Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

2009-03-01

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.

Scarcity of ecosystem services: an experimental manipulation of declining pollination rates and its economic consequences for agriculture.

PubMed

Sandhu, Harpinder; Waterhouse, Benjamin; Boyer, Stephane; Wratten, Steve

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services (ES) such as pollination are vital for the continuous supply of food to a growing human population, but the decline in populations of insect pollinators worldwide poses a threat to food and nutritional security. Using a pollinator (honeybee) exclusion approach, we evaluated the impact of pollinator scarcity on production in four brassica fields, two producing hybrid seeds and two producing open-pollinated ones. There was a clear reduction in seed yield as pollination rates declined. Open-pollinated crops produced significantly higher yields than did the hybrid ones at all pollination rates. The hybrid crops required at least 0.50 of background pollination rates to achieve maximum yield, whereas in open-pollinated crops, 0.25 pollination rates were necessary for maximum yield. The total estimated economic value of pollination services provided by honeybees to the agricultural industry in New Zealand is NZD $1.96 billion annually. This study indicates that loss of pollination services can result in significant declines in production and have serious implications for the market economy in New Zealand. Depending on the extent of honeybee population decline, and assuming that results in declining pollination services, the estimated economic loss to New Zealand agriculture could be in the range of NZD $295-728 million annually.

Scarcity of ecosystem services: an experimental manipulation of declining pollination rates and its economic consequences for agriculture

PubMed Central

Waterhouse, Benjamin; Wratten, Steve

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services (ES) such as pollination are vital for the continuous supply of food to a growing human population, but the decline in populations of insect pollinators worldwide poses a threat to food and nutritional security. Using a pollinator (honeybee) exclusion approach, we evaluated the impact of pollinator scarcity on production in four brassica fields, two producing hybrid seeds and two producing open-pollinated ones. There was a clear reduction in seed yield as pollination rates declined. Open-pollinated crops produced significantly higher yields than did the hybrid ones at all pollination rates. The hybrid crops required at least 0.50 of background pollination rates to achieve maximum yield, whereas in open-pollinated crops, 0.25 pollination rates were necessary for maximum yield. The total estimated economic value of pollination services provided by honeybees to the agricultural industry in New Zealand is NZD $1.96 billion annually. This study indicates that loss of pollination services can result in significant declines in production and have serious implications for the market economy in New Zealand. Depending on the extent of honeybee population decline, and assuming that results in declining pollination services, the estimated economic loss to New Zealand agriculture could be in the range of NZD $295–728 million annually. PMID:27441108

Can selective migration explain why health is worse in regions with population decline?: A study on migration and self-rated health in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Aletta; Kibele, Eva U B; Verweij, Antonia; van der Lucht, Fons; Janssen, Fanny

2015-12-01

Health disparities between population declining and non-declining areas have received little attention, even though population decline is an established phenomenon in Europe. Selective migration, in which healthier people move out of deprived areas, can possibly explain worse health in declining regions. We assessed whether selective migration can explain the observed worse average health in declining regions as compared with non-declining regions in the Netherlands. Combining data from the Dutch Housing and Living Survey held in 2002 and 2006 with Dutch registry data, we studied the relation between health status and migration in a 5-year period at the individual level by applying logistic regression. In our sample of 130,600 participants, we compared health status, demographic and socioeconomic factors of movers and stayers from declining and non-declining regions. People in the Netherlands who migrated are healthier than those staying behind [odds ratio (OR): 1.80]. This effect is larger for persons moving out of declining regions (OR: 1.76) than those moving into declining regions (OR: 1.47). When controlled for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, these effects are not significant. Moreover, only a small part of the population migrates out of (0.29%) or into (0.25%) declining regions in the course of 5 years. Despite the relation between health and migration, the effect of selective migration on health differences between declining and non-declining regions in the Netherlands is small. Both health and migration are complexly linked with socioeconomic and demographic factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Deforestation contributed to droughts that influenced Maya decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-12-01

New studies show that deforestation throughout much of southern Mexico in pre-Columbian times contributed to droughts that led to the decline of the Maya and Aztec civilizations. Significant droughts are known to have affected these civilizations between about 800 and 950 C.E.; it has been debated whether solar forcing, random natural variability, or clearing of rain forests to create pasture or farmlands primarily caused these droughts. Reconstructions of past land cover can be made based on population estimates. Central America was significantly deforested by Maya and Aztec societies before Europeans arrived about 1500 C.E. Forest then recovered as native populations declined, although more deforestation has been taking place in recent years.

Evidence that disease-induced population decline changes genetic structure and alters dispersal patterns in the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Lachish, S; Miller, K J; Storfer, A; Goldizen, A W; Jones, M E

2011-01-01

Infectious disease has been shown to be a major cause of population declines in wild animals. However, there remains little empirical evidence on the genetic consequences of disease-mediated population declines, or how such perturbations might affect demographic processes such as dispersal. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) has resulted in the rapid decline of the Tasmanian devil, Sarcophilus harrisii, and threatens to cause extinction. Using 10 microsatellite DNA markers, we compared genetic diversity and structure before and after DFTD outbreaks in three Tasmanian devil populations to assess the genetic consequences of disease-induced population decline. We also used both genetic and demographic data to investigate dispersal patterns in Tasmanian devils along the east coast of Tasmania. We observed a significant increase in inbreeding (FIS pre/post-disease −0.030/0.012, P<0.05; relatedness pre/post-disease 0.011/0.038, P=0.06) in devil populations after just 2–3 generations of disease arrival, but no detectable change in genetic diversity. Furthermore, although there was no subdivision apparent among pre-disease populations (θ=0.005, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.003 to 0.017), we found significant genetic differentiation among populations post-disease (θ=0.020, 0.010–0.027), apparently driven by a combination of selection and altered dispersal patterns of females in disease-affected populations. We also show that dispersal is male-biased in devils and that dispersal distances follow a typical leptokurtic distribution. Our results show that disease can result in genetic and demographic changes in host populations over few generations and short time scales. Ongoing management of Tasmanian devils must now attempt to maintain genetic variability in this species through actions designed to reverse the detrimental effects of inbreeding and subdivision in disease-affected populations. PMID:20216571

Patterns of Senescence in Human Cardiovascular Fitness: VO2max in Subsistence and Industrialized Populations

PubMed Central

Pisor, Anne C.; Gurven, Michael; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Kaplan, Hillard; Yetish, Gandhi

2014-01-01

Objectives This study explores whether cardiovascular fitness levels and senescent decline are similar in the Tsimane of Bolivia and Canadians, as well as other subsistence and industrialized populations. Among Tsimane, we examine whether morbidity predicts lower levels and faster decline of cardiovascular fitness, or whether their lifestyle (e.g., high physical activity) promotes high levels and slow decline. Alternatively, high activity levels and morbidity might counterbalance such that Tsimane fitness levels and decline are similar to those in industrialized populations. Methods Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was estimated using a step test heart rate method for 701 participants. We compared these estimates to the Canadian Health Measures Survey and previous studies in industrialized and subsistence populations. We evaluated whether health indicators and proxies for market integration were associated with VO2max levels and rate of decline for the Tsimane. Results The Tsimane have significantly higher levels of VO2max and slower rates of decline than Canadians; initial evidence suggests differences in VO2max levels between other subsistence and industrialized populations. Low hemoglobin predicts low VO2max for Tsimane women while helminth infection predicts high VO2max for Tsimane men, though results might be specific to the VO2max scaling parameter used. No variables tested interact with age to moderate decline. Conclusions The Tsimane demonstrate higher levels of cardiovascular fitness than industrialized populations, but levels similar to other subsistence populations. The high VO2max of Tsimane is consistent with their high physical activity and few indicators of cardiovascular disease, measured in previous studies. PMID:24022886

Advances in development reverse fertility declines.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C

2009-08-06

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

Genetic variation in insecticide tolerance in a population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala): Implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, C.M.; Semlitsch, R.D.

2001-01-01

Currently, conservation efforts are devoted to determining the extent and the causes of the decline of many amphibian species worldwide. Human impacts frequently degrade amphibian habitat and have been implicated in many declines. Because genetic variance is critical in determining the persistence of a species in a changing environment, we examined the amount of genetic variability present in a single population for tolerance to an environmental stressor. We examined the amount of genetic variability among full- and half-sib families in a single population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala) with respect to their tolerance to lethal concentrations of the agricultural chemical, carbaryl. Analysis of time-to-death data indicated significant differences among full-sib families and suggests a large amount of variability present in the responses to this environmental stressor. Significant differences in responses among half-sib families indicated that there is additive genetic variance. These data suggest that this population may have the ability to adapt to environmental stressors. It is possible that declines of amphibian populations in the western United States may be attributed to low genetic variability resulting from limited migration among populations and small population sizes.

Declining populations of the fingernail clam Musculium transversum in the upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, D.M.; Naimo, T.J.; Weiner, J.G.; Anderson, R.V.; Sandheinrich, M.B.; Sparks, Richard E.

1995-01-01

We examined recent temporal trends in the abundance of fingernail clams Musculium transversum (formerly Sphaerium transversum) in the upper Mississippi River. Historical data on densities of fingernail clams were obtained from regional scientists and published literature. We also sampled benthos in six navigation pools in summer 1991, finding very few fingernail clams. The combined data set, including historical data and sampling results, extended from 1973 to 1992 and was sufficient to statistically evaluate trends in densities of fingernail clams in eight pools. Populations of fingernail clams declined significantly in five of the eight pools examined (Pools 2, 5, 7, 9, and 19), which spanned a 700-km reach of river from St. Paul, Minnesota, to Keokuk, Iowa. Densities in Pool 19, which had the longest historical record on fingernail clam abundance, averaged 30 000 m super(-2) in 1985 and progressively declined to zero in 1990. Combined data from all eight pools showed a significant decline in abundance of fingernail clams. An evaluation of potential causal factors led us to hypothesize that the population declines in Pools 2 to 9 were linked to point-source pollution rather than to dredging activity or commercial navigation traffic. In Pool 19, the declines of fingernail clams may have resulted from low-flow conditions during drought periods, but the causal mechanisms by which low flow influences fingernail clam abundance are unclear. The decrease in fingernail clam populations may adversely affect certain fish and wildlife, such as migrating lesser scaup Aythya affinis, which feed heavily on the small mollusk. Moreover, the decreases in populations of this pollution-sensitive mollusk may signal a large-scale deterioration in the health of this riverine ecosystem.

Declining estimates of infertility in the United States: 1982-2002.

PubMed

Stephen, Elizabeth Hervey; Chandra, Anjani

2006-09-01

To determine if the decline in infertility has been uniform across subgroups. Periodic data from the National Fertility Survey and the National Survey of Family Growth were used to determine which factors contributed to the decline in 12-month infertility in the United States. National Survey of Family Growth, a periodic US nationally representative study. A nationally representative sample of married women aged 15-44 years, N = 15,303 for pooled data across 4 survey years. None. Estimates of infertility prevalence among married women aged 15-44 years. The decline in 12-month infertility in the United States from 8.5% in 1982 and 7.4% in 2002 was significant. This decline was evident in nearly all subgroups of married women. In the multivariate analysis, 12-month infertility was more likely among women who were older and nulliparous, were non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, and did not have a college degree. The decline in 12-month infertility was observed even after controlling for the compositional differences of the population over time. Among married women in the United States, there has been a significant decline in 12-month infertility, which cannot be explained by changes in the composition of the population from 1982-2002.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

PubMed

DeVivo, Melia T; Edmunds, David R; Kauffman, Matthew J; Schumaker, Brant A; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J; Richards, Bryan J; Schätzl, Hermann M; Cornish, Todd E

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

PubMed Central

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schätzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd E.

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations. PMID:29049389

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Age, gender, and voided volume dependency of peak urinary flow rate and uroflowmetry nomogram in the Indian population

PubMed Central

Kumar, Vikash; Dhabalia, Jayesh V.; Nelivigi, Girish G.; Punia, Mahendra S.; Suryavanshi, Manav

2009-01-01

Objectives: The objective of this study was measurement of urine flow parameters by a non invasive urodynamic test. Variation of flow rates based on voided volume, age, and gender are described. Different nomograms are available for different populations and racial differences of urethral physiology are described. Currently, there has been no study from the Indian population on uroflow parameters. So the purpose of this study was to establish normal reference ranges of maximum and average flow rates, to see the influence of age, gender, and voided volume on flow rates, and to chart these values in the form of a nomogram. Methods: We evaluated 1,011 uroflowmetry tests in different age groups in a healthy population (healthy relatives of our patients) 16-50 year old males, >50 year old males, 5-15 year old children, and >15 year pre-menopausal and post-menopausal females. The uroflowmetry was done using the gravitimetric method. Flow chart parameters were analyzed and statistical calculations were used for drawing uroflow nomograms. Results: Qmax values in adult males were significantly higher than in the elderly and Qmax values in young females were significantly higher than in young males. Qmax values in males increased with age until 15 years old; followed by a slow decline until reaching 50 years old followed by a rapid decline after 50 years old even after correcting voided volume. Qmax values in females increased with age until they reached age 15 followed by decline in flow rate until a pre-menopausal age followed by no significant decline in post-menopausal females. Qmax values increased with voided volume until 700 cc followed by a plateau and decline. Conclusions: Qmax values more significantly correlated with age and voided volume than Qavg. Nomograms were drawn in centile form to provide normal reference ranges. Qmax values in our population were lower than described in literature. Patients with voided volume up to 50 ml could be evaluated with a nomogram. PMID:19955668

Latin America: how a region surprised the experts.

PubMed

De Sherbinin, A

1993-02-01

In 1960-1970, family planning specialists and demographers worried that poverty, limited education, Latin machismo, and strong catholic ideals would obstruct family planning efforts to reduce high fertility in Latin America. It had the highest annual population growth rate in the world (2.8%), which would increase the population 2-fold in 25 years. Yet, the UN's 1992 population projection for Latin America and the Caribbean in the year 2000 was about 20% lower than its 1963 projection (just over 500 vs. 638 million). Since life expectancy increased simultaneously from 57 to 68 years, this reduced projection was caused directly by a large decline in fertility from 5.9 to 3. A regression analysis of 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries revealed that differences in the contraceptive prevalence rates accounted for 90% of the variation in the total fertility rate between countries. Thus, contraception played a key role in the fertility decline. The second most significant determinant of fertility decline was an increase in the average age at first marriage from about 20 to 23 years. Induced abortion and breast feeding did not contribute significantly to fertility decline. The major socioeconomic factors responsible for the decline included economic development and urbanization, resulting in improvements in health care, reduced infant and child mortality, and increases in female literacy, education, and labor force participation. Public and private family planning programs also contributed significantly to the decline. They expanded from cities to remote rural areas, thereby increasing access to contraception. By the early 1990s, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia had among the lowest levels of unmet need (13-24%) in developing countries. Other key factors of fertility decline were political commitment, strong communication efforts, and stress on quality services. Latin America provides hope to other regions where religion and culture promote a large family size.

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population: a 5-year prospective analysis.

PubMed

Fu, Shihui; Liu, Chunling; Luo, Leiming; Ye, Ping

2017-11-09

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to renal function decline are more significant in Chinese community-dwelling population without glomerular filtration rate (GFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and long-term prospective study is an optimal choice to explore this problem. Aim of this analysis was to observe this problem during the follow-up of 5 years. In a large medical check-up program in Beijing, there were 948 participants with renal function evaluated at baseline and follow-up of 5 years. Physical examinations were performed by well-trained physicians. Blood samples were analyzed by qualified technicians in central laboratory. Median rate of renal function decline was 1.46 (0.42-2.91) mL/min/1.73m 2 /year. Rapid decline of renal function had a prevalence of 23.5% (223 participants). Multivariate linear and Logistic regression analyses confirmed that age, sex, baseline GFR, homocysteine and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) had independently predictive abilities to renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p < 0.05 for all). High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), carotid femoral pulse wave velocity and central augmentation index had no statistically independent association with renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p > 0.05 for all). Homocysteine and NT-proBNP rather than hs-cTnT had independently predictive abilities to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population without GFR below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . Baseline GFR was an independent factor predicting the rapid decline of renal function. Arterial stiffness and compliance had no independent effect on rapid decline of renal function. This analysis has a significant implication for public health, and changing the homocysteine and NT-proBNP levels might slow the rapid decline of renal function.

Effect of root strength and soil saturation on hillslope stability in forests with natural cedar decline in headwater regions of SE Alaska.

Treesearch

Adelaide C. Johnson; Peter Wilcock

1998-01-01

A natural decline in the population of yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) is occurring in pristine southeast Alaska forests and may be the most significant forest decline in the western United States. The frequency of landslides in cedar decline areas is three times larger than in areas of healthy forest. Three regions are investigated in...

Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

PubMed

Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

2018-01-18

Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of extractable mineral resources, or various metrics of development and governance. Our results suggest that sustained conservation activity in conflict zones-and rapid interventions following ceasefires-may help to save many at-risk populations and species.

Survey trends of North American shorebirds: Population declines or shifting distributions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Brown, Stephen; Harrington, Brian A.; Morrison, R.I. Guy

2007-01-01

We analyzed data from two surveys of fall migrating shorebirds in central and eastern North America to estimate annual trends in means per survey and to determine whether trends indicate a change in population size or might have been caused by other factors. The analysis showed a broad decline in means per survey in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States (North Atlantic region). For example, 9 of 9 significant trends in this region were <1 (P=0.004), and the mean, annual rate of change among 30 species was 0.9783, a decline of −2.17% per year (P<0.001). Trends in the midwestern United States (Midwest region) showed no clear pattern. The mean among 29 species was 1.0090 (P=0.35). Only 4 of the trends were significant. Several hypotheses were evaluated to identify causes of the declining means per survey in the North Atlantic region. The most likely hypothesis appears to be a decline in the breeding populations that supply migrants to the North Atlantic region, but a change in movements, for example passing through the region more quickly in recent years, cannot be excluded as an explanation. Further surveys of arctic breeding areas coupled with analysis of long‐term survey data from western North America would be helpful in determining whether the declines found in this analysis are also occurring in other areas.

Characteristics of the population below the poverty level: 1984.

PubMed

Mcneil, J M

1986-06-01

This report presents detailed social and economic characteristics of the US population below the poverty level in 1984 based on the March 1985 Current Population Survey (CPS). Poverty data are cross-classified by such characteristics as race, family relationship, type of residence, education, work experience, and type of income received. The average poverty threshold for a family of 4 was $10,609 in 1984, compared with $10,178 in 1983. Reflecting the general improvement in the economy, the number of persons below the poverty level declined from 35.3 million in 1983 to 33.7 million in 1984. During the same period, the poverty rate fell from 15.2 to 14.4%. The decline in poverty was the 1st statistically significant decline since 1975-1976. The number of persons in poverty in 1977 was about the same as in 1976, but from 1978 to 1983, the number of poor persons increased from 24.5 to 35.3 million. The poverty rate declined for both whites and blacks between 1983 and 1984. The rate for whites dropped from 12.1 to 11.5%, and the rate for blacks fell from 35.7 to 33.8%. No statistically significant changes were recorded in the number or percentage of Spanish-origin persons in poverty. There was some evidence of a decline in the poverty rate among white children under 18 years old, but there were no significant changes in the rate among black or Spanish-origin children. Between 1983 and 1984, the total number of poor families declined as did the number of poor married-couple families. Among the 4 major regions, both the number of persons below the poverty level and the poverty rate declined in the South and West regions, while the Northeast and Midwest regions did not exprience any significant changes. The poverty rate for the South was 16.2%, higher than that of any other region.

A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

PubMed

Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

2008-07-01

Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species apparently were not able to switch to less preferred food plants when stable species were. This study shows that natural history collections can play an important role in improving our understanding of the ecological mechanisms driving species population change.

Decline of recent seabirds inferred from a composite 1000-year record of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Wu, Libin; Sun, Liguang; Zhao, Jinjun; Chen, Lin

2016-01-01

Based on three ornithogenic sediment profiles and seabird subfossils therein from the Xisha Islands, South China Sea, the relative population size of seabirds over the past 1000 years was reconstructed using reflectance spectrum. Here we present an apparent increase and subsequent decline of seabirds on these islands in the South China Sea. Seabird populations peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1850 AD), implying that the cool climate during the LIA appears to have been more favorable to seabirds on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Climate change partly explains the recent decrease in seabird populations over the past 150 years, but the significant decline and almost complete disappearance thereof on most of the Xisha Islands is probably attributable to human disturbance. Our study reveals the increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on seabird population in recent times. PMID:27748366

Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

PubMed Central

Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

2013-01-01

Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of populations with major data gaps, including offshore small cetaceans, cryptic species, and marine mammals in low latitudes and developing nations, is needed to better understand the status of marine mammal populations worldwide. PMID:24205025

Estimating relative decline in populations of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) due to baiting.

PubMed

Evans, T A

2001-12-01

Although mark-recapture protocols produce inaccurate population estimates of termite colonies, they might be employed to estimate a relative change in colony size. This possibility was tested using two Australian, mound-building, wood-eating, subterranean Coptotermes species. Three different toxicants delivered in baits were used to decrease (but not eliminate) colony size, and a single mark-recapture protocol was used to estimate pre- and postbaiting population sizes. For both species, the numbers of termites retrieved from bait stations varied widely, resulting in no significant differences in the numbers of termites sampled between treatments in either the pre- or postbaiting protocols. There were significantly fewer termites sampled in all treatments, controls included, in the postbaiting protocol compared with the pre-, suggesting a seasonal change in forager numbers. The comparison of population estimates shows a large decrease in toxicant treated colonies compared with little change in control colonies, which suggests that estimating the relative decline in population size using mark-recapture protocols might to be possible. However, the change in population estimate was due entirely to the significantly lower recapture rate in the control colonies relative to the toxicant treated colonies, as numbers of unmarked termites did not change between treatments. The population estimates should be treated with caution because low recapture rates produce dubious population estimates and, in some cases, postbaiting mark-recapture population estimates could be much greater than those at prebaiting, despite consumption of bait in sufficient quantities to cause population decline. A possible interaction between fat-stain markers and toxicants should be investigated if mark-recapture population estimates are used. Alternative methods of population change are advised, along with other indirect measures.

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific

PubMed Central

Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Tessier, Natacha; Karl, Stephan; Fola, Abebe; Darcy, Andrew W.; Wini, Lyndes; Harrison, G. L. Abby; Barnadas, Céline; Jennison, Charlie; Karunajeewa, Harin; Boyd, Sarah; Whittaker, Maxine; Kazura, James; Bahlo, Melanie; Mueller, Ivo

2018-01-01

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination. PMID:29373596

Population and geographic range dynamics: implications for conservation planning

PubMed Central

Mace, Georgina M.; Collen, Ben; Fuller, Richard A.; Boakes, Elizabeth H.

2010-01-01

Continuing downward trends in the population sizes of many species, in the conservation status of threatened species, and in the quality, extent and connectedness of habitats are of increasing concern. Identifying the attributes of declining populations will help predict how biodiversity will be impacted and guide conservation actions. However, the drivers of biodiversity declines have changed over time and average trends in abundance or distributional change hide significant variation among species. While some populations are declining rapidly, the majority remain relatively stable and others are increasing. Here we dissect out some of the changing drivers of population and geographic range change, and identify biological and geographical correlates of winners and losers in two large datasets covering local population sizes of vertebrates since 1970 and the distributions of Galliform birds over the last two centuries. We find weak evidence for ecological and biological traits being predictors of local decline in range or abundance, but stronger evidence for the role of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change. An improved understanding of the dynamics of threat processes and how they may affect different species will help to guide better conservation planning in a continuously changing world. PMID:20980321

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific.

PubMed

Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Tessier, Natacha; Karl, Stephan; Fola, Abebe; Darcy, Andrew W; Wini, Lyndes; Harrison, G L Abby; Barnadas, Céline; Jennison, Charlie; Karunajeewa, Harin; Boyd, Sarah; Whittaker, Maxine; Kazura, James; Bahlo, Melanie; Mueller, Ivo; Barry, Alyssa E

2018-01-01

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination.

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.

2012-01-01

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

Trophic cascades following the disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil.

PubMed

Hollings, Tracey; Jones, Menna; Mooney, Nick; McCallum, Hamish

2014-02-01

As apex predators disappear worldwide, there is escalating evidence of their importance in maintaining the integrity and diversity of the ecosystems they inhabit. The largest extant marsupial carnivore, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is threatened with extinction from a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD). The disease, first observed in 1996, has led to apparent population declines in excess of 95% in some areas and has spread to more than 80% of their range. We analyzed a long-term Tasmania-wide data set derived from wildlife spotlighting surveys to assess the effects of DFTD-induced devil decline on populations of other mammals and to examine the relative strength of top-down and bottom-up control of mesopredators between 2 regions with different environmental conditions. Collection of the data began >10 years before DFTD was first observed. A decrease in devil populations was immediate across diseased regions following DFTD arrival, and there has been no indication of population recovery. Feral cats (Felis catus) increased in areas where the disease was present the longest, and feral cat occurrence was significantly and negatively associated with devils. The smallest mesopredator, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus), declined rapidly following DFTD arrival. This result suggests the species was indirectly protected by devils through the suppression of larger predators. Rainfall deficiency was also a significant predictor of their decline. Environmental variables determined the relative importance of top-down control in the population regulation of mesopredators. In landscapes of low rainfall and relatively higher proportions of agriculture and human settlement, top-down forces were dampened and bottom-up forces had the most effect on mesopredators. For herbivore prey species, there was evidence of population differences after DFTD arrival, but undetected environmental factors had greater effects. The unique opportunity to assess population changes over extensive temporal and spatial scales following apex predator loss further demonstrated their role in structuring ecosystems and of productivity in determining the strength of top-down control. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

PubMed

Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

2018-04-01

The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in a sample of older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes.

PubMed

Bell, Tyler; Dávila, Ana Luisa; Clay, Olivio; Markides, Kyriakos S; Andel, Ross; Crowe, Michael

2017-08-01

Older Puerto Rican adults have particularly high risk of diabetes compared to the general US population. Diabetes is associated with both higher depressive symptoms and cognitive decline, but less is known about the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in those with diabetes. This study investigated the association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes over a four-year period. Households across Puerto Rico were visited to identify a population-based sample of adults aged 60 years and over for the Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions study (PREHCO); 680 participants with diabetes at baseline and no baseline cognitive impairment were included in analyses. Cognitive decline and depressive symptoms were measured using the Mini-Mental Cabán (MMC) and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively. We examined predictors of incident depressive symptoms (GDS ≥ 5 at follow-up but not baseline) and cognitive decline using regression modeling. In a covariate-adjusted logistic regression model, cognitive decline, female gender, and greater diabetes-related complications were each significantly associated with increased odds of incident depressive symptoms (p < 0.05). In a multiple regression model adjusted for covariates, incident depressive symptoms and older age were associated with greater cognitive decline, and higher education was related to less cognitive decline (p < 0.05). Incident depressive symptoms were more common for older Puerto Ricans with diabetes who also experienced cognitive decline. Efforts are needed to optimize diabetes management and monitor for depression and cognitive decline in this population.

Influence of hiking trails on montane birds

Treesearch

William V. Deluca; David I. King

2014-01-01

Montane forests contribute significantly to regional biodiversity. Long-term monitoring data, often located along hiking trails, suggests that several indicator species of this ecosystem have declined in recent decades. Declining montane bird populations have been attributed to anthropogenic stressors such as climate change and atmospheric deposition. Several studies...

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of winter flounder otoliths assess connectivity between juvenile and adult habitats

EPA Science Inventory

Winter flounder populations (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) have significantly declined in recent years along the Rhode Island, USA coastline. The reasons for this decline are not completely clear; however, habitat loss may be a factor. Therefore, knowledge of connectivity betwee...

APOE ε4 and the risk for Alzheimer disease and cognitive decline in African Americans and Yoruba

PubMed Central

Hendrie, Hugh C.; Murrell, Jill; Baiyewu, Olusegun; Lane, Kathleen A.; Purnell, Christianna; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Unverzagt, Frederick W.; Hall, Kathleen; Callahan, Christopher M.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Gureje, Oye; Hake, Ann; Foroud, Tatiana; Gao, Sujuan

2014-01-01

Background There is little information on the association of the APOEe4 allele and AD risk in African populations. In previous analyses from the Indianapolis-Ibadan dementia project, we have reported that APOE ε4 increased the risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in African Americans but not in Yoruba. This study represents a replication of this earlier work using enriched cohorts and extending the analysis to include cognitive decline. Methods In this longitudinal study of two community dwelling cohorts of elderly Yoruba and African Americans, APOE genotyping was conducted from blood samples taken on or before 2001 (1,871 African Americans & 2,200 Yoruba). Mean follow up time was 8.5 years for African Americans and 8.8 years for Yoruba. The effects of heterozygosity or homozygosity of ε4 and of the possession of e4 on time to incident AD and on cognitive decline were determined using Cox’s proportional hazards regression and mixed effects models. Results After adjusting for covariates, one or two copies of the APOE ε4 allele were significant risk factors for incident AD (p < 0.0001) and cognitive decline in the African-American population (p < 0001). In the Yoruba, only homozygosity for APOE ε4 was a significant risk factor for AD (p = 0.0002) but not for cognitive decline (p = 0.2346), however, possession of an e4 allele was significant for both incident AD (p = 0.0489) and cognitive decline (p = 0.0425). Conclusions In this large longitudinal comparative study, APOE ε4 had a significant, but weaker, effect on incident AD and on cognitive decline in Yoruba than in African Americans. The reasons for these differences remain unclear. PMID:24565289

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Schroeder, Barbara A.; Foley, Allen M.; Witherington, Blair E.; Bresette, Michael; Clark, David; Herren, Richard M.; Arendt, Michael D.; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Provancha, Jane A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Lamont, Margaret M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Bolten, Alan B.

2013-01-01

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.

Declining Fertility and the Use of Cesarean Delivery: Evidence from a Population-Based Study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Ma, Ke-Zong M; Norton, Edward C; Lee, Shoou-Yih D

2010-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that declining fertility would affect the number of cesarean sections (c-sections) on maternal demand, but not medically indicated c-sections. Data Sources The 1996–2004 National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan for all singleton deliveries. Study Design Retrospective population-based, longitudinal study. Estimation was performed using multinomial probit models. Principal Findings Results revealed that declining fertility had a significant positive effect on the probability of having a c-section on maternal request but not medically indicated c-section. Conclusions Our findings offer a precautionary note to countries experiencing a fertility decline. Policies to contain the rise of c-sections should understand the role of women's preferences, especially regarding cesarean deliveries on maternal request. PMID:20545781

Adiponectin is not associated with renal function decline in community-dwelling elderly adults.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Hiroki; Otsuka, Hiromasa; Yanai, Mitsuru; Haketa, Akira; Hara, Motohiko; Hishiki, Mikano; Abe, Masanori; Soma, Masayoshi

2018-05-01

Adiponectin secreted by adipocytes plays an important role in the regulation of glucose and fatty acid metabolism. Contrary to findings in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), no prospective data about the association of serum adiponectin with renal function decline in the general population have yet appeared. Our objective was to analyze the relationship of total and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin with renal function decline as measured by cystatin C in community-dwelling elderly adults without moderate or severe CKD.In a prospective observational analysis, a total of 216 healthy elderly volunteers with eGFRcys ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m underwent anthropometric and laboratory tests at baseline and at follow-up visits. A subgroup with serum samples collected 5 years apart was further analyzed.There were no differences in either total or HMW adiponectin level between subjects subsequently undergoing rapid renal function decline and subjects with normal physiologic renal function decline (P = .71, P = .81). On univariate linear regression, neither total nor HMW adiponectin were associated with annual renal function decline (β = -0.23; P = .71, β = -0.057; P = .90). Multivariate analysis did not show a significant contribution of either total or HMW adiponectin to annual renal function decline (β = -0.50; P = .46, β = 0.01; P = .98). In the logistic regression analysis, we did not observe any statistically significant association of serum adiponectin levels with rapid renal function decline or incidence of CKD.Contrary to findings in populations with CKD, neither total nor HMW adiponectin had a substantial association with renal function decline in an elderly population with eGFRcys ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m. Our results and conclusions should not be extrapolated to subjects with other characteristics.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Big city Bombus: using natural history and land-use history to find significant environmental drivers in bumble-bee declines in urban development.

PubMed

Glaum, Paul; Simao, Maria-Carolina; Vaidya, Chatura; Fitch, Gordon; Iulinao, Benjamin

2017-05-01

Native bee populations are critical sources of pollination. Unfortunately, native bees are declining in abundance and diversity. Much of this decline comes from human land-use change. While the effects of large-scale agriculture on native bees are relatively well understood, the effects of urban development are less clear. Understanding urbanity's effect on native bees requires consideration of specific characteristics of both particular bee species and their urban landscape. We surveyed bumble-bee ( Bombus spp.) abundance and diversity in gardens across multiple urban centres in southeastern Michigan. There are significant declines in Bombus abundance and diversity associated with urban development when measured on scales in-line with Bombus flight ability. These declines are entirely driven by declines in females; males showed no response to urbanization. We hypothesize that this is owing to differing foraging strategies between the sexes, and it suggests reduced Bombus colony density in more urban areas. While urbanity reduced Bombus prevalence, results in Detroit imply that 'shrinking cities' potentially offer unique urban paradigms that must be considered when studying wild bee ecology. Results show previously unidentified differences in the effects of urbanity on female and male bumble-bee populations and suggest that urban landscapes can be managed to support native bee conservation.

Big city Bombus: using natural history and land-use history to find significant environmental drivers in bumble-bee declines in urban development

PubMed Central

Simao, Maria-Carolina; Vaidya, Chatura; Fitch, Gordon; Iulinao, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Native bee populations are critical sources of pollination. Unfortunately, native bees are declining in abundance and diversity. Much of this decline comes from human land-use change. While the effects of large-scale agriculture on native bees are relatively well understood, the effects of urban development are less clear. Understanding urbanity's effect on native bees requires consideration of specific characteristics of both particular bee species and their urban landscape. We surveyed bumble-bee (Bombus spp.) abundance and diversity in gardens across multiple urban centres in southeastern Michigan. There are significant declines in Bombus abundance and diversity associated with urban development when measured on scales in-line with Bombus flight ability. These declines are entirely driven by declines in females; males showed no response to urbanization. We hypothesize that this is owing to differing foraging strategies between the sexes, and it suggests reduced Bombus colony density in more urban areas. While urbanity reduced Bombus prevalence, results in Detroit imply that ‘shrinking cities’ potentially offer unique urban paradigms that must be considered when studying wild bee ecology. Results show previously unidentified differences in the effects of urbanity on female and male bumble-bee populations and suggest that urban landscapes can be managed to support native bee conservation. PMID:28573023

Decline in a population of spectacled eiders nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Dau, Christian; Babcock, Christopher

1994-01-01

The number of spectacled eiders nesting on two study areas near the Kashunuk River, on the central Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, Alaska, declined by over 75% in the last 20 years. Nesting densities have remained low, but have not significantly declined since 1985. There has been no decrease in the reproductive effort of individual females as indicated by average clutch sizes. There has been a significant decline in the proportion of nests located on islands on one of the two study areas. Nesting success declined significantly during the 1970's. Success was not monitored in recent years, but has likely been low, based on the poor nesting success and declining numbers of cackling Canada geese and black brant nesting on the area. Nest predation by arctic foxes severely limited the productivity of cackling Canada geese, and foxes were likely the major predators of eider nests. Persistent high predation rates may lead to local extirpation in highly philopatric species such as eiders.

Changes in smoking prevalence and number of cigarettes smoked per day following the implementation of a comprehensive tobacco control plan in New York City.

PubMed

Coady, Micaela H; Jasek, John; Davis, Karen; Kerker, Bonnie; Kilgore, Elizabeth A; Perl, Sarah B

2012-10-01

The New York City (NYC) Health Department has implemented a comprehensive tobacco control plan since 2002, and there was a 27% decline in adult smoking prevalence in NYC from 2002 to 2008. There are conflicting reports in the literature on whether residual smoker populations have a larger or smaller share of "hardcore" smokers. Changes in daily consumption and daily and nondaily smoking prevalence, common components used to define hardcore smokers, were evaluated in the context of the smoking prevalence decline. Using the NYC Community Health Survey, an annual random digit dial, cross-sectional survey that samples approximately 10,000 adults, the prevalence of current heavy daily, light daily, and nondaily smokers among NYC adults was compared between 2002 and 2008. A five-level categorical cigarettes per day (CPD) variable was also used to compare the population of smokers between the 2 years. From 2002 to 2008, significant declines were seen in the prevalence of daily smoking, heavy daily smoking, and nondaily smoking. Among daily smokers, there is also evidence of population declines in all but the lowest smoking category (one to five CPD). The mean CPD among daily smokers declined significantly, from 14.6 to 12.5. After an overall decline in smoking since 2002, the remaining smokers may be less nicotine dependent, based on changes in daily consumption and daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. These findings suggest the need to increase media and cessation efforts targeted towards lighter smokers.

Declining Rotation Curves at z = 2 in ΛCDM Galaxy Formation Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teklu, Adelheid F.; Remus, Rhea-Silvia; Dolag, Klaus; Arth, Alexander; Burkert, Andreas; Obreja, Aura; Schulze, Felix

2018-02-01

Selecting disk galaxies from the cosmological, hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder, we show that almost half of our poster child disk galaxies at z = 2 show significantly declining rotation curves and low dark matter fractions, very similar to recently reported observations. These galaxies do not show any anomalous behavior, they reside in standard dark matter halos, and they typically grow significantly in mass until z = 0, where they span all morphological classes, including disk galaxies matching present-day rotation curves and observed dark matter fractions. Our findings demonstrate that declining rotation curves and low dark matter fractions in rotation-dominated galaxies at z = 2 appear naturally within the ΛCDM paradigm and reflect the complex baryonic physics, which plays a role at the peak epoch of star formation. In addition, we find some dispersion-dominated galaxies at z = 2 that host a significant gas disk and exhibit similar shaped rotation curves as the disk galaxy population, rendering it difficult to differentiate between these two populations with currently available observation techniques.

Population trends of Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plentovich, S.; Morton, J.M.; Bart, J.; Camp, R.J.; Lusk, M.; Johnson, N.; VanderWerf, E.

2005-01-01

Endemic to the islands of Guam and Rota in the Mariana Islands, Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi is the only corvid in Micronesia. Currently, it survives on Guam only because of translocation of individuals from Rota (1999-2003). Island-wide surveys in 1982 and 1995 on Rota yielded population estimates of 1,348 and 592 respectively, indicating a 56% decrease in only 13 years. A sharp decline in the only viable Mariana Crow population has serious implications for conservation efforts on Rota and for efforts to re-establish the Guam population. However, the validity of the apparent decline has been debated among scientists and government management agencies. We augmented the 1982 and 1995 island-wide VCP surveys with (1) an additional island-wide survey conducted in 1998, and (2) roadside surveys conducted during 1991-1993 and again during 1999-2002. We also outline historical changes in Rota's limestone forest based on aerial photographs and historical information. Data from all surveys indicate a significant decline in the Mariana Crow population. Declines occurred especially along the north-central coast and in the area east of the airport known as As Dudo in the 1990s, but the data indicate an island-wide decline over the entire span of the surveys. introduced predators, human persecution, and habitat loss and degradation by anthropogenic and natural causes have all contributed to the decline. Long-term preservation of this species will require effective brown treesnake Boiga irregularis control, habitat protection, continued monitoring and research, and increased public education and awareness of Rota's rare and endangered species. ?? BirdLife International 2005.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

Patterns of acoustical activity of bats prior to and following White-nose Syndrome occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ford, W. Mark; Britzke, Eric R.; Dobony, Christopher A.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Johnson, Joshua B.

2011-01-01

White-nose Syndrome (WNS), a wildlife health concern that has decimated cave-hibernating bat populations in eastern North America since 2006, began affecting source-caves for summer bat populations at Fort Drum, a U.S. Army installation in New York in the winter of 2007–2008. As regional die-offs of bats became evident, and Fort Drum's known populations began showing declines, we examined whether WNS-induced change in abundance patterns and seasonal timing of bat activity could be quantified using acoustical surveys, 2003–2010, at structurally uncluttered riparian–water habitats (i.e., streams, ponds, and wet meadows). As predicted, we observed significant declines in overall summer activity between pre-WNS and post-WNS years for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus, northern bats M. septentrionalis, and Indiana bats M. sodalis. We did not observe any significant change in activity patterns between pre-WNS and post-WNS years for big brown bats Eptesicus fuscus, eastern red bats Lasiurus borealis, or the small number of tri-colored bats Perimyotis subflavus. Activity of silver-haired bats Lasionycteris noctivagans increased from pre-WNS to post-WNS years. Activity levels of hoary bats Lasiurus cinereus significantly declined between pre- and post-WNS years. As a nonhibernating, migratory species, hoary bat declines might be correlated with wind-energy development impacts occurring in the same time frame rather than WNS. Intraseason activity patterns also were affected by WNS, though the results were highly variable among species. Little brown bats showed an overall increase in activity from early to late summer pre-WNS, presumably due to detections of newly volant young added to the local population. However, the opposite occurred post-WNS, indicating that reproduction among surviving little brown bats may be declining. Our data suggest that acoustical monitoring during the summer season can provide insights into species' relative abundance on the landscape as affected by the occurrence of WNS.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji

PubMed Central

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25–64 years. Methods Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Results Over 1980–2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980–2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Conclusions Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. Implications This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. PMID:27807124

Assessing the links among environmental contaminants, endocrinology, and parasites to understand amphibian declines in montane regions of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Leary, Christopher J; Ralicki, Hannah F; Laurencio, David; Crocker-Buta, Sarah; Malone, John H

2018-01-01

Amphibians inhabiting montane riparian zones in the Neotropics are particularly vulnerable to decline, but the reasons are poorly understood. Because environmental contaminants, endocrine disruption, and pathogens often figure prominently in amphibian declines it is imperative that we understand how these factors are potentially interrelated to affect montane populations. One possibility is that increased precipitation associated with global warming promotes the deposition of contaminants in montane regions. Increased exposure to contaminants, in turn, potentially elicits chronic elevations in circulating stress hormones that could contribute to montane population declines by compromising resistance to pathogens and/or production of sex steroids regulating reproduction. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining contaminant levels, stress and sex steroid levels, and nematode abundances in male drab treefrogs, Smilisca sordida, from lowland and montane populations in Costa Rica. We found no evidence that montane populations were more likely to possess contaminants (i.e., organochlorine, organophosphate and carbamate pesticides or benzidine and chlorophenoxy herbicides) than lowland populations. We also found no evidence of elevational differences in circulating levels of the stress hormone corticosterone, estradiol or progesterone. However, montane populations possessed lower androgen levels, hosted more nematode species, and had higher nematode abundances than lowland populations. Although these results suggested that nematodes contributed to lower androgens in montane populations, we were unable to detect a significant inverse relationship between nematode abundance and androgen level. Our results suggest that montane populations of this species are not at greater risk of exposure to contaminants or chronic stress, but implicate nematodes and compromised sex steroid levels as potential threats to montane populations.

Genetic association between human chitinases and lung function in COPD.

