Science.gov

Sample records for short-term climate variability

  1. EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

    SciTech Connect

    Joseph H. Hartman

    1999-09-01

    This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern

  2. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for

  3. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moeller, Christopher C.; Gunshor, Mathew M.; Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan D.; Rouse, Lawrence J.; Frey, Herbert V. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact

  4. Recurring flood distribution patterns related to short-term Holocene climatic variability.

    PubMed

    Benito, Gerardo; Macklin, Mark G; Panin, Andrei; Rossato, Sandro; Fontana, Alessandro; Jones, Anna F; Machado, Maria J; Matlakhova, Ekaterina; Mozzi, Paolo; Zielhofer, Christoph

    2015-11-09

    Millennial- and multi-centennial scale climate variability during the Holocene has been well documented, but its impact on the distribution and timing of extreme river floods has yet to be established. Here we present a meta-analysis of more than 2000 radiometrically dated flood units to reconstruct centennial-scale Holocene flood episodes in Europe and North Africa. Our data analysis shows a general increase in flood frequency after 5000 cal. yr BP consistent with a weakening in zonal circulation over the second half of the Holocene, and with an increase in winter insolation. Multi-centennial length phases of flooding in UK and central Europe correspond with periods of minimum solar irradiance, with a clear trend of increasing flood frequency over the last 1000 years. Western Mediterranean regions show synchrony of flood episodes associated with negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation that are out-of-phase with those evident within the eastern Mediterranean. This long-term flood record reveals complex but geographically highly interconnected climate-flood relationships, and provides a new framework to understand likely future spatial changes of flood frequency.

  5. The Role of Central and High Asia in Northern Hemisphere Short-term Climate Variability - a Paleoclimate Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalett, B.; Oches, E. A.; Lai, Z.; Endlicher, W.

    2010-12-01

    Past and present climate dynamics, i.e. large-scale ocean circulation and coupled synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns, associated with the Eurasian continent are well studied and receive ongoing scientific interest. However, the impact of intrahemispheric-scale climate variability on the entire Eurasian landmass, as well as the self-generated effects of the continent on the global climate system, is still a matter of considerable debate. While western Atlantic polar and tropical air masses penetrate into the continent and are modified and transformed as they cross Eurasia, the interior regions of Eurasia strongly influence Earth’s climate system. Significant cooling and heating of Central and High Asia (Tibetan Plateau) drive interactions between atmosphere and ocean processes and regulate teleconnection patterns of the Northern Hemisphere. This paper utilizes high resolution particle size analyses from the Central Asian loess sequence at Remisowka, Kazakhstan, to reconstruct the dynamics of past synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns and aeolian dust transport within interior Eurasia since the onset of the last interglacial period. The observed dynamics in aeolian dust transport (particle size record) closely mirror δ18O and fine dust variations seen in Greenland ice cores, suggesting a correlation with short-term climate oscillations (Dansgaard-Oeschger - DO events) recorded therein. An Asian origin of fine aeolian dust preserved in Greenland ice cores has been discussed previously, and recent papers reveal a close link between Central and East Asian aeolian dust dynamics and DO events recorded in Greenland ice cores. The onsets of individual DO events were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition [e.g., Steffensen et al. (2008), Science 321]. In this context, our data represent the first Central Asian aeolian dust record in which DO events are recorded, providing a means to verify hypothesized links between short-term climate

  6. Long Term Seasonality Changes and Short Term Climate Variability Recorded in Eurasian Loess: Examples from Serbia, Romania, Kazakhstan, and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalett, B.; Oches, E. A.; Haam, E.; Lai, Z. P.; Endlicher, W.

    2012-04-01

    the dust transport record from numerous sites across Eurasia, the data reveal distinct differences in short-term climate variability along the studied transect from SE Europe over Central Asia to China. In Central and East Asia the observed dynamics in aeolian dust transport closely mirror δ18O and fine dust variations seen in Greenland ice cores, suggesting a correlation with short-term climate oscillations (DO events) recorded therein. An Asian origin of fine aeolian dust preserved in Greenland ice cores has been discussed previously, and recent papers reveal a close link between Asian aeolian dust dynamics and DO events recorded in Greenland ice cores. In this context, the presented data represent the first Central and East Asian aeolian dust records in which DO events are recorded, providing a means to verify hypothesized links between short-term climate variability recorded in Greenland and associated climate dynamics at Asian dust source areas. Ultimately, the data extend existing theories, suggesting that the Central and High Asian mountains are a crucial element within the sensitive glacier-desert-dust response system in interior Eurasia and may be considered a pacemaker of suborbital global climate changes and an initiator of abrupt climate oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere.

  7. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  8. Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

    2015-05-01

    A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

  9. Tree ring isotopes of beech and spruce in response to short-term climate variability across Central European sites: Common and contrasting physiological mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigt, Rosemarie; Klesse, Stefan; Treydte, Kerstin; Frank, David; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf T. W.

    2016-04-01

    The combined study of tree-ring width and stable C and O isotopes provides insight in the coherences between carbon allocation during stem growth and the preceding conditions of gas exchange and formation of photosynthates as all influenced by environmental variation. In this large-scale study comprising 10 sites across a range of climate gradients (temperature, precipitation) throughout Central Europe, we investigated tree-rings in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) trees. The sampling design included larger and smaller trees. The short-term, i.e. year-to-year, variability in the isotope time series over 100 yrs was analyzed in relation to tree-ring growth and climate variation. The generally strong correlation between the year-to-year differences in δ13C (corrected for the atmospheric shift due to 13C-depleted CO2 from fossil combustion) and δ18O across most sites emphasized the role of stomatal conductance in controlling leaf gas exchange. However, the correlation between both isotopes decreased during some periods. At several sites this reduction in correlation was particularly pronounced during recent decades. This suggests a decoupling between stomatal and photosynthetic responses to environmental conditions on the one hand, and carbon allocation to stem tissue on the other hand. Variability in the isotopic ratio largely responded to summer climate, but was weakly correlated to annual stem growth. In contrast, climate sensitivity of radial growth in both species was rather site-dependent, and was strongest at the driest (in terms of soil water capacity) site. We will also present results of isotope responses with respect to extreme climate events. Understanding the underlying physiological mechanisms controlling the short-term variation in tree-ring signals will help to assess and more precisely constrain the possible range of growth performance of these ecologically and economically important tree species under future climate

  10. Impacts of long- and short-term climate variability on terrestrial biogenic emissions and their influence on the remote tropical troposphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monks, S. A.; Arnold, S.; Guenther, A. B.; Emmons, L. K.; Carpenter, L.; Read, K.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial vegetation emits a wide range of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) into the atmosphere (~1150 TgC/yr), which accounts for ~90% of total VOC surface emissions. Emissions of BVOC are largely dependent on environmental factors such as sunlight and temperature, which makes them sensitive to both long-term and short-term changes in the climate system. ENSO is well-known to have global impacts on temperature and precipitation, and therefore has the potential to impact regional BVOC emissions on inter-annual time-scales. In addition to this, increased global mean temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past few decades may also have affected BVOC emissions. Once in the atmosphere, these compounds have the ability to influence global and regional atmospheric chemistry and climate through impacts on the hydroxyl radical, ozone, particulate matter and methane lifetime. We use the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2) to investigate both long-term changes and inter-annual variability of BVOC emissions over a 50-year period at regional and global spatial-scales. This is done by considering the impacts of increasing temperatures and CO2 concentrations on long-term emissions of BVOC separately, in addition to using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to investigate the regional response in emissions due to natural ENSO variability. Global composites of ENSO-positive and ENSO-negative phase emissions are then used to drive global atmospheric chemistry simulations using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). Through comparisons with 6 years of measurements from the Cape Verde observatory in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, we explore the role of inter-annual variability in terrestrial biogenic emissions in controlling the observed variability in methanol, acetone and acetaldehyde in the remote tropical atmosphere. By accounting for inter-annual changes in

  11. Asymmetric features of short-term blood pressure variability.

    PubMed

    Guzik, Przemyslaw; Piskorski, Jaroslaw; Krauze, Tomasz; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Wykretowicz, Andrzej; Wysocki, Henryk

    2010-11-01

    Prolongations of cardiac cycles have a significantly larger contribution to short-term heart rate variability than shortenings--this is called heart rate asymmetry. Our aim is to establish the existence of blood pressure asymmetry phenomenon, which has not been done so far. We used 30-min resting continuous recordings of finger pressure waveforms from 227 healthy young volunteers (19-31 years old; 97 female), and performed Poincaré plot analysis of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to quantify the effect. Median contribution of SBP increases (C(i)) to short-term blood pressure variability was 52.8% (inter-quartile range: 50.9-55.1%) and median number of SBP increases (N(i)) was 48.8% (inter-quartile range: 47.2-50.1%). The C(i)>50% was found in 82% (P<0.0001; binomial test) and N(i)<50% in 75% (P<0.0001) of the subjects. Although SBP increases are significantly less abundant than reductions, their contribution to short-term blood pressure variability is significantly larger, which means that short-term blood pressure variability is asymmetric. SBP increases and reductions have unequal contribution to short-term blood pressure variability at supine rest in young healthy people. As this asymmetric behavior of blood pressure variability is present in most of the healthy studied people at rest, it can be concluded that blood pressure asymmetry is a physiological phenomenon.

  12. Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

    2016-01-01

    Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic

  13. Local short-term variability in solar irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.; Heinemann, Detlev

    2016-05-01

    Characterizing spatiotemporal irradiance variability is important for the successful grid integration of increasing numbers of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Using 1 Hz data recorded by as many as 99 pyranometers during the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE), we analyze field variability of clear-sky index k* (i.e., irradiance normalized to clear-sky conditions) and sub-minute k* increments (i.e., changes over specified intervals of time) for distances between tens of meters and about 10 km. By means of a simple classification scheme based on k* statistics, we identify overcast, clear, and mixed sky conditions, and demonstrate that the last of these is the most potentially problematic in terms of short-term PV power fluctuations. Under mixed conditions, the probability of relatively strong k* increments of ±0.5 is approximately twice as high compared to increment statistics computed without conditioning by sky type. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation structures of k* increment fields differ considerably between sky types. While the profiles for overcast and clear skies mostly resemble the predictions of a simple model published by , this is not the case for mixed conditions. As a proxy for the smoothing effects of distributed PV, we finally show that spatial averaging mitigates variability in k* less effectively than variability in k* increments, for a spatial sensor density of 2 km-2.

  14. Finding Short-Term Variability in Methanol Masers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonin, Samuel; Barott, W. C.; Catanach, T.

    2012-05-01

    The Allen Telescope Array (ATA) performed 53 observations of 6.7 GHz methanol masers between July 2010 and January 2011 in an effort to identify short-timescale variability. With the notable exception of Weisberg et al. (2005), few analyses have been performed analyzing variability in masers on timescales of minutes or less. This work is aimed both at providing additional data (including refined positions) on the catalog of observed sources as well as identifying the prevalence and cause of short-term phenomena. Observations utilized both the ATA correlator (for mapping) and beamformer (for recording voltage time series). A combination of Fast-Fourier Transforms and Continuous Wavelet Transforms are applied to channelized power series waterfalls) in this investigation. Wavelet analysis can be thought of as a generalization of Fourier analysis that allows us to examine non-stationary characteristics of the spectra. The survey included both short (10 minute), long (60 minute), and follow-up observations on candidate targets. Analysis so far has identified three variable sources out of 43 distinct objects that were observed. These objects exhibit significant variation on the order of several minutes, are consistent in follow-up observations, and we have ruled out instrumental variation. Future and ongoing work includes identifying the source of this variation as intrinsic to the source or a property of the ISM. Shorter time-scales will be investigated using a combination of techniques, including total power variation, pulse searching (in an attempt to find pulsars), and phase-shift demodulation techniques. The case for SETI analysis of these data is given, for example, by Cordes (1993), who suggested that extraterrestrial intelligences could use masers to amplify interstellar signals.This project was funded by the National Science Foundation Grant AST0852095. [1] Weisberg J. M. et al. (2005) Science, 309, 5731. [2] Cordes J. M. (1993) Astron. Soc. Pacific Conf. Series

  15. Reducing variability in short term orbital lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebschull, Christopher; Flegel, Sven Kevin; Braun, Vitali; Gelhaus, Johannes; Möckel, Marek; Wiedemann, Carsten; Vörsmann, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Within the last year three major re-entries occurred. The satellites UARS, ROSAT and Phobos-Grunt entered Earth's atmosphere with fragments reaching the surface. Due to a number of uncertainties in propagating an object's trajectory the exact place and time of a satellite's re-entry is hard to determine. Major influences when predicting the re-entry time are the changing precision of the available orbital data, the satellite's ballistic coefficient, the activity of the sun which influences the Earth's atmosphere and the underlying quality of the atmospheric model. In this paper a method is presented which can reduce the variability in short-term orbital lifetime prediction induced by fluctuating orbital data accuracies. A re-entry campaign is used as a reference for this purpose. For a window of a few weeks before the re-entry the position data of a synthetic object is disturbed considering different degrees of orbital data errors. As a result different predictions will exist for the generated position data of a given day. Using a regression algorithm on the available data an average position is obtained, which is then used for the orbital lifetime prediction. The effect of this measure is a more consistent prediction of the orbital lifetime. The paper concludes with the comparison of the generated re-entry windows in various test cases for the original and the averaged data.

  16. Short-term Variability of Extinction by Broadband Stellar Photometry

    SciTech Connect

    Musat, I.C.; Ellingson, R.G.

    2005-03-18

    Aerosol optical depth variation over short-term time intervals is determined from broadband observations of stars with a whole sky imager. The main difficulty in such measurements consists of accurately separating the star flux value from the non-stellar diffuse skylight. Using correction method to overcome this difficulty, the monochromatic extinction at the ground due to aerosols is extracted from heterochromatic measurements. A form of closure is achieved by comparison with simultaneous or temporally close measurements with other instruments, and the total error of the method, as a combination of random error of measurements and systematic error of calibration and model, is assessed as being between 2.6 and 3% rms.

  17. Acute psychological stress induces short-term variable immune response.

    PubMed

    Breen, Michael S; Beliakova-Bethell, Nadejda; Mujica-Parodi, Lilianne R; Carlson, Joshua M; Ensign, Wayne Y; Woelk, Christopher H; Rana, Brinda K

    2016-03-01

    In spite of advances in understanding the cross-talk between the peripheral immune system and the brain, the molecular mechanisms underlying the rapid adaptation of the immune system to an acute psychological stressor remain largely unknown. Conventional approaches to classify molecular factors mediating these responses have targeted relatively few biological measurements or explored cross-sectional study designs, and therefore have restricted characterization of stress-immune interactions. This exploratory study analyzed transcriptional profiles and flow cytometric data of peripheral blood leukocytes with physiological (endocrine, autonomic) measurements collected throughout the sequence of events leading up to, during, and after short-term exposure to physical danger in humans. Immediate immunomodulation to acute psychological stress was defined as a short-term selective up-regulation of natural killer (NK) cell-associated cytotoxic and IL-12 mediated signaling genes that correlated with increased cortisol, catecholamines and NK cells into the periphery. In parallel, we observed down-regulation of innate immune toll-like receptor genes and genes of the MyD88-dependent signaling pathway. Correcting gene expression for an influx of NK cells revealed a molecular signature specific to the adrenal cortex. Subsequently, focusing analyses on discrete groups of coordinately expressed genes (modules) throughout the time-series revealed immune stress responses in modules associated to immune/defense response, response to wounding, cytokine production, TCR signaling and NK cell cytotoxicity which differed between males and females. These results offer a spring-board for future research towards improved treatment of stress-related disease including the impact of stress on cardiovascular and autoimmune disorders, and identifies an immune mechanism by which vulnerabilities to these diseases may be gender-specific.

  18. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  19. Control group response variability in short-term toxicity tests

    SciTech Connect

    Gast, L.C.; Shimp, C.; Wang, Q.; Shukla, R.; Fulk, F.

    1995-12-31

    The US EPA`s National Reference Toxicant Database (NRTDB) has afforded an excellent opportunity to examine and document variability in responses within control groups (i.e. zero concentration of the toxicant.) The NRTDB has compiled acute and chronic reference toxicant test results for eight species and currently contains results for 32 laboratories and generally eight to ten tests for a species within each laboratory. The Ceriodaphnia dubia Survival and Reproduction test and the Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow) Survival and Growth test are the most frequently represented chronic tests with 331 and 144 sets of test data, respectively. For this presentation, Ceriodaphnia dubia reproduction data, expressed as total numbers of young in the test period, and fathead minnow survival and growth data were analyzed using a variance components model. The information regarding the control population is useful in examining the sources of inter and intralaboratory variability of chronic testing. In addition, this control population response variability information will be valuable for characterizing what can be termed as ``practically equivalent responses`` between a control and an effluent. The preliminary analysis indicates considerable between-test variability; however, this variability is not consistent across laboratories. Results of further exploration on this issue will be presented.

  20. Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanna, A. F.

    1982-01-01

    A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

  1. Statistical adjustment of simulated inter-annual variability in an investigation of short-term temperature trend distributions over Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grenier, Patrick; Chaumont, Diane; de Elía, Ramón

    2015-04-01

    Plausible climate trajectories towards warmer temperatures are made up of a succession of positive and negative short-term trends. Cooling trends over short durations (~ 5 to 25 years) are thus to be expected, and related probabilities have to rely on simulations from physically-based climate models. However, because simulations often present offsets in many statistical properties relative to observations, it is important to address the issue of statistical adjustment prior to characterizing expected short-term trend distributions. In this paper, we discuss the impact of statistically adjusting inter-annual variability on short-term cooling probability for locations across Canada and during the current period (2006-2035). Two methods are considered, one that uses a transfer function based on the dissimilarity between simulated and observed detrended annual temperature values (residuals) during a calibration period, and another that uses an autoregressive model of the observational residuals for generating variability. Long-term trends remain invariant in both methods. Results show that although short-term trends in individual simulations are in some cases highly impacted, cooling probabilities based on a multi-model ensemble are only slightly altered by each of the two methods, due to compensational effects. In summary, this paper presents an application where final results are robust to how simulated inter-annual variability is handled.

  2. Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, H. G.; Mukkamala, R.; Moody, G. B.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

  3. Metabolic Syndrome and Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Yaw-Wen; Lin, Jin-Ding; Chen, Wei-Liang; Yen, Chia-Feng; Loh, Ching-Hui; Fang, Wen-Hui; Wu, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Heart rate variability (HRV) represents autonomic functioning, and reduced HRV significantly increases cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the present paper are to assess the prevalence of MetS in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), the difference in short-term HRV…

  4. Short-term climate changes in the Holsteinian Interglacial - EGU2012-132

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitychoruk, J.; Bińka, K.; Ruppert, H.; Tudryn, A.

    2012-04-01

    Oxygen and carbon stable isotopes from fossil lake sediments of the Holsteinian age (eastern Poland) give evidence for the abrupt climate shifts in this interglacial that coincide with the changes in vegetation inferred from palaeobotanical data. Especially changes of the stable isotope ratios as well as decrease in the carbonate content in the deposits and increase in silicate redeposited from the area around the lake are synchronous with the short-term climatic deteriorations within the interglacial pollen flora. Two distinct climate shifts are recorded in the Holsteinian. The first one is marked by the very characteristic pine-birch cold phase after the yew (Taxus) domination that is reported from numerous pollen diagrams from Central Europe. This distinct cooling resembles a phenomenon known as 8.2 ka event in the Holocene, when waters of the Agassiz Lake in North America drained into the Atlantic Ocean (Koutsodendris et al. 2010). Enormous volumes of freshwater from melting of the Laurentian ice-sheet caused disturbances in the Gulf Stream and as a result some decrease in regional temperatures. The second distinct cooling of a lower rank took place within the younger part of the climatic optimum of the Holsteinian. It is relatively less known, because most often pollen records lack sufficient temporal resolution needed to identify this event. A well documented cooling in the Holsteinian deposits from Dethlingen, northern Germany (Koutsodendris et al. 2010) and from the Ossówka, eastern Poland (Nitychoruk et al. 2005) are exceptional. In the sequence from Dethlingen, a distinct increase in the percentage of pioneer trees is accompanied by a lower content of temperate taxa. At Ossówka, the shift of climate is noted as the rise of ratio of oxygen and carbon isotopes. According to Nitychoruk (2000) the cold event is coincident with volcanic eruptions evidenced by volcanic ash found in the lake deposits at that time. Literature Koutsodendris, A., Müller, U

  5. The Gaia spectrophotometric standard stars survey - III. Short-term variability monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marinoni, S.; Pancino, E.; Altavilla, G.; Bellazzini, M.; Galleti, S.; Tessicini, G.; Valentini, G.; Cocozza, G.; Ragaini, S.; Braga, V.; Bragaglia, A.; Federici, L.; Schuster, W. J.; Carrasco, J. M.; Castro, A.; Figueras, F.; Jordi, C.

    2016-11-01

    We present the results of the short-term constancy monitoring of candidate Gaia Spectrophotometric Standard Stars (SPSS). We obtained time series of typically 1.24 h - with sampling periods from 1-3 min to a few hours, depending on the case - to monitor the constancy of our candidate SPSS down to 10 mmag, as required for the calibration of Gaia photometric data. We monitored 162 out of a total of 212 SPSS candidates. The observing campaign started in 2006 and finished in 2015, using 143 observing nights on nine different instruments covering both hemispheres. Using differential photometry techniques, we built light curves with a typical precision of 4 mmag, depending on the data quality. As a result of our constancy assessment, 150 SPSS candidates were validated against short-term variability, and only 12 were rejected because of variability including some widely used flux standards such as BD+174708, SA 105-448, 1740346, and HD 37725.

  6. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions.

  7. Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Pickett, Evan J.; Thomson, David L.; Li, Teng A.; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  8. Fetal autonomic brain age scores, segmented heart rate variability analysis, and traditional short term variability

    PubMed Central

    Hoyer, Dirk; Kowalski, Eva-Maria; Schmidt, Alexander; Tetschke, Florian; Nowack, Samuel; Rudolph, Anja; Wallwitz, Ulrike; Kynass, Isabelle; Bode, Franziska; Tegtmeyer, Janine; Kumm, Kathrin; Moraru, Liviu; Götz, Theresa; Haueisen, Jens; Witte, Otto W.; Schleußner, Ekkehard; Schneider, Uwe

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances of fetal autonomic brain development can be evaluated from fetal heart rate patterns (HRP) reflecting the activity of the autonomic nervous system. Although HRP analysis from cardiotocographic (CTG) recordings is established for fetal surveillance, temporal resolution is low. Fetal magnetocardiography (MCG), however, provides stable continuous recordings at a higher temporal resolution combined with a more precise heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. A direct comparison of CTG and MCG based HRV analysis is pending. The aims of the present study are: (i) to compare the fetal maturation age predicting value of the MCG based fetal Autonomic Brain Age Score (fABAS) approach with that of CTG based Dawes-Redman methodology; and (ii) to elaborate fABAS methodology by segmentation according to fetal behavioral states and HRP. We investigated MCG recordings from 418 normal fetuses, aged between 21 and 40 weeks of gestation. In linear regression models we obtained an age predicting value of CTG compatible short term variability (STV) of R2 = 0.200 (coefficient of determination) in contrast to MCG/fABAS related multivariate models with R2 = 0.648 in 30 min recordings, R2 = 0.610 in active sleep segments of 10 min, and R2 = 0.626 in quiet sleep segments of 10 min. Additionally segmented analysis under particular exclusion of accelerations (AC) and decelerations (DC) in quiet sleep resulted in a novel multivariate model with R2 = 0.706. According to our results, fMCG based fABAS may provide a promising tool for the estimation of fetal autonomic brain age. Beside other traditional and novel HRV indices as possible indicators of developmental disturbances, the establishment of a fABAS score normogram may represent a specific reference. The present results are intended to contribute to further exploration and validation using independent data sets and multicenter research structures. PMID:25505399

  9. Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hou, Arthur Y.

    2002-01-01

    The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model

  10. Antihypertensive drug classes have different effects on short-term blood pressure variability in essential hypertension.

    PubMed

    Levi-Marpillat, Natacha; Macquin-Mavier, Isabelle; Tropeano, Anne-Isabelle; Parati, Gianfranco; Maison, Patrick

    2014-06-01

    Increased blood pressure variability (BPV) contributes to end-organ damage, cardiovascular events and mortality associated with hypertension. In a cohort of 2780 hypertensive patients treated by either calcium channel blockers (CCBs), diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) or β-blockers alone or in combination, we compared indices of short-term BPV according to the different treatments. Short-term BPV was calculated as the standard deviation (s.d.) of 24 h, daytime or nighttime systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). Short-term BPV was compared between patients treated with a given antihypertensive class of interest (alone or in combination) and those not treated with this class, after controlling for ambulatory average blood pressure, heart rate, age, gender, propensity scores and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. Patients treated with CCBs (n=1247) or diuretics (n=1486) alone, or in addition to other drugs had significant lower s.d. of 24-h SBP compared with those not treated with these classes (mean differences in s.d. -0.50±0.50 mm Hg, P=0.001 and -0.17±0.15 mm Hg, P=0.05, respectively). There was no significant difference regarding treatment with or without ARBs, ACEIs and β-blockers. The combinations of CCBs with diuretics or ARBs on top of other treatments resulted in a lower 24-h SBP variability (mean differences in s.d. -0.43±0.17 mm Hg, P=0.02 and -0.44±0.19 mm Hg, P=0.005 vs. other combination uses, respectively). Antihypertensive drug classes have differential effects on short-term BPV with a greater reduction in patients treated with CCBs and diuretics. The combinations of CCBs with diuretics may be the most efficient treatments in lowering BPV.

  11. Metabolic syndrome and short-term heart rate variability in adults with intellectual disabilities.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yaw-Wen; Lin, Jin-Ding; Chen, Wei-Liang; Yen, Chia-Feng; Loh, Ching-Hui; Fang, Wen-Hui; Wu, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Heart rate variability (HRV) represents autonomic functioning, and reduced HRV significantly increases cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the present paper are to assess the prevalence of MetS in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), the difference in short-term HRV between the healthy and ID population, and the association of short-term HRV with MetS. In this study, we analyzed 129 ID subjects who participated in routine health check-ups in October 2010. We measured their metabolic components and evaluated the relationships of MetS with short-term HRV indices. The study found that MetS and obesity are common in persons with ID. ID subjects have significantly lower HRV than healthy adults, and persons with ID persons with MetS have significantly lower HRV than ID subjects without MetS. The individual components of MetS are differentially associated with HRV in ID men and women. Metabolic syndrome adversely affects autonomic cardiac control, and reduced autonomic cardiac control could contribute to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular events in individuals who exhibit metabolic syndrome. Sex differences in vagal activity and sympathovagal balance may partly explain the greater increase in cardiovascular risk associated with MetS in ID women compared with ID men.

  12. Increased Short-Term Beat-To-Beat Variability of QT Interval in Patients with Acromegaly

    PubMed Central

    Orosz, Andrea; Csajbók, Éva; Czékus, Csilla; Gavallér, Henriette; Magony, Sándor; Valkusz, Zsuzsanna; Várkonyi, Tamás T.; Nemes, Attila; Baczkó, István; Forster, Tamás; Wittmann, Tibor; Papp, Julius Gy.; Varró, András; Lengyel, Csaba

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases, including ventricular arrhythmias are responsible for increased mortality in patients with acromegaly. Acromegaly may cause repolarization abnormalities such as QT prolongation and impairment of repolarization reserve enhancing liability to arrhythmia. The aim of this study was to determine the short-term beat-to-beat QT variability in patients with acromegaly. Thirty acromegalic patients (23 women and 7 men, mean age±SD: 55.7±10.4 years) were compared with age- and sex-matched volunteers (mean age 51.3±7.6 years). Cardiac repolarization parameters including frequency corrected QT interval, PQ and QRS intervals, duration of terminal part of T waves (Tpeak-Tend) and short-term variability of QT interval were evaluated. All acromegalic patients and controls underwent transthoracic echocardiographic examination. Autonomic function was assessed by means of five standard cardiovascular reflex tests. Comparison of the two groups revealed no significant differences in the conventional ECG parameters of repolarization (QT: 401.1±30.6 ms vs 389.3±16.5 ms, corrected QT interval: 430.1±18.6 ms vs 425.6±17.3 ms, QT dispersion: 38.2±13.2 ms vs 36.6±10.2 ms; acromegaly vs control, respectively). However, short-term beat-to-beat QT variability was significantly increased in acromegalic patients (4.23±1.03 ms vs 3.02±0.80, P<0.0001). There were significant differences between the two groups in the echocardiographic dimensions (left ventricular end diastolic diameter: 52.6±5.4 mm vs 48.0±3.9 mm, left ventricular end systolic diameter: 32.3±5.2 mm vs 29.1±4.4 mm, interventricular septum: 11.1±2.2 mm vs 8.8±0.7 mm, posterior wall of left ventricle: 10.8±1.4 mm vs 8.9±0.7 mm, P<0.05, respectively). Short-term beat-to-beat QT variability was elevated in patients with acromegaly in spite of unchanged conventional parameters of ventricular repolarization. This enhanced temporal QT variability may be an early indicator of increased liability to

  13. Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Landa, Martin; Neuman, Martin; Kožant, Petr; Muller, Miloslav

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this contribution is to introduce the recently started three year's project named "Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins and its Influence on Water Resources Management". Its main goal is to elaborate a methodology and online utility for deriving short-term design precipitation series, which could be utilized by a broad community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. The outcomes of the project will especially be helpful in modelling hydrological or soil erosion problems when designing common measures for promoting water retention or landscape drainage systems in or out of the scope of Landscape consolidation projects. The precipitation scenarios will be derived from 10 years of observed data from point gauging stations and radar data. The analysis is focused on events' return period, rainfall total amount, internal intensity distribution and spatial distribution over the area of Czech Republic. The methodology will account for the choice of the simulation model. Several representatives of practically oriented models will be tested for the output sensitivity to selected precipitation scenario comparing to variability connected with other inputs uncertainty. The variability of the outputs will also be assessed in the context of economic impacts in design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research was supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, using data provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

  14. Short-Term Variability in Apnea-Hypopnea Index during Extended Home Portable Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Prasad, Bharati; Usmani, Sarah; Steffen, Alana D.; Van Dongen, Hans P.A.; Pack, Francis M.; Strakovsky, Inna; Staley, Bethany; Dinges, David; Maislin, Greg; Pack, Allan I.; Weaver, Terri E.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) is the primary measure used to confirm a diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). However, there may be significant night-to-night variability (NNV) in AHI, limiting the value of AHI in clinical decision-making related to OSA management. We examined short-term NNV in AHI and its predictors during home portable monitoring (PM). Methods: Single center prospective observational study of patients (n = 84) with newly diagnosed OSA by polysomnography (PSG) AHI ≥ 5/h. All participants underwent 2 to 8 consecutive nights of PM. Results: Participants (n = 84) were middle-aged (47 ± 8.3 y, mean ± standard deviation; SD), including 28 women, with mean AHI on baseline PSG (AHIPSG) of 30.1 ± 31.8. Mean AHI on PM (AHIPM) was 27.4 ± 23.7. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for AHIPM in the entire sample was 0.73 (95% CI 0.66–0.8), indicating that 27% of the variability in AHIPM was due to intra-individual factors. Mild severity of OSA, defined by AHIPSG 5–15/h, was associated with higher NNV (likelihood ratio, −0.4 ± 0.14; p = 0.006) and absence of comorbidity showed a trend towards higher NNV (−0.54 ± 0.27, p = 0.05) on AHIPM. Conclusions: The intraindividual short-term NNV in AHIPM is higher in mild versus moderately severe OSA, even in the home setting, where first-night effect is not expected. Larger studies of NNV focused on patients with mild OSA are needed to identify characteristics that predict need and timing for repeated diagnostic testing and treatment. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 787. Citation: Prasad B, Usmani S, Steffen AD, Van Dongen HP, Pack FM, Strakovsky I, Staley B, Dinges D, Maislin G, Pack AI, Weaver TE. Short-term variability in apnea-hypopnea index during extended home portable monitoring. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(6):855–863. PMID:26857059

  15. Anatomy of the AGN in NGC 5548: the short-term variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Gesu, L.; Kaastra, J.; NGC 5548 Collaboration

    2014-07-01

    After a very successful multi-satellite campaign on Mrk 509 in 2009, we conducted a similar campaign on the AGN NGC 5548 in 2013. During the latter the source appeared unusually strongly absorbed in the soft X-rays, and signatures of strong outflows were also present in the UV. While a talk giving an overview of the campaign (PI: J. Kaastra) is also proposed at this conference, here we focus on the short term (˜months) variability of the source during the campaign. The short time-scale behaviour of the source is likely due to variations in the obscuring wind, that may consist of two gas phases. This study allows us to investigate the geometry of the system around the black hole.

  16. Therapeutic alliance and cohesion variables as predictors of outcome in short-term group psychotherapy.

    PubMed

    Joyce, Anthony S; Piper, William E; Ogrodniczuk, John S

    2007-07-01

    The current study explored the relative ability of aggregate therapeutic alliance and cohesion variables to predict short-term group therapy outcome. Data were collected from a comparative trial of two forms of time-limited group psychotherapy for complicated grief (Piper, McCallum, Joyce, Rosie, & Ogrodniczuk, 2001). The therapeutic alliance and elements of the cohesion construct were measured from the perspectives of each patient and the group therapist at intervals during the groups; scores were aggregated across assessments. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses, adjusting for the effects of treatment approach (interpretive vs. supportive) and specific group membership, demonstrated that the patient-rated alliance was a consistent predictor of outcome. Two cohesion measures, reflecting other participants' (therapist, other members) views of the patient's "fit" with the group, also accounted for variation in outcome. Implications of the findings for research and clinical practice, and the limitations of the measurement approach taken in this study, are considered.

  17. Detection of stratospheric HNO3 and NO2 response to short-term solar ultraviolet variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keating, G. M.; Nicholson, J., III; Brasseur, G.; de Rudder, A.; Schmailzl, U.

    1986-07-01

    It is pointed out that variations in the solar ultraviolet irradiance with a period equal to or approximately one-half of the rotation period of the sun are currently observed by satellite monitoring. Information regarding the response of stratospheric species to solar ultraviolet variability is indispensable for an understanding of the photochemical behavior of the middle atmosphere. Relations are considered between LIMS (limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere) measurements of HNO3 and NO2, and the SBUV (solar backscatter ultraviolet) measurements of short-term variations in 205-nm radiation. It is found that the response of HNO3 is much stronger than, but in the opposite sense to the ozone response, while the NO2 response is in the opposite sense to the HNO3 response. Model calculations predict large variations in HNO3 over the 11-yr solar cycle.

  18. Visibility graph analysis of very short-term heart rate variability during sleep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, F. Z.; Li, F. W.; Wang, J.; Yan, F. R.

    2016-09-01

    Based on a visibility-graph algorithm, complex networks were constructed from very short-term heart rate variability (HRV) during different sleep stages. Network measurements progressively changed from rapid eye movement (REM) sleep to light sleep and then deep sleep, exhibiting promising ability for sleep assessment. Abnormal activation of the cardiovascular controls with enhanced 'small-world' couplings and altered fractal organization during REM sleep indicates that REM could be a potential risk factor for adverse cardiovascular event, especially in males, older individuals, and people who are overweight. Additionally, an apparent influence of gender, aging, and obesity on sleep was demonstrated in healthy adults, which may be helpful for establishing expected sleep-HRV patterns in different populations.

  19. Rotational Properties of the Haumea Family Members and Candidates: Short-term Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirouin, Audrey; Sheppard, Scott S.; Noll, Keith S.; Moskovitz, Nicholas A.; Ortiz, Jose Luis; Doressoundiram, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Haumea is one of the most interesting and intriguing trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). It is a large, bright, fast rotator, and its spectrum indicates nearly pure water ice on the surface. It has at least two satellites and a dynamically related family of more than 10 TNOs with very similar proper orbital parameters and similar surface properties. The Haumean family is the only one currently known in the trans-Neptunian belt. Various models have been proposed, but the formation of the family remains poorly understood. In this work, we have investigated the rotational properties of the family members and unconfirmed family candidates with short-term variability studies, and report the most complete review to date. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of five family members and seven candidates. The mean rotational periods, from Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 6.27 ± 1.19 hr for the confirmed family members, 6.44 ± 1.16 hr for the candidates, and 7.65 ± 0.54 hr for other TNOs (without relation to the family). According to our study, there is a possibility that Haumea family members rotate faster than other TNOs; however, the sample of family members is still too limited for a secure conclusion. We also highlight the fast rotation of 2002 GH32. This object has a 0.36 ± 0.02 mag amplitude lightcurve and a rotational period of about 3.98 hr. Assuming 2002 GH32 is a triaxial object in hydrostatic equilibrium, we derive a lower limit to the density of 2.56 g cm-3. This density is similar to Haumea’s and much more dense than other small TNO densities.

  20. Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neveu, André

    2009-09-01

    In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

  1. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3–2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period. PMID:24379785

  2. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

  3. Microgravity alters respiratory sinus arrhythmia and short-term heart rate variability in humans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Migeotte, P-F; Prisk, G. Kim; Paiva, M.; West, J. B. (Principal Investigator)

    2003-01-01

    We studied heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in four male subjects before, during, and after 16 days of spaceflight. The electrocardiogram and respiration were recorded during two periods of 4 min controlled breathing at 7.5 and 15 breaths/min in standing and supine postures on the ground and in microgravity. Low (LF)- and high (HF)-frequency components of the short-term HRV (< or =3 min) were computed through Fourier spectral analysis of the R-R intervals. Early in microgravity, HR was decreased compared with both standing and supine positions and had returned to the supine value by the end of the flight. In microgravity, overall variability, the LF-to-HF ratio, and RSA amplitude and phase were similar to preflight supine values. Immediately postflight, HR increased by approximately 15% and remained elevated 15 days after landing. LF/HF was increased, suggesting an increased sympathetic control of HR standing. The overall variability and RSA amplitude in supine decreased postflight, suggesting that vagal tone decreased, which coupled with the decrease in RSA phase shift suggests that this was the result of an adaptation of autonomic control of HR to microgravity. In addition, these alterations persisted for at least 15 days after return to normal gravity (1G).

  4. Short-Term Variability and Predictors of Urinary Pentachlorophenol Levels in Ohio Preschool Children

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Marsha; Jones, Paul; Sobus, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a persistent and ubiquitous environmental contaminant. No published data exist on the temporal variability or important predictors of urinary PCP concentrations in young children. In this further analysis of study data, we have examined the associations between selected sociodemographic or lifestyle factors and urinary PCP concentrations in 115 preschool children over a 48-h period and assessed the 48-hour variability of urinary PCP levels in a subset of 15 children. Monitoring was performed at 115 homes and 16 daycares in Ohio (USA) in 2001. Questionnaires/diaries and spot urine samples were collected from each child. The median urinary PCP level was 0.8 ng/mL (range < 0.2–23.8 ng/mL). The intraclass correlation coefficient for urinary PCP was 0.42, which indicates fairly low reliability for a single sample over a 48-h period. In a multiple regression model, age of home and ln(creatinine levels) were significant predictors and sampling season, time spent outside, and pet ownership were marginally significant predictors of ln(urinary PCP levels), collectively explaining 29% of the variability of PCP in urine. To adequately assess short-term exposures of children to PCP, several spot urine measurements are likely needed as well as information regarding residence age, seasonality, time spent outdoors, and pet ownership. PMID:25594782

  5. Long and Short Term Variability of the Main Physical Parameters in the Coastal Area of the SE Baltic Proper

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mingelaite, Toma; Rukseniene, Viktorija; Dailidiene, Inga

    2015-04-01

    Keywords: SE Baltic Sea, coastal upwelling, IR Remote Sensing The memory of the ocean and seas of atmospheric forcing events contributes to the long-term climate change. Intensifying climate change processes in the North Atlantic region including Baltic Sea has drawn widespread interest, as a changing water temperature has ecological, economic and social impact in coastal areas of the Europe seas. In this work we analyse long and short term variability of the main physical parameters in the coastal area of the South Eastern Baltic Sea Proper. The analysis of long term variability is based on monitoring data measured in the South Eastern Baltic Sea for the last 50 years. The main focus of the long term variability is changes of hydro meteorological parameters relevant to the observed changes in the climate.The water salinity variations in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon, a shallow and enclosed sub-basin of the Baltic Sea, were analysed along with the time series of some related hydroclimatic factors. The short term water temperature and salinity variations were analysed with a strong focus on coastal upwelling events. Combining both remote sensing and in situ monitoring data physical parameters such as vertical salinity variations during upwelling events was analysed. The coastal upwelling in the SE Baltic Sea coast, depending on its scale and intensity, may lead to an intrusion of colder and saltier marine waters to the Curonian Lagoon resulting in hydrodynamic changes and pronounced temperature drop extending for 30-40 km further down the Lagoon. The study results show that increasing trends of water level, air and water temperature, and decreasing ice cover duration are related to the changes in meso-scale atmospheric circulation, and more specifically, to the changes in regional and local wind regime climate. That is in a good agreement with the increasing trends in local higher intensity of westerly winds, and with the winter

  6. Short-Term Temporal Variability in Airborne Bacterial and Fungal Populations▿

    PubMed Central

    Fierer, Noah; Liu, Zongzhi; Rodríguez-Hernández, Mari; Knight, Rob; Henn, Matthew; Hernandez, Mark T.

    2008-01-01

    Airborne microorganisms have been studied for centuries, but the majority of this research has relied on cultivation-dependent surveys that may not capture all of the microbial diversity in the atmosphere. As a result, our understanding of airborne microbial ecology is limited despite the relevance of airborne microbes to human health, various ecosystem functions, and environmental quality. Cultivation-independent surveys of small-subunit rRNA genes were conducted in order to identify the types of airborne bacteria and fungi found at a single site (Boulder, CO) and the temporal variability in the microbial assemblages over an 8-day period. We found that the air samples were dominated by ascomycete fungi of the Hypocreales order and a diverse array of bacteria, including members of the proteobacterial and Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides groups that are commonly found in comparable culture-independent surveys of airborne bacteria. Bacterium/fungus ratios varied by 2 orders of magnitude over the sampling period, and we observed large shifts in the phylogenetic diversity of bacteria present in the air samples collected on different dates, shifts that were not likely to be related to local meteorological conditions. We observed more phylogenetic similarity between bacteria collected from geographically distant sites than between bacteria collected from the same site on different days. These results suggest that outdoor air may harbor similar types of bacteria regardless of location and that the short-term temporal variability in airborne bacterial assemblages can be very large. PMID:17981945

  7. Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hittinger, Eric Stephen

    profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

  8. The Performance of Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in the Detection of Congestive Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Allan Kardec; Ohnishi, Noboru

    2016-01-01

    Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a cardiac disease associated with the decreasing capacity of the cardiac output. It has been shown that the CHF is the main cause of the cardiac death around the world. Some works proposed to discriminate CHF subjects from healthy subjects using either electrocardiogram (ECG) or heart rate variability (HRV) from long-term recordings. In this work, we propose an alternative framework to discriminate CHF from healthy subjects by using HRV short-term intervals based on 256 RR continuous samples. Our framework uses a matching pursuit algorithm based on Gabor functions. From the selected Gabor functions, we derived a set of features that are inputted into a hybrid framework which uses a genetic algorithm and k-nearest neighbour classifier to select a subset of features that has the best classification performance. The performance of the framework is analyzed using both Fantasia and CHF database from Physionet archives which are, respectively, composed of 40 healthy volunteers and 29 subjects. From a set of nonstandard 16 features, the proposed framework reaches an overall accuracy of 100% with five features. Our results suggest that the application of hybrid frameworks whose classifier algorithms are based on genetic algorithms has outperformed well-known classifier methods. PMID:27891509

  9. Connectivity clues from short-term variability in settlement and geochemical tags of mytilid mussels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fodrie, F. Joel; Becker, Bonnie J.; Levin, Lisa A.; Gruenthal, Kristen; McMillan, Pat A.

