show large variability: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for show large variability

A SYSTEMATIC SEARCH FOR COROTATING INTERACTION REGIONS IN APPARENTLY SINGLE GALACTIC WOLF-RAYET STARS. II. A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE WIND VARIABILITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chene, A.-N.; St-Louis, N., E-mail: achene@astro-udec.cl, E-mail: stlouis@astro.umontreal.ca

This study is the second part of a survey searching for large-scale spectroscopic variability in apparently single Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars. In a previous paper (Paper I), we described and characterized the spectroscopic variability level of 25 WR stars observable from the northern hemisphere and found 3 new candidates presenting large-scale wind variability, potentially originating from large-scale structures named corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In this second paper, we discuss an additional 39 stars observable from the southern hemisphere. For each star in our sample, we obtained 4-5 high-resolution spectra with a signal-to-noise ratio of {approx}100 and determined its variability level usingmore » the approach described in Paper I. In total, 10 new stars are found to show large-scale spectral variability of which 7 present CIR-type changes (WR 8, WR 44, WR55, WR 58, WR 61, WR 63, WR 100). Of the remaining stars, 20 were found to show small-amplitude changes and 9 were found to show no spectral variability as far as can be concluded from the data on hand. Also, we discuss the spectroscopic variability level of all single galactic WR stars that are brighter than v {approx} 12.5, and some WR stars with 12.5 < v {<=} 13.5, i.e., all the stars presented in our two papers and four more stars for which spectra have already been published in the literature. We find that 23/68 stars (33.8%) present large-scale variability, but only 12/54 stars ({approx}22.1%) are potentially of CIR type. Also, we find that 31/68 stars (45.6%) only show small-scale variability, most likely due to clumping in the wind. Finally, no spectral variability is detected based on the data on hand for 14/68 (20.6%) stars. Interestingly, the variability with the highest amplitude also has the widest mean velocity dispersion.« less
Large-scale expensive black-box function optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Kashif; Bailey, William; Couët, Benoît

2012-09-01

This paper presents the application of an adaptive radial basis function method to a computationally expensive black-box reservoir simulation model of many variables. An iterative proxy-based scheme is used to tune the control variables, distributed for finer control over a varying number of intervals covering the total simulation period, to maximize asset NPV. The method shows that large-scale simulation-based function optimization of several hundred variables is practical and effective.
European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.
Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiviluoma, Juha; Holttinen, Hannele; Weir, David

2015-10-25

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1more » h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.« less
[Soil and forest structure in the Colombian Amazon].

PubMed

Calle-Rendón, Bayron R; Moreno, Flavio; Cárdenas López, Dairon

2011-09-01

Forests structural differences could result of environmental variations at different scales. Because soils are an important component of plant's environment, it is possible that edaphic and structural variables are associated and that, in consequence, spatial autocorrelation occurs. This paper aims to answer two questions: (1) are structural and edaphic variables associated at local scale in a terra firme forest of Colombian Amazonia? and (2) are these variables regionalized at the scale of work? To answer these questions we analyzed the data of a 6ha plot established in a terra firme forest of the Amacayacu National Park. Structural variables included basal area and density of large trees (diameter > or = 10cm) (Gdos and Ndos), basal area and density of understory individuals (diameter < 10cm) (Gsot and Nsot) and number of species of large trees (sp). Edaphic variables included were pH, organic matter, P, Mg, Ca, K, Al, sand, silt and clay. Structural and edaphic variables were reduced through a principal component analysis (PCA); then, the association between edaphic and structural components from PCA was evaluated by multiple regressions. The existence of regionalization of these variables was studied through isotropic variograms, and autocorrelated variables were spatially mapped. PCA found two significant components for structure, corresponding to the structure of large trees (G, Gdos, Ndos and sp) and of small trees (N, Nsot and Gsot), which explained 43.9% and 36.2% of total variance, respectively. Four components were identified for edaphic variables, which globally explained 81.9% of total variance and basically represent drainage and soil fertility. Regression analyses were significant (p < 0.05) and showed that the structure of both large and small trees is associated with greater sand contents and low soil fertility, though they explained a low proportion of total variability (R2 was 4.9% and 16.5% for the structure of large trees and small tress, respectively). Variables with spatial autocorrelation were the structure of small trees, Al, silt, and sand. Among them, Nsot and sand content showed similar patterns of spatial distribution inside the plot.
Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

2017-12-01

The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate variations play a role in TC intensification.
Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.
Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: limitations and implications of model calibration using eddy flux observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Suzuki, T.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Hajima, T.; Ueyama, M.; Sasai, T.; Hirata, R.; Saigusa, N.; Ohtani, Y.; Takagi, K.

2010-07-01

Terrestrial biosphere models show large differences when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these differences is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of the condition of terrestrial ecosystems and future climate change. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of their carbon budgets, we investigated the utility of the eddy flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine - based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID), we conducted two simulations: (1) point simulations at four eddy flux sites in Japan and (2) spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings) and a modified model (based on model parameter tuning using eddy flux data). Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using eddy flux data (GPP, RE and NEP), most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs. This study demonstrated that careful validation and calibration of models with available eddy flux data reduced model-by-model differences. Yet, site history, analysis of model structure changes, and more objective procedure of model calibration should be included in the further analysis.
Variability of yellow tulp (Moraea pallida Bak.) toxicity.

PubMed

Snyman, L D; Schultz, R A; van den Berg, H

2011-06-01

Yellow tulp (Moraea pallida Bak.), collected predominantly during the flowering stage from a number of sites in South Africa, showed large variation in digoxin equivalent values, indicating variability in yellow tulp toxicity. Very low values were recorded for tulp collected from certain sites in the Northern Cape.
Spatial Variability of Trace Gases During DISCOVER-AQ: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Follette-Cook, Melanie B.; Pickering, K.; Crawford, J.; Appel, W.; Diskin, G.; Fried, A.; Loughner, C.; Pfister, G.; Weinheimer, A.

2015-01-01

Results from an in-depth analysis of trace gas variability in MD indicated that the variability in this region was large enough to be observable by a TEMPO-like instrument. The variability observed in MD is relatively similar to the other three campaigns with a few exceptions: CO variability in CA was much higher than in the other regions; HCHO variability in CA and CO was much lower; MD showed the lowest variability in NO2All model simulations do a reasonable job simulating O3 variability. For CO, the CACO simulations largely under over estimate the variability in the observations. The variability in HCHO is underestimated for every campaign. NO2 variability is slightly overestimated in MD, more so in CO. The TX simulation underestimates the variability in each trace gas. This is most likely due to missing emissions sources (C. Loughner, manuscript in preparation).Future Work: Where reasonable, we will use these model outputs to further explore the resolvability from space of these key trace gases using analyses of tropospheric column amounts relative to satellite precision requirements, similar to Follette-Cook et al. (2015).
Temperature Variability Associated with the Middle Atmosphere Electrodynamics (MAE-1) Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidlin, F. J.

1999-01-01

Meteorological rockets launched during the Middle Atmosphere Electrodynamics (MAE-1) Campaign in October 1980 from Andoya Rocket Range (ARR), Norway, exhibited large and unexpected temperature variability. Temperatures were found to vary as much as 20 C within a few hours and demonstrated a similar type of variability from one day to the next. Following examination of the reduced rocketsonde profiles the question was raised whether the observed variability was due to natural atmospheric variability or instrument malfunction. Small-scale variability, as observed, may result from one or multiple sources, e.g., intense storms upstream from the observing site, orography such as mountain waves off of the Greenland Plateau, convective activity, gravity waves, etc. Arranging the observations spaced over time showed that the perturbations moved downward. Prior to MAE-1 very few small rocketsonde measurements had been launched from ARR, thus the quality of the initial measurements in early October caused concern when the large variability was noted. We discuss the errors of the rocketsonde measurements, graphically review the nature of the variability observed, compare the data with other measurements, and postulate a possible cause for the variability.
Detailed analysis of the microbial population in Malaysian spontaneous cocoa pulp fermentations reveals a core and variable microbiota.

PubMed

Meersman, Esther; Steensels, Jan; Mathawan, Melissa; Wittocx, Pieter-Jan; Saels, Veerle; Struyf, Nore; Bernaert, Herwig; Vrancken, Gino; Verstrepen, Kevin J

2013-01-01

The fermentation of cocoa pulp is one of the few remaining large-scale spontaneous microbial processes in today's food industry. The microbiota involved in cocoa pulp fermentations is complex and variable, which leads to inconsistent production efficiency and cocoa quality. Despite intensive research in the field, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the microbiota is still lacking, especially for the expanding Asian production region. Here, we report a large-scale, comprehensive analysis of four spontaneous Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations across two time points in the harvest season and two fermentation methods. Our results show that the cocoa microbiota consists of a "core" and a "variable" part. The bacterial populations show a remarkable consistency, with only two dominant species, Lactobacillus fermentum and Acetobacter pasteurianus. The fungal diversity is much larger, with four dominant species occurring in all fermentations ("core" yeasts), and a large number of yeasts that only occur in lower numbers and specific fermentations ("variable" yeasts). Despite this diversity, a clear pattern emerges, with early dominance of apiculate yeasts and late dominance of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our results provide new insights into the microbial diversity in Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations and pave the way for the selection of starter cultures to increase efficiency and consistency.
Hydroclimatic variability and predictability: a survey of recent research

DOE PAGES

Koster, Randal D.; Betts, Alan K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; ...

2017-07-25

Recent research in large-scale hydroclimatic variability is surveyed, focusing on five topics: (i) variability in general, (ii) droughts, (iii) floods, (iv) land–atmosphere coupling, and (v) hydroclimatic prediction. Moreover, each surveyed topic is supplemented by illustrative examples of recent research, as presented at a 2016 symposium honoring the career of Professor Eric Wood. Altogether, the recent literature and the illustrative examples clearly show that current research into hydroclimatic variability is strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Hydroclimatic variability and predictability: a survey of recent research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koster, Randal D.; Betts, Alan K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

Recent research in large-scale hydroclimatic variability is surveyed, focusing on five topics: (i) variability in general, (ii) droughts, (iii) floods, (iv) land–atmosphere coupling, and (v) hydroclimatic prediction. Moreover, each surveyed topic is supplemented by illustrative examples of recent research, as presented at a 2016 symposium honoring the career of Professor Eric Wood. Altogether, the recent literature and the illustrative examples clearly show that current research into hydroclimatic variability is strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Smith, Eric A.

2004-01-01

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from: (1) TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), (2) Precipitation Radar (PR), and (3) TMI/PR Combined, standard level 2 algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that the diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are providing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas rainfall peaks during daytime ,however, various important exceptions are found. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening/early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late-afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall there is a secondary MLA maximum, co-existing with the LE-EM maximum, at latitudes dominated by large scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderance for an LE-EM maximum over land, co-existing with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large scale circulation. The ocean results clearly indicate that rainfall diurnal variability associated with large scale convection is an integral part of the atmospheric general circulation.
Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.
Proactive vs. reactive car driving: EEG evidence for different driving strategies of older drivers

PubMed Central

Wascher, Edmund; Getzmann, Stephan

2018-01-01

Aging is associated with a large heterogeneity in the extent of age-related changes in sensory, motor, and cognitive functions. All these functions can influence the performance in complex tasks like car driving. The present study aims to identify potential differences in underlying cognitive processes that may explain inter-individual variability in driving performance. Younger and older participants performed a one-hour monotonous driving task in a driving simulator under varying crosswind conditions, while behavioral and electrophysiological data were recorded. Overall, younger and older drivers showed comparable driving performance (lane keeping). However, there was a large difference in driving lane variability within the older group. Dividing the older group in two subgroups with low vs. high driving lane variability revealed differences between the two groups in electrophysiological correlates of mental workload, consumption of mental resources, and activation and sustaining of attention: Older drivers with high driving lane variability showed higher frontal Alpha and Theta activity than older drivers with low driving lane variability and—with increasing crosswind—a more pronounced decrease in Beta activity. These results suggest differences in driving strategies of older and younger drivers, with the older drivers using either a rather proactive and alert driving strategy (indicated by low driving lane variability and lower Alpha and Beta activity), or a rather reactive strategy (indicated by high driving lane variability and higher Alpha activity). PMID:29352314
State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ochsner, Tyson E.; Cosh, Michael Harold; Cuenca, Richard H.; Dorigo, Wouter; Draper, Clara S.; Hagimoto, Yutaka; Kerr, Yan H.; Larson, Kristine M.; Njoku, Eni Gerald; Small, Eric E.;

2013-01-01

Soil moisture is an essential climate variable influencing land atmosphere interactions, an essential hydrologic variable impacting rainfall runoff processes, an essential ecological variable regulating net ecosystem exchange, and an essential agricultural variable constraining food security. Large-scale soil moisture monitoring has advanced in recent years creating opportunities to transform scientific understanding of soil moisture and related processes. These advances are being driven by researchers from a broad range of disciplines, but this complicates collaboration and communication. For some applications, the science required to utilize large-scale soil moisture data is poorly developed. In this review, we describe the state of the art in large-scale soil moisture monitoring and identify some critical needs for research to optimize the use of increasingly available soil moisture data. We review representative examples of 1) emerging in situ and proximal sensing techniques, 2) dedicated soil moisture remote sensing missions, 3) soil moisture monitoring networks, and 4) applications of large-scale soil moisture measurements. Significant near-term progress seems possible in the use of large-scale soil moisture data for drought monitoring. Assimilation of soil moisture data for meteorological or hydrologic forecasting also shows promise, but significant challenges related to model structures and model errors remain. Little progress has been made yet in the use of large-scale soil moisture observations within the context of ecological or agricultural modeling. Opportunities abound to advance the science and practice of large-scale soil moisture monitoring for the sake of improved Earth system monitoring, modeling, and forecasting.

Practice makes perfect in memory recall

PubMed Central

Romani, Sandro; Katkov, Mikhail

2016-01-01

A large variability in performance is observed when participants recall briefly presented lists of words. The sources of such variability are not known. Our analysis of a large data set of free recall revealed a small fraction of participants that reached an extremely high performance, including many trials with the recall of complete lists. Moreover, some of them developed a number of consistent input-position-dependent recall strategies, in particular recalling words consecutively (“chaining”) or in groups of consecutively presented words (“chunking”). The time course of acquisition and particular choice of positional grouping were variable among participants. Our results show that acquiring positional strategies plays a crucial role in improvement of recall performance. PMID:26980785
Seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities and tendencies of water vapour in the upper stratosphere and mesospheric region over tropics (30°N-30°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nath, Oindrila; Sridharan, S.; Naidu, C. V.

2018-01-01

Tropical water vapour volume mixing ratio (WVMR) data for October 2004-September 2015 obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder are used to study its long-term variabilities and tendencies in the height region 12.1-0.002 hPa. Above 0.01 hPa, the WVMR shows minimum March-May and September-November (∼0.7-0.8 ppmv) and maximum during June-August. It shows a large interannual variability at 31-64 km. The results from multivariate regression analysis show an increasing trend with maximum value of ∼0.045 ppmv/yr at 1.21-0.41 hPa. It shows a significant negative solar cycle response at mesospheric heights.

Data-driven process decomposition and robust online distributed modelling for large-scale processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Zhang; Lijuan, Li; Lijuan, Yao; Shipin, Yang; Tao, Zou

2018-02-01

With the increasing attention of networked control, system decomposition and distributed models show significant importance in the implementation of model-based control strategy. In this paper, a data-driven system decomposition and online distributed subsystem modelling algorithm was proposed for large-scale chemical processes. The key controlled variables are first partitioned by affinity propagation clustering algorithm into several clusters. Each cluster can be regarded as a subsystem. Then the inputs of each subsystem are selected by offline canonical correlation analysis between all process variables and its controlled variables. Process decomposition is then realised after the screening of input and output variables. When the system decomposition is finished, the online subsystem modelling can be carried out by recursively block-wise renewing the samples. The proposed algorithm was applied in the Tennessee Eastman process and the validity was verified.
Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

PubMed Central

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Gute, David M.; Sack, R. Bradley; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions. PMID:24019441
Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

2017-01-01

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climatemore » change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.« less
Korean Families in America: Their Family Language Policies and Home-Language Maintenance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Hyun-Sook

2015-01-01

This study examined the family language policies (FLP) of Korean American parents and how the language practice, management, and ideology components of their FLP and demographic variables predict maintenance of the home language. Results of a large-scale (N = 480) survey show that different sets of FLP and demographic variables contributed to a…
The Flux Variability of Markarian 501 in Very High Energy Gamma Rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Bond, I. H.; Boyle, P. J.; Bradbury, S. M.; Breslin, A. C.; Buckley, J. H.; Burdett, A. M.; Gordo, J. Bussons; Carter-Lewis, D. A.; Catanese, M.; Cawley, M. F.; Fegan, D. J.; Finley, J. P.; Gaidos, J. A.; Hall, T.; Hillas, A. M.; Krennrich, F.; Lamb, R. C.; Lessard, R. W.; Masterson, C.; McEnery, J. E.; Moriarty, P.; Rodgers, A. J.; Rose, H. J.; Samuelson, F. W.; Sembroski, G. H.; Srinivasan, R.; Vassiliev, V. V.; Weekes, T. C.

1999-06-01

The BL Lacertae object Markarian 501 was identified as a source of γ-ray emission at the Whipple Observatory in 1995 March. Here we present a flux variability analysis on several timescales of the 233 hr data set accumulated over 213 nights (from March 1995 to July 1998) with the Whipple Observatory 10 m atmospheric Cerenkov imaging telescope. In 1995, with the exception of a single night, the flux from Markarian 501 was constant on daily and monthly timescales and had an average flux of only 10% that of the Crab Nebula, making it the weakest very high energy source detected to date. In 1996, the average flux was approximately twice the 1995 flux and showed significant month-to-month variability. No significant day-scale variations were detected. The average γ-ray flux above ~350 GeV in the 1997 observing season rose to 1.4 times that of the Crab Nebula--14 times the 1995 discovery level--allowing a search for variability on timescales shorter than 1 day. Significant hour-scale variability was present in the 1997 data, with the shortest, observed on MJD 50,607, having a doubling time of ~2 hr. In 1998 the average emission level decreased considerably from that of 1997 (to ~20% of the Crab Nebula flux), but two significant flaring events were observed. Thus the emission from Markarian 501 shows large amplitude and rapid flux variability at very high energies, as does Markarian 421. It also shows large mean flux level variations on year-to-year timescales, behavior that has not been seen from Markarian 421 so far.
Large-scale assessment of present day and future groundwater recharge and its sensitivity to climate variability in Europe's karst regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wagener, T.; Wada, Y.

2016-12-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.
Blue large-amplitude pulsators as a new class of variable stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrukowicz, Paweł; Dziembowski, Wojciech A.; Latour, Marilyn; Angeloni, Rodolfo; Poleski, Radosław; di Mille, Francesco; Soszyński, Igor; Udalski, Andrzej; Szymański, Michał K.; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz; Kozłowski, Szymon; Skowron, Jan; Skowron, Dorota; Mróz, Przemek; Pawlak, Michał; Ulaczyk, Krzysztof

2017-08-01

Regular intrinsic brightness variations observed in many stars are caused by pulsations. These pulsations provide information on the global and structural parameters of the star. The pulsation periods range from seconds to years, depending on the compactness of the star and properties of the matter that forms its outer layers. Here, we report the discovery of more than a dozen previously unknown short-period variable stars: blue large-amplitude pulsators. These objects show very regular brightness variations with periods in the range of 20-40 min and amplitudes of 0.2-0.4 mag in the optical passbands. The phased light curves have a characteristic sawtooth shape, similar to the shape of classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae-type stars pulsating in the fundamental mode. The objects are significantly bluer than main-sequence stars observed in the same fields, which indicates that all of them are hot stars. Follow-up spectroscopy confirms a high surface temperature of about 30,000 K. Temperature and colour changes over the cycle prove the pulsational nature of the variables. However, large-amplitude pulsations at such short periods are not observed in any known type of stars, including hot objects. Long-term photometric observations show that the variable stars are very stable over time. Derived rates of period change are of the order of 10-7 per year and, in most cases, they are positive. According to pulsation theory, such large-amplitude oscillations may occur in evolved low-mass stars that have inflated helium-enriched envelopes. The evolutionary path that could lead to such stellar configurations remains unknown.
A statistical model for Windstorm Variability over the British Isles based on Large-scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas; Befort, Daniel J.; Wild, Simon B.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Time-clustered winter storms are responsible for a majority of the wind-induced losses in Europe. Over last years, different atmospheric and oceanic large-scale mechanisms as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) have been proven to drive some significant portion of the windstorm variability over Europe. In this work we systematically investigate the influence of different large-scale natural variability modes: more than 20 indices related to those mechanisms with proven or potential influence on the windstorm frequency variability over Europe - mostly SST- or pressure-based - are derived by means of ECMWF ERA-20C reanalysis during the last century (1902-2009), and compared to the windstorm variability for the European winter (DJF). Windstorms are defined and tracked as in Leckebusch et al. (2008). The derived indices are then employed to develop a statistical procedure including a stepwise Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), aiming to hindcast the inter-annual (DJF) regional windstorm frequency variability in a case study for the British Isles. This case study reveals 13 indices with a statistically significant coupling with seasonal windstorm counts. The Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) showed the strongest correlation (0.61), followed by the NAO (0.48) and the Polar/Eurasia Pattern (0.46). The obtained indices (standard-normalised) are selected as predictors for a windstorm variability hindcast model applied for the British Isles. First, a stepwise linear regression is performed, to identify which mechanisms can explain windstorm variability best. Finally, the indices retained by the stepwise regression are used to develop a multlayer perceptron-based ANN that hindcasted seasonal windstorm frequency and clustering. Eight indices (SCA, NAO, EA, PDO, W.NAtl.SST, AMO (unsmoothed), EA/WR and Trop.N.Atl SST) are retained by the stepwise regression. Among them, SCA showed the highest linear coefficient, followed by SST in western Atlantic, AMO and NAO. The explanatory regression model (considering all time steps) provided a Coefficient of Determination (R^2) of 0.75. A predictive version of the linear model applying a leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) shows an R2 of 0.56 and a relative RMSE of 4.67 counts/season. An ANN-based nonlinear hindcast model for the seasonal windstorm frequency is developed with the aim to improve the stepwise hindcast ability and thus better predict a time-clustered season over the case study. A 7 node-hidden layer perceptron is set, and the LOOCV procedure reveals a R2 of 0.71. In comparison to the stepwise MLR the RMSE is reduced a 20%. This work shows that for the British Isles case study, most of the interannual variability can be explained by certain large-scale mechanisms, considering also nonlinear effects (ANN). This allows to discern a time-clustered season from a non-clustered one - a key issue for applications e.g., in the (re)insurance industry.
Practice makes perfect in memory recall.

PubMed

Romani, Sandro; Katkov, Mikhail; Tsodyks, Misha

2016-04-01

A large variability in performance is observed when participants recall briefly presented lists of words. The sources of such variability are not known. Our analysis of a large data set of free recall revealed a small fraction of participants that reached an extremely high performance, including many trials with the recall of complete lists. Moreover, some of them developed a number of consistent input-position-dependent recall strategies, in particular recalling words consecutively ("chaining") or in groups of consecutively presented words ("chunking"). The time course of acquisition and particular choice of positional grouping were variable among participants. Our results show that acquiring positional strategies plays a crucial role in improvement of recall performance. © 2016 Romani et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.
Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.
Anza palaeoichnological site. Late Cretaceous. Morocco. Part II. Problems of large dinosaur trackways and the first African Macropodosaurus trackway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrour, Moussa; Lkebir, Noura; Pérez-Lorente, Félix

2017-10-01

The Anza site shows large ichnological surfaces indicating the coexistence in the same area of different vertebrate footprints (dinosaur and pterosaur) and of different types (tridactyl and tetradactyl, semiplantigrade and rounded without digit marks) and the footprint variability of long trackways. This area may become a world reference in ichnology because it contains the second undebatable African site with Cretaceous pterosaur footprints - described in part I - and the first African site with Macropodosaurus footprints. In this work, problems related to long trackways are also analyzed, such as their sinuosity, the order-disorder of the variability (long-short) of the pace length and the difficulty of morphological classification of the theropod footprints due to their morphological variability.
Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam; Hermanson, Leon; Fereday, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stirling, Alison; Eade, Rosie; Gordon, Margaret; MacLachlan, Craig; Woollings, Tim; Sheen, Katy; Belcher, Stephen

2018-04-01

Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general—although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.
Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

2009-09-01

We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.
Effects of variables upon pyrotechnically induced shock response spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. L.

1986-01-01

Throughout the aerospace industry, large variations of 50 percent (6 dB) or more are continually noted for linear shaped charge (LSC) generated shock response spectra (SRS) from flight data (from the exact same location on different flights) and from plate tests (side by side measurements on the same test). A research program was developed to investigate causes of these large SRS variations. A series of ball drop calibration tests to verify calibration of accelerometers and a series of plate tests to investigate charge and assembly variables were performed. The resulting data were analyzed to determine if and to what degree manufacturing and assembly variables, distance from the shock source, data acquisition instrumentation, and shock energy propagation affect the SRS. LSC variables consisted of coreload, standoff, and apex angle. The assembly variable was the torque on the LSC holder. Other variables were distance from source of accelerometers, accelerometer mounting methods, and joint effects. Results indicated that LSC variables did not affect SRS as long as the plate was severed. Accelerometers mounted on mounting blocks showed significantly lower levels above 5000 Hz. Lap joints did not affect SRS levels. The test plate was mounted in an almost free-free state; therefore, distance from the source did not affect the SRS. Several varieties and brands of accelerometers were used, and all but one demonstrated very large variations in SRS.
A Conformational Transition in the Myosin VI Converter Contributes to the Variable Step Size

PubMed Central

Ovchinnikov, V.; Cecchini, M.; Vanden-Eijnden, E.; Karplus, M.

2011-01-01

Myosin VI (MVI) is a dimeric molecular motor that translocates backwards on actin filaments with a surprisingly large and variable step size, given its short lever arm. A recent x-ray structure of MVI indicates that the large step size can be explained in part by a novel conformation of the converter subdomain in the prepowerstroke state, in which a 53-residue insert, unique to MVI, reorients the lever arm nearly parallel to the actin filament. To determine whether the existence of the novel converter conformation could contribute to the step-size variability, we used a path-based free-energy simulation tool, the string method, to show that there is a small free-energy difference between the novel converter conformation and the conventional conformation found in other myosins. This result suggests that MVI can bind to actin with the converter in either conformation. Models of MVI/MV chimeric dimers show that the variability in the tilting angle of the lever arm that results from the two converter conformations can lead to step-size variations of ∼12 nm. These variations, in combination with other proposed mechanisms, could explain the experimentally determined step-size variability of ∼25 nm for wild-type MVI. Mutations to test the findings by experiment are suggested. PMID:22098742
Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia.

PubMed

O'Reagain, P J; Scanlan, J C

2013-03-01

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.
Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.

2003-10-01

We apply statistical tests based on discriminant analysis to the wide range of photospheric magnetic parameters described in a companion paper by Leka & Barnes, with the goal of identifying those properties that are important for the production of energetic events such as solar flares. The photospheric vector magnetic field data from the University of Hawai'i Imaging Vector Magnetograph are well sampled both temporally and spatially, and we include here data covering 24 flare-event and flare-quiet epochs taken from seven active regions. The mean value and rate of change of each magnetic parameter are treated as separate variables, thus evaluating both the parameter's state and its evolution, to determine which properties are associated with flaring. Considering single variables first, Hotelling's T2-tests show small statistical differences between flare-producing and flare-quiet epochs. Even pairs of variables considered simultaneously, which do show a statistical difference for a number of properties, have high error rates, implying a large degree of overlap of the samples. To better distinguish between flare-producing and flare-quiet populations, larger numbers of variables are simultaneously considered; lower error rates result, but no unique combination of variables is clearly the best discriminator. The sample size is too small to directly compare the predictive power of large numbers of variables simultaneously. Instead, we rank all possible four-variable permutations based on Hotelling's T2-test and look for the most frequently appearing variables in the best permutations, with the interpretation that they are most likely to be associated with flaring. These variables include an increasing kurtosis of the twist parameter and a larger standard deviation of the twist parameter, but a smaller standard deviation of the distribution of the horizontal shear angle and a horizontal field that has a smaller standard deviation but a larger kurtosis. To support the ``sorting all permutations'' method of selecting the most frequently occurring variables, we show that the results of a single 10-variable discriminant analysis are consistent with the ranking. We demonstrate that individually, the variables considered here have little ability to differentiate between flaring and flare-quiet populations, but with multivariable combinations, the populations may be distinguished.
Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies with Multiple Outcomes Using Penalization

PubMed Central

Liu, Jin; Huang, Jian; Ma, Shuangge

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have been extensively conducted, searching for markers for biologically meaningful outcomes and phenotypes. Penalization methods have been adopted in the analysis of the joint effects of a large number of SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) and marker identification. This study is partly motivated by the analysis of heterogeneous stock mice dataset, in which multiple correlated phenotypes and a large number of SNPs are available. Existing penalization methods designed to analyze a single response variable cannot accommodate the correlation among multiple response variables. With multiple response variables sharing the same set of markers, joint modeling is first employed to accommodate the correlation. The group Lasso approach is adopted to select markers associated with all the outcome variables. An efficient computational algorithm is developed. Simulation study and analysis of the heterogeneous stock mice dataset show that the proposed method can outperform existing penalization methods. PMID:23272092
Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

DOE PAGES

Zscheischler, Jakob; Fatichi, Simone; Wolf, Sebastian; ...

2016-08-08

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence ofmore » favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.« less

Building Coherent Validation Arguments for the Measurement of Latent Constructs with Unified Statistical Frameworks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rupp, Andre A.

2012-01-01

In the focus article of this issue, von Davier, Naemi, and Roberts essentially coupled: (1) a short methodological review of structural similarities of latent variable models with discrete and continuous latent variables; and (2) 2 short empirical case studies that show how these models can be applied to real, rather than simulated, large-scale…
Time-dependent breakdown of fiber networks: Uncertainty of lifetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsson, Amanda; Uesaka, Tetsu

2017-05-01

Materials often fail when subjected to stresses over a prolonged period. The time to failure, also called the lifetime, is known to exhibit large variability of many materials, particularly brittle and quasibrittle materials. For example, a coefficient of variation reaches 100% or even more. Its distribution shape is highly skewed toward zero lifetime, implying a large number of premature failures. This behavior contrasts with that of normal strength, which shows a variation of only 4%-10% and a nearly bell-shaped distribution. The fundamental cause of this large and unique variability of lifetime is not well understood because of the complex interplay between stochastic processes taking place on the molecular level and the hierarchical and disordered structure of the material. We have constructed fiber network models, both regular and random, as a paradigm for general material structures. With such networks, we have performed Monte Carlo simulations of creep failure to establish explicit relationships among fiber characteristics, network structures, system size, and lifetime distribution. We found that fiber characteristics have large, sometimes dominating, influences on the lifetime variability of a network. Among the factors investigated, geometrical disorders of the network were found to be essential to explain the large variability and highly skewed shape of the lifetime distribution. With increasing network size, the distribution asymptotically approaches a double-exponential form. The implication of this result is that, so-called "infant mortality," which is often predicted by the Weibull approximation of the lifetime distribution, may not exist for a large system.
The Modified HZ Conjugate Gradient Algorithm for Large-Scale Nonsmooth Optimization.

PubMed

Yuan, Gonglin; Sheng, Zhou; Liu, Wenjie

2016-01-01

In this paper, the Hager and Zhang (HZ) conjugate gradient (CG) method and the modified HZ (MHZ) CG method are presented for large-scale nonsmooth convex minimization. Under some mild conditions, convergent results of the proposed methods are established. Numerical results show that the presented methods can be better efficiency for large-scale nonsmooth problems, and several problems are tested (with the maximum dimensions to 100,000 variables).
Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. [for climatology studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Bell, T. L.; Cahalan, R. F.; Moeng, F. J.

1982-01-01

Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF's), eigenvectors of the spatial cross-covariance matrix of a meteorological field, are reviewed with special attention given to the necessary weighting factors for gridded data and the sampling errors incurred when too small a sample is available. The geographical shape of an EOF shows large intersample variability when its associated eigenvalue is 'close' to a neighboring one. A rule of thumb indicating when an EOF is likely to be subject to large sampling fluctuations is presented. An explicit example, based on the statistics of the 500 mb geopotential height field, displays large intersample variability in the EOF's for sample sizes of a few hundred independent realizations, a size seldom exceeded by meteorological data sets.
On the Onset of the Rainy Season in Amazonia: WHAT the Observations Show, and Why the Biases in Climate Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, J. A.; Alves, L. M.; Fu, R.

2014-12-01

The onset of the Amazon rainy season shows a large temporal and spatial variability, delays on the date of the onset will have strong impacts on local agriculture, hydroelectric power generation as well as on the hydrology of large rivers. Two "once-in-a-century" droughts occurred in 2005 and 2010, and it was shown that in those events the rainy season started later than normal, and also that on the last 10 years the dry season has increased in length by about one month. These events highlight the urgency for improving our understanding and capability to model onset of the rainy season and drought variability, for the present and future. Most studies have attributed the variability of the rainy season onset over Amazonia to the variability of the tropical oceans whether other factors, such as climate change, land use and aerosols also contribute to the variability are not clear.. Global climate models run on seasonal climate forecast mode still show large uncertainties on the prediction of onset of seasonal rains. As for climate change, the CMIP3 and CMIP5 appear to underestimate the past variability, and also project virtually no future change of the onset of rainy season over the Amazon even when they are forced by strong greenhouse forcing under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Why these models underestimate the variability of the rainy season onset, and whether this bias implies an underestimate of sensitivity of their dry season length to anthropogenic radiative forcing remain unclear. This FAPESP DOE grant 2013/50538 aims to explore use of the measurements provided by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facilities (AMF)-GoAmazon and the Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil (CHUVA) Field Experiments, along with global and regional model experiments, to explore the sources of the above described uncertainty. The project will address several issues, i.e. the inadequate representation of the types of convection (i.e., maritime versus continental) and their relationships to aerosols, land surface and atmospheric circulation as represented in climate models We will present our initial results addressing the factors that control the variability of the wet season onset over Amazonia, the influence of convective types on atmospheric diabatic heating based on GoAmazon and CHUVA.
Remote sensing estimation of the total phosphorus concentration in a large lake using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques.

PubMed

Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi

2015-03-15

Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, demonstrated advantages for estimating the TP concentration in a large lake and had a strong potential for universal application for the TP concentration estimation in large lake waters worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Near-infrared Variability in the Orion Nebula Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Thomas S.; Reipurth, Bo; Wolk, Scott J.; Vaz, Luiz Paulo; Cross, N. J. G.

2015-10-01

Using UKIRT on Mauna Kea, we have carried out a new near-infrared J, H, K monitoring survey of almost a square degree of the star-forming Orion Nebula Cluster with observations on 120 nights over three observing seasons, spanning a total of 894 days. We monitored ˜15,000 stars down to J≈ 20 using the WFCAM instrument, and have extracted 1203 significantly variable stars from our data. By studying variability in young stellar objects (YSOs) in the H - K, K color-magnitude diagram, we are able to distinguish between physical mechanisms of variability. Many variables show color behavior indicating either dust-extinction or disk/accretion activity, but we find that when monitored for longer periods of time, a number of stars shift between these two variability mechanisms. Further, we show that the intrinsic timescale of disk/accretion variability in young stars is longer than that of dust-extinction variability. We confirm that variability amplitude is statistically correlated with evolutionary class in all bands and colors. Our investigations of these 1203 variables have revealed 73 periodic AA Tau type variables, many large-amplitude and long-period (P\\gt 15 days) YSOs, including three stars showing widely spaced periodic brightening events consistent with circumbinary disk activity, and four new eclipsing binaries. These phenomena and others indicate the activity of long-term disk/accretion variability processes taking place in young stars. We have made the light curves and associated data for these 1203 variables available online.
Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Methods Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts’ exposure to the parasite’s dispersive stages. Results Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. Conclusions These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation—a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions—and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics. PMID:28828270
Mesoscale spatiotemporal variability in a complex host-parasite system influenced by intermediate host body size.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Sara M; Valdivia, Nelson

2017-01-01

Parasites are essential components of natural communities, but the factors that generate skewed distributions of parasite occurrences and abundances across host populations are not well understood. Here, we analyse at a seascape scale the spatiotemporal relationships of parasite exposure and host body-size with the proportion of infected hosts (i.e., prevalence) and aggregation of parasite burden across ca. 150 km of the coast and over 22 months. We predicted that the effects of parasite exposure on prevalence and aggregation are dependent on host body-sizes. We used an indirect host-parasite interaction in which migratory seagulls, sandy-shore molecrabs, and an acanthocephalan worm constitute the definitive hosts, intermediate hosts, and endoparasite, respectively. In such complex systems, increments in the abundance of definitive hosts imply increments in intermediate hosts' exposure to the parasite's dispersive stages. Linear mixed-effects models showed a significant, albeit highly variable, positive relationship between seagull density and prevalence. This relationship was stronger for small (cephalothorax length >15 mm) than large molecrabs (<15 mm). Independently of seagull density, large molecrabs carried significantly more parasites than small molecrabs. The analysis of the variance-to-mean ratio of per capita parasite burden showed no relationship between seagull density and mean parasite aggregation across host populations. However, the amount of unexplained variability in aggregation was strikingly higher in larger than smaller intermediate hosts. This unexplained variability was driven by a decrease in the mean-variance scaling in heavily infected large molecrabs. These results show complex interdependencies between extrinsic and intrinsic population attributes on the structure of host-parasite interactions. We suggest that parasite accumulation-a characteristic of indirect host-parasite interactions-and subsequent increasing mortality rates over ontogeny underpin size-dependent host-parasite dynamics.
Variability of pCO2 in surface waters and development of prediction model.

PubMed

Chung, Sewoong; Park, Hyungseok; Yoo, Jisu

2018-05-01

Inland waters are substantial sources of atmospheric carbon, but relevant data are rare in Asian monsoon regions including Korea. Emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere depend largely on the partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) in water; however, measured pCO 2 data are scarce and calculated pCO 2 can show large uncertainty. This study had three objectives: 1) to examine the spatial variability of pCO 2 in diverse surface water systems in Korea; 2) to compare pCO 2 calculated using pH-total alkalinity (Alk) and pH-dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) with pCO 2 measured by an in situ submersible nondispersive infrared detector; and 3) to characterize the major environmental variables determining the variation of pCO 2 based on physical, chemical, and biological data collected concomitantly. Of 30 samples, 80% were found supersaturated in CO 2 with respect to the overlying atmosphere. Calculated pCO 2 using pH-Alk and pH-DIC showed weak prediction capability and large variations with respect to measured pCO 2 . Error analysis indicated that calculated pCO 2 is highly sensitive to the accuracy of pH measurements, particularly at low pH. Stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) techniques were implemented to develop the most parsimonious model based on 10 potential predictor variables (pH, Alk, DIC, Uw, Cond, Turb, COD, DOC, TOC, Chla) by optimizing model performance. The RF model showed better performance than the MLR model, and the most parsimonious RF model (pH, Turb, Uw, Chla) improved pCO 2 prediction capability considerably compared with the simple calculation approach, reducing the RMSE from 527-544 to 105μatm at the study sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The role of internal variability for decadal carbon uptake anomalies in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spring, Aaron; Hi, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-04-01

The Southern Ocean is a major sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and hence it plays an essential role in modulating global carbon cycle and climate change. Previous studies based on observations (e.g., Landschützer et al. 2015) show pronounced decadal variations of carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean in recent decades and this variability is largely driven by internal climate variability. However, due to limited ensemble size of simulations, the variability of this important ocean sink is still poorly assessed by the state-of-the-art earth system models (ESMs). To assess the internal variability of carbon sink in the Southern Ocean, we use a large ensemble of 100 member simulations based on the Max Planck Institute-ESM (MPI-ESM). The large ensemble of simulations is generated via perturbed initial conditions in the ocean and atmosphere. Each ensemble member includes a historical simulation from 1850 to 2005 with an extension until 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 future projections. Here we use model simulations from 1980-2015 to compare with available observation-based dataset. We found several ensemble members showing decadal decreasing trends in the carbon sink, which are similar to the trend shown in observations. This result suggests that MPI-ESM large ensemble simulations are able to reproduce decadal variation of carbon sink in the Southern Ocean. Moreover, the decreasing trends of Southern Ocean carbon sink in MPI-ESM are mainly contributed by region between 50-60°S. To understand the internal variability of the air-sea carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean, we further investigate the variability of underlying processes, such as physical climate variability and ocean biological processes. Our results indicate two main drivers for the decadal decreasing trend of carbon sink: i) Intensified winds enhance upwelling of old carbon-rich waters, this leads to increase of the ocean surface pCO2; ii) Primary production is reduced in area from 50-60°S, probably induced by reduced euphotic water column stability; therefore the biological drawdown of ocean surface pCO2 is weakened accordingly and hence the ocean is in favor of carbon outgassing. Landschützer, et al. (2015): The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, Science, 349, 1221-1224.
Altered trait variability in response to size-selective mortality.

PubMed

Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Lindström, Kai; Parre, Noora; Arlinghaus, Robert; Alós, Josep; Kuparinen, Anna

2016-09-01

Changes in trait variability owing to size-selective harvesting have received little attention in comparison with changes in mean trait values, perhaps because of the expectation that phenotypic variability should generally be eroded by directional selection typical for fishing and hunting. We show, however, that directional selection, in particular for large body size, leads to increased body-size variation in experimentally harvested zebrafish (Danio rerio) populations exposed to two alternative feeding environments: ad libitum and temporarily restricted food availability. Trait variation may influence population adaptivity, stability and resilience. Therefore, rather than exerting selection pressures that favour small individuals, our results stress the importance of protecting large ones, as they can harbour a great amount of variation within a population, to manage fish stocks sustainably. © 2016 The Author(s).
Predictive Inference Using Latent Variables with Covariates*

PubMed Central

Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Junker, Brian; Taylor, Lowell J.; Black, Dan A.

2014-01-01

Plausible Values (PVs) are a standard multiple imputation tool for analysis of large education survey data that measures latent proficiency variables. When latent proficiency is the dependent variable, we reconsider the standard institutionally-generated PV methodology and find it applies with greater generality than shown previously. When latent proficiency is an independent variable, we show that the standard institutional PV methodology produces biased inference because the institutional conditioning model places restrictions on the form of the secondary analysts’ model. We offer an alternative approach that avoids these biases based on the mixed effects structural equations (MESE) model of Schofield (2008). PMID:25231627
Effect of Sequencing Strength and Endurance Training in Young Male Soccer Players.

PubMed

Makhlouf, Issam; Castagna, Carlo; Manzi, Vincenzo; Laurencelle, Louis; Behm, David G; Chaouachi, Anis

2016-03-01

This study examined the effects of strength and endurance training sequence (strength before or after endurance) on relevant fitness variables in youth soccer players. Fifty-seven young elite-level male field soccer players (13.7 ± 0.5 years; 164 ± 8.3 cm; 53.5 ± 8.6 kg; body fat; 15.6 ± 3.9%) were randomly assigned to a control (n = 14, CG) and 3 experimental training groups (twice a week for 12 weeks) strength before (SE, n = 15), after (ES, n = 14) or on alternate days (ASE, n = 14) with endurance training. A significant (p = 0.001) intervention main effect was detected. There were only trivial training sequence differences (ES vs. SE) for all variables (p > 0.05). The CG showed large squat 1 repetition maximum (1RM) and medium sprint, change of direction ability, and jump improvements. ASE demonstrated a trivial difference in endurance performance with ES and SE (p > 0.05). Large to medium greater improvements for SE and ES were reported compared with ASE for sprinting over 10 and 30 m (p < 0.02). The SE squat 1RM was higher than in ASE (moderate, p < 0.02). Postintervention differences between ES and SE with CG fitness variables were small to medium (p ≤ 0.05) except for a large SE advantage with the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery test (p < 0.001, large). This study showed no effect of intrasession training sequence on soccer fitness-relevant variables. However, combining strength and endurance within a single training session provided superior results vs. training on alternate days. Concurrent training may be considered as an effective and safe training method for the development of the prospective soccer player.
Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.
Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.
Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloern, James E.; Hieb, Kathryn A.; Jacobson, Teresa; Sansó, Bruno; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Stacey, Mark T.; Largier, John L.; Meiring, Wendy; Peterson, William T.; Powell, Thomas M.; Winder, Monika; Jassby, Alan D.

2010-11-01

Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large-scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.
Quantifying the uncertainty in heritability.

PubMed

Furlotte, Nicholas A; Heckerman, David; Lippert, Christoph

2014-05-01

The use of mixed models to determine narrow-sense heritability and related quantities such as SNP heritability has received much recent attention. Less attention has been paid to the inherent variability in these estimates. One approach for quantifying variability in estimates of heritability is a frequentist approach, in which heritability is estimated using maximum likelihood and its variance is quantified through an asymptotic normal approximation. An alternative approach is to quantify the uncertainty in heritability through its Bayesian posterior distribution. In this paper, we develop the latter approach, make it computationally efficient and compare it to the frequentist approach. We show theoretically that, for a sufficiently large sample size and intermediate values of heritability, the two approaches provide similar results. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort, we show empirically that the two approaches can give different results and that the variance/uncertainty can remain large.
Potential Impact of North Atlantic Climate Variability on Ocean Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Muhling, B.; Lee, S. K.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Enfield, D. B.; Lamkin, J. T.; Roffer, M. A.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have shown that upper ocean circulations largely determine primary production in the euphotic layers, here the global ocean model with biogeochemistry (GFDL's Modular Ocean Model with TOPAZ biogeochemistry) forced with the ERA-Interim is used to simulate the natural variability of biogeochemical processes in global ocean during 1979-present. Preliminary results show that the surface chlorophyll is overall underestimated in MOM-TOPAZ, but its spatial pattern is fairly realistic. Relatively high chlorophyll variability is shown in the subpolar North Atlantic, northeastern tropical Atlantic, and equatorial Atlantic. Further analysis suggests that the chlorophyll variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is affected by long-term climate variability. For the subpolar North Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is light-limited and is significantly correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation. A dipole pattern of chlorophyll variability is found between the northeastern tropical Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic. For the northeastern North Atlantic, the chlorophyll variability is significantly correlated with Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the negative phase of AMM and AMO, the increased trade wind in the northeast North Atlantic can lead to increased upwelling of nutrients. In the equatorial Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is largely link to Atlantic-Niño and associated equatorial upwelling of nutrients. The potential impact of climate variability on the distribution of pelagic fishes (i.e. yellowfin tuna) are discussed.
Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.
Variable-Speed Power-Turbine for the Large Civil Tilt Rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suchezky, Mark; Cruzen, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Turbine design concepts were studied for application to a large civil tiltrotor transport aircraft. The concepts addressed the need for high turbine efficiency across the broad 2:1 turbine operating speed range representative of the notional mission for the aircraft. The study focused on tailoring basic turbine aerodynamic design design parameters to avoid the need for complex, heavy, and expensive variable geometry features. The results of the study showed that good turbine performance can be achieved across the design speed range if the design focuses on tailoring the aerodynamics for good tolerance to large swings in incidence, as opposed to optimizing for best performance at the long range cruise design point. A rig design configuration and program plan are suggested for a dedicated experiment to validate the proposed approach.
Diagnostic Exercise: Circling and Behavioral Changes in a Cat.

PubMed

Faller, K; Leach, J; Gutierrez-Quintana, R; Finck, M; Hammond, G; Penderis, J; Marchesi, F

2015-07-01

A 4-year old spayed male domestic shorthair cat was presented with a history of circling and behavioral changes. Neurologic examination showed mild proprioceptive deficits. The lesion was localized in the forebrain, and magnetic resonance imaging revealed the presence of a large midline intracranial mass extending from the frontal lobe to the tentorial region of the brain. Euthanasia was elected due to poor prognosis. Histopathologic evaluation confirmed the presence of a mass composed by sheets and aggregates of large round/polygonal cells and multinucleate cells associated with deposits of cholesterol clefts, scattered hemorrhages and hemosiderin-laden macrophages. Immunohistochemistry showed that the round/polygonal cells and multinucleate cells were strongly positive for major histocompatibility complex class II antigen, variably positive for CD18, and occasionally positive for S100. Subsets of spindle cells showing variable expression of vimentin, S100, and neuron-specific enolase were also present. The final diagnosis was cholesterol granuloma. Differential diagnosis with meningioma is discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.
West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine

2015-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the future precipitation trends over West Africa resulting from CMIP5 coupled simulations. It is argued that the large spread in CMIP5 future projections may be related to the weight given to SST warming and direct CO2 effect by individual models. The capability of climate models in reproducing the SST-precipitation relationship appears to be crucial in this respect.
Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

2017-12-01

There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.
A Discrete Constraint for Entropy Conservation and Sound Waves in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xi-Ping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

2003-01-01

Ideal cloud-resolving models contain little-accumulative errors. When their domain is so large that synoptic large-scale circulations are accommodated, they can be used for the simulation of the interaction between convective clouds and the large-scale circulations. This paper sets up a framework for the models, using moist entropy as a prognostic variable and employing conservative numerical schemes. The models possess no accumulative errors of thermodynamic variables when they comply with a discrete constraint on entropy conservation and sound waves. Alternatively speaking, the discrete constraint is related to the correct representation of the large-scale convergence and advection of moist entropy. Since air density is involved in entropy conservation and sound waves, the challenge is how to compute sound waves efficiently under the constraint. To address the challenge, a compensation method is introduced on the basis of a reference isothermal atmosphere whose governing equations are solved analytically. Stability analysis and numerical experiments show that the method allows the models to integrate efficiently with a large time step.
Links between behavioral factors and inflammation

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Mary-Frances; Irwin, Michael R.

2010-01-01

This review focuses on those biobehavioral factors that show robust associations with markers of inflammation, including discussion of the following variables: diet, smoking, coffee, alcohol, exercise and sleep disruption. Each of these variables has been assessed in large-scale epidemiological studies, and many in clinical and experimental studies as well. Treatment strategies that target biobehavioral factors have the potential to complement and add to the benefit of anti-inflammatory medicines. PMID:20130566
Robot vibration control using inertial damping forces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Soo Han; Book, Wayne J.

1991-01-01

This paper concerns the suppression of the vibration of a large flexible robot by inertial forces of a small robot which is located at the tip of the large robot. A controller for generating damping forces to a large robot is designed based on the two time scale model. The controller does not need to calculate the quasi-steady variables and is efficient in computation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the inertial forces and the controller designed.
Robot vibration control using inertial damping forces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Soo Han; Book, Wayne J.

1989-01-01

The suppression is examined of the vibration of a large flexible robot by inertial forces of a small robot which is located at the tip of the large robot. A controller for generating damping forces to a large robot is designed based on the two time scale mode. The controller does not need to calculate the quasi-steady state variables and is efficient in computation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the inertial forces and the controller designed.
Scaling exponents for ordered maxima

DOE PAGES

Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Lemons, N. W.

2015-12-22

We study extreme value statistics of multiple sequences of random variables. For each sequence with N variables, independently drawn from the same distribution, the running maximum is defined as the largest variable to date. We compare the running maxima of m independent sequences and investigate the probability S N that the maxima are perfectly ordered, that is, the running maximum of the first sequence is always larger than that of the second sequence, which is always larger than the running maximum of the third sequence, and so on. The probability S N is universal: it does not depend on themore » distribution from which the random variables are drawn. For two sequences, S N~N –1/2, and in general, the decay is algebraic, S N~N –σm, for large N. We analytically obtain the exponent σ 3≅1.302931 as root of a transcendental equation. Moreover, the exponents σ m grow with m, and we show that σ m~m for large m.« less
Large amplitude change in spot-induced rotational modulation of the Kepler Ap star KIC 2569073

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drury, Jason A.; Murphy, Simon J.; Derekas, Aliz; Sódor, Ádám; Stello, Dennis; Kuehn, Charles A.; Bedding, Timothy R.; Bognár, Zsófia; Szigeti, László; Szakáts, Róbert; Sárneczky, Krisztián; Molnár, László

2017-11-01

An investigation of the 200 × 200 pixel `superstamp' images of the centres of the open clusters NGC 6791 and NGC 6819 allows for the identification and study of many variable stars that were not included in the Kepler target list. KIC 2569073 (V = 14.22), is a particularly interesting variable Ap star that we discovered in the NGC 6791 superstamp. With a rotational period of 14.67 d and 0.034 mag variability, it has one of the largest peak-to-peak variations of any known Ap star. Colour photometry reveals an antiphase correlation between the B band, and the V, R and I bands. This Ap star is a rotational variable, also known as an α2 CVn star, and is one of only a handful of Ap stars observed by Kepler. While no change in spot period or amplitude is observed within the 4 yr Kepler time series, the amplitude shows a large increase compared to ground-based photometry obtained two decades ago.
Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

2015-09-15

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.
Movement Pattern Variability in Stone Knapping: Implications for the Development of Percussive Traditions

PubMed Central

Rein, Robert; Nonaka, Tetsushi; Bril, Blandine

2014-01-01

The earliest direct evidence for tool-use by our ancestors are 2.6 million year old stone tools from Africa. These earliest artifacts show that, already, early hominins had developed the required advanced movement skills and cognitive capacities to manufacture stone tools. Currently, it is not well understood, however, which specific movement skills are required for successful stone knapping and accordingly it is unknown how these skills emerged during early hominin evolution. In particular, it is not clear which striking movements are indicative of skilled performance, how striking movement patterns vary with task and environmental constraints, and how movement patterns are passed on within social groups. The present study addresses these questions by investigating striking movement patterns and striking variability in 18 modern stone knappers (nine experienced and nine novices). The results suggest that no single movement pattern characterizes successful stone knapping. Participants showed large inter-individual movement variability of the elementary knapping action irrespective of knapping experience and knapping performance. Changes in task- and environmental constraints led knappers to adapt their elementary striking actions using a combination of individual and common strategies. Investigation of striking pattern similarities within social groups showed only partial overlap of striking patterns across related individuals. The results therefore suggest that striking movement patterns in modern stone knappers are largely specific to the individual and movement variability is not indicative of knapping performance. The implications of these results for the development of percussive traditions are discussed. PMID:25426630
Isogeometric analysis of free-form Timoshenko curved beams including the nonlinear effects of large deformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Seyed Farhad; Hashemian, Ali; Moetakef-Imani, Behnam; Hadidimoud, Saied

2018-03-01

In the present paper, the isogeometric analysis (IGA) of free-form planar curved beams is formulated based on the nonlinear Timoshenko beam theory to investigate the large deformation of beams with variable curvature. Based on the isoparametric concept, the shape functions of the field variables (displacement and rotation) in a finite element analysis are considered to be the same as the non-uniform rational basis spline (NURBS) basis functions defining the geometry. The validity of the presented formulation is tested in five case studies covering a wide range of engineering curved structures including from straight and constant curvature to variable curvature beams. The nonlinear deformation results obtained by the presented method are compared to well-established benchmark examples and also compared to the results of linear and nonlinear finite element analyses. As the nonlinear load-deflection behavior of Timoshenko beams is the main topic of this article, the results strongly show the applicability of the IGA method to the large deformation analysis of free-form curved beams. Finally, it is interesting to notice that, until very recently, the large deformations analysis of free-form Timoshenko curved beams has not been considered in IGA by researchers.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less
Quantifying the uncertainty in heritability

PubMed Central

Furlotte, Nicholas A; Heckerman, David; Lippert, Christoph

2014-01-01

The use of mixed models to determine narrow-sense heritability and related quantities such as SNP heritability has received much recent attention. Less attention has been paid to the inherent variability in these estimates. One approach for quantifying variability in estimates of heritability is a frequentist approach, in which heritability is estimated using maximum likelihood and its variance is quantified through an asymptotic normal approximation. An alternative approach is to quantify the uncertainty in heritability through its Bayesian posterior distribution. In this paper, we develop the latter approach, make it computationally efficient and compare it to the frequentist approach. We show theoretically that, for a sufficiently large sample size and intermediate values of heritability, the two approaches provide similar results. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort, we show empirically that the two approaches can give different results and that the variance/uncertainty can remain large. PMID:24670270
Individual differences and time-varying features of modular brain architecture.

PubMed

Liao, Xuhong; Cao, Miao; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2017-05-15

Recent studies have suggested that human brain functional networks are topologically organized into functionally specialized but inter-connected modules to facilitate efficient information processing and highly flexible cognitive function. However, these studies have mainly focused on group-level network modularity analyses using "static" functional connectivity approaches. How these extraordinary modular brain structures vary across individuals and spontaneously reconfigure over time remain largely unknown. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional MRI data (N=105) from the Human Connectome Project and a graph-based modularity analysis to systematically investigate individual variability and dynamic properties in modular brain networks. We showed that the modular structures of brain networks dramatically vary across individuals, with higher modular variability primarily in the association cortex (e.g., fronto-parietal and attention systems) and lower variability in the primary systems. Moreover, brain regions spontaneously changed their module affiliations on a temporal scale of seconds, which cannot be simply attributable to head motion and sampling error. Interestingly, the spatial pattern of intra-subject dynamic modular variability largely overlapped with that of inter-subject modular variability, both of which were highly reproducible across repeated scanning sessions. Finally, the regions with remarkable individual/temporal modular variability were closely associated with network connectors and the number of cognitive components, suggesting a potential contribution to information integration and flexible cognitive function. Collectively, our findings highlight individual modular variability and the notable dynamic characteristics in large-scale brain networks, which enhance our understanding of the neural substrates underlying individual differences in a variety of cognition and behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Hally B.; Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin-scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N-50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well-explained (R2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large-scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large-scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale.
Organization of vertical shear of wind and daily variability of monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouda, K. C.; Goswami, P.

2016-10-01

Very little is known about the mechanisms that govern the day to day variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall; in the current dominant view, the daily rainfall is essentially a result of chaotic dynamics. Most studies in the past have thus considered monsoon in terms of its seasonal (June-September) or monthly rainfall. We show here that the daily rainfall in June is associated with vertical shear of horizontal winds at specific scales. While vertical shear had been used in the past to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall, rarely any effort has been made to examine daily rainfall. Our work shows that, at least during June, the daily rainfall variability of ISM rainfall is associated with a large scale dynamical coherence in the sense that the vertical shear averaged over large spatial extents are significantly correlated with area-averaged daily rainfall. An important finding from our work is the existence of a clearly delineated monsoon shear domain (MSD) with strong coherence between area-averaged shear and area-averaged daily rainfall in June; this association of daily rainfall is not significant with shear over only MSD. Another important feature is that the association between daily rainfall and vertical shear is present only during the month of June. Thus while ISM (June-September) is a single seasonal system, it is important to consider the dynamics and variation of June independently of the seasonal ISM rainfall. The association between large-scale organization of circulation and daily rainfall is suggested as a basis for attempting prediction of daily rainfall by ensuring accurate simulation of wind shear.
Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes

PubMed Central

Weiss, Jeremy C.; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2013-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability. PMID:25284967

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes.

