used this experimental data set to test the pK a prediction ability of the adaptive Poisson-Boltzmann solver (APBS) and found that a simple continuum dielectric model of the GFP interior is insufficient to accurately capture the measured pK a and Stark effect shifts. We discuss some of the limitations of this continuum-based model in this system and offer this experimentally self-consistent data set as a target benchmark for electrostatics models, which could allow for a more rigorous test of pK a prediction techniques due to the unique environment of the water-filled GFP barrel compared to traditional globular proteins.

Effect of a Perturbation on the Chemical Equilibrium: Comparison with Le Chatelier's Principle

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torres, Emilio Martinez

2007-01-01

This article develops a general thermodynamic treatment to predict the direction of shift in a chemical equilibrium when it is subjected to a stress. This treatment gives an inequality that relates the change in the perturbed variable and the change that the equilibrium shift produces in the conjugated variable. To illustrate the generality of…

Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2001-01-01

We investigated the effect of habitat loss on the ability of trees to shift in distribution across a landscape dominated by agriculture. The potential distribution shifts of four tree species (Diospyros virginiana, Oxydendron arboreum, Pinus virginiana, Quercus falcata var. falcata) whose northern distribution limits fall in the...

The Role of Race and Teachers' Cultural Awareness in Predicting Low-Income, Black and Hispanic Students' Perceptions of Educational Attainment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahatmya, Duhita; Lohman, Brenda J.; Brown, Elizabeth L.; Conway-Turner, Jameela

2016-01-01

Demographic shifts in the United States have resulted in similar demographic shifts between K-12 teachers and their students, resulting in important implications for the educational outcomes of traditionally marginalized students and educators' cultural awareness required in teaching diverse classrooms. Using data from the Three-City Teacher…

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and...

Validation of a noninvasive test routinely used in otology for the diagnosis of cerebrospinal fluid shunt malfunction in patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Sakka, Laurent; Chomicki, Alexandre; Gabrillargues, Jean; Khalil, Toufic; Chazal, Jean; Avan, Paul

2016-02-01

Ventriculoperitoneal shunting is the first-line treatment for normal pressure hydrocephalus. Noninvasive auditory tests based on recorded otoacoustic emissions were assessed, as currently used for universal neonatal hearing screenings, for the diagnosis of cerebrospinal fluid shunt malfunction. The test was designed based on previous works, which demonstrated that an intracranial pressure change induces a proportional, characteristic, otoacoustic-emission phase shift. Forty-four patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus (23 idiopathic and 21 secondary cases) were included in this prospective observational study. The male:female sex ratio was 1.44, the age range was 21-87 years (mean age 64.3 years), and the range of the follow-up period was 1-3 years (mean 20 months). Patients were implanted with a Sophy SU8 adjustable-pressure valve as the ventriculoperitoneal shunt. The phase shifts of otoacoustic emissions in response to body tilt were measured preoperatively, immediately postoperatively, and at 3-6 months, 7-15 months, 16-24 months, and more than 24 months postoperatively. Three groups were enrolled: Group 1, 19 patients who required no valve opening-pressure adjustment; Group 2, 18 patients who required valve opening-pressure adjustments; and Group 3, 7 patients who required valve replacement. In Group 1, phase shift, which was positive before surgery, became steadily negative after surgery and during the follow-up. In Group 2, phase shift, which was positive before surgery, became negative immediately after surgery and increasingly negative after a decrease in the valve-opening pressure. In Group 3, phase shift was positive in 6 cases and slightly negative in 1 case before revision, but after revision phase shift became significantly negative in all cases. Otoacoustic emissions noninvasively reflect cerebrospinal fluid shunt function and are impacted by valve-opening pressure adjustments. Otoacoustic emissions consistently diagnosed shunt malfunction and predicted the need for surgical revision. The authors' diagnostic test, which can be repeated without risk or discomfort by an unskilled operator, may address the crucial need of detecting valve dysfunction in patients with poor clinical outcome after shunt surgery.

Franck Condon shift assessment in 2D MoS₂.