PubMed

Aminuddin, F; Akhabir, L; Stefanowicz, D; Paré, P D; Connett, J E; Anthonisen, N R; Fahy, J V; Seibold, M A; Burchard, E G; Eng, C; Gulsvik, A; Bakke, P; Cho, M H; Litonjua, A; Lomas, D A; Anderson, W H; Beaty, T H; Crapo, J D; Silverman, E K; Sandford, A J

2012-07-01

Two primary chitinases have been identified in humans--acid mammalian chitinase (AMCase) and chitotriosidase (CHIT1). Mammalian chitinases have been observed to affect the host's immune response. The aim of this study was to test for association between genetic variation in the chitinases and phenotypes related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Polymorphisms in the chitinase genes were selected based on previous associations with respiratory diseases. Polymorphisms that were associated with lung function level or rate of decline in the Lung Health Study (LHS) cohort were analyzed for association with COPD affection status in four other COPD case-control populations. Chitinase activity and protein levels were also related to genotypes. In the caucasian LHS population, the baseline forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) was significantly different between the AA and GG genotypic groups of the AMCase rs3818822 polymorphism. Subjects with the GG genotype had higher AMCase protein and chitinase activity compared with AA homozygotes. For CHIT1 rs2494303, a significant association was observed between rate of decline in FEV(1) and the different genotypes. In the African American LHS population, CHIT1 rs2494303 and AMCase G339T genotypes were associated with rate of decline in FEV(1). Although a significant effect of chitinase gene alleles was found on lung function level and decline in the LHS, we were unable to replicate the associations with COPD affection status in the other COPD study groups.

Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Selected Populations of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Stirling Ian

2006-01-01

Polar bears are dependent on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in coverage and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. In four populations of polar bears in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay), Inuit hunters report more bears near settlements during the open water period in recent years. These observations have been interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, resulting in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, and population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are declining, not increasing. While the details vary in different arctic regions, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery, beginning in the late 1970s, indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears in coastal communities is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources because their stored body fat depots are being exhausted. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the IPCC, then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be stressed and are likely to decline in numbers, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, there will likely also be continuing, possibly increasing, numbers of problem interactions between bears and humans as the bears seek alternate food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic.

A population-based study of the association between coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and cognitive decline: the Cache County study.

PubMed

Lyketsos, Constantine G; Toone, Leslie; Tschanz, Joann; Corcoran, Christopher; Norton, Maria; Zandi, Peter; Munger, Ron; Breitner, John C S; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen

2006-06-01

The relationship between coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and cognitive decline remains uncertain, in particular with regard to whether there is delayed cognitive decline associated with this procedure. This was a population-based cohort study involving participants in the Cache County Study of Memory Health and Aging. At baseline the study enrolled 5,092 persons age 65 and older and followed them up three years later and again four years after that. Individuals who reported having undergone CABG surgery at study baseline or had this surgery in between follow-up waves were compared to individuals who never reported having the surgery. The main outcome measure was the Modified Mini Mental State (3MS). Multilevel models were used to examine the relationship between CABG surgery and cognitive decline over time. Study participants who had CABG surgery evidenced 0.95 points of greater decline relative to baseline on the 3MS at the first follow-up interview after CABG, and an average of 1.9 points of greater decline at the second follow-up interview, than those without CABG (t = -2.51, df = 2,316, p = 0.0121), after adjusting for several covariates, including number of vascular conditions. This decline was restricted to individuals who were more than five years past the procedure and was not evident in the early years after the surgery. CABG surgery is associated with accelerated cognitive decline more than five years after the procedure in a long-lived population. This decline is small and its clinical significance is uncertain. We could not find an association between CABG and decline in the first five post-operative years.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K; Smit, Ben

2015-01-01

We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.

Ancient DNA reveals genetic stability despite demographic decline: 3,000 years of population history in the endemic Hawaiian petrel.

PubMed

Welch, Andreanna J; Wiley, Anne E; James, Helen F; Ostrom, Peggy H; Stafford, Thomas W; Fleischer, Robert C

2012-12-01

In the Hawaiian Islands, human colonization, which began approximately 1,200 to 800 years ago, marks the beginning of a period in which nearly 75% of the endemic avifauna became extinct and the population size and range of many additional species declined. It remains unclear why some species persisted whereas others did not. The endemic Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis) has escaped extinction, but colonies on two islands have been extirpated and populations on remaining islands have contracted. We obtained mitochondrial DNA sequences from 100 subfossil bones, 28 museum specimens, and 289 modern samples to investigate patterns of gene flow and temporal changes in the genetic diversity of this endangered species over the last 3,000 years, as Polynesians and then Europeans colonized the Hawaiian Islands. Genetic differentiation was found to be high between both modern and ancient petrel populations. However, gene flow was substantial between the extirpated colonies on Oahu and Molokai and modern birds from the island of Lanai. No significant reductions in genetic diversity occurred over this period, despite fears in the mid-1900s that this species may have been extinct. Simulations show that even a decline to a stable effective population size of 100 individuals would result in the loss of only 5% of the expected heterozygosity. Simulations also show that high levels of genetic diversity may be retained due to the long generation time of this species. Such decoupling between population size and genetic diversity in long-lived species can have important conservation implications. It appears that a pattern of dispersal from declining colonies, in addition to long generation time, may have allowed the Hawaiian petrel to escape a severe genetic bottleneck, and the associated extinction vortex, and persist despite a large population decline after human colonization.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning. PMID:27293732

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

PubMed Central

Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs. PMID:27783668

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

2006-01-01

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.

Seahorse (Hippocampinae) population fluctuations in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, south Portugal.

PubMed

Correia, M; Caldwell, I R; Koldewey, H J; Andrade, J P; Palma, J

2015-09-01

Comparisons of three sets of surveys in the Ria Formosa Lagoon, Portugal, over a 13 year period (2001-2002, 2008-2009 and 2010-2013) revealed significant population fluctuations in at least one of the two seahorse (Hippocampinae) species living there, and that those fluctuations were potentially associated with habitat changes in the lagoon. After a significant decline between the first two survey periods (2001-2002 v. 2008-2009), long-snouted seahorse Hippocampus guttulatus populations increased significantly between 2008-2009 surveys and new 2010-2013 surveys. There were no significant differences in H. guttulatus populations between the 2001-2002 and 2010-2013 surveys. In contrast, there were no significant differences in short-snouted seahorse Hippocampus hippocampus densities among the 16 sites surveyed throughout the three sampling periods, although the ability to detect any change was hampered by the low densities of this species in all time periods. Fluctuations in H. guttulatus densities were positively correlated with the percentage of holdfast coverage, but with none of the other environmental variables tested. These results highlight the importance of holdfast availability in maintaining stable seahorse populations. While population fluctuations are certainly more promising than a consistent downward decline, such extreme fluctuations observed for seahorses in the Ria Formosa Lagoon could still leave these two species vulnerable to any additional stressors, particularly during low density periods. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Antagonistic interactions between an invasive alien and a native coccinellid species may promote coexistence.

PubMed

Hentley, William T; Vanbergen, Adam J; Beckerman, Andrew P; Brien, Melanie N; Hails, Rosemary S; Jones, T Hefin; Johnson, Scott N

2016-07-01

Despite the capacity of invasive alien species to alter ecosystems, the mechanisms underlying their impact remain only partly understood. Invasive alien predators, for example, can significantly disrupt recipient communities by consuming prey species or acting as an intraguild predator (IGP). Behavioural interactions are key components of interspecific competition between predators, yet these are often overlooked invasion processes. Here, we show how behavioural, non-lethal IGP interactions might facilitate the establishment success of an invading alien species. We experimentally assessed changes in feeding behaviour (prey preference and consumption rate) of native UK coccinellid species (Adalia bipunctata and Coccinella septempunctata), whose populations are, respectively, declining and stable, when exposed to the invasive intraguild predator, Harmonia axyridis. Using a population dynamics model parameterized with these experimental data, we predicted how intraguild predation, accommodating interspecific behavioural interactions, might impact the abundance of the native and invasive alien species over time. When competing for the same aphid resource, the feeding rate of A. bipunctata significantly increased compared to the feeding in isolation, while the feeding rate of H. axyridis significantly decreased. This suggests that despite significant declines in the UK, A. bipunctata is a superior competitor to the intraguild predator H. axyridis. In contrast, the behaviour of non-declining C. septempunctata was unaltered by the presence of H. axyridis. Our experimental data show the differential behavioural plasticity of competing native and invasive alien predators, but do not explain A. bipunctata declines observed in the UK. Using behavioural plasticity as a parameter in a population dynamic model for A. bipunctata and H. axyridis, coexistence is predicted between the native and invasive alien following an initial period of decline in the native species. We demonstrate how empirical and theoretical techniques can be combined to understand better the processes and consequences of alien species invasions for native biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Taxonomic and geographic patterns of decline for threatened and endangered species in the United States.

PubMed

Leidner, Allison K; Neel, Maile C

2011-08-01

Species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (i.e., listed species) have declined to the point that the probability of their extinction is high. The decline of these species, however, may manifest itself in different ways, including reductions in geographic range, number of populations, or overall abundance. Understanding the pattern of decline can help managers assess extinction probability and define recovery objectives. Although quantitative data on changes in geographic range, number of populations, and abundance usually do not exist for listed species, more often qualitative data can be obtained. We used qualitative data in recovery plans for federally listed species to determine whether each listed species declined in range size, number of populations, or abundance relative to historical levels. We calculated the proportion of listed species in each state (or equivalent) that declined in each of those ways. Nearly all listed species declined in abundance, and range size or number of populations declined in approximately 80% of species for which those data were available. Patterns of decline, however, differed taxonomically and geographically. Declines in range were more common among vertebrates than plants, whereas population extirpations were more common among plants. Invertebrates had high incidence of range and population declines. Narrowly distributed plants and invertebrates may be subject to acute threats that may result in population extirpations, whereas vertebrates may be affected by chronic threats that reduce the extent and size of populations. Additionally, in the eastern United States and U.S. coastal areas, where the level of land conversion is high, a greater percentage of species' ranges declined and more populations were extirpated than in other areas. Species in the Southwest, especially plants, had fewer range and population declines than other areas. Such relations may help in the selection of species' recovery criteria. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Gait dyspraxia as a clinical marker of cognitive decline in Down syndrome: A review of theory and proposed mechanisms.

PubMed

Anderson-Mooney, Amelia J; Schmitt, Frederick A; Head, Elizabeth; Lott, Ira T; Heilman, Kenneth M

2016-04-01

Down syndrome (DS) is the most common genetic cause of intellectual disability in children. With aging, DS is associated with an increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). The development of AD neuropathology in individuals with DS can result in further disturbances in cognition and behavior and may significantly exacerbate caregiver burden. Early detection may allow for appropriate preparation by caregivers. Recent literature suggests that declines in gait may serve as an early marker of AD-related cognitive disorders; however, this relationship has not been examined in individuals with DS. The theory regarding gait dyspraxia and cognitive decline in the general population is reviewed, and potential applications to the population with individuals with DS are highlighted. Challenges and benefits in the line of inquiry are discussed. In particular, it appears that gait declines in aging individuals with DS may be associated with known declines in frontoparietal gray matter, development of AD-related pathology, and white matter losses in tracts critical to motor control. These changes are also potentially related to the cognitive and functional changes often observed during the same chronological period as gait declines in adults with DS. Gait declines may be an early marker of cognitive change, related to the development of underlying AD-related pathology, in individuals with DS. Future investigations in this area may provide insight into the clinical changes associated with development of AD pathology in both the population with DS and the general population, enhancing efforts for optimal patient and caregiver support and propelling investigations regarding safety/quality of life interventions and disease-modifying interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The brown-headed cowbird and its riparian-dependent hosts in New Mexico

Treesearch

Sara H. Schweitzer; Deborah M. Finch; David M Leslie

1998-01-01

Numbers of brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater) are increasing in some regions of North America, while certain populations of long-distance, neotropical migratory songbirds (NTMs) are declining. In the Southwestern United States, several species of NTMs nest only in riparian habitats. The significant decline of two species of NTMs dependent upon riparian habitat,...

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

2001-01-01

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

Evidence for aging theories from the study of a hunter-gatherer people (Ache of Paraguay).

PubMed

Libertini, G

2013-09-01

In the late seventies, a small tribal population of Paraguay, the Ache, living under natural conditions, was studied. Data from this population turn out to be useful for considerations about evolutionary hypotheses on the aging phenomenon. 1) Ache show an age-related increasing mortality, which strongly limits the mean duration of life, as observed in other studies on mammal and bird species. 2) According to current theories on aging, in the wild very few or no individual reach old age and, so, aging cannot be directly influenced by natural selection. However, data from our population show that a significant proportion of the population reaches in the wild 60 and 70 years of age. 3) Data from Ache are also in agreement with the observation about an inverse correlation between extrinsic mortality and deaths due to the age-related increasing mortality. 4) For many gerontologists, the age-related decline of vital functions is a consequence of the gradual decline of cell turnover, genetically determined and regulated by the declining duplication capacities of stem cells. The current interpretation is that these restrictions are a general defense against the proliferation of any tumoral mass. However, among wild Ache cancer is virtually unknown in non-elderly subjects, and only among older individuals are there deaths attributable to oncological diseases. Moreover, fitness decline begins long before oncological diseases have fatal effects in significant numbers. This completely disproves the current hypothesis, because a supposed defense against a deadly disease cannot exterminate a population before the disease begins to kill. These data are consistent with similar data from other species studied under natural conditions, and they bring new arguments against the non-adaptive interpretation of aging and in support of the adaptive interpretation.

Sources of health insurance and characteristics of the uninsured: analysis of the March 2007 Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Fronstin, Paul

2007-10-01

This Issue Brief provides historic data through 2006 on the number and percentage of nonelderly individuals with and without health insurance. Based on EBRI estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2007 Current Population Survey (CPS), it reflects 2006 data. It also discusses trends in coverage for the 1994-2006 period and highlights characteristics that typically indicate whether an individual is insured. HEALTH COVERAGE CONTINUES DECLINE: The percentage of the nonelderly population (under age 65) with health insurance coverage continued to decline, reaching to a post-1994 low of 82.1 percent in 2006. Declines in health insurance coverage have been recorded in all but four years since 1994, when 36.5 million nonelderly individuals were uninsured; in 2006, the uninsured population was 46.5 million. EMPLOYMENT-BASED COVERAGE REMAINS DOMINANT SOURCE OF HEALTH COVERAGE: Employment-based health benefits remain by far the most common form of health coverage in the United States, consistently covering 60-70 percent of nonelderly individuals. In 2006, 62.2 percent of the nonelderly population had employment-based health benefits, as compared with 64.4 percent in 1994. Between 1994 and 2000, the percentage of the nonelderly population with employment-based coverage expanded. Since 2000, the percentage has declined. PUBLIC PROGRAM COVERAGE IS STABLE: Public-sector health coverage was slightly lower as a percentage of the population in 2006, accounting for 17.5 percent of the nonelderly population. The decline was due to a drop in the percentage of the population covered by the Tricare/CHAMPVA program. Enrollment in Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program increased, reaching 34.9 million in 2006, and covering 13.4 percent of the nonelderly population, which is significantly above the 10.5 percent level of 1999, but not far above the 12.7 percent level of 1994. INDIVIDUAL COVERAGE STABLE: Individually purchased health coverage was unchanged in 2006 and has basically hovered in the high 6 and low 7 percent range since 1994. PRIVATE- VS. PUBLIC-COVERAGE TRENDS REVERSING: Health insurance coverage generally has not sustained unbroken trends since 1994. There were crosscurrents: Employment-based coverage expanded significantly in the 1994-2000 period to exceed the growth in public programs. Subsequently, the dynamic reversed, as public programs expanded while employment-based coverage declined. It appears that 2005 might be the beginning of a new trend, where the erosion in employment-based coverage is not being offset by expansions in public programs. This may be due to the fact that, while unemployment is relatively low, the cost of providing health benefits continues to increase faster than inflation.

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

Assessing the links among environmental contaminants, endocrinology, and parasites to understand amphibian declines in montane regions of Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Ralicki, Hannah F.; Laurencio, David; Crocker-Buta, Sarah

2018-01-01

Amphibians inhabiting montane riparian zones in the Neotropics are particularly vulnerable to decline, but the reasons are poorly understood. Because environmental contaminants, endocrine disruption, and pathogens often figure prominently in amphibian declines it is imperative that we understand how these factors are potentially interrelated to affect montane populations. One possibility is that increased precipitation associated with global warming promotes the deposition of contaminants in montane regions. Increased exposure to contaminants, in turn, potentially elicits chronic elevations in circulating stress hormones that could contribute to montane population declines by compromising resistance to pathogens and/or production of sex steroids regulating reproduction. Here, we test this hypothesis by examining contaminant levels, stress and sex steroid levels, and nematode abundances in male drab treefrogs, Smilisca sordida, from lowland and montane populations in Costa Rica. We found no evidence that montane populations were more likely to possess contaminants (i.e., organochlorine, organophosphate and carbamate pesticides or benzidine and chlorophenoxy herbicides) than lowland populations. We also found no evidence of elevational differences in circulating levels of the stress hormone corticosterone, estradiol or progesterone. However, montane populations possessed lower androgen levels, hosted more nematode species, and had higher nematode abundances than lowland populations. Although these results suggested that nematodes contributed to lower androgens in montane populations, we were unable to detect a significant inverse relationship between nematode abundance and androgen level. Our results suggest that montane populations of this species are not at greater risk of exposure to contaminants or chronic stress, but implicate nematodes and compromised sex steroid levels as potential threats to montane populations. PMID:29324824

Effect of preserved and preservative-free timolol eye drops on tear film stability in healthy Africans

PubMed Central

Ilechie, Alex; Abokyi, Samuel; Boateng, Gifty; Koffuor, George Asumeng

2016-01-01

Background: Preserved versus nonpreserved formulations for ophthalmic use have been well described in the literature although not specifically in the African population where beta blockers are frequently used as the first-line therapy due to economic and availability issues. This study sought to determine the effect of preserved and preservative-free Timolol eye drops on tear film stability in healthy black Africans. Materials and Methods: Sixty healthy nondry eye subjects aged 19–25 years were randomly assigned into four groups (n = 15) and differently treated with eye drops of phosphate buffered saline (PBS), preservative-free timolol (PFT), benzalkonium chloride (BAK) only, and BAK-preserved timolol (BPT). Noninvasive tear break-up time (NITBUT) was measured using the keratometer at baseline and 30, 60, and 90 min after drop application. Results: No significant decline in NITBUT was observed following treatment with PFT and PBS. However, BAK treatment showed a positive time-dependent significant decline in NITBUT (P < 0.001) while a significant decline in the BPT-treated group was only found at 90 min (−3.52 s; P < 0.001). In comparison to the PFT-treated group, treatment with BAK and BPT showed significantly lower NITBUT (P < 0.001). Conclusion: BPT is associated with a significant decline in tear film stability in black Africans. This finding has implications in the management of glaucoma in patients with high-risk of dry eyes in this population. PMID:27226684

Trouble in the aquatic world: How wildlife professionals are battling amphibian declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Deanna H.; Chestnut, Tara E.

2014-01-01

A parasitic fungus, similar to the one that caused the extinction of numerous tropical frog and toad species, is killing salamanders in Europe. Scientists first identified the fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, in 2013 as the culprit behind the death of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands (Martel et al. 2013) and are now exploring its potential impact to other species. Although the fungus, which kills the amphibians by infecting their skin, has not yet spread to the United States, researchers believe it’s only a matter of time before it does and, when that happens, the impact on salamander populations could be devastating (Martel et al. 2014).Reports of worldwide declines of amphibians began a quarter of a century ago (Blaustein & Wake 1990). Globally, some amphibian population declines occurred in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and declining trends continued in North America (Houlahan et al. 2000). In the earlier years, population declines were attributed primarily to overharvest due to unregulated supply of species such as the northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) for educational use (Dodd 2013). In later years, however, causes of declines were less evident. In 1989, herpetologists at the First World Congress of Herpetology traded alarming stories of losses across continents and in seemingly protected landscapes, making it clear that amphibian population declines were a “global phenomenon.” In response to these reports, in 1991, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) established the Declining Amphibian Populations Task Force to better understand the scale and scope of global amphibian declines. Unfortunately, the absence of long-term monitoring data and targeted studies made it difficult for the task force to compile information.Today, according to AmphibiaWeb.org, there are 7,342 amphibian species in the world — double the number since the first alerts of declines — making the situation appear deceptively less dire. In fact, our understanding of genetic diversity significantly raises the stakes, and we are at risk of losing far more species than we believed only a few years ago. According to the IUCN, amphibians now lead the list of vertebrate taxa affected by the larger “biodiversity crisis” and sixth major mass- extinction event on Earth (Keith et al. 2014, Wake and Vredenburg 2008).

Removal of nonnative fish results in population expansion of a declining amphibian (mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa)

PubMed Central

KNAPP, Roland A.; BOIANO, Daniel M.; VREDENBURG, Vance T.

2007-01-01

The mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) was once a common inhabitant of the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), but has declined precipitously during the past century due in part to the introduction of nonnative fish into naturally fishless habitats. The objectives of the current study were to describe (1) the effect of fish removal from three lakes (located in two watersheds) on the small, remnant R. muscosa populations inhabiting those lakes, and (2) the initial development of metapopulation structure in each watershed as R. muscosa from expanding populations in fish-removal lakes dispersed to adjacent habitats. At all three fish-removal lakes, R. muscosa population densities increased significantly following the removal of predatory fish. The magnitude of these increases was significantly greater than that observed over the same time period in R. muscosa populations inhabiting control lakes that remained in their natural fishless condition. Following these population increases, R. muscosa dispersed to adjacent suitable (but unoccupied) sites, moving between 200 and 900 m along streams or across dry land. Together, these results suggest that large-scale removal of introduced fish could result in at least partial reversal of the decline of R. muscosa. Continued monitoring of R. muscosa at the fish-removal sites will be necessary to determine whether the positive effects of fish eradication are sustained over the long-term, especially in light of the increasingly important role played by an emerging infectious disease (chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in influencing R. muscosa populations. PMID:17396156

Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

2012-05-01

Declines in numbers by several wader species in Britain have been linked to climate change, but the mechanism for the declines has rarely been explored. Britain lies at the northern end of the East Atlantic Flyway, and supports 1.3 million out of the Flyway's 8.5 million coastal waders (Charadrii) in winter and the Purple Sandpiper is one of the species whose numbers have declined. Here, we examine the dynamics of the decline as observed in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland, investigating whether the decline was due to poorer apparent survival (return rate) or poorer recruitment of young birds. The maximum number in the Moray Firth declined from 860 in 1987/88 to 236 in 2006/07, with some increase during winters 2007/08 and 2008/09. At the three main high-tide roosts (Balintore, Lossiemouth and Buckie) the maximum combined number declined from 574 to 90. Changes in survival and recruitment (percentage of first-year birds) were examined at these roosts from captured samples, which were ringed and recaptured. There were no significant changes between winters in survival rates, nor were there differences between the survival rates of age groups (first-year and adult) or bill size groups, which represented birds of different sex and breeding origin. Annual survival estimates for the three roosts ranged from 72 to 77%. The percentage of first-year birds varied among roosts and years; the lowest values were during the late 1980s/early 1990s and early 2000s. A free-running population model incorporating varying percentages of first-year birds and constant mortality for each roost provided a plausible explanation for the decline. Although modelled numbers followed the observed pattern, a discrepancy in one year was carried forward in subsequent years, so that the fit with the observed numbers was parallel rather than similar. However, it seems that the decline in numbers was largely due to poorer recruitment. We discuss whether breeding success had declined, whether the population had responded to changes in the local sewage treatment systems, which could affect invertebrate food for Purple Sandpipers, or whether fewer birds chose to winter in Scotland. The Moray Firth population is derived from Norway and possibly Canada, and there is evidence that the Norwegian population was disproportionately affected. The reason for poor recruitment requires further study, and other wader species require examination to test if poor recruitment is a common feature of decline in numbers.

Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, Robert N.

1999-01-01

We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsend's ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 1990s, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

Singapore.

PubMed

1982-09-01

Attention in this discussion of Singapore is directed to the following: history of the country's demographic situation; government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; government's view of the importance of population policy in achieving development objectives; population size, growth and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. The Republic of Singapore has experienced high population growth rates for some time, with its population of 1.02 million in 1950 increasing to an estimated 2.39 million in 1980. In recent years the rate has declined significantly, decreasing from nearly 5% per year in the early 1950s to 2.8 in 1960-65 and 1.5 in 1970-75. At the present growth rate of about 1.2% per annum, and anticipating the further declines that have been projected for 1995-2000, the population of Singapore is expected to reach about 2.97 million by the end of this century. The government considers the stabilization of the country's population to be 1 of its important objectives. In 1961 population growth was recognized as a serious problem. Singapore has a long history of census taking, having recently conducted its 11th decennial census. Because of the rapid decline in fertility in recent years, the government perceives the nation's current rates of natural increase and fertility as satisfactory, neither constraining development nor inhibiting economic growth. Yet, the government has established as a social norm a goal of a 2 child family and supports policies that discourage early marriage and childbearing at very young ages. The government maintains that Singapore's current rate of population growth is satisfactory, which is a recent change of position that is based on the rapid decline in fertility in the 1960s and 1970s. The crude death rate declined from about 10.6/1000 in 1950-55 to 7.1 in 1960-65 and to 5.1 in both 1970-75 and 1975-80, according to UN estimates. The average life expectancy at birth for both sexes has been improving. To reduce the need for high cost hospital services, the government has recently given more attention to promotive and preventive medicine. The crude birthrate, which was estimated to be around 44 births/1000 in 1950-55, has declined in the past several decades, decreasing to 17.2/1000 in 1975-80 according to UN estimates. The government regards the current level of fertility as satisfactory and has implemented incentive and disincentive schemes to maintain low rates. The government considers levels and trends of immigration to be not significant and satisfactory. The government regards the spatial distribution of the population to be appropriate and has no policies of intervention concerning either internal migration or the rural and urban configuration of settlement.

Demonstration of cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease using the Cambridge Cognitive Assessment (Revised) (CAMCOG-R).

PubMed

Athey, Richard J; Walker, Richard W

2006-10-01

Cognitive impairment is well recognised in Parkinson's Disease (PD) but few studies have examined cognitive decline over time in such subjects. Standard clinical assessments of cognitive function, such as the MMSE, do not measure all cognitive domains and often have a ceiling effect. CAMCOG-R provides a more comprehensive cognitive assessment allowing several different domains of cognition to be compared. It also features the ability to test 'executive function'. CAMCOG-R has only been reported on one previous occasion in PD subjects and this is the first study to report a follow-up CAMCOG-R to assess cognitive decline. In a previously published study CAMCOG-R was administered to a prevalent community-based population of 94 subjects with PD with a MMSE of 25 or above. In this subsequent study 85 of the subjects (two declined and seven were deceased) underwent a follow-up CAMCOG-R after a mean delay of 13.1 months. The initial, and follow-up mean total CAMCOG-R scores were 88.65/104 and 84.75/104 respectively, demonstrating a significant decline (p < 0.05). Significant cognitive decline (p < 0.05) was also seen across every CAMCOG-R cognitive domain and in the executive function scores. A wide range of cognitive ability was again demonstrated using CAMCOG-R in this PD population. The decline of 3.9 CAMCOG-R points over the 13-month period compares to other previous studies showing an annual decline of 1.6 CAMCOG points in normal elderly individuals and 12 CAMCOG points annually in those with established dementia. This study suggests that CAMCOG-R is a useful and appropriate tool for use in follow-up cognitive screening in PD subjects. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Shoulder strength value differences between genders and age groups.

PubMed

Balcells-Diaz, Eudald; Daunis-I-Estadella, Pepus

2018-03-01

The strength of a normal shoulder differs according to gender and decreases with age. Therefore, the Constant score, which is a shoulder function measurement tool that allocates 25% of the final score to strength, differs from the absolute values but likely reflects a normal shoulder. To compare group results, a normalized Constant score is needed, and the first step to achieving normalization involves statistically establishing the gender differences and age-related decline. In this investigation, we sought to verify the gender difference and age-related decline in strength. We obtained a randomized representative sample of the general population in a small to medium-sized Spanish city. We then invited this population to participate in our study, and we measured their shoulder strength. We performed a statistical analysis with a power of 80% and a P value < .05. We observed a statistically significant difference between the genders and a statistically significant decline with age. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first investigation to study a representative sample of the general population from which conclusions can be drawn regarding Constant score normalization. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does White Clover (Trifolium repens) Abundance in Temperate Pastures Determine Sitona obsoletus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larval Populations?

PubMed

McNeill, Mark R; van Koten, Chikako; Cave, Vanessa M; Chapman, David; Hodgson, Hamish

2016-01-01

To determine if host plant abundance determined the size of clover root weevil (CRW) Sitona obsoletus larval populations, a study was conducted over 4 years in plots sown in ryegrass ( Lolium perenne ) (cv. Nui) sown at either 6 or 30 kg/ha and white clover ( Trifolium repens ) sown at a uniform rate of 8 kg/ha. This provided a range of % white clover content to investigate CRW population establishment and impacts on white clover survival. Larval sampling was carried out in spring (October) when larval densities are near their spring peak at Lincoln (Canterbury, New Zealand) with % clover measured in autumn (April) and spring (September) of each year. Overall, mean larval densities measured in spring 2012-2015 were 310, 38, 59, and 31 larvae m -2 , respectively. There was a significant decline in larval populations between 2012 and 2013, but spring populations were relatively uniform thereafter. The mean % white clover measured in autumns of 2012 to 2015 was 17, 10, 3, and 11%, respectively. In comparison, mean spring % white clover from 2012 to 2015, averaged c. 5% each year. Analysis relating spring (October) larval populations to % white clover measured in each plot in autumn (April) found the 2012 larval population to be statistically significantly larger in the ryegrass 6 kg/ha plots than 30 kg/ha plots. Thereafter, sowing rate had no significant effect on larval populations. From 2013 to 2015, spring larval populations had a negative relationship with the previous autumn % white clover with the relationship highly significant for the 2014 data. When CRW larval populations in spring 2013 to 2015 were predicted from the 2013 to 2015 autumn % white clover, respectively, based on their positive relationship in 2012, the predicted densities were substantially larger than those observed. Conversely, when 2015 spring larval data and % clover was regressed against 2012-2014 larval populations, observed densities tended to be higher than predicted, but the numbers came closer to predicted for the 2013 and 2014 populations. These differences are attributed to a CRW population decline that was not accounted by % white clover changes, the CRW decline most likely due to biological control by the Braconid endoparasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides , which showed incremental increases in parasitism between 2012 and 2015, which in 2015 averaged 93%.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

PubMed

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-11-01

To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Over 1980-2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980-2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

Genetic Signatures of Demographic Changes in an Avian Top Predator during the Last Century: Bottlenecks and Expansions of the Eurasian Eagle Owl in the Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Graciá, Eva; Ortego, Joaquín; Godoy, José Antonio; Pérez-García, Juan Manuel; Blanco, Guillermo; del Mar Delgado, María; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Almodóvar, Irene; Botella, Francisco; Sánchez-Zapata, José Antonio

2015-01-01

The study of the demographic history of species can help to understand the negative impact of recent population declines in organisms of conservation concern. Here, we use neutral molecular markers to explore the genetic consequences of the recent population decline and posterior recovery of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last century, the species was the object of extermination programs, suffering direct persecution by hunters until the 70’s. Moreover, during the last decades the eagle owl was severely impacted by increased mortality due to electrocution and the decline of its main prey species, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In recent times, the decrease of direct persecution and the implementation of some conservation schemes have allowed the species’ demographic recovery. Yet, it remains unknown to which extent the past population decline and the later expansion have influenced the current species’ pattern of genetic diversity. We used eight microsatellite markers to genotype 235 eagle owls from ten Spanish subpopulations and analyse the presence of genetic signatures attributable to the recent population fluctuations experienced by the species. We found moderate levels of differentiation among the studied subpopulations and Bayesian analyses revealed the existence of three genetic clusters that grouped subpopulations from central, south-western and south-eastern Spain. The observed genetic structure could have resulted from recent human-induced population fragmentation, a patchy distribution of prey populations and/or the philopatric behaviour and habitat selection of the species. We detected an old population bottleneck, which occurred approximately 10,000 years ago, and significant signatures of recent demographic expansions. However, we did not find genetic signatures for a recent bottleneck, which may indicate that population declines were not severe enough to leave detectable signals on the species genetic makeup or that such signals have been eroded by the rapid demographic recovery experienced by the species in recent years. PMID:26230922

Evaluation of animal control measures on pet demographics in Santa Clara County, California, 1993-2006.

PubMed

Kass, Philip H; Johnson, Karen L; Weng, Hsin-Yi

2013-01-01

The measurable benefits of animal control programs are unknown and the aim of this study was to determine the impact of these programs on pet population changes. A prospective cross-sectional study of 1000 households was implemented in 2005 to evaluate characteristics of the owned and unowned population of dogs and cats in Santa Clara County, California. The same population was previously studied 12 years earlier. During this time period, the county instituted in 1994 and then subsequently disestablished a municipal spay/neuter voucher program for cats. Dog intakes declined from 1992-2005, as they similarly did for an adjacent county (San Mateo). However, cat intakes declined significantly more in Santa Clara County than San Mateo, with an average annual decline of approximately 700 cats for the 12 year period. Time series analysis showed a greater than expected decline in the number of cats surrendered to shelters in Santa Clara County during the years the voucher program was in effect (1994-2005). The net savings to the county by reducing the number of cat shelter intakes was estimated at approximately $1.5 million. The measurable benefits of animal control programs are unknown and the aim of this study was to determine the impact of these programs on pet population changes.

The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

PubMed

Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

2015-03-01

Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

Decline in relative abundance of bottlenose dolphins exposed to long-term disturbance.

PubMed

Bejder, Lars; Samuels, Amy; Whitehead, Hal; Gales, Nick; Mann, Janet; Connor, Richard; Heithaus, Mike; Watson-Capps, Jana; Flaherty, Cindy; Krützen, Michael

2006-12-01

Studies evaluating effects of human activity on wildlife typically emphasize short-term behavioral responses from which it is difficult to infer biological significance or formulate plans to mitigate harmful impacts. Based on decades of detailed behavioral records, we evaluated long-term impacts of vessel activity on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) in Shark Bay, Australia. We compared dolphin abundance within adjacent 36-km2 tourism and control sites, over three consecutive 4.5-year periods wherein research activity was relatively constant but tourism levels increased from zero, to one, to two dolphin-watching operators. A nonlinear logistic model demonstrated that there was no difference in dolphin abundance between periods with no tourism and periods in which one operator offered tours. As the number of tour operators increased to two, there was a significant average decline in dolphin abundance (14.9%; 95% CI=-20.8 to -8.23), approximating a decline of one per seven individuals. Concurrently, within the control site, the average increase in dolphin abundance was not significant (8.5%; 95% CI=-4.0 to +16.7). Given the substantially greater presence and proximity of tour vessels to dolphins relative to research vessels, tour-vessel activity contributed more to declining dolphin numbers within the tourism site than research vessels. Although this trend may not jeopardize the large, genetically diverse dolphin population of Shark Bay, the decline is unlikely to be sustainable for local dolphin tourism. A similar decline would be devastating for small, closed, resident, or endangered cetacean populations. The substantial effect of tour vessels on dolphin abundance in a region of low-level tourism calls into question the presumption that dolphin-watching tourism is benign.

Effects of an introduced pathogen and fire exclusion on the demography of sugar pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Keeley, Jon E.

2004-01-01

An introduced pathogen, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), has caused declines in five-needled pines throughout North America. Simultaneously, fire exclusion has resulted in dense stands in many forest types, which may create additional stress for these generally shade-intolerant pines. Fire exclusion also allows fuels to accumulate, and it is unclear how affected populations will respond to the reintroduction of fire. Although white pine blister rust and fire exclusion are widely recognized threats, long-term demographic data that document the effects of these stressors are rare. We present population trends from 2168 individuals over 5–15 years for an affected species, sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), at several burned and unburned sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Size-based matrix models indicate that most unburned populations have negative growth rates (λ range: 0.82–1.04). The growth rate of most populations was, however, indistinguishable from replacement levels (λ = 1.0), implying that, if populations are indeed declining, the progression of any such decline is slow, and longer observations are needed to clearly determine population trends. We found significant differences among population growth rates, primarily due to variation in recruitment rates. Deaths associated with blister rust and stress (i.e., resource competition) were common, suggesting significant roles for both blister rust and fire exclusion in determining population trajectories. Data from 15 prescribed fires showed that the immediate effect of burning was the death of many small trees, with the frequency of mortality returning to pre-fire levels within five years. In spite of a poor prognosis for sugar pine, our results suggest that we have time to apply and refine management strategies to protect this species.

Wetland habitats for wildlife of the Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, M.C.; Majumdar, S.K.; Miller, E.W.; Brenner, Fred J.

1998-01-01

The wetlands of Chesapeake Bay have provided the vital habitats that have sustained the impressive wildlife populations that have brought international fame to the Bay. As these wetland habitats decrease in quantity and quality we will continue to see the decline in the wildlife populations that started when European settlers first came to this continent. These declines have accelerated significantly in this century. As the human population continues to increase in the Bay watershed, one can expect that wetland habitats will continue to decline, resulting in declines in species diversity and population numbers. Although federal, state, and local governments are striving for 'no net loss' of wetlands, the results to date are not encouraging. It is unrealistic to believe that human populations and associated development can continue to increase and not adversely affect the wetland resources of the Bay. Restrictions on human population growth in the Chesapeake area is clearly the best way to protect wetland habitats and the wildlife that are dependent on these habitats. In addition, there should be more aggressive approaches to protect wetland habitats from continued perturbations from humans. More sanctuary areas should be created and there should be greater use of enhancement and management techniques that will benefit the full complement of species that potentially exist in these wetlands. The present trend in wetland loss can be expected to continue as human populations increase with resultant increases in roads, shopping malls, and housing developments. Creation of habitat for mitigation of these losses will not result in 'no net loss'. More innovative approaches should be employed to reverse the long-term trend in wetland loss by humans.

Palila abundance estimates and trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banko, Paul C.; Brink, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard

2014-01-01

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2014 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2013 population was estimated at 1,492−2,132 birds (point estimate: 1,799) and the 2014 population was estimated at 1,697−2,508 (point estimate: 2,070). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2014, and there was no difference in their detection probability due to count sequence. This suggests that greater precision in population estimates can be achieved if future surveys include repeat visits. No palila were detected outside the core survey area in 2013 or 2014, suggesting that most if not all palila inhabit the western slope during the survey period. Since 2003, the size of the area containing all annual palila detections do not indicate a significant change among years, suggesting that the range of the species has remained stable; although this area represents only about 5% of its historical extent. During 1998−2003, palila numbers fluctuated moderately (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.21). After peaking in 2003, population estimates declined steadily through 2011; since 2010, estimates have fluctuated moderately above the 2011 minimum (CV = 0.18). The average rate of decline during 1998−2014 was 167 birds per year with very strong statistical support for an overall declining trend in abundance. Over the 16-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 68% decline in the population.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: a wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; Linder, Gregory L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald W.; Little, Edward E.

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, 'Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect.' This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: A wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; ,

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple Stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, "Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect." This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

β-Amyloid binding in elderly subjects with declining or stable episodic memory function measured with PET and [¹¹C]AZD2184.

PubMed

Mattsson, Patrik; Forsberg, Anton; Persson, Jonas; Nyberg, Lars; Nilsson, Lars-Göran; Halldin, Christer; Farde, Lars

2015-09-01

Cognitive decline has been suggested as an early marker for later onset of Alzheimer's disease. We therefore explored the relationship between decline in episodic memory and β-amyloid using positron emission tomography (PET) and [(11)C]AZD2184, a radioligand with potential to detect low levels of amyloid deposits. Healthy elderly subjects with declining (n = 10) or stable (n = 10) episodic memory over 15 years were recruited from the population-based Betula study and examined with PET. Brain radioactivity was measured after intravenous administration of [(11)C]AZD2184. The binding potential BP ND was calculated using linear graphical analysis with the cerebellum as reference region. The binding of [(11)C]AZD2184 in total grey matter was generally low in the declining group, whereas some binding could be observed in the stable group. Mean BP ND was significantly higher in the stable group compared to the declining group (p = 0.019). An observation was that the three subjects with the highest BP ND were ApoE ε4 allele carriers. We conclude that cognitive decline in the general population does not seem to stand by itself as an early predictor for amyloid deposits.

Our "increasingly mobile society"? The curious persistence of a false belief.

PubMed

Wolf, Douglas A; Longino, Charles F

2005-02-01

We call attention to the widespread belief that the United States is an "increasingly mobile society," despite the fact that overall mobility has generally declined since about 1950, and interstate mobility has generally not increased during the same period. We review and extend past research documenting these mobility trends. We describe population-level mobility for people of all ages as well as for several adult age groups, using published data from the U.S. Current Population Survey. We use simple regression methods to estimate the size and significance of mobility trends. Overall mobility rates have declined for individuals of all ages and among all age groups. The largest average annual declines occur for 20- to 29-year-olds, although the rate of decline for those aged 65 and older is also large. Interstate mobility has declined slightly or remained constant, except among adults between 45 and 64 years old. Although there may be good reasons to worry about the future of family care provided to elderly individuals, increased geographic mobility does not appear to be one of them. We speculate on reasons why the false belief persists.

The disappearing northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens): conservation genetics and implications for remnant populations in western Nevada

PubMed Central

Rogers, Serena D; Peacock, Mary M

2012-01-01

Global amphibian declines suggest a major shift in the amount and quality of habitat for these sensitive taxa. Many species that were once widespread are now experiencing declines either in part of or across their historic range. The northern leopard frog (Rana [Lithobates] pipiens] has undergone significant declines particularly in the western United States and Canada. Leopard frog population losses in Nevada are largely due to habitat fragmentation and the introduction of nonnative fish, amphibian, and plant species. Only two populations remain in the Truckee and Carson River watersheds of western Nevada which represents the western boundary of this species range. We used sequence data for an 812 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase 1 (ND1) gene to support a native origin for western Nevada populations. All frogs had a single haplotype (W07) from the distinct western North America ND1 haplotype clade. Data from seven polymorphic microsatellite loci show that Truckee and Carson River populations are highly differentiated from each other and from leopard frogs collected from eastern Nevada sites. Lack of gene flow among and distinct color morphs among the western Nevada populations likely predates the current geographical isolation. Comparisons with other peripheral L. pipiens populations show western Nevada populations have similar levels of gene diversity despite their contemporary isolation (HE 0.411, 0.482). Restoration of leopard frog populations in these watersheds will be challenging given well-entrenched nonnative bullfrog populations and major changes to the riparian zone over the past century. Declines of once common amphibian species has become a major conservation concern. Contemporary isolation of populations on a species range periphery such as the leopard frog populations in the Truckee and Carson rivers further exacerbate extirpation risk as these populations are likely to have fewer genetic resources to adaptively respond to rapidly changing biotic and abiotic environments. PMID:22957204

Chinese culture and fertility decline.

