Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

2013-01-01

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

PubMed

Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

2013-10-16

A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio-demographic segments, including worsening levels of malnutrition. This paper shows the importance of disaggregated analyses of national child malnutrition data, to unmask underlying geographic and socio-demographic differences.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

PubMed

Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

2014-09-01

Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population

PubMed Central

Baril, Donald T.; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B.

2015-01-01

Objective Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. Methods This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Results Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Conclusions Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. PMID:24768362

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

PubMed

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

2014-07-01

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.

Decline in sperm count and motility in young adult men from 2003 to 2013: observations from a U.S. sperm bank.

PubMed

Centola, G M; Blanchard, A; Demick, J; Li, S; Eisenberg, M L

2016-03-01

Controversy exists regarding stability of semen quality over time with papers reporting decrease, increase or stable parameters in heterogeneous populations. The current study examined semen parameters of young adult men from 2003 to 2013 at an urban U.S. sperm bank. Semen parameters were analyzed before and after cryopreservation for a total of 9425 specimens from 489 individuals. Demographic information was obtained from a social and medical history questionnaire. Following 2-3 days abstinence, the specimens were collected at the laboratory and assessed by uniform technicians and techniques. The data were analyzed using generalized linear regression after adjustment for age, days of abstinence, for repeated samples, as well as by the Cochran-Armitage trend test. The within variability was accounted for by the repeated measures model. All p values were two-sided with p < 0.05 considered significant. There was a significant decline in sperm concentration (-3.55, 95% CI -4.87, -2.23; p < 0.001), total motility (-1.23, 95% CI -1.65, -0.82; p < 0.001), total count (-10.75, 95% CI -15.95, -5.54; p < 0.001) and total motile count (-9.43, 95% CI -13.14, -5.73; p < 0.001). There was no significant change in semen volume (0.03, 95% CI -0.02, 0.09; p = 0.2). The post-thaw total motility significantly (-2.30, 95% CI -2.72, -1.87; p < 0.001) decreased with time. Importantly, demographic and lifestyle factors were stable or improved over the study period. There was a decline in age (p(trend) = 0.003) and alcohol use (p(trend) = 0.005) and an increase in college GPA (Grade Point Average) (p(trend) = 0.02). BMI (p(trend) = 0.73), educational attainment (p(trend) = 0.2), race/ethnicity (p(trend) = 0.53), and lifestyle habits (weekly exercise, p(trend) = 0.21; smoking, p(trend) = 0.99; marital status, p(trend) = 0.85) remained constant. Uniform technicians and techniques over the study period make measurement bias unlikely. This report demonstrates a decline in semen quality among young adult men in the Boston area who were attending or completed a college education during the past 10 years, and requires further study. © 2016 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Decline in in-patient treatments of genital warts among young Australians following the national HPV vaccination program

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There has been a rapid decline in the number of young heterosexuals diagnosed with genital warts at outpatient sexual health services since the national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program started in Australia in 2007. We assessed the impact of the vaccination program on the number of in-patient treatments for genital warts. Methods Data on in-patient treatments of genital warts in all private hospitals were extracted from the Medicare website. Medicare is the universal health insurance scheme of Australia. In the vaccine period (2007–2011) and pre-vaccine period (2000–2007) we calculated the percentage change in treatment numbers and trends in annual treatment rates in private hospitals. Australian population data were used to calculate rates. Summary rate ratios of average annual trends were determined. Results Between 2000 and 2011, 6,014 women and 936 men aged 15–44 years underwent in-patient treatment for genital warts in private hospitals. In 15–24 year old women, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of vulval/vaginal warts in the vaccine period (overall decrease of 85.3% in treatment numbers from 2007 to 2011) compared to no significant trend in the pre-vaccine period (summary rate ratio (SRR) = 0.33, p < 0.001). In 25–34 year old women, declining trends were seen in both vaccine and pre-vaccine periods (overall decrease of 33% vs. 24.3%), but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.60, p < 0.001). In 35–44 year old women, there was no significant change in both periods (SRR = 0.91, p = 0.14). In 15–24 year old men, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of penile warts in the vaccine period (decrease of 70.6%) compared to an increasing trend in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.76, p = 0.02). In 25–34 year old men there was a significant decreasing trend in the vaccine period compared to no change in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.81, p = 0.04) and in 35–44 year old men there was no significant change in rates of penile warts both periods, but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.70, p = 0.02). Conclusions The marked decline in in-patient treatment of vulval/vaginal warts in the youngest women is probably attributable to the HPV vaccine program. The moderate decline in in-patient treatments for penile warts in men probably reflects herd immunity. PMID:23506489

Decline in in-patient treatments of genital warts among young Australians following the national HPV vaccination program.

PubMed

Ali, Hammad; Guy, Rebecca J; Wand, Handan; Read, Tim Rh; Regan, David G; Grulich, Andrew E; Fairley, Christopher K; Donovan, Basil

2013-03-18

There has been a rapid decline in the number of young heterosexuals diagnosed with genital warts at outpatient sexual health services since the national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program started in Australia in 2007. We assessed the impact of the vaccination program on the number of in-patient treatments for genital warts. Data on in-patient treatments of genital warts in all private hospitals were extracted from the Medicare website. Medicare is the universal health insurance scheme of Australia. In the vaccine period (2007-2011) and pre-vaccine period (2000-2007) we calculated the percentage change in treatment numbers and trends in annual treatment rates in private hospitals. Australian population data were used to calculate rates. Summary rate ratios of average annual trends were determined. Between 2000 and 2011, 6,014 women and 936 men aged 15-44 years underwent in-patient treatment for genital warts in private hospitals. In 15-24 year old women, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of vulval/vaginal warts in the vaccine period (overall decrease of 85.3% in treatment numbers from 2007 to 2011) compared to no significant trend in the pre-vaccine period (summary rate ratio (SRR) = 0.33, p < 0.001). In 25-34 year old women, declining trends were seen in both vaccine and pre-vaccine periods (overall decrease of 33% vs. 24.3%), but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.60, p < 0.001). In 35-44 year old women, there was no significant change in both periods (SRR = 0.91, p = 0.14). In 15-24 year old men, there was a significant decreasing trend in annual treatment rates of penile warts in the vaccine period (decrease of 70.6%) compared to an increasing trend in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.76, p = 0.02). In 25-34 year old men there was a significant decreasing trend in the vaccine period compared to no change in the pre-vaccine period (SRR = 0.81, p = 0.04) and in 35-44 year old men there was no significant change in rates of penile warts both periods, but the rate of change was greater in the vaccine period (SRR = 0.70, p = 0.02). The marked decline in in-patient treatment of vulval/vaginal warts in the youngest women is probably attributable to the HPV vaccine program. The moderate decline in in-patient treatments for penile warts in men probably reflects herd immunity.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji

PubMed Central

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25–64 years. Methods Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Results Over 1980–2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980–2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Conclusions Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. Implications This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. PMID:27807124

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended on the period examined. Recent trends in Southwest precipitation are directionally consistent with anthropogenic climate change.

Trends in Reported Foodborne Illness in the United States; 1996-2013.

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2016-08-01

Retrospective review is a key to designing effective food safety measures. The analysis examines trends in the reported incidence of illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013 with and without specifying a model form for trend. The findings indicate early declines in reported incidence followed by a period of no significant trend for Campylobacter, Listeria, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157, and Yersinia. The results are inconclusive about whether there is no trend or an increasing trend for Salmonella. While Shigella exhibits a continuous decline, Vibrio exhibits a continuous increase. Overall, the findings indicate a lack of evidence for continuous reduction in illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993–2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country’s geographic regions. Methods The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Results The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. Conclusions At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio-demographic segments, including worsening levels of malnutrition. This paper shows the importance of disaggregated analyses of national child malnutrition data, to unmask underlying geographic and socio-demographic differences. PMID:24131558

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2006, Featuring Colorectal Trends and Impact of Interventions (Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment) to Reduce Future Rates

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Ward, Elizabeth; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie; Zauber, Ann G.; Anderson, Robert N.; Jemal, Ahmedin; Schymura, Maria J.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Seeff, Laura C.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Goede, S. Luuk; Ries, Lynn A. G.

2009-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information about cancer occurrence and trends in the United States (U.S.). This year’s report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions. Methods Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and information on deaths from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 U.S. population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2006) trends and short-term fixed interval (1997–2006) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined significantly declined (P < .05) in the most recent time period for men and women overall and for most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the 3 most common cancers in men (i.e., lung and prostate cancers and CRC) and for two of the 3 leading cancers in women (i.e., breast cancer and CRC). The long-term trends for lung cancer mortality in women showed smaller and smaller increases until 2003 when there was a change to a non-significant decline. Microsimulation modeling shows that declines in CRC death rates are consistent with a relatively large contribution from screening and with a smaller but demonstrable impact of risk factor reductions and improved treatments. These declines are projected to continue if risk factor modification, screening, and treatment remain at current rates, but could be further accelerated with favorable trends in risk factors and higher utilization of screening and optimal treatment. Conclusions Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, rising incidence and mortality for some cancers are of concern. PMID:19998273

Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Mast, M Alisa

2013-11-01

The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970-2010 and 1990-2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO₂ emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

PubMed

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-11-01

To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Over 1980-2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980-2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

Declining trend of peritoneal dialysis: a single-center experience.

PubMed

Agraharkar, Mahendra; Henry, Sharon; Martinez, Dora; Bonds, Becky

2002-01-01

Peritoneal dialysis (PD), despite being advantageous to patient, physician, and society, has failed to show the growth it deserves. On the contrary, PD utilization has declined. Over the past several years, we have noticed a decline in the number of our home dialysis patients. When compared to the national trend, we find our trend to be not significantly different from other centers across the country. A similar trend has also been noticed in Canada. Although several reasons may exist for the decline, we intend to concentrate on local factors. In the first quarter of 1996, we had a total of 46 adult and pediatric end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on PD. That number decreased to 23 at the end of fourth quarter of the year 2001. The losses in our program far exceeded the gains. We lost our patients mainly to in-center hemodialysis (ICHD) and to transplantation. Peritonitis and membrane failure remained the major grounds for the loss to ICHD. In our center, geographic location and a lack of structured pre-ESRD education probably played a major role in the decline. Many of our patients are from distant counties that have a contract with University of Texas Medical Branch for providing health care to their indigent population. However, once those patients develop complications, the counties rely on the expertise of local physicians and nephrologists.

Malignant Lymphatic and Hematopoietic Neoplasms Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2010: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2014-01-01

Background Limited data on mortality from malignant lymphatic and hematopoietic neoplasms have been published for Serbia. Methods The study covered population of Serbia during the 1991–2010 period. Mortality trends were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results Trend for overall death rates from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms significantly decreased: by −2.16% per year from 1991 through 1998, and then significantly increased by +2.20% per year for the 1998–2010 period. The growth during the entire period was on average +0.8% per year (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3). Mortality was higher among males than among females in all age groups. According to the comparability test, mortality trends from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P = 0.232). Among younger Serbian population (0–44 years old) in both sexes: trends significantly declined in males for the entire period, while in females 15–44 years of age mortality rates significantly declined only from 2003 onwards. Mortality trend significantly increased in elderly in both genders (by +1.7% in males and +1.5% in females in the 60–69 age group, and +3.8% in males and +3.6% in females in the 70+ age group). According to the comparability test, mortality trend for Hodgkin's lymphoma differed significantly from mortality trends for all other types of malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms (P<0.05). Conclusion Unfavourable mortality trend in Serbia requires targeted intervention for risk factors control, early diagnosis and modern therapy. PMID:25333862

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Post universal health coverage trend and geographical inequalities of mortality in Thailand.

PubMed

Aungkulanon, Suchunya; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj; Shibuya, Kenji; Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi

2016-11-22

Thailand has achieved remarkable improvement in health status since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002. Health equity has improved significantly. However, challenges on health inequity still remain.This study aimed to determine the trends of geographical inequalities in disease specific mortality in Thailand after the country achieved universal health coverage. National vital registration data from 2001 to 2014 were used to calculate age-adjusted mortality rate and standardized mortality ratio (SMR). To minimize large variations in mortality across administrative districts, the adjacent districts were systematically grouped into "super-districts" by taking into account the population size and proximity. Geographical mortality inequality among super-districts was measured by the coefficient of variation. Mixed effects modeling was used to test the difference in trends between super-districts. The overall SMR steadily declined from 1.2 in 2001 to 0.9 in 2014. The upper north and upper northeast regions had higher SMR whereas Greater Bangkok achieved the lowest SMR. Decreases in SMR were mostly seen in Greater Bangkok and the upper northern region. Coefficient of variation of SMR rapidly decreased from 20.0 in 2001 to 12.5 in 2007 and remained close to this value until 2014. The mixed effects modelling revealed significant differences in trends of SMR across super-districts. Inequality in mortality declined among adults (≥15 years old) but increased in children (0-14 years old). A declining trend in inequality of mortality was seen in almost all regions except Greater Bangkok where the inequality in SMR remained high throughout the study period. A decline in the adult mortality inequality across almost all regions of Thailand followed universal health coverage. Inequalities in child mortality rates and among residents of Greater Bangkok need further exploration.

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

PubMed

Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

2004-03-29

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p < 5%), declining sharply in northern tropical Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

Isocyanate exposure and asthma in the UK vehicle repair industry.

PubMed

Stocks, S J; Jones, K; Piney, M; Agius, R M

2015-12-01

Organic diisocyanates are a common cause of occupational asthma, particularly in motor vehicle repair (MVR) workers. The UK Health & Safety Laboratory provides screening for urinary hexamethylenediamine (UHDA), a biomarker of exposure to 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI). The UK Surveillance of Work-related and Occupational Respiratory Disease scheme (SWORD) has collected reports of occupational asthma since 1996. To compare trends in HDI exposure with trends in the incidence of work-related asthma attributed to isocyanates or paint spraying in MVR workers reported to SWORD. Two-level regression models were used to estimate trends in UHDA levels and work-related asthma in MVR workers reported to SWORD. The direction and magnitude of the trends were compared descriptively. From 2006 to 2014, there was a significant decline in the number of urine samples with detectable levels of UHDA (odds ratio = 0.96; 95% confidence intervals 0.94-0.98) and minimal change in those over the guidance value (1.03; 1.00-1.06). Over the same period, there was a significant decline in all asthma cases attributed to isocyanates or paint spraying reported to SWORD (0.90; 0.86-0.94) and a non-significant decline among MVR workers (0.94; 0.86-1.02). The simultaneous decrease in HDI exposure and incident cases of asthma reported to SWORD is temporally consistent with a reduction in exposure to airborne isocyanate leading to a reduction in asthma. Although this is not direct evidence of a causal relationship between the two trends, it is suggestive. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine.

Isocyanate exposure and asthma in the UK vehicle repair industry

PubMed Central

Jones, K.; Piney, M.; Agius, R. M.

2015-01-01

Background Organic diisocyanates are a common cause of occupational asthma, particularly in motor vehicle repair (MVR) workers. The UK Health & Safety Laboratory provides screening for urinary hexamethylenediamine (UHDA), a biomarker of exposure to 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI). The UK Surveillance of Work-related and Occupational Respiratory Disease scheme (SWORD) has collected reports of occupational asthma since 1996. Aims To compare trends in HDI exposure with trends in the incidence of work-related asthma attributed to isocyanates or paint spraying in MVR workers reported to SWORD. Methods Two-level regression models were used to estimate trends in UHDA levels and work-related asthma in MVR workers reported to SWORD. The direction and magnitude of the trends were compared descriptively. Results From 2006 to 2014, there was a significant decline in the number of urine samples with detectable levels of UHDA (odds ratio = 0.96; 95% confidence intervals 0.94–0.98) and minimal change in those over the guidance value (1.03; 1.00–1.06). Over the same period, there was a significant decline in all asthma cases attributed to isocyanates or paint spraying reported to SWORD (0.90; 0.86–0.94) and a non-significant decline among MVR workers (0.94; 0.86–1.02). Conclusions The simultaneous decrease in HDI exposure and incident cases of asthma reported to SWORD is temporally consistent with a reduction in exposure to airborne isocyanate leading to a reduction in asthma. Although this is not direct evidence of a causal relationship between the two trends, it is suggestive. PMID:26209793

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2009-01-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic Monitoring Station was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more ''weathered'' secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from ''new'' sources.

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2012-05-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

Evapotranspiration in the Nile Basin: Identifying dynamics and drivers, 2002–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alemu, Henok; Kaptue, Armel T.; Senay, Gabriel; Wimberly, Michael C.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

Analysis of the relationship between evapotranspiration (ET) and its natural and anthropogenic drivers is critical in water-limited basins such as the Nile. The spatiotemporal relationships of ET with rainfall and vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin during 2002–2011 were analyzed using satellite-derived data. Non-parametric statistics were used to quantify ET-rainfall interactions and trends across land cover types and subbasins. We found that 65% of the study area (2.5 million km2) showed significant (p < 0.05) positive correlations between monthly ET and rainfall, whereas 7% showed significant negative correlations. As expected, positive ET-rainfall correlations were observed over natural vegetation, mixed croplands/natural vegetation, and croplands, with a few subbasin-specific exceptions. In particular, irrigated croplands, wetlands and some forests exhibited negative correlations. Trend tests revealed spatial clusters of statistically significant trends in ET (6% of study area was negative; 12% positive), vegetation greenness (24% negative; 12% positive) and rainfall (11% negative; 1% positive) during 2002–2011. The Nile Delta, Ethiopian highlands and central Uganda regions showed decline in ET while central parts of Sudan, South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia and northeastern Uganda showed increases. Except for a decline in ET in central Uganda, the detected changes in ET (both positive and negative) were not associated with corresponding changes in rainfall. Detected declines in ET in the Nile delta and Ethiopian highlands were found to be attributable to anthropogenic land degradation, while the ET decline in central Uganda is likely caused by rainfall reduction.

Long-term response of surface water acid neutralizing capacity in a central Appalachian (USA) river basin to declining acid deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Kathleen M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Garlitz, James E.; U'Ren, Sarah H.

2016-12-01

Long-term changes in acid-base chemistry resulting from declining regional acid deposition were examined using data from repeating synoptic surveys conducted within the 275 km2 Upper Savage River Watershed (USRW) in western Maryland (USA); a randomly-selected set of 40 stream reaches was sampled 36 times between 1999 and 2014 to: (1) repeatedly characterize the acid-base status of the entire river basin; (2) determine whether an extensive network of streams of varying order has shown signs of recovery in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC); and (3) understand the key factors controlling the rate of ANC recovery across the river network. Several non-parametric analyses of trends (i.e., Mann Kendall Trend: MKT tests; and Regional Kendall Trend: RKT) in streamwater acid-base chemistry suggest that USRW has significantly responded to declining acid deposition during the study period; the two most robust, statistically significant trends were decreasing surface water SO42- (∼1.5 μeq L-1 yr-1) and NO3- (∼1 μeq L-1 yr-1) concentrations-consistent with observed downward trends in regional wet S and N deposition. Basin-wide decreasing trends in K+, Mg2+, and Ca2+ were also observed, while Na+ concentrations increased. Significant ANC recovery was observed in 10-20% of USRW stream reaches (depending on the p level used), but the magnitude of the trend relative to natural variability was apparently insufficient to allow detection of a basin-wide ANC trend using the RKT test. Watershed factors, such as forest disturbances and increased application of road deicing salts, appeared to contribute to substantial variability in concentrations of NO3- and Na+ in streams across the basin, but these factors did not affect our overall interpretation of the results as a systematic recovery of USRW from regional acidification. Methodologically, RKT appears to be a robust method for identifying basin-wide trends using synoptic data, but MKT results for individual systems should be examined closely (e.g., to identify trends for specific subpopulations).

Pretreatment rate of decay in forced vital capacity predicts long-term response to pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

PubMed

Biondini, Davide; Balestro, Elisabetta; Lacedonia, Donato; Cerri, Stefania; Milaneschi, Rosanna; Luppi, Fabrizio; Cocconcelli, Elisabetta; Bazzan, Erica; Clini, Enrico; Foschino Barbaro, Maria Pia; Gregori, Dario; Cosio, Manuel G; Saetta, Marina; Spagnolo, Paolo

2018-04-13

Pirfenidone reduces functional decline in patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). However, response to treatment is highly heterogeneous. We sought to evaluate whether response to pirfenidone is influenced by the pretreatment rate of forced vital capacity (FVC) decline. Fifty-six IPF patients were categorized as rapid (RP) or slow progressors (SP) based on whether their FVC decline in the year preceding pirfenidone treatment was > or ≤ 10% predicted. Following pirfenidone treatment patients were followed-up every 6 months and up to 24 months. In the entire population, pirfenidone reduced significantly FVC decline from 231 to 49 ml/year at 6 months (T6) (p = 0.003) and this effect was maintained at the 12-, 18- and 24-month time points (p value for trend n.s.). In RP, the reduction of FVC decline was evident at 6 months (36 vs 706 ml/year pretreatment; p = 0.002) and maintained, though to a lesser degree, at 12 (106 ml/year), 18 (176 ml/year) and 24 months (162 ml/year; p value for trend n.s). Among SP, the reduction in FVC decline was not significant at any of the time points analyzed. In conclusion, pirfenidone reduces FVC decline in IPF patients. However, its beneficial effect is more pronounced in patients with rapidly progressive disease.

