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Sample records for short-term climate variability

  1. EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

    SciTech Connect

    Joseph H. Hartman

    1999-09-01

    This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join these various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern

  2. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for

  3. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moeller, Christopher C.; Gunshor, Mathew M.; Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan D.; Rouse, Lawrence J.; Frey, Herbert V. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact

  4. Floods and Droughts in Africa: Relation to Short-term Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkett, C. M.

    2004-12-01

    The overall goal of this project is to utilize predicted sea surface temperature (SST) together with near-real time remote sensing tools, to aid in the forecast of regional drought and flood. The focus of the study is centered on the African continent for the time period ~1900-2002. There are several objectives, i) To utilize the surface status of water as a proxy indicator of precipitation and as a direct measure of hydrological drought and flood, ii) To derive this surface water status, using historical records and recent remote sensing data, for a selection of geographically distributed target sites, and to seek correlations between the data and known drought/flood episodes, iii) To examine the relationships between drought/flood episodes and short-term climate events, and iv) To deduce the vulnerability of these regions to short-term climatic events and to determine the future role of combined satellite data and predictive SST forecasts. Surface water is that defined by the level or areal status of lakes, rivers and wetlands. Here, we present results from a remote sensing survey of the continent, revealing time series of water-level variations over the 1990's decade. This has been undertaken by the application of satellite radar altimetry using the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS mission data. This survey contains validation results for ERS-derived elevations and a study of ERS instrument performance. Inter-comparison of these ERS and T/P results with preliminary elevation data from the ENVISAT mission is also shown. In addition, a survey of the decade's outbreaks of floods and droughts is reported and correlations between these conditions and the remote sensing observations are presented as the second stage of this multi-year project.

  5. Sometimes processes don't matter: the general effect of short term climate variability on erosional systems.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

    2017-04-01

    Climatic forcing undoubtedly plays an important role in shaping the Earth's surface. However, precisely how climate affects erosion rates, landscape morphology and the sedimentary record is highly debated. Recently there has been a focus on the influence of short-term variability in rainfall and river discharge on the relationship between climate and erosion rates. Here, we present a simple probabilistic argument, backed by modelling, that demonstrates that the way the Earth's surface responds to short-term climatic forcing variability is primarily determined by the existence and magnitude of erosional thresholds. We find that it is the ratio between the threshold magnitude and the mean magnitude of climatic forcing that determines whether variability matters or not and in which way. This is a fundamental result that applies regardless of the nature of the erosional process. This means, for example, that we can understand the role that discharge variability plays in determining fluvial erosion efficiency despite doubts about the processes involved in fluvial erosion. We can use this finding to reproduce the main conclusions of previous studies on the role of discharge variability in determining long-term fluvial erosion efficiency. Many aspects of the landscape known to influence discharge variability are affected by human activity, such as land use and river damming. Another important control on discharge variability, rainfall intensity, is also expected to increase with warmer temperatures. Among many other implications, our findings help provide a general framework to understand and predict the response of the Earth's surface to changes in mean and variability of rainfall and river discharge associated with the anthropogenic activity. In addition, the process independent nature of our findings suggest that previous work on river discharge variability and erosion thresholds can be applied to other erosional systems.

  6. Recurring flood distribution patterns related to short-term Holocene climatic variability.

    PubMed

    Benito, Gerardo; Macklin, Mark G; Panin, Andrei; Rossato, Sandro; Fontana, Alessandro; Jones, Anna F; Machado, Maria J; Matlakhova, Ekaterina; Mozzi, Paolo; Zielhofer, Christoph

    2015-11-09

    Millennial- and multi-centennial scale climate variability during the Holocene has been well documented, but its impact on the distribution and timing of extreme river floods has yet to be established. Here we present a meta-analysis of more than 2000 radiometrically dated flood units to reconstruct centennial-scale Holocene flood episodes in Europe and North Africa. Our data analysis shows a general increase in flood frequency after 5000 cal. yr BP consistent with a weakening in zonal circulation over the second half of the Holocene, and with an increase in winter insolation. Multi-centennial length phases of flooding in UK and central Europe correspond with periods of minimum solar irradiance, with a clear trend of increasing flood frequency over the last 1000 years. Western Mediterranean regions show synchrony of flood episodes associated with negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation that are out-of-phase with those evident within the eastern Mediterranean. This long-term flood record reveals complex but geographically highly interconnected climate-flood relationships, and provides a new framework to understand likely future spatial changes of flood frequency.

  7. Recurring flood distribution patterns related to short-term Holocene climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Benito, Gerardo; Macklin, Mark G.; Panin, Andrei; Rossato, Sandro; Fontana, Alessandro; Jones, Anna F.; Machado, Maria J.; Matlakhova, Ekaterina; Mozzi, Paolo; Zielhofer, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Millennial- and multi-centennial scale climate variability during the Holocene has been well documented, but its impact on the distribution and timing of extreme river floods has yet to be established. Here we present a meta-analysis of more than 2000 radiometrically dated flood units to reconstruct centennial-scale Holocene flood episodes in Europe and North Africa. Our data analysis shows a general increase in flood frequency after 5000 cal. yr BP consistent with a weakening in zonal circulation over the second half of the Holocene, and with an increase in winter insolation. Multi-centennial length phases of flooding in UK and central Europe correspond with periods of minimum solar irradiance, with a clear trend of increasing flood frequency over the last 1000 years. Western Mediterranean regions show synchrony of flood episodes associated with negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation that are out-of-phase with those evident within the eastern Mediterranean. This long-term flood record reveals complex but geographically highly interconnected climate-flood relationships, and provides a new framework to understand likely future spatial changes of flood frequency. PMID:26549043

  8. The Role of Central and High Asia in Northern Hemisphere Short-term Climate Variability - a Paleoclimate Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalett, B.; Oches, E. A.; Lai, Z.; Endlicher, W.

    2010-12-01

    Past and present climate dynamics, i.e. large-scale ocean circulation and coupled synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns, associated with the Eurasian continent are well studied and receive ongoing scientific interest. However, the impact of intrahemispheric-scale climate variability on the entire Eurasian landmass, as well as the self-generated effects of the continent on the global climate system, is still a matter of considerable debate. While western Atlantic polar and tropical air masses penetrate into the continent and are modified and transformed as they cross Eurasia, the interior regions of Eurasia strongly influence Earth’s climate system. Significant cooling and heating of Central and High Asia (Tibetan Plateau) drive interactions between atmosphere and ocean processes and regulate teleconnection patterns of the Northern Hemisphere. This paper utilizes high resolution particle size analyses from the Central Asian loess sequence at Remisowka, Kazakhstan, to reconstruct the dynamics of past synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns and aeolian dust transport within interior Eurasia since the onset of the last interglacial period. The observed dynamics in aeolian dust transport (particle size record) closely mirror δ18O and fine dust variations seen in Greenland ice cores, suggesting a correlation with short-term climate oscillations (Dansgaard-Oeschger - DO events) recorded therein. An Asian origin of fine aeolian dust preserved in Greenland ice cores has been discussed previously, and recent papers reveal a close link between Central and East Asian aeolian dust dynamics and DO events recorded in Greenland ice cores. The onsets of individual DO events were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition [e.g., Steffensen et al. (2008), Science 321]. In this context, our data represent the first Central Asian aeolian dust record in which DO events are recorded, providing a means to verify hypothesized links between short-term climate

  9. Long Term Seasonality Changes and Short Term Climate Variability Recorded in Eurasian Loess: Examples from Serbia, Romania, Kazakhstan, and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalett, B.; Oches, E. A.; Haam, E.; Lai, Z. P.; Endlicher, W.

    2012-04-01

    the dust transport record from numerous sites across Eurasia, the data reveal distinct differences in short-term climate variability along the studied transect from SE Europe over Central Asia to China. In Central and East Asia the observed dynamics in aeolian dust transport closely mirror δ18O and fine dust variations seen in Greenland ice cores, suggesting a correlation with short-term climate oscillations (DO events) recorded therein. An Asian origin of fine aeolian dust preserved in Greenland ice cores has been discussed previously, and recent papers reveal a close link between Asian aeolian dust dynamics and DO events recorded in Greenland ice cores. In this context, the presented data represent the first Central and East Asian aeolian dust records in which DO events are recorded, providing a means to verify hypothesized links between short-term climate variability recorded in Greenland and associated climate dynamics at Asian dust source areas. Ultimately, the data extend existing theories, suggesting that the Central and High Asian mountains are a crucial element within the sensitive glacier-desert-dust response system in interior Eurasia and may be considered a pacemaker of suborbital global climate changes and an initiator of abrupt climate oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere.

  10. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  11. Social Memory of Short-term and Long-term Variability in the Sahelian Climate

    Treesearch

    Roderick J. McIntosh

    2006-01-01

    The 170,000 km2 interior floodplain of the Middle Niger (Mali) is a tight mosaic of alluvial and desert microenvironments. The interannual to intermillennial climate change profiles of this fluvial anomaly thrust deep into the Sahel and southern Sahara are masterpieces of abrupt phase shifts and unpredictability. Response has been of two kinds. The Office du Niger was...

  12. Short Term Exogenic Climate Change Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krahenbuhl, Daniel

    Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

  13. Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

    2015-05-01

    A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

  14. Tree ring isotopes of beech and spruce in response to short-term climate variability across Central European sites: Common and contrasting physiological mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigt, Rosemarie; Klesse, Stefan; Treydte, Kerstin; Frank, David; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf T. W.

    2016-04-01

    The combined study of tree-ring width and stable C and O isotopes provides insight in the coherences between carbon allocation during stem growth and the preceding conditions of gas exchange and formation of photosynthates as all influenced by environmental variation. In this large-scale study comprising 10 sites across a range of climate gradients (temperature, precipitation) throughout Central Europe, we investigated tree-rings in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) trees. The sampling design included larger and smaller trees. The short-term, i.e. year-to-year, variability in the isotope time series over 100 yrs was analyzed in relation to tree-ring growth and climate variation. The generally strong correlation between the year-to-year differences in δ13C (corrected for the atmospheric shift due to 13C-depleted CO2 from fossil combustion) and δ18O across most sites emphasized the role of stomatal conductance in controlling leaf gas exchange. However, the correlation between both isotopes decreased during some periods. At several sites this reduction in correlation was particularly pronounced during recent decades. This suggests a decoupling between stomatal and photosynthetic responses to environmental conditions on the one hand, and carbon allocation to stem tissue on the other hand. Variability in the isotopic ratio largely responded to summer climate, but was weakly correlated to annual stem growth. In contrast, climate sensitivity of radial growth in both species was rather site-dependent, and was strongest at the driest (in terms of soil water capacity) site. We will also present results of isotope responses with respect to extreme climate events. Understanding the underlying physiological mechanisms controlling the short-term variation in tree-ring signals will help to assess and more precisely constrain the possible range of growth performance of these ecologically and economically important tree species under future climate

  15. Impacts of long- and short-term climate variability on terrestrial biogenic emissions and their influence on the remote tropical troposphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monks, S. A.; Arnold, S.; Guenther, A. B.; Emmons, L. K.; Carpenter, L.; Read, K.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial vegetation emits a wide range of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) into the atmosphere (~1150 TgC/yr), which accounts for ~90% of total VOC surface emissions. Emissions of BVOC are largely dependent on environmental factors such as sunlight and temperature, which makes them sensitive to both long-term and short-term changes in the climate system. ENSO is well-known to have global impacts on temperature and precipitation, and therefore has the potential to impact regional BVOC emissions on inter-annual time-scales. In addition to this, increased global mean temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past few decades may also have affected BVOC emissions. Once in the atmosphere, these compounds have the ability to influence global and regional atmospheric chemistry and climate through impacts on the hydroxyl radical, ozone, particulate matter and methane lifetime. We use the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2) to investigate both long-term changes and inter-annual variability of BVOC emissions over a 50-year period at regional and global spatial-scales. This is done by considering the impacts of increasing temperatures and CO2 concentrations on long-term emissions of BVOC separately, in addition to using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to investigate the regional response in emissions due to natural ENSO variability. Global composites of ENSO-positive and ENSO-negative phase emissions are then used to drive global atmospheric chemistry simulations using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). Through comparisons with 6 years of measurements from the Cape Verde observatory in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, we explore the role of inter-annual variability in terrestrial biogenic emissions in controlling the observed variability in methanol, acetone and acetaldehyde in the remote tropical atmosphere. By accounting for inter-annual changes in

  16. Asymmetric features of short-term blood pressure variability.

    PubMed

    Guzik, Przemyslaw; Piskorski, Jaroslaw; Krauze, Tomasz; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Wykretowicz, Andrzej; Wysocki, Henryk

    2010-11-01

    Prolongations of cardiac cycles have a significantly larger contribution to short-term heart rate variability than shortenings--this is called heart rate asymmetry. Our aim is to establish the existence of blood pressure asymmetry phenomenon, which has not been done so far. We used 30-min resting continuous recordings of finger pressure waveforms from 227 healthy young volunteers (19-31 years old; 97 female), and performed Poincaré plot analysis of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to quantify the effect. Median contribution of SBP increases (C(i)) to short-term blood pressure variability was 52.8% (inter-quartile range: 50.9-55.1%) and median number of SBP increases (N(i)) was 48.8% (inter-quartile range: 47.2-50.1%). The C(i)>50% was found in 82% (P<0.0001; binomial test) and N(i)<50% in 75% (P<0.0001) of the subjects. Although SBP increases are significantly less abundant than reductions, their contribution to short-term blood pressure variability is significantly larger, which means that short-term blood pressure variability is asymmetric. SBP increases and reductions have unequal contribution to short-term blood pressure variability at supine rest in young healthy people. As this asymmetric behavior of blood pressure variability is present in most of the healthy studied people at rest, it can be concluded that blood pressure asymmetry is a physiological phenomenon.

  17. Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008-2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion.

    PubMed

    Liao, Jiaqiang; Yu, Shicheng; Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

    2016-01-01

    Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008-2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse "V" shape and "V" shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across

  18. Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

    2016-01-01

    Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic

  19. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

    Treesearch

    Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

    2016-01-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

  20. Local short-term variability in solar irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.; Heinemann, Detlev

    2016-05-01

    Characterizing spatiotemporal irradiance variability is important for the successful grid integration of increasing numbers of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Using 1 Hz data recorded by as many as 99 pyranometers during the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE), we analyze field variability of clear-sky index k* (i.e., irradiance normalized to clear-sky conditions) and sub-minute k* increments (i.e., changes over specified intervals of time) for distances between tens of meters and about 10 km. By means of a simple classification scheme based on k* statistics, we identify overcast, clear, and mixed sky conditions, and demonstrate that the last of these is the most potentially problematic in terms of short-term PV power fluctuations. Under mixed conditions, the probability of relatively strong k* increments of ±0.5 is approximately twice as high compared to increment statistics computed without conditioning by sky type. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation structures of k* increment fields differ considerably between sky types. While the profiles for overcast and clear skies mostly resemble the predictions of a simple model published by , this is not the case for mixed conditions. As a proxy for the smoothing effects of distributed PV, we finally show that spatial averaging mitigates variability in k* less effectively than variability in k* increments, for a spatial sensor density of 2 km-2.

  1. Finding Short-Term Variability in Methanol Masers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonin, Samuel; Barott, W. C.; Catanach, T.

    2012-05-01

    The Allen Telescope Array (ATA) performed 53 observations of 6.7 GHz methanol masers between July 2010 and January 2011 in an effort to identify short-timescale variability. With the notable exception of Weisberg et al. (2005), few analyses have been performed analyzing variability in masers on timescales of minutes or less. This work is aimed both at providing additional data (including refined positions) on the catalog of observed sources as well as identifying the prevalence and cause of short-term phenomena. Observations utilized both the ATA correlator (for mapping) and beamformer (for recording voltage time series). A combination of Fast-Fourier Transforms and Continuous Wavelet Transforms are applied to channelized power series waterfalls) in this investigation. Wavelet analysis can be thought of as a generalization of Fourier analysis that allows us to examine non-stationary characteristics of the spectra. The survey included both short (10 minute), long (60 minute), and follow-up observations on candidate targets. Analysis so far has identified three variable sources out of 43 distinct objects that were observed. These objects exhibit significant variation on the order of several minutes, are consistent in follow-up observations, and we have ruled out instrumental variation. Future and ongoing work includes identifying the source of this variation as intrinsic to the source or a property of the ISM. Shorter time-scales will be investigated using a combination of techniques, including total power variation, pulse searching (in an attempt to find pulsars), and phase-shift demodulation techniques. The case for SETI analysis of these data is given, for example, by Cordes (1993), who suggested that extraterrestrial intelligences could use masers to amplify interstellar signals.This project was funded by the National Science Foundation Grant AST0852095. [1] Weisberg J. M. et al. (2005) Science, 309, 5731. [2] Cordes J. M. (1993) Astron. Soc. Pacific Conf. Series

  2. Short-Term Variability on the Scotian Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenan, B.; Petrie, B.; Harrison, G.; Oakey, N.; Strain, P.

    2002-12-01

    The traditional view of the production cycle on the continental shelf of Nova Scotia features a spring bloom followed by a period of low production and a less intense fall bloom. The annual cycle of primary productivity thus has a large, low frequency component. However, there is increasing evidence that the production cycle has significant variability on shorter time scales. Physical, chemical and biological variability on the Scotian Shelf is examined on a daily to weekly timescale. This is accomplished through the use of a newly developed mooring platform (SeaHorse) that uses surface wave energy to enable the instrument to climb down the mooring wire and then float upwards while sampling the water column. This provides bi-hourly profiles of temperature, salinity, pressure and chlorophyll at one location over month-long periods. Results from the three-week deployment in October 2000 indicate a subsurface chlorophyll maximum below the pycnocline during the first part of the time series. An event occurred in mid-October during which the temperature, salinity and density iso-surfaces rose approximately 25 m. During this event, a small bloom, with peak chlorophyll concentrations of about 2 mg m-3 and duration of several days, began as nutrients were brought into the upper part of the water column by upwelling-favorable winds. SeaWiFS ocean color satellite images were valuable in providing a spatial context for chlorophyll concentrations, however, the lack of temporal resolution due to poor quality images means that this data set provided limited information for short-term chlorophyll variability. Gradient Richardson Numbers were estimated for 2 m vertical bins using SeaHorse CTD data and nearby ADCP current measurements. A trend of decreasing Ri in the ocean mixed layer with increasing surface wind stress is suggested.

  3. Reducing variability in short term orbital lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebschull, Christopher; Flegel, Sven Kevin; Braun, Vitali; Gelhaus, Johannes; Möckel, Marek; Wiedemann, Carsten; Vörsmann, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Within the last year three major re-entries occurred. The satellites UARS, ROSAT and Phobos-Grunt entered Earth's atmosphere with fragments reaching the surface. Due to a number of uncertainties in propagating an object's trajectory the exact place and time of a satellite's re-entry is hard to determine. Major influences when predicting the re-entry time are the changing precision of the available orbital data, the satellite's ballistic coefficient, the activity of the sun which influences the Earth's atmosphere and the underlying quality of the atmospheric model. In this paper a method is presented which can reduce the variability in short-term orbital lifetime prediction induced by fluctuating orbital data accuracies. A re-entry campaign is used as a reference for this purpose. For a window of a few weeks before the re-entry the position data of a synthetic object is disturbed considering different degrees of orbital data errors. As a result different predictions will exist for the generated position data of a given day. Using a regression algorithm on the available data an average position is obtained, which is then used for the orbital lifetime prediction. The effect of this measure is a more consistent prediction of the orbital lifetime. The paper concludes with the comparison of the generated re-entry windows in various test cases for the original and the averaged data.

  4. Short-term Variability of Extinction by Broadband Stellar Photometry

    SciTech Connect

    Musat, I.C.; Ellingson, R.G.

    2005-03-18

    Aerosol optical depth variation over short-term time intervals is determined from broadband observations of stars with a whole sky imager. The main difficulty in such measurements consists of accurately separating the star flux value from the non-stellar diffuse skylight. Using correction method to overcome this difficulty, the monochromatic extinction at the ground due to aerosols is extracted from heterochromatic measurements. A form of closure is achieved by comparison with simultaneous or temporally close measurements with other instruments, and the total error of the method, as a combination of random error of measurements and systematic error of calibration and model, is assessed as being between 2.6 and 3% rms.

  5. Acute psychological stress induces short-term variable immune response.

    PubMed

    Breen, Michael S; Beliakova-Bethell, Nadejda; Mujica-Parodi, Lilianne R; Carlson, Joshua M; Ensign, Wayne Y; Woelk, Christopher H; Rana, Brinda K

    2016-03-01

    In spite of advances in understanding the cross-talk between the peripheral immune system and the brain, the molecular mechanisms underlying the rapid adaptation of the immune system to an acute psychological stressor remain largely unknown. Conventional approaches to classify molecular factors mediating these responses have targeted relatively few biological measurements or explored cross-sectional study designs, and therefore have restricted characterization of stress-immune interactions. This exploratory study analyzed transcriptional profiles and flow cytometric data of peripheral blood leukocytes with physiological (endocrine, autonomic) measurements collected throughout the sequence of events leading up to, during, and after short-term exposure to physical danger in humans. Immediate immunomodulation to acute psychological stress was defined as a short-term selective up-regulation of natural killer (NK) cell-associated cytotoxic and IL-12 mediated signaling genes that correlated with increased cortisol, catecholamines and NK cells into the periphery. In parallel, we observed down-regulation of innate immune toll-like receptor genes and genes of the MyD88-dependent signaling pathway. Correcting gene expression for an influx of NK cells revealed a molecular signature specific to the adrenal cortex. Subsequently, focusing analyses on discrete groups of coordinately expressed genes (modules) throughout the time-series revealed immune stress responses in modules associated to immune/defense response, response to wounding, cytokine production, TCR signaling and NK cell cytotoxicity which differed between males and females. These results offer a spring-board for future research towards improved treatment of stress-related disease including the impact of stress on cardiovascular and autoimmune disorders, and identifies an immune mechanism by which vulnerabilities to these diseases may be gender-specific.

  6. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  7. Control group response variability in short-term toxicity tests

    SciTech Connect

    Gast, L.C.; Shimp, C.; Wang, Q.; Shukla, R.; Fulk, F.

    1995-12-31

    The US EPA`s National Reference Toxicant Database (NRTDB) has afforded an excellent opportunity to examine and document variability in responses within control groups (i.e. zero concentration of the toxicant.) The NRTDB has compiled acute and chronic reference toxicant test results for eight species and currently contains results for 32 laboratories and generally eight to ten tests for a species within each laboratory. The Ceriodaphnia dubia Survival and Reproduction test and the Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow) Survival and Growth test are the most frequently represented chronic tests with 331 and 144 sets of test data, respectively. For this presentation, Ceriodaphnia dubia reproduction data, expressed as total numbers of young in the test period, and fathead minnow survival and growth data were analyzed using a variance components model. The information regarding the control population is useful in examining the sources of inter and intralaboratory variability of chronic testing. In addition, this control population response variability information will be valuable for characterizing what can be termed as ``practically equivalent responses`` between a control and an effluent. The preliminary analysis indicates considerable between-test variability; however, this variability is not consistent across laboratories. Results of further exploration on this issue will be presented.

  8. Short-term heart rate variability in young athletes.

    PubMed

    Aubert, A E; Beckers, F; Ramaekers, D

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether the type of training in a young population differentiates heart rate variability parameters between athlete groups and sedentary subjects. The effect of different types of physical training on heart rate variability was evaluated in 10 aerobic trained athletes, in 7 anaerobic trained athletes, in 7 rugby players (mixed type training) and in 10 sedentary control subjects. All groups were age matched (18-34 years). Electrocardiogram tracings were recorded digitally in the supine position and standing position. Measures of heart rate variability were obtained, from both time- and frequency analysis of 10 min resting heart rate. After these tests, blood pressure was measured using an automatic inflation cuff. Resting heart rate was lower in aerobic and mixed type athletes compared to controls. Only aerobic athletes had evidence of increased vagal activity in the time domain compared with control subjects (increased SDNN supine, increased rMSSD supine and standing and pNN50 standing). In the frequency domain, aerobic athletes presented with both higher low-frequency and high-frequency power in the standing position and low-frequency power in the supine position compared to controls. It can be concluded that heart rate variability is affected by chronic exercise, especially in endurance trained athletes. This infers that especially aerobic exercising can have beneficial effects on the cardiovascular risk profile.

  9. Short-Term Spectroscopic Variability of WC9 Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desforges, S.; St-Louis, N.; Chené, A.-N.

    2012-12-01

    We present a preliminary report of a monitoring campaign in the optical of nine presumably single WC9 stars. Large-scale line profile variability is present for each star of our sample. We measured the radial velocities, equivalent widths, skewness, and kurtosis of the C III λ5696 line for each spectrum in order to search for periods that could indicate the presence of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the stellar wind or an undetected companion. Our goal is to determine the origin of the spectroscopic variability and to provide new information on the dust formation process in single WC9 stars. We detect a period of 4.5 ± 0.3 days in the radial velocity curve of WR 103 with an obvious anti-correlation between the skewness and radial velocities indicating line-profile changes rather than an orbit. This indicates that if a companion is present the radial velocity amplitude is very small.

  10. Short-term Time Step Convergence in a Climate Model

    DOE PAGES

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Taylor, Mark; ...

    2015-02-11

    A testing procedure is designed to assess the convergence property of a global climate model with respect to time step size, based on evaluation of the root-mean-square temperature difference at the end of very short (1 h) simulations with time step sizes ranging from 1 s to 1800 s. A set of validation tests conducted without sub-grid scale parameterizations confirmed that the method was able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the dynamical core under various configurations. The testing procedure was then applied to the full model, and revealed a slow convergence of order 0.4 in contrast to themore » expected first-order convergence. Sensitivity experiments showed without ambiguity that the time stepping errors in the model were dominated by those from the stratiform cloud parameterizations, in particular the cloud microphysics. This provides a clear guidance for future work on the design of more accurate numerical methods for time stepping and process coupling in the model.« less

  11. Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanna, A. F.

    1982-01-01

    A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

  12. Statistical adjustment of simulated inter-annual variability in an investigation of short-term temperature trend distributions over Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grenier, Patrick; Chaumont, Diane; de Elía, Ramón

    2015-04-01

    Plausible climate trajectories towards warmer temperatures are made up of a succession of positive and negative short-term trends. Cooling trends over short durations (~ 5 to 25 years) are thus to be expected, and related probabilities have to rely on simulations from physically-based climate models. However, because simulations often present offsets in many statistical properties relative to observations, it is important to address the issue of statistical adjustment prior to characterizing expected short-term trend distributions. In this paper, we discuss the impact of statistically adjusting inter-annual variability on short-term cooling probability for locations across Canada and during the current period (2006-2035). Two methods are considered, one that uses a transfer function based on the dissimilarity between simulated and observed detrended annual temperature values (residuals) during a calibration period, and another that uses an autoregressive model of the observational residuals for generating variability. Long-term trends remain invariant in both methods. Results show that although short-term trends in individual simulations are in some cases highly impacted, cooling probabilities based on a multi-model ensemble are only slightly altered by each of the two methods, due to compensational effects. In summary, this paper presents an application where final results are robust to how simulated inter-annual variability is handled.

  13. Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, H. G.; Mukkamala, R.; Moody, G. B.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

  14. Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, H. G.; Mukkamala, R.; Moody, G. B.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

  15. Short-term variability in particle flux: Storms, blooms and river discharge in a coastal sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johannessen, Sophia C.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Wright, Cynthia A.; Spear, David J.

    2017-07-01

    's organic carbon during a single collection interval (12 days). As short-term climate variability increases in a warming climate , the importance of these sorts of events is likely to increase in the future, particularly in coastal waters that are strongly influenced by river discharge.

  16. Short-term climate changes in the Holsteinian Interglacial - EGU2012-132

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitychoruk, J.; Bińka, K.; Ruppert, H.; Tudryn, A.

    2012-04-01

    Oxygen and carbon stable isotopes from fossil lake sediments of the Holsteinian age (eastern Poland) give evidence for the abrupt climate shifts in this interglacial that coincide with the changes in vegetation inferred from palaeobotanical data. Especially changes of the stable isotope ratios as well as decrease in the carbonate content in the deposits and increase in silicate redeposited from the area around the lake are synchronous with the short-term climatic deteriorations within the interglacial pollen flora. Two distinct climate shifts are recorded in the Holsteinian. The first one is marked by the very characteristic pine-birch cold phase after the yew (Taxus) domination that is reported from numerous pollen diagrams from Central Europe. This distinct cooling resembles a phenomenon known as 8.2 ka event in the Holocene, when waters of the Agassiz Lake in North America drained into the Atlantic Ocean (Koutsodendris et al. 2010). Enormous volumes of freshwater from melting of the Laurentian ice-sheet caused disturbances in the Gulf Stream and as a result some decrease in regional temperatures. The second distinct cooling of a lower rank took place within the younger part of the climatic optimum of the Holsteinian. It is relatively less known, because most often pollen records lack sufficient temporal resolution needed to identify this event. A well documented cooling in the Holsteinian deposits from Dethlingen, northern Germany (Koutsodendris et al. 2010) and from the Ossówka, eastern Poland (Nitychoruk et al. 2005) are exceptional. In the sequence from Dethlingen, a distinct increase in the percentage of pioneer trees is accompanied by a lower content of temperate taxa. At Ossówka, the shift of climate is noted as the rise of ratio of oxygen and carbon isotopes. According to Nitychoruk (2000) the cold event is coincident with volcanic eruptions evidenced by volcanic ash found in the lake deposits at that time. Literature Koutsodendris, A., Müller, U

  17. Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

  18. Metabolic Syndrome and Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Yaw-Wen; Lin, Jin-Ding; Chen, Wei-Liang; Yen, Chia-Feng; Loh, Ching-Hui; Fang, Wen-Hui; Wu, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Heart rate variability (HRV) represents autonomic functioning, and reduced HRV significantly increases cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the present paper are to assess the prevalence of MetS in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), the difference in short-term HRV…

  19. Metabolic Syndrome and Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in Adults with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Yaw-Wen; Lin, Jin-Ding; Chen, Wei-Liang; Yen, Chia-Feng; Loh, Ching-Hui; Fang, Wen-Hui; Wu, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Heart rate variability (HRV) represents autonomic functioning, and reduced HRV significantly increases cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the present paper are to assess the prevalence of MetS in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), the difference in short-term HRV…

  20. The Gaia spectrophotometric standard stars survey - III. Short-term variability monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marinoni, S.; Pancino, E.; Altavilla, G.; Bellazzini, M.; Galleti, S.; Tessicini, G.; Valentini, G.; Cocozza, G.; Ragaini, S.; Braga, V.; Bragaglia, A.; Federici, L.; Schuster, W. J.; Carrasco, J. M.; Castro, A.; Figueras, F.; Jordi, C.

    2016-11-01

    We present the results of the short-term constancy monitoring of candidate Gaia Spectrophotometric Standard Stars (SPSS). We obtained time series of typically 1.24 h - with sampling periods from 1-3 min to a few hours, depending on the case - to monitor the constancy of our candidate SPSS down to 10 mmag, as required for the calibration of Gaia photometric data. We monitored 162 out of a total of 212 SPSS candidates. The observing campaign started in 2006 and finished in 2015, using 143 observing nights on nine different instruments covering both hemispheres. Using differential photometry techniques, we built light curves with a typical precision of 4 mmag, depending on the data quality. As a result of our constancy assessment, 150 SPSS candidates were validated against short-term variability, and only 12 were rejected because of variability including some widely used flux standards such as BD+174708, SA 105-448, 1740346, and HD 37725.

  1. Reproducibility of heart rate variability from short-term recordings during five manoeuvres in normal subjects.

    PubMed

    Carrasco, S; González, R; Gaitán, M J; Yáñez, O

    2003-01-01

    Due to limited and contradictory information available, the reproducibility of temporal and spectral measurements of heart rate variability from short-term recordings was evaluated in normal subjects during supine, controlled breathing, standing, exercise and recovery conditions. Five-minute tachograms from 11 individuals were obtained during the specified manoeuvres, and repeated three times in a five day period. Besides temporal and spectral indexes, the central frequencies were also computed. The ANOVA presented non-significant differences among the repetitions for any of the parameters studied. Most intra-class correlation coefficients were over 0.68. The central frequency of the low component diminished during the manoeuvres. In healthy individuals, the temporal and spectral measurements of the heart rate variability from short-term records are stable in a five day period for the manoeuvres studied. Central frequencies of the spectral components might be used as indexes of the autonomic activity.

  2. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions.

  3. Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Pickett, Evan J.; Thomson, David L.; Li, Teng A.; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  4. Fetal autonomic brain age scores, segmented heart rate variability analysis, and traditional short term variability

    PubMed Central

    Hoyer, Dirk; Kowalski, Eva-Maria; Schmidt, Alexander; Tetschke, Florian; Nowack, Samuel; Rudolph, Anja; Wallwitz, Ulrike; Kynass, Isabelle; Bode, Franziska; Tegtmeyer, Janine; Kumm, Kathrin; Moraru, Liviu; Götz, Theresa; Haueisen, Jens; Witte, Otto W.; Schleußner, Ekkehard; Schneider, Uwe

    2014-01-01

    Disturbances of fetal autonomic brain development can be evaluated from fetal heart rate patterns (HRP) reflecting the activity of the autonomic nervous system. Although HRP analysis from cardiotocographic (CTG) recordings is established for fetal surveillance, temporal resolution is low. Fetal magnetocardiography (MCG), however, provides stable continuous recordings at a higher temporal resolution combined with a more precise heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. A direct comparison of CTG and MCG based HRV analysis is pending. The aims of the present study are: (i) to compare the fetal maturation age predicting value of the MCG based fetal Autonomic Brain Age Score (fABAS) approach with that of CTG based Dawes-Redman methodology; and (ii) to elaborate fABAS methodology by segmentation according to fetal behavioral states and HRP. We investigated MCG recordings from 418 normal fetuses, aged between 21 and 40 weeks of gestation. In linear regression models we obtained an age predicting value of CTG compatible short term variability (STV) of R2 = 0.200 (coefficient of determination) in contrast to MCG/fABAS related multivariate models with R2 = 0.648 in 30 min recordings, R2 = 0.610 in active sleep segments of 10 min, and R2 = 0.626 in quiet sleep segments of 10 min. Additionally segmented analysis under particular exclusion of accelerations (AC) and decelerations (DC) in quiet sleep resulted in a novel multivariate model with R2 = 0.706. According to our results, fMCG based fABAS may provide a promising tool for the estimation of fetal autonomic brain age. Beside other traditional and novel HRV indices as possible indicators of developmental disturbances, the establishment of a fABAS score normogram may represent a specific reference. The present results are intended to contribute to further exploration and validation using independent data sets and multicenter research structures. PMID:25505399

  5. Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hou, Arthur Y.

    2002-01-01

    The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model

  6. Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hou, Arthur Y.

    2002-01-01

    The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model

  7. Antihypertensive drug classes have different effects on short-term blood pressure variability in essential hypertension.

    PubMed

    Levi-Marpillat, Natacha; Macquin-Mavier, Isabelle; Tropeano, Anne-Isabelle; Parati, Gianfranco; Maison, Patrick

    2014-06-01

    Increased blood pressure variability (BPV) contributes to end-organ damage, cardiovascular events and mortality associated with hypertension. In a cohort of 2780 hypertensive patients treated by either calcium channel blockers (CCBs), diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) or β-blockers alone or in combination, we compared indices of short-term BPV according to the different treatments. Short-term BPV was calculated as the standard deviation (s.d.) of 24 h, daytime or nighttime systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). Short-term BPV was compared between patients treated with a given antihypertensive class of interest (alone or in combination) and those not treated with this class, after controlling for ambulatory average blood pressure, heart rate, age, gender, propensity scores and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. Patients treated with CCBs (n=1247) or diuretics (n=1486) alone, or in addition to other drugs had significant lower s.d. of 24-h SBP compared with those not treated with these classes (mean differences in s.d. -0.50±0.50 mm Hg, P=0.001 and -0.17±0.15 mm Hg, P=0.05, respectively). There was no significant difference regarding treatment with or without ARBs, ACEIs and β-blockers. The combinations of CCBs with diuretics or ARBs on top of other treatments resulted in a lower 24-h SBP variability (mean differences in s.d. -0.43±0.17 mm Hg, P=0.02 and -0.44±0.19 mm Hg, P=0.005 vs. other combination uses, respectively). Antihypertensive drug classes have differential effects on short-term BPV with a greater reduction in patients treated with CCBs and diuretics. The combinations of CCBs with diuretics may be the most efficient treatments in lowering BPV.

  8. Ultra-Short-Term Heart Rate Variability is Sensitive to Training Effects in Team Sports Players

    PubMed Central

    Nakamura, Fabio Y.; Flatt, Andrew A.; Pereira, Lucas A.; Ramirez-Campillo, Rodrigo; Loturco, Irineu; Esco, Michael R.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to test the possibility of the ultra-short-term lnRMSSD (measured in 1-min post-1-min stabilization period) to detect training induced adaptations in futsal players. Twenty-four elite futsal players underwent HRV assessments pre- and post-three or four weeks preseason training. From the 10-min HRV recording period, lnRMSSD was analyzed in the following time segments: 1) from 0-5 min (i.e., stabilization period); 2) from 0-1 min; 1-2 min; 2-3 min; 3-4 min; 4-5 min and; 3) from 5-10 min (i.e., criterion period). The lnRMSSD was almost certainly higher (100/00/00) using the magnitude-based inference in all periods at the post- moment. The correlation between changes in ultra-short-term lnRMSSD (i.e., 0-1 min; 1-2 min; 2-3 min; 3-4 min; 4-5 min) and lnRMSSDCriterion ranged between 0.45-0.75, with the highest value (p = 0.75; 90% CI: 0.55 – 0.85) found between ultra-short-term lnRMDSSD at 1-2 min and lnRMSSDCriterion. In conclusion, lnRMSSD determined in a short period of 1-min is sensitive to training induced changes in futsal players (based on the very large correlation to the criterion measure), and can be used to track cardiac autonomic adaptations. Key points The ultra-short-term (1 min) natural log of the root-mean-square difference of successive normal RR intervals (lnRMSSD) is sensitive to training effects in futsal players The ultra-short-term lnRMSSD may simplify the assessment of the cardiac autonomic changes in the field compared to the traditional and lengthier (10 min duration) analysis Coaches are encouraged to implement the ultra-short-term heart rate variability in their routines to monitor team sports athletes PMID:26336347

  9. Ultra-Short-Term Heart Rate Variability is Sensitive to Training Effects in Team Sports Players.

    PubMed

    Nakamura, Fabio Y; Flatt, Andrew A; Pereira, Lucas A; Ramirez-Campillo, Rodrigo; Loturco, Irineu; Esco, Michael R

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to test the possibility of the ultra-short-term lnRMSSD (measured in 1-min post-1-min stabilization period) to detect training induced adaptations in futsal players. Twenty-four elite futsal players underwent HRV assessments pre- and post-three or four weeks preseason training. From the 10-min HRV recording period, lnRMSSD was analyzed in the following time segments: 1) from 0-5 min (i.e., stabilization period); 2) from 0-1 min; 1-2 min; 2-3 min; 3-4 min; 4-5 min and; 3) from 5-10 min (i.e., criterion period). The lnRMSSD was almost certainly higher (100/00/00) using the magnitude-based inference in all periods at the post- moment. The correlation between changes in ultra-short-term lnRMSSD (i.e., 0-1 min; 1-2 min; 2-3 min; 3-4 min; 4-5 min) and lnRMSSDCriterion ranged between 0.45-0.75, with the highest value (p = 0.75; 90% CI: 0.55 - 0.85) found between ultra-short-term lnRMDSSD at 1-2 min and lnRMSSDCriterion. In conclusion, lnRMSSD determined in a short period of 1-min is sensitive to training induced changes in futsal players (based on the very large correlation to the criterion measure), and can be used to track cardiac autonomic adaptations. Key pointsThe ultra-short-term (1 min) natural log of the root-mean-square difference of successive normal RR intervals (lnRMSSD) is sensitive to training effects in futsal playersThe ultra-short-term lnRMSSD may simplify the assessment of the cardiac autonomic changes in the field compared to the traditional and lengthier (10 min duration) analysisCoaches are encouraged to implement the ultra-short-term heart rate variability in their routines to monitor team sports athletes.

  10. Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, Andrew; Wiser, Ryan

    2010-08-23

    Worldwide interest in the deployment of photovoltaic generation (PV) is rapidly increasing. Operating experience with large PV plants, however, demonstrates that large, rapid changes in the output of PV plants are possible. Early studies of PV grid impacts suggested that short-term variability could be a potential limiting factor in deploying PV. Many of these early studies, however, lacked high-quality data from multiple sites to assess the costs and impacts of increasing PV penetration. As is well known for wind, accounting for the potential for geographic diversity can significantly reduce the magnitude of extreme changes in aggregated PV output, the resources required to accommodate that variability, and the potential costs of managing variability. We use measured 1-min solar insolation for 23 time-synchronized sites in the Southern Great Plains network of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and wind speed data from 10 sites in the same network to characterize the variability of PV with different degrees of geographic diversity and to compare the variability of PV to the variability of similarly sited wind. The relative aggregate variability of PV plants sited in a dense 10 x 10 array with 20 km spacing is six times less than the variability of a single site for variability on time scales less than 15-min. We find in our analysis of wind and PV plants similarly sited in a 5 x 5 grid with 50 km spacing that the variability of PV is only slightly more than the variability of wind on time scales of 5-15 min. Over shorter and longer time scales the level of variability is nearly identical. Finally, we use a simple approximation method to estimate the cost of carrying additional reserves to manage sub-hourly variability. We conclude that the costs of managing the short-term variability of PV are dramatically reduced by geographic diversity and are not substantially different from the costs for managing the short-term variability of similarly sited wind in

  11. A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Short-Term Sleep Deprivation on Cognitive Variables

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Julian; Dinges, David F.

    2012-01-01

    A substantial amount of research has been conducted in an effort to understand the impact of short-term (<48 hr) total sleep deprivation (SD) on outcomes in various cognitive domains. Despite this wealth of information, there has been disagreement on how these data should be interpreted, arising in part because the relative magnitude of effect sizes in these domains is not known. To address this question, we conducted a meta-analysis to discover the effects of short-term SD on both speed and accuracy measures in 6 cognitive categories: simple attention, complex attention, working memory, processing speed, short-term memory, and reasoning. Seventy articles containing 147 cognitive tests were found that met inclusion criteria for this study. Effect sizes ranged from small and nonsignificant (reasoning accuracy: ḡ = −0.125, 95% CI [−0.27, 0.02]) to large (lapses in simple attention: ḡ = −0.776, 95% CI [−0.96, −0.60], p < .001). Across cognitive domains, significant differences were observed for both speed and accuracy; however, there were no differences between speed and accuracy measures within each cognitive domain. Of several moderators tested, only time awake was a significant predictor of between-studies variability, and only for accuracy measures, suggesting that heterogeneity in test characteristics may account for a significant amount of the remaining between-studies variance. The theoretical implications of these findings for the study of SD and cognition are discussed. PMID:20438143

  12. Metabolic syndrome and short-term heart rate variability in adults with intellectual disabilities.

    PubMed

    Chang, Yaw-Wen; Lin, Jin-Ding; Chen, Wei-Liang; Yen, Chia-Feng; Loh, Ching-Hui; Fang, Wen-Hui; Wu, Li-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Heart rate variability (HRV) represents autonomic functioning, and reduced HRV significantly increases cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the present paper are to assess the prevalence of MetS in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), the difference in short-term HRV between the healthy and ID population, and the association of short-term HRV with MetS. In this study, we analyzed 129 ID subjects who participated in routine health check-ups in October 2010. We measured their metabolic components and evaluated the relationships of MetS with short-term HRV indices. The study found that MetS and obesity are common in persons with ID. ID subjects have significantly lower HRV than healthy adults, and persons with ID persons with MetS have significantly lower HRV than ID subjects without MetS. The individual components of MetS are differentially associated with HRV in ID men and women. Metabolic syndrome adversely affects autonomic cardiac control, and reduced autonomic cardiac control could contribute to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular events in individuals who exhibit metabolic syndrome. Sex differences in vagal activity and sympathovagal balance may partly explain the greater increase in cardiovascular risk associated with MetS in ID women compared with ID men.

  13. SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY OF PURE-TONE THRESHOLDS OBTAINED WITH TDH-39P EARPHONES

    PubMed Central

    Flamme, Gregory A.; Stephenson, Mark R.; Deiters, Kristy K.; Hessenauer, Amanda; VanGessel, Devon; Geda, Kyle; Wyllys, Krista; McGregor, Kara

    2015-01-01

    Objective To estimate the short-term variability and correlates of variability in pure-tone thresholds obtained using audiometric equipment designed for occupational use, and to examine the justification for excluding 8 kHz as a mandatory threshold in occupational hearing conservation programs. Method Pure-tone thresholds and other hearing-related tests (e.g., noise dosimetry, otoscopy, middle ear assessment) were conducted with a group of 527 adults between 20 and 69 years of age. A total of five measurement visits were completed by participants within a 14-day period. Results The 50 % critical difference boundaries were −5 and 0 dB at 4 kHz and below and −5 and 5 dB at 6 and 8 kHz. The likelihood of spurious notches due to test-retest variability was substantially lower than the likelihood of failing to detect a notched configuration when present. Correlates of variability included stimulus frequency, baseline threshold, acoustic reflectance of the ear, average noise exposure during the previous 8 hours, age, and the tester’s level of education in audiology. Conclusion The short-term variability in 8 kHz pure tone thresholds obtained with the TDH-39P earphone was slightly greater than at other frequencies, but this difference was not large enough to justify the disadvantages stemming from the inability to detect a 6 kHz notch. PMID:24564693

  14. Short-term variability of pure-tone thresholds obtained with TDH-39P earphones.

    PubMed

    Flamme, Gregory A; Stephenson, Mark R; Deiters, Kristy K; Hessenauer, Amanda; VanGessel, Devon K; Geda, Kyle; Wyllys, Krista; McGregor, Kara D

    2014-03-01

    To estimate the short-term variability and correlates of variability in pure-tone thresholds obtained using audiometric equipment designed for occupational use, and to examine the justification for excluding 8 kHz as a mandatory threshold in occupational hearing conservation programs. Pure-tone thresholds and other hearing-related tests (e.g. noise dosimetry, otoscopy, middle-ear assessment) were conducted with a group of 527 adults between 20 and 69 years of age. Five measurement visits were completed by participants within 14 days. The 50% critical difference boundaries were - 5 and 0 dB at 4 kHz and below and - 5 and 5 dB at 6 and 8 kHz. The likelihood of spurious notches due to test-retest variability was substantially lower than the likelihood of failing to detect a notched configuration when present. Correlates of variability included stimulus frequency, baseline threshold, acoustic reflectance of the ear, average noise exposure during the previous eight hours, age, and the tester's level of education in audiology. The short-term variability in 8-kHz pure-tone thresholds obtained with the TDH-39P earphone was slightly greater than at other frequencies, but this difference was not large enough to justify the disadvantages stemming from the inability to detect a 6-kHz notch.

  15. Increased Short-Term Beat-To-Beat Variability of QT Interval in Patients with Acromegaly

    PubMed Central

    Orosz, Andrea; Csajbók, Éva; Czékus, Csilla; Gavallér, Henriette; Magony, Sándor; Valkusz, Zsuzsanna; Várkonyi, Tamás T.; Nemes, Attila; Baczkó, István; Forster, Tamás; Wittmann, Tibor; Papp, Julius Gy.; Varró, András; Lengyel, Csaba

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases, including ventricular arrhythmias are responsible for increased mortality in patients with acromegaly. Acromegaly may cause repolarization abnormalities such as QT prolongation and impairment of repolarization reserve enhancing liability to arrhythmia. The aim of this study was to determine the short-term beat-to-beat QT variability in patients with acromegaly. Thirty acromegalic patients (23 women and 7 men, mean age±SD: 55.7±10.4 years) were compared with age- and sex-matched volunteers (mean age 51.3±7.6 years). Cardiac repolarization parameters including frequency corrected QT interval, PQ and QRS intervals, duration of terminal part of T waves (Tpeak-Tend) and short-term variability of QT interval were evaluated. All acromegalic patients and controls underwent transthoracic echocardiographic examination. Autonomic function was assessed by means of five standard cardiovascular reflex tests. Comparison of the two groups revealed no significant differences in the conventional ECG parameters of repolarization (QT: 401.1±30.6 ms vs 389.3±16.5 ms, corrected QT interval: 430.1±18.6 ms vs 425.6±17.3 ms, QT dispersion: 38.2±13.2 ms vs 36.6±10.2 ms; acromegaly vs control, respectively). However, short-term beat-to-beat QT variability was significantly increased in acromegalic patients (4.23±1.03 ms vs 3.02±0.80, P<0.0001). There were significant differences between the two groups in the echocardiographic dimensions (left ventricular end diastolic diameter: 52.6±5.4 mm vs 48.0±3.9 mm, left ventricular end systolic diameter: 32.3±5.2 mm vs 29.1±4.4 mm, interventricular septum: 11.1±2.2 mm vs 8.8±0.7 mm, posterior wall of left ventricle: 10.8±1.4 mm vs 8.9±0.7 mm, P<0.05, respectively). Short-term beat-to-beat QT variability was elevated in patients with acromegaly in spite of unchanged conventional parameters of ventricular repolarization. This enhanced temporal QT variability may be an early indicator of increased liability to

  16. Correlation structures in short-term variabilities of stock indices and exchange rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael

    2007-09-01

    Financial data usually show irregular fluctuations and some trends. We investigate whether there are correlation structures in short-term variabilities (irregular fluctuations) among financial data from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems. Our method is based on the small-shuffle surrogate method. The data we use are daily closing price of Standard & Poor's 500 and the volume, and daily foreign exchange rates, Euro/US Dollar (USD), British Pound/USD and Japanese Yen/USD. We found that these data are not independent.

  17. Short-Term Behavior of Slag Concretes Exposed to a Real In Situ Mediterranean Climate Environment.

    PubMed

    Ortega, José Marcos; Sánchez, Isidro; Cabeza, Marta; Climent, Miguel Ángel

    2017-08-08

    At present, one of the most suitable ways to get a more sustainable cement industry is to reduce the CO₂ emissions generated during cement production. In order to reach that goal, the use of ground granulated blast-furnace slag as clinker replacement is becoming increasingly popular. Although the effects of this addition in the properties of cementitious materials are influenced by their hardening conditions, there are not too many experimental studies in which slag concretes have been exposed to real in situ environments. Then, the main objective of this research is to study the short-term effects of exposure to real Mediterranean climate environment of an urban site, where the action of airborne chlorides from sea water and the presence of CO₂ are combined, in the microstructure and service properties of a commercial slag cement concrete, compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC). The microstructure was studied with mercury intrusion porosimetry. The effective porosity, capillary suction coefficient, chloride migration coefficient, carbonation front depth, and compressive strength were also analyzed. Considering the results obtained, slag concretes exposed to a real in situ Mediterranean climate environment show good service properties in the short-term (180 days), in comparison with OPC.

  18. Short-Term Behavior of Slag Concretes Exposed to a Real In Situ Mediterranean Climate Environment

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez, Isidro

    2017-01-01

    At present, one of the most suitable ways to get a more sustainable cement industry is to reduce the CO2 emissions generated during cement production. In order to reach that goal, the use of ground granulated blast-furnace slag as clinker replacement is becoming increasingly popular. Although the effects of this addition in the properties of cementitious materials are influenced by their hardening conditions, there are not too many experimental studies in which slag concretes have been exposed to real in situ environments. Then, the main objective of this research is to study the short-term effects of exposure to real Mediterranean climate environment of an urban site, where the action of airborne chlorides from sea water and the presence of CO2 are combined, in the microstructure and service properties of a commercial slag cement concrete, compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC). The microstructure was studied with mercury intrusion porosimetry. The effective porosity, capillary suction coefficient, chloride migration coefficient, carbonation front depth, and compressive strength were also analyzed. Considering the results obtained, slag concretes exposed to a real in situ Mediterranean climate environment show good service properties in the short-term (180 days), in comparison with OPC. PMID:28786936

  19. Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Landa, Martin; Neuman, Martin; Kožant, Petr; Muller, Miloslav

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this contribution is to introduce the recently started three year's project named "Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Runoff in Small Czech Drainage Basins and its Influence on Water Resources Management". Its main goal is to elaborate a methodology and online utility for deriving short-term design precipitation series, which could be utilized by a broad community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. The outcomes of the project will especially be helpful in modelling hydrological or soil erosion problems when designing common measures for promoting water retention or landscape drainage systems in or out of the scope of Landscape consolidation projects. The precipitation scenarios will be derived from 10 years of observed data from point gauging stations and radar data. The analysis is focused on events' return period, rainfall total amount, internal intensity distribution and spatial distribution over the area of Czech Republic. The methodology will account for the choice of the simulation model. Several representatives of practically oriented models will be tested for the output sensitivity to selected precipitation scenario comparing to variability connected with other inputs uncertainty. The variability of the outputs will also be assessed in the context of economic impacts in design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research was supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, using data provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

  20. Intraday and Interday Reliability of Ultra-Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in Rugby Union Players.