PubMed

Gupta, Sunny; Shirodkar, Sharmila N; Kaplan, Daniel; Swaminathan, Venkataraman; Yakobson, Boris I

2018-01-19

Optical spectroscopy (OS) techniques are often coupled with first-principles density functional theoretical (DFT) calculations for determining the precise influence of defects on the electronic and structural properties of two dimensional (2D) TMDs. Such calculations are carried out presuming there is little or no effect of vibrational transitions on the observed electronic spectrum. However, if the effect of change in vibrational energy [Franck Condon (FC) shift] associated with such a transition is large, it could possibly lead to a different origin for the observed peak. One such instance is the attribution of the 0.75 eV cathodoluminescence peak by Fabbri et. al. [Nat. Commun. 7, 13044 (2016)]. to an optical transition from an S vacancy level in the band gap, under the assumption that the FC shift is negligible. Here, by first principles constrained DFT calculations using hybrid HSE06 functional we show that this combined prediction of OS and DFT calculations is valid for 2D MoS2 since the FC shift associated with electronic transitions from a sulfur vacancy is, indeed, small ~28 meV. Based on our calculations we conclude that it is reasonable to make a direct connection between DFT calculations and optical spectroscopy techniques in this material, hence, establishing a one to one relation between defect related emission bands and electronic transitions from the defect levels. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Franck Condon shift assessment in 2D MoS2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Sunny; Shirodkar, Sharmila N.; Kaplan, Daniel; Swaminathan, Venkataraman; Yakobson, Boris I.

2018-03-01

Optical spectroscopy (OS) techniques are often coupled with first-principles density functional theoretical (DFT) calculations for determining the precise influence of defects on the electronic and structural properties of two-dimensional (2D) transition metal dichalcogenides. Such calculations are carried out presuming there is little or no effect of vibrational transitions on the observed electronic spectrum. However, if the effect of change in vibrational energy (Franck Condon (FC) shift) associated with such a transition is large, it could possibly lead to a different origin for the observed peak. One such instance is the attribution of the 0.75 eV cathodoluminescence peak by Fabbri et al (2016 Nat. Commun. 7 13044) to an optical transition from an S vacancy level in the band gap, under the assumption that the FC shift is negligible. Here, by first principles constrained DFT calculations using hybrid HSE06 functional we show that this combined prediction of OS and DFT calculations is valid for 2D MoS2 since the FC shift associated with electronic transitions from a sulfur vacancy is indeed small ~28 meV. Based on our calculations we conclude that it is reasonable to make a direct connection between DFT calculations and optical spectroscopy techniques in this material, hence, establishing a one to one relation between defect related emission bands and electronic transitions from the defect levels.

Improving management of small natural features on private lands by negotiating the science-policy boundary for Maine vernal pools.

PubMed

Calhoun, Aram J K; Jansujwicz, Jessica S; Bell, Kathleen P; Hunter, Malcolm L

2014-07-29

Vernal pools are far more important for providing ecosystem services than one would predict based on their small size. However, prevailing resource-management strategies are not effectively conserving pools and other small natural features on private lands. Solutions are complicated by tensions between private property and societal rights, uncertainties over resource location and function, diverse stakeholders, and fragmented regulatory authority. The development and testing of new conservation approaches that link scientific knowledge, stakeholder decision-making, and conservation outcomes are important responses to this conservation dilemma. Drawing from a 15-y history of vernal pool conservation efforts in Maine, we describe the coevolution of pool conservation and research approaches, focusing on how research-based knowledge was produced and used in support of management decisions. As management shifted from reactive, top-down approaches to proactive and flexible approaches, research shifted from an ecology-focused program to an interdisciplinary program based on social-ecological systems. The most effective strategies for linking scientific knowledge with action changed as the decision-makers, knowledge needs, and context for vernal pool management advanced. Interactions among stakeholders increased the extent to which knowledge was coproduced and shifted the objective of stakeholder engagement from outreach to research collaboration and development of innovative conservation approaches. New conservation strategies were possible because of the flexible, solutions-oriented collaborations and trust between scientists and decision-makers (fostered over 15 y) and interdisciplinary, engaged research. Solutions to the dilemma of conserving small natural features on private lands, and analogous sustainability science challenges, will benefit from repeated negotiations of the science-policy boundary.