PubMed

Wu, C; Jia, S

1992-01-01

Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self-reliance, education and cultivation of moral character, and atheism. Confucian beliefs that interfere with fertility decline are the advocacy of self-sufficient livelihood, the emphasis on family and lineage, autocracy, patriarchy and feudal rule, the 5 constant virtues, contempt for labor and working people, science and technology, and a closed-door policy. Socialism hindered fertility decline by promoting population growth as a symbol of the superiority of socialism and by lack of recognition of population or environmental problems in socialist countries. The goal is to accept Westernization, reduce obstacles, develop economically, and use cultural influence positive to fertility decline.

Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Hirschfeld, Mareike; Blackburn, David C.; Doherty-Bone, Thomas M.; Gonwouo, LeGrand Nono; Ghose, Sonia; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

2016-01-01

Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004–2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon’s frog diversity. PMID:27149624

Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot.

PubMed

Hirschfeld, Mareike; Blackburn, David C; Doherty-Bone, Thomas M; Gonwouo, LeGrand Nono; Ghose, Sonia; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

2016-01-01

Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004-2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon's frog diversity.

Effects of experimental removal of Barred Owls on population demography of Northern Spotted Owls in Washington and Oregon—2017 progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lesmeister, Damon B.; Dilione, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

2018-05-21

Populations of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter referred to as Spotted Owl) are declining throughout this subspecies’ geographic range. Evidence indicates that competition with invading populations of Barred Owls (S. varia) has contributed significantly to those declines. A pilot study in California showed that localized removal of Barred Owls coupled with conservation of suitable forest conditions can slow or even reverse population declines of Spotted Owls. It remains unknown, however, whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions, greater densities of Barred Owls, and fewer remaining Spotted Owls. During 2015–17, we initiated a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experiment at three study areas in Oregon and Washington to determine if removal of Barred Owls can improve population trends of Spotted Owls. Each study area had at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on Spotted Owls, and represented different forest conditions occupied by the two owl species in the Pacific Northwest. This report describes research accomplishments and preliminary results from the first 2.5 years (March 2015–August 2017) of the planned 5-year experiment.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Association of incidental emphysema with annual lung function decline and future development of airflow limitation

PubMed Central

Koo, Hyeon-Kyoung; Jin, Kwang Nam; Kim, Deog Kyeom; Chung, Hee Soon; Lee, Chang-Hoon

2016-01-01

Objectives Emphysema is one of the prognostic factors for rapid lung function decline in patients with COPD, but the impact of incidentally detected emphysema on population without spirometric abnormalities has not been evaluated. This study aimed to determine whether emphysema detected upon computed tomography (CT) screening would accelerate the rate of lung function decline and influence the possibility of future development of airflow limitation in a population without spirometric abnormalities. Materials and methods Subjects who participated in a routine screening for health checkup and follow-up pulmonary function tests for at least 3 years between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively enrolled. The percentage of low-attenuation area below −950 Hounsfield units (%LAA−950) was calculated automatically. A calculated value of %LAA−950 that exceeded 10% was defined as emphysema. Adjusted annual lung function decline was analyzed using random-slope, random-intercept mixed linear regression models. Results A total of 628 healthy subjects within the normal range of spriometric values were included. Multivariable analysis showed that the emphysema group exhibited a faster decline in forced vital capacity (−33.9 versus −18.8 mL/year; P=0.02). Emphysema was not associated with the development of airflow limitation during follow-up. Conclusion Incidental emphysema quantified using CT scan was significantly associated with a more rapid decline in forced vital capacity in the population with normative spirometric values. However, an association between emphysema and future development of airflow limitation was not observed. PMID:26893550

Association of cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus with cognitive functioning and risk of dementia in the general population: 11-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Torniainen-Holm, Minna; Suvisaari, Jaana; Lindgren, Maija; Härkänen, Tommi; Dickerson, Faith; Yolken, Robert H

2018-03-01

Earlier studies have documented an association between cytomegalovirus and cognitive impairment, but results have been inconsistent. Few studies have investigated the association of cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus with cognitive decline longitudinally. Our aim was to examine whether cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus are associated with cognitive decline in adults. The study sample is from the Finnish Health 2000 Survey (BRIF8901, n = 7112), which is representative of the Finnish adult population. The sample was followed up after 11 years in the Health 2011 Survey. In addition, persons with dementia were identified from healthcare registers. In the Finnish population aged 30 and over, the seroprevalence of cytomegalovirus was estimated to be 84% and the seroprevalence of Epstein-Barr virus 98%. Seropositivity of the viruses and antibody levels were mostly not associated with cognitive performance. In the middle-aged adult group, cytomegalovirus serointensity was associated with impaired performance in verbal learning. However, the association disappeared when corrected for multiple testing. No interactions between infection and time or between the two infections were significant when corrected for multiple testing. Seropositivity did not predict dementia diagnosis. The results suggest that adult levels of antibodies to cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus may not be associated with a significant decline in cognitive function or with dementia at population level. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

Ecological and genetic impact of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on intertidal mud snails

PubMed Central

Miura, Osamu; Kanaya, Gen; Nakai, Shizuko; Itoh, Hajime; Chiba, Satoshi; Makino, Wataru; Nishimura, Tomohiro; Kojima, Shigeaki; Urabe, Jotaro

2017-01-01

Natural disturbances often destroy local populations and can considerably affect the genetic properties of these populations. The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami greatly damaged local populations of various coastal organisms, including the mud snail Batillaria attramentaria, which was an abundant macroinvertebrate on the tidal flats in the Tohoku region. To evaluate the impact of the tsunami on the ecology and population genetic properties of these snails, we monitored the density, shell size, and microsatellite DNA variation of B. attramentaria for more than ten years (2005–2015) throughout the disturbance event. We found that the density of snails declined immediately after the tsunami. Bayesian inference of the genetically effective population size (Ne) demonstrated that the Ne declined by 60–99% at the study sites exposed to the tsunami. However, we found that their genetic diversity was not significantly reduced after the tsunami. The maintenance of genetic diversity is essential for long-term survival of local populations, and thus, the observed genetic robustness could play a key role in the persistence of snail populations in this region which has been devastated by similar tsunamis every 500–800 years. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the sustainability of populations damaged by natural disturbances. PMID:28281698

Is Chytridiomycosis Driving Darwin’s Frogs to Extinction?

PubMed Central

Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Clarke, Barry T.; Busse, Klaus; Ortiz, Juan Carlos; Barrientos, Carlos; Cunningham, Andrew A.

2013-01-01

Darwin’s frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum) are two species of mouth brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina that have experienced marked population declines. Rhinoderma rufum has not been found in the wild since 1980. We investigated historical and current evidence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) infection in Rhinoderma spp. to determine whether chytridiomycosis is implicated in the population declines of these species. Archived and live specimens of Rhinoderma spp., sympatric amphibians and amphibians at sites where Rhinoderma sp. had recently gone extinct were examined for Bd infection using quantitative real-time PCR. Six (0.9%) of 662 archived anurans tested positive for Bd (4/289 R. darwinii; 1/266 R. rufum and 1/107 other anurans), all of which had been collected between 1970 and 1978. An overall Bd-infection prevalence of 12.5% was obtained from 797 swabs taken from 369 extant individuals of R. darwinii and 428 individuals representing 18 other species of anurans found at sites with current and recent presence of the two Rhinoderma species. In extant R. darwinii, Bd-infection prevalence (1.9%) was significantly lower than that found in other anurans (7.3%). The prevalence of infection (30%) in other amphibian species was significantly higher in sites where either Rhinoderma spp. had become extinct or was experiencing severe population declines than in sites where there had been no apparent decline (3.0%; x 2 = 106.407, P<0.001). This is the first report of widespread Bd presence in Chile and our results are consistent with Rhinoderma spp. declines being due to Bd infection, although additional field and laboratory investigations are required to investigate this further. PMID:24278196

Estimation of physician supply by specialty and the distribution impact of increasing female physicians in Japan.

PubMed

Koike, Soichi; Matsumoto, Shinya; Kodama, Tomoko; Ide, Hiroo; Yasunaga, Hideo; Imamura, Tomoaki

2009-10-07

Japan has experienced two large changes which affect the supply and distribution of physicians. They are increases in medical school enrollment capacity and in the proportion of female physicians. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future supply of physicians by specialty and to predict the associated impact of increased female physicians, as well as to discuss the possible policy implications. Based on data from the 2004 and 2006 National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists, we estimated the future supply of physicians by specialty, using multistate life tables. Based on possible scenarios of the future increase in female physicians, we also estimated the supply of physicians by specialty. Even if Japan's current medical school enrollment capacity is maintained in subsequent years, the number of physicians per 1000 population is expected to increase from 2.2 in 2006 to 3.2 in 2036, which is a 46% increase from the current level. The numbers of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) and surgeons are expected to temporarily decline from their current level, whereas the number of OB/GYNs per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. The number of surgeons per 1000 population, even with the decreasing population, will decline temporarily over the next few years. If the percentage of female physicians continues to increase, the overall number of physicians will not be significantly affected, but in specialties with current very low female physician participation rates, such as surgery, the total number of physicians is expected to decline significantly. At the current medical school enrollment capacity, the number of physicians per population is expected to continue to increase because of the skewed age distribution of physicians and the declining population in Japan. However, with changes in young physicians' choices of medical specialties and as the percentage of female physicians increases, patterns of physician supply will vary between specialties. Specialties less often chosen by young physicians and where males have dominated will face a decline in physician supply. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts female physicians to these types of specialties. This will also lead to improved gender equality in the workforce and more effective use of human resources.

Estimation of physician supply by specialty and the distribution impact of increasing female physicians in Japan

PubMed Central

Koike, Soichi; Matsumoto, Shinya; Kodama, Tomoko; Ide, Hiroo; Yasunaga, Hideo; Imamura, Tomoaki

2009-01-01

Background Japan has experienced two large changes which affect the supply and distribution of physicians. They are increases in medical school enrollment capacity and in the proportion of female physicians. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future supply of physicians by specialty and to predict the associated impact of increased female physicians, as well as to discuss the possible policy implications. Methods Based on data from the 2004 and 2006 National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists, we estimated the future supply of physicians by specialty, using multistate life tables. Based on possible scenarios of the future increase in female physicians, we also estimated the supply of physicians by specialty. Results Even if Japan's current medical school enrollment capacity is maintained in subsequent years, the number of physicians per 1000 population is expected to increase from 2.2 in 2006 to 3.2 in 2036, which is a 46% increase from the current level. The numbers of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) and surgeons are expected to temporarily decline from their current level, whereas the number of OB/GYNs per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. The number of surgeons per 1000 population, even with the decreasing population, will decline temporarily over the next few years. If the percentage of female physicians continues to increase, the overall number of physicians will not be significantly affected, but in specialties with current very low female physician participation rates, such as surgery, the total number of physicians is expected to decline significantly. Conclusion At the current medical school enrollment capacity, the number of physicians per population is expected to continue to increase because of the skewed age distribution of physicians and the declining population in Japan. However, with changes in young physicians' choices of medical specialties and as the percentage of female physicians increases, patterns of physician supply will vary between specialties. Specialties less often chosen by young physicians and where males have dominated will face a decline in physician supply. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts female physicians to these types of specialties. This will also lead to improved gender equality in the workforce and more effective use of human resources. PMID:19811625

Stability of spinosad resistance in Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) under laboratory conditions.

PubMed

Bielza, P; Quinto, V; Grávalos, C; Fernández, E; Abellán, J; Contreras, J

2008-08-01

The stability of spinosad resistance in western flower thrips (WFT), Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), populations with differing initial frequencies of resistance was studied in laboratory conditions. The stability of resistance was assessed in bimonthly residual bioassays in five populations with initial frequencies of 100, 75, 50, 25 and 0% of resistant individuals. There were no consistent changes in susceptibility of the susceptible strain after eight months without insecticide pressure. In the resistant strain, very highly resistant to spinosad (RF50>23,000-fold), resistance was maintained up to eight months without further exposure to spinosad. In the absence of any immigration of susceptible genes into the population, resistance was stable. In the case of the population with different initial frequency of resistant thrips, spinosad resistance declined significantly two months later in the absence of selection pressure. With successive generations, these strains did not change significantly in sensitivity. Spinosad resistance in F. occidentalis declined significantly in the absence of selection pressure and the presence of susceptible WFT. These results suggest that spinosad resistance probably is unstable under field conditions, primarily due to the immigration of susceptible WFT. Factors influencing stability or reversion of spinosad resistance are discussed.

The NEIL Memory Research Unit: psychosocial, biological, physiological and lifestyle factors associated with healthy ageing: study protocol.

PubMed

Hannigan, Caoimhe; Coen, Robert F; Lawlor, Brian A; Robertson, Ian H; Brennan, Sabina

2015-01-01

Population ageing is a global phenomenon that has characterised demographic trends during the 20th and 21st century. The rapid growth in the proportion of older adults in the population, and resultant increase in the incidence of age-related cognitive decline, dementia and Alzheimer's disease, brings significant social, economic and healthcare challenges. Decline in cognitive abilities represents the most profound threat to active and healthy ageing. Current evidence suggests that a significant proportion of cases of age-related cognitive decline and dementia may be preventable through the modification of risk factors including education, depressive symptomology, physical activity, social engagement and participation in cognitively stimulating activities. The NEIL Memory Research Unit cohort study was established to investigate factors related to brain health and the maintenance of cognitive function. A cohort of 1000 normally ageing adults aged 50 years and over are being recruited to participate in comprehensive assessments at baseline, and at follow-up once every 2 years. The assessment protocol comprises a comprehensive neuropsychological battery, some basic physical measures, psychosocial scales, questionnaire measures related to a range of health, lifestyle and behavioural factors, and a measure of resting state activity using electroencephalography (EEG). The NEIL Memory Research Unit cohort study will address key questions about brain health and cognitive ageing in the population aged 50+, with a particular emphasis on the influence of potentially modifiable factors on cognitive outcomes. Analyses will be conducted with a focus on factors involved in the maintenance of cognitive function among older adults, and therefore will have the potential to contribute significant knowledge related to key questions within the field of cognitive ageing, and to inform the development of public health interventions aimed at preventing cognitive decline and promoting active and healthy ageing.

Rate of Decline of the Oriental White-Backed Vulture Population in India Estimated from a Survey of Diclofenac Residues in Carcasses of Ungulates

PubMed Central

Green, Rhys E.; Taggart, Mark A.; Senacha, Kalu Ram; Raghavan, Bindu; Pain, Deborah J.; Jhala, Yadvendradev; Cuthbert, Richard

2007-01-01

The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac is a major cause of the rapid declines in the Indian subcontinent of three species of vultures endemic to South Asia. The drug causes kidney failure and death in vultures. Exposure probably arises through vultures feeding on carcasses of domesticated ungulates treated with the drug. However, before the study reported here, it had not been established from field surveys of ungulate carcasses that a sufficient proportion was contaminated to cause the observed declines. We surveyed diclofenac concentrations in samples of liver from carcasses of domesticated ungulates in India in 2004–2005. We estimated the concentration of diclofenac in tissues available to vultures, relative to that in liver, and the proportion of vultures killed after feeding on a carcass with a known level of contamination. We assessed the impact of this mortality on vulture population trend with a population model. We expected levels of diclofenac found in ungulate carcasses in 2004–2005 to cause oriental white-backed vulture population declines of 80–99% per year, depending upon the assumptions used in the model. This compares with an observed rate of decline, from road transect counts, of 48% per year in 2000–2003. The precision of the estimate based upon carcass surveys is low and the two types of estimate were not significantly different. Our analyses indicate that the level of diclofenac contamination found in carcasses of domesticated ungulates in 2004–2005 was sufficient to account for the observed rapid decline of the oriental white-backed vulture in India. The methods we describe could be used again to assess changes in the effect on vulture population trend of diclofenac and similar drugs. In this way, the effectiveness of the recent ban in India on the manufacture and importation of diclofenac for veterinary use could be monitored. PMID:17668064

Changes in Breast Cancer Risk Distribution Among Vermont Women Using Screening Mammography

PubMed Central

Bolton, Kenyon C.; Mace, John L.; Vacek, Pamela M.; Herschorn, Sally D.; James, Ted A.; Tice, Jeffrey A.; Kerlikowske, Karla; Geller, Berta M.; Weaver, Donald L.

2014-01-01

Background Screening mammography utilization in Vermont has declined since 2009 during a time of changing screening guidelines and increased interest in personalized screening regimens. This study evaluates whether the breast cancer risk distribution of the state’s screened population changed during the observed decline. Methods We examined the breast cancer risk distribution among screened women between 2001 and 2012 using data from the Vermont Breast Cancer Surveillance System. We estimated each screened woman’s 5-year risk of breast cancer using the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium risk calculator. Annual screening counts by risk group were normalized and age-adjusted to the Vermont female population by direct standardization. Results The normalized rate of low-risk (5-year breast cancer risk of <1%) women screened increased 8.3% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.8 to 11.9) between 2003 and 2008 and then declined by −5.4% per year (95% CI = −8.1 to −2.6) until 2012. When stratified by age group, the rate of low-risk women screened declined −4.4% per year (95% CI = −8.8 to 0.1; not statistically significant) for ages 40 to 49 years and declined a statistically significant −7.1% per year (95% CI = −12.1 to −2.0) for ages 50 to 74 years during 2008 to 2012. These declines represented the bulk of overall decreases in screening after 2008, with rates for women categorized in higher risk levels generally exhibiting small annual changes. Conclusions The observed decline in women screened in Vermont in recent years is largely attributable to reductions in screening visits by women who are at low risk of developing breast cancer. PMID:24957223

[Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

PubMed

Kurz, R

1982-05-01

The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

Detection and effects of harmful algal toxins in Scottish harbour seals and potential links to population decline.

PubMed

Jensen, Silje-Kristin; Lacaze, Jean-Pierre; Hermann, Guillaume; Kershaw, Joanna; Brownlow, Andrew; Turner, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa

2015-04-01

Over the past 15 years or so, several Scottish harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations have declined in abundance and several factors have been considered as possible causes, including toxins from harmful algae. Here we explore whether a link could be established between two groups of toxins, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (STXs), and the decline in the harbour seal populations in Scotland. We document the first evidence that harbour seals are exposed to both DA and STXs from consuming contaminated fish. Both groups of toxins were found in urine and faeces sampled from live captured (n = 162) and stranded animals (n = 23) and in faecal samples collected from seal haul-out sites (n = 214) between 2008 and 2013. The proportion of positive samples and the toxins levels measured in the excreta were significantly higher in areas where harbour seal abundance is in decline. There is also evidence that DA has immunomodulatory effects in harbour seals, including lymphocytopenia and monocytosis. Scottish harbour seals are exposed to DA and STXs through contaminated prey at potentially lethal levels and with this evidence we suggest that exposure to these toxins are likely to be important factors driving the harbour seal decline in some regions of Scotland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

PubMed

Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

2015-12-01

Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

7 CFR 1415.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... animals, native plant and animal biodiversity, soil erosion control, forage production, and air and water... growth habit. Significant decline means a decrease of a species population to such an extent that it...

7 CFR 1415.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... animals, native plant and animal biodiversity, soil erosion control, forage production, and air and water... growth habit. Significant decline means a decrease of a species population to such an extent that it...

7 CFR 1415.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... animals, native plant and animal biodiversity, soil erosion control, forage production, and air and water... growth habit. Significant decline means a decrease of a species population to such an extent that it...

Longitudinal Modeling of Functional Decline Associated with Pathologic Alzheimer's Disease in Older Persons without Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Wang, Dai; Schultz, Tim; Novak, Gerald P; Baker, Susan; Bennett, David A; Narayan, Vaibhav A

2018-01-01

Therapeutic research on Alzheimer's disease (AD) has moved to intercepting the disease at the preclinical phase. Most drugs in late development have focused on the amyloid hypothesis. To understand the magnitude of amyloid-related functional decline and to identify the functional domains sensitive to decline in a preclinical AD population. Data were from the Religious Orders Study and the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Cognitive decline was measured by a modified version of the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite. The trajectories of functional decline, as measured by the instrumental and basic activities of daily living, were longitudinally modeled in 484 participants without cognitive impairment at baseline and having both a final clinical and a postmortem neuropathology assessment of AD. Individuals with different final clinical diagnoses had different trajectories of cognitive and functional decline. Individuals with AD dementia, minor cognitive impairment, and no cognitive impairment had the most, intermediate, and least declines. While individuals with pathologic AD had significantly more cognitive decline over time than those without, the magnitude of difference in functional decline between these two groups was small. Functional domains such as handling finance and handling medications were more sensitive to decline. Demonstrating the functional benefit of an amyloid-targeting drug represents a significant challenge as elderly people experience functional decline due to a wide range of reasons with limited manifestation attributable to AD neuropathology. More sensitive functional scales focusing on the functional domains sensitive to decline in preclinical AD are needed.

Evaluation of the association of acute overshift change in pulmonary function and atopy using OSHA cotton dust surveillance data.

PubMed

Jennison, E; Jacobs, R R

1994-05-01

OSHA surveillance data were collected for 769 individuals employed in four different cotton textile mills. Current workers were asked to complete a questionnaire about personal and family history of atopy or asthma. Both surveillance and survey data were available for 502 individuals. The prevalence of atopy in the population as reported by questionnaire was 18%, while asthma was reported by 4%. Dust levels at the four mills were in compliance with the cotton dust standard during the period of surveillance. No relationship was found between a self-reported history of atopy or asthma and the magnitude or frequency of acute overshift declines in forced expiratory volume during 1 second (FEV1). Nonsmokers had annual changes in FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC) comparable to nonexposed populations. In one of the four mills surveyed, annual declines in FEV1 and FVC for current smokers were significantly greater than declines for smokers in the other mills or the general smoking population (p < 0.02). This mill effect was also observed for subjects who were categorized as atopic (p < 0.02). For nonsmokers there appears to be no significant adverse health effect from exposure to the levels of cotton dust observed in these mills.

Changing places: the impact of rural restructuring on mental health in Australia.

PubMed

Fraser, Cait; Jackson, Henry; Judd, Fiona; Komiti, Angela; Robins, Garry; Murray, Greg; Humphreys, John; Pattison, Pip; Hodgins, Gene

2005-06-01

Significant demographic, social and economic change has come to characterise much of rural Australia, with some authors arguing there are now two sharply differentiated zones, one of growth and one of decline. This restructuring process, which has been similar to other western nations, has had a profound impact upon rural places-socially, economically and physically. Findings from research investigating the relationship between health, place and income inequality suggest that rural 'desertification', which is characterised by decline of the agricultural sector, net population loss and the deterioration of demographic structures, may negatively influence mental health outcomes in these areas. By contrast, the growth in rural areas, which is associated with expanding employment opportunities and the movement of capital and people, may confer positive benefits to mental health. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in mental health and well-being between rural communities experiencing growth and decline as measured by net population change. Utilising a survey methodology, questionnaires were distributed to 20,000 people randomly sampled from the electoral role in rural Australia. We selected four sub-regions from the sample area that were characteristic of areas experiencing population growth and decline in Australia and analysed the results of respondents from these four regions (n = 1334). The analysis provided support for our hypothesis that living in a declining area is associated with poorer mental health status; however, the factors that underpin growth and decline may also be important in influencing mental health. Discussed are the mechanisms by which demographic and social change influence mental health. The findings of this study highlight the diversity of health outcomes in rural areas and suggest that aspects of place in declining rural areas may present risk factors for mental health.

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) survivorship and habitat studies in Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area and surrounding lands, Wyoming and Montana, 2000–2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Singer, Francis J.; Grams, Kayla A.; Roelle, James E.

2004-01-01

In the 1850s, bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were numerous and distributed throughout the Bighorn and Pryor Mountains of Montana and Wyoming. After European settlement, bighorn sheep populations declined, and local extinctions occurred in much of their historic range in the western United States. The current bighorn sheep population of Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) is the product of several reintroductions into BICA and surrounding lands. Following a release in 1973 and growth rates near maximum potential of 19.8% per year, the population grew to an estimated peak population of about 211 animals in 1993 and 1994 (Kissell and others, 1996). Recent counts indicate the bighorn sheep population has declined. Kissell and others (1996) reported that the population began to decline rapidly in 1995 and 1996. He noted low ewe:lamb ratios during the decline phase. Bighorn sheep numbers declined to the lowest minimum viable population size of 100 animals recommended by several bighorn sheep experts (Bailey, 1990; Berger, 1990; Smith and others, 1991). National Park Service (NPS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) managers were concerned about the decline and requested a study of its causes. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey- Biological Resources Division (USGS-BRD) received funding to start a 3-year study of survivorship, condition, and population growth rate of the BICA bighorn sheep population.Several possibilities exist for the bighorn sheep decline. The herd may have experienced a rapid population expansion, followed by a decline to stability at a lower long-term carrying capacity. This pattern of apparently overshooting carrying capacity following an initial release has been reported for a number of ungulates (Caughley, 1976). Disease may have caused the decline; predation and/or competition with wild horses (Equus caballus) may also have been factors. A spatial model of wild horse carrying capacity (Coughenour, 1999) was developed to assist managers in evaluating wild horse population numbers. Studies of summer consumption rates by wild horses and other ungulates were conducted by James Detling and students from Colorado State University (Peterson and others, 1997; Gerhardt and Detling, 1998; Fahnestock, 1998). Diets and habitat use of wild horses, bighorn sheep and mule deer were studied by Coates and Schemnitz (1989) and Kissell and others (1996). Both Coates and Schemnitz (1989) and Kissell and others (1996) reported a high degree of dietary overlap between wild horses and bighorn sheep. However, Kissell and others (1996) concluded that a high degree of spatial separation between wild horses and bighorn sheep, at least under the study conditions, precluded any significant negative competitive influences. The most important overlap of bighorn sheep and wild horses seems to be on winter range. Competition can be difficult to determine, since current conditions may not reveal competition that has already occurred. Managers remained concerned about the declining bighorn population for the following reasons: Our objectives for the study were to: Evaluate current disease problems and mortality rates, including predation rates, in bighorn sheep through captures and monitoring of bighorn sheep.Determine winter spatial relations of wild horses and bighorn sheep through aerial surveys of winter range.Conduct habitat measurements to determine why bighorn sheep were not using what had been mapped with a GIS-based habitat model as suitable bighorn sheep habitat, and sample winter and summer consumption rates of key forage species to see if there were other factors precluding use of these areas by bighorn sheep.Compare winter lamb recruitment rates and total vegetation consumption rates on bighorn sheep winter use areas, with and without wild horses present.Complete year-round GIS-based distribution maps for wild horses and bighorn sheep in order to identify key areas of species overlap and key areas of species separation for potential habitat improvements.NPS park staff asked USGS to answer the following questions: (a) how large is the population?; (b) how many rams are in the population?; (c) in addition to low lamb recruitment, is mortality or dispersal of adults likely contributing to the decline?; and (d) is trophy hunting of rams contributing to the decline?

Foothill yellow-legged frog conservation assessment in California

Treesearch

Marc P. Hayes; Clara A. Wheeler; Amy J. Lind; Gregory A. Green; Diane C. Macfarlane

2016-01-01

The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii) is a stream-breeding amphibian that has experienced significant population declines over a large portion of its historical range. This frog is nearing extirpation in much of the Sierra Nevada region where existing populations are sparse. Water development and diversions are likely to be the primary...

Which native milkweeds are acceptable host plants for larval monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) within the Midwestern U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the past two decades, the population of monarch butterflies east of the Rocky Mountains has experienced a significant decline. Habitat restoration within the summer breeding range is crucial to boost population numbers. Monarch butterfly larvae use milkweeds as their only host plant. However, l...

Population Trends and Their Implications for Association Planning, 1981.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Constant, Anne P., Ed.; And Others

Population trends will have a significant impact on educators' decision making, not only because of declining enrollment, but also because employment patterns and staffing in schools and colleges will be affected. Among the factors that educators must contend with are: (1) The birth rate has been increasing slowly since 1974; (2) The reduction in…

Changes in breeding bird populations in North Dakota: 1967 to 1992-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Igl, L.D.; Johnson, D.H.

1997-01-01

We compared breeding bird populations in North Dakota using surveys conducted in 1967 and 1992-93. In decreasing order, the five most frequently occurring species were Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris), Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus). The five most abundant species - Horned Lark, Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus), Red-winged Blackbird, Western Meadowlark, and Brown-headed Cowbird - accounted for 31-41% of the estimated statewide breeding bird population in the three years. Although species composition remained relatively similar among years, between-year patterns in abundance and frequency varied considerably among species. Data from this survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey indicated that species exhibiting significant declines were primarily grassland- and wetland-breeding birds, whereas species exhibiting significant increases primarily were those associated with human structures and woody vegetation. Population declines and increases for species with similar habitat associations paralleled breeding habitat changes, providing evidence that factors on the breeding grounds are having a detectable effect on breeding birds in the northern Great Plains.

Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States

PubMed Central

Baker, Brian J.; Winston, Carla A.; Liu, Yecai; France, Anne Marie; Cain, Kevin P.

2016-01-01

While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1) changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2) changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3) changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry), we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases) beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000–2007) and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011–2014). Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%–100%) the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry), we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases) that resulted entirely (100%) from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control) as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted testing of high-risk subgroups among non-recent entrants) will be necessary to achieve further declines in TB morbidity among foreign-born persons. PMID:26863004

Diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, and cognitive decline in a population of elderly community residents.

PubMed

Rouch, Isabelle; Roche, Frédéric; Dauphinot, Virginie; Laurent, Bernard; Antérion, Catherine Thomas; Celle, Sébastien; Krolak-Salmon, Pierre; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude

2012-08-01

Diabetes and impaired fasting glucose, as well as cognitive impairment, are common in the elderly. Although several cross-sectional studies have demonstrated the influence of diabetes on cognitive impairment, only a few longitudinal studies have assessed the relationship between diabetes, impaired fasting glucose and cognitive decline in non-demented elderly community dwellers, by means of extensive neuropsychological batteries. The present study assesses the relationship between baseline diabetes, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and 2- year evolution of memory, attention and executive performance in a sample of non-demented elderly subjects. Population-based cohort study [(PROgnostic indicator OF cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (PROOF)]. One hundred and sixty-three community dwellers aged 65 years without dementia at recruitment. Memory, attention and executive performance. A significant association was observed between baseline diabetes mellitus and a higher 2-year decline in the Trial Making Test B and Stroop test exploring attention and executive function. This effect remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, education, anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as other cardiovascular risk factors (F=2.41; p=0.007). Instead, no relationship was observed between IFG and cognitive decline. Our study showed that, in a sample of elderly non-demented community dwellers, diabetes mellitus (but not IFG) is associated with a higher decline in selective attention and executive functioning. These results emphasize the importance of detecting and man- aging diabetes and impaired fasting glucose, in order to prevent cognitive impairment and dementia.

Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Bortner, J.B.

1991-01-01

Population trend analysis of American woodcook (Scolopax minor) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

Bahrain.

PubMed

1980-03-01

Focus in this discussion of Bahrain is on the following: history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; statistical systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; the government's view of the importance of population policy in realizing development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. During the last 4 decades, the population has almost quadrupled as indicated by subsequent censuses. The rates of growth during this period fluctuated around 3-4%, with the highest (4.3%) observed during 1970-1975 and the lowest (2.8%) between 1975 and 1980, according to the estimates of the UN Population Division. The government has no official, comprehensive population policy with specific demographic objectives, but the growing significance of demographic changes has stimulated a high level of awareness of population issues in government circles. The government's major concerns in regard to population are presently those issues related to the international migration situation, to the spatial distribution of the population, to economic and social restructuring, and to overall family welfare. Since 1941, 6 censuses have been conducted, and the most recent census was in 1981. Bahrain's vital registration system has continued to be less developed than its censuses. The country is at an initial stage of coordinating development planning at the central level. At present there are no formal arrangements for integration of population within development planning. A comprehensive population policy is yet to be articulated. The government increasingly recognizes interlinkages between economic expansion and demographic growth, particularly in regard to immigration and spatial distribution. The rate of natural increase remained at a relatively steady 33.3/1000 population in the 1960s. It declined in the early 1970s to about 28.5/1000. In the 1980s the rate of natural increase is expected to decline further. The government has generally perceived the rate of population growth and natural increase as satisfactory. The crude death rate declined from 13.8 deaths/1000 between 1960-1965 to 6.3 during 1975-1980. The crude birthrate declined from 47.0 during 1960-1965 to 34.4 during 1975-1980.

Ecophysiology of Nais elinguis (Oligochaeta) in a brackish-water lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, Colin

1984-02-01

Population densities of Nais elinguis Müller were determined in Swanpool, a brackish-water lagoon at Falmouth, Cornwall, U.K., over a four-year period. High densities were found only from January to May, usually with a peak in March. Significant negative correlations were shown between population density and both salinity and temperature. In laboratory tests, feeding rates remained unchanged from freshwater to 20‰ salinity (S), but declined above this salinity. Nais elinguis was shown to be a good osmoregulator, remaining hyperosmotic below 7‰ S, and hypo-osmotic above this. Feeding rate showed a Q 10 of approximately 2 from 1 to 25°C, but above this the rate declined. Feeding rate was unaffected between pH 6 and 11. Increased salinity to (10‰ S) did not influence the effect of temperature on feeding rate. This high salinity did reduce feeding rate at a pH of 10 and above. It is concluded that the physical and chemical variables considered are unlikely to be direct causal factors limiting populations of N. elinguis in Swanpool. The influence of food supply, competition, predation and changes in reproductive mode are discussed as possible controlling factors. It is shown that the population decline of N. elinguis in early summer usually coincides with the rise of populations of chironomid larvae.

No evidence for effects of infection with the amphibian chytrid fungus on populations of yellow-bellied toads.

PubMed

Wagner, Norman; Neubeck, Claus; Guicking, Daniela; Finke, Lennart; Wittich, Martin; Weising, Kurt; Geske, Christian; Veith, Michael

2017-02-08

The parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) can cause the lethal disease chytridiomycosis in amphibians and therefore may play a role in population declines. The yellow-bellied toad Bombina variegata suffered strong declines throughout western and northwestern parts of its range and is therefore listed as highly endangered for Germany and the federal state of Hesse. Whether chytridiomycosis may play a role in the observed local declines of this strictly protected anuran species has never been tested. We investigated 19 Hessian yellow-bellied toad populations for Bd infection rates, conducted capture-mark-recapture studies in 4 of them over 2 to 3 yr, examined survival histories of recaptured infected individuals, and tested whether multi-locus heterozygosity of individuals as well as expected heterozygosity and different environmental variables of populations affect probabilities of Bd infection. Our results show high prevalence of Bd infection in Hessian yellow-bellied toad populations, but although significant decreases in 2 populations could be observed, no causative link to Bd as the reason for this can be established. Mass mortalities or obvious signs of disease in individuals were not observed. Conversely, we show that growth of Bd-infected populations is possible under favorable habitat conditions and that most infected individuals could be recaptured with improved body indices. Neither genetic diversity nor environmental variables appeared to affect Bd infection probabilities. Hence, genetically diverse amphibian specimens and populations may not automatically be less susceptible for Bd infection.

An evaluation of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) decline in the urban forest of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catton, H.A.; St., George; Remphrey, W.R.

2007-01-01

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, has a large, indigenous population of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.). In the 1980s, many of these trees were showing signs of decline, a disease caused by a complex of abiotic and secondary biotic stressing agents. Potential causal factors were investigated by comparing various aspects of 120 bur oaks visually rated as healthy or declined based on crown dieback levels. The results indicated that many selected bur oak trees predated surrounding urban development and that declined trees were significantly older with more severe stem wounds and competition from surrounding trees than healthy specimens. Average annual growth ring widths of healthy and declined trees were similar in the early part of the 20th century. However, decline actually began decades before symptoms were noticed, coinciding with a period of in tense city-wide urban development, as growth of declined trees was slower than that of healthy trees beginning sporadically in the 1940s and consistently from 1974 to 2001. During the early years of decline, the year-by-year separation in ring width between the two categories was significantly positively related to precipitation levels. This suggested that in wet years, declined trees may have been surrounded by unfavorable water-logged soils, possibly as a result of natural drainage patterns being impeded by urban development. ?? 2007 International Society of Arboriculture.

Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Rick A

2010-08-01

Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

Full Mitogenomes in the Critically Endangered Kākāpō Reveal Major Post-Glacial and Anthropogenic Effects on Neutral Genetic Diversity.

PubMed

Dussex, Nicolas; von Seth, Johanna; Robertson, Bruce C; Dalén, Love

2018-04-19

Understanding how species respond to population declines is a central question in conservation and evolutionary biology. Population declines are often associated with loss of genetic diversity, inbreeding and accumulation of deleterious mutations, which can lead to a reduction in fitness and subsequently contribute to extinction. Using temporal approaches can help us understand the effects of population declines on genetic diversity in real time. Sequencing pre-decline as well as post-decline mitogenomes representing all the remaining mitochondrial diversity, we estimated the loss of genetic diversity in the critically endangered kākāpō ( Strigops habroptilus ). We detected a signal of population expansion coinciding with the end of the Pleistocene last glacial maximum (LGM). Also, we found some evidence for northern and southern lineages, supporting the hypothesis that the species may have been restricted to isolated northern and southern refugia during the LGM. We observed an important loss of neutral genetic diversity associated with European settlement in New Zealand but we could not exclude a population decline associated with Polynesian settlement in New Zealand. However, we did not find evidence for fixation of deleterious mutations. We argue that despite high pre-decline genetic diversity, a rapid and range-wide decline combined with the lek mating system, and life-history traits of kākāpō contributed to a rapid loss of genetic diversity following severe population declines.

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

Treesearch

Thomas C. Marcin

1974-01-01

Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

Trends in obesity and abdominal obesity in the older adult population of Spain (2000-2010).

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Fisac, Juan Luis; León-Muñoz, Luz M; Regidor, Enrique; Banegas, Josér; Rodríguez-Artalejo, Fernando

2013-01-01

This work examines the trend in obesity and abdominal obesity in the Spanish population aged 60 years and over during the first decade of the 21st century. We analyze data from a representative study of the Spanish population aged 60 years and older conducted in 2000-2001 and from the Study on Nutrition and Cardiovascular Risk in Spain (ENRICA) conducted in 2008-2010. In men, the distribution of BMI did not vary in the period 2000-2010. In contrast, in women there was a reduction in both mean BMI--from 29.3 to 28.8 kg/m2--and the prevalence of obesity--from 40.8 to 36.3%. This decline was greatest in women aged 60-69 years. In men, no significant changes were observed in mean waist circumference (WC) or in the prevalence of abdominal obesity. In contrast, WC decreased by 3.6 cm and abdominal obesity prevalence by 12.7% in women. The decline was greatest in women aged 60-69 years, in whom mean WC decreased by 5.1 cm and abdominal obesity prevalence by 18.6%. These findings show that the frequency of obesity has begun to decline in Spanish women aged 60 and over. The causes of this decline are unclear.

Sea otter population declines in the Aleutian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doroff, Angela M.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Burn, Douglas M.; Evans, Thomas J.

2003-01-01

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations were exploited to near extinction and began to recover after the cessation of commercial hunting in 1911. Remnant colonies of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago were among the first to recover; they continued to increase through the 1980s but declined abruptly during the 1990s. We conducted an aerial survey of the Aleutian archipelago in 2000 and compared results with similar surveys conducted in 1965 and 1992. The number of sea otters counted decreased by 75% between 1965 and 2000; 88% for islands at equilibrial density in 1965. The population decline likely began in the mid-1980s and declined at a rate of 17.5%/year in the 1990s. The minimal population estimate was 8,742 sea otters in 2000. The population declined to a uniformly low density in the archipelago, suggesting a common and geographically widespread cause. These data are in general agreement with the hypothesis of increased predation on sea otters. These data chronicle one of the most widespread and precipitous population declines for a mammalian carnivore in recorded history.

Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

PubMed

Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

2014-05-01

This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can coyotes affect deer populations in Southeastern North America?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilgo, J., C.; Ray, H., Scott; Ruth, Charles

2010-07-01

ABSTRACT The coyote (Canis latrans) is a recent addition to the fauna of eastern North America, and in many areas coyote populations have been established for only a decade or two. Although coyotes are known predators of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in their historic range, effects this new predator may have on eastern deer populations have received little attention. We speculated that in the southeastern United States, coyotes may be affecting deer recruitment, and we present 5 lines of evidence that suggest this possibility. First, the statewide deer population in South Carolina has declined coincident with the establishment and increasemore » in the coyote population. Second, data sets from the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina indicate a new mortality source affecting the deer population concurrent with the increase in coyotes. Third, an index of deer recruitment at SRS declined during the period of increase in coyotes. Fourth, food habits data from SRS indicate that fawns are an important food item for coyotes during summer. Finally, recent research from Alabama documented significant coyote predation on fawns there. Although this evidence does not establish cause and effect between coyotes and observed declines in deer recruitment, we argue that additional research should proactively address this topic in the region. We identified several important questions on the nature of the deer–coyote relationship in the East.« less

Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

PubMed

Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

2016-02-01

The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

Developing a tuberculosis transmission model that accounts for changes in population health.

PubMed

Oxlade, Olivia; Schwartzman, Kevin; Benedetti, Andrea; Pai, Madhukar; Heymann, Jody; Menzies, Dick

2011-01-01

Simulation models are useful in policy planning for tuberculosis (TB) control. To accurately assess interventions, important modifiers of the epidemic should be accounted for in evaluative models. Improvements in population health were associated with the declining TB epidemic in the pre-antibiotic era and may be relevant today. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a TB transmission model that accounted for changes in population health. We developed a deterministic TB transmission model, using reported data from the pre-antibiotic era in England. Change in adjusted life expectancy, used as a proxy for general health, was used to determine the rate of change of key epidemiological parameters. Predicted outcomes included risk of TB infection and TB mortality. The model was validated in the setting of the Netherlands and then applied to modern Peru. The model, developed in the setting of England, predicted TB trends in the Netherlands very accurately. The R(2) value for correlation between observed and predicted data was 0.97 and 0.95 for TB infection and mortality, respectively. In Peru, the predicted decline in incidence prior to the expansion of "Directly Observed Treatment Short Course" (The DOTS strategy) was 3.7% per year (observed = 3.9% per year). After DOTS expansion, the predicted decline was very similar to the observed decline of 5.8% per year. We successfully developed and validated a TB model, which uses a proxy for population health to estimate changes in key epidemiology parameters. Population health contributed significantly to improvement in TB outcomes observed in Peru. Changing population health should be incorporated into evaluative models for global TB control.

Consequences of a demographic bottleneck on genetic structure and variation in the Scandinavian brown bear.

PubMed

Xenikoudakis, G; Ersmark, E; Tison, J-L; Waits, L; Kindberg, J; Swenson, J E; Dalén, L

2015-07-01

The Scandinavian brown bear went through a major decline in population size approximately 100 years ago, due to intense hunting. After being protected, the population subsequently recovered and today numbers in the thousands. The genetic diversity in the contemporary population has been investigated in considerable detail, and it has been shown that the population consists of several subpopulations that display relatively high levels of genetic variation. However, previous studies have been unable to resolve the degree to which the demographic bottleneck impacted the contemporary genetic structure and diversity. In this study, we used mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA markers from pre- and postbottleneck Scandinavian brown bear samples to investigate the effect of the bottleneck. Simulation and multivariate analysis suggested the same genetic structure for the historical and modern samples, which are clustered into three subpopulations in southern, central and northern Scandinavia. However, the southern subpopulation appears to have gone through a marked change in allele frequencies. When comparing the mitochondrial DNA diversity in the whole population, we found a major decline in haplotype numbers across the bottleneck. However, the loss of autosomal genetic diversity was less pronounced, although a significant decline in allelic richness was observed in the southern subpopulation. Approximate Bayesian computations provided clear support for a decline in effective population size during the bottleneck, in both the southern and northern subpopulations. These results have implications for the future management of the Scandinavian brown bear because they indicate a recent loss in genetic diversity and also that the current genetic structure may have been caused by historical ecological processes rather than recent anthropogenic persecution. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increased Airway Wall Thickness is Associated with Adverse Longitudinal First-Second Forced Expiratory Volume Trajectories of Former World Trade Center workers.

