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Sample records for short-term earthquake prediction

  1. Is Earthquake Prediction Possible from Short-Term Foreshocks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Avlonitis, Markos; Di Fiore, Boris; Minadakis, George

    2015-04-01

    Foreshocks preceding mainshocks in the short-term, ranging from minutes to a few months prior the mainshock, have been known from several decades ago. Understanding the generation mechanisms of foreshocks was supported by seismicity observations and statistics, laboratory experiments, theoretical considerations and simulation results. However, important issues remain open. For example, (1) How foreshocks are defined? (2) Why only some mainshocks are preceded by foreshocks but others do not? (2) Is the mainshock size dependent on some attributes of the foreshock sequence? (3) Is that possible to discriminate foreshocks from other seismicity styles (e.g. swarms, aftershocks)? To approach possible replies to these issues we reviewed about 400 papers, reports, books and other documents referring to foreshocks as well as to relevant laboratory experiments. We found that different foreshock definitions are used by different authors. We found also that the ratio of mainshocks preceded by foreshocks increases with the increase of monitoring capabilities and that foreshock activity is dependent on source mechanical properties and favoured by material heterogeneity. Also, the mainshock size does not depend on the largest foreshock size but rather by the foreshock area. Seismicity statistics may account for an effective discrimination of foreshocks from other seismicity styles since during foreshock activities the seismicity rate increases with the inverse of time and, at the same, the b-value of the G-R relationship as a rule drops significantly. Our literature survey showed that only the last years the seismicity catalogs organized in some well monitored areas are adequately complete to search for foreshock activities. Therefore, we investigated for a set of "good foreshock examples" covering a wide range of mainshock magnitudes from 4.5 to 9 in Japan (Tohoku 2011), S. California, Italy (including L' Aquila 2009) and Greece. The good examples used indicate that foreshocks

  2. Reported geomagnetic and ionospheric precursors to earthquakes: Summary, reanalysis, and implications for short-term prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, J. N.; Masci, F.; Love, J. J.; Johnston, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural phenomena on earth, causing high deaths tolls and large financial losses each year. If precursory signals could be regularly and reliably identified, then the hazardous effects of earthquakes might be mitigated. Unfortunately, it is not at all clear that short-term earthquake prediction is either possible or practical, and the entire subject remains controversial. Still, many claims of successful earthquake precursor observations have been published, and among these are reports of geomagnetic and ionospheric anomalies prior to earthquake occurrence. Given the importance of earthquake prediction, reports of earthquake precursors need to be analyzed and checked for reliability and reproducibility. We have done this for numerous such reports, including the Loma Prieta, Guam, Hector Mine, Tohoku, and L'Aquila earthquakes. We have found that these reported earthquake precursors: 1) often lack time series observations from long before and long after the earthquakes and near and far from the earthquakes, 2) are not statistically correlated with the earthquakes and do not relate to the earthquake source mechanisms, 3) are not followed by similar, but much larger, signals during the subsequent earthquake when the primary energy release occurs, 4) are nonuniform in that they occur at different spatial and temporal regimes relative to the earthquakes and with different magnitudes and frequencies, and 5) can often be explained by other non-earthquake related mechanisms or normal geomagnetic activity. Thus we conclude that these reported precursors could not be used to predict the time or location of the earthquakes. Based on our findings, we suggest a protocol for examining precursory reports, something that will help guide future research in this area.

  3. Four Examples of Short-Term and Imminent Prediction of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    zeng, zuoxun; Liu, Genshen; Wu, Dabin; Sibgatulin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    We show here 4 examples of short-term and imminent prediction of earthquakes in China last year. They are Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2), Minxian Earthquake(Ms6.6), Nantou Earthquake (Ms6.7) and Dujiangyan Earthquake (Ms4.1) Imminent Prediction of Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2) Based on the comprehensive analysis of the prediction of Victor Sibgatulin using natural electromagnetic pulse anomalies and the prediction of Song Song and Song Kefu using observation of a precursory halo, and an observation for the locations of a degasification of the earth in the Naqu, Tibet by Zeng Zuoxun himself, the first author made a prediction for an earthquake around Ms 6 in 10 days in the area of the degasification point (31.5N, 89.0 E) at 0:54 of May 8th, 2013. He supplied another degasification point (31N, 86E) for the epicenter prediction at 8:34 of the same day. At 18:54:30 of May 15th, 2013, an earthquake of Ms5.2 occurred in the Nima County, Naqu, China. Imminent Prediction of Minxian Earthquake (Ms6.6) At 7:45 of July 22nd, 2013, an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City (34.5N, 104.2E), Gansu province with magnitude of Ms6.6. We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method. 9 channels or 15 channels anomalous components - time curves can be outputted from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors. These components include geomagnetism, geoelectricity, crust stresses, resonance, crust inclination. When we compress the time axis, the outputted curves become different geometric images. The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions. The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region. According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquake, we usually get the fingerprint 6 days before the corresponding earthquakes. The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerpringts from the same

  4. Foreshock Sequences and Short-Term Earthquake Predictability on East Pacific Rise Transform Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, J. J.; Boettcher, M. S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2004-12-01

    A predominant view of continental seismicity postulates that all earthquakes initiate in a similar manner regardless of their eventual size and that earthquake triggering can be described by an Endemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [e.g. Ogata, 1988, Helmstetter and Sorenette 2002]. These null hypotheses cannot be rejected as an explanation for the relative abundances of foreshocks and aftershocks to large earthquakes in California [Helmstetter et al., 2003]. An alternative location for testing this hypothesis is mid-ocean ridge transform faults (RTFs), which have many properties that are distinct from continental transform faults: most plate motion is accommodated aseismically, many large earthquakes are slow events enriched in low-frequency radiation, and the seismicity shows depleted aftershock sequences and high foreshock activity. Here we use the 1996-2001 NOAA-PMEL hydroacoustic seismicity catalog for equatorial East Pacific Rise transform faults to show that the foreshock/aftershock ratio is two orders of magnitude greater than the ETAS prediction based on global RTF aftershock abundances. We can thus reject the null hypothesis that there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks on RTFs. We further demonstrate (retrospectively) that foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to achieve statistically significant short-term prediction of large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 5.4) with good spatial (15-km) and temporal (1-hr) resolution using the NOAA-PMEL catalogs. Our very simplistic approach produces a large number of false alarms, but it successfully predicts the majority (70%) of M≥5.4 earthquakes while covering only a tiny fraction (0.15%) of the total potential space-time volume with alarms. Therefore, it achieves a large probability gain (about a factor of 500) over random guessing, despite not using any near field data. The predictability of large EPR transform earthquakes suggests

  5. From a physical approach to earthquake prediction, towards long and short term warnings ahead of large earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefansson, R.; Bonafede, M.

    2012-04-01

    For 20 years the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was a test site for multinational earthquake prediction research, partly bridging the gap between laboratory tests samples, and the huge transform zones of the Earth. The approach was to explore the physics of processes leading up to large earthquakes. The book Advances in Earthquake Prediction, Research and Risk Mitigation, by R. Stefansson (2011), published by Springer/PRAXIS, and an article in the August issue of the BSSA by Stefansson, M. Bonafede and G. Gudmundsson (2011) contain a good overview of the findings, and more references, as well as examples of partially successful long and short term warnings based on such an approach. Significant findings are: Earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago left scars in the crust, expressed in volumes of heterogeneity that demonstrate the size of their faults. Rheology and stress heterogeneity within these volumes are significantly variable in time and space. Crustal processes in and near such faults may be observed by microearthquake information decades before the sudden onset of a new large earthquake. High pressure fluids of mantle origin may in response to strain, especially near plate boundaries, migrate upward into the brittle/elastic crust to play a significant role in modifying crustal conditions on a long and short term. Preparatory processes of various earthquakes can not be expected to be the same. We learn about an impending earthquake by observing long term preparatory processes at the fault, finding a constitutive relationship that governs the processes, and then extrapolating that relationship into near space and future. This is a deterministic approach in earthquake prediction research. Such extrapolations contain many uncertainties. However the long time pattern of observations of the pre-earthquake fault process will help us to put probability constraints on our extrapolations and our warnings. The approach described is different from the usual

  6. On the short-term earthquake prediction: renormalization algorithm and observational evidence in S. California, E. Mediterranean, and Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keilis-Borok, V.; Shebalin, P.; Zaliapin, I.; Novikova, O.; Gabrielov, A.

    2002-12-01

    Our point of departure is provided by premonitory seismicity patterns found in models and observations. They reflect increase of earthquake correlation range and seismic activity within "intermediate" lead-time of years before a strong earthquake. A combination of these patterns, in renormalized definition, precedes within months eight out of nine strong earthquakes in S. California, E. Mediterranean, and Japan. We suggest on that basis a hypothetical short-term prediction algorithm, to be tested by advance prediction. The algorithm is self-adapting and can be transferred without readaptation from earthquake to earthquake and from area to area. If confirmed, it will have a simple, albeit non-unique, qualitative interpretation. The suggested algorithm is designed to provide a short-term approximation to an intermediate-term prediction. It remains not clear, whether it could be used independently.

  7. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  8. Short-term predictions in forex trading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muriel, A.

    2004-12-01

    Using a kinetic equation that is used to model turbulence (Physica A, 1985-1988, Physica D, 2001-2003), we redefine variables to model the time evolution of the foreign exchange rates of three major currencies. We display live and predicted data for one period of trading in October, 2003.

  9. Short-term earthquake probabilities during the L'Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falcone, G.; Murru, M.; Zhuang, J.; Console, R.

    2014-12-01

    We compare the forecasting performance of several statistical models, which are used to describe the occurrence process of earthquakes, in forecasting the short-term earthquake probabilities during the occurrence of the L'Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009. These models include the Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) model and different versions of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We used the information gains corresponding to the Poisson and binomial scores to evaluate the performance of these models. It is shown that all ETAS models work better than the PPE model. However, when comparing the different types of the ETAS models, the one with the same fixed exponent coefficient α = 2.3 for both the productivity function and the scaling factor in the spatial response function, performs better in forecasting the active aftershock sequence than the other models with different exponent coefficients when the Poisson score is adopted. These latter models perform only better when a lower magnitude threshold of 2.0 and the binomial score are used. The reason is likely due to the fact that the catalog does not contain an event of magnitude similar to the L'Aquila main shock (Mw 6.3) in the training period (April 16, 2005 to March 15, 2009). In this case the a-value is under-estimated and thus also the forecasted seismicity is underestimated when the productivity function is extrapolated to high magnitudes. These results suggest that the training catalog used for estimating the model parameters should include earthquakes of similar magnitudes as the main shock when forecasting seismicity is during an aftershock sequences.

  10. Power system very short-term load prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Trudnowski, D.J.; Johnson, J.M.; Whitney, P.

    1997-02-01

    A fundamental objective of a power-system operating and control scheme is to maintain a match between the system`s overall real-power load and generation. To accurately maintain this match, modern energy management systems require estimates of the future total system load. Several strategies and tools are available for estimating system load. Nearly all of these estimate the future load in 1-hour steps over several hours (or time frames very close to this). While hourly load estimates are very useful for many operation and control decisions, more accurate estimates at closer intervals would also be valuable. This is especially true for emerging Area Generation Control (AGC) strategies such as look-ahead AGC. For these short-term estimation applications, future load estimates out to several minutes at intervals of 1 to 5 minutes are required. The currently emerging operation and control strategies being developed by the BPA are dependent on accurate very short-term load estimates. To meet this need, the BPA commissioned the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Montana Tech (an affiliate of the University of Montana) to develop an accurate load prediction algorithm and computer codes that automatically update and can reliably perform in a closed-loop controller for the BPA system. The requirements include accurate load estimation in 5-minute steps out to 2 hours. This report presents the results of this effort and includes: a methodology and algorithms for short-term load prediction that incorporates information from a general hourly forecaster; specific algorithm parameters for implementing the predictor in the BPA system; performance and sensitivity studies of the algorithms on BPA-supplied data; an algorithm for filtering power system load samples as a precursor to inputting into the predictor; and FORTRAN 77 subroutines for implementing the algorithms.

  11. Comparison of Short-term and Long-term Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2004-12-01

    Many earthquakes are triggered in part by preceding events. Aftershocks are the most obvious examples, but many large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones. The large fluctuations of seismicity rate due to earthquake interactions thus provide a way to improve earthquake forecasting significantly. We have developed a model to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in Southern California, using the Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence model [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988]. The forecasted seismicity rate is the sum of a constant external loading and of the aftershocks of all past earthquakes. The background rate is estimated by smoothing past seismicity. Each earthquake triggers aftershocks with a rate that increases exponentially with its magnitude and which decreases with time following Omori's law. We use an isotropic kernel to model the spatial distribution of aftershocks for small (M≤5.5) mainshocks, and a smoothing of the location of early aftershocks for larger mainshocks. The model also assumes that all earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with a unifom b-value. We use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the model parameters and tests the short-term and long-term forecasts. A retrospective test using a daily update of the forecasts between 1985/1/1 and 2004/3/10 shows that the short-term model decreases the uncertainty of an earthquake occurrence by a factor of about 10.

  12. Human short-term spatial memory: precision predicts capacity.

    PubMed

    Banta Lavenex, Pamela; Boujon, Valérie; Ndarugendamwo, Angélique; Lavenex, Pierre

    2015-03-01

    Here, we aimed to determine the capacity of human short-term memory for allocentric spatial information in a real-world setting. Young adults were tested on their ability to learn, on a trial-unique basis, and remember over a 1-min interval the location(s) of 1, 3, 5, or 7 illuminating pads, among 23 pads distributed in a 4m×4m arena surrounded by curtains on three sides. Participants had to walk to and touch the pads with their foot to illuminate the goal locations. In contrast to the predictions from classical slot models of working memory capacity limited to a fixed number of items, i.e., Miller's magical number 7 or Cowan's magical number 4, we found that the number of visited locations to find the goals was consistently about 1.6 times the number of goals, whereas the number of correct choices before erring and the number of errorless trials varied with memory load even when memory load was below the hypothetical memory capacity. In contrast to resource models of visual working memory, we found no evidence that memory resources were evenly distributed among unlimited numbers of items to be remembered. Instead, we found that memory for even one individual location was imprecise, and that memory performance for one location could be used to predict memory performance for multiple locations. Our findings are consistent with a theoretical model suggesting that the precision of the memory for individual locations might determine the capacity of human short-term memory for spatial information.

  13. Reducing variability in short term orbital lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebschull, Christopher; Flegel, Sven Kevin; Braun, Vitali; Gelhaus, Johannes; Möckel, Marek; Wiedemann, Carsten; Vörsmann, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Within the last year three major re-entries occurred. The satellites UARS, ROSAT and Phobos-Grunt entered Earth's atmosphere with fragments reaching the surface. Due to a number of uncertainties in propagating an object's trajectory the exact place and time of a satellite's re-entry is hard to determine. Major influences when predicting the re-entry time are the changing precision of the available orbital data, the satellite's ballistic coefficient, the activity of the sun which influences the Earth's atmosphere and the underlying quality of the atmospheric model. In this paper a method is presented which can reduce the variability in short-term orbital lifetime prediction induced by fluctuating orbital data accuracies. A re-entry campaign is used as a reference for this purpose. For a window of a few weeks before the re-entry the position data of a synthetic object is disturbed considering different degrees of orbital data errors. As a result different predictions will exist for the generated position data of a given day. Using a regression algorithm on the available data an average position is obtained, which is then used for the orbital lifetime prediction. The effect of this measure is a more consistent prediction of the orbital lifetime. The paper concludes with the comparison of the generated re-entry windows in various test cases for the original and the averaged data.

  14. Short-term wind speed predictions with machine learning techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghorbani, M. A.; Khatibi, R.; FazeliFard, M. H.; Naghipour, L.; Makarynskyy, O.

    2016-02-01

    Hourly wind speed forecasting is presented by a modeling study with possible applications to practical problems including farming wind energy, aircraft safety and airport operations. Modeling techniques employed in this paper for such short-term predictions are based on the machine learning techniques of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic expression programming (GEP). Recorded values of wind speed were used, which comprised 8 years of collected data at the Kersey site, Colorado, USA. The January data over the first 7 years (2005-2011) were used for model training; and the January data for 2012 were used for model testing. A number of model structures were investigated for the validation of the robustness of these two techniques. The prediction results were compared with those of a multiple linear regression (MLR) method and with the Persistence method developed for the data. The model performances were evaluated using the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and Akaike information criterion. The results indicate that forecasting wind speed is feasible using past records of wind speed alone, but the maximum lead time for the data was found to be 14 h. The results show that different techniques would lead to different results, where the choice between them is not easy. Thus, decision making has to be informed of these modeling results and decisions should be arrived at on the basis of an understanding of inherent uncertainties. The results show that both GEP and ANN are equally credible selections and even MLR should not be dismissed, as it has its uses.

  15. Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency

    PubMed Central

    Alter, Adam L.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

    2006-01-01

    Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of $1,000 yielded a profit of $112 more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives. PMID:16754871

  16. Short-term earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b-values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulia, Laura; Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    Observations from laboratory experiments measuring acoustic emissions during loading cycles in pressurized rock samples have repeatedly suggested that small events in the precursory phase of an impending large event change in their relative size distribution. In particular, they highlight a systematic b-value decrease during the stress increase period before the main event. A number of large natural events, but not all of them, have been shown to have a precursory decrease in the b-value at very different time scales, from months to a few days before the subsequent mainshock. At present short term-forecast models such as STEP and ETAS consider the generic probability that an event can trigger subsequent seismicity in the near field; the rate increasing during the foreshock sequences can offer a probability gain for a significant earthquake to happen. While the probability gain of a stationary Poissonian background is substantial, selected case studies have shown through cost-benefit analysis that the absolute probability remains too low to warrant actions. This was shown for example by van Stiphout et al. (2010, GRL), for the 2009 a Mw 6.3 earthquake that hit the city of L'Aquila (Central Italy) after three months of foreshock activity. We here analyze the probability gain of a novel generation of short term forecast models which considers both the change in the seismicity rates and the temporal changes in the b-value. Changes in earthquake probability are then translated also into time-dependent hazard and risk. Preliminary results suggest that the precursory b-value decrease in the L'Aquila case results in an additional probability increase of a M6.3 event of about a factor of 30-50, which then surpasses the cost-benefit threshold for short-term evacuation in selected cases.

  17. Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes.

    PubMed

    Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M A; Johnson, Neil F

    2014-01-10

    Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

  18. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  19. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

    PubMed Central

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. Methods and Results We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (P<0.01). These results were consistent by sex. Conclusions These findings highlight potential shortcomings of using short-term risk tools for primary prevention strategies because a substantial proportion of Peruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. PMID:26254303

  20. On Earthquake Prediction in Japan

    PubMed Central

    UYEDA, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan’s National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author’s view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology — on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors. PMID:24213204

  1. On earthquake prediction in Japan.

    PubMed

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2013-01-01

    Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismographs networks, which are not generally effective for detecting precursors since many of precursors are non-seismic. The precursor research has never been supported appropriately because the project has always been run by a group of seismologists who, in the present author's view, are mainly interested in securing funds for seismology - on pretense of prediction. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this decision has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. On top of the National Project, there are other government projects, not formally but vaguely related to earthquake prediction, that consume many orders of magnitude more funds. They are also un-interested in short-term prediction. Financially, they are giants and the National Project is a dwarf. Thus, in Japan now, there is practically no support for short-term prediction research. Recently, however, substantial progress has been made in real short-term prediction by scientists of diverse disciplines. Some promising signs are also arising even from cooperation with private sectors.

  2. Short-term earthquake forecasting based on an epidemic clustering model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    . The implementation of this step could be problematic for seismicity characterized by long-term recurrence. However, the separation of the data base of the data base collected in the past in two separate sections (one on which the best fit of the parameters is carried out, and the other on which the hypothesis is tested) can be a viable solution, known as retrospective-forward testing. In this study we show examples of application of the above mentioned concepts to the analysis of the Italian catalog of instrumental seismicity, making use of an epidemic algorithm developed to model short-term clustering features. This model, for which a precursory anomaly is just the occurrence of seismic activity, doesn't need the retrospective categorization of earthquakes in terms of foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. It was introduced more than 15 years ago and tested so far in a number of real cases. It is now being run by several seismological centers around the world in forward real-time mode for testing purposes.

  3. Very short-term earthquake precursors from GPS signal interference: Case studies on moderate and large earthquakes in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, Yu-Lien; Cheng, Kai-Chien; Wang, Wei-Hau; Yu, Shui-Beih

    2016-04-01

    We set up a GPS network with 17 Continuous GPS (CGPS) stations in southwestern Taiwan to monitor real-time crustal deformation. We found that systematic perturbations in GPS signals occurred just a few minutes prior to the occurrence of several moderate and large earthquakes, including the recent 2013 Nantou (ML = 6.5) and Rueisuei (ML = 6.4) earthquakes in Taiwan. The anomalous pseudorange readings were several millimeters higher or lower than those in the background time period. These systematic anomalies were found as a result of interference of GPS L-band signals by electromagnetic emissions (EMs) prior to the mainshocks. The EMs may occur in the form of harmonic or ultra-wide-band radiation and can be generated during the formation of Mode I cracks at the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We estimated the directivity of the likely EM sources by calculating the inner product of the position vector from a GPS station to a given satellite and the vector of anomalous ground motions recorded by the GPS. The results showed that the predominant inner product generally occurred when the satellite was in the direction either toward or away from the epicenter with respect to the GPS network. Our findings suggest that the GPS network may serve as a powerful tool to detect very short-term earthquake precursors and presumably to locate a large earthquake before it occurs.

  4. Short-Term Price Prediction and the Selection of Indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka-Yamawaki, M.; Tokuoka, S.; Awaji, K.

    Although the prediction of the future price is known to be hard due to the strong randomness inherent in the price fluctuation, intra-day price movements are expected to be predicted by reading out the patterns observed in tick-wise price motions. Our first task on this line of thought is to identify the set of effective variables suitable for studying the problem. We have first constructed a price prediction generator that computes the best prediction by reading the data tick by tick. We report in this article the effect of the adaptive choice of the best combination of technical indicators out of ten popular indicators, and also the result of using a set of novel dimensionless dynamical indicators constructed from the local values of derivatives and the second derivatives of the price times series. We have obtained a good performance of nearly 70 percent of correctly predicted direction of motion at 10 ticks ahead of the prediction time by means of adaptive choice of the technical indicators, and even better performance in the second attempt of using the two dimensionless dynamical indicators.

  5. Very short-term earthquake precursors from GPS signal interference based on the 2013 Nantou and Rueisuei earthquakes, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, Yu-Lien; Cheng, Kai-Chien; Wang, Wei-Hau; Yu, Shui-Beih

    2015-12-01

    We set up a GPS network with 17 Continuous GPS (CGPS) stations in southwestern Taiwan to monitor real-time crustal deformation. We found that systematic perturbations in GPS signals occurred just a few minutes prior to the 2013 Nantou (ML = 6.5) and Rueisuei (ML = 6.4) earthquakes in Taiwan. The anomalous pseudorange readings were several millimeters higher or lower than those in the background time period. These systematic anomalies were found as a result of interference of GPS L-band signals by electromagnetic emissions (EMs) prior to the mainshocks. The EMs may occur in the form of harmonic or ultra-wide-band radiation and can be generated during the formation of Mode I cracks at the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We estimated the directivity of the likely EM sources by calculating the inner product of the position vector from a GPS station to a given satellite and the vector of anomalous ground motions recorded by the GPS. The results showed that the predominant inner product generally occurred when the satellite was in the direction either toward or away from the epicenter with respect to the GPS network. Our findings suggest that the GPS network may serve as a powerful tool to detect very short-term earthquake precursors and presumably to locate a large earthquake before it occurs. Nevertheless, a direct measurement of EMs at the site of the GPS array is required in future studies to confirm this hypothesis.

  6. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    SciTech Connect

    Hayakawa, Masashi

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  7. Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.

    PubMed

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M

    2016-11-01

    The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.

  8. Earthquake catalogs for the 2017 Central and Eastern U.S. short-term seismic hazard model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mueller, Charles S.

    2017-01-01

    The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes long-term seismic hazard forecasts that are used in building codes. The hazard models usually consider only natural seismicity; non-tectonic (man-made) earthquakes are excluded because they are transitory or too small. In the past decade, however, thousands of earthquakes related to underground fluid injection have occurred in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS), and some have caused damage.  In response, the USGS is now also making short-term forecasts that account for the hazard from these induced earthquakes. Seismicity statistics are analyzed to develop recurrence models, accounting for catalog completeness. In the USGS hazard modeling methodology, earthquakes are counted on a map grid, recurrence models are applied to estimate the rates of future earthquakes in each grid cell, and these rates are combined with maximum-magnitude models and ground-motion models to compute the hazard The USGS published a forecast for the years 2016 and 2017.Here, we document the development of the seismicity catalogs for the 2017 CEUS short-term hazard model.  A uniform earthquake catalog is assembled by combining and winnowing pre-existing source catalogs. The initial, final, and supporting earthquake catalogs are made available here.

  9. Short-term memory predictions across the lifespan: monitoring span before and after conducting a task.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, Julie Marilyne; Moulin, Chris John Anthony; Souchay, Céline

    2016-06-17

    Our objective was to explore metamemory in short-term memory across the lifespan. Five age groups participated in this study: 3 groups of children (4-13 years old), and younger and older adults. We used a three-phase task: prediction-span-postdiction. For prediction and postdiction phases, participants reported with a Yes/No response if they could recall in order a series of images. For the span task, they had to actually recall such series. From 4 years old, children have some ability to monitor their short-term memory and are able to adjust their prediction after experiencing the task. However, accuracy still improves significantly until adolescence. Although the older adults had a lower span, they were as accurate as young adults in their evaluation, suggesting that metamemory is unimpaired for short-term memory tasks in older adults.

  10. The nature of earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lindh, A.G.

    1991-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least a decade that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. the reality is that earthquake prediction starts from the long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. Primitive long-term forecasts are clearly possible at this time on a few well-characterized fault systems. Tightly focuses monitoring experiments aimed at short-term prediction are already underway in Parkfield, California, and in the Tokai region in Japan; only time will tell how much progress will be possible. 

  11. Predicting Changes in Cultural Sensitivity among Students of Spanish during Short-Term Study Abroad

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinsen, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Short-term study abroad programs of less than a semester are becoming increasingly popular among undergraduate students in the United States. However, little research has examined the changes in students' cultural sensitivity through their participation in such programs or what factors may predict growth and improvement in such areas. This study…

  12. Serial-Order Short-Term Memory Predicts Vocabulary Development: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leclercq, Anne-Lise; Majerus, Steve

    2010-01-01

    Serial-order short-term memory (STM), as opposed to item STM, has been shown to be very consistently associated with lexical learning abilities in cross-sectional study designs. This study investigated longitudinal predictions between serial-order STM and vocabulary development. Tasks maximizing the temporary retention of either serial-order or…

  13. Multi-parameter observation of pre-earthquake signals and their potential for short -term earthquake forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalenda, Pavel; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Bobrovskiy, Vadim; Neumann, Libor; Boborykina, Olga; Nazarevych, Andrij; Šebela, Stanka; Kvetko, Július; Shen, Wen-Bin

    2013-04-01

    We present methodologies for the multi-parameter observations of pre-earthquake phenomena and their retrospective/prospective testing. The hypothesis that the strongest earthquakes depend on the global stress field leads to global observations and a multi-parameter and multi-sensors approach. In 2012 we performed coordinated tests of several geophysical and environmental parameters, which are associated with the earthquakes preparation processes, namely: 1) Rocks deformation measurements (Kalenda et al. 2012); 2) Subterranean non-stationary electric processes (Bobrovskij 2011); 3) superconducting gravimeters (SGs) records and broadband seismometers (BS) time series (Shen et al); and 4) satellite infra-red observations (10-13 μm) measured at the top of the atmosphere (Ouzounov et al , 2011). In the retrospective test for the two most recent major events in Asia: Wenchuan earthquake (2008,China) and the latest Tohoku earthquake/tsunami (2011, Japan) our combined analysis showed a coordinated appearance of anomalies in advance (days) that could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the earthquake preparation processes. In 2012 three internal retrospective alerts were issued in advance (days) associated with the following events: M7.7 Okhotsk sea of August 14; M7.3 Honshu EQ of December 7 and M7.1 Banda sea EQ on December 10. Not all observations were able to detect anomalies before the M 7.4 Guatemala EQ of November 11. We discuss the reliability of each observation, their time lag, ability to localize and estimate the magnitude of the main shock. References Bobrovskij V. (2011): Kamchatkian Subterranean Electric Operative Forerunners of Catastrophic Earthquake with M9, occurred close to Honshu Island 2011/03/11 . IUGG Meeting Melbourne, 2011. postrer. Kalenda P. et al. (2012): Tilts, global tectonics and earthquake prediction. SWB, London, 247pp. Ozounov D. et al. (2011): Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku

  14. Least squares support vector machine for short-term prediction of meteorological time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellit, A.; Pavan, A. Massi; Benghanem, M.

    2013-01-01

    The prediction of meteorological time series plays very important role in several fields. In this paper, an application of least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) for short-term prediction of meteorological time series (e.g. solar irradiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and pressure) is presented. In order to check the generalization capability of the LS-SVM approach, a K-fold cross-validation and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test have been carried out. A comparison between LS-SVM and different artificial neural network (ANN) architectures (recurrent neural network, multi-layered perceptron, radial basis function and probabilistic neural network) is presented and discussed. The comparison showed that the LS-SVM produced significantly better results than ANN architectures. It also indicates that LS-SVM provides promising results for short-term prediction of meteorological data.

  15. The short-term prediction of universal time and length of day using atmospheric angular momentum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Freedman, A. P.; Steppe, J. A.; Dickey, J. O.; Eubanks, T. M.; Sung, L.-Y.

    1994-01-01

    The ability to predict short-term variations in the Earth's rotation has gained importance in recent years owing to more precise spacecraft tracking requirements. Universal time (UT1), that component of the Earth's orientation corresponding to the rotation angle, can be measured by number of high-precision space geodetic techniques. A Kalman filter developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) optimally combines these different data sets and generates a smoothed times series and a set of predictions for UT1, as well as for additional Earth orientation components. These UT1 predictions utilize an empirically derived random walk stochastic model for the length of the day (LOD) and require frequent and up-to-date measurements of either UT1 or LOD to keep errors from quickly accumulating. Recent studies have shown that LOD variations are correlated with changes in the Earth's axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) over timescales of several years down to as little as 8 days. AAM estimates and forecasts out to 10 days are routinely available from meteorological analysis centers; these data can supplement geodetic measurements to improve the short-term prediction of LOD and have therefore been incorporated as independent data types in the JPL Kalman filter. We find that AAM and, to a lesser extent, AAM forecast data are extremely helpful in generating accurate near-real-time estimates of UT1 and LOD and in improving short-term predictions of these quantities out to about 10 days.

  16. Short-term prediction of wind power using EMD and chaotic theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Xueli; Jiang, Dongxiang; Zhao, Minghao; Liu, Chao

    2012-02-01

    Due to the strong non-linear, complexity and non-stationary characteristics of wind farm power, a hybrid prediction model with empirical mode decomposition (EMD), chaotic theory, and grey theory is constructed. The EMD is used to decompose the wind farm power into several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and one residual component. The grey forecasting model is used to predict the residual component. For the IMF components, identify their characteristics, if it is chaotic time series use largest Lyapunov exponent prediction method to predict. If not, use grey forecasting model to predict. Prediction results of residual component and all IMF components are aggregated to produce the ultimate predicted result for wind farm power. The ultimate predicted result shows that the proposed method has good prediction accuracy, can be used for short-term prediction of wind farm power.

  17. Prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying-guang

    2016-12-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to select an optimal threshold level to be used in the peak over threshold (POT) method for the prediction of short-term distributions of load extremes of offshore wind turbines. Such an optimal threshold level is found based on the estimation of the variance-to-mean ratio for the occurrence of peak values, which characterizes the Poisson assumption. A generalized Pareto distribution is then fitted to the extracted peaks over the optimal threshold level and the distribution parameters are estimated by the method of the maximum spacing estimation. This methodology is applied to estimate the short-term distributions of load extremes of the blade bending moment and the tower base bending moment at the mudline of a monopile-supported 5MW offshore wind turbine as an example. The accuracy of the POT method using the optimal threshold level is shown to be better, in terms of the distribution fitting, than that of the POT methods using empirical threshold levels. The comparisons among the short-term extreme response values predicted by using the POT method with the optimal threshold levels and with the empirical threshold levels and by using direct simulation results further substantiate the validity of the proposed new methodology.

  18. Learning and generalization tasks predict short-term cognitive outcome in nondemented elderly.

    PubMed

    Myers, Catherine E; Kluger, Alan; Golomb, James; Gluck, Mark A; Ferris, Steven

    2008-06-01

    This study examines whether behavioral measures obtained in nondemented elderly can predict cognitive status at 2-year follow-up. Prior studies have established that delayed paragraph recall can help predict short-term risk for decline to mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer disease. It was examined whether prediction accuracy can be improved by adding a discrimination-and-generalization task that has previously been shown to be disrupted in nondemented elderly with hippocampal atrophy, a risk factor for Alzheimer disease. Fifty nondemented, medically healthy elderly patients received baseline clinical diagnosis and cognitive testing; 2 years later, patients received a follow-up clinical diagnosis of normal, mild cognitive impairment, or probable Alzheimer disease. In all, 2 baseline variables, delayed paragraph recall and generalization performance, were predictive of follow-up outcome with sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 91%-better than the classification accuracy based on either of these measures alone. These preliminary results suggest that these behavioral tasks may be useful tools in predicting short-term cognitive outcome in nondemented elderly.

  19. Short Term Weather Forecasting and Long Term Climate Predictions in Mesoamerica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Daniel, I.; Mecikalski, J.; Graves, S.

    2008-05-01

    The SERVIR project utilizes several predictive models to support regional monitoring and decision support in Mesoamerica. Short term forecasts ranging from a few hours to several days produce more than 30 data products that are used daily by decision makers, as well as news organizations in the region. The forecast products can be visualized in both two and three dimensional viewers such as Google Maps and Google Earth. Other viewers developed specifically for the Mesoamerican region by the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies in Auburn New York can also be employed. In collaboration with the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SpoRT) Center SERVIR utilizes the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to produce short-term (24 hr) regional weather forecasts twice a day. Temperature, precipitation, wind, and other variables are forecast in 10km and 30km grids over the Mesoamerica region. Using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model, known as MM5, SERVIR produces 48 hour- forecasts of soil temperature, two meter surface temperature, three hour accumulated precipitation, winds at different heights, and other variables. These are forecast hourly in 9km grids. Working in collaboration with the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Alabama in Huntsville produces a suite of short-term (0-6 hour) weather prediction products are generated. These "convective initiation" products predict the onset of thunderstorm rainfall and lightning within a 1-hour timeframe. Models are also employed for long term predictions. The SERVIR project, under USAID funding, has developed comprehensive regional climate change scenarios of Mesoamerica for future years: 2010, 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2099. These scenarios were created using the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (MM5) model and processed on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Cheetah supercomputer. The goal of these

  20. Computational classifiers for predicting the short-term course of Multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) of clinical, imaging and motor evoked potentials (MEP) for predicting the short-term prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods We obtained clinical data, MRI and MEP from a prospective cohort of 51 patients and 20 matched controls followed for two years. Clinical end-points recorded were: 1) expanded disability status scale (EDSS), 2) disability progression, and 3) new relapses. We constructed computational classifiers (Bayesian, random decision-trees, simple logistic-linear regression-and neural networks) and calculated their accuracy by means of a 10-fold cross-validation method. We also validated our findings with a second cohort of 96 MS patients from a second center. Results We found that disability at baseline, grey matter volume and MEP were the variables that better correlated with clinical end-points, although their diagnostic accuracy was low. However, classifiers combining the most informative variables, namely baseline disability (EDSS), MRI lesion load and central motor conduction time (CMCT), were much more accurate in predicting future disability. Using the most informative variables (especially EDSS and CMCT) we developed a neural network (NNet) that attained a good performance for predicting the EDSS change. The predictive ability of the neural network was validated in an independent cohort obtaining similar accuracy (80%) for predicting the change in the EDSS two years later. Conclusions The usefulness of clinical variables for predicting the course of MS on an individual basis is limited, despite being associated with the disease course. By training a NNet with the most informative variables we achieved a good accuracy for predicting short-term disability. PMID:21649880

  1. Sensory evoked potentials to predict short-term progression of disability in multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Margaritella, N; Mendozzi, L; Garegnani, M; Colicino, E; Gilardi, E; Deleonardis, L; Tronci, F; Pugnetti, L

    2012-08-01

    To devise a multivariate parametric model for short-term prediction of disability using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and multimodal sensory EP (mEP). A total of 221 multiple sclerosis (MS) patients who underwent repeated mEP and EDSS assessments at variable time intervals over a 20-year period were retrospectively analyzed. Published criteria were used to compute a cumulative score (mEPS) of abnormalities for each of 908 individual tests. Data of a statistically balanced sample of 58 patients were fed to a parametrical regression analysis using time-lagged EDSS and mEPS along with other clinical variables to estimate future EDSS scores at 1 year. Whole sample cross-sectional mEPS were moderately correlated with EDSS, whereas longitudinal mEPS were not. Using the regression model, lagged mEPS and lagged EDSS along with clinical variables provided better future EDSS estimates. The R (2) measure of fit was significant and 72% of EDSS estimates showed an error value of ±0.5. A parametrical regression model combining EDSS and mEPS accurately predicts short-term disability in MS patients and could be used to optimize decisions concerning treatment.

  2. Neural activity in the hippocampus predicts individual visual short-term memory capacity.

    PubMed

    von Allmen, David Yoh; Wurmitzer, Karoline; Martin, Ernst; Klaver, Peter

    2013-07-01

    Although the hippocampus had been traditionally thought to be exclusively involved in long-term memory, recent studies raised controversial explanations why hippocampal activity emerged during short-term memory tasks. For example, it has been argued that long-term memory processes might contribute to performance within a short-term memory paradigm when memory capacity has been exceeded. It is still unclear, though, whether neural activity in the hippocampus predicts visual short-term memory (VSTM) performance. To investigate this question, we measured BOLD activity in 21 healthy adults (age range 19-27 yr, nine males) while they performed a match-to-sample task requiring processing of object-location associations (delay period  =  900 ms; set size conditions 1, 2, 4, and 6). Based on individual memory capacity (estimated by Cowan's K-formula), two performance groups were formed (high and low performers). Within whole brain analyses, we found a robust main effect of "set size" in the posterior parietal cortex (PPC). In line with a "set size × group" interaction in the hippocampus, a subsequent Finite Impulse Response (FIR) analysis revealed divergent hippocampal activation patterns between performance groups: Low performers (mean capacity  =  3.63) elicited increased neural activity at set size two, followed by a drop in activity at set sizes four and six, whereas high performers (mean capacity  =  5.19) showed an incremental activity increase with larger set size (maximal activation at set size six). Our data demonstrated that performance-related neural activity in the hippocampus emerged below capacity limit. In conclusion, we suggest that hippocampal activity reflected successful processing of object-location associations in VSTM. Neural activity in the PPC might have been involved in attentional updating.

  3. Global velocity constrained cloud motion prediction for short-term solar forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yanjun; Li, Wei; Zhang, Chongyang; Hu, Chuanping

    2016-09-01

    Cloud motion is the primary reason for short-term solar power output fluctuation. In this work, a new cloud motion estimation algorithm using a global velocity constraint is proposed. Compared to the most used Particle Image Velocity (PIV) algorithm, which assumes the homogeneity of motion vectors, the proposed method can capture the accurate motion vector for each cloud block, including both the motional tendency and morphological changes. Specifically, global velocity derived from PIV is first calculated, and then fine-grained cloud motion estimation can be achieved by global velocity based cloud block researching and multi-scale cloud block matching. Experimental results show that the proposed global velocity constrained cloud motion prediction achieves comparable performance to the existing PIV and filtered PIV algorithms, especially in a short prediction horizon.

  4. Baroreflex Sensitivity Predicts Short-Term Outcome of Postural Tachycardia Syndrome in Children

    PubMed Central

    Li, Hongxia; Liao, Ying; Wang, Yuli; Liu, Ping; Sun, Chufan; Chen, Yonghong; Tang, Chaoshu; Jin, Hongfang; Du, Junbao

    2016-01-01

    Objective The study was designed to examine if baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) could predict the short-term outcome of postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS) in children. Methods Seventy-seven children subjects were included in the study. Among them, 45 children were in the POTS group and another 32 healthy children were in the control group. A ninety-day clinical follow-up was conducted and the symptom score before and after the follow-up was calculated for POTS patients by using POTS score system. Hemodynamics and continuous BRS monitoring were recorded by Finapres Medical System-FMS (FinometerPRO, FMS Company, Netherlands). According to the symptom score change during follow-up period, POTS patients were further divided into subgroup A (n = 24) with symptom score decreased by at least two points and subgroup B (n = 21) with symptom score decreased by less than two points. The predictive value of BRS in the short-term outcome of POTS in children was analyzed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results BRS of POTS children was significantly higher than that of the healthy children (18.76±9.96 ms/mmHg vs 10±5.42 ms/mmHg, P<0.01). It was higher in subgroup B than that of subgroup A (24.7±9.9 ms/mmHg vs 13.5±6.6 ms/mmHg, P <0.01). BRS was positively correlated with HR change in POTS Group (r = 0.304, P <0.05). Area under curve (AUC) was 0.855 (95% of confidence interval 0.735–0.975), and BRS of 17.01 ms/mmHg as a cut-off value yielded the predictive sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 87.5%. Conclusions BRS is a useful index to predict the short-term outcome of POTS in children. PMID:27936059

  5. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  6. Prediction of Non-Genotoxic Carcinogenicity Based on Genetic Profiles of Short Term Exposure Assays

    PubMed Central

    Pérez, Luis Orlando; González-José, Rolando; García, Pilar Peral

    2016-01-01

    Non-genotoxic carcinogens are substances that induce tumorigenesis by non-mutagenic mechanisms and long term rodent bioassays are required to identify them. Recent studies have shown that transcription profiling can be applied to develop early identifiers for long term phenotypes. In this study, we used rat liver expression profiles from the NTP (National Toxicology Program, Research Triangle Park, USA) DrugMatrix Database to construct a gene classifier that can distinguish between non-genotoxic carcinogens and other chemicals. The model was based on short term exposure assays (3 days) and the training was limited to oxidative stressors, peroxisome proliferators and hormone modulators. Validation of the predictor was performed on independent toxicogenomic data (TG-GATEs, Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System, Osaka, Japan). To build our model we performed Random Forests together with a recursive elimination algorithm (VarSelRF). Gene set enrichment analysis was employed for functional interpretation. A total of 770 microarrays comprising 96 different compounds were analyzed and a predictor of 54 genes was built. Prediction accuracy was 0.85 in the training set, 0.87 in the test set and increased with increasing concentration in the validation set: 0.6 at low dose, 0.7 at medium doses and 0.81 at high doses. Pathway analysis revealed gene prominence of cellular respiration, energy production and lipoprotein metabolism. The biggest target of toxicogenomics is accurately predict the toxicity of unknown drugs. In this analysis, we presented a classifier that can predict non-genotoxic carcinogenicity by using short term exposure assays. In this approach, dose level is critical when evaluating chemicals at early time points. PMID:27818731

  7. Prediction of Non-Genotoxic Carcinogenicity Based on Genetic Profiles of Short Term Exposure Assays.

    PubMed

    Pérez, Luis Orlando; González-José, Rolando; García, Pilar Peral

    2016-10-01

    Non-genotoxic carcinogens are substances that induce tumorigenesis by non-mutagenic mechanisms and long term rodent bioassays are required to identify them. Recent studies have shown that transcription profiling can be applied to develop early identifiers for long term phenotypes. In this study, we used rat liver expression profiles from the NTP (National Toxicology Program, Research Triangle Park, USA) DrugMatrix Database to construct a gene classifier that can distinguish between non-genotoxic carcinogens and other chemicals. The model was based on short term exposure assays (3 days) and the training was limited to oxidative stressors, peroxisome proliferators and hormone modulators. Validation of the predictor was performed on independent toxicogenomic data (TG-GATEs, Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System, Osaka, Japan). To build our model we performed Random Forests together with a recursive elimination algorithm (VarSelRF). Gene set enrichment analysis was employed for functional interpretation. A total of 770 microarrays comprising 96 different compounds were analyzed and a predictor of 54 genes was built. Prediction accuracy was 0.85 in the training set, 0.87 in the test set and increased with increasing concentration in the validation set: 0.6 at low dose, 0.7 at medium doses and 0.81 at high doses. Pathway analysis revealed gene prominence of cellular respiration, energy production and lipoprotein metabolism. The biggest target of toxicogenomics is accurately predict the toxicity of unknown drugs. In this analysis, we presented a classifier that can predict non-genotoxic carcinogenicity by using short term exposure assays. In this approach, dose level is critical when evaluating chemicals at early time points.

  8. Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2005-01-01

    The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.

  9. Physical bases of the generation of short-term earthquake precursors: A complex model of ionization-induced geophysical processes in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulinets, S. A.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Karelin, A. V.; Davidenko, D. V.

    2015-07-01

    This paper describes the current understanding of the interaction between geospheres from a complex set of physical and chemical processes under the influence of ionization. The sources of ionization involve the Earth's natural radioactivity and its intensification before earthquakes in seismically active regions, anthropogenic radioactivity caused by nuclear weapon testing and accidents in nuclear power plants and radioactive waste storage, the impact of galactic and solar cosmic rays, and active geophysical experiments using artificial ionization equipment. This approach treats the environment as an open complex system with dissipation, where inherent processes can be considered in the framework of the synergistic approach. We demonstrate the synergy between the evolution of thermal and electromagnetic anomalies in the Earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere. This makes it possible to determine the direction of the interaction process, which is especially important in applications related to short-term earthquake prediction. That is why the emphasis in this study is on the processes proceeding the final stage of earthquake preparation; the effects of other ionization sources are used to demonstrate that the model is versatile and broadly applicable in geophysics.

  10. Possibility of short-term probabilistic forecasts for large earthquakes making good use of the limitations of existing catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, Yoshito; Iwayama, Koji; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2016-10-01

    Earthquakes are quite hard to predict. One of the possible reasons can be the fact that the existing catalogs of past earthquakes are limited at most to the order of 100 years, while their characteristic time scale is sometimes greater than that time span. Here we rather use these limitations positively and characterize some large earthquake events as abnormal events that are not included there. When we constructed probabilistic forecasts for large earthquakes in Japan based on similarity and difference to their past patterns—which we call known and unknown abnormalities, respectively—our forecast achieved probabilistic gains of 5.7 and 2.4 against a time-independent model for main shocks with the magnitudes of 7 or above. Moreover, the two abnormal conditions covered 70% of days whose maximum magnitude was 7 or above.

  11. Markers of preparatory attention predict visual short-term memory performance.

    PubMed

    Murray, Alexandra M; Nobre, Anna C; Stokes, Mark G

    2011-05-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is limited in capacity. Therefore, it is important to encode only visual information that is most likely to be relevant to behaviour. Here we asked which aspects of selective biasing of VSTM encoding predict subsequent memory-based performance. We measured EEG during a selective VSTM encoding task, in which we varied parametrically the memory load and the precision of recall required to compare a remembered item to a subsequent probe item. On half the trials, a spatial cue indicated that participants only needed to encode items from one hemifield. We observed a typical sequence of markers of anticipatory spatial attention: early attention directing negativity (EDAN), anterior attention directing negativity (ADAN), late directing attention positivity (LDAP); as well as of VSTM maintenance: contralateral delay activity (CDA). We found that individual differences in preparatory brain activity (EDAN/ADAN) predicted cue-related changes in recall accuracy, indexed by memory-probe discrimination sensitivity (d'). Importantly, our parametric manipulation of memory-probe similarity also allowed us to model the behavioural data for each participant, providing estimates for the quality of the memory representation and the probability that an item could be retrieved. We found that selective encoding primarily increased the probability of accurate memory recall; that ERP markers of preparatory attention predicted the cue-related changes in recall probability.

