Science.gov

Sample records for short-term earthquake prediction

  1. Is Earthquake Prediction Possible from Short-Term Foreshocks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Avlonitis, Markos; Di Fiore, Boris; Minadakis, George

    2015-04-01

    Foreshocks preceding mainshocks in the short-term, ranging from minutes to a few months prior the mainshock, have been known from several decades ago. Understanding the generation mechanisms of foreshocks was supported by seismicity observations and statistics, laboratory experiments, theoretical considerations and simulation results. However, important issues remain open. For example, (1) How foreshocks are defined? (2) Why only some mainshocks are preceded by foreshocks but others do not? (2) Is the mainshock size dependent on some attributes of the foreshock sequence? (3) Is that possible to discriminate foreshocks from other seismicity styles (e.g. swarms, aftershocks)? To approach possible replies to these issues we reviewed about 400 papers, reports, books and other documents referring to foreshocks as well as to relevant laboratory experiments. We found that different foreshock definitions are used by different authors. We found also that the ratio of mainshocks preceded by foreshocks increases with the increase of monitoring capabilities and that foreshock activity is dependent on source mechanical properties and favoured by material heterogeneity. Also, the mainshock size does not depend on the largest foreshock size but rather by the foreshock area. Seismicity statistics may account for an effective discrimination of foreshocks from other seismicity styles since during foreshock activities the seismicity rate increases with the inverse of time and, at the same, the b-value of the G-R relationship as a rule drops significantly. Our literature survey showed that only the last years the seismicity catalogs organized in some well monitored areas are adequately complete to search for foreshock activities. Therefore, we investigated for a set of "good foreshock examples" covering a wide range of mainshock magnitudes from 4.5 to 9 in Japan (Tohoku 2011), S. California, Italy (including L' Aquila 2009) and Greece. The good examples used indicate that foreshocks

  2. Foreshock Sequences and Short-Term Earthquake Predictability on East Pacific Rise Transform Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, J. J.; Boettcher, M. S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    A predominant view of continental seismicity postulates that all earthquakes initiate in a similar manner regardless of their eventual size and that earthquake triggering can be described by an Endemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [e.g. Ogata, 1988, Helmstetter and Sorenette 2002]. These null hypotheses cannot be rejected as an explanation for the relative abundances of foreshocks and aftershocks to large earthquakes in California [Helmstetter et al., 2003]. An alternative location for testing this hypothesis is mid-ocean ridge transform faults (RTFs), which have many properties that are distinct from continental transform faults: most plate motion is accommodated aseismically, many large earthquakes are slow events enriched in low-frequency radiation, and the seismicity shows depleted aftershock sequences and high foreshock activity. Here we use the 1996-2001 NOAA-PMEL hydroacoustic seismicity catalog for equatorial East Pacific Rise transform faults to show that the foreshock/aftershock ratio is two orders of magnitude greater than the ETAS prediction based on global RTF aftershock abundances. We can thus reject the null hypothesis that there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks on RTFs. We further demonstrate (retrospectively) that foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to achieve statistically significant short-term prediction of large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 5.4) with good spatial (15-km) and temporal (1-hr) resolution using the NOAA-PMEL catalogs. Our very simplistic approach produces a large number of false alarms, but it successfully predicts the majority (70%) of M≥5.4 earthquakes while covering only a tiny fraction (0.15%) of the total potential space-time volume with alarms. Therefore, it achieves a large probability gain (about a factor of 500) over random guessing, despite not using any near field data. The predictability of large EPR transform earthquakes suggests

  3. The USGS plan for short-term prediction of the anticipated Parkfield earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    Aside from the goal of better understanding the Parkfield earthquake cycle, it is the intention of the U.S Geological Survey to attempt to issue a warning shortly before the anticipated earthquake. Although short-term earthquake warnings are not yet generally feasible, the wealth of information available for the previous significant Parkfield earthquakes suggests that if the next earthquake follows the pattern of "characteristic" Parkfield shocks, such a warning might be possible. Focusing on earthquake precursors reported for the previous  "characteristic" shocks, particulary the 1934 and 1966 events, the USGS developed a plan* in late 1985 on which to base earthquake warnings for Parkfield and has assisted State, county, and local officials in the Parkfield area to prepare a coordinated, reasonable response to a warning, should one be issued. 

  4. From a physical approach to earthquake prediction, towards long and short term warnings ahead of large earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefansson, R.; Bonafede, M.

    2012-04-01

    For 20 years the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was a test site for multinational earthquake prediction research, partly bridging the gap between laboratory tests samples, and the huge transform zones of the Earth. The approach was to explore the physics of processes leading up to large earthquakes. The book Advances in Earthquake Prediction, Research and Risk Mitigation, by R. Stefansson (2011), published by Springer/PRAXIS, and an article in the August issue of the BSSA by Stefansson, M. Bonafede and G. Gudmundsson (2011) contain a good overview of the findings, and more references, as well as examples of partially successful long and short term warnings based on such an approach. Significant findings are: Earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago left scars in the crust, expressed in volumes of heterogeneity that demonstrate the size of their faults. Rheology and stress heterogeneity within these volumes are significantly variable in time and space. Crustal processes in and near such faults may be observed by microearthquake information decades before the sudden onset of a new large earthquake. High pressure fluids of mantle origin may in response to strain, especially near plate boundaries, migrate upward into the brittle/elastic crust to play a significant role in modifying crustal conditions on a long and short term. Preparatory processes of various earthquakes can not be expected to be the same. We learn about an impending earthquake by observing long term preparatory processes at the fault, finding a constitutive relationship that governs the processes, and then extrapolating that relationship into near space and future. This is a deterministic approach in earthquake prediction research. Such extrapolations contain many uncertainties. However the long time pattern of observations of the pre-earthquake fault process will help us to put probability constraints on our extrapolations and our warnings. The approach described is different from the usual

  5. Short-term foreshock activity and its value for the earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orfanogiannaki, Katerina; Daskalaki, Elena; Minadakis, George; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos

    2014-05-01

    Seismicity often occurs in space-time clusters: swarms, short-term foreshocks, aftershocks. Swarms are space-time clusters that do not conclude with a mainshock. Earthquake statistics shows that in areas of good seismicity monitoring foreshocks precede sizeable (M5.5 or more) mainshocks at a rate of about half percent. Therefore, discrimination between foreshocks and swarms is of crucial importance with the aim to use foreshocks as a diagnostic of forthcoming strong mainshock in real-time conditions. We analyzed seismic sequences in Greece and Italy with the application of our algorithm FORMA (Foreshocks-Mainshock-Aftershocks) and discriminate between foreshocks and swarms based on the seismicity significant changes in the space-time-magnitude domains. We support that different statistical properties is a diagnostic of foreshocks (e.g. b-value drop) against swarms (b-value increase). A complementary approach is based on the development of Poisson Hidden Markov Models (PHMM's) which are introduced to model significant temporal seismicity changes. In a PHMM the unobserved sequence of states is a finite-state Markov chain and the distribution of the observation at any time is Poissonian with rate depending only on the current state of the chain. Thus, PHMM allows a region to have varying seismicity rate. PHMM is a promising diagnostic since the transition from one state to another does not only depend on the total number of events involved but also on the current state of the system. A third methodological experiment was performed based on the complex network theory. We found that the earthquake networks examined form a scale-free degree distribution. By computing their basic statistical measures, such as the Average Clustering Coefficient, Mean Path Length and Entropy, we found that they underline the strong space-time clustering of swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks but also their important differences. Therefore, network theory is an additional, promising tool to

  6. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

    2005-03-24

    East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion. PMID:15791246

  7. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  8. Short-term predictions of solar flares.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burov, V. A.

    1990-02-01

    A review of present-day theoretical investigations of the problem of the accumulation and release of energy in solar flares permits advancing the opinion that only individual flare events are described by a concrete model and that a single model alone does not describe the entire diversity of flares. Consideration of the observational data does not permit claiming the existence of a single universal mechanism known today of flare events. It appears possible to treat the problem of prediction in terms of the algebra of logic (Boolean logic) and to compare the truth table with the often-used contingency table. The introduction of a number of very general assumptions permits forming a general approach to the development of predictive schemes and selection of the individual elements of the models and informative criteria. Experimental results are given on the testing of some prediction procedures. The author's procedure of routine short-term prediction of flares on the basis of the methods of instruction on pattern recognition implemented in the form of a set of programs is outlined. The results of the application of this procedure in 1986 - 1988 are presented.

  9. Short-term predictions in forex trading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muriel, A.

    2004-12-01

    Using a kinetic equation that is used to model turbulence (Physica A, 1985-1988, Physica D, 2001-2003), we redefine variables to model the time evolution of the foreign exchange rates of three major currencies. We display live and predicted data for one period of trading in October, 2003.

  10. Aftershock Number for Forecasting Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christophersen, A.; Smith, E. G.

    2004-12-01

    Data from earthquakes worldwide with depths shallower than 70 km were combined from the International Seismological Centre, the US National Earthquake Information Center, Blacknest, and Harvard. An extensive magnitude and catalogue completeness study defined a `best' magnitude using the Harvard moment as a reference. The catalogue covers the period 1964 to 1995 and is effectively complete for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above. The data were divided into six tectonic settings, and searched for related events using a simple window in space and time. An objective method was developed to define an elliptical aftershock area. The database of aftershock sequences has about 28,000 mainshocks of which about 2,400 have a magnitude M ≥ 6.0, and these were followed by a total of about 7,000 aftershocks. The database was analyzed in space, time, magnitude, and in the number of aftershocks in a sequence, hereafter called abundance. The aftershock decay in time and the magnitude-frequency distribution follow well- established empirical laws, Omori's law and the Gutenberg and Richter relationship. These relationships were analyzed by stacking data from various sequences within the same tectonic setting. The p-value for the aftershock decay in time was found to be 1.0 for subduction and collision zones, and for regions of mixed tectonic character like New Zealand. For mid-ocean ridges the p-value of the present dataset is 1.19 ± 0.08 and for intracontinental zones 0.86 ± 0.14. The b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation is 1.0 for aftershock sequences in all settings. No variation of the b-value with time was observed. The abundance varies greatly from sequence to sequence. It can be modeled by a geometric distribution, where the mean abundance N grows exponentially with mainshock magnitude, M i.e. log N is proportional to M. The distribution parameters for time, magnitude and abundance can be combined to probabilistically predict the number of aftershocks in a given

  11. Testing new methodologies for short -term earthquake forecasting: Multi-parameters precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Tramutoli, Valerio; Lee, Lou; Liu, Tiger; Hattori, Katsumi; Kafatos, Menas

    2014-05-01

    We are conducting real-time tests involving multi-parameter observations over different seismo-tectonics regions in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several selected parameters, namely: gas discharge; thermal infrared radiation; ionospheric electron density; and atmospheric temperature and humidity, which we believe are all associated with the earthquake preparation phase. We are testing a methodology capable to produce alerts in advance of major earthquakes (M > 5.5) in different regions of active earthquakes and volcanoes. During 2012-2013 we established a collaborative framework with PRE-EARTHQUAKE (EU) and iSTEP3 (Taiwan) projects for coordinated measurements and prospective validation over seven testing regions: Southern California (USA), Eastern Honshu (Japan), Italy, Greece, Turkey, Taiwan (ROC), Kamchatka and Sakhalin (Russia). The current experiment provided a "stress test" opportunity to validate the physical based earthquake precursor approach over regions of high seismicity. Our initial results are: (1) Real-time tests have shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionosphere before most of the significant (M>5.5) earthquakes; (2) False positives exist and ratios are different for each region, varying between 50% for (Southern Italy), 35% (California) down to 25% (Taiwan, Kamchatka and Japan) with a significant reduction of false positives as soon as at least two geophysical parameters are contemporarily used; (3) Main problems remain related to the systematic collection and real-time integration of pre-earthquake observations. Our findings suggest that real-time testing of physically based pre-earthquake signals provides a short-term predictive power (in all three important parameters, namely location, time and magnitude) for the occurrence of major earthquakes in the tested regions and this result encourages testing to continue with a more detailed analysis of

  12. Power system very short-term load prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Trudnowski, D.J.; Johnson, J.M.; Whitney, P.

    1997-02-01

    A fundamental objective of a power-system operating and control scheme is to maintain a match between the system`s overall real-power load and generation. To accurately maintain this match, modern energy management systems require estimates of the future total system load. Several strategies and tools are available for estimating system load. Nearly all of these estimate the future load in 1-hour steps over several hours (or time frames very close to this). While hourly load estimates are very useful for many operation and control decisions, more accurate estimates at closer intervals would also be valuable. This is especially true for emerging Area Generation Control (AGC) strategies such as look-ahead AGC. For these short-term estimation applications, future load estimates out to several minutes at intervals of 1 to 5 minutes are required. The currently emerging operation and control strategies being developed by the BPA are dependent on accurate very short-term load estimates. To meet this need, the BPA commissioned the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Montana Tech (an affiliate of the University of Montana) to develop an accurate load prediction algorithm and computer codes that automatically update and can reliably perform in a closed-loop controller for the BPA system. The requirements include accurate load estimation in 5-minute steps out to 2 hours. This report presents the results of this effort and includes: a methodology and algorithms for short-term load prediction that incorporates information from a general hourly forecaster; specific algorithm parameters for implementing the predictor in the BPA system; performance and sensitivity studies of the algorithms on BPA-supplied data; an algorithm for filtering power system load samples as a precursor to inputting into the predictor; and FORTRAN 77 subroutines for implementing the algorithms.

  13. Comparison of Short-term and Long-term Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2004-12-01

    Many earthquakes are triggered in part by preceding events. Aftershocks are the most obvious examples, but many large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones. The large fluctuations of seismicity rate due to earthquake interactions thus provide a way to improve earthquake forecasting significantly. We have developed a model to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in Southern California, using the Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence model [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988]. The forecasted seismicity rate is the sum of a constant external loading and of the aftershocks of all past earthquakes. The background rate is estimated by smoothing past seismicity. Each earthquake triggers aftershocks with a rate that increases exponentially with its magnitude and which decreases with time following Omori's law. We use an isotropic kernel to model the spatial distribution of aftershocks for small (M≤5.5) mainshocks, and a smoothing of the location of early aftershocks for larger mainshocks. The model also assumes that all earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with a unifom b-value. We use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the model parameters and tests the short-term and long-term forecasts. A retrospective test using a daily update of the forecasts between 1985/1/1 and 2004/3/10 shows that the short-term model decreases the uncertainty of an earthquake occurrence by a factor of about 10.

  14. Short-term wind speed predictions with machine learning techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Khatibi, R.; FazeliFard, M. H.; Naghipour, L.; Makarynskyy, O.

    2016-02-01

    Hourly wind speed forecasting is presented by a modeling study with possible applications to practical problems including farming wind energy, aircraft safety and airport operations. Modeling techniques employed in this paper for such short-term predictions are based on the machine learning techniques of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic expression programming (GEP). Recorded values of wind speed were used, which comprised 8 years of collected data at the Kersey site, Colorado, USA. The January data over the first 7 years (2005-2011) were used for model training; and the January data for 2012 were used for model testing. A number of model structures were investigated for the validation of the robustness of these two techniques. The prediction results were compared with those of a multiple linear regression (MLR) method and with the Persistence method developed for the data. The model performances were evaluated using the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and Akaike information criterion. The results indicate that forecasting wind speed is feasible using past records of wind speed alone, but the maximum lead time for the data was found to be 14 h. The results show that different techniques would lead to different results, where the choice between them is not easy. Thus, decision making has to be informed of these modeling results and decisions should be arrived at on the basis of an understanding of inherent uncertainties. The results show that both GEP and ANN are equally credible selections and even MLR should not be dismissed, as it has its uses.

  15. Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes.

    PubMed

    Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M A; Johnson, Neil F

    2014-01-10

    Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

  16. Short-Term Forecasting of Taiwanese Earthquakes Using a Universal Model of Fusion-Fission Processes

    PubMed Central

    Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M. A.; Johnson, Neil F.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow. PMID:24406467

  17. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

    PubMed Central

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. Methods and Results We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (P<0.01). These results were consistent by sex. Conclusions These findings highlight potential shortcomings of using short-term risk tools for primary prevention strategies because a substantial proportion of Peruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. PMID:26254303

  18. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  19. On earthquake prediction in Japan.

    PubMed

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author's view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology - on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors. PMID:24213204

  20. On Earthquake Prediction in Japan

    PubMed Central

    UYEDA, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan’s National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author’s view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology — on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors. PMID:24213204

  1. Short-term earthquake forecasting based on an epidemic clustering model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    . The implementation of this step could be problematic for seismicity characterized by long-term recurrence. However, the separation of the data base of the data base collected in the past in two separate sections (one on which the best fit of the parameters is carried out, and the other on which the hypothesis is tested) can be a viable solution, known as retrospective-forward testing. In this study we show examples of application of the above mentioned concepts to the analysis of the Italian catalog of instrumental seismicity, making use of an epidemic algorithm developed to model short-term clustering features. This model, for which a precursory anomaly is just the occurrence of seismic activity, doesn't need the retrospective categorization of earthquakes in terms of foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. It was introduced more than 15 years ago and tested so far in a number of real cases. It is now being run by several seismological centers around the world in forward real-time mode for testing purposes.

  2. Short-term predictions of HIV prevalence and AIDS incidence.

    PubMed Central

    Hendriks, J. C.; Medley, G. F.; Heisterkamp, S. H.; Van Griensven, G. J.; Bindels, P. J.; Coutinho, R. A.; Van Druten, J. A.

    1992-01-01

    Reports of AIDS cases in Amsterdam up to February 1990 were used to make predictions of future cases up to 1993. Two published methods were applied, which make extrapolations from current cases and simultaneously estimate the extent of delay in reporting. The choice of the exact model greatly influenced the predictions, as did predictions for distinct transmission groups. We present results for the homo/bisexual male group, and the total population of Amsterdam. The AIDS case predictions are used to predict the HIV prevalence using the ratio of HIV prevalence to AIDS incidence and through 'back calculation'. We suggest that the ratio is a simple technique that may be used to estimate HIV prevalence. The estimated number of cumulative HIV infected homo/bisexual males in Amsterdam in January 1990 was between 2100 and 4100 in a total of 2200-4600 infected people. PMID:1499669

  3. Short-Term Price Prediction and the Selection of Indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka-Yamawaki, M.; Tokuoka, S.; Awaji, K.

    Although the prediction of the future price is known to be hard due to the strong randomness inherent in the price fluctuation, intra-day price movements are expected to be predicted by reading out the patterns observed in tick-wise price motions. Our first task on this line of thought is to identify the set of effective variables suitable for studying the problem. We have first constructed a price prediction generator that computes the best prediction by reading the data tick by tick. We report in this article the effect of the adaptive choice of the best combination of technical indicators out of ten popular indicators, and also the result of using a set of novel dimensionless dynamical indicators constructed from the local values of derivatives and the second derivatives of the price times series. We have obtained a good performance of nearly 70 percent of correctly predicted direction of motion at 10 ticks ahead of the prediction time by means of adaptive choice of the technical indicators, and even better performance in the second attempt of using the two dimensionless dynamical indicators.

  4. Long- and short-term triggering and modulation of mud volcano eruptions by earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonini, Marco; Rudolph, Maxwell L.; Manga, Michael

    2016-03-01

    Earthquakes can trigger the eruption of mud. We use eruptions in Azerbaijan, Italy, Romania, Japan, Andaman Islands, Pakistan, Taiwan, Indonesia, and California to probe the nature of stress changes that induce new eruptions and modulate ongoing eruptions. Dynamic stresses produced by earthquakes are usually inferred to be the dominant triggering mechanism; however static stress changes acting on the feeder systems of mud volcanoes may also play a role. In Azerbaijan, eruptions within 2-10 fault lengths from the epicenter are favored in the year following earthquakes where the static stress changes cause compression of the mud source and unclamp feeder dikes. In Romania, Taiwan, and some Italian sites, increased activity is also favored where the static stress changes act to unclamp feeder dikes, but responses occur within days. The eruption in the Andaman Islands, and those of the Niikappu mud volcanoes, Japan are better correlated with amplitude of dynamic stresses produced by seismic waves. Similarly, a new island that emerged off the coast of Pakistan in 2013 was likely triggered by dynamic stresses, enhanced by directivity. At the southern end of the Salton Sea, California earthquakes increase the gas flux at small mud volcanoes. Responses are best correlated with dynamic stresses. The comparison of responses in these nine settings indicates that dynamic stresses are most often correlated with triggering, although permanent stress changes as small as, and possibly smaller than, 0.1 bar may be sufficient to also influence eruptions. Unclamping stresses with magnitude similar to Earth tides (0.01 bar) persist over time and may play a role in triggering delayed responses. Unclamping stresses may be important contributors to short-term triggering only if they exceed 0.1-1 bar.

  5. Very short-term earthquake precursors from GPS signal interference: Case studies on moderate and large earthquakes in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, Yu-Lien; Cheng, Kai-Chien; Wang, Wei-Hau; Yu, Shui-Beih

    2016-04-01

    We set up a GPS network with 17 Continuous GPS (CGPS) stations in southwestern Taiwan to monitor real-time crustal deformation. We found that systematic perturbations in GPS signals occurred just a few minutes prior to the occurrence of several moderate and large earthquakes, including the recent 2013 Nantou (ML = 6.5) and Rueisuei (ML = 6.4) earthquakes in Taiwan. The anomalous pseudorange readings were several millimeters higher or lower than those in the background time period. These systematic anomalies were found as a result of interference of GPS L-band signals by electromagnetic emissions (EMs) prior to the mainshocks. The EMs may occur in the form of harmonic or ultra-wide-band radiation and can be generated during the formation of Mode I cracks at the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We estimated the directivity of the likely EM sources by calculating the inner product of the position vector from a GPS station to a given satellite and the vector of anomalous ground motions recorded by the GPS. The results showed that the predominant inner product generally occurred when the satellite was in the direction either toward or away from the epicenter with respect to the GPS network. Our findings suggest that the GPS network may serve as a powerful tool to detect very short-term earthquake precursors and presumably to locate a large earthquake before it occurs.

  6. Sea surface temperature and short term climate predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andronache, Constantin

    2013-03-01

    Atmospheric processes have a relatively short memory of initial conditions of about two weeks for detailed daily weather prediction. Nevertheless, skilful seasonal forecast is possible in the presence of slow varying boundary conditions (BC) of the atmosphere, such as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over large oceanic regions. These conditions typically evolve on a much slower time scale than daily weather events and atmospheric predictability can be increased as long as the future evolution of such BC can be predicted. Given the importance of SSTA in the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere, it is of interest to investigate the nature of temporal persistence of large-scale SSTA in the global ocean. We use the global SSTA and investigate possible sources of predictability at seasonal time scale and its impact in various regions of the ocean. Data used are the NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). We show that: 1) SSTA has a persistence that depends largely on regional location in the global ocean; 2) A given SSTA distribution from a particular month, can have corresponding similar configurations in the past, largely due to the recurrence of ENSO events which affect SSTA distribution over vast regions of the global ocean.

  7. Predicting Short-Term Remembering as Boundedly Optimal Strategy Choice.

    PubMed

    Howes, Andrew; Duggan, Geoffrey B; Kalidindi, Kiran; Tseng, Yuan-Chi; Lewis, Richard L

    2016-07-01

    It is known that, on average, people adapt their choice of memory strategy to the subjective utility of interaction. What is not known is whether an individual's choices are boundedly optimal. Two experiments are reported that test the hypothesis that an individual's decisions about the distribution of remembering between internal and external resources are boundedly optimal where optimality is defined relative to experience, cognitive constraints, and reward. The theory makes predictions that are tested against data, not fitted to it. The experiments use a no-choice/choice utility learning paradigm where the no-choice phase is used to elicit a profile of each participant's performance across the strategy space and the choice phase is used to test predicted choices within this space. They show that the majority of individuals select strategies that are boundedly optimal. Further, individual differences in what people choose to do are successfully predicted by the analysis. Two issues are discussed: (a) the performance of the minority of participants who did not find boundedly optimal adaptations, and (b) the possibility that individuals anticipate what, with practice, will become a bounded optimal strategy, rather than what is boundedly optimal during training.

  8. Model for predicting short-term mortality of severe sepsis

    PubMed Central

    Adrie, Christophe; Francais, Adrien; Alvarez-Gonzalez, Antonio; Mounier, Roman; Azoulay, Elie; Zahar, Jean-Ralph; Clec'h, Christophe; Goldgran-Toledano, Dany; Hammer, Laure; Descorps-Declere, Adrien; Jamali, Samir; Timsit, Jean-Francois

    2009-01-01

    Introduction To establish a prognostic model for predicting 14-day mortality in ICU patients with severe sepsis overall and according to place of infection acquisition and to sepsis episode number. Methods In this prospective multicentre observational study on a multicentre database (OUTCOMEREA) including data from 12 ICUs, 2268 patients with 2737 episodes of severe sepsis were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 1458) and a validation cohort (n = 810). Up to four consecutive severe sepsis episodes per patient occurring within the first 28 ICU days were included. We developed a prognostic model for predicting death within 14 days after each episode, based on patient data available at sepsis onset. Results Independent predictors of death were logistic organ dysfunction (odds ratio (OR), 1.22 per point, P < 10-4), septic shock (OR, 1.40; P = 0.01), rank of severe sepsis episode (1 reference, 2: OR, 1.26; P = 0.10 ≥ 3: OR, 2.64; P < 10-3), multiple sources of infection (OR; 1.45, P = 0.03), simplified acute physiology score II (OR, 1.02 per point; P < 10-4), McCabe score ([greater than or equal to]2) (OR, 1.96; P < 10-4), and number of chronic co-morbidities (1: OR, 1.75; P < 10-3, ≥ 2: OR, 2.24, P < 10-3). Validity of the model was good in whole cohorts (AUC-ROC, 0.76; 95%CI, 0.74 to 0.79; and HL Chi-square: 15.3 (P = 0.06) for all episodes pooled). Conclusions In ICU patients, a prognostic model based on a few easily obtained variables is effective in predicting death within 14 days after the first to fourth episode of severe sepsis complicating community-, hospital-, or ICU-acquired infection. PMID:19454002

  9. Improvement of short-term numerical wind predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bedard, Joel

    Geophysic Model Output Statistics (GMOS) are developed to optimize the use of NWP for complex sites. GMOS differs from other MOS that are widely used by meteorological centers in the following aspects: it takes into account the surrounding geophysical parameters such as surface roughness, terrain height, etc., along with wind direction; it can be directly applied without any training, although training will further improve the results. The GMOS was applied to improve the Environment Canada GEM-LAM 2.5km forecasts at North Cape (PEI, Canada): It improves the predictions RMSE by 25-30% for all time horizons and almost all meteorological conditions; the topographic signature of the forecast error due to insufficient grid refinement is eliminated and the NWP combined with GMOS outperform the persistence from a 2h horizon, instead of 4h without GMOS. Finally, GMOS was applied at another site (Bouctouche, NB, Canada): similar improvements were observed, thus showing its general applicability. Keywords: wind energy, wind power forecast, numerical weather prediction, complex sites, model output statistics

  10. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayakawa, Masashi

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  11. Very short-term earthquake precursors from GPS signal interference based on the 2013 Nantou and Rueisuei earthquakes, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, Yu-Lien; Cheng, Kai-Chien; Wang, Wei-Hau; Yu, Shui-Beih

    2015-12-01

    We set up a GPS network with 17 Continuous GPS (CGPS) stations in southwestern Taiwan to monitor real-time crustal deformation. We found that systematic perturbations in GPS signals occurred just a few minutes prior to the 2013 Nantou (ML = 6.5) and Rueisuei (ML = 6.4) earthquakes in Taiwan. The anomalous pseudorange readings were several millimeters higher or lower than those in the background time period. These systematic anomalies were found as a result of interference of GPS L-band signals by electromagnetic emissions (EMs) prior to the mainshocks. The EMs may occur in the form of harmonic or ultra-wide-band radiation and can be generated during the formation of Mode I cracks at the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We estimated the directivity of the likely EM sources by calculating the inner product of the position vector from a GPS station to a given satellite and the vector of anomalous ground motions recorded by the GPS. The results showed that the predominant inner product generally occurred when the satellite was in the direction either toward or away from the epicenter with respect to the GPS network. Our findings suggest that the GPS network may serve as a powerful tool to detect very short-term earthquake precursors and presumably to locate a large earthquake before it occurs. Nevertheless, a direct measurement of EMs at the site of the GPS array is required in future studies to confirm this hypothesis.

  12. COMPASS-2 and VULKAN satellite system for the short-term earthquake warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulinets, S. A.; Boyarchuk, K. A.

    2004-12-01

    The beginning of the 21th century was marked by important transition - from discussions on the physical reality of the ionospheric precursors of earthquakes to the practical realization of the dedicated space projects for registration of these precursors from space. Up to now there are 3 space vehicles launched: COMPASS-1, Russia (December 2001), Quakesat, USA (June 2003), and DEMETER, France (June 2004). It was demonstrated that for the real-time monitoring of the short-term precursors in the ionosphere, it is not enough one satellite. That's why the Vulkan project was proposed - the constellation of small satellites on two altitude levels ~ 500 km, and ~ 1000 km. To check some ideas and technological developments the pre-system pilot project COMPASS-2 will be launched in the first half of 2005. the paper presents the physical background of the created satellite constellation, payload selection as a result of analysis of the previous satellite missions connected with the precursors registration, satellite orbit configuration, and the problems of the data assimilation, processing and interpretation.

  13. Modeling long- and short-term slow slip events and their interaction with large earthquakes along the Hikurangi subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shibazaki, B.; Matsuzawa, T.; Wallace, L. M.; Ito, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Recent high-resolution geodetic observations revealed the occurrence of various slow slip events (SSEs) along the Hikurangi subduction plate interfaces. Long-term SSEs with a duration of 1.5 years (e.g., Manawatu SSEs) occur at the deeper portion of the Hikurangi subduction zone, and shallow short-term SSEs with a duration of 1-3 weeks occur along the northern and central parts of the subduction zone. Wallace et al. (2012) reported a sequence of simultaneous short-term and long-term SSEs along the Hikurangi subduction zone during 2010-2011. In the present study, we perform quasi-dynamic modeling on short-term and long-term SSEs along the Hikurangi subduction zone using a rate- and state-dependent friction law, while assigning realistic configurations of the plate interface. Based on the study of interseismic coupling by Wallace et al. (2009), we set the seismogenic zone where a-b is negative. We reproduce the long-term Manawatu SSEs and short-term shallow SSEs by setting the effective stress of these zones at 2.56 MPa and 0.48-0.64 MPa, respectively. The effective stress of the Manawatu SSE zone is approximately five times larger than that of the short-term SSE zones. However, the ratio of effective stress to critical displacement of the Manawatu SSE zone is smaller than that of the short-term SSE zones. A sequence of simultaneous short-term SSEs and the long-term Manawatu SSE can be reproduced as observed by Wallace et al. (2012). Long-term SSEs often trigger short-term SSEs that are located at the shallower extension of the Manawatu SSE zone. We also investigate the interaction between the SSEs and large earthquakes. A large earthquake nucleates at the southern segment and propagates to the northern narrow seismic zones. Slips occur even at the SSE zones, and these slips contribute to the size of the earthquake. The occurrence of the various slip processes suggests heterogeneous distributions of constitutive law parameters along the Hikurangi subduction zone.

  14. Predicting Changes in Cultural Sensitivity among Students of Spanish during Short-Term Study Abroad

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinsen, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Short-term study abroad programs of less than a semester are becoming increasingly popular among undergraduate students in the United States. However, little research has examined the changes in students' cultural sensitivity through their participation in such programs or what factors may predict growth and improvement in such areas. This study…

  15. Theta coupling between V4 and prefrontal cortex predicts visual short-term memory performance.

    PubMed

    Liebe, Stefanie; Hoerzer, Gregor M; Logothetis, Nikos K; Rainer, Gregor

    2012-01-29

    Short-term memory requires communication between multiple brain regions that collectively mediate the encoding and maintenance of sensory information. It has been suggested that oscillatory synchronization underlies intercortical communication. Yet, whether and how distant cortical areas cooperate during visual memory remains elusive. We examined neural interactions between visual area V4 and the lateral prefrontal cortex using simultaneous local field potential (LFP) recordings and single-unit activity (SUA) in monkeys performing a visual short-term memory task. During the memory period, we observed enhanced between-area phase synchronization in theta frequencies (3-9 Hz) of LFPs together with elevated phase locking of SUA to theta oscillations across regions. In addition, we found that the strength of intercortical locking was predictive of the animals' behavioral performance. This suggests that theta-band synchronization coordinates action potential communication between V4 and prefrontal cortex that may contribute to the maintenance of visual short-term memories.

  16. A Strategy for Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting Based on Combined Ground and Space-Based Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Karastathis, V. K.; Minadakis, G.; Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Tramutoli, V.; Tsinganos, K.

    2014-12-01

    No standard methodologies regarding the short-term (hours, days, few weeks) forecasting of earthquakes have been widely adopted so far. However, promising approaches from ground-based (e.g. foreshocks) and space-based (e.g. thermal anomalies) observations have been described. We propose to apply a multidisciplinary strategy by performing real-time experiments towards the identification of space-time windows having increased probability beyond chance for the occurrence of strong earthquakes (M>5.5). This is a new collaborative study which will continue the best practices achieved from other projects such as the EU-FP7 PRE-EARTHQUAKE and the ongoing ISSI project LAICa. The test region covers the entire Greece which is of the highest seismicity all over western Eurasia, while closer attention will be given to the Corinth Rift (Central Greece) which is an asymmetric half-graben of high seismicity opening rapidly with geodetic extension rates up to about 15mmyr-1. Ground-based observations will mainly include seismicity, magnetometers and radon measurements while space observations will include the ones that may provide thermal anomalies, GPS and TEC. The strategy will include the development of a system operating in real-time basis with strong tools and protocols for the collection, archiving and evaluation of the different types of data. The software part of the system may incorporate three basic interfaces implemented via open source technology: (1) The up-streaming software interface for the collection and archiving of data; (2) The backend real-time software interface incorporating all the available models; (3) The frontend WEBGIS software interface that will allow for data representation and mapping. The establishment of some certain rules for issuing non-public seismic alerts is needed. Therefore, in this paper we will also discuss the significance of the proposed work for the issues of earthquake forecasting/prediction statements and what critical new

  17. Multi-parameter observation of pre-earthquake signals and their potential for short -term earthquake forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalenda, Pavel; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Bobrovskiy, Vadim; Neumann, Libor; Boborykina, Olga; Nazarevych, Andrij; Šebela, Stanka; Kvetko, Július; Shen, Wen-Bin

    2013-04-01

    We present methodologies for the multi-parameter observations of pre-earthquake phenomena and their retrospective/prospective testing. The hypothesis that the strongest earthquakes depend on the global stress field leads to global observations and a multi-parameter and multi-sensors approach. In 2012 we performed coordinated tests of several geophysical and environmental parameters, which are associated with the earthquakes preparation processes, namely: 1) Rocks deformation measurements (Kalenda et al. 2012); 2) Subterranean non-stationary electric processes (Bobrovskij 2011); 3) superconducting gravimeters (SGs) records and broadband seismometers (BS) time series (Shen et al); and 4) satellite infra-red observations (10-13 μm) measured at the top of the atmosphere (Ouzounov et al , 2011). In the retrospective test for the two most recent major events in Asia: Wenchuan earthquake (2008,China) and the latest Tohoku earthquake/tsunami (2011, Japan) our combined analysis showed a coordinated appearance of anomalies in advance (days) that could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the earthquake preparation processes. In 2012 three internal retrospective alerts were issued in advance (days) associated with the following events: M7.7 Okhotsk sea of August 14; M7.3 Honshu EQ of December 7 and M7.1 Banda sea EQ on December 10. Not all observations were able to detect anomalies before the M 7.4 Guatemala EQ of November 11. We discuss the reliability of each observation, their time lag, ability to localize and estimate the magnitude of the main shock. References Bobrovskij V. (2011): Kamchatkian Subterranean Electric Operative Forerunners of Catastrophic Earthquake with M9, occurred close to Honshu Island 2011/03/11 . IUGG Meeting Melbourne, 2011. postrer. Kalenda P. et al. (2012): Tilts, global tectonics and earthquake prediction. SWB, London, 247pp. Ozounov D. et al. (2011): Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku

  18. Predicting Time Series from Short-Term High-Dimensional Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Huanfei; Zhou, Tianshou; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

    The prediction of future values of time series is a challenging task in many fields. In particular, making prediction based on short-term data is believed to be difficult. Here, we propose a method to predict systems' low-dimensional dynamics from high-dimensional but short-term data. Intuitively, it can be considered as a transformation from the inter-variable information of the observed high-dimensional data into the corresponding low-dimensional but long-term data, thereby equivalent to prediction of time series data. Technically, this method can be viewed as an inverse implementation of delayed embedding reconstruction. Both methods and algorithms are developed. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical result, benchmark examples and real-world problems from various fields are studied.

  19. The short-term prediction of universal time and length of day using atmospheric angular momentum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freedman, A. P.; Steppe, J. A.; Dickey, J. O.; Eubanks, T. M.; Sung, L.-Y.

    1994-01-01

    The ability to predict short-term variations in the Earth's rotation has gained importance in recent years owing to more precise spacecraft tracking requirements. Universal time (UT1), that component of the Earth's orientation corresponding to the rotation angle, can be measured by number of high-precision space geodetic techniques. A Kalman filter developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) optimally combines these different data sets and generates a smoothed times series and a set of predictions for UT1, as well as for additional Earth orientation components. These UT1 predictions utilize an empirically derived random walk stochastic model for the length of the day (LOD) and require frequent and up-to-date measurements of either UT1 or LOD to keep errors from quickly accumulating. Recent studies have shown that LOD variations are correlated with changes in the Earth's axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) over timescales of several years down to as little as 8 days. AAM estimates and forecasts out to 10 days are routinely available from meteorological analysis centers; these data can supplement geodetic measurements to improve the short-term prediction of LOD and have therefore been incorporated as independent data types in the JPL Kalman filter. We find that AAM and, to a lesser extent, AAM forecast data are extremely helpful in generating accurate near-real-time estimates of UT1 and LOD and in improving short-term predictions of these quantities out to about 10 days.

  20. Short-term probabilistic earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulia, Laura; Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan; Herrmann, Marcus; Seif, Stefanie

    2016-02-01

    Laboratory experiments highlight a systematic b value decrease during the stress increase period before failure, and some large natural events are known to show a precursory decrease in the b value. However, short-term forecast models currently consider only the generic probability that an event can trigger subsequent seismicity in the near field. While the probability increase over a stationary Poissonian background is substantial, selected case studies have shown through cost-benefit analysis that the absolute main shock probability remains too low to warrant significant mitigation actions. We analyze the probabilities considering both changes in the seismicity rates and temporal changes in the b value. The precursory b value decrease in the 2009 L'Aquila case results in an additional fiftyfold probability increase for a M6.3 event. Translated into time-varying hazard and risk, these changes surpass the cost-benefit threshold for short-term evacuation.

  1. Prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying-guang

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold (POT) method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.

  2. Peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography Predicts Humeral Diaphysis Torsional Mechanical Properties With Good Short-Term Precision.

    PubMed

    Weatherholt, Alyssa M; Avin, Keith G; Hurd, Andrea L; Cox, Jacob L; Marberry, Scott T; Santoni, Brandon G; Warden, Stuart J

    2015-01-01

    Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) is a popular tool for noninvasively estimating bone mechanical properties. Previous studies have demonstrated that pQCT provides precise estimates that are good predictors of actual bone mechanical properties at popular distal imaging sites (tibia and radius). The predictive ability and precision of pQCT at more proximal sites remain unknown. The aim of the present study was to explore the predictive ability and short-term precision of pQCT estimates of mechanical properties of the midshaft humerus, a site gaining popularity for exploring the skeletal benefits of exercise. Predictive ability was determined ex vivo by assessing the ability of pQCT-derived estimates of torsional mechanical properties in cadaver humeri (density-weighted polar moment of inertia [I(P)] and polar strength-strain index [SSI(P)]) to predict actual torsional properties. Short-term precision was assessed in vivo by performing 6 repeat pQCT scans at the level of the midshaft humerus in 30 young, healthy individuals (degrees of freedom = 150), with repeat scans performed by the same and different testers and on the same and different days to explore the influences of different testers and time between repeat scans on precision errors. IP and SSI(P) both independently predicted at least 90% of the variance in ex vivo midshaft humerus mechanical properties in cadaveric bones. Overall values for relative precision error (root mean squared coefficients of variation) for in vivo measures of IP and SSI(P) at the midshaft humerus were <1.5% and were not influenced by pQCT assessments being performed by different testers or on different days. These data indicate that pQCT provides very good prediction of midshaft humerus mechanical properties with good short-term precision, with measures being robust against the influences of different testers and time between repeat scans. PMID:25454307

  3. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  4. Real time electromagnetic monitoring system used for short-term earthquakes forecast related to the seismic-active Vrancea zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanica, Dumitru; Armand Stanica, Dragos

    2016-04-01

    The existence of the pre-seismic electromagnetic signals related to the earthquakes is still under scientific debate and requires new reliable information about their possible inter-relationship. In this paper, to obtain new insights into the seismic active Vrancea zone (Romania), a 3-D magnetotelluric imaging has been used to strengthen the connection between the geodynamic model and a possible generation mechanism of the intermediate depth earthquakes. Consequently, it is considered that before an earthquake initiation, due to the torsion effect, a high stress reached inside the seismogenic volume that may generates dehydration and rupture processes of the rocks, associated with the fluid migration through the lithospheric faults system, what leads to the resistivity changes. These changes have been investigated by using ULF electromagnetic data recorded in real time at the Geodynamic Observatory Provita de Sus (GOPS), placed on the Carpathian Electrical Conductivity Anomaly (CECA) at about 100km far from the seismic active Vrancea zone. The daily mean distribution of the normalized function Bzn(f) = Bz(f)/Bperp(f) (where: Bz is vertical component of the geomagnetic field; Bperp is geomagnetic component perpendicular to strike; f is frequency in Hz) and its standard deviation are performed by using a FFT band-pass filter analysis in the ULF range 0.001Hz to 0.0083Hz, for which a 2-D geoelectrical structure under GOPS has been identified. To provide reliable information in anticipating the likelihood occurrence of an earthquake of Mw higher than 4, a statistical analysis based on standardized random variable equation has been used to identify the anomalous intervals on the new time series (Bzn*) carried out in a span of three years (2013-2015). The final conclusion is that the Bzn* shows a significant anomalous effect some days (weeks) before an impending earthquake and it should be used for short-term earthquakes forecast.

  5. Computational classifiers for predicting the short-term course of Multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) of clinical, imaging and motor evoked potentials (MEP) for predicting the short-term prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods We obtained clinical data, MRI and MEP from a prospective cohort of 51 patients and 20 matched controls followed for two years. Clinical end-points recorded were: 1) expanded disability status scale (EDSS), 2) disability progression, and 3) new relapses. We constructed computational classifiers (Bayesian, random decision-trees, simple logistic-linear regression-and neural networks) and calculated their accuracy by means of a 10-fold cross-validation method. We also validated our findings with a second cohort of 96 MS patients from a second center. Results We found that disability at baseline, grey matter volume and MEP were the variables that better correlated with clinical end-points, although their diagnostic accuracy was low. However, classifiers combining the most informative variables, namely baseline disability (EDSS), MRI lesion load and central motor conduction time (CMCT), were much more accurate in predicting future disability. Using the most informative variables (especially EDSS and CMCT) we developed a neural network (NNet) that attained a good performance for predicting the EDSS change. The predictive ability of the neural network was validated in an independent cohort obtaining similar accuracy (80%) for predicting the change in the EDSS two years later. Conclusions The usefulness of clinical variables for predicting the course of MS on an individual basis is limited, despite being associated with the disease course. By training a NNet with the most informative variables we achieved a good accuracy for predicting short-term disability. PMID:21649880

  6. Study on short term prediction using observed water quality from 8-day intervals in Nakdong river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M.; Shon, T.; Joo, J.; Kim, J.; Shin, H.

    2012-12-01

    There are lots of accidents on water quality, like green algal blooms, occurring in Nakdong river which is one of the largest river in Korea. This is because of climate change around the world. It is essential to develop scientific and quantitative assessment methods. In this study, artificial neural network based on back propagation algorithm, which is simple and flexible method, was used for forecasting the water quality on the purpose of water resources management. Especially, as used observed water quality data from 8-day intervals in Nakdong river, it makes to increase the accuracy of water quality forecast over short term. This was established for predicting the water quality factors 1, 3, and 7 days ahead. The best model, as evaluated by its performance functions with RMSE and R2, was selected and applied to established models of BOD, DO, COD, and Chl-a using artificial neural network. The results showed that the models were suitable for 1 and 3 days forecasts in particular. This method is strong and convenient to predict water quality factors over the short term easily based on observed data. It is possible to overcome and manage problems related to the water resources. In the future, this will be a powerful method because it is basically based on observed water quality data.