PubMed

Weiss, Jeremy C; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2012-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.
Recent Results on SNRs and PWNe from the Fermi Large Area Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hays, Elizabeth

2010-01-01

a) Symbiotic Binary System: White dwarf + red giant system. b) Nova: White dwarf builds up mass envelope to the point of thermonuclear fusion. c) Dramatic increase in visual magnitude. d) Recurrent Nova? e) Hints but no strong confirmation of previous nova f) Pre-nova activity: 1) White dwarf shows ongoing variability at level of several in magnitude. 2) V407 Cyg companion is a Mira star showing variability at level of several in magnitude. g) Origin of the gamma rays? 1) Strong shock propagating into dense medium around giant star land stellar wind. 2) Pion decay or electron processes?
Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.
Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765
Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.
Evaluation of solar irradiance models for climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William; Yeo, Kok-Leng; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami; Unruh, Yvonne; Morrill, Jeff

2015-04-01

Instruments on satellites have been observing both Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Spectral Solar Irradiance (SSI), mainly in the ultraviolet (UV), since 1978. Models were developed to reproduce the observed variability and to compute the variability at wavelengths that were not observed or had an uncertainty too high to determine an accurate rotational or solar cycle variability. However, various models and measurements show different solar cycle SSI variability that lead to different modelled responses of ozone and temperature in the stratosphere, mainly due to the different UV variability in each model, and the global energy balance. The NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models are the most comprehensive reconstructions of solar irradiance variability for the period from 1978 to the present day. But while NRLSSI and SATIRE-S show similar solar cycle variability below 250 nm, between 250 and 400 nm SATIRE-S typically displays 50% larger variability, which is however, still significantly less then suggested by recent SORCE data. Due to large uncertainties and inconsistencies in some observational datasets, it is difficult to determine in a simple way which model is likely to be closer to the true solar variability. We review solar irradiance variability measurements and modelling and employ new analysis that sheds light on the causes of the discrepancies between the two models and with the observations.
Variability of mass-wasting processes in the tectonically-controlled Calabro Tyrrhenian continental margin (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casalbore, D.; Bosman, A.; Casas, D.; Chiocci, F. L.; Martorelli, E.; Ridente, D.

2017-12-01

The recent collection of multibeam bathymetry and single-channel seismic profiles on the Calabro-Tyrrhenian continental margin in Southern Italy allowed us to depict a large suite of mass-wasting processes, ranging from gullies up to shelf-indenting canyon system along with over 400 landslide scars, affecting the 52% of the entire area. In detail, slide scars occur from the coast down to -1700 m, with mobilized volumes ranging from some hundreds of m3 up to tens of millions of m3. On the whole, they affect an area of >85 km2, being able to mobilize approximately 1.4 km3. These slides also show a large variability of features both in the headwall, translational and toe domain, thus providing useful insights for a better understanding of their failure and post-failure behavior. The aim of this study is to show the magnitude-frequency relationship of this large amount of slides in order to quantify a range of probabilities for the occurrence of new landslide events as well as to illustrate the main mechanisms that control their development and emplacement.
Development of fine-resolution analyses and expanded large-scale forcing properties. Part I: Methodology and evaluation

DOE PAGES

Li, Zhijin; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Feng, Sha; ...

2015-01-20

We produce fine-resolution, three-dimensional fields of meteorological and other variables for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system is implemented in a multiscale data assimilation (MS-DA) framework that is used within the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a cloud-resolving resolution of 2 km. The MS-DA algorithm uses existing reanalysis products and constrains fine-scale atmospheric properties by assimilating high-resolution observations. A set of experiments show that the data assimilation analysis realistically reproduces the intensity, structure, and time evolution of clouds and precipitation associated with a mesoscale convective system.more » Evaluations also show that the large-scale forcing derived from the fine-resolution analysis has an overall accuracy comparable to the existing ARM operational product. For enhanced applications, the fine-resolution fields are used to characterize the contribution of subgrid variability to the large-scale forcing and to derive hydrometeor forcing, which are presented in companion papers.« less
Large-scale climatic phenomena drive fluctuations in macroinvertebrate assemblages in lowland tropical streams, Costa Rica: The importance of ENSO events in determining long-term (15y) patterns

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Alonso; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how environmental variables influence the distribution and density of organisms over relatively long temporal scales is a central question in ecology given increased climatic variability (e.g., precipitation, ENSO events). The primary goal of our study was to evaluate long-term (15y time span) patterns of climate, as well as environmental parameters in two Neotropical streams in lowland Costa Rica, to assess potential effects on aquatic macroinvertebrates. We also examined the relative effects of an 8y whole-stream P-enrichment experiment on macroinvertebrate assemblages against the backdrop of this long-term study. Climate, environmental variables and macroinvertebrate samples were measured monthly for 7y and then quarterly for an additional 8y in each stream. Temporal patterns in climatic and environmental variables showed high variability over time, without clear inter-annual or intra-annual patterns. Macroinvertebrate richness and abundance decreased with increasing discharge and was positively related to the number of days since the last high discharge event. Findings show that fluctuations in stream physicochemistry and macroinvertebrate assemblage structure are ultimately the result of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as ENSO events, while the 8y P-enrichment did not appear to affect macroinvertebrates. Our study demonstrates that Neotropical lowland streams are highly dynamic and not as stable as is commonly presumed, with high intra- and inter-annual variability in environmental parameters that change the structure and composition of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages. PMID:29420548
What controls the variability of oxygen in the subpolar North Pacific?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takano, Yohei

Dissolved oxygen is a widely observed chemical quantity in the oceans along with temperature and salinity. Changes in the dissolved oxygen have been observed over the world oceans. Observed oxygen in the Ocean Station Papa (OSP, 50°N, 145°W) in the Gulf of Alaska exhibits strong variability over interannual and decadal timescales, however, the mechanisms driving the observed variability are not yet fully understood. Furthermore, irregular sampling frequency and relatively short record length make it difficult to detect a low-frequency variability. Motivated by these observations, we investigate the mechanisms driving the low-frequency variability of oxygen in the subpolar North Pacific. The specific purposes of this study are (1) to evaluate the robustness of the observed low-frequency variability of dissolved oxygen and (2) to determine the mechanisms driving the observed variability using statistical data analysis and numerical simulations. To evaluate the robustness of the low-frequency variability, we conducted spectral analyses on the observed oxygen at OSP. To address the irregular sampling frequency we randomly sub-sampled the raw data to form 500 ensemble members with a regular time interval, and then performed spectral analyses. The resulting power spectrum of oxygen exhibits a robust low-frequency variability and a statistically significant spectral peak is identified at a timescale of 15--20 years. The wintertime oceanic barotropic streamfunction is significantly correlated with the observed oxygen anomaly at OSP with a north-south dipole structure over the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the observed low-frequency variability is primarily driven by the variability of large-scale ocean circulation in the North Pacific. To test this hypothesis, we simulate the three-dimensional distribution of oxygen anomaly between 1952 to 2001 using data-constrained circulation fields. The simulated oxygen anomaly shows an outstanding variability in the Gulf of Alaska, showing that this region is a hotspot of oxygen fluctuation. Anomalous advection acting on the climatological mean oxygen gradient is the source of oxygen variability in this simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of the simulated oxygen show that the two dominant modes of the oxygen anomaly explains more than 50% of oxygen variance over the North Pacific, that are closely related to the dominant modes of climate variability in the North Pacific (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Oscillation). Our results imply the important link between large-scale climate fluctuations, ocean circulation and biogeochemical tracers in the North Pacific.
A Single Column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davies, Laura; Jakob, Christian; Cheung, K.

2013-06-27

Single column models (SCM) are useful testbeds for investigating the parameterisation schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best-estimate large-scale data prescribed. One method to address this uncertainty is to perform ensemble simulations of the SCM. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best-estimate product. This data is then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and 2 cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best-estimatemore » simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best-estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Systematic differences are also apparent in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables. The ensemble is further used to investigate relations between cloud variables and precipitation identifying large differences between CRM and SCM. This study highlights that additional information can be gained by performing ensemble simulations enhancing the information derived from models using the more traditional single best-estimate simulation.« less
An Experts Survey on Sustainability Across Twenty-Seven Extensive European Systems of Grassland Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero, Rafael; Gil, Ángel; Fernández-Santos, Xavier

2008-08-01

European Large Scale Grazing Systems (LSGS) are at a crossroad with environmental, agronomic, and social factors interacting on their future viability. This research assesses the current environmental and socio-economic status of a wide range of European LSGS according to an agreed subset of sustainability criteria and indicators, which have been recognized by corresponding experts and privileged observers on their respective case-study system. A survey questionnaire was drafted containing five main criteria (pastoral use, environmental, economic, social, and market and development), with four conceptual-scored variables (indicators) within each criterion. Descriptive, analytical and clustering statistical techniques helped to draw a synthesis of the main result and to standardize sustainability variables across different biogeographical regions and management situations. The results show large multicollinearity among the 20 variables proposed. This dependence was revealed by the reduction to six main factor-components, which accounted for about 73% of the total variance in responses. Aggregation of point-score indicators across criteria to obtain a sustainability index can be of less policy relevance than responses to specific criteria or indicators. Affinity between case-study systems, as judged by collaborative-expert responses, was not related to biogeographical location, operating livestock sector, or population density in their areas. The results show larger weaknesses and constraints in the economic and social criteria than in the pastoral and environmental criteria, and the large heterogeneity of responses appears in the social criterion.
Empirical Correction to the Likelihood Ratio Statistic for Structural Equation Modeling with Many Variables.

PubMed

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Tian, Yubin; Yanagihara, Hirokazu

2015-06-01

Survey data typically contain many variables. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is commonly used in analyzing such data. The most widely used statistic for evaluating the adequacy of a SEM model is T ML, a slight modification to the likelihood ratio statistic. Under normality assumption, T ML approximately follows a chi-square distribution when the number of observations (N) is large and the number of items or variables (p) is small. However, in practice, p can be rather large while N is always limited due to not having enough participants. Even with a relatively large N, empirical results show that T ML rejects the correct model too often when p is not too small. Various corrections to T ML have been proposed, but they are mostly heuristic. Following the principle of the Bartlett correction, this paper proposes an empirical approach to correct T ML so that the mean of the resulting statistic approximately equals the degrees of freedom of the nominal chi-square distribution. Results show that empirically corrected statistics follow the nominal chi-square distribution much more closely than previously proposed corrections to T ML, and they control type I errors reasonably well whenever N ≥ max(50,2p). The formulations of the empirically corrected statistics are further used to predict type I errors of T ML as reported in the literature, and they perform well.
The inter-rater reliability of estimating the size of burns from various burn area chart drawings.

PubMed

Wachtel, T L; Berry, C C; Wachtel, E E; Frank, H A

2000-03-01

The accuracy and variability of burn size calculations using four Lund and Browder charts currently in clinical use and two Rule of Nine's diagrams were evaluated. The study showed that variability in estimation increased with burn size initially, plateaued in large burns and then decreased slightly in extensive burns. The Rule of Nine's technique often overestimates the burn size and is more variable, but can be performed somewhat faster than the Lund and Browder method. More burn experience leads to less variability in burn area chart drawing estimates. Irregularly shaped burns and burns on the trunk and thighs had greater variability than less irregularly shaped burns or burns on more defined anatomical parts of the body.
Let's talk about sleep: a systematic review of psychological interventions to improve sleep in college students.

PubMed

Friedrich, Anja; Schlarb, Angelika A

2018-02-01

Sleep problems are a common occurrence in college students. Insomnia, nightmares and impaired sleep quality lead to several mental health issues, as well as impaired academic performance. Although different sleep programmes exist, a systematic overview comparing their effectiveness is still missing. This systematic review aims to provide an overview of psychological interventions to improve sleep in college students. Seven databases were searched from November to December 2016 (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cinahl, Cochrane Library, PubMed, OpenSigle). The search string included search terms from three different topics: sleep, intervention and college students. Outcome measures included subjective as well as objective measures and focused on sleep, sleep-related and mental health variables. Twenty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria. They were assigned to four intervention categories: (1) sleep hygiene, (2) cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT), (3) relaxation, mindfulness and hypnotherapy and (4) other psychotherapeutic interventions. Fifteen studies were randomized controlled trials. While sleep hygiene interventions provided small to medium effects, the CBTs showed large effects. The variability of the effect sizes was especially large in the relaxation category, ranging from very small to very large effect sizes. Other psychotherapeutic interventions showed medium effects. CBT approaches provided the best effects for the improvement of different sleep variables in college students. Five studies included insomnia patients. The other three intervention categories also showed promising results with overall medium effects. In the future, CBT should be combined with relaxation techniques, mindfulness and hypnotherapy. Furthermore, the interventions should broaden their target group and include more sleep disorders. © 2017 European Sleep Research Society.
Output variability across animals and levels in a motor system

PubMed Central

Norris, Brian J; Günay, Cengiz; Kueh, Daniel

2018-01-01

Rhythmic behaviors vary across individuals. We investigated the sources of this output variability across a motor system, from the central pattern generator (CPG) to the motor plant. In the bilaterally symmetric leech heartbeat system, the CPG orchestrates two coordinations in the bilateral hearts with different intersegmental phase relations (Δϕ) and periodic side-to-side switches. Population variability is large. We show that the system is precise within a coordination, that differences in repetitions of a coordination contribute little to population output variability, but that differences between bilaterally homologous cells may contribute to some of this variability. Nevertheless, much output variability is likely associated with genetic and life history differences among individuals. Variability of Δϕ were coordination-specific: similar at all levels in one, but significantly lower for the motor pattern than the CPG pattern in the other. Mechanisms that transform CPG output to motor neurons may limit output variability in the motor pattern. PMID:29345614
Spatial Covariability of Temperature and Hydroclimate as a Function of Timescale During the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKay, N.

2017-12-01

As timescale increases from years to centuries, the spatial scale of covariability in the climate system is hypothesized to increase as well. Covarying spatial scales are larger for temperature than for hydroclimate, however, both aspects of the climate system show systematic changes on large-spatial scales on orbital to tectonic timescales. The extent to which this phenomenon is evident in temperature and hydroclimate at centennial timescales is largely unknown. Recent syntheses of multidecadal to century-scale variability in hydroclimate during the past 2k in the Arctic, North America, and Australasia show little spatial covariability in hydroclimate during the Common Era. To determine 1) the evidence for systematic relationships between the spatial scale of climate covariability as a function of timescale, and 2) whether century-scale hydroclimate variability deviates from the relationship between spatial covariability and timescale, we quantify this phenomenon during the Common Era by calculating the e-folding distance in large instrumental and paleoclimate datasets. We calculate this metric of spatial covariability, at different timescales (1, 10 and 100-yr), for a large network of temperature and precipitation observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (n=2447), from v2.0.0 of the PAGES2k temperature database (n=692), and from moisture-sensitive paleoclimate records North America, the Arctic, and the Iso2k project (n = 328). Initial results support the hypothesis that the spatial scale of covariability is larger for temperature, than for precipitation or paleoclimate hydroclimate indicators. Spatially, e-folding distances for temperature are largest at low latitudes and over the ocean. Both instrumental and proxy temperature data show clear evidence for increasing spatial extent as a function of timescale, but this phenomenon is very weak in the hydroclimate data analyzed here. In the proxy hydroclimate data, which are predominantly indicators of effective moisture, e-folding distance increases from annual to decadal timescales, but does not continue to increase to centennial timescales. Future work includes examining additional instrumental and proxy datasets of moisture variability, and extending the analysis to millennial timescales of variability.
[Completeness of notifications of violence perpetrated against adolescents in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

PubMed

Santos, Taciana Mirella Batista Dos; Cardoso, Mirian Domingos; Pitangui, Ana Carolina Rodarti; Santos, Yasmim Gabriella Cardoso; Paiva, Saul Martins; Melo, João Paulo Ramos; Silva, Lygia Maria Pereira

2016-12-01

The scope of this study was to analyze the trend of completeness of the data on violence perpetrated against adolescents registered in the State of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2012. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 5,259 adolescents, who were the victims of violence reported in SINAN-VIVA of the Pernambuco State Health Department. Simple linear regression was used to investigate the trend of completeness of the variables. The percentages of completeness were considered to be dependent variables (Y) and the number of years as independent variables (X). The results show a significant increase of 204% in the number of notifications. However, of the 34 variables analyzed, 27 (79.4%) showed a stationary trend, 6 (17.6%) a downward trend, and only one variable (2.9%) an upward trend. Completeness was considered 'Very Poor' for the variables: Education (47.3%), Full Address (21.3%), Occurrence Time (38%) and Use of Alcohol by the Attacker (47%). Therefore, despite the large increase in the number of notifications, data quality continued to be compromised, hampering a more realistic analysis of this group.
The variability of the rainfall rate as a function of area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jameson, A. R.; Larsen, M. L.

2016-01-01

Distributions of drop sizes can be expressed as DSD = Nt × PSD, where Nt is the total number of drops in a sample and PSD is the frequency distribution of drop diameters (D). Their discovery permitted remote sensing techniques for rainfall estimation using radars and satellites measuring over large domains of several kilometers. Because these techniques depend heavily on higher moments of the PSD, there has been a bias toward attributing the variability of the intrinsic rainfall rates R over areas (σR) to the variability of the PSDs. While this variability does increase up to a point with increasing domain dimension L, the variability of the rainfall rate R also depends upon the variability in the total number of drops Nt. We show that while the importance of PSDs looms large for small domains used in past studies, it is the variability of Nt that dominates the variability of R as L increases to 1 km and beyond. The PSDs contribute to the variability of R through the relative dispersion of χ = D3Vt, where Vt is the terminal fall speed of drops of diameter D. However, the variability of χ is inherently limited because drop sizes and fall speeds are physically limited. In contrast, it is shown that the variance of Nt continuously increases as the domain expands for physical reasons explained below. Over domains larger than around 1 km, it is shown that Nt dominates the variance of the rainfall rate with increasing L regardless of the PSD.
Large-eddy simulation of a turbulent mixing layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansour, N. N.; Ferziger, J. H.; Reynolds, W. C.

1978-01-01

The three dimensional, time dependent (incompressible) vorticity equations were used to simulate numerically the decay of isotropic box turbulence and time developing mixing layers. The vorticity equations were spatially filtered to define the large scale turbulence field, and the subgrid scale turbulence was modeled. A general method was developed to show numerical conservation of momentum, vorticity, and energy. The terms that arise from filtering the equations were treated (for both periodic boundary conditions and no stress boundary conditions) in a fast and accurate way by using fast Fourier transforms. Use of vorticity as the principal variable is shown to produce results equivalent to those obtained by use of the primitive variable equations.

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, Peter E.; Lewis, Matt J.; Freer, Jim; Cooper, David M.; Skinner, Christopher J.; Coulthard, Tom J.

2018-07-01

To mitigate against future changes to estuaries such as water quality, catchment and estuary models can be coupled to simulate the transport of harmful pathogenic viruses, pollutants and nutrients from their terrestrial sources, through the estuary and to the coast. To predict future changes to estuaries, daily mean river flow projections are typically used. We show that this approach cannot resolve higher frequency discharge events that have large impacts to estuarine dilution, contamination and recovery for two contrasting estuaries. We therefore characterise sub-daily scale flow variability and propagate this through an estuary model to provide robust estimates of impacts for the future. River flow data (35-year records at 15-min sampling) were used to characterise variabilities in storm hydrograph shapes and simulate the estuarine response. In particular, we modelled a fast-responding catchment-estuary system (Conwy, UK), where the natural variability in hydrograph shapes generated large variability in estuarine circulation that was not captured when using daily-averaged river forcing. In the extreme, the freshwater plume from a 'flash' flood (lasting <12 h) was underestimated by up to 100% - and the response to nutrient loading was underestimated further still. A model of a slower-responding system (Humber, UK), where hydrographs typically last 2-4 days, showed less variability in estuarine circulation and good approximation with daily-averaged flow forcing. Our result has implications for entire system impact modelling; when we determine future changes to estuaries, some systems will need higher resolution future river flow estimates.
Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.
A large-scale study of the random variability of a coding sequence: a study on the CFTR gene.

PubMed

Modiano, Guido; Bombieri, Cristina; Ciminelli, Bianca Maria; Belpinati, Francesca; Giorgi, Silvia; Georges, Marie des; Scotet, Virginie; Pompei, Fiorenza; Ciccacci, Cinzia; Guittard, Caroline; Audrézet, Marie Pierre; Begnini, Angela; Toepfer, Michael; Macek, Milan; Ferec, Claude; Claustres, Mireille; Pignatti, Pier Franco

2005-02-01

Coding single nucleotide substitutions (cSNSs) have been studied on hundreds of genes using small samples (n(g) approximately 100-150 genes). In the present investigation, a large random European population sample (average n(g) approximately 1500) was studied for a single gene, the CFTR (Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane conductance Regulator). The nonsynonymous (NS) substitutions exhibited, in accordance with previous reports, a mean probability of being polymorphic (q > 0.005), much lower than that of the synonymous (S) substitutions, but they showed a similar rate of subpolymorphic (q < 0.005) variability. This indicates that, in autosomal genes that may have harmful recessive alleles (nonduplicated genes with important functions), genetic drift overwhelms selection in the subpolymorphic range of variability, making disadvantageous alleles behave as neutral. These results imply that the majority of the subpolymorphic nonsynonymous alleles of these genes are selectively negative or even pathogenic.
[Application of Kohonen Self-Organizing Feature Maps in QSAR of human ADMET and kinase data sets].

PubMed

Hegymegi-Barakonyi, Bálint; Orfi, László; Kéri, György; Kövesdi, István

2013-01-01

QSAR predictions have been proven very useful in a large number of studies for drug design, such as kinase inhibitor design as targets for cancer therapy, however the overall predictability often remains unsatisfactory. To improve predictability of ADMET features and kinase inhibitory data, we present a new method using Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) to cluster molecules based on explanatory variables (X) and separate dissimilar ones. We calculated SOFM clusters for a large number of molecules with human ADMET and kinase inhibitory data, and we showed that chemically similar molecules were in the same SOFM cluster, and within such clusters the QSAR models had significantly better predictability. We used also target variables (Y, e.g. ADMET) jointly with X variables to create a novel type of clustering. With our method, cells of loosely coupled XY data could be identified and separated into different model building sets.
A global assessment of climate-water quality relationships in large rivers: an elasticity perspective.

PubMed

Jiang, Jiping; Sharma, Ashish; Sivakumar, Bellie; Wang, Peng

2014-01-15

To uncover climate-water quality relationships in large rivers on a global scale, the present study investigates the climate elasticity of river water quality (CEWQ) using long-term monthly records observed at 14 large rivers. Temperature and precipitation elasticities of 12 water quality parameters, highlighted by N- and P-nutrients, are assessed. General observations on elasticity values show the usefulness of this approach to describe the magnitude of stream water quality responses to climate change, which improves that of simple statistical correlation. Sensitivity type, intensity and variability rank of CEWQ are reported and specific characteristics and mechanism of elasticity of nutrient parameters are also revealed. Among them, the performance of ammonia, total phosphorus-air temperature models, and nitrite, orthophosphorus-precipitation models are the best. Spatial and temporal assessment shows that precipitation elasticity is more variable in space than temperature elasticity and that seasonal variation is more evident for precipitation elasticity than for temperature elasticity. Moreover, both anthropogenic activities and environmental factors are found to impact CEWQ for select variables. The major relationships that can be inferred include: (1) human population has a strong linear correlation with temperature elasticity of turbidity and total phosphorus; and (2) latitude has a strong linear correlation with precipitation elasticity of turbidity and N nutrients. As this work improves our understanding of the relation between climate factors and surface water quality, it is potentially helpful for investigating the effect of climate change on water quality in large rivers, such as on the long-term change of nutrient concentrations. © 2013.
Microphysical Timescales in Clouds and their Application in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

2007-01-01

Independent prognostic variables in cloud-resolving modeling are chosen on the basis of the analysis of microphysical timescales in clouds versus a time step for numerical integration. Two of them are the moist entropy and the total mixing ratio of airborne water with no contributions from precipitating particles. As a result, temperature can be diagnosed easily from those prognostic variables, and cloud microphysics be separated (or modularized) from moist thermodynamics. Numerical comparison experiments show that those prognostic variables can work well while a large time step (e.g., 10 s) is used for numerical integration.
NEPTUNE'S DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE FROM KEPLER K2 OBSERVATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR BROWN DWARF LIGHT CURVE ANALYSES.

PubMed

Simon, Amy A; Rowe, Jason F; Gaulme, Patrick; Hammel, Heidi B; Casewell, Sarah L; Fortney, Jonathan J; Gizis, John E; Lissauer, Jack J; Morales-Juberias, Raul; Orton, Glenn S; Wong, Michael H; Marley, Mark S

2016-02-01

Observations of Neptune with the Kepler Space Telescope yield a 49 day light curve with 98% coverage at a 1 minute cadence. A significant signature in the light curve comes from discrete cloud features. We compare results extracted from the light curve data with contemporaneous disk-resolved imaging of Neptune from the Keck 10-m telescope at 1.65 microns and Hubble Space Telescope visible imaging acquired nine months later. This direct comparison validates the feature latitudes assigned to the K2 light curve periods based on Neptune's zonal wind profile, and confirms observed cloud feature variability. Although Neptune's clouds vary in location and intensity on short and long timescales, a single large discrete storm seen in Keck imaging dominates the K2 and Hubble light curves; smaller or fainter clouds likely contribute to short-term brightness variability. The K2 Neptune light curve, in conjunction with our imaging data, provides context for the interpretation of current and future brown dwarf and extrasolar planet variability measurements. In particular we suggest that the balance between large, relatively stable, atmospheric features and smaller, more transient, clouds controls the character of substellar atmospheric variability. Atmospheres dominated by a few large spots may show inherently greater light curve stability than those which exhibit a greater number of smaller features.
Tropical Indian Ocean Variability Driving Southeast Australian Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, C. C.; England, M. H.; McIntosh, P. C.; Meyers, G. A.; Pook, M. J.; Risbey, J. S.; Sen Gupta, A.; Taschetto, A. S.

2009-04-01

Variability in the tropical Indian Ocean has widespread effects on rainfall in surrounding countries, including East Africa, India and Indonesia. The leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean variability, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode characterized by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of opposite sign in the east and west of the basin with an associated large-scale atmospheric re-organisation. Earlier work has often focused on the positive phase of the IOD. However, we show here that the negative IOD phase is an important driver of regional rainfall variability and multi-year droughts. For southeastern Australia, we show that it is actually a lack of the negative IOD phase, rather than the positive IOD phase or Pacific variability, that provides the most robust explanation for recent drought conditions. Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called "Big Dry". The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show that the "Big Dry" and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by tropical Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of characteristic Indian Ocean temperature conditions that are conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the "Big Dry", its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent above-average temperatures. Implications of recent non-uniform warming trends in the Indian Ocean and how that might affect ocean characteristics and climate in Indian Ocean rim countries are also discussed.
Variations in abundance, diversity and community composition of airborne fungi in swine houses across seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, Priyanka; Woo, Cheolwoon; Yamamoto, Naomichi; Choi, Hong-Lim

2016-11-01

We examined the abundance, diversity and community composition of airborne fungi in swine houses during winter and summer seasons by using quantitative PCR and Illumina HiSeq sequencing of ITS1 region. The abundance of airborne fungi varied significantly only between seasons, while fungal diversity varied significantly both within and between seasons, with both abundance and diversity peaked in winter. The fungal OTU composition was largely structured by the swine house unit and season as well as by their interactions. Of the measured microclimate variables, relative humidity, particulate matters (PMs), ammonia, and stocking density were significantly correlated with fungal OTU composition. The variation in beta diversity was higher within swine houses during summer, which indicates that the airborne fungal community composition was more heterogeneous in summer compared to winter. We also identified several potential allergen/pathogen related fungal genera in swine houses. The total relative abundance of potential allergen/pathogen related fungal genera varied between swine houses in both seasons, and showed positive correlation with PM2.5. Overall, our findings show that the abundance, diversity and composition of airborne fungi are highly variable in swine houses and to a large extent structured by indoor microclimate variables of swine houses.
A GPU-Based Implementation of the Firefly Algorithm for Variable Selection in Multivariate Calibration Problems

PubMed Central

de Paula, Lauro C. M.; Soares, Anderson S.; de Lima, Telma W.; Delbem, Alexandre C. B.; Coelho, Clarimar J.; Filho, Arlindo R. G.

2014-01-01

Several variable selection algorithms in multivariate calibration can be accelerated using Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Among these algorithms, the Firefly Algorithm (FA) is a recent proposed metaheuristic that may be used for variable selection. This paper presents a GPU-based FA (FA-MLR) with multiobjective formulation for variable selection in multivariate calibration problems and compares it with some traditional sequential algorithms in the literature. The advantage of the proposed implementation is demonstrated in an example involving a relatively large number of variables. The results showed that the FA-MLR, in comparison with the traditional algorithms is a more suitable choice and a relevant contribution for the variable selection problem. Additionally, the results also demonstrated that the FA-MLR performed in a GPU can be five times faster than its sequential implementation. PMID:25493625
A GPU-Based Implementation of the Firefly Algorithm for Variable Selection in Multivariate Calibration Problems.

PubMed

de Paula, Lauro C M; Soares, Anderson S; de Lima, Telma W; Delbem, Alexandre C B; Coelho, Clarimar J; Filho, Arlindo R G

2014-01-01

Several variable selection algorithms in multivariate calibration can be accelerated using Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Among these algorithms, the Firefly Algorithm (FA) is a recent proposed metaheuristic that may be used for variable selection. This paper presents a GPU-based FA (FA-MLR) with multiobjective formulation for variable selection in multivariate calibration problems and compares it with some traditional sequential algorithms in the literature. The advantage of the proposed implementation is demonstrated in an example involving a relatively large number of variables. The results showed that the FA-MLR, in comparison with the traditional algorithms is a more suitable choice and a relevant contribution for the variable selection problem. Additionally, the results also demonstrated that the FA-MLR performed in a GPU can be five times faster than its sequential implementation.
Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T.; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. PMID:27055028
Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P; Rötter, Reimund P; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.
Race Factors Affecting Performance Times in Elite Long-Track Speed Skating.

PubMed

Noordhof, Dionne A; Mulder, Roy C; de Koning, Jos J; Hopkins, Will G

2016-05-01

Analysis of sport performance can provide effects of environmental and other venue-specific factors in addition to estimates of within-athlete variability between competitions, which determines smallest worthwhile effects. To analyze elite long-track speed-skating events. Log-transformed performance times were analyzed with a mixed linear model that estimated percentage mean effects for altitude, barometric pressure, type of rink, and competition importance. In addition, coefficients of variation representing residual venue-related differences and within-athlete variability between races within clusters spanning ~8 d were determined. Effects and variability were assessed with magnitude-based inference. A 1000-m increase in altitude resulted in very large mean performance improvements of 2.8% in juniors and 2.1% in seniors. An increase in barometric pressure of 100 hPa resulted in a moderate reduction in performance of 1.1% for juniors but an unclear effect for seniors. Only juniors competed at open rinks, resulting in a very large reduction in performance of 3.4%. Juniors and seniors showed small performance improvements (0.4% and 0.3%) at the more important competitions. After accounting for these effects, residual venue-related variability was still moderate to large. The within-athlete within-cluster race-to-race variability was 0.3-1.3%, with a small difference in variability between male (0.8%) and female juniors (1.0%) and no difference between male and female seniors (both 0.6%). The variability in performance times of skaters is similar to that of athletes in other sports in which air or water resistance limits speed. A performance enhancement of 0.1-0.4% by top-10 athletes is necessary to increase medal-winning chances by 10%.
A two-level approach to large mixed-integer programs with application to cogeneration in energy-efficient buildings

DOE PAGES

Lin, Fu; Leyffer, Sven; Munson, Todd

2016-04-12

We study a two-stage mixed-integer linear program (MILP) with more than 1 million binary variables in the second stage. We develop a two-level approach by constructing a semi-coarse model that coarsens with respect to variables and a coarse model that coarsens with respect to both variables and constraints. We coarsen binary variables by selecting a small number of prespecified on/off profiles. We aggregate constraints by partitioning them into groups and taking convex combination over each group. With an appropriate choice of coarsened profiles, the semi-coarse model is guaranteed to find a feasible solution of the original problem and hence providesmore » an upper bound on the optimal solution. We show that solving a sequence of coarse models converges to the same upper bound with proven finite steps. This is achieved by adding violated constraints to coarse models until all constraints in the semi-coarse model are satisfied. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in cogeneration for buildings. Here, the coarsened models allow us to obtain good approximate solutions at a fraction of the time required by solving the original problem. Extensive numerical experiments show that the two-level approach scales to large problems that are beyond the capacity of state-of-the-art commercial MILP solvers.« less
A two-level approach to large mixed-integer programs with application to cogeneration in energy-efficient buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Fu; Leyffer, Sven; Munson, Todd

We study a two-stage mixed-integer linear program (MILP) with more than 1 million binary variables in the second stage. We develop a two-level approach by constructing a semi-coarse model that coarsens with respect to variables and a coarse model that coarsens with respect to both variables and constraints. We coarsen binary variables by selecting a small number of prespecified on/off profiles. We aggregate constraints by partitioning them into groups and taking convex combination over each group. With an appropriate choice of coarsened profiles, the semi-coarse model is guaranteed to find a feasible solution of the original problem and hence providesmore » an upper bound on the optimal solution. We show that solving a sequence of coarse models converges to the same upper bound with proven finite steps. This is achieved by adding violated constraints to coarse models until all constraints in the semi-coarse model are satisfied. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in cogeneration for buildings. Here, the coarsened models allow us to obtain good approximate solutions at a fraction of the time required by solving the original problem. Extensive numerical experiments show that the two-level approach scales to large problems that are beyond the capacity of state-of-the-art commercial MILP solvers.« less
A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

2018-05-01

In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.
High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less
Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges.

PubMed

Mellin, C; Mouillot, D; Kulbicki, M; McClanahan, T R; Vigliola, L; Bradshaw, C J A; Brainard, R E; Chabanet, P; Edgar, G J; Fordham, D A; Friedlander, A M; Parravicini, V; Sequeira, A M M; Stuart-Smith, R D; Wantiez, L; Caley, M J

2016-02-03

Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions.
Patterns of variations in large pelagic fish: A comparative approach between the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbineau, A.; Rouyer, T.; Fromentin, J.-M.; Cazelles, B.; Fonteneau, A.; Ménard, F.

2010-07-01

Catch data of large pelagic fish such as tuna, swordfish and billfish are highly variable ranging from short to long term. Based on fisheries data, these time series are noisy and reflect mixed information on exploitation (targeting, strategy, fishing power), population dynamics (recruitment, growth, mortality, migration, etc.), and environmental forcing (local conditions or dominant climate patterns). In this work, we investigated patterns of variation of large pelagic fish (i.e. yellowfin tuna, bigeye tuna, swordfish and blue marlin) in Japanese longliners catch data from 1960 to 2004. We performed wavelet analyses on the yearly time series of each fish species in each biogeographic province of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. In addition, we carried out cross-wavelet analyses between these biological time series and a large-scale climatic index, i.e. the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Results showed that the biogeographic province was the most important factor structuring the patterns of variability of Japanese catch time series. Relationships between the SOI and the fish catches in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also pointed out the role of climatic variability for structuring patterns of variation of catch time series. This work finally confirmed that Japanese longline CPUE data poorly reflect the underlying population dynamics of tunas.

Enhanced recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.
Does the Variability of Evoked Tympanic Membrane Displacement Data (V m) Increase as the Magnitude of the Pulse Amplitude Increases?

PubMed

Sharif, Sammy J; Campbell-Bell, Cherith M; Bulters, Diederik O; Marchbanks, Robert J; Birch, Anthony A

2018-01-01

Evoked tympanic membrane displacement (TMD) measurements, quantified by V m , record small volume changes in the ear canal following stimulation of the acoustic reflex. V m shows a correlation with intracranial pressure (ICP) and has been proposed as an option to non-invasively measure ICP. The spontaneous pulsing of the tympanic membrane, driven by the cardiovascular pulse, may contaminate the recordings and contribute to high measurement variability in some subjects. This study hypothesised that the larger the spontaneous vascular pulse, the larger the variability in V m . Spontaneous and evoked TMD data from each ear in the sitting and supine position were recorded from 100 healthy volunteers using the MMS-14 CCFP analyser. ECG was also recorded to identify each heartbeat. Using bespoke software written in Matlab, spontaneous data were analysed to produce average pulse amplitude (PA) waveforms and evoked data were analysed to calculate average V m and its standard deviation. Averaged spontaneous PA was plotted against V m variability and Pearson's correlation coefficient was calculated to test for a significant linear relationship. There was a strong positive correlation between PA and V m variability in all conditions: left sitting, r = 0.758; left supine, r = 0.665; right sitting, r = 0.755; right supine, r = 0.513. All were significant at p < 0.001. This study shows that large V m variability is associated with a large spontaneous vascular pulse. This suggests that efforts to reduce vascular pulsing from recordings, either by a subtraction technique during post-processing or ECG-gating of the evoking stimulus, may improve reliability of the V m measurement.
Southern Ocean monthly wave fields for austral winters 1985-1988 by Geosat radar altimeter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Josberger, E.G.; Mognard, N.M.

1996-01-01

Four years of monthly averaged wave height fields for the austral winters 19851988 derived from the Geosat altimeter data show a spatial variability of the scale of 500-1000 km that varies monthly and annually. This variability is superimposed on the zonal patterns surrounding the Antarctic continent and characteristic of the climatology derived from the U.S. Navy [1992] Marine Climatic Atlas of the World. The location and the intensity of these large-scale features, which are not found in the climatological fields, exhibit strong monthly and yearly variations. A global underestimation of the climatological mean wave heights by more than l m is also found over large regions of the Southern Ocean. The largest monthly averaged significant wave heights are above 5 m and are found during August of every year in the Indian Ocean, south of 40??S. The monthly wave fields show more variability in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans than in the Indian Ocean. The Seasat data from 1978 and the Geosat data from 1985 and 1988 show an eastward rotation of the largest wave heights. However, this rotation is absent in 1986 and 1987; the former was a year of unusually low sea states, and the latter was a year of unusually high sea states, which suggests a link to the El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation event of 1986. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.
Deconstructed transverse mass variables

DOE PAGES

Ismail, Ahmed; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Virzi, Joseph S.; ...

2015-04-02

Traditional searches for R-parity conserving natural supersymmetry (SUSY) require large transverse mass and missing energy cuts to separate the signal from large backgrounds. SUSY models with compressed spectra inherently produce signal events with small amounts of missing energy that are hard to explore. We use this difficulty to motivate the construction of "deconstructed" transverse mass variables which are designed preserve information on both the norm and direction of the missing momentum. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these variables in searches for the pair production of supersymmetric top-quark partners which subsequently decay into a final state with an isolated lepton,more » jets and missing energy. We show that the use of deconstructed transverse mass variables extends the accessible compressed spectra parameter space beyond the region probed by traditional methods. The parameter space can further be expanded to neutralino masses that are larger than the difference between the stop and top masses. In addition, we also discuss how these variables allow for novel searches of single stop production, in order to directly probe unconstrained stealth stops in the small stop-and neutralino-mass regime. We also demonstrate the utility of these variables for generic gluino and stop searches in all-hadronic final states. Overall, we demonstrate that deconstructed transverse variables are essential to any search wanting to maximize signal separation from the background when the signal has undetected particles in the final state.« less
Water availability as a driver of spatial and temporal variability in vegetation in the La Mancha plain (Spain): Implications for the land-surface energy, water and carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Los, Sietse

2017-04-01

Vegetation is water limited in large areas of Spain and therefore a close link exists between vegetation greenness observed from satellite and moisture availability. Here we exploit this link to infer spatial and temporal variability in moisture from MODIS NDVI data and thermal data. Discrepancies in the precipitation - vegetation relationship indicate areas with an alternative supply of water (i.e. not rainfall), this can be natural where moisture is supplied by upwelling groundwater, or can be artificial where crops are irrigated. As a result spatial and temporal variability in vegetation in the La Mancha Plain appears closely linked to topography, geology, rainfall and land use. Crop land shows large variability in year-to-year vegetation greenness; for some areas this variability is linked to variability in rainfall but in other cases this variability is linked to irrigation. The differences in irrigation treatment within one plant functional type, in this case crops, will lead to errors in land surface models when ignored. The magnitude of these effects on the energy, carbon and water balance are assessed at the scale of 250 m to 200 km. Estimating the water balance correctly is of particular important since in some areas in Spain more water is used for irrigation than is supplemented by rainfall.
Constraints on the temperature inhomogeneity in quasar accretion discs from the ultraviolet-optical spectral variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokubo, Mitsuru

2015-05-01

The physical mechanisms of the quasar ultraviolet (UV)-optical variability are not well understood despite the long history of observations. Recently, Dexter & Agol presented a model of quasar UV-optical variability, which assumes large local temperature fluctuations in the quasar accretion discs. This inhomogeneous accretion disc model is claimed to describe not only the single-band variability amplitude, but also microlensing size constraints and the quasar composite spectral shape. In this work, we examine the validity of the inhomogeneous accretion disc model in the light of quasar UV-optical spectral variability by using five-band multi-epoch light curves for nearly 9 000 quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 region. By comparing the values of the intrinsic scatter σint of the two-band magnitude-magnitude plots for the SDSS quasar light curves and for the simulated light curves, we show that Dexter & Agol's inhomogeneous accretion disc model cannot explain the tight inter-band correlation often observed in the SDSS quasar light curves. This result leads us to conclude that the local temperature fluctuations in the accretion discs are not the main driver of the several years' UV-optical variability of quasars, and consequently, that the assumption that the quasar accretion discs have large localized temperature fluctuations is not preferred from the viewpoint of the UV-optical spectral variability.
Finite element analysis of 6 large PMMA skull reconstructions: A multi-criteria evaluation approach

PubMed Central

Ridwan-Pramana, Angela; Marcián, Petr; Borák, Libor; Narra, Nathaniel; Forouzanfar, Tymour; Wolff, Jan

2017-01-01

In this study 6 pre-operative designs for PMMA based reconstructions of cranial defects were evaluated for their mechanical robustness using finite element modeling. Clinical experience and engineering principles were employed to create multiple plan options, which were subsequently computationally analyzed for mechanically relevant parameters under 50N loads: stress, strain and deformation in various components of the assembly. The factors assessed were: defect size, location and shape. The major variable in the cranioplasty assembly design was the arrangement of the fixation plates. An additional study variable introduced was the location of the 50N load within the implant area. It was found that in smaller defects, it was simpler to design a symmetric distribution of plates and under limited variability in load location it was possible to design an optimal for expected loads. However, for very large defects with complex shapes, the variability in the load locations introduces complications to the intuitive design of the optimal assembly. The study shows that it can be beneficial to incorporate multi design computational analyses to decide upon the most optimal plan for a clinical case. PMID:28609471
Finite element analysis of 6 large PMMA skull reconstructions: A multi-criteria evaluation approach.

PubMed

Ridwan-Pramana, Angela; Marcián, Petr; Borák, Libor; Narra, Nathaniel; Forouzanfar, Tymour; Wolff, Jan

2017-01-01

In this study 6 pre-operative designs for PMMA based reconstructions of cranial defects were evaluated for their mechanical robustness using finite element modeling. Clinical experience and engineering principles were employed to create multiple plan options, which were subsequently computationally analyzed for mechanically relevant parameters under 50N loads: stress, strain and deformation in various components of the assembly. The factors assessed were: defect size, location and shape. The major variable in the cranioplasty assembly design was the arrangement of the fixation plates. An additional study variable introduced was the location of the 50N load within the implant area. It was found that in smaller defects, it was simpler to design a symmetric distribution of plates and under limited variability in load location it was possible to design an optimal for expected loads. However, for very large defects with complex shapes, the variability in the load locations introduces complications to the intuitive design of the optimal assembly. The study shows that it can be beneficial to incorporate multi design computational analyses to decide upon the most optimal plan for a clinical case.
Biodiversity in canopy-forming algae: Structure and spatial variability of the Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, L.; Bonaviri, C.; Castelli, A.; Ceccherelli, G.; Costa, G.; Curini-Galletti, M.; Langeneck, J.; Manconi, R.; Montefalcone, M.; Pipitone, C.; Rosso, A.; Pinna, S.

2018-07-01

In the Mediterranean Sea, Cystoseira species are the most important canopy-forming algae in shallow rocky bottoms, hosting high biodiverse sessile and mobile communities. A large-scale study has been carried out to investigate the structure of the Cystoseira-dominated assemblages at different spatial scales and to test the hypotheses that alpha and beta diversity of the assemblages, the abundance and the structure of epiphytic macroalgae, epilithic macroalgae, sessile macroinvertebrates and mobile macroinvertebrates associated to Cystoseira beds changed among scales. A hierarchical sampling design in a total of five sites across the Mediterranean Sea (Croatia, Montenegro, Sardinia, Tuscany and Balearic Islands) was used. A total of 597 taxa associated to Cystoseira beds were identified with a mean number per sample ranging between 141.1 ± 6.6 (Tuscany) and 173.9 ± 8.5(Sardinia). A high variability at small (among samples) and large (among sites) scale was generally highlighted, but the studied assemblages showed different patterns of spatial variability. The relative importance of the different scales of spatial variability should be considered to optimize sampling designs and propose monitoring plans of this habitat.
Inter-individual Variability in Soccer Players of Different Age Groups Playing Different Positions

PubMed Central

Nikolaidis, Pantelis; Ziv, Gal; Lidor, Ronnie; Arnon, Michal

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was twofold: (a) to profile physical characteristics and motor abilities of three age groups of soccer players – under 14 years, 14–17, and over 17, playing different positions – goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders, and forwards; and (b) to examine the inter-individual variability among the players in each age group in all physical and physiological measurements performed in the study. In addition, anthropometric, power, strength, and flexibility tests were administered. Findings showed large inter-individual variability in all three age groups and in all playing positions. Differences between playing positions were found only in the 14–17 group (body mass) and in the over-17 group (body height, body mass, fat-free mass, and mean power in the Wingate Anaerobic Test). Due to the observed large inter-individual variability, it was concluded that the findings obtained in the physical and physiological tests should be interpreted with caution when attempting to differentiate between successful and unsuccessful soccer players, as well as when trying to predict future success in soccer. PMID:25031689
Investigating the dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and clouds on the spatial scale of large-scale forcing at SGP [Investigating the scale dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and cloud by using gridded forcing data at SGP

DOE PAGES

Tang, Shuaiqi; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Shaocheng

2017-08-05

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version ofmore » the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.« less
Noisy Oscillations in the Actin Cytoskeleton of Chemotactic Amoeba.

PubMed

Negrete, Jose; Pumir, Alain; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Westendorf, Christian; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2016-09-30

Biological systems with their complex biochemical networks are known to be intrinsically noisy. Here we investigate the dynamics of actin polymerization of amoeboid cells, which are close to the onset of oscillations. We show that the large phenotypic variability in the polymerization dynamics can be accurately captured by a generic nonlinear oscillator model in the presence of noise. We determine the relative role of the noise with a single dimensionless, experimentally accessible parameter, thus providing a quantitative description of the variability in a population of cells. Our approach, which rests on a generic description of a system close to a Hopf bifurcation and includes the effect of noise, can characterize the dynamics of a large class of noisy systems close to an oscillatory instability.
Noisy Oscillations in the Actin Cytoskeleton of Chemotactic Amoeba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrete, Jose; Pumir, Alain; Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Westendorf, Christian; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2016-09-01

Biological systems with their complex biochemical networks are known to be intrinsically noisy. Here we investigate the dynamics of actin polymerization of amoeboid cells, which are close to the onset of oscillations. We show that the large phenotypic variability in the polymerization dynamics can be accurately captured by a generic nonlinear oscillator model in the presence of noise. We determine the relative role of the noise with a single dimensionless, experimentally accessible parameter, thus providing a quantitative description of the variability in a population of cells. Our approach, which rests on a generic description of a system close to a Hopf bifurcation and includes the effect of noise, can characterize the dynamics of a large class of noisy systems close to an oscillatory instability.
Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

PubMed Central

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID:27761304
Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001-2008, 1: zonal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Horii, T.; Masumoto, Y.; Mizuno, K.

2017-08-01

The observed variability of zonal currents (ZC) at the Equator, 90°E shows a strong seasonal cycle in the near-surface 40-350 m water column with periodic east-west reversals most pronounced at semiannual frequency. Superposed on this, a strong intraseasonal variability of 30-90 day periodicity is also prominently seen in the near-surface layer (40-80 m) almost throughout the year with the only exception of February-March. An eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is present in the depth range of 80-160 m during March-April and October-November. The observed intraseasonal variability in the near-surface layer is primarily determined by the equatorial zonal westerly wind bursts (WWBs) through local frictional coupling between the zonal flow in the surface layer and surface zonal winds and shows large interannual variability. The eastward flowing EUC maintained by the ZPG set up by the east-west slope of the thermocline remotely controlled by the zonal wind (ZW) and zonally propagating wave fields also shows significant interannual variability. This observed variability on interannual time scales appears to be controlled by the corresponding variability in the alongshore winds off the Somalia coast during the preceding boreal winter, the ZW field along the equator, and the associated zonally propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer thickness (BLT) effects also shows a significant influence on the ZC field on intraseasonal time scale. Interestingly, among all the 8 years (2001-2008), relatively weaker annual cycle is seen in both ZC in the 40-350 m water column and boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) only during 2001 and 2008 along the equator caused through propagating wave dynamics.
Productivity in the barents sea--response to recent climate variability.

PubMed

Dalpadado, Padmini; Arrigo, Kevin R; Hjøllo, Solfrid S; Rey, Francisco; Ingvaldsen, Randi B; Sperfeld, Erik; van Dijken, Gert L; Stige, Leif C; Olsen, Are; Ottersen, Geir

2014-01-01

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region.
Dynamical variability in Saturn Equatorial Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Hueso, R.; Rojas, J. F.; French, R. G.; Grupo Ciencias Planetarias Team

2003-05-01

Historical ground-based and recent HST observations show that Saturn's Equatorial Atmosphere is the region where the most intense large-scale dynamical variability took place at cloud level in the planet. Large-scale convective storms (nicknamed the ``Great White Spots") occurred in 1876, 1933 and 1990. The best studied case (the 1990 storm), produced a dramatic change in the cloud aspect in the years following the outburst of September 1990. Subsequently, a new large storm formed in 1994 and from 1996 to 2002 our HST observations showed periods of unusual cloud activity in the southern part of the Equator. This contrast with the aspect observed during the Voyager 1 and 2 encounters in 1980 and 1981 when the Equator was calm, except for some mid-scale plume-like features seen in 1981. Cloud-tracking of the features have revealed a dramatic slow down in the equatorial winds from maximum velocities of ˜ 475 m/s in 1980-1981 to ˜ 275 m/s during 1996-2002, as we have recently reported in Nature, Vol. 423, 623 (2003). We discuss the possibility that seasonal and ring-shadowing effects are involved in generating this activity and variability. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Spanish MCYT PNAYA 2000-0932. SPH acknowledges a PhD fellowship from the Spanish MECD and RH a post-doc fellowship from Gobierno Vasco. RGF was supported in part by NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program NAG5-10197 and STSCI Grant GO-08660.01A.
Large-scale variation in subsurface stream biofilms: a cross-regional comparison of metabolic function and community similarity.

PubMed

Findlay, S; Sinsabaugh, R L

2006-10-01

We examined bacterial metabolic activity and community similarity in shallow subsurface stream sediments distributed across three regions of the eastern United States to assess whether there were parallel changes in functional and structural attributes at this large scale. Bacterial growth, oxygen consumption, and a suite of extracellular enzyme activities were assayed to describe functional variability. Community similarity was assessed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) patterns. There were significant differences in streamwater chemistry, metabolic activity, and bacterial growth among regions with, for instance, twofold higher bacterial production in streams near Baltimore, MD, compared to Hubbard Brook, NH. Five of eight extracellular enzymes showed significant differences among regions. Cluster analyses of individual streams by metabolic variables showed clear groups with significant differences in representation of sites from different regions among groups. Clustering of sites based on randomly amplified polymorphic DNA banding resulted in groups with generally less internal similarity although there were still differences in distribution of regional sites. There was a marginally significant (p = 0.09) association between patterns based on functional and structural variables. There were statistically significant but weak (r2 approximately 30%) associations between landcover and measures of both structure and function. These patterns imply a large-scale organization of biofilm communities and this structure may be imposed by factor(s) such as landcover and covariates such as nutrient concentrations, which are known to also cause differences in macrobiota of stream ecosystems.
Productivity in the Barents Sea - Response to Recent Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Dalpadado, Padmini; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Hjøllo, Solfrid S.; Rey, Francisco; Ingvaldsen, Randi B.; Sperfeld, Erik; van Dijken, Gert L.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Are; Ottersen, Geir

2014-01-01

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region. PMID:24788513
Individual differences affecting caffeine intake. Analysis of consumption behaviours for different times of day and caffeine sources.

PubMed

Penolazzi, Barbara; Natale, Vincenzo; Leone, Luigi; Russo, Paolo Maria

2012-06-01

The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the individual variables contributing to determine the high variability in the consumption behaviours of caffeine, a psychoactive substance which is still poorly investigated in comparison with other drugs. The effects of a large set of specific personality traits (i.e., Impulsivity, Sensation Seeking, Anxiety, Reward Sensitivity and Circadian Preference) were compared along with some relevant socio-demographic variables (i.e., gender and age) and cigarette smoking behaviour. Analyses revealed that daily caffeine intake was significantly higher for males, older people, participants smoking more cigarettes and showing higher scores on Impulsivity, Sensation Seeking and a facet of Reward Sensitivity. However, more detailed analyses showed that different patterns of individual variables predicted caffeine consumption when the times of day and the caffeine sources were considered. The present results suggest that such detailed analyses are required to detect the critical predictive variables that could be obscured when only total caffeine intake during the entire day is considered. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring phenological variability from satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Bradley C.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Vanderzee, D.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Merchant, James W.; Ohlen, Donald O.

1994-01-01

Vegetation phenological phenomena are closely related to seasonal dynamics of the lower atmosphere and are therefore important elements in global models and vegetation monitoring. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor offer a means of efficiently and objectively evaluating phenological characteristics over large areas. Twelve metrics linked to key phenological events were computed based on time-series NDVI data collected from 1989 to 1992 over the conterminous United States. These measures include the onset of greenness, time of peak NDVI, maximum NDVI, rate of greenup, rate of senescence, and integrated NDVI. Measures of central tendency and variability of the measures were computed and analyzed for various land cover types. Results from the analysis showed strong coincidence between the satellite-derived metrics and predicted phenological characteristics. In particular, the metrics identified interannual variability of spring wheat in North Dakota, characterized the phenology of four types of grasslands, and established the phenological consistency of deciduous and coniferous forests. These results have implications for large- area land cover mapping and monitoring. The utility of re- motely sensed data as input to vegetation mapping is demonstrated by showing the distinct phenology of several land cover types. More stable information contained in ancillary data should be incorporated into the mapping process, particularly in areas with high phenological variability. In a regional or global monitoring system, an increase in variability in a region may serve as a signal to perform more detailed land cover analysis with higher resolution imagery.
Large Scale Variability of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Arctic and Peripheral Seas: Relationships with Sea Ice, Temperature, Clouds, and Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Cota, Glenn F.

2004-01-01

Spatially detailed satellite data of mean color, sea ice concentration, surface temperature, clouds, and wind have been analyzed to quantify and study the large scale regional and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic and peripheral seas from 1998 to 2002. In the Arctic basin, phytoplankton chlorophyll displays a large symmetry with the Eastern Arctic having about fivefold higher concentrations than those of the Western Arctic. Large monthly and yearly variability is also observed in the peripheral seas with the largest blooms occurring in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and the Barents Sea during spring. There is large interannual and seasonal variability in biomass with average chlorophyll concentrations in 2002 and 2001 being higher than earlier years in spring and summer. The seasonality in the latitudinal distribution of blooms is also very different such that the North Atlantic is usually most expansive in spring while the North Pacific is more extensive in autumn. Environmental factors that influence phytoplankton growth were examined, and results show relatively high negative correlation with sea ice retreat and strong positive correlation with temperature in early spring. Plankton growth, as indicated by biomass accumulation, in the Arctic and subarctic increases up to a threshold surface temperature of about 276-277 degree K (3-4 degree C) beyond which the concentrations start to decrease suggesting an optimal temperature or nutrient depletion. The correlation with clouds is significant in some areas but negligible in other areas, while the correlations with wind speed and its components are generally weak. The effects of clouds and winds are less predictable with weekly climatologies because of unknown effects of averaging variable and intermittent physical forcing (e.g. over storm event scales with mixing and upwelling of nutrients) and the time scales of acclimation by the phytoplankton.
Subsidence driving forces in large Delta Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grall, C.; Steckler, M. S.

2017-12-01

Recent studies show large variability in subsidence rates among large delta plains that directly impact coastal management of these highly vulnerable environments. Observations show both significant spatial variation in subsidence across each delta, as well as large differences in magnitude between different deltas. This variability raises the question of what are the driving forces that control subsidence in large delta plains that this study aims to address. Subsidence and sediment compaction is studied in 4 end-member large Delta Plains: the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Mekong, the Mississippi and the Nile. Those large delta plains drastically contrast in subsidence rates (from values to several mm/yr to several cm/yr), in the nature of the sediment (notably in clay and organic matter content), and in the volume of sediment supplied by the large rivers that feed those coastal environments. The volume of sediment deposited in each delta plain during the Holocene is estimated and the compaction of the underlying sedimentary column is computed by using a backstripping approach. Sediment compaction behaviors are defined accordingly to the observed clay, silt and organic contents, and the rate of subsidence associated with compaction is determined. Results suggest that about 2/3 of observed Holocene subsidence may be associated with the mechanical and chemical compaction of the underlying sedimentary column due to the load of sediment deposited. The compaction appears to be significantly higher in delta plains characterized by a high sediment input and a high organic matter and clay content. Thus, the observed subsidence rates in the (muddy) Mekong delta appear to be one order of magnitude higher than other delta plains. In contrast, subsidence rates are modest in the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Mississippi and the Nile delta plains, except away from the major rivers where deposits are muddier.
Heart rate variability indicates emotional value during pro-social economic laboratory decisions with large external validity.

PubMed

Fooken, Jonas

2017-03-10

The present study investigates the external validity of emotional value measured in economic laboratory experiments by using a physiological indicator of stress, heart rate variability (HRV). While there is ample evidence supporting the external validity of economic experiments, there is little evidence comparing the magnitude of internal levels of emotional stress during decision making with external stress. The current study addresses this gap by comparing the magnitudes of decision stress experienced in the laboratory with the stress from outside the laboratory. To quantify a large change in HRV, measures observed in the laboratory during decision-making are compared to the difference between HRV during a university exam and other mental activity for the same individuals in and outside of the laboratory. The results outside the laboratory inform about the relevance of laboratory findings in terms of their relative magnitude. Results show that psychologically induced HRV changes observed in the laboratory, particularly in connection with social preferences, correspond to large effects outside. This underscores the external validity of laboratory findings and shows the magnitude of emotional value connected to pro-social economic decisions in the laboratory.
Climate-forced variability of suboxia and associated N-loses in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Gruber, N.; Long, M. C.; Vogt, M.