A Tale of Two Methods: Chart and Interview Methods for Identifying Delirium

PubMed Central

Saczynski, Jane S.; Kosar, Cyrus M.; Xu, Guoquan; Puelle, Margaret R.; Schmitt, Eva; Jones, Richard N.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Wong, Bonnie; Isaza, Ilean; Inouye, Sharon K.

2014-01-01

Background Interview and chart-based methods for identifying delirium have been validated. However, relative strengths and limitations of each method have not been described, nor has a combined approach (using both interviews and chart), been systematically examined. Objectives To compare chart and interview-based methods for identification of delirium. Design, Setting and Participants Participants were 300 patients aged 70+ undergoing major elective surgery (majority were orthopedic surgery) interviewed daily during hospitalization for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM; interview-based method) and whose medical charts were reviewed for delirium using a validated chart-review method (chart-based method). We examined rate of agreement on the two methods and patient characteristics of those identified using each approach. Predictive validity for clinical outcomes (length of stay, postoperative complications, discharge disposition) was compared. In the absence of a gold-standard, predictive value could not be calculated. Results The cumulative incidence of delirium was 23% (n= 68) by the interview-based method, 12% (n=35) by the chart-based method and 27% (n=82) by the combined approach. Overall agreement was 80%; kappa was 0.30. The methods differed in detection of psychomotor features and time of onset. The chart-based method missed delirium in CAM-identified patients laacking features of psychomotor agitation or inappropriate behavior. The CAM-based method missed chart-identified cases occurring during the night shift. The combined method had high predictive validity for all clinical outcomes. Conclusions Interview and chart-based methods have specific strengths for identification of delirium. A combined approach captures the largest number and the broadest range of delirium cases. PMID:24512042

Analytical expressions for the nonlinear interference in dispersion managed transmission coherent optical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Yaojun; Li, Ming; Yang, Qiuhong; Xu, Yanfei; Ji, Yuefeng

2015-01-01

Closed-form expressions of nonlinear interference of dense wavelength-division-multiplexed (WDM) systems with dispersion managed transmission (DMT) are derived. We carry out a simulative validation by addressing an ample and significant set of the Nyquist-WDM systems based on polarization multiplexed quadrature phase-shift keying (PM-QPSK) subcarriers at a baud rate of 32 Gbaud per channel. Simulation results show the simple closed-form analytical expressions can provide an effective tool for the quick and accurate prediction of system performance in DMT coherent optical systems.

Solvation effect on isomer stability and electronic structures of protonated serotonin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omidyan, Reza; Amanollahi, Zohreh; Azimi, Gholamhassan

2017-07-01

Microsolvation effect on geometry and transition energies of protonated serotonin has been investigated by MP2 and CC2 quantum chemical methods. Also, conductor-like screening model, implemented recently in the MP2 and ADC(2) methods, was examined to address the bulk water environment's effect on the isomer stability and electronic transition energies of protonated serotonin. It has been predicted that the dipole moment of gas phase isomers plays the main role on the isomer stabilization in water solution and electronic transition shifts. Also, both red- and blue-shift effects have been predicted to take place on electronic transition energies, upon hydration.

A report on the gravitational redshift test for non-metric theories of gravitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

The frequencies of two atomic hydrogen masers and of three superconducting cavity stabilized oscillators were compared as the ensemble of oscillators was moved in the Sun's gravitational field by the rotation and orbital motion of the Earth. Metric gravitation theories predict that the gravitational redshifts of the two types of oscillators are identical, and that there should be no relative frequency shift between the oscillators; nonmetric theories, in contrast, predict a frequency shift between masers and SCSOs that is proportional to the change in solar gravitational potential experienced by the oscillators. The results are consistent with metric theories of gravitation at a level of 2%.