  12. Short-term solar flare prediction using multi-model integration method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jin-Fu; Li, Fei; Wan, Jie; Yu, Da-Ren

    2017-03-01

    A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction. Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors from a pool of observation databases. The outputs of the base models are normalized first because these established models extract predictors from many data resources using different prediction methods. Then weighted integration of the base models is used to develop a multi-model integrated model (MIM). The weight set that single models assign is optimized by a genetic algorithm. Seven base models and data from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms are used to construct the MIM, and then its performance is evaluated by cross validation. Experimental results showed that the MIM outperforms any individual model in nearly every data group, and the richer the diversity of the base models, the better the performance of the MIM. Thus, integrating more diversified models, such as an expert system, a statistical model and a physical model, will greatly improve the performance of the MIM.

  13. Interpersonal violence and the prediction of short-term risk of repeat suicide attempt

    PubMed Central

    Haglund, Axel; Lindh, Åsa U.; Lysell, Henrik; Renberg, Ellinor Salander; Jokinen, Jussi; Waern, Margda; Runeson, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this multi-center cohort study, suicide attempters presenting to hospital (N = 355, 63% women) were interviewed using the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS) and followed-up by medical record review. Main outcome was non-fatal or fatal repeat suicide attempt within six months. Also, repeat attempt using a violent method was used as an additional outcome in separate analyses. Data were analyzed for the total group and for men and women separately. Repeat attempts were observed within six months in 78 persons (22%) and 21 (6%) of these used a violent method. KIVS total score of 6 or more was associated with repeat suicide attempt within six months (OR = 1.81, CI 1.08–3.02) and predicted new attempts with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 53%. A three-fold increase in odds ratio was observed for repeat attempt using a violent method (OR = 3.40, CI 1.22–9.49). An association between exposure to violence in adulthood and violent reattempt was seen in women (OR = 1.38, CI 1.06–1.82). The overall conclusions are that information about interpersonal violence may help predict short-term risk for repeat suicide attempt, and that structured assessment of interpersonal violence may be of value in risk assessment after attempted suicide. PMID:27841333

  14. Using Claims Data to Generate Clinical Flags Predicting Short-term Risk of Continued Psychiatric Hospitalizations

    PubMed Central

    Stein, Bradley D.; Pangilinan, Maria; Sorbero, Mark J; Marcus, Sue; Donahue, Sheila; Xu, Yan; Smith, Thomas E; Essock, Susan M

    2014-01-01

    Objective As health information technology advances, efforts to use administrative data to inform real-time treatment planning for individuals are increasing, despite few empirical studies demonstrating that such administrative data predict subsequent clinical events. Medicaid claims for individuals with frequent psychiatric hospitalizations were examined to test how well patterns of service use predict subsequent high short-term risk of continued psychiatric hospitalizations. Methods Medicaid claims files from New York and Pennsylvania were used to identify Medicaid recipients aged 18-64 with two or more inpatient psychiatric admissions during a target year ending March 31, 2009. Definitions from a quality-improvement initiative were used to identify patterns of inpatient and outpatient service use and prescription fills suggestive of clinical concerns. Generalized estimating equations and Markov models were applied to examine claims through March, 2011, to see what patterns of service use were sufficiently predictive of additional hospitalizations to be clinically useful. Results 11,801 unique individuals in New York and 1,859 in Pennsylvania identified met the cohort definition. In both Pennsylvania and New York, multiple recent hospitalizations, but not failure to use outpatient services or failure to fill medication prescriptions, were significant predictors of high risk of continued frequent hospitalizations, with odds ratios greater than 4.0. Conclusions Administrative data can be used to identify individuals at high risk of continued frequent hospitalizations. Such information could be used by payers and system administrators to authorize special services (e.g., mobile outreach) for such individuals as part of efforts to promote service engagement and prevent rapid rehospitalizations. PMID:25022360

  15. Foreshocks and short-term hazard assessment of large earthquakes using complex networks: the case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daskalaki, Eleni; Spiliotis, Konstantinos; Siettos, Constantinos; Minadakis, Georgios; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

    2016-08-01

    The monitoring of statistical network properties could be useful for the short-term hazard assessment of the occurrence of mainshocks in the presence of foreshocks. Using successive connections between events acquired from the earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for the case of the L'Aquila (Italy) mainshock (Mw = 6.3) of 6 April 2009, we provide evidence that network measures, both global (average clustering coefficient, small-world index) and local (betweenness centrality) ones, could potentially be exploited for forecasting purposes both in time and space. Our results reveal statistically significant increases in the topological measures and a nucleation of the betweenness centrality around the location of the epicenter about 2 months before the mainshock. The results of the analysis are robust even when considering either large or off-centered the main event space windows.

  16. Predicting Short Term Runoff Efficiency Using Antecedent Soil Moisture Estimates From Ground Penetrating Radar Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hermance, J. F.; Bohidar, R. N.

    2002-05-01

    Hydrologists universally recognize the importance of antecedent soil moisture conditions for predicting the response of catchments to storm events. We describe a pilot study involving a series of repeat geophysical measurements over a 5 month period to determine the water content of the subsurface immediately before a sequence of precipitation events. We correlate the resultant streamflow "response" of the local catchment to each event with the antecedent soil moisture at our reference site using a metric commonly employed by hydrologists: the ratio Qef/W, referred to here as the "short term runoff efficiency", which is simply the time-integrated volume of event flow (Qef) at the catchment's outflow point normalized by the volume of total precipitation (W) over its area. To determine the volumetric water content (Cw) of soils, past studies suggest the effectiveness of pulsed radio frequency methods, such as time domain reflectometry (TDR), or ground-penetrating radar (GPR). To first order, for typical field conditions and procedures, the velocity of a radio pulse in the subsurface is inversely proportional to the square root of the bulk dielectric constant, which in turn is proportional to the soil's water content. For this study, the advantage of GPR over conventional TDR measurements is that the GPR procedure determines average velocities from two-way traveltimes to an interface at depth, resulting in estimates of average physical properties over much larger volumes of the subsurface than would TDR. Our hydrologic data are USGS daily averaged discharges from the Ten Mile River (watershed area = 138 km2; 53.2 mi2) in southern New England. Daily values of precipitation were provided by personnel from the Seekonk Water District Office (MA) adjacent to the field site. Our hydrograph separation was facilitated by the observation that the event flow seems to be adequately represented by a simple composite cascaded linear reservoir model. The GPR data involved a series

  17. Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zavodsky, Bradley

    2012-01-01

    The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center located at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has been conducting testbed activities aimed at transitioning satellite products to National Weather Service operational end users for the last 10 years. SPoRT is a NASA/NOAA funded project that has set the bar for transition of products to operational end users through a paradigm of understanding forecast challenges and forecaster needs, displaying products in end users decision support systems, actively assessing the operational impact of these products, and improving products based on forecaster feedback. Aiming for quality partnerships rather than a large quantity of data users, SPoRT has become a community leader in training operational forecasters on the use of up-and-coming satellite data through the use of legacy instruments and proxy data. Traditionally, SPoRT has supplied satellite imagery and products from NASA instruments such as the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). However, recently, SPoRT has been funded by the GOES-R and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Grounds to accelerate the transition of selected imagery and products to help improve forecaster awareness of upcoming operational data from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This presentation provides background on the SPoRT Center, the SPoRT paradigm, and some example products that SPoRT is excited to work with forecasters to evaluate.

  18. An Application in the Ultra Short-term Prediction of UT1--UTC Based on Grey System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Y.; Zhao, D. N.; Cai, H. B.

    2016-05-01

    This work presents an application of the grey system model in the prediction of UT1--UTC. The short-term prediction of UT1--UTC is studied up to 30 days by means of the grey system model. The EOP (Earth orientation parameter) C04 time series with daily values from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) serve as the data base. The results of the prediction are analyzed and compared with those obtained by the artificial neural network (ANN), the combination of least squares (LS) and autoregressive (AR) model (LS+AR), and the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC). The accuracies of the ultra short-term (1--10 d) prediction are comparable to those obtained by the other prediction methods. The presented method is easy to use.

  19. Attentional Demands Predict Short-Term Memory Load Response in Posterior Parietal Cortex

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magen, Hagit; Emmanouil, Tatiana-Aloi; McMains, Stephanie A.; Kastner, Sabine; Treisman, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Limits to the capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) indicate a maximum storage of only 3 or 4 items. Recently, it has been suggested that activity in a specific part of the brain, the posterior parietal cortex (PPC), is correlated with behavioral estimates of VSTM capacity and might reflect a capacity-limited store. In three experiments that…

  20. Order Short-Term Memory Capacity Predicts Nonword Reading and Spelling in First and Second Grade

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binamé, Florence; Poncelet, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Recent theories of short-term memory (STM) distinguish between item information, which reflects the temporary activation of long-term representations stored in the language system, and serial-order information, which is encoded in a specific representational system that is independent of the language network. Some studies examining the…

  1. Short-Term Predictive Validity of Cluster Analytic and Dimensional Classification of Child Behavioral Adjustment in School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sangwon; Kamphaus, Randy W.; Baker, Jean A.

    2006-01-01

    A constructive debate over the classification of child psychopathology can be stimulated by investigating the validity of different classification approaches. We examined and compared the short-term predictive validity of cluster analytic and dimensional classifications of child behavioral adjustment in school using the Behavior Assessment System…

  2. Prototype operational earthquake prediction system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, Henry

    1986-01-01

    An objective if the U.S. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 is to introduce into all regions of the country that are subject to large and moderate earthquakes, systems for predicting earthquakes and assessing earthquake risk. In 1985, the USGS developed for the Secretary of the Interior a program for implementation of a prototype operational earthquake prediction system in southern California.

  3. UTILITY OF SHORT-TERM BASEMENT SCREENING RADON MEASUREMENTS TO PREDICT YEAR-LONG RESIDENTIAL RADON CONCENTRATIONS ON UPPER FLOORS.

    PubMed

    Barros, Nirmalla; Steck, Daniel J; William Field, R

    2016-11-01

    This study investigated temporal and spatial variability between basement radon concentrations (measured for ∼7 d using electret ion chambers) and basement and upper floor radon concentrations (measured for 1 y using alpha track detectors) in 158 residences in Iowa, USA. Utility of short-term measurements to approximate a person's residential radon exposure and effect of housing/occupant factors on predictive ability were evaluated. About 60 % of basement short-term, 60 % of basement year-long and 30 % of upper floor year-long radon measurements were equal to or above the United States Environmental Protection Agency's radon action level of 148 Bq m(-3) Predictive value of a positive short-term test was 44 % given the year-long living space concentration was equal to or above this action level. Findings from this study indicate that cumulative radon-related exposure was more closely approximated by upper floor year-long measurements than short-term or year-long measurements in the basement.

  4. Earthquake prediction, societal implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aki, Keiiti

    1995-07-01

    "If I were a brilliant scientist, I would be working on earthquake prediction." This is a statement from a Los Angeles radio talk show I heard just after the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994. Five weeks later, at a monthly meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), where more than two hundred scientists and engineers gathered to exchange notes on the earthquake, a distinguished French geologist who works on earthquake faults in China envied me for working now in southern California. This place is like northeastern China 20 years ago, when high seismicity and research activities led to the successful prediction of the Haicheng earthquake of February 4, 1975 with magnitude 7.3. A difficult question still haunting us [Aki, 1989] is whether the Haicheng prediction was founded on the physical reality of precursory phenomena or on the wishful thinking of observers subjected to the political pressure which encouraged precursor reporting. It is, however, true that a successful life-saving prediction like the Haicheng prediction can only be carried out by the coordinated efforts of decision makers and physical scientists.

  5. HPA axis response to stress predicts short-term snack intake in obese women.

    PubMed

    Appelhans, Bradley M; Pagoto, Sherry L; Peters, Erica N; Spring, Bonnie J

    2010-02-01

    Prior research has linked heightened cortisol reactivity to stress with increased food consumption. This pilot study tested corollaries of the hypothesis that cortisol stress reactivity promotes obesity. Thirty-four lean and obese women completed an acute stress task and a non-stressful control task in counterbalanced order. Contrary to expectations, higher post-stress cortisol was associated with decreased post-stress snack intake in obese women but was unrelated to snack intake in lean women. Stress also blunted an expected rise in hunger only among obese women. Findings suggest that some obese women may be more sensitive to short-term anorectic effects of HPA axis activation.

  6. Pre-earthquake signatures in atmosphere/ionosphere and their potential for short-term earthquake forecasting. Case studies for 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Davidenko, Dmitry; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; García-Rigo, Alberto; Petrrov, Leonid; Hatzopoulos, Nikolaos; Kafatos, Menas

    2016-04-01

    We are conducting validation studies on temporal-spatial pattern of pre-earthquake signatures in atmosphere and ionosphere associated with M>7 earthquakes in 2015. Our approach is based on the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) physical concept integrated with Multi-sensor-networking analysis (MSNA) of several non-correlated observations that can potentially yield predictive information. In this study we present two type of results: 1/ prospective testing of MSNA-LAIC for M7+ in 2015 and 2:/ retrospective analysis of temporal-spatial variations in atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the two M7.8 and M7.3 in Nepal and M8.3 Chile earthquakes. During the prospective test 18 earthquakes M>7 occurred worldwide, from which 15 were alerted in advance with the time lag between 2 up to 30 days and with different level of accuracy. The retrospective analysis included different physical parameters from space: Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR obtained from NPOES, NASA/AQUA) on the top of the atmosphere, Atmospheric potential (ACP obtained from NASA assimilation models) and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). Concerning M7.8 in Nepal of April 24, rapid increase of OLR reached the maximum on April 21-22. GPS/TEC data indicate maximum value during April 22-24 periods. Strong negative TEC anomaly was detected in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) on April 21st and strong positive on April 24th, 2015. For May 12 M7.3 aftershock similar pre- earthquake patterns in OLR and GPS/TEC were observed. Concerning the M8.3 Chile of Sept 16, the OLR strongest transient feature was observed of Sept 12. GPS/TEC analysis data confirm abnormal values on Sept 14. Also on the same day the degradation of EIA and disappearance of the crests of EIA as is characteristic for pre-dawn and early morning hours (11 LT) was observed. On Sept 16 co-seismic ionospheric signatures consistent with defined circular

  7. Usefulness of Single Column Model Diagnosis through Short-Term Predictions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergman, John W.; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

    2003-11-01

    Single column models (SCMs) provide an economical framework for developing and diagnosing representations of diabatic processes in weather and climate models. Their economy is achieved at the price of ignoring interactions with the circulation dynamics and with neighboring columns. It has recently been emphasized that this decoupling can lead to spurious error growth in SCM integrations that can totally obscure the error growth due to errors in the column physics that one hopes to isolate through such integrations. This paper suggests one way around this “existential crisis” of single column modeling. The basic idea is to focus on short-term SCM forecast errors, at ranges of 6 h or less, before a grossly unrealistic model state develops and before complex diabatic interactions render a clear diagnosis impossible.To illustrate, a short-term forecast error diagnosis of the NCAR SCM is presented for tropical conditions observed during the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE). The 21-day observing period is divided into 84 6-h segments for this purpose. The SCM error evolution is shown to be nearly linear over these 6-h segments and, indeed, apart from a vertical mean bias, to be mainly an extrapolation of initial tendencies. The latter are then decomposed into contributions by various components of the column physics, and additional 6-h integrations are performed with each component separately and in combination with others to assess its contribution to the 6-h errors. Initial tendency and 6-h error diagnostics thus complement each other in diagnosing column physics errors by this approach.Although the SCM evolution from one time step to the next is nearly linear, the finite-amplitude adjustments made multiple times within each time step to the temperature and humidity to remove supersaturation and convective instabilities make it necessary to consider nonlinear interactions between the column physics

  8. Earthquake Prediction is Coming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MOSAIC, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Describes (1) several methods used in earthquake research, including P:S ratio velocity studies, dilatancy models; and (2) techniques for gathering base-line data for prediction using seismographs, tiltmeters, laser beams, magnetic field changes, folklore, animal behavior. The mysterious Palmdale (California) bulge is discussed. (CS)

  9. Predicting Predictable: Accuracy and Reliability of Earthquake Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake forecast/prediction is an uncertain profession. The famous Gutenberg-Richter relationship limits magnitude range of prediction to about one unit. Otherwise, the statistics of outcomes would be related to the smallest earthquakes and may be misleading when attributed to the largest earthquakes. Moreover, the intrinsic uncertainty of earthquake sizing allows self-deceptive picking of justification "just from below" the targeted magnitude range. This might be important encouraging evidence but, by no means, can be a "helpful" additive to statistics of a rigid testing that determines reliability and efficiency of a farecast/prediction method. Usually, earthquake prediction is classified in respect to expectation time while overlooking term-less identification of earthquake prone areas, as well as spatial accuracy. The forecasts are often made for a "cell" or "seismic region" whose area is not linked to the size of target earthquakes. This might be another source for making a wrong choice in parameterization of an forecast/prediction method and, eventually, for unsatisfactory performance in a real-time application. Summing up, prediction of time and location of an earthquake of a certain magnitude range can be classified into categories listed in the Table below - Classification of earthquake prediction accuracy Temporal, in years Spatial, in source zone size (L) Long-term 10 Long-range Up to 100 Intermediate-term 1 Middle-range 5-10 Short-term 0.01-0.1 Narrow-range 2-3 Immediate 0.001 Exact 1 Note that a wide variety of possible combinations that exist is much larger than usually considered "short-term exact" one. In principle, such an accurate statement about anticipated seismic extreme might be futile due to the complexities of the Earth's lithosphere, its blocks-and-faults structure, and evidently nonlinear dynamics of the seismic process. The observed scaling of source size and preparation zone with earthquake magnitude implies exponential scales for

  10. Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

  11. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

    2016-01-01

    Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust. PMID:27551829

  12. A Hybrid Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Kernel Extreme Learning Machine.

    PubMed

    Shang, Qiang; Lin, Ciyun; Yang, Zhaosheng; Bing, Qichun; Zhou, Xiyang

    2016-01-01

    Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most important issues in the field of intelligent transport system (ITS). Because of the uncertainty and nonlinearity, short-term traffic flow prediction is a challenging task. In order to improve the accuracy of short-time traffic flow prediction, a hybrid model (SSA-KELM) is proposed based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). SSA is used to filter out the noise of traffic flow time series. Then, the filtered traffic flow data is used to train KELM model, the optimal input form of the proposed model is determined by phase space reconstruction, and parameters of the model are optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). Finally, case validation is carried out using the measured data of an expressway in Xiamen, China. And the SSA-KELM model is compared with several well-known prediction models, including support vector machine, extreme learning machine, and single KLEM model. The experimental results demonstrate that performance of the proposed model is superior to that of the comparison models. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed model is more robust.

  13. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  14. Individual stress vulnerability is predicted by short-term memory and AMPA receptor subunit ratio in the hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Mathias V; Trümbach, Dietrich; Weber, Peter; Wagner, Klaus; Scharf, Sebastian H; Liebl, Claudia; Datson, Nicole; Namendorf, Christian; Gerlach, Tamara; Kühne, Claudia; Uhr, Manfred; Deussing, Jan M; Wurst, Wolfgang; Binder, Elisabeth B; Holsboer, Florian; Müller, Marianne B

    2010-12-15

    Increased vulnerability to aversive experiences is one of the main risk factors for stress-related psychiatric disorders as major depression. However, the molecular bases of vulnerability, on the one hand, and stress resilience, on the other hand, are still not understood. Increasing clinical and preclinical evidence suggests a central involvement of the glutamatergic system in the pathogenesis of major depression. Using a mouse paradigm, modeling increased stress vulnerability and depression-like symptoms in a genetically diverse outbred strain, and we tested the hypothesis that differences in AMPA receptor function may be linked to individual variations in stress vulnerability. Vulnerable and resilient animals differed significantly in their dorsal hippocampal AMPA receptor expression and AMPA receptor binding. Treatment with an AMPA receptor potentiator during the stress exposure prevented the lasting effects of chronic social stress exposure on physiological, neuroendocrine, and behavioral parameters. In addition, spatial short-term memory, an AMPA receptor-dependent behavior, was found to be predictive of individual stress vulnerability and response to AMPA potentiator treatment. Finally, we provide evidence that genetic variations in the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 are linked to the vulnerable phenotype. Therefore, we propose genetic variations in the AMPA receptor system to shape individual stress vulnerability. Those individual differences can be predicted by the assessment of short-term memory, thereby opening up the possibility for a specific treatment by enhancing AMPA receptor function.

  15. Application of short-term water demand prediction model to Seoul.

    PubMed

    Joo, C N; Koo, J Y; Yu, M J

    2002-01-01

    To predict daily water demand for Seoul, Korea, the artificial neural network (ANN) was used. For the cross correlation, the factors affecting water demand such as maximum temperature, humidity, and wind speed as natural factors, holidays as a social factor and daily demand 1 day before were used. From the results of learning using various hidden layers and units in order to establish the structure of optimal ANN, the case of 3 hidden layers and numbers of unit with the same number of input factors showed the best result and, therefore, it was applied to seasonal water demand prediction. The performance of ANN was compared with a multiple regression method. We discuss the representation ability of the model building process and the applicability of the ANN approach for the daily water demand prediction. ANN provided reasonable results for time series prediction.

  16. Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

    2012-05-01

    This study assesses the CMIP5 decadal hindcast/forecast simulations of seven state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled models. Each decadal prediction consists of simulations over a 10 year period each of which are initialized every five years from climate states of 1960/1961 to 2005/2006. Most of the models overestimate trends, whereby the models predict less warming or even cooling in the earlier decades compared to observations and too much warming in recent decades. All models show high prediction skill for surface temperature over the Indian, North Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans where the externally forced component and low-frequency climate variability is dominant. However, low prediction skill is found over the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is predicted in most of the models with significant skill, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index shows relatively low predictive skill. The multi-model ensemble has in general better-forecast quality than the single-model systems for global mean surface temperature, AMO and PDO.

  17. The value of an acute octreotide suppression test in predicting short-term efficacy of somatostatin analogues in acromegaly.

    PubMed

    Wang, Meng; Shen, Ming; He, Wenqiang; Yang, Yeping; Liu, Wenjuan; Lu, Yun; Ma, Zengyi; Ye, Zhao; Zhang, Yichao; Zhao, Xiaolong; Lu, Bin; Hu, Ji; Huang, Yun; Shou, Xuefei; Wang, Yongfei; Ye, Hongying; Li, Yiming; Li, Shiqi; Zhao, Yao; Zhang, Zhaoyun

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the efficacy of long-acting somatostatin analogues (SSA) remains a challenge. We aim to quantitatively evaluate the predictive value of the octreotide suppression test (OST) in short-term efficacy of SSA in active acromegaly. Sixty-seven newly diagnosed acromegaly patients were assessed with OST. Subsequently, all patients were treated with long-acting SSA for 3 months, followed by reassessment. Nine parameters were tested, including GHn (the nadir GH during OST), ΔGH1 (= [GH0h-GHn]/GH0h, GH0h was the baseline GH during OST), ΔGH2 (= [GHm-GHn]/GHm, GHm was the mean GH on day curve), AUC(0-6h) (the GH area under the curve during OST) , ΔAUC1 (= [GH0h-AUC(0-6h)]/GH0h), ΔAUC2 (=[GHm-AUC(0-6h)]/GHm), AUC(m-6h) (the GH AUC during OST where GHm was used instead of GH0h), ΔAUC1' (=[GH0h-AUC(m-6h)]/GH0h) and ΔAUC2' (=[GHm-AUC(m-6h)]/GHm). The Youden indices were calculated to determine the optimal cutoffs to predict the short-term efficacy of SSA. ΔGH2 more than 86.83%, ΔAUC2 more than -57.48% and ΔAUC2' more than -57.98% provided the best predictors of a good GH response (sensitivity 93.8%, specificity 85.7%). ΔGH2 more than 90.51% provided the best predictor of a good tumor size response (sensitivity 84.8%, specificity 87.5%). The percentage fall of GHn (ΔGH) was a better predictive parameter than GHn. OST showed higher efficiency in predicting the efficacy of octreotide LAR than lanreotide SR. In conclusion, OST is a valid tool to predict both GH and tumor size response to short-term efficacy of SSA in acromegaly, especially for octreotide LAR. GHm is better to be used as basal GH than GH0 during OST.

  18. Predicting pathogen growth during short-term temperature abuse of raw sausage.

    PubMed

    Ingham, Steven C; Ingham, Barbara H; Borneman, Darand; Jaussaud, Emilie; Schoeller, Erica L; Hoftiezer, Nathan; Schwartzburg, Lauren; Burnham, Greg M; Norback, John P

    2009-01-01

    Lag-phase duration (LPD) and growth rate (GR) values were calculated from experimental data obtained using a previously described protocol (S. C. Ingham, M. A. Fanslau, G. M. Burnham, B. H. Ingham, J. P. Norback, and D. W. Schaffner, J. Food Prot. 70:1445-1456, 2007). These values were used to develop an interval accumulation-based tool designated THERM (temperature history evaluation for raw meats) for predicting growth or no growth of Salmonella serovars, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Staphylococcus aureus in temperature-abused raw sausage. Data (time-temperature and pathogen log CFU per gram) were obtained from six inoculation experiments with Salmonella, E. coli O157:H7, and S. aureus in three raw pork sausage products stored under different temperature abuse conditions. The time-temperature history from each experiment was entered into THERM to predict pathogen growth. Predicted and experimental results were described as growth (> 0.3 log increase in CFU) or no growth (< or = 0.3 log increase in CFU) and compared. The THERM tool accurately predicted growth or no growth for all 18 pathogen-experiment combinations. When compared with the observed changes in log CFU values for the nine pathogen-experiment combinations in which pathogens grew, the predicted changes in log CFU values were within 0.3 log CFU for three combinations, exceeded observed values by 0.4 to 1.5 log CFU in four combinations, and were 1.2 to 1.4 log CFU lower in two combinations. The THERM tool approach appears to be useful for predicting pathogen growth versus no growth in raw sausage during temperature abuse, although further development and testing are warranted.

  19. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  20. Ain't no mountain high enough? Setting high weight loss goals predict effort and short-term weight loss.

    PubMed

    De Vet, Emely; Nelissen, Rob M A; Zeelenberg, Marcel; De Ridder, Denise T D

    2013-05-01

    Although psychological theories outline that it might be beneficial to set more challenging goals, people attempting to lose weight are generally recommended to set modest weight loss goals. The present study explores whether the amount of weight loss individuals strive for is associated with more positive psychological and behavioral outcomes. Hereto, 447 overweight and obese participants trying to lose weight completed two questionnaires with a 2-month interval. Many participants set goals that could be considered unrealistically high. However, higher weight loss goals did not predict dissatisfaction but predicted more effort in the weight loss attempt, as well as more self-reported short-term weight loss when baseline commitment and motivation were controlled for.

  1. Land Use Regression Models for Ultrafine Particles and Black Carbon Based on Short-Term Monitoring Predict Past Spatial Variation.

    PubMed

    Montagne, Denise R; Hoek, Gerard; Klompmaker, Jochem O; Wang, Meng; Meliefste, Kees; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-07-21

    Health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) have not been investigated in epidemiological studies because of the lack of spatially resolved UFP exposure data. Short-term monitoring campaigns used to develop land use regression (LUR) models for UFP typically had moderate performance. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate spatial and spatiotemporal LUR models for UFP and Black Carbon (BC), including their ability to predict past spatial contrasts. We measured 30 min at each of 81 sites in Amsterdam and 80 in Rotterdam, The Netherlands in three different seasons. Models were developed using traffic, land use, reference site measurements, routinely measured pollutants and weather data. The percentage explained variation (R(2)) was 0.35-0.40 for BC and 0.33-0.42 for UFP spatial models. Traffic variables were present in every model. The coefficients for the spatial predictors were similar in spatial and spatiotemporal models. The BC LUR model explained 61% of the spatial variation in a previous campaign with longer sampling duration, better than the model R(2). The UFP LUR model explained 36% of UFP spatial variation measured 10 years earlier, similar to the model R(2). Short-term monitoring campaigns may be an efficient tool to develop LUR models.

  2. Ultra Short-term Prediction of Pole Coordinates via Combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Yu; Zhao, Danning; Cai, Hongbing

    2016-12-01

    It was shown in the previous study that the increase of pole coordinates prediction error for about 100 days in the future is mostly caused by irregular short period oscillations. In this paper, the ultra short-term prediction of pole coordinates is studied for 10 days in the future by means of combination of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and neural networks (NN), denoted EMD-NN. In the algorithm, EMD is employed as a low pass filter for eliminating high frequency signals from observed pole coordinates data. Then the annual and Chandler wobbles are removed a priori from pole coordinates data with high frequency signals eliminated. Finally, the radial basis function (RBF) networks are used to model and predict the residuals. The prediction performance of the EMD-NN approach is compared with that of the NN-only solution and the prediction methods and techniques involved in the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC). The results show that the prediction accuracy of the EMD-NN algorithm is better than that of the NN-only solution and is also comparable with that of the other existing prediction method and techniques.

  3. Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review

    PubMed Central

    Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

    2016-01-01

    Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1th and the 5th day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients

  4. Short-term prediction of solar irradiance using time-series analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Chowdhury, B.H. . Dept. of Electrical Engineering)

    1990-01-01

    A new statistical model for solar irradiance prediction is described. The method makes use of the atmospheric parameterizations as well as a time-series model to forecast a sequence of global irradiance in the 3--10 min time frame. A survey of some of the prominent research of the recent past reveals a definite lack of irradiance models that approach subhourly intervals, especially in the range mentioned. In this article, accurate parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena are used in a prewhitening process so that a time-series model may be used effectively to forecast irradiance components up to an hour in advance in the 3--10 min time intervals. The model requires only previous global horizontal irradiance measurement at a site. Results show that when compared with actual data on two locations in the southeaster United States, the forecasts are quite accurate, and the model is site-independent. Under some instances, forecasts may be inaccurate when there are sudden transitional changes in the cloud cover moving across the sun. In order for the proposed irradiance model to predict such transitional changes correctly, frequent forecast updates become necessary.

  5. Predicting children's short-term exposure to pesticides: results of a questionnaire screening approach.

    PubMed Central

    Sexton, Ken; Adgate, John L; Eberly, Lynn E; Clayton, C Andrew; Whitmore, Roy W; Pellizzari, Edo D; Lioy, Paul J; Quackenboss, James J

    2003-01-01

    The ability of questionnaires to predict children's exposure to pesticides was examined as part of the Minnesota Children's Pesticide Exposure Study (MNCPES). The MNCPES focused on a probability sample of 102 children between the ages of 3 and 13 years living in either urban (Minneapolis and St. Paul, MN) or nonurban (Rice and Goodhue Counties in Minnesota) households. Samples were collected in a variety of relevant media (air, food, beverages, tap water, house dust, soil, urine), and chemical analyses emphasized three organophosphate insecticides (chlorpyrifos, diazinon, malathion) and a herbicide (atrazine). Results indicate that the residential pesticide-use questions and overall screening approach used in the MNCPES were ineffective for identifying and oversampling children/households with higher levels of individual target pesticides. PMID:12515690

  6. Short-term predicted extinction of Andean populations of the lizard Stenocercus guentheri (Iguanidae: Tropidurinae).

    PubMed

    Andrango, María Belén; Sette, Carla; Torres-Carvajal, Omar

    2016-12-01

    We studied the thermal physiology of the Andean lizard Stenocercus guentheri in order to evaluate the possible effects of global warming on this species. We determined the preferred body temperature (Tpref), critical thermals (CTmin, CTmax), and hours of restriction and activity. Tpref was 32.14±1.83°C; CTmin was 8.31°C in adults and 9.14°C in juveniles, whereas CTmax was 43.28°C in adults and 41.68°C in juveniles. To assess extinction risk, we used the model created by Sinervo et al. (2010) and predicted that 16.7% of populations will have a high risk of extinction by 2020, with an increase to 26.7% by 2050. These results suggest that this species, despite being able to maintain its Tpref through behavioral thermoregulation and habitat selection, could be physiologically sensitive to climate warming; thus, the potential for local adaptation may be limited under a warmer climate. Further studies focusing on the ability of S. guentheri to evolve higher Tpref and thermal tolerances are needed to understand the ability of this species to respond to climate change.

  7. A hybrid model for short-term bacillary dysentery prediction in Yichang City, China.

    PubMed

    Yan, Weirong; Xu, Yong; Yang, Xiaobing; Zhou, Yikai

    2010-07-01

    Bacillary dysentery is still a common and serious public health problem in China. This paper is aimed at developing and evaluating an innovative hybrid model, which combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models, for bacillary dysentery forecasting. Data of monthly bacillary dysentery incidence in Yichang City from 2000-2007 was obtained from Yichang Disease Control and Prevention Center. The SARIMA and SARIMA-GRNN model were developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: data from the past 5 years was used to construct the models, and data from January to June of the 6th year was used to validate them. Simulation and forecasting performance was evaluated and compared between the two models. The hybrid SARIMA-GRNN model was found to outperform the SARIMA model with the lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error in simulation and prediction results. Developing and applying the SARIMA-GRNN hybrid model is an effective decision supportive method for producing reliable forecasts of bacillary dysentery for the study area.

  8. Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence

    The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.

  9. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    PubMed

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  10. Inflammatory Activity on Natalizumab Predicts Short-Term but Not Long-Term Disability in Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Dahdaleh, Samer; Malik, Omar; Jones, Brynmor; Nicholas, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Background In people with multiple sclerosis treated with interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate, new MRI lesions and relapses during the first year of treatment predict a poor prognosis. Objective To study this association in those receiving natalizumab. Methods Data were collected on relapses, new MRI activity, and Modified Rio Score after initiation of natalizumab in an observational cohort of 161 patients with high baseline disability. These were correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression at years 1, 2, 3, and 3–7 after treatment initiation, versus pre-treatment baseline. Results 46/161 patients had a relapse in the first year and 44/161 had EDSS progression by year 2. Relapses and Modified Rio Score in the first year of treatment predicted EDSS progression at year 1 and 2 after treatment initiation. However, this effect disappeared with longer follow-up. Paradoxically, there was a trend towards inflammatory activity on treatment (first year Modified Rio Score, relapses, and MRI activity) predicting a lower risk of EDSS progression by years 3–7, although this did not reach statistical significance. Those with and without EDSS progression did not differ in baseline age, EDSS, or pre-treatment relapse rate. Relapses in year 0–1 predicted further relapses in years 1–3. Conclusions Breakthrough inflammatory activity after natalizumab treatment is predictive of short-term outcome measures of relapses or EDSS progression, but does not predict longer term EDSS progression, in this cohort with high baseline disability. PMID:28081190

  11. Predicting short-term survival after liver transplantation on eight score systems: a national report from China Liver Transplant Registry

    PubMed Central

    Ling, Qi; Dai, Haojiang; Zhuang, Runzhou; Shen, Tian; Wang, Weilin; Xu, Xiao; Zheng, Shusen

    2017-01-01

    To compare the performance of eight score systems (MELD, uMELD, MELD-Na. iMELD, UKELD, MELD-AS, CTP, and mCTP) in predicting the post-transplant mortality, we analyzed the data of 6,014 adult cirrhotic patients who underwent liver transplantation between January 2003 and December 2010 from the China Liver Transplant Registry database. In hepatitis B virus (HBV) group, MELD, uMELD and MELD-AS showed good predictive accuracies at 3-month mortality after liver transplantation; by comparison with other five models, MELD presented the best ability in predicting 3-month, 6-month and 1-year mortality, showing a significantly better predictive ability than UKELD and iMELD. In hepatitis C virus and Alcohol groups, the predictive ability did not differ significantly between MELD and other models. Patient survivals in different MELD categories were of statistically significant difference. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model based on serum creatinine, need for hemodialysis and moderate ascites could identify the sickest one. In conclusion, MELD is superior to other score systems in predicting short-term post-transplant survival in patients with HBV-related liver disease. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model can identify the sickest patients who should be excluded from waiting list to prevent wasteful transplantation. PMID:28198820

  12. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    . Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

  13. Total Serum Bilirubin within Three Months of Hepatoportoenterostomy Predicts Short-term Outcomes in Biliary Atresia

    PubMed Central

    Shneider, Benjamin L.; Magee, John C.; Karpen, Saul J.; Rand, Elizabeth B.; Narkewicz, Michael R.; Bass, Lee M.; Schwarz, Kathleen; Whitington, Peter F.; Bezerra, Jorge A.; Kerkar, Nanda; Haber, Barbara; Rosenthal, Philip; Turmelle, Yumirle P.; Molleston, Jean P.; Murray, Karen F.; Ng, Vicky L.; Wang, Kasper S.; Romero, Rene; Squires, Robert H.; Arnon, Ronen; Sherker, Averell H.; Moore, Jeffrey; Ye, Wen; Sokol, Ronald J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To prospectively assess the value of serum total bilirubin (TB) within 3 months of hepatoportoenterostomy (HPE) in infants with biliary atresia (BA) as a biomarker predictive of clinical sequelae of liver disease in the first two years of life. Study design Infants with BA undergoing HPE between June 2004-January 2011 were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter study. Complications were monitored until 2 years of age or the earliest of liver transplant (LT), death, or study withdrawal. TB below 2 mg/dL (34.2 μM) at any time in the first 3 months (TB<2.0, all others = TB≥2) after HPE was examined as a biomarker, using Kaplan-Meier survival and logistic regression. Results Fifty percent (68/137) of infants had TB<2.0 in the first 3 months after HPE. Transplant-free survival at 2 years was significantly higher in the TB<2.0 group vs. TB≥2 (86% vs. 20%, p<0.0001). Infants with TB≥2 had diminished weight gain (p<0.0001), greater probability of developing ascites (OR 6.4, 95% CI 2.9–14.1, p<0.0001), hypoalbuminemia (OR 7.6, 95% CI 3.2–17.7, p< 0.0001), coagulopathy (OR 10.8, 95% CI 3.1–38.2, p=0.0002), LT (OR 12.4, 95% CI 5.3–28.7, p<0.0001), or LT or death (OR 16.8, 95% CI 7.2–39.2, p<0.0001). Conclusions Infants whose TB does not fall below 2.0 mg/dL within 3 months of HPE were at high risk for early disease progression, suggesting they should be considered for LT in a timely fashion. Interventions increasing the likelihood of achieving TB <2.0 mg/dL within 3 months of HPE may enhance early outcomes. PMID:26725209

  14. Current affairs in earthquake prediction in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uyeda, Seiya

    2015-12-01

    As of mid-2014, the main organizations of the earthquake (EQ hereafter) prediction program, including the Seismological Society of Japan (SSJ), the MEXT Headquarters for EQ Research Promotion, hold the official position that they neither can nor want to make any short-term prediction. It is an extraordinary stance of responsible authorities when the nation, after the devastating 2011 M9 Tohoku EQ, most urgently needs whatever information that may exist on forthcoming EQs. Japan's national project for EQ prediction started in 1965, but it has made no success. The main reason for no success is the failure to capture precursors. After the 1995 Kobe disaster, the project decided to give up short-term prediction and this stance has been further fortified by the 2011 M9 Tohoku Mega-quake. This paper tries to explain how this situation came about and suggest that it may in fact be a legitimate one which should have come a long time ago. Actually, substantial positive changes are taking place now. Some promising signs are arising even from cooperation of researchers with private sectors and there is a move to establish an "EQ Prediction Society of Japan". From now on, maintaining the high scientific standards in EQ prediction will be of crucial importance.

  15. Short-term predictions by statistical methods in regions of varying dynamical error growth in a chaotic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mittal, A. K.; Singh, U. P.; Tiwari, A.; Dwivedi, S.; Joshi, M. K.; Tripathi, K. C.

    2015-08-01

    In a nonlinear, chaotic dynamical system, there are typically regions in which an infinitesimal error grows and regions in which it decays. If the observer does not know the evolution law, recourse is taken to non-dynamical methods, which use the past values of the observables to fit an approximate evolution law. This fitting can be local, based on past values in the neighborhood of the present value as in the case of Farmer-Sidorowich (FS) technique, or it can be global, based on all past values, as in the case of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Short-term predictions are then made using the approximate local or global mapping so obtained. In this study, the dependence of statistical prediction errors on dynamical error growth rates is explored using the Lorenz-63 model. The regions of dynamical error growth and error decay are identified by the bred vector growth rates or by the eigenvalues of the symmetric Jacobian matrix. The prediction errors by the FS and ANN techniques in these two regions are compared. It is found that the prediction errors by statistical methods do not depend on the dynamical error growth rate. This suggests that errors using statistical methods are independent of the dynamical situation and the statistical methods may be potentially advantageous over dynamical methods in regions of low dynamical predictability.

  16. Predictive Modeling of Chemical Hazard by Integrating Numerical Descriptors of Chemical Structures and Short-term Toxicity Assay Data

    PubMed Central

    Rusyn, Ivan; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are widely used for in silico prediction of in vivo toxicity of drug candidates or environmental chemicals, adding value to candidate selection in drug development or in a search for less hazardous and more sustainable alternatives for chemicals in commerce. The development of traditional QSAR models is enabled by numerical descriptors representing the inherent chemical properties that can be easily defined for any number of molecules; however, traditional QSAR models often have limited predictive power due to the lack of data and complexity of in vivo endpoints. Although it has been indeed difficult to obtain experimentally derived toxicity data on a large number of chemicals in the past, the results of quantitative in vitro screening of thousands of environmental chemicals in hundreds of experimental systems are now available and continue to accumulate. In addition, publicly accessible toxicogenomics data collected on hundreds of chemicals provide another dimension of molecular information that is potentially useful for predictive toxicity modeling. These new characteristics of molecular bioactivity arising from short-term biological assays, i.e., in vitro screening and/or in vivo toxicogenomics data can now be exploited in combination with chemical structural information to generate hybrid QSAR–like quantitative models to predict human toxicity and carcinogenicity. Using several case studies, we illustrate the benefits of a hybrid modeling approach, namely improvements in the accuracy of models, enhanced interpretation of the most predictive features, and expanded applicability domain for wider chemical space coverage. PMID:22387746

  17. Use of "Crowd-Sourcing" and other collaborations to solve the short-term, earthquake forecasting problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleier, T.; Heraud, J. A.; Dunson, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    QuakeFinder (QF) and its international collaborators have installed and currently maintain 165 three-axis induction magnetometer instrument sites in California, Peru, Taiwan, Greece, Chile and Sumatra. The data from these instruments are being analyzed for pre-quake signatures. This analysis consists of both private research by QuakeFinder, and institutional collaborators (PUCP in Peru, NCU in Taiwan, PUCC in Chile, NOA in Greece, Syiah Kuala University in Indonesia, LASP at U of Colo., Stanford, and USGS). Recently, NASA Hq and QuakeFinder tried a new approach to help with the analysis of this huge (50+TB) data archive. A collaboration with Apirio/TopCoder, Harvard University, Amazon, QuakeFinder, and NASA Hq. resulted in an open algorithm development contest called "Quest for Quakes" in which contestants (freelance algorithm developers) attempted to identify quakes from a subset of the QuakeFinder data (3TB). The contest included a $25K prize pool, and contained 100 cases where earthquakes (and null sets) included data from up to 5 remote sites, near and far from quakes greater than M4. These data sets were made available through Amazon.com to hundreds of contestants over a two week contest period. In a more traditional approach, several new algorithms were tried by actively sharing the QF data with universities over a longer period. These algorithms included Principal Component Analysis-PCA and deep neural networks in an effort to automatically identify earthquake signals within typical, noise-filled environments. This presentation examines the pros and cons of employing these two approaches, from both logistical and scientific perspectives.

  18. Flirting with disaster: short-term mating orientation and hostile sexism predict different types of sexual harassment.

    PubMed

    Diehl, Charlotte; Rees, Jonas; Bohner, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    We combine evolutionary and sociocultural accounts of sexual harassment, proposing that sexuality-related and hostility-related motives lead to different types of harassment. Specifically, men's short-term mating orientation (STMO) was hypothesized to predict only unwanted sexual attention but not gender harassment, whereas men's hostile sexism (HS) was hypothesized to predict both unwanted sexual attention and gender harassment. As part of an alleged computer-chat task, 100 male students could send sexualized personal remarks (representing unwanted sexual attention), sexist jokes (representing gender harassment), or nonharassing material to an attractive female target. Independently, participants' STMO, HS, and sexual harassment myth acceptance (SHMA) were assessed. Correlational and path analyses revealed that STMO specifically predicted unwanted sexual attention, whereas HS predicted both unwanted sexual attention and gender harassment. Furthermore, SHMA fully mediated the effect of HS on gender harassment, but did not mediate effects of STMO or HS on unwanted sexual attention. Results are discussed in relation to motivational explanations for sexual harassment and antiharassment interventions.

  19. BCL2L12 Is a Novel Biomarker for the Prediction of Short-Term Relapse in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Fendri, Ali; Kontos, Christos K; Khabir, Abdelmajid; Mokdad-Gargouri, Raja; Scorilas, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    BCL2-like 12 (BCL2L12 ) is a new member of the apoptosis-related BCL2 gene family, members of which are implicated in various malignancies. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is a highly metastatic, malignant epithelial tumor, with a high prevalence in Southeast Asia and North Africa. The purpose of the current study was to quantify and investigate the expression levels of the BCL2L12 gene in nasopharyngeal carcinoma biopsies and to assess its prognostic value. Total RNA was isolated from 89 malignant and hyperplastic nasopharyngeal biopsies from Tunisian patients. After testing the quality of the extracted RNA, cDNA was prepared by reverse transcription. A highly sensitive real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method for BCL2L12 mRNA quantification was developed using SYBR® Green chemistry. GAPDH served as a reference gene. Relative quantification analysis was performed using the comparative CT (2−ΔΔCT) method. Higher BCL2L12 mRNA levels were detected in undifferentiated carcinomas of the nasopharynx, rather than in nonkeratinizing nasopharyngeal tumors (P = 0.045). BCL2L12 expression status was also found to be positively associated with the presence of distant metastases (P = 0.014). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with BCL2L12-positive nasopharyngeal tumors have significantly shorter disease-free survival (P = 0.020). Cox regression analysis showed BCL2L12 expression to be an unfavorable and independent prognostic indicator of short-term relapse in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (P = 0.042). Our results suggest that mRNA expression of BCL2L12 may constitute a novel biomarker for the prediction of short-term relapse in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. PMID:21152697

  20. Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

  1. Short-Term Precipitation Occurrence Prediction for Strong Convective Weather Using FY2-G Satellite Data: a Case Study of Shenzhen, South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kai; Liu, Jun; Guo, Shanxin; Chen, Jinsong; Liu, Ping; Qian, Jing; Chen, Huijuan; Sun, Bo

    2016-06-01

    Short-term precipitation commonly occurs in south part of China, which brings intensive precipitation in local region for very short time. Massive water would cause the intensive flood inside of city when precipitation amount beyond the capacity of city drainage system. Thousands people's life could be influenced by those short-term disasters and the higher city managements are required to facing these challenges. How to predict the occurrence of heavy precipitation accurately is one of the worthwhile scientific questions in meteorology. According to recent studies, the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction based on numerical simulation model still remains low reliability, in some area where lack of local observations, the accuracy may be as low as 10%. The methodology for short term precipitation occurrence prediction still remains a challenge. In this paper, a machine learning method based on SVM was presented to predict short-term precipitation occurrence by using FY2-G satellite imagery and ground in situ observation data. The results were validated by traditional TS score which commonly used in evaluation of weather prediction. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm can present overall accuracy up to 90% for one-hour to six-hour forecast. The result implies the prediction accuracy could be improved by using machine learning method combining with satellite image. This prediction model can be further used to evaluated to predicted other characteristics of weather in Shenzhen in future.