  7. Short term prediction of dynamic hydra precipitation activity using a microwave radiometer over Eastern Himalaya, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, S.

    2015-12-01

    First ever study of the feasibility of ground based radiometric study to predict a very short term based rain precipitation study has been conducted in eastern Himalaya, Darjeeling (27.01°N, 88.15°E, 2200 masl). Short term prediction or nowcasting relates to forecasting convective precipitation for time periods less than a few hours to avoid its effect on agriculture, aviation and lifestyle. Theoretical models involving radiometric predictions are not well understood and lack in temporal and spatial resolution. In this study specific utilization of a microwave Radiometer (Radiometrics Corporation, USA) for online monitoring of precipitable rainfall activity has been observed repeatability of data has been established. Previous few studies have shown the increase of water vapour and corresponding Brightness Temperature, but in mountain climatic conditions over Darjeeling, due to presence of fog 90 % of the year, water vapour monitoring related predictions can lead to false alarms. The measurement of blackbody emission noise in the bands of 23.8 GHz and 31.4 GHz, using a quadratic regression retrieval algorithm is converted to atmospheric parameters like integrated water vapour and liquid water content. It has been found in our study that the liquid water shows significant activity prior to precipitation events even for mild and stratiform rainfall. The alarm can be generated well 20 mins before the commencement of actual rain events even in the upper atmosphere of 6 Kms, measured by a rain radar also operating in 24 Ghz microwave band. Although few rain events were found and reported which do not respond in the microwave liquid water channel. Efforts to identify such rain events and their possible explanation is going on and shall be reported in near future. Such studies are important to predict flash flooding in the Himalayas. Darjeeling owing to its geographical conditions experiences mild to very heavy rain. Such studies help improve aspects of Himalayas as

  8. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria. PMID:25910257

  9. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  10. Neural network prediction of short-term motions of mobile objects in noisy environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawfik, Ahmed Y.; Zhu, Quiming

    1993-09-01

    The prediction of the trajectory of mobile objects is important in many robotics applications like robot motion planning and collision avoidance. In most cases, the measurements, on which predictions are based, are subject to noise and errors. This paper presents a neural network based approach for the prediction of short-term motions of mobile objects. We studied the effect of white additive noise and gaussian noise on the prediction accuracy. An adaptive continued learning strategy is used to reduce the prediction error and accurately track the mobile objects. An empirical study was conducted to determine the architectural features of the network (number of layers and number of neurons in each layer) and the learning parameters (learning rate, momentum factor and convergence criterion) that minimize the mean squared prediction error giving an acceptable time response. The mean squared error, and the average time performance of the network (number of learning steps before convergence) are used as performance criteria. The network results are compared with those obtained from a linear regression algorithm. The neural network outperformed the linear regression in accurately predicting swiftly changing motion patterns.

  11. Prediction of Non-Genotoxic Carcinogenicity Based on Genetic Profiles of Short Term Exposure Assays

    PubMed Central

    Pérez, Luis Orlando; González-José, Rolando; García, Pilar Peral

    2016-01-01

    Non-genotoxic carcinogens are substances that induce tumorigenesis by non-mutagenic mechanisms and long term rodent bioassays are required to identify them. Recent studies have shown that transcription profiling can be applied to develop early identifiers for long term phenotypes. In this study, we used rat liver expression profiles from the NTP (National Toxicology Program, Research Triangle Park, USA) DrugMatrix Database to construct a gene classifier that can distinguish between non-genotoxic carcinogens and other chemicals. The model was based on short term exposure assays (3 days) and the training was limited to oxidative stressors, peroxisome proliferators and hormone modulators. Validation of the predictor was performed on independent toxicogenomic data (TG-GATEs, Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System, Osaka, Japan). To build our model we performed Random Forests together with a recursive elimination algorithm (VarSelRF). Gene set enrichment analysis was employed for functional interpretation. A total of 770 microarrays comprising 96 different compounds were analyzed and a predictor of 54 genes was built. Prediction accuracy was 0.85 in the training set, 0.87 in the test set and increased with increasing concentration in the validation set: 0.6 at low dose, 0.7 at medium doses and 0.81 at high doses. Pathway analysis revealed gene prominence of cellular respiration, energy production and lipoprotein metabolism. The biggest target of toxicogenomics is accurately predict the toxicity of unknown drugs. In this analysis, we presented a classifier that can predict non-genotoxic carcinogenicity by using short term exposure assays. In this approach, dose level is critical when evaluating chemicals at early time points.

  12. Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2005-01-01

    The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.

  13. Application of Grey Model GM(1, 1) to Ultra Short-Term Predictions of Universal Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Yu; Guo, Min; Zhao, Danning; Cai, Hongbing; Hu, Dandan

    2016-03-01

    A mathematical model known as one-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) has been herein employed successfully for the ultra short-term (<10days) predictions of universal time (UT1-UTC). The results of predictions are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other methods. It is shown that the accuracy of the predictions is comparable with that obtained by other prediction methods. The proposed method is able to yield an exact prediction even though only a few observations are provided. Hence it is very valuable in the case of a small size dataset since traditional methods, e.g., least-squares (LS) extrapolation, require longer data span to make a good forecast. In addition, these results can be obtained without making any assumption about an original dataset, and thus is of high reliability. Another advantage is that the developed method is easy to use. All these reveal a great potential of the GM(1, 1) model for UT1-UTC predictions.

  14. Comparison of observed and predicted short-term tracer gas concentrations in the atmosphere

    SciTech Connect

    Cotter, S.J.; Miller, C.W.; Lin, W.C.T.

    1985-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory is in the process of conducting a series of atmospheric tracer studies. The inert gas sulfurhexafluoride is released from a height of 62 m for 15 min and concentrations in air are measured on sampling arcs up to 30 km downwind of the release point. Maximum 15 min. air concentrations from 14 of these tracer tests have been compared with the ground-level, centerline air concentration predicted with a Gaussian plume atmospheric transport model using eight different sets of atmospheric dispersion parameters. Preliminary analysis of the results from these comparisons indicates that the dispersion parameters developed at Juelich, West Germany, based on tracers released from a height of 50 m, give the best overall agreement between the predicted and observed values. The median value of the ratio of predicted to observed air concentrations for this set of parameters is 1.3, and the correlation coefficient between the log of the predictions and the log of the observations is 0.72. For the commonly used Pasquill-Gifford dispersion parameters, the values of these same statistics are 4.4 and 0.68, respectively. The Gaussian plume model is widely used to predict air concentrations resulting from short-term radionuclide release to the atmosphere. The results of comparisons such as these must be considered whenever the Gaussian model is used for such purposes. 22 references, 3 tables.

  15. Physical bases of the generation of short-term earthquake precursors: A complex model of ionization-induced geophysical processes in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulinets, S. A.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Karelin, A. V.; Davidenko, D. V.

    2015-07-01

    This paper describes the current understanding of the interaction between geospheres from a complex set of physical and chemical processes under the influence of ionization. The sources of ionization involve the Earth's natural radioactivity and its intensification before earthquakes in seismically active regions, anthropogenic radioactivity caused by nuclear weapon testing and accidents in nuclear power plants and radioactive waste storage, the impact of galactic and solar cosmic rays, and active geophysical experiments using artificial ionization equipment. This approach treats the environment as an open complex system with dissipation, where inherent processes can be considered in the framework of the synergistic approach. We demonstrate the synergy between the evolution of thermal and electromagnetic anomalies in the Earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere. This makes it possible to determine the direction of the interaction process, which is especially important in applications related to short-term earthquake prediction. That is why the emphasis in this study is on the processes proceeding the final stage of earthquake preparation; the effects of other ionization sources are used to demonstrate that the model is versatile and broadly applicable in geophysics.

  16. V4 activity predicts the strength of visual short-term memory representations.

    PubMed

    Sligte, Ilja G; Scholte, H Steven; Lamme, Victor A F

    2009-06-10

    Recent studies have shown the existence of a form of visual memory that lies intermediate of iconic memory and visual short-term memory (VSTM), in terms of both capacity (up to 15 items) and the duration of the memory trace (up to 4 s). Because new visual objects readily overwrite this intermediate visual store, we believe that it reflects a weak form of VSTM with high capacity that exists alongside a strong but capacity-limited form of VSTM. In the present study, we isolated brain activity related to weak and strong VSTM representations using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found that activity in visual cortical area V4 predicted the strength of VSTM representations; activity was low when there was no VSTM, medium when there was a weak VSTM representation regardless of whether this weak representation was available for report or not, and high when there was a strong VSTM representation. Altogether, this study suggests that the high capacity yet weak VSTM store is represented in visual parts of the brain. Allegedly, only some of these VSTM traces are amplified by parietal and frontal regions and as a consequence reside in traditional or strong VSTM. The additional weak VSTM representations remain available for conscious access and report when attention is redirected to them yet are overwritten as soon as new visual stimuli hit the eyes. PMID:19515911

  17. Using Claims Data to Generate Clinical Flags Predicting Short-term Risk of Continued Psychiatric Hospitalizations

    PubMed Central

    Stein, Bradley D.; Pangilinan, Maria; Sorbero, Mark J; Marcus, Sue; Donahue, Sheila; Xu, Yan; Smith, Thomas E; Essock, Susan M

    2014-01-01

    Objective As health information technology advances, efforts to use administrative data to inform real-time treatment planning for individuals are increasing, despite few empirical studies demonstrating that such administrative data predict subsequent clinical events. Medicaid claims for individuals with frequent psychiatric hospitalizations were examined to test how well patterns of service use predict subsequent high short-term risk of continued psychiatric hospitalizations. Methods Medicaid claims files from New York and Pennsylvania were used to identify Medicaid recipients aged 18-64 with two or more inpatient psychiatric admissions during a target year ending March 31, 2009. Definitions from a quality-improvement initiative were used to identify patterns of inpatient and outpatient service use and prescription fills suggestive of clinical concerns. Generalized estimating equations and Markov models were applied to examine claims through March, 2011, to see what patterns of service use were sufficiently predictive of additional hospitalizations to be clinically useful. Results 11,801 unique individuals in New York and 1,859 in Pennsylvania identified met the cohort definition. In both Pennsylvania and New York, multiple recent hospitalizations, but not failure to use outpatient services or failure to fill medication prescriptions, were significant predictors of high risk of continued frequent hospitalizations, with odds ratios greater than 4.0. Conclusions Administrative data can be used to identify individuals at high risk of continued frequent hospitalizations. Such information could be used by payers and system administrators to authorize special services (e.g., mobile outreach) for such individuals as part of efforts to promote service engagement and prevent rapid rehospitalizations. PMID:25022360

  18. Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley

    2012-01-01

    The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center located at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has been conducting testbed activities aimed at transitioning satellite products to National Weather Service operational end users for the last 10 years. SPoRT is a NASA/NOAA funded project that has set the bar for transition of products to operational end users through a paradigm of understanding forecast challenges and forecaster needs, displaying products in end users decision support systems, actively assessing the operational impact of these products, and improving products based on forecaster feedback. Aiming for quality partnerships rather than a large quantity of data users, SPoRT has become a community leader in training operational forecasters on the use of up-and-coming satellite data through the use of legacy instruments and proxy data. Traditionally, SPoRT has supplied satellite imagery and products from NASA instruments such as the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). However, recently, SPoRT has been funded by the GOES-R and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Grounds to accelerate the transition of selected imagery and products to help improve forecaster awareness of upcoming operational data from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This presentation provides background on the SPoRT Center, the SPoRT paradigm, and some example products that SPoRT is excited to work with forecasters to evaluate.

  19. A Global Overview of Short-Term Foreshocks and Their Predictive Value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.; Avlonitis, M.; Di Fiore, B.; Minadakis, G.

    2014-12-01

    Foreshocks preceding mainshocks in the short-term, ranging from minutes to a few months prior the mainshock, have been known from several decades ago. Understanding the generation mechanisms of foreshocks was supported by seismicity observations and statistics, laboratory experiments, theoretical considerations and simulation results. However, important issues remain open. For example, (1) Why only some mainshocks are preceded by foreshocks and not others? (2) Is the mainshock size dependent on some attributes of the foreshock sequence? (3) Is that possible to discriminate foreshocks from other seismicity styles (e.g. swarms)? To approach possible replies to these issues we reviewed about 400 papers, reports, books and other documents referring to foreshocks as well as to relevant laboratory experiments. We found that the ratio of mainshocks preceded by foreshocks increases with the increase of monitoring capabilities and that foreshock activity is dependent on source mechanical properties and favoured by material heterogeneity. Also, the mainshock size does not depend on the largest foreshock size but rather by the foreshock area. Seismicity statistics may account for an effective discrimination of foreshocks from other seismicity styles. Our literature survey showed that only the last years the seismicity catalogs organized in some well monitored areas are adequately complete to search foreshock activities. Therefore, we investigated for a set of "positive foreshock examples" covering a wide range of mainshock magnitudes from 4.5 to 9 in Japan, S. California, Italy and Greece. The positive examples used indicate that foreshocks bear important value not only for the mainshock prediction but also for the operational discrimination between different styles of activity such as background seismicity, swarms, foreshocks, aftershocks.

  20. Foreshocks and short-term hazard assessment of large earthquakes using complex networks: the case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalaki, Eleni; Spiliotis, Konstantinos; Siettos, Constantinos; Minadakis, Georgios; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

    2016-08-01

    The monitoring of statistical network properties could be useful for the short-term hazard assessment of the occurrence of mainshocks in the presence of foreshocks. Using successive connections between events acquired from the earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for the case of the L'Aquila (Italy) mainshock (Mw = 6.3) of 6 April 2009, we provide evidence that network measures, both global (average clustering coefficient, small-world index) and local (betweenness centrality) ones, could potentially be exploited for forecasting purposes both in time and space. Our results reveal statistically significant increases in the topological measures and a nucleation of the betweenness centrality around the location of the epicenter about 2 months before the mainshock. The results of the analysis are robust even when considering either large or off-centered the main event space windows.

  1. Predicting Employment Outcomes for Consumers in Community College Short-Term Training Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flannery, K. Brigid; Benz, Michael R.; Yovanoff, Paul; Kato, Mary McGrath; Lindstrom, Lauren

    2011-01-01

    Postsecondary education has been linked to improved access to employment opportunities for individuals with and without disabilities. The purpose of this study was to determine factors associated with increased employment outcomes for Vocational Rehabilitation consumers enrolled in community college short term occupational skill training programs.…

  2. A mathematical approach for predicting long-term indoor radon concentrations from short-term measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Ahmady, K.K.; Hintenlang, D.E.

    1995-12-31

    Assessment of long-term radon concentrations from short-term testing results are of significant importance when radon risk assessment and liability issues are considered. These issues are based on the figure of annual exposure to indoor radon while radon measurement practices are mainly followed the EPA short-term testing protocols. A mathematical framework has been developed that facilities non-statistical approach to construct the relationship between the short-term indoor radon measurements and the long term annual indoor radon levels. This approach was based on the application of the time-dependent indoor radon concentrations calculated from the corresponding contributions of indoor radon driving forces for different time periods having a reference starting time. The approach utilizes an analytical procedure that is based on the solutions of the mass balance equation for the radon gas in the indoor environment. The solutions are applied through semi-analytical modeling of time-dependent indoor radon concentrations. This treatment provides a powerful tool and procedure to assess long-term indoor radon concentrations from short-term testing results.

  3. Order Short-Term Memory Capacity Predicts Nonword Reading and Spelling in First and Second Grade

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binamé, Florence; Poncelet, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Recent theories of short-term memory (STM) distinguish between item information, which reflects the temporary activation of long-term representations stored in the language system, and serial-order information, which is encoded in a specific representational system that is independent of the language network. Some studies examining the…

  4. Attentional Demands Predict Short-Term Memory Load Response in Posterior Parietal Cortex

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magen, Hagit; Emmanouil, Tatiana-Aloi; McMains, Stephanie A.; Kastner, Sabine; Treisman, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Limits to the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) indicate a maximum storage of only 3 or 4 items. Recently, it has been suggested that activity in a specific part of the brain, the posterior parietal cortex (PPC), is correlated with behavioral estimates of VSTM capacity and might reflect a capacity-limited store. In three experiments that…

  5. An Application in the Ultra Short-term Prediction of UT1--UTC Based on Grey System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Y.; Zhao, D. N.; Cai, H. B.

    2016-05-01

    This work presents an application of the grey system model in the prediction of UT1--UTC. The short-term prediction of UT1--UTC is studied up to 30 days by means of the grey system model. The EOP (Earth orientation parameter) C04 time series with daily values from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) serve as the data base. The results of the prediction are analyzed and compared with those obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN), the combination of least squares (LS) and autoregressive (AR) model (LS+AR), and the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC). The accuracies of the ultra short-term (1--10 d) prediction are comparable to those obtained by the other prediction methods. The presented method is easy to use.

  6. Can we predict short-term side effects of methylphenidate immediate-release?

    PubMed

    Karabekiroglu, Koray; Yazgan, Yanki M; Dedeoglu, Ceyda

    2008-01-01

    Objective. In children and adolescents who were prescribed immediate-release methylphenidate (MPH-IR) for the first time, we aimed to investigate the effect of gender, psychiatric co-morbidity and the baseline severity of clinical symptoms on the short-term side-effects of the medication. Method. In a clinical sample, over a period of 6 months, all MPH-naive patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (N=90; male, n=73; female, n=17) age: 9.0±2.2 years (5-16 years)) were included. Patients were prescribed MPH-IR 10-30 mg/day (17.6±4.95). The assessment included structured measurements, including the Turgay Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition (DSM-IV)-Based Child and Adolescent Behavior Disorders Screening and Rating Scale (T-DSM-IV-S) (parents and teachers), Conners' Teacher Rating Scale for ADHD-Short version (teachers). Parents also completed the "Barkley Stimulants' Side Effects Rating Scale" (BSSERS) at baseline and on the third, seventh and 15th days of medication. Results. Repeated measures multiple ANOVA revealed an overall significant difference in BSSERS between the baseline measures and the 15th day (P<0.01). On the 15th day, only the "loss of appetite" item severity scores increased (P=0.001), whereas the scores of "irritability", "proneness to cry", "anxiety", "nail biting" and "euphoria" items decreased significantly. In post hoc analyses, when subjects whose side effects increased and did not increase were compared, chi-square tests revealed a significant difference (P=0.029) only for the presence of co-morbidity, and no difference for the gender, age, dosage of MPH, and the baseline severity of inattentiveness and/or hyperactivity. Discussion. The only significant increase during MPH treatment was for the "loss of appetite" item on BSSERS. Our results suggest that some of the BSSERS items may represent both the ADHD symptoms and the side effects. When overall BSSERS item severity is considered

  7. Hybrid ensemble-3DVar radar data assimilation for the short-term prediction of convective storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carley, Jacob R.

    This two-part study develops and tests a hybrid ensemble-3DVar radar data assimilation system for the short-term prediction of convective storms. A key component of this work is the use of the operational regional numerical weather prediction infrastructure of the United States National Weather Service (NWS). Recently, the NWS's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system (GSI) has been extended to include a hybrid ensemble-3DVar assimilation capability, allowing for the inclusion of flow dependent background error statistics in the 3DVar cost function. A convenient aspect of the hybrid ensemble-3DVar approach is its resource manageability. The initial implementation of the system may only use 3DVar and the hybrid aspect can be implemented gradually where additional ensemble members can be added as computational resources allow. Therefore the hybrid ensemble-3DVar method may be a particularly appealing approach for an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) center where resources are at a premium. The first part of this study focuses on the development of a storm-scale, hybrid ensemble-3DVar radar data assimilation system. An observation operator for radar reflectivity is introduced, static background errors for additional hydrometeor control variables are obtained, an ensemble prediction system is implemented, and an algorithm is developed to assimilate radar observations. This system is applied to a real-data case which exhibits varying convective modes. It is found that, when compared to 3DVar, the hybrid ensemble-3DVar assimilation approach provides a closer fit to observations, produces cold pools which are much stronger than what was observed in the 3DVar experiment, and all experiments have a vertical velocity field at the final analysis time which exhibits generally weak upward vertical motion fields. The weak vertical motion field is hypothesized to be a result of the lack of vertical velocity control variable and thus there is no coupling amongst

  8. Short-Term Mortality Prediction for Acute Lung Injury Patients: External Validation of the ARDSNet Prediction Model

    PubMed Central

    Damluji, Abdulla; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A.; Sevransky, Jonathan E.; Fan, Eddy; Shanholtz, Carl; Wojnar, Margaret; Pronovost, Peter J.; Needham, Dale M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective An independent cohort of acute lung injury (ALI) patients was used to evaluate the external validity of a simple prediction model for short-term mortality previously developed using data from ARDS Network (ARDSNet) trials. Design, Setting, and Patients Data for external validation were obtained from a prospective cohort study of ALI patients from 13 ICUs at four teaching hospitals in Baltimore, Maryland. Measurements and Main Results Of the 508 non-trauma, ALI patients eligible for this analysis, 234 (46%) died in-hospital. Discrimination of the ARDSNet prediction model for inhospital mortality, evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUC), was 0.67 for our external validation dataset versus 0.70 and 0.68 using APACHE II and the ARDSNet validation dataset, respectively. In evaluating calibration of the model, predicted versus observed in-hospital mortality for the external validation dataset was similar for both low risk (ARDSNet model score = 0) and high risk (score = 3 or 4+) patient strata. However, for intermediate risk (score = 1 or 2) patients, observed in-hospital mortality was substantially higher than predicted mortality (25.3% vs. 16.5% and 40.6% vs. 31.0% for score = 1 and 2, respectively). Sensitivity analyses limiting our external validation data set to only those patients meeting the ARDSNet trial eligibility criteria and to those who received mechanical ventilation in compliance with the ARDSNet ventilation protocol, did not substantially change the model’s discrimination or improve its calibration. Conclusions Evaluation of the ARDSNet prediction model using an external ALI cohort demonstrated similar discrimination of the model as was observed with the ARDSNet validation dataset. However, there were substantial differences in observed versus predicted mortality among intermediate risk ALI patients. The ARDSNet model provided reasonable, but imprecise, estimates of predicted mortality when applied to our

  9. Differences in Light Interception in Grass Monocultures Predict Short-Term Competitive Outcomes under Productive Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Vojtech, Eva; Turnbull, Lindsay A.; Hector, Andy

    2007-01-01

    Due to its inherent asymmetry, competition for light is thought to cause loss of diversity from eutrophied systems. However, most of the work on this topic in grasslands has been phenomenological and has not measured light directly. We present the results of one of the few mechanistic experiments investigating the outcome of short-term competition using measurements of light interception from monocultures of five perennial grass species grown under fertilized and irrigated conditions. We found that the level of incident light intercepted by each species in monoculture, a direct measure of resource-reduction ability, was an excellent predictor of the relative competitive effect in pairwise mixtures. Competition for light was asymmetric in relation to differences in light intercepting ability. Our results are consistent with the idea that when light is a limiting resource, competition between species for this resource can be asymmetric, contributing to high dominance and low diversity. PMID:17565366

  10. Earthquake Prediction is Coming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MOSAIC, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Describes (1) several methods used in earthquake research, including P:S ratio velocity studies, dilatancy models; and (2) techniques for gathering base-line data for prediction using seismographs, tiltmeters, laser beams, magnetic field changes, folklore, animal behavior. The mysterious Palmdale (California) bulge is discussed. (CS)

  11. Pre-earthquake signatures in atmosphere/ionosphere and their potential for short-term earthquake forecasting. Case studies for 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Davidenko, Dmitry; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; García-Rigo, Alberto; Petrrov, Leonid; Hatzopoulos, Nikolaos; Kafatos, Menas

    2016-04-01

    We are conducting validation studies on temporal-spatial pattern of pre-earthquake signatures in atmosphere and ionosphere associated with M>7 earthquakes in 2015. Our approach is based on the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) physical concept integrated with Multi-sensor-networking analysis (MSNA) of several non-correlated observations that can potentially yield predictive information. In this study we present two type of results: 1/ prospective testing of MSNA-LAIC for M7+ in 2015 and 2:/ retrospective analysis of temporal-spatial variations in atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the two M7.8 and M7.3 in Nepal and M8.3 Chile earthquakes. During the prospective test 18 earthquakes M>7 occurred worldwide, from which 15 were alerted in advance with the time lag between 2 up to 30 days and with different level of accuracy. The retrospective analysis included different physical parameters from space: Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR obtained from NPOES, NASA/AQUA) on the top of the atmosphere, Atmospheric potential (ACP obtained from NASA assimilation models) and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). Concerning M7.8 in Nepal of April 24, rapid increase of OLR reached the maximum on April 21-22. GPS/TEC data indicate maximum value during April 22-24 periods. Strong negative TEC anomaly was detected in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) on April 21st and strong positive on April 24th, 2015. For May 12 M7.3 aftershock similar pre- earthquake patterns in OLR and GPS/TEC were observed. Concerning the M8.3 Chile of Sept 16, the OLR strongest transient feature was observed of Sept 12. GPS/TEC analysis data confirm abnormal values on Sept 14. Also on the same day the degradation of EIA and disappearance of the crests of EIA as is characteristic for pre-dawn and early morning hours (11 LT) was observed. On Sept 16 co-seismic ionospheric signatures consistent with defined circular

  12. Predicting Predictable: Accuracy and Reliability of Earthquake Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake forecast/prediction is an uncertain profession. The famous Gutenberg-Richter relationship limits magnitude range of prediction to about one unit. Otherwise, the statistics of outcomes would be related to the smallest earthquakes and may be misleading when attributed to the largest earthquakes. Moreover, the intrinsic uncertainty of earthquake sizing allows self-deceptive picking of justification "just from below" the targeted magnitude range. This might be important encouraging evidence but, by no means, can be a "helpful" additive to statistics of a rigid testing that determines reliability and efficiency of a farecast/prediction method. Usually, earthquake prediction is classified in respect to expectation time while overlooking term-less identification of earthquake prone areas, as well as spatial accuracy. The forecasts are often made for a "cell" or "seismic region" whose area is not linked to the size of target earthquakes. This might be another source for making a wrong choice in parameterization of an forecast/prediction method and, eventually, for unsatisfactory performance in a real-time application. Summing up, prediction of time and location of an earthquake of a certain magnitude range can be classified into categories listed in the Table below - Classification of earthquake prediction accuracy Temporal, in years Spatial, in source zone size (L) Long-term 10 Long-range Up to 100 Intermediate-term 1 Middle-range 5-10 Short-term 0.01-0.1 Narrow-range 2-3 Immediate 0.001 Exact 1 Note that a wide variety of possible combinations that exist is much larger than usually considered "short-term exact" one. In principle, such an accurate statement about anticipated seismic extreme might be futile due to the complexities of the Earth's lithosphere, its blocks-and-faults structure, and evidently nonlinear dynamics of the seismic process. The observed scaling of source size and preparation zone with earthquake magnitude implies exponential scales for

  13. Short-term pre-2004 seismic subsidence near South Andaman: Is this a precursor slow slip prior to a megathrust earthquake?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, J.; Rajendran, C. P.

    2015-11-01

    We report here on the campaign GPS data from the Andaman Islands just previous to the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. The campaign-mode acquisitions at Port Blair showed that the site started to subside between 2003 and 2004. In addition, during this period, the horizontal displacement of Port Blair with respect to Indian plate, deduced from 1996 to 2000 GPS data, changed its orientation to that obtained during the 26th Dec 2004 co-seismic. This short-term subsidence can be modeled as slip in the up-dip portion of the fault, a slip that is equivalent to an earthquake with moment magnitude of 6.3. Previously, slow slip was thought to appear at intermediate depths roughly 35-55 km but simple models of the deformation at this single site suggest slow slip at much shallower depth than this. This observation of subsidence obtained by GPS methods is in rough agreement with subsidence observed from tide gauge data. Campaign-mode GPS data between 1996 and 2000 suggest uplift for Port Blair during the inter-seismic period and so does the reported field observations of interseismic micro-atoll emergence. Lack of exposed land with GPS stations along the southern part of the thrust fault deprive of arriving at any indication of this preseismic subsidence in those areas. Although GPS data is lacking the geological indices reported from some sites on the Alaskan Coast, for example, imply short-term subsidence just previous to the great 1964 earthquake. The pre-earthquake subsidence recorded in Port Blair, therefore, may have global implications as a precursor signal of great earthquakes at least along some of the subduction zones.

  14. Autonomic Function Predicts Fitness Response to Short-Term High-Intensity Interval Training.

    PubMed

    Kiviniemi, A M; Tulppo, M P; Eskelinen, J J; Savolainen, A M; Kapanen, J; Heinonen, I H A; Hautala, A J; Hannukainen, J C; Kalliokoski, K K

    2015-11-01

    We tested the hypothesis that baseline cardiac autonomic function and its acute response to all-out interval exercise explains individual fitness responses to high-intensity interval training (HIT). Healthy middle-aged sedentary men performed HIT (n=12, 4-6×30 s of all-out cycling efforts with 4-min recovery) or aerobic training (AET, n=9, 40-60 min at 60% of peak workload in exercise test [Loadpeak]), comprising 6 sessions within 2 weeks. Low (LF) and high frequency (HF) power of R-R interval oscillation were analyzed from data recorded at supine and standing position (5+5 min) every morning during the intervention. A significant training effect (p< 0.001), without a training*group interaction, was observed in Loadpeak and peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak). Pre-training supine LF/HF ratio, an estimate of sympathovagal balance, correlated with training outcome in Loadpeak (Spearman's rho [rs]=-0.74, p=0.006) and VO2peak (rs=- 0.59, p=0.042) in the HIT but not the AET group. Also, the mean change in the standing LF/HF ratio in the morning after an acute HIT exercise during the 1(st) week of intervention correlated with training response in Loadpeak (rs=- 0.68, p=0.014) and VO2peak (rs=-0.60, p=0.039) with HIT but not with AET. In conclusion, pre-training cardiac sympathovagal balance and its initial alterations in response to acute HIT exercise were related to fitness responses to short-term HIT.

  15. Empirical mode decomposition analysis of Seismo-ionospheric coupling phenomena for finding the short term earthquakes precursor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sondhiya, Deepak Kumar; Kasde, Satish Kumar; Raghuwanshi, Shailesh Kumar

    2016-07-01

    Large numbers of papers have reported on anomalous variation of foF2 signal in the vicinity of an earthquake's epicenter few days before the incoming earthquake. We have analyzed foF2 signal observed by ionosonde located at Kokubunji form 2010-2015 using Cross Correlation analysis method in conjunction with the Empirical Mode Decomposition. The EMD method is used to remove the geophysical noise from the foF2 signals. In cross correlation analysis method the stations located inside the earthquake preparation area, as evaluated using Dobrovolsky equation capture the ionospheric disturbances generated by the seismic event. On the other hand the stations outside of this area are expected to remain unaffected. The results of our study are in agreements with the previous work, evidencing anomalous variation in foF2 signal prior to earthquake in a certain area around the epicenter. Our experimental results also show that precursors may appear as early as 22 days prior to the event. These precursors occurred on different days in the interval of 2-10 days prior to the earthquakes. The main cause of the possible earthquake precursors is E×B drift with the electric field generated over earthquake preparation area and penetrated the ionosphere Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, E×B drift, foF2 signal, Seismo-ionospheric coupling

  16. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

    PubMed

    Shang, Qiang; Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

    2016-01-01

    Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust. PMID:27551829

  17. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

    PubMed

    Shang, Qiang; Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

    2016-01-01

    Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

  18. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

    2016-01-01

    Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust. PMID:27551829

  19. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, S.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with carpets that are not new, (2) calculate the time-dependent VOC distributions in a test chamber or room, and (3) consider the temperature effect on VOC emissions. Based on small-scale chamber data, both models were used to examine the VOC emissions under different temperatures from polypropene styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) bitumen-backed carpet. The short-term predictions show that the VOC emissions under different temperatures can be modeled solely by changing the carpet diffusion coefficients. A formulation of the Arrhenius relation was used to correlate the dependence of carpet diffusion coefficient with temperature. The long-term predictions show that it would take several years to bake out the VOCs, and temperature would have a major impact on the bake-out time.

  20. Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

  1. Methodology for predicting long-term fuel-cell performance from short-term testing. Final technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Patel, D.; Farooque, M.; Maru, H.; Ware, C.

    1981-08-01

    The objective of this program was to develop a methodology for predicting long-term fuel cell performance from short-term testing, utilizing a perturbation testing technique. The technique applies small changes of predetermined levels in a predetermined sequence to the operating variables such that the decay mechanisms are not altered. This technique was tested on the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC), because this technology is approaching a mature stage. The initial series of perturbation tests appear to be reasonably successful and a methodology is now available for further refinements. The progress made during the study is detailed.

  2. Short-term fault prediction of mechanical rotating parts on the basis of fuzzy-grey optimising method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Laibin; Wang, Zhaohui; Zhao, Shangxin

    2007-02-01

    This paper presents a multidimensional fault characteristic parameter model for rotating parts for the purpose of mechanical fault diagnosis technology. Specifically, a fuzzy-grey optimising prediction method is presented to foretell short-term faults. The method is able to set up a prediction model with as few as four data and also can effectively handle the non-linearity of prediction data. The optimising factor τ* is determined to make the prediction data closest to the original data. Taking a rolling bearing of an oil-line pump as an example to forecast its fault characteristic parameters and comparing with GM(1,1), the experiment results show that ideal effects of precision examination have been obtained, and the method proves feasible and practical.

  3. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  4. Study on ann-based multi-step prediction model of short-term climatic variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Long; Ju, Weimin; Miao, Qilong

    2000-03-01

    In the context of 1905 1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of estab-lishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996 2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45°C for their abso-lute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986 1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156°C. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fit-ting and independent sample prediction.

  5. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  6. Short-term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frech, Michael; Holzäpfel, Frank; Gerz, Thomas; Konopka, Jens

    2002-03-01

    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt Airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways during appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20-minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS is discontinuity between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to air traffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt Airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance.

  7. Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review.

    PubMed

    Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

    2016-07-14

    Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1(th) and the 5(th) day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients

  8. Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review

    PubMed Central

    Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

    2016-01-01

    Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1th and the 5th day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients

  9. Superoxide Dismutase: A Predicting Factor for Boar Semen Characteristics for Short-Term Preservation

    PubMed Central

    Nemec Svete, Alenka

    2014-01-01

    Superoxide dismutase (SOD), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in seminal plasma were evaluated on the basis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis as predictors for distinguishing satisfactory from unsatisfactory boar semen samples after storage. SOD on day 0 correlated significantly with progressive motility (r = −0.686; P < 0.05) and viability (r = −0.513; P < 0.05) after storage; TBARS correlated only with motility (r = −0.480; P < 0.05). Semen samples that, after 3 days of storage, fulfilled all criteria for semen characteristics (viability > 85%, motility > 70%, progressive motility > 25%, and normal morphology > 50%) had significantly lower SOD levels on the day 0 than those with at least one criterion not fulfilled (P < 0.05) following storage. SOD levels of less than 1.05 U/mL predicted with 87.5% accuracy that fresh semen will suit the requirements for satisfactory semen characteristics after storage, while semen with SOD levels higher than 1.05 U/mL will not fulfill with 100% accuracy at least one semen characteristic after storage. These results support the proposal that SOD in fresh boar semen can be used as a predictor of semen quality after storage. PMID:24729963

  10. A hybrid model for short-term bacillary dysentery prediction in Yichang City, China.

    PubMed

    Yan, Weirong; Xu, Yong; Yang, Xiaobing; Zhou, Yikai

    2010-07-01

    Bacillary dysentery is still a common and serious public health problem in China. This paper is aimed at developing and evaluating an innovative hybrid model, which combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models, for bacillary dysentery forecasting. Data of monthly bacillary dysentery incidence in Yichang City from 2000-2007 was obtained from Yichang Disease Control and Prevention Center. The SARIMA and SARIMA-GRNN model were developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: data from the past 5 years was used to construct the models, and data from January to June of the 6th year was used to validate them. Simulation and forecasting performance was evaluated and compared between the two models. The hybrid SARIMA-GRNN model was found to outperform the SARIMA model with the lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error in simulation and prediction results. Developing and applying the SARIMA-GRNN hybrid model is an effective decision supportive method for producing reliable forecasts of bacillary dysentery for the study area.

  11. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    PubMed

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  12. Short-term expansion of breast circulating cancer cells predicts response to anti-cancer therapy.

    PubMed

    Khoo, Bee Luan; Lee, Soo Chin; Kumar, Prashant; Tan, Tuan Zea; Warkiani, Majid Ebrahimi; Ow, Samuel G W; Nandi, Sayantani; Lim, Chwee Teck; Thiery, Jean Paul

    2015-06-20

    Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) are considered as surrogate markers for prognosticating and evaluating patient treatment responses. Here, 226 blood samples from 92 patients with breast cancer, including patients with newly diagnosed or metastatic refractory cancer, and 16 blood samples from healthy subjects were cultured in laser-ablated microwells. Clusters containing an increasing number of cytokeratin-positive (CK+) cells appeared after 2 weeks, while most blood cells disappeared with time. Cultures were heterogeneous and exhibited two distinct sub-populations of cells: 'Small' (≤ 25 μm; high nuclear/cytoplasmic ratio; CD45-) cells, comprising CTCs, and 'Large' (> 25 μm; low nuclear/cytoplasmic ratio; CD68+ or CD56+) cells, corresponding to macrophage and natural killer-like cells. The Small cell fraction also showed copy number increases in six target genes (FGFR1, Myc, CCND1, HER2, TOP2A and ZNF217) associated with breast cancer. These expanded CTCs exhibited different proportions of epithelial-mesenchymal phenotypes and were transferable for further expansion as spheroids in serum-free suspension or 3D cultures. Cluster formation was affected by the presence and duration of systemic therapy, and its persistence may reflect therapeutic resistance. This novel and advanced method estimates CTC clonal heterogeneity and can predict, within a relatively short time frame, patient responses to therapy. PMID:26008969

  13. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    . Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

  14. Current affairs in earthquake prediction in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2015-12-01

    As of mid-2014, the main organizations of the earthquake (EQ hereafter) prediction program, including the Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ), the MEXT Headquarters for EQ Research Promotion, hold the official position that they neither can nor want to make any short-term prediction. It is an extraordinary stance of responsible authorities when the nation, after the devastating 2011 M9 Tohoku EQ, most urgently needs whatever information that may exist on forthcoming EQs. Japan's national project for EQ prediction started in 1965, but it has made no success. The main reason for no success is the failure to capture precursors. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this stance has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. This paper tries to explain how this situation came about and suggest that it may in fact be a legitimate one which should have come a long time ago. Actually, substantial positive changes are taking place now. Some promising signs are arising even from cooperation of researchers with private sectors and there is a move to establish an "EQ Prediction Society of Japan". From now on, maintaining the high scientific standards in EQ prediction will be of crucial importance.

  15. Predictive Modeling of Chemical Hazard by Integrating Numerical Descriptors of Chemical Structures and Short-term Toxicity Assay Data

    PubMed Central

    Rusyn, Ivan; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are widely used for in silico prediction of in vivo toxicity of drug candidates or environmental chemicals, adding value to candidate selection in drug development or in a search for less hazardous and more sustainable alternatives for chemicals in commerce. The development of traditional QSAR models is enabled by numerical descriptors representing the inherent chemical properties that can be easily defined for any number of molecules; however, traditional QSAR models often have limited predictive power due to the lack of data and complexity of in vivo endpoints. Although it has been indeed difficult to obtain experimentally derived toxicity data on a large number of chemicals in the past, the results of quantitative in vitro screening of thousands of environmental chemicals in hundreds of experimental systems are now available and continue to accumulate. In addition, publicly accessible toxicogenomics data collected on hundreds of chemicals provide another dimension of molecular information that is potentially useful for predictive toxicity modeling. These new characteristics of molecular bioactivity arising from short-term biological assays, i.e., in vitro screening and/or in vivo toxicogenomics data can now be exploited in combination with chemical structural information to generate hybrid QSAR–like quantitative models to predict human toxicity and carcinogenicity. Using several case studies, we illustrate the benefits of a hybrid modeling approach, namely improvements in the accuracy of models, enhanced interpretation of the most predictive features, and expanded applicability domain for wider chemical space coverage. PMID:22387746

  16. Use of "Crowd-Sourcing" and other collaborations to solve the short-term, earthquake forecasting problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleier, T.; Heraud, J. A.; Dunson, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    QuakeFinder (QF) and its international collaborators have installed and currently maintain 165 three-axis induction magnetometer instrument sites in California, Peru, Taiwan, Greece, Chile and Sumatra. The data from these instruments are being analyzed for pre-quake signatures. This analysis consists of both private research by QuakeFinder, and institutional collaborators (PUCP in Peru, NCU in Taiwan, PUCC in Chile, NOA in Greece, Syiah Kuala University in Indonesia, LASP at U of Colo., Stanford, and USGS). Recently, NASA Hq and QuakeFinder tried a new approach to help with the analysis of this huge (50+TB) data archive. A collaboration with Apirio/TopCoder, Harvard University, Amazon, QuakeFinder, and NASA Hq. resulted in an open algorithm development contest called "Quest for Quakes" in which contestants (freelance algorithm developers) attempted to identify quakes from a subset of the QuakeFinder data (3TB). The contest included a $25K prize pool, and contained 100 cases where earthquakes (and null sets) included data from up to 5 remote sites, near and far from quakes greater than M4. These data sets were made available through Amazon.com to hundreds of contestants over a two week contest period. In a more traditional approach, several new algorithms were tried by actively sharing the QF data with universities over a longer period. These algorithms included Principal Component Analysis-PCA and deep neural networks in an effort to automatically identify earthquake signals within typical, noise-filled environments. This presentation examines the pros and cons of employing these two approaches, from both logistical and scientific perspectives.

  17. Flirting with disaster: short-term mating orientation and hostile sexism predict different types of sexual harassment.

    PubMed

    Diehl, Charlotte; Rees, Jonas; Bohner, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    We combine evolutionary and sociocultural accounts of sexual harassment, proposing that sexuality-related and hostility-related motives lead to different types of harassment. Specifically, men's short-term mating orientation (STMO) was hypothesized to predict only unwanted sexual attention but not gender harassment, whereas men's hostile sexism (HS) was hypothesized to predict both unwanted sexual attention and gender harassment. As part of an alleged computer-chat task, 100 male students could send sexualized personal remarks (representing unwanted sexual attention), sexist jokes (representing gender harassment), or nonharassing material to an attractive female target. Independently, participants' STMO, HS, and sexual harassment myth acceptance (SHMA) were assessed. Correlational and path analyses revealed that STMO specifically predicted unwanted sexual attention, whereas HS predicted both unwanted sexual attention and gender harassment. Furthermore, SHMA fully mediated the effect of HS on gender harassment, but did not mediate effects of STMO or HS on unwanted sexual attention. Results are discussed in relation to motivational explanations for sexual harassment and antiharassment interventions.

  18. Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

  19. Short-Term Precipitation Occurrence Prediction for Strong Convective Weather Using FY2-G Satellite Data: a Case Study of Shenzhen, South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kai; Liu, Jun; Guo, Shanxin; Chen, Jinsong; Liu, Ping; Qian, Jing; Chen, Huijuan; Sun, Bo

    2016-06-01

    Short-term precipitation commonly occurs in south part of China, which brings intensive precipitation in local region for very short time. Massive water would cause the intensive flood inside of city when precipitation amount beyond the capacity of city drainage system. Thousands people's life could be influenced by those short-term disasters and the higher city managements are required to facing these challenges. How to predict the occurrence of heavy precipitation accurately is one of the worthwhile scientific questions in meteorology. According to recent studies, the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction based on numerical simulation model still remains low reliability, in some area where lack of local observations, the accuracy may be as low as 10%. The methodology for short term precipitation occurrence prediction still remains a challenge. In this paper, a machine learning method based on SVM was presented to predict short-term precipitation occurrence by using FY2-G satellite imagery and ground in situ observation data. The results were validated by traditional TS score which commonly used in evaluation of weather prediction. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm can present overall accuracy up to 90% for one-hour to six-hour forecast. The result implies the prediction accuracy could be improved by using machine learning method combining with satellite image. This prediction model can be further used to evaluated to predicted other characteristics of weather in Shenzhen in future.