PubMed

de la Hoz, Rafael E; Liu, Xiaoyu; Doucette, John T; Reeves, Anthony P; Bienenfeld, Laura A; Wisnivesky, Juan P; Celedón, Juan C; Lynch, David A; San José Estépar, Raúl

2018-05-24

Occupational exposures at the WTC site after September 11, 2001 have been associated with several presumably inflammatory lower airway diseases. In this study, we describe the trajectories of expiratory air flow decline, identify subgroups with adverse progression, and investigate the association of a quantitative computed tomography (QCT) imaging measurement of airway wall thickness, and other risk factors for adverse progression. We examined the trajectories of expiratory air flow decline in a group of 799 former WTC workers and volunteers with QCT-measured (with two independent systems) wall area percent (WAP) and at least 3 periodic spirometries. We calculated individual regression lines for first-second forced expiratory volume (FEV 1 ), identified subjects with rapidly declining and increasing ("gainers"), and compared them to subjects with normal and "stable" FEV 1 decline. We used multivariate logistic regression to model decliner vs. stable trajectories. The mean longitudinal FEV 1 slopes for the entire study population, and its stable, decliner, and gainer subgroups were, respectively, - 35.8, - 8, - 157.6, and + 173.62 ml/year. WAP was associated with "decliner" status (OR adj 1.08, 95% CI 1.02, 1.14, per 5% increment) compared to stable. Age, weight gain, baseline FEV 1 percent predicted, bronchodilator response, and pre-WTC occupational exposures were also significantly associated with accelerated FEV 1 decline. Analyses of gainers vs. stable subgroup showed WAP as a significant predictor in unadjusted but not consistently in adjusted analyses. The apparent normal age-related rate of FEV 1 decline results from averaging widely divergent trajectories. WAP is significantly associated with accelerated air flow decline in WTC workers.

Cassin's Sparrow (Aimophila cassinii) status assessment and conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, Janet M.

2000-01-01

The greatest needs are for determining of the causes of significant declines where they occur, determining of the effects of various management activities on Cassin’s Sparrow throughout its range, improved assessments of population and trends, and a better understanding of the annual population and distribution dynamics of this species, which shows such dramatic annual distributional fluctuations.

Goals and strategies for estimating trends in landbird abundance

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart; Kenneth P. Burnham; Erica H. Dunn; Charles M. Francis; C. John Ralph

2004-01-01

Reliable estimates of trends in population size are critical to effective management of landbirds. We propose a standard for considering that landbird populations are adequately monitored: 80% power to detect a 50% decline occurring within 20 years, using a 2-tailed test and a significance level of 0.10, and incorporating effects of potential bias. Our standard also...

An Address on the Population Problem: Address to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Robert S.

In this speech, Robert McNamara examines the background of the world population problem, analyzes its current trends, evaluates the measures available to deal with it, and suggests actions governments and others can take to help solve it. It now appears that significant fertility decline may have begun in developing countries. Data seem to…

Worldwide status of burbot and conservation measures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Paragamian, Vaughn L.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Jackson, James R.; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Evenson, Matthew J.; Neufeld, Matthew D.

2010-01-01

Although burbot (Lota lota Gadidae) are widespread and abundant throughout much of their natural range, there are many populations that have been extirpated, endangered or are in serious decline. Due in part to the species’ lack of popularity as a game and commercial fish, few regions consider burbot in management plans. We review the worldwide population status of burbot and synthesize reasons why some burbot populations are endangered or declining, some burbot populations have recovered and some burbot populations do not recover despite management measures. Burbot have been extirpated in much of Western Europe and the United Kingdom and are threatened or endangered in much of North America and Eurasia. Pollution and habitat change, particularly the effects of dams, appear to be the main causes for declines in riverine burbot populations. Pollution and the adverse effects of invasive species appear to be the main reasons for declines in lacustrine populations. Warmer water temperatures, due either to discharge from dams or climate change, have been noted in declining burbot populations at the southern extent of their range. Currently, fishing pressure does not appear to be limiting burbot populations world-wide. We suggest mitigation measures for burbot population recovery, particularly those impacted by dams and invasive species.

Synchronous cycling of Ichthyophoniasis with Chinook salmon density revealed during the annual Yukon River spawning migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zuray, Stanley; Kocan, Richard; Hershberger, Paul

2012-01-01

Populations of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Yukon River declined by more than 57% between 2003 and 2010, probably the result of a combination of anthropogenic and environmental factors. One possible contributor to this decline is Ichthyophonus, a mesomycetozoan parasite that has previously been implicated in significant losses of fish, including Chinook salmon. A multiyear epidemiological study of ichthyophoniasis in the Yukon River revealed that disease prevalence and Chinook salmon population abundance increased and decreased simultaneously (i.e., were concordant) from 1999 to 2010. The two values rose and fell synchronously 91% of the time for female Chinook salmon and 82% of the time for males; however, there was no significant correlation between Ichthyophonus prevalence and population abundance. This synchronicity might be explained by a single factor, such as a prey item that is critical to Chinook salmon survival as well as a source of Ichthyophonus infection. The host–parasite relationship between Ichthyophonus and migrating Chinook salmon from 2004 to 2010 was similar to that reported for the previous 5 years. During 2004–2010, overall disease prevalence was significantly higher among females (21%) than among males (8%), increased linearly with fish length for both males and females, and increased in both sexes as the fish progressed upriver. These regularly occurring features of host–parasite dynamics confirm a stable base of transmission for Ichthyophonus. However, from 2003 to 2010, disease prevalence decreased from 30% to just 8% in males and from 45% to 9% in females, paralleling a similar decline in Chinook salmon abundance during the same period. These findings may help clarify questions regarding the complex host–parasite dynamics that occur in marine species such as herrings Clupea spp., which have less well-defined population structures.

[Rural depopulation: 1954-1990].

PubMed

Chauvel, L

1994-10-01

"The purpose of this paper is to present evidence for a long term link between employment and population [in rural France]. A model is built in order to describe the interaction between employment, migration and natural population increase over 1962-1990. This shows how declining departments are bound within a vicious mechanism: while the decline of local employment leads to population outflow, the population decline contributes to a further employment fall." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

Amphibian population genetics in agricultural landscapes: does viniculture drive the population structuring of the European common frog (Rana temporaria)?

PubMed

Lenhardt, Patrick P; Brühl, Carsten A; Leeb, Christoph; Theissinger, Kathrin

2017-01-01

Amphibian populations have been declining globally over the past decades. The intensification of agriculture, habitat loss, fragmentation of populations and toxic substances in the environment are considered as driving factors for this decline. Today, about 50% of the area of Germany is used for agriculture and is inhabited by a diverse variety of 20 amphibian species. Of these, 19 are exhibiting declining populations. Due to the protection status of native amphibian species, it is important to evaluate the effect of land use and associated stressors (such as road mortality and pesticide toxicity) on the genetic population structure of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. We investigated the effects of viniculture on the genetic differentiation of European common frog ( Rana temporaria ) populations in Southern Palatinate (Germany). We analyzed microsatellite data of ten loci from ten breeding pond populations located within viniculture landscape and in the adjacent forest block and compared these results with a previously developed landscape permeability model. We tested for significant correlation of genetic population differentiation and landscape elements, including land use as well as roads and their associated traffic intensity, to explain the genetic structure in the study area. Genetic differentiation among forest populations was significantly lower (median pairwise F ST  = 0.0041 at 5.39 km to 0.0159 at 9.40 km distance) than between viniculture populations (median pairwise F ST  = 0.0215 at 2.34 km to 0.0987 at 2.39 km distance). Our analyses rejected isolation by distance based on roads and associated traffic intensity as the sole explanation of the genetic differentiation and suggest that the viniculture landscape has to be considered as a limiting barrier for R. temporaria migration, partially confirming the isolation of breeding ponds predicted by the landscape permeability model. Therefore, arable land may act as a sink habitat, inhibiting genetic exchange and causing genetic differentiation of pond populations in agricultural areas. In viniculture, pesticides could be a driving factor for the observed genetic impoverishment, since pesticides are more frequently applied than any other management measure and can be highly toxic for terrestrial life stages of amphibians.

Malaria incidence in Myanmar 2005-2014: steady but fragile progress towards elimination.

PubMed

Mu, Thet Thet; Sein, Aye Aye; Kyi, Tint Tint; Min, Myo; Aung, Ne Myo; Anstey, Nicholas M; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Soe, Chit; Kyi, Mar Mar; Hanson, Josh

2016-10-18

There has been an impressive recent reduction in the global incidence of malaria, but the development of artemisinin resistance in the Greater Mekong Region threatens this progress. Increasing artemisinin resistance is particularly important in Myanmar, as it is the country in the Greater Mekong Region with the greatest malaria burden. If malaria is to be eliminated in the region, it is essential to define the spatial and temporal epidemiology of the disease in Myanmar to inform control strategies optimally. Between the years 2005 and 2014 there was an 81.1 % decline in the reported annual incidence of malaria in Myanmar (1341.8 cases per 100,000 population to 253.3 cases per 100,000 population). In the same period, there was a 93.5 % decline in reported annual mortality from malaria (3.79 deaths per 100,000 population to 0.25 deaths per 100,000 population) and a 87.2 % decline in the proportion of hospitalizations due to malaria (7.8 to 1.0 %). Chin State had the highest reported malaria incidence and mortality at the end of the study period, although socio-economic and geographical factors appear a more likely explanation for this finding than artemisinin resistance. The reduced malaria burden coincided with significant upscaling of disease control measures by the national government with support from international partners. These programmes included the training and deployment of over 40,000 community health care workers, the coverage of over 60 % of the at-risk population with insecticide-treated bed nets and significant efforts to improve access to artemesinin-based combination treatment. Beyond these malaria-specific programmes, increased general investment in the health sector, changing population demographics and deforestation are also likely to have contributed to the decline in malaria incidence seen over this time. There has been a dramatic fall in the burden of malaria in Myanmar since 2005. However, with the rise of artemisinin resistance, continued political, financial and scientific commitment is required if the ambitious goal of malaria elimination in the country is to be realized.

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Impaired Sleep Predicts Cognitive Decline in Old People: Findings from the Prospective KORA Age Study.

PubMed

Johar, Hamimatunnisa; Kawan, Rasmila; Emeny, Rebecca Thwing; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

2016-01-01

To investigate the association between sleep-related characteristics and cognitive change over 3 years of follow up in an aged population. Sleep characteristics and covariates were assessed at baseline in a standardized interview and clinical examination of the population-based KORA Age Study (n = 740, mean age = 75 years). Cognitive score (determined by telephone interview for cognitive status, TICS-m) was recorded at baseline and 3 years later. At baseline, 82.83% (n = 613) of participants had normal cognitive status, 13.51% (n = 100) were classified with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 3.64% (n = 27) with probable dementia. The effect of three distinct patterns of poor sleep (difficulties initiating [DIS] or maintaining sleep [DMS], daytime sleepiness [DS] or sleep duration) were considered on a change in cognitive score with adjustments for potential confounders in generalized linear regression models. Cognitive decline was more pronounced in individuals with DMS compared to those with no DMS (β = 1.33, 95% CI = 0.41-2.24, P < 0.001). However, the predictive power of DMS was only significant in individuals with normal cognition and not impaired subjects at baseline. Prolonged sleep duration increased the risk for cognitive decline in cognitively impaired elderly (β = 1.86, 95% CI = 0.15-3.57, P = 0.03). Other sleep characteristics (DIS and DS) were not significantly associated with cognitive decline. DMS and long sleep duration were associated with cognitive decline in normal and cognitively impaired elderly, respectively. The identification of impaired sleep quality may offer intervention strategies to deter cognitive decline in the elderly with normal cognitive function. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Kinship and the decline of fertility.

PubMed

Zhou, Y

1996-01-01

China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

Medical Complications Predict Cognitive Decline in Nondemented Hip Fracture Patients-Results of a Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Hack, Juliana; Eschbach, Daphne; Aigner, Rene; Oberkircher, Ludwig; Ruchholtz, Steffen; Bliemel, Christopher; Buecking, Benjamin

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to identify factors that are associated with cognitive decline in the long-term follow-up after hip fractures in previously nondemented patients. A consecutive series of 402 patients with hip fractures admitted to our university hospital were analyzed. After exclusion of all patients with preexisting dementia, 266 patients were included, of which 188 could be examined 6 months after surgery. Additional to several demographic data, cognitive ability was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Patients with 19 or less points on the MMSE were considered demented. Furthermore, geriatric scores were recorded, as well as perioperative medical complications. Mini-Mental State Examination was performed again 6 months after surgery. Of 188 previously nondemented patients, 12 (6.4%) patients showed a cognitive decline during the 6 months of follow-up. Multivariate regression analysis showed that age ( P = .040) and medical complications ( P = .048) were the only significant independent influencing factors for cognitive decline. In our patient population, the incidence of dementia exceeded the average age-appropriate cognitive decline. Significant independent influencing factors for cognitive decline were age and medical complications.

Cross-linked fibrin degradation products (D-dimer), plasma cytokines, and cognitive decline in community-dwelling elderly persons.

PubMed

Wilson, Craig J; Cohen, Harvey Jay; Pieper, Carl F

2003-10-01

To investigate the effect of coagulation and inflammatory pathway activation on future cognitive decline in older persons. Prospective cohort study. Rural and urban communities in North Carolina. Community-dwelling older people enrolled in the Duke Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly in 1986. In 1992, blood was drawn for assay of D-dimer (1,723 subjects), Interleukin-6 (1,726 subjects), and other cytokines (1,551 subjects). Cognitive and functional assessments were performed in 1986, 1989, 1992, and 1996. Cognition was measured using the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire. Cognitive decline over a 4-year period was significantly correlated (P<.001) with D-dimer, age, race, and physical performance status as measured using the Rosow-Breslau and Nagi instruments. After controlling for demographics, functional status, and comorbidities, D-dimer remained predictive of cognitive decline. Proinflammatory cytokines were not associated with current cognitive status in cross-sectional analyses or with incident cognitive decline in prospective analyses. In a large sample of community-dwelling elders, higher levels of D-dimer were predictive of cognitive decline over a 4-year period. No clinically significant associations were found between age-related peripheral cytokine dysregulation and cognition.

A look at Asia's changing youth population.

PubMed

Xenos, P; Kabamalan, M; Westley, S B

1999-01-01

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection patterns among Panamanian amphibian species, habitats and elevations during epizootic and enzootic stages.

PubMed

Brem, Forrest M R; Lips, Karen R

2008-09-24

The pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused declines of many amphibian populations, yet the full course of the epizootic has rarely been observed in wild populations. We determined effects of elevation, habitat, and aquatic index (AI) on prevalence of infection among Panamanian amphibians sampled along 2 elevational transects. Amphibian populations on the Santa Fé transect (SFT) had declined in 2002, while those on the El Copé transect (ECT) were healthy until September 2004. In 2004 we sampled Bd along both transects, surveying the SFT 2 yr after decline, and surveying the ECT 4 mo prior to the arrival of Bd, during the epizootic, and 2 mo later. Overall prevalence of Bd along the ECT increased from 0.0 (95% CI 0.00-0.0003) to 0.51 (95% CI 0.48-0.55) over a 3 mo period, accompanied by significant decreases in amphibian abundance and species richness in all habitats. Prevalence of infection on the ECT was highest along riparian transects and at higher elevations, but not among levels of AI. Prevalence of infection on the SFT was highest in pool transects, and at higher elevations, but not among levels of AI. Riparian amphibian abundance and species richness also declined at SFT following detection of Bd in 2002. Variation among species, microenvironmental conditions, and the length of coexistence with Bd may contribute to observed differences in prevalence of Bd and in population response.

Colostrum and Mature Human Milk of Women from London, Moscow, and Verona: Determinants of Immune Composition.

PubMed

Munblit, Daniel; Treneva, Marina; Peroni, Diego G; Colicino, Silvia; Chow, LiYan; Dissanayeke, Shobana; Abrol, Priya; Sheth, Shreya; Pampura, Alexander; Boner, Attilio L; Geddes, Donna T; Boyle, Robert J; Warner, John O

2016-11-03

Cytokines and growth factors in colostrum and mature milk may play an important role in infant immune maturation, and may vary significantly between populations. We aimed to examine associations between environmental and maternal factors, and human milk (HM) cytokine and growth factor levels. We recruited 398 pregnant/lactating women in the United Kingdom, Russia, and Italy. Participants underwent skin prick testing, questionnaire interview, and colostrum and mature milk sampling. HM cytokine and growth factor levels were quantified by electro-chemiluminescence. We found significant geographical variation in growth factor levels, but no evidence of variation between sites in cytokine detectability. There was an inverse correlation between time of milk sampling and growth factor levels in colostrum for Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF) and TGFβ1 and TGFβ3, but not TGFβ2, and levels were significantly higher in colostrum than mature milk for all growth factors. The kinetics of decline were different for each growth factor. Cytokines were present at much lower levels than growth factors, and the decline over time was less consistent. HM growth factors and cytokine levels vary between populations for unknown reasons. Levels of HM mediators decline at different rates postpartum, and these findings suggest specific biological roles for HM growth factors and cytokines in early postnatal development.

Colostrum and Mature Human Milk of Women from London, Moscow, and Verona: Determinants of Immune Composition

PubMed Central

Munblit, Daniel; Treneva, Marina; Peroni, Diego G.; Colicino, Silvia; Chow, LiYan; Dissanayeke, Shobana; Abrol, Priya; Sheth, Shreya; Pampura, Alexander; Boner, Attilio L.; Geddes, Donna T.; Boyle, Robert J.; Warner, John O.

2016-01-01

Cytokines and growth factors in colostrum and mature milk may play an important role in infant immune maturation, and may vary significantly between populations. We aimed to examine associations between environmental and maternal factors, and human milk (HM) cytokine and growth factor levels. We recruited 398 pregnant/lactating women in the United Kingdom, Russia, and Italy. Participants underwent skin prick testing, questionnaire interview, and colostrum and mature milk sampling. HM cytokine and growth factor levels were quantified by electro-chemiluminescence. We found significant geographical variation in growth factor levels, but no evidence of variation between sites in cytokine detectability. There was an inverse correlation between time of milk sampling and growth factor levels in colostrum for Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF) and TGFβ1 and TGFβ3, but not TGFβ2, and levels were significantly higher in colostrum than mature milk for all growth factors. The kinetics of decline were different for each growth factor. Cytokines were present at much lower levels than growth factors, and the decline over time was less consistent. HM growth factors and cytokine levels vary between populations for unknown reasons. Levels of HM mediators decline at different rates postpartum, and these findings suggest specific biological roles for HM growth factors and cytokines in early postnatal development. PMID:27827874

Trends in SSBs and snack consumption among children by age, body weight and race/ethnicity

PubMed Central

Bleich, Sara N.; Wolfson, Julia A.

2015-01-01

Objective To describe national trends in discretionary calories from sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) and snacks by age-specific body weight categories and by age- and weight-specific race/ethnicity groups. Examining these sub-populations is important as population averages may mask important differences. Design and Methods We used 24-hour dietary recall data obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2010 among children aged 2 to 19 (N=14,092). Logistic and linear regression methods were used to adjust for multiple covariates and survey design. Results The number of calories from SSBs declined significantly for nearly all age-specific body weight groups. Among overweight or obese children, significant declines in the number of calories from SSBs were observed among Hispanic children aged 2 to 5 (117 kcal vs. 174 kcal) and white adolescents aged 12 to 19 (299 kcal vs. 365 kcal). Significant declines in the number of calories from salty snacks were observed among white children aged 2 to 5 (192 kcal to 134 kcal) and 6 to 11 (273 kcal vs. 200 kcal). Conclusions The decrease in SSB consumption and increase in snack consumption observed in prior research are not uniform when children are examined within sub-groups accounting for age, weight and race/ethnicity. PMID:25919923

Social activity, cognitive decline and dementia risk: a 20-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Marioni, Riccardo E; Proust-Lima, Cecile; Amieva, Helene; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Jacqmin-Gadda, Helene

2015-10-24

Identifying modifiable lifestyle correlates of cognitive decline and risk of dementia is complex, particularly as few population-based longitudinal studies jointly model these interlinked processes. Recent methodological developments allow us to examine statistically defined sub-populations with separate cognitive trajectories and dementia risks. Engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits, social network size, self-perception of feeling well understood, and degree of satisfaction with social relationships were assessed in 2854 participants from the Paquid cohort (mean baseline age 77 years) and related to incident dementia and cognitive change over 20-years of follow-up. Multivariate repeated cognitive information was exploited by defining the global cognitive functioning as the latent common factor underlying the tests. In addition, three latent homogeneous sub-populations of cognitive change and dementia were identified and contrasted according to social environment variables. In the whole population, we found associations between increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits and increased cognitive ability (but not decline) and decreased risk of incident dementia, and between feeling understood and slower cognitive decline. There was evidence for three sub-populations of cognitive aging: fast, medium, and no cognitive decline. The social-environment measures at baseline did not help explain the heterogeneity of cognitive decline and incident dementia diagnosis between these sub-populations. We observed a complex series of relationships between social-environment variables and cognitive decline and dementia. In the whole population, factors such as increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits were related to a decreased risk of dementia. However, in a sub-population analysis, the social-environment variables were not linked to the heterogeneous patterns of cognitive decline and dementia risk that defined the sub-groups.

Are pollinating hawk moths declining in the Northeastern United States? An analysis of collection records

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Increasing attention to pollinators and their role in providing ecosystem services has revealed a paucity of studies on long-term population trends of most insect pollinators in many parts of the world. Because targeted monitoring programs are resource intensive and unlikely to be performed on most insect pollinators, we took advantage of existing collection records to examine long-term trends in northeastern United States populations of 26 species of hawk moths (family Sphingidae) that are presumed to be pollinators. We compiled over 6,600 records from nine museum and 14 private collections that spanned a 112-year period, and used logistic generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine long-term population trends. We controlled for uneven sampling effort by adding a covariate for list length, the number of species recorded during each sampling event. We found that of the 22 species for which there was sufficient data to assess population trends, eight species declined and four species increased in detection probability (the probability of a species being recorded during each year while accounting for effort, climate, and spatial effects in the GLMMs). Of the four species with too few records to statistically assess, two have disappeared from parts of their ranges. None of the four species with diurnal adults showed a trend in detection probability. Two species that are pests of solanaceous crops declined, consistent with a seven-fold drop in the area planted in tobacco and tomato crops. We found some evidence linking susceptibility to parasitoidism by the introduced fly Compsilura concinnata (Tachinidae) to declines. Moths with larvae that feed on vines and trees, where available evidence indicates that the fly is most likely to attack, had a greater propensity to decline than species that use herbs and shrubs as larval host plants. Species that develop in the spring, before Compsilura populations have increased, did not decline. However, restricting the analysis to hawk moth records from areas outside of a “refuge” area where Compsilura does not occur did not significantly increase the intensity of the declines as would be predicted if Compsilura was the primary cause of declines. Forests have recovered over the study period across most of the northeastern U.S., but this does not appear to have been a major factor because host plants of several of the declining species have increased in abundance with forest expansion and maturation. Climate variables used in the GLMMs were not consistently related to moth detection probability. Hawk moth declines may have ecological effects on both the plants pollinated by these species and vertebrate predators of the moths. PMID:28982152

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Differential rate in decline in ovarian reserve markers in women with polycystic ovary syndrome compared with control subjects: results of a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Ahmad, Asima K; Kao, Chia-Ning; Quinn, Molly; Lenhart, Nikolaus; Rosen, Mitchell; Cedars, Marcelle I; Huddleston, Heather

2018-03-01

To estimate rates of ovarian aging in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) subjects versus a community control population. Longitudinal. Tertiary academic center. PCOS subjects diagnosed according to the 2004 Rotterdam criteria were systematically enrolled in a PCOS cohort study. The comparison control subjects were from the Ovarian Aging study, a prospective longitudinal study of ovarian aging in healthy women with regular menstrual cycles. Clinical data collection over two study visits. Antral follicle count (AFC), ovarian volume (OV), and antimüllerian hormone level (AMH). PCOS subjects were found to have higher baseline values for all ovarian reserve markers compared with control subjects. Univariate models indicated that, compared with control subjects, PCOS patients experienced significantly faster rates of decline for both AFC and AMH. Change in OV did not differ significantly. To account for potential confounder effects, multiple analysis of covariance models were evaluated for the best fit, considering age, body mass index, and baseline ovarian reserve markers. Adjusted models demonstrated that PCOS patients do not experience a significant difference in AFC decline compared with control subjects, but they do experience a faster rate of decline in AMH (P<.01) and slower rate of decline in OV (P<.01). Ovarian aging in PCOS is characterized by a more rapid decline in AMH and a slower decline in OV compared with control subjects. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorcas, Michael E.; Wilson, John D.; Reed, Robert N.; Snow, Ray W.; Rochford, Michael R.; Miller, Melissa A.; Meshaka, Walter E.; Andreadis, Paul T.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romagosa, Christina M.; Hart, Kristen M.

2012-01-01

Invasive species represent a significant threat to global biodiversity and a substantial economic burden. Burmese pythons, giant constricting snakes native to Asia, now are found throughout much of southern Florida, including all of Everglades National Park (ENP). Pythons have increased dramatically in both abundance and geographic range since 2000 and consume a wide variety of mammals and birds. Here we report severe apparent declines in mammal populations that coincide temporally and spatially with the proliferation of pythons in ENP. Before 2000, mammals were encountered frequently during nocturnal road surveys within ENP. In contrast, road surveys totaling 56,971 km from 2003–2011 documented a 99.3% decrease in the frequency of raccoon observations, decreases of 98.9% and 87.5% for opossum and bobcat observations, respectively, and failed to detect rabbits. Road surveys also revealed that these species are more common in areas where pythons have been discovered only recently and are most abundant outside the python's current introduced range. These findings suggest that predation by pythons has resulted in dramatic declines in mammals within ENP and that introduced apex predators, such as giant constrictors, can exert significant top-down pressure on prey populations. Severe declines in easily observed and/or common mammals, such as raccoons and bobcats, bode poorly for species of conservation concern, which often are more difficult to sample and occur at lower densities.

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gendell, Murray

This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

Higher Blood Vitamin C Levels are Associated with Reduction of Apolipoprotein E E4-related Risks of Cognitive Decline in Women: The Nakajima Study.

PubMed

Noguchi-Shinohara, Moeko; Abe, Chiemi; Yuki-Nozaki, Sohshi; Dohmoto, Chiaki; Mori, Ayaka; Hayashi, Koji; Shibata, Syutaro; Ikeda, Yoshihisa; Sakai, Kenji; Iwasa, Kazuo; Yokogawa, Masami; Ishimiya, Mai; Nakamura, Hiroyuki; Yokoji, Hidehiro; Komai, Kiyonobu; Nakamura, Hiroyuki; Yamada, Masahito

2018-05-11

Antioxidants like vitamins C and E may minimize the risk for Alzheimer's disease. We examined whether vitamins C and E modify the apolipoprotein E (APOE) E4-related risks for developing cognitive decline. We conducted a population-based prospective study including Japanese residents aged 65 years from Nakajima, Japan. The participants received an evaluation of cognitive function and underwent blood tests including tests for vitamins C and E levels and APOE phenotypes. The APOE E4-by-gender-by-vitamin C or E interactions on developing cognitive decline were analyzed. Of 606 participants with normal cognitive function determined using a baseline survey (2007-2008), 349 completed the follow up survey between 2014 and 2016. In women with APOE E4, significantly reduced risk for cognitive decline was observed for the highest blood vitamin C concentration tertile [multivariate OR 0.10 (95% CI 0.01-0.93)] compared with the lowest tertile. In men without APOE E4, significantly reduced risk for cognitive decline was observed for the highest blood vitamin E concentration tertile [multivariate OR 0.19 (0.05-0.74)] as compared with the lowest tertile. Our results demonstrate significant beneficial effects of vitamins C and E in reducing the risk of cognitive decline in women with APOE E4 and men without APOE E4, respectively.

Distribution, population status and trends of kittlitz's murrelet brachyramphus brevirostris in lower cook inlet and kachemak bay, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuletz, Kathy J.; Speckman, Suzann G.; Piatt, John F.; Labunski, E.A.

2011-01-01

Lower Cook Inlet (LCI) in south-central Alaska is unusual among the breeding areas of Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris because of human impacts on the marine and terrestrial environments and because of the lack of tidewater glaciers. In LCI the Kittlitz's Murrelet co-exists with the more abundant Marbled Murrelet, which complicates abundance estimates because of the difficulty of species identification. We compared survey data for an area with overlapping coverage in LCI (Core area) in 1993 (June) and from 1996 to 1999 (July-early August). Within this LCI Core area, the surveys in 1996-1999 estimated ~1600 Kittlitz's Murrelets and ~17 000 Marbled Murrelets, including prorated unidentified murrelets. The Kittlitz's Murrelet population declined between 1993 and 1999 at 26% per annum (84% overall). Simultaneously, Marbled Murrelets declined by 12% per annum (56% overall), though the decline was not statistically significant. Declines were estimated conservatively because the 1993 survey was conducted in June, when both murrelet species are less abundant on the water. We also surveyed Kachemak Bay, a large embayment of LCI, during mid-summer (July) of 2005-2007 and estimated a population of 2047 Kittlitz's Murrelets (SD 1120, n = 3 years) residing primarily in the inner bay. Marbled Murrelets numbered 11 040 (SD 1306) and were found throughout the bay. On one transect set in inner Kachemak Bay, Kittlitz's Murrelet density in late summer (1-16 August) declined 7.5% per annum between 1988 and 2007 (n = 6 years), and Marbled Murrelet density increased 4.9% per annum. On two other transect sets in the inner bay, however, neither murrelet species showed a change in density between 1996 and 2007. Inner Kachemak Bay is a persistent hotspot for Kittlitz's Murrelet and may attract murrelets from LCI and beyond. We recommend monitoring murrelet populations in Kachemak Bay, although Kittlitz's Murrelets likely move between the main body of Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay, and a complete LCI survey is needed to gauge regional population trends.

Decline of disjunct green salamander (Aneides aeneus) populations in the southern appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corser, J.D.

2001-01-01

Coincident with other amphibians around the world Aneides aeneus, a terrestrial plethodontid salamander, suffered a population collapse in a disjunct portion of its range in the mid-late 1970s. Long-term monitoring of seven historical green salamander populations throughout the 1990s showed a 98% decline in relative abundance since 1970. Three out of six populations first discovered in 1991 also crashed in 1996-1997. The synchronized suddenness of the declines, their region-wide impact, and effects on both small and larger populations, suggest the role of a novel agent of mortality beginning in the mid-late 1970s. Acting alone, but more likely in concert, habitat loss, overcollecting, epidemic disease and climate change could account for this region-wide decline.

Population dynamics of white-winged scoters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, D.G.; Brown, P.W.; Kehoe, F.P.; Houston, C.S.

1997-01-01

A significant (P < 0.01) decline between 1961 and 1993 in ratio of harvested young per adult in the Atlantic Flyway (age ration) of white-winged scoters (Melanitta fusca) led us to examine annual survival rates and harvest of this species. Compared to waterfowl with similar life histories, black scoters (M. nigra) and surf scoters (M. perspicillata), the decline in age ratios of white-winged scoter age ratios was not significantly different (P = 0.11). Adult females banded at Redberry Lake, Saskatchewan that winter along both coasts, had high annual survival rates (0.773 plus or minus 0.0176 [SE]). High harvest in the Atlantic Flyway was not followed by an increase in production (age ratios) the following year or 2, i.e., there was no short-term rebound in recruitment by the population. Harvest of white-winged scoters in the Atlantic Flyway was explained by the age ratio in the fall flight and by hunter effort.

Dramatic declines in neotropical salamander populations are an important part of the global amphibian crisis

PubMed Central

Rovito, Sean M.; Parra-Olea, Gabriela; Vásquez-Almazán, Carlos R.; Papenfuss, Theodore J.; Wake, David B.

2009-01-01

We document major declines of many species of salamanders at several sites in Central America and Mexico, with emphasis on the San Marcos region of Guatemala, one of the best studied and most diverse salamander communities in the Neotropics. Profound declines of several formerly abundant species, including 2 apparent extinctions, are revealed. Terrestrial microhabitat specialists at mid- to high elevations have declined more than microhabitat generalists. These terrestrial microhabitat specialists have largely disappeared from multiple sites in western Guatemala, including in well-protected areas, suggesting that the phenomenon cannot be explained solely by localized habitat destruction. Major declines in southern Mexican plethodontid salamanders occurred in the late 1970s to early 1980s, concurrent with or preceding many reported frog declines. The species in decline comprise several major evolutionary lineages of tropical salamanders, underscoring that significant portions of the phylogenetic diversity of Neotropical salamanders are at risk. Our results highlight the urgent need to document and understand Neotropical salamander declines as part of the larger effort to conserve global amphibian diversity. PMID:19204286

The effects of island forest restoration on open habitat specialists: the endangered weevil Hadramphus spinipennis Broun and its host-plant Aciphylla dieffenbachii Kirk.

PubMed

Fountain, Emily D; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Cruickshank, Robert H; Paterson, Adrian M

2015-01-01

Human alteration of islands has made restoration a key part of conservation management. As islands are restored to their original state, species interactions change and some populations may be impacted. In this study we examine the coxella weevil, (Hadramphus spinipennis Broun) and its host-plant Dieffenbach's speargrass (Aciphylla dieffenbachii Kirk), which are both open habitat specialists with populations on Mangere and Rangatira Islands, Chathams, New Zealand. Both of these islands were heavily impacted by the introduction of livestock; the majority of the forest was removed and the weevil populations declined due to the palatability of their host-plant to livestock. An intensive reforestation program was established on both islands over 50 years ago but the potential impacts of this restoration project on the already endangered H. spinipennis are poorly understood. We combined genetic and population data from 1995 and 2010-2011 to determine the health and status of these species on both islands. There was some genetic variation between the weevil populations on each island but little variation within the species as a whole. The interactions between the weevil and its host-plant populations appear to remain intact on Mangere, despite forest regeneration. A decline in weevils and host-plant on Rangatira does not appear to be caused by canopy regrowth. We recommend that (1) these populations be monitored for ongoing effects of long-term reforestation, (2) the cause of the decline on Rangatira be investigated, and (3) the two populations of weevils be conserved as separate evolutionarily significant units.

Declines in the breeding population of Vaux's Swifts in northeastern Oregon.

Treesearch

Evelyn L. Bull

2003-01-01

I investigated trends in the breeding population of Vaux's Swift (Chaetura vauxi) in northeastern Oregon by revisiting in 2003 39 stands of trees that contained swifts in 1991. In 2003 the number of swifts in these stands was significantly fewer, with only 46% of the stands still containing swifts. Only 29% of the 58 nest and roost trees the...

Trends in snag populations in Northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, 1997-2012

Treesearch

J. L. Ganey; S. C. Vojta

2014-01-01

We monitored snag populations in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, northern Arizona, at 5-yr intervals from 1997-2012. Snag density increased from 1997-2007 in both forest types, with accelerated change due to drought-related tree mortality during the period 2002-2007. Snag density declined non-significantly from 2007-2012,...

Longitudinal association of hypertension and diabetes mellitus with cognitive functioning in a general 70-year-old population: the SONIC study.

PubMed

Ryuno, Hirochika; Kamide, Kei; Gondo, Yasuyuki; Kabayama, Mai; Oguro, Ryosuke; Nakama, Chikako; Yokoyama, Serina; Nagasawa, Motonori; Maeda-Hirao, Satomi; Imaizumi, Yuki; Takeya, Miyuki; Yamamoto, Hiroko; Takeda, Masao; Takami, Yoichi; Itoh, Norihisa; Takeya, Yasushi; Yamamoto, Koichi; Sugimoto, Ken; Nakagawa, Takeshi; Yasumoto, Saori; Ikebe, Kazunori; Inagaki, Hiroki; Masui, Yukie; Takayama, Michiyo; Arai, Yasumichi; Ishizaki, Tatsuro; Takahashi, Ryutaro; Rakugi, Hiromi

2017-07-01

Both hypertension and diabetes in middle-aged individuals have been suggested to be predictive indicators of cognitive decline. However, the association of hypertension, diabetes and their combination with cognitive functioning is still controversial in older people. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between cognitive decline and hypertension, diabetes, and their combination in 70-year-old people based on a 3-year longitudinal analysis. Four hundred and fifty-four people aged 70 (±1) years who participated in the Japanese longitudinal cohort study of Septuagenarians, Octogenarians and Nonagenarians Investigation with Centenarians (SONIC) were recruited randomly from a general population and were monitored for 3 years. The data, including most of the demographics, cognitive functioning measured by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Japanese version (MoCA-J), blood pressure, blood chemistry and other medical histories, were collected at baseline and during the follow-up. The prevalence of hypertension noted in the follow-up survey was significantly higher than than noted at baseline. The mean MoCA-J score at follow-up was not significantly different from the score obtained at baseline. However, the participants with diabetes, especially combined with hypertension at baseline, had significantly lower MoCA-J scores than those without lifestyle-related diseases. The combination of hypertension and diabetes was still a significant risk factor for cognitive decline, considering the MoCA-J scores obtained during the follow-up after adjustments at baseline, relative to sex, body mass index, dyslipidemia, smoking, excessive alcohol intake, antihypertensive treatment and education level (β=-0.14; P<0.01). Our findings indicate that diabetes and the combination of hypertension and diabetes are clear risk factors for future cognitive decline in elderly individuals who are 70 years of age.

Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

PubMed

Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

2014-10-01

India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

PubMed

Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

2017-01-01

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Evidence of shallow mitochondrial divergence in the slender armorhead, Pentaceros wheeleri (Pisces, Pentacerotidae) from the Emperor Seamount Chain.

PubMed

Bae, Seung Eun; Kim, Hanna; Choi, Seok-Gwan; Kim, Jin-Koo

2018-01-12

Competitive overexploitation of the slender armorhead, Pentaceros wheeleri, a deep-sea fish inhabiting the Emperor Seamount Chain caused a serious population decline. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to clarify its genetic diversity and connectivity among populations of P. wheeleri for appropriate stock management. For this, we compared 677 base pairs (bp) of mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region (CR) sequences of 80 individuals from three seamounts (the Milwaukee, Kinmei, and Koko Seamounts) in the southern part of the Emperor Seamount Chain. Contrary to our expectation, the three seamount populations showed high genetic diversity, not yet reflecting effects from the recent population decline or due to mixed two clades. Analysis of molecular variance indicated no significant genetic differentiation between seamount populations, however, the neighbour-joining tree and minimum spanning network showed significant separation into two clades (K2P distance= 1.2-3.2%, ϕ st  = 0.5739, p < .05) regardless of seamount. The divergence time between the two clades was estimated to be 0.3-0.8 Mya, during the period of Pleistocene glacial cycles, suggesting that associated environmental changes and the unique life history traits of Pentaceros spp. might have resulted in the initiation of divergence between these clades.

Evolving epidemiology of HIV-associated malignancies.

PubMed

Shiels, Meredith S; Engels, Eric A

2017-01-01

The purpose of this review is to describe the epidemiology of cancers that occur at an elevated rate among people with HIV infection in the current treatment era, including discussion of the cause of these cancers, as well as changes in cancer incidence and burden over time. Rates of Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and cervical cancer have declined sharply in developed countries during the highly active antiretroviral therapy era, but remain elevated 800-fold, 10-fold and four-fold, respectively, compared with the general population. Most studies have reported significant increases in liver cancer rates and decreases in lung cancer over time. Although some studies have reported significant increases in anal cancer rates and declines in Hodgkin lymphoma rates, others have shown stable incidence. Declining mortality among HIV-infected individuals has resulted in the growth and aging of the HIV-infected population, causing an increase in the number of non-AIDS-defining cancers diagnosed each year in HIV-infected people. The epidemiology of cancer among HIV-infected people has evolved since the beginning of the HIV epidemic with particularly marked changes since the introduction of modern treatment. Public health interventions aimed at prevention and early detection of cancer among HIV-infected people are needed.

AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

PubMed Central

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root. PMID:20534600

Aging, health, and the "electronic church".

PubMed

Hays, J C; Landerman, L R; Blazer, D G; Koenig, H G; Carroll, J W; Musick, M A

1998-11-01

We tested whether elders substitute religious media use for church attendance when health declines (using multidimensional disengagement theory) with data from a multiracial, population-based sample in the Bible Belt (N = 2,971). In adjusted models, 3-year declines in functional status were significantly associated with concurrent reduction in frequency of church attendance but not with any change in rates of religious media (TV/radio) use. Age-related declines in church attendance were substantively explained by declining functional ability. Changes in religious media use were independent of age and less sensitive to declining functional status or service attendance than to cultural heritage such as race, socioeconomic status, and rural upbringing. Our data do not support the hypothesis that elders with deteriorating health substitute increased engagement with religious media as their participation in organizational religious activities is reduced. However, applicability of the substitution hypothesis to other dimensions of nonorganizational religiousness (e.g., prayer) awaits similar scrutiny.

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations

PubMed Central

French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Abstract Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction. PMID:27293710

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations.

PubMed

Maute, Kimberly; French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction.

Genomic Consequences of Population Decline in the Endangered Florida Scrub-Jay.

PubMed

Chen, Nancy; Cosgrove, Elissa J; Bowman, Reed; Fitzpatrick, John W; Clark, Andrew G

2016-11-07

Understanding the population genetic consequences of declining population size is important for conserving the many species worldwide facing severe decline [1]. Thorough empirical studies on the impacts of population reduction at a genome-wide scale in the wild are scarce because they demand huge field and laboratory investments [1, 2]. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of gene flow in introducing genetic variation to small populations [3], but few have documented both genetic and fitness consequences of decreased immigration through time in a natural population [4-6]. Here we assess temporal variation in gene flow, inbreeding, and fitness using longitudinal genomic, demographic, and phenotypic data from a long-studied population of federally Threatened Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). We exhaustively sampled and genotyped the study population over two decades, providing one of the most detailed longitudinal investigations of genetics in a wild animal population to date. Immigrants were less heterozygous than residents but still introduced genetic variation into our study population. Owing to regional population declines, immigration into the study population declined from 1995-2013, resulting in increased levels of inbreeding and reduced fitness via inbreeding depression, even as the population remained demographically stable. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, small peripheral populations that already have undergone a genetic bottleneck may play a vital role in preserving genetic diversity of larger and seemingly stable populations. These findings underscore the importance of investing in the persistence of small populations and maintaining population connectivity in conservation of fragmented species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Predictors of verbal memory decline following temporal lobe surgery].