    PubMed

    Nakamura, Fábio Y; Pereira, Lucas A; Esco, Michael R; Flatt, Andrew A; Moraes, José E; Cal Abad, Cesar C; Loturco, Irineu

    2017-02-01

    Nakamura, FY, Pereira, LA, Esco, MR, Flatt, AA, Moraes, JE, Cal Abad, CC, and Loturco, I. Intraday and interday reliability of ultra-short-term heart rate variability in rugby union players. J Strength Cond Res 31(2): 548-551, 2017-The aim of this study was to examine the intraday and interday reliability of ultra-short-term vagal-related heart rate variability (HRV) in elite rugby union players. Forty players from the Brazilian National Rugby Team volunteered to participate in this study. The natural log of the root mean square of successive RR interval differences (lnRMSSD) assessments were performed on 4 different days. The HRV was assessed twice (intraday reliability) on the first day and once per day on the following 3 days (interday reliability). The RR interval recordings were obtained from 2-minute recordings using a portable heart rate monitor. The relative reliability of intraday and interday lnRMSSD measures was analyzed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The typical error of measurement (absolute reliability) of intraday and interday lnRMSSD assessments was analyzed using the coefficient of variation (CV). Both intraday (ICC = 0.96; CV = 3.99%) and interday (ICC = 0.90; CV = 7.65%) measures were highly reliable. The ultra-short-term lnRMSSD is a consistent measure for evaluating elite rugby union players, in both intraday and interday settings. This study provides further validity to using this shortened method in practical field conditions with highly trained team sports athletes.

  1. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring-derived short-term blood pressure variability in primary hyperparathyroidism.

    PubMed

    Concistrè, A; Grillo, A; La Torre, G; Carretta, R; Fabris, B; Petramala, L; Marinelli, C; Rebellato, A; Fallo, F; Letizia, C

    2017-07-12

    Primary hyperparathyroidism is associated with a cluster of cardiovascular manifestations, including hypertension, leading to increased cardiovascular risk. The aim of our study was to investigate the ambulatory blood pressure monitoring-derived short-term blood pressure variability in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, in comparison with patients with essential hypertension and normotensive controls. Twenty-five patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (7 normotensive,18 hypertensive) underwent ambulatory blood pressure monitoring at diagnosis, and fifteen out of them were re-evaluated after parathyroidectomy. Short-term-blood pressure variability was derived from ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and calculated as the following: 1) Standard Deviation of 24-h, day-time and night-time-BP; 2) the average of day-time and night-time-Standard Deviation, weighted for the duration of the day and night periods (24-h "weighted" Standard Deviation of BP); 3) average real variability, i.e., the average of the absolute differences between all consecutive BP measurements. Baseline data of normotensive and essential hypertension patients were matched for age, sex, BMI and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring values with normotensive and hypertensive-primary hyperparathyroidism patients, respectively. Normotensive-primary hyperparathyroidism patients showed a 24-h weighted Standard Deviation (P < 0.01) and average real variability (P < 0.05) of systolic blood pressure higher than that of 12 normotensive controls. 24-h average real variability of systolic BP, as well as serum calcium and parathyroid hormone levels, were reduced in operated patients (P < 0.001). A positive correlation of serum calcium and parathyroid hormone with 24-h-average real variability of systolic BP was observed in the entire primary hyperparathyroidism patients group (P = 0.04, P  = 0.02; respectively). Systolic blood pressure variability is increased in normotensive

  2. Exploring the Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Hydrological Response of Small Czech Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Ludek; Weyskrabova, Lenka; Müller, Miloslav; Kozant, Petr

    2017-04-01

    The short-term rainfall temporal distribution is known to have a significant effect on the small watersheds' hydrological response. In Czech Republic there are limited publicly available data on rainfall patterns of short-term precipitation. On one side there are catalogues of very short-term synthetic rainfalls used in urban drainage planning and on the other side hourly distribution of daily totals of rainfalls with long return period for larger catchments analyses. This contribution introduces the preliminary outcomes of a running three years' project, which should bridge this gap and provide such data and methodology to the community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. Six generalized 6-hours hyetographs with 1 minute resolution were derived from 10 years of radar and gauging stations data. These hyetographs are accompanied with information concerning the region of occurrence as well as their frequency related to the rainfall amount. In the next step these hyetographs are used in a complex sensitivity analysis focused on a rainfall-runoff response of small watersheds. This analysis takes into account the uncertainty related to type of the hydrological model, watershed characteristics and main model routines parameterization. Five models with different methods and structure are considered and each model is applied on 5 characteristic watersheds selected from a classification of 7700 small Czech watersheds. For each combination of model and watershed 30, rainfall scenarios were simulated and other scenarios will be used to address the parameters uncertainty. In the last step the variability of outputs will be assessed in the context of economic impacts on design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research is supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, rainfall data were provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

  3. Short-Term Variability in Apnea-Hypopnea Index during Extended Home Portable Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Prasad, Bharati; Usmani, Sarah; Steffen, Alana D.; Van Dongen, Hans P.A.; Pack, Francis M.; Strakovsky, Inna; Staley, Bethany; Dinges, David; Maislin, Greg; Pack, Allan I.; Weaver, Terri E.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) is the primary measure used to confirm a diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). However, there may be significant night-to-night variability (NNV) in AHI, limiting the value of AHI in clinical decision-making related to OSA management. We examined short-term NNV in AHI and its predictors during home portable monitoring (PM). Methods: Single center prospective observational study of patients (n = 84) with newly diagnosed OSA by polysomnography (PSG) AHI ≥ 5/h. All participants underwent 2 to 8 consecutive nights of PM. Results: Participants (n = 84) were middle-aged (47 ± 8.3 y, mean ± standard deviation; SD), including 28 women, with mean AHI on baseline PSG (AHIPSG) of 30.1 ± 31.8. Mean AHI on PM (AHIPM) was 27.4 ± 23.7. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for AHIPM in the entire sample was 0.73 (95% CI 0.66–0.8), indicating that 27% of the variability in AHIPM was due to intra-individual factors. Mild severity of OSA, defined by AHIPSG 5–15/h, was associated with higher NNV (likelihood ratio, −0.4 ± 0.14; p = 0.006) and absence of comorbidity showed a trend towards higher NNV (−0.54 ± 0.27, p = 0.05) on AHIPM. Conclusions: The intraindividual short-term NNV in AHIPM is higher in mild versus moderately severe OSA, even in the home setting, where first-night effect is not expected. Larger studies of NNV focused on patients with mild OSA are needed to identify characteristics that predict need and timing for repeated diagnostic testing and treatment. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 787. Citation: Prasad B, Usmani S, Steffen AD, Van Dongen HP, Pack FM, Strakovsky I, Staley B, Dinges D, Maislin G, Pack AI, Weaver TE. Short-term variability in apnea-hypopnea index during extended home portable monitoring. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(6):855–863. PMID:26857059

  4. Effect of short-term and long-term Brahmakumaris Raja Yoga meditation on physiological variables.

    PubMed

    Sukhsohale, Neelam D; Phatak, Mrunal S

    2012-01-01

    Effect of short-term and long-term Brahmakumaris Raja Yoga meditation on physiological variables like heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was evaluated in 100 subjects practicing Raja Yoga meditation. All 100 subjects (33 men and 67 women) were aged 30 years and above (mean age 52.06 +/- 12.76 years). Short-term meditators (STM) (n = 27) practiced Raja Yoga meditation for duration of six months to five years (mean duration 3.37 +/- 1.67 years) and long-term meditators (LTM) (n = 73) practiced Raja Yoga meditation for more than five years (mean duration 11.19 +/- 5.13 years). The participants were asked to meditate and the physiological variables (HR, RR, SBP and DBP) were recorded twice (15 minutes and 30 minutes) after beginning of meditation. Also, the fasting blood sugar was estimated by glucometer. The study subjects did not differ significantly in age and various anthropometric characteristics such as body weight, body mass index, waist-hip ratio and fasting blood sugar. Comparison between STM and LTM showed that the changes from baseline values (from premeditation to post-meditation at 15 and 30 minutes) in LTM were not statistically significant with those in STM (P > 0.05). However, within group differences in LTM revealed that changes in the physiological variables were statistically significant when compared between pre and post meditation both at 15 and 30 minutes. The study suggests that the long-term practice of Raja Yoga meditation improves basic cardio-respiratory functions due to shifting of the autonomic balance in favor of parasympathetic instead of sympathetic system.

  5. A Systematic Search for Short-term Variability of EGRET Sources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wallace, P. M.; Griffis, N. J.; Bertsch, D. L.; Hartman, R. C.; Thompson, D. J.; Kniffen, D. A.; Bloom, S. D.

    2000-01-01

    The 3rd EGRET Catalog of High-energy Gamma-ray Sources contains 170 unidentified sources, and there is great interest in the nature of these sources. One means of determining source class is the study of flux variability on time scales of days; pulsars are believed to be stable on these time scales while blazers are known to be highly variable. In addition, previous work has demonstrated that 3EG J0241-6103 and 3EG J1837-0606 are candidates for a new gamma-ray source class. These sources near the Galactic plane display transient behavior but cannot be associated with any known blazers. Although, many instances of flaring AGN have been reported, the EGRET database has not been systematically searched for occurrences of short-timescale (approximately 1 day) variability. These considerations have led us to conduct a systematic search for short-term variability in EGRET data, covering all viewing periods through proposal cycle 4. Six 3EG catalog sources are reported here to display variability on short time scales; four of them are unidentified. In addition, three non-catalog variable sources are discussed.

  6. Detection of stratospheric HNO3 and NO2 response to short-term solar ultraviolet variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keating, G. M.; Nicholson, J., III; Brasseur, G.; de Rudder, A.; Schmailzl, U.

    1986-07-01

    It is pointed out that variations in the solar ultraviolet irradiance with a period equal to or approximately one-half of the rotation period of the sun are currently observed by satellite monitoring. Information regarding the response of stratospheric species to solar ultraviolet variability is indispensable for an understanding of the photochemical behavior of the middle atmosphere. Relations are considered between LIMS (limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere) measurements of HNO3 and NO2, and the SBUV (solar backscatter ultraviolet) measurements of short-term variations in 205-nm radiation. It is found that the response of HNO3 is much stronger than, but in the opposite sense to the ozone response, while the NO2 response is in the opposite sense to the HNO3 response. Model calculations predict large variations in HNO3 over the 11-yr solar cycle.

  7. Visibility graph analysis of very short-term heart rate variability during sleep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, F. Z.; Li, F. W.; Wang, J.; Yan, F. R.

    2016-09-01

    Based on a visibility-graph algorithm, complex networks were constructed from very short-term heart rate variability (HRV) during different sleep stages. Network measurements progressively changed from rapid eye movement (REM) sleep to light sleep and then deep sleep, exhibiting promising ability for sleep assessment. Abnormal activation of the cardiovascular controls with enhanced 'small-world' couplings and altered fractal organization during REM sleep indicates that REM could be a potential risk factor for adverse cardiovascular event, especially in males, older individuals, and people who are overweight. Additionally, an apparent influence of gender, aging, and obesity on sleep was demonstrated in healthy adults, which may be helpful for establishing expected sleep-HRV patterns in different populations.

  8. Therapeutic alliance and cohesion variables as predictors of outcome in short-term group psychotherapy.

    PubMed

    Joyce, Anthony S; Piper, William E; Ogrodniczuk, John S

    2007-07-01

    The current study explored the relative ability of aggregate therapeutic alliance and cohesion variables to predict short-term group therapy outcome. Data were collected from a comparative trial of two forms of time-limited group psychotherapy for complicated grief (Piper, McCallum, Joyce, Rosie, & Ogrodniczuk, 2001). The therapeutic alliance and elements of the cohesion construct were measured from the perspectives of each patient and the group therapist at intervals during the groups; scores were aggregated across assessments. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses, adjusting for the effects of treatment approach (interpretive vs. supportive) and specific group membership, demonstrated that the patient-rated alliance was a consistent predictor of outcome. Two cohesion measures, reflecting other participants' (therapist, other members) views of the patient's "fit" with the group, also accounted for variation in outcome. Implications of the findings for research and clinical practice, and the limitations of the measurement approach taken in this study, are considered.

  9. Anatomy of the AGN in NGC 5548: the short-term variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Gesu, L.; Kaastra, J.; NGC 5548 Collaboration

    2014-07-01

    After a very successful multi-satellite campaign on Mrk 509 in 2009, we conducted a similar campaign on the AGN NGC 5548 in 2013. During the latter the source appeared unusually strongly absorbed in the soft X-rays, and signatures of strong outflows were also present in the UV. While a talk giving an overview of the campaign (PI: J. Kaastra) is also proposed at this conference, here we focus on the short term (˜months) variability of the source during the campaign. The short time-scale behaviour of the source is likely due to variations in the obscuring wind, that may consist of two gas phases. This study allows us to investigate the geometry of the system around the black hole.

  10. A Systematic Search for Short-term Variability of EGRET Sources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wallace, P. M.; Bertsch, D. L.; Bloom, S. D.; Griffis, N. J.; Hunter, S. D.; Kniffen, D. A.; Thompson, D. J.

    1999-01-01

    The 3rd EGRET Catalog contains 170 unidentified high-energy (E>100 MeV) gamma-ray sources, and there is great interest in the nature of these sources. One means of determining sources class is the study of flux variability on time scales of days; pulsars are believed to be stable on these scales while blazars are known to be highly variable. In addition, previous work has led to the discovery of 2CG 135+01 and GRO J1838-04, candidates for a new high-energy gamma-ray source class. These sources display transient behavior but cannot be associated with any known blazars. These considerations have led us to conduct a systematic search for short-term variability in EGRET data, covering all viewing periods through cycle 4. Three unidentified sources show some evidence of variability on short time scales; the source displaying the most convincing variability, 3EG J2006-2321, is not easily identified as a blazar.

  11. Rotational Properties of the Haumea Family Members and Candidates: Short-term Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirouin, Audrey; Sheppard, Scott S.; Noll, Keith S.; Moskovitz, Nicholas A.; Ortiz, Jose Luis; Doressoundiram, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Haumea is one of the most interesting and intriguing trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). It is a large, bright, fast rotator, and its spectrum indicates nearly pure water ice on the surface. It has at least two satellites and a dynamically related family of more than 10 TNOs with very similar proper orbital parameters and similar surface properties. The Haumean family is the only one currently known in the trans-Neptunian belt. Various models have been proposed, but the formation of the family remains poorly understood. In this work, we have investigated the rotational properties of the family members and unconfirmed family candidates with short-term variability studies, and report the most complete review to date. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of five family members and seven candidates. The mean rotational periods, from Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 6.27 ± 1.19 hr for the confirmed family members, 6.44 ± 1.16 hr for the candidates, and 7.65 ± 0.54 hr for other TNOs (without relation to the family). According to our study, there is a possibility that Haumea family members rotate faster than other TNOs; however, the sample of family members is still too limited for a secure conclusion. We also highlight the fast rotation of 2002 GH32. This object has a 0.36 ± 0.02 mag amplitude lightcurve and a rotational period of about 3.98 hr. Assuming 2002 GH32 is a triaxial object in hydrostatic equilibrium, we derive a lower limit to the density of 2.56 g cm-3. This density is similar to Haumea’s and much more dense than other small TNO densities.

  12. Rotational Properties of the Haumea Family Members and Candidates: Short-Term Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thirouin, Audrey; Sheppard, Scott S.; Noll, Keith S.; Moskovitz, Nicholas A.; Oritiz, Jose Luis; Doressoundiram, Alain

    2016-01-01

    Haumea is one of the most interesting and intriguing trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). It is a large, bright, fast rotator, and its spectrum indicates nearly pure water ice on the surface. It has at least two satellites and a dynamically related family of more than 10 TNOs with very similar proper orbital parameters and similar surface properties. The Haumean family is the only one currently known in the trans-Neptunian belt. Various models have been proposed, but the formation of the family remains poorly understood. In this work, we have investigated the rotational properties of the family members and unconfirmed family candidates with short-term variability studies, and report the most complete review to date. We present results based on five years of observations and report the short-term variability of five family members, and seven candidates. The mean rotational periods, from Maxwellian fits to the frequency distributions, are 6.27 +/- 1.19 hr for the confirmed family members, 6.44 +/- 1.16 hr for the candidates, and 7.65 +/- 0.54 hr for other TNOs (without relation to the family). According to our study, there is a possibility that Haumea family members rotate faster than other TNOs, however, the sample of family member is still too limited for a secure conclusion. We also highlight the fast rotation of 2002 GH(sub 32). This object has a 0.36 +/- 0.02 mag amplitude lightcurve and a rotational period of about 3.98 hr. Assuming 2002 GH(sub 32) is a triaxial object in hydrostatic equilibrium, we derive a lower limit to the density of 2.56 g cm(exp -3). This density is similar to Haumea's and much more dense than other small TNO densities.

  13. Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neveu, André

    2009-09-01

    In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

  14. Broadband short term X-ray variability of the quasar PDS 456

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matzeu, G. A.; Reeves, J. N.; Nardini, E.; Braito, V.; Costa, M. T.; Tombesi, F.; Gofford, J.

    2016-05-01

    We present a detailed analysis of a recent 500 ks net exposure Suzaku observation, carried out in 2013, of the nearby (z=0.184) luminous (L_bol˜1047 erg s-1) quasar PDS 456 in which the X-ray flux was unusually low. The short term X-ray spectral variability has been interpreted in terms of variable absorption and/or intrinsic continuum changes. In the former scenario, the spectral variability is due to variable covering factors of two regions of partially covering absorbers. We find that these absorbers are characterised by an outflow velocity comparable to that of the highly ionised wind, i.e. ˜ 0.25 c, at the 99.9% (3.26σ) confidence level. This suggests that the partially absorbing clouds may be the denser clumpy part of the inhomogeneous wind. Following an obscuration event we obtained a direct estimate of the size of the X-ray emitting region, to be not larger than 20 R_g in PDS 456.

  15. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    PubMed Central

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3–2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period. PMID:24379785

  16. Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

    2013-01-01

    In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

  17. The contrasting effects of short-term climate change on the early recruitment of tree species.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Inés; Katz, Daniel S W; Lee, Benjamin R

    2017-07-01

    Predictions of plant responses to climate change are frequently based on organisms' presence in warmer locations, which are then assumed to reflect future performance in cooler areas. However, as plant life stages may be affected differently by environmental changes, there is little empirical evidence that this approach provides reliable estimates of short-term responses to global warming. Under this premise, we analyzed 8 years of early recruitment data, seed production and seedling establishment and survival, collected for two tree species at two latitudes. We quantified recruitment to a wide range of environmental conditions, temperature, soil moisture and light, and simulated recruitment under two forecasted climatic scenarios. Annual demographic transitions were affected by the particular conditions taking place during their onset, but the effects of similar environmental shifts differed among the recruitment stages; seed production was higher in warmer years, while seedling establishment and survival peaked during cold years. Within a species, these effects also varied between latitudes; increasing temperatures at the southern location will have stronger detrimental effects on recruitment than similar changes at the northern locations. Our simulations illustrate that warmer temperatures may increase seed production, but they will have a negative effect on establishment and survival. When the three early recruitment processes were simultaneously considered, simulations showed little change in recruitment dynamics at the northern site and a slight decrease at the southern site. It is only when we considered these three stages that we were able to assess likely changes in early recruitment under the predicted conditions.

  18. Changing maternity leave policy: short-term effects on fertility rates and demographic variables in Germany.

    PubMed

    Thyrian, Jochen René; Fendrich, Konstanze; Lange, Anja; Haas, Johannes-Peter; Zygmunt, Marek; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

    2010-08-01

    Changes in reproductive behaviour and decreasing fertility rates have recently led to policy actions that attempt to counteract these developments. Evidence on the efficacy of such policy interventions, however, is limited. The present analysis examines fertility rates and demographic variables of a population in Germany in response to new maternity leave regulations, which were introduced in January 2007. As part of a population-based survey of neonates in Pomerania (SNiP), all births in the study region from the period 23 months prior to January 1st, 2007 until 23 months afterwards were examined. Crude Birth Rates (CBR) per month, General Fertility Rates (GFR) per month, parity and sociodemographic variables were compared using bivariate techniques. Logistic regression analysis was performed. No statistically significant difference in the CBR or GFR after Jan. 1st, 2007 was found. There were statistically significant differences in other demographic variables, however. The proportion of mothers who (a) were employed full-time before pregnancy; (b) came from a higher socioeconomic status; and (c) had higher income levels all increased after January 1st, 2007. The magnitude of these effects was higher in multigravid women. Forward stepwise logistic regression found an odds ratio of 1.79 for women with a family income of more than 3000 euro to give birth after the new law was introduced. This is the first analysis of population-based data that examines fertility rates and sociodemographic variables in response to new legal regulations. No short-term effects on birth rates were detected, but there was a differential effect on the subgroup of multigravidae. The focus of this policy was to provide financial support, which is certainly important, but the complexity of having a child suggests that attitudinal and motivational aspects also need to be taken into account. Furthermore, these analyses were only able to evaluate the short-term consequences of the policy

  19. Short-Term Variability and Predictors of Urinary Pentachlorophenol Levels in Ohio Preschool Children

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Marsha; Jones, Paul; Sobus, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a persistent and ubiquitous environmental contaminant. No published data exist on the temporal variability or important predictors of urinary PCP concentrations in young children. In this further analysis of study data, we have examined the associations between selected sociodemographic or lifestyle factors and urinary PCP concentrations in 115 preschool children over a 48-h period and assessed the 48-hour variability of urinary PCP levels in a subset of 15 children. Monitoring was performed at 115 homes and 16 daycares in Ohio (USA) in 2001. Questionnaires/diaries and spot urine samples were collected from each child. The median urinary PCP level was 0.8 ng/mL (range < 0.2–23.8 ng/mL). The intraclass correlation coefficient for urinary PCP was 0.42, which indicates fairly low reliability for a single sample over a 48-h period. In a multiple regression model, age of home and ln(creatinine levels) were significant predictors and sampling season, time spent outside, and pet ownership were marginally significant predictors of ln(urinary PCP levels), collectively explaining 29% of the variability of PCP in urine. To adequately assess short-term exposures of children to PCP, several spot urine measurements are likely needed as well as information regarding residence age, seasonality, time spent outdoors, and pet ownership. PMID:25594782

  20. Microgravity alters respiratory sinus arrhythmia and short-term heart rate variability in humans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Migeotte, P-F; Prisk, G. Kim; Paiva, M.; West, J. B. (Principal Investigator)

    2003-01-01

    We studied heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in four male subjects before, during, and after 16 days of spaceflight. The electrocardiogram and respiration were recorded during two periods of 4 min controlled breathing at 7.5 and 15 breaths/min in standing and supine postures on the ground and in microgravity. Low (LF)- and high (HF)-frequency components of the short-term HRV (< or =3 min) were computed through Fourier spectral analysis of the R-R intervals. Early in microgravity, HR was decreased compared with both standing and supine positions and had returned to the supine value by the end of the flight. In microgravity, overall variability, the LF-to-HF ratio, and RSA amplitude and phase were similar to preflight supine values. Immediately postflight, HR increased by approximately 15% and remained elevated 15 days after landing. LF/HF was increased, suggesting an increased sympathetic control of HR standing. The overall variability and RSA amplitude in supine decreased postflight, suggesting that vagal tone decreased, which coupled with the decrease in RSA phase shift suggests that this was the result of an adaptation of autonomic control of HR to microgravity. In addition, these alterations persisted for at least 15 days after return to normal gravity (1G).

  1. Microgravity alters respiratory sinus arrhythmia and short-term heart rate variability in humans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Migeotte, P-F; Prisk, G. Kim; Paiva, M.; West, J. B. (Principal Investigator)

    2003-01-01

    We studied heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in four male subjects before, during, and after 16 days of spaceflight. The electrocardiogram and respiration were recorded during two periods of 4 min controlled breathing at 7.5 and 15 breaths/min in standing and supine postures on the ground and in microgravity. Low (LF)- and high (HF)-frequency components of the short-term HRV (< or =3 min) were computed through Fourier spectral analysis of the R-R intervals. Early in microgravity, HR was decreased compared with both standing and supine positions and had returned to the supine value by the end of the flight. In microgravity, overall variability, the LF-to-HF ratio, and RSA amplitude and phase were similar to preflight supine values. Immediately postflight, HR increased by approximately 15% and remained elevated 15 days after landing. LF/HF was increased, suggesting an increased sympathetic control of HR standing. The overall variability and RSA amplitude in supine decreased postflight, suggesting that vagal tone decreased, which coupled with the decrease in RSA phase shift suggests that this was the result of an adaptation of autonomic control of HR to microgravity. In addition, these alterations persisted for at least 15 days after return to normal gravity (1G).

  2. Long and Short Term Variability of the Main Physical Parameters in the Coastal Area of the SE Baltic Proper

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mingelaite, Toma; Rukseniene, Viktorija; Dailidiene, Inga

    2015-04-01

    Keywords: SE Baltic Sea, coastal upwelling, IR Remote Sensing The memory of the ocean and seas of atmospheric forcing events contributes to the long-term climate change. Intensifying climate change processes in the North Atlantic region including Baltic Sea has drawn widespread interest, as a changing water temperature has ecological, economic and social impact in coastal areas of the Europe seas. In this work we analyse long and short term variability of the main physical parameters in the coastal area of the South Eastern Baltic Sea Proper. The analysis of long term variability is based on monitoring data measured in the South Eastern Baltic Sea for the last 50 years. The main focus of the long term variability is changes of hydro meteorological parameters relevant to the observed changes in the climate.The water salinity variations in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon, a shallow and enclosed sub-basin of the Baltic Sea, were analysed along with the time series of some related hydroclimatic factors. The short term water temperature and salinity variations were analysed with a strong focus on coastal upwelling events. Combining both remote sensing and in situ monitoring data physical parameters such as vertical salinity variations during upwelling events was analysed. The coastal upwelling in the SE Baltic Sea coast, depending on its scale and intensity, may lead to an intrusion of colder and saltier marine waters to the Curonian Lagoon resulting in hydrodynamic changes and pronounced temperature drop extending for 30-40 km further down the Lagoon. The study results show that increasing trends of water level, air and water temperature, and decreasing ice cover duration are related to the changes in meso-scale atmospheric circulation, and more specifically, to the changes in regional and local wind regime climate. That is in a good agreement with the increasing trends in local higher intensity of westerly winds, and with the winter

  3. Short-Term Temporal Variability in Airborne Bacterial and Fungal Populations▿

    PubMed Central

    Fierer, Noah; Liu, Zongzhi; Rodríguez-Hernández, Mari; Knight, Rob; Henn, Matthew; Hernandez, Mark T.

    2008-01-01

    Airborne microorganisms have been studied for centuries, but the majority of this research has relied on cultivation-dependent surveys that may not capture all of the microbial diversity in the atmosphere. As a result, our understanding of airborne microbial ecology is limited despite the relevance of airborne microbes to human health, various ecosystem functions, and environmental quality. Cultivation-independent surveys of small-subunit rRNA genes were conducted in order to identify the types of airborne bacteria and fungi found at a single site (Boulder, CO) and the temporal variability in the microbial assemblages over an 8-day period. We found that the air samples were dominated by ascomycete fungi of the Hypocreales order and a diverse array of bacteria, including members of the proteobacterial and Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides groups that are commonly found in comparable culture-independent surveys of airborne bacteria. Bacterium/fungus ratios varied by 2 orders of magnitude over the sampling period, and we observed large shifts in the phylogenetic diversity of bacteria present in the air samples collected on different dates, shifts that were not likely to be related to local meteorological conditions. We observed more phylogenetic similarity between bacteria collected from geographically distant sites than between bacteria collected from the same site on different days. These results suggest that outdoor air may harbor similar types of bacteria regardless of location and that the short-term temporal variability in airborne bacterial assemblages can be very large. PMID:17981945

  4. The origin and significance of short-term variability of semivolatile contaminants in air.

    PubMed

    MacLeod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin; Podey, Heike; Jones, Kevin C; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2007-05-01

    Persistent semivolatile contaminants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) cycle between air and surface media in the environment. At different locations and times, PCB concentrations in air over a diel (24-hour) period have been observed to have maxima either during the day or at night. These observations have been interpreted as evidence of temperature-mediated air-surface exchange and of degrading reactions with hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. However, a general explanation of the processes responsible for the observed diel variability in concentrations has not been provided. Here, we interpret diel monitoring data using a multimedia mass balance model parametrized with local data on temperature, wind speed, atmospheric mixing height, and hydroxyl radical concentrations. We demonstrate that four factors are sufficient to account for the variability of PCB concentrations in air over a diel period; temperature, local atmospheric stability, hydroxyl radical concentration, and source type. We apply the model to re-interpret past diel monitoring studies and find that the observed patterns of concentrations can be rationalized by consideration of these factors. Using insights from this study, future diel monitoring campaigns can be targeted to observe the influence of specific fate and transport processes. Such studies will contribute to more accurate understanding of the processes controlling the short-term local, and long-term global fate of persistent semivolatile contaminants.

  5. Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hittinger, Eric Stephen

    profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

  6. Short-term variability of gamma radiation at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic facility (Azores).

    PubMed

    Barbosa, S M; Miranda, P; Azevedo, E B

    2017-06-01

    This work addresses the short-term variability of gamma radiation measured continuously at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) facility located in the Graciosa island (Azores, 39N; 28W), a fixed site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement programme (ARM). The temporal variability of gamma radiation is characterized by occasional anomalies over a slowly-varying signal. Sharp peaks lasting typically 2-4 h are coincident with heavy precipitation and result from the scavenging effect of precipitation bringing radon progeny from the upper levels to the ground surface. However the connection between gamma variability and precipitation is not straightforward as a result of the complex interplay of factors such as the precipitation intensity, the PBL height, the cloud's base height and thickness, or the air mass origin and atmospheric concentration of sub-micron aerosols, which influence the scavenging processes and therefore the concentration of radon progeny. Convective precipitation associated with cumuliform clouds forming under conditions of warming of the ground relative to the air does not produce enhancements in gamma radiation, since the drop growing process is dominated by the fast accretion of liquid water, resulting in the reduction of the concentration of radionuclides by dilution. Events of convective precipitation further contribute to a reduction in gamma counts by inhibiting radon release from the soil surface and by attenuating gamma rays from all gamma-emitting elements on the ground. Anomalies occurring in the absence of precipitation are found to be associated with a diurnal cycle of maximum gamma counts before sunrise decreasing to a minimum in the evening, which are observed in conditions of thermal stability and very weak winds enabling the build-up of near surface radon progeny during the night. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Validity of the ithlete™ Smart Phone Application for Determining Ultra-Short-Term Heart Rate Variability.

    PubMed

    Flatt, Andrew A; Esco, Michael R

    2013-12-18

    The purpose of this investigation was to cross-validate the ithlete™ heart rate variability smart phone application with an electrocardiograph for determining ultra-short-term root mean square of successive R-R intervals. The root mean square of successive R-R intervals was simultaneously determined via electrocardiograph and ithlete™ at rest in twenty five healthy participants. There were no significant differences between the electrocardiograph and ithlete™ derived root mean square of successive R-R interval values (p > 0.05) and the correlation was near perfect (r = 0.99, p < 0.001). In addition, the ithlete™ revealed a Standard Error of the Estimate of 1.47 and Bland Altman plot showed that the limits of agreement ranged from 2.57 below to 2.63 above the constant error of -0.03. In conclusion, the ithlete™ appeared to provide a suitably accurate measure of root mean square of successive R-R intervals when compared to the electrocardiograph measures obtained in the laboratory within the current sample of healthy adult participants. The current study lays groundwork for future research determining the efficacy of ithlete™ for reflecting athletic training status over a chronic conditioning period.

  8. Validity of the ithlete™ Smart Phone Application for Determining Ultra-Short-Term Heart Rate Variability

    PubMed Central

    Flatt, Andrew A.; Esco, Michael R.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to cross-validate the ithlete™ heart rate variability smart phone application with an electrocardiograph for determining ultra-short-term root mean square of successive R-R intervals. The root mean square of successive R-R intervals was simultaneously determined via electrocardiograph and ithlete™ at rest in twenty five healthy participants. There were no significant differences between the electrocardiograph and ithlete™ derived root mean square of successive R-R interval values (p > 0.05) and the correlation was near perfect (r = 0.99, p < 0.001). In addition, the ithlete™ revealed a Standard Error of the Estimate of 1.47 and Bland Altman plot showed that the limits of agreement ranged from 2.57 below to 2.63 above the constant error of −0.03. In conclusion, the ithlete™ appeared to provide a suitably accurate measure of root mean square of successive R-R intervals when compared to the electrocardiograph measures obtained in the laboratory within the current sample of healthy adult participants. The current study lays groundwork for future research determining the efficacy of ithlete™ for reflecting athletic training status over a chronic conditioning period. PMID:24511344

  9. The Performance of Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in the Detection of Congestive Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Allan Kardec; Ohnishi, Noboru

    2016-01-01

    Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a cardiac disease associated with the decreasing capacity of the cardiac output. It has been shown that the CHF is the main cause of the cardiac death around the world. Some works proposed to discriminate CHF subjects from healthy subjects using either electrocardiogram (ECG) or heart rate variability (HRV) from long-term recordings. In this work, we propose an alternative framework to discriminate CHF from healthy subjects by using HRV short-term intervals based on 256 RR continuous samples. Our framework uses a matching pursuit algorithm based on Gabor functions. From the selected Gabor functions, we derived a set of features that are inputted into a hybrid framework which uses a genetic algorithm and k-nearest neighbour classifier to select a subset of features that has the best classification performance. The performance of the framework is analyzed using both Fantasia and CHF database from Physionet archives which are, respectively, composed of 40 healthy volunteers and 29 subjects. From a set of nonstandard 16 features, the proposed framework reaches an overall accuracy of 100% with five features. Our results suggest that the application of hybrid frameworks whose classifier algorithms are based on genetic algorithms has outperformed well-known classifier methods. PMID:27891509

  10. Short Term Variability in Water Column and Porewater Carbon Chemistry on a Tropical Reef

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drupp, P. S.; De Carlo, E. H.; Mackenzie, F. T.; Thompson, R.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    A high-resolution carbon system study has been ongoing on the Kaneohe Bay barrier reef on the island of Oahu, Hawaii since 2008, in an effort to characterize short term variability of the carbon system in the water column and porewaters. In addition, during a 3 week time period from June 4th-24th, multiple sensors were deployed at the CRIMP-2 MAPCO2 buoy and discrete bottle samples were collected frequently, including once an hour for a period of 48 hours. In-situ sensors measured pCO2, pH, temperature and salinity at the CRIMP-2 location. Dissolved inorganic carbon to total alkalinity ratios indicate a reef system where primary production slightly exceeds calcification, consistent with previous studies on the reef. A second MAP-CO2 buoy located outside the bay (Kaneohe Buoy) also measured pCO2 and pH to serve as an end member point for water entering the reef system. Porewater has been collected at varying depths in order to determine the effect of overlying water conditions on the carbonic-acid system chemistry. Porewater alkalinity appears to vary with changes in overlying water column chemistry and physical forcings such as wind and current speeds, which influence flushing rates and ventilation, and calcium and magnesium data suggests dissolution of soluble magnesian calcites concurrently with precipitation of calcites.

  11. Short-term variability of aragonite saturation state in the central Mid-Atlantic Bight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yuan-Yuan; Cai, Wei-Jun; Gao, Yonghui; Wanninkhof, Rik; Salisbury, Joseph; Chen, Baoshan; Reimer, Janet J.; Gonski, Stephen; Hussain, Najid

    2017-05-01

    The uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere has resulted in a decrease in seawater aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), which affects the health of carbonate-bearing organisms and the marine ecosystem. A substantial short-term variability of surface water Ωarag, with an increase of up to 0.32, was observed in the central Mid-Atlantic Bight off the Delaware and the Chesapeake Bays over a short period of 10 days in summer 2015. High-frequency underway measurements for temperature, salinity, percentage saturation of dissolved oxygen, oxygen to argon ratio, pH, fCO2, and measurements based on discrete samples for pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, and total alkalinity are used to investigate how physical and biogeochemical processes contribute to the changes of Ωarag. Quantitative analyses show that physical advection and mixing processes are the dominant forces for higher Ωarag in slope waters while biological carbon removal and CO2 degassing contribute to increased Ωarag in shelf waters.

  12. Short-term variability on the surface of (1) Ceres⋆. A changing amount of water ice?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perna, D.; Kaňuchová, Z.; Ieva, S.; Fornasier, S.; Barucci, M. A.; Lantz, C.; Dotto, E.; Strazzulla, G.

    2015-03-01

    Context. The dwarf planet (1) Ceres - next target of the NASA Dawn mission - is the largest body in the asteroid main belt. Although several observations of this body have been performed so far, the presence of surface water ice is still questioned. Aims: Our goal is to better understand the surface composition of Ceres and to constrain the presence of exposed water ice. Methods: We acquired new visible and near-infrared spectra at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (La Palma, Spain), and reanalyzed literature spectra in the 3-μm region. Results: We obtained the first rotationally resolved spectroscopic observations of Ceres at visible wavelengths. Visible spectra taken one month apart at almost the same planetocentric coordinates show a significant slope variation (up to 3%/103Å). A faint absorption centered at 0.67 μm, possibly due to aqueous alteration, is detected in a subset of our spectra. The various explanations in the literature for the 3.06-μm feature can be interpreted as due to a variable amount of surface water ice at different epochs. Conclusions: The remarkable short-term temporal variability of the visible spectral slope and the changing shape of the 3.06-μm band can be hints of different amounts of water ice exposed on the surface of Ceres. This would agree with the recent detection by the Herschel Space Observatory of localized and transient sources of water vapor over this dwarf planet. Based on observations made with the Italian Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG) operated on the island of La Palma by the Fundación Galileo Galilei of the INAF (Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica) at the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias.Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  13. Periodization effects during short-term resistance training with equated exercise variables in females.

    PubMed

    Pelzer, Thiemo; Ullrich, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mark

    2017-03-01

    During resistance training, volume and load can be altered either gradually (traditional periodization: TP) or with frequent changes between subsequent sessions (daily undulating periodization: DUP). We hypothesized that the periodization model employed would not impact upon training-induced adaptations when exercise variables are equated. Nineteen females (22.0 years, moderate resistance training experience of 27.9 months) performed 6 weeks of knee extensor training with 3 weekly sessions exercising one leg using TP and the contralateral leg using DUP. Training load varied between 40, 60, and 80% of one repetition maximum (1RM). Volume, range of motion, and time under tension were equated for each leg with a biofeedback software. Dynamometry, surface EMG and ultrasonography were used to determine temporal changes of knee extensor maximum voluntary strength (MVC), neural drive of the M. quadriceps femoris (QF) and vastus lateralis (VL) and rectus femoris (RF) muscle architecture. Significant (P < 0.05) gains for isometric (TP 15%, DUP 13%) and isokinetic-concentric (TP 8%, DUP 10%) MVC and knee extensor 1RM (TP 18%, DUP 24%) occurred post training. VL and RF-muscle thickness showed significant (P < 0.05) increases ranging from 12 to 20% for TP and from 13 to 19% for DUP. Furthermore, significant (P < 0.05) increases in VL-pennation angle and VL-fascicle length occurred in both legs while QF EMG remained unchanged. No significant temporal differences were found between both models, displaying similar small to large effect sizes. Periodization is no adaptation trigger during short-term resistance training with equated exercise variables.

  14. Connectivity clues from short-term variability in settlement and geochemical tags of mytilid mussels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fodrie, F. Joel; Becker, Bonnie J.; Levin, Lisa A.; Gruenthal, Kristen; McMillan, Pat A.

    2011-01-01

    The use of geochemical tags in calcified structures of fish and invertebrates is an exciting tool for investigating larval population connectivity. Tag evaluation over relatively short intervals (weeks) may detect environmental and ecological variability at a temporal scale highly relevant to larval transport and settlement. We collected newly settled mussels ( Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis) weekly during winter/spring of 2002 along the coast of San Diego, CA, USA, at sites on the exposed coast (SIO) and in a protected coastal bay (HI), to investigate temporal patterns of geochemical tags in mussel shells. Analyses of post-settlement shell via LA-ICP-MS revealed statistically significant temporal variability for all elements we examined (Mg, Mn, Cu, Sr, Cd, Ba, Pb and U). Despite this, our ability to distinguish multielemental signatures between sites was largely conserved. Throughout our 13-week study, SIO and HI mussels could be chemically distinguished from one another in 78-87% of all cases. Settlement varied between 2 and 27 settlers gram-byssus -1 week -1 at SIO and HI, and both sites were characterized by 2-3 weeks with "high" settlement. Geochemical tags recorded in early larval shell of newly settled mussels differed between "high" and "low" settlement weeks at both sites (MANOVA), driven by Mg and Sr at SIO (p = 0.013) and Sr, Cd, Ba and Pb at HI (p < 0.001). These data imply that shifts in larval sources or transport corridors were responsible for observed settlement variation, rather than increased larval production. In particular, increased settlement at HI was observed concurrent with the appearance of geochemical tags (e.g., elevated Cd), suggesting that those larvae were retained in upwelled water near the mouth of the bay. Such shifts may reflect short-term changes in connectivity among sites due to altered transport corridors, and influence the demography of local populations.

  15. A simple tropical atmosphere model of relevance to short-term climate variations

    SciTech Connect

    Bin Wang; Tianming Li )

    1993-01-15

    This tropical atmosphere model is suitable for modeling the annual cycle and short-term climate fluctuations in sole response to the thermal forcing from the underlying surface, especially the ocean surface. The present model consists of a well-mixed planetary boundary layer and a free troposphere represented by the gravest baroclinic mode. The model dynamics involves active interactions between the boundary-layer flow driven by the momentum forcing associated with sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and the free tropospheric flow stimulated by diabatic heating controlled by the thermal effects of SST. This process is essential for modeling Pacific basinwide low-level circulations. The convective heating is parameterized by a SST-dependent conditional heating scheme based upon the proposition that the potential convective instability increases with SST in a nonlinear fashion. The precipitation pattern and intensity, the trade winds and associated subtropical highs, and the near-equatorial trough can be simulated. The thermal contrast between oceans and continents has a profound influence on the circulation near landmasses. Changes in land surface temperature do not exert significant influence on remote oceanic regions. Both the ITCZ and SPCZ primarily originate from the inhomogeneity of ocean surface thermal conditions. The continents of South and North America contribute to the formation of these oceanic convergence zones through indirect boundary effects that support coastal upwelling changing the SST distribution. The diagnosis of observed surface wind and pressure fields indicates that the nonlinear advection of momentum is generally negligible in the boundary-layer momentum balance. The large SST gradients in the supbtropics play an important role in forcing rotational and cross-isobaric winds. 41 refs., 12 figs.

  16. Short-term variability of a sample of 29 trans-Neptunian objects and Centaurs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirouin, A.; Ortiz, J. L.; Duffard, R.; Santos-Sanz, P.; Aceituno, F. J.; Morales, N.

    2010-11-01

    Aims: We attempt to increase the number of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) whose short-term variability has been studied and compile a high quality database with the least possible biases, which may be used to perform statistical analyses. Methods: We performed broadband CCD photometric observations using several telescopes (the 1.5 m telescope at Sierra Nevada Observatory, the 2.2 m Calar Alto telescope and the 2.5 m INT on La Palma). Results: We present the results of 6 years of observations, reduced and analyzed with the same tools in a systematic way. We report completely new data on 15 objects, for 5 objects we present a new analysis of previously published results plus additional data and for 9 objects we present a new analysis of data already published. Lightcurves, possible rotation periods, and photometric amplitudes are reported for all of them. The photometric variability is smaller than previously thought: the mean amplitude of our sample is 0.1 mag and only around 15% of our sample has a larger variability than 0.15 mag. The smaller variability seems to be caused by a bias of previous observations. We find a very weak trend of faster spinning objects towards smaller sizes, which appears to be consistent with the smaller objects being more collisionally evolved, but may also be a specific feature of the Centaurs, the smallest objects in our sample. We also find that the smaller the objects, the larger their amplitude, which is also consistent with the idea that small objects are more collisionally evolved and thus more deformed. Average rotation rates from our work are 7.5 h for the whole sample, 7.6 h for the TNOs alone and 7.3 h for the Centaurs. Maxwellian fits to the period distribution yield similar results. Table 1 and Appendix are only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgTable 3 is available in electronic form in the Center of astronomical Data of Strasbourg cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb

  17. Application of the time-delay integration method: Survey observations of geosynchronous orbit objects and short-term variability observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okumura, Shin-ichiro; Yanagisawa, Toshifumi; Nakaya, Hidehiko; Tanaka, Wataru; Nishiyama, Kota; Takahashi, Noritsugu; Yoshikawa, Makoto

    2014-12-01

    "Time-Delay Integration (TDI)" readout technique has been adopted to a mosaic CCD camera equipped with four fully-depleted CCDs. Optical distortion and image deformation due to the TDI operation are discussed. The manner and advantages of the TDI method in survey observations of geosynchronous orbit objects are summarized. We propose a new TDI application method of getting short-term light curves of artificial space objects. This method of detecting a short-term variability can be applied for a variety of objects, ranging from satellites to stars. It can also be used for the light-curve observations of transient objects which might show short-term variability and of which the precise time information is needed.

  18. Short-term variability of heterotrophic bacterioplankton during upwelling off the NW Iberian margin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbosa, A. B.; Galvão, H. M.; Mendes, P. A.; Álvarez-Salgado, X. A.; Figueiras, F. G.; Joint, I.

    2001-11-01

    Short-term variability of heterotrophic bacterioplankton was studied in a recently upwelled water mass at the NW Iberian margin (August 1998). Bacterioplankton abundance (BA), biomass (BB), production (BP), and specific production (SBP) were monitored during two Lagrangian drift experiments, one along the shelf-edge, the other off-shelf along an upwelling filament. Other measurements included chlorophyll a (Chl a), primary production (PP), suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PON), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON). Although primary production was significantly higher during the shelf-edge drift experiment, bacterial biomass in the euphotic zone (2.68 to 22.20μgC.l -1) was not significantly different from that in the offshore filament. In contrast, bacterial production (0.13-3.52μgC.l -1.d -1), estimated using an empirically determined 14C-leucine to carbon conversion factor, and bacterial growth rates (doubling time, DT: 3.9-29.7d), were significantly higher during the shelf-edge drift (BP: 1.50±0.11 versus 0.50±0.02μgC.l -1.d -1; DT: 6.9±0.3 versus 16.2±0.9 d; p<0.01). Depth-integrated BB over the euphotic zone comprised 15±1% of phytoplankton biomass during shelf-edge drift and 39±4% under the more oligotrophic conditions in the filament. However, daily BP to net primary production ratios were not significantly different in the two regions (6±1% versus 7±1%). BA, BB, BP and SBP were enhanced in the later part of the shelf-edge drift following a pronounced increase in both PP and gross DOC production, suggesting that phytoplankton was a source of substrates for bacteria in recently upwelled waters. This contrasted with the filament drift in which short-term variability of bacterioplankton was much less pronounced and there was no correlation between BP and PP. In both regions, SBP and DOC in the euphotic zone were significantly correlated (p<0.005) indicating some regulatory effect of DOC over bacterial activity

  19. Short-term weather variability in Chicago and hospitalizations for Kawasaki disease.

    PubMed

    Checkley, William; Guzman-Cottrill, Judith; Epstein, Leonardo; Innocentini, Nancy; Patz, Jonathan; Shulman, Stanford

    2009-03-01

    : Kawasaki disease exhibits a distinct seasonality, and short-term changes in weather may affect its occurrence. : To investigate the effects of weather variability on the occurrence of this syndrome, we conducted a time-between-events analysis of consecutive admissions for Kawasaki disease to a large pediatric hospital in Chicago. We used gamma regression to model the times between admissions. This is a novel application of gamma regression to model the time between admissions as a function of subject-specific covariates. : We recorded 723 admissions in the 18-year (1986-2003) study period, of which 700 had complete data for analysis. Admissions for Kawasaki disease in Chicago were seasonal: The mean time between admissions was 34% shorter (relative time = 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.81) from January-March than from July-September. In 1998, we recorded a larger number of admissions for Kawasaki disease (n = 65) than in other years (mean n = 37). January-March months of 1998 were warmer by a mean of 3 degrees C (1.5 degrees C-4.4 degrees C) and the mean time between admissions was 48% shorter (relative time = 0.52, 0.36-0.75) than in equivalent periods of other study years. : Our findings show that atypical changes in weather affect the occurrence of Kawasaki disease and are compatible with a link to an infectious trigger. The analysis of interevent times using gamma regression is an alternative to Poisson regression in modeling a time series of sparse daily counts.

  20. Short-term secondhand smoke exposure decreases heart rate variability and increases arrhythmia susceptibility in mice.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chao-Yin; Chow, Drin; Chiamvimonvat, Nipavan; Glatter, Kathryn A; Li, Ning; He, Yuxia; Pinkerton, Kent E; Bonham, Ann C

    2008-08-01

    Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS), a major indoor air pollutant, is linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, including cardiac arrhythmias. However, the mechanisms underlying the epidemiological findings are not well understood. Impaired cardiac autonomic function, indexed by reduced heart rate variability (HRV), may represent an underlying cause. The present study takes advantage of well-defined short-term SHS exposure (3 days, 6 h/day) on HRV and the susceptibility to arrhythmia in mice. With the use of electrocardiograph telemetry recordings in conscious mice, HRV parameters in the time domain were measured during the night after each day of exposure and 24 h after 3 days of exposure to either SHS or filtered air. The susceptibility to arrhythmia was determined after 3 days of exposure. Exposure to a low concentration of SHS [total suspended particle (TSP), 2.4 +/- 3.2; and nicotine, 0.3 +/- 0.1 mg/m(3)] had no significant effect on HRV parameters. In contrast, the exposure to a higher but still environmentally relevant concentration of SHS (TSP, 30 +/- 1; and nicotine, 5 +/- 1 mg/m(3)) significantly reduced HRV starting after the first day of exposure and continuing 24 h after the last day of exposure. Moreover, the exposed mice showed a significant increase in ventricular arrhythmia susceptibility and atrioventricular block. The data suggest that SHS exposure decreased HRV beyond the exposure period and was associated with an increase in arrhythmia susceptibility. The data provide insights into possible mechanisms underlying documented increases in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in humans exposed to SHS.

  1. Short-term effects of agriculture on air pollution and climate in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.

    2008-12-01

    This paper discusses the short-term effects of irrigation and albedo differences due to agriculture on California and Los Angeles air pollution and climate. High-resolution irrigation, land use, soil, albedo, and emission data were applied at the subgrid scale in the nested global-through-urban GATOR-GCMOM model to examine these issues following a comparison of baseline model results with data. In August, irrigation alone was found to increase soil moisture, thereby increasing nighttime but decreasing daytime ground temperatures more, causing a net ground cooling in California and Los Angeles. Agriculture was calculated to increase the albedo of the northern Central Valley but decrease that of the southern valley more relative to nonagricultural land today, offsetting part of the cooling due to irrigation alone. The spatial maximum day-night average August cooling in the Central Valley due to irrigation plus albedo differences from agriculture was 0.9 K at 30 m height and 2.3 K at the ground, in range of an historic 0.74-2.4 K cooling at 2 m attributed to heavily irrigated agriculture in an independent data study. When averaged over all model cells containing >0% irrigation, irrigation alone and irrigation plus albedo differences decreased day-night average 2-m temperatures by 0.44 K and 0.16 K, respectively, indicating greater local than regional effects of agriculture. In the Central Valley, irrigation increased the relative humidity, cloud water, and precipitation, shifting aerosol and soluble gas mass to clouds and rain. In the valley and Los Angeles, agriculture stabilized air, decreasing wind speeds and turbulence, increasing pollution in the absence of rain. Thus, when enhancing clouds and precipitation, agriculture decreased pollution; otherwise, agriculture increased pollution. Agriculture in parts of the polluted eastern Los Angeles basin increased fine particulate matter by ˜2% and ozone by ˜0.1%. All results were robust to a change in the simulation

  2. Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

    2017-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

  3. Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

    2017-04-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

  4. Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Desheng; Zhang, Xulai; Xu, Zhiwei; Cheng, Jian; Xie, Mingyu; Zhang, Heng; Wang, Shusi; Li, Kesheng; Yang, Huihui; Wen, Liying; Wang, Xu; Su, Hong

    2016-08-01

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) are important meteorological indicators closely associated with global climate change. However, up to date, there have been no studies addressing the impacts of both DTR and TCN on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia. We conducted a time-series analysis to assess the relationship between temperature variability and daily schizophrenia onset in Hefei, an inland city in southeast China. Daily meteorological data and emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia from 2005 to 2014 in Hefei were collected. After stratifying by season of birth, Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to examine the relationship between temperature variability and schizophrenia, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, and relative humidity. Our analysis revealed that extreme temperature variability may increase the risk for schizophrenia onset among patients born in spring, while no such association was found in patients born in summer and autumn. In patients born in spring, the relative risks of extremely high DTR comparing the 95th and 99th percentiles with the reference (50th, 10 °C) at 3-day lag were 1.078 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.025-1.135) and 1.159 (95 % CI 1.050-1.279), respectively. For TCN effects, only comparing 99th percentile with reference (50th, 0.7 °C) was significantly associated with emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia (relative risk (RR) 1.111, 95 % CI 1.002-1.231). This study suggested that exposure to extreme temperature variability in short-term may trigger later days of schizophrenia onset for patients born in spring, which may have important implications for developing intervention strategies to prevent large temperature variability exposure.

  5. A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Short-Term Sleep Deprivation on Cognitive Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lim, Julian; Dinges, David F.

    2010-01-01

    A substantial amount of research has been conducted in an effort to understand the impact of short-term (less than 48 hr) total sleep deprivation (SD) on outcomes in various cognitive domains. Despite this wealth of information, there has been disagreement on how these data should be interpreted, arising in part because the relative magnitude of…

  6. A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Short-Term Sleep Deprivation on Cognitive Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lim, Julian; Dinges, David F.