Predicting the Reasons of Customer Complaints: A First Step Toward Anticipating Quality Issues of In Vitro Diagnostics Assays with Machine Learning.

PubMed

Aris-Brosou, Stephane; Kim, James; Li, Li; Liu, Hui

2018-05-15

Vendors in the health care industry produce diagnostic systems that, through a secured connection, allow them to monitor performance almost in real time. However, challenges exist in analyzing and interpreting large volumes of noisy quality control (QC) data. As a result, some QC shifts may not be detected early enough by the vendor, but lead a customer to complain. The aim of this study was to hypothesize that a more proactive response could be designed by utilizing the collected QC data more efficiently. Our aim is therefore to help prevent customer complaints by predicting them based on the QC data collected by in vitro diagnostic systems. QC data from five select in vitro diagnostic assays were combined with the corresponding database of customer complaints over a period of 90 days. A subset of these data over the last 45 days was also analyzed to assess how the length of the training period affects predictions. We defined a set of features used to train two classifiers, one based on decision trees and the other based on adaptive boosting, and assessed model performance by cross-validation. The cross-validations showed classification error rates close to zero for some assays with adaptive boosting when predicting the potential cause of customer complaints. Performance was improved by shortening the training period when the volume of complaints increased. Denoising filters that reduced the number of categories to predict further improved performance, as their application simplified the prediction problem. This novel approach to predicting customer complaints based on QC data may allow the diagnostic industry, the expected end user of our approach, to proactively identify potential product quality issues and fix these before receiving customer complaints. This represents a new step in the direction of using big data toward product quality improvement. ©Stephane Aris-Brosou, James Kim, Li Li, Hui Liu. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 15.05.2018.

Predicting the Reasons of Customer Complaints: A First Step Toward Anticipating Quality Issues of In Vitro Diagnostics Assays with Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Kim, James; Li, Li; Liu, Hui

2018-01-01

Background Vendors in the health care industry produce diagnostic systems that, through a secured connection, allow them to monitor performance almost in real time. However, challenges exist in analyzing and interpreting large volumes of noisy quality control (QC) data. As a result, some QC shifts may not be detected early enough by the vendor, but lead a customer to complain. Objective The aim of this study was to hypothesize that a more proactive response could be designed by utilizing the collected QC data more efficiently. Our aim is therefore to help prevent customer complaints by predicting them based on the QC data collected by in vitro diagnostic systems. Methods QC data from five select in vitro diagnostic assays were combined with the corresponding database of customer complaints over a period of 90 days. A subset of these data over the last 45 days was also analyzed to assess how the length of the training period affects predictions. We defined a set of features used to train two classifiers, one based on decision trees and the other based on adaptive boosting, and assessed model performance by cross-validation. Results The cross-validations showed classification error rates close to zero for some assays with adaptive boosting when predicting the potential cause of customer complaints. Performance was improved by shortening the training period when the volume of complaints increased. Denoising filters that reduced the number of categories to predict further improved performance, as their application simplified the prediction problem. Conclusions This novel approach to predicting customer complaints based on QC data may allow the diagnostic industry, the expected end user of our approach, to proactively identify potential product quality issues and fix these before receiving customer complaints. This represents a new step in the direction of using big data toward product quality improvement. PMID:29764796

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century.

PubMed

Mathys, Amanda S; Coops, Nicholas C; Waring, Richard H

2017-02-01

Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process-based growth model 3-PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40 000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution ≥70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200 m yr -1 to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Guillén, Rosa Ana; Muñoz, Jesús; Rodríguez-Tapia, Gerardo; Feria Arroyo, T. Patricia; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex

2013-01-01

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful. PMID:24260411

Has climatic warming altered spring flowering date of Sonoran Desert shrubs?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, Janice E.