PubMed

de Vanssay-Maigne, A; Boutin, M; Baudoin-Chial, S

2008-05-01

Verbal memory decline can occur after temporal lobe surgery, especially when the left dominant hemisphere is involved. This potential functional risk must be evaluated before surgery. Among all factors that have been identified by several studies, the side of surgery (left dominant) and high baseline memory performance have been found to be predictive of verbal memory decline. Other factors such as etiology, sex, age at surgery, age at seizure onset, and duration may influence memory decline, but the results are not clear. Our purpose was to identify, in our population of patients and among all risk factors, those that may be predictive of verbal memory decline. Logistic regression was used to examine the effect of each factor on the postoperative verbal memory index (WMS-R) in 101 patients who underwent a right (n=49) or left (n=52) anterior temporal lobe resection. In the group as a whole, 22 % of the patients demonstrated verbal memory decline of more than one standard deviation. The verbal memory decline was significantly related to surgery on the left side and a high level of verbal memory performance. These factors were significant predictors of decline. The other factors (etiology, sex, age at surgery, age at seizure onset, and duration) were not found to be predictive of this decline. Our analysis demonstrates that the patients who are most at risk of undergoing verbal memory deterioration are those who undergo left-sided temporal resection and have good memory scores preoperatively. The contradictions found in the literature about the other factors could be explained by the diversity of the tests and criteria used to assess memory decline.

Reproductive change in Bangladesh: evidence from recent data.

PubMed

Amin, R; Chowdhury, J; Ahmed, A U; Hill, R B; Kabir, M

1993-12-01

This analysis pertains to an examination of fertility trends, differences, contraceptive use, and fertility preferences in Bangladesh. Data were obtained from the 1969 National Impact Survey of Family Planning; the 1975 and 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Surveys; and the 1983, 1985, and 1991 Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR), current pregnancy rates, and the mean number of children ever born (CEB) are the estimated fertility measures. The P/F ratios show a significant fertility decline since 1983. Total marital fertility declined from 7 births in the 1960s to 5.2 in the late 1980s. The average number of CEB declined from 4.3 in 1969 to 3.7 in 1991. The percentage of pregnant women declined from 13.3 to 10.6. The ASFR declined primarily among older married women. Fertility declined among all groups including landowners and landless, the educated and the uneducated, rural and urban populations. The extent of decline varies by group. The total marital fertility rate (TMFR) declined more for the educated and the urban populations. Chittagong region had the higher fertility regardless of the period. TMFR was lower among contraceptive users compared to nonusers. The increase in contraceptive use was from 4 to 40% between 1969 and 1991. The following factors affected the extent of fertility decline: contraceptive use, reduced child mortality concomitant with extended lactation and amenorrhea, increased malnutrition, and/or improvements in child survival. Fertility was depressed under conditions of increased poverty, which may stimulate contraceptive use and lead to malnutrition and subfecundity. The higher Chittagong fertility pattern is not explained by regional comparisons of pregnancy wastage, stillbirths, and induced abortion. Desire for no more children increased from 46 to 58% during 1969-91. The average preferred family size is declining. High density and deep-seated poverty explain fertility decline in regions other than Chittagong. Demand for contraception may increase with increases in family planning home visits and educational opportunities.

Relaxation of risk-sensitive behaviour of prey following disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Hollings, Tracey; McCallum, Hamish; Kreger, Kaely; Mooney, Nick; Jones, Menna

2015-01-01

Apex predators structure ecosystems through lethal and non-lethal interactions with prey, and their global decline is causing loss of ecological function. Behavioural changes of prey are some of the most rapid responses to predator decline and may act as an early indicator of cascading effects. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), an apex predator, is undergoing progressive and extensive population decline, of more than 90% in long-diseased areas, caused by a novel disease. Time since local disease outbreak correlates with devil population declines and thus predation risk. We used hair traps and giving-up densities (GUDs) in food patches to test whether a major prey species of devils, the arboreal common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), is responsive to the changing risk of predation when they forage on the ground. Possums spend more time on the ground, discover food patches faster and forage more to a lower GUD with increasing years since disease outbreak and greater devil population decline. Loss of top–down effects of devils with respect to predation risk was evident at 90% devil population decline, with possum behaviour indistinguishable from a devil-free island. Alternative predators may help to maintain risk-sensitive anti-predator behaviours in possums while devil populations remain low. PMID:26085584

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Contaminants and sea ducks in Alaska and the circumpolar region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, Charles J.; Rudis, Deborah D.; Roffe, Thomas J.; Robinson-Wilson, Everett

1995-01-01

We review nesting sea duck population declines in Alaska during recent decades and explore the possibility that contaminants may be implicated. Aerial surveys of the surf scoter (Melanitta perspicillata), white-winged scoter (M. fusca), black scoter (M. nigra), oldsquaw (Clangula hyemalis), spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri), and Steller's eider (Polysticta stelleri) show long-term breeding population declines, especially the latter three species. The spectacled eider was recently classified threatened under the Endangered Species Act. In addition, three other diving ducks, which commonly winter in coastal areas, have declined from unknown causes. Large die-offs of all three species of scoters during molt, a period of high energy demand, were documented in August 1990, 1991, and 1992 at coastal reefs in southeastern Alaska. There was no evidence of infectious diseases in those scoters. The die-offs may or may not be associated with the long-term declines. Many scoters had elevated renal concentrations of cadmium (high of 375 μg/g dry weight [dw]). Effects of cadmium in sea ducks are not well understood. Selenium concentrations in livers of nesting white-winged scoters were high; however, the eggs they laid contained less selenium than expected based on relationships for freshwater bird species. Histological evaluation found a high prevalence of hepatocellular vacuolation (49%), a degenerative change frequently associated with sublethal toxic insult. Cadmium and selenium mean liver concentrations were generally higher in those birds with more severe vacuolation; however, relationships were not statistically significant. We do not know if sea duck population declines are related to metals or other contaminants.

Contaminants and sea ducks in Alaska and the circumpolar region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, C.J.; Rudis, D.D.; Roffe, T.J.; Robinson-Wilson, E.

1995-01-01

We review nesting sea duck population declines in Alaska during recent decades and explore the possibility that contaminants may be implicated. Aerial surveys of the surf scoter (Melanitta perspicillata) , white-winged scoter (M. fusca) , black scoter (M. nigra) , oldsquaw (Clangula hyemalis) , spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri) , and Steller's eider (Polysticta stelleri) show long-term breeding population declines, especially the latter three species. The spectacled eider was recently classified threatened under the Endangered Species Act. In addition, three other diving ducks, which commonly winter in coastal areas, have declined from unknown causes. Large die-offs of all three species of scoters during molt, a period of high energy demand, were documented in August 1990, 1991, and 1992 at coastal reefs in southeastern Alaska. There was no evidence of infectious diseases in those scoters. The die-offs may or may not be associated with the long-term declines. Many scoters had elevated renal concentrations of cadmium (high of 375 ?g/g dry weight [dw]). Effects of cadmium in sea ducks are not well understood. Selenium concentrations in livers of nesting white-winged scoters were high ; however, the eggs they laid contained less selenium than expected based on relationships for freshwater bird species. Histological evaluation found a high prevalence of hepatocellular vacuolation (49%) , a degenerative change frequently associated with sublethal toxic insult. Cadmium and selenium mean liver concentrations were generally higher in those birds with more severe vacuolation ; however, relationships were not statistically significant. We do not know if sea duck population declines are related to metals or other contaminants.

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2002-01-01

Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

2017-09-20

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, Paul Stephen

1994-01-01

The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the upper Midwest (Gibbs et al. 1971, Hine, 1981, Rittshof 1975).

Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

1977-01-01

Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

PubMed Central

Steiber, Nadia

2015-01-01

This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

Projected response of an endangered marine turtle population to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Stock, Charles A.; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

2012-11-01

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on individual species and populations is essential for the stewardship of ecosystems and biodiversity. Critically endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific Ocean are excellent candidates for such an assessment because their sensitivity to contemporary climate variability has been substantially studied. If incidental fisheries mortality is eliminated, this population still faces the challenge of recovery in a rapidly changing climate. Here we combined an Earth system model, climate model projections assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a population dynamics model to estimate a 7% per decade decline in the Costa Rica nesting population over the twenty-first century. Whereas changes in ocean conditions had a small effect on the population, the ~2.5°C warming of the nesting beach was the primary driver of the decline through reduced hatching success and hatchling emergence rate. Hatchling sex ratio did not substantially change. Adjusting nesting phenology or changing nesting sites may not entirely prevent the decline, but could offset the decline rate. However, if future observations show a long-term decline in hatching success and emergence rate, anthropogenic climate mitigation of nests (for example, shading, irrigation) may be able to preserve the nesting population.

Clinical characteristics in patients with asymmetric idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

PubMed

Callahan, Sean J; Xia, Meng; Murray, Susan; Flaherty, Kevin R

2016-10-01

A group of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) presents with disease affecting one lung markedly more than the other. At this time, it is unclear how this population differs from those who present with more symmetric disease. We sought to explain the characteristics of the asymmetric group and how their disease progresses. In this retrospective case-control study we accessed an interstitial lung disease (ILD) database and identified 14 asymmetric IPF cases via high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scoring of each lung lobe's disease severity. We identified 28 symmetric IPF controls from the same database using the same methods, and compared the clinical features of each group. Patients with asymmetric disease exhibited similar demographics as those in the general IPF population; they were predominantly male (64%), elderly (69 years old), and used tobacco (57%). We found a trend toward significantly increased all-cause mortality in the case population two years following diagnosis (p = 0.089). Pulmonary function tests were significantly lower in the case group at the time of diagnosis, then both groups experienced gradual decline. We found no statistically significant differences in number of IPF exacerbations (cases 43%, controls 39%, p = 0.824) and gastro-esophageal reflux (both groups 50%). Patients with asymmetric IPF resemble patients in the general IPF population but may have a lower overall survival rate. Further systemic factors may be studied to identify reasons for disease asymmetry and clinical decline in this population. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

PubMed

Zavala De Cosio, M E

1993-01-01

This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place Mexican fertility trends in the context of the demographic transition and to observe the functioning and effects of demographic programs.

Neonicotinoid pesticide reduces bumble bee colony growth and queen production.

PubMed

Whitehorn, Penelope R; O'Connor, Stephanie; Wackers, Felix L; Goulson, Dave

2012-04-20

Growing evidence for declines in bee populations has caused great concern because of the valuable ecosystem services they provide. Neonicotinoid insecticides have been implicated in these declines because they occur at trace levels in the nectar and pollen of crop plants. We exposed colonies of the bumble bee Bombus terrestris in the laboratory to field-realistic levels of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid, then allowed them to develop naturally under field conditions. Treated colonies had a significantly reduced growth rate and suffered an 85% reduction in production of new queens compared with control colonies. Given the scale of use of neonicotinoids, we suggest that they may be having a considerable negative impact on wild bumble bee populations across the developed world.

Average household exposure to newspaper coverage about the harmful effects of hormone therapy and population-based declines in hormone therapy use.

PubMed

Haas, Jennifer S; Miglioretti, Diana L; Geller, Berta; Buist, Diana S M; Nelson, David E; Kerlikowske, Karla; Carney, Patricia A; Dash, Sarah; Breslau, Erica S; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel

2007-01-01

The news media facilitated the rapid dissemination of the findings from the estrogen plus progestin therapy arm of the Women's Health Initiative (EPT-WHI). To examine the relationship between the potential exposure to newspaper coverage and subsequent hormone therapy (HT) use. DESIGN/POPULATION: Population-based cohort of women receiving mammography at 7 sites (327,144 postmenopausal women). The outcome was the monthly prevalence of self-reported HT use. Circulation data for local, regional, and national newspapers was used to create zip-code level measures of the estimated average household exposure to newspaper coverage that reported the harmful effects of HT in July 2002. Women had an average potential household exposure of 1.4 articles. There was substantial variation in the level of average household exposure to newspaper coverage; women from rural sites received less than women from urban sites. Use of HT declined for all average potential exposure groups after the publication of the EPT-WHI. HT prevalence among women who lived in areas where there was an average household exposure of at least 3 articles declined significantly more (45 to 27%) compared to women who lived in areas with <1 article (43 to 31%) during each of the subsequent 5 months (relative risks 0.86-0.92; p < .006 for all). Greater average household exposure to newspaper coverage about the harms associated with HT was associated with a large population-based decline in HT use. Further studies should examine whether media coverage directly influences the health behavior of individual women.

Conservation genetics of extremely isolated urban populations of the northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) in New York City

PubMed Central

Zak, Yana; Pehek, Ellen

2013-01-01

Urbanization is a major cause of amphibian decline. Stream-dwelling plethodontid salamanders are particularly susceptible to urbanization due to declining water quality and hydrological changes, but few studies have examined these taxa in cities. The northern dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) was once common in the New York City metropolitan area, but has substantially declined throughout the region in recent decades. We used five tetranucleotide microsatellite loci to examine population differentiation, genetic variation, and bottlenecks among five remnant urban populations of dusky salamanders in NYC. These genetic measures provide information on isolation, prevalence of inbreeding, long-term prospects for population persistence, and potential for evolutionary responses to future environmental change. All populations were genetically differentiated from each other, and the most isolated populations in Manhattan have maintained very little genetic variation (i.e. <20% heterozygosity). A majority of the populations also exhibited evidence of genetic bottlenecks. These findings contrast with published estimates of high genetic variation within and lack of structure between populations of other desmognathine salamanders sampled over similar or larger spatial scales. Declines in genetic variation likely resulted from population extirpations and the degradation of stream and terrestrial paths for dispersal in NYC. Loss of genetic variability in populations isolated by human development may be an underappreciated cause and/or consequence of the decline of this species in urbanized areas of the northeast USA. PMID:23646283

The impact of the 2007-2009 recession on workers' health coverage.

PubMed

Fronstin, Paul

2011-04-01

IMPACT OF THE RECESSION: The 2007-2009 recession has taken its toll on the percentage of the population with employment-based health coverage. While, since 2000, there has been a slow erosion in the percentage of individuals under age 65 with employment-based health coverage, 2009 was the first year in which the percentage fell below 60 percent, and marked the largest one-year decline in coverage. FEWER WORKERS WITH COVERAGE: The percentage of workers with coverage through their own job fell from 53.2 percent in 2008 to 52 percent in 2009, a 2.4 percent decline in the likelihood that a worker has coverage through his or her own job. The percentage of workers with coverage as a dependent fell from 17 percent in 2008 to 16.3 percent in 2009, a 4.5 percent drop in the likelihood that a worker has coverage as a dependent. These declines occurred as the unemployment rate increased from an average of 5.8 percent in 2008 to 9.3 percent in 2009 (and reached a high of 10.1 percent during 2009). FIRM SIZE/INDUSTRY: The decline in the percentage of workers with coverage from their own job affected workers in private-sector firms of all sizes. Among public-sector workers, the decline from 73.4 percent to 73 percent was not statistically significant. Workers in all private-sector industries experienced a statistically significant decline in coverage between 2008 and 2009. HOURS WORKED: Full-time workers experienced a decline in coverage that was statistically significant while part-time workers did not. Among full-time workers, those employed full year experienced a statistically significant decline in coverage from their own job. Those employed full time but for only part of the year did not experience a statistically significant change in coverage. Among part-time workers, those employed full year experienced a statistically significant increase in the likelihood of having coverage in their own name, as did part-time workers employed for only part of the year. ANNUAL EARNINGS: The decline in the percentage of workers with coverage through their own job was limited to workers with lower annual earnings. Statistically significant declines were not found among any group of workers with annual earnings of at least $40,000. Workers with a high school education or less experienced a statistically significant decline in the likelihood of having coverage. Neither workers with a college degree nor those with a graduate degree experienced a statistically significant decline in coverage through their own job. Workers of all races experienced statistically significant declines in coverage between 2008 and 2009. Both men and women experienced a statistically significant decline in the percentage with health coverage through their own job. IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE WORK FORCE: The movement of workers from the manufacturing industry to the service sector continued between 2008 and 2009. The percentage of workers employed on a full-time basis decreased while the percentage working part time increased. While there was an overall decline in the percentage of full-time workers, that decline was limited to workers employed full year. The percentage of workers employed on a full-time, part-year basis increased between 2008 and 2009. The distribution of workers by annual earnings shifted from middle-income workers to lower-income workers between 2008 and 2009.

Pretreatment rate of decay in forced vital capacity predicts long-term response to pirfenidone in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

PubMed

Biondini, Davide; Balestro, Elisabetta; Lacedonia, Donato; Cerri, Stefania; Milaneschi, Rosanna; Luppi, Fabrizio; Cocconcelli, Elisabetta; Bazzan, Erica; Clini, Enrico; Foschino Barbaro, Maria Pia; Gregori, Dario; Cosio, Manuel G; Saetta, Marina; Spagnolo, Paolo

2018-04-13

Pirfenidone reduces functional decline in patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF). However, response to treatment is highly heterogeneous. We sought to evaluate whether response to pirfenidone is influenced by the pretreatment rate of forced vital capacity (FVC) decline. Fifty-six IPF patients were categorized as rapid (RP) or slow progressors (SP) based on whether their FVC decline in the year preceding pirfenidone treatment was > or ≤ 10% predicted. Following pirfenidone treatment patients were followed-up every 6 months and up to 24 months. In the entire population, pirfenidone reduced significantly FVC decline from 231 to 49 ml/year at 6 months (T6) (p = 0.003) and this effect was maintained at the 12-, 18- and 24-month time points (p value for trend n.s.). In RP, the reduction of FVC decline was evident at 6 months (36 vs 706 ml/year pretreatment; p = 0.002) and maintained, though to a lesser degree, at 12 (106 ml/year), 18 (176 ml/year) and 24 months (162 ml/year; p value for trend n.s). Among SP, the reduction in FVC decline was not significant at any of the time points analyzed. In conclusion, pirfenidone reduces FVC decline in IPF patients. However, its beneficial effect is more pronounced in patients with rapidly progressive disease.

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Microsatellite variation reveals weak genetic structure and retention of genetic variability in threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a Snake River watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, Helen; Issacs, Frank B.; Thurow, Russel; Dunham, J.B.; Rieman, B.

2007-01-01

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have been central to the development of management concepts associated with evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), yet there are still relatively few studies of genetic diversity within threatened and endangered ESUs for salmon or other species. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci to evaluate spatial population structure and genetic variability in indigenous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) across a large wilderness basin within a Snake River ESU. Despite dramatic 20th century declines in abundance, these populations retained robust levels of genetic variability. No significant genetic bottlenecks were found, although the bottleneck metric (M ratio) was significantly correlated with average population size and variability. Weak but significant genetic structure existed among tributaries despite evidence of high levels of gene flow, with the strongest genetic differentiation mirroring the physical segregation of fish from two sub-basins. Despite the more recent colonization of one sub-basin and differences between sub-basins in the natural level of fragmentation, gene diversity and genetic differentiation were similar between sub-basins. Various factors, such as the (unknown) genetic contribution of precocial males, genetic compensation, lack of hatchery influence, and high levels of current gene flow may have contributed to the persistence of genetic variability in this system in spite of historical declines. This unique study of indigenous Chinook salmon underscores the importance of maintaining natural populations in interconnected and complex habitats to minimize losses of genetic diversity within ESUs.

Genetic and ecological studies of animals in Chernobyl and Fukushima.

PubMed

Mousseau, Timothy A; Møller, Anders P

2014-01-01

Recent advances in genetic and ecological studies of wild animal populations in Chernobyl and Fukushima have demonstrated significant genetic, physiological, developmental, and fitness effects stemming from exposure to radioactive contaminants. The few genetic studies that have been conducted in Chernobyl generally show elevated rates of genetic damage and mutation rates. All major taxonomic groups investigated (i.e., birds, bees, butterflies, grasshoppers, dragonflies, spiders, mammals) displayed reduced population sizes in highly radioactive parts of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. In Fukushima, population censuses of birds, butterflies, and cicadas suggested that abundances were negatively impacted by exposure to radioactive contaminants, while other groups (e.g., dragonflies, grasshoppers, bees, spiders) showed no significant declines, at least during the first summer following the disaster. Insufficient information exists for groups other than insects and birds to assess effects on life history at this time. The differences observed between Fukushima and Chernobyl may reflect the different times of exposure and the significance of multigenerational mutation accumulation in Chernobyl compared to Fukushima. There was considerable variation among taxa in their apparent sensitivity to radiation and this reflects in part life history, physiology, behavior, and evolutionary history. Interestingly, for birds, population declines in Chernobyl can be predicted by historical mitochondrial DNA base-pair substitution rates that may reflect intrinsic DNA repair ability. © The American Genetic Association 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population status of Kittlitz's and Marbled Murrelets and surveys for other marine bird and mammal species in the Kenai Fjords area, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Pelt, Thomas I.; Piatt, John F.

2003-01-01

The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare seabird that nests in alpine terrain and generally forages near tidewater glaciers during the breeding season. More than 95% of the global population breeds in Alaska, with the remainder occurring in the Russian Far East. A global population estimate using best-available data in the early 1990s was 20,000 individuals. However, survey data from two core areas (Prince William Sound and Glacier Bay) suggest that populations have declined by 80-90% during the past 10-20 years. In response to these declines, a coalition of environmental groups petitioned the USFWS in May of 2001 to list the Kittlitz’s murrelet under the Endangered Species Act. In 2002, we began a three-year project to examine population status and trend of Kittlitz’s Murrelets in areas where distribution and abundance are poorly known. Here we report on the first field season, focused on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. We re-surveyed selected historical transects to evaluate trends, and surveyed new transects for improved population estimation during early July 2002. From a total of 66 Kittlitz’s Murrelets seen on transects, we estimate a total population of 509 Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. Comparisons with past surveys suggest a decline of 83% since 1976, with an average rate of decline calculated as–6.9 % per annum. This decline is in agreement with population declines observed elsewhere in the species’ core glaciated range, indicating that steep population declines observed to date are likely to be a range-wide phenomenon. While the focus of the study was Kittlitz’s Murrelets, other species of marine birds and mammals were also surveyed. Populations of the closely related Marbled Murrelet appear to have increased during the same time period. The abundance and distribution of other species are presented in appendices.

Cognition and mortality in older people: the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

PubMed

Connors, Michael H; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Xu, Jing; Draper, Brian; Brodaty, Henry

2015-11-01

Both cognitive ability and cognitive decline have been shown to predict mortality in older people. As dementia, a major form of cognitive decline, has an established association with shorter survival, it is unclear the extent to which cognitive ability and cognitive decline predict mortality in the absence of dementia. To determine whether cognitive ability and decline in cognitive ability predict mortality in older individuals without dementia. The Sydney Memory and Ageing Study is an observational population-based cohort study. Participants completed detailed neuropsychological assessments and medical examinations to assess for risk factors such as depression, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, smoking and physical activity. Participants were regularly assessed at 2-year intervals over 8 years. A community sample in Sydney, Australia. One thousand and thirty-seven elderly people without dementia. Overall, 236 (22.8%) participants died within 8 years. Both cognitive ability at baseline and decline in cognitive ability over 2 years predicted mortality. Decline in cognitive ability, but not baseline cognitive ability, was a significant predictor of mortality when depression and other medical risk factors were controlled for. These relationships also held when excluding incident cases of dementia. The findings indicate that decline in cognition is a robust predictor of mortality in older people without dementia at a population level. This relationship is not accounted for by co-morbid depression or other established biomedical risk factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The canary in the coalmine; bee declines as an indicator of environmental health.

PubMed

Goulson, Dave; Nicholls, Elizabeth

2016-09-01

Bee declines have received much attention of late, but there is considerable debate and confusion as to the extent, significance and causes of declines. In part, this reflects conflation of data for domestic honeybees, numbers of which are largely driven by economic factors, with those for wild bees, many of which have undergone marked range contractions but for the majority of which we have no good data on population size. There is no doubt that bees are subject to numerous pressures in the modern world. The abundance and diversity of flowers has declined along with availability of suitable nest sites, bees are chronically exposed to cocktails of agrochemicals, and they are simultaneously exposed to novel parasites and pathogens accidentally spread by humans. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these problems in the future, particularly for cool- climate specialists such as bumblebees. Stressors do not act in isolation; for example pesticide exposure can impair both detoxification mechanisms and immune responses, rendering bees more susceptible to parasites. It seems certain that chronic exposure to multiple, interacting stressors is driving honeybee colony losses and declines of wild pollinators. Bees have a high profile and so their travails attract attention, but these same stressors undoubtedly bear upon other wild organisms, many of which are not monitored and have few champions. Those wild insects for which we do have population data (notably butterflies and moths) are overwhelmingly also in decline. We argue that bee declines are indicators of pervasive and ongoing environmental damage that is likely to impact broadly on biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides.

Demographic processes underlying subtle patterns of population structure in the scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini.

PubMed

Nance, Holly A; Klimley, Peter; Galván-Magaña, Felipe; Martínez-Ortíz, Jimmy; Marko, Peter B

2011-01-01

Genetic diversity (θ), effective population size (N(e)), and contemporary levels of gene flow are important parameters to estimate for species of conservation concern, such as the globally endangered scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini. Therefore, we have reconstructed the demographic history of S. lewini across its Eastern Pacific (EP) range by applying classical and coalescent population genetic methods to a combination of 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences. In addition to significant population genetic structure and isolation-by-distance among seven coastal sites between central Mexico and Ecuador, the analyses revealed that all populations have experienced a bottleneck and that all current values of θ are at least an order of magnitude smaller than ancestral θ, indicating large decreases in N(e) (θ = 4N(e)μ), where μ is the mutation rate. Application of the isolation-with-migration (IM) model showed modest but significant genetic connectivity between most sampled sites (point estimates of Nm = 0.1-16.7), with divergence times (t) among all populations significantly greater than zero. Using a conservative (i.e., slow) fossil-based taxon-specific phylogenetic calibration for mtDNA mutation rates, posterior probability distributions (PPDs) for the onset of the decline in N(e) predate modern fishing in this region. The cause of decline over the last several thousand years is unknown but is highly atypical as a post-glacial demographic history. Regardless of the cause, our data and analyses suggest that S. lewini was far more abundant throughout the EP in the past than at present.

Demographic Processes Underlying Subtle Patterns of Population Structure in the Scalloped Hammerhead Shark, Sphyrna lewini

PubMed Central

Nance, Holly A.; Klimley, Peter; Galván-Magaña, Felipe; Martínez-Ortíz, Jimmy; Marko, Peter B.

2011-01-01

Genetic diversity (θ), effective population size (Ne), and contemporary levels of gene flow are important parameters to estimate for species of conservation concern, such as the globally endangered scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini. Therefore, we have reconstructed the demographic history of S. lewini across its Eastern Pacific (EP) range by applying classical and coalescent population genetic methods to a combination of 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences. In addition to significant population genetic structure and isolation-by-distance among seven coastal sites between central Mexico and Ecuador, the analyses revealed that all populations have experienced a bottleneck and that all current values of θ are at least an order of magnitude smaller than ancestral θ, indicating large decreases in Ne (θ = 4Neμ), where μ is the mutation rate. Application of the isolation-with-migration (IM) model showed modest but significant genetic connectivity between most sampled sites (point estimates of Nm = 0.1–16.7), with divergence times (t) among all populations significantly greater than zero. Using a conservative (i.e., slow) fossil-based taxon-specific phylogenetic calibration for mtDNA mutation rates, posterior probability distributions (PPDs) for the onset of the decline in Ne predate modern fishing in this region. The cause of decline over the last several thousand years is unknown but is highly atypical as a post-glacial demographic history. Regardless of the cause, our data and analyses suggest that S. lewini was far more abundant throughout the EP in the past than at present. PMID:21789171

Marine fisheries declines viewed upside down: human impacts on consumer-driven nutrient recycling.

PubMed

Layman, Craig A; Allgeier, Jacob E; Rosemond, Amy D; Dahlgren, Craig P; Yeager, Lauren A

2011-03-01

We quantified how two human impacts (overfishing and habitat fragmentation) in nearshore marine ecosystems may affect ecosystem function by altering the role of fish as nutrient vectors. We empirically quantified size-specific excretion rates of one of the most abundant fishes (gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus) in The Bahamas and combined these with surveys of fish abundance to estimate population-level excretion rates. The study was conducted across gradients of two human disturbances: overfishing and ecosystem fragmentation (estuaries bisected by roads), to evaluate how each could result in reduced population-level nutrient cycling by consumers. Mean estimated N and P excretion rates for gray snapper populations were on average 456% and 541% higher, respectively, in unfished sites. Ecosystem fragmentation resulted in significant reductions of recycling rates by snapper, with degree of creek fragmentation explaining 86% and 72% of the variance in estimated excretion for dissolved N and P, respectively. Additionally, we used nutrient limitation assays and primary producer nutrient content to provide a simple example of how marine fishery declines may affect primary production. This study provides an initial step toward integrating marine fishery declines and consumer-driven nutrient recycling to more fully understand the implications of human impacts in marine ecosystems.

75 FR 6539 - Healthy Forests Reserve Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-10

... species, sustains biodiversity, protects watersheds, sequesters carbon, and helps purify the air. However... fragmentation, reduction in periodic fires, lack of proper management, or invasive species. Habitat loss has... for species that have suffered significant population declines. Active management and protection of...

Predicting Metapopulation Responses to Conservation in Human-Dominated Landscapes

Treesearch

Zachary S. Ladin; Vincent D' Amico; Jan M. Baetens; Roland R. Roth; W. Gregory Shriver

2016-01-01

Loss of habitat to urbanization is a primary cause of population declines as human-dominated landscapes expand at increasing rates. Understanding how the relative effects of different conservation strategies is important to slow population declines for species in urban landscapes. We studied the wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, a declining forest-...

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

PubMed

Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

2013-10-01

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Survival rates of female white-tailed deer on an industrial forest following a decline in population density

Treesearch

Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum; W. Mark Ford; Brad F. Miller; Tyler A. Campbell; Karl V. Miller

2013-01-01

With white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations at historically high levels throughout many North American forests, many current management activities are aimed at reducing deer populations. However, very little information exists on the ecology of low-density white-tailed deer populations or populations that have declined in density. We...

Decline of a Rare Moth at Its Last Known English Site: Causes and Lessons for Conservation.

PubMed

Baker, David; Barrett, Sinead; Beale, Colin M; Crawford, Terry J; Ellis, Sam; Gullett, Tallulah; Mayhew, Peter J; Parsons, Mark S; Relf, Penny; Robertson, Paul; Small, Julian; Wainwright, Dave

2016-01-01

The conditions required by rare species are often only approximately known. Monitoring such species over time can help refine management of their protected areas. We report population trends of a rare moth, the Dark Bordered Beauty Epione vespertaria (Linnaeus, 1767) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) at its last known English site on a protected lowland heath, and those of its host-plant, Salix repens (L.) (Malpighiales: Salicaceae). Between 2007 and 2014, adult moth density reduced by an average of 30-35% annually over the monitored area, and its range over the monitored area contracted in concert. By comparing data from before this decline (2005) with data taken in 2013, we show that the density of host-plants over the monitored area reduced three-fold overall, and ten-fold in the areas of highest host-plant density. In addition, plants were significantly smaller in 2013. In 2005, moth larvae tended to be found on plants that were significantly larger than average at the time. By 2013, far fewer plants were of an equivalent size. This suggests that the rapid decline of the moth population coincides with, and is likely driven by, changes in the host-plant population. Why the host-plant population has changed remains less certain, but fire, frost damage and grazing damage have probably contributed. It is likely that a reduction in grazing pressure in parts of the site would aid host-plant recovery, although grazing remains an important site management activity. Our work confirms the value of constant monitoring of rare or priority insect species, of the risks posed to species with few populations even when their populations are large, of the potential conflict between bespoke management for species and generic management of habitats, and hence the value of refining our knowledge of rare species' requirements so that their needs can be incorporated into the management of protected areas.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks.

PubMed

Campbell Grant, Evan H; Nichols, James D; Lowe, Winsor H; Fagan, William F

2010-04-13

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Grant E.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2010-01-01

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks

PubMed Central

Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Nichols, James D.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Fagan, William F.

2010-01-01

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines. PMID:20351269

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korfanta, N.M.; Newmark, W.D.; Kauffman, M.J.

2012-01-01

Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss. Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (λ) estimates were < 1 for most species, suggesting that future population persistence even within large forest fragments is uncertain in this biodiversity hotspot.

An Alternative Method for Remediating Lead-Contaminated Soils in Residential Areas: A Decision Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pierzynski, Gary M.; Gehl, Katharine A.

2004-01-01

Lead (Pb) is one of the most significant environmental contaminants worldwide and has significant human health effects. Historic use of Pb in paint and gasoline, in particular, have made this contaminant ubiquitous in our environment although widespread use of Pb has declined in the USA. Unfortunately, segments of the population are still…

Physiology declines prior to death in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Shahrestani, Parvin; Tran, Xuan; Mueller, Laurence D

2012-10-01

For a period of 6-15 days prior to death, the fecundity and virility of Drosophila melanogaster fall significantly below those of same-aged flies that are not near death. It is likely that other aspects of physiology may decline during this period. This study attempts to document changes in two physiological characteristics prior to death: desiccation resistance and time-in-motion. Using individual fecundity estimates and previously described models, it is possible to accurately predict which flies in a population are near death at any given age; these flies are said to be in the "death spiral". In this study of approximately 7,600 females, we used cohort mortality data and individual fecundity estimates to dichotomize each of five replicate populations of same-aged D. melanogaster into "death spiral" and "non-spiral" groups. We then compared these groups for two physiological characteristics that decline during aging. We describe the statistical properties of a new multivariate test statistic that allows us to compare the desiccation resistance and time-in-motion for two populations chosen on the basis of their fecundity. This multivariate representation of the desiccation resistance and time-in-motion of spiral and non-spiral females was shown to be significantly different with the spiral females characterized by lower desiccation resistance and time spent in motion. Our results suggest that D. melanogaster may be used as a model organism to study physiological changes that occur when death is imminent.

Waning population immunity prior to a large Q fever epidemic in the south of The Netherlands.

PubMed

Brandwagt, D A H; Herremans, T; Schneeberger, P M; Hackert, V H; Hoebe, C J P A; Paget, J; VAN DER Hoek, W

2016-10-01

Historical survey data suggest that the seroprevalence of antibodies against Coxiella burnetii in the general population of The Netherlands decreased from more than 40% in 1983 to 2·4% in 2007, just before the start of the large 2007-2010 Q fever epidemic. To assess whether the sharp decline in seroprevalence was real, we performed a cross-sectional study using historical samples. We tested samples using a contemporary commercial indirect immunofluorescence assay. In plasma samples from the south of The Netherlands from 1987, we found an age- and sex-standardized seroprevalence of 14·4% (95% confidence interval 11·2-18·3). This was significantly lower than a 1983 estimate from the same area (62·5%), but significantly higher than 2008 (1·0%) and 2010 (2·3%) estimates from the same area. The study suggests that there was a steady and sharp decline in Q fever seroprevalence in the south of The Netherlands from 1987 to 2008. We assume that seroprevalence has decreased in other parts of The Netherlands as well and seroprevalence surveys in other European countries have shown a similar declining trend. Waning population immunity in The Netherlands may have contributed to the scale of the 2007-2010 Q fever epidemic. For a better understanding of the infection dynamics of Q fever, we advocate an international comparative study of the seroprevalence of C. burnetii.

Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Fraser, Kevin C; Stutchbury, Bridget J M; Silverio, Cassandra; Kramer, Patrick M; Barrow, John; Newstead, David; Mickle, Nanette; Cousens, Bruce F; Lee, J Charlene; Morrison, Danielle M; Shaheen, Tim; Mammenga, Paul; Applegate, Kelly; Tautin, John

2012-12-22

North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change.

Multiscale change in reef coral species diversity and composition in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Catalina G.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Guzman, Hector M.

2018-03-01

Both natural and anthropogenic factors are changing coral-reef structure and function worldwide. Long-term monitoring has revealed declines in the local composition and species diversity of reefs. Here we report changes in coral-reef community structure over 12 yr (2000-2012) at 17 sites and three spatial scales (reef, gulf and country) in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (Panama). We found a significant 4% annual decline in species population sizes at the country and gulf scales, with significant declines ranging from 3 to 32% at all but one reef. No significant temporal change in expected richness was found at the country scale or in the Gulf of Chiriquí, but a 7% annual decline in expected species richness was found in the Gulf of Panama. There was a 2% increase in community evenness in the Gulf of Chiriquí, but no change in the Gulf of Panama. Significant temporal turnover was found at the country and gulf scales and at 29% of the reefs, a finding mostly explained by changes in species abundance, and losses and gains of rare species. Temporal trends in alpha and beta diversity metrics were explained by water temperature maxima, anomalies and variation that occurred even in the absence of a strong El Niño warming event.

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. Methods Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. Results HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines. Conclusions In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends. PMID:21609449

Effects of white-nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species.

PubMed

Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

2016-10-01

Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional-scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white-nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large-scale, long-term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4-state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white-nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white-nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white-nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white-nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white-nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white-nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure early detection of white-nose syndrome. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

POLICY OPTIONS TO REVERSE THE DECLINE OF WILD PACIFIC SALMON

EPA Science Inventory

The primary goal of the Salmon 2100 Project was to identify practical options that have a high probability of maintaining biologically significant, sustainable populations of wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest and California. Wild salmon recovery efforts in western North Americ...

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Demographics and diaspora, gender and genealogy: anthropological notes on Greek population policy.

PubMed

Paxson, H

1997-01-01

Since World War II, Greece's birth rate has fallen into a worsening decline. With the steady emigration of Greeks throughout the century to North America, Australia, and Germany, Greece has experienced one of the most rapid population declines in Europe. In 1991, the PASOK government convened a special Parliamentary Commission to study the demographic problem and develop recommendations for its resolution. Released in 1993, and comparing Greece's depressed population growth rates with the markedly higher ones of Albania and Turkey, the report argues that the demographic problem is one of national survival because a decline in the population undermines the territorial integrity and national independence of the country. At least half of all pregnancies in Greece end in abortion, and the report attributes 40% of the declining population growth rate to women who have repeat abortions. To confront the population dilemma, Greek officials are downplaying the diaspora and encouraging women at home to produce more babies. Maternal pensions forwarded by the state as family and population policies are being criticized by Athenian women as a means of professionalizing motherhood and perpetuating a limited vision of female adulthood. The author explores why the declining birth rate is considered to be such a problem in Greece, even though the other countries of Europe are also experiencing birth rate declines; why and how women are blamed for the demographic situation; and why the state, despite its vehement rhetoric, has failed to implement a family policy capable of boosting fertility.

Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

PubMed Central

Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

Bereavement and behavioral changes as risk factors for cognitive decline in adults with Down syndrome.

PubMed

Fonseca, Luciana Mascarenhas; de Oliveira, Melaine Cristina; de Figueiredo Ferreira Guilhoto, Laura Maria; Cavalheiro, Esper Abrao; Bottino, Cássio Mc

2014-01-01

Cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease often affect older adults with Down syndrome (DS) much earlier than those in the general population. There is also growing evidence of the effects of negative life events on the mental health and behavior of individuals with intellectual disability. However, to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating objective cognitive decline following bereavement in aging individuals with DS. The objective of this study was to determine whether cognitive decline correlates with bereavement following the recent loss of a caregiver or with behavioral changes in a sample of adult individuals with DS who do not meet the criteria for dementia or depression, using the longitudinal assessment of the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), together with the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). We evaluated 18 subjects at baseline and over a follow-up period of 14-22 months, attempting to determine whether cognitive decline correlates with bereavement following the recent loss of the main caregiver or with behavioral changes (as assessed with the Neuropsychiatric Inventory). The mean rate of change in CAMCOG was -1.83 (standard deviation 4.51). Behavioral changes had a significant direct influence on cognitive decline. When bereavement was accompanied by behavioral changes, the probability of cognitive decline was 87% (odds ratio 3.82). The occurrence of behavioral changes attributed to bereavement following the loss of the primary caregiver significantly increases the probability of cognitive decline in individuals with DS. Longitudinal comparison of the CAMCOG and use of the IQCODE appear to enrich the analysis of cognitive decline in individuals with DS. Further studies involving larger samples are needed in order to corroborate and expand upon our findings, which can have implications for the clinical management of older adults with DS.

Pesticides and amphibian population declines in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, Donald W.; Fellers, Gary M.; McConnell, Laura L.

2001-01-01

Several species of anuran amphibians have undergone drastic population declines in the western United States over the last 10 to 15 years. In California, the most severe declines are in the Sierra Mountains east of the Central Valley and downwind of the intensely agricultural San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, coastal and more northern populations across from the less agrarian Sacramento Valley are stable or declining less precipitously. In this article, we provide evidence that pesticides are instrumental in declines of these species. Using Hyla regilla as a sentinel species, we found that cholinesterase (ChE) activity in tadpoles was depressed in mountainous areas east of the Central Valley compared with sites along the coast or north of the Valley. Cholinesterase was also lower in areas where ranid population status was poor or moderate compared with areas with good ranid status. Up to 50% of the sampled population in areas with reduced ChE had detectable organophosphorus residues, with concentrations as high as 190 ppb wet weight. In addition, up to 86% of some populations had measurable endosulfan concentrations and 40% had detectable 4,4'- dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, 4,4'-DDT, and 2,4'-DDT residues.

Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

PubMed

Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

2014-07-01

Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population variance. The nature of this variance is only partially consistent with current life-history theory and stimulates expansions of such theory to accommodate complexities in adaptive life history. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Long-term financial burden of breast cancer: experiences of a diverse cohort of survivors identified through population-based registries.

PubMed

Jagsi, Reshma; Pottow, John A E; Griffith, Kent A; Bradley, Cathy; Hamilton, Ann S; Graff, John; Katz, Steven J; Hawley, Sarah T

2014-04-20

To evaluate the financial experiences of a racially and ethnically diverse cohort of long-term breast cancer survivors (17% African American, 40% Latina) identified through population-based registries. Longitudinal study of women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer in 2005 to 2007 and reported to the SEER registries of metropolitan Los Angeles and Detroit. We surveyed 3,133 women approximately 9 months after diagnosis and 4 years later. Multivariable models evaluated correlates of self-reported decline in financial status attributed to breast cancer and of experiencing at least one type of privation (economically motivated treatment nonadherence and broader hardships related to medical expenses). Among 1,502 patients responding to both surveys, median out-of-pocket expenses were ≤ $2,000; 17% of respondents reported spending > $5,000; 12% reported having medical debt 4 years postdiagnosis. Debt varied significantly by race: 9% of whites, 15% of blacks, 17% of English-speaking Latinas, and 10% of Spanish-speaking Latinas reported debt (P = .03). Overall, 25% of women experienced financial decline at least partly attributed to breast cancer; Spanish-speaking Latinas had significantly increased odds of this decline relative to whites (odds ratio [OR], 2.76; P = .006). At least one privation was experienced by 18% of the sample; blacks (OR, 2.6; P < .001) and English-speaking Latinas (OR, 2.2; P = .02) were significantly more likely to have experienced privation than whites. Racial and ethnic minority patients appear most vulnerable to privations and financial decline attributable to breast cancer, even after adjustment for income, education, and employment. These findings should motivate efforts to control costs and ensure communication between patients and providers regarding financial distress, particularly for vulnerable subgroups.