    2010-01-01

    A substantial amount of research has been conducted in an effort to understand the impact of short-term (less than 48 hr) total sleep deprivation (SD) on outcomes in various cognitive domains. Despite this wealth of information, there has been disagreement on how these data should be interpreted, arising in part because the relative magnitude of…

  7. Constraining the long-term climate reponse to stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection by the short-term volcanic climate response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plazzotta, M.; Seferian, R.; Douville, H.; Kravitz, B.; Tilmes, S.; Tjiputra, J.

    2016-12-01

    Rising greenhouse gas emissions are leading to global warming and climate change, which will have multiple impacts on human society. Geoengineering methods like solar radiation management by stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection (SSA-SRM) aim at treating the symptoms of climate change by reducing the global temperature. Since a real-world testing cannot be implemented, Earth System Models (ESMs) are useful tools to assess the climate impacts of such geoengineering methods. However, coordinated simulations performed with the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have shown that climate cooling in response to a continuous injection of 5Tg of SO2 per year under RCP45 future projection (the so-called G4 experiment) differs substantially between ESMs. Here, we employ a volcano analog approach to constrain the climate response in SSA-SRM geoengineering simulations across an ensemble of 10 ESMs. We identify an emergent relationship between the long-term cooling in responses to the mitigation of the clear-sky surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDSCS), and the short-term cooling related to the change in RSDSCS during the major tropical volcanic eruptions observed over the historical period (1850-2005). This relationship explains almost 80% of the multi-model spread. Combined with contemporary observations of the latest volcanic eruptions (satellite observations and model reanalyzes), this relationship provides a tight constraint on the climate impacts of SSA-SRM. We estimate that a continuous injection of SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere will reduce the global average temperature of continental land surface by 0.47 K per W m-2, impacting both hydrological and carbon cycles. Compared with the unconstrained ESMs ensemble (range from 0.32 to 0.92 K per W m-2 ), our estimate represents much higher confidence ways to assess the impacts of SSA-SRM on the climate while ruling the most extreme projections of the unconstrained ensemble extremely unlikely.

  8. Multicolor Near-Infrared Intra-Day and Short-Term Variability of the Blazar S5 0716+714

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Alok C.; Cha, Sang-Mok; Lee, Sungho; Jin, Ho; Pak, Soojong; Cho, Seoung-hyun; Moon, Bongkon; Park, Youngsik; Yuk, In-Soo; Nam, Uk-won; Kyeong, Jaemann

    2008-12-01

    In this paper, we report results of our near-infrared (NIR) photometric variability studies of the BL Lacertae (BL Lac) object S5 0716+714. NIR photometric observations were spread over seven nights during our observing run on 2007 April 2-9 at the 1.8 m telescope equipped with the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute Near-Infrared Camera System and J, H, and Ks filters at Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory, South Korea. We searched for intra-day variability (IDV), short-term variability, and color variability in the BL Lac object. We have not detected any genuine IDV in any of the J, H, and Ks passbands in our observing run. Significant short-term variabilities ~32.6%, 20.5% and 18.2% have been detected in the J, H, and Ks passbands, respectively, and ~11.9% in (J - H) color.

  9. A Simple Tropical Atmosphere Model of Relevance to Short-Term Climate Variations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bin; Li, Tianming

    1993-01-01

    The tropical atmosphere model presented here is suitable for modeling both the annual cycle and short-term (monthly to decadal time scale) climate fluctuations in sole response to the thermal forcing from the underlying surface, especially the ocean surface. The present model consists of a well-mixed planetary boundary layer and a free troposphere represented by the gravest baroclinic mode. The model dynamics involves active interactions between the boundary-layer flow driven by the momentum forcing associated with sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and the free tropospheric flow stimulated by diabatic heating that is controlled by the thermal effects of SST. This process is demonstrated to be essential for modeling Pacific basinwide low-level circulations. The convective heating is parameterized by a SST-dependent conditional heating scheme based upon the proposition that the potential convective instability increases with SST in a nonlinear fashion.The present model integrates the virtue of a Gill-type model with that of a Lindzen-Nigam model and is capable of reproducing both the shallow intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the boundary layer and the deep South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and monsoon troughs in the lower troposphere. The precipitation pattern and intensity, the trade winds and associated subtropical highs, and the near-equatorial trough can also be simulated reasonably well.The thermal contrast between oceans and continents is shown to have a profound influence on the circulation near landmasses. Changes in land surface temperature, however, do not exert significant influence on remote oceanic regions. Both the ITCZ and SPCZ primarily originate from the inhomogeneity of ocean surface thermal conditions. The continents of South and North America contribute to the formation of these oceanic convergence zones through indirect boundary effects that support coastal upwelling changing the SST distribution. The diagnosis of observed surface

  10. Short term response of a peatland to warming and drought - climate manipulation experiment in W Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juszczak, Radosław; Chojnicki, Bogdan; Urbaniak, Marek; Leśny, Jacek; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; Basińska, Anna; Gąbka, Maciej; Stróżecki, Marcin; Samson, Mateusz; Łuców, Dominika; Józefczyk, Damian; Hoffmann, Mathias; Olejnik, Janusz

    2016-04-01

    conditions led to increases in NDVI and LAI, whilst the site exposed to only drought exhibited the lowest LAI. Warming shifted the vegetation species composition by promoting vascular plants (mainly Carex rostrata and C. limosa), which result also correlates positively with nutrient (Ptot, Mn, F, Na, Zn) availability in the peat water. Here, we report short-term responses to increased temperature and diminished precipitation, showing that the combination of these to stressors leads to very different scenario than their individual impacts. Our results further emphasize the need for long term records from field manipulation site on peatland response to climate changes. The Research was co-founded by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development within the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme within the WETMAN project (Central European Wetland Ecosystem Feedbacks to Changing Climate - Field Scale Manipulation, Project ID: 203258, contract No. Pol-Nor/203258/31/2013 (www.wetman.pl). References Fenner N., Freeman Ch. (2011). Nature Geoscience, 4, 895-900 Hoffmann M., et al. (2015). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 200, 30-45 Kimball BA. (2005). Global Change Biology, 11, 2041-2056

  11. Impact of short-term practice of yoga on heart rate variability

    PubMed Central

    Vinay, AV; Venkatesh, D; Ambarish, V

    2016-01-01

    Background: Yoga is a science that facilitates homeostasis, an ancient way of life intended to improve the quality of life of an individual. Practice of yoga is proposed to alter the autonomic nervous system and affect the cardiovascular functioning. This study was intended to assess the influence of short-term practice of yoga for a month on heart rate variability (HRV). Materials and Methods: Totally, 40 healthy male volunteers in the age group of 30–60 years willing to practice yoga for a month were included in the study. HRV was assessed using HRV device (RMS Vagus, India). Preinterventional assessment of HRV was done in these subjects. Practice of yoga that included a set of physical postures (asanas), breathing techniques (pranayama), and meditation (dhyana) were performed for an hour daily for 1 month under the guidance of a certified yoga instructor. Postinterventional assessment of HRV was done. The values were expressed in median and their interquartile range, and statistical analysis was done to compare the changes using Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Results: Thirty-two of 40 subjects recruited for yoga practice completed the study protocol. Analysis of HRV revealed that in time domain parameters, SDNN increased from 33.60 (31.41–44.82) to 42.11 (34.43–57.51), RMSSD increased from 22.00 (16.00–33.80) to 25.6 (17.0–34.8), and PNN50 increased from 2.45 (0.80–15.38) to 7.35 (1.40–18.57) after intervention. In the frequency domain parameters, the low-frequency (LF) power spectrum reduced from 39.30 (25.1–46.25) to 30.40 (22.75–40.62) and LF/high-frequency ratio was reduced from 2.62 (1.91–4.07) to 2.28 (1.4–3.07) after 1 month practice of yoga. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Conclusion: Autonomic balance tilts toward parasympathetic predominance after 1 month practice of yoga. PMID:26865773

  12. A quantitative systematic review of normal values for short-term heart rate variability in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Nunan, David; Sandercock, Gavin R H; Brodie, David A

    2010-11-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is a known risk factor for mortality in both healthy and patient populations. There are currently no normative data for short-term measures of HRV. A thorough review of short-term HRV data published since 1996 was therefore performed. Data from studies published after the 1996 Task Force report (i.e., between January 1997 and September 2008) and reporting short-term measures of HRV obtained in normally healthy individuals were collated and factors underlying discrepant values were identified. Forty-four studies met the pre-set inclusion criteria involving 21,438 participants. Values for short-term HRV measures from the literature were lower than Task Force norms. A degree of homogeneity for common measures of HRV in healthy adults was shown across studies. A number of studies demonstrate large interindividual variations (up to 260,000%), particularly for spectral measures. A number of methodological discrepancies underlined disparate values. These include a systematic failure within the literature (a) to recognize the importance of RR data recognition/editing procedures and (b) to question disparate HRV values observed in normally healthy individuals. A need for large-scale population studies and a review of the Task Force recommendations for short-term HRV that covers the full-age spectrum were identified. Data presented should be used to quantify reference ranges for short-term measures of HRV in healthy adult populations but should be undertaken with reference to methodological factors underlying disparate values. Recommendations for the measurement of HRV require updating to include current technologies.

  13. On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reiter, E. R.

    1979-01-01

    Various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean atmosphere system were studied. A variability pattern of sea surface temperature with a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) was detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's were pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. Interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.

  14. Searching for Short Term Variable Active Galactic Nuclei: A Vital Step Towards Using AGN as Standard Candles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilts, Kelly; Gorjian, Varoujan; Rutherford, Thomas; Kohrs, Russell; Urbanowski, Vincent; Bellusci, Nina; Horton, Savannah; Jones, Dana; Jones, Kaytlyn; Pawelski, Peter; Tranum, Haley; Zhang, Emily

    2017-01-01

    Current models for accretion disk sizes of active galactic nuclei (AGN) do not match the limited observational data available, so there is an active need from the modeling community for many more accretion disk/dusty torus reverberation mapping campaigns with which to better calibrate models. Since short term variable AGN can be more easily monitored for reverberation mapping than long term variable AGN, they can begin to provide data more quickly. This project looked for short term variable AGN in the Young Stellar Object Variability (YSOVAR) survey conducted using the Spitzer Space Telescope. The YSOVAR survey targeted 12 nearby star forming regions for repeated observations. Potential AGN from the YSOVAR data were first selected by color ([3.6] - [4.5] > 0.4) and then by magnitude (m < 14) based on previous Spitzer surveys of known AGN. Since AGN share some similar color characteristics with young stars, images of each YSOVAR region were viewed to remove potential objects near concentrations of known young stellar objects since these were likely also YSOs. The spectral energy distribution (SED) for each remaining potential AGN was then examined for AGN like characteristics. Several potential short term variable AGN were found.

  15. The potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum peatlands.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Maura E; Booth, Robert K

    2011-07-01

    Testate amoebae are a group of moisture-sensitive, shell-producing protozoa that have been widely used as indicators of changes in mean water-table depth within oligotrophic peatlands. However, short-term environmental variability (i.e., sub-annual) also probably influences community composition. The objective of this study was to assess the potential influence of short-term environmental variability on the composition of testate amoeba communities in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands. Testate amoebae and environmental conditions, including hourly measurements of relative humidity within the upper centimeter of the peatland surface, were examined throughout the 2008 growing season at 72 microsites within 11 peatlands of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, USA. Relationships among testate amoeba communities, vegetation, depth to water table, pH, and an index of short-term environmental variability (EVI), were examined using nonmetric multidimensional scaling and correlation analysis. Results suggest that EVI influences testate amoeba communities, with some taxa more abundant under highly variable conditions (e.g., Arcella discoides, Difflugia pulex, and Hyalosphenia subflava) and others more abundant when environmental conditions at the peatland surface were relatively stable (e.g., Archerella flavum and Bullinularia indica). The magnitude of environmental variability experienced at the peatland surface appears to be primarily controlled by vegetation composition and density. In particular, sites with dense Sphagnum cover had lower EVI values than sites with loose-growing Sphagnum or vegetation dominated by vascular plants and/or non-Sphagnum bryophytes. Our results suggest that more environmental information may be inferred from testate amoebae than previously recognized. Knowledge of relationships between testate amoebae and short-term environmental variability should lead to more detailed and refined environmental inferences.

  16. Short-term spatial and temporal variability of disinfection by-product occurrence in small drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Guilherme, Stéphanie; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2015-06-15

    Disinfection by-products (DBPs) constitute a large family of compounds. Trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids are regulated in various countries, but most DBPs are not. Monitoring DBPs can be delicate, especially for small systems, because various factors influence their formation and speciation. Short-term variations of DBPs can be important and particularly difficult for small systems to handle because they require robust treatment and operation processes. According to our knowledge, for the first time, our study covers the short-term variability of regulated and non-regulated DBP occurrence in small systems in the summer. An intensive sampling program was carried out in six small systems in Canada. Systems in the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec were sampled daily at the water treatment plant and at six different locations along the distribution system. Five DBP families were studied: trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, haloacetonitriles, halonitromethanes and haloketones. Results show that there were considerable variations in DBP levels from week to week during the month of study and even from day to day within the week. On a daily basis, DBP levels can fluctuate by 22% to 96%. Likewise, the large number of sampling locations served to observe DBP variations along the distribution system. Observations revealed some degradation and decomposition of non-regulated DBPs never before studied in small systems that are associated with the difficulty these systems experience in maintaining adequate levels of residual disinfectant. Finally, this study reveals that the short term temporal variability of DBPs is also influenced by spatial location along the distribution system. In the short term, DBP levels can fluctuate by 23% at the beginning of the system, compared to 40% at the end. Thus, spatial and temporal variations of DBPs in the short term may make it difficult to select representative locations and periods for DBP monitoring purposes in small

  17. NEW CONSTRAINTS ON THE ORIGIN OF THE SHORT-TERM CYCLICAL VARIABILITY OF THE WOLF-RAYET STAR WR 46

    SciTech Connect

    Henault-Brunet, V.; St-Louis, N.; Marchenko, S. V.; Pollock, A. M. T.; Talavera, A.; Carpano, S. E-mail: stlouis@astro.umontreal.ca E-mail: andy.pollock@esa.int E-mail: scarpano@rssd.esa.int

    2011-07-01

    The Wolf-Rayet star WR 46 is known to exhibit a very complex variability pattern on relatively short timescales of a few hours. Periodic but intermittent radial velocity shifts of optical lines as well as multiple photometric periods have been found in the past. Non-radial pulsations, rapid rotational modulation, or the presence of a putative low-mass companion have been proposed to explain the short-term behavior. In an effort to unveil its true nature, we observed WR 46 with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) over several short-term variability cycles. We found significant variations on a timescale of {approx}8 hr in the far-ultraviolet (FUV) continuum, in the blue edge of the absorption trough of the O VI {lambda}{lambda}1032, 1038 doublet P Cygni profile and in the S VI {lambda}{lambda}933, 944 P Cygni absorption profile. We complemented these observations with X-ray and UV light curves and an X-ray spectrum from archival X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission-Newton Space Telescope (XMM-Newton) data. The X-ray and UV light curves show variations on a timescale similar to the variability found in the FUV. We discuss our results in the context of the different scenarios suggested to explain the short-term variability of this object and reiterate that non-radial pulsations is the scenario most likely to occur.

  18. Modeling short-term variability of semivolatile organic chemicals in air at a local scale: an integrated modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Morselli, Melissa; Ghirardello, Davide; Semplice, Matteo; Di Guardo, Antonio

    2011-05-01

    Monitoring campaigns from different locations have recently shown how air concentrations of persistent semivolatile contaminants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) often exhibit short-term (less than 24 h) variations. The observed patterns have been ascribed to different factors, such as temperature-mediated air-surface exchange and variability of planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and dynamics. Here, we present a new modeling approach developed in order to investigate the short-term variability in air concentrations of organic pollutants at a local scale. A new dynamic multimedia box model is supplied by a meteorological preprocessor (AERMET) with hourly values of air compartment height and wind speed. The resulting model is tested against an existing dataset of PCB air concentrations measured in Zurich, Switzerland. Results show the importance of such modeling approach in elucidating the short- and long-term behavior of semivolatile contaminants in the air/soil system.

  19. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

    2012-05-01

    This study assesses the CMIP5 decadal hindcast/forecast simulations of seven state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled models. Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006. Most of the models overestimate trends, whereby the models predict less warming or even cooling in the earlier decades compared to observations and too much warming in recent decades. All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature over the Indian, North Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans where the externally forced component and low-frequency climate variability is dominant. However, low prediction skill is found over the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is predicted in most of the models with significant skill, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index shows relatively low predictive skill. The multi-model ensemble has in general better-forecast quality than the single-model systems for global mean surface temperature, AMO and PDO.

  20. Heart rate variability: short-term studies are as useful as holter to differentiate diabetic patients from healthy subjects.

    PubMed

    Migliaro, Eduardo R; Contreras, Paola

    2003-10-01

    The definitive incorporation of heart rate variability (HRV) as a clinical tool depends on the development of more confident techniques of measurement. The length of the studies is a critical issue. Whereas Holter studies allow the monitorization at different hours and activities, short-term recordings allow the control of environmental conditions. Recording length is also strongly related to the procedure of analysis; for instance, some time-domain indexes are strongly affected by the duration of the study. Meanwhile, spectral analyses require stationary conditions, only achieved in short-term studies. Our main goal was to determine if HRV indexes obtained from short-term analyses were as useful as those from Holter monitoring for diagnosis of reduced HRV in diabetes. We studied two groups: one with impaired HRV (15 diabetic patients) and another with normal HRV (15 healthy subjects). HRV indexes obtained from 24-hour Holter recordings (SDNN, rMSSD, and the power of LF and HF bands), were correlated with analog indexes obtained from 10-minute digital acquired studies within each group. Besides, we compared the diabetic and control groups using the indexes obtained with both methodologies. The correlation was high (0.70short-term studies (P short-term studies are at least as powerful as Holter to differentiate the diabetic group (impaired HRV) from the control group.

  1. Short-term heart rate variability in asthmatic obese children: effect of exhaustive exercise and different humidity conditions.

    PubMed

    Rezvan, K; Dabidi Roshan, V; Mahmudi, S A

    2015-11-01

    Asthmatic obese children experience changes in functional capacity and autonomic control. Previous heart rate variability (HRV) studies were based on 24-hour recordings, little research has been conducted on the short-term HRV in asthmatic obese children, primarily during physical effort indifferent environmental humidity conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of aerobic activity on short-term HRV in asthmatic obese children under two different environmental humidity conditions. Ten obese boys with mild asthma as experimental group and 15 obese healthy boys with the same conditions were involved as a control group. Protocol included progressive and exhaustive aerobic activities on a calibrated ergometer pedal bicycle in two various environmental humidity 35±5% and 65±5%. HRV was measured by PADSY MEDSET Holter monitoring device during three phases; pre-test, mid-test and post-test. Then, short-term HRV was assessed from calculation of the mean R-R interval measured on HRV at each phases. HRV significantly decreased at mid-test and post-test among asthmatic and health children. However, the aforesaid changes were significantly higher in the asthmatic than health children following. Moreover, decrease of short-term HRV was significantly greater in the 35±5% than 65±5% environmental humidity. Our findings suggest from the autonomic standpoint, asthmatic and non-asthmatic children respond differently to exhaustive exercise induced stress. Aerobic exercise at an environment with high humidity compared with the low humidity appears to have additional benefits on short-term HRV in that it enhances the parasympathetic and autonomic modulation of the heart in asthmatic obese children.

  2. Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

    2013-10-01

    The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

  3. The short-term impact of managed realignment on soil environmental variables and hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackwell, M. S. A.; Hogan, D. V.; Maltby, E.

    2004-04-01

    In July 2000 a flood defence embankment protecting abandoned agricultural land in the estuary of the River Torridge, Devon, UK, was breached as part of a managed realignment (MR) project. The objective was to restore the agricultural land, reclaimed from saltmarsh some 200 years previously, to its former habitat. Changes to the soil hydrological regime and alteration of the soil environment at the site were studied. The most significant observed impact at the MR site was the change in flooding regime, with regular tidal inundation occurring to a maximum depth of 52 cm during spring tides. Prior to the realignment, soil water table fluctuations were linked to patterns of spring and neap tides. Post-realignment, a change in mean water table height of more than 50 cm was observed at the MR site, and soil redox potential at 5 cm depth was reduced by over 700 mV immediately following reflooding, changing the soil environment from an oxidised to a reduced environment. Topsoil water (collected from 10 cm depth) demonstrated large, short-term reductions in pH. Prior to realignment topsoil water pH ranged from 6.6 to 8.7, but following realignment remained below 5 for approximately nine weeks, reaching a minimum of 3.3. Short-term changes in conductivity and NH 4+ concentrations in topsoil water also occurred, conductivity rising from <2000 μS to >40,000 μS following realignment, while NH 4-N concentrations rose from 0.10 mg l -1 to 10.05 mg l -1. Cotton tensile strength loss (CTSL) reflected these changes, exhibiting large decreases in decomposition rates at 5-10 cm depth immediately following the realignment. These results have implications for the management of MR projects, and for the health and quality of the estuary in general.

  4. Dynamical downscaling of short-term climate fluctuations: On the benefits of precipitation assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, Ana M. B.; Roads, John O.

    2009-06-01

    Regional downscaling has proven useful in adding details to the global solution. However, the parameterized physical processes can systematically deviate the large-scale features in the regional solution. To demonstrate the precipitation assimilation beneficial impact on the dynamical downscaling, a regional spectral model driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (NCEP/DOE AMIP-II) Reanalysis was used to downscale the large-scale features over most of North America. The North American Regional Reanalysis provided the 3-hourly precipitation rates that the regional model employed to simulate two opposite extreme climate events: the upper Mississippi River Basin 1988 drought and 1993 floods. In addition to these two cases, the 1990 summer anomalous precipitation over the same area was also investigated. Precipitation assimilation positively influences the dynamical downscaling of these extreme climate events. The regional model when assimilating precipitation was particularly successful in reproducing the observed precipitation patterns over the central United States, where the large-scale circulation affects the precipitation variability. Particularly for the flood year, the intensity and location of the subtropical upper-level westerly jet and its associated transverse circulations were noticeably improved in the regional simulations, where the heavy precipitation core was found. This also suggests that the cumulus convection scheme, in this case the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert parameterization scheme, can cause the large-scale features to drift during the regional simulation, and precipitation assimilation reduces this departure from the global solution. These changes in the upper-level winds were also followed by better characterization of the drought of 1988 as well as the 1990 summer heavy precipitation simulation, in comparison to regional control simulations, where precipitation

  5. Reliability of ultra-short-term analysis as a surrogate of standard 5-min analysis of heart rate variability.

    PubMed

    Baek, Hyun Jae; Cho, Chul-Ho; Cho, Jaegeol; Woo, Jong-Min

    2015-05-01

    Despite the increasing demands of ultra-short-term heart rate (HR) variability (HRV) for practical ambulatory applications, there have been few studies that have investigated R-R interval recording for less than 5 min for HRV analysis. It has not been extensively validated, and, currently, no normative data for ultra-short-term HRV exist. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between standard 5-min and ultra-short-term HRV by collecting data from a large population consisting of a wide range of age groups. The 5-min R-R interval series were obtained from 467 healthy volunteers ranging from 8 to 69 years of age. The original R-R interval was segmented into 270, 240, 210, 180, 150, 120, 90, 60, 30, 20, and 10 s, and those HRV features most commonly reported within the literature were calculated and compared with those using the original 5-min R-R interval series. The Pearson correlation r, the p value by the Kruskal-Wallis test, and the Bland-Altman plot analysis computations were performed for each HRV variable calculated using different lengths of R-R interval series. For each HRV variable, the minimum length of the R-R interval required to reliably estimate the 5-min HRV was identified. The results were different for each age group: 10 s for HR, 20 s for high-frequency, 30 s for root mean square difference, 60 s for proportion of the number of interval differences of successive NN intervals greater than 50 ms divided by total number of NNs, 90 s for low-frequency, normalized low-frequency, normalized high-frequency, and low-frequency/high-frequency, 240 s for standard deviation of successive NN interval differences and time-frequency, and 270 s for very low-frequency. In addition, the reference value for short-term HRV from normal healthy subjects was also presented. Some HRV variables calculated from R-R interval series shorter than 5 min were well matched with those calculated from the 5-min R-R interval. Thus, ultra-short-term

  6. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring-derived short-term blood pressure variability is increased in Cushing's syndrome.

    PubMed

    Rebellato, Andrea; Grillo, Andrea; Dassie, Francesca; Sonino, Nicoletta; Maffei, Pietro; Martini, Chiara; Paoletta, Agostino; Fabris, Bruno; Carretta, Renzo; Fallo, Francesco

    2014-11-01

    Cushing's syndrome is associated with high cardiovascular morbility and mortality. Blood pressure (BP) variability within a 24-h period is increasingly recognized as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk. The aim of our study was to investigate the short-term BP variability indices in Cushing's syndrome. Twenty-five patients with Cushing's syndrome (mean age 49 ± 13 years, 4 males; 21 Cushing's disease and 4 adrenal adenoma patients) underwent 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and evaluation of cardiovascular risk factors. Cushing patients were divided into 8 normotensive (NOR-CUSH) and 17 hypertensive (HYP-CUSH) patients and were compared with 20 normotensive (NOR-CTR) and 20 hypertensive (HYP-CTR) age-, sex-, and BMI-matched control subjects. Short-term BP variability was derived from ABPM and calculated as the following: (1) standard deviation (SD) of 24-h, daytime, and nighttime BP; (2) 24-h weighted SD of BP; and (3) average real variability (ARV), i.e., the average of the absolute differences between consecutive BP measurements over 24 h. In comparison with controls, patients with Cushing's syndrome, either normotensive or hypertensive, had higher 24-h and daytime SD of BP, as well as higher 24-h weighted SD and ARV of BP (P = 0.03 to P < 0.0001). No difference in metabolic parameters was observed between NOR-CTR and NOR-CUSH or between HYP-CTR and HYP-CUSH subgroups. ABPM-derived short-term BP variability is increased in Cushing's syndrome, independent of BP elevation. It may represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor in this disease. The role of excess cortisol in BP variability has to be further clarified.

  7. Short-Term Relationship between Hip Fracture and Weather Conditions in Two Spanish Health Areas with Different Climates

    PubMed Central

    Tenías, José María; Estarlich, Marisa; Crespo, Eusebio; Román-Ortiz, Carmen; Arias-Arias, Angel; Ballester, Ferran

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate differences in the short-term relationship between weather conditions and the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 65 and over among two regions of Spain. Methods. Hip fracture incidence was calculated for the years 2000–2008 for residents of Health Area 14 in Valencian Community (Mediterranean climate) and the “Mancha Centro” Health Area in Castilla-La Mancha (inland climate), Spain. The relationship between hip fracture incidence and weather was analyzed with a case-crossover design and explored in subgroups defined by sex, age, and fracture type. Results. In the inland area, a positive and significant tendency for hip fracture incidence was observed (annual increase: 1.5%) whereas in the Mediterranean area a seasonal increase of 9% was noted in autumn and winter with respect to spring. Weather conditions, especially wind, were significantly associated with hip fracture incidence: days with more frequent windy periods and/or a greater wind velocity were associated with an increase in hip fracture incidence of 51% in the Mediterranean area and 44% in the inland area. Conclusions. Hip fracture incidence exhibits seasonal changes that differ between the Mediterranean and inland areas. The short-term relationship with climate, although similar in both areas, may partly explain these seasonal changes. PMID:25759722

  8. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production

  9. Assessing variability and comparing short-term biomarkers of styrene exposure using a repeated measurements approach.

    PubMed

    Fustinoni, S; Manini, P; Campo, L; De Palma, G; Andreoli, R; Mutti, A; Bertazzi, P A; Rappaport, S M

    2010-01-15

    The aim of this work is to compare several short-term biomarkers of styrene exposure, namely urinary styrene (StyU), mercapturic acids (M1+M2), mandelic acid (MA), phenylglyoxylic acid (PGA), phenylglycine (PHG), and 4-vinylphenol conjugates (VP), for use as biomarkers of exposure in epidemiologic studies. A repeated measurements protocol (typically 4 measurements per worker over 6 weeks) was applied to measure airborne styrene (StyA) and urinary biomarkers in 10 varnish and 8 fiberglass reinforced plastic workers. Estimated geometric mean personal exposures to StyA were 2.96mg/m(3) in varnish workers and 15.7mg/m(3) in plastic workers. The corresponding levels of StyU, M1+M2, MA, PGA, MA+PGA, PHG and VP were 5.13microg/L, 0.111, 38.2, 22.7, 62.6, 0.978, and 3.97mg/g creatinine in varnish workers and 8.38microg/L, 0.303, 146, 83.4, 232, 2.85 and 3.97mg/g creatinine in plastic workers. Within-worker (sigma(wY)(2)) and between-worker (sigma(bY)(2)) variance components were estimated from the log-transformed data as were the corresponding fold ranges containing 95% of the respective lognormal distributions of daily levels ((w)R(0.95)) and subject-specific mean levels ((b)R(0.95)). Estimates of (w)R(0.95) (range: 4-26) were generally smaller than those of (b)R(0.95) (range: 5-790) for both environmental and biological markers; this indicates that exposures varied much more between workers than within workers in these groups. Since attenuation bias in an estimated exposure-response relationship increases with the variance ratio lambda=sigma(wY)(2)/sigma(bY)(2), we estimated values of lambda for all exposure measures in our study. Values of lambda were typically much less than one (median=0.220) and ranged from 0.089 for M1+M2 in plastic workers to 1.38 for PHG in varnish workers. Since values of lambda were 0.147 and 0.271 for StyA in varnish workers and plastic workers, respectively, compared to 0.178 and 0.210 for MA in the same groups, our results suggest that either

  10. Simulating small-scale climate change effects-lessons from a short-term field manipulation experiment on grassland arthropods.

    PubMed

    Buchholz, Sascha; Rolfsmeyer, Dorothee; Schirmel, Jens

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is expected to cause major consequences on biodiversity. Understanding species-specific reactions, such as species shifts, species declines, and changes in population dynamics is a key issue to quantify large-scale impacts of climate change on biotic communities. As it is often impossible or at least impracticable to conduct large-scale experiments on biotic responses to climate change, studies at a smaller scale may be a useful alternative. In our study, we therefore tested responses of grassland arthropods (carabid beetles, spiders, grasshoppers) to simulated climate change in terms of species activity densities and diversity. We conducted a controlled field experiment by changing water and microclimatic conditions at a small scale (16 m(2) ). Roof constructions were used to increase drought-like conditions, whereas water supply was enhanced by irrigation. In all, 2 038 carabid beetles (36 species), 4 893 spiders (65 species), and 303 Orthoptera (4 species) were caught using pitfall traps from May to August, 2010. During our experiment, we created an artificial small-scale climate change; and statistics revealed that these changes had short-term effects on the total number of individuals and Simpson diversity of the studied arthropod groups. Moreover, our results showed that certain species might react very quickly to climate change in terms of activity densities, which in turn might influence diversity due to shifts in abundance patterns. Finally, we devised methodological improvements that may further enhance the validity of future studies. © 2012 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  11. Flexible Decision Variables in Short-term Operation of Reservoirs Using Dimension Reduction Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseini, P.; Chen, D.; Leon, A.; Gibson, N. L.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model to find flexible decision variables (e.g., turbine flows) in reservoir operation. Flexible decision variables could give the decision maker a range of options instead of single deterministic optimal solutions. In our formulation, each decision variable is modeled by a random variable, and the eventual decision will be but one realization. The optimal probability distribution is found by maximizing the expected value of the objective. Finding flexible decision variables can be computationally intensive especially for multi-reservoir systems. To increase the computational speed of the optimization, a dimension reduction method is used, namely the Karhunen Loe`ve (KL) expansion. KL expansion is closely related to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and can be used to efficiently represent the random processes by only a few random variables. When using this method, deterministic optimal Pareto solutions are used as the initial population for the optimization. The Grand Coulee reservoir, located in the Columbia River, is used as the test case. The results show that the decision space can be represented with very few random variables and the computational time can therefore be drastically reduced.

  12. Early Pleistocene short-term intermediate water mass variability influences Carbonate Mound development in the NE Atlantic (IODP Site 1317)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raddatz, J.; Rüggeberg, A.; Margreth, S.; Liebetrau, V.; Dullo, W.; Eisenhauer, A.; Iodp Expedition 307 Scientific Party

    2010-12-01

    settlements with the INHG. The benthic δ13C and the sortable silt records indicate that the early Pleistocene hydrodynamic regime was characterized by weaker current intensities associated with vertical movements of MOW or its replacement by SCW at intermediate depth. After these sluggish phases enhanced MOW flow dominated again and led to stronger current intensities and most probably sediment erosion on Challenger Mound. Erosion in combination with early diagenetic (oxidation) processes overprinted the sediment layers as indicated by dissolved coral skeletons, the increase in Ca-content and sediment density, minimum δ13Cplanktonic values, as well as the occurrence of gypsum and pyrite, implying a careful evaluation of original and overprinted geochemical signals. We conclude that the Challenger Mound development was already influenced by short-term variability of water masses from southern origin and possible erosional events comparable to the late Pleistocene setting.

  13. Short-term variability and predictors of urinary pentachlorophenol levels in Ohio preschool children

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a persistent and ubiquitous environmental contaminant. No published data exist on the temporal variability or important predictors of urinary PCP concentrations in young children. In this further analysis of study data, we have examined the associations...

  14. Short-term variability and predictors of urinary pentachlorophenol levels in Ohio preschool children

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a persistent and ubiquitous environmental contaminant. No published data exist on the temporal variability or important predictors of urinary PCP concentrations in young children. In this further analysis of study data, we have examined the associations...

  15. Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

    Treesearch

    Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

  16. Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

    2015-11-01

    Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  17. Short-term variability in body weight predicts long-term weight gain1

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Michael R; Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Stice, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Background: Body weight in lower animals and humans is highly stable despite a very large flux in energy intake and expenditure over time. Conversely, the existence of higher-than-average variability in weight may indicate a disruption in the mechanisms responsible for homeostatic weight regulation. Objective: In a sample chosen for weight-gain proneness, we evaluated whether weight variability over a 6-mo period predicted subsequent weight change from 6 to 24 mo. Design: A total of 171 nonobese women were recruited to participate in this longitudinal study in which weight was measured 4 times over 24 mo. The initial 3 weights were used to calculate weight variability with the use of a root mean square error approach to assess fluctuations in weight independent of trajectory. Linear regression analysis was used to examine whether weight variability in the initial 6 mo predicted weight change 18 mo later. Results: Greater weight variability significantly predicted amount of weight gained. This result was unchanged after control for baseline body mass index (BMI) and BMI change from baseline to 6 mo and for measures of disinhibition, restrained eating, and dieting. Conclusions: Elevated weight variability in young women may signal the degradation of body weight regulatory systems. In an obesogenic environment this may eventuate in accelerated weight gain, particularly in those with a genetic susceptibility toward overweight. Future research is needed to evaluate the reliability of weight variability as a predictor of future weight gain and the sources of its predictive effect. The trial on which this study is based is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00456131. PMID:26354535

  18. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Sannino, G; Melillo, P; Stranges, S; De Pietro, G; Pecchia, L

    2015-01-01

    Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (± 4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing.

  19. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  20. Soil Microbial Community Responses to Short-term Multiple Experimental Climate Change Drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guanlin; Lee, Jongyeol; Lee, Sohye; Roh, Yujin; Son, Yowhan

    2016-04-01

    It is agreed that soil microbial communities are responsible for the cycling of carbon and nutrients in ecosystems; however, the response of these microbial communities to climate change has not been clearly understood. In this study, we measured the direct and interactive effects of climate change drivers on soil bacterial and fungal communities (abundance and composition) in an open-field multifactor climate change experiment. The experimental treatment system was established with two-year-old Pinus densiflora seedlings at Korea University in April 2013, and consisted of six different treatments with three replicates: two levels of air temperature warming (control and +3° C) were crossed with three levels of precipitation manipulation (control, -30% and +30%). After 2.5 years of treatments, in August, 2015, soil samples were collected from the topsoil (0-15cm) of all plots (n=18). High-throughput sequencing technology was used to assess the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Analysis of variance for a blocked split-plot design was used to detect the effects of climate change drivers and their interaction on the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Our results showed that 1) only the significant effect of warming on fungal community abundance was observed (P <0.05); 2) on average, warming decreased both bacterial and fungal community abundance by 20.90% and 32.30%, 6.69% and 45.89%, 14.71% and 19.56% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 3) however, warming increased the relative bacterium/fungus ratio on average by 14.03%, 37.03% and 14.31% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 4) the phylogenetic distribution of bacterial and fungal groups and their relative abundance varied among treatments; 5) treatments altered the relative abundance of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, where Ascomycota decreased with a concomitant increase in the

  1. Effects of Short Term Bioturbation by Common Voles on Biogeochemical Soil Variables

    PubMed Central

    Wilske, Burkhard; Eccard, Jana A.; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Hohmann, Maximilian; Methler, Annabel; Herde, Antje; Liesenjohann, Thilo; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 × 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35–150 individuals ha–1 mth–1). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of 13C and 15N, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the δ15N at depths of 10–20 and 20–30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15–30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5–10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools. PMID:25954967

  2. Effects of short term bioturbation by common voles on biogeochemical soil variables.

    PubMed

    Wilske, Burkhard; Eccard, Jana A; Zistl-Schlingmann, Marcus; Hohmann, Maximilian; Methler, Annabel; Herde, Antje; Liesenjohann, Thilo; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Breuer, Lutz

    2015-01-01

    Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 × 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35-150 individuals ha-1 mth-1). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of 13C and 15N, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the δ15N at depths of 10-20 and 20-30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15-30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5-10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools.

  3. Short-Term Effect of Crural Fasciotomy on Kinematic Variability and Propulsion During Level Locomotion

    PubMed Central

    Stahl, V. A.; Nichols, T. R.

    2015-01-01

    Treadmill locomotion can be characterized by consistent step-to-step kinematics despite the redundant degrees of freedom. The authors investigated the effect of disrupting the crural fascia in decerebrate cats to determine if the crural fascia contributed to kinematic variability and propulsion in the limb. Crural fasciotomy resulted in statistically significant decreases in velocity and acceleration in the joint angles during level walking, before, during, and after paw-off, particularly at the ankle. A further finding was an increase in variance of the limb segment trajectories in the frontal plane. The crural fascia therefore provides force transmission and reduction in kinematic variability to the limb during locomotion. PMID:24914468

  4. Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and action.

    PubMed

    Buizer, James; Jacobs, Katharine; Cash, David

    2016-04-26

    This paper discusses the evolution of scientific and social understanding that has led to the development of knowledge systems supporting the application of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, including the development of successful efforts to connect climate predictions with sectoral applications and actions "on the ground". The evolution of "boundary-spanning" activities to connect science and decisionmaking is then discussed, setting the stage for a report of outcomes from an international workshop comprised of producers, translators, and users of climate predictions. The workshop, which focused on identifying critical boundary-spanning features of successful boundary organizations, included participants from Australia, Hawaii, and the Pacific Islands, the US Pacific Northwest, and the state of Ceará in northwestern Brazil. Workshop participants agreed that boundary organizations have multiple roles including those of information broker, convenor of forums for engagement, translator of scientific information, arbiter of access to knowledge, and exemplar of adaptive behavior. Through these roles, boundary organizations will ensure the stability of the knowledge system in a changing political, economic, and climatic context. The international examples reviewed in this workshop demonstrated an interesting case of convergent evolution, where organizations that were very different in origin evolved toward similar structures and individuals engaged in them had similar experiences to share. These examples provide evidence that boundary organizations and boundary-spanners fill some social/institutional roles that are independent of culture.

  5. Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and action

    PubMed Central

    Buizer, James; Jacobs, Katharine; Cash, David

    2016-01-01

    This paper discusses the evolution of scientific and social understanding that has led to the development of knowledge systems supporting the application of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, including the development of successful efforts to connect climate predictions with sectoral applications and actions “on the ground”. The evolution of “boundary-spanning” activities to connect science and decisionmaking is then discussed, setting the stage for a report of outcomes from an international workshop comprised of producers, translators, and users of climate predictions. The workshop, which focused on identifying critical boundary-spanning features of successful boundary organizations, included participants from Australia, Hawaii, and the Pacific Islands, the US Pacific Northwest, and the state of Ceará in northwestern Brazil. Workshop participants agreed that boundary organizations have multiple roles including those of information broker, convenor of forums for engagement, translator of scientific information, arbiter of access to knowledge, and exemplar of adaptive behavior. Through these roles, boundary organizations will ensure the stability of the knowledge system in a changing political, economic, and climatic context. The international examples reviewed in this workshop demonstrated an interesting case of convergent evolution, where organizations that were very different in origin evolved toward similar structures and individuals engaged in them had similar experiences to share. These examples provide evidence that boundary organizations and boundary-spanners fill some social/institutional roles that are independent of culture. PMID:20133668

  6. Long and short term variability of seven blazars in six near-infrared/optical bands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandrinelli, A.; Covino, S.; Treves, A.

    2014-02-01

    Context. We present the light curves of six BL Lac objects, PKS 0537-441, PKS 0735+17, OJ 287, PKS 2005-489, PKS 2155-304, and W Comae, and of the flat spectrum radio quasar PKS 1510-089, as a part of a photometric monitoring program in the near-infrared/optical bands started in 2004. All sources are Fermi blazars. Aims: Our purpose is to investigate flux and spectral variability on short and long time scales. Systematic monitoring, independent of the activity of the source, guarantees large sample size statistics, and allows an unbiased view of different activity states on weekly or daily time scales for the whole timeframe and on nightly time scales for some epochs. Methods: Data were obtained with the REM telescope located at the ESO premises of La Silla (Chile). Light curves were gathered in the optical/near-infrared VRIJHK bands from April 2005 to June 2012. Results: Variability ≳3 mag is observed in PKS 0537-441, PKS 1510-089 and PKS 2155-304, the largest ranges spanned in the near-infrared. The color intensity plots show rather different morphologies. The spectral energy distributions in general are well fitted by a power law, with some deviations that are more apparent in low states. Some variability episodes during a night interval are well documented for PKS 0537-441 and PKS 2155-304. For the latter source the variability time scale implies a large relativistic beaming factor. Full Table 3 is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/A79

  7. DETECTION OF STRONG SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY IN NGC 6946 X-1

    SciTech Connect

    Rao Fengyun; Feng Hua; Kaaret, Philip

    2010-10-10

    Using two archival XMM-Newton observations, we identify strong X-ray flux variations in NGC 6946 X-1 indicating that it is the most variable ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) on mHz timescales known so far. The 1-10 keV light curve exhibits variability with a fractional rms amplitude of 60% integrated in the frequency range of 1-100 mHz. The power spectral density of the source shows a flat-topped spectrum that breaks at about 3 mHz with possible quasi-periodic oscillations near 8.5 mHz. Black hole binaries usually produce strong fast variability in the hard or intermediate state. The energy spectrum of NGC 6946 X-1 is dominated by two components, a 0.18 keV thermal disk and a power law with a photon index of {approx} 2.2, which is consistent with the intermediate state. The characteristic timescales of the X-ray emission suggest that the ULX may contain a black hole with a mass on the order of 10{sup 3} solar masses.

  8. On spatiotemporal series analysis and its application to predict the regional short term climate process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Geli; Yang, Peicai; Lü, Daren

    2004-04-01

    Based on the theory of reconstructing state space, a technique for spatiotemporal series prediction is presented. By means of this technique and NCEP/NCAR data of the monthly mean geopotential height anomaly of the 500-hPa isobaric surface in the Northern Hemisphere, a regional prediction experiment is also carried out. If using the correlation coefficient R between the observed field and the prediction field to measure the prediction accuracy, the averaged R given by 48 prediction samples reaches 21%, which corresponds to the current prediction level for the short range climate process.

  9. Bovine colostrum supplementation's lack of effect on immune variables during short-term intense exercise in well-trained athletes.

    PubMed

    Carol, Arnoud; Witkamp, Renger F; Wichers, Harry J; Mensink, Marco

    2011-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential of bovine colostrum to attenuate postexercise decline in immune function. The authors evaluated the time course of a number of immune variables after short-term intense exercise in 9 male athletes after 10 d of supplementation with either colostrum or skim-milk powder. To increase the stress on the immune system subjects performed a glycogen-depletion trial the evening before the endurance trial (90 min at 50% Wmax). Blood samples were taken before the glycogen-depletion trial, before and after the endurance trial, and the next morning, ~22 hr after cessation of the exercise. Plasma cortisol levels increased over time, reaching the highest level directly after exercise, and were still elevated ~22 hr after exercise compared with baseline values (p < .001). Neutrophil cell count was increased after exercise and dropped below starting values 22 hr after exercise (time effect p < .001). Circulating immunoglobulins did not change over time. A significant time effect was seen for interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, IL-1-receptor agonist, and C-reactive protein, with levels being higher directly after exercise (p < .05). Other cytokines (interferon-γ, IL-1a, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor-a) did not show a time effect. No differences were seen between colostrum and skim-milk powder in any of the investigated variables. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that intense exercise affects several variables of the immune system. Colostrum did not alter any of the postexercise immune variables compared with skim-milk powder, suggesting no role for bovine colostrum supplementation in preventing postexercise immune suppression after short-term intense exercise.

  10. Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

    2014-08-01

    We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

  11. Anatomy of the AGN in NGC 5548. IV. The short-term variability of the outflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Gesu, L.; Costantini, E.; Ebrero, J.; Mehdipour, M.; Kaastra, J. S.; Ursini, F.; Petrucci, P. O.; Cappi, M.; Kriss, G. A.; Bianchi, S.; Branduardi-Raymont, G.; De Marco, B.; De Rosa, A.; Kaspi, S.; Paltani, S.; Pinto, C.; Ponti, G.; Steenbrugge, K. C.; Whewell, M.

    2015-07-01

    During an extensive multiwavelength campaign that we performed in 2013-2014, we found the prototypical Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 in an unusual condition of heavy and persistent obscuration. The newly discovered "obscurer" absorbs most of the soft X-ray continuum along our line of sight and lowers the ionizing luminosity received by the classical warm absorber. We present the analysis of the high resolution X-ray spectra collected with XMM-Newton and Chandra throughout the campaign, which are suitable to investigate the variability of both the obscurer and classical warm absorber. The time separation between these X-ray observations range from two days to eight months. On these timescales the obscurer is variable both in column density and in covering fraction. This is consistent with the picture of a patchy wind. The most significant variation occurred in September 2013 when the source brightened for two weeks. A higher and steeper intrinsic continuum and a lower obscurer covering fraction are both required to explain the spectral shape during the flare. We suggest that a geometrical change of the soft X-ray source behind the obscurer causes the observed drop in the covering fraction. Because of the higher soft X-ray continuum level, the September 2013 Chandra spectrum is the only X ray spectrum of the campaign in which individual features of the warm absorber could be detected. The spectrum shows absorption from Fe-UTA, O iv, and O v, consistent with belonging to the lower-ionization counterpart of the historical NGC 5548 warm absorber. Hence, we confirm that the warm absorber has responded to the drop in the ionizing luminosity caused by the obscurer.

  12. Short-Term Spectral Variability in the Binary FS CMa-Type Object MWC 728

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zharikov, S. V.; Miroshnichenko, A. S.

    2017-02-01

    We report the results of a long-term spectroscopic monitoring of the FS CM-type object MWC 728. We found that it is a binary system with a B5 ve (T1,eff = 14000±1000 K) primary and a G8 III (T2,eff ˜ 5000 K) secondary. Absorption lines of the cool star show regular variations with a semi-amplitude of ˜20 km s-1 and a period of 27.5 days. The system mass function is 2.3×10-2 M⊙, and its orbital plane is ˜ 13-15° tilted from the plane of the sky. The hot star has a projected rotational velocity of ˜110 km s-1 which implies a nearly breakup rotation at the equator. We detected strong variations of the Balmer and He I emission-line profiles on timescales from days to years. This points out to a variable stellar wind of the hot star in addition to the presence of a circum-primary gaseous disk. The strength of the absorption-line spectrum along with the optical and near-IR continuum suggest that the hot star contributes ˜60% of the V-band flux, the disk contributes ˜30%, and the cool star ˜10%.The binary system parameters, along with the interstellar extinction, suggest a distance of ˜1 kpc, that the cool star radius (˜8 R⊙) is smaller than its Roche lobe, and that the companions' mass ratio is q ˜0.5. Overall, the observed spectral variability and the presence of a strong IR-excess are in agreement with a model of a close binary system that has undergone a non-conservative mass-transfer.

  13. Motor unit firing variability and synchronization during short-term light-load training in older adults.

    PubMed

    Griffin, L; Painter, P E; Wadhwa, A; Spirduso, W W

    2009-08-01

    We compared motor unit synchronization and firing rate variability within and across synergistic hand muscles during a pinching task following short-term light-load training to improve force steadiness in older adults. A total of 183 motor unit pairs before training and 158 motor unit pairs after training were recorded with intramuscular fine-wire electrodes within and across the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) and adductor pollicis (AdP) muscles during a pinch task performed by ten older adults before and after a 4-week short-term light-load training program. Nine younger adults performed the same experimental sessions 4 weeks apart with no training intervention. Two-minute sustained contractions of 2, 4, 8, and 12% maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) were performed with the non-dominant hand. The coefficient of variation (CV) of force was greater in older than in younger adults and was lower at the 2 and 4% MVC levels in both the finger (0.12 +/- 0.01 vs. 0.08 +/- 0.01, and 0.08 +/- 0.01 vs. 0.05 +/- 0.01, respectively) and thumb (0.11 +/- 0.01 vs. 0.08 +/- 0.01, and 0.09 +/- 0.01 vs. 0.05 +/- 0.01, respectively) compared to higher force levels following training in the older adults. There were no changes in CIS or k'-1 values following training. Motor unit firing rate variability significantly decreased at low force levels in the FDI muscle and also tended to decrease with training in the AdP muscle (p = 0.06). No changes occurred in the younger control group. These findings are the first to show that motor unit synchronization does not change during light-load training. Thus, it is likely that force steadiness in older adults improves by reducing motor unit firing variability rather than by changing motor unit synchronization.

  14. A Study of Short-term White Dwarf Variability Using gPhoton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, Michael; Fleming, Scott W.; Caton, Daniel B.; Million, Chase; Shiao, Bernie

    2016-01-01

    The Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) was a UV space telescope that operated from 2003 until 2013. A new project at MAST, gPhoton takes advantage of the microchannel-plate photon detector aboard GALEX, which catalogued and time-stamped every photon event by putting the one trillion photon events into a database. Utilizing associated open-source software, gPhoton can create coadd images, movies and light curves at user-defined spatial and temporal scales. As part of early science investigations with gPhoton, 364 white dwarf stars from the McCook-Sion catalog with ample GALEX coverage were photometrically inspected for inter-visit variations during an REU program at STScI. Out of the 364 white dwarfs that were studied, three previously documented pulsating white dwarf stars were confirmed in the UV and (at least) three new pulsating white dwarf stars were discovered. Follow-up observations are conducted at Appalachian State University using optical telescopes at the Dark Sky Observatory. We compare optical and UV light curves of these new white dwarf pulsators and show a selection of other variables found with gPhoton.

  15. Short term variability of aerosol optical thickness at Belsk for the period 2002-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietruczuk, Aleksander

    2013-11-01

    In this work variability of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measured at Belsk, Poland is studied as well as modification of AOT during airmass advection towards Belsk. AOT measurements taken at Belsk and at AERONET stations located in eastern Germany, Belarus and Scandinavia are used as well as satellite measurements of AOT taken by MODIS instrument onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. Directions of airmass advection are determined by means of cluster analysis of airmass backward-trajectories. Changes of AOT at Belsk from day to day varies around zero regardless of time lag between measurements. The standard deviation of these measurements increases with increasing time lag. In case of advection from west and north direction such standard deviation is reduced. It gives good perspective for a persistent forecast of next day AOT. Analysis of AOT changes during airmass advection toward Belsk reveals two modes of AOT changes distributions. One of them with small increase of AOT and second one with larger increase of AOT, so-called loading mode. Loading mode dominates in case of advection from south direction whilst the first mode of AOT changes dominates in case of advection from other directions. Mean increase of AOT associated with the first mode is 0.034 ± 0.003. Analysis of backward-trajectories shows that aerosol loading occurs over urban/industrial regions located south and south-west of Belsk. Substantial aerosol loading is found during seasonal biomass burning episodes in Eastern Europe.

  16. Short-Term Test Results. Transitional Housing Energy Efficiency Retrofit in the Hot Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, K.

    2013-02-01

    This project evaluates the renovation of a 5,800 ft2, multi-use facility located in St. Petersburg, on the west coast of central Florida, in the hot humid climate. An optimal package of retrofit measures was designed to deliver 30%-40% annual energy cost savings for this building with annual utility bills exceeding $16,000 and high base load consumption. Researchers projected energy cost savings for potential retrofit measures based on pre-retrofit findings and disaggregated, weather normalized utility bills as a basis for simulation true-up. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for the seven retrofit measures implemented; adding attic insulation and sealing soffits, tinting windows, improving whole building air-tightness, upgrading heating and cooling systems and retrofitting the air distribution system, replacing water heating systems, retrofitting lighting, and replacing laundry equipment. The projected energy cost savings for the full retrofit package based on a post-retrofit audit is 35%. The building's architectural characteristics, vintage, and residential and commercial uses presented challenges for both economic projections and retrofit measure construction.