    2011-01-01

    The use of geochemical tags in calcified structures of fish and invertebrates is an exciting tool for investigating larval population connectivity. Tag evaluation over relatively short intervals (weeks) may detect environmental and ecological variability at a temporal scale highly relevant to larval transport and settlement. We collected newly settled mussels ( Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis) weekly during winter/spring of 2002 along the coast of San Diego, CA, USA, at sites on the exposed coast (SIO) and in a protected coastal bay (HI), to investigate temporal patterns of geochemical tags in mussel shells. Analyses of post-settlement shell via LA-ICP-MS revealed statistically significant temporal variability for all elements we examined (Mg, Mn, Cu, Sr, Cd, Ba, Pb and U). Despite this, our ability to distinguish multielemental signatures between sites was largely conserved. Throughout our 13-week study, SIO and HI mussels could be chemically distinguished from one another in 78-87% of all cases. Settlement varied between 2 and 27 settlers gram-byssus -1 week -1 at SIO and HI, and both sites were characterized by 2-3 weeks with "high" settlement. Geochemical tags recorded in early larval shell of newly settled mussels differed between "high" and "low" settlement weeks at both sites (MANOVA), driven by Mg and Sr at SIO (p = 0.013) and Sr, Cd, Ba and Pb at HI (p < 0.001). These data imply that shifts in larval sources or transport corridors were responsible for observed settlement variation, rather than increased larval production. In particular, increased settlement at HI was observed concurrent with the appearance of geochemical tags (e.g., elevated Cd), suggesting that those larvae were retained in upwelled water near the mouth of the bay. Such shifts may reflect short-term changes in connectivity among sites due to altered transport corridors, and influence the demography of local populations.

  10. Short-term variability on the surface of (1) Ceres⋆. A changing amount of water ice?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perna, D.; Kaňuchová, Z.; Ieva, S.; Fornasier, S.; Barucci, M. A.; Lantz, C.; Dotto, E.; Strazzulla, G.

    2015-03-01

    Context. The dwarf planet (1) Ceres - next target of the NASA Dawn mission - is the largest body in the asteroid main belt. Although several observations of this body have been performed so far, the presence of surface water ice is still questioned. Aims: Our goal is to better understand the surface composition of Ceres and to constrain the presence of exposed water ice. Methods: We acquired new visible and near-infrared spectra at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (La Palma, Spain), and reanalyzed literature spectra in the 3-μm region. Results: We obtained the first rotationally resolved spectroscopic observations of Ceres at visible wavelengths. Visible spectra taken one month apart at almost the same planetocentric coordinates show a significant slope variation (up to 3%/103Å). A faint absorption centered at 0.67 μm, possibly due to aqueous alteration, is detected in a subset of our spectra. The various explanations in the literature for the 3.06-μm feature can be interpreted as due to a variable amount of surface water ice at different epochs. Conclusions: The remarkable short-term temporal variability of the visible spectral slope and the changing shape of the 3.06-μm band can be hints of different amounts of water ice exposed on the surface of Ceres. This would agree with the recent detection by the Herschel Space Observatory of localized and transient sources of water vapor over this dwarf planet. Based on observations made with the Italian Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG) operated on the island of La Palma by the Fundación Galileo Galilei of the INAF (Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica) at the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias.Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  11. Short-term variability of a sample of 29 trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirouin, A.; Ortiz, J. L.; Duffard, R.; Santos-Sanz, P.; Aceituno, F. J.; Morales, N.

    2010-11-01

    Aims: We attempt to increase the number of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) whose short-term variability has been studied and compile a high quality database with the least possible biases, which may be used to perform statistical analyses. Methods: We performed broadband CCD photometric observations using several telescopes (the 1.5 m telescope at Sierra Nevada Observatory, the 2.2 m Calar Alto telescope and the 2.5 m INT on La Palma). Results: We present the results of 6 years of observations, reduced and analyzed with the same tools in a systematic way. We report completely new data on 15 objects, for 5 objects we present a new analysis of previously published results plus additional data and for 9 objects we present a new analysis of data already published. Lightcurves, possible rotation periods, and photometric amplitudes are reported for all of them. The photometric variability is smaller than previously thought: the mean amplitude of our sample is 0.1 mag and only around 15% of our sample has a larger variability than 0.15 mag. The smaller variability seems to be caused by a bias of previous observations. We find a very weak trend of faster spinning objects towards smaller sizes, which appears to be consistent with the smaller objects being more collisionally evolved, but may also be a specific feature of the Centaurs, the smallest objects in our sample. We also find that the smaller the objects, the larger their amplitude, which is also consistent with the idea that small objects are more collisionally evolved and thus more deformed. Average rotation rates from our work are 7.5 h for the whole sample, 7.6 h for the TNOs alone and 7.3 h for the Centaurs. Maxwellian fits to the period distribution yield similar results. Table 1 and Appendix are only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgTable 3 is available in electronic form in the Center of astronomical Data of Strasbourg cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb

  12. A simple tropical atmosphere model of relevance to short-term climate variations

    SciTech Connect

    Bin Wang; Tianming Li )

    1993-01-15

    This tropical atmosphere model is suitable for modeling the annual cycle and short-term climate fluctuations in sole response to the thermal forcing from the underlying surface, especially the ocean surface. The present model consists of a well-mixed planetary boundary layer and a free troposphere represented by the gravest baroclinic mode. The model dynamics involves active interactions between the boundary-layer flow driven by the momentum forcing associated with sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and the free tropospheric flow stimulated by diabatic heating controlled by the thermal effects of SST. This process is essential for modeling Pacific basinwide low-level circulations. The convective heating is parameterized by a SST-dependent conditional heating scheme based upon the proposition that the potential convective instability increases with SST in a nonlinear fashion. The precipitation pattern and intensity, the trade winds and associated subtropical highs, and the near-equatorial trough can be simulated. The thermal contrast between oceans and continents has a profound influence on the circulation near landmasses. Changes in land surface temperature do not exert significant influence on remote oceanic regions. Both the ITCZ and SPCZ primarily originate from the inhomogeneity of ocean surface thermal conditions. The continents of South and North America contribute to the formation of these oceanic convergence zones through indirect boundary effects that support coastal upwelling changing the SST distribution. The diagnosis of observed surface wind and pressure fields indicates that the nonlinear advection of momentum is generally negligible in the boundary-layer momentum balance. The large SST gradients in the supbtropics play an important role in forcing rotational and cross-isobaric winds. 41 refs., 12 figs.

  13. Short-term variability of heterotrophic bacterioplankton during upwelling off the NW Iberian margin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbosa, A. B.; Galvão, H. M.; Mendes, P. A.; Álvarez-Salgado, X. A.; Figueiras, F. G.; Joint, I.

    2001-11-01

    Short-term variability of heterotrophic bacterioplankton was studied in a recently upwelled water mass at the NW Iberian margin (August 1998). Bacterioplankton abundance (BA), biomass (BB), production (BP), and specific production (SBP) were monitored during two Lagrangian drift experiments, one along the shelf-edge, the other off-shelf along an upwelling filament. Other measurements included chlorophyll a (Chl a), primary production (PP), suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PON), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON). Although primary production was significantly higher during the shelf-edge drift experiment, bacterial biomass in the euphotic zone (2.68 to 22.20μgC.l -1) was not significantly different from that in the offshore filament. In contrast, bacterial production (0.13-3.52μgC.l -1.d -1), estimated using an empirically determined 14C-leucine to carbon conversion factor, and bacterial growth rates (doubling time, DT: 3.9-29.7d), were significantly higher during the shelf-edge drift (BP: 1.50±0.11 versus 0.50±0.02μgC.l -1.d -1; DT: 6.9±0.3 versus 16.2±0.9 d; p<0.01). Depth-integrated BB over the euphotic zone comprised 15±1% of phytoplankton biomass during shelf-edge drift and 39±4% under the more oligotrophic conditions in the filament. However, daily BP to net primary production ratios were not significantly different in the two regions (6±1% versus 7±1%). BA, BB, BP and SBP were enhanced in the later part of the shelf-edge drift following a pronounced increase in both PP and gross DOC production, suggesting that phytoplankton was a source of substrates for bacteria in recently upwelled waters. This contrasted with the filament drift in which short-term variability of bacterioplankton was much less pronounced and there was no correlation between BP and PP. In both regions, SBP and DOC in the euphotic zone were significantly correlated (p<0.005) indicating some regulatory effect of DOC over bacterial activity

  14. Short-term secondhand smoke exposure decreases heart rate variability and increases arrhythmia susceptibility in mice.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chao-Yin; Chow, Drin; Chiamvimonvat, Nipavan; Glatter, Kathryn A; Li, Ning; He, Yuxia; Pinkerton, Kent E; Bonham, Ann C

    2008-08-01

    Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS), a major indoor air pollutant, is linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, including cardiac arrhythmias. However, the mechanisms underlying the epidemiological findings are not well understood. Impaired cardiac autonomic function, indexed by reduced heart rate variability (HRV), may represent an underlying cause. The present study takes advantage of well-defined short-term SHS exposure (3 days, 6 h/day) on HRV and the susceptibility to arrhythmia in mice. With the use of electrocardiograph telemetry recordings in conscious mice, HRV parameters in the time domain were measured during the night after each day of exposure and 24 h after 3 days of exposure to either SHS or filtered air. The susceptibility to arrhythmia was determined after 3 days of exposure. Exposure to a low concentration of SHS [total suspended particle (TSP), 2.4 +/- 3.2; and nicotine, 0.3 +/- 0.1 mg/m(3)] had no significant effect on HRV parameters. In contrast, the exposure to a higher but still environmentally relevant concentration of SHS (TSP, 30 +/- 1; and nicotine, 5 +/- 1 mg/m(3)) significantly reduced HRV starting after the first day of exposure and continuing 24 h after the last day of exposure. Moreover, the exposed mice showed a significant increase in ventricular arrhythmia susceptibility and atrioventricular block. The data suggest that SHS exposure decreased HRV beyond the exposure period and was associated with an increase in arrhythmia susceptibility. The data provide insights into possible mechanisms underlying documented increases in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in humans exposed to SHS.

  15. Short-term effects of agriculture on air pollution and climate in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.

    2008-12-01

    This paper discusses the short-term effects of irrigation and albedo differences due to agriculture on California and Los Angeles air pollution and climate. High-resolution irrigation, land use, soil, albedo, and emission data were applied at the subgrid scale in the nested global-through-urban GATOR-GCMOM model to examine these issues following a comparison of baseline model results with data. In August, irrigation alone was found to increase soil moisture, thereby increasing nighttime but decreasing daytime ground temperatures more, causing a net ground cooling in California and Los Angeles. Agriculture was calculated to increase the albedo of the northern Central Valley but decrease that of the southern valley more relative to nonagricultural land today, offsetting part of the cooling due to irrigation alone. The spatial maximum day-night average August cooling in the Central Valley due to irrigation plus albedo differences from agriculture was 0.9 K at 30 m height and 2.3 K at the ground, in range of an historic 0.74-2.4 K cooling at 2 m attributed to heavily irrigated agriculture in an independent data study. When averaged over all model cells containing >0% irrigation, irrigation alone and irrigation plus albedo differences decreased day-night average 2-m temperatures by 0.44 K and 0.16 K, respectively, indicating greater local than regional effects of agriculture. In the Central Valley, irrigation increased the relative humidity, cloud water, and precipitation, shifting aerosol and soluble gas mass to clouds and rain. In the valley and Los Angeles, agriculture stabilized air, decreasing wind speeds and turbulence, increasing pollution in the absence of rain. Thus, when enhancing clouds and precipitation, agriculture decreased pollution; otherwise, agriculture increased pollution. Agriculture in parts of the polluted eastern Los Angeles basin increased fine particulate matter by ˜2% and ozone by ˜0.1%. All results were robust to a change in the simulation

  16. Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

    2016-08-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

  17. A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Short-Term Sleep Deprivation on Cognitive Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lim, Julian; Dinges, David F.

    2010-01-01

    A substantial amount of research has been conducted in an effort to understand the impact of short-term (less than 48 hr) total sleep deprivation (SD) on outcomes in various cognitive domains. Despite this wealth of information, there has been disagreement on how these data should be interpreted, arising in part because the relative magnitude of…

  18. Multicolor Near-Infrared Intra-Day and Short-Term Variability of the Blazar S5 0716+714

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Alok C.; Cha, Sang-Mok; Lee, Sungho; Jin, Ho; Pak, Soojong; Cho, Seoung-hyun; Moon, Bongkon; Park, Youngsik; Yuk, In-Soo; Nam, Uk-won; Kyeong, Jaemann

    2008-12-01

    In this paper, we report results of our near-infrared (NIR) photometric variability studies of the BL Lacertae (BL Lac) object S5 0716+714. NIR photometric observations were spread over seven nights during our observing run on 2007 April 2-9 at the 1.8 m telescope equipped with the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute Near-Infrared Camera System and J, H, and Ks filters at Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory, South Korea. We searched for intra-day variability (IDV), short-term variability, and color variability in the BL Lac object. We have not detected any genuine IDV in any of the J, H, and Ks passbands in our observing run. Significant short-term variabilities ~32.6%, 20.5% and 18.2% have been detected in the J, H, and Ks passbands, respectively, and ~11.9% in (J - H) color.

  19. Impact of short-term practice of yoga on heart rate variability

    PubMed Central

    Vinay, AV; Venkatesh, D; Ambarish, V

    2016-01-01

    Background: Yoga is a science that facilitates homeostasis, an ancient way of life intended to improve the quality of life of an individual. Practice of yoga is proposed to alter the autonomic nervous system and affect the cardiovascular functioning. This study was intended to assess the influence of short-term practice of yoga for a month on heart rate variability (HRV). Materials and Methods: Totally, 40 healthy male volunteers in the age group of 30–60 years willing to practice yoga for a month were included in the study. HRV was assessed using HRV device (RMS Vagus, India). Preinterventional assessment of HRV was done in these subjects. Practice of yoga that included a set of physical postures (asanas), breathing techniques (pranayama), and meditation (dhyana) were performed for an hour daily for 1 month under the guidance of a certified yoga instructor. Postinterventional assessment of HRV was done. The values were expressed in median and their interquartile range, and statistical analysis was done to compare the changes using Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Results: Thirty-two of 40 subjects recruited for yoga practice completed the study protocol. Analysis of HRV revealed that in time domain parameters, SDNN increased from 33.60 (31.41–44.82) to 42.11 (34.43–57.51), RMSSD increased from 22.00 (16.00–33.80) to 25.6 (17.0–34.8), and PNN50 increased from 2.45 (0.80–15.38) to 7.35 (1.40–18.57) after intervention. In the frequency domain parameters, the low-frequency (LF) power spectrum reduced from 39.30 (25.1–46.25) to 30.40 (22.75–40.62) and LF/high-frequency ratio was reduced from 2.62 (1.91–4.07) to 2.28 (1.4–3.07) after 1 month practice of yoga. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Conclusion: Autonomic balance tilts toward parasympathetic predominance after 1 month practice of yoga. PMID:26865773

  20. A Simple Tropical Atmosphere Model of Relevance to Short-Term Climate Variations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Li, Tianming

    1993-01-01

    The tropical atmosphere model presented here is suitable for modeling both the annual cycle and short-term (monthly to decadal time scale) climate fluctuations in sole response to the thermal forcing from the underlying surface, especially the ocean surface. The present model consists of a well-mixed planetary boundary layer and a free troposphere represented by the gravest baroclinic mode. The model dynamics involves active interactions between the boundary-layer flow driven by the momentum forcing associated with sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and the free tropospheric flow stimulated by diabatic heating that is controlled by the thermal effects of SST. This process is demonstrated to be essential for modeling Pacific basinwide low-level circulations. The convective heating is parameterized by a SST-dependent conditional heating scheme based upon the proposition that the potential convective instability increases with SST in a nonlinear fashion.The present model integrates the virtue of a Gill-type model with that of a Lindzen-Nigam model and is capable of reproducing both the shallow intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the boundary layer and the deep South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and monsoon troughs in the lower troposphere. The precipitation pattern and intensity, the trade winds and associated subtropical highs, and the near-equatorial trough can also be simulated reasonably well.The thermal contrast between oceans and continents is shown to have a profound influence on the circulation near landmasses. Changes in land surface temperature, however, do not exert significant influence on remote oceanic regions. Both the ITCZ and SPCZ primarily originate from the inhomogeneity of ocean surface thermal conditions. The continents of South and North America contribute to the formation of these oceanic convergence zones through indirect boundary effects that support coastal upwelling changing the SST distribution. The diagnosis of observed surface

  1. Short term response of a peatland to warming and drought - climate manipulation experiment in W Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juszczak, Radosław; Chojnicki, Bogdan; Urbaniak, Marek; Leśny, Jacek; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Basińska, Anna; Gąbka, Maciej; Stróżecki, Marcin; Samson, Mateusz; Łuców, Dominika; Józefczyk, Damian; Hoffmann, Mathias; Olejnik, Janusz

    2016-04-01

    conditions led to increases in NDVI and LAI, whilst the site exposed to only drought exhibited the lowest LAI. Warming shifted the vegetation species composition by promoting vascular plants (mainly Carex rostrata and C. limosa), which result also correlates positively with nutrient (Ptot, Mn, F, Na, Zn) availability in the peat water. Here, we report short-term responses to increased temperature and diminished precipitation, showing that the combination of these to stressors leads to very different scenario than their individual impacts. Our results further emphasize the need for long term records from field manipulation site on peatland response to climate changes. The Research was co-founded by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development within the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme within the WETMAN project (Central European Wetland Ecosystem Feedbacks to Changing Climate - Field Scale Manipulation, Project ID: 203258, contract No. Pol-Nor/203258/31/2013 (www.wetman.pl). References Fenner N., Freeman Ch. (2011). Nature Geoscience, 4, 895-900 Hoffmann M., et al. (2015). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 200, 30-45 Kimball BA. (2005). Global Change Biology, 11, 2041-2056

  2. A quantitative systematic review of normal values for short-term heart rate variability in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Nunan, David; Sandercock, Gavin R H; Brodie, David A

    2010-11-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is a known risk factor for mortality in both healthy and patient populations. There are currently no normative data for short-term measures of HRV. A thorough review of short-term HRV data published since 1996 was therefore performed. Data from studies published after the 1996 Task Force report (i.e., between January 1997 and September 2008) and reporting short-term measures of HRV obtained in normally healthy individuals were collated and factors underlying discrepant values were identified. Forty-four studies met the pre-set inclusion criteria involving 21,438 participants. Values for short-term HRV measures from the literature were lower than Task Force norms. A degree of homogeneity for common measures of HRV in healthy adults was shown across studies. A number of studies demonstrate large interindividual variations (up to 260,000%), particularly for spectral measures. A number of methodological discrepancies underlined disparate values. These include a systematic failure within the literature (a) to recognize the importance of RR data recognition/editing procedures and (b) to question disparate HRV values observed in normally healthy individuals. A need for large-scale population studies and a review of the Task Force recommendations for short-term HRV that covers the full-age spectrum were identified. Data presented should be used to quantify reference ranges for short-term measures of HRV in healthy adult populations but should be undertaken with reference to methodological factors underlying disparate values. Recommendations for the measurement of HRV require updating to include current technologies.

  3. On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reiter, E. R.

    1979-01-01

    Various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean atmosphere system were studied. A variability pattern of sea surface temperature with a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) was detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's were pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. Interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.

  4. Searching for Short Term Variable Active Galactic Nuclei: A Vital Step Towards Using AGN as Standard Candles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilts, Kelly; Gorjian, Varoujan; Rutherford, Thomas; Kohrs, Russell; Urbanowski, Vincent; Bellusci, Nina; Horton, Savannah; Jones, Dana; Jones, Kaytlyn; Pawelski, Peter; Tranum, Haley; Zhang, Emily

    2017-01-01

    Current models for accretion disk sizes of active galactic nuclei (AGN) do not match the limited observational data available, so there is an active need from the modeling community for many more accretion disk/dusty torus reverberation mapping campaigns with which to better calibrate models. Since short term variable AGN can be more easily monitored for reverberation mapping than long term variable AGN, they can begin to provide data more quickly. This project looked for short term variable AGN in the Young Stellar Object Variability (YSOVAR) survey conducted using the Spitzer Space Telescope. The YSOVAR survey targeted 12 nearby star forming regions for repeated observations. Potential AGN from the YSOVAR data were first selected by color ([3.6] - [4.5] > 0.4) and then by magnitude (m < 14) based on previous Spitzer surveys of known AGN. Since AGN share some similar color characteristics with young stars, images of each YSOVAR region were viewed to remove potential objects near concentrations of known young stellar objects since these were likely also YSOs. The spectral energy distribution (SED) for each remaining potential AGN was then examined for AGN like characteristics. Several potential short term variable AGN were found.

  5. The potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum peatlands.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Maura E; Booth, Robert K

    2011-07-01

    Testate amoebae are a group of moisture-sensitive, shell-producing protozoa that have been widely used as indicators of changes in mean water-table depth within oligotrophic peatlands. However, short-term environmental variability (i.e., sub-annual) also probably influences community composition. The objective of this study was to assess the potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands. Testate amoebae and environmental conditions, including hourly measurements of relative humidity within the upper centimeter of the peatland surface, were examined throughout the 2008 growing season at 72 microsites within 11 peatlands of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, USA. Relationships among testate amoeba communities, vegetation, depth to water table, pH, and an index of short-term environmental variability (EVI), were examined using nonmetric multidimensional scaling and correlation analysis. Results suggest that EVI influences testate amoeba communities, with some taxa more abundant under highly variable conditions (e.g., Arcella discoides, Difflugia pulex, and Hyalosphenia subflava) and others more abundant when environmental conditions at the peatland surface were relatively stable (e.g., Archerella flavum and Bullinularia indica). The magnitude of environmental variability experienced at the peatland surface appears to be primarily controlled by vegetation composition and density. In particular, sites with dense Sphagnum cover had lower EVI values than sites with loose-growing Sphagnum or vegetation dominated by vascular plants and/or non-Sphagnum bryophytes. Our results suggest that more environmental information may be inferred from testate amoebae than previously recognized. Knowledge of relationships between testate amoebae and short-term environmental variability should lead to more detailed and refined environmental inferences.

  6. Short-term spatial and temporal variability of disinfection by-product occurrence in small drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Guilherme, Stéphanie; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2015-06-15

    Disinfection by-products (DBPs) constitute a large family of compounds. Trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids are regulated in various countries, but most DBPs are not. Monitoring DBPs can be delicate, especially for small systems, because various factors influence their formation and speciation. Short-term variations of DBPs can be important and particularly difficult for small systems to handle because they require robust treatment and operation processes. According to our knowledge, for the first time, our study covers the short-term variability of regulated and non-regulated DBP occurrence in small systems in the summer. An intensive sampling program was carried out in six small systems in Canada. Systems in the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec were sampled daily at the water treatment plant and at six different locations along the distribution system. Five DBP families were studied: trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, haloacetonitriles, halonitromethanes and haloketones. Results show that there were considerable variations in DBP levels from week to week during the month of study and even from day to day within the week. On a daily basis, DBP levels can fluctuate by 22% to 96%. Likewise, the large number of sampling locations served to observe DBP variations along the distribution system. Observations revealed some degradation and decomposition of non-regulated DBPs never before studied in small systems that are associated with the difficulty these systems experience in maintaining adequate levels of residual disinfectant. Finally, this study reveals that the short term temporal variability of DBPs is also influenced by spatial location along the distribution system. In the short term, DBP levels can fluctuate by 23% at the beginning of the system, compared to 40% at the end. Thus, spatial and temporal variations of DBPs in the short term may make it difficult to select representative locations and periods for DBP monitoring purposes in small

  7. NEW CONSTRAINTS ON THE ORIGIN OF THE SHORT-TERM CYCLICAL VARIABILITY OF THE WOLF-RAYET STAR WR 46

    SciTech Connect

    Henault-Brunet, V.; St-Louis, N.; Marchenko, S. V.; Pollock, A. M. T.; Talavera, A.; Carpano, S. E-mail: stlouis@astro.umontreal.ca E-mail: andy.pollock@esa.int E-mail: scarpano@rssd.esa.int

    2011-07-01

    The Wolf-Rayet star WR 46 is known to exhibit a very complex variability pattern on relatively short timescales of a few hours. Periodic but intermittent radial velocity shifts of optical lines as well as multiple photometric periods have been found in the past. Non-radial pulsations, rapid rotational modulation, or the presence of a putative low-mass companion have been proposed to explain the short-term behavior. In an effort to unveil its true nature, we observed WR 46 with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) over several short-term variability cycles. We found significant variations on a timescale of {approx}8 hr in the far-ultraviolet (FUV) continuum, in the blue edge of the absorption trough of the O VI {lambda}{lambda}1032, 1038 doublet P Cygni profile and in the S VI {lambda}{lambda}933, 944 P Cygni absorption profile. We complemented these observations with X-ray and UV light curves and an X-ray spectrum from archival X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission-Newton Space Telescope (XMM-Newton) data. The X-ray and UV light curves show variations on a timescale similar to the variability found in the FUV. We discuss our results in the context of the different scenarios suggested to explain the short-term variability of this object and reiterate that non-radial pulsations is the scenario most likely to occur.

  8. Modeling short-term variability of semivolatile organic chemicals in air at a local scale: an integrated modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Morselli, Melissa; Ghirardello, Davide; Semplice, Matteo; Di Guardo, Antonio

    2011-05-01

    Monitoring campaigns from different locations have recently shown how air concentrations of persistent semivolatile contaminants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) often exhibit short-term (less than 24 h) variations. The observed patterns have been ascribed to different factors, such as temperature-mediated air-surface exchange and variability of planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and dynamics. Here, we present a new modeling approach developed in order to investigate the short-term variability in air concentrations of organic pollutants at a local scale. A new dynamic multimedia box model is supplied by a meteorological preprocessor (AERMET) with hourly values of air compartment height and wind speed. The resulting model is tested against an existing dataset of PCB air concentrations measured in Zurich, Switzerland. Results show the importance of such modeling approach in elucidating the short- and long-term behavior of semivolatile contaminants in the air/soil system.

  9. Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

    2013-10-01

    The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

  10. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

    2012-05-01

    This study assesses the CMIP5 decadal hindcast/forecast simulations of seven state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled models. Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006. Most of the models overestimate trends, whereby the models predict less warming or even cooling in the earlier decades compared to observations and too much warming in recent decades. All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature over the Indian, North Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans where the externally forced component and low-frequency climate variability is dominant. However, low prediction skill is found over the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is predicted in most of the models with significant skill, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index shows relatively low predictive skill. The multi-model ensemble has in general better-forecast quality than the single-model systems for global mean surface temperature, AMO and PDO.

  11. Dynamical downscaling of short-term climate fluctuations: On the benefits of precipitation assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, Ana M. B.; Roads, John O.

    2009-06-01

    Regional downscaling has proven useful in adding details to the global solution. However, the parameterized physical processes can systematically deviate the large-scale features in the regional solution. To demonstrate the precipitation assimilation beneficial impact on the dynamical downscaling, a regional spectral model driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (NCEP/DOE AMIP-II) Reanalysis was used to downscale the large-scale features over most of North America. The North American Regional Reanalysis provided the 3-hourly precipitation rates that the regional model employed to simulate two opposite extreme climate events: the upper Mississippi River Basin 1988 drought and 1993 floods. In addition to these two cases, the 1990 summer anomalous precipitation over the same area was also investigated. Precipitation assimilation positively influences the dynamical downscaling of these extreme climate events. The regional model when assimilating precipitation was particularly successful in reproducing the observed precipitation patterns over the central United States, where the large-scale circulation affects the precipitation variability. Particularly for the flood year, the intensity and location of the subtropical upper-level westerly jet and its associated transverse circulations were noticeably improved in the regional simulations, where the heavy precipitation core was found. This also suggests that the cumulus convection scheme, in this case the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert parameterization scheme, can cause the large-scale features to drift during the regional simulation, and precipitation assimilation reduces this departure from the global solution. These changes in the upper-level winds were also followed by better characterization of the drought of 1988 as well as the 1990 summer heavy precipitation simulation, in comparison to regional control simulations, where precipitation

  12. Short-Term Relationship between Hip Fracture and Weather Conditions in Two Spanish Health Areas with Different Climates

    PubMed Central

    Tenías, José María; Estarlich, Marisa; Crespo, Eusebio; Román-Ortiz, Carmen; Arias-Arias, Angel; Ballester, Ferran

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate differences in the short-term relationship between weather conditions and the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 65 and over among two regions of Spain. Methods. Hip fracture incidence was calculated for the years 2000–2008 for residents of Health Area 14 in Valencian Community (Mediterranean climate) and the “Mancha Centro” Health Area in Castilla-La Mancha (inland climate), Spain. The relationship between hip fracture incidence and weather was analyzed with a case-crossover design and explored in subgroups defined by sex, age, and fracture type. Results. In the inland area, a positive and significant tendency for hip fracture incidence was observed (annual increase: 1.5%) whereas in the Mediterranean area a seasonal increase of 9% was noted in autumn and winter with respect to spring. Weather conditions, especially wind, were significantly associated with hip fracture incidence: days with more frequent windy periods and/or a greater wind velocity were associated with an increase in hip fracture incidence of 51% in the Mediterranean area and 44% in the inland area. Conclusions. Hip fracture incidence exhibits seasonal changes that differ between the Mediterranean and inland areas. The short-term relationship with climate, although similar in both areas, may partly explain these seasonal changes. PMID:25759722

  13. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production

  14. Assessing variability and comparing short-term biomarkers of styrene exposure using a repeated measurements approach.

    PubMed

    Fustinoni, S; Manini, P; Campo, L; De Palma, G; Andreoli, R; Mutti, A; Bertazzi, P A; Rappaport, S M

    2010-01-15

    The aim of this work is to compare several short-term biomarkers of styrene exposure, namely urinary styrene (StyU), mercapturic acids (M1+M2), mandelic acid (MA), phenylglyoxylic acid (PGA), phenylglycine (PHG), and 4-vinylphenol conjugates (VP), for use as biomarkers of exposure in epidemiologic studies. A repeated measurements protocol (typically 4 measurements per worker over 6 weeks) was applied to measure airborne styrene (StyA) and urinary biomarkers in 10 varnish and 8 fiberglass reinforced plastic workers. Estimated geometric mean personal exposures to StyA were 2.96mg/m(3) in varnish workers and 15.7mg/m(3) in plastic workers. The corresponding levels of StyU, M1+M2, MA, PGA, MA+PGA, PHG and VP were 5.13microg/L, 0.111, 38.2, 22.7, 62.6, 0.978, and 3.97mg/g creatinine in varnish workers and 8.38microg/L, 0.303, 146, 83.4, 232, 2.85 and 3.97mg/g creatinine in plastic workers. Within-worker (sigma(wY)(2)) and between-worker (sigma(bY)(2)) variance components were estimated from the log-transformed data as were the corresponding fold ranges containing 95% of the respective lognormal distributions of daily levels ((w)R(0.95)) and subject-specific mean levels ((b)R(0.95)). Estimates of (w)R(0.95) (range: 4-26) were generally smaller than those of (b)R(0.95) (range: 5-790) for both environmental and biological markers; this indicates that exposures varied much more between workers than within workers in these groups. Since attenuation bias in an estimated exposure-response relationship increases with the variance ratio lambda=sigma(wY)(2)/sigma(bY)(2), we estimated values of lambda for all exposure measures in our study. Values of lambda were typically much less than one (median=0.220) and ranged from 0.089 for M1+M2 in plastic workers to 1.38 for PHG in varnish workers. Since values of lambda were 0.147 and 0.271 for StyA in varnish workers and plastic workers, respectively, compared to 0.178 and 0.210 for MA in the same groups, our results suggest that either

  15. Flexible Decision Variables in Short-term Operation of Reservoirs Using Dimension Reduction Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseini, P.; Chen, D.; Leon, A.; Gibson, N. L.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model to find flexible decision variables (e.g., turbine flows) in reservoir operation. Flexible decision variables could give the decision maker a range of options instead of single deterministic optimal solutions. In our formulation, each decision variable is modeled by a random variable, and the eventual decision will be but one realization. The optimal probability distribution is found by maximizing the expected value of the objective. Finding flexible decision variables can be computationally intensive especially for multi-reservoir systems. To increase the computational speed of the optimization, a dimension reduction method is used, namely the Karhunen Loe`ve (KL) expansion. KL expansion is closely related to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and can be used to efficiently represent the random processes by only a few random variables. When using this method, deterministic optimal Pareto solutions are used as the initial population for the optimization. The Grand Coulee reservoir, located in the Columbia River, is used as the test case. The results show that the decision space can be represented with very few random variables and the computational time can therefore be drastically reduced.

  16. Short-term variability and predictors of urinary pentachlorophenol levels in Ohio preschool children

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a persistent and ubiquitous environmental contaminant. No published data exist on the temporal variability or important predictors of urinary PCP concentrations in young children. In this further analysis of study data, we have examined the associations...

  17. Simulating small-scale climate change effects-lessons from a short-term field manipulation experiment on grassland arthropods.

    PubMed

    Buchholz, Sascha; Rolfsmeyer, Dorothee; Schirmel, Jens

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is expected to cause major consequences on biodiversity. Understanding species-specific reactions, such as species shifts, species declines, and changes in population dynamics is a key issue to quantify large-scale impacts of climate change on biotic communities. As it is often impossible or at least impracticable to conduct large-scale experiments on biotic responses to climate change, studies at a smaller scale may be a useful alternative. In our study, we therefore tested responses of grassland arthropods (carabid beetles, spiders, grasshoppers) to simulated climate change in terms of species activity densities and diversity. We conducted a controlled field experiment by changing water and microclimatic conditions at a small scale (16 m(2) ). Roof constructions were used to increase drought-like conditions, whereas water supply was enhanced by irrigation. In all, 2 038 carabid beetles (36 species), 4 893 spiders (65 species), and 303 Orthoptera (4 species) were caught using pitfall traps from May to August, 2010. During our experiment, we created an artificial small-scale climate change; and statistics revealed that these changes had short-term effects on the total number of individuals and Simpson diversity of the studied arthropod groups. Moreover, our results showed that certain species might react very quickly to climate change in terms of activity densities, which in turn might influence diversity due to shifts in abundance patterns. Finally, we devised methodological improvements that may further enhance the validity of future studies.

  18. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  19. Effects of short term bioturbation by common voles on biogeochemical soil variables.

    PubMed

    Wilske, Burkhard; Eccard, Jana A; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Hohmann, Maximilian; Methler, Annabel; Herde, Antje; Liesenjohann, Thilo; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 × 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35-150 individuals ha-1 mth-1). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of 13C and 15N, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the δ15N at depths of 10-20 and 20-30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15-30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5-10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools.

  20. Effects of Short Term Bioturbation by Common Voles on Biogeochemical Soil Variables

    PubMed Central

    Wilske, Burkhard; Eccard, Jana A.; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Hohmann, Maximilian; Methler, Annabel; Herde, Antje; Liesenjohann, Thilo; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 × 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35–150 individuals ha–1 mth–1). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of 13C and 15N, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the δ15N at depths of 10–20 and 20–30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15–30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5–10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools. PMID:25954967

  1. Soil Microbial Community Responses to Short-term Multiple Experimental Climate Change Drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guanlin; Lee, Jongyeol; Lee, Sohye; Roh, Yujin; Son, Yowhan

    2016-04-01

    It is agreed that soil microbial communities are responsible for the cycling of carbon and nutrients in ecosystems; however, the response of these microbial communities to climate change has not been clearly understood. In this study, we measured the direct and interactive effects of climate change drivers on soil bacterial and fungal communities (abundance and composition) in an open-field multifactor climate change experiment. The experimental treatment system was established with two-year-old Pinus densiflora seedlings at Korea University in April 2013, and consisted of six different treatments with three replicates: two levels of air temperature warming (control and +3° C) were crossed with three levels of precipitation manipulation (control, -30% and +30%). After 2.5 years of treatments, in August, 2015, soil samples were collected from the topsoil (0-15cm) of all plots (n=18). High-throughput sequencing technology was used to assess the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Analysis of variance for a blocked split-plot design was used to detect the effects of climate change drivers and their interaction on the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Our results showed that 1) only the significant effect of warming on fungal community abundance was observed (P <0.05); 2) on average, warming decreased both bacterial and fungal community abundance by 20.90% and 32.30%, 6.69% and 45.89%, 14.71% and 19.56% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 3) however, warming increased the relative bacterium/fungus ratio on average by 14.03%, 37.03% and 14.31% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 4) the phylogenetic distribution of bacterial and fungal groups and their relative abundance varied among treatments; 5) treatments altered the relative abundance of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, where Ascomycota decreased with a concomitant increase in the

  2. Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and action

    PubMed Central

    Buizer, James; Jacobs, Katharine; Cash, David

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses the evolution of scientific and social understanding that has led to the development of knowledge systems supporting the application of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, including the development of successful efforts to connect climate predictions with sectoral applications and actions “on the ground”. The evolution of “boundary-spanning” activities to connect science and decisionmaking is then discussed, setting the stage for a report of outcomes from an international workshop comprised of producers, translators, and users of climate predictions. The workshop, which focused on identifying critical boundary-spanning features of successful boundary organizations, included participants from Australia, Hawaii, and the Pacific Islands, the US Pacific Northwest, and the state of Ceará in northwestern Brazil. Workshop participants agreed that boundary organizations have multiple roles including those of information broker, convenor of forums for engagement, translator of scientific information, arbiter of access to knowledge, and exemplar of adaptive behavior. Through these roles, boundary organizations will ensure the stability of the knowledge system in a changing political, economic, and climatic context. The international examples reviewed in this workshop demonstrated an interesting case of convergent evolution, where organizations that were very different in origin evolved toward similar structures and individuals engaged in them had similar experiences to share. These examples provide evidence that boundary organizations and boundary-spanners fill some social/institutional roles that are independent of culture. PMID:20133668

  3. Long and short term variability of seven blazars in six near-infrared/optical bands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandrinelli, A.; Covino, S.; Treves, A.

    2014-02-01

    Context. We present the light curves of six BL Lac objects, PKS 0537-441, PKS 0735+17, OJ 287, PKS 2005-489, PKS 2155-304, and W Comae, and of the flat spectrum radio quasar PKS 1510-089, as a part of a photometric monitoring program in the near-infrared/optical bands started in 2004. All sources are Fermi blazars. Aims: Our purpose is to investigate flux and spectral variability on short and long time scales. Systematic monitoring, independent of the activity of the source, guarantees large sample size statistics, and allows an unbiased view of different activity states on weekly or daily time scales for the whole timeframe and on nightly time scales for some epochs. Methods: Data were obtained with the REM telescope located at the ESO premises of La Silla (Chile). Light curves were gathered in the optical/near-infrared VRIJHK bands from April 2005 to June 2012. Results: Variability ≳3 mag is observed in PKS 0537-441, PKS 1510-089 and PKS 2155-304, the largest ranges spanned in the near-infrared. The color intensity plots show rather different morphologies. The spectral energy distributions in general are well fitted by a power law, with some deviations that are more apparent in low states. Some variability episodes during a night interval are well documented for PKS 0537-441 and PKS 2155-304. For the latter source the variability time scale implies a large relativistic beaming factor. Full Table 3 is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/A79

  4. Bovine colostrum supplementation's lack of effect on immune variables during short-term intense exercise in well-trained athletes.

    PubMed

    Carol, Arnoud; Witkamp, Renger F; Wichers, Harry J; Mensink, Marco

    2011-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential of bovine colostrum to attenuate postexercise decline in immune function. The authors evaluated the time course of a number of immune variables after short-term intense exercise in 9 male athletes after 10 d of supplementation with either colostrum or skim-milk powder. To increase the stress on the immune system subjects performed a glycogen-depletion trial the evening before the endurance trial (90 min at 50% Wmax). Blood samples were taken before the glycogen-depletion trial, before and after the endurance trial, and the next morning, ~22 hr after cessation of the exercise. Plasma cortisol levels increased over time, reaching the highest level directly after exercise, and were still elevated ~22 hr after exercise compared with baseline values (p < .001). Neutrophil cell count was increased after exercise and dropped below starting values 22 hr after exercise (time effect p < .001). Circulating immunoglobulins did not change over time. A significant time effect was seen for interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, IL-1-receptor agonist, and C-reactive protein, with levels being higher directly after exercise (p < .05). Other cytokines (interferon-γ, IL-1a, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor-a) did not show a time effect. No differences were seen between colostrum and skim-milk powder in any of the investigated variables. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that intense exercise affects several variables of the immune system. Colostrum did not alter any of the postexercise immune variables compared with skim-milk powder, suggesting no role for bovine colostrum supplementation in preventing postexercise immune suppression after short-term intense exercise.

  5. Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

    2014-08-01

    We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

  6. Short-Term Spectral Variability in the Binary FS CMa-Type Object MWC 728

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharikov, S. V.; Miroshnichenko, A. S.

    2017-02-01

    We report the results of a long-term spectroscopic monitoring of the FS CM-type object MWC 728. We found that it is a binary system with a B5 ve (T1,eff = 14000±1000 K) primary and a G8 III (T2,eff ˜ 5000 K) secondary. Absorption lines of the cool star show regular variations with a semi-amplitude of ˜20 km s-1 and a period of 27.5 days. The system mass function is 2.3×10-2 M⊙, and its orbital plane is ˜ 13-15° tilted from the plane of the sky. The hot star has a projected rotational velocity of ˜110 km s-1 which implies a nearly breakup rotation at the equator. We detected strong variations of the Balmer and He I emission-line profiles on timescales from days to years. This points out to a variable stellar wind of the hot star in addition to the presence of a circum-primary gaseous disk. The strength of the absorption-line spectrum along with the optical and near-IR continuum suggest that the hot star contributes ˜60% of the V-band flux, the disk contributes ˜30%, and the cool star ˜10%.The binary system parameters, along with the interstellar extinction, suggest a distance of ˜1 kpc, that the cool star radius (˜8 R⊙) is smaller than its Roche lobe, and that the companions' mass ratio is q ˜0.5. Overall, the observed spectral variability and the presence of a strong IR-excess are in agreement with a model of a close binary system that has undergone a non-conservative mass-transfer.

  7. Anatomy of the AGN in NGC 5548. IV. The short-term variability of the outflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Gesu, L.; Costantini, E.; Ebrero, J.; Mehdipour, M.; Kaastra, J. S.; Ursini, F.; Petrucci, P. O.; Cappi, M.; Kriss, G. A.; Bianchi, S.; Branduardi-Raymont, G.; De Marco, B.; De Rosa, A.; Kaspi, S.; Paltani, S.; Pinto, C.; Ponti, G.; Steenbrugge, K. C.; Whewell, M.

    2015-07-01

    During an extensive multiwavelength campaign that we performed in 2013-2014, we found the prototypical Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 in an unusual condition of heavy and persistent obscuration. The newly discovered "obscurer" absorbs most of the soft X-ray continuum along our line of sight and lowers the ionizing luminosity received by the classical warm absorber. We present the analysis of the high resolution X-ray spectra collected with XMM-Newton and Chandra throughout the campaign, which are suitable to investigate the variability of both the obscurer and classical warm absorber. The time separation between these X-ray observations range from two days to eight months. On these timescales the obscurer is variable both in column density and in covering fraction. This is consistent with the picture of a patchy wind. The most significant variation occurred in September 2013 when the source brightened for two weeks. A higher and steeper intrinsic continuum and a lower obscurer covering fraction are both required to explain the spectral shape during the flare. We suggest that a geometrical change of the soft X-ray source behind the obscurer causes the observed drop in the covering fraction. Because of the higher soft X-ray continuum level, the September 2013 Chandra spectrum is the only X ray spectrum of the campaign in which individual features of the warm absorber could be detected. The spectrum shows absorption from Fe-UTA, O iv, and O v, consistent with belonging to the lower-ionization counterpart of the historical NGC 5548 warm absorber. Hence, we confirm that the warm absorber has responded to the drop in the ionizing luminosity caused by the obscurer.

  8. Short term variability of aerosol optical thickness at Belsk for the period 2002-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietruczuk, Aleksander

    2013-11-01

    In this work variability of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measured at Belsk, Poland is studied as well as modification of AOT during airmass advection towards Belsk. AOT measurements taken at Belsk and at AERONET stations located in eastern Germany, Belarus and Scandinavia are used as well as satellite measurements of AOT taken by MODIS instrument onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. Directions of airmass advection are determined by means of cluster analysis of airmass backward-trajectories. Changes of AOT at Belsk from day to day varies around zero regardless of time lag between measurements. The standard deviation of these measurements increases with increasing time lag. In case of advection from west and north direction such standard deviation is reduced. It gives good perspective for a persistent forecast of next day AOT. Analysis of AOT changes during airmass advection toward Belsk reveals two modes of AOT changes distributions. One of them with small increase of AOT and second one with larger increase of AOT, so-called loading mode. Loading mode dominates in case of advection from south direction whilst the first mode of AOT changes dominates in case of advection from other directions. Mean increase of AOT associated with the first mode is 0.034 ± 0.003. Analysis of backward-trajectories shows that aerosol loading occurs over urban/industrial regions located south and south-west of Belsk. Substantial aerosol loading is found during seasonal biomass burning episodes in Eastern Europe.