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

Declining HIV Prevalence in Parallel With Safer Sex Behaviors in Burkina Faso: Evidence From Surveillance and Population-Based Surveys.

PubMed

Kirakoya-Samadoulougou, Fati; Nagot, Nicolas; Samadoulougou, Sekou; Sokey, Mamadou; Guiré, Abdoulaye; Sombié, Issiaka; Meda, Nicolas

2016-06-20

To investigate trends in HIV prevalence and changes in reported sexual behaviors between 1998 and 2014 in Burkina Faso. We obtained data on HIV prevalence from antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites (N = 9) that were consistently included in surveillance between 1998 and 2014. We also analyzed data on HIV prevalence and reported sex behaviors from 3 population-based surveys from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted in 1998-99, 2003, and 2010. Sex behavior indicators comprised never-married youth who have never had sex; sex with more than 1 partner; sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; condom use at last sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; and sex before age 15. We calculated survey-specific HIV prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used the chi-square test or chi-square test for trend to compare HIV prevalence across survey years and to analyze trends in reported sex behaviors. HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15-49 decreased by 72% in urban areas, from 7.1% in 1998 to 2.0% in 2014, and by 75% in rural areas, from 2.0% in 2003 to 0.5% in 2014. HIV declined most in younger age groups, which is a good reflection of recent incidence, with declines of 55% among 15-19-year-olds, 72% among 20-24-year-olds, 40% among 25-29-year-olds, and 7% among those ≥30 years old (considering urban and rural data combined). Data reported in the DHS corroborated these declines in HIV prevalence: between 2003 and 2010, HIV prevalence dropped significantly-by 89% among girls ages 15-19, from 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2 to 1.6) to 0.1% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.4), and by 78% among young women ages 20-24, from 1.8% (95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0) to 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7). During the same time period, people reported safer sex behaviors. For example, significantly higher percentages of never-married youth reported they had never had sex, lower percentages of sexually active youth reported multiple sex partners, and lower percentages of youth reported having sex before age 15. In addition, the percentage of men ages 20-49 reporting sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner declined significantly, while condom use at last sex with such a partner increased significantly among both men and women ages 15-49. Both ANC surveillance and population-based surveys report sharp declines in HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso between 1998 and 2014, accompanied by improvements in reported risky sex behaviors. © Kirakoya-Samadoulougou et al.

Frog decline, frog malformations, and a comparison of frog and human health.

PubMed

Cohen, M M

2001-11-22

The decline in frog populations and the increase in the frequency of frog malformations are discussed. Topics considered for analysis include chytridiomycosis, retinoids, UV-B radiation, chemical contaminants, environmental threats, introduced invasive species and predation, unsustainable use, and enigmatic decline. Care must be taken to distinguish between hypotheses, laboratory experiments, and the findings in feral frog populations. Clearly, the causes of population decline and malformations are heterogeneous. The subject of frogs and humans is addressed under three subheadings: the importance of frogs to human societies, medical implications of frog studies, and a comparison of frog and human disease factors. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Changes in incidence and antifungal drug resistance in candidemia: results from population-based laboratory surveillance in Atlanta and Baltimore, 2008-2011.

PubMed

Cleveland, Angela Ahlquist; Farley, Monica M; Harrison, Lee H; Stein, Betsy; Hollick, Rosemary; Lockhart, Shawn R; Magill, Shelley S; Derado, Gordana; Park, Benjamin J; Chiller, Tom M

2012-11-15

Candidemia is common and associated with high morbidity and mortality; changes in population-based incidence rates have not been reported. We conducted active, population-based surveillance in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, and Baltimore City/County, Maryland (combined population 5.2 million), during 2008-2011. We calculated candidemia incidence and antifungal drug resistance compared with prior surveillance (Atlanta, 1992-1993; Baltimore, 1998-2000). We identified 2675 cases of candidemia with 2329 isolates during 3 years of surveillance. Mean annual crude incidence per 100 000 person-years was 13.3 in Atlanta and 26.2 in Baltimore. Rates were highest among adults aged ≥65 years (Atlanta, 59.1; Baltimore, 72.4) and infants (aged <1 year; Atlanta, 34.3; Baltimore, 46.2). In both locations compared with prior surveillance, adjusted incidence significantly declined for infants of both black and white race (Atlanta: black risk ratio [RR], 0.26 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .17-.38]; white RR: 0.19 [95% CI, .12-.29]; Baltimore: black RR, 0.38 [95% CI, .22-.64]; white RR: 0.51 [95% CI: .29-.90]). Prevalence of fluconazole resistance (7%) was unchanged compared with prior surveillance; 32 (1%) isolates were echinocandin-resistant, and 9 (8 Candida glabrata) were multidrug resistant to both fluconazole and an echinocandin. We describe marked shifts in candidemia epidemiology over the past 2 decades. Adults aged ≥65 years replaced infants as the highest incidence group; adjusted incidence has declined significantly in infants. Use of antifungal prophylaxis, improvements in infection control, or changes in catheter insertion practices may be contributing to these declines. Further surveillance for antifungal resistance and efforts to determine effective prevention strategies are needed.

Changes in Incidence and Antifungal Drug Resistance in Candidemia: Results From Population-Based Laboratory Surveillance in Atlanta and Baltimore, 2008–2011

PubMed Central

Cleveland, Angela Ahlquist; Farley, Monica M.; Harrison, Lee H.; Stein, Betsy; Hollick, Rosemary; Lockhart, Shawn R.; Magill, Shelley S.; Derado, Gordana; Park, Benjamin J.; Chiller, Tom M.

2015-01-01

Background Candidemia is common and associated with high morbidity and mortality; changes in population-based incidence rates have not been reported. Methods We conducted active, population-based surveillance in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, and Baltimore City/County, Maryland (combined population 5.2 million), during 2008–2011. We calculated candidemia incidence and antifungal drug resistance compared with prior surveillance (Atlanta, 1992–1993; Baltimore, 1998–2000). Results We identified 2675 cases of candidemia with 2329 isolates during 3 years of surveillance. Mean annual crude incidence per 100 000 person-years was 13.3 in Atlanta and 26.2 in Baltimore. Rates were highest among adults aged ≥65 years (Atlanta, 59.1; Baltimore, 72.4) and infants (aged <1 year; Atlanta, 34.3; Baltimore, 46.2). In both locations compared with prior surveillance, adjusted incidence significantly declined for infants of both black and white race (Atlanta: black risk ratio [RR], 0.26 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .17–.38]; white RR: 0.19 [95% CI, .12–.29]; Baltimore: black RR, 0.38 [95% CI, .22–.64]; white RR: 0.51 [95% CI: .29–.90]). Prevalence of fluconazole resistance (7%) was unchanged compared with prior surveillance; 32 (1%) isolates were echinocandin-resistant, and 9 (8 Candida glabrata) were multidrug resistant to both fluconazole and an echinocandin. Conclusions We describe marked shifts in candidemia epidemiology over the past 2 decades. Adults aged ≥65 years replaced infants as the highest incidence group; adjusted incidence has declined significantly in infants. Use of antifungal prophylaxis, improvements in infection control, or changes in catheter insertion practices may be contributing to these declines. Further surveillance for antifungal resistance and efforts to determine effective prevention strategies are needed. PMID:22893576

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system.

PubMed

Martin, Thomas E

2007-02-01

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components.

Assessment of Competition between Fisheries and Steller Sea Lions in Alaska Based on Estimated Prey Biomass, Fisheries Removals and Predator Foraging Behaviour

PubMed Central

Hui, Tabitha C. Y.; Gryba, Rowenna; Gregr, Edward J.; Trites, Andrew W.

2015-01-01

A leading hypothesis to explain the dramatic decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in western Alaska during the latter part of the 20th century is a change in prey availability due to commercial fisheries. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationships between sea lion population trends, fishery catches, and the prey biomass accessible to sea lions around 33 rookeries between 2000 and 2008. We focused on three commercially important species that have dominated the sea lion diet during the population decline: walleye pollock, Pacific cod and Atka mackerel. We estimated available prey biomass by removing fishery catches from predicted prey biomass distributions in the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska; and modelled the likelihood of sea lions foraging at different distances from rookeries (accessibility) using satellite telemetry locations of tracked animals. We combined this accessibility model with the prey distributions to estimate the prey biomass accessible to sea lions by rookery. For each rookery, we compared sea lion population change to accessible prey biomass. Of 304 comparisons, we found 3 statistically significant relationships, all suggesting that sea lion populations increased with increasing prey accessibility. Given that the majority of comparisons showed no significant effect, it seems unlikely that the availability of pollock, cod or Atka mackerel was limiting sea lion populations in the 2000s. PMID:25950178

Assessment of Competition between Fisheries and Steller Sea Lions in Alaska Based on Estimated Prey Biomass, Fisheries Removals and Predator Foraging Behaviour.

PubMed

Hui, Tabitha C Y; Gryba, Rowenna; Gregr, Edward J; Trites, Andrew W

2015-01-01

A leading hypothesis to explain the dramatic decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in western Alaska during the latter part of the 20th century is a change in prey availability due to commercial fisheries. We tested this hypothesis by exploring the relationships between sea lion population trends, fishery catches, and the prey biomass accessible to sea lions around 33 rookeries between 2000 and 2008. We focused on three commercially important species that have dominated the sea lion diet during the population decline: walleye pollock, Pacific cod and Atka mackerel. We estimated available prey biomass by removing fishery catches from predicted prey biomass distributions in the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska; and modelled the likelihood of sea lions foraging at different distances from rookeries (accessibility) using satellite telemetry locations of tracked animals. We combined this accessibility model with the prey distributions to estimate the prey biomass accessible to sea lions by rookery. For each rookery, we compared sea lion population change to accessible prey biomass. Of 304 comparisons, we found 3 statistically significant relationships, all suggesting that sea lion populations increased with increasing prey accessibility. Given that the majority of comparisons showed no significant effect, it seems unlikely that the availability of pollock, cod or Atka mackerel was limiting sea lion populations in the 2000s.

Distribution, status, and traditional significance of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in Venezuela

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Correa-Viana, Martín; Ludlow, Mark E.; Robinson, John G.

1988-01-01

Aerial and interview surveys were conducted in 1986 to determine the current distribution, status, and traditional significance of the West Indian manatee Trichechus manatus in Venezuela. Aerial surveys provided just eight tentative sightings in 73 hours of searching. These discouraging results may have been due to poor visibility, small populations, and perhaps reduced dry season manatee activity. Results of interview surveys, however, permitted a number of important generalizations. A remnant manatee population exists in Lake Maracaibo, but none occur along the more than 1500 km of Caribbean coastline. Abundance is greatest in eastern Venezuela bordering the Golfo de Paria, in the Orinoco Delta, and in the middle Orinoco and tributaries. Local market hunting in the middle of this century probably greatly reduced manatee populations in these areas. Recent protection laws, education efforts, and manatee scarcity have resulted in a declining interest in manatee hunting. Much excellent manatee habitat persists in these regions, and a continued decline in hunting could result in an optimistic outlook for future manatee populations if the incidental take in net fisheries is controlled. Traditional beliefs and legends concerning manatees in Venezuela, including hunting taboos, show that these animals remain a colorful part of the folk culture. However, manatee protection does not pose economic hardships or infringe upon traditional spiritual beliefs.

Population, reproduction and foraging of pigeon guillemots at Naked Island, Alaska, before and after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Bird study number 9. Exxon Valdez oil spill state/federal natural resource damage assessment final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oakley, K.L.; Kuletz, K.J.

1994-01-01

Following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, we studied pigeon guillemots (Cepphus columba) breeding just 30 km from the grounding site. The post-spill population was 43% less than the pre-spill population, but we could not attribute the entire decline to the spill because a decline in the PWS guillemot population may have predated the spill. However, relative declines in the population were greater along oiled shorelines, suggesting that the spill was responsible for some of the decline. The most likely explanation for the few effects observed is that oil was present on the surfacemore » waters of the study area for a relatively short period before the guillemots returned to begin their annual reproductive activities.« less

Potential (Mis)match? Marriage Markets Amidst Sociodemographic Change in India, 2005-2050.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-02-01

We explore the impact of sociodemographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities-contemporary patterns by age, contemporary patterns by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries--to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: (1) female deficit in sex ratios at birth; (2) declining birth cohort size; (3) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRBs) in India's population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India's population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differences and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005-2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to multistate population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today's age patterns of marriage are viewed against age/sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women--particularly those with higher education--experience a more salient rise in nonmarriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns toward greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in nonmarriage.

Low genetic differentiation in a sedentary bird: house sparrow population genetics in a contiguous landscape

PubMed Central

Kekkonen, J; Seppä, P; Hanski, I K; Jensen, H; Väisänen, R A; Brommer, J E

2011-01-01

The house sparrow Passer domesticus has been declining in abundance in many localities, including Finland. We studied the genetic diversity and differentiation of the house sparrow populations across Finland in the 1980s, at the onset of the species' decline in abundance. We genotyped 472 adult males (the less dispersive sex) from 13 locations in Finland (covering a range of 400 × 800 km) and one in Sweden (Stockholm) for 13 polymorphic microsatellite markers. Our analysis of Finnish ringing records showed that natal dispersal distances are limited (90% <16 km), which confirmed earlier finding from other countries. The Finnish populations were panmictic, and genetically very homogeneous and the limited dispersal was sufficiently large to maintain their connectivity. However, all Finnish populations differed significantly from the Stockholm population, even though direct geographical distance to it was often smaller than among Finnish populations. Hence, the open sea between Finland and Sweden appears to form a dispersal barrier for this species, whereas dispersal is much less constrained across the Finnish mainland (which lacks geographical barriers). Our findings provide a benchmark for conservation biologists and emphasize the influence of landscape structure on gene flow. PMID:20372181

Quantifying the Detrimental Impacts of Land-Use and Management Change on European Forest Bird Populations

PubMed Central

Wade, Amy S. I.; Barov, Boris; Burfield, Ian J.; Gregory, Richard D.; Norris, Ken; Butler, Simon J.

2013-01-01

The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health. PMID:23704997

Seroepidemiologic Survey of Potential Pathogens in Obligate and Facultative Scavenging Avian Species in California

PubMed Central

Straub, Mary H.; Kelly, Terra R.; Rideout, Bruce A.; Eng, Curtis; Wynne, Janna; Braun, Josephine; Johnson, Christine K.

2015-01-01

Throughout the world, populations of scavenger birds are declining rapidly with some populations already on the brink of extinction. Much of the current research into the factors contributing to these declines has focused on exposure to drug residues, lead, and other toxins. Despite increased monitoring of these declining populations, little is known about infectious diseases affecting scavenger bird species. To assess potential infectious disease risks to both obligate and facultative scavenger bird species, we performed a serosurvey for eleven potential pathogens in three species of scavenging birds in California: the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus), turkey vulture (Cathartes aura) and golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). California condors were seropositive for avian adenovirus, infectious bronchitis virus, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, avian paramyxovirus-2, West Nile virus (WNV) and Toxoplasma gondii. Golden eagles were seropositive for avian adenovirus, Chlamydophila psittaci and Toxoplasma gondii, and turkey vultures were seropositive for avian adenovirus, Chlamydophila psittaci, avian paramyxovirus-1, Toxoplasma gondii and WNV. Risk factor analyses indicated that rearing site and original release location were significantly associated with a positive serologic titer to WNV among free-flying condors. This study provides preliminary baseline data on infectious disease exposure in these populations for aiding in early disease detection and provides potentially critical information for conservation of the endangered California condor as it continues to expand its range and encounter new infectious disease threats. PMID:26606755

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

PubMed Central

Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-01-01

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

House Sparrows Do Not Constitute a Significant Salmonella Typhimurium Reservoir across Urban Gradients in Flanders, Belgium

PubMed Central

Rouffaer, Lieze Oscar; Lens, Luc; Haesendonck, Roel; Teyssier, Aimeric; Hudin, Noraine Salleh; Strubbe, Diederik; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Pasmans, Frank; Martel, An

2016-01-01

In recent decades major declines in urban house sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have been observed in north-western European cities, whereas suburban and rural house sparrow populations have remained relatively stable or are recovering from previous declines. Differential exposure to avian pathogens known to cause epidemics in house sparrows may in part explain this spatial pattern of declines. Here we investigate the potential effect of urbanization on the development of a bacterial pathogen reservoir in free-ranging house sparrows. This was achieved by comparing the prevalence of Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serotype Typhimurium in 364 apparently healthy house sparrows captured in urban, suburban and rural regions across Flanders, Belgium between September 2013 and March 2014. In addition 12 dead birds, received from bird rescue centers, were necropsied. The apparent absence of Salmonella Typhimurium in fecal samples of healthy birds, and the identification of only one house sparrow seropositive for Salmonella spp., suggests that during the winter of 2013–2014 these birds did not represent any considerable Salmonella Typhimurium reservoir in Belgium and thus may be considered naïve hosts, susceptible to clinical infection. This susceptibility is demonstrated by the isolation of two different Salmonella Typhimurium strains from two of the deceased house sparrows: one DT99, typically associated with disease in pigeons, and one DT195, previously associated with a passerine decline. The apparent absence (prevalence: <1.3%) of a reservoir in healthy house sparrows and the association of infection with clinical disease suggests that the impact of Salmonella Typhimurium on house sparrows is largely driven by the risk of exogenous exposure to pathogenic Salmonella Typhimurium strains. However, no inference could be made on a causal relationship between Salmonella infection and the observed house sparrow population declines. PMID:27168186

CFSC (Community and Family Study Center) study finds birth rates falling everywhere - family planning (family planning) is a factor.

PubMed

1978-08-01

The findings of the Community and Family Study Center study, based on estimated crude birthrates and total fertility rates for 1968 and 1975, indicate that there has been a significant reduction in fertility levels of both developed and developing countries. Despite regional variations, the estimates show an average proportional decline of 8.5% in total fertility rates between 1968 and 1975. Of the 148 nations studied, 113 were in developing regions and 35 in the developed regions. Information on important social and economic development factors, such as life expectancy, literacy, percent of labor force in agriculture, per capita income, and family planning program strength were gathered for each country. Analyses of these data are reported in "The Public Interest" (to be published) "Population Reference Bulletin," October 1978, and a paper presented at the 1978 Population Association of America Meetings in Atlanta, Georgia. The recent change in fertility affected 81% of the world's population, primarily the peoples of Asia, Latin America, and North America. The total fertility rate in the world in 1968 was 4635 and declined to 4068 in 1975. More substantial declines occurred in Asia and Latin America, where the number of fewer births 1000 women would bear under a given fertility schedule declined by 845 births and 617 births, respectively. As more research is conducted to investigate the underlying causes of this decline, it is likely to confirm the important role that family planning programs have had in developing nations. Although major improvements in the socioeconomic well-being of the developing areas continue as an essential goal, the need to maintain the organized provision of family planning services should not be understated.

House Sparrows Do Not Constitute a Significant Salmonella Typhimurium Reservoir across Urban Gradients in Flanders, Belgium.

PubMed

Rouffaer, Lieze Oscar; Lens, Luc; Haesendonck, Roel; Teyssier, Aimeric; Hudin, Noraine Salleh; Strubbe, Diederik; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Pasmans, Frank; Martel, An

2016-01-01

In recent decades major declines in urban house sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have been observed in north-western European cities, whereas suburban and rural house sparrow populations have remained relatively stable or are recovering from previous declines. Differential exposure to avian pathogens known to cause epidemics in house sparrows may in part explain this spatial pattern of declines. Here we investigate the potential effect of urbanization on the development of a bacterial pathogen reservoir in free-ranging house sparrows. This was achieved by comparing the prevalence of Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serotype Typhimurium in 364 apparently healthy house sparrows captured in urban, suburban and rural regions across Flanders, Belgium between September 2013 and March 2014. In addition 12 dead birds, received from bird rescue centers, were necropsied. The apparent absence of Salmonella Typhimurium in fecal samples of healthy birds, and the identification of only one house sparrow seropositive for Salmonella spp., suggests that during the winter of 2013-2014 these birds did not represent any considerable Salmonella Typhimurium reservoir in Belgium and thus may be considered naïve hosts, susceptible to clinical infection. This susceptibility is demonstrated by the isolation of two different Salmonella Typhimurium strains from two of the deceased house sparrows: one DT99, typically associated with disease in pigeons, and one DT195, previously associated with a passerine decline. The apparent absence (prevalence: <1.3%) of a reservoir in healthy house sparrows and the association of infection with clinical disease suggests that the impact of Salmonella Typhimurium on house sparrows is largely driven by the risk of exogenous exposure to pathogenic Salmonella Typhimurium strains. However, no inference could be made on a causal relationship between Salmonella infection and the observed house sparrow population declines.

Examining the Role of Components of Slc11a1 (Nramp1) in the Susceptibility of New Zealand Sea Lions (Phocarctos hookeri) to Disease

PubMed Central

Osborne, Amy J.; Pearson, John; Chilvers, B. Louise; Kennedy, Martin A.; Gemmell, Neil J.

2015-01-01

The New Zealand sea lion (NZSL, Phocarctos hookeri) is a Threatened marine mammal with a restricted distribution and a small, declining, population size. The species is susceptible to bacterial pathogens, having suffered three mass mortality events since 1998. Understanding the genetic factors linked to this susceptibility is important in mitigating population decline. The gene solute carrier family 11 member a1 (Slc11a1) plays an important role in mammalian resistance or susceptibility to a wide range of bacterial pathogens. At present, Slc11a1 has not been characterised in many taxa, and despite its known roles in mediating the effects of infectious disease agents, has not been examined as a candidate gene in susceptibility or resistance in any wild population of conservation concern. Here we examine components of Slc11a1 in NZSLs and identify: i) a polymorphic nucleotide in the promoter region; ii) putative shared transcription factor binding motifs between canids and NZSLs; and iii) a conserved polymorphic microsatellite in the first intron of Slc11a1, which together suggest conservation of Slc11a1 gene structure in otariids. At the promoter polymorphism, we demonstrate a shift away from normal allele frequency distributions and an increased likelihood of death from infectious causes with one allelic variant. While this increased likelihood is not statistically significant, lack of significance is potentially due to the complexity of genetic susceptibility to disease in wild populations. Our preliminary data highlight the potential significance of this gene in disease resistance in wild populations; further exploration of Slc11a1 will aid the understanding of susceptibility to infection in mammalian species of conservation significance. PMID:25874773

The bioenergetic consequences of invasive-induced food web disruption to Lake Ontario alewives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Thomas J.; O'Gorman, Robert; Sprules, W. Gary; Lantry, B.F.

2010-01-01

Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus are the dominant prey fish in Lake Ontario, and their response to ecological change can alter the structure and function of the Lake Ontario food web. Using stochastic population-based bioenergetic models of Lake Ontario alewives for 1987–1991 and 2001–2005, we evaluated changes to alewife production, consumption, and associated bioenergetic ratios after invasive-induced food web disruption. After the disruption, mean biomass of alewives declined from 28.0 to 14.6 g/m2, production declined from 40.8 to 13.6 g·m−2·year−1, and consumption declined from 342.1 to 137.2 g·m−2·year−1, but bootstrapping of error sources suggested that the changes were not statistically significant. Population-based bioenergetic ratios of production to biomass (P/B ratio), total consumption to biomass (Q/B ratio), and production efficiency did not change. Pathways of energy flow measured as prey-group-specific Q/B ratios changed significantly between the two time periods for invasive predatory cladocerans (from 0.6 to 1.3), Mysis diluviana (from 0.4 to 2.5), and other prey (from 0.8 to 0.1), but the observed decline in the zooplankton Q/B ratio (from 10.6 to 5.5) was not significant. Gross production efficiency did not change; values ranged from 8% to 15%. Age-group mean gross conversion efficiency (GCE) declined with age; GCE ranged from 7.5% to 11.0% for yearlings, was approximately 5% for age-2 alewives, and was less than 2% for age-3 and older alewives. The GCE increased significantly between the time periods for yearling alewives. Our analyses support the hypothesis that after 2003, alewives could not sustain their growth while feeding on zooplankton closer to shore. Modeling of observed spatial variation in diet and alternative occupied temperatures demonstrates the potential for reducing consumption by alewives. Our results suggest that Lake Ontario alewives can exploit spatial heterogeneity in resource patches and thermal habitat to partially mitigate the effects of food web disruption. Fish management implications are discussed.

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

2013-01-01

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

PubMed

Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

2011-12-01

Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

Genetic assessment of the effects of streamscape succession on coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch colonization in recently deglaciated streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Soiseth, Chad; McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Sage, Kevin; Thorsteinson, Lyman K.; Nielsen, J. L.; Knudsen, E.

2017-01-01

Measures of genetic diversity within and among populations and historical geomorphological data on stream landscapes were used in model simulations based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to examine hypotheses of the relative importance of stream features (geomorphology and age) associated with colonization events and gene flow for coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch breeding in recently deglaciated streams (50–240 years b.p.) in Glacier Bay National Park (GBNP), Alaska. Population estimates of genetic diversity including heterozygosity and allelic richness declined significantly and monotonically from the oldest and largest to youngest and smallest GBNP streams. Interpopulation variance in allele frequency increased with increasing distance between streams (r = 0·435, P < 0·01) and was inversely related to stream age (r = –0·281, P < 0·01). The most supported model of colonization involved ongoing or recent (<10 generations before sampling) colonization originating from large populations outside Glacier Bay proper into all other GBNP streams sampled. Results here show that sustained gene flow from large source populations is important to recently established O. kisutch metapopulations. Studies that document how genetic and demographic characteristics of newly founded populations vary associated with successional changes in stream habitat are of particular importance to and have significant implications for, restoration of declining or repatriation of extirpated populations in other regions of the species' native range.

Deciphering microbial landscapes of fish eggs to mitigate emerging disease

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Animals and plants are increasingly suffering from diseases caused by fungi and oomycetes. These emerging pathogens are now recognised as a global threat to biodiversity and food security. Amongst oomycetes, Saprolegnia species cause significant declines in fish and amphibian populations. Fish eggs ...

Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rolland, V.; Hostetler, J.A.; Hines, T.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Percival, H.F.; Oli, M.K.

2011-01-01

Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (?? S=0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, S would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further. ?? 2011 CSIRO.

Biodiversity losses: The downward spiral

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tomback, Diana F.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Tomback, Diana F.; Arno, Stephen F.; Keane, Robert E.

2001-01-01

The dramatic decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) populations in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada from the combined effects of fire exclusion, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), and the projected decline of whitebark pine populations rangewide (Chapters 10 and 11) do not simply add up to local extirpations of a single tree species. Instead, the loss of whitebark pine has broad ecosystem-level consequences, eroding local plant and animal biodiversity, changing the time frame of succession, and altering the distribution of subalpine vegetation (Chapter 1). One potential casualty of this decline may be the midcontinental populations of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis), which use whitebark pine seeds as a major food source (Chapter 7). Furthermore, whitebark pine is linked to other white pine ecosystems in the West through its seed-disperser, Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) (Chapter 5). Major declines in nutcracker populations ultimately seal the fate of several white pine ecosystems, and raise the question of whether restoration is possible once a certain threshold of decline is reached.

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

PubMed

Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

2017-01-20

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications

PubMed Central

Mensah, George A.; Wei, Gina S.; Sorlie, Paul D.; Fine, Lawrence J.; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G.; Mussolino, Michael E.; Hsu, Lucy L.; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M.; Gordon, David

2016-01-01

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke has been the success story of the century’s last 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in CHD and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the U.S. population aged. However, in 1978 the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) concluded that a significant recent downtick in CHD and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the U.S. Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from CHD and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one-third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The NHLBI, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference in order to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. PMID:28104770

Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats.

PubMed

Both, Christiaan; Van Turnhout, Chris A M; Bijlsma, Rob G; Siepel, Henk; Van Strien, Arco J; Foppen, Ruud P B

2010-04-22

One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984-2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

PubMed

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

[Recent demographic trends in Turkey].

PubMed

Behar, C

1993-01-01

Coverage of Turkey's vital registration system remains incomplete, and it cannot yet be used to measure annual population changes. Data and demographic indices based on the 1990 census and the 1989 National Demographic Survey are the most recent available. Turkey's population in 1990 was 56 million. The proportion urban increased to 59% from 49.2% in 1980. Nearly 35% of the population was under 15 years old, and the median age was 21.6 for males and 22.3 for females. The average age at first marriage in 1989 was 24.8 for men and 21.8 for women. Mortality has been in continuous decline. The crude death rate dropped from 16.4/1000 in 1960-65 to slightly under 8 in 1989. Life expectancy at birth was 63.3 for men and 66 for women. The infant mortality rate declined from 166 in 1965-70 to 85 in 1989. Rural or urban residence and maternal educational level were the most significant determinants of infant mortality differentials. Turkey's total fertility rate declined from 6.2 in 1960 to 4.3 in 1978 and 3.4 in 1988-89. The crude birth rate declined from around 40/1000 in 1968 to under 28/1000 in 1989. Fertility began to decline in the last third of the nineteenth century in Istanbul and other large cities of the Ottoman Empire. Istanbul's total fertility rate was a relatively low 3.9 even before World War I. Turkey adopted a policy to slow demographic growth in the mid 1960s, and family planning activities were supported by nongovernmental organizations. The direct impact of these policies on demographic behavior appears to have been somewhat limited, and the use of traditional methods of birth limitation remains widespread. Abortion was legalized in 1983 and is available at public hospitals. The proportion of married women aged 15-49 who use contraception increased from 38% in 1973 to 63% in 1988. Regional differentials in demographic indices are significant in Turkey, with the Anatolian East and Southeast lagging behind other regions in fertility and mortality decline, contraceptive usage, and other indicators. Turkey thus appears to be divided into a region in which the demographic transition is well advanced and one where it is proceeding more slowly.

Analysis of risk factors for infant mortality in the 1992-3 and 2002-3 birth cohorts in rural Guinea-Bissau.

PubMed

Byberg, Stine; Østergaard, Marie D; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Martins, Cesario; Benn, Christine S; Aaby, Peter; Fisker, Ane B

2017-01-01

Though still high, the infant mortality rate in Guinea-Bissau has declined. We aimed to identify risk factors including vaccination coverage, for infant mortality in the rural population of Guinea-Bissau and assess whether these risk factors changed from 1992-3 to 2002-3. The Bandim Health Project (BHP) continuously surveys children in rural Guinea-Bissau. We investigated the association between maternal and infant factors (especially DTP and measles coverage) and infant mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox regression. We tested for interactions with sex, age groups (defined by current vaccination schedule) and cohort to assess whether the risk factors were the same for boys and girls, in different age groups in 1992-3 and in 2002-3. The infant mortality rate declined from 148/1000 person years (PYRS) in 1992-3 to 124/1000 PYRS in 2002-3 (HR = 0.88;95%CI:0.77-0.99); this decline was significant for girls (0.77;0.64-0.94) but not for boys (0.97;0.82-1.15) (p = 0.10 for interaction). Risk factors did not differ significantly by cohort in either distribution or effect. Mortality decline was most marked among girls aged 9-11 months (0.56;0.37-0.83). There was no significant mortality decline for girls 1.5-8 months of age (0.93;0.68-1.28) (p = 0.05 for interaction). DTP and measles coverage increased from 1992-3 to 2002-3. Risk factors did not change with the decline in mortality. Due to beneficial non-specific effects for girls, the increased coverage of measles vaccination may have contributed to the disproportional decline in mortality by sex and age group.

Surgery-Independent Language Function Decline in Patients Undergoing Awake Craniotomy.

PubMed

Gonen, Tal; Sela, Gal; Yanakee, Ranin; Ram, Zvi; Grossman, Rachel

2017-03-01

Despite selection process before awake-craniotomy, some patients experience an unexpected decline in language functions in the operating room (OR), compared with their baseline evaluation, which may impair their functional monitoring. To investigate this phenomenon we prospectively compared language function the day before surgery and on entrance to the OR. Data were collected prospectively from consecutive patients undergoing awake-craniotomy with intraoperative cortical mapping for resection of gliomas affecting language areas. Language functions of 79 patients were evaluated and compared 1-2 days before surgery and after entering the OR. Changes in functional linguistic performance were analyzed with respect to demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics. There was a significant decline in language function, beyond sedation effect, after entering the OR, (from median/interquartile range: 0.94/0.72-0.98 to median/interquartile range: 0.86/0.51-0.94; Z = -7.19, P < 0.001). Univariate analyses revealed that this decline was related to age, preoperative Karnofsky Performance Scale, tumor location, tumor pathology, and preexisting language deficits. Multivariate stepwise regression identified tumor pathology and the presence of preoperative language deficit as significant independent predictors for this functional decline. Patients undergoing awake-craniotomy may experience a substantial decline in language functioning after entering the OR. Tumor grade and the presence of preoperative language deficits were significant risk factors for this phenomenon, suggesting a possible relation between cognitive reserve, psychobehavioral coping abilities and histologic features of a tumor involving language areas. Capturing and identifying this unique population of patients who are prone to experience such language decline may improve our ability in the future to select patients eligible for awake-craniotomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Megan V.; Alisaukas, Ray T.; Douglas, David C.; Kellett, Dana K.

2017-01-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992–2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May–30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic.

PubMed

Ross, Megan V; Alisauskas, Ray T; Douglas, David C; Kellett, Dana K

2017-07-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Age-Specific Trends in Incidence of Noncardia Gastric Cancer in US Adults

PubMed Central

Anderson, William F.; Camargo, M. Constanza; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Correa, Pelayo; Rosenberg, Philip S.; Rabkin, Charles S.

2011-01-01

Context For the last 50 years, overall age-standardized incidence rates for noncardia gastric cancer have steadily declined in most populations. However, overall rates are summary measures that may obscure important age-specific trends. Objective To examine effects of age at diagnosis on noncardia gastric cancer incidence trends in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive study with age-period-cohort analysis of cancer registration data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which covers approximately 26% of the US population. From 1977 through 2006, there were 83 225 adults with incident primary gastric cancer, including 39 003 noncardia cases. Main Outcome Measures Overall and age-specific incidence rates, adjusted for period and cohort effects using age-period-cohort models. Results were stratified by race, sex, and socioeconomic status. Results Overall age-standardized annual incidence per 100 000 population declined during the study period from 5.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7-6.1) to 4.0 (95% CI, 3.9-4.1) in whites, from 13.7 (95% CI, 12.5-14.9) to 9.5 (95% CI, 9.1-10.0) in blacks, and from 17.8 (95% CI, 16.1-19.4) to 11.7 (95% CI, 11.2-12.1) in other races. Age-specific trends among whites varied significantly between older and younger age groups (P < .001 for interaction by age): incidence per 100 000 declined significantly from 19.8 (95% CI, 19.0-20.6) to 12.8 (95% CI, 12.5-13.1) for ages 60 to 84 years and from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4-2.8) to 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.1) for ages 40 to 59 years but increased significantly from 0.27 (95% CI, 0.19-0.35) to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.39-0.50) for ages 25 to 39 years. Conversely, rates for all age groups declined or were stable among blacks and other races. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a significant increase in whites among younger cohorts born since 1952 (P < .001). Conclusions From 1977 through 2006, the incidence rate for noncardia gastric cancer declined among all race and age groups except for whites aged 25 to 39 years, for whom it increased. Additional surveillance and analytical studies are warranted to identify risk factors that may explain this unfavorable trend. PMID:20442388

Achieving the Goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy: Declining HIV Diagnoses, Improving Clinical Outcomes, and Diminishing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in King County, WA (2004-2013).

PubMed

Golden, Matthew R; Bennett, Amy B; Dombrowski, Julia C; Buskin, Susan E

2016-05-01

The US National HIV/AIDS Strategy defines national objectives related to HIV prevention and care. The extent to which US cities are meeting those objectives is uncertain. We analyzed King County, WA, HIV surveillance data collected between 2004 and 2013. The study population included 9539 persons diagnosed as having and living with HIV infection and 3779 persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection. Between 2004 and 2013, the rate of new HIV diagnosis decreased from 18.4 to 13.2 per 100,000 residents (decline of 28%); AIDS diagnosis rates declined 42% from 12 to 7 per 100,000; and age-adjusted death rates decreased from 27 to 15 per 1000 persons living with HIV/AIDS (decline of 42%; P<0.0001 for all 3 trends). The rate of new HIV diagnosis declined 26% among men who have sex with men (MSM; P=0.0002), with the largest decline occurring in black MSM (44%). Among 8679 individuals with laboratory results reported to National HIV Surveillance System from 2006 through 2013, viral suppression (viral load<200 copies/mL) increased from 45% to 86% (P<0.0001), with all racial/ethnic groups achieving greater than 80% viral suppression in 2013. The rates of new HIV diagnosis, AIDS diagnoses, and mortality in persons living with HIV in King County, WA, have significantly declined over the last decade. These changes have occurred concurrent with a dramatic increase in HIV viral suppression and have affected diverse populations, including MSM and African American MSM. These findings demonstrate substantial local success in achieving the goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

PubMed

Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

2017-03-15

In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Organochlorine residues in six species of estuarine birds, South Carolina, 1971-75

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blus, L.J.; Lamont, T.G.

1979-01-01

In South Carolina between 1971 and 1975, authors evaluated the occurrence of organochlorine residues in the laughing gull (Larus atricilla), white ibis (Eudocimus albus), glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus), American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus), willet (Catoptrophorus semipalmatus), and ruddy turnstone (Arenaria interpres). Tissues of birds found dead and eggs were analyzed, eggshell thicknesses were measured, and incidental observations were made of reproductive success and population status. Eggshell thickness of the white bis, American oystercatcher, and laughing gull were not significantly different (P less than 0.05) from the pre-1947 norms. DDE and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found most frequently and at the highest concentration in eggs. DDE residues declined significantly in oystercatcher eggs, and declined slightly in laughing gull eggs; no change was noted in white ibis eggs. No consistent trends were found for dieldrin and PCBs. Authors found no obvious problems with reproductive success of any species. Populations of the five species breeding in South Carolina appear stable. The white ibis and laughing gull in South Carolina have experienced population explosions over the past 50 years; the glossy ibis has increased substantially since the first documented breeding records in 1947.

A model for sex ratio decline in India.

PubMed

Thukral, A K

1996-01-01

"The sex ratio in India has declined from 972 females per 1,000 males in 1901 to 929 females per 1,000 males in 1991. A model [is] proposed for the quantitative analysis of the problem.... The study reveals that there has been a sex discriminated population growth in India in the twentieth century, although the rate of decline of the female has decreased. If the current trend of population growth continues, there will be a further decline in the [sex ratio]." excerpt

The population genetics of a solitary oligolectic sweat bee, Lasioglossum (Sphecodogastra) oenotherae (Hymenoptera: Halictidae).

PubMed

Zayed, A; Packer, L

2007-10-01

Strong evidence exists for global declines in pollinator populations. Data on the population genetics of solitary bees, especially diet specialists, are generally lacking. We studied the population genetics of the oligolectic bee Lasioglossum oenotherae, a specialist on the pollen of evening primrose (Onagraceae), by genotyping 455 females from 15 populations across the bee's North American range at six hyper-variable microsatellite loci. We found significant levels of genetic differentiation between populations, even at small geographic scales, as well as significant patterns of isolation by distance. However, using multilocus genotype assignment tests, we detected 11 first-generation migrants indicating that L. oenotherae's sub-populations are experiencing ongoing gene flow. Southern populations of L. oenotherae were significantly more likely to deviate from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and from genotypic equilibrium, suggesting regional differences in gene flow and/or drift and inbreeding. Short-term N(e) estimated using temporal changes in allele frequencies in several populations ranged from approximately 223 to 960. We discuss our findings in terms of the conservation genetics of specialist pollinators, a group of considerable ecological importance.

Genetic structuring and recent demographic history of red pandas (Ailurus fulgens) inferred from microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA.

PubMed

Hu, Yibo; Guo, Yu; Qi, Dunwu; Zhan, Xiangjiang; Wu, Hua; Bruford, Michael W; Wei, Fuwen

2011-07-01

Clarification of the genetic structure and population history of a species can shed light on the impacts of landscapes, historical climate change and contemporary human activities and thus enables evidence-based conservation decisions for endangered organisms. The red panda (Ailurus fulgens) is an endangered species distributing at the edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and is currently subject to habitat loss, fragmentation and population decline, thus representing a good model to test the influences of the above-mentioned factors on a plateau edge species. We combined nine microsatellite loci and 551 bp of mitochondrial control region (mtDNA CR) to explore the genetic structure and demographic history of this species. A total of 123 individuals were sampled from 23 locations across five populations. High levels of genetic variation were identified for both mtDNA and microsatellites. Phylogeographic analyses indicated little geographic structure, suggesting historically wide gene flow. However, microsatellite-based Bayesian clustering clearly identified three groups (Qionglai-Liangshan, Xiaoxiangling and Gaoligong-Tibet). A significant isolation-by-distance pattern was detected only after removing Xiaoxiangling. For mtDNA data, there was no statistical support for a historical population expansion or contraction for the whole sample or any population except Xiaoxiangling where a signal of contraction was detected. However, Bayesian simulations of population history using microsatellite data did pinpoint population declines for Qionglai, Xiaoxiangling and Gaoligong, demonstrating significant influences of human activity on demography. The unique history of the Xiaoxiangling population plays a critical role in shaping the genetic structure of this species, and large-scale habitat loss and fragmentation is hampering gene flow among populations. The implications of our findings for the biogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, subspecies classification and conservation of red pandas are discussed. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

School-based administration of ADHD drugs decline, along with diversion, theft, and misuse.

PubMed

Dupont, Robert L; Bucher, Richard H; Wilford, Bonnie B; Coleman, John J

2007-12-01

Since 2000 researchers have reported a decline in the administration of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications given by school nurses, although no decline has been noted in the incidence of ADHD in school-age populations. Government data for the same period show reduced levels of methylphenidate abuse as measured by its involvement in hospital emergency department (ED) admissions. Offsetting this, however, is an increase in the involvement of amphetamine-dextroamphetamine in hospital ED admissions for the same period. Because ADHD medications are often administered in the school setting, a survey of school nurses was undertaken to identify factors related to the administration as well as to the diversion, theft, and misuse of ADHD medications. Of 311 school nurses responding, 295 (95%) reported a significant or moderate decline between 2002 and 2004 in the need for school-based administration of ADHD medications. Respondents also reported reductions in diversion, theft, and misuse of ADHD drugs.

On the decline of ground lichen forests in the Swedish boreal landscape: Implications for reindeer husbandry and sustainable forest management.

PubMed

Sandström, Per; Cory, Neil; Svensson, Johan; Hedenås, Henrik; Jougda, Leif; Borchert, Nanna

2016-05-01

Lichens are a bottleneck resource for circumpolar populations of reindeer, and as such, for reindeer husbandry as an indigenous Sami land-use tradition in northern Sweden. This study uses ground lichen data and forest information collected within the Swedish National Forest Inventory since 1953, on the scale of northern Sweden. We found a 71 % decline in the area of lichen-abundant forests over the last 60 years. A decline was observed in all regions and age classes and especially coincided with a decrease of >60 year old, open pine forests, which was the primary explanatory factor in our model. The effects of reindeer numbers were inconclusive in explaining the decrease in lichen-abundant forest. The role that forestry has played in causing this decline can be debated, but forestry can have a significant role in reversing the trend and improving ground lichen conditions.