  2. Model predictions of features in microsaccade-related neural responses in a feedforward network with short-term synaptic depression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jian-Fang; Yuan, Wu-Jie; Zhou, Zhao; Zhou, Changsong

    2016-02-01

    Recently, the significant microsaccade-induced neural responses have been extensively observed in experiments. To explore the underlying mechanisms of the observed neural responses, a feedforward network model with short-term synaptic depression has been proposed [Yuan, W.-J., Dimigen, O., Sommer, W. and Zhou, C. Front. Comput. Neurosci. 7, 47 (2013)]. The depression model not only gave an explanation for microsaccades in counteracting visual fading, but also successfully reproduced several microsaccade-related features in experimental findings. These results strongly suggest that, the depression model is very useful to investigate microsaccade-related neural responses. In this paper, by using the model, we extensively study and predict the dependance of microsaccade-related neural responses on several key parameters, which could be tuned in experiments. Particularly, we provide a significant prediction that microsaccade-related neural response also complies with the property “sharper is better” observed in many contexts in neuroscience. Importantly, the property exhibits a power-law relationship between the width of input signal and the responsive effectiveness, which is robust against many parameters in the model. By using mean field theory, we analytically investigate the robust power-law property. Our predictions would give theoretical guidance for further experimental investigations of the functional role of microsaccades in visual information processing.

  3. Space geodesy and earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilham, Roger

    1987-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is discussed from the point of view of a new development in geodesy known as space geodesy, which involves the use of extraterrestrial sources or reflectors to measure earth-based distances. Space geodesy is explained, and its relation to terrestrial geodesy is examined. The characteristics of earthquakes are reviewed, and the ways that they can be exploited by space geodesy to predict earthquakes is demonstrated.

  4. Exaggerated Claims About Earthquake Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafka, Alan L.; Ebel, John E.

    2007-01-01

    The perennial promise of successful earthquake prediction captures the imagination of a public hungry for certainty in an uncertain world. Yet, given the lack of any reliable method of predicting earthquakes [e.g., Geller, 1997; Kagan and Jackson, 1996; Evans, 1997], seismologists regularly have to explain news stories of a supposedly successful earthquake prediction when it is far from clear just how successful that prediction actually was. When journalists and public relations offices report the latest `great discovery' regarding the prediction of earthquakes, seismologists are left with the much less glamorous task of explaining to the public the gap between the claimed success and the sober reality that there is no scientifically proven method of predicting earthquakes.

  5. The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2005-01-01

    Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products

  6. Earthquake prediction; fact and fallacy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, R.N.

    1976-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a young and growing area in the field of seismology. Only a few years ago, experts in seismology were declaring flatly that it was impossible. Now, some successes have been achieved and more are expected. Within a few years, earthquakes may be predicted as routinely as the weather, and possibly with greater accuracy. 

  7. Can We Predict Earthquakes?

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Paul

    2016-08-31

    The only thing we know for sure about earthquakes is that one will happen again very soon. Earthquakes pose a vital yet puzzling set of research questions that have confounded scientists for decades, but new ways of looking at seismic information and innovative laboratory experiments are offering tantalizing clues to what triggers earthquakes — and when.

  8. Can We Predict Earthquakes?

    ScienceCinema

    Johnson, Paul

    2016-09-09

    The only thing we know for sure about earthquakes is that one will happen again very soon. Earthquakes pose a vital yet puzzling set of research questions that have confounded scientists for decades, but new ways of looking at seismic information and innovative laboratory experiments are offering tantalizing clues to what triggers earthquakes — and when.

  9. Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

    2016-06-01

    Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.

  10. Short-term prediction of UT1-UTC by combination of the grey model and neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Yu; Guo, Min; Hu, Dan-dan; Cai, Hong-bing; Zhao, Dan-ning; Hu, Zhao-peng; Gao, Yu-ping

    2017-01-01

    UT1-UTC predictions especially short-term predictions are essential in various fields linked to reference systems such as space navigation and precise orbit determinations of artificial Earth satellites. In this paper, an integrated model combining the grey model GM(1, 1) and neural networks (NN) are proposed for predicting UT1-UTC. In this approach, the effects of the Solid Earth tides and ocean tides together with leap seconds are first removed from observed UT1-UTC data to derive UT1R-TAI. Next the derived UT1R-TAI time-series are de-trended using the GM(1, 1) and then residuals are obtained. Then the residuals are used to train a network. The subsequently predicted residuals are added to the GM(1, 1) to obtain the UT1R-TAI predictions. Finally, the predicted UT1R-TAI are corrected for the tides together with leap seconds to obtain UT1-UTC predictions. The daily values of UT1-UTC between January 7, 2010 and August 6, 2016 from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) 08 C04 series are used for modeling and validation of the proposed model. The results of the predictions up to 30 days in the future are analyzed and compared with those by the GM(1, 1)-only model and combination of the least-squares (LS) extrapolation of the harmonic model including the linear part, annual and semi-annual oscillations and NN. It is found that the proposed model outperforms the other two solutions. In addition, the predictions are compared with those from the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC) lasting from October 1, 2005 to February 28, 2008. The results show that the prediction accuracy is inferior to that of those methods taking into account atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), i.e., Kalman filter and adaptive transform from AAM to LODR, but noticeably better that of the other existing methods and techniques, e.g., autoregressive filtering and least-squares collocation.

  11. Predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability for violent behavior in outpatient forensic psychiatric patients.

    PubMed

    Troquete, Nadine A C; van den Brink, Rob H S; Beintema, Harry; Mulder, Tamara; van Os, Titus W D P; Schoevers, Robert A; Wiersma, Durk

    2015-06-01

    It remains unclear whether prediction of violence based on historical factors can be improved by adding dynamic risks, protective strengths, selection of person-specific key strengths or critical vulnerabilities, and structured professional judgment (SPJ). We examine this in outpatient forensic psychiatry with the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) at 3 and 6 months follow-up. An incident occurred during 33 (13%) out of 252 3-month and 44 (21%) out of 211 6-month follow-up periods (n = 188 unique clients). Pearson correlations for all predictor variables were in the expected directions. Prediction of recidivism based on historical factor ratings (odds ratio [OR] = 1.10) could not be improved through the addition of dynamic risk, protective strength, or key or critical factor scores (all ORs ns). The addition of the SPJ improved the model to modest accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = .64) but made no independent significant contribution (OR = 1.55, p = .21) for the 3-month follow-up. For the 6-month follow-up, SPJ scores also increased predictive accuracy to modest (AUC = .67) and made a significant independent contribution to the prediction of the outcome (OR = 1.98, p = .04). Multicollinearity limits were unviolated. Limitations apply, however, results are similar to those from clinical, researcher rated samples and are discussed in the light of setting specific characteristics. Although it is too early to advocate implementing risk assessment instruments in clinical practice, we can conclude that clinicians in a heterogeneous outpatient forensic psychiatric setting can achieve similar results with the START as clinicians and research staff in more homogeneous inpatient settings.

  12. Performance assessment of deterministic and probabilistic weather predictions for the short-term optimization of a tropical hydropower reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado, Rodolfo; Assis dos Reis, Alberto; Naumann, Steffi; Collischonn, Walter

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower is the most important electricity source in Brazil. During recent years, it accounted for 60% to 70% of the total electric power supply. Marginal costs of hydropower are lower than for thermal power plants, therefore, there is a strong economic motivation to maximize its share. On the other hand, hydropower depends on the availability of water, which has a natural variability. Its extremes lead to the risks of power production deficits during droughts and safety issues in the reservoir and downstream river reaches during flood events. One building block of the proper management of hydropower assets is the short-term forecast of reservoir inflows as input for an online, event-based optimization of its release strategy. While deterministic forecasts and optimization schemes are the established techniques for the short-term reservoir management, the use of probabilistic ensemble forecasts and stochastic optimization techniques receives growing attention and a number of researches have shown its benefit. The present work shows one of the first hindcasting and closed-loop control experiments for a multi-purpose hydropower reservoir in a tropical region in Brazil. The case study is the hydropower project (HPP) Três Marias, located in southeast Brazil. The HPP reservoir is operated with two main objectives: (i) hydroelectricity generation and (ii) flood control at Pirapora City located 120 km downstream of the dam. In the experiments, precipitation forecasts based on observed data, deterministic and probabilistic forecasts with 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF are used as forcing of the MGB-IPH hydrological model to generate streamflow forecasts over a period of 2 years. The online optimization depends on a deterministic and multi-stage stochastic version of a model predictive control scheme. Results for the perfect forecasts show the potential benefit of the online optimization and indicate a desired forecast lead time of 30 days. In comparison, the use of

  13. Interleukin-6 predicts short-term global functional decline in the oldest old: results from the BELFRAIL study.

    PubMed

    Adriaensen, Wim; Matheï, Catharina; Vaes, Bert; van Pottelbergh, Gijs; Wallemacq, Pierre; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2014-01-01

    The chronic inflammatory state at old age may contribute to the pathophysiology of or reflect chronic conditions resulting in loss of physical and mental functioning. Therefore, our objective was to examine the predictive value of a large battery of serum inflammatory markers as risk indicators for global functional decline and its specific physical and mental determinants in the oldest old. Global functional decline and specific aspects of physical and mental functional decline were assessed during an average of 1.66 years (±0.21) in a sample of 303 persons aged 80 years or older of the BELFRAIL study. Serum levels of 14 inflammatory proteins, including cytokines, growth factors, and acute phase proteins, were measured at baseline. Almost 20 % of the participants had a significant global functional decline over time. Interleukin (IL)-6 serum levels were uniquely positively associated with global functional decline, even after correcting for multiple confounders (odds ratio 1.51). Odds ratios for the individual aspects (physical dependency, physical performance, cognition, and depression) of functioning were lower, and composite scores of physical or mental decline were not significant. The proportion of global functional decline exhibited a dose-response curve with increasing levels of IL-6. Thus, IL-6 is an independent risk indicator for accelerated global functional decline in the oldest old. Our results suggest that simple serum levels of IL-6 may be very useful in short-term identification or evaluation of global functional status in the oldest old.

  14. Experience of affects predicting sense of self and others in short-term dynamic and cognitive therapy.

    PubMed

    Berggraf, Lene; Ulvenes, Pål G; Oktedalen, Tuva; Hoffart, Asle; Stiles, Tore; McCullough, Leigh; Wampold, Bruce E

    2014-06-01

    The present study examined whether levels of activating affects (AA) and inhibitory affects (IA) were related to change toward more compassionate and realistic levels of sense of self (SoS) and sense of others (SoO). The sample included 47 patients diagnosed with cluster C personality disorders, who received 40 sessions of either cognitive therapy or short-term dynamic therapy (see the randomized controlled trial study, Svartberg, Stiles, & Seltzer, 2004). A total of 927 videotaped sessions were rated with the use of the observational instrument, Achievement of Therapeutic Objectives Scale. Longitudinal multilevel modeling enabled the examination of both between-person effects and within-person changes in level of AA and IA. Patients with better ability to experience AA at the start of therapy displayed significantly higher SoS and SoO across sessions compared with other patients. Patients who experienced higher levels of IA at the start of therapy displayed lower levels of SoS across sessions. A patient experiencing more AA than usual for him/her self within a session predicted an increased level of SoS and SoO at the next measuring point. There were no different change patterns in the 2 treatment groups. Results suggest that focus within therapy sessions on increasing patients' AA can help facilitate change in SoS and SoO toward more compassionate and realistic quality.

  15. A Comparison Of Primitive Model Results Of The Short Term Wind Energy Prediction System (Sweps): WRF vs MM5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unal, E.; Tan, E.; Mentes, S. S.; Caglar, F.; Turkmen, M.; Unal, Y. S.; Onol, B.; Ozdemir, E. T.

    2012-04-01

    Although discontinuous behavior of wind field makes energy production more difficult, wind energy is the fastest growing renewable energy sector in Turkey which is the 6th largest electricity market in Europe. Short-term prediction systems, which capture the dynamical and statistical nature of the wind field in spatial and time scales, need to be advanced in order to increase the wind power prediction accuracy by using appropriate numerical weather forecast models. Therefore, in this study, performances of the next generation mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasting model, WRF, and The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model, MM5, have been compared for the Western Part of Turkey. MM5 has been widely used by Turkish State Meteorological Service from which MM5 results were also obtained. Two wind farms of the West Turkey have been analyzed for the model comparisons by using two different model domain structures. Each model domain has been constructed by 3 nested domains downscaling from 9km to 1km resolution by the ratio of 3. Since WRF and MM5 models have no exactly common boundary layer, cumulus, and microphysics schemes, the similar physics schemes have been chosen for these two models in order to have reasonable comparisons. The preliminary results show us that, depending on the location of the wind farms, MM5 wind speed RMSE values are 1 to 2 m/s greater than that of WRF values. Since 1 to 2 m/s errors can be amplified when wind speed is converted to wind power; it is decided that the WRF model results are going to be used for the rest of the project.

  16. JPSS Proving Ground Activities with NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, L. A.; Smith, M. R.; Fuell, K.; Stano, G. T.; LeRoy, A.; Berndt, E.

    2015-12-01

    Instruments aboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series of satellites will provide imagery and other data sets relevant to operational weather forecasts. To prepare current and future weather forecasters in application of these data sets, Proving Ground activities have been established that demonstrate future JPSS capabilities through use of similar sensors aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and the S-NPP mission. As part of these efforts, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama partners with near real-time providers of S-NPP products (e.g., NASA, UW/CIMSS, UAF/GINA, etc.) to demonstrate future capabilities of JPSS. This includes training materials and product distribution of multi-spectral false color composites of the visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands of MODIS and VIIRS. These are designed to highlight phenomena of interest to help forecasters digest the multispectral data provided by the VIIRS sensor. In addition, forecasters have been trained on the use of the VIIRS day-night band, which provides imagery of moonlit clouds, surface, and lights emitted by human activities. Hyperspectral information from the S-NPP/CrIS instrument provides thermodynamic profiles that aid in the detection of extremely cold air aloft, helping to map specific aviation hazards at high latitudes. Hyperspectral data also support the estimation of ozone concentration, which can highlight the presence of much drier stratospheric air, and map its interaction with mid-latitude or tropical cyclones to improve predictions of their strengthening or decay. Proving Ground activities are reviewed, including training materials and methods that have been provided to forecasters, and forecaster feedback on these products that has been acquired through formal, detailed assessment of their applicability to a given forecast threat or task. Future opportunities for collaborations around the delivery of training are proposed

  17. Radon in earthquake prediction research.

    PubMed

    Friedmann, H

    2012-04-01

    The observation of anomalies in the radon concentration in soil gas and ground water before earthquakes initiated systematic investigations on earthquake precursor phenomena. The question what is needed for a meaningful earthquake prediction as well as what types of precursory effects can be expected is shortly discussed. The basic ideas of the dilatancy theory are presented which in principle can explain the occurrence of earthquake forerunners. The reasons for radon anomalies in soil gas and in ground water are clarified and a possible classification of radon anomalies is given.

  18. The profound reach of the M8.6 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake: short-term global triggering followed by a longer-term global shadow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollitz, F. F.; Burgmann, R.; Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.

    2013-12-01

    The M8.6 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake was an unusually large intra-oceanic strike-slip event. For several days the global M ≥ 4.5 and M ≥ 6.5 seismicity rate at remote distances (i.e. thousands of km from the mainshock) was elevated. The strike-slip mainshock appears through its Love waves to have triggered a global burst of strike-slip aftershocks over several days. But the M ≥ 6.5 rate subsequently dropped to zero for the succeeding 95 days, although the M ≤ 6.0 global rate was close to background during this period. Such an extended period without a M ≥ 6.5 event has happened rarely over the past century, and never after a large mainshock. Quiescent periods following previous large (M ≥ 8) mainshocks over the past century are either much shorter or begin so long after a given mainshock that no physical interpretation is warranted. The 2012 mainshock is unique in terms of both the short-lived global increase and subsequent long quiescent period. We believe that the two components are linked and interpret this pattern as the product of dynamic stressing of a global system of faults. Transient dynamic stresses can encourage short-term triggering but paradoxically, can also inhibit rupture temporarily until background tectonic loading restores the system to its pre-mainshock stress levels.

  19. Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Aagaard, B; Dost, B; Ellsworth, W L; Hardebeck, J L; Harris, R A; Ji, C; Johnston, M J S; Langbein, J; Lienkaemper, J J; Michael, A J; Murray, J R; Nadeau, R M; Reasenberg, P A; Reichle, M S; Roeloffs, E A; Shakal, A; Simpson, R W; Waldhauser, F

    2005-10-13

    Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

  20. A short-term predictive system for surface currents from a rapidly deployed coastal HF radar network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrick, Donald; Fernandez, Vicente; Ferrer, Maria I.; Whelan, Chad; Breivik, Øyvind

    2012-05-01

    In order to address the need for surface trajectory forecasts following deployment of coastal HF radar systems during emergency-response situations (e.g., search and rescue, oil spill), a short-term predictive system (STPS) based on only a few hours data background is presented. First, open-modal analysis (OMA) coefficients are fitted to 1-D surface currents from all available radar stations at each time interval. OMA has the effect of applying a spatial low-pass filter to the data, fills gaps, and can extend coverage to areas where radial vectors are available from a single radar only. Then, a set of temporal modes is fitted to the time series of OMA coefficients, typically over a short 12-h trailing period. These modes include tidal and inertial harmonics, as well as constant and linear trends. This temporal model is the STPS basis for producing up to a 12-h current vector forecast from which a trajectory forecast can be derived. We show results of this method applied to data gathered during the September 2010 rapid-response demonstration in northern Norway. Forecasted coefficients, currents, and trajectories are compared with the same measured quantities, and statistics of skill are assessed employing 16 24-h data sets. Forecasted and measured kinetic variances of the OMA coefficients typically agreed to within 10-15%. In one case where errors were larger, strong wind changes are suspected and examined as the cause. Sudden wind variability is not included properly within the STPS attack we presently employ and will be a subject for future improvement.

  1. Sociological aspects of earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1979-01-01

    Henry Spall talked recently with Denis Mileti who is in the Department of Sociology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo. Dr. Mileti is a sociologst involved with research programs that study the socioeconomic impact of earthquake prediction

  2. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  3. Development of Short-term Molecular Thresholds to Predict Long-term Mouse Liver Tumor Outcomes: Phthalate Case Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    Short-term molecular profiles are a central component of strategies to model health effects of environmental chemicals. In this study, a 7 day mouse assay was used to evaluate transcriptomic and proliferative responses in the liver for a hepatocarcinogenic phthalate, di (2-ethylh...

  4. Use of short-term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

    SciTech Connect

    Glass, L.R.; Jones, T.D.; Easterly, C.E.; Walsh, P.J.

    1990-10-01

    It has been hypothesized that results from short-term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Historically, the validity of the short-term tests has been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long-term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used to assist in isolating those compounds which may represent a more significant toxicologic hazard than others. In contrast, the goal of this research is to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short-term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation. Chemicals were selected mostly from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC); a few other chemicals commonly recognized as hazardous were included. Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on 52 chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short-term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short-term tests systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may contribute to increased carcinogenesis in humans as a result of occupational or environmental exposures. 177 refs., 8 tabs.

  5. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knopoff, L.

    1990-01-01

    The problems in predicting earthquakes have been attacked by phenomenological methods from pre-historic times to the present. The associations of presumed precursors with large earthquakes often have been remarked upon. the difficulty in identifying whether such correlations are due to some chance coincidence or are real precursors is that usually one notes the associations only in the relatively short time intervals before the large events. Only rarely, if ever, is notice taken of whether the presumed precursor is to be found in the rather long intervals that follow large earthquakes, or in fact is absent in these post-earthquake intervals. If there are enough examples, the presumed correlation fails as a precursor in the former case, while in the latter case the precursor would be verified. Unfortunately, the observer is usually not concerned with the 'uniteresting' intervals that have no large earthquakes

  6. The very short-term rainfall forecasting for a mountainous watershed by means of an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ming-Chang; Lin, Gwo-Fong

    2017-03-01

    During typhoons, accurate forecasts of rainfall are always desired for various kinds of disaster warning systems to reduce the impact of rainfall-induced disasters. However, rainfall forecasting, especially the very short-term (hourly) rainfall, is one of the most difficult tasks in hydrology due to the high variability in space and time and the complex physical process. In this study, the purpose is to provide effective forecasts of very short-term rainfall by means of the ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan. To this end, the ensemble forecasts of hourly rainfall from this ensemble numerical weather prediction system are analyzed to evaluate the performance. Furthermore, a methodology, which is based on the principle of analogue prediction, is proposed to effectively process these ensemble forecasts for improving the performance on very short-term rainfall forecasting. To clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology, actual application is conducted on a mountainous watershed to yield 1- to 6-h ahead forecasts during typhoon events. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is better performed and more flexible than the conventional one. Generally, the proposed methodology provides improved performance for very short-term rainfall forecasting, especially for 1- to 2-h ahead forecasting. The improved forecasts provided by the proposed methodology are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems, such as flash-flood, landslide, and debris flow warning systems, during typhoons.

  7. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  8. Implementation of the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) in Belgium and verification of case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent

    2014-05-01

    The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) is a probabilistic precipitation nowcasting scheme developed at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in collaboration with the UK Met Office. In order to account for the multiscaling nature of rainfall structures, the radar field is decomposed into an 8 levels multiplicative cascade using a Fast Fourier Transform. The cascade is advected using the velocity field estimated with optical flow and evolves stochastically according to a hierarchy of auto-regressive processes. This allows reproducing the empirical observation that the rate of temporal evolution of the small scales is faster than the large scales. The uncertainty in radar rainfall measurement and the unknown future development of the velocity field are also considered by stochastic modelling in order to reflect their typical spatial and temporal variability. Recently, a 4 years national research program has been initiated by the University of Leuven, the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) of Belgium and 3 other partners: PLURISK ("forecasting and management of extreme rainfall induced risks in the urban environment"). The project deals with the nowcasting of rainfall and subsequent urban inundations, as well as socio-economic risk quantification, communication, warning and prevention. At the urban scale it is widely recognized that the uncertainty of hydrological and hydraulic models is largely driven by the input rainfall estimation and forecast uncertainty. In support to the PLURISK project the RMI aims at integrating STEPS in the current operational deterministic precipitation nowcasting system INCA-BE (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis). This contribution will illustrate examples of STEPS ensemble and probabilistic nowcasts for a few selected case studies of stratiform and convective rain in Belgium. The paper focuses on the development of STEPS products for potential hydrological users and a preliminary verification of the nowcasts

  9. Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Wakita, H

    1996-04-30

    The current status of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan is described. The development of the observations is discussed in relation to the progress of the earthquake prediction program in Japan. Three major findings obtained from our recent studies are outlined. (i) Long-term radon observation data over 18 years at the SKE (Suikoen) well indicate that the anomalous radon change before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake can with high probability be attributed to precursory changes. (ii) It is proposed that certain sensitive wells exist which have the potential to detect precursory changes. (iii) The appearance and nonappearance of coseismic radon drops at the KSM (Kashima) well reflect changes in the regional stress state of an observation area. In addition, some preliminary results of chemical changes of groundwater prior to the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) earthquake are presented.

  10. Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

    2011-12-01

    M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

  11. An initial investigation on developing a new method to predict short-term breast cancer risk based on deep learning technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yuchen; Wang, Yunzhi; Yan, Shiju; Tan, Maxine; Cheng, Samuel; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2016-03-01

    In order to establish a new personalized breast cancer screening paradigm, it is critically important to accurately predict the short-term risk of a woman having image-detectable cancer after a negative mammographic screening. In this study, we developed and tested a novel short-term risk assessment model based on deep learning method. During the experiment, a number of 270 "prior" negative screening cases was assembled. In the next sequential ("current") screening mammography, 135 cases were positive and 135 cases remained negative. These cases were randomly divided into a training set with 200 cases and a testing set with 70 cases. A deep learning based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) scheme was then developed for the risk assessment, which consists of two modules: adaptive feature identification module and risk prediction module. The adaptive feature identification module is composed of three pairs of convolution-max-pooling layers, which contains 20, 10, and 5 feature maps respectively. The risk prediction module is implemented by a multiple layer perception (MLP) classifier, which produces a risk score to predict the likelihood of the woman developing short-term mammography-detectable cancer. The result shows that the new CAD-based risk model yielded a positive predictive value of 69.2% and a negative predictive value of 74.2%, with a total prediction accuracy of 71.4%. This study demonstrated that applying a new deep learning technology may have significant potential to develop a new short-term risk predicting scheme with improved performance in detecting early abnormal symptom from the negative mammograms.

  12. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    PubMed

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  13. Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Jackson, D D

    1996-04-30

    Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

  14. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  15. INTEGRATION OF SHORT-TERM CO-SEISMIC DEFORMATION (InSAR) IN THE GEOMORPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ACTIVELY UPLIFTING FOOTWALL, L’AQUILA EARTHQUAKE (06 APRIL, 2009), ITALY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berti, C.; Pazzaglia, F. J.; Ramage, J. M.; Miccadei, E.; Piacentini, T.

    2009-12-01

    Central Italy is a well know region of frequent seismic activity focused along the topographic axis of the Apennines, with several, damaging > M. 5 events in the past decade. Conversely, the integrated effect of these earthquakes in shaping the long term development of the landscape is a poorly understood, but potentially powerful process in describing the region’s paleoseismicity and steadiness of hazardous earthquakes. The recent M. 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake of 06 April, 2009 ruptured a fault in a region of well-known geologic, geomorphic, and geodetic constraining data including hanging wall continental basin Quaternary deposits, footwall stream networks with distinct knickpoints, a dense GPS network, and InSAR interferometry. Collectively, the geodetic data describe the short-term, co- and immediately post-seismic behavior of the earthquake, whereas the geologic and geomorphic data record how discrete rupture events are encoded in the landscape and reflected in processes actively shaping the topography. Envisat and ALOS derived interferograms generated using ROI PAC show close spatial overlap of the InSAR-determined rupture and the Paganica fault, separating a deeply incised, uplifted carbonate footwall block and an actively subsiding Quaternary continental basin. Deposition in the continental basin has been unsteady and is commonly attributed to climate-modulated sediment flux from the uplifted footwall. We note however, that the longitudinal profiles of streams in the footwall are marked by distinct knickpoints that do not correspond to known or obvious lithologic or structural controls. Rather, the knickpoints are located a linear distance from the Paganica fault and at a topographic elevation consistent with detachment-limited stream-power erosional retreat processes instigated by instantaneous base level fall at the mountain front. Furthermore, the magnitude of river incision and elevation of the knickpoints scales with the co-seismic deformation pattern

  16. The politics of earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Olson, R.S.

    1989-01-01

    This book gives an account of the politics, scientific and public, generated from the Brady-Spence prediction of a massive earthquake to take place within several years in central Peru. Though the disaster did not happen, this examination of the events serves to highlight American scientific processes and the results of scientific interaction with the media and political bureaucracy.

  17. Risk factors and prediction of very short term versus short/intermediate term post-stroke mortality: a data mining approach.

    PubMed

    Easton, Jonathan F; Stephens, Christopher R; Angelova, Maia

    2014-11-01

    Data mining and knowledge discovery as an approach to examining medical data can limit some of the inherent bias in the hypothesis assumptions that can be found in traditional clinical data analysis. In this paper we illustrate the benefits of a data mining inspired approach to statistically analysing a bespoke data set, the academic multicentre randomised control trial, U.K Glucose Insulin in Stroke Trial (GIST-UK), with a view to discovering new insights distinct from the original hypotheses of the trial. We consider post-stroke mortality prediction as a function of days since stroke onset, showing that the time scales that best characterise changes in mortality risk are most naturally defined by examination of the mortality curve. We show that certain risk factors differentiate between very short term and intermediate term mortality. In particular, we show that age is highly relevant for intermediate term risk but not for very short or short term mortality. We suggest that this is due to the concept of frailty. Other risk factors are highlighted across a range of variable types including socio-demographics, past medical histories and admission medication. Using the most statistically significant risk factors we build predictive classification models for very short term and short/intermediate term mortality.

  18. Applications of NASA and NOAA Satellite Observations by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Response to Natural Disasters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Burks, Jason E.; McGrath, Kevin M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2012-01-01

    NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center supports the transition of unique NASA and NOAA research activities to the operational weather forecasting community. SPoRT emphasizes real-time analysis and prediction out to 48 hours. SPoRT partners with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers to improve current products, demonstrate future satellite capabilities and explore new data assimilation techniques. Recently, the SPoRT Center has been involved in several activities related to disaster response, in collaboration with NOAA s National Weather Service, NASA s Applied Sciences Disasters Program, and other partners.

  19. Prognostic nutritional index predicts short-term outcomes after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria

    PubMed Central

    Li, Na; Ren, Yifan; Shi, Aihua; Lv, Yi; He, Haiqi

    2016-01-01

    Background The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is calculated based on the serum albumin concentration and the total lymphocyte count. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic ability of the PNI for postoperative complications after liver resection to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within the Milan criteria. Results Postoperative complications were observed in 166 (44.6%) patients. The optimal cutoff value of the PNI was set at 45.6 for postoperative complications. Patients in the PNI-low (PNI < 45.6) group were more likely to have postoperative complications, more blood loss, a longer surgery time and a longer hospital stay than patients in the PNI-high group (PNI > 45.6). Our regression analysis demonstrated that the preoperative PNI and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score were significantly associated with postoperative complications (Pearson correlation coefficient, -0.865, p < 0.001). The multivariate analysis revealed that the PNI was an independent predictor of postoperative complications. Materials and Methods Three-hundred and seventy-two patients who underwent partial hepatectomy for HCC from 2003 to 2014 were identified. The cutoff value of the PNI was determined by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify clinicopathological features associated with postoperative complications. Conclusion The PNI may be a significant prognostic factor for evaluating short-term outcomes of patients with HCC after partial hepatectomy. PMID:27835570

  20. Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherburne, R. W.

    1979-01-01

    Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

  1. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Keilis-Borok, V I

    1996-01-01

    An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 PMID:11607660

  2. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Keilis-Borok, V I

    1996-04-30

    An earthquake of magnitude M and linear source dimension L(M) is preceded within a few years by certain patterns of seismicity in the magnitude range down to about (M - 3) in an area of linear dimension about 5L-10L. Prediction algorithms based on such patterns may allow one to predict approximately 80% of strong earthquakes with alarms occupying altogether 20-30% of the time-space considered. An area of alarm can be narrowed down to 2L-3L when observations include lower magnitudes, down to about (M - 4). In spite of their limited accuracy, such predictions open a possibility to prevent considerable damage. The following findings may provide for further development of prediction methods: (i) long-range correlations in fault system dynamics and accordingly large size of the areas over which different observed fields could be averaged and analyzed jointly, (ii) specific symptoms of an approaching strong earthquake, (iii) the partial similarity of these symptoms worldwide, (iv) the fact that some of them are not Earth specific: we probably encountered in seismicity the symptoms of instability common for a wide class of nonlinear systems.

  3. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  4. The Predictive Validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for Multiple Adverse Outcomes in a Secure Psychiatric Inpatient Setting.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Laura E; Picchioni, Marco M; Dickens, Geoffrey L

    2016-04-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) aims to assist mental health practitioners to estimate an individual's short-term risk for a range of adverse outcomes via structured consideration of their risk ("Vulnerabilities") and protective factors ("Strengths") in 20 areas. It has demonstrated predictive validity for aggression but this is less established for other outcomes. We collated START assessments for N = 200 adults in a secure mental health hospital and ascertained 3-month risk event incidence using the START Outcomes Scale. The specific risk estimates, which are the tool developers' suggested method of overall assessment, predicted aggression, self-harm/suicidality, and victimization, and had incremental validity over the Strength and Vulnerability scales for these outcomes. The Strength scale had incremental validity over the Vulnerability scale for aggressive outcomes; therefore, consideration of protective factors had demonstrable value in their prediction. Further evidence is required to support use of the START for the full range of outcomes it aims to predict.

  5. Predicting Sexual Harassment From Hostile Sexism and Short-Term Mating Orientation: Relative Strength of Predictors Depends on Situational Priming of Power Versus Sex.

    PubMed

    Diehl, Charlotte; Rees, Jonas; Bohner, Gerd

    2016-12-09

    Previous research has shown that short-term mating orientation (STMO) and hostile sexism (HS) selectively predict different types of sexual harassment. In a priming experiment, we studied the situational malleability of those effects. Male participants could repeatedly send sexist jokes (gender harassment), harassing remarks (unwanted sexual attention), or nonharassing messages to a (computer-simulated) female target. Before entering the laboratory, participants were unobtrusively primed with the concepts of either sexuality or power. As hypothesized, sexuality priming strengthened the link between STMO and unwanted sexual attention, whereas power priming strengthened the link between HS and gender harassment. Practical implications are discussed.

  6. Recent earthquake prediction research in Japan.

    PubMed

    Mogi, K

    1986-07-18

    Japan has experienced many major earthquake disasters in the past. Early in this century research began that was aimed at predicting the occurrence of earthquakes, and in 1965 an earthquake prediction program was started as a national project. In 1978 a program for constant monitoring and assessment was formally inaugurated with the goal of forecasting the major earthquake that is expected to occur in the near future in the Tokai district of central Honshu Island. The issue of predicting the anticipated Tokai earthquake is discussed in this article as well as the results of research on major recent earthquakes in Japan-the Izu earthquakes (1978 and 1980) and the Japan Sea earthquake (1983).

  7. Predicting short-term institutional aggression in forensic patients: a multi-trait method for understanding subtypes of aggression.

    PubMed

    Vitacco, Michael J; Van Rybroek, Gregory J; Rogstad, Jill E; Yahr, Laura E; Tomony, James D; Saewert, Emily

    2009-08-01

    Accurately predicting inpatient aggression is an important endeavor. The current study investigated inpatient aggression over a six-month time period in a sample of 152 male forensic patients. We assessed constructs of psychopathy, anger, and active symptoms of mental illness and tested their ability to predict reactive and instrumental aggression. Across all levels of analyses, anger and active symptoms of mental illness predicted reactive aggression. Traits of psychopathy, which demonstrated no relationship to reactive aggression, were a robust predictor of instrumental aggression. This study (a) reestablishes psychopathy as a clinically useful construct in predicting inpatient instrumental aggression, (b) provides some validation for the reactive/instrumental aggression paradigm in forensic inpatients, and (c) makes recommendations for integrating risk assessment results into treatment interventions.

  8. Does the stress response predict the ability of wild birds to adjust to short-term captivity? A study of the rock pigeon (Columbia livia)

    PubMed Central

    Parenteau, Charline; Trouvé, Colette; Angelier, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    Although the transfer of wild animals to captivity is crucial for conservation purposes, this process is often challenging because some species or individuals do not adjust well to captive conditions. Chronic stress has been identified as a major concern for animals held on long-term captivity. Surprisingly, the first hours or days of captivity have been relatively overlooked. However, they are certainly very stressful, because individuals are being transferred to a totally novel and confined environment. To ensure the success of conservation programmes, it appears crucial to better understand the proximate causes of interspecific and interindividual variability in the sensitivity to these first hours of captivity. In that respect, the study of stress hormones is relevant, because the hormonal stress response may help to assess whether specific individuals or species adjust, or not, to such captive conditions (‘the stress response-adjustment to captivity hypothesis’). We tested this hypothesis in rock pigeons by measuring their corticosterone stress response and their ability to adjust to short-term captivity (body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels after a day of captivity). We showed that an increased corticosterone stress response is associated with a lower ability to adjust to short-term captivity (i.e. higher body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels). Our study suggests, therefore, that a low physiological sensitivity to stress may be beneficial for adjusting to captivity. Future studies should now explore whether the stress response can be useful to predict the ability of individuals from different populations or species to not only adjust to short-term but also long-term captivity. PMID:28083117

  9. Does the stress response predict the ability of wild birds to adjust to short-term captivity? A study of the rock pigeon (Columbia livia).

    PubMed

    Angelier, Frédéric; Parenteau, Charline; Trouvé, Colette; Angelier, Nicole

    2016-12-01

    Although the transfer of wild animals to captivity is crucial for conservation purposes, this process is often challenging because some species or individuals do not adjust well to captive conditions. Chronic stress has been identified as a major concern for animals held on long-term captivity. Surprisingly, the first hours or days of captivity have been relatively overlooked. However, they are certainly very stressful, because individuals are being transferred to a totally novel and confined environment. To ensure the success of conservation programmes, it appears crucial to better understand the proximate causes of interspecific and interindividual variability in the sensitivity to these first hours of captivity. In that respect, the study of stress hormones is relevant, because the hormonal stress response may help to assess whether specific individuals or species adjust, or not, to such captive conditions ('the stress response-adjustment to captivity hypothesis'). We tested this hypothesis in rock pigeons by measuring their corticosterone stress response and their ability to adjust to short-term captivity (body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels after a day of captivity). We showed that an increased corticosterone stress response is associated with a lower ability to adjust to short-term captivity (i.e. higher body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels). Our study suggests, therefore, that a low physiological sensitivity to stress may be beneficial for adjusting to captivity. Future studies should now explore whether the stress response can be useful to predict the ability of individuals from different populations or species to not only adjust to short-term but also long-term captivity.

  10. Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for model-based flow prediction in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas; Borup, Morten; Ahm, Malte; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Grum, Morten; Rasmussen, Michael R; Gill, Rasphall; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2013-01-01

    Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast - a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real-time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 h. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short lead times and the weather model for larger lead times.

  11. Short-term prediction of rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links at EHF band

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Montera, L.; Mallet, C.; Barthès, L.; Golé, P.

    2008-08-01

    This paper shows how nonlinear models originally developed in the finance field can be used to predict rain attenuation level and volatility in Earth-to-Satellite links operating at the Extremely High Frequencies band (EHF, 20 50 GHz). A common approach to solving this problem is to consider that the prediction error corresponds only to scintillations, whose variance is assumed to be constant. Nevertheless, this assumption does not seem to be realistic because of the heteroscedasticity of error time series: the variance of the prediction error is found to be time-varying and has to be modeled. Since rain attenuation time series behave similarly to certain stocks or foreign exchange rates, a switching ARIMA/GARCH model was implemented. The originality of this model is that not only the attenuation level, but also the error conditional distribution are predicted. It allows an accurate upper-bound of the future attenuation to be estimated in real time that minimizes the cost of Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) and therefore enables the communication system to reach a high percentage of availability. The performance of the switching ARIMA/GARCH model was estimated using a measurement database of the Olympus satellite 20/30 GHz beacons and this model is shown to outperform significantly other existing models. The model also includes frequency scaling from the downlink frequency to the uplink frequency. The attenuation effects (gases, clouds and rain) are first separated with a neural network and then scaled using specific scaling factors. As to the resulting uplink prediction error, the error contribution of the frequency scaling step is shown to be larger than that of the downlink prediction, indicating that further study should focus on improving the accuracy of the scaling factor.

  12. An Interval-Valued Neural Network Approach for Uncertainty Quantification in Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ak, Ronay; Vitelli, Valeria; Zio, Enrico

    2015-11-01

    We consider the task of performing prediction with neural networks (NNs) on the basis of uncertain input data expressed in the form of intervals. We aim at quantifying the uncertainty in the prediction arising from both the input data and the prediction model. A multilayer perceptron NN is trained to map interval-valued input data onto interval outputs, representing the prediction intervals (PIs) of the real target values. The NN training is performed by nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II, so that the PIs are optimized both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and dimension (width). Demonstration of the proposed method is given in two case studies: 1) a synthetic case study, in which the data have been generated with a 5-min time frequency from an autoregressive moving average model with either Gaussian or Chi-squared innovation distribution and 2) a real case study, in which experimental data consist of wind speed measurements with a time step of 1 h. Comparisons are given with a crisp (single-valued) approach. The results show that the crisp approach is less reliable than the interval-valued input approach in terms of capturing the variability in input.

  13. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  14. The parkfield, california, earthquake prediction experiment.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Lindh, A G

    1985-08-16

    Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment.

  15. Predicting Short-Term Positive Affect in Individuals with Social Anxiety Disorder: The Role of Selected Personality Traits and Emotion Regulation Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Weisman, Jaclyn S.; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Lim, Michelle H.; Fernandez, Katya C.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, research has provided support for a moderate, inverse relationship between social anxiety and dispositional positive affect. However, the dynamics of this relationship remain poorly understood. The present study evaluates whether certain personality traits and emotion regulation variables predict short-term positive affect for individuals with social anxiety disorder and healthy controls. Positive affect as measured by two self-report instruments was assessed before and after two tasks in which the participant conversed with either a friend or a romantic partner. Tests of models examining the hypothesized prospective predictors revealed that the paths did not differ significantly across diagnostic group and both groups showed the hypothesized patterns of endorsement for the emotion regulation variables. Further, a variable reflecting difficulty redirecting oneself when distressed prospectively predicted one measure of positive affect. Additional research is needed to explore further the role of emotion regulation strategies on positive emotions for individuals higher in social anxiety. PMID:26119140

  16. Predicting short-term positive affect in individuals with social anxiety disorder: The role of selected personality traits and emotion regulation strategies.

    PubMed

    Weisman, Jaclyn S; Rodebaugh, Thomas L; Lim, Michelle H; Fernandez, Katya C

    2015-08-01

    Recently, research has provided support for a moderate, inverse relationship between social anxiety and dispositional positive affect. However, the dynamics of this relationship remain poorly understood. The present study evaluates whether certain personality traits and emotion regulation variables predict short-term positive affect for individuals with social anxiety disorder and healthy controls. Positive affect as measured by two self-report instruments was assessed before and after two tasks in which the participant conversed with either a friend or a romantic partner. Tests of models examining the hypothesized prospective predictors revealed that the paths did not differ significantly across diagnostic group and both groups showed the hypothesized patterns of endorsement for the emotion regulation variables. Further, a variable reflecting difficulty redirecting oneself when distressed prospectively predicted one measure of positive affect. Additional research is needed to explore further the role of emotion regulation strategies on positive emotions for individuals higher in social anxiety.

  17. Short-term predictive validity of the static-99 and static-99-R for indigenous and nonindigenous Australian sexual offenders.

    PubMed

    Smallbone, Stephen; Rallings, Mark

    2013-06-01

    Actuarial risk assessment (Static-99 and Static-99-R) scores were obtained for 399 Australian adult sexual offenders who were subsequently released from prison and followed up with searches of police arrest records (mean follow-up period = 29 months; range = 15-53 months). Indigenous offenders (n = 67; 16.8%) scored significantly higher on both the Static-99 (M = 4.04 vs. 2.89, p < .001) and Static-99-R (M = 3.72 vs. 2.22, p < .001), were more than twice as likely to be arrested for sexual offenses (9.0% vs. 4.1%, ns), and were significantly more likely to be arrested for nonsexual violent (28.4% vs. 1.9%, p < .001), any violent (including sexual; 37% vs. 5.9%, p < .001), and any offenses (58.2% vs. 21.6%, p < .001). For the combined groups, predictive accuracy of both instruments was comparable to results reported elsewhere. Predictive accuracy of the Static-99 was similar for indigenous and nonindigenous offenders. The Static-99-R was only marginally predictive of any violent recidivism (AUC = .65, 95% CI = [.52, .79]), and did not predict sexual (AUC = .61, 95% CI = [.45, .77]) or nonsexual violent recidivism (AUC = .65, 95% CI = [.48, .78]), for indigenous offenders. Higher risk scores, indigenous race, and unsupervised release all contributed unique variance to any violent recidivism. Results suggest that the Static-99 may be appropriate for assessing Australian indigenous sexual offenders, but more research is needed to test the validity of the Static-99-R for this population. We conclude that practitioners should consider the potential effects of racial differences and postrelease factors, as well as static risk factors, in their assessments.

  18. Relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing based on multi-source data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ni, X. Y.; Huang, H.; Du, W. P.

    2017-02-01

    The PM2.5 problem is proving to be a major public crisis and is of great public-concern requiring an urgent response. Information about, and prediction of PM2.5 from the perspective of atmospheric dynamic theory is still limited due to the complexity of the formation and development of PM2.5. In this paper, we attempted to realize the relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China, using multi-source data mining. A correlation analysis model of PM2.5 to physical data (meteorological data, including regional average rainfall, daily mean temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, and other pollutant concentration data, including CO, NO2, SO2, PM10) and social media data (microblog data) was proposed, based on the Multivariate Statistical Analysis method. The study found that during these factors, the value of average wind speed, the concentrations of CO, NO2, PM10, and the daily number of microblog entries with key words 'Beijing; Air pollution' show high mathematical correlation with PM2.5 concentrations. The correlation analysis was further studied based on a big data's machine learning model- Back Propagation Neural Network (hereinafter referred to as BPNN) model. It was found that the BPNN method performs better in correlation mining. Finally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (hereinafter referred to as ARIMA) Time Series model was applied in this paper to explore the prediction of PM2.5 in the short-term time series. The predicted results were in good agreement with the observed data. This study is useful for helping realize real-time monitoring, analysis and pre-warning of PM2.5 and it also helps to broaden the application of big data and the multi-source data mining methods.

  19. Global empirical model of TEC response to geomagnetic activity: Short-term (24 hours ahead) prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andonov, Borislav

    2013-04-01

    A global empirical model of the rTEC=(TECobs-TECmed)/TECmed depending on the geomagnetic activity (described by the Kp-index) and at a given moment is built by using global TEC data for full 13 years between 1999 and 2011.The data are downloaded from the CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) database in the Astronomical Institute, University of Bern. By using a 2D cross-correlation analysis it is found that the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic activity revealed both positive and negative phases of the response. The both phases of the ionospheric response have different duration and time delay with respect to the geomagnetic storm. It was found that these two parameters of the ionospheric response depend on the season, geographical/geomagnetic coordinates and local time. The rTEC response is represented by 2D (longitude-time) sine waves with different zonal wavenumbers and periods being harmonics of the diurnal period. The input data for the current and predicted geomagnetic activity are obtained from the MAK model developed in NIGGG-BAS, which uses the solar wind measurements from the ACE satellite. The background condition is defined by the recent CODE TEC maps. For each current hour the model provides predicted global TEC maps in geographic frame for the next 24 hours.

  20. Short-Term Prediction of Traffic Rate Interval Router Using Hybrid Training of Dynamic Synapse Neural Network Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakiba, M.; Teshnehlab, M.; Zokaie, S.; Zakermoshfegh, M.

    In this study, a hybrid learning algorithm for training the Dynamic Synapse Neural Network (DSNN) to high accurate prediction of congestion in TCP computer networks is introduced. The idea behind this technique is to inform the TCP transmitters of congestion before it happens and to make transmitters decrease their data sending rate to a level which does not overflow the routers buffer. Traffic rate data are available in the format of time series and these real data are used to train and predict the future traffic rate condition. Hybrid learning algorithm aims to solve main problems of the Gradient Descent (GD) based method for the optimization of the DSNN, which are instability, local minima and the problem of generalization of trained network to the test data. In this method, Adaptable Weighted Particle Swarm Optimization (AWPSO) as a global optimizer is used to optimize the parameters of synaptic plasticity and the GD algorithm is used to optimize the weighted parameters of DSNN. As AWPSO is a derivative free optimization technique, a simpler method for the train of DSNN is achieved. Also the results are compared to GD algorithm.