2007-01-01

With global warming, flowering at many locations has shifted toward earlier dates of bloom. A steady increase in average annual temperature since the late 1890s makes it likely that flowering also has advanced in the northern Sonoran Desert of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In this study, phenological models were used to predict annual date of spring bloom in the northern Sonoran Desert from 1894 to 2004; then, herbarium specimens were assessed for objective evidence of the predicted shift in flowering time. The phenological models were derived from known flowering requirements (triggers and heat sums) of Sonoran Desert shrubs. According to the models, flowering might have advanced by 20-41 d from 1894 to 2004. Analysis of herbarium specimens collected during the 20th century supported the model predictions. Over time, there was a significant increase in the proportion of shrub specimens collected in flower in March and a significant decrease in the proportion collected in May. Thus, the flowering curve - the proportion of individuals in flower in each spring month - shifted toward the start of the calendar year between 1900 and 1999. This shift could not be explained by collection activity: collectors showed no tendency to be active earlier in the year as time went on, nor did activity toward the end of spring decline in recent decades. Earlier bloom eventually could have substantial impacts on plant and animal communities in the Sonoran Desert, especially on migratory hummingbirds and population dynamics of shrubs.

Species- and community-level responses combine to drive phenology of lake phytoplankton

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, Annika; Sagrario, María de los Ángeles González; Schindler, Daniel E.

2013-01-01

Global change is leading to shifts in the seasonal timing of growth and maturation for primary producers. Remote sensing is increasingly used to measure the timing of primary production in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but there is often a poor correlation between these results and direct observations of life-history responses of individual species. One explanation may be that in addition to phenological shifts, global change is also causing shifts in community composition among species with different seasonal timing of growth and maturation. We quantified how shifts in species phenology and in community composition translated into phenological change in a diverse phytoplankton community from 1962-2000. During this time the aggregate community spring-summer phytoplankton peak has shifted 63 days earlier. The mean taxon shift was only 3 days earlier and shifts in taxa phenology explained only 40% of the observed community phenological shift. The remaining community shift was attributed to dominant early season taxa increasing in abundance while a dominant late season taxon decreased in abundance. In diverse producer communities experiencing multiple stressors, changes in species composition must be considered to fully understand and predict shifts in the seasonal timing of primary production.

How to report and discuss ADME data in medicinal chemistry publications: in vitro data or in vivo extrapolations?

PubMed

Svennebring, Andreas M

2015-01-01

Early drug discovery projects often utilize data from ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination) assays to benchmark data and guide discussion, rather than the predicted in vivo consequences of these data. Here, the two paradigms are compared, using evaluations of metabolic stability based on either microsomal clearance assay data or from the predicted in vivo hepatic clearance and half-life calculated through the combination of the venous well-stirred model and Øie-Tozer's model. The need for a shift in paradigm is presented, and its implications discussed. It is suggested that discussions about ADME data should revolve around potential clinical problems that are most likely to surface during the development phase, each benchmarked with a suitable variable derived from the assay data.

Characterization and prediction of monomer-based dose rate effects in electron-beam polymerization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schissel, Sage M.; Lapin, Stephen C.; Jessop, Julie L. P.

2017-12-01

Properties of some materials produced by electron-beam (EB) induced polymerization appear dependent upon the rate at which the initiating dose was delivered. However, the magnitude of these dose rate effects (DREs) can vary greatly with different monomer formulations, suggesting DREs are dependent on chemical structure. The relationship among dose, dose rate, conversion, and the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the cured material was explored for an acrylate monomer series. A strong correlation was determined between the DRE magnitude and monomer size, and this correlation may be attributed to chain transfer. Using the Tg shift caused by changes in dose, a preliminary predictive relationship was developed to estimate the magnitude of the Tg DRE, enabling scale-up of process variables for polymers prone to dose rate effects.