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.

Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa

2013-01-01

The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970–2010 and 1990–2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO2 emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

Long-term trends in DDT, PCBs, and chlordane in mussels from California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.

1994-12-31

Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program, however, has been continuously funded for the past 15 years. Several sites have been evaluated and were sampled often enough to obtain statistical resolution. Chlordane was evaluated at 29 stations, with 48% showing significant decreases over time; DDT was evaluated at 35 sites, with 43% showing significant declines; and PCBs were evaluated at 47 sites, with 21% showing significant drops overmore » time. Both DDT and PCBs showed declines, corresponding to decreases in their concentrations in the effluent, at sites located in the vicinity of the Los Angeles County municipal sewage outfall. This long-term investigation indicates that, contrary to public opinion, the banning of DDT, chlordane, and PCBs by the USEPA has led to overall improvement in water quality.« less

Population trends and management opportunities for neotropical migrants

Treesearch

Chandler S. Robbins; John. R. Sauer; Bruce G. Peterjohn

1993-01-01

The Breeding Bird Survey shows that certain Neotropical migrant songbird populations have been declining over the past 26 years. Among them are forest birds that require extensive forest on the breeding grounds and also forested habitats on tropical wintering grounds. Other species have shown significant declines only since the early 1980's. Birds with broader...

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Regional variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends in Portugal, 1981-2012.

PubMed

Araújo, Carla; Pereira, Marta; Viana, Marta; Rocha, Olga Laszczyńska; Bennett, Kathleen; Lunet, Nuno; Azevedo, Ana

2016-12-01

Information is scarce about the geographic variation in time trends of mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to describe trends in death rates, absolute number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to CHD among men and women in Portugal, by region, from 1981 to 2012. The age-standardized mortality rates from CHD were estimated by sex and region. We used joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the annual percent change (APC) in mortality and to identify points of significant change in the trend. The YLL due to premature mortality for CHD were computed using the Global Burden of Disease method. The age-adjusted mortality from CHD decreased between 1981 and 2012, both in men and women, but with significantly different APC by region. Smaller declines in rates were observed in Alentejo (men: APC 1993-2012: -2.4%; women: APC 1991-2012: -2.4%). The greatest decline was observed in Madeira between 2003 and 2012, in men (APC: -7.6%) and women (APC: -9.7%). The decline in rates in Algarve started only after 2003, whereas it was consistent from 1981 in the North and started in the 1990s in most other regions. A decrease in the number of deaths was only observed after 2000. The YLL from CHD decreased from 1981 to 2012, mainly after 2000. In Portugal, between 1981 and 2012, relative declines of CHD mortality indicators were different by geographic region. Consistent decreases in mortality rates were only observed in the Centre, Lisbon and North, the most populated and urbanized regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in US movie tobacco portrayal since 1950: a historical analysis.

PubMed

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Dan

2010-06-01

Portrayal of tobacco use in films has been causally linked to youth smoking initiation. However, findings regarding trends in portrayal in US films since 1950 are inconsistent, potentially due to differences in sampling densities, intercoder reliabilities and time periods covered. The present study was designed to overcome these inconsistencies with a common sampling frame and methodology. A half sample of the 30 top-grossing US films per year from 1950 to 2006 (N=855) was coded in 5-min segments for total tobacco-related content and main character tobacco use. Film tobacco trends were identified using linear regression and compared to national per capita cigarette consumption and historically significant tobacco control events. Tobacco content declined considerably since 1950. Total tobacco-related content peaked around 1961, while the decline in portrayal of main character use was already underway in 1950. Cigarette consumption peaked around 1966 with a trend that closely paralleled total tobacco content and that coincided with major tobacco control events. This study, which had high reliability, dense sampling and covered a long time period, indicates that tobacco content has declined in top-ranked US movies since 1950 with a trend in total tobacco content that closely paralleled the drop in per capita cigarette consumption and the increase in significant tobacco control efforts. Despite the inability to draw causal conclusions, tobacco portrayal in films may serve as barometer of societal support for the habit and thus efforts should continue to limit exposure to such content.

Ecological Change Drives a Decline in Mercury Concentrations in Southern Beaufort Sea Polar Bears.

PubMed

McKinney, Melissa A; Atwood, Todd C; Pedro, Sara; Peacock, Elizabeth

2017-07-18

We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g -1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g -1 ). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

Ecological change drives a decline in mercury concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKinney, Melissa A.; Atwood, Todd C.; Pedro, Sara; Peacock, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g–1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g–1). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92).

PubMed

Bailer, A J; Stayner, L T; Stout, N A; Reed, L D; Gilbert, S J

1998-07-01

An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92)

PubMed Central

Bailer, A. J.; Stayner, L. T.; Stout, N. A.; Reed, L. D.; Gilbert, S. J.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. METHODS: Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. RESULTS: Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. CONCLUSIONS: This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.   PMID:9816383

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-09-25

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s. PMID:26404333

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. Methods Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. Results HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines. Conclusions In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends. PMID:21609449

Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

PubMed

Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

2014-10-01

India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

T-Tau is Associated with Objective Memory Decline Over Two Years in Persons Seeking Help for Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Report from the Gothenburg-Oslo MCI Study.

PubMed

Hessen, Erik; Nordlund, Arto; Stålhammar, Jacob; Eckerström, Marie; Bjerke, Maria; Eckerström, Carl; Göthlin, Mattias; Fladby, Tormod; Reinvang, Ivar; Wallin, Anders

2015-01-01

There is a need to find very early markers for pre-clinical Alzheimer's disease as interventions early in the disease process are thought to be most effective. The present study aimed to address the potential relation between cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and reduced cognitive function in a relatively young cohort of memory clinic patients with subjective cognitive decline. 122 patients (mean age 63 years) with subjective cognitive decline were recruited from two university memory clinics and followed for two years. The main finding was that the subgroup with objective memory decline during the study period had significantly higher T-tau at baseline than the group with improved memory. Baseline CSF variables showed a trend toward more pathological values in the patients with memory decline compared to those who improved or remained stable. The baseline memory score of those who declined was significantly better than the baseline score of those who improved over two years. The general trend for the whole group was improved memory and executive test scores. There were no differences in cognitive scores based on CSF quartiles at baseline, nor were there differences in cognitive outcome for patients with early amnestic mild cognitive impairment versus average cognitive function at baseline. The main finding that T-tau rather than amyloid-β was associated with memory decline do not support the prevailing opinion about the chain of events assumed to take place in Alzheimer's disease. In addition, memory decline was not associated with poor baseline memory score. Thus, a memory cut-off indicating low baseline memory would not would have identified the declining group.

The 1999-2003 Summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pardieck, K.L.; Sauer, J.R.

2007-01-01

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 5-yr period 1999-2003 and the 2-yr period 2002-2003. These short-term changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-2003 interval. During 1999-2003, 41% of all species exhibited positive trends over the entire survey area, while 64% of all species exhibited positive change between 2002-2003. The continental and regional percentages of species with positive trends were also analyzed for 12 species groups having shared life-history traits. Survey-wide for the entire survey period, grassland birds exhibited the lowest percentage of increasing species (14%), with their sharpest declines occurring in the West during 1999-2003 (10% increasing). During 1999-2003, short-distance migrants experienced significant declines in all regions, where numbers of species with increasing trends ranged from 22% - 34%. Most species fared well during the 2002-2003 period, with 64% (P < 0.05) increasing survey-wide. This was primarily a result of increases in the Central and Western BBS regions where 21 of 24 species groups exhibited significant increases in the number of species with positive trends.

On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson; Mendiola, Jaime; Weksler-Derri, Dan; Mindlis, Irina; Pinotti, Rachel; Swan, Shanna H

2017-11-01

Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P < 0.001; slope in adjusted meta-regression models = -0.64; -1.06 to -0.22; P = 0.003). The slopes in the meta-regression model were modified by fertility (P for interaction = 0.064) and geographic group (P for interaction = 0.027). There was a significant decline in SC between 1973 and 2011 among Unselected Western (-1.38; -2.02 to -0.74; P < 0.001) and among Fertile Western (-0.68; -1.31 to -0.05; P = 0.033), while no significant trends were seen among Unselected Other and Fertile Other. Among Unselected Western studies, the mean SC declined, on average, 1.4% per year with an overall decline of 52.4% between 1973 and 2011. Trends for TSC and SC were similar, with a steep decline among Unselected Western (-5.33 million/year, -7.56 to -3.11; P < 0.001), corresponding to an average decline in mean TSC of 1.6% per year and overall decline of 59.3%. Results changed minimally in multiple sensitivity analyses, and there was no statistical support for the use of a nonlinear model. In a model restricted to data post-1995, the slope both for SC and TSC among Unselected Western was similar to that for the entire period (-2.06 million/ml, -3.38 to -0.74; P = 0.004 and -8.12 million, -13.73 to -2.51, P = 0.006, respectively). This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because of the significant public health implications of these results, research on the causes of this continuing decline is urgently needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Population Trends and Their Implications for Association Planning, 1981.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Constant, Anne P., Ed.; And Others

Population trends will have a significant impact on educators' decision making, not only because of declining enrollment, but also because employment patterns and staffing in schools and colleges will be affected. Among the factors that educators must contend with are: (1) The birth rate has been increasing slowly since 1974; (2) The reduction in…

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: A multiscale joinpoint regression analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Methods Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. Results State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Conclusions Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes. PMID:22142274

Geographical, temporal and racial disparities in late-stage prostate cancer incidence across Florida: a multiscale joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre; Xiao, Hong

2011-12-05

Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry. Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities. State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males. Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes.

Long-Term Declining Trends in Historical Wind Measurements at the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, 1885-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Iacono, M. J.

2014-12-01

The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, located on the 635-foot summit of Great Blue Hill ten miles south of Boston, Massachusetts, has been the site of continuous monitoring of the local weather and climate since its founding in 1885. The meticulous, extensive and high-quality climate record maintained at this location has included the measurement of wind among many other parameters since its earliest days, and this provides a unique opportunity to examine wind speed trends at this site over nearly 130 years. Although multiple wind sensors have been in use during this time and the height of the anemometers was raised in 1908, the wind records have been made as consistent as possible through careful analysis of these changes and the application of adjustments to ensure consistency. The 30-year mean wind speed at this location has decreased from 6.8 m s-1 in the middle 20th century to its present value of 6.0 m s-1 with an increase in the rate of the decline beginning around 1980. The wind speed time series shows a significant (p < 0.05) downward trend over the entire period from 1885-2013 (-0.085 m s-1 decade-1) that is stronger and also significant for the sub-periods from 1961-2013 (-0.266 m s-1 decade-1) and 1979-2008 (-0.342 m s-1 decade-1). This declining trend persists in all seasons and has significant implications for the efficiency of wind power generation in the area, if it reflects a regional change in the near-surface wind regime. The wind instruments in use since the 19th century will be described, and the official long-term record will be compared with measurements from other wind sensors at the Observatory and surrounding locations. In addition, initial investigations of the possible causes of the wind speed decline will be presented in the context of global stilling (i.e. the theory of a widespread decline in measured near-surface wind speed), including an analysis of the wind speed change as a function of wind direction.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates - United States, 2000-2015.

PubMed

Yang, Quanhe; Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G

2017-09-08

The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000-2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000-2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003-2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006-2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013-2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013-2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist.

Vital Signs: Recent Trends in Stroke Death Rates — United States, 2000–2015

PubMed Central

Tong, Xin; Schieb, Linda; Vaughan, Adam; Gillespie, Cathleen; Wiltz, Jennifer L.; King, Sallyann Coleman; Odom, Erika; Merritt, Robert; Hong, Yuling; George, Mary G.

2017-01-01

Introduction The prominent decline in U.S. stroke death rates observed for more than 4 decades has slowed in recent years. CDC examined trends and patterns in recent stroke death rates among U.S. adults aged ≥35 years by age, sex, race/ethnicity, state, and census region. Methods Trends in the rates of stroke as the underlying cause of death during 2000–2015 were analyzed using data from the National Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint software was used to identify trends in stroke death rates, and the excess number of stroke deaths resulting from unfavorable changes in trends was estimated. Results Among adults aged ≥35 years, age-standardized stroke death rates declined 38%, from 118.4 per 100,000 persons in 2000 to 73.3 per 100,000 persons in 2015. The annual percent change (APC) in stroke death rates changed from 2000 to 2015, from a 3.4% decrease per year during 2000–2003, to a 6.6% decrease per year during 2003–2006, a 3.1% decrease per year during 2006–2013, and a 2.5% (nonsignificant) increase per year during 2013–2015. The last trend segment indicated a reversal from a decrease to a statistically significant increase among Hispanics (APC = 5.8%) and among persons in the South Census Region (APC = 4.2%). Declines in stroke death rates failed to continue in 38 states, and during 2013–2015, an estimated 32,593 excess stroke deaths might not have occurred if the previous rate of decline could have been sustained. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice Prior declines in stroke death rates have not continued in recent years, and substantial variations exist in timing and magnitude of change by demographic and geographic characteristics. These findings suggest the importance of strategically identifying opportunities for prevention and intervening in vulnerable populations, especially because effective and underused interventions to prevent stroke incidence and death are known to exist. PMID:28880858

Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

2014-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

Age-Specific Trends in Incidence of Noncardia Gastric Cancer in US Adults

PubMed Central

Anderson, William F.; Camargo, M. Constanza; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Correa, Pelayo; Rosenberg, Philip S.; Rabkin, Charles S.

2011-01-01

Context For the last 50 years, overall age-standardized incidence rates for noncardia gastric cancer have steadily declined in most populations. However, overall rates are summary measures that may obscure important age-specific trends. Objective To examine effects of age at diagnosis on noncardia gastric cancer incidence trends in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive study with age-period-cohort analysis of cancer registration data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which covers approximately 26% of the US population. From 1977 through 2006, there were 83 225 adults with incident primary gastric cancer, including 39 003 noncardia cases. Main Outcome Measures Overall and age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for period and cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. Results were stratified by race, sex, and socioeconomic status. Results Overall age-standardized annual incidence per 100 000 population declined during the study period from 5.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7-6.1) to 4.0 (95% CI, 3.9-4.1) in whites, from 13.7 (95% CI, 12.5-14.9) to 9.5 (95% CI, 9.1-10.0) in blacks, and from 17.8 (95% CI, 16.1-19.4) to 11.7 (95% CI, 11.2-12.1) in other races. Age-specific trends among whites varied significantly between older and younger age groups (P < .001 for interaction by age): incidence per 100 000 declined significantly from 19.8 (95% CI, 19.0-20.6) to 12.8 (95% CI, 12.5-13.1) for ages 60 to 84 years and from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4-2.8) to 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.1) for ages 40 to 59 years but increased significantly from 0.27 (95% CI, 0.19-0.35) to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.39-0.50) for ages 25 to 39 years. Conversely, rates for all age groups declined or were stable among blacks and other races. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a significant increase in whites among younger cohorts born since 1952 (P < .001). Conclusions From 1977 through 2006, the incidence rate for noncardia gastric cancer declined among all race and age groups except for whites aged 25 to 39 years, for whom it increased. Additional surveillance and analytical studies are warranted to identify risk factors that may explain this unfavorable trend. PMID:20442388

Trend differences in men and women in rural and urban U.S. settings.

PubMed

Cepeda-Benito, A; Doogan, N J; Redner, R; Roberts, M E; Kurti, A N; Villanti, A C; Lopez, A A; Quisenberry, A J; Stanton, C A; Gaalema, D E; Keith, D R; Parker, M A; Higgins, S T

2018-04-05

Smoking prevalence is declining at a slower rate in rural than urban settings in the United States (U.S.), and known predictors of smoking do not readily account for this trend difference. Given that socioeconomic and psychosocial determinants of health disparities accumulate in rural settings and that life-course disadvantages are often greater in women than men, we examined whether smoking trends are different for rural and urban men and women. We used yearly cross-sectional data (n = 303,311) from the U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from 2007 through 2014 to compare cigarette smoking trends in men and women across rural and urban areas. Current smoking status was modelled using logistic regression controlling for confounding risk factors. Regression derived graphs predicting unadjusted prevalence estimates and 95% confidence bands revealed that whereas the smoking trends of rural men, urban men, and urban women significantly declined from 2007 to 2014, the trend for rural women was flat. Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic and psychosocial predictors of smoking did not explain rural women's significantly different trend from those of the other three groups. Rural women lag behind rural men, urban men and urban women in decreasing smoking, a health disparity finding that supports the need for tobacco control and regulatory policies and interventions that are more effective in reducing smoking among rural women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular Trends in Habitual Physical Activities of Mozambican Children and Adolescents from Maputo City

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Maia, José A. R.; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Q. F.; Daca, Timóteo; Madeira, Aspacia; Damasceno, Albertino; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Prista, António

2014-01-01

Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight–15 years), were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012). Habitual physical activity (PA) was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation.Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012) was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities. PMID:25337941

Decline in new psychoactive substance use disorders following legislation targeting headshops: Evidence from national addiction treatment data.

PubMed

Smyth, Bobby P; Lyons, Suzi; Cullen, Walter

2017-09-01

New psychoactive substances (NPS) have hedonic effects that may lead to dependence. Headshops selling NPS increased in number in Ireland from late 2009. Legislation was enacted in May and August of 2010 that caused their closure. It is unknown whether such events impact the rate of NPS use disorders. We conducted a population-based study using the Irish national database of episodes of addiction treatment between 2009 and 2012. We examined trends in the rate of NPS-related treatment episodes among young adults. Joinpoint trend analysis software was used to identify significant changes in trend. Of the 31 284 episodes of addiction treatment commenced by adults aged 18 to 34 years, 756 (2.4%) were NPS related. In 2012, the 12-month moving average rate had fallen 48% from its peak in 2010, from 9.0/100 000 to 4.7/100 000. Joinpoint analysis indicated that the rate of NPS related episodes increased by 218% (95% confidence interval 86 to 445, P = 0.001) every 4 months until the first third of 2010. From that point, the rate declined by 9.8% (95% confidence interval -14.1 to -5.4, P = 0.001) per 4-month period. There was no significant trend change in the rate of non-NPS related treatment episodes. Over the 2 years after the enactment of prohibition-styled legislation targeting NPS and headshops, the rate of NPS related addiction treatment episodes among young adults declined progressively and substantially. We found no coinciding trend change in the rate of episodes linked to other drug groups. [Smyth BP, Lyons S, Cullen W. Decline in new psychoactive substance use disorders following legislation targeting headshops: Evidence fromnational addiction treatment data. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Variations in teenage birth rates, 1991-98: national and state trends.

PubMed

Ventura, S J; Curtin, S C; Mathews, T J

2000-04-24

This report presents national birth rates for teenagers for 1991-98 and the percent change, 1991-98. State-specific teenage birth rates by age, race, and Hispanic origin for 1991 and 1998 and the percent change, 1991 to 1998, are also presented. Tabular and graphical descriptions of the trends in teenage birth rates for the Nation and each State, by age group, race, and Hispanic origin of the mother, are discussed. Birth rates for teenagers 15-19 years declined nationally between 1991 and 1998 for all age and race and Hispanic origin populations, with the steepest declines recorded for black teenagers. State-specific rates fell significantly in all States for ages 15-19 years; declines ranged from 10 to 38 percent. In general, rates by State fell more for younger than for older teenagers, ranging by State from 10 to 46 percent for ages 15-17 years. Statistically significant reductions for older teenagers ranged from 3 to 39 percent. Reductions by State were largest for black teenagers 15-19 years, with rates falling 30 percent or more in 15 States. Among the factors accounting for these declines are decreased sexual activity, increases in condom use, and the adoption of the implant and injectable contraceptives.

Improved survival after stroke: is admission to hospital the major explanation? Trend analyses of the Auckland Regional Community Stroke Studies.

PubMed

Carter, Kristie N; Anderson, Craig S; Hackett, Maree L; Barber, P Alan; Bonita, Ruth

2007-01-01

There is uncertainty regarding the impact of changes in stroke care and natural history of stroke in the community. We examined factors responsible for trends in survival after stroke in a series of population-based studies. We used statistical models to assess temporal trends in 28-day and 1-year case fatality after first-ever stroke cases registered in 3 stroke incidence studies undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand, over uniform 12-month calendar periods in 1981-1982 (n = 1,030), 1991-1992 (1,305) and 2001-2002 (1,423). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the significance of pre-defined 'patient', 'disease' and 'service/care' factors on these trends. Overall, there was a 40% decline in 28-day case fatality after stroke over the study periods, from 32% (95% confidence interval, 29-35%) in 1981-1982 to 23% (21-25%) in 1991-1992 and then 19% (17-21%) in 2002-2003. Similar relative declines were seen in 1-year case fatality. In regression models, the trends were still significant after adjusting for patient and disease factors. However, further adjustment for care factors (higher hospital admission and neuroimaging) explained most of the improvement in survival. These data show significant downwards trends in case fatality after stroke in Auckland over 20 years, which can largely be attributed to improved stroke care associated with increases in hospital admission and brain imaging during the acute phase of the illness.