  9. A Study of Short-term White Dwarf Variability Using gPhoton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, Michael; Fleming, Scott W.; Caton, Daniel B.; Million, Chase; Shiao, Bernie

    2016-01-01

    The Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) was a UV space telescope that operated from 2003 until 2013. A new project at MAST, gPhoton takes advantage of the microchannel-plate photon detector aboard GALEX, which catalogued and time-stamped every photon event by putting the one trillion photon events into a database. Utilizing associated open-source software, gPhoton can create coadd images, movies and light curves at user-defined spatial and temporal scales. As part of early science investigations with gPhoton, 364 white dwarf stars from the McCook-Sion catalog with ample GALEX coverage were photometrically inspected for inter-visit variations during an REU program at STScI. Out of the 364 white dwarfs that were studied, three previously documented pulsating white dwarf stars were confirmed in the UV and (at least) three new pulsating white dwarf stars were discovered. Follow-up observations are conducted at Appalachian State University using optical telescopes at the Dark Sky Observatory. We compare optical and UV light curves of these new white dwarf pulsators and show a selection of other variables found with gPhoton.

  10. Short-Term Test Results: Transitional Housing Energy Efficiency Retrofit in the Hot-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, K.; Martin, E.

    2013-02-01

    This project evaluates the renovation of a 5,800 ft2, multi-use facility located in St. Petersburg, on the west coast of central Florida, in the hot humid climate. An optimal package of retrofit measures was designed to deliver 30-40% annual energy cost savings for this building with annual utility bills exceeding $16,000 and high base load consumption. Researchers projected energy cost savings for potential retrofit measures based on pre-retrofit findings and disaggregated, weather normalized utility bills as a basis for simulation true-up. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for the seven retrofit measures implemented; adding attic insulation and sealing soffits, tinting windows, improving whole building air-tightness, upgrading heating and cooling systems and retrofitting the air distribution system, replacing water heating systems, retrofitting lighting, and replacing laundry equipment. The projected energy cost savings for the full retrofit package based on a post-retrofit audit is 35%. The building's architectural characteristics, vintage, and residential and commercial uses presented challenges for both economic projections and retrofit measure construction.

  11. Short-Term Test Results. Transitional Housing Energy Efficiency Retrofit in the Hot Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, K.

    2013-02-01

    This project evaluates the renovation of a 5,800 ft2, multi-use facility located in St. Petersburg, on the west coast of central Florida, in the hot humid climate. An optimal package of retrofit measures was designed to deliver 30%-40% annual energy cost savings for this building with annual utility bills exceeding $16,000 and high base load consumption. Researchers projected energy cost savings for potential retrofit measures based on pre-retrofit findings and disaggregated, weather normalized utility bills as a basis for simulation true-up. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for the seven retrofit measures implemented; adding attic insulation and sealing soffits, tinting windows, improving whole building air-tightness, upgrading heating and cooling systems and retrofitting the air distribution system, replacing water heating systems, retrofitting lighting, and replacing laundry equipment. The projected energy cost savings for the full retrofit package based on a post-retrofit audit is 35%. The building's architectural characteristics, vintage, and residential and commercial uses presented challenges for both economic projections and retrofit measure construction.

  12. Using a short-term parameter of heart rate variability to distinguish awake from isoflurane anesthetic states.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hui-Hsun; Lee, Yi-Hui; Chan, Hsiao-Lung; Wang, Yong-Ping; Huang, Chi-Hsiang; Fan, Shou-Zen

    2008-10-01

    The measurement of anesthetic depth is important in anesthesiology. Although heart rate variability (HRV) is profoundly affected by general anesthesia, it has not yet been commonly used in this field. One of the reasons is the lack of suitable parameters of HRV for short-term observations. In this study, we designed a time domain parameter of HRV named the similarity index. It was based on observing the trend of the distribution of instantaneous heart rates as time moved. Taking epochs of ECG data as short as 64 s can derive the index. We observed the values of this index of 30 patients when they were awake and under isoflurane anesthesia. The values had very little overlapping between the two states and the prediction probability to distinguish the two states was 0.91. We suggest that HRV, if suitably treated, can play more roles in the monitoring of anesthetic depth.

  13. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

    PubMed

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-09-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions.

  14. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

    PubMed Central

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  15. A Latent Variable Analysis of Working Memory Capacity, Short-Term Memory Capacity, Processing Speed, and General Fluid Intelligence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conway, Andrew R. A.; Cowan, Nelsin; Bunting, Michael F.; Therriault, David J.; Minkoff, Scott R. B.

    2002-01-01

    Studied the interrelationships among general fluid intelligence, short-term memory capacity, working memory capacity, and processing speed in 120 young adults and used structural equation modeling to determine the best predictor of general fluid intelligence. Results suggest that working memory capacity, but not short-term memory capacity or…

  16. Change in Measured Noncognitive Variables: A Quantitative Examination of the Influence of Short-Term Study Abroad Experiences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Motley, Reginald James

    2013-01-01

    Students have different motivations for participating in education abroad experiences. Short-term study abroad programs offer students the opportunity to experience education abroad without spending an entire semester or year abroad. As a result of these opportunities, short-term study abroad programs have emerged to meet the demands for students…

  17. Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22-year case study of an arboreal marsupial.

    PubMed

    Banks, Sam C; Lorin, Thibault; Shaw, Robyn E; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D J; Smith, Annabel L; Pierson, Jennifer C; Lindenmayer, David B

    2015-08-01

    Ecological disturbance and climate are key drivers of temporal dynamics in the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations. Microscale refuges are known to buffer species' persistence against environmental change, but the effects of such refuges on demographic and genetic patterns in response to short-term environmental variation are poorly understood. We quantified demographic and genetic responses of mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) to rainfall variability (1992-2013) and to a major wildfire. We hypothesized that there would be underlying differences in demographic and genetic processes between an unburnt mesic refuge and a topographically exposed zone that was burnt in 2009. Fire caused a 2-year decrease in survival in the burnt zone, but the population grew after the fire due to immigration, leading to increased expected heterozygosity. We documented a fire-related behavioural shift, where the rate of movement by individuals in the unburnt refuge to the burnt zone decreased after fire. Irrespective of the fire, there were long-term differences in demographic and genetic parameters between the mesic/unburnt refuge and the nonmesic/burnt zone. Survival was high and unaffected by rainfall in the refuge, but lower and rainfall-dependent in the nonmesic zone. Net movement of individuals was directional, from the mesic refuge to the nonmesic zone, suggesting fine-scale source-sink dynamics. There were higher expected heterozygosity (HE ) and temporal genetic stability in the refuge, but lower HE and marked temporal genetic structure in the exposed habitat, consistent with reduced generational overlap caused by elevated mortality and immigration. Thus, fine-scale refuges can mediate the short-term demographic and genetic effects of climate and ecological disturbance.

  18. Shifts in the suitable habitat available for brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) under short-term climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Muñoz-Mas, R; Lopez-Nicolas, A; Martínez-Capel, F; Pulido-Velazquez, M

    2016-02-15

    The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). The future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at a daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE of 0.78 and 0.97 respectively) for two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under the representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). An ensemble of five strongly regularized machine learning techniques (generalized additive models, multilayer perceptron ensembles, random forests, support vector machines and fuzzy rule base systems) was used to model the microhabitat suitability (depth, velocity and substrate) during summertime and to evaluate several flows simulated with River2D©. The simulated flow rate and water temperature were combined with the microhabitat assessment to infer bivariate habitat duration curves (BHDCs) under historical conditions and climate change scenarios using either the weighted usable area (WUA) or the Boolean-based suitable area (SA). The forecasts for both scenarios jointly predicted a significant reduction in the flow rate and an increase in water temperature (mean rate of change of ca. -25% and +4% respectively). The five techniques converged on the modelled suitability and habitat preferences; large brown trout selected relatively high flow velocity, large depth and coarse substrate. However, the model developed with support vector machines presented a significantly trimmed output range (max.: 0.38), and thus its predictions were banned from the WUA-based analyses. The BHDCs based on the WUA and the SA broadly matched, indicating an increase in the number of days with less suitable habitat available (WUA and SA) and/or with higher water temperature (trout will endure impoverished environmental conditions ca. 82% of the days). Finally, our results suggested the potential extirpation of the species from the study site during short time spans.

  19. Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhihua

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states. PMID:27857204

  20. Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhihua

    2016-11-01

    Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

  1. The Impact of Historically Documented Land-use Changes On The Short-term Mesoscale Climate: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, N.; Eugster, W.; Schichler, B.

    In the first half of the 19th century land use and land cover in the three-lakes region on the Swiss Plateau was dramatically modified. Most of the formerly marshy and frequently inundated plains were drained and replaced by nowadays intensively used agricultural land. This case study investigates the effect of documented land-use and land-cover changes on the short-term climate (1-2 days) of typical summer days in July. In order to eval- uate the influences, a mesoscale dynamical non-hydrostatic model was used with a horizontal resolution of 500×500 m2, nested in a coarser grid of 10×10 km2. For both landscapes, the same atmospheric data were used for initial and border conditions. It was found that the impact of the land use on temperature and humidity in the at- mospheric boundary layer varies considerably with time, with significant changes oc- curring during daytime, peaking in the afternoon. However, the temporal occurrence of the changes also varied with the height above ground. The boundary-layer height over the region of landscape transformation was higher under past than present land- use conditions. In contrast to the simulated changes during daytime, the differences in nocturnal conditions were negligibly small. Furthermore, the question of how far the changes extended beyond the area of direct landscape transformation is adressed. Finally, it is discussed how the changes in the lowest few meters of the atmospheric boundary layer could possibly have affected the life of human beings in the area in- vestigated.

  2. Short-term effects of altered shell conductance on oxygen uptake and hematological variables of late chicken embryos.

    PubMed

    Tazawa, H; Nakazawa, S; Okuda, A; Whittow, G C

    1988-11-01

    The preceding report on the O2 uptake (MO2) of chicken embryos whose shell conductance (GO2) was altered from the beginning of incubation showed that the MO2 was decreased despite increased GO2 [Okuda, A. and H. Tazawa (1988) Respir. Physiol. 74: 187-198]. This was attributed to an excess water loss which reduced the growth of the embryos. The present study was designed to investigate the short-term effects of altered GO2, obviating the effect of excess water loss, on the MO2 and simultaneously on the hematological variables of embryos on days 16-17 and days 18-19 of incubation. The MO2 measured 5 h after increasing the GO2 was neither decreased nor increased significantly. The diffusing capacity of the chorio-allantoic membrane, which was estimated using the Bohr integration procedure, decreased as the GO2 was increased. When the GO2 was decreased, on the other hand, the decrease in MO2 was not so large as expected from the decrease in GO2, for both 16- and 18-day-old embryos. The effect of reduced GO2 on MO2 was more prominent in 18-day-old embryos than 16-day-old embryos. One-day-long hypoxia due to decreased GO2 induced erythropoiesis in 18-19-day embryos, but did not do so in 16-17-day embryos. The increase in hematocrit value of the latter group of embryos was attributed to an increase in cell volume due to concurrent hypercapnia.

  3. Short-term variability and mass loss in Be stars. II. Physical taxonomy of photometric variability observed by the Kepler spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivinius, Th.; Baade, D.; Carciofi, A. C.

    2016-09-01

    Context. Classical Be stars have been established as pulsating stars. Space-based photometric monitoring missions contributed significantly to that result. However, whether Be stars are just rapidly rotating SPB or β Cep stars, or whether they have to be understood differently, remains debated in the view of their highly complex power spectra. Aims: Kepler data of three known Be stars are re-visited to establish their pulsational nature and assess the properties of additional, non-pulsational variations. The three program stars turned out to be one inactive Be star, one active, continuously outbursting Be star, and one Be star transiting from a non-outbursting into an outbursting phase, thus forming an excellent sample to distill properties of Be stars in the various phases of their life-cycle. Methods: The Kepler data was first cleaned from any long-term variability with Lomb-Scargle based pre-whitening. Then a Lomb-Scargle analysis of the remaining short-term variations was compared to a wavelet analysis of the cleaned data. This offers a new view on the variability, as it enables us to see the temporal evolution of the variability and phase relations between supposed beating phenomena, which are typically not visualized in a Lomb-Scargle analysis. Results: The short-term photometric variability of Be stars must be disentangled into a stellar and a circumstellar part. The stellar part is on the whole not different from what is seen in non-Be stars. However, some of the observed phenomena might be to be due to resonant mode coupling, a mechanism not typically considered for B-type stars. Short-term circumstellar variability comes in the form of either a group of relatively well-defined, short-lived frequencies during outbursts, which are called Štefl frequencies, and broad bumps in the power spectra, indicating aperiodic variability on a time scale similar to typical low-order g-mode pulsation frequencies, rather than true periodicity. Conclusions: From a

  4. Cell type dependence and variability in the short-term plasticity of EPSCs in identified mouse hippocampal interneurones

    PubMed Central

    Losonczy, Attila; Zhang, Limei; Shigemoto, Ryuichi; Somogyi, Peter; Nusser, Zoltan

    2002-01-01

    Synapses exhibit different short-term plasticity patterns and this behaviour influences information processing in neuronal networks. We tested how the short-term plasticity of excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) depends on the postsynaptic cell type, identified by axonal arborizations and molecular markers in the hippocampal CA1 area. Three distinct types of short-term synaptic behaviour (facilitating, depressing and combined facilitating–depressing) were defined by fitting a dynamic neurotransmission model to the data. Approximately 75 % of the oriens-lacunosum-moleculare (O-LM) interneurones received facilitating EPSCs, but in three of 12 O-LM cells EPSCs also showed significant depression. Over 90 % of the O-LM cells were immunopositive for somatostatin and mGluR1α and all tested cells were decorated by strongly mGluR7a positive axon terminals. Responses in eight of 12 basket cells were described well with a model involving only depression, but the other cells displayed combined facilitating–depressing EPSCs. No apparent difference was found between the plasticity of EPSCs in cholecystokinin- or parvalbumin-containing basket cells. In oriens-bistratified cells (O-Bi), two of nine cells showed facilitating EPSCs, another two depressing, and the remaining five cells combined facilitating–depressing EPSCs. Seven of 10 cells tested for somatostatin were immunopositive, but mGluR1α was detectable only in two of 11 tested cells. Furthermore, most O-Bi cells projected to the CA3 area and the subiculum, as well as outside the hippocampal formation. Postsynaptic responses to action potentials recorded in vivo from a CA1 place cell were modelled, and revealed great differences between and within cell types. Our results demonstrate that the short-term plasticity of EPSCs is cell type dependent, but with significant heterogeneity within all three interneurone populations. PMID:12096061

  5. Cell type dependence and variability in the short-term plasticity of EPSCs in identified mouse hippocampal interneurones.

    PubMed

    Losonczy, Attila; Zhang, Limei; Shigemoto, Ryuichi; Somogyi, Peter; Nusser, Zoltan

    2002-07-01

    Synapses exhibit different short-term plasticity patterns and this behaviour influences information processing in neuronal networks. We tested how the short-term plasticity of excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) depends on the postsynaptic cell type, identified by axonal arborizations and molecular markers in the hippocampal CA1 area. Three distinct types of short-term synaptic behaviour (facilitating, depressing and combined facilitating-depressing) were defined by fitting a dynamic neurotransmission model to the data. Approximately 75 % of the oriens-lacunosum-moleculare (O-LM) interneurones received facilitating EPSCs, but in three of 12 O-LM cells EPSCs also showed significant depression. Over 90 % of the O-LM cells were immunopositive for somatostatin and mGluR1alpha and all tested cells were decorated by strongly mGluR7a positive axon terminals. Responses in eight of 12 basket cells were described well with a model involving only depression, but the other cells displayed combined facilitating-depressing EPSCs. No apparent difference was found between the plasticity of EPSCs in cholecystokinin- or parvalbumin-containing basket cells. In oriens-bistratified cells (O-Bi), two of nine cells showed facilitating EPSCs, another two depressing, and the remaining five cells combined facilitating-depressing EPSCs. Seven of 10 cells tested for somatostatin were immunopositive, but mGluR1alpha was detectable only in two of 11 tested cells. Furthermore, most O-Bi cells projected to the CA3 area and the subiculum, as well as outside the hippocampal formation. Postsynaptic responses to action potentials recorded in vivo from a CA1 place cell were modelled, and revealed great differences between and within cell types. Our results demonstrate that the short-term plasticity of EPSCs is cell type dependent, but with significant heterogeneity within all three interneurone populations.

  6. Head-down bed rest reduces the breathing rate short-term variability in subjects with orthostatic intolerance.

    PubMed

    Balocchi, R; Menicucci, D; Varanini, M; Chillemi, S; Legramante, J M; Saltini, C; Raimondi, G

    2004-07-01

    Orthostatic intolerance is the most serious symptom of cardiovascular deconditioning induced by microgravity. We have showed that in symptomatic subjects the baroreflex control of sinus node is affected by short term simulated microgravity. At present the influence of the respiration on the cardiovascular system in this condition is not clear. The aim of the present study was to examine the behaviour of the Breathing Rate (BR) in 5 Non-Symptomatic (NS) and 3 Symptomatic (S) subjects before and after 4 hours of head-down bed rest (HD).

  7. Short-term variability on mesozooplankton community in a shallow mixed estuary (Bahía Blanca, Argentina): Influence of tidal cycles and local winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menéndez, María C.; Piccolo, María C.; Hoffmeyer, Mónica S.

    2012-10-01

    The short-term dynamics of zooplankton in coastal ecosystems are strongly influenced by physical processes such as tides, riverine runoff and winds. In this study, we investigated the short-term changes of the representative taxa within mesozooplankton in relation to the semidiurnal tidal cycles. Also, we evaluated the influence of local winds on this short-term variability. Sampling was carried out bimonthly from December 2004 to April 2006 in a fixed point located in the inner zone of the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina. Mesozooplankton samples were taken by pumps during 14-h tidal cycles at 3-h intervals, from surface and bottom. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity as well as water samples to determine suspended particulate matter were acquired at each sampling date. All data concerning winds were obtained from a meteorological station and water level was recorded with a tide gauge. Holoplankton dominated numerically on meroplankton and adventitious fraction. Concerning holoplanktonic abundance, the highest values were attained by the calanoid copepods Acartia tonsa and Eurytemora americana. Meroplankton occurred mainly as barnacle larvae while benthic harpacticoids and Corophium sp. dominated the adventitious component. Semidiurnal tide was the main influence on the A. tonsa variability. However, noticeable differences in the abundance pattern as function of wind intensity were detected. Meroplankton abundance did not show a clear variation along the tidal cycle. Distributional pattern of harpacticoids seemed to be mainly modulated by velocity asymmetries in the tidal currents, in the same way as suspended particulate matter. However, the Corophium sp. distribution indicated probable behavioural responses associated with tides. The obtained results show how variable the mesozooplankton community structure can be over short-term time scales in mesotidal temperate estuaries. This variability should be taken into account for any zooplankton monitoring

  8. Biological and physicochemical factors controlling short-term variability in phytoplankton primary production and photosynthetic parameters in a macrotidal ecosystem (eastern English Channel)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouenne, Fabien; Lefebvre, Sébastien; Véron, Benoît; Lagadeuc, Yvan

    2005-11-01

    Links between short-term variability of phytoplankton primary production and community structure changes have been studied rarely. This has been examined in a macrotidal ecosystem, the Baie des Veys (eastern English Channel, France), in 2003 and 2004, over the complete tidal cycle (semi-diurnal mode, 12 h). Within this area, primary production and photosynthetic parameter estimates, according to the 14C incorporation technique, were supported by an exhaustive taxonomic study and measurements of physicochemical factors to illustrate the environmental framework. Related to the river Vire discharge, daily interactions between estuarine and bay waters were demonstrated. Depth-integrated primary production P z was maximal around noon in the bay (48.7-68.0 mg C m -2 h -1) and decreased through the day in the mouth of the river. Photosynthetic parameters' variations and photoacclimation were influenced by the ecosystem variability level: short-term photoacclimation was possible in low mixing conditions. Changes in taxonomic composition according to tidal forcing led to variations in primary production levels. Large species, associated with high photosynthetic parameters, were observed in the bay, whereas small ones were present in the mouth of the river, when low primary production was measured. On a short-time scale, a positive relationship was observed between species diversity and primary production. This work emphasizes the need to focus on changes in phytoplankton community structure in order to understand short-term variability in primary production.

  9. Deglacial-Holocene short-term variability in sea-ice distribution on the Eurasian shelf (Arctic Ocean) - An IP25 biomarker reconstruction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hörner, Tanja; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-04-01

    Four well-dated sediment cores from the Eurasian continental shelf, i.e., the Kara Sea (Cores BP99/07 and BP00/07) and Laptev Sea (Cores PS51/154 and PS51/159), were selected for high-resolution reconstruction of past Arctic environmental conditions during the deglacial-Holocene time interval. These marginal seas are strongly affected by the post-glacial sea-level rise of about 120m. The major focus of our study was the reconstruction of the paleo-sea-ice distribution as sea-ice plays a key role within the modern and past climate system. For reconstruction of paleo-sea ice, the sea-ice proxy IP25 in combination with open-water phytoplankton biomarkers was used (for approach see Belt et al., 2007; Müller et al., 2009, 2011). In addition, specific sterols were determined to reconstruct changes in river run-off and biological production. The post-glacial sea-level rise is especially reflected in prominent decrease in terrigenous biomarkers. Deglacial variations in sea-ice cover sustained for thousand of years, mostly following climatic changes like the Bølling/Allerød (14.7-12.9 ka), Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka) and Holocene warm phase (10-8 ka). Superimposed on a (Late) Holocene cooling trend, short-term fluctuations in sea-ice cover (on centennial scale) are distinctly documented in the distal/off-shore Core BP00/07 from the Kara Sea, less pronounced in the proximal/near-shore Core PS99/07 and in the Laptev Sea cores. Interestingly, this short-term variability in sea-ice cover correlates quite well to changes in Siberian river run-off (e.g., Stein et al. 2004), pointing to a direct linkage between precipitation (atmospheric circulation) and sea-ice formation. References Belt, S.T., Massé, G., Rowland, S.J., Poulin, M., Michel, C., LeBlanc, B., 2007. A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25. Organic Geochemistry 38, 16-27. Müller, J., Masse, G., Stein, R., Belt, S.T., 2009. Variability of sea-ice conditions in the Fram Strait over the past 30,000 years

  10. Winchester/Camberley Homes New Construction Test House Design, Construction, and Short-Term Testing in a Mixed-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-10-01

    The NAHB Research Center partnered with production builder Winchester/Camberley Homes to build a new construction test house in the mixed-humid climate zone of Silver Spring, MD in June 2011. The goal for this house was to improve energy efficiency by 30% over the Building America B10 benchmark through an optimized energy solutions package design that could be constructed on a production basis. This report outlines the features of this house, discusses the energy efficient design, and reports on short-term testing results.

  11. Short-term microbial and physico-chemical variability in low-temperature hydrothermal fluids near 5 degrees S on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

    PubMed

    Perner, Mirjam; Bach, Wolfgang; Hentscher, Michael; Koschinsky, Andrea; Garbe-Schönberg, Dieter; Streit, Wolfgang R; Strauss, Harald

    2009-10-01

    This study examines the representativeness of low-temperature hydrothermal fluid samples with respect to their chemical and microbiological characteristics. Within this scope, we investigated short-term temporal chemical and microbial variability of the hydrothermal fluids. For this purpose we collected three fluid samples consecutively from the same spot at the Clueless field near 5 degrees S on the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge over a period of 50 min. During sampling, the temperature was monitored online. We measured fluid chemical parameters, characterized microbial community compositions and used statistical analyses to determine significant differences between the samples. Overall, the three fluid samples are more closely related to each other than to any other tested habitat. Therefore, on a broad scale, the three collected fluid samples can be regarded as habitat representatives. However, small differences are apparent between all samples. One of the Clueless samples even displayed significant differences (P-value < 0.01) to the other two Clueless samples. Our data suggest that the observed variations in fluid chemical and microbial compositions are not reflecting sampling artefacts but are related to short-term fluid variability due to dynamic subseafloor fluid mixing. Recorded temporal changes in fact reflect spatial heterogeneity found in the subsurface as the fluid flows through distinctive pathways. While conservative elements (Cl, Si, Na and K) indicate variable degrees of fluid-seawater mixing, reactive components, including Fe(II), O(2) and H(2)S, show that chemical and microbial reactions within the mixing zone further modify the emanating fluids on short-time scales. Fluids entrain microorganisms, which modify the chemical microenvironment within the subsurface biotopes. This is the first study focusing on short-term microbial variability linked to chemical changes in hydrothermal fluids.

  12. OT2_jforbric_3: Probing short-term far-infrared variability of protostars and exploring afterglows of X-ray disk heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbrich, J.

    2011-09-01

    Recent studies have shown that there is a surprising amount of variability on many timescales in the mid-infrared emission of young stellar objects (YSOs). Especially on short timescales of minutes to hours, mid- and particularly far-infrared variability is currently almost entirely unexplored. While such variability is probing circumstellar disks and envelopes, it is linked to physical processes on the central object. Already the earliest evolutionary stages of YSOs are also strong X-ray emitters, and one important aspect is the heating and possible eventual dispersal of circumstellar disks due to X-ray emission. Even though very important for the understanding of planet formation, this process is poorly understood. The Herschel Space Observatory offers the last possibility for the foreseeable future to explore these processes in more detail and learn about disk heating and explore the occurrence of short-term variability. Here, we propose to do both by repeated observations of the extensively studied nearby Coronet cluster in the CrA star-forming region. Five epochs of near-simultaneous XMM-Newton and Herschel observations, each about 1.5h in duration and spaced by timescales of days to weeks, are meant to explore the short-term variability and link it to the more frequently studied variability on longer timescales. During each epoch, the cluster is mapped 18 times with Herschel. The Coronet has been chosen for having YSOs that can be detected at high S/N in short periods of time while not being too crowded for the angular resolution of both observatories. By exploring far-infrared variability on timescales of several minutes to days and weeks as well as disk heating by protostellar X-ray emission, these short observations will have a unique legacy value.

  13. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes.

    PubMed

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; Blanken, Peter D; Bohrer, Gil; Clark, Kenneth; Desai, Ankur R; Hollinger, David; Keenan, Trevor; Novick, Kimberly A; Seneviratne, Sonia I

    2016-08-01

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the "most active hours/days" (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.

  14. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; Blanken, Peter D.; Bohrer, Gil; Clark, Kenneth; Desai, Ankur R.; Hollinger, David; Keenan, Trevor; Novick, Kimberly A.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-08-01

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the "most active hours/days" (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.

  15. Relationship Between Changes in Pulse Pressure and Frequency Domain Components of Heart Rate Variability During Short-Term Left Ventricular Pacing in Patients with Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Urbanek, Bożena; Ruta, Jan; Kudryński, Krzysztof; Ptaszyński, Paweł; Klimczak, Artur; Wranicz, Jerzy Krzysztof

    2016-01-01

    Background The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between changes in pulse pressure (PP) and frequency domain heart rate variability (HRV) components caused by left ventricular pacing in patients with implanted cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Material/Methods Forty patients (mean age 63±8.5 years) with chronic heart failure (CHF) and implanted CRT were enrolled in the study. The simultaneous 5-minute recording of beat-to-beat arterial systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) by Finometer and standard electrocardiogram with CRT switched off (CRT/0) and left ventricular pacing (CRT/LV) was performed. PP (PP=SBP-DBP) and low- and high-frequency (LF and HF) HRV components were calculated, and the relationship between these parameters was analyzed. Results Short-term CRT/LV in comparison to CRT/0 caused a statistically significant increase in the values of PP (P<0.05), LF (P<0.05), and HF (P<0.05). A statistically significant correlation between ΔPP and ΔHF (R=0.7384, P<0.05) was observed. The ΔHF of 6 ms2 during short-term CRT/LV predicted a PP increase of ≥10% with 84.21% sensitivity and 85.71% specificity. Conclusions During short-term left ventricular pacing in patients with CRT, a significant correlation between ΔPP and ΔHF was observed. ΔHF ≥6 ms2 may serve as a tool in the selection of a suitable site for placement of a left ventricular lead. PMID:27305349

  16. Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

    PubMed

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

  17. Plants, Birds and Butterflies: Short-Term Responses of Species Communities to Climate Warming Vary by Taxon and with Altitude

    PubMed Central

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003–2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world. PMID:24416144

  18. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  19. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  20. Winchester/Camberley Homes New Construction Test House Design, Construction, and Short-Term Testing in a Mixed-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Mallav, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-10-01

    The NAHB Research Center partnered with production builder Winchester/Camberley Homes to build a DOE Building America New Construction Test House (NCTH). This single family, detached house, located in the mixed-humid climate zone of Silver Spring, MD, was completed in June 2011. The primary goal for this house was to improve energy efficiency by 30% over the Building America B10 benchmark by developing and implementing an optimized energy solutions package design that could be cost effectively and reliably constructed on a production basis using quality management practices. The intent of this report is to outline the features of this house, discuss the implementation of the energy efficient design, and report on short-term testing results. During the interactive design process of this project, numerous iterations of the framing, air sealing, insulation, and space conditioning systems were evaluated for energy performance, cost, and practical implementation. The final design featured numerous advanced framing techniques, high levels of insulation, and the HVAC system entirely within conditioned space. Short-term testing confirmed a very tight thermal envelope and efficient and effective heating and cooling. In addition, relevant heating, cooling, humidity, energy, and wall cavity moisture data will be collected and presented in a future long-term report.

  1. Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of

  2. Short-term under-ice variability of prokaryotic plankton communities in coastal Antarctic waters (Cape Hallett, Ross Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Celussi, Mauro; Paoli, Alessandro; Crevatin, Erica; Bergamasco, Andrea; Margiotta, Francesca; Saggiomo, Vincenzo; Umani, Serena Fonda; Del Negro, Paola

    2009-03-01

    During the 2006 Italian Antarctic expedition a diel sampling was performed close to Cape Hallett (Ross Sea) during the Austral summer. Under-ice seawater samples (˜4 m) were collected every 2 h for 28 h in order to estimate prokaryotic processes' variability and community structure dynamics. Prokaryotic and viral abundances, exoenzymatic activities (β-glucosidase, chitinase, lipase, alkaline phosphatase and leucine aminopeptidase), prokaryotic carbon production ( 3H-leucine incorporation) and community structure (Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis - DGGE fingerprints) were analysed. Results showed that the diel variability of the prokaryotic activity followed a variation in salinity, probably as a consequence of the periodical thawing of sea ice (driven by solar radiation and air temperature cycles), while negligible variation in viral and prokaryotic abundances occurred. The Bacterial and Archaeal community structures underwent an Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) temporal shift from the beginning to the end of the sampling, while Flavobacteria-specific primers highlighted high variations in this group possibly related to sea ice melting and substrate release.

  3. Short-term Variability of X-Rays from Accreting Neutron Star Vela X-1. I. Suzaku Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odaka, Hirokazu; Khangulyan, Dmitry; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Watanabe, Shin; Takahashi, Tadayuki; Makishima, Kazuo

    2013-04-01

    We have analyzed the time variability of the wide-band X-ray spectrum of Vela X-1, the brightest wind-fed accreting neutron star, on a short timescale of 2 ks by using Suzaku observations with an exposure of 100 ks. During the observation, the object showed strong variability, including several flares and so-called "low states," in which the X-ray luminosity decreases by an order of magnitude. Although the spectral hardness increases with the X-ray luminosity, the majority of the recorded flares do not show any significant changes in circumstellar absorption. However, a sign of heavy absorption was registered immediately before one short flare that showed a significant spectral hardening. In the low states, the flux level is modulated with the pulsar spin period, indicating that even at this state the accretion flow reaches the close proximity of the neutron star. Phenomenologically, the broadband X-ray spectra, which are integrated over the entire spin phase, are well represented by the "NPEX" function (a combination of negative and positive power laws with an exponential cutoff by a common folding energy) with a cyclotron resonance scattering feature at 50 keV. Fitting of the data allowed us to infer a correlation between the photon index and X-ray luminosity. Finally, the circumstellar absorption shows a gradual increase in the orbital phase interval 0.25-0.3, which can be interpreted as an impact of a bow shock imposed by the motion of the compact object in the supersonic stellar wind.

  4. SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY OF X-RAYS FROM ACCRETING NEUTRON STAR VELA X-1. I. SUZAKU OBSERVATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Odaka, Hirokazu; Khangulyan, Dmitry; Watanabe, Shin; Takahashi, Tadayuki; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Makishima, Kazuo

    2013-04-10

    We have analyzed the time variability of the wide-band X-ray spectrum of Vela X-1, the brightest wind-fed accreting neutron star, on a short timescale of 2 ks by using Suzaku observations with an exposure of 100 ks. During the observation, the object showed strong variability, including several flares and so-called 'low states', in which the X-ray luminosity decreases by an order of magnitude. Although the spectral hardness increases with the X-ray luminosity, the majority of the recorded flares do not show any significant changes in circumstellar absorption. However, a sign of heavy absorption was registered immediately before one short flare that showed a significant spectral hardening. In the low states, the flux level is modulated with the pulsar spin period, indicating that even at this state the accretion flow reaches the close proximity of the neutron star. Phenomenologically, the broadband X-ray spectra, which are integrated over the entire spin phase, are well represented by the 'NPEX' function (a combination of negative and positive power laws with an exponential cutoff by a common folding energy) with a cyclotron resonance scattering feature at 50 keV. Fitting of the data allowed us to infer a correlation between the photon index and X-ray luminosity. Finally, the circumstellar absorption shows a gradual increase in the orbital phase interval 0.25-0.3, which can be interpreted as an impact of a bow shock imposed by the motion of the compact object in the supersonic stellar wind.

  5. Short-term variability and mass loss in Be stars. I. BRITE satellite photometry of η and μ Centauri

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baade, D.; Rivinius, Th.; Pigulski, A.; Carciofi, A. C.; Martayan, Ch.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Wade, G. A.; Weiss, W. W.; Grunhut, J.; Handler, G.; Kuschnig, R.; Mehner, A.; Pablo, H.; Popowicz, A.; Rucinski, S.; Whittaker, G.

    2016-04-01

    Context. Empirical evidence for the involvement of nonradial pulsations (NRPs) in the mass loss from Be stars ranges from (i) a singular case (μ Cen) of repetitive mass ejections triggered by multi-mode beating to (ii) several photometric reports about enormous numbers of pulsation modes that suddenly appear during outbursts and on to (iii) effective single-mode pulsators. Aims: The purpose of this study is to develop a more detailed empirical description of the star-to-disk mass transfer and to check the hypothesis that spates of transient nonradial pulsation modes accompany and even drive mass-loss episodes. Methods: The BRITE Constellation of nanosatellites was used to obtain mmag photometry of the Be stars η and μ Cen. Results: In the low-inclination star μ Cen, light pollution by variable amounts of near-stellar matter prevented any new insights into the variability and other properties of the central star. In the equator-on star η Cen, BRITE photometry and Heros echelle spectroscopy from the 1990s reveal an intricate clockwork of star-disk interactions. The mass transfer is modulated with the frequency difference of two NRP modes and an amplitude three times as large as the amplitude sum of the two NRP modes. This process feeds a high-amplitude circumstellar activity running with the incoherent and slightly lower so-called Štefl frequency. The mass-loss-modulation cycles are tightly coupled to variations in the value of the Štefl frequency and in its amplitude, albeit with strongly drifting phase differences. Conclusions: The observations are well described by the decomposition of the mass loss into a pulsation-related engine in the star and a viscosity-dominated engine in the circumstellar disk. Arguments are developed that large-scale gas-circulation flows occur at the interface. The propagation rates of these eddies manifest themselves as Štefl frequencies. Bursts in power spectra during mass-loss events can be understood as the noise inherent to

  6. Can short-term heart rate variability be used to monitor fentanyl-midazolam induced changes in ANS preceding respiratory depression?

    PubMed

    Smith, Anne-Louise; Owen, Harry; Reynolds, Karen J

    2015-06-01

    Opioids have an occasional but high-risk side effect of respiratory depression. The detection of critical respiratory depression usually occurs after the event. Earlier detection would be beneficial in preventing increased morbidity and mortality of 0.01 % patients receiving analgesic opioids. Airway patency during inspiration requires vagal modulation. Regulation of the cardiovascular and respiratory centres may be coupled with a central mechanism that is indirectly measurable with heart rate variability (HRV). While opioids tend to increase parasympathetic tone, a decrease in airway stability could be due to a decrease in respiratory parasympathetic activity. Sympathetic arousal generated by apneic events may separately be recognised with short-term HRV. This pilot observational study examined the dynamic sympathovagal changes during fentanyl-midazolam induced respiratory depression on 10 subjects scheduled for minor surgery. A selection of HRV indices, able to work over sub-minute periods on non-stationary signals, were applied including a range of less common indices. Three analyses tested the effects: post-fentanyl, preceding the first central depression, and preceding obstruction of the upper airway. Statistical significance was assessed with overlap of bootstrap percentile confidence intervals for the median. A decrease in total variability, Lomb Total using the Lomb-Scargle method, is a positive finding for short-term HRV use in this study. No significant change before critical respiratory events was observed in traditional, spectral power, respiratory or other indices. One index, PolVar20, indicated a burst of sympathetic activity preceding respiratory depression similar to sleep apnoea arousals that restore airway patency. Before its usefulness in early detection of airway tone can be determined, PolVar20 requires further work: a statistical method for highly skewed distributions, auto adjustment for baseline variability, and detecting a range of

  7. Short-term pulse rate variability is better characterized by functional near-infrared spectroscopy than by photoplethysmography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holper, Lisa; Seifritz, Erich; Scholkmann, Felix

    2016-09-01

    Pulse rate variability (PRV) can be extracted from functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) (PRVNIRS) and photoplethysmography (PPG) (PRVPPG) signals. The present study compared the accuracy of simultaneously acquired PRVNIRS and PRVPPG, and evaluated their different characterizations of the sympathetic (SNS) and parasympathetic (PSNS) autonomous nervous system activity. Ten healthy subjects were recorded during resting-state (RS) and respiratory challenges in two temperature conditions, i.e., room temperature (23°C) and cold temperature (4°C). PRVNIRS was recorded based on fNIRS measurement on the head, whereas PRVPPG was determined based on PPG measured at the finger. Accuracy between PRVNIRS and PRVPPG, as assessed by cross-covariance and cross-sample entropy, demonstrated a high degree of correlation (r>0.9), which was significantly reduced by respiration and cold temperature. Characterization of SNS and PSNS using frequency-domain, time-domain, and nonlinear methods showed that PRVNIRS provided significantly better information on increasing PSNS activity in response to respiration and cold temperature than PRVPPG. The findings show that PRVNIRS may outperform PRVPPG under conditions in which respiration and temperature changes are present, and may, therefore, be advantageous in research and clinical settings, especially if characterization of the autonomous nervous system is desired.

  8. Short-term temporal and spatial variability of soil hydrophobicity in an abandoned agriculture field in Lithuania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Burguet, Maria; Cerdà, Artemi

    2013-04-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) is a natural property of soils. Among other factors, SWR depends on soil moisture, mineralogy, texture, pH, organic matter, aggregate stability, fungal and microbiological activity and plant cover. It has implications on plant growth, superficial and subsurface hydrology and soil erosion. It is well known that SWR is temporarily, increasing when soils are dry and decreasing when moist. In agriculture, soil micro-topography is very heterogeneous with implications on surface water distribution and wettability. Normally, SWR studies are focused on large interval time (e.g, monthly or seasonally). The objective of this work is the study of SWR in a temporal scale and its variability in an abandoned agriculture field in Lithuania. An experimental plot with 21 m2 (07x03 m) was designed in a flat area. Inside this plot SWR was measured in the field, placing three droplets of water on the soil surface and counting the time that takes to infiltrate. A total of 105 sampling points were measured per sampling period. Soil water repellency was measured after a period of 14 days without rainfall and in the seven consequent weeks (one measurement per week between 28th May and 07th of July 2012). The results showed that in this small plot, SWR was observed in the first (May 28), third and fourth measurements (08th of June and 16th). It was observed an increasing of the percentage of hydrophobic points (Water Drop Penetration Test ≥5 seconds) between the first and the fourth measurement, decreasing thereafter. Significant differences of SWR were observed among all periods (F=78.32, p<0.0001). The coefficient of variation (CV%) changed strikingly, 361.10 % (8th of May), 151.78 % (01st of June), 83.77% (08th of June), 125.87% (16th of June), 0.45 (22nd of June), 121%(31st of June) and 67.13% (7th of July). The correlation between the mean SWR and the CV% is 0.75, p<0.05. The changes were attributed to different soil moisture conditions. The differences

  9. Short-Term Chromospheric Variability in alpha Tauri (K5 III): Results from IUE Time Series Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cuntz, Manfred; Deeney, Bryan D.; Brown, Alexander; Stencel, Robert E.

    1996-01-01

    We evaluate time series observations of chromospheric lines (Mg II, Mg I, and C II) for the K giant alpha Tau obtained using the IUE LWP camera at high dispersion. These observations cover a time span of about 2 weeks in 1994 February-March and were designed to resolve variations occurring within hours, days, and weeks. We consider the observational results in relation to theoretical acoustic heating models, motivated by the fact that alpha Tau may exhibit a basal (i.e., minimum) level of chromospheric activity. The data reveal flux variations between the extremes of 8% in Mg II h+k and 15% in each emission component. These variations occur on timescales as short as 8 hr but not on timescales longer than approx.3 days. For the h and k components, flux variations occurring on a timescale as short as 1.5 hr are also found. These changes are often not correlated (and are sometimes even anticorrelated), leading to remarkable differences in the h/k ratios. We argue that these results are consistent with the presence of strong acoustic shocks, which can lead to variable Mg II line emission when only a small number of strong shocks are propagating through the atmosphere. We deduce the electron density in the C II lambda 2325 line formation region to be log(base e) of N. approx. equals 9.0, in agreement with previous studies. Our data provide evidence that the Mg II basal flux limit for K giants might be a factor of 4 higher than suggested by Rutten et al.

  10. The Risk Analysis of Long-term and Short-term Water Supply Considering Climate Change in Shihmen Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, C.; Chang, L.; Chen, Y.; Ho, C.

    2011-12-01

    A result of climate change is that more frequent extreme hydrological events occur, such as drought and flood events. Drought events induce water deficits and flood events induce high turbidity of water. Both water deficit and high turbidity cause insufficient water supply. In the past, water shortages caused by droughts or turbidity events are discussed separately. However, for a long-term water supply study, they should be simultaneously considered. This study develop a Monte Carlo Simulation approach to analyze water deficit problem considering simultaneously both the drought and flood situations. The proposed approach is applied to a real case study of Shihmen Reservoir. The results show that the shortage risk at Southern Taoyuan area is 91.91 % , Northern Taoyuan area is 99.03%, and at Banciao and Sinjhuang area is 4.65% under current water supply system. If the Banshin Water Treatment plant is expended and a Zhongzhuang regulating pond is added into the system, the shortage risk will be reduced to 17.74%, 1.00%, and 4.65% respectively. The results indicate that the water treatment expansion and the new regulating pond can dramatically improve the water supply reliability.

  11. Short-term sandbar variability based on video imagery: Comparison between Time-Average and Time-Variance techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guedes, R.M.C.; Calliari, L.J.; Holland, K.T.; Plant, N.G.; Pereira, P.S.; Alves, F.N.A.