2017-12-01

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification. In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here, we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model over the period 1960 to 2009 to show that Pacific ODZ structures and their associated rates of N-loss are subject to strong climate forced variability and change. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large interannual variations in the rate of water column denitrification such that mature La Niña conditions exhibit peak denitrification rates that are up to 70% higher than the mean rates, and vice versa during El Niños. At the same time, we simulate large decadal trends in the rate of Pacific N-loss, which decreases by 10 Tg y-1 from the 1960s to the 1980s and subsequently increases by 30 Tg y-1 towards 2009. We demonstrate that this large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export. Finally, we show that the decadal trends in denitrification are recorded by the isotopic signature of particulate organic nitrogen in the ETP but that the interpretation of the signals is non trivial, reflecting both physical and biogeochemical changes as well as contamination by atmospheric pollutants.
Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions and its tropospheric variability over Pakistan using satellite-sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ul-Haq, Zia; Rana, Asim Daud; Ali, Muhammad; Mahmood, Khalid; Tariq, Salman; Qayyum, Zarmina

2015-08-01

This study presents major anthropogenic sources of carbon monoxide (CO) in Pakistan and discusses the spatio-temporal variability of tropospheric CO over Pakistan and neighboring regions of Afghanistan, India and Iran for a period from 2003 to 2012 using satellite-sensed (AIRS/AMSU) data. The results show a large spatio-temporal variability of CO over the study region mostly associated with anthropogenic activities such as crop residue burning, vehicular transport, and electricity and energy generation, and local meteorology. The annual mean value of tropospheric CO is observed to be 115 ± 2 ppbv that remains almost steady during the study period with decadal increase of only 2%. Due to more anthropogenic emissions of CO and its transport, the eastern zone shows a higher average value of 122 ± 2 ppbv with 2.7% decadal increase than the western zone (111 ± 3 ppbv with 1.4% decadal increase). Elevated concentrations of CO have been observed over the Indo-Gangetic Basin, Lahore, Karachi, and Delhi. During the study period large fluctuations in CO mean monthly values are found ranging from 99 ppbv to 131 ppbv. The fact that, in spite of a large increase in the CO emissions from 2003 to 2012, its average concentration remains almost stable indicates that a large scale regional transport contributes substantially to the tropospheric CO. Carbon monoxide concentrations exhibit a strong seasonal pattern with maximum amplitude in spring and minimum in autumn. July is found to have the highest decadal increasing trend of 13% followed by August at 8%, whereas May has the highest decreasing trend of -8% followed by November at -4.4%.
External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otterå, Odd Helge; Bentsen, Mats; Drange, Helge; Suo, Lingling

2010-10-01

Instrumental records, proxy data and climate modelling show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variations, with potential impacts on regional climate. To understand the observed variability and to gauge any potential for climate predictions it is essential to identify the physical mechanisms that lead to this variability, and to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal variability modes. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to show that the phasing of the multidecadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic during the past 600 years is, to a large degree, governed by changes in the external solar and volcanic forcings. We find that volcanoes play a particularly important part in the phasing of the multidecadal variability through their direct influence on tropical sea-surface temperatures, on the leading mode of northern-hemisphere atmosphere circulation and on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We suggest that the implications of our findings for decadal climate prediction are twofold: because volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted a decade in advance, longer-term climate predictability may prove challenging, whereas the systematic post-eruption changes in ocean and atmosphere may hold promise for shorter-term climate prediction.
Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O' Riordan, Michael; Pe'er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C.

2017-07-01

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ-ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.
Analysis of Intra- and Intersubject Variability in Oral Drug Absorption in Human Bioequivalence Studies of 113 Generic Products.

PubMed

Sugihara, Masahisa; Takeuchi, Susumu; Sugita, Masaru; Higaki, Kazutaka; Kataoka, Makoto; Yamashita, Shinji

2015-12-07

In this study, the data of 113 human bioequivalence (BE) studies of immediate release (IR) formulations of 74 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) conducted at Sawai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., was analyzed to understand the factors affecting intra- and intersubject variabilities in oral drug absorption. The ANOVA CV (%) calculated from area under the time-concentration curve (AUC) in each BE study was used as an index of intrasubject variability (Vintra), and the relative standard deviation (%) in AUC was used as that of intersubject variability (Vinter). Although no significant correlation was observed between Vintra and Vinter of all drugs, Vintra of class 3 drugs was found to increase in association with a decrease in drug permeability (P(eff)). Since the absorption of class 3 drugs was rate-limited by the permeability, it was suggested that, for such drugs, the low P(eff) might be a risk factor to cause a large intrasubject variability. To consider the impact of poor water solubility on the variability in BE study, a parameter of P(eff)/Do (Do; dose number) was defined to discriminate the solubility-limited and dissolution-rate-limited absorption of class 2 drugs. It was found that the class 2 drugs with a solubility-limited absorption (P(eff)/Do < 0.149 × 10(-4) cm/s) showed high intrasubject variability. Furthermore, as a reason for high intra- or intersubject variability in AUC for class 1 drugs, effects of drug metabolizing enzymes were investigated. It was demonstrated that intrasubject variability was high for drugs metabolized by CYP3A4 while intersubject variability was high for drugs metabolized by CYP2D6. For CYP3A4 substrate drugs, the Km value showed the significant relation with Vintra, indicating that the affinity to the enzyme can be a parameter to predict the risk of high intrasubject variability. In conclusion, by analyzing the in house data of human BE study, low permeability, solubility-limited absorption, and high affinity to CYP3A4 are identified as risk factors for high intrasubject variability in oral drug absorption. This information is of importance to design the human BE study for oral drug products containing APIs with a risk of large intrasubject variability in oral absorption.
Predictors of Spoken Language Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Patrick C. M.; Ettlinger, Marc

2011-01-01

We report two sets of experiments showing that the large individual variability in language learning success in adults can be attributed to neurophysiological, neuroanatomical, cognitive, and perceptual factors. In the first set of experiments, native English-speaking adults learned to incorporate lexically meaningfully pitch patterns in words. We…
The sequence of cortical activity inferred by response latency variability in the human ventral pathway of face processing.

PubMed

Lin, Jo-Fu Lotus; Silva-Pereyra, Juan; Chou, Chih-Che; Lin, Fa-Hsuan

2018-04-11

Variability in neuronal response latency has been typically considered caused by random noise. Previous studies of single cells and large neuronal populations have shown that the temporal variability tends to increase along the visual pathway. Inspired by these previous studies, we hypothesized that functional areas at later stages in the visual pathway of face processing would have larger variability in the response latency. To test this hypothesis, we used magnetoencephalographic data collected when subjects were presented with images of human faces. Faces are known to elicit a sequence of activity from the primary visual cortex to the fusiform gyrus. Our results revealed that the fusiform gyrus showed larger variability in the response latency compared to the calcarine fissure. Dynamic and spectral analyses of the latency variability indicated that the response latency in the fusiform gyrus was more variable than in the calcarine fissure between 70 ms and 200 ms after the stimulus onset and between 4 Hz and 40 Hz, respectively. The sequential processing of face information from the calcarine sulcus to the fusiform sulcus was more reliably detected based on sizes of the response variability than instants of the maximal response peaks. With two areas in the ventral visual pathway, we show that the variability in response latency across brain areas can be used to infer the sequence of cortical activity.
Intraseasonal variability in subtropical South America as depicted by precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, P. L. M.; Vera, C. S.; Liebmann, B.; Kiladis, G.

2008-06-01

Daily precipitation data from three stations in subtropical Argentina are used to describe intraseasonal variability (20 90 days) during the austral summer. This variability is compared locally and regionally with that present in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, in order to evaluate the performance of this variable as a proxy for convection in the region. The influence of the intraseasonal activity of the South American Seesaw (SASS) leading convection pattern on precipitation is also explored. Results show that intraseasonal variability explains a significant portion of summer precipitation variance, with a clear maximum in the vicinity of the SASS subtropical center. Correlation analysis reveals that OLR can explain only a small portion of daily precipitation variability, implying that it does not constitute a proper proxy for precipitation on daily timescales. On intraseasonal timescales, though, OLR is able to reproduce the main features of precipitation variability. The dynamical conditions that promote the development of intraseasonal variability in the region are further analyzed for selected summers. Seasons associated with a strong intraseasonal signal in precipitation variability show distinctive wet/dry intraseasonal periods in daily raw data, and are associated with a well defined SASS-like spatial pattern of convection. During these summers, strong large-scale forcing (such as warm El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and/or tropical intraseasonal convective activity), and Rossby-wave-like circulation anomalies extending across the Pacific Ocean, are also observed.
Carbon cycle. The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO₂ sink.

PubMed

Ahlström, Anders; Raupach, Michael R; Schurgers, Guy; Smith, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Canadell, Josep G; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jain, Atul K; Kato, Etsushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Sitch, Stephen; Stocker, Benjamin D; Viovy, Nicolas; Wang, Ying Ping; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke; Zeng, Ning

2015-05-22

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Sq Currents and Neutral Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Y.

2015-12-01

The relationship between ionospheric dynamo currents and neutral winds is examined using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The simulation is run for May and June 2009 with variable neutral winds but with constant solar and magnetospheric energy inputs, which ensures that day-to-day changes in the solar quiet (Sq) current system arise only from lower atmospheric forcing. The intensity and focus position of the simulated Sq current system exhibit large day-to-day variability, as is also seen in ground magnetometer data. We show how the day-to-day variation of the Sq current system relate to variable winds at various altitudes, latitudes, and longitudes.
Neighborhood diversity of large trees shows independent species patterns in a mixed dipterocarp forest in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Punchi-Manage, Ruwan; Wiegand, Thorsten; Wiegand, Kerstin; Getzin, Stephan; Huth, Andreas; Gunatilleke, C V Savitri; Gunatilleke, I A U Nimal

2015-07-01

Interactions among neighboring individuals influence plant performance and should create spatial patterns in local community structure. In order to assess the role of large trees in generating spatial patterns in local species richness, we used the individual species-area relationship (ISAR) to evaluate the species richness of trees of different size classes (and dead trees) in circular neighborhoods with varying radius around large trees of different focal species. To reveal signals of species interactions, we compared the ISAR function of the individuals of focal species with that of randomly selected nearby locations. We expected that large trees should strongly affect the community structure of smaller trees in their neighborhood, but that these effects should fade away with increasing size class. Unexpectedly, we found that only few focal species showed signals of species interactions with trees of the different size classes and that this was less likely for less abundant focal species. However, the few and relatively weak departures from independence were consistent with expectations of the effect of competition for space and the dispersal syndrome on spatial patterns. A noisy signal of competition for space found for large trees built up gradually with increasing life stage; it was not yet present for large saplings but detectable for intermediates. Additionally, focal species with animal-dispersed seeds showed higher species richness in their neighborhood than those with gravity- and gyration-dispersed seeds. Our analysis across the entire ontogeny from recruits to large trees supports the hypothesis that stochastic effects dilute deterministic species interactions in highly diverse communities. Stochastic dilution is a consequence of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity in species-rich communities where the identities of the nearest neighbors of a given plant are largely unpredictable. While the outcome of local species interactions is governed for each plant by deterministic fitness and niche differences, the large variability of competitors causes also a large variability in the outcomes of interactions and does not allow for strong directed responses at the species level. Collectively, our results highlight the critical effect of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity in structuring local spatial patterns of tropical forest diversity.
Incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity of a growth defect as a consequence of knocking out two K(+) transporters in the euascomycete fungus Podospora anserina.

PubMed Central

Lalucque, Hervé; Silar, Philippe

2004-01-01

We describe an example of incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity in the filamentous fungus Podospora anserina, two genetic properties classically associated with mutations in more complex organisms, such as green plants and animals. We show that the knockouts of two TRK-related K(+) transporters of this ascomycete present variability in their phenotype that cannot be attributed to fluctuations of the genetic background or the environment. Thalli of the knockout strains derived from independent monokaryotic ascospores or from a single monokaryotic ascospore and cultivated under standard growth conditions may or may not present impaired growth. When impaired, thalli exhibit a range of phenotypes. Environmental conditions control expressivity to a large extent and penetrance to a low extent. Restoration of functional potassium transport by heterologous expression of K(+) transporters from Neurospora crassa abolishes or strongly diminishes the growth impairment. These data show that incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity can be an intrinsic property of a single Mendelian loss-of-function mutation. They also show that such variability in the expression of a mutant phenotype can be promoted by a phenomenon not obviously related to the well-known chromatin structure modifications, i.e., potassium transport. They provide a framework to understand human channelopathies with similar properties. PMID:15020412
Incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity of a growth defect as a consequence of knocking out two K(+) transporters in the euascomycete fungus Podospora anserina.

PubMed

Lalucque, Hervé; Silar, Philippe

2004-01-01

We describe an example of incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity in the filamentous fungus Podospora anserina, two genetic properties classically associated with mutations in more complex organisms, such as green plants and animals. We show that the knockouts of two TRK-related K(+) transporters of this ascomycete present variability in their phenotype that cannot be attributed to fluctuations of the genetic background or the environment. Thalli of the knockout strains derived from independent monokaryotic ascospores or from a single monokaryotic ascospore and cultivated under standard growth conditions may or may not present impaired growth. When impaired, thalli exhibit a range of phenotypes. Environmental conditions control expressivity to a large extent and penetrance to a low extent. Restoration of functional potassium transport by heterologous expression of K(+) transporters from Neurospora crassa abolishes or strongly diminishes the growth impairment. These data show that incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity can be an intrinsic property of a single Mendelian loss-of-function mutation. They also show that such variability in the expression of a mutant phenotype can be promoted by a phenomenon not obviously related to the well-known chromatin structure modifications, i.e., potassium transport. They provide a framework to understand human channelopathies with similar properties.
Upper and lower bounds of ground-motion variabilities: implication for source properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotton, Fabrice; Reddy-Kotha, Sreeram; Bora, Sanjay; Bindi, Dino

2017-04-01

One of the key challenges of seismology is to be able to analyse the physical factors that control earthquakes and ground-motion variabilities. Such analysis is particularly important to calibrate physics-based simulations and seismic hazard estimations at high frequencies. Within the framework of the development of ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) developments, ground-motions residuals (differences between recorded ground motions and the values predicted by a GMPE) are computed. The exponential growth of seismological near-source records and modern GMPE analysis technics allow to partition these residuals into between- and a within-event components. In particular, the between-event term quantifies all those repeatable source effects (e.g. related to stress-drop or kappa-source variability) which have not been accounted by the magnitude-dependent term of the model. In this presentation, we first discuss the between-event variabilities computed both in the Fourier and Response Spectra domains, using recent high-quality global accelerometric datasets (e.g. NGA-west2, Resorce, Kiknet). These analysis lead to the assessment of upper bounds for the ground-motion variability. Then, we compare these upper bounds with lower bounds estimated by analysing seismic sequences which occurred on specific fault systems (e.g., located in Central Italy or in Japan). We show that the lower bounds of between-event variabilities are surprisingly large which indicates a large variability of earthquake dynamic properties even within the same fault system. Finally, these upper and lower bounds of ground-shaking variability are discussed in term of variability of earthquake physical properties (e.g., stress-drop and kappa_source).
Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Gray, S.T.; Palecki, M.A.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests a link between drought occurrence in the conterminous United States (US) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in both the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on decadal to multidecadal (D2M) time scales. Results show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the most consistent indicator of D2M drought variability in the conterminous US during the 20th century, but during the 19th century the tropical Pacific is a more consistent indicator of D2 M drought. The interaction between El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the AMO explain a large part of the D2M drought variability in the conterminous US. More modeling studies are needed to reveal possible mechanisms linking low-frequency ENSO variability and the AMO with drought in the conterminous US. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.
Patterns of Spatial Variation of Assemblages Associated with Intertidal Rocky Shores: A Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Cruz-Motta, Juan José; Miloslavich, Patricia; Palomo, Gabriela; Iken, Katrin; Konar, Brenda; Pohle, Gerhard; Trott, Tom; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Herrera, César; Hernández, Alejandra; Sardi, Adriana; Bueno, Andrea; Castillo, Julio; Klein, Eduardo; Guerra-Castro, Edlin; Gobin, Judith; Gómez, Diana Isabel; Riosmena-Rodríguez, Rafael; Mead, Angela; Bigatti, Gregorio; Knowlton, Ann; Shirayama, Yoshihisa

2010-01-01

Assemblages associated with intertidal rocky shores were examined for large scale distribution patterns with specific emphasis on identifying latitudinal trends of species richness and taxonomic distinctiveness. Seventy-two sites distributed around the globe were evaluated following the standardized sampling protocol of the Census of Marine Life NaGISA project (www.nagisa.coml.org). There were no clear patterns of standardized estimators of species richness along latitudinal gradients or among Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs); however, a strong latitudinal gradient in taxonomic composition (i.e., proportion of different taxonomic groups in a given sample) was observed. Environmental variables related to natural influences were strongly related to the distribution patterns of the assemblages on the LME scale, particularly photoperiod, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall. In contrast, no environmental variables directly associated with human influences (with the exception of the inorganic pollution index) were related to assemblage patterns among LMEs. Correlations of the natural assemblages with either latitudinal gradients or environmental variables were equally strong suggesting that neither neutral models nor models based solely on environmental variables sufficiently explain spatial variation of these assemblages at a global scale. Despite the data shortcomings in this study (e.g., unbalanced sample distribution), we show the importance of generating biological global databases for the use in large-scale diversity comparisons of rocky intertidal assemblages to stimulate continued sampling and analyses. PMID:21179546

NEPTUNE’S DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE FROM KEPLER K2 OBSERVATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR BROWN DWARF LIGHT CURVE ANALYSES

PubMed Central

Rowe, Jason F.; Gaulme, Patrick; Hammel, Heidi B.; Casewell, Sarah L.; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Gizis, John E.; Lissauer, Jack J.; Morales-Juberias, Raul; Orton, Glenn S.; Wong, Michael H.; Marley, Mark S.

2017-01-01

Observations of Neptune with the Kepler Space Telescope yield a 49 day light curve with 98% coverage at a 1 minute cadence. A significant signature in the light curve comes from discrete cloud features. We compare results extracted from the light curve data with contemporaneous disk-resolved imaging of Neptune from the Keck 10-m telescope at 1.65 microns and Hubble Space Telescope visible imaging acquired nine months later. This direct comparison validates the feature latitudes assigned to the K2 light curve periods based on Neptune’s zonal wind profile, and confirms observed cloud feature variability. Although Neptune’s clouds vary in location and intensity on short and long timescales, a single large discrete storm seen in Keck imaging dominates the K2 and Hubble light curves; smaller or fainter clouds likely contribute to short-term brightness variability. The K2 Neptune light curve, in conjunction with our imaging data, provides context for the interpretation of current and future brown dwarf and extrasolar planet variability measurements. In particular we suggest that the balance between large, relatively stable, atmospheric features and smaller, more transient, clouds controls the character of substellar atmospheric variability. Atmospheres dominated by a few large spots may show inherently greater light curve stability than those which exhibit a greater number of smaller features. PMID:28127087
Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model Large Ensemble in Comparison with EURO-CORDEX Results of Seasonal Means and Extreme Precipitation Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Brisette, F.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several extreme indicators like R95pTOT, RX5day and others are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.
US Intergroup Anal Carcinoma Trial: Tumor Diameter Predicts for Colostomy

PubMed Central

Ajani, Jaffer A.; Winter, Kathryn A.; Gunderson, Leonard L.; Pedersen, John; Benson, Al B.; Thomas, Charles R.; Mayer, Robert J.; Haddock, Michael G.; Rich, Tyvin A.; Willett, Christopher G.

2009-01-01

Purpose The US Gastrointestinal Intergroup Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 98-11 anal carcinoma trial showed that cisplatin-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy resulted in a significantly higher rate of colostomy compared with mitomycin-based therapy. Established prognostic variables for patients with anal carcinoma include tumor diameter, clinical nodal status, and sex, but pretreatment variables that would predict the likelihood of colostomy are unknown. Methods A secondary analysis was performed by combining patients in the two treatment arms to evaluate whether new predictive and prognostic variables would emerge. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to correlate overall survival (OS), disease-free survival, and time to colostomy (TTC) with pretreatment and treatment variables. Results Of 682 patients enrolled, 644 patients were assessable and analyzed. In the multivariate analysis, tumor-related prognosticators for poorer OS included node-positive cancer (P ≤ .0001), large (> 5 cm) tumor diameter (P = .01), and male sex (P = .016). In the treatment-related categories, cisplatin-based therapy was statistically significantly associated with a higher rate of colostomy (P = .03) than was mitomycin-based therapy. In the pretreatment variables category, only large tumor diameter independently predicted for TTC (P = .008). Similarly, the cumulative 5-year colostomy rate was statistically significantly higher for large tumor diameter than for small tumor diameter (Gray's test; P = .0074). Clinical nodal status and sex were not predictive of TTC. Conclusion The combined analysis of the two arms of RTOG 98-11, representing the largest prospective database, reveals that tumor diameter (irrespective of the nodal status) is the only independent pretreatment variable that predicts TTC and 5-year colostomy rate in patients with anal carcinoma. PMID:19139424
SUGGESTIONS FOR OPTIMIZED PLANNING OF MULTIVARIATE MONITORING OF ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

Recent work in factor analysis of multivariate data sets has shown that variables with little signal should not be included in the factor analysis. Work also shows that rotational ambiguity is reduced if sources impacting a receptor have both large and small contributions. Thes...
An investigation of the photometric variability of confirmed and candidate Galactic Be stars using ASAS-3 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Klaus; Otero, Sebastián; Hümmerich, Stefan; Kaltcheva, Nadejda; Paunzen, Ernst; Bohlsen, Terry

2018-05-01

We present an investigation of a large sample of confirmed (N=233) and candidate (N=54) Galactic classical Be stars (mean V magnitude range of 6.4 to 12.6 mag), with the main aim of characterizing their photometric variability. Our sample stars were preselected among early-type variables using light curve morphology criteria. Spectroscopic information was gleaned from the literature, and archival and newly-acquired spectra. Photometric variability was analyzed using archival ASAS-3 time series data. To enable a comparison of results, we have largely adopted the methodology of Labadie-Bartz et al. (2017), who carried out a similar investigation based on KELT data. Complex photometric variations were established in most stars: outbursts on different time-scales (in 73±5 % of stars), long-term variations (36±6 %), periodic variations on intermediate time-scales (1±1 %) and short-term periodic variations (6±3 %). 24±6 % of the outbursting stars exhibit (semi)periodic outbursts. We close the apparent void of rare outbursters reported by Labadie-Bartz et al. (2017), and show that Be stars with infrequent outbursts are not rare. While we do not find a significant difference in the percentage of stars showing outbursts among early-type, mid-type and late-type Be stars, we show that early-type Be stars exhibit much more frequent outbursts. We have measured rising and falling times for well-covered and well-defined outbursts. Nearly all outburst events are characterized by falling times that exceed the rising times. No differences were found between early-, mid- and late-type stars; a single non-linear function adequately describes the ratio of falling time to rising time across all spectral subtypes, with the ratio being larger for short events.
Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.
Metabolic effects of large-volume liposuction for obese healthy women: a meta-analysis of fasting insulin levels.

PubMed

Boriani, Filippo; Villani, Riccardo; Morselli, Paolo Giovanni

2014-10-01

Obesity is increasingly frequent in our society and is associated closely with metabolic disorders. As some studies have suggested, removal of fat tissue through liposuction and dermolipectomies may be of some benefit in the improvement of metabolic indices. This article aimed to review the published literature on this topic and to evaluate metabolic variations meta-analytically after liposuction, dermolipectomy, or both. Through a literature search with the PubMed/Medline database, 14 studies were identified. All articles were analyzed, and several metabolic variables were chosen in the attempt to meta-analyze the effect of adipose tissue removal through the various studies. All statistical calculations were performed with Review Manager (RevMan), version 5.0. Several cardiovascular and metabolic variables are described as prone to variations after body-contouring procedures when a significant amount of adipose tissue has been excised. Four of the studies included in the analysis reported improvements in all the parameters examined. Seven articles showed improvement in some variables and no improvement in others, whereas three studies showed no beneficial variation in any of the considered indicators after body-contouring procedures. Fasting plasma insulin was identified as the only variable for which a meta-analysis of five included studies was possible. The meta-analysis showed a statistically significant reduction in fasting plasma insulin resulting from large-volume liposuction in obese healthy women. Many beneficial metabolic effects resulting from dermolipectomy and liposuction procedures are described in the literature. In particular, fasting plasma insulin and thus insulin sensitivity seem to be positively influenced. Further research, including prospective clinical studies, is necessary for better exploration of the effects that body-contouring plastic surgery procedures have on metabolic parameters.
Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama.

PubMed

Islam, Samantha; Jones, Steven L; Dye, Daniel

2014-06-01

The research described in this paper analyzed injury severities at a disaggregate level for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) large truck at-fault accidents for rural and urban locations in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a crash, four separate random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The models identified different sets of factors that can lead to effective policy decisions aimed at reducing large truck-at-fault accidents for respective locations. The results of the study clearly indicated that there are differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities resulting from urban vs. rural SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents. The results showed that some variables were significant only in one type of accident model (SV or MV) but not in the other accident model. Again, some variables were found to be significant in one location (rural or urban) but not in other locations. The study also identified important factors that significantly impact the injury severity resulting from SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents in urban and rural locations based on the estimated values of average direct pseudo-elasticity. A careful study of the results of this study will help policy makers and transportation agencies identify location specific recommendations to increase safety awareness related to large truck involved accidents and to improve overall highway safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahani, Hossien; Kherad, Mehrzad; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; van Roosmalen, Lieke; Aryanfar, Ramin; Hosseini, Seyyed Mashaallah

2013-05-01

Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955-2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.
Beyond the Kepler/K2 bright limit: variability in the seven brightest members of the Pleiades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, T. R.; Pope, B. J. S.; Antoci, V.; Pápics, P. I.; Aerts, C.; Gies, D. R.; Gordon, K.; Huber, D.; Schaefer, G. H.; Aigrain, S.; Albrecht, S.; Barclay, T.; Barentsen, G.; Beck, P. G.; Bedding, T. R.; Fredslund Andersen, M.; Grundahl, F.; Howell, S. B.; Ireland, M. J.; Murphy, S. J.; Nielsen, M. B.; Silva Aguirre, V.; Tuthill, P. G.

2017-11-01

The most powerful tests of stellar models come from the brightest stars in the sky, for which complementary techniques, such as astrometry, asteroseismology, spectroscopy and interferometry, can be combined. The K2 mission is providing a unique opportunity to obtain high-precision photometric time series for bright stars along the ecliptic. However, bright targets require a large number of pixels to capture the entirety of the stellar flux, and CCD saturation, as well as restrictions on data storage and bandwidth, limit the number and brightness of stars that can be observed. To overcome this, we have developed a new photometric technique, which we call halo photometry, to observe very bright stars using a limited number of pixels. Halo photometry is simple, fast and does not require extensive pixel allocation, and will allow us to use K2 and other photometric missions, such as TESS, to observe very bright stars for asteroseismology and to search for transiting exoplanets. We apply this method to the seven brightest stars in the Pleiades open cluster. Each star exhibits variability; six of the stars show what are most likely slowly pulsating B-star pulsations, with amplitudes ranging from 20 to 2000 ppm. For the star Maia, we demonstrate the utility of combining K2 photometry with spectroscopy and interferometry to show that it is not a `Maia variable', and to establish that its variability is caused by rotational modulation of a large chemical spot on a 10 d time-scale.
Statistical analysis of corn yields responding to climate variability at various spatio-temporal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, H.; Lin, T.

2017-12-01

Rain-fed corn production systems are subject to sub-seasonal variations of precipitation and temperature during the growing season. As each growth phase has varied inherent physiological process, plants necessitate different optimal environmental conditions during each phase. However, this temporal heterogeneity towards climate variability alongside the lifecycle of crops is often simplified and fixed as constant responses in large scale statistical modeling analysis. To capture the time-variant growing requirements in large scale statistical analysis, we develop and compare statistical models at various spatial and temporal resolutions to quantify the relationship between corn yield and weather factors for 12 corn belt states from 1981 to 2016. The study compares three spatial resolutions (county, agricultural district, and state scale) and three temporal resolutions (crop growth phase, monthly, and growing season) to characterize the effects of spatial and temporal variability. Our results show that the agricultural district model together with growth phase resolution can explain 52% variations of corn yield caused by temperature and precipitation variability. It provides a practical model structure balancing the overfitting problem in county specific model and weak explanation power in state specific model. In US corn belt, precipitation has positive impact on corn yield in growing season except for vegetative stage while extreme heat attains highest sensitivity from silking to dough phase. The results show the northern counties in corn belt area are less interfered by extreme heat but are more vulnerable to water deficiency.
Variability extraction and modeling for product variants.

PubMed

Linsbauer, Lukas; Lopez-Herrejon, Roberto Erick; Egyed, Alexander

2017-01-01

Fast-changing hardware and software technologies in addition to larger and more specialized customer bases demand software tailored to meet very diverse requirements. Software development approaches that aim at capturing this diversity on a single consolidated platform often require large upfront investments, e.g., time or budget. Alternatively, companies resort to developing one variant of a software product at a time by reusing as much as possible from already-existing product variants. However, identifying and extracting the parts to reuse is an error-prone and inefficient task compounded by the typically large number of product variants. Hence, more disciplined and systematic approaches are needed to cope with the complexity of developing and maintaining sets of product variants. Such approaches require detailed information about the product variants, the features they provide and their relations. In this paper, we present an approach to extract such variability information from product variants. It identifies traces from features and feature interactions to their implementation artifacts, and computes their dependencies. This work can be useful in many scenarios ranging from ad hoc development approaches such as clone-and-own to systematic reuse approaches such as software product lines. We applied our variability extraction approach to six case studies and provide a detailed evaluation. The results show that the extracted variability information is consistent with the variability in our six case study systems given by their variability models and available product variants.
Variations in abundance, diversity and community composition of airborne fungi in swine houses across seasons

PubMed Central

Kumari, Priyanka; Woo, Cheolwoon; Yamamoto, Naomichi; Choi, Hong-Lim

2016-01-01

We examined the abundance, diversity and community composition of airborne fungi in swine houses during winter and summer seasons by using quantitative PCR and Illumina HiSeq sequencing of ITS1 region. The abundance of airborne fungi varied significantly only between seasons, while fungal diversity varied significantly both within and between seasons, with both abundance and diversity peaked in winter. The fungal OTU composition was largely structured by the swine house unit and season as well as by their interactions. Of the measured microclimate variables, relative humidity, particulate matters (PMs), ammonia, and stocking density were significantly correlated with fungal OTU composition. The variation in beta diversity was higher within swine houses during summer, which indicates that the airborne fungal community composition was more heterogeneous in summer compared to winter. We also identified several potential allergen/pathogen related fungal genera in swine houses. The total relative abundance of potential allergen/pathogen related fungal genera varied between swine houses in both seasons, and showed positive correlation with PM2.5. Overall, our findings show that the abundance, diversity and composition of airborne fungi are highly variable in swine houses and to a large extent structured by indoor microclimate variables of swine houses. PMID:27892507
Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

2004-01-01

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
SU-G-IeP4-13: PET Image Noise Variability and Its Consequences for Quantifying Tumor Hypoxia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueng, R; Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario; Manser, P

Purpose: The values in a PET image which represent activity concentrations of a radioactive tracer are influenced by a large number of parameters including patient conditions as well as image acquisition and reconstruction. This work investigates noise characteristics in PET images for various image acquisition and image reconstruction parameters. Methods: Different phantoms with homogeneous activity distributions were scanned using several acquisition parameters and reconstructed with numerous sets of reconstruction parameters. Images from six PET scanners from different vendors were analyzed and compared with respect to quantitative noise characteristics. Local noise metrics, which give rise to a threshold value defining themore » metric of hypoxic fraction, as well as global noise measures in terms of noise power spectra (NPS) were computed. In addition to variability due to different reconstruction parameters, spatial variability of activity distribution and its noise metrics were investigated. Patient data from clinical trials were mapped onto phantom scans to explore the impact of the scanner’s intrinsic noise variability on quantitative clinical analysis. Results: Local noise metrics showed substantial variability up to an order of magnitude for different reconstruction parameters. Investigations of corresponding NPS revealed reconstruction dependent structural noise characteristics. For the acquisition parameters, noise metrics were guided by Poisson statistics. Large spatial non-uniformity of the noise was observed in both axial and radial direction of a PET image. In addition, activity concentrations in PET images of homogeneous phantom scans showed intriguing spatial fluctuations for most scanners. The clinical metric of the hypoxic fraction was shown to be considerably influenced by the PET scanner’s spatial noise characteristics. Conclusion: We showed that a hypoxic fraction metric based on noise characteristics requires careful consideration of the various dependencies in order to justify its quantitative validity. This work may result in recommendations for harmonizing QA of PET imaging for multi-institutional clinical trials.« less
Vibration Reduction of Helicopter Blade Using Variable Dampers: A Feasibility Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, George C.; Liang, Zach; Gan, Quan; Niu, Tiecheng

2002-01-01

In the report, the investigation of controlling helicopter-blade lead-lag vibration is described. Current practice of adding passive damping may be improved to handle large dynamic range of the blade with several peaks of vibration resonance. To minimize extra-large damping forces that may damage the control system of blade, passive dampers should have relatively small damping coefficients, which in turn limit the effectiveness. By providing variable damping, a much larger damping coefficient to suppress the vibration can be realized. If the damping force reaches the maximum allowed threshold, the damper will be automatically switched into the mode with smaller damping coefficient to maintain near-constant damping force. Furthermore, the proposed control system will also have a fail-safe feature to guarantee the basic performation of a typical passive damper. The proposed control strategy to avoid resonant regions in the frequency domain is to generate variable damping force in combination with the supporting stiffness to manipulate the restoring force and conservative energy of the controlled blade system. Two control algorithms are developed and verified by a prototype variable damper, a digital controller and corresponding algorithms. Primary experiments show good potentials for the proposed variable damper: about 66% and 82% reductions in displacement at 1/3 length and the root of the blade respectively.
Optimal strategies for observation of active galactic nuclei variability with Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giomi, Matteo; Gerard, Lucie; Maier, Gernot

2016-07-01

Variable emission is one of the defining characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGN). While providing precious information on the nature and physics of the sources, variability is often challenging to observe with time- and field-of-view-limited astronomical observatories such as Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). In this work, we address two questions relevant for the observation of sources characterized by AGN-like variability: what is the most time-efficient way to detect such sources, and what is the observational bias that can be introduced by the choice of the observing strategy when conducting blind surveys of the sky. Different observing strategies are evaluated using simulated light curves and realistic instrument response functions of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a future gamma-ray observatory. We show that strategies that makes use of very small observing windows, spread over large periods of time, allows for a faster detection of the source, and are less influenced by the variability properties of the sources, as compared to strategies that concentrate the observing time in a small number of large observing windows. Although derived using CTA as an example, our conclusions are conceptually valid for any IACTs facility, and in general, to all observatories with small field of view and limited duty cycle.
Variable stiffness corrugated composite structure with shape memory polymer for morphing skin applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Xiaobo; Liu, Liwu; Scarpa, Fabrizio; Leng, Jinsong; Liu, Yanju

2017-03-01

This work presents a variable stiffness corrugated structure based on a shape memory polymer (SMP) composite with corrugated laminates as reinforcement that shows smooth aerodynamic surface, extreme mechanical anisotropy and variable stiffness for potential morphing skin applications. The smart composite corrugated structure shows a low in-plane stiffness to minimize the actuation energy, but also possess high out-of-plane stiffness to transfer the aerodynamic pressure load. The skin provides an external smooth aerodynamic surface because of the one-sided filling with the SMP. Due to variable stiffness of the shape memory polymer the morphing skin exhibits a variable stiffness with a change of temperature, which can help the skin adjust its stiffness according different service environments and also lock the temporary shape without external force. Analytical models related to the transverse and bending stiffness are derived and validated using finite element techniques. The stiffness of the morphing skin is further investigated by performing a parametric analysis against the geometry of the corrugation and various sets of SMP fillers. The theoretical and numerical models show a good agreement and demonstrate the potential of this morphing skin concept for morphing aircraft applications. We also perform a feasibility study of the use of this morphing skin in a variable camber morphing wing baseline. The results show that the morphing skin concept exhibits sufficient bending stiffness to withstand the aerodynamic load at low speed (less than 0.3 Ma), while demonstrating a large transverse stiffness variation (up to 191 times) that helps to create a maximum mechanical efficiency of the structure under varying external conditions.
Mutual Information between Discrete Variables with Many Categories using Recursive Adaptive Partitioning

PubMed Central

Seok, Junhee; Seon Kang, Yeong

2015-01-01

Mutual information, a general measure of the relatedness between two random variables, has been actively used in the analysis of biomedical data. The mutual information between two discrete variables is conventionally calculated by their joint probabilities estimated from the frequency of observed samples in each combination of variable categories. However, this conventional approach is no longer efficient for discrete variables with many categories, which can be easily found in large-scale biomedical data such as diagnosis codes, drug compounds, and genotypes. Here, we propose a method to provide stable estimations for the mutual information between discrete variables with many categories. Simulation studies showed that the proposed method reduced the estimation errors by 45 folds and improved the correlation coefficients with true values by 99 folds, compared with the conventional calculation of mutual information. The proposed method was also demonstrated through a case study for diagnostic data in electronic health records. This method is expected to be useful in the analysis of various biomedical data with discrete variables. PMID:26046461
Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

2016-04-01

Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some climates, and vice versa in others. How important this variability is in supporting a policy decision, depends largely on how a decision thresholds are set. For example in the case of the aridity index, with areas being denoted as arid with an index of 0.6 or above, we show that the variability is primarily of interest in transitional climates, such as the Mediterranean The analysis shows that while both LSM's and GHM's provide useful data, indices derived to support water resources management planning may differ substantially, depending on the model used. The analysis also identifies in which climates improvements to the models are particularly relevant to support the confidence with which decisions can be taken based on derived indicators.

Long-term variabilities of meridional geostrophic volumn transport in North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H.; Yuan, D.; Dewar, W. K.

2016-02-01

The meridional geostrophic volumn transport (MGVT) by the ocean plays a very important role in the climatic water mass and heat balance because of its large heat capacity which enables the oceans to store the large amount of radiation received in the summer and to release it in winter. Better understanding of the role of the oceans in climate variability is essential to assess the likely range of future climate fluctuations. In the last century the North Pacific Ocean experienced considerable climate variability, especially on decadal time scale. Some studies have shown that the North Pacific Ocean is the origin of North Pacific multidecadal variability (Latif and Barnett, 1994; Barnett et al., 1999). These fluctuations were associated with large anomalies in sea level, temperature, storminess and rainfall, the heat transport and other extremes are changing as well. If the MGVT of the ocean is well-determined, it can be used as a test of the validity of numerical, global climate models. In this paper, we investigate the long-term variability of the MGVT in North Pacific ocean based on 55 years long global ocean heat and salt content data (Levitus et al., 2012). Very clear inter-decadal variations can be seen in tropical , subtropical and subpolar regions of North Pacific Ocean. There are very consistent variations between the MGVT anomalies and the inter-decadal pacific oscillation (IPO) index in the tropical gyre with cold phase of IPO corresponding to negative MGVT anomalies and warm phase corresponding to positive MGVT anomalies. The subtropical gyre shows more complex variations, and the subpolar gyre shows a negative MGVT anomaly before late 1970's and a positive anomaly after that time. The geostrophic velocities of North Pacific Ocean show significantly different anomalies during the two IPO cold phases of 1955-1976 and 1999 to present, which suggests a different mechanism of the two cold phases. The long term variations of Sverdrup transport compares well with that of the MGVT in the basin of 8-10N and north of 35N, but the two compares poorly or even reversed in the middle part of the basin. A reduced gravity model is used to investigate the mechanisms of the above variations.
Analysis of the long-term surface wind variability over complex terrain using a high spatial resolution WRF simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Pedro A.; González-Rouco, J. Fidel; Montávez, Juan P.; García-Bustamante, E.; Navarro, J.; Dudhia, J.

2013-04-01

This work uses a WRF numerical simulation from 1960 to 2005 performed at a high horizontal resolution (2 km) to analyze the surface wind variability over a complex terrain region located in northern Iberia. A shorter slice of this simulation has been used in a previous study to demonstrate the ability of the WRF model in reproducing the observed wind variability during the period 1992-2005. Learning from that validation exercise, the extended simulation is herein used to inspect the wind behavior where and when observations are not available and to determine the main synoptic mechanisms responsible for the surface wind variability. A principal component analysis was applied to the daily mean wind. Two principal modes of variation accumulate a large percentage of the wind variability (83.7%). The first mode reflects the channeling of the flow between the large mountain systems in northern Iberia modulated by the smaller topographic features of the region. The second mode further contributes to stress the differentiated wind behavior over the mountains and valleys. Both modes show significant contributions at the higher frequencies during the whole analyzed period, with different contributions at lower frequencies during the different decades. A strong relationship was found between these two modes and the zonal and meridional large scale pressure gradients over the area. This relationship is described in the context of the influence of standard circulation modes relevant in the European region like the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.
Presence and Potential Distribution of Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Slovenia.

PubMed

Kalan, Katja; Ivovic, Vladimir; Glasnovic, Peter; Buzan, Elena

2017-11-07

In Slovenia, two invasive mosquito species are present, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1895) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald, 1901) (Diptera: Culicidae). In this study, we examined their actual distribution and suitable habitats for new colonizations. Data from survey of species presence in 2013 and 2015, bioclimatic variables and altitude were used for the construction of predictive maps. We produced various models in Maxent software and tested two bioclimatic variable sets, WorldClim and CHELSA. For the variable selection of A. albopictus modeling we used statistical and expert knowledge-based approach, whereas for A. j. japonicus we used only a statistically based approach. The best performing models for both species were chosen according to AIC score-based evaluation. In 2 yr of sampling, A. albopictus was largely confined to the western half of Slovenia, whereas A. j. japonicus spread significantly and can be considered as an established species in a large part of the country. Comparison of models with WorldClim and CHELSA variables for both species showed models with CHELSA variables as a better tool for prediction. Finally, we validated the models performance in predicting distribution of species according to collected field data. Our study confirms that both species are co-occurring and are sympatric in a large part of the country area. The tested models could be used for future prevention of invasive mosquitoes spreading in other countries with similar bioclimatic conditions. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Siblings and Gender Differences in African-American College Attendance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loury, Linda Datcher

2004-01-01

Differences in college enrollment growth rates for African-American men and women have resulted in a large gender gap in college attendance. This paper shows that, controlling for spurious correlation with unobserved variables, having more college-educated older siblings raises rather than lowers the likelihood of college attendance for…
Interannual variability in phytoplankton pigment distribution during the spring transition along the west coast of North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, A. C.; Strub, P. T.

1989-01-01

A 5-year time series of coastal zone color scanner imagery (1980-1983, 1986) is used to examine changes in the large-scale pattern of chlorophyll pigment concentration coincident with the spring transition in winds and currents along the west coast of North America. The data show strong interannual variability in the timing and spatial patterns of pigment concentration at the time of the transition event. Interannual variability in the response of pigment concentration to the spring transition appears to be a function of spatial and temporal variability in vertical nutrient flux induced by wind mixing and/or the upwelling initiated at the time of the transition. Interannual differences in the mixing regime are illustrated with a one-dimensional mixing model.
Some environmental effects of forest fires in interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eaton, Frank; Wendler, Gerd

The high variability of burning conditions and fuels, found in Alaskan forest fires, produces an associated complex emission of particulate matter. Histological evidence of some large particles has been found in the forest fire plumes as well as aerosols resulting apparently from gas-to-particle conversion. Particles analyzed with a scanning electron microscope and X-ray energy dispersive techniques show large variability in both physical and chemical characteristics. Optical measurements show forest fire smoke affects atmospheric turbidity regionally. Turbidity values presented which were measured in the plume from a forest fire 400 km from Fairbanks show values in excess of those found for heavily polluted urban regions. The particulate matter analysis showing irregular shapes and highly varied chemical composition displays the difficulty in radiative transfer calculations due to the assumptions of Mie theory. The nature of the aerosol size concentrations (non-Junge power law distributions) found in forest fire plumes also violates the assumption necessary for application of Angstrom's classic method of defining the turbidity coefficient and wavelength exponent. Consequences of such particulate matter may affect the temperature structure of the atmosphere, radiation balance as well as visibility. In addition, the burnt over forest regions display a reduction of surface albedo and roughness parameter which will have prolonged influence on the heat exchange at the earth's surface.
Determining the physical and chemical processes behind four caldera-forming eruptions in rapid succession in the San Juan caldera cluster, Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, A. C.; Caricchi, L.; Lipman, P. W.

2017-12-01

A primary goal of volcanology is to understand the frequency and magnitude of large, explosive volcanic eruptions to mitigate their impact on society. Recent studies show that the average magma flux and the time between magma injections into a given magmatic-volcanic system fundamentally control the frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions, yet these parameters are unknown for many volcanic regions on Earth. We focus on major and trace element chemistry of individual phases and whole-rock samples, initial zircon ID-TIMS analyses, and zircon SIMS oxygen isotope analyses of four caldera-forming ignimbrites from the San Juan caldera cluster in the Southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field, Colorado, to determine the physical and chemical processes leading to large eruptions. We collected outflow samples along stratigraphy of the three caldera-forming ignimbrites of the San Luis caldera complex: the Rat Creek Tuff ( 150 km3), Cebolla Creek Tuff ( 250 km3), and Nelson Mountain Tuff (>500 km3); and we collected samples of both outflow and intracaldera facies of the Snowshoe Mountain Tuff (>500 km3), which formed the Creede caldera. Single-crystal sanidine 40Ar/39Ar ages show that these large eruptions occurred in rapid succession between 26.91 ± 0.02 Ma (Rat Creek Tuff) and 26.87 ± 0.02 Ma (Snowshoe Mountain Tuff), providing an opportunity to investigate the temporal evolution of magmatic systems feeding large, explosive volcanic eruptions. Major and trace element analyses show that the first and last eruption of the San Luis caldera complex (Rat Creek Tuff and Nelson Mountain Tuff) are rhyolitic to dacitic ignimbrites, whereas the Cebolla Creek Tuff and Snowshoe Mountain Tuff are crystal-rich, dacitic ignimbrites. Trace elements show enrichment in light rare-earth elements (LREEs) over heavy rare-earth elements (HREEs), and whereas the trace element patterns are similar for each caldera cycle, trace element values for each ignimbrite show variability in HREE concentrations. This variability indicates that these large eruptions sampled a magmatic system with some degree of internal heterogeneity. These results have implications for the chemical and physical processes, such as magmatic flux and injection periodicity, leading to the formation of large magmatic systems prior to large, explosive eruptions.
The Pattern Across the Continental United States of Evapotranspiration Variability Associated with Water Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Rigden, Angela J.; Jung, Martin; Collatz, G. James; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2015-01-01

The spatial pattern across the continental United States of the interannual variance of warm season water-dependent evapotranspiration, a pattern of relevance to land-atmosphere feedback, cannot be measured directly. Alternative and indirect approaches to estimating the pattern, however, do exist, and given the uncertainty of each, we use several such approaches here. We first quantify the water dependent evapotranspiration variance pattern inherent in two derived evapotranspiration datasets available from the literature. We then search for the pattern in proxy geophysical variables (air temperature, stream flow, and NDVI) known to have strong ties to evapotranspiration. The variances inherent in all of the different (and mostly independent) data sources show some differences but are generally strongly consistent they all show a large variance signal down the center of the U.S., with lower variances toward the east and (for the most part) toward the west. The robustness of the pattern across the datasets suggests that it indeed represents the pattern operating in nature. Using Budykos hydroclimatic framework, we show that the pattern can largely be explained by the relative strength of water and energy controls on evapotranspiration across the continent.
Distance correlation methods for discovering associations in large astrophysical databases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martínez-Gómez, Elizabeth; Richards, Mercedes T.; Richards, Donald St. P., E-mail: elizabeth.martinez@itam.mx, E-mail: mrichards@astro.psu.edu, E-mail: richards@stat.psu.edu

2014-01-20

High-dimensional, large-sample astrophysical databases of galaxy clusters, such as the Chandra Deep Field South COMBO-17 database, provide measurements on many variables for thousands of galaxies and a range of redshifts. Current understanding of galaxy formation and evolution rests sensitively on relationships between different astrophysical variables; hence an ability to detect and verify associations or correlations between variables is important in astrophysical research. In this paper, we apply a recently defined statistical measure called the distance correlation coefficient, which can be used to identify new associations and correlations between astrophysical variables. The distance correlation coefficient applies to variables of any dimension,more » can be used to determine smaller sets of variables that provide equivalent astrophysical information, is zero only when variables are independent, and is capable of detecting nonlinear associations that are undetectable by the classical Pearson correlation coefficient. Hence, the distance correlation coefficient provides more information than the Pearson coefficient. We analyze numerous pairs of variables in the COMBO-17 database with the distance correlation method and with the maximal information coefficient. We show that the Pearson coefficient can be estimated with higher accuracy from the corresponding distance correlation coefficient than from the maximal information coefficient. For given values of the Pearson coefficient, the distance correlation method has a greater ability than the maximal information coefficient to resolve astrophysical data into highly concentrated horseshoe- or V-shapes, which enhances classification and pattern identification. These results are observed over a range of redshifts beyond the local universe and for galaxies from elliptical to spiral.« less
Divergent patterns of experimental and model derived variables of tundra ecosystem carbon exchange in response to arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaedel, C.; Koven, C.; Celis, G.; Hutchings, J.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mauritz, M.; Pegoraro, E.; Salmon, V. G.; Taylor, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Schuur, E.

2017-12-01

Warming over the Arctic in the last decades has been twice as high as for the rest of the globe and has exposed large amounts of organic carbon to microbial decomposition in permafrost ecosystems. Continued warming and associated changes in soil moisture conditions not only lead to enhanced microbial decomposition from permafrost soil but also enhanced plant carbon uptake. Both processes impact the overall contribution of permafrost carbon dynamics to the global carbon cycle, yet field and modeling studies show large uncertainties in regard to both uptake and release mechanisms. Here, we compare variables associated with ecosystem carbon exchange (GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra with the same variables derived from an experimental model (Community Land Model version 4.5: CLM4.5) that simulates the same degree of arctic warming. While soil temperatures and thaw depths exhibited comparable increases with warming between field and model variables, carbon exchange related parameters showed divergent patterns. In the field non-linear responses to experimentally induced permafrost thaw were observed in GPP, Reco, and NEE. Indirect effects of continued soil warming and thaw created changes in soil moisture conditions causing ground surface subsidence and suppressing ecosystem carbon exchange over time. In contrast, the model predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with every year of warming turning the ecosystem into a net annual carbon sink. The field experiment revealed the importance of hydrology in carbon flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the model may fail to predict. Further parameterization of variables that drive GPP, Reco, and NEE in the model will help to inform and refine future model development.
Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000-1600 as a case study.

PubMed

Howey, Meghan C L; Palace, Michael W; McMichael, Crystal H

2016-07-05

Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000-1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data.
Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.
State and Trends of the Global Carbon Budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canadell, J.

2017-12-01

Long-term redistribution of carbon among fossil fuel reserves, the atmosphere, oceans and land largely determines the degree of the human perturbation of the atmosphere and the climate system. Here I'll show a number of diagnostics to characterize changes in the global carbon cycle, including: 1) the continued growth in atmospheric CO2 despite an apparent stabilization in the growth of fossil fuel emissions and the likely emissions decline from land use change; 2) the growth in the land and ocean sinks in response to the rise in excess atmospheric CO2 with large annual and decadal variability; and 3) key drivers of these trends including the global greening, spatial distribution of carbons sinks, and responses to inter-annual variability. Efforts to attribute driving processes to the growing sinks require a strong CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation growth and emerging trends show an under realized role of semiarid regions in contributing to the mean, trend and variability of the global land sink. Climate variability, including ENSO and the 2000's slowdown in terrestrial global warming, has produced opportunities to explore the drivers of global carbon fluxes as they take large departures from mean states (e.g., high rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation along with no growth in fossil fuel emissions and strong land greening trends in recent years). Process attribution shows the strong interplay between gross primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration in response to warming, and the role of tropical and sub-tropical systems to the overall sink. New advances in observations and data handling are critical in reducing uncertainties including 1) Bayesian fusion approaches to optimally combine multiple data streams of ocean and land uptake, and fossil fuel and land use change emissions; 2) continuous landscape carbon density measurements and column CO2 from remotely sensed platforms; and 3) improved ocean circulation and CO2 uptake at the decadal scales; among others. This presentation builds upon the work done by a team of international scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project.
Large-scale assessment of soil erosion in Africa: satellites help to jointly account for dynamic rainfall and vegetation cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrieling, Anton; Hoedjes, Joost C. B.; van der Velde, Marijn

2015-04-01

Efforts to map and monitor soil erosion need to account for the erratic nature of the soil erosion process. Soil erosion by water occurs on sloped terrain when erosive rainfall and consequent surface runoff impact soils that are not well-protected by vegetation or other soil protective measures. Both rainfall erosivity and vegetation cover are highly variable through space and time. Due to data paucity and the relative ease of spatially overlaying geographical data layers into existing models like USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation), many studies and mapping efforts merely use average annual values for erosivity and vegetation cover as input. We first show that rainfall erosivity can be estimated from satellite precipitation data. We obtained average annual erosivity estimates from 15 yr of 3-hourly TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data (1998-2012) using intensity-erosivity relationships. Our estimates showed a positive correlation (r = 0.84) with long-term annual erosivity values of 37 stations obtained from literature. Using these TMPA erosivity retrievals, we demonstrate the large interannual variability, with maximum annual erosivity often exceeding two to three times the mean value, especially in semi-arid areas. We then calculate erosivity at a 10-daily time-step and combine this with vegetation cover development for selected locations in Africa using NDVI - normalized difference vegetation index - time series from SPOT VEGETATION. Although we do not integrate the data at this point, the joint analysis of both variables stresses the need for joint accounting for erosivity and vegetation cover for large-scale erosion assessment and monitoring.
The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Melissa; Erickson, David; Kendall, Wesley; Fu, Joshua; Ott, Leslie; Pawson, Steven

2012-01-01

An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.
Plasma free amino acid profiles evaluate risk of metabolic syndrome, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Natsu; Mahbub, M H; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Hase, Ryosuke; Ishimaru, Yasutaka; Sunagawa, Hiroshi; Amano, Hiroki; Kobayashi-Miura, Mikiko; Kanda, Hideyuki; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Mai; Kikuchi, Shinya; Ikeda, Atsuko; Takasu, Mariko; Kageyama, Naoko; Nakamura, Mina; Tanabe, Tsuyoshi

2017-04-07

Recently, the association of plasma free amino acid (PFAA) profile and lifestyle-related diseases has been reported. However, few studies have been reported in large Asian populations, about the usefulness of PFAAs for evaluating disease risks. We examined the ability of PFAA profiles to evaluate lifestyle-related diseases in so far the largest Asian population. We examined plasma concentrations of 19 amino acids in 8589 Japanese subjects, and determined the association with variables associated with obesity, blood glucose, lipid, and blood pressure. We also evaluated the PFAA indexes that reflect visceral fat obesity and insulin resistance. The contribution of single PFAA level and relevant PFAA indexes was also examined in the risk assessment of lifestyle-related diseases. Of the 19 amino acids, branched-chain amino acids and aromatic amino acids showed association with obesity and lipid variables. The PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity showed relatively higher correlation with variables than that of any PFAA. In the evaluation of lifestyle-related disease risks, the odds ratios of the PFAA index related to visceral fat obesity or insulin resistance with the diseases were higher than most of those of individual amino acid levels even after adjusting for potential confounding factors. The association pattern of the indexes and PFAA with each lifestyle-related disease was distinct. We confirmed the usefulness of PFAA profiles and indexes as markers for evaluating the risks of lifestyle-related diseases, including diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and hypertension in a large Asian population.
Space Technology 5 Multipoint Observations of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Wang, Y.; Slavin, J. A.; Strangeway, R. L.

2009-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a constellation mission consisting of three microsatellites. It provides the first multipoint magnetic field measurements in low Earth orbit, which enables us to separate spatial and temporal variations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using the ST5 data. We examine the field-aligned current observations during and after a geomagnetic storm and compare the magnetic field profiles at the three spacecraft. The multipoint data demonstrate that mesoscale current structures, commonly embedded within large-scale current sheets, are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in approx.10 min time scales. On the other hand, the data also show that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx.1 min for mesoscale currents and approx.10 min for large-scale currents. These temporal features are very likely associated with dynamic variations of their charge carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of mesoscale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.
Cancer biomarker discovery is improved by accounting for variability in general levels of drug sensitivity in pre-clinical models.

PubMed

Geeleher, Paul; Cox, Nancy J; Huang, R Stephanie

2016-09-21

We show that variability in general levels of drug sensitivity in pre-clinical cancer models confounds biomarker discovery. However, using a very large panel of cell lines, each treated with many drugs, we could estimate a general level of sensitivity to all drugs in each cell line. By conditioning on this variable, biomarkers were identified that were more likely to be effective in clinical trials than those identified using a conventional uncorrected approach. We find that differences in general levels of drug sensitivity are driven by biologically relevant processes. We developed a gene expression based method that can be used to correct for this confounder in future studies.
How to measure monetary losses in gambling disorder? An evidence-based refinement.

PubMed

Medeiros, Gustavo C; Redden, Sarah A; Chamberlain, Samuel R; Grant, Jon E

2018-05-01

Diverse monetary measures have been utilized across different studies in gambling disorder (GD). However, there are limited evidence-based proposals regarding the best way to assess financial losses. We investigated how different variables of monetary losses correlate with validated assessments of gambling severity and overall functioning in a large sample of subjects with GD (n = 436). We found that relative monetary variables (i.e. when financial losses were evaluated in relation to personal income) showed the most robust correlations with gambling severity and overall psychosocial functioning. Percentage of monthly income lost from gambling was the variable with the best performance. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bottom-up and Top-down Input Augment the Variability of Cortical Neurons

PubMed Central

Nassi, Jonathan J.; Kreiman, Gabriel; Born, Richard T.

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Neurons in the cerebral cortex respond inconsistently to a repeated sensory stimulus, yet they underlie our stable sensory experiences. Although the nature of this variability is unknown, its ubiquity has encouraged the general view that each cell produces random spike patterns that noisily represent its response rate. In contrast, here we show that reversibly inactivating distant sources of either bottom-up or top-down input to cortical visual areas in the alert primate reduces both the spike train irregularity and the trial-to-trial variability of single neurons. A simple model in which a fraction of the pre-synaptic input is silenced can reproduce this reduction in variability, provided that there exist temporal correlations primarily within, but not between, excitatory and inhibitory input pools. A large component of the variability of cortical neurons may therefore arise from synchronous input produced by signals arriving from multiple sources. PMID:27427459

Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

PubMed Central

Webber, Benjamin G. M.; Heywood, Karen J.; Stevens, David P.; Dutrieux, Pierre; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Tae Wan

2017-01-01

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS. PMID:28211473
Life-cycle modification in open oceans accounts for genome variability in a cosmopolitan phytoplankton.