Our "increasingly mobile society"? The curious persistence of a false belief.

PubMed

Wolf, Douglas A; Longino, Charles F

2005-02-01

We call attention to the widespread belief that the United States is an "increasingly mobile society," despite the fact that overall mobility has generally declined since about 1950, and interstate mobility has generally not increased during the same period. We review and extend past research documenting these mobility trends. We describe population-level mobility for people of all ages as well as for several adult age groups, using published data from the U.S. Current Population Survey. We use simple regression methods to estimate the size and significance of mobility trends. Overall mobility rates have declined for individuals of all ages and among all age groups. The largest average annual declines occur for 20- to 29-year-olds, although the rate of decline for those aged 65 and older is also large. Interstate mobility has declined slightly or remained constant, except among adults between 45 and 64 years old. Although there may be good reasons to worry about the future of family care provided to elderly individuals, increased geographic mobility does not appear to be one of them. We speculate on reasons why the false belief persists.

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart; Kenneth P. Burnham; Erica H. Dunn; Charles M. Francis; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occurring within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also...

Temporal trends in health-related quality of life after stroke: analysis from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

PubMed

Sheldenkar, Anita; Crichton, Siobhan; Douiri, Abdel; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A; Chen, Ruoling

2014-08-01

Survival after stroke has dramatically increased in the last two decades as the treatment of stroke has improved. However, time-trend analyses of health-related quality of life in stroke patients covering this time period are still not well investigated. The study aims to examine temporal trends in mental and physical health-related quality of life of stroke survivors between the period of 1995 and 2011. First in a lifetime strokes were registered in the South London Stroke Register between 1995 and 2011. Using the Short Form-12 Health Survey, trends in self-reported health-related quality of life at one-year after stroke were assessed over a 17-year period using linear regression, adjusting for socio-demographics, risk factors, and case-mix variables. Analyses stratifying by age, gender, race-ethnicity, and functional impairment were also performed. The overall trends of mental and physical health-related quality of life scores at one-year after stroke remained relatively unchanged over the period 1995-2011. However, mental health-related quality of life scores significantly improved between the period of 1995-2007 [β = 0·94 (95% CI; 0·15 to 1·74), P = 0·02], after which scores deteriorated [β = -2·02 (-3·82 to -0·22), P = 0·03]. Physical health-related quality of life scores remained stable until 2007, after which scores declined [β = -1·63 (-3·25 to -0·01), P = 0·05]. Despite declining health-related quality of life trends within the general population, stroke survivors' overall health-related quality of life remained unchanged, possibly due to lower expectations of health among stroke survivors. However, in recent years there has been a significant unexplained decline in both physical and mental health-related quality of life, suggesting that despite stroke policy aims to improve health-related quality of life, more needs to be done to target this decline. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World Stroke Organization.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

2017-03-15

In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Long - term trends of tropospheric ozone in the Czech Republic 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vana, M.

2017-12-01

The regular measurement of tropospheric ozone in the Czech Republic began within the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in 1992. The long-term trend assessment study is based on the data from the stations with the longest homogeneous data series: Košetice and Svratouch (EMEP stations), Praha-Libuš (suburban area of the capital Prague) and Churáňov (mountain site). Non-parametric Mann-Kendall method was used for trend evaluation. Significant downward trend was found both at EMEP stations and mountain station during the whole period, after 2000 the significance was lower. Warm period (April-September) displays similar patterns as whole year at regional and mountain level. On contrary, only slightly declining tendency was found in the cold period (October-March). Suburban station is characterized by not significant increasing tendency. The difference between mean annual concentrations at regional and suburban stations dropped from 20 mg.m-3 in the 90´ to 12 mg.m-3 in last five years. The annual variation is characterized by maxima in the end of spring. In June and sometimes also in July there is a decrease caused by the onset of the so-called "continental monsoon", which brings increased cloud cover and a drop in solar radiation. We then register a second maximum in July and August. According to the current Czech air quality legislation, the target value for protection of human health is exceeded when 8-hour running mean is higher than 120 mg.m-3 25times in average for 3 years. The limit was exceeded at all stations during the period 1992-2010, but at the same time, significant drop of high ozone episodes was found during this period. After 2010 the declining trend was stopped and 3-year mean declined under the target limit at all station types. Assessment of the ozone impacts on ecosystems using the AOT40 index suggests that critical level was exceeded for long periods not only in the regional areas but almost over the whole Czech Republic. In the last decade there was a decline tendency towards the requested values and after 2010 the AOT index dropped under the target value.

Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013.

PubMed

Chapman, Simon; Alpers, Philip; Jones, Michael

2016-07-19

Rapid-fire weapons are often used by perpetrators in mass shooting incidents. In 1996 Australia introduced major gun law reforms that included a ban on semiautomatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and rifles and also initiated a program for buyback of firearms. To determine whether enactment of the 1996 gun laws and buyback program were followed by changes in the incidence of mass firearm homicides and total firearm deaths. Observational study using Australian government statistics on deaths caused by firearms (1979-2013) and news reports of mass shootings in Australia (1979-May 2016). Changes in intentional firearm death rates were analyzed with negative binomial regression, and data on firearm-related mass killings were compared. Implementation of major national gun law reforms. Changes in mass fatal shooting incidents (defined as ≥5 victims, not including the perpetrator) and in trends of rates of total firearm deaths, firearm homicides and suicides, and total homicides and suicides per 100,000 population. From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100,000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100,000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100,000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100,000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides. Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.

Industry contributions to aggregate workplace injury and illness rate trends: 1992-2008.

PubMed

Ruser, John W

2014-10-01

Aggregate workplace injury and illness rates have generally declined over the past quarter century. Assessing which industries contributed to these declines is hampered by industry coding changes that broke time series data. Ratios were estimated to convert older incidence rate data to current industry codes and to create long industry time series from data of the BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses. These data were used to assess contributions to aggregate trends from within-industry incidence rate trends and across-industry hours shifts. Hours shifts toward safer industries do not explain aggregate incidence rate declines. Rather declines resulted from within-industry declines. The top 20 contributors out of 307 industries account for 40 percent of the decline and include both goods-producing and service-providing industries. These data help focus future research on industries responsible for rate declines and factors hypothesized as contributing to declines. © Published 2014 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[[Trends in fertility and policy responses in Western Europe

PubMed

Atoh, M; Mita, F

1992-01-01

The authors review trends in fertility in Western Europe since the 1960s and government policy responses. Factors associated with the declines in fertility are the contraceptive revolution, changes in marriage patterns, changes in women's roles, and the growth of individualism. The authors note that while many governments in Western Europe specifically abstain from trying to influence fertility trends, with the significant exceptions of France and Sweden, nearly all have substantial policies in place to protect the family.

The decline in BMI among Japanese women after World War II.

PubMed

Maruyama, Shiko; Nakamura, Sayaka

2015-07-01

The body mass index (BMI) of the Japanese is significantly lower than is found in other high-income countries. Moreover, the average BMI of Japanese women is lower than that of Japanese men, and the age-specific BMI of Japanese women has decreased over time. The average BMI of Japanese women at age 25 decreased from 21.8 in 1948 to 20.4 in 2010 whereas that of men increased from 21.4 to 22.3 over the same period. We examine the long-term BMI trend in Japan by combining several historical data sources spanning eleven decades, from 1901 to 2012, to determine not only when but also how the BMI decline among women began: whether its inception was period-specific or cohort-specific. Our nonparametric regression analysis generated five findings. First, the BMI of Japanese women peaked with the 1930s birth cohort. This means that the trend is cohort-specific. Second, the BMI of men outpaced that of women in the next cohort. Third, the BMI of Japanese children, boys and girls alike, increased steadily throughout the 20th century. Fourth, the gender difference in the BMI trend is due to a gender difference in the weight trend, not the height trend. Fifth, these BMI trends are observed in urban and rural populations alike. We conclude that the BMI decline among Japanese women began with those who were in their late teens shortly after World War II. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eight thousand years of economic and political history in Latin America revealed by anthropometry.

PubMed

Bogin, B; Keep, R

1999-01-01

Human growth in height may be used as a cumulative record of the nutritional and health history of a person or a population, and often reflects the economic, social and political environment in which those people live. This paper explores the relationship between growth in height and the economic, social and political environment in Latin American populations. Adult height is analysed over an 8250 year period. It is shown that economic, social and political change prior to the European conquest of the Americas resulted in positive and negative trends in mean stature. Following the European conquest, there was a decline in mean adult stature in Middle and South America that continued until about 1939. From 1940 to 1989 there was a trend for increasing mean stature. A negative trend in stature for children is found in a second analysis. Economic decline and political unrest in Guatemala since 1978 is associated with a significant decline in the mean stature of 10- and 11-year-old children from families from very high, moderate, and very low socioeconomic status.

Research productivity of Pakistan in medical sciences during the period 1996-2012.

PubMed

Meo, S A; Almasri, A A; Usmani, A M

2013-11-01

This study aimed to investigate the degree of research outcome in medical science subjects in Pakistan during the period 1996-2012. In this study, the research papers published in various global science journals during the period 1996-2012 were accessed. We recorded the total number of research documents having an affiliation with a Pakistan. The main source for information was Institute of Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science, Thomson Reuters and SCI-mago/Scopus. In global science, Pakistan contributed 58133 research papers in all science and social sciences both in ISI and non ISI indexed journals. However, in medical sciences the total number of research papers from Pakistan are 25604, citable documents 23874, citations 128061, mean citations per documents 6.45 and mean Hirsch index is 35.33. In Pakistan, the upward trend of articles published in global medical science was from the period 1996-2008. However, from 2008 the trend is markedly declined. Pakistan significantly improved its international ranking positions in research during the period 2000-2008. However, the upward trend of research papers published in global medical science could not be retained and from the year 2008 the trend started declining. This trend of research papers further declined in year 2012 compared to year 2011. It is suggested that, Pakistan must take strategic steps to enhance the research culture and increase the research and development expenditure in the country.

Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

PubMed

de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

2012-08-01

To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

Waterfowl Conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: Confronting the Complexities of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Niemuth, Neal D.; Fleming, Kathleen K.; Reynolds, Ronald E.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974–2013) and July (1974–2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts. PMID:24937641

Waterfowl conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: confronting the complexities of climate change.

PubMed

Niemuth, Neal D; Fleming, Kathleen K; Reynolds, Ronald E

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts.

When Teens Have Sex: Issues and Trends. KIDS COUNT Special Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, MD.

In the 1990s, teen pregnancy and birth rates in the United States declined significantly. Researchers cite two main factors: fewer teens are having sex, and among those who are, more are using contraception. Despite these positive trends, there are still about one million pregnancies and about half a million births each year to young women aged 15…

Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary.

PubMed

Graber, C J; Hutchings, C; Dong, F; Lee, W; Chung, J K; Tran, T

2012-01-01

There is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004-June 2005) and post- (July 2005-December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.

Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008. Methods The number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred. Results The CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994–2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994–2000 and 6.7% between 2005–2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods). Stroke mortality declined between 1990–1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994–2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods). Conclusions A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control. PMID:24079269

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Gould, William R.; Patla, Debra A.; Muths, Erin L.; Daley, Rob; Legg, Kristin; Corn, P. Stephen

2015-01-01

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002–2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver (Castor canadensis). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Ten-year change in plasma amyloid beta levels and late-life cognitive decline.

PubMed

Okereke, Olivia I; Xia, Weiming; Selkoe, Dennis J; Grodstein, Francine

2009-10-01

Plasma levels of amyloid beta peptide (Abeta) are potential biomarkers of early cognitive impairment and decline and of Alzheimer disease risk. To relate midlife plasma Abeta measures and 10-year change in plasma Abeta measures since midlife to late-life cognitive decline. Prospective study of a population-based sample. Academic research. Plasma Abeta40 and Abeta42 levels were measured in 481 Nurses' Health Study participants in late midlife (mean age, 63.6 years) and again 10 years later (mean age, 74.6 years). Cognitive testing also began 10 years after the initial blood draw. Participants completed 3 repeated telephone-based assessments (mean span, 4.1 years). Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate relations of midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to late-life cognitive decline, as well as relations of 10-year change in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to cognitive decline. The 3 primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) findings, a global score averaging the results of all tests (TICS, immediate and delayed verbal recall, category fluency, and attention), and a verbal memory score averaging the results of 4 tests of verbal recall. Higher midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios were associated with worse late-life decline on the global score (P = .04 for trend). Furthermore, increase in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios since midlife predicted greater decline in the global score (P = .03 for trend) and in the TICS (P = .02 for trend). There was no association of cognitive decline with midlife plasma Abeta42 levels alone or with change in Abeta42 levels since midlife. In this large community-dwelling sample, higher plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios in late midlife and increases in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios 10 years later were significantly associated with greater decline in global cognition at late life.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

PubMed Central

Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs. PMID:27783668

Long-term change analysis of satellite-based evapotranspiration over Indian vegetated surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Shweta; Bhattacharya, Bimal K.; Krishna, Akhouri P.

2016-05-01

In the present study, trend of satellite based annual evapotranspiration (ET) and natural forcing factors responsible for this were analyzed. Thirty years (1981-2010) of ET data at 0.08° grid resolution, generated over Indian region from opticalthermal observations from NOAA PAL and MODIS AQUA satellites, were used. Long-term data on gridded (0.5° x 0.5°) annual rainfall (RF), annual mean surface soil moisture (SSM) ERS scatterometer at 25 km resolution and annual mean incoming shortwave radiation from MERRA-2D reanalysis were also analyzed. Mann-Kendall tests were performed with time series data for trend analysis. Mean annual ET loss from Indian ago-ecosystem was found to be almost double (1100 Cubic Km) than Indian forest ecosystem (550 Cubic Km). Rainfed vegetation systems such as forest, rainfed cropland, grassland showed declining ET trend @ - 4.8, -0.6 &-0.4 Cubic Kmyr-1, respectively during 30 years. Irrigated cropland initially showed ET decline upto 1995 @ -0.8 cubic Kmyr-1 which could possibly be due to solar dimming followed by increasing ET @ 0.9 cubic Kmyr-1 after 1995. A cross-over point was detected between forest ET decline and ET increase in irrigated cropland during 2008. During 2001-2010, the four agriculturally important Indian states eastern, central, western and southern showed significantly increasing ET trend with S-score of 15-25 and Z-score of 1.09-2.9. Increasing ET in western and southern states was found to be coupled with increase in annual rainfall and SSM. But in eastern and central states no significant trend in rainfall was observed though significant increase in ET was noticed. The study recommended to investigate the influence of anthropogenic factors such as increase in area under irrigation, increased use of water for irrigation through ground water pumping, change in cropping pattern and cultivars on increasing ET.

Relationship between intraoperative regional cerebral oxygen saturation trends and cognitive decline after total knee replacement: a post-hoc analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Bilateral regional brain oxygen saturation (rSO2) trends, reflecting intraoperative brain oxygen imbalance, could warn of brain dysfunction. Various types of cognitive impairment, such as memory decline, alterations in executive function or subjective complaints, have been described three months after surgery. Our aim was to explore the potential utility of rSO2 values as a warning sign for the development of different types of decline in postoperative psychological function. Methods Observational post-hoc analysis of data for the patient sample (n = 125) of a previously conducted clinical trial in patients over the age of 65 years undergoing total knee replacement under spinal anesthesia. Demographic, hemodynamic and bilateral rSO2 intraoperative values were recorded. An absolute rSO2 value of <50% or a reduction of >20% or >25% below baseline were chosen as relevant cutoffs. Composite function test scores were created from baseline to three months for each patient and adjusted for the mean (SD) score changes for a control group (n = 55). Tests were used to assess visual-motor coordination and executive function (VM-EF) (Wechsler Digit Symbol-Coding and Visual Reproduction, Trail Making Test) and memory (Auditory Verbal Learning, Wechsler Memory Scale); scales were used to assess psychological symptoms. Results We observed no differences in baseline rSO2 values; rSO2 decreased significantly in all patients during surgery (P < 0.0001). Seventy-five patients (60%) had no sign of cognitive decline or psychological symptoms. Twenty-one patients (16.8%) had memory decline, 3 (2.4%) had VM-EF decline, and 33 (26.4%) had psychological symptoms. Left and right rSO2 values were asymmetric in patients who had memory decline (mean [SD] left-right ratio of 95.03 [8.51] vs 101.29 [6.7] for patients with no changes, P = 0.0012). The mean right-left difference in rSO2 was also significant in these patients (-2.87% [4.73%], lower on the right, P = 0.0034). Conclusions Detection of a trend to asymmetry in rSO2 values can warn of possible postoperative onset of memory decline. Psychological symptoms and memory decline were common three months after knee replacement in our patients over the age of 65 years. PMID:25061427

Relationship between intraoperative regional cerebral oxygen saturation trends and cognitive decline after total knee replacement: a post-hoc analysis.

PubMed

Salazar, Fátima; Doñate, Marta; Boget, Teresa; Bogdanovich, Ana; Basora, Misericordia; Torres, Ferran; Gracia, Isabel; Fàbregas, Neus

2014-01-01

Bilateral regional brain oxygen saturation (rSO2) trends, reflecting intraoperative brain oxygen imbalance, could warn of brain dysfunction. Various types of cognitive impairment, such as memory decline, alterations in executive function or subjective complaints, have been described three months after surgery. Our aim was to explore the potential utility of rSO2 values as a warning sign for the development of different types of decline in postoperative psychological function. Observational post-hoc analysis of data for the patient sample (n = 125) of a previously conducted clinical trial in patients over the age of 65 years undergoing total knee replacement under spinal anesthesia. Demographic, hemodynamic and bilateral rSO2 intraoperative values were recorded. An absolute rSO2 value of <50% or a reduction of >20% or >25% below baseline were chosen as relevant cutoffs. Composite function test scores were created from baseline to three months for each patient and adjusted for the mean (SD) score changes for a control group (n = 55). Tests were used to assess visual-motor coordination and executive function (VM-EF) (Wechsler Digit Symbol-Coding and Visual Reproduction, Trail Making Test) and memory (Auditory Verbal Learning, Wechsler Memory Scale); scales were used to assess psychological symptoms. We observed no differences in baseline rSO2 values; rSO2 decreased significantly in all patients during surgery (P < 0.0001). Seventy-five patients (60%) had no sign of cognitive decline or psychological symptoms. Twenty-one patients (16.8%) had memory decline, 3 (2.4%) had VM-EF decline, and 33 (26.4%) had psychological symptoms. Left and right rSO2 values were asymmetric in patients who had memory decline (mean [SD] left-right ratio of 95.03 [8.51] vs 101.29 [6.7] for patients with no changes, P = 0.0012). The mean right-left difference in rSO2 was also significant in these patients (-2.87% [4.73%], lower on the right, P = 0.0034). Detection of a trend to asymmetry in rSO2 values can warn of possible postoperative onset of memory decline. Psychological symptoms and memory decline were common three months after knee replacement in our patients over the age of 65 years.

Trends in the incidence of AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining cancers in people living with AIDS: a population-based study from São Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Tanaka, Luana F; Latorre, Maria do Rosário DO; Gutierrez, Eliana B; Heumann, Christian; Herbinger, Karl-Heinz; Froeschl, Guenter

2017-10-01

People living with AIDS are at increased risk of developing certain cancers. Since the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the incidence of AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs) has decreased in high-income countries. The objective of this study was to analyse trends in ADCs and non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) in HIV-positive people with a diagnosis of AIDS, in comparison to the general population, in São Paulo, Brazil. A probabilistic record linkage between the 'Population-based Cancer Registry of São Paulo' and the AIDS notification database (SINAN) was conducted. Cancer trends were assessed by annual per cent change (APC). In people with AIDS, 2074 cancers were diagnosed. Among men with AIDS, the most frequent cancer was Kaposi's sarcoma (469; 31.1%), followed by non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; 304; 20.1%). A decline was seen for ADCs (APC = -14.1%). All NADCs have increased (APC = 7.4%/year) significantly since the mid-2000s driven by the significant upward trends of anal (APC = 24.6%/year) and lung cancers (APC = 15.9%/year). In contrast, in men from the general population, decreasing trends were observed for these cancers. For women with AIDS, the most frequent cancer was cervical (114; 20.2%), followed by NHL (96; 17.0%). Significant declining trends were seen for both ADCs (APC = -15.6%/year) and all NADCs (APC = -15.8%/year), a comparable pattern to that found for the general female population. Trends in cancers among people with AIDS in São Paulo showed similar patterns to those found in developed countries. Although ADCs have significantly decreased, probably due to the introduction of HAART, NADCs in men have shown an opposite upward trend.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

The rise of digital direct-to-consumer advertising?: Comparison of direct-to-consumer advertising expenditure trends from publicly available data sources and global policy implications.