  17. Short-Term Test Results: Transitional Housing Energy Efficiency Retrofit in the Hot-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, K.; Martin, E.

    2013-02-01

    This project evaluates the renovation of a 5,800 ft2, multi-use facility located in St. Petersburg, on the west coast of central Florida, in the hot humid climate. An optimal package of retrofit measures was designed to deliver 30-40% annual energy cost savings for this building with annual utility bills exceeding $16,000 and high base load consumption. Researchers projected energy cost savings for potential retrofit measures based on pre-retrofit findings and disaggregated, weather normalized utility bills as a basis for simulation true-up. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for the seven retrofit measures implemented; adding attic insulation and sealing soffits, tinting windows, improving whole building air-tightness, upgrading heating and cooling systems and retrofitting the air distribution system, replacing water heating systems, retrofitting lighting, and replacing laundry equipment. The projected energy cost savings for the full retrofit package based on a post-retrofit audit is 35%. The building's architectural characteristics, vintage, and residential and commercial uses presented challenges for both economic projections and retrofit measure construction.

  18. Non-stationarities significantly distort short-term spectral, symbolic and entropy heart rate variability indices.

    PubMed

    Magagnin, Valentina; Bassani, Tito; Bari, Vlasta; Turiel, Maurizio; Maestri, Roberto; Pinna, Gian Domenico; Porta, Alberto

    2011-11-01

    The autonomic regulation is non-invasively estimated from heart rate variability (HRV). Many methods utilized to assess autonomic regulation require stationarity of HRV recordings. However, non-stationarities are frequently present even during well-controlled experiments, thus potentially biasing HRV indices. The aim of our study is to quantify the potential bias of spectral, symbolic and entropy HRV indices due to non-stationarities. We analyzed HRV series recorded in healthy subjects during uncontrolled daily life activities typical of 24 h Holter recordings and during predetermined levels of robotic-assisted treadmill-based physical exercise. A stationarity test checking the stability of the mean and variance over short HRV series (about 300 cardiac beats) was utilized to distinguish stationary periods from non-stationary ones. Spectral, symbolic and entropy indices evaluated solely over stationary periods were contrasted with those derived from all the HRV segments. When indices were calculated solely over stationary series, we found that (i) during both uncontrolled daily life activities and controlled physical exercise, the entropy-based complexity indices were significantly larger; (ii) during uncontrolled daily life activities, the spectral and symbolic indices linked to sympathetic modulation were significantly smaller and those associated with vagal modulation were significantly larger; (iii) while during uncontrolled daily life activities, the variance of spectral, symbolic and entropy rate indices was significantly larger, during controlled physical exercise, it was smaller. The study suggests that non-stationarities increase the likelihood to overestimate the contribution of sympathetic control and affect the power of statistical tests utilized to discriminate conditions and/or groups.

  19. Short-term variability of gamma radiation at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site (Azores)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbosa, Susana; Miranda, Pedro; Azevedo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Naturally-occurring radionuclides, and radon and its progeny in particular, can be used as a sensitive atmospheric tracer and an indicator of dynamic processes in the lower troposphere. Radiation from gamma-emitting radionuclides (including Rn-222 progeny) is being continuously monitored since May 2015 in the framework of an ARM campaign at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) facility located in the Graciosa island (Azores, 39N; 28W), a fixed site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement programme (ARM), established and supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) of the United States of America with the collaboration of the Government of the Autonomous Region of the Azores and University of the Azores. The resulting time series of 15-minute gamma ray counts radiation is characterized by occasional anomalies over a slowly-varying signal. Sharp peaks lasting typically 2-4 hours are coincident with heavy precipitation (> 10 mm/hour) and result from the scavenging effect of precipitation bringing radon progeny from the upper levels to the ground surface. However, the connection between gamma variability and precipitation is not straightforward as a result of the complex interplay of factors such as the precipitation intensity, the boundary layer height, the cloud's base height and thickness, or the air mass origin and atmospheric concentration of sub-micron aerosols, which influence the scavenging processes and therefore the concentration of radon progeny. Convective precipitation associated with cumuliform clouds forming under conditions of warming of the ground relative to the air does not produce enhancements in gamma radiation, likely as a result of the drop growing process being dominated by the fast accretion of liquid water, resulting in the reduction of the concentration of radionuclides by dilution. Events of convective precipitation further contribute to a reduction in gamma counts by inhibiting radon release from the soil surface and by attenuating gamma rays

  20. Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2015-02-01

    Vegetation - atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year Eddy Covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all time scales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated during the heat wave of 2003. We conclude that

  1. Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermeulen, M. H.; Kruijt, B. J.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2015-07-01

    The vegetation-atmosphere carbon and water exchange at one particular site can strongly vary from year to year, and understanding this interannual variability in carbon and water exchange (IAVcw) is a critical factor in projecting future ecosystem changes. However, the mechanisms driving this IAVcw are not well understood. We used data on carbon and water fluxes from a multi-year eddy covariance study (1997-2009) in a Dutch Scots pine forest and forced a process-based ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; LPJ-GUESS) with local data to, firstly, test whether the model can explain IAVcw and seasonal carbon and water exchange from direct environmental factors only. Initial model runs showed low correlations with estimated annual gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), while monthly and daily fluxes showed high correlations. The model underestimated GPP and AET during winter and drought events. Secondly, we adapted the temperature inhibition function of photosynthesis to account for the observation that at this particular site, trees continue to assimilate at very low atmospheric temperatures (up to daily averages of -10 °C), resulting in a net carbon sink in winter. While we were able to improve daily and monthly simulations during winter by lowering the modelled minimum temperature threshold for photosynthesis, this did not increase explained IAVcw at the site. Thirdly, we implemented three alternative hypotheses concerning water uptake by plants in order to test which one best corresponds with the data. In particular, we analyse the effects during the 2003 heatwave. These simulations revealed a strong sensitivity of the modelled fluxes during dry and warm conditions, but no single formulation was consistently superior in reproducing the data for all timescales and the overall model-data match for IAVcw could not be improved. Most probably access to deep soil water leads to higher AET and GPP simulated

  2. Processes driving the short-term variability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Baltimore and northern Chesapeake Bay atmosphere, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dachs, Jordi; Glenn, Thomas R.; Gigliotti, Cari L.; Brunciak, Paul; Totten, Lisa A.; Nelson, Eric D.; Franz, Thomas P.; Eisenreich, Steven J.

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in the Baltimore and adjacent Chesapeake Bay in July 1997. Time series of 4- and 12-h samples were taken at two sites 15 km apart in order to evaluate the influence of a number of processes on the short-term variability of PAH in the Baltimore and northern Chesapeake Bay atmospheres. PAH concentrations were 2-3-fold higher in the Baltimore atmosphere than in the adjacent Chesapeake Bay atmosphere. For example, gas-phase phenanthrene and pyrene concentrations were 12.5 and 2.14 ng m -3 in the Baltimore site and 5.57 and 0.548 ng m -3 in the Chesapeake Bay, respectively. The influence of wind direction, wind speed and temperature was evaluated by multiple linear regressions which indicated that atmospheric gas-phase PAH concentrations over the Chesapeake Bay were significantly higher when the air mass was from the urban/industrial Baltimore area. Furthermore, the increase of gas-phase low-MW PAH concentrations with temperature and wind speed suggests that volatilization from the bay is an important source of pollutants to the atmosphere, at least when air masses are not influenced by the Baltimore urban and industrial area. Indeed, while on the long-term, the Chesapeake Bay is a receptor of atmospherically deposited PAHs, on the short-term and during appropriate meteorological conditions, the bay acts as a source of pollutants to the atmosphere. Aerosol-phase PAH concentrations and temporal trends showed a strong dependence on aerosol soot content due to the high affinity of PAHs to the graphitic structure of soot. These results confirm the important influence of urban areas as a source of pollution to adjacent aquatic environments and as a driving factor of the short-term variability, either directly by transport of urban-generated pollutants or by volatilization of previously deposited pollutants. Conversely, the complex diurnal trends of gas-phase PAHs at the Baltimore site suggests that degradation processes

  3. Using a short-term parameter of heart rate variability to distinguish awake from isoflurane anesthetic states.

    PubMed

    Huang, Hui-Hsun; Lee, Yi-Hui; Chan, Hsiao-Lung; Wang, Yong-Ping; Huang, Chi-Hsiang; Fan, Shou-Zen

    2008-10-01

    The measurement of anesthetic depth is important in anesthesiology. Although heart rate variability (HRV) is profoundly affected by general anesthesia, it has not yet been commonly used in this field. One of the reasons is the lack of suitable parameters of HRV for short-term observations. In this study, we designed a time domain parameter of HRV named the similarity index. It was based on observing the trend of the distribution of instantaneous heart rates as time moved. Taking epochs of ECG data as short as 64 s can derive the index. We observed the values of this index of 30 patients when they were awake and under isoflurane anesthesia. The values had very little overlapping between the two states and the prediction probability to distinguish the two states was 0.91. We suggest that HRV, if suitably treated, can play more roles in the monitoring of anesthetic depth.

  4. Increased Short-Term Variability of the QT Interval in Professional Soccer Players: Possible Implications for Arrhythmia Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Lengyel, Csaba; Orosz, Andrea; Hegyi, Péter; Komka, Zsolt; Udvardy, Anna; Bosnyák, Edit; Trájer, Emese; Pavlik, Gábor; Tóth, Miklós; Wittmann, Tibor; Papp, Julius Gy.; Varró, András; Baczkó, István

    2011-01-01

    Background Sudden cardiac death in competitive athletes is rare but it is significantly more frequent than in the normal population. The exact cause is seldom established and is mostly attributed to ventricular fibrillation. Myocardial hypertrophy and slow heart rate, both characteristic changes in top athletes in response to physical conditioning, could be associated with increased propensity for ventricular arrhythmias. We investigated conventional ECG parameters and temporal short-term beat-to-beat variability of repolarization (STVQT), a presumptive novel parameter for arrhythmia prediction, in professional soccer players. Methods Five-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms were recorded from professional soccer players (n = 76, all males, age 22.0±0.61 years) and age-matched healthy volunteers who do not participate in competitive sports (n = 76, all males, age 22.0±0.54 years). The ECGs were digitized and evaluated off-line. The temporal instability of beat-to-beat heart rate and repolarization were characterized by the calculation of short-term variability of the RR and QT intervals. Results Heart rate was significantly lower in professional soccer players at rest (61±1.2 vs. 72±1.5/min in controls). The QT interval was prolonged in players at rest (419±3.1 vs. 390±3.6 in controls, p<0.001). QTc was significantly longer in players compared to controls calculated with Fridericia and Hodges correction formulas. Importantly, STVQT was significantly higher in players both at rest and immediately after the game compared to controls (4.8±0.14 and 4.3±0.14 vs. 3.5±0.10 ms, both p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions STVQT is significantly higher in professional soccer players compared to age-matched controls, however, further studies are needed to relate this finding to increased arrhythmia propensity in this population. PMID:21526208

  5. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

    PubMed

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-09-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions.

  6. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

    PubMed Central

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  7. Short-Term Effects of Muscular Denervation and Fasciotomy on Global Limb Variables during Locomotion in the Decerebrate Cat

    PubMed Central

    Stahl, Victoria A.; Nichols, T. Richard

    2011-01-01

    The motor system is capable of preserving the trajectories during locomotion of task level variables such as limb length and limb orientation in the face of paralysis of major muscle groups. This compensation is accomplished by the adjustment of the kinematics of joints other than the one most affected by the paralysis. The conservation of these task level variables could be accomplished quickly by feedback regulation or intrinsic mechanics, or by a longer-term adaptive process. We investigated the immediate effects of denervation of the triceps surae muscles in one limb of stepping, decerebrate cats to determine whether task level variables were preserved by short-term regulatory or intrinsic mechanisms. We further investigated the effects of disruption of the crural fascia in conjunction with denervation of the triceps surae muscles to determine whether the system consisting of multi-articular muscles of the thigh and crural fascia provided some contribution toward the preservation of limb length and orientation. Denervation led to substantial increases in ankle yield during stance, as previously observed, but also to significant decreases in limb length during early stance. Disruption of the crural fascia did not lead to increased ankle yield but, instead, to evidence for decreased propulsion. The results suggest that the preservation of task level variables observed in other studies does not result from online error correction or intrinsic properties of the musculoskeletal system but, by inference, from longer-term neural adaptation. PMID:21422749

  8. Association Between Short-Term Systolic Blood Pressure Variability and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in ELSA-Brasil Baseline.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Adèle H; Lotufo, Paulo A; Fujita, André; Goulart, Alessandra C; Chor, Dora; Mill, José G; Bensenor, Isabela M; Santos, Itamar S

    2017-10-01

    Blood pressure (BP) is associated with carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), but few studies have explored the association between BP variability and CIMT. We aimed to investigate this association in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) baseline. We analyzed data from 7,215 participants (56.0% women) without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD) or antihypertensive use. We included 10 BP readings in varying positions during a 6-hour visit. We defined BP variability as the SD of these readings. We performed a 2-step analysis. We first linearly regressed the CIMT values on main and all-order interaction effects of the variables age, sex, body mass index, race, diabetes diagnosis, dyslipidemia diagnosis, family history of premature CVD, smoking status, and ELSA-Brasil site, and calculated the residuals (residual CIMT). We used partial least square path analysis to investigate whether residual CIMT was associated with BP central tendency and BP variability. Systolic BP (SBP) variability was significantly associated with residual CIMT in models including the entire sample (path coefficient [PC]: 0.046; P < 0.001), and in women (PC: 0.046; P = 0.007) but not in men (PC: 0.037; P = 0.09). This loss of significance was probably due to the smaller subsample size, as PCs were not significantly different according to sex. We found a small but significant association between SBP variability and CIMT values. This was additive to the association between SBP central tendency and CIMT values, supporting a role for high short-term SBP variability in atherosclerosis.

  9. Short-term environmental variability in cold-water coral habitat at Viosca Knoll, Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Andrew J.; Duineveld, Gerard C. A.; van Weering, Tjeerd C. E.; Mienis, Furu; Quattrini, Andrea M.; Seim, Harvey E.; Bane, John M.; Ross, Steve W.

    2010-02-01

    The Lophelia pertusa community at Viosca Knoll (VK826) is the most extensive found to date in the Gulf of Mexico. As part of a multi-disciplinary study, the physical setting of this area was described using benthic landers, CTD transects and remotely operated vehicle observations. The site was broadly characterised into three main habitats: (1) dense coral cover that resembles biogenic reef complexes, (2) areas of sediment, and (3) authigenic carbonate blocks with sparse coral and chemosynthetic communities. The coral communities were dominated by L. pertusa but also contained numerous solitary coral species. Over areas that contained L. pertusa, the environmental conditions recorded were similar to those associated with communities in the north-eastern Atlantic, with temperature (8.5-10.6 °C) and salinity (˜35) falling within the known species niche for L. pertusa. However, dissolved oxygen concentrations (2.7-2.8 ml l -1) and density ( σ Θ, 27.1-27.2 kg m -3) were lower and mass fluxes from sediment trap data appeared much higher (4002-4192 mg m -2 d -1). Yet, this species still appears to thrive in this region, suggesting that L. pertusa may not be as limited by lower dissolved oxygen concentrations as previously thought. The VK826 site experienced sustained eastward water flow of 10-30 cm s -1 over the 5-day measurement period but was also subjected to significant short-term variability in current velocity and direction. In addition, two processes were observed that caused variability in salinity and temperature; the first was consistent with internal waves that caused temperature variations of 0.8 °C over 5-11 h periods. The second was high-frequency variability (20-30 min periods) in temperature recorded only at the ALBEX site. A further pattern observed over the coral habitat was the presence of a 24 h diel vertical migration of zooplankton that may form part of a food chain that eventually reaches the corals. The majority of detailed studies concerning

  10. A Latent Variable Analysis of Working Memory Capacity, Short-Term Memory Capacity, Processing Speed, and General Fluid Intelligence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conway, Andrew R. A.; Cowan, Nelsin; Bunting, Michael F.; Therriault, David J.; Minkoff, Scott R. B.

    2002-01-01

    Studied the interrelationships among general fluid intelligence, short-term memory capacity, working memory capacity, and processing speed in 120 young adults and used structural equation modeling to determine the best predictor of general fluid intelligence. Results suggest that working memory capacity, but not short-term memory capacity or…

  11. Change in Measured Noncognitive Variables: A Quantitative Examination of the Influence of Short-Term Study Abroad Experiences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Motley, Reginald James

    2013-01-01

    Students have different motivations for participating in education abroad experiences. Short-term study abroad programs offer students the opportunity to experience education abroad without spending an entire semester or year abroad. As a result of these opportunities, short-term study abroad programs have emerged to meet the demands for students…

  12. Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability Relates to the Presence of Subclinical Brain Small Vessel Disease in Primary Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Filomena, Josefina; Riba-Llena, Iolanda; Vinyoles, Ernest; Tovar, José L; Mundet, Xavier; Castañé, Xavier; Vilar, Andrea; López-Rueda, Antonio; Jiménez-Baladó, Joan; Cartanyà, Anna; Montaner, Joan; Delgado, Pilar

    2015-09-01

    Blood pressure (BP) variability is associated with stroke risk, but less is known about subclinical cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD). We aimed to determine whether CSVD relates to short-term BP variability independently of BP levels and also, whether they improve CSVD discrimination beyond clinical variables and office BP levels. This was a cohort study on asymptomatic hypertensives who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging and 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring. Office and average 24-hour, daytime and nighttime BP levels, and several metrics of BP variability (SD, weighted SD, coefficient of variation, and average real variability [ARV]) were calculated. Definition of CSVD was based on the presence of lacunar infarcts and white matter hyperintensity grades. Multivariate analysis and integrated discrimination improvement were performed to assess whether BP variability and levels were independently associated with CSVD and improved its discrimination. Four hundred eighty-seven individuals participated (median age, 64; 47% women). CSVD was identified in 18.9%, related to age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, use of treatment, ambulatory BP monitoring-defined BP levels, and ARV of systolic BP at any period. The highest prevalence (33.7%) was found in subjects with both 24-hour BP levels and ARV elevated. BP levels at any period and ARV (24 hours and nocturnal) emerged as independent predictors of CSVD, and discrimination was incrementally improved although not to a clinically significant extent (integrated discrimination improvement, 5.31%, 5.17% to 5.4%). Ambulatory BP monitoring-defined BP levels and ARV of systolic BP relate to subclinical CSVD in hypertensive individuals. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Comparison of surgical variables and short-term postoperative complications in healthy dogs undergoing ovariohysterectomy or ovariectomy.

    PubMed

    Peeters, Marijke E; Kirpensteijn, Jolle

    2011-01-15

    To determine whether ovariohysterectomy (OVH) required more time to complete and was associated with more short-term postoperative complications than ovariectomy (OVE) in dogs. Randomized prospective clinical trial. 40 healthy, sexually intact female dogs. OVH (in 20 dogs) or OVE (20 dogs) was performed by use of standardized anesthetic and surgical protocols. Physical characteristics of the dogs, surgical variables, pain scores derived from behavior-based composite pain scales, and surgical wound characteristics were analyzed. Body weight, age, body condition score, and distance between the sternal manubrium and the pubic rim were comparable among dogs that underwent either surgical procedure. Body weight was positively correlated with the total duration of the procedure and with time required for closure of the surgical wound. No effect of body condition score was determined for any variable. Skin and fascia incision lengths relative to the distance from the sternal manubrium to pubic rim were significantly greater in dogs that underwent OVH, compared with those of dogs that underwent OVE, but total surgical time was not different for the 2 procedures. No other significant differences were detected between the 2 groups. Significant differences in total surgical time, pain scores, and wound scores were not observed between dogs that underwent OVH and dogs that underwent OVE via standardized protocols.

  14. Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22-year case study of an arboreal marsupial.

    PubMed

    Banks, Sam C; Lorin, Thibault; Shaw, Robyn E; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D J; Smith, Annabel L; Pierson, Jennifer C; Lindenmayer, David B

    2015-08-01

    Ecological disturbance and climate are key drivers of temporal dynamics in the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations. Microscale refuges are known to buffer species' persistence against environmental change, but the effects of such refuges on demographic and genetic patterns in response to short-term environmental variation are poorly understood. We quantified demographic and genetic responses of mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) to rainfall variability (1992-2013) and to a major wildfire. We hypothesized that there would be underlying differences in demographic and genetic processes between an unburnt mesic refuge and a topographically exposed zone that was burnt in 2009. Fire caused a 2-year decrease in survival in the burnt zone, but the population grew after the fire due to immigration, leading to increased expected heterozygosity. We documented a fire-related behavioural shift, where the rate of movement by individuals in the unburnt refuge to the burnt zone decreased after fire. Irrespective of the fire, there were long-term differences in demographic and genetic parameters between the mesic/unburnt refuge and the nonmesic/burnt zone. Survival was high and unaffected by rainfall in the refuge, but lower and rainfall-dependent in the nonmesic zone. Net movement of individuals was directional, from the mesic refuge to the nonmesic zone, suggesting fine-scale source-sink dynamics. There were higher expected heterozygosity (HE ) and temporal genetic stability in the refuge, but lower HE and marked temporal genetic structure in the exposed habitat, consistent with reduced generational overlap caused by elevated mortality and immigration. Thus, fine-scale refuges can mediate the short-term demographic and genetic effects of climate and ecological disturbance.

  15. Shifts in the suitable habitat available for brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) under short-term climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Muñoz-Mas, R; Lopez-Nicolas, A; Martínez-Capel, F; Pulido-Velazquez, M

    2016-02-15

    The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability for large brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) was studied in a segment of the Cabriel River (Iberian Peninsula). The future flow and water temperature patterns were simulated at a daily time step with M5 models' trees (NSE of 0.78 and 0.97 respectively) for two short-term scenarios (2011-2040) under the representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). An ensemble of five strongly regularized machine learning techniques (generalized additive models, multilayer perceptron ensembles, random forests, support vector machines and fuzzy rule base systems) was used to model the microhabitat suitability (depth, velocity and substrate) during summertime and to evaluate several flows simulated with River2D©. The simulated flow rate and water temperature were combined with the microhabitat assessment to infer bivariate habitat duration curves (BHDCs) under historical conditions and climate change scenarios using either the weighted usable area (WUA) or the Boolean-based suitable area (SA). The forecasts for both scenarios jointly predicted a significant reduction in the flow rate and an increase in water temperature (mean rate of change of ca. -25% and +4% respectively). The five techniques converged on the modelled suitability and habitat preferences; large brown trout selected relatively high flow velocity, large depth and coarse substrate. However, the model developed with support vector machines presented a significantly trimmed output range (max.: 0.38), and thus its predictions were banned from the WUA-based analyses. The BHDCs based on the WUA and the SA broadly matched, indicating an increase in the number of days with less suitable habitat available (WUA and SA) and/or with higher water temperature (trout will endure impoverished environmental conditions ca. 82% of the days). Finally, our results suggested the potential extirpation of the species from the study site during short time spans. Copyright © 2015

  16. Linear Short-Term Heart Rate Variability Parameters of Subjects Tobacco Cigarette Smokers and Subjects Nonsmokers in Preoperative Period.

    PubMed

    Omerbegovic, Meldijana

    2017-02-01

    Variations of heart cycles reflect complex dynamic cardiocirculatory regulatory systems in humans. Exposure to tobacco from cigarettes has been shown to elicit specific alterations of heart rate variability parameters leading to predominance of sympathetic and decreasing parameters of parasympathetic measures of cardiac autonomic nervous system tone. The aim of the trial was assessing differences of linear parameters of heart rate variability in subjects with habit of consuming of cigarettes tobacco in regard to subjects who are not consumers of tobacco. Patients of ASA II class with border-line arterial hypertension planned for elective abdominal surgery were included in the clinical trial. Twenty-two subjects were allocated to group I, with history of smoking twenty or more cigarettes per day for five or more years, and twenty-three subjects nonsmokers were allocated to group II. Recordings of electrocardiogram were done by Holter device and later on short- term heart rate variability (five minutes periods) were analyzed. Parameters of time domain analysis (SDNN-standard deviation of NN intervals, mean RR interval, mean heart rate) and frequency domain measures (low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), and LF/HF ratio) were analyzed. Baseline measures of mean NN intervals and standard deviation of normal to normal interval (SDNN) were slightly lower in subjects consumers of nicotine by cigarette tobacco smoking in regard to nonsmokers but without significant difference (640+-15ms vs 675+-8ms, p<0.1;45,1+-3,4 ms vs 51,4+ 3,7ms, p<0.08, respectively). Values of frequency domain measures (LF, HF and LF/HF ratio) have shown variations between two groups, but no significant difference was found.

  17. Reliability and Short-Term Intra-Individual Variability of Telomere Length Measurement Using Monochrome Multiplexing Quantitative PCR

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sangmi; Sandler, Dale P.; Carswell, Gleta; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Taylor, Jack A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Studies examining the association between telomere length and cancer risk have often relied on measurement of telomere length from a single blood draw using a real-time PCR technique. We examined the reliability of telomere length measurement using sequential samples collected over a 9-month period. Methods and Findings Relative telomere length in peripheral blood was estimated using a single tube monochrome multiplex quantitative PCR assay in blood DNA samples from 27 non-pregnant adult women (aged 35 to 74 years) collected in 7 visits over a 9-month period. A linear mixed model was used to estimate the components of variance for telomere length measurements attributed to variation among women and variation between time points within women. Mean telomere length measurement at any single visit was not significantly different from the average of 7 visits. Plates had a significant systematic influence on telomere length measurements, although measurements between different plates were highly correlated. After controlling for plate effects, 64% of the remaining variance was estimated to be accounted for by variance due to subject. Variance explained by time of visit within a subject was minor, contributing 5% of the remaining variance. Conclusion Our data demonstrate good short-term reliability of telomere length measurement using blood from a single draw. However, the existence of technical variability, particularly plate effects, reinforces the need for technical replicates and balancing of case and control samples across plates. PMID:21984947

  18. Reliability and short-term intra-individual variability of telomere length measurement using monochrome multiplexing quantitative PCR.

    PubMed

    Kim, Sangmi; Sandler, Dale P; Carswell, Gleta; Weinberg, Clarice R; Taylor, Jack A

    2011-01-01

    Studies examining the association between telomere length and cancer risk have often relied on measurement of telomere length from a single blood draw using a real-time PCR technique. We examined the reliability of telomere length measurement using sequential samples collected over a 9-month period. Relative telomere length in peripheral blood was estimated using a single tube monochrome multiplex quantitative PCR assay in blood DNA samples from 27 non-pregnant adult women (aged 35 to 74 years) collected in 7 visits over a 9-month period. A linear mixed model was used to estimate the components of variance for telomere length measurements attributed to variation among women and variation between time points within women. Mean telomere length measurement at any single visit was not significantly different from the average of 7 visits. Plates had a significant systematic influence on telomere length measurements, although measurements between different plates were highly correlated. After controlling for plate effects, 64% of the remaining variance was estimated to be accounted for by variance due to subject. Variance explained by time of visit within a subject was minor, contributing 5% of the remaining variance. Our data demonstrate good short-term reliability of telomere length measurement using blood from a single draw. However, the existence of technical variability, particularly plate effects, reinforces the need for technical replicates and balancing of case and control samples across plates.

  19. WRF model sensitivity to land surface model and cumulus parameterization under short-term climate extremes over the southern Great Plains of the United States

    Treesearch

    Lisi Pei; Nathan Moore; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; David W. Hyndman; Warren E. Heilman; Zhiqiu. Gao

    2014-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production...

  20. Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhihua

    2016-11-01

    Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

  1. Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhihua

    2016-11-18

    Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.

  2. Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhihua

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states. PMID:27857204

  3. MAGIC detection of short-term variability of the high-peaked BL Lac object 1ES 0806+524

    DOE PAGES

    Aleksi , J.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; ...

    2015-05-29

    The high-frequency-peaked BL Lac (HBL) 1ES 0806+524 (z = 0.138) was discovered in very high energy (VHE) γ-rays in 2008. Until now, the broad-band spectrum of 1ES 0806+524 has been only poorly characterized, in particular at high energies. In this paper, we analysed multiwavelength observations from γ-rays to radio performed from 2011 January to March, which were triggered by the high activity detected at optical frequencies. These observations constitute the most precise determination of the broad-band emission of 1ES 0806+524 to date. The stereoscopic Major Atmospheric Gamma-Ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) observations yielded a γ-ray signal above 250 GeV of (3.7more » ± 0.7) per cent of the Crab Nebula flux with a statistical significance of 9.9σ. The multiwavelength observations showed significant variability in essentially all energy bands, including a VHE γ-ray flare that lasted less than one night, which provided unprecedented evidence for short-term variability in 1ES 0806+524. The spectrum of this flare is well described by a power law with a photon index of 2.97 ± 0.29 between ~150 GeV and 1 TeV and an integral flux of (9.3 ± 1.9) per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 250 GeV. The spectrum during the non-flaring VHE activity is compatible with the only available VHE observation performed in 2008 with VERITAS when the source was in a low optical state. Lastly, the broad-band spectral energy distribution can be described with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model with parameters typical for HBLs, indicating that 1ES 0806+524 is not substantially different from the HBLs previously detected.« less

  4. MAGIC detection of short-term variability of the high-peaked BL Lac object 1ES 0806+524

    SciTech Connect

    Aleksi , J.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; Antoranz, P.; Babic, A.; Bangale, P.; Barrio, J. A.; Becerra Gonzalez, J.; Bednarek, W.; Bernardini, E.; Biasuzzi, B.; Biland, A.; Blanch, O.; Bonnefoy, S.; Bonnoli, G.; Borracci, F.; Bretz, T.; Carmona, E.; Carosi, A.; Colin, P.; Colombo, E.; Contreras, J. L.; Cortina, J.; Covino, S.; Da Vela, P.; Dazzi, F.; De Angelis, A.; De Caneva, G.; De Lotto, B.; de Ona Wilhelmi, E.; Delgado Mendez, C.; Di Pierro, F.; Dominis Prester, D.; Dorner, D.; Doro, M.; Einecke, S.; Eisenacher, D.; Elsaesser, D.; Fernandez-Barral, A.; Fidalgo, D.; Fonseca, M. V.; Font, L.; Frantzen, K.; Fruck, C.; Galindo, D.; Garcia Lopez, R. J.; Garczarczyk, M.; Garrido Terrats, D.; Gaug, M.; Godinovi , N.; Gonzalez Munoz, A.; Gozzini, S. R.; Hadasch, D.; Hanabata, Y.; Hayashida, M.; Herrera, J.; Hose, J.; Hrupec, D.; Idec, W.; Kadenius, V.; Kellermann, H.; Knoetig, M. L.; Kodani, K.; Konno, Y.; Krause, J.; Kubo, H.; Kushida, J.; La Barbera, A.; Lelas, D.; Lewandowska, N.; Lindfors, E.; Lombardi, S.; Longo, F.; Lopez, M.; Lopez-Coto, R.; Lopez-Oramas, A.; Lorenz, E.; Lozano, I.; Makariev, M.; Mallot, K.; Maneva, G.; Mannheim, K.; Maraschi, L.; Marcote, B.; Mariotti, M.; Martinez, M.; Mazin, D.; Menzel, U.; Miranda, J. M.; Mirzoyan, R.; Moralejo, A.; Munar-Adrover, P.; Nakajima, D.; Neustroev, V.; Niedzwiecki, A.; Nievas Rosillo, M.; Nilsson, K.; Nishijima, K.; Noda, K.; Orito, R.; Overkemping, A.; Paiano, S.; Palatiello, M.; Paneque, D.; Paoletti, R.; Paredes, J. M.; Paredes-Fortuny, X.; Persic, M.; Poutanen, J.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Prandini, E.; Puljak, I.; Reinthal, R.; Rhode, W.; Ribo, M.; Rico, J.; Rodriguez Garcia, J.; Saito, T.; Saito, K.; Satalecka, K.; Scalzotto, V.; Scapin, V.; Schultz, C.; Schweizer, T.; Shore, S. N.; Sillanpaa, A.; Sitarek, J.; Snidaric, I.; Sobczynska, D.; Stamerra, A.; Steinbring, T.; Strzys, M.; Takalo, L.; Takami, H.; Tavecchio, F.; Temnikov, P.; Terzi , T.; Tescaro, D.; Teshima, M.; Thaele, J.; Torres, D. F.; Toyama, T.; Treves, A.; Vogler, P.; Will, M.; Zanin, R.; Berger, K.; Buson, S.; D'Ammando, F.; Gasparrini, D.; Hovatta, T.; Max-Moerbeck, W.; Readhead, A.; Richards, J.

    2015-05-29

    The high-frequency-peaked BL Lac (HBL) 1ES 0806+524 (z = 0.138) was discovered in very high energy (VHE) γ-rays in 2008. Until now, the broad-band spectrum of 1ES 0806+524 has been only poorly characterized, in particular at high energies. In this paper, we analysed multiwavelength observations from γ-rays to radio performed from 2011 January to March, which were triggered by the high activity detected at optical frequencies. These observations constitute the most precise determination of the broad-band emission of 1ES 0806+524 to date. The stereoscopic Major Atmospheric Gamma-Ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) observations yielded a γ-ray signal above 250 GeV of (3.7 ± 0.7) per cent of the Crab Nebula flux with a statistical significance of 9.9σ. The multiwavelength observations showed significant variability in essentially all energy bands, including a VHE γ-ray flare that lasted less than one night, which provided unprecedented evidence for short-term variability in 1ES 0806+524. The spectrum of this flare is well described by a power law with a photon index of 2.97 ± 0.29 between ~150 GeV and 1 TeV and an integral flux of (9.3 ± 1.9) per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 250 GeV. The spectrum during the non-flaring VHE activity is compatible with the only available VHE observation performed in 2008 with VERITAS when the source was in a low optical state. Lastly, the broad-band spectral energy distribution can be described with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model with parameters typical for HBLs, indicating that 1ES 0806+524 is not substantially different from the HBLs previously detected.

  5. The Impact of Historically Documented Land-use Changes On The Short-term Mesoscale Climate: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, N.; Eugster, W.; Schichler, B.

    In the first half of the 19th century land use and land cover in the three-lakes region on the Swiss Plateau was dramatically modified. Most of the formerly marshy and frequently inundated plains were drained and replaced by nowadays intensively used agricultural land. This case study investigates the effect of documented land-use and land-cover changes on the short-term climate (1-2 days) of typical summer days in July. In order to eval- uate the influences, a mesoscale dynamical non-hydrostatic model was used with a horizontal resolution of 500×500 m2, nested in a coarser grid of 10×10 km2. For both landscapes, the same atmospheric data were used for initial and border conditions. It was found that the impact of the land use on temperature and humidity in the at- mospheric boundary layer varies considerably with time, with significant changes oc- curring during daytime, peaking in the afternoon. However, the temporal occurrence of the changes also varied with the height above ground. The boundary-layer height over the region of landscape transformation was higher under past than present land- use conditions. In contrast to the simulated changes during daytime, the differences in nocturnal conditions were negligibly small. Furthermore, the question of how far the changes extended beyond the area of direct landscape transformation is adressed. Finally, it is discussed how the changes in the lowest few meters of the atmospheric boundary layer could possibly have affected the life of human beings in the area in- vestigated.

  6. Short-term effects of altered shell conductance on oxygen uptake and hematological variables of late chicken embryos.

    PubMed

    Tazawa, H; Nakazawa, S; Okuda, A; Whittow, G C

    1988-11-01

    The preceding report on the O2 uptake (MO2) of chicken embryos whose shell conductance (GO2) was altered from the beginning of incubation showed that the MO2 was decreased despite increased GO2 [Okuda, A. and H. Tazawa (1988) Respir. Physiol. 74: 187-198]. This was attributed to an excess water loss which reduced the growth of the embryos. The present study was designed to investigate the short-term effects of altered GO2, obviating the effect of excess water loss, on the MO2 and simultaneously on the hematological variables of embryos on days 16-17 and days 18-19 of incubation. The MO2 measured 5 h after increasing the GO2 was neither decreased nor increased significantly. The diffusing capacity of the chorio-allantoic membrane, which was estimated using the Bohr integration procedure, decreased as the GO2 was increased. When the GO2 was decreased, on the other hand, the decrease in MO2 was not so large as expected from the decrease in GO2, for both 16- and 18-day-old embryos. The effect of reduced GO2 on MO2 was more prominent in 18-day-old embryos than 16-day-old embryos. One-day-long hypoxia due to decreased GO2 induced erythropoiesis in 18-19-day embryos, but did not do so in 16-17-day embryos. The increase in hematocrit value of the latter group of embryos was attributed to an increase in cell volume due to concurrent hypercapnia.

  7. Short-term X-ray spectral variability of the quasar PDS 456 observed in a low-flux state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matzeu, G. A.; Reeves, J. N.; Nardini, E.; Braito, V.; Costa, M. T.; Tombesi, F.; Gofford, J.

    2016-05-01

    We present a detailed analysis of a recent, 2013 Suzaku campaign on the nearby (z = 0.184) luminous (Lbol ˜ 1047 erg s-1) quasar PDS 456. This consisted of three observations, covering a total duration of ˜1 Ms and a net exposure of 455 ks. During these observations, the X-ray flux was unusually low, suppressed by a factor of >10 in the soft X-ray band when compared to previous observations. We investigated the broad-band continuum by constructing a spectral energy distribution (SED), making use of the optical/UV photometry and hard X-ray spectra from the later simultaneous XMM-Newton and NuSTAR campaign in 2014. The high-energy part of this low-flux SED cannot be accounted for by physically self-consistent accretion disc and corona models without attenuation by absorbing gas, which partially covers a substantial fraction of the line of sight towards the X-ray continuum. At least two layers of absorbing gas are required, of column density log (NH,low/cm-2) = 22.3 ± 0.1 and log (NH,high/cm-2) = 23.2 ± 0.1, with average line-of-sight covering factors of ˜80 per cent (with typical ˜5 per cent variations) and 60 per cent (±10-15 per cent), respectively. During these observations PDS 456 displays significant short-term X-ray spectral variability, on time-scales of ˜100 ks, which can be accounted for by variable covering of the absorbing gas along the line of sight. The partial covering absorber prefers an outflow velocity of v_pc = 0.25^{+0.01}_{-0.05} c at the >99.9 per cent confidence level over the case where vpc = 0. This is consistent with the velocity of the highly ionized outflow responsible for the blueshifted iron K absorption profile. We therefore suggest that the partial covering clouds could be the denser, or clumpy part of an inhomogeneous accretion disc wind. Finally estimates are placed upon the size-scale of the X-ray emission region from the source variability. The radial extent of the X-ray emitter is found to be of the order ˜15-20Rg

  8. Poincaré plot analysis of ultra-short-term heart rate variability during recovery from exercise in physically active men.

    PubMed

    Gomes, Rayana L; Marques Vanderlei, Luiz C; Garner, David M; Ramos Santana, Milana D; de Abreu, Luiz C; Valenti, Vitor E

    2017-04-26

    Recently there has been increasing interest in the study of ultra-short- term heart rate variability (HRV) in sports performance and exercise physiology. In order to improve standardization of this specific analysis, we evaluated the ultra-short-term HRV analysis through SD1Poincaré index to identify exercise induced responses. We investigated 35 physically active men aged between 18 and 35 years old. Volunteers performed physical exercise on treadmill with intensity of 6.0 km / hour + 1% slope in the first five minutes for physical "warming up." This was followed by 25 minutes with intensity equivalent to 60% of Vmax, with the same slope according to the Conconi threshold. HRV was analyzed in the following periods: the five-minute period before the exercise and the five-minute period immediately after the exercise, the five minutes were divided into five segments of 60 RR intervals. Ultra-short-term RMSSD and SD1 analysis were performed. Ultra-short-term RMSSD and SD1 were significantly (p<0.0001) reduced during the initial five minutes divided into five segments of 60 RR intervals compared to (at rest) control. Heart rate was significantly (p<0.0001) increased 1 min and 3 min immediately after exercise compared to (at rest) control. At rest ultra-short-term SD1 presented significant correlation with short-term (256 RR intervals) RMSSD (r=0.78; p<0.0001), HF (r=0.574; p=0.0007) and SD1 (r=0.78; p<0.0001). Additionally, visual analysis with the Poincaré plot detected changes in HRV after exercise. Ultra-short-term HRV analysis through Poincaré plot identified heart rate autonomic responses induced by aerobic exercise.

  9. Double blind placebo controlled trial of short term transdermal scopolamine on heart rate variability in patients with chronic heart failure.

    PubMed Central

    Venkatesh, G.; Fallen, E. L.; Kamath, M. V.; Connolly, S.; Yusuf, S.

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that short term application of transdermal scopolamine increases heart rate variability (HRV) and restores sympathovagal balance in patients with stable congestive heart failure (CHF). DESIGN: A double blind placebo controlled crossover study. SETTING: Tertiary referral centre. PATIENTS: Twelve patients (mean age 66 (10)) with New York Heart Association class II-IV CHF. All patients had coronary artery disease (mean left ventricular ejection fraction 26.7 (8.9) %). INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive either a placebo skin patch or a transdermal scopolamine patch (Transderm, 0.05 mg/h). Patches remained in place for 48 hours with a 24 hour washout period before crossover. OUTCOME MEASURES: HRV was derived from (a) 24 hour time domain indices (mean RR interval, standard deviation of interbeat interval, and the baseline width of the frequency distribution of RR intervals) and (b) short data set (2.2 mm) power spectral measurements using autoregressive modelling. Autospectral measures were performed in both resting supine and standing (orthostatic) states. The 24 hour Holter record was obtained during the second day of patch application. RESULTS: There was a small but significant (P < 0.05) increase in all time domain HRV variables with scopolamine. There was a paradoxical fall in low frequency (LF) spectral power induced by orthostasis during baseline (-30%) and placebo (-34%) states. Conversely, scopolamine was associated with a 14% increase in LF power during orthostatic stress. Scopolamine thus significantly reduced the orthostatic fall in LF (P < 0.01) compared with either baseline or placebo values. No difference in circadian rhythm was seen between the scopolamine and placebo treatment periods. However, the abrupt fall in the high frequency (vagal) power during the early morning sleep-wake hours was reduced by scopolamine. Scopolamine was also associated with a significant rightward shift in the resting LF

  10. Short-term variability and mass loss in Be stars. II. Physical taxonomy of photometric variability observed by the Kepler spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivinius, Th.; Baade, D.; Carciofi, A. C.

    2016-09-01

    Context. Classical Be stars have been established as pulsating stars. Space-based photometric monitoring missions contributed significantly to that result. However, whether Be stars are just rapidly rotating SPB or β Cep stars, or whether they have to be understood differently, remains debated in the view of their highly complex power spectra. Aims: Kepler data of three known Be stars are re-visited to establish their pulsational nature and assess the properties of additional, non-pulsational variations. The three program stars turned out to be one inactive Be star, one active, continuously outbursting Be star, and one Be star transiting from a non-outbursting into an outbursting phase, thus forming an excellent sample to distill properties of Be stars in the various phases of their life-cycle. Methods: The Kepler data was first cleaned from any long-term variability with Lomb-Scargle based pre-whitening. Then a Lomb-Scargle analysis of the remaining short-term variations was compared to a wavelet analysis of the cleaned data. This offers a new view on the variability, as it enables us to see the temporal evolution of the variability and phase relations between supposed beating phenomena, which are typically not visualized in a Lomb-Scargle analysis. Results: The short-term photometric variability of Be stars must be disentangled into a stellar and a circumstellar part. The stellar part is on the whole not different from what is seen in non-Be stars. However, some of the observed phenomena might be to be due to resonant mode coupling, a mechanism not typically considered for B-type stars. Short-term circumstellar variability comes in the form of either a group of relatively well-defined, short-lived frequencies during outbursts, which are called Štefl frequencies, and broad bumps in the power spectra, indicating aperiodic variability on a time scale similar to typical low-order g-mode pulsation frequencies, rather than true periodicity. Conclusions: From a

  11. Increased Short-Term Beat-to-Beat QT Interval Variability in Patients with Impaired Glucose Tolerance.

    PubMed

    Orosz, Andrea; Baczkó, István; Nyiraty, Szabolcs; Körei, Anna E; Putz, Zsuzsanna; Takács, Róbert; Nemes, Attila; Várkonyi, Tamás T; Balogh, László; Ábrahám, György; Kempler, Péter; Papp, Julius Gy; Varró, András; Lengyel, Csaba

    2017-01-01

    Prediabetic states and diabetes are important risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Determination of short-term QT interval variability (STVQT) is a non-invasive method for assessment of proarrhythmic risk. The aim of the study was to evaluate the STVQT in patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). 18 IGT patients [age: 63 ± 11 years, body mass index (BMI): 31 ± 6 kg/m(2), fasting glucose: 6.0 ± 0.4 mmol/l, 120 min postload glucose: 9.0 ± 1.0 mmol/l, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c): 5.9 ± 0.4%; mean ± SD] and 18 healthy controls (age: 56 ± 9 years, BMI: 27 ± 5 kg/m(2), fasting glucose: 5.2 ± 0.4 mmol/l, 120 min postload glucose: 5.5 ± 1.3 mmol/l, HbA1c: 5.4 ± 0.3%) were enrolled into the study. ECGs were recorded, processed, and analyzed off-line. The RR and QT intervals were expressed as the average of 30 consecutive beats, the temporal instability of beat-to-beat repolarization was characterized by calculating STVQT as follows: STVQT = Σ|QTn + 1 - QTn| (30x√2)(-1). Autonomic function was assessed by means of standard cardiovascular reflex tests. There were no differences between IGT and control groups in QT (411 ± 43 vs 402 ± 39 ms) and QTc (431 ± 25 vs 424 ± 19 ms) intervals or QT dispersion (44 ± 13 vs 42 ± 17 ms). However, STVQT was significantly higher in IGT patients (5.0 ± 0.7 vs 3.7 ± 0.7, P < 0.0001). The elevated temporal STVQT in patients with IGT may be an early indicator of increased instability of cardiac repolarization during prediabetic conditions.

  12. Consecutive ultra-short-term heart rate variability to track dynamic changes in autonomic nervous system during and after exercise.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiang; Yao, Ruijie; Yin, Gezhen; Li, Jin

    2017-06-22

    Quantitative measurement of the dynamic changes in autonomic nervous system (ANS) during and after exercise has great significance in clinical, sports training and other fields. A consecutive ultra-short-term (30 s, UST) heart rate variability (HRV) method was proposed to track the exercise-induced autonomic control of heart rate (HR). Twenty-three healthy young men participated in the study. The first four stages of the Modified Bruce Protocol (S0-S3) were performed. Six HRV indices, i.e. HF (power of high frequency ranged from 0.15 to 0.4 Hz), LF (power of low frequency ranged from 0.04 to 0.15 Hz), LF/HF, SD1 and SD2 of Poincaré plot, and SD2/SD1, over 30 s were calculated every 5 s over 3 min RR time series during, as well as after, exercise. The results showed that during exercise, SD1, SD2, HF and LF dropped down quickly and tended to stabilize. Particularly, SD1 and HF showed a slight upward trend in the lower three stages while the declining time of SD2 in S3 lasted longer than the other stages. SD2/SD1 increased rapidly first and then decreased slowly. The values of SD2/SD1 in S3 remained higher than those in the other stages. After exercise, SD1, SD2, HF and LF kept increasing first and then declined slowly or fluctuated with decaying amplitudes. SD2/SD1 increased initially, then decreased and fluctuated slightly. Compared with the indices in frequency domain, the Poincaré indices were more sensitive and accurate in UST measurement of ANS during exercise. The results demonstrated that the UST method could characterize the dynamic changing tendency of ANS during and after exercise and quantify the differences of changes in ANS induced by exercise with different intensities. In particular, the vagal branch functioned dominantly in controlling HR in S0 but the effect of the sympathetic branch on HR enhanced with the increase of exercise intensity. In addition, the transient changes of ANS related with the sudden onset of exercise could also be

  13. Cell type dependence and variability in the short-term plasticity of EPSCs in identified mouse hippocampal interneurones

    PubMed Central

    Losonczy, Attila; Zhang, Limei; Shigemoto, Ryuichi; Somogyi, Peter; Nusser, Zoltan

    2002-01-01

    Synapses exhibit different short-term plasticity patterns and this behaviour influences information processing in neuronal networks. We tested how the short-term plasticity of excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) depends on the postsynaptic cell type, identified by axonal arborizations and molecular markers in the hippocampal CA1 area. Three distinct types of short-term synaptic behaviour (facilitating, depressing and combined facilitating–depressing) were defined by fitting a dynamic neurotransmission model to the data. Approximately 75 % of the oriens-lacunosum-moleculare (O-LM) interneurones received facilitating EPSCs, but in three of 12 O-LM cells EPSCs also showed significant depression. Over 90 % of the O-LM cells were immunopositive for somatostatin and mGluR1α and all tested cells were decorated by strongly mGluR7a positive axon terminals. Responses in eight of 12 basket cells were described well with a model involving only depression, but the other cells displayed combined facilitating–depressing EPSCs. No apparent difference was found between the plasticity of EPSCs in cholecystokinin- or parvalbumin-containing basket cells. In oriens-bistratified cells (O-Bi), two of nine cells showed facilitating EPSCs, another two depressing, and the remaining five cells combined facilitating–depressing EPSCs. Seven of 10 cells tested for somatostatin were immunopositive, but mGluR1α was detectable only in two of 11 tested cells. Furthermore, most O-Bi cells projected to the CA3 area and the subiculum, as well as outside the hippocampal formation. Postsynaptic responses to action potentials recorded in vivo from a CA1 place cell were modelled, and revealed great differences between and within cell types. Our results demonstrate that the short-term plasticity of EPSCs is cell type dependent, but with significant heterogeneity within all three interneurone populations. PMID:12096061

  14. Cell type dependence and variability in the short-term plasticity of EPSCs in identified mouse hippocampal interneurones.

    PubMed

    Losonczy, Attila; Zhang, Limei; Shigemoto, Ryuichi; Somogyi, Peter; Nusser, Zoltan

    2002-07-01

    Synapses exhibit different short-term plasticity patterns and this behaviour influences information processing in neuronal networks. We tested how the short-term plasticity of excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) depends on the postsynaptic cell type, identified by axonal arborizations and molecular markers in the hippocampal CA1 area. Three distinct types of short-term synaptic behaviour (facilitating, depressing and combined facilitating-depressing) were defined by fitting a dynamic neurotransmission model to the data. Approximately 75 % of the oriens-lacunosum-moleculare (O-LM) interneurones received facilitating EPSCs, but in three of 12 O-LM cells EPSCs also showed significant depression. Over 90 % of the O-LM cells were immunopositive for somatostatin and mGluR1alpha and all tested cells were decorated by strongly mGluR7a positive axon terminals. Responses in eight of 12 basket cells were described well with a model involving only depression, but the other cells displayed combined facilitating-depressing EPSCs. No apparent difference was found between the plasticity of EPSCs in cholecystokinin- or parvalbumin-containing basket cells. In oriens-bistratified cells (O-Bi), two of nine cells showed facilitating EPSCs, another two depressing, and the remaining five cells combined facilitating-depressing EPSCs. Seven of 10 cells tested for somatostatin were immunopositive, but mGluR1alpha was detectable only in two of 11 tested cells. Furthermore, most O-Bi cells projected to the CA3 area and the subiculum, as well as outside the hippocampal formation. Postsynaptic responses to action potentials recorded in vivo from a CA1 place cell were modelled, and revealed great differences between and within cell types. Our results demonstrate that the short-term plasticity of EPSCs is cell type dependent, but with significant heterogeneity within all three interneurone populations.

  15. Head-down bed rest reduces the breathing rate short-term variability in subjects with orthostatic intolerance.

    PubMed

    Balocchi, R; Menicucci, D; Varanini, M; Chillemi, S; Legramante, J M; Saltini, C; Raimondi, G

    2004-07-01

    Orthostatic intolerance is the most serious symptom of cardiovascular deconditioning induced by microgravity. We have showed that in symptomatic subjects the baroreflex control of sinus node is affected by short term simulated microgravity. At present the influence of the respiration on the cardiovascular system in this condition is not clear. The aim of the present study was to examine the behaviour of the Breathing Rate (BR) in 5 Non-Symptomatic (NS) and 3 Symptomatic (S) subjects before and after 4 hours of head-down bed rest (HD).

  16. Short-term variability on mesozooplankton community in a shallow mixed estuary (Bahía Blanca, Argentina): Influence of tidal cycles and local winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menéndez, María C.; Piccolo, María C.; Hoffmeyer, Mónica S.