PubMed

von Dassow, Peter; John, Uwe; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Probert, Ian; Bendif, El Mahdi; Kegel, Jessica U; Audic, Stéphane; Wincker, Patrick; Da Silva, Corinne; Claverie, Jean-Michel; Doney, Scott; Glover, David M; Flores, Daniella Mella; Herrera, Yeritza; Lescot, Magali; Garet-Delmas, Marie-José; de Vargas, Colomban

2015-06-01

Emiliania huxleyi is the most abundant calcifying plankton in modern oceans with substantial intraspecific genome variability and a biphasic life cycle involving sexual alternation between calcified 2N and flagellated 1N cells. We show that high genome content variability in Emiliania relates to erosion of 1N-specific genes and loss of the ability to form flagellated cells. Analysis of 185 E. huxleyi strains isolated from world oceans suggests that loss of flagella occurred independently in lineages inhabiting oligotrophic open oceans over short evolutionary timescales. This environmentally linked physiogenomic change suggests life cycling is not advantageous in very large/diluted populations experiencing low biotic pressure and low ecological variability. Gene loss did not appear to reflect pressure for genome streamlining in oligotrophic oceans as previously observed in picoplankton. Life-cycle modifications might be common in plankton and cause major functional variability to be hidden from traditional taxonomic or molecular markers.
The Evolutionary Status of M3 RR Lyrae Variable Stars: Breakdown of the Canonical Framework?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelan, M.

2004-01-01

In order to test the prevailing paradigm of horizontal-branch (HB) stellar evolution, we use the large databases of measured RR Lyrae parameters for the globular cluster M3 (NGC 5272) recently provided by Bakos et al. and Corwin & Carney. We compare the observed distribution of fundamentalized periods against the predictions of synthetic HBs. The observed distribution shows a sharp peak at Pf~0.55 days, which is primarily due to the RRab variables, whereas the model predictions instead indicate that the distribution should be more uniform in Pf, with a buildup of variables with shorter periods (Pf<0.5 days). Detailed statistical tests show, for the first time, that the observed and predicted distributions are incompatible with one another at a high significance level. This indicates either that canonical HB models are inappropriate, or that M3 is a pathological case that cannot be considered representative of the Oosterhoff type I (OoI) class. In this sense, we show that the OoI cluster with the next largest number of RR Lyrae variables, M5 (NGC 5904), presents a similar, although less dramatic, challenge to the models. We show that the sharp peak in the M3 period distribution receives a significant contribution from the Blazhko variables in the cluster. We also show that M15 (NGC 7078) and M68 (NGC 4590) show similar peaks in their Pf distributions, which in spite of being located at a Pf value similar to that of M3, can, however, be primarily ascribed to the RRc variables. Again similar to M3, a demise of RRc variables toward the blue edge of the instability strip is also identified in these two globulars. This is again in sharp contrast to the evolutionary scenario, which also foresees a strong buildup of RRc variables with short periods in OoII globulars. We speculate that in OoI systems RRab variables may somehow get ``trapped'' close to the transition line between RRab and RRc pulsators as they evolve to the blue in the H-R diagram, whereas in OoII systems it is the RRc variables that may get similarly trapped instead, as they evolve to the red, before changing their pulsation mode to RRab. Such a scenario is supported by the available CMDs and Bailey diagrams for M3, M15, and M68.
Photometry of compact galaxies.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B. S. P.; Usher, P. D.; Barrett, J. W.

1972-01-01

Photometric histories of the N galaxies 3C 390.3 and PKS 0521-36. Four other compact galaxies, Markarian 9, I Zw 92, 2 Zw 136, and III Zw 77 showed no evidence of variability. The photometric histories were obtained from an exhaustive study of those plates of the Harvard collection taken with large aperture cameras. The images of all galaxies reported were indistinguishable from stars due to the camera f-ratios and low surface brightness of the outlying nebulosities of the galaxies. Standard techniques for the study of variable stars are therefore applicable.
Environment and host as large-scale controls of ectomycorrhizal fungi.

PubMed

van der Linde, Sietse; Suz, Laura M; Orme, C David L; Cox, Filipa; Andreae, Henning; Asi, Endla; Atkinson, Bonnie; Benham, Sue; Carroll, Christopher; Cools, Nathalie; De Vos, Bruno; Dietrich, Hans-Peter; Eichhorn, Johannes; Gehrmann, Joachim; Grebenc, Tine; Gweon, Hyun S; Hansen, Karin; Jacob, Frank; Kristöfel, Ferdinand; Lech, Paweł; Manninger, Miklós; Martin, Jan; Meesenburg, Henning; Merilä, Päivi; Nicolas, Manuel; Pavlenda, Pavel; Rautio, Pasi; Schaub, Marcus; Schröck, Hans-Werner; Seidling, Walter; Šrámek, Vít; Thimonier, Anne; Thomsen, Iben Margrete; Titeux, Hugues; Vanguelova, Elena; Verstraeten, Arne; Vesterdal, Lars; Waldner, Peter; Wijk, Sture; Zhang, Yuxin; Žlindra, Daniel; Bidartondo, Martin I

2018-06-06

Explaining the large-scale diversity of soil organisms that drive biogeochemical processes-and their responses to environmental change-is critical. However, identifying consistent drivers of belowground diversity and abundance for some soil organisms at large spatial scales remains problematic. Here we investigate a major guild, the ectomycorrhizal fungi, across European forests at a spatial scale and resolution that is-to our knowledge-unprecedented, to explore key biotic and abiotic predictors of ectomycorrhizal diversity and to identify dominant responses and thresholds for change across complex environmental gradients. We show the effect of 38 host, environment, climate and geographical variables on ectomycorrhizal diversity, and define thresholds of community change for key variables. We quantify host specificity and reveal plasticity in functional traits involved in soil foraging across gradients. We conclude that environmental and host factors explain most of the variation in ectomycorrhizal diversity, that the environmental thresholds used as major ecosystem assessment tools need adjustment and that the importance of belowground specificity and plasticity has previously been underappreciated.
Humans and seasonal climate variability threaten large-bodied coral reef fish with small ranges

PubMed Central

Mellin, C.; Mouillot, D.; Kulbicki, M.; McClanahan, T. R.; Vigliola, L.; Bradshaw, C. J. A.; Brainard, R. E.; Chabanet, P.; Edgar, G. J.; Fordham, D. A.; Friedlander, A. M.; Parravicini, V.; Sequeira, A. M. M.; Stuart-Smith, R. D.; Wantiez, L.; Caley, M. J.

2016-01-01

Coral reefs are among the most species-rich and threatened ecosystems on Earth, yet the extent to which human stressors determine species occurrences, compared with biogeography or environmental conditions, remains largely unknown. With ever-increasing human-mediated disturbances on these ecosystems, an important question is not only how many species can inhabit local communities, but also which biological traits determine species that can persist (or not) above particular disturbance thresholds. Here we show that human pressure and seasonal climate variability are disproportionately and negatively associated with the occurrence of large-bodied and geographically small-ranging fishes within local coral reef communities. These species are 67% less likely to occur where human impact and temperature seasonality exceed critical thresholds, such as in the marine biodiversity hotspot: the Coral Triangle. Our results identify the most sensitive species and critical thresholds of human and climatic stressors, providing opportunity for targeted conservation intervention to prevent local extinctions. PMID:26839155
NMDA receptor content of synapses in stratum radiatum of the hippocampal CA1 area.

PubMed

Racca, C; Stephenson, F A; Streit, P; Roberts, J D; Somogyi, P

2000-04-01

Glutamate receptors activated by NMDA (NMDARs) or AMPA (AMPARs) are clustered on dendritic spines of pyramidal cells. Both the AMPAR-mediated postsynaptic responses and the synaptic AMPAR immunoreactivity show a large intersynapse variability. Postsynaptic responses mediated by NMDARs show less variability. To assess the variability in NMDAR content and the extent of their coexistence with AMPARs in Schaffer collateral-commissural synapses of adult rat CA1 pyramidal cells, electron microscopic immunogold localization of receptors has been used. Immunoreactivity of NMDARs was detected in virtually all synapses on spines, but AMPARs were undetectable, on average, in 12% of synapses. A proportion of synapses had a very high AMPAR content relative to the mean content, resulting in a distribution more skewed toward larger values than that of NMDARs. The variability of synaptic NMDAR content [coefficient of variation (CV), 0.64-0.70] was much lower than that of the AMPAR content (CV, 1.17-1.45). Unlike the AMPAR content, the NMDAR content showed only a weak correlation with synapse size. As reported previously for AMPARs, the immunoreactivity of NMDARs was also associated with the spine apparatus within spines. The results demonstrate that the majority of the synapses made by CA3 pyramidal cells onto spines of CA1 pyramids express both NMDARs and AMPARs, but with variable ratios. A less-variable NMDAR content is accompanied by a wide variability of AMPAR content, indicating that the regulation of expression of the two receptors is not closely linked. These findings support reports that fast excitatory transmission at some of these synapses is mediated by activation mainly of NMDARs.
The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: The C IV Blueshift, Its Variability, and Its Dependence Upon Quasar Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Mouyuan; Xue, Yongquan; Richards, Gordon T.; Trump, Jonathan R.; Shen, Yue; Brandt, W. N.; Schneider, D. P.

2018-02-01

We use the multi-epoch spectra of 362 quasars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project to investigate the dependence of the blueshift of C IV relative to Mg II on quasar properties. We confirm that high-blueshift sources tend to have low C IV equivalent widths (EWs), and that the low-EW sources span a range of blueshift. Other high-ionization lines, such as He II, also show similar blueshift properties. The ratio of the line width (measured as both the full width at half maximum and the velocity dispersion) of C IV to that of Mg II increases with blueshift. Quasar variability enhances the connection between the C IV blueshift and quasar properties (e.g., EW). The variability of the Mg II line center (i.e., the wavelength that bisects the cumulative line flux) increases with blueshift. In contrast, the C IV line center shows weaker variability at the extreme blueshifts. Quasars with the high-blueshift C IV lines tend to have less variable continuum emission, when controlling for EW, luminosity, and redshift. Our results support the scenario that high-blueshift sources tend to have large Eddington ratios.
Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, A.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wada, Y.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

The availability and depletion of groundwater resources - a possible threat to food and water security - are impacted by both pumping and climate variability, although the relative importance of these two drivers is rarely quantified. Here we show that long-term change in the monsoon precipitation is a major driver of groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. GRACE and observation well data show that groundwater storage has declined in north India with a rate of 2 cm/year and increased in the south India by 1 to 2 cm/year during the period of 2002-2013. A large fraction of total variability in groundwater storage is influenced by precipitation in northcentral and southern India. Groundwater storage variability in the northwestern India is mainly explained by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is influenced by precipitation. Declines in precipitation in north India is linked with the Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognised teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage. These results have strong implications for management of groundwater resources under current and future climate conditions in India.
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Between 1980 and 2015, Europe experienced 18% of worldwide weather-related loss events, which accounted for over US500 billion in damage. Consequently, it is urgent to further develop adaptation strategies to mitigate the consequences of weather-related disasters, such as floods. Europe's capability to prepare for such disasters is challenged by a large range of uncertainties and a limited understanding of the driving forces of hydrometeorological hazards. One of the major sources of uncertainty is the relationship between climate variability and weather-related losses. Previous studies show that climate variability drives temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, their influence on flood risk has received little attention. We investigated the influence of the positive and negative phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), on the seasonal frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, and anomalies in flood occurrence and damage compared to the neutral phases of the indices of climate variability. Using statistical methods to analyze relationships between the indices of climate variability and four indicators of flooding, we found that positive and negative phases of NAO and AO are associated with more (or less) frequent and intense seasonal extreme rainfall over large areas of Europe. The relationship between ENSO and both the occurrence of extreme rainfall and intensity of extreme rainfall in Europe is much smaller than the relationship with NAO or AO, but still significant in some regions. We observe that flood damage and flood occurrence have strong links with climate variability, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Therefore, when investigating flooding across Europe, all three indices of climate variability should be considered. Seasonal forecasting of flooding could be enhanced by the inclusion of climate variability indicators .
Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation

PubMed Central

MANEL, STÉPHANIE; GUGERLI, FELIX; THUILLER, WILFRIED; ALVAREZ, NADIR; LEGENDRE, PIERRE; HOLDEREGGER, ROLF; GIELLY, LUDOVIC; TABERLET, PIERRE

2014-01-01

Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran’s eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps. PMID:22680783
Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent

2016-01-01

This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.
Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riordan, Michael O’; Pe’er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C., E-mail: michael_oriordan@umail.ucc.ie

2017-07-10

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ -ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive blackmore » hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.« less
Large explosive basaltic eruptions at Katla volcano, Iceland: Fragmentation, grain size and eruption dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmith, Johanne; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Holm, Paul Martin; Larsen, Guðrún

2018-04-01

Katla volcano in Iceland produces hazardous large explosive basaltic eruptions on a regular basis, but very little quantitative data for future hazard assessments exist. Here details on fragmentation mechanism and eruption dynamics are derived from a study of deposit stratigraphy with detailed granulometry and grain morphology analysis, granulometric modeling, componentry and the new quantitative regularity index model of fragmentation mechanism. We show that magma/water interaction is important in the ash generation process, but to a variable extent. By investigating the large explosive basaltic eruptions from 1755 and 1625, we document that eruptions of similar size and magma geochemistry can have very different fragmentation dynamics. Our models show that fragmentation in the 1755 eruption was a combination of magmatic degassing and magma/water-interaction with the most magma/water-interaction at the beginning of the eruption. The fragmentation of the 1625 eruption was initially also a combination of both magmatic and phreatomagmatic processes, but magma/water-interaction diminished progressively during the later stages of the eruption. However, intense magma/water interaction was reintroduced during the final stages of the eruption dominating the fine fragmentation at the end. This detailed study of fragmentation changes documents that subglacial eruptions have highly variable interaction with the melt water showing that the amount and access to melt water changes significantly during eruptions. While it is often difficult to reconstruct the progression of eruptions that have no quantitative observational record, this study shows that integrating field observations and granulometry with the new regularity index can form a coherent model of eruption evolution.
Societal Impacts of Natural Decadal Climate Variability - The Pacemakers of Civilizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, V. M.

2017-12-01

Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) is one of the oldest areas of climate research. Building on centuries-long literature, a substantial body of research has emerged in the last two to three decades, focused on understanding causes, mechanisms, and impacts of DCV. Several DCV phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability (TAG for brevity), West Pacific Warm Pool variability, and decadal variability of El Niño-La Niña events - have been identified in observational records; and are associated with variability of worldwide atmospheric circulations, water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures; and oceanic circulations, salinity, and temperatures. Tree-ring based drought index data going back more than 700 years show presence of decadal hydrologic cycles (DHCs) in North America, Europe, and South Asia. Some of these cycles were associated with the rise and fall of civilizations, large-scale famines which killed millions of people, and acted as catalysts for socio-political revolutions. Instrument-measured data confirm presence of such worldwide DHCs associated with DCV phenomena; and show these DCV phenomena's worldwide impacts on river flows, crop productions, inland water-borne transportation, hydro-electricity generation, and agricultural irrigation. Fish catch data also show multiyear to decadal catch variability associated with these DCV phenomena in all oceans. This talk, drawn from my recently-published book (Mehta, V.M., 2017: Natural Decadal Climate Variability: Societal Impacts. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 326 pp.), will give an overview of worldwide impacts of DCV phenomena, with specific examples of socio-economic-political impacts. This talk will also describe national and international security implications of such societal impacts, and worldwide food security implications. The talk will end with an outline of needed actions to adapt to these impacts.
Detailed Analysis of the Microbial Population in Malaysian Spontaneous Cocoa Pulp Fermentations Reveals a Core and Variable Microbiota

PubMed Central

Mathawan, Melissa; Wittocx, Pieter-Jan; Saels, Veerle; Struyf, Nore; Bernaert, Herwig; Vrancken, Gino; Verstrepen, Kevin J.

2013-01-01

The fermentation of cocoa pulp is one of the few remaining large-scale spontaneous microbial processes in today's food industry. The microbiota involved in cocoa pulp fermentations is complex and variable, which leads to inconsistent production efficiency and cocoa quality. Despite intensive research in the field, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the microbiota is still lacking, especially for the expanding Asian production region. Here, we report a large-scale, comprehensive analysis of four spontaneous Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations across two time points in the harvest season and two fermentation methods. Our results show that the cocoa microbiota consists of a “core” and a “variable” part. The bacterial populations show a remarkable consistency, with only two dominant species, Lactobacillus fermentum and Acetobacter pasteurianus. The fungal diversity is much larger, with four dominant species occurring in all fermentations (“core” yeasts), and a large number of yeasts that only occur in lower numbers and specific fermentations (“variable” yeasts). Despite this diversity, a clear pattern emerges, with early dominance of apiculate yeasts and late dominance of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our results provide new insights into the microbial diversity in Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations and pave the way for the selection of starter cultures to increase efficiency and consistency. PMID:24358116
Linking crop yield anomalies to large-scale atmospheric circulation in Europe.

PubMed

Ceglar, Andrej; Turco, Marco; Toreti, Andrea; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2017-06-15

Understanding the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop growth and development represents a necessary step to assess the resilience of agricultural systems to changing climate conditions. This study investigates the links between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and crop yields in Europe, providing the basis to develop seasonal crop yield forecasting and thus enabling a more effective and dynamic adaptation to climate variability and change. Four dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability have been used: North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Scandinavian and Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia patterns. Large-scale atmospheric circulation explains on average 43% of inter-annual winter wheat yield variability, ranging between 20% and 70% across countries. As for grain maize, the average explained variability is 38%, ranging between 20% and 58%. Spatially, the skill of the developed statistical models strongly depends on the large-scale atmospheric variability impact on weather at the regional level, especially during the most sensitive growth stages of flowering and grain filling. Our results also suggest that preceding atmospheric conditions might provide an important source of predictability especially for maize yields in south-eastern Europe. Since the seasonal predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns is generally higher than the one of surface weather variables (e.g. precipitation) in Europe, seasonal crop yield prediction could benefit from the integration of derived statistical models exploiting the dynamical seasonal forecast of large-scale atmospheric circulation.
Within- and across-language spectral and temporal variability of vowels in different phonetic and prosodic contexts: Russian and Japanese

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilichinskaya, Yana D.; Hisagi, Miwako; Law, Franzo F.; Berkowitz, Shari; Ito, Kikuyo

2005-04-01

Contextual variability of vowels in three languages with large vowel inventories was examined previously. Here, variability of vowels in two languages with small inventories (Russian, Japanese) was explored. Vowels were produced by three female speakers of each language in four contexts: (Vba) disyllables and in 3-syllable nonsense words (gaC1VC2a) embedded within carrier sentences; contexts included bilabial stops (bVp) in normal rate sentences and alveolar stops (dVt) in both normal and rapid rate sentences. Dependent variables were syllable durations and formant frequencies at syllable midpoint. Results showed very little variation across consonant and rate conditions in formants for /i/ in both languages. Japanese short /u, o, a/ showed fronting (F2 increases) in alveolar context relative to labial context (1.3-2.0 Barks), which was more pronounced in rapid sentences. Fronting of Japanese long vowels was less pronounced (0.3 to 0.9 Barks). Japanese long/short vowel ratios varied with speaking style (syllables versus sentences) and speaking rate. All Russian vowels except /i/ were fronted in alveolar vs labial context (1.1-3.1 Barks) but showed little change in either spectrum or duration with speaking rate. Comparisons of these patterns of variability with American English, French and German vowel results will be discussed.
Effect of variable cerium concentration on photoluminescence behaviour in ZrO2 phosphor synthesized by combustion synthesis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, Vikas; Kaur, Jagjeet

2016-05-01

Present paper reports synthesis and characterization of trivalent cerium (Ce3+) doped zirconium dioxide (ZrO2) phosphors. Effect of variable concentration of cerium on photoluminescence (PL) is studied. Samples were prepared by combustion synthesis technique which is suitable for less time taking techniques also for large scale production for phosphors. Starting material used for sample preparation are Zr(NO3)3 and Ce(NO3)3 and urea used as a fuel. All prepared phosphor with variable concentration of Ce3+ (0.1 to 2mol%) was studied by photoluminescence analysis it is found that the excitation spectra of prepared phosphor shows broad excitation centred at 390nm. The excitation spectra with variable concentration of Ce3+ show strong peaks at 447nm. Spectrophotometric determinations of peaks are evaluated by Commission Internationale de I'Eclairage technique. Using this phosphor, the desired CIE values including emissions throughout the violet (390 nm) and blue (427 nm) of the spectra were achieved. Efficient blue light emitting diodes were fabricated using Ce3+ doped phosphor based on near ultraviolet (NUV) excited LED lights.
Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

PubMed

Gent, Peter R

2016-01-01

Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

Highly Variable Cycle Exhaust Model Test (HVC10)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Brenda; Wernet, Mark; Podboy, Gary; Bozak, Rick

2010-01-01

Results from acoustic and flow-field studies using the Highly Variable Cycle Exhaust (HVC) model were presented. The model consisted of a lobed mixer on the core stream, an elliptic nozzle on the fan stream, and an ejector. For baseline comparisons, the fan nozzle was replaced with a round nozzle and the ejector doors were removed from the model. Acoustic studies showed far-field noise levels were higher for the HVC model with the ejector than for the baseline configuration. Results from Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) studies indicated that large flow separation regions occurred along the ejector doors, thus restricting flow through the ejector. Phased array measurements showed noise sources located near the ejector doors for operating conditions where tones were present in the acoustic spectra.
Trends in Ocean Irradiance using a Radiative Model Forced with Terra Aerosols and Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy; Romanou, Anastasia

2010-01-01

Aerosol and cloud information from MODIS on Terra provide enhanced capability to understand surface irradiance over the oceans and its variability. These relationships can be important for ocean biology and carbon cycles. An established radiative transfer model, the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is used to describe ocean irradiance variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. The model is forced with information on aerosols and clouds from the MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua. A 7-year record (2000-2006) showed no trends in global ocean surface irradiance or photosynthetic available irradiance (PAR). There were significant (P<0.05) negative trends in the Mediterranean Sea, tropical Pacific) and tropical Indian Oceans, of -7.0, -5.0 and -2.7 W/sq m respectively. Global interannual variability was also modest. Regional interannual variability was quite large in some ocean basins, where monthly excursions from climatology were often >20 W/sq m. The trends using MODIS data contrast with results from OASIM using liquid water path estimates from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Here, a global trend of -2 W/sq m was observed, largely dues to a large negative trend in the Antarctic -12 W/sq m. These results suggest the importance of the choice of liquid water path data sets in assessments of medium-length trends in ocean surface irradiance. The choices also impact the evaluation of changes in ocean biogeochemistry.
Shipboard measurements and modeling of the distribution of CH4 and 13CH4 in the western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromley, T.; Allan, W.; Martin, R.; Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E.; Lowe, D. C.; Struthers, H.; Moss, R.

2012-02-01

We present observations of methane (CH4) mixing ratio and 13C/12C isotopic ratios in CH4 (δ13C) data from a collaborative shipboard project using bulk carrier ships sailing between Nelson, New Zealand, and Osaka, Japan, in the western Pacific Ocean. Measurements of the CH4 mixing ratio and δ13C in CH4were obtained from large clean-air samples collected in each 2.5° to 5° of latitude between 30°S and 30°N on eight voyages from 2004 to 2007. The data show large variations in CH4 mixing ratio in the tropical western Pacific, and data analysis suggests that these large variations are related to the positions and strengths of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, with variability in the sources playing a much smaller role. These measurements are compared with results from a modified version of the Unified Model (UMeth) general circulation model along two transects, one similar to the ship transects and another 18.75° to the east. Although UMeth was run to a steady state with the same sources and sinks each year, the gradient structures varied considerably from year to year, supporting our conclusion that variability in transport is a major driver for the observed variations in CH4. Simulations forced with an idealized representation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggest that a large component of the observed variability in latitudinal gradients of CH4 and its δ13C arises from intrinsic variability in the climate system that does not occur on ENSO time scales.
Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.
Including long-range dependence in integrate-and-fire models of the high interspike-interval variability of cortical neurons.

PubMed

Jackson, B Scott

2004-10-01

Many different types of integrate-and-fire models have been designed in order to explain how it is possible for a cortical neuron to integrate over many independent inputs while still producing highly variable spike trains. Within this context, the variability of spike trains has been almost exclusively measured using the coefficient of variation of interspike intervals. However, another important statistical property that has been found in cortical spike trains and is closely associated with their high firing variability is long-range dependence. We investigate the conditions, if any, under which such models produce output spike trains with both interspike-interval variability and long-range dependence similar to those that have previously been measured from actual cortical neurons. We first show analytically that a large class of high-variability integrate-and-fire models is incapable of producing such outputs based on the fact that their output spike trains are always mathematically equivalent to renewal processes. This class of models subsumes a majority of previously published models, including those that use excitation-inhibition balance, correlated inputs, partial reset, or nonlinear leakage to produce outputs with high variability. Next, we study integrate-and-fire models that have (nonPoissonian) renewal point process inputs instead of the Poisson point process inputs used in the preceding class of models. The confluence of our analytical and simulation results implies that the renewal-input model is capable of producing high variability and long-range dependence comparable to that seen in spike trains recorded from cortical neurons, but only if the interspike intervals of the inputs have infinite variance, a physiologically unrealistic condition. Finally, we suggest a new integrate-and-fire model that does not suffer any of the previously mentioned shortcomings. By analyzing simulation results for this model, we show that it is capable of producing output spike trains with interspike-interval variability and long-range dependence that match empirical data from cortical spike trains. This model is similar to the other models in this study, except that its inputs are fractional-gaussian-noise-driven Poisson processes rather than renewal point processes. In addition to this model's success in producing realistic output spike trains, its inputs have long-range dependence similar to that found in most subcortical neurons in sensory pathways, including the inputs to cortex. Analysis of output spike trains from simulations of this model also shows that a tight balance between the amounts of excitation and inhibition at the inputs to cortical neurons is not necessary for high interspike-interval variability at their outputs. Furthermore, in our analysis of this model, we show that the superposition of many fractional-gaussian-noise-driven Poisson processes does not approximate a Poisson process, which challenges the common assumption that the total effect of a large number of inputs on a neuron is well represented by a Poisson process.
Evaluation and time series analysis of mountain snow from MODIS and VIIRS fractional snow cover products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, K.; Rittger, K.; Painter, T. H.

2016-12-01

The continuation of large-scale snow cover records into the future is crucial for monitoring the impacts of global pressures such as climate change and weather variability on the cryosphere. With daily MODIS records since 2000 from a now ageing MODIS constellation (Terra & Aqua) and daily VIIRS records since 2012 from the Suomi-NPP platform, the consistency of information between the two optical sensors must be understood. First, we evaluated snow cover maps derived from both MODIS and VIIRS retrievals with coincident cloud-free Landsat 8 OLI maps across a range of locations. We found that both MODIS and VIIRS snow cover maps show similar errors when evaluated with Landsat OLI retrievals. Preliminary results also show a general agreement in regional snowline between the two sensors that is maintained during the spring snowline retreat where the proportion of mixed pixels is increased. The agreement between sensors supports the future use of VIIRS snow cover maps to continue the long-term record beyond the lifetime of MODIS. Second, we use snowline elevation to quantify large scale snow cover variability and to monitor potential changes in the rain/snow transition zone where climate change pressures may be enhanced. Despite the large inter-annual variability that is often observed in snow metrics, we expect that over the 16-year time series we will see a rise in seasonal elevation of the snowline and consequently an increasing rain/snow transition boundary in mountain environments. These results form the basis for global snowline elevation monitoring using optical remote sensing data and highlight regional differences in snowline elevation dynamics. The long-term variability in observed snowline elevation provides a recent climatology of mountain snowpack across several regions that will likely to be of interest to those interested in climate change impacts in mountain environments. This work will also be of interest to existing users of MODSCAG and VIIRSCAG snow cover products and those working in remote sensing of the mountain snowpack.
Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Van Lanen, Henny; Parajka, Juraj; Fleig, Anne; Ploum, Stefan

2016-04-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.
Drought and Snow: Analysis of Drivers, Processes and Impacts of Streamflow Droughts in Snow-Dominated Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Laaha, G.; Van Lanen, H.; Parajka, J.; Fleig, A. K.; Ploum, S.

2015-12-01

Around the world, drought events with severe socio-economic impacts seem to have a link with winter snowpack. That is the case for the current California drought, but analysing historical archives and drought impact databases for the US and Europe we found many impacts that can be attributed to snowpack anomalies. Agriculture and electricity production (hydropower) were found to be the sectors that are most affected by drought related to snow. In this study, we investigated the processes underlying hydrological drought in snow-dominated regions. We found that drought drivers are different in different regions. In Norway, more than 90% of spring streamflow droughts were preceded by below-average winter precipitation, while both winter air temperature and spring weather were indifferent. In Austria, however, spring streamflow droughts could only be explained by a combination of factors. For most events, winter and spring air temperatures were above average (70% and 65% of events, respectively), and winter and spring precipitation was below average (75% and 80%). Because snow storage results from complex interactions between precipitation and temperature and these variables vary strongly with altitude, snow-related drought drivers have a large spatial variability. The weather input is subsequently modified by land properties. Multiple linear regression between drought severity variables and a large number of catchment characteristics for 44 catchments in Austria showed that storage influences both drought duration and deficit volume. The seasonal storage of water in snow and glaciers was found to be a statistically important variable explaining streamflow drought deficit. Our drought impact analysis in Europe also showed that 40% of the selected drought impacts was caused by a combination of snow-related and other drought types. For example, the combination of a winter drought with a preceding or subsequent summer drought was reported to have a large effect on reservoir levels and, consequently, on drinking water and electricity production. Snow storage therefore, is an important factor to consider in drought monitoring, prediction and management.
Seasonal and diurnal variability of the meteor flux at high latitudes observed using PFISR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, J. J.; Janches, D.; Nicolls, M. J.; Heinselman, C. J.

2009-05-01

We report in this and a companion paper [Fentzke, J.T., Janches, D., Sparks, J.J., 2008. Latitudinal and seasonal variability of the micrometeor input function: A study using model predictions and observations from Arecibo and PFISR. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.015] a complete seasonal study of the micrometeor input function (MIF) at high latitudes using meteor head-echo radar observations performed with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This flux is responsible for a number of atmospheric phenomena; for example, it could be the source of meteoric smoke that is thought to act as condensation nuclei in the formation of ice particles in the polar mesosphere. The observations presented here were performed for full 24-h periods near the summer and winter solstices and spring and autumn equinoxes, times at which the seasonal variability of the MIF is predicted to be large at high latitudes [Janches, D., Heinselman, C.J., Chau, J.L., Chandran, A., Woodman, R., 2006. Modeling of the micrometeor input function in the upper atmosphere observed by High Power and Large Aperture Radars, JGR, 11, A07317, doi:10.1029/2006JA011628]. Precise altitude and radar instantaneous line-of-sight (radial) Doppler velocity information are obtained for each of the hundreds of events detected every day. We show that meteor rates, altitude, and radial velocity distributions have a large seasonal dependence. This seasonal variability can be explained by a change in the relative location of the meteoroid sources with respect to the observer. Our results show that the meteor flux into the upper atmosphere is strongly anisotropic and its characteristics must be accounted for when including this flux into models attempting to explain related aeronomical phenomena. In addition, the measured acceleration and received signal strength distribution do not seem to depend on season; which may suggest that these observed quantities do not have a strong dependence on entry angle.
A psychometric investigation of gender differences and common processes across Borderline and Antisocial Personality Disorders

PubMed Central

Chun, Seokjoon; Harris, Alexa; Carrion, Margely; Rojas, Elizabeth; Stark, Stephen; Lejuez, Carl; Lechner, William V.; Bornovalova, Marina A.

2016-01-01

The comorbidity between Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) and Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) is well-established, and the two disorders share many similarities. However, there are also differences across disorders: most notably, BPD is diagnosed more frequently in females and ASPD in males. We investigated if a) comorbidity between BPD and ASPD is attributable to two discrete disorders or the expression of common underlying processes, and b) if the model of comorbidity is true across sex. Using a clinical sample of 1400 drug users in residential substance abuse treatment, we tested three competing models to explore whether the comorbidity of ASPD and BPD should be represented by a single common factor, two correlated factors, or a bifactor structure involving a general and disorder-specific factors. Next, we tested whether our resulting model was meaningful by examining its relationship with criterion variables previously reported to be associated with BPD and ASPD. The bifactor model provided the best fit and was invariant across sex. Overall, the general factor of the bifactor model significantly accounted for a large percentage of the variance in criterion variables, whereas the BPD and AAB specific factors added little to the models. The association of the general and specific factor with all criterion variables was equal for males and females. Our results suggest common underlying vulnerability accounts for both the comorbidity between BPD and AAB (across sex), and this common vulnerability drives the association with other psychopathology and maladaptive behavior. This in turn has implications for diagnostic classification systems and treatment. General scientific summary This study found that, for both males and females, borderline and antisocial personality disorders show a large degree of overlap, and little uniqueness. The commonality between BPD and ASPD mainly accounted for associations with criterion variables. This suggests that BPD and ASPD show a large common core that accounts for their comorbidity. PMID:27808543
A global perspective on Glacial- to Interglacial variability change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2017-04-01

Changes in climate variability are more important for society than changes in the mean state alone. While we will be facing a large-scale shift of the mean climate in the future, its implications for climate variability are not well constrained. Here we quantify changes in temperature variability as climate shifted from the Last Glacial cold to the Holocene warm period. Greenland ice core oxygen isotope records provide evidence of this climatic shift, and are used as reference datasets in many palaeoclimate studies worldwide. A striking feature in these records is pronounced millennial variability in the Glacial, and a distinct reduction in variance in the Holocene. We present quantitative estimates of the change in variability on 500- to 1500-year timescales based on a global compilation of high-resolution proxy records for temperature which span both the Glacial and the Holocene. The estimates are derived based on power spectral analysis, and corrected using estimates of the proxy signal-to-noise ratios. We show that, on a global scale, variability at the Glacial maximum is five times higher than during the Holocene, with a possible range of 3-10 times. The spatial pattern of the variability change is latitude-dependent. While the tropics show no changes in variability, mid-latitude changes are higher. A slight overall reduction in variability in the centennial to millennial range is found in Antarctica. The variability decrease in the Greenland ice core oxygen isotope records is larger than in any other proxy dataset. These results therefore contradict the view of a globally quiescent Holocene following the instable Glacial, and imply that, in terms of centennial to millennial temperature variability, the two states may be more similar than previously thought.
DISCOVERY OF FAST, LARGE-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY OF V648 Car (=SS73-17)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Angeloni, R.; Di Mille, F.; Ferreira Lopes, C. E.

We report on the discovery of large-amplitude flickering from V648 Car (= SS73-17), a poorly studied object listed among the very few hard X-ray-emitting symbiotic stars. We performed millimagnitude precision optical photometry with the Swope Telescope at the Las Campanas Observatory, Chile, and found that V648 Car shows large U-band variability over timescales of minutes. To our knowledge, it exhibits some of the largest flickering of a symbiotic star ever reported. Our finding supports the hypothesis that symbiotic white dwarfs producing hard X-rays are predominantly powered by accretion, rather than quasi-steady nuclear burning, and have masses close to the Chandrasekharmore » limit. No significant periodicity is evident from the flickering light curve. The All Sky Automated Survey long-term V light curve suggests the presence of a tidally distorted giant accreting via Roche lobe overflow, and a binary period of {approx}520 days. On the basis of the outstanding physical properties of V648 Car as hinted at by its fast and long-term optical variability, as well as by its nature as a hard X-ray emitter, we therefore call for simultaneous follow-up observations in different bands, ideally combined with time-resolved optical spectroscopy.« less
Direct evidence that density-dependent regulation underpins the temporal stability of abundant species in a diverse animal community

PubMed Central

Henderson, Peter A.; Magurran, Anne E.

2014-01-01

To understand how ecosystems are structured and stabilized, and to identify when communities are at risk of damage or collapse, we need to know how the abundances of the taxa in the entire assemblage vary over ecologically meaningful timescales. Here, we present an analysis of species temporal variability within a single large vertebrate community. Using an exceptionally complete 33-year monthly time series following the dynamics of 81 species of fishes, we show that the most abundant species are least variable in terms of temporal biomass, because they are under density-dependent (negative feedback) regulation. At the other extreme, a relatively large number of low abundance transient species exhibit the greatest population variability. The high stability of the consistently common high abundance species—a result of density-dependence—is reflected in the observation that they consistently represent over 98% of total fish biomass. This leads to steady ecosystem nutrient and energy flux irrespective of the changes in species number and abundance among the large number of low abundance transient species. While the density-dependence of the core species ensures stability under the existing environmental regime, the pool of transient species may support long-term stability by replacing core species should environmental conditions change. PMID:25100702
[Health financing conditions in large cities in Brazil].

PubMed

de Lima, Luciana Dias; de Andrade, Carla Lourenço Tavares

2009-10-01

We evaluated the funding of the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) in municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. The main goal was to evaluate the impact of policies for health resource allocation within the municipal budget. A database was organized with information from revenues reported by municipalities in the Information System on Government Health Budgets (SIOPS) for the year 2005. Reported budgets were compared and correlated to the municipalities' geographic location. We conducted a cluster analysis to create more homogeneous groups according to health-related budget. The study showed a major variability among different regions and States, with varying degrees of municipal dependence on external funds. Although the large variability in sources may indicate multiple strategies for ensuring the necessary budget funds, the study suggests some barriers to public health funding in larger municipalities.
Faculty Use of Author Identifiers and Researcher Networking Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tran, Clara Y.; Lyon, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

This cross-sectional survey focused on faculty use and knowledge of author identifiers and researcher networking systems, and professional use of social media, at a large state university. Results from 296 completed faculty surveys representing all disciplines (9.3% response rate) show low levels of awareness and variable resource preferences. The…
Differential Epidemiology: IQ, Neuroticism, and Chronic Disease by the 50 U.S. States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pesta, Bryan J.; Bertsch, Sharon; McDaniel, Michael A.; Mahoney, Christine B.; Poznanski, Peter J.

2012-01-01

Current research shows that geo-political units (e.g., the 50 U.S. states) vary meaningfully on psychological dimensions like intelligence (IQ) and neuroticism (N). A new scientific discipline has also emerged, differential epidemiology, focused on how psychological variables affect health. We integrate these areas by reporting large correlations…
Arithmetic Performance of Children with Cerebral Palsy: The Influence of Cognitive and Motor Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Rooijen, Maaike; Verhoeven, Ludo; Smits, Dirk-Wouter; Ketelaar, Marjolijn; Becher, Jules G.; Steenbergen, Bert

2012-01-01

Children diagnosed with cerebral palsy (CP) often show difficulties in arithmetic compared to their typically developing peers. The present study explores whether cognitive and motor variables are related to arithmetic performance of a large group of primary school children with CP. More specifically, the relative influence of non-verbal…
Pliocene large-mammal assemblages from northern Chad: sampling and ecological structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fara, Emmanuel; Likius, Andossa; Mackaye, Hassane T.; Vignaud, Patrick; Brunet, Michel

2005-11-01

Numerous Pliocene large-mammal assemblages have been discovered in Chad over the last decade. They offer a unique opportunity to understand the settings in which important chapters of Hominid evolution took place in Central Africa. However, it is crucial to first investigate both sampling and taxonomic homogeneity for these Chadian assemblages because they occur over large sectors in a sandy desert that offers virtually no stratigraphic section. Using cluster analysis and ordination techniques, we show that the three Pliocene sectors from Chad are homogeneous and adequate sampling units. Previous stable isotope analyses on these assemblages have indicated that the environment became richer in C4 plants between approximately 5.3 and 3.5 3 Ma. To test whether this environmental change has affected the structure of palaeo-communities, we assigned body mass, trophic and locomotor eco-variables to mammal species from the three sectors. Statistical analysis shows that the overall ecological structure of the assemblages is not linked with the opening of the plant cover, and eco-variables show no temporal trend from the oldest sector to the youngest. For example, there is no significant change in the relative diversity of grazing and browsing taxa, although mixed feeders are less diversified in the youngest sector than in the preceding one. This pattern apparently does not result from potential biases such as methodological artefacts or taphonomic imprint. Instead, it seems that local heterogeneous environmental factors have played a major role in shaping the ecological spectrum of Chadian mammal palaeo-communities during the Pliocene.
Tidal and atmospheric forcing of the upper ocean in the Gulf of California. I - Sea surface temperature variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paden, Cynthia A.; Winant, Clinton D.; Abbott, Mark R.

1991-01-01

SST variability in the northern Gulf of California is examined on the basis of findings of two years of satellite infrared imagery (1984-1986). Empirical orthogonal functions of the temporal and spatial SST variance for 20 monthly mean images show that the dominant SST patterns are generated by spatially varying tidal mixing in the presence of seasonal heating and cooling. Atmospheric forcing of the northern gulf appears to occur over large spatial scales. Area-averaged SSTs for the Guaymas Basin, island region, and northern basin exhibit significant fluctuations which are highly correlated. These fluctuations in SST correspond to similar fluctuations in the air temperature which are related to synoptic weather events over the gulf. A regression analysis of the SST relative to the fortnightly tidal range shows that tidal mixing occurs over the sills in the island region as well as on the shallow northern shelf. Mixing over the sills occurs as a result of large breaking internal waves of internal hydraulic jumps which mix over water in the upper 300-500 m.
Flight responses by a migratory soaring raptor to changing meteorological conditions.

PubMed

Lanzone, Michael J; Miller, Tricia A; Turk, Philip; Brandes, David; Halverson, Casey; Maisonneuve, Charles; Tremblay, Junior; Cooper, Jeff; O'Malley, Kieran; Brooks, Robert P; Katzner, Todd

2012-10-23

Soaring birds that undertake long-distance migration should develop strategies to minimize the energetic costs of endurance flight. This is relevant because condition upon completion of migration has direct consequences for fecundity, fitness and thus, demography. Therefore, strong evolutionary pressures are expected for energy minimization tactics linked to weather and topography. Importantly, the minute-by-minute mechanisms birds use to subsidize migration in variable weather are largely unknown, in large part because of the technological limitations in studying detailed long-distance bird flight. Here, we show golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) migratory response to changing meteorological conditions as monitored by high-resolution telemetry. In contrast to expectations, responses to meteorological variability were stereotyped across the 10 individuals studied. Eagles reacted to increased wind speed by using more orographic lift and less thermal lift. Concomitantly, as use of thermals decreased, variation in flight speed and altitude also decreased. These results demonstrate how soaring migrant birds can minimize energetic expenditures, they show the context for avian decisions and choices of specific instantaneous flight mechanisms and they have important implications for design of bird-friendly wind energy.

Is rigorous retrospective harmonization possible? Application of the DataSHaPER approach across 53 large studies

PubMed Central

Fortier, Isabel; Doiron, Dany; Little, Julian; Ferretti, Vincent; L’Heureux, François; Stolk, Ronald P; Knoppers, Bartha M; Hudson, Thomas J; Burton, Paul R

2011-01-01

Background Proper understanding of the roles of, and interactions between genetic, lifestyle, environmental and psycho-social factors in determining the risk of development and/or progression of chronic diseases requires access to very large high-quality databases. Because of the financial, technical and time burdens related to developing and maintaining very large studies, the scientific community is increasingly synthesizing data from multiple studies to construct large databases. However, the data items collected by individual studies must be inferentially equivalent to be meaningfully synthesized. The DataSchema and Harmonization Platform for Epidemiological Research (DataSHaPER; http://www.datashaper.org) was developed to enable the rigorous assessment of the inferential equivalence, i.e. the potential for harmonization, of selected information from individual studies. Methods This article examines the value of using the DataSHaPER for retrospective harmonization of established studies. Using the DataSHaPER approach, the potential to generate 148 harmonized variables from the questionnaires and physical measures collected in 53 large population-based studies (6.9 million participants) was assessed. Variable and study characteristics that might influence the potential for data synthesis were also explored. Results Out of all assessment items evaluated (148 variables for each of the 53 studies), 38% could be harmonized. Certain characteristics of variables (i.e. relative importance, individual targeted, reference period) and of studies (i.e. observational units, data collection start date and mode of questionnaire administration) were associated with the potential for harmonization. For example, for variables deemed to be essential, 62% of assessment items paired could be harmonized. Conclusion The current article shows that the DataSHaPER provides an effective and flexible approach for the retrospective harmonization of information across studies. To implement data synthesis, some additional scientific, ethico-legal and technical considerations must be addressed. The success of the DataSHaPER as a harmonization approach will depend on its continuing development and on the rigour and extent of its use. The DataSHaPER has the potential to take us closer to a truly collaborative epidemiology and offers the promise of enhanced research potential generated through synthesized databases. PMID:21804097
Novel harmonic regularization approach for variable selection in Cox's proportional hazards model.

PubMed

Chu, Ge-Jin; Liang, Yong; Wang, Jia-Xuan

2014-01-01

Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq (1/2 < q < 1) regularizations, to select key risk factors in the Cox's proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL), the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods.
Natural and management influences on freshwater inflows and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary at monthly to interannual scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah

2002-01-01

Understanding the processes controlling the physics, chemistry, and biology of the San Francisco Estuary and their relation to climate variability is complicated by the combined influence on freshwater inflows of natural variability and upstream management. To distinguish these influences, alterations of estuarine inflow due to major reservoirs and freshwater pumping in the watershed were inferred from available data. Effects on salinity were estimated by using reconstructed estuarine inflows corresponding to differing levels of impairment to drive a numerical salinity model. Both natural and management inflow and salinity signals show strong interannual variability. Management effects raise salinities during the wet season, with maximum influence in spring. While year‐to‐year variations in all signals are very large, natural interannual variability can greatly exceed the range of management effects on salinity in the estuary.
On the role of "internal variability" on soil erosion assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Empirical data demonstrate that soil loss is highly non-unique with respect to meteorological or even runoff forcing and its frequency distributions exhibit heavy tails. However, all current erosion assessments do not describe the large associated uncertainties of temporal erosion variability and make unjustified assumptions by relying on central tendencies. Thus, the predictive skill of prognostic models and reliability of national-scale assessments have been repeatedly questioned. In this study, we attempt to reveal that the high variability in soil losses can be attributed to two sources: (1) 'external variability' referring to the uncertainties originating at macro-scale, such as climate, topography, and land use, which has been extensively studied; (2) 'geomorphic internal variability' referring to the micro-scale variations of pedologic properties (e.g., surface erodibility in soils with multi-sized particles), hydrologic properties (e.g., soil structure and degree of saturation), and hydraulic properties (e.g., surface roughness and surface topography). Using data and a physical hydraulic, hydrologic, and erosion and sediment transport model, we show that the geomorphic internal variability summarized by spatio-temporal variability in surface erodibility properties is a considerable source of uncertainty in erosion estimates and represents an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response. The conclusion is that predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components together with deterministic assessments, if they do not want to largely underestimate uncertainty. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education (2016R1D1A1B03931886).
Extreme Variables in Star Forming Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras Peña, Carlos Eduardo

2015-01-01

The notion that low- to intermediate-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) gain mass at a constant rate during the early stages of their evolution appears to be challenged by observations of YSOs suffering sudden increases of the rate at which they gain mass from their circumstellar discs. Also, this idea that stars spend most of their lifetime with a low accretion rate and gain most of their final mass during short-lived episodes of high accretion bursts, helps to solve some long-standing problems in stellar evolution. The original classification of eruptive variables divides them in two separate subclasses known as FU Orionis stars (FUors) and EX Lupi stars (EXors). In this classical view FUors are at an early evolutionary stage and are still gaining mass from their parent envelopes, whilst EXors are thought to be older objects only surrounded by an accretion disc. The problem with this classical view is that it excludes younger protostars which have higher accretion rates but are too deeply embedded in circumstellar matter to be observed at optical wavelengths. Optically invisible protostars have been observed to display large variability in the near-infrared. These and some recent discoveries of new eruptive variables, show characteristics that can be attributed to both of the optically-defined subclasses of eruptive variables. The new objects have been proposed to be part of a new class of eruptive variables. However, a more accepted scenario is that in fact the original classes only represent two extremes of the same phenomena. In this sense eruptive variability could be explained as arising from one physical mechanism, i.e. unsteady accretion, where a variation in the parameters of such mechanism can cause the different characteristics observed in the members of this class. With the aim of studying the incidence of episodic accretion among young stellar objects, and to characterize the nature of these eruptive variables we searched for high amplitude variability in two multi-epoch infrared surveys: the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey (GPS) and the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV). In order to further investigate the nature of the selected variable stars, we use photometric information arising from public surveys at near- to far-infrared wavelengths. In addition we have performed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up for a large subset of the samples arising from GPS and VVV. We analyse the widely separated two-epoch K-band photometry in the 5th, 7th and 8th data releases of the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. We find 71 stars with ΔK > 1 mag, including 2 previously known OH/IR stars and a Nova. Even though the mid-plane is mostly excluded from the dataset, we find the majority (66%) of our sample to be within known star forming regions (SFRs), with two large concentrations in the Serpens OB2 association (11 stars) and the Cygnus-X complex (27 stars). The analysis of the multi-epoch K-band photometry of 2010-2012 data from VVV covering the Galactic disc at |b| < 1° yields 816 high amplitude variables, which include known variables of different classes such as high mass X-ray binaries, Novae and eclipsing binaries among others. Remarkably, 65% of the sample are found concentrated towards areas of star formation, similar to the results from GPS. In both surveys, sources in SFRs show spectral energy distributions (SEDs) that support classification as YSOs. This indicates that YSOs dominate the Galactic population of high amplitude infrared variable stars at low luminosities and therefore likely dominate the total high amplitude population. Spectroscopic follow-up allows us to confirm the pre-main sequence nature of several GPS and VVV Objects. Most objects in both samples show spectroscopic signatures that can be attributed to YSOs undergoing high states of accretion, such as veiling of photospheric features and CO emission, or show FUor-like spectra. We also find a large fraction of objects with 2.12 μm H2 emission that can be explained as arising from shock-excited emission caused by molecular outflows. Whether these molecular outflows are related to outbursts events cannot be confirmed from our data. Adding the GPS and VVV spectroscopic results, we find that between 6 and 14 objects are new additions to the FUor class from their close resemblance to the near-infrared spectra of FUors, and at least 23 more objects are new additions to the eruptive variable class. For most of these we are unable to classify them into any of the original definitions for this variable class. In any case, we are adding up to 37 new stars to the eruptive variable class which would double the current number of known objects. We note that most objects are found to be deeply embedded optically invisible stars, thus increasing the number of objects belonging to this subclass by a much larger factor. In general, objects in our samples which are found to be likely eruptive variable stars show a mixture of characteristics that can be attributed to both of the optically-defined classes. This agrees well with the recent discoveries in the literature. Finally, we are able to derive a first rough estimate on the incidence of episodic accretion among class I YSOs in the star-forming complex G305. We find that ~9% of such objects are in a state of high accretion. This number is in agreement with previous theoretical and observational estimates among class I YSOs.
Nonspherically symmetric black string perturbations in the large dimension limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadhu, Amruta; Suneeta, Vardarajan

2016-06-01

We consider nonspherically symmetric perturbations of the uncharged black string/flat black brane in the large dimension (D) limit of general relativity. We express the perturbations in a simplified form using variables introduced by Ishibashi and Kodama. We apply the large D limit to the equations and show that this leads to decoupling of the equations in the near-horizon and asymptotic regions. It also enables use of matched asymptotic expansions to obtain approximate analytical solutions and to analyze stability of the black string/brane. For a large class of nonspherically symmetric perturbations, we prove that there are no instabilities in the large D limit. For the rest, we provide additional matching arguments that indicate that the black string/brane is stable. In the static limit, we show that for all nonspherically symmetric perturbations, there is no instability. This is proof that the Gross-Perry-Yaffe mode for semiclassical black hole perturbations is the unique unstable mode even in the large D limit. This work is also a direct analytical indication that the only instability of the black string is the Gregory-Laflamme instability.
The susceptibility of large river basins to orogenic and climatic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haedke, Hanna; Wittmann, Hella; von Blanckenburg, Friedhelm

2017-04-01

Large rivers are known to buffer pulses in sediment production driven by changes in climate as sediment is transported through lowlands. Our new dataset of in situ cosmogenic nuclide concentration and chemical composition of 62 sandy bedload samples from the world largest rivers integrates over 25% of Earth's terrestrial surface, distributed over a variety of climatic zones across all continents, and represents the millennial-scale denudation rate of the sediment's source area. We can show that these denudation rates do not respond to climatic forcing, but faithfully record orogenic forcing, when analyzed with respective variables representing orogeny (strain rate, relief, bouguer anomaly, free-air anomaly), and climate (runoff, temperature, precipitation) and basin properties (floodplain response time, drainage area). In contrast to this orogenic forcing of denudation rates, elemental bedload chemistry from the fine-grained portion of the same samples correlates with climate-related variables (precipitation, runoff) and floodplain response times. It is also well-known from previous compilations of river-gauged sediment loads that the short-term basin-integrated sediment export is also climatically controlled. The chemical composition of detrital sediment shows a climate control that can originate in the rivers source area, but this signal is likely overprinted during transfer through the lowlands because we also find correlation with floodplain response times. At the same time, cosmogenic nuclides robustly preserve the orogenic forcing of the source area denudation signal through of the floodplain buffer. Conversely, previous global compilations of cosmogenic nuclides in small river basins show the preservation of climate drivers in their analysis, but these are buffered in large lowland rivers. Hence, we can confirm the assumption that cosmogenic nuclides in large rivers are poorly susceptible to climate changes, but are at the same time highly suited to detect changes in orogenic forcing in their paleo sedimentary records.
Frequent pauses in Escherichia coli flagella elongation revealed by single cell real-time fluorescence imaging.

PubMed

Zhao, Ziyi; Zhao, Yifan; Zhuang, Xiang-Yu; Lo, Wei-Chang; Baker, Matthew A B; Lo, Chien-Jung; Bai, Fan

2018-05-14

The bacterial flagellum is a large extracellular protein organelle that extrudes from the cell surface. The flagellar filament is assembled from tens of thousands of flagellin subunits that are exported through the flagellar type III secretion system. Here, we measure the growth of Escherichia coli flagella in real time and find that, although the growth rate displays large variations at similar lengths, it decays on average as flagella lengthen. By tracking single flagella, we show that the large variations in growth rate occur as a result of frequent pauses. Furthermore, different flagella on the same cell show variable growth rates with correlation. Our observations are consistent with an injection-diffusion model, and we propose that an insufficient cytoplasmic flagellin supply is responsible for the pauses in flagellar growth in E. coli.
Dopaminergic modulation of hemodynamic signal variability and the functional connectome during cognitive performance.

PubMed

Alavash, Mohsen; Lim, Sung-Joo; Thiel, Christiane; Sehm, Bernhard; Deserno, Lorenz; Obleser, Jonas

2018-05-15

Dopamine underlies important aspects of cognition, and has been suggested to boost cognitive performance. However, how dopamine modulates the large-scale cortical dynamics during cognitive performance has remained elusive. Using functional MRI during a working memory task in healthy young human listeners, we investigated the effect of levodopa (l-dopa) on two aspects of cortical dynamics, blood oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal variability and the functional connectome of large-scale cortical networks. We here show that enhanced dopaminergic signaling modulates the two potentially interrelated aspects of large-scale cortical dynamics during cognitive performance, and the degree of these modulations is able to explain inter-individual differences in l-dopa-induced behavioral benefits. Relative to placebo, l-dopa increased BOLD signal variability in task-relevant temporal, inferior frontal, parietal and cingulate regions. On the connectome level, however, l-dopa diminished functional integration across temporal and cingulo-opercular regions. This hypo-integration was expressed as a reduction in network efficiency and modularity in more than two thirds of the participants and to different degrees. Hypo-integration co-occurred with relative hyper-connectivity in paracentral lobule and precuneus, as well as posterior putamen. Both, l-dopa-induced BOLD signal variability modulation and functional connectome modulations proved predictive of an individual's l-dopa-induced benefits in behavioral performance, namely response speed and perceptual sensitivity. Lastly, l-dopa-induced modulations of BOLD signal variability were correlated with l-dopa-induced modulation of nodal connectivity and network efficiency. Our findings underline the role of dopamine in maintaining the dynamic range of, and communication between, cortical systems, and their explanatory power for inter-individual differences in benefits from dopamine during cognitive performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The cumulative effects of forest disturbance and climate variability on baseflow in a large forested watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Wei, A.; Giles-Hansen, K.; Zhang, M.; Liu, W.

2016-12-01

Assessing how forest disturbance and climate change affect baseflow or groundwater discharge is critical for understanding water resource supply and protecting aquatic functions. Previous studies have mainly evaluated the effects of forest disturbance on streamflow, with rare attention on baseflow, particularly in large watersheds. However, studying this topic is challenging as it requires explicit inclusion of climate into assessment due to their interactions at any large watersheds. In this study, we used Upper Similkameen River watershed (USR) (1810 km2), located in the southern interior of British Columbia, Canada to examine how forest disturbance and climate variability affect baseflow. The conductivity mass balance method was first used for baseflow separation, and the modified double mass curves were then employed to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of forest disturbance and climate variability to annual baseflow. Our results showed that average annual baseflow and baseflow index (baseflow/streamflow) were about 85.2 ± 21.5 mm year-1 and 0.22 ± 0.05 for the study period of 1954-2013, respectively. The forest disturbance increased the annual baseflow of 18.4 mm, while climate variability decreased 19.4 mm. In addition, forest disturbance also shifted the baseflow regime with increasing of the spring baseflow and decreasing of the summer baseflow. We conclude that forest disturbance significantly altered the baseflow magnitudes and patterns, and its role in annual baseflow was equal to that caused by climate variability in the study watershed despite their opposite changing directions. The implications of our results are discussed in the context of future forest disturbance (or land cover changes) and climate changes.
Groundwater Variability in a Sandstone Catchment and Linkages with Large-scale Climatic Circulatio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Bradley, C.

2015-12-01

Groundwater is a crucial water resource that sustains river ecosystems and provides public water supply. Furthermore, during periods of prolonged high rainfall, groundwater-dominated catchments can be subject to protracted flooding. Climate change and associated projected increases in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes have implications for groundwater levels. This study builds on previous research undertaken on a Chalk catchment by investigating groundwater variability in a UK sandstone catchment: the Tern in Shropshire. In contrast to the Chalk, sandstone is characterised by a more lagged response to precipitation inputs; and, as such, it is important to determine the groundwater behaviour and its links with the large-scale climatic circulation to improve process understanding of recharge, groundwater level and river flow responses to hydroclimatological drivers. Precipitation, river discharge and groundwater levels for borehole sites in the Tern basin over 1974-2010 are analysed as the target variables; and we use monthly gridded reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR). First, groundwater variability is evaluated and associations with precipitation / discharge are explored using monthly concurrent and lagged correlation analyses. Second, gridded 20CR reanalysis data are used in composite and correlation analyses to identify the regions of strongest climate-groundwater association. Results show that reasonably strong climate-groundwater connections exist in the Tern basin, with a several months lag. These lags are associated primarily with the time taken for recharge waters to percolate through to the groundwater table. The uncovered patterns improve knowledge of large-scale climate forcing of groundwater variability and may provide a basis to inform seasonal prediction of groundwater levels, which would be useful for strategic water resource planning.
A Novel Real-Time Path Servo Control of a Hardware-in-the-Loop for a Large-Stroke Asymmetric Rod-Less Pneumatic System under Variable Loads.