PubMed

Mackey, Tim K; Cuomo, Raphael E; Liang, Bryan A

2015-06-19

Pharmaceutical marketing is undergoing a major shift in the United States, in part due to new transparency regulations under the healthcare reform act. Changes in pharmaceutical marketing practices include a possible shift from more traditional forms of direct-to-consumer advertising towards emerging use of Internet-based DTCA ("eDTCA") given the growing importance of digital health or "eHealth." Though legally allowed only in the U.S. and New Zealand, eDTCA poses novel regulatory challenges, as it can cross geopolitical boundaries and impact health systems and populations outside of these countries. We wished to assess whether changes in DTCA and eDTCA expenditure trends was occurring using publicly available pharmaceutical marketing data. DTCA data was analyzed to compare trends in aggregate marketing expenditures and to assess if there were statistically significant differences in trends and magnitudes for data sources and DTCA sub-categories (including eDTCA). This was accomplished using regression lines of DTCA trend data and conducting pairwise comparisons of regression coefficients using t-tests. Means testing was utilized for comparing magnitude of DTCA expenditure. Data from multiple data sources indicate that aggregate DTCA expenditures have slightly declined during the period from 2005-2009 and are consistent with results from other studies. For DTCA sub-categories, television remained the most utilized form of DTCA, though experienced trends of declining expenditures (-13.2 %) similar to other traditional media platforms such as radio (-30.7 %) and outdoor ads (-12.1 %). The only DTCA sub-category that experienced substantial increased expenditures was eDTCA (+109.0 %) and it was the only medium that had statistically significant differences in its marketing expenditure trends compared to other DTCA sub-categories. Our study indicates that traditional DTCA marketing may be on the decline. Conversely, the only DTCA sub-category that experienced significant increases was eDTCA. However, to fully understand this possible shift to "digital" DTCA, improvements in publicly available DTCA data sources are necessary to confirm changing trends and validate existing data. Hence, utilizing the newly implemented U.S. physician-payment expenditure transparency requirements, we advocate for the mandatory disclosure of DTCA/eDTCA in order to inform future domestic and international health policy efforts regarding appropriate regulation of pharmaceutical promotion.

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Schroeder, Barbara A.; Foley, Allen M.; Witherington, Blair E.; Bresette, Michael; Clark, David; Herren, Richard M.; Arendt, Michael D.; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Provancha, Jane A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Lamont, Margaret M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Bolten, Alan B.

2013-01-01

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.

Work-related falls among union carpenters in Washington State before and after the Vertical Fall Arrest Standard.

PubMed

Lipscomb, Hester J; Li, Leiming; Dement, John

2003-08-01

Washington State enacted a change in their fall standard for the construction industry in 1991, preceding the Safety Standard for Fall Protection in the Construction Industry promulgated by Federal OSHA in 1994. We evaluated changes in the rate of falls from elevations and measures of severity among a large cohort of union carpenters after the fall standard change in Washington State, taking into account the temporal trends in their overall injury rates. There was a significant decrease in the rate of falls from height after the standard went into effect, even after adjusting for the overall decrease in work-related injuries among this cohort. Much of the decrease was immediate, likely representing the publicity surrounding fatal falls and subsequent promulgation of the standard. The greatest decrease was seen between 3 and 3(1/2) years after the standard went into effect. There was a significant reduction in mean paid lost days per event after the standard change and there was a significant reduction in mean cost per fall when adjusting for age and the temporal trend for costs among non-fall injuries. Through the use of observational methods we have demonstrated significant effects of the Washington State Vertical Fall Arrest Standard among carpenters in the absence of a control or comparison group. Without controlling for the temporal trend in overall injury rates, the rate of decline in falls appeared significantly greater, but the more pronounced, but delayed, decline was not seen. The analyses demonstrate potential error in failing to account for temporal patterns or assuming that a decline after an intervention is related to the intervention. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNulty, S.A.; Droege, S.; Masters, R.D.

2008-01-01

Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

Statistical analysis of long-term monitoring data for persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere at 20 monitoring stations broadly indicates declining concentrations.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Hung, Hayley; Cousins, Ian T

2014-11-04

During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere have been monitored at multiple stations worldwide. We used three statistical methods to analyze a total of 748 time series of selected POPs in the atmosphere to determine if there are statistically significant reductions in levels of POPs that have had control actions enacted to restrict or eliminate manufacture, use and emissions. Significant decreasing trends were identified in 560 (75%) of the 748 time series collected from the Arctic, North America, and Europe, indicating that the atmospheric concentrations of these POPs are generally decreasing, consistent with the overall effectiveness of emission control actions. Statistically significant trends in synthetic time series could be reliably identified with the improved Mann-Kendall (iMK) test and the digital filtration (DF) technique in time series longer than 5 years. The temporal trends of new (or emerging) POPs in the atmosphere are often unclear because time series are too short. A statistical detrending method based on the iMK test was not able to identify abrupt changes in the rates of decline of atmospheric POP concentrations encoded into synthetic time series.

Secondhand smoke exposure in cars among middle and high school students--United States, 2000-2009.

PubMed

King, Brian A; Dube, Shanta R; Tynan, Michael A

2012-03-01

Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) from cigarettes poses a significant health risk to nonsmokers. Among youth, the home is the primary source of SHS. However, little is known about youth exposure to SHS in other nonpublic areas, particularly motor vehicles. Data were obtained from the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 waves of the National Youth Tobacco Survey, a nationally representative survey of US students in grades 6 to 12. Trends in SHS exposure in a car were assessed across survey years by school level, gender, and race/ethnicity by using binary logistic regression. From 2000 to 2009, the prevalence of SHS exposure in cars declined significantly among both nonsmokers (39.0%-22.8%; trend P < .001) and smokers (82.3%-75.3%; trend P < .001). Among nonsmokers, this decline occurred across all school level, gender, and race/ethnicity subgroups. SHS exposure in cars decreased significantly among US middle and high school students from 2000 to 2009. Nevertheless, in 2009, over one-fifth of nonsmoking students were exposed to SHS in cars. Jurisdictions should expand comprehensive smoke-free policies that prohibit smoking in worksites and public places to also prohibit smoking in motor vehicles occupied by youth.

Elective oocyte cryopreservation for deferred childbearing.

PubMed

Goldman, Kara N; Grifo, Jamie A

2016-12-01

Elective oocyte cryopreservation for deferred childbearing has gained popularity worldwide, commensurate with increased knowledge regarding age-related fertility decline. The purpose of this review is to summarize recent data regarding trends in delayed childbearing, review recent findings surrounding age-related fertility decline, acknowledge significant gaps in knowledge among patients and providers regarding fertility decline and review outcomes following elective oocyte cryopreservation. Despite an inevitable decline in fertility and increase in miscarriage with increasing female age, there is a growing worldwide trend to delay childbearing. Patients and providers alike demonstrate large gaps in knowledge surrounding age-related fertility decline. Oocyte cryopreservation is clinically approved for medically indicated fertility preservation, but a growing number of women are using oocyte cryopreservation to defer childbearing and maintain reproductive autonomy. Mounting data support the efficacy and safety of oocyte cryopreservation when used to electively defer childbearing, with recent studies demonstrating rates of euploidy, implantation and live birth rates equivalent to in-vitro fertilization (IVF) with fresh oocytes. Oocyte cryopreservation provides women with an option to defer childbearing and maintain reproductive autonomy, with IVF success rates on par with fresh IVF. However, it is critical that patients understand the limitations of oocyte cryopreservation. Greater education regarding age-related fertility decline should be geared toward patients and providers to prevent unintended childlessness.

The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

PubMed

Islam, M Mazharul

2018-03-01

Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

Are pollinating hawk moths declining in the Northeastern United States? An analysis of collection records

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Increasing attention to pollinators and their role in providing ecosystem services has revealed a paucity of studies on long-term population trends of most insect pollinators in many parts of the world. Because targeted monitoring programs are resource intensive and unlikely to be performed on most insect pollinators, we took advantage of existing collection records to examine long-term trends in northeastern United States populations of 26 species of hawk moths (family Sphingidae) that are presumed to be pollinators. We compiled over 6,600 records from nine museum and 14 private collections that spanned a 112-year period, and used logistic generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine long-term population trends. We controlled for uneven sampling effort by adding a covariate for list length, the number of species recorded during each sampling event. We found that of the 22 species for which there was sufficient data to assess population trends, eight species declined and four species increased in detection probability (the probability of a species being recorded during each year while accounting for effort, climate, and spatial effects in the GLMMs). Of the four species with too few records to statistically assess, two have disappeared from parts of their ranges. None of the four species with diurnal adults showed a trend in detection probability. Two species that are pests of solanaceous crops declined, consistent with a seven-fold drop in the area planted in tobacco and tomato crops. We found some evidence linking susceptibility to parasitoidism by the introduced fly Compsilura concinnata (Tachinidae) to declines. Moths with larvae that feed on vines and trees, where available evidence indicates that the fly is most likely to attack, had a greater propensity to decline than species that use herbs and shrubs as larval host plants. Species that develop in the spring, before Compsilura populations have increased, did not decline. However, restricting the analysis to hawk moth records from areas outside of a “refuge” area where Compsilura does not occur did not significantly increase the intensity of the declines as would be predicted if Compsilura was the primary cause of declines. Forests have recovered over the study period across most of the northeastern U.S., but this does not appear to have been a major factor because host plants of several of the declining species have increased in abundance with forest expansion and maturation. Climate variables used in the GLMMs were not consistently related to moth detection probability. Hawk moth declines may have ecological effects on both the plants pollinated by these species and vertebrate predators of the moths. PMID:28982152

Geographic and racial variation in teen pregnancy rates in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Layde, Molly M; Remington, Patrick L

2013-08-01

Despite recent declines in teen birth rates, teenage pregnancy remains an important public health problem in Wisconsin with significant social, economic, and health-related effects. Compare and contrast teen birth rate trends by race, ethnicity, and county in Wisconsin. Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates (per 1000 teenage females) in Wisconsin from 2001-2010 were compared by racelethnicity and county of residence using data from the Wisconsin Interactive Statistics on Health. Teen birth rates in Wisconsin have declined by 20% over the past decade, from 35.5/1000 teens in 2001 to 28.3/1000 teens in 2010-a relative decline of 20.3%. However, trends vary by race, with declines among blacks (-33%) and whites (-26%) and increases among American Indians (+21%) and Hispanics (+30%). Minority teen birth rates continue to be 3 to 5 times greater than birth rates among whites. Rates varied even more by county, with an over 14-fold difference between Ozaukee County (7.8/1000) and Menominee County (114.2). Despite recent declines, teen pregnancy continues to be an important public health problem in Wisconsin. Pregnancy prevention programs should be targeted toward the populations and counties with the highest rates.

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the Clean Air Act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002.

PubMed

Murdoch, Peter S; Shanley, James B

2006-09-01

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (O4(2-)) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (O4(2-)) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining O4(2-) concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2++ Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO3-), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (approximately decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early detection of ecosystem response to climate change and pollution management strategies.

Trends in hospital admissions for sunburn in Western Australia, 1988 to 2008.

PubMed

Duke, Janine; Wood, Fiona; Semmens, James; Edgar, Dale W; Rea, Suzanne

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to assess the trends in hospitalization for sunburn in Western Australia from 1988 to 2008. De-identified linked hospital morbidity data for all index sunburn admissions in Western Australia for the period 1988 to 2008 were analyzed. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate trends in hospital admissions. Hospitalizations increased from 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-2.2) per 100 000 person years in 1988 to 2.7 (95% CI = 1.9-3.4) per 100 000 person years in 1997, declining thereafter to 1.5 (95% CI = 1.0-2.0) per 100 000 person years in 2008. Increased hospitalizations rates were estimated for adults 25 to 44 years and 65 years or older, with a significant decline estimated for children younger than 5 years; rates remained stable for all other age groups. This study found no significant overall reduction in sunburn hospitalizations over the 20-year study period. raise concerns about the sun-protective behaviors and skin cancer risk of the population in Western Australia.

Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

PubMed Central

Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

2013-01-01

Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of populations with major data gaps, including offshore small cetaceans, cryptic species, and marine mammals in low latitudes and developing nations, is needed to better understand the status of marine mammal populations worldwide. PMID:24205025

Antihypertensive treatment and US trends in stroke mortality, 1962 to 1980.

PubMed Central

Casper, M; Wing, S; Strogatz, D; Davis, C E; Tyroler, H A

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study examines the association between increases in antihypertensive pharmacotherapy and declines in stroke mortality among 96 US groups stratified by race, sex, age, metropolitan status, and region from 1962 to 1980. METHODS. Data on the prevalence of controlled hypertension and socioeconomic profiles were obtained from three successive national health surveys. Stroke mortality rates were calculated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Bureau of the Census. The association between controlled hypertension trends and stroke mortality declines was assessed with weighted regression. RESULTS. Prior to 1972, there was no association between trends in controlled hypertension and stroke mortality declines (beta = 0.04, P = .69). After 1972, groups with larger increases in controlled hypertension experienced slower rates of decline in stroke mortality (beta = 0.16, P = .003). Faster rates of decline were modestly but consistently related to improvements in socioeconomic indicators only for the post-1972 period. CONCLUSIONS. These results do not support the hypothesis that increased antihypertensive pharmacotherapy has been the primary determinant of recent declines in stroke mortality. Additional studies should address the association between declining stroke mortality and trends in socioeconomic resources, dietary patterns, and cigarette smoking. PMID:1456333

Basal area growth of sugar maple in relation to acid deposition, stand health, and soil nutrients.

PubMed

Duchesne, Louis; Ouimet, Rock; Houle, Daniel

2002-01-01

Previous studies have shown in noncalcareous soils that acid deposition may have increased soil leaching of basic cations above the input rate from soil weathering and atmospheric depositions. This phenomenon may have increased soil acidity levels, and, as a consequence, may have reduced the availability of these essential nutrients for forest growth. Fourteen plots of the Forest Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Network in Québec were used to examine the relation between post-industrial growth trends of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and acid deposition (N and S), stand decline rate, and soil exchangeable nutrient concentrations. Atmospheric N and S deposition and soil exchangeable acidity were positively associated with stand decline rate, and negatively with the average tree basal area increment trend. The growth rate reduction reached on average 17% in declining stands compared with healthy ones. The results showed a significant sugar maple growth rate reduction since 1960 on acid soils. The appearance of the forest decline phenomenon in Québec can be attributed, at least partially, to soil acidification and acid deposition levels.

Trends in state/territorial obesity prevalence by race/ethnicity among U.S. low-income, preschool-aged children.

PubMed

Pan, L; Grummer-Strawn, L M; McGuire, L C; Park, S; Blanck, H M

2016-10-01

Understanding state/territorial trends in obesity by race/ethnicity helps focus resources on populations at risk. This study aimed to examine trends in obesity prevalence among low-income, preschool-aged children from 2008 through 2011 in U.S. states and territories by race/ethnicity. We used measured weight and height records of 11.1 million children aged 2-4 years who participated in federally funded health and nutrition programmes in 40 states, the District of Columbia and two U.S. territories. We used logistic regression to examine obesity prevalence trends, controlling for age and sex. From 2008 through 2011, the aggregated obesity prevalence declined among all racial/ethnic groups (decreased by 0.4-0.9%) except American Indians/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs); the largest decrease was among Asians/Pacific Islanders (A/PIs). Declines were significant among non-Hispanic whites in 14 states, non-Hispanic blacks in seven states/territories, Hispanics in 13 states, A/PIs in five states and AI/ANs in one state. Increases were significant among non-Hispanic whites in four states, non-Hispanic blacks in three states, Hispanics in two states and A/PIs in one state. The majority of the states/territories had no change in obesity prevalence. Our findings indicate slight reductions in obesity prevalence and variations in obesity trends, but disparities exist for some states and racial/ethnic groups. © 2015 World Obesity.

Neural tube defects in Latin America and the impact of fortification: a literature review

PubMed Central

Rosenthal, Jorge; Casas, Jessica; Taren, Douglas; Alverson, Clinton J; Flores, Alina; Frias, Jaime

2015-01-01

Objective Data on the prevalence of birth defects and neural tube defects (NTD) in Latin America are limited. The present review summarizes NTD prevalence and time trends in Latin American countries and compares pre- and post-fortification periods to assess the impact of folic acid fortification in these countries. Design We carried out a literature review of studies and institutional reports published between 1990 and 2010 that contained information on NTD prevalence in Latin America. Results NTD prevalence in Latin American countries varied from 0.2 to 9.6 per 1000 live births and was influenced by methods of ascertainment. Time trends from Bogota, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala City, México and Puerto Rico showed average annual declines of 2.5% to 21.8%. Pre- and post-fortification comparisons were available for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico and México. The aggregate percentage decline in NTD prevalence ranged from 33% to 59%. Conclusions The present publication is the first to review data on time trends and the impact of folic acid fortification on NTD prevalence in Latin America. Reported NTD prevalence varied markedly by geographic region and in some areas of Latin America was among the lowest in the world, while in other areas it was among the highest. For countries with available information, time trends showed significant declines in NTD prevalence and these declines were greater in countries where folic acid fortification of staples reached the majority of the population at risk, such as Chile and Costa Rica. PMID:23464652

Trends in Canadian Sociology Master's Theses in Relation to Research Ethics Review, 1995-2004.

PubMed

van den Hoonaard, Will C

2006-12-01

THIS PAPER EXAMINES TRENDS IN CANADIAN Master's theses in sociology, 1995-2004, in the course the implementation of Canada's national research-ethics guidelines (2001), using data available from ProQuest Dissertations. While there has been no decline in the number of theses completed during this period, nearly 1/4 fewer theses now involve research participants. The proportion of theses using quantitative methods shows decline; theses using qualitative methods, however, have increased significantly over time. A closer inspection qualitative theses shows an impressive increase in the proportion of theses using interviews, while the decrease in theses using field work is even more dramatic, from 40% to 5%. The decrease of theses involving field work is particularly alarming for a significant segment of sociology that must derive its material mainly from field work. Data drawn from a larger study supplement the findings in this article.

How much does heat content of the western tropical Pacific Ocean modulate the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in the last four decades?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Junqiao; Hu, Dunxin

2014-07-01

The role of the western tropical Pacific Ocean heat content in the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset is investigated in the present paper, by using atmospheric data from NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from Japan Meteorology Agency. It is showed from the result that the heat content (HC) of the upper 400 m layer in the western tropical Pacific (WTP), especially in the region of (130°E-150°E, 0°N-14°N) in the last four decades, is a good predictive indicator for the SCSSM onset. Positive (negative) HC anomalies can induce a strong (weak) convection over the WTP, leading to stronger (weaker) Walker circulation and weaker (stronger) western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the boreal spring. Consequently, the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the tropical Indian Ocean is favorable (unfavorable) for the airflow into the SCS and for an early (late) WNPSH retreat from the SCS and hence for an early (late) SCSSM onset. It is elucidated that the long-term trend of SCSSM onset changes its sign around 1993/94 from decline to rise, which is responding and attributed to the WTP HC trend. During the period of 1971-1993, the WTP HC shows a significant decrease trend. In particular, a significant decline trend is observed in the HC difference between the WTP and western tropical Indian Ocean, which causes an easterly trend in the SCS and strengthened WNPSH trend, leading to a late onset trend of SCSSM. The situation is reverse after 1993/94.

Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country’s economic downturns and growth. Methods Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995–2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18–60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Results Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Conclusions Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults. PMID:24475868

Observed surface wind speed declining induced by urbanization in East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhengquan; Song, Lili; Ma, Hao; Xiao, Jingjing; Wang, Kuo; Chen, Lian

2018-02-01

Monthly wind data from 506 meteorological stations and ERA-Interim reanalysis during 1991-2015, are used to examine the surface wind trend over East China. Furthermore, combining the urbanization information derived from the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data during 1992-2013, the effects of urbanization on surface wind change are investigated by applying the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. The results show that the observed surface wind speed over East China is distinctly weakening with a rate of -0.16 m s-1 deca-1 during 1991-2015, while ERA-Interim wind speed does not have significant decreasing or increasing trend in the same period. The observed surface wind declining is mainly attributed to underlying surface changes of stations observational areas that were mostly induced by the urbanization in East China. Moreover, the wind declining intensity is closely related to the urbanization rhythms. The OMR annual surface wind speeds of Rhythm-VS, Rhythm-S, Rhythm-M, Rhythm-F and Rhythm-VF, have decreasing trends with the rates of -0.02 to -0.09, -0.16 to -0.26, -0.22 to -0.30, -0.26 to -0.36 and -0.33 to -0.51 m s-1 deca-1, respectively. The faster urbanization rhythm is, the stronger wind speed weakening presents. Additionally urban expansion is another factor resulted in the observed surface wind declining.

Estimated and forecasted trends in domain specific time-use and energy expenditure among adults in Russia.