  20. Model predictions of features in microsaccade-related neural responses in a feedforward network with short-term synaptic depression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jian-Fang; Yuan, Wu-Jie; Zhou, Zhao; Zhou, Changsong

    2016-02-01

    Recently, the significant microsaccade-induced neural responses have been extensively observed in experiments. To explore the underlying mechanisms of the observed neural responses, a feedforward network model with short-term synaptic depression has been proposed [Yuan, W.-J., Dimigen, O., Sommer, W. and Zhou, C. Front. Comput. Neurosci. 7, 47 (2013)]. The depression model not only gave an explanation for microsaccades in counteracting visual fading, but also successfully reproduced several microsaccade-related features in experimental findings. These results strongly suggest that, the depression model is very useful to investigate microsaccade-related neural responses. In this paper, by using the model, we extensively study and predict the dependance of microsaccade-related neural responses on several key parameters, which could be tuned in experiments. Particularly, we provide a significant prediction that microsaccade-related neural response also complies with the property “sharper is better” observed in many contexts in neuroscience. Importantly, the property exhibits a power-law relationship between the width of input signal and the responsive effectiveness, which is robust against many parameters in the model. By using mean field theory, we analytically investigate the robust power-law property. Our predictions would give theoretical guidance for further experimental investigations of the functional role of microsaccades in visual information processing.

  1. Exaggerated Claims About Earthquake Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafka, Alan L.; Ebel, John E.

    2007-01-01

    The perennial promise of successful earthquake prediction captures the imagination of a public hungry for certainty in an uncertain world. Yet, given the lack of any reliable method of predicting earthquakes [e.g., Geller, 1997; Kagan and Jackson, 1996; Evans, 1997], seismologists regularly have to explain news stories of a supposedly successful earthquake prediction when it is far from clear just how successful that prediction actually was. When journalists and public relations offices report the latest `great discovery' regarding the prediction of earthquakes, seismologists are left with the much less glamorous task of explaining to the public the gap between the claimed success and the sober reality that there is no scientifically proven method of predicting earthquakes.

  2. The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2005-01-01

    Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products

  3. Predicting the Effects of Short-Term Photovoltaic Variability on Power System Frequency for Systems with Integrated Energy Storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traube, Joshua White

    The percentage of electricity supplied by photovoltaic (PV) generators is steadily rising in power systems worldwide. This rise in PV penetration may lead to larger fluctuations in power system frequency due to variability in PV generator output at time scales that fall between the inertial damping and automatic generation control (AGC) responses of power systems. To reduce PV generator variability, active power controls can be implemented in the power electronic inverters that interface PV generators to the power system. Although various types of active power controls have been developed, no standard methodology exists for evaluating the effectiveness of these controls at improving power system frequency regulation. This dissertation presents a method for predicting the effects of short-term PV variability on power system frequency for a PV generator with active power control provided by integrated energy storage. A custom model of a PV generator with integrated energy storage is implemented in a power system dynamic simulator and validated through experiments with a grid emulator. The model is used to predict the effects of short-term PV variability on the frequency of the IEEE 9-bus test power system modified to include a PV generator with integrated energy storage. In addition, this dissertation utilizes linear analysis of power system frequency control to predict worst-case frequency deviations as a function of the amount of energy storage integrated into PV generators. Through simulation and emulation on a scaled experimental prototype, the maximum frequency deviation caused by the PV generator with a small amount of integrated energy storage is found to be approximately 33% lower than the maximum frequency deviation caused by the PV generator alone. Through linear analysis it is shown that by adding only 36.7 kWh of integrated energy storage to a 1.2 MW PV system, the worst-case frequency deviation on the IEEE 9-bus test system can be reduced 65% from 0

  4. Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

    2016-06-01

    Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.

  5. Performance assessment of deterministic and probabilistic weather predictions for the short-term optimization of a tropical hydropower reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado, Rodolfo; Assis dos Reis, Alberto; Naumann, Steffi; Collischonn, Walter

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower is the most important electricity source in Brazil. During recent years, it accounted for 60% to 70% of the total electric power supply. Marginal costs of hydropower are lower than for thermal power plants, therefore, there is a strong economic motivation to maximize its share. On the other hand, hydropower depends on the availability of water, which has a natural variability. Its extremes lead to the risks of power production deficits during droughts and safety issues in the reservoir and downstream river reaches during flood events. One building block of the proper management of hydropower assets is the short-term forecast of reservoir inflows as input for an online, event-based optimization of its release strategy. While deterministic forecasts and optimization schemes are the established techniques for the short-term reservoir management, the use of probabilistic ensemble forecasts and stochastic optimization techniques receives growing attention and a number of researches have shown its benefit. The present work shows one of the first hindcasting and closed-loop control experiments for a multi-purpose hydropower reservoir in a tropical region in Brazil. The case study is the hydropower project (HPP) Três Marias, located in southeast Brazil. The HPP reservoir is operated with two main objectives: (i) hydroelectricity generation and (ii) flood control at Pirapora City located 120 km downstream of the dam. In the experiments, precipitation forecasts based on observed data, deterministic and probabilistic forecasts with 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF are used as forcing of the MGB-IPH hydrological model to generate streamflow forecasts over a period of 2 years. The online optimization depends on a deterministic and multi-stage stochastic version of a model predictive control scheme. Results for the perfect forecasts show the potential benefit of the online optimization and indicate a desired forecast lead time of 30 days. In comparison, the use of

  6. The effect of flow and orography on the spatial distribution of the very short-term predictability of rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foresti, L.; Seed, A.

    2014-07-01

    The spatial distribution and scale-dependence of the very-short term predictability of precipitation by Lagrangian persistence is studied under different flow regimes in connection with the presence of orographic features. Data from the weather radar composite of eastern Victoria, Australia, a 500 km × 500 km domain at 10 min temporal and 2 km × 2 km spatial resolutions, covering the period from February 2011 to October 2012, were used for the analyses. The scale-dependence of the predictability of precipitation is considered by decomposing the radar rainfall field into an 8-levels multiplicative cascade using a Fast Fourier Transform. The rate of temporal development of precipitation in Lagrangian coordinates is estimated at each level of the cascade under different flow regimes, which are stratified by applying a k-means clustering algorithm on the diagnosed velocity fields. The predictability of precipitation is measured by its lifetime, which is derived by integrating the Lagrangian auto-correlation function. The lifetimes were found to depend on the scale of the feature as a power law, which is known as dynamic scaling, and to vary as a function of flow regime. The lifetimes also exhibit significant spatial variability and are approximately a factor two longer on the upwind compared with the downwind slopes of terrain features. The scaling exponent of the spatial power spectrum also shows interesting geographical differences. These findings provide opportunities to perform spatially inhomogeneous stochastic simulations of space-time precipitation to account for the presence of orography, which may be integrated into design storm simulations and stochastic precipitation nowcasting systems.

  7. JPSS Proving Ground Activities with NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, L. A.; Smith, M. R.; Fuell, K.; Stano, G. T.; LeRoy, A.; Berndt, E.

    2015-12-01

    Instruments aboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series of satellites will provide imagery and other data sets relevant to operational weather forecasts. To prepare current and future weather forecasters in application of these data sets, Proving Ground activities have been established that demonstrate future JPSS capabilities through use of similar sensors aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and the S-NPP mission. As part of these efforts, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama partners with near real-time providers of S-NPP products (e.g., NASA, UW/CIMSS, UAF/GINA, etc.) to demonstrate future capabilities of JPSS. This includes training materials and product distribution of multi-spectral false color composites of the visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands of MODIS and VIIRS. These are designed to highlight phenomena of interest to help forecasters digest the multispectral data provided by the VIIRS sensor. In addition, forecasters have been trained on the use of the VIIRS day-night band, which provides imagery of moonlit clouds, surface, and lights emitted by human activities. Hyperspectral information from the S-NPP/CrIS instrument provides thermodynamic profiles that aid in the detection of extremely cold air aloft, helping to map specific aviation hazards at high latitudes. Hyperspectral data also support the estimation of ozone concentration, which can highlight the presence of much drier stratospheric air, and map its interaction with mid-latitude or tropical cyclones to improve predictions of their strengthening or decay. Proving Ground activities are reviewed, including training materials and methods that have been provided to forecasters, and forecaster feedback on these products that has been acquired through formal, detailed assessment of their applicability to a given forecast threat or task. Future opportunities for collaborations around the delivery of training are proposed

  8. 14C Cycling in Lignocellulose-Amended Soils: Predicting Long-Term C Fate from Short-Term Indicators

    SciTech Connect

    Bailey, Vanessa L.; Smith, Jeffery L.; Bolton, Harvey

    2006-02-01

    The degradation of recalcitrant, abundant, naturally occurring compounds such as lignocellulose is a significant component of the global C cycle. Identifying land uses that maximize the storage of this C rather than its mineralization to CO2 will aid in recommendations to offset C emissions. Furthermore, identifying simple relationships that predict which soils are most likely to store more C will aid in C management. We compared lignocellulose degradation over 8 months in contrasting soils from each of five sites across the United States. The soils were collected from a tallgrass prairie restoration (farmland, and plots restored in 1993 and 1979), the semiarid shrub-steppe (cool, moist upper slope and warm, dry lower slope soils), long-term farmland (no-till and conventional-till), and from two forest soils (loblolly pine and Douglas fir; fertilized and non-fertilized). Soils that rapidly metabolized freshly added C exploited endogenous and newly transformed C to a lesser degree over the course of the incubation (lower slope shrub-steppe, non-fertilized Douglas fir, and tallgrass prairie farmed and 1993 restorations). We also pooled the data to find a strong relationship between sand content and lignocellulose-C remaining in the soil after 8 months (R = 0.68) and also between short-term storage of lignocellulose-C (at 7 d) and lignocellulose-C remaining after 8 months (R= 0.94). To predict C storage, models of C and soil properties must be modified to reflect microbial communities. Communities in richer soils may be more competent to use native C following fresh C additions when compared with communities in poorer soils.

  9. Sociological aspects of earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1979-01-01

    Henry Spall talked recently with Denis Mileti who is in the Department of Sociology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo. Dr. Mileti is a sociologst involved with research programs that study the socioeconomic impact of earthquake prediction

  10. A short-term predictive system for surface currents from a rapidly deployed coastal HF radar network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrick, Donald; Fernandez, Vicente; Ferrer, Maria I.; Whelan, Chad; Breivik, Øyvind

    2012-05-01

    In order to address the need for surface trajectory forecasts following deployment of coastal HF radar systems during emergency-response situations (e.g., search and rescue, oil spill), a short-term predictive system (STPS) based on only a few hours data background is presented. First, open-modal analysis (OMA) coefficients are fitted to 1-D surface currents from all available radar stations at each time interval. OMA has the effect of applying a spatial low-pass filter to the data, fills gaps, and can extend coverage to areas where radial vectors are available from a single radar only. Then, a set of temporal modes is fitted to the time series of OMA coefficients, typically over a short 12-h trailing period. These modes include tidal and inertial harmonics, as well as constant and linear trends. This temporal model is the STPS basis for producing up to a 12-h current vector forecast from which a trajectory forecast can be derived. We show results of this method applied to data gathered during the September 2010 rapid-response demonstration in northern Norway. Forecasted coefficients, currents, and trajectories are compared with the same measured quantities, and statistics of skill are assessed employing 16 24-h data sets. Forecasted and measured kinetic variances of the OMA coefficients typically agreed to within 10-15%. In one case where errors were larger, strong wind changes are suspected and examined as the cause. Sudden wind variability is not included properly within the STPS attack we presently employ and will be a subject for future improvement.

  11. Development of Short-term Molecular Thresholds to Predict Long-term Mouse Liver Tumor Outcomes: Phthalate Case Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    Short-term molecular profiles are a central component of strategies to model health effects of environmental chemicals. In this study, a 7 day mouse assay was used to evaluate transcriptomic and proliferative responses in the liver for a hepatocarcinogenic phthalate, di (2-ethylh...

  12. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  13. Multi-level prediction of short-term outcome of depression: non-verbal interpersonal processes, cognitions and personality traits.

    PubMed

    Geerts, E; Bouhuys, N

    1998-06-01

    It was hypothesized that personality factors determine the short-term outcome of depression, and that they may do this via non-verbal interpersonal interactions and via cognitive interpretations of non-verbal behaviour. Twenty-six hospitalized depressed patients entered the study. Personality factors in the study were Neuroticism (N) and Extraversion (E). Non-verbal interpersonal interactions were studied by measuring patients' 'support seeking behaviour' and interviewers' 'support giving behaviour' from videotaped clinical interviews. The attunement between patients' and interviewers' behaviour (reflecting interpersonal satisfaction) was calculated over the time course of the interviews. Cognitions were assessed by measuring the perception of emotions from schematic faces. A stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the higher the levels of E were, the less negative emotions were perceived from ambiguous faces (A-neg), and the more the patients and the interviewers got non-verbally attuned during the baseline interviews, the more favourable the short-term outcome of depression (as assessed over 6 weeks) turned out to be (adj.R2 = 0.48, P = 0.001). High levels of A-neg explained the relationship between high levels of N and an unfavourable short-term outcome of the depression (Pearson's r between N and short-term outcome of depression, P = 0.041, partial correlation after correction for A-neg, P = 0.157). The results show that personality, non-verbal interpersonal behavioural processes and cognitive factors are partially independent and partially linked in their relationship with the short-term outcome of depression. Research on non-verbal behavioural processes extends the empirical basis for the integration of personality, cognitions and interpersonal factors in depression theory.

  14. Use of short-term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

    SciTech Connect

    Glass, L.R.; Jones, T.D.; Easterly, C.E.; Walsh, P.J.

    1990-10-01

    It has been hypothesized that results from short-term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Historically, the validity of the short-term tests has been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long-term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used to assist in isolating those compounds which may represent a more significant toxicologic hazard than others. In contrast, the goal of this research is to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short-term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation. Chemicals were selected mostly from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC); a few other chemicals commonly recognized as hazardous were included. Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on 52 chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short-term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short-term tests systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may contribute to increased carcinogenesis in humans as a result of occupational or environmental exposures. 177 refs., 8 tabs.

  15. Implementation of the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) in Belgium and verification of case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent

    2014-05-01

    The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is a probabilistic precipitation nowcasting scheme developed at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in collaboration with the UK Met Office. In order to account for the multiscaling nature of rainfall structures, the radar field is decomposed into an 8 levels multiplicative cascade using a Fast Fourier Transform. The cascade is advected using the velocity field estimated with optical flow and evolves stochastically according to a hierarchy of auto-regressive processes. This allows reproducing the empirical observation that the rate of temporal evolution of the small scales is faster than the large scales. The uncertainty in radar rainfall measurement and the unknown future development of the velocity field are also considered by stochastic modelling in order to reflect their typical spatial and temporal variability. Recently, a 4 years national research program has been initiated by the University of Leuven, the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium and 3 other partners: PLURISK ("forecasting and management of extreme rainfall induced risks in the urban environment"). The project deals with the nowcasting of rainfall and subsequent urban inundations, as well as socio-economic risk quantification, communication, warning and prevention. At the urban scale it is widely recognized that the uncertainty of hydrological and hydraulic models is largely driven by the input rainfall estimation and forecast uncertainty. In support to the PLURISK project the RMI aims at integrating STEPS in the current operational deterministic precipitation nowcasting system INCA-BE (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis). This contribution will illustrate examples of STEPS ensemble and probabilistic nowcasts for a few selected case studies of stratiform and convective rain in Belgium. The paper focuses on the development of STEPS products for potential hydrological users and a preliminary verification of the nowcasts

  16. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  17. Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Wakita, H

    1996-01-01

    The current status of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan is described. The development of the observations is discussed in relation to the progress of the earthquake prediction program in Japan. Three major findings obtained from our recent studies are outlined. (i) Long-term radon observation data over 18 years at the SKE (Suikoen) well indicate that the anomalous radon change before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake can with high probability be attributed to precursory changes. (ii) It is proposed that certain sensitive wells exist which have the potential to detect precursory changes. (iii) The appearance and nonappearance of coseismic radon drops at the KSM (Kashima) well reflect changes in the regional stress state of an observation area. In addition, some preliminary results of chemical changes of groundwater prior to the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) earthquake are presented. PMID:11607665

  18. Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

    2011-12-01

    M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

  19. An initial investigation on developing a new method to predict short-term breast cancer risk based on deep learning technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yuchen; Wang, Yunzhi; Yan, Shiju; Tan, Maxine; Cheng, Samuel; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2016-03-01

    In order to establish a new personalized breast cancer screening paradigm, it is critically important to accurately predict the short-term risk of a woman having image-detectable cancer after a negative mammographic screening. In this study, we developed and tested a novel short-term risk assessment model based on deep learning method. During the experiment, a number of 270 "prior" negative screening cases was assembled. In the next sequential ("current") screening mammography, 135 cases were positive and 135 cases remained negative. These cases were randomly divided into a training set with 200 cases and a testing set with 70 cases. A deep learning based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) scheme was then developed for the risk assessment, which consists of two modules: adaptive feature identification module and risk prediction module. The adaptive feature identification module is composed of three pairs of convolution-max-pooling layers, which contains 20, 10, and 5 feature maps respectively. The risk prediction module is implemented by a multiple layer perception (MLP) classifier, which produces a risk score to predict the likelihood of the woman developing short-term mammography-detectable cancer. The result shows that the new CAD-based risk model yielded a positive predictive value of 69.2% and a negative predictive value of 74.2%, with a total prediction accuracy of 71.4%. This study demonstrated that applying a new deep learning technology may have significant potential to develop a new short-term risk predicting scheme with improved performance in detecting early abnormal symptom from the negative mammograms.

  20. Quantitative predictivity of carcinogenicity for four short-term parameters, evaluated in rat liver: alkaline DNA fragmentation, autoradiographic repair, DNA adducts, preneoplastic nodules.

    PubMed

    Parodi, S; Taningher, M; Santi, L

    1984-01-01

    The possibility of the study of a quantitative correlation between short-term tests and carcinogenicity, instead of a qualitative one, is discussed. Four tests related to the target organ, rat liver, were considered: alkaline DNA fragmentation, DNA repair, DNA adducts and the formation of preneoplastic nodules. All the four tests showed a similar level of correlation with carcinogenic potency (r approximately equal to 0.4). With this level of correlation, the dispersion of the data appeared too large to offer a meaningful degree of quantitative predictivity of carcinogenicity, in reference to a single test. It appeared however, that the use of a battery of two or three independent short-term tests, with the above level of simple correlation, could generate a multiple correlation high enough to be potentially useful for some degree of quantitative predictivity of carcinogenic potency.

  1. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  2. The politics of earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Olson, R.S.

    1989-01-01

    This book gives an account of the politics, scientific and public, generated from the Brady-Spence prediction of a massive earthquake to take place within several years in central Peru. Though the disaster did not happen, this examination of the events serves to highlight American scientific processes and the results of scientific interaction with the media and political bureaucracy.

  3. INTEGRATION OF SHORT-TERM CO-SEISMIC DEFORMATION (InSAR) IN THE GEOMORPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ACTIVELY UPLIFTING FOOTWALL, L’AQUILA EARTHQUAKE (06 APRIL, 2009), ITALY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berti, C.; Pazzaglia, F. J.; Ramage, J. M.; Miccadei, E.; Piacentini, T.

    2009-12-01

    Central Italy is a well know region of frequent seismic activity focused along the topographic axis of the Apennines, with several, damaging > M. 5 events in the past decade. Conversely, the integrated effect of these earthquakes in shaping the long term development of the landscape is a poorly understood, but potentially powerful process in describing the region’s paleoseismicity and steadiness of hazardous earthquakes. The recent M. 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake of 06 April, 2009 ruptured a fault in a region of well-known geologic, geomorphic, and geodetic constraining data including hanging wall continental basin Quaternary deposits, footwall stream networks with distinct knickpoints, a dense GPS network, and InSAR interferometry. Collectively, the geodetic data describe the short-term, co- and immediately post-seismic behavior of the earthquake, whereas the geologic and geomorphic data record how discrete rupture events are encoded in the landscape and reflected in processes actively shaping the topography. Envisat and ALOS derived interferograms generated using ROI PAC show close spatial overlap of the InSAR-determined rupture and the Paganica fault, separating a deeply incised, uplifted carbonate footwall block and an actively subsiding Quaternary continental basin. Deposition in the continental basin has been unsteady and is commonly attributed to climate-modulated sediment flux from the uplifted footwall. We note however, that the longitudinal profiles of streams in the footwall are marked by distinct knickpoints that do not correspond to known or obvious lithologic or structural controls. Rather, the knickpoints are located a linear distance from the Paganica fault and at a topographic elevation consistent with detachment-limited stream-power erosional retreat processes instigated by instantaneous base level fall at the mountain front. Furthermore, the magnitude of river incision and elevation of the knickpoints scales with the co-seismic deformation pattern

  4. Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

    2014-11-01

    Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality.

  5. The Art versus Science of Predicting Prognosis: Can a Prognostic Index Predict Short-Term Mortality Better than Experienced Nurses Do?

    PubMed Central

    Farrington, Sue; Craig, Teresa; Slattery, Julie; Harrold, Joan; Oldanie, Betty; Roy, Jason; Biehl, Richard; Teno, Joan

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objective To determine whether a prognostic index could predict one-week mortality more accurately than hospice nurses can. Method An electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study of 21,074 hospice patients was conducted in three hospice programs in the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest United States. Model development used logistic regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals and multiple imputation to account for missing data. The main outcome measure was mortality within 7 days of hospice enrollment. Results A total of 21,074 patients were admitted to hospice between October 1, 2008 and May 31, 2011, and 5562 (26.4%) died within 7 days. An optimal predictive model included the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) score, admission from a hospital, and gender. The model had a c-statistic of 0.86 in the training sample and 0.84 in the validation sample, which was greater than that of nurses' predictions (0.72). The index's performance was best for patients with pulmonary disease (0.89) and worst for patients with cancer and dementia (both 0.80). The index's predictions of mortality rates in each index category were within 5.0% of actual rates, whereas nurses underestimated mortality by up to 18.9%. Using the optimal index threshold (<3), the index's predictions had a better c-statistic (0.78 versus 0.72) and higher sensitivity (74.4% versus 47.8%) than did nurses' predictions but a lower specificity (80.6% versus 95.1%). Conclusions Although nurses can often identify patients who will die within 7 days, a simple model based on available clinical information offers improved accuracy and could help to identify those patients who are at high risk for short-term mortality. PMID:22583382

  6. Applications of NASA and NOAA Satellite Observations by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Response to Natural Disasters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Burks, Jason E.; McGrath, Kevin M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2012-01-01

    NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center supports the transition of unique NASA and NOAA research activities to the operational weather forecasting community. SPoRT emphasizes real-time analysis and prediction out to 48 hours. SPoRT partners with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers to improve current products, demonstrate future satellite capabilities and explore new data assimilation techniques. Recently, the SPoRT Center has been involved in several activities related to disaster response, in collaboration with NOAA s National Weather Service, NASA s Applied Sciences Disasters Program, and other partners.

  7. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  8. Predicting short-term institutional aggression in forensic patients: a multi-trait method for understanding subtypes of aggression.

    PubMed

    Vitacco, Michael J; Van Rybroek, Gregory J; Rogstad, Jill E; Yahr, Laura E; Tomony, James D; Saewert, Emily

    2009-08-01

    Accurately predicting inpatient aggression is an important endeavor. The current study investigated inpatient aggression over a six-month time period in a sample of 152 male forensic patients. We assessed constructs of psychopathy, anger, and active symptoms of mental illness and tested their ability to predict reactive and instrumental aggression. Across all levels of analyses, anger and active symptoms of mental illness predicted reactive aggression. Traits of psychopathy, which demonstrated no relationship to reactive aggression, were a robust predictor of instrumental aggression. This study (a) reestablishes psychopathy as a clinically useful construct in predicting inpatient instrumental aggression, (b) provides some validation for the reactive/instrumental aggression paradigm in forensic inpatients, and (c) makes recommendations for integrating risk assessment results into treatment interventions.

  9. An Interval-Valued Neural Network Approach for Uncertainty Quantification in Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ak, Ronay; Vitelli, Valeria; Zio, Enrico

    2015-11-01

    We consider the task of performing prediction with neural networks (NNs) on the basis of uncertain input data expressed in the form of intervals. We aim at quantifying the uncertainty in the prediction arising from both the input data and the prediction model. A multilayer perceptron NN is trained to map interval-valued input data onto interval outputs, representing the prediction intervals (PIs) of the real target values. The NN training is performed by nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II, so that the PIs are optimized both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and dimension (width). Demonstration of the proposed method is given in two case studies: 1) a synthetic case study, in which the data have been generated with a 5-min time frequency from an autoregressive moving average model with either Gaussian or Chi-squared innovation distribution and 2) a real case study, in which experimental data consist of wind speed measurements with a time step of 1 h. Comparisons are given with a crisp (single-valued) approach. The results show that the crisp approach is less reliable than the interval-valued input approach in terms of capturing the variability in input.

  10. Predictability of Solar Radiation for Photovoltaics systems over Europe: from short-term to seasonal time-scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, Matteo; Petitta, Marcello; Ruti, Paolo

    2014-05-01

    Photovoltaic diffusion is steadily growing on Europe, passing from a capacity of almost 14 GWp in 2011 to 21.5 GWp in 2012 [1]. Having accurate forecast is needed for planning and operational purposes, with the possibility to model and predict solar variability at different time-scales. This study examines the predictability of daily surface solar radiation comparing ECMWF operational forecasts with CM-SAF satellite measurements on the Meteosat (MSG) full disk domain. Operational forecasts used are the IFS system up to 10 days and the System4 seasonal forecast up to three months. Forecast are analysed considering average and variance of errors, showing error maps and average on specific domains with respect to prediction lead times. In all the cases, forecasts are compared with predictions obtained using persistence and state-of-art time-series models. We can observe a wide range of errors, with the performance of forecasts dramatically affected by orography and season. Lower errors are on southern Italy and Spain, with errors on some areas consistently under 10% up to ten days during summer (JJA). Finally, we conclude the study with some insight on how to "translate" the error on solar radiation to error on solar power production using available production data from solar power plants. [1] EurObserver, "Baromètre Photovoltaïque, Le journal des énergies renouvables, April 2012."

  11. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  12. Short-term prognostic factors in lumbar disc surgery: the low back prognostic score is of predictive value.

    PubMed

    Woertgen, C; Gliese, M; Rothoerl, R D; Holzschuh, M; Schlaier, J; Ullrich, O W; Brawanski, A

    1998-01-01

    In order to determine prognostic factors of lumbar disc surgery, we examined 107 patients who were conventionally operated on in a prospective, consecutive study. We analysed general data, the case history, the neurological examination at admission and all data from imaging examinations and therapy. In addition, all patients received a questionnaire based on the Low Back Outcome Score [9, 10]. The patients were re-examined after 2-8 months (103 days mean). According to their ratings on a pain grading scale, the patients were divided into a group with favorable and another with unfavorable results. These groups were analysed in relation to the patients' initial condition. At follow up, 88% of the patients had either completely recovered or their complaints had been relieved. According to the Low Back Outcome Score (LBOS), 64.5% went well. Used to evaluate the initial condition of the patients on admission the LBOS was able to predict favorable outcome in 68% and unfavorable outcome in 50%. To improve the prognostic value, we combined significant questions of the LBOS with the pain grading scale and significant prognostic factors to form a new prognostic score (Low Back Prognostic Score). With this new score we were able to predict a favorable outcome in 84% of our patients, and an unfavorable outcome in 71%. The Low Back Prognostic score seems to provide a sensitive method for predicting a favorable or unfavorable outcome for patients scheduled to undergo lumbar disc surgery. PMID:9577926

  13. Prediction of earthquake response spectra

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Joyner, W.B.; Boore, David M.

    1982-01-01

    We have developed empirical equations for predicting earthquake response spectra in terms of magnitude, distance, and site conditions, using a two-stage regression method similar to the one we used previously for peak horizontal acceleration and velocity. We analyzed horizontal pseudo-velocity response at 5 percent damping for 64 records of 12 shallow earthquakes in Western North America, including the recent Coyote Lake and Imperial Valley, California, earthquakes. We developed predictive equations for 12 different periods between 0.1 and 4.0 s, both for the larger of two horizontal components and for the random horizontal component. The resulting spectra show amplification at soil sites compared to rock sites for periods greater than or equal to 0.3 s, with maximum amplification exceeding a factor of 2 at 2.0 s. For periods less than 0.3 s there is slight deamplification at the soil sites. These results are generally consistent with those of several earlier studies. A particularly significant aspect of the predicted spectra is the change of shape with magnitude (confirming earlier results by McGuire and by Irifunac and Anderson). This result indicates that the conventional practice of scaling a constant spectral shape by peak acceleration will not give accurate answers. The Newmark and Hall method of spectral scaling, using both peak acceleration and peak velocity, largely avoids this error. Comparison of our spectra with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Regulatory Guide 1.60 spectrum anchored at the same value at 0.1 s shows that the Regulatory Guide 1.60 spectrum is exceeded at soil sites for a magnitude of 7.5 at all distances for periods greater than about 0.5 s. Comparison of our spectra for soil sites with the corresponding ATC-3 curve of lateral design force coefficient for the highest seismic zone indicates that the ATC-3 curve is exceeded within about 7 km of a magnitude 6.5 earthquake and within about 15 km of a magnitude 7.5 event. The amount by

  14. Predicting Short-Term Positive Affect in Individuals with Social Anxiety Disorder: The Role of Selected Personality Traits and Emotion Regulation Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Weisman, Jaclyn S.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Lim, Michelle H.; Fernandez, Katya C.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, research has provided support for a moderate, inverse relationship between social anxiety and dispositional positive affect. However, the dynamics of this relationship remain poorly understood. The present study evaluates whether certain personality traits and emotion regulation variables predict short-term positive affect for individuals with social anxiety disorder and healthy controls. Positive affect as measured by two self-report instruments was assessed before and after two tasks in which the participant conversed with either a friend or a romantic partner. Tests of models examining the hypothesized prospective predictors revealed that the paths did not differ significantly across diagnostic group and both groups showed the hypothesized patterns of endorsement for the emotion regulation variables. Further, a variable reflecting difficulty redirecting oneself when distressed prospectively predicted one measure of positive affect. Additional research is needed to explore further the role of emotion regulation strategies on positive emotions for individuals higher in social anxiety. PMID:26119140

  15. The ethics of earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sol, Ayhan; Turan, Halil

    2004-10-01

    Scientists' responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.

  16. Assessment of Bacterial Communities and Predictive Functional Profiling in Soils Subjected to Short-Term Fumigation-Incubation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Lin; Luo, Yu; Xu, Jianming; Yu, Zhuyun; Zhang, Kaile; Brookes, Philip C

    2016-07-01

    Previous investigations observed that when soil was fumigated with ethanol-free CHCl3 for 24 h and then incubated under appropriate conditions, after the initial flush of CO2 was over, soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization continued at the same rate as in the non-fumigated soil. This indicates that, following fumigation, the much diminished microbial population still retained the same ability to mineralize SOC as the much larger non-fumigated population. We hypothesize that although fumigation drastically alters the soil bacterial community abundance, composition, and diversity, it has little influence on the bacterial C-metabolic functions. Here, we conducted a 30-day incubation experiment involving a grassland soil and an arable soil with and without CHCl3 fumigation. At days 0, 7, and 30 of the incubation, the bacterial abundances were determined by quantitative PCR, and the bacterial community composition and diversity were assessed via the 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. PICRUSt was used to predict the metagenome functional content from the sequence data. Fumigation considerably changed the composition and decreased the abundance and diversity of bacterial community at the end of incubation. At day 30, Firmicutes (mainly Bacilli) accounted for 70.9 and 94.6 % of the total sequences in the fumigated grassland and arable soil communities, respectively. The two fumigated soil communities exhibited large compositional and structural differences during incubation. The families Paenibacillaceae, Bacillaceae, and Symbiobacteriaceae dominated the bacterial community in the grassland soil, and Alicyclobacillaceae in the arable soil. Fumigation had little influence on the predicted abundances of KEGG orthologs (KOs) assigned to the metabolism of the main acid esters, saccharides, amino acids, and lipids in the grassland soil community. The saccharide-metabolizing KO abundances were decreased, but the acid ester- and fatty acid-metabolizing KO abundances were

  17. Value of intravoxel incoherent motion and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI for predicting the early and short-term responses to chemoradiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Jing; Yu, Xiaoping; Hu, Yin; Li, Feiping; Xiang, Wang; Wang, Lanlan; Wang, Hui; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Zhongping; Zeng, Wenbin

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of the study was to investigate the value of intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (IVIM-DWI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in predicting the early and short-term responses to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Forty-three NPC patients underwent IVIM-DWI and DCE-MRI at baseline (pretreatment) and after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy (posttreatment). Based on whether locoregional lesions were identified, patients were divided into the residual and nonresidual groups at the end of CRT and into the good-responder and poor-responder groups 6 months after the end of CRT. The pretreatment and posttreatment IVIM-DWI parameters (ADC, D, D∗, and f) and DCE-MRI parameters (Ktrans, Kep, and Ve) values and their percentage changes (Δ%) were compared between the residual and nonresidual groups and between the good-responder and poor-responder groups. None of perfusion-related parametric values derived from either DCE-MRI or IVIM-DWI showed significant differences either between the residual and nonresidual groups or between the good-responder and poor-responder groups. The nonresidual group exhibited lower pre-ADC, lower pre-D, and higher Δ%D values than did the residual group (all P <0.05). The good-responder group had lower pre-D and pre-ADC values than did the poor-responder group (both P <0.05). Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, pre-D had the highest area under the curve in predicting both the early and short-term responses to CRT for NPC patients (0.817 and 0.854, respectively). IVIM-DWI is more valuable than DCE-MRI in predicting the early and short-term response to CRT for NPC, and furthermore diffusion-related IVIM-DWI parameters (pre-ADC, pre-D, and Δ%D) are more powerful than perfusion-related parameters derived from both IVIM-DWI and DCE-MRI. PMID:27583847

  18. Value of intravoxel incoherent motion and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI for predicting the early and short-term responses to chemoradiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hou, Jing; Yu, Xiaoping; Hu, Yin; Li, Feiping; Xiang, Wang; Wang, Lanlan; Wang, Hui; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Zhongping; Zeng, Wenbin

    2016-08-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the value of intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (IVIM-DWI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in predicting the early and short-term responses to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).Forty-three NPC patients underwent IVIM-DWI and DCE-MRI at baseline (pretreatment) and after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy (posttreatment). Based on whether locoregional lesions were identified, patients were divided into the residual and nonresidual groups at the end of CRT and into the good-responder and poor-responder groups 6 months after the end of CRT. The pretreatment and posttreatment IVIM-DWI parameters (ADC, D, D*, and f) and DCE-MRI parameters (K, Kep, and Ve) values and their percentage changes (Δ%) were compared between the residual and nonresidual groups and between the good-responder and poor-responder groups.None of perfusion-related parametric values derived from either DCE-MRI or IVIM-DWI showed significant differences either between the residual and nonresidual groups or between the good-responder and poor-responder groups. The nonresidual group exhibited lower pre-ADC, lower pre-D, and higher Δ%D values than did the residual group (all P <0.05). The good-responder group had lower pre-D and pre-ADC values than did the poor-responder group (both P <0.05). Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, pre-D had the highest area under the curve in predicting both the early and short-term responses to CRT for NPC patients (0.817 and 0.854, respectively).IVIM-DWI is more valuable than DCE-MRI in predicting the early and short-term response to CRT for NPC, and furthermore diffusion-related IVIM-DWI parameters (pre-ADC, pre-D, and Δ%D) are more powerful than perfusion-related parameters derived from both IVIM-DWI and DCE-MRI. PMID:27583847

  19. Estimation and Short-Term Prediction of the Course of the HIV Epidemic Using Demographic and Health Survey Methodology-Like Data

    PubMed Central

    Blaizot, Stéphanie; Riche, Benjamin; Maman, David; Mukui, Irene; Kirubi, Beatrice; Etard, Jean-François; Ecochard, René

    2015-01-01

    Background Mathematical models have played important roles in the understanding of epidemics and in the study of the impacts of various behavioral or medical measures. However, modeling accurately the future spread of an epidemic requires context-specific parameters that are difficult to estimate because of lack of data. Our objective is to propose a methodology to estimate context-specific parameters using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)-like data that can be used in mathematical modeling of short-term HIV spreading. Methods and Findings The model splits the population according to sex, age, HIV status, and antiretroviral treatment status. To estimate context-specific parameters, we used individuals’ histories included in DHS-like data and a statistical analysis that used decomposition of the Poisson likelihood. To predict the course of the HIV epidemic, sex- and age-specific differential equations were used. This approach was applied to recent data from Kenya. The approach allowed the estimation of several key epidemiological parameters. Women had a higher infection rate than men and the highest infection rate in the youngest age groups (15–24 and 25–34 years) whereas men had the highest infection rate in age group 25–34 years. The immunosuppression rates were similar between age groups. The treatment rate was the highest in age group 35–59 years in both sexes. The results showed that, within the 15–24 year age group, increasing male circumcision coverage and antiretroviral therapy coverage at CD4 ≤ 350/mm3 over the current 70% could have short-term impacts. Conclusions The study succeeded in estimating the model parameters using DHS-like data rather than literature data. The analysis provides a framework for using the same data for estimation and prediction, which can improve the validity of context-specific predictions and help designing HIV prevention campaigns. PMID:26091253

  20. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN. PMID:26447470

  1. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

  2. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN usingimages of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN. PMID:26447470

  3. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G.; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R.; Vashist, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score. PMID:26886613

  4. Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jiancang; Jiang, Changsheng

    2012-02-01

    The Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency in China is held by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) in order to provide one-year earthquake predictions over most China. In these predictions, regions of concern are denoted together with the corresponding magnitude range of the largest earthquake expected during the next year. Evaluating the performance of these earthquake predictions is rather difficult, especially for regions that are of no concern, because they are made on arbitrary regions with flexible magnitude ranges. In the present study, the gambling score is used to evaluate the performance of these earthquake predictions. Based on a reference model, this scoring method rewards successful predictions and penalizes failures according to the risk (probability of being failure) that the predictors have taken. Using the Poisson model, which is spatially inhomogeneous and temporally stationary, with the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitudes as the reference model, we evaluate the CEA predictions based on 1) a partial score for evaluating whether issuing the alarmed regions is based on information that differs from the reference model (knowledge of average seismicity level) and 2) a complete score that evaluates whether the overall performance of the prediction is better than the reference model. The predictions made by the Annual Consultation Meetings on Earthquake Tendency from 1990 to 2003 are found to include significant precursory information, but the overall performance is close to that of the reference model.

  5. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  6. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  7. Short-Term Surveillance of Cytokines and C-Reactive Protein Cannot Predict Efficacy of Fecal Microbiota Transplantation for Ulcerative Colitis

    PubMed Central

    Li, Pan; He, Zhi; Long, Chuyan; Wei, Lu; Peng, Zhaoyuan; Ji, Guozhong; Zhang, Faming

    2016-01-01

    Objective There were no reports on predicting long-term efficacy of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) for ulcerative colitis (UC). This study aimed to detect short-term changes of cytokines and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with UC undergoing FMT, and to evaluate the predictive value of CRP and cytokines for the long-term efficacy of FMT. Methods Nineteen patients with moderate to severe UC (Mayo score ≥ 6) were treated with single fresh FMT through mid-gut. Serum samples were collected before and three days post-FMT. Clinical responses were evaluated by a minimum follow-up of three months. Patients with clinical improvement and remission at the assessment point of three-month were included as response group, while patients without clinical improvement or remission were included as non-response group. Serum concentrations of cytokines (IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-11, IL-17A, IFN-γ, TNF, TNFR-1, TNFR-2, MCP-1, G-CSF, GM-CSF) and CRP were assayed to predict the clinical response of FMT. Results In total, 10.5% (2/19) of patients achieved clinical remission and 47.4% (9/19) achieved clinical improvement (Response group, including clinical remission and clinical improvement), 42.1% (8/19) failed to benefit from FMT (Non-response group). In both Response group and Non-response group, the level of CRP at three days after FMT didn’t show significant decrease compared with that before FMT (p>0.05). However, in Response group, CRP level at three months after FMT decreased significantly than that before FMT (p<0.05). Compared with healthy controls (n = 9), patients with UC showed a higher baseline level of serum IL-6, TNFR-2 and G-CSF, and a lower level of IL-2 and IL-4 (p<0.05). In both Response group and Non-response group, none of the eleven detectable cytokines showed a significant difference between the value at three days after FMT and that before FMT (p>0.05). Conclusions Patients with moderate to severe UC presented a complex disorder of

  8. The 2004 Parkfield, CA Earthquake: A Teachable Moment for Exploring Earthquake Processes, Probability, and Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better

  9. The attention-weighted sample-size model of visual short-term memory: Attention capture predicts resource allocation and memory load.

    PubMed

    Smith, Philip L; Lilburn, Simon D; Corbett, Elaine A; Sewell, David K; Kyllingsbæk, Søren

    2016-09-01

    We investigated the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) in a phase discrimination task that required judgments about the configural relations between pairs of black and white features. Sewell et al. (2014) previously showed that VSTM capacity in an orientation discrimination task was well described by a sample-size model, which views VSTM as a resource comprised of a finite number of noisy stimulus samples. The model predicts the invariance of [Formula: see text] , the sum of squared sensitivities across items, for displays of different sizes. For phase discrimination, the set-size effect significantly exceeded that predicted by the sample-size model for both simultaneously and sequentially presented stimuli. Instead, the set-size effect and the serial position curves with sequential presentation were predicted by an attention-weighted version of the sample-size model, which assumes that one of the items in the display captures attention and receives a disproportionate share of resources. The choice probabilities and response time distributions from the task were well described by a diffusion decision model in which the drift rates embodied the assumptions of the attention-weighted sample-size model.

  10. The attention-weighted sample-size model of visual short-term memory: Attention capture predicts resource allocation and memory load.

    PubMed

    Smith, Philip L; Lilburn, Simon D; Corbett, Elaine A; Sewell, David K; Kyllingsbæk, Søren

    2016-09-01

    We investigated the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) in a phase discrimination task that required judgments about the configural relations between pairs of black and white features. Sewell et al. (2014) previously showed that VSTM capacity in an orientation discrimination task was well described by a sample-size model, which views VSTM as a resource comprised of a finite number of noisy stimulus samples. The model predicts the invariance of [Formula: see text] , the sum of squared sensitivities across items, for displays of different sizes. For phase discrimination, the set-size effect significantly exceeded that predicted by the sample-size model for both simultaneously and sequentially presented stimuli. Instead, the set-size effect and the serial position curves with sequential presentation were predicted by an attention-weighted version of the sample-size model, which assumes that one of the items in the display captures attention and receives a disproportionate share of resources. The choice probabilities and response time distributions from the task were well described by a diffusion decision model in which the drift rates embodied the assumptions of the attention-weighted sample-size model. PMID:27494766

  11. Earthquake prediction activities and Damavand earthquake precursor test site in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhtari, Mohammad

    2010-01-01

    of short-term prediction of medium- and large -size earthquakes is based on Markov and extended self-similarity analysis of seismic data. The establishment of the test site is ongoing, and the methodology has been selected based on the IASPEI evaluation report on the most important precursors with installation of (i) a local dense seismic network consisting of 25 short-period seismometers, (ii) a GPS network consisting of eight instruments with 70 stations, (iii) magnetic network with four instruments, and (iv) radon gas and a physico-chemical study on the springs and deep water wells

  12. The U.S. Earthquake Prediction Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Filson, J.R.

    1981-01-01

    There are two distinct motivations for earthquake prediction. The mechanistic approach aims to understand the processes leading to a large earthquake. The empirical approach is governed by the immediate need to protect lives and property. With our current lack of knowledge about the earthquake process, future progress cannot be made without gathering a large body of measurements. These are required not only for the empirical prediction of earthquakes, but also for the testing and development of hypotheses that further our understanding of the processes at work. The earthquake prediction program is basically a program of scientific inquiry, but one which is motivated by social, political, economic, and scientific reasons. It is a pursuit that cannot rely on empirical observations alone nor can it carried out solely on a blackboard or in a laboratory. Experiments must be carried out in the real Earth. 

  13. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Collaborative Model for Accelerating Research into Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Lapenta, W.; Jedlovec, G.; Dodge, J.; Bradshaw, T.

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama was created to accelerate the infusion of NASA earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The principal focus of experimental products is on the regional scale with an emphasis on forecast improvements on a time scale of 0-24 hours. The SPoRT Center research is aligned with the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues ranging from convective initiation to 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The SPoRT Center, together with its other interagency partners, universities, and the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, provides a means and a process to effectively transition NASA Earth Science Enterprise observations and technology to National Weather Service operations and decision makers at both the global/national and regional scales. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future.