PubMed

Lin, Hao-Ting

2017-06-04

This project aims to develop a novel large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system of a hardware-in-the-loop for path tracking control under variable loads based on the MATLAB Simulink real-time system. High pressure compressed air provided by the air compressor is utilized for the pneumatic proportional servo valve to drive the large stroke asymmetric rod-less pneumatic actuator. Due to the pressure differences between two chambers, the pneumatic actuator will operate. The highly nonlinear mathematical models of the large stroke asymmetric pneumatic system were analyzed and developed. The functional approximation technique based on the sliding mode controller (FASC) is developed as a controller to solve the uncertain time-varying nonlinear system. The MATLAB Simulink real-time system was a main control unit of a hardware-in-the-loop system proposed to establish driver blocks for analog and digital I/O, a linear encoder, a CPU and a large stroke asymmetric pneumatic rod-less system. By the position sensor, the position signals of the cylinder will be measured immediately. The measured signals will be viewed as the feedback signals of the pneumatic servo system for the study of real-time positioning control and path tracking control. Finally, real-time control of a large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system with measuring system, a large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system, data acquisition system and the control strategy software will be implemented. Thus, upgrading the high position precision and the trajectory tracking performance of the large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system will be realized to promote the high position precision and path tracking capability. Experimental results show that fifth order paths in various strokes and the sine wave path are successfully implemented in the test rig. Also, results of variable loads under the different angle were implemented experimentally.
A Novel Real-Time Path Servo Control of a Hardware-in-the-Loop for a Large-Stroke Asymmetric Rod-Less Pneumatic System under Variable Loads

PubMed Central

Lin, Hao-Ting

2017-01-01

This project aims to develop a novel large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system of a hardware-in-the-loop for path tracking control under variable loads based on the MATLAB Simulink real-time system. High pressure compressed air provided by the air compressor is utilized for the pneumatic proportional servo valve to drive the large stroke asymmetric rod-less pneumatic actuator. Due to the pressure differences between two chambers, the pneumatic actuator will operate. The highly nonlinear mathematical models of the large stroke asymmetric pneumatic system were analyzed and developed. The functional approximation technique based on the sliding mode controller (FASC) is developed as a controller to solve the uncertain time-varying nonlinear system. The MATLAB Simulink real-time system was a main control unit of a hardware-in-the-loop system proposed to establish driver blocks for analog and digital I/O, a linear encoder, a CPU and a large stroke asymmetric pneumatic rod-less system. By the position sensor, the position signals of the cylinder will be measured immediately. The measured signals will be viewed as the feedback signals of the pneumatic servo system for the study of real-time positioning control and path tracking control. Finally, real-time control of a large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system with measuring system, a large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system, data acquisition system and the control strategy software will be implemented. Thus, upgrading the high position precision and the trajectory tracking performance of the large stroke asymmetric pneumatic servo system will be realized to promote the high position precision and path tracking capability. Experimental results show that fifth order paths in various strokes and the sine wave path are successfully implemented in the test rig. Also, results of variable loads under the different angle were implemented experimentally. PMID:28587220
K-ras mutations and HLA-DR expression in large bowel adenomas.

PubMed Central

Norheim Andersen, S.; Breivik, J.; Løvig, T.; Meling, G. I.; Gaudernack, G.; Clausen, O. P.; Schjölberg, A.; Fausa, O.; Langmark, F.; Lund, E.; Rognum, T. O.

1996-01-01

A total of 72 sporadic colorectal adenomas in 56 patients were studied for the presence of point mutations in codons 12 and 13 of the K-ras gene and for HLA-DR antigen expression related to clinicopathological variables. Forty K-ras mutations in 39 adenomas were found (54%): 31 (77%) in codon 12 and nine (23%) in codon 13. There was a strong relationship between the incidence of K-ras mutations and adenoma type, degree of dysplasia and sex. The highest frequency of K-ras mutations was seen in large adenomas of the villous type with high-grade dysplasia. Fourteen out of 15 adenomas obtained from 14 women above 65 years of age carried mutations. HLA-DR positivity was found in 38% of the adenomas, large tumours and those with high-grade dysplasia having the strongest staining. Coexpression of K-ras mutations and HLA-DR was found significantly more frequently in large and highly dysplastic adenomas, although two-way analysis of variance showing size and grade of dysplasia to be the most important variable. None of the adenomas with low-grade dysplasia showed both K-ras mutation and HLA-DR positivity (P = 0.004). K-ras mutation is recognised as an early event in colorectal carcinogenesis. The mutation might give rise to peptides that may be presented on the tumour cell surface by class II molecules, and thereby induce immune responses against neoplastic cells. Images Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 PMID:8679466
Spatial Distribution of a Large Herbivore Community at Waterholes: An Assessment of Its Stability over Years in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Charbonnel, Anaïs; Dray, Stéphane; Madzikanda, Hillary; Fritz, Hervé

2016-01-01

The spatial structuring of populations or communities is an important driver of their functioning and their influence on ecosystems. Identifying the (in)stability of the spatial structure of populations is a first step towards understanding the underlying causes of these structures. Here we studied the relative importance of spatial vs. interannual variability in explaining the patterns of abundance of a large herbivore community (8 species) at waterholes in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe). We analyzed census data collected over 13 years using multivariate methods. Our results showed that variability in the census data was mostly explained by the spatial structure of the community, as some waterholes had consistently greater herbivore abundance than others. Some temporal variability probably linked to Park-scale migration dependent on annual rainfall was noticeable, however. Once this was accounted for, little temporal variability remained to be explained, suggesting that other factors affecting herbivore abundance over time had a negligible effect at the scale of the study. The extent of spatial and temporal variability in census data was also measured for each species. This study could help in projecting the consequences of surface water management, and more generally presents a methodological framework to simultaneously address the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal effects in driving the distribution of organisms across landscapes.
Functional variability of habitats within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta: Restoration implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lucas, L.V.; Cloern, J.E.; Thompson, J.K.; Monsen, N.E.

2002-01-01

We have now entered an era of large-scale attempts to restore ecological functions and biological communities in impaired ecosystems. Our knowledge base of complex ecosystems and interrelated functions is limited, so the outcomes of specific restoration actions are highly uncertain. One approach for exploring that uncertainty and anticipating the range of possible restoration outcomes is comparative study of existing habitats similar to future habitats slated for construction. Here we compare two examples of one habitat type targeted for restoration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. We compare one critical ecological function provided by these shallow tidal habitats - production and distribution of phytoplankton biomass as the food supply to pelagic consumers. We measured spatial and short-term temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass and growth rate and quantified the hydrodynamic and biological processes governing that variability. Results show that the production and distribution of phytoplankton biomass can be highly variable within and between nearby habitats of the same type, due to variations in phytoplankton sources, sinks, and transport. Therefore, superficially similar, geographically proximate habitats can function very differently, and that functional variability introduces large uncertainties into the restoration process. Comparative study of existing habitats is one way ecosystem science can elucidate and potentially minimize restoration uncertainties, by identifying processes shaping habitat functionality, including those that can be controlled in the restoration design.
Spatial Distribution of a Large Herbivore Community at Waterholes: An Assessment of Its Stability over Years in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Charbonnel, Anaïs; Dray, Stéphane; Madzikanda, Hillary; Fritz, Hervé

2016-01-01

The spatial structuring of populations or communities is an important driver of their functioning and their influence on ecosystems. Identifying the (in)stability of the spatial structure of populations is a first step towards understanding the underlying causes of these structures. Here we studied the relative importance of spatial vs. interannual variability in explaining the patterns of abundance of a large herbivore community (8 species) at waterholes in Hwange National Park (Zimbabwe). We analyzed census data collected over 13 years using multivariate methods. Our results showed that variability in the census data was mostly explained by the spatial structure of the community, as some waterholes had consistently greater herbivore abundance than others. Some temporal variability probably linked to Park-scale migration dependent on annual rainfall was noticeable, however. Once this was accounted for, little temporal variability remained to be explained, suggesting that other factors affecting herbivore abundance over time had a negligible effect at the scale of the study. The extent of spatial and temporal variability in census data was also measured for each species. This study could help in projecting the consequences of surface water management, and more generally presents a methodological framework to simultaneously address the relative importance of spatial vs. temporal effects in driving the distribution of organisms across landscapes. PMID:27074044
Age of oil palm plantations causes a strong change in surface biophysical variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabajo, Clifton; le Maire, Guerric; Knohl, Alexander

2016-04-01

Over the last decades, Indonesia has experienced dramatic land transformations with an expansion of oil palm plantations at the expense of tropical forests. As vegetation is a modifier of the climate near the ground these large-scale land transformations are expected to have major impacts on the surface biophysical variables i.e. surface temperature, albedo, and vegetation indices, e.g. the NDVI. Remote sensing data are needed to assess such changes at regional scale. We used 2 Landsat images from Jambi Province in Sumatra/Indonesia covering a chronosequence of oil palm plantations to study the 20 - 25 years life cycle of oil palm plantations and its relation with biophysical variables. Our results show large differences between the surface temperature of young oil palm plantations and forest (up to 9.5 ± 1.5 °C) indicating that the surface temperature is raised substantially after the establishment of oil palm plantations following the removal of forests. During the oil palm plantation lifecycle the surface temperature differences gradually decreases and approaches zero around an oil palm plantation age of 10 years. Similarly, NDVI increases and the albedo decreases approaching typical values of forests. Our results show that in order to assess the full climate effects of oil palm expansion biophysical processes play an important role and the full life cycle of oil palm plantations need to be considered.
YOUNG STELLAR CLUSTERS CONTAINING MASSIVE YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS IN THE VVV SURVEY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borissova, J.; Alegría, S. Ramírez; Kurtev, R.

The purpose of this research is to study the connections of the global properties of eight young stellar clusters projected in the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) ESO Large Public Survey disk area and their young stellar object (YSO) populations. The analysis is based on the combination of spectroscopic parallax-based reddening and distance determinations with main-sequence and pre-main-sequence ishochrone fitting to determine the basic parameters (reddening, age, distance) of the sample clusters. The lower mass limit estimations show that all clusters are low or intermediate mass (between 110 and 1800 M {sub ⊙}), the slope Γ of themore » obtained present-day mass functions of the clusters is close to the Kroupa initial mass function. The YSOs in the cluster’s surrounding fields are classified using low resolution spectra, spectral energy distribution fits with theoretical predictions, and variability, taking advantage of multi-epoch VVV observations. All spectroscopically confirmed YSOs (except one) are found to be massive (more than 8 M {sub ⊙}). Using VVV and GLIMPSE color–color cuts we have selected a large number of new YSO candidates, which are checked for variability and 57% are found to show at least low-amplitude variations. In few cases it was possible to distinguish between YSO and AGB classifications on the basis of light curves.« less
Large deflections and vibrations of a tip pulled beam with variable transversal section

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurka, P.; Izuka, J.; Gonzalez, P.; Teixeira, L. H.

2016-10-01

The use of long flexible probes in outdoors exploration vehicles, as opposed to short and rigid arms, is a convenient way to grant easier access to regions of scientific interest such as terrain slopes and cliff sides. Longer and taller arms can also provide information from a wider exploration horizon. The drawback of employing long and flexible exploration probes is the fact that its vibration is not easily controlled in real time operation by means of a simple analytic linear dynamic model. The numerical model required to describe the dynamics of a very long and flexible structure is often very large and of slow computational convergence. The present work proposes a simplified numerical model of a long flexible beam with variable cross section, which is statically deflected by a pulling cable. The paper compares the proposed simplified model with experimental data regarding the static and dynamic characteristics of a beam with variable cross section. The simulations show the effectiveness of the simplified dynamic model employed in an active control loop to suppress tip vibrations of the beam.

Scaling laws of strategic behavior and size heterogeneity in agent dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaglica, Gabriella; Lillo, Fabrizio; Moro, Esteban; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2008-03-01

We consider the financial market as a model system and study empirically how agents strategically adjust the properties of large orders in order to meet their preference and minimize their impact. We quantify this strategic behavior by detecting scaling relations between the variables characterizing the trading activity of different institutions. We also observe power-law distributions in the investment time horizon, in the number of transactions needed to execute a large order, and in the traded value exchanged by large institutions, and we show that heterogeneity of agents is a key ingredient for the emergence of some aggregate properties characterizing this complex system.
Composable security proof for continuous-variable quantum key distribution with coherent States.

PubMed

Leverrier, Anthony

2015-02-20

We give the first composable security proof for continuous-variable quantum key distribution with coherent states against collective attacks. Crucially, in the limit of large blocks the secret key rate converges to the usual value computed from the Holevo bound. Combining our proof with either the de Finetti theorem or the postselection technique then shows the security of the protocol against general attacks, thereby confirming the long-standing conjecture that Gaussian attacks are optimal asymptotically in the composable security framework. We expect that our parameter estimation procedure, which does not rely on any assumption about the quantum state being measured, will find applications elsewhere, for instance, for the reliable quantification of continuous-variable entanglement in finite-size settings.
Computational methods for structural load and resistance modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thacker, B. H.; Millwater, H. R.; Harren, S. V.

1991-01-01

An automated capability for computing structural reliability considering uncertainties in both load and resistance variables is presented. The computations are carried out using an automated Advanced Mean Value iteration algorithm (AMV +) with performance functions involving load and resistance variables obtained by both explicit and implicit methods. A complete description of the procedures used is given as well as several illustrative examples, verified by Monte Carlo Analysis. In particular, the computational methods described in the paper are shown to be quite accurate and efficient for a material nonlinear structure considering material damage as a function of several primitive random variables. The results show clearly the effectiveness of the algorithms for computing the reliability of large-scale structural systems with a maximum number of resolutions.
Using multi-scale sampling and spatial cross-correlation to investigate patterns of plant species richness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkhan, M.A.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2000-01-01

Land managers need better techniques to assess exoticplant invasions. We used the cross-correlationstatistic, IYZ, to test for the presence ofspatial cross-correlation between pair-wisecombinations of soil characteristics, topographicvariables, plant species richness, and cover ofvascular plants in a 754 ha study site in RockyMountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Using 25 largeplots (1000 m2) in five vegetation types, 8 of 12variables showed significant spatial cross-correlationwith at least one other variable, while 6 of 12variables showed significant spatial auto-correlation. Elevation and slope showed significant spatialcross-correlation with all variables except percentcover of native and exotic species. Percent cover ofnative species had significant spatialcross-correlations with soil variables, but not withexotic species. This was probably because of thepatchy distributions of vegetation types in the studyarea. At a finer resolution, using data from ten1 m2 subplots within each of the 1000 m2 plots, allvariables showed significant spatial auto- andcross-correlation. Large-plot sampling was moreaffected by topographic factors than speciesdistribution patterns, while with finer resolutionsampling, the opposite was true. However, thestatistically and biologically significant spatialcorrelation of native and exotic species could only bedetected with finer resolution sampling. We foundexotic plant species invading areas with high nativeplant richness and cover, and in fertile soils high innitrogen, silt, and clay. Spatial auto- andcross-correlation statistics, along with theintegration of remotely sensed data and geographicinformation systems, are powerful new tools forevaluating the patterns and distribution of native andexotic plant species in relation to landscape structure.
Response of Tropical Forests to Intense Climate Variability and Rainfall Anomaly over the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S.; Asefi, S.

2012-04-01

During the last decade, strong precipitation anomalies resulted from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, have caused extensive drying trends in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting water stress, tree mortality, biomass loss, and large-scale fire disturbance. In contrast, there have been no reports on large-scale disturbance in rainforests of west and central Africa, though being exposed to similar intensity of climate variability. Using data from Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) (1999-2010), and time series of rainfall observations from meteorological stations (1971-2000), we show that both Amazonian and African rainforest experienced strong precipitation anomalies from 2005-2010. We monitored the response of forest to the climate variability by analyzing the canopy water content observed by SeaWinds Ku-band Scatterometer (QSCAT) (1999-2009) and found that more than 70 million ha of forests in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy backscatter that persisted until the next major drought in 2010. This decline in backscatter has been attributed to loss of canopy water content and large-scale tree mortality corroborated by ground and airborne observations. However, no strong impacts was observed on tropical forests of Africa, suggesting that the African rainforest may have more resilience to droughts. We tested this hypothesis by examining the seasonal rainfall patterns, maximum water deficit, and the surface temperature variations. Results show that there is a complex pattern of low annual rainfall, moderate seasonality, and lower surface temperature in Central Africa compared to Amazonia, indicating potentially a lower evapotranspiration circumventing strong water deficits
Response of Tropical Forests to Intense Climate Variability and Rainfall Anomaly of Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S. S.; Asefi Najafabady, S.

2011-12-01

During the last decade, strong precipitation anomalies resulted from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, have caused extensive drying trends in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting water stress, tree mortality, biomass loss, and large-scale fire disturbance. In contrast, there have been no reports on large-scale disturbance in rainforests of west and central Africa, though being exposed to similar intensity of climate variability. Using data from Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) (1999-2010), and time series of rainfall observations from meteorological stations (1971-2000), we show that both Amazonian and African rainforest experienced strong precipitation anomalies from 2005-2010. We monitored the response of forest to the climate variability by analyzing the canopy water content observed by SeaWinds Ku-band Scatterometer (QSCAT) (1999-2009) and found that more than 70 million ha of forests in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy backscatter that persisted until the next major drought in 2010. This decline in backscatter has been attributed to loss of canopy water content and large-scale tree mortality corroborated by ground and airborne observations. However, no strong impacts was observed on tropical forests of Africa, suggesting that the African rainforest may have more resilience to droughts. We tested this hypothesis by examining the seasonal rainfall patterns, maximum water deficit, and the surface temperature variations. Results show that there is a complex pattern of low annual rainfall, moderate seasonality, and lower surface temperature in Central Africa compared to Amazonia, indicating potentially a lower evapotranspiration circumventing strong water deficits.
An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.
Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability are Correlated with Purpose in Life and Degree of Optimism in Anxiety Disorder Patients.

PubMed

Oh, Jihoon; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2018-04-01

Although heart rate variability (HRV) may be a crucial marker of mental health, how it is related to positive psychological factors (i.e. attitude to life and positive thinking) is largely unknown. Here we investigated the correlation of HRV linear and nonlinear dynamics with psychological scales that measured degree of optimism and happiness in patients with anxiety disorders. Results showed that low- to high-frequency HRV ratio (LF/HF) was increased and the HRV HF parameter was decreased in subjects who were more optimistic and who felt happier in daily living. Nonlinear analysis also showed that HRV dispersion and regulation were significantly correlated with the subjects' optimism and purpose in life. Our findings showed that HRV properties might be related to degree of optimistic perspectives on life and suggests that HRV markers of autonomic nervous system function could reflect positive human mind states.
Geographic variability of adherence to occupational injury treatment guidelines.

PubMed

Trujillo, Antonio J; Heins, Sara E; Anderson, Gerard F; Castillo, Renan C

2014-12-01

To determine the geographic variability and relationship between six occupational injury practice guidelines. Guidelines were developed by an expert panel and evaluated using workers' compensation claims data from a large, national insurance company (1999 to 2010). Percentage compliance for each guideline was adjusted for age and sex using linear regression and mapped by hospital referral region. Regions with the lowest compliance were identified, and correlations between guidelines were calculated. Compliance to the unnecessary home care guideline showed the lowest geographic variation (interquartile range: 97.3 to 99.0), and inappropriate shoulder bracing showed the highest variation (interquartile range: 77.7 to 90.8). Correlation between the guidelines was weak and not always positive. Different guidelines showed different degrees of geographic variation. Lack of correlation between guidelines suggests that these indicators were not associated with a single underlying health care quality or patient severity construct.
Large variable conductance heat pipe. Transverse header

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edelstein, F.

1975-01-01

The characteristics of gas-loaded, variable conductance heat pipes (VCHP) are discussed. The difficulties involved in developing a large VCHP header are analyzed. The construction of the large capacity VCHP is described. A research project to eliminate some of the problems involved in large capacity VCHP operation is explained.
Multi-objective optimization for evaluation of simulation fidelity for precipitation, cloudiness and insolation in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2016-12-01

Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables that are taken into account in studying regional climate. Nevertheless, how precipitation will respond to a changing climate and even its mean state in the current climate are not well represented in regional climate models (RCMs). Hence, comprehensive and mathematically rigorous methodologies to evaluate precipitation and related variables in multiple RCMs are required. The main objective of the current study is to evaluate the joint variability of climate variables related to model performance in simulating precipitation and condense multiple evaluation metrics into a single summary score. We use multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal tradeoff solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to characterize the joint representation of precipitation, cloudiness and insolation in RCMs participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-North America (CORDEX-NA). We also leverage ground observations, NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Overall, the quantitative comparison of joint probability density functions between the three variables indicates that performance of each model differs markedly between sub-regions and also shows strong seasonal dependence. Because of the large variability across the models, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections using only models showing relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimized multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than the arithmetic ensemble mean and may guide reliable future projections.
[The investigation of the influence of cryopreservation and inbreeding on the variability of morphological characteristics of the evening-primrose biennial (Oenothera biennis L.)].

PubMed

Chetviverikova, E P; Iashina, S G; Shabaeva, E V; Egorova, E F; Iashina, A V

2005-01-01

The effect of deep freezing of seeds at -196 degrees C (-320.8 degrees Fahrenheit) and inbreeding on the morphological characteristics of the evening-primrose biennal (Oenothera biennis L.), such as the size of plant parts and the amount of fruits, cauline nodes, and generative and vegetative shoots was investigated. The variation coefficients for these characteristics after treatment with low temperatures and inbreeding were calculated. It was shown that the characteristics of plant size show a low and a middle level of variability in the control group. The variation curves for these characteristics are similar to normal distribution curves. After stresses they slightly change or remain invariant. Large adventive shoots show a high level of variability. The distribution of the results in this case significantly differs from the normal. The branching of plants changes after both stress factors: the amount of all kinds of shoots decreases by half or even more.
Decision-making and planning in full recovery of anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Lindner, Susanne E; Fichter, Manfred M; Quadflieg, Norbert

2012-11-01

Based on findings of persisting neuropsychological impairments in women recovered from anorexia nervosa (rec AN), this study examined decision-making and planning, for achieving a desired goal, as central executive functions in a large sample of rec AN. The definition of recovery included physiological, behavioral, and psychological variables. A total of 100 rec AN women were compared to 100 healthy women, 1:1 matched for age and educational level. Decision-making was assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task and planning with the Tower of London. Expert interviews and self-ratings were used for assessing the inclusion/exclusion criteria and control variables. Compared to healthy controls, rec AN women were better in decision-making and worse in planning even after considering control variables. This study does not support results from other studies showing that rec AN participants perform better in decision-making. Results from this study show that planning is impaired even after full recovery from AN. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling

PubMed Central

Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W.

2016-01-01

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO–EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models. PMID:26777730
European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling.

PubMed

Bastos, Ana; Janssens, Ivan A; Gouveia, Célia M; Trigo, Ricardo M; Ciais, Philippe; Chevallier, Frédéric; Peñuelas, Josep; Rödenbeck, Christian; Piao, Shilong; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Running, Steven W

2016-01-18

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO-EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models.
Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

2016-12-01

Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.
The EPOCH Project. I. Periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 LMC database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dae-Won; Protopapas, Pavlos; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.; Byun, Yong-Ik; Chang, Seo-Won; Marquette, Jean-Baptiste; Shin, Min-Su

2014-06-01

The EPOCH (EROS-2 periodic variable star classification using machine learning) project aims to detect periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 light curve database. In this paper, we present the first result of the classification of periodic variable stars in the EROS-2 LMC database. To classify these variables, we first built a training set by compiling known variables in the Large Magellanic Cloud area from the OGLE and MACHO surveys. We crossmatched these variables with the EROS-2 sources and extracted 22 variability features from 28 392 light curves of the corresponding EROS-2 sources. We then used the random forest method to classify the EROS-2 sources in the training set. We designed the model to separate not only δ Scuti stars, RR Lyraes, Cepheids, eclipsing binaries, and long-period variables, the superclasses, but also their subclasses, such as RRab, RRc, RRd, and RRe for RR Lyraes, and similarly for the other variable types. The model trained using only the superclasses shows 99% recall and precision, while the model trained on all subclasses shows 87% recall and precision. We applied the trained model to the entire EROS-2 LMC database, which contains about 29 million sources, and found 117 234 periodic variable candidates. Out of these 117 234 periodic variables, 55 285 have not been discovered by either OGLE or MACHO variability studies. This set comprises 1906 δ Scuti stars, 6607 RR Lyraes, 638 Cepheids, 178 Type II Cepheids, 34 562 eclipsing binaries, and 11 394 long-period variables. catalog of these EROS-2 LMC periodic variable stars is available at http://stardb.yonsei.ac.kr and at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/566/A43
Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.

2009-10-01

One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.
Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model large ensemble in comparison with EURO-CORDEX results of heatwave and drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several indicators concerning heatwave frequency, duration and mean temperature a well as number and maximum length of dry periods (cons. days <1mm) are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.
Staging Sleep in Polysomnograms: Analysis of Inter-Scorer Variability

PubMed Central

Younes, Magdy; Raneri, Jill; Hanly, Patrick

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: To determine the reasons for inter-scorer variability in sleep staging of polysomnograms (PSGs). Methods: Fifty-six PSGs were scored (5-stage sleep scoring) by 2 experienced technologists, (first manual, M1). Months later, the technologists edited their own scoring (second manual, M2) based upon feedback from the investigators that highlighted differences between their scoring. The PSGs were then scored with an automatic system (Auto) and the technologists edited them, epoch-by-epoch (Edited-Auto). This resulted in 6 different manual scores for each PSG. Epochs were classified as scorer errors (one M1 score differed from the other 5 scores), scorer bias (all 3 scores of each technologist were similar, but differed from the other technologist) and equivocal (sleep scoring was inconsistent within and between technologists). Results: Percent agreement after M1 was 78.9% ± 9.0% and was unchanged after M2 (78.1% ± 9.7%) despite numerous edits (≈40/PSG) by the scorers. Agreement in Edited-Auto was higher (86.5% ± 6.4%, p < 1E−9). Scorer errors (< 2% of epochs) and scorer bias (3.5% ± 2.3% of epochs) together accounted for < 20% of M1 disagreements. A large number of epochs (92 ± 44/PSG) with scoring agreement in M1 were subsequently changed in M2 and/or Edited-Auto. Equivocal epochs, which showed scoring inconsistency, accounted for 28% ± 12% of all epochs, and up to 76% of all epochs in individual patients. Disagreements were largely between awake/NREM, N1/N2, and N2/N3 sleep. Conclusion: Inter-scorer variability is largely due to epochs that are difficult to classify. Availability of digitally identified events (e.g., spindles) or calculated variables (e.g., depth of sleep, delta wave duration) during scoring may greatly reduce scoring variability. Citation: Younes M, Raneri J, Hanly P. Staging sleep in polysomnograms: analysis of inter-scorer variability. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(6):885–894. PMID:27070243

Research on grid connection control technology of double fed wind generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Li

2017-01-01

The composition and working principle of variable speed constant frequency doubly fed wind power generation system is discussed in this thesis. On the basis of theoretical analysis and control on the modeling, the doubly fed wind power generation simulation control system is designed based on a TMS320F2407 digital signal processor (DSP), and has done a large amount of experimental research, which mainly include, variable speed constant frequency, constant pressure, Grid connected control experiment. The running results show that the design of simulation control system is reasonable and can meet the need of experimental research.
The Role of Climate Covariability on Crop Yields in the Conterminous United States

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Zhang, Xuesong; Huang, Maoyi; ...

2016-09-12

The covariability of temperature (T), precipitation (P) and radiation (R) is an important aspect in understanding the climate influence on crop yields. Here in this paper, we analyze county-level corn and soybean yields and observed climate for the period 1983–2012 to understand how growing-season (June, July and August) mean T, P and R influence crop yields jointly and in isolation across the CONterminous United States (CONUS). Results show that nationally averaged corn and soybean yields exhibit large interannual variability of 21% and 22%, of which 35% and 32% can be significantly explained by T and P, respectively. By including R,more » an additional of 5% in variability can be explained for both crops. Using partial regression analyses, we find that studies that ignore the covariability among T, P, and R can substantially overestimate the sensitivity of crop yields to a single climate factor at the county scale. Further analyses indicate large spatial variation in the relative contributions of different climate variables to the variability of historical corn and soybean yields. Finally, the structure of the dominant climate factors did not change substantially over 1983–2012, confirming the robustness of the findings, which have important implications for crop yield prediction and crop model validations.« less
Methane Seeps in the Gulf of Mexico: repeat acoustic surveying shows highly temporally and spatially variable venting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaumont, B. C.; Raineault, N.

2016-02-01

Scientists have recognized that natural seeps account for a large amount of methane emissions. Despite their widespread occurrence in areas like the Gulf of Mexico, little is known about the temporal variability and site-scale spatial variability of venting over time. We used repeat acoustic surveys to compare multiple days of seep activity and determine the changes in the locus of methane emission and plume height. The Sleeping Dragon site was surveyed with an EM302 multibeam sonar on three consecutive days in 2014 and 4 days within one week in 2015. The data revealed three distinctive plume regions. The locus of venting varied by 10-60 meters at each site. The plume that exhibited the least spatial variability in venting, was also the most temporally variable. This seep was present in one-third of survey dates in 2014 and three quarters of survey dates in 2015, showing high day-to-day variability. The plume height was very consistent for this plume, whereas the other plumes were more consistent temporally, but varied in maximum plume height detection by 25-85 m. The single locus of emission at the site that had high day-to-day variability may be due to a single conduit for methane release, which is sometimes closed off by carbonate or clathrate hydrate formation. In addition to day-to-day temporal variability, the locus of emission at one site was observed to shift from a point-source in 2014 to a diffuse source in 2015 at a nearby location. ROV observations showed that one of the seep sites that closed off temporarily, experienced an explosive breakthrough of gas, releasing confined methane and blowing out rock. The mechanism that causes on/off behavior of certain plumes, combined with the spatial variability of the locus of methane release shown in this study may point to carbonate or hydrate formation in the seep plumbing system and should be further investigated.
Lathosterol to cholesterol ratio in serum predicts cholesterol lowering response to plant sterol consumption in a dual center, randomized, single-blind placebo controlled trial

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Benefits of plant sterols (PS) for cholesterol lowering are compromised by large variability in efficacy across individuals. High fractional cholesterol synthesis measured by deuterium incorporation has been associated with non-response to PS consumption; however, prospective studies showing this as...
Tests for Long-Run Relationships in Hardwood Lumber Prices

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2003-01-01

Hardwood lumber prices are unique because of the large number of marketable species and variability of prices across species. Previous research showed that long-run fashion decisions regarding species selection may be influenced by price, so the interaction between fashion and species price may act to keep prices (hence, demand) of different hardwood species together...
Elements of Terrorism Preparedness in Local Police Agencies, 2003-2007: Impact of Vulnerability, Organizational Characteristics, and Contagion in the Post-9/11 Era

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Aki; Roberts, John M., Jr.; Liedka, Raymond V.

2012-01-01

Different elements of local police agencies' terrorism preparedness may be associated with different organizational/environmental variables. We use 2003-2007 data (showing considerable adoption and desistance of practices) on medium-to-large-sized local agencies to examine relationships between contingency (vulnerability, organizational…
Solution Strategies and Achievement in Dutch Complex Arithmetic: Latent Variable Modeling of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hickendorff, Marian; Heiser, Willem J.; van Putten, Cornelis M.; Verhelst, Norman D.

2009-01-01

In the Netherlands, national assessments at the end of primary school (Grade 6) show a decline of achievement on problems of complex or written arithmetic over the last two decades. The present study aims at contributing to an explanation of the large achievement decrease on complex division, by investigating the strategies students used in…
Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.
Quasar spectral variability from the XMM-Newton serendipitous source catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafinelli, R.; Vagnetti, F.; Middei, R.

2017-04-01

Context. X-ray spectral variability analyses of active galactic nuclei (AGN) with moderate luminosities and redshifts typically show a "softer when brighter" behaviour. Such a trend has rarely been investigated for high-luminosity AGNs (Lbol ≳ 1044 erg/s), nor for a wider redshift range (e.g. 0 ≲ z ≲ 5). Aims: We present an analysis of spectral variability based on a large sample of 2700 quasars, measured at several different epochs, extracted from the fifth release of the XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalogue. Methods: We quantified the spectral variability through the parameter β defined as the ratio between the change in the photon index Γ and the corresponding logarithmic flux variation, β = -ΔΓ/Δlog FX. Results: Our analysis confirms a softer when brighter behaviour for our sample, extending the previously found general trend to high luminosity and redshift. We estimate an ensemble value of the spectral variability parameter β = -0.69 ± 0.03. We do not find dependence of β on redshift, X-ray luminosity, black hole mass or Eddington ratio. A subsample of radio-loud sources shows a smaller spectral variability parameter. There is also some change with the X-ray flux, with smaller β (in absolute value) for brighter sources. We also find significant correlations for a small number of individual sources, indicating more negative values for some sources.
Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less
Natural trophic variability in a large, oligotrophic, near-pristine lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Talia; Jensen, Olaf P.; Weidel, Brian C.; Chandra, Sudeep

2015-01-01

Conclusions drawn from stable isotope data can be limited by an incomplete understanding of natural isotopic variability over time and space. We quantified spatial and temporal variability in fish carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in Lake Hövsgöl, Mongolia, a large, remote, oligotrophic lake with an unusually species-poor fish community. The fish community demonstrated a high degree of trophic level overlap. Variability in δ13C was inversely related to littoral-benthic dependence, with pelagic species demonstrating more δ13C variability than littoral-benthic species. A mixed effects model suggested that space (sampling location) had a greater impact than time (collection year) on both δ13C and δ15N variability. The observed variability in Lake Hövsgöl was generally greater than isotopic variability documented in other large, oligotrophic lakes, similar to isotopic shifts attributed to introduced species, and less than isotopic shifts attributed to anthropogenic chemical changes such as eutrophication. This work complements studies on isotopic variability and changes in other lakes around the world.
An analysis of variability in the manufacturing of dexosomes: implications for development of an autologous therapy.

PubMed

Patel, Sanjay; Mehta-Damani, Anita; Shu, Helen; Le Pecq, Jean-Bernard

2005-10-20

Dexosomes are nanometer-size vesicles released by dendritic-cells, possessing much of the cellular machinery required to stimulate an immune response (i.e. MHC Class I and II). The ability of patient-derived dexosomes loaded with tumor antigens to elicit anti-tumor activity is currently being evaluated in clinical trials. Unlike conventional biologics, where variability between lots of product arises mostly from the manufacturing process, an autologous product has inherent variability in the starting material due to heterogeneity in the human population. In an effort to assess the variability arising from the dexosome manufacturing process versus the human starting material, 144 dexosome preparations from normal donors (111) and cancer patients (33) from two Phase I clinical trials were analyzed. A large variability in the quantity of dexosomes (measured as the number of MHC Class II molecules) produced between individual lots was observed ( > 50-fold). An analysis of intra-lot variability shows that the manufacturing process introduces relatively little of this variability. To identify the source(s) of variability arising from the human starting material, distributions of the key parameters involved in dexosome production were established, and a model created. Computer simulations using this model were performed, and compared to the actual data observed. The main conclusion from these simulations is that the number of cells collected per individual and the productivity of these cells of are the principal sources of variability in the production of Class II. The approach described here can be extended to other autologous therapies in general to evaluate control of manufacturing processes. Moreover, this analysis of process variability is directly applicable to production at a commercial scale, since the large scale manufacture of autologous products entails an exact process replication rather than scale-up in volume, as is the case with traditional drugs or biologics. Copyright 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Synthetic maps of human gene frequencies in Europeans.

PubMed

Menozzi, P; Piazza, A; Cavalli-Sforza, L

1978-09-01

Multivarate techniques can be used to condense the information for a large number of loci and alleles into one or a few synthetic variables. The geographic distribution of synthetic variables can be plotted by the same technique used in mapping the gene frequency of a single allele. Synthetic maps were constructed for Europe and the Near East, with the use of principal components to condense the information of 38 independent alleles from ten loci. The first principal component summarizes close to 30% of the total information and shows gradients. Maps thus constructed show clines in remarkable agreement with those expected on the basis of the spread of early farming in Europe, thus supporting the hypothesis that this spread was a demic spread rather than a cultural diffusion of farming technology.
Heart rate variability in adolescents with functional hypothalamic amenorrhea and anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Bomba, Monica; Corbetta, Fabiola; Gambera, Alessandro; Nicosia, Franco; Bonini, Luisa; Neri, Francesca; Tremolizzo, Lucio; Nacinovich, Renata

2014-02-28

Aim of this study consisted in assessing the 24-h heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of autonomic nervous system (ANS) imbalance, in 21 adolescents with functional hypothalamic amenorrhea (FHA, 11 normogonadotropic, N-FHA, and 10 hypogonadotropic, Hy-FHA) compared to 21 patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) and 21 controls. As expected, subjects with AN showed a significant dysregulation in multiple HRV parameters, while Hy-FHA patients presented with a dysregulation in a few domains (SDNN, HFr), which was not present in girls with N-FHA, who showed values largely similar to controls. FHA might represent part of the AN biological spectrum, and a link between these two conditions might exist, possibly related to the degree of psychological and/or hormonal dysfunction. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.
Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region.
Small collision systems: Theory overview on cold nuclear matter effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armesto, Néstor

2018-02-01

Many observables measured at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider show a smooth transition between proton-proton and protonnucleus collisions (small systems), and nucleus-nucleus collisions (large systems), when represented versus some variable like the multiplicity in the event. In this contribution I review some of the physics mechanisms, named cold nuclear matter effects, that may lead to a collective-like behaviour in small systems beyond the macroscopic description provided by relativistic hydrodynamics. I focus on the nuclear modification of parton densities, single inclusive particle production and correlations.
Genetic variability in CHMP2B and frontotemporal dementia.

PubMed

Momeni, Parastoo; Rogaeva, Ekaterina; Van Deerlin, Vivianna; Yuan, Wuxing; Grafman, Jordan; Tierney, Michael; Huey, Edward; Bell, Jason; Morris, Chris M; Kalaria, Rajesh N; van Rensburg, Susan J; Niehaus, Dana; Potocnik, Felix; Kawarai, Toshitaka; Salehi-Rad, Shabnam; Sato, Christine; St George-Hyslop, Peter; Hardy, John

2006-01-01

A nonsense/protein chain-terminating mutation in the CHMP2B gene has recently been reported as a cause of frontotemporal dementia (FTD) in the single large family known to show linkage to chromosome 3. Screening for mutations in this gene in a large series of FTD families and individual patients led to the identification of a protein-truncating mutation in 2 unaffected members of an Afrikaner family with FTD, but not in their affected relatives. The putative pathogenicity of CHMP2B mutations for dementia is discussed.
The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-01-01

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:21969578
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika M.; Hall, David M.

2016-09-01

Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.
The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-10-18

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

A Variable Step-Size Proportionate Affine Projection Algorithm for Identification of Sparse Impulse Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ligang; Fukumoto, Masahiro; Saiki, Sachio; Zhang, Shiyong

2009-12-01

Proportionate adaptive algorithms have been proposed recently to accelerate convergence for the identification of sparse impulse response. When the excitation signal is colored, especially the speech, the convergence performance of proportionate NLMS algorithms demonstrate slow convergence speed. The proportionate affine projection algorithm (PAPA) is expected to solve this problem by using more information in the input signals. However, its steady-state performance is limited by the constant step-size parameter. In this article we propose a variable step-size PAPA by canceling the a posteriori estimation error. This can result in high convergence speed using a large step size when the identification error is large, and can then considerably decrease the steady-state misalignment using a small step size after the adaptive filter has converged. Simulation results show that the proposed approach can greatly improve the steady-state misalignment without sacrificing the fast convergence of PAPA.
A Rotational Pressure-Correction Scheme for Incompressible Two-Phase Flows with Open Boundaries

PubMed Central

Dong, S.; Wang, X.

2016-01-01

Two-phase outflows refer to situations where the interface formed between two immiscible incompressible fluids passes through open portions of the domain boundary. We present several new forms of open boundary conditions for two-phase outflow simulations within the phase field framework, as well as a rotational pressure correction based algorithm for numerically treating these open boundary conditions. Our algorithm gives rise to linear algebraic systems for the velocity and the pressure that involve only constant and time-independent coefficient matrices after discretization, despite the variable density and variable viscosity of the two-phase mixture. By comparing simulation results with theory and the experimental data, we show that the method produces physically accurate results. We also present numerical experiments to demonstrate the long-term stability of the method in situations where large density contrast, large viscosity contrast, and backflows occur at the two-phase open boundaries. PMID:27163909
The effect of age, sex, and physical activity on entheseal morphology in a contemporary Italian skeletal collection.

PubMed

Milella, Marco; Giovanna Belcastro, Maria; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Mariotti, Valentina

2012-07-01

Entheseal changes are traditionally included in a large array of skeletal features commonly referred to as "skeletal markers of activity." However, medical studies and recent anthropological analyses of identified skeletal series suggest a complex combination of physiological and biomechanical factors underlying the variability of such "markers." The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between age, sex, physical activity, and entheseal variability. To this end, 23 postcranial entheses are examined in a large (N = 484) Italian contemporary skeletal series using standardized scoring methods. The sample comprises subjects of known age, sex and, mostly, occupation. Results show a strong relationship between age and entheseal changes. Differences between sexes are also highlighted, while the effects of physical activity appear moderate. Altogether, our study indicates that entheseal morphology primarily reflects the age of an individual, while correlation with lifetime activity remains ambiguous. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Exact closed-form solution of the hyperbolic equation of string vibrations with material relaxation properties taken into account

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudinov, I. V.; Kudinov, V. A.

2014-09-01

The differential equation of damped string vibrations was obtained with the finite speed of extension and strain propagation in the Hooke's law formula taken into account. In contrast to the well-known equations, the obtained equation contains the first and third time derivatives of the displacement and the mixed derivative with respect to the space and time variables. Separation of variables was used to obtain its exact closed-form solution, whose analysis showed that, for large values of the relaxation coefficient, the string return to the initial state after its escape from equilibrium is accompanied by high-frequency low-amplitude damped vibrations, which occur on the initial time interval only in the region of positive displacements. And in the limit, for some large values of the relaxation coefficient, the string return to the initial state occurs practically without any oscillatory process.
Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, X.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Qiu, B.; Yu, Z.; DU, Y.

2016-12-01

Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height (SSH) in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated using altimetric data, and solutions to 1½-layer (first-baroclinic-mode) and linear, continuously stratified (LCS; multi-baroclinic-mode) models. The amplitude and dominant period of SSH variability differ regionally. Large-amplitude variability is found along the west coast of Sumatra, in a zonal band across the BoB centered along 5°N, east of Sri Lanka, and in the northwestern BoB. Along the Sumatran west coast, SSH variability peaks at 30-60 days, 90 days, and 180 days. Along 5°N and east of Sri Lanka, 30-60-day variability is dominant. Sensitivity experiments using a nonlinear version of the 1½-layer model forced by realistic winds reproduce the observed patterns of intraseasonal variability in the southern BoB. At 30-60 days, the solutions show that eddies (nonlinear Rossby waves) propagating from the east, rather than local wind forcing, account for most of the variance east of Sri Lanka; furthermore, they demonstrate that the variance is significantly enhance by the nonlinear transfer of 90-120-day energy into the intraseasonal band. The LCS solutions show that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the SSH variance at 90-180 days. The second-baroclinic-mode dominates the SSH variance at 180 days, a consequence of basin resonance and strong wind forcing.
How ocean lateral mixing changes Southern Ocean variability in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradal, M. A. S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Thomas, J. L.

2016-02-01

The lateral mixing of tracers represents a major uncertainty in the formulation of coupled climate models. The mixing of tracers along density surfaces in the interior and horizontally within the mixed layer is often parameterized using a mixing coefficient ARedi. The models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 exhibit more than an order of magnitude range in the values of this coefficient used within the Southern Ocean. The impacts of such uncertainty on Southern Ocean variability have remained unclear, even as recent work has shown that this variability differs between different models. In this poster, we change the lateral mixing coefficient within GFDL ESM2Mc, a coarse-resolution Earth System model that nonetheless has a reasonable circulation within the Southern Ocean. As the coefficient varies from 400 to 2400 m2/s the amplitude of the variability varies significantly. The low-mixing case shows strong decadal variability with an annual mean RMS temperature variability exceeding 1C in the Circumpolar Current. The highest-mixing case shows a very similar spatial pattern of variability, but with amplitudes only about 60% as large. The suppression of mixing is larger in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean relatively to the Pacific sector. We examine the salinity budgets of convective regions, paying particular attention to the extent to which high mixing prevents the buildup of low-saline waters that are capable of shutting off deep convection entirely.
The impact of large-scale, long-term optical surveys on pulsating star research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soszyński, Igor

2017-09-01

The era of large-scale photometric variability surveys began a quarter of a century ago, when three microlensing projects - EROS, MACHO, and OGLE - started their operation. These surveys initiated a revolution in the field of variable stars and in the next years they inspired many new observational projects. Large-scale optical surveys multiplied the number of variable stars known in the Universe. The huge, homogeneous and complete catalogs of pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, RR Lyrae stars, or long-period variables, offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate and test the accuracy of various distance indicators, to trace the three-dimensional structure of the Milky Way and other galaxies, to discover exotic types of intrinsically variable stars, or to study previously unknown features and behaviors of pulsators. We present historical and recent findings on various types of pulsating stars obtained from the optical large-scale surveys, with particular emphasis on the OGLE project which currently offers the largest photometric database among surveys for stellar variability.
Novel Harmonic Regularization Approach for Variable Selection in Cox's Proportional Hazards Model

PubMed Central

Chu, Ge-Jin; Liang, Yong; Wang, Jia-Xuan

2014-01-01

Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq (1/2 < q < 1) regularizations, to select key risk factors in the Cox's proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL), the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods. PMID:25506389
Global linkages between teleconnection patterns and the terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlin, Kyla M.; Ault, Toby R.

2018-07-01

Interannual variability in the global carbon cycle is largely due to variations in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems, yet linkages between climate variability and variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle are not well understood at the global scale. Using a 30-year satellite record of semi-monthly leaf area index (LAI), we show that four modes of climate variability - El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode - strongly impact interannual vegetation growth patterns, with 68% of the land surface impacted by at least one of these teleconnection patterns, yet the spatial distribution of these impacts is heterogeneous. Considering the patterns' impacts by biome, none has an exclusively positive or negative relationship with LAI. Our findings imply that future changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of teleconnection patterns will lead to diverse changes to the terrestrial biosphere and the global carbon cycle.
Longterm AGN variability in the BASS sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartori, Lia; Schawinski, Kevin; Koss, Michael; Treister, Ezequiel

2018-01-01

The study of AGN variability on different timescales can provide important information about black hole accretion physics, as well as the black hole – host galaxy interaction and coevolution. Galaxies with extended AGN photoionised clouds, e.g. IC 2497 and “Hanny’s Voorwerp”, are a great laboratory to study AGN variability over 100 kyr timescales, especially in the case where the AGN is currently dropping in luminosity. Based on a large sample of optically elusive AGN in the BASS sample we suggest that AGN may ‘flicker’ on and off 100-1000 times on ~10^5 yr timescales, and that optically elusive AGN may provide information about the switching on phase. In this talk I will show how longslit and IFU observations of BASS sources, combined with high quality hard X-ray observations and black hole demographic information, can help constraining the AGN lifecycle, and ultimately what is the physics driving AGN variability.
Investigation of the Short-Time Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randriambelo, Tantely; Baray, Jean-Luc; Baldy, Serge; Thompson, Anne M.; Oltmans, Samuel; Keckhut, Philippe

2003-01-01

Since 1998, a ground based tropospheric ozone lidar has been running at Reunion Island and has been involved with a daily measurement campaign that was performed in the latter part of the biomass burning season, during November-December 1999. The averaged ozone profile obtained during November-December 1 999 agrees well with averaged ozone profile obtained from ozonesondes launch at Reunion during November-December (1992- 2001). Comparing weekly sonde launches (part of the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes: SHADOZ program) with the daily ground-based lidar observations shows that some striking features of the day to day variability profiles are not observed in the sonde measurements. Ozone profiles respond to the nature of disturbances which vary from the one day to the next. The vertical ozone distribution at Reunion is examined as a function of prevailing atmospheric circulation. Backtrajectories show that most of the enhanced ozone crossed over biomass burning and convectively active regions in Madagascar and the southern African continent. The analyses of the meteorological data show that ozone stratification profiles are in agreement with the movement of the synoptical situations in November-December 1999. Three different sequences of transport are explained using wind fields. The first sequence from 23 to 25 November is characterized by Northerly transport, the second sequence from 26 to 30 November, the air masses are influenced by meridional transport. The third sequence from 2 to 6 December is characterized by westerly transport associated with the subtropical jet stream. The large standard deviations of lidar profiles in the middle and upper troposphere are in agreement with the upper wind variabilities which evidence passing ridge and trough disturbances. During the transition period between the dry season and the wet season, multiple ozone sources including stratosphere-troposphere exchanges, convection and biomass burning contribute to tropospheric ozone at Reunion Island through sporadic events characterized by a large spatial and temporal variability.
Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

2015-09-01

Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.
PBSM3D: A finite volume, scalar-transport blowing snow model for use with variable resolution meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Wayand, N. E.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.; Spiteri, R. J.

2017-12-01

Blowing snow redistribution results in heterogeneous snowcovers that are ubiquitous in cold, windswept environments. Capturing this spatial and temporal variability is important for melt and runoff simulations. Point scale blowing snow transport models are difficult to apply in fully distributed hydrological models due to landscape heterogeneity and complex wind fields. Many existing distributed snow transport models have empirical wind flow and/or simplified wind direction algorithms that perform poorly in calculating snow redistribution where there are divergent wind flows, sharp topography, and over large spatial extents. Herein, a steady-state scalar transport model is discretized using the finite volume method (FVM), using parameterizations from the Prairie Blowing Snow Model (PBSM). PBSM has been applied in hydrological response units and grids to prairie, arctic, glacier, and alpine terrain and shows a good capability to represent snow redistribution over complex terrain. The FVM discretization takes advantage of the variable resolution mesh in the Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) to ensure efficient calculations over small and large spatial extents. Variable resolution unstructured meshes preserve surface heterogeneity but result in fewer computational elements versus high-resolution structured (raster) grids. Snowpack, soil moisture, and streamflow observations were used to evaluate CHM-modelled outputs in a sub-arctic and an alpine basin. Newly developed remotely sensed snowcover indices allowed for validation over large basins. CHM simulations of snow hydrology were improved by inclusion of the blowing snow model. The results demonstrate the key role of snow transport processes in creating pre-melt snowcover heterogeneity and therefore governing post-melt soil moisture and runoff generation dynamics.
Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.
Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales.

PubMed

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R Lawrence

2016-11-11

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.
Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R. Lawrence

2016-01-01

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia’s hydroclimate variability from Tonnel’naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel’naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia. PMID:27833133
Variability of microchip capillary electrophoresis with conductivity detection.

PubMed

Tantra, Ratna; Robinson, Kenneth; Sikora, Aneta

2014-02-01

Microfluidic CE with conductivity detection platforms could have an impact on the future development of smaller, faster and portable devices. However, for the purpose of reliable identification and quantification, there is a need to understand the degree of irreproducibility associated with the analytical technique. In this study, a protocol was developed to remove baseline drift problems sometimes observed in such devices. The protocol, which consisted of pre-conditioning steps prior to analysis, was used to further assess measurement variability from 24 individual microchips fabricated from six separate batches of glass substrate. Results show acceptable RSD percentage for retention time measurements but large variability in their corresponding peak areas (with some microchips having variability of ∼50%). Sources of variability were not related to substrate batch but possibly to a number of factors such as applied voltage fluctuations or variations in microchannel quality, for example surface roughness that will subsequently affect microchannel dimensions. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Estimation of Monthly Near Surface Air Temperature Using Geographically Weighted Regression in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M. M.; He, G. J.; Zhang, Z. M.; Zhang, Z. J.; Liu, X. G.

2018-04-01

Near surface air temperature (NSAT) is a primary descriptor of terrestrial environment conditions. The availability of NSAT with high spatial resolution is deemed necessary for several applications such as hydrology, meteorology and ecology. In this study, a regression-based NSAT mapping method is proposed. This method is combined remote sensing variables with geographical variables, and uses geographically weighted regression to estimate NSAT. The altitude was selected as geographical variable; and the remote sensing variables include land surface temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference vegetation index (NDVI). The performance of the proposed method was assessed by predict monthly minimum, mean, and maximum NSAT from point station measurements in China, a domain with a large area, complex topography, and highly variable station density, and the NSAT maps were validated against the meteorology observations. Validation results with meteorological data show the proposed method achieved an accuracy of 1.58 °C. It is concluded that the proposed method for mapping NSAT is very operational and has good precision.
On the performance of exponential integrators for problems in magnetohydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Einkemmer, Lukas; Tokman, Mayya; Loffeld, John

2017-02-01

Exponential integrators have been introduced as an efficient alternative to explicit and implicit methods for integrating large stiff systems of differential equations. Over the past decades these methods have been studied theoretically and their performance was evaluated using a range of test problems. While the results of these investigations showed that exponential integrators can provide significant computational savings, the research on validating this hypothesis for large scale systems and understanding what classes of problems can particularly benefit from the use of the new techniques is in its initial stages. Resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling is widely used in studying large scale behavior of laboratory and astrophysical plasmas. In many problems numerical solution of MHD equations is a challenging task due to the temporal stiffness of this system in the parameter regimes of interest. In this paper we evaluate the performance of exponential integrators on large MHD problems and compare them to a state-of-the-art implicit time integrator. Both the variable and constant time step exponential methods of EPIRK-type are used to simulate magnetic reconnection and the Kevin-Helmholtz instability in plasma. Performance of these methods, which are part of the EPIC software package, is compared to the variable time step variable order BDF scheme included in the CVODE (part of SUNDIALS) library. We study performance of the methods on parallel architectures and with respect to magnitudes of important parameters such as Reynolds, Lundquist, and Prandtl numbers. We find that the exponential integrators provide superior or equal performance in most circumstances and conclude that further development of exponential methods for MHD problems is warranted and can lead to significant computational advantages for large scale stiff systems of differential equations such as MHD.
A new metric for measuring condition in large predatory sharks.

PubMed

Irschick, D J; Hammerschlag, N

2014-09-01

A simple metric (span condition analysis; SCA) is presented for quantifying the condition of sharks based on four measurements of body girth relative to body length. Data on 104 live sharks from four species that vary in body form, behaviour and habitat use (Carcharhinus leucas, Carcharhinus limbatus, Ginglymostoma cirratum and Galeocerdo cuvier) are given. Condition shows similar levels of variability among individuals within each species. Carcharhinus leucas showed a positive relationship between condition and body size, whereas the other three species showed no relationship. There was little evidence for strong differences in condition between males and females, although more male sharks are needed for some species (e.g. G. cuvier) to verify this finding. SCA is potentially viable for other large marine or terrestrial animals that are captured live and then released. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Interannual Variability of the Patagonian Shelf Circulation and Cross-Shelf Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combes, V.; Matano, R. P.

2016-02-01

Observational studies have already established the general mean circulation and hydrographic characteristics of the Patagonian shelf waters using data from in situ observation, altimetry and more recently from the Aquarius satellite sea surface salinity, but the paucity of those data in time or below the surface leave us with an incomplete picture of the shelf circulation and of its variability. This study discusses the variability of the Patagonian central shelf circulation and off-shelf transport using a high-resolution model experiment for the period 1979-2012. The model solution shows high skill in reproducing the best-known aspects of the shelf and deep-ocean circulations. This study links the variability of the central shelf circulation and off-shelf transport to the wind variability, southern shelf transport variability and large-scale current variability. We find that while the inner and central shelf circulation are principally wind driven, the contribution of the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence (BMC) variability becomes important in the outer shelf and along the shelf break. The model also indicates that whereas the location of the off-shelf transport is controlled by the BMC, its variability is modulated by the southern shelf transport. The variability of the subtropical shelf front, where the fresh southern shelf waters encounters the saline northern shelf waters, is also presented in this study.
A KPI-based process monitoring and fault detection framework for large-scale processes.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Shardt, Yuri A W; Chen, Zhiwen; Yang, Xu; Ding, Steven X; Peng, Kaixiang

2017-05-01

Large-scale processes, consisting of multiple interconnected subprocesses, are commonly encountered in industrial systems, whose performance needs to be determined. A common approach to this problem is to use a key performance indicator (KPI)-based approach. However, the different KPI-based approaches are not developed with a coherent and consistent framework. Thus, this paper proposes a framework for KPI-based process monitoring and fault detection (PM-FD) for large-scale industrial processes, which considers the static and dynamic relationships between process and KPI variables. For the static case, a least squares-based approach is developed that provides an explicit link with least-squares regression, which gives better performance than partial least squares. For the dynamic case, using the kernel representation of each subprocess, an instrument variable is used to reduce the dynamic case to the static case. This framework is applied to the TE benchmark process and the hot strip mill rolling process. The results show that the proposed method can detect faults better than previous methods. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
An Arctic source for the Great Salinity Anomaly - A simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955-1975

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa

1993-01-01

The paper employs a fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model to study the interannual variability of sea ice during the period 1955-1975 and to explain the large variability of the ice extent in the Greenland and Iceland seas during the late 1960s. The model is used to test the contention of Aagaard and Carmack (1989) that the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) was a consequence of the anomalously large ice export in 1968. The high-latitude ice-ocean circulation changes due to wind field changes are explored. The ice export event of 1968 was the largest in the simulation, being about twice as large as the average and corresponding to 1600 cu km of excess fresh water. The simulations suggest that, besides the above average ice export to the Greenland Sea, there was also fresh water export to support the larger than average ice cover. The model results show the origin of the GSA to be in the Arctic, and support the view that the Arctic may play an active role in climate change.
On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

2014-09-01

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.
Evaluation of fine soil moisture data from the IFloodS (NASA GPM) Ground Validation campaign using a fully-distributed ecohydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastola, S.; Dialynas, Y. G.; Arnone, E.; Bras, R. L.