  1. Value of intravoxel incoherent motion and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI for predicting the early and short-term responses to chemoradiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Jing; Yu, Xiaoping; Hu, Yin; Li, Feiping; Xiang, Wang; Wang, Lanlan; Wang, Hui; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Zhongping; Zeng, Wenbin

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of the study was to investigate the value of intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (IVIM-DWI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in predicting the early and short-term responses to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Forty-three NPC patients underwent IVIM-DWI and DCE-MRI at baseline (pretreatment) and after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy (posttreatment). Based on whether locoregional lesions were identified, patients were divided into the residual and nonresidual groups at the end of CRT and into the good-responder and poor-responder groups 6 months after the end of CRT. The pretreatment and posttreatment IVIM-DWI parameters (ADC, D, D∗, and f) and DCE-MRI parameters (Ktrans, Kep, and Ve) values and their percentage changes (Δ%) were compared between the residual and nonresidual groups and between the good-responder and poor-responder groups. None of perfusion-related parametric values derived from either DCE-MRI or IVIM-DWI showed significant differences either between the residual and nonresidual groups or between the good-responder and poor-responder groups. The nonresidual group exhibited lower pre-ADC, lower pre-D, and higher Δ%D values than did the residual group (all P <0.05). The good-responder group had lower pre-D and pre-ADC values than did the poor-responder group (both P <0.05). Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, pre-D had the highest area under the curve in predicting both the early and short-term responses to CRT for NPC patients (0.817 and 0.854, respectively). IVIM-DWI is more valuable than DCE-MRI in predicting the early and short-term response to CRT for NPC, and furthermore diffusion-related IVIM-DWI parameters (pre-ADC, pre-D, and Δ%D) are more powerful than perfusion-related parameters derived from both IVIM-DWI and DCE-MRI. PMID:27583847

  2. The ethics of earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sol, Ayhan; Turan, Halil

    2004-10-01

    Scientists' responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.

  3. Global integration of the hot-state brain network of appetite predicts short term weight loss in older adult

    PubMed Central

    Paolini, Brielle M.; Laurienti, Paul J.; Simpson, Sean L.; Burdette, Jonathan H.; Lyday, Robert G.; Rejeski, W. Jack

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is a public health crisis in North America. While lifestyle interventions for weight loss (WL) remain popular, the rate of success is highly variable. Clearly, self-regulation of eating behavior is a challenge and patterns of activity across the brain may be an important determinant of success. The current study prospectively examined whether integration across the Hot-State Brain Network of Appetite (HBN-A) predicts WL after 6-months of treatment in older adults. Our metric for network integration was global efficiency (GE). The present work is a sub-study (n = 56) of an ongoing randomized clinical trial involving WL. Imaging involved a baseline food-cue visualization functional MRI (fMRI) scan following an overnight fast. Using graph theory to build functional brain networks, we demonstrated that regions of the HBN-A (insula, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), superior temporal pole (STP), amygdala and the parahippocampal gyrus) were highly integrated as evidenced by the results of a principal component analysis (PCA). After accounting for known correlates of WL (baseline weight, age, sex, and self-regulatory efficacy) and treatment condition, which together contributed 36.9% of the variance in WL, greater GE in the HBN-A was associated with an additional 19% of the variance. The ACC of the HBN-A was the primary driver of this effect, accounting for 14.5% of the variance in WL when entered in a stepwise regression following the covariates, p = 0.0001. The HBN-A is comprised of limbic regions important in the processing of emotions and visceral sensations and the ACC is key for translating such processing into behavioral consequences. The improved integration of these regions may enhance awareness of body and emotional states leading to more successful self-regulation and to greater WL. This is the first study among older adults to prospectively demonstrate that, following an overnight fast, GE of the HBN-A during a food visualization task is predictive of

  4. Global integration of the hot-state brain network of appetite predicts short term weight loss in older adult.

    PubMed

    Paolini, Brielle M; Laurienti, Paul J; Simpson, Sean L; Burdette, Jonathan H; Lyday, Robert G; Rejeski, W Jack

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is a public health crisis in North America. While lifestyle interventions for weight loss (WL) remain popular, the rate of success is highly variable. Clearly, self-regulation of eating behavior is a challenge and patterns of activity across the brain may be an important determinant of success. The current study prospectively examined whether integration across the Hot-State Brain Network of Appetite (HBN-A) predicts WL after 6-months of treatment in older adults. Our metric for network integration was global efficiency (GE). The present work is a sub-study (n = 56) of an ongoing randomized clinical trial involving WL. Imaging involved a baseline food-cue visualization functional MRI (fMRI) scan following an overnight fast. Using graph theory to build functional brain networks, we demonstrated that regions of the HBN-A (insula, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), superior temporal pole (STP), amygdala and the parahippocampal gyrus) were highly integrated as evidenced by the results of a principal component analysis (PCA). After accounting for known correlates of WL (baseline weight, age, sex, and self-regulatory efficacy) and treatment condition, which together contributed 36.9% of the variance in WL, greater GE in the HBN-A was associated with an additional 19% of the variance. The ACC of the HBN-A was the primary driver of this effect, accounting for 14.5% of the variance in WL when entered in a stepwise regression following the covariates, p = 0.0001. The HBN-A is comprised of limbic regions important in the processing of emotions and visceral sensations and the ACC is key for translating such processing into behavioral consequences. The improved integration of these regions may enhance awareness of body and emotional states leading to more successful self-regulation and to greater WL. This is the first study among older adults to prospectively demonstrate that, following an overnight fast, GE of the HBN-A during a food visualization task is predictive of

  5. Patterns of waste generation: A gradient boosting model for short-term waste prediction in New York City.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Nicholas E; Ianiuk, Olga; Cazap, Daniel; Liu, Linglan; Starobin, Daniel; Dobler, Gregory; Ghandehari, Masoud

    2017-02-15

    Historical municipal solid waste (MSW) collection data supplied by the New York City Department of Sanitation (DSNY) was used in conjunction with other datasets related to New York City to forecast municipal solid waste generation across the city. Spatiotemporal tonnage data from the DSNY was combined with external data sets, including the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics data, the American Community Survey, the New York City Department of Finance's Primary Land Use and Tax Lot Output data, and historical weather data to build a Gradient Boosting Regression Model. The model was trained on historical data from 2005 to 2011 and validation was performed both temporally and spatially. With this model, we are able to accurately (R2>0.88) forecast weekly MSW generation tonnages for each of the 232 geographic sections in NYC across three waste streams of refuse, paper and metal/glass/plastic. Importantly, the model identifies regularity of urban waste generation and is also able to capture very short timescale fluctuations associated to holidays, special events, seasonal variations, and weather related events. This research shows New York City's waste generation trends and the importance of comprehensive data collection (especially weather patterns) in order to accurately predict waste generation.

  6. Signal Detection and Earthquake Catalogue Development Using a Short-term, Over 800-station, Mixed-mode Seismic Array Deployed Above the Socorro Magma Body, NM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilek, S. L.; Schmandt, B.; Hansen, S. M.; Worthington, L. L.; Aster, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    Magma movement and emplacement within the crust is an important aspect to understanding crustal formation and deformation. The 19-km deep Socorro Magma Body, the second largest mid-crustal continental magma body known worldwide, produces measurable crustal deformation and seismicity within the Rio Grande Rift region in central New Mexico. There have been a variety of studies to estimate the location and size of this feature as well as possible changes related to magma or fluid migration. The extent of the feature has been previously estimated by observation of reflected phases arising from earthquakes located above the feature recorded by a sparse local seismic network. To improve our understanding of the spatial extent of the Socorro Magma Body, we deployed a mixed mode seismic array for 2 weeks over the northern portion of the magma body consisting of 7 3-component broadband seismometers and over 800 Fairfield vertical-component autonomous node seismographs with integral 10 Hz seismometers. This array will allow for us to improve our estimates of spatial extent of the body and possible heterogeneities resulting from fluid or magma migration at shallower depths. Here we focus on initial steps to analyze this large volume of data, in conjunction with other local and regional seismic stations, to determine a local and teleseismic earthquake catalog during the deployment time period. These earthquakes will then be used to probe the structure of the Socorro Magma Body and its surroundings. We employ multiple strategies for building this catalog, including standard amplitude-based detection tools with the broadband data, triggering algorithms with the node data, and back-projection of the node data over limited sections of the array. Initial results suggest a number of previously undetected earthquakes located beneath the array, as well as regional events from an earthquake sequence in Arizona.

  7. Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN usingimages of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN. PMID:26447470

  8. Use of a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment to Predict Short-Term Postoperative Outcome in Elderly Patients With Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Yoon Hyun; Oh, Heung-Kwon; Ihn, Myong Hoon; Kim, Jee Hyun; Son, Il Tae; Kang, Sung Il; Kim, Gwang Il; Ahn, Soyeon; Kang, Sung-Bum

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study was conducted to identify the effectiveness of a preoperative comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for predicting postoperative morbidity in elderly patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer. Methods Elderly patients (≥70 years old) who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer at a tertiary hospital in Korea were identified, and their cases were analyzed using data from a prospectively collected database to establish an association between major postsurgical complications and 'high-risk' patient as defined by the CGA. Results A total of 240 patients, with a mean age of 76.7 ± 5.2 years, were enrolled. Ninety-five patients (39.6%) were classified as "high-risk" and 99 patients (41.3%) as having postoperative complications. The univariate analysis indicated that risk factors for postoperative complications were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, serum hemoglobin, carcinoembryonic antigen, cancer stage, and "high-risk" status. The multivariable analyses indicated that "high-risk" status (odds ratio, 2.107; 95% confidence interval, 1.168–3.804; P = 0.013) and elevated preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (odds ratio, 2.561; 95% confidence interval, 1.346–4.871, P = 0.004) were independently associated with postoperative complications. A multivariable analysis of the individual CGA domains indicated that high comorbidities and low activities of daily living were significantly related with postoperative complications. Conclusion A preoperative CGA indicating "high-risk" was associated with major postoperative complications in elderly patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer. Thus, using the CGA to identify elderly colorectal-cancer patients who should be given more care during postoperative management may be clinically beneficial. PMID:27847786

  9. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G.; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R.; Vashist, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score. PMID:26886613

  10. Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cabarrou, B; Belin, L; Somda, S M; Falcou, M C; Pierga, J Y; Kirova, Y; Delord, J P; Asselain, B; Filleron, T

    2016-04-01

    Use of parametric statistical models can be a solution to reduce the follow-up period time required to estimate long-term survival. Mould and Boag were the first to use the lognormal model. Competing risks methodology seems more suitable when a particular event type is of interest than classical survival analysis. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the Jeong and Fine model to predict long-term cumulative incidence. Survival data recorded by Institut Curie (Paris) from 4761 breast cancer patients treated and followed between 1981 and 2013 were used. Long-term cumulative incidence rates predicted by the model using short-term follow-up data were compared to non-parametric estimation using complete follow-up data. 20- or 25-year cumulative incidence rates for loco-regional recurrence and distant metastasis predicted by the model using a maximum of 10 years of follow-up data had a maximum difference of around 6 % compared to non-parametric estimation. Prediction rates were underestimated for the third and composite event (contralateral or second cancer or death). Predictive ability of Jeong and Fine model on breast cancer data was generally good considering the short follow-up period time used for the estimation especially when a proportion of patient did not experience loco-regional recurrence or distant metastasis.

  11. Raising the science awareness of first year undergraduate students via an earthquake prediction seminar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilstrap, T. D.

    2011-12-01

    The public is fascinated with and fearful of natural hazards such as earthquakes. After every major earthquake there is a surge of interest in earthquake science and earthquake prediction. Yet many people do not understand the challenges of earthquake prediction and the need to fund earthquake research. An earthquake prediction seminar is offered to first year undergraduate students to improve their understanding of why earthquakes happen, how earthquake research is done and more specifically why it is so challenging to issue short-term earthquake prediction. Some of these students may become scientists but most will not. For the majority this is an opportunity to learn how science research works and how it is related to policy and society. The seminar is seven weeks long, two hours per week and has been taught every year for the last four years. The material is presented conceptually; there is very little quantitative work involved. The class starts with a field trip to the Randolph College Seismic Station where students learn about seismographs and the different types of seismic waves. Students are then provided with basic background on earthquakes. They learn how to pick arrival times using real seismograms, how to use earthquake catalogues, how to predict the arrival of an earthquake wave at any location on Earth. Next they learn about long, intermediate, short and real time earthquake prediction. Discussions are an essential part of the seminar. Students are challenged to draw their own conclusions on the pros and cons of earthquake prediction. Time is designated to discuss the political and economic impact of earthquake prediction. At the end of the seven weeks students are required to write a paper and discuss the need for earthquake prediction. The class is not focused on the science but rather the links between the science issues and their economical and political impact. Weekly homework assignments are used to aid and assess students' learning. Pre and

  12. Earthquake Prediction: Is It Better Not to Know?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MOSAIC, 1977

    1977-01-01

    Discusses economic, social and political consequences of earthquake prediction. Reviews impact of prediction on China's recent (February, 1975) earthquake. Diagrams a chain of likely economic consequences from predicting an earthquake. (CS)

  13. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  14. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  15. Correlation of the Virological Response to Short-Term Maraviroc Monotherapy with Standard and Deep-Sequencing-Based Genotypic Tropism Prediction Methods

    PubMed Central

    Gonzalez-Serna, A.; McGovern, R. A.; Harrigan, P. R.; Vidal, F.; Poon, A. F. Y.; Ferrando-Martinez, S.; Abad, M. A.; Genebat, M.; Leal, M.

    2012-01-01

    Genotypic tropism testing methods are emerging as the first step before prescription of the CCR5 antagonist maraviroc (MVC) to HIV-infected patients in Europe. Studies validating genotypic tests have included other active drugs that could have potentially convoluted the effects of MVC. The maraviroc clinical test (MCT) is an in vivo drug sensitivity test based on the virological response to a short-term exposure to MVC monotherapy. Thus, our aim was to compare the results of genotypic tropism testing methods with the short-term virological response to MVC monotherapy. A virological response in the MCT was defined as a ≥1-log10 decrease in HIV RNA or undetectability after 8 days of drug exposure. Seventy-three patients undergoing the MCT were included in this study. We used both standard genotypic methods (n = 73) and deep sequencing (n = 27) on MCT samples at baseline. For the standard methods, the most widely used genotypic algorithms for analyzing the V3 loop sequence, geno2pheno and PSSM, were used. For deep sequencing, the geno2pheno algorithm was used with a false-positive rate cutoff of 3.5. The discordance rates between the standard genotypic methods and the virological response were approximately 20% (including mostly patients without a virological response). Interestingly, these discordance rates were similar to that obtained from deep sequencing (18.5%). The discordance rates between the genotypic methods (tropism assays predictive of the use of the CCR5 coreceptor) and the MCT (in vivo MVC sensitivity assay) indicate that the algorithms used by genotypic methods are still not sufficiently optimized. PMID:22143533

  16. Short-Term Surveillance of Cytokines and C-Reactive Protein Cannot Predict Efficacy of Fecal Microbiota Transplantation for Ulcerative Colitis

    PubMed Central

    Li, Pan; He, Zhi; Long, Chuyan; Wei, Lu; Peng, Zhaoyuan; Ji, Guozhong; Zhang, Faming

    2016-01-01

    Objective There were no reports on predicting long-term efficacy of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) for ulcerative colitis (UC). This study aimed to detect short-term changes of cytokines and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with UC undergoing FMT, and to evaluate the predictive value of CRP and cytokines for the long-term efficacy of FMT. Methods Nineteen patients with moderate to severe UC (Mayo score ≥ 6) were treated with single fresh FMT through mid-gut. Serum samples were collected before and three days post-FMT. Clinical responses were evaluated by a minimum follow-up of three months. Patients with clinical improvement and remission at the assessment point of three-month were included as response group, while patients without clinical improvement or remission were included as non-response group. Serum concentrations of cytokines (IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-11, IL-17A, IFN-γ, TNF, TNFR-1, TNFR-2, MCP-1, G-CSF, GM-CSF) and CRP were assayed to predict the clinical response of FMT. Results In total, 10.5% (2/19) of patients achieved clinical remission and 47.4% (9/19) achieved clinical improvement (Response group, including clinical remission and clinical improvement), 42.1% (8/19) failed to benefit from FMT (Non-response group). In both Response group and Non-response group, the level of CRP at three days after FMT didn’t show significant decrease compared with that before FMT (p>0.05). However, in Response group, CRP level at three months after FMT decreased significantly than that before FMT (p<0.05). Compared with healthy controls (n = 9), patients with UC showed a higher baseline level of serum IL-6, TNFR-2 and G-CSF, and a lower level of IL-2 and IL-4 (p<0.05). In both Response group and Non-response group, none of the eleven detectable cytokines showed a significant difference between the value at three days after FMT and that before FMT (p>0.05). Conclusions Patients with moderate to severe UC presented a complex disorder of

  17. A short-term predictor of satellite-observed fire activity in the North American boreal forest: Toward improving the prediction of smoke emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, David; Hyer, Edward; Wang, Jun

    2013-06-01

    A statistical model, based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), is developed to predict the subsequent day's satellite observations of fire activity in the North American boreal forest during the fire season (24-h forecast). In conjunction with the six components of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and other NWP outputs, fire data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) are used to examine the meteorological separability between the largest fire growth and decay events, with a focus on central Alaska during the large fire season of 2004. This combined information is analyzed in three steps including a maximum likelihood classification, multiple regression, and empirical correction, from which the meteorological effects on fire growth and decay are statistically established to construct the fire prediction model. Both MODIS and GOES fire observations show that the NWP-based fire prediction model is an improvement over the forecast of persistence commonly used by near-real-time fire emission inventories. Results from an independent test (2005 fire season) show that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of predicted MODIS fire observations is reduced by 5.2% compared with a persistence forecast. Improvements are strongest (RMSE reduction of 11.4%) for cases with observed decay or extinction of fires. Similar results are obtained from additional independent tests using the 2004 and 2005 GOES satellite fire observations. This study uniquely demonstrates the value and importance of combining NWP data and satellite fire observations to predict biomass-burning emissions, which is a critical step toward producing a global short-term fire prediction model and improving operational forecasts of smoke transport at large spatial scales.

  18. Short-term effects of medetomidine on photosynthesis and protein synthesis in periphyton, epipsammon and plankton communities in relation to predicted environmental concentrations.

    PubMed

    Ohlauson, Cecilia; Eriksson, Karl Martin; Blanck, Hans

    2012-01-01

    Medetomidine is a new antifouling substance, highly effective against barnacles. As part of a thorough ecotoxicological evaluation of medetomidine, its short-term effects on algal and bacterial communities were investigated and environmental concentrations were predicted with the MAMPEC model. Photosynthesis and bacterial protein synthesis for three marine communities, viz. periphyton, epipsammon and plankton were used as effect indicators, and compared with the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). The plankton community showed a significant decrease in photosynthetic activity of 16% at 2 mg l⁻¹ of medetomidine, which was the only significant effect observed. PECs were estimated for a harbor, shipping lane and marina environment using three different model scenarios (MAMPEC default, Baltic and OECD scenarios). The highest PEC of 57 ng l⁻¹, generated for a marina with the Baltic scenario, was at least 10,000-fold lower than the concentration that significantly decreased photosynthetic activity. It is concluded that medetomidine does not cause any acute toxic effects on bacterial protein synthesis and only small acute effects on photosynthesis at high concentrations in marine microbial communities. It is also concluded that the hazard from medetomidine on these processes is low since the effect levels are much lower than the highest PEC.

  19. Short term response is predictive of long term response to acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in Alzheimer’s disease: A starting point to explore Bayesian approximation in clinical practice

    PubMed Central

    Rota, Eugenia; Ferrero, Patrizia; Ursone, Rita; Migliaretti, Giuseppe

    2007-01-01

    This study was aimed at identifying, in 203 patients with Alzheimer's disease followed during long-term treatment with Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs), the predictive factors of the clinical response among cognition (MMSE), functioning (BADL and IADL) measures and age and gender at the baseline (T0). The ANCOVA test showed a significant association between MMSE scores at time T0 and T3, and the variation T9 to T0, T15 to T0 and T21 to T0 of the MMSE scores, using also gender, age and drug as covariates. The significance was higher for the patients affected by mild dementia. Regarding functional activities, a significant relationship was detected, by the ANCOVA test, only between the scores at T3 and the variation T15 to T0 for BADL, and the variation T9 to T0, T15 to T0 for IADL, respectively. Our results confirm, in a real world setting, that ChEIs provide long-term cognitive benefit, which is correlated to, and predictable by, the short-term response (within the third month) as well as the cognitive status (evaluated by means of the MMSE) at the beginning of the treatment. These factors should be the basis of any cost/effectiveness algorithm in health economic decision models. PMID:18188418

  20. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Collaborative Model for Accelerating Research into Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Lapenta, W.; Jedlovec, G.; Dodge, J.; Bradshaw, T.

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama was created to accelerate the infusion of NASA earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The principal focus of experimental products is on the regional scale with an emphasis on forecast improvements on a time scale of 0-24 hours. The SPoRT Center research is aligned with the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues ranging from convective initiation to 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The SPoRT Center, together with its other interagency partners, universities, and the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, provides a means and a process to effectively transition NASA Earth Science Enterprise observations and technology to National Weather Service operations and decision makers at both the global/national and regional scales. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future.

  1. The October 1992 Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langbein, J.

    1992-01-01

    A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.   

  2. The U.S. Earthquake Prediction Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.; Filson, J.R.

    1981-01-01

    There are two distinct motivations for earthquake prediction. The mechanistic approach aims to understand the processes leading to a large earthquake. The empirical approach is governed by the immediate need to protect lives and property. With our current lack of knowledge about the earthquake process, future progress cannot be made without gathering a large body of measurements. These are required not only for the empirical prediction of earthquakes, but also for the testing and development of hypotheses that further our understanding of the processes at work. The earthquake prediction program is basically a program of scientific inquiry, but one which is motivated by social, political, economic, and scientific reasons. It is a pursuit that cannot rely on empirical observations alone nor can it carried out solely on a blackboard or in a laboratory. Experiments must be carried out in the real Earth. 

  3. Mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin and copeptin to predict short-term prognosis of COPD exacerbations: a multicenter prospective blinded study

    PubMed Central

    Dres, Martin; Hausfater, Pierre; Foissac, Frantz; Bernard, Maguy; Joly, Luc-Marie; Sebbane, Mustapha; Philippon, Anne-Laure; Gil-Jardiné, Cédric; Schmidt, Jeannot; Maignan, Maxime; Treluyer, Jean-Marc; Roche, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    Background Exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD) are a frequent cause of emergency room (ER) visits. Predictors of early outcome could help clinicians in orientation decisions. In the current study, we investigated whether mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) and copeptin, in addition to clinical evaluation, could predict short-term outcomes. Patients and methods This prospective blinded observational study was conducted in 20 French centers. Patients admitted to the ER for an ECOPD were considered for inclusion. A clinical risk score was calculated, and MR-proADM and copeptin levels were determined from a venous blood sample. The composite primary end point comprised 30-day death or transfer to the intensive care unit or a new ER visit. Results A total of 379 patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 277 were eventually investigated for the primary end point that occurred in 66 (24%) patients. In those patients, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) MR-proADM level was 1.02 nmol/L (0.77–1.48) versus 0.83 nmol/L (0.63–1.07) in patients who did not meet the primary end point (P=0.0009). In contrast, copeptin levels were similar in patients who met or did not meet the primary end point (P=0.23). MR-proADM levels increased with increasing clinical risk score category: 0.74 nmol/L (0.57–0.89), 0.83 nmol/L (0.62–1.12) and 0.95 nmol/L (0.75–1.29) for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories, respectively (P<0.001). MR-proADM was independently associated with the primary end point (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10–2.48; P=0.015). MR-proADM predicted the occurrence of primary end point with a sensitivity of 46% (95% CI, 33%–58%) and a specificity of 79% (95% CI, 74–84). Conclusion MR-proADM but not copeptin was significantly associated with outcomes at 30 days, even after adjustment for clinical risk category. Overall, MR-proADM, alone or combined with the clinical risk score, was a moderate strong predictor of short-term

  4. Comparison Between Soluble ST2 and High-Sensitivity Troponin I in Predicting Short-Term Mortality for Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department With Chest Pain

    PubMed Central

    Marino, Rossella; Magrini, Laura; Orsini, Francesca; Russo, Veronica; Cardelli, Patrizia; Salerno, Gerardo; Hur, Mina

    2017-01-01

    Background High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and the soluble isoform of suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) are useful prognostic biomarkers in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim of this study was to test the short term prognostic value of sST2 compared with hs-cTnI in patients with chest pain. Methods Assays for hs-cTnI and sST2 were performed in 157 patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) for chest pain at arrival. In-hospital and 30-day follow-up mortalities were assessed. Results The incidence of ACS was 37%; 33 patients were diagnosed with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and 25 were diagnosed with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Compared with the no acute coronary syndrome (NO ACS) group, the median level of hs-cTnI was higher in ACS patients: 7.22 (5.24-14) pg/mL vs 68 (15.33-163.50) pg/mL (P<0.0001). In all patients, the sST2 level at arrival showed higher independent predictive power than hs-cTnI (odds ratio [OR] 20.13, P<0.0001 and OR 2.61, P<0.0008, respectively). sST2 at ED arrival showed a greater prognostic value for cardiovascular events in STEMI (area under the curve [AUC] 0.80, P<0.001) than NSTEMI patients (AUC 0.72, P<0.05). Overall, 51% of the STEMI patients with an sST2 value>35 ng/mL at ED arrival died during the 30-day follow-up. Conclusions sST2 has a greater prognostic value for 30-day cardiac mortality after discharge in patients presenting to the ED for chest pain compared with hs-cTnI. In STEMI patients, an sST2 value >35 ng/mL at ED arrival showed the highest predictive power for short-term mortality. PMID:28029000

  5. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Smith, S. W.

    1990-11-01

    Relative seismic quiescence within a region which has already been diagnosed as having entered a "Time of Increased Probability" (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake can be used to refine the locality in which the earthquake may be expected to occur. A simple algorithm with parameters fitted from the data in Northern California preceding the 1980 magnitude 7.0 earthquake offshore from Eureka depicts relative quiescence within the region of a TTP. The procedure was tested, without readaptation of parameters, on 17 other strong earthquake occurrences in North America, Japan, and Eurasia, most of which were in regions for which a TIP had been previously diagnosed. The localization algorithm successfully outlined a region within which the subsequent earthquake occurred for 16 of these 17 strong earthquakes. The area of prediction in each case was reduced significantly, ranging between 7% and 25% of the total area covered by the TIP.

  6. Pilot study on the short-term prediction of symptoms in children with hay fever monitored with e-Health technology.

    PubMed

    Costa, C; Menesatti, P; Brighetti, M A; Travaglini, A; Rimatori, V; Di Rienzo Businco, A; Pelosi, S; Bianchi, A; Matricardi, P M; Tripodi, S

    2014-11-01

    Forecasting symptoms of pollen-related allergic rhinoconjunctivitis at the level of individual patients would be useful to improve disease control and plan pharmacological intervention. Information Technology nowadays facilitates a more efficient and easier monitoring of patients with chronic diseases. We aimed this study at testing the efficiency of a model to short-term forecast symptoms of pollen-AR at the "individual" patient level. We analysed the data prospectively acquired from a group of 21 Italian children affected by pollen-related allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and recorded their symptoms and medication "Average Combined Score" (ACS) on a daily basis during April-June 2010-2011 through an informatics platform (Allergymonitor™). The dataset used for prediction included 15 variables in four categories: (A) date, (B) meteo-climatic, (C) atmospheric concentration of 5 pollen taxa, and (D) intensity of the patient's IgE sensitization. A Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis approach was used in order to predict ACS values above a fixed threshold value (0.5). The best performing predicting model correctly classified 77.8% ± 10.3% and 75.5% ± 13.2% of the recorded days in the model and test years, respectively. In this model, 9/21 patients showed ≥ 80% correct classification of the recorded days in both years. A better performance was associated with a higher degree of patient's atopic sensitization and a time lag > 1. Symptom forecasts of seasonal allergic rhinitis are possible in highly polysensitised patients in areas with complex pollen exposure. However, only predictive models tailored to the individual patient's allergic susceptibility are accurate enough. Multicenter studies in large population samples adopting the same acquisition data system on smart phones are now needed to confirm this encouraging outcome.

  7. G-Protein/β-Arrestin-Linked Fluctuating Network of G-Protein-Coupled Receptors for Predicting Drug Efficacy and Bias Using Short-Term Molecular Dynamics Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Ichikawa, Osamu; Fujimoto, Kazushi; Yamada, Atsushi; Okazaki, Susumu; Yamazaki, Kazuto

    2016-01-01

    The efficacy and bias of signal transduction induced by a drug at a target protein are closely associated with the benefits and side effects of the drug. In particular, partial agonist activity and G-protein/β-arrestin-biased agonist activity for the G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) family, the family with the most target proteins of launched drugs, are key issues in drug discovery. However, designing GPCR drugs with appropriate efficacy and bias is challenging because the dynamic mechanism of signal transduction induced by ligand—receptor interactions is complicated. Here, we identified the G-protein/β-arrestin-linked fluctuating network, which initiates large-scale conformational changes, using sub-microsecond molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the β2-adrenergic receptor (β2AR) with a diverse collection of ligands and correlation analysis of their G protein/β-arrestin efficacy. The G-protein-linked fluctuating network extends from the ligand-binding site to the G-protein-binding site through the connector region, and the β-arrestin-linked fluctuating network consists of the NPxxY motif and adjacent regions. We confirmed that the averaged values of fluctuation in the fluctuating network detected are good quantitative indexes for explaining G protein/β-arrestin efficacy. These results indicate that short-term MD simulation is a practical method to predict the efficacy and bias of any compound for GPCRs. PMID:27187591

  8. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  9. Predicting short-term outcome in well-being following suicidal behaviour: the conjoint effects of social perfectionism and positive future thinking.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Rory C; Whyte, Marie-Claire; Fraser, Louisa; Masterton, George; Miles, Jeremy; MacHale, Siobhan

    2007-07-01

    This study investigated an integrative, psychological model of suicidality involving the relationship between perfectionism and future thinking to predict short-term outcome in well-being following a suicidal episode. Two hundred and sixty-seven adults hospitalized following a self-harm episode completed a range of clinical and psychological measures in hospital and were followed up approximately two months after discharge. Hierarchical regression analyses confirmed that, among the suicidal self-harmers who had a history of repetitive self-harm (n=65), outcome among low social perfectionists changed as a function of positive future thinking such that outcome was better for those high on positive thoughts compared with those low on positive future thoughts. There was no such positive change in outcome among the high social perfectionists. There were also no significant interactive effects evident among the non-repetitive self-harmers (n=61). These findings extend recent research to suggest that socially prescribed perfectionism and positive future thinking (but not negative future thinking) are implicated in outcome following repetitive suicidality. Implications for theory and clinical practice are discussed.

  10. The PreViBOSS project: study the short term predictability of the visibility change during the Fog life cycle, from surface and satellite observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, T.; Haeffelin, M.; Ramon, D.; Gomes, L.; Brunet, F.; Vrac, M.; Yiou, P.; Hello, G.; Petithomme, H.

    2010-07-01

    Fog prejudices major activities as transport and Earth observation, by critically reducing atmospheric visibility with no continuity in time and space. Fog is also an essential factor of air quality and climate as it modifies particle properties of the surface atmospheric layer. Complexity, diversity and the fine scale of processes make uncertain by current numerical weather prediction models, not only visibility diagnosis but also fog event prediction. Extensive measurements of atmospheric parameters are made on the SIRTA since 1997 to document physical processes over the atmospheric column, in the Paris suburb area, typical of an environment intermittently under oceanic influence and affected by urban and industrial pollution. The ParisFog field campaign hosted in SIRTA during 6-month in winter 2006-2007 resulted in the deployment of instrumentation specifically dedicated to study physical processes in the fog life cycle: thermodynamical, radiative, dynamical, microphysical processes. Analysis of the measurements provided a preliminary climatology of the episodes of reduced visibility, chronology of processes was delivered by examining time series of measured parameters and a closure study was performed on optical and microphysical properties of particles (aerosols to droplets) during the life cycle of a radiative fog, providing the relative contribution of several particle groups to extinction in clear-sky conditions, in haze and in fog. PreViBOSS is a 3-year project scheduled to start this year. The aim is to improve the short term prediction of changes in atmospheric visibility, at a local scale. It proposes an innovative approach: applying the Generalised Additive Model statistical method to the detailed and extended dataset acquired at SIRTA. This method offers the opportunity to explore non linear relationships between parameters, which are not yet integrated in current numerical models. Emphasis will be put on aerosols and their impact on the fog life

  11. Earthquake prediction; new studies yield promising results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, R.

    1974-01-01

    On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road. 

  12. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  13. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  14. Development of a short-term irradiance prediction system using post-processing tools on WRF-ARW meteorological forecasts in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rincón, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.

    2010-09-01

    The increased contribution of solar energy in power generation sources requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance conditioned by geographical, temporal and meteorological conditions. The knowledge of the variability of these factors is essential to estimate the expected energy production and therefore help stabilizing the electricity grid and increase the reliability of available solar energy. The use of numerical meteorological models in combination with statistical post-processing tools may have the potential to satisfy the requirements for short-term forecasting of solar irradiance for up to several days ahead and its application in solar devices. In this contribution, we present an assessment of a short-term irradiance prediction system based on the WRF-ARW mesoscale meteorological model (Skamarock et al., 2005) and several post-processing tools in order to improve the overall skills of the system in an annual simulation of the year 2004 in Spain. The WRF-ARW model is applied with 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution and 38 vertical layers over the Iberian Peninsula. The hourly model irradiance is evaluated against more than 90 surface stations. The stations are used to assess the temporal and spatial fluctuations and trends of the system evaluating three different post-processes: Model Output Statistics technique (MOS; Glahn and Lowry, 1972), Recursive statistical method (REC; Boi, 2004) and Kalman Filter Predictor (KFP, Bozic, 1994; Roeger et al., 2003). A first evaluation of the system without post-processing tools shows an overestimation of the surface irradiance, due to the lack of atmospheric absorbers attenuation different than clouds not included in the meteorological model. This produces an annual BIAS of 16 W m-2 h-1, annual RMSE of 106 W m-2 h-1 and annual NMAE of 42%. The largest errors are observed in spring and summer, reaching RMSE of 350 W m-2 h-1. Results using Kalman Filter Predictor show a reduction of 8% of RMSE, 83% of BIAS

  15. Possibility of Earthquake-prediction by analyzing VLF signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Suman; Chakrabarti, Sandip Kumar; Sasmal, Sudipta

    2016-07-01

    Prediction of seismic events is one of the most challenging jobs for the scientific community. Conventional ways for prediction of earthquakes are to monitor crustal structure movements, though this method has not yet yield satisfactory results. Furthermore, this method fails to give any short-term prediction. Recently, it is noticed that prior to any seismic event a huge amount of energy is released which may create disturbances in the lower part of D-layer/E-layer of the ionosphere. This ionospheric disturbance may be used as a precursor of earthquakes. Since VLF radio waves propagate inside the wave-guide formed by lower ionosphere and Earth's surface, this signal may be used to identify ionospheric disturbances due to seismic activity. We have analyzed VLF signals to find out the correlations, if any, between the VLF signal anomalies and seismic activities. We have done both the case by case study and also the statistical analysis using a whole year data. In both the methods we found that the night time amplitude of VLF signals fluctuated anomalously three days before the seismic events. Also we found that the terminator time of the VLF signals shifted anomalously towards night time before few days of any major seismic events. We calculate the D-layer preparation time and D-layer disappearance time from the VLF signals. We have observed that this D-layer preparation time and D-layer disappearance time become anomalously high 1-2 days before seismic events. Also we found some strong evidences which indicate that it may possible to predict the location of epicenters of earthquakes in future by analyzing VLF signals for multiple propagation paths.

  16. Short-term energy outlook: Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornett, C.; Paxson, D.; Reznek, A. P.; Chu, C.; Sitzer, S.; Gamson, N.; Childress, J. P.; Paul, S.; Weigel, H.; Sutton, S.

    1981-05-01

    Detailed discussions of forecasting methodology and analytical topics concerning short-term energy markets are presented. Major assumptions necessary to make the energy forecasts are also discussed. Supplementary analyses of topics related to short-term energy forecasting are also given. The discussions relate to the forecasts prepared using the short term integrated forecasting system. This set of computer models uses data from various sources to develop energy supply and demand balances. Econmetric models used to predict the demand for petroleum products, natural gas, coal, and electricity are discussed. Price prediction models are also discussed. The role of oil inventories in world oil markets is reviewed. Various relationship between weather patterns and energy consumption are discussed.

  17. Short-term prediction of the foF2 critical frequency in the high latitude ionosphere for DIAS extending services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsagouri, Ioanna; Belehaki, Anna

    2013-04-01

    Ionospheric forecasting products and services for Europe are provided routinely by the European Digital upper Atmosphere Server, DIAS (http://dias.space.noa.gr). These include alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric storm time disturbances as well as single station and regional ionospheric forecasts up to 24 hours ahead for the middle latitude European region. However, in order to meet the users' requirements, it is planned within the Space Situational Awareness Programme of the European Space Agency the extension of the DIAS forecasting services to cover the whole European region, including Scandinavia. To this effect, the Solar Wind driven autoregression model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF) will be applied. In the operational mode, SWIF combines historical and real-time ionospheric observations with solar wind parameters obtained in real time at L1 point from ACE spacecraft through the cooperation of an autoregression forecasting algorithm, namely TSAR with an empirical ionospheric storm time model, namely STIM that is triggered by solar wind disturbances detected by STIM's alert detection algorithm. The ionospheric storm time response is then empirically formulated taken into account the latitude and the local time of the observation point at the storm onset. SWIF's prediction efficiency was recently fully documented for the middle latitude ionosphere. As a first step towards the operational implementation of the SWIF for high latitude ionospheric forecasts, the work presented here includes the evaluation of the SWIF's performance over high latitude locations and under disturbed geophysical conditions based on historical data. For this purpose, all available high latitude foF2 observations obtained during a significant number of selected storm events occurred in the previous as well as the current solar cycle are analyzed in respect with the foF2 reference level and the model's predictions. The results verify the validity of STIM's storm alert

  18. Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

    PubMed Central

    Assari, Shervin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2%) and 927 women (61.8%)) aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age), socio-economic factors (education and marital status), and health behaviors (smoking and drinking) were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent) or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor), or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men and women

  19. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  20. A Short-term In vivo Screen using Fetal Testosterone Production, a Key Event in the Phthalate Adverse Outcome Pathway, to Predict Disruption of Sexual Differentiation.

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study was designed to develop and validate a short-term in vivo protocol termed the Fetal Phthalate Screen (FPS) to detect phthalate esters (PEs) and other chemicals that disrupt fetal testosterone synthesis and testis gene expression in rats. We propose that the FPS can be ...

  1. The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melby-Lervag, Monica

    2012-01-01

    The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development, has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. Evidence clearly suggests that the relation between reading skills, phoneme awareness, rhyme awareness, and verbal short-term memory is more than a mere association. A strong argument has…

  2. The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melby-Lervag, Monica

    2012-01-01

    The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

  3. Development of Short-term Molecular Thresholds to Predict Long-term Mouse Liver Tumor Outcomes: Phthalate Case StudyTo be

    EPA Science Inventory

    Molecular Thresholds for Early Key Events in Liver Tumorgensis: PhthalateCase StudyTriangleShort-term changes in molecular profiles are a central component of strategies to model health effects of environmental chemicals such as phthalates, for which there is widespread human exp...

  4. Predicting Patient Change from Therapist Competence and Patient-Therapist Complementarity in Short-Term Anxiety-Provoking Psychotherapy: A Pilot Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Svartberg, Martin; Stiles, Tore C.

    1992-01-01

    Examined therapist competence and patient-therapist complementarity as to their interrelation and their unique, collective, and interactive contributions to patient change in 20 sessions of short-term anxiety-provoking psychotherapy. Found that competence in early sessions did not relate to patient change. Patient-therapist complementarity ratings…

  5. Analytical Conditions for Compact Earthquake Prediction Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sengor, T.

    2009-04-01

    This paper concerns itself with The atmosphere and ionosphere include non-uniform electric charge and current distributions during the earthquake activity. These charges and currents move irregularly when an activity is scheduled for an earthquake at the future. The electromagnetic characteristics of the region over the earth change to domains where irregular transportations of non-uniform electric charges are observed; therefore, the electromagnetism in the plasma, which moves irregularly and contains non-uniform charge distributions, is studied. These cases of charge distributions are called irregular and non-uniform plasmas. It is called the seismo-plasma if irregular and non-uniform plasma defines a real earthquake activity, which will come to truth. Some signals involving the above-mentioned coupling effects generate some analytical conditions giving the predictability of seismic processes [1]-[5]. These conditions will be discussed in this paper. 2 References [1] T. Sengor, "The electromagnetic device optimization modeling of seismo-electromagnetic processes," IUGG Perugia 2007. [2] T. Sengor, "The electromagnetic device optimization modeling of seismo-electromagnetic processes for Marmara Sea earthquakes," EGU 2008. [3] T. Sengor, "On the exact interaction mechanism of electromagnetically generated phenomena with significant earthquakes and the observations related the exact predictions before the significant earthquakes at July 1999-May 2000 period," Helsinki Univ. Tech. Electrom. Lab. Rept. 368, May 2001. [4] T. Sengor, "The Observational Findings Before The Great Earthquakes Of December 2004 And The Mechanism Extraction From Associated Electromagnetic Phenomena," Book of XXVIIIth URSI GA 2005, pp. 191, EGH.9 (01443) and Proceedings 2005 CD, New Delhi, India, Oct. 23-29, 2005. [5] T. Sengor, "The interaction mechanism among electromagnetic phenomena and geophysical-seismic-ionospheric phenomena with extraction for exact earthquake prediction genetics," 10

  6. Microearthquake networks and earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, W.H.K.; Steward, S. W.

    1979-01-01

    A microearthquake network is a group of highly sensitive seismographic stations designed primarily to record local earthquakes of magnitudes less than 3. Depending on the application, a microearthquake network will consist of several stations or as many as a few hundred . They are usually classified as either permanent or temporary. In a permanent network, the seismic signal from each is telemetered to a central recording site to cut down on the operating costs and to allow more efficient and up-to-date processing of the data. However, telemetering can restrict the location sites because of the line-of-site requirement for radio transmission or the need for telephone lines. Temporary networks are designed to be extremely portable and completely self-contained so that they can be very quickly deployed. They are most valuable for recording aftershocks of a major earthquake or for studies in remote areas.  

  7. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  8. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

  9. Predictive factors of short-term survival from acute myocardial infarction in early and late patients in Isfahan and Najafabad, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Abdolazimi, Mohammad; Khosravi, Alireza; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Salehiniya, Hamid; Golshahi, Jafar

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the primary cause of mortality in the world and Iran. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic factors of short-term survival from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in early and late patients in the Najafabad and Isfahan County, Iran. METHODS This hospital-based cohort study was conducted using the hospital registry of 1999-2009 in Iran. All patients (n = 14426) with an AMI referred to hospitals of Isfahan and Najafabad were investigated. To determine prognostic factors of short-term (28-days) survival in early and late patients, unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was calculated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression. RESULTS The short-term (28-day) survival rate of early and late patients was 96.64% and 89.42% (P < 0.001), respectively. In 80% of early and 79.3% of late patients, mortality occurred during the first 7 days of disease occurrence. HR of death was higher in women in the two groups; it was 1.97 in early patients was (CI95%: 1.32-2.92) and 1.35 in late patients (CI95%: 1.19-1.53) compared to men. HR of death had a rising trend with the increasing of age in the two groups. CONCLUSION Short-term survival rate was higher in early patients than in late patients. In addition, case fatality rate (CFR) of AMI in women was higher than in men. In both groups, sex, age, an atomic location of myocardial infarction based on the International Classification of Disease, Revision 10 (ICD10), cardiac enzymes, and clinical symptoms were significant predictors of survival in early and late patients following AMI. PMID:27429625

  10. The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.; Langbein, J.

    1994-01-01

    Since 1985, a focused earthquake prediction experiment has been in progress along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California. Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. The probability of another moderate earthquake soon appears high, but studies assigning it a 95% chance of occurring before 1993 now appear to have been oversimplified. The identification of a Parkfield fault "segment" was initially based on geometric features in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, but more recent microearthquake studies have demonstrated that those features do not extend to seismogenic depths. On the other hand, geodetic measurements are consistent with the existence of a "locked" patch on the fault beneath Parkfield that has presently accumulated a slip deficit equal to the slip in the 1966 earthquake. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake in October 1992 brought the Parkfield experiment to its highest level of alert, with a 72-hour public warning that there was a 37% chance of a magnitude 6 event. However, this warning proved to be a false alarm. Most data collected at Parkfield indicate that strain is accumulating at a constant rate on this part of the San Andreas fault, but some interesting departures from this behavior have been recorded. Here we outline the scientific arguments bearing on when the next Parkfield earthquake is likely to occur and summarize geophysical observations to date.

  11. Physically based prediction of earthquake induced landsliding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels; Gorum, Tolga; Uchida, Taro

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes are an important trigger of landslides and can contribute significantly to sedimentary or organic matter fluxes. We present a new physically based expression for the prediction of total area and volume of populations of earthquake-induced landslides. This model implements essential seismic processes, linking key parameters such as ground acceleration, fault size, earthquake source depth and seismic moment. To assess the model we have compiled and normalized a database of landslide inventories for 40 earthquakes. We have found that low landscape steepness systematically leads to overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model is able to predict within a factor of 2 the landslide areas and associated volumes for about two thirds of the cases in our databases. This is a significant improvement on a previously published empirical expression based only on earthquake moment, even though the prediction of total landslide area is more difficult than that of volume because it is affected by additional parameters such as the depth and continuity of soil cover. Some outliers in terms of observed landslide intensity are likely to be associated with exceptional rock mass properties in the epicentral area. Others may be related to seismic source complexities ignored by the model. However, most cases in our catalogue seem to be relatively unaffected by these two effects despite the variety of lithologies and tectonic settings they cover. This makes the model suitable for integration into landscape evolution models, and application to the assessment of secondary hazards and risks associated with earthquakes.

  12. The nonlinear predictability of the electrotelluric field variations data analyzed with support vector machines as an earthquake precursor.

    PubMed

    Ifantis, A; Papadimitriou, S

    2003-10-01

    This work investigates the nonlinear predictability of the Electro Telluric Field (ETF) variations data in order to develop new intelligent tools for the difficult task of earthquake prediction. Support Vector Machines trained on a signal window have been used to predict the next sample. We observe a significant increase at this short-term unpredictability of the ETF signal at about two weeks time period before the major earthquakes that took place in regions near the recording devices. The unpredictability increase can be attributed to a quick time variation of the dynamics that produce the ETF signal due to the earthquake generation process. Thus, this increase can be taken into advantage for signaling for an increased possibility of a large earthquake within the next few days in the neighboring region of the recording station.

  13. Short-term energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-11-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents future scenarios of quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and prices for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes previous estimate errors, compares recent scenarios with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics of the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook: Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The scenario period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1990 through the fourth quarter of 1991. Some data for the third quarter of 1990 are preliminary EIA estimates of actual data (for example, some petroleum estimates are based on statistics from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are derived from internal model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, some electricity demand estimates are based on recent weather data). 11 figs., 13 tabs.

  14. A radon detector for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dacey, James

    2010-04-01

    Recent events in Haiti and Chile remind us of the devastation that can be wrought by an earthquake, especially when it strikes without warning. For centuries, people living in seismically active regions have reported a number of strange occurrences immediately prior to a quake, including unexpected weather phenomena and even unusual behaviour among animals. In more recent times, some scientists have suggested other precursors, such as sporadic bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the fault zone. Unfortunately, none of these suggestions has led to a robust, scientific method for earthquake prediction. Now, however, a group of physicists, led by physics Nobel laureate Georges Charpak, has developed a new detector that could measure one of the more testable earthquake precursors - the suggestion that radon gas is released from fault zones prior to earth slipping, writes James Dacey.