    2011-01-01

    Time-exposure intensity (averaged) images are commonly used to locate the nearshore sandbar position (xb), based on the cross-shore locations of maximum pixel intensity (xi) of the bright bands in the images. It is not known, however, how the breaking patterns seen in Variance images (i.e. those created through standard deviation of pixel intensity over time) are related to the sandbar locations. We investigated the suitability of both Time-exposure and Variance images for sandbar detection within a multiple bar system on the southern coast of Brazil, and verified the relation between wave breaking patterns, observed as bands of high intensity in these images and cross-shore profiles of modeled wave energy dissipation (xD). Not only is Time-exposure maximum pixel intensity location (xi-Ti) well related to xb, but also to the maximum pixel intensity location of Variance images (xi-Va), although the latter was typically located 15m offshore of the former. In addition, xi-Va was observed to be better associated with xD even though xi-Ti is commonly assumed as maximum wave energy dissipation. Significant wave height (Hs) and water level (??) were observed to affect the two types of images in a similar way, with an increase in both Hs and ?? resulting in xi shifting offshore. This ??-induced xi variability has an opposite behavior to what is described in the literature, and is likely an indirect effect of higher waves breaking farther offshore during periods of storm surges. Multiple regression models performed on xi, Hs and ?? allowed the reduction of the residual errors between xb and xi, yielding accurate estimates with most residuals less than 10m. Additionally, it was found that the sandbar position was best estimated using xi-Ti (xi-Va) when xb was located shoreward (seaward) of its mean position, for both the first and the second bar. Although it is unknown whether this is an indirect hydrodynamic effect or is indeed related to the morphology, we found that this

  12. Effects of long- and short-term management on the functional structure of meadows through species turnover and intraspecific trait variability.

    PubMed

    Volf, Martin; Redmond, Conor; Albert, Ágnes J; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Biella, Paolo; Götzenberger, Lars; Hrázský, Záboj; Janeček, Štěpán; Klimešová, Jitka; Lepš, Jan; Šebelíková, Lenka; Vlasatá, Tereza; de Bello, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The functional structures of communities respond to environmental changes by both species replacement (turnover) and within-species variation (intraspecific trait variability; ITV). Evidence is lacking on the relative importance of these two components, particularly in response to both short- and long-term environmental disturbance. We hypothesized that such short- and long-term perturbations would induce changes in community functional structure primarily via ITV and turnover, respectively. To test this we applied an experimental design across long-term mown and abandoned meadows, with each plot containing a further level of short-term management treatments: mowing, grazing and abandonment. Within each plot, species composition and trait values [height, shoot biomass, and specific leaf area (SLA)] were recorded on up to five individuals per species. Positive covariations between the contribution of species turnover and ITV occurred for height and shoot biomass in response to both short- and long-term management, indicating that species turnover and intraspecific adjustments selected for similar trait values. Positive covariations also occurred for SLA, but only in response to long-term management. The contributions of turnover and ITV changed depending on both the trait and management trajectory. As expected, communities responded to short-term disturbances mostly through changes in intraspecific trait variability, particularly for height and biomass. Interestingly, for SLA they responded to long-term disturbances by both species turnover and intraspecific adjustments. These findings highlight the importance of both ITV and species turnover in adjusting grassland functional trait response to environmental perturbation, and show that the response is trait specific and affected by disturbance regime history.

  13. Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Tsurutani, Bruce; Yan, Yihua

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES-II period on the short-term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near-Earth space environment. CAWSES-II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar-terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short-term variability that has immediate consequence to Earth and geospace manifests as solar eruptions from closed-field regions and high-speed streams from coronal holes. Both electromagnetic (flares) and mass emissions (coronal mass ejections - CMEs) are involved in solar eruptions, while coronal holes result in high-speed streams that collide with slow wind forming the so-called corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs affect Earth via leading shocks accelerating energetic particles and creating large geomagnetic storms. CIRs and their trailing high-speed streams (HSSs), on the other hand, are responsible for recurrent small geomagnetic storms and extended days of auroral zone activity, respectively. The latter leads to the acceleration of relativistic magnetospheric `killer' electrons. One of the major consequences of the weak solar activity is the altered physical state of the heliosphere that has serious implications for the shock-driving and storm-causing properties of CMEs. Finally, a discussion is presented on extreme space weather events prompted by the 23 July 2012 super storm event that occurred on the backside of the Sun. Many of these studies were enabled by the simultaneous availability of remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points with respect to the Sun-Earth line.

  14. Climate-induced variations in lake levels: A mechanism for short-term sea level change during non-glacial times

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobs, D. ); Sahagian, D. . Dept of Geological Sciences)

    1992-01-01

    Variations in insolation due to periodic orbital parameters can cause climatic changes and associated variations in the intensity of monsoonal circulation. This can lead to significant variations in the levels of internally draining lakes on timescales of 10,000 to 100,000 years in regions affected by the monsoon (20,000 years for orbital precession). These variations may be responsible for small scale (few meters) eustatic sea level changes in an ice-free Earth, and may contribute to sea level changes in the presence of ice as well. The authors have estimated the volume of empty present lake basins in the regions of Asia and North Africa influenced by the monsoon. The surface water volume alone of these basins is equivalent to a two meter difference in sea level, but is considerably augmented by groundwater associated with an increase in lake level. The lake variation mechanism for sea level change has its basis in the Quaternary record of climate change and associated explanatory models. However, the argument also applies to earlier, non-glacial periods of geologic time. Clear evidence for the presence of ice in the Triassic is lacking. However, there is evidence for short-term periodic fluctuations of lake levels as well as sea level during that time. These sea level changes, as well as those in the Devonian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous, may be driven by periodic fluctuation in lacustrine and groundwater storage resulting from orbitally forced changes in monsoon intensity, even in the absence of significant glacial ice.

  15. Validity and Usefulness of `Wearable Blood Pressure Sensing' for Detection of Inappropriate Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability in the Elderly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iijima, Katsuya; Kameyama, Yumi; Akishita, Masahiro; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Yanagimoto, Shintaro; Imai, Yasushi; Yahagi, Naoki; Lopez, Guillaume; Shuzo, Masaki; Yamada, Ichiro

    An increase in short-term blood pressure (BP) variability is a characteristic feature in the elderly. It makes the management of hemodynamics more difficult, because it is frequently seen disturbed baro-reflex function and increased arterial stiffness, leading to isolated systolic hypertension. Large BP variability aggravates hypertensive target organ damage and is an independent risk factor for the cardiovascular (CV) events in elderly hypertensive patients. Therefore, appropriate control in BP is indispensable to manage lifestyle-related diseases and to prevent subsequent CV events. In addition, accumulating recent reports show that excessive BP variability is also associated with a decline in cognitive function and fall in the elderly. In the clinical settings, we usually evaluate their health condition, mainly with single point BP measurement using cuff inflation. However, unfortunately we are not able to find the close changes in BP by the traditional way. Here, we can show our advantageous approach of continuous BP monitoring using newly developing device `wearable BP sensing' without a cuff stress in the elderly. The new device could reflect systolic BP and its detailed changes, in consistent with cuff-based BP measurement. Our new challenge suggests new possibility of its clinical application with high accuracy.

  16. Climate Variability Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David (Editor)

    2002-01-01

    The Annual Report of the Climate Variability Program briefly describes research activities of Principal Investigators who are funded by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Division. The report is focused on the year 2001. Utilization of satellite observations is a singularity of research on climate science and technology at JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory). Research at JPL has two foci: generate new knowledge and develop new technology.

  17. Short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral zone fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pierce, C.L.; Sexton, M.D.; Pelham, M.E.; Larscheid, J.G.

    2001-01-01

    We assessed short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa. Fish were sampled in several locations at night with large beach seines during spring, summer and fall of 1995-1998. Long-term changes were inferred from comparison with a similar study conducted over 70 y earlier in Spirit Lake. We found 26 species in the littoral zone. The number of species per sample ranged from 4 to 18, averaging 11.8. The average number of species per sample was higher at stations with greater vegetation density. A distinct seasonal pattern was evident in the number of species collected per sample in most years, increasing steadily from spring to fall. Patterns of variability within our 1995-1998 study period suggest that: (1) numerous samples are necessary to adequately characterize a littoral fish community, (2) sampling should be done when vegetation and young-of-year densities are highest and (3) sampling during a single year is inadequate to reveal the full community. The number of native species has declined by approximately 25% over the last 70 y. A coincident decline in littoral vegetation and associated habitat changes during the same period are likely causes of the long-term community change.

  18. Short-term radio variability and parsec-scale structure in A gamma-ray narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 0323+342

    SciTech Connect

    Wajima, Kiyoaki; Fujisawa, Kenta; Hayashida, Masaaki; Isobe, Naoki; Ishida, Takafumi; Yonekura, Yoshinori

    2014-02-01

    We made simultaneous single-dish and very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) observations of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 323+342, showing gamma-ray activity revealed by Fermi/Large Area Telescope observations. We found significant variation of the total flux density at 8 GHz on the timescale of one month by the single-dish monitoring. The total flux density varied by 5.5% in 32 days, which is comparable to the gamma-ray variability timescale, corresponding to the variability brightness temperature of 7.0 × 10{sup 11} K. The source consists of central and southeastern components on the parsec (pc) scale. Only the flux of the central component decreased in the same way as the total flux density, indicating that the short-term radio variability, and probably the gamma-ray-emitting region, is associated with this component. From the VLBI observations, we obtained brightness temperatures of greater than (5.2 ± 0.3) × 10{sup 10} K and derived an equipartition Doppler factor of greater than 1.7, a variability Doppler factor of 2.2, and an 8 GHz radio power of 10{sup 24.6} W Hz{sup –1}. Combining them, we conclude that acceleration of radio jets and creation of high-energy particles are ongoing in the central engine and that the apparent very radio-loud feature of the source is due to the Doppler boosting effect, resulting in the intrinsic radio loudness being an order of magnitude smaller than the observed values. We also conclude that the pc-scale jet represents recurrent activity from the spectral fitting and the estimated kinematic age of pc- and kpc-scale extended components with different position angles.

  19. Short-term Radio Variability and Parsec-scale Structure in a Gamma-Ray Narrow-line Seyfert 1 Galaxy 1H 0323+342

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wajima, Kiyoaki; Fujisawa, Kenta; Hayashida, Masaaki; Isobe, Naoki; Ishida, Takafumi; Yonekura, Yoshinori

    2014-02-01

    We made simultaneous single-dish and very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) observations of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 323+342, showing gamma-ray activity revealed by Fermi/Large Area Telescope observations. We found significant variation of the total flux density at 8 GHz on the timescale of one month by the single-dish monitoring. The total flux density varied by 5.5% in 32 days, which is comparable to the gamma-ray variability timescale, corresponding to the variability brightness temperature of 7.0 × 1011 K. The source consists of central and southeastern components on the parsec (pc) scale. Only the flux of the central component decreased in the same way as the total flux density, indicating that the short-term radio variability, and probably the gamma-ray-emitting region, is associated with this component. From the VLBI observations, we obtained brightness temperatures of greater than (5.2 ± 0.3) × 1010 K and derived an equipartition Doppler factor of greater than 1.7, a variability Doppler factor of 2.2, and an 8 GHz radio power of 1024.6 W Hz-1. Combining them, we conclude that acceleration of radio jets and creation of high-energy particles are ongoing in the central engine and that the apparent very radio-loud feature of the source is due to the Doppler boosting effect, resulting in the intrinsic radio loudness being an order of magnitude smaller than the observed values. We also conclude that the pc-scale jet represents recurrent activity from the spectral fitting and the estimated kinematic age of pc- and kpc-scale extended components with different position angles.

  20. Short term spatio-temporal variability of soil water-extractable calcium and magnesium after a low severity grassland fire in Lithuania.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Martin, David

    2014-05-01

    Fire has important impacts on soil nutrient spatio-temporal distribution (Outeiro et al., 2008). This impact depends on fire severity, topography of the burned area, type of soil and vegetation affected, and the meteorological conditions post-fire. Fire produces a complex mosaic of impacts in soil that can be extremely variable at small plot scale in the space and time. In order to assess and map such a heterogeneous distribution, the test of interpolation methods is fundamental to identify the best estimator and to have a better understanding of soil nutrients spatial distribution. The objective of this work is to identify the short-term spatial variability of water-extractable calcium and magnesium after a low severity grassland fire. The studied area is located near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire, it was designed in a burned area a plot with 400 m2 (20 x 20 m with 5 m space between sampling points). Twenty five samples from top soil (0-5 cm) were collected immediately after the fire (IAF), 2, 5, 7 and 9 months after the fire (a total of 125 in all sampling dates). The original data of water-extractable calcium and magnesium did not respected the Gaussian distribution, thus a neperian logarithm (ln) was applied in order to normalize data. Significant differences of water-extractable calcium and magnesium among sampling dates were carried out with the Anova One-way test using the ln data. In order to assess the spatial variability of water-extractable calcium and magnesium, we tested several interpolation methods as Ordinary Kriging (OK), Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF) - Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ) Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) - and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2. Interpolation tests were carried out with Ln data. The best interpolation method was assessed using the

  1. Zoonoses and climate variability.

    PubMed

    Cardenas, Rocio; Sandoval, Claudia M; Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J; Vivas, Paul

    2008-12-01

    Leishmaniasis in the Americas is transmitted by Lutzomyia spp., which have many animal reservoirs. Previous studies indicated potential changes in vectors of climate-related distribution, but impact outcomes need to be further studied. We report climatic and El Niño events during 1985-2002 that may have had an impact on leishmaniasis in 11 southern departments of Colombia: Amazonas, Caquetá, Cauca (Ca), Huila, Meta (Mt), Nariño, Putumayo (Py), Tolima, Valle (Va), Vaupes (Vp), and Vichada. Climatic data were obtained by satellite and epidemiologic data were obtained from the Health Ministry. NOAA climatic classification and SOI/ONI indexes were used as indicators of global climate variability. Yearly variation comparisons and median trend deviations were made for disease incidence and climatic variability. During this period there was considerable climatic variability, with a strong El Niño for 6 years and a strong La Niña for 8. During this period, 19,212 cases of leishmaniasis were registered, for a mean of 4756.83 cases/year. Disease in the whole region increased (mean of 4.98%) during the El Niño years in comparison to the La Niña years, but there were differences between departments with increases during El Niño (Mt 6.95%, Vp 4.84%), but the rest showed an increase during La Niña (1.61%-64.41%). Differences were significant in Va (P= 0.0092), Py (P= 0.0001), Ca (P= 0.0313), and for the whole region (P= 0.0023), but not in the rest of the departments. The importance of climate change is shown by shifts in insect and animal distributions. These data reflect the importance of climate on transmission of leishmaniasis and open further investigations related to forecasting and monitoring systems, where understanding the relationship between zoonoses and climate variability could help to improve the management of these emerging and reemerging diseases.

  2. Short-term fluctuations in vegetation and phytoplankton during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate: a 640-kyr record from the Messel oil shale (Germany)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter

    2011-11-01

    The Palaeogene was the most recent greenhouse period on Earth. Especially for the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene, several superimposed short-term hyperthermal events have been described, including extremes such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Major faunal and floral turnovers in the marine and terrestrial realms were recorded in association with these events. High-resolution palynological analysis of the early Middle Eocene maar lake sediments at Messel, near Darmstadt, Germany, provides an insight into the dynamics of a climax vegetation during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate in a time span without significant climatic excursions. Numerical techniques like detrended correspondence analysis and wavelet analysis have been applied to recognize cyclic fluctuations and long-term trends in the vegetation through a time interval of approximately 640 kyr. Based on the numerical zoning of the pollen diagram, three phases in the development of the vegetation may be distinguished. Throughout these phases, the climax vegetation did not change substantially in qualitative composition, but a trend towards noticeably less humid conditions probably in combination with a drop of the water level in the lake may be recognized. A shift in algal population from the freshwater dinoflagellate cyst Messelodinium thielepfeifferae to a dominance of Botryococcus in the uppermost part of the core is interpreted as a response to changes in acidity and nutrient availability within the lake. Time series analyses of pollen assemblages show that variations in the Milankovitch range of eccentricity, obliquity and precession can be distinguished. In addition, fluctuations in the sub-Milankovitch range are indicated. This demonstrates that floral changes during steady depositional conditions in the Middle Eocene of Messel were controlled by orbital forcing.

  3. The impact of climatic and seismic events on the short-term evolution of seacliffs based on 3-D mapping: Northern Monterey Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, C.; Richmond, B.

    2002-01-01

    Coastal cliff retreat along the central California coast is episodic, occurring in response to single large storms or seismic events. Traditional approaches to the study of long-term seacliff retreat utilize historical aerial photography and maps to delineate the landward migration of the top edge of the cliff over periods of tens of years to a century. While these methods yield cumulative retreat amounts, they provide little or no information on the character of the individual retreat events, nor the physical processes of retreat. This study addresses the processes of episodic and short-term coastal cliff retreat through the analysis of seacliff failure styles and retreat magnitudes. The study areas are three, 1-km-long sections of cliffed coast in northern Monterey Bay. The earliest data set is vertical aerial photography from October 18, 1989, taken the day following the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. More recent photography, collected in late January, early February and early March of 1998, captured seacliff failure in response to the severe storms associated with the 1997-1998 El Nin??o. For each data set, high-resolution digital photogrammetric techniques are used to identify the top edge of the cliff. At each cliff failure location, its position, failure length and character are documented. Results suggest that on a regional scale, the seacliffs respond to seismic and climatic forcing differently. We have found variation in the magnitude of cliff response along the three sections of coast in the study area. Large-scale climatic events such as the 1997-1998 El Nin??o have a greater impact on both the linear extent of seacliff failure and the amount of cliff retreat.

  4. The impacts of short-term exposure to noise and traffic-related air pollution on heart rate variability in young healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jing; Deng, Furong; Wu, Shaowei; Lu, Henry; Hao, Yu; Guo, Xinbiao

    2013-01-01

    Traffic-related air pollution and noise are associated with cardiovascular diseases, and alternation of heart rate variability (HRV), which reflects cardiac autonomic function, is one of the mechanisms. However, few studies considered the impacts of noise when exploring associations between air pollution and HRV. We explored whether noise modifies associations between short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and HRV in young healthy adults. In this randomized, crossover study, 40 young healthy adults stayed for 2 h in a traffic center and, on a separate occasion, in a park. Personal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants and noise were measured and ambulatory electrocardiogram was performed. Effects were estimated using mixed-effects regression models. Traffic-related air pollution and noise were both associated with HRV, and effects of air pollutants were amplified at high noise level (>65.6 A-weighted decibels (dB[A])) compared with low noise level (≤ 65.6 dB[A]). High frequency (HF) decreased by -4.61% (95% confidence interval, -6.75% to-2.42%) per 10 μg/m(3) increment in fine particle (PM2.5) at 5-min moving average, but effects became insignificant at low noise level (P>0.05). Similar effects modification was observed for black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO). We conclude that noise is an important factor influencing the effects of air pollution on HRV.

  5. Current Climate Variability & Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  6. Reliable long-lasting depression interacts with variable short-term facilitation to determine corticostriatal paired-pulse plasticity in young rats

    PubMed Central

    Akopian, G; Walsh, J P

    2007-01-01

    Synaptic plasticity at corticostraital synapses is proposed to fine tune movment and improve motor skills. We found paired-pulse plasticity at corticostriatal synapses reflected variably expressed short-term facilitation blended with a consistent background of longer-lasting depression. Presynaptic modulation via neuotransmitter receptor activation was ruled out as a mechanism for long-lasting paired-pulse depression by examining the effect of selective receptor antagonists. EPSC amplitude and paired-pulse plasticity, however, was influenced by block of D2 dopamine receptors. Block of glutamate transport with l-transdicarboxylic acid (PDC) reduced EPSCs, possibly through a mechanism of AMPA receptor desensitization. Removal of AMPA receptor desensitization with cyclothiazide reduced the paired-pulse depression at long-duration interstimulus intervals (ISIs), indicating that AMPA receptor desensitization participates in corticostriatal paired-pulse plasticity. The low-affinity glutamate receptor antagonist cis-2,3-piperidine dicarboxylic acid (PDA) increased paired-pulse depression, suggesting that a presynaptic component also exists for long-lasting paired-pulse depression. Low Ca2+–high Mg2+ or BAPTA-AM dramatically reduced the amplitude of corticostriatal EPSCs and both manipulations increased the expression of facilitation and, to a lesser extent, they reduced long-lasting paired-pulse depression. EGTA-AM produced a smaller reduction in EPSC amplitude and it did not alter paired-pulse facilitation, but in contrast to low Ca2+ and BAPTA-AM, EGTA-AM increased long-lasting paired-pulse depression. These experiments suggest that facilitation and depression are sensitive to vesicle depletion, which is dependent upon changes in peak Ca2+ (i.e. low Ca2+–high Mg2+ or BAPTA-AM). In addition, the action of EGTA-AM suggests that basal Ca2+ regulates the recovery from long-lasting paired-pulse depression, possibly thourgh a Ca2+-sensitive process of vesicle delivery

  7. Climate change, climate variability and brucellosis.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

    2013-04-01

    In addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods, climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, altering the composition of global atmosphere. This phenomenon continues to be a significant and global threat for the humankind, and its impact compromises many aspects of the society at different levels, including health. The impact of climate change on zoonotic diseases has been largely ignored, particularly brucellosis. We here review some direct and indirect evidences of the impact of climate change and climate variability on brucellosis.

  8. Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate, Arctic ice, and air pollution health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.

    2010-07-01

    This study examines the short-term (˜15 year) effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot (FS) (black carbon (BC), primary organic matter (POM), and S(IV) (H2SO4(aq), HSO4-, and SO42-)), solid-biofuel soot and gases (BSG) (BC, POM, S(IV), K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, NO3-, Cl- and several dozen gases, including CO2 and CH4), and methane on global and Arctic temperatures, cloudiness, precipitation, and atmospheric composition. Climate response simulations were run with GATOR-GCMOM, accounting for both microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation. The model treated discrete size-resolved aging and internal mixing of aerosol soot, discrete size-resolved evolution of clouds/precipitation from externally and internally mixed aerosol particles, and soot absorption in aerosols, clouds/precipitation, and snow/sea ice. Eliminating FS, FS+BSG (FSBSG), and CH4 in isolation were found to reduce global surface air temperatures by a statistically significant 0.3-0.5 K, 0.4-0.7 K, and 0.2-0.4 K, respectively, averaged over 15 years. As net global warming (0.7-0.8 K) is due mostly to gross pollutant warming from fossil-fuel greenhouse gases (2-2.4 K), and FSBSG (0.4-0.7 K) offset by cooling due to non-FSBSG aerosol particles (-1.7 to -2.3 K), removing FS and FSBSG may reduce 13-16% and 17-23%, respectively, of gross warming to date. Reducing FS, FSBSG, and CH4 in isolation may reduce warming above the Arctic Circle by up to ˜1.2 K, ˜1.7 K, and ˜0.9 K, respectively. Both FS and BSG contribute to warming, but FS is a stronger contributor per unit mass emission. However, BSG may cause 8 times more mortality than FS. The global e-folding lifetime of emitted BC (from all fossil sources) against internal mixing by coagulation was ˜3 h, similar to data, and that of all BC against dry plus wet removal was ˜4.7 days. About 90% of emitted FS BC mass was lost to internal mixing by coagulation, ˜7% to wet removal, ˜3% to dry removal, and a residual

  9. Short-term Variability of Physical and Chemical Parameters in Suboxic/Anoxic Bottom Waters of the Chesapeake Bay During Late July 2002.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montbriand, P. J.; Lewis, B. L.; Luther, G. W.; Glazer, B. T.; Ma, S.; Reedy, S.; Nuzzio, D. B.; Spencer, T.; Theberge, S.

    2002-12-01

    concentrations of ~40-70 μM (7-12 m depth), and 0.1-0.3 μM nitrite was observed in the surface layer. In the bottom waters, nitrite increased over the sampling period from 0 to about 0.07 μM. The data imply two sources of nitrite, ammonification/nitrification in the oxygenated waters and denitrification in the deep waters. Dissolved Mn increased below 12-14 meters, coincident with oxygen concentrations < 20 μM. Concentrations in the deep waters varied widely, from ~ 0.2 to 7 μM. Dissolved Fe(II) was detected only at oxygen levels < 5 μM, with concentrations in the deep waters ranging from ~ 0.2 to 1.4 μM. Plotting the chemical data versus salinity rather than depth decreases the scatter due to tidal variation and displays a clear separation between the onset of Mn and Fe reduction. This study illustrates the dynamic, rapidly changing nature of water-column anoxia in the Chesapeake Bay. The depth of oxygen penetration, the thickness of the suboxic zone and the concentration of sulfide in the deep waters fluctuate in response to tidal oscillations and to the passage of storm events. Real-time measurements are necessary to document these short-term variations.

  10. Climate Impact of Solar Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H. (Editor); Arking, Albert (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

  11. Short-term variability of 7Be atmospheric deposition and watershed response in a Pacific coastal stream, Monterey Bay, California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conaway, Christopher H.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Draut, Amy E.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2013-01-01

    Beryllium-7 is a powerful and commonly used tracer for environmental processes such as watershed sediment provenance, soil erosion, fluvial and nearshore sediment cycling, and atmospheric fallout. However, few studies have quantified temporal or spatial variability of 7Be accumulation from atmospheric fallout, and parameters that would better define the uses and limitations of this geochemical tracer. We investigated the abundance and variability of 7Be in atmospheric deposition in both rain events and dry periods, and in stream surface-water samples collected over a ten-month interval at sites near northern Monterey Bay (37°N, 122°W) on the central California coast, a region characterized by a rainy winters, dry summers, and small mountainous streams with flashy hydrology. The range of 7Be activity in rainwater samples from the main sampling site was 1.3–4.4 Bq L−1, with a mean (±standard deviation) of 2.2 ± 0.9 Bq L−1, and a volume-weighted average of 2.0 Bq L−1. The range of wet atmospheric deposition was 18–188 Bq m−2 per rain event, with a mean of 72 ± 53 Bq m−2. Dry deposition fluxes of 7Be ranged from less than 0.01 up to 0.45 Bq m−2 d−1, with an estimated dry season deposition of 7 Bq m−2 month−1. Annualized 7Be atmospheric deposition was approximately 1900 Bq m−2 yr−1, with most deposition via rainwater (>95%) and little via dry deposition. Overall, these activities and deposition fluxes are similar to values found in other coastal locations with comparable latitude and Mediterranean-type climate. Particulate 7Be values in the surface water of the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz, California, ranged from −1 to 0.6 Bq g−1, with a median activity of 0.26 Bq g−1. A large storm event in January 2010 characterized by prolonged flooding resulted in the entrainment of 7Be-depleted sediment, presumably from substantial erosion in the watershed. There were too few particulate 7Be data over the storm to accurately model a 7Be load

  12. Short-term energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-11-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents future scenarios of quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and prices for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous estimate errors, compares recent scenarios with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The scenario period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1990 through the fourth quarter of 1991. Some data for the third quarter of 1990 are preliminary EIA estimates of actual data (for example, some petroleum estimates are based on statistics from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are derived from internal model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, some electricity demand estimates are based on recent weather data). 11 figs., 13 tabs.

  13. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pap, J. M.

    2004-12-01

    One of the most exciting and important challenges in science today is to understand climate variability and to make reliable predictions. The Earth's climate is a complex system driven by external and internal forces. Climate can vary over a large range of time scales as a consequence of natural variability or anthropogenic influence, or both. Observations of steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases --primarily man-made-- in the Earth's atmosphere have led to an expectation of global warming during the coming decades. However, the greenhouse effect competes with other climate forcing mechanisms, such as solar variability, cosmic ray flux changes, desertification, deforestation, and changes in natural and man-made atmospheric aerosols. Indeed, the climate is always changing, and has forever been so, including periods before the industrial era began. Since the dominant driving force of the climate system is the Sun, the accurate knowledge of the solar radiation received by Earth at various wavelengths and from energetic particles with varying intensities, as well as a better knowledge of the solar-terrestrial interactions and their temporal and spatial variability are crucial to quantify the solar influence on climate and to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences. In this paper we give an overview on the recent results of solar irradiance measurements over the last three decades and the possible effects of solar variability on climate.

  14. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Waliser, Duane E.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

  15. Short-term water stress impacts on stomatal, mesophyll and biochemical limitations to photosynthesis differ consistently among tree species from contrasting climates.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Shuangxi; Medlyn, Belinda; Sabaté, Santiago; Sperlich, Dominik; Prentice, I Colin

    2014-10-01

    Predicting the large-scale consequences of drought in contrasting environments requires that we understand how drought effects differ among species originating from those environments. A previous meta-analysis of published experiments suggested that the effects of drought on both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis may vary consistently among species from different hydroclimates. Here, we explicitly tested this hypothesis with two short-term water stress experiments on congeneric mesic and xeric species. One experiment was run in Australia using Eucalyptus species and the second was run in Spain using Quercus species as well as two more mesic species. In each experiment, plants were grown under moist conditions in a glasshouse, then deprived of water, and gas exchange was monitored. The stomatal response was analysed with a recently developed stomatal model, whose single parameter g1 represents the slope of the relationship between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. The non-stomatal response was partitioned into effects on mesophyll conductance (gm), the maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax). We found consistency among the drought responses of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, suggesting that drought imposes limitations on Rubisco activity and RuBP regeneration capacity concurrently with declines in stomatal and mesophyll conductance. Within each experiment, the more xeric species showed relatively high g1 under moist conditions, low drought sensitivity of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, and more negative values of the critical pre-dawn water potential at which Vcmax declines most steeply, compared with the more mesic species. These results indicate adaptive interspecific differences in drought responses that allow xeric tree species to continue transpiration and photosynthesis for longer during periods without rain.

  16. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  17. Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2017-03-21

    Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N2O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N2O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N2O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N2O emissions were temporary and once the

  18. Evolution and climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Potts, R.

    1996-08-16

    Variations in organisms are preserved and accrue if there is a consistent bias in selection over many generations. This idea of long-term directional selection has been embraced to explain major adaptive change. It is widely thought that important adaptive shifts in hominids corresponded with directional environmental change. This view, which echoes the savanna scenario of hominid evolution, has strongly been supported by paleontologists and paleoclimatologists over the past decade. The origin of the hominids, bipedality, stone toolmaking, and brain size increase have all been related to cooling, aridification, and savanna expansion. However there appears to be a more prominent signal than the aridity trend: an increase in the range of climatic variation over time. This article discusses the possible reprocussions of this interpertation. 13 refs.

  19. Emotional Availability in Mother-Child Dyads: Short-Term Stability and Continuity from Variable-Centered and Person-Centered Perspectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bornstein, Marc H.; Gini, Motti; Suwalsky, Joan T. D.; Putnick, Diane L.; Haynes, O. Maurice

    2006-01-01

    Emotional availability (EA) is a prominent index of socioemotional adaptation in the parent-child dyad. Can basic psychometric properties of EA be looked at from both variable (scale) and person (cluster) points of view in individuals and in dyads? Is EA stable and continuous over a short period of time? This methodological study shows significant…

  20. Are commercial sweet cherry rootstocks adapted to climate change? Short-term waterlogging and CO2 effects on sweet cherry cv. 'Burlat'.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Jiménez, Margarita; Hernández-Munuera, María; Piñero, M Carmen; López-Ortega, Gregorio; Del Amor, Francisco M

    2017-01-20

    High CO2 is able to ameliorate some negative effects due to climate change and intensify others. This study involves the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) cultivar 'Burlat' grafted on the 'Mariana 2624', 'Adara' and 'LC 52' rootstocks. In a climate chamber at two CO2 concentrations, ambient (400 µmol mol(-1) ) and elevated (800 µmol mol(-1) ), the plants were submitted to waterlogging for 7 d, followed by 7 d of recovery after drainage. Waterlogging drastically decreased the rate of photosynthesis, significantly endangering plant survival, particularly for the 'LC 52' and 'Adara' rootstocks. 'Mariana 2624' was also clearly affected by waterlogging that increased lipid peroxidation and the Cl(-) and SO4(2-) concentrations in all the studied plants. Nevertheless, CO2 was able to overcome this reduction in photosynthesis, augmenting growth, increasing soluble sugars and starch, raising turgor and regulating the concentrations of Cl(-) and SO4(2-) , while lowering the NO3(-) concentration in leaves of all the studied rootstocks. In concordance with these results, the proline levels indicated a more intense stress at control CO2 than at high CO2 for waterlogged plants. 'Mariana 2624' was more resistant to waterlogging than 'Adara', and both were more resistant than 'LC 52' in control CO2 conditions; this clearly enhanced the chance of survival under hypoxia.

  1. Emergence of Algal Blooms: The Effects of Short-Term Variability in Water Quality on Phytoplankton Abundance, Diversity, and Community Composition in a Tidal Estuary

    PubMed Central

    Egerton, Todd A.; Morse, Ryan E.; Marshall, Harold G.; Mulholland, Margaret R.

    2014-01-01

    Algal blooms are dynamic phenomena, often attributed to environmental parameters that vary on short timescales (e.g., hours to days). Phytoplankton monitoring programs are largely designed to examine long-term trends and interannual variability. In order to better understand and evaluate the relationships between water quality variables and the genesis of algal blooms, daily samples were collected over a 34 day period in the eutrophic Lafayette River, a tidal tributary within Chesapeake Bay’s estuarine complex, during spring 2006. During this period two distinct algal blooms occurred; the first was a cryptomonad bloom and this was followed by a bloom of the mixotrophic dinoflagellate, Gymnodinium instriatum. Chlorophyll a, nutrient concentrations, and physical and chemical parameters were measured daily along with phytoplankton abundance and community composition. While 65 phytoplankton species from eight major taxonomic groups were identified in samples and total micro- and nano-phytoplankton cell densities ranged from 5.8 × 106 to 7.8 × 107 cells L−1, during blooms, cryptomonads and G. instriatum were 91.6% and 99.0%, respectively, of the total phytoplankton biomass during blooms. The cryptomonad bloom developed following a period of rainfall and concomitant increases in inorganic nitrogen concentrations. Nitrate, nitrite and ammonium concentrations 0 to 5 days prior were positively lag-correlated with cryptomonad abundance. In contrast, the G. insriatum bloom developed during periods of low dissolved nitrogen concentrations and their abundance was negatively correlated with inorganic nitrogen concentrations. PMID:27694775

  2. Longer-term and short-term variability in pollution of fluvial sediments by dioxin-like and endocrine disruptive compounds.

    PubMed

    Macikova, P; Kalabova, T; Klanova, J; Kukucka, P; Giesy, J P; Hilscherova, K

    2014-04-01

    Changes in pollutant loads in relatively dynamic river sediments, which contain very complex mixtures of compounds, can play a crucial role in the fate and effects of pollutants in fluvial ecosystems. The contamination of sediments by bioactive substances can be sensitively assessed by in vitro bioassays. This is the first study that characterizes detailed short- and long-term changes in concentrations of contaminants with several modes of action in river sediments. One-year long monthly study described seasonal and spatial variability of contamination of sediments in a representative industrialized area by dioxin-like and endocrine disruptive chemicals. There were significant seasonal changes in both antiandrogenic and androgenic as well as dioxin-like potential of river sediments, while there were no general seasonal trends in estrogenicity. Aryl hydrocarbon receptor-dependent potency (dioxin-like potency) expressed as biological TCDD-equivalents (BIOTEQ) was in the range of 0.5-17.7 ng/g, dry mass (dm). The greatest BIOTEQ levels in sediments were observed during winter, particularly at locations downstream of the industrial area. Estrogenicity expressed as estradiol equivalents (EEQ) was in the range of 0.02-3.8 ng/g, dm. Antiandrogenicity was detected in all samples, while androgenic potency in the range of 0.7-16.8 ng/g, dm dihydrotestosterone equivalents (DHT-EQ) was found in only 30 % of samples, most often during autumn, when antiandrogenicity was the least. PAHs were predominant contaminants among analyzed pollutants, responsible, on average, for 13-21 % of BIOTEQ. Longer-term changes in concentrations of BIOTEQ corresponded to seasonal fluctuations, whereas for EEQ, the inter-annual changes at some locations were greater than seasonal variability during 1 year. The inter- as well as intra-annual variability in concentrations of both BIOTEQ and EEQ at individual sites was greater in spring than in autumn which was related to hydrological conditions in the

  3. Impact of short-term climate variation and hydrology change on thermal structure and water quality of a canyon-shaped, stratified reservoir.

    PubMed

    Ma, Wei-Xing; Huang, Ting-Lin; Li, Xuan; Zhang, Hai-Han; Ju, Tuo

    2015-12-01

    Climate variation can have obvious effects on hydrologic conditions, which in turn can have direct consequences for the thermal regime and quality of water for human use. In this research, weekly surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2013 to investigate how changes of climate and hydrology affect the thermal regime and water quality at the Heihe Reservoir. Our results show that the hydrology change during the flooding season can both increase the oxygen concentration and accelerate the consumption of dissolved oxygen. Continuous heavy rainfall events occurred in September 2011 caused the mixing of the entire reservoir, which led to an increase in dissolved oxygen at the bottom until the next year. Significant turbid density flow was observed following the extreme rainfall events in 2012 which leading to a rapid increase in turbidity at the bottom (up to 3000 NTU). Though the dissolved oxygen at the bottom increased from 0 to 9.02 mg/L after the rainfall event, it became anoxic within 20 days due to the increase of water oxygen demand caused by the suspended matter brought by the storm runoff. The release of compounds from the sediments was more serious during the anaerobic period after the rainfall events and the concentration of total iron, total phosphorus, and total manganese at the bottom reached 1.778, 0.102, and 0.125 mg/L. The improved water-lifting aerators kept on running after the storm runoff occurred in 2013 to avoid the deterioration of water quality during anaerobic conditions and ensured the good water quality during the mixing period. Our results suggest preventive and remediation actions that are necessary to improve water quality and status.

  4. Monthly means of selected climate variables for 1985 - 1989

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, S.; Wu, C.-Y.; Zero, J.; Schemm, J.-K.; Park, C.-K.; Suarez, M.

    1992-01-01

    Meteorologists are accustomed to viewing instantaneous weather maps, since these contain the most relevant information for the task of producing short-range weather forecasts. Climatologists, on the other hand, tend to deal with long-term means, which portray the average climate. The recent emphasis on dynamical extended-range forecasting and, in particular measuring and predicting short term climate change makes it important that we become accustomed to looking at variations on monthly and longer time scales. A convenient toll for researchers to familiarize themselves with the variability which occurs in selected parameters on these time scales is provided. The format of the document was chosen to help facilitate the intercomparison of various parameters and highlight the year-to-year variability in monthly means.

  5. Short-term spectral and polarimetric variability in the Herbig AE star AB Aurigae as an indicator of the circumstellar inhomogeneity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beskrovnaya, N. G.; Pogodin, M. A.; Najdenov, I. D.; Romanyuk, I. I.

    1995-06-01

    We present the results of the simultaneous spectral and polarimetric investigation of AB Aur - the Ae Herbig star from the "PCyg" subclass. About 150 high-resolution CCD spectra in the region of Hα and more than 100 UBVRI measurements of the linear polarization were obtained at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory during two seasons in 1993 and 1994. Additional polarimetric observations in the B-band were carried out at the Special Astrophysical Observatory (Northern Caucasus). A strong variability of the Hα PCyg-type profile is analyzed on a timescale from hours to months. It is shown to be connected with circumstellar inhomogeneities moving in the envelope. The existence of a strong long-lived stream is supposed on the basis of joint spectral and polarimetric data in January 4-10, 1994.

  6. Solar variability, weather, and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Advances in the understanding of possible effects of solar variations on weather and climate are most likely to emerge by addressing the subject in terms of fundamental physical principles of atmospheric sciences and solar-terrestrial physis. The limits of variability of solar inputs to the atmosphere and the depth in the atmosphere to which these variations have significant effects are determined.

  7. Short-term variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa over the past 2200 years: validating the precipitation proxy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckles, L. K.; Weijers, J. W. H.; Verschuren, D.; Cocquyt, C.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.

    2015-04-01

    The branched vs. isoprenoid index of tetraethers (BIT index) in Lake Challa sediments has been applied as a monsoon precipitation proxy on the assumption that the primary source of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) was soil washed in from the lake's catchment. However, water column production has since been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa, meaning that there is no longer a clear mechanism linking BIT index variation and precipitation. Here we investigate BIT index variation and GDGT concentrations at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT data from profundal surface sediments and 45 months of sediment-trap deployment. The 2200 year record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore the BIT index. Also surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to those collected in August 2007. Increased bulk flux of settling particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March-April 2008 reflect an event of high detrital input to Lake Challa, concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil erosion event is succeeded by a large diatom bloom in July-August 2008 and a concurrent increase in GDGT-0 fluxes. Near-zero crenarchaeol fluxes indicate that no thaumarchaeotal bloom developed during the subsequent austral summer season; instead a peak in brGDGT fluxes is observed in December 2008. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from eroded soil washed into the lake, stimulated both diatom productivity and the GDGT-0 producing archaea which help decompose dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column. This disadvantaged the Thaumarchaeota that normally prosper during the following austral summer. Instead, a bloom of supposedly heterotrophic brGDGT-producing bacteria occurred

  8. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

    SciTech Connect

    Riahi, Keywan; Kriegler, Elmar; Johnson, Nils; Bertram, Christoph; den Elzen, Michel; Eom, Jiyong; Schaeffer, Michiel; Edmonds, James A.; Isaac, Morna; Krey, Volker; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Mejean, Aurelie; McCollum, David; Mima, Silvana; Turton, Hal; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wada, Kenichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Capros, Pantelis; Criqui, Patrick; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kainuma, M.; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE intermodeling comparison with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Ten modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emissions targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2C. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS), will become "a must" by 2030.

  9. Response of planktonic cladocerans (Class: Branchiopoda) to short-term changes in environmental variables in the surface waters of the Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Elbée, Jean; Lalanne, Yann; Castège, Iker; Bru, Noelle; D'Amico, Frank

    2014-08-01

    From January 2001 to December 2008, 73 surface plankton samples and 45 vertical profiles of sea temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were collected on a monthly basis from a single sampling station located in the Bay of Biscay (43°37N; 1°43W) (North-East Atlantic). Two types of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indexes were included in the data set and submitted to a Canonical Correspondence Analysis and Spearman non-parametric test. Significant breaks and levels in time series were tested using a data segmentation method. The temperature range varies from 11 °C to 25 °C. It begins to rise from April until August and then decline. Low salinity values occur in mid-spring (<34 PSU) and high values (>36 PSU) in autumn. Dissolved oxygen mean values were around 8 mg/l. In summer, when temperature and salinity are high, surface water layer is always accompanied with a significant deoxygenation, and the process reverses in winter. pH mean values range was 7.78-8.33. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of the two NAO indexes are strongly correlated to one another, but do not correlate with any hydrological or biological variable. Five of the seven cladocerans species which are present in the Bay of Biscay were found in this study. There is a strong pattern in species succession throughout the year: Evadne nordmanni is a vernal species, while Penilia avirostris and Pseudevadne tergestina occur mainly in summer and autumn. Evadne spinifera has a maximum abundance in spring, Podon intermedius in autumn, but they both occur throughout the year. However, for some thirty years, the presence of species has tended to become significantly extended throughout the year. During the 2001-2008 period, there was a noticeable decline and even a disappearance of the categories involved in sexual reproduction as well as those involved in parthenogenesis, in favor of non-breeding individuals.

  10. Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mörner, N.-A.

    The thermal conditions on Planet Earth are primarily the function of the energy in- put from the Sun. The variations in climate on Planet Earth is, however, primarily the function of the redistribution and reorganisation of the internal terrestrial heat balance. Solar variability may affect terrestrial climate (1) by direct changes in irradiance, a fac- tor, however, which is known to be very small, (2) by the solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field increasing and decreasing the shielding capacity to infalling cosmic-ray, which is known to affect the formation of clouds thereby also affecting global terrestrial climat, and (3) by the solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field leading to changes in the EarthSs rate of rotation which affect ocean and atmo- sphere circulation thereby also affecting global climate (and sea level). INTAS Project 97-301008 concerns the interaction between geomagnetic field changes and global climatic changes. No doubts, we see important links between externally and internally driven changes in the EarthSs geomagnetic field and changes in terrestrial climate.

  11. Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

    PubMed Central

    Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

  12. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  13. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  14. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  15. Harnessing Historical Climate Variability to Assess Multivariate Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.; Aitken, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    Climate is intrinsically multivariate—the collective influence of various aspects of weather at different times of year. A central challenge of climate change impact analysis is therefore to characterize changes in multiple temperature and precipitation variables simultaneously. Historical climate variability provides key context for relating climate variables to each other and assessing collective deviations from historical climate conditions. We have developed a Mahalanobian probability metric to describe spatial and temporal climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability. Our approach is particularly suited to evaluation of climate analogs in space and time, but also facilitates multivariate extensions to several prominent indices of climate change. We use this metric to detect the departure of multivariate climate conditions from the historical range of local variability across North America and to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to emergence of no-analog climates. With respect to interpreting climate extremes, some critical considerations emerge from this research. In particular, we highlight the potential for temporal aggregation to exaggerate the statistical significance of extreme conditions, and the dilemma of identifying an appropriate statistical distribution for precipitation across both space and time. Despite the challenges of interpreting the specific impacts associated with multivariate climate changes and extremes, expressing these conditions relative to historical climate variability provides a useful first approximation of their ecological and socioeconomic significance. Figure Caption: Demonstration of the use of the chi distribution to measure spatial climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability.