2014-12-01

The spatial variability of soil, vegetation, topography, and precipitation controls hydrological processes, consequently resulting in high spatio-temporal variability of most of the hydrological variables, such as soil moisture. Limitation in existing measuring system to characterize this spatial variability, and its importance in various application have resulted in a need of reconciling spatially distributed soil moisture evolution model and corresponding measurements. Fully distributed ecohydrological model simulates soil moisture at high resolution soil moisture. This is relevant for range of environmental studies e.g., flood forecasting. They can also be used to evaluate the value of space born soil moisture data, by assimilating them into hydrological models. In this study, fine resolution soil moisture data simulated by a physically-based distributed hydrological model, tRIBS-VEGGIE, is compared with soil moisture data collected during the field campaign in Turkey river basin, Iowa. The soil moisture series at the 2 and 4 inch depth exhibited a more rapid response to rainfall as compared to bottom 8 and 20 inch ones. The spatial variability in two distinct land surfaces of Turkey River, IA, reflects the control of vegetation, topography and soil texture in the characterization of spatial variability. The comparison of observed and simulated soil moisture at various depth showed that model was able to capture the dynamics of soil moisture at a number of gauging stations. Discrepancies are large in some of the gauging stations, which are characterized by rugged terrain and represented, in the model, through large computational units.
Smart Energy Cryo-refrigerator Technology for the next generation Very Large Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagna, Stefano

2018-01-01

We describe a “smart energy” cryocooler technology architecture for the next generation Very Large Array that makes use of multiple variable frequency cold heads driven from a single variable speed air cooled compressor. Preliminary experiments indicate that the compressor variable flow control, advanced diagnostics, and the cryo-refrigerator low vibration, provide a unique energy efficient capability for the very large number of antennas that will be employed in this array.
PG 1553+113: Five Years Of Observations With Magic

DOE PAGES

J., Aleksić

2012-03-05

We present the results of five years (2005-2009) of MAGIC observations of the BL Lac object PG 1553+113 at very high energies (VHEs; E > 100 GeV). Power-law fits of the individual years are compatible with a steady mean photon index Γ = 4.27 ± 0.14. In the last three years of data, the flux level above 150 GeV shows a clear variability (probability of constant flux < 0.001%). The flux variations are modest, lying in the range from 4% to 11% of the Crab Nebula flux. Simultaneous optical data also show only modest variability that seems to be correlatedmore » with VHE gamma-ray variability. We also performed a temporal analysis of (all available) simultaneous Fermi/Large Area Telescope data of PG 1553+113 above 1 GeV, which reveals hints of variability in the 2008-2009 sample. Finally, we present a combination of the mean spectrum measured at VHEs with archival data available for other wavelengths. The mean spectral energy distribution can be modeled with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, which gives the main physical parameters governing the VHE emission in the blazar jet.« less
Maintenance of Genetic Variability under Strong Stabilizing Selection: A Two-Locus Model

PubMed Central

Gavrilets, S.; Hastings, A.

1993-01-01

We study a two locus model with additive contributions to the phenotype to explore the relationship between stabilizing selection and recombination. We show that if the double heterozygote has the optimum phenotype and the contributions of the loci to the trait are different, then any symmetric stabilizing selection fitness function can maintain genetic variability provided selection is sufficiently strong relative to linkage. We present results of a detailed analysis of the quadratic fitness function which show that selection need not be extremely strong relative to recombination for the polymorphic equilibria to be stable. At these polymorphic equilibria the mean value of the trait, in general, is not equal to the optimum phenotype, there exists a large level of negative linkage disequilibrium which ``hides'' additive genetic variance, and different equilibria can be stable simultaneously. We analyze dependence of different characteristics of these equilibria on the location of optimum phenotype, on the difference in allelic effect, and on the strength of selection relative to recombination. Our overall result that stabilizing selection does not necessarily eliminate genetic variability is compatible with some experimental results where the lines subject to strong stabilizing selection did not have significant reductions in genetic variability. PMID:8514145
Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.
Improving Synoptic and Intra-Seasonnal Variability in CFS via a Better Representation of Organized Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouider, B.; Goswami, B. B.; Majda, A.; Krishna, R. P. M. M.; Mukhopadhyay, P.

2016-12-01

Improvements in the capability of climate models to realistically capture the synoptic and intra-seasonnal variability, associated with tropical rainfall, are conditioned by improvement in the representation of the subgrid variability due to organized convection and the underlying two-way interactions through multiple scales and thus breaking with the quasi-equilibrium bottleneck. By design, the stochastic multi-cloud model (SMCM) mimics the life cycle of organized tropical convective systems and the interactions of the associated cloud types with each other and with large scales, as it is observed. It is based a lattice particle interaction model for predefined microscopic (subgrid) sites that make random transitions from one cloud type to another conditional to the large scale state. In return the SMCM provides the cloud type area fractions on the form of a Markov chain model which can be run in parallel with the climate model without any significant computational overhead. The SMCM was previously successfully tested in both reduced complexity tropical models and an aquaplanet global atmospheric model. Here, we report for the first time the results of its implementation in the fully coupled NCEP climate model (CFSv2) through the used of prescribed vertical profiles of heating and drying obtained from observations. While many known biases in CFSv2 have been slightly improved there are no noticeable degradation in the simulated mean climatology. Nonetheless, comparison with observations show that the improvements in terms of synoptic and intra-seasonnal variability are spectacular, despite the fact that CFSv2 is one of the best models in this regard. In particular, while CFSv2 exaggerates the intra-seasonnal variance at the expense of the synoptic contribution, the CFS-SMCM shows a good balance between the two as in the observations.
An extensive spectroscopic time series of three Wolf-Rayet stars - I. The lifetime of large-scale structures in the wind of WR 134

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldoretta, E. J.; St-Louis, N.; Richardson, N. D.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Eversberg, T.; Hill, G. M.; Shenar, T.; Artigau, É.; Gauza, B.; Knapen, J. H.; Kubát, J.; Kubátová, B.; Maltais-Tariant, R.; Muñoz, M.; Pablo, H.; Ramiaramanantsoa, T.; Richard-Laferrière, A.; Sablowski, D. P.; Simón-Díaz, S.; St-Jean, L.; Bolduan, F.; Dias, F. M.; Dubreuil, P.; Fuchs, D.; Garrel, T.; Grutzeck, G.; Hunger, T.; Küsters, D.; Langenbrink, M.; Leadbeater, R.; Li, D.; Lopez, A.; Mauclaire, B.; Moldenhawer, T.; Potter, M.; dos Santos, E. M.; Schanne, L.; Schmidt, J.; Sieske, H.; Strachan, J.; Stinner, E.; Stinner, P.; Stober, B.; Strandbaek, K.; Syder, T.; Verilhac, D.; Waldschläger, U.; Weiss, D.; Wendt, A.

2016-08-01

During the summer of 2013, a 4-month spectroscopic campaign took place to observe the variabilities in three Wolf-Rayet stars. The spectroscopic data have been analysed for WR 134 (WN6b), to better understand its behaviour and long-term periodicity, which we interpret as arising from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the wind. By analysing the variability of the He II λ5411 emission line, the previously identified period was refined to P = 2.255 ± 0.008 (s.d.) d. The coherency time of the variability, which we associate with the lifetime of the CIRs in the wind, was deduced to be 40 ± 6 d, or ˜18 cycles, by cross-correlating the variability patterns as a function of time. When comparing the phased observational grey-scale difference images with theoretical grey-scales previously calculated from models including CIRs in an optically thin stellar wind, we find that two CIRs were likely present. A separation in longitude of Δφ ≃ 90° was determined between the two CIRs and we suggest that the different maximum velocities that they reach indicate that they emerge from different latitudes. We have also been able to detect observational signatures of the CIRs in other spectral lines (C IV λλ5802,5812 and He I λ5876). Furthermore, a DAC was found to be present simultaneously with the CIR signatures detected in the He I λ5876 emission line which is consistent with the proposed geometry of the large-scale structures in the wind. Small-scale structures also show a presence in the wind, simultaneously with the larger scale structures, showing that they do in fact co-exist.
Source Attribution and Interannual Variability of Arctic Pollution in Spring Constrained by Aircraft (ARCTAS, ARCPAC) and Satellite (AIRS) Observations of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, J. A.; Jacob, D. J.; Purdy, M. T.; Kopacz, M.; LeSager, P.; Carouge, C.; Holmes, C. D.; Yantosca, R. M.; Batchelor, R. L.; Strong, K.;

2009-01-01

We use aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC campaigns in April 2008 together with multiyear (2003-2008) CO satellite data from the AIRS instrument and a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to better understand the sources, transport, and interannual variability of pollution in the Arctic in spring. Model simulation of the aircraft data gives best estimates of CO emissions in April 2008 of 26 Tg month-1 for Asian anthropogenic, 9.1 for European anthropogenic, 4.2 for North American anthropogenic, 9.3 for Russian biomass burning (anomalously large that year), and 21 for Southeast Asian biomass burning. We find that Asian anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of Arctic CO pollution everywhere except in surface air where European anthropogenic emissions are of similar importance. Synoptic pollution influences in the Arctic free troposphere include contributions of comparable magnitude from Russian biomass burning and from North American, European, and Asian anthropogenic sources. European pollution dominates synoptic variability near the surface. Analysis of two pollution events sampled by the aircraft demonstrates that AIRS is capable of observing pollution transport to the Arctic in the mid-troposphere. The 2003-2008 record of CO from AIRS shows that interannual variability averaged over the Arctic cap is very small. AIRS CO columns over Alaska are highly correlated with the Ocean Nino Index, suggesting a link between El Nino and northward pollution transport. AIRS shows lower-than-average CO columns over Alaska during April 2008, despite the Russian fires, due to a weakened Aleutian Low hindering transport from Asia and associated with the moderate 2007-2008 La Nina. This suggests that Asian pollution influence over the Arctic may be particularly large under strong El Nino conditions.

Combined model of intrinsic and extrinsic variability for computational network design with application to synthetic biology.

PubMed

Toni, Tina; Tidor, Bruce

2013-01-01

Biological systems are inherently variable, with their dynamics influenced by intrinsic and extrinsic sources. These systems are often only partially characterized, with large uncertainties about specific sources of extrinsic variability and biochemical properties. Moreover, it is not yet well understood how different sources of variability combine and affect biological systems in concert. To successfully design biomedical therapies or synthetic circuits with robust performance, it is crucial to account for uncertainty and effects of variability. Here we introduce an efficient modeling and simulation framework to study systems that are simultaneously subject to multiple sources of variability, and apply it to make design decisions on small genetic networks that play a role of basic design elements of synthetic circuits. Specifically, the framework was used to explore the effect of transcriptional and post-transcriptional autoregulation on fluctuations in protein expression in simple genetic networks. We found that autoregulation could either suppress or increase the output variability, depending on specific noise sources and network parameters. We showed that transcriptional autoregulation was more successful than post-transcriptional in suppressing variability across a wide range of intrinsic and extrinsic magnitudes and sources. We derived the following design principles to guide the design of circuits that best suppress variability: (i) high protein cooperativity and low miRNA cooperativity, (ii) imperfect complementarity between miRNA and mRNA was preferred to perfect complementarity, and (iii) correlated expression of mRNA and miRNA--for example, on the same transcript--was best for suppression of protein variability. Results further showed that correlations in kinetic parameters between cells affected the ability to suppress variability, and that variability in transient states did not necessarily follow the same principles as variability in the steady state. Our model and findings provide a general framework to guide design principles in synthetic biology.
Combined Model of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Variability for Computational Network Design with Application to Synthetic Biology

PubMed Central

Toni, Tina; Tidor, Bruce

2013-01-01

Biological systems are inherently variable, with their dynamics influenced by intrinsic and extrinsic sources. These systems are often only partially characterized, with large uncertainties about specific sources of extrinsic variability and biochemical properties. Moreover, it is not yet well understood how different sources of variability combine and affect biological systems in concert. To successfully design biomedical therapies or synthetic circuits with robust performance, it is crucial to account for uncertainty and effects of variability. Here we introduce an efficient modeling and simulation framework to study systems that are simultaneously subject to multiple sources of variability, and apply it to make design decisions on small genetic networks that play a role of basic design elements of synthetic circuits. Specifically, the framework was used to explore the effect of transcriptional and post-transcriptional autoregulation on fluctuations in protein expression in simple genetic networks. We found that autoregulation could either suppress or increase the output variability, depending on specific noise sources and network parameters. We showed that transcriptional autoregulation was more successful than post-transcriptional in suppressing variability across a wide range of intrinsic and extrinsic magnitudes and sources. We derived the following design principles to guide the design of circuits that best suppress variability: (i) high protein cooperativity and low miRNA cooperativity, (ii) imperfect complementarity between miRNA and mRNA was preferred to perfect complementarity, and (iii) correlated expression of mRNA and miRNA – for example, on the same transcript – was best for suppression of protein variability. Results further showed that correlations in kinetic parameters between cells affected the ability to suppress variability, and that variability in transient states did not necessarily follow the same principles as variability in the steady state. Our model and findings provide a general framework to guide design principles in synthetic biology. PMID:23555205
Spinning Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Markley Variables: Filter Implementation And Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, Joseph E.

2005-01-01

Attitude estimation is often more difficult for spinning spacecraft than for three-axis stabilized platforms due to the need to follow rapidly-varying state vector elements and the lack of three-axis rate measurements from gyros. The estimation problem simplifies when torques are negligible and nutation has damped out, but the general case requires a sequential filter with dynamics propagation. This paper describes the implementation and test results for an extended Kalman filter for spinning spacecraft attitude and rate estimation based on a novel set of variables suggested in a paper by Markley [AAS93-3301 (referred to hereafter as Markley variables). Markley has demonstrated that the new set of variables provides a superior parameterization for numerical integration of the attitude dynamics for spinning or momentum-biased spacecraft. The advantage is that the Markley variables have fewer rapidly-varying elements than other representations such as the attitude quaternion and rate vector. A filter based on these variables was expected to show improved performance due to the more accurate numerical state propagation. However, for a variety of test cases, it has been found that the new filter, as currently implemented, does not perform significantly better than a quaternion-based filter that was developed and tested in parallel. This paper reviews the mathematical background for a filter based on Markley variables. It also describes some features of the implementation and presents test results. The test cases are based on a mission using magnetometer and Sun sensor data and gyro measurements on two axes normal to the spin axis. The orbit and attitude scenarios and spacecraft parameters are modeled after one of the THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) probes. Several tests are presented that demonstrate the filter accuracy and convergence properties. The tests include torque-free motion with various nutation angles, large constant-torque attitude slews, sensor misalignments, large initial attitude and rate errors, and cases with low data frequency. It is found that the convergence is rapid, the radius of convergence is large, and the results are reasonably accurate even in the presence of unmodeled perturbations.
Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.
Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.
Comparison of temporospatial and kinetic variables of walking in small and large dogs on a pressure-sensing walkway.

PubMed

Kim, Jongmin; Kazmierczak, Kris A; Breur, Gert J

2011-09-01

To compare temporospatial variables (TSVs) and kinetic variables (KVs) for fore-limbs and hind limbs of small and large dogs of various breeds during walking and to determine associations among body weight (BW), TSVs, and KVs in these groups. 12 adult dogs with no evidence of lameness. Dogs (grouped according to BW as small [< 10 kg; n = 6] or large [> 25 kg; 6]) were walked in a straight line at their preferred velocity on a wooden platform with an embedded pressure-sensing walkway. Five valid trials were analyzed for each dog; mean TSVs and KVs were determined for each group. The TSVs and KVs for forelimbs and hind limbs were compared between groups, and correlations among BW, TSVs, and KVs were determined. Small dogs had significantly smaller TSVs and KVs than did large dogs. Temporal variables of small dogs and absolute vertical force variables of small and large dogs increased as BW increased. However, normalized peak vertical force and weight distribution values among the 4 limbs were similar between groups. Substantial similarities and differences were detected in gait characteristics between small and large dogs. Results indicated TSVs and KVs can be used for comparison of the walking gait between dogs or for comparison of variables between limbs in an individual dog. Use of the pressure-sensing walkway is a simple method for acquisition of TSVs and KVs for large and small dogs.
Rainfall variability over the tropical Pacific from July 1987 through December 1991 as inferred via monthly estimates from SSM/I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Wesley; Avery, Susan K.

1994-01-01

Estimates of monthly rainfall have been computed over the tropical Pacific using passive microwave satellite observations from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) for the preiod from July 1987 through December 1991. The monthly estimates were calibrated using measurements from a network of Pacific atoll rain gauges and compared to other satellite-based rainfall estimation techniques. Based on these monthly estimates, an analysis of the variability of large-scale features over intraseasonal to interannual timescales has been performed. While the major precipitation features as well as the seasonal variability distributions show good agreement with expected values, the presence of a moderately intense El Nino during 1986-87 and an intense La Nina during 1988-89 highlights this time period.
Nonequilibrium thermodynamic potentials for continuous-time Markov chains.

PubMed

Verley, Gatien

2016-01-01

We connect the rare fluctuations of an equilibrium (EQ) process and the typical fluctuations of a nonequilibrium (NE) stationary process. In the framework of large deviation theory, this observation allows us to introduce NE thermodynamic potentials. For continuous-time Markov chains, we identify the relevant pairs of conjugated variables and propose two NE ensembles: one with fixed dynamics and fluctuating time-averaged variables, and another with fixed time-averaged variables, but a fluctuating dynamics. Accordingly, we show that NE processes are equivalent to conditioned EQ processes ensuring that NE potentials are Legendre dual. We find a variational principle satisfied by the NE potentials that reach their maximum in the NE stationary state and whose first derivatives produce the NE equations of state and second derivatives produce the NE Maxwell relations generalizing the Onsager reciprocity relations.

The Fermi All-Sky Variability Analysis: A List of Flaring Gamma-Ray Sources and the Search for Transients in our Galaxy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; Allafort, A.; Antolini, E.; Baldini, L.; Ballet, J.; Barbiellini, G; Bastieri, D.; Bechtol, K.;

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present the Fermi All-sky Variability Analysis (FAVA), a tool to systematically study the variability of the gamma-ray sky measured by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.For each direction on the sky, FAVA compares the number of gamma-rays observed in a given time window to the number of gamma-rays expected for the average emission detected from that direction. This method is used in weekly time intervals to derive a list of 215 flaring gamma-ray sources. We proceed to discuss the 27 sources found at Galactic latitudes smaller than 10 and show that, despite their low latitudes, most of them are likely of extragalactic origin.

An integrated workflow to assess technical and biological variability of cell population frequencies in human peripheral blood by flow cytometry

PubMed Central

Burel, Julie G.; Qian, Yu; Arlehamn, Cecilia Lindestam; Weiskopf, Daniela; Zapardiel-Gonzalo, Jose; Taplitz, Randy; Gilman, Robert H.; Saito, Mayuko; de Silva, Aruna D.; Vijayanand, Pandurangan; Scheuermann, Richard H.; Sette, Alessandro; Peters, Bjoern

2016-01-01

In the context of large-scale human system immunology studies, controlling for technical and biological variability is crucial to ensure that experimental data support research conclusions. Here, we report on a universal workflow to evaluate both technical and biological variation in multiparameter flow cytometry, applied to the development of a 10-color panel to identify all major cell populations and T cell subsets in cryopreserved PBMC. Replicate runs from a control donation and comparison of different gating strategies assessed technical variability associated with each cell population and permitted the calculation of a quality control score. Applying our panel to a large collection of PBMC samples, we found that most cell populations showed low intra-individual variability over time. In contrast, certain subpopulations such as CD56 T cells and Temra CD4 T cells were associated with high inter-individual variability. Age but not gender had a significant effect on the frequency of several populations, with a drastic decrease in naïve T cells observed in older donors. Ethnicity also influenced a significant proportion of immune cell population frequencies, emphasizing the need to account for these co-variates in immune profiling studies. Finally, we exemplify the usefulness of our workflow by identifying a novel cell-subset signature of latent tuberculosis infection. Thus, our study provides a universal workflow to establish and evaluate any flow cytometry panel in systems immunology studies. PMID:28069807
An Integrated Workflow To Assess Technical and Biological Variability of Cell Population Frequencies in Human Peripheral Blood by Flow Cytometry.

PubMed

Burel, Julie G; Qian, Yu; Lindestam Arlehamn, Cecilia; Weiskopf, Daniela; Zapardiel-Gonzalo, Jose; Taplitz, Randy; Gilman, Robert H; Saito, Mayuko; de Silva, Aruna D; Vijayanand, Pandurangan; Scheuermann, Richard H; Sette, Alessandro; Peters, Bjoern

2017-02-15

In the context of large-scale human system immunology studies, controlling for technical and biological variability is crucial to ensure that experimental data support research conclusions. In this study, we report on a universal workflow to evaluate both technical and biological variation in multiparameter flow cytometry, applied to the development of a 10-color panel to identify all major cell populations and T cell subsets in cryopreserved PBMC. Replicate runs from a control donation and comparison of different gating strategies assessed the technical variability associated with each cell population and permitted the calculation of a quality control score. Applying our panel to a large collection of PBMC samples, we found that most cell populations showed low intraindividual variability over time. In contrast, certain subpopulations such as CD56 T cells and Temra CD4 T cells were associated with high interindividual variability. Age but not gender had a significant effect on the frequency of several populations, with a drastic decrease in naive T cells observed in older donors. Ethnicity also influenced a significant proportion of immune cell population frequencies, emphasizing the need to account for these covariates in immune profiling studies. We also exemplify the usefulness of our workflow by identifying a novel cell-subset signature of latent tuberculosis infection. Thus, our study provides a universal workflow to establish and evaluate any flow cytometry panel in systems immunology studies. Copyright © 2017 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.
Variability of word discrimination scores in clinical practice and consequences on their sensitivity to hearing loss.

PubMed

Moulin, Annie; Bernard, André; Tordella, Laurent; Vergne, Judith; Gisbert, Annie; Martin, Christian; Richard, Céline

2017-05-01

Speech perception scores are widely used to assess patient's functional hearing, yet most linguistic material used in these audiometric tests dates to before the availability of large computerized linguistic databases. In an ENT clinic population of 120 patients with median hearing loss of 43-dB HL, we quantified the variability and the sensitivity of speech perception scores to hearing loss, measured using disyllabic word lists, as a function of both the number of ten-word lists and type of scoring used (word, syllables or phonemes). The mean word recognition scores varied significantly across lists from 54 to 68%. The median of the variability of the word recognition score ranged from 30% for one ten-word list down to 20% for three ten-word lists. Syllabic and phonemic scores showed much less variability with standard deviations decreasing by 1.15 with the use of syllabic scores and by 1.45 with phonemic scores. The sensitivity of each list to hearing loss and distortions varied significantly. There was an increase in the minimum effect size that could be seen for syllabic scores compared to word scores, with no significant further improvement with phonemic scores. The use of at least two ten-word lists, quoted in syllables rather than in whole words, contributed to a large decrease in variability and an increase in sensitivity to hearing loss. However, those results emphasize the need of using updated linguistic material for clinical speech score assessments.
Variability Properties of Four Million Sources in the TESS Input Catalog Observed with the Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oelkers, Ryan J.; Rodriguez, Joseph E.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pepper, Joshua; Somers, Garrett; Kafka, Stella; Stevens, Daniel J.; Beatty, Thomas G.; Siverd, Robert J.; Lund, Michael B.; Kuhn, Rudolf B.; James, David; Gaudi, B. Scott

2018-01-01

The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) has been surveying more than 70% of the celestial sphere for nearly a decade. While the primary science goal of the survey is the discovery of transiting, large-radii planets around bright host stars, the survey has collected more than 106 images, with a typical cadence between 10–30 minutes, for more than four million sources with apparent visual magnitudes in the approximate range 7< V< 13. Here, we provide a catalog of 52,741 objects showing significant large-amplitude fluctuations likely caused by stellar variability, as well as 62,229 objects identified with likely stellar rotation periods. The detected variability ranges in rms-amplitude from ∼3 mmag to ∼2.3 mag, and the detected periods range from ∼0.1 to ≳2000 days. We provide variability upper limits for all other ∼4,000,000 sources. These upper limits are principally a function of stellar brightness, but we achieve typical 1σ sensitivity on 30 min timescales down to ∼5 mmag at V∼ 8, and down to ∼43 mmag at V∼ 13. We have matched our catalog to the TESS Input catalog and the AAVSO Variable Star Index to precipitate the follow-up and classification of each source. The catalog is maintained as a living database on the Filtergraph visualization portal at the URL https://filtergraph.com/kelt_vars.
High Genetic Diversity Revealed by Variable-Number Tandem Repeat Genotyping and Analysis of hsp65 Gene Polymorphism in a Large Collection of “Mycobacterium canettii” Strains Indicates that the M. tuberculosis Complex Is a Recently Emerged Clone of “M. canettii”

PubMed Central

Fabre, Michel; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Le Flèche, Philippe; Simon, Fabrice; Hervé, Vincent; Vergnaud, Gilles; Pourcel, Christine

2004-01-01

We have analyzed, using complementary molecular methods, the diversity of 43 strains of “Mycobacterium canettii” originating from the Republic of Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa, from 1998 to 2003. Genotyping by multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis shows that all the strains belong to a single but very distant group when compared to strains of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Thirty-one strains cluster into one large group with little variability and five strains form another group, whereas the other seven are more diverged. In total, 14 genotypes are observed. The DR locus analysis reveals additional variability, some strains being devoid of a direct repeat locus and others having unique spacers. The hsp65 gene polymorphism was investigated by restriction enzyme analysis and sequencing of PCR amplicons. Four new single nucleotide polymorphisms were discovered. One strain was characterized by three nucleotide changes in 441 bp, creating new restriction enzyme polymorphisms. As no sequence variability was found for hsp65 in the whole MTBC, and as a single point mutation separates M. tuberculosis from the closest “M. canettii” strains, this diversity within “M. canettii” subspecies strongly suggests that it is the most probable source species of the MTBC rather than just another branch of the MTBC. PMID:15243089
High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.
Path-integral methods for analyzing the effects of fluctuations in stochastic hybrid neural networks.

PubMed

Bressloff, Paul C

2015-01-01

We consider applications of path-integral methods to the analysis of a stochastic hybrid model representing a network of synaptically coupled spiking neuronal populations. The state of each local population is described in terms of two stochastic variables, a continuous synaptic variable and a discrete activity variable. The synaptic variables evolve according to piecewise-deterministic dynamics describing, at the population level, synapses driven by spiking activity. The dynamical equations for the synaptic currents are only valid between jumps in spiking activity, and the latter are described by a jump Markov process whose transition rates depend on the synaptic variables. We assume a separation of time scales between fast spiking dynamics with time constant [Formula: see text] and slower synaptic dynamics with time constant τ. This naturally introduces a small positive parameter [Formula: see text], which can be used to develop various asymptotic expansions of the corresponding path-integral representation of the stochastic dynamics. First, we derive a variational principle for maximum-likelihood paths of escape from a metastable state (large deviations in the small noise limit [Formula: see text]). We then show how the path integral provides an efficient method for obtaining a diffusion approximation of the hybrid system for small ϵ. The resulting Langevin equation can be used to analyze the effects of fluctuations within the basin of attraction of a metastable state, that is, ignoring the effects of large deviations. We illustrate this by using the Langevin approximation to analyze the effects of intrinsic noise on pattern formation in a spatially structured hybrid network. In particular, we show how noise enlarges the parameter regime over which patterns occur, in an analogous fashion to PDEs. Finally, we carry out a [Formula: see text]-loop expansion of the path integral, and use this to derive corrections to voltage-based mean-field equations, analogous to the modified activity-based equations generated from a neural master equation.
Long-term variability and environmental preferences of calycophoran siphonophores in the Bay of Villefranche (north-western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licandro, P.; Souissi, S.; Ibanez, F.; Carré, C.

2012-05-01

Long-term variability of the main calycophoran siphonophores was investigated between 1974 and 1999 in a coastal station in the north-western Mediterranean. The data were collected at weekly frequency using a macroplankton net (680 μm mesh size) adapted to quantitatively sample delicate gelatinous plankton. A 3-year collection (1967-1969) of siphonophores from offshore waters using the same methodology showed that the patterns of variability observed inshore were representative of siphonophores’ changes at a regional scale. The aims of the study were: (i) to investigate the patterns of variability that characterised the dominant calycophoran species and assemblages; (ii) to identify the environmental optima that were associated with a significant increase in the dominant siphonophore species and (iii) to verify the influence of hydroclimatic variability on long-term changes of siphonophores. Our results showed that during nearly 3 decades the standing stock of calycophoran siphonophores did not show any significant change, with the annual maximum usually recorded in spring as a result of high densities of the dominant species Lensia subtilis, Muggiaea kochi and Muggiaea atlantica. Nevertheless, major changes in community composition occurred within the calycophoran population. Since the middle 1980s, M. kochi, once the most dominant species, started to decrease allowing other species, the congeneric M. atlantica and Chelophyes appendiculata, to increasingly dominate in spring and summer-autumn, respectively. The comparison of environmental and biotic long-term trends suggests that the decrease of M. kochi was triggered by hydrological changes that occurred in the north-western Mediterranean under the forcing of large-scale climate oscillations. Salinity, water stratification and water temperature were the main hydroclimatic factors associated with a significant increase of siphonophores, different species showing different environmental preferences.
Large vasodilatations in skeletal muscle of resting conscious dogs and their contribution to blood pressure variability

PubMed Central

Just, Armin; Schneider, Christian; Ehmke, Heimo; Kirchheim, Hartmut R

2000-01-01

Large (up to +400 %) transient (∼20 s) increases of blood flow were observed in the external iliac arteries of resting conscious dogs (n = 10) in the absence of major alerting or muscular activity. At the same time arterial pressure (AP) fellslightly while heart rate (HR) rose. The vasodilatations were resistant to atropine, ganglionic, β-adrenergic and NO-synthase inhibition, but were suppressed by spinal or general anaesthesia. Vasodilatations of similar appearance were elicited by an alerting sound; these were abolished by atropine. The spontaneous vasodilatations occurred simultaneously and their magnitudes were well correlated between both legs, but were not correlated to the amount of concomitant activation of the surface electromyogram. The duration of this activation almost never outlasted 10 s. The reactive hyperaemia observed after a total occlusion of the artery even for 16 s was not large enough to explain the size of the spontaneous vasodilatations. Occlusion during peak flow of the vasodilatations did not affect the size of the reactive hyperaemia. Spectral analysis made separately for data segments with and without vasodilatation revealed that the vasodilatations substantially enhanced the variability of AP and HR at frequencies below ∼0.1 Hz. In conclusion, large coordinated skeletal muscle vasodilatations were identified in resting conscious dogs, which are initiated neurally, but not by sympathetic-cholinergic or nitroxidergic fibres and which do not show any clear correlation to muscular contraction. The vasodilatations substantially affect the regulation of skeletal muscle blood flow and explain a significant portion of AP and HR variability. PMID:10990545
ENSO-Driven Variability of Denitrification and Suboxia in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Simon; Gruber, Nicolas; Long, Matthew C.; Vogt, Meike

2017-10-01

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification (WCD). In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model over the period 1948 to 2009 to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large variations in the rates of WCD in this region. During mature La Niña (El Niño) conditions, peak denitrification rates are up to 70% higher (lower) than the mean rates. This large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export in such a way that the response of WCD is strongly amplified. During average La Niña (El Niño) conditions, the overall changes in ODZ structure and primarily the shoaling (deepening) of the upper boundary of both ODZs by 40 to 100 m explains 50% of the changes in WCD in the North Pacific and 94% in the South Pacific. Such a large variability of WCD in the ETP has strong implications for the assessments of trends, the balance of the marine N cycle and the emission of the greenhouse gas N2O.
Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.
Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).
The MMPI-2 Symptom Validity Scale (FBS) not influenced by medical impairment: a large sleep center investigation.

PubMed

Greiffenstein, Manfred F

2010-06-01

The Symptom Validity Scale (Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-FBS [MMPI-2-FBS]) is a standard MMPI-2 validity scale measuring overstatement of somatic distress and subjective disability. Some critics assert the MMPI-2-FBS misclassifies too many medically impaired persons as malingering symptoms. This study tests the assertion of malingering misclassification with a large sample of 345 medical inpatients undergoing sleep studies that standardly included MMPI-2 testing. The variables included standard MMPI-2 validity scales (Lie Scale [L], Infrequency Scale [F], K-Correction [K]; FBS), objective medical data (e.g., body mass index, pulse oximetry), and polysomnographic scores (e.g., apnea/hypopnea index). The results showed the FBS had no substantial or unique association with medical/sleep variables, produced false positive rates <20% (median = 9, range = 4-11), and male inpatients showed marginally higher failure rates than females. The MMPI-2-FBS appears to have acceptable specificity, because it did not misclassify as biased responders those medical patients with sleep problems, male or female, with primary gain only (reducing sickness). Medical impairment does not appear to be a major influence on deviant MMPI-2-FBS scores.
Multi-scale impacts of the Pacific SST and PDO on the summer precipitation of North-Central China from 1870 to 2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Shuoben; Qu, Ying; Bi, Shengjie; Wu, Weiting; Jiang, Tingting

2018-05-01

Climate variability has become a hot topic worldwide in recent years. Although large numbers of climate data series have been reconstructed based on hundreds to thousands, or even tens of thousands, of years, our understanding of this problem is still controversial. We use the precipitation index (PI) series to study the periodicity of the precipitation in northern China from 1870 to 2002 and explore the climate variability on a large timescale. The analysis shows that the precipitation has periods of 2.27-3.03, 7.14, 10.00, 11.11, 12.50, 14.29, 16.67, 20.00, and 25.00 a. Based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and Pacific interdecadal oscillation (PDO) are decomposed into different frequencies. The results show that the SST and PDO have interannual to interdecadal periodicity. To determine the impact of the Pacific SST and PDO on the PI, we make use of the cross wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherency spectrum to analyze their period relation and reveal their periodic change characteristics; it is found that different bands of the Pacific SST, PDO, and PI have high power.
Global Change and Human Consumption of Freshwater Driven by Flow Regulation and Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaramillo, F.; Destouni, G.

2015-12-01

Recent studies show major uncertainties about the magnitude and key drivers of global freshwater change, historically and projected for the future. The tackling of these uncertainties should be a societal priority to understand: 1) the role of human change drivers for freshwater availability changes, 2) the global water footprint of humanity and 3) the relation of human freshwater consumption to a proposed planetary boundary. This study analyses worldwide hydroclimatic changes, as observed during 1900-2009 in 99 large hydrological basins across all continents. We test whether global freshwater change may be driven by major developments of flow regulation and irrigation (FRI) occurring over this period. Independent categorization of the variability of FRI-impact strength among the studied basins is used to identify statistical basin differences in occurrence and strength of characteristic hydroclimatic signals of FRI. Our results show dominant signals of increasing relative evapotranspiration in basins affected by flow regulation and/or irrigation, in conjunction with decreasing relative intra-annual variability of runoff in basins affected by flow regulation. The FRI-related increase in relative evapotranspiration implies an increase of 4,688 km3/yr in global annual average water flow from land to the atmosphere. This observation-based estimate extends considerably the upper quantification limits of both FRI-driven and total global human consumption of freshwater, as well as the global water footprint of humanity. Our worldwide analysis shows clear FRI-related change signals emerging directly from observations, in spite of large change variability among basins and many other coexisting change drivers in both the atmosphere and the landscape. These results highlight the importance of considering local water use as a key change driver in Earth system studies and modelling, of relevance for global change and human consumption of freshwater.
The variability of methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, A. L.; Chatterjee, A.; Prinn, R. G.; Harth, C. M.; Salameh, P. K.; Manning, A. J.; Hall, B. D.; Mühle, J.; Meredith, L. K.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.

2013-06-01

High-frequency atmospheric measurements of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) from Darjeeling, India are presented from December 2011 (CH4)/March 2012 (N2O and SF6) through February 2013. These measurements were made on a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector and electron capture detector and were calibrated on the Tohoku University, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)-98 and SIO-2005 scales for CH4, N2O and SF6, respectively. The observations show large variability and frequent pollution events in CH4 and N2O mole fractions, suggesting significant sources in the regions sampled by Darjeeling throughout the year. In contrast, SF6 mole fractions show little variability and only occasional pollution episodes, likely due to weak sources in the region. Simulations using the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) particle dispersion model suggest that many of the enhancements in the three gases result from the transport of pollutants from the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains of India to Darjeeling. The meteorology of the region varies considerably throughout the year from Himalayan flows in the winter to the strong South Asian summer monsoon. The model is consistent in simulating a diurnal cycle in CH4 and N2O mole fractions that is present during the winter but absent in the summer and suggests that the signals measured at Darjeeling are dominated by large scale (~100 km) flows rather than local (<10 km) flows.
The variability of methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, A. L.; Chatterjee, A.; Prinn, R. G.; Harth, C. M.; Salameh, P. K.; Manning, A. J.; Hall, B. D.; Mühle, J.; Meredith, L. K.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.

2013-11-01

High-frequency atmospheric measurements of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) from Darjeeling, India are presented from December 2011 (CH4)/March 2012 (N2O and SF6) through February 2013. These measurements were made on a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector and electron capture detector, and were calibrated on the Tohoku University, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)-98 and SIO-2005 scales for CH4, N2O and SF6, respectively. The observations show large variability and frequent pollution events in CH4 and N2O mole fractions, suggesting significant sources in the regions sampled by Darjeeling throughout the year. By contrast, SF6 mole fractions show little variability and only occasional pollution episodes, likely due to weak sources in the region. Simulations using the Numerical Atmospheric dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) particle dispersion model suggest that many of the enhancements in the three gases result from the transport of pollutants from the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains of India to Darjeeling. The meteorology of the region varies considerably throughout the year from Himalayan flows in the winter to the strong south Asian summer monsoon. The model is consistent in simulating a diurnal cycle in CH4 and N2O mole fractions that is present during the winter but absent in the summer and suggests that the signals measured at Darjeeling are dominated by large-scale (~100 km) flows rather than local (<10 km) flows.
Large-scale Periodic Variability of the Wind of the Wolf-Rayet Star WR 1 (HD 4004)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chené, A.-N.; St-Louis, N.

2010-06-01

We present the results of an intensive photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the WN4 Wolf-Rayet (WR) star WR 1 = HD 4004. Our broadband V photometry covering a timespan of 91 days shows variability with a period of P = 16.9+0.6 -0.3 days. The same period is also found in our spectral data. The light curve is non-sinusoidal with hints of a gradual change in its shape as a function of time. The photometric variations nevertheless remain coherent over several cycles and we estimate that the coherence timescale of the light curve is of the order of 60 days. The spectroscopy shows large-scale line-profile variability which can be interpreted as excess emission peaks moving from one side of the profile to the other on a timescale of several days. Although we cannot unequivocally exclude the unlikely possibility that WR 1 is a binary, we propose that the nature of the variability we have found strongly suggests that it is due to the presence in the wind of the WR star of large-scale structures, most likely corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which are predicted to arise in inherently unstable radiatively driven winds when they are perturbed at their base. We also suggest that variability observed in WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137 is of the same nature. Finally, assuming that the period of CIRs is related to the rotational period, we estimate the rotation rate of the four stars for which sufficient monitoring has been carried out, i.e., v rot = 6.5, 40, 70, and 275 km s-1 for WR 1, WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137, respectively. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of Hawaii. Also based on observations obtained at the Observatoire du Mont Mégantic with is operated by the Centre de Recherche en Astrophysique du Québec and the Observatoire de Haute-Provence which is operated by the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France.
A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

Adult Lifespan Cognitive Variability in the Cross-Sectional Cam-CAN Cohort

PubMed Central

Green, Emma; Shafto, Meredith A.; Matthews, Fiona E.; White, Simon R.

2015-01-01

This study examines variability across the age span in cognitive performance in a cross-sectional, population-based, adult lifespan cohort from the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN) study (n = 2680). A key question we highlight is whether using measures that are designed to detect age-related cognitive pathology may not be sensitive to, or reflective of, individual variability among younger adults. We present three issues that contribute to the debate for and against age-related increases in variability. Firstly, the need to formally define measures of central tendency and measures of variability. Secondly, in addition to the commonly addressed location-confounding (adjusting for covariates) there may exist changes in measures of variability due to confounder sub-groups. Finally, that increases in spread may be a result of floor or ceiling effects; where the measure is not sensitive enough at all ages. From the Cam-CAN study, a large population-based dataset, we demonstrate the existence of variability-confounding for the immediate episodic memory task; and show that increasing variance with age in our general cognitive measures is driven by a ceiling effect in younger age groups. PMID:26690191
Adult Lifespan Cognitive Variability in the Cross-Sectional Cam-CAN Cohort.

PubMed

Green, Emma; Shafto, Meredith A; Matthews, Fiona E; White, Simon R

2015-12-07

This study examines variability across the age span in cognitive performance in a cross-sectional, population-based, adult lifespan cohort from the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (Cam-CAN) study (n = 2680). A key question we highlight is whether using measures that are designed to detect age-related cognitive pathology may not be sensitive to, or reflective of, individual variability among younger adults. We present three issues that contribute to the debate for and against age-related increases in variability. Firstly, the need to formally define measures of central tendency and measures of variability. Secondly, in addition to the commonly addressed location-confounding (adjusting for covariates) there may exist changes in measures of variability due to confounder sub-groups. Finally, that increases in spread may be a result of floor or ceiling effects; where the measure is not sensitive enough at all ages. From the Cam-CAN study, a large population-based dataset, we demonstrate the existence of variability-confounding for the immediate episodic memory task; and show that increasing variance with age in our general cognitive measures is driven by a ceiling effect in younger age groups.
Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

2016-05-01

Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.
Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

PubMed

Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

2016-05-01

Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.
Characteristic Variability Timescales in the Gamma-ray Power Spectra of Blazars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, James Lee; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Sobolewska, Malgorzata; Grindlay, Jonathan E.

2018-01-01

We study the gamma-ray variability of 13 bright blazars observed with the Fermi Large Area Telescope in the 0.2-300 MeV band over 7.8 years.We find that continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models provide adequate fits to the blazar light curves, and using the models we constrain the power spectral density (PSD) of each source.We also perform simulations to test the ability of CARMA modeling to recover the PSDs of artificial light curves with our data quality.Seven sources show evidence for a low-frequency break at an average timescale of ~1 year, with five of these sources showing evidence for an additional high-frequency break at an average timescale of ~7 days.We compare our results to previous studies, and discuss the possible physical interpretations of our results.
Discovery of a new Galactic bona fide luminous blue variable with Spitzer★

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gvaramadze, V. V.; Kniazev, A. Y.; Berdnikov, L. N.; Langer, N.; Grebel, E. K.; Bestenlehner, J. M.

2014-11-01

We report the discovery of a circular mid-infrared shell around the emission-line star Wray 16-137 using archival data of the Spitzer Space Telescope. Follow-up optical spectroscopy of Wray 16-137 with the Southern African Large Telescope revealed a rich emission spectrum typical of the classical luminous blue variables (LBVs) like P Cygni. Subsequent spectroscopic and photometric observations showed drastic changes in the spectrum and brightness during the last three years, meaning that Wray 16-137 currently undergoes an S Dor-like outburst. Namely, we found that the star has brightened by ≈1 mag in the V and Ic bands, while its spectrum became dominated by Fe II lines. Taken together, our observations unambiguously show that Wray 16-137 is a new member of the family of Galactic bona fide LBVs.
Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2004-01-01

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.
The topographic distribution of annual incoming solar radiation in the Rio Grande River basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubayah, R.; Van Katwijk, V.

1992-01-01

We model the annual incoming solar radiation topoclimatology for the Rio Grande River basin in Colorado, U.S.A. Hourly pyranometer measurements are combined with satellite reflectance data and 30-m digital elevation models within a topographic solar radiation algorithm. Our results show that there is large spatial variability within the basin, even at an annual integration length, but the annual, basin-wide mean is close to that measured by the pyranometers. The variance within 16 sq km and 100 sq km regions is a linear function of the average slope in the region, suggesting a possible parameterization for sub-grid-cell variability.
Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

2016-01-01

We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.
US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Ki; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Enfield, David B.; Weaver, Scott J.; Wang, Chunzai; Atlas, Robert

2016-04-01

Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. We show that the four dominant springtime El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Niño and resurgent versus transitioning La Niña) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.
Long-term variability of wind patterns at hub-height over Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J.; Jeon, W.; Choi, Y.; Souri, A.

2017-12-01

Wind energy is getting more attention because of its environmentally friendly attributes. Texas is a state with significant capacity and number of wind turbines. Wind power generation is significantly affected by wind patterns, and it is important to understand this seasonal and decadal variability for long-term power generation from wind turbines. This study focused on the trends of changes in wind pattern and its strength at two hub-heights (80 m and 110 m) over 30-years (1986 to 2015). We only analyzed summer data(June to September) because of concentrated electricity usage in Texas. We extracted hub-height wind data (U and V components) from the three-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction-North American Regional Reanalysis (NCEP-NARR) and classified wind patterns properly by using nonhierarchical K-means method. Hub-height wind patterns in summer seasons of 1986 to 2015 were classified in six classes at day and seven classes at night. Mean wind speed was 4.6 ms-1 at day and 5.4 ms-1 at night, but showed large variability in time and space. We combined each cluster's frequencies and wind speed tendencies with large scale atmospheric circulation features and quantified the amount of wind power generation.
Dying like rabbits: general determinants of spatio-temporal variability in survival.

PubMed

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy; Palomares, Francisco

2012-01-01

1. Identifying general patterns of how and why survival rates vary across space and time is necessary to truly understand population dynamics of a species. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity and interactions of processes involved, and the interpopulation differences in main survival determinants. 2. Here, using European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) as a model and information from local studies, we investigated whether we could make inferences about trends and drivers of survival of a species that are generalizable to large spatio-temporal scales. To do this, we first focused on overall survival and then examined cause-specific mortalities, mainly predation and diseases, which may lead to those patterns. 3. Our results show that within the large-scale variability in rabbit survival, there exist general patterns that are explained by the integration of factors previously known to be important at the local level (i.e. age, climate, diseases, predation or density dependence). We found that both inter- and intrastudy survival rates increased in magnitude and decreased in variability as rabbits grow old, although this tendency was less pronounced in populations with epidemic diseases. Some causes leading to these higher mortalities in young rabbits could be the stronger effect of rainfall at those ages, as well as, other death sources like malnutrition or infanticide. 4. Predation is also greater for newborns and juveniles, especially in population without diseases. Apart from the effect of diseases, predation patterns also depended on factors, such as, density, season, and type and density of predators. Finally, we observed that infectious diseases also showed general relationships with climate, breeding (i.e. new susceptible rabbits) and age, although the association type varied between myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease. 5. In conclusion, large-scale patterns of spatio-temporal variability in rabbit survival emerge from the combination of different factors that interrelate both directly and through density dependence. This highlights the importance of performing more comprehensive studies to reveal combined effects and complex relationships that help us to better understand the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.
Multiple and variable speed electrical generator systems for large wind turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, T. S.; Hughes, P. S.; Kirschbaum, H. S.; Mutone, G. A.

1982-01-01

A cost effective method to achieve increased wind turbine generator energy conversion and other operational benefits through variable speed operation is presented. Earlier studies of multiple and variable speed generators in wind turbines were extended for evaluation in the context of a specific large sized conceptual design. System design and simulation have defined the costs and performance benefits which can be expected from both two speed and variable speed configurations.
The 30-60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea dur1ing May-September

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Jiangyu; Wang, Ming

2018-05-01

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South China Sea (SCS) on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer (May-September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive (negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies (southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux (MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the 30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.
Hydrographic Variability off the Coast of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belabbassi, L.; Dimarco, S. F.; Jochens, A. E.; Al Gheilani, H.; Wang, Z.

2010-12-01

Data from hydrographic transects made in 2001 and 2002 and between 2007 and 2009 were obtained from the Oman Ministry of Fisheries Wealth. Property-depth plots of temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were produced for all transects and in all months for which data were available. These were analyzed for temporal and spatial variability. For all transects, there exist large variability on various timescales, with strong spatial variability. Two common features that are seen in the hydrographic data sets are the Persian Gulf Water (PGW) and a layer of continuous low oxygen concentrations in the lower part of the water column. Plots of salinity produced for transects located in the northern part of the Gulf of Oman show a one-unit increase in salinity of the water at the bottom of deepest station during the months of August and September as compared to the other months. Similarly, cross-shelf contour plots of temperature shows an increase in water temperature near the bottom station during the months of August and September. These indicate the presence of the PGW outflow in the northern part of the Gulf of Oman. For dissolved oxygen distributions, hydrographic transects that did not extend far offshore show monthly differences in the presence of water with low oxygen concentrations. For transects that do extend far offshore and also show a layer of low oxygen water throughout the year, there is generally a monthly difference on whether this water is found close to the surface or deeper in the water column. The variability seen in the data could only be explained by comparing these data to data collected from the real time cable ocean observing system installed by Lighthouse R &D Enterprise in the Oman Sea and the Arabian Sea in 2005. The analysis of these data reveal that the variability observed is related to processes such as ocean conditions, monsoonal cycle, and extreme weather events.
Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height in the astern, equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xuhua; McCreary, Julian P.; Qiu, Bo; Qi, Yiquan; Du, Yan

2017-05-01

Intraseasonal-to-semiannual variability of sea-surface height (SSH) in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated using altimetric data, and solutions to 1½ layer (first baroclinic mode) and linear, continuously stratified (LCS; multibaroclinic-mode) models. The amplitude and dominant periods of SSH variability differ regionally. Large-amplitude variability is found along the west coast of Sumatra, in a zonal band across the BoB centered along 5°N, east of Sri Lanka, and in the northwestern BoB, respectively. Along the Sumatran west coast, SSH variability peaks at 30-60, 90, and 180 days. Along 5°N and east of Sri Lanka, the 30-60 day variability is dominant. Sensitivity experiments using a nonlinear version of the 1½ layer model forced by realistic winds reproduce the observed patterns of intraseasonal variability in the southern BoB. At 30-60 days, the solutions show that eddies (nonlinear Rossby waves) propagating from the east, rather than local wind forcing, account for most of the variance east of Sri Lanka; furthermore, they demonstrate that the variance is significantly enhanced by the nonlinear transfer of 90-120 day energy into the intraseasonal band of 30-60 days. The LCS solutions show that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the SSH variance at 90-180 days. The second baroclinic mode dominates the SSH variance at 180 days, a consequence of basin resonance and strong wind forcing.
Weather on Other Worlds. IV. Hα Emission and Photometric Variability Are Not Correlated in L0–T8 Dwarfs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miles-Páez, Paulo A.; Metchev, Stanimir A.; Heinze, Aren

Recent photometric studies have revealed that surface spots that produce flux variations are present on virtually all L and T dwarfs. Their likely magnetic or dusty nature has been a much-debated problem, the resolution to which has been hindered by paucity of diagnostic multi-wavelength observations. To test for a correlation between magnetic activity and photometric variability, we searched for H α emission among eight L3–T2 ultra-cool dwarfs with extensive previous photometric monitoring, some of which are known to be variable at 3.6 μ m or 4.5 μ m. We detected H α only in the non-variable T2 dwarf 2MASS J12545393−0122474.more » The remaining seven objects do not show H α emission, even though six of them are known to vary photometrically. Combining our results with those for 86 other L and T dwarfs from the literature show that the detection rate of H α emission is very high (94%) for spectral types between L0 and L3.5 and much smaller (20%) for spectral types ≥L4, while the detection rate of photometric variability is approximately constant (30%–55%) from L0 to T8 dwarfs. We conclude that chromospheric activity, as evidenced by H α emission, and large-amplitude photometric variability are not correlated. Consequently, dust clouds are the dominant driver of the observed variability of ultra-cool dwarfs at spectral types, at least as early as L0.« less
Interannual to Decadal SST Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Newman, M.; Han, W.

2017-12-01

The Indian Ocean has received increasing attention in recent years for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, due mainly to the close interdependence of the climate variation within the Tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the internal sea surface temperature (SST) variability within the Indian Ocean has not been studied extensively on longer time scales. In this presentation we will show analysis of the interannual to decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) results. We also compare the decoupled Indian Ocean SST variability from the Pacific against fully coupled one based on LIM integrations, to test the factors influence the features of the leading SST modes in the Indian Ocean. The result shows the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode, which is strongly related to global averaged SST variability, passively responses to the Pacific variation. Without tropical Indo-Pacific coupling interaction, the intensity of IOB significantly decreases by 80%. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode demonstrates its independence from the Pacific SST variability since the IOD does not change its long-term characteristics at all without inter-basin interactions. The overall SSTA variance decreases significantly in the Tropical Indian Ocean in the coupling restricted LIM runs, especially when the one-way impact from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean is turned off, suggesting that most of the variability in the Indian Ocean comes from the Pacific influence. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean could also transport anomalies to the Pacific, making the interaction a complete two-way process.
Climatic and geologic controls on the piezometry of the Querença-Silves karst aquifer, Algarve (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, Maria C.; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José P.

2016-06-01

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions, like Querença-Silves (Portugal), are particularly vulnerable to climate variability. For the first time in this region, the temporal structure of a groundwater-level time series (1985-2010) was explored using the continuous wavelet transform. The investigation focused on a set of four piezometers, two at each side of the S. Marcos-Quarteira fault, to demonstrate how each of the two sectors of the aquifer respond to climate-induced patterns. Singular spectral analysis applied to an extended set of piezometers enabled identification of several quasi-periodic modes of variability, with periods of 6.5, 4.3, 3.2 and 2.6 years, which can be explained by low-frequency climate patterns. The geologic forcing accounts for ~15 % of the differential variability between the eastern and western sectors of the aquifer. The western sector displays spatially homogenous piezometric variations, large memory effects and low-pass filtering characteristics, which are consistent with relatively large and uniform values of water storage capacity and transmissivity properties. In this sector, the 6.5-year mode of variability accounts for ~70 % of the total variance of the groundwater levels. The eastern sector shows larger spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is more reactive to short-term variations, and is less influenced by the low-frequency components related to climate patterns.
Observed Hydrographic Variability Connecting the Continental Shelf to the Marine-Terminating Glaciers of Uummannaq Bay, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, D.; de Steur, L.; Nash, J. D.; Shroyer, E.; Mickett, J.

2016-02-01

Large-scale changes in ocean forcing, such as increased upper ocean heat content or variations in subpolar gyre circulation, are commonly implicated as factors causing the widespread retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers. A recent surge in observational and modeling studies has shown how temperature increases and a changing subglacial discharge determine melt rates at glacier termini, driving a vigorous buoyancy-driven circulation. However, we still lack knowledge of what controls ambient water properties in the fjords themselves, i.e., how does the subpolar gyre communicate across the continental shelf towards the glacier termini. Here, we present a two-year mooring record of hydrographic variability in the Uummannaq Bay region of west Greenland. We focus on observations inside Rink Isbræ and Kangerlussuup Sermia fjords coupled with an outer mooring located in the submarine trough cutting across the shelf. We show how water properties vary seasonally inside the fjords and how they connect to variability in the trough. The two fjords exhibit large differences in temperature and salinity variability, which is possibly due to differences in the plume circulation driven by the glaciers themselves. We put these limited observations in temporal context by comparing them with observations from the nearby Davis Strait time array, and spatial context by comparing them with recent mooring records from Sermilik Fjord in southeast Greenland.

Multiwavelength monitoring of the BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304. 3: Ground-based observations in 1991 November

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courvoisier, T. J.-L.; Blecha, A.; Bouchet, P.; Bratschi, P.; Carini, M. T.; Donahue, M.; Edelson, R.; Feigelson, E. D.; Filippenko, A. V.; Glass, I. S.

1995-01-01

We present ground-based observations of the BL Lac object PKS 2155-304 during 1991 November. These data were obtained as part of a large international campaign of observations spanning the electro-magnetic spectrum from the radio waves to the X-rays. The data presented here include radio and UBVRI fluxes, as well as optical polarimetry. The U to I data show the same behavior in all bands and that only upper limits to any lag can be deduced from the cross-correlation of the light curves. The spectral slope in the U-I domain remained constant on all epochs but 2. There is no correlation between changes in the spectral slope and large variations in the total or polarized flux. The radio flux variations did not follow the same pattern of variability as the optical and infrared fluxes. The polarized flux varied by a larger factor than the total flux. The variations of the polarized flux are poorly correlated with those of the total flux in the optical (and hence UV domain; see the accompanying paper by Edelson et al.) nor with those of the soft X-rays. We conclude that the variability of PKS 2155-304 in the optical and near-infrared spectral domains are easier to understand in the context of variable geometry or bulk Lorentz factor than of variable electron acceleration and cooling rates.
Finite Adaptation and Multistep Moves in the Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm for Variable Selection in Genome-Wide Association Analysis

PubMed Central

Peltola, Tomi; Marttinen, Pekka; Vehtari, Aki

2012-01-01

High-dimensional datasets with large amounts of redundant information are nowadays available for hypothesis-free exploration of scientific questions. A particular case is genome-wide association analysis, where variations in the genome are searched for effects on disease or other traits. Bayesian variable selection has been demonstrated as a possible analysis approach, which can account for the multifactorial nature of the genetic effects in a linear regression model. Yet, the computation presents a challenge and application to large-scale data is not routine. Here, we study aspects of the computation using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for the variable selection: finite adaptation of the proposal distributions, multistep moves for changing the inclusion state of multiple variables in a single proposal and multistep move size adaptation. We also experiment with a delayed rejection step for the multistep moves. Results on simulated and real data show increase in the sampling efficiency. We also demonstrate that with application specific proposals, the approach can overcome a specific mixing problem in real data with 3822 individuals and 1,051,811 single nucleotide polymorphisms and uncover a variant pair with synergistic effect on the studied trait. Moreover, we illustrate multimodality in the real dataset related to a restrictive prior distribution on the genetic effect sizes and advocate a more flexible alternative. PMID:23166669
Predictors of large esophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis.

PubMed

Chalasani, N; Imperiale, T F; Ismail, A; Sood, G; Carey, M; Wilcox, C M; Madichetty, H; Kwo, P Y; Boyer, T D

1999-11-01

Recent guidelines recommend that all cirrhotics undergo screening upper endoscopy to identify those patients at risk for bleeding from varices. However, this practice may not be cost effective as large esophageal varices are seen only in 9-36% of these patients. The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical variables were predictive of the presence of large esophageal varices. This is a retrospective analysis of cirrhotics who had a screening upper endoscopy during an evaluation for liver transplantation at three different centers and who had not previously bled from varices. A multivariate model was derived on the combined cohort using logistic regression. Three hundred forty-six patients were eligible for the study. The prevalence of large esophageal varices was 20%. On multivariate analysis, splenomegaly detected by computed tomographic scan (odds ratio: 4.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.6-11.5) or by physical examination (odds ratio: 2.0; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-3.8), and low platelet count were independent predictors of large esophageal varices. On the basis of these variables, cirrhotics were stratified into high- and low-risk groups for the presence of large esophageal varices. Patients with a platelet count of > or = 88,000/mm3 (median value) and no splenomegaly by physical examination had a risk of large esophageal varices of 7.2%. Those with splenomegaly or platelet count < 88,000/mm3 had a risk of large esophageal varices of 28% (p < 0.0001). Our data show that clinical predictors could be used to stratify cirrhotic patients for the risk of large esophageal varices and such stratification could be used to improve the cost effectiveness of screening endoscopy.
Machine learning search for variable stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pashchenko, Ilya N.; Sokolovsky, Kirill V.; Gavras, Panagiotis

2018-04-01

Photometric variability detection is often considered as a hypothesis testing problem: an object is variable if the null hypothesis that its brightness is constant can be ruled out given the measurements and their uncertainties. The practical applicability of this approach is limited by uncorrected systematic errors. We propose a new variability detection technique sensitive to a wide range of variability types while being robust to outliers and underestimated measurement uncertainties. We consider variability detection as a classification problem that can be approached with machine learning. Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), k Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Neural Nets (NN), Random Forests (RF), and Stochastic Gradient Boosting classifier (SGB) are applied to 18 features (variability indices) quantifying scatter and/or correlation between points in a light curve. We use a subset of Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment phase two (OGLE-II) Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) photometry (30 265 light curves) that was searched for variability using traditional methods (168 known variable objects) as the training set and then apply the NN to a new test set of 31 798 OGLE-II LMC light curves. Among 205 candidates selected in the test set, 178 are real variables, while 13 low-amplitude variables are new discoveries. The machine learning classifiers considered are found to be more efficient (select more variables and fewer false candidates) compared to traditional techniques using individual variability indices or their linear combination. The NN, SGB, SVM, and RF show a higher efficiency compared to LR and kNN.
Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change research. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.
Effects of a large wildfire on vegetation structure in a variable fire mosaic.