Dynamic Characterization and Modeling of Potting Materials for Electronics Assemblies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Vasant; Lee, Gilbert; Santiago, Jaime

2015-06-01

Prediction of survivability of encapsulated electronic components subject to impact relies on accurate modeling. Both static and dynamic characterization of encapsulation material is needed to generate a robust material model. Current focus is on potting materials to mitigate high rate loading on impact. In this effort, encapsulation scheme consists of layers of polymeric material Sylgard 184 and Triggerbond Epoxy-20-3001. Experiments conducted for characterization of materials include conventional tension and compression tests, Hopkinson bar, dynamic material analyzer (DMA) and a non-conventional accelerometer based resonance tests for obtaining high frequency data. For an ideal material, data can be fitted to Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. A new temperature-time shift (TTS) macro was written to compare idealized temperature shift factor (WLF model) with experimental incremental shift factors. Deviations can be observed by comparison of experimental data with the model fit to determine the actual material behavior. Similarly, another macro written for obtaining Ogden model parameter from Hopkinson Bar tests indicates deviations from experimental high strain rate data. In this paper, experimental results for different materials used for mitigating impact, and ways to combine data from resonance, DMA and Hopkinson bar together with modeling refinements will be presented.

Deflecting Rayleigh surface acoustic waves by a meta-ridge with a gradient phase shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yanlong; Yang, Zhichun; Cao, Liyun

2018-05-01

We propose a non-resonant meta-ridge to deflect Rayleigh surface acoustic waves (RSAWs) according to the generalized Snell’s law with a gradient phase shift. The gradient phase shift is predicted by an analytical formula, which is related to the path length of the traveling wave. The non-resonant meta-ridge is designed based on the characteristics of the RSAW: it only propagates along the interface with a penetration depth, and it is dispersion-free with a constant phase velocity. To guarantee that the characteristics are still valid when RSAWs propagate in a three-dimensional (3D) structure, grooves are employed to construct the supercell of the meta-ridge. The horizontal length, inclined angle, and thickness of the ridge, along with the filling ratio of the groove, are parametrically examined step by step to investigate their influences on the propagation of RSAWs. The final 3D meta-ridges are designed theoretically and their capability of deflecting the incident RSAWs are validated numerically. The study presents a new method to control the trajectory of RSAWs, which will be conducive to developing innovative devices for surface acoustic waves.

Electronic Structure and Properties of Deformed Carbon Nanotubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Liu; Arnold, Jim (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A theoretical framework based on Huckel tight-binding model has been formulated to analyze the electronic structure of carbon nanotubes under uniform deformation. The model successfully quantifies the dispersion relation, density of states and bandgap change of nanotubes under uniform stretching, compression, torsion and bending. Our analysis shows that the shifting of the Fermi point away from the Brillouin zone vertices is the key reason for these changes. As a result of this shifting, the electronic structure of deformed carbon nanotubes varies dramatically depending on their chirality and deformation mode. Treating the Fermi point as a function of strain and tube chirality, the analytical solution preserves the concise form of undeformed carbon nanotubes. It predicts the shifting, merging and splitting of the Van Hove singularities in the density of states and the zigzag pattern of bandgap change under strains. Four orbital tight-binding simulations of carbon nanotubes under uniform stretching, compression, torsion and bending have been performed to verify the analytical solution. Extension to more complex systems are being performed to relate this analytical solution to the spectroscopic characterization, device performance and proposed quantum structures induced by the deformation. The limitations of this model will also be discussed.

Crown depth as a result of evolutionary games: decreasing solar angle should lead to shallower, not deeper crowns.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Peter Johannes

2014-06-01

There is a general notion in the literature that, with increasing latitude, trees have deeper crowns as a result of a lower solar elevation angle. However, these predictions are based on models that did not include the effects of competition for light between individuals. Here, I argue that there should be selection for trees to increase the height of the crown base, as this decreases shading by neighbouring trees, leading to an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS). Because the level of between-tree shading increases with decreasing solar angle, the predicted ESS will shift to higher crown base height. This argument is supported by a simulation model to check for the effects of crown shape and the change of light intensity that occurs with changing solar angle on model outcomes. So, the lower solar angle at higher latitudes would tend to select for shallower, and not deeper, crowns. This casts doubt on the common belief that a decreasing solar angle increases crown depth. More importantly, it shows that different assumptions about what should be optimized can lead to different predictions, not just for absolute trait values, but for the direction of selection itself. © 2014 The Author. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Proposed comprehensive ototoxicity monitoring program for VA healthcare (COMP-VA)