    2012-10-01

    The short-term dynamics of zooplankton in coastal ecosystems are strongly influenced by physical processes such as tides, riverine runoff and winds. In this study, we investigated the short-term changes of the representative taxa within mesozooplankton in relation to the semidiurnal tidal cycles. Also, we evaluated the influence of local winds on this short-term variability. Sampling was carried out bimonthly from December 2004 to April 2006 in a fixed point located in the inner zone of the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina. Mesozooplankton samples were taken by pumps during 14-h tidal cycles at 3-h intervals, from surface and bottom. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity as well as water samples to determine suspended particulate matter were acquired at each sampling date. All data concerning winds were obtained from a meteorological station and water level was recorded with a tide gauge. Holoplankton dominated numerically on meroplankton and adventitious fraction. Concerning holoplanktonic abundance, the highest values were attained by the calanoid copepods Acartia tonsa and Eurytemora americana. Meroplankton occurred mainly as barnacle larvae while benthic harpacticoids and Corophium sp. dominated the adventitious component. Semidiurnal tide was the main influence on the A. tonsa variability. However, noticeable differences in the abundance pattern as function of wind intensity were detected. Meroplankton abundance did not show a clear variation along the tidal cycle. Distributional pattern of harpacticoids seemed to be mainly modulated by velocity asymmetries in the tidal currents, in the same way as suspended particulate matter. However, the Corophium sp. distribution indicated probable behavioural responses associated with tides. The obtained results show how variable the mesozooplankton community structure can be over short-term time scales in mesotidal temperate estuaries. This variability should be taken into account for any zooplankton monitoring

  17. Biological and physicochemical factors controlling short-term variability in phytoplankton primary production and photosynthetic parameters in a macrotidal ecosystem (eastern English Channel)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouenne, Fabien; Lefebvre, Sébastien; Véron, Benoît; Lagadeuc, Yvan

    2005-11-01

    Links between short-term variability of phytoplankton primary production and community structure changes have been studied rarely. This has been examined in a macrotidal ecosystem, the Baie des Veys (eastern English Channel, France), in 2003 and 2004, over the complete tidal cycle (semi-diurnal mode, 12 h). Within this area, primary production and photosynthetic parameter estimates, according to the 14C incorporation technique, were supported by an exhaustive taxonomic study and measurements of physicochemical factors to illustrate the environmental framework. Related to the river Vire discharge, daily interactions between estuarine and bay waters were demonstrated. Depth-integrated primary production P z was maximal around noon in the bay (48.7-68.0 mg C m -2 h -1) and decreased through the day in the mouth of the river. Photosynthetic parameters' variations and photoacclimation were influenced by the ecosystem variability level: short-term photoacclimation was possible in low mixing conditions. Changes in taxonomic composition according to tidal forcing led to variations in primary production levels. Large species, associated with high photosynthetic parameters, were observed in the bay, whereas small ones were present in the mouth of the river, when low primary production was measured. On a short-time scale, a positive relationship was observed between species diversity and primary production. This work emphasizes the need to focus on changes in phytoplankton community structure in order to understand short-term variability in primary production.

  18. Deglacial-Holocene short-term variability in sea-ice distribution on the Eurasian shelf (Arctic Ocean) - An IP25 biomarker reconstruction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hörner, Tanja; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-04-01

    Four well-dated sediment cores from the Eurasian continental shelf, i.e., the Kara Sea (Cores BP99/07 and BP00/07) and Laptev Sea (Cores PS51/154 and PS51/159), were selected for high-resolution reconstruction of past Arctic environmental conditions during the deglacial-Holocene time interval. These marginal seas are strongly affected by the post-glacial sea-level rise of about 120m. The major focus of our study was the reconstruction of the paleo-sea-ice distribution as sea-ice plays a key role within the modern and past climate system. For reconstruction of paleo-sea ice, the sea-ice proxy IP25 in combination with open-water phytoplankton biomarkers was used (for approach see Belt et al., 2007; Müller et al., 2009, 2011). In addition, specific sterols were determined to reconstruct changes in river run-off and biological production. The post-glacial sea-level rise is especially reflected in prominent decrease in terrigenous biomarkers. Deglacial variations in sea-ice cover sustained for thousand of years, mostly following climatic changes like the Bølling/Allerød (14.7-12.9 ka), Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka) and Holocene warm phase (10-8 ka). Superimposed on a (Late) Holocene cooling trend, short-term fluctuations in sea-ice cover (on centennial scale) are distinctly documented in the distal/off-shore Core BP00/07 from the Kara Sea, less pronounced in the proximal/near-shore Core PS99/07 and in the Laptev Sea cores. Interestingly, this short-term variability in sea-ice cover correlates quite well to changes in Siberian river run-off (e.g., Stein et al. 2004), pointing to a direct linkage between precipitation (atmospheric circulation) and sea-ice formation. References Belt, S.T., Massé, G., Rowland, S.J., Poulin, M., Michel, C., LeBlanc, B., 2007. A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25. Organic Geochemistry 38, 16-27. Müller, J., Masse, G., Stein, R., Belt, S.T., 2009. Variability of sea-ice conditions in the Fram Strait over the past 30,000 years

  19. Role of the Soil Thermal Inertia in the short term variability of the surface temperature and consequences for the soil-moisture temperature feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheruy, Frederique; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Ait Mesbah, Sonia; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; Wang, Fuxing

    2017-04-01

    A simple model based on the surface energy budget at equilibrium is developed to compute the sensitivity of the climatological mean daily temperature and diurnal amplitude to the soil thermal inertia. It gives a conceptual framework to quantity the role of the atmospheric and land surface processes in the surface temperature variability and relies on the diurnal amplitude of the net surface radiation, the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes to the surface temperature and the thermal inertia. The performances of the model are first evaluated with 3D numerical simulations performed with the atmospheric (LMDZ) and land surface (ORCHIDEE) modules of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) climate model. A nudging approach is adopted, it prevents from using time-consuming long-term simulations required to account for the natural variability of the climate and allow to draw conclusion based on short-term (several years) simulations. In the moist regions the diurnal amplitude and the mean surface temperature are controlled by the latent heat flux. In the dry areas, the relevant role of the stability of the boundary layer and of the soil thermal inertia is demonstrated. In these regions, the sensitivity of the surface temperature to the thermal inertia is high, due to the high contribution of the thermal flux to the energy budget. At high latitudes, when the sensitivity of turbulent fluxes is dominated by the day-time sensitivity of the sensible heat flux to the surface temperature and when this later is comparable to the thermal inertia term of the sensitivity equation, the surface temperature is also partially controlled by the thermal inertia which can rely on the snow properties; In the regions where the latent heat flux exhibits a high day-to-day variability, such as transition regions, the thermal inertia has also significant impact on the surface temperature variability . In these not too wet (energy limited) and not too dry (moisture-limited) soil moisture (SM

  20. Winchester/Camberley Homes New Construction Test House Design, Construction, and Short-Term Testing in a Mixed-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-10-01

    The NAHB Research Center partnered with production builder Winchester/Camberley Homes to build a new construction test house in the mixed-humid climate zone of Silver Spring, MD in June 2011. The goal for this house was to improve energy efficiency by 30% over the Building America B10 benchmark through an optimized energy solutions package design that could be constructed on a production basis. This report outlines the features of this house, discusses the energy efficient design, and reports on short-term testing results.

  1. The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

    2017-08-01

    The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

  2. Short-term microbial and physico-chemical variability in low-temperature hydrothermal fluids near 5 degrees S on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

    PubMed

    Perner, Mirjam; Bach, Wolfgang; Hentscher, Michael; Koschinsky, Andrea; Garbe-Schönberg, Dieter; Streit, Wolfgang R; Strauss, Harald

    2009-10-01

    This study examines the representativeness of low-temperature hydrothermal fluid samples with respect to their chemical and microbiological characteristics. Within this scope, we investigated short-term temporal chemical and microbial variability of the hydrothermal fluids. For this purpose we collected three fluid samples consecutively from the same spot at the Clueless field near 5 degrees S on the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge over a period of 50 min. During sampling, the temperature was monitored online. We measured fluid chemical parameters, characterized microbial community compositions and used statistical analyses to determine significant differences between the samples. Overall, the three fluid samples are more closely related to each other than to any other tested habitat. Therefore, on a broad scale, the three collected fluid samples can be regarded as habitat representatives. However, small differences are apparent between all samples. One of the Clueless samples even displayed significant differences (P-value < 0.01) to the other two Clueless samples. Our data suggest that the observed variations in fluid chemical and microbial compositions are not reflecting sampling artefacts but are related to short-term fluid variability due to dynamic subseafloor fluid mixing. Recorded temporal changes in fact reflect spatial heterogeneity found in the subsurface as the fluid flows through distinctive pathways. While conservative elements (Cl, Si, Na and K) indicate variable degrees of fluid-seawater mixing, reactive components, including Fe(II), O(2) and H(2)S, show that chemical and microbial reactions within the mixing zone further modify the emanating fluids on short-time scales. Fluids entrain microorganisms, which modify the chemical microenvironment within the subsurface biotopes. This is the first study focusing on short-term microbial variability linked to chemical changes in hydrothermal fluids.

  3. Ultra-short-term heart rate variability indexes at rest and post-exercise in athletes: evaluating the agreement with accepted recommendations.

    PubMed

    Esco, Michael R; Flatt, Andrew A

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the agreement of the vagal-related heart rate variability index, log-transformed root mean square of successive R-R intervals (lnRMSSD), measured under ultra-short-term conditions (< 60 seconds) with conventional longer term recordings of 5 minutes in collegiate athletes under resting and post-exercise conditions. Electrocardiographic readings were collected from twenty-three athletes within 5-minute segments at rest and at 25-30 minutes of supine recovery following a maximal exercise test. From each 5-minute segment, lnRMSSD was recorded as the criterion measure. Within each 5-minute segment, lnRMSSD was also determined from randomly selected ultra-short-term segments of 10-, 30-, and 60-seconds in length, which were compared to the criterion. When compared to the criterion measures, the significant intraclass correlation (from 0.98 to 0.81, p < 0.05) and typical error (from 0.11 to 0.34) increased as ultra-short-term measurement duration decreased (i.e., from 60 seconds to 10 seconds). In addition, the limits of agreement (Bias ± 1.98 SD) increased as ultra-short-term lnRMSSD duration decreased as follows: 0.00 ± 0.22 ms, -0.07 ± 0.41 ms, -0.20 ± 0.94 ms for the 60-, 30-, and 10-second pre-exercise segments, respectively, and -0.15 ± 0.39 ms, -0.14 ± 0.53 ms, -0.12 ± 0.76 ms for the 60-, 30-, and 10-second post-exercise segments, respectively. This study demonstrated that as ultra-short-term measurement duration decreased from 60 seconds to 10 seconds, the agreement to the criterion decreased. Therefore, 60 seconds appears to be an acceptable recording time for lnRMSSD data collection in collegiate athletes. Key PointsThe log-transformed root mean square of successive R-R intervals (lnRMSSD) is a vagal-related heart rate variability index that has become a promising method for monitoring individual adaptation to training when measured during resting or post-exercise conditions.This study demonstrated that ln

  4. Ultra-Short-Term Heart Rate Variability Indexes at Rest and Post-Exercise in Athletes: Evaluating the Agreement with Accepted Recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Esco, Michael R.; Flatt, Andrew A.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the agreement of the vagal-related heart rate variability index, log-transformed root mean square of successive R-R intervals (lnRMSSD), measured under ultra-short-term conditions (< 60 seconds) with conventional longer term recordings of 5 minutes in collegiate athletes under resting and post-exercise conditions. Electrocardiographic readings were collected from twenty-three athletes within 5-minute segments at rest and at 25-30 minutes of supine recovery following a maximal exercise test. From each 5-minute segment, lnRMSSD was recorded as the criterion measure. Within each 5-minute segment, lnRMSSD was also determined from randomly selected ultra-short-term segments of 10-, 30-, and 60-seconds in length, which were compared to the criterion. When compared to the criterion measures, the significant intraclass correlation (from 0.98 to 0.81, p < 0.05) and typical error (from 0.11 to 0.34) increased as ultra-short-term measurement duration decreased (i.e., from 60 seconds to 10 seconds). In addition, the limits of agreement (Bias ± 1.98 SD) increased as ultra-short-term lnRMSSD duration decreased as follows: 0.00 ± 0.22 ms, -0.07 ± 0.41 ms, -0.20 ± 0.94 ms for the 60-, 30-, and 10-second pre-exercise segments, respectively, and -0.15 ± 0.39 ms, -0.14 ± 0.53 ms, -0.12 ± 0.76 ms for the 60-, 30-, and 10-second post-exercise segments, respectively. This study demonstrated that as ultra-short-term measurement duration decreased from 60 seconds to 10 seconds, the agreement to the criterion decreased. Therefore, 60 seconds appears to be an acceptable recording time for lnRMSSD data collection in collegiate athletes. Key Points The log-transformed root mean square of successive R-R intervals (lnRMSSD) is a vagal-related heart rate variability index that has become a promising method for monitoring individual adaptation to training when measured during resting or post-exercise conditions. This study demonstrated that ln

  5. Assessment of cardiac autonomic function in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy using short term heart rate variability measures.

    PubMed

    Dhargave, Pradnya; Nalini, Atchayaram; Abhishekh, Hulegar Ashok; Meghana, Adoor; Nagarathna, Raghuram; Raju, Trichur R; Sathyaprabha, Talakad N

    2014-05-01

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a hereditary neuromuscular disorder frequently associated with progressive cardiac dysfunction, and is one of the common causes of death in these children. Early diagnostic markers of cardiac involvement might help in timely intervention. In this study we compared the short term HRV measures of DMD children with that of healthy subjects. One hundred and twenty-four genetically confirmed boys with DMD and 50 age matched controls were recruited. Error-free, electrocardiogram was recorded in all subjects at rest in the supine position. HRV parameters were computed in time and frequency domains. Time domain measures included standard deviation of NN interval (SDNN), and root of square mean of successive NN interval (RMSSD). Frequency domain consisted of total, low frequency and high frequency power values. Ratio of low frequency and high frequency power values (LF/HF) was determined using customized software. HRV parameters were significantly altered in DMD children as compared to healthy controls. Following parameters [mean (SD)] were reduced in DMD as compared to controls; RMSSD (in ms) [52.14 (33.2) vs 64.64 (43.2); p = 0.038], High frequency component (nu) [38.77 (14.4) vs 48.02 (17.1); p = 0.001] suggesting a loss of vagal tone. In contrast, measure of sympathovagal balance LF/HF [1.18 (0.87) vs 0.89 (0.79); p = 0.020] was increased in DMD group. In this cross sectional study we have demonstrated alteration in autonomic tone in DMD. Loss of vagal tone and an increase in sympathetic tone were observed in DMD children. Further prospective studies are required to confirm the utility of these measures as predictors of adverse cardiac outcome in DMD. Copyright © 2014 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

    Treesearch

    Jakob Zscheischler; Simone Fatichi; Sebastian Wolf; Peter D. Blanken; Gil Bohrer; Ken Clark; Ankur R. Desai; David Hollinger; Trevor Keenan; Kimberly A. Novick; Sonia I. Seneviratne

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their...

  7. Short-term streamflow forecasting with global climate change implications A comparative study between genetic programming and neural network models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makkeasorn, A.; Chang, N. B.; Zhou, X.

    2008-05-01

    SummarySustainable water resources management is a critically important priority across the globe. While water scarcity limits the uses of water in many ways, floods may also result in property damages and the loss of life. To more efficiently use the limited amount of water under the changing world or to resourcefully provide adequate time for flood warning, the issues have led us to seek advanced techniques for improving streamflow forecasting on a short-term basis. This study emphasizes the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) in addition to the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution via the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), meteorological data via local weather stations, and historical stream data via USGS gage stations to collectively forecast discharges in a semi-arid watershed in south Texas. Two types of artificial intelligence models, including genetic programming (GP) and neural network (NN) models, were employed comparatively. Four numerical evaluators were used to evaluate the validity of a suite of forecasting models. Research findings indicate that GP-derived streamflow forecasting models were generally favored in the assessment in which both SST and meteorological data significantly improve the accuracy of forecasting. Among several scenarios, NEXRAD rainfall data were proven its most effectiveness for a 3-day forecast, and SST Gulf-to-Atlantic index shows larger impacts than the SST Gulf-to-Pacific index on the streamflow forecasts. The most forward looking GP-derived models can even perform a 30-day streamflow forecast ahead of time with an r-square of 0.84 and RMS error 5.4 in our study.

  8. Perceptual-Gestural (Mis)Mapping in Serial Short-Term Memory: The Impact of Talker Variability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hughes, Robert W.; Marsh, John E.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2009-01-01

    The mechanisms underlying the poorer serial recall of talker-variable lists (e.g., alternating female-male voices) as compared with single-voice lists were examined. We tested the novel hypothesis that this "talker variability effect" arises from the tendency for perceptual organization to partition the list into streams based on voice…

  9. OT2_jforbric_3: Probing short-term far-infrared variability of protostars and exploring afterglows of X-ray disk heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbrich, J.

    2011-09-01

    Recent studies have shown that there is a surprising amount of variability on many timescales in the mid-infrared emission of young stellar objects (YSOs). Especially on short timescales of minutes to hours, mid- and particularly far-infrared variability is currently almost entirely unexplored. While such variability is probing circumstellar disks and envelopes, it is linked to physical processes on the central object. Already the earliest evolutionary stages of YSOs are also strong X-ray emitters, and one important aspect is the heating and possible eventual dispersal of circumstellar disks due to X-ray emission. Even though very important for the understanding of planet formation, this process is poorly understood. The Herschel Space Observatory offers the last possibility for the foreseeable future to explore these processes in more detail and learn about disk heating and explore the occurrence of short-term variability. Here, we propose to do both by repeated observations of the extensively studied nearby Coronet cluster in the CrA star-forming region. Five epochs of near-simultaneous XMM-Newton and Herschel observations, each about 1.5h in duration and spaced by timescales of days to weeks, are meant to explore the short-term variability and link it to the more frequently studied variability on longer timescales. During each epoch, the cluster is mapped 18 times with Herschel. The Coronet has been chosen for having YSOs that can be detected at high S/N in short periods of time while not being too crowded for the angular resolution of both observatories. By exploring far-infrared variability on timescales of several minutes to days and weeks as well as disk heating by protostellar X-ray emission, these short observations will have a unique legacy value.

  10. A knowledge-based system for the diagnosis and prediction of short-term climatic changes in the North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Rodionov, S.; Martin, J.H.

    1996-08-01

    Understanding and predicting climate change is the key problem in climatology. The most well-accepted current approach to this problem involves the development of general circulation models (GCMs). This approach is based on modeling fundamental physical principles in large computer programs. At the same time, however, an increasingly large proportion of the available information regarding the climate system exists in the form of heuristics, or empirical rules of thumb. The objective of the CESNA (Climatic Expert System For the North Atlantic) project is to develop a practical system that can manipulate this qualitative information in such a way as to facilitate insights into observed and anticipated climate changes. The methods used to reach this objective are based on concepts and techniques derived artificial intelligence research on representing and reasoning with uncertain knowledge. A recently completed evaluation of the prototype CESNA measured how well it could predict the sea temperature of the Kola section of the barents sea for the period 1965 to 1991 with a one-year lead time. The system`s predictions paralleled the observed temperatures with remarkable accuracy. Similar results were obtained for two other regions, the northwest Atlantic and the southeastern United States. Qualitatively, these experiments show that even though some rules may be poor predictors in a given year, the combined evidence from the remaining results in an accurate prediction. 37 refs., 1 fig.

  11. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; Blanken, Peter D.; Bohrer, Gil; Clark, Kenneth; Desai, Ankur R.; Hollinger, David; Keenan, Trevor; Novick, Kimberly A.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-08-01

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the "most active hours/days" (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.

  12. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes.

    PubMed

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; Blanken, Peter D; Bohrer, Gil; Clark, Kenneth; Desai, Ankur R; Hollinger, David; Keenan, Trevor; Novick, Kimberly A; Seneviratne, Sonia I

    2016-08-01

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the "most active hours/days" (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.

  13. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

    DOE PAGES

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; ...

    2016-08-08

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence ofmore » favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.« less

  14. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

    SciTech Connect

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; Blanken, Peter D.; Bohrer, Gil; Clark, Kenneth; Desai, Ankur R.; Hollinger, David; Keenan, Trevor; Novick, Kimberly A.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-08-08

    Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.

  15. Lessons learned from Applications of a Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty - the Short Term and the Long Term

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, P. A.; Wi, S.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Rodriguez, D.; Garcia, L.; Brown, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty is a hierarchical, staged framework for accomplishing climate change risk management in water resources system investments. Since its development for the World Bank Water Group two years ago, the framework has been applied to pilot demonstration projects in Nepal (hydropower generation), Mexico (water supply), Kenya (multipurpose reservoir operation), and Indonesia (flood risks to dam infrastructure). An important finding of the Decision Tree demonstration projects has been the need to present the risks/opportunities of climate change to stakeholders and investors in proportion to risks/opportunities and hazards of other kinds. This presentation will provide an overview of tools and techniques used to quantify risks/opportunities to each of the project types listed above, with special attention to those found most useful for exploration of the risk space. Careful exploration of the risk/opportunity space shows that some interventions would be better taken now, whereas risks/opportunities of other types would be better instituted incrementally in order to maintain reversibility and flexibility. A number of factors contribute to the robustness/flexibility tradeoff: available capital, magnitude and imminence of potential risk/opportunity, modular (or not) character of investment, and risk aversion of the decision maker, among others. Finally, in each case, nuance was required in the translation of Decision Tree findings into actionable policy recommendations. Though the narrative of stakeholder solicitation, engagement, and ultimate partnership is unique to each case, summary lessons are available from the portfolio that can serve as a guideline to the community of climate change risk managers.

  16. Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

    PubMed

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

  17. Plants, Birds and Butterflies: Short-Term Responses of Species Communities to Climate Warming Vary by Taxon and with Altitude

    PubMed Central

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003–2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world. PMID:24416144

  18. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  19. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  20. Effect of short-term practice of pranayamic breathing exercises on cognition, anxiety, general well being and heart rate variability.

    PubMed

    Chandla, S S; Sood, S; Dogra, R; Das, S; Shukla, S K; Gupta, Sanjay

    2013-10-01

    There has been an increasing interest in pranayamic breathing exercises which have been known to improve the quality of life. Present study was conducted to find out the effect of Bhastrika and Anulom Vilom Pranayam and yogasana on heart rate variability, general well being, cognition and anxiety levels of the medical students. Ninety-six medical students were randomly divided into two groups. One group performed Bhastrika and Anulom Vilom Pranayam and the second Suryanamaskar for six weeks. The subjects were made to fill in PGI memory scale, Hamilton- anxiety scale and psychological general well being schedule and recording of heart rate variability parameters was done, before and after six weeks of pranayam practice. The results showed highly significant increase in high frequency (HF) components of heart rate variability and decrease in low frequency (LF) components and LF/HF inthe group practising pranayam. There was also highly significant improvement of cognition, general well being and anxiety as shown by the PGI memory scale, Hamilton- anxiety scale and psychological general well being schedule scores in this group. In the yogasana group no significant changes were observed in the heart rate variability, cognition and anxiety although psychological general well being schedule scores significantly improved after six weeks practice of yogasana. The study shows that practice of slow breathing type of pranayam for six weeks improves cognition, anxiety and general well being and Increases the parasympathetic activity. Whereas there was no effect of the yogasana on the above parameters except improvements in the general well being.

  1. Relationship Between Changes in Pulse Pressure and Frequency Domain Components of Heart Rate Variability During Short-Term Left Ventricular Pacing in Patients with Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy.

    PubMed

    Urbanek, Bożena; Ruta, Jan; Kudryński, Krzysztof; Ptaszyński, Paweł; Klimczak, Artur; Wranicz, Jerzy Krzysztof

    2016-06-15

    BACKGROUND The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between changes in pulse pressure (PP) and frequency domain heart rate variability (HRV) components caused by left ventricular pacing in patients with implanted cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). MATERIAL AND METHODS Forty patients (mean age 63±8.5 years) with chronic heart failure (CHF) and implanted CRT were enrolled in the study. The simultaneous 5-minute recording of beat-to-beat arterial systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) by Finometer and standard electrocardiogram with CRT switched off (CRT/0) and left ventricular pacing (CRT/LV) was performed. PP (PP=SBP-DBP) and low- and high-frequency (LF and HF) HRV components were calculated, and the relationship between these parameters was analyzed. RESULTS Short-term CRT/LV in comparison to CRT/0 caused a statistically significant increase in the values of PP (P<0.05), LF (P<0.05), and HF (P<0.05). A statistically significant correlation between ΔPP and ΔHF (R=0.7384, P<0.05) was observed. The ΔHF of 6 ms2 during short-term CRT/LV predicted a PP increase of ≥10% with 84.21% sensitivity and 85.71% specificity. CONCLUSIONS During short-term left ventricular pacing in patients with CRT, a significant correlation between ΔPP and ΔHF was observed. ΔHF ≥6 ms2 may serve as a tool in the selection of a suitable site for placement of a left ventricular lead.

  2. Cardiac autonomic functions derived from short-term heart rate variability recordings associated with heart rate recovery after treadmill exercise test in young individuals.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ju-Yi; Lee, Yungling Leo; Tsai, Wei-Chuan; Lee, Cheng-Han; Chen, Po-Sheng; Li, Yi-Heng; Tsai, Liang-Miin; Chen, Jyh-Hong; Lin, Li-Jen

    2011-05-01

    Analysis of short-term heart rate variability (HRV) may provide useful information about autonomic nervous control of heart rate recovery. We studied 495 individuals (273 men), age range 19-85 years, submitted to treadmill exercise tests and short-term HRV evaluations over time (standard deviation of the normal-to-normal interval [SDNN], the square root of the mean squared differences of successive normal-to-normal intervals [RMSSD], the number of interval differences of successive normal-to-normal intervals greater than 50 ms [NN50 count], the proportion derived by dividing NN50 count by the total number of normal-to-normal intervals [pNN50]) and frequency (low-frequency power [LF], high-frequency power [HF], total power) domains. Among 495 patients, 106 patients (68 men) were elderly (age ≥ 65 years). Male gender and hypertension were significantly higher in elderly patients. The young patients had higher HRR after exercise. HRR at 4 min (54 ± 13 vs 60 ± 12 beats/min; P = 0.003) was the most significant predictor for positive exercise test result. In the young group, both time domain measures (SDNN: correlation coefficient 0.34, P < 0.001; RMSSD: correlation coefficient 0.37, P < 0.001) and frequency domain measures (LF: correlation coefficient 0.21, P < 0.001; HF: correlation coefficient 0.13, P = 0.01; total power: correlation coefficient 0.22, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with HRR at 4 min. HRR at 4 min was significantly associated with short-term HRV of time and frequency domains in young individuals, but not elderly ones, receiving treadmill exercise test.

  3. Winchester/Camberley Homes New Construction Test House Design, Construction, and Short-Term Testing in a Mixed-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Mallav, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Wood, A.

    2012-10-01

    The NAHB Research Center partnered with production builder Winchester/Camberley Homes to build a DOE Building America New Construction Test House (NCTH). This single family, detached house, located in the mixed-humid climate zone of Silver Spring, MD, was completed in June 2011. The primary goal for this house was to improve energy efficiency by 30% over the Building America B10 benchmark by developing and implementing an optimized energy solutions package design that could be cost effectively and reliably constructed on a production basis using quality management practices. The intent of this report is to outline the features of this house, discuss the implementation of the energy efficient design, and report on short-term testing results. During the interactive design process of this project, numerous iterations of the framing, air sealing, insulation, and space conditioning systems were evaluated for energy performance, cost, and practical implementation. The final design featured numerous advanced framing techniques, high levels of insulation, and the HVAC system entirely within conditioned space. Short-term testing confirmed a very tight thermal envelope and efficient and effective heating and cooling. In addition, relevant heating, cooling, humidity, energy, and wall cavity moisture data will be collected and presented in a future long-term report.

  4. Interrupter technique in infancy: Higher airway resistance and lower short-term variability in preterm versus term infants.

    PubMed

    Usemann, Jakob; Demann, Désirée; Anagnostopoulou, Pinelopi; Korten, Insa; Gorlanova, Olga; Schulzke, Sven; Frey, Urs; Latzin, Philipp

    2017-10-01

    In preschool children, measurement of airway resistance using interrupter technique (Rint) is feasible to assess the degree of bronchial obstruction. Although some studies measured Rint in infancy, values of Rint and its variability in preterm infants are unknown. In this study, Rint and its variability was measured at infancy and compared between healthy term and preterm infants. High quality Rint measurements in term (n = 50) and preterm (n = 48) infants were obtained at postmenstrual age of 42-50 weeks in two study centers in Switzerland. Intra-measurement variability of Rint in one measurement and inter-measurement variability between two subsequent measurements was assessed by coefficient of variation (CV). Mean Rint in term infants was 4.2 ± (SD; 1.9) kPa · s · L(-1) and in preterm infants was 5.6 ± (2.8) kPa · s · L(-1) . Mean CV in term infants was 29.6 ± (14.9)% and in preterm infants was 20.2 ± (8.4)%. Rint was significantly lower (95%CI -2.31 to -0.38; P = 0.007) and CV significantly higher (95%CI 4.53-14.3; P < 0.001) in term compared to preterm infants. There were no differences in mean Rint and mean CV between the first and the second measurement obtained in a subgroup of term (n = 24, 48%) and preterm (n = 22, 45%) infants. Our results suggest that differences in airway mechanics between term and preterm infants can be assessed with the interrupter technique during early infancy. Before clinical application of Rint measurements in this age group, reasons underlying the variability of measurements should be further investigated. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Heart rate variability in conscious neonatal swine: spectral features and responses to short-term intermittent hypoxia

    PubMed Central

    Sica, Anthony L; Zhao, Ning

    2006-01-01

    Background Spectral analysis of the cardiac time series has been used as a tool for assessing levels of parasympathetic and sympathetic modulation of the sinoatrial node. In the present investigation we evaluated daily changes in heart rate variability spectra in conscious neonatal piglets that were either neurally intact (n = 5) or had undergone right stellate ganglionectomy (n = 5). The partial stellectomized animals and their intact litter mates were exposed to four days of intermittent hypoxia, each day comprising nine episodes of hypoxia alternating with nine episodes of normoxia. A time control group (n = 7) comprised animals from different litters that were not exposed to intermittent hypoxia. We hypothesized that exposure to intermittent hypoxia would increase sympathetic efferent neuronal modulation of heart rate variability spectra in neurally intact animals and in those with right stellate ganglionectomy, and that his effect would be observed in heart rate variability spectra computed from baseline recordings. Results Overall, heart rate variability spectra during baseline conditions were dominated by high frequency activity, a reflection of parasympathetic efferent neuronal innervation and linkage to the ventilatory cycle manifested as respiratory sinus arrhythmia. Exposure to intermittent hypoxia did not alter daily baseline spectral features that would indicate an increase of sympathetic cardiac activity: low frequency (0.05 – 0.15 Hz) activity was unaffected and the ratio of low- to -high frequency activity remained less than unity indicating a predominance of high frequency activity. The resultant spectra were remarkably similar despite differences in cardiac sympathetic efferent neuronal innervation and experimental treatment. When spectra were computed from cardiac time series during representative hypoxic episodes, significant increases in activity across the low frequency region (0.05 – 0.15 Hz) of heart rate variability spectra were noted

  6. Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of

  7. Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in a Population-Based Sample of 10-Year-Old Children

    PubMed Central

    Jarrin, Denise C.; Poirier, Paul; Séguin, Louise; Tremblay, Richard E.; Montplaisir, Jacques Y.; Paradis, Gilles; Séguin, Jean R.

    2014-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is a non-invasive quantitative marker of cardiac autonomic function derived from continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings. Normative HRV values and development factors have not been established in pediatric populations. The objective was to derive referent time- and frequency-domain HRV values for a population-based sample of children. Children aged 9–11 years (N = 1,036) participated in the Québec Longitudinal Study of Child Development cohort cardiovascular health screening. Registered nurses measured anthropometrics (height, weight) and children wore an ambulatory Holter monitor to continuously record an ECG signal. HRV variables included time (SDNN, pNN50, RMSSD, SDANN) and frequency (HF, LF, LF/HF ratio) domain variables. Normative HRV values, stratified by age, sex, and heart rate, are presented. Greater heart rate (βavg = −0.60, Ravg2=0.39), pubertal maturation (βavg = −0.11, Ravg2=0.01), later ECG recording times (βavg = −0.19, Ravg2=0.07), and higher diastolic blood pressure (βavg = −0.11, Ravg2=0.01) were significantly associated with reduced HRV in 10-year-old children. The normative HRV values permit clinicians to monitor, describe, and establish pediatric nosologies in primary care and research settings, which may improve treatment of diseases associated with HRV in children. By better understanding existing values, the practical applicability of HRV among clinicians will be enhanced. Lastly, developmental (e.g., puberty) and procedural (e.g., recording time) factors were identified that will improve recording procedures and interpretation of results. PMID:25056158

  8. Short-term effects of espresso coffee on heart rate variability and blood pressure in habitual and non-habitual coffee consumers--a randomized crossover study.

    PubMed

    Zimmermann-Viehoff, Frank; Thayer, Julian; Koenig, Julian; Herrmann, Christian; Weber, Cora S; Deter, Hans-Christian

    2016-05-01

    Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages worldwide. Aim of this study was to investigate short-term effects of espresso coffee on heart rate variability (HRV), a marker of vagal activity, in healthy habitual and non-habitual coffee consumers. Seventy-seven healthy subjects (38 habitual and 39 non-habitual coffee consumers, 74% women, mean age 26.97 ± 6.88 years) took part in three laboratory sessions in a randomized order. In condition 1, subjects consumed espresso; in condition 2, subjects consumed decaffeinated espresso; and in condition 3, subjects consumed warm water. HRV and blood pressure were assessed at rest before and after ingestion of the respective beverage. HRV was significantly increased after consumption of caffeinated espresso, decaffeinated espresso, or water, indicating increased vagal activity in the course of the experiments. In the habitual coffee consumers, the increase in vagally mediated HRV was significantly lower after consumption of decaffeinated espresso compared to caffeinated espresso. Increases of systolic blood pressure were only found in the non-habitual consumers. We found no evidence for specific short-term effects of caffeinated espresso on vagal activity in healthy subjects. Instead, consumption of decaffeinated espresso inhibited vagal activity in habitual consumers. This may be explained by an attempt of the organism to establish a sympathovagal equilibrium comparable to that after caffeine consumption. In the absence of caffeine-induced sympathetic activation, this may have been achieved by relative vagal withdrawal.

  9. The effect of short-term intermittent hypoxic exposure on heart rate variability in a sedentary population.

    PubMed

    Lizamore, C A; Kathiravel, Y; Elliott, J; Hellemans, J; Hamlin, M J

    2016-03-01

    While the effects of instantaneous, single-bout exposure to hypoxia have been well researched, little is known about the autonomic response during, or as an adaptation to, repeated intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE) in a sedentary population. Resting heart rate variability (HRV) and exercise capacity was assessed in 16 participants (8 receiving IHE, [Hyp] and 8 receiving a placebo treatment [C]) before and after a 4-week IHE intervention. Heart rate variability was also measured during an IHE session in the last week of the intervention. Post-intervention, the root mean squared successive difference (rMSSD) increased substantially in Hyp (71.6 ± 52.5%, mean change ± 90% confidence limits) compared to C suggesting an increase in vagal outflow. However, aside from a likely decrease in submaximal exercise heart rate in the Hyp group (-5.0 ± 6.4%) there was little evidence of improved exercise capacity. During the week 4 IHE measurement, HRV decreased during the hypoxic exposure (reduced R-R interval: -7.5 ± 3.2%; and rMSSD: -24.7 ± 17.3%) suggesting a decrease in the relative contribution of vagal activity. In summary, while 4 weeks of IHE is unlikely to improve maximal exercise capacity, it may be a useful means of increasing HRV in people unable to exercise.

  10. Short-term under-ice variability of prokaryotic plankton communities in coastal Antarctic waters (Cape Hallett, Ross Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Celussi, Mauro; Paoli, Alessandro; Crevatin, Erica; Bergamasco, Andrea; Margiotta, Francesca; Saggiomo, Vincenzo; Umani, Serena Fonda; Del Negro, Paola

    2009-03-01

    During the 2006 Italian Antarctic expedition a diel sampling was performed close to Cape Hallett (Ross Sea) during the Austral summer. Under-ice seawater samples (˜4 m) were collected every 2 h for 28 h in order to estimate prokaryotic processes' variability and community structure dynamics. Prokaryotic and viral abundances, exoenzymatic activities (β-glucosidase, chitinase, lipase, alkaline phosphatase and leucine aminopeptidase), prokaryotic carbon production ( 3H-leucine incorporation) and community structure (Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis - DGGE fingerprints) were analysed. Results showed that the diel variability of the prokaryotic activity followed a variation in salinity, probably as a consequence of the periodical thawing of sea ice (driven by solar radiation and air temperature cycles), while negligible variation in viral and prokaryotic abundances occurred. The Bacterial and Archaeal community structures underwent an Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) temporal shift from the beginning to the end of the sampling, while Flavobacteria-specific primers highlighted high variations in this group possibly related to sea ice melting and substrate release.

  11. Short-term Variability of X-Rays from Accreting Neutron Star Vela X-1. I. Suzaku Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odaka, Hirokazu; Khangulyan, Dmitry; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Watanabe, Shin; Takahashi, Tadayuki; Makishima, Kazuo

    2013-04-01

    We have analyzed the time variability of the wide-band X-ray spectrum of Vela X-1, the brightest wind-fed accreting neutron star, on a short timescale of 2 ks by using Suzaku observations with an exposure of 100 ks. During the observation, the object showed strong variability, including several flares and so-called "low states," in which the X-ray luminosity decreases by an order of magnitude. Although the spectral hardness increases with the X-ray luminosity, the majority of the recorded flares do not show any significant changes in circumstellar absorption. However, a sign of heavy absorption was registered immediately before one short flare that showed a significant spectral hardening. In the low states, the flux level is modulated with the pulsar spin period, indicating that even at this state the accretion flow reaches the close proximity of the neutron star. Phenomenologically, the broadband X-ray spectra, which are integrated over the entire spin phase, are well represented by the "NPEX" function (a combination of negative and positive power laws with an exponential cutoff by a common folding energy) with a cyclotron resonance scattering feature at 50 keV. Fitting of the data allowed us to infer a correlation between the photon index and X-ray luminosity. Finally, the circumstellar absorption shows a gradual increase in the orbital phase interval 0.25-0.3, which can be interpreted as an impact of a bow shock imposed by the motion of the compact object in the supersonic stellar wind.

  12. SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY OF X-RAYS FROM ACCRETING NEUTRON STAR VELA X-1. I. SUZAKU OBSERVATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Odaka, Hirokazu; Khangulyan, Dmitry; Watanabe, Shin; Takahashi, Tadayuki; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Makishima, Kazuo

    2013-04-10

    We have analyzed the time variability of the wide-band X-ray spectrum of Vela X-1, the brightest wind-fed accreting neutron star, on a short timescale of 2 ks by using Suzaku observations with an exposure of 100 ks. During the observation, the object showed strong variability, including several flares and so-called 'low states', in which the X-ray luminosity decreases by an order of magnitude. Although the spectral hardness increases with the X-ray luminosity, the majority of the recorded flares do not show any significant changes in circumstellar absorption. However, a sign of heavy absorption was registered immediately before one short flare that showed a significant spectral hardening. In the low states, the flux level is modulated with the pulsar spin period, indicating that even at this state the accretion flow reaches the close proximity of the neutron star. Phenomenologically, the broadband X-ray spectra, which are integrated over the entire spin phase, are well represented by the 'NPEX' function (a combination of negative and positive power laws with an exponential cutoff by a common folding energy) with a cyclotron resonance scattering feature at 50 keV. Fitting of the data allowed us to infer a correlation between the photon index and X-ray luminosity. Finally, the circumstellar absorption shows a gradual increase in the orbital phase interval 0.25-0.3, which can be interpreted as an impact of a bow shock imposed by the motion of the compact object in the supersonic stellar wind.

  13. Short-term variability and mass loss in Be stars. I. BRITE satellite photometry of η and μ Centauri

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baade, D.; Rivinius, Th.; Pigulski, A.; Carciofi, A. C.; Martayan, Ch.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Wade, G. A.; Weiss, W. W.; Grunhut, J.; Handler, G.; Kuschnig, R.; Mehner, A.; Pablo, H.; Popowicz, A.; Rucinski, S.; Whittaker, G.

    2016-04-01

    Context. Empirical evidence for the involvement of nonradial pulsations (NRPs) in the mass loss from Be stars ranges from (i) a singular case (μ Cen) of repetitive mass ejections triggered by multi-mode beating to (ii) several photometric reports about enormous numbers of pulsation modes that suddenly appear during outbursts and on to (iii) effective single-mode pulsators. Aims: The purpose of this study is to develop a more detailed empirical description of the star-to-disk mass transfer and to check the hypothesis that spates of transient nonradial pulsation modes accompany and even drive mass-loss episodes. Methods: The BRITE Constellation of nanosatellites was used to obtain mmag photometry of the Be stars η and μ Cen. Results: In the low-inclination star μ Cen, light pollution by variable amounts of near-stellar matter prevented any new insights into the variability and other properties of the central star. In the equator-on star η Cen, BRITE photometry and Heros echelle spectroscopy from the 1990s reveal an intricate clockwork of star-disk interactions. The mass transfer is modulated with the frequency difference of two NRP modes and an amplitude three times as large as the amplitude sum of the two NRP modes. This process feeds a high-amplitude circumstellar activity running with the incoherent and slightly lower so-called Štefl frequency. The mass-loss-modulation cycles are tightly coupled to variations in the value of the Štefl frequency and in its amplitude, albeit with strongly drifting phase differences. Conclusions: The observations are well described by the decomposition of the mass loss into a pulsation-related engine in the star and a viscosity-dominated engine in the circumstellar disk. Arguments are developed that large-scale gas-circulation flows occur at the interface. The propagation rates of these eddies manifest themselves as Štefl frequencies. Bursts in power spectra during mass-loss events can be understood as the noise inherent to

  14. The Risk Analysis of Long-term and Short-term Water Supply Considering Climate Change in Shihmen Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, C.; Chang, L.; Chen, Y.; Ho, C.

    2011-12-01

    A result of climate change is that more frequent extreme hydrological events occur, such as drought and flood events. Drought events induce water deficits and flood events induce high turbidity of water. Both water deficit and high turbidity cause insufficient water supply. In the past, water shortages caused by droughts or turbidity events are discussed separately. However, for a long-term water supply study, they should be simultaneously considered. This study develop a Monte Carlo Simulation approach to analyze water deficit problem considering simultaneously both the drought and flood situations. The proposed approach is applied to a real case study of Shihmen Reservoir. The results show that the shortage risk at Southern Taoyuan area is 91.91 % , Northern Taoyuan area is 99.03%, and at Banciao and Sinjhuang area is 4.65% under current water supply system. If the Banshin Water Treatment plant is expended and a Zhongzhuang regulating pond is added into the system, the shortage risk will be reduced to 17.74%, 1.00%, and 4.65% respectively. The results indicate that the water treatment expansion and the new regulating pond can dramatically improve the water supply reliability.

  15. Can short-term heart rate variability be used to monitor fentanyl-midazolam induced changes in ANS preceding respiratory depression?

    PubMed

    Smith, Anne-Louise; Owen, Harry; Reynolds, Karen J

    2015-06-01

    Opioids have an occasional but high-risk side effect of respiratory depression. The detection of critical respiratory depression usually occurs after the event. Earlier detection would be beneficial in preventing increased morbidity and mortality of 0.01 % patients receiving analgesic opioids. Airway patency during inspiration requires vagal modulation. Regulation of the cardiovascular and respiratory centres may be coupled with a central mechanism that is indirectly measurable with heart rate variability (HRV). While opioids tend to increase parasympathetic tone, a decrease in airway stability could be due to a decrease in respiratory parasympathetic activity. Sympathetic arousal generated by apneic events may separately be recognised with short-term HRV. This pilot observational study examined the dynamic sympathovagal changes during fentanyl-midazolam induced respiratory depression on 10 subjects scheduled for minor surgery. A selection of HRV indices, able to work over sub-minute periods on non-stationary signals, were applied including a range of less common indices. Three analyses tested the effects: post-fentanyl, preceding the first central depression, and preceding obstruction of the upper airway. Statistical significance was assessed with overlap of bootstrap percentile confidence intervals for the median. A decrease in total variability, Lomb Total using the Lomb-Scargle method, is a positive finding for short-term HRV use in this study. No significant change before critical respiratory events was observed in traditional, spectral power, respiratory or other indices. One index, PolVar20, indicated a burst of sympathetic activity preceding respiratory depression similar to sleep apnoea arousals that restore airway patency. Before its usefulness in early detection of airway tone can be determined, PolVar20 requires further work: a statistical method for highly skewed distributions, auto adjustment for baseline variability, and detecting a range of

  16. Short-term pulse rate variability is better characterized by functional near-infrared spectroscopy than by photoplethysmography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holper, Lisa; Seifritz, Erich; Scholkmann, Felix

    2016-09-01

    Pulse rate variability (PRV) can be extracted from functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) (PRVNIRS) and photoplethysmography (PPG) (PRVPPG) signals. The present study compared the accuracy of simultaneously acquired PRVNIRS and PRVPPG, and evaluated their different characterizations of the sympathetic (SNS) and parasympathetic (PSNS) autonomous nervous system activity. Ten healthy subjects were recorded during resting-state (RS) and respiratory challenges in two temperature conditions, i.e., room temperature (23°C) and cold temperature (4°C). PRVNIRS was recorded based on fNIRS measurement on the head, whereas PRVPPG was determined based on PPG measured at the finger. Accuracy between PRVNIRS and PRVPPG, as assessed by cross-covariance and cross-sample entropy, demonstrated a high degree of correlation (r>0.9), which was significantly reduced by respiration and cold temperature. Characterization of SNS and PSNS using frequency-domain, time-domain, and nonlinear methods showed that PRVNIRS provided significantly better information on increasing PSNS activity in response to respiration and cold temperature than PRVPPG. The findings show that PRVNIRS may outperform PRVPPG under conditions in which respiration and temperature changes are present, and may, therefore, be advantageous in research and clinical settings, especially if characterization of the autonomous nervous system is desired.

  17. Short-term pulse rate variability is better characterized by functional near-infrared spectroscopy than by photoplethysmography.

    PubMed

    Holper, Lisa; Seifritz, Erich; Scholkmann, Felix

    2016-09-01

    Pulse rate variability (PRV) can be extracted from functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) (PRV(NIRS)) and photoplethysmography (PPG) (PRV(PPG)) signals. The present study compared the accuracy of simultaneously acquired PRV(NIRS) and PRV(PPG), and evaluated their different characterizations of the sympathetic (SNS) and parasympathetic (PSNS) autonomous nervous system activity. Ten healthy subjects were recorded during resting-state (RS) and respiratory challenges in two temperature conditions, i.e., room temperature (23°C) and cold temperature (4°C). PRV(NIRS) was recorded based on fNIRS measurement on the head, whereas PRV(PPG) was determined based on PPG measured at the finger. Accuracy between PRV(NIRS) and PRV(PPG), as assessed by cross-covariance and cross-sample entropy, demonstrated a high degree of correlation (r > 0.9), which was significantly reduced by respiration and cold temperature. Characterization of SNS and PSNS using frequency-domain, time-domain, and nonlinear methods showed that PRV(NIRS) provided significantly better information on increasing PSNS activity in response to respiration and cold temperature than PRV(PPG). The findings show that PRV(NIRS) may outperform PRV(PPG) under conditions in which respiration and temperature changes are present, and may, therefore, be advantageous in research and clinical settings, especially if characterization of the autonomous nervous system is desired.

  18. Short term temporal variability in the photochemically mediated alteration of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in rainwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kieber, Robert J.; Adams, Mary Beth; Willey, Joan D.; Whitehead, Robert F.; Avery, G. Brooks; Mullaugh, Katherine M.; Mead, Ralph N.

    2012-04-01

    The goal of the research presented here was to determine the impact of photochemistry on the abundance and spectral qualities of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in precipitation. The relationship between sunlight and CDOM in rainwater was complex with both production and photobleaching of optical properties occurring simultaneously in different regions of the fluorescence excitation emission spectra (EEMs) over relatively short time scales. Spectral slope was inversely correlated with the observed changes in total integrated fluorescence suggesting that photo-induced modifications in the molecular weight of CDOM were occurring along with fluctuations in its optical properties. Atmospheric condensate collected near a high traffic roadway had a response to sunlight similar to authentic rainwater suggesting some fraction of the CDOM in atmospheric waters is derived from local anthropogenic gas phase sources. There was a dramatic increase in fluorescence in two samples photolyzed with photosynthetically active radiation only (PAR; 400-700 nm) compared to analogous samples exposed to full spectrum sunlight indicating that this less energetic light is capable of producing photochemically labile compounds in rainwater. The observed temporal variability in the molecular level response of CDOM to sunlight is important because it may alter the spectral attenuation and the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface.

  19. Short-term temporal and spatial variability of soil hydrophobicity in an abandoned agriculture field in Lithuania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Burguet, Maria; Cerdà, Artemi

    2013-04-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) is a natural property of soils. Among other factors, SWR depends on soil moisture, mineralogy, texture, pH, organic matter, aggregate stability, fungal and microbiological activity and plant cover. It has implications on plant growth, superficial and subsurface hydrology and soil erosion. It is well known that SWR is temporarily, increasing when soils are dry and decreasing when moist. In agriculture, soil micro-topography is very heterogeneous with implications on surface water distribution and wettability. Normally, SWR studies are focused on large interval time (e.g, monthly or seasonally). The objective of this work is the study of SWR in a temporal scale and its variability in an abandoned agriculture field in Lithuania. An experimental plot with 21 m2 (07x03 m) was designed in a flat area. Inside this plot SWR was measured in the field, placing three droplets of water on the soil surface and counting the time that takes to infiltrate. A total of 105 sampling points were measured per sampling period. Soil water repellency was measured after a period of 14 days without rainfall and in the seven consequent weeks (one measurement per week between 28th May and 07th of July 2012). The results showed that in this small plot, SWR was observed in the first (May 28), third and fourth measurements (08th of June and 16th). It was observed an increasing of the percentage of hydrophobic points (Water Drop Penetration Test ≥5 seconds) between the first and the fourth measurement, decreasing thereafter. Significant differences of SWR were observed among all periods (F=78.32, p<0.0001). The coefficient of variation (CV%) changed strikingly, 361.10 % (8th of May), 151.78 % (01st of June), 83.77% (08th of June), 125.87% (16th of June), 0.45 (22nd of June), 121%(31st of June) and 67.13% (7th of July). The correlation between the mean SWR and the CV% is 0.75, p<0.05. The changes were attributed to different soil moisture conditions. The differences

  20. Short-Term Chromospheric Variability in alpha Tauri (K5 III): Results from IUE Time Series Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cuntz, Manfred; Deeney, Bryan D.; Brown, Alexander; Stencel, Robert E.

    1996-01-01

    We evaluate time series observations of chromospheric lines (Mg II, Mg I, and C II) for the K giant alpha Tau obtained using the IUE LWP camera at high dispersion. These observations cover a time span of about 2 weeks in 1994 February-March and were designed to resolve variations occurring within hours, days, and weeks. We consider the observational results in relation to theoretical acoustic heating models, motivated by the fact that alpha Tau may exhibit a basal (i.e., minimum) level of chromospheric activity. The data reveal flux variations between the extremes of 8% in Mg II h+k and 15% in each emission component. These variations occur on timescales as short as 8 hr but not on timescales longer than approx.3 days. For the h and k components, flux variations occurring on a timescale as short as 1.5 hr are also found. These changes are often not correlated (and are sometimes even anticorrelated), leading to remarkable differences in the h/k ratios. We argue that these results are consistent with the presence of strong acoustic shocks, which can lead to variable Mg II line emission when only a small number of strong shocks are propagating through the atmosphere. We deduce the electron density in the C II lambda 2325 line formation region to be log(base e) of N. approx. equals 9.0, in agreement with previous studies. Our data provide evidence that the Mg II basal flux limit for K giants might be a factor of 4 higher than suggested by Rutten et al.

  1. Short-Term Exposure to Ozone Does Not Impair Vascular Function or Affect Heart Rate Variability in Healthy Young Men

    PubMed Central

    Barath, Stefan; Langrish, Jeremy P.; Blomberg, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Air pollution exposure is associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, yet the role of individual pollutants remains unclear. In particular, there is uncertainty regarding the acute effect of ozone exposure on cardiovascular disease. In these studies, we aimed to determine the effect of ozone exposure on vascular function, fibrinolysis, and the autonomic regulation of the heart. Thirty-six healthy men were exposed to ozone (300 ppb) and filtered air for 75min on two occasions in randomized double-blind crossover studies. Bilateral forearm blood flow (FBF) was measured using forearm venous occlusion plethysmography before and during intra-arterial infusions of vasodilators 2–4 and 6–8h after each exposure. Heart rhythm and heart rate variability (HRV) were monitored during and 24h after exposure. Compared with filtered air, ozone exposure did not alter heart rate, blood pressure, or resting FBF at either 2 or 6h. There was a dose-dependent increase in FBF with all vasodilators that was similar after both exposures at 2–4h. Ozone exposure did not impair vasomotor or fibrinolytic function at 6–8h but rather increased vasodilatation to acetylcholine (p = .015) and sodium nitroprusside (p = .005). Ozone did not affect measures of HRV during or after the exposure. Our findings do not support a direct rapid effect of ozone on vascular function or cardiac autonomic control although we cannot exclude an effect of chronic exposure or an interaction between ozone and alternative air pollutants that may be responsible for the adverse cardiovascular health effects attributed to ozone. PMID:23872581

  2. Short-term exposure to ozone does not impair vascular function or affect heart rate variability in healthy young men.

    PubMed

    Barath, Stefan; Langrish, Jeremy P; Lundbäck, Magnus; Bosson, Jenny A; Goudie, Colin; Newby, David E; Sandström, Thomas; Mills, Nicholas L; Blomberg, Anders

    2013-10-01

    Air pollution exposure is associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, yet the role of individual pollutants remains unclear. In particular, there is uncertainty regarding the acute effect of ozone exposure on cardiovascular disease. In these studies, we aimed to determine the effect of ozone exposure on vascular function, fibrinolysis, and the autonomic regulation of the heart. Thirty-six healthy men were exposed to ozone (300 ppb) and filtered air for 75min on two occasions in randomized double-blind crossover studies. Bilateral forearm blood flow (FBF) was measured using forearm venous occlusion plethysmography before and during intra-arterial infusions of vasodilators 2-4 and 6-8h after each exposure. Heart rhythm and heart rate variability (HRV) were monitored during and 24h after exposure. Compared with filtered air, ozone exposure did not alter heart rate, blood pressure, or resting FBF at either 2 or 6h. There was a dose-dependent increase in FBF with all vasodilators that was similar after both exposures at 2-4h. Ozone exposure did not impair vasomotor or fibrinolytic function at 6-8h but rather increased vasodilatation to acetylcholine (p = .015) and sodium nitroprusside (p = .005). Ozone did not affect measures of HRV during or after the exposure. Our findings do not support a direct rapid effect of ozone on vascular function or cardiac autonomic control although we cannot exclude an effect of chronic exposure or an interaction between ozone and alternative air pollutants that may be responsible for the adverse cardiovascular health effects attributed to ozone.