PubMed

Foster, C N; Barton, P S; Robinson, N M; MacGregor, C I; Lindenmayer, D B

2017-12-01

Management guidelines for many fire-prone ecosystems highlight the importance of maintaining a variable mosaic of fire histories for biodiversity conservation. Managers are encouraged to aim for fire mosaics that are temporally and spatially dynamic, include all successional states of vegetation, and also include variation in the underlying "invisible mosaic" of past fire frequencies, severities, and fire return intervals. However, establishing and maintaining variable mosaics in contemporary landscapes is subject to many challenges, one of which is deciding how the fire mosaic should be managed following the occurrence of large, unplanned wildfires. A key consideration for this decision is the extent to which the effects of previous fire history on vegetation and habitats persist after major wildfires, but this topic has rarely been investigated empirically. In this study, we tested to what extent a large wildfire interacted with previous fire history to affect the structure of forest, woodland, and heath vegetation in Booderee National Park in southeastern Australia. In 2003, a summer wildfire burned 49.5% of the park, increasing the extent of recently burned vegetation (<10 yr post-fire) to more than 72% of the park area. We tracked the recovery of vegetation structure for nine years following the wildfire and found that the strength and persistence of fire effects differed substantially between vegetation types. Vegetation structure was modified by wildfire in forest, woodland, and heath vegetation, but among-site variability in vegetation structure was reduced only by severe fire in woodland vegetation. There also were persistent legacy effects of the previous fire regime on some attributes of vegetation structure including forest ground and understorey cover, and woodland midstorey and overstorey cover. For example, woodland midstorey cover was greater on sites with higher fire frequency, irrespective of the severity of the 2003 wildfire. Our results show that even after a large, severe wildfire, underlying fire histories can contribute substantially to variation in vegetation structure. This highlights the importance of ensuring that efforts to reinstate variation in vegetation fire age after large wildfires do not inadvertently reduce variation in vegetation structure generated by the underlying invisible mosaic. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.
X-ray flux variability of active galactic nuclei observed using NuSTAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rani, Priyanka; Stalin, C. S.; Rakshit, Suvendu

2017-04-01

We present results of a systematic study of flux variability on hourly time-scales in a large sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in the 3-79 keV band using data from Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array. Our sample consists of four BL Lac objects (BL Lacs), three flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) 24 Seyfert 1, 42 Seyfert 2 and eight narrow line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxies. We find that in the 3-79 keV band, about 65 per cent of the sources in our sample show significant variations on hourly time-scales. Using the Mann-Whitney U-test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we find no difference in the variability behaviour between Seyfert 1 and 2 galaxies. The blazar sources (FSRQs and BL Lacs) in our sample are more variable than Seyfert galaxies that include Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 in the soft (3-10 keV), hard (10-79 keV) and total (3-79 keV) bands. NLSy1 galaxies show the highest duty cycle of variability (87 per cent), followed by BL Lacs (82 per cent), Seyfert galaxies (56 per cent) and FSRQs (23 per cent). We obtained flux doubling/halving time in the hard X-ray band less than 10 min in 11 sources. The flux variations between the hard and soft bands in all the sources in our sample are consistent with zero lag.
Catchment-scale variation in the nitrate concentrations of groundwater seeps in the Catskill Mountains, New York, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, A.J.; Findlay, S.E.G.; Burns, Douglas A.; Weathers, K.C.; Lovett, Gary M.

2001-01-01

Forested headwater streams in the Catskill Mountains of New York show significant among-catchment variability in mean annual nitrate (NO3-) concentrations. Large contributions from deep groundwater with high NO3- concentrations have been invoked to explain high NO3- concentrations in stream water during the growing season. To determine whether variable contributions of groundwater could explain among-catchment differences in streamwater, we measured NO3- concentrations in 58 groundwater seeps distributed across six catchments known to have different annual average streamwater concentrations. Seeps were identified based on release from bedrock fractures and bedding planes and had consistently lower temperatures than adjacent streamwaters. Nitrate concentrations in seeps ranged from near detection limits (0.005 mg NO3--N/L) to 0.75 mg NO3--N/L. Within individual catchments, groundwater residence time does not seem to strongly affect NO3- concentrations because in three out of four catchments there were non-significant correlations between seep silica (SiO2) concentrations, a proxy for residence time, and seep NO3- concentrations. Across catchments, there was a significant but weak negative relationship between NO3- and SiO2 concentrations. The large range in NO3- concentrations of seeps across catchments suggests: 1) the principal process generating among-catchment differences in streamwater NO3- concentrations must influence water before it enters the groundwater flow system and 2) this process must act at large spatial scales because among-catchment variability is much greater than intra-catchment variability. Differences in the quantity of groundwater contribution to stream baseflow are not sufficient to account for differences in streamwater NO3- concentrations among catchments in the Catskill Mountains.
Hyponatremia and fractures: should hyponatremia be further studied as a potential biochemical risk factor to be included in FRAX algorithms?

PubMed

Ayus, J C; Bellido, T; Negri, A L

2017-05-01

The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®) was developed by the WHO Collaborating Centre for metabolic bone diseases to evaluate fracture risk of patients. It is based on patient models that integrate the risk associated with clinical variables and bone mineral density (BMD) at the femoral neck. The clinical risk factors included in FRAX were chosen to include only well-established and independent variables related to skeletal fracture risk. The FRAX tool has acquired worldwide acceptance despite having several limitations. FRAX models have not included biochemical derangements in estimation of fracture risk due to the lack of validation in large prospective studies. Recently, there has been an increasing number of studies showing a relationship between hyponatremia and the occurrence of fractures. Hyponatremia is the most frequent electrolyte abnormality measured in the clinic, and serum sodium concentration is a very reproducible, affordable, and readily obtainable measurement. Thus, we think that hyponatremia should be further studied as a biochemical risk factor for skeletal fractures prediction, particularly those at the hip which carries the greatest morbidity and mortality. To achieve this will require the collection of large patient cohorts from diverse geographical locations that include a measure of serum sodium in addition to the other FRAX variables in large numbers, in both sexes, over a wide age range and with wide geographical representation. It would also require the inclusion of data on duration and severity of hyponatremia. Information will be required both on the risk of fracture associated with the occurrence and length of exposure to hyponatremia and to the relationship with the other risk variables included in FRAX and also the independent effect on the occurrence of death which is increased by hyponatremia.
On the fog variability over south Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syed, F. S.; Körnich, H.; Tjernström, M.

2012-12-01

An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and therefore must be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant positive trends were found in the fog frequency but this increase is not gradual, as with the humidity, but comprises of two distinct regimes shifts, in 1990 and 1998, with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of "cross-over temperature" combined with boundary layer stability. This fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to analyze fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from the North Atlantic in the upper troposphere that when causing higher pressure over the region results in an increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards.
Can Geostatistical Models Represent Nature's Variability? An Analysis Using Flume Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheidt, C.; Fernandes, A. M.; Paola, C.; Caers, J.

2015-12-01

The lack of understanding in the Earth's geological and physical processes governing sediment deposition render subsurface modeling subject to large uncertainty. Geostatistics is often used to model uncertainty because of its capability to stochastically generate spatially varying realizations of the subsurface. These methods can generate a range of realizations of a given pattern - but how representative are these of the full natural variability? And how can we identify the minimum set of images that represent this natural variability? Here we use this minimum set to define the geostatistical prior model: a set of training images that represent the range of patterns generated by autogenic variability in the sedimentary environment under study. The proper definition of the prior model is essential in capturing the variability of the depositional patterns. This work starts with a set of overhead images from an experimental basin that showed ongoing autogenic variability. We use the images to analyze the essential characteristics of this suite of patterns. In particular, our goal is to define a prior model (a minimal set of selected training images) such that geostatistical algorithms, when applied to this set, can reproduce the full measured variability. A necessary prerequisite is to define a measure of variability. In this study, we measure variability using a dissimilarity distance between the images. The distance indicates whether two snapshots contain similar depositional patterns. To reproduce the variability in the images, we apply an MPS algorithm to the set of selected snapshots of the sedimentary basin that serve as training images. The training images are chosen from among the initial set by using the distance measure to ensure that only dissimilar images are chosen. Preliminary investigations show that MPS can reproduce fairly accurately the natural variability of the experimental depositional system. Furthermore, the selected training images provide process information. They fall into three basic patterns: a channelized end member, a sheet flow end member, and one intermediate case. These represent the continuum between autogenic bypass or erosion, and net deposition.
[Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

PubMed

Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

2013-09-01

Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.
Are there meaningful individual differences in temporal inconsistency in self-reported personality?

PubMed

Soubelet, Andrea; Salthouse, Timothy A; Oishi, Shigehiro

2014-11-01

The current project had three goals. The first was to examine whether it is meaningful to refer to across-time variability in self-reported personality as an individual differences characteristic. The second was to investigate whether negative affect was associated with variability in self-reported personality, while controlling for mean levels, and correcting for measurement errors. The third goal was to examine whether variability in self-reported personality would be larger among young adults than among older adults, and whether the relation of variability with negative affect would be stronger at older ages than at younger ages. Two moderately large samples of participants completed the International Item Pool Personality questionnaire assessing the Big Five personality dimensions either twice or thrice, in addition to several measures of negative affect. Results were consistent with the hypothesis that within-person variability in self-reported personality is a meaningful individual difference characteristic. Some people exhibited greater across-time variability than others after removing measurement error, and people who showed temporal instability in one trait also exhibited temporal instability across the other four traits. However, temporal variability was not related to negative affect, and there was no evidence that either temporal variability or its association with negative affect varied with age.
Spatiotemporal Co-variability of Surface Climate for Renewable Energy across the Contiguous United States: Role of the North Atlantic Subtropical High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doering, K.; Steinschneider, S.

2017-12-01

The variability of renewable energy supply and drivers of demand across space and time largely determines the energy balance within power systems with a high penetration of renewable technologies. This study examines the joint spatiotemporal variability of summertime climate linked to renewable energy production (precipitation, wind speeds, insolation) and energy demand (temperature) across the contiguous United States (CONUS) between 1948 and 2015. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify the major modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation and related patterns of insolation and temperature. Canonical variates are then related to circulation anomalies to identify common drivers of the joint modes of climate variability. Results show that the first two modes of joint variability between summer wind speeds and precipitation exhibit pan-US dipole patterns with centers of action located in the eastern and central CONUS. Temperature and insolation also exhibit related US-wide dipoles. The relationship between canonical variates and lower-tropospheric geopotential height indicates that these modes are related to variability in the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). This insight can inform optimal strategies for siting renewables in an interconnected electric grid, and has implications for the impacts of climate variability and change on renewable energy systems.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubey, Vikas, E-mail: jsvikasdubey@gmail.com; Kaur, Jagjeet

Present paper reports synthesis and characterization of trivalent cerium (Ce{sup 3+}) doped zirconium dioxide (ZrO{sub 2}) phosphors. Effect of variable concentration of cerium on photoluminescence (PL) is studied. Samples were prepared by combustion synthesis technique which is suitable for less time taking techniques also for large scale production for phosphors. Starting material used for sample preparation are Zr(NO{sub 3}){sub 3} and Ce(NO{sub 3}){sub 3} and urea used as a fuel. All prepared phosphor with variable concentration of Ce{sup 3+} (0.1 to 2mol%) was studied by photoluminescence analysis it is found that the excitation spectra of prepared phosphor shows broad excitationmore » centred at 390nm. The excitation spectra with variable concentration of Ce{sup 3+} show strong peaks at 447nm. Spectrophotometric determinations of peaks are evaluated by Commission Internationale de I’Eclairage technique. Using this phosphor, the desired CIE values including emissions throughout the violet (390 nm) and blue (427 nm) of the spectra were achieved. Efficient blue light emitting diodes were fabricated using Ce{sup 3+} doped phosphor based on near ultraviolet (NUV) excited LED lights.« less
Variability of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and Barrier layers in the South Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawren, D.; Reason, C. J. C.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the influence of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) as well as salinity stratification during the passage of intense tropical cyclones. Using in-situ observations, reanalysis data and ocean model simulations, this study indicates that TC intensification is affected by high TCHP values and deep barrier layers. TCHP computed from 1/5° resolution regional ocean model (ROMS) agrees well with that derived from Argo float data and SODA which extends over a longer period (1950-2010). Time series of TCHP in the South Indian Ocean shows strongest interannual variability during 1997-1998, 2003, 2007 and is relatively highly correlated at 1 month lag with ENSO (r = 0.67, significant at 95 %). The interannual variability of barrier layer thickness (BLT) was analyzed over the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) and high-amplitude fluctuations in BLT appear to overlay with large positive TCHP values. Analysis also shows that both BLT and TCHP are modulated by the westward propagating Rossby waves. A case study of Category 5 Tropical cyclone BANSI that developed over and east of Madagascar during 11-18 Jan 2015 is presented.
Modeling of cytometry data in logarithmic space: When is a bimodal distribution not bimodal?

PubMed

Erez, Amir; Vogel, Robert; Mugler, Andrew; Belmonte, Andrew; Altan-Bonnet, Grégoire

2018-02-16

Recent efforts in systems immunology lead researchers to build quantitative models of cell activation and differentiation. One goal is to account for the distributions of proteins from single-cell measurements by flow cytometry or mass cytometry as readout of biological regulation. In that context, large cell-to-cell variability is often observed in biological quantities. We show here that these readouts, viewed in logarithmic scale may result in two easily-distinguishable modes, while the underlying distribution (in linear scale) is unimodal. We introduce a simple mathematical test to highlight this mismatch. We then dissect the flow of influence of cell-to-cell variability proposing a graphical model which motivates higher-dimensional analysis of the data. Finally we show how acquiring additional biological information can be used to reduce uncertainty introduced by cell-to-cell variability, helping to clarify whether the data is uni- or bimodal. This communication has cautionary implications for manual and automatic gating strategies, as well as clustering and modeling of single-cell measurements. © 2018 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2018 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.
Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.
Wind effect on salt transport variability in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandeep, K. K.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits large spatial variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) pattern caused by its unique hydrological, meteorological and oceanographical characteristics. This SSS variability is largely controlled by the seasonally reversing monsoon winds and the associated currents. Further, the BoB receives substantial freshwater inputs through excess precipitation over evaporation and river discharge. Rivers like Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari, and Irawwady discharge annually a freshwater volume in range between 1.5 x 1012 and 1.83 x 1013 m3 into the bay. A major volume of this freshwater input to the bay occurs during the southwest monsoon (June-September) period. In the present study, a relative role of winds in the SSS variability in the bay is investigated by using an eddy-resolving three dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) numerical model. The model is configured with realistic bathymetry, coastline of study region and forced with daily climatology of atmospheric variables. River discharges from the major rivers are distributed in the model grid points representing their respective geographic locations. Salt transport estimate from the model simulation for realistic case are compared with the standard reference datasets. Further, different experiments were carried out with idealized surface wind forcing representing the normal, low, high, and very high wind speed conditions in the bay while retaining the realistic daily varying directions for all the cases. The experimental simulations exhibit distinct dispersal patterns of the freshwater plume and SSS in different experiments in response to the idealized winds. Comparison of the meridional and zonal surface salt transport estimated for each experiment showed strong seasonality with varying magnitude in the bay with a maximum spatial and temporal variability in the western and northern parts of the BoB.

Utilization of physicochemical variables developed from changes in sensory attributes and consumer acceptability to predict the shelf life of fresh-cut mango fruit.

PubMed

Salinas-Hernández, Rosa María; González-Aguilar, Gustavo A; Tiznado-Hernández, Martín Ernesto

2015-01-01

Sensory evaluation is the ideal tool for shelf-life determination. With the objective to develop an easy shelf-life indicator, color (L*, a*, b*, chroma and hue angle), total soluble solids (TSS), firmness (F), pH, acidity, and the sensory attributes of appearance, brightness, browning, odor, flavor, texture, color, acidity and sweetness were evaluated in fresh cut mangoes (FCM) stored at 5, 10, 15 and 20 °C. Overall acceptability was evaluated by consumers. Correlation analysis between sensory attributes and physicochemical variables was carried out. Physicochemical cut-off points based on sensory attributes and consumer acceptability was obtained by regression analysis and utilized to estimate FCM shelf-life by kinetic models fitted to each variable. The validation of the model was done by comparing the shelf life estimated by kinetic models and consumers. It was recorded large correlations between appearance, brightness, and color with L*; appearance and color with chroma and hue angle; sweetness and flavor with TSS, and between F and texture. The shelf life estimated based on consumer using a 9 point hedonic scale was in the range of 10-12, 2.3-2.6, 1.3-1.5 and 1.0-1.1 days for 5, 10, 15 and 20 °C. It was recorded large correlation coefficients between the shelf life estimated by consumer acceptability scores and physicochemical variables. Kinetic models based on physicochemical variables showed a tendency to overestimate the shelf life as compared with the models bases on the sensory attributes. It was concluded that physicochemical variables can be used as a tool to estimate the FCM shelf life.
Zooplankton time-series in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean): Variability during the decade 1994 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández de Puelles, Maria Luz; Alemany, Francisco; Jansá, Javier

2007-08-01

Studies of plankton time-series from the Balearic islands waters are presented for the past decade, with main emphasis on the variability of zooplankton and how it relates to the environment. The seasonal and interannual patterns of temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton abundance are described with data obtained between 1994 and 2003. Samples were collected every 10 days at a monitoring station in the Mallorca channel, an area with marked hydrographic variability in the Western Mediterranean. Mesoscale variability was also assessed using data from monthly sampling survey carried out between 1994 and 1999 in a three station transect located in the same study area. The copepods were the most abundant group with three higher peaks (March, May and September) distinguished during the annual cycle and a clear coastal-offshore decreasing gradient. Analysis of the zooplankton community revealed two distinct periods: the mixing period during winter and early spring, where copepods, siphonophores and ostracods were most abundant and, the stratified period characterised by an increase of cladocerans and meroplankton abundances. Remarkable interannual zooplankton variability was observed in relation to hydrographic regime with higher abundances of main groups during cool years, when northern Mediterranean waters prevailed in the area. The warmer years showed the lowest zooplankton abundances, associated with the inflow of less saline and nutrient-depleted Atlantic Waters. Moreover, the correlation found between copepod abundance and large scale climatic factors (e.g., NAO) suggested that they act as main driver of the zooplankton variability. Therefore, the seasonal but particularly the interannual variation observed in plankton abundance and structure patterns of the Balearic Sea seems to be highly modulated by large-scale forcing and can be considered an ideal place where to investigate potential consequences of global climate change.
Magnetically Controlled Variable Transformer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleiner, Charles T.

1994-01-01

Improved variable-transformer circuit, output voltage and current of which controlled by use of relatively small current supplied at relatively low power to control windings on its magnetic cores. Transformer circuits of this type called "magnetic amplifiers" because ratio between controlled output power and power driving control current of such circuit large. This ratio - power gain - can be as large as 100 in present circuit. Variable-transformer circuit offers advantages of efficiency, safety, and controllability over some prior variable-transformer circuits.
Potential of collocated radiometer and wind profiler observations for monsoon studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, B.; Prabha, Thara V.; Jaya Rao, Y.; Kiran, T.; Dinesh, G.; Chakravarty, Kaustav; Sonbawne, S. M.; Rajeevan, M.

2017-09-01

Collocated observations from microwave radiometer and wind profiler are used in a pilot study during the monsoon period to derive information on the thermodynamics and winds and association with rainfall characteristics. These instruments were operated throughout the monsoon season of 2015. Continuous vertical profiles of winds, temperature and humidity show significant promise for understanding the low-level jet, its periodicity and its association with moisture transport, clouds and precipitation embedded within the monsoon large-scale convection. Observations showed mutually beneficial in explaining variability that are part of the low frequency oscillations and the diurnal variability during monsoon. These observations highlight the importance of locally driven convective systems, in the presence of weak moisture transport over the area. The episodic moisture convergence showed a periodicity of 9 days which matches with the subsequent convection and precipitation and thermodynamic regimes. Inferences from the diurnal cycle of moisture transport and the convective activity, relationship with the low-level jet characteristics and thermodynamics are also illustrated.
Low-latitude variability of ice cloud properties and cloud thermodynamic phase observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, B. H.; Yue, Q.; Davis, S. M.; Fetzer, E. J.; Schreier, M. M.; Tian, B.; Wong, S.

2016-12-01

We will quantify the time and space dependence of ice cloud effective radius (CER), optical thickness (COT), cloud top temperature (CTT), effective cloud fraction (ECF), and cloud thermodynamic phase (ice, liquid, or unknown) with the Version 6 Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite observational data set from September 2002 until present. We show that cloud frequency, CTT, COT, and ECF have substantially different responses to ENSO variations. Large-scale changes in ice CER are also observed with a several micron tropics-wide increase during the 2015-2016 El Niño and similar decreases during the La Niña phase. We show that the ice CER variations reflect fundamental changes in the spatial distributions and relative frequencies of different ice cloud types. Lastly, the high spatial and temporal resolution variability of the cloud fields are explored and we show that these data capture a multitude of convectively coupled tropical waves such as Kelvin, westward and eastward intertio-gravity, equatorial Rossby, and mixed Rossby-gravity waves.
Comparative analysis of used car price evaluation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chuancan; Hao, Lulu; Xu, Cong

2017-05-01

An accurate used car price evaluation is a catalyst for the healthy development of used car market. Data mining has been applied to predict used car price in several articles. However, little is studied on the comparison of using different algorithms in used car price estimation. This paper collects more than 100,000 used car dealing records throughout China to do empirical analysis on a thorough comparison of two algorithms: linear regression and random forest. These two algorithms are used to predict used car price in three different models: model for a certain car make, model for a certain car series and universal model. Results show that random forest has a stable but not ideal effect in price evaluation model for a certain car make, but it shows great advantage in the universal model compared with linear regression. This indicates that random forest is an optimal algorithm when handling complex models with a large number of variables and samples, yet it shows no obvious advantage when coping with simple models with less variables.
Submesoscale Sea Surface Temperature Variability from UAV and Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, S. L.; Emery, W. J.; Tandy, W., Jr.; Good, W. S.

2017-12-01

Technological advances in spatial resolution of observations have revealed the importance of short-lived ocean processes with scales of O(1km). These submesoscale processes play an important role for the transfer of energy from the meso- to small scales and for generating significant spatial and temporal intermittency in the upper ocean, critical for the mixing of the oceanic boundary layer. Submesoscales have been observed in sea surface temperatures (SST) from satellites. Satellite SST measurements are spatial averages over the footprint of the satellite. When the variance of the SST distribution within the footprint is small, the average value is representative of the SST over the whole pixel. If the variance is large, the spatial heterogeneity is a source of uncertainty in satellite derived SSTs. Here we show evidence that the submesoscale variability in SSTs at spatial scales of 1km is responsible for the spatial variability within satellite footprints. Previous studies of the spatial variability in SST, using ship-based radiometric data suggested that variability at scales smaller than 1 km is significant and affects the uncertainty of satellite-derived skin SSTs. We examine data collected by a calibrated thermal infrared radiometer, the Ball Experimental Sea Surface Temperature (BESST), flown on a UAV over the Arctic Ocean and compare them with coincident measurements from the MODIS spaceborne radiometer to assess the spatial variability of SST within 1 km pixels. By taking the standard deviation of all the BESST measurements within individual MODIS pixels we show that significant spatial variability exists within the footprints. The distribution of the surface variability measured by BESST shows a peak value of O(0.1K) with 95% of the pixels showing σ < 0.45K. More importantly, high-variability pixels are located at density fronts in the marginal ice zone, which are a primary source of submesoscale intermittency near the surface in the Arctic Ocean. Wavenumber spectra of the BESST SSTs indicate a spectral slope of -2, consistent with the presence of submesoscale processes. Furthermore, not only is the BESST wavenumber spectra able to match the MODIS SST spectra well, but also extends the spectral slope of -2 by 2 decades relative to MODIS, from wavelengths of 8km to 0.08km.
The Cluster AgeS Experiment (CASE). Detecting Aperiodic Photometric Variability with the Friends of Friends Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozyczka, M.; Narloch, W.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Thompson, I. B.; Pych, W.; Poleski, R.

2018-03-01

We adapt the friends of friends algorithm to the analysis of light curves, and show that it can be succesfully applied to searches for transient phenomena in large photometric databases. As a test case we search OGLE-III light curves for known dwarf novae. A single combination of control parameters allows us to narrow the search to 1% of the data while reaching a ≍90% detection efficiency. A search involving ≍2% of the data and three combinations of control parameters can be significantly more effective - in our case a 100% efficiency is reached. The method can also quite efficiently detect semi-regular variability. In particular, 28 new semi-regular variables have been found in the field of the globular cluster M22, which was examined earlier with the help of periodicity-searching algorithms.
Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.
THE FERMI ALL-SKY VARIABILITY ANALYSIS: A LIST OF FLARING GAMMA-RAY SOURCES AND THE SEARCH FOR TRANSIENTS IN OUR GALAXY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.

2013-07-01

In this paper, we present the Fermi All-sky Variability Analysis (FAVA), a tool to systematically study the variability of the gamma-ray sky measured by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. For each direction on the sky, FAVA compares the number of gamma-rays observed in a given time window to the number of gamma-rays expected for the average emission detected from that direction. This method is used in weekly time intervals to derive a list of 215 flaring gamma-ray sources. We proceed to discuss the 27 sources found at Galactic latitudes smaller than 10 Degree-Sign andmore » show that, despite their low latitudes, most of them are likely of extragalactic origin.« less
The FERMI All-Sky Variability Analysis: A List of Flaring Gamma-Ray Sources and the Search for Transients in Our Galaxy

DOE PAGES

Ackermann, M.; Ajello, M.; Albert, A.; ...

2013-06-17

In this paper, we present the Fermi All-sky Variability Analysis (FAVA), a tool to systematically study the variability of the gamma-ray sky measured by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. In addition, for each direction on the sky, FAVA compares the number of gamma-rays observed in a given time window to the number of gamma-rays expected for the average emission detected from that direction. This method is used in weekly time intervals to derive a list of 215 flaring gamma-ray sources. Finally, we proceed to discuss the 27 sources found at Galactic latitudes smaller thanmore » 10° and show that, despite their low latitudes, most of them are likely of extragalactic origin.« less
Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals.

PubMed

González-Suárez, Manuela; Revilla, Eloy

2013-02-01

Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
Biophysical Variables Retrieval Over Russian Winter Wheat Fields Using Medium Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

d'Andrimont, Raphael; Waldner, Francois; Bartalev, Sergey; Plotnikov, Dmitry; Kleschenko, Alexander; Virchenko, Oleg; de Wit, Allard; Roerink, Gerbert; Defourny, Pierre

2013-12-01

Winter wheat production in the Russian Federation represents one of the sources of uncertainty for the international commodity market. In particular, adverse weather conditions may induce winter kill resulting in large yields' losses. Improving the monitoring of winter- wheat in Russia with a focus on winter-kill damage and its impacts on yield is thus a key challenge.This paper presents the methods and the results of the biophysical variables retrieval on a daily basis as an input for crop growth modeling at parcel level over a 10-years period (2003-2012) in the Russian context. The field campaigns carried out on 2 sites in the Tula region from 2010 to 2012 shows that it is possible to characterize the spatial and temporal variability at pixel, field and regional scale using medium resolution sensors (MODIS) over Russian fields.
Exploring the spatial variability of soil properties in an Alfisol Catena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosemary, F.; Vitharana, U. W. A.; Indraratne, S. P.

Detailed digital soil maps showing the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties consistent with the landscape are required for site-specific management of plant nutrients, land use planning and process-based environmental modeling. We characterized the short-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil properties in an Alfisol catena in a tropical landscape of Sri Lanka. The impact of different land-uses (paddy, vegetable and un-cultivated) was examined to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities on the variability of soil properties at the catenary level. Conditioned Latin hypercube sampling was used to collect 58 geo-referenced topsoil samples (0–30 cm) from the study area. Soil samples were analyzedmore » for pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic carbon (OC), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and texture. The spatial correlation between soil properties was analyzed by computing crossvariograms and subsequent fitting of theoretical model. Spatial distribution maps were developed using ordinary kriging. The range of soil properties, pH: 4.3–7.9; EC: 0.01–0.18 dS m –1 ; OC: 0.1–1.37%; CEC: 0.44– 11.51 cmol (+) kg –1 ; clay: 1.5–25% and sand: 59.1–84.4% and their coefficient of variations indicated a large variability in the study area. Electrical conductivity and pH showed a strong spatial correlation which was reflected by the cross-variogram close to the hull of the perfect correlation. Moreover, cross-variograms calculated for EC and Clay, CEC and OC, CEC and clay and CEC and pH indicated weak positive spatial correlation between these properties. Relative nugget effect (RNE) calculated from variograms showed strongly structured spatial variability for pH, EC and sand content (RNE < 25%) while CEC, organic carbon and clay content showed moderately structured spatial variability (25% < RNE < 75%). Spatial dependencies for examined soil properties ranged from 48 to 984 m. The mixed effects model fitting followed by Tukey's post-hoc test showed significant effect of land use on the spatial variability of EC. Our study revealed a structured variability of topsoil properties in the selected tropical Alfisol catena. Except for EC, observed variability was not modified by the land uses. Investigated soil properties showed distinct spatial structures at different scales and magnitudes of strength. Our results will be useful for digital soil mapping, site specific management of soil properties, developing appropriate land use plans and quantifying anthropogenic impacts on the soil system.« less
The Effect of Yaw Coupling in Turning Maneuvers of Large Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNeill, Walter E.; Innis, Robert C.

1965-01-01

A study has been made, using a piloted moving simulator, of the effects of the yaw-coupling parameters N(sub p) and N(sub delta(sub a) on the lateral-directional handling qualities of a large transport airplane at landing-approach airspeed. It is shown that the desirable combinations of these parameters tend to be more proverse when compared with values typical of current aircraft. Results of flight tests in a large variable-stability jet transport showed trends which were similar to those of the simulator data. Areas of minor disagreement, which were traced to differences in airplane geometry, indicate that pilot consciousness of side acceleration forces can be an important factor in handling qualities of future long-nosed transport aircraft.
Winds in the meteor zone over Trivandrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddi, C. R.; Rajeev, K.; Ramakumar, Geetha

1991-04-01

The height profiles of the zonal and meridional wind obtained from the meteor wind radar data recorded at Trivandrum (8 deg 36 min N, 77 deg E) are presented. Large wind shears were found to exist in the meteor zone over Trivandrum. The profiles showed quasi-sinusoidal variations with altitude and vertical wavelength of the oscillation in the range 15-25 km. Further, there was a large day-to-day variability in the profiles obtained for the same local time on consecutive days. The results are discussed in the light of the winds due to tides and equatorial waves in the low latitudes. The implications of the large wind shears with reference to the local wind effects on the equatorial electrojet are outlined.
Low Reynolds number numerical solutions of chaotic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pulliam, Thomas H.

1989-01-01

Numerical computations of two-dimensional flow past an airfoil at low Mach number, large angle of attack, and low Reynolds number are reported which show a sequence of flow states leading from single-period vortex shedding to chaos via the period-doubling mechanism. Analysis of the flow in terms of phase diagrams, Poincare sections, and flowfield variables are used to substantiate these results. The critical Reynolds number for the period-doubling bifurcations is shown to be sensitive to mesh refinement and the influence of large amounts of numerical dissipation. In extreme cases, large amounts of added dissipation can delay or completely eliminate the chaotic response. The effect of artificial dissipation at these low Reynolds numbers is to produce a new effective Reynolds number for the computations.
Effects of practice on variability in an isochronous serial interval production task: asymptotical levels of tapping variability after training are similar to those of musicians.

PubMed

Madison, Guy; Karampela, Olympia; Ullén, Fredrik; Holm, Linus

2013-05-01

Timing permeates everyday activities such as walking, dancing and music, yet the effect of short-term practice in this ubiquitous activity is largely unknown. In two training experiments involving sessions spread across several days, we examined short-term practice effects on timing variability in a sequential interval production task. In Experiment 1, we varied the mode of response (e.g., drumstick and finger tapping) and the level of sensory feedback. In Experiment 2 we varied the interval in 18 levels ranging from 500 ms to 1624 ms. Both experiments showed a substantial decrease in variability within the first hour of practice, but little thereafter. This effect was similar across mode of response, amount of feedback, and interval duration, and was manifested as a reduction in both local variability (between neighboring intervals) and drift (fluctuation across multiple intervals). The results suggest mainly effects on motor implementation rather than on cognitive timing processes, and have methodological implications for timing studies that have not controlled for practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.
Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asoka, Akarsh; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Mishra, Vimal

2017-01-01

The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm/yr and increased by 1 to 2 cm/yr in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.

A near-infrared variability campaign of TMR-1: New light on the nature of the candidate protoplanet TMR-1C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaz, B.; Martín, E. L.; Petr-Gotzens, M. G.; Monin, J.-L.

2013-11-01

We present a near-infrared (NIR) photometric variability study of the TMR-1 system, a Class I protobinary located in the Taurus molecular cloud. Our aim is to confirm NIR variability for the candidate protoplanet, TMR-1C, located at a separation of about 10″ (~1000 AU) from the protobinary. We conducted a photometric monitoring campaign between October 2011 and January 2012 using the CFHT/WIRCam imager. We were able to obtain 44 epochs of observations in each of the H and Ks filters, resulting in high-quality photometry with uncertainties of less than one-tenth of a magnitude. The shortest time difference between two epochs is ~14 min, and the longest is ~4 months. Based on the final accuracy of our observations, we do not find any strong evidence of short-term NIR variability at amplitudes of ≥0.15-0.2 mag for TMR-1C or TMR-1AB. Our present observations, however, have reconfirmed the large-amplitude long-term variations in the NIR emission for TMR-1C, which were observed between 1998 and 2002, and have also shown that no particular correlation exists between the brightness and the color changes. The object TMR-1C became brighter in the H band by ~1.8 mag between 1998 and 2002, and then fainter again by ~0.7 mag between 2002 and 2011. In contrast, TMR-1C became continually brighter in the Ks band in the period between 1998 and 2011. The (H - Ks) color for TMR-1C shows large variations, from a red value of 1.3 ± 0.07 and 1.6 ± 0.05 mag in 1998 and 2000, to a much bluer color of -0.1 ± 0.5 mag in 2002, and then again a red color of 1.1 ± 0.08 mag in 2011. The difference in the variability trends observed in the H and Ks bands suggests the presence of more than one origin for the observed variations. The observed variability from 1998 to 2011 suggests that TMR-1C becomes fainter when it gets redder, as expected from variable extinction, while the brightening observed in the Ks band could be due to physical variations in the inner disk structure of TMR-1C. We have argued in favor of TMR-1C being a young stellar object (YSO), rather than a faint background star passing behind some foreground material. There may exist short-term NIR variations at an amplitude level lower than our detection limit (~0.2 mag), which would be consistent with the YSO hypothesis. If the observed long-term variability is due to foreground extinction, then we would expect simultaneous brightening/dimming in the H and Ks bands, which we do not find to be the case. Variable foreground extinction is also expected to occur over a large spatial scale; we monitored several other objects within 4'× 4' of the TMR-1 system, and found only two objects which show long-term variations, indicating that this is not a large-scale effect. The NIR colors for TMR-1C obtained using the high-precision photometry from 1998, 2000, and 2011 observations are similar to the protostars in Taurus, suggesting that it could be a faint dusty Class I source. This object is thus a strong candidate YSO, but final confirmation as a protoplanet remains elusive and requires further investigation. Our study has also revealed two new variable sources in the vicinity of TMR-1AB that show long-term variations of ~1-2 mag in the NIR colors between 2002 and 2011. The proper motions measured for TMR-1AB and TMR-1C are -40,+58 mas/yr and -22,+5 mas/yr, respectively, with an uncertainty of ~31 mas/yr. A larger baseline of 20 years or more is required to confidently confirm the physical association of TMR-1AB and C. Tables 1-4 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
Spatiotemporal Variability of Surface Meteorological Variables During Fog and No-Fog Events in the Heber Valley, UT; Selected Case Studies From MATERHORN-Fog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bossche, Michael; De Wekker, Stephan F. J.

2016-09-01

We investigated the spatiotemporal variability of surface meteorological variables in the nocturnal boundary layer using six automatic weather stations deployed in the Heber Valley, UT, during the MATERHORN-Fog experiment. The stations were installed on the valley floor within a 1.5 km × 0.8 km area and collected 1-Hz wind and pressure data and 0.2-Hz temperature and humidity data. We describe the weather stations and analyze the spatiotemporal variability of the measured variables during three nights with radiative cooling. Two nights were characterized by the presence of dense ice fog, one night with a persistent (`heavy') fog, and one with a short-lived (`moderate') fog, while the third night had no fog. Frost-point depressions were larger preceding the night without fog and showed a continued decrease during the no-fog night. On both fog nights, the frost-point depression reached values close to zero early in the night, but ~5 h earlier on the heavy-fog night than on the moderate-fog night. Spatial variability of temperature and humidity was smallest during the heavy-fog night and increased temporarily during short periods when wind speeds increased and the fog lifted. During all three nights, wind speeds did not exceed 2 m/s. The temporal variability of the wind speed and direction was larger during the fog nights than during the no-fog nights, but was particularly large during the heavy-fog night. The large variability corresponded with short-lived (5-10 min) pressure variations with amplitudes on the order of 0.5 hPa, indicating gravity wave activity. These pressure fluctuations occurred at all stations and were correlated in particular with variability in wind direction. Although not able to provide a complete picture of the nocturnal boundary layer, our low-cost weather stations were able to continuously collect data that were comparable to those of nearby research-grade instruments. From these data, we distinguished between fog and no-fog events, successfully quantified spatiotemporal variations in surface properties during these events, and detected gravity waves.
Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, resulting in overestimated North Atlantic SST variability. Concerning the influence of locally (isotropically) increased resolution, the ENSO pattern and index statistics improve significantly with higher resolution around the equator, illustrating the potential of the novel unstructured-mesh method for global climate modeling.
Bias correction for rainrate retrievals from satellite passive microwave sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, David A.

1990-01-01

Rainrates retrieved from past and present satellite-borne microwave sensors are affected by a fundamental remote sensing problem. Sensor fields-of-view are typically large enough to encompass substantial rainrate variability, whereas the retrieval algorithms, based on radiative transfer calculations, show a non-linear relationship between rainrate and microwave brightness temperature. Retrieved rainrates are systematically too low. A statistical model of the bias problem shows that bias correction factors depend on the probability distribution of instantaneous rainrate and on the average thickness of the rain layer.
Rotordynamic Feasibility of a Conceptual Variable-Speed Power Turbine Propulsion System for Large Civil Tilt-Rotor Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, Samuel

2012-01-01

A variable-speed power turbine concept is analyzed for rotordynamic feasibility in a Large Civil Tilt-Rotor (LCTR) class engine. Implementation of a variable-speed power turbine in a rotorcraft engine would enable high efficiency propulsion at the high forward velocities anticipated of large tilt-rotor vehicles. Therefore, rotordynamics is a critical issue for this engine concept. A preliminary feasibility study is presented herein to address this concern and identify if variable-speed is possible in a conceptual engine sized for the LCTR. The analysis considers critical speed placement in the operating speed envelope, stability analysis up to the maximum anticipated operating speed, and potential unbalance response amplitudes to determine that a variable-speed power turbine is likely to be challenging, but not impossible to achieve in a tilt-rotor propulsion engine.
Modeling the influence of atmospheric leading modes on the variability of the Arctic freshwater cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, L.; Sein, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2013-12-01

Global general circulation models show remarkable differences in modeling the Arctic freshwater cycle. While they agree on the general sinks and sources of the freshwater budget, they differ largely in the magnitude of the mean values as well as in the variability of the freshwater terms. Regional models can better resolve the complex topography and small scale processes, but they are often uncoupled, thus missing the air-sea interaction. Additionally, regional models mostly use some kind of salinity restoring or flux correction, thus disturbing the freshwater budget. Our approach to investigate the Arctic hydrologic cycle and its variability is a regional atmosphere-ocean model setup, consisting of the global ocean model MPIOM with high resolution in the Arctic coupled to the regional atmosphere model REMO. The domain of the atmosphere model covers all catchment areas of the rivers draining into the Arctic. To account for all sinks and sources of freshwater in the Arctic, we include a discharge model providing terrestrial lateral waterflows. We run the model without salinity restoring but with freshwater correction, which is set to zero in the Arctic. This allows for the analysis of a closed freshwater budget in the Artic region. We perform experiments for the second half of the 20th century and use data from the global model MPIOM/ECHAM5 performed with historical conditions, that was used within the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC, as forcing for our regional model. With this setup, we investigate how the dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability impact the variability in the freshwater components. We focus on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of winter mean sea level pressure, as well as on the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Siberian High. These modes have a large impact on the Arctic Ocean circulation as well as on the solid and liquid export through Fram Strait and through the Canadian archipelago. However, they cannot explain the variability in river runoff. We find that not only winter conditions are responsible for increased river runoff, but also an enhanced summer cyclone activity, especially over Eurasia.
The Influence of Sea Ice on Primary Production in the Southern Ocean: A Satellite Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Walker O., Jr.; Comiso, Josefino C.

2007-01-01

Sea ice in the Southern Ocean is a major controlling factor on phytoplankton productivity and growth, but the relationship is modified by regional differences in atmospheric and oceanographic conditions. We used the phytoplankton biomass (binned at 7-day intervals), PAR and cloud cover data from SeaWiFS, ice concentrations data from SSM/I and AMSR-E, and sea-surface temperature data from AVHRR, in combination with a vertically integrated model to estimate primary productivity throughout the Southern Ocean (south of 60"s). We also selected six areas within the Southern Ocean and analyzed the variability of the primary productivity and trends through time, as well as the relationship of sea ice to productivity. We found substantial interannual variability in productivity from 1997 - 2005 in all regions of the Southern Ocean, and this variability appeared to be driven in large part by ice dynamics. The most productive regions of Antarctic waters were the continental shelves, which showed the earliest growth, the maximum biomass, and the greatest areal specific productivity. In contrast, no large, sustained blooms occurred in waters of greater depth (> 1,000 m). We suggest that this is due to the slightly greater mixed layer depths found in waters off the continental shelf, and that the interactive effects of iron and irradiance (that is, increased iron requirements in low irradiance environments) result in the limitation of phytoplankton biomass over large regions of the Southern Ocean.
Power Supply for Variable Frequency Induction Heating Using MERS Soft-Switching High Frequency Inverter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isobe, Takanori; Kitahara, Tadayuki; Fukutani, Kazuhiko; Shimada, Ryuichi

Variable frequency induction heating has great potential for industrial heating applications due to the possibility of achieving heating distribution control; however, large-scale induction heating with variable frequency has not yet been introduced for practical use. This paper proposes a high frequency soft-switching inverter for induction heating that can achieve variable frequency operation. One challenge of variable frequency induction heating is increasing power electronics ratings. This paper indicates that its current source type dc-link configuration and soft-switching characteristics can make it possible to build a large-scale system with variable frequency capability. A 90-kVA 150-1000Hz variable frequency experimental power supply for steel strip induction heating was developed. Experiments confirmed the feasibility of variable frequency induction heating with proposed converter and the advantages of variable frequency operation.
Bed Load Variability and Morphology of Gravel Bed Rivers Subject to Unsteady Flow: A Laboratory Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redolfi, M.; Bertoldi, W.; Tubino, M.; Welber, M.

2018-02-01

Measurement and estimation of bed load transport in gravel bed rivers are highly affected by its temporal fluctuations. Such variability is primarily driven by the flow regime but is also associated with a variety of inherent channel processes, such as flow turbulence, grain entrainment, and bed forms migration. These internal and external controls often act at comparable time scales, and are therefore difficult to disentangle, thus hindering the study of bed load variability under unsteady flow regime. In this paper, we report on laboratory experiments performed in a large, mobile bed flume where typical hydromorphological conditions of gravel bed rivers were reproduced. Data from a large number of replicated runs, including triangular and square-wave hydrographs, were used to build a statistically sound description of sediment transport processes. We found that the inherent variability of bed load flux strongly depends on the sampling interval, and it is significantly higher in complex, wandering or braided channels. This variability can be filtered out by computing the mean response over the experimental replicates, which allows us to highlight two distinctive phenomena: (i) an overshooting (undershooting) response of the mean bed load flux to a sudden increase (decrease) of discharge, and (ii) a clockwise hysteresis in the sediment rating curve. We then provide an interpretation of these findings through a conceptual mathematical model, showing how both phenomena are associated with a lagging morphological adaptation to unsteady flow. Overall, this work provides basic information for evaluating, monitoring, and managing gravel transport in morphologically active rivers.
Numerical investigation of the variable nozzle effect on the mixed flow turbine performance characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meziri, B.; Hamel, M.; Hireche, O.; Hamidou, K.

2016-09-01

There are various matching ways between turbocharger and engine, the variable nozzle turbine is the most significant method. The turbine design must be economic with high efficiency and large capacity over a wide range of operational conditions. These design intents are used in order to decrease thermal load and improve thermal efficiency of the engine. This paper presents an original design method of a variable nozzle vane for mixed flow turbines developed from previous experimental and numerical studies. The new device is evaluated with a numerical simulation over a wide range of rotational speeds, pressure ratios, and different vane angles. The compressible turbulent steady flow is solved using the ANSYS CFX software. The numerical results agree well with experimental data in the nozzleless configuration. In the variable nozzle case, the results show that the turbine performance characteristics are well accepted in different open positions and improved significantly in low speed regime and at low pressure ratio.
Observing variable stars at the University of Athens Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazeas, K.; Manimanis, V. N.; Niarchos, P. G.

In 1999 the University of Athens installed a 0.4-m Cassegrain telescope (CCT-16, by DFM Engineering) on the roof of the Department of Astrophysics, Astronomy and Mechanics, equipped with a ST-8 CCD camera and Bessel UBVRI filters. Although the telescope was built for educational purposes, we found it can be a perfect research instrument, as we can obtain fine quality light curves of bright variable stars, even from a place close to the city center. Light curves of the δ Scuti star V1162 Ori and of the sdB star PG 1336-018 are presented, showing the ability of a 40-cm telescope to detect negligible luminosity fluctuations of relatively bright variable stars. To date, we succeed in making photometry of stars down to 15th magnitude with satisfactory results. We expect to achieve even better results in the future, as our methods still improve, and as the large number of relatively bright stars gives us the chance to study various fields of CCD photometry of variables.
Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands.

PubMed

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F; Kauhanen, Peter G; Bird, Douglas W

2012-06-26

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet-dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes.
Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under Anthropogenic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

2018-01-01

Pacific decadal variability has strong impacts on the statistics of weather, atmosphere extremes, droughts, hurricanes, marine heatwaves, and marine ecosystems. Sea surface temperature (SST) observations show that the variance of the El Niño-like decadal variability has increased by 30% (1920-2015) with a stronger coupling between the major Pacific climate modes. Although we cannot attribute these trends to global climate change, the examination of 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LENS) forced with the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario (1920-2100) suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in Pacific decadal variance will emerge by 2020 in response to a more energetic North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)—a well-known El Niño precursor. The PMM is a key mechanism for energizing and coupling tropical and extratropical decadal variability. In the LENS, the increase in PMM variance is consistent with an intensification of the winds-evaporation-SST thermodynamic feedback that results from a warmer mean climate.
Uncertainty in Arctic climate projections traced to variability of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, WIlco; van Heerwaarden, Chiel

2017-04-01

The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.
One perspective on spatial variability in geologic mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markewich, H.W.; Cooper, S.C.

1991-01-01

This paper discusses some of the differences between geologic mapping and soil mapping, and how the resultant maps are interpreted. The role of spatial variability in geologic mapping is addressed only indirectly because in geologic mapping there have been few attempts at quantification of spatial differences. This is largely because geologic maps deal with temporal as well as spatial variability and consider time, age, and origin, as well as composition and geometry. Both soil scientists and geologists use spatial variability to delineate mappable units; however, the classification systems from which these mappable units are defined differ greatly. Mappable soil units are derived from systematic, well-defined, highly structured sets of taxonomic criteria; whereas mappable geologic units are based on a more arbitrary heirarchy of categories that integrate many features without strict values or definitions. Soil taxonomy is a sorting tool used to reduce heterogeneity between soil units. Thus at the series level, soils in any one series are relatively homogeneous because their range of properties is small and well-defined. Soil maps show the distribution of soils on the land surface. Within a map area, soils, which are often less than 2 m thick, show a direct correlation to topography and to active surface processes as well as to parent material.
Validity and Usefulness of `Wearable Blood Pressure Sensing' for Detection of Inappropriate Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability in the Elderly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iijima, Katsuya; Kameyama, Yumi; Akishita, Masahiro; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Yanagimoto, Shintaro; Imai, Yasushi; Yahagi, Naoki; Lopez, Guillaume; Shuzo, Masaki; Yamada, Ichiro

An increase in short-term blood pressure (BP) variability is a characteristic feature in the elderly. It makes the management of hemodynamics more difficult, because it is frequently seen disturbed baro-reflex function and increased arterial stiffness, leading to isolated systolic hypertension. Large BP variability aggravates hypertensive target organ damage and is an independent risk factor for the cardiovascular (CV) events in elderly hypertensive patients. Therefore, appropriate control in BP is indispensable to manage lifestyle-related diseases and to prevent subsequent CV events. In addition, accumulating recent reports show that excessive BP variability is also associated with a decline in cognitive function and fall in the elderly. In the clinical settings, we usually evaluate their health condition, mainly with single point BP measurement using cuff inflation. However, unfortunately we are not able to find the close changes in BP by the traditional way. Here, we can show our advantageous approach of continuous BP monitoring using newly developing device `wearable BP sensing' without a cuff stress in the elderly. The new device could reflect systolic BP and its detailed changes, in consistent with cuff-based BP measurement. Our new challenge suggests new possibility of its clinical application with high accuracy.
Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in north-east Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikdar, Dhirendra N.; Elsner, James B.

1987-01-01

Large scale circulation features are presented as related to wet spells over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) during the rainy season (March and April) of 1979. The rainy season is divided into dry and wet periods; the FGGE and geostationary satellite data was averaged; and mean and departure fields of basic variables and cloudiness were studied. Analysis of seasonal mean circulation features show: lowest sea level easterlies beneath upper level westerlies; weak meridional winds; high relative humidity over the Amazon basin and relatively dry conditions over the South Atlantic Ocean. A fluctuation was found in the large scale circulation features on time scales of a few weeks or so over Nordeste and the South Atlantic sector. Even the subtropical High SLPs have large departures during wet episodes, implying a short period oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation.
Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in northeast Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikdar, D. N.; Elsner, J. B.

1985-01-01

Large scale circulation features are presented as related to wet spells over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) during the rainy season (March and April) of 1979. The rainy season season is devided into dry and wet periods, the FGGE and geostationary satellite data was averaged and mean and departure fields of basic variables and cloudiness were studied. Analysis of seasonal mean circulation features show: lowest sea level easterlies beneath upper level westerlies; weak meridional winds; high relative humidity over the Amazon basin and relatively dry conditions over the South Atlantic Ocean. A fluctuation was found in the large scale circulation features on time scales of a few weeks or so over Nordeste and the South Atlantic sector. Even the subtropical High SLP's have large departures during wet episodes, implying a short period oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation.
Skin Friction Reduction Through Large-Scale Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Shibani; Artham, Sravan; Gnanamanickam, Ebenezer

2017-11-01

Flow structures in a turbulent boundary layer larger than an integral length scale (δ), referred to as large-scales, interact with the finer scales in a non-linear manner. By targeting these large-scales and exploiting this non-linear interaction wall shear stress (WSS) reduction of over 10% has been achieved. The plane wall jet (PWJ), a boundary layer which has highly energetic large-scales that become turbulent independent of the near-wall finer scales, is the chosen model flow field. It's unique configuration allows for the independent control of the large-scales through acoustic forcing. Perturbation wavelengths from about 1 δ to 14 δ were considered with a reduction in WSS for all wavelengths considered. This reduction, over a large subset of the wavelengths, scales with both inner and outer variables indicating a mixed scaling to the underlying physics, while also showing dependence on the PWJ global properties. A triple decomposition of the velocity fields shows an increase in coherence due to forcing with a clear organization of the small scale turbulence with respect to the introduced large-scale. The maximum reduction in WSS occurs when the introduced large-scale acts in a manner so as to reduce the turbulent activity in the very near wall region. This material is based upon work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under Award Number FA9550-16-1-0194 monitored by Dr. Douglas Smith.
Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M., II; Yuan, W.; Dong, J.; Zhang, F.; Cai, W.; Li, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from twelve eddy covariance (EC) sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. The EC-LUE model explained 85.4% of the daily observed GPP variations through all of the twelve EC sites, and characterized very well the seasonal changes of GPP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature TA increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and PREC changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.

Prescription-drug-related risk in driving: comparing conventional and lasso shrinkage logistic regressions.

PubMed

Avalos, Marta; Adroher, Nuria Duran; Lagarde, Emmanuel; Thiessard, Frantz; Grandvalet, Yves; Contrand, Benjamin; Orriols, Ludivine

2012-09-01

Large data sets with many variables provide particular challenges when constructing analytic models. Lasso-related methods provide a useful tool, although one that remains unfamiliar to most epidemiologists. We illustrate the application of lasso methods in an analysis of the impact of prescribed drugs on the risk of a road traffic crash, using a large French nationwide database (PLoS Med 2010;7:e1000366). In the original case-control study, the authors analyzed each exposure separately. We use the lasso method, which can simultaneously perform estimation and variable selection in a single model. We compare point estimates and confidence intervals using (1) a separate logistic regression model for each drug with a Bonferroni correction and (2) lasso shrinkage logistic regression analysis. Shrinkage regression had little effect on (bias corrected) point estimates, but led to less conservative results, noticeably for drugs with moderate levels of exposure. Carbamates, carboxamide derivative and fatty acid derivative antiepileptics, drugs used in opioid dependence, and mineral supplements of potassium showed stronger associations. Lasso is a relevant method in the analysis of databases with large number of exposures and can be recommended as an alternative to conventional strategies.
Greenhouse gas aerosols and pollutants over Siberia: the YAK-AEROSIB French Russian Joint International Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Jean-Daniel; Belan, Boris D.; Ancellet, Gérard; Nédélec, Philippe; Arshinov, Mikhail Yu.; Pruvost, Arnaud; Berchet, Antoine; Arzoumanian, Emmanuel; Pison, Isabelle; Ciais, Philippe; Law, Kathy

2014-05-01

Despite the unique scientific value of better knowing atmospheric composition over Siberia, regional observations of the tropospheric composition over this region are still lacking. Large local anthropogenic emissions, strong ecosystem gas exchange across the vast forest expanse, and processes feeding back to global climate such as wetlands CH4 emissions, seabed hydrates destabilization and degrading permafrost make this region particularly crucial to investigate. We aim at addressing this need in the YAK-AEROSIB program by collecting high-precision in-situ measurements of the vertical distribution of CO2, CH4, CO, O3, black carbon and ultrafine particles distribution in the Siberian troposphere, as well as other parameters including aerosol lidar profiles, on a pan-Siberian aircraft transect. Campaigns are performed almost annually since 2006 until now on this regular route, while special campaigns are occasionnally arranged to sample the troposphere elsewere (e.g. Russian Arctic coast). We show the background tropospheric composition obtained from these surveys, the variability and the impact of large-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions from Europe and Asia, as well as the impact of biomass burning plumes both from local wildfires (2012) and from remote sources elsewhere in Asia. Long range transport of anthropogenic emissions is shown to have a discernible impact on O3 distribution, although its lower-tropospheric variability is largely driven by surface deposition. Regional sources and sinks drive the lower troposphere CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Recent efforts aim at better understanding the respective role of CH4 emission processes (including methanogenesis in wetlands and emissions by wildfires) in driving its large scale atmospheric variability over the region. Generally, the YAK AEROSIB provide unique observations over Siberia, documenting both direct impact of regional sources and aged air masses experiencing long range transport toward the high Arctic.
Large Variability of Proanthocyanidin Content and Composition in Sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia)

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Proanthocyanidins (PAs) in sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia Scop.) are of interest to ameliorate the sustainability of livestock production. However, sainfoin forage yield and PA concentrations, as well as their composition, require optimization. Individual plants of 27 sainfoin accessions from four continents were analyzed with LC-ESI-QqQ-MS/MS for PA concentrations and simple phenolic compounds. Large variability existed in PA concentrations (23.0–47.5 mg g–1 leaf dry matter (DM)), share of prodelphinidins (79–96%), and mean degree of polymerization (11–14) among, but also within, accessions. PAs were mainly located in leaves (26.8 mg g–1 DM), whereas stems had less PAs (7.8 mg g–1 DM). Overall, high-yielding plants had lower PA leaf concentrations (R2 = 0.16, P < 0.001) and fewer leaves (R2 = 0.66, P < 0.001). However, the results show that these two trade-offs between yield and bioactive PAs can be overcome. PMID:26551032
Cu Isotopic Composition in Surface Environments and in Biological Systems: A Critical Review

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhuhong; Chen, Jiubin; Zhang, Ting

2017-01-01

Copper (Cu) is a transition metal and an essential micronutrient for organisms, but also one of the most widespread toxic inorganic contaminants at very high content. The research on Cu isotopes has grown rapidly in the last decade. Hitherto, a large number of studies have been published on the theoretical fractionation mechanisms, experimental data and natural variations of Cu isotopes in variable environments and ecosystems. These studies reported a large variation of δ65Cu (−16.49 to +20.04‰) in terrestrial samples and showed that Cu isotopes could be fractionated by various biogeochemical processes to different extent. Several papers have previously reviewed the coupling of Cu and Zn isotope systematics, and we give here a tentative review of the recent publications only on Cu isotopesin variable surface repositories, animals and human beings, with a goal to attract much attention to research on Cu (and other metals) behaviors in the environment and biological systems. PMID:28524094
Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Dollinger, Courtney

2010-01-01

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.
Contributing to Overall Life Satisfaction: Personality Traits Versus Life Satisfaction Variables Revisited—Is Replication Impossible?

PubMed Central

Lachmann, Bernd; Sariyska, Rayna; Kannen, Christopher; Błaszkiewicz, Konrad; Trendafilov, Boris; Andone, Ionut; Eibes, Mark; Markowetz, Alexander; Li, Mei; Kendrick, Keith M.