  16. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook.

  17. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  18. Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-Term

    MedlinePlus

    ... myhealthfinder Immunization Schedules Nutrient Shortfall Questionnaire Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-termJust about everyone has had a " ... time or another. But sudden severe abdominal pain (stomach pain), also called acute pain, shouldn't be ...

  19. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  20. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Folland, C. K.

    INTRODUCTION WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL - CLIMATE? WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? Atmospheric Processes Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE - VARIABILITY REFERENCES

  1. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    PubMed

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  2. Dependence of kinetic variables in the short-term release of Hg2+, Cu2+ and Zn2+ ions into synthetic saliva from an high-copper dental amalgam.

    PubMed

    Campus, Guglielmo; Garcia-Godoy, Franklin; Gaspa, Leonardo; Panzanelli, Angelo; Piu, Paola C; Micera, Giovanni; Lugliè, Pierfranca; Sanna, Gavino

    2007-08-01

    The short term (up to 14 days after restoration) release of selected ions (i.e., Hg(2+), Cu(2+) and Zn(2+)) from Dispersalloy into artificial saliva has been evaluated in regards to the nature of the saliva (Fusayama and McCarty and Shklar's solutions), the amount of amalgam, the time of contact and the periodical renewal (every 48 h interval) of artificial saliva. The evaluation of the ionic fraction of such metals has been accomplished by using anodic stripping methods (i.e., Differential Pulse Anodic Stripping Voltammetry, DPASV) with a 7 microm graphite disk microelectrode as a working electrode. Data obtained in this work are almost unprecedented in the literature due the fact that such analytical method exclude metals in non-ionic forms (e.g., metals or organometallic compounds). The high concentrations measured in every experimental condition confirm the concern for the short-term release of metals from amalgam into saliva.

  3. Short-term energy outlook: Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornett, C.; Paxson, D.; Reznek, A. P.; Chu, C.; Sitzer, S.; Gamson, N.; Childress, J. P.; Paul, S.; Weigel, H.; Sutton, S.

    1981-05-01

    Detailed discussions of forecasting methodology and analytical topics concerning short-term energy markets are presented. Major assumptions necessary to make the energy forecasts are also discussed. Supplementary analyses of topics related to short-term energy forecasting are also given. The discussions relate to the forecasts prepared using the short term integrated forecasting system. This set of computer models uses data from various sources to develop energy supply and demand balances. Econmetric models used to predict the demand for petroleum products, natural gas, coal, and electricity are discussed. Price prediction models are also discussed. The role of oil inventories in world oil markets is reviewed. Various relationship between weather patterns and energy consumption are discussed.

  4. Theoretical models of synaptic short term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Hennig, Matthias H.

    2013-01-01

    Short term plasticity is a highly abundant form of rapid, activity-dependent modulation of synaptic efficacy. A shared set of mechanisms can cause both depression and enhancement of the postsynaptic response at different synapses, with important consequences for information processing. Mathematical models have been extensively used to study the mechanisms and roles of short term plasticity. This review provides an overview of existing models and their biological basis, and of their main properties. Special attention will be given to slow processes such as calcium channel inactivation and the effect of activation of presynaptic autoreceptors. PMID:23626536

  5. Metropolitan French: Familiarization & Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iszkowski, Marie-Charlotte

    The U.S. Department of State's Foreign Service Institute French Familiarization and Short-Term (FAST) course for personnel working and living in France consists of 10 weeks of French language instruction combined with practical and cultural information. An introductory section outlines FAST course objectives and sample teaching techniques in…

  6. Spanish: Familiarization and Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arbelaez, Vicente; And Others

    The State Department's Foreign Service Institute short-term, intensive course in Spanish language and culture for government employees going to work in Spanish-speaking countries contains an introductory section and 38 lessons and 10 related audio cassettes intended as the basis for a ten-week program with an instructor. The lessons cover these…

  7. Short-Term Play Therapy for Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaduson, Heidi Gerard, Ed.; Schaefer, Charles E., Ed.

    Play therapy offers a powerful means of helping children resolve a wide range of psychological difficulties, and many play approaches are ideally suited to short-term work. This book brings together leading play therapists to share their expertise on facilitating children's healing in a shorter time frame. The book provides knowledge and skills…

  8. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Joanna

    2013-03-01

    The need to distinguish natural from anthropogenic causes of climate change makes it important to understand and quantify any impact of the Sun. In this talk I will outline what is known about variations in solar output and review the evidence for solar influences on climate over a range of timescales. When the Sun is more active our work shows the response in temperature is not a warming of the tropics but mainly of mid-latitudes, along with a weakening and poleward shift of the jet streams and storm-tracks. Using climate models we have found that an important factor driving this response is the absorption in the stratosphere of solar UV radiation and we have identified a dynamical coupling mechanism which transfers a solar signal from the stratosphere to the atmosphere below. This means that simple assessments of the solar impact based on energy balance ideas may be effective in estimating global mean temperature change but might be neglecting important effects on regional climate. During the last solar cycle minimum the Sun was in a state of very low activity and some satellite measurements have suggested that the solar spectrum has been behaving in a strange and unexpected way. The talk will finish with a discussion of recent work on the implications of these spectral variations.

  9. The economics of short-term leasing.

    PubMed

    Flath, D

    1980-04-01

    Short-term leasing is an everyday occurrence. Tax savings cannot account for the ubiquity of leasing by temporary users. Monopoly explanations are inconsistent with concurrent leasing and selling markets for perfect substitutes. Leasing economizes upon the costs of detecting, assuring, and maintaining quality, costs of search, and costs of risk-bearing. This view is based on standard economic reasoning and has numerous specific implications.

  10. Reconstruction of Past Climatic Variability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-03-01

    United States. Extensive tree-ring sampling would be required In those areas to validate the revised hypothesis. In a similar vein, corn and wheat ...1910-1961. The tree-ring amplitudes were derived from the aforementioned 49-station network and formed the set of independent variables. The wheat ...Indices were based upon a weighted average of wheat production in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, and it is unclear

  11. Mediterranean dunes on the go: Evidence from a short term study on coastal herbaceous vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prisco, Irene; Stanisci, Angela; Acosta, Alicia T. R.

    2016-12-01

    Detailed monitoring studies on permanent sites are a promising tool for an accurate evaluation of short, medium or long term vegetation dynamics. This work aims to evaluate short-term changes in coastal dune herbaceous plant species and EU Habitats through a multi-temporal analysis using permanent vegetation transects. In particular, (I) we analyze changes in species richness of coastal habitats; (II) we identify changes in plant cover of selected focal plants; and (III) we relate the changes to selected climatic variables and erosion/accretion processes. We selected one of the Italian's peninsula best preserved coastal dune areas (ca. 50 km along the Adriatic sea) with a relatively homogeneous coastal zonation and low anthropic pressure but with different erosion/accretion processes. We explored changes in richness over time using generalized linear models (GLMs). We identified different ecological guilds: focal, ruderal and alien plant species and investigated temporal trends in these guilds' species richness. We also applied GLMs to determine how plant cover of the most important focal species have changed over time. Overall, in this study we observed that the influence of climatic variables was relatively small. However, we found remarkable different trends in response to erosion/accretion processes both at community and at species level. Thus, our results highlight the importance of coastal dynamics in preserving not only coastal vegetation zonation, but also species richness and focal species cover. Moreover, we identified the dune grasslands as the most sensitive habitat for detecting the influence of climatic variables throughout a short term monitoring survey. Information from this study provides useful insights for detecting changes in vegetation, for establishing habitat protection priorities and for improving conservation efforts for these fragile ecosystems.

  12. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  13. Climatic Variability In Tropical Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, L. W.

    2003-04-01

    atmospheric condition and hence reduces rainfall for about 1.5 years in tropical countries. This was proved in 2001. This forecast was presented as a paper in 1998 Stockholm Water Symposium. The results were true for Brazil as well. The danger is now over when the episode is relaxed. Second half of 2002 was heavily wet and all the tanks in Sri Lanka except Kirindioya complex in Hambanthoa area got filled. This condition was seen in 1997 where all tanks got filled. El Nino analysts declared 1997 as a drought year as the previous year had experienced warming in Pacific Ocean. Southern Oscillation events are now dissociating to conformity. Discussion Hambanthoa District remained in the dry zone of Sri Lanka for 2000 years as the soil forms expressed as reddish brown earths. Original kingdoms had its base in Anuradhapura in Northcentral Province and Magama in Hambanthota district. Tools used by contemporary farmers were not powerful to use enormous water resources in wet zone. A system of diversion dams and use of run of the river irrigation has proved as the main criteria of that era. Diversion dams and canal projects were in existence. The diversion dams with special shape was mistaken by british surveyors and marked as broken dams in plans. DLOMendis later identified these as effective deflecting dams. The purpose was to wet the area to do cultivation. This system of wetting the land was suitable for dry climates with low rainfall. High technology was introduced by Irrigation Department to construct several reservoirs in Hambanthota. This was planned after the insufficient water use of Ellagala anicut from Kirindi Oya. Next step was to plan a reservoir project at Lunugamvehera dam site. Precipitation data available for 50 years were studied and a reservoir was designed for 20 000acres of paddy. It was planned to cultivate rice for Maha season and other field crops for Yala season. Cultivation commenced in 1985 and the farmers had enough water for 20000acres including

  14. Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Dole, Randall; vandenDool, Huug; Suarez, Max; Waliser, Duane

    2002-01-01

    This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

  15. Response of middle atmosphere to short-term solar ultraviolet variations: 1. observations

    SciTech Connect

    Keating, G.M.; Pitts, M.C.; Brasseur, G.; De Rudder, A.

    1987-01-20

    A series of studies were performed concerning the response of low-latitude ozone and temperature in the stratosphere and mesosphere to short-term solar ultraviolet variability associated with the rotation of the sun.

  16. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  17. Weather variability, climatic change, and soybean production

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, L.M.

    1985-01-01

    A crop/weather model was used to determine the effect of changing climate and weather variability on soybean production in the Corn Belt. A cooling trend from the 1930s to the 1970s was accompanied by an upward trend in July plus August rainfall. There was decreased weather variability from the 1930s to 1973 and greatly increased weather variability after 1973. Improved weather from 1930 to 1972 increased soybean yields 3 bushels/acre. Higher intensity rainfalls increased in Illinois and Iowa after 1970.

  18. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and

  19. Short term dynamics of the debris-covered Miage Glacier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fyffe, Catriona; Brock, Ben; Kirkbride, Martin; Mair, Doug; Smiraglia, Claudio; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina

    2016-04-01

    Due to the often inaccessible nature of debris-covered glaciers, studies of their dynamics tend to be restricted to those using remotely sensed data. This paper presents data on the short-term glacier dynamics of the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Western Italian Alps. The glacier velocity was calculated from repeat occupation of up to 22 points using a differential GPS system over two melt seasons. Meteorological, hydrological and water chemistry data were collected over the same time periods, and the nature of the hydrological system was studied using dye tracing, to allow the short term variations in glacier dynamics to be understood in terms of the likely glacial drainage system and its evolution. The highest glacier velocities and the greatest velocity variability was found near to where a cluster of moulins enter the glacier, close to the limit of continuous debris cover. The melt from the clean and dirty ice occasionally led to inputs overcoming the channelized system (both in spring and mid-summer), leading to increased velocities. On the debris-covered lower glacier however velocities were lower and less variable, and significant speed-up was confined to a period when subglacial water was thought to have been transferred subglacially from higher upglacier. The subdued sub-debris melt signal is thought to be the cause of the reduced velocity variability, in spite of the hydrological system beneath this part of the glacier remaining inefficient.

  20. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  1. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability.

    PubMed

    Ray, Deepak K; Gerber, James S; MacDonald, Graham K; West, Paul C

    2015-01-22

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  2. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    PubMed Central

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

  3. Differentiating Climatic Variability with Multi - Permutation Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Law-Evans, Elizabeth

    It is hypothesized that a Multi-Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP) can be developed which can detect changes in natural time series. A companion hypothesis is that climatic and hydrologic changes have occurred in historical time in watersheds in Colorado and northern New Mexico. The non-parametric nature of MRPP precludes normality assumptions required by many techniques. The MRPP technique was applied to historical climatic and hydrologic time series (annual air temperature and snowfall; annual and monthly precipitation and streamflow). A variation of the MRPP technique was adapted, termed "moving-MRPP". The moving-MRPP marched the MRPP analyses through the series in a fashion similar to a moving average. The use of non-normal values brought about the greatest improvement between the results from the moving -MRPP technique with a distance exponent of one (v = 1) and the squared distance exponent (v = 2; used in "normal" or "classical" statistics such as standard deviation). Using moving-MRPP as an exploratory technique, seven meteorological and two streamflow sites in Colorado and New Mexico were studied. Analysis of the sites' historical records suggested region-wide changes in variability during the period of record which agreed with published dates and types of changes in hemispheric circulation regimes. Two changes in variability are especially noticeable: first, a period of low climatic variability from the early 1920s to the mid 1950s. Second, a period of highly variable conditions from the mid 1970s to 1986.

  4. Vitreon, a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade.

    PubMed Central

    Blinder, K J; Peyman, G A; Desai, U R; Nelson, N C; Alturki, W; Paris, C L

    1992-01-01

    This investigation of the liquid perfluorocarbon, perfluorophenanthrene (Vitreon), establishes its safety and efficacy as a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade. We utilised Vitreon as an intraoperative tool and postoperative vitreoretinal tamponade in 16 patients. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) (six), giant retinal tear (four), rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (three), retinal detachment with keratoprosthesis (two), and submacular and vitreous haemorrhage (one) were successfully repaired. Vitreon was left in the eye and removed 5 days to 4 weeks postoperatively. Complications encountered included proliferative PVR (five), limited peripheral retinal detachment (three), macular pucker (two) cataract (three), hypotony (two), excessive fibrin reaction (one), and elevated intraocular pressure (one). At the latest evaluation, all retinas are attached with a follow-up of 1.25 to 12 months (mean 6.8 months). PMID:1420054

  5. Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klee, H.

    The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

  6. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  7. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalaacchi, Antonio J.

    1998-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  8. Short-Term Lifestyle Strategies for Sustaining Cognitive Status.

    PubMed

    Howard, Elizabeth P; Morris, John N; Steel, Knight; Strout, Kelley A; Fries, Brant E; Moore, Alice; Garms-Homolová, Vjenka

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive decline impacts older adults, particularly their independence. The goal of this project was to increase understanding of how short-term, everyday lifestyle options, including physical activity, help an older adult sustain cognitive independence. Using a secondary analysis of lifestyle choices, we drew on a dataset of 4,620 community-dwelling elders in the US, assessed at baseline and one year later using 2 valid and reliable tools, the interRAI Community Health Assessment and the interRAI Wellness tool. Decline or no decline on the Cognitive Performance Scale was the dependent variable. We examined sustaining one's status on this measure over a one-year period in relation to key dimensions of wellness through intellectual, physical, emotional, social, and spiritual variables. Engaging in physical activity, formal exercise, and specific recreational activities had a favorable effect on short-term cognitive decline. Involvement with computers, crossword puzzles, handicrafts, and formal education courses also were protective factors. The physical and intellectual domains of wellness are prominent aspects in protection from cognitive decline. Inherent in these two domains are mutable factors suitable for targeted efforts to promote older adult health and well-being.

  9. Short-Term Lifestyle Strategies for Sustaining Cognitive Status

    PubMed Central

    Morris, John N.; Steel, Knight; Strout, Kelley A.; Fries, Brant E.; Moore, Alice; Garms-Homolová, Vjenka

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive decline impacts older adults, particularly their independence. The goal of this project was to increase understanding of how short-term, everyday lifestyle options, including physical activity, help an older adult sustain cognitive independence. Using a secondary analysis of lifestyle choices, we drew on a dataset of 4,620 community-dwelling elders in the US, assessed at baseline and one year later using 2 valid and reliable tools, the interRAI Community Health Assessment and the interRAI Wellness tool. Decline or no decline on the Cognitive Performance Scale was the dependent variable. We examined sustaining one's status on this measure over a one-year period in relation to key dimensions of wellness through intellectual, physical, emotional, social, and spiritual variables. Engaging in physical activity, formal exercise, and specific recreational activities had a favorable effect on short-term cognitive decline. Involvement with computers, crossword puzzles, handicrafts, and formal education courses also were protective factors. The physical and intellectual domains of wellness are prominent aspects in protection from cognitive decline. Inherent in these two domains are mutable factors suitable for targeted efforts to promote older adult health and well-being. PMID:27891520

  10. Marathon Running May Cause Short-Term Kidney Injury

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_164324.html Marathon Running May Cause Short-Term Kidney Injury But ... of endurance are also tough on the kidneys. "Marathon runners demonstrate transient or reverse short-term kidney ...

  11. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    PubMed

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.

  12. Multiscale Variability of the Monsoon Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnamurthy, V.

    2005-05-01

    The reliability of weather forecasts is limited to a few days and is mainly determined by the synoptic scale features of the atmosphere. The predictability of weather models depends on the error growth determined by nonlinear terms representing advection. Smaller scale features, such as convection, may also influence the predictability of the synoptic scale forecasts. While the prediction of instantaneous states of the system may be impossible on longer time scale, there is optimism for medium-range and long-range forecasts of time-averaged features of the climate system. Such optimism is based on the observation that slowly-varying boundary forces such as sea surface temperature, soil moisture and snow influence the variability of the atmosphere on a longer time scale, especially in the tropical region. This study discusses the variability of such a tropical climate system, the monsoon, and shows that its variability consists of a combination of large-scale persistent seasonal mean component and intraseasonal variability of different time scales. The spatial variability of these components is also found to consist of different scales. By performing multi-channel singular spectrum analysis of daily rainfall, low-pressure systems, outgoing long-wave radiation and winds, two oscillatory modes with periods of about 45 and 20 days have been identified and shown to correspond to the active and break phases of the monsoon. These two intraseasonal modes, however, do not contribute much to the seasonal mean rainfall. Three other components of the MSSA are identified as the contributors to the seasonal mean rainfall, possibly arising from the influence of slowly-varying boundary forces. The prospect for making accurate long-range forecasts of the monsoon depends on the relative magnitudes of the large-scale seasonally persistent component and the intraseasonal component and on climate model experiments to establish a relation between the two components.

  13. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

  14. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  16. 75 FR 24497 - Short-Term, Small Amount Loans

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-05

    ... ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 701 RIN 3133-AD71 Short-Term, Small Amount Loans AGENCY: National Credit Union... federal credit unions (FCUs) to offer short-term, small amount loans (STS loans) as a viable alternative... regcomments@ncua.gov . Include ``[Your name] Comments on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (Short-term,...

  17. Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

  18. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  19. Short-term GNSS satellite clock stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griggs, E.; Kursinski, E. R.; Akos, D.

    2015-08-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) clock stability is characterized via the modified Allan deviation using active hydrogen masers as the receiver frequency reference. The high stability of the maser reference allows the GNSS clock contribution to the GNSS carrier phase variance to be determined quite accurately. Satellite clock stability for four different GNSS constellations are presented, highlighting the similarities and differences between the constellations as well as satellite blocks and clock types. Impact on high-rate applications, such as GNSS radio occultation (RO), is assessed through the calculation of the maximum carrier phase error due to clock instability. White phase noise appears to dominate at subsecond time scales. However, while we derived the theoretical contribution of white phase modulation to the modified Allan deviation, our analysis of the GNSS satellite clocks was limited to 1-200 s time scales because of inconsistencies between the subsecond results from the commercial and software-defined receivers. The rubidium frequency standards on board the Global Positioning System (GPS) Block IIF, BeiDou, and Galileo satellites show improved stability results in comparison to previous GPS blocks for time scales relevant to RO. The Globalnaya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) satellites are the least stable of the GNSS constellations in the short term and will need high-rate corrections to produce RO results comparable to those from the other GNSS constellations.

  20. Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, Jeffery G.; Dwyer, John L.; Roy, David P.

    2011-01-01

    As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record.

  1. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    DOEpatents

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  2. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Binda, Paola

    2017-01-01

    Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark) and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements), slow pupil oscillations, “hippus,” spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry). This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure) provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity. PMID:28163935

  3. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations.

    PubMed

    Binda, Paola; Lunghi, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark) and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements), slow pupil oscillations, "hippus," spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry). This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure) provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity.

  4. Gaze direction affects visuo-spatial short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Carlei, Christophe; Kerzel, Dirk

    2014-10-01

    Hemispheric asymmetries were investigated by changing the horizontal position of stimuli that had to be remembered in a visuo-spatial short-term memory task. Observers looked at matrices containing a variable number of filled squares on the left or right side of the screen center. At stimulus offset, participants reproduced the positions of the filled squares in an empty response matrix. Stimulus and response matrices were presented in the same quadrant. We observed that memory performance was better when the matrices were shown on the left side of the screen. We distinguished between recall strategies that relied on visual or non-visual (verbal) cues and found that the effect of gaze position occurred more reliably in participants using visual recall strategies. Overall, the results show that there is a solid enhancement of visuo-spatial short-term memory when observers look to the left. In contrast, vertical position had no influence on performance. We suggest that unilateral gaze to the left activates centers in the right hemisphere contributing to visuo-spatial memory.

  5. Climate variability and Port wine quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    ), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva

  6. Short-term variability and nocturnal decline in ambulatory blood pressure in normotension, white-coat hypertension, masked hypertension and sustained hypertension: a population-based study of older individuals in Spain.

    PubMed

    Gijón-Conde, Teresa; Graciani, Auxiliadora; López-García, Esther; Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; García-Esquinas, Esther; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Banegas, José R

    2017-02-09

    Blood pressure (BP) variability and nocturnal decline in blood pressure are associated with cardiovascular outcomes. However, little is known about whether these indexes are associated with white-coat and masked hypertension. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1047 community-dwelling individuals aged ⩾60 years in Spain in 2012. Three observer-measured home BPs and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) were performed under standardized conditions. BP variability was defined as BP s.d. and coefficient of variation. Differences in BP variability and nocturnal BP decrease between groups were adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical covariates using generalized linear models. Of the cohort, 21.7% had white-coat hypertension, 7.0% had masked hypertension, 21.4% had sustained hypertension, and 49.9% were normotensive. Twenty-four hour, daytime and night-time systolic BP s.d. and coefficients of variation were significantly higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension than those with normotension (P<0.05) and were similar to subjects with sustained hypertension. In untreated subjects, 24-h but not daytime or night-time BP variability indexes were significantly higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension than in those with normotension (P<0.05). Percentage decrease in nocturnal systolic and diastolic BP was greatest in the white-coat hypertension group and lowest in the masked hypertension group in all patients and untreated patients (P<0.05). Lack of nocturnal decline in systolic blood pressure was observed in 70.2% of subjects with normotension, 57.8% of subjects with white-coat hypertension, 78.1% of subjects with masked hypertension, and 72.2% of subjects with sustained hypertension (P<0.001). In conclusion, 24-h BP variability was higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension and blunted nocturnal BP decrease was observed more frequently in subjects with masked hypertension. These findings may help to explain the reports of increased

  7. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  8. Local-scale spatial modelling for interpolating climatic temperature variables to predict agricultural plant suitability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Mathew A.; Hall, Andrew; Kidd, Darren; Minansy, Budiman

    2016-05-01

    Assessment of local spatial climatic variability is important in the planning of planting locations for horticultural crops. This study investigated three regression-based calibration methods (i.e. traditional versus two optimized methods) to relate short-term 12-month data series from 170 temperature loggers and 4 weather station sites with data series from nearby long-term Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate stations. The techniques trialled to interpolate climatic temperature variables, such as frost risk, growing degree days (GDDs) and chill hours, were regression kriging (RK), regression trees (RTs) and random forests (RFs). All three calibration methods produced accurate results, with the RK-based calibration method delivering the most accurate validation measures: coefficients of determination ( R 2) of 0.92, 0.97 and 0.95 and root-mean-square errors of 1.30, 0.80 and 1.31 °C, for daily minimum, daily maximum and hourly temperatures, respectively. Compared with the traditional method of calibration using direct linear regression between short-term and long-term stations, the RK-based calibration method improved R 2 and reduced root-mean-square error (RMSE) by at least 5 % and 0.47 °C for daily minimum temperature, 1 % and 0.23 °C for daily maximum temperature and 3 % and 0.33 °C for hourly temperature. Spatial modelling indicated insignificant differences between the interpolation methods, with the RK technique tending to be the slightly better method due to the high degree of spatial autocorrelation between logger sites.

  9. Regression based modeling of vegetation and climate variables for the Amazon rainforests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kodali, A.; Khandelwal, A.; Ganguly, S.; Bongard, J.; Das, K.

    2015-12-01

    Both short-term (weather) and long-term (climate) variations in the atmosphere directly impact various ecosystems on earth. Forest ecosystems, especially tropical forests, are crucial as they are the largest reserves of terrestrial carbon sink. For example, the Amazon forests are a critical component of global carbon cycle storing about 100 billion tons of carbon in its woody biomass. There is a growing concern that these forests could succumb to precipitation reduction in a progressively warming climate, leading to release of significant amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Therefore, there is a need to accurately quantify the dependence of vegetation growth on different climate variables and obtain better estimates of drought-induced changes to atmospheric CO2. The availability of globally consistent climate and earth observation datasets have allowed global scale monitoring of various climate and vegetation variables such as precipitation, radiation, surface greenness, etc. Using these diverse datasets, we aim to quantify the magnitude and extent of ecosystem exposure, sensitivity and resilience to droughts in forests. The Amazon rainforests have undergone severe droughts twice in last decade (2005 and 2010), which makes them an ideal candidate for the regional scale analysis. Current studies on vegetation and climate relationships have mostly explored linear dependence due to computational and domain knowledge constraints. We explore a modeling technique called symbolic regression based on evolutionary computation that allows discovery of the dependency structure without any prior assumptions. In symbolic regression the population of possible solutions is defined via trees structures. Each tree represents a mathematical expression that includes pre-defined functions (mathematical operators) and terminal sets (independent variables from data). Selection of these sets is critical to computational efficiency and model accuracy. In this work we investigate

  10. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  11. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  12. Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P. C. D.; Jaffé, Peter R.

    2016-07-01

    Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr-1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

  13. Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P.C.D.; Jaffe, Peter R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

  14. A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique.

    PubMed

    Milani, Mohammad Reza Marami; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2015-09-11

    This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002-2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.

  15. A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique

    PubMed Central

    Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2015-01-01

    This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data. PMID:28231215

  16. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  17. Short-term variability during an anchor station study in the southern Benguela upwelling system: Abundance, distribution and estimated production of mesozooplankton with special reference to Calanoides carinatus (Krøyer, 1849)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheye, Hans M.

    Daytime zooplankton samples collected at a fixed station position in St Helena Bay during a 27-day time series in March-April 1987 were used to describe the variability in the vertical distribution, abundance and population age structure of Calanoides carinatus in response to upwelling-related processes, and to provide an estimate of their production. The vertical distribution of C. carinatus was characterized by ontogenetic layering of copepodites and adults. The thermocline delimited the maximum depth of young copepodites (CI-CIII). Older stages avoided low-oxygen (<1ml O 2l -1) bottom water. C. carinatus was usually not associated with the chlorophyll a maximum. The spatial segregation of young and older stages is briefly discussed in relation to differential feeding habits and diel vertical migration behaviour. The demographic structure of the C. carinatus population showed evidence of a stable age distribution of copepodites and adults during the first of two upwelling cycles observed during the study. Overall mean abundance was 360 animals m -3. However, during the second upwelling cycle their mean abundance was reduced to 183 animals m -3 and adults dominated the population by 54%. These changes in abundance and age structure are discussed in relation to upwelling-induced advective processes. Surface-dwelling young copepodites (CI-CIII) are thought to be transported away from the study site, while re-seeding of the reduced nearshore population probably took place through advection of diapausal pre-adults (CV) in the upwelled water. Daily production of juvenile C. carinatus was estimated at 0.7 mg C m -3d -1 which, combined with an egg production of 1.0mg C m -3d -1 by addult females, is equivalent to 2% of the observed daily primary production. The mean P:B ratio for the copepodite stages was 0.167d -1. The role of this dominant copepod and the mesozooplankton in the carbon budget in St Helena Bay is discussed. Consumption by mesozooplankters was estimated

  18. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone.

    PubMed

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-03-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Niño), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO(x) emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  19. Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Feigin, Alexander; Loskutov, Evgeny; Kurths, Juergen

    2015-01-01

    We suggest a new nonlinear expansion of space-distributed observational time series. The expansion allows constructing principal nonlinear manifolds holding essential part of observed variability. It yields low-dimensional hidden time series interpreted as internal modes driving observed multivariate dynamics as well as their mapping to a geographic grid. Bayesian optimality is used for selecting relevant structure of nonlinear transformation, including both the number of principal modes and degree of nonlinearity. Furthermore, the optimal characteristic time scale of the reconstructed modes is also found. The technique is applied to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) time series having a duration of 33 years and covering the globe. Three dominant nonlinear modes were extracted from the time series: the first efficiently separates the annual cycle, the second is responsible for ENSO variability, and combinations of the second and the third modes explain substantial parts of Pacific and Atlantic dynamics. A relation of the obtained modes to decadal natural climate variability including current hiatus in global warming is exhibited and discussed. PMID:26489769

  20. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

  1. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    PubMed

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review.

  2. Impact of large-scale climate variability and change on crop yields in Africa: An observational assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smoliak, B. V.; Po-Chedley, S.; Cullen, A. C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of the relationships between climate and agricultural production have progressed from opposite ends of the spatio-temporal spectrum. While studies of global-scale climate-yield relationships have provided estimates of the impact of multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation on recent production, studies of local weather impacts on yield have demonstrated the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on plant physiology, particularly with respect to the duration and timing of extremes. At intermediate spatial and temporal scales, somewhat of a gap in understanding exists. Our investigation contributes to better understanding climate-yield relationships at intermediate scales by assessing the impact of climate variability on crop yields at the country to continent scale on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Toward this end, we employ historical climatic data and reported cereal crop yields from the African continent, 1961 to 2009, in conjunction with principal component regression and partial least squares regression. Our results show that a discrete set of spatial patterns of climate variability account for up to half of the year-to-year variability in crop yields over portions of Africa. The impact of this climate variability is particularly strong in Sub-Saharan Africa, where large or prolonged deficits in yields can result in food shortages. The fundamental patterns of variability used to explain yield fluctuations are based on temperature and precipitation, chosen due to their influence on plant physiology; however, the time-varying behavior of the patterns may also be linked to coherent large-scale climate variability through regressions with sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and low-level wind fields. Results are distilled in terms of five UN designated geographic regions of Africa. Implications for short-term food security and future climate change are discussed.

  3. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    PubMed

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  4. Using Remote Sensing to Understand Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, J.; Gentine, P.

    2014-12-01

    While a major source of uncertainty in global climate model predictions is due to the coarseness of their resolution, a significant amount of error is also generated due to the lack of information regarding the interactions between atmospheric and land parameters over time. When the behavior of a certain parameter is not clearly understood it is frequently estimated as one specific value while in reality it may vary with time and space. Remote sensing is allowing researchers to better estimate each of these parameters so one can see how they change with time. This study is an effort to improve our knowledge of the inter-annual and seasonal variability in radiation, water and the carbon cycle using remote sensing products on a global scale. By examining monthly data over a multi-year period (data parameter and source are listed in Table 1) for fluorescence, groundwater, net radiation, vegetation indices, precipitation, soil moisture and evapotranspiration, we should be able to determine the behavior and interactions between these parameters and better understand how they vary together seasonally, annually and year to year. With this information it is our hope that global climate models can be improved to better understand what is occurring climatologically in the present as well as more accurately make predictions about future conditions. Table 1. Parameters and Sources Parameter Source Fluorescence Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT)1 Groundwater Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Net Radiation Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Vegetation Indices Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/ Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Precipitation Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Soil Moisture Water Cycle Mutimission Observation Strategy (WACMOS) Evapotranspiration Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM) 1In future work, we hope to use fluorescence data from

  5. Working memory training improves visual short-term memory capacity.

    PubMed

    Schwarb, Hillary; Nail, Jayde; Schumacher, Eric H

    2016-01-01

    Since antiquity, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have been interested in human memory. However, researchers today are still working to understand the capabilities, boundaries, and architecture. While the storage capabilities of long-term memory are seemingly unlimited (Bahrick, J Exp Psychol 113:1-2, 1984), working memory, or the ability to maintain and manipulate information held in memory, seems to have stringent capacity limits (e.g., Cowan, Behav Brain Sci 24:87-185, 2001). Individual differences, however, do exist and these differences can often predict performance on a wide variety of tasks (cf. Engle What is working-memory capacity? 297-314, 2001). Recently, researchers have promoted the enticing possibility that simple behavioral training can expand the limits of working memory which indeed may also lead to improvements on other cognitive processes as well (cf. Morrison and Chein, Psychol Bull Rev 18:46-60 2011). However, initial investigations across a wide variety of cognitive functions have produced mixed results regarding the transferability of training-related improvements. Across two experiments, the present research focuses on the benefit of working memory training on visual short-term memory capacity-a cognitive process that has received little attention in the training literature. Data reveal training-related improvement of global measures of visual short-term memory as well as of measures of the independent sub-processes that contribute to capacity (Awh et al., Psychol Sci 18(7):622-628, 2007). These results suggest that the ability to inhibit irrelevant information within and between trials is enhanced via n-back training allowing for selective improvement on untrained tasks. Additionally, we highlight a potential limitation of the standard adaptive training procedure and propose a modified design to ensure variability in the training environment.

  6. Workshop 3 (synthesis): climate variability, water systems and management options.

    PubMed

    Connor, R; Kuylenstierna, J

    2004-01-01

    Addressing climate variability now will better prepare us for future impacts of climate change. Sustained, multi-stakeholder dialogue at local through national levels is an approach that will reach the widest audience, helped by tools that illustrate vulnerability such as the Climate Vulnerability Index. Integrated water resources management deals with managing for variability and change and is therefore highly appropriate for dealing with climate impacts.

  7. Short-term predictions in forex trading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muriel, A.

    2004-12-01

    Using a kinetic equation that is used to model turbulence (Physica A, 1985-1988, Physica D, 2001-2003), we redefine variables to model the time evolution of the foreign exchange rates of three major currencies. We display live and predicted data for one period of trading in October, 2003.

  8. An 8700 Year Record of Holocene Climate Variability from the Yucatan Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, D.; Byrne, R.; Anderson, L.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of Holocene climate change in the Maya lowlands of Central America has improved significantly during the last several decades thanks to the development of proxy climate records from lake cores and speleothems. One important finding is that longer-term climate changes (i.e., millennial scale) were driven primarily by precessional forcing; less clear, however, are the causes of abrupt shifts and higher frequency (centennial to decadal) change recognized in many Holocene climate reconstructions. The mechanisms driving climate change on these time scales have been difficult to identify in the region, in part because the Yucatan peninsula is influenced by climatic conditions linked to both the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Additional complications arise from the development of dense human populations following the initial introduction of agriculture ~5000 cal yr BP, which had significant impact on the environment as a whole. Here we present the results of analyses (stable isotope, pollen, magnetic susceptibility, and physical properties) of a 7.25 m sediment core from Lago Puerto Arturo, a closed basin lake in the northern Peten, Guatemala. An age-depth model, based on 6 AMS radiocarbon determinations and created using CLAM, indicates the record extends to 8700 cal yr BP. Proxy data suggest that, similar to other low latitude sites, millennial scale climate at Lago Puerto Arturo was driven by changes in insolation. Higher frequency variability is associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics, reflecting latitudinal shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in both the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific. Solar forcing may also play a role in short-term climate change. The pollen and isotope records show that the entire period of prehispanic settlement and agricultural activity, i.e. ~5000-1000 cal yr B.P., was characterized by relatively dry conditions compared to before or after.

  9. [Short-term variability of blood pressure: physiology and pharmacology].

    PubMed

    Elghozi, J-L

    2008-06-01

    Non invasive continuous measurement of blood pressure (BP) is currently performed at the finger level. The various oscillations of BP are distinguished using spectral analysis based on the fast Fourier transform. The first order oscillation of BP is synchronous with the heart beat and generates pulsaltile changes in BP. Second order oscillations are generated by respiration and depend on intrathoracic pressure changes. They do not exceed few millimeters of mercury. Heart rate also oscillates with respiration. This respiratory sinus arrhythmia depends on vagal activity. A slower third order oscillation also called 10-s period rhythm or Mayer waves depend on vascular tone changes. These waves may reach 20 mmHg. Mayer waves reflect oscillations in resistance vessels and depend on sympathetic discharges. Sympathetic nerves determine oscillations in resistance vessels and cardiac rhythm at the same 0.1 Hz frequency. A better understanding of these oscillations helps in understanding BP regulatory mechanisms and in treating BP disorders. Prognosis of arterial hypertension also depends on these BP fluctuations. Recent time and frequency domain developments in the analysis of the reflex relationship between BP and heart rate allow the calculations of indexes of spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity. Baroreflex sensitivity is a new indicator of cardiovascular risk.

  10. Safety nets can help address the risks to nutrition from increasing climate variability.

    PubMed

    Alderman, Harold

    2010-01-01

    Models of climate change predict increased variability of weather as well as changes in agro-ecology. The increased variability will pose special challenges for nutrition. This study reviews evidence on climate shocks and nutrition and estimates the economic consequences in terms of reduced schooling and economic productivity stemming from nutritional insults in childhood. Panel data covering up to 20 y indicate that that short-term climate shocks have long-term impacts on children that persist, often into their adult lives. Other studies document the potential for relief programs to offset these shocks providing that the programs can be implemented with flexible financing, rapid identification of those affected by the shock, and timely scale-up. The last of these presumes that programs are already in place with contingency plans drawn up. Arguably, direct food distribution, including that of ready-to-use therapeutic food, may be part of the overall strategy. Even if such programs are too expensive for sustainable widespread use in the prevention of malnutrition, scalable food distribution programs may be cost effective to address the heightened risk of malnutrition following weather-related shocks.

  11. 75 FR 58285 - Short-Term, Small Amount Loans

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-24

    ... Part 701 RIN 3133-AD71 Short-Term, Small Amount Loans Agency: National Credit Union Administration... unions (FCUs) to offer short-term, small amount loans (STS loans) as a viable alternative to predatory... permitted under the general lending rule, but imposes limitations on the permissible term, amount, and...

  12. 77 FR 21057 - Short-Term Investment Funds

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-09

    ... limiting the STIF's investments to shorter-term assets and generally requiring those assets to be held to... to invest the STIF's fiduciary assets in a diversified portfolio of short- term, high quality debt... Office of the Comptroller of the Currency 12 CFR Part 9 RIN 1557-AD37 Short-Term Investment Funds...

  13. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  14. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  15. A Short-Term Delivery Model for Counseling Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knott, J. Eugene

    The author discusses a short-term delivery model which forms the essential mode of operation at the counseling center at Rhode Island College. He prefaces his discription of the model by indicating that not all clients, problems or counselors are amenable to this short-term approach. There are three steps or elements in the delivery model: 1)…

  16. Short-Term Training--Where the Action Is!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, George R.

    In order to address major permanent changes in the economic structure and workforce of its community, Chemeketa Community College (CCC) in Oregon has made a commitment to initiate as many short-term training programs as its resources permit. Short-term training, which takes less time than regular one-year certificate or two-year associate degree…

  17. Double Dissociations in Visual and Spatial Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klauer, Karl Christoph; Zhao, Zengmei

    2004-01-01

    A visual short-term memory task was more strongly disrupted by visual than spatial interference, and a spatial memory task was simultaneously more strongly disrupted by spatial than visual interference. This double dissociation supports a fractionation of visuospatial short-term memory into separate visual and spatial components. In 6 experiments,…

  18. Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.

    PubMed

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M

    2016-11-01

    The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.

  19. Developing a Global, Short-Term Fire Weather Forecasting Tool Using NWP Input Meteorology and Satellite Fire Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, D. A.; Hyer, E. J.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-01

    In order to meet the emerging need for better estimates of biomass burning emissions in air quality and climate models, a statistical model is developed to characterize the effect of a given set of meteorological conditions on the following day's fire activity, including ignition and spread potential. Preliminary tests are conducted within several spatial domains of the North American boreal forest by investigating a wide range of meteorological information, including operational fire weather forecasting indices, such as the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). However, rather than using local noon surface station data, the six components of the CFFDRS are modified to use inputs from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS). The Initial Spread Index (ISI) and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) are shown to be the most relevant components of the CFFDRS for short-term changes in fire activity. However, both components are found to be highly sensitive to variations in relative humidity and wind speed input data. Several variables related to fire ignition from dry lighting, such as instability and the synoptic pattern, are also incorporated. Cases of fire ignition, growth, decay, and extinction are stratified using satellite fire observations from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and compared to the available suite of meteorological information. These comparisons reveal that combinations of meteorological variables, such as the FWI, ISI, and additional indices developed for this study, produce the greatest separability between major fire growth and decay cases, which are defined by the observed change in fire counts and fire radiative power. This information is used to derive statistical relationships affecting the short-term changes in fire activity and subsequently applied to other

  20. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  1. Diverse thalamocortical short-term plasticity elicited by ongoing stimulation.

    PubMed

    Díaz-Quesada, Marta; Martini, Francisco J; Ferrati, Giovanni; Bureau, Ingrid; Maravall, Miguel

    2014-01-08

    To produce sensation, neuronal pathways must transmit and process stimulus patterns that unfold over time. This behavior is determined by short-term synaptic plasticity (STP), which shapes the temporal filtering properties of synapses in a pathway. We explored STP variability across thalamocortical (TC) synapses, measuring whole-cell responses to stimulation of TC fibers in layer 4 neurons of mouse barrel cortex in vitro. As expected, STP during stimulation from rest was dominated by depression. However, STP during ongoing stimulation was strikingly diverse across TC connections. Diversity took the form of variable tuning to the latest interstimulus interval: some connections responded weakly to shorter intervals, while other connections were facilitated. These behaviors did not cluster into categories but formed a continuum. Diverse tuning did not require disynaptic inhibition. Hence, monosynaptic excitatory lemniscal TC connections onto layer 4 do not behave uniformly during ongoing stimulation. Each connection responds differentially to particular stimulation intervals, enriching the ability of the pathway to convey complex, temporally fluctuating information.

  2. Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Speech-Disordered Children: Implications for Articulatory Coding in Short-Term Memory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raine, Adrian; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Children with speech disorders had lower short-term memory capacity and smaller word length effect than control children. Children with speech disorders also had reduced speech-motor activity during rehearsal. Results suggest that speech rate may be a causal determinant of verbal short-term memory capacity. (BC)

  3. Climate Variability on Venus and Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, F. W.

    2006-08-01

    Venus and Titan are both slowly-rotating, approximately Earth-sized bodies with cloudy, dynamic atmospheres. Each has a complex climate system, even less well understood than the terrestrial equivalent, and the processes that appear to maintain the climate near the surface on both bodies have interesting similarities and differences with each other and with the Earth. By considering these factors and their possible evolution with the aid of elementary climate models, some interesting, albeit tentative, conclusions can be reached concerning the stability of climate on Earth-like planets, and the likely nature of past and future climate change.

  4. The paleoclimate record of long-term climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Webb, R.S.; Bartlein, P.J.; Overpeck, J.T. Univ. of Oregon, Eugene )

    1993-06-01

    Climate variability occurs on time scales ranging from decades or shorter to millions of years. An important step in determining the effects of trace-gas-induced warming on climate variability and ecosystems is characterizing past natural variability and change. Throughout the Quaternary long-term climate variability has been dominated by Milankovitch forcing of glacial/interglacial cycles. Superimposed on this millennia-scale orbitally forced variability have been more rapid climate events (e.g. Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, Sahelian droughts). Although highly relevant to understanding possible responses of ecosystems to future climate change, most decade to century scale climate variability remains poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms and responses can be obtained from tree rings, ice cores, corals, marine, lake and fluvial sediments, pollen, and macrofossils. These paleoclimate records reveal that the range of natural climate variability is much larger than indicated by the instrumental record of the past 150 years. Global networks of well-dated, high-resolution paleocrunate records for key intervals of the past are currently being assembled. These networks should provide the baseline of natural variability required to understand climate-ecosystem dynamics and to identify anthropogenic-induced change.