  3. Short-term sandbar variability based on video imagery: Comparison between Time-Average and Time-Variance techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guedes, R.M.C.; Calliari, L.J.; Holland, K.T.; Plant, N.G.; Pereira, P.S.; Alves, F.N.A.

    2011-01-01

    Time-exposure intensity (averaged) images are commonly used to locate the nearshore sandbar position (xb), based on the cross-shore locations of maximum pixel intensity (xi) of the bright bands in the images. It is not known, however, how the breaking patterns seen in Variance images (i.e. those created through standard deviation of pixel intensity over time) are related to the sandbar locations. We investigated the suitability of both Time-exposure and Variance images for sandbar detection within a multiple bar system on the southern coast of Brazil, and verified the relation between wave breaking patterns, observed as bands of high intensity in these images and cross-shore profiles of modeled wave energy dissipation (xD). Not only is Time-exposure maximum pixel intensity location (xi-Ti) well related to xb, but also to the maximum pixel intensity location of Variance images (xi-Va), although the latter was typically located 15m offshore of the former. In addition, xi-Va was observed to be better associated with xD even though xi-Ti is commonly assumed as maximum wave energy dissipation. Significant wave height (Hs) and water level (??) were observed to affect the two types of images in a similar way, with an increase in both Hs and ?? resulting in xi shifting offshore. This ??-induced xi variability has an opposite behavior to what is described in the literature, and is likely an indirect effect of higher waves breaking farther offshore during periods of storm surges. Multiple regression models performed on xi, Hs and ?? allowed the reduction of the residual errors between xb and xi, yielding accurate estimates with most residuals less than 10m. Additionally, it was found that the sandbar position was best estimated using xi-Ti (xi-Va) when xb was located shoreward (seaward) of its mean position, for both the first and the second bar. Although it is unknown whether this is an indirect hydrodynamic effect or is indeed related to the morphology, we found that this

  4. Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Tsurutani, Bruce; Yan, Yihua

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES-II period on the short-term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near-Earth space environment. CAWSES-II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar-terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short-term variability that has immediate consequence to Earth and geospace manifests as solar eruptions from closed-field regions and high-speed streams from coronal holes. Both electromagnetic (flares) and mass emissions (coronal mass ejections - CMEs) are involved in solar eruptions, while coronal holes result in high-speed streams that collide with slow wind forming the so-called corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs affect Earth via leading shocks accelerating energetic particles and creating large geomagnetic storms. CIRs and their trailing high-speed streams (HSSs), on the other hand, are responsible for recurrent small geomagnetic storms and extended days of auroral zone activity, respectively. The latter leads to the acceleration of relativistic magnetospheric `killer' electrons. One of the major consequences of the weak solar activity is the altered physical state of the heliosphere that has serious implications for the shock-driving and storm-causing properties of CMEs. Finally, a discussion is presented on extreme space weather events prompted by the 23 July 2012 super storm event that occurred on the backside of the Sun. Many of these studies were enabled by the simultaneous availability of remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points with respect to the Sun-Earth line.

  5. Effects of long- and short-term management on the functional structure of meadows through species turnover and intraspecific trait variability.

    PubMed

    Volf, Martin; Redmond, Conor; Albert, Ágnes J; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Biella, Paolo; Götzenberger, Lars; Hrázský, Záboj; Janeček, Štěpán; Klimešová, Jitka; Lepš, Jan; Šebelíková, Lenka; Vlasatá, Tereza; de Bello, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The functional structures of communities respond to environmental changes by both species replacement (turnover) and within-species variation (intraspecific trait variability; ITV). Evidence is lacking on the relative importance of these two components, particularly in response to both short- and long-term environmental disturbance. We hypothesized that such short- and long-term perturbations would induce changes in community functional structure primarily via ITV and turnover, respectively. To test this we applied an experimental design across long-term mown and abandoned meadows, with each plot containing a further level of short-term management treatments: mowing, grazing and abandonment. Within each plot, species composition and trait values [height, shoot biomass, and specific leaf area (SLA)] were recorded on up to five individuals per species. Positive covariations between the contribution of species turnover and ITV occurred for height and shoot biomass in response to both short- and long-term management, indicating that species turnover and intraspecific adjustments selected for similar trait values. Positive covariations also occurred for SLA, but only in response to long-term management. The contributions of turnover and ITV changed depending on both the trait and management trajectory. As expected, communities responded to short-term disturbances mostly through changes in intraspecific trait variability, particularly for height and biomass. Interestingly, for SLA they responded to long-term disturbances by both species turnover and intraspecific adjustments. These findings highlight the importance of both ITV and species turnover in adjusting grassland functional trait response to environmental perturbation, and show that the response is trait specific and affected by disturbance regime history.

  6. Climate Variability Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David (Editor)

    2002-01-01

    The Annual Report of the Climate Variability Program briefly describes research activities of Principal Investigators who are funded by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Division. The report is focused on the year 2001. Utilization of satellite observations is a singularity of research on climate science and technology at JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory). Research at JPL has two foci: generate new knowledge and develop new technology.

  7. Climate-induced variations in lake levels: A mechanism for short-term sea level change during non-glacial times

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobs, D. ); Sahagian, D. . Dept of Geological Sciences)

    1992-01-01

    Variations in insolation due to periodic orbital parameters can cause climatic changes and associated variations in the intensity of monsoonal circulation. This can lead to significant variations in the levels of internally draining lakes on timescales of 10,000 to 100,000 years in regions affected by the monsoon (20,000 years for orbital precession). These variations may be responsible for small scale (few meters) eustatic sea level changes in an ice-free Earth, and may contribute to sea level changes in the presence of ice as well. The authors have estimated the volume of empty present lake basins in the regions of Asia and North Africa influenced by the monsoon. The surface water volume alone of these basins is equivalent to a two meter difference in sea level, but is considerably augmented by groundwater associated with an increase in lake level. The lake variation mechanism for sea level change has its basis in the Quaternary record of climate change and associated explanatory models. However, the argument also applies to earlier, non-glacial periods of geologic time. Clear evidence for the presence of ice in the Triassic is lacking. However, there is evidence for short-term periodic fluctuations of lake levels as well as sea level during that time. These sea level changes, as well as those in the Devonian, Jurassic, and Cretaceous, may be driven by periodic fluctuation in lacustrine and groundwater storage resulting from orbitally forced changes in monsoon intensity, even in the absence of significant glacial ice.

  8. Validity and Usefulness of `Wearable Blood Pressure Sensing' for Detection of Inappropriate Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability in the Elderly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iijima, Katsuya; Kameyama, Yumi; Akishita, Masahiro; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Yanagimoto, Shintaro; Imai, Yasushi; Yahagi, Naoki; Lopez, Guillaume; Shuzo, Masaki; Yamada, Ichiro

    An increase in short-term blood pressure (BP) variability is a characteristic feature in the elderly. It makes the management of hemodynamics more difficult, because it is frequently seen disturbed baro-reflex function and increased arterial stiffness, leading to isolated systolic hypertension. Large BP variability aggravates hypertensive target organ damage and is an independent risk factor for the cardiovascular (CV) events in elderly hypertensive patients. Therefore, appropriate control in BP is indispensable to manage lifestyle-related diseases and to prevent subsequent CV events. In addition, accumulating recent reports show that excessive BP variability is also associated with a decline in cognitive function and fall in the elderly. In the clinical settings, we usually evaluate their health condition, mainly with single point BP measurement using cuff inflation. However, unfortunately we are not able to find the close changes in BP by the traditional way. Here, we can show our advantageous approach of continuous BP monitoring using newly developing device `wearable BP sensing' without a cuff stress in the elderly. The new device could reflect systolic BP and its detailed changes, in consistent with cuff-based BP measurement. Our new challenge suggests new possibility of its clinical application with high accuracy.

  9. Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oremus, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.

  10. Current Climate Variability & Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  11. Short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral zone fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pierce, C.L.; Sexton, M.D.; Pelham, M.E.; Larscheid, J.G.

    2001-01-01

    We assessed short-term variability and long-term change in the composition of the littoral fish community in Spirit Lake, Iowa. Fish were sampled in several locations at night with large beach seines during spring, summer and fall of 1995-1998. Long-term changes were inferred from comparison with a similar study conducted over 70 y earlier in Spirit Lake. We found 26 species in the littoral zone. The number of species per sample ranged from 4 to 18, averaging 11.8. The average number of species per sample was higher at stations with greater vegetation density. A distinct seasonal pattern was evident in the number of species collected per sample in most years, increasing steadily from spring to fall. Patterns of variability within our 1995-1998 study period suggest that: (1) numerous samples are necessary to adequately characterize a littoral fish community, (2) sampling should be done when vegetation and young-of-year densities are highest and (3) sampling during a single year is inadequate to reveal the full community. The number of native species has declined by approximately 25% over the last 70 y. A coincident decline in littoral vegetation and associated habitat changes during the same period are likely causes of the long-term community change.

  12. Short-term radio variability and parsec-scale structure in A gamma-ray narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 0323+342

    SciTech Connect

    Wajima, Kiyoaki; Fujisawa, Kenta; Hayashida, Masaaki; Isobe, Naoki; Ishida, Takafumi; Yonekura, Yoshinori

    2014-02-01

    We made simultaneous single-dish and very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) observations of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 323+342, showing gamma-ray activity revealed by Fermi/Large Area Telescope observations. We found significant variation of the total flux density at 8 GHz on the timescale of one month by the single-dish monitoring. The total flux density varied by 5.5% in 32 days, which is comparable to the gamma-ray variability timescale, corresponding to the variability brightness temperature of 7.0 × 10{sup 11} K. The source consists of central and southeastern components on the parsec (pc) scale. Only the flux of the central component decreased in the same way as the total flux density, indicating that the short-term radio variability, and probably the gamma-ray-emitting region, is associated with this component. From the VLBI observations, we obtained brightness temperatures of greater than (5.2 ± 0.3) × 10{sup 10} K and derived an equipartition Doppler factor of greater than 1.7, a variability Doppler factor of 2.2, and an 8 GHz radio power of 10{sup 24.6} W Hz{sup –1}. Combining them, we conclude that acceleration of radio jets and creation of high-energy particles are ongoing in the central engine and that the apparent very radio-loud feature of the source is due to the Doppler boosting effect, resulting in the intrinsic radio loudness being an order of magnitude smaller than the observed values. We also conclude that the pc-scale jet represents recurrent activity from the spectral fitting and the estimated kinematic age of pc- and kpc-scale extended components with different position angles.

  13. Short-term Radio Variability and Parsec-scale Structure in a Gamma-Ray Narrow-line Seyfert 1 Galaxy 1H 0323+342

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wajima, Kiyoaki; Fujisawa, Kenta; Hayashida, Masaaki; Isobe, Naoki; Ishida, Takafumi; Yonekura, Yoshinori

    2014-02-01

    We made simultaneous single-dish and very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) observations of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 323+342, showing gamma-ray activity revealed by Fermi/Large Area Telescope observations. We found significant variation of the total flux density at 8 GHz on the timescale of one month by the single-dish monitoring. The total flux density varied by 5.5% in 32 days, which is comparable to the gamma-ray variability timescale, corresponding to the variability brightness temperature of 7.0 × 1011 K. The source consists of central and southeastern components on the parsec (pc) scale. Only the flux of the central component decreased in the same way as the total flux density, indicating that the short-term radio variability, and probably the gamma-ray-emitting region, is associated with this component. From the VLBI observations, we obtained brightness temperatures of greater than (5.2 ± 0.3) × 1010 K and derived an equipartition Doppler factor of greater than 1.7, a variability Doppler factor of 2.2, and an 8 GHz radio power of 1024.6 W Hz-1. Combining them, we conclude that acceleration of radio jets and creation of high-energy particles are ongoing in the central engine and that the apparent very radio-loud feature of the source is due to the Doppler boosting effect, resulting in the intrinsic radio loudness being an order of magnitude smaller than the observed values. We also conclude that the pc-scale jet represents recurrent activity from the spectral fitting and the estimated kinematic age of pc- and kpc-scale extended components with different position angles.

  14. Short term spatio-temporal variability of soil water-extractable calcium and magnesium after a low severity grassland fire in Lithuania.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Paulo; Martin, David

    2014-05-01

    Fire has important impacts on soil nutrient spatio-temporal distribution (Outeiro et al., 2008). This impact depends on fire severity, topography of the burned area, type of soil and vegetation affected, and the meteorological conditions post-fire. Fire produces a complex mosaic of impacts in soil that can be extremely variable at small plot scale in the space and time. In order to assess and map such a heterogeneous distribution, the test of interpolation methods is fundamental to identify the best estimator and to have a better understanding of soil nutrients spatial distribution. The objective of this work is to identify the short-term spatial variability of water-extractable calcium and magnesium after a low severity grassland fire. The studied area is located near Vilnius (Lithuania) at 54° 42' N, 25° 08 E, 158 masl. Four days after the fire, it was designed in a burned area a plot with 400 m2 (20 x 20 m with 5 m space between sampling points). Twenty five samples from top soil (0-5 cm) were collected immediately after the fire (IAF), 2, 5, 7 and 9 months after the fire (a total of 125 in all sampling dates). The original data of water-extractable calcium and magnesium did not respected the Gaussian distribution, thus a neperian logarithm (ln) was applied in order to normalize data. Significant differences of water-extractable calcium and magnesium among sampling dates were carried out with the Anova One-way test using the ln data. In order to assess the spatial variability of water-extractable calcium and magnesium, we tested several interpolation methods as Ordinary Kriging (OK), Inverse Distance to a Weight (IDW) with the power of 1, 2, 3 and 4, Radial Basis Functions (RBF) - Inverse Multiquadratic (IMT), Multilog (MTG), Multiquadratic (MTQ) Natural Cubic Spline (NCS) and Thin Plate Spline (TPS) - and Local Polynomial (LP) with the power of 1 and 2. Interpolation tests were carried out with Ln data. The best interpolation method was assessed using the

  15. The impact of climatic and seismic events on the short-term evolution of seacliffs based on 3-D mapping: Northern Monterey Bay, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, C.; Richmond, B.

    2002-01-01

    Coastal cliff retreat along the central California coast is episodic, occurring in response to single large storms or seismic events. Traditional approaches to the study of long-term seacliff retreat utilize historical aerial photography and maps to delineate the landward migration of the top edge of the cliff over periods of tens of years to a century. While these methods yield cumulative retreat amounts, they provide little or no information on the character of the individual retreat events, nor the physical processes of retreat. This study addresses the processes of episodic and short-term coastal cliff retreat through the analysis of seacliff failure styles and retreat magnitudes. The study areas are three, 1-km-long sections of cliffed coast in northern Monterey Bay. The earliest data set is vertical aerial photography from October 18, 1989, taken the day following the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. More recent photography, collected in late January, early February and early March of 1998, captured seacliff failure in response to the severe storms associated with the 1997-1998 El Nin??o. For each data set, high-resolution digital photogrammetric techniques are used to identify the top edge of the cliff. At each cliff failure location, its position, failure length and character are documented. Results suggest that on a regional scale, the seacliffs respond to seismic and climatic forcing differently. We have found variation in the magnitude of cliff response along the three sections of coast in the study area. Large-scale climatic events such as the 1997-1998 El Nin??o have a greater impact on both the linear extent of seacliff failure and the amount of cliff retreat.

  16. Short-term fluctuations in vegetation and phytoplankton during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate: a 640-kyr record from the Messel oil shale (Germany)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter

    2011-11-01

    The Palaeogene was the most recent greenhouse period on Earth. Especially for the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene, several superimposed short-term hyperthermal events have been described, including extremes such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Major faunal and floral turnovers in the marine and terrestrial realms were recorded in association with these events. High-resolution palynological analysis of the early Middle Eocene maar lake sediments at Messel, near Darmstadt, Germany, provides an insight into the dynamics of a climax vegetation during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate in a time span without significant climatic excursions. Numerical techniques like detrended correspondence analysis and wavelet analysis have been applied to recognize cyclic fluctuations and long-term trends in the vegetation through a time interval of approximately 640 kyr. Based on the numerical zoning of the pollen diagram, three phases in the development of the vegetation may be distinguished. Throughout these phases, the climax vegetation did not change substantially in qualitative composition, but a trend towards noticeably less humid conditions probably in combination with a drop of the water level in the lake may be recognized. A shift in algal population from the freshwater dinoflagellate cyst Messelodinium thielepfeifferae to a dominance of Botryococcus in the uppermost part of the core is interpreted as a response to changes in acidity and nutrient availability within the lake. Time series analyses of pollen assemblages show that variations in the Milankovitch range of eccentricity, obliquity and precession can be distinguished. In addition, fluctuations in the sub-Milankovitch range are indicated. This demonstrates that floral changes during steady depositional conditions in the Middle Eocene of Messel were controlled by orbital forcing.

  17. Development of a Short-term Suction-cup Tagging Method for Small Delphinids to Understand the Effects of Climate, Ecosystem, and Anthropogenic Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pearson, H. C.; Srinivasan, M.

    2016-02-01

    Documented changes in regional abundance and distribution of marine mammals may be driven by climate, ecosystem, and human-induced variations, operating synergistically or individually on different time scales. However, long-term but fine-scale data on animal ranging and foraging patterns are needed to fully understand the mechanism and magnitude of such changes and if/how top predators such as marine mammals are adapting. This is particularly important for dolphins, for which non-invasive, longer duration tags are needed to track their daily and weekly movement patterns in concert with changes in prey. As part of an ongoing study on dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus) in Kaikoura, New Zealand, we are developing a short-term, non-invasive suction-cup tagging method for collecting high resolution data on dolphin foraging and ranging behavior. This is an advancement in the field of animal telemetry as few published studies have tested non-invasive suction-cup tagging methods on small (< 2 m) delphinids, and even fewer report successful deployments. During austral summer 2013-14 and austral winter 2014, we spent 149 h over 31 d searching for and observing dusky dolphins. Of 71 tagging attempts made, 49% (n = 35) were "sticks" (i.e., the tag adhered to the dolphin). The longest tag attachment time was 357 min. Dive depths tended to increase throughout the day, reaching maximum daytime dive depths of c.a. 25 m. This is consistent with dolphin behavior off Kaikoura, as individuals feed mainly at night on mesopelagic organisms. Most (92%, n = 46) dolphins exhibited low-level responses to tagging, indicating this to be an appropriate species on which to continue tagging efforts. Successful trials will facilitate application of the system to other small delphinids. Tagging data collected can be integrated with climate and oceanographic data derived from satellite sensors and other monitoring programs to produce a comprehensive picture of dolphin behavioral ecology.

  18. The impacts of short-term exposure to noise and traffic-related air pollution on heart rate variability in young healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jing; Deng, Furong; Wu, Shaowei; Lu, Henry; Hao, Yu; Guo, Xinbiao

    2013-01-01

    Traffic-related air pollution and noise are associated with cardiovascular diseases, and alternation of heart rate variability (HRV), which reflects cardiac autonomic function, is one of the mechanisms. However, few studies considered the impacts of noise when exploring associations between air pollution and HRV. We explored whether noise modifies associations between short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and HRV in young healthy adults. In this randomized, crossover study, 40 young healthy adults stayed for 2 h in a traffic center and, on a separate occasion, in a park. Personal exposure to traffic-related air pollutants and noise were measured and ambulatory electrocardiogram was performed. Effects were estimated using mixed-effects regression models. Traffic-related air pollution and noise were both associated with HRV, and effects of air pollutants were amplified at high noise level (>65.6 A-weighted decibels (dB[A])) compared with low noise level (≤ 65.6 dB[A]). High frequency (HF) decreased by -4.61% (95% confidence interval, -6.75% to-2.42%) per 10 μg/m(3) increment in fine particle (PM2.5) at 5-min moving average, but effects became insignificant at low noise level (P>0.05). Similar effects modification was observed for black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO). We conclude that noise is an important factor influencing the effects of air pollution on HRV.

  19. The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

  20. Solar Variability and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Joanna D.

    Solar radiation is the fundamental energy source for the atmosphere and the global average equilibrium temperature of the Earth is determined by a balance between the energy acquired by the solar radiation absorbed and the energy lost to space by the emission of heat radiation. The interaction of this radiation with the climate system is complex but it is clear that any change in total solar irradiance (TSI) has the potential to influence climate. In the past, although many papers were written on relationships between sunspot numbers and the weather, the topic of solar influences on climate was often disregarded by meteorologists. This was due to a combination of factors of which the key was the lack of any robust measurements indicating that solar radiation did indeed vary. There was also mistrust of the statistical validity of the evidence and, importantly, no established scientific mechanisms whereby the apparent changes in the Sun might induce detectable signals near the Earth's surface. Another influence was a desire by the meteorological profession to distance itself from the Astrometeorology movement popular in the 19th century (anderson1999). Nowadays, with improved measurements of solar and climate parameters, evidence for an influence of solar variability on the climate of the lower atmosphere has emerged from the noise. This article provides a brief review of the observational evidence and an outline of the mechanisms whereby rather small changes in solar radiation may induce detectable signals near the Earth's surface is not possible to review here all potential mechanisms for solar-climate links. What is presented offers, necessarily, a personal perspective but, of the areas that are not covered, two may be pertinent: the effects of solar energetic particles on stratospheric composition (see e.g. jackman et al. 2005) and the possible influence of galactic cosmic rays on clouds through ionisation processes (see Marsh, this volume).

  1. Short-term variability in QT interval and ventricular arrhythmias induced by dofetilide are dependent on high-frequency autonomic oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Champeroux, P; Thireau, J; Judé, S; Laigot-Barbé, C; Maurin, A; Sola, M L; Fowler, J S L; Richard, S; Le Guennec, J Y

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose The present study was undertaken to investigate an effect of dofetilide, a potent arrhythmic blocker of the voltage-gated K+ channel, hERG, on cardiac autonomic control. Combined with effects on ardiomyocytes, these properties could influence its arrhythmic potency. Experimental Approach The short-term variability of beat-to-beat QT interval (STVQT), induced by dofetilide is a strong surrogate of Torsades de pointes liability. Involvement of autonomic modulation in STVQT was investigated in healthy cynomolgus monkeys and beagle dogs by power spectral analysis under conditions of autonomic blockade with hexamethonium. Key Results Increase in STVQT induced by dofetilide in monkeys and dogs was closely associated with an enhancement of endogenous heart rate and QT interval high-frequency (HF) oscillations. These effects were fully suppressed under conditions of autonomic blockade with hexamethonium. Ventricular arrhythmias, including Torsades de pointes in monkeys, were prevented in both species when HF oscillations were suppressed by autonomic blockade. Similar enhancements of heart rate HF oscillations were found in dogs with other hERG blockers described as causing Torsades de pointes in humans. Conclusions and Implications These results demonstrate for the first time that beat-to-beat ventricular repolarization variability and ventricular arrhythmias induced by dofetilide are dependent on endogenous HF autonomic oscillations in heart rate. When combined with evidence of hERG-blocking properties, enhancement of endogenous HF oscillations in heart rate could constitute an earlier and more sensitive biomarker than STVQT for Torsades de pointes liability, applicable to preclinical regulatory studies conducted in healthy animals. PMID:25625756

  2. Circadian pattern of short-term variability of the QT-interval in primary prevention ICD patients - EU-CERT-ICD methodological pilot study.

    PubMed

    Sprenkeler, David J; Tuinenburg, Anton E; Ritsema van Eck, Henk J; Malik, Marek; Zabel, Markus; Vos, Marc A

    2017-01-01

    Short-term variability of the QT-interval (STV-QT) was shown to be associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias. We aimed at investigating (a) whether STV-QT exhibits circadian pattern, and (b) whether such pattern differs between patients with high and low arrhythmia risk. As part of the ongoing EU-CERT-ICD study, 24h high resolution digital ambulatory 12-lead Holter recordings are collected prior to ICD implantation for primary prophylactic indication. Presently available patients were categorized based on their arrhythmia score (AS), a custom-made weighted score of the number of arrhythmic events on the recording. STV-QT was calculated every hour in 30 patients of which 15 and 15 patients had a high and a low AS, respectively. The overall dynamicity of STV-QT showed high intra- and inter-individual variability with different circadian patterns associated with low and high AS. High AS patients showed a prominent peak both at 08:00 and 18:00. At these times, STV-QT was significantly higher in the high AS patients compared to the low AS patients (1.22ms±0.55ms vs 0.60ms±0.24ms at 08:00 and 1.12ms±0.39ms vs 0.64ms±0.29ms at 18:00, both p < 0.01). In patients with high AS, STV-QT peaks in the early morning and late afternoon. This potentially reflects increased arrhythmia risk at these times. Prospective STV-QT determination at these times might thus be more sensitive to identify patients at high risk of ventricular arrhythmias.

  3. Circadian pattern of short-term variability of the QT-interval in primary prevention ICD patients - EU-CERT-ICD methodological pilot study

    PubMed Central

    Tuinenburg, Anton E.; Ritsema van Eck, Henk J.; Malik, Marek; Zabel, Markus; Vos, Marc A.

    2017-01-01

    Objective Short-term variability of the QT-interval (STV-QT) was shown to be associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias. We aimed at investigating (a) whether STV-QT exhibits circadian pattern, and (b) whether such pattern differs between patients with high and low arrhythmia risk. Methods As part of the ongoing EU-CERT-ICD study, 24h high resolution digital ambulatory 12-lead Holter recordings are collected prior to ICD implantation for primary prophylactic indication. Presently available patients were categorized based on their arrhythmia score (AS), a custom-made weighted score of the number of arrhythmic events on the recording. STV-QT was calculated every hour in 30 patients of which 15 and 15 patients had a high and a low AS, respectively. Results The overall dynamicity of STV-QT showed high intra- and inter-individual variability with different circadian patterns associated with low and high AS. High AS patients showed a prominent peak both at 08:00 and 18:00. At these times, STV-QT was significantly higher in the high AS patients compared to the low AS patients (1.22ms±0.55ms vs 0.60ms±0.24ms at 08:00 and 1.12ms±0.39ms vs 0.64ms±0.29ms at 18:00, both p < 0.01). Conclusion In patients with high AS, STV-QT peaks in the early morning and late afternoon. This potentially reflects increased arrhythmia risk at these times. Prospective STV-QT determination at these times might thus be more sensitive to identify patients at high risk of ventricular arrhythmias. PMID:28827816

  4. Short-term heart rate variability response to head-up tilt in young syncope patients and controls with respect to age.

    PubMed

    Dickhaus, Hartmut; Maier, Christoph; Khalil, Markus; Ulmer, Herbert

    2006-01-01

    This study aims at characterizing the short-term time-courses of time- and frequency-domain heart rate variability (HRV) parameters during head-up tilt test (HUTT). Data from 44 young patients with a history of syncope and 34 age-matched controls was analysed in two age-groups related to puberty (< or =13 and > or =14 years), and separately for gender, by extracting minute-by-minute progression of mean RR-interval, standard deviation of RR-intervals (SDNN) and their first difference (SDSD) as well as low-frequency (LF, 0.05-0.15 Hz) energy, high-frequency (HF, 0.15-0.4 Hz) energy and the LF/HF-ratio. Time-courses were individually normalized and averaged after synchronization to the events of tilt and tilt-back/syncope. We observed remarkable age-related differences not only with respect to response to tilting but also regarding the differentiation of patients with positive HUTT from controls with negative HUTT. ROC-analysis in three regions of interest (0-2 min after tilt, 2-5 min after tilt, 5-2 min before tilt-back) revealed generally much weaker and less persistent differences in younger subjects whereas in elders the differences were clearer and often most pronounced immediately before syncope. For both age-groups, the relative change of mean RR provided best separation, however in elders in the ROI just before syncope (sensitivity: 74%, specificity 80%) in young immediately after tilt (sens.: 71%, spec.: 74%). In elder subjects, the relative reduction of SDNN 2-5 minute after tilt achieved almost the same performance (sens.: 74%, spec. 80%) as in the ROI before syncope (sens. 78%, spec. 73%), indicating the existence of rather early precursors of syncope that might help to predict the outcome of the HUTT in subjects in or after puberty.

  5. Potentiation of E-4031-induced torsade de pointes by HMR1556 or ATX-II is not predicted by action potential short-term variability or triangulation

    PubMed Central

    Michael, G; Dempster, J; Kane, K A; Coker, S J

    2007-01-01

    Background and purpose: Torsade de pointes (TdP) can be induced by a reduction in cardiac repolarizing capacity. The aim of this study was to assess whether I Ks blockade or enhancement of I Na could potentiate TdP induced by I Kr blockade and to investigate whether short-term variability (STV) or triangulation of action potentials preceded TdP. Experimental approach: Experiments were performed in open-chest, pentobarbital-anaesthetized, α1-adrenoceptor-stimulated, male New Zealand White rabbits, which received three consecutive i.v. infusions of either the I Kr blocker E-4031 (1, 3 and 10 nmol kg−1 min−1), the I Ks blocker HMR1556 (25, 75 and 250 nmol kg−1 min−1) or E-4031 and HMR1556 combined. In a second study rabbits received either the same doses of E-4031, the I Na enhancer, ATX-II (0.4, 1.2 and 4.0 nmol kg−1) or both of these drugs. ECGs and epicardial monophasic action potentials were recorded. Key results: HMR1556 alone did not cause TdP but increased E-4031-induced TdP from 25 to 80%. ATX-II alone caused TdP in 38% of rabbits, as did E-4031; 75% of rabbits receiving both drugs had TdP. QT intervals were prolonged by all drugs but the extent of QT prolongation was not related to the occurrence of TdP. No changes in STV were detected and triangulation was only increased after TdP occurred. Conclusions and implications: Giving modulators of ion channels in combination substantially increased TdP but, in this model, neither STV nor triangulation of action potentials could predict TdP. PMID:17965747

  6. Heart rate variability and DNA methylation levels are altered after short-term metal fume exposure among occupational welders: a repeated-measures panel study.

    PubMed

    Fan, Tianteng; Fang, Shona C; Cavallari, Jennifer M; Barnett, Ian J; Wang, Zhaoxi; Su, Li; Byun, Hyang-Min; Lin, Xihong; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Christiani, David C

    2014-12-16

    In occupational settings, boilermakers are exposed to high levels of metallic fine particulate matter (PM2.5) generated during the welding process. The effect of welding PM2.5 on heart rate variability (HRV) has been described, but the relationship between PM2.5, DNA methylation, and HRV is not known. In this repeated-measures panel study, we recorded resting HRV and measured DNA methylation levels in transposable elements Alu and long interspersed nuclear element-1 (LINE-1) in peripheral blood leukocytes under ambient conditions (pre-shift) and right after a welding task (post-shift) among 66 welders. We also monitored personal PM2.5 level in the ambient environment and during the welding procedure. The concentration of welding PM2.5 was significantly higher than background levels in the union hall (0.43 mg/m3 vs. 0.11 mg/m3, p < 0.0001). The natural log of transformed power in the high frequency range (ln HF) had a significantly negative association with PM2.5 exposure (β = -0.76, p = 0.035). pNN10 and pNN20 also had a negative association with PM2.5 exposure (β = -0.16%, p = 0.006 and β = -0.13%, p = 0.030, respectively). PM2.5 was positively associated with LINE-1 methylation [β = 0.79%, 5-methylcytosince (%mC), p = 0.013]; adjusted for covariates. LINE-1 methylation did not show an independent association with HRV. Acute decline of HRV was observed following exposure to welding PM2.5 and evidence for an epigenetic response of transposable elements to short-term exposure to high-level metal-rich particulates was reported.

  7. Reliable long-lasting depression interacts with variable short-term facilitation to determine corticostriatal paired-pulse plasticity in young rats

    PubMed Central

    Akopian, G; Walsh, J P

    2007-01-01

    Synaptic plasticity at corticostraital synapses is proposed to fine tune movment and improve motor skills. We found paired-pulse plasticity at corticostriatal synapses reflected variably expressed short-term facilitation blended with a consistent background of longer-lasting depression. Presynaptic modulation via neuotransmitter receptor activation was ruled out as a mechanism for long-lasting paired-pulse depression by examining the effect of selective receptor antagonists. EPSC amplitude and paired-pulse plasticity, however, was influenced by block of D2 dopamine receptors. Block of glutamate transport with l-transdicarboxylic acid (PDC) reduced EPSCs, possibly through a mechanism of AMPA receptor desensitization. Removal of AMPA receptor desensitization with cyclothiazide reduced the paired-pulse depression at long-duration interstimulus intervals (ISIs), indicating that AMPA receptor desensitization participates in corticostriatal paired-pulse plasticity. The low-affinity glutamate receptor antagonist cis-2,3-piperidine dicarboxylic acid (PDA) increased paired-pulse depression, suggesting that a presynaptic component also exists for long-lasting paired-pulse depression. Low Ca2+–high Mg2+ or BAPTA-AM dramatically reduced the amplitude of corticostriatal EPSCs and both manipulations increased the expression of facilitation and, to a lesser extent, they reduced long-lasting paired-pulse depression. EGTA-AM produced a smaller reduction in EPSC amplitude and it did not alter paired-pulse facilitation, but in contrast to low Ca2+ and BAPTA-AM, EGTA-AM increased long-lasting paired-pulse depression. These experiments suggest that facilitation and depression are sensitive to vesicle depletion, which is dependent upon changes in peak Ca2+ (i.e. low Ca2+–high Mg2+ or BAPTA-AM). In addition, the action of EGTA-AM suggests that basal Ca2+ regulates the recovery from long-lasting paired-pulse depression, possibly thourgh a Ca2+-sensitive process of vesicle delivery

  8. Climate change, climate variability and brucellosis.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

    2013-04-01

    In addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods, climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, altering the composition of global atmosphere. This phenomenon continues to be a significant and global threat for the humankind, and its impact compromises many aspects of the society at different levels, including health. The impact of climate change on zoonotic diseases has been largely ignored, particularly brucellosis. We here review some direct and indirect evidences of the impact of climate change and climate variability on brucellosis.

  9. Prognostic relevance of the interaction between short-term, metronome-paced heart rate variability, and inflammation: results from the population-based CARLA cohort study.

    PubMed

    Medenwald, Daniel; Swenne, Cees A; Loppnow, Harald; Kors, Jan A; Pietzner, Diana; Tiller, Daniel; Thiery, Joachim; Nuding, Sebastian; Greiser, Karin H; Haerting, Johannes; Werdan, Karl; Kluttig, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To determine the interaction between HRV and inflammation and their association with cardiovascular/all-cause mortality in the general population. Subjects of the CARLA study (n = 1671; 778 women, 893 men, 45-83 years of age) were observed for an average follow-up period of 8.8 years (226 deaths, 70 cardiovascular deaths). Heart rate variability parameters were calculated from 5-min segments of 20-min resting electrocardiograms. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and soluble tumour necrosis factor-alpha receptor type 1 (sTNF-R1) were measured as inflammation parameters. The HRV parameters determined included the standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN), the root-mean-square of successive normal-interval differences (RMSSD), the low- and high-frequency (HF) power, the ratio of both, and non-linear parameters [Poincaré plot (SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2), short-term detrended fluctuation analysis]. We estimated hazard ratios by using covariate-adjusted Cox regression for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality incorporating an interaction term of HRV/inflammation parameters. Relative excess risk due to interactions (RERIs) were computed. We found an interaction effect of sTNF-R1 with SDNN (RERI: 0.5; 99% confidence interval (CI): 0.1-1.0), and a weaker effect with RMSSD (RERI: 0.4; 99% CI: 0.0-0.9) and HF (RERI: 0.4; 99% CI: 0.0-0.9) with respect to cardiovascular mortality on an additive scale after covariate adjustment. Neither IL-6 nor hsCRP showed a significant interaction with the HRV parameters. A change in TNF-α levels or the autonomic nervous system influences the mortality risk through both entities simultaneously. Thus, TNF-α and HRV need to be considered when predicating mortality. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Effect of short-term high-protein compared with normal-protein diets on renal hemodynamics and associated variables in healthy young men.

    PubMed

    Frank, Helga; Graf, Julia; Graf, Juliane; Amann-Gassner, Ulrike; Bratke, Renate; Daniel, Hannelore; Heemann, Uwe; Hauner, Hans

    2009-12-01

    High-protein diets are effective for weight reduction; however, little is known about the potential adverse renal effects of such diets. The aim of our study was to compare the effect of a high-protein (HP) with a normal-protein (NP) diet on renal hemodynamics and selected clinical-chemical factors. We prospectively studied the effect of an HP diet (2.4 g x kg(-1) x d(-1)) with that of an NP diet (1.2 g x kg(-1) x d(-1)) on the glomerular filtration rate (assessed on the basis of sinistrin-an inulin analog-clearance) and renal plasma flow (para-aminohippuric acid clearance) by using the constant infusion technique. Filtration fraction and renal vascular resistance were calculated. Twenty-four healthy young men followed the 2 diet protocols for 7 d each in a crossover design. They were individually advised by a dietitian to achieve the planned protein intake by selecting normal foods under isocaloric conditions. Serum and urinary variables and renal hemodynamics were measured on day 7 of both diets. The glomerular filtration rate (NP: 125 +/- 5 mL/min; HP: 141 +/- 8 mL/min; P < 0.001) and filtration fraction (NP: 23 +/- 5%; HP: 28 +/- 5%; P < 0.05) increased significantly with the HP diet. Renal plasma flow was not significantly different between the HP (496 +/- 25 mL/min) and NP (507 +/- 18 mL/min) phases. Renal vascular resistance was not significantly different between the NP (94 +/- 6 mm Hg x mL(-1) x min(-1)) and HP (99 +/- 8 mm Hg x mL(-1) x min(-1)) phases. Blood urea nitrogen, serum uric acid, glucagon, natriuresis, urinary albumin, and urea excretion increased significantly with the HP diet. A short-term HP diet alters renal hemodynamics and renal excretion of uric acid, sodium, and albumin. More attention should be paid to the potential adverse renal effects of HP diets.

  11. Climate Impact of Solar Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schatten, Kenneth H. (Editor); Arking, Albert (Editor)

    1990-01-01

    The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

  12. Climate Variability and Ecosystem Response

    Treesearch

    David Greenland; Lloyd W. Swift; [Editors

    1990-01-01

    Nine papers describe studies of climate variability and ecosystem response. The studies were conducted at LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research) sites representing forest, agricultural, and aquatic ecosystems and systems in which extreme climates limit vegetational cover. An overview paper prepared by the LTER Climate Committee stresses the importance of (1) clear...

  13. Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate, Arctic ice, and air pollution health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.

    2010-07-01

    This study examines the short-term (˜15 year) effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot (FS) (black carbon (BC), primary organic matter (POM), and S(IV) (H2SO4(aq), HSO4-, and SO42-)), solid-biofuel soot and gases (BSG) (BC, POM, S(IV), K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, NO3-, Cl- and several dozen gases, including CO2 and CH4), and methane on global and Arctic temperatures, cloudiness, precipitation, and atmospheric composition. Climate response simulations were run with GATOR-GCMOM, accounting for both microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation. The model treated discrete size-resolved aging and internal mixing of aerosol soot, discrete size-resolved evolution of clouds/precipitation from externally and internally mixed aerosol particles, and soot absorption in aerosols, clouds/precipitation, and snow/sea ice. Eliminating FS, FS+BSG (FSBSG), and CH4 in isolation were found to reduce global surface air temperatures by a statistically significant 0.3-0.5 K, 0.4-0.7 K, and 0.2-0.4 K, respectively, averaged over 15 years. As net global warming (0.7-0.8 K) is due mostly to gross pollutant warming from fossil-fuel greenhouse gases (2-2.4 K), and FSBSG (0.4-0.7 K) offset by cooling due to non-FSBSG aerosol particles (-1.7 to -2.3 K), removing FS and FSBSG may reduce 13-16% and 17-23%, respectively, of gross warming to date. Reducing FS, FSBSG, and CH4 in isolation may reduce warming above the Arctic Circle by up to ˜1.2 K, ˜1.7 K, and ˜0.9 K, respectively. Both FS and BSG contribute to warming, but FS is a stronger contributor per unit mass emission. However, BSG may cause 8 times more mortality than FS. The global e-folding lifetime of emitted BC (from all fossil sources) against internal mixing by coagulation was ˜3 h, similar to data, and that of all BC against dry plus wet removal was ˜4.7 days. About 90% of emitted FS BC mass was lost to internal mixing by coagulation, ˜7% to wet removal, ˜3% to dry removal, and a residual

  14. Short-term Variability of Physical and Chemical Parameters in Suboxic/Anoxic Bottom Waters of the Chesapeake Bay During Late July 2002.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montbriand, P. J.; Lewis, B. L.; Luther, G. W.; Glazer, B. T.; Ma, S.; Reedy, S.; Nuzzio, D. B.; Spencer, T.; Theberge, S.

    2002-12-01

    concentrations of ~40-70 μM (7-12 m depth), and 0.1-0.3 μM nitrite was observed in the surface layer. In the bottom waters, nitrite increased over the sampling period from 0 to about 0.07 μM. The data imply two sources of nitrite, ammonification/nitrification in the oxygenated waters and denitrification in the deep waters. Dissolved Mn increased below 12-14 meters, coincident with oxygen concentrations < 20 μM. Concentrations in the deep waters varied widely, from ~ 0.2 to 7 μM. Dissolved Fe(II) was detected only at oxygen levels < 5 μM, with concentrations in the deep waters ranging from ~ 0.2 to 1.4 μM. Plotting the chemical data versus salinity rather than depth decreases the scatter due to tidal variation and displays a clear separation between the onset of Mn and Fe reduction. This study illustrates the dynamic, rapidly changing nature of water-column anoxia in the Chesapeake Bay. The depth of oxygen penetration, the thickness of the suboxic zone and the concentration of sulfide in the deep waters fluctuate in response to tidal oscillations and to the passage of storm events. Real-time measurements are necessary to document these short-term variations.

  15. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  16. Short-term improvements in public health from global-climate policies on fossil-fuel combustion: an interim report. Working Group on Public Health and Fossil-Fuel Combustion.

    PubMed

    1997-11-08

    Most public-health assessments of climate-control policies have focused on long-term impacts of global change. Our interdisciplinary working group assesses likely short-term impacts on public health. We combined models of energy consumption, carbon emissions, and associated atmospheric particulate-matter (PM) concentration under two different forecasts: business-as-usual (BAU); and a hypothetical climate-policy scenario, where developed and developing countries undertake significant reductions in carbon emissions. We predict that by 2020, 700,000 avoidable deaths (90% CI 385,000-1,034,000) will occur annually as a result of additional PM exposure under the BAU forecasts when compared with the climate-policy scenario. From 2000 to 2020, the cumulative impact on public health related to the difference in PM exposure could total 8 million deaths globally (90% CI 4.4-11.9 million). In the USA alone, the avoidable number of annual deaths from PM exposure in 2020 (without climate-change-control policy) would equal in magnitude deaths associated with human immunodeficiency diseases or all liver diseases in 1995. The mortality estimates are indicative of the magnitude of the likely health benefits of the climate-policy scenario examined and are not precise predictions of avoidable deaths. While characterized by considerable uncertainty, the short-term public-health impacts of reduced PM exposures associated with greenhouse-gas reductions are likely to be substantial even under the most conservative set of assumptions.

  17. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pap, J. M.

    2004-12-01

    One of the most exciting and important challenges in science today is to understand climate variability and to make reliable predictions. The Earth's climate is a complex system driven by external and internal forces. Climate can vary over a large range of time scales as a consequence of natural variability or anthropogenic influence, or both. Observations of steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases --primarily man-made-- in the Earth's atmosphere have led to an expectation of global warming during the coming decades. However, the greenhouse effect competes with other climate forcing mechanisms, such as solar variability, cosmic ray flux changes, desertification, deforestation, and changes in natural and man-made atmospheric aerosols. Indeed, the climate is always changing, and has forever been so, including periods before the industrial era began. Since the dominant driving force of the climate system is the Sun, the accurate knowledge of the solar radiation received by Earth at various wavelengths and from energetic particles with varying intensities, as well as a better knowledge of the solar-terrestrial interactions and their temporal and spatial variability are crucial to quantify the solar influence on climate and to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences. In this paper we give an overview on the recent results of solar irradiance measurements over the last three decades and the possible effects of solar variability on climate.

  18. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Waliser, Duane E.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

  19. Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Waliser, Duane E.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

  20. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  1. Short-term variability of 7Be atmospheric deposition and watershed response in a Pacific coastal stream, Monterey Bay, California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conaway, Christopher H.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Draut, Amy E.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2013-01-01

    Beryllium-7 is a powerful and commonly used tracer for environmental processes such as watershed sediment provenance, soil erosion, fluvial and nearshore sediment cycling, and atmospheric fallout. However, few studies have quantified temporal or spatial variability of 7Be accumulation from atmospheric fallout, and parameters that would better define the uses and limitations of this geochemical tracer. We investigated the abundance and variability of 7Be in atmospheric deposition in both rain events and dry periods, and in stream surface-water samples collected over a ten-month interval at sites near northern Monterey Bay (37°N, 122°W) on the central California coast, a region characterized by a rainy winters, dry summers, and small mountainous streams with flashy hydrology. The range of 7Be activity in rainwater samples from the main sampling site was 1.3–4.4 Bq L−1, with a mean (±standard deviation) of 2.2 ± 0.9 Bq L−1, and a volume-weighted average of 2.0 Bq L−1. The range of wet atmospheric deposition was 18–188 Bq m−2 per rain event, with a mean of 72 ± 53 Bq m−2. Dry deposition fluxes of 7Be ranged from less than 0.01 up to 0.45 Bq m−2 d−1, with an estimated dry season deposition of 7 Bq m−2 month−1. Annualized 7Be atmospheric deposition was approximately 1900 Bq m−2 yr−1, with most deposition via rainwater (>95%) and little via dry deposition. Overall, these activities and deposition fluxes are similar to values found in other coastal locations with comparable latitude and Mediterranean-type climate. Particulate 7Be values in the surface water of the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz, California, ranged from −1 to 0.6 Bq g−1, with a median activity of 0.26 Bq g−1. A large storm event in January 2010 characterized by prolonged flooding resulted in the entrainment of 7Be-depleted sediment, presumably from substantial erosion in the watershed. There were too few particulate 7Be data over the storm to accurately model a 7Be load

  2. Short-term geomorphological evolution of proglacial systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Heckmann, Tobias

    2017-06-01

    Proglacial systems are amongst the most rapidly changing landscapes on Earth, as glacier mass loss, permafrost degradation and more episodes of intense rainfall progress with climate change. This review addresses the urgent need to quantitatively define proglacial systems not only in terms of spatial extent but also in terms of functional processes. It firstly provides a critical appraisal of prevailing conceptual models of proglacial systems, and uses this to justify compiling data on rates of landform change in terms of planform, horizontal motion, elevation changes and sediment budgets. These data permit us to produce novel summary conceptual diagrams that consider proglacial landscape evolution in terms of a balance of longitudinal and lateral water and sediment fluxes. Throughout, we give examples of newly emerging datasets and data processing methods because these have the potential to assist with the issues of: (i) a lack of knowledge of proglacial systems within high-mountain, arctic and polar regions, (ii) considerable inter- and intra-catchment variability in the geomorphology and functioning of proglacial systems, (iii) problems with the magnitude of short-term geomorphological changes being at the threshold of detection, (iv) separating short-term variability from longer-term trends, and (v) of the representativeness of plot-scale field measurements for regionalisation and for upscaling. We consider that understanding of future climate change effects on proglacial systems requires holistic process-based modelling to explicitly consider feedbacks and linkages, especially between hillslope and valley-floor components. Such modelling must be informed by a new generation of repeated distributed topographic surveys to detect and quantify short-term geomorphological changes.

  3. Short-term energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-11-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents future scenarios of quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and prices for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous estimate errors, compares recent scenarios with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The scenario period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1990 through the fourth quarter of 1991. Some data for the third quarter of 1990 are preliminary EIA estimates of actual data (for example, some petroleum estimates are based on statistics from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are derived from internal model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, some electricity demand estimates are based on recent weather data). 11 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. The short-term variability of bacterial vaginosis diagnosed by Nugent Gram stain criteria among sexually active women in Rakai, Uganda.

    PubMed

    Thoma, Marie E; Gray, Ronald H; Kiwanuka, Noah; Aluma, Simon; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Sewankambo, Nelson; Wawer, Maria J

    2011-02-01

    Studies evaluating clinical and behavioral factors related to short-term fluctuations in vaginal microbiota are limited. We sought to describe changes in vaginal microbiota evaluated by Gram stain and assess factors associated with progression to and resolution of bacterial vaginosis (BV) at weekly intervals. A cohort of 255 sexually experienced, postmenarcheal women provided self-collected vaginal swabs to assess vaginal microbiota by Nugent score criteria at weekly visits for up to 2 years contributing 16,757 sequential observations. Absolute differences in Nugent scores (0-10) and transition probabilities of vaginal microbiota states classified by Nugent score into normal (0-3), intermediate (4-6), and BV (7-10) between visits were estimated. Allowing each woman to serve as her own control, weekly time-varying factors associated with progression from normal microbiota to BV and resolution of BV to normal microbiota were estimated using conditional logistic regression. The distribution of absolute difference in Nugent scores was fairly symmetric with a mode of 0 (no change) and a standard deviation of 2.64. Transition probabilities showed weekly persistence, was highest for normal (76.1%) and BV (73.6%) states; whereas, intermediate states had similar probabilities of progression (36.6%), resolution (36.0%), and persistence (27.4%). Weekly fluctuation between normal and BV states was associated with menstrual cycle phase, recency of sex, treatment for vaginal symptoms, pregnancy, and prior Nugent score. Weekly changes in vaginal microbiota were common in this population. Clinical and behavioral characteristics were associated with vaginal microbiota transitioning, which may be used to inform future studies and clinical management of BV.

  5. Evolution and climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Potts, R.

    1996-08-16

    Variations in organisms are preserved and accrue if there is a consistent bias in selection over many generations. This idea of long-term directional selection has been embraced to explain major adaptive change. It is widely thought that important adaptive shifts in hominids corresponded with directional environmental change. This view, which echoes the savanna scenario of hominid evolution, has strongly been supported by paleontologists and paleoclimatologists over the past decade. The origin of the hominids, bipedality, stone toolmaking, and brain size increase have all been related to cooling, aridification, and savanna expansion. However there appears to be a more prominent signal than the aridity trend: an increase in the range of climatic variation over time. This article discusses the possible reprocussions of this interpertation. 13 refs.

  6. Using Short-term Hindcast Skill to Add Confidence to the Choice of Uncertain Model Parameter Values in CESM Climate Change Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannay, C.; Neale, R. B.; Rothstein, M.

    2016-12-01

    Projections of future climate change are inherently uncertain and regional details are heavily dependent on coupled climate model formulations. Bernstein and Neelin (2016) show that projections of future climate using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can vary significantly depending on the (reasonable) value used for important but uncertain model parameters. This includes a wide variation in the tropical precipitation response due to perturbations of parameters inherent to the formulation of deep convection parameterization. The question is therefore which model formulation should be trusted most? Since true validation is, of course, not possible at present day, guidance has to be provided by other proxies. Using a simple metric that climate models that performing best in a standard present-day (AMIP-type) configuration should be trusted most for future climate projections is unsatisfactory here, as only a small tuning effort is required to produce simulations equally skillful to the unperturbed model configurations. Here we employ an alternative approach for "trusting" the future climate projections. It is based on using CESM for a series of CAPT-type hindcast simulations, mirroring the limited perturbed parameter ensemble approach of Bernstein and Neelin (2016). Simulation sets are run for the YOTC period of 2009-2010 using CAM5 at 1 degree resolution. In this talk we will show the regional variations of climate change signals in the hydrological cycle in response to deep convection dependent parameter sets (e.g., entrainment, timescale) and contrast them with the equivalent hindcast experiments using the same parameter set. With this analysis we are able to provide guidance as to which parameter value selections result in the highest skill in the hindcasts and how that corresponds with the equivalent CESM future climate change signals.