2017-01-01

Virtually everybody would agree that life satisfaction is of immense importance in everyday life. Thus, it is not surprising that a considerable amount of research using many different methodological approaches has investigated what the best predictors of life satisfaction are. In the present study, we have focused on several key potential influences on life satisfaction including bottom-up and top-down models, cross-cultural effects, and demographic variables. In four independent (large scale) surveys with sample sizes ranging from N = 488 to 40,297, we examined the associations between life satisfaction and various related variables. Our findings demonstrate that prediction of overall life satisfaction works best when including information about specific life satisfaction variables. From this perspective, satisfaction with leisure showed the highest impact on overall life satisfaction in our European samples. Personality was also robustly associated with life satisfaction, but only when life satisfaction variables were not included in the regression model. These findings could be replicated in all four independent samples, but it was also demonstrated that the relevance of life satisfaction variables changed under the influence of cross-cultural effects. PMID:29295529
How resilient are ecosystems in adapting to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2015-04-01

The conclusion often drawn in the media is that ecosystems may perish as a result of climate change. Although climatic trends may indeed lead to shifts in ecosystem composition, the challenge to adjust to climatic variability - even if there is no trend - is larger, particularly in semi-arid or topical climates where climatic variability is large compared to temperate climates. How do ecosystems buffer for climatic variability? The most powerful mechanism is to invest in root zone storage capacity, so as to guarantee access to water and nutrients during period of drought. This investment comes at a cost of having less energy available to invest in growth or formation of fruits. Ecosystems are expected to create sufficient buffer to overcome critical periods of drought, but not more than is necessary to survive or reproduce. Based on this concept, a methodology has been developed to estimate ecosystem root zone storage capacity at local, regional and global scale. These estimates correspond well with estimates made by combining soil and ecosystem information, but are more accurate and more detailed. The methodology shows that ecosystems have intrinsic capacity to adjust to climatic variability and hence have a high resilience to both climatic variability and climatic trends.
X-Ray Variability of BL Lac Objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHardy, Ian

I present an overview of the X-ray temporal and spectral variability of BL Lacs on both short and long timescales. The previously observed behaviour of short (~days) flares superimposed on a relatively steady `quiescent' level is still broadly correct. However, for the brighter BL Lacs, the well sampled lightcurves from the RXTE ASM show that the `quiescent' level also varies considerably on timescales of ~100 days in a manner similar to that seen in Optically Violently Variable Quasars (OVVs) such as 3C279 and 3C273. Possible reasons for this behaviour are discussed. For the large majority of BL Lacs the soft and medium energy X-ray bands are dominated by synchrotron emission and, unlike the case of OVVs, the emission mechanism is not in doubt. Most interest then centres on the structure of the emitting region, and the electron acceleration processes, particularly during outbursts. That structure, and the acceleration processes, can be investigated by consideration of the spectral variability during flares, which is not simple. I review the observations of spectral variability and consider the evidence for and against homogeneous models. I also briefly compare the X-ray spectral variability of BL Lacs with that of OVVs such as 3C273.
Single cell Hi-C reveals cell-to-cell variability in chromosome structure

PubMed Central

Schoenfelder, Stefan; Yaffe, Eitan; Dean, Wendy; Laue, Ernest D.; Tanay, Amos; Fraser, Peter

2013-01-01

Large-scale chromosome structure and spatial nuclear arrangement have been linked to control of gene expression and DNA replication and repair. Genomic techniques based on chromosome conformation capture assess contacts for millions of loci simultaneously, but do so by averaging chromosome conformations from millions of nuclei. Here we introduce single cell Hi-C, combined with genome-wide statistical analysis and structural modeling of single copy X chromosomes, to show that individual chromosomes maintain domain organisation at the megabase scale, but show variable cell-to-cell chromosome territory structures at larger scales. Despite this structural stochasticity, localisation of active gene domains to boundaries of territories is a hallmark of chromosomal conformation. Single cell Hi-C data bridge current gaps between genomics and microscopy studies of chromosomes, demonstrating how modular organisation underlies dynamic chromosome structure, and how this structure is probabilistically linked with genome activity patterns. PMID:24067610
On the Identification of Ozone Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Kane A.; Solomon, Susan; Kinnison, Douglas E.

2018-05-01

As ozone depleting substances decline, stratospheric ozone is displaying signs of healing in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. Here we focus on higher altitudes and the global stratosphere. Two key processes that can influence ozone recovery are evaluated: dynamical variability and solar proton events (SPEs). A nine-member ensemble of free-running simulations indicates that dynamical variability dominates the relatively small ozone recovery signal over 1998-2016 in the subpolar lower stratosphere, particularly near the tropical tropopause. The absence of observed recovery there to date is therefore not unexpected. For the upper stratosphere, high latitudes (50-80°N/S) during autumn and winter show the largest recovery. Large halogen-induced odd oxygen loss there provides a fingerprint of seasonal sensitivity to chlorine trends. However, we show that SPEs also have a profound effect on ozone trends within this region since 2000. Thus, accounting for SPEs is important for detection of recovery in the upper stratosphere.
Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilizing effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects, respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilizing effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenization) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales. PMID:26918536
Trend Extraction in Functional Data of Amplitudes of R and T Waves in Exercise Electrocardiogram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarota, Camillo; Curione, Mario

The amplitudes of R and T waves of the electrocardiogram (ECG) recorded during the exercise test show both large inter- and intra-individual variability in response to stress. We analyze a dataset of 65 normal subjects undergoing ambulatory test. We model the dataset of R and T series in the framework of functional data, assuming that the individual series are realizations of a non-stationary process, centered at the population trend. We test the time variability of this trend computing a simultaneous confidence band and the zero crossing of its derivative. The analysis shows that the amplitudes of the R and T waves have opposite responses to stress, consisting respectively in a bump and a dip at the early recovery stage. Our findings support the existence of a relationship between R and T wave amplitudes and respectively diastolic and systolic ventricular volumes.
[Analysis of Foetal Heart Rate Data using Complex Software: Comparison of Recurrence Plot of Foetal Heart Rate with the Course of Pregnancy -].

PubMed

Jörn, H; Morgenstern, B; Wassenberg, B; Rath, W

2004-08-01

Is it useful to further analyse foetal heart rate to improve the prediction of pregnancy complications? The analysis of the foetal heart rate is usually based on the variability of the heart rate, i. e. the more variable the heart rate presents - except a decrease - the better the condition of the foetus is. The same concept is applied in our own analysis which differs only in the presentation of the data. We analysed 25 non-stress-tests from unselected third trimester pregnancies using sophisticated software. The recurrence plot (RP) is able to rearrange data from foetal heart rate monitoring in order to make the heart rate variability visible. We developed criteria for a normal and an abnormal test result describing the structure of the diagram to predict an uneventful and a high-risk pregnancy, respectively. 11 out of 11 patients with uneventful course and outcome of pregnancy showed a coarse and blurred RP pattern. 12 out of 14 (86 %) patients developing either intrauterine growth retardation or preeclampsia and requiring caesarean section because of foetal heart rate abnormalities showed a fine and clear RP pattern. Our preliminary results show that it makes sense to further evaluate foetal heart rate variability in order to predict pregnancy complications. Computer programs including the algorithms needed (calculation of the recurrence plot) are not expensive and easy to handle. A widespread use of these programs represents the basis requirement for large controlled clinical trials.
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Throughfall Amounts and Solutes in a Tropical Montane Forest - Comparisons with Findings From Lowland Rain Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, A.

2007-05-01

The diverse tree species composition, irregular shaped tree crowns and a multi-layered forest structure affect the redistribution of rainfall in lower montane rain forests. In addition, abundant epiphyte biomass and associated canopy humus influence spatial patterns of throughfall. The spatial variability of throughfall amounts controls spatial patterns of solute concentrations and deposition. Moreover, the living and dead biomass interacts with the rainwater during the passage through the canopy and creates a chemical variability of its own. Since spatial and temporal patterns are intimately linked, the analysis of temporal solute concentration dynamics is an important step to understand the emerging spatial patterns. I hypothesized that: (1) the spatial variability of volumes and chemical composition of throughfall is particularly high compared with other forests because of the high biodiversity and epiphytism, (2) the temporal stability of the spatial pattern is high because of stable structures in the canopy (e.g. large epiphytes) that show only minor changes during the short term observation period, and (3) the element concentrations decrease with increasing rainfall because of exhausting element pools in the canopy. The study area at 1950 m above sea level is located in the south Ecuadorian Andes far away from anthropogenic emission sources and marine influences. Rain and throughfall were collected from August to October 2005 on an event and within-event basis for five precipitation periods and analyzed for pH, K, Na, Ca, Mg, NH4+, Cl-, NO3-, PO43-, TN, TP and TOC. Throughfall amounts and most of the solutes showed a high spatial variability, thereby the variability of H+, K, Ca, Mg, Cl- and NO3- exceeded those from a Brazilian tropical rain forest. The temporal persistence of the spatial patterns was high for throughfall amounts and varied depending on the solute. Highly persistent time stability patterns were detected for K, Mg and TOC concentrations. Time stability patterns of solute deposition were somewhat weaker than for concentrations for most of the solutes. Epiphytes strongly affected time stability patterns in that collectors situated below thick moss mats or arboreal bromeliads were in large part responsible for the extreme persistence with low throughfall amounts and high ion concentrations (H+ showed low concentrations). Rainfall solute concentrations were low compared with a variety of other tropical lowland and montane forest sites and showed a small temporal variability during the study period for both between and within-event dynamics, respectively. Throughfall solute concentrations were more within the range when compared with other sites and showed highly variable within-event dynamics. For most of the solutes, within-event concentrations did not reach low, constant concentrations in later event stages, rather concentrations fluctuated (e.g. Cl-) or increased (e.g. K and TOC). The within-event throughfall solute concentration dynamics in this lower montane rain forest contrast to recent observations from lowland tropical rain forests in Panama and Brazil. The observed within-event patterns are attributed (1) to the influence of epiphytes and associated canopy humus, and (2) to low rainfall intensities.
Highly variable recurrence of tsunamis in the 7,400 years before the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Rubin, C. M.; Sieh, K.; Jessica, P.; Daly, P.; Ismail, N.; Parnell, A. C.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here, we identify coastal caves as a new depositional environment for reconstructing tsunami records and present a 5,000 year record of continuous tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Sumatra, Indonesia which shows the irregular recurrence of 11 tsunamis between 7,400 and 2,900 years BP. The data demonstrates that the 2004 tsunami was just the latest in a sequence of devastating tsunamis stretching back to at least the early Holocene and suggests a high likelihood for future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. The sedimentary record in the cave shows that ruptures of the Sunda megathrust vary between large (which generated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and smaller slip failures. The chronology of events suggests the recurrence of multiple smaller tsunamis within relatively short time periods, interrupted by long periods of strain accumulation followed by giant tsunamis. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. The very long dormant period suggests that the Sunda megathrust is capable of accumulating large slip deficits between earthquakes. Such a high slip rupture would produce a substantially larger earthquake than the 2004 event. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda Megathrust ruptures as large as that of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The remarkable variability of recurrence suggests that regional hazard mitigation plans should be based upon the high likelihood of future destructive tsunami demonstrated by the cave record and other paleotsunami sites, rather than estimates of recurrence intervals.
Genome Data Exploration Using Correspondence Analysis

PubMed Central

Tekaia, Fredj

2016-01-01

Recent developments of sequencing technologies that allow the production of massive amounts of genomic and genotyping data have highlighted the need for synthetic data representation and pattern recognition methods that can mine and help discovering biologically meaningful knowledge included in such large data sets. Correspondence analysis (CA) is an exploratory descriptive method designed to analyze two-way data tables, including some measure of association between rows and columns. It constructs linear combinations of variables, known as factors. CA has been used for decades to study high-dimensional data, and remarkable inferences from large data tables were obtained by reducing the dimensionality to a few orthogonal factors that correspond to the largest amount of variability in the data. Herein, I review CA and highlight its use by considering examples in handling high-dimensional data that can be constructed from genomic and genetic studies. Examples in amino acid compositions of large sets of species (viruses, phages, yeast, and fungi) as well as an example related to pairwise shared orthologs in a set of yeast and fungal species, as obtained from their proteome comparisons, are considered. For the first time, results show striking segregations between yeasts and fungi as well as between viruses and phages. Distributions obtained from shared orthologs show clusters of yeast and fungal species corresponding to their phylogenetic relationships. A direct comparison with the principal component analysis method is discussed using a recently published example of genotyping data related to newly discovered traces of an ancient hominid that was compared to modern human populations in the search for ancestral similarities. CA offers more detailed results highlighting links between modern humans and the ancient hominid and their characterizations. Compared to the popular principal component analysis method, CA allows easier and more effective interpretation of results, particularly by the ability of relating individual patterns with their corresponding characteristic variables. PMID:27279736
The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo

2017-07-01

Recent studies have shown considerable changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) since the early 1980s, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. In this study, the relative contributions of external climate forcing and internal climate variability to the recent ET changes are examined. Three datasets of global terrestrial ET and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean ET are analyzed, respectively, to quantify the apparent and externally-forced ET changes, while the unforced ET variations are estimated as the apparent ET minus the forced component. Large discrepancies of the ET estimates, in terms of their trend, variability, and temperature- and precipitation-dependence, are found among the three datasets. Results show that the forced global-mean ET exhibits an upward trend of 0.08 mm day-1 century-1 from 1982 to 2010. The forced ET also contains considerable multi-year to decadal variations during the latter half of the 20th century that are caused by volcanic aerosols. The spatial patterns and interannual variations of the forced ET are more closely linked to precipitation than temperature. After removing the forced component, the global-mean ET shows a trend ranging from -0.07 to 0.06 mm day-1 century-1 during 1982-2010 with varying spatial patterns among the three datasets. Furthermore, linkages between the unforced ET and internal climate modes are examined. Variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are found to be consistently correlated with ET over many land areas among the ET datasets. The results suggest that there are large uncertainties in our current estimates of global terrestrial ET for the recent decades, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol external forcings account for a large part of the apparent trend in global-mean terrestrial ET since 1982, but Pacific SST and other internal climate variability dominate recent ET variations and changes over most regions.
Fine-scale application of WRF-CAM5 during a dust storm episode over East Asia: Sensitivity to grid resolutions and aerosol activation parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kai; Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Xin; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby; Zheng, Bo; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2018-03-01

An advanced online-coupled meteorology and chemistry model WRF-CAM5 has been applied to East Asia using triple-nested domains at different grid resolutions (i.e., 36-, 12-, and 4-km) to simulate a severe dust storm period in spring 2010. Analyses are performed to evaluate the model performance and investigate model sensitivity to different horizontal grid sizes and aerosol activation parameterizations and to examine aerosol-cloud interactions and their impacts on the air quality. A comprehensive model evaluation of the baseline simulations using the default Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (AG) aerosol activation scheme shows that the model can well predict major meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature (T2), water vapor mixing ratio (Q2), 10-m wind speed (WS10) and wind direction (WD10), and shortwave and longwave radiation across different resolutions with domain-average normalized mean biases typically within ±15%. The baseline simulations also show moderate biases for precipitation and moderate-to-large underpredictions for other major variables associated with aerosol-cloud interactions such as cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud optical thickness (COT), and cloud liquid water path (LWP) due to uncertainties or limitations in the aerosol-cloud treatments. The model performance is sensitive to grid resolutions, especially for surface meteorological variables such as T2, Q2, WS10, and WD10, with the performance generally improving at finer grid resolutions for those variables. Comparison of the sensitivity simulations with an alternative (i.e., the Fountoukis and Nenes (FN) series scheme) and the default (i.e., AG scheme) aerosol activation scheme shows that the former predicts larger values for cloud variables such as CDNC and COT across all grid resolutions and improves the overall domain-average model performance for many cloud/radiation variables and precipitation. Sensitivity simulations using the FN series scheme also have large impacts on radiations, T2, precipitation, and air quality (e.g., decreasing O3) through complex aerosol-radiation-cloud-chemistry feedbacks. The inclusion of adsorptive activation of dust particles in the FN series scheme has similar impacts on the meteorology and air quality but to lesser extent as compared to differences between the FN series and AG schemes. Compared to the overall differences between the FN series and AG schemes, impacts of adsorptive activation of dust particles can contribute significantly to the increase of total CDNC (∼45%) during dust storm events and indicate their importance in modulating regional climate over East Asia.
Impact of Subsurface Temperature Variability on Meteorological Variability: An AGCM Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanama, S. P.; Koster, R. D.; Liu, P.

2006-05-01

Anomalous atmospheric conditions can lead to surface temperature anomalies, which in turn can lead to temperature anomalies deep in the soil. The deep soil temperature (and the associated ground heat content) has significant memory -- the dissipation of a temperature anomaly may take weeks to months -- and thus deep soil temperature may contribute to the low frequency variability of energy and water variables elsewhere in the system. The memory may even provide some skill to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. This study uses two long-term AGCM experiments to isolate the contribution of deep soil temperature variability to variability elsewhere in the climate system. The first experiment consists of a standard ensemble of AMIP-type simulations, simulations in which the deep soil temperature variable is allowed to interact with the rest of the system. In the second experiment, the coupling of the deep soil temperature to the rest of the climate system is disabled -- at each grid cell, the local climatological seasonal cycle of deep soil temperature (as determined from the first experiment) is prescribed. By comparing the variability of various atmospheric quantities as generated in the two experiments, we isolate the contribution of interactive deep soil temperature to that variability. The results show that interactive deep soil temperature contributes significantly to surface temperature variability. Interactive deep soil temperature, however, reduces the variability of the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation), largely because it allows for a negative feedback between evaporation and temperature.
IUEAGN: A database of ultraviolet spectra of active galactic nuclei

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pike, G.; Edelson, R.; Shull, J. M.; Saken, J.

1993-01-01

In 13 years of operation, IUE has gathered approximately 5000 spectra of almost 600 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). In order to undertake AGN studies which require large amounts of data, we are consistently reducing this entire archive and creating a homogeneous, easy-to-use database. First, the spectra are extracted using the Optimal extraction algorithm. Continuum fluxes are then measured across predefined bands, and line fluxes are measured with a multi-component fit. These results, along with source information such as redshifts and positions, are placed in the IUEAGN relational database. Analysis algorithms, statistical tests, and plotting packages run within the structure, and this flexible database can accommodate future data when they are released. This archival approach has already been used to survey line and continuum variability in six bright Seyfert 1s and rapid continuum variability in 14 blazars. Among the results that could only be obtained using a large archival study is evidence that blazars show a positive correlation between degree of variability and apparent luminosity, while Seyfert 1s show an anti-correlation. This suggests that beaming dominates the ultraviolet properties for blazars, while thermal emission from an accretion disk dominates for Seyfert 1s. Our future plans include a survey of line ratios in Seyfert 1s, to be fitted with photoionization models to test the models and determine the range of temperatures, densities and ionization parameters. We will also include data from IRAS, Einstein, EXOSAT, and ground-based telescopes to measure multi-wavelength correlations and broadband spectral energy distributions.

Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

2010-12-01

Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.
Ruling out Legionella in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Haubitz, Sebastian; Hitz, Fabienne; Graedel, Lena; Batschwaroff, Marcus; Wiemken, Timothy Lee; Peyrani, Paula; Ramirez, Julio A; Fux, Christoph Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2014-10-01

Assessing the likelihood for Legionella sp. in community-acquired pneumonia is important because of differences in treatment regimens. Currently used antigen tests and culture have limited sensitivity with important time delays, making empirical broad-spectrum coverage necessary. Therefore, a score with 6 variables recently has been proposed. We sought to validate these parameters in an independent cohort. We analyzed adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia from a large multinational database (Community Acquired Pneumonia Organization) who were treated between 2001 and 2012 with more than 4 of the 6 prespecified clinical variables available. Association and discrimination were assessed using logistic regression analysis and area under the curve (AUC). Of 1939 included patients, the infectious cause was known in 594 (28.9%), including Streptococcus pneumoniae in 264 (13.6%) and Legionella sp. in 37 (1.9%). The proposed clinical predictors fever, cough, hyponatremia, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, and platelet count were all associated or tended to be associated with Legionella cause. A logistic regression analysis including all these predictors showed excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.94). The original dichotomized score showed good discrimination (AUC, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.81) and a high negative predictive value of 99% for patients with less than 2 parameters present. With the use of a large independent patient sample from an international database, this analysis validates previously proposed clinical variables to accurately rule out Legionella sp., which may help to optimize initial empiric therapy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Study of InGaAs-based modulation doped field effect transistor structures using variable-angle spectroscopic ellipsometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alterovitz, S. A.; Sieg, R. M.; Yao, H. D.; Snyder, P. G.; Woollam, J. A.; Pamulapati, J.; Bhattacharya, P. K.; Sekula-Moise, P. A.

1991-01-01

Variable-angle spectroscopic ellipsometry was used to estimate the thicknesses of all layers within the optical penetration depth of InGaAs-based modulation doped field effect transistor structures. Strained and unstrained InGaAs channels were made by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) on InP substrates and by metal-organic chemical vapor deposition on GaAs substrates. In most cases, ellipsometrically determined thicknesses were within 10% of the growth-calibration results. The MBE-made InGaAs strained layers showed large strain effects, indicating a probable shift in the critical points of their dielectric function toward the InP lattice-matched concentration.
Emergence of universal scaling in financial markets from mean-field dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikram, S. V.; Sinha, Sitabhra

2011-01-01

Collective phenomena with universal properties have been observed in many complex systems with a large number of components. Here we present a microscopic model of the emergence of scaling behavior in such systems, where the interaction dynamics between individual components is mediated by a global variable making the mean-field description exact. Using the example of financial markets, we show that asset price can be such a global variable with the critical role of coordinating the actions of agents who are otherwise independent. The resulting model accurately reproduces empirical properties such as the universal scaling of the price fluctuation and volume distributions, long-range correlations in volatility, and multiscaling.
The discrete hungry Lotka Volterra system and a new algorithm for computing matrix eigenvalues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Akiko; Ishiwata, Emiko; Iwasaki, Masashi; Nakamura, Yoshimasa

2009-01-01

The discrete hungry Lotka-Volterra (dhLV) system is a generalization of the discrete Lotka-Volterra (dLV) system which stands for a prey-predator model in mathematical biology. In this paper, we show that (1) some invariants exist which are expressed by dhLV variables and are independent from the discrete time and (2) a dhLV variable converges to some positive constant or zero as the discrete time becomes sufficiently large. Some characteristic polynomial is then factorized with the help of the dhLV system. The asymptotic behaviour of the dhLV system enables us to design an algorithm for computing complex eigenvalues of a certain band matrix.
An analysis of the first two years of GASP data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdeman, J. D.; Nastrom, G. D.; Falconer, P. D.

1977-01-01

Distributions of mean ozone levels from the first two years of data from the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) show spatial and temporal variations in agreement with previous measurements. The standard deviations of these distributions reflect the large natural variability of ozone levels in the altitude range of the GASP measurements. Monthly mean levels of ozone below the tropopause show an annual cycle with a spring maximum which is believed to result from transport from the stratosphere. Correlations of ozone with independent meteorological parameters, and meteorological parameters obtained by the GASP systems show that this transport occurs primarily through cyclogenesis at mid-latitudes.
Effects of temporal averaging on short-term irradiance variability under mixed sky conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Gerald M.; Monahan, Adam H.

2018-05-01

Characterizations of short-term variability in solar radiation are required to successfully integrate large numbers of photovoltaic power systems into the electrical grid. Previous studies have used ground-based irradiance observations with a range of different temporal resolutions and a systematic analysis of the effects of temporal averaging on the representation of variability is lacking. Using high-resolution surface irradiance data with original temporal resolutions between 0.01 and 1 s from six different locations in the Northern Hemisphere, we characterize the changes in representation of temporal variability resulting from time averaging. In this analysis, we condition all data to states of mixed skies, which are the most potentially problematic in terms of local PV power volatility. Statistics of clear-sky index k* and its increments Δk*τ (i.e., normalized surface irradiance and changes therein over specified intervals of time) are considered separately. Our results indicate that a temporal averaging time scale of around 1 s marks a transition in representing single-point irradiance variability, such that longer averages result in substantial underestimates of variability. Higher-resolution data increase the complexity of data management and quality control without appreciably improving the representation of variability. The results do not show any substantial discrepancies between locations or seasons.
Constraining land carbon cycle process understanding with observations of atmospheric CO2 variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collatz, G. J.; Kawa, S. R.; Liu, Y.; Zeng, F.; Ivanoff, A.

2013-12-01

We evaluate our understanding of the land biospheric carbon cycle by benchmarking a model and its variants to atmospheric CO2 observations and to an atmospheric CO2 inversion. Though the seasonal cycle in CO2 observations is well simulated by the model (RMSE/standard deviation of observations <0.5 at most sites north of 15N and <1 for Southern Hemisphere sites) different model setups suggest that the CO2 seasonal cycle provides some constraint on gross photosynthesis, respiration, and fire fluxes revealed in the amplitude and phase at northern latitude sites. CarbonTracker inversions (CT) and model show similar phasing of the seasonal fluxes but agreement in the amplitude varies by region. We also evaluate interannual variability (IAV) in the measured atmospheric CO2 which, in contrast to the seasonal cycle, is not well represented by the model. We estimate the contributions of biospheric and fire fluxes, and atmospheric transport variability to explaining observed variability in measured CO2. Comparisons with CT show that modeled IAV has some correspondence to the inversion results >40N though fluxes match poorly at regional to continental scales. Regional and global fire emissions are strongly correlated with variability observed at northern flask sample sites and in the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate though in the latter case fire emissions anomalies are not large enough to account fully for the observed variability. We discuss remaining unexplained variability in CO2 observations in terms of the representation of fluxes by the model. This work also demonstrates the limitations of the current network of CO2 observations and the potential of new denser surface measurements and space based column measurements for constraining carbon cycle processes in models.
Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-05-01

Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB).In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.
A multilevel perspective to explain recycling behaviour in communities.

PubMed

Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo; Cuadrado, Esther; Luque, Bárbara; Pereira, Cícero R

2015-08-15

Previous research on the motivation for environmentally responsible behaviour has focused mainly on individual variables, rather than organizational or collective variables. Therefore, the results of those studies are hardly applicable to environmental management. This study considers individual, collective, and organizational variables together that contribute to the management of environmental waste. The main aim is to identify, through the development of a multilevel model, those predictive variables of recycling behaviour that help organizations to increase the recycling rates in their communities. Individual (age, gender, educational level, self-efficacy with respect to residential recycling, individual recycling behaviour), organizational (satisfaction with the quality of the service provided by a recycling company), and collective (community recycling rates, number of inhabitants, community efficacy beliefs) motivational factors relevant to recycling behaviour were analysed. A sample of 1501 residents from 55 localities was surveyed. The results of multilevel analyses indicated that there was significant variability within and between localities. Interactions between variables at the level of the individual (e.g. satisfaction with service quality) and variables at the level of the collective (e.g. community efficacy) predicted recycling behaviour in localities with low and high community recycling rates and large and small populations. The interactions showed that the relationship between self-efficacy and recycling is stronger in localities with weak community efficacy beliefs than in communities with strong beliefs. The findings show that the relationship between satisfaction with service quality and recycling behaviour is stronger in localities with strong community efficacy beliefs than in communities with weaker beliefs and a smaller population. The results are discussed accordingly in relation to theory and possible contribution to waste management. Those findings may be incorporated in national and international environmental policies in order to promote environmentally responsible behaviour in citizenship. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Influence of coal-based thermal power plants on the spatial-temporal variability of tropospheric NO2 column over India.

PubMed

Prasad, Anup K; Singh, Ramesh P; Kafatos, Menas

2012-04-01

The oxides of nitrogen--NO(x) (NO and NO(2))--are an important constituent of the troposphere. The availability of relatively higher spatial (0.25° grid) and temporal (daily) resolution data from ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) onboard Aura helps us to better differentiate between the point sources such as thermal power plants from large cities and rural areas compared to previous sensors. The annual and seasonal (summer and winter) distributions shows very high mean tropospheric NO(2) in specific pockets over India especially over the Indo-Gangetic plains (up to 14.2 × 10(15) molecules/cm(2)). These pockets correspond with the known locations of major thermal power plants. The tropospheric NO(2) over India show a large seasonal variability that is also observed in the ground NO(2) data. The multiple regression analysis show that the influence of a unit of power plant (in gigawatts) over tropospheric NO(2) (×10(15) molecules/cm(2)) is around ten times compared to a unit of population (in millions) over India. The OMI data show that the NO(2) increases by 0.794 ± 0.12 (×10(15) molecules/cm(2); annual) per GW compared to a previous estimate of 0.014 (×10(15) molecules/cm(2)) over India. The increase of tropospheric NO(2) per gigawatt is found to be 1.088 ± 0.18, 0.898 ± 0.14, and 0.395 ± 0.13 (×10(15) molecules/cm(2)) during winter, summer, and monsoon seasons, respectively. The strong seasonal variation is attributed to the enhancement or suppression of NO(2) due to various controlling factors which is discussed here. The recent increasing trend (2005-2007) over rural thermal power plants pockets like Agori and Korba is due to recent large capacity additions in these regions.
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

fold cross -validation would take about ten time as long, and MARS is not all that fast to begin with. Friedman has a number of examples showing...standardized mean squared error of prediction (MSEP), the generalized cross validation (GCV), and the number of selected terms (TERMS). In accordance with...and mi= 10 case were almost exclusively spurious cross product terms and terms involving the nuisance variables x6 through xlo. This large number of
Optical properties of boreal region biomass burning aerosols in central Alaska and seasonal variation of aerosol optical depth at an Arctic coastal site

Treesearch

T.F. Eck; B.N. Holben; J.S. Reid; A. Sinyuk; E.J. Hyer; N.T. O' Neill; G.E. Shaw; J.R. Vande Castle; F.S. Chapin; O. Dubovik; A. Smirnov; E. Vermote; J.S. Schafer; D. Giles; I. Slutsker; M. Sorokine; W.W. Newcomb

2009-01-01

Long-term monitoring of aerosol optical properties at a boreal forest AERONET site in interior Alaska was performed from 1994 through 2008 (excluding winter), Large interannual variability was observed, with some years showing near background aerosol optical depth (AOD) levels while 2004 and 2005 had August monthly means similar in magnitude to peak months at major...
Metacommunity ecology meets biogeography: effects of geographical region, spatial dynamics and environmental filtering on community structure in aquatic organisms.

PubMed

Heino, Jani; Soininen, Janne; Alahuhta, Janne; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Virtanen, Risto

2017-01-01

Metacommunity patterns and underlying processes in aquatic organisms have typically been studied within a drainage basin. We examined variation in the composition of six freshwater organismal groups across various drainage basins in Finland. We first modelled spatial structures within each drainage basin using Moran eigenvector maps. Second, we partitioned variation in community structure among three groups of predictors using constrained ordination: (1) local environmental variables, (2) spatial variables, and (3) dummy variable drainage basin identity. Third, we examined turnover and nestedness components of multiple-site beta diversity, and tested the best fit patterns of our datasets using the "elements of metacommunity structure" analysis. Our results showed that basin identity and local environmental variables were significant predictors of community structure, whereas within-basin spatial effects were typically negligible. In half of the organismal groups (diatoms, bryophytes, zooplankton), basin identity was a slightly better predictor of community structure than local environmental variables, whereas the opposite was true for the remaining three organismal groups (insects, macrophytes, fish). Both pure basin and local environmental fractions were, however, significant after accounting for the effects of the other predictor variable sets. All organismal groups exhibited high levels of beta diversity, which was mostly attributable to the turnover component. Our results showed consistent Clementsian-type metacommunity structures, suggesting that subgroups of species responded similarly to environmental factors or drainage basin limits. We conclude that aquatic communities across large scales are mostly determined by environmental and basin effects, which leads to high beta diversity and prevalence of Clementsian community types.
Understanding the Global Variability in Thermospheric Nitric Oxide Flux Using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, Sierra; Knipp, Delores J.; Matsuo, Tomoko; Mlynczak, Martin; Hunt, Linda

2018-05-01

We present the first-ever global assessment of thermospheric nitric oxide infrared radiative flux (NOF) variability. NOF (W/m2) from 100- to 250-km altitude is extracted from 13.7 years of data from the TIMED satellite, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, and decomposed into four empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and their amplitudes. We determine the strongest modes of NOF variability in the data set and develop a compact model of NOF. The first four EOFs account for 83% of the variability in the data. We illustrate the NOF model and discuss the geophysical associations of the EOFs. The first EOF represents 69% of the total variance and correlates strongly with Kp and solar shortwave flux, suggesting that geomagnetic activity and solar weather account for a large portion of NOF variability. EOF 2 shows annual and seasonal variations, possibly due to annual and seasonal thermospheric composition and temperature changes and may represent the chemical breathing mode of NOF. EOF 3 shows annual variations and correlates with solar energetic particle events and X-flares. EOF 3 may represent winter time solar energetic particle event-enhanced diurnal tide effects. EOF 4 suggests a meridional transport mechanism at the predawn and postdusk equator after strong storms. The EOF uncertainty is verified using cross-validation analysis. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variabilities of NOF using eigenmodes will increase the understanding of how upper atmospheric nitric oxide cooling behaves and could increase the accuracy of future space weather and climate models.
Satellite microwave observations of the interannual variability of snowmelt on sea ice in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willmes, S.; Haas, C.; Nicolaus, M.; Bareiss, J.

2009-04-01

Snowmelt processes on Antarctic sea ice are examined. We present a simple snowmelt indicator based on diurnal brightness temperature variations from microwave satellite data. The method is validated through extensive field data from the western Weddell Sea and lends itself to the investigation of interannual and spatial variations of the typical snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice. We use in situ measurements of physical snow properties to show that despite the absence of strong melting, the summer period is distinct from all other seasons with enhanced diurnal variations of snow wetness. A microwave emission model reveals that repeated thawing and refreezing causes the typical microwave emissivity signatures that are found on perennial Antarctic sea ice during summer. The proposed melt indicator accounts for the characteristic phenomenological stages of snowmelt in the Southern Ocean and detects the onset of diurnal snow wetting. An algorithm is presented to map large-scale snowmelt onset, based on satellite data from the period between 1988 and 2006. The results indicate strong meridional gradients of snowmelt onset with the Weddell, Amundsen and Ross Seas showing earliest (beginning of October) and most frequent snowmelt. Moreover, a distinct interannual variability of melt onset dates and large areas of first-year ice where no diurnal freeze-thawing occurs at the surface are determined.
Satellite microwave observations of the interannual variability of snowmelt on sea ice in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willmes, Sascha; Haas, Christian; Nicolaus, Marcel; Bareiss, JöRg

2009-03-01

Snowmelt processes on Antarctic sea ice are examined. We present a simple snowmelt indicator based on diurnal brightness temperature variations from microwave satellite data. The method is validated through extensive field data from the western Weddell Sea and lends itself to the investigation of interannual and spatial variations of the typical snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice. We use in-situ measurements of physical snow properties to show that despite the absence of strong melting, the summer period is distinct from all other seasons with enhanced diurnal variations of snow wetness. A microwave emission model reveals that repeated thawing and refreezing cause the typical microwave emissivity signatures that are found on perennial Antarctic sea ice during summer. The proposed melt indicator accounts for the characteristic phenomenological stages of snowmelt in the Southern Ocean and detects the onset of diurnal snow wetting. An algorithm is presented to map large-scale snowmelt onset based on satellite data from the period between 1988 and 2006. The results indicate strong meridional gradients of snowmelt onset with the Weddell, Amundsen, and Ross Seas showing earliest (beginning of October) and most frequent snowmelt. Moreover, a distinct interannual variability of melt onset dates and large areas of first-year ice where no diurnal freeze thawing occurs at the surface are determined.
How Far Is Quasar UV/Optical Variability from a Damped Random Walk at Low Frequency?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo Hengxiao; Wang Junxian; Cai Zhenyi

Studies have shown that UV/optical light curves of quasars can be described using the prevalent damped random walk (DRW) model, also known as the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. A white noise power spectral density (PSD) is expected at low frequency in this model; however, a direct observational constraint to the low-frequency PSD slope is difficult due to the limited lengths of the light curves available. Meanwhile, quasars show scatter in their DRW parameters that is too large to be attributed to uncertainties in the measurements and dependence on the variation of known physical factors. In this work we present simulations showing that,more » if the low-frequency PSD deviates from the DRW, the red noise leakage can naturally produce large scatter in the variation parameters measured from simulated light curves. The steeper the low-frequency PSD slope, the larger scatter we expect. Based on observations of SDSS Stripe 82 quasars, we find that the low-frequency PSD slope should be no steeper than −1.3. The actual slope could be flatter, which consequently requires that the quasar variabilities should be influenced by other unknown factors. We speculate that the magnetic field and/or metallicity could be such additional factors.« less
Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

PubMed

Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

2016-09-01

During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.
Indications of stellar prominence oscillations on fast rotating stars: the cases of HK Aqr and PZ Tel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitzinger, M.; Odert, P.; Zaqarashvili, T. V.; Greimel, R.; Hanslmeier, A.; Lammer, H.

2016-11-01

We present the analysis of six nights of spectroscopic monitoring of two young and fast rotating late-type stars, namely the dMe star HK Aqr and the dG/dK star PZ Tel. On both stars, we detect absorption features reminiscent of signatures of corotating cool clouds or prominences visible in Hα. Several prominences on HK Aqr show periodic variability in the prominence tracks which follow a sinusoidal motion (indication of prominence oscillations). On PZ Tel, we could not find any periodic variability in the prominence tracks. By fitting sinusoidal functions to the prominence tracks, we derive amplitudes and periods which are similar to those of large-amplitude oscillations seen in solar prominences. In one specific event, we also derive a periodic variation of the prominence track in the Hβ spectral line which shows an anti-phase variation with the one derived for the Hα spectral line. Using these parameters and estimated mass density of a prominence on HK Aqr, we derive a minimum magnetic field strength of ˜2 G. The relatively low strength of the magnetic field is explained by the large height of this stellar prominence (≥ 0.67 stellar radii above the surface).

Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.
Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavatta, S.; Kay, S.; Saux-Picart, S.; Butenschön, M.; Allen, J. I.

2016-03-01

This paper presents the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill, confidence, and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model simulation of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large data set of in situ observations for 10 ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, and oxygen), ˜0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, and silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (˜0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 325,000 and 365,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were vulnerable to oxygen deficiency potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36 and 46 Tg C yr-1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output data set can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.
Climate, Water, and Human Health: Large Scale Hydroclimatic Controls in Forecasting Cholera Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2009-12-01

Despite ravaging the continents through seven global pandemics in past centuries, the seasonal and interannual variability of cholera outbreaks remain a mystery. Previous studies have focused on the role of various environmental and climatic factors, but provided little or no predictive capability. Recent findings suggest a more prominent role of large scale hydroclimatic extremes - droughts and floods - and attempt to explain the seasonality and the unique dual cholera peaks in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia. We investigate the seasonal and interannual nature of cholera epidemiology in three geographically distinct locations within the region to identify the larger scale hydroclimatic controls that can set the ecological and environmental ‘stage’ for outbreaks and have significant memory on a seasonal scale. Here we show that two distinctly different, pre and post monsoon, cholera transmission mechanisms related to large scale climatic controls prevail in the region. An implication of our findings is that extreme climatic events such as prolonged droughts, record floods, and major cyclones may cause major disruption in the ecosystem and trigger large epidemics. We postulate that a quantitative understanding of the large-scale hydroclimatic controls and dominant processes with significant system memory will form the basis for forecasting such epidemic outbreaks. A multivariate regression method using these predictor variables to develop probabilistic forecasts of cholera outbreaks will be explored. Forecasts from such a system with a seasonal lead-time are likely to have measurable impact on early cholera detection and prevention efforts in endemic regions.
Drivers of inter-year variability of plant production and decomposers across contrasting island ecosystems.

PubMed

Wardle, David A; Jonsson, Micael; Kalela-Brundin, Maarit; Lagerström, Anna; Bardgett, Richard D; Yeates, Gregor W; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte

2012-03-01

Despite the likely importance of inter-year dynamics of plant production and consumer biota for driving community- and ecosystem-level processes, very few studies have explored how and why these dynamics vary across contrasting ecosystems. We utilized a well-characterized system of 30 lake islands in the boreal forest zone of northern Sweden across which soil fertility and productivity vary considerably, with larger islands being more fertile and productive than smaller ones. In this system we assessed the inter-year dynamics of several measures of plant production and the soil microbial community (primary consumers in the decomposer food web) for each of nine years, and soil microfaunal groups (secondary and tertiary consumers) for each of six of those years. We found that, for measures of plant production and each of the three consumer trophic levels, inter-year dynamics were strongly affected by island size. Further, many variables were strongly affected by island size (and thus bottom-up regulation by soil fertility and resources) in some years, but not in other years, most likely due to inter-year variation in climatic conditions. For each of the plant and microbial variables for which we had nine years of data, we also determined the inter-year coefficient of variation (CV), an inverse measure of stability. We found that CVs of some measures of plant productivity were greater on large islands, whereas those of other measures were greater on smaller islands; CVs of microbial variables were unresponsive to island size. We also found that the effects of island size on the temporal dynamics of some variables were related to inter-year variability of macroclimatic variables. As such, our results show that the inter-year dynamics of both plant productivity and decomposer biota across each of three trophic levels, as well as the inter-year stability of plant productivity, differ greatly across contrasting ecosystems, with potentially important but largely overlooked implications for community and ecosystem processes.
Small-scale variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry, Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada.

PubMed

Ulanowski, T A; Branfireun, B A

2013-06-01

The Hudson Bay Lowland (HBL) of northern Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec, Canada is the second largest contiguous peatland complex in the world, currently containing more than half of Canada's soil carbon. Recent concerns about the ecohydrological impacts to these large northern peatlands resulting from climate change and resource extraction have catalyzed a resurgence in scientific research into this ecologically important region. However, the sheer size, heterogeneity and elaborate landscape arrangements of this ecosystem raise important questions concerning representative sampling of environmental media for chemical or physical characterization. To begin to quantify such variability, this study assessed the small-scale spatial (1m) and short temporal (21 day) variability of surface pore-water biogeochemistry (pH, dissolved organic carbon, and major ions) in a Sphagnum spp.-dominated, ombrotrophic raised bog, and a Carex spp.-dominated intermediate fen in the HBL. In general, pore-water pH and concentrations of dissolved solutes were similar to previously reported literature values from this region. However, systematic sampling revealed consistent statistically significant differences in pore-water chemistries between the bog and fen peatland types, and large within-site spatiotemporal variability. We found that microtopography in the bog was associated with consistent differences in most biogeochemical variables. Temporal changes in dissolved solute chemistry, particularly base cations (Na(+), Ca(2+) and Mg(2+)), were statistically significant in the intermediate fen, likely a result of a dynamic connection between surficial waters and mineral-rich deep groundwater. In both the bog and fen, concentrations of SO4(2-) showed considerable spatial variability, and a significant decrease in concentrations over the study period. The observed variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry over such small spatial and temporal scales suggests that under-sampling in northern peatland environments could lead to erroneous conclusions concerning the abundance and distribution of natural elements and pollutants alike. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The MACHO Project Large Magellanic Cloud Variable-Star Inventory. IX. Frequency Analysis of the First-Overtone RR Lyrae Stars and the Indication for Nonradial Pulsations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcock, C.; Allsman, R.; Alves, D. R.; Axelrod, T.; Becker, A.; Bennett, D.; Clement, C.; Cook, K. H.; Drake, A.; Freeman, K.; Geha, M.; Griest, K.; Kovács, G.; Kurtz, D. W.; Lehner, M.; Marshall, S.; Minniti, D.; Nelson, C.; Peterson, B.; Popowski, P.; Pratt, M.; Quinn, P.; Rodgers, A.; Rowe, J.; Stubbs, C.; Sutherland, W.; Tomaney, A.; Vandehei, T.; Welch, D. L.

2000-10-01

More than 1300 variables classified provisionally as first-overtone RR Lyrae pulsators in the MACHO variable-star database of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) have been subjected to standard frequency analysis. Based on the remnant power in the prewhitened spectra, we found 70% of the total population to be monoperiodic. The remaining 30% (411 stars) are classified as one of nine types according to their frequency spectra. Several types of RR Lyrae pulsational behavior are clearly identified here for the first time. Together with the earlier discovered double-mode (fundamental and first-overtone) variables, this study increased the number of known double-mode stars in the LMC to 181. During the total 6.5 yr time span of the data, 10% of the stars showed strong period changes. The size, and in general also the patterns of the period changes, exclude a simple evolutionary explanation. We also discovered two additional types of multifrequency pulsators with low occurrence rates of 2% for each. In the first type, there remains one closely spaced component after prewhitening by the main pulsation frequency. In the second type, the number of remnant components is two; they are also closely spaced, and are symmetric in their frequency spacing relative to the central component. This latter type of variables are associated with their relatives among the fundamental pulsators, known as Blazhko variables. Their high frequency (~20%) among the fundamental-mode variables versus the low occurrence rate of their first-overtone counterparts makes it more difficult to explain the Blazhko phenomenon by any theory depending mainly on the role of aspect angle or magnetic field. None of the current theoretical models are able to explain the observed close frequency components without invoking nonradial pulsation components in these stars.
Manual and automatic locomotion scoring systems in dairy cows: a review.

PubMed

Schlageter-Tello, Andrés; Bokkers, Eddie A M; Koerkamp, Peter W G Groot; Van Hertem, Tom; Viazzi, Stefano; Romanini, Carlos E B; Halachmi, Ilan; Bahr, Claudia; Berckmans, Daniël; Lokhorst, Kees

2014-09-01

The objective of this review was to describe, compare and evaluate agreement, reliability, and validity of manual and automatic locomotion scoring systems (MLSSs and ALSSs, respectively) used in dairy cattle lameness research. There are many different types of MLSSs and ALSSs. Twenty-five MLSSs were found in 244 articles. MLSSs use different types of scale (ordinal or continuous) and different gait and posture traits need to be observed. The most used MLSS (used in 28% of the references) is based on asymmetric gait, reluctance to bear weight, and arched back, and is scored on a five-level scale. Fifteen ALSSs were found that could be categorized according to three approaches: (a) the kinetic approach measures forces involved in locomotion, (b) the kinematic approach measures time and distance of variables associated to limb movement and some specific posture variables, and (c) the indirect approach uses behavioural variables or production variables as indicators for impaired locomotion. Agreement and reliability estimates were scarcely reported in articles related to MLSSs. When reported, inappropriate statistical methods such as PABAK and Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were commonly used. Some of the most frequently used MLSSs were poorly evaluated for agreement and reliability. Agreement and reliability estimates for the original four-, five- or nine-level MLSS, expressed in percentage of agreement, kappa and weighted kappa, showed large ranges among and sometimes also within articles. After the transformation into a two-level scale, agreement and reliability estimates showed acceptable estimates (percentage of agreement ≥ 75%; kappa and weighted kappa ≥ 0.6), but still estimates showed a large variation between articles. Agreement and reliability estimates for ALSSs were not reported in any article. Several ALSSs use MLSSs as a reference for model calibration and validation. However, varying agreement and reliability estimates of MLSSs make a clear definition of a lameness case difficult, and thus affect the validity of ALSSs. MLSSs and ALSSs showed limited validity for hoof lesion detection and pain assessment. The utilization of MLSSs and ALSSs should aim to the prevention and efficient management of conditions that induce impaired locomotion. Long-term studies comparing MLSSs and ALSSs while applying various strategies to detect and control unfavourable conditions leading to impaired locomotion are required to determine the usefulness of MLSSs and ALSSs for securing optimal production and animal welfare in practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Secular Changes in the Solar Semidiurnal Tide of the Western North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2009-01-01

An analysis of twentieth century tide gauge records reveals that the solar semidiurnal tide S, has been decreasing in amplitude along the eastern coast of North America and at the mid-ocean site Bermuda. In relative terms the observed rates are unusually large, of order 10% per century. Periods of greatest change, however, are inconsistent among the stations, and roughly half the stations show increasing amplitude since the late 1990s. Excepting the Gulf of Maine, lunar tides are either static or slightly increasing in amplitude; a few stations show decreases. Large changes in solar, but not lunar, tides suggest causes related to variable radiational forcing, but the hypothesis is at present unproven. Citation: Ray, R. D. (2009), Secular changes in the solar semidiurnal tide of the western North Atlantic Ocean
Analysis of intensity variability in multislice and cone beam computed tomography.

PubMed

Nackaerts, Olivia; Maes, Frederik; Yan, Hua; Couto Souza, Paulo; Pauwels, Ruben; Jacobs, Reinhilde

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the variability of intensity values in cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) imaging compared with multislice computed tomography Hounsfield units (MSCT HU) in order to assess the reliability of density assessments using CBCT images. A quality control phantom was scanned with an MSCT scanner and five CBCT scanners. In one CBCT scanner, the phantom was scanned repeatedly in the same and in different positions. Images were analyzed using registration to a mathematical model. MSCT images were used as a reference. Density profiles of MSCT showed stable HU values, whereas in CBCT imaging the intensity values were variable over the profile. Repositioning of the phantom resulted in large fluctuations in intensity values. The use of intensity values in CBCT images is not reliable, because the values are influenced by device, imaging parameters and positioning. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
Intraindividual variability in cognitive performance in three groups of older adults: cross-domain links to physical status and self-perceived affect and beliefs.

PubMed

Strauss, Esther; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hunter, Michael; Moll, Alex; Hultsch, David F

2002-11-01

Intraindividual variability of physical status and affect/beliefs as well as their relations with cognition were examined in 3 groups of older adults: healthy elderly, individuals with a nonneurological health-related disturbance (arthritis) and people with neurological compromise (dementia). The findings showed that greater inconsistency in physical performance was observed in groups characterized by central nervous system dysfunction. By contrast, fluctuations in affect appeared to reflect other more transient sources, such as pain. In general, increased inconsistency in non-cognitive domains was associated with poorer cognitive function. There were cross-domain links between inconsistency in physical functioning and fluctuations in cognitive performance, although the nature of the links depended largely upon the neurological status of the individuals. Considered together, the result indicated that measures of cognitive as well as physical variability are important behavioral markers of neurological integrity.
Discovery of a Wolf-Rayet Star through Detection of Its Photometric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littlefield, Colin; Garnavich, Peter; Marion, G. H. Howie; Vinkó, József; McClelland, Colin; Rettig, Terrence; Wheeler, J. Craig

2012-06-01

We report the serendipitous discovery of a heavily reddened Wolf-Rayet star that we name WR 142b. While photometrically monitoring a cataclysmic variable, we detected weak variability in a nearby field star. Low-resolution spectroscopy revealed a strong emission line at 7100 Å, suggesting an unusual object and prompting further study. A spectrum taken with the Hobby-Eberly Telescope confirms strong He II emission and an N IV 7112 Å line consistent with a nitrogen-rich Wolf-Rayet star of spectral class WN6. Analysis of the He II line strengths reveals no detectable hydrogen in WR 142b. A blue-sensitive spectrum obtained with the Large Binocular Telescope shows no evidence for a hot companion star. The continuum shape and emission line ratios imply a reddening of E(B - V) = 2.2-2.6 mag. We estimate that the distance to WR 142b is 1.4 ± 0.3 kpc.
A set of high quality colour images with Spanish norms for seven relevant psycholinguistic variables: the Nombela naming test.

PubMed

Moreno-Martinez, Francisco Javier; Montoro, Pedro R; Laws, Keith R

2011-05-01

This paper presents a new corpus of 140 high quality colour images belonging to 14 subcategories and covering a range of naming difficulty. One hundred and six Spanish speakers named the items and provided data for several psycholinguistic variables: age of acquisition, familiarity, manipulability, name agreement, typicality and visual complexity. Furthermore, we also present lexical frequency data derived internet search hits. Apart from the large number of variables evaluated, these stimuli present an important advantage with respect to other comparable image corpora in so far as naming performance in healthy individuals is less prone to ceiling effect problems. Reliability and validity indexes showed that our items display similar psycholinguistic characteristics to those of other corpora. In sum, this set of ecologically valid stimuli provides a useful tool for scientists engaged in cognitive and neuroscience-based research.
Mitochondria and the non-genetic origins of cell-to-cell variability: More is different.

PubMed

Guantes, Raúl; Díaz-Colunga, Juan; Iborra, Francisco J

2016-01-01

Gene expression activity is heterogeneous in a population of isogenic cells. Identifying the molecular basis of this variability will improve our understanding of phenomena like tumor resistance to drugs, virus infection, or cell fate choice. The complexity of the molecular steps and machines involved in transcription and translation could introduce sources of randomness at many levels, but a common constraint to most of these processes is its energy dependence. In eukaryotic cells, most of this energy is provided by mitochondria. A clonal population of cells may show a large variability in the number and functionality of mitochondria. Here, we discuss how differences in the mitochondrial content of each cell contribute to heterogeneity in gene products. Changes in the amount of mitochondria can also entail drastic alterations of a cell's gene expression program, which ultimately leads to phenotypic diversity. Also watch the Video Abstract. © 2015 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.
Variability of cirrus clouds in a convective outflow during the Hibiscus campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fierli, F.; di Donfrancesco, G.; Cairo, F.; Marécal, V.; Zampieri, M.; Orlandi, E.; Durry, G.

2008-08-01

Light-weight microlidar and water vapour measurements were taken on-board a stratospheric balloon during the HIBISCUS 2004 campaign, held in Bauru, Brazil (49° W, 22° S). Cirrus clouds were observed throughout the flight between 12 and 15 km height with a high mesoscale variability in optical and microphysical properties. It was found that the cirrus clouds were composed of different layers characterized by marked differences in height, thickness and optical properties. Simultaneous water vapour observations show that the different layers are characterized by different values of the saturation with respect to ice. A mesoscale simulation and a trajectory analysis clearly revealed that the clouds had formed in the outflow of a large and persistent convective region and that the observed variability of the optical properties and of the cloud structure is likely linked to the different residence times of the convectively-processed air in the upper troposphere.
Optical Variability of Narrow-line and Broad-line Seyfert 1 Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakshit, Suvendu; Stalin, C. S.

2017-06-01

We studied the optical variability (OV) of a large sample of narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) and broad-line Seyfert 1 (BLSy1) galaxies with z < 0.8 to investigate any differences in their OV properties. Using archival optical V-band light curves from the Catalina Real Time Transient Survey that span 5-9 years and modeling them using damped random walk, we estimated the amplitude of variability. We found that NLSy1 galaxies as a class show lower amplitude of variability than their broad-line counterparts. In the sample of both NLSy1 and BLSy1 galaxies, radio-loud sources are found to have higher variability amplitude than radio-quiet sources. Considering only sources that are detected in the X-ray band, NLSy1 galaxies are less optically variable than BLSy1 galaxies. The amplitude of variability in the sample of both NLSy1 and BLSy1 galaxies is found to be anti-correlated with Fe II strength but correlated with the width of the Hβ line. The well-known anti-correlation of variability-luminosity and the variability-Eddington ratio is present in our data. Among the radio-loud sample, variability amplitude is found to be correlated with radio-loudness and radio-power, suggesting that jets also play an important role in the OV in radio-loud objects, in addition to the Eddington ratio, which is the main driving factor of OV in radio-quiet sources.
The gait standard deviation, a single measure of kinematic variability.

PubMed

Sangeux, Morgan; Passmore, Elyse; Graham, H Kerr; Tirosh, Oren

2016-05-01

Measurement of gait kinematic variability provides relevant clinical information in certain conditions affecting the neuromotor control of movement. In this article, we present a measure of overall gait kinematic variability, GaitSD, based on combination of waveforms' standard deviation. The waveform standard deviation is the common numerator in established indices of variability such as Kadaba's coefficient of multiple correlation or Winter's waveform coefficient of variation. Gait data were collected on typically developing children aged 6-17 years. Large number of strides was captured for each child, average 45 (SD: 11) for kinematics and 19 (SD: 5) for kinetics. We used a bootstrap procedure to determine the precision of GaitSD as a function of the number of strides processed. We compared the within-subject, stride-to-stride, variability with the, between-subject, variability of the normative pattern. Finally, we investigated the correlation between age and gait kinematic, kinetic and spatio-temporal variability. In typically developing children, the relative precision of GaitSD was 10% as soon as 6 strides were captured. As a comparison, spatio-temporal parameters required 30 strides to reach the same relative precision. The ratio stride-to-stride divided by normative pattern variability was smaller in kinematic variables (the smallest for pelvic tilt, 28%) than in kinetic and spatio-temporal variables (the largest for normalised stride length, 95%). GaitSD had a strong, negative correlation with age. We show that gait consistency may stabilise only at, or after, skeletal maturity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Infrared Studies of the Variability and Mass Loss of Dusty Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars in the Magellanic Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargent, Benjamin; Groenewegen, M. A. T.

2018-01-01

The asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase is one of the last phases of a star's life. AGB stars lose mass in an outflow in which dust condenses and is pushed away from the star. Extreme AGB stars are so named because their very red colors suggest very large amounts of dust, which in turn suggests extremely high mass loss rates. AGB stars also vary in brightness, and studies show that extreme AGB stars tend to have longer periods than other AGB stars and are more likely to be fundamental mode pulsators than other AGB stars. Extreme AGB stars are difficult to study, as their colors are so red due to their copious amounts of circumstellar dust that they are often not detected at optical wavelengths. Therefore, they must be observed at infrared wavelengths to explore their variability. Using the Spitzer Space Telescope, my team and I have observed a sample of extreme AGB stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) over Cycles 9 through 12 during the Warm Spitzer mission. For each cycle, we typically observed a set of extreme AGB stars at both 3.6 and 4.5 microns wavelength approximately monthly for most of a year. These observations reveal a wide range of variability properties. I present results from our analysis of the data obtained from these Spitzer variability programs, including light curve analyses and comparison to period-luminosity diagrams. Funding is acknowledged from JPL RSA # 1561703.
Improvement of isometric dorsiflexion protocol for assessment of tibialis anterior muscle strength.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Ariba; Arjunan, Sridhar P; Kumar, Dinesh

2015-01-01

It is important to accurately estimate the electromyogram (EMG)/force relationship of triceps surae (TS) muscle for detecting strength deficit of tibalis anterior (TA) muscle. In literature, the protocol for recording EMG and force of dorsiflexion have been described, and the necessity for immobilizing the ankle has been explained. However, there is a significant variability of the results among researchers even though they report the fixation of the ankle. We have determined that toe extension can cause significant variation in the dorsiflexion force and EMG of TS and this can occur despite following the current guidelines which require immobilizing the ankle. The results also show that there was a large increase in the variability of the force and the RMS of EMG of TS when the toes were not strapped compared with when they were strapped. Thus, with the current guidelines, where there are no instructions regarding the necessity of strapping the toes, the EMG/force relationship of TS could be incorrect and give an inaccurate assessment of the dorsiflexor TA strength. In summary, •Current methodology to estimate the dorsiflexor TA strength with respect to the TS activity, emphasizing on ankle immobilization is insufficient to prevent large variability in the measurements.•Toe extension during dorsiflexion was found to be one source of variability in estimating the TA strength.•It is recommended that guidelines for recording force and EMG from TA and TS muscles should require the strapping of the toes along with the need for immobilizing the ankle.
Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America

PubMed Central

Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900
Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.

PubMed

Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P

2017-06-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.