PubMed

Dearth-Wesley, Tracy; Popkin, Barry M; Ng, Shu Wen

2014-01-30

Examination of historical trends and projections in estimated energy expenditure in Russia is important given the country's economic downturns and growth. Nationally representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995-2011 was used to determine the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week from occupational, domestic, travel, and active leisure physical activity (PA) domains, as well as sedentary leisure time (hours per week) among adults 18-60 years. Additionally, we projected what these values would be like in 2020 and 2030 if observed trends continue. Among male adults, the largest contributor to total PA was occupational PA followed by travel PA. In contrast, domestic PA followed by occupational PA contributed most to total PA among female adults. Total PA was 282.9 MET-hours per week in 1995 and declined to 231.7 in 2011. Total PA is projected to decrease to 216.5 MET-hours per week in 2020 and to 193.0 MET-hours per week in 2030. The greatest relative declines are occurring in travel PA. Female adults are also exhibiting significant declines in domestic PA. Changes in occupational and active leisure PA are less distinct. Policies and initiatives are needed to counteract the long-term decline of overall physical activity linked with a modernizing lifestyle and economy among Russian adults.

Food, energy, and water in an era of disappearing snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Li, S.; Xiao, M.

2017-12-01

Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying more than 65% of the water used for irrigated agriculture, energy production (both hydropower and thermal), and municipal and industrial uses. The importance of snow to western agriculture is demonstrated by the fact that most snow monitoring is performed by the US Department of Agriculture. In a paper published in 2005, we showed that roughly 70% of monitoring sites showed decreasing trends through 2002. Now, with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US show declines through 2016, of which 33% are significant (vs 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. Averaged across the western US, the decline in total April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15-30% or 25-50 km3, comparable in volume to the West's largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead. In the absence of rapid reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, these losses will accelerate; snow losses on this scale demonstrate the necessity of rethinking water storage, policy, and usage.

Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa; Ingersoll, George P.

2011-01-01

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation in the middle part of the record.

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

The missing mountain water: Slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA

Treesearch

C. H. Luce; J. T. Abatzoglou; Z. A. Holden

2013-01-01

Trends in streamflow timing and volume in the Pacific Northwest United States have been attributed to increased temperatures because trends in precipitation at lower elevation stations were negligible. We demonstrate that observed streamflow declines likely are associated with declines in mountain precipitation, revealing previously unexplored differential trends....

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

Trends of overweight and obesity, physical activity and sedentary behaviour in Czech schoolchildren: HBSC study

PubMed Central

Sigmund, Erik; Hamrik, Zdenek; Kalman, Michal

2014-01-01

Background: The decline of physical activity (PA) and the increased prevalence of overweight and obese children have been discussed worldwide. This study assessed the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity, PA and sedentary behaviour in Czech school-aged children. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire from the Czech Republic was administered in cycles in 2002, 2006 and 2010 under the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study. In the study, 14 219 children aged 11–15 years participated. Results: In comparison with 2002, there is a significant increase (P < 0.01) of obese and overweight boys in 2010. The same trend has been recorded in girls, except those in the 13-year-old group. There has been a significant decline (P < 0.05) in meeting PA recommendations in 11-year-old girls and boys and in 13-year-old girls when comparing the 2006 and 2002 data. In 2010, we found a non-significant increase or stagnation of the share of children meeting the PA recommendation compared with 2006. We found an increasing length of sedentary time for children. There were significant associations between>2 h being spent sitting by a TV or PC and consuming fruit and vegetables (negative associations) or sweets and sweetened lemonades (positive associations). Conclusions: An increasing percentage of obese or overweight children, increased sedentary time and a decline or stagnation of the proportion of children meeting recommendations for PA were found among Czech schoolchildren. Future research should evaluate PA recommendations with respect to gender, age and effective intervention approach to reduce the obesity incidence in childhood. PMID:23813709

Water-Resource Trends and Comparisons Between Partial-Development and October 2006 Hydrologic Conditions, Wood River Valley, South-Central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.; Bartolino, James R.; Tranmer, Andrew W.

2007-01-01

This report analyzes trends in ground-water and surface-water data, documents 2006 hydrologic conditions, and compares 2006 and historic ground-water data of the Wood River Valley of south-central Idaho. The Wood River Valley extends from Galena Summit southward to the Timmerman Hills. It is comprised of a single unconfined aquifer and an underlying confined aquifer present south of Baseline Road in the southern part of the study area. Streams are well-connected to the shallow unconfined aquifer. Because the entire population of the area depends on ground water for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells, rapid population growth since the 1970s has raised concerns about the continued availability of ground and surface water to support existing uses and streamflow. To help address these concerns, this report evaluates ground- and surface-water conditions in the area before and during the population growth that started in the 1970s. Mean annual water levels in three wells (two completed in the unconfined aquifer and one in the confined aquifer) with more than 50 years of semi-annual measurements showed statistically significant declining trends. Mean annual and monthly streamflow trends were analyzed for three gaging stations in the Wood River Valley. The Big Wood River at Hailey gaging station (13139500) showed a statistically significant trend of a 25-percent increase in mean monthly base flow for March over the 90-year period of record, possibly because of earlier snowpack runoff. Both the 7-day and 30-day low-flow analyses for the Big Wood River near Bellevue gaging station (13141000) show a mean decrease of approximately 15 cubic feet per second since the 1940s, and mean monthly discharge showed statistically significant decreasing trends for December, January, and February. The Silver Creek at Sportsman Access near Picabo gaging station (13150430) also showed statistically significant decreasing trends in annual and mean monthly discharge for July through February and April from 1975 to 2005. Comparisons of partial-development (ground-water conditions from 1952 to 1986) and 2006 ground-water resources in the Wood River Valley using a geographic information system indicate that most ground-water levels for the unconfined aquifer in the study area are either stable or declining. Declines are predominant in the southern part of the study area south of Hailey, and some areas exceed what is expected of natural fluctuations in ground-water levels. Some ground-water levels rose in the northern part of the study area; however, these increases are approximated due to a lack of water-level data in the area. Ground-water level declines in the confined aquifer exceed the range of expected natural fluctuations in large areas of the confined aquifer in the southern part of the study area in the Bellevue fan. However, the results in this area are approximated due to limited available water-level data.

Suicide trends in Singapore: 1955-2004.

PubMed

Chia, Boon-Hock; Chia, Audrey; Yee, Ng Wai; Choo, Tai Bee

2010-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate suicide trends in Singapore between 1955 and 2004. Suicide cases were identified from the Registry of Birth and Death, Singapore, and analyzed using Poisson regression. Overall, suicide rates in Singapore remained stable between 9.8-13.0/100,000 over the last 5 decades. Rates remain highest in elderly males, despite declines among the elderly and middle-aged males in recent years. Rates in ethnic Chinese and Indians were consistently higher than in Malays. While the rates among female Indians and Chinese have declined significantly between 1995 and 2004, some increase was noted in female Malays. Although there was no increase in overall suicide rates, risk within certain population segments has changed over time.

Secular trends in the incidence of and risk factors for ischemic stroke and its subtypes in Japanese population.

PubMed

Kubo, Michiaki; Hata, Jun; Doi, Yasufumi; Tanizaki, Yumihiro; Iida, Mitsuo; Kiyohara, Yutaka

2008-12-16

The study of long-term trends in the incidence of and risk factors for ischemic stroke subtypes could offer insights into primary and secondary prevention. We established 3 cohorts of residents >/=40 years of age in 1961, 1974, and 1988 in the Japanese community of Hisayama. Morphological examinations by autopsy or brain imaging were performed on most of the ischemic stroke cases developed in these cohorts. When 13-year follow-up data were compared, the age-adjusted incidence of ischemic stroke and lacunar infarction declined significantly from the first to the third cohort for both sexes, whereas the incidences of atherothrombotic and cardioembolic infarction did not change during this period. Hypertension was a powerful risk factor for the development of ischemic stroke, and improvement of hypertension control would have largely influenced this declining trend: The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of hypertension decreased from 3.25 (95% CI 2.17 to 4.86) in the first cohort to 1.83 (1.29 to 2.58) in the third cohort. A rapid increase in the prevalence of metabolic disorders may have offset the impact of improvements in hypertension control and resulted in a slowdown of the decline in the incidence of ischemic stroke in the cohorts in the present study; however, hypertension still makes a large contribution to the development of ischemic stroke. These findings suggest that in the Japanese population, the incidence of ischemic stroke has declined significantly over the past 40 years, probably owing to better management of hypertension. There is a need for greater primary prevention efforts in the treatment of hypertension and metabolic disorders.

Major decline in malaria morbidity and mortality in the Union of Comoros between 2010 and 2014: The effect of a combination of prevention and control measures.

PubMed

Kassim, Said Abasse; James, Peter Bai; Alolga, Rachel Nammahime; Assanhou, Assogba Gabin; Kassim, Said Mohamed; Bacar, Anfane; Silai, Rahamatou; Tian, Lei; Li, Hongchao; Ma, Aixia

2016-06-17

Malaria remains a public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. In response to this, many countries are working towards achieving the World Health Assembly and Roll Back Malaria Partnership target of a 75% decline in malaria incidence. To assess trends in malaria morbidity and mortality in the three islands of the Comoros Archipelago from 2010 to 2014. This was a retrospective study in which all confirmed malaria cases and deaths recorded between 2010 and 2014 were accessed from the national malaria control database. Trends and comparisons in malaria incidence and case fatality rates for all age groups, including under-5 children and pregnant women, were analysed using Microsoft Excel and SPSS version 16. A substantial decline in malaria incidence was observed for each island between 2010 and 2014; from 75.98 cases per 1 000 population in 2010 to 0.14 in 2014 in Moheli, 60.60 to 0.02 in Anjouan and 235.36 to 5.47 in Grand Comoro. Additionally, a general reduction in malaria case fatalities was observed. In Moheli, there were no case fatalities between 2010 and 2014, while there was a decline in the case fatality rate in Anjouan (from 1.20 fatalities per 1 000 cases to 0) and Grand Comoros (0.51 to 0). There were also significant differences (p<0.05) in malaria incidence and case fatalities between the three islands. A similar trend was observed for pregnant women and under-5 children. Our study indicates a significant decline in malaria morbidity and mortality in the islands of Moheli, Anjouan and Grand Comoro from 2010 to 2014. This considerable reduction is attributed to a combination of malaria prevention and control interventions implemented during the study period.

Trends in SSBs and snack consumption among children by age, body weight and race/ethnicity

PubMed Central

Bleich, Sara N.; Wolfson, Julia A.

2015-01-01

Objective To describe national trends in discretionary calories from sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) and snacks by age-specific body weight categories and by age- and weight-specific race/ethnicity groups. Examining these sub-populations is important as population averages may mask important differences. Design and Methods We used 24-hour dietary recall data obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2010 among children aged 2 to 19 (N=14,092). Logistic and linear regression methods were used to adjust for multiple covariates and survey design. Results The number of calories from SSBs declined significantly for nearly all age-specific body weight groups. Among overweight or obese children, significant declines in the number of calories from SSBs were observed among Hispanic children aged 2 to 5 (117 kcal vs. 174 kcal) and white adolescents aged 12 to 19 (299 kcal vs. 365 kcal). Significant declines in the number of calories from salty snacks were observed among white children aged 2 to 5 (192 kcal to 134 kcal) and 6 to 11 (273 kcal vs. 200 kcal). Conclusions The decrease in SSB consumption and increase in snack consumption observed in prior research are not uniform when children are examined within sub-groups accounting for age, weight and race/ethnicity. PMID:25919923

Declining Statewide Trends in Motor Vehicle Crashes and Injury-Related Hospital Admissions

PubMed Central

Dischinger, Patricia C.; Ryb, Gabriel E.; Kufera, Joseph A.; Ho, Shiu M.

2013-01-01

Numbers of crashes, rates of police-reported injury severity, and hospital admission rates were calculated for the ten year period between 2001 and 2010 in Maryland. Comparisons were made for two 5-year periods of 2001–2005 and 2006–2010. Crash characteristics remained similar for the two five-year periods, but there was a significant increase in occupant age. Declines in police-reported injury severity were noted for each of four age groups: 16–29, 30–54, 55–64, and 65+, with smaller declines among older occupants. In addition, there were significant declines in hospital admissions, comparing the two time periods. Although reductions in crashes may be attributable to various roadway, behavioral, and other safety improvement efforts, reductions in hospital admission rates most likely reflect major improvements in crashworthiness implemented during the past decade. For those admitted to hospitals, significant increases in injury severity were noted between the first and second time periods. There was an association between age and ISS, a measure of total bodily injury, with the highest ISS scores noted for the youngest and oldest groups (16–29 and 55+, respectively). In addition, there was a significant increase in the mean age over time, from 39 in 2001 to 43 in 2010, p<.001. In general, the incidence and severity of injuries increased for all body regions. There was also a significant increase in hospital mortality, although length of hospital stay remained the same. Given these trends, increased efforts need to focus on both injury prevention and treatment for the increasing population of older, sometimes frail, vehicle occupants. PMID:24406962

Ten-Year Secular Trends in Youth Violence: Results From the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2003-2013.

PubMed

Pool, Andrew C; Patterson, Freda; Luna, Ingrid Y; Hohl, Bernadette; Bauer, Katherine W

2017-04-01

Youth violence reduction is a public health priority, yet few studies have examined secular trends in violence among urban youth, who may be particularly vulnerable to numerous forms of violence. This study examines 10-year secular trends in the prevalence of violence-related behaviors among Philadelphia high school students. Repeated cross-sectional data were analyzed from 5 waves of the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) from 2003 to 2013. Sex-specific multivariate regression models were used to examine secular trends in multiple types of violence, accounting for age, race/ethnicity, and sampling strategy. In 2013, the most prevalent violent behavior was physical fighting among boys (38.4%) and girls (32.7%). Among girls, the prevalence of sexual assault and suicide attempts declined between 2003 and 2013 (β = -0.13, p = .04 and β = -0.14, p = .007, respectively). Among boys, significant declines in carrying a weapon (β = -0.31, p < .001), carrying a gun (β = -0.16, p = .01), and physical fighting (β = -0.35, p = .001) were observed. Whereas the prevalence of some forms of violence stabilized or declined among Philadelphia youth during 2003-2013 time span, involvement in violence-related behaviors remains common among this population. Continued surveillance and evidence-based violence reduction strategies are needed to address violence among urban youth. © 2017, American School Health Association.

Decompression illness in divers treated in Auckland, New Zealand, 1996-2012.

PubMed

Haas, Rachel M; Hannam, Jacqueline A; Sames, Christopher; Schmidt, Robert; Tyson, Andrew; Francombe, Marion; Richardson, Drew; Mitchell, Simon J

2014-03-01

The treatment of divers for decompression illness (DCI) in Auckland, New Zealand, has not been described since 1996, and subsequent trends in patient numbers and demographics are unmeasured. This was a retrospective audit of DCI cases requiring recompression in Auckland between 01 January 1996 and 31 December 2012. Data describing patient demographics, dive characteristics, presentation of DCI and outcomes were extracted from case notes and facility databases. Trends in annual case numbers were evaluated using Spearman's correlation coefficients (ρ) and compared with trends in entry-level diver certifications. Trends in patient demographics and delay between diving and recompression were evaluated using regression analyses. There were 520 DCI cases. Annual caseload decreased over the study period (ρ = 0.813, P < 0.0001) as did entry level diving certifications in New Zealand (ρ = 0.962, P < 0.0001). Mean diver age was 33.6 (95% confidence limits (CI) 32.7 to 34.5) years and age increased (P < 0.0001) over the study period. Median (range) delay to recompression was 2.06 (95% CI 0.02 to 23.6) days, and delay declined over the study period (P = 0.005). Numbers of DCI cases recompressed in Auckland have declined significantly over the last 17 years. The most plausible explanation is declining diving activity but improvements in diving safety cannot be excluded. The delay between diving and recompression has reduced.

Decline in new drug launches: myth or reality? Retrospective observational study using 30 years of data from the UK

PubMed Central

Ward, Derek J; Martino, Orsolina I; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew J

2013-01-01

Objective To describe trends in new drugs launched in the UK from 1982 to 2011 and test the hypothesis that the rate of new drug introductions has declined over the study period. There is wide concern that pharmaceutical innovation is declining. Reported trends suggest that fewer new drugs have been launched over recent decades, despite increasing investment into research and development. Design Retrospective observational study. Setting and data source Database of new preparations added annually to the British National Formulary (BNF). Main outcome measures The number of new drugs entered each year, including new chemical entities(NCEs) and new biological drugs, based on first appearance in the BNF. Results There was no significant linear trend in the number of new drugs introduced into the UK from 1982 to 2011. Following a dip in the mid-1980s (11–12 NCEs/new biologics introduced annually from 1985 to 1987), there was a variable increase in the numbers of new drugs introduced annually to a peak of 34 in 1997. This peak was followed by a decline to approximately 20 new drugs/year between 2003 and 2006, and another peak in 2010. Extending the timeline further back with existing published data shows an overall slight increase in new drug introductions of 0.16/year over the entire 1971 to 2011 period. Conclusions The purported ‘innovation dip’ is an artefact of the time periods previously studied. Reports of declining innovation need to be considered in the context of their timescale and perspective. PMID:23427198

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces).

PubMed

Dorius, Shawn F; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-07-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces)

PubMed Central

Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2011-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world’s population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality. PMID:21643494

Recent Increases in Cocaine-Related Overdose Deaths and the Role of Opioids.

PubMed

McCall Jones, Christopher; Baldwin, Grant T; Compton, Wilson M

2017-03-01

To assess trends in cocaine overdose deaths and examine the role opioids play in these deaths. We used data on drug overdose deaths in the United States from 2000 to 2015 collected in the National Vital Statistics System to calculate annual rates and numbers of cocaine-related overdose deaths overall and deaths both involving and not involving opioids. We assessed statistically significant changes in trends with joinpoint regression. Rates of cocaine-related overdose deaths increased significantly from 1.26 to 2.50 per 100 000 population from 2000 to 2006, declined to 1.35 in 2010, and increased to 2.13 in 2015. Cocaine-related overdose deaths involving opioids increased from 0.37 to 0.91 from 2000 to 2006, declined to 0.57 in 2010, and then increased to 1.36 in 2015. Cocaine-related overdose deaths not involving opioids increased from 0.89 to 1.59 from 2000 to 2006 and then declined to 0.78 in 2015. Opioids, primarily heroin and synthetic opioids, have been driving the recent increase in cocaine-related overdose deaths. This corresponds to the growing supply and use of heroin and illicitly manufactured fentanyl in the United States.

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

Why poverty remains high: the role of income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure, 1949-1999.

PubMed

Iceland, John

2003-08-01

After dramatic declines in poverty from 1950 to the early 1970s in the United States, progress stalled. This article examines the association between trends in poverty and income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure using three measures of poverty: an absolute measure, a relative measure, and a quasi-relative one. I found that income growth explains most of the trend in absolute poverty, while inequality generally plays the most significant role in explaining trends in relative poverty. Rising inequality in the 1970s and 1980s was especially important in explaining increases in poverty among Hispanics, whereas changes in family structure played a significant role for children and African Americans through 1990. Notably, changes in family structure no longer had a significant association with trends in poverty for any group in the 1990s.

Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 based on homogenized observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Liu, Weidong; Wang, Yingchun

2011-03-01

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method. The linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26, -0.39, -0.30, -0.12 and -0.22 m s-1 (10 yr)-1, respectively. Winter showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed, followed by spring, autumn and summer. The annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes (days) also decreased, more prominently for winter than for the other seasons. The declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and 1980s. The maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang (CY), a station within the central business district (CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of urbanization. The declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center, except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun (MY). The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s-1 (10 yr)-1 during 1960-2008, accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining trend. The annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing, based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset, also exhibited decreasing trends, coincident with the results from site observations. A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two decades. It is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization, while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

Declining populations of the fingernail clam Musculium transversum in the upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, D.M.; Naimo, T.J.; Weiner, J.G.; Anderson, R.V.; Sandheinrich, M.B.; Sparks, Richard E.

1995-01-01

We examined recent temporal trends in the abundance of fingernail clams Musculium transversum (formerly Sphaerium transversum) in the upper Mississippi River. Historical data on densities of fingernail clams were obtained from regional scientists and published literature. We also sampled benthos in six navigation pools in summer 1991, finding very few fingernail clams. The combined data set, including historical data and sampling results, extended from 1973 to 1992 and was sufficient to statistically evaluate trends in densities of fingernail clams in eight pools. Populations of fingernail clams declined significantly in five of the eight pools examined (Pools 2, 5, 7, 9, and 19), which spanned a 700-km reach of river from St. Paul, Minnesota, to Keokuk, Iowa. Densities in Pool 19, which had the longest historical record on fingernail clam abundance, averaged 30 000 m super(-2) in 1985 and progressively declined to zero in 1990. Combined data from all eight pools showed a significant decline in abundance of fingernail clams. An evaluation of potential causal factors led us to hypothesize that the population declines in Pools 2 to 9 were linked to point-source pollution rather than to dredging activity or commercial navigation traffic. In Pool 19, the declines of fingernail clams may have resulted from low-flow conditions during drought periods, but the causal mechanisms by which low flow influences fingernail clam abundance are unclear. The decrease in fingernail clam populations may adversely affect certain fish and wildlife, such as migrating lesser scaup Aythya affinis, which feed heavily on the small mollusk. Moreover, the decreases in populations of this pollution-sensitive mollusk may signal a large-scale deterioration in the health of this riverine ecosystem.