  15. 76 FR 19123 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-06

    ....S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1-day meeting on April 16, 2011. The meeting... the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness...

  16. Signals of ENPEMF Used in Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, G.; Dong, H.; Zeng, Z.; Wu, G.; Zabrodin, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    The signals of Earth's natural pulse electromagnetic field (ENPEMF) is a combination of the abnormal crustal magnetic field pulse affected by the earthquake, the induced field of earth's endogenous magnetic field, the induced magnetic field of the exogenous variation magnetic field, geomagnetic pulsation disturbance and other energy coupling process between sun and earth. As an instantaneous disturbance of the variation field of natural geomagnetism, ENPEMF can be used to predict earthquakes. This theory was introduced by A.A Vorobyov, who expressed a hypothesis that pulses can arise not only in the atmosphere but within the Earth's crust due to processes of tectonic-to-electric energy conversion (Vorobyov, 1970; Vorobyov, 1979). The global field time scale of ENPEMF signals has specific stability. Although the wave curves may not overlap completely at different regions, the smoothed diurnal ENPEMF patterns always exhibit the same trend per month. The feature is a good reference for observing the abnormalities of the Earth's natural magnetic field in a specific region. The frequencies of the ENPEMF signals generally locate in kilo Hz range, where frequencies within 5-25 kilo Hz range can be applied to monitor earthquakes. In Wuhan, the best observation frequency is 14.5 kilo Hz. Two special devices are placed in accordance with the S-N and W-E direction. Dramatic variation from the comparison between the pulses waveform obtained from the instruments and the normal reference envelope diagram should indicate high possibility of earthquake. The proposed detection method of earthquake based on ENPEMF can improve the geodynamic monitoring effect and can enrich earthquake prediction methods. We suggest the prospective further researches are about on the exact sources composition of ENPEMF signals, the distinction between noise and useful signals, and the effect of the Earth's gravity tide and solid tidal wave. This method may also provide a promising application in

  17. Earthquake prediction: Simple methods for complex phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luen, Bradley

    2010-09-01

    Earthquake predictions are often either based on stochastic models, or tested using stochastic models. Tests of predictions often tacitly assume predictions do not depend on past seismicity, which is false. We construct a naive predictor that, following each large earthquake, predicts another large earthquake will occur nearby soon. Because this "automatic alarm" strategy exploits clustering, it succeeds beyond "chance" according to a test that holds the predictions _xed. Some researchers try to remove clustering from earthquake catalogs and model the remaining events. There have been claims that the declustered catalogs are Poisson on the basis of statistical tests we show to be weak. Better tests show that declustered catalogs are not Poisson. In fact, there is evidence that events in declustered catalogs do not have exchangeable times given the locations, a necessary condition for the Poisson. If seismicity followed a stochastic process, an optimal predictor would turn on an alarm when the conditional intensity is high. The Epidemic-Type Aftershock (ETAS) model is a popular point process model that includes clustering. It has many parameters, but is still a simpli_cation of seismicity. Estimating the model is di_cult, and estimated parameters often give a non-stationary model. Even if the model is ETAS, temporal predictions based on the ETAS conditional intensity are not much better than those of magnitude-dependent automatic (MDA) alarms, a much simpler strategy with only one parameter instead of _ve. For a catalog of Southern Californian seismicity, ETAS predictions again o_er only slight improvement over MDA alarms

  18. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  19. Neural network models for earthquake magnitude prediction using multiple seismicity indicators.

    PubMed

    Panakkat, Ashif; Adeli, Hojjat

    2007-02-01

    Neural networks are investigated for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the following month based on the analysis of eight mathematically computed parameters known as seismicity indicators. The indicators are selected based on the Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic earthquake magnitude distribution and also on the conclusions drawn by recent earthquake prediction studies. Since there is no known established mathematical or even empirical relationship between these indicators and the location and magnitude of a succeeding earthquake in a particular time window, the problem is modeled using three different neural networks: a feed-forward Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation (LMBP) neural network, a recurrent neural network, and a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. Prediction accuracies of the models are evaluated using four different statistical measures: the probability of detection, the false alarm ratio, the frequency bias, and the true skill score or R score. The models are trained and tested using data for two seismically different regions: Southern California and the San Francisco bay region. Overall the recurrent neural network model yields the best prediction accuracies compared with LMBP and RBF networks. While at the present earthquake prediction cannot be made with a high degree of certainty this research provides a scientific approach for evaluating the short-term seismic hazard potential of a region.

  20. On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models

    PubMed Central

    Marzocchi, W; Melini, D

    2014-01-01

    Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process. PMID:26074643

  1. On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzocchi, W.; Melini, D.

    2014-12-01

    Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process.

  2. 78 FR 64973 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-30

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake... proposed earthquake predictions, on the completeness and scientific validity of the available data...

  3. 77 FR 53225 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-31

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: Department of the... National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 1\\1/2\\ day meeting on September 17 and 18, 2012, at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC),...

  4. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  5. Predictable 'meta-mechanisms' emerge from feedbacks between transpiration and plant growth and cannot be simply deduced from short-term mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Tardieu, François; Parent, Boris

    2016-08-29

    Growth under water deficit is controlled by short-term mechanisms but, because of numerous feedbacks, the combination of these mechanisms over time often results in outputs that cannot be deduced from the simple inspection of individual mechanisms. It can be analysed with dynamic models in which causal relationships between variables are considered at each time-step, allowing calculation of outputs that are routed back to inputs for the next time-step and that can change the system itself. We first review physiological mechanisms involved in seven feedbacks of transpiration on plant growth, involving changes in tissue hydraulic conductance, stomatal conductance, plant architecture and underlying factors such as hormones or aquaporins. The combination of these mechanisms over time can result in non-straightforward conclusions as shown by examples of simulation outputs: 'over production of abscisic acid (ABA) can cause a lower concentration of ABA in the xylem sap ', 'decreasing root hydraulic conductance when evaporative demand is maximum can improve plant performance' and 'rapid root growth can decrease yield'. Systems of equations simulating feedbacks over numerous time-steps result in logical and reproducible emergent properties that can be viewed as 'meta-mechanisms' at plant level, which have similar roles as mechanisms at cell level.

  6. From Earthquake Prediction Research to Time-Variable Seismic Hazard Assessment Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, Peter

    2011-01-01

    The first part of the paper defines the terms and classifications common in earthquake prediction research and applications. This is followed by short reviews of major earthquake prediction programs initiated since World War II in several countries, for example the former USSR, China, Japan, the United States, and several European countries. It outlines the underlying expectations, concepts, and hypotheses, introduces the technologies and methodologies applied and some of the results obtained, which include both partial successes and failures. Emphasis is laid on discussing the scientific reasons why earthquake prediction research is so difficult and demanding and why the prospects are still so vague, at least as far as short-term and imminent predictions are concerned. However, classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, widely applied during the last few decades, have also clearly revealed their limitations. In their simple form, they are time-independent earthquake rupture forecasts based on the assumption of stable long-term recurrence of earthquakes in the seismotectonic areas under consideration. Therefore, during the last decade, earthquake prediction research and pilot applications have focused mainly on the development and rigorous testing of long and medium-term rupture forecast models in which event probabilities are conditioned by the occurrence of previous earthquakes, and on their integration into neo-deterministic approaches for improved time-variable seismic hazard assessment. The latter uses stress-renewal models that are calibrated for variations in the earthquake cycle as assessed on the basis of historical, paleoseismic, and other data, often complemented by multi-scale seismicity models, the use of pattern-recognition algorithms, and site-dependent strong-motion scenario modeling. International partnerships and a global infrastructure for comparative testing have recently been developed, for example the Collaboratory for the Study of

  7. Low residual proliferation after short-term letrozole therapy is an early predictive marker of response in high proliferative ER-positive breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Bedard, Philippe L; Singhal, Sandeep K; Ignatiadis, Michail; Bradbury, Ian; Haibe-Kains, Benjamin; Desmedt, Christine; Loi, Sherene; Evans, Dean B; Michiels, Stefan; Dixon, J Michael; Miller, William R; Piccart, Martine J; Sotiriou, Christos

    2011-12-01

    The gene expression grade index (GGI) is a 97-gene algorithm that measures proliferation and divides intermediate histological grade tumors into two distinct groups. We investigated the association between early changes in GGI and clinical response to neoadjuvant letrozole and compared this to Ki67 values. The paired gene expression data at the beginning and after 10-14 days of neoadjuvant letrozole treatment were available for 52 post-menopausal patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Baseline values and changes in GGI, Ki67, and RNA expression modules representing oncogenic signaling pathways were compared to sonographic tumor volume changes after 3 months of treatment in the subsets of patients defined by high and low baseline GGI. The clinical response was observed in 80% genomic low-grade (24/30) and 59% genomic high-grade (13/22) tumors (P=0.10). Low residual proliferation after 10-14 days of neoadjuvant letrozole therapy, measured by either GGI or Ki67, was associated with sonographic response in genomic high-grade (GGI, P=0.003; Ki67, P=0.017) but not genomic low-grade (GGI, P=0.25; Ki67, P=1.0) tumors. The analysis of expression modules suggested that sonographic response to letrozole in genomic high-grade tumors was associated with an early reduction in IGF1 signaling (unadjusted P=0.018). The major conclusion of this study is that the early assessment of proliferation after short-term endocrine therapy may be useful to evaluate endocrine responsiveness, particularly in genomic high-grade ER-positive breast cancer.

  8. An evaluation of the seismic- window theory for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McNutt, M.; Heaton, T.H.

    1981-01-01

    Reports studies designed to determine whether earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area respond to a fortnightly fluctuation in tidal amplitude. It does not appear that the tide is capable of triggering earthquakes, and in particular the seismic window theory fails as a relevant method of earthquake prediction. -J.Clayton

  9. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    headquarters until 9 p.m.: families, school classes with and without teachers, civil protection groups, journalists. This initiative, built up in a few weeks, had a very large feedback, also due to the media highlighting the presumed prediction. Although we could not rule out the possibility of a strong earthquake in central Italy (with effects in Rome) we tried to explain the meaning of short term earthquake prediction vs. probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Despite many people remained with the fear (many decided to take a day off and leave the town or stay in public parks), we contributed to reduce this feeling and therefore the social cost of this strange Roman day. Moreover, another lesson learned is that these (fortunately sporadic) circumstances, when people's attention is high, are important opportunities for science communication. We thank all the INGV colleagues who contributed to the May 11 Open Day, in particular the Press Office, the Educational and Outreach laboratory, the Graphics Laboratory and SissaMedialab. P.S. no large earthquake happened

  10. Prediction of Earthquakes by Lunar Cicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, G.

    2007-05-01

    Prediction of Earthquakes by Lunar Cicles Author ; Guillermo Rodriguez Rodriguez Afiliation Geophysic and Astrophysicist. Retired I have exposed this idea to many meetings of EGS, UGS, IUGG 95, from 80, 82.83,and AGU 2002 Washington and 2003 Niza I have thre aproximition in Time 1º Earthquakes hapen The same day of the years every 18 or 19 years (cicle Saros ) Some times in the same place or anhother very far . In anhother moments of the year , teh cicle can be are ; 14 years, 26 years, 32 years or the multiples o 18.61 years expecial 55, 93, 224, 150 ,300 etcetc. For To know the day in the year 2º Over de cicle o one Lunation ( Days over de date of new moon) The greats Earthquakes hapens with diferents intervals of days in the sucesives lunations (aproximately one month) like we can be see in the grafic enclosed. For to know the day of month 3º Over each day I have find that each 28 day repit aproximately the same hour and minute. The same longitude and the same latitud in all earthquakes , also the littles ones . This is very important because we can to proposse only the precaution of wait it in the street or squares Whenever some times the cicles can be longuers or more littles This is my special way of cientific metode As consecuence of the 1º and 2º principe we can look The correlation between years separated by cicles of the 1º tipe For example 1984 and 2002 0r 2003 and consecutive years include 2007...During 30 years I have look de dates. I am in my subconcense the way but I can not make it in scientific formalisme

  11. Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Day, S.M.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes often occur on faults that juxtapose different rocks. The result is rupture behavior that differs from that of an earthquake occurring on a fault in a homogeneous material. Previous 2D numerical simulations have studied simple cases of earthquake rupture propagation where there is a material contrast across a fault and have come to two different conclusions: 1) earthquake rupture propagation direction can be predicted from the material contrast, and 2) earthquake rupture propagation direction cannot be predicted from the material contrast. In this paper we provide observational evidence from 70 years of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, and new 3D numerical simulations. Both the observations and the numerical simulations demonstrate that earthquake rupture propagation direction is unlikely to be predictable on the basis of a material contrast. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Research on earthquake prediction from infrared cloud images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Jing; Chen, Zhong; Yan, Liang; Gong, Jing; Wang, Dong

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, the occurrence of large earthquakes is frequent all over the word. In the face of the inevitable natural disasters, the prediction of the earthquake is particularly important to avoid more loss of life and property. Many achievements in the field of predict earthquake from remote sensing images have been obtained in the last few decades. But the traditional prediction methods presented do have the limitations of can't forecast epicenter location accurately and automatically. In order to solve the problem, a new predicting earthquakes method based on extract the texture and emergence frequency of the earthquake cloud is proposed in this paper. First, strengthen the infrared cloud images. Second, extract the texture feature vector of each pixel. Then, classified those pixels and converted to several small suspected area. Finally, tracking the suspected area and estimate the possible location. The inversion experiment of Ludian earthquake show that this approach can forecast the seismic center feasible and accurately.

  13. Integrative Approaches for Predicting in vivo Effects of Chemicals from their Structural Descriptors and the Results of Short-term Biological Assays

    PubMed Central

    Low, Yen S.; Sedykh, Alexander; Rusyn, Ivan; Tropsha, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Cheminformatics approaches such as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling have been used traditionally for predicting chemical toxicity. In recent years, high throughput biological assays have been increasingly employed to elucidate mechanisms of chemical toxicity and predict toxic effects of chemicals in vivo. The data generated in such assays can be considered as biological descriptors of chemicals that can be combined with molecular descriptors and employed in QSAR modeling to improve the accuracy of toxicity prediction. In this review, we discuss several approaches for integrating chemical and biological data for predicting biological effects of chemicals in vivo and compare their performance across several data sets. We conclude that while no method consistently shows superior performance, the integrative approaches rank consistently among the best yet offer enriched interpretation of models over those built with either chemical or biological data alone. We discuss the outlook for such interdisciplinary methods and offer recommendations to further improve the accuracy and interpretability of computational models that predict chemical toxicity. PMID:24805064

  14. Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

    2015-06-01

    The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with

  15. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  16. Short-term prediction of Betula airborne pollen concentration in Vigo (NW Spain) using logistic additive models and partially linear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotos-Yáñez, Tomas R.; Rodríguez-Rajo, F. J.; Jato, M. V.

    Betula pollen is a common cause of pollinosis in localities in NW Spain and between 13% and 60% of individuals who are immunosensitive to pollen grains respond positively to its allergens. It is important in the case of all such people to be able to predict pollen concentrations in advance. We therefore undertook an aerobiological study in the city of Vigo (Pontevedra, Spain) from 1995 to 2001, using a Hirst active-impact pollen trap (VPPS 2000) situated in the city centre. Vigo presents a temperate maritime climate with a mean annual temperature of 14.9 °C and 1,412 mm annual total precipitation. This paper analyses two ways of quantifying the prediction of pollen concentration: first by means of a generalized additive regression model with the object of predicting whether the series of interest exceeds a certain threshold; second using a partially linear model to obtain specific prediction values for pollen grains. Both models use a self-explicative part and another formed by exogenous meteorological factors. The models were tested with data from 2001 (year in which the total precipitation registered was almost twice the climatological average overall during the flowering period), which were not used in formulating the models. A highly satisfactory classification and good forecasting results were achieved with the first and second approaches respectively. The estimated line taking into account temperature and a calm S-SW wind, corresponds to the real line recorded during 2001, which gives us an idea of the proposed model's validity.

  17. Quantifying characteristic growth dynamics in a semiarid grassland ecosystem by predicting short-term NDVI phenology from daily rainfall: a simple 4 parameter coupled-reservoir model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Predicting impacts of the magnitude and seasonal timing of rainfall pulses in water-limited grassland ecosystems concerns ecologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, and a variety of stakeholders. This report describes a simple, effective procedure to emulate the seasonal response of grassland bio...

  18. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

    PubMed Central

    Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

  19. Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: Use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Laura E; Dickens, Geoffrey L

    2016-06-30

    The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its'component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

  20. Magnetic resonance imaging-based measures predictive of short-term surgical outcome in patients with Chiari malformation Type I: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Alperin, Noam; Loftus, James Ryan; Bagci, Ahmet M; Lee, Sang H; Oliu, Carlos J; Shah, Ashish H; Green, Barth A

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study identifies quantitative imaging-based measures in patients with Chiari malformation Type I (CM-I) that are associated with positive outcomes after suboccipital decompression with duraplasty. METHODS Fifteen patients in whom CM-I was newly diagnosed underwent MRI preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. More than 20 previously described morphological and physiological parameters were derived to assess quantitatively the impact of surgery. Postsurgical clinical outcomes were assessed in 2 ways, based on resolution of the patient's chief complaint and using a modified Chicago Chiari Outcome Scale (CCOS). Statistical analyses were performed to identify measures that were different between the unfavorable- and favorable-outcome cohorts. Multivariate analysis was used to identify the strongest predictors of outcome. RESULTS The strongest physiological parameter predictive of outcome was the preoperative maximal cord displacement in the upper cervical region during the cardiac cycle, which was significantly larger in the favorable-outcome subcohorts for both outcome types (p < 0.05). Several hydrodynamic measures revealed significantly larger preoperative-to-postoperative changes in the favorable-outcome subcohort. Predictor sets for the chief-complaint classification included the cord displacement, percent venous drainage through the jugular veins, and normalized cerebral blood flow with 93.3% accuracy. Maximal cord displacement combined with intracranial volume change predicted outcome based on the modified CCOS classification with similar accuracy. CONCLUSIONS Tested physiological measures were stronger predictors of outcome than the morphological measures in patients with CM-I. Maximal cord displacement and intracranial volume change during the cardiac cycle together with a measure that reflects the cerebral venous drainage pathway emerged as likely predictors of decompression outcome in patients with CM-I.

  1. Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Shimazaki, K.; Nakata, T.

    1980-04-01

    We present historical and geomorphological evidence of a regularity in earthquake recurrence at three different sites of plate convergence around the Japan arcs. The regularity shows that the larger an earthquake is, the longer is the following quiet period. In other words, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes is approximately proportional to the amount of coseismic displacement of the preceding earthquake and not of the following earthquake. The regularity enables us, in principle, to predict the approximate occurrence time of earthquakes. The data set includes 1) a historical document describing repeated measurements of water depth at Murotsu near the focal region of Nankaido earthquakes, 2) precise levelling and /sup 14/C dating of Holocene uplifted terraces in the southern boso peninsula facing the Sagami trough, and 3) similar geomorphological data on exposed Holocene coral reefs in Kikai Island along the Ryukyu arc.

  2. A short-term ionospheric forecasting empirical regional model (IFERM) to predict the critical frequency of the F2 layer during moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions over the European area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietrella, M.

    2012-02-01

    A short-term ionospheric forecasting empirical regional model (IFERM) has been developed to predict the state of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) under different geomagnetic conditions. IFERM is based on 13 short term ionospheric forecasting empirical local models (IFELM) developed to predict foF2 at 13 ionospheric observatories scattered around the European area. The forecasting procedures were developed by taking into account, hourly measurements of foF2, hourly quiet-time reference values of foF2 (foF2QT), and the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap, (ap(τ)), for each observatory. Under the assumption that the ionospheric disturbance index ln(foF2/foF2QT) is correlated to the integrated geomagnetic disturbance index ap(τ), a set of statistically significant regression coefficients were established for each observatory, over 12 months, over 24 h, and under 3 different ranges of geomagnetic activity. This data was then used as input to compute short-term ionospheric forecasting of foF2 at the 13 local stations under consideration. The empirical storm-time ionospheric correction model (STORM) was used to predict foF2 in two different ways: scaling both the hourly median prediction provided by IRI (STORM_foF2MED,IRI model), and the foF2QT values (STORM_foF2QT model) from each local station. The comparison between the performance of STORM_foF2MED,IRI, STORM_foF2QT, IFELM, and the foF2QT values, was made on the basis of root mean square deviation (r.m.s.) for a large number of periods characterized by moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic activity. The results showed that the 13 IFELM perform much better than STORM_foF2,sub>MED,IRI and STORM_foF2QT especially in the eastern part of the European area during the summer months (May, June, July, and August) and equinoctial months (March, April, September, and October) under disturbed and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, respectively

  3. Admission white blood cell count predicts short-term clinical outcomes in patients with uncomplicated Stanford type B acute aortic dissection

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Zhao-Ran; Huang, Bi; Lu, Hai-Song; Zhao, Zhen-Hua; Hui, Ru-Tai; Yang, Yan-Min; Fan, Xiao-Han

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Inflammation has been shown to be related with acute aortic dissection (AAD). The present study aimed to evaluate the association of white blood cell counts (WBCc) on admission with both in-hospital and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with uncomplicated Stanford type B AAD. Methods From 2008 to 2010, a total of 377 consecutive patients with uncomplicated type B AAD were enrolled and then followed up. Clinical data and WBCc on admission were collected. The primary end points were in-hospital death and long-term all-cause death. Results The in-hospital death rate was 4.2%, and the long-term all-cause mortality rate was 6.9% during a median follow-up of 18.9 months. WBCc on admission was identified as a risk factor for in-hospital death by univariate Cox regression analysis as both a continuous variable and a categorical variable using a cut off of 11.0 × 109 cell/L (all P < 0.05). After adjusting for age, sex and other risk factors, elevated admission WBCc was still a significant predictor for in-hospital death as both a continuous variable [hazard ratio (HR): 1.052, 95% CI: 1.024–1.336, P = 0.002] and a categorical variable using a cut off of 11.0 × 109 cell/L (HR: 2.056, 95% CI: 1.673–5.253, P = 0.034). No relationship was observed between WBCc on admission and long-term all-cause death. Conclusions Our results indicate that elevated WBCc upon admission might be used as a predictor for increased risk of in-hospital death in uncomplicated type B AAD. There might be no predictive value of WBCc for the long-term survival of type B AAD. PMID:28270842

  4. Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klee, H.

    The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

  5. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    parameters and seismic events. Further development of the H-104 method is the plotting of H-104 trajectories in two-dimensional time coordinates. The method provides the dates of future earthquakes for several (3-4) sequential time intervals multiple of 104 days. The H-104 method could be used together with the empirical scheme for short-term earthquake prediction reducing the date uncertainty. Using the H-104 method, it is developed the following long-term forecast of seismic activity. 1. The total number of M6+ earthquakes expected in the time frames: - 10.01-07.02: 14; - 08.02-08.03: 17; - 09.03-06.04: 9. 3. The potential days of M6+ earthquakes expected in the period of 10.01.2016-06.04.2016 are the following: - in January: 17, 18, 23, 24, 26, 28, 31; - in February: 01, 02, 05, 12, 15, 18, 20, 23; - in March: 02, 04, 05, 07 (M7+ is possible), 09, 10, 17 (M7+ is possible), 19, 20 (M7+ is possible), 23 (M7+ is possible), 30; - in April: 02, 06. The work was financially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (contract No. 14.577.21.0109, project UID RFMEFI57714X0109)

  6. 76 FR 69761 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-09

    ....S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) AGENCY: U.S. Geological Survey. ACTION: Notice of Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to Public Law 96-472, the National Earthquake... Government. The Council shall advise the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey on proposed...

  7. The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilb, Debi; Gomberg, J.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M?? 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the 'preslip' and 'cascade' models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.

  8. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

    2009-12-01

    Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

  9. Soviet prediction of a major earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    On November 1, 1978, a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred north of the Pamir Mountains near the Tadjiskistan-Kirghizia border, 150 kilometers east of Garm in Soviet Central Asia. Although the earthquake was felt in Tashkent, Dushanbe, and the Fergana Valley, the epicentral area was uninhabited at that time of year, and no damage was reported. 

  10. Introduction to the special issue on the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Arrowsmith, J.R.

    2006-01-01

    The 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake, a long-anticipated event on the San Andreas fault, is the world's best recorded earthquake to date, with state-of-the-art data obtained from geologic, geodetic, seismic, magnetic, and electrical field networks. This has allowed the preearthquake and postearthquake states of the San Andreas fault in this region to be analyzed in detail. Analyses of these data provide views into the San Andreas fault that show a complex geologic history, fault geometry, rheology, and response of the nearby region to the earthquake-induced ground movement. Although aspects of San Andreas fault zone behavior in the Parkfield region can be modeled simply over geological time frames, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake indicate that predicting the fine details of future earthquakes is still a challenge. Instead of a deterministic approach, forecasting future damaging behavior, such as that caused by strong ground motions, will likely continue to require probabilistic methods. However, the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment and the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have provided ample data to understand most of what did occur in 2004, culminating in significant scientific advances.

  11. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    SciTech Connect

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-23

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  12. Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, L.M.

    1996-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake.

  13. Earthquake prediction: the interaction of public policy and science.

    PubMed Central

    Jones, L M

    1996-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake. PMID:11607656

  14. Earthquake prediction: the interaction of public policy and science.

    PubMed

    Jones, L M

    1996-04-30

    Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake.

  15. Multiple asperity model for earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wyss, M.; Johnston, A.C.; Klein, F.W.

    1981-01-01

    Large earthquakes often occur as multiple ruptures reflecting strong variations of stress level along faults. Dense instrument networks with which the volcano Kilauea is monitored provided detailed data on changes of seismic velocity, strain accumulation and earthquake occurrence rate before the 1975 Hawaii 7.2-mag earthquake. During the ???4 yr of preparation time the mainshock source volume had separated into crustal volumes of high stress levels embedded in a larger low-stress volume, showing respectively high- and low-stress precursory anomalies. ?? 1981 Nature Publishing Group.

  16. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-04-30

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  17. Prospects for earthquake prediction and control

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Lee, W.H.K.; Pakiser, L.C.; Raleigh, C.B.; Wood, M.D.

    1972-01-01

    The San Andreas fault is viewed, according to the concepts of seafloor spreading and plate tectonics, as a transform fault that separates the Pacific and North American plates and along which relative movements of 2 to 6 cm/year have been taking place. The resulting strain can be released by creep, by earthquakes of moderate size, or (as near San Francisco and Los Angeles) by great earthquakes. Microearthquakes, as mapped by a dense seismograph network in central California, generally coincide with zones of the San Andreas fault system that are creeping. Microearthquakes are few and scattered in zones where elastic energy is being stored. Changes in the rate of strain, as recorded by tiltmeter arrays, have been observed before several earthquakes of about magnitude 4. Changes in fluid pressure may control timing of seismic activity and make it possible to control natural earthquakes by controlling variations in fluid pressure in fault zones. An experiment in earthquake control is underway at the Rangely oil field in Colorado, where the rates of fluid injection and withdrawal in experimental wells are being controlled. ?? 1972.

  18. In-situ fluid-pressure measurements for earthquake prediction: An example from a deep well at Hi Vista, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Healy, J.H.; Urban, T.C.

    1985-01-01

    Short-term earthquake prediction requires sensitive instruments for measuring the small anomalous changes in stress and strain that precede earthquakes. Instruments installed at or near the surface have proven too noisy for measuring anomalies of the size expected to occur, and it is now recognized that even to have the possibility of a reliable earthquake-prediction system will require instruments installed in drill holes at depths sufficient to reduce the background noise to a level below that of the expected premonitory signals. We are conducting experiments to determine the maximum signal-to-noise improvement that can be obtained in drill holes. In a 592 m well in the Mojave Desert near Hi Vista, California, we measured water-level changes with amplitudes greater than 10 cm, induced by earth tides. By removing the effects of barometric pressure and the stress related to earth tides, we have achieved a sensitivity to volumetric strain rates of 10-9 to 10-10 per day. Further improvement may be possible, and it appears that a successful earthquake-prediction capability may be achieved with an array of instruments installed in drill holes at depths of about 1 km, assuming that the premonitory strain signals are, in fact, present. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.

  19. Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-Term

    MedlinePlus

    ... myhealthfinder Immunization Schedules Nutrient Shortfall Questionnaire Abdominal Pain (Stomach Pain), Short-termJust about everyone has had a " ... time or another. But sudden severe abdominal pain (stomach pain), also called acute pain, shouldn't be ...

  20. Relation between Intelligence and Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Ronald L.; Sandberg, Tor

    1977-01-01

    Intelligence and short-term memory correlations in children were measured using probed serial recall of supraspan digit lists. Results showed the predictive power of intelligence to range from a maximum in the case of recall for recency items to practically zero in the case of primacy items. (Author/MV)

  1. Interference-Based Forgetting in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewandowsky, Stephan; Geiger, Sonja M.; Oberauer, Klaus

    2008-01-01

    This article presents four experiments that tested predictions of SOB (Serial Order in a Box), an interference-based theory of short-term memory. Central to SOB is the concept of novelty-sensitive encoding, which holds that items are encoded to the extent that they differ from already-encoded information. On the additional assumption that…

  2. Usefulness of an Upright T-Wave in Lead aVR for Predicting the Short-Term Prognosis of Incident Hemodialysis Patients: A Potential Tool for Screening High-Risk Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Matsukane, Ai; Hayashi, Toshihide; Tanaka, Yuri; Iwasaki, Masaki; Kubo, Shun; Asakawa, Takasuke; Takahashi, Yasunori; Imamura, Yoshihiko; Hirahata, Koichi; Joki, Nobuhiko; Hase, Hiroki

    2015-01-01

    Background/Aims An upright T-wave in lead aVR (aVRT) has recently been reported to be associated with cardiovascular death and mortality among the general population and patients with prior cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, evidence for the predictive ability of aVRT in patients with chronic kidney disease is lacking. Therefore, a hospital-based, prospective, cohort study was conducted to evaluate the predictive ability of an upright aVRT for the short-term prognosis in incident hemodialysis patients. Methods Among 208 patients who started maintenance hemodialysis, 79 with preexisting CVD (CVD cohort) and 129 with no history of CVD (non-CVD cohort), were studied. An upright and non-upright aVRT were defined as a wave with a positive deflection in amplitude of ≥0 mV and a negative deflection in amplitude of <0 mV, respectively. The endpoint was all-cause death. Results Overall, the prevalence of an upright aVRT was 22.6% at baseline. During the mean follow-up period of 2.1 ± 1.0 years, 33 deaths occurred. Cumulative survival rates at 3 years after starting dialysis in patients with an upright and non-upright aVRT were 50.0 and 80.7%, respectively, in the CVD cohort and 92.0 and 91.3%, respectively, in the non-CVD cohort. In the CVD cohort, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that an upright aVRT was an independent predictor of death after adjusting for confounding variables. Conclusion Among Japanese hemodialysis patients at high risk for CVD, an upright aVRT seems to be useful for predicting death. PMID:26648943

  3. Tracking Earthquake Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.

    2011-12-01

    In assessing their risk to society, earthquakes are best characterized as cascades that can propagate from the natural environment into the socio-economic (built) environment. Strong earthquakes rarely occur as isolated events; they usually cluster in foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, seismic swarms, and extended sequences of large earthquakes that propagate along major fault systems. These cascades are regulated by stress-mediated interactions among faults driven by tectonic loading. Within these cascades, each large event can itself cause a chain reaction in which the primary effects of faulting and ground shaking induce secondary effects, including tsunami, landslides, liquefaction, and set off destructive processes within the built environment, such as fires and radiation leakage from nuclear plants. Recent earthquakes have demonstrated how the socio-economic effects of large earthquakes can reverberate for many years. To reduce earthquake risk and improve the resiliency of communities to earthquake damage, society depends on five geotechnologies for tracking earthquake cascades: long-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), short-term (operational) earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, tsunami warning, and the rapid production of post-event information for response and recovery (see figure). In this presentation, I describe how recent advances in earthquake system science are leading to improvements in this geotechnology pipeline. In particular, I will highlight the role of earthquake simulations in predicting strong ground motions and their secondary effects before and during earthquake cascades

  4. Research in earthquake prediction - the Parkfield prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, Henry

    1986-01-01

    The 15-mile-long Parkfield, California, section of the Sam Andreas fault is the best understood earthquake source region in the world. Moderate-sized earthquakes of local magnitude 5 3/4 occurred at Parkfield in 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966.

  5. Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zechar, J. Douglas; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-09-01

    In 2003, the Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm attracted the attention of seismologists and international news agencies when researchers claimed two successful predictions of large earthquakes. These researchers had begun applying RTP to seismicity in Japan, California, the eastern Mediterranean and Italy; they have since applied it to seismicity in the northern Pacific, Oregon and Nevada. RTP is a pattern recognition algorithm that uses earthquake catalogue data to declare alarms, and these alarms indicate that RTP expects a moderate to large earthquake in the following months. The spatial extent of alarms is highly variable and each alarm typically lasts 9 months, although the algorithm may extend alarms in time and space. We examined the record of alarms and outcomes since the prospective application of RTP began, and in this paper we report on the performance of RTP to date. To analyse these predictions, we used a recently developed approach based on a gambling score, and we used a simple reference model to estimate the prior probability of target earthquakes for each alarm. Formally, we believe that RTP investigators did not rigorously specify the first two `successful' predictions in advance of the relevant earthquakes; because this issue is contentious, we consider analyses with and without these alarms. When we included contentious alarms, RTP predictions demonstrate statistically significant skill. Under a stricter interpretation, the predictions are marginally unsuccessful.

  6. Prediction of Future Great Earthquake Locations from Cumulative Stresses Released by Prior Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Hong, T. K.

    2014-12-01

    There are 17 great earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to 8.5 in the world since 1900. The great events cause significant damages to the humanity. The prediction of potential maximum magnitudes of earthquakes is important for seismic hazard mitigation. In this study, we calculate the Coulomb stress changes around the active plate margins for 507 events with magnitudes greater than 7.0 during 1976-2013 to estimate the cumulative stress releases. We investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ambient stress field from the cumulative Coulomb stress changes as a function of plate motion speed, plate age and dipping angle. It is observed that the largest stress drop occur in relatively high plate velocity in the convergent margins between Nazca and South American plates, between Pacific and North American plates, between Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates, and between Pacific and Australian plates. It is intriguing to note that the great earthquakes such as Tohoku-Oki earthquake and Maule earthquake occur in the highest plate velocity. On the other hand, the largest stress drop occur in the margins with relatively slow plate speeds such as the boundaries between Cocos and North American plates and between Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates. Earthquakes occur dominantly in the regions with positive Coulomb stress changes, suggesting that post-earthquakes are controlled by the stresses released from prior earthquakes. We find strong positive correlations between Coulomb stress changes and plate speeds. The observation suggests that large stress drop was controlled by high plate speed, suggesting possible prediction of potential maximum magnitudes of events.

  7. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    PubMed

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  8. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.

    1996-01-01

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  9. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  10. Theoretical models of synaptic short term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Hennig, Matthias H.

    2013-01-01

    Short term plasticity is a highly abundant form of rapid, activity-dependent modulation of synaptic efficacy. A shared set of mechanisms can cause both depression and enhancement of the postsynaptic response at different synapses, with important consequences for information processing. Mathematical models have been extensively used to study the mechanisms and roles of short term plasticity. This review provides an overview of existing models and their biological basis, and of their main properties. Special attention will be given to slow processes such as calcium channel inactivation and the effect of activation of presynaptic autoreceptors. PMID:23626536

  11. Sun-earth environment study to understand earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, S.

    2007-05-01

    Earthquake prediction is possible by looking into the location of active sunspots before it harbours energy towards earth. Earth is a restless planet the restlessness turns deadly occasionally. Of all natural hazards, earthquakes are the most feared. For centuries scientists working in seismically active regions have noted premonitory signals. Changes in thermosphere, Ionosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere are noted before the changes in geosphere. The historical records talk of changes of the water level in wells, of strange weather, of ground-hugging fog, of unusual behaviour of animals (due to change in magnetic field of the earth) that seem to feel the approach of a major earthquake. With the advent of modern science and technology the understanding of these pre-earthquake signals has become stronger enough to develop a methodology of earthquake prediction. A correlation of earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) from the active sunspots has been possible to develop as a precursor of the earthquake. Occasional local magnetic field and planetary indices (Kp values) changes in the lower atmosphere that is accompanied by the formation of haze and a reduction of moisture in the air. Large patches, often tens to hundreds of thousands of square kilometres in size, seen in night-time infrared satellite images where the land surface temperature seems to fluctuate rapidly. Perturbations in the ionosphere at 90 - 120 km altitude have been observed before the occurrence of earthquakes. These changes affect the transmission of radio waves and a radio black out has been observed due to CME. Another heliophysical parameter Electron flux (Eflux) has been monitored before the occurrence of the earthquakes. More than hundreds of case studies show that before the occurrence of the earthquakes the atmospheric temperature increases and suddenly drops before the occurrence of the earthquakes. These changes are being monitored by using Sun Observatory Heliospheric observatory

  12. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed Central

    Tullis, T E

    1996-01-01

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks. Images Fig. 4 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 7 PMID:11607668

  13. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Tullis, T E

    1996-04-30

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

  14. Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Kanamori, H

    1996-04-30

    For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes just before large earthquakes suggest that consistent detection of such precursory strain changes cannot be expected. Other precursory phenomena such as foreshocks and nonseismological anomalies do not occur consistently either. Thus, reliable short-term prediction would be very difficult. Although short-term predictions with large uncertainties could be useful for some areas if their social and economic environments can tolerate false alarms, such predictions would be impractical for most modern industrialized cities. A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismology, computers, and communication. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.

  15. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Methods Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. Results As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Conclusions Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation. PMID:24645871

  16. Radon measurements for earthquake prediction in northern India

    SciTech Connect

    Singh, B.; Virk, H.S. )

    1992-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is based on the observation of precursory phenomena, and radon has emerged as a useful precursor in recent years. In India, where 55% of the land area is in active seismic zones, considerable destruction was caused by the earthquakes of Kutch (1819), Shillong (1897), Kangra (1905), Bihar-Nepal (1934), Assam (1956), Koyna (1967), Bihar-Nepal (1988), and Uttarkashi (1991). Radon ([sup 222]Rn) is produced by the decay of radium ([sup 226]Ra) in the uranium decay series and is present in trace amounts almost everywhere on the earth, being distributed in soil, groundwater, and lower levels of atmosphere. The purpose of this study is to find the value in radon monitoring for earthquake prediction.

  17. Metropolitan French: Familiarization & Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iszkowski, Marie-Charlotte

    The U.S. Department of State's Foreign Service Institute French Familiarization and Short-Term (FAST) course for personnel working and living in France consists of 10 weeks of French language instruction combined with practical and cultural information. An introductory section outlines FAST course objectives and sample teaching techniques in…

  18. Spanish: Familiarization and Short-Term Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arbelaez, Vicente; And Others

    The State Department's Foreign Service Institute short-term, intensive course in Spanish language and culture for government employees going to work in Spanish-speaking countries contains an introductory section and 38 lessons and 10 related audio cassettes intended as the basis for a ten-week program with an instructor. The lessons cover these…

  19. Short-Term Play Therapy for Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaduson, Heidi Gerard, Ed.; Schaefer, Charles E., Ed.

    Play therapy offers a powerful means of helping children resolve a wide range of psychological difficulties, and many play approaches are ideally suited to short-term work. This book brings together leading play therapists to share their expertise on facilitating children's healing in a shorter time frame. The book provides knowledge and skills…

  20. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  1. An Earthquake Prediction System Using The Time Series Analyses of Earthquake Property And Crust Motion

    SciTech Connect

    Takeda, Fumihide; Takeo, Makoto

    2004-12-09

    We have developed a short-term deterministic earthquake (EQ) forecasting system similar to those used for Typhoons and Hurricanes, which has been under a test operation at website http://www.tec21.jp/ since June of 2003. We use the focus and crust displacement data recently opened to the public by Japanese seismograph and global positioning system (GPS) networks, respectively. Our system divides the forecasting area into the five regional areas of Japan, each of which is about 5 deg. by 5 deg. We have found that it can forecast the focus, date of occurrence and magnitude (M) of an impending EQ (whose M is larger than about 6), all within narrow limits. We have two examples to describe the system. One is the 2003/09/26 EQ of M 8 in the Hokkaido area, which is of hindsight. Another is a successful rollout of the most recent forecast on the 2004/05/30 EQ of M 6.7 off coast of the southern Kanto (Tokyo) area.

  2. Earthquake Prediction in Large-scale Faulting Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junger, J.; Kilgore, B.; Beeler, N.; Dieterich, J.

    2004-12-01

    We study repeated earthquake slip of a 2 m long laboratory granite fault surface with approximately homogenous frictional properties. In this apparatus earthquakes follow a period of controlled, constant rate shear stress increase, analogous to tectonic loading. Slip initiates and accumulates within a limited area of the fault surface while the surrounding fault remains locked. Dynamic rupture propagation and slip of the entire fault surface is induced when slip in the nucleating zone becomes sufficiently large. We report on the event to event reproducibility of loading time (recurrence interval), failure stress, stress drop, and precursory activity. We tentatively interpret these variations as indications of the intrinsic variability of small earthquake occurrence and source physics in this controlled setting. We use the results to produce measures of earthquake predictability based on the probability density of repeating occurrence and the reproducibility of near-field precursory strain. At 4 MPa normal stress and a loading rate of 0.0001 MPa/s, the loading time is ˜25 min, with a coefficient of variation of around 10%. Static stress drop has a similar variability which results almost entirely from variability of the final (rather than initial) stress. Thus, the initial stress has low variability and event times are slip-predictable. The variability of loading time to failure is comparable to the lowest variability of recurrence time of small repeating earthquakes at Parkfield (Nadeau et al., 1998) and our result may be a good estimate of the intrinsic variability of recurrence. Distributions of loading time can be adequately represented by a log-normal or Weibel distribution but long term prediction of the next event time based on probabilistic representation of previous occurrence is not dramatically better than for field-observed small- or large-magnitude earthquake datasets. The gradually accelerating precursory aseismic slip observed in the region of

  3. Diagnostic accuracy of 18 F-FDG and 11 C-PIB-PET for prediction of short-term conversion to Alzheimer's disease in subjects with mild cognitive impairment.

    PubMed

    Zhang, S; Han, D; Tan, X; Feng, J; Guo, Y; Ding, Y

    2012-02-01

    In recent years, the role of PET imaging in the prediction of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) conversion has been the subject of many longitudinal studies. The purpose of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of (18) F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and (11) C-Pittsburgh Compound B-positron emission tomography (PIB-PET) for prediction of short-term conversion to AD in patients with MCI. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were systematically searched for relevant studies. Methodological quality of the included studies was assessed. Sensitivities and specificities of PET in individual studies were calculated and meta-analysis was undertaken with a random-effects model. A summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was constructed with the Moses-Shapiro-Littenberg method. Heterogeneity was tested, and the presence of publication bias was assessed. Potential sources for heterogeneity were explored by assessing whether or not certain covariates significantly influenced the relative diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), DOR and the SROC curve of each PET imaging were determined. A total of 13 research studies (seven FDG-PET and six PIB-PET) met inclusion criteria and had sufficient data for statistical analysis. FDG-PET pooled estimates had 78.7% sensitivity (95% CI, 68.7-86.6%),74.0% specificity (95% CI, 67.0-80.3%), 18.1 LR+(95% CI, 7.3-45.0) and 0.32 LR-(95% CI, 0.16-0.61); and PIB-PET pooled estimates had 93.5% sensitivity (95%CI, 71.3-99.9%), 56.2% specificity (95% CI, 47.2-64.8%), 2.01 LR+ (95% CI, 1.57-2.58) and 0.17 LR-(95% CI, 0.08-0.36). Overall DOR was 17.3 (95% CI, 5.08-59.2) for FDG-PET and 12.8 (95% CI, 5.35-30.54) for PIB-PET. Area under the SROC curve was 0.88 ± 0.05 for FDG-PET and 0.85 ± 0.04 for PIB-PET. The data from FDG-PET research studies

  4. Three Millennia of Seemingly Time-Predictable Earthquakes, Tell Ateret

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agnon, Amotz; Marco, Shmuel; Ellenblum, Ronnie

    2014-05-01

    Among various idealized recurrence models of large earthquakes, the "time-predictable" model has a straightforward mechanical interpretation, consistent with simple friction laws. On a time-predictable fault, the time interval between an earthquake and its predecessor is proportional to the slip during the predecessor. The alternative "slip-predictable" model states that the slip during earthquake rupture is proportional to the preceding time interval. Verifying these models requires extended records of high precision data for both timing and amount of slip. The precision of paleoearthquake data can rarely confirm or rule out predictability, and recent papers argue for either time- or slip-predictable behavior. The Ateret site, on the trace of the Dead Sea fault at the Jordan Gorge segment, offers unique precision for determining space-time patterns. Five consecutive slip events, each associated with deformed and offset sets of walls, are correlated with historical earthquakes. Two correlations are based on detailed archaeological, historical, and numismatic evidence. The other three are tentative. The offsets of three of the events are determined with high precision; the other two are not as certain. Accepting all five correlations, the fault exhibits a striking time-predictable behavior, with a long term slip rate of 3 mm/yr. However, the 30 October 1759 ~0.5 m rupture predicts a subsequent rupture along the Jordan Gorge toward the end of the last century. We speculate that earthquakres on secondary faults (the 25 November 1759 on the Rachaya branch and the 1 January 1837 on the Roum branch, both M≥7) have disrupted the 3 kyr time-predictable pattern.

  5. Association between Early Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Symptoms and Current Verbal and Visuo-Spatial Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling

    2013-01-01

    Deficits in short-term memory are common in adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but their current ADHD symptoms cannot well predict their short-term performance. Taking a developmental perspective, we wanted to clarify the association between ADHD symptoms at early childhood and short-term memory in late childhood and…

  6. 75 FR 63854 - National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-18

    ... Geological Survey National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) Advisory Committee AGENCY: U.S... Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) will hold a 2-day meeting on November 3 and 4, 2010. The... the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on proposed earthquake predictions, on...

  7. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Mai, P. Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (`model') and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  8. Artificial neural network model for earthquake prediction with radon monitoring.

    PubMed

    Külahci, Fatih; Inceöz, Murat; Doğru, Mahmut; Aksoy, Ercan; Baykara, Oktay

    2009-01-01

    Apart from the linear monitoring studies concerning the relationship between radon and earthquake, an artificial neural networks (ANNs) model approach is presented starting out from non-linear changes of the eight different parameters during the earthquake occurrence. A three-layer Levenberg-Marquardt feedforward learning algorithm is used to model the earthquake prediction process in the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS). The proposed ANN system employs individual training strategy with fixed-weight and supervised models leading to estimations. The average relative error between the magnitudes of the earthquakes acquired by ANN and measured data is about 2.3%. The relative error between the test and earthquake data varies between 0% and 12%. In addition, the factor analysis was applied on all data and the model output values to see the statistical variation. The total variance of 80.18% was explained with four factors by this analysis. Consequently, it can be concluded that ANN approach is a potential alternative to other models with complex mathematical operations.

  9. Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Holme, Petter

    2012-07-17

    Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 341 d after the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010. Nineteen days after the earthquake, population movements had caused the population of the capital Port-au-Prince to decrease by an estimated 23%. Both the travel distances and size of people's movement trajectories grew after the earthquake. These findings, in combination with the disorder that was present after the disaster, suggest that people's movements would have become less predictable. Instead, the predictability of people's trajectories remained high and even increased slightly during the three-month period after the earthquake. Moreover, the destinations of people who left the capital during the first three weeks after the earthquake was highly correlated with their mobility patterns during normal times, and specifically with the locations in which people had significant social bonds. For the people who left Port-au-Prince, the duration of their stay outside the city, as well as the time for their return, all followed a skewed, fat-tailed distribution. The findings suggest that population movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought.