  5. LAMPPOST: A Mnemonic Device for Teaching Climate Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fahrer, Chuck; Harris, Dan

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces the word "LAMPPOST" as a mnemonic device to aid in the instruction of climate variables. It provides instructors with a framework for discussing climate patterns that is based on eight variables: latitude, altitude, maritime influence and continentality, pressure systems, prevailing winds, ocean currents, storms, and…

  6. Analog VLSI Circuits for Short-Term Dynamic Synapses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shih-Chii

    2003-12-01

    Short-term dynamical synapses increase the computational power of neuronal networks. These synapses act as additional filters to the inputs of a neuron before the subsequent integration of these signals at its cell body. In this work, we describe a model of depressing and facilitating synapses derived from a hardware circuit implementation. This model is equivalent to theoretical models of short-term synaptic dynamics in network simulations. These circuits have been added to a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. A cortical model of direction-selectivity that uses short-term dynamic synapses has been implemented with this network.

  7. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.

  8. Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Cane, Mark A.

    2014-02-20

    This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.

  9. Climate Variability and Change and Their Potential Health Effects in Small Island States: Information for Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Lewis, Nancy D.; Corvalan, Carlos

    2006-01-01

    Small island states are likely the countries most vulnerable to climate variability and long-term climate change. Climate models suggest that small island states will experience warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall, soil moisture budgets, prevailing winds (speed and direction), and patterns of wave action. El Niño events likely will strengthen short-term and interannual climate variations. In addition, global mean sea level is projected to increase by 0.09–0.88 m by 2100, with variable effects on regional and local sea level. To better understand the potential human health consequences of these projected changes, a series of workshops and a conference organized by the World Health Organization, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, addressed the following issues: the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases in small island states, the potential future health impacts of climate variability and change, the interventions currently used to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive diseases, additional interventions that are needed to adapt to current and future health impacts, and the health implications of climate variability and change in other sectors. Information on these issues is synthesized and key recommendations are identified for improving the capacity of the health sector to anticipate and prepare for climate variability and change in small island states. PMID:17185291

  10. Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

  11. Recent frequency component changes in interannual climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray C.; McMahon, Thomas A.

    2006-08-01

    The potential impact of climate change on the variability structure of climate has been investigated predominately through changes to extreme event frequency or the shape of the daily frequency distribution. Recent change to interannual climate variability has received less attention. Here we report that the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation has marginally decreased since 1970. However, within this marginal decrease the inter-decadal component of interannual variability has decreased for both temperature and precipitation. The temperature results are consistent across urban and rural stations indicating that they are not due to any urbanisation effect.

  12. Short-term landfill methane emissions dependency on wind.

    PubMed

    Delkash, Madjid; Zhou, Bowen; Han, Byunghyun; Chow, Fotini K; Rella, Chris W; Imhoff, Paul T

    2016-09-01

    Short-term (2-10h) variations of whole-landfill methane emissions have been observed in recent field studies using the tracer dilution method for emissions measurement. To investigate the cause of these variations, the tracer dilution method is applied using 1-min emissions measurements at Sandtown Landfill (Delaware, USA) for a 2-h measurement period. An atmospheric dispersion model is developed for this field test site, which is the first application of such modeling to evaluate atmospheric effects on gas plume transport from landfills. The model is used to examine three possible causes of observed temporal emissions variability: temporal variability of surface wind speed affecting whole landfill emissions, spatial variability of emissions due to local wind speed variations, and misaligned tracer gas release and methane emissions locations. At this site, atmospheric modeling indicates that variation in tracer dilution method emissions measurements may be caused by whole-landfill emissions variation with wind speed. Field data collected over the time period of the atmospheric model simulations corroborate this result: methane emissions are correlated with wind speed on the landfill surface with R(2)=0.51 for data 2.5m above ground, or R(2)=0.55 using data 85m above ground, with emissions increasing by up to a factor of 2 for an approximately 30% increase in wind speed. Although the atmospheric modeling and field test are conducted at a single landfill, the results suggest that wind-induced emissions may affect tracer dilution method emissions measurements at other landfills.

  13. Short term fluctuations of wind and solar power systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anvari, M.; Lohmann, G.; Wächter, M.; Milan, P.; Lorenz, E.; Heinemann, D.; Rahimi Tabar, M. Reza; Peinke, Joachim

    2016-06-01

    Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid. By analysing significant amounts of data from several regions around the world with resolutions of seconds to minutes, we provide strong evidence that renewable wind and solar sources exhibit multiple types of variability and nonlinearity in the time scale of seconds and characterise their stochastic properties. In contrast to previous findings, we show that only the jumpy characteristic of renewable sources decreases when increasing the spatial size over which the renewable energies are harvested. Otherwise, the strong non-Gaussian, intermittent behaviour in the cumulative power of the total field survives even for a country-wide distribution of the systems. The strong fluctuating behaviour of renewable wind and solar sources can be well characterised by Kolmogorov-like power spectra and q-exponential probability density functions. Using the estimated potential shape of power time series, we quantify the jumpy or diffusive dynamic of the power. Finally we propose a time delayed feedback technique as a control algorithm to suppress the observed short term non-Gaussian statistics in spatially strong correlated and intermittent renewable sources.

  14. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

  15. Short term effects of airborne pollen concentrations on asthma epidemic

    PubMed Central

    Tobias, A; Galan, I; Banegas, J; Aranguez, E

    2003-01-01

    Methods: This study, based on time series analysis adjusting for meteorological factors and air pollution variables, assessed the short term effects of different types of allergenic pollen on asthma hospital emergencies in the metropolitan area of Madrid (Spain) for the period 1995–8. Results: Statistically significant associations were found for Poaceae pollen (lag of 3 days) and Plantago pollen (lag of 2 days), representing an increase in the range between the 99th and 95th percentiles of 17.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2 to 32.8) and 15.9% (95% CI 6.5 to 26.2) for Poaceae and Plantago, respectively. A positive association was also observed for Urticaceae (lag of 1 day) with an 8.4% increase (95% CI 2.8 to 14.4). Conclusions: There is an association between pollen levels and asthma related emergencies, independent of the effect of air pollutants. The marked relationship observed for Poaceae and Plantago pollens suggests their implication in the epidemic distribution of asthma during the period coinciding with their abrupt release into the environment. PMID:12885991

  16. Leukocyte subsets and neutrophil function after short-term spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stowe, R. P.; Sams, C. F.; Mehta, S. K.; Kaur, I.; Jones, M. L.; Feeback, D. L.; Pierson, D. L.

    1999-01-01

    Changes in leukocyte subpopulations and function after spaceflight have been observed but the mechanisms underlying these changes are not well defined. This study investigated the effects of short-term spaceflight (8-15 days) on circulating leukocyte subsets, stress hormones, immunoglobulin levels, and neutrophil function. At landing, a 1.5-fold increase in neutrophils was observed compared with preflight values; lymphocytes were slightly decreased, whereas the results were variable for monocytes. No significant changes were observed in plasma levels of immunoglobulins, cortisol, or adrenocorticotropic hormone. In contrast, urinary epinephrine, norepinephrine, and cortisol were significantly elevated at landing. Band neutrophils were observed in 9 of 16 astronauts. Neutrophil chemotactic assays showed a 10-fold decrease in the optimal dose response after landing. Neutrophil adhesion to endothelial cells was increased both before and after spaceflight. At landing, the expression of MAC-1 was significantly decreased while L-selectin was significantly increased. These functional alterations may be of clinical significance on long-duration space missions.

  17. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    PubMed

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory.

  18. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Program Provisions § 62.21 Short-term scholars. (a) Introduction. These regulations govern scholars coming... programs, confer on common problems and projects, and promote professional relationships and communications... lecturing, observing, consulting, training, or demonstrating special skills at research...

  19. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  20. Encephalopathy and vestibulopathy following short-term hydrocarbon exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Hodgson, M.J.; Furman, J.; Ryan, C.; Durrant, J.; Kern, E.

    1989-01-01

    Dizziness, headaches, and weakness occurred among three men after short-term hydrocarbon exposure during improper welding procedures in a closed container. Symptoms were related to objective evidence of vestibular and cognitive dysfunction. Symptoms and abnormal test results persisted for 6 to 18 months. Simulation of the accident failed to demonstrate likely exposures except aliphatic hydrocarbons, well within the permissible exposure levels. Short-term exposures to neurotoxins may lead to long-term central nervous system abnormalities.

  1. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    PubMed Central

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2014-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and interference in short-term memory in a task that rules out the use of rehearsal processes. In this article the authors present a series of studies using a novel paradigm to address this problem directly, by interrogating the operation of decay and interference in short-term memory without rehearsal confounds. The results of these studies indicate that short-term memories are subject to very small decay effects with the mere passage of time but that interference plays a much larger role in their degradation. The authors discuss the implications of these results for existing models of memory decay and interference. PMID:19271849

  2. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  3. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  4. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  5. New insights on short-term solar irradiance forecast for space weather applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. A.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Balmaceda, L. A.; Dal Lago, A.; Da Silva, L. A.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    2013-12-01

    The conditions of the thermosphere, the ionosphere, the neutral atmosphere, and the oceans on time scales from days to millennia are highly dependent on the solar electromagnetic output, the solar irradiance. The development of physics-based solar irradiance models during the last decade improved significantly our understanding of the solar forcing on Earth's climate. These models are based on the assumption that most of the solar irradiance variability is related to the magnetic field structure of the Sun. Recently, these models were extended to allow short-term forecast (1 to 15 days) of the total and spectral solar irradiance. The extension of the irradiance models is based on solar surface magnetic flux models and/or artificial neural network models. Here, we discuss in details the irradiance forecast models based on observations of the solar surface magnetic field realized by the HMI instrument on board of SDO spacecraft. We constrained and validated the models by comparing the output of the models and observations of the solar irradiance made by instruments onboard The SORCE spacecraft. This study received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013, FP7-SPACE-2010-1) under the grant agreement nrs. 218816 (SOTERIA project, www.soteria-space.eu) and 261948 (ATMOP,www.atmop.eu), and by the CNPq/Brazil under the grant number 312488/2012-2. We also gratefully thank the instrument teams for making their data available.

  6. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  7. Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, David A.; Helfrich, J. V. K.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

    1998-01-01

    The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Nino episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Nino years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation in the Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.

  8. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  9. The Dynamics of Ocean Climate Variability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Warren B.; Haney, Robert L.

    1978-01-01

    Halfway through a five-year experimental program designed to test classical concepts of ocean/atmosphere climate dynamics, researchers are finding that the theories may conflict with new data on disturbances in the ocean thermal structure. (Author BB)

  10. Proximal Risk Factors for Short-Term Community Violence Among Adults With Mental Illnesses

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Kiersten L.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Grimm, Kevin J.; Tueller, Stephen J.; Swartz, Marvin S.; Van Dorn, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study examined the role of static indicators and proximal, clinically relevant indicators in the prediction of short-term community violence in a large, heterogeneous sample of adults with mental illnesses. Methods Data were pooled from five studies of adults with mental illnesses (N=4,484). Follow-up data were available for 2,579 participants. A hierarchical linear regression assessed the incremental validity of a series of variable clusters in the prediction of violence risk at six months: static characteristics (age, sex, race-ethnicity, and primary diagnosis), substance use (alcohol use and drug use at baseline), clinical functioning (psychiatric symptoms at baseline and recent hospitalization), recent violence, and recent victimization. Results Results demonstrated improved prediction with each step of the model, indicating that proximal indicators contributed to the prediction of short-term community violence above and beyond static characteristics. When all variables were entered, current alcohol use, recent violence, and recent victimization were positive predictors of subsequent violence, even after the analysis controlled for participant characteristics. Conclusions This study provides empirical evidence for three proximal, clinically relevant indicators in the assessment and management of short-term violence risk among adults with mental illnesses: current alcohol use, recent violence, and recent victimization. Consideration of these indicators in clinical practice may assist in the identification of adults with mental illnesses who are at heightened risk of short-term community violence. PMID:26927580

  11. Evaluation of Northern Hemisphere natural climate variability in multiple temperature reconstructions and global climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. L.; Sloan, L. C.; Revenaugh, J.; Duffy, P. B.

    2003-06-01

    The detection of anthropogenic climate change in observations and the validation of climate models both rely on understanding natural climate variability. To evaluate internal climate variability, we apply spectral analysis to time series of surface air temperature (SAT) from nine coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations, three recent global paleotemperature reconstructions, and Northern Hemisphere (NH) instrumental records. Our comparison is focused on the NH due to the greater spatial and temporal coverage and validation of the available NH temperature reconstructions. The paleotemperature reconstructions capture the general magnitude of NH climate variability, but not the precise variance and specific spatial, temporal, or periodic signals demonstrated in the instrumental record. The models achieved varying degrees of success for each measure of variability analyzed, with none of the models consistently capturing the appropriate variability. In general, the models performed best in the analysis of combined mean annual land and marine variability.

  12. Impact of Holocene climate variability on Arctic vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajewski, K.

    2015-10-01

    This paper summarizes current knowledge about the postglacial history of the vegetation of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Greenland. Available pollen data were used to understand the initial migration of taxa across the Arctic, how the plant biodiversity responded to Holocene climate variability, and how past climate variability affected primary production of the vegetation. Current evidence suggests that most of the flora arrived in the area during the Holocene from Europe or refugia south or west of the region immediately after local deglaciation, indicating rapid dispersal of propagules to the region from distant sources. There is some evidence of shrub species arriving later in Greenland, but it is not clear if this is dispersal limited or a response to past climates. Subsequent climate variability had little effect on biodiversity across the CAA, with some evidence of local extinctions in areas of Greenland in the late Holocene. The most significant impact of climate changes is on vegetation density and/or plant production.

  13. Language repetition and short-term memory: an integrative framework

    PubMed Central

    Majerus, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the non-word-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury. PMID:23874280

  14. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections. Second quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the first quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  15. Impaired short-term memory for pitch in congenital amusia.

    PubMed

    Tillmann, Barbara; Lévêque, Yohana; Fornoni, Lesly; Albouy, Philippe; Caclin, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. The hypothesis is that the musical deficits arise from altered pitch processing, with impairments in pitch discrimination (i.e., pitch change detection, pitch direction discrimination and identification) and short-term memory. The present review article focuses on the deficit of short-term memory for pitch. Overall, the data discussed here suggest impairments at each level of processing in short-term memory tasks; starting with the encoding of the pitch information and the creation of the adequate memory trace, the retention of the pitch traces over time as well as the recollection and comparison of the stored information with newly incoming information. These impairments have been related to altered brain responses in a distributed fronto-temporal network, associated with decreased connectivity between these structures, as well as in abnormalities in the connectivity between the two auditory cortices. In contrast, amusic participants׳ short-term memory abilities for verbal material are preserved. These findings show that short-term memory deficits in congenital amusia are specific to pitch, suggesting a pitch-memory system that is, at least partly, separated from verbal memory. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory.

  16. Effect of flux adjustments on temperature variability in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    CMIP investigators; Duffy, P. B.; Bell, J.; Covey, C.; Sloan, L.

    2000-03-01

    It has been suggested that “flux adjustments” in climate models suppress simulated temperature variability. If true, this might invalidate the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases since 1860 are anthropogenic, since this conclusion is based in part on estimates of natural temperature variability derived from flux-adjusted models. We assess variability of surface air temperatures in 17 simulations of internal temperature variability submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By comparing variability in flux-adjusted vs. non-flux adjusted simulations, we find no evidence that flux adjustments suppress temperature variability in climate models; other, largely unknown, factors are much more important in determining simulated temperature variability. Therefore the conclusion that at least some of observed temperature increases are anthropogenic cannot be questioned on the grounds that it is based in part on results of flux-adjusted models. Also, reducing or eliminating flux adjustments would probably do little to improve simulations of temperature variability.

  17. The Intensification of Global and Regional Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent evidence from the IPCC and National Climate Assessment reports indicate that extreme climate events are increasing in many regions of the world. Interestingly, the nature and causes of the changes in extremes may be expressed differently for the global and regional scales, and also amongst climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). For instance, over the last several decades the temperature probability density function on the global scale exhibits a mean shift to the warmer side, as opposed to a change in it's variability. Conversely, the interannual variability of precipitation is intensifying on the regional scale, especially over the U.S. during spring. Although the statistical characteristics of the temperature and precipitation changes may have a varied expression they both contribute to the potential for increases in extreme events. The causes and physical mechanisms for the intensification of mean global temperature and regional precipitation variability are explored using observationally constrained datasets and non-traditional climate model approaches.

  18. Land Use and Climate Variability Amplify Contaminant Pulses

    EPA Science Inventory

    Converting land to human-dominated uses has increased contaminant loads in streams and rivers and vastly transformed hydrological cycles (Vitousek et al. 1997). More recently, climate change has further altered hydrologic cycles and variability of precipitation (IPCC 2007). Toge...

  19. Impact of climate variability on vector-borne disease transmission

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We will discuss the impact of climate variability on vector borne diseases and demonstrate that global climate teleconnections can be used to anticipate and forecast, in the case of Rift Valley fever, epidemics and epizootics. In this context we will examine significant worldwide weather anomalies t...

  20. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop

    SciTech Connect

    Purcell, Amanda

    2016-07-25

    A number of studies indicate an apparent slowdown in the overall rise in global average surface temperature between roughly 1998 and 2014. Most models did not predict such a slowdown--a fact that stimulated a lot of new research on variability of Earth's climate system. At a September 2015 workshop, leading scientists gathered to discuss current understanding of climate variability on decadal timescales (10 to 30 years) and whether and how prediction of it might be improved. Many researchers have focused their attention on the climate system itself, which is known to vary across seasons, decades, and other timescales. Several natural variables produce "ups and downs" in the climate system, which are superimposed on the long-term warming trend due to human influence. Understanding decadal climate variability is important not only for assessing global climate change but also for improving decision making related to infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, energy, and other realms. Like the well-studied El Nino and La Nina interannual variations, decadal climate variability is associated with specific regional patterns of temperature and precipitation, such as heat waves, cold spells, and droughts. Several participants shared research that assesses decadal predictive capability of current models.

  1. Inter-variable relations in regional climate model outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcke, R.; Chandler, R. E.; Prein, A. F.

    2015-12-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) intent to provide physically consistent climate data to the climate change impact research community. However, the effects of parametrisations of unresolved sub-grid processes and systematic biases in the model output requires not only a post-processing in form of bias adjustment but also an analysis of inter-variable relations. Many impact models require several climate variables as input data, which makes it necessary to check if the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by RCMs. A common practice is to bias adjust RCM output variables to improve their individual distribution and mean climate characteristics. This can be done by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping. However, applying statistical bias adjustment procedures on individual variables may alter the inter-variable relationships given by the climate model and hence distort the physical consistency.In our study we examined the inter-variable relations of RCM output variables by using estimates of conditional probability density functions for pairs of variables. Conditional densities obtained from multiple European RCMs were compared with those obtained from observations. We quantified the extent to which these conditional density estimates are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. Additionally, the influence of the model physics on the representation of inter-variable relations is analysed for a 24 member perturbed physics ensemble of WRF simulations in the U.S.. Here, multiple observational data sets were used to address the influence of observational uncertainties on the analysis. Finally, the results obtained from the European and U.S. modelling initiatives are compared to provide a common basis on the representation of inter-variable relations in RCM outputs.

  2. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  3. CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CHANGE, AND CONSEQUENCES IN ESTUARIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change operates at global, hemispheric, and regional scales, sometimes involving rapid shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Changes of global scope occurred in the transition into the Little Ice Age (1350-1880) and subsequent warming during the 20th century. In th...

  4. Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

  5. Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency

    PubMed Central

    Alter, Adam L.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

    2006-01-01

    Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of $1,000 yielded a profit of $112 more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives. PMID:16754871

  6. Short-term synaptic depression and stochastic vesicle dynamics reduce and shape neuronal correlations.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Robert; Rubin, Jonathan E; Doiron, Brent

    2013-01-01

    Correlated neuronal activity is an important feature in many neural codes, a neural correlate of a variety of cognitive states, as well as a signature of several disease states in the nervous system. The cellular and circuit mechanics of neural correlations is a vibrant area of research. Synapses throughout the cortex exhibit a form of short-term depression where increased presynaptic firing rates deplete neurotransmitter vesicles, which transiently reduces synaptic efficacy. The release and recovery of these vesicles are inherently stochastic, and this stochasticity introduces variability into the conductance elicited by depressing synapses. The impact of spiking and subthreshold membrane dynamics on the transfer of neuronal correlations has been studied intensively, but an investigation of the impact of short-term synaptic depression and stochastic vesicle dynamics on correlation transfer is lacking. We find that short-term synaptic depression and stochastic vesicle dynamics can substantially reduce correlations, shape the timescale over which these correlations occur, and alter the dependence of spiking correlations on firing rate. Our results show that short-term depression and stochastic vesicle dynamics need to be taken into account when modeling correlations in neuronal populations.

  7. Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feynman, Joan

    If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth's atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth's mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth's climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.

  8. Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folkert Boersma, K.; Muller, Jan-Peter

    2015-04-01

    Satellite data are of central interest to the QA4ECV project. Satellites have revolutionized the Earth's observation system of climate change and air quality over the past three decades, providing continuous data for the entire Earth. However, many users of these data are lost in the fog as to the quality of these satellite data. Because of this, the European Union expressed in its 2013 FP7 Space Research Call a need for reliable, traceable, and understandable quality information on satellite data records that could serve as a blueprint contribution to a future Copernicus Climate Change Service. The potential of satellite data to benefit climate change and air quality services is too great to be ignored. QA4ECV therefore bridges the gap between end-users of satellite data and the satellite data products. We are developing an internationally acceptable Quality Assurance (QA) framework that provides understandable and traceable quality information for satellite data used in climate and air quality services. Such a framework should deliver the historically linked long-term data sets that users need, in a format that they can readily use. QA4ECV has approached more than 150 users and suppliers of satellite data to collect their needs and expectations. The project will use their response as a guideline for developing user-friendly tools to obtain information on the completeness, accuracy, and fitness-for-purpose of the satellite datasets. QA4ECV collaborates with 4 joint FP7 Space projects in reaching out to scientists, policy makers, and other end-users of satellite data to improve understanding of the special challenges -and also opportunities- of working with satellite data for climate and air quality purposes. As a demonstration of its capacity, QA4ECV will generate multi-decadal climate data records for 3 atmospheric ECV precursors (nitrogen dioxide, formaldehyde, and carbon monoxide) and 3 land ECVs (albedo, leaf area index and absorbed photosynthetically active

  9. Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.

    2014-09-01

    A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.

  10. Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  11. Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

    DOE PAGES

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979more » having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

  12. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

    PubMed

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  13. Climate driven variability and detectability of temporal trends in low flow indicators for Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Julia; Murphy, Conor; Harrigan, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    Observational data from hydrological monitoring programs plays an important role in informing decision makers of changes in key hydrological variables. To analyse how changes in climate influence stream flow, undisturbed river basins with near-natural conditions limited from human influences are needed. This study analyses low flow indicators derived from observations from the Irish Reference Network. Within the trend analysis approach the influence of individual years or sub-periods on the detected trend are analysed using sequential trend tests on all possible periods (of at least 10 years in length) by varying the start and end dates of records for various indicators. Results from this study highlight that the current standard approach using fixed periods to determine long term trends is not appropriate as statistical significance and direction of trends from short term records do not persist continuously over entire record and can be heavily influenced by extremes within the record. The importance of longer records in contextualising short term trends derived from fixed-periods influenced by natural annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal variability is highlighted. Due to the low signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio, the apparent trends derived from the low flow indicators cannot be used as confident guides to inform future water resources planning and decision making on climate change. Infact, some derived trends contradict expected climate change impacts and even small changes in study design can change the outcomes to a high degree. Therefore it is important not only to evaluate the magnitude of trends derived from monitoring data but also when a trend of a certain magnitude in a given indicator will be detectable to inform decision making or what changes might be required to detect trends for a certain significance level. In this study, the influence of observed variance in the monitoring records on the expected detection times for trends with a

  14. Climate variability and change impacts on coastal environmental variables in British Columbia Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abeysirigunawardena, Dilumie Saumedaka

    The research presented in this dissertation attempted to determine whether climate variability is critical to sea level changes in coastal BC. To that end, a number of statistical models were proposed to clarify the relationships between five climate variability indices representing large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes and sea levels, storm surges, extreme winds and storm track variability in coastal BC. The research findings demonstrate that decadal to inter decadal climatic variability is fundamental to explaining the changing frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric and oceanic environmental variables in coastal BC. The trends revealed by these analyses suggest that coastal flooding risks are certain to increase in this region during the next few decades, especially if the global sea-levels continue to rise as predicted. The out come of this study emphasis the need to look beyond climatic means when completing climate impact assessments, by clearly showing that climate extremes are currently causing the majority of weather-related damage along coastal BC. The findings highlight the need to derive knowledge on climate variability and change effects relevant at regional to local scales to enable useful adaptation strategies. The major findings of this research resulted in five independent manuscripts: (i) Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern BC. The Manuscript (MC) is published in the Journal of atmospheric and oceans (AO 46 (3), 277-296); (ii) Extreme sea-level recurrences in the south coast of BC with climate considerations. This MC is in review with the Asia Pacific Journal of Climate Change (APJCC); (iii) Extreme sea-surge responses to climate variability in coastal BC. This MC is currently in review in the Annals of the AAG (AN-2009-0098); (iv) Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of BC. This MC is published in the Journal of Atmosphere and Oceans (AO 47 (1), 41

  15. Short term synaptic depression imposes a frequency dependent filter on synaptic information transfer.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Robert; Rubin, Jonathan; Doiron, Brent

    2012-01-01

    Depletion of synaptic neurotransmitter vesicles induces a form of short term depression in synapses throughout the nervous system. This plasticity affects how synapses filter presynaptic spike trains. The filtering properties of short term depression are often studied using a deterministic synapse model that predicts the mean synaptic response to a presynaptic spike train, but ignores variability introduced by the probabilistic nature of vesicle release and stochasticity in synaptic recovery time. We show that this additional variability has important consequences for the synaptic filtering of presynaptic information. In particular, a synapse model with stochastic vesicle dynamics suppresses information encoded at lower frequencies more than information encoded at higher frequencies, while a model that ignores this stochasticity transfers information encoded at any frequency equally well. This distinction between the two models persists even when large numbers of synaptic contacts are considered. Our study provides strong evidence that the stochastic nature neurotransmitter vesicle dynamics must be considered when analyzing the information flow across a synapse.

  16. Short-term and long-term effects of reinforcers on choice

    PubMed Central

    Buckner, Randy L.; Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel

    1993-01-01

    The relation between molar and molecular aspects of time allocation was studied in pigeons on concurrent variable-time variable-time schedules of reinforcement. Fifteen-minute reinforcer-free periods were inserted in the middle of every third session. Generalized molar matching of time ratios to reinforcer ratios was observed during concurrent reinforcement. Contrary to melioration theory, preference was unchanged during the reinforcer-free periods as well as in extinction. In addition to this long-term effect of reinforcement, short-term effects were observed: Reinforcers increased the duration of the stays during which they were delivered but had little consistent effect either on the immediately following stay in the same schedule or on the immediately following stay in the alternative schedule. Thus, an orderly effect of reinforcer delivery on molecular aspects of time allocation was observed, but because of its short-term nature, this effect cannot account for the matching observed at the molar level. PMID:16812687

  17. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Methods Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. Results As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Conclusions Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation. PMID:24645871

  18. The Precategorical Nature of Visual Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinlan, Philip T.; Cohen, Dale J.

    2016-01-01

    We conducted a series of recognition experiments that assessed whether visual short-term memory (VSTM) is sensitive to shared category membership of to-be-remembered (tbr) images of common objects. In Experiment 1 some of the tbr items shared the same basic level category (e.g., hand axe): Such items were no better retained than others. In the…

  19. Short-Term Effects of Televised Aggression on Children's Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebert, Robert M.; Baron, Robert A.

    Recently collected data appear to warrant advancing some tentative conslusions concerning the short-term effects of violence in television on children: 1) children are exposed to a substantial amount of violent content on television, and they can remember and learn from such exposure; 2) correlational studies have disclosed a regular association…

  20. Validation of a Fish Short-term Reproduction Assay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Fish Short-term Reproduction Assay is an in vivo assay conducted with fathead minnows and is designed to detect changes in spawning, gross morphology, histopathology, and specific biochemical endpoints that reflect disturbances in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis...

  1. 47 CFR 74.24 - Short-term operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... in subparts D, E, F and H of this part, except wireless video assist devices, may be operated on a... notification provision shall not apply where an unanticipated need for immediate short-term mobile station... guidelines, which will be provided by Cornell University. In addition, the applicant shall indicate in...

  2. End Anchoring in Short-Term Order Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farrell, Simon; Lelievre, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Temporally grouping lists has systematic effects on immediate serial recall accuracy, order errors, and recall latencies, and is generally taken to reflect the use of multiple dimensions of ordering in short-term memory. It has been argued that these representations are fully relative, in that all sequence positions are anchored to both the start…

  3. Climax spent fuel dosimetry. Short term exposure, 8 March 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Quam, W.; DeVore, T.

    1984-06-01

    The second short-term exposure (performed 8 March 1983) in Hole CFH3 at the Climax Spent Fuel Test site is described. These short-term (1 hour long) exposures are intended to provide an independent measurement of the exposure rate at the wall and the 0.51-m and 0.66-m locations. Only CaF{sub 2} TLD`s were used in the second short-term exposure. Harshaw chips were cut to 0.32 x 0.18 x 0.09 cm size and aged by several exposure/readout/bakeout cycles until all odd chips were weeded out and the remaining chips exhibited stable sensitivities. Exposure at Climax was done by removing the existing long-term dosimetry strings and inserting identical strings using the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s in the stainless steel holders. The first short-term exposure produced absorbed doses as high as {similar_to}000 rads-LiF. The linearity corrections determined for the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s at these exposure levels were {similar_to}2%. The present post-exposure calibration method used calibration doses very close to those encountered in the field.

  4. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  5. Short-term storage of Atlantic sturgeon spermatozoa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is significant interest to restore the Atlantic sturgeon, a species of concern. Biologists are interested in both the short-term storage and cryopreservation of semen to maximize availability of viable spermatozoa whenever a rare ripe female is found and available for spawning. We conducted sh...

  6. The Role of Short-Term Memory in Operator Workload

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-04-01

    Baddeley, 1966; 1984), simultaneous digit processing ( Klapp and Philipoff, 1983), simultaneous, irrelevant articulation (articulatory suppression...Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 1, 153-161. Klapp , S.T. and Philipoff, A., 1983, Short term memory limits in performance. Turning the tide of

  7. Regularization in Short-Term Memory for Serial Order

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Botvinick, Matthew; Bylsma, Lauren M.

    2005-01-01

    Previous research has shown that short-term memory for serial order can be influenced by background knowledge concerning regularities of sequential structure. Specifically, it has been shown that recall is superior for sequences that fit well with familiar sequencing constraints. The authors report a corresponding effect pertaining to serial…

  8. Assurance of Learning in Short-Term, Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, Mary L.; Gullekson, Nicole L.; McCambridge, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Business students are increasingly seeking international experience in short-term, study abroad programs to enhance their intercultural knowledge, intercultural communication skills, and global perspectives to be more competitive in the global arena. Intuitively, universities initiating these programs and the students sojourning abroad believe in…

  9. Relation between Intelligence and Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Ronald L.; Sandberg, Tor

    1977-01-01

    Intelligence and short-term memory correlations in children were measured using probed serial recall of supraspan digit lists. Results showed the predictive power of intelligence to range from a maximum in the case of recall for recency items to practically zero in the case of primacy items. (Author/MV)

  10. Short-Term International Experiences and Teacher Language Awareness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harbon, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    This research study had as its focus the impact of a short-term international experience on teacher language awareness (TLA). In-country intensive immersion experiences were considered beneficial for language teacher professional development. This project examined the Australian teachers' perceptions of their teaching and home-stay experiences…

  11. Short-term storage options for fresh-market onions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sweet onions have proven to be an excellent spring specialty crop in southeastern Oklahoma. Growers are interested in fuel-efficient methods of short term storage (up to 6 months) to lengthen market windows and enhance returns. Onions were seeded in high tunnels in November of 2005, transplanted to...

  12. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, second quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The forecasts in this issue cover the second quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Changes to macroeconomic measures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis have been incorporated into the STIFS model used.

  13. Short-term energy outlook, Quarterly projections. Third quarter 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1993-08-04

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

  14. SHORT-TERM MEMORY IS INDEPENDENT OF BRAIN PROTEIN SYNTHESIS

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, Hasker P.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Jones, Oliver W.

    1980-09-01

    Male Swiss albino CD-1 mice given a single injection of a cerebral protein synthesis inhibitor, anisomycin (ANI) (1 mg/animal), 20 min prior to single trial passive avoidance training demonstrated impaired retention at tests given 3 hr, 6 hr, 1 day, and 7 days after training. Retention was not significantly different from saline controls when tests were given 0.5 or 1.5 hr after training. Prolonging inhibition of brain protein synthesis by giving either 1 or 2 additional injections of ANI 2 or 2 and 4 hr after training did not prolong short-term retention performance. The temporal development of impaired retention in ANI treated mice could not be accounted for by drug dosage, duration of protein synthesis inhibition, or nonspecific sickness at test. In contrast to the suggestion that protein synthesis inhibition prolongs short-term memory (Quinton, 1978), the results of this experiment indicate that short-term memory is not prolonged by antibiotic drugs that inhibit cerebral protein synthesis. All evidence seems consistent with the hypothesis that short-term memory is protein synthesis independent and that the establishment of long-term memory depends upon protein synthesis during or shortly after training. Evidence for a role of protein synthesis in memory maintenance is discussed.

  15. A DAPHNIA MAGNA SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL AND GROWTH TEST

    EPA Science Inventory

    With the change in acceptable test temperatures for invertebrate toxicity tests from <20oC to 25oC, it is now possible to use Daphnia magna for short-term chronic testing. When cultured at 25oC the dry weight of <24 hr old D. magna ranges from 7 to 15 g depending upon nutrition,...

  16. Selenium deficiency, reversible cardiomyopathy and short-term intravenous feeding.

    PubMed Central

    Levy, J. B.; Jones, H. W.; Gordon, A. C.

    1994-01-01

    We report the case of a patient with Crohn's disease receiving short-term postoperative parenteral nutrition supplemented with trace elements who nevertheless became selenium deficient with evidence of a cardiomyopathy. This was fully reversible with oral selenium supplementation. Current parenteral feeding regimes may not contain enough selenium for malnourished patients. PMID:8183763

  17. Exogenous Attention Influences Visual Short-Term Memory in Infants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross-Sheehy, Shannon; Oakes, Lisa M.; Luck, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    Two experiments examined the hypothesis that developing visual attentional mechanisms influence infants' Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) in the context of multiple items. Five- and 10-month-old infants (N = 76) received a change detection task in which arrays of three differently colored squares appeared and disappeared. On each trial one square…

  18. Short-Term Therapy: A Shift in Thinking.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fuhriman, Addie

    1992-01-01

    Responds to previous article by Steenbarger on science-practice integration in brief counseling and therapy. Considers three dimensions that emerge from the integrated analysis presented in Steenbarger's article: catalysis, involvement, and time. Discusses each of these three characteristics as they are related specifically to a short-term format.…

  19. Pigeon visual short-term memory directly compared to primates.

    PubMed

    Wright, Anthony A; Elmore, L Caitlin

    2016-02-01

    Three pigeons were trained to remember arrays of 2-6 colored squares and detect which of two squares had changed color to test their visual short-term memory. Procedures (e.g., stimuli, displays, viewing times, delays) were similar to those used to test monkeys and humans. Following extensive training, pigeons performed slightly better than similarly trained monkeys, but both animal species were considerably less accurate than humans with the same array sizes (2, 4 and 6 items). Pigeons and monkeys showed calculated memory capacities of one item or less, whereas humans showed a memory capacity of 2.5 items. Despite the differences in calculated memory capacities, the pigeons' memory results, like those from monkeys and humans, were all well characterized by an inverse power-law function fit to d' values for the five display sizes. This characterization provides a simple, straightforward summary of the fundamental processing of visual short-term memory (how visual short-term memory declines with memory load) that emphasizes species similarities based upon similar functional relationships. By closely matching pigeon testing parameters to those of monkeys and humans, these similar functional relationships suggest similar underlying processes of visual short-term memory in pigeons, monkeys and humans.

  20. Writing Better Goals and Short-Term Objectives or Benchmarks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lignugaris/Kraft, Benjamin; Marchand-Martella, Nancy; Martella, Ronald C.

    2001-01-01

    This article provides strategies for writing precise goals and short-term objectives or benchmarks as part of individualized education programs (IEPs). Guidelines and examples address: definitions, reasons for clarity and precision, individual parts of goals and objectives, inclusion of time factors in objectives and benchmarks, number of…

  1. Visual Short-Term Memory During Smooth Pursuit Eye Movements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerzel, Dirk; Ziegler, Nathalie E.

    2005-01-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) was probed while observers performed smooth pursuit eye movements. Smooth pursuit keeps a moving object stabilized in the fovea. VSTM capacity for position was reduced during smooth pursuit compared with a condition with eye fixation. There was no difference between a condition in which the items were approximately…

  2. 77 FR 61229 - Short-Term Investment Funds

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-09

    ... resilience of STIFs to credit and liquidity events while not unduly restricting a bank's ability to invest... liquidity or valuation stress. \\29\\ See Interagency Policy on Banks/Thrifts Providing Financial Support to... revises the requirements imposed on national banks pursuant to the OCC's short-term investment fund...

  3. CONTROLLED, SHORT-TERM DERMAL AND INHALATION EXPOSURE TO CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies were conducted to determine the uptake by humans of chloroform as a result of controlled short-term dermal and inhalation exposures. The approach used continuous real-time breath analysis to determine exhaled-breath profiles and evaluate chloroform kinetics in the huma...

  4. A SHORT-TERM TERMINAL COURSE FOR POTENTIAL DROPOUTS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    CANGEMI, JOSEPH P.

    STUDENTS IDENTIFIED AS "HARD-CORE" FUTURE DROPOUTS BY COUNSELORS, TEACHERS, AND SCHOOL ADMINISTRATORS SHOULD BE GROUPED TOGETHER FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, SHORT-TERM COURSE. SOME OF THE REALISTIC OBJECTIVES OF A TERMINAL PROGRAM FOR POTENTIAL DROPOUTS ARE--TO PREPARE STUDENTS WHO ARE DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL FOR IMMEDIATE EMPLOYMENT, TO…

  5. Interference-Based Forgetting in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewandowsky, Stephan; Geiger, Sonja M.; Oberauer, Klaus

    2008-01-01

    This article presents four experiments that tested predictions of SOB (Serial Order in a Box), an interference-based theory of short-term memory. Central to SOB is the concept of novelty-sensitive encoding, which holds that items are encoded to the extent that they differ from already-encoded information. On the additional assumption that…

  6. Emotive-reconstruction psychotherapy: a short-term cognitive approach.

    PubMed

    Morrison, J K; Cometa, M S

    1977-04-01

    Emotive-Reconstructive Therapy, a recently developed therapeutic modality deriving from cognitive theory, may be a promising short-term approach to psychopathology. Combining the use of imagery with selective hyperventilation, a therapist induces patients to reexperience past events, and subsequently to radically reconstrue themselves and significant others in a personally satisfying direction.

  7. Enhanced Visual Short-Term Memory for Angry Faces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Margaret C.; Wu, Chia-Yun; Linden, David E. J.; Raymond, Jane E.

    2009-01-01

    Although some views of face perception posit independent processing of face identity and expression, recent studies suggest interactive processing of these 2 domains. The authors examined expression-identity interactions in visual short-term memory (VSTM) by assessing recognition performance in a VSTM task in which face identity was relevant and…

  8. Short-Term Effects of Playing Computer Games on Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tahiroglu, Aysegul Yolga; Celik, Gonca Gul; Avci, Ayse; Seydaoglu, Gulsah; Uzel, Mehtap; Altunbas, Handan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term cognitive effects of computer games in children with different psychiatric disorders and normal controls. Method: One hundred one children are recruited for the study (aged between 9 and 12 years). All participants played a motor-racing game on the computer for 1 hour.…

  9. Short-term temporal variations of soil gas radon concentration and comparison of measurement techniques.

    PubMed

    Neznal, Martin; Matolín, Milan; Just, Günther; Turek, Karel

    2004-01-01

    Short-term temporal variations of soil gas radon concentration have been studied using different measuring techniques--instantaneous methods (grab sampling) using Lucas cells, continuous monitors, and integral nuclear track-etch detectors. A relatively low variability appeared during a 72-h follow-up. Different temporal changes were observed by using different methods. A substantial part of these changes was probably caused by fluctuations and errors connected with measuring methods themselves and did not reflect real variations of the measured parameter.

  10. Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

    2014-05-01

    As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

  11. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  12. Time series of Essential Climate Variables from Satellite Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werscheck, M.

    2010-09-01

    Climate change is a fact. We need to know how the climate system will develop in future and how this will affect workaday life. To do this we need climate models for prediction of the future on all time scales, and models to assess the impact of the prediction results to the various sectors of social and economic life. With this knowledge we can take measures to mitigate the causes and adapt to changes. Prerequisite for this is a careful and thorough monitoring of the climate systems. Satellite data are an increasing & valuable source of information to observe the climate system. For many decades now satellite data are available to derive information about our planet earth. EUMETSAT is the European Organisation in charge of the exploitation of satellite data for meteorology and (since the year 2000) climatology. Within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility (SAF) Network, comprising 8 initiatives to derive geophysical parameters from satellite, the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is especially dedicated to provide climate relevant information from satellite data. Many products as e.g. water vapour, radiation at surface and top of atmosphere, cloud properties are available, some of these for more then 2 decades. Just recently the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) to derive Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from satellite data, including e.g. cloud properties, aerosol, ozone, sea surface temperature etc.. The presentation will give an overview on some relevant European activities to derive Essential Climate Variables from satellite data and the links to Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) as well as the Sustained Co-ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE CM).

  13. Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watling, James I.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Bucklin, David N.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate envelope models are widely used to forecast potential effects of climate change on species distributions. A key issue in climate envelope modeling is the selection of predictor variables that most directly influence species. To determine whether model performance and spatial predictions were related to the selection of predictor variables, we compared models using bioclimate variables with models constructed from monthly climate data for twelve terrestrial vertebrate species in the southeastern USA using two different algorithms (random forests or generalized linear models), and two model selection techniques (using uncorrelated predictors or a subset of user-defined biologically relevant predictor variables). There were no differences in performance between models created with bioclimate or monthly variables, but one metric of model performance was significantly greater using the random forest algorithm compared with generalized linear models. Spatial predictions between maps using bioclimate and monthly variables were very consistent using the random forest algorithm with uncorrelated predictors, whereas we observed greater variability in predictions using generalized linear models.

  14. Deglacial climate variability in central Florida, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Brooks, G.R.; Cronin, T. M.; Edgar, T.; Larson, R.