  7. Short-term water stress impacts on stomatal, mesophyll and biochemical limitations to photosynthesis differ consistently among tree species from contrasting climates.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Shuangxi; Medlyn, Belinda; Sabaté, Santiago; Sperlich, Dominik; Prentice, I Colin

    2014-10-01

    Predicting the large-scale consequences of drought in contrasting environments requires that we understand how drought effects differ among species originating from those environments. A previous meta-analysis of published experiments suggested that the effects of drought on both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis may vary consistently among species from different hydroclimates. Here, we explicitly tested this hypothesis with two short-term water stress experiments on congeneric mesic and xeric species. One experiment was run in Australia using Eucalyptus species and the second was run in Spain using Quercus species as well as two more mesic species. In each experiment, plants were grown under moist conditions in a glasshouse, then deprived of water, and gas exchange was monitored. The stomatal response was analysed with a recently developed stomatal model, whose single parameter g1 represents the slope of the relationship between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis. The non-stomatal response was partitioned into effects on mesophyll conductance (gm), the maximum Rubisco activity (Vcmax) and the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax). We found consistency among the drought responses of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, suggesting that drought imposes limitations on Rubisco activity and RuBP regeneration capacity concurrently with declines in stomatal and mesophyll conductance. Within each experiment, the more xeric species showed relatively high g1 under moist conditions, low drought sensitivity of g1, gm, Vcmax and Jmax, and more negative values of the critical pre-dawn water potential at which Vcmax declines most steeply, compared with the more mesic species. These results indicate adaptive interspecific differences in drought responses that allow xeric tree species to continue transpiration and photosynthesis for longer during periods without rain. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions

  8. Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2017-04-01

    Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N2O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N2O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N2O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N2O emissions were temporary and once the

  9. Solar variability, weather, and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    Advances in the understanding of possible effects of solar variations on weather and climate are most likely to emerge by addressing the subject in terms of fundamental physical principles of atmospheric sciences and solar-terrestrial physis. The limits of variability of solar inputs to the atmosphere and the depth in the atmosphere to which these variations have significant effects are determined.

  10. Monthly means of selected climate variables for 1985 - 1989

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, S.; Wu, C.-Y.; Zero, J.; Schemm, J.-K.; Park, C.-K.; Suarez, M.

    1992-01-01

    Meteorologists are accustomed to viewing instantaneous weather maps, since these contain the most relevant information for the task of producing short-range weather forecasts. Climatologists, on the other hand, tend to deal with long-term means, which portray the average climate. The recent emphasis on dynamical extended-range forecasting and, in particular measuring and predicting short term climate change makes it important that we become accustomed to looking at variations on monthly and longer time scales. A convenient toll for researchers to familiarize themselves with the variability which occurs in selected parameters on these time scales is provided. The format of the document was chosen to help facilitate the intercomparison of various parameters and highlight the year-to-year variability in monthly means.

  11. Emotional Availability in Mother-Child Dyads: Short-Term Stability and Continuity from Variable-Centered and Person-Centered Perspectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bornstein, Marc H.; Gini, Motti; Suwalsky, Joan T. D.; Putnick, Diane L.; Haynes, O. Maurice

    2006-01-01

    Emotional availability (EA) is a prominent index of socioemotional adaptation in the parent-child dyad. Can basic psychometric properties of EA be looked at from both variable (scale) and person (cluster) points of view in individuals and in dyads? Is EA stable and continuous over a short period of time? This methodological study shows significant…

  12. Are commercial sweet cherry rootstocks adapted to climate change? Short-term waterlogging and CO2 effects on sweet cherry cv. 'Burlat'.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Jiménez, Margarita; Hernández-Munuera, María; Piñero, M Carmen; López-Ortega, Gregorio; Del Amor, Francisco M

    2017-01-20

    High CO2 is able to ameliorate some negative effects due to climate change and intensify others. This study involves the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) cultivar 'Burlat' grafted on the 'Mariana 2624', 'Adara' and 'LC 52' rootstocks. In a climate chamber at two CO2 concentrations, ambient (400 µmol mol(-1) ) and elevated (800 µmol mol(-1) ), the plants were submitted to waterlogging for 7 d, followed by 7 d of recovery after drainage. Waterlogging drastically decreased the rate of photosynthesis, significantly endangering plant survival, particularly for the 'LC 52' and 'Adara' rootstocks. 'Mariana 2624' was also clearly affected by waterlogging that increased lipid peroxidation and the Cl(-) and SO4(2-) concentrations in all the studied plants. Nevertheless, CO2 was able to overcome this reduction in photosynthesis, augmenting growth, increasing soluble sugars and starch, raising turgor and regulating the concentrations of Cl(-) and SO4(2-) , while lowering the NO3(-) concentration in leaves of all the studied rootstocks. In concordance with these results, the proline levels indicated a more intense stress at control CO2 than at high CO2 for waterlogged plants. 'Mariana 2624' was more resistant to waterlogging than 'Adara', and both were more resistant than 'LC 52' in control CO2 conditions; this clearly enhanced the chance of survival under hypoxia.

  13. Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mörner, N.-A.

    The thermal conditions on Planet Earth are primarily the function of the energy in- put from the Sun. The variations in climate on Planet Earth is, however, primarily the function of the redistribution and reorganisation of the internal terrestrial heat balance. Solar variability may affect terrestrial climate (1) by direct changes in irradiance, a fac- tor, however, which is known to be very small, (2) by the solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field increasing and decreasing the shielding capacity to infalling cosmic-ray, which is known to affect the formation of clouds thereby also affecting global terrestrial climat, and (3) by the solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field leading to changes in the EarthSs rate of rotation which affect ocean and atmo- sphere circulation thereby also affecting global climate (and sea level). INTAS Project 97-301008 concerns the interaction between geomagnetic field changes and global climatic changes. No doubts, we see important links between externally and internally driven changes in the EarthSs geomagnetic field and changes in terrestrial climate.

  14. Impact of short-term climate variation and hydrology change on thermal structure and water quality of a canyon-shaped, stratified reservoir.

    PubMed

    Ma, Wei-Xing; Huang, Ting-Lin; Li, Xuan; Zhang, Hai-Han; Ju, Tuo

    2015-12-01

    Climate variation can have obvious effects on hydrologic conditions, which in turn can have direct consequences for the thermal regime and quality of water for human use. In this research, weekly surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2013 to investigate how changes of climate and hydrology affect the thermal regime and water quality at the Heihe Reservoir. Our results show that the hydrology change during the flooding season can both increase the oxygen concentration and accelerate the consumption of dissolved oxygen. Continuous heavy rainfall events occurred in September 2011 caused the mixing of the entire reservoir, which led to an increase in dissolved oxygen at the bottom until the next year. Significant turbid density flow was observed following the extreme rainfall events in 2012 which leading to a rapid increase in turbidity at the bottom (up to 3000 NTU). Though the dissolved oxygen at the bottom increased from 0 to 9.02 mg/L after the rainfall event, it became anoxic within 20 days due to the increase of water oxygen demand caused by the suspended matter brought by the storm runoff. The release of compounds from the sediments was more serious during the anaerobic period after the rainfall events and the concentration of total iron, total phosphorus, and total manganese at the bottom reached 1.778, 0.102, and 0.125 mg/L. The improved water-lifting aerators kept on running after the storm runoff occurred in 2013 to avoid the deterioration of water quality during anaerobic conditions and ensured the good water quality during the mixing period. Our results suggest preventive and remediation actions that are necessary to improve water quality and status.

  15. Emergence of Algal Blooms: The Effects of Short-Term Variability in Water Quality on Phytoplankton Abundance, Diversity, and Community Composition in a Tidal Estuary

    PubMed Central

    Egerton, Todd A.; Morse, Ryan E.; Marshall, Harold G.; Mulholland, Margaret R.

    2014-01-01

    Algal blooms are dynamic phenomena, often attributed to environmental parameters that vary on short timescales (e.g., hours to days). Phytoplankton monitoring programs are largely designed to examine long-term trends and interannual variability. In order to better understand and evaluate the relationships between water quality variables and the genesis of algal blooms, daily samples were collected over a 34 day period in the eutrophic Lafayette River, a tidal tributary within Chesapeake Bay’s estuarine complex, during spring 2006. During this period two distinct algal blooms occurred; the first was a cryptomonad bloom and this was followed by a bloom of the mixotrophic dinoflagellate, Gymnodinium instriatum. Chlorophyll a, nutrient concentrations, and physical and chemical parameters were measured daily along with phytoplankton abundance and community composition. While 65 phytoplankton species from eight major taxonomic groups were identified in samples and total micro- and nano-phytoplankton cell densities ranged from 5.8 × 106 to 7.8 × 107 cells L−1, during blooms, cryptomonads and G. instriatum were 91.6% and 99.0%, respectively, of the total phytoplankton biomass during blooms. The cryptomonad bloom developed following a period of rainfall and concomitant increases in inorganic nitrogen concentrations. Nitrate, nitrite and ammonium concentrations 0 to 5 days prior were positively lag-correlated with cryptomonad abundance. In contrast, the G. insriatum bloom developed during periods of low dissolved nitrogen concentrations and their abundance was negatively correlated with inorganic nitrogen concentrations. PMID:27694775

  16. Longer-term and short-term variability in pollution of fluvial sediments by dioxin-like and endocrine disruptive compounds.

    PubMed

    Macikova, P; Kalabova, T; Klanova, J; Kukucka, P; Giesy, J P; Hilscherova, K

    2014-04-01

    Changes in pollutant loads in relatively dynamic river sediments, which contain very complex mixtures of compounds, can play a crucial role in the fate and effects of pollutants in fluvial ecosystems. The contamination of sediments by bioactive substances can be sensitively assessed by in vitro bioassays. This is the first study that characterizes detailed short- and long-term changes in concentrations of contaminants with several modes of action in river sediments. One-year long monthly study described seasonal and spatial variability of contamination of sediments in a representative industrialized area by dioxin-like and endocrine disruptive chemicals. There were significant seasonal changes in both antiandrogenic and androgenic as well as dioxin-like potential of river sediments, while there were no general seasonal trends in estrogenicity. Aryl hydrocarbon receptor-dependent potency (dioxin-like potency) expressed as biological TCDD-equivalents (BIOTEQ) was in the range of 0.5-17.7 ng/g, dry mass (dm). The greatest BIOTEQ levels in sediments were observed during winter, particularly at locations downstream of the industrial area. Estrogenicity expressed as estradiol equivalents (EEQ) was in the range of 0.02-3.8 ng/g, dm. Antiandrogenicity was detected in all samples, while androgenic potency in the range of 0.7-16.8 ng/g, dm dihydrotestosterone equivalents (DHT-EQ) was found in only 30 % of samples, most often during autumn, when antiandrogenicity was the least. PAHs were predominant contaminants among analyzed pollutants, responsible, on average, for 13-21 % of BIOTEQ. Longer-term changes in concentrations of BIOTEQ corresponded to seasonal fluctuations, whereas for EEQ, the inter-annual changes at some locations were greater than seasonal variability during 1 year. The inter- as well as intra-annual variability in concentrations of both BIOTEQ and EEQ at individual sites was greater in spring than in autumn which was related to hydrological conditions in the

  17. Short-term spectral analysis of heart rate variability during supine-standing-supine test in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Galuszka, Jan; Opavský, Jaroslav; Lukl, Jan; Stejskal, Pavel; Zapletalová, Jana; Salinger, Jirí

    2004-07-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the sympathovagal balance in group of 27 patients without significant structural heart disease after an attack of atrial fibrillation. The investigation was performed using spectral analysis of heart rate variability during examination under conditions of different orthostatic loads in single phases, called the supine-standing- supine test. The findings were compared with a group of healthy persons. These revealed a significantly decreased total spectral power (430.7 vs 1558.0 ms(2) supine1; 477.6 vs 1042,5 ms(2) standing; 567.5 vs 1948.5 ms(2) supine2), and spectral power of the high frequency spectral component (140.8 vs 619.3 ms(2) supine1; 96.2 vs 203.3 ms(2) standing; 186.3 vs 739.4 ms(2) supine2) in the studied group of patients in comparison with the control group.

  18. Short-term spectral and polarimetric variability in the Herbig AE star AB Aurigae as an indicator of the circumstellar inhomogeneity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beskrovnaya, N. G.; Pogodin, M. A.; Najdenov, I. D.; Romanyuk, I. I.

    1995-06-01

    We present the results of the simultaneous spectral and polarimetric investigation of AB Aur - the Ae Herbig star from the "PCyg" subclass. About 150 high-resolution CCD spectra in the region of Hα and more than 100 UBVRI measurements of the linear polarization were obtained at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory during two seasons in 1993 and 1994. Additional polarimetric observations in the B-band were carried out at the Special Astrophysical Observatory (Northern Caucasus). A strong variability of the Hα PCyg-type profile is analyzed on a timescale from hours to months. It is shown to be connected with circumstellar inhomogeneities moving in the envelope. The existence of a strong long-lived stream is supposed on the basis of joint spectral and polarimetric data in January 4-10, 1994.

  19. Short-term blood pressure variability - variation between arm side, body position and successive measurements: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Lacruz, Maria Elena; Kluttig, Alexander; Kuss, Oliver; Tiller, Daniel; Medenwald, Daniel; Nuding, Sebastian; Greiser, Karin Halina; Frantz, Stefan; Haerting, Johannes

    2017-01-18

    Precise blood pressure (BP) measurements are central for the diagnosis of hypertension in clinical and epidemiological studies. The purpose of this study was to quantify the variability in BP associated with arm side, body position, and successive measurements in the setting of a population-based observational study. Additionally, we aimed to evaluate the influence of different measurement conditions on prevalence of hypertension. The sample included 967 men and 812 women aged 45 to 83 years at baseline. BP was measured according to a standardized protocol with oscillometric devices including three sitting measurements at left arm, one simultaneous supine measurement at both arms, and four supine measurements at the arm with the higher BP. Hypertension was defined as systolic BP (SBP) ≥140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP (DBP) ≥90 mmHg. Variability in SBP and DBP were analysed with sex-stratified linear covariance pattern models. We found that overall, no mean BP differences were measured according to arm-side, but substantial higher DBP and for men also higher SBP was observed in sitting than in supine position and there was a clear BP decline by consecutive measurement. Accordingly, the prevalence of hypertension depends strongly on the number and scheme of BP measurements taken to calculate the index values. Thus, BP measurements should only be compared between studies applying equal measurement conditions and index calculation. Moreover, the first BP measurement should not be used to define hypertension since it overestimates BP. The mean of second and third measurement offers the advantage of better reproducibility over single measurements.

  20. Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

    PubMed Central

    Bennie, Jonathan; Hodgson, Jenny A; Lawson, Callum R; Holloway, Crispin TR; Roy, David B; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D; Wilson, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions. PMID:23701124

  1. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

    SciTech Connect

    Riahi, Keywan; Kriegler, Elmar; Johnson, Nils; Bertram, Christoph; den Elzen, Michel; Eom, Jiyong; Schaeffer, Michiel; Edmonds, James A.; Isaac, Morna; Krey, Volker; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Mejean, Aurelie; McCollum, David; Mima, Silvana; Turton, Hal; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wada, Kenichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Capros, Pantelis; Criqui, Patrick; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kainuma, M.; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE intermodeling comparison with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Ten modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emissions targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2C. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS), will become "a must" by 2030.

  2. Short-term variability in the sedimentary BIT index of Lake Challa, East Africa over the past 2200 years: validating the precipitation proxy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckles, L. K.; Weijers, J. W. H.; Verschuren, D.; Cocquyt, C.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.

    2015-04-01

    The branched vs. isoprenoid index of tetraethers (BIT index) in Lake Challa sediments has been applied as a monsoon precipitation proxy on the assumption that the primary source of branched tetraether lipids (brGDGTs) was soil washed in from the lake's catchment. However, water column production has since been identified as the primary source of brGDGTs in Lake Challa, meaning that there is no longer a clear mechanism linking BIT index variation and precipitation. Here we investigate BIT index variation and GDGT concentrations at a decadal resolution over the past 2200 years, in combination with GDGT data from profundal surface sediments and 45 months of sediment-trap deployment. The 2200 year record reveals high-frequency variability in GDGT concentrations, and therefore the BIT index. Also surface sediments collected in January 2010 show a distinct shift in GDGT composition relative to those collected in August 2007. Increased bulk flux of settling particles with high Ti / Al ratios during March-April 2008 reflect an event of high detrital input to Lake Challa, concurrent with intense precipitation at the onset of the principal rain season that year. Although brGDGT distributions in the settling material are initially unaffected, this soil erosion event is succeeded by a large diatom bloom in July-August 2008 and a concurrent increase in GDGT-0 fluxes. Near-zero crenarchaeol fluxes indicate that no thaumarchaeotal bloom developed during the subsequent austral summer season; instead a peak in brGDGT fluxes is observed in December 2008. We suggest that increased nutrient availability, derived from eroded soil washed into the lake, stimulated both diatom productivity and the GDGT-0 producing archaea which help decompose dead diatoms passing through the suboxic zone of the water column. This disadvantaged the Thaumarchaeota that normally prosper during the following austral summer. Instead, a bloom of supposedly heterotrophic brGDGT-producing bacteria occurred

  3. Short-term effects of manual therapy on heart rate variability, mood state, and pressure pain sensitivity in patients with chronic tension-type headache: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Toro-Velasco, Cristina; Arroyo-Morales, Manuel; Fernández-de-Las-Peñas, César; Cleland, Joshua A; Barrero-Hernández, Francisco J

    2009-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the immediate effects of head-neck massage on heart rate variability (HRV), mood states, and pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) in patients with chronic tension-type headache (CTTH). Eleven patients (8 females), between 20 and 68 years old, with CTTH participated in this crossover study. Patients received either the experimental treatment (massage protocol) or a placebo intervention (detuned ultrasound). Holter electrocardiogram recordings (standard deviation of the normal-to-normal interval, square root of mean squared differences of successive NN intervals, index HRV, low-frequency component, and high-frequency component), PPT over both temporalis muscles, and Profile of Mood States questionnaire (tension-anxiety, depression-dejection, anger-hostility, vigor, fatigue, confusion) were obtained preintervention, immediately after intervention, and 24 hours postintervention. Self-reported head pain was also collected preintervention and 24 hours postintervention. Separate analyses of covariance (ANCOVAs) were performed with each dependent variable. The hypothesis of interest was group x time interaction. The ANCOVA showed a significant group x time interaction for index HRV (F = 4.5, P = .04), but not for standard deviation of the normal-to-normal interval (F = 1.1, P = .3), square root of mean squared differences of successive NN intervals (F = 0.9, P = .3), low-frequency component (F = 0.03, P = .8), or high-frequency component (F = 0.4, P = .5) domains. Pairwise comparisons found that after the manual therapy intervention, patients showed an increase in the index HRV (P = .01) domain, whereas no changes were found after the placebo intervention (P = .7). The ANCOVA also found a significant group x time interaction for tension-anxiety (F = 5.3, P = .03) and anger-hostility (F = 4.6, P = .04) subscales. Pairwise comparisons found that after the manual therapy intervention, patients showed a decrease in tension-anxiety (P

  4. Short-term and seasonal pH,pCO2and saturation state variability in a coral-reef ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gray, Sarah E. C.; Degrandpre, Michael D.; Langdon, Chris; Corredor, Jorge E.

    2012-09-01

    Coral reefs are predicted to be one of the ecosystems most sensitive to ocean acidification. To improve predictions of coral reef response to acidification, we need to better characterize the natural range of variability of pH, partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and calcium carbonate saturation states (Ω). In this study, autonomous sensors for pH and pCO2 were deployed on Media Luna reef, Puerto Rico over three seasons from 2007 to 2008. High temporal resolution CaCO3 saturation states were calculated from the in situ data, giving a much more detailed characterization of reef saturation states than previously possible. Reef pH, pCO2 and aragonite saturation (ΩAr) ranged from 7.89 to 8.17 pH units, 176-613 μatm and 2.7-4.7, respectively, in the range characteristic of most other previously studied reef ecosystems. The diel pH, pCO2 and Ω cycles were also large, encompassing about half of the seasonal range of variability. Warming explained about 50% of the seasonal supersaturation in mean pCO2, with the remaining supersaturation primarily due to net heterotrophy and net CaCO3 production. Net heterotrophy was likely driven by remineralization of mangrove derived organic carbon which continued into the fall, sustaining high pCO2 levels until early winter when the pCO2 returned to offshore values. As a consequence, the reef was a source of CO2 to the atmosphere during the summer and fall and a sink during winter, resulting in a net annual source of 0.73 ± 1.7 mol m-2 year-1. These results show that reefs are exposed to a wide range of saturation states in their natural environment. Mean ΩAr levels will drop to 3.0 when atmospheric CO2 increases to 500 μatm and ΩAr will be less than 3.0 for greater than 70% of the time in the summer. Long duration exposure to these low ΩAr levels are expected to significantly decrease calcification rates on the reef.

  5. Effects of short-term hypocaloric diet on sympatho-vagal interaction assessed by spectral analysis of heart rate and blood pressure variability during stress tests in obese hypertensive patients.

    PubMed

    Ashida, Terunao; Ono, Chikako; Sugiyama, Takao

    2007-12-01

    We examined the effects of a short-term low-calorie diet on the activity of the autonomic nervous system during stress tests in obese patients with hypertension by analysis of heart rate and blood pressure variability. Eighteen obese inpatients with essential hypertension were given a regular-calorie diet (1,600 kcal, NaCl 7 g) for 4 days, and then a low-calorie diet (1,100 kcal, NaCl 7 g) for 11 days. During both the regular-calorie diet and low-calorie diet, power spectral analysis of heart rate and blood pressure variability at rest and during mental arithmetic test, deep breathing test, isometric handgrip test or cold pressor test was performed. Body weight and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure were significantly lower during the low-calorie diet than during the regular-calorie diet. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure significantly increased over the handgrip test and cold pressor test during both diets. The low frequency component (LF) of systolic blood pressure, a marker of sympathetic activity to the vasculature, during the deep breathing test and cold pressor test were significantly lower on the low-calorie diet than the regular-calorie diet. The blood leptin concentration was also significantly lower on the low-calorie diet than the regular-calorie diet. The decrease in body weight was positively correlated with the decrease in blood leptin concentration. The LF/high frequency component (HF) ratio of the RR interval at rest on the regular-calorie diet was negatively correlated with the decrease in blood leptin concentration. These results suggest that the autonomic nervous function assessed by analysis of heart rate and blood pressure variability during stress tests may be improved by weight loss due to a short-term low-calorie diet in obese patients with hypertension.

  6. Effect of yoga on short-term heart rate variability measure as a stress index in subjunior cyclists: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Patil, Satish G; Mullur, Lata M; Khodnapur, Jyoti P; Dhanakshirur, Gopal B; Aithala, Manjunatha R

    2013-01-01

    Subjunior athletes experience mental stress due to pressure from the coach, teachers and parents for better performance. Stress, if remains for longer period and not managed appropriately can leads to negative physical, mental and cognitive impact on children. The present study was aimed to evaluate the effect of integrated yoga module on heart rate variability (HRV) measure as a stress index in subjunior cyclists. Fast furrier transform technique of frequency domain method was used for the analysis of HRV. We have found a significant increase in high frequency (HF) component by 14.64% (P < 0.05) and decrease in the low frequency component (LF) of HRV spectrum by 5.52% (P < 0.05) and a decrease in LF/HF ratio by 19.63% (P < 0.01) in yoga group. In the control group, there was decrease in the HF component and, no significant difference in the LF component of HRV spectrum and LF/HF ratio. The results show that yoga practice decreases sympathetic activity and causes a shift in the autonomic balance towards parasympathetic dominance indicating a reduction in stress. In conclusion, yoga practice helps to reduce stress by optimizing the autonomic functions. So, it is suggested to incorporate yoga module as a regular feature to keep subjunior athletes both mentally and physically fit.

  7. Reanalyses and Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Reanalyses are a potentially powerful climate data collection driven by observations but also subjected to model bias. Additionally, reanalyses can produce and use essential climate variables in a consistent method. For example, snow cover and soil moisture (among other variables) will eventually be assimilated into the reanalyses, but also provide crucial validation data. Sea surface temperature can be prescribed or assimilated in a coupled reanalysis. The strength of reanalysis lies in the ancillary data that is produced from the modeling components but not routinely observed thereby providing more complete Earth system information. The weakness in this concept is that the model derived data can be affected by model bias and may also change relative to the available observing system. Here, we will review the status of existing reanalyses and the ECVs being considered for the workshop. Purpose of Michael Bosilovich's contribution to the workshop: Michael Bosilovich will represent US reanalysis community in this international discussion of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the relative nature of reanalyses to ECVs.

  8. Response of planktonic cladocerans (Class: Branchiopoda) to short-term changes in environmental variables in the surface waters of the Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Elbée, Jean; Lalanne, Yann; Castège, Iker; Bru, Noelle; D'Amico, Frank

    2014-08-01

    From January 2001 to December 2008, 73 surface plankton samples and 45 vertical profiles of sea temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were collected on a monthly basis from a single sampling station located in the Bay of Biscay (43°37N; 1°43W) (North-East Atlantic). Two types of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indexes were included in the data set and submitted to a Canonical Correspondence Analysis and Spearman non-parametric test. Significant breaks and levels in time series were tested using a data segmentation method. The temperature range varies from 11 °C to 25 °C. It begins to rise from April until August and then decline. Low salinity values occur in mid-spring (<34 PSU) and high values (>36 PSU) in autumn. Dissolved oxygen mean values were around 8 mg/l. In summer, when temperature and salinity are high, surface water layer is always accompanied with a significant deoxygenation, and the process reverses in winter. pH mean values range was 7.78-8.33. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of the two NAO indexes are strongly correlated to one another, but do not correlate with any hydrological or biological variable. Five of the seven cladocerans species which are present in the Bay of Biscay were found in this study. There is a strong pattern in species succession throughout the year: Evadne nordmanni is a vernal species, while Penilia avirostris and Pseudevadne tergestina occur mainly in summer and autumn. Evadne spinifera has a maximum abundance in spring, Podon intermedius in autumn, but they both occur throughout the year. However, for some thirty years, the presence of species has tended to become significantly extended throughout the year. During the 2001-2008 period, there was a noticeable decline and even a disappearance of the categories involved in sexual reproduction as well as those involved in parthenogenesis, in favor of non-breeding individuals.

  9. Use of the low-frequency/high-frequency ratio of heart rate variability to predict short-term deterioration in emergency department patients with sepsis.

    PubMed

    Barnaby, Douglas P; Fernando, Shannon M; Ferrick, Kevin J; Herry, Christophe L; Seely, Andrew J E; Bijur, Polly E; Gallagher, E John

    2017-08-18

    To examine the ability of the low-frequency/high-frequency (LF/HF) ratio of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis to identify patients with sepsis at risk of early deterioration. This is a prospective observational cohort study of patients with sepsis presenting to the Montefiore Medical Center ED from December 2014 through September 2015. On presentation, a single ECG Holter recording was obtained and analysed to obtain the LF/HF ratio of HRV. Initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were computed. Patients were followed for 72 hours to identify those with early deterioration. 466 patients presenting to the ED with sepsis were analysed. Thirty-two (7%) reached at least one endpoint within 72 hours. An LF/HF ratio <1 had a sensitivity and specificity of 34% (95% CI (19% to 53%)) and 82% (95% CI (78% to 85%)), respectively, with positive and negative likelihood ratios of 1.9 (95% CI (1.1 to 3.2)) and 0.8 (95% CI (0.6 to 1.0)). An initial SOFA score ≥3 had a sensitivity and specificity of 38% (95% CI (22% to 56%)) and 92% (95% CI (89% to 95%)), with positive and negative likelihood ratios of 4.9 (95% CI (2.8 to 8.6)) and 0.7 (95% CI (0.5 to 0.9)). The composite measure of HRV+SOFA had improved sensitivity (56%, 95% CI (38% to 73%)) but at the expense of specificity (77%, 95% CI (72% to 80%)), with positive and negative likelihood ratios of 2.4 (95% CI (1.7 to 3.4)) and 0.6 (95% CI (0.4 to 0.9)). Receiver operating characteristic analysis did not identify a superior alternate threshold for the LF/HF ratio. Kaplan-Meier survival functions differed significantly (p=0.02) between low (<1) and high (≥1) LF/HF groups. While we found a statistically significant relationship between HRV, SOFA and HRV+SOFA, and early deterioration, none reliably functioned as a clinical predictive tool. More complex multivariable models will likely be required to construct models with clinical utility. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise

  10. Climate variability: The Atlantic's internal drum beat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2017-07-01

    The North Atlantic region experiences climate variability on a range of timescales. A climate reconstruction suggests that large-magnitude, multidecadal internal variability was a robust feature over the past 1,200 years.

  11. A novel 'splice site' HCN4 Gene mutation, c.1737+1 G>T, causes familial bradycardia, reduced heart rate response, impaired chronotropic competence and increased short-term heart rate variability.

    PubMed

    Hategan, Lidia; Csányi, Beáta; Ördög, Balázs; Kákonyi, Kornél; Tringer, Annamária; Kiss, Orsolya; Orosz, Andrea; Sághy, László; Nagy, István; Hegedűs, Zoltán; Rudas, László; Széll, Márta; Varró, András; Forster, Tamás; Sepp, Róbert

    2017-08-15

    The most important molecular determinant of heart rate regulation in sino-atrial pacemaker cells includes hyperpolarization-activated, cyclic nucleotide-gated ion channels, the major isoform of which is encoded by the HCN4 gene. Mutations affecting the HCN4 gene are associated primarily with sick sinus syndrome. A novel c.1737+1 G>T 'splice-site' HCN4 mutation was identified in a large family with familial bradycardia which co-segregated with the disease providing a two-point LOD score of 4.87. Twelve out of the 22 investigated family members [4 males, 8 females average age 36 (SD 6) years] were considered as clinically affected (heart rate<60/min on resting ECG). Minimum [36 (SD 7) vs. 47 (SD 5) bpm, p=0.0087) and average heart rates [62 (SD 8) vs. 73 (SD 8) bpm, p=0.0168) were significantly lower in carriers on 24-hour Holter recordings. Under maximum exercise test carriers achieved significantly lower heart rates than non-carrier family members, and percent heart rate reserve and percent corrected heart rate reserve were significantly lower in carriers. Applying rigorous criteria for chronotropic incompetence a higher number of carriers exhibited chronotropic incompetence. Parameters, characterizing short-term variability of heart rate (i.e. rMSSD and pNN50%) were increased in carrier family members, even after normalization for heart rate, in the 24-hour ECG recordings with the same relative increase in 5-minute recordings. The identified novel 'splice site' HCN4 gene mutation, c.1737+1 G>T, causes familial bradycardia and leads to reduced heart rate response, impaired chronotropic competence and increased short-term heart rate variability in the mutation carriers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Harnessing Historical Climate Variability to Assess Multivariate Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.; Aitken, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    Climate is intrinsically multivariate—the collective influence of various aspects of weather at different times of year. A central challenge of climate change impact analysis is therefore to characterize changes in multiple temperature and precipitation variables simultaneously. Historical climate variability provides key context for relating climate variables to each other and assessing collective deviations from historical climate conditions. We have developed a Mahalanobian probability metric to describe spatial and temporal climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability. Our approach is particularly suited to evaluation of climate analogs in space and time, but also facilitates multivariate extensions to several prominent indices of climate change. We use this metric to detect the departure of multivariate climate conditions from the historical range of local variability across North America and to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to emergence of no-analog climates. With respect to interpreting climate extremes, some critical considerations emerge from this research. In particular, we highlight the potential for temporal aggregation to exaggerate the statistical significance of extreme conditions, and the dilemma of identifying an appropriate statistical distribution for precipitation across both space and time. Despite the challenges of interpreting the specific impacts associated with multivariate climate changes and extremes, expressing these conditions relative to historical climate variability provides a useful first approximation of their ecological and socioeconomic significance. Figure Caption: Demonstration of the use of the chi distribution to measure spatial climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability.

  13. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  14. Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony

    Treesearch

    Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

    2017-01-01

    Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from...

  15. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  16. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  17. Short-term forecasting tools for agricultural nutrient management

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The advent of real time/short term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high performance computing and hydrologic/climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of ...

  18. Short-term intercultural psychotherapy: ethnographic inquiry.

    PubMed

    Seeley, Karen M

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical practice. Such approaches allow clinicians conducting short-term intercultural treatments to foreground clients' indigenous conceptions of selfhood, mind, relationship, and emotional disturbance, and thus to more fully grasp their internal, interpersonal, and external worlds. This article demonstrates the uses of clinically adapted ethnographic inquiry in three short-term intercultural cases.

  19. Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seeley, Karen M.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

  20. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  1. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurrell, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Folland, C. K.

    INTRODUCTION WHAT IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT REGIONAL - CLIMATE? WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS THAT GOVERN NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION VARIABILITY? Atmospheric Processes Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere CONCLUDING COMMENTS ON THE OTHER ASPECTS OF NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE - VARIABILITY REFERENCES

  3. Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity.

    PubMed

    Craine, Joseph M; Nippert, Jesse B; Elmore, Andrew J; Skibbe, Adam M; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Brunsell, Nathaniel A

    2012-02-28

    Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing.

  4. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook.

  5. Mesoscale flows and climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ólafsson, Haraldur; Pálmason, Bolli; Vary, Anne; Schettino, Camille; Thomas, Aurelien; Nína Petersen, Guðrún; Ágústsson, Hálfdán

    2016-04-01

    Thermally driven mesoscale flows, in particular the sea breeze, and their importance for the climate of a mid-latitude island is assessed by observations from Iceland and numerical simulations over idealized and real topography. Subsequently, an extended summertime period is simulated with surface conditions that correspond to current climate as well as surface conditions that are plausible in a future warmer climate with increased vegetation. A change in the albedo and the Bowen ratio results in changes in the sea breeze, leading to mean temperature changes whose magnitude is more than half the predicted temperature increase in the 21st Century by some GCMs.

  6. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  7. Short-term Drought Prediction in India.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, R.; Mishra, V.

    2014-12-01

    Medium range soil moisture drought forecast helps in decision making in the field of agriculture and water resources management. Part of skills in medium range drought forecast comes from precipitation. Proper evaluation and correction of precipitation forecast may improve drought predictions. Here, we evaluate skills of ensemble mean precipitation forecast from Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for medium range drought predictions over India. Climatological mean (CLIM) of historic data (OBS) are used as reference forecast to evaluate GEFS precipitation forecast. Analysis was conducted based on forecast initiated on 1st and 15th dates of each month for lead up to 7-days. Correlation and RMSE were used to estimate skill scores of accumulated GEFS precipitation forecast from lead 1 to 7-days. Volumetric indices based on the 2X2 contingency table were used to check missed and falsely predicted historic volume of daily precipitation from GEFS in different regions and at different thresholds. GEFS showed improvement in correlation of 0.44 over CLIM during the monsoon season and 0.55 during the winter season. Lower RMSE was showed by GEFS than CLIM. Ratio of RMSE in GEFS and CLIM comes out as 0.82 and 0.4 (perfect skill is at zero) during the monsoon and winter season, respectively. We finally used corrected GEFS forecast to derive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was used to develop short-term forecast of hydrologic and agricultural (soil moisture) droughts in India.

  8. Glaciological Evidence of Temporal and Spatial Tropical Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Buffen, A.

    2006-12-01

    variability in the southern Andes of Peru. An abrupt event, ~5200 years ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the world and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. The role of the ITCZ and ENSO in the short-term, as well as longer-term climate variability in the tropics will be discussed.

  9. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Joanna

    2013-03-01

    The need to distinguish natural from anthropogenic causes of climate change makes it important to understand and quantify any impact of the Sun. In this talk I will outline what is known about variations in solar output and review the evidence for solar influences on climate over a range of timescales. When the Sun is more active our work shows the response in temperature is not a warming of the tropics but mainly of mid-latitudes, along with a weakening and poleward shift of the jet streams and storm-tracks. Using climate models we have found that an important factor driving this response is the absorption in the stratosphere of solar UV radiation and we have identified a dynamical coupling mechanism which transfers a solar signal from the stratosphere to the atmosphere below. This means that simple assessments of the solar impact based on energy balance ideas may be effective in estimating global mean temperature change but might be neglecting important effects on regional climate. During the last solar cycle minimum the Sun was in a state of very low activity and some satellite measurements have suggested that the solar spectrum has been behaving in a strange and unexpected way. The talk will finish with a discussion of recent work on the implications of these spectral variations.

  10. Dependence of kinetic variables in the short-term release of Hg2+, Cu2+ and Zn2+ ions into synthetic saliva from an high-copper dental amalgam.

    PubMed

    Campus, Guglielmo; Garcia-Godoy, Franklin; Gaspa, Leonardo; Panzanelli, Angelo; Piu, Paola C; Micera, Giovanni; Lugliè, Pierfranca; Sanna, Gavino

    2007-08-01

    The short term (up to 14 days after restoration) release of selected ions (i.e., Hg(2+), Cu(2+) and Zn(2+)) from Dispersalloy into artificial saliva has been evaluated in regards to the nature of the saliva (Fusayama and McCarty and Shklar's solutions), the amount of amalgam, the time of contact and the periodical renewal (every 48 h interval) of artificial saliva. The evaluation of the ionic fraction of such metals has been accomplished by using anodic stripping methods (i.e., Differential Pulse Anodic Stripping Voltammetry, DPASV) with a 7 microm graphite disk microelectrode as a working electrode. Data obtained in this work are almost unprecedented in the literature due the fact that such analytical method exclude metals in non-ionic forms (e.g., metals or organometallic compounds). The high concentrations measured in every experimental condition confirm the concern for the short-term release of metals from amalgam into saliva.

  11. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    PubMed

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  12. Short-term energy outlook: Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornett, C.; Paxson, D.; Reznek, A. P.; Chu, C.; Sitzer, S.; Gamson, N.; Childress, J. P.; Paul, S.; Weigel, H.; Sutton, S.

    1981-05-01

    Detailed discussions of forecasting methodology and analytical topics concerning short-term energy markets are presented. Major assumptions necessary to make the energy forecasts are also discussed. Supplementary analyses of topics related to short-term energy forecasting are also given. The discussions relate to the forecasts prepared using the short term integrated forecasting system. This set of computer models uses data from various sources to develop energy supply and demand balances. Econmetric models used to predict the demand for petroleum products, natural gas, coal, and electricity are discussed. Price prediction models are also discussed. The role of oil inventories in world oil markets is reviewed. Various relationship between weather patterns and energy consumption are discussed.

  13. Theoretical models of synaptic short term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Hennig, Matthias H.

    2013-01-01

    Short term plasticity is a highly abundant form of rapid, activity-dependent modulation of synaptic efficacy. A shared set of mechanisms can cause both depression and enhancement of the postsynaptic response at different synapses, with important consequences for information processing. Mathematical models have been extensively used to study the mechanisms and roles of short term plasticity. This review provides an overview of existing models and their biological basis, and of their main properties. Special attention will be given to slow processes such as calcium channel inactivation and the effect of activation of presynaptic autoreceptors. PMID:23626536

  14. Reconstruction of Past Climatic Variability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-03-01

    United States. Extensive tree-ring sampling would be required In those areas to validate the revised hypothesis. In a similar vein, corn and wheat ...1910-1961. The tree-ring amplitudes were derived from the aforementioned 49-station network and formed the set of independent variables. The wheat ...Indices were based upon a weighted average of wheat production in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, and it is unclear

  15. Chaos, dynamical structure and climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Stewart, H.B.

    1995-09-01

    Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. Techniques for identifying deterministic chaos from observed data, without recourse to mathematical models, are being developed. Powerful methods exist for reconstructing multidimensional phase space from an observed time series of a single scalar variable; these methods are invaluable when only a single scalar record of the dynamics is available. However, in some applications multiple concurrent time series may be available for consideration as phase space coordinates. Here the authors propose some basic analytical tools for such multichannel time series data, and illustrate them by applications to a simple synthetic model of chaos, to a low-order model of atmospheric circulation, and to two high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data series. The atmospheric circulation model, originally proposed by Lorenz, has 27 principal unknowns; they establish that the chaotic attractor can be embedded in a subspace of eight dimensions by exhibiting a specific subset of eight unknowns which pass multichannel tests for false nearest neighbors. They also show that one of the principal unknowns in the 27-variable model--the global mean sea surface temperature--is of no discernible usefulness in making short-term forecasts.

  16. Metropolitan French: Familiarization & Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iszkowski, Marie-Charlotte

    The U.S. Department of State's Foreign Service Institute French Familiarization and Short-Term (FAST) course for personnel working and living in France consists of 10 weeks of French language instruction combined with practical and cultural information. An introductory section outlines FAST course objectives and sample teaching techniques in…

  17. Intercultural Learning on Short-Term Sojourns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Jane

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an ethnographic case study of advanced second language (L2) students from Hong Kong who took part in a short-term sojourn in England after 14 weeks of preparation. While abroad, they lived with a host family, took literary/cultural studies courses, visited cultural sites, participated in debriefing sessions, and conducted…

  18. Spanish: Familiarization and Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arbelaez, Vicente; And Others

    The State Department's Foreign Service Institute short-term, intensive course in Spanish language and culture for government employees going to work in Spanish-speaking countries contains an introductory section and 38 lessons and 10 related audio cassettes intended as the basis for a ten-week program with an instructor. The lessons cover these…

  19. Short-Term Play Therapy for Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaduson, Heidi Gerard, Ed.; Schaefer, Charles E., Ed.

    Play therapy offers a powerful means of helping children resolve a wide range of psychological difficulties, and many play approaches are ideally suited to short-term work. This book brings together leading play therapists to share their expertise on facilitating children's healing in a shorter time frame. The book provides knowledge and skills…

  20. Spanish: Familiarization and Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arbelaez, Vicente; And Others

    The State Department's Foreign Service Institute short-term, intensive course in Spanish language and culture for government employees going to work in Spanish-speaking countries contains an introductory section and 38 lessons and 10 related audio cassettes intended as the basis for a ten-week program with an instructor. The lessons cover these…

  1. Metropolitan French: Familiarization & Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iszkowski, Marie-Charlotte

    The U.S. Department of State's Foreign Service Institute French Familiarization and Short-Term (FAST) course for personnel working and living in France consists of 10 weeks of French language instruction combined with practical and cultural information. An introductory section outlines FAST course objectives and sample teaching techniques in…

  2. Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-Term

    MedlinePlus

    ... in Children and TeensRead MoreBMI Calculator Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-termJust about everyone has had a " ... time or another. But sudden severe abdominal pain (stomach pain), also called acute pain, shouldn't be ...

  3. Water-borne Infections, Weather Variability and Climate Change in Eastern Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tirrell, A.; Naumova, E. N.; Liss, A.

    2012-12-01

    For this project, a time-series analysis of existing data will be used to assess temporal and spatial associations between long-term, seasonal and short-term weather variability and water-borne infectious diseases in several Siberian municipalities. Building on these associations, we will generate estimates of future changes in infectious disease patterns based upon existing forecasts of climate change and likely increases in extreme weather events in Eastern Russia. Finally, we will contemplate the public health implications of these findings, and offer appropriate policy recommendations.

  4. Climatic Variability In Tropical Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seneviratne, L. W.

    2003-04-01

    atmospheric condition and hence reduces rainfall for about 1.5 years in tropical countries. This was proved in 2001. This forecast was presented as a paper in 1998 Stockholm Water Symposium. The results were true for Brazil as well. The danger is now over when the episode is relaxed. Second half of 2002 was heavily wet and all the tanks in Sri Lanka except Kirindioya complex in Hambanthoa area got filled. This condition was seen in 1997 where all tanks got filled. El Nino analysts declared 1997 as a drought year as the previous year had experienced warming in Pacific Ocean. Southern Oscillation events are now dissociating to conformity. Discussion Hambanthoa District remained in the dry zone of Sri Lanka for 2000 years as the soil forms expressed as reddish brown earths. Original kingdoms had its base in Anuradhapura in Northcentral Province and Magama in Hambanthota district. Tools used by contemporary farmers were not powerful to use enormous water resources in wet zone. A system of diversion dams and use of run of the river irrigation has proved as the main criteria of that era. Diversion dams and canal projects were in existence. The diversion dams with special shape was mistaken by british surveyors and marked as broken dams in plans. DLOMendis later identified these as effective deflecting dams. The purpose was to wet the area to do cultivation. This system of wetting the land was suitable for dry climates with low rainfall. High technology was introduced by Irrigation Department to construct several reservoirs in Hambanthota. This was planned after the insufficient water use of Ellagala anicut from Kirindi Oya. Next step was to plan a reservoir project at Lunugamvehera dam site. Precipitation data available for 50 years were studied and a reservoir was designed for 20 000acres of paddy. It was planned to cultivate rice for Maha season and other field crops for Yala season. Cultivation commenced in 1985 and the farmers had enough water for 20000acres including

  5. Short-term solar activity forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie-Zhen, C.; Ai-Di, Z.

    1979-01-01

    A method of forecasting the level of activity of every active region on the surface of the Sun within one to three days is proposed in order to estimate the possibility of the occurrence of ionospheric disturbances and proton events. The forecasting method is a probability process based on statistics. In many of the cases, the accuracy in predicting the short term solar activity was in the range of 70%, although there were many false alarms.

  6. The economics of short-term leasing.

    PubMed

    Flath, D

    1980-04-01

    Short-term leasing is an everyday occurrence. Tax savings cannot account for the ubiquity of leasing by temporary users. Monopoly explanations are inconsistent with concurrent leasing and selling markets for perfect substitutes. Leasing economizes upon the costs of detecting, assuring, and maintaining quality, costs of search, and costs of risk-bearing. This view is based on standard economic reasoning and has numerous specific implications.

  7. North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Biondi, Franco; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

    2001-01-01

    Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the twentieth century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California extends the instrumental record and reveals decadal-scale variability back to 1661. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability that provides a preliminary view of multiannual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late l700s to mid-1800s. A comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947.

  8. Short-term memory: a brief commentary.

    PubMed

    Shiffrin, R M

    1993-03-01

    Over the years, a metatheoretical view of short-term memory has developed. This view, closely related to the "modal" model from the 1960s, is supported by an increasing base of neurophysiological data, and a wide variety of empirical findings. It treats short-term memory as (1) the temporary, above threshold, activation of neural structures (related in not-too-well-specified ways to various recency effects); (2) a work space for carrying out virtually all cognitive operations involved in human cognition; and (3) the source of capacity limitations, accounting for certain memory limitations and most attentional limitations. The main problem with this view is the fact that it encompasses virtually everything that we are concerned with in human cognition--a successful model would almost be a general model of cognition, something the field has not yet approached. This situation is not grounds for despair. Progress is being made on many fronts, notwithstanding the fact that the most successful models are focused on specific task domains. Recent advances include an increasing awareness of the necessity for detailed models of short-term retrieval, a theme reflected in a number of articles in the present collection.

  9. Mediterranean dunes on the go: Evidence from a short term study on coastal herbaceous vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prisco, Irene; Stanisci, Angela; Acosta, Alicia T. R.

    2016-12-01

    Detailed monitoring studies on permanent sites are a promising tool for an accurate evaluation of short, medium or long term vegetation dynamics. This work aims to evaluate short-term changes in coastal dune herbaceous plant species and EU Habitats through a multi-temporal analysis using permanent vegetation transects. In particular, (I) we analyze changes in species richness of coastal habitats; (II) we identify changes in plant cover of selected focal plants; and (III) we relate the changes to selected climatic variables and erosion/accretion processes. We selected one of the Italian's peninsula best preserved coastal dune areas (ca. 50 km along the Adriatic sea) with a relatively homogeneous coastal zonation and low anthropic pressure but with different erosion/accretion processes. We explored changes in richness over time using generalized linear models (GLMs). We identified different ecological guilds: focal, ruderal and alien plant species and investigated temporal trends in these guilds' species richness. We also applied GLMs to determine how plant cover of the most important focal species have changed over time. Overall, in this study we observed that the influence of climatic variables was relatively small. However, we found remarkable different trends in response to erosion/accretion processes both at community and at species level. Thus, our results highlight the importance of coastal dynamics in preserving not only coastal vegetation zonation, but also species richness and focal species cover. Moreover, we identified the dune grasslands as the most sensitive habitat for detecting the influence of climatic variables throughout a short term monitoring survey. Information from this study provides useful insights for detecting changes in vegetation, for establishing habitat protection priorities and for improving conservation efforts for these fragile ecosystems.

  10. Weather variability, climatic change, and soybean production

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, L.M.

    1985-01-01

    A crop/weather model was used to determine the effect of changing climate and weather variability on soybean production in the Corn Belt. A cooling trend from the 1930s to the 1970s was accompanied by an upward trend in July plus August rainfall. There was decreased weather variability from the 1930s to 1973 and greatly increased weather variability after 1973. Improved weather from 1930 to 1972 increased soybean yields 3 bushels/acre. Higher intensity rainfalls increased in Illinois and Iowa after 1970.

  11. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

    2013-12-01

    Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and

  12. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  13. Differentiating Climatic Variability with Multi - Permutation Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Law-Evans, Elizabeth

    It is hypothesized that a Multi-Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP) can be developed which can detect changes in natural time series. A companion hypothesis is that climatic and hydrologic changes have occurred in historical time in watersheds in Colorado and northern New Mexico. The non-parametric nature of MRPP precludes normality assumptions required by many techniques. The MRPP technique was applied to historical climatic and hydrologic time series (annual air temperature and snowfall; annual and monthly precipitation and streamflow). A variation of the MRPP technique was adapted, termed "moving-MRPP". The moving-MRPP marched the MRPP analyses through the series in a fashion similar to a moving average. The use of non-normal values brought about the greatest improvement between the results from the moving -MRPP technique with a distance exponent of one (v = 1) and the squared distance exponent (v = 2; used in "normal" or "classical" statistics such as standard deviation). Using moving-MRPP as an exploratory technique, seven meteorological and two streamflow sites in Colorado and New Mexico were studied. Analysis of the sites' historical records suggested region-wide changes in variability during the period of record which agreed with published dates and types of changes in hemispheric circulation regimes. Two changes in variability are especially noticeable: first, a period of low climatic variability from the early 1920s to the mid 1950s. Second, a period of highly variable conditions from the mid 1970s to 1986.

  14. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    PubMed Central

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

  15. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  16. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability.

    PubMed

    Ray, Deepak K; Gerber, James S; MacDonald, Graham K; West, Paul C

    2015-01-22

    Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

  17. Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Dole, Randall; vandenDool, Huug; Suarez, Max; Waliser, Duane

    2002-01-01

    This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

  18. Prioritizing Global Observations Along Essential Climate Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bojinski, Stephan; Richter, Carolin

    2010-12-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat, housed within the World Meteorological Organization, released in August 2010 updated guidance for priority actions worldwide in support of observations of GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). This guidance states that full achievement of the recommendations in the 2010 Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos­138.pdf) is required to ensure that countries are able to understand and predict climate change and its impacts and manage their response throughout the 21st century and beyond. GCOS is sponsored by the United Nations and the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is an internationally coordinated network of observing systems and a program of activities that support and improve the network, which is designed to meet evolving national and international requirements for climate observations. One of the main objectives of GCOS is to sustain observations into the future to allow evaluation of how climate is changing, so that informed decisions can be made on prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. GCOS priorities are based on the belief that observations are crucial to supporting the research needed to refine understanding of the climate system and its changes, to initialize predictions on time scales out to decades, and to develop the models used to make these predictions and longer­term scenario-based projections. Observations are also needed to assess social and economic vulnerabilities and to support related actions needed across a broad range of societal sectors by underpinning emerging climate services.

  19. Climatic Variability of Hurricane-Size Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osso, A.

    2008-12-01

    The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (roughly speaking, hurricanes, or simply, storms) is a complex issue,which faces the extra complication of the relative lack of reliability of the existing databases. But a more fundamental hindrance in order to address this problem is the absence of a basic understanding of the intrinsic nature of tropical-cyclone genesis and evolution. It is known that tropical cyclones are not just a passive response to changing external forcing, but it is not clear which kind of dynamical process tropical cyclones define. In this presentation, we discuss different measures of hurricane size and study their fluctuations in successive occurrences. The changes of these statistical properties in different climatic conditions can shed light on hurricane variability.

  20. Response of middle atmosphere to short-term solar ultraviolet variations: 1. observations

    SciTech Connect

    Keating, G.M.; Pitts, M.C.; Brasseur, G.; De Rudder, A.

    1987-01-20

    A series of studies were performed concerning the response of low-latitude ozone and temperature in the stratosphere and mesosphere to short-term solar ultraviolet variability associated with the rotation of the sun.

  1. Climate variability and the European agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Hunink, Johannes E.; Baruth, Bettina; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2017-04-01

    By 2050, the global demand for maize, wheat and other major crops is expected to grow sharply. To meet this challenge, agricultural systems have to increase substantially their production. However, the expanding world population, coupled with a decline of arable land per person, and the variability in global climate, are obstacles to achieving the increasing demand. Creating a resilient agriculture system requires the incorporation of preparedness measures against weather-related events, which can trigger disruptive risks such as droughts. This study examines the influence of large-scale climate variability on agriculture production applying a robust decision-making tool named fast-and-frugal trees (FFT). We created FFTs using a dataset of crop production and indices of climate variability: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our main goal is to predict the occurrence of below-average crop production, using these two indices at different lead times. Initial results indicated that SOI and NAO have strong links with European low sugar beet production. For some areas, the FFTs were able to detect below-average productivity events six months before harvesting with hit rate and predictive positive value higher than 70%. We found that shorter lead times, such as three months before harvesting, have the highest predictive skill. Additionally, we observed that the responses of low production events to the phases of the NAO and SOI vary spatially and seasonally. Through the comprehension of the relationship between large scale climate variability and European drought related agricultural impact, this study reflects on how this information could potentially improve the management of the agricultural sector by coupling the findings with seasonal forecasting system of crop production.

  2. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalaacchi, Antonio J.

    1998-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  3. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  4. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  5. Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalaacchi, Antonio J.