  10. Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Holme, Petter

    2012-01-01

    Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 341 d after the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010. Nineteen days after the earthquake, population movements had caused the population of the capital Port-au-Prince to decrease by an estimated 23%. Both the travel distances and size of people’s movement trajectories grew after the earthquake. These findings, in combination with the disorder that was present after the disaster, suggest that people’s movements would have become less predictable. Instead, the predictability of people’s trajectories remained high and even increased slightly during the three-month period after the earthquake. Moreover, the destinations of people who left the capital during the first three weeks after the earthquake was highly correlated with their mobility patterns during normal times, and specifically with the locations in which people had significant social bonds. For the people who left Port-au-Prince, the duration of their stay outside the city, as well as the time for their return, all followed a skewed, fat-tailed distribution. The findings suggest that population movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought. PMID:22711804

  11. The economics of short-term leasing.

    PubMed

    Flath, D

    1980-04-01

    Short-term leasing is an everyday occurrence. Tax savings cannot account for the ubiquity of leasing by temporary users. Monopoly explanations are inconsistent with concurrent leasing and selling markets for perfect substitutes. Leasing economizes upon the costs of detecting, assuring, and maintaining quality, costs of search, and costs of risk-bearing. This view is based on standard economic reasoning and has numerous specific implications.

  12. How Emotional Pictures Influence Visuospatial Binding in Short-Term Memory in Ageing and Alzheimer's Disease?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Celine; Leroy, Nicolas; Favre, Emilie; Laurent, Bernard; Thomas-Anterion, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    The present study examines the prediction that emotion can facilitate short-term memory. Nevertheless, emotion also recruits attention to process information, thereby disrupting short-term memory when tasks involve high attentional resources. In this way, we aimed to determine whether there is a differential influence of emotional information on…

  13. Detecting precursory patterns to enhance earthquake prediction in Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Florido, E.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Morales-Esteban, A.; Reyes, J.; Aznarte-Mellado, J. L.

    2015-03-01

    The prediction of earthquakes is a task of utmost difficulty that has been widely addressed by using many different strategies, with no particular good results thus far. Seismic time series of the four most active Chilean zones, the country with largest seismic activity, are analyzed in this study in order to discover precursory patterns for large earthquakes. First, raw data are transformed by removing aftershocks and foreshocks, since the goal is to only predict main shocks. New attributes, based on the well-known b-value, are also generated. Later, these data are labeled, and consequently discretized, by the application of a clustering algorithm, following the suggestions found in recent literature. Earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4.4 are identified in the time series. Finally, the sequence of labels acting as precursory patterns for such earthquakes are searched for within the datasets. Results verging on 70% on average are reported, leading to conclude that the methodology proposed is suitable to be applied in other zones with similar seismicity.

  14. Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, M. T.; Felzer, K. R.; Michael, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    The standard model for the origin of foreshocks is that they are earthquakes that trigger aftershocks larger than themselves (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989). This can be formally expressed in terms of a cascade model. In this model, aftershock magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, regardless of the size of the triggering earthquake, and aftershock timing and productivity follow Omori-Utsu scaling. An alternative hypothesis is that foreshocks are triggered incidentally by a nucleation process, such as pre-slip, that scales with mainshock size. If this were the case, foreshocks would potentially have predictive power of the mainshock magnitude. A number of predictions can be made from the cascade model, including the fraction of earthquakes that are foreshocks to larger events, the distribution of differences between foreshock and mainshock magnitudes, and the distribution of time lags between foreshocks and mainshocks. The last should follow the inverse Omori law, which will cause the appearance of an accelerating seismicity rate if multiple foreshock sequences are stacked (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003). All of these predictions are consistent with observations (Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Felzer et al. 2004). If foreshocks were to scale with mainshock size, this would be strong evidence against the cascade model. Recently, Bouchon et al. (2013) claimed that the expected acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences before interplate earthquakes is higher prior to M≥6.5 mainshocks than smaller mainshocks. Our re-analysis fails to support the statistical significance of their results. In particular, we find that their catalogs are not complete to the level assumed, and their ETAS model underestimates inverse Omori behavior. To conclude, seismicity data to date is consistent with the hypothesis that the nucleation process is the same for earthquakes of all sizes.

  15. A probabilistic neural network for earthquake magnitude prediction.

    PubMed

    Adeli, Hojjat; Panakkat, Ashif

    2009-09-01

    A probabilistic neural network (PNN) is presented for predicting the magnitude of the largest earthquake in a pre-defined future time period in a seismic region using eight mathematically computed parameters known as seismicity indicators. The indicators considered are the time elapsed during a particular number (n) of significant seismic events before the month in question, the slope of the Gutenberg-Richter inverse power law curve for the n events, the mean square deviation about the regression line based on the Gutenberg-Richter inverse power law for the n events, the average magnitude of the last n events, the difference between the observed maximum magnitude among the last n events and that expected through the Gutenberg-Richter relationship known as the magnitude deficit, the rate of square root of seismic energy released during the n events, the mean time or period between characteristic events, and the coefficient of variation of the mean time. Prediction accuracies of the model are evaluated using three different statistical measures: the probability of detection, the false alarm ratio, and the true skill score or R score. The PNN model is trained and tested using data for the Southern California region. The model yields good prediction accuracies for earthquakes of magnitude between 4.5 and 6.0. The PNN model presented in this paper complements the recurrent neural network model developed by the authors previously, where good results were reported for predicting earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.0.

  16. Impact of Obstructive Sleep Apnea on the Levels of Placental Growth Factor (PlGF) and Their Value for Predicting Short-Term Adverse Outcomes in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Barcelo, Antonia; Bauça, Josep Miquel; Yañez, Aina; Fueyo, Laura; Gomez, Cristina; de la Peña, Monica; Pierola, Javier; Rodriguez, Alberto; Sanchez-de-la-Torre, Manuel; Abad, Jorge; Mediano, Olga; Amilibia, Jose; Masdeu, Maria Jose; Teran, Joaquin; Montserrat, Josep Maria; Mayos, Mercè; Sanchez-de-la-Torre, Alicia; Barbé, Ferran

    2016-01-01

    Background Placental growth factor (PlGF) induces angiogenesis and promotes tissue repair, and plasma PlGF levels change markedly during acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Currently, the impact of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in patients with AMI is a subject of debate. Our objective was to evaluate the relationships between PlGF levels and both the severity of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and short-term outcomes after ACS in patients with and without OSA. Methods A total of 538 consecutive patients (312 OSA patients and 226 controls) admitted for ACS were included in this study. All patients underwent polygraphy in the first 72 hours after hospital admission. The severity of disease and short-term prognoses were evaluated during the hospitalization period. Plasma PlGF levels were measured using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Results Patients with OSA were significantly older and more frequently hypertensive and had higher BMIs than those without OSA. After adjusting for age, smoking status, BMI and hypertension, PlGF levels were significantly elevated in patients with OSA compared with patients without OSA (19.9 pg/mL, interquartile range: 16.6–24.5 pg/mL; 18.5 pg/mL, interquartile range: 14.7–22.7 pg/mL; p<0.001), and a higher apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was associated with higher PlGF concentrations (p<0.003). Patients with higher levels of PlGF had also an increased odds ratio for the presence of 3 or more diseased vessels and for a Killip score>1, even after adjustment. Conclusions The results of this study show that in patients with ACS, elevated plasma levels of PlGF are associated with the presence of OSA and with adverse outcomes during short-term follow-up. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01335087 PMID:26930634

  17. Local geodetic and seismic energy balance for shallow earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannavó, Flavio; Arena, Alessandra; Monaco, Carmelo

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake analysis for prediction purposes is a delicate and still open problem largely debated among scientists. In this work, we want to show that a successful time-predictable model is possible if based on large instrumental data from dense monitoring networks. To this aim, we propose a new simple data-driven and quantitative methodology which takes into account the accumulated geodetic strain and the seismically-released strain to calculate a balance of energies. The proposed index quantifies the state of energy of the selected area and allows us to evaluate better the ingoing potential seismic risk, giving a new tool to read recurrence of small-scale and shallow earthquakes. In spite of its intrinsic simple formulation, the application of the methodology has been successfully simulated in the Eastern flank of Mt. Etna (Italy) by tuning it in the period 2007-2011 and testing it in the period 2012-2013, allowing us to predict, within days, the earthquakes with highest magnitude.

  18. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  19. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  20. VLF/LF Radio Sounding of Ionospheric Perturbations Associated with Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Hayakawa, Masashi

    2007-01-01

    It is recently recognized that the ionosphere is very sensitive to seismic effects, and the detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes, seems to be very promising for short-term earthquake prediction. We have proposed a possible use of VLF/LF (very low frequency (3-30 kHz) /low frequency (30-300 kHz)) radio sounding of the seismo-ionospheric perturbations. A brief history of the use of subionospheric VLF/LF propagation for the short-term earthquake prediction is given, followed by a significant finding of ionospheric perturbation for the Kobe earthquake in 1995. After showing previous VLF/LF results, we present the latest VLF/LF findings; One is the statistical correlation of the ionospheric perturbation with earthquakes and the second is a case study for the Sumatra earthquake in December, 2004, indicating the spatical scale and dynamics of ionospheric perturbation for this earthquake.

  1. Simulation of Parallel Interacting Faults and Earthquake Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, P.; Weatherley, D.; Klein, B.

    2003-04-01

    Numerical shear experiments of a granular region using the lattice solid model often exhibit accelerating energy release in the lead-up to large events (Mora et al, 2000) and a growth in correlation lengths in the stress field (Mora and Place, 2002). While these results provide evidence for a Critical Point-like mechanism in elasto-dynamic systems and the possibility of earthquake forecasting but they do not prove such a mechanism occurs in the crust. Cellular automaton models simulations exhibit accelerating energy release prior to large events or unpredictable behaviour in which large events may occur at any time depending on tuning parameters such as dissipation ratio and stress transfer ratio (Weatherley and Mora, 2003). The mean stress plots from the particle simulations are most similar to the CA mean stress plots near the boundary of the predictable and unpredictable regimes suggesting that elasto-dynamic systems may be close to the borderline of predictable and unpredictable. To progress in resolving the question of whether more realistic fault system models exhibit predictable behaviour and to determine whether they also have an unpredictable and predictable regime depending on tuning parameters like that seen in CA simulations, we developed a 2D elasto-dynamic model of parallel interacting faults. The friction is slip weakening until a critical slip distance. Henceforth, the friction is at the dynamic value until the slip rate drops below the value it attained when the critical slip distance was exceeded. As the slip rate continues to drop, the friction increases back to the static value as a function of slip rate. Numerical shear experiments are conducted in a model with 41 parallel interacting faults. Calculations of the inverse metric defined in Klein et al (2000) indicate that the system is non-ergodic. Furthermore, by calculating the correllation between the stress fields at different times we determine that the system exhibits so called ``glassy

  2. Short-term forecasting of aftershock sequences, microseismicity and swarms inside the Corinth Gulf continental rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segou, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Corinth Gulf (Central Greece) is the fastest continental rift in the world with extension rates 11-15 mm/yr with diverse seismic deformation including earthquakes with M greater than 6.0, several periods of increased microseismic activity, usually lasting few months and possibly related with fluid diffusion, and swarm episodes lasting few days. In this study I perform a retrospective forecast experiment between 1995-2012, focusing on the comparison between physics-based and statistical models for short term time classes. Even though Corinth gulf has been studied extensively in the past there is still today a debate whether earthquake activity is related with the existence of either a shallow dipping structure or steeply dipping normal faults. In the light of the above statement, two CRS realization are based on resolving Coulomb stress changes on specified receiver faults, expressing the aforementioned structural models, whereas the third CRS model uses optimally-oriented for failure planes. The CRS implementation accounts for stress changes following all major ruptures with M greater than 4.5 within the testing phase. I also estimate fault constitutive parameters from modeling the response to major earthquakes at the vicinity of the gulf (Aσ=0.2, stressing rate app. 0.02 bar/yr). The generic ETAS parameters are taken as the maximum likelihood estimates derived from the stochastic declustering of the modern seismicity catalog (1995-2012) with minimum triggering magnitude M2.5. I test whether the generic ETAS can efficiently describe the aftershock spatio-temporal clustering but also the evolution of swarm episodes and microseismicity. For the reason above, I implement likelihood tests to evaluate the forecasts for their spatial consistency and for the total amount of predicted versus observed events with M greater than 3.0 in 10-day time windows during three distinct evaluation phases; the first evaluation phase focuses on the Aigio 1995 aftershock sequence (15

  3. Vitreon, a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade.

    PubMed Central

    Blinder, K J; Peyman, G A; Desai, U R; Nelson, N C; Alturki, W; Paris, C L

    1992-01-01

    This investigation of the liquid perfluorocarbon, perfluorophenanthrene (Vitreon), establishes its safety and efficacy as a short-term vitreoretinal tamponade. We utilised Vitreon as an intraoperative tool and postoperative vitreoretinal tamponade in 16 patients. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) (six), giant retinal tear (four), rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (three), retinal detachment with keratoprosthesis (two), and submacular and vitreous haemorrhage (one) were successfully repaired. Vitreon was left in the eye and removed 5 days to 4 weeks postoperatively. Complications encountered included proliferative PVR (five), limited peripheral retinal detachment (three), macular pucker (two) cataract (three), hypotony (two), excessive fibrin reaction (one), and elevated intraocular pressure (one). At the latest evaluation, all retinas are attached with a follow-up of 1.25 to 12 months (mean 6.8 months). PMID:1420054

  4. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  5. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... Thunderstorms & Lightning Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Main Content Earthquakes Earthquakes are sudden rolling or shaking events caused ... at any time of the year. Before An Earthquake Look around places where you spend time. Identify ...

  6. Emergency presentation of cancer and short-term mortality

    PubMed Central

    McPhail, S; Elliss-Brookes, L; Shelton, J; Ives, A; Greenslade, M; Vernon, S; Morris, E J A; Richards, M

    2013-01-01

    Background: The short-term survival following a cancer diagnosis in England is lower than that in comparable countries, with the difference in excess mortality primarily occurring in the months immediately after diagnosis. We assess the impact of emergency presentation (EP) on the excess mortality in England over the course of the year following diagnosis. Methods: All colorectal and cervical cancers presenting in England and all breast, lung, and prostate cancers in the East of England in 2006–2008 are included. The variation in the likelihood of EP with age, stage, sex, co-morbidity, and income deprivation is modelled. The excess mortality over 0–1, 1–3, 3–6, and 6–12 months after diagnosis and its dependence on these case-mix factors and presentation route is then examined. Results: More advanced stage and older age are predictive of EP, as to a lesser extent are co-morbidity, higher income deprivation, and female sex. In the first month after diagnosis, we observe case-mix-adjusted excess mortality rate ratios of 7.5 (cervical), 5.9 (colorectal), 11.7 (breast ), 4.0 (lung), and 20.8 (prostate) for EP compared with non-EP. Conclusion: Individuals who present as an emergency experience high short-term mortality in all cancer types examined compared with non-EPs. This is partly a case-mix effect but EP remains predictive of short-term mortality even when age, stage, and co-morbidity are accounted for. PMID:24045658

  7. Marathon Running May Cause Short-Term Kidney Injury

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_164324.html Marathon Running May Cause Short-Term Kidney Injury But ... of endurance are also tough on the kidneys. "Marathon runners demonstrate transient or reverse short-term kidney ...

  8. Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Earthquakes in Geothermal Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, J.; Edwards, B.; Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Tramelli, A.; Kraaijpoel, D.; Cabrera, B. M.; Maercklin, N.; Troise, C.

    2013-06-01

    Induced seismicity from anthropogenic sources can be a significant nuisance to a local population and in extreme cases lead to damage to vulnerable structures. One type of induced seismicity of particular recent concern, which, in some cases, can limit development of a potentially important clean energy source, is that associated with geothermal power production. A key requirement for the accurate assessment of seismic hazard (and risk) is a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) that predicts the level of earthquake shaking (in terms of, for example, peak ground acceleration) of an earthquake of a certain magnitude at a particular distance. Few such models currently exist in regard to geothermal-related seismicity, and consequently the evaluation of seismic hazard in the vicinity of geothermal power plants is associated with high uncertainty. Various ground-motion datasets of induced and natural seismicity (from Basel, Geysers, Hengill, Roswinkel, Soultz, and Voerendaal) were compiled and processed, and moment magnitudes for all events were recomputed homogeneously. These data are used to show that ground motions from induced and natural earthquakes cannot be statistically distinguished. Empirical GMPEs are derived from these data; and, although they have similar characteristics to recent GMPEs for natural and mining-related seismicity, the standard deviations are higher. To account for epistemic uncertainties, stochastic models subsequently are developed based on a single corner frequency and with parameters constrained by the available data. Predicted ground motions from these models are fitted with functional forms to obtain easy-to-use GMPEs. These are associated with standard deviations derived from the empirical data to characterize aleatory variability. As an example, we demonstrate the potential use of these models using data from Campi Flegrei.

  9. 75 FR 24497 - Short-Term, Small Amount Loans

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-05

    ... ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 701 RIN 3133-AD71 Short-Term, Small Amount Loans AGENCY: National Credit Union... federal credit unions (FCUs) to offer short-term, small amount loans (STS loans) as a viable alternative... regcomments@ncua.gov . Include ``[Your name] Comments on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (Short-term,...

  10. Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

  11. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  12. Short-term hot hardness characteristics of rolling-element steels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chevalier, J. L.; Dietrich, M. W.; Zaretsky, E. V.

    1972-01-01

    Short-term hot hardness studies were performed with five vacuum-melted steels at temperatures from 294 to 887 K (70 to 1140 F). Based upon a minimum Rockwell C hardness of 58, the temperature limitation on all materials studied was dependent on the initial room temperature hardness and the tempering temperature of each material. For the same room temperature hardness, the short-term hot hardness characteristics were identical and independent of material composition. An equation was developed to predict the short-term hardness at temperature as a function of initial room temperature hardness for AISI 52100, as well as the high-speed tool steels.

  13. An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern Anatolia at the approach of the 2011 Van earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mojarab, Masoud; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Memarian, Hossein; Zare, Mehdi

    2015-07-01

    On 23rd October 2011, an M7.3 earthquake near the Turkish city of Van, killed more than 600 people, injured over 4000, and left about 60,000 homeless. It demolished hundreds of buildings and caused great damages to thousand others in Van, Ercis, Muradiye, and Çaldıran. The earthquake's epicenter is located about 70 km from a preceding M7.3 earthquake that occurred in November 1976 and destroyed several villages near the Turkey-Iran border and killed thousands of people. This study, by means of retrospective application of the M8 algorithm, checks to see if the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted. The algorithm is based on pattern recognition of Times of Increased Probability (TIP) of a target earthquake from the transient seismic sequence at lower magnitude ranges in a Circle of Investigation (CI). Specifically, we applied a modified M8 algorithm adjusted to a rather low level of earthquake detection in the region following three different approaches to determine seismic transients. In the first approach, CI centers are distributed on intersections of morphostructural lineaments recognized as prone to magnitude 7 + earthquakes. In the second approach, centers of CIs are distributed on local extremes of the seismic density distribution, and in the third approach, CI centers were distributed uniformly on the nodes of a 1∘×1∘ grid. According to the results of the M8 algorithm application, the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted in any of the three approaches. We noted that it is possible to consider the intersection of TIPs instead of their union to improve the certainty of the prediction results. Our study confirms the applicability of a modified version of the M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes at the Iranian-Turkish plateau, as well as for mitigation of damages in seismic events in which pattern recognition algorithms may play an important role.

  14. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  15. Short-term GNSS satellite clock stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griggs, E.; Kursinski, E. R.; Akos, D.

    2015-08-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) clock stability is characterized via the modified Allan deviation using active hydrogen masers as the receiver frequency reference. The high stability of the maser reference allows the GNSS clock contribution to the GNSS carrier phase variance to be determined quite accurately. Satellite clock stability for four different GNSS constellations are presented, highlighting the similarities and differences between the constellations as well as satellite blocks and clock types. Impact on high-rate applications, such as GNSS radio occultation (RO), is assessed through the calculation of the maximum carrier phase error due to clock instability. White phase noise appears to dominate at subsecond time scales. However, while we derived the theoretical contribution of white phase modulation to the modified Allan deviation, our analysis of the GNSS satellite clocks was limited to 1-200 s time scales because of inconsistencies between the subsecond results from the commercial and software-defined receivers. The rubidium frequency standards on board the Global Positioning System (GPS) Block IIF, BeiDou, and Galileo satellites show improved stability results in comparison to previous GPS blocks for time scales relevant to RO. The Globalnaya Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema (GLONASS) satellites are the least stable of the GNSS constellations in the short term and will need high-rate corrections to produce RO results comparable to those from the other GNSS constellations.

  16. Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, Jeffery G.; Dwyer, John L.; Roy, David P.

    2011-01-01

    As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record.

  17. The role of the Federal government in the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Filson, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    Earthquake prediction research in the United States us carried out under the aegis of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977. One of the objectives of the act is "the implementation in all areas of high or moderate seismic risk, of a system (including personnel and procedures) for predicting damaging earthquakes and for identifying, evaluating, and accurately characterizing seismic hazards." Among the four Federal agencies working under the 1977 act, the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for earthquake prediction research and technological implementation. The USGS has adopted a goal that is stated quite simply; predict the time, place, and magnitude of damaging earthquakes. The Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment represents the msot concentrated and visible effor to date to test progress toward this goal. 

  18. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  19. Prediction model of earthquake with the identification of earthquake source polarity mechanism through the focal classification using ANFIS and PCA technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setyonegoro, W.

    2016-05-01

    Incidence of earthquake disaster has caused casualties and material in considerable amounts. This research has purposes to predictability the return period of earthquake with the identification of the mechanism of earthquake which in case study area in Sumatra. To predict earthquakes which training data of the historical earthquake is using ANFIS technique. In this technique the historical data set compiled into intervals of earthquake occurrence daily average in a year. Output to be obtained is a model return period earthquake events daily average in a year. Return period earthquake occurrence models that have been learning by ANFIS, then performed the polarity recognition through image recognition techniques on the focal sphere using principal component analysis PCA method. The results, model predicted a return period earthquake events for the average monthly return period showed a correlation coefficient 0.014562.

  20. The Ordered Network Structure and Prediction Summary for M≥7 Earthquakes in Xinjiang Region of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Men, Ke-Pei; Zhao, Kai

    2014-12-01

    M ≥7 earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang of China and its adjacent region since 1800. The main orderly values are 30 a × k (k = 1,2,3), 11 ~ 12 a, 41 ~ 43 a, 18 ~ 19 a, and 5 ~ 6 a. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered network structure analysis with complex network technology, we focus on the prediction summary of M ≥ 7 earthquakes by using the ordered network structure, and add new information to further optimize network, hence construct the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 7 earthquakes. In this paper, the network structure revealed fully the regularity of seismic activity of M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the study region during the past 210 years. Based on this, the Karakorum M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the M7.9 earthquake on the frontier of Russia, Mongol, and China in 2003, and two Yutian M7.3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 were predicted successfully. At the same time, a new prediction opinion is presented that the future two M ≥ 7 earthquakes will probably occur around 2019 - 2020 and 2025 - 2026 in this region. The results show that large earthquake occurred in defined region can be predicted. The method of ordered network structure analysis produces satisfactory results for the mid-and-long term prediction of M ≥ 7 earthquakes.

  1. Retrospective Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, M. J.; Marzocchi, W.; Taroni, M.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M.; Liukis, M.; Rhoades, D. A.; Cattania, C.; Christophersen, A.; Hainzl, S.; Helmstetter, A.; Jimenez, A.; Steacy, S.; Jordan, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    The M7.1 Darfield, New Zealand (NZ), earthquake triggered a complex earthquake cascade that provides a wealth of new scientific data to study earthquake triggering and the predictive skill of statistical and physics-based forecasting models. To this end, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is conducting a retrospective evaluation of over a dozen short-term forecasting models that were developed by groups in New Zealand, Europe and the US. The statistical model group includes variants of the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, non-parametric kernel smoothing models, and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP) model. The physics-based model group includes variants of the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis, which are embedded either in Dieterich's (1994) rate-state formulation or in statistical Omori-Utsu clustering formulations (hybrid models). The goals of the CSEP evaluation are to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms governing earthquake triggering, to improve short-term earthquake forecasting models and time-dependent hazard assessment for the Canterbury area, and to understand the influence of poor-quality, real-time data on the skill of operational (real-time) forecasts. To assess the latter, we use the earthquake catalog data that the NZ CSEP Testing Center archived in near real-time during the earthquake sequence and compare the predictive skill of models using the archived data as input with the skill attained using the best available data today. We present results of the retrospective model comparison and discuss implications for operational earthquake forecasting.

  2. Earthquake prediction research at the Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1979-01-01

    Nevertheless, basic earthquake-related information has always been of consuming interest to the public and the media in this part of California (fig. 2.). So it is not surprising that earthquake prediction continues to be a significant reserach program at the laboratory. Several of the current spectrum of projects related to prediction are discussed below. 

  3. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Cleanup Workers Hurricanes PSAs ASL Videos: Hurricanes Landslides & Mudslides Lightning Lightning Safety Tips First Aid Recommendations ... Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Earthquakes Language: ...

  4. Earthquake ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    New earthquake ground-motion relations for hard-rock and soil sites in eastern North America (ENA), including estimates of their aleatory uncertainty (variability) have been developed based on a stochastic finite-fault model. The model incorporates new information obtained from ENA seismographic data gathered over the past 10 years, including three-component broadband data that provide new information on ENA source and path effects. Our new prediction equations are similar to the previous ground-motion prediction equations of Atkinson and Boore (1995), which were based on a stochastic point-source model. The main difference is that high-frequency amplitudes (f ??? 5 Hz) are less than previously predicted (by about a factor of 1.6 within 100 km), because of a slightly lower average stress parameter (140 bars versus 180 bars) and a steeper near-source attenuation. At frequencies less than 5 Hz, the predicted ground motions from the new equations are generally within 25% of those predicted by Atkinson and Boore (1995). The prediction equations agree well with available ENA ground-motion data as evidenced by near-zero average residuals (within a factor of 1.2) for all frequencies, and the lack of any significant residual trends with distance. However, there is a tendency to positive residuals for moderate events at high frequencies in the distance range from 30 to 100 km (by as much as a factor of 2). This indicates epistemic uncertainty in the prediction model. The positive residuals for moderate events at < 100 km could be eliminated by an increased stress parameter, at the cost of producing negative residuals in other magnitude-distance ranges; adjustment factors to the equations are provided that may be used to model this effect.

  5. Recent Progress and Development on Multi-parameters Remote Sensing Application in Earthquake Monitoring in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Xuhui; Zhang, Xuemin; Hong, Shunying; Jing, Feng; Zhao, Shufan

    2014-05-01

    In the last ten years, a few national research plans and scientific projects on remote sensing application in Earthquake monitoring research are implemented in China. Focusing on advancing earthquake monitoring capability searching for the way of earthquake prediction, satellite electromagnetism, satellite infrared and D-InSAR technology were developed systematically and some remarkable progress were achieved by statistical research on historical earthquakes and summarized initially the space precursory characters, which laid the foundation for gradually promoting the practical use. On the basis of these works, argumentation on the first space-based platform has been finished in earthquake stereoscope observation system in China, and integrated earthquake remote sensing application system has been designed comprehensively. To develop the space-based earthquake observational system has become a major trend of technological development in earthquake monitoring and prediction. We shall pay more emphasis on the construction of the space segment of China earthquake stereoscope observation system and Imminent major scientific projects such as earthquake deformation observation system and application research combined INSAR, satellite gravity and GNSS with the goal of medium and long term earthquake monitoring and forcasting, infrared observation and technical system and application research with the goal of medium and short term earthquake monitoring and forcasting, and satellite-based electromagnetic observation and technical system and application system with the goal of short term and imminent earthquake monitoring.

  6. Pipeline experiment co-located with USGS Parkfield earthquake prediction project

    SciTech Connect

    Isenberg, J.; Richardson, E.

    1995-12-31

    A field experiment to investigate the response of buried pipelines to lateral offsets and traveling waves has been operational since June, 1988 at the Owens` Pasture site near Parkfield, CA where the US Geological Survey has predicted a M6 earthquake. Although the predicted earthquake has not yet occurred, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and 1992 M4.7 earthquake near Parkfield produced measurable response at the pipeline experiment. The present paper describes upgrades to the experiment which were introduced after Loma Prieta which performed successfully in the 1992 event.

  7. Are Earthquakes Predictable? A Study on Magnitude Correlations in Earthquake Catalog and Experimental Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.

  8. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

  9. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    PubMed

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review.

  10. The Earthquake Prediction Experiment on the Basis of the Jet Stream's Precursor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, H. C.; Tikhonov, I. N.

    2014-12-01

    Simultaneous analysis of the jet stream maps and EQ data of M > 6.0 have been made. 58 cases of EQ occurred in 2006-2010 were studied. It has been found that interruption or velocity flow lines cross above an epicenter of EQ take place 1-70 days prior to event. The duration was 6-12 hours. The assumption is that jet stream will go up or down near an epicenter. In 45 cases the distance between epicenters and jet stream's precursor does not exceed 90 km. The forecast during 30 days before the EQ was 66.1 % (Wu and Tikhonov, 2014). This technique has been used to predict the strong EQ and pre-registered on the website (for example, the 23 October 2011, M 7.2 EQ (Turkey); the 20 May 2012, M 6.1 EQ (Italy); the 16 April 2013, M 7.8 EQ (Iran); the 12 November 2013, M 6.6 EQ (Russia); the 03 March 2014, M 6.7 Ryukyu EQ (Japan); the 21 July 2014, M 6.2 Kuril EQ). We obtain satisfactory accuracy of the epicenter location. As well we define the short alarm period. That's the positive aspects of forecast. However, estimates of magnitude contain a big uncertainty. Reference Wu, H.C., Tikhonov, I.N., 2014. Jet streams anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M > 6.0. Research in Geophysics, Special Issue on Earthquake Precursors. Vol. 4. No 1. doi:10.4081/rg.2014.4939. The precursor of M9.0 Japan EQ on 2011/03/11(fig1). A. M6.1 Italy EQ (2012/05/20, 44.80 N, 11.19 E, H = 5.1 km) Prediction: 2012/03/20~2012/04/20 (45.6 N, 10.5 E), M > 5.5(fig2) http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-764800 B. M7.8 Iran EQ (2013/04/16, 28.11 N, 62.05 E, H = 82.0 km) Prediction: 2013/01/14~2013/02/04 (28.0 N, 61.3 E) M > 6.0(fig3) http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-910919 C. M6.6 Russia EQ (2013/11/12, 54.68 N, 162.29 E, H = 47.2 km). Prediction: 2013/10/27~2013/11/13 (56.0 N, 162.9 E) M > 5.5 http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1053599 D. M6.7 Japan EQ (2014/03/03, 27.41 N, 127.34 E, H = 111.2 km). Prediction: 2013/12/02 ~2014/01/15 (26.7 N, 128.1 E) M > 6.5(fig4) http

  11. Risk Communication on Earthquake Prediction Studies -"No L'Aquila quake risk" experts probed in Italy in June 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, S.; Koketsu, K.; Kuwabara, E.; Tomari, J.

    2010-12-01

    For the previous 6 months from the L'Aquila earthquake which occurred on 6th April 2009, the seismicity in that region had been active. Having become even more active and reached to magnitude 4 earthquake on 30th March, the government held Major Risks Committee which is a part of the Civil Protection Department and is tasked with forecasting possible risks by collating and analyzing data from a variety of sources and making preventative recommendations. At the press conference immediately after the committee, they reported that "The scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable." 6 days later, a magunitude 6.3 earthquake attacked L'Aquila and killed 308 people. On 3rd June next year, the prosecutors opened the investigation after complaints of the victims that far more people would have fled their homes that night if there had been no reassurances of the Major Risks Committee the previous week. This issue becomes widely known to the seismological society especially after an email titled "Letter of Support for Italian Earthquake Scientists" from seismologists at the National Geophysics and Volcanology Institute (INGV) sent worldwide. It says that the L'Aquila Prosecutors office indicted of manslaughter the members of the Major Risks Committee and that the charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm to the population before the earthquake struck. It is true that there is no generalized method to predict earthquakes but failing the short term alarm is not the reason for the investigation of the scientists. The chief prosecutor stated that "the committee could have provided the people with better advice", and "it wasn't the case that they did not receive any warnings, because there had been tremors". The email also requests sign-on support for the open letter to the president of Italy from Earth sciences colleagues from all over the world and collected more than 5000 signatures

  12. Earthquake prediction on boundaries of the Arabian Plate: premonitory chains of small earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaniv, M.; Agnon, A.; Shebalin, P.

    2009-12-01

    The RTP method is a probabilistic prediction method for strong earthquakes (Keilis-Borok et al., 2004). Based on simple pattern recognition algorithms and tuned on historical seismic catalogs, RTP has been running as a prediction in advance experiment since 1997. We present a similar system aimed at improving the algorithm and tuning it to regional catalogs, focusing on the Arabian Plate. RTP is based on recognition of "Earthquake chains", microseismic patterns that capture a rise in activity and in correlation range. A chain is defined as a closed set of "neighbor events" with epicenters and times of occurrences separated by less than a spatial parameter R0 and a temporal parameter τ, respectively. The seismic catalog can be viewed as a non-directional graph, with earthquakes as vertices, neighbor pairs as edges and chains as connected components of the graph. Various algorithms were tried, based on different concepts. Some using graph theory concepts, and others focusing on the data structure in the catalog. All algorithms aim at recognizing neighboring pairs of events, and combining the pairs into chains.They relies on a number of parameters: -Minimum length for a valid chain L0 -Weights for the spatial and temporal thresholds -Target magnitude: the minimum magnitude we aim to predict -Cutoff value: the minimum magnitude to be taken into account The output for an algorithms is a set of chains. The list is filtered for chains longer than L0. The 2D parameter space was mapped. For every pair of R0 and τ three characteristics were calculated: -Number of chains found -Mean number of events in a chain -Mean size (Max distance between events in a chain) of chains Each of these plots as a surface, showing dependance on the parameters R0 and τ. The most recent version of the algorithm was run on the NEIC catalog. It recognizes three chains longer than 15 events, with Target events, shown in the figure. In the GII catalog only two chains are found. Both start with a

  13. Adjusting the M8 algorithm to earthquake prediction in the Iranian plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mojarab, Masoud; Memarian, Hossein; Zare, Mehdi; Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2017-03-01

    Earthquake prediction is one of the challenging problems of seismology. The present study intended to setup a routine prediction of major earthquakes in the Iranian plateau using a modification of the intermediate-term middle-range algorithm M8, in which original version has demonstrated high performance in a real-time Global Test over the last two decades. An investigation of earthquake catalog covering the entire the Iranian plateau through 2012 has shown that a modification of the M8 algorithm, adjusted for a rather low level of earthquake occurrence reported in the region, is capable for targeting magnitude 7.5+ events. The occurrence of the April 16, 2013, M7.7 Saravan and the September 24, 2013, M7.7 Awaran earthquakes at the time of writing this paper (14 months before Saravan earthquake occurrence) confirmed the results of investigation and demonstrated the need for further studies in this region. Earlier tests, M8 application in all over the Iran, showed that the 2013 Saravan and Awaran earthquakes may precede a great earthquake with magnitude 8+ in Makran region. To verify this statement, the algorithm M8 was applied once again on an updated catalog to September 2013. The result indicated that although the study region recently experienced two magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes, it remains prone to a major earthquake. The present study confirms the applicability of M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes in the Iranian plateau and establishes an opportunity for a routine monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes that can play a significant role in mitigation of damages due to natural hazard.

  14. Working memory training improves visual short-term memory capacity.

    PubMed

    Schwarb, Hillary; Nail, Jayde; Schumacher, Eric H

    2016-01-01

    Since antiquity, philosophers, theologians, and scientists have been interested in human memory. However, researchers today are still working to understand the capabilities, boundaries, and architecture. While the storage capabilities of long-term memory are seemingly unlimited (Bahrick, J Exp Psychol 113:1-2, 1984), working memory, or the ability to maintain and manipulate information held in memory, seems to have stringent capacity limits (e.g., Cowan, Behav Brain Sci 24:87-185, 2001). Individual differences, however, do exist and these differences can often predict performance on a wide variety of tasks (cf. Engle What is working-memory capacity? 297-314, 2001). Recently, researchers have promoted the enticing possibility that simple behavioral training can expand the limits of working memory which indeed may also lead to improvements on other cognitive processes as well (cf. Morrison and Chein, Psychol Bull Rev 18:46-60 2011). However, initial investigations across a wide variety of cognitive functions have produced mixed results regarding the transferability of training-related improvements. Across two experiments, the present research focuses on the benefit of working memory training on visual short-term memory capacity-a cognitive process that has received little attention in the training literature. Data reveal training-related improvement of global measures of visual short-term memory as well as of measures of the independent sub-processes that contribute to capacity (Awh et al., Psychol Sci 18(7):622-628, 2007). These results suggest that the ability to inhibit irrelevant information within and between trials is enhanced via n-back training allowing for selective improvement on untrained tasks. Additionally, we highlight a potential limitation of the standard adaptive training procedure and propose a modified design to ensure variability in the training environment.

  15. 75 FR 58285 - Short-Term, Small Amount Loans

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-24

    ... Part 701 RIN 3133-AD71 Short-Term, Small Amount Loans Agency: National Credit Union Administration... unions (FCUs) to offer short-term, small amount loans (STS loans) as a viable alternative to predatory... permitted under the general lending rule, but imposes limitations on the permissible term, amount, and...

  16. 77 FR 21057 - Short-Term Investment Funds

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-09

    ... limiting the STIF's investments to shorter-term assets and generally requiring those assets to be held to... to invest the STIF's fiduciary assets in a diversified portfolio of short- term, high quality debt... Office of the Comptroller of the Currency 12 CFR Part 9 RIN 1557-AD37 Short-Term Investment Funds...

  17. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  18. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  19. A Short-Term Delivery Model for Counseling Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knott, J. Eugene

    The author discusses a short-term delivery model which forms the essential mode of operation at the counseling center at Rhode Island College. He prefaces his discription of the model by indicating that not all clients, problems or counselors are amenable to this short-term approach. There are three steps or elements in the delivery model: 1)…

  20. Short-Term Training--Where the Action Is!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, George R.

    In order to address major permanent changes in the economic structure and workforce of its community, Chemeketa Community College (CCC) in Oregon has made a commitment to initiate as many short-term training programs as its resources permit. Short-term training, which takes less time than regular one-year certificate or two-year associate degree…

  1. Double Dissociations in Visual and Spatial Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klauer, Karl Christoph; Zhao, Zengmei

    2004-01-01

    A visual short-term memory task was more strongly disrupted by visual than spatial interference, and a spatial memory task was simultaneously more strongly disrupted by spatial than visual interference. This double dissociation supports a fractionation of visuospatial short-term memory into separate visual and spatial components. In 6 experiments,…

  2. The Virtual Quake Earthquake Simulator: Earthquake Probability Statistics for the El Mayor-Cucapah Region and Evidence of Predictability in Simulated Earthquake Sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, K.; Yoder, M. R.; Heien, E. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Parker, J. W.; Donnellan, A.

    2015-12-01

    We introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts using Virtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m > 7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alert based forecasting metric similar to those presented in Keilis-Borok (2002); Molchan (1997), and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long standing question of activation vs quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviors separately for independent fault sections; some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico.

  3. Response facilitation: implications for perceptual theory, psychotherapy, neurophysiology, and earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Medici, R G; Frey, A H; Frey, D

    1985-04-01

    There have been numerous naturalistic observations and anecdotal reports of abnormal animal behavior prior to earthquakes. Basic physiological and behavioral data have been brought together with geophysical data to develop a specific explanation to account for how animals could perceive and respond to precursors of impending earthquakes. The behavior predicted provides a reasonable approximation to the reported abnormal behaviors; that is, the behavior appears to be partly reflexive and partly operant. It can best be described as agitated stereotypic behavior. The explanation formulated has substantial implications for perceptual theory, psychotherapy, and neurophysiology, as well as for earthquake prediction. Testable predictions for biology, psychology, and geophysics can be derived from the explanation.

  4. Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Speech-Disordered Children: Implications for Articulatory Coding in Short-Term Memory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raine, Adrian; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Children with speech disorders had lower short-term memory capacity and smaller word length effect than control children. Children with speech disorders also had reduced speech-motor activity during rehearsal. Results suggest that speech rate may be a causal determinant of verbal short-term memory capacity. (BC)

  5. Fuzzy system applications for short-term electric load forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Kandari, Ahmad Mohammad

    Load forecasting is an important function in economic power generation, allocation between plants (Unit Commitment Scheduling), maintenance scheduling, and for system security applications such as peak shaving by power interchange with interconnected utilities. In this thesis the problem of fuzzy short term load forecasting is formulated and solved. The thesis starts with a discussion of conventional algorithms used in short-term load forecasting. These algorithms are based on least error squares and least absolute value. The theory behind each algorithm is explained. Three different models are developed and tested in the first part of the thesis. The first model (A) is a regression model that takes into account the weather parameters in summer and winter seasons. The second model (B) is a harmonics based model, which does not account for weather parameters, but considers the parameters as a function of time. Model (B) can be used where variations in weather parameters are not available. Finally, model (C) is created as a hybrid combination of models A and B. The parameters of the three models are estimated using the two static estimation algorithms and are used later to predict the load for twenty-four hours ahead. The results obtained are discussed and conclusions are drawn for these models. In the second part of the thesis new fuzzy models are developed for crisp load power with fuzzy load parameters and for fuzzy load power with fuzzy load parameters. Three fuzzy models (A), (B) and (C) are developed. The fuzzy load model (A) is a fuzzy linear regression model for summer and winter seasons. Model (B) is a harmonic fuzzy model, which does not account for weather parameters. Finally fuzzy load model (C) is a hybrid combination of fuzzy load models (A) and (B). Estimating the fuzzy parameters for the three models turns out to be one of linear optimization. The fuzzy parameters are obtained for the three models. These parameters are used to predict the load as a

  6. Intermediate-term prediction in advance of the Loma Prieta earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Keilis-Borok, V.I.; Kossobokov, V.; Rotvain, I. ); Knopoff, L. )

    1990-08-01

    The Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 was predicted by the use of two pattern recognition algorithms, CN and M8. The prediction with algorithm CN was that an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.4 was expected to occur in a roughly four year interval staring in midsummer 1986 in a polygonal spatial window of approximate average dimensions 600 {times} 450 km, encompassing Northern California and Northern Nevada. The prediction with algorithm M8 was that an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 7.0 was expected to occur within 5 to 7 years after 1985, in a spatial window of approximate average dimensions 800 {times} 560 km. The predictions were communicated in advance of the earthquake. In previous, mainly retrospective applications of these algorithms, successful predictions occurred in about 80% of the cases.

  7. Current motion and short-term deformations in the Suez Sinai area from GPS observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riguzzi, Federica; Pietrantonio, Grazia; Piersanti, Antonio; Mahmoud, Salah M.

    2006-07-01

    We analyze observations from eight GPS campaigns carried out between 1997 and 2005 on a network of 13 sites in the Suez-Sinai area, where separation between the African and the Arabian plates takes place. This is the key area to understand if and in which way Sinai behaves like a sub-plate of the African plate and the role played by seismic and geodetic (long-term) deformation release. Our analysis shows that, on average, the Suez-Sinai area motion, in terms of ITRF00 velocities, matches the African plate motion defined by the NNR-NUVEL-1A model. The horizontal principal strain rate axes estimated separately in the Gulf of Suez area and in the northern Sinai vary from compression across the Gulf (-2.2 ± 1.2) × 10 -8 year -1 to NE extension (1.0 ± 1.5) × 10 -8 year -1 in the North, showing the presence of two distinct domains, so that in our opinion Sinai cannot be considered simply a unique rigid block. The analysis of GPS baseline length variations shows short-term deformations across the Gulf of Suez, reaching up a maximum value of more than 1 cm in 8 years. Since current geodynamical models do not predict significant tectonic deformation in this area, we work under the hypothesis that a contribute may be expected by post-seismic relaxation effects. Under this hypothesis, we compare the baselines length variations with the post-seismic relaxation field associated with five major local earthquakes occurred in the area, testing two different viscoelastic models. Our results show that the detected short-term deformations are better modeled for viscosity values of 10 18 Pa s in the lower crust and 10 20 Pa s in the asthenosphere. However, since the modeled post-seismic effect results modest and a certain amount of the detected deformation is not accounted for, we think that an improved modeling should take into account the lateral heterogeneities of crust and upper mantle structures.

  8. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  9. Earthquake mechanism and predictability shown by a laboratory fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, C.-Y.

    1994-01-01

    Slip events generated in a laboratory fault model consisting of a circulinear chain of eight spring-connected blocks of approximately equal weight elastically driven to slide on a frictional surface are studied. It is found that most of the input strain energy is released by a relatively few large events, which are approximately time predictable. A large event tends to roughen stress distribution along the fault, whereas the subsequent smaller events tend to smooth the stress distribution and prepare a condition of simultaneous criticality for the occurrence of the next large event. The frequency-size distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquakes, except for a falloff for the largest events due to the finite energy-storage capacity of the fault system. Slip distributions, in different events are commonly dissimilar. Stress drop, slip velocity, and rupture velocity all tend to increase with event size. Rupture-initiation locations are usually not close to the maximum-slip locations. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

  10. Frailty as a predictor of short-term adverse outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Tiago; Paúl, Constança; Gobbens, Robbert J.J.

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life. PMID:26246968

  11. On Possibility To Using Deep-wells Geo-observatories For The Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esipko, O. A.; Rosaev, A. E.

    The problem of earthquake prediction has a significant interest. Taking into account both internal and external factors are necessary. Some publications, attempt to correlate time of seismic events with tides, and show ability of the earthquake prediction, based geophysical fields observations, on are known. In according with our studying earthquake catalogue, most close before Spitak (07.12.1988), significant earthquake was at Caucasus 23.09.1988 in accompaniment Afganistan earthquake 25.09.1988. We had earthquake in Tajikistan after Spitak 22.01.1989 . All thus events take place approximately at similar phase of monthly tide. On the other side, measurements in geo-observatories, based on deep wells, show strong correlation in variations some of geophysical fields and cosmic factors. We study thermal field's variations in Tyrnyaus deep well (North Caucasus) before and after Spitak earthquake. The changes of thermal field, which may be related with catastrophic event were detected. The comparison of according isotherms show, that mean thermal gradient remarkable decrease just before earthquake. The development of monitoring over geothermic fields variations, understanding of their nature, and methods of taking into account seasonal gravitation and electromagnetic variations at the seismic variations detection give us an ability to close for a forecast problem solution. The main conclusions are: 1)Tidal forces are important factor for catastrophic Spitak earthquake generation; 2)Control over geophysical fields variations in well's geo-observatories based in seismic active regions, may allow us to understand the character of change physical parameters before earthquake. It gives ability to develop method of earthquake prediction.

  12. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Varnes, D.J.

    1989-01-01

    During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic

  13. A forecast experiment of earthquake activity in Japan under Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, N.; Yokoi, S.; Nanjo, K. Z.; Tsuruoka, H.