    2007-01-01

    Pollen and ostracode evidence from lacustrine sediments underlying modern Tampa Bay, Florida, document frequent and abrupt climatic and hydrological events superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Radiocarbon chronology on well-preserved mollusk shells and pollen residue from core MD02-2579 documents continuous sedimentation in a variety of non-marine habitats in a karst-controlled basin from 20 ka to 11.5 ka. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), much drier and cooler-than-modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae and Carya, with rare Pinus (Pinus pollen increased to 20–40% during the warming of the initial deglaciation (∼ 17.2 ka), reaching near modern abundance (60–80%) during warmer, moister climates of the Bølling/Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka). Within the Bølling/Allerød, centennial-scale dry events corresponding to the Older Dryas and Intra-Allerød Cold Period indicate rapid vegetation response (

  15. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  16. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, D.B.; Peterson, D.L.; Hessl, A.E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  17. Spectral signatures of Earth's climate variability as observed from space and diagnosed from reanalyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brindley, Helen; Bantges, Richard; Russell, Jacqueline; Murray, Jonathan; Harries, John

    2015-04-01

    Measurements of the Earth's spectrally resolved outgoing longwave radiation have the intrinsic information content and link to the overall energy budget that implies that they are ideal candidates to monitor the climate and detect and attribute change. Theoretical studies have shown how distinct longwave spectral signals from different climate forcing and feedback mechanisms may be derived and appear to combine with a high degree of linearity. However, an open, important question which has not yet been fully addressed concerns the exact level of short-term variability seen in observed longwave spectra. We investigate this here by exploiting the emerging radiance record available from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on the Metop-A satellite. We use five years of IASI data to assess the level of interannual variability seen in all-sky spectra at different spatial scales. Maximum variability is seen at the smallest scales investigated (10° zonal means) at northern and southern high latitudes across the centre of the 15 μm CO2 band. As spatial scale increases, the overall magnitude of interannual variability reduces across the spectrum and the spectral shape of the variability changes. We show that the interannual variability manifested across the IASI spectra is less than 0.17 K in brightness temperature in the all-sky global annual mean, collapsing to a value of less than 0.05 K in the atmospheric window, a spectral region whose variability is dominated by fluctuations in surface and cloud properties. Spectrally integrating the IASI measurements to create pseudo broadband and window channels indicates a variation about the mean that is higher for the broadband than the window channel at the global and quasi-global scale and over the Southern Hemisphere. These findings are in agreement with observations from CERES Terra over the same period and imply that at the largest spatial scales, over the period considered here, fluctuations in mid

  18. The 19th century discussion of climate variability and climate change: Analogies for the present debate?

    SciTech Connect

    Stehr, N.; Storch, H. von; Fluegel, M.

    1995-12-01

    Toward the end of the nineteenth and at the beginning of twentieth century significant discussions occurred among geographers, meteorologists and climatologists concerned with the notion of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, for instance, due to deforestation and reforestation. The authors identify two protagonists of this debate, Eduard Brueckner and Julius Hann, who both accept the notion of climate variability on the decadal scale, but respond in very different ways to the discovery of climate change. Brueckner assessed the impact of climate variability on society (e.g., on health, the balance of trade, emigration to the US), and tried to bring these to the attention of the public, whereas Hann limited himself to the immediate natural scientific problem of monitoring and documenting climate variability. The authors suggest that these discussions and the formation of national governmental and parliamentary committees almost 100 hundred years ago, are not merely of historical interest. In view of present discussions of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, and the need for adequate socio-economic response strategies, past and now neglected arguments may prove important for methodological and theoretical as well as for practical reasons. The past discussions represent a significant social and intellectual analogy for the present situation. 51 refs., 2 figs.

  19. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  20. Evaporative sodium salt crust development and its wind tunnel derived transport dynamics under variable climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nield, Joanna M.; McKenna Neuman, Cheryl; O'Brien, Patrick; Bryant, Robert G.; Wiggs, Giles F. S.

    2016-12-01

    Playas (or ephemeral lakes) can be significant sources of dust, but they are typically covered by salt crusts of variable mineralogy and these introduce uncertainty into dust emission predictions. Despite the importance of crust mineralogy to emission potential, little is known about (i) the effect of short-term changes in temperature and relative humidity on the erodibility of these crusts, and (ii) the influence of crust degradation and mineralogy on wind speed threshold for dust emission. Our understanding of systems where emission is not driven by impacts from saltators is particularly poor. This paper describes a wind tunnel study in which dust emission in the absence of saltating particles was measured for a suite of climatic conditions and salt crust types commonly found on Sua Pan, Botswana. The crusts were found to be non-emissive under climate conditions characteristic of dawn and early morning, as compared to hot and dry daytime conditions when the wind speed threshold for dust emission appears to be highly variable, depending upon salt crust physicochemistry. Significantly, sodium sulphate rich crusts were found to be more emissive than crusts formed from sodium chloride, while degraded versions of both crusts had a lower emission threshold than fresh, continuous crusts. The results from this study are in agreement with in-situ field measurements and confirm that dust emission from salt crusted surfaces can occur without saltation, although the vertical fluxes are orders of magnitude lower (∼10 μg/m/s) than for aeolian systems where entrainment is driven by particle impact.

  1. In Their Own Words: Assessing Global Citizenship in a Short-Term Study-Abroad Program in Bangladesh

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gambino, Giacomo; Hashim, S. Mohsin

    2016-01-01

    The article examines whether short-term study-abroad (STSA) experiences can cultivate the cultural understandings and ethical commitments entailed by a cosmopolitan civic education. We examine students' critical reflections on their participation in a two-week study-abroad program titled "Climate Change and Sustainable Development in…

  2. Terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs) at a glance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stitt, Susan; Dwyer, John; Dye, Dennis; Josberger, Edward

    2011-01-01

    The Global Terrestrial Observing System, Global Climate Observing System, World Meteorological Organization, and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites all support consistent global land observations and measurements. To accomplish this goal, the Global Terrestrial Observing System defined 'essential climate variables' as measurements of atmosphere, oceans, and land that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and that are needed to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and requirements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following are the climate variables defined by the Global Terrestrial Observing System that relate to terrestrial measurements. Several of them are currently measured most appropriately by in-place observations, whereas others are suitable for measurement by remote sensing technologies. The U.S. Geological Survey is the steward of the Landsat archive, satellite imagery collected from 1972 to the present, that provides a potential basis for deriving long-term, global-scale, accurate, timely and consistent measurements of many of these essential climate variables.

  3. Experiences on climate variability education from an empirical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

    2015-04-01

    Education materials based on investigations are prepared for teaching climate matters using graphics representation, data analysis and GrADS software. An example of how climate teleconnection are included in the teaching activities would be presented. The goal is for students to learn about how climate variability and extreme events over a region are connected to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation from an empirical perspective. Exercises and questions are prepared for collaborative and interactive learning considering the visualization and workshop activities included in the Moodle learning platform.

  4. Northern high latitude climate variability of the last millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres, Heather J.

    This work explores the causes of northern high-latitude climate variations over the last millennium, and industrial and future periods. Attribution studies are performed on a suite of global climate simulations, and four historical reconstructions of Greenland surface temperatures and precipitation (two of which are new to this work). The simulations followed the protocols of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. At least half of the multi-decadal variability in simulated Greenland climate variations over the last millennium is reproduced by a linear, empirically-generated model including terms for volcanic emissions, solar insolation changes (including total solar irradiance and orbital components) and an index associated with latitudinal shifts in the North Atlantic jet. Empirical model parameters are obtained by regressing simulated Greenland temperatures and precipitation against time series for each of the response variables. Greenhouse gas radiative forcing changes are unimportant to simulated Greenland conditions over the last millennium, although they dominate after the mid-20th century. Most of the historical Greenland climate reconstructions are restricted to the industrial period, due to a lack of spatially-comprehensive climate records. They exhibit substantial differences in the timing, phasing and amplitudes of past climate variations, due to regional sensitivities in the source data and the reconstruction methodologies. Reconstructions indicate that Greenland temperatures did not begin to follow hemispheric greenhouse gas warming patterns until the mid-1990s. This discrepancy indicates either that the warming hiatus was associated with internal climate variability, or that the simulations are missing processes important to Greenland climate. For example, indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols are not captured in the climate model employed here. All of the external climate forcings

  5. Processes in Decadal Climate Variability and their Incorporation into a Decadal Climate Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.; Vamborg, F.

    2012-12-01

    The quality of decadal climate predictions rests fundamentally on the ability of the forecast models realistically to simulate climate and its variability, in particular at decadal timescales. The new German research project "MiKlip - Decadal Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) aims to develop a system for climate predictions for up to a decade ahead that can then be applied by an operational agency such as the German Meteorological Service DWD. This climate prediction system is based on the MPI-M Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. Different aspects of decadal climate predictions are considered in MiKlip like initialisation strategies, the predictive skill on the regional scale with focus on Europe and Africa and the systematic evaluation of the prediction system. Another part of MiKlip deals with the incorporation of those processes in climate models that are important for the realistic representation of decadal climate variability, and the understanding of the important processes in the numerical prediction system. Processes that have the potential to improve decadal climate predictions are related to e.g. Arctic sea ice, atmospheric chemistry, large volcanic eruptions, atmosphere-ocean coupling, stratosphere and land-atmosphere interaction. The work dealing with the processes can be categorized into assessing the effects of enhanced resolution and of advanced parameterizations and numerics, investigating mechanisms of decadal variability, improvement of existing system components and coupling of additional climate subsystems.

  6. Item repetition in short-term memory: Ranschburg repeated.

    PubMed

    Henson, R N

    1998-09-01

    In serial recall from short-term memory, repeated items are recalled well when close together (repetition facilitation), but not when far apart (repetition inhibition; the Ranschburg effect). These effects were re-examined with a new scoring scheme that addresses the possibility that repetitions are distinct tokens in memory. Repetition facilitation and repetition inhibition proved robust, and were shown to interact with the temporal grouping of items (Experiment 1), which affected the probability of detecting repetition (Experiments 2A and 2B). It is argued that detection of a repetition is necessary for repetition facilitation, attributable to the tagging of immediate repetition, whereas the failure to detect or remember a repetition results in repetition inhibition, attributable to an automatic suppression of previous responses and a bias against guessing repeated items (Experiment 3). The findings are discussed in relation to models of short-term memory and the phenomenon of repetition blindness.

  7. Effects of sleep deprivation on short-term recognition memory.

    PubMed

    Polzella, D J

    1975-03-01

    A probe-recognition short-term memory paradigm was used to inquire into the precise effects of sleep deprivation on human memory. It was found that recognition performance, as measured by d', was generally impaired for each subjects after 24 hr of sleep deprivation. While d' was shown to decrease exponentially as the number of items intervening between the target and the probe increased, this decay rate was not affected by sleep loss. In addition there was confirmation of a previously observed increase in the positive skewness of reaction times after wakefulness. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that sleep deprivation increases the occurrence of lapses, periods of lowered reactive capacity, which prevent the encoding of items in short-term memory.

  8. The psychotomimetic effects of short-term sensory deprivation.

    PubMed

    Mason, Oliver J; Brady, Francesca

    2009-10-01

    People experiencing sensory deprivation often report perceptual disturbances such as hallucinations, especially over extended periods of time. However, there is little evidence concerning short-term sensory deprivation and whether its effects differ depending on the individual concerned, and in particular their proneness to psychosis. This study explored whether perceptual disturbances could be elicited by a brief period of complete isolation from sound and vision in both highly hallucination prone and nonhallucination prone groups. Greater psychotomimetic experiences taking the form of perceptual disturbances, paranoia, and anhedonia were found across both groups when under sensory deprivation. In addition, hallucination-prone individuals experienced more perceptual disturbances when placed in short-term sensory deprivation than nonprone individuals. This result is discussed in terms of difficulties in source monitoring as a possible mechanism involved in proneness to hallucinations.

  9. Limitless capacity: a dynamic object-oriented approach to short-term memory

    PubMed Central

    Macken, Bill; Taylor, John; Jones, Dylan

    2015-01-01

    The notion of capacity-limited processing systems is a core element of cognitive accounts of limited and variable performance, enshrined within the short-term memory construct. We begin with a detailed critical analysis of the conceptual bases of this view and argue that there are fundamental problems – ones that go to the heart of cognitivism more generally – that render it untenable. In place of limited capacity systems, we propose a framework for explaining performance that focuses on the dynamic interplay of three aspects of any given setting: the particular task that must be accomplished, the nature and form of the material upon which the task must be performed, and the repertoire of skills and perceptual-motor functions possessed by the participant. We provide empirical examples of the applications of this framework in areas of performance typically accounted for by reference to capacity-limited short-term memory processes. PMID:25852610

  10. Detection of mental stress due to oral academic examination via ultra-short-term HRV analysis.

    PubMed

    Castaldo, R; Xu, W; Melillo, P; Pecchia, L; Santamaria, L; James, C

    2016-08-01

    Mental stress may cause cognitive dysfunctions, cardiovascular disorders and depression. Mental stress detection via short-term Heart Rate Variability (HRV) analysis has been widely explored in the last years, while ultra-short term (less than 5 minutes) HRV has been not. This study aims to detect mental stress using linear and non-linear HRV features extracted from 3 minutes ECG excerpts recorded from 42 university students, during oral examination (stress) and at rest after a vacation. HRV features were then extracted and analyzed according to the literature using validated software tools. Statistical and data mining analysis were then performed on the extracted HRV features. The best performing machine learning method was the C4.5 tree algorithm, which discriminated between stress and rest with sensitivity, specificity and accuracy rate of 78%, 80% and 79% respectively.

  11. Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

    2013-01-01

    the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

  12. Short-term hydroelectric generation model. Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models.

  13. Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S.

    1999-08-01

    This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

  14. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    PubMed

    Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  15. Short-term changes in beach morphology on Louisiana coast

    SciTech Connect

    Nakashima, L.D.

    1988-09-01

    A study of the short-term response of seven shoreline segments between the Sabine River and Sandy Point is based on data from a three-year coastal erosion monitoring project. Seventy-eight beach-profile transects were surveyed quarterly between December 1985 and March 1988 to determine their patterns and rates of shoreline change. Efforts were made to characterize straight and curved shorelines as well as those that have been artificially stabilized.

  16. Auditory Short-Term Memory Activation during Score Reading

    PubMed Central

    Simoens, Veerle L.; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback. PMID:23326487

  17. Short term UV line profile variation in 59 Cyg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grady, C. A.; Doazan, V.; Peters, G. J.; Willis, A.; Snow, T. P.; Aitken, D.; Barker, P. K.; Bolton, C. T.; Henrichs, H.; Kitchen, C. R.

    1982-01-01

    The International ultraviolet Explorer high dispersion spectra of 59 Cyg obtained as part of the long term monitoring program have shown that noticeable variation can occur in C 5 and N 5 on timescales 3 hours t24 to 28 hours. In order to begin to resolve whether these changes occur continuously or sporadically, 48 hours were devoted to monitoring this star in January 1982. The January spectra show no short term variation, which may be consistent with sporadic rather than continuous variation.

  18. Chaos, dynamical structure, and climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Stewart, H.B.

    1996-06-01

    Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. Techniques for identifying deterministic chaos from observed data, without recourse to mathematical models, are being developed. Powerful methods exist for reconstructing multidimensional phase space from an observed time series of a single scalar variable; these methods are invaluable when only a single scalar record of the dynamics is available. However in some applications multiple concurrent time series may be available for consideration as phase space coordinates. Here we propose some basic analytical tools for such multichannel time series data, and illustrate them by applications to a simple synthetic model of chaos, to a low-order model of atmospheric circulation, and to two high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data series. {copyright} {ital 1996 American Institute of Physics.}

  19. Research about Short- Term Production Capacity Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    bi-xi, Zhang; jing, Song; xiu-li, Yu

    Under the circumstances of uncertain fluctuation of market demand, the degree of matching between production capacity and customers demand can affect the cost, the efficiency and the profits of an enterprise. Choosing the appropriate production capacity level is an important task for decision makers. The paper analyzes the characters of the short-term demand variation, the matching between the capacity and the demand, and its influence on the enterprise. Supposing the short-term demand varies seasonally, and the objective is minimum the loss of mismatch between the production capacity and market demand.Then,short-term production capacity decision model has been developed.Based on the model, this paper has probed into the mismatching loss of three strategies: fixed capacity strategy, subsection adjustment capacity strategy and dynamic adjustment capacity strategy,and an optimal capacity strategy is provided. By fixing the capacity-demand mismatching loss and changing the capacity adjustment rate, this paper also studies the sensitivity of the capacity strategy. The result shows that, firstly, as the capacity adjustment rate is less than a certain numerical value, the dynamic adjustment capacity is the optimal choice; secondly, as the capacity adjustment rate exceeds a certain numerical value, the optimal one is fixed capacity strategy; finally, as the rate falls in some specific area, the optimal one is subsection adjustment capacity strategy. One practical example is provided to prove the model's validity.

  20. 2-arachidonoylglycerol signaling impairs short-term fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Hartley, N D; Gunduz-Cinar, O; Halladay, L; Bukalo, O; Holmes, A; Patel, S

    2016-03-01

    Impairments in fear extinction are thought to be central to the psychopathology of posttraumatic stress disorder, and endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling has been strongly implicated in extinction learning. Here we utilized the monoacylglycerol lipase inhibitor JZL184 to selectively augment brain 2-AG levels combined with an auditory cue fear-conditioning paradigm to test the hypothesis that 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling modulates short-term fear extinction learning in mice. We show that systemic JZL184 impairs short-term extinction learning in a CB1 receptor-dependent manner without affecting non-specific freezing behavior or the acquisition of conditioned fear. This effect was also observed in over-conditioned mice environmentally manipulated to re-acquire fear extinction. Cumulatively, the effects of JZL184 appear to be partly due to augmentation of 2-AG signaling in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA), as direct microinfusion of JZL184 into the BLA produced similar results. Moreover, we elucidate a short ~3-day temporal window during which 2-AG augmentation impairs extinction behavior, suggesting a preferential role for 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling in the modulation of short-term behavioral sequelae to acute traumatic stress exposure.

  1. Short-term memory in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

    PubMed

    Jia, Jason; Fernandes, Yohaan; Gerlai, Robert

    2014-08-15

    Learning and memory represent perhaps the most complex behavioral phenomena. Although their underlying mechanisms have been extensively analyzed, only a fraction of the potential molecular components have been identified. The zebrafish has been proposed as a screening tool with which mechanisms of complex brain functions may be systematically uncovered. However, as a relative newcomer in behavioral neuroscience, the zebrafish has not been well characterized for its cognitive and mnemonic features, thus learning and/or memory screens with adults have not been feasible. Here we study short-term memory of adult zebrafish. We show animated images of conspecifics (the stimulus) to the experimental subject during 1 min intervals on ten occasions separated by different (2, 4, 8 or 16 min long) inter-stimulus intervals (ISI), a between subject experimental design. We quantify the distance of the subject from the image presentation screen during each stimulus presentation interval, during each of the 1-min post-stimulus intervals immediately following the stimulus presentations and during each of the 1-min intervals furthest away from the last stimulus presentation interval and just before the next interval (pre-stimulus interval), respectively. Our results demonstrate significant retention of short-term memory even in the longest ISI group but suggest no acquisition of reference memory. Because in the employed paradigm both stimulus presentation and behavioral response quantification is computer automated, we argue that high-throughput screening for drugs or mutations that alter short-term memory performance of adult zebrafish is now becoming feasible.

  2. Does tonality boost short-term memory in congenital amusia?

    PubMed

    Albouy, Philippe; Schulze, Katrin; Caclin, Anne; Tillmann, Barbara

    2013-11-06

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. Recent findings have demonstrated that this deficit is linked to an impaired short-term memory for tone sequences. As it has been shown before that non-musicians' implicit knowledge of musical regularities can improve short-term memory for tone information, the present study investigated if this type of implicit knowledge could also influence amusics' short-term memory performance. Congenital amusics and their matched controls, who were non-musicians, had to indicate whether sequences of five tones, presented in pairs, were the same or different; half of the pairs respected musical regularities (tonal sequences) and the other half did not (atonal sequences). As previously reported for non-musician participants, the control participants showed better performance (as measured with d') for tonal sequences than for atonal ones. While this improvement was not observed in amusics, both control and amusic participants showed faster response times for tonal sequences than for atonal sequences. These findings suggest that some implicit processing of tonal structures is potentially preserved in congenital amusia. This observation is encouraging as it strengthens the perspective to exploit implicit knowledge to help reducing pitch perception and memory deficits in amusia.

  3. 2-arachidonoylglycerol signaling impairs short-term fear extinction

    PubMed Central

    Hartley, N D; Gunduz-Cinar, O; Halladay, L; Bukalo, O; Holmes, A; Patel, S

    2016-01-01

    Impairments in fear extinction are thought to be central to the psychopathology of posttraumatic stress disorder, and endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling has been strongly implicated in extinction learning. Here we utilized the monoacylglycerol lipase inhibitor JZL184 to selectively augment brain 2-AG levels combined with an auditory cue fear-conditioning paradigm to test the hypothesis that 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling modulates short-term fear extinction learning in mice. We show that systemic JZL184 impairs short-term extinction learning in a CB1 receptor-dependent manner without affecting non-specific freezing behavior or the acquisition of conditioned fear. This effect was also observed in over-conditioned mice environmentally manipulated to re-acquire fear extinction. Cumulatively, the effects of JZL184 appear to be partly due to augmentation of 2-AG signaling in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA), as direct microinfusion of JZL184 into the BLA produced similar results. Moreover, we elucidate a short ~3-day temporal window during which 2-AG augmentation impairs extinction behavior, suggesting a preferential role for 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling in the modulation of short-term behavioral sequelae to acute traumatic stress exposure. PMID:26926885

  4. Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rousseaux, Cecile

    2012-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p<0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

  5. Limited short-term prognostic utility of cerebral NIRS during neonatal therapeutic hypothermia

    PubMed Central

    Thelen, Brian J.; Bapuraj, Jayapalli R.; Burns, Joseph W.; Swenson, Aaron W.; Christensen, Mary K.; Wiggins, Stephanie A.; Barks, John D.E.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the utility of amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) and regional oxygen saturation (rSO2) measured using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for short-term outcome prediction in neonates with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) treated with therapeutic hypothermia. Methods: Neonates with HIE were monitored with dual-channel aEEG, bilateral cerebral NIRS, and systemic NIRS throughout cooling and rewarming. The short-term outcome measure was a composite of neurologic examination and brain MRI scores at 7 to 10 days. Multiple regression models were developed to assess NIRS and aEEG recorded during the 6 hours before rewarming and the 6-hour rewarming period as predictors of short-term outcome. Results: Twenty-one infants, mean gestational age 38.8 ± 1.6 weeks, median 10-minute Apgar score 4 (range 0–8), and mean initial pH 6.92 ± 0.19, were enrolled. Before rewarming, the most parsimonious model included 4 parameters (adjusted R2 = 0.59; p = 0.006): lower values of systemic rSO2 variability (p = 0.004), aEEG bandwidth variability (p = 0.019), and mean aEEG upper margin (p = 0.006), combined with higher mean aEEG bandwidth (worse discontinuity; p = 0.013), predicted worse short-term outcome. During rewarming, lower systemic rSO2 variability (p = 0.007) and depressed aEEG lower margin (p = 0.034) were associated with worse outcome (model-adjusted R2 = 0.49; p = 0.005). Cerebral NIRS data did not contribute to either model. Conclusions: During day 3 of cooling and during rewarming, loss of physiologic variability (by systemic NIRS) and invariant, discontinuous aEEG patterns predict poor short-term outcome in neonates with HIE. These parameters, but not cerebral NIRS, may be useful to identify infants suitable for studies of adjuvant neuroprotective therapies or modification of the duration of cooling and/or rewarming. PMID:23771483

  6. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddon, Alistair W. R.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R.; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J.

    2016-03-01

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  7. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

    PubMed

    Seddon, Alistair W R; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Long, Peter R; Benz, David; Willis, Kathy J

    2016-03-10

    The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

  8. Short-Term Effect of Coarse Particles on Daily Mortality Rate in A Tropical City, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Weng, Yi-Hao; Chiu, Ya-Wen; Yang, Chun-Yuh

    2015-01-01

    Many studies examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between exposure to levels of coarse particles (PM(2.5-10)) and daily mortality rate is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data and findings are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether an association exists between PM(2.5-10) levels and rate of daily mortality in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period 2006-2008. The relative risk (RR) of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model without adjustment for other pollutants, PM(2.5-10) exposure levels showed significant correlation with total mortality rate both on warm and cool days, with an interquartile range increase associated with a 14% (95% CI = 5-23%) and 12% (95% CI = 5-20%) rise in number of total deaths, respectively. In two-pollutant models, PM(2.5-10) exerted significant influence on total mortality frequency after inclusion of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) on warm days. On cool days, PM(2.5-10) induced significant elevation in total mortality rate when SO(2) or ozone (O(3)) was added in the regression model. There was no apparent indication of an association between PM(2.5-10) exposure and deaths attributed to respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study provided evidence of correlation between short-term exposure to PM(2.5-10) and increased risk of death for all causes.

  9. Responses of Emergent Behaviour in Headwater Catchments to Long-term and Short-term Environmental Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Malcolm, I. A.; Brewer, M. J.

    2007-12-01

    Emergent behaviour of hydrological processes at the catchment scale often results in relatively simple and predictable functional characteristics which are underpinned by heterogeneous, complex processes at the small scale. It is unclear how such small-scale processes are affected by long- and short-term perturbations in forcing factors affected by various environmental changes. This leads to uncertainty in how emergent behaviour will change and how hydrology and hydrochemistry will respond at the catchment scale. A powerful resource in improving predictions of such responses is applying advanced statistical analysis to long-term data sets of conservative tracers, particularly in gauged catchments that are subject to marked environmental change. Changes in tracer behaviour can provide an integrated insight into the emergent response of system functioning and its non-linear characteristics. In this paper, we present the analysis of long-term tracer data collected since 1982 in 2 small (ca. 1km2) experimental catchments in the Scottish highlands. These have been affected by marked change and variability in driving variables of climate, land cover and rainfall chemistry: Annual rainfall ranged between 1490 and 2500mm and an average 1°C increase in air temperatures was observed over the monitoring period. In addition, forestry operations resulted in 70% of each catchment being clear felled. Finally, air pollution legislation targeting acid emissions has improved the quality of precipitation, resulting in a marked reduction in acid deposition. Long-term (20 year, weekly) time-series analyses of two tracers are used to assess changes in emergent catchment behaviour. Chloride input-output time series are analysed using a range of residence time models which highlighted non-stationarity in the catchment mean residence times (which ranged between 2-11 months for individual years) and corresponding residence time distributions. At the catchments scale these were driven

  10. Large-scale climate variability and its effects on mean temperature and flowering time of Prunus and Betula in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gormsen, A. K.; Hense, A.; Toldam-Andersen, T. B.; Braun, P.

    2005-08-01

    Large-scale climate variability largely affects average climatic conditions and therefore is likely to influence the phenology of plants. In NW-Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) particularly influences winter climate and, through climate interactions on plants, flowering time of all tree species. In Denmark, like in many other NW-European countries, flowering of most tree species has become earlier since the end of the 1980’s. To quantify a possible relation between NAO and flowering time of tree species, two sources of phenological information from the Copenhagen area (Denmark) were analysed, i.e. pollen counts of the genus Betula and observed first bloom dates of Prunus avium. The Winter NAO explained 29 and 37% of the variation of monthly mean temperature for February and March, respectively. The influence of temperature on flowering time was up to 56% to 60% for the February April mean. A direct correlation of Winter NAO-index and flowering time also revealed a clear relation but the time of influence was earlier (December to February). This was shown to be the likely result of a combination of direct and time-lagged effects of the NAO on air and sea surface temperature. The NAO signal is apparently stored in the North Sea and then influences temperature east up to the Baltic States. It is shown that Denmark is right in the centre of direct and time-lagged effects of the NAO. This offers the possibility of using the NAO-index for predicting flowering time of Prunus avium. The beginning of pollen flow appears to be influenced too much by short-term perturbations of the climate system decreasing the value of the NAO-index for prediction. However, it indicates a close relationship between natural climate variability, measured by the NAO index, and flowering time of tree species for Denmark.

  11. Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

    PubMed

    Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

    2016-04-01

    Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    Crude oil production increased by 790,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between 2011 and 2012, the largest increase in annual output since the beginning of U.S. commercial crude oil production in 1859. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to continue rising over the next two years represented in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

  13. Climate variability and change scenarios for a marine commodity: Modelling small pelagic fish, fisheries and fishmeal in a globalized market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel; Mullon, Christian

    2010-04-01

    The world's small pelagic fish populations, their fisheries, fishmeal and fish oil production industries and markets are part of a globalised production and consumption system. The potential for climate variability and change to alter the balance in this system is explored by means of bioeconomic models at two different temporal scales, with the objective of investigating the interactive nature of environmental and human-induced changes on this globalised system. Short-term (interannual) environmental impacts on fishmeal production are considered by including an annual variable production rate on individual small pelagic fish stocks over a 10-year simulation period. These impacts on the resources are perceived by the fishmeal markets, where they are confronted by two aquaculture expansion hypotheses. Long-term (2080) environmental impacts on the same stocks are estimated using long-term primary production predictions as proxies for the species' carrying capacities, rather than using variable production rates, and are confronted on the market side by two alternative fishmeal management scenarios consistent with IPCC-type storylines. The two scenarios, World Markets and Global Commons, are parameterized through classic equilibrium solutions for a global surplus production bioeconomic model, namely maximum sustainable yield and open access, respectively. The fisheries explicitly modelled in this paper represent 70% of total fishmeal production, thus encapsulating the expected dynamics of the global production and consumption system. Both short and long-term simulations suggest that the sustainability of the small pelagic resources, in the face of climate variability and change, depends more on how society responds to climate impacts than on the magnitude of climate alterations per se.

  14. Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Hong-Li; Jin, Fei-Fei; Song, Lianchun; Lu, Bo; Tian, Ben; Zuo, Jinqing; Liu, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhao, Chongbo; Nie, Yu; Zhang, Peiqun; Ba, Jin; Wu, Yujie; Wan, Jianghua; Yan, Yuping; Zhou, Fang

    2017-02-01

    Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal-interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons (EAWM and EASM, respectively), on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system (CPPS) and completed a hindcast experiment for the period 1991-2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is systematically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improvements in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC's climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.

  15. America's water risk: Current demand and climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Etienne, Elius; Shi, Daniel; Xi, Chen

    2015-04-01

    A new indicator of drought-induced water stress is introduced and applied at the county level in the USA. Unlike most existing drought metrics, we directly consider current daily water demands and renewable daily water supply to estimate the potential stress. Water stress indices developed include the Normalized Deficit Cumulated to represent multiyear droughts by computing the maximum cumulative deficit between demand and supply over the study period (1949-2009) and the Normalized Deficit Index representing drought associated with maximum cumulative deficit each year. These water stress indices map directly to storage requirements needed to buffer multiyear and within-year climate variability and can reveal the dependence on exogenous water transferred by rivers/canals to the area. Future climate change and variability can be also incorporated into this framework to inform climate-driven drought for additional storage development and potential applications of water trading across counties.

  16. Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

  17. Climatic variability in Princess Elizabeth Land (East Antarctica) over the last 350 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Lipenkov, Vladimir Y.; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2017-01-01

    We use isotopic composition (δD) data from six sites in Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL) in order to reconstruct air temperature variability in this sector of East Antarctica over the last 350 years. First, we use the present-day instrumental mean annual surface air temperature data to demonstrate that the studied region (between Russia's Progress, Vostok and Mirny research stations) is characterized by uniform temperature variability. We thus construct a stacked record of the temperature anomaly for the whole sector for the period of 1958-2015. A comparison of this series with the Southern Hemisphere climatic indices shows that the short-term inter-annual temperature variability is primarily governed by the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) modes of atmospheric variability. However, the low-frequency temperature variability (with period > 27 years) is mainly related to the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. We then construct a stacked record of δD for the PEL for the period of 1654-2009 from individual normalized and filtered isotopic records obtained at six different sites (PEL2016 stacked record). We use a linear regression of this record and the stacked PEL temperature record (with an apparent slope of 9 ± 5.4 ‰ °C-1) to convert PEL2016 into a temperature scale. Analysis of PEL2016 shows a 1 ± 0.6 °C warming in this region over the last 3 centuries, with a particularly cold period from the mid-18th to the mid-19th century. A peak of cooling occurred in the 1840s - a feature previously observed in other Antarctic records. We reveal that PEL2016 correlates with a low-frequency component of IOD and suggest that the IOD mode influences the Antarctic climate by modulating the activity of cyclones that bring heat and moisture to Antarctica. We also compare PEL2016 with other Antarctic stacked isotopic records. This work is a contribution to the PAGES (Past Global Changes) and IPICS (International

  18. Estimation of desmosponge (Porifera, Demospongiae) larval settlement rates from short-term recruitment rates: Preliminary experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zea, Sven

    1992-09-01

    During a study of the spatial and temporal patterns of desmosponge (Porifera, Demospongiae) recruitment on rocky and coral reef habitats of Santa Marta, Colombian Caribbean Sea, preliminary attempts were made to estimate actual settlement rates from short-term (1 to a few days) recruitment censuses. Short-term recruitment rates on black, acrylic plastic plates attached to open, non-cryptic substratum by anchor screws were low and variable (0 5 recruits/plate in 1 2 days, sets of n=5 10 plates), but reflected the depth and seasonal trends found using mid-term (1 to a few months) censusing intervals. Moreover, mortality of recruits during 1 2 day intervals was low (0 12%). Thus, short-term censusing intervals can be used to estimate actual settlement rates. To be able to make statistical comparisons, however, it is necessary to increase the number of recruits per census by pooling data of n plates per set, and to have more than one set per site or treatment.

  19. Determinants and short-term physiological consequences of PHA immune response in lesser kestrel nestlings.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez, Airam; Broggi, Juli; Alcaide, Miguel; Negro, Juan José; Figuerola, Jordi

    2014-08-01

    Individual immune responses are likely affected by genetic, physiological, and environmental determinants. We studied the determinants and short-term consequences of Phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) induced immune response, a commonly used immune challenge eliciting both innate and acquired immunity, on lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) nestlings in semi-captivity conditions and with a homogeneous diet composition. We conducted a repeated measures analyses of a set of blood parameters (carotenoids, triglycerides, β-hydroxybutyrate, cholesterol, uric acid, urea, total proteins, and total antioxidant capacity), metabolic (resting metabolic rate), genotypic (MHC class II B heterozygosity), and biometric (body mass) variables. PHA challenge did not affect the studied physiological parameters on a short-term basis (<12 hr), except plasma concentrations of triglycerides and carotenoids, which decreased and increased, respectively. Uric acid was the only physiological parameter correlated with the PHA induced immune response (skin swelling), but the change of body mass, cholesterol, total antioxidant capacity, and triglycerides between sessions (i.e., post-pre treatment) were also positively correlated to PHA response. No relationships were detected between MHC gene heterozygosity or resting metabolic rate and PHA response. Our results indicate that PHA response in lesser kestrel nestlings growing in optimal conditions does not imply a severe energetic cost 12 hr after challenge, but is condition-dependent as a rapid mobilization of carotenoids and decrease of triglycerides is elicited on a short-term basis.

  20. Linking Genetic Counseling Content to Short-Term Outcomes in Individuals at Elevated Breast Cancer Risk

    PubMed Central

    Ellington, Lee; Schoenberg, Nancy; Agarwal, Parul; Jackson, Thomas; Dickinson, Stephanie; Abraham, Jame; Paskett, Electra D.; Leventhal, Howard; Andrykowski, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Few studies have linked actual genetic counseling content to short-term outcomes. Using the Self-regulation Model, the impact of cognitive and affective content in genetic counseling on short-term outcomes was studied in individuals at elevated risk of familial breast-ovarian cancer. Surveys assessed dependent variables: distress, perceived risk, and 6 knowledge measures (Meaning of Positive Test; Meaning of Negative Test; Personal Behavior; Practitioner Knowledge; Mechanisms of Cancer Inheritance; Frequency of Inherited Cancer) measured at pre- and post-counseling. Proportion of participant cognitive and affective and counselor cognitive and affective content during sessions (using LIWC software) were predictors in regressions. Knowledge increased for 5 measures and decreased for Personal Behavior, Distress and Perceived Risk. Controlling for age and education, results were significant/marginally significant for three measures. More counselor content was associated with decreases in knowledge of Personal Behavior. More participant and less counselor affective content was associated with gains in Practitioner Knowledge. More counselor cognitive, and interaction of counselor cognitive and affective content, were associated with higher perceived risk. Genetic counselors dominate the content of counseling sessions. Therefore, their content is tied more closely to short term outcomes than participant content. A lack of patient communication in sessions may pose problems for understanding of complex concepts. PMID:24671341

  1. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  2. A Spiking Working Memory Model Based on Hebbian Short-Term Potentiation.

    PubMed

    Fiebig, Florian; Lansner, Anders

    2017-01-04

    A dominant theory of working memory (WM), referred to as the persistent activity hypothesis, holds that recurrently connected neural networks, presumably located in the prefrontal cortex, encode and maintain WM memory items through sustained elevated activity. Reexamination of experimental data has shown that prefrontal cortex activity in single units during delay periods is much more variable than predicted by such a theory and associated computational models. Alternative models of WM maintenance based on synaptic plasticity, such as short-term nonassociative (non-Hebbian) synaptic facilitation, have been suggested but cannot account for encoding of novel associations. Here we test the hypothesis that a recently identified fast-expressing form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity (associative short-term potentiation) is a possible mechanism for WM encoding and maintenance. Our simulations using a spiking neural network model of cortex reproduce a range of cognitive memory effects in the classical multi-item WM task of encoding and immediate free recall of word lists. Memory reactivation in the model occurs in discrete oscillatory bursts rather than as sustained activity. We relate dynamic network activity as well as key synaptic characteristics to electrophysiological measurements. Our findings support the hypothesis that fast Hebbian short-term potentiation is a key WM mechanism.

  3. Psychological impact of short-term isolation measures in hospitalised patients.

    PubMed

    Wassenberg, M W M; Severs, D; Bonten, M J M

    2010-06-01

    Unintended negative effects, such as anxiety and depression, have been demonstrated in patients subjected to infection control strategies, such as isolation for long periods. Yet isolation precautions are mostly short-term. We therefore determined levels of anxiety, depression and quality of life in patients exposed to short-term isolation. In a cross-sectional matched cohort study, performed in a single university hospital, patients isolated for infection control were evaluated with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale [HADS-A (Anxiety) and HADS-D (Depression)], Visual Analogue Scale of EQ-5D (EQ VAS) and an isolation evaluation questionnaire within 24-48 h after start of isolation. Two matched controls were selected for each isolated patient. Isolated patients (N=42) and control patients (N=84) had comparable HADS-A (4.5 vs 5.0), HADS-D (4.0 vs 5.0) and EQ VAS (65 vs 62) scores. In multiple regression analysis comorbidity was associated with EQ VAS outcome (P=0.005), whereas all other variables, including being in isolation, were unrelated to HADS and EQ VAS scores. Patients reported positive associations with isolation measures. The quality of care provided by physicians and nurses, as perceived by isolated patients, was not negatively affected in 74% and 71% of patients, respectively. In conclusion, short-term infection control measures do not influence hospitalised patients' levels of anxiety and depression and quality of life. Isolated patients had a positive attitude towards the precautions taken.

  4. Linking genetic counseling content to short-term outcomes in individuals at elevated breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Kimberly M; Ellington, Lee; Schoenberg, Nancy; Agarwal, Parul; Jackson, Thomas; Dickinson, Stephanie; Abraham, Jame; Paskett, Electra D; Leventhal, Howard; Andrykowski, Michael

    2014-10-01

    Few studies have linked actual genetic counseling content to short-term outcomes. Using the Self-regulation Model, the impact of cognitive and affective content in genetic counseling on short-term outcomes was studied in individuals at elevated risk of familial breast-ovarian cancer. Surveys assessed dependent variables: distress, perceived risk, and 6 knowledge measures (Meaning of Positive Test; Meaning of Negative Test; Personal Behavior; Practitioner Knowledge; Mechanisms of Cancer Inheritance; Frequency of Inherited Cancer) measured at pre- and post-counseling. Proportion of participant cognitive and affective and counselor cognitive and affective content during sessions (using LIWC software) were predictors in regressions. Knowledge increased for 5 measures and decreased for Personal Behavior, Distress and Perceived Risk. Controlling for age and education, results were significant/marginally significant for three measures. More counselor content was associated with decreases in knowledge of Personal Behavior. More participant and less counselor affective content was associated with gains in Practitioner Knowledge. More counselor cognitive, and interaction of counselor cognitive and affective content, were associated with higher perceived risk. Genetic counselors dominate the content of counseling sessions. Therefore, their content is tied more closely to short term outcomes than participant content. A lack of patient communication in sessions may pose problems for understanding of complex concepts.

  5. Ecological bias in studies of the short-term effects of air pollution on health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaddick, Gavin; Lee, Duncan; Wakefield, Jonathan

    2013-06-01

    There has been a great deal of research into the short-term effects of air pollution on health with a large number of studies modelling the association between aggregate disease counts and environmental exposures measured at point locations, for example via air pollution monitors. In such cases, the standard approach is to average the observed measurements from the individual monitors and use this in a log-linear health model. Hence such studies are ecological in nature being based on spatially aggregated health and exposure data. Here we investigate the potential for bias in the estimates of the effects on health when estimating the short-term effects of air pollution on health. Such ecological bias may occur if a simple summary measure, such as a daily mean, is not a suitable summary of a spatially variable pollution surface. We assess the performance of commonly used models when confronted with such issues using simulation studies and compare their performance with a model specifically designed to acknowledge the effects of exposure aggregation. In addition to simulation studies, we apply the models to a case study of the short-term effects of particulate matter on respiratory mortality using data from Greater London for the period 2002-2005. We found a significant increased risk of 3% (95% CI 1-5%) associated with the average of the previous three days exposure to particulate matter (per 10 μg m-3 PM10).

  6. Prediction and predictability of North American seasonal climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Infanti, Johnna M.

    Climate prediction on short time-scales such as months to seasons is of broad and current interest in the scientific research community. Monthly and seasonal climate prediction of variables such as precipitation, temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) has implications for users in the agricultural and water management domains, among others. It is thus important to further understand the complexities of prediction of these variables using the most recent practices in climate prediction. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to determine the important contributions to seasonal prediction skill, predictability, and variability over North America using current climate prediction models and approaches. This dissertation aims to study a variety of approaches to seasonal climate prediction of variables over North America, including both climate prediction systems and methods of analysis. We utilize the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) System for Intra-Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (ISI) to study seasonal climate prediction skill of North American and in particular for southeast US precipitation. We find that NMME results are often equal to or better than individual model results in terms of skill, as expected, making it a reasonable choice for southeast US seasonal climate predictions. However, climate models, including those involved in NMME, typically overestimate eastern Pacific warming during central Pacific El Nino events, which can affect regions that are influenced by teleconnections, such as the southeast US. Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) hindacasts and forecasts are included in NMME, and we preform a series of experiments that examine contributions to skill from certain drivers of North American climate prediction. The drivers we focus on are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their accuracy, land and atmosphere initialization, and ocean-atmosphere coupling. We compare measures of prediction skill of

  7. Impact of Solar Variability on the Earth's Climate Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruzmaikin, A.

    2007-05-01

    We discuss the effect of solar variability on the Earth climate patterns. The climate patterns are naturally excited in the noisy atmosphere-ocean dynamical system as deviations (anomalies) from a global (mean) state. Some of the climate patterns couple the upper and lower atmosphere and are affected by the ocean. An example of this type of climate pattern is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), a climate anomaly with two basic states corresponding to higher pressure at high latitudes with a band of lower pressure at lower latitudes and the other way round (Thompson & Wallace, 1998; Baldwin & Dunkerton, 1999). Two states of the NAM arise due to the dynamical interaction of planetary waves and zonal mean wind (Limpasuvan & Hartmann, 2001; Ruzmaikin et al., 2006). The NAM accounts for 23% of atmospheric variability at sea level and about 50% of the variability in the stratosphere. Solar variability influences the NAM through the change of the UV flux in upper atmosphere. The influence depends on the phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation and time in the winter season (Ruzmaikin & Feynman, 2002). We discuss a possible mechanism by which solar variability can affect the NAM and the climate patterns in general (involving the Rossby-Palmer conjecture, Palmer, 1999). In contrast to the standard linear evaluation of climate sensitivity to an external forcing we outline a non-linear approach to the forcing problem. In particular, we evaluate the distributions of residence times spent in each state of the pattern and show how these distributions depend on external forcing caused by the anthropogenic and solar changes. References: Thompson, D. W. J. & J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297, 1998; Baldwin, M. P. & T. J. Dunkerton, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 30,937, 1999; Limpasuvan, V., & D. Hartmann, J. Climate, 13, 4414, 2001; Ruzmaikin, A., J, Feynman, J. Geophys. Res., 107, D14, 10.1029/2001JD001239, 2002; Ruzmaikin, A., J. K. Lawrence & A. C. Cadavid, J. Atmos. Space Phys

  8. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, 2nd quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-05-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 1995. Values for the first quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available. The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1994 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the STIFS. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

  9. Post larval, short-term, colonization patterns: The effect of substratum complexity across subtidal, adjacent, habitats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Sanz, Sara; Tuya, Fernando; Navarro, Pablo G.; Angulo-Preckler, Carlos; Haroun, Ricardo J.