Time Trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants in Benthic and Pelagic Indicator Fishes from Puget Sound, Washington, USA.

PubMed

West, James E; O'Neill, Sandra M; Ylitalo, Gina M

2017-08-01

We modeled temporal trends in polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs) in two indicator fish species representing benthic and pelagic habitats in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. English sole (Parophrys vetulus, benthic) index sites and larger-scale Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii, pelagic) foraging areas represented a wide range of possible contamination conditions, with sampling locations situated adjacent to watersheds exhibiting high, medium and low development. Consistency in analytical data throughout the study was maintained by either calculating method-bias-correction factors on paired samples as methods evolved or by analyzing older archived samples by current methods. PCBs declined moderately in two herring stocks from a low-development basin (2.3 and 4.0% annual rate of decline) and showed no change in the highly developed and moderately developed basins during a 16- to 21-year period. PCBs increased in English sole from four of ten sites (2.9-7.1%), and the remaining six exhibited no significant change. PBDEs and DDTs declined significantly in all herring stocks (4.2-8.1%), although analytical challenges warrant caution in interpreting DDT results. PBDEs declined in English sole from two high-development and one low-development site (3.7-7.2%) and remained unchanged in the remaining seven. DDTs increased in English sole from one high-development site (Tacoma City Waterway) and declined in two high-development and one low development site. As with herring, analytical challenges warrant caution in interpreting the English sole DDT results. It is likely that source controls and mitigation efforts have contributed to the declines in PBDEs and DDTs overall, whereas PCBs appear to have persisted, especially in the pelagic food web, despite bans in PCB production and use.

Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

PubMed Central

Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

2016-01-01

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

Consumption of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age: the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Nooyens, Astrid C J; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; van Gelder, Boukje M; van Boxtel, Martin P J; Verschuren, W M Monique

2014-02-01

Accelerated cognitive decline increases the risk of dementia. Slowing down the rate of cognitive decline leads to the preservation of cognitive functioning in the elderly, who can live independently for a longer time. Alcohol consumption may influence the rate of cognitive decline. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the associations between the total consumption of alcoholic beverages and different types of alcoholic beverages and cognitive decline at middle age. In 2613 men and women of the Doetinchem Cohort Study, aged 43-70 years at baseline (1995-2002), cognitive function (global cognitive function and the domains memory, speed and flexibility) was assessed twice, with a 5-year time interval. In linear regression analyses, the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages was analysed in relation to cognitive decline, adjusting for confounders. We observed that, in women, the total consumption of alcoholic beverages was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function over a 5-year period (P for trend = 0·02), while no association was observed in men. Regarding the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages in men and women together, red wine consumption was inversely associated with the decline in global cognitive function (P for trend < 0·01) as well as memory (P for trend < 0·01) and flexibility (P for trend = 0·03). Smallest declines were observed at a consumption of about 1·5 glasses of red wine per d. No other types of alcoholic beverages were associated with cognitive decline. In conclusion, only (moderate) red wine consumption was consistently associated with less strong cognitive decline. Therefore, it is most likely that non-alcoholic substances in red wine are responsible for any cognition-preserving effects.

Secular Trends in Menarcheal Age in India-Evidence from the Indian Human Development Survey

PubMed Central

Pathak, Praveen Kumar; Tripathi, Niharika; Subramanian, S. V.

2014-01-01

Background Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified. Methods We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15–49 years) in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey. Results The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77) in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85) among women born prior to 1955–1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67) among women born during late 1985–1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955–1964 (95% CI: 14.89–15.11) to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63–12.56) during 1985–1989. Conclusion The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women. PMID:25369507

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Oxygen declines and the shoaling of the hypoxic boundary in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bograd, Steven J.; Castro, Carmen G.; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Palacios, Daniel M.; Bailey, Helen; Gilly, William; Chavez, Francisco P.

2008-06-01

We use hydrographic data from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations program to explore the spatial and temporal variability of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the southern California Current System (CCS) over the period 1984-2006. Large declines in DO (up to 2.1 μmol/kg/y) have been observed throughout the domain, with the largest relative DO declines occurring below the thermocline (mean decrease of 21% at 300 m). Linear trends were significant (p < 0.05) at the majority of stations down to 500 m. The hypoxic boundary (~60 μmol/kg) has shoaled by up to 90 m within portions of the southern CCS. The observed trends are consistent with advection of low-DO waters into the region, as well as decreased vertical oxygen transport following near-surface warming and increased stratification. Expansion of the oxygen minimum layer could lead to cascading effects on benthic and pelagic ecosystems, including habitat compression and community reorganization.

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Cars Among Middle and High School Students—United States, 2000–2009

PubMed Central

King, Brian A.; Dube, Shanta R.; Tynan, Michael A.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) from cigarettes poses a significant health risk to nonsmokers. Among youth, the home is the primary source of SHS. However, little is known about youth exposure to SHS in other nonpublic areas, particularly motor vehicles. METHODS Data were obtained from the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 waves of the National Youth Tobacco Survey, a nationally representative survey of US students in grades 6 to 12. Trends in SHS exposure in a car were assessed across survey years by school level, gender, and race/ethnicity by using binary logistic regression. RESULTS From 2000 to 2009, the prevalence of SHS exposure in cars declined significantly among both nonsmokers (39.0%–22.8%; trend P < .001) and smokers (82.3%–75.3%; trend P < .001). Among nonsmokers, this decline occurred across all school level, gender, and race/ethnicity subgroups. CONCLUSIONS SHS exposure in cars decreased significantly among US middle and high school students from 2000 to 2009. Nevertheless, in 2009, over one-fifth of nonsmoking students were exposed to SHS in cars. Jurisdictions should expand comprehensive smoke-free policies that prohibit smoking in worksites and public places to also prohibit smoking in motor vehicles occupied by youth. PMID:22311992

Declines in the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and flux from the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worrall, Fred; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.; Bartlett, Rebecca

2018-01-01

Increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been reported for many catchments across the northern hemisphere. Hypotheses to explain the increase have varied (eg. increasing air temperature or recovery from acidification) but one test of alternative hypotheses is the trend over the recent decade, with the competing hypotheses predicting: continuing increase; the rate of increase declining with time; and even decrease in concentration. In this study, records of DOC concentration in non-tidal rivers across the UK were examined for the period 2003-2012. The study found that: Of the 62 decade-long concentration trends that could be examined, 3 showed a significant increase, 17 experienced no significant change and 42 showed a significant decrease; in 28 of the 42 significant decreases, a significant step change was apparent with step changes being a decrease in concentration in every case. Of the 118 sites where annual flux and concentration records were available from 1974, 28 showed a significant step change down in flux and 52 showed a step down in concentration. The modal year of the step changes was 2000 with no step changes observed before 1982. At the UK national scale, DOC flux peaked in 2005 at 1354 ktonnes C/yr (5.55 tonnes C/km2/yr) but has declined since. The study suggests that there is a disconnection between DOC records from large catchments at their tidal limits and complementary records from headwater catchments, which means that mechanisms believed to be driving increases in DOC concentrations in headwaters will not necessarily be those controlling trends in DOC concentration further downstream. We propose that the changes identified here have been driven by changes in in-stream processing and changes brought about by the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive. Therefore, signals identified in headwater catchments may bear little relation to those observed in large rivers much further downstream and vice versa.

Ethnicity and birth outcome: New Zealand trends 1980-2001. Part 1. Introduction, methods, results and overview.

PubMed

Craig, Elizabeth D; Mantell, Colin D; Ekeroma, Alec J; Stewart, Alistair W; Mitchell, Ed A

2004-12-01

New Zealand Government policy during the past decade has placed a high priority on closing socioeconomic and ethnic gaps in health outcome. To analyse New Zealand's trends in preterm and small for gestational age (SGA) births and late fetal deaths during 1980-2001 and to undertake ethnic specific analyses, resulting in risk factor profiles, for each ethnic group. De-identified birth registration data from 1 189 120 singleton live births and 5775 stillbirths were analysed for the period 1980-2001. Outcomes of interest included preterm birth, SGA and late fetal death while explanatory variables included maternal ethnicity, age and New Zealand Deprivation Index decile. Trend analysis was undertaken for 1980-1994 while multivariate logistic regression was used to explore risk factors for 1996-2001. During 1980-1994, preterm birth rates were highest amongst Maori women. Preterm rates increased by 30% for European/other women, in contrast to non-significant declines of 7% for Maori women and 4% for Pacific women during this period. During the same period, rates of SGA were highest amongst Maori women. Rates of SGA declined by 30% for Pacific women, 25% for Maori women and 19% for European/other women during this period. Rates of late fetal death were highest amongst Pacific women during 1980-1994, but declined by 49% during this period, the rate of decline being similar for all ethnic groups. The marked differences in both trend data and risk factor profiles for women in New Zealand's largest ethnic groups would suggest that unless ethnicity is specifically taken into account in future policy and planning initiatives, the disparities seen in this analysis might well persist into future generations.

The Relation of Education and Income to Cognitive Function among Professional Women

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunmin; Buring, Julie E.; Cook, Nancy R.; Grodstein, Francine

2005-01-01

We investigated the relation of educational attainment and annual household income to cognitive function and cognitive decline in community-dwelling women aged 66 years or older. Subjects were 6,314 health professionals participating in the Women’s Health Study, among whom information on education and income was self-reported. From 1998 to 2000, we administered five cognitive tests, measuring general cognition, episodic memory and verbal fluency, using a validated telephone interview. Second cognitive assessments were conducted approximately two years later; information was complete for 5,573 women at the time of analysis, with 94% follow-up. We used linear and logistic regression to calculate multivariate-adjusted mean differences, and odds of cognitive impairment (defined as worst 10% of test distribution) and of substantial decline in performance (worst 10% of distribution), across various levels of education and income. After adjusting for numerous potential confounding factors, we found strong trends of increasing mean cognitive performance with increasing level of education (p-trend<0.0005 on all cognitive measures). Odds of cognitive impairment also consistently decreased with increasing education (eg, on summary score combining all tests, OR=0.6, 95% CI 0.3–0.9 comparing those with a doctoral degree to those with a 3-year associate’s degree). For income, we found significant trends of increasing mean cognitive performance with increasing income on the summary score and on episodic memory (p-trends<0.0001). For example, the OR was 0.6 (95% CI 0.4–0.8) comparing those with the highest income to the lowest income on the summary score. Results were generally similar for cognitive decline over two years, although somewhat weaker. Thus, in these well-educated, professional women, educational attainment and income both predicted cognitive function and decline. PMID:16352912

Changes in the atmospheric evaporative demand in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustin Brena-Naranjo, Jose; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Laverde-Barajas, Miguel

2015-04-01

An important driver of the hydrological cycle is the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED). Previous studies using measurements of evaporation in pans have found evidence that AED has been declining over the second half of the 20th century. Such trends have been mostly attributed to a global decline in near surface wind speed (mainly driven by changes in land cover such as the terrestrial surface roughness) whereas other variables controlling AED such as the vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation and air temperature having a more limited role (such changes are driven by long-term climatic variations). The objective of this work is to assess the temporal and spatial observed changes in pan evaporation in 151 meteorological stations located across Mexico for the period 1961-2010. The stations were located on a climatic gradient, with aridity indexes ranging between 0.3 and 10. The radiative and aerodynamic controls attributed to the observed trends are analyzed with outputs by the Noah model from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The results show a consistent decline in annual pan evaporation between 1961 and 1992 whereas the trend was reverted from 1992 until 2010. Statistically significant negative changes using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test were found in 43% of the stations for the 1961-1992 and 20% for 1992-2010, respectively. Among the climatological variables extracted from GLDAS, it was the annual wind speed that gave the highest statistical correlation. This work agrees with previous studies in other regions of the world suggesting that pan evaporation has been on average declining until 1990 followed by a slightly positive trend during the last twenty years. Finally, we show that the magnitude of change in those regions dominated by wind and those dominated by radiative processes are strongly different.

Age-Dependent Schwann Cell Phenotype Regulation Following Peripheral Nerve Injury.

PubMed

Chen, Wayne A; Luo, T David; Barnwell, Jonathan C; Smith, Thomas L; Li, Zhongyu

2017-12-01

Schwann cells are integral to the regenerative capacity of the peripheral nervous system, which declines after adolescence. The mechanisms underlying this decline are poorly understood. This study sought to compare the protein expression of Notch, c-Jun, and Krox-20 after nerve crush injury in adolescent and young adult rats. We hypothesized that these Schwann cell myelinating regulatory factors are down-regulated after nerve injury in an age-dependent fashion. Adolescent (2 months old) and young adult (12 months old) rats (n = 48) underwent sciatic nerve crush injury. Protein expression of Notch, c-Jun, and Krox-20 was quantified by Western blot analysis at 1, 3, and 7 days post-injury. Functional recovery was assessed in a separate group of animals (n = 8) by gait analysis (sciatic functional index) and electromyography (compound motor action potential) over an 8-week post-injury period. Young adult rats demonstrated a trend of delayed onset of the dedifferentiating regulatory factors, Notch and c-Jun, corresponding to the delayed functional recovery observed in young adult rats compared to adolescent rats. Compound motor action potential area was significantly greater in adolescent rats relative to young adult rats, while amplitude and velocity trended toward statistical significance. The process of Schwann cell dedifferentiation following peripheral nerve injury shows different trends with age. These trends of delayed onset of key regulatory factors responsible for Schwann cell myelination may be one of many possible factors mediating the significant differences in functional recovery between adolescent and young adult rats following peripheral nerve injury.

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Blood cadmium levels are associated with a decline in lung function in males

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, Chang-Mo; The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang; Oh, In-Hwan

Background: Cadmium exposure was found to cause a decline in lung function among the general population, but these findings were limited to smokers and gender differences were not explored. Objectives: To examine the relationship between cadmium and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) according to gender and smoking status in Korea. Methods: Cross-sectional data from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed. COPD was defined by a pre-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s divided by forced vital capacity of <0.70. A logistic regression model was used to elucidate the association between blood cadmiummore » levels and COPD according to gender and smoking status. Results: Among 3861 eligible participants, 3622 were included in the analysis. The prevalence of COPD demonstrated an increasing trend in males (P for trend<0.001), but not in females (P for trend=0.67). After adjusting for covariates, a higher blood cadmium level, but within the normal range, was associated with COPD in males, including those who had never-smoked (P for trend <0.001 and P for trend=0.008). However, a higher blood cadmium level was not significantly associated with COPD in females, including those who had never smoked (P for trend=0.39 and P for trend=0.43). Conclusions: A higher blood cadmium level, within the normal range, was associated with COPD in males, including those who had never smoked. However, there was no significant association between blood cadmium levels and COPD in females. - Highlights: • Elevated blood cadmium level is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in male. • This association can be seen even in never smoked male. • However, this association is present only in male, but not in female.« less

Aquifer geometry, lithology, and water levels in the Anza–Terwilliger area—2013, Riverside and San Diego Counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landon, Matthew K.; Morita, Andrew Y.; Nawikas, Joseph M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Langenheim, Victoria E.

2015-11-24

On the basis of data from 33 wells, water levels mostly declined between the fall of 2006 and the fall of 2013; the median decline was 5.1 feet during this period, for a median rate of decline of about 0.7 feet/year. Based on data from 40 wells, water-level changes between fall 2004 and fall 2013 were variable in magnitude and trend, but had a median decline of 2.4 feet and a median rate of decline of about 0.3 feet/ year. These differences in apparent rates of groundwater-level change highlight the value of ongoing water-level measurements to distinguish decadal, or longer term, trends in groundwater storage often associated with climatic variability and trends. Fifty-four long-term hydrographs indicated the sensitivity of groundwater levels to climatic conditions; they also showed a general decline in water levels across the study area since 1986 and, in some cases, dating back to the 1950s.

Water use in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, 2010, and water-use trends, 1985-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, Stephen J.

2016-02-25

Water-use trends in the ACF River Basin have varied during the 25 years between 1985 and 2010. Surface-water withdrawals declined between 1985 and 2000, sharply increased in 2000, and declined again between 2000 and 2010. In contrast, groundwater withdrawals increased between 1985 and 2000, declined in 2005, and increased between 2005 and 2010.

Trends in Acute Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Yang, Ju-Yeh; Lee, Tsung-Chun; Montez-Rath, Maria E.; Paik, Jane; Chertow, Glenn M.; Desai, Manisha

2012-01-01

Impaired kidney function is a risk factor for upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, an event associated with poor outcomes. The burden of upper GI bleeding and its effect on patients with ESRD are not well described. Using data from the US Renal Data System, we quantified the rates of occurrence of and associated 30-day mortality from acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding in patients undergoing dialysis; we used medical claims and previously validated algorithms where available. Overall, 948,345 patients contributed 2,296,323 patient-years for study. The occurrence rates for upper GI bleeding were 57 and 328 episodes per 1000 person-years according to stringent and lenient definitions of acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding, respectively. Unadjusted occurrence rates remained flat (stringent) or increased (lenient) from 1997 to 2008; after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid conditions, however, we found a significant decline for both definitions (linear approximation, 2.7% and 1.5% per year, respectively; P<0.001). In more recent years, patients had higher hematocrit levels before upper GI bleeding episodes and were more likely to receive blood transfusions during an episode. Overall 30-day mortality was 11.8%, which declined significantly over time (relative declines of 2.3% or 2.8% per year for the stringent and lenient definitions, respectively). In summary, despite declining trends worldwide, crude rates of acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding among patients undergoing dialysis have not decreased in the past 10 years. Although 30-day mortality related to upper GI bleeding declined, perhaps reflecting improvements in medical care, the burden on the ESRD population remains substantial. PMID:22266666

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the clean air act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murdoch, Peter S.; Shanley, J.B.

2006-01-01

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining SO2-4 concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2+ + Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO-3), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (???decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early detection of ecosystem response to climate change and pollution management strategies. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. 2006.

The impact of OSHA recordkeeping regulation changes on occupational injury and illness trends in the US: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Friedman, Lee S; Forst, Linda

2007-07-01

The Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII), based on Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) logs, indicates that the number of occupational injuries and illnesses in the US has steadily declined by 35.8% between 1992-2003. However, major changes to the OSHA recordkeeping standard occurred in 1995 and 2001. The authors assessed the relation between changes in OSHA recordkeeping regulations and the trend in occupational injuries and illnesses. SOII data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for years 1992-2003 were collected. The authors assessed time series data using join-point regression models. Before the first major recordkeeping change in 1995, injuries and illnesses declined annually by 0.5%. In the period 1995-2000 the slope declined by 3.1% annually (95% CI -3.7% to -2.5%), followed by another more precipitous decline occurring in 2001-2003 (-8.3%; 95% CI -10.0% to -6.6%). When stratifying the data, the authors continued to observe significant changes occurring in 1995 and 2001. The substantial declines in the number of injuries and illnesses correspond directly with changes in OSHA recordkeeping rules. Changes in employment, productivity, OSHA enforcement activity and sampling error do not explain the large decline. Based on the baseline slope (join-point regression analysis, 1992-4), the authors expected a decline of 407 964 injuries and illnesses during the period of follow-up if no intervention occurred; they actually observed a decline of 2.4 million injuries and illnesses of which 2 million or 83% of the decline can be attributed to the change in the OSHA recordkeeping rules.

The impact of OSHA recordkeeping regulation changes on occupational injury and illness trends in the US: a time‐series analysis

PubMed Central

Friedman, Lee S; Forst, Linda

2007-01-01

Objectives The Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII), based on Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) logs, indicates that the number of occupational injuries and illnesses in the US has steadily declined by 35.8% between 1992–2003. However, major changes to the OSHA recordkeeping standard occurred in 1995 and 2001. The authors assessed the relation between changes in OSHA recordkeeping regulations and the trend in occupational injuries and illnesses. Methods SOII data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for years 1992–2003 were collected. The authors assessed time series data using join‐point regression models. Results Before the first major recordkeeping change in 1995, injuries and illnesses declined annually by 0.5%. In the period 1995–2000 the slope declined by 3.1% annually (95% CI −3.7% to −2.5%), followed by another more precipitous decline occurring in 2001–2003 (−8.3%; 95% CI −10.0% to −6.6%). When stratifying the data, the authors continued to observe significant changes occurring in 1995 and 2001. Conclusions The substantial declines in the number of injuries and illnesses correspond directly with changes in OSHA recordkeeping rules. Changes in employment, productivity, OSHA enforcement activity and sampling error do not explain the large decline. Based on the baseline slope (join‐point regression analysis, 1992–4), the authors expected a decline of 407 964 injuries and illnesses during the period of follow‐up if no intervention occurred; they actually observed a decline of 2.4 million injuries and illnesses of which 2 million or 83% of the decline can be attributed to the change in the OSHA recordkeeping rules. PMID:17303676

Making Science Come Alive.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitford, Dennis J.; Eisman, Greg A.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Naval Academy oceanography major is bucking the nationwide trend toward declining enrollments in science majors study tracks. Nontraditional approaches used include interdisciplinary and applied science, significant instructor experience in applying the major outside academia, hands-on laboratories in all classes, and an oceanography…

Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate.