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

PubMed

Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-04-10

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Status assessment and conservation plan for the Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruth, Janet M.

2015-01-01

The Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) breeds in grassland habitats throughout much of the U.S., southern and southeastern Canada, and northern Mexico. Additional subspecies are resident in Central America, northern South America, and the Caribbean. It winters primarily in the coastal states of the southeastern U.S., southern portions of the southwestern states, and in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. The species prefers relatively open grassland with intermediate grass height and density and patchy bare ground; because it is widely distributed across different grassland types in North America, it selects different vegetation structure and species composition depending on what is available. In the winter, they use a broader range of grassland habitats including open grasslands, as well as weedy fields and grasslands with woody vegetation. Analyses show significant range-wide population declines from the late 1960s through the present, primarily caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation. Grasshopper Sparrow is still a relatively common and broadly distributed species, but because of significant population declines and stakeholder concerns, the species is considered of conservation concern nationally and at the state level for numerous states. Many factors, often related to different grassland management practices (e.g., grazing, burning, mowing, management of shrub encroachment, etc.) throughout the species’ range, have impacts on Grasshopper Sparrow distribution, abundance, and reproduction and may represent limiting factors or threats given steep declines in this species’ population. Because of the concerns for this species, Grasshopper Sparrow has been identified as a focal species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and this Status Assessment and Conservation Plan for Grasshopper Sparrow has been developed. Through literature searches and input from stakeholders across its range, this plan presents information about Grasshopper Sparrow population status, distribution, habitat needs, threats and limiting factors; synthesis of these resources has identified recommended action items addressing population status and trends, habitat conservation, management, research, inventory and monitoring, and education and outreach components that will facilitate Grasshopper Sparrow conservation across its full annual cycle.

Conceptual ecological model for management of breeding grassland birds in the Mid-Atlantic Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, Bruce G.

2006-01-01

The status of grassland birds has become an increasingly important conservation issue. These species exhibit the most consistent population declines of any group of North American birds during the past 40 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests these declines have been occurring for nearly a century (Peterjohn and Sauer 1999). While the widespread conversion of grasslands into other habitats contributed to these declining populations, other factors such as habitat fragmentation and mowing regimes are also implicated (Vickery et al. 1999a). This plight of grassland birds has heightened awareness of the need for concerted conservation actions to reverse these seriously declining population trends. The National Park Service (NPS) is positioned to potentially contribute to grassland bird conservation in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The NPS maintains a number of historic sites and former battlefields that are managed for their cultural significance but also support wildlife populations. Many of these “cultural parks” maintain open landscapes to recreate land use patterns that existed at the times of the historical events. These open landscapes are primarily managed grasslands which could be maintained to benefit grassland birds. In 2005, the NPS initiated a project exploring the potential of “cultural parks” to support significant breeding grassland bird communities. This project involved parks within three NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program (I&M) networks, Mid-Atlantic, National Capital, and Eastern Rivers and Mountains. Five parks were selected for the initial focus of this study, all of which maintain open landscapes for interpretation of historic events. Most parks were selected because they represent the most extensive grassland habitats within their networks, with the rationale that if these parks cannot support significant breeding grassland bird communities, then parks with smaller acreages cannot support these communities either. The five parks included in this study are: Antietam National Battlefield, Fort Necessity National Battlefield, Gettysburg National Battlefield, Manassas National Battlefield, and Monocacy National Battlefield. This conceptual ecological model is one product of this project. The information presented below allows NPS Network Coordinators to understand the factors to consider when making decisions concerning grassland management within their networks. This model provides park Resource Managers with information on grassland ecology in the Mid-Atlantic Region, the ecological requirements of grassland birds likely to occur in their parks, and management issues that influence whether significant breeding populations can be expected to occupy grasslands created and maintained in the parks. The Resource Managers can then make informed decisions concerning their ability to create and maintain grassland habitats. The emphasis of this conceptual model is restricted to management of breeding grassland birds. Additional species may occur in this region during migration and winter, while habitat requirements of all grassland birds during nonbreeding seasons will differ from those described for the breeding season.

Polar Bear Population Status in the Southern Beaufort Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2006-01-01

Polar bears depend entirely on sea ice for survival. In recent years, a warming climate has caused major changes in the Arctic sea ice environment, leading to concerns regarding the status of polar bear populations. Here we present findings from long-term studies of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) region of the U.S. and Canada, which are relevant to these concerns. We applied open population capture-recapture models to data collected from 2001 to 2006, and estimated there were 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211; 1,841) polar bears in the SBS region in 2006. The number of polar bears in this region was previously estimated to be approximately 1,800. Because precision of earlier estimates was low, our current estimate of population size and the earlier ones cannot be statistically differentiated. For the 2001-06 period, the best fitting capture-recapture model provided estimates of total apparent survival of 0.43 for cubs of the year (COYs), and 0.92 for all polar bears older than COYs. Because the survival rates for older polar bears included multiple sex and age strata, they could not be compared to previous estimates. Survival rates for COYs, however, were significantly lower than estimates derived in earlier studies (P = 0.03). The lower survival of COYs was corroborated by a comparison of the number of COYs per adult female for periods before (1967-89) and after (1990-2006) the winter of 1989-90, when warming temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation caused an abrupt change in sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin. In the latter period, there were significantly more COYs per adult female in the spring (P = 0.02), and significantly fewer COYs per adult female in the autumn (P < 0.001). Apparently, cub production was higher in the latter period, but fewer cubs survived beyond the first 6 months of life. Parallel with declining survival, skull measurements suggested that COYs captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. Similarly, both skull measurements and body weights suggested that adult males captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. The smaller stature of males was especially notable because it corresponded with a higher mean age of adult males. Male polar bears continue to grow into their teens, and if adequately nourished, the older males captured in the latter period should have been larger than those captured earlier. In western Hudson Bay, Canada, a significant decline in population size was preceded by observed declines in cub survival and physical stature. The evidence of declining recruitment and body size reported here, therefore, suggests vigilance regarding the future of polar bears in the SBS region.

Fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella on whole strawberries and blueberries of two maturities under different storage conditions.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thao P; Friedrich, Loretta M; Danyluk, Michelle D

2014-07-01

Strawberries and blueberries harvested at or near full-ripe maturity tend to be less firm and more susceptible to bruising during harvest and transport. The objective of this research was to determine the fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella on bruised and intact surfaces of whole strawberries and blueberries at shipping (2°C) and retail display (15.5°C) temperatures. Strawberries and blueberries were either purchased from a supermarket or were harvested immediately prior to use; they were bruised using established protocols, were spot inoculated, and were incubated at 2 and 15.5°C. Strawberries, subjected to modified atmospheres, were further transferred to bags and were sealed in with an initial atmosphere of ca. 10% CO2 and 5% O2. Strawberries were sampled at 0, 2, 5, and 24 h and on days 3 and 7; blueberries were sampled on days 0, 1, 3, and 7. After stomaching, samples were enumerated on nonselective and selective media, and populations were recorded as log CFU per berry. At both storage temperatures, population declines for both E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella were seen under all conditions for strawberries. At 2 ± 2°C, E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella populations on blueberries declined over 7 days under all conditions. At 15.5 ± 2°C, E. coli O157:H7 populations declined; however, Salmonella populations initially declined but increased to populations near or above initial populations over 7 days on blueberries. No overall significant differences were observed between bruised and intact treatments or between the two maturity levels for strawberries and blueberries. Modified atmospheric conditions did not affect the behavior of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella on strawberries at both temperatures. This research indicates that E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella do not grow on strawberries at shipping or retail display temperatures, even when they are harvested at a maturity prone to bruising; however, Salmonella growth may occur on bruised full ripe blueberries under retail display temperatures.

Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

2012-01-01

The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant–animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

2012-03-01

The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant-animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coddington, Michael; Sciano, Damian; Fuller, Jason

The New York City boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens are undergoing a period of gentrification, infrastructure rebuilding, new construction, and load growth not experienced in decades. Significant numbers of residents are moving in, and structures that had been abandoned or were in disrepair are being refurbished and modernized to accommodate the burgeoning population. Homes, businesses, and industries are reviving areas long in decline, and Brooklyn's growth has made it the nation's fourth most populous city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

PubMed Central

Savage, Anna E; Becker, Carlos G; Zamudio, Kelly R

2015-01-01

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L. yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source–sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines. PMID:26136822

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

PubMed

Thomson, Diane M

2016-10-01

Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Pup Mortality in a Rapidly Declining Harbour Seal (Phoca vitulina) Population

PubMed Central

Hanson, Nora; Thompson, Dave; Duck, Callan; Moss, Simon; Lonergan, Mike

2013-01-01

The harbour seal population in Orkney, off the north coast of Scotland, has reduced by 65% between 2001 and 2010. The cause(s) of this decline are unknown but must affect the demographic parameters of the population. Here, satellite telemetry data were used to test the hypothesis that increased pup mortality could be a primary driver of the decline in Orkney. Pup mortality and tag failure parameters were estimated from the duration of operation of satellite tags deployed on harbour seal pups from the Orkney population (n = 24) and from another population on the west coast of Scotland (n = 24) where abundance was stable. Survival probabilities from both populations were best represented by a common gamma distribution and were not different from one another, suggesting that increased pup mortality is unlikely to be the primary agent in the Orkney population decline. The estimated probability of surviving to 6 months was 0.390 (95% CI 0.297 – 0.648) and tag failure was represented by a Gaussian distribution, with estimated mean 270 (95% CI = 198 – 288) and s.d. 21 (95% CI = 1 – 66) days. These results suggest that adult survival is the most likely proximate cause of the decline. They also demonstrate a novel technique for attaining age-specific mortality rates from telemetry data. PMID:24312239

Population structure and historical demography of South American sea lions provide insights into the catastrophic decline of a marine mammal population.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Kowalski, G J; Klimova, A; Eberhart-Phillips, L J; Staniland, I J; Baylis, A M M

2016-07-01

Understanding the causes of population decline is crucial for conservation management. We therefore used genetic analysis both to provide baseline data on population structure and to evaluate hypotheses for the catastrophic decline of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) at the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in the South Atlantic. We genotyped 259 animals from 23 colonies across the Falklands at 281 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region and 22 microsatellites. A weak signature of population structure was detected, genetic diversity was moderately high in comparison with other pinniped species, and no evidence was found for the decline being associated with a strong demographic bottleneck. By combining our mitochondrial data with published sequences from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, we also uncovered strong maternally directed population structure across the geographical range of the species. In particular, very few shared haplotypes were found between the Falklands and South America, and this was reflected in correspondingly low migration rate estimates. These findings do not support the prominent hypothesis that the decline was caused by migration to Argentina, where large-scale commercial harvesting operations claimed over half a million animals. Thus, our study not only provides baseline data for conservation management but also reveals the potential for genetic studies to shed light upon long-standing questions pertaining to the history and fate of natural populations.

Population structure and historical demography of South American sea lions provide insights into the catastrophic decline of a marine mammal population

PubMed Central

Hoffman, J. I.; Kowalski, G. J.; Klimova, A.; Staniland, I. J.; Baylis, A. M. M.

2016-01-01

Understanding the causes of population decline is crucial for conservation management. We therefore used genetic analysis both to provide baseline data on population structure and to evaluate hypotheses for the catastrophic decline of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) at the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in the South Atlantic. We genotyped 259 animals from 23 colonies across the Falklands at 281 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region and 22 microsatellites. A weak signature of population structure was detected, genetic diversity was moderately high in comparison with other pinniped species, and no evidence was found for the decline being associated with a strong demographic bottleneck. By combining our mitochondrial data with published sequences from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, we also uncovered strong maternally directed population structure across the geographical range of the species. In particular, very few shared haplotypes were found between the Falklands and South America, and this was reflected in correspondingly low migration rate estimates. These findings do not support the prominent hypothesis that the decline was caused by migration to Argentina, where large-scale commercial harvesting operations claimed over half a million animals. Thus, our study not only provides baseline data for conservation management but also reveals the potential for genetic studies to shed light upon long-standing questions pertaining to the history and fate of natural populations. PMID:27493782

Predicted disease susceptibility in a Panamanian amphibian assemblage based on skin peptide defenses.

PubMed

Woodhams, Douglas C; Voyles, Jamie; Lips, Karen R; Carey, Cynthia; Rollins-Smith, Louise A

2006-04-01

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by a chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. This panzootic does not equally affect all amphibian species within an assemblage; some populations decline, others persist. Little is known about the factors that affect disease resistance. Differences in behavior, life history, biogeography, or immune function may impact survival. We found that an innate immune defense, antimicrobial skin peptides, varied significantly among species within a rainforest stream amphibian assemblage that has not been exposed to B. dendrobatidis. If exposed, all amphibian species at this central Panamanian site are at risk of population declines. In vitro pathogen growth inhibition by peptides from Panamanian species compared with species with known resistance (Rana pipiens and Xenopus laevis) or susceptibility (Bufo boreas) suggests that of the nine species examined, two species (Centrolene prosoblepon and Phyllomedusa lemur) may demonstrate strong resistance, and the other species will have a higher risk of disease-associated population declines. We found little variation among geographically distinct B. dendrobatidis isolates in sensitivity to an amphibian skin peptide mixture. This supports the hypothesis that B. dendrobatidis is a generalist pathogen and that species possessing an innate immunologic defense at the time of disease emergence are more likely to survive.

Unintentional injury mortality among indigenous communities of Taiwan: trends from 2002 to 2013 and evaluation of a community-based intervention.

PubMed

Pan, Stephen W; Chong, Hiu Ha; Kao, Hui-Chuan

2017-11-27

Indigenous communities in Taiwan shoulder a disproportionate burden of unintentional injury fatalities. We compare unintentional injury mortality rate trends among Taiwan's indigenous communities and the general population from 2002 to 2013, and evaluate potential impact of a community-based injury prevention programme on indigenous unintentional injury death rates. Standardised and crude unintentional injury mortality rates were obtained from Taiwan government reports. Segmented linear regression was used to estimate and compare unintentional injury mortality rate trends before and after the intervention. Between 2002 and 2013, unintentional injury mortality rates among Taiwan's indigenous population significantly declined by about 4.5 deaths per 100 000 each year (p<0.0001). During that time, the unintentional injury mortality rate ratio between indigenous Taiwanese and the general population significantly decreased by approximately 1% each successive year (p=0.02). However, we were unable to detect evidence that the 'Healthy and Safe Tribe' programme was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the unintentional injury mortality rate trend among indigenous persons (p=0.81). Taiwanese indigenous communities remain at significantly higher risk of unintentional injury death, though the gap may be slowly narrowing. We found no evidence that the 'Healthy and Safe Tribe' indigenous injury-prevention programme significantly contributed to the nationwide decline in unintentional injury mortality among indigenous Taiwanese communities from 2009 to 2013. Future interventions to address the disproportionate burden of unintentional injury fatalities among indigenous Taiwanese should consider interventions with wider coverage of the indigenous population, and complementing grass roots led community-based interventions with structural policy interventions as well. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummings, Jonathan W.; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan L.; O'Meilia, Chris M.

2017-08-09

We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

Genetic diversity and population structure of Mongolian domestic Bactrian camels (Camelus bactrianus)

PubMed Central

Chuluunbat, B; Charruau, P; Silbermayr, K; Khorloojav, T; Burger, P A

2014-01-01

The tradition of animal husbandry in the context of a nomadic lifestyle has been of great significance in the Mongolian society. Both Bactrian camels and horses have been invaluable for the survival and development of human activities in the harsh arid environment of the Mongolian steppe. As camels offer unique and sustainable opportunities for livestock production in marginal agro-ecological zones, we investigated the current genetic diversity of three local Mongolian camel breeds and compared their levels of variation with common native Mongolian camels distributed throughout the country. Based on mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we found levels of genetic diversity in Mongolian populations similar to that reported for Chinese Bactrian camels and for dromedaries. Little differentiation was detected between single breeds, except for a small group originating from the northwestern Mongolian Altai. We found neither high inbreeding levels in the different breeds nor evidence for a population decline. Although the Mongolian camel census size has severely declined over the past 20 years, our analyses suggest that there still exists a stable population with adequate genetic variation for continued sustainable utilization. PMID:24749721

Devil Declines and Catastrophic Cascades: Is Mesopredator Release of Feral Cats Inhibiting Recovery of the Eastern Quoll?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Cameron, Elissa Z.; Jones, Menna E.; Nicol, Stewart C.

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll’s range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a ‘predator pit’ effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines. PMID:25760348

Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

PubMed

Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a 'predator pit' effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines.

Response of predatory zooplankton populations to the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierszen, M.E.; Frost, T.M.

1993-01-01

To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, the authors monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of three levels: pH 5.6, 5.2 and 4.7). Concentrations of phantom midge (Chaoborus spp.), the most abundant large predator, remained similar in the treatment and reference basins until the fourth year (pH 5.2) when they increased in the treatment basin. In contrast, Epischura lacustris and Leptodora kindtii disappeared from limnetic samples, and water mites declined to near zero upon acidification. Treatmentmore » basin populations of E. lacustris declined sharply during the second year of acidification. The nature of the decline suggested sensitivity of an early life stage during the first year at pH 5.6. Leptodora kindtii showed no population response at pH 5.6, but declined to essentially zero at pH 5.2. Treatment basin populations of water mites fluctuated until declining in the fifth and sixth years (pH 4.7). These changes indicate a variety of direct and indirect responses to lake acidification.« less

Subjective Cognitive Decline, Objective Cognition, and Depression in Older Hispanics Screened for Memory Impairment.

PubMed

Zlatar, Zvinka Z; Muniz, Martha C; Espinoza, Sarah G; Gratianne, Roberto; Gollan, Tamar H; Galasko, Douglas; Salmon, David P

2018-01-01

Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is common in older adults and may be an early marker of future cognitive decline. Research suggest that SCD is more closely related to concurrent symptoms of depression than to objective cognitive performance in non-Hispanic Whites, but it is unknown whether the associations of SCD, cognition, and depression manifest differently in Hispanic older adults. We examined if SCD is associated with objective cognitive performance or with depression symptoms in 145 Hispanic individuals ages 60 or older referred by community health clinics for screening of cognitive complaints. All participants lived near the U.S.-Mexico border, spoke Spanish only, or were Spanish-English bilingual. Memory-only and global cognitive composites were created from scores on Spanish versions of several neuropsychological tests. The Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) and a five-item SCD questionnaire developed by our group were also completed. Multiple regression analyses showed no significant associations between SCD and memory or global cognitive composite scores after adjusting for age, sex, education, and GDS score. In contrast, there was a significant association between GDS and SCD after adjusting for age, sex, education, global and memory composite scores. Findings suggest that SCD does not accurately reflect current cognitive status in older Hispanics who present to their primary care physician with cognitive complaints. Clinicians should interpret SCD in this population within the context of information about symptoms of depression. Longitudinal research is needed in older Hispanics to better characterize SCD in this population and to determine if it can predict future cognitive decline.

Observer aging and long-term avian survey data quality

PubMed Central

Farmer, Robert G; Leonard, Marty L; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Anderson, Sean C

2014-01-01

Long-term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging-related changes to these observers may be an important, under-recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age-related observer effects in long-term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high-pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high-frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long-term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible. PMID:25360286

HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

PubMed

Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

2017-08-01

We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

Genetic Divergence of an Avian Endemic on the Californian Channel Islands

PubMed Central

Wilson, Amy G.; Chan, Yvonne; Taylor, Sabrina S.; Arcese, Peter

2015-01-01

The Californian Channel Islands are near–shore islands with high levels of endemism, but extensive habitat loss has contributed to the decline or extinction of several endemic taxa. A key parameter for understanding patterns of endemism and demography in island populations is the magnitude of inter–island dispersal. This paper estimates the extent of migration and genetic differentiation in three extant and two extinct populations of Channel Island song sparrows (Melospiza melodia graminea). Inter–island differentiation was substantial (G''ST: 0.14–0.37), with San Miguel Island having the highest genetic divergence and lowest migration rates. Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Island populations were less diverged with higher migration rates. Genetic signals of past population declines were detected in all of the extant populations. The Channel Island populations were significantly diverged from mainland populations of M. m. heermanni (G''ST: 0.30–0.64). Ten mtDNA haplotypes were recovered across the extant and extinct Channel Island population samples. Two of the ten haplotypes were shared between the Northern and Southern Channel Islands, with one of these haplotypes being detected on the Californian mainland. Our results suggest that there is little contemporary migration between islands, consistent with early explanations of avian biogeography in the Channel Islands, and that song sparrow populations on the northern Channel Islands are demographically independent. PMID:26308717

Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin.

PubMed

Mattern, Thomas; Meyer, Stefan; Ellenberg, Ursula; Houston, David M; Darby, John T; Young, Melanie; van Heezik, Yolanda; Seddon, Philip J

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin ( Megadyptes antipodes ) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

PubMed

Pleasants, John M; Zalucki, Myron P; Oberhauser, Karen S; Brower, Lincoln P; Taylor, Orley R; Thogmartin, Wayne E

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Eight thousand years of economic and political history in Latin America revealed by anthropometry.

PubMed

Bogin, B; Keep, R

1999-01-01

Human growth in height may be used as a cumulative record of the nutritional and health history of a person or a population, and often reflects the economic, social and political environment in which those people live. This paper explores the relationship between growth in height and the economic, social and political environment in Latin American populations. Adult height is analysed over an 8250 year period. It is shown that economic, social and political change prior to the European conquest of the Americas resulted in positive and negative trends in mean stature. Following the European conquest, there was a decline in mean adult stature in Middle and South America that continued until about 1939. From 1940 to 1989 there was a trend for increasing mean stature. A negative trend in stature for children is found in a second analysis. Economic decline and political unrest in Guatemala since 1978 is associated with a significant decline in the mean stature of 10- and 11-year-old children from families from very high, moderate, and very low socioeconomic status.

Piscivore diet response to a collapse in pelagic prey populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeug, Steven; Feyrer, Frederick; Brodsky, Annie; Melgo, Jenny

2017-01-01

Pelagic fish populations in the upper San Francisco Estuary have experienced significant declines since the turn of the century; a pattern known as the pelagic organism decline (POD). This study investigated food habits of piscivorous fishes over two consecutive fall seasons following the decline of pelagic fish prey. Specifically, this study addressed the contribution of pelagic versus benthic prey to piscivorous fish diets, including the frequency of predation on special-status pelagic species, and the spatial variability in prey consumption. The piscivore community was dominated by Striped Bass and also included small numbers of Sacramento Pikeminnow and Largemouth Bass. Overall, pelagic prey items contributed less than 10% of the diet by weight in both years, whereas pre-POD studies gleaned from the literature found contributions of 39–100%, suggesting a major switch from pelagic to benthic prey resources. Between-year variation in piscivore diets reflected differences in environmental conditions associated with variation in freshwater outflow. No special status fish species were detected in any of the piscivore stomachs examined. The consequences of this pelagic to benthic diet shift warrants further investigation to understand its ecological relevance.

Mortality and hematology associated with the ingestion of one number four lead shot in black ducks, Anas rubripes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pain, D.J.; Rattner, B.A.

The black duck (anas rubripes) is a dabbling duck endemic to North America. Since population surveys of this species began in the early 1950's, numbers have declined steadily at the rate of approximately 1.5% a year. In 1980 the North American population was estimated to be only 42% of that recorded in 1952. Several reasons have been suggested for this decline. One environmental contaminant that may be contributing to the decline is spent lead gunshot. The ingestion of gunshot by waterfowl is well documented and is thought to kill an estimated 1.6-3.8 million waterfowl each year in North America. Theremore » has been little research concerning the toxicity of lead gunshot to the black duck and the present significance of lead poisoning as a mortality factor in this species. This study reports the results of an experiment in which captive black ducks were dosed with one number four lead shot. Mortality rates and hematological effects are discussed in relation to lead toxicity.« less

Mortality and Morbidity Associated with a New Ciliate Infection of Shrimp that Causes Shrimp Black Gill in the Coastal Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, A. R.; Fowler, A. E.; Frede, R. L.; Walker, A. N.; Lee, R. F.; Frischer, M. E.

2016-02-01

Penaeid shrimp including Litopenaeus setiferus (white shrimp), Farfantepenaeus aztecus (brown shrimp), and Farfantepenaeus duorarum (pink shrimp) support the most valuable commercial marine fishery in the US Southeast Atlantic. However, since the mid 1990's the fishery has experienced a significant decline in reported harvest. Although decreased fishing effort has contributed to this decline, the decline has been coincident with the emergence of a new ciliate infection causing gill tissue melanization with evidence of tissue necrosis (Black Gill). The identity of the shrimp Black Gill (sBG) ciliate is still uncertain but is uniquely identified molecularly and microscopically. sBG is widely believed by the shrimping industry to have contributed to the decline of shrimp populations in Georgia and South Carolina, USA where prevalence can reach near 100% in the fall white shrimp season and is associated with large catches of dead and deteriorating shrimp along with soft and recently molted shrimp. In this study we report the first observations of mortality and morbidity associated with sBG ciliate infections in L. setiferus. The sBG ciliate is present from approximately May through January with peak infection rates and visibly melanized gills occurring in the late summer through the fall. Molecular and histological studies indicate that the sBG ciliate is absent from shrimp populations during the winter and spring. In laboratory studies, significant direct mortality of shrimp associated with sBG is observed only for a short period of time during the late summer. However, later in the fall symptomatic shrimp exhibit decreased performance response (endurance and respiratory capacity) that likely leads to increased mortality associated with secondary infections and increased predation rates. These studies support the hypothesis that shrimp Black Gill is negatively impacting wild shrimp populations and the fishery.

An historical overview and update of wolf-moose interactions in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John; Barber-Meyer, Shannon

2018-01-01

Wolf (Canis lupus) and moose (Alces americanus) populations in northeastern Minnesota, USA, have fluctuated for decades and, based on helicopter counts, moose numbers declined to a new low from 2006 to about 2012. Other steep declines were found in 1991 and 1998 during periods when moose counts were done with ®xed-wing aircraft; these declines also appeared to be real. Winter wolf numbers, monitored in part of the moose range, had been increasing since about 2002 to the highest population in decades in 2009. However, from 2009 to 2016, wolves decreased precipitously, and the moose-population decline leveled off from 2012 to 2017. Calf:population ratios from 1985 to 1997 and from 2005 to 2016 were inversely related to wolf numbers in the wolf-study area the previous winter both as wolves increased and decreased in abundance. Similarly, log annual growth rates of moose numbers were negatively correlated with counts of wolves in the prior year. Other factors such as nutrition and parasites, and possibly climate change, likely have been involved in the recent moose decline. However, wolves, as in other areas, appear to have contributed to the decline in the northeastern Minnesota moose population at least in part through predation on calves, supporting earlier reports. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

PubMed

Madulu, N F

1995-03-01

Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1-4 years of schooling compared to women with no formal education and women with 5 or more years of education. Population growth contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, famine, drought, flooding, and demand for firewood.

30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies

PubMed Central

Feigin, Valery L.; Krishnamurthi, Rita V.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M.; Barber, P. Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A.; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G.; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

2015-01-01

Background Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Methods Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981–1982, 1991–1992, 2002–2003 and 2011–2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. Results 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency of current smoking among stroke patients. Conclusions In this unique temporal series of studies spanning 30 years, stroke incidence, early case-fatality and 1-year mortality have declined, but ethnic disparities in risk and outcome for stroke persisted suggesting that primary stroke prevention remains crucial to reducing the burden of this disease. PMID:26291829

30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Krishnamurthi, Rita V; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M; Barber, P Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

2015-01-01

Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency of current smoking among stroke patients. In this unique temporal series of studies spanning 30 years, stroke incidence, early case-fatality and 1-year mortality have declined, but ethnic disparities in risk and outcome for stroke persisted suggesting that primary stroke prevention remains crucial to reducing the burden of this disease.

Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Rudicell, Rebecca S.; Holland Jones, James; Wroblewski, Emily E.; Learn, Gerald H.; Li, Yingying; Robertson, Joel D.; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Kamenya, Shadrack; Pintea, Lilian; Mjungu, Deus C.; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Mosser, Anna; Lehman, Clarence; Collins, D. Anthony; Keele, Brandon F.; Goodall, Jane; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Pusey, Anne E.; Wilson, Michael L.

2010-01-01

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of −6.5% to −7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen. PMID:20886099

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces).

PubMed

Dorius, Shawn F; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-07-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces)

PubMed Central

Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2011-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world’s population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality. PMID:21643494

Antispermatogenic, antiandrogenic activities of Albizia lebbeck (L.) Benth bark extract in male albino rats.

PubMed

Gupta, R S; Kachhawa, J B S; Chaudhary, R

2006-03-01

Methanolic extract of Albizia lebbeck bark when administered orally at the dose level of 100 mg/rat/day to male rats of proven fertility for 60 days did not cause any significant loss in their body weights but the weights of reproductive organs, i.e. testis, epididymides, seminal vesicle and ventral prostate were decreased in a significant manner when compared to controls. Sperm motility as well as sperm density were reduced significantly which resulted in reduction of male fertility by 100%. Marked decline in the germ cell population was noticed. Population of preleptotene, pachytene, secondary spermatocytes and step-19 spermatid were declined by 60.86%, 65.81%, 71.56% and 66.55%, respectively. Cross-sectional surface area of sertoli cells as well as the cells counts were found to be depleted significantly. Leydig cells nuclear area and number of mature Leydig cells were decreased by 60.03% and 51.56%, respectively. Serum testosterone levels showed significant reduction after A. lebbeck extract feeding. Oral administration of the extract did not affect red blood cell (RBC) and white blood cell (WBC) count, haemoglobin, haematocrit and glucose in the blood and cholesterol, protein, triglyceride and phospholipid in the serum. In conclusion, A. lebbeck bark extract administration arrests spermatogenesis in male rats without noticeable side effects.

Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

Greater prairie chicken nesting habitat, Sheyenne National Grassland, North Dakota

Treesearch

Clinton McCarthy; Tim Pella; Greg Link; Mark A. Rumble

1997-01-01

Greater prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations and habitats have declined dramatically in the Great Plains. The Sheyenne National Grassland (SNG) has the largest population of greater prairie chickens in North Dakota, but this population has declined over the past 15 years. Lack of nesting habitat has been identified as a...

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

The Impact of Improved Oral Health on the Utilization of Dental Services.

PubMed

Eklund, Stephen A

2017-08-01

Since the mid-20th century, there has been a remarkable decline in dental caries in the United States. The effects of that caries decline have now been demonstrated well into the adult population. These improvements in oral health are resulting in substantial declines in the reparative and restorative dental services being provided to the affected individuals, who comprise a growing part of the population. Because of fewer compromised teeth, extractions and their sequelae also are declining. Much of the recall and periodontal maintenance care can be provided by allied dental personnel. As the older age cohorts, who were children before the caries decline occurred, become an ever-smaller part of the population, the number of patients an individual dentist can treat in a year is likely to increase. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

Treesearch

K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

2002-01-01

ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

Secular trends of chickenpox among military population in Israel in relation to introduction of varicella zoster vaccine 1979-2010.

PubMed

Mimouni, Daniel; Levine, Hagai; Tzurel Ferber, Anat; Rajuan-Galor, Inbal; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

2013-06-01

Chickenpox is a contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus. There is scarce data on long-term trends of chickenpox and its relation to vaccinations practices. We aimed to evaluate trends of chickenpox in a military population during the period 1979-2010 and to assess temporal associations in relation with the introduction of varicella zoster vaccine to the civilian population in Israel in 2000. The archives of the Epidemiology Section of the Israel Defense Forces, where chickenpox is a notifiable disease, were reviewed for all cases of chickenpox from January 1, 1979-December 31, 2010. Annual and monthly incidence rates were calculated and analyzed in relation to vaccine introduction. Between 1979-2000, incidence rates fluctuated around 10 cases per 10,000 soldiers without a clear trend. Since 2000 there has been a dramatic 10-fold decline in incidence, especially notable since 2008, from eight per 10,000 soldiers in 2000 to the lowest rate ever recorded, in 2009, of 0.57 cases per 10,000 soldiers. A seasonal sinusoidal pattern was clearly demonstrated, with rising incidence from November to May followed by a gradual decline to October. The results of this long-term study suggest that the rates of chickenpox in the military population have significantly declined since the introduction of the vaccine to the civilian population in Israel and almost disappeared completely since 2008 as the vaccine was included in the state-funded routine childhood immunization schedule. These findings underscore the need for a strong surveillance system and will aid in determing vaccination policies.

Kit fox population trends at the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kato, T.T.; Scrivner, J.H.; Warrick, G.

The San Joaquin kit fox was listed as an endangered subspecies following passage of the Endangered Species Protection Act of 1966, and further classified as rare under the California Endangered Species Act of 1970. The San Joaquin kit fox occurs on the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California administered by the Department of Energy (DOE). A long term kit fox population monitoring program was initiated as part of DOE's mitigation strategy to comply with the Endangered Species Act. In addition to monitoring kit fox populations, the program includes assessments of kit fox prey density and assessments of predator abundance. The objectivesmore » of this study were to: describe the long term changes in the kit fox population on the Reserves and assess the roles of coyotes and lagomorphs in kit fox population dynamics. When the fox population on NPR-1 declined between 1980 and 1984, it appeared to have been negatively impacted by a declining prey base (lagomorphs) and an increasing coyote population. Declining lagomorph densities may have been a more important factor because as coyote numbers declined between 1985 and 1990, the kit fox population remained stable. The fox population on NPR-2 remained at a higher and more stable level than the population on NPR-1. The factors determining the higher densities and greater stability of the fox population on NPR-2 are unknown.« less

Invasion dynamics of white-nose syndrome fungus, midwestern United States, 2012-2014.

PubMed

Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Parise, Katy L; Kath, Joe; Kirk, Dan; Frick, Winifred F; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-06-01

White-nose syndrome has devastated bat populations in eastern North America. In Midwestern United States, prevalence increased quickly in the first year of invasion (2012-13) but with low population declines. In the second year (2013-14), environmental contamination led to earlier infection and high population declines. Interventions must be implemented before or soon after fungal invasion to prevent population collapse.

Milkweed Matters: Monarch butterfly (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) survival and development on nine Midwestern milkweed species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The population of monarch butterflies east of the Rocky Mountains has experienced a significant decline over the past twenty years. In order to increase monarch numbers in the breeding range, habitat restoration that includes planting milkweed plants is essential. Milkweeds in the genus Asclepias ...

Monarch butterfly oviposition preference supports a diversity of milkweed species on the landscape

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the past two decades, the population of monarch butterflies east of the Rocky Mountains has experienced a significant decline in overwintering numbers. Habitat restoration that includes planting milkweeds is essential to boost monarch numbers within the breeding range. Milkweeds are the only ho...

Urinary cadmium in the 1999–2008 U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)

EPA Science Inventory

Chronic low-level cadmium (Cd) exposure is linked to kidney and cardiovascular disease, fractures, and cancer. Diet and smoking are primary sources of exposure in the general population. We analyzed urinary Cd in NHANES 1999-2008 to determine whether levels declined significantly...

Genetic diversity of flowering dogwood in the Great Smokey Mountains National Park

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the past three decades, flowering dogwood (Cornus florida) populations have experienced severe declines caused by dogwood anthracnose. Mortality has ranged from 48 to 98%, raising the concern that the genetic diversity of this native tree has been reduced significantly. In this study we investiga...

Africa's Agenda for Action: Reform Policies, Renew Progress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johanson, Richard K., Ed.

1987-01-01

Unprecedented population growth and mounting fiscal austerity in Africa is causing a decline in the significant increases in educational progress, especially as measured by the median literacy rate, which were made between 1962 and 1985. Planning and implementation of educational programs carefully designed to effect economic growth is one path…

Immunization of bighorn sheep against mannheimia haemolytica with a bovine herpesvirus 1-vectored vaccine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pneumonia has significantly contributed to the drastic decline of bighorn sheep (BHS, Ovis canadensis) population in North America. Pneumonia outbreaks in BHS herds can incur mortalities up to 90%. Transplantation of healthy BHS into habitats that suffered pneumonia outbreaks has failed to restore B...

(Mixed) Race Matters: Racial Theory, Classification, and Campus Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wann, Chelsea Guillermo

2013-01-01

As the expanding post-civil rights multiracial population is likely to transform the demographics of American colleges and universities, its perceived growth is also misused to advance neo-conservative agendas and post-racial views about the declining significance of race. Politicized issues around multiraciality frame and impact the campus…

Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050

PubMed Central

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-01-01

We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge.

PubMed

Cavin, Liam; Jump, Alistair S

2017-01-01

Biogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changing perspectives on pearly mussels, North America's most imperiled animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strayer, David L.; Downing, John A.; Haag, Wendell R.; King, Timothy L.; Layzer, James B.; Newton, Teresa J.; Nichols, S. Jerrine

2004-01-01

Pearly mussels (Unionacea) are widespread, abundant, and important in freshwater ecosystems around the world. Catastrophic declines in pearly mussel populations in North America and other parts of the world have led to a flurry of research on mussel biology, ecology, and conservation. Recent research on mussel feeding, life history, spatial patterning, and declines has augmented, modified, or overturned long-held ideas about the ecology of these animals. Pearly mussel research has begun to benefit from and contribute to current ideas about suspension feeding, life-history theory, metapopulations, flow refuges, spatial patterning and its effects, and management of endangered species. At the same time, significant gaps in understanding and apparent paradoxes in pearly mussel ecology have been exposed. To conserve remaining mussel populations, scientists and managers must simultaneously and aggressively pursue both rigorous research and conservation actions.

Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Walpole, Matt; Collen, Ben; Van Strien, Arco; Scharlemann, Jorn P.W.; Almond, Rosamunde E.A.; Baillie, Jonathan E.M.; Bomhard, Bastian; Brown, Claire; Bruno, John; Carpenter, Kent E.; Carr, Genevieve M.; Chanson, Janice; Chenery, Anna M.; Csirke, Jorge; Davidson, Nick C.; Dentener, Frank; Foster, Matt; Galli, Alessandro; Galloway, James N.; Genovesi, Piero; Gregory, Richard D.; Hockings, Marc; Kapos, Valerie; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Leverington, Fiona; Loh, Jonathan; McGeoch, Melodie A.; McRae, Louise; Minasyan, Anahit; Morcillo, Monica Hernandez; Oldfield, Thomasina E.E.; Pauly, Daniel; Quader, Suhel; Revenga, Carmen; Sauer, John R.; Skolnik, Benjamin; Spear, Dian; Stanwell-Smith, Damon; Stuart, Simon N.; Symes, Andy; Tierney, Megan; Tyrrell, Tristan D.; Vie, Jean-Christophe; Watson, Reg

2011-01-01

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

PubMed Central

Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

2015-01-01

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

Hematology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (2005-2007): biomarker for an Arctic ecosystem health sentinel.

PubMed

Kirk, Cassandra M; Amstrup, Steven; Swor, Rhonda; Holcomb, Darce; O'Hara, Todd M

2010-09-01

Declines in sea-ice habitats have resulted in declining stature, productivity, and survival of polar bears in some regions. With continuing sea-ice declines, negative population effects are projected to expand throughout the polar bear's range. Precise causes of diminished polar bear life history performance are unknown, however, climate and sea-ice condition change are expected to adversely impact polar bear (Ursus maritimus) health and population dynamics. As apex predators in the Arctic, polar bears integrate the status of lower trophic levels and are therefore sentinels of ecosystem health. Arctic residents feed at the apex of the ecosystem, thus polar bears can serve as indicators of human health in the Arctic. Despite their value as indicators of ecosystem welfare, population-level health data for U.S. polar bears are lacking. We present hematological reference ranges for southern Beaufort Sea polar bears. Hematological parameters in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears varied by age, geographic location, and reproductive status. Total leukocytes, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, and serum immunoglobulin G were significantly greater in males than females. These measures were greater in nonlactating females ages ≥5, than lactating adult females ages ≥5, suggesting that females encumbered by young may be less resilient to new immune system challenges that may accompany ongoing climate change. Hematological values established here provide a necessary baseline for anticipated changes in health as arctic temperatures warm and sea-ice declines accelerate. Data suggest that females with dependent young may be most vulnerable to these changes and should therefore be a targeted cohort for monitoring in this sentinel.

C-reactive protein, APOE genotype and longitudinal cognitive change in an older population

PubMed Central

Lima, Thomas A. S.; Adler, Amanda L.; Minett, Thais; Matthews, Fiona E.; Brayne, Carol; Marioni, Riccardo E.

2014-01-01

Background: circulating measures of inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with an increased risk of future cognitive decline. However, the nature of the relationship among the very old (>75 years) is unclear. Cross-sectional evidence suggests that elevated CRP may even be protective in this age group. This study examines these associations longitudinally. Methods: logistic regression was used to investigate the association between CRP and drop in cognitive performance (≥3 point change on the Mini-Mental State Examination) over a 4-year period in a population of 266 people, mean age 77 years. Results: increased levels of CRP were associated with a decreased risk of a drop in cognitive performance; however, this association was only seen in those without an APOE e4 allele [odds ratio of decline per unit increase in ln(CRP) 0.57, P = 0.04]. The magnitude of the finding remained consistent after adjustment for cardiovascular confounders (smoking, drinking, MI, stroke, diabetes, education, medication and blood pressure). For those with an e4 allele, the relationship with longitudinal cognitive decline was neither statistically significant nor in a consistent direction after controlling for acute inflammation. Conclusions: this study strengthens previous cross-sectional findings and shows elevated levels of CRP to be linked to a decreased risk of longitudinal cognitive decline in the very old. However, as with prior analyses, this was only observed in those not carrying an APOE e4 allele. Future work on larger APOE e4 allele carrying samples is required to determine the nature of the association in this population. PMID:24305621

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Impact of the Triglycerides to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio on the Incidence and Progression of CKD: A Longitudinal Study in a Large Japanese Population.

PubMed

Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Yoshida, Hisako; Nagata, Masaharu; Kitazono, Takanari; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Konta, Tsuneo; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Narita, Ichiei; Kimura, Kenjiro; Kondo, Masahide; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

2015-12-01

The impact of the triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG:HDL-C) ratio on chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. Longitudinal cohort study. 124,700 participants aged 39 to 74 years in the Japanese Specific Health Check and Guidance System, including 50,392 men, 74,308 women, 102,900 without CKD, and 21,800 with CKD. Quartiles of TG:HDL-C ratio. Changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary protein excretion during the 2-year study period. Incident CKD in participants without CKD, and progression of CKD in participants with CKD. In the entire study population, higher quartile of TG:HDL-C ratio at baseline was significantly associated with greater decline in eGFR and increase in urinary protein excretion during the 2-year study period, even after adjustment for confounding factors. A higher ratio was associated with higher risk of incident CKD in participants without CKD and higher risk of rapid decline in eGFR and increase in urinary protein excretion in participants with CKD. Higher TG:HDL-C ratio was more strongly associated with decline in eGFR (P for interaction = 0.002) and with incident CKD (P for interaction = 0.05) in participants with diabetes than without diabetes. Short observation period and single measurement of all variables. A higher TG:HDL-C ratio affects the decline in eGFR and incidence and progression of CKD in the Japanese population. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of trophy hunting on lion and leopard populations in Tanzania.