  14. Efficacy of Simple Short-Term in Vitro Assays for Predicting the Potential of Metal Oxide Nanoparticles to Cause Pulmonary Inflammation

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Senlin; Duffin, Rodger; Poland, Craig; Daly, Paul; Murphy, Fiona; Drost, Ellen; MacNee, William; Stone, Vicki; Donaldson, Ken

    2009-01-01

    Background There has been concern regarding risks from inhalation exposure to nanoparticles (NPs). The large number of particles requiring testing means that alternative approaches to animal testing are needed. Objectives We set out to determine whether short-term in vitro assays that assess intrinsic oxidative stress potential and membrane-damaging potency of a panel of metal oxide NPs can be used to predict their inflammogenic potency. Methods For a panel of metal oxide NPs, we investigated intrinsic free radical generation, oxidative activity in an extracellular environment, cytotoxicity to lung epithelial cells, hemolysis, and inflammation potency in rat lungs. All exposures were carried out at equal surface area doses. Results Only nickel oxide (NiO) and alumina 2 caused significant lung inflammation when instilled into rat lungs at equal surface area, suggesting that these two had extra surface reactivity. We observed significant free radical generation with 4 of 13 metal oxides, only one of which was inflammogenic. Only 3 of 13 were significantly hemolytic, two of which were inflammogenic. Conclusions Potency in generating free radicals in vitro did not predict inflammation, whereas alumina 2 had no free radical activity but was inflammogenic. The hemolysis assay was correct in predicting the proinflammatory potential of 12 of 13 of the particles examined. Using a battery of simple in vitro tests, it is possible to predict the inflammogenicity of metal oxide NPs, although some false-positive results are likely. More research using a larger panel is needed to confirm the efficacy and generality of this approach for metal oxide NPs. PMID:19270794

  15. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  16. G-Protein/β-Arrestin-Linked Fluctuating Network of G-Protein-Coupled Receptors for Predicting Drug Efficacy and Bias Using Short-Term Molecular Dynamics Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Ichikawa, Osamu; Fujimoto, Kazushi; Yamada, Atsushi; Okazaki, Susumu; Yamazaki, Kazuto

    2016-01-01

    The efficacy and bias of signal transduction induced by a drug at a target protein are closely associated with the benefits and side effects of the drug. In particular, partial agonist activity and G-protein/β-arrestin-biased agonist activity for the G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) family, the family with the most target proteins of launched drugs, are key issues in drug discovery. However, designing GPCR drugs with appropriate efficacy and bias is challenging because the dynamic mechanism of signal transduction induced by ligand—receptor interactions is complicated. Here, we identified the G-protein/β-arrestin-linked fluctuating network, which initiates large-scale conformational changes, using sub-microsecond molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the β2-adrenergic receptor (β2AR) with a diverse collection of ligands and correlation analysis of their G protein/β-arrestin efficacy. The G-protein-linked fluctuating network extends from the ligand-binding site to the G-protein-binding site through the connector region, and the β-arrestin-linked fluctuating network consists of the NPxxY motif and adjacent regions. We confirmed that the averaged values of fluctuation in the fluctuating network detected are good quantitative indexes for explaining G protein/β-arrestin efficacy. These results indicate that short-term MD simulation is a practical method to predict the efficacy and bias of any compound for GPCRs. PMID:27187591

  17. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion. PMID:24458636

  18. Earthquake prediction; new studies yield promising results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, R.

    1974-01-01

    On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road. 

  19. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  20. The effect of flow and orography on the spatial distribution of the very short-term predictability of rainfall from composite radar images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foresti, L.; Seed, A.

    2014-11-01

    The spatial distribution and scale dependence of the very short-term predictability of precipitation by Lagrangian persistence of composite radar images is studied under different flow regimes in connection with the presence of orographic features. Data from the weather radar composite of eastern Victoria, Australia, a 500 × 500 km2 domain at 10 min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolutions, covering the period from February 2011 to October 2012, were used for the analyses. The scale dependence of the predictability of precipitation is considered by decomposing the radar rainfall field into an eight-level multiplicative cascade using a fast Fourier transform. The rate of temporal development of precipitation in Lagrangian coordinates is estimated at each level of the cascade under different flow regimes, which are stratified by applying a k-means clustering algorithm on the diagnosed velocity fields. The predictability of precipitation is measured by its lifetime, which is derived by integrating the Lagrangian auto-correlation function. The lifetimes were found to depend on the scale of the feature as a power law, which is known as dynamic scaling, and to vary as a function of flow regime. The lifetimes also exhibit significant spatial variability and are approximately a factor of 2 longer on the upwind compared with the downwind slopes of terrain features. The scaling exponent of the spatial power spectrum also shows interesting geographical differences. These findings provide opportunities to perform spatially inhomogeneous stochastic simulations of space-time precipitation to account for the presence of orography, which may be integrated into design storm simulations and stochastic precipitation nowcasting systems.

  1. The PreViBOSS project: study the short term predictability of the visibility change during the Fog life cycle, from surface and satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, T.; Haeffelin, M.; Ramon, D.; Gomes, L.; Brunet, F.; Vrac, M.; Yiou, P.; Hello, G.; Petithomme, H.

    2010-07-01

    Fog prejudices major activities as transport and Earth observation, by critically reducing atmospheric visibility with no continuity in time and space. Fog is also an essential factor of air quality and climate as it modifies particle properties of the surface atmospheric layer. Complexity, diversity and the fine scale of processes make uncertain by current numerical weather prediction models, not only visibility diagnosis but also fog event prediction. Extensive measurements of atmospheric parameters are made on the SIRTA since 1997 to document physical processes over the atmospheric column, in the Paris suburb area, typical of an environment intermittently under oceanic influence and affected by urban and industrial pollution. The ParisFog field campaign hosted in SIRTA during 6-month in winter 2006-2007 resulted in the deployment of instrumentation specifically dedicated to study physical processes in the fog life cycle: thermodynamical, radiative, dynamical, microphysical processes. Analysis of the measurements provided a preliminary climatology of the episodes of reduced visibility, chronology of processes was delivered by examining time series of measured parameters and a closure study was performed on optical and microphysical properties of particles (aerosols to droplets) during the life cycle of a radiative fog, providing the relative contribution of several particle groups to extinction in clear-sky conditions, in haze and in fog. PreViBOSS is a 3-year project scheduled to start this year. The aim is to improve the short term prediction of changes in atmospheric visibility, at a local scale. It proposes an innovative approach: applying the Generalised Additive Model statistical method to the detailed and extended dataset acquired at SIRTA. This method offers the opportunity to explore non linear relationships between parameters, which are not yet integrated in current numerical models. Emphasis will be put on aerosols and their impact on the fog life

  2. Earthquake source inversion of tsunami runup prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekar, Anusha

    Our goal is to study two inverse problems: using seismic data to invert for earthquake parameters and using tide gauge data to invert for earthquake parameters. We focus on the feasibility of using a combination of these inverse problems to improve tsunami runup prediction. A considerable part of the thesis is devoted to studying the seismic forward operator and its modeling using immersed interface methods. We develop an immersed interface method for solving the variable coefficient advection equation in one dimension with a propagating singularity and prove a convergence result for this method. We also prove a convergence result for the one-dimensional acoustic system of partial differential equations solved using immersed interface methods with internal boundary conditions. Such systems form the building blocks of the numerical model for the earthquake. For a simple earthquake-tsunami model, we observe a variety of possibilities in the recovery of the earthquake parameters and tsunami runup prediction. In some cases the data are insufficient either to invert for the earthquake parameters or to predict the runup. When more data are added, we are able to resolve the earthquake parameters with enough accuracy to predict the runup. We expect that this variety will be true in a real world three dimensional geometry as well.

  3. Development of a short-term irradiance prediction system using post-processing tools on WRF-ARW meteorological forecasts in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rincón, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2010-09-01

    The increased contribution of solar energy in power generation sources requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance conditioned by geographical, temporal and meteorological conditions. The knowledge of the variability of these factors is essential to estimate the expected energy production and therefore help stabilizing the electricity grid and increase the reliability of available solar energy. The use of numerical meteorological models in combination with statistical post-processing tools may have the potential to satisfy the requirements for short-term forecasting of solar irradiance for up to several days ahead and its application in solar devices. In this contribution, we present an assessment of a short-term irradiance prediction system based on the WRF-ARW mesoscale meteorological model (Skamarock et al., 2005) and several post-processing tools in order to improve the overall skills of the system in an annual simulation of the year 2004 in Spain. The WRF-ARW model is applied with 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution and 38 vertical layers over the Iberian Peninsula. The hourly model irradiance is evaluated against more than 90 surface stations. The stations are used to assess the temporal and spatial fluctuations and trends of the system evaluating three different post-processes: Model Output Statistics technique (MOS; Glahn and Lowry, 1972), Recursive statistical method (REC; Boi, 2004) and Kalman Filter Predictor (KFP, Bozic, 1994; Roeger et al., 2003). A first evaluation of the system without post-processing tools shows an overestimation of the surface irradiance, due to the lack of atmospheric absorbers attenuation different than clouds not included in the meteorological model. This produces an annual BIAS of 16 W m-2 h-1, annual RMSE of 106 W m-2 h-1 and annual NMAE of 42%. The largest errors are observed in spring and summer, reaching RMSE of 350 W m-2 h-1. Results using Kalman Filter Predictor show a reduction of 8% of RMSE, 83% of BIAS

  4. Possibility of Earthquake-prediction by analyzing VLF signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Suman; Chakrabarti, Sandip Kumar; Sasmal, Sudipta

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of seismic events is one of the most challenging jobs for the scientific community. Conventional ways for prediction of earthquakes are to monitor crustal structure movements, though this method has not yet yield satisfactory results. Furthermore, this method fails to give any short-term prediction. Recently, it is noticed that prior to any seismic event a huge amount of energy is released which may create disturbances in the lower part of D-layer/E-layer of the ionosphere. This ionospheric disturbance may be used as a precursor of earthquakes. Since VLF radio waves propagate inside the wave-guide formed by lower ionosphere and Earth's surface, this signal may be used to identify ionospheric disturbances due to seismic activity. We have analyzed VLF signals to find out the correlations, if any, between the VLF signal anomalies and seismic activities. We have done both the case by case study and also the statistical analysis using a whole year data. In both the methods we found that the night time amplitude of VLF signals fluctuated anomalously three days before the seismic events. Also we found that the terminator time of the VLF signals shifted anomalously towards night time before few days of any major seismic events. We calculate the D-layer preparation time and D-layer disappearance time from the VLF signals. We have observed that this D-layer preparation time and D-layer disappearance time become anomalously high 1-2 days before seismic events. Also we found some strong evidences which indicate that it may possible to predict the location of epicenters of earthquakes in future by analyzing VLF signals for multiple propagation paths.

  5. Short-term energy outlook: Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornett, C.; Paxson, D.; Reznek, A. P.; Chu, C.; Sitzer, S.; Gamson, N.; Childress, J. P.; Paul, S.; Weigel, H.; Sutton, S.

    1981-05-01

    Detailed discussions of forecasting methodology and analytical topics concerning short-term energy markets are presented. Major assumptions necessary to make the energy forecasts are also discussed. Supplementary analyses of topics related to short-term energy forecasting are also given. The discussions relate to the forecasts prepared using the short term integrated forecasting system. This set of computer models uses data from various sources to develop energy supply and demand balances. Econmetric models used to predict the demand for petroleum products, natural gas, coal, and electricity are discussed. Price prediction models are also discussed. The role of oil inventories in world oil markets is reviewed. Various relationship between weather patterns and energy consumption are discussed.

  6. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    PubMed Central

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  7. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    PubMed Central

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  8. The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melby-Lervag, Monica

    2012-01-01

    The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

  9. The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melby-Lervag, Monica

    2012-01-01

    The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development, has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. Evidence clearly suggests that the relation between reading skills, phoneme awareness, rhyme awareness, and verbal short-term memory is more than a mere association. A strong argument has…

  10. A Short-term In vivo Screen using Fetal Testosterone Production, a Key Event in the Phthalate Adverse Outcome Pathway, to Predict Disruption of Sexual Differentiation.

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study was designed to develop and validate a short-term in vivo protocol termed the Fetal Phthalate Screen (FPS) to detect phthalate esters (PEs) and other chemicals that disrupt fetal testosterone synthesis and testis gene expression in rats. We propose that the FPS can be ...

  11. Development of Short-term Molecular Thresholds to Predict Long-term Mouse Liver Tumor Outcomes: Phthalate Case StudyTo be

    EPA Science Inventory

    Molecular Thresholds for Early Key Events in Liver Tumorgensis: PhthalateCase StudyTriangleShort-term changes in molecular profiles are a central component of strategies to model health effects of environmental chemicals such as phthalates, for which there is widespread human exp...

  12. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  13. Microearthquake networks and earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, W.H.K.; Steward, S. W.

    1979-01-01

    A microearthquake network is a group of highly sensitive seismographic stations designed primarily to record local earthquakes of magnitudes less than 3. Depending on the application, a microearthquake network will consist of several stations or as many as a few hundred . They are usually classified as either permanent or temporary. In a permanent network, the seismic signal from each is telemetered to a central recording site to cut down on the operating costs and to allow more efficient and up-to-date processing of the data. However, telemetering can restrict the location sites because of the line-of-site requirement for radio transmission or the need for telephone lines. Temporary networks are designed to be extremely portable and completely self-contained so that they can be very quickly deployed. They are most valuable for recording aftershocks of a major earthquake or for studies in remote areas.  

  14. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

  15. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  16. The First Results of Testing Methods and Algorithms for Automatic Real Time Identification of Waveforms Introduction from Local Earthquakes in Increased Level of Man-induced Noises for the Purposes of Ultra-short-term Warning about an Occurred Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gravirov, V. V.; Kislov, K. V.

    2009-12-01

    The chief hazard posed by earthquakes consists in their suddenness. The number of earthquakes annually recorded is in excess of 100,000; of these, over 1000 are strong ones. Great human losses usually occur because no devices exist for advance warning of earthquakes. It is therefore high time that mobile information automatic systems should be developed for analysis of seismic information at high levels of manmade noise. The systems should be operated in real time with the minimum possible computational delays and be able to make fast decisions. The chief statement of the project is that sufficiently complete information about an earthquake can be obtained in real time by examining its first onset as recorded by a single seismic sensor or a local seismic array. The essential difference from the existing systems consists in the following: analysis of local seismic data at high levels of manmade noise (that is, when the noise level may be above the seismic signal level), as well as self-contained operation. The algorithms developed during the execution of the project will be capable to be used with success for individual personal protection kits and for warning the population in earthquake-prone areas over the world. The system being developed for this project uses P and S waves as well. The difference in the velocities of these seismic waves permits a technique to be developed for identifying a damaging earthquake. Real time analysis of first onsets yields the time that remains before surface waves arrive and the damage potential of these waves. Estimates show that, when the difference between the earthquake epicenter and the monitored site is of order 200 km, the time difference between the arrivals of P waves and surface waves will be about 30 seconds, which is quite sufficient to evacuate people from potentially hazardous space, insertion of moderators at nuclear power stations, pipeline interlocking, transportation stoppage, warnings issued to rescue services

  17. 76 FR 19123 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-06

    ... Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012, on the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and on....S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1-day meeting on April 16, 2011. The...

  18. Predictive factors of short-term survival from acute myocardial infarction in early and late patients in Isfahan and Najafabad, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Abdolazimi, Mohammad; Khosravi, Alireza; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Salehiniya, Hamid; Golshahi, Jafar

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the primary cause of mortality in the world and Iran. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic factors of short-term survival from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in early and late patients in the Najafabad and Isfahan County, Iran. METHODS This hospital-based cohort study was conducted using the hospital registry of 1999-2009 in Iran. All patients (n = 14426) with an AMI referred to hospitals of Isfahan and Najafabad were investigated. To determine prognostic factors of short-term (28-days) survival in early and late patients, unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was calculated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression. RESULTS The short-term (28-day) survival rate of early and late patients was 96.64% and 89.42% (P < 0.001), respectively. In 80% of early and 79.3% of late patients, mortality occurred during the first 7 days of disease occurrence. HR of death was higher in women in the two groups; it was 1.97 in early patients was (CI95%: 1.32-2.92) and 1.35 in late patients (CI95%: 1.19-1.53) compared to men. HR of death had a rising trend with the increasing of age in the two groups. CONCLUSION Short-term survival rate was higher in early patients than in late patients. In addition, case fatality rate (CFR) of AMI in women was higher than in men. In both groups, sex, age, an atomic location of myocardial infarction based on the International Classification of Disease, Revision 10 (ICD10), cardiac enzymes, and clinical symptoms were significant predictors of survival in early and late patients following AMI. PMID:27429625

  19. Short-term forecasting regional model to predict M(3000)F2 over the European sector: Comparisons with the IRI model during moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietrella, M.

    2014-07-01

    The hourly measurements of M(3000)F2 (M(3000)F2meas) and the hourly quiet-time values of M(3000)F2 (M(3000)F2QT) relative to the ionospheric observatories of Poitiers, Lannion, Dourbes, Slough, Rome, Juliusruh, Kaliningrad, Uppsala, Lyckesele, Sodankyla, and Kiruna as well as the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap (ap(τ), were considered during the period January 1957-December 2003 and used for the development of 11 short-term forecasting local models (STFLM) of M(3000)F2. Under the assumption that the ionospheric disturbance index ln(M(3000)F2meas/M(3000)F2QT) is correlated to the integrated geomagnetic index ap(τ), a set of regression coefficients were established over 12 months and 24 h for each of the 11 observatories under consideration and used as input to calculate the short-term ionospheric forecasting of M(3000)F2 for three different ranges of geomagnetic activity. The 11 short-term forecasting local models all together constitute a single short-term forecasting regional model (STFRM) of M(3000)F2. The monthly median predictions of M(3000)F2 provided by the IRI model at the 11 local stations were used to make some comparisons with the predictions of M(3000)F2 carried out by the STFRM. The results showed that: (1) under moderate geomagnetic activity there are no significantly differences between STFRM and IRI performance because quiet geomagnetic conditions are not so diverse from moderate geomagnetic conditions; (2) under disturbed geomagnetic activity, performances of STFRM significantly better than IRI emerge only in some cases; (3) the STFRM's performances are always significantly better than those provided by IRI under very disturbed geomagnetic activity, consequently the operative use of the STFRM could be valuable in providing short-term forecasting maps of M(3000)F2 over the European area during very disturbed geomagnetic conditions.

  20. The nonlinear predictability of the electrotelluric field variations data analyzed with support vector machines as an earthquake precursor.

    PubMed

    Ifantis, A; Papadimitriou, S

    2003-10-01

    This work investigates the nonlinear predictability of the Electro Telluric Field (ETF) variations data in order to develop new intelligent tools for the difficult task of earthquake prediction. Support Vector Machines trained on a signal window have been used to predict the next sample. We observe a significant increase at this short-term unpredictability of the ETF signal at about two weeks time period before the major earthquakes that took place in regions near the recording devices. The unpredictability increase can be attributed to a quick time variation of the dynamics that produce the ETF signal due to the earthquake generation process. Thus, this increase can be taken into advantage for signaling for an increased possibility of a large earthquake within the next few days in the neighboring region of the recording station.

  1. A radon detector for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dacey, James

    2010-04-01

    Recent events in Haiti and Chile remind us of the devastation that can be wrought by an earthquake, especially when it strikes without warning. For centuries, people living in seismically active regions have reported a number of strange occurrences immediately prior to a quake, including unexpected weather phenomena and even unusual behaviour among animals. In more recent times, some scientists have suggested other precursors, such as sporadic bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the fault zone. Unfortunately, none of these suggestions has led to a robust, scientific method for earthquake prediction. Now, however, a group of physicists, led by physics Nobel laureate Georges Charpak, has developed a new detector that could measure one of the more testable earthquake precursors - the suggestion that radon gas is released from fault zones prior to earth slipping, writes James Dacey.

  2. Earthquake prediction: Simple methods for complex phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luen, Bradley

    2010-09-01

    Earthquake predictions are often either based on stochastic models, or tested using stochastic models. Tests of predictions often tacitly assume predictions do not depend on past seismicity, which is false. We construct a naive predictor that, following each large earthquake, predicts another large earthquake will occur nearby soon. Because this "automatic alarm" strategy exploits clustering, it succeeds beyond "chance" according to a test that holds the predictions _xed. Some researchers try to remove clustering from earthquake catalogs and model the remaining events. There have been claims that the declustered catalogs are Poisson on the basis of statistical tests we show to be weak. Better tests show that declustered catalogs are not Poisson. In fact, there is evidence that events in declustered catalogs do not have exchangeable times given the locations, a necessary condition for the Poisson. If seismicity followed a stochastic process, an optimal predictor would turn on an alarm when the conditional intensity is high. The Epidemic-Type Aftershock (ETAS) model is a popular point process model that includes clustering. It has many parameters, but is still a simpli_cation of seismicity. Estimating the model is di_cult, and estimated parameters often give a non-stationary model. Even if the model is ETAS, temporal predictions based on the ETAS conditional intensity are not much better than those of magnitude-dependent automatic (MDA) alarms, a much simpler strategy with only one parameter instead of _ve. For a catalog of Southern Californian seismicity, ETAS predictions again o_er only slight improvement over MDA alarms

  3. Short-Term Vocational Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Botterbusch, Karl F.

    This guide is intended to assist vocational rehabilitation counselors in planning and conducting short-term vocational evaluations of clients. The first section discusses the elements that must be included in a comprehensive vocational evaluation. Next, strategies for conducting a vocational evaluation are explained. The next section, a case study…

  4. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  5. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    PubMed

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions.

  6. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    PubMed

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions. PMID:24749963

  7. Predictability of repeating earthquakes near Parkfield, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zechar, J. Douglas; Nadeau, Robert M.

    2012-07-01

    We analyse sequences of repeating microearthquakes that were identified by applying waveform coherency methods to data from the Parkfield High-Resolution Seismic Network. Because by definition all events in a sequence have similar magnitudes and locations, the temporal behaviour of these sequences is naturally isolated, which, coupled with the high occurrence rates of small events, makes these data ideal for studying interevent time distributions. To characterize the temporal predictability of these sequences, we perform retrospective forecast experiments using hundreds of earthquakes. We apply three variants of a simple algorithm that produces sequence-specific, time-varying hazard functions, and we find that the sequences are predictable. We discuss limitations of these data and, more generally, challenges in identifying repeating events, and we outline the potential implications of our results for understanding the occurrence of large earthquakes.

  8. On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models

    PubMed Central

    Marzocchi, W; Melini, D

    2014-01-01

    Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process. PMID:26074643

  9. Neural network models for earthquake magnitude prediction using multiple seismicity indicators.

    PubMed

    Panakkat, Ashif; Adeli, Hojjat

    2007-02-01

    Neural networks are investigated for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the following month based on the analysis of eight mathematically computed parameters known as seismicity indicators. The indicators are selected based on the Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic earthquake magnitude distribution and also on the conclusions drawn by recent earthquake prediction studies. Since there is no known established mathematical or even empirical relationship between these indicators and the location and magnitude of a succeeding earthquake in a particular time window, the problem is modeled using three different neural networks: a feed-forward Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation (LMBP) neural network, a recurrent neural network, and a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. Prediction accuracies of the models are evaluated using four different statistical measures: the probability of detection, the false alarm ratio, the frequency bias, and the true skill score or R score. The models are trained and tested using data for two seismically different regions: Southern California and the San Francisco bay region. Overall the recurrent neural network model yields the best prediction accuracies compared with LMBP and RBF networks. While at the present earthquake prediction cannot be made with a high degree of certainty this research provides a scientific approach for evaluating the short-term seismic hazard potential of a region.

  10. 77 FR 53225 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-31

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: Department of the... National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1\\1/2\\ day meeting on September 17 and 18, 2012, at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC),...

  11. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  12. Prediction of Earthquakes by Lunar Cicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, G.

    2007-05-01

    Prediction of Earthquakes by Lunar Cicles Author ; Guillermo Rodriguez Rodriguez Afiliation Geophysic and Astrophysicist. Retired I have exposed this idea to many meetings of EGS, UGS, IUGG 95, from 80, 82.83,and AGU 2002 Washington and 2003 Niza I have thre aproximition in Time 1º Earthquakes hapen The same day of the years every 18 or 19 years (cicle Saros ) Some times in the same place or anhother very far . In anhother moments of the year , teh cicle can be are ; 14 years, 26 years, 32 years or the multiples o 18.61 years expecial 55, 93, 224, 150 ,300 etcetc. For To know the day in the year 2º Over de cicle o one Lunation ( Days over de date of new moon) The greats Earthquakes hapens with diferents intervals of days in the sucesives lunations (aproximately one month) like we can be see in the grafic enclosed. For to know the day of month 3º Over each day I have find that each 28 day repit aproximately the same hour and minute. The same longitude and the same latitud in all earthquakes , also the littles ones . This is very important because we can to proposse only the precaution of wait it in the street or squares Whenever some times the cicles can be longuers or more littles This is my special way of cientific metode As consecuence of the 1º and 2º principe we can look The correlation between years separated by cicles of the 1º tipe For example 1984 and 2002 0r 2003 and consecutive years include 2007...During 30 years I have look de dates. I am in my subconcense the way but I can not make it in scientific formalisme

  13. An evaluation of the seismic- window theory for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNutt, M.; Heaton, T.H.

    1981-01-01

    Reports studies designed to determine whether earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area respond to a fortnightly fluctuation in tidal amplitude. It does not appear that the tide is capable of triggering earthquakes, and in particular the seismic window theory fails as a relevant method of earthquake prediction. -J.Clayton

  14. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    headquarters until 9 p.m.: families, school classes with and without teachers, civil protection groups, journalists. This initiative, built up in a few weeks, had a very large feedback, also due to the media highlighting the presumed prediction. Although we could not rule out the possibility of a strong earthquake in central Italy (with effects in Rome) we tried to explain the meaning of short term earthquake prediction vs. probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Despite many people remained with the fear (many decided to take a day off and leave the town or stay in public parks), we contributed to reduce this feeling and therefore the social cost of this strange Roman day. Moreover, another lesson learned is that these (fortunately sporadic) circumstances, when people's attention is high, are important opportunities for science communication. We thank all the INGV colleagues who contributed to the May 11 Open Day, in particular the Press Office, the Educational and Outreach laboratory, the Graphics Laboratory and SissaMedialab. P.S. no large earthquake happened

  15. Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Day, S.M.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes often occur on faults that juxtapose different rocks. The result is rupture behavior that differs from that of an earthquake occurring on a fault in a homogeneous material. Previous 2D numerical simulations have studied simple cases of earthquake rupture propagation where there is a material contrast across a fault and have come to two different conclusions: 1) earthquake rupture propagation direction can be predicted from the material contrast, and 2) earthquake rupture propagation direction cannot be predicted from the material contrast. In this paper we provide observational evidence from 70 years of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, and new 3D numerical simulations. Both the observations and the numerical simulations demonstrate that earthquake rupture propagation direction is unlikely to be predictable on the basis of a material contrast. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

    2015-06-01

    The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with

  17. Quantifying characteristic growth dynamics in a semiarid grassland ecosystem by predicting short-term NDVI phenology from daily rainfall: a simple 4 parameter coupled-reservoir model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Predicting impacts of the magnitude and seasonal timing of rainfall pulses in water-limited grassland ecosystems concerns ecologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, and a variety of stakeholders. This report describes a simple, effective procedure to emulate the seasonal response of grassland bio...

  18. Long short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Hochreiter, S; Schmidhuber, J

    1997-11-15

    Learning to store information over extended time intervals by recurrent backpropagation takes a very long time, mostly because of insufficient, decaying error backflow. We briefly review Hochreiter's (1991) analysis of this problem, then address it by introducing a novel, efficient, gradient-based method called long short-term memory (LSTM). Truncating the gradient where this does not do harm, LSTM can learn to bridge minimal time lags in excess of 1000 discrete-time steps by enforcing constant error flow through constant error carousels within special units. Multiplicative gate units learn to open and close access to the constant error flow. LSTM is local in space and time; its computational complexity per time step and weight is O(1). Our experiments with artificial data involve local, distributed, real-valued, and noisy pattern representations. In comparisons with real-time recurrent learning, back propagation through time, recurrent cascade correlation, Elman nets, and neural sequence chunking, LSTM leads to many more successful runs, and learns much faster. LSTM also solves complex, artificial long-time-lag tasks that have never been solved by previous recurrent network algorithms.

  19. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  20. Ability of serum C-reactive protein and white blood cell cout in predicting acute schemic stroke. A short -term follow-up study

    PubMed Central

    Bakhshayesh-Eghbali, Babak; Roudbary, Seyed-Ali; Basir Jafari, Seddigheh; Nabizadeh, Seyedeh-Parand; Naderi-Asrami, Naghmeh; Sohrabnejad, Reza

    2016-01-01

    Background: Stroke is one of the leading causes of mortality and long-term morbidity. The aim of the present study was to determine the ability of baseline serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC) values in predicting the outcome of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: This study consisted of patients with first AIS referred to Poursina Hospital, Rasht, Iran. Severity of stroke was determined according to the National Institute of Health (NIH) Stroke Scale at the time of admission. Serum CRP levels and WBC count were measured at the time of admission. All patients were followed-up for 90 days after discharge and the severity of stroke was assessed using modified Rankin Scale. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used for calculating the most appropriate cutoff point of CRP and WBC count for differentiating patients with and without poor outcome at the end of the study period. Results: A total of 53 out of 102 patients (52%) had poor outcome. The most appropriate cutoff value for CRP in differentiating patients with and without poor outcome was 8.5mg/l (sensitivity: 73.1%, specificity: 69.4%) and for WBC the difference did not reach to a significant level. The cutoff points of CRP > 10.5 mg/ml yielded a predictive ability at sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 63.8% whereas predictive ability of WBC for mortality was at a borderline level. Conclusion: These findings indicate that high levels of serum CRP in AIS at the time of admission is associated with poor prognosis. However, this study found no ability for WBC in predicting AIS outcome. PMID:27757207

  1. Response of biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation to short-term changes in central site, local, and predicted particle number concentrations

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Christina H.; Williams, Paige L.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Patton, Allison P.; Spengler, John D.; Brugge, Doug

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Previous studies have reported acute (hours–28 days) associations between ambient ultrafine particles (UFP; diameter <0.1) and biomarkers of cardiovascular health using central site data. We evaluated particle number concentration (a proxy measure for UFP) measured at a central site, a local near-highway site and predicted residential concentrations with response of biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation in a near-highway population. Methods Participants provided two blood samples for analysis of interleukin-6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), tumor necrosis factor-α receptor II, and fibrinogen. Mixed effect models were used to evaluate the association between PNC levels on the same day, prior 2 days, and moving averages of 3 to 28 days. Results Estimated effects on biomarkers of a 5000 unit increase in central site PNC generally increased with longer averaging times for IL-6, hs-CRP, and fibrinogen. Effect estimates were highest for a 28-day moving average, with 91% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9, 230) higher IL-6 levels, 74% (95% CI: −7, 220) higher hs-CRP levels, and 59% (95% CI: −13, 130) higher fibrinogen levels. We observed no clear trend between near-highway or predicted residential PNC and any of the biomarkers. Conclusions Only central site PNC increased blood markers of inflammation while near-highway and predicted residential values did not. We cannot fully explain this result, although differing PNC composition is a possibility. Future studies would assist in understanding these findings. PMID:25791025

  2. A clinical prediction rule for classifying patients with low back pain who demonstrate short-term improvement with mechanical lumbar traction.

    PubMed

    Cai, Congcong; Pua, Yong Hao; Lim, Kian Chong

    2009-04-01

    The objective of the study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for identifying patients with low back pain, who improved with mechanical lumbar traction. A prospective, cohort study was conducted in a physiotherapy clinic at a local hospital. Patients with low back pain, referred to physiotherapy were included in the study. The intervention was a standardized mechanical lumbar traction program, which comprised three sessions provided within 9 days. Patient demographic information, standard physical examination, numeric pain scale, fear-avoidance beliefs questionnaire and Oswestry low back pain disability index (pre- and post-intervention) were recorded. A total of 129 patients participated in the study and 25 had positive response to the mechanical lumbar traction. A clinical prediction rule with four variables (non-involvement of manual work, low level fear-avoidance beliefs, no neurological deficit and age above 30 years) was identified. The presence of all four variables (positive likelihood ratio = 9.36) increased the probability of response rate with mechanical lumbar traction from 19.4 to 69.2%. It appears that patients with low back pain who were likely to respond to mechanical lumbar traction may be identified.

  3. Comparison of very short-term load forecasting techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, K.; Kwan, C.; Lewis, F.L.; Subbarayan, S.; Shoults, R.R.; Manry, M.T.; Naccarino, J.

    1996-05-01

    Three practical techniques--Fuzzy Logic (FL), Neural Networks (NN), and Auto-regressive model (AR)--for very short-term load forecasting have been proposed and discussed in this paper. Their performances are evaluated through a simulation study. The preliminary study shows that it is feasible to design a simple, satisfactory dynamic forecaster to predict the very short-term load trends on-line. FL and NN can be good candidates for this application.

  4. Short Term Exogenic Climate Change Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krahenbuhl, Daniel

    Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

  5. A new Bayesian network-based risk stratification model for prediction of short-term and long-term LVAD mortality.

    PubMed

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Kanwar, Manreet K; Druzdzel, Marek J; Benza, Raymond L; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow LVAD patients and 226 preimplant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time end-points postimplant (30 days, 90 days, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years), achieving accuracies of 95%, 90%, 90%, 83%, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 91%, 82%, 82%, 80%, and 81%, respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57% and 60% at 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Preimplant interventions, such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relations of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation. PMID:25710772

  6. Short-term climate prediction for South-Western Siberia, based on comparison of reconstructed annual temperature variability between recent 430 yrs interval and Roman era warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalugin, I.; Daryin, A.; Babich, V.; Myglan, V.; Ovchinikov, D.

    2009-04-01

    instrumental temperature and precipitation data for 1840-1991, with lake level measurements in Yailu station for 1930-2006, with local dendrochronologies and other time series. Before calibration linear scale was transformed to time scale using XRD values as a portion of water content for correction on each step. Both time series of proxies and environmental data were preliminary smoothed by the same run average according to desired time scale. Variability of annual temperature and of generalized climate index (Dev. T - Dev. P) [1] was considered to search analogues between recent and past time intervals. The best coincidence was obtained for intervals 310BC - 120AD and 1560-1990AD, where correlation coefficient amounted to 0, 44 for 2000 points. The more smoothing of source data was applied - the correlation was higher. Also, sum of single periodicities after spectral Fourier analysis of primary time series showed the same results. Taking into account this good coincidence, the prolongation of the past temperature profile (moved forward on 1870 years) is possible to consider as predicted time interval after AD1990. The authentic duration of prediction may be accepted not less than 10% of compared time intervals i.e. 40 years. Certainly, it concerns only to natural component of climate variability. Real excess of temperature ~2oC in AD1990-2005 is explained by human impact. [1] I. Kalugin et al. The 800 year long annual records of air temperature and precipitation over Southern Siberia inferred from high-resolution time-series of Teletskoye Lake sediments. Quaternary Research. 67 (2007) 400-410.

  7. Distal radial artery pressures predict angiographic result and short-term patency outcome in hemodialysis patients with juxta-anastomotic inflow stenosis of radiocephalic fistula undergoing transradial angioplasty.

    PubMed

    Lai, Chi-Cheng; Fang, Hua-Chang; Lin, Ching-Hwung; Mar, Guang-Yuan; Tseng, Ching-Jiunn; Liu, Chun-Peng

    2013-06-01

    Distal radial artery pressure (RAP) was observed to be reduced after transradial percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) on the juxta-anastomotic venous stenosis of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (RCAVF). Distal RAPs are easily obtained from a pressure transducer connected with an introducer retrograde inserted into distal radial artery. The clinical role of distal RAP in the setting of transradial PTA remains unknown. This prospective and observational study aimed to explore the relationship between distal RAPs and clinical outcomes. This study recruited hemodialysis patients with RCAVF juxta-anastomotic venous stenosis undergoing transradial PTA. RAP-related variables and procedural data before PTA (pre-PTA) and after PTA (post-PTA) were analyzed. The study endpoint was dysfunction-driven re-PTA during the 1-year follow-up. Overall, 73 PTAs significantly reduced the mean of systolic RAPs from 159.6 ± 41.4 to 108.4 ± 41.5 mm Hg; P < 0.0001. Post-PTA systolic RAP was associated with angiographic outcome (P = 0.004) and unassisted patency at 3 months (P = 0.036), but not at 6, 9, or 12 months (P > 0.05). The group with angiographically successful PTAs had a significantly lower mean of post-PTA systolic RAPs compared with that with unsuccessful PTAs (98.4 ± 35.4 vs. 128.7 ± 46.1 mm Hg; P = 0.003). The post-PTA systolic RAP may be seen as a predictor for 3-month unassisted patency (AUC = 0.669; P = 0.048). In conclusion, this study provides the RAP profile to help guide transradial PTA on RCAVF juxta-anastomotic venous stenosis and predict 3-month unassisted patency in a hemodynamic manner.

  8. Risk stratification of adult emergency department syncope patients to predict short-term serious outcomes after discharge (RiSEDS) study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background While Canadian ED physicians discharge most syncope patients with no specific further follow-up, approximately 5% will suffer serious outcomes after ED discharge. The goal of this study is to prospectively identify risk factors and to derive a clinical decision tool to accurately predict those at risk for serious outcomes after ED discharge within 30 days. Methods/Design We will conduct a prospective cohort study at 6 Canadian EDs to include adults with syncope and exclude patients with loss of consciousness > 5 minutes, mental status changes from baseline, obvious witnessed seizure, or head trauma prior to syncope. Emergency physicians will collect standardized clinical variables including historical features, physical findings, and results of immediately available tests (blood, ECG, and ED cardiac monitoring) prior to ED discharge/hospital admission. A second emergency physician will evaluate approximately 10% of study patients for interobserver agreement calculation of predictor variables. The primary outcome will be a composite serious outcome occurring within 30 days of ED discharge and includes three distinct categories: serious adverse events (death, arrhythmia); identification of serious underlying disease (structural heart disease, aortic dissection, pulmonary embolism, severe pulmonary hypertension, subarachnoid hemorrhage, significant hemorrhage, myocardial infarction); or procedures to treat the cause of syncope. The secondary outcome will be any of the above serious outcomes either suspected or those occurring in the ED. A blinded Adjudication Committee will confirm all serious outcomes. Univariate analysis will be performed to compare the predictor variables in patients with and without primary outcome. Variables with p-values <0.2 and kappa values ≥0.60 will be selected for stepwise logistic regression to identify the risk factors and to develop the clinical decision tool. We will enroll 5,000 patients (with 125 positive for

  9. Neural network based short term load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, C.N.; Wu, H.T. . Dept. of Electrical Engineering); Vemuri, S. . Controls and Composition Div.)

    1993-02-01

    The artificial neural network (ANN) technique for short term load forecasting (STLF) has been proposed by several authors, and gained a lot of attention recently. In order to evaluate ANN as a viable technique for STLF, one has to evaluate the performance of ANN methodology for practical considerations of STLF problems. This paper makes an attempt to address these issues. The paper presents the results of a study to investigate whether the ANN model is system dependent, and/or case dependent. Data from two utilities were used in modeling and forecasting. In addition, the effectiveness of a next 24 hour ANN model is predicting 24 hour load profile at one time was compared with the traditional next one hour ANN model.

  10. Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klee, H.

    The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

  11. Predicting the short-term risk of diabetes in HIV-positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study

    PubMed Central

    Petoumenos, Kathy; Worm, Signe W; Fontas, Eric; Weber, Rainer; De Wit, Stephane; Bruyand, Mathias; Reiss, Peter; El-Sadr, Wafaa; Monforte, Antonella D'Arminio; Friis-Møller, Nina; Lundgren, Jens D; Law, Matthew G

    2012-01-01

    Introduction HIV-positive patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) frequently experience metabolic complications such as dyslipidemia and insulin resistance, as well as lipodystrophy, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Rates of DM and other glucose-associated disorders among HIV-positive patients have been reported to range between 2 and 14%, and in an ageing HIV-positive population, the prevalence of DM is expected to continue to increase. This study aims to develop a model to predict the short-term (six-month) risk of DM in HIV-positive populations and to compare the existing models developed in the general population. Methods All patients recruited to the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with follow-up data, without prior DM, myocardial infarction or other CVD events and with a complete DM risk factor profile were included. Conventional risk factors identified in the general population as well as key HIV-related factors were assessed using Poisson-regression methods. Expected probabilities of DM events were also determined based on the Framingham Offspring Study DM equation. The D:A:D and Framingham equations were then assessed using an internal-external validation process; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and predicted DM events were determined. Results Of 33,308 patients, 16,632 (50%) patients were included, with 376 cases of new onset DM during 89,469 person-years (PY). Factors predictive of DM included higher glucose, body mass index (BMI) and triglyceride levels, and older age. Among HIV-related factors, recent CD4 counts of<200 cells/µL and lipodystrophy were predictive of new onset DM. The mean performance of the D:A:D and Framingham equations yielded AUROC of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.849, 0.940) and 0.877 (95% CI: 0.823, 0.932), respectively. The Framingham equation over-predicted DM events compared to D:A:D for lower glucose and lower

  12. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    parameters and seismic events. Further development of the H-104 method is the plotting of H-104 trajectories in two-dimensional time coordinates. The method provides the dates of future earthquakes for several (3-4) sequential time intervals multiple of 104 days. The H-104 method could be used together with the empirical scheme for short-term earthquake prediction reducing the date uncertainty. Using the H-104 method, it is developed the following long-term forecast of seismic activity. 1. The total number of M6+ earthquakes expected in the time frames: - 10.01-07.02: 14; - 08.02-08.03: 17; - 09.03-06.04: 9. 3. The potential days of M6+ earthquakes expected in the period of 10.01.2016-06.04.2016 are the following: - in January: 17, 18, 23, 24, 26, 28, 31; - in February: 01, 02, 05, 12, 15, 18, 20, 23; - in March: 02, 04, 05, 07 (M7+ is possible), 09, 10, 17 (M7+ is possible), 19, 20 (M7+ is possible), 23 (M7+ is possible), 30; - in April: 02, 06. The work was financially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (contract No. 14.577.21.0109, project UID RFMEFI57714X0109)

  13. 76 FR 69761 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ... briefings on lessons learned from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan subduction earthquakes, monitoring and....S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey. ACTION: Notice of Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National...

  14. Short-term intercultural psychotherapy: ethnographic inquiry.

    PubMed

    Seeley, Karen M

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical practice. Such approaches allow clinicians conducting short-term intercultural treatments to foreground clients' indigenous conceptions of selfhood, mind, relationship, and emotional disturbance, and thus to more fully grasp their internal, interpersonal, and external worlds. This article demonstrates the uses of clinically adapted ethnographic inquiry in three short-term intercultural cases. PMID:14964524

  15. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

  16. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

    2009-12-01

    Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

  17. Introduction to the special issue on the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.

    2006-01-01

    The 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, a long-anticipated event on the San Andreas fault, is the world's best recorded earthquake to date, with state-of-the-art data obtained from geologic, geodetic, seismic, magnetic, and electrical field networks. This has allowed the preearthquake and postearthquake states of the San Andreas fault in this region to be analyzed in detail. Analyses of these data provide views into the San Andreas fault that show a complex geologic history, fault geometry, rheology, and response of the nearby region to the earthquake-induced ground movement. Although aspects of San Andreas fault zone behavior in the Parkfield region can be modeled simply over geological time frames, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake indicate that predicting the fine details of future earthquakes is still a challenge. Instead of a deterministic approach, forecasting future damaging behavior, such as that caused by strong ground motions, will likely continue to require probabilistic methods. However, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have provided ample data to understand most of what did occur in 2004, culminating in significant scientific advances.

  18. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    SciTech Connect

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-23

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  19. Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, L.M.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake.

  20. Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seeley, Karen M.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

  1. Evaluation of the seismic-window theory for earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    McNutt, M.; Heaton, T.H.

    1981-01-01

    The intent of this study was to determine whether earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area respond to a fortnightly fluctuation in tidal amplitude. A correlation between seismic events and any tidal period would contribute to the understanding of the earthquake process and the stress regime within which faulting occurs. Correlations between the longer tidal periods and seismicity might provide a useful tool for earthquake prediction. The US Geological Survey (USGS) performed a computer evaluation of this prediction method. This article reports the results of the USGS study.

  2. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-04-30

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  3. Prospects for earthquake prediction and control

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Lee, W.H.K.; Pakiser, L.C.; Raleigh, C.B.; Wood, M.D.

    1972-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is viewed, according to the concepts of seafloor spreading and plate tectonics, as a transform fault that separates the Pacific and North American plates and along which relative movements of 2 to 6 cm/year have been taking place. The resulting strain can be released by creep, by earthquakes of moderate size, or (as near San Francisco and Los Angeles) by great earthquakes. Microearthquakes, as mapped by a dense seismograph network in central California, generally coincide with zones of the San Andreas fault system that are creeping. Microearthquakes are few and scattered in zones where elastic energy is being stored. Changes in the rate of strain, as recorded by tiltmeter arrays, have been observed before several earthquakes of about magnitude 4. Changes in fluid pressure may control timing of seismic activity and make it possible to control natural earthquakes by controlling variations in fluid pressure in fault zones. An experiment in earthquake control is underway at the Rangely oil field in Colorado, where the rates of fluid injection and withdrawal in experimental wells are being controlled. ?? 1972.