PubMed

Kearney, Melissa S; Levine, Phillip B

2015-05-01

We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Impact of quality measurement, transparency and peer review on in-hospital mortality - retrospective before-after study with 63 hospitals].

PubMed

Nimptsch, Ulrike; Peschke, Dirk; Mansky, Thomas

2016-10-01

In 2008 the 'Initiative Qualitätsmedizin' (initiative for quality in medical care, IQM) was established as a voluntary non-profit association of hospital providers of all kinds of ownership. Currently, about 350 hospitals from Germany and Switzerland participate in IQM. Member hospitals are committed to a quality strategy based on measuring outcome indicators using administrative data, peer review procedures to improve medical quality, and transparency by public reporting. This study aims to investigate whether voluntary implementation of this approach is associated with improvements in medical outcome. Within a retrospective before-after study 63 hospitals, which started to participate in IQM between 2009 and 2011, were monitored. In-hospital mortality in these hospitals was studied for 14 selected inpatient services in comparison to the German national average. The analyses examine whether in-hospital mortality declined after participation of the studied hospitals in IQM, independently of secular trends or deviations in case mix when compared to the national average, and whether such findings were associated with initial hospital performance or peer review procedures. Declining in-hospital mortality was observed in hospitals with initially subpar performance. These declines were statistically significant for treatment of myocardial infarction, heart failure, pneumonia, and septicemia. Similar, but statistically non-significant trends were observed for nine further treatments. Following peer-review procedures significant declines in in-hospital mortality were observed for treatments of myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia. Mortality declines after peer reviews regarding stroke, hip fracture and colorectal resection were not significant, and after peer reviews regarding mechanically ventilated patients no changes were observed. The results point to a positive impact of the quality approach applied by IQM on clinical outcomes. A more targeted selection of hospitals to be peer-reviewed might further enhance the impact of this approach. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Trait correlates of distribution trends in the Odonata of Britain and Ireland

PubMed Central

Cham, Steve S.A.; Smallshire, Dave; Isaac, Nick J.B.

2015-01-01

A major challenge in ecology is understanding why certain species persist, while others decline, in response to environmental change. Trait-based comparative analyses are useful in this regard as they can help identify the key drivers of decline, and highlight traits that promote resistance to change. Despite their popularity trait-based comparative analyses tend to focus on explaining variation in range shift and extinction risk, seldom being applied to actual measures of species decline. Furthermore they have tended to be taxonomically restricted to birds, mammals, plants and butterflies. Here we utilise a novel approach to estimate occurrence trends for the Odonata in Britain and Ireland, and examine trait correlates of these trends using a recently available trait dataset. We found the dragonfly fauna in Britain and Ireland has undergone considerable change between 1980 and 2012, with 22 and 53% of species declining and increasing, respectively. Distribution region, habitat specialism and range size were the key traits associated with these trends, where habitat generalists that occupy southern Britain tend to have increased in comparison to the declining narrow-ranged specialist species. In combination with previous evidence, we conclude that the lower trend estimates for the narrow-ranged specialists could be a sign of biotic homogenization with ecological specialists being replaced by warm-adapted generalists. PMID:26618083

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

PubMed Central

Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

2010-01-01

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

Declining trends in alcohol consumption among Swedish youth-does the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures apply?

PubMed

Raninen, Jonas; Livingston, Michael; Leifman, Håkan

2014-11-01

To analyse trends in alcohol consumption among young people in Sweden between 2004 and 2012, to test whether the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid for a population of young people and to investigate the impact of an increasing proportion of abstainers on the overall per capita trends. Data were drawn from an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of students in year 11 (17-18 years old). The data covered 9 years and the total sample comprised 36,141 students. Changes in the overall per capita consumption were tested using linear regression on log-transformed data, and changes in abstention rates were tested using logistic regression. The analyses were then continued by calculating average consumption in deciles. Alcohol consumption among year 11 students declined significantly among both boys and girls between 2004 and 2012. These changes were reflected at all levels of consumption, and the same results were found when abstainers were excluded from the analyses. The increasing proportion of abstainers had a minimal effect on the overall decline in consumption; rather, this was driven by a decline in consumption among the heaviest drinkers. The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures seems valid for understanding changes in alcohol consumption among Swedish year 11 students. No support was found for a polarization of alcohol consumption in this nationally representative sample. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Trends in prevalence of multi drug resistant tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Adamu, Aishatu L.; Galadanci, Najibah A.; Zubayr, Bashir; Odoh, Chisom N.; Aliyu, Muktar H.

2017-01-01

Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), is an emerging public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study aims to determine the trends in prevalence of MDR-TB among new TB cases in sub-Saharan Africa over two decades. Methods We searched electronic data bases and accessed all prevalence studies of MDR-TB within SSA between 2007 and 2017. We determined pooled prevalence estimates using random effects models and determined trends using meta-regression. Results Results: We identified 915 studies satisfying inclusion criteria. Cumulatively, studies reported on MDR-TB culture of 34,652 persons. The pooled prevalence of MDR-TB in new cases was 2.1% (95% CI; 1.7–2.5%). There was a non-significant decline in prevalence by 0.12% per year. Conclusion We found a low prevalence estimate of MDR-TB, and a slight temporal decline over the study period. There is a need for continuous MDR-TB surveillance among patients with TB. PMID:28945771

Unintentional injury mortality among indigenous communities of Taiwan: trends from 2002 to 2013 and evaluation of a community-based intervention.

PubMed

Pan, Stephen W; Chong, Hiu Ha; Kao, Hui-Chuan

2017-11-27

Indigenous communities in Taiwan shoulder a disproportionate burden of unintentional injury fatalities. We compare unintentional injury mortality rate trends among Taiwan's indigenous communities and the general population from 2002 to 2013, and evaluate potential impact of a community-based injury prevention programme on indigenous unintentional injury death rates. Standardised and crude unintentional injury mortality rates were obtained from Taiwan government reports. Segmented linear regression was used to estimate and compare unintentional injury mortality rate trends before and after the intervention. Between 2002 and 2013, unintentional injury mortality rates among Taiwan's indigenous population significantly declined by about 4.5 deaths per 100 000 each year (p<0.0001). During that time, the unintentional injury mortality rate ratio between indigenous Taiwanese and the general population significantly decreased by approximately 1% each successive year (p=0.02). However, we were unable to detect evidence that the 'Healthy and Safe Tribe' programme was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the unintentional injury mortality rate trend among indigenous persons (p=0.81). Taiwanese indigenous communities remain at significantly higher risk of unintentional injury death, though the gap may be slowly narrowing. We found no evidence that the 'Healthy and Safe Tribe' indigenous injury-prevention programme significantly contributed to the nationwide decline in unintentional injury mortality among indigenous Taiwanese communities from 2009 to 2013. Future interventions to address the disproportionate burden of unintentional injury fatalities among indigenous Taiwanese should consider interventions with wider coverage of the indigenous population, and complementing grass roots led community-based interventions with structural policy interventions as well. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K; Smit, Ben

2015-01-01

We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning. PMID:27293732

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States.

PubMed

Molloy, Raven; Smith, Christopher L; Wozniak, Abigail

2017-04-01

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979.

PubMed

Sweet, J A; Rindfuss, R R

1983-01-01

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.

Genital warts in young Australians five years into national human papillomavirus vaccination programme: national surveillance data.

PubMed

Ali, Hammad; Donovan, Basil; Wand, Handan; Read, Tim R H; Regan, David G; Grulich, Andrew E; Fairley, Christopher K; Guy, Rebecca J

2013-04-18

To measure the effect on genital warts of the national human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Australia, which started in mid-2007. Trend analysis of national surveillance data. Data collated from eight sexual health services from 2004 to 2011; the two largest clinics also collected self reported human papillomavirus vaccination status from 2009. Between 2004 and 2011, 85,770 Australian born patients were seen for the first time; 7686 (9.0%) were found to have genital warts. Rate ratios comparing trends in proportion of new patients diagnosed as having genital warts in the pre-vaccination period (2004 to mid-2007) and vaccination period (mid-2007 to the end of 2011). Large declines occurred in the proportions of under 21 year old (92.6%) and 21-30 year old (72.6%) women diagnosed as having genital warts in the vaccination period-from 11.5% in 2007 to 0.85% in 2011 (P<0.001) and from 11.3% in 2007 to 3.1% in 2011 (P<0.001), respectively. No significant decline in wart diagnoses was seen in women over 30 years of age. Significant declines occurred in proportions of under 21 year old (81.8%) and 21-30 year old (51.1%) heterosexual men diagnosed as having genital warts in the vaccination period-from 12.1% in 2007 to 2.2% in 2011 (P<0.001) and from 18.2% in 2007 to 8.9% in 2011 (P<0.001), respectively. No significant decline in genital wart diagnoses was seen in heterosexual men over 30 years of age. In 2011 no genital wart diagnoses were made among 235 women under 21 years of age who reported prior human papillomavirus vaccination. The significant declines in the proportion of young women found to have genital warts and the absence of genital warts in vaccinated women in 2011 suggests that the human papillomavirus vaccine has a high efficacy outside of the trial setting. Large declines in diagnoses of genital warts in heterosexual men are probably due to herd immunity.

Temporal trends in dietary supplement prescriptions of United States military service members suggest a decrease in pyridoxine and increase in vitamin D supplements from 2005 to 2013.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; T Jean, Rosenie; Austin, Krista G; Steelman, Ryan A; Gannon, Julia; Farina, Emily K; Lieberman, Harris R

2016-10-01

Dietary supplements (DSs) can be obtained over-the-counter but can also be prescribed by health-care providers for therapeutic reasons. Few studies have documented this later source despite the fact that 79% of physicians and 82% of nurses have recommended DSs to patients. This investigation assessed prevalence and temporal trends in oral DS prescriptions filled by all United States service members (SMs) from 2005 to 2013 (n = 1 427 080 ± 22 139, mean ± standard deviation (SD)/y). We hypothesize that there would be temporal variations in specific types of DSs. Data obtained from Department of Defense Pharmacy Data Transaction System were grouped by American Hospital Formulary System pharmacologic-therapeutic classifications and prevalence examined over time. About 11% of SMs filled one or more DS prescriptions of 235 180 ± 4926 (mean ± SD) prescriptions/y over the 9-year period. Curve-fitting techniques indicated significant linear declines over time for multivitamins (P = .004), iron preparations (P < .001), antacids (P < .001), and vitamin B and B complex vitamins (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends indicating a rise in early years followed by a leveling off in later years for replacement preparations (P < .001) and vitamin C (P < .001). There were significant quadratic trends (P < .001) for vitamin E indicating a decline in early years and leveling off in later years, and vitamin D indicating little change in early years followed by a large rise subsequently (P < .001). This study identified temporal trends in specific DS categories that may be associated with changing perceptions of prescribers and/or patients of the appropriate roles of DSs in medicine and public health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Longitudinal trends with improvement in quality of life after TVT, TVT O and Burch colposuspension procedures.

PubMed

Drahoradova, Petra; Martan, Alois; Svabik, Kamil; Zvara, Karel; Otava, Martin; Masata, Jaromir

2011-02-01

Comparison of the quality of life (QoL) trends after TVT, TVT O and Burch colposuspension (BCS) procedures and comparison of long-term subjective and objective outcomes. The study included 215 women who underwent a TVT, TVT O or BCS procedure. We monitored QoL after each procedure and the effect of complications on the QoL as assessed by the IQOL questionnaire over a 3-year period. The study was completed by 74.5% of women after TVT, 74.5% after TVT O, and 65.2% after BCS procedure. In the long-term, the QoL improved from 46.9 to 88.7 and remained stable after BCS; after TVT and TVT O, it declined, but only after TVT O was the decline statistically significant compared to BCS. The IQOL for women with post-operative complications has a clear descending tendency. The effect of the complications is highly significant (p<0.001). Only the OAB complication had a statistically significant effect on QoL p<0.001. Preexistent OAB does not negatively affect postoperative results of anti-incontinence surgery. There was a statistically significant decline with the longitudinal values of IQOL with TVT O, but not with TVT or BCS. Anti-incontinence operations significantly improve quality of life for women with MI, but compared to the SI group, the quality of life is worse when measured at a longer time interval after the operation. Anti-incontinence operations significantly improve quality of life, and the difference in preoperative status in the long-term follow-up is demonstrable.

Responses of streamflow and sediment load to climate change and human activity in the Upper Yellow River, China: a case of the Ten Great Gullies Basin.

PubMed

Liu, Tong; Huang, He Qing; Shao, Mingan; Yao, Wenyi; Gu, Jing; Yu, Guoan

2015-01-01

Soil erosion and land desertification are the most serious environmental problems globally. This study investigated the changes in streamflow and sediment load from 1964 to 2012 in the Ten Great Gullies area of the Upper Yellow River. Tests for gradual trends (Mann-Kendall test) and abrupt changes (Pettitt test) identify that significant declines in streamflow and sediment load occurred in 1997-1998 in two typical gullies. A comparison of climatic variability before and after the change points shows no statistically significant trends in annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Human activities have been very active in the region and during 1990-2010, 146.01 and 197.62 km2 of land were converted, respectively, to forests and grassland, with corresponding increases of 87.56 and 77.05%. In addition, a large number of check dams have been built up in the upper reaches of the ten gullies. These measures were likely responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow and sediment load over the last 49 years.

Suicide mortality trends in the Nordic countries 1980-2009.

PubMed

Titelman, David; Oskarsson, Høgni; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Nordentoft, Merete; Mehlum, Lars; Jiang, Guo-Xin; Erlangsen, Annette; Nrugham, Latha; Wasserman, Danuta

2013-12-01

The Nordic countries provide a suitable setting for comparing trends in suicide mortality. The aim of this report is to compare suicide trends by age, gender, region and methods in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden 1980-2009. Suicide statistics 1980-2009 were analyzed for men and women aged 15 years and above and the age group 15-24 years. Regional suicide rates in 2009 were presented in maps. The suicide rates across the Nordic countries declined from 25-50 per 100,000 in 1980 to 20-36 in 2009 for men and from 9-26 in 1980 to 8-11 in 2009 for women. The rates in Finland were consistently higher than those of the other countries. A significant increase of suicides in young women in Finland and Norway and a lack of a decline among young women in Sweden were noted. The male- female ratio of suicide converged to approximately 3:1 across the region during the study period. Rural areas in Finland, Norway and Sweden saw the highest suicide rates, whereas the rates in the capital regions of Denmark, Norway and Sweden were lower than the respective national rates. We hold that the overall decline of suicide rates in the Nordic countries reflects the socio-economic development and stability of the region, including the well-functioning healthcare. The increasing rates in Finland and Norway and the unchanged rate in Sweden of suicide in young women are an alarming trend break that calls for continued monitoring.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

Statistical power for detecting trends with applications to seabird monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatch, Shyla A.

2003-01-01

Power analysis is helpful in defining goals for ecological monitoring and evaluating the performance of ongoing efforts. I examined detection standards proposed for population monitoring of seabirds using two programs (MONITOR and TRENDS) specially designed for power analysis of trend data. Neither program models within- and among-years components of variance explicitly and independently, thus an error term that incorporates both components is an essential input. Residual variation in seabird counts consisted of day-to-day variation within years and unexplained variation among years in approximately equal parts. The appropriate measure of error for power analysis is the standard error of estimation (S.E.est) from a regression of annual means against year. Replicate counts within years are helpful in minimizing S.E.est but should not be treated as independent samples for estimating power to detect trends. Other issues include a choice of assumptions about variance structure and selection of an exponential or linear model of population change. Seabird count data are characterized by strong correlations between S.D. and mean, thus a constant CV model is appropriate for power calculations. Time series were fit about equally well with exponential or linear models, but log transformation ensures equal variances over time, a basic assumption of regression analysis. Using sample data from seabird monitoring in Alaska, I computed the number of years required (with annual censusing) to detect trends of -1.4% per year (50% decline in 50 years) and -2.7% per year (50% decline in 25 years). At ??=0.05 and a desired power of 0.9, estimated study intervals ranged from 11 to 69 years depending on species, trend, software, and study design. Power to detect a negative trend of 6.7% per year (50% decline in 10 years) is suggested as an alternative standard for seabird monitoring that achieves a reasonable match between statistical and biological significance.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology.

PubMed

Shahgedanova, Maria; Lamakin, Mikhail

2005-04-01

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1980s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high AOD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Advances in development reverse fertility declines.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C

2009-08-06

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

Water quality trends in New Zealand rivers: 1989-2009.

PubMed

Ballantine, Deborah J; Davies-Colley, Robert J

2014-03-01

Recent assessments of water quality in New Zealand have indicated declining trends, particularly in the 40 % of the country's area under pasture. The most comprehensive long-term and consistent water quality dataset is the National Rivers Water Quality Network (NRWQN). Since 1989, monthly samples have been collected at 77 NRWQN sites on 35 major river systems that, together, drain about 50 % of New Zealand's land area. Trend analysis of the NRWQN data shows increasing nutrient concentrations, particularly nitrogen (total nitrogen and nitrate), over 21 years (1989-2009). Total nitrogen and nitrate concentrations were increasing significantly over the first 11 years (1989-2000), but for the more recent 10-year period, only nitrate concentrations continued to increase sharply. Also, the increasing phosphorus trends over the first 11 years (1989-2000) levelled off over the later 10-year period (2000-2009). Conductivity has also increased over the 21 years (1989-2009). Visual clarity has increased over the full time period which may be the positive result of soil conservation measures and riparian fencing. NRWQN data shows that concentrations of nutrients increase, and visual clarity decreases (i.e. water quality declines), with increasing proportions of pastoral land in catchments. As such, the increasing nutrient trends may reflect increasing intensification of pastoral agriculture.

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

Treesearch

Zhaofei Fan; Xiuli Fan; Michael K. Crosby; W. Keith Moser; Hong He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley

2012-01-01

At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and...

Analysis of trends in streamflow and its linkages with rainfall and anthropogenic factors in Gomti River basin of North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abeysingha, N. S.; Singh, Man; Sehgal, V. K.; Khanna, Manoj; Pathak, Himanshu

2016-02-01

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables such as streamflow, rainfall, and temperature provides useful information for effective water resources planning, designing, and management. Trends in observed streamflow at four gauging stations in the Gomti River basin of North India were assessed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope for the 1982 to 2012 period. The relationships between trends in streamflow and rainfall were studied by correlation analyses. There was a gradual decreasing trend of annual, monsoonal, and winter seasonal streamflow ( p < 0.05) from the midstream to the downstream of the river and also a decreasing trend of annual streamflow for the 5-year moving averaged standardized anomalies of streamflow for the entire basin. The declining trend in the streamflow was attributed partly to the increased water withdrawal, to increased air temperature, to higher population, and partly to significant reducing trend of post monsoon rainfall especially at downstream. Upstream gauging station showed a significant increasing trend of streamflow (1.6 m3/s/year) at annual scale, and this trend was attributed to the significant increasing trend of catchment rainfall (9.54 mm/year). It was further evident in the significant coefficient of positive correlation ( ρ = 0.8) between streamflow and catchment rainfall. The decreasing trend in streamflow and post-monsoon rainfall especially towards downstream area with concurrent increasing trend of temperature indicates a drying tendency of the Gomti River basin over the study period. The results of this study may help stakeholders to design streamflow restoration strategies for sustainable water management planning of the Gomti River basin.

Political Trends Affecting Nonmetropolitan America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nachtigal, Paul M.

There are two stories about political trends affecting nonmetropolitan America. The old story, which is the story of declining rural population and declining rural influence on public policy formation, has its roots in early deliberations about governance in this country. Jefferson's republicanism focused on direct citizen involvement in decision…

Recent water quality trends in a typical semi-arid river with a sharp decrease in streamflow and construction of sewage treatment plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Peng; Li, Xuyong; Su, Jingjun; Hao, Shaonan

2018-01-01

Identification of the interactive responses of water quantity and quality to changes in nature and human stressors is important for the effective management of water resources. Many studies have been conducted to determine the influence of these stressors on river discharge and water quality. However, there is little information about whether sewage treatment plants can improve water quality in a region where river streamflow has decreased sharply. In this study, a seasonal trend decomposition method was used to analyze long-term (1996-2015) and seasonal trends in the streamflow and water quality of the Guanting Reservoir Basin, which is located in a semi-arid region of China. The results showed that the streamflow in the Guanting Reservoir Basin decreased sharply from 1996-2000 due to precipitation change and human activities (human use and reservoir regulation), while the streamflow decline over the longer period of time (1996-2015) could be attributed to human activities. During the same time, the river water quality improved significantly, having a positive relationship with the capacity of wastewater treatment facilities. The water quality in the Guanting Reservoir showed a deferred response to the reduced external loading, due to internal loading from sediments. These results implied that for rivers in which streamflow has declined sharply, the water quality could be improved significantly by actions to control water pollution control. This study not only provides useful information for water resource management in the Guanting Reservoir Basin, but also supports the implementation of water pollution control measures in other rivers with a sharp decline in streamflow.

Breast cancer incidence rates in U.S. women are no longer declining.