    2012-10-01

    Benthic habitats are colonized by organisms from the water column and adjacent habitats. There are, however, variations in the 'acceptability' of any habitat to potential colonists. We assessed whether the structural complexity of artificial substrata affected patterns of short-term colonization of post larval faunal assemblages across subtidal habitats within a coastal landscape. Specifically, we tested whether short-term colonization patterns on 3 types of artificial substrata encompassing a range of complexities, including a leaf-like unit, a cushion-shaped leaf-like unit and a cushion-shaped unit, were consistent across 4 adjacent habitats: macroalgal-dominated bottoms, urchin-grazed barrens, seagrass meadows and sandy patches, at Gran Canaria (eastern Atlantic). A total of 16,174 organisms were collected after 4 weeks and 4 taxonomic groups (Crustacea, Chordata, Echinodermata and Mollusca) dominated the assemblage. Despite considerable among-taxa variability being observed in response to habitat effects, the total abundance of colonizers, as well as the abundance of Arthropoda, Chordata and Echinodermata, was affected by the habitat where collectors were deployed, but did not differ among types of collectors. Similarly, the assemblage structure of colonizers was mainly affected by the habitat, but not by the type of collector; habitat contributed to explain most variation in the assemblage structure of the four dominant taxonomic groups (from ca. 5.44-19.23%), and obscured, in all cases, variation explained by the type of collector. As a result, the variation in short-term colonization patterns of faunal assemblages into artificial collectors was mostly affected by variation associated with habitats rather than by differences in the structural complexity of collectors. The largest abundances of colonizers, particularly Echinodermata, were found on sandy patches relative to other habitats, suggesting that the 'availability', rather than any particular attribute

  10. Short-Term Synaptic Plasticity at Interneuronal Synapses Could Sculpt Rhythmic Motor Patterns

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Yan; Parker, David

    2016-01-01

    The output of a neuronal network depends on the organization and functional properties of its component cells and synapses. While the characterization of synaptic properties has lagged cellular analyses, a potentially important aspect in rhythmically active networks is how network synapses affect, and are in turn affected by, network activity. This could lead to a potential circular interaction where short-term activity-dependent synaptic plasticity is both influenced by and influences the network output. The analysis of synaptic plasticity in the lamprey locomotor network was extended here to characterize the short-term plasticity of connections between network interneurons and to try and address its potential network role. Paired recordings from identified interneurons in quiescent networks showed synapse-specific synaptic properties and plasticity that supported the presence of two hemisegmental groups that could influence bursting: depression in an excitatory interneuron group, and facilitation in an inhibitory feedback circuit. The influence of activity-dependent synaptic plasticity on network activity was investigated experimentally by changing Ringer Ca2+ levels, and in a simple computer model. A potential caveat of the experimental analyses was that changes in Ringer Ca2+ (and compensatory adjustments in Mg2+ in some cases) could alter several other cellular and synaptic properties. Several of these properties were tested, and while there was some variability, these were not usually significantly affected by the Ringer changes. The experimental analyses suggested that depression of excitatory inputs had the strongest influence on the patterning of network activity. The simulation supported a role for this effect, and also suggested that the inhibitory facilitating group could modulate the influence of the excitatory synaptic depression. Short-term activity-dependent synaptic plasticity has not generally been considered in spinal cord models. These results

  11. Short-Term Heart Rate Variability—Influence of Gender and Age in Healthy Subjects

    PubMed Central

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Heitmann, Andreas; Peters, Annette; Perz, Siegfried

    2015-01-01

    In the recent years, short-term heart rate variability (HRV) describing complex variations of beat-to-beat interval series that are mainly controlled by the autonomic nervous system (ANS) has been increasingly analyzed to assess the ANS activity in different diseases and under various conditions. In contrast to long-term HRV analysis, short-term investigations (<30 min) provide a test result almost immediately. Thus, short-term HRV analysis is suitable for ambulatory care, patient monitoring and all those applications where the result is urgently needed. In a previous study, we could show significant variations of 5-min HRV indices according to age in almost all domains (linear and nonlinear) in 1906 healthy subjects from the KORA S4 cohort. Based on the same group of subjects, general gender-related influences on HRV indices are to be determined in this study. Short-term 5-min HRV indices from linear time and frequency domain and from nonlinear methods (compression entropy, detrended fluctuation analysis, traditional and segmented Poincaré plot analysis, irreversibility analysis, symbolic dynamics, correlation and mutual information analysis) were determined from 782 females and 1124 males. First, we examined the gender differences in two age clusters (25–49 years and 50–74 years). Secondly, we investigated the gender-specific development of HRV indices in five age decade categories, namely for ages 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64 and 65–74 years. In this study, significant modifications of the indices according to gender could be obtained, especially in the frequency domain and correlation analyses. Furthermore, there were significant modifications according to age in nearly all of the domains. The gender differences disappeared within the last two age decades and the age dependencies disappeared in the last decade. To summarize gender and age influences need to be considered when performing HRV studies even if these influences only partly differ. PMID

  12. Decadal Variability of Clouds and Comparison with Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, H.; Shen, T. J.; Jiang, J. H.; Yung, Y. L.

    2014-12-01

    An apparent climate regime shift occurred around 1998/1999, when the steady increase of global-mean surface temperature appeared to hit a hiatus. Coherent decadal variations are found in atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycles. Using 30-year cloud observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, we examine the decadal variability of clouds and associated cloud radiative effects on surface warming. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is performed. After removing the seasonal cycle and ENSO signal in the 30-year data, we find that the leading EOF modes clearly represent a decadal variability in cloud fraction, well correlated with the indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The cloud radiative effects associated with decadal variations of clouds suggest a positive cloud feedback, which would reinforce the global warming hiatus by a net cloud cooling after 1998/1999. Climate model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature are compared with satellite observed cloud decadal variability. Copyright:

  13. Temperature, global climate change and food security

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Accelerated climate change is expected to have a significant, but variable impact on the world’s major cropping zones. Crops will experience increasingly warmer, drier and more variable growing conditions in the temperate to subtropical latitudes towards 2050 and beyond. Short-term (1-5 day) spikes ...

  14. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  15. Emergency presentation of cancer and short-term mortality

    PubMed Central

    McPhail, S; Elliss-Brookes, L; Shelton, J; Ives, A; Greenslade, M; Vernon, S; Morris, E J A; Richards, M

    2013-01-01

    Background: The short-term survival following a cancer diagnosis in England is lower than that in comparable countries, with the difference in excess mortality primarily occurring in the months immediately after diagnosis. We assess the impact of emergency presentation (EP) on the excess mortality in England over the course of the year following diagnosis. Methods: All colorectal and cervical cancers presenting in England and all breast, lung, and prostate cancers in the East of England in 2006–2008 are included. The variation in the likelihood of EP with age, stage, sex, co-morbidity, and income deprivation is modelled. The excess mortality over 0–1, 1–3, 3–6, and 6–12 months after diagnosis and its dependence on these case-mix factors and presentation route is then examined. Results: More advanced stage and older age are predictive of EP, as to a lesser extent are co-morbidity, higher income deprivation, and female sex. In the first month after diagnosis, we observe case-mix-adjusted excess mortality rate ratios of 7.5 (cervical), 5.9 (colorectal), 11.7 (breast ), 4.0 (lung), and 20.8 (prostate) for EP compared with non-EP. Conclusion: Individuals who present as an emergency experience high short-term mortality in all cancer types examined compared with non-EPs. This is partly a case-mix effect but EP remains predictive of short-term mortality even when age, stage, and co-morbidity are accounted for. PMID:24045658

  16. Power system very short-term load prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Trudnowski, D.J.; Johnson, J.M.; Whitney, P.

    1997-02-01

    A fundamental objective of a power-system operating and control scheme is to maintain a match between the system`s overall real-power load and generation. To accurately maintain this match, modern energy management systems require estimates of the future total system load. Several strategies and tools are available for estimating system load. Nearly all of these estimate the future load in 1-hour steps over several hours (or time frames very close to this). While hourly load estimates are very useful for many operation and control decisions, more accurate estimates at closer intervals would also be valuable. This is especially true for emerging Area Generation Control (AGC) strategies such as look-ahead AGC. For these short-term estimation applications, future load estimates out to several minutes at intervals of 1 to 5 minutes are required. The currently emerging operation and control strategies being developed by the BPA are dependent on accurate very short-term load estimates. To meet this need, the BPA commissioned the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Montana Tech (an affiliate of the University of Montana) to develop an accurate load prediction algorithm and computer codes that automatically update and can reliably perform in a closed-loop controller for the BPA system. The requirements include accurate load estimation in 5-minute steps out to 2 hours. This report presents the results of this effort and includes: a methodology and algorithms for short-term load prediction that incorporates information from a general hourly forecaster; specific algorithm parameters for implementing the predictor in the BPA system; performance and sensitivity studies of the algorithms on BPA-supplied data; an algorithm for filtering power system load samples as a precursor to inputting into the predictor; and FORTRAN 77 subroutines for implementing the algorithms.

  17. Long- and short-term temperature responses of microbially-mediated boreal soil organic matter transformations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Min, K.; Buckeridge, K. M.; Edwards, K. A.; Ziegler, S. E.; Billings, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    Microorganisms use exoenzymes to decay soil organic matter into assimilable substrates, some of which are transformed into CO2. Microbial CO2 efflux contributes up to 60% of soil respiration, a feature that can change with temperature due to altered exoenzyme activities (short-term) and microbial communities producing different exoenzymes (longer-term). Often, however, microbial temperature responses are masked by factors that also change with temperature in soil, making accurate projections of microbial CO2 efflux with warming challenging. Using soils along a natural climate gradient similar in most respects except for temperature regime (Newfoundland Labrador Boreal Ecosystem Latitudinal Transect), we investigated short-vs. long-term temperature responses of microbially-mediated organic matter transformations. While incubating soils at 5, 15, and 25°C for 84 days, we measured exoenzyme activities, CO2 efflux rates and biomass, and extracted DNA at multiple times. We hypothesized that short-term, temperature-induced increases in exoenzyme activities and CO2 losses would be smaller in soils from warmer regions, because microbes presumably adapted to warmer regions should use assimilable substrates more efficiently and thus produce exoenzymes at a lower rate. While incubation temperature generally induced greater exoenzyme activities (p<0.001), exoenzymes' temperature responses depended on enzymes and regions (p<0.001). Rate of CO2 efflux was affected by incubation temperature (P<0.001), but not by region. Microbial biomass and DNA sequencing will reveal how microbial community abundance and composition change with short-vs. longer-term temperature change. Though short-term microbial responses to temperature suggest higher CO2 efflux and thus lower efficiency of resource use with warming, longer-term adaptations of microbial communities to warmer climates remain unknown; this work helps fill that knowledge gap.

  18. Improving digit span assessment of short-term verbal memory.

    PubMed

    Woods, David L; Kishiyamaa, Mark M; Lund, E William; Herron, Timothy J; Edwards, Ben; Poliva, Oren; Hink, Robert F; Reed, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    We measured digit span (DS) in two experiments that used computerized presentation of randomized auditory digits with performance-adapted list length adjustment. A new mean span (MS) metric of DS was developed that showed reduced variance, improved test-retest reliability, and higher correlations with the results of other neuropsychological test results when compared to traditional DS measures. The MS metric also enhanced the sensitivity of forward versus backward span comparisons, enabled the development of normative performance criteria with subdigit precision, and elucidated changes in DS performance with age and education level. Computerized stimulus delivery and improved scoring metrics significantly enhance the precision of DS assessments of short-term verbal memory.

  19. Short-term energy outlook. Volume 2. Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1983-05-01

    Recent changes in forecasting methodology for nonutility distillate fuel oil demand and for the near-term petroleum forecasts are discussed. The accuracy of previous short-term forecasts of most of the major energy sources published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook is evaluated. Macroeconomic and weather assumptions are included in this evaluation. Energy forecasts for 1983 are compared. Structural change in US petroleum consumption, the use of appropriate weather data in energy demand modeling, and petroleum inventories, imports, and refinery runs are discussed.

  20. Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweickert, Richard; Hayt, Cathrin

    1988-01-01

    In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

  1. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  2. Short-term muscle power during growth and maturation.

    PubMed

    Van Praagh, Emmanuel; Doré, Eric

    2002-01-01

    During growth and maturation, the study of very brief high-intensity exercise has not received the same attention from researchers as, for instance, aerobic function. In anaerobic tasks or sports events such as sprint cycling, jumping or running, the children's performance is distinctly lower than that of adults. This partly reflects children's lesser ability to generate mechanical energy from chemical energy sources during short-term intensive activity. For many years, various attempts have been made to quantify the anaerobic energy yield in maximal-intensity exercise, but many assumptions have had to be made with respect to mechanical efficiency, lactate turnover, dilution space for lactate, and so on. During childhood and adolescence, direct measurements of the rate or capacity of anaerobic pathways for energy turnover presents several ethical and methodological difficulties. Thus, rather than measure energy supply, paediatric exercise scientists have concentrated on measuring short-term muscle power (STMP) by means of standardised tests. Previously, investigators have used various protocols such as short-term cycling power tests, vertical jump tests or running tests. Cycling ergometer tests are the most common. There is, however, no ideal test, and so it is important to acknowledge the limitations of each test. Progress has been made in assessing instantaneous cycling STMP from a single exercise bout. Several investigators have reported STMP increases with age and have suggested that late pubertal period may accentuate anaerobic glycolysis. Mass-related STMP was shown to increase dramatically during childhood and adolescence, whereas the corresponding increase in peak blood lactate was considerably lower. The latter results support the hypothesis that the difference observed between children and adolescents during STMP testing is more related to neuromuscular factors, hormonal factors and improved motor coordination, rather than being an indicator of reduced

  3. MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro

    2016-04-18

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10{sup −26}∼10{sup −27} are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz∼100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  4. Short-term bioconcentration studies of Np in freshwater biota

    SciTech Connect

    Poston, T.M.; Klopfer, D.C.; Simmons, M.A. )

    1990-12-01

    Short-term laboratory exposures were conducted to determine the potential accumulation of Np in aquatic organisms. Concentration factors were highest in green algae. Daphnia magna, a filter-feeding crustacean, accumulated Np at levels one order of magnitude greater than the amphipod Gammarus sp., an omnivorous substrate feeder. Accumulation of Np in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was highest in carcass (generally greater than 78% of the total body burden) and lowest in fillets. Recommended concentration factors for Np, based on fresh weight, were 300 for green algae, 100 for filter-feeding invertebrates, for nonfilter-feeding invertebrates, 10 for whole fish, and one for fish flesh.

  5. Overwriting and intrusion in short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Bancroft, Tyler D; Jones, Jeffery A; Ensor, Tyler M; Hockley, William E; Servos, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Studies of interference in working and short-term memory suggest that irrelevant information may overwrite the contents of memory or intrude into memory. While some previous studies have reported greater interference when irrelevant information is similar to the contents of memory than when it is dissimilar, other studies have reported greater interference for dissimilar distractors than for similar distractors. In the present study, we find the latter effect in a paradigm that uses auditory tones as stimuli. We suggest that the effects of distractor similarity to memory contents are mediated by the type of information held in memory, particularly the complexity or simplicity of information.

  6. Deformability of expanded polystyrene under short-term compression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnip, I. J.; Vaitkus, S. I.; Kersulis, V. I.; Veyelis, S. A.

    2007-09-01

    The results obtained in an experimental investigation of deformability of expanded polystyrene (EPS) under short-term compression are presented. The density of EPS varied from 13 to 28 kg/m3. The method of design of experiments was used to determine the elastic modulus and the ultimate strain (corresponding to the end of quasi-linear deformability) under compression stresses operating perpendicularly and parallel to the faces of EPS products. A graphical interpretation of the models is also presented. Based on the experimental data obtained, it was concluded that the expanded polystyrene was homogeneous in mutually perpendicular planes with respect to its deformability in compression.

  7. MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro

    2016-04-01

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10-26~ 10-27 are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz~100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  8. Integrating short-term and long-term forecasting with reservoir optimisation; Mantaro Basin, Peru.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, R. A.; Lasarte, A.; Butts, M. B.

    2009-04-01

    Operational water management often requires a trade-off between short-term and long-term water demands, where short-term demands are driven for example by hydropower generation and flood protection requirements and the long-term demands by water and irrigation supply, sustainable reservoir management and the seasonal impacts of snow melt or climate. This paper presents an operational decision support system designed to forecast and optimise reservoir operations in both the short-term and long-term. The system has been established for the 20,000 km2 Mantaro river basin located in the high Andes with altitudes ranging from 3500 to nearly 6000 m.a.s.l.. The two main power stations at Tablachaca have a combined capacity of more than 1000 MW that supplies 30% of Peru's electrical energy. In addition, the basin's water resources supply extensive agricultural areas, an urban population and mining activities and sustain important ecological habitats. In this paper, the methodologies used for the integrating short-term and long-term forecasting are presented together with their application to the optimal operation of reservoirs. A key element in the system is the MIKE BASIN modelling tool. The system uses several modelling capabilities of MIKE BASIN: rainfall-runoff, reservoir operation, hydropower production, and river flow routing. The system also takes advantage of long-term forecasts (based on statistical information) and short-term forecasts (based on telemetry data). The continually updated runoff and flow forecasts enter the optimization, which applies the Model Predictive Control principle for MIKE BASIN as the core simulation model. For each optimization, a non-linear program algorithm is used to find the best release strategy. On the basis of the forecasted inflows and the real time data the system suggests to the user from which reservoirs to release water for alleviation of possible forecasted deficits. In addition to the Tablachaca scheme the model accounts for

  9. Mid-Holocene regional reorganization of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirtz, K. W.; Bernhardt, K.; Lohmann, G.; Lemmen, C.

    2009-01-01

    We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events in the time series. Main outcomes are: First, the propensity of the climate system to fluctuations is a region specific property. Many records of adjacent sites reveal a similar change in variability although they belong to different proxy types (e.g., δ18O, lithic composition). Secondly, at most sites, irreversible change occured in the Mid-Holocene. We suggest that altered ocean circulation together with slightly modified coupling intensity between regional climate subsystems around the 5.5 kyr BP event (termination of the African Humid Period) were responsible for the shift. Fluctuations especially intensified along a pan-American corridor. This may have led to an unequal crisis probability for early human civilizations in the Old and New World. Our study did not produce evidence for millennial scale cyclicity in some solar activity proxies for the Upper Holocene, nor for a privileged role of the prominent 250, 550, 900 and 1450 yr cycles. This lack of global periodicities corroborates the regional character of climate variability.

  10. Mid-Holocene regional reorganization of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirtz, K. W.; Bernhardt, K.; Lohmann, G.; Lemmen, C.

    2009-04-01

    We integrate 130 globally distributed proxy time series to refine the understanding of climate variability during the Holocene. Cyclic anomalies and temporal trends in periodicity from the Lower to the Upper Holocene are extracted by combining Lomb-Scargle Fourier-transformed spectra with bootstrapping. Results were cross-checked by counting events in the time series. Main outcomes are: First, the propensity of the climate system to fluctuations is a region specific property. Many records of adjacent sites reveal a similar change in variability although they belong to different proxy types (e.g., δ18O, lithic composition). Secondly, at most sites, irreversible change occured in the Mid- Holocene. We suggest that altered ocean circulation together with slightly modified coupling intensity between regional climate subsystems around the 5.5 kyr BP event (termination of the African Humid Period) were responsible for the shift. Fluctuations especially intensified along a pan- American corridor. This may have led to an unequal crisis probability for early human civilizations in the Old and New World. Our study did not produce evidence for millennial scale cyclicity in some solar activity proxies for the Upper Holocene, nor for a privileged role of the prominent 250, 550, 900 and 1450 yr cycles. This lack of global periodicities corroborates the regional character of climate variability.

  11. Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knuth, Kevin H.; Golera, Anthony; Curry, Charles T.; Huyser, Karen A.; Kevin R. Wheeler; Rossow, William B.

    2005-01-01

    The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

  12. Effect of Solar Variability on Earth Climate Patterns.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruzmaikin, A.; Feynman, J.

    2006-12-01

    We discuss the impact of solar variability on the patterns of Earth climate variability. These climate patterns are naturally excited in the noisy atmosphere-ocean dynamical system as deviations (anomalies) from a global (mean) state. The patterns include North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and related Northern Annular Mode (NAM), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An example of a pattern influenced by variations in solar UV irradiance is the NAM, a wintertime climate anomaly with two states corresponding to higher pressure at high latitudes with a band of lower pressure at lower latitudes and the other way round (Thompson &Wallace, 1998). Two states of the NAM arise due to the dynamical interaction of planetary waves and zonal mean wind (Limpasuvan &Hartmann, 2001; Ruzmaikin et al., 2006). The NAM accounts for 23% of atmospheric variability at sea level and about 50% of the variability in the stratosphere. Solar variability affects the NAM and that the influence varies dependent on the phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation and time in the winter season (Ruzmaikin &Feynman, 2002). The temperature pattern (cold in Europe-warm in Greenland) produced by the negative NAM was dominant during the Maunder Minimum of solar activity (Ruzmaikin et al., 2004). We discuss possible physical mechanisms by which solar variability can influence the climate patterns. In particular, we address the Rossby-Palmer hypothesis (Palmer, 1998) that external forcing (in our case solar variability) may affect only the magnitude of the pattern variability without changing its spatial structure. References: Thompson, D. W. J. &J. M. Wallace, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297, 1998; Palmer, T. N., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 1412 1998; Baldwin, M. P. and T. J. Dunkerton, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 30,937, 1999; Limpasuvan, V., &D. Hartmann, J. Climate, 13, 4414, 2001; Ruzmaikin, A., J, Feynman, J. Geophys. Res., 107, D14, 10

  13. The IPCC (1995) scientific assessment of climate change: Observed climate variability and change

    SciTech Connect

    Karl, T.R.

    1996-12-31

    The IPCC (1995) scientific assessment of climate change shows that human activities have increased the concentrations and changed the distributions of greenhouse gases and aerosols during the 19th and 20th Centuries. Questions arise regarding the magnitude and significance of observed changes and variations of temperature, precipitation (and related hydrologic variables), and other important weather events as the atmospheric composition has changed. This assessment addresses the following broad questions: (1) has the climate warmed? (2) has the climate become wetter? (3) has the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changed? (4) has the climate become more variable or extreme? and (5) is the 20th Century warming unusual? Research addressing those questions is briefly summarized. 16 refs., 1 fig.

  14. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability.

    PubMed

    Mora, Camilo; Frazier, Abby G; Longman, Ryan J; Dacks, Rachel S; Walton, Maya M; Tong, Eric J; Sanchez, Joseph J; Kaiser, Lauren R; Stender, Yuko O; Anderson, James M; Ambrosino, Christine M; Fernandez-Silva, Iria; Giuseffi, Louise M; Giambelluca, Thomas W

    2013-10-10

    Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

  15. Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thresher, Ronald E.

    2002-06-01

    Atmospheric circulation in the southern mid-latitudes is dominated by strong circum-Antarctic zonal west winds (ZWW) over the latitude range of 35 to 60°S. These winds exhibit coherent seasonal and interannual variability, which has been related both to Antarctic (e.g. polar ice) and low-latitude climate (e.g. El Niño-southern oscillation) parameters. Historical and recent studies suggest that, at its northern margins, variability in the ZWW also has a marked quasi-decadal component. Analysis of sea-level pressure and rainfall data for the Australian region, South Africa and South America confirms frequent indications of quasi-decadal variability in parameters associated with the ZWW, which appears to be in phase around the hemisphere. This variation broadly correlates with the sunspot cycle, and specifically appears to reflect sunspot-correlated, seasonally modulated shifts in the latitude range each year of the sub-tropical ridge over eastern Australia. Sunspot-correlated variability in the southern mid-latitudes is likely to have substantial effects on temperate climate and ecology and is consistent with recent models of solar effects on upper atmospheric climate, though the mechanisms that link these to winds and rainfall at sea level remain obscure.

  16. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

    PubMed

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-09-15

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

  17. Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1–2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface. PMID:26369503

  18. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    PubMed Central

    Harding, Jr., Lawrence W.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-01-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

  19. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-03-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

  20. Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    SciTech Connect

    Lyons, J.

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ≥ 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

  1. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquín J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can – as a gradual modification of synaptic weights – since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings. PMID:23349664

  2. Chlorella sorokiniana Extract Improves Short-Term Memory in Rats.

    PubMed

    Morgese, Maria Grazia; Mhillaj, Emanuela; Francavilla, Matteo; Bove, Maria; Morgano, Lucia; Tucci, Paolo; Trabace, Luigia; Schiavone, Stefania

    2016-09-29

    Increasing evidence shows that eukaryotic microalgae and, in particular, the green microalga Chlorella, can be used as natural sources to obtain a whole variety of compounds, such as omega (ω)-3 and ω-6 polyunsatured fatty acids (PUFAs). Although either beneficial or toxic effects of Chlorella sorokiniana have been mainly attributed to its specific ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs content, the underlying molecular pathways remain to be elucidated yet. Here, we investigate the effects of an acute oral administration of a lipid extract of Chlorella sorokiniana, containing mainly ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs, on cognitive, emotional and social behaviour in rats, analysing possible underlying neurochemical alterations. Our results showed improved short-term memory in Chlorella sorokiniana-treated rats compared to controls, without any differences in exploratory performance, locomotor activity, anxiety profile and depressive-like behaviour. On the other hand, while the social behaviour of Chlorella sorokiniana-treated animals was significantly decreased, no effects on aggressivity were observed. Neurochemical investigations showed region-specific effects, consisting in an elevation of noradrenaline (NA) and serotonin (5-HT) content in hippocampus, but not in the prefrontal cortex and striatum. In conclusion, our results point towards a beneficial effect of Chlorella sorokiniana extract on short-term memory, but also highlight the need of caution in the use of this natural supplement due to its possible masked toxic effects.

  3. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, third quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the second quarter of 1996, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the third quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  4. Cigarette smoking and short-term addiction treatment outcome.

    PubMed

    Harrell, P T; Montoya, I D; Preston, K L; Juliano, L M; Gorelick, D A

    2011-06-01

    Cigarette smoking is common among patients in cocaine and opioid dependence treatment, and may influence treatment outcome. We addressed this issue in a secondary analysis of data from an outpatient clinical trial of buprenorphine treatment for concurrent cocaine and opioid dependence (13 weeks, N=200). The association between cigarette smoking (lifetime cigarette smoking status, number of cigarettes smoked per day prior to study entry) and short-term treatment outcome (% of urine samples positive for cocaine or opioids, treatment retention) was evaluated with analysis of covariance, bivariate correlations, and multivariate linear regression. Nicotine-dependent smokers (66% of participants) had a significantly higher percentage of cocaine-positive urine samples than non-smokers (12% of participants) (76% vs. 62%), but did not differ in percentage of opioid-positive urine samples or treatment retention. Number of cigarettes smoked per day at baseline was positively associated with percentage of cocaine-positive urine samples, even after controlling for baseline sociodemographic and drug use characteristics, but was not significantly associated with percentage of opioid-positive urine samples or treatment retention. These results suggest that cigarette smoking is associated with poorer short-term outcome of outpatient treatment for cocaine dependence, but perhaps not of concurrent opioid dependence, and support the importance of offering smoking cessation treatment to cocaine-dependent patients.

  5. Short-term extractability of sulfadiazine after application to soils.

    PubMed

    Müller, Tanja; Rosendahl, Ingrid; Focks, Andreas; Siemens, Jan; Klasmeier, Jörg; Matthies, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The long-term environmental fate of the veterinary antibiotic sulfadiazine (SDZ) in soils is determined by a reversible sequestration into a residual fraction and an irreversible formation of non-extractable residues (NER), which can be described as first-order rate processes. However, the concentration dynamics of the resulting fractions of SDZ in soil show an unexplained rapid reduction of extractability during the first 24 h. We therefore investigated the short-term extractability of SDZ in two different soils under different SDZ application procedures over 24 h: with and without manure, for air-dried and for moist soils. In all batches, we observed an instantaneous loss of extractability on a time scale of minutes as well as kinetically determined sequestration and NER formation over 24 h. Data evaluation with a simple kinetic model led to the conclusion that application with manure accelerated the short-term formation of NER, whereas sequestration was very similar for all batches.

  6. Short-Term Effects of Hydrokinesiotherapy in Hospitalized Preterm Newborns

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira Tobinaga, Welcy Cassiano; Abelenda, Vera Lucia Barros; de Sá, Paula Morisco

    2016-01-01

    Background. In the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) environment, preterm newborns are subject to environmental stress and numerous painful interventions. It is known that hydrokinesiotherapy promotes comfort and reduces stress because of the physiological properties of water. Objective. To evaluate the short-term effects of hydrokinesiotherapy on reducing stress in preterm newborns admitted to the NICU. Materials and Methods. Fifteen preterm newborns underwent salivary cortisol measurement, pain evaluation using the Neonatal Infant Pain Scale (NIPS), and heart rate, respiratory rate, and peripheral oxygen saturation measurements before and after the application of hydrokinesiotherapy. Results. The mean gestational age of the newborns was 34.2 ± 1.66 weeks, and the mean weight was 1823.3 ± 437.4 g. Immediately after application of hydrokinesiotherapy, a significant reduction was observed in salivary cortisol (p = 0.004), heart rate (p = 0.003), and respiratory rate (p = 0.004) and a significant increase was observed in peripheral oxygen saturation (p = 0.002). However, no significant difference was observed in the NIPS score (p > 0.05). Conclusion. In the present study, neonatal hydrotherapy promoted short-term relief from feelings of stress. Neonatal hydrokinesiotherapy may be a therapeutic alternative. However, this therapy needs to be studied in randomized, crossover, and blinded trials. This trial is registered with NCT02707731. PMID:27672453

  7. Second-Language Learners' Identification of Target-Language Phonemes: A Short-Term Phonetic Training Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cebrian, Juli; Carlet, Angelica

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effect of short-term high-variability phonetic training on the perception of English /b/, /v/, /d/, /ð/, /ae/, /? /, /i/, and /i/ by Catalan/Spanish bilinguals learning English as a foreign language. Sixteen English-major undergraduates were tested before and after undergoing a four-session perceptual training program…

  8. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

    2012-01-01

    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  9. Deciphering the driving forces of short-term erosion in glacially impacted landscapes, an example from the Western Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotzbach, Christoph; van der Beek, Peter; Carcaillet, Julien; Delunel, Romain

    2013-04-01

    Tectonic uplift is the main driver of long-term erosion, but climate changes can markedly affect the link between tectonics and erosion, causing transient variations in short-term erosion rate. Here we study the driving forces of short-term erosion rates in the French Western Alps as estimated from in-situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and detrital apatite fission-track thermochronology analysis of stream sediments. Short-term erosion rates from 10Be analyses vary between ~0.27 and ~1.33 mm/yr, similar to rates measured in adjacent areas of the Alps. Part of the data scales positively with elevation, while the full dataset shows a significant positive correlation with steepness index of streams and normalized geophysical relief. Mean long-term exhumation and short-term erosion rates are comparable in areas that are exhuming rapidly (>0.4 km/Myr), but short-term rates are on average two-three (and up to six) times higher than long-term rates in areas where the latter are slow (<0.4 km/Myr). These findings are supported by detrital apatite fission-track age distributions that appear to require similar variations in erosion rates. Major glaciations strongly impacted the external part of the Alps, increasing both long-term exhumation rates as well as relief (e.g. Glotzbach et al. 2011; Häuselmann et al. 2007; Valla et al.). Based on our data, it seems that glacial impact in the more slowly eroding internal part is mainly restricted to relief, which is reflected in high transient short-term erosion rates. The data further reveal that normalized steepness index and ridgeline geophysical relief are well correlated with (and could be used as proxies for) short-term erosion, in contrast to slope, corroborating studies in purely fluvial landscapes. Our study demonstrates that climate change, e.g. through occurrence of major glaciations, can markedly perturb landscapes short-term erosion patterns in regions of tectonically controlled long-term exhumation. Glotzbach C., P.A. van

  10. Deciphering the record of short-term base-level changes in Gilbert-type deltas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobo, Katarina; Ghinassi, Massimiliano; Nemec, Wojciech

    2016-04-01

    -front accommodation driven by short-term base-level changes, with some accompanying inevitable 'noise' in the facies record due to the system autogenic variability and regional climatic fluctuations. Comparison of delta coeval foreset and toeset/bottomset deposits in a delta shows further a reverse pattern of reciprocal changes in facies assemblages, with the TFA assemblage of foreset deposits passing downdip into a DFA assemblage of delta-foot deposits, and the DFA assemblage of foreset deposits passing downdip into a TFA assemblage. This reverse reciprocal alternation of TFA and DFA facies assemblages is attributed to the delta-slope own morphodynamics. When the delta slope is dominated by deposition of debrisflows, only the most diluted turbulent flows and chute bypassing turbidity currents are reaching the delta-foot zone. When the delta slope is dominated by turbiditic sedimentation, larger chutes and gullies form - triggering and conveying debrisflows to the foot zone. These case studies as a whole shed a new light on the varying pattern of subaqueous sediment dispersal processes in an evolving Gilbert-type deltaic system and point to an the attractive possibility of the recognition of a 'hidden' record of base-level changes on the basis of detailed facies analysis.

  11. Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability

  12. Assessing the associative deficit of older adults in long-term and short-term/working memory.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tina; Naveh-Benjamin, Moshe

    2012-09-01

    Older adults exhibit a deficit in associative long-term memory relative to younger adults. However, the literature is inconclusive regarding whether this deficit is attenuated in short-term/working memory. To elucidate the issue, three experiments assessed younger and older adults' item and interitem associative memory and the effects of several variables that might potentially contribute to the inconsistent pattern of results in previous studies. In Experiment 1, participants were tested on item and associative recognition memory with both long-term and short-term retention intervals in a single, continuous recognition paradigm. There was an associative deficit for older adults in the short-term and long-term intervals. Using only short-term intervals, Experiment 2 utilized mixed and blocked test designs to examine the effect of test event salience. Blocking the test did not attenuate the age-related associative deficit seen in the mixed test blocks. Finally, an age-related associative deficit was found in Experiment 3, under both sequential and simultaneous presentation conditions. Even while accounting for some methodological issues, the associative deficit of older adults is evident in short-term/working memory.

  13. Detection of the response of ozone in the middle atmosphere to short-term solar ultraviolet variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keating, G. M.; Brasseur, G. P.; de Rudder, A.; Nicholson, J. Y., III

    1985-07-01

    The response of ozone to solar UV variation is determined in the middle atmosphere between the heights of 10 and 0.2 mb. The definitive isolation of the smaller variations associated with short-term solar variability is accomplished only after removal of the larger changes of ozone related to temperature variations. Using this approach the correlation coefficients between detrended ozone (Nimbus 7 LIMS) and short-term 205 nm solar variation (Nimbus 7 SBUV) are found to be much higher (0.9) than achieved in previous studies. The theoretical response time and amplitude of response of ozone in the middle atmosphere to observed short-term solar UV variations is found to be in good agreement with observations, except near 0.2 mb. The corresponding long-term response over the solar cycle is also estimated.

  14. Impacts of Short-Term Solar Power Forecasts in System Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Ibanez, Eduardo; Krad, Ibrahim; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Ela, Erik

    2016-05-05

    Solar generation is experiencing an exponential growth in power systems worldwide and, along with wind power, is posing new challenges to power system operations. Those challenges are characterized by an increase of system variability and uncertainty across many time scales: from days, down to hours, minutes, and seconds. Much of the research in the area has focused on the effect of solar forecasting across hours or days. This paper presents a methodology to capture the effect of short-term forecasting strategies and analyzes the economic and reliability implications of utilizing a simple, yet effective forecasting method for solar PV in intra-day operations.

  15. A COMPARISON OF WINTER SHORT-TERM AND ANNUAL AVERAGE RADON MEASUREMENTS IN BASEMENTS OF A RADON-PRONE REGION AND EVALUATION OF FURTHER RADON TESTING INDICATORS

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Nirmalla G.; Steck, Daniel J.; Field, R. William

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the temporal variability between basement winter short-term (7 to 10 days) and basement annual radon measurements. Other objectives were to test the short-term measurement’s diagnostic performance at two reference levels and to evaluate its ability to predict annual average basement radon concentrations. Electret ion chamber (short-term) and alpha track (annual) radon measurements were obtained by trained personnel in Iowa residences. Overall, the geometric mean of the short-term radon concentrations (199 Bq m−3) was slightly greater than the geometric mean of the annual radon concentrations (181 Bq m−3). Short-term tests incorrectly predicted that the basement annual radon concentrations would be below 148 Bq m−3 12% of the time and 2% of the time at 74 Bq m−3. The short-term and annual radon concentrations were strongly correlated (r=0.87, p<0.0001). The foundation wall material of the basement was the only significant factor to have an impact on the absolute difference between the short-term and annual measurements. The findings from this study provide evidence of a substantially lower likelihood of obtaining a false negative result from a single short-term test in a region with high indoor radon potential when the reference level is lowered to 74 Bq m−3. PMID:24670901

  16. A comparison of winter short-term and annual average radon measurements in basements of a radon-prone region and evaluation of further radon testing indicators.

    PubMed

    Barros, Nirmalla G; Steck, Daniel J; Field, R William

    2014-05-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the temporal variability between basement winter short-term (7 to 10 d) and basement annual radon measurements. Other objectives were to test the short-term measurement's diagnostic performance at two reference levels and to evaluate its ability to predict annual average basement radon concentrations. Electret ion chamber (short-term) and alpha track (annual) radon measurements were obtained by trained personnel in Iowa residences. Overall, the geometric mean of the short-term radon concentrations (199 Bq m) was slightly greater than the geometric mean of the annual radon concentrations (181 Bq m). Short-term tests correctly predicted annual radon concentrations to be above the 148 Bq m action level 88% of the time and above a 74 Bq m level 98% of the time. The short-term and annual radon concentrations were strongly correlated (r = 0.87, p < 0.0001). The foundation wall material of the basement was the only significant factor to have an impact on the absolute difference between the short-term and annual measurements. The findings from this study provide evidence of a substantially lower likelihood of obtaining a false negative result from a single short-term test in a region with high indoor radon potential when the reference level is lowered to 74 Bq m.

  17. Variable Effects of Climate on Forest Growth in Relation to Climate Extremes, Disturbance, and Forest Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-02-09

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  18. Partitioning interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange between climatic variability and functional change.

    PubMed

    Hui, Dafeng; Luo, Yiqi; Katul, Gabriel

    2003-05-01

    Interannual variability (IAV) in net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) is a critical factor in projections of future ecosystem changes. However, our understanding of IAV is limited because of the difficulty in isolating its numerous causes. We proposed that IAV in NEE is primarily caused by climatic variability, through its direct effects on photosynthesis and respiration and through its indirect effects on carbon fluxes (i.e., the parameters that govern photosynthesis and respiration), hereafter called functional change. We employed a homogeneity-of-slopes model to identify the functional change contributing to IAV in NEE and nighttime ecosystem respiration (RE). The model uses multiple regression analysis to relate NEE and RE with climatic variables for individual years and for all years. If the use of different slopes for each year significantly improves the model fitting compared to the use of one slope for all years, we consider that functional change exists, at least on annual time scales. With the functional change detected, we then partition the observed variation in NEE or RE to four components, namely, the functional change, the direct effect of interannual climatic variability, the direct effect of seasonal climatic variation, and random error. Application of this approach to a data set collected at the Duke Forest AmeriFlux site from August 1997 to December 2001 indicated that functional change, interannual climatic variability, seasonal climatic variation and random error explained 9.9, 8.9, 59.9 and 21.3%, respectively, of the observed variation in NEE and 13.1, 5.0, 38.1 and 43.8%, respectively, of the observed variation in RE.

  19. Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, R.L.; Del Genio, A.D. )

    1994-09-01

    Simulations of natural variability by two GCMs are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and SST vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a [open quotes]red[close quotes] spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out ENSO and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone. 28 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

    1994-01-01

    Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

  1. Holocene Climatic Variability in the Indian Monsoon Domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Praveen Kumar; Anoop, Ambili; Menzel, Philip; Gaye, Birgit; Basavaiah, Nathani; Jehangir, Arshid; Prasad, Sushma

    2013-04-01

    The available data on Holocene climate variability from Asia indicates spatio-temporal changes in the precipitation over this vast region. Detailed information on the timing, duration, regionality, and causes of these fluctuations is not well understood, especially over the Indian subcontinent. My work focuses on long core sediments from lake Tso Moriri (78°14'-78°25'N and 32°40'-33°02'E; altitude: 4500 m) situated in climatically sensitive zone of NW Himalayas affected by both mid-latitude westerlies and Indian summer monsoon. Two cores ca.7 m were retrieved from the lake at different water depths (ca. 40m and 105m) in July 2011. Investigations reveal marked changes in grain size, lamination quality, mineralogy, organic and carbonate content suggesting changes in lake level, direction of inflow, and biological productivity that in turn are influenced by regional climate. As the lake lies in a tectonically active region, I have also undertaken detailed geomorphometric (knick-point, Hack index), and drainage pattern analysis of the major inflowing streams to decipher the active tectonics in the region. Sharp changes in river course and slope gradient indicates the presence of an active N-S trending fault in western flank of the lake. The data from lake Tso Moriri will be compared with other high-resolution records from lake Lonar and stalagmites in NE India to reconstruct the forcing mechanism of Holocene climatic variability.

  2. Natural climate variabilities and Antarctic sea ice trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The interannual Antarctic sea ice variability in Indian Ocean shares a large portion of variance with Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and that in Ross Sea with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). If we regress out the influence of these climate modes from the sectorial sea ice extent time series, the expanding sea ice trends in the satellite era become insignificant at 95 %. Because SAM has a human-induced trend, the increasing sea ice extent in Indian Ocean may be explained by superposition of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability. On the other hand, because ENSO does not have a significant trend, the sea ice trend in Ross Sea might be produced purely by natural variability. In addition to SAM and ENSO, some residual sea ice variances can be explained by other modes, which are not simultaneously-correlated with SAM or ENSO. For instance, a wave-like mode that appears to be Rossby wave trains shares large variance with interannual sea ice variability in many longitudinal sectors. The spatial trend pattern reconstructed by the Rossby mode exhibits consistent features with the ice motion trend pattern shown by Holland and Kwok (2012). These results, based on observational and reanalysis data, suggest that a large portion of expanding trend of Antarctic sea ice may be explained by natural climate variability.

  3. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2016-06-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse ~1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to ~0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  4. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  5. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.

    PubMed

    Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

    2015-03-07

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.

  6. Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

    PubMed Central

    Kingsolver, Joel G.; Buckley, Lauren B.

    2015-01-01

    How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. PMID:25631995

  7. Sensory evoked potentials to predict short-term progression of disability in multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Margaritella, N; Mendozzi, L; Garegnani, M; Colicino, E; Gilardi, E; Deleonardis, L; Tronci, F; Pugnetti, L

    2012-08-01

    To devise a multivariate parametric model for short-term prediction of disability using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and multimodal sensory EP (mEP). A total of 221 multiple sclerosis (MS) patients who underwent repeated mEP and EDSS assessments at variable time intervals over a 20-year period were retrospectively analyzed. Published criteria were used to compute a cumulative score (mEPS) of abnormalities for each of 908 individual tests. Data of a statistically balanced sample of 58 patients were fed to a parametrical regression analysis using time-lagged EDSS and mEPS along with other clinical variables to estimate future EDSS scores at 1 year. Whole sample cross-sectional mEPS were moderately correlated with EDSS, whereas longitudinal mEPS were not. Using the regression model, lagged mEPS and lagged EDSS along with clinical variables provided better future EDSS estimates. The R (2) measure of fit was significant and 72% of EDSS estimates showed an error value of ±0.5. A parametrical regression model combining EDSS and mEPS accurately predicts short-term disability in MS patients and could be used to optimize decisions concerning treatment.

  8. Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

  9. Short-term Cost of Suicides in India

    PubMed Central

    Poduri, Gopala Sarma

    2016-01-01

    Background: India is experiencing increasing suicides that have much economic impact. Objective: To calculate the short-term costs of suicide in India. Materials and Methods: All the official data of suicides in India in 2014 formed the base of computation. Both direct and indirect costs were computed basing on market rates and official estimates. Perceived gains were deducted to arrive at the total cost. Results: The contribution of middle age group in the loss was high. Each suicide costs 2.65 L and the total cost of suicide in 2014 amounts to 348842.65 L in the first year. Conclusion: Much suffering and burden on individuals, family, and society can be reduced if adequate treatment facilities for psychiatry patients are made available at affordable rates everywhere. This should be complemented by much needed public education. PMID:28031587