    1998-01-01

    Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

  6. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  7. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    PubMed

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.

  8. Multiscale Variability of the Monsoon Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishnamurthy, V.

    2005-05-01

    The reliability of weather forecasts is limited to a few days and is mainly determined by the synoptic scale features of the atmosphere. The predictability of weather models depends on the error growth determined by nonlinear terms representing advection. Smaller scale features, such as convection, may also influence the predictability of the synoptic scale forecasts. While the prediction of instantaneous states of the system may be impossible on longer time scale, there is optimism for medium-range and long-range forecasts of time-averaged features of the climate system. Such optimism is based on the observation that slowly-varying boundary forces such as sea surface temperature, soil moisture and snow influence the variability of the atmosphere on a longer time scale, especially in the tropical region. This study discusses the variability of such a tropical climate system, the monsoon, and shows that its variability consists of a combination of large-scale persistent seasonal mean component and intraseasonal variability of different time scales. The spatial variability of these components is also found to consist of different scales. By performing multi-channel singular spectrum analysis of daily rainfall, low-pressure systems, outgoing long-wave radiation and winds, two oscillatory modes with periods of about 45 and 20 days have been identified and shown to correspond to the active and break phases of the monsoon. These two intraseasonal modes, however, do not contribute much to the seasonal mean rainfall. Three other components of the MSSA are identified as the contributors to the seasonal mean rainfall, possibly arising from the influence of slowly-varying boundary forces. The prospect for making accurate long-range forecasts of the monsoon depends on the relative magnitudes of the large-scale seasonally persistent component and the intraseasonal component and on climate model experiments to establish a relation between the two components.

  9. Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission.

    PubMed

    Tong, S; Bi, P; Donald, K; McMichael, A J

    2002-08-01

    (1) To examine the feasibility to link climate data with monthly incidence of Ross River virus (RRv). (2) To assess the impact of climate variability on the RRv transmission. An ecological time series analysis was performed on the data collected between 1985 to 1996 in Queensland, Australia. Information on the notified RRv cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spearman's rank correlation analyses were performed to examine the relation between climate variability and the monthly incidence of notified RRv infections. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to perform a time series analysis. As maximum and minimum temperatures were highly correlated with each other (r(s)=0.75), two separate models were developed. For the eight major cities in Queensland, the climate-RRv correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.12 to 0.52 for maximum and minimum temperatures, -0.10 to 0.46 for rainfall, and 0.11 to 0.52 for relative humidity and high tide. For the whole State, rainfall (partial regression coefficient: 0.017 (95% confidence intervals 0.009 to 0.025) in Model I and 0.018 (0.010 to 0.026) in Model II), and high tidal level (0.030 (0.006 to 0.054) in Model I and 0.029 (0.005 to 0.053) in Model II) seemed to have played significant parts in the transmission of RRv in Queensland. Maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with the incidence of RRv infection. Rainfall, temperature, and tidal levels may be important environmental determinants in the transmission cycles of RRv disease.

  10. Short term dynamics of the debris-covered Miage Glacier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fyffe, Catriona; Brock, Ben; Kirkbride, Martin; Mair, Doug; Smiraglia, Claudio; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina

    2016-04-01

    Due to the often inaccessible nature of debris-covered glaciers, studies of their dynamics tend to be restricted to those using remotely sensed data. This paper presents data on the short-term glacier dynamics of the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Western Italian Alps. The glacier velocity was calculated from repeat occupation of up to 22 points using a differential GPS system over two melt seasons. Meteorological, hydrological and water chemistry data were collected over the same time periods, and the nature of the hydrological system was studied using dye tracing, to allow the short term variations in glacier dynamics to be understood in terms of the likely glacial drainage system and its evolution. The highest glacier velocities and the greatest velocity variability was found near to where a cluster of moulins enter the glacier, close to the limit of continuous debris cover. The melt from the clean and dirty ice occasionally led to inputs overcoming the channelized system (both in spring and mid-summer), leading to increased velocities. On the debris-covered lower glacier however velocities were lower and less variable, and significant speed-up was confined to a period when subglacial water was thought to have been transferred subglacially from higher upglacier. The subdued sub-debris melt signal is thought to be the cause of the reduced velocity variability, in spite of the hydrological system beneath this part of the glacier remaining inefficient.

  11. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    DOEpatents

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  12. Writing and overwriting short-term memory

    PubMed Central

    Killeen, Peter R.

    2008-01-01

    An integrative account of short-term memory is based on data from pigeons trained to report the majority color in a sequence of lights. Performance showed strong recency effects, was invariant over changes in the interstimulus interval, and improved with increases in the intertrial interval. A compound model of binomial variance around geometrically decreasing memory described the data; a logit transformation rendered it isomorphic with other memory models. The model was generalized for variance in the parameters, where it was shown that averaging exponential and power functions from individuals or items with different decay rates generates new functions that are hyperbolic in time and in log time, respectively. The compound model provides a unified treatment of both the accrual and the dissipation of memory and is consistent with data from various experiments, including the choose-short bias in delayed recall, multielement stimuli, and Rubin and Wenzel’s (1996) meta-analyses of forgetting. PMID:11340865

  13. Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klee, H.

    The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

  14. Vitreon, a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade.

    PubMed Central

    Blinder, K J; Peyman, G A; Desai, U R; Nelson, N C; Alturki, W; Paris, C L

    1992-01-01

    This investigation of the liquid perfluorocarbon, perfluorophenanthrene (Vitreon), establishes its safety and efficacy as a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade. We utilised Vitreon as an intraoperative tool and postoperative vitreoretinal tamponade in 16 patients. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) (six), giant retinal tear (four), rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (three), retinal detachment with keratoprosthesis (two), and submacular and vitreous haemorrhage (one) were successfully repaired. Vitreon was left in the eye and removed 5 days to 4 weeks postoperatively. Complications encountered included proliferative PVR (five), limited peripheral retinal detachment (three), macular pucker (two) cataract (three), hypotony (two), excessive fibrin reaction (one), and elevated intraocular pressure (one). At the latest evaluation, all retinas are attached with a follow-up of 1.25 to 12 months (mean 6.8 months). PMID:1420054

  15. Short Term Forecasting of Cloud and Precipitation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-01-15

    economical procedure for Cartesian interpolation and display of reflectivity factor data in three-dimensional space. J. Appl. Meteorol. 18:661-670. 3...C4 r 1 0 0 s.. C-CMC C zc @0i -9 Cr- a* CD f- 0c Lq CC! Y C Lq CL LO 0 - M c C# CL C- V- Lei i a; C- cc Li co p1 CL C N~ CV mCq L 64 LIn c a;fi OLn fr...Short Term Forecasting of Cloud and Precipitation, AFGL-TR-85-0343. AD A169744. 3. Mohr, C.G. and Vaughan, R. (1979) An economical procedure for

  16. Climate variability and Port wine quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    ), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva

  17. Climate variability and migration in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Bohra-Mishra, Pratikshya; Oppenheimer, Michael; Cai, Ruohong; Feng, Shuaizhang; Licker, Rachel

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.

  18. Marathon Running May Cause Short-Term Kidney Injury

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_164324.html Marathon Running May Cause Short-Term Kidney Injury But ... of endurance are also tough on the kidneys. "Marathon runners demonstrate transient or reverse short-term kidney ...

  19. Short-Term Lifestyle Strategies for Sustaining Cognitive Status

    PubMed Central

    Morris, John N.; Steel, Knight; Strout, Kelley A.; Fries, Brant E.; Moore, Alice; Garms-Homolová, Vjenka

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive decline impacts older adults, particularly their independence. The goal of this project was to increase understanding of how short-term, everyday lifestyle options, including physical activity, help an older adult sustain cognitive independence. Using a secondary analysis of lifestyle choices, we drew on a dataset of 4,620 community-dwelling elders in the US, assessed at baseline and one year later using 2 valid and reliable tools, the interRAI Community Health Assessment and the interRAI Wellness tool. Decline or no decline on the Cognitive Performance Scale was the dependent variable. We examined sustaining one's status on this measure over a one-year period in relation to key dimensions of wellness through intellectual, physical, emotional, social, and spiritual variables. Engaging in physical activity, formal exercise, and specific recreational activities had a favorable effect on short-term cognitive decline. Involvement with computers, crossword puzzles, handicrafts, and formal education courses also were protective factors. The physical and intellectual domains of wellness are prominent aspects in protection from cognitive decline. Inherent in these two domains are mutable factors suitable for targeted efforts to promote older adult health and well-being. PMID:27891520

  20. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  3. Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

  4. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  5. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  6. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

  7. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

  8. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  9. Local-scale spatial modelling for interpolating climatic temperature variables to predict agricultural plant suitability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Mathew A.; Hall, Andrew; Kidd, Darren; Minansy, Budiman

    2016-05-01

    Assessment of local spatial climatic variability is important in the planning of planting locations for horticultural crops. This study investigated three regression-based calibration methods (i.e. traditional versus two optimized methods) to relate short-term 12-month data series from 170 temperature loggers and 4 weather station sites with data series from nearby long-term Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate stations. The techniques trialled to interpolate climatic temperature variables, such as frost risk, growing degree days (GDDs) and chill hours, were regression kriging (RK), regression trees (RTs) and random forests (RFs). All three calibration methods produced accurate results, with the RK-based calibration method delivering the most accurate validation measures: coefficients of determination ( R 2) of 0.92, 0.97 and 0.95 and root-mean-square errors of 1.30, 0.80 and 1.31 °C, for daily minimum, daily maximum and hourly temperatures, respectively. Compared with the traditional method of calibration using direct linear regression between short-term and long-term stations, the RK-based calibration method improved R 2 and reduced root-mean-square error (RMSE) by at least 5 % and 0.47 °C for daily minimum temperature, 1 % and 0.23 °C for daily maximum temperature and 3 % and 0.33 °C for hourly temperature. Spatial modelling indicated insignificant differences between the interpolation methods, with the RK technique tending to be the slightly better method due to the high degree of spatial autocorrelation between logger sites.

  10. Regression based modeling of vegetation and climate variables for the Amazon rainforests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kodali, A.; Khandelwal, A.; Ganguly, S.; Bongard, J.; Das, K.

    2015-12-01

    Both short-term (weather) and long-term (climate) variations in the atmosphere directly impact various ecosystems on earth. Forest ecosystems, especially tropical forests, are crucial as they are the largest reserves of terrestrial carbon sink. For example, the Amazon forests are a critical component of global carbon cycle storing about 100 billion tons of carbon in its woody biomass. There is a growing concern that these forests could succumb to precipitation reduction in a progressively warming climate, leading to release of significant amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Therefore, there is a need to accurately quantify the dependence of vegetation growth on different climate variables and obtain better estimates of drought-induced changes to atmospheric CO2. The availability of globally consistent climate and earth observation datasets have allowed global scale monitoring of various climate and vegetation variables such as precipitation, radiation, surface greenness, etc. Using these diverse datasets, we aim to quantify the magnitude and extent of ecosystem exposure, sensitivity and resilience to droughts in forests. The Amazon rainforests have undergone severe droughts twice in last decade (2005 and 2010), which makes them an ideal candidate for the regional scale analysis. Current studies on vegetation and climate relationships have mostly explored linear dependence due to computational and domain knowledge constraints. We explore a modeling technique called symbolic regression based on evolutionary computation that allows discovery of the dependency structure without any prior assumptions. In symbolic regression the population of possible solutions is defined via trees structures. Each tree represents a mathematical expression that includes pre-defined functions (mathematical operators) and terminal sets (independent variables from data). Selection of these sets is critical to computational efficiency and model accuracy. In this work we investigate

  11. Short-term GNSS satellite clock stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griggs, E.; Kursinski, E. R.; Akos, D.

    2015-08-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) clock stability is characterized via the modified Allan deviation using active hydrogen masers as the receiver frequency reference. The high stability of the maser reference allows the GNSS clock contribution to the GNSS carrier phase variance to be determined quite accurately. Satellite clock stability for four different GNSS constellations are presented, highlighting the similarities and differences between the constellations as well as satellite blocks and clock types. Impact on high-rate applications, such as GNSS radio occultation (RO), is assessed through the calculation of the maximum carrier phase error due to clock instability. White phase noise appears to dominate at subsecond time scales. However, while we derived the theoretical contribution of white phase modulation to the modified Allan deviation, our analysis of the GNSS satellite clocks was limited to 1-200 s time scales because of inconsistencies between the subsecond results from the commercial and software-defined receivers. The rubidium frequency standards on board the Global Positioning System (GPS) Block IIF, BeiDou, and Galileo satellites show improved stability results in comparison to previous GPS blocks for time scales relevant to RO. The Globalnaya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) satellites are the least stable of the GNSS constellations in the short term and will need high-rate corrections to produce RO results comparable to those from the other GNSS constellations.

  12. Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, Jeffery G.; Dwyer, John L.; Roy, David P.

    2011-01-01

    As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record.

  13. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  14. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations.

    PubMed

    Binda, Paola; Lunghi, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark) and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements), slow pupil oscillations, "hippus," spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry). This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure) provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity.

  15. Gaze direction affects visuo-spatial short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Carlei, Christophe; Kerzel, Dirk

    2014-10-01

    Hemispheric asymmetries were investigated by changing the horizontal position of stimuli that had to be remembered in a visuo-spatial short-term memory task. Observers looked at matrices containing a variable number of filled squares on the left or right side of the screen center. At stimulus offset, participants reproduced the positions of the filled squares in an empty response matrix. Stimulus and response matrices were presented in the same quadrant. We observed that memory performance was better when the matrices were shown on the left side of the screen. We distinguished between recall strategies that relied on visual or non-visual (verbal) cues and found that the effect of gaze position occurred more reliably in participants using visual recall strategies. Overall, the results show that there is a solid enhancement of visuo-spatial short-term memory when observers look to the left. In contrast, vertical position had no influence on performance. We suggest that unilateral gaze to the left activates centers in the right hemisphere contributing to visuo-spatial memory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Binda, Paola

    2017-01-01

    Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark) and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements), slow pupil oscillations, “hippus,” spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry). This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure) provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity. PMID:28163935

  17. A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique.

    PubMed

    Milani, Mohammad Reza Marami; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2015-09-11

    This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002-2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.

  18. A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique

    PubMed Central

    Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza; Hense, Andreas; Rahmani, Elham; Ploeger, Angelika

    2015-01-01

    This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data. PMID:28231215

  19. Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P.C.D.; Jaffe, Peter R.

    2016-01-01

    Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

  20. Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P. C. D.; Jaffé, Peter R.

    2016-07-01

    Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr-1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.

  1. Characterization of Millennial-Scale Climate Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roe, Gerard H.; Steig, Eric J.

    2004-05-01

    The oxygen isotope time series from ice cores in central Greenland [the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) and the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP)] and West Antarctica (Byrd) provide a basis for evaluating the behavior of the climate system on millennial time scales. These time series have been invoked as evidence for mechanisms such as an interhemispheric climate seesaw or a stochastic resonance process. Statistical analyses are used to evaluate the extent to which these mechanisms characterize the observed time series. Simple models in which the Antarctic record reflects the Greenland record or its integral are statistically superior to a model in which the two time series are unrelated. However, these statistics depend primarily on the large events in the earlier parts of the record (between 80 and 50 kyr BP). For the shorter, millennial-scale (Dansgaard Oeschger) events between 50 and 20 kyr BP, a first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] stochastic climate model with a physical time scale of τ = 600 ± 300 yr is a self-consistent explanation for the Antarctic record. For Greenland, AR(1) with τ = 400 ± 200 yr, plus a simple threshold rule, provides a statistically comparable characterization to stochastic resonance (though it cannot account for the strong 1500-yr spectral peak). The similarity of the physical time scales underlying the millennial-scale variability provides sufficient explanation for the similar appearance of the Greenland and Antarctic records during the 50 20-kyr BP interval. However, it cannot be ruled out that improved cross dating for these records may strengthen the case for an interhemispheric linkage on these shorter time scales. Additionally, the characteristic time scales for the records are significantly shorter during the most recent 10 kyr. Overall, these results suggest that millennial-scale variability is determined largely by regional processes that change significantly between glacial and interglacial climate regimes, with

  2. Short-term variability and nocturnal decline in ambulatory blood pressure in normotension, white-coat hypertension, masked hypertension and sustained hypertension: a population-based study of older individuals in Spain.

    PubMed

    Gijón-Conde, Teresa; Graciani, Auxiliadora; López-García, Esther; Guallar-Castillón, Pilar; García-Esquinas, Esther; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Banegas, José R

    2017-06-01

    Blood pressure (BP) variability and nocturnal decline in blood pressure are associated with cardiovascular outcomes. However, little is known about whether these indexes are associated with white-coat and masked hypertension. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1047 community-dwelling individuals aged ⩾60 years in Spain in 2012. Three observer-measured home BPs and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) were performed under standardized conditions. BP variability was defined as BP s.d. and coefficient of variation. Differences in BP variability and nocturnal BP decrease between groups were adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical covariates using generalized linear models. Of the cohort, 21.7% had white-coat hypertension, 7.0% had masked hypertension, 21.4% had sustained hypertension, and 49.9% were normotensive. Twenty-four hour, daytime and night-time systolic BP s.d. and coefficients of variation were significantly higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension than those with normotension (P<0.05) and were similar to subjects with sustained hypertension. In untreated subjects, 24-h but not daytime or night-time BP variability indexes were significantly higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension than in those with normotension (P<0.05). Percentage decrease in nocturnal systolic and diastolic BP was greatest in the white-coat hypertension group and lowest in the masked hypertension group in all patients and untreated patients (P<0.05). Lack of nocturnal decline in systolic blood pressure was observed in 70.2% of subjects with normotension, 57.8% of subjects with white-coat hypertension, 78.1% of subjects with masked hypertension, and 72.2% of subjects with sustained hypertension (P<0.001). In conclusion, 24-h BP variability was higher in subjects with white-coat hypertension and blunted nocturnal BP decrease was observed more frequently in subjects with masked hypertension. These findings may help to explain the reports of increased

  3. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone.

    PubMed

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-03-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Niño), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO(x) emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  4. Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Feigin, Alexander; Loskutov, Evgeny; Kurths, Juergen

    2015-01-01

    We suggest a new nonlinear expansion of space-distributed observational time series. The expansion allows constructing principal nonlinear manifolds holding essential part of observed variability. It yields low-dimensional hidden time series interpreted as internal modes driving observed multivariate dynamics as well as their mapping to a geographic grid. Bayesian optimality is used for selecting relevant structure of nonlinear transformation, including both the number of principal modes and degree of nonlinearity. Furthermore, the optimal characteristic time scale of the reconstructed modes is also found. The technique is applied to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) time series having a duration of 33 years and covering the globe. Three dominant nonlinear modes were extracted from the time series: the first efficiently separates the annual cycle, the second is responsible for ENSO variability, and combinations of the second and the third modes explain substantial parts of Pacific and Atlantic dynamics. A relation of the obtained modes to decadal natural climate variability including current hiatus in global warming is exhibited and discussed. PMID:26489769

  5. Variations of solar UV irradiance related to short-term and medium-term changes of solar activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troshichev, O. A.; Gabis, I. P.

    1998-09-01

    Index of variability of the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, the composite Mg II core-to-wing ratio, has been used to study relationship between the short-term (τ<27days) changes of solar activity and solar UV irradiance. Such manifestations of the solar activity have been examined, as the solar central meridian passage of active regions, the solar proton events, and the central meridian passage of hypothetical regions responsible for the Forbush decrease in the galactic cosmic rays. Our results show that all these short-term changes of the solar activity are accompanied by an increase of the solar UV irradiance. The interplanetary magnetic field sector structure is also related to changes in the UV irradiance. After a proper adjustment of the dates of the sector boundary occurrence for the solar disk, the irradiance was found to be maximal on the toward/away boundary and minimal on the away/toward boundary. It has been found that the UV irradiance undergoes quasi-biennial periodicity (QBP), reaching maximum in years of the east QBP phase and decreasing in years of the west QBP phase. Superposition of the quasi-biennial periodicity and effects connected with short-term variations in the solar activity account for the change of the Mg II index up to 2% of the mean level. Thus a new very important agent was found to be responsible for a short-term and medium-term influence of the solar activity upon atmospheric processes and hence on the weather and climate.

  6. An integrated approach based on uniform quantization for the evaluation of complexity of short-term heart period variability: Application to 24 h Holter recordings in healthy and heart failure humans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porta, A.; Faes, L.; Masé, M.; D'Addio, G.; Pinna, G. D.; Maestri, R.; Montano, N.; Furlan, R.; Guzzetti, S.; Nollo, G.; Malliani, A.

    2007-03-01

    We propose an integrated approach based on uniform quantization over a small number of levels for the evaluation and characterization of complexity of a process. This approach integrates information-domain analysis based on entropy rate, local nonlinear prediction, and pattern classification based on symbolic analysis. Normalized and non-normalized indexes quantifying complexity over short data sequences (˜300 samples) are derived. This approach provides a rule for deciding the optimal length of the patterns that may be worth considering and some suggestions about possible strategies to group patterns into a smaller number of families. The approach is applied to 24h Holter recordings of heart period variability derived from 12 normal (NO) subjects and 13 heart failure (HF) patients. We found that: (i) in NO subjects the normalized indexes suggest a larger complexity during the nighttime than during the daytime; (ii) this difference may be lost if non-normalized indexes are utilized; (iii) the circadian pattern in the normalized indexes is lost in HF patients; (iv) in HF patients the loss of the day-night variation in the normalized indexes is related to a tendency of complexity to increase during the daytime and to decrease during the nighttime; (v) the most likely length L =3 indicates that stable patterns (i.e., those with no variations) are more present during the daytime, while highly variable patterns (i.e., those with two unlike variations) are more frequent during the nighttime; (vii) during the daytime in HF patients, the percentage of highly variable patterns increases with respect to NO subjects, while during the nighttime, the percentage of patterns with one or two like variations decreases.

  7. Multidecadal climate variability and climate interactions affect subalpine fire occurrence, western Colorado (USA).

    PubMed

    Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T; Kulakowski, Dominik; Holz, Andrés

    2007-11-01

    This study investigates the influence of climatic variability on subalpine forest fire occurrence in western Colorado during the AD 1600-2003 period. Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions among these oscillations. Fires occurred during short-term periods of significant drought and extreme cool (negative) phases of ENSO and PDO and during positive departures from mean AMO index. At longer time scales, fires exhibited 20-year periods of synchrony with the cool phase of the PDO, and 80-year periods of synchrony with extreme warm (positive) phases of the AMO. Years of combined positive AMO and negative ENSO and PDO phases represent "triple whammies" that significantly increased the occurrence of drought-induced fires. Fires were synchronous with this phase combination over 0-30 year periods and distinctly asynchronous with the opposite phase combination. Overall, because fires are synchronous at supra-annual to multidecadal time scales with warm AMO events, particularly when combined with cool ENSO and PDO phases, this suggests that we may be entering a qualitatively different fire regime in the next few decades due to the recent shift in 1998 to a likely long-term warm AMO phase. Although uncertainty remains regarding the effects of CO2-induced warming at regional scales, given the multidecadal persistence of the AMO there is mounting evidence that the recent shift to the positive phase of the AMO will promote higher fire frequencies in the region.

  8. Using Remote Sensing to Understand Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, J.; Gentine, P.

    2014-12-01

    While a major source of uncertainty in global climate model predictions is due to the coarseness of their resolution, a significant amount of error is also generated due to the lack of information regarding the interactions between atmospheric and land parameters over time. When the behavior of a certain parameter is not clearly understood it is frequently estimated as one specific value while in reality it may vary with time and space. Remote sensing is allowing researchers to better estimate each of these parameters so one can see how they change with time. This study is an effort to improve our knowledge of the inter-annual and seasonal variability in radiation, water and the carbon cycle using remote sensing products on a global scale. By examining monthly data over a multi-year period (data parameter and source are listed in Table 1) for fluorescence, groundwater, net radiation, vegetation indices, precipitation, soil moisture and evapotranspiration, we should be able to determine the behavior and interactions between these parameters and better understand how they vary together seasonally, annually and year to year. With this information it is our hope that global climate models can be improved to better understand what is occurring climatologically in the present as well as more accurately make predictions about future conditions. Table 1. Parameters and Sources Parameter Source Fluorescence Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT)1 Groundwater Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Net Radiation Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Vegetation Indices Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/ Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Precipitation Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Soil Moisture Water Cycle Mutimission Observation Strategy (WACMOS) Evapotranspiration Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM) 1In future work, we hope to use fluorescence data from

  9. Impact of medication adherence on absenteeism and short-term disability for five chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Carls, Ginger S; Roebuck, M Christopher; Brennan, Troyen A; Slezak, Julie A; Matlin, Olga S; Gibson, Teresa B

    2012-07-01

    To estimate the impact of medication adherence on absenteeism and short-term disability among employees with chronic disease. Cross-sectional analysis of administrative health care claims, absenteeism, and short-term disability data using multivariate regression and instrumental variable models for five cohorts of employees: diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, dyslipidemia, and asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Adherence was defined as possessing medication on at least 80% of days during follow-up. Adherent employees with diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease realized between 1.7 and 7.1 fewer days absent from work and between 1.1 and 5.0 fewer days on short-term disability. Absenteeism and short-term disability days by adherent employees with congestive heart failure were not significantly different from nonadherent employees with the condition in most specifications. Appropriate management of chronic conditions can help employers minimize losses due to missed work.

  10. Tufted puffin reproduction reveals ocean climate variability

    PubMed Central

    Gjerdrum, Carina; Vallée, Anne M. J.; St. Clair, Colleen Cassady; Bertram, Douglas F.; Ryder, John L.; Blackburn, Gwylim S.

    2003-01-01

    Anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with interannual and decadal variability as well as with long-term climate changes indicative of global warming. Such oscillations could precipitate changes in a variety of oceanic processes to affect marine species worldwide. As global temperatures continue to rise, it will be critically important to be able to predict the effects of such changes on species' abundance, distribution, and ecological relationships so as to identify vulnerable populations. Off the coast of British Columbia, warm SSTs have persisted through the last two decades. Based on 16 years of reproductive data collected between 1975 and 2002, we show that the extreme variation in reproductive performance exhibited by tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) was related to changes in SST both within and among seasons. Especially warm SSTs corresponded with drastically decreased growth rates and fledging success of puffin nestlings. Puffins may partially compensate for within-season changes associated with SST by adjusting their breeding phenology, yet our data also suggest that they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change at this site and may serve as a valuable indicator of biological change in the North Pacific. Further and prolonged increases in ocean temperature could make Triangle Island, which contains the largest tufted puffin colony in Canada, unsuitable as a breeding site for this species. PMID:12871995

  11. Climate variability and the Icelandic marine ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Astthorsson, Olafur S.; Gislason, Astthor; Jonsson, Steingrimur

    2007-11-01

    This paper describes the main features of the Icelandic marine ecosystem and its response to climate variations during the 20th century. The physical oceanographic character and faunal composition in the southern and western parts of the Icelandic marine ecosystem are different from those in the northern and the eastern areas. The former areas are more or less continuously bathed by warm and saline Atlantic water while the latter are more variable and influenced by Atlantic, Arctic and even Polar water masses to different degrees. Mean annual primary production is higher in the Atlantic water than in the more variable waters north and east of Iceland, and higher closer to land than farther offshore. Similarly, zooplankton production is generally higher in the Atlantic water than in the waters north and east of Iceland. The main spawning grounds of most of the exploited fish stocks are in the Atlantic water south of the country while nursery grounds are off the north coast. In the recent years the total catch of fish and invertebrates has been in the range of 1.6-2.4 million ton. Capelin ( Mallotus villosus) is the most important pelagic stock and cod ( Gadus morhua) is by far the most important demersal fish stock. Whales are an important component of the Icelandic marine ecosystem, and Icelandic waters are an important habitat for some of the largest seabird populations in the Northeast Atlantic. In the waters to the north and east of Iceland, available information suggests the existence of a simple bottom-up controlled food chain from phytoplankton through Calanus, capelin and to cod. Less is known about the structure of the more complex southern part of the ecosystem. The Icelandic marine ecosystem is highly sensitive to climate variations as demonstrated by abundance and distribution changes of many species during the warm period in the 1930s, the cold period in the late 1960s and warming observed during the recent years. Some of these are highlighted in the

  12. Short-term effects of a low carbohydrate diet on glycaemic variables and cardiovascular risk markers in patients with type 1 diabetes: A randomized open-label crossover trial.

    PubMed

    Ranjan, Ajenthen; Schmidt, Signe; Damm-Frydenberg, Camilla; Holst, Jens Juul; Madsbad, Sten; Nørgaard, Kirsten

    2017-10-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of a high carbohydrate diet (HCD) vs a low carbohydrate diet (LCD) on glycaemic variables and cardiovascular risk markers in patients with type 1 diabetes. Ten patients (4 women, insulin pump-treated, median ± standard deviation [s.d.] age 48 ± 10 years, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] 53 ± 6 mmol/mol [7.0% ± 0.6%]) followed an isocaloric HCD (≥250 g/d) for 1 week and an isocaloric LCD (≤50 g/d) for 1 week in random order. After each week, we downloaded pump and sensor data and collected fasting blood and urine samples. Diet adherence was high (225 ± 30 vs 47 ± 10 g carbohydrates/d; P < .0001). Mean sensor glucose levels were similar in the two diets (7.3 ± 1.1 vs 7.4 ± 0.6 mmol/L; P = .99). The LCD resulted in more time with glucose values in the range of 3.9 to 10.0 mmol/L (83% ± 9% vs 72% ± 11%; P = .02), less time with values ≤3.9 mmol/L (3.3% ± 2.8% vs 8.0% ± 6.3%; P = .03), and less glucose variability (s.d. 1.9 ± 0.4 vs 2.6 ± 0.4 mmol/L; P = .02) than the HCD. Cardiovascular markers were unaffected, while fasting glucagon, ketone and free fatty acid levels were higher at end of the LCD week than the HCD week. In conclusion, the LCD resulted in more time in euglycaemia, less time in hypoglycaemia and less glucose variability than the HCD, without altering mean glucose levels. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    PubMed

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  14. Impact of large-scale climate variability and change on crop yields in Africa: An observational assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smoliak, B. V.; Po-Chedley, S.; Cullen, A. C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of the relationships between climate and agricultural production have progressed from opposite ends of the spatio-temporal spectrum. While studies of global-scale climate-yield relationships have provided estimates of the impact of multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation on recent production, studies of local weather impacts on yield have demonstrated the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on plant physiology, particularly with respect to the duration and timing of extremes. At intermediate spatial and temporal scales, somewhat of a gap in understanding exists. Our investigation contributes to better understanding climate-yield relationships at intermediate scales by assessing the impact of climate variability on crop yields at the country to continent scale on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Toward this end, we employ historical climatic data and reported cereal crop yields from the African continent, 1961 to 2009, in conjunction with principal component regression and partial least squares regression. Our results show that a discrete set of spatial patterns of climate variability account for up to half of the year-to-year variability in crop yields over portions of Africa. The impact of this climate variability is particularly strong in Sub-Saharan Africa, where large or prolonged deficits in yields can result in food shortages. The fundamental patterns of variability used to explain yield fluctuations are based on temperature and precipitation, chosen due to their influence on plant physiology; however, the time-varying behavior of the patterns may also be linked to coherent large-scale climate variability through regressions with sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and low-level wind fields. Results are distilled in terms of five UN designated geographic regions of Africa. Implications for short-term food security and future climate change are discussed.

  15. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  16. Workshop 3 (synthesis): climate variability, water systems and management options.

    PubMed

    Connor, R; Kuylenstierna, J

    2004-01-01

    Addressing climate variability now will better prepare us for future impacts of climate change. Sustained, multi-stakeholder dialogue at local through national levels is an approach that will reach the widest audience, helped by tools that illustrate vulnerability such as the Climate Vulnerability Index. Integrated water resources management deals with managing for variability and change and is therefore highly appropriate for dealing with climate impacts.

  17. The Delicate Analysis of Short-Term Load Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Changwei; Zheng, Yuan

    2017-05-01

    This paper proposes a new method for short-term load forecasting based on the similar day method, correlation coefficient and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to achieve the precision analysis of load variation from three aspects (typical day, correlation coefficient, spectral analysis) and three dimensions (time dimension, industry dimensions, the main factors influencing the load characteristic such as national policies, regional economic, holidays, electricity and so on). First, the branch algorithm one-class-SVM is adopted to selection the typical day. Second, correlation coefficient method is used to obtain the direction and strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, which can reflect the influence caused by the customer macro policy and the scale of production to the electricity price. Third, Fourier transform residual error correction model is proposed to reflect the nature of load extracting from the residual error. Finally, simulation result indicates the validity and engineering practicability of the proposed method.

  18. An 8700 Year Record of Holocene Climate Variability from the Yucatan Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, D.; Byrne, R.; Anderson, L.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of Holocene climate change in the Maya lowlands of Central America has improved significantly during the last several decades thanks to the development of proxy climate records from lake cores and speleothems. One important finding is that longer-term climate changes (i.e., millennial scale) were driven primarily by precessional forcing; less clear, however, are the causes of abrupt shifts and higher frequency (centennial to decadal) change recognized in many Holocene climate reconstructions. The mechanisms driving climate change on these time scales have been difficult to identify in the region, in part because the Yucatan peninsula is influenced by climatic conditions linked to both the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Additional complications arise from the development of dense human populations following the initial introduction of agriculture ~5000 cal yr BP, which had significant impact on the environment as a whole. Here we present the results of analyses (stable isotope, pollen, magnetic susceptibility, and physical properties) of a 7.25 m sediment core from Lago Puerto Arturo, a closed basin lake in the northern Peten, Guatemala. An age-depth model, based on 6 AMS radiocarbon determinations and created using CLAM, indicates the record extends to 8700 cal yr BP. Proxy data suggest that, similar to other low latitude sites, millennial scale climate at Lago Puerto Arturo was driven by changes in insolation. Higher frequency variability is associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics, reflecting latitudinal shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in both the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific. Solar forcing may also play a role in short-term climate change. The pollen and isotope records show that the entire period of prehispanic settlement and agricultural activity, i.e. ~5000-1000 cal yr B.P., was characterized by relatively dry conditions compared to before or after.

  19. Safety nets can help address the risks to nutrition from increasing climate variability.

    PubMed

    Alderman, Harold

    2010-01-01

    Models of climate change predict increased variability of weather as well as changes in agro-ecology. The increased variability will pose special challenges for nutrition. This study reviews evidence on climate shocks and nutrition and estimates the economic consequences in terms of reduced schooling and economic productivity stemming from nutritional insults in childhood. Panel data covering up to 20 y indicate that that short-term climate shocks have long-term impacts on children that persist, often into their adult lives. Other studies document the potential for relief programs to offset these shocks providing that the programs can be implemented with flexible financing, rapid identification of those affected by the shock, and timely scale-up. The last of these presumes that programs are already in place with contingency plans drawn up. Arguably, direct food distribution, including that of ready-to-use therapeutic food, may be part of the overall strategy. Even if such programs are too expensive for sustainable widespread use in the prevention of malnutrition, scalable food distribution programs may be cost effective to address the heightened risk of malnutrition following weather-related shocks.

  20. Short-term variability during an anchor station study in the southern Benguela upwelling system: Abundance, distribution and estimated production of mesozooplankton with special reference to Calanoides carinatus (Krøyer, 1849)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheye, Hans M.

    Daytime zooplankton samples collected at a fixed station position in St Helena Bay during a 27-day time series in March-April 1987 were used to describe the variability in the vertical distribution, abundance and population age structure of Calanoides carinatus in response to upwelling-related processes, and to provide an estimate of their production. The vertical distribution of C. carinatus was characterized by ontogenetic layering of copepodites and adults. The thermocline delimited the maximum depth of young copepodites (CI-CIII). Older stages avoided low-oxygen (<1ml O 2l -1) bottom water. C. carinatus was usually not associated with the chlorophyll a maximum. The spatial segregation of young and older stages is briefly discussed in relation to differential feeding habits and diel vertical migration behaviour. The demographic structure of the C. carinatus population showed evidence of a stable age distribution of copepodites and adults during the first of two upwelling cycles observed during the study. Overall mean abundance was 360 animals m -3. However, during the second upwelling cycle their mean abundance was reduced to 183 animals m -3 and adults dominated the population by 54%. These changes in abundance and age structure are discussed in relation to upwelling-induced advective processes. Surface-dwelling young copepodites (CI-CIII) are thought to be transported away from the study site, while re-seeding of the reduced nearshore population probably took place through advection of diapausal pre-adults (CV) in the upwelled water. Daily production of juvenile C. carinatus was estimated at 0.7 mg C m -3d -1 which, combined with an egg production of 1.0mg C m -3d -1 by addult females, is equivalent to 2% of the observed daily primary production. The mean P:B ratio for the copepodite stages was 0.167d -1. The role of this dominant copepod and the mesozooplankton in the carbon budget in St Helena Bay is discussed. Consumption by mesozooplankters was estimated

  1. Short-term effects of a hypocaloric diet with low glycemic index and low glycemic load on body adiposity, metabolic variables, ghrelin, leptin, and pregnancy rate in overweight and obese infertile women: a randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Becker, Geórgia F; Passos, Eduardo P; Moulin, Cileide C

    2015-12-01

    Obesity is related to hormonal disorders that affect the reproductive system. Low-glycemic index (LGI) diets seem to exert a positive effect on weight loss and on metabolic changes that result from obesity. We investigated the effects of a hypocaloric diet with an LGI and low glycemic load on anthropometric and metabolic variables, ghrelin and leptin concentrations, and the pregnancy rate in overweight and obese infertile women who were undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF). The study was a randomized block-design controlled trial in which we analyzed 26 overweight or obese infertile women. Patients were assigned to a hypocaloric LGI-diet group or a control group and followed the protocol for 12 wk. Body weight, body mass index (BMI), percentage of body fat, glucose, insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, serum lipids, reproductive hormones, leptin, acylated ghrelin, number of oocytes retrieved in the IVF cycle, and pregnancy rate were determined. There were greater reductions in body mass, BMI, percentage of body fat, waist:hip ratio, and leptin in the LGI-diet group than in the control group (P < 0.05). Despite a change of 18% in mean values, there was no significant increase in acylated ghrelin concentrations in the LGI group compared with the control group (P = 0.215). The LGI-diet group had 85.4% more oocytes retrieved than did the control group (7.75 ± 1.44 and 4.18 ± 0.87, respectively; P = 0.039) in the IVF cycle. Three patients (21.4%) in the LGI group experienced a spontaneous pregnancy during the follow-up, which generated 3 live births. The hypocaloric LGI diet promoted a decrease in BMI, percentage of body fat, and leptin concentrations, which improved oocyte development and pregnancy rate. These results support the clinical recommendation to advise overweight and obese women to lose weight through a balanced diet before being submitted for treatment with assisted reproduction technologies. A hypocaloric diet combined with LGI

  2. The effects of climate variables on the outbreak of dengue in Queensland 2008-2009.

    PubMed

    Hasan, Tasnim; Bambrick, Hilary

    2013-07-04

    Outbreaks of dengue occur in Queensland, Australia nearly every summer. In 2008-2009, there was an unusually large, protracted outbreak of dengue, comprised of 1,200 cases. We investigated the weather variables and their contribution to the 2008-2009 dengue outbreak in Queensland. Case data were obtained from the Communicable Disease Branch of Queensland Health for 2000-2010 for the towns of Cairns and Townsville. Monthly weather data (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). We used a negative binomial model to test associations between these variables and dengue. Lagged models were also created for one, two and three months. Our models suggest all weather variables but not the SOI were associated with dengue in both Cairns and Townsville, without a lag (p<0.01). No significant lag was seen with the weather variables. Rainfall and temperature preceding the 2008-2009 outbreak were also not significantly different (p<0.01) from other years. Short-term (non-lagged) weather variables were associated with the number of dengue cases in Cairns and Townsville. No lag was seen and no association was seen between the SOI and the number of dengue cases, which suggests there may be limited potential to predict large dengue outbreaks using climate variability. The large outbreak in 2008-2009 may have been driven by other, non-weather factors in addition to the immediate weather effect.

  3. Analysis of excess lung cancer risk in short-term employees.

    PubMed

    Lamm, S H; Levine, M S; Starr, J A; Tirey, S L

    1988-06-01

    An excess of lung cancer found in a cohort of 741 New York State tremolitic talc workers observed from 1947 through 1978 has been shown paradoxically to be concentrated in short-term workers. Review of past work histories suggests that the excess of lung cancer in these short-term workers may be accounted for by prior exposures rather than by exposures at the employment under investigation. This finding has significant implications in view of the developing practice of including short-term workers in occupational cohort studies in contrast to the more traditional practice of excluding short-term workers. The traditional practice was based on the assumption that the inclusion of short-term workers with little exposure, and thus little risk, might dilute an otherwise apparent association between mortality and exposure. This study suggests that in certain instances the inclusion of short-term workers may magnify rather than dilute the estimation of risk, reflecting the presence of confounding variables.

  4. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    PubMed

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  5. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

  6. [Polish and worldwide short term exposure limits: concept, interpretation and proposed sampling strategy for assessing short term exposure].

    PubMed

    Gromiec, Jan P

    2003-01-01

    Short term exposure limits (STEL) are introduced to prevent acute effects of substances whose workday concentrations are maintained below OEL-TWA. The aim of this paper was to compare the procedures of setting STEL and practicing their application for chemical agents in Poland and other selected countries (USA, Germany, UK) and in the European Union in general. Based on the review, a new concept of STEL was proposed. It involves drastic decrease in the number of substances with dual hygiene standards and maintenance of departures above TWA within some reasonable limits, depending on variability of concentrations expressed as geometric standard deviation, if the availability of toxicological data is limited. In view of the changed STEL definition, a new air sampling strategy has been proposed. It is based on the worst case samples with possibility of restrain from sampling in case of homogenous exposure.

  7. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  8. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  9. Effects of climatic variability and change

    Treesearch

    Michael G. Ryan; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Climate profoundly shapes forests. Forest species composition, productivity, availability of goods and services, disturbance regimes, and location on the landscape are all regulated by climate. Much research attention has focused on the problem of projecting the response of forests to changing climate, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)...

  10. Essential climatic variables estimation with satellite imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolotii, A.; Kussul, N.; Shelestov, A.; Lavreniuk, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    According to Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030 Leaf Area Index (LAI) is considered as one of essential climatic variables. This variable represents the amount of leaf material in ecosystems and controls the links between biosphere and atmosphere through various processes and enables monitoring and quantitative assessment of vegetation state. LAI has added value for such important global resources monitoring tasks as drought mapping and crop yield forecasting with use of data from different sources [1-2]. Remote sensing data from space can be used to estimate such biophysical parameter at regional and national scale. High temporal satellite imagery is usually required to capture main parameters of crop growth [3]. Sentinel-2 mission launched in 2015 be ESA is a source of high spatial and temporal resolution satellite imagery for mapping biophysical parameters. Products created with use of automated Sen2-Agri system deployed during Sen2-Agri country level demonstration project for Ukraine will be compared with our independent results of biophysical parameters mapping. References Shelestov, A., Kolotii, A., Camacho, F., Skakun, S., Kussul, O., Lavreniuk, M., & Kostetsky, O. (2015, July). Mapping of biophysical parameters based on high resolution EO imagery for JECAM test site in Ukraine. In 2015 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 1733-1736 Kolotii, A., Kussul, N., Shelestov, A., Skakun, S., Yailymov, B., Basarab, R., ... & Ostapenko, V. (2015). Comparison of biophysical and satellite predictors for wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine. The International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 40(7), 39-44. Kussul, N., Lemoine, G., Gallego, F. J., Skakun, S. V., Lavreniuk, M., & Shelestov, A. Y. Parcel-Based Crop Classification in Ukraine Using Landsat-8 Data and Sentinel-1A Data. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing , 9 (6), 2500-2508.

  11. Climate Variability on Venus and Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, F. W.

    2006-08-01

    Venus and Titan are both slowly-rotating, approximately Earth-sized bodies with cloudy, dynamic atmospheres. Each has a complex climate system, even less well understood than the terrestrial equivalent, and the processes that appear to maintain the climate near the surface on both bodies have interesting similarities and differences with each other and with the Earth. By considering these factors and their possible evolution with the aid of elementary climate models, some interesting, albeit tentative, conclusions can be reached concerning the stability of climate on Earth-like planets, and the likely nature of past and future climate change.

  12. Working memory training improves visual short-term memory capacity.

    PubMed

    Schwarb, Hillary; Nail, Jayde; Schumacher, Eric H

    2016-01-01

    Since antiquity, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have been interested in human memory. However, researchers today are still working to understand the capabilities, boundaries, and architecture. While the storage capabilities of long-term memory are seemingly unlimited (Bahrick, J Exp Psychol 113:1-2, 1984), working memory, or the ability to maintain and manipulate information held in memory, seems to have stringent capacity limits (e.g., Cowan, Behav Brain Sci 24:87-185, 2001). Individual differences, however, do exist and these differences can often predict performance on a wide variety of tasks (cf. Engle What is working-memory capacity? 297-314, 2001). Recently, researchers have promoted the enticing possibility that simple behavioral training can expand the limits of working memory which indeed may also lead to improvements on other cognitive processes as well (cf. Morrison and Chein, Psychol Bull Rev 18:46-60 2011). However, initial investigations across a wide variety of cognitive functions have produced mixed results regarding the transferability of training-related improvements. Across two experiments, the present research focuses on the benefit of working memory training on visual short-term memory capacity-a cognitive process that has received little attention in the training literature. Data reveal training-related improvement of global measures of visual short-term memory as well as of measures of the independent sub-processes that contribute to capacity (Awh et al., Psychol Sci 18(7):622-628, 2007). These results suggest that the ability to inhibit irrelevant information within and between trials is enhanced via n-back training allowing for selective improvement on untrained tasks. Additionally, we highlight a potential limitation of the standard adaptive training procedure and propose a modified design to ensure variability in the training environment.

  13. Short-term predictions in forex trading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muriel, A.

    2004-12-01

    Using a kinetic equation that is used to model turbulence (Physica A, 1985-1988, Physica D, 2001-2003), we redefine variables to model the time evolution of the foreign exchange rates of three major currencies. We display live and predicted data for one period of trading in October, 2003.

  14. [Short-term variability of blood pressure: physiology and pharmacology].

    PubMed

    Elghozi, J-L

    2008-06-01

    Non invasive continuous measurement of blood pressure (BP) is currently performed at the finger level. The various oscillations of BP are distinguished using spectral analysis based on the fast Fourier transform. The first order oscillation of BP is synchronous with the heart beat and generates pulsaltile changes in BP. Second order oscillations are generated by respiration and depend on intrathoracic pressure changes. They do not exceed few millimeters of mercury. Heart rate also oscillates with respiration. This respiratory sinus arrhythmia depends on vagal activity. A slower third order oscillation also called 10-s period rhythm or Mayer waves depend on vascular tone changes. These waves may reach 20 mmHg. Mayer waves reflect oscillations in resistance vessels and depend on sympathetic discharges. Sympathetic nerves determine oscillations in resistance vessels and cardiac rhythm at the same 0.1 Hz frequency. A better understanding of these oscillations helps in understanding BP regulatory mechanisms and in treating BP disorders. Prognosis of arterial hypertension also depends on these BP fluctuations. Recent time and frequency domain developments in the analysis of the reflex relationship between BP and heart rate allow the calculations of indexes of spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity. Baroreflex sensitivity is a new indicator of cardiovascular risk.

  15. LAMPPOST: A Mnemonic Device for Teaching Climate Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fahrer, Chuck; Harris, Dan

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces the word "LAMPPOST" as a mnemonic device to aid in the instruction of climate variables. It provides instructors with a framework for discussing climate patterns that is based on eight variables: latitude, altitude, maritime influence and continentality, pressure systems, prevailing winds, ocean currents, storms, and…

  16. The paleoclimate record of long-term climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Webb, R.S.; Bartlein, P.J.; Overpeck, J.T. Univ. of Oregon, Eugene )

    1993-06-01

    Climate variability occurs on time scales ranging from decades or shorter to millions of years. An important step in determining the effects of trace-gas-induced warming on climate variability and ecosystems is characterizing past natural variability and change. Throughout the Quaternary long-term climate variability has been dominated by Milankovitch forcing of glacial/interglacial cycles. Superimposed on this millennia-scale orbitally forced variability have been more rapid climate events (e.g. Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, Sahelian droughts). Although highly relevant to understanding possible responses of ecosystems to future climate change, most decade to century scale climate variability remains poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms and responses can be obtained from tree rings, ice cores, corals, marine, lake and fluvial sediments, pollen, and macrofossils. These paleoclimate records reveal that the range of natural climate variability is much larger than indicated by the instrumental record of the past 150 years. Global networks of well-dated, high-resolution paleocrunate records for key intervals of the past are currently being assembled. These networks should provide the baseline of natural variability required to understand climate-ecosystem dynamics and to identify anthropogenic-induced change.

  17. LAMPPOST: A Mnemonic Device for Teaching Climate Variables

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fahrer, Chuck; Harris, Dan

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces the word "LAMPPOST" as a mnemonic device to aid in the instruction of climate variables. It provides instructors with a framework for discussing climate patterns that is based on eight variables: latitude, altitude, maritime influence and continentality, pressure systems, prevailing winds, ocean currents, storms, and…

  18. Canopy interception variability in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, Péter; Herceg, András; Kisfaludi, Balázs; Csáki, Péter; Gribovszki, Zoltán

    2017-04-01

    Tree canopies play a rather important role in forest hydrology. They intercept significant amounts of precipitation and evaporate back into the atmosphere during and after precipitation event. This process determines the net intake of forest soils and so important factor of hydrological processes in forested catchments. Average amount of interception loss is determined by the storage capacity of tree canopies and the rainfall distribution. Canopy storage capacity depends on several factors. It shows strong correlation with the leaf area index (LAI). Some equations are available to quantify this dependence. LAI shows significant variability both spatial and temporal scale. There are several methods to derive LAI from remote sensed data which helps to follow changes of it. In this study MODIS sensor based LAI time series are used to estimate changes of the storage capacity. Rainfall distribution derived from the FORESEE database which is developed for climate change related impact studies in the Carpathian Basin. It contains observation based precipitation data for the past and uses bias correction method for the climate projections. In this study a site based estimation is outworked for the Sopron Hills area. Sopron Hills is located at the eastern foothills of the Alps in Hungary. The study site, namely Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment, is located in the central valley of the Sopron Hills. Long-term interception measurements are available in several forest sites in Hidegvíz Valley. With the combination of the ground based observations, MODIS LAI datasets a simple function is developed to describe the average yearly variations in canopy storage. Interception measurements and the CREMAP evapotranspiration data help to calibrate a simple interception loss equation based on Merriam's work. Based on these equation and the FORESEE bias corrected precipitation data an estimation is outworked for better understanding of the feedback of forest crown on hydrological

  19. Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seiler, C.

    2012-04-01

    Bolivia's historic climate variability and trends were analyzed and compared to climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Data consisted of (i) daily temperature and precipitation measurements from 68 meteorological stations with time series lasting on average from 1960-2009 and (ii) 36 GCMs from the 3rd and 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3/5), covering 3 Emission Scenarios (SRES) and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Methods included data quality control and homogenization, analysis of variance (ANOVA), principal component analysis (PCA), linear trend analysis and statistical tests. Historic impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on anomalies and trends were assessed for climatologically contrasting regions. GCMs were validated against observations and projected changes were compared to historic trends. Results showed that historic temperatures were generally higher during the warm compared to the cold phase of PDO, while rainfall was generally higher (lower) in Bolivia's lowlands in DJF (JJA) and lower (higher) in the Andes in DJF (JJA). During El Niño (La Niña) events, temperatures were generally higher (lower) in DJF and lower (higher) in JJA compared to neutral years. Rainfall was generally lower (higher) in DJF (JJA) during El Niño events and higher during La Niña events. After the switch from the cold to the warm PDO phase in 1976/77, temperatures in the dry season (JJA) have increased while, rainfall has mainly decreased. The first two principal components of temperature and precipitation time series may partly be associated with the PDO and ENSO index. GCMs showed significant correlations with observed values; however, most GCMs had a cold and wet bias. The skills of corresponding GCMs generally improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Historic and projected changes agreed regarding strongest increases in temperature during the dry season

  20. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  1. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  2. Three Models for Short-Term Study Abroad

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sachau, Daniel; Brasher, Niel; Fee, Scott

    2010-01-01

    Nearly 250,000 U.S. college students participate in study abroad programs each year. A growing proportion of students are participating in short-term study abroad programs. Despite the large number of students in these programs, there are relatively few articles that describe how to start or manage a short-term, business-related, study abroad…

  3. A Short-Term Delivery Model for Counseling Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knott, J. Eugene

    The author discusses a short-term delivery model which forms the essential mode of operation at the counseling center at Rhode Island College. He prefaces his discription of the model by indicating that not all clients, problems or counselors are amenable to this short-term approach. There are three steps or elements in the delivery model: 1)…

  4. Short-Term Training--Where the Action Is!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, George R.

    In order to address major permanent changes in the economic structure and workforce of its community, Chemeketa Community College (CCC) in Oregon has made a commitment to initiate as many short-term training programs as its resources permit. Short-term training, which takes less time than regular one-year certificate or two-year associate degree…

  5. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  6. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  7. Double Dissociations in Visual and Spatial Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klauer, Karl Christoph; Zhao, Zengmei

    2004-01-01

    A visual short-term memory task was more strongly disrupted by visual than spa