  4. In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Urban, T.C.

    1985-01-01

    Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10-9 to 10-10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  5. Analyzing Short-Term Disability Benefits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houff, James N.; Wiatrowski, William J.

    1989-01-01

    The Bureau of Labour Statistics has combined data on sick leave and sickness and accident insurance. Results show that short-term disability benefits vary by length of service and between the private and public sectors. (Author)

  6. Interference-Based Forgetting in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewandowsky, Stephan; Geiger, Sonja M.; Oberauer, Klaus

    2008-01-01

    This article presents four experiments that tested predictions of SOB (Serial Order in a Box), an interference-based theory of short-term memory. Central to SOB is the concept of novelty-sensitive encoding, which holds that items are encoded to the extent that they differ from already-encoded information. On the additional assumption that…

  7. Relation between Intelligence and Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Ronald L.; Sandberg, Tor

    1977-01-01

    Intelligence and short-term memory correlations in children were measured using probed serial recall of supraspan digit lists. Results showed the predictive power of intelligence to range from a maximum in the case of recall for recency items to practically zero in the case of primacy items. (Author/MV)

  8. Reconstructing Clusters for Preconditioned Short-term Load Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itagaki, Tadahiro; Mori, Hiroyuki

    This paper presents a new preconditioned method for short-term load forecasting that focuses on more accurate predicted value. In recent years, the deregulated and competitive power market increases the degree of uncertainty. As a result, more sophisticated short-term load forecasting techniques are required to deal with more complicated load behavior. To alleviate the complexity of load behavior, this paper presents a new preconditioned model. In this paper, clustering results are reconstructed to equalize the number of learning data after clustering with the Kohonen-based neural network. That enhances a short-term load forecasting model at each reconstructed cluster. The proposed method is successfully applied to real data of one-step ahead daily maximum load forecasting.

  9. Dispatches from the Trench: Insights into the Complex Relationship Between the Short-Term Elastic Earthquake Cycle and Longer-Term Permanent Tectonic Deformation from the Coral Record at Ranongga, Western Solomons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirumalai, K.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Lavier, L. L.; Frohlich, C.; Wallace, L. M.; WU, C. C.; Sun, H.; Papabatu, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    Key insights into the amounts of plate convergence that have been accommodated as coseismic slip vs. other mechanisms over Holocene time scales are inferred from the timing and amounts of uplift associated with past megathrust earthquakes. A Mw 8.1 earthquake in 2007 helped us calibrate the relationship between megathrust rupture and the geography and amount of vertical displacement by measuring the amounts of coseismic uplift of shallow-living corals. We discovered, mapped and used 230Th ages of ancient in-situ corals extending 20 m higher than those killed by the 2007 uplift to build an uplift history on Ranongga and adjacent islands to reconstruct a series of forearc paleouplifts overlying the seismogenic zone extending from ~4 - 40 km from the trench. Our results are surprising: from mid-Holocene to present, we find distinct spatio-temporal heterogeneity in uplift across different sites that are located close together and find that there are far too few events (by ~50%) in our coral record to accommodate the current Australian-Pacific convergence rate of ~97mm/yr. These findings lead us to suggest that 1. uplift imposed during the 2007 Mw 8.1 event may be retained in some locations but removed in others prior to the next megathrust rupture; and 2. apart from large coseismic megathrust rupture, additional mechanisms such as smaller ruptures, slow slip events or aseismic creep, and/or splay faulting must help to accommodate at least half of the interplate convergence. Thus, we propose that the Western Solomon thrust be visualized as a fault zone, and not simply a fault plane: every time the system accommodates slip, a new set of cards is dealt. Though such a situation may or may not be unique to this region, coral paleogeodesy can provide detailed histories of vertical deformation at locations accruing uplift that can provide a foundation for hypotheses concerning the accommodation of interplate slip.

  10. Short-Term Uplift Rates and the Mountain Building Process in Southern Alaska

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sauber, Jeanne; Herring, Thomas A.; Meigs, Andrew; Meigs, Andrew

    1998-01-01

    We have used GPS at 10 stations in southern Alaska with three epochs of measurements to estimate short-term uplift rates. A number of great earthquakes as well as recent large earthquakes characterize the seismicity of the region this century. To reliably estimate uplift rates from GPS data, numerical models that included both the slip distribution in recent large earthquakes and the general slab geometry were constructed.

  11. Short-term MRI measurements as predictors of EDSS progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: grey matter atrophy but not lesions are predictive in a real-life setting

    PubMed Central

    Young, Kim; Schippling, Sven; Martin, Roland; Heesen, Christoph; Siemonsen, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    . Results Progression was observed in 24% of patients and was independent from treatment status. None of the predefined classifications were predictive for progression. Explorative post-hoc analyses found lower baseline EDSS and higher grey matter atrophy (FreeSurfer) as best predictors (R2 = 0.29) for EDSS progression and the accuracy was overall good (Area under the curve = 0.81). Conclusion Beside EDSS at baseline, short-term grey matter atrophy is predictive for EDSS progression in treated and untreated RRMS. The development of atrophy measurements for individual risk counselling and evaluation of treatment response seems possible, but needs further validation in larger cohorts. MRI-atrophy estimates from the FreeSurfer toolbox seem to be more reliable than older methods. PMID:27688965

  12. Short-term MRI measurements as predictors of EDSS progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: grey matter atrophy but not lesions are predictive in a real-life setting

    PubMed Central

    Young, Kim; Schippling, Sven; Martin, Roland; Heesen, Christoph; Siemonsen, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    . Results Progression was observed in 24% of patients and was independent from treatment status. None of the predefined classifications were predictive for progression. Explorative post-hoc analyses found lower baseline EDSS and higher grey matter atrophy (FreeSurfer) as best predictors (R2 = 0.29) for EDSS progression and the accuracy was overall good (Area under the curve = 0.81). Conclusion Beside EDSS at baseline, short-term grey matter atrophy is predictive for EDSS progression in treated and untreated RRMS. The development of atrophy measurements for individual risk counselling and evaluation of treatment response seems possible, but needs further validation in larger cohorts. MRI-atrophy estimates from the FreeSurfer toolbox seem to be more reliable than older methods.

  13. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.

    1996-01-01

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  14. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    PubMed

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  15. Sun-earth environment study to understand earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, S.

    2007-05-01

    Earthquake prediction is possible by looking into the location of active sunspots before it harbours energy towards earth. Earth is a restless planet the restlessness turns deadly occasionally. Of all natural hazards, earthquakes are the most feared. For centuries scientists working in seismically active regions have noted premonitory signals. Changes in thermosphere, Ionosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere are noted before the changes in geosphere. The historical records talk of changes of the water level in wells, of strange weather, of ground-hugging fog, of unusual behaviour of animals (due to change in magnetic field of the earth) that seem to feel the approach of a major earthquake. With the advent of modern science and technology the understanding of these pre-earthquake signals has become stronger enough to develop a methodology of earthquake prediction. A correlation of earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) from the active sunspots has been possible to develop as a precursor of the earthquake. Occasional local magnetic field and planetary indices (Kp values) changes in the lower atmosphere that is accompanied by the formation of haze and a reduction of moisture in the air. Large patches, often tens to hundreds of thousands of square kilometres in size, seen in night-time infrared satellite images where the land surface temperature seems to fluctuate rapidly. Perturbations in the ionosphere at 90 - 120 km altitude have been observed before the occurrence of earthquakes. These changes affect the transmission of radio waves and a radio black out has been observed due to CME. Another heliophysical parameter Electron flux (Eflux) has been monitored before the occurrence of the earthquakes. More than hundreds of case studies show that before the occurrence of the earthquakes the atmospheric temperature increases and suddenly drops before the occurrence of the earthquakes. These changes are being monitored by using Sun Observatory Heliospheric observatory

  16. Shaky grounds of earthquake hazard assessment, forecasting, and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2012-12-01

    The quality of the fit of a trivial or, conversely, delicately-designed model to the observed natural phenomena is the fundamental pillar stone of any forecasting, including seismic hazard assessment, earthquake forecasting, and prediction. Using precise mathematical and logical systems outside their range of applicability can mislead to scientifically groundless conclusions, which unwise application can be extremely dangerous in assessing expected risk and losses. Are the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard enough valid to qualify for being useful laws describing earthquake sequences? Seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical statistical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, are clustered displaying behaviors that are far from independent. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single fault zone. Evidently, such a situation complicates design of reliable methodologies for earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. The situation is not hopeless due to available geological evidences and deterministic pattern recognition approaches, specifically, when intending to predict predictable, but not the exact size, site, date, and probability of a target event. Understanding the complexity of non-linear dynamics of hierarchically organized systems of blocks-and-faults has led already to methodologies of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis and intermediate-term middle- to narrow-range earthquake prediction algorithms tested in real-time applications over the last decades.

  17. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  18. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed Central

    Tullis, T E

    1996-01-01

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks. Images Fig. 4 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 7 PMID:11607668

  19. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  20. Short-Term Play Therapy for Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaduson, Heidi Gerard, Ed.; Schaefer, Charles E., Ed.

    Play therapy offers a powerful means of helping children resolve a wide range of psychological difficulties, and many play approaches are ideally suited to short-term work. This book brings together leading play therapists to share their expertise on facilitating children's healing in a shorter time frame. The book provides knowledge and skills…

  1. Metropolitan French: Familiarization & Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iszkowski, Marie-Charlotte

    The U.S. Department of State's Foreign Service Institute French Familiarization and Short-Term (FAST) course for personnel working and living in France consists of 10 weeks of French language instruction combined with practical and cultural information. An introductory section outlines FAST course objectives and sample teaching techniques in…

  2. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Kanamori, H

    1996-04-30

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

  3. 78 FR 64973 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-30

    ... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data related... Council will receive several briefings on the history and current state of scientific investigations of..., and will be asked to advise the USGS on priorities for instrumentation and scientific...

  4. The use of serum glial fibrillary acidic protein test as a promising tool for intracerebral hemorrhage diagnosis in Chinese patients and prediction of the short-term functional outcomes.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Lijun; Yang, Yan; Zhang, Mei; Xu, Wuping

    2015-11-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the efficacy of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) in differentiating intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) from ischemic stroke (IS). Suspicious patients of acute stroke were screened and finally diagnosed by computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. Blood samples were collected within 2-6 h after onset of symptoms, and serum GFAP level was determined by ELISA assay. The functional outcome for the patients was determined by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 90 days after onset of symptoms. 43 ICH patients and 65 IS patients were enrolled. GFAP concentration in ICH group was significantly higher than in IS group (p < 0.001). Significant correlation was found when comparing GFAP with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (r = 0.418, p = 0.005) and hemorrhage volume (r = 0.840, p < 0.001) in ICH group, while such correlation was not observed in IS group. ROC analysis indicated that GFAP level at the cut-point of 0.7 ng/ml yielded an AUC of 0.901 (95 % CI 0.828-0.950) with high sensitivity (86.0 %) and specificity (76.9 %) to differentiate ICH from IS. Patients with higher serum GFAP concentration in ICH group experienced poorer functional disability (r = 0.755, p < 0.001), while this phenomenon was not observed in IS group (r = -0.114, p = 0.368). ROC curve analysis found that GFAP level at the cut-point of 1.04 ng/ml yielded an AUC of 0.936 (95 % CI 0.817-0.988) in identifying patients with poor functional outcome, at the sensitivity and specificity of 95.7 and 80.0 %, respectively. GFAP test is a promising technique for diagnosis of ICH from IS and prediction of short-term functional outcomes.

  5. An Earthquake Prediction System Using The Time Series Analyses of Earthquake Property And Crust Motion

    SciTech Connect

    Takeda, Fumihide; Takeo, Makoto

    2004-12-09

    We have developed a short-term deterministic earthquake (EQ) forecasting system similar to those used for Typhoons and Hurricanes, which has been under a test operation at website http://www.tec21.jp/ since June of 2003. We use the focus and crust displacement data recently opened to the public by Japanese seismograph and global positioning system (GPS) networks, respectively. Our system divides the forecasting area into the five regional areas of Japan, each of which is about 5 deg. by 5 deg. We have found that it can forecast the focus, date of occurrence and magnitude (M) of an impending EQ (whose M is larger than about 6), all within narrow limits. We have two examples to describe the system. One is the 2003/09/26 EQ of M 8 in the Hokkaido area, which is of hindsight. Another is a successful rollout of the most recent forecast on the 2004/05/30 EQ of M 6.7 off coast of the southern Kanto (Tokyo) area.

  6. Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Holme, Petter

    2012-07-17

    Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 341 d after the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010. Nineteen days after the earthquake, population movements had caused the population of the capital Port-au-Prince to decrease by an estimated 23%. Both the travel distances and size of people's movement trajectories grew after the earthquake. These findings, in combination with the disorder that was present after the disaster, suggest that people's movements would have become less predictable. Instead, the predictability of people's trajectories remained high and even increased slightly during the three-month period after the earthquake. Moreover, the destinations of people who left the capital during the first three weeks after the earthquake was highly correlated with their mobility patterns during normal times, and specifically with the locations in which people had significant social bonds. For the people who left Port-au-Prince, the duration of their stay outside the city, as well as the time for their return, all followed a skewed, fat-tailed distribution. The findings suggest that population movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought.

  7. Association between Early Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Symptoms and Current Verbal and Visuo-Spatial Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling

    2013-01-01

    Deficits in short-term memory are common in adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but their current ADHD symptoms cannot well predict their short-term performance. Taking a developmental perspective, we wanted to clarify the association between ADHD symptoms at early childhood and short-term memory in late childhood and…

  8. The economics of short-term leasing.

    PubMed

    Flath, D

    1980-04-01

    Short-term leasing is an everyday occurrence. Tax savings cannot account for the ubiquity of leasing by temporary users. Monopoly explanations are inconsistent with concurrent leasing and selling markets for perfect substitutes. Leasing economizes upon the costs of detecting, assuring, and maintaining quality, costs of search, and costs of risk-bearing. This view is based on standard economic reasoning and has numerous specific implications.

  9. Self-Organized Short-Term Memories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coppersmith, S. N.; Jones, T. C.; Kadanoff, L. P.; Levine, A.; McCarten, J. P.; Nagel, S. R.; Venkataramani, S. C.; Wu, Xinlei

    1997-05-01

    We report short-term memory formation in a nonlinear dynamical system with many degrees of freedom. The system ``remembers'' a sequence of impulses for a transient period, but it coarsens and eventually ``forgets'' nearly all of them. The memory duration increases as the number of degrees of freedom in the system increases. We demonstrate the existence of these transient memories in a laboratory experiment.

  10. How Emotional Pictures Influence Visuospatial Binding in Short-Term Memory in Ageing and Alzheimer's Disease?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Celine; Leroy, Nicolas; Favre, Emilie; Laurent, Bernard; Thomas-Anterion, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the prediction that emotion can facilitate short-term memory. Nevertheless, emotion also recruits attention to process information, thereby disrupting short-term memory when tasks involve high attentional resources. In this way, we aimed to determine whether there is a differential influence of emotional information on…

  11. Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The standard model for the origin of foreshocks is that they are earthquakes that trigger aftershocks larger than themselves (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989). This can be formally expressed in terms of a cascade model. In this model, aftershock magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, regardless of the size of the triggering earthquake, and aftershock timing and productivity follow Omori-Utsu scaling. An alternative hypothesis is that foreshocks are triggered incidentally by a nucleation process, such as pre-slip, that scales with mainshock size. If this were the case, foreshocks would potentially have predictive power of the mainshock magnitude. A number of predictions can be made from the cascade model, including the fraction of earthquakes that are foreshocks to larger events, the distribution of differences between foreshock and mainshock magnitudes, and the distribution of time lags between foreshocks and mainshocks. The last should follow the inverse Omori law, which will cause the appearance of an accelerating seismicity rate if multiple foreshock sequences are stacked (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003). All of these predictions are consistent with observations (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Felzer et al. 2004). If foreshocks were to scale with mainshock size, this would be strong evidence against the cascade model. Recently, Bouchon et al. (2013) claimed that the expected acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences before interplate earthquakes is higher prior to M≥6.5 mainshocks than smaller mainshocks. Our re-analysis fails to support the statistical significance of their results. In particular, we find that their catalogs are not complete to the level assumed, and their ETAS model underestimates inverse Omori behavior. To conclude, seismicity data to date is consistent with the hypothesis that the nucleation process is the same for earthquakes of all sizes.

  12. An approach to distribution short-term load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, R.C.; Gaustad, K.L.

    1995-03-01

    This paper reports on the developments and findings of the Distribution Short-Term Load Forecaster (DSTLF) research activity. The objective of this research is to develop a distribution short-term load forecasting technology consisting of a forecasting method, development methodology, theories necessary to support required technical components, and the hardware and software tools required to perform the forecast The DSTLF consists of four major components: monitored endpoint load forecaster (MELF), nonmonitored endpoint load forecaster (NELF), topological integration forecaster (TIF), and a dynamic tuner. These components interact to provide short-term forecasts at various points in the, distribution system, eg., feeder, line section, and endpoint. This paper discusses the DSTLF methodology and MELF component MELF, based on artificial neural network technology, predicts distribution endpoint loads for an hour, a day, and a week in advance. Predictions are developed using time, calendar, historical load, and weather data. The overall DSTLF architecture and a prototype MELF module for retail endpoints have been developed. Future work will be focused on refining and extending MELF and developing NELF and TIF capabilities.

  13. Why is earthquake prediction research not progressing faster?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, Max

    2001-08-01

    As a physical phenomenon, earthquakes must be predictable to a certain degree. However, the problem is difficult, because the source volume inside the earth is inaccessible to direct observation and because the most important parameter, the stress level, cannot be measured directly. Also, seismology is such a young science that the cause of earthquakes was discovered in the 1960s only. Advanced seismograph networks as well as modern techniques to measure crustal deformations, such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry technique (InSAR), have come on line only recently, and only in Japan are they deployed with the densities necessary for significant advances in the understanding of the rupture initiation process. In addition, no real program for earthquake prediction research exists in the United States, largely because funding agencies and peer reviewers shy away from a field in which unprofessional, but motivated individuals are active. Although claims of successful predictions are often not justified, a few correct predictions have been made. Most of these had time-windows of years, but some were accurate to days and allowed preparatory actions. To make significant progress, we must learn how to conduct rigorous science in a field where amateurs cannot be discouraged to venture. Leadership is necessary to raise the funding to an adequate level and to involve the best minds in this promising, potentially extremely rewarding, but controversial research topic.

  14. Auditory short-term memory behaves like visual short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Visscher, Kristina M; Kaplan, Elina; Kahana, Michael J; Sekuler, Robert

    2007-03-01

    Are the information processing steps that support short-term sensory memory common to all the senses? Systematic, psychophysical comparison requires identical experimental paradigms and comparable stimuli, which can be challenging to obtain across modalities. Participants performed a recognition memory task with auditory and visual stimuli that were comparable in complexity and in their neural representations at early stages of cortical processing. The visual stimuli were static and moving Gaussian-windowed, oriented, sinusoidal gratings (Gabor patches); the auditory stimuli were broadband sounds whose frequency content varied sinusoidally over time (moving ripples). Parallel effects on recognition memory were seen for number of items to be remembered, retention interval, and serial position. Further, regardless of modality, predicting an item's recognizability requires taking account of (1) the probe's similarity to the remembered list items (summed similarity), and (2) the similarity between the items in memory (inter-item homogeneity). A model incorporating both these factors gives a good fit to recognition memory data for auditory as well as visual stimuli. In addition, we present the first demonstration of the orthogonality of summed similarity and inter-item homogeneity effects. These data imply that auditory and visual representations undergo very similar transformations while they are encoded and retrieved from memory.

  15. Impact of Obstructive Sleep Apnea on the Levels of Placental Growth Factor (PlGF) and Their Value for Predicting Short-Term Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Barcelo, Antonia; Bauça, Josep Miquel; Yañez, Aina; Fueyo, Laura; Gomez, Cristina; de la Peña, Monica; Pierola, Javier; Rodriguez, Alberto; Sanchez-de-la-Torre, Manuel; Abad, Jorge; Mediano, Olga; Amilibia, Jose; Masdeu, Maria Jose; Teran, Joaquin; Montserrat, Josep Maria; Mayos, Mercè; Sanchez-de-la-Torre, Alicia; Barbé, Ferran

    2016-01-01

    Background Placental growth factor (PlGF) induces angiogenesis and promotes tissue repair, and plasma PlGF levels change markedly during acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Currently, the impact of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in patients with AMI is a subject of debate. Our objective was to evaluate the relationships between PlGF levels and both the severity of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and short-term outcomes after ACS in patients with and without OSA. Methods A total of 538 consecutive patients (312 OSA patients and 226 controls) admitted for ACS were included in this study. All patients underwent polygraphy in the first 72 hours after hospital admission. The severity of disease and short-term prognoses were evaluated during the hospitalization period. Plasma PlGF levels were measured using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Results Patients with OSA were significantly older and more frequently hypertensive and had higher BMIs than those without OSA. After adjusting for age, smoking status, BMI and hypertension, PlGF levels were significantly elevated in patients with OSA compared with patients without OSA (19.9 pg/mL, interquartile range: 16.6–24.5 pg/mL; 18.5 pg/mL, interquartile range: 14.7–22.7 pg/mL; p<0.001), and a higher apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was associated with higher PlGF concentrations (p<0.003). Patients with higher levels of PlGF had also an increased odds ratio for the presence of 3 or more diseased vessels and for a Killip score>1, even after adjustment. Conclusions The results of this study show that in patients with ACS, elevated plasma levels of PlGF are associated with the presence of OSA and with adverse outcomes during short-term follow-up. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01335087 PMID:26930634

  16. Subionospheric VLF/LF Probing of Ionospheric Perturbations Associated with Earthquakes: A Possibility of Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayakawa, Masashi; Horie, Takumi; Muto, Fumiya; Kasahara, Yasushi; Ohta, Kenji; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Hobara, Yasuhide

    The VLF (Very Low Frequency) / LF (Low Frequency) receiving network has been established in Japan, which is composed of seven observing stations (Moshiri (Hokkaido), Chofu (Tokyo, UEC, University of Electro-Communications), Tateyama (Chiba), Shimizu (Shizuoka), Kasugai (Aichi), Maizuru (Kyoto) and Kochi (Kochi)), and three additional foreign stations have been established in Kamchatka, Taiwan and Indonesia. At each station we observe simultaneously several VLF/LF transmitter signals (two Japanese transmitters with call signals fo JJY (Fukushima), JJI (Miyazaki)), and foreign VLF transmitters (NWC (Western Australia, Australia), NPM (Hawaii, USA), NLK (Washington, USA)). This Japanese VLF/LF network is used to study the ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes, and we present two recent results; (1) a statistical result on the correlation between VLF/LF propagation anomalies and earthquakes, and (2) the latest results during the last six months on the two particular propagation paths; JJY-Moshiri and JJY-Taiwan. Then, we discuss the correlation of ionospheric perturbations with earthquakes in the sense of a possibility of earthquake prediction by means of VLF propagation anomalies.

  17. Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reimer, G.M.

    1985-01-01

    The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160??80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of the M>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  18. Prediction of central California earthquakes from soil-gas helium fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reimer, G. M.

    1984-03-01

    The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160×80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of the M>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations.

  19. Is visual short-term memory depthful?

    PubMed

    Reeves, Adam; Lei, Quan

    2014-03-01

    Does visual short-term memory (VSTM) depend on depth, as it might be if information was stored in more than one depth layer? Depth is critical in natural viewing and might be expected to affect retention, but whether this is so is currently unknown. Cued partial reports of letter arrays (Sperling, 1960) were measured up to 700 ms after display termination. Adding stereoscopic depth hardly affected VSTM capacity or decay inferred from total errors. The pattern of transposition errors (letters reported from an uncued row) was almost independent of depth and cue delay. We conclude that VSTM is effectively two-dimensional. PMID:24491386

  20. 75 FR 63854 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-18

    ... completeness and scientific validity of the available data related to earthquake predictions, and on related... focus on: (1) Methods for rapidly estimating the probability of a large earthquake following a...

  1. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  2. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  3. VLF/LF Radio Sounding of Ionospheric Perturbations Associated with Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Hayakawa, Masashi

    2007-01-01

    It is recently recognized that the ionosphere is very sensitive to seismic effects, and the detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes, seems to be very promising for short-term earthquake prediction. We have proposed a possible use of VLF/LF (very low frequency (3-30 kHz) /low frequency (30-300 kHz)) radio sounding of the seismo-ionospheric perturbations. A brief history of the use of subionospheric VLF/LF propagation for the short-term earthquake prediction is given, followed by a significant finding of ionospheric perturbation for the Kobe earthquake in 1995. After showing previous VLF/LF results, we present the latest VLF/LF findings; One is the statistical correlation of the ionospheric perturbation with earthquakes and the second is a case study for the Sumatra earthquake in December, 2004, indicating the spatical scale and dynamics of ionospheric perturbation for this earthquake.

  4. Short-term electric load forecasting using neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Daugherty, E.; Bartlett, E.

    1993-12-31

    Short-term electric load forecasting (STELF) plays an important role in electric utilities, and several techniques are used to perform these predictions and system modelings. Recently, artificial neural networks (ANN`s) have been implemented for STELF with some success. This paper will examine improved STELF by optimization of ANN techniques. The strategy for the research involves careful selection of input variables and utilization of effective generalization. Some results have been obtained which show that, with the selection of another input variable, the ANN`s use for STELF can be improved.

  5. Short-term forecasting of aftershock sequences, microseismicity and swarms inside the Corinth Gulf continental rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segou, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Corinth Gulf (Central Greece) is the fastest continental rift in the world with extension rates 11-15 mm/yr with diverse seismic deformation including earthquakes with M greater than 6.0, several periods of increased microseismic activity, usually lasting few months and possibly related with fluid diffusion, and swarm episodes lasting few days. In this study I perform a retrospective forecast experiment between 1995-2012, focusing on the comparison between physics-based and statistical models for short term time classes. Even though Corinth gulf has been studied extensively in the past there is still today a debate whether earthquake activity is related with the existence of either a shallow dipping structure or steeply dipping normal faults. In the light of the above statement, two CRS realization are based on resolving Coulomb stress changes on specified receiver faults, expressing the aforementioned structural models, whereas the third CRS model uses optimally-oriented for failure planes. The CRS implementation accounts for stress changes following all major ruptures with M greater than 4.5 within the testing phase. I also estimate fault constitutive parameters from modeling the response to major earthquakes at the vicinity of the gulf (Aσ=0.2, stressing rate app. 0.02 bar/yr). The generic ETAS parameters are taken as the maximum likelihood estimates derived from the stochastic declustering of the modern seismicity catalog (1995-2012) with minimum triggering magnitude M2.5. I test whether the generic ETAS can efficiently describe the aftershock spatio-temporal clustering but also the evolution of swarm episodes and microseismicity. For the reason above, I implement likelihood tests to evaluate the forecasts for their spatial consistency and for the total amount of predicted versus observed events with M greater than 3.0 in 10-day time windows during three distinct evaluation phases; the first evaluation phase focuses on the Aigio 1995 aftershock sequence (15

  6. Vitreon, a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade.

    PubMed Central

    Blinder, K J; Peyman, G A; Desai, U R; Nelson, N C; Alturki, W; Paris, C L

    1992-01-01

    This investigation of the liquid perfluorocarbon, perfluorophenanthrene (Vitreon), establishes its safety and efficacy as a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade. We utilised Vitreon as an intraoperative tool and postoperative vitreoretinal tamponade in 16 patients. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) (six), giant retinal tear (four), rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (three), retinal detachment with keratoprosthesis (two), and submacular and vitreous haemorrhage (one) were successfully repaired. Vitreon was left in the eye and removed 5 days to 4 weeks postoperatively. Complications encountered included proliferative PVR (five), limited peripheral retinal detachment (three), macular pucker (two) cataract (three), hypotony (two), excessive fibrin reaction (one), and elevated intraocular pressure (one). At the latest evaluation, all retinas are attached with a follow-up of 1.25 to 12 months (mean 6.8 months). PMID:1420054

  7. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  8. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  9. Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

  10. Short-term hot hardness characteristics of rolling-element steels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chevalier, J. L.; Dietrich, M. W.; Zaretsky, E. V.

    1972-01-01

    Short-term hot hardness studies were performed with five vacuum-melted steels at temperatures from 294 to 887 K (70 to 1140 F). Based upon a minimum Rockwell C hardness of 58, the temperature limitation on all materials studied was dependent on the initial room temperature hardness and the tempering temperature of each material. For the same room temperature hardness, the short-term hot hardness characteristics were identical and independent of material composition. An equation was developed to predict the short-term hardness at temperature as a function of initial room temperature hardness for AISI 52100, as well as the high-speed tool steels.

  11. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  12. Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wulder, M.A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, J.G.; Dwyer, J.; Roy, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record. ?? 2010.

  13. Short term oral minocycline treatment of meibomianitis

    PubMed Central

    Aronowicz, J D; Shine, W E; Oral, D; Vargas, J M; McCulley, J P

    2006-01-01

    Aim To evaluate the clinical impact, aqueous tear parameters, and meibomian gland morphology in patients with primary meibomianitis before, during, and 3 months after a course of oral minocycline. Methods 16 patients were prospectively enrolled, 11 male and five female (mean age 69 years old). Each patient received routine clinical evaluations before, after 3 months therapy, and at 6 month study follow up visit. The clinical appearance, tear volume, flow and turnover, evaporation, Schirmer I test, meibomian gland dropout, lissamine green staining, and bacteriology wer evaluated. Results Improvement was observed in clinical signs of meibomianitis at the second and third visits. Microbial culture findings improved. Decreased aqueous tear volume and flow, and increased evaporation rate range at 35–45% relative humidity (RH) (p<0.05) were also detected. Other related tear parameters did not change. Meibomian gland dropout showed no improvement. Conclusions 3 months of oral minocycline resulted in clinical improvements in all meibomianitis signs that persisted for at least 3 months after discontinuation despite decreased aqueous tear volume and flow with increased evaporation (35–45% RH). However, there was improvement in the turbidity of secretions. Short term minocycline therapy probably has efficacy in the management of meibomianitis that extends beyond eradication of bacteria. PMID:16613920

  14. Short-term municipal water demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bougadis, John; Adamowski, Kaz; Diduch, Roman

    2005-01-01

    Water demand forecasts are needed for the design, operation and management of urban water supply systems. In this study, the relative performance of regression, time series analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) models are investigated for short-term peak water demand forecasting. The significance of climatic variables (rainfall and maximum air temperature, in addition to past water demand) on water demand management is also investigated.Numerical analysis was performed on data from the city of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. The existing water supply infrastructure will not be able to meet the demand for projected population growth; thus, a study is needed to determine the effect of peak water demand management on the sizing and staging of facilities for developing an expansion strategy. Three different ANNs and regression models and seven time-series models have been developed and compared. The ANN models consistently outperformed the regression and time-series models developed in this study. It has been found that water demand on a weekly basis is more significantly correlated with the rainfall amount than the occurrence of rainfall. Copyright

  15. Prediction model of earthquake with the identification of earthquake source polarity mechanism through the focal classification using ANFIS and PCA technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setyonegoro, W.

    2016-05-01

    Incidence of earthquake disaster has caused casualties and material in considerable amounts. This research has purposes to predictability the return period of earthquake with the identification of the mechanism of earthquake which in case study area in Sumatra. To predict earthquakes which training data of the historical earthquake is using ANFIS technique. In this technique the historical data set compiled into intervals of earthquake occurrence daily average in a year. Output to be obtained is a model return period earthquake events daily average in a year. Return period earthquake occurrence models that have been learning by ANFIS, then performed the polarity recognition through image recognition techniques on the focal sphere using principal component analysis PCA method. The results, model predicted a return period earthquake events for the average monthly return period showed a correlation coefficient 0.014562.

  16. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  17. Artificial neural networks for short term electrical load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Reinschmidt, K.F.

    1995-10-01

    The accurate prediction of hourly electrical demand one or more days ahead is of great economic importance to electric utilities for generation unit dispatch and unit commitment. Artificial neural networks for pattern recognition are developed to identify days in the historical record that are most similar to the days being forecasted, to use for load prediction. Artificial neural networks are also used to generate linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models, to project demands forward in time. The genetic algorithm is used to select the optimal set of independent variables for forecasting. Techniques are developed to combine forecasts derived from independent methods, to achieve better accuracy than any single forecast. In this way, artificial neural networks can be used to generate practical, accurate short-term electrical load forecasts.

  18. Testing time-predictable earthquake recurrence by direct measurement of strain accumulation and release.

    PubMed

    Murray, Jessica; Segall, Paul

    2002-09-19

    Probabilistic estimates of earthquake hazard use various models for the temporal distribution of earthquakes, including the 'time-predictable' recurrence model formulated by Shimazaki and Nakata (which incorporates the concept of elastic rebound described as early as 1910 by H. F. Reid). This model states that an earthquake occurs when the fault recovers the stress relieved in the most recent earthquake. Unlike time-independent models (for example, Poisson probability), the time-predictable model is thought to encompass some of the physics behind the earthquake cycle, in that earthquake probability increases with time. The time-predictable model is therefore often preferred when adequate data are available, and it is incorporated in hazard predictions for many earthquake-prone regions, including northern California, southern California, New Zealand and Japan. Here we show that the model fails in what should be an ideal locale for its application -- Parkfield, California. We estimate rigorous bounds on the predicted recurrence time of the magnitude approximately 6 1966 Parkfield earthquake through inversion of geodetic measurements and we show that, according to the time-predictable model, another earthquake should have occurred by 1987. The model's poor performance in a relatively simple tectonic setting does not bode well for its successful application to the many areas of the world characterized by complex fault interactions.

  19. Monitoring of ULF (ultra-low-frequency) Geomagnetic Variations Associated with Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Hayakawa, Masashi; Hattori, Katsumi; Ohta, Kenji

    2007-01-01

    ULF (ultra-low-frequency) electromagnetic emission is recently recognized as one of the most promising candidates for short-term earthquake prediction. This paper reviews previous convincing evidence on the presence of ULF emissions before a few large earthquakes. Then, we present our network of ULF monitoring in the Tokyo area by describing our ULF magnetic sensors and we finally present a few, latest results on seismogenic electromagnetic emissions for recent large earthquakes with the use of sophisticated signal processings.

  20. Earthquake prediction research at the Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1979-01-01

    Nevertheless, basic earthquake-related information has always been of consuming interest to the public and the media in this part of California (fig. 2.). So it is not surprising that earthquake prediction continues to be a significant reserach program at the laboratory. Several of the current spectrum of projects related to prediction are discussed below. 

  1. Earthquake ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    New earthquake ground-motion relations for hard-rock and soil sites in eastern North America (ENA), including estimates of their aleatory uncertainty (variability) have been developed based on a stochastic finite-fault model. The model incorporates new information obtained from ENA seismographic data gathered over the past 10 years, including three-component broadband data that provide new information on ENA source and path effects. Our new prediction equations are similar to the previous ground-motion prediction equations of Atkinson and Boore (1995), which were based on a stochastic point-source model. The main difference is that high-frequency amplitudes (f ??? 5 Hz) are less than previously predicted (by about a factor of 1.6 within 100 km), because of a slightly lower average stress parameter (140 bars versus 180 bars) and a steeper near-source attenuation. At frequencies less than 5 Hz, the predicted ground motions from the new equations are generally within 25% of those predicted by Atkinson and Boore (1995). The prediction equations agree well with available ENA ground-motion data as evidenced by near-zero average residuals (within a factor of 1.2) for all frequencies, and the lack of any significant residual trends with distance. However, there is a tendency to positive residuals for moderate events at high frequencies in the distance range from 30 to 100 km (by as much as a factor of 2). This indicates epistemic uncertainty in the prediction model. The positive residuals for moderate events at < 100 km could be eliminated by an increased stress parameter, at the cost of producing negative residuals in other magnitude-distance ranges; adjustment factors to the equations are provided that may be used to model this effect.

  2. The role of short-term memory in semantic priming.

    PubMed

    Beer, A L; Diehl, V A

    2001-07-01

    Two theories of priming were compared: spreading activation theories, in particular ACT, and compound-cue theories. Whereas ACT assumes that priming is a result of diffusing activation in long-term memory, compound-cue models suggest that priming results from a formation process of prime and target in short-term memory. Thirty-eight participants took part in a study that combined a digit span task with a double lexical decision task consisting of a prime and a target item. Digit span length (low, medium, and high) and prime type (related or unrelated word or nonword) were both within-subject variables. As expected, results showed significant priming effects. In favor of ACT, no interaction between digit span length and prime type was found. Additionally, a nonword inhibition effect (unrelated versus nonword prime) was found, which was predicted by compound-cue theories. This finding is discussed in terms of the process interference and response competition hypotheses.

  3. Short-term load forecasting with local ANN predictors

    SciTech Connect

    Drezga, I.; Rahman, S.

    1999-08-01

    A new technique for artificial neural network (ANN) based short-term load forecasting (STLF) is present in this paper. The technique implemented active selection of training data, employing the k-nearest neighbors concept. A novel concept of pilot simulation was used to determine the number of hidden units for the ANNs. The ensemble of local ANN predictors was used to produce the final forecast, whereby the iterative forecasting procedure used a simple average of ensemble ANNs. Results obtained using data from two US utilities showed forecasting accuracy comparable to those using similar techniques. Excellent forecasts for one-hour-ahead and five-days-ahead forecasting, robust behavior for sudden and large weather changes, low maximum errors and accurate peak-load predictions are some of the findings discussed in the paper.

  4. No temporal decay in verbal short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Lewandowsky, Stephan; Oberauer, Klaus; Brown, Gordon D A

    2009-03-01

    Many models of short-term memory (STM) ascribe an important role to temporal decay and forgetting because of the passage of time alone. We argue against decay as the primary form of forgetting from STM, and suggest that new experimental methodologies and recent models provide new perspectives on the old issue of the causes of forgetting. We show that several classic sources of evidence for time-based forgetting can be re-interpreted in terms of an interference-based view, and that new experiments provide compelling evidence against decay. We conclude that progress requires moving beyond demonstrations of qualitative effects and focusing instead on testing quantitative predictions of models. PMID:19223224

  5. Distinguishing short-term memory from working memory.

    PubMed

    Kail, R; Hall, L K

    2001-01-01

    The aim of the present research was to determine whether short-term memory and working memory could be distinguished. In two studies, 7- to 13-year-olds (N = 155, N = 132) were administered tasks thought to assess short-term memory as well as tasks thought to assess working memory. Both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses distinguished short-term memory tasks from working memory tasks. In addition, performance on working memory tasks was related to word decoding skill but performance on short-term memory tasks was not. Finally, performance on both short-term memory and working memory tasks were associated with age-related increases in processing speed. Results are discussed in relation to models of short-term and working memory.

  6. The Earthquake Prediction Experiment on the Basis of the Jet Stream's Precursor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, H. C.; Tikhonov, I. N.

    2014-12-01

    Simultaneous analysis of the jet stream maps and EQ data of M > 6.0 have been made. 58 cases of EQ occurred in 2006-2010 were studied. It has been found that interruption or velocity flow lines cross above an epicenter of EQ take place 1-70 days prior to event. The duration was 6-12 hours. The assumption is that jet stream will go up or down near an epicenter. In 45 cases the distance between epicenters and jet stream's precursor does not exceed 90 km. The forecast during 30 days before the EQ was 66.1 % (Wu and Tikhonov, 2014). This technique has been used to predict the strong EQ and pre-registered on the website (for example, the 23 October 2011, M 7.2 EQ (Turkey); the 20 May 2012, M 6.1 EQ (Italy); the 16 April 2013, M 7.8 EQ (Iran); the 12 November 2013, M 6.6 EQ (Russia); the 03 March 2014, M 6.7 Ryukyu EQ (Japan); the 21 July 2014, M 6.2 Kuril EQ). We obtain satisfactory accuracy of the epicenter location. As well we define the short alarm period. That's the positive aspects of forecast. However, estimates of magnitude contain a big uncertainty. Reference Wu, H.C., Tikhonov, I.N., 2014. Jet streams anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M > 6.0. Research in Geophysics, Special Issue on Earthquake Precursors. Vol. 4. No 1. doi:10.4081/rg.2014.4939. The precursor of M9.0 Japan EQ on 2011/03/11(fig1). A. M6.1 Italy EQ (2012/05/20, 44.80 N, 11.19 E, H = 5.1 km) Prediction: 2012/03/20~2012/04/20 (45.6 N, 10.5 E), M > 5.5(fig2) http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-764800 B. M7.8 Iran EQ (2013/04/16, 28.11 N, 62.05 E, H = 82.0 km) Prediction: 2013/01/14~2013/02/04 (28.0 N, 61.3 E) M > 6.0(fig3) http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-910919 C. M6.6 Russia EQ (2013/11/12, 54.68 N, 162.29 E, H = 47.2 km). Prediction: 2013/10/27~2013/11/13 (56.0 N, 162.9 E) M > 5.5 http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1053599 D. M6.7 Japan EQ (2014/03/03, 27.41 N, 127.34 E, H = 111.2 km). Prediction: 2013/12/02 ~2014/01/15 (26.7 N, 128.1 E) M > 6.5(fig4) http

  7. Risk Communication on Earthquake Prediction Studies -"No L'Aquila quake risk" experts probed in Italy in June 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, S.; Koketsu, K.; Kuwabara, E.; Tomari, J.

    2010-12-01

    For the previous 6 months from the L'Aquila earthquake which occurred on 6th April 2009, the seismicity in that region had been active. Having become even more active and reached to magnitude 4 earthquake on 30th March, the government held Major Risks Committee which is a part of the Civil Protection Department and is tasked with forecasting possible risks by collating and analyzing data from a variety of sources and making preventative recommendations. At the press conference immediately after the committee, they reported that "The scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." 6 days later, a magunitude 6.3 earthquake attacked L'Aquila and killed 308 people. On 3rd June next year, the prosecutors opened the investigation after complaints of the victims that far more people would have fled their homes that night if there had been no reassurances of the Major Risks Committee the previous week. This issue becomes widely known to the seismological society especially after an email titled "Letter of Support for Italian Earthquake Scientists" from seismologists at the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute (INGV) sent worldwide. It says that the L'Aquila Prosecutors office indicted of manslaughter the members of the Major Risks Committee and that the charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm to the population before the earthquake struck. It is true that there is no generalized method to predict earthquakes but failing the short term alarm is not the reason for the investigation of the scientists. The chief prosecutor stated that "the committee could have provided the people with better advice", and "it wasn't the case that they did not receive any warnings, because there had been tremors". The email also requests sign-on support for the open letter to the president of Italy from Earth sciences colleagues from all over the world and collected more than 5000 signatures

  8. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

  9. Information exchange between short term and long term operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weijs, Steven

    2016-04-01

    This research focuses on the interactions between optimal short term and long term operations of managed water systems. Stochastic Dynamic Programming is used as a framework to find and analyze optimal operations. When considering optimal operations under uncertainty, the short term operations are influenced by the long term optimal policy through the value function of the end-state at the short term horizon. Conversely, the optimal long-term operations are influenced by the value of future decisions, which is partly determined by the short term operations. This leads to a two-way information flow between short and long term operations. The implications of this information flow are discussed.

  10. Correlation between short-term and long-term intraocular pressure fluctuation in glaucoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Tojo, Naoki; Abe, Shinya; Miyakoshi, Mari; Hayashi, Atsushi

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We investigated correlations between short-term and long-term intraocular pressure (IOP) fluctuations. Methods We examined 50 eyes of glaucoma patients who were followed for >2 years. We measured short-term IOP fluctuation using a Triggerfish® contact lens sensor (CLS). The short-term IOP fluctuation (mVeq) was defined as the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value measured during the 24-hour course with CLS. The long-term IOP fluctuation was defined by four parameters: 1) the mean IOP (mmHg) determined during follow-up; 2) the IOP difference, which was defined as the difference between the maximum IOP and the minimum IOP; 3) the standard deviation of IOP; and 4) the peak IOP, which was defined as the maximum IOP. Correlations between these parameters and the short-term IOP fluctuation were examined. Results The mean follow-up period was 5.4 years. The average IOP was 15.0±4.0 mmHg. The range of short-term IOP fluctuation identified with CLS was significantly correlated with all the four long-term IOP fluctuation parameters. Conclusion Short-term IOP fluctuations were found to be associated with long-term IOP fluctuations. Examination of 24-hour IOP fluctuations with the CLS might be useful for predicting the long-term IOP fluctuation. PMID:27621590

  11. Correlation between short-term and long-term intraocular pressure fluctuation in glaucoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Tojo, Naoki; Abe, Shinya; Miyakoshi, Mari; Hayashi, Atsushi

    2016-01-01

    Purpose We investigated correlations between short-term and long-term intraocular pressure (IOP) fluctuations. Methods We examined 50 eyes of glaucoma patients who were followed for >2 years. We measured short-term IOP fluctuation using a Triggerfish® contact lens sensor (CLS). The short-term IOP fluctuation (mVeq) was defined as the difference between the maximum value and the minimum value measured during the 24-hour course with CLS. The long-term IOP fluctuation was defined by four parameters: 1) the mean IOP (mmHg) determined during follow-up; 2) the IOP difference, which was defined as the difference between the maximum IOP and the minimum IOP; 3) the standard deviation of IOP; and 4) the peak IOP, which was defined as the maximum IOP. Correlations between these parameters and the short-term IOP fluctuation were examined. Results The mean follow-up period was 5.4 years. The average IOP was 15.0±4.0 mmHg. The range of short-term IOP fluctuation identified with CLS was significantly correlated with all the four long-term IOP fluctuation parameters. Conclusion Short-term IOP fluctuations were found to be associated with long-term IOP fluctuations. Examination of 24-hour IOP fluctuations with the CLS might be useful for predicting the long-term IOP fluctuation.