    2012-04-01

    One major focus of the current Japanese earthquake prediction research program (2009-2013), which is now integrated with the research program for prediction of volcanic eruptions, is to move toward creating testable earthquake forecast models. For this purpose we started an experiment of forecasting earthquake activity in Japan under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) through an international collaboration. We established the CSEP Testing Centre, an infrastructure to encourage researchers to develop testable models for Japan, and to conduct verifiable prospective tests of their model performance. We started the 1st earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan within the CSEP framework. We use the earthquake catalogue maintained and provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The experiment consists of 12 categories, with 4 testing classes with different time spans (1 day, 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years) and 3 testing regions called "All Japan," "Mainland," and "Kanto." A total of 105 models were submitted, and are currently under the CSEP official suite of tests for evaluating the performance of forecasts. The experiments were completed for 92 rounds for 1-day, 6 rounds for 3-month, and 3 rounds for 1-year classes. For 1-day testing class all models passed all the CSEP's evaluation tests at more than 90% rounds. The results of the 3-month testing class also gave us new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. All models showed a good performance for magnitude forecasting. On the other hand, observation is hardly consistent in space distribution with most models when many earthquakes occurred at a spot. Now we prepare the 3-D forecasting experiment with a depth range of 0 to 100 km in Kanto region. The testing center is improving an evaluation system for 1-day class experiment to finish forecasting and testing results within one day. The special issue of 1st part titled Earthquake Forecast

  14. Analog VLSI Circuits for Short-Term Dynamic Synapses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shih-Chii

    2003-12-01

    Short-term dynamical synapses increase the computational power of neuronal networks. These synapses act as additional filters to the inputs of a neuron before the subsequent integration of these signals at its cell body. In this work, we describe a model of depressing and facilitating synapses derived from a hardware circuit implementation. This model is equivalent to theoretical models of short-term synaptic dynamics in network simulations. These circuits have been added to a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons. A cortical model of direction-selectivity that uses short-term dynamic synapses has been implemented with this network.

  15. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.

  16. Earthquake prediction rumors can help in building earthquake awareness: the case of May the 11th 2011 in Rome (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, A.; Arcoraci, L.; Casarotti, E.; Cultrera, G.; Di Stefano, R.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; May-11 Team

    2012-04-01

    Banner headlines in an Italian newspaper read on May 11, 2011: "Absence boom in offices: the urban legend in Rome become psychosis". This was the effect of a large-magnitude earthquake prediction in Rome for May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew up in Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment and this increased the earthquake prediction credibility. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, INGV decided to organize on May 11 (the same day the earthquake was predicted to happen) an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome to inform on the Italian seismicity and the earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, attended by about 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national TV's, press agencies and web news magazines. Hundreds of articles appeared in the following two days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. On May 11 the INGV headquarter was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors from 9am to 9pm: families, students, civil protection groups and many journalists. The program included conferences on a wide variety of subjects (from social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction) and distribution of books and brochures, in addition to several activities: meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues, visits to the seismic monitoring room (open 24h/7 all year), guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure. During the same day, thirteen new videos have also been posted on our youtube/INGVterremoti channel to explain the earthquake process and hazard, and to provide real time periodic updates on seismicity in Italy. On May 11 no large earthquake happened in Italy. The initiative, built up in few weeks, had a very large feedback

  17. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts using Doppler Lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magerman, Beth

    With a ground-based Doppler lidar on the upwind side of a wind farm in the Tehachapi Pass of California, radial wind velocity measurements were collected for repeating sector sweeps, scanning up to 10 kilometers away. This region consisted of complex terrain, with the scans made between mountains. The dataset was utilized for techniques being studied for short-term forecasting of wind power by correlating changes in energy content and of turbulence intensity by tracking spatial variance, in the wind ahead of a wind farm. A ramp event was also captured and its propagation was tracked. Orthogonal horizontal wind vectors were retrieved from the radial velocity using a sector Velocity Azimuth Display method. Streamlines were plotted to determine the potential sites for a correlation of upstream wind speed with wind speed at downstream locations near the wind farm. A "virtual wind turbine" was "placed" in locations along the streamline by using the time-series velocity data at the location as the input to a modeled wind turbine, to determine the extractable energy content at that location. The relationship between this time-dependent energy content upstream and near the wind farm was studied. By correlating the energy content with each upstream location based on a time shift estimated according to advection at the mean wind speed, several fits were evaluated. A prediction of the downstream energy content was produced by shifting the power output in time and applying the best-fit function. This method made predictions of the power near the wind farm several minutes in advance. Predictions were also made up to an hour in advance for a large ramp event. The Magnitude Absolute Error and Standard Deviation are presented for the predictions based on each selected upstream location.

  18. Stress Concentration Phenomenon Before the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake: its Implication for Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y. Q.; Xie, F. R.

    2014-12-01

    seismicity pattern, may provide some valuable information on the stages of stress accumulation, and thus may be used for estimation of earthquake risk. KEYWORDSSource Region, Stress Change, 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Earthquake Prediction.

  19. Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik, NW Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Can, Ceren Eda; Ergun, Gul; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2014-09-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes ( M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.

  20. Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik, NW Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Can, Ceren; Ergun, Gul; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2014-09-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.

  1. Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, Yannan; Hou, Zhangshuan; Meng, Da; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu

    2016-07-17

    In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

  2. Characterizing short-term stability for Boolean networks over any distribution of transfer functions

    DOE PAGES

    Seshadhri, C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; ...

    2016-07-05

    Here we present a characterization of short-term stability of random Boolean networks under arbitrary distributions of transfer functions. Given any distribution of transfer functions for a random Boolean network, we present a formula that decides whether short-term chaos (damage spreading) will happen. We provide a formal proof for this formula, and empirically show that its predictions are accurate. Previous work only works for special cases of balanced families. Finally, it has been observed that these characterizations fail for unbalanced families, yet such families are widespread in real biological networks.

  3. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    PubMed

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory.

  4. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Program Provisions § 62.21 Short-term scholars. (a) Introduction. These regulations govern scholars coming... programs, confer on common problems and projects, and promote professional relationships and communications... lecturing, observing, consulting, training, or demonstrating special skills at research...

  5. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  6. Business Students' Choice of Short-Term or Long-Term Study Abroad Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fitzsimmons, Stacey R.; Flanagan, David J.; Wang, Xiaodan

    2013-01-01

    Recent years have seen a proliferation of short-term study abroad opportunities. Although they are both supplementing and replacing semester-long study abroad programs, research has focused primarily on semester (long-term) programs. We draw on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explore factors that predict why students choose long-term and…

  7. Proximal Risk Factors for Short-Term Community Violence Among Adults With Mental Illnesses

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Kiersten L.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Grimm, Kevin J.; Tueller, Stephen J.; Swartz, Marvin S.; Van Dorn, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study examined the role of static indicators and proximal, clinically relevant indicators in the prediction of short-term community violence in a large, heterogeneous sample of adults with mental illnesses. Methods Data were pooled from five studies of adults with mental illnesses (N=4,484). Follow-up data were available for 2,579 participants. A hierarchical linear regression assessed the incremental validity of a series of variable clusters in the prediction of violence risk at six months: static characteristics (age, sex, race-ethnicity, and primary diagnosis), substance use (alcohol use and drug use at baseline), clinical functioning (psychiatric symptoms at baseline and recent hospitalization), recent violence, and recent victimization. Results Results demonstrated improved prediction with each step of the model, indicating that proximal indicators contributed to the prediction of short-term community violence above and beyond static characteristics. When all variables were entered, current alcohol use, recent violence, and recent victimization were positive predictors of subsequent violence, even after the analysis controlled for participant characteristics. Conclusions This study provides empirical evidence for three proximal, clinically relevant indicators in the assessment and management of short-term violence risk among adults with mental illnesses: current alcohol use, recent violence, and recent victimization. Consideration of these indicators in clinical practice may assist in the identification of adults with mental illnesses who are at heightened risk of short-term community violence. PMID:26927580

  8. Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, H. G.; Mukkamala, R.; Moody, G. B.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

  9. Encephalopathy and vestibulopathy following short-term hydrocarbon exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Hodgson, M.J.; Furman, J.; Ryan, C.; Durrant, J.; Kern, E.

    1989-01-01

    Dizziness, headaches, and weakness occurred among three men after short-term hydrocarbon exposure during improper welding procedures in a closed container. Symptoms were related to objective evidence of vestibular and cognitive dysfunction. Symptoms and abnormal test results persisted for 6 to 18 months. Simulation of the accident failed to demonstrate likely exposures except aliphatic hydrocarbons, well within the permissible exposure levels. Short-term exposures to neurotoxins may lead to long-term central nervous system abnormalities.

  10. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  11. Predicting Short-Term Remembering as Boundedly Optimal Strategy Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howes, Andrew; Duggan, Geoffrey B.; Kalidindi, Kiran; Tseng, Yuan-Chi; Lewis, Richard L.

    2016-01-01

    It is known that, on average, people adapt their choice of memory strategy to the subjective utility of interaction. What is not known is whether an individual's choices are "boundedly optimal." Two experiments are reported that test the hypothesis that an individual's decisions about the distribution of remembering between internal and…

  12. Imminent Suicide: The Illusion of Short-Term Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Robert I.

    2006-01-01

    The concept of imminent suicide is examined. A search of National Electronic Library for Mental Health, the Cochrane Library, PubMed, OVID and MD Consult databases was conducted using the terms "suicide, imminent." The term "imminent" frequently appears in the mental health literature, finding common usage among clinicians. It is also a legal term…

  13. Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

    2017-02-01

    Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the

  14. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    PubMed Central

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2014-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and interference in short-term memory in a task that rules out the use of rehearsal processes. In this article the authors present a series of studies using a novel paradigm to address this problem directly, by interrogating the operation of decay and interference in short-term memory without rehearsal confounds. The results of these studies indicate that short-term memories are subject to very small decay effects with the mere passage of time but that interference plays a much larger role in their degradation. The authors discuss the implications of these results for existing models of memory decay and interference. PMID:19271849

  15. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  16. Local short-term variability in solar irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.; Heinemann, Detlev

    2016-05-01

    Characterizing spatiotemporal irradiance variability is important for the successful grid integration of increasing numbers of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Using 1 Hz data recorded by as many as 99 pyranometers during the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE), we analyze field variability of clear-sky index k* (i.e., irradiance normalized to clear-sky conditions) and sub-minute k* increments (i.e., changes over specified intervals of time) for distances between tens of meters and about 10 km. By means of a simple classification scheme based on k* statistics, we identify overcast, clear, and mixed sky conditions, and demonstrate that the last of these is the most potentially problematic in terms of short-term PV power fluctuations. Under mixed conditions, the probability of relatively strong k* increments of ±0.5 is approximately twice as high compared to increment statistics computed without conditioning by sky type. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation structures of k* increment fields differ considerably between sky types. While the profiles for overcast and clear skies mostly resemble the predictions of a simple model published by , this is not the case for mixed conditions. As a proxy for the smoothing effects of distributed PV, we finally show that spatial averaging mitigates variability in k* less effectively than variability in k* increments, for a spatial sensor density of 2 km-2.

  17. Thermodynamics of short-term cell adhesion in vitro.

    PubMed Central

    Vogler, E A

    1988-01-01

    A thermodynamic theory of short-term (less than 2 hr) in vitro cell adhesion has been developed which allows calculation of reversible work of adhesion and estimation of a term proportional to cell-substrate contact area. The theory provides a means of determining a parameter related to membrane wetting tension for microscopic cells that does not require special manipulations which might desiccate or denature delicate cell membranes. Semiquantitative agreement between predicted and experimentally-measured cell adhesion obtained for three different cell types (MDCK, RBL-1, and HCT-15) in two different liquid phase compositions of surfactants (Tween-80 and fetal bovine serum) supports concepts and approximations utilized in development of theory. Cell-substrate contact areas were largest for wettable surfaces treated with ionizing corona or plasma discharges and smallest for hydrophobic materials for each cell type studied. Contact area for the continuous dog-kidney cell line MDCK was larger than that of either the leukemic blood cell RBL-1 or the anaplastic human colon cell HCT-15. PMID:3390519

  18. Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles

    1998-01-01

    One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

  19. Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Aki, K

    1996-04-30

    The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity.

  20. Selecting optimum groundwater monitoring stations for earthquake observation and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, H.; Woo, N. C.

    2011-12-01

    In Korea, the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN), consisted of a total of 327 stations around the country up to date, has been established and operated to monitor the background level and quality of ground water since 1995. From some of the monitoring wells, we identified abnormal changes in groundwater due to earthquakes. Then, this project was initiated with the following objectives: a) to identify and characterize groundwater changes due to earthquakes from the NGMN wells, and b) to suggest groundwater monitoring wells that can be used as supplementary monitoring stations for present seismic network. To accomplish the objectives, we need to identify previous responding history of each well to the other earthquakes, and the well's hydrogeological setting. Groundwater responses to earthquake events are identified as the direction of water-level movement (rise/fall), the amount of absolute changes, and the time for recovery to the previous level. Then, the distribution of responded wells is analyzed for their locations with GIS tools. Finally, statistical analyses perform to identify the optimum monitoring stations, considering geological features and hydrogeological settings of the stations and the earthquake epicenters. In this presentation, we report the results of up-to-date study as a part of the above-mentioned program.

  1. Scientific goals of the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thatcher, W.

    1988-01-01

    Several unique circumstances of the Parkfield experiment provide unprecedented opportunities for significant advances in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes. to our knowledge, there is no other seismic zone anywhere where the time, place, and magnitude of an impending earthquake are specified as precisely. Moreover, the epicentral region is located on continental crust, is readily accessible, and can support a range of dense monitoring networks that are sited either on or very close to the expected rupture surface. As a result, the networks located at Parkfield are several orders of magnitude more sensitive than any previously deployed for monitoring earthquake precursors (a preearthquake change in strain, seismicity, and other geophysical parameters). In this respect the design of the Parkfield experiment resembles the rationale for constructing a new, more powerful nuclear particle accelerator:in both cases increased capabilities will test existing theories, reveal new phenomena, and suggest new research directions. 

  2. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year. PMID:26812351

  3. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    PubMed

    Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  4. Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Sammis, C. G.; Sornette, D.

    2002-01-01

    We review the “critical point” concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called “finite-time singularities.” The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress. PMID:11875202

  5. Seismicity as a guide to global tectonics and earthquake prediction.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sykes, L. R.

    1972-01-01

    From seismicity studies, evidence is presented for several aspects of plate-tectonic theory, including ideas of sea-floor spreading, transform faulting and underthrusting of the lithosphere in island arcs. Recent advances in seismic instrumentation, the use of computers in earthquake location, and the installation of local networks of instruments are shown to have vastly increased the data available for seismicity studies. It is pointed out that most of the world's earthquakes are located in very narrow zones along active plate margins and are intimately related to global processes in an extremely coherent manner. Important areas of uncertainty calling for further studies are also pointed out.

  6. A Kinetic Model Unifying Presynaptic Short-Term Facilitation and Depression

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Chuang-Chung J.; Anton, Mihai; Poon, Chi-Sang; McRae, Gregory J.

    2009-01-01

    Short-term facilitation and depression refer to the increase and decrease of synaptic strength under repetitive stimuli within a timescale of milliseconds to seconds. This phenomenon has been attributed to primarily presynaptic mechanisms such as calcium-dependent transmitter release and presynaptic vesicle depletion. Previous modeling studies that aimed to integrate the complex short-term facilitation and short-term depression data derived from varying synapses have relied on computer simulation or abstract mathematical approaches. Here, we propose a unified theory of synaptic short-term plasticity based on realistic yet tractable and testable model descriptions of the underlying intracellular biochemical processes. Analysis of the model equations leads to a closed-form solution of the resonance frequency, a function of several critical biophysical parameters, as the single key indicator of the propensity for synaptic facilitation or depression under repetitive stimuli. This integrative model is supported by a broad range of transient and frequency response experimental data including those from facilitating, depressing or mixed-mode synapses. Specifically, the theory predicts that high calcium initial concentration and large gain of calcium action result in low resonance frequency and hence depressing behavior. In contrast, for synapses that are less sensitive to calcium or have higher recovery rate, resonance frequency becomes higher and thus facilitation prevails. The notion of resonance frequency therefore allows valuable quantitative parametric assessment of the contributions of various presynaptic mechanisms to the directionality of synaptic short-term plasticity. Thus, the model provides the reasons behind the switching behavior between facilitation and depression observed in experiments. New experiments are also suggested to control the short-term synaptic signal processing through adjusting the resonance frequency and bandwidth. PMID:19093195

  7. The Parkfield earthquake prediction of October 1992; the emergency services response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Andrews, R.

    1992-01-01

    The science of earthquake prediction is interesting and worthy of support. In many respects the ultimate payoff of earthquake prediction or earthquake forecasting is how the information can be used to enhance public safety and public preparedness. This is a particularly important issue here in California where we have such a high level of seismic risk historically, and currently, as a consequence of activity in 1989 in the San Francisco Bay Area, in Humboldt County in April of this year (1992), and in southern California in the Landers-Big Bear area in late June of this year (1992). We are currently very concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake, one or more, happening close to one of our metropolitan areas. Within that context, the Parkfield experiment becomes very important. 

  8. Language repetition and short-term memory: an integrative framework

    PubMed Central

    Majerus, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the non-word-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury. PMID:23874280

  9. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections. Second quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the first quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  10. Asymmetric features of short-term blood pressure variability.

    PubMed

    Guzik, Przemyslaw; Piskorski, Jaroslaw; Krauze, Tomasz; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Wykretowicz, Andrzej; Wysocki, Henryk

    2010-11-01

    Prolongations of cardiac cycles have a significantly larger contribution to short-term heart rate variability than shortenings--this is called heart rate asymmetry. Our aim is to establish the existence of blood pressure asymmetry phenomenon, which has not been done so far. We used 30-min resting continuous recordings of finger pressure waveforms from 227 healthy young volunteers (19-31 years old; 97 female), and performed Poincaré plot analysis of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to quantify the effect. Median contribution of SBP increases (C(i)) to short-term blood pressure variability was 52.8% (inter-quartile range: 50.9-55.1%) and median number of SBP increases (N(i)) was 48.8% (inter-quartile range: 47.2-50.1%). The C(i)>50% was found in 82% (P<0.0001; binomial test) and N(i)<50% in 75% (P<0.0001) of the subjects. Although SBP increases are significantly less abundant than reductions, their contribution to short-term blood pressure variability is significantly larger, which means that short-term blood pressure variability is asymmetric. SBP increases and reductions have unequal contribution to short-term blood pressure variability at supine rest in young healthy people. As this asymmetric behavior of blood pressure variability is present in most of the healthy studied people at rest, it can be concluded that blood pressure asymmetry is a physiological phenomenon.

  11. Impaired short-term memory for pitch in congenital amusia.

    PubMed

    Tillmann, Barbara; Lévêque, Yohana; Fornoni, Lesly; Albouy, Philippe; Caclin, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. The hypothesis is that the musical deficits arise from altered pitch processing, with impairments in pitch discrimination (i.e., pitch change detection, pitch direction discrimination and identification) and short-term memory. The present review article focuses on the deficit of short-term memory for pitch. Overall, the data discussed here suggest impairments at each level of processing in short-term memory tasks; starting with the encoding of the pitch information and the creation of the adequate memory trace, the retention of the pitch traces over time as well as the recollection and comparison of the stored information with newly incoming information. These impairments have been related to altered brain responses in a distributed fronto-temporal network, associated with decreased connectivity between these structures, as well as in abnormalities in the connectivity between the two auditory cortices. In contrast, amusic participants׳ short-term memory abilities for verbal material are preserved. These findings show that short-term memory deficits in congenital amusia are specific to pitch, suggesting a pitch-memory system that is, at least partly, separated from verbal memory. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory.

  12. Confirmed prediction of the 2 August 2007 MW 6.2 Nevelsk earthquake (Sakhalin Island, Russia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tikhonov, Ivan N.; Kim, Chun U.

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents the case history of an earthquake prediction, which was prepared by seismologists at the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences and submitted to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations later on. The prediction, described here briefly, was confirmed with the occurrence of the 2 August 2007 MW 6.2 Nevelsk earthquake. The first symptoms of the large seismic event were recognized as early as 1997, within the so-called "seismic gap of the first kind" (Mogi, 1985). This is the area where large earthquakes are possible but have been absent for at least 100 years, as outlined from historical data along the western coasts of the Sakhalin, Hokkaido and Honshu Islands. The symptoms were related to the incipient "seismic gap of the second kind," where shallow earthquakes with М ≥ 3.0 had disappeared. In December 2005, a long-term prediction of an earthquake with МS = 6.6 ± 0.6 was made when a "seismic gap of the second kind" (Mogi, 1985) became evident since the middle of 2003 in an area of 90 by 60 km. This prediction was to a large extent possible due to the local autonomous digital seismic network set up in 2001 in the southern region of Sakhalin Island. The prediction was accompanied by various anomalous phenomena in advance of the actual predicted event of 2 August 2007 that shocked the city of Nevelsk.

  13. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook.

  14. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  15. Earthquakes

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Information on this page will help you understand environmental dangers related to earthquakes, what you can do to prepare and recover. It will also help you recognize possible environmental hazards and learn what you can do to protect you and your family

  16. Packed Perturbers: Short-term Interactions Among Uranus’ Inner Moons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawson, Rebekah Ilene; French, R. G.; Showalter, M. R.

    2010-05-01

    Packed within 2-3 radii of Urarnus are thirteen tiny moons. Because of their close spacing, these satellites exert strong mutual perturbations, an unstable configuration in many ways analogous to planetesimals packed in proto-planetary disks. With Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations, Showalter and Lissauer (2006) discovered significant orbital changes since Voyager 2 observed the system (Jacobson 1998), signatures of the instability revealed in long-term numerical integrations by Duncan and Lissauer (1997), which predicted collisions in 4-100 million years. Previously, we reported pairs of moons near first-order mean motion resonances -- Bianca and Cressida, (16:15), Cressida and Desdemona (47:46), Desdemona and Portia (13:12), Perdita and Belinda (44:43), Belinda and Cupid (58:57) -- and results of short timescale integrations demonstrating close coupling of the satellites’ orbital variations (Dawson, French, and Showalter, DDA Meeting #40, #6.04). To further probe the moons’ mutual perturbations and chaotic orbital changes, we integrate subsets of satellites using a range of assumed masses. To assess the variation of the orbital elements and behavior of resonant arguments, we transform integrated state vectors to geometric elements, which account for the oblateness of Uranus - significant for moons so close to Uranus - and avoid erroneous short-term oscillations induced by oblateness in the osculating elements (Renner and Sicardy 2006). We link librations of Cressida and Desdemona to orbital changes in neighboring satellites Bianca and Portia. We also find the system's behavior is very sensitive to assumed masses, allowing us to assess the consistency of masses estimated from photometrically volumes (Karkoschka 2001), uncertain by a factor of 2-3, with observed orbital changes. In future work, we will combine our analysis with astrometry from a high quality set of observations to better constrain the moons’ masses. See abstract by Showalter et al

  17. Decade Plan (2010-2020) for the Study on Earthquake Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities in China (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Z.; Liu, G.; Ma, H.; Jiang, C.; Zhou, L.; Shao, Z.; Wu, Y.; Yan, R.; Yan, W.; Li, Y.; Peng, H.

    2009-12-01

    Since the beginning of 2009, the Department for Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction of China Earthquake Administration (CEA) has been organizing the planning for the study on earthquake predictability for the period 2010-2020. Invited by the organizers of this session, this presentation briefly introduces the planning works, the strategies for the planning, and the research priorities proposed in the plan. Lessons and experiences of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake play an important role in such planning. In China, ‘earthquake forecast/prediction’ is used in a broader sense, from seismic hazard analysis considering very long time scales, to long-term earthquake forecast with decade time scales, further to intermediate-term forecast mainly with annual time scale, and to short and imminent-term earthquake prediction - the ‘earthquake prediction’ traditionally understood, and at last to the estimation of the type of earthquake sequence and the probability of strong aftershocks. ‘Study on earthquake predictability’ in China also has a broader sense, from seismo-tectonics to the physics of earthquakes. Making full use of the present knowledge of earthquake predictability to serve the reduction of earthquake disasters is one of the methodologies of Chinese seismological agency. The concept ‘monitoring and modeling for prediction’ plays an important role in considering the objectives of the planned R&D activities. Since recent years there has been a fast development of observation facilities in China. How to make full use of the observational data produced by these facilities is one of the key issues for the next decade. Chinese continent has different units of seismo-tectonics, with different characteristics of seismicity and different needs from the society for the reduction of earthquake disasters. Deployment of technologies to deal with this tectonic and seismic diversity is another key-issue in the planning. Continental China, where the public has

  18. Predictability of Great Earthquakes: The 25 April 2015 M7.9 Gorkha (Nepal)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding of seismic process in terms of non-linear dynamics of a hierarchical system of blocks-and-faults and deterministic chaos, has already led to reproducible intermediate-term middle-range prediction of the great and significant earthquakes. The technique based on monitoring charcteristics of seismic static in an area proportional to source size of incipient earthquake is confirmed at the confidence level above 99% by statistics of Global Testing in forward application from 1992 to the present. The semi-annual predictions determined for the next half-year by the algorithm M8 aimed (i) at magnitude 8+ earthquakes in 262 circles of investigation, CI's, each of 667-km radius and (ii) at magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes in 180 CI's, each of 427-km radius are communicated each January and July to the Global Test Observers (about 150 today). The pre-fixed location of CI's cover all seismic regions where the M8 algorithm could run in its original version that requires annual rate of activity of 16 or more main shocks. According to predictions released in January 2015 for the first half of 2015, the 25 April 2015 Nepal MwGCMT = 7.9 earthquake falls outside the Test area for M7.5+, while its epicenter is within the accuracy limits of the alarm area for M8.0+ that spread along 1300 km of Himalayas. We note that (i) the earthquake confirms identification of areas prone to strong earthquakes in Himalayas by pattern recognition (Bhatia et al. 1992) and (ii) it would have been predicted by the modified version of the M8 algorithm aimed at M7.5+. The modified version is adjusted to a low level of earthquake detection, about 10 main shocks per year, and is tested successfully by Mojarab et al. (2015) in application to the recent earthquakes in Eastern Anatolia (23 October 2011, M7.3 Van earthquake) and Iranian Plateau (16 April 2013, M7.7 Saravan and the 24 September 2013, M7.7 Awaran earthquakes).

  19. Prosodic Similarity Effects in Short-Term Memory in Developmental Dyslexia.

    PubMed

    Goswami, Usha; Barnes, Lisa; Mead, Natasha; Power, Alan James; Leong, Victoria

    2016-11-01

    Children with developmental dyslexia are characterized by phonological difficulties across languages. Classically, this 'phonological deficit' in dyslexia has been investigated with tasks using single-syllable words. Recently, however, several studies have demonstrated difficulties in prosodic awareness in dyslexia. Potential prosodic effects in short-term memory have not yet been investigated. Here we create a new instrument based on three-syllable words that vary in stress patterns, to investigate whether prosodic similarity (the same prosodic pattern of stressed and unstressed syllables) exerts systematic effects on short-term memory. We study participants with dyslexia and age-matched and younger reading-level-matched typically developing controls. We find that all participants, including dyslexic participants, show prosodic similarity effects in short-term memory. All participants exhibited better retention of words that differed in prosodic structure, although participants with dyslexia recalled fewer words accurately overall compared to age-matched controls. Individual differences in prosodic memory were predicted by earlier vocabulary abilities, by earlier sensitivity to syllable stress and by earlier phonological awareness. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of prosodic similarity effects in short-term memory. The implications of a prosodic similarity effect for theories of lexical representation and of dyslexia are discussed. © 2016 The Authors. Dyslexia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Children's arithmetical difficulties: contributions from processing speed, item identification, and short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Bull, R; Johnston, R S

    1997-04-01

    Children's arithmetical difficulties are often explained in terms of a short-term memory deficit. However, the underlying cause of this memory deficit is unclear, with some researchers suggesting a slow articulation rate and hence increased decay of information during recall, while others offer an explanation in terms of slow speed of item identification, indicating difficulty in retrieving information stored in long-term memory. General processing speed is also related to measures of short-term memory but has rarely been assessed in studies of children's arithmetic. Measures of short-term memory, processing speed, sequencing ability, and retrieval of information from long-term memory were therefore given to 7-year-old children. When reading ability was controlled for, arithmetic ability was best predicted by processing speed, with short-term memory accounting for no further unique variance. It was concluded that children with arithmetic difficulties have problems specifically in automating basic arithmetic facts which may stem from a general speed of processing deficit.

  1. An Update on the Activities of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liukis, M.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Werner, M. J.; Jordan, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecast experiments. There are now CSEP testing centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Europe, and 364 models are under evaluation. In this presentation, we describe how the testing center hosted by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has evolved to meet CSEP objectives and share our experiences in operating the center. The SCEC testing center has been operational since September 1, 2007, and currently hosts 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the western Pacific, and a global testing region. We are currently working to reduce testing latency and to develop procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a Department of Homeland Security project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss how we apply CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and the evaluation of ShakeAlert system for earthquake early warning (EEW), and how CSEP procedures are being adopted for intensity prediction and ground motion prediction experiments. cseptesting.org

  2. Prediction of long-period ground motions from huge subduction earthquakes in Osaka, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawabe, H.; Kamae, K.

    2008-04-01

    There is a high possibility of reoccurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes along the Nankai Trough in Japan. It is very important to predict the long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.1 and 8.4, respectively, to mitigate their disastrous effects. In this study, long-period (>2.5 s) ground motions were predicted using an earthquake scenario proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Japan. The calculations were performed using a fourth-order finite difference method with a variable spacing staggered-grid in the frequency range 0.05 0.4 Hz. The attenuation characteristics ( Q) in the finite difference simulations were assumed to be proportional to frequency ( f) and S-wave velocity ( V s) represented by Q = f · V s / 2. Such optimum attenuation characteristic for the sedimentary layers in the Osaka basin was obtained empirically by comparing the observed motions during the actual M5.5 event with the modeling results. We used the velocity structure model of the Osaka basin consisting of three sedimentary layers on bedrock. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes depend significantly on the complex thickness distribution of the sediments inside the basin. The duration of the predicted long-period ground motions in the city of Osaka is more than 4 min, and the largest peak ground velocities (PGVs) exceed 80 cm/s. The predominant period is 5 to 6 s. These preliminary results indicate the possibility of earthquake damage because of future subduction earthquakes in large-scale constructions such as tall buildings, long-span bridges, and oil storage tanks in the Osaka area.

  3. The Precategorical Nature of Visual Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinlan, Philip T.; Cohen, Dale J.

    2016-01-01

    We conducted a series of recognition experiments that assessed whether visual short-term memory (VSTM) is sensitive to shared category membership of to-be-remembered (tbr) images of common objects. In Experiment 1 some of the tbr items shared the same basic level category (e.g., hand axe): Such items were no better retained than others. In the…

  4. Short-Term Effects of Televised Aggression on Children's Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebert, Robert M.; Baron, Robert A.

    Recently collected data appear to warrant advancing some tentative conslusions concerning the short-term effects of violence in television on children: 1) children are exposed to a substantial amount of violent content on television, and they can remember and learn from such exposure; 2) correlational studies have disclosed a regular association…

  5. Validation of a Fish Short-term Reproduction Assay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Fish Short-term Reproduction Assay is an in vivo assay conducted with fathead minnows and is designed to detect changes in spawning, gross morphology, histopathology, and specific biochemical endpoints that reflect disturbances in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis...

  6. 47 CFR 74.24 - Short-term operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... in subparts D, E, F and H of this part, except wireless video assist devices, may be operated on a... notification provision shall not apply where an unanticipated need for immediate short-term mobile station... guidelines, which will be provided by Cornell University. In addition, the applicant shall indicate in...

  7. End Anchoring in Short-Term Order Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farrell, Simon; Lelievre, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Temporally grouping lists has systematic effects on immediate serial recall accuracy, order errors, and recall latencies, and is generally taken to reflect the use of multiple dimensions of ordering in short-term memory. It has been argued that these representations are fully relative, in that all sequence positions are anchored to both the start…

  8. Climax spent fuel dosimetry. Short term exposure, 8 March 1983

    SciTech Connect

    Quam, W.; DeVore, T.

    1984-06-01

    The second short-term exposure (performed 8 March 1983) in Hole CFH3 at the Climax Spent Fuel Test site is described. These short-term (1 hour long) exposures are intended to provide an independent measurement of the exposure rate at the wall and the 0.51-m and 0.66-m locations. Only CaF{sub 2} TLD`s were used in the second short-term exposure. Harshaw chips were cut to 0.32 x 0.18 x 0.09 cm size and aged by several exposure/readout/bakeout cycles until all odd chips were weeded out and the remaining chips exhibited stable sensitivities. Exposure at Climax was done by removing the existing long-term dosimetry strings and inserting identical strings using the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s in the stainless steel holders. The first short-term exposure produced absorbed doses as high as {similar_to}000 rads-LiF. The linearity corrections determined for the CaF{sub 2} TLD`s at these exposure levels were {similar_to}2%. The present post-exposure calibration method used calibration doses very close to those encountered in the field.

  9. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  10. Short-term storage of Atlantic sturgeon spermatozoa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There is significant interest to restore the Atlantic sturgeon, a species of concern. Biologists are interested in both the short-term storage and cryopreservation of semen to maximize availability of viable spermatozoa whenever a rare ripe female is found and available for spawning. We conducted sh...

  11. The Role of Short-Term Memory in Operator Workload

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-04-01

    Baddeley, 1966; 1984), simultaneous digit processing ( Klapp and Philipoff, 1983), simultaneous, irrelevant articulation (articulatory suppression...Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 1, 153-161. Klapp , S.T. and Philipoff, A., 1983, Short term memory limits in performance. Turning the tide of

  12. Regularization in Short-Term Memory for Serial Order

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Botvinick, Matthew; Bylsma, Lauren M.

    2005-01-01

    Previous research has shown that short-term memory for serial order can be influenced by background knowledge concerning regularities of sequential structure. Specifically, it has been shown that recall is superior for sequences that fit well with familiar sequencing constraints. The authors report a corresponding effect pertaining to serial…

  13. Assurance of Learning in Short-Term, Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, Mary L.; Gullekson, Nicole L.; McCambridge, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Business students are increasingly seeking international experience in short-term, study abroad programs to enhance their intercultural knowledge, intercultural communication skills, and global perspectives to be more competitive in the global arena. Intuitively, universities initiating these programs and the students sojourning abroad believe in…

  14. Short-Term International Experiences and Teacher Language Awareness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harbon, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    This research study had as its focus the impact of a short-term international experience on teacher language awareness (TLA). In-country intensive immersion experiences were considered beneficial for language teacher professional development. This project examined the Australian teachers' perceptions of their teaching and home-stay experiences…

  15. Short-term storage options for fresh-market onions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sweet onions have proven to be an excellent spring specialty crop in southeastern Oklahoma. Growers are interested in fuel-efficient methods of short term storage (up to 6 months) to lengthen market windows and enhance returns. Onions were seeded in high tunnels in November of 2005, transplanted to...

  16. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, second quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The forecasts in this issue cover the second quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Changes to macroeconomic measures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis have been incorporated into the STIFS model used.

  17. Short-term energy outlook, Quarterly projections. Third quarter 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1993-08-04

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

  18. SHORT-TERM MEMORY IS INDEPENDENT OF BRAIN PROTEIN SYNTHESIS

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, Hasker P.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Jones, Oliver W.

    1980-09-01

    Male Swiss albino CD-1 mice given a single injection of a cerebral protein synthesis inhibitor, anisomycin (ANI) (1 mg/animal), 20 min prior to single trial passive avoidance training demonstrated impaired retention at tests given 3 hr, 6 hr, 1 day, and 7 days after training. Retention was not significantly different from saline controls when tests were given 0.5 or 1.5 hr after training. Prolonging inhibition of brain protein synthesis by giving either 1 or 2 additional injections of ANI 2 or 2 and 4 hr after training did not prolong short-term retention performance. The temporal development of impaired retention in ANI treated mice could not be accounted for by drug dosage, duration of protein synthesis inhibition, or nonspecific sickness at test. In contrast to the suggestion that protein synthesis inhibition prolongs short-term memory (Quinton, 1978), the results of this experiment indicate that short-term memory is not prolonged by antibiotic drugs that inhibit cerebral protein synthesis. All evidence seems consistent with the hypothesis that short-term memory is protein synthesis independent and that the establishment of long-term memory depends upon protein synthesis during or shortly after training. Evidence for a role of protein synthesis in memory maintenance is discussed.

  19. A DAPHNIA MAGNA SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL AND GROWTH TEST

    EPA Science Inventory

    With the change in acceptable test temperatures for invertebrate toxicity tests from <20oC to 25oC, it is now possible to use Daphnia magna for short-term chronic testing. When cultured at 25oC the dry weight of <24 hr old D. magna ranges from 7 to 15 g depending upon nutrition,...

  20. Selenium deficiency, reversible cardiomyopathy and short-term intravenous feeding.

    PubMed Central

    Levy, J. B.; Jones, H. W.; Gordon, A. C.

    1994-01-01

    We report the case of a patient with Crohn's disease receiving short-term postoperative parenteral nutrition supplemented with trace elements who nevertheless became selenium deficient with evidence of a cardiomyopathy. This was fully reversible with oral selenium supplementation. Current parenteral feeding regimes may not contain enough selenium for malnourished patients. PMID:8183763

  1. Exogenous Attention Influences Visual Short-Term Memory in Infants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ross-Sheehy, Shannon; Oakes, Lisa M.; Luck, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    Two experiments examined the hypothesis that developing visual attentional mechanisms influence infants' Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) in the context of multiple items. Five- and 10-month-old infants (N = 76) received a change detection task in which arrays of three differently colored squares appeared and disappeared. On each trial one square…

  2. Short-Term Therapy: A Shift in Thinking.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fuhriman, Addie

    1992-01-01

    Responds to previous article by Steenbarger on science-practice integration in brief counseling and therapy. Considers three dimensions that emerge from the integrated analysis presented in Steenbarger's article: catalysis, involvement, and time. Discusses each of these three characteristics as they are related specifically to a short-term format.…

  3. Pigeon visual short-term memory directly compared to primates.

    PubMed

    Wright, Anthony A; Elmore, L Caitlin

    2016-02-01

    Three pigeons were trained to remember arrays of 2-6 colored squares and detect which of two squares had changed color to test their visual short-term memory. Procedures (e.g., stimuli, displays, viewing times, delays) were similar to those used to test monkeys and humans. Following extensive training, pigeons performed slightly better than similarly trained monkeys, but both animal species were considerably less accurate than humans with the same array sizes (2, 4 and 6 items). Pigeons and monkeys showed calculated memory capacities of one item or less, whereas humans showed a memory capacity of 2.5 items. Despite the differences in calculated memory capacities, the pigeons' memory results, like those from monkeys and humans, were all well characterized by an inverse power-law function fit to d' values for the five display sizes. This characterization provides a simple, straightforward summary of the fundamental processing of visual short-term memory (how visual short-term memory declines with memory load) that emphasizes species similarities based upon similar functional relationships. By closely matching pigeon testing parameters to those of monkeys and humans, these similar functional relationships suggest similar underlying processes of visual short-term memory in pigeons, monkeys and humans.

  4. Writing Better Goals and Short-Term Objectives or Benchmarks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lignugaris/Kraft, Benjamin; Marchand-Martella, Nancy; Martella, Ronald C.

    2001-01-01

    This article provides strategies for writing precise goals and short-term objectives or benchmarks as part of individualized education programs (IEPs). Guidelines and examples address: definitions, reasons for clarity and precision, individual parts of goals and objectives, inclusion of time factors in objectives and benchmarks, number of…

  5. Visual Short-Term Memory During Smooth Pursuit Eye Movements

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerzel, Dirk; Ziegler, Nathalie E.

    2005-01-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) was probed while observers performed smooth pursuit eye movements. Smooth pursuit keeps a moving object stabilized in the fovea. VSTM capacity for position was reduced during smooth pursuit compared with a condition with eye fixation. There was no difference between a condition in which the items were approximately…

  6. 77 FR 61229 - Short-Term Investment Funds

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-09

    ... resilience of STIFs to credit and liquidity events while not unduly restricting a bank's ability to invest... liquidity or valuation stress. \\29\\ See Interagency Policy on Banks/Thrifts Providing Financial Support to... revises the requirements imposed on national banks pursuant to the OCC's short-term investment fund...

  7. CONTROLLED, SHORT-TERM DERMAL AND INHALATION EXPOSURE TO CHLOROFORM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies were conducted to determine the uptake by humans of chloroform as a result of controlled short-term dermal and inhalation exposures. The approach used continuous real-time breath analysis to determine exhaled-breath profiles and evaluate chloroform kinetics in the huma...

  8. A SHORT-TERM TERMINAL COURSE FOR POTENTIAL DROPOUTS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    CANGEMI, JOSEPH P.

    STUDENTS IDENTIFIED AS "HARD-CORE" FUTURE DROPOUTS BY COUNSELORS, TEACHERS, AND SCHOOL ADMINISTRATORS SHOULD BE GROUPED TOGETHER FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, SHORT-TERM COURSE. SOME OF THE REALISTIC OBJECTIVES OF A TERMINAL PROGRAM FOR POTENTIAL DROPOUTS ARE--TO PREPARE STUDENTS WHO ARE DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL FOR IMMEDIATE EMPLOYMENT, TO…

  9. Emotive-reconstruction psychotherapy: a short-term cognitive approach.

    PubMed

    Morrison, J K; Cometa, M S

    1977-04-01

    Emotive-Reconstructive Therapy, a recently developed therapeutic modality deriving from cognitive theory, may be a promising short-term approach to psychopathology. Combining the use of imagery with selective hyperventilation, a therapist induces patients to reexperience past events, and subsequently to radically reconstrue themselves and significant others in a personally satisfying direction.

  10. Enhanced Visual Short-Term Memory for Angry Faces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Margaret C.; Wu, Chia-Yun; Linden, David E. J.; Raymond, Jane E.

    2009-01-01

    Although some views of face perception posit independent processing of face identity and expression, recent studies suggest interactive processing of these 2 domains. The authors examined expression-identity interactions in visual short-term memory (VSTM) by assessing recognition performance in a VSTM task in which face identity was relevant and…

  11. Short-Term Effects of Playing Computer Games on Attention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tahiroglu, Aysegul Yolga; Celik, Gonca Gul; Avci, Ayse; Seydaoglu, Gulsah; Uzel, Mehtap; Altunbas, Handan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term cognitive effects of computer games in children with different psychiatric disorders and normal controls. Method: One hundred one children are recruited for the study (aged between 9 and 12 years). All participants played a motor-racing game on the computer for 1 hour.…

  12. Numerical Shake Prediction for Earthquake Early Warning: More Precise and Rapid Prediction even for Deviated Distribution of Ground Shaking of M6-class Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Ogiso, M.

    2015-12-01

    In many methods of the present EEW systems, hypocenter and magnitude are determined quickly, and then the strengths of ground motions are predicted using the hypocentral distance and magnitude based on a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), which usually leads the prediction of concentric distribution. However, actual ground shaking is not always concentric, even when site amplification is corrected. At a common site, the strengths of shaking may be much different among earthquakes even when their hypocentral distances and magnitudes are almost the same. For some cases, PGA differs more than 10 times, which leads to imprecise prediction in EEW. Recently, Numerical Shake Prediction method was proposed (Hoshiba and Aoki, 2015), in which the present ongoing wavefield of ground shaking is estimated using data assimilation technique, and then future wavefield is predicted based on physics of wave propagation. Information of hypocentral location and magnitude is not required in this method. Because future is predicted from the present condition, it is possible to address the issue of the non-concentric distribution. Once the deviated distribution is actually observed in ongoing wavefield, future distribution is predicted accordingly to be non-concentric. We will indicate examples of M6-class earthquakes occurred at central Japan, in which strengths of shaking were observed to non-concentrically distribute. We will show their predictions using Numerical Shake Prediction method. The deviated distribution may be explained by inhomogeneous distribution of attenuation. Even without attenuation structure, it is possible to address the issue of non-concentric distribution to some extent once the deviated distribution is actually observed in ongoing wavefield. If attenuation structure is introduced, we can predict it before actual observation. The information of attenuation structure leads to more precise and rapid prediction in Numerical Shake Prediction method for EEW.

  13. Analysis of Italian Earthquake catalogs in the context of intermediate-term prediction problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romashkova, Leontina; Peresan, Antonella

    2013-06-01

    We perform a comparative analysis of regional and global earthquake catalogs currently available for the territory of Italy. We consider: (a) instrumental seismic catalogs provided by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma (INGV) for earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); (b) Global Hypocenters' Data provided by the USGS/NEIC, which is currently used in the real-time earthquake prediction experiment by CN and M8S algorithms in Italy, and (c) seismological Bulletin provided by the International Seismological Centre (ISC). We discuss advantages and shortcomings of these catalogs in the context of intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction problem in Italy, including the possibility of the catalog's combined or integrated use. Magnitude errors in the catalog can distort statistics of success-to-failure scoring and eventually falsify testing results. Therefore, the analysis of systematic and random errors in magnitude presented in Appendixes can be of significance in its own right.

  14. Can an earthquake prediction and warning system be developed?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    N.N, Ambraseys

    1990-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, natural disasters have killed nearly 3 million people and disrupted the lives of over 800 million others. In 2 years there were more than 50 serious natural disasters, including landslides in Italy, France, and Colombia; a typhoon in Korea; wildfires in China and the United States; a windstorm in England; grasshopper plagues in Africa's horn and the Sahel; tornadoes in Canada; devastating earthquakes in Soviet Armenia and Tadzhikstand; infestations in Africa; landslides in Brazil; and tornadoes in the United States 

  15. Recent Developments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecast experiments. There are now CSEP testing centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Europe, with 430 models under evaluation. In this presentation, we describe how the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) testing center has evolved to meet CSEP objectives and we share our experiences in operating the center. The SCEC testing center has been operational since September 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and a global testing region. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts and currently develop procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a Department of Homeland Security project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. Retrospective experiment for the 2010 Darfield earthquake sequence formed an important addition to the CSEP activities where the predictive skills of physics-based and statistical forecasting models are compared. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and the evaluation of ShakeAlert system for earthquake early warning (EEW), and how CSEP procedures are being adopted for intensity prediction and ground motion prediction experiments.

  16. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  17. Bayesian prediction of earthquake network based on space-time influence domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ya; Zhao, Hai; He, Xuan; Pei, Fan-Dong; Li, Guang-Guang

    2016-03-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the conditional dependencies among different events, which are expressed by conditional probability. Scientists have already investigated the seismic activities by using BNs. Recently, earthquake network is used as a novel methodology to analyze the relationships among the earthquake events. In this paper, we propose a way to predict earthquake from a new perspective. The BN is constructed after processing, which is derived from the earthquake network based on space-time influence domain. And then, the BN parameters are learnt by using the cases which are designed from the seismic data in the period between 00:00:00 on January 1, 1992 and 00:00:00 on January 1, 2012. At last, predictions are done for the data in the period between 00:00:00 on January 1, 2012 and 00:00:00 on January 1, 2015 combining the BN with the parameters. The results show that the success rate of the prediction including delayed prediction is about 65%. It is also discovered that the predictions for some nodes have high rate of accuracy under investigation.

  18. Strong ground motion prediction for southwestern China from small earthquake records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Z. R.; Tao, X. X.; Cui, A. P.

    2015-09-01

    For regions lack of strong ground motion records, a method is developed to predict strong ground motion by small earthquake records from local broadband digital earthquake networks. Sichuan and Yunnan regions, located in southwestern China, are selected as the targets. Five regional source and crustal medium parameters are inversed by micro-Genetic Algorithm. These parameters are adopted to predict strong ground motion for moment magnitude (Mw) 5.0, 6.0 and 7.0. Strong ground motion data are compared with the results, most of the result pass through ideally the data point plexus, except the case of Mw 7.0 in Sichuan region, which shows an obvious slow attenuation. For further application, this result is adopted in probability seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and near-field strong ground motion synthesis of the Wenchuan Earthquake.