PubMed

DeSantis, Carol; Howlader, Nadia; Cronin, Kathleen A; Jemal, Ahmedin

2011-05-01

Several publications reported breast cancer incidence rates continued to decrease among white women, following the decline of about 7% from 2002 to 2003. However, none of these reports exclusively examined the trend after 2003. In this paper, we examined breast cancer incidence rates among non-Hispanic (NH) white women from 2003 to 2007 to determine whether the decrease in breast cancer incidence rates indeed persisted through 2007. In addition, we present breast cancer incidence trends for NH black and Hispanic women and postmenopausal hormone use for all three racial/ethnic groups. Breast cancer incidence rates were calculated by race/ethnicity, age and ER status using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 12 registries for 2000 to 2007. Prevalence of postmenopausal hormone use was calculated using National Health Interview Survey data from 2000, 2005, and 2008. From 2003 to 2007, overall breast cancer incidence rates did not change significantly among NH white women in any age group. However, rates increased (2.7% per year) for ER+ breast cancers in ages 40 to 49, and decreased for ER- breast cancers in ages 40 to 49 and 60 to 69. Similarly, overall breast cancer incidence rates did not change significantly for black and Hispanic women. Hormone use continued to decrease from 2005 to 2008 in all groups, although the decreases were smaller compared to those from 2000 to 2005. The sharp decline in breast cancer incidence rates that occurred from 2002 to 2003 among NH white women did not continue through 2007. Further studies are needed to better understand the recent breast cancer trends. ©2011 AACR.

Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 1: legacy organochlorine contaminants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Legacy organochlorine contaminants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Of 19 major legacy contaminants and congeners (ΣPCB, 4 PCB congeners (CB153, 180, 170/190), ΣDDT, p,p'-DDE, p,p' -DDD and p,p'-DDT, α- and β-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), HCB, octachlorostyrene, dieldrin, oxychlordane, cis- and trans-chlordane, cis- and trans-nonachlor, heptachlor epoxide and BB-153), 18 showed statistically significant average yearly declines of -4.4% (range: -2.0 to -10.8%/year) among subadult polar bears (i.e. females<5years, males<6years). For example, the ∑PCB concentrations declined 2.7 fold from 22730ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 12470-32990ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 8473ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 6369-9776ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Despite declines as a result of international regulations, relatively high levels of these historic pollutants persist in East Greenland polar bear tissues. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CALIFORNIA, ANNUAL FARM LABOR REPORT, 1961.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LENHART, MARGOT W.

STATISTICAL TRENDS AND GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS IN DIFFERENT AREAS TO AID DIFFERENT TYPES OF FARMERS WERE PRESENTED. BETWEEN 1960 AND 1961, CALIFORNIA'S OVERALL CROP PRODUCTION ROSE BY ALMOST ONE PERCENT, WHILE TOTAL ACREAGE HARVESTED AND VALUE OF PRODUCTION DECLINED SLIGHTLY. FARMING UNDERWENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. MORE MACHINES AND…

Influence of changing travel patterns on child death rates from injury: trend analysis.

PubMed Central

DiGuiseppi, C.; Roberts, I.; Li, L.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in child mortality from unintentional injury between 1985 and 1992 and to find how changes in modes of travel contributed to these trends. DESIGN: Poisson regression modelling using data from death certificates, censuses, and national travel surveys. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Resident children aged 0-14. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths from unintentional injury and poisoning. RESULTS: Child deaths from injury declined by 34% (95% confidence interval 28% to 40%) per 100,000 population between 1985 and 1992. Substantial decreases in each of the leading causes of death from injury contributed to this overall decline. On average, children walked and cycled less distance and travelled substantially more miles by car in 1992 compared with 1985. Deaths from road traffic accidents declined for pedestrians by 24% per mile walked and for cyclists by 20% per mile cycled, substantially less than the declines per 100,000 population of 37% and 38% respectively. In contrast, deaths of occupants of motor vehicles declined by 42% per mile travelled by car compared with a 21% decline per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: If trends in child mortality from injury continue the government's target to reduce the rate by 33% by the year 2005 will be achieved. A substantial proportion of the decline in pedestrian traffic and pedal cycling deaths, however, seems to have been achieved at the expense of children's walking and cycling activities. Changes in travel patterns may exact a considerable price in terms of future health problems. PMID:9116546

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongqiang; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L; McVicar, Tim R; Chiew, Francis H S; Vaze, Jai; Liu, Changming; Lu, Xingjie; Zheng, Hongxing; Wang, Yingping; Liu, Yi Y; Miralles, Diego G; Pan, Ming

2016-01-11

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981-2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yongqiang; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; McVicar, Tim R.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Vaze, Jai; Liu, Changming; Lu, Xingjie; Zheng, Hongxing; Wang, Yingping; Liu, Yi Y.; Miralles, Diego G.; Pan, Ming

2016-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle. PMID:26750505

Interannual Change Detection of Mediterranean Seagrasses Using RapidEye Image Time Series

PubMed Central

Traganos, Dimosthenis; Reinartz, Peter

2018-01-01

Recent research studies have highlighted the decrease in the coverage of Mediterranean seagrasses due to mainly anthropogenic activities. The lack of data on the distribution of these significant aquatic plants complicates the quantification of their decreasing tendency. While Mediterranean seagrasses are declining, satellite remote sensing technology is growing at an unprecedented pace, resulting in a wealth of spaceborne image time series. Here, we exploit recent advances in high spatial resolution sensors and machine learning to study Mediterranean seagrasses. We process a multispectral RapidEye time series between 2011 and 2016 to detect interannual seagrass dynamics in 888 submerged hectares of the Thermaikos Gulf, NW Aegean Sea, Greece (eastern Mediterranean Sea). We assess the extent change of two Mediterranean seagrass species, the dominant Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa, following atmospheric and analytical water column correction, as well as machine learning classification, using Random Forests, of the RapidEye time series. Prior corrections are necessary to untangle the initially weak signal of the submerged seagrass habitats from satellite imagery. The central results of this study show that P. oceanica seagrass area has declined by 4.1%, with a trend of −11.2 ha/yr, while C. nodosa seagrass area has increased by 17.7% with a trend of +18 ha/yr throughout the 5-year study period. Trends of change in spatial distribution of seagrasses in the Thermaikos Gulf site are in line with reported trends in the Mediterranean. Our presented methodology could be a time- and cost-effective method toward the quantitative ecological assessment of seagrass dynamics elsewhere in the future. From small meadows to whole coastlines, knowledge of aquatic plant dynamics could resolve decline or growth trends and accurately highlight key units for future restoration, management, and conservation. PMID:29467777

Interannual Change Detection of Mediterranean Seagrasses Using RapidEye Image Time Series.

PubMed

Traganos, Dimosthenis; Reinartz, Peter

2018-01-01

Recent research studies have highlighted the decrease in the coverage of Mediterranean seagrasses due to mainly anthropogenic activities. The lack of data on the distribution of these significant aquatic plants complicates the quantification of their decreasing tendency. While Mediterranean seagrasses are declining, satellite remote sensing technology is growing at an unprecedented pace, resulting in a wealth of spaceborne image time series. Here, we exploit recent advances in high spatial resolution sensors and machine learning to study Mediterranean seagrasses. We process a multispectral RapidEye time series between 2011 and 2016 to detect interannual seagrass dynamics in 888 submerged hectares of the Thermaikos Gulf, NW Aegean Sea, Greece (eastern Mediterranean Sea). We assess the extent change of two Mediterranean seagrass species, the dominant Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa , following atmospheric and analytical water column correction, as well as machine learning classification, using Random Forests, of the RapidEye time series. Prior corrections are necessary to untangle the initially weak signal of the submerged seagrass habitats from satellite imagery. The central results of this study show that P. oceanica seagrass area has declined by 4.1%, with a trend of -11.2 ha/yr, while C. nodosa seagrass area has increased by 17.7% with a trend of +18 ha/yr throughout the 5-year study period. Trends of change in spatial distribution of seagrasses in the Thermaikos Gulf site are in line with reported trends in the Mediterranean. Our presented methodology could be a time- and cost-effective method toward the quantitative ecological assessment of seagrass dynamics elsewhere in the future. From small meadows to whole coastlines, knowledge of aquatic plant dynamics could resolve decline or growth trends and accurately highlight key units for future restoration, management, and conservation.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

PubMed

Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V; Feldman, Richard E; King, David I

2017-04-01

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in esophageal cancer mortality in China during 1987-2009: age, period and birth cohort analyzes.

PubMed

Guo, Pi; Li, Ke

2012-04-01

Esophageal cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study was to provide the representative and comprehensive informations about the long-term mortality trends of this disease in China between 1987 and 2009, using joinpoint regression and generalized additive models (GAMs). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated using the direct calculation method, and joinpoint regression was performed to obtain the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). GAMs were fitted to study the effects of age, period and birth cohort on mortality trends. ASMR exhibited an overall remarked decline for rural females (EAPC=-2.3 95%CI: -3.3, -1.2), urban males (EAPC=-1.8 95%CI: -2.6, -1.0) and urban females (EAPC=-3.7 95%CI: -4.9, -2.4), but a small drop observed was not statistically significant for rural males (EAPC=-0.9 95%CI: -2.0, 0.3). The declines in ASMR were more noticeable for urban residents in recent years. Among all the residents, age effect showed an progressively increasing trend, whereas cohort effect declined steadily after the year corresponding to the maximum risk value. Period effect seemed to remain substantially unchanged throughout the years. Although variations in mortality rates were observed according to sex and area, the overall decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality were found in most Chinese people, aside from rural males. The findings could correspond to the changes in age- and cohort-related factors in the population. Further study is required to understand these potential factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal epidemiology of microfilaraemia among migrant workers entering Kuwait

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Saeed; Mohammad, Hameed GHH; Michael, Edwin

2008-01-01

Background There is paucity of published data on the microfilarial infection among migrants from endemic countries entering Kuwait. The primary objectives of this study were to use routine health surveillance data to i) to estimate the prevalence of microfilarial infection in migrant workers to Kuwait and ii) to determine the occurrence of any time trends in the proportions of microfilaria positives among these workers over the recent past. Methods Monthly aggregates of microfilaria thick slide test results obtained from routine health examinations of migrant workers conducted at the Ports and Border Health Division of Ministry of Health, Kuwait between January 1, 1992 and December 31, 2006, were available for trend analysis of these time series data. Results During the study period, the prevalence (per 100,000) of microfilaraemia positive migrant workers was 48 (1169/2449360). A third-order polynomial regression model of monthly proportions of microfilaraemic workers revealed a significant initial increase (βˆ1 = 2.976 (± 0.157); P < 0.001), followed by a significant declining trend (βˆ2 = -0.0358 (± 0.002); P < 0.001) and a slight but significant upward trend (βˆ3 = 0.0001 (± < 0.001); P < 0.001) towards the end of study period. Conclusion This study showed a recent steady but apparently asymptotic decline in the prevalence of microfilarial infection in migrant workers from filarial endemic countries to Kuwait. This may reflect either changes in the socio-economic backgrounds of recent migrants or the effects of recently initiated mass drug administration programs carried out in the endemic countries of origin. PMID:18710477

Pulmonary Embolism Mortality in Brazil from 1989 to 2010: Gender and Regional Disparities.

PubMed

Darze, Eduardo Sahade; Casqueiro, Juliana Borges; Ciuffo, Luisa Allen; Santos, Jessica Mendes; Magalhães, Iuri Resedá; Latado, Adriana Lopes

2016-01-01

A significant variation in pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality trends have been documented around the world. We investigated the trends in mortality rate from PE in Brazil over a period of 21 years and its regional and gender differences. Using a nationwide database of death certificate information we searched for all cases with PE as the underlying cause of death between 1989 and 2010. Population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We calculated age-, gender- and region-specific mortality rates for each year, using the 2000 Brazilian population for direct standardization. Over 21 years the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) fell 31% from 3.04/100,000 to 2.09/100,000. In every year between 1989 and 2010, the ASMR was higher in women than in men, but both showed a significant declining trend, from 3.10/100,000 to 2.36/100,000 and from 2.94/100,000 to 1.80/100,000, respectively. Although all country regions showed a decline in their ASMR, the largest fall in death rates was concentrated in the highest income regions of the South and Southeast Brazil. The North and Northeast regions, the lowest income areas, showed a less marked fall in death rates and no distinct change in the PE mortality rate in women. Our study showed a reduction in the PE mortality rate over two decades in Brazil. However, significant variation in this trend was observed amongst the five country regions and between genders, pointing to possible disparities in health care access and quality in these groups.

Testing the hypothesis of accelerated cerebral white matter aging in schizophrenia and major depression.

PubMed

Kochunov, Peter; Glahn, David C; Rowland, Laura M; Olvera, Rene L; Winkler, Anderson; Yang, Yi-Hong; Sampath, Hemalatha; Carpenter, Will T; Duggirala, Ravindranath; Curran, Joanne; Blangero, John; Hong, L Elliot

2013-03-01

Elevated rate of aging-related biological and functional decline, termed "accelerated aging," is reported in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) and major depressive disorder (MDD). We used diffusion tensor imaging derived fractional anisotropy (FA) as a biomarker of aging-related decline in white matter (WM) integrity to test the hypotheses of accelerated aging in SCZ and MDD. The SCZ cohort comprised 58 SCZ patients and 60 controls (aged 20-60 years). The MDD cohort comprised 136 MDD patients and 351 controls (aged 20-79 years). The main outcome measures were the diagnosis-by-age interaction on whole-brain-averaged WM FA values and FA values from 12 major WM tracts. Diagnosis-by-age interaction for the whole-brain average FA was significant for the SCZ (p = .04) but not the MDD (p = .80) cohort. Diagnosis-by-age interaction was nominally significant (p<.05) for five WM tracts for SCZ and for none of the tracts in the MDD cohort. Tract-specific heterochronicity of the onset of age-related decline in SCZ demonstrated strong negative correlations with the age-of-peak myelination and the rates of age-related decline obtained from normative sample (r =-.61 and-.80, p<.05, respectively). No such trends existed for MDD cohort. Cerebral WM showed accelerated aging in SCZ but not in MDD, suggesting some difference in the pathophysiology underlying their WM aging changes. Tract-specific heterochronicity of WM development modulated presentation of accelerated aging in SCZ: WM tracts that matured later in life appeared more sensitive to the pathophysiology of SCZ and demonstrated more susceptibility to disorder-related accelerated decline in FA values with age. This trend was not observed in MDD cohort. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing the hypothesis of accelerated cerebral white matter aging in schizophrenia and major depression

PubMed Central

Kochunov, P.; Glahn, D.C.; Rowland, L.M.; Olvera, R.L.; Winkler, A; Yang, Y.H.; Sampath, H.; Carpenter, W.T.; Dugarrila, R.; Curran, J.; Blangero, J.; Hong, L.E.

2012-01-01

Introduction Elevated rate of aging-related biological and functional decline, termed accelerated aging, is reported in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) and major depressive disorder (MDD). We used diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) derived fractional anisotropy (FA) as biomarkers of aging-related decline in white matter (WM) integrity to test the hypotheses of accelerated aging in SCZ and MDD. Methods The SCZ cohort was composed of 58/60 SCZ patients/controls (age=20–60years). MDD cohort was composed of 136/351 MDD patients/controls (age=20–79years). Main outcome measures were the diagnosis-by-age interaction on whole-brain-averaged WM FA values and FA values from twelve major WM tracts. Results Diagnosis-by-age interaction for the whole-brain average FA was significant for the SCZ (p=0.04) but not in MDD cohort (p=0.80). Diagnosis-by-age interaction was nominally significant (p<0.05) for five WM tracts for SCZ and for none of the tracts in the MDD cohort. Tract-specific heterochronicity of the onset of age-related decline in SCZ demonstrated strong negative correlations with the age-of- peak myelination and the rates of age-related decline obtained from normative sample (r=−0.61 and −0.80, p<0.05, respectively). No such trends existed for MDD cohort. Conclusion Cerebral WM showed accelerated aging in SCZ but not in MDD, suggesting some difference in the pathophysiology underlying their WM aging changes. Tract-specific heterochronicity of WM development modulated presentation of accelerated aging in SCZ: white matter tracts that matured later in life appeared more sensitive to the pathophysiology of SCZ and demonstrated more susceptibility to disorder-related accelerated decline in FA values with age. This trend was not observed in MDD cohort. PMID:23200529

Is fertility falling in Zimbabwe?

PubMed

Udjo, E O

1996-01-01

With an unequalled contraceptive prevalence rate in sub-Saharan Africa, of 43% among currently married women in Zimbabwe, the Central Statistical Office (1989) observed that fertility has declined sharply in recent years. Using data from several surveys on Zimbabwe, especially the birth histories of the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines fertility trends in Zimbabwe. The results show that the fertility decline in Zimbabwe is modest and that the decline is concentrated among high order births. Multivariate analysis did not show a statistically significant effect of contraception on fertility, partly because a high proportion of Zimbabwean women in the reproductive age group never use contraception due to prevailing pronatalist attitudes in the country.

What's on the Horizon? Trends Impacting Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corey, Del; And Others

Major national trends and their effects on the future of education are examined. Demographic events that affected schools include the postwar baby boom and the migration from the Northeast to the sunbelt region. Factors affecting the college curriculum include: (1) enrollment projections, (2) decline in literacy, (3) decline in mathematics and…

Sectoral Trends in World Employment and the Shift toward Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wieczorek, Jaroslaw

1995-01-01

Review of statistical data confirms worldwide trends: growth in services, decline in agriculture, and, in manufacturing, decline in industrialized economies but growth in developing ones. Although services are characterized by low productivity growth, certain types (such as research and development) exert positive influence on economic growth. (SK)

Incidence of stroke in women in Auckland, New Zealand. Ethnic trends over two decades: 1981-2003.

PubMed

Dyall, Lorna; Carter, Kristie; Bonita, Ruth; Anderson, Craig; Feigin, Valery; Kerse, Ngaire; Brown, Paul

2006-11-17

Although women have a greater lifetime risk of stroke than men, along with other gender differences in stroke, there is lack of reliable data on long-term trends in stroke in women. This paper presents the results of three population-based registers in Auckland (1981-1982, 1991-1992, and 2002-2003) which aimed to determine the trends in the incidence of stroke in New Zealand. This paper reports on the burden of stroke in women across different ethnic groups over the study period from 1981 to 2003. Three studies using similar methodology and overlapping case finding methods have been conducted in New Zealand to estimate trends in the incidence and outcome of stroke. The studies are recognised as meeting the 'ideal' criteria for stroke incidence and identify all first-ever and recurrent strokes in residents (aged greater than and equal to 15 years) the population of Auckland, New Zealand in the 12-month periods from 1981-1982, 1991-1992, and 2002-2003. There were totals of 307,578 strokes among women in 1981, 372,642 in 1991, and 470,727 in 2001, according to each Census representing over 50% of the population at each period (51%-54%). The WHO standard world population was used for direct age standardisation of annual rates (per 100,000 population), reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The proportion of women who have experienced a stroke did not change markedly over the study period but there were ethnic differences emerging which were related to population changes within the New Zealand population. Standardised stroke incidence in women was relatively stable across the three study periods (1981-1982), 133 [95% CI 118-151]; (1991-1992), 143 [95% CI 116-241]; and (2002-2003), 124 [95% CI 115-134]). However, a significant decline of 14% (95% CI 2%-29%) in rates of first-ever stroke was found between 1991-1992 and 2002-2003 in women. In contrast to the significant declines in event rates in European women over two decades (Rate ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.96), increasing trends in event rates in Pacific women were observed (2.71 95% CI 1.00-7.29). The rate of stroke for Maori women did not change significantly over time. Over half of the women who had a stroke event reported that they had high blood pressure; one in four reported that they had diabetes. The proportion of women who smoked declined over time but increases in body mass index (BMI) indicated weight gains in women over time. These trends were consistent across ethnic groups. Women's survival after 1 month following their stroke has improved by 39% (p<0.0001) over the 20-year period. Favourable changes in early survival were most pronounced in European women. There was a modest decline in stroke incidence in women (overall and for New Zealand European women in particular) in Auckland over the past 20 years but there also was a trend towards increasing stroke incidence in Maori, Pacific, and Asian women. These divergent trends are likely to be associated with different trends in the prevalence of risk factors in these ethnic populations. Targeted stroke prevention programmes are needed in New Zealand to meet the needs of specific ethnic groups as well as the needs of providing ongoing care and support to women following their stroke.

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, S. Fred

1990-01-01

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

PubMed Central

Hammett, Theodore M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Kling, Ryan; Kieu, Binh Thanh; McNicholl, Janet M.; Wasinrapee, Punneeporn; McDougal, J. Stephen; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Meng, Donghua; Huu Nguyen, Tho; Ngoc Hoang, Quyen; Van Hoang, Tren

2012-01-01

Introduction HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China. Methods Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples. Results We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months. Discussion This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication. PMID:22952640

Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

2017-08-01

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at -3.88%/decade and -4.37%/decade, respectively, compared to an average of -4.36%/decade and -4.57%/decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.