  12. Working memory training improves visual short-term memory capacity.

    PubMed

    Schwarb, Hillary; Nail, Jayde; Schumacher, Eric H

    2016-01-01

    Since antiquity, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have been interested in human memory. However, researchers today are still working to understand the capabilities, boundaries, and architecture. While the storage capabilities of long-term memory are seemingly unlimited (Bahrick, J Exp Psychol 113:1-2, 1984), working memory, or the ability to maintain and manipulate information held in memory, seems to have stringent capacity limits (e.g., Cowan, Behav Brain Sci 24:87-185, 2001). Individual differences, however, do exist and these differences can often predict performance on a wide variety of tasks (cf. Engle What is working-memory capacity? 297-314, 2001). Recently, researchers have promoted the enticing possibility that simple behavioral training can expand the limits of working memory which indeed may also lead to improvements on other cognitive processes as well (cf. Morrison and Chein, Psychol Bull Rev 18:46-60 2011). However, initial investigations across a wide variety of cognitive functions have produced mixed results regarding the transferability of training-related improvements. Across two experiments, the present research focuses on the benefit of working memory training on visual short-term memory capacity-a cognitive process that has received little attention in the training literature. Data reveal training-related improvement of global measures of visual short-term memory as well as of measures of the independent sub-processes that contribute to capacity (Awh et al., Psychol Sci 18(7):622-628, 2007). These results suggest that the ability to inhibit irrelevant information within and between trials is enhanced via n-back training allowing for selective improvement on untrained tasks. Additionally, we highlight a potential limitation of the standard adaptive training procedure and propose a modified design to ensure variability in the training environment.

  13. Short-Term Memory as an Additional Predictor of School Achievement for Immigrant Children?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    te Nijenhuis, Jan; Resing, Wilma; Tolboom, Elsbeth; Bleichrodt, Nico

    2004-01-01

    The predictive validity and utility of assessment procedures can be increased by adding predictors to the prediction supplied by general ability tests. Of Jensen's early work comes the suggestion of focusing on the cognitive ability short-term memory (STM), especially for low-"g" Black children. Meta-analysis convincingly shows high predictive…

  14. Application of Rapid Earthquake Location for Earthquake Early Warning in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, K.; Rydelek, P. A.; Suk, B.

    2008-12-01

    Economic growth, industrialization and urbanization have made society more vulnerable then ever to seismic hazard in Korea. Although Korea has not experienced severe damage due to earthquakes during the last few decades, there is little doubt of the potential for large earthquakes in Korea as documented in the historical literature. As we see no immediate promise of short-term earthquake prediction with current science and technology, earthquake early warning systems attract more and more attention as a practical measure to mitigate damage from earthquakes. Earthquake early warning systems provide a few seconds to tens of seconds of warning time before the onset of strong ground shaking. To achieve rapid earthquake location, we propose to take full advantage of information from existing seismic networks; by using P wave arrival times at two nearest stations from the earthquake hypocenter and also information that P waves have not yet arrived at other stations. Ten earthquakes in the Korean peninsula and its vicinity are selected for the feasibility study. We observed that location results are not reliable when earthquakes occur outside of the seismic network. Earthquakes inside the seismic network, however, can be located very rapidly for the purpose of earthquake early warning. Seoul metropolitan area may secure 10 - 50 seconds of warning time before any strong shaking starts for certain events. Carefully orchestrated actions during the given warning time should be able to reduce hazard and mitigate damages due to potentially disastrous earthquakes.

  15. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Short-term scholars. 62.21 Section 62.21 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AND EXCHANGES EXCHANGE VISITOR PROGRAM Specific Program Provisions § 62.21 Short-term scholars. (a) Introduction. These regulations govern scholars...

  16. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  17. Double Dissociations in Visual and Spatial Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klauer, Karl Christoph; Zhao, Zengmei

    2004-01-01

    A visual short-term memory task was more strongly disrupted by visual than spatial interference, and a spatial memory task was simultaneously more strongly disrupted by spatial than visual interference. This double dissociation supports a fractionation of visuospatial short-term memory into separate visual and spatial components. In 6 experiments,…

  18. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  19. Short-Term Training--Where the Action Is!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, George R.

    In order to address major permanent changes in the economic structure and workforce of its community, Chemeketa Community College (CCC) in Oregon has made a commitment to initiate as many short-term training programs as its resources permit. Short-term training, which takes less time than regular one-year certificate or two-year associate degree…

  20. Short-Term Memory; An Annotated Bibliography. Supplement 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fisher, Dennis F.

    A compilation of 165 references dealing with short term memory, this bibliography supplements "Short-Term Memory: An Annotated Bibliography" (August 1968). The time period covered is predominantly June 1968 to June 1969. Such aspects and topics as psychometrics, motivation, human engineering, vision, auditory perception, verbal and nonverbal…

  1. Short-Term Memory: An Annotated Bibliography. Supplement II.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fisher, Dennis F.

    This bibliography is an annotated compilation of 198 references dealing with short-term memory. It is added as a second supplement to Short-Term Memory: An Annotated Bibliography, August, 1968. The time period covered is predominantly June, 1969 to December, 1970. References included are arranged alphabetically by author. An alphabetical index of…

  2. Short-Term Group Treatment for Adult Children of Alcoholics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Alvin; McCormack, WIlliam A.

    1992-01-01

    Adult children of alcoholics (n=24) were tested on measures of loneliness, anxiety, hostility, depression, and interpersonal dependency before and after participation in short-term group therapy. Highly significant test score changes supported effectiveness of individual therapy in short-term groups. (Author/NB)

  3. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  4. Automatic Earthquake Shear Stress Measurement Method Developed for Accurate Time- Prediction Analysis of Forthcoming Major Earthquakes Along Shallow Active Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serata, S.

    2006-12-01

    The Serata Stressmeter has been developed to measure and monitor earthquake shear stress build-up along shallow active faults. The development work made in the past 25 years has established the Stressmeter as an automatic stress measurement system to study timing of forthcoming major earthquakes in support of the current earthquake prediction studies based on statistical analysis of seismological observations. In early 1982, a series of major Man-made earthquakes (magnitude 4.5-5.0) suddenly occurred in an area over deep underground potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada. By measuring underground stress condition of the mine, the direct cause of the earthquake was disclosed. The cause was successfully eliminated by controlling the stress condition of the mine. The Japanese government was interested in this development and the Stressmeter was introduced to the Japanese government research program for earthquake stress studies. In Japan the Stressmeter was first utilized for direct measurement of the intrinsic lateral tectonic stress gradient G. The measurement, conducted at the Mt. Fuji Underground Research Center of the Japanese government, disclosed the constant natural gradients of maximum and minimum lateral stresses in an excellent agreement with the theoretical value, i.e., G = 0.25. All the conventional methods of overcoring, hydrofracturing and deformation, which were introduced to compete with the Serata method, failed demonstrating the fundamental difficulties of the conventional methods. The intrinsic lateral stress gradient determined by the Stressmeter for the Japanese government was found to be the same with all the other measurements made by the Stressmeter in Japan. The stress measurement results obtained by the major international stress measurement work in the Hot Dry Rock Projects conducted in USA, England and Germany are found to be in good agreement with the Stressmeter results obtained in Japan. Based on this broad agreement, a solid geomechanical

  5. Atmospheric Electrical Activity and the Prospects for Improving Short-Term, Weather Forcasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, Steven J.

    2003-01-01

    How might lightning measurements be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting? We examine this question under two different prediction strategies. These include integration of lightning data into short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective (including severe) weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.

  6. Earthquake mechanism and predictability shown by a laboratory fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, C.-Y.

    1994-01-01

    Slip events generated in a laboratory fault model consisting of a circulinear chain of eight spring-connected blocks of approximately equal weight elastically driven to slide on a frictional surface are studied. It is found that most of the input strain energy is released by a relatively few large events, which are approximately time predictable. A large event tends to roughen stress distribution along the fault, whereas the subsequent smaller events tend to smooth the stress distribution and prepare a condition of simultaneous criticality for the occurrence of the next large event. The frequency-size distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquakes, except for a falloff for the largest events due to the finite energy-storage capacity of the fault system. Slip distributions, in different events are commonly dissimilar. Stress drop, slip velocity, and rupture velocity all tend to increase with event size. Rupture-initiation locations are usually not close to the maximum-slip locations. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

  7. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  8. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Varnes, D.J.

    1989-01-01

    During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic

  9. Earthquake prediction in seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula based on computational intelligence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales-Esteban, A.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Reyes, J.

    2013-05-01

    A method to predict earthquakes in two of the seismogenic areas of the Iberian Peninsula, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), is presented in this paper. ANNs have been widely used in many fields but only very few and very recent studies have been conducted on earthquake prediction. Two kinds of predictions are provided in this study: a) the probability of an earthquake, of magnitude equal or larger than a preset threshold magnitude, within the next 7 days, to happen; b) the probability of an earthquake of a limited magnitude interval to happen, during the next 7 days. First, the physical fundamentals related to earthquake occurrence are explained. Second, the mathematical model underlying ANNs is explained and the configuration chosen is justified. Then, the ANNs have been trained in both areas: The Alborán Sea and the Western Azores-Gibraltar fault. Later, the ANNs have been tested in both areas for a period of time immediately subsequent to the training period. Statistical tests are provided showing meaningful results. Finally, ANNs were compared to other well known classifiers showing quantitatively and qualitatively better results. The authors expect that the results obtained will encourage researchers to conduct further research on this topic. Development of a system capable of predicting earthquakes for the next seven days Application of ANN is particularly reliable to earthquake prediction. Use of geophysical information modeling the soil behavior as ANN's input data Successful analysis of one region with large seismic activity

  10. The mind and brain of short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L; Nee, Derek Evan; Lustig, Cindy A; Berman, Marc G; Moore, Katherine Sledge

    2008-01-01

    The past 10 years have brought near-revolutionary changes in psychological theories about short-term memory, with similarly great advances in the neurosciences. Here, we critically examine the major psychological theories (the "mind") of short-term memory and how they relate to evidence about underlying brain mechanisms. We focus on three features that must be addressed by any satisfactory theory of short-term memory. First, we examine the evidence for the architecture of short-term memory, with special attention to questions of capacity and how--or whether--short-term memory can be separated from long-term memory. Second, we ask how the components of that architecture enact processes of encoding, maintenance, and retrieval. Third, we describe the debate over the reason about forgetting from short-term memory, whether interference or decay is the cause. We close with a conceptual model tracing the representation of a single item through a short-term memory task, describing the biological mechanisms that might support psychological processes on a moment-by-moment basis as an item is encoded, maintained over a delay with some forgetting, and ultimately retrieved.

  11. Short-term forgetting without interference.

    PubMed

    McKeown, Denis; Mercer, Tom

    2012-07-01

    In the 1st reported experiment, we demonstrate that auditory memory is robust over extended retention intervals (RIs) when listeners compare the timbre of complex tones, even when active or verbal rehearsal is difficult or impossible. Thus, our tones have an abstract timbre that resists verbal labeling, they differ across trials so that no "standard" comparison stimulus is built up, and the spectral change to be discriminated is very slight and therefore does not shift stimuli across verbal categories. Nonetheless, performance in this nonverbal immediate memory task was better at short (1-, 2-, or 4-s) than long (8-, 16-, or 32-s) RIs, an outcome predicted by temporal distinctiveness theory whereby at long RIs, tones are closer in time to tones on previous trials. We reject this account in the 2nd experiment, where we demonstrate that the ratio of RI to intertrial interval makes absolutely no difference to performance. We suggest that steady forgetting is consistent with a psychoacoustically derived conception of an auditory memory (the timbre memory model) that embodies time-based forgetting in the absence of feature-specific interference. PMID:22449135

  12. An information capacity limitation of visual short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Sewell, David K; Lilburn, Simon D; Smith, Philip L

    2014-12-01

    Research suggests that visual short-term memory (VSTM) has both an item capacity, of around 4 items, and an information capacity. We characterize the information capacity limits of VSTM using a task in which observers discriminated the orientation of a single probed item in displays consisting of 1, 2, 3, or 4 orthogonally oriented Gabor patch stimuli that were presented in noise for 50 ms, 100 ms, 150 ms, or 200 ms. The observed capacity limitations are well described by a sample-size model, which predicts invariance of ∑(i)(d'(i))² for displays of different sizes and linearity of (d'(i))² for displays of different durations. Performance was the same for simultaneous and sequentially presented displays, which implicates VSTM as the locus of the observed invariance and rules out explanations that ascribe it to divided attention or stimulus encoding. The invariance of ∑(i)(d'(i))² is predicted by the competitive interaction theory of Smith and Sewell (2013), which attributes it to the normalization of VSTM traces strengths arising from competition among stimuli entering VSTM.

  13. Earthquake prediction rumors can help in building earthquake awareness: the case of May the 11th 2011 in Rome (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Arcoraci, L.; Casarotti, E.; Cultrera, G.; Di Stefano, R.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; May-11 Team

    2012-04-01

    Banner headlines in an Italian newspaper read on May 11, 2011: "Absence boom in offices: the urban legend in Rome become psychosis". This was the effect of a large-magnitude earthquake prediction in Rome for May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew up in Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment and this increased the earthquake prediction credibility. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, INGV decided to organize on May 11 (the same day the earthquake was predicted to happen) an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome to inform on the Italian seismicity and the earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, attended by about 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national TV's, press agencies and web news magazines. Hundreds of articles appeared in the following two days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. On May 11 the INGV headquarter was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors from 9am to 9pm: families, students, civil protection groups and many journalists. The program included conferences on a wide variety of subjects (from social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction) and distribution of books and brochures, in addition to several activities: meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues, visits to the seismic monitoring room (open 24h/7 all year), guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure. During the same day, thirteen new videos have also been posted on our youtube/INGVterremoti channel to explain the earthquake process and hazard, and to provide real time periodic updates on seismicity in Italy. On May 11 no large earthquake happened in Italy. The initiative, built up in few weeks, had a very large feedback

  14. Frailty as a predictor of short-term adverse outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Tiago; Paúl, Constança; Gobbens, Robbert J.J.

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life. PMID:26246968

  15. Comparing predicted and observed ground motions from subduction earthquakes in the Lesser Antilles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, John; Mohais, Rosemarie

    2009-10-01

    This brief article presents a quantitative analysis of the ability of eight published empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for subduction earthquakes (interface and intraslab) to estimate observed earthquake ground motions on the islands of the Lesser Antilles (specifically Guadeloupe, Martinique, Trinidad, and Dominica). In total, over 300 records from 22 earthquakes from various seismic networks are used within the analysis. It is found that most of the GMPEs tested perform poorly, which is mainly due to a larger variability in the observed ground motions than predicted by the GMPEs, although two recent GMPEs derived using Japanese strong-motion data provide reasonably good predictions. Analyzing separately the interface and intraslab events does not significant modify the results. Therefore, it is concluded that seismic hazard assessments for this region should use a variety of GMPEs in order to capture this large epistemic uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion prediction for the Lesser Antilles.

  16. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.

  17. Imminent Suicide: The Illusion of Short-Term Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Robert I.

    2006-01-01

    The concept of imminent suicide is examined. A search of National Electronic Library for Mental Health, the Cochrane Library, PubMed, OVID and MD Consult databases was conducted using the terms "suicide, imminent." The term "imminent" frequently appears in the mental health literature, finding common usage among clinicians. It is also a legal term…

  18. Short-Term Study Abroad: Predicting Changes in Oral Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinsen, Rob A.

    2010-01-01

    Increasing numbers of students are opting for study abroad programs of 2 months or less while research on study abroad generally focuses on semester- or year-long programs. This study quantitatively examines changes in students' spoken Spanish after 6 weeks in Argentina using native speaker ratings of student speech. The researcher then uses…

  19. Predicting Short-Term Remembering as Boundedly Optimal Strategy Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howes, Andrew; Duggan, Geoffrey B.; Kalidindi, Kiran; Tseng, Yuan-Chi; Lewis, Richard L.

    2016-01-01

    It is known that, on average, people adapt their choice of memory strategy to the subjective utility of interaction. What is not known is whether an individual's choices are "boundedly optimal." Two experiments are reported that test the hypothesis that an individual's decisions about the distribution of remembering between internal and…

  20. Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

    PubMed

    Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. PMID:22753147

  1. Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

    PubMed

    Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management.

  2. Short-term and long-term within-person variability in performance: an integrative model.

    PubMed

    Minbashian, Amirali; Luppino, Daniella

    2014-09-01

    Previous research on within-person variability in performance has largely examined short-term fluctuations and long-term changes in performance separately. The present study proposes a model-based on the cognitive-affective personality system meta--theory (Mischel & Shoda, 1995)--that integrates short-term and long-term performance variability within the 1 framework. Key propositions of the model include that short-term performance fluctuations are contingent on variability in situational cues and that situational cue-performance contingencies change over time. To test the propositions, performance data for 393 professional male tennis players were analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling. The results showed that 2 types of situational cues--resource allocation cues and task complexity--interact in complex ways to account for short-term performance variability. Moreover, as predicted, the contingency of performance on the situational cues changed over time, highlighting the importance of an integrated approach to short-term and long-term performance variability. The implications of these findings are discussed for studies of performance at work and practical applications that managers can employ to increase work performance. Furthermore, parallels are drawn with previous studies from the broader literature on dynamic job performance. PMID:25019419

  3. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    PubMed

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory. PMID:26001735

  4. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  5. Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

    2013-01-01

    Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

  6. Short-Term Changes in Plans to Drink and Importance of Positive and Negative Alcohol Consequences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patrick, Megan E.; Maggs, Jennifer L.

    2008-01-01

    Experienced consequences predicted short-term changes in alcohol use plans and perceptions of the importance of alcohol-related consequences. Participants were 176 traditionally aged first-year university students who completed a 10-week telephone diary study (total weeks=1735). In multi-level models, men and students who experienced more positive…

  7. A Neurocognitive Model for Short-Term Sensory and Motor Preparatory Activity in Humans

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gomez, Carlos M.; Vaquero, Encarna; Vazquez-Marrufo, Manuel

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this review is to present information from different experiments that supports the proposal that brain systems are able to predict, in a short-term interval, certain characteristics about the next incoming stimuli. This ability allows the subject to be ready for the stimuli and be more efficient in completing the required task.…

  8. Short-term load forecasting using neural network for future smart grid application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zennamo, Joseph Anthony, III

    Short-term load forecasting of power system has been a classic problem for a long time. Not merely it has been researched extensively and intensively, but also a variety of forecasting methods has been raised. This thesis outlines some aspects and functions of smart meter. It also presents different policies and current statuses as well as future projects and objectives of SG development in several countries. Then the thesis compares main aspects about latest products of smart meter from different companies. Lastly, three types of prediction models are established in MATLAB to emulate the functions of smart grid in the short-term load forecasting, and then their results are compared and analyzed in terms of accuracy. For this thesis, more variables such as dew point temperature are used in the Neural Network model to achieve more accuracy for better short-term load forecasting results.

  9. Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, H. G.; Mukkamala, R.; Moody, G. B.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

  10. Encephalopathy and vestibulopathy following short-term hydrocarbon exposure.

    PubMed

    Hodgson, M J; Furman, J; Ryan, C; Durrant, J; Kern, E

    1989-01-01

    Dizziness, headaches, and weakness occurred among three men after short-term hydrocarbon exposure during improper welding procedures in a closed container. Symptoms were related to objective evidence of vestibular and cognitive dysfunction. Symptoms and abnormal test results persisted for 6 to 18 months. Simulation of the accident failed to demonstrate likely exposures except aliphatic hydrocarbons, well within the permissible exposure levels. Short-term exposures to neurotoxins may lead to long-term central nervous system abnormalities.

  11. Optimal fuzzy inference for short-term load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Mori, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Hidenori

    1996-02-01

    This paper proposes an optimal fuzzy inference method for short-term load forecasting. The proposed method constructs an optimal structure of the simplified fuzzy inference that minimizes model errors and the number of the membership functions to grasp nonlinear behavior of power system short-term loads. The model is identified by simulated annealing and the steepest descent method. The proposed method is demonstrated in examples.

  12. Optimal fuzzy inference for short-term load forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Mori, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Hidenori

    1995-12-31

    This paper proposes an optimal fuzzy inference method for short-term load forecasting. The proposed method constructs an optimal structure of the simplified fuzzy inference that minimizes model errors and the number of the membership functions to grasp nonlinear behavior of power system short-term loads. The model is identified by simulated annealing and the steepest descent method. The proposed method is demonstrated in examples.

  13. Encephalopathy and vestibulopathy following short-term hydrocarbon exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Hodgson, M.J.; Furman, J.; Ryan, C.; Durrant, J.; Kern, E.

    1989-01-01

    Dizziness, headaches, and weakness occurred among three men after short-term hydrocarbon exposure during improper welding procedures in a closed container. Symptoms were related to objective evidence of vestibular and cognitive dysfunction. Symptoms and abnormal test results persisted for 6 to 18 months. Simulation of the accident failed to demonstrate likely exposures except aliphatic hydrocarbons, well within the permissible exposure levels. Short-term exposures to neurotoxins may lead to long-term central nervous system abnormalities.

  14. Local short-term variability in solar irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.; Heinemann, Detlev

    2016-05-01

    Characterizing spatiotemporal irradiance variability is important for the successful grid integration of increasing numbers of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Using 1 Hz data recorded by as many as 99 pyranometers during the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE), we analyze field variability of clear-sky index k* (i.e., irradiance normalized to clear-sky conditions) and sub-minute k* increments (i.e., changes over specified intervals of time) for distances between tens of meters and about 10 km. By means of a simple classification scheme based on k* statistics, we identify overcast, clear, and mixed sky conditions, and demonstrate that the last of these is the most potentially problematic in terms of short-term PV power fluctuations. Under mixed conditions, the probability of relatively strong k* increments of ±0.5 is approximately twice as high compared to increment statistics computed without conditioning by sky type. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation structures of k* increment fields differ considerably between sky types. While the profiles for overcast and clear skies mostly resemble the predictions of a simple model published by , this is not the case for mixed conditions. As a proxy for the smoothing effects of distributed PV, we finally show that spatial averaging mitigates variability in k* less effectively than variability in k* increments, for a spatial sensor density of 2 km-2.

  15. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  16. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  17. Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Aki, K

    1996-01-01

    The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity. PMID:11607659

  18. Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles

    1998-01-01

    One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

  19. Scientific goals of the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, W.

    1988-01-01

    Several unique circumstances of the Parkfield experiment provide unprecedented opportunities for significant advances in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes. to our knowledge, there is no other seismic zone anywhere where the time, place, and magnitude of an impending earthquake are specified as precisely. Moreover, the epicentral region is located on continental crust, is readily accessible, and can support a range of dense monitoring networks that are sited either on or very close to the expected rupture surface. As a result, the networks located at Parkfield are several orders of magnitude more sensitive than any previously deployed for monitoring earthquake precursors (a preearthquake change in strain, seismicity, and other geophysical parameters). In this respect the design of the Parkfield experiment resembles the rationale for constructing a new, more powerful nuclear particle accelerator:in both cases increased capabilities will test existing theories, reveal new phenomena, and suggest new research directions. 

  20. Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Sammis, C G; Sornette, D

    2002-02-19

    We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities." The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress.

  1. Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Sammis, C. G.; Sornette, D.

    2002-01-01

    We review the “critical point” concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called “finite-time singularities.” The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress. PMID:11875202

  2. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year. PMID:26812351

  3. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    PubMed

    Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  4. The Parkfield earthquake prediction of October 1992; the emergency services response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Andrews, R.

    1992-01-01

    The science of earthquake prediction is interesting and worthy of support. In many respects the ultimate payoff of earthquake prediction or earthquake forecasting is how the information can be used to enhance public safety and public preparedness. This is a particularly important issue here in California where we have such a high level of seismic risk historically, and currently, as a consequence of activity in 1989 in the San Francisco Bay Area, in Humboldt County in April of this year (1992), and in southern California in the Landers-Big Bear area in late June of this year (1992). We are currently very concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake, one or more, happening close to one of our metropolitan areas. Within that context, the Parkfield experiment becomes very important. 

  5. The Komandor seismic gap: Earthquake prediction and tsunami computation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobkovsky, L. I.; Baranov, B. V.; Dozorova, K. A.; Mazova, R. Kh.; Kisel'man, B. A.; Baranova, N. A.

    2014-07-01

    The "seismic silence" period in the seismic gap in the region of the Komandor Islands (hereinafter, the Komandor seismic gap) is close to the duration of the maximal recurrence interval for the strongest earthquakes of the Aleutian Islands. This indicates the possibility of a strong earthquake occurring here in the nearest time. In the present work, the results of simulation for a tsunami from such an earthquake are presented. The scheme successfully used by the authors for the nearest analog—the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake—is applied. The magnitude of the supposed earthquake is assumed to be 9.0; the tsunamigenic source is about 650 km long and consists of 9 blocks. The parameters of the tsunami propagation in the Pacific Ocean and the characteristics of the waves on the coasts are computed for several possible scenarios of blocks' motion. The spectral analysis of the obtained wave characteristics is made and the effects of the wave front interference are found. Simulation has shown that the wave heights at some coastal sites can reach 9 m and, thus, may cause considerable destruction and deaths.

  6. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections. Second quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the first quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  7. Language repetition and short-term memory: an integrative framework

    PubMed Central

    Majerus, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the non-word-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury. PMID:23874280

  8. Short-term cardiac memory and mother rotor fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Baher, Ali; Qu, Zhilin; Hayatdavoudi, Ashkan; Lamp, Scott T; Yang, Ming-Jim; Xie, Fagen; Turner, Stephen; Garfinkel, Alan; Weiss, James N

    2007-01-01

    Short-term cardiac memory refers to the effects of pacing history on action potential duration (APD). Although the ionic mechanisms for short-term memory occurring over many heartbeats (also called APD accommodation) are poorly understood, they may have important effects on reentry and fibrillation. To explore this issue, we incorporated a generic memory current into the Phase I Luo and Rudy action potential model, which lacks short-term memory. The properties of this current were matched to simulate quantitatively human ventricular monophasic action potential accommodation. We show that, theoretically, short-term memory can resolve the paradox of how mother rotor fibrillation is initiated in heterogeneous tissue by physiological pacing. In simulated heterogeneous two-dimensional tissue and three-dimensional ventricles containing an inward rectifier K(+) current gradient, short-term memory could spontaneously convert multiple wavelet fibrillation to mother rotor fibrillation or to a mixture of both fibrillation types. This was due to progressive acceleration and stabilization of rotors as accumulation of memory shortened APD and flattened APD restitution slope nonuniformly throughout the tissue. PMID:16891403

  9. A short-term temperature forecaster based on a novel radial basis functions neural network.

    PubMed

    Lanza, P A; Cosme, J M

    2001-02-01

    Many applications dealing with electric load forecasting in buildings require temperature prediction. A new method for short-term temperature forecasting based on a Radial Basis Functions Neural Network, initialized by a Regression Tree, is presented. In this method, each terminal node of the tree contributes one hidden unit to the RBF network. The forecaster uses the current coded hour and the temperature as inputs, and predicts the next hour temperature. The results demonstrate this predictor can be used for load forecasting.

  10. The role of semantic knowledge in short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Forde, Emer M E; Humphreys, Glyn W

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we examine the role of stored semantic knowledge in recall from short-term memory. We assessed the performance of a patient (FK), who showed a consistent lack of semantic knowledge for some words ('unknown') but not others ('known') on a range of serial recall tasks using both spoken and written words. Overall, FK was significantly better at recalling lists of known compared with unknown words. His recall of unknown words was characterized by numerous phonological errors, such as repeating 'bear skunk' as 'bunk scare'. FK showed a relatively normal primacy effect in immediate recall, but a striking lack of a recency effect. This pattern of performance is useful for constraining theoretical accounts of language production and verbal short-term memory and for understanding the role that long-term semantic knowledge may play in maintaining information in short-term memory.

  11. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook.

  12. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  13. Verbal short-term memory and vocabulary learning in polyglots.

    PubMed

    Papagno, C; Vallar, G

    1995-02-01

    Polyglot and non-polyglot Italian subjects were given tests assessing verbal (phonological) and visuo-spatial short-term and long-term memory, general intelligence, and vocabulary knowledge in their native language. Polyglots had a superior level of performance in verbal short-term memory tasks (auditory digit span and nonword repetition) and in a paired-associate learning test, which assessed the subjects' ability to acquire new (Russian) words. By contrast, the two groups had comparable performance levels in tasks assessing general intelligence, visuo-spatial short-term memory and learning, and paired-associate learning of Italian words. These findings, which are in line with neuropsychological and developmental evidence, as well as with data from normal subjects, suggest a close relationship between the capacity of phonological memory and the acquisition of foreign languages. PMID:7754088

  14. Predictability of Great Earthquakes: The 25 April 2015 M7.9 Gorkha (Nepal)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding of seismic process in terms of non-linear dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults and deterministic chaos, has already led to reproducible intermediate-term middle-range prediction of the great and significant earthquakes. The technique based on monitoring charcteristics of seismic static in an area proportional to source size of incipient earthquake is confirmed at the confidence level above 99% by statistics of Global Testing in forward application from 1992 to the present. The semi-annual predictions determined for the next half-year by the algorithm M8 aimed (i) at magnitude 8+ earthquakes in 262 circles of investigation, CI's, each of 667-km radius and (ii) at magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes in 180 CI's, each of 427-km radius are communicated each January and July to the Global Test Observers (about 150 today). The pre-fixed location of CI's cover all seismic regions where the M8 algorithm could run in its original version that requires annual rate of activity of 16 or more main shocks. According to predictions released in January 2015 for the first half of 2015, the 25 April 2015 Nepal MwGCMT = 7.9 earthquake falls outside the Test area for M7.5+, while its epicenter is within the accuracy limits of the alarm area for M8.0+ that spread along 1300 km of Himalayas. We note that (i) the earthquake confirms identification of areas prone to strong earthquakes in Himalayas by pattern recognition (Bhatia et al. 1992) and (ii) it would have been predicted by the modified version of the M8 algorithm aimed at M7.5+. The modified version is adjusted to a low level of earthquake detection, about 10 main shocks per year, and is tested successfully by Mojarab et al. (2015) in application to the recent earthquakes in Eastern Anatolia (23 October 2011, M7.3 Van earthquake) and Iranian Plateau (16 April 2013, M7.7 Saravan and the 24 September 2013, M7.7 Awaran earthquakes).

  15. Short-term treatment of a Central American torture survivor.

    PubMed

    Munczek, D S

    1998-01-01

    The short-term treatment of a Honduran torture survivor is recounted. Torture--the "counter-therapy of the State" (Ritterman 1987, p. 43)--involves intentional physical and psychological destruction of human beings. The socio-political context in which the traumatic events occurred is described, as are the theoretical and ethical assumptions underlying the work. Treatment of victims of organized violence is a formidable challenge. Obstacles and advantages of short-term psychotherapy and use of the therapist's emotional reactions to understand survivors' experiences are emphasized.

  16. An Update on the Activities of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liukis, M.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Werner, M. J.; Jordan, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecast experiments. There are now CSEP testing centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Europe, and 364 models are under evaluation. In this presentation, we describe how the testing center hosted by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has evolved to meet CSEP objectives and share our experiences in operating the center. The SCEC testing center has been operational since September 1, 2007, and currently hosts 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the western Pacific, and a global testing region. We are currently working to reduce testing latency and to develop procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a Department of Homeland Security project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss how we apply CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and the evaluation of ShakeAlert system for earthquake early warning (EEW), and how CSEP procedures are being adopted for intensity prediction and ground motion prediction experiments. cseptesting.org

  17. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... shall satisfy the definition of a short-term scholar as set forth in § 62.4. (e) Cross-cultural... shall be exempted from the requirements of providing cross-cultural activities and orientation as set... listed on the Form DS-2019 if his or her Responsible Officer issues a written authorization of...

  18. End Anchoring in Short-Term Order Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farrell, Simon; Lelievre, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Temporally grouping lists has systematic effects on immediate serial recall accuracy, order errors, and recall latencies, and is generally taken to reflect the use of multiple dimensions of ordering in short-term memory. It has been argued that these representations are fully relative, in that all sequence positions are anchored to both the start…

  19. A Short Term Real Time Study in Syntactic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duarte, Maria Eugenia Lamoglia

    Recent research has shown that Brazilian Portuguese is undergoing a change regarding the null subject parameter, evolving from a null subject to a non-null subject language. This paper presents the results of a short term, real time study of speakers of Brazilian Portuguese with low and mid levels of formal education. The study was based on…

  20. The Challenge of Short-Term Service-Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tryon, Elizabeth; Stoecker, Randy; Martin, Amy; Seblonka, Kristy; Hilgendorf, Amy; Nellis, Margaret

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the results of interviews with staff from 64 community organizations regarding their experiences with service-learners. One of the themes that emerged from the interviews focused on concerns related to short-term service-learning commitments that last a semester or less. We explore the challenges presented to community groups…

  1. CONTROLLED, SHORT-TERM DERMAL AND INHALATION EXPOSURE TO CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies were conducted to determine the uptake by humans of chloroform as a result of controlled short-term dermal and inhalation exposures. The approach used continuous real-time breath analysis to determine exhaled-breath profiles and evaluate chloroform kinetics in the huma...

  2. A DAPHNIA MAGNA SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL AND GROWTH TEST

    EPA Science Inventory

    With the change in acceptable test temperatures for invertebrate toxicity tests from <20oC to 25oC, it is now possible to use Daphnia magna for short-term chronic testing. When cultured at 25oC the dry weight of <24 hr old D. magna ranges from 7 to 15 g depending upon nutrition,...

  3. SHORT-TERM MEMORY IS INDEPENDENT OF BRAIN PROTEIN SYNTHESIS

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, Hasker P.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Jones, Oliver W.

    1980-09-01

    Male Swiss albino CD-1 mice given a single injection of a cerebral protein synthesis inhibitor, anisomycin (ANI) (1 mg/animal), 20 min prior to single trial passive avoidance training demonstrated impaired retention at tests given 3 hr, 6 hr, 1 day, and 7 days after training. Retention was not significantly different from saline controls when tests were given 0.5 or 1.5 hr after training. Prolonging inhibition of brain protein synthesis by giving either 1 or 2 additional injections of ANI 2 or 2 and 4 hr after training did not prolong short-term retention performance. The temporal development of impaired retention in ANI treated mice could not be accounted for by drug dosage, duration of protein synthesis inhibition, or nonspecific sickness at test. In contrast to the suggestion that protein synthesis inhibition prolongs short-term memory (Quinton, 1978), the results of this experiment indicate that short-term memory is not prolonged by antibiotic drugs that inhibit cerebral protein synthesis. All evidence seems consistent with the hypothesis that short-term memory is protein synthesis independent and that the establishment of long-term memory depends upon protein synthesis during or shortly after training. Evidence for a role of protein synthesis in memory maintenance is discussed.

  4. Exogenous Attention Influences Visual Short-Term Memory in Infants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross-Sheehy, Shannon; Oakes, Lisa M.; Luck, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    Two experiments examined the hypothesis that developing visual attentional mechanisms influence infants' Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) in the context of multiple items. Five- and 10-month-old infants (N = 76) received a change detection task in which arrays of three differently colored squares appeared and disappeared. On each trial one square…

  5. Decay uncovered in nonverbal short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Mercer, Tom; McKeown, Denis

    2014-02-01

    Decay theory posits that memory traces gradually fade away over the passage of time unless they are actively rehearsed. Much recent work exploring verbal short-term memory has challenged this theory, but there does appear to be evidence for trace decay in nonverbal auditory short-term memory. Numerous discrimination studies have reported a performance decline as the interval separating two tones is increased, consistent with a decay process. However, most of this tone comparison research can be explained in other ways, without reference to decay, and these alternative accounts were tested in the present study. In Experiment 1, signals were employed toward the end of extended retention intervals to ensure that listeners were alert to the presence and frequency content of the memoranda. In Experiment 2, a mask stimulus was employed in an attempt to distinguish between a highly detailed sensory trace and a longer-lasting short-term memory, and the distinctiveness of the stimuli was varied. Despite these precautions, slow-acting trace decay was observed. It therefore appears that the mere passage of time can lead to forgetting in some forms of short-term memory. PMID:23801385

  6. Validation of a Fish Short-term Reproduction Assay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Fish Short-term Reproduction Assay is an in vivo assay conducted with fathead minnows and is designed to detect changes in spawning, gross morphology, histopathology, and specific biochemical endpoints that reflect disturbances in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis...

  7. 47 CFR 74.24 - Short-term operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... the transmission of the call sign of the associated part 73 broadcast station or broadcast auxiliary... base station, a remote pickup automatic relay station, an aural broadcast STL station, an aural... to commencing short-term operation of a remote pickup broadcast station, a remote pickup...

  8. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  9. Short Term Skill Training. Alternative Approaches. Information Series No. 222.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paulsen, Russell

    Short term skill training programs are those programs, usually one year or less, designed to train, retrain, or upgrade the skills of workers. Such programs provide an opportunity for postsecondary vocational institutions to respond to the human resource needs of their communities. A number of important policy issues are involved in the provision…

  10. Short-Term Memory Effects in Four Learning Modes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Furukawa, James M.; And Others

    The effect of three levels of short-term memory (STM) and four learning modes (control, chunking organizational strategy, programmed instruction, and adjunct questions) on prose learning and recall was studied. The participants in this study were educational psychology students at Towson State College in Maryland. Significant STM and learning mode…

  11. Valuing Short-Term Study Abroad in Business

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loh, Chung-Ping A.; Steagall, Jeffrey W.; Gallo, Andres; Michelman, Jeffrey E.

    2011-01-01

    Short-term study abroad courses often claim to provide a unique experience for students, but it is not clear how the value translates into a dollar amount. The paper uses the contingent valuation method to assess participating students' pre- and post-trip perceived dollar value of their study abroad courses at an AACSB accredited business school.…

  12. Visual Short-Term Memory During Smooth Pursuit Eye Movements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerzel, Dirk; Ziegler, Nathalie E.

    2005-01-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) was probed while observers performed smooth pursuit eye movements. Smooth pursuit keeps a moving object stabilized in the fovea. VSTM capacity for position was reduced during smooth pursuit compared with a condition with eye fixation. There was no difference between a condition in which the items were approximately…

  13. Retention interval affects visual short-term memory encoding.

    PubMed

    Bankó, Eva M; Vidnyánszky, Zoltán

    2010-03-01

    Humans can efficiently store fine-detailed facial emotional information in visual short-term memory for several seconds. However, an unresolved question is whether the same neural mechanisms underlie high-fidelity short-term memory for emotional expressions at different retention intervals. Here we show that retention interval affects the neural processes of short-term memory encoding using a delayed facial emotion discrimination task. The early sensory P100 component of the event-related potentials (ERP) was larger in the 1-s interstimulus interval (ISI) condition than in the 6-s ISI condition, whereas the face-specific N170 component was larger in the longer ISI condition. Furthermore, the memory-related late P3b component of the ERP responses was also modulated by retention interval: it was reduced in the 1-s ISI as compared with the 6-s condition. The present findings cannot be explained based on differences in sensory processing demands or overall task difficulty because there was no difference in the stimulus information and subjects' performance between the two different ISI conditions. These results reveal that encoding processes underlying high-precision short-term memory for facial emotional expressions are modulated depending on whether information has to be stored for one or for several seconds.

  14. Short-term energy outlook, Quarterly projections. Third quarter 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1993-08-04

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

  15. Short-Term Effects of Playing Computer Games on Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tahiroglu, Aysegul Yolga; Celik, Gonca Gul; Avci, Ayse; Seydaoglu, Gulsah; Uzel, Mehtap; Altunbas, Handan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term cognitive effects of computer games in children with different psychiatric disorders and normal controls. Method: One hundred one children are recruited for the study (aged between 9 and 12 years). All participants played a motor-racing game on the computer for 1 hour.…

  16. A Test of Tactile Concentration and Short-Term Memory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kainthola, S. D.; Singh, T. B.

    1992-01-01

    Twenty students and 45 adults with visual impairments or blindness were administered a test of tactile concentration and short-term memory involving the reproduction of the order of finger stimulation using the Finger Knocking Box. Reliability and validity scores indicated encouraging results with use of the instrument. (JDD)

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  18. Assurance of Learning in Short-Term, Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, Mary L.; Gullekson, Nicole L.; McCambridge, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Business students are increasingly seeking international experience in short-term, study abroad programs to enhance their intercultural knowledge, intercultural communication skills, and global perspectives to be more competitive in the global arena. Intuitively, universities initiating these programs and the students sojourning abroad believe in…

  19. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, second quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The forecasts in this issue cover the second quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Changes to macroeconomic measures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis have been incorporated into the STIFS model used.

  20. Climax spent fuel dosimetry. Short term exposure, 8 March 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Quam, W.; DeVore, T.

    1984-06-01

    The second short-term exposure (performed 8 March 1983) in Hole CFH3 at the Climax Spent Fuel Test site is described. These short-term (1 hour long) exposures are intended to provide an independent measurement of the exposure rate at the wall and the 0.51-m and 0.66-m locations. Only CaF{sub 2} TLD`s were used in the second short-term exposure. Harshaw chips were cut to 0.32 x 0.18 x 0.09 cm size and aged by several exposure/readout/bakeout cycles until all odd chips were weeded out and the remaining chips exhibited stable sensitivities. Exposure at Climax was done by removing the existing long-term dosimetry strings and inserting identical strings using the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s in the stainless steel holders. The first short-term exposure produced absorbed doses as high as {similar_to}000 rads-LiF. The linearity corrections determined for the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s at these exposure levels were {similar_to}2%. The present post-exposure calibration method used calibration doses very close to those encountered in the field.

  1. Short-term storage of Atlantic sturgeon spermatozoa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is significant interest to restore the Atlantic sturgeon, a species of concern. Biologists are interested in both the short-term storage and cryopreservation of semen to maximize availability of viable spermatozoa whenever a rare ripe female is found and available for spawning. We conducted sh...

  2. Short-Term Therapy: A Shift in Thinking.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fuhriman, Addie

    1992-01-01

    Responds to previous article by Steenbarger on science-practice integration in brief counseling and therapy. Considers three dimensions that emerge from the integrated analysis presented in Steenbarger's article: catalysis, involvement, and time. Discusses each of these three characteristics as they are related specifically to a short-term format.…

  3. Can an earthquake prediction and warning system be developed?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    N.N, Ambraseys

    1990-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, natural disasters have killed nearly 3 million people and disrupted the lives of over 800 million others. In 2 years there were more than 50 serious natural disasters, including landslides in Italy, France, and Colombia; a typhoon in Korea; wildfires in China and the United States; a windstorm in England; grasshopper plagues in Africa's horn and the Sahel; tornadoes in Canada; devastating earthquakes in Soviet Armenia and Tadzhikstand; infestations in Africa; landslides in Brazil; and tornadoes in the United States 

  4. Recent Developments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecast experiments. There are now CSEP testing centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Europe, with 430 models under evaluation. In this presentation, we describe how the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) testing center has evolved to meet CSEP objectives and we share our experiences in operating the center. The SCEC testing center has been operational since September 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and a global testing region. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts and currently develop procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a Department of Homeland Security project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. Retrospective experiment for the 2010 Darfield earthquake sequence formed an important addition to the CSEP activities where the predictive skills of physics-based and statistical forecasting models are compared. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and the evaluation of ShakeAlert system for earthquake early warning (EEW), and how CSEP procedures are being adopted for intensity prediction and ground motion prediction experiments.

  5. Multiscale approach to the predictability of earthquakes and of synthetic SOC sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.