  19. Predicted liquefaction of East Bay fills during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Blair, J.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M ??? 7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  20. How to predict Italy L'Aquila M6.3 earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Guangmeng

    2016-04-01

    According to the satellite cloud anomaly appeared over eastern Italy on 21-23 April 2012, we predicted the M6.0 quake occurred in north Italy successfully. Here checked the satellite images in 2011-2013 in Italy, and 21 cloud anomalies were found. Their possible correlation with earthquakes bigger than M4.7 which located in Italy main fault systems was statistically examined by assuming various lead times. The result shows that when the leading time interval is set to 23≤ΔT≤45 days, 8 of the 10 quakes were preceded by cloud anomalies. Poisson random test shows that AAR (anomaly appearance rate) and EOR (EQ occurrence rate) is much higher than the values by chance. This study proved the relation between cloud anomaly and earthquake in Italy. With this method, we found that L'Aquila earthquake can also be predicted according to cloud anomaly.

  1. Did the November 17, 2009 Queen Charlotte Island (QCI) earthquake fill a predicted seismic gap?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasudevan, K.; Eaton, D. W.; Iverson, A.

    2010-12-01

    Seismicity in the Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) zone occurs along the transform boundary between the Pacific and North American lithospheric plates and is the region where the largest recorded earthquake in Canada (Ms = 8.1) occurred, on August 22, 1949. Right-lateral relative motion across the QCF, in conjunction with minor convergence, has been suggested to play a role in the source characteristics of earthquakes in this region. A segment of the QCF between the inferred rupture zone of the 1949 earthquake and that of a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in 1970 has been identified as seismic gap that, if fully ruptured, is capable of producing a M ~ 7 earthquake. On November 17, 2009 a Mw 6.6 earthquake occurred within this seismicity gap and was well recorded by regional seismograph stations in Canada and the U.S., including three recently installed temporary broadband seismograph stations in northern Alberta. The distribution of aftershocks from the 2009 earthquake, as well as maps of calculated Coulomb stresses from the previous events, are compatible with the seismic gap hypothesis. In addition, we have computed a seismic moment tensor for this event by least-squares waveform fitting, primarily surface waves, which shows a predominantly strike-slip focal mechanism. Our integrated results of source parameters and Coulomb failure stress changes provide the first direct confirmation that the 2009 event occurred within the predicted seismic gap between the 1949 and 1970 earthquakes. This evidence is important for hazard assessment in this region where offshore oil and gas drilling has been proposed.

  2. Prognostic Value of Stress Echocardiography in Patients With Low-Intermediate or High Short-Term (10 Years) Versus Low (<39%) or High (≥39%) Lifetime Predicted Risk of Cardiovascular Disease According to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 Cardiovascular Risk Calculator.

    PubMed

    Yao, Siu-Sun; Supariwala, Azhar; Yao, Amanda; Dukkipati, Sai Sreenija; Wyne, Jamshad; Chaudhry, Farooq A

    2015-09-01

    This study evaluates the prognostic value of stress echocardiography (Secho) in short-term (10 years) and lifetime atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk-defined groups according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association 2013 cardiovascular risk calculator. The ideal risk assessment and management of patients with low-to-intermediate or high short-term versus low (<39%) or high (≥39%) lifetime CV risk is unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Secho in short-term and lifetime CV risk-defined groups. We evaluated 4,566 patients (60 ± 13 years; 46% men) who underwent Secho (41% treadmill and 59% dobutamine) with low-intermediate short-term (<20%) risk divided into low (<39%, n = 368) or high (≥39%, n = 661) lifetime CV risk and third group with high short-term risk (≥20%, n = 3,537). Follow-up (3.2 ± 1.5 years) for nonfatal myocardial infarction (n = 102) and cardiac death (n = 140) were obtained. By univariate analysis, age (p <0.001) and ≥3 new ischemic wall motion abnormalities (WMAs, p <0.001) were significant predictors of cardiac events. Cumulative survival in patients was significantly worse in patients with ≥3 WMA versus <3 WMA in low-intermediate short-term and low (3.3% vs 0.3% per year, p <0.001) or high (2.0% vs 0% per year, p <0.001) lifetime risk and also in those with high short-term CV risk group (3.5% vs 1.0% per year, p <0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis identified ≥3 new ischemic WMAs as the strongest predictor of cardiac events (hazard ratio 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.3 to 3.9, p <0.001). In conclusion, Secho results (absence or presence of ≥3 new ischemic segments) can further refine risk assessment in patients with low-intermediate or high short-term versus low or high lifetime cardiovascular risk. Event rate with normal Secho is low (≤1% per year) but higher in patients with high short-term CV risk by the American College of

  3. Selectivity of seismic electric signal (SES) of the 2000 Izu earthquake swarm: a 3D FEM numerical simulation model.

    PubMed

    Huang, Qinghua; Lin, Yufeng

    2010-01-01

    Although seismic electric signal (SES) has been used for short-term prediction of earthquakes, selectivity of SES still remains as one of the mysterious features. As a case study, we made a numerical simulation based on a 3D finite element method (FEM) on the selectivity of SES observed in the case of the 2000 Izu earthquake swarm. Our numerical results indicated that the existence of conductive channel under Niijima island could explain the reported SES selectivity.

  4. Item repetition in short-term memory: Ranschburg repeated.

    PubMed

    Henson, R N

    1998-09-01

    In serial recall from short-term memory, repeated items are recalled well when close together (repetition facilitation), but not when far apart (repetition inhibition; the Ranschburg effect). These effects were re-examined with a new scoring scheme that addresses the possibility that repetitions are distinct tokens in memory. Repetition facilitation and repetition inhibition proved robust, and were shown to interact with the temporal grouping of items (Experiment 1), which affected the probability of detecting repetition (Experiments 2A and 2B). It is argued that detection of a repetition is necessary for repetition facilitation, attributable to the tagging of immediate repetition, whereas the failure to detect or remember a repetition results in repetition inhibition, attributable to an automatic suppression of previous responses and a bias against guessing repeated items (Experiment 3). The findings are discussed in relation to models of short-term memory and the phenomenon of repetition blindness.

  5. Effects of sleep deprivation on short-term recognition memory.

    PubMed

    Polzella, D J

    1975-03-01

    A probe-recognition short-term memory paradigm was used to inquire into the precise effects of sleep deprivation on human memory. It was found that recognition performance, as measured by d', was generally impaired for each subjects after 24 hr of sleep deprivation. While d' was shown to decrease exponentially as the number of items intervening between the target and the probe increased, this decay rate was not affected by sleep loss. In addition there was confirmation of a previously observed increase in the positive skewness of reaction times after wakefulness. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that sleep deprivation increases the occurrence of lapses, periods of lowered reactive capacity, which prevent the encoding of items in short-term memory.

  6. The psychotomimetic effects of short-term sensory deprivation.

    PubMed

    Mason, Oliver J; Brady, Francesca

    2009-10-01

    People experiencing sensory deprivation often report perceptual disturbances such as hallucinations, especially over extended periods of time. However, there is little evidence concerning short-term sensory deprivation and whether its effects differ depending on the individual concerned, and in particular their proneness to psychosis. This study explored whether perceptual disturbances could be elicited by a brief period of complete isolation from sound and vision in both highly hallucination prone and nonhallucination prone groups. Greater psychotomimetic experiences taking the form of perceptual disturbances, paranoia, and anhedonia were found across both groups when under sensory deprivation. In addition, hallucination-prone individuals experienced more perceptual disturbances when placed in short-term sensory deprivation than nonprone individuals. This result is discussed in terms of difficulties in source monitoring as a possible mechanism involved in proneness to hallucinations.

  7. Ground Motion Prediction of Subduction Earthquakes using the Onshore-Offshore Ambient Seismic Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viens, L.; Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.

    2014-12-01

    Seismic waves produced by earthquakes already caused plenty of damages all around the world and are still a real threat to human beings. To reduce seismic risk associated with future earthquakes, accurate ground motion predictions are required, especially for cities located atop sedimentary basins that can trap and amplify these seismic waves. We focus this study on long-period ground motions produced by subduction earthquakes in Japan which have the potential to damage large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings, bridges, and oil storage tanks. We extracted the impulse response functions from the ambient seismic field recorded by two stations using one as a virtual source, without any preprocessing. This method allows to recover the reliable phases and relative, rather than absolute, amplitudes. To retrieve corresponding Green's functions, the impulse response amplitudes need to be calibrated using observational records of an earthquake which happened close to the virtual source. We show that Green's functions can be extracted between offshore submarine cable-based sea-bottom seismographic observation systems deployed by JMA located atop subduction zones and on-land NIED/Hi-net stations. In contrast with physics-based simulations, this approach has the great advantage to predict ground motions of moderate earthquakes (Mw ~5) at long-periods in highly populated sedimentary basin without the need of any external information about the velocity structure.

  8. Short-term hydroelectric generation model. Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models.

  9. Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S.

    1999-08-01

    This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

  10. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    PubMed

    Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  11. Short-term changes in beach morphology on Louisiana coast

    SciTech Connect

    Nakashima, L.D.

    1988-09-01

    A study of the short-term response of seven shoreline segments between the Sabine River and Sandy Point is based on data from a three-year coastal erosion monitoring project. Seventy-eight beach-profile transects were surveyed quarterly between December 1985 and March 1988 to determine their patterns and rates of shoreline change. Efforts were made to characterize straight and curved shorelines as well as those that have been artificially stabilized.

  12. Auditory Short-Term Memory Activation during Score Reading

    PubMed Central

    Simoens, Veerle L.; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback. PMID:23326487

  13. Short term UV line profile variation in 59 Cyg

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grady, C. A.; Doazan, V.; Peters, G. J.; Willis, A.; Snow, T. P.; Aitken, D.; Barker, P. K.; Bolton, C. T.; Henrichs, H.; Kitchen, C. R.

    1982-01-01

    The International ultraviolet Explorer high dispersion spectra of 59 Cyg obtained as part of the long term monitoring program have shown that noticeable variation can occur in C 5 and N 5 on timescales 3 hours t24 to 28 hours. In order to begin to resolve whether these changes occur continuously or sporadically, 48 hours were devoted to monitoring this star in January 1982. The January spectra show no short term variation, which may be consistent with sporadic rather than continuous variation.

  14. New vertical geodesy. [VLBI measurements for earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitcomb, J. H.

    1976-01-01

    The paper contains a review of the theoretical difference between orthometric heights and heights labeled geometric which are determined through use of an extraterrestrial frame of reference. The theory is supplemented with examples which portray very long baseline interferometry as a measuring system that will provide estimates of vertical crustal motion which are radically improved in comparison with those obtained from analysis of repeated geodetic levelings. The example of the San Fernando earthquake of 1971 is used to show how much estimates of orthometric and geometric height change might differ. A comment by another author is appended which takes issue with some of the conclusions of this paper. In particular, an attempt is made in the comment to rebut the conclusion that geodetic leveling is less reliable than VLBI measurements for determining relative elevation change of points separated by more than 56 km.

  15. Research about Short- Term Production Capacity Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    bi-xi, Zhang; jing, Song; xiu-li, Yu

    Under the circumstances of uncertain fluctuation of market demand, the degree of matching between production capacity and customers demand can affect the cost, the efficiency and the profits of an enterprise. Choosing the appropriate production capacity level is an important task for decision makers. The paper analyzes the characters of the short-term demand variation, the matching between the capacity and the demand, and its influence on the enterprise. Supposing the short-term demand varies seasonally, and the objective is minimum the loss of mismatch between the production capacity and market demand.Then,short-term production capacity decision model has been developed.Based on the model, this paper has probed into the mismatching loss of three strategies: fixed capacity strategy, subsection adjustment capacity strategy and dynamic adjustment capacity strategy,and an optimal capacity strategy is provided. By fixing the capacity-demand mismatching loss and changing the capacity adjustment rate, this paper also studies the sensitivity of the capacity strategy. The result shows that, firstly, as the capacity adjustment rate is less than a certain numerical value, the dynamic adjustment capacity is the optimal choice; secondly, as the capacity adjustment rate exceeds a certain numerical value, the optimal one is fixed capacity strategy; finally, as the rate falls in some specific area, the optimal one is subsection adjustment capacity strategy. One practical example is provided to prove the model's validity.

  16. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  17. 2-arachidonoylglycerol signaling impairs short-term fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Hartley, N D; Gunduz-Cinar, O; Halladay, L; Bukalo, O; Holmes, A; Patel, S

    2016-03-01

    Impairments in fear extinction are thought to be central to the psychopathology of posttraumatic stress disorder, and endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling has been strongly implicated in extinction learning. Here we utilized the monoacylglycerol lipase inhibitor JZL184 to selectively augment brain 2-AG levels combined with an auditory cue fear-conditioning paradigm to test the hypothesis that 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling modulates short-term fear extinction learning in mice. We show that systemic JZL184 impairs short-term extinction learning in a CB1 receptor-dependent manner without affecting non-specific freezing behavior or the acquisition of conditioned fear. This effect was also observed in over-conditioned mice environmentally manipulated to re-acquire fear extinction. Cumulatively, the effects of JZL184 appear to be partly due to augmentation of 2-AG signaling in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA), as direct microinfusion of JZL184 into the BLA produced similar results. Moreover, we elucidate a short ~3-day temporal window during which 2-AG augmentation impairs extinction behavior, suggesting a preferential role for 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling in the modulation of short-term behavioral sequelae to acute traumatic stress exposure.

  18. Short-term memory in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

    PubMed

    Jia, Jason; Fernandes, Yohaan; Gerlai, Robert

    2014-08-15

    Learning and memory represent perhaps the most complex behavioral phenomena. Although their underlying mechanisms have been extensively analyzed, only a fraction of the potential molecular components have been identified. The zebrafish has been proposed as a screening tool with which mechanisms of complex brain functions may be systematically uncovered. However, as a relative newcomer in behavioral neuroscience, the zebrafish has not been well characterized for its cognitive and mnemonic features, thus learning and/or memory screens with adults have not been feasible. Here we study short-term memory of adult zebrafish. We show animated images of conspecifics (the stimulus) to the experimental subject during 1 min intervals on ten occasions separated by different (2, 4, 8 or 16 min long) inter-stimulus intervals (ISI), a between subject experimental design. We quantify the distance of the subject from the image presentation screen during each stimulus presentation interval, during each of the 1-min post-stimulus intervals immediately following the stimulus presentations and during each of the 1-min intervals furthest away from the last stimulus presentation interval and just before the next interval (pre-stimulus interval), respectively. Our results demonstrate significant retention of short-term memory even in the longest ISI group but suggest no acquisition of reference memory. Because in the employed paradigm both stimulus presentation and behavioral response quantification is computer automated, we argue that high-throughput screening for drugs or mutations that alter short-term memory performance of adult zebrafish is now becoming feasible.

  19. Does tonality boost short-term memory in congenital amusia?

    PubMed

    Albouy, Philippe; Schulze, Katrin; Caclin, Anne; Tillmann, Barbara

    2013-11-06

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. Recent findings have demonstrated that this deficit is linked to an impaired short-term memory for tone sequences. As it has been shown before that non-musicians' implicit knowledge of musical regularities can improve short-term memory for tone information, the present study investigated if this type of implicit knowledge could also influence amusics' short-term memory performance. Congenital amusics and their matched controls, who were non-musicians, had to indicate whether sequences of five tones, presented in pairs, were the same or different; half of the pairs respected musical regularities (tonal sequences) and the other half did not (atonal sequences). As previously reported for non-musician participants, the control participants showed better performance (as measured with d') for tonal sequences than for atonal ones. While this improvement was not observed in amusics, both control and amusic participants showed faster response times for tonal sequences than for atonal sequences. These findings suggest that some implicit processing of tonal structures is potentially preserved in congenital amusia. This observation is encouraging as it strengthens the perspective to exploit implicit knowledge to help reducing pitch perception and memory deficits in amusia.

  20. 2-arachidonoylglycerol signaling impairs short-term fear extinction

    PubMed Central

    Hartley, N D; Gunduz-Cinar, O; Halladay, L; Bukalo, O; Holmes, A; Patel, S

    2016-01-01

    Impairments in fear extinction are thought to be central to the psychopathology of posttraumatic stress disorder, and endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling has been strongly implicated in extinction learning. Here we utilized the monoacylglycerol lipase inhibitor JZL184 to selectively augment brain 2-AG levels combined with an auditory cue fear-conditioning paradigm to test the hypothesis that 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling modulates short-term fear extinction learning in mice. We show that systemic JZL184 impairs short-term extinction learning in a CB1 receptor-dependent manner without affecting non-specific freezing behavior or the acquisition of conditioned fear. This effect was also observed in over-conditioned mice environmentally manipulated to re-acquire fear extinction. Cumulatively, the effects of JZL184 appear to be partly due to augmentation of 2-AG signaling in the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA), as direct microinfusion of JZL184 into the BLA produced similar results. Moreover, we elucidate a short ~3-day temporal window during which 2-AG augmentation impairs extinction behavior, suggesting a preferential role for 2-AG-mediated eCB signaling in the modulation of short-term behavioral sequelae to acute traumatic stress exposure. PMID:26926885

  1. Reduction of randomness in seismic noise as a short-term precursor to a volcanic eruption

    PubMed Central

    Glynn, C. C.; Konstantinou, K. I.

    2016-01-01

    Ambient seismic noise is characterized by randomness incurred by the random position and strength of the noise sources as well as the heterogeneous properties of the medium through which it propagates. Here we use ambient noise data recorded prior to the 1996 Gjálp eruption in Iceland in order to show that a reduction of noise randomness can be a clear short-term precursor to volcanic activity. The eruption was preceded on 29 September 1996 by a Mw ~5.6 earthquake that occurred in the caldera rim of the Bárdarbunga volcano. A significant reduction of randomness started occurring 8 days before the earthquake and 10 days before the onset of the eruption. This reduction was observed even at stations more than 100 km away from the eruption site. Randomness increased to its previous levels 160 minutes after the Bárdarbunga earthquake, during which time aftershocks migrated from the Bárdarbunga caldera to a site near the Gjálp eruption fissure. We attribute this precursory reduction of randomness to the lack of higher frequencies (>1 Hz) in the noise wavefield caused by high absorption losses as hot magma ascended in the upper crust. PMID:27883050

  2. Reduction of randomness in seismic noise as a short-term precursor to a volcanic eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glynn, C. C.; Konstantinou, K. I.

    2016-11-01

    Ambient seismic noise is characterized by randomness incurred by the random position and strength of the noise sources as well as the heterogeneous properties of the medium through which it propagates. Here we use ambient noise data recorded prior to the 1996 Gjálp eruption in Iceland in order to show that a reduction of noise randomness can be a clear short-term precursor to volcanic activity. The eruption was preceded on 29 September 1996 by a Mw ~5.6 earthquake that occurred in the caldera rim of the Bárdarbunga volcano. A significant reduction of randomness started occurring 8 days before the earthquake and 10 days before the onset of the eruption. This reduction was observed even at stations more than 100 km away from the eruption site. Randomness increased to its previous levels 160 minutes after the Bárdarbunga earthquake, during which time aftershocks migrated from the Bárdarbunga caldera to a site near the Gjálp eruption fissure. We attribute this precursory reduction of randomness to the lack of higher frequencies (>1 Hz) in the noise wavefield caused by high absorption losses as hot magma ascended in the upper crust.

  3. Earthquake prediction in the Soviet Union; an interview with I. L. Nersesov

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1980-01-01

    Dr. I. L. Nersesov is a seismologist with the Institute of Physics of the Earth, Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R., Moscow. He is one of the leaders in the Soviet national program of earthquake prediction

  4. Short-term memory for serial order: the Start-End Model.

    PubMed

    Henson, R N

    1998-07-01

    Three solutions to the problem of serial order can be identified: chaining, ordinal and positional theories. Error patterns in serial recall from short-term memory fail to support chaining theories, yet provide unequivocal evidence for positional theories. In a new model of short-term memory, the Start-End Model (SEM), the positions of items in a sequence are coded relative to the start and end of that sequence. Simulations confirm SEM's ability to capture the main phenomena in serial recall, such as the effects of primacy, recency, list length, grouping, modality, redundant suffices, proactive interference, retention interval, and phonological similarity. Moreover, SEM is the first model to capture the complete pattern of errors, including transpositions, repetitions, omissions, intrusions, confusions, and, in particular, positional errors between groups and between trials. Unlike other positional models however, SEM predicts that positional errors will maintain relative rather than absolute position, in agreement with recent experiments (Henson, 1977).

  5. Short term synaptic depression imposes a frequency dependent filter on synaptic information transfer.

    PubMed

    Rosenbaum, Robert; Rubin, Jonathan; Doiron, Brent

    2012-01-01

    Depletion of synaptic neurotransmitter vesicles induces a form of short term depression in synapses throughout the nervous system. This plasticity affects how synapses filter presynaptic spike trains. The filtering properties of short term depression are often studied using a deterministic synapse model that predicts the mean synaptic response to a presynaptic spike train, but ignores variability introduced by the probabilistic nature of vesicle release and stochasticity in synaptic recovery time. We show that this additional variability has important consequences for the synaptic filtering of presynaptic information. In particular, a synapse model with stochastic vesicle dynamics suppresses information encoded at lower frequencies more than information encoded at higher frequencies, while a model that ignores this stochasticity transfers information encoded at any frequency equally well. This distinction between the two models persists even when large numbers of synaptic contacts are considered. Our study provides strong evidence that the stochastic nature neurotransmitter vesicle dynamics must be considered when analyzing the information flow across a synapse.

  6. Self-tuning of neural circuits through short-term synaptic plasticity.

    PubMed

    Sussillo, David; Toyoizumi, Taro; Maass, Wolfgang

    2007-06-01

    Numerous experimental data show that cortical networks of neurons are not silent in the absence of external inputs, but rather maintain a low spontaneous firing activity. This aspect of cortical networks is likely to be important for their computational function, but is hard to reproduce in models of cortical circuits of neurons because the low-activity regime is inherently unstable. Here we show-through theoretical analysis and extensive computer simulations-that short-term synaptic plasticity endows models of cortical circuits with a remarkable stability in the low-activity regime. This short-term plasticity works as a homeostatic mechanism that stabilizes the overall activity level in spite of drastic changes in external inputs and internal circuit properties, while preserving reliable transient responses to signals. The contribution of synaptic dynamics to this stability can be predicted on the basis of general principles from control theory.

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    Crude oil production increased by 790,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) between 2011 and 2012, the largest increase in annual output since the beginning of U.S. commercial crude oil production in 1859. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to continue rising over the next two years represented in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

  8. Evaluation of Short-Term Bioassays to Predict Functional Impairment. Selected Short-Term Cardiovascular Toxicity Tests.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-10-01

    Monolayer of New Born Ratheart Cells." Biologie Cellulaire 37:125-130. Auger, C. and J. Chenaud, 1967. "Quebec Beer-Drinker’s Cardiomyo- pathy...R.J. ?layer, W.C. Roberts and E.S. Henderson, 1973. "Cardiac Ultrastructural Changes Induced by Daunoruhicin Therapy ." Cancer 32:771-788. 65 - -.. M...of Cardioactive Sub- stances in Cultures of Bacillus Anthracis." Archives International- es de Pharmacodynamie et de Therapie 189:336-347. Liu, C.T

  9. Evaluation of Short-Term Bioassays to Predict Functional Impairment. Selected Short-Term Hepatic Toxicity tests.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-10-01

    tissues; however, it is an essential and valuable component of toxic- ity studies. Seen under a microscope, the liver consists of roughly hexagonal...tetrachloride Pyrrolizidine alkaloids Beryllium Nucleus Pyrrolizidine alkaloids Dimethylnitrosamine Hydrazine Beryllium Aflatoxin Adapted from: Plaa 1975a 25...Morphologic examination is an essential aspect of the assessment of toxic substances in laboratory animals. It provides at least a tentative and often a

  10. Evaluation of Short-Term Bioassays to Predict Functional Impairment. Selected Short-Term Renal Toxicity Tests.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-10-01

    hyperthyroidism , liver dis- ease) can lead to glucose in the urine and thus distort the values calculated for TmG (Krupp and Chatton, 1979). Even when...observed latency period between the start of treatment and the rise in tubular cell counts was inversely propor- tional to the dose. This test is simple...resulted in the elevation of urinary LDH activity. Increased urinary activity of maltase and alkaline phosphatase * was reported in rats following treatment

  11. Evaluation of Short-Term Bioassays to Predict Functional Impairment. Selected Short-Term Pulmonary Toxicity Tests.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-10-01

    alveolar oxygen difference during pure oxygen- breathing in dogs . 2.5 Defense Mechanisms In addition to being an efficient organ of gas exchange, the lung...placed within the closed PP and breathes through an airway to the outside. The pressure changes of the airway opening (APaO) and the PP (&Ppp) are...the inspiration against a closed airway . The mechanisms that determine FRC and RV in most small labora- tory mammals differ from those in human beings

  12. Association between early attention-deficit/hyperactivity symptoms and current verbal and visuo-spatial short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Chiang, Huey-Ling

    2013-01-01

    Deficits in short-term memory are common in adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), but their current ADHD symptoms cannot well predict their short-term performance. Taking a developmental perspective, we wanted to clarify the association between ADHD symptoms at early childhood and short-term memory in late childhood and adolescence. The participants included 401 patients with a clinical diagnosis of DSM-IV ADHD, 213 siblings, and 176 unaffected controls aged 8-17 years (mean age, 12.02 ± 2.24). All participants and their mothers were interviewed using the Chinese Kiddie Epidemiologic version of the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia to obtain information about ADHD symptoms and other psychiatric disorders retrospectively, at an earlier age first, then currently. The participants were assessed with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--3rd edition, including Digit Span, and the Spatial working memory task of the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery. Multi-level regression models were used for data analysis. Although crude analyses revealed that inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity symptoms significantly predicted deficits in short-term memory, only inattention symptoms had significant effects (all p<0.001) in a model that included all three ADHD symptoms. After further controlling for comorbidity, age of assessment, treatment with methylphenidate, and Full-scale IQ, the severity of childhood inattention symptoms was still significantly associated with worse verbal (p = 0.008) and spatial (p ranging from 0.017 to 0.002) short-term memory at the current assessment. Therefore, our findings suggest that earlier inattention symptoms are associated with impaired verbal and visuo-spatial short-term memory at a later development stage. Impaired short-term memory in adolescence can be detected earlier by screening for the severity of inattention in childhood.

  13. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  14. Immunologic changes occurring at kindergarten entry predict respiratory illnesses after the Loma Prieta earthquake.

    PubMed

    Boyce, W T; Chesterman, E A; Martin, N; Folkman, S; Cohen, F; Wara, D

    1993-10-01

    Previous studies in adult populations have demonstrated alterations in immune function after psychologically stressful events, and pediatric research has shown significant associations between stress and various childhood morbidities. However, no previous work has examined stress-related immune changes in children and subsequent illness experience. Twenty children were enrolled in a study on immunologic changes after kindergarten entry and their prospective relationship to respiratory illness (RI) experience. Midway through a 12-week RI data collection period, the October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake occurred. The timing of this event created a natural experiment enabling us to study possible associations between immunologic changes at kindergarten entry, the intensity of earthquake-related stress for children and parents, and changes in RI incidence over the 6 weeks after the earthquake. Immunologic changes were measured using helper (CD4+)-suppressor (CD8+) cell ratios, lymphocyte responses to pokeweed mitogen, and type-specific antibody responses to Pneumovax, in blood sampled 1 week before and 1 week after school entry. RI incidence was assessed using home health diaries and telephone interviews completed every 2 weeks. RIs per child varied from none to six. Six children showed an increase in RI incidence after the earthquake; five experienced a decline. Changes in helper-suppressor cell ratios and pokeweed mitogen response predicted changes in RI incidence in the postearthquake period (r = .43, .46; p < .05). Children showing upregulation of immune parameters at school entry sustained a significant increase in RI incidence after the earthquake.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  15. Kinematic earthquake source inversion and tsunami runup prediction with regional geophysical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.

    2015-05-01

    Rapid near-source earthquake source modeling relying only on strong motion data is limited by instrumental offsets and magnitude saturation, adversely affecting subsequent tsunami prediction. Seismogeodetic displacement and velocity waveforms estimated from an optimal combination of high-rate GPS and strong motion data overcome these limitations. Supplementing land-based data with offshore wave measurements by seafloor pressure sensors and GPS-equipped buoys can further improve the image of the earthquake source and prediction of tsunami extent, inundation, and runup. We present a kinematic source model obtained from a retrospective real-time analysis of a heterogeneous data set for the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake. Our model is consistent with conceptual models of subduction zones, exhibiting depth dependent behavior that is quantified through frequency domain analysis of slip rate functions. The stress drop distribution is found to be significantly more correlated with aftershock locations and mechanism types when off-shore data are included. The kinematic model parameters are then used as initial conditions in a fully nonlinear tsunami propagation analysis. Notably, we include the horizontal advection of steeply sloping bathymetric features. Comparison with post-event on-land survey measurements demonstrates that the tsunami's inundation and runup are predicted with considerable accuracy, only limited in scale by the resolution of available topography and bathymetry. We conclude that it is possible to produce credible and rapid, kinematic source models and tsunami predictions within minutes of earthquake onset time for near-source coastal regions most susceptible to loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure, regardless of earthquake magnitude.

  16. Toward a Global Model for Predicting Earthquake-Induced Landslides in Near-Real Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowicki, M. A.; Wald, D. J.; Hamburger, M. W.; Hearne, M.; Thompson, E.

    2013-12-01

    We present a newly developed statistical model for estimating the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides in near-real time, which is designed for use in the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) and ShakeCast systems. We use standardized estimates of ground shaking from the USGS ShakeMap Atlas 2.0 to develop an empirical landslide probability model by combining shaking estimates with broadly available landslide susceptibility proxies, including topographic slope, surface geology, and climatic parameters. While the initial model was based on four earthquakes for which digitally mapped landslide inventories and well constrained ShakeMaps are available--the Guatemala (1976), Northridge, California (1994), Chi-Chi, Taiwan (1999), and Wenchuan, China (2008) earthquakes, our improved model includes observations from approximately ten other events from a variety of tectonic and geomorphic settings for which we have obtained landslide inventories. Using logistic regression, this database is used to build a predictive model of the probability of landslide occurrence. We assess the performance of the regression model using statistical goodness-of-fit metrics to determine which combination of the tested landslide proxies provides the optimum prediction of observed landslides while minimizing ';false alarms' in non-landslide zones. Our initial results indicate strong correlations with peak ground acceleration and maximum slope, and weaker correlations with surface geological and soil wetness proxies. In terms of the original four events included, the global model predicts landslides most accurately when applied to the Wenchuan and Chi-Chi events, and less accurately when applied to the Northridge and Guatemala datasets. Combined with near-real time ShakeMaps, the model can be used to make generalized predictions of whether or not landslides are likely to occur (and if so, where) for future earthquakes around the globe, and these estimates

  17. Limited short-term prognostic utility of cerebral NIRS during neonatal therapeutic hypothermia

    PubMed Central

    Thelen, Brian J.; Bapuraj, Jayapalli R.; Burns, Joseph W.; Swenson, Aaron W.; Christensen, Mary K.; Wiggins, Stephanie A.; Barks, John D.E.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the utility of amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) and regional oxygen saturation (rSO2) measured using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for short-term outcome prediction in neonates with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) treated with therapeutic hypothermia. Methods: Neonates with HIE were monitored with dual-channel aEEG, bilateral cerebral NIRS, and systemic NIRS throughout cooling and rewarming. The short-term outcome measure was a composite of neurologic examination and brain MRI scores at 7 to 10 days. Multiple regression models were developed to assess NIRS and aEEG recorded during the 6 hours before rewarming and the 6-hour rewarming period as predictors of short-term outcome. Results: Twenty-one infants, mean gestational age 38.8 ± 1.6 weeks, median 10-minute Apgar score 4 (range 0–8), and mean initial pH 6.92 ± 0.19, were enrolled. Before rewarming, the most parsimonious model included 4 parameters (adjusted R2 = 0.59; p = 0.006): lower values of systemic rSO2 variability (p = 0.004), aEEG bandwidth variability (p = 0.019), and mean aEEG upper margin (p = 0.006), combined with higher mean aEEG bandwidth (worse discontinuity; p = 0.013), predicted worse short-term outcome. During rewarming, lower systemic rSO2 variability (p = 0.007) and depressed aEEG lower margin (p = 0.034) were associated with worse outcome (model-adjusted R2 = 0.49; p = 0.005). Cerebral NIRS data did not contribute to either model. Conclusions: During day 3 of cooling and during rewarming, loss of physiologic variability (by systemic NIRS) and invariant, discontinuous aEEG patterns predict poor short-term outcome in neonates with HIE. These parameters, but not cerebral NIRS, may be useful to identify infants suitable for studies of adjuvant neuroprotective therapies or modification of the duration of cooling and/or rewarming. PMID:23771483

  18. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

  19. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

  20. A Spiking Working Memory Model Based on Hebbian Short-Term Potentiation.

    PubMed

    Fiebig, Florian; Lansner, Anders

    2017-01-04

    A dominant theory of working memory (WM), referred to as the persistent activity hypothesis, holds that recurrently connected neural networks, presumably located in the prefrontal cortex, encode and maintain WM memory items through sustained elevated activity. Reexamination of experimental data has shown that prefrontal cortex activity in single units during delay periods is much more variable than predicted by such a theory and associated computational models. Alternative models of WM maintenance based on synaptic plasticity, such as short-term nonassociative (non-Hebbian) synaptic facilitation, have been suggested but cannot account for encoding of novel associations. Here we test the hypothesis that a recently identified fast-expressing form of Hebbian synaptic plasticity (associative short-term potentiation) is a possible mechanism for WM encoding and maintenance. Our simulations using a spiking neural network model of cortex reproduce a range of cognitive memory effects in the classical multi-item WM task of encoding and immediate free recall of word lists. Memory reactivation in the model occurs in discrete oscillatory bursts rather than as sustained activity. We relate dynamic network activity as well as key synaptic characteristics to electrophysiological measurements. Our findings support the hypothesis that fast Hebbian short-term potentiation is a key WM mechanism.

  1. Distinct electrophysiological indices of maintenance in auditory and visual short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Lefebvre, Christine; Vachon, François; Grimault, Stephan; Thibault, Jennifer; Guimond, Synthia; Peretz, Isabelle; Zatorre, Robert J; Jolicœur, Pierre

    2013-11-01

    We compared the electrophysiological correlates for the maintenance of non-musical tones sequences in auditory short-term memory (ASTM) to those for the short-term maintenance of sequences of coloured disks held in visual short-term memory (VSTM). The visual stimuli yielded a sustained posterior contralateral negativity (SPCN), suggesting that the maintenance of sequences of coloured stimuli engaged structures similar to those involved in the maintenance of simultaneous visual displays. On the other hand, maintenance of acoustic sequences produced a sustained negativity at fronto-central sites. This component is named the Sustained Anterior Negativity (SAN). The amplitude of the SAN increased with increasing load in ASTM and predicted individual differences in the performance. There was no SAN in a control condition with the same auditory stimuli but no memory task, nor one associated with visual memory. These results suggest that the SAN is an index of brain activity related to the maintenance of representations in ASTM that is distinct from the maintenance of representations in VSTM.

  2. Persistent spatial information in the frontal eye field during object-based short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Clark, Kelsey L; Noudoost, Behrad; Moore, Tirin

    2012-08-08

    Spatial attention is known to gate entry into visual short-term memory, and some evidence suggests that spatial signals may also play a role in binding features or protecting object representations during memory maintenance. To examine the persistence of spatial signals during object short-term memory, the activity of neurons in the frontal eye field (FEF) of macaque monkeys was recorded during an object-based delayed match-to-sample task. In this task, monkeys were trained to remember an object image over a brief delay, regardless of the locations of the sample or target presentation. FEF neurons exhibited visual, delay, and target period activity, including selectivity for sample location and target location. Delay period activity represented the sample location throughout the delay, despite the irrelevance of spatial information for successful task completion. Furthermore, neurons continued to encode sample position in a variant of the task in which the matching stimulus never appeared in their response field, confirming that FEF maintains sample location independent of subsequent behavioral relevance. FEF neurons also exhibited target-position-dependent anticipatory activity immediately before target onset, suggesting that monkeys predicted target position within blocks. These results show that FEF neurons maintain spatial information during short-term memory, even when that information is irrelevant for task performance.

  3. Representation of Instantaneous and Short-Term Loudness in the Human Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Thwaites, Andrew; Glasberg, Brian R.; Nimmo-Smith, Ian; Marslen-Wilson, William D.; Moore, Brian C. J.

    2016-01-01

    Acoustic signals pass through numerous transforms in the auditory system before perceptual attributes such as loudness and pitch are derived. However, relatively little is known as to exactly when these transformations happen, and where, cortically or sub-cortically, they occur. In an effort to examine this, we investigated the latencies and locations of cortical entrainment to two transforms predicted by a model of loudness perception for time-varying sounds: the transforms were instantaneous loudness and short-term loudness, where the latter is hypothesized to be derived from the former and therefore should occur later in time. Entrainment of cortical activity was estimated from electro- and magneto-encephalographic (EMEG) activity, recorded while healthy subjects listened to continuous speech. There was entrainment to instantaneous loudness bilaterally at 45, 100, and 165 ms, in Heschl's gyrus, dorsal lateral sulcus, and Heschl's gyrus, respectively. Entrainment to short-term loudness was found in both the dorsal lateral sulcus and superior temporal sulcus at 275 ms. These results suggest that short-term loudness is derived from instantaneous loudness, and that this derivation occurs after processing in sub-cortical structures. PMID:27199645

  4. Improving digit span assessment of short-term verbal memory.

    PubMed

    Woods, David L; Kishiyamaa, Mark M; Lund, E William; Herron, Timothy J; Edwards, Ben; Poliva, Oren; Hink, Robert F; Reed, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    We measured digit span (DS) in two experiments that used computerized presentation of randomized auditory digits with performance-adapted list length adjustment. A new mean span (MS) metric of DS was developed that showed reduced variance, improved test-retest reliability, and higher correlations with the results of other neuropsychological test results when compared to traditional DS measures. The MS metric also enhanced the sensitivity of forward versus backward span comparisons, enabled the development of normative performance criteria with subdigit precision, and elucidated changes in DS performance with age and education level. Computerized stimulus delivery and improved scoring metrics significantly enhance the precision of DS assessments of short-term verbal memory.

  5. Short-term energy outlook. Volume 2. Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1983-05-01

    Recent changes in forecasting methodology for nonutility distillate fuel oil demand and for the near-term petroleum forecasts are discussed. The accuracy of previous short-term forecasts of most of the major energy sources published in the last 13 issues of the Outlook is evaluated. Macroeconomic and weather assumptions are included in this evaluation. Energy forecasts for 1983 are compared. Structural change in US petroleum consumption, the use of appropriate weather data in energy demand modeling, and petroleum inventories, imports, and refinery runs are discussed.

  6. Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweickert, Richard; Hayt, Cathrin

    1988-01-01

    In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

  7. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  8. Short-term muscle power during growth and maturation.

    PubMed

    Van Praagh, Emmanuel; Doré, Eric

    2002-01-01

    During growth and maturation, the study of very brief high-intensity exercise has not received the same attention from researchers as, for instance, aerobic function. In anaerobic tasks or sports events such as sprint cycling, jumping or running, the children's performance is distinctly lower than that of adults. This partly reflects children's lesser ability to generate mechanical energy from chemical energy sources during short-term intensive activity. For many years, various attempts have been made to quantify the anaerobic energy yield in maximal-intensity exercise, but many assumptions have had to be made with respect to mechanical efficiency, lactate turnover, dilution space for lactate, and so on. During childhood and adolescence, direct measurements of the rate or capacity of anaerobic pathways for energy turnover presents several ethical and methodological difficulties. Thus, rather than measure energy supply, paediatric exercise scientists have concentrated on measuring short-term muscle power (STMP) by means of standardised tests. Previously, investigators have used various protocols such as short-term cycling power tests, vertical jump tests or running tests. Cycling ergometer tests are the most common. There is, however, no ideal test, and so it is important to acknowledge the limitations of each test. Progress has been made in assessing instantaneous cycling STMP from a single exercise bout. Several investigators have reported STMP increases with age and have suggested that late pubertal period may accentuate anaerobic glycolysis. Mass-related STMP was shown to increase dramatically during childhood and adolescence, whereas the corresponding increase in peak blood lactate was considerably lower. The latter results support the hypothesis that the difference observed between children and adolescents during STMP testing is more related to neuromuscular factors, hormonal factors and improved motor coordination, rather than being an indicator of reduced

  9. MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro

    2016-04-18

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10{sup −26}∼10{sup −27} are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz∼100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  10. Short-term bioconcentration studies of Np in freshwater biota

    SciTech Connect

    Poston, T.M.; Klopfer, D.C.; Simmons, M.A. )

    1990-12-01

    Short-term laboratory exposures were conducted to determine the potential accumulation of Np in aquatic organisms. Concentration factors were highest in green algae. Daphnia magna, a filter-feeding crustacean, accumulated Np at levels one order of magnitude greater than the amphipod Gammarus sp., an omnivorous substrate feeder. Accumulation of Np in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was highest in carcass (generally greater than 78% of the total body burden) and lowest in fillets. Recommended concentration factors for Np, based on fresh weight, were 300 for green algae, 100 for filter-feeding invertebrates, for nonfilter-feeding invertebrates, 10 for whole fish, and one for fish flesh.

  11. Overwriting and intrusion in short-term memory.

    PubMed

    Bancroft, Tyler D; Jones, Jeffery A; Ensor, Tyler M; Hockley, William E; Servos, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Studies of interference in working and short-term memory suggest that irrelevant information may overwrite the contents of memory or intrude into memory. While some previous studies have reported greater interference when irrelevant information is similar to the contents of memory than when it is dissimilar, other studies have reported greater interference for dissimilar distractors than for similar distractors. In the present study, we find the latter effect in a paradigm that uses auditory tones as stimuli. We suggest that the effects of distractor similarity to memory contents are mediated by the type of information held in memory, particularly the complexity or simplicity of information.

  12. Deformability of expanded polystyrene under short-term compression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gnip, I. J.; Vaitkus, S. I.; Kersulis, V. I.; Veyelis, S. A.

    2007-09-01

    The results obtained in an experimental investigation of deformability of expanded polystyrene (EPS) under short-term compression are presented. The density of EPS varied from 13 to 28 kg/m3. The method of design of experiments was used to determine the elastic modulus and the ultimate strain (corresponding to the end of quasi-linear deformability) under compression stresses operating perpendicularly and parallel to the faces of EPS products. A graphical interpretation of the models is also presented. Based on the experimental data obtained, it was concluded that the expanded polystyrene was homogeneous in mutually perpendicular planes with respect to its deformability in compression.

  13. MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro

    2016-04-01

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10-26~ 10-27 are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz~100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  14. Advance Prediction of the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake: A Missed Opportunity for Disaster Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, C. A.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    There was a missed opportunity for implementing important disaster preparedness measures following an earthquake prediction that was announced as an alarm in mid-2001. This intermediate-term middle-range prediction was the initiation of a chain of alarms that successfully detected the time, region, and magnitude range for the magnitude 9.0 March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The prediction chains were made using an algorithm called M8 and is the latest of many predictions tested worldwide for more than 25 years, the results of which show at least a 70% success rate. The earthquake detection could have been utilized to implement measures and improve earthquake preparedness in advance; unfortunately this was not done, in part due to the predictions' limited distribution and the lack of applying existing methods for using intermediate-term predictions to make decisions for taking action. The resulting earthquake and induced tsunami caused tremendous devastation to north-east Japan. Methods that were known in advance of the predication and further advanced during the prediction timeframe are presented in a scenario describing some possibilities on how the 2001 prediction may have been utilized to reduce significant damage, including damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and to show prudent cost-effective actions can be taken if the prediction certainty is known, but not necessarily high. The purpose of this presentation is to show how the prediction information can be strategically used to enhance disaster preparedness and reduce future impacts from the world's largest earthquakes.

  15. A COMPARISON OF WINTER SHORT-TERM AND ANNUAL AVERAGE RADON MEASUREMENTS IN BASEMENTS OF A RADON-PRONE REGION AND EVALUATION OF FURTHER RADON TESTING INDICATORS

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Nirmalla G.; Steck, Daniel J.; Field, R. William

    2014-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the temporal variability between basement winter short-term (7 to 10 days) and basement annual radon measurements. Other objectives were to test the short-term measurement’s diagnostic performance at two reference levels and to evaluate its ability to predict annual average basement radon concentrations. Electret ion chamber (short-term) and alpha track (annual) radon measurements were obtained by trained personnel in Iowa residences. Overall, the geometric mean of the short-term radon concentrations (199 Bq m−3) was slightly greater than the geometric mean of the annual radon concentrations (181 Bq m−3). Short-term tests incorrectly predicted that the basement annual radon concentrations would be below 148 Bq m−3 12% of the time and 2% of the time at 74 Bq m−3. The short-term and annual radon concentrations were strongly correlated (r=0.87, p<0.0001). The foundation wall material of the basement was the only significant factor to have an impact on the absolute difference between the short-term and annual measurements. The findings from this study provide evidence of a substantially lower likelihood of obtaining a false negative result from a single short-term test in a region with high indoor radon potential when the reference level is lowered to 74 Bq m−3. PMID:24670901

  16. A comparison of winter short-term and annual average radon measurements in basements of a radon-prone region and evaluation of further radon testing indicators.

    PubMed

    Barros, Nirmalla G; Steck, Daniel J; Field, R William

    2014-05-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the temporal variability between basement winter short-term (7 to 10 d) and basement annual radon measurements. Other objectives were to test the short-term measurement's diagnostic performance at two reference levels and to evaluate its ability to predict annual average basement radon concentrations. Electret ion chamber (short-term) and alpha track (annual) radon measurements were obtained by trained personnel in Iowa residences. Overall, the geometric mean of the short-term radon concentrations (199 Bq m) was slightly greater than the geometric mean of the annual radon concentrations (181 Bq m). Short-term tests correctly predicted annual radon concentrations to be above the 148 Bq m action level 88% of the time and above a 74 Bq m level 98% of the time. The short-term and annual radon concentrations were strongly correlated (r = 0.87, p < 0.0001). The foundation wall material of the basement was the only significant factor to have an impact on the absolute difference between the short-term and annual measurements. The findings from this study provide evidence of a substantially lower likelihood of obtaining a false negative result from a single short-term test in a region with high indoor radon potential when the reference level is lowered to 74 Bq m.

  17. Test-sites for earthquake prediction experiments within the Colli Albani region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrocchi, F.; Calcara, M.

    In this paper we discuss some geochemical data gathered by discrete and continuous monitoring during the 1995-1996 period, carried out for earthquake prediction test-experiments throughout the Colli Albani quiescent volcano, seat of seismicity, selecting some gas discharge sites with peri-volcanic composition. In particular we stressed the results obtained at the continuous geochemical monitoring station (GMS I, BAR site), designed by ING for geochemical surveillance of seismic events. The 12/6/1995 (M=3.6-3.8) Roma earthquake together with the 3/11/1995 (M=3.1) Tivoli earthquake was the most energetic events within the Colli Albani - Roma area, after the beginning of the continuous monitoring (1991) up today: strict correlation between these seismic events and fluid geochemical anomalies in groundwater has been discovered (temperature, Eh, 222Rn, CO 2, NH 3). Separation at depth of a vapour phase, rich in reducing-acidic gases (CO 2, H 2S, etc...), from a hyper-saline brine, within the deep geothermal reservoir is hypothesised to explain the geochemical anomalies: probably the transtensional episodes accompanying the seismic sequences caused an increasing and/or triggering of the phase-separation process and fluid migration, on the regional scale of the Western sector of the Colli Albani, beyond the seismogenic depth (2-4 Km) up to surface. We draw the state of art of GMS II monitoring prototype and the selection criteria of test-sites for earthquake prediction experiments in the Colli Albani region.