PubMed Central

Konrad-Martin, Dawn; Reavis, Kelly M.; McMillan, Garnett; Helt, Wendy J.; Dille, Marilyn

2015-01-01

Prevention and rehabilitation of hearing loss and tinnitus, the two most commonly awarded service-connected disabilities, are high priority initiatives in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). At least 4,000 Veterans, most with significant hearing loss, will receive cisplatin this year, with more than half sustaining permanent hearing shift and nearly 40% developing new tinnitus. With improved survivability following cancer treatment, Veterans treated with cisplatin are approached with the dual goals of effective treatment and preserved quality of life. This article describes COMP-VA, a comprehensive ototoxicity monitoring program developed for VA patients receiving cisplatin. The program includes an individualized pretreatment prediction model that identifies the likelihood of hearing shift given cisplatin dose and patient factors. It supports both manual and automated hearing testing with a newly developed portable audiometer capable of performing the recommended procedures on the chemotherapy unit during treatment. It also includes objective methods for identifying outer hair cell changes and predicting audiogram changes using distortion-product otoacoustic emissions. We describe this program of evidence-based ototoxicity monitoring protocols using a case example to give the reader an understanding of how this program would be applied, along with a plan for future work to accomplish the final stages of program development. PMID:24805896

Strong topographic sheltering effects lead to spatially complex treeline advance and increased forest density in a subtropical mountain region.

PubMed

Greenwood, Sarah; Chen, Jan-Chang; Chen, Chaur-Tzuhn; Jump, Alistair S

2014-12-01

Altitudinal treelines are typically temperature limited such that increasing temperatures linked to global climate change are causing upslope shifts of treelines worldwide. While such elevational increases are readily predicted based on shifting isotherms, at the regional level the realized response is often much more complex, with topography and local environmental conditions playing an important modifying role. Here, we used repeated aerial photographs in combination with forest inventory data to investigate changes in treeline position in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan over the last 60 years. A highly spatially variable upslope advance of treeline was identified in which topography is a major driver of both treeline form and advance. The changes in treeline position that we observed occurred alongside substantial increases in forest density, and lead to a large increase in overall forest area. These changes will have a significant impact on carbon stocking in the high altitude zone, while the concomitant decrease in alpine grassland area is likely to have negative implications for alpine species. The complex and spatially variable changes that we report highlight the necessity for considering local factors such as topography when attempting to predict species distributional responses to warming climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change-Induced Range Expansion of a Subterranean Rodent: Implications for Rangeland Management in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Su, Junhu; Aryal, Achyut; Nan, Zhibiao; Ji, Weihong

2015-01-01

Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios. PMID:26406891

Pion-nucleon scattering in covariant baryon chiral perturbation theory with explicit Delta resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, De-Liang; Siemens, D.; Bernard, V.; Epelbaum, E.; Gasparyan, A. M.; Gegelia, J.; Krebs, H.; Meißner, Ulf-G.

2016-05-01

We present the results of a third order calculation of the pion-nucleon scattering amplitude in a chiral effective field theory with pions, nucleons and delta resonances as explicit degrees of freedom. We work in a manifestly Lorentz invariant formulation of baryon chiral perturbation theory using dimensional regularization and the extended on-mass-shell renormalization scheme. In the delta resonance sector, the on mass-shell renormalization is realized as a complex-mass scheme. By fitting the low-energy constants of the effective Lagrangian to the S- and P -partial waves a satisfactory description of the phase shifts from the analysis of the Roy-Steiner equations is obtained. We predict the phase shifts for the D and F waves and compare them with the results of the analysis of the George Washington University group. The threshold parameters are calculated both in the delta-less and delta-full cases. Based on the determined low-energy constants, we discuss the pion-nucleon sigma term. Additionally, in order to determine the strangeness content of the nucleon, we calculate the octet baryon masses in the presence of decuplet resonances up to next-to-next-to-leading order in SU(3) baryon chiral perturbation theory. The octet baryon sigma terms are predicted as a byproduct of this calculation.