    2003-04-01

    The power-law scaling expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law is the main argument in favour of the Self-Organised Criticality (SOC) of seismic phenomena. Nevertheless the limits of validity of the GR law and the phenomenology reproduced by the SOC models, as well as their consequences for earthquake predictability, still remain quite undefined. According to the Multiscale Seismicity (MS) model, the GR law describes adequately only the ensemble of earthquakes that are geometrically small with respect to the dimensions of the analysed region. The MS model and its implications for intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions are thus examined, considering both the seismicity observed in the Italian territory and the synthetic sequences of events generated by a SOC model. The predictability of the large events is evaluated by means of the algorithms CN and M8, based on a quantitative analysis of the seismic flow within a delimited region, which allow for the prediction of the earthquakes with magnitude greater than a fixed threshold Mo. Considering the application of CN and M8 to the Italian territory, we show that, in agreement with the MS model, these algorithms make use of the information carried by small and moderate earthquakes, following the GR law, to predict the strong earthquakes, which are infrequent and often arbitrarily considered characteristic events inside the regions delimited for prediction purposes. Similarly, the application of the algorithm CN for the prediction of the largest events in the synthetic SOC sequences, indicates that a certain predictability can be attained, when the MS model is taken into account. These results suggest that the similarity between the seismic flow and the SOC sequences goes beyond the average features of scale-invariance. In fact, while the GR law describes an average feature of seismicity, CN algorithm is checking for the deviations from such trend, which may characterise the sequence of events before the

  6. The Application of the Pso Based BP Network in Short-Term Load Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhaoyu, Pian; Shengzhu, Li; Hong, Zhang; Nan, Zhang

    The load forecast level in power system is a important symbol to measure operations and management of power system. This paper summarized the research conditions of the short-term load forecasting using artificial neural network method, and analyzed the characteristics of electrical load and factors of influencing power load forecasting accuracy. The paper used the particle swarm optimization neural network method in short-term load forecasting of power grid. Based on the analysis history loads in California power system, we established the load forecasting model considering the various affecting factors, and normalized the input load, meanwhile quantified date, atmosphere and other factors. The example showed that the model of neural network based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm can improve the prediction precision and speed, it's performance prediction is superior to the model based on BP neural network load forecasting.

  7. Evaluation of the Emu-pim-1 transgenic mouse model for short-term carcinogenicity testing.

    PubMed

    van Kreijl, C F; van der Houven van Oordt, C W; Kroese, E D; Sørensen, I K; Breuer, M L; Storer, R D

    1998-01-01

    The value of the chronic rodent carcinogenicity assay in adequately predicting cancer risk in humans has become a matter of debate over the past few years. Therefore, more rapid and accurate alternative tests are urgently needed. Transgenic mouse models, those harboring genetic changes that are relevant to the multistage cancer process, may provide such alternative tests. Transgenic Emu-pim-1 mice, developed by Berns and coworkers in 1989, contain the pimn-1 oncogene, which is expressed at elevated levels in their lymphoid compartments. As a result, these mice are predisposed to the development of T-cell lymphomas. Because of the low incidence of spontaneous tumors and the increased sensitivity to N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-induced carcinogenesis, Emu-pim-1 mice were suggested to be one of the first potential and attractive candidates to be used in short-term carcinogenicity testing. In the present article, the results from 2 recent short-term assays (with mitomycin C and x-rays) are briefly presented, together with a review of all 11 performed bioassays and their corresponding histopathologic and molecular data. The overall results allow the first evaluation of the Emu-pim-1 mouse model with regard to its usefulness in short-term carcinogenicity testing. It has been shown that the model is primarily suitable as a sensitive short-term assay for genotoxic carcinogens that not only induce (at least) gene mutations and/or large deletions and rearrangements but that also sufficiently target the lymphoid system. However, the Emu-pim-1 mice lack sufficient sensitivity to justify their routine use in short-term carcinogenicity testing in general.

  8. Strong ground motion prediction for southwestern China from small earthquake records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Z. R.; Tao, X. X.; Cui, A. P.

    2015-09-01

    For regions lack of strong ground motion records, a method is developed to predict strong ground motion by small earthquake records from local broadband digital earthquake networks. Sichuan and Yunnan regions, located in southwestern China, are selected as the targets. Five regional source and crustal medium parameters are inversed by micro-Genetic Algorithm. These parameters are adopted to predict strong ground motion for moment magnitude (Mw) 5.0, 6.0 and 7.0. Strong ground motion data are compared with the results, most of the result pass through ideally the data point plexus, except the case of Mw 7.0 in Sichuan region, which shows an obvious slow attenuation. For further application, this result is adopted in probability seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and near-field strong ground motion synthesis of the Wenchuan Earthquake.

  9. How to predict Italy L'Aquila M6.3 earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Guangmeng

    2016-04-01

    According to the satellite cloud anomaly appeared over eastern Italy on 21-23 April 2012, we predicted the M6.0 quake occurred in north Italy successfully. Here checked the satellite images in 2011-2013 in Italy, and 21 cloud anomalies were found. Their possible correlation with earthquakes bigger than M4.7 which located in Italy main fault systems was statistically examined by assuming various lead times. The result shows that when the leading time interval is set to 23≤ΔT≤45 days, 8 of the 10 quakes were preceded by cloud anomalies. Poisson random test shows that AAR (anomaly appearance rate) and EOR (EQ occurrence rate) is much higher than the values by chance. This study proved the relation between cloud anomaly and earthquake in Italy. With this method, we found that L'Aquila earthquake can also be predicted according to cloud anomaly.

  10. Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Blair, J.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  11. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  12. Time-predictable model applicability for earthquake occurrence in northeast India and vicinity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panthi, A.; Shanker, D.; Singh, H. N.; Kumar, A.; Paudyal, H.

    2011-03-01

    Northeast India and its vicinity is one of the seismically most active regions in the world, where a few large and several moderate earthquakes have occurred in the past. In this study the region of northeast India has been considered for an earthquake generation model using earthquake data as reported by earthquake catalogues National Geophysical Data Centre, National Earthquake Information Centre, United States Geological Survey and from book prepared by Gupta et al. (1986) for the period 1906-2008. The events having a surface wave magnitude of Ms≥5.5 were considered for statistical analysis. In this region, nineteen seismogenic sources were identified by the observation of clustering of earthquakes. It is observed that the time interval between the two consecutive mainshocks depends upon the preceding mainshock magnitude (Mp) and not on the following mainshock (Mf). This result corroborates the validity of time-predictable model in northeast India and its adjoining regions. A linear relation between the logarithm of repeat time (T) of two consecutive events and the magnitude of the preceding mainshock is established in the form LogT = cMp+a, where "c" is a positive slope of line and "a" is function of minimum magnitude of the earthquake considered. The values of the parameters "c" and "a" are estimated to be 0.21 and 0.35 in northeast India and its adjoining regions. The less value of c than the average implies that the earthquake occurrence in this region is different from those of plate boundaries. The result derived can be used for long term seismic hazard estimation in the delineated seismogenic regions.

  13. Prognostic Value of Stress Echocardiography in Patients With Low-Intermediate or High Short-Term (10 Years) Versus Low (<39%) or High (≥39%) Lifetime Predicted Risk of Cardiovascular Disease According to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 Cardiovascular Risk Calculator.

    PubMed

    Yao, Siu-Sun; Supariwala, Azhar; Yao, Amanda; Dukkipati, Sai Sreenija; Wyne, Jamshad; Chaudhry, Farooq A

    2015-09-01

    This study evaluates the prognostic value of stress echocardiography (Secho) in short-term (10 years) and lifetime atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk-defined groups according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 cardiovascular risk calculator. The ideal risk assessment and management of patients with low-to-intermediate or high short-term versus low (<39%) or high (≥39%) lifetime CV risk is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Secho in short-term and lifetime CV risk-defined groups. We evaluated 4,566 patients (60 ± 13 years; 46% men) who underwent Secho (41% treadmill and 59% dobutamine) with low-intermediate short-term (<20%) risk divided into low (<39%, n = 368) or high (≥39%, n = 661) lifetime CV risk and third group with high short-term risk (≥20%, n = 3,537). Follow-up (3.2 ± 1.5 years) for nonfatal myocardial infarction (n = 102) and cardiac death (n = 140) were obtained. By univariate analysis, age (p <0.001) and ≥3 new ischemic wall motion abnormalities (WMAs, p <0.001) were significant predictors of cardiac events. Cumulative survival in patients was significantly worse in patients with ≥3 WMA versus <3 WMA in low-intermediate short-term and low (3.3% vs 0.3% per year, p <0.001) or high (2.0% vs 0% per year, p <0.001) lifetime risk and also in those with high short-term CV risk group (3.5% vs 1.0% per year, p <0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified ≥3 new ischemic WMAs as the strongest predictor of cardiac events (hazard ratio 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.3 to 3.9, p <0.001). In conclusion, Secho results (absence or presence of ≥3 new ischemic segments) can further refine risk assessment in patients with low-intermediate or high short-term versus low or high lifetime cardiovascular risk. Event rate with normal Secho is low (≤1% per year) but higher in patients with high short-term CV risk by the American College of

  14. New vertical geodesy. [VLBI measurements for earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitcomb, J. H.

    1976-01-01

    The paper contains a review of the theoretical difference between orthometric heights and heights labeled geometric which are determined through use of an extraterrestrial frame of reference. The theory is supplemented with examples which portray very long baseline interferometry as a measuring system that will provide estimates of vertical crustal motion which are radically improved in comparison with those obtained from analysis of repeated geodetic levelings. The example of the San Fernando earthquake of 1971 is used to show how much estimates of orthometric and geometric height change might differ. A comment by another author is appended which takes issue with some of the conclusions of this paper. In particular, an attempt is made in the comment to rebut the conclusion that geodetic leveling is less reliable than VLBI measurements for determining relative elevation change of points separated by more than 56 km.

  15. Ground Motion Prediction of Subduction Earthquakes using the Onshore-Offshore Ambient Seismic Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viens, L.; Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.

    2014-12-01

    Seismic waves produced by earthquakes already caused plenty of damages all around the world and are still a real threat to human beings. To reduce seismic risk associated with future earthquakes, accurate ground motion predictions are required, especially for cities located atop sedimentary basins that can trap and amplify these seismic waves. We focus this study on long-period ground motions produced by subduction earthquakes in Japan which have the potential to damage large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings, bridges, and oil storage tanks. We extracted the impulse response functions from the ambient seismic field recorded by two stations using one as a virtual source, without any preprocessing. This method allows to recover the reliable phases and relative, rather than absolute, amplitudes. To retrieve corresponding Green's functions, the impulse response amplitudes need to be calibrated using observational records of an earthquake which happened close to the virtual source. We show that Green's functions can be extracted between offshore submarine cable-based sea-bottom seismographic observation systems deployed by JMA located atop subduction zones and on-land NIED/Hi-net stations. In contrast with physics-based simulations, this approach has the great advantage to predict ground motions of moderate earthquakes (Mw ~5) at long-periods in highly populated sedimentary basin without the need of any external information about the velocity structure.

  16. Earthquake prediction in the Soviet Union; an interview with I. L. Nersesov

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1980-01-01

    Dr. I. L. Nersesov is a seismologist with the Institute of Physics of the Earth, Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R., Moscow. He is one of the leaders in the Soviet national program of earthquake prediction

  17. Terrestrial short-term ecotoxicity of a green formicide.

    PubMed

    Tiepo, Erasmo N; Corrêa, Albertina X R; Resgalla, Charrid; Cotelle, Sylvie; Férard, Jean-François; Radetski, Claudemir M

    2010-07-01

    When ants become annoying, large quantities of formicide are applied to terrestrial ecosystems in tropical regions, but awareness of the health and environmental impacts related to the use of synthetic pesticides has been increasing. The use of green pesticides to combat target organisms could reduce these impacts. In this regard, terrestrial ecotoxicity tests with higher plants (Brassica olaracea, Lactuca sativa and Mucuna aterrima), annelids (Eisenia foetida), Collembola (Folsomia candida) and soil enzyme activity analysis (diacetate fluorescein hydrolysis) were used to evaluate short-term terrestrial ecotoxicity of a green pesticide prepared from naturally-occurring organic compounds. At the highest formicide concentration tested in these experiments (i.e., 50 g kg(-1) soil) no toxicity toward terrestrial organisms was observed. The lack of short-term terrestrial ecotoxicity suggest that this green formicide can be classed as an environmentally friendly product as compared to the ecotoxicity of the most commonly used commercialized formicides.

  18. SHORT-TERM N215-INCORPORATION BY AZOTOBACTER1

    PubMed Central

    Bulen, W. A.; LeComte, J. R.; Bales, H. E.

    1963-01-01

    Bulen, W. A. (Charles F. Kettering Research Laboratory, Yellow Springs, Ohio), J. R. LeComte, and H. E. Bales. Short-term N215-incorporation by Azotobacter. J. Bacteriol. 85:666–670. 1963.—Short-term N215-incorporation measurements were used to determine which of the growth requirements were necessary for nitrogen fixation by Azotobacter agilis (A. vinelandii). Normal cells required neither added iron nor molybdenum, but a marked stimulation by Na+ and a minor stimulation by Mg2+ were observed. The Na+ stimulation was not accompanied by an increase in O2 uptake. A lag period preceded the response of molybdenum-deficient cells to added Mo. In systems employing 10 and 20% O2 with 10% N215 in the gas phase, O2 appeared to be both required and inhibitory. These observations may be helpful in attempts to fractionate cell-free nitrogen-fixing systems from this aerobe. PMID:14042947

  19. Short-term load forecasting using an artificial neural network

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, K.Y.; Cha, Y.T. ); Park, J.H. )

    1992-02-01

    Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Method is applied to forecast the short-term load for a large power system. The load has two distinct patterns: weekday and weekend-day patterns. The weekend-day pattern include Saturday, Sunday, and Monday loads. In this paper a nonlinear load model is proposed and several structures of ANN for short-term load forecasting are tested. Inputs to the ANN are past loads and the output of the ANN is the load forecast for a given day. The network with one or two hidden layers are tested with various combination of neurons, and results are compared in terms of forecasting error. The neural network, when grouped into different load patterns, gives good load forecast.

  20. Short-term synaptic plasticity and heterogeneity in neural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mejias, J. F.; Kappen, H. J.; Longtin, A.; Torres, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent results on neural dynamics and information processing which arise when considering several biophysical factors of interest, in particular, short-term synaptic plasticity and neural heterogeneity. The inclusion of short-term synaptic plasticity leads to enhanced long-term memory capacities, a higher robustness of memory to noise, and irregularity in the duration of the so-called up cortical states. On the other hand, considering some level of neural heterogeneity in neuron models allows neural systems to optimize information transmission in rate coding and temporal coding, two strategies commonly used by neurons to codify information in many brain areas. In all these studies, analytical approximations can be made to explain the underlying dynamics of these neural systems.

  1. Vasopressin analogues and spatial short-term memory in rats.

    PubMed

    Buresová, O; Skopková, J

    1980-01-01

    The effect of vasopressin analogues on short-term memory was tested in the 12-arm radical maze. After the first 6 choices rat (n = 16) were removed from the apparatus and allowed to complete the remaining 6 choices 20 min later. Whereas desgly-NH2-VP, AVP, dAVP and dDAVP (3.0 mu/kg) administered 40 min before or immediately after the first 6 choices did not change the incidence of errors in the second series of choices (2.0 errors under control conditions), similarly applied dDAVP deteriorated the rat's performance almost to the chance level of 3 errors. The significance of short-term memory tests for assessing the mnestic role of peptide hormones is stressed.

  2. Short-term case mix management with linear programming.

    PubMed

    Hughes, W L; Soliman, S Y

    1985-01-01

    One short-term economic incentive created by a prospective payment system based on diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) is for hospital managers to optimally and efficiently use the hospital's current mix of services to maximize net contribution. DRGs provide a managerial definition of the hospital's product by determining the number of patients discharged within each of the 467 groupings. Thus, the DRG case mix can be thought of as the hospital's product mix. As in major industry, linear programming models may prove useful in determining the hospital's financially optimal case mix. This article provides a framework for applying the linear programming concept to case mix planning in the hospital setting. It also presents an illustration and interpretation of a linear programming model that provides information about the short-term optimal case mix.

  3. Short-term hydroelectric generation model. Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models.

  4. An ethics curriculum for short-term global health trainees

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Interest in short-term global health training and service programs continues to grow, yet they can be associated with a variety of ethical issues for which trainees or others with limited global health experience may not be prepared to address. Therefore, there is a clear need for educational interventions concerning these ethical issues. Methods We developed and evaluated an introductory curriculum, “Ethical Challenges in Short-term Global Health Training.” The curriculum was developed through solicitation of actual ethical issues experienced by trainees and program leaders; content drafting; and external content review. It was then evaluated from November 1, 2011, through July 1, 2012, by analyzing web usage data and by conducting user surveys. The survey included basic demographic data; prior experience in global health and global health ethics; and assessment of cases within the curriculum. Results The ten case curriculum is freely available at http://ethicsandglobalhealth.org. An average of 238 unique visitors accessed the site each month (standard deviation, 19). Of users who had been abroad before for global health training or service, only 31% reported prior ethics training related to short-term work. Most users (62%) reported accessing the site via personal referral or their training program; however, a significant number (28%) reported finding the site via web search, and 8% discovered it via web links. Users represented different fields: medicine (46%), public health (15%), and nursing (11%) were most common. All cases in the curriculum were evaluated favorably. Conclusions The curriculum is meeting a critical need for an introduction to the ethical issues in short-term global health training. Future work will integrate this curriculum within more comprehensive curricula for global health and evaluate specific knowledge and behavioral effects, including at training sites abroad. PMID:23410089

  5. Short term UV line profile variation in 59 Cyg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grady, C. A.; Doazan, V.; Peters, G. J.; Willis, A.; Snow, T. P.; Aitken, D.; Barker, P. K.; Bolton, C. T.; Henrichs, H.; Kitchen, C. R.

    1982-01-01

    The International ultraviolet Explorer high dispersion spectra of 59 Cyg obtained as part of the long term monitoring program have shown that noticeable variation can occur in C 5 and N 5 on timescales 3 hours t24 to 28 hours. In order to begin to resolve whether these changes occur continuously or sporadically, 48 hours were devoted to monitoring this star in January 1982. The January spectra show no short term variation, which may be consistent with sporadic rather than continuous variation.

  6. Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S.

    1999-08-01

    This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

  7. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    PubMed

    Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  8. Cardioprotective Signature of Short-Term Caloric Restriction

    PubMed Central

    Isserlin, Ruth; Arab, Sara; Momen, Abdul; Cheng, Henry S.; Wu, Jun; Afroze, Talat; Li, Ren-Ke; Fish, Jason E.; Bader, Gary D.; Husain, Mansoor

    2015-01-01

    Objective To understand the molecular pathways underlying the cardiac preconditioning effect of short-term caloric restriction (CR). Background Lifelong CR has been suggested to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease through a variety of mechanisms. However, prolonged adherence to a CR life-style is difficult. Here we reveal the pathways that are modulated by short-term CR, which are associated with protection of the mouse heart from ischemia. Methods Male 10-12 wk old C57bl/6 mice were randomly assigned to an ad libitum (AL) diet with free access to regular chow, or CR, receiving 30% less food for 7 days (d), prior to myocardial infarction (MI) via permanent coronary ligation. At d8, the left ventricles (LV) of AL and CR mice were collected for Western blot, mRNA and microRNA (miR) analyses to identify cardioprotective gene expression signatures. In separate groups, infarct size, cardiac hemodynamics and protein abundance of caspase 3 was measured at d2 post-MI. Results This short-term model of CR was associated with cardio-protection, as evidenced by decreased infarct size (18.5±2.4% vs. 26.6±1.7%, N=10/group; P=0.01). mRNA and miR profiles pre-MI (N=5/group) identified genes modulated by short-term CR to be associated with circadian clock, oxidative stress, immune function, apoptosis, metabolism, angiogenesis, cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM). Western blots pre-MI revealed CR-associated increases in phosphorylated Akt and GSK3ß, reduced levels of phosphorylated AMPK and mitochondrial related proteins PGC-1α, cytochrome C and cyclooxygenase (COX) IV, with no differences in the levels of phosphorylated eNOS or MAPK (ERK1/2; p38). CR regimen was also associated with reduced protein abundance of cleaved caspase 3 in the infarcted heart and improved cardiac function. PMID:26098549

  9. Short-term Ensemble Flood Forecasting Experiments in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collischonn, Walter; Meller, Adalberto; Fan, Fernando; Moreira, Demerval; Dias, Pedro; Buarque, Diogo; Bravo, Juan

    2013-04-01

    Flood Forecasting and issuing early warnings to communities under risk can help reduce the impacts of those events. However, to be effective, warnings should be given several hours in advance. The best solution to extend the lead time is possibly the use of rainfall-runoff models with input given by rainfall and streamflow observations and by forecasts of future precipitation derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent studies showed that probabilistic or ensemble flood forecasts produced using ensemble precipitation forecasts as input data outperform deterministic flood forecasts in several cases in Europe and the United States, and ensemble flood forecasting systems are increasingly becoming operational in these regions. In Brazil, on the other hand, operational flood warning systems are rare, and often based on simplified river routing or linear transfer function models. However, a large number of global and regional meteorological models is operationally run covering most of the country, and forecasts of those models are available for recent years. We used this available data to conduct experiments of short term ensemble flood forecasting in the Paraopeba River basin (12 thousand km2), located in Southeastern Brazil. Streamflow forecasts were produced using the MGB-IPH hydrological model, using a simple empirical state updating method and using an ensemble of precipitation forecasts generated by several models, with different initial conditions and parameterizations, from several weather forecasting centers. A single deterministic streamflow forecast, based on a quantitative precipitation forecast derived from the optimal combination of several outputs of NWP models was used as a reference to assess the performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Flood forecasts experiments were performed for three rainy seasons (austral summer) between 2008-2011. The results for predictions of dichotomous events, which mean exceeding or not flood

  10. Short-term memory deficit after focal parietal damage.

    PubMed

    Markowitsch, H J; Kalbe, E; Kessler, J; von Stockhausen, H M; Ghaemi, M; Heiss, W D

    1999-12-01

    The neuropsychological symptomatology is reported for a 44-year-old patient of normal intelligence, EE, after removal of a circumscribed left hemispheric tumor the major part of which was located in the angular gyrus and in the subcortical white matter. EE had a distinct and persistent short-term memory impairment together with an equally severe impairment in transcoding numbers. On the other hand, his performance was flawless in calculation tasks and in all other tests involving number processing. Impairments in language tests could be attributed to his short-term memory deficit, which furthermore was characterized by a strong primacy effect in the absence of a recency effect. His graphomotoric output was temporarily inhibited. The patient, with a strong left-sided dominance, manifested a bi-hemispherical activation of the Broca and Wernicke regions in a positron-emission-tomographic investigation when required to produce verbs which he was to derive from nouns. The findings in EE suggest that unilateral and restricted lateral parietal damage can result in a profound short-term memory deficit together with a transcoding deficit for stimuli extending over only a few digits or syllables in the absence of any symptoms of the Gerstmann syndrome.

  11. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  12. Does tonality boost short-term memory in congenital amusia?

    PubMed

    Albouy, Philippe; Schulze, Katrin; Caclin, Anne; Tillmann, Barbara

    2013-11-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. Recent findings have demonstrated that this deficit is linked to an impaired short-term memory for tone sequences. As it has been shown before that non-musicians' implicit knowledge of musical regularities can improve short-term memory for tone information, the present study investigated if this type of implicit knowledge could also influence amusics' short-term memory performance. Congenital amusics and their matched controls, who were non-musicians, had to indicate whether sequences of five tones, presented in pairs, were the same or different; half of the pairs respected musical regularities (tonal sequences) and the other half did not (atonal sequences). As previously reported for non-musician participants, the control participants showed better performance (as measured with d') for tonal sequences than for atonal ones. While this improvement was not observed in amusics, both control and amusic participants showed faster response times for tonal sequences than for atonal sequences. These findings suggest that some implicit processing of tonal structures is potentially preserved in congenital amusia. This observation is encouraging as it strengthens the perspective to exploit implicit knowledge to help reducing pitch perception and memory deficits in amusia. PMID:24041778

  13. Short-term memory in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

    PubMed

    Jia, Jason; Fernandes, Yohaan; Gerlai, Robert

    2014-08-15

    Learning and memory represent perhaps the most complex behavioral phenomena. Although their underlying mechanisms have been extensively analyzed, only a fraction of the potential molecular components have been identified. The zebrafish has been proposed as a screening tool with which mechanisms of complex brain functions may be systematically uncovered. However, as a relative newcomer in behavioral neuroscience, the zebrafish has not been well characterized for its cognitive and mnemonic features, thus learning and/or memory screens with adults have not been feasible. Here we study short-term memory of adult zebrafish. We show animated images of conspecifics (the stimulus) to the experimental subject during 1 min intervals on ten occasions separated by different (2, 4, 8 or 16 min long) inter-stimulus intervals (ISI), a between subject experimental design. We quantify the distance of the subject from the image presentation screen during each stimulus presentation interval, during each of the 1-min post-stimulus intervals immediately following the stimulus presentations and during each of the 1-min intervals furthest away from the last stimulus presentation interval and just before the next interval (pre-stimulus interval), respectively. Our results demonstrate significant retention of short-term memory even in the longest ISI group but suggest no acquisition of reference memory. Because in the employed paradigm both stimulus presentation and behavioral response quantification is computer automated, we argue that high-throughput screening for drugs or mutations that alter short-term memory performance of adult zebrafish is now becoming feasible.

  14. Speed selectivity in visual short term memory for motion.

    PubMed

    McKeefry, D J; Burton, M P; Vakrou, C

    2007-08-01

    In this study we employed a 'memory masking' paradigm to determine which stimulus attributes are important in the storage of information about the speed of moving grating stimuli in visual short term memory (VSTM). Delayed speed discrimination thresholds were measured in the presence of masking stimuli which varied in terms of their spatial and temporal frequency content. Memory masking results demonstrate that it is genuinely the speed of the stimulus, as opposed to temporal or spatial frequency content, that is crucial in the retention of information about motion in visual short term memory. The property of speed selectivity exhibited by VSTM mirrors that reported for neurons in area V5/MT, a brain area crucial for the processing of visual motion in primate brain. This link between area V5/MT and VSTM for motion is consistent with current views which suggest that there is a close association between the neural mechanisms involved in the analysis of sensory information and those involved in its retention in short term memory.

  15. 2-arachidonoylglycerol signaling impairs short-term fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Hartley, N D; Gunduz-Cinar, O; Halladay, L; Bukalo, O; Holmes, A; Patel, S

    2016-03-01

    Impairments in fear extinction are thought to be central to the psychopathology of posttraumatic stress disorder, and endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling has been strongly implicated in extinction learning. Here we utilized the monoacylglycerol lipase inhibitor JZL184 to selectively augment brain 2-AG levels combined with an auditory cue fear-conditioning paradigm to test the hypothesis that 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling modulates short-term fear extinction learning in mice. We show that systemic JZL184 impairs short-term extinction learning in a CB1 receptor-dependent manner without affecting non-specific freezing behavior or the acquisition of conditioned fear. This effect was also observed in over-conditioned mice environmentally manipulated to re-acquire fear extinction. Cumulatively, the effects of JZL184 appear to be partly due to augmentation of 2-AG signaling in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA), as direct microinfusion of JZL184 into the BLA produced similar results. Moreover, we elucidate a short ~3-day temporal window during which 2-AG augmentation impairs extinction behavior, suggesting a preferential role for 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling in the modulation of short-term behavioral sequelae to acute traumatic stress exposure.

  16. 2-arachidonoylglycerol signaling impairs short-term fear extinction

    PubMed Central

    Hartley, N D; Gunduz-Cinar, O; Halladay, L; Bukalo, O; Holmes, A; Patel, S

    2016-01-01

    Impairments in fear extinction are thought to be central to the psychopathology of posttraumatic stress disorder, and endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling has been strongly implicated in extinction learning. Here we utilized the monoacylglycerol lipase inhibitor JZL184 to selectively augment brain 2-AG levels combined with an auditory cue fear-conditioning paradigm to test the hypothesis that 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling modulates short-term fear extinction learning in mice. We show that systemic JZL184 impairs short-term extinction learning in a CB1 receptor-dependent manner without affecting non-specific freezing behavior or the acquisition of conditioned fear. This effect was also observed in over-conditioned mice environmentally manipulated to re-acquire fear extinction. Cumulatively, the effects of JZL184 appear to be partly due to augmentation of 2-AG signaling in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA), as direct microinfusion of JZL184 into the BLA produced similar results. Moreover, we elucidate a short ~3-day temporal window during which 2-AG augmentation impairs extinction behavior, suggesting a preferential role for 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling in the modulation of short-term behavioral sequelae to acute traumatic stress exposure. PMID:26926885

  17. Sentence Comprehension in Adolescents with down Syndrome and Typically Developing Children: Role of Sentence Voice, Visual Context, and Auditory-Verbal Short-Term Memory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miolo, Giuliana; Chapman, Robins S.; Sindberg, Heidi A.

    2005-01-01

    The authors evaluated the roles of auditory-verbal short-term memory, visual short-term memory, and group membership in predicting language comprehension, as measured by an experimental sentence comprehension task (SCT) and the Test for Auditory Comprehension of Language--Third Edition (TACL-3; E. Carrow-Woolfolk, 1999) in 38 participants: 19 with…

  18. Short-term sublethal hypoxia affects a predator-prey system in northern Adriatic transitional waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munari, Cristina; Mistri, Michele

    2012-01-01

    Predation intensity depends on factors that affect both the predator's ability to locate prey as well as defensive responses by prey to approaching predators. The interactive effects of short-term hypoxia and predation were tested on the survival of two bivalves ( Tapes philippinarum and Musculista senhousia) through laboratory experiments using the crab Carcinus aestuarii as predator. We found M. senhousia to be a focal prey of C. aestuarii but, after non-lethal hypoxia, the crabs' preference for the focal prey was influenced by the presence of the other prey, T. philippinarum. We observed an environmentally-mediated, non-reciprocal indirect interaction between the two prey species, probably caused by differences in specific traits. Identifying the influence of short-term disturbance on predator-prey relationships is critical for predicting the effects of changes in water quality on trophic interactions and food web dynamics in transitional systems.

  19. Individual preparedness and mitigation actions for a predicted earthquake in Istanbul.

    PubMed

    Tekeli-Yeşil, Sıdıka; Dedeoğlu, Necati; Tanner, Marcel; Braun-Fahrlaender, Charlotte; Obrist, Birgit

    2010-10-01

    This study investigated the process of taking action to mitigate damage and prepare for an earthquake at the individual level. Its specific aim was to identify the factors that promote or inhibit individuals in this process. The study was conducted in Istanbul, Turkey--where an earthquake is expected soon--in May and June 2006 using qualitative methods. Within our conceptual framework, three different patterns emerged among the study subjects. Outcome expectancy, helplessness, a low socioeconomic level, a culture of negligence, a lack of trust, onset time/poor predictability, and normalisation bias inhibit individuals in this process, while location, direct personal experience, a higher education level, and social interaction promote them. Drawing on these findings, the paper details key points for better disaster communication, including whom to mobilise to reach target populations, such as individuals with direct earthquake experience and women.

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    Crude oil production increased by 790,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between 2011 and 2012, the largest increase in annual output since the beginning of U.S. commercial crude oil production in 1859. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to continue rising over the next two years represented in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

  1. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  2. Association between early attention-deficit/hyperactivity symptoms and current verbal and visuo-spatial short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling

    2013-01-01

    Deficits in short-term memory are common in adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but their current ADHD symptoms cannot well predict their short-term performance. Taking a developmental perspective, we wanted to clarify the association between ADHD symptoms at early childhood and short-term memory in late childhood and adolescence. The participants included 401 patients with a clinical diagnosis of DSM-IV ADHD, 213 siblings, and 176 unaffected controls aged 8-17 years (mean age, 12.02 ± 2.24). All participants and their mothers were interviewed using the Chinese Kiddie Epidemiologic version of the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia to obtain information about ADHD symptoms and other psychiatric disorders retrospectively, at an earlier age first, then currently. The participants were assessed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--3rd edition, including Digit Span, and the Spatial working memory task of the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery. Multi-level regression models were used for data analysis. Although crude analyses revealed that inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity symptoms significantly predicted deficits in short-term memory, only inattention symptoms had significant effects (all p<0.001) in a model that included all three ADHD symptoms. After further controlling for comorbidity, age of assessment, treatment with methylphenidate, and Full-scale IQ, the severity of childhood inattention symptoms was still significantly associated with worse verbal (p = 0.008) and spatial (p ranging from 0.017 to 0.002) short-term memory at the current assessment. Therefore, our findings suggest that earlier inattention symptoms are associated with impaired verbal and visuo-spatial short-term memory at a later development stage. Impaired short-term memory in adolescence can be detected earlier by screening for the severity of inattention in childhood.

  3. Short-term missions: not what I expected.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Linda

    2012-01-01

    This article relays the experiences of a nurse practitioner serving in Haiti, before and after the 2010 Earthquake. She concludes, "I realized that God had indeed called me to serve--not as I had envisioned, but as he needed."

  4. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  5. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

  6. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

  7. Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being

  8. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  9. Auditory short-term memory in the Japanese monkey.

    PubMed

    Kojima, S

    1985-01-01

    Auditory short-term memory in Japanese monkeys (Macaca fuscata) was studied using a GO/NO GO auditory delayed matching to sample task. Three temporal parameters: delay interval, intertrial interval and sample stimulus duration were manipulated. Delayed matching performance deteriorated as the delay interval was lengthened, and reached a near chance level at 16 sec. Longer intertrial intervals and sample duration ameliorated performance. When the number of the sample stimulus was increased to 3 tones to examine a serial position effect, a primary effect was not observed, although a recency effect was obtained. The fragility of auditory delayed matching performance was discussed.

  10. Improving digit span assessment of short-term verbal memory.

    PubMed

    Woods, David L; Kishiyamaa, Mark M; Lund, E William; Herron, Timothy J; Edwards, Ben; Poliva, Oren; Hink, Robert F; Reed, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    We measured digit span (DS) in two experiments that used computerized presentation of randomized auditory digits with performance-adapted list length adjustment. A new mean span (MS) metric of DS was developed that showed reduced variance, improved test-retest reliability, and higher correlations with the results of other neuropsychological test results when compared to traditional DS measures. The MS metric also enhanced the sensitivity of forward versus backward span comparisons, enabled the development of normative performance criteria with subdigit precision, and elucidated changes in DS performance with age and education level. Computerized stimulus delivery and improved scoring metrics significantly enhance the precision of DS assessments of short-term verbal memory.

  11. Short-term prospective spirometric study of new coal miners

    SciTech Connect

    Hankinson, J.L.; Hodous, T.K.

    1982-09-01

    This study examined prospectively a small cohort (N=116) of new coal miners with questionnaires and spirometry. Data collection began just prior to underground employment and extended over a two year period at 6 month intervals to address the question or short-term adverse occupational pulmonary effects and their relationship to outward migration from the industry. A comparison of the initial (unexposed) and six month (exposed) changes in lung function over the work shift was also conducted to detect an acute effect due to dust, which might be related to chronic decline in lung function.

  12. Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweickert, Richard; Hayt, Cathrin

    1988-01-01

    In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

  13. Short-term bioconcentration studies of Np in freshwater biota

    SciTech Connect

    Poston, T.M.; Klopfer, D.C.; Simmons, M.A. )

    1990-12-01

    Short-term laboratory exposures were conducted to determine the potential accumulation of Np in aquatic organisms. Concentration factors were highest in green algae. Daphnia magna, a filter-feeding crustacean, accumulated Np at levels one order of magnitude greater than the amphipod Gammarus sp., an omnivorous substrate feeder. Accumulation of Np in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was highest in carcass (generally greater than 78% of the total body burden) and lowest in fillets. Recommended concentration factors for Np, based on fresh weight, were 300 for green algae, 100 for filter-feeding invertebrates, for nonfilter-feeding invertebrates, 10 for whole fish, and one for fish flesh.

  14. Short-term energy outlook. Volume 2. Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1983-05-01

    Recent changes in forecasting methodology for nonutility distillate fuel oil demand and for the near-term petroleum forecasts are discussed. The accuracy of previous short-term forecasts of most of the major energy sources published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook is evaluated. Macroeconomic and weather assumptions are included in this evaluation. Energy forecasts for 1983 are compared. Structural change in US petroleum consumption, the use of appropriate weather data in energy demand modeling, and petroleum inventories, imports, and refinery runs are discussed.

  15. Representation of Instantaneous and Short-Term Loudness in the Human Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Thwaites, Andrew; Glasberg, Brian R.; Nimmo-Smith, Ian; Marslen-Wilson, William D.; Moore, Brian C. J.

    2016-01-01

    Acoustic signals pass through numerous transforms in the auditory system before perceptual attributes such as loudness and pitch are derived. However, relatively little is known as to exactly when these transformations happen, and where, cortically or sub-cortically, they occur. In an effort to examine this, we investigated the latencies and locations of cortical entrainment to two transforms predicted by a model of loudness perception for time-varying sounds: the transforms were instantaneous loudness and short-term loudness, where the latter is hypothesized to be derived from the former and therefore should occur later in time. Entrainment of cortical activity was estimated from electro- and magneto-encephalographic (EMEG) activity, recorded while healthy subjects listened to continuous speech. There was entrainment to instantaneous loudness bilaterally at 45, 100, and 165 ms, in Heschl's gyrus, dorsal lateral sulcus, and Heschl's gyrus, respectively. Entrainment to short-term loudness was found in both the dorsal lateral sulcus and superior temporal sulcus at 275 ms. These results suggest that short-term loudness is derived from instantaneous loudness, and that this derivation occurs after processing in sub-cortical structures. PMID:27199645

  16. Representation of Instantaneous and Short-Term Loudness in the Human Cortex.

    PubMed

    Thwaites, Andrew; Glasberg, Brian R; Nimmo-Smith, Ian; Marslen-Wilson, William D; Moore, Brian C J

    2016-01-01

    Acoustic signals pass through numerous transforms in the auditory system before perceptual attributes such as loudness and pitch are derived. However, relatively little is known as to exactly when these transformations happen, and where, cortically or sub-cortically, they occur. In an effort to examine this, we investigated the latencies and locations of cortical entrainment to two transforms predicted by a model of loudness perception for time-varying sounds: the transforms were instantaneous loudness and short-term loudness, where the latter is hypothesized to be derived from the former and therefore should occur later in time. Entrainment of cortical activity was estimated from electro- and magneto-encephalographic (EMEG) activity, recorded while healthy subjects listened to continuous speech. There was entrainment to instantaneous loudness bilaterally at 45, 100, and 165 ms, in Heschl's gyrus, dorsal lateral sulcus, and Heschl's gyrus, respectively. Entrainment to short-term loudness was found in both the dorsal lateral sulcus and superior temporal sulcus at 275 ms. These results suggest that short-term loudness is derived from instantaneous loudness, and that this derivation occurs after processing in sub-cortical structures. PMID:27199645

  17. A COMPARISON OF WINTER SHORT-TERM AND ANNUAL AVERAGE RADON MEASUREMENTS IN BASEMENTS OF A RADON-PRONE REGION AND EVALUATION OF FURTHER RADON TESTING INDICATORS

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Nirmalla G.; Steck, Daniel J.; Field, R. William

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the temporal variability between basement winter short-term (7 to 10 days) and basement annual radon measurements. Other objectives were to test the short-term measurement’s diagnostic performance at two reference levels and to evaluate its ability to predict annual average basement radon concentrations. Electret ion chamber (short-term) and alpha track (annual) radon measurements were obtained by trained personnel in Iowa residences. Overall, the geometric mean of the short-term radon concentrations (199 Bq m−3) was slightly greater than the geometric mean of the annual radon concentrations (181 Bq m−3). Short-term tests incorrectly predicted that the basement annual radon concentrations would be below 148 Bq m−3 12% of the time and 2% of the time at 74 Bq m−3. The short-term and annual radon concentrations were strongly correlated (r=0.87, p<0.0001). The foundation wall material of the basement was the only significant factor to have an impact on the absolute difference between the short-term and annual measurements. The findings from this study provide evidence of a substantially lower likelihood of obtaining a false negative result from a single short-term test in a region with high indoor radon potential when the reference level is lowered to 74 Bq m−3. PMID:24670901

  18. A Hybrid Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Earthquakes in Western Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Law, A.; Moores, A. O.

    2015-12-01

    Estimation of ground-motion amplitudes that may be produced by future earthquakes constitutes the foundation of seismic hazard assessment and earthquake-resistant structural design. This is typically done by using a prediction equation that quantifies amplitudes as a function of key seismological variables such as magnitude, distance and site condition. In this study, we develop a hybrid empirical prediction equation for earthquakes in western Alberta, where evaluation of seismic hazard associated with induced seismicity is of particular interest. We use peak ground motions and response spectra from recorded seismic events to model the regional source and attenuation attributes. The available empirical data is limited in the magnitude range of engineering interest (M>4). Therefore, we combine empirical data with a simulation-based model in order to obtain seismologically informed predictions for moderate-to-large magnitude events. The methodology is two-fold. First, we investigate the shape of geometrical spreading in Alberta. We supplement the seismic data with ground motions obtained from mining/quarry blasts, in order to gain insights into the regional attenuation over a wide distance range. A comparison of ground-motion amplitudes for earthquakes and mining/quarry blasts show that both event types decay at similar rates with distance and demonstrate a significant Moho-bounce effect. In the second stage, we calibrate the source and attenuation parameters of a simulation-based prediction equation to match the available amplitude data from seismic events. We model the geometrical spreading using a trilinear function with attenuation rates obtained from the first stage, and calculate coefficients of anelastic attenuation and site amplification via regression analysis. This provides a hybrid ground-motion prediction equation that is calibrated for observed motions in western Alberta and is applicable to moderate-to-large magnitude events.

  19. Application of decision trees to the analysis of soil radon data for earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Zmazek, B; Todorovski, L; Dzeroski, S; Vaupotic, J; Kobal, I

    2003-06-01

    Different regression methods have been used to predict radon concentration in soil gas on the basis of environmental data, i.e. barometric pressure, soil temperature, air temperature and rainfall. Analyses of the radon data from three stations in the Krsko basin, Slovenia, have shown that model trees outperform other regression methods. A model has been built which predicts radon concentration with a correlation of 0.8, provided it is influenced only by the environmental parameters. In periods with seismic activity this correlation is much lower. This decrease in predictive accuracy appears 1-7 days before earthquakes with local magnitude 0.8-3.3.

  20. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2016-04-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  1. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, third quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the second quarter of 1996, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the third quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  2. Plant community controls on short-term ecosystem nitrogen retention.

    PubMed

    de Vries, Franciska T; Bardgett, Richard D

    2016-05-01

    Retention of nitrogen (N) is a critical ecosystem function, especially in the face of widespread anthropogenic N enrichment; however, our understanding of the mechanisms involved is limited. Here, we tested under glasshouse conditions how plant community attributes, including variations in the dominance, diversity and range of plant functional traits, influence N uptake and retention in temperate grassland. We added a pulse of (15) N to grassland plant communities assembled to represent a range of community-weighted mean plant traits, trait functional diversity and divergence, and species richness, and measured plant and microbial uptake of (15) N, and leaching losses of (15) N, as a short-term test of N retention in the plant-soil system. Root biomass, herb abundance and dominant plant traits were the main determinants of N retention in the plant-soil system: greater root biomass and herb abundance, and lower root tissue density, increased plant (15) N uptake, while higher specific leaf area and root tissue density increased microbial (15) N uptake. Our results provide novel, mechanistic insight into the short-term fate of N in the plant-soil system, and show that dominant plant traits, rather than trait functional diversity, control the fate of added N in the plant-soil system.

  3. Short-Term Effects of Hydrokinesiotherapy in Hospitalized Preterm Newborns

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira Tobinaga, Welcy Cassiano; Abelenda, Vera Lucia Barros; de Sá, Paula Morisco

    2016-01-01

    Background. In the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) environment, preterm newborns are subject to environmental stress and numerous painful interventions. It is known that hydrokinesiotherapy promotes comfort and reduces stress because of the physiological properties of water. Objective. To evaluate the short-term effects of hydrokinesiotherapy on reducing stress in preterm newborns admitted to the NICU. Materials and Methods. Fifteen preterm newborns underwent salivary cortisol measurement, pain evaluation using the Neonatal Infant Pain Scale (NIPS), and heart rate, respiratory rate, and peripheral oxygen saturation measurements before and after the application of hydrokinesiotherapy. Results. The mean gestational age of the newborns was 34.2 ± 1.66 weeks, and the mean weight was 1823.3 ± 437.4 g. Immediately after application of hydrokinesiotherapy, a significant reduction was observed in salivary cortisol (p = 0.004), heart rate (p = 0.003), and respiratory rate (p = 0.004) and a significant increase was observed in peripheral oxygen saturation (p = 0.002). However, no significant difference was observed in the NIPS score (p > 0.05). Conclusion. In the present study, neonatal hydrotherapy promoted short-term relief from feelings of stress. Neonatal hydrokinesiotherapy may be a therapeutic alternative. However, this therapy needs to be studied in randomized, crossover, and blinded trials. This trial is registered with NCT02707731.

  4. Short-term algal toxicity test based on phosphate uptake.

    PubMed

    Kaneko, H Hidehiro; Shimada, Akiko; Hirayama, Kimiaki

    2004-04-01

    In order to develop a short-term algal toxicity test, the growth of and the phosphate uptake by the green alga Selenastrum capricornutum during batch culture were observed. In the control medium, S. capricornutum took up phosphate earlier than it grew. It was also observed that the phosphate uptake was inhibited by the presence of a toxicant. From these results, phosphate uptake was considered as one of the useful effect parameters for a short-term algal toxicity test. As the removal rate of phosphate from the medium is a function of the amount of algal cell initially inoculated, the test period is variable. The relationship between the amount of inoculation and phosphate uptake was examined and the test conditions suitable for a 3-h toxicity test were established as one example. According to this test procedure, the inhibitory effect of some toxicants on the phosphate uptake was determined. For comparison, a conventional algal assay based on algal growth was also performed. The EC50s for both tests were close. This indicated that the algal toxicity test method proposed in this paper would be useful for the uses where rapidity is required. PMID:15087199

  5. Robust short-term memory without synaptic learning.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J; Torres, Joaquín J

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can--as a gradual modification of synaptic weights--since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings. PMID:23349664

  6. Short-Term Effects of Hydrokinesiotherapy in Hospitalized Preterm Newborns.

    PubMed

    de Oliveira Tobinaga, Welcy Cassiano; de Lima Marinho, Cirlene; Abelenda, Vera Lucia Barros; de Sá, Paula Morisco; Lopes, Agnaldo José

    2016-01-01

    Background. In the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) environment, preterm newborns are subject to environmental stress and numerous painful interventions. It is known that hydrokinesiotherapy promotes comfort and reduces stress because of the physiological properties of water. Objective. To evaluate the short-term effects of hydrokinesiotherapy on reducing stress in preterm newborns admitted to the NICU. Materials and Methods. Fifteen preterm newborns underwent salivary cortisol measurement, pain evaluation using the Neonatal Infant Pain Scale (NIPS), and heart rate, respiratory rate, and peripheral oxygen saturation measurements before and after the application of hydrokinesiotherapy. Results. The mean gestational age of the newborns was 34.2 ± 1.66 weeks, and the mean weight was 1823.3 ± 437.4 g. Immediately after application of hydrokinesiotherapy, a significant reduction was observed in salivary cortisol (p = 0.004), heart rate (p = 0.003), and respiratory rate (p = 0.004) and a significant increase was observed in peripheral oxygen saturation (p = 0.002). However, no significant difference was observed in the NIPS score (p > 0.05). Conclusion. In the present study, neonatal hydrotherapy promoted short-term relief from feelings of stress. Neonatal hydrokinesiotherapy may be a therapeutic alternative. However, this therapy needs to be studied in randomized, crossover, and blinded trials. This trial is registered with NCT02707731. PMID:27672453

  7. Short-term energy outlook, Annual supplement 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-25

    This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of non-transportation energy demand by sector. The empirical analysis involves the short-run energy demand in the residential, commercial, industrial, and electrical utility sectors in US.

  8. Short-Term Effects of Hydrokinesiotherapy in Hospitalized Preterm Newborns

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira Tobinaga, Welcy Cassiano; Abelenda, Vera Lucia Barros; de Sá, Paula Morisco

    2016-01-01

    Background. In the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) environment, preterm newborns are subject to environmental stress and numerous painful interventions. It is known that hydrokinesiotherapy promotes comfort and reduces stress because of the physiological properties of water. Objective. To evaluate the short-term effects of hydrokinesiotherapy on reducing stress in preterm newborns admitted to the NICU. Materials and Methods. Fifteen preterm newborns underwent salivary cortisol measurement, pain evaluation using the Neonatal Infant Pain Scale (NIPS), and heart rate, respiratory rate, and peripheral oxygen saturation measurements before and after the application of hydrokinesiotherapy. Results. The mean gestational age of the newborns was 34.2 ± 1.66 weeks, and the mean weight was 1823.3 ± 437.4 g. Immediately after application of hydrokinesiotherapy, a significant reduction was observed in salivary cortisol (p = 0.004), heart rate (p = 0.003), and respiratory rate (p = 0.004) and a significant increase was observed in peripheral oxygen saturation (p = 0.002). However, no significant difference was observed in the NIPS score (p > 0.05). Conclusion. In the present study, neonatal hydrotherapy promoted short-term relief from feelings of stress. Neonatal hydrokinesiotherapy may be a therapeutic alternative. However, this therapy needs to be studied in randomized, crossover, and blinded trials. This trial is registered with NCT02707731. PMID:27672453

  9. Early neural signatures of visual short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Agam, Yigal; Hyun, Joo-Seok; Danker, Jared F; Zhou, Feng; Kahana, Michael J; Sekuler, Robert

    2009-01-15

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) relies on a distributed network including sensory-related, posterior regions of the brain and frontal areas associated with attention and cognitive control. To characterize the fine temporal details of processing within this network, we recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) while human subjects performed a recognition-memory task. The task's difficulty was graded by varying the perceptual similarity between the items held in memory and the probe used to access memory. The evaluation of VSTM's contents against a test stimulus produced clear similarity-dependent differences in ERPs as early as 156 ms after probe onset. Posterior recording sites were the first to reflect the difficulty of the analysis, preceding their frontal counterparts by about 50 ms. Our results suggest an initial feed-forward interaction underlying stimulus-memory comparisons, consistent with the idea that visual areas contribute to temporary storage of visual information for use in ongoing tasks. This study provides a first look into early neural activity underlying the processing of visual information in short-term memory.

  10. Statistical approaches to short-term electricity forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kellova, Andrea

    The study of the short-term forecasting of electricity demand has played a key role in the economic optimization of the electric energy industry and is essential for power systems planning and operation. In electric energy markets, accurate short-term forecasting of electricity demand is necessary mainly for economic operations. Our focus is directed to the question of electricity demand forecasting in the Czech Republic. Firstly, we describe the current structure and organization of the Czech, as well as the European, electricity market. Secondly, we provide a complex description of the most powerful external factors influencing electricity consumption. The choice of the most appropriate model is conditioned by these electricity demand determining factors. Thirdly, we build up several types of multivariate forecasting models, both linear and nonlinear. These models are, respectively, linear regression models and artificial neural networks. Finally, we compare the forecasting power of both kinds of models using several statistical accuracy measures. Our results suggest that although the electricity demand forecasting in the Czech Republic is for the considered years rather a nonlinear than a linear problem, for practical purposes simple linear models with nonlinear inputs can be adequate. This is confirmed by the values of the empirical loss function applied to the forecasting results.

  11. Similarity as an organising principle in short-term memory.

    PubMed

    LeCompte, D C; Watkins, M J

    1993-03-01

    The role of stimulus similarity as an organising principle in short-term memory was explored in a series of seven experiments. Each experiment involved the presentation of a short sequence of items that were drawn from two distinct physical classes and arranged such that item class changed after every second item. Following presentation, one item was re-presented as a probe for the 'target' item that had directly followed it in the sequence. Memory for the sequence was considered organised by class if probability of recall was higher when the probe and target were from the same class than when they were from different classes. Such organisation was found when one class was auditory and the other was visual (spoken vs. written words, and sounds vs. pictures). It was also found when both classes were auditory (words spoken in a male voice vs. words spoken in a female voice) and when both classes were visual (digits shown in one location vs. digits shown in another). It is concluded that short-term memory can be organised on the basis of sensory modality and on the basis of certain features within both the auditory and visual modalities.

  12. Short-term memory for emotional faces in dysphoria.

    PubMed

    Noreen, Saima; Ridout, Nathan

    2010-07-01

    The study aimed to determine if the memory bias for negative faces previously demonstrated in depression and dysphoria generalises from long- to short-term memory. A total of 29 dysphoric (DP) and 22 non-dysphoric (ND) participants were presented with a series of faces and asked to identify the emotion portrayed (happiness, sadness, anger, or neutral affect). Following a delay, four faces were presented (the original plus three distractors) and participants were asked to identify the target face. Half of the trials assessed memory for facial emotion, and the remaining trials examined memory for facial identity. At encoding, no group differences were apparent. At memory testing, relative to ND participants, DP participants exhibited impaired memory for all types of facial emotion and for facial identity when the faces featured happiness, anger, or neutral affect, but not sadness. DP participants exhibited impaired identity memory for happy faces relative to angry, sad, and neutral, whereas ND participants exhibited enhanced facial identity memory when faces were angry. In general, memory for faces was not related to performance at encoding. However, in DP participants only, memory for sad faces was related to sadness recognition at encoding. The results suggest that the negative memory bias for faces in dysphoria does not generalise from long- to short-term memory. PMID:20544496

  13. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquín J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can – as a gradual modification of synaptic weights – since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings. PMID:23349664

  14. Short term dynamics of the debris-covered Miage Glacier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fyffe, Catriona; Brock, Ben; Kirkbride, Martin; Mair, Doug; Smiraglia, Claudio; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina

    2016-04-01

    Due to the often inaccessible nature of debris-covered glaciers, studies of their dynamics tend to be restricted to those using remotely sensed data. This paper presents data on the short-term glacier dynamics of the debris-covered Miage Glacier, Western Italian Alps. The glacier velocity was calculated from repeat occupation of up to 22 points using a differential GPS system over two melt seasons. Meteorological, hydrological and water chemistry data were collected over the same time periods, and the nature of the hydrological system was studied using dye tracing, to allow the short term variations in glacier dynamics to be understood in terms of the likely glacial drainage system and its evolution. The highest glacier velocities and the greatest velocity variability was found near to where a cluster of moulins enter the glacier, close to the limit of continuous debris cover. The melt from the clean and dirty ice occasionally led to inputs overcoming the channelized system (both in spring and mid-summer), leading to increased velocities. On the debris-covered lower glacier however velocities were lower and less variable, and significant speed-up was confined to a period when subglacial water was thought to have been transferred subglacially from higher upglacier. The subdued sub-debris melt signal is thought to be the cause of the reduced velocity variability, in spite of the hydrological system beneath this part of the glacier remaining inefficient.

  15. Gaze direction affects visuo-spatial short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Carlei, Christophe; Kerzel, Dirk

    2014-10-01

    Hemispheric asymmetries were investigated by changing the horizontal position of stimuli that had to be remembered in a visuo-spatial short-term memory task. Observers looked at matrices containing a variable number of filled squares on the left or right side of the screen center. At stimulus offset, participants reproduced the positions of the filled squares in an empty response matrix. Stimulus and response matrices were presented in the same quadrant. We observed that memory performance was better when the matrices were shown on the left side of the screen. We distinguished between recall strategies that relied on visual or non-visual (verbal) cues and found that the effect of gaze position occurred more reliably in participants using visual recall strategies. Overall, the results show that there is a solid enhancement of visuo-spatial short-term memory when observers look to the left. In contrast, vertical position had no influence on performance. We suggest that unilateral gaze to the left activates centers in the right hemisphere contributing to visuo-spatial memory. PMID:24998909

  16. Short-Term Test Results: Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    SciTech Connect

    Lyons, J.

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. The Bay Ridge project is comprised of a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). The base scope has been applied to the entire complex, except for one 12-unit building which underwent the DER scope. Findings from the implementation, commissioning, and short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach. Despite being a moderate rehab instead of a gut rehab, the Bay Ridge DER is currently projected to achieve energy savings ≥ 50% compared to pre-retrofit, and the short-term testing supports this estimate.

  17. By How Much Can Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations Reduce the Uncertainties in Ground Motion Predictions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.; Wang, F.

    2014-12-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the scientific basis for many engineering and social applications: performance-based design, seismic retrofitting, resilience engineering, insurance-rate setting, disaster preparation, emergency response, and public education. The uncertainties in PSHA predictions can be expressed as an aleatory variability that describes the randomness of the earthquake system, conditional on a system representation, and an epistemic uncertainty that characterizes errors in the system representation. Standard PSHA models use empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that have a high aleatory variability, primarily because they do not account for the effects of crustal heterogeneities, which scatter seismic wavefields and cause local amplifications in strong ground motions that can exceed an order of magnitude. We show how much this variance can be lowered by simulating seismic wave propagation through 3D crustal models derived from waveform tomography. Our basic analysis tool is the new technique of averaging-based factorization (ABF), which uses a well-specified seismological hierarchy to decompose exactly and uniquely the logarithmic excitation functional into a series of uncorrelated terms that include unbiased averages of the site, path, hypocenter, and source-complexity effects (Feng & Jordan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 2014, doi:10.1785/0120130263). We apply ABF to characterize the differences in ground motion predictions between the standard GMPEs employed by the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the simulation-based CyberShake hazard model of the Southern California Earthquake Center. The ABF analysis indicates that, at low seismic frequencies (< 1 Hz), CyberShake site and path effects unexplained by the GMPEs account 40-50% of total residual variance. Therefore, accurate earthquake simulations have the potential for reducing the aleatory variance of the strong-motion predictions by about a factor of two, which would

  18. Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lin, Ting; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Baker, Jack W.; Luco, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

  19. Memory timeline: Brain ERP C250 (not P300) is an early biomarker of short-term storage.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Robert M; Gardner, Margaret N; Mapstone, Mark; Dupree, Haley M; Antonsdottir, Inga M

    2015-04-16

    Brain event-related potentials (ERPs) offer a quantitative link between neurophysiological activity and cognitive performance. ERPs were measured while young adults performed a task that required storing a relevant stimulus in short-term memory. Using principal components analysis, ERP component C250 (maximum at 250 ms post-stimulus) was extracted from a set of ERPs that were separately averaged for various task conditions, including stimulus relevancy and stimulus sequence within a trial. C250 was more positive in response to task-specific stimuli that were successfully stored in short-term memory. This relationship between C250 and short-term memory storage of a stimulus was confirmed by a memory probe recall test where the behavioral recall of a stimulus was highly correlated with its C250 amplitude. ERP component P300 (and its subcomponents of P3a and P3b, which are commonly thought to represent memory operations) did not show a pattern of activation reflective of storing task-relevant stimuli. C250 precedes the P300, indicating that initial short-term memory storage may occur earlier than previously believed. Additionally, because C250 is so strongly predictive of a stimulus being stored in short-term memory, C250 may provide a strong index of early memory operations.

  20. Integrating short-term and long-term forecasting with reservoir optimisation; Mantaro Basin, Peru.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, R. A.; Lasarte, A.; Butts, M. B.

    2009-04-01

    Operational water management often requires a trade-off between short-term and long-term water demands, where short-term demands are driven for example by hydropower generation and flood protection requirements and the long-term demands by water and irrigation supply, sustainable reservoir management and the seasonal impacts of snow melt or climate. This paper presents an operational decision support system designed to forecast and optimise reservoir operations in both the short-term and long-term. The system has been established for the 20,000 km2 Mantaro river basin located in the high Andes with altitudes ranging from 3500 to nearly 6000 m.a.s.l.. The two main power stations at Tablachaca have a combined capacity of more than 1000 MW that supplies 30% of Peru's electrical energy. In addition, the basin's water resources supply extensive agricultural areas, an urban population and mining activities and sustain important ecological habitats. In this paper, the methodologies used for the integrating short-term and long-term forecasting are presented together with their application to the optimal operation of reservoirs. A key element in the system is the MIKE BASIN modelling tool. The system uses several modelling capabilities of MIKE BASIN: rainfall-runoff, reservoir operation, hydropower production, and river flow routing. The system also takes advantage of long-term forecasts (based on statistical information) and short-term forecasts (based on telemetry data). The continually updated runoff and flow forecasts enter the optimization, which applies the Model Predictive Control principle for MIKE BASIN as the core simulation model. For each optimization, a non-linear program algorithm is used to find the best release strategy. On the basis of the forecasted inflows and the real time data the system suggests to the user from which reservoirs to release water for alleviation of possible forecasted deficits. In addition to the Tablachaca scheme the model accounts for

  1. Time-Based Loss in Visual Short-Term Memory Is from Trace Decay, Not Temporal Distinctiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ricker, Timothy J.; Spiegel, Lauren R.; Cowan, Nelson

    2014-01-01

    There is no consensus as to why forgetting occurs in short-term memory tasks. In past work, we have shown that forgetting occurs with the passage of time, but there are 2 classes of theories that can explain this effect. In the present work, we investigate the reason for time-based forgetting by contrasting the predictions of temporal…

  2. Facilitative Effects of Forgetting from Short-Term Memory on Growth of Long-Term Memory in Retardates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sperber, Richard D.

    1976-01-01

    Competing explanations of the beneficial effect of spacing in retardate discrimination learning were tested. Results are inconsistent with consolidation and rehearsal theories but support the prediction of the Geber, Greenfield, and House spacing model that forgetting from short-term memory facilities retardate learning. (Author/SB)

  3. Short-Term Memory for Temporal Intervals: Contrasting Explanations of the Choose-Short Effect in Pigeons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pinto, Carlos; Machado, Armando

    2011-01-01

    To better understand short-term memory for temporal intervals, we re-examined the choose-short effect. In Experiment 1, to contrast the predictions of two models of this effect, the subjective shortening and the coding models, pigeons were exposed to a delayed matching-to-sample task with three sample durations (2, 6 and 18 s) and retention…

  4. The Virtual Quake earthquake simulator: a simulation-based forecast of the El Mayor-Cucapah region and evidence of predictability in simulated earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoder, Mark R.; Schultz, Kasey W.; Heien, Eric M.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Parker, Jay W.; Donnellan, Andrea

    2015-12-01

    In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m > 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert-based forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of activation versus quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviours separately for independent fault sections; some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California, USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico.

  5. The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

    2008-09-01

    Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from limited task experience or from short-term memory limitations. As predicted by the naive sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), overconfidence with probability judgment is rapidly reduced by additional task experience, whereas overconfidence with intuitive confidence intervals is minimally affected even by extensive task experience. In contrast to the minor bias with probability judgment, the extreme overconfidence bias with intuitive confidence intervals is correlated with short-term memory capacity. The proposed interpretation is that increased task experience is not sufficient to cure the overconfidence with confidence intervals because it stems from short-term memory limitations. PMID:18763889

  6. A novel approach for short-term load forecasting using support vector machines.

    PubMed

    Tian, Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2004-10-01

    A support vector machine (SVM) modeling approach for short-term load forecasting is proposed. The SVM learning scheme is applied to the power load data, forcing the network to learn the inherent internal temporal property of power load sequence. We also study the performance when other related input variables such as temperature and humidity are considered. The performance of our proposed SVM modeling approach has been tested and compared with feed-forward neural network and cosine radial basis function neural network approaches. Numerical results show that the SVM approach yields better generalization capability and lower prediction error compared to those neural network approaches.

  7. Short-term contracts: Descending the career ladder

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, Elizabeth

    2002-12-01

    Elizabeth Griffin brings a personal insight to the hurdles that women seeking a scientific career face, arguing that the only gender differences are those of attitude, tradition and style. The policy of employing some but not all academic researchers through short-term contracts is highly divisive, in that it creates a two-tier system not only of opportunities and expectations but also of personal worth and value. Far more women than men are trapped in these career cul-de-sacs, and a seriously large fraction is unable to stay in research until retirement. It is the employment policy that is at fault, not the potential of the researchers or the quality of their research.

  8. Short-Term Test Results. Multifamily Home Energy Efficiency Retrofit

    SciTech Connect

    Lyons, James

    2013-01-01

    Multifamily deep energy retrofits (DERs) represent great potential for energy savings, while also providing valuable insights on research-generated efficiency measures, cost-effectiveness metrics, and risk factor strategies for the multifamily housing industry. This report describes the Bay Ridge project, a base scope retrofit with a goal of achieving 30% savings (relative to pre-retrofit), and a DER scope with a goal of 50% savings (relative to pre-retrofit). Findings from the short-term testing at Bay Ridge include air infiltration reductions of greater than 60% in the DER building; a hybrid heat pump system with a Savings to Investment Ratio (SIR) > 1 (relative to a high efficiency furnace) which also provides the resident with added incentive for energy savings; and duct leakage reductions of > 60% using an aerosolized duct sealing approach.

  9. The effects of short-term hypergravity on Caenorhabditis elegans.

    PubMed

    Saldanha, Jenifer N; Pandey, Santosh; Powell-Coffman, Jo Anne

    2016-08-01

    As we seek to recognize the opportunities of advanced aerospace technologies and spaceflight, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of hypergravity, defined as gravitational forces greater than those present on the earth's surface. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been established as a powerful model to study the effects of altered gravity regimens and has displayed remarkable resilience to space travel. In this study, we investigate the effects of short-term and defined hypergravity exposure on C. elegans motility, brood size, pharyngeal pumping rates, and lifespan. The results from this study advance our understanding of the effects of shorter durations of exposure to increased gravitational forces on C. elegans, and also contribute to the growing body of literature on the impacts of altered gravity regimens on earth's life forms. PMID:27662786

  10. Biochemical and hematologic changes after short-term space flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leach, Carolyn S.

    1991-01-01

    Clinical laboratory data from blood samples obtained from astronauts before and after 28 flights (average duration = 6 days) of the Space Shuttle were analyzed by the paired t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and compared with data from the Skylab flights (duration = 28, 56, and 84 days). Angiotensin I and aldosterone were elevated immediately after short-term space flights, but the response of angiotensin I was delayed after Skylab flights. Serum calcium was not elevated after Shuttle flights, but magnesium and uric acid decreased after both Shuttle and Skylab. Creatine phosphokinase in serum was reduced after Shuttle but not Skylab flights, probably because exercises to prevent deconditioning were not performed on the Shuttle. Total cholesterol was unchanged after Shuttle flights, but low density lipoprotein cholesterol increased and high density lipoprotein cholesterol decreased. The concentration of red blood cells was elevated after Shuttle flights and reduced after Skylab flights.

  11. Short-term Variability of Extinction by Broadband Stellar Photometry

    SciTech Connect

    Musat, I.C.; Ellingson, R.G.

    2005-03-18

    Aerosol optical depth variation over short-term time intervals is determined from broadband observations of stars with a whole sky imager. The main difficulty in such measurements consists of accurately separating the star flux value from the non-stellar diffuse skylight. Using correction method to overcome this difficulty, the monochromatic extinction at the ground due to aerosols is extracted from heterochromatic measurements. A form of closure is achieved by comparison with simultaneous or temporally close measurements with other instruments, and the total error of the method, as a combination of random error of measurements and systematic error of calibration and model, is assessed as being between 2.6 and 3% rms.

  12. The effects of short-term hypergravity on Caenorhabditis elegans.

    PubMed

    Saldanha, Jenifer N; Pandey, Santosh; Powell-Coffman, Jo Anne

    2016-08-01

    As we seek to recognize the opportunities of advanced aerospace technologies and spaceflight, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of hypergravity, defined as gravitational forces greater than those present on the earth's surface. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been established as a powerful model to study the effects of altered gravity regimens and has displayed remarkable resilience to space travel. In this study, we investigate the effects of short-term and defined hypergravity exposure on C. elegans motility, brood size, pharyngeal pumping rates, and lifespan. The results from this study advance our understanding of the effects of shorter durations of exposure to increased gravitational forces on C. elegans, and also contribute to the growing body of literature on the impacts of altered gravity regimens on earth's life forms.

  13. Short-Term Outlook for Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    U.S. liquid fuels production increased from 7.43 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2008 to 13.75 million b/d in 2015. However, the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects liquid fuels production to decline to 12.99 million b/d in 2017, mainly as a result of prolonged low oil prices. The liquid fuels production forecast reflects a 1.24 million b/d decline in crude oil production by 2017 that is partially offset by a 450,000 b/d increase in the production of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL)—a group of products including ethane, propane, butane (normal and isobutane), natural gasoline, and refinery olefins. This analysis will discuss the outlook for each of these four HGL streams and related infrastructure projects through 2017.

  14. Risk Quantification for ANN Based Short-Term Load Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwashita, Daisuke; Mori, Hiroyuki

    A new risk assessment method for short-term load forecasting is proposed. The proposed method makes use of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast one-step ahead daily maximum loads and evaluate uncertainty of in load forecasting. As ANN the model, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) network is employed to forecast loads due to the good performance. Sufficient realistic pseudo-scenarios are required to carry out quantitative risk analysis. The multivariate normal distribution with the correlation between input variables is used to give more realistic results to ANN. In addition, the method of Moment Matching is used to improve the accuracy of the multivariate normal distribution. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach is used to evaluate risk that exceeds the upper bounds of generation capacity. The proposed method is successfully applied to real data of daily maximum load forecasting.

  15. Short term load forecasting using fuzzy neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Bakirtzis, A.G.; Theocharis, J.B.; Kiartzis, S.J.; Satsios, K.J.

    1995-08-01

    This paper presents the development of a fuzzy system for short term load forecasting. The fuzzy system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network and is called Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN). A FNN initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. The parameters of the rule base are then tuned through a training process, so that the output of the FNN adequately matches the available historical load data. Once trained, the FNN can be used to forecast future loads. Test results show that the FNN can forecast future loads with an accuracy comparable to that of neural networks, while its training is much faster than that of neural networks.

  16. Short-term memory impairment and arithmetical ability.

    PubMed

    Butterworth, B; Cipolotti, L; Warrington, E K

    1996-02-01

    We document the dissociation of preserved calculation skills in a patient with impaired auditory short-term memory. The patient (MRF) had a memory span of three digits. Furthermore, he showed rapid decrement in performance of single digits and letters with both auditory and visual presentation in the Brown-Peterson forgetting task. Analysis of his calculation skills revealed a normal ability to solve auditorily presented multidigit addition and subtraction problems such as 173 + 68 and to execute the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task (Sampson, 1956, 1958; Gronwall, 1977). In addition, his performance on other tests, including arithmetic manipulation of natural numbers, decimals and fractions, approximation, magnitude, ratio, and percentage, appeared to be normal (Hitch, 1978b). It is argued that these findings require a revision of Baddeley and Hitch's (1974) concept of the function of working memory. PMID:8920104

  17. Astronomical observation tasks short-term scheduling using PDDS algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kornilov, M. V.

    2016-07-01

    A concept of the ground-based optical astronomical observation efficiency is considered in this paper. We believe that a telescope efficiency can be increased by properly allocating observation tasks with respect to the current environment state and probability to obtain the data with required properties under the current conditions. An online observations scheduling is assumed to be an essential part for raising the efficiency. The short-term online scheduling is treated as the discrete optimisation problems which are stated using several abstraction levels. The optimisation problems are solved using the parallel depth-bounded discrepancy search (PDDS) algorithm by Moisan et al. (2014). Some aspects of the algorithm performance are discussed. The presented algorithm is a core of open-source chelyabinsk C++ library which is planned to be used at 2.5 m telescope of Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Lomonosov Moscow State University.

  18. Emulating short-term synaptic dynamics with memristive devices

    PubMed Central

    Berdan, Radu; Vasilaki, Eleni; Khiat, Ali; Indiveri, Giacomo; Serb, Alexandru; Prodromakis, Themistoklis

    2016-01-01

    Neuromorphic architectures offer great promise for achieving computation capacities beyond conventional Von Neumann machines. The essential elements for achieving this vision are highly scalable synaptic mimics that do not undermine biological fidelity. Here we demonstrate that single solid-state TiO2 memristors can exhibit non-associative plasticity phenomena observed in biological synapses, supported by their metastable memory state transition properties. We show that, contrary to conventional uses of solid-state memory, the existence of rate-limiting volatility is a key feature for capturing short-term synaptic dynamics. We also show how the temporal dynamics of our prototypes can be exploited to implement spatio-temporal computation, demonstrating the memristors full potential for building biophysically realistic neural processing systems. PMID:26725838

  19. Cash benefits for short-term sickness, 1948--76.

    PubMed

    Price, D N

    1978-10-01

    National income-maintenance programs provide cash benefits when workers become unemployed, retire, are injured on the job, have a long-term disability, or die. For short-term sickness, however, only five States, one other jurisdiction, and a single industry require wage-replacement protection. Voluntary plans cover a substantial number of additional workers, including many whose protection was established through labor-management negotiations. In this annual update of estimates on the extent of protection provided, many of the historical statistics have been revised back to 1967 as a result of new information on the amount of sick-leave benefits paid to employees of the Federal Government. The effects of the new data on the benefit series are examined, as are trends in the provision of sickness benefits for maternity--an issue subject to considerable recent controversy. PMID:715639

  20. Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

    2016-07-01

    In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

  1. The effects of short-term hypergravity on Caenorhabditis elegans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldanha, Jenifer N.; Pandey, Santosh; Powell-Coffman, Jo Anne

    2016-08-01

    As we seek to recognize the opportunities of advanced aerospace technologies and spaceflight, it is increasingly important to understand the impacts of hypergravity, defined as gravitational forces greater than those present on the earth's surface. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been established as a powerful model to study the effects of altered gravity regimens and has displayed remarkable resilience to space travel. In this study, we investigate the effects of short-term and defined hypergravity exposure on C. elegans motility, brood size, pharyngeal pumping rates, and lifespan. The results from this study advance our understanding of the effects of shorter durations of exposure to increased gravitational forces on C. elegans, and also contribute to the growing body of literature on the impacts of altered gravity regimens on earth's life forms.

  2. [Activity of Ginkgo biloba extract on short-term memory].

    PubMed

    Hindmarch, I

    1986-09-25

    Eight healthy female volunteers were included in a double-blind, cross-over trial comparing Ginkgo biloba extract in acute and ascending doses (120, 240, 600 mg) with a placebo. One hour after treatment they were subjected to a battery of tests, including: critical flicker fusion, choice reaction time, subjective rating scale and Sternberg memory scanning test. No statistically significant differences with the placebo were observed in the first three tests. In contrast, short term memory, as assessed by the Sternberg technique, was very significantly improved following 600 mg of Ginkgo biloba extract, as compared with the placebo. These results differentiate Ginkgo biloba extract from sedative and stimulant drugs and suggest a specific effect on memory processes.

  3. Short-term scheduling of reactive power controllers

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Yingyi; Liao Csongming

    1995-05-01

    A two-level approach is presented to solve the problem of optimal short-term (one day) scheduling of reactive power controllers in this paper. The entire problem is decomposed into two levels: the master and the slave levels. The master level deals with minimization of the depreciation cost of compensators and EHV transformer taps in order to reduce the control action for compensators and EHV transformer taps while satisfying operating constraints. The slave level treats minimization of capitalized MW losses while satisfying system security constraints. The slave level also treats OLTCs and determines scheduling of the generator voltages. These two levels interact through linear constraints in the iteration process. A practical 265-bus system, namely Taiwan Power System, are used to serve as a sample to show the applicability of the presented approach.

  4. Short Term Electricity Storage For CPV Power Plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desrumaux, C.; Auberton, A.; Gombert, A.; Heile, I.; Röttger, M.

    2011-12-01

    An initial analysis of short term electricity storage for CPV power plants is performed with respect to its functions "power output smoothing" and "end of day energy production". First, the different storage technologies are shortly discussed. Then charge and discharge of the storage device of a model CPV plant is studied by using measured DNI data for selected days at a good CPV location. The selection of days is done according to their average DNI per day classification. The power to energy ratio of the storage, the allowed minimum state of charge (SOC) and the requested power from the storage are the varying parameters of the study. With increasing capacity of the storage, the requirements can be best fulfilled with the used initial storage strategies but the power output is shifted significantly.

  5. Auditory short-term memory in the primate auditory cortex.

    PubMed

    Scott, Brian H; Mishkin, Mortimer

    2016-06-01

    Sounds are fleeting, and assembling the sequence of inputs at the ear into a coherent percept requires auditory memory across various time scales. Auditory short-term memory comprises at least two components: an active ׳working memory' bolstered by rehearsal, and a sensory trace that may be passively retained. Working memory relies on representations recalled from long-term memory, and their rehearsal may require phonological mechanisms unique to humans. The sensory component, passive short-term memory (pSTM), is tractable to study in nonhuman primates, whose brain architecture and behavioral repertoire are comparable to our own. This review discusses recent advances in the behavioral and neurophysiological study of auditory memory with a focus on single-unit recordings from macaque monkeys performing delayed-match-to-sample (DMS) tasks. Monkeys appear to employ pSTM to solve these tasks, as evidenced by the impact of interfering stimuli on memory performance. In several regards, pSTM in monkeys resembles pitch memory in humans, and may engage similar neural mechanisms. Neural correlates of DMS performance have been observed throughout the auditory and prefrontal cortex, defining a network of areas supporting auditory STM with parallels to that supporting visual STM. These correlates include persistent neural firing, or a suppression of firing, during the delay period of the memory task, as well as suppression or (less commonly) enhancement of sensory responses when a sound is repeated as a ׳match' stimulus. Auditory STM is supported by a distributed temporo-frontal network in which sensitivity to stimulus history is an intrinsic feature of auditory processing. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory.

  6. Acute psychological stress induces short-term variable immune response.

    PubMed

    Breen, Michael S; Beliakova-Bethell, Nadejda; Mujica-Parodi, Lilianne R; Carlson, Joshua M; Ensign, Wayne Y; Woelk, Christopher H; Rana, Brinda K

    2016-03-01

    In spite of advances in understanding the cross-talk between the peripheral immune system and the brain, the molecular mechanisms underlying the rapid adaptation of the immune system to an acute psychological stressor remain largely unknown. Conventional approaches to classify molecular factors mediating these responses have targeted relatively few biological measurements or explored cross-sectional study designs, and therefore have restricted characterization of stress-immune interactions. This exploratory study analyzed transcriptional profiles and flow cytometric data of peripheral blood leukocytes with physiological (endocrine, autonomic) measurements collected throughout the sequence of events leading up to, during, and after short-term exposure to physical danger in humans. Immediate immunomodulation to acute psychological stress was defined as a short-term selective up-regulation of natural killer (NK) cell-associated cytotoxic and IL-12 mediated signaling genes that correlated with increased cortisol, catecholamines and NK cells into the periphery. In parallel, we observed down-regulation of innate immune toll-like receptor genes and genes of the MyD88-dependent signaling pathway. Correcting gene expression for an influx of NK cells revealed a molecular signature specific to the adrenal cortex. Subsequently, focusing analyses on discrete groups of coordinately expressed genes (modules) throughout the time-series revealed immune stress responses in modules associated to immune/defense response, response to wounding, cytokine production, TCR signaling and NK cell cytotoxicity which differed between males and females. These results offer a spring-board for future research towards improved treatment of stress-related disease including the impact of stress on cardiovascular and autoimmune disorders, and identifies an immune mechanism by which vulnerabilities to these diseases may be gender-specific.

  7. Acute psychological stress induces short-term variable immune response.

    PubMed

    Breen, Michael S; Beliakova-Bethell, Nadejda; Mujica-Parodi, Lilianne R; Carlson, Joshua M; Ensign, Wayne Y; Woelk, Christopher H; Rana, Brinda K

    2016-03-01

    In spite of advances in understanding the cross-talk between the peripheral immune system and the brain, the molecular mechanisms underlying the rapid adaptation of the immune system to an acute psychological stressor remain largely unknown. Conventional approaches to classify molecular factors mediating these responses have targeted relatively few biological measurements or explored cross-sectional study designs, and therefore have restricted characterization of stress-immune interactions. This exploratory study analyzed transcriptional profiles and flow cytometric data of peripheral blood leukocytes with physiological (endocrine, autonomic) measurements collected throughout the sequence of events leading up to, during, and after short-term exposure to physical danger in humans. Immediate immunomodulation to acute psychological stress was defined as a short-term selective up-regulation of natural killer (NK) cell-associated cytotoxic and IL-12 mediated signaling genes that correlated with increased cortisol, catecholamines and NK cells into the periphery. In parallel, we observed down-regulation of innate immune toll-like receptor genes and genes of the MyD88-dependent signaling pathway. Correcting gene expression for an influx of NK cells revealed a molecular signature specific to the adrenal cortex. Subsequently, focusing analyses on discrete groups of coordinately expressed genes (modules) throughout the time-series revealed immune stress responses in modules associated to immune/defense response, response to wounding, cytokine production, TCR signaling and NK cell cytotoxicity which differed between males and females. These results offer a spring-board for future research towards improved treatment of stress-related disease including the impact of stress on cardiovascular and autoimmune disorders, and identifies an immune mechanism by which vulnerabilities to these diseases may be gender-specific. PMID:26476140

  8. Near-fault earthquake ground motion prediction by a high-performance spectral element numerical code

    SciTech Connect

    Paolucci, Roberto; Stupazzini, Marco

    2008-07-08

    Near-fault effects have been widely recognised to produce specific features of earthquake ground motion, that cannot be reliably predicted by 1D seismic wave propagation modelling, used as a standard in engineering applications. These features may have a relevant impact on the structural response, especially in the nonlinear range, that is hard to predict and to be put in a design format, due to the scarcity of significant earthquake records and of reliable numerical simulations. In this contribution a pilot study is presented for the evaluation of seismic ground-motions in the near-fault region, based on a high-performance numerical code for 3D seismic wave propagation analyses, including the seismic fault, the wave propagation path and the near-surface geological or topographical irregularity. For this purpose, the software package GeoELSE is adopted, based on the spectral element method. The set-up of the numerical benchmark of 3D ground motion simulation in the valley of Grenoble (French Alps) is chosen to study the effect of the complex interaction between basin geometry and radiation mechanism on the variability of earthquake ground motion.

  9. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L.M.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

  10. [Comment on “A misuse of public funds: U.N. support for geomagnetic forecasting of earthquakes and meteorological disasters”] Comment: Earthquake prediction is worthy of study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freund, Friedmann

    Imagine a densely populated region in the contiguous United States haunted over the past 25 years by nine big earthquakes of magnitudes 5.5 to 7.8, killing hundreds of thousands of people. Imagine further that in a singularly glorious instance a daring prediction effort, based on some scientifically poorly understood natural phenomena, led to the evacuation of a major city just 13 hours before an M = 7.8 earthquake hit. None of the inhabitants of the evacuated city died, while in the surrounding, nonevacuated communities 240,000 were killed and about 600,000 seriously injured. Imagine at last that, tragically, the prediction of the next earthquake of a similar magnitude failed, as well as the following one, at great loss of life.If this were an American scenario, the scientific community and the public at large would buzz with the glory of that one successful, life-saving earthquake prediction effort and with praise for American ingenuity The fact that the next predictions failed would likely have energized the public, the political bodies, the scientists, and the funding agencies alike to go after a recalcitrant Earth, to poke into her deep secrets with all means at the scientists' disposal, and to retrieve even the faintest signals that our restless planet may send out prior to unleashing her deadly punches.

  11. The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (M S=7) by the ``criterion of activity in quiescence''

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng-Jian, Guo; Bao-Yan, Qin

    2000-07-01

    Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940 1945, 1958 1961 and 1979 1986. Using the “criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.

  12. Scientific investigation of macroscopic phenomena before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and its implication to prediction and tectonics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, F.; Yang, Y.; Pan, B.

    2013-12-01

    tectonic/faults near the epicentral area. According to the statistic relationship, VI-VII degree intensity in meizoseismal area is equivalent to Magnitude 5. That implied that, generally, macroscopic anomaly easily occurred before earthquakes with magnitude more than 5 in the near epicenteral area. This information can be as pendent clues of earthquake occurrence in a tectonic area. Based on the above scientific investigation and statistic research we recalled other historical earthquakes occurred from 1937 to 1996 in Chinese mainland and got the similar results (Compilation of macroscopic anomalies before earthquakes, published by seismological press, 2009). This can be as one of important basic data to earthquake prediction. This work was supported by NSFC project No. 41274061.

  13. Short-Term International Internship Experiences for Future Teachers and Other Child Development Professionals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Kari Knutson; Gonzalez, Amber M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines outcomes associated with participation in short-term, international internship experiences. Results suggest short-term international internship experiences contribute to rich personal and professional development outcomes. Findings highlight participant challenges associated with initial internship experiences, professional…

  14. Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California

    PubMed Central

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Shebalin, P. N.; Zaliapin, I. V.

    2002-01-01

    This article explores the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on spatio-temporal variations of seismicity. Previous approaches to this problem have used precursory seismicity patterns that precede large earthquakes with “intermediate” lead times of years. Examples include increases of earthquake correlation range and increases of seismic activity. Here, we look for a renormalization of these patterns that would reduce the predictive lead time from years to months. We demonstrate a combination of renormalized patterns that preceded within 1–7 months five large (M ≥ 6.4) strike-slip earthquakes in southeastern California since 1960. An algorithm for short-term prediction is formulated. The algorithm is self-adapting to the level of seismicity: it can be transferred without readaptation from earthquake to earthquake and from area to area. Exhaustive retrospective tests show that the algorithm is stable to variations of its adjustable elements. This finding encourages further tests in other regions. The final test, as always, should be advance prediction. The suggested algorithm has a simple qualitative interpretation in terms of deformations around a soon-to-break fault: the blocks surrounding that fault began to move as a whole. A more general interpretation comes from the phenomenon of self-similarity since our premonitory patterns retain their predictive power after renormalization to smaller spatial and temporal scales. The suggested algorithm is designed to provide a short-term approximation to an intermediate-term prediction. It remains unclear whether it could be used independently. It seems worthwhile to explore similar renormalizations for other premonitory seismicity patterns. PMID:12482945

  15. Short-term optimal operation of water systems using ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raso, L.; Schwanenberg, D.; van de Giesen, N. C.; van Overloop, P. J.

    2014-09-01

    Short-term water system operation can be realized using Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is a method for operational management of complex dynamic systems. Applied to open water systems, MPC provides integrated, optimal, and proactive management, when forecasts are available. Notwithstanding these properties, if forecast uncertainty is not properly taken into account, the system performance can critically deteriorate. Ensemble forecast is a way to represent short-term forecast uncertainty. An ensemble forecast is a set of possible future trajectories of a meteorological or hydrological system. The growing ensemble forecasts’ availability and accuracy raises the question on how to use them for operational management. The theoretical innovation presented here is the use of ensemble forecasts for optimal operation. Specifically, we introduce a tree based approach. We called the new method Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). In TB-MPC, a tree is used to set up a Multistage Stochastic Programming, which finds a different optimal strategy for each branch and enhances the adaptivity to forecast uncertainty. Adaptivity reduces the sensitivity to wrong forecasts and improves the operational performance. TB-MPC is applied to the operational management of Salto Grande reservoir, located at the border between Argentina and Uruguay, and compared to other methods.

  16. Sensitivity of Short-Term Weather Forecasts to Assimilated AIRS Data: Implications for NPOESS Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; McCarty, Will; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

    2009-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is acting as a heritage and risk reduction instrument for the Cross-track lnfrared Sounder (CrIS) to be flown aboard the NPP and NPOESS satellites. The hyperspectral nature of AIRS and CrIS provides high-quality soundings that, along with their asynoptic observation time over North America, make them attractive sources to fill the spatial and temporal data voids in upper air temperature and moisture measurements for use in data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Observations from AlRS can be assimilated either as direct radiances or retrieved thermodynamic profiles, and the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used both data types to improve short-term (0-48h), regional forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to share SPORT'S experiences using AlRS radiances and retrieved profiles in regional data assimilation activities by showing that proper handling of issues-including cloud contamination and land emissivity characterization-are necessary to produce optimal analyses and forecasts.

  17. Short-Term Effects of Midseason Coach Turnover on Team Performance in Soccer

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Balduck, Anne-Line; Buelens, Marc; Philippaerts, Renaat

    2010-01-01

    The present study addressed the issue of short-term performance effects of midseason coach turnover in soccer. The goal of this study was to examine this effect on subsequent short-term team performance. The purposes of this study were to (a) examine whether midseason coach turnover improved results in the short term, and (b) examine how team…

  18. 47 CFR 1.9035 - Short-term de facto transfer leasing arrangements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Short-term de facto transfer leasing... PROCEDURE Spectrum Leasing General Policies and Procedures § 1.9035 Short-term de facto transfer leasing...) and a spectrum lessee may enter into a short-term de facto transfer leasing arrangement in which...

  19. 22 CFR 71.11 - Short-term full diet program.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Short-term full diet program. 71.11 Section 71.... Nationals Incarcerated Abroad § 71.11 Short-term full diet program. (a) Eligibility criteria. A prisoner is considered eligible for the short-term full diet program under the following general criteria: (1)...

  20. 22 CFR 71.11 - Short-term full diet program.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Short-term full diet program. 71.11 Section 71.... Nationals Incarcerated Abroad § 71.11 Short-term full diet program. (a) Eligibility criteria. A prisoner is considered eligible for the short-term full diet program under the following general criteria: (1)...