PubMed

Packer, C; Brink, H; Kissui, B M; Maliti, H; Kushnir, H; Caro, T

2011-02-01

Tanzania holds most of the remaining large populations of African lions (Panthera leo) and has extensive areas of leopard habitat (Panthera pardus), and both species are subjected to sizable harvests by sport hunters. As a first step toward establishing sustainable management strategies, we analyzed harvest trends for lions and leopards across Tanzania's 300,000 km(2) of hunting blocks. We summarize lion population trends in protected areas where lion abundance has been directly measured and data on the frequency of lion attacks on humans in high-conflict agricultural areas. We place these findings in context of the rapidly growing human population in rural Tanzania and the concomitant effects of habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict, and cultural practices. Lion harvests declined by 50% across Tanzania between 1996 and 2008, and hunting areas with the highest initial harvests suffered the steepest declines. Although each part of the country is subject to some form of anthropogenic impact from local people, the intensity of trophy hunting was the only significant factor in a statistical analysis of lion harvest trends. Although leopard harvests were more stable, regions outside the Selous Game Reserve with the highest initial leopard harvests again showed the steepest declines. Our quantitative analyses suggest that annual hunting quotas be limited to 0.5 lions and 1.0 leopard/1000 km(2) of hunting area, except hunting blocks in the Selous Game Reserve, where harvests should be limited to 1.0 lion and 3.0 leopards/1000 km(2) . ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Patterns of linkage disequilibrium in mitochondrial DNA of 16 ruminant populations.

PubMed

Slate, J; Phua, S H

2003-03-01

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is a widely employed molecular tool in phylogeography, in the inference of human evolutionary history, in dating the domestication of livestock and in forensic science. In humans and other vertebrates the popularity of mtDNA can be partially attributed to an assumption of strict maternal inheritance, such that there is no recombination between mitochondrial lineages. The recent demonstration that linkage disequilibrium (LD) declines as a function of distance between polymorphic sites in hominid mitochondrial genomes has been interpreted as evidence of recombination between mtDNA haplotypes, and hence nonclonal inheritance. However, critics of mtDNA recombination have suggested that this association is an artefact of an inappropriate measure of LD or of sequencing error, and subsequent studies of other populations have failed to replicate the initial finding. Here we report the analysis of 16 ruminant populations and present evidence that LD significantly declines with distance in five of them. A meta-analysis of the data indicates a nonsignificant trend of LD declining with distance. Most of the earlier criticisms of patterns between LD and distance in hominid mtDNA are not applicable to this data set. Our results suggest that either ruminant mtDNA is not strictly clonal or that compensatory selection has influenced patterns of variation at closely linked sites within the mitochondrial control region. The potential impact of these processes should be considered when using mtDNA as a tool in vertebrate population genetic, phylogenetic and forensic studies.

River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Risley, Claire L; Barrett, Leigh A; Yujiang, Hao; Ding, Wang

2012-01-01

Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory) species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

Fate of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on Fresh-Cut Apple Tissue and Its Potential for Transmission by Fruit Flies

PubMed Central

Janisiewicz, W. J.; Conway, W. S.; Brown, M. W.; Sapers, G. M.; Fratamico, P.; Buchanan, R. L.

1999-01-01

Pathogenic Escherichia coli O157:H7, as well as nonpathogenic strains ATCC 11775 and ATCC 23716, grew exponentially in wounds on Golden Delicious apple fruit. The exponential growth occurred over a longer time period on fruit inoculated with a lower concentration of the bacterium than on fruit inoculated with a higher concentration. The bacterium reached the maximum population supported in the wounds regardless of the initial inoculum concentrations. Populations of E. coli O157:H7 in various concentrations of sterilized apple juice and unsterilized cider declined over time and declined more quickly in diluted juice and cider. The decline was greater in the unsterilized cider than in juice, which may have resulted from the interaction of E. coli O157:H7 with natural populations of yeasts that increased with time. Experiments on the transmission of E. coli by fruit flies, collected from a compost pile of decaying apples and peaches, were conducted with strain F-11775, a fluorescent transformant of nonpathogenic E. coli ATCC 11775. Fruit flies were easily contaminated externally and internally with E. coli F-11775 after contact with the bacterium source. The flies transmitted this bacterium to uncontaminated apple wounds, resulting in a high incidence of contaminated wounds. Populations of the bacterium in apple wounds increased significantly during the first 48 h after transmission. Further studies under commercial conditions are necessary to confirm these findings. PMID:9872751

A randomized controlled trial of Kundalini yoga in mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Eyre, Harris A; Siddarth, Prabha; Acevedo, Bianca; Van Dyk, Kathleen; Paholpak, Pattharee; Ercoli, Linda; St Cyr, Natalie; Yang, Hongyu; Khalsa, Dharma S; Lavretsky, Helen

2017-04-01

Global population aging will result in increasing rates of cognitive decline and dementia. Thus, effective, low-cost, and low side-effect interventions for the treatment and prevention of cognitive decline are urgently needed. Our study is the first to investigate the effects of Kundalini yoga (KY) training on mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Older participants (≥55 years of age) with MCI were randomized to either a 12-week KY intervention or memory enhancement training (MET; gold-standard, active control). Cognitive (i.e. memory and executive functioning) and mood (i.e. depression, apathy, and resilience) assessments were administered at baseline, 12 weeks and 24 weeks. At baseline, 81 participants had no significant baseline group differences in clinical or demographic characteristics. At 12 weeks and 24 weeks, both KY and MET groups showed significant improvement in memory; however, only KY showed significant improvement in executive functioning. Only the KY group showed significant improvement in depressive symptoms and resilience at week 12. KY group showed short- and long-term improvements in executive functioning as compared to MET, and broader effects on depressed mood and resilience. This observation should be confirmed in future clinical trials of yoga intervention for treatment and prevention of cognitive decline (NCT01983930).

Population and development in Asia and the Pacific: a demographic analysis.

PubMed

Debavalya, N

1982-06-01

Close examinations of population trends shows that the new trends reflect demographic changes that have occurred in many developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. In East Asia the population growth rate has declined rather rapidly from 1.94% in 1960-65 to 1.38% in 1975-80 and 1.24% in 1980-85. Since nearly 85% of this region's population is accounted for by China, demographic trends there virtually dictate the trends for the region as a whole. The available data suggest that the growth rate in China declined from 2.02% in 1970-75 to 1.4% in 1975-80 and is expected to reach 1.27% during 1980-85. The sharp decline in China's population growth rate is expected to continue. It is anticipated that the population of East Asia will increase to 1.4 billion by the year 2000. In addition, the growth rate has declined significantly in Japan and the Republic of Korea. The growth rate is declining in Eastern South and Middle South Asia as well. Longterm declines have brought growth rates down in Sri Lanka and Singapore. More recently, the rate of growth also has begun to fall in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, while it remains generally at high levels in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. In the Oceania region, 79% of which is made up of Australia and New Zealand, the growth rate is also steadily decreasing. Despite the decrease in the growth rate of Asia and the Pacific, especially during 1980-2000, in absolute terms its growth will be the largest in the world during these 29 years; 908 million out of 1687 million of the total growth. Asia and the Pacific will contribute more than 45 million people a year during the final 20 years of this century. For the world as a whole, the new estimates and projections indicate a slow but steady decline of the crude birthrate from 36.3/1000 in 1950-55 to 28.5 in 1975-80, then to 23.9 in 1995-2000, and finally to 17.9 in 2020-2025. China had a birthrate estimated at about 21 in 1975-80; and India and Indonesia had estimated rates in the range of 33-35. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand had estimated birthrates in the range of 15-18 in 1975-80. As was the case with fertility, the largest gains in mortality reduction have accrued among the less developed regions. In Asia mortality declines have slowed during recent years. Some substantial shifts in patterns of international migration have occurred in the flow of workers into the oil rich countries of Middle and Western South Asia. Migrants come closely from countries within the region, and there are growing numbers from India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and elsewhere. The number of people living in urban centers in Asia is increasing very rapidly. Meeting basic needs requires a dual target for each less developed country--an increase in gross national product per capita and a redistribution of income.

Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colby, Sandra L.; Ortman, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the…

Transformation of a cadaver population: Analysis of a South African cadaver program, 1921-2013.

PubMed

Kramer, Beverley; Hutchinson, Erin F

2015-01-01

Anatomy has served as a cornerstone in the training of various allied and clinical disciplines and has traditionally been based on dissection of the human body. Thus, to pursue this method of teaching and learning, access to cadavers is of continuing importance. Over a significant period of time unclaimed cadavers have performed an essential role in the teaching of anatomy in South Africa and in Africa. As recent cadaver numbers were declining at the School of Anatomical Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg and difficulty in procurement was being experienced, the purpose of this study was to critically evaluate the composition of our cadaver population over time so as to provide possible strategies to arrest the decline. A retrospective, quantitative analysis of cadaver records from the School of Anatomical Sciences between 1921 and 2013 was undertaken. Analysis included a comparison of Poisson counts and Fischer's exact test. A significant decrease in the number of cadavers received during the period 2000-2013 and a slow bequest program over the same period of time has led to concerns about the sustainability of teaching anatomy through dissection. Decreases in the numbers of males and cadavers of the black population group occurred between 1990 and 2013, and of bequests from 2000 to 2013. An influence on the cadaver population from a changing political climate and change in socioeconomic status of part of the population was perceived. Changes in sex and population group of the cadavers may have a long-term effect on teaching and research. © 2014 American Association of Anatomists.

Making It Harder to Smoke and Easier to Quit: The Effect of 10 Years of Tobacco Control in New York City

PubMed Central

Kilgore, Elizabeth A.; Mandel-Ricci, Jenna; Johns, Michael; Coady, Micaela H.; Perl, Sarah B.; Goodman, Andrew

2014-01-01

In 2002, New York City implemented a comprehensive tobacco control plan that discouraged smoking through excise taxes and smoke-free air laws and facilitated quitting through population-wide cessation services and hard-hitting media campaigns. Following the implementation of these activities through a well-funded and politically supported program, the adult smoking rate declined by 28% from 2002 to 2012, and the youth smoking rate declined by 52% from 2001 to 2011. These improvements indicate that local jurisdictions can have a significant positive effect on tobacco control. PMID:24825232

Cognitive Decline and Its Risk Factors in Prevalent Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Drew, David A; Weiner, Daniel E; Tighiouart, Hocine; Duncan, Sarah; Gupta, Aditi; Scott, Tammy; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-06-01

Cognitive impairment is common in patients treated with hemodialysis. The trajectory of cognitive function and risk factors for cognitive decline remain uncertain in this population. Longitudinal cohort. 314 prevalent hemodialysis patients. Age, sex, race, education level, hemodialysis vintage, cause of end-stage renal disease, and baseline history of cardiovascular disease. Cognitive function as determined by a comprehensive neurocognitive battery, administered at baseline and yearly when possible. Individual cognitive test results were reduced into 2 domain scores using principal components analysis, representing memory and executive function, which were used as our coprimary outcomes and by definition have a mean of zero and SD of 1. Mean age was 63 years; 54% were men, 22% were black, and 90% had at least a high school education. During a median follow-up of 2.1 (IQR, 0.9-4.2) years, 196 had at least 1 follow-up test, 156 died, and 43 received a kidney transplant. Linear mixed models and joint models, which accounted for competing risks from death, dropout, or kidney transplantation, showed nearly identical results. The joint model demonstrated a decline in executive function (-0.09 [95% CI, -0.13 to -0.05] SD per year), whereas memory improved slightly (0.05 [95% CI, 0.02 to 0.08] SD per year). A significant yearly decline was also seen in the Mini-Mental State Examination score (median change, -0.41; 95% CI, -0.57 to -0.25). Older age was the only significant risk factor for steeper executive function decline (-0.04 [95% CI, -0.06 to -0.02] SD steeper annual decline for each 10 years of age). Prevalent hemodialysis patients only, limited follow-up testing due to high mortality rate, and exclusion of participants with severe cognitive deficits or dementia. Prevalent hemodialysis patients demonstrate significant cognitive decline, particularly within tests of executive function. Older age was the only statistically significant risk factor for steeper cognitive decline, which may have important clinical consequences for patient management and education. Future studies should evaluate strategies to maintain or improve cognitive function. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resurrecting social infrastructure as a determinant of urban tuberculosis control in Delhi, India

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The key to universal coverage in tuberculosis (TB) management lies in community participation and empowerment of the population. Social infrastructure development generates social capital and addresses the crucial social determinants of TB, thereby improving program performance. Recently, there has been renewed interest in the concept of social infrastructure development for TB control in developing countries. This study aims to revive this concept and highlight the fact that documentation on ways to operationalize urban TB control is required from a holistic development perspective. Further, it explains how development of social infrastructure impacts health and development outcomes, especially with respect to TB in urban settings. Methods A wide range of published Government records pertaining to social development parameters and TB program surveillance, between 2001 and 2011 in Delhi, were studied. Social infrastructure development parameters like human development index along with other indicators reflecting patient profile and habitation in urban settings were selected as social determinants of TB. These include adult literacy rates, per capita income, net migration rates, percentage growth in slum population, and percentage of urban population living in one-room dwelling units. The impact of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program on TB incidence was assessed as an annual decline in new TB cases notified under the program. Univariate linear regression was employed to examine the interrelationship between social development parameters and TB program outcomes. Results The decade saw a significant growth in most of the social development parameters in the State. TB program performance showed 46% increment in lives saved among all types of TB cases per 100,000 population. The 7% reduction in new TB case notifications from the year 2001 to 2011, translates to a logarithmic decline of 5.4 new TB cases per 100,000 population. Except per capita income, literacy, and net migration rates, other social determinants showed significant correlation with decline in new TB cases per 100,000 population. Conclusions Social infrastructure development leads to social capital generation which engenders positive growth in TB program outcomes. Strategies which promote social infrastructure development should find adequate weightage in the overall policy framework for urban TB control in developing countries. PMID:24438431

Resurrecting social infrastructure as a determinant of urban tuberculosis control in Delhi, India.

PubMed

Chandra, Shivani; Sharma, Nandini; Joshi, Kulanand; Aggarwal, Nishi; Kannan, Anjur Tupil

2014-01-17

The key to universal coverage in tuberculosis (TB) management lies in community participation and empowerment of the population. Social infrastructure development generates social capital and addresses the crucial social determinants of TB, thereby improving program performance. Recently, there has been renewed interest in the concept of social infrastructure development for TB control in developing countries. This study aims to revive this concept and highlight the fact that documentation on ways to operationalize urban TB control is required from a holistic development perspective. Further, it explains how development of social infrastructure impacts health and development outcomes, especially with respect to TB in urban settings. A wide range of published Government records pertaining to social development parameters and TB program surveillance, between 2001 and 2011 in Delhi, were studied. Social infrastructure development parameters like human development index along with other indicators reflecting patient profile and habitation in urban settings were selected as social determinants of TB. These include adult literacy rates, per capita income, net migration rates, percentage growth in slum population, and percentage of urban population living in one-room dwelling units. The impact of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Program on TB incidence was assessed as an annual decline in new TB cases notified under the program. Univariate linear regression was employed to examine the interrelationship between social development parameters and TB program outcomes. The decade saw a significant growth in most of the social development parameters in the State. TB program performance showed 46% increment in lives saved among all types of TB cases per 100,000 population. The 7% reduction in new TB case notifications from the year 2001 to 2011, translates to a logarithmic decline of 5.4 new TB cases per 100,000 population. Except per capita income, literacy, and net migration rates, other social determinants showed significant correlation with decline in new TB cases per 100,000 population. Social infrastructure development leads to social capital generation which engenders positive growth in TB program outcomes. Strategies which promote social infrastructure development should find adequate weightage in the overall policy framework for urban TB control in developing countries.

Spatial variation in senescence rates in a bird metapopulation.

PubMed

Holand, H; Kvalnes, T; Gamelon, M; Tufto, J; Jensen, H; Pärn, H; Ringsby, T H; Sæther, B-E

2016-07-01

Investigating factors which affect the decline in survival with age, i.e. actuarial senescence, is important in order to understand how demographic rates vary in wild populations. Although the evidence for the occurrence of actuarial senescence in wild populations is growing, very few studies have compared actuarial senescence rates between wild populations of the same species. We used data from a long-time study of demography of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) to investigate differences in rates of actuarial senescence between habitats and sub-populations. We also investigated whether rates of actuarial senescence differed between males and females. We found that rates of actuarial senescence showed large spatial variation. We also found that the onset of actuarial senescence varied between sub-populations. However, these differences were not significantly explained by a general difference in habitat type. We also found no significant difference in actuarial senescence rates between males and females. This study shows that senescence rates in natural populations may vary significantly between sub-populations and that failing to account for such differences may give a biased estimate of senescence rates of a species.

Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

PubMed

Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

2012-02-01

Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little government support to conserve vultures despite mounting evidence of the major threats. In other regions with successful vulture conservation programs, a common theme is a huge investment of financial resources and highly skilled personnel, as well as political will and community support. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

[Speech by Oscar Julian Bardeci, director of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia (CELADE), at the Latinamerican Regional Meeting prior to the International Conference on Population in recognition of the Second Meeting on Population by the Committee of Upper-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Havana, Cuba, November 16-19, 1983].

PubMed

Bardeci, O J

1983-12-01

This work examines the relationship between population growth and economic development in Latin America and assesses progress in the 10 years since the Bucharest World Population Conference. The Latin American population increased from about 159 million in 1950 to 275 million in 1970 and around 325 million in 1980. The rate of growth reached a maximum of 2.8%/year in the early 1970s and has now declined to about 2.3%/year. The regional growth rate is a product of population dynamics that differ greatly in individual countries. Crude birth rates declined in every country of Latin America between 1975-80, but still exceeded 40/1000 in 1980-85 in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Current fertility is the result of the different trajectories of the demographic transition in different countries. While fertility in Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay underwent a slow but sustained decline that began prior to 1960, other countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela began an accelerated fertility decline in the 1960s that diffused rapidly through all age and social groups. Other countries have still not entered a definite phase of fertility decline. Mortality rates have declined appreciably in Latin America in the past few decades although they remain high in some countries. After the end of World War II and until the mid-1970s, most countries of the region experienced rapid economic growth coupled with profound changes in the productive structure. The industrial labor force grew in almost all countries along with urbanization, the decline of agricultural employment, and the increase of the tertiary sector. These and other important economic advances through the mid-1970s occurred despite rapid population growth, and the beginning of the fertility decline coincided with slowing economic growth that saw negative rates in 1981-82. Various studies have shown that not all population sectors were incorporated in the process of economic and social development. The proportion of the population in active age groups has increased dramatically, but no corresponding increase in employment opportunities has occurred. The informal sector has absorbed most of the excess growth, a trend reflected in the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the fruits of economic progress. Population growth and increased life expectancy have created demands for more retirement benefits, health and educational services, transportation, recreation, and housing. Nevertheless, it cannot be concluded that rapid population growth necessarily has negative consequences for economic development or social welfare. There are indications that the problem of poverty in Latin America could be solved if the political will to do so existed; obstacles to overcoming poverty are not primarily material or population-related. Urbanization, settlement of marginal areas, and relative decline of agricultural areas are 3 trends in spatial distribution of varying intensity and repercussions in different countries.

Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

Treesearch

Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

2014-01-01

Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

Ups and Downs of Burbot and their predator Lake Trout in Lake Superior, 1953-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorman, Owen T.; Sitar, Shawn P.

2013-01-01

The fish community of Lake Superior has undergone a spectacular cycle of decline and recovery over the past 60 years. A combination of Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus depredation and commercial overfishing resulted in severe declines in Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush, which served as the primary top predator of the community. Burbot Lota lota populations also declined as a result of Sea Lamprey depredation, largely owing to the loss of adult fish. After Sea Lamprey control measures were instituted in the early 1960s, Burbot populations rebounded rapidly but Lake Trout populations recovered more slowly and recovery was not fully evident until the mid-1980s. As Lake Trout populations recovered, Burbot populations began to decline, and predation on small Burbot was identified as the most likely cause. By 2000, Burbot densities had dropped below their nadir in the early 1960s and have continued to decline, with the densities of juveniles and small adults falling below that of large adults. Although Burbot populations are at record lows in Lake Superior, the density of large reproductive adults remains stable and a large reserve of adult Burbot is present in deep offshore waters. The combination of the Burbot's early maturation, long life span, and high fecundity provides the species with the resiliency to remain a viable member of the Lake Superior fish community into the foreseeable future.

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

PubMed

Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

2015-12-01

We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

Population dynamics of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik: 1966-2012.

PubMed

Miquelle, Dale G; Smirnov, Evgeny N; Zaumyslova, Olga Yu; Soutyrina, Svetlana V; Johnson, Douglas H

2015-07-01

In 2010, the world's tiger (Panthera tigris) range countries agreed to the goal of doubling tiger numbers over 12 years, but whether such an increase is biologically feasible has not been assessed. Long-term monitoring of tigers in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), Russia provided an opportunity to determine growth rates of a recovering population. A 41-year growth phase was followed by a rapid decline in tiger numbers. Annual growth rates during the growth phase averaged 4.6%, beginning near 10% in the earliest years but quickly dropping below 5%. Sex ratio (females per male) mirrored growth rates, declining as population size increased. The rapid decline from 2009 to 2012 appeared to be tied to multiple factors, including poaching, severe winters and disease. Reproductive indicators of this population are similar to those of Bengal tiger populations, suggesting that growth rates may be similar. These results suggest that, first, tiger populations likely in general grow slowly: 3-5% yearly increases are realistic and larger growth rates are likely only when populations are highly depressed, mortality rates are low and prey populations are high relative to numbers of adult females. Second, while more research is needed, it should not be assumed that tiger populations with high prey densities will necessarily grow more quickly than populations with low prey densities. Third, while growth is slow, decline can be rapid. Fourth, because declines can happen so quickly, there is a constant need to monitor populations and be ready to respond with appropriate and timely conservation interventions if tiger populations are to remain secure. Finally, an average annual growth rate across all tiger populations of 6%, required to reach the Global Tiger Initiative's goal of doubling tiger numbers in 12 years, is a noble but unlikely scenario. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Variations in teenage birth rates, 1991-98: national and state trends.

PubMed

Ventura, S J; Curtin, S C; Mathews, T J

2000-04-24

This report presents national birth rates for teenagers for 1991-98 and the percent change, 1991-98. State-specific teenage birth rates by age, race, and Hispanic origin for 1991 and 1998 and the percent change, 1991 to 1998, are also presented. Tabular and graphical descriptions of the trends in teenage birth rates for the Nation and each State, by age group, race, and Hispanic origin of the mother, are discussed. Birth rates for teenagers 15-19 years declined nationally between 1991 and 1998 for all age and race and Hispanic origin populations, with the steepest declines recorded for black teenagers. State-specific rates fell significantly in all States for ages 15-19 years; declines ranged from 10 to 38 percent. In general, rates by State fell more for younger than for older teenagers, ranging by State from 10 to 46 percent for ages 15-17 years. Statistically significant reductions for older teenagers ranged from 3 to 39 percent. Reductions by State were largest for black teenagers 15-19 years, with rates falling 30 percent or more in 15 States. Among the factors accounting for these declines are decreased sexual activity, increases in condom use, and the adoption of the implant and injectable contraceptives.

Changes in verbal learning and memory in schizophrenia and non-psychotic controls in midlife: A nine-year follow-up in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort study 1966.

PubMed

Rannikko, Irina; Haapea, Marianne; Miettunen, Jouko; Veijola, Juha; Murray, Graham K; Barnett, Jennifer H; Husa, Anja P; Jones, Peter B; Isohanni, Matti; Jääskeläinen, Erika

2015-08-30

Findings on longitudinal change of cognitive performance in schizophrenia are extremely variable in the case of verbal learning and memory, and it is still unclear which dimensions of verbal learning and memory exhibit possible deterioration over the long-term. Our aim was to compare the change in verbal learning and memory in individuals with schizophrenia 10-20 years after the illness onset and healthy controls during a nine-year follow-up in a general population sample. Our sample included 41 schizophrenia spectrum subjects and 73 controls from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort study 1966. The California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) was used to estimate the degree of change in verbal learning and memory during a nine-year follow-up from age 34-years to 43- years. Both cases and controls deteriorated. There was statistically significant decline in two out of 20 CVLT items among cases and in 13 out of 20 CVLT items among controls. With the exception of two variables, the decline in verbal learning and memory over nine years was not significantly larger in cases. We conclude that during midlife verbal learning and memory in schizophrenia mostly declines in a normative fashion with aging at the same rate as the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Significant decline in the tuberculosis burden in the Philippines ten years after initiating DOTS.

PubMed

Tupasi, T E; Radhakrishna, S; Chua, J A; Mangubat, N V; Guilatco, R; Galipot, M; Ramos, G; Quelapio, M I D; Beltran, G; Legaspi, J; Vianzon, R G; Lagahid, J

2009-10-01

The Philippines ranks ninth among the 22 high-burden countries for tuberculosis (TB). To measure the burden of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in the Philippines and determine the impact of the DOTS strategy. The 2007 nationwide TB prevalence survey covered 50 clusters selected by multi-stage stratified random sampling from Metro Manila and other urban and rural areas. Subjects aged >or=10 years were screened radiographically for PTB to identify subjects for sputum examination and determine the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed PTB, i.e., smear- and/or culture-positive PTB. In subjects aged >or=10 years, the 2007 prevalence of radiographic PTB was 6.3% (95%CI 5.5-7.1), bacteriologically confirmed PTB was 6.6 per 1000 (95%CI 5.1-8.1) and sputum smear-positive PTB was 2.6/1000 (95%CI 1.7-3.6). For the total population, the corresponding estimates were respectively 4.7%, 4.9/1000 and 2.0/1000. Between 1997 and 2007, there was a 31% reduction in bacteriologically confirmed PTB (P < 0.02) and a 27% reduction in smear-positive PTB (P = 0.18). This decline occurred despite the increasing poverty in the population. The survey demonstrated a significant decline in the TB burden 10 years after the implementation of DOTS, facilitated by a strategic public-private partnership.

Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

PubMed Central

Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

2014-01-01

Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will become worse over time. Our results suggest that forest restoration designed to reduce the detrimental impacts of agriculture on breeding may also help reduce the detrimental effects of breeding late due to wetter springs. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects of environmental change when managing wild populations. PMID:25558086

Recovery of breeding success in a population of brown pelicans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendenhall, Vivian M.; Prouty, Richard M.; Southern, William E.

1979-01-01

Breeding populations of the brown pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) declined during the 1960's on both east and west coasts of the United States. In 1969, colonies in South Carolina fledged an average of 0.78 young per nest (Blus et al. 1974b), and those in California only 0.004 (Anderson et al. 1975). The minimum production for population stability has been estimated to be 1.0 to 1.2 fledglings per nest (Henny 1972, Anderson et al. 1977). The South Carolina population may have decreased by as much as 80% during the previous decade (Blus 1970). Organochlorine pesticides were implicated as a cause of population decline. Eggs from South Carolina contained an average of 5.4 parts per million (ppm) of DDE (wet weight basis) in 1969, and those from California about 70 ppm wet weight (Blus et al. 1974a, Anderson et al. 1975). Shells of South Carolina brown pelican eggs were,17% thinner than normal, and those from California were 30% thinner, compared with shells of eggs laid before DDE was introduced in 1947 (Blus et al. 1974a, Anderson et al. 1975); crushed eggs were common in the colonies. DDE was the primary cause of shell thinning (Blus et al. 1971), but dieldrin was also associated with breeding failure, and both may be embryotoxic (Porter and Wiemeyer 1969, Longcore et al. 1971, Blus et al. 1974b). Brown pelicans also declined in Louisiana and Texas during this period, in association with shell thinning and relatively high organochlorine levels (Anderson and Hickey 1970, Blus et al. 1975, King et al. 1977). Eggs of pelicans in Florida, however, contained lower residues, and numbers have remained stable (Williams and Martin 1970). In 1969, the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center and Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge initiated an intensive study of the South Carolina population. Size of the breeding colonies, production, eggshell thickness, and organochlorine residues were monitored each year. Between 1969 and 1976 organochlorines in the eggs declined gradually, reproductive success improved, and the breeding population doubled (Blus et al. 1979). We have continued to monitor the South Carolina brown pelican population. Results for 1977 and 1978 are presented here, with an evaluation of the significance and possible causes of current breeding success.

Test of the invasive pathogen hypothesis of bumble bee decline in North America.

PubMed

Cameron, Sydney A; Lim, Haw Chuan; Lozier, Jeffrey D; Duennes, Michelle A; Thorp, Robbin

2016-04-19

Emergent fungal diseases are critical factors in global biodiversity declines. The fungal pathogenNosema bombiwas recently found to be widespread in declining species of North American bumble bees (Bombus), with circumstantial evidence suggesting an exotic introduction from Europe. This interpretation has been hampered by a lack of knowledge of global genetic variation, geographic origin, and changing prevalence patterns ofN. bombiin declining North American populations. Thus, the temporal and spatial emergence ofN. bombiand its potential role in bumble bee decline remain speculative. We analyzeNosemaprevalence and genetic variation in the United States and Europe from 1980, before an alleged introduction in the early 1990s, to 2011, extractingNosemaDNA fromBombusnatural history collection specimens from across this time period.Nosema bombiprevalence increased significantly from low detectable frequency in the 1980s to significantly higher frequency in the mid- to late-1990s, corresponding to a period of reported massive infectious outbreak ofN. bombiin commercial bumble bee rearing stocks in North America. Despite the increased frequency, we find no conclusive evidence of an exoticN. bombiorigin based on genetic analysis of globalNosemapopulations; the widespreadNosemastrain found currently in declining United States bumble bees was present in the United States before commercial colony trade. Notably, the USN. bombiis not detectably different from that found predominantly throughout Western Europe, with both regions characterized by low genetic diversity compared with high levels of diversity found in Asia, where commercial bee breeding activities are low or nonexistent.

Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies

PubMed Central

Thayer, Bradley A.

2009-01-01

This study analyses the relationship between war and population. The impact of the growth and decline of population on important types of warfare—great power, small power, civil war as well as terrorism—is illustrated, with the objective in each case to be descriptive of risk. I find that population change has a significant impact on each, with the greatest causal impact on small power conflicts, civil war and upon terrorism. I conclude with some reasons for guarded optimism about the incorporation of population as a component of analysis in the discipline of international studies, and for the potential to devise new solutions to prevent conflict. PMID:19770157

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2013-11-01

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other more realistic cases of technological success, we find that endogenous technology change only helps to delay the peak of population size before it inevitably starts to decline. While the model is a rather simple model of societal development, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological and population changes. It is capable of replicating the pattern of declining consumption per capita in presence of growth in aggregate production. It is also capable of replicating an exponential population rise, even under increasing water scarcity. The results of the model suggest that societies that declined or are declining in the face of extreme water scarcity may have done so due to slower rate of success of investment in technological advancement. The model suggests that the population decline occurs after a prolonged decline in consumption per capita, which in turn is due to the joint effect of initially increasing population and increasing water scarcity. This is despite technological advancement and increase in aggregate production. We suggest that declining consumption per capita despite technological advancement and increase in aggregate production may serve as a useful predictor of upcoming decline in contemporary societies in water scarce basins.

A review of possible causes of nutrient enrichment and decline of endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bortleson, Gilbert C.; Fretwell, Marvin O.

1993-01-01

Ten possible causes for this excessive enrichment in nutrients are described. Three of these hypotheses are suggested for immediate testing because of large-scale changes in nutrient loading that may have occurred as a result of man’s activities. These three hypotheses relate nutrient enrichment to (1) conversion of marshland to agricultural land, (2) agricultural drainage from the basin, and (3) reservoir regulation. Eleven possible hypothetical causes for the decline in sucker populations also are described. The decline in sucker population may be related to excessive nutrient enrichment (eutrophication) of the lake.

The sequential megafaunal collapse hypothesis: Testing with existing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMaster, Douglas P.; Trites, Andrew W.; Clapham, Phillip; Mizroch, Sally; Wade, Paul; Small, Robert J.; Hoef, Jay Ver

2006-02-01

Springer et al. [Springer, A.M., Estes, J.A., van Vliet, G.B., Williams, T.M., Doak, D.F., Danner, E.M., Forney, K.A., Pfister, B., 2003. Sequential megafaunal collapse in the North Pacific Ocean: an ongoing legacy of industrial whaling? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100 (21), 12,223-12,228] hypothesized that great whales were an important prey resource for killer whales, and that the removal of fin and sperm whales by commercial whaling in the region of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) in the late 1960s and 1970s led to cascading trophic interactions that caused the sequential decline of populations of harbor seal, northern fur seal, Steller sea lion and northern sea otter. This hypothesis, referred to as the Sequential Megafaunal Collapse (SMC), has stirred considerable interest because of its implication for ecosystem-based management. The SMC has the following assumptions: (1) fin whales and sperm whales were important as prey species in the Bering Sea; (2) the biomass of all large whale species (i.e., North Pacific right, fin, humpback, gray, sperm, minke and bowhead whales) was in decline in the Bering Sea in the 1960s and early 1970s; and (3) pinniped declines in the 1970s and 1980s were sequential. We concluded that the available data are not consistent with the first two assumptions of the SMC. Statistical tests of the timing of the declines do not support the assumption that pinniped declines were sequential. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the declines that are more consistent with the available data. While it is plausible, from energetic arguments, for predation by killer whales to have been an important factor in the declines of one or more of the three populations of pinnipeds and the sea otter population in the BSAI region over the last 30 years, we hypothesize that the declines in pinniped populations in the BSAI can best be understood by invoking a multiple factor hypothesis that includes both bottom-up forcing (as indicated by evidence of nutritional stress in the western Steller sea lion population) and top-down forcing (e.g., predation by killer whales, mortality incidental to commercial fishing, directed harvests). Our second hypothesis is a modification of the top-down forcing mechanism (i.e., killer whale predation on one or more of the pinniped populations and the sea otter population is mediated via the recovery of the eastern North Pacific population of the gray whale). We remain skeptical about the proposed link between commercial whaling on fin and sperm whales, which ended in the mid-1960s, and the observed decline of populations of northern fur seal, harbor seal, and Steller sea lion some 15 years later.

Depressive symptoms predict cancer caregivers' physical health decline.

PubMed

Shaffer, Kelly M; Kim, Youngmee; Carver, Charles S; Cannady, Rachel S

2017-11-01

Cancer caregiving has been associated with worsening health among caregivers themselves, yet demographic and psychosocial predictors of their long-term health decline are less known. This study examines changes in caregivers' physical health 2 to 8 years after their family members' cancer diagnosis and prospective predictors of that change. Caregivers (n = 664; mean age, 53.2 years) participated in a nationwide study at 2 (T1), 5 (T2), and 8 (T3) years after their family members' cancer diagnosis. Physical health (12-item Medical Outcomes Study Short Form Health Survey Physical Component Scale) was assessed T1 through T3 as outcome. Predictors were self-reported at T1, including caregiver demographics (age, sex, education, income, relationship to patient, and employment status), patient cancer severity (from medical records), and caregiver psychosocial factors (caregiving stress, caregiving esteem, social support, and depressive symptoms). Latent growth modeling tested predictors of caregivers' initial physical health and their physical health change across time. At T1, caregivers reported slightly better physical health than the US population (M = 51.22, P = .002), which declined over the following 6 years (M slope = -0.27, P < .001). All demographic factors, patient cancer severity, and T1 caregiving stress were related to caregivers' initial physical health (P ≤ .03). Higher depressive symptoms were unrelated to caregivers' initial physical health, but were the only significant predictor of caregivers' more rapid physical health decline (B = -0.02, P = .004). Findings highlight the unique contribution of caregivers' depressive symptoms to their physical health decline. Assessing and addressing depressive symptoms among caregivers early in the cancer survivorship trajectory may help to prevent premature health decline among this important yet vulnerable population. Cancer 2017;123:4277-4285. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

2008-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

Defaunation in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Dirzo, Rodolfo; Young, Hillary S; Galetti, Mauro; Ceballos, Gerardo; Isaac, Nick J B; Collen, Ben

2014-07-25

We live amid a global wave of anthropogenically driven biodiversity loss: species and population extirpations and, critically, declines in local species abundance. Particularly, human impacts on animal biodiversity are an under-recognized form of global environmental change. Among terrestrial vertebrates, 322 species have become extinct since 1500, and populations of the remaining species show 25% average decline in abundance. Invertebrate patterns are equally dire: 67% of monitored populations show 45% mean abundance decline. Such animal declines will cascade onto ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Much remains unknown about this "Anthropocene defaunation"; these knowledge gaps hinder our capacity to predict and limit defaunation impacts. Clearly, however, defaunation is both a pervasive component of the planet's sixth mass extinction and also a major driver of global ecological change. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Temporal change in genetic integrity suggests loss of local adaptation in a wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population following introgression by farmed escapees.

PubMed

Bourret, V; O'Reilly, P T; Carr, J W; Berg, P R; Bernatchez, L

2011-03-01

In some wild Atlantic salmon populations, rapid declines in numbers of wild returning adults has been associated with an increase in the prevalence of farmed salmon. Studies of phenotypic variation have shown that interbreeding between farmed and wild salmon may lead to loss of local adaptation. Yet, few studies have attempted to assess the impact of interbreeding at the genome level, especially among North American populations. Here, we document temporal changes in the genetic makeup of the severely threatened Magaguadavic River salmon population (Bay of Fundy, Canada), a population that might have been impacted by interbreeding with farmed salmon for nearly 20 years. Wild and farmed individuals caught entering the river from 1980 to 2005 were genotyped at 112 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and/or eight microsatellite loci, to scan for potential shifts in adaptive genetic variation. No significant temporal change in microsatellite-based estimates of allele richness or gene diversity was detected in the wild population, despite its precipitous decline in numbers over the last two decades. This might reflect the effect of introgression from farmed salmon, which was corroborated by temporal change in linkage-disequilibrium. Moreover, SNP genome scans identified a temporal decrease in candidate loci potentially under directional selection. Of particular interest was a SNP previously shown to be strongly associated with an important quantitative trait locus for parr mark number, which retained its genetic distinctiveness between farmed and wild fish longer than other outliers. Overall, these results indicate that farmed escapees have introgressed with wild Magaguadavic salmon resulting in significant alteration of the genetic integrity of the native population, including possible loss of adaptation to wild conditions.

Temporal change in genetic integrity suggests loss of local adaptation in a wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population following introgression by farmed escapees

PubMed Central

Bourret, V; O'Reilly, P T; Carr, J W; Berg, P R; Bernatchez, L

2011-01-01

In some wild Atlantic salmon populations, rapid declines in numbers of wild returning adults has been associated with an increase in the prevalence of farmed salmon. Studies of phenotypic variation have shown that interbreeding between farmed and wild salmon may lead to loss of local adaptation. Yet, few studies have attempted to assess the impact of interbreeding at the genome level, especially among North American populations. Here, we document temporal changes in the genetic makeup of the severely threatened Magaguadavic River salmon population (Bay of Fundy, Canada), a population that might have been impacted by interbreeding with farmed salmon for nearly 20 years. Wild and farmed individuals caught entering the river from 1980 to 2005 were genotyped at 112 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and/or eight microsatellite loci, to scan for potential shifts in adaptive genetic variation. No significant temporal change in microsatellite-based estimates of allele richness or gene diversity was detected in the wild population, despite its precipitous decline in numbers over the last two decades. This might reflect the effect of introgression from farmed salmon, which was corroborated by temporal change in linkage-disequilibrium. Moreover, SNP genome scans identified a temporal decrease in candidate loci potentially under directional selection. Of particular interest was a SNP previously shown to be strongly associated with an important quantitative trait locus for parr mark number, which retained its genetic distinctiveness between farmed and wild fish longer than other outliers. Overall, these results indicate that farmed escapees have introgressed with wild Magaguadavic salmon resulting in significant alteration of the genetic integrity of the native population, including possible loss of adaptation to wild conditions. PMID:21224876

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development

PubMed Central

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loss, Scott R.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity. PMID:26963254

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

PubMed

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Demography and decline of the Mentasta Caribou Herd, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Barten, Neil L.

2005-01-01

We evaluated population trends in the Mentasta caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) herd in Wrangell a?? St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, from 1990 to 1997 and determined factors contributing to its decline. We postulated that predation-related mortality of adult females and juveniles was the proximate cause of the decline, and that survival of juvenile caribou reflected interactions with winter severity, calving distribution, timing of births, density of caribou, and physical condition of neonates at birth. The population declined at its greatest rate from 1990 to 1993 (r = a??0.32) and at a lower rate from 1994 to 1997 (r = a??0.09). Recruitment (number of calves/100 females during September) averaged 4/100 during the rapid population decline from 1990 to 1993 and 13/100 from 1994 to 1997. Parturition rate of adult females ranged from 65% to 97%. Survival of adult females and juveniles ranged from 0.77 to 0.86 and from 0.00 to 0.22, respectively. Approximately 43%, 59%, and 79% of all juvenile mortality occurred by 1, 2, and 4 weeks of age, respectively. We confirmed predation-related mortality as the primary proximate cause of population decline, with gray wolves (Canis lupus L., 1758), bears (species of the genus Ursus L., 1758), and other predators accounting for 57%, 38%, and 5%, respectively, of all juvenile mortality, and bears causing disproportionate mortality among 0- to 1-week-old neonates. We supported the hypotheses that timing of birth and habitat conditions at the birth site, particularly mottled snow patterns, affected vulnerability and survival of neonates, and birth mass affected survival of juveniles through summer. We speculate that the population will continue to decline before reaching a low-density equilibrium that is sustained by density-dependent changes in the functional responses of predators.

Crossing the Finish Line: Helping Adults with Significant College Credit Get Back on Track to a College Degree. Complete to Compete Briefing Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michelau, Demaree K.

2011-01-01

Nearly all states are grappling with the question of how to boost college attainment to meet workforce needs with the resources available. For many states, that task is complicated by the fact that the young adult population is projected neither to grow nor decline over the next several years. There is a significant opportunity, however, for…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeGange, A.R.; Douglas, D.C.; Monson, D.H.

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) abundance and distribution in the Gulf of Alaska west of Prince William Sound were surveyed by helicopter in the spring of 1989 at the time of the Exxon Valdez oil spill and the following fall. Estimated population sizes did not significantly decline between spring and fall for areas with comparable survey data. No significant (p>0.05) shifts of sea otter distributions in heavily, lightly and unoiled areas were detected between spring and fall surveys.

Status review of the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Alaska and British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatt, John F.; Kuletz, K.J.; Burger, A.E.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Friesen, Vicki L.; Birt, T.P.; Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Drew, G.S.; Harding, A.M.A.; Bixler, K.S.

2007-01-01

The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a small, diving seabird inhabiting inshore waters of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. This species feeds on small, schooling fishes and zooplankton, and nests primarily on the moss-covered branches of large, old-growth conifers, and also, in some parts of its range, on the ground. We reviewed existing information on this species to evaluate its current status in the northern part of its range-Alaska (U.S.) and British Columbia (Canada). Within the southern part of its range (Washington, Oregon, and California, U.S.), the Marbled Murrelet was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1993, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) needed information on the species throughout its range for ESA deliberations. We compiled published information on the conservation status, population biology, foraging ecology, population genetics, population status and trends, demography, marine and nesting habitat characteristics, threats, and ongoing conservation efforts for Marbled Murrelets in Alaska and British Columbia. We conducted a new genetic study using samples from a segment of the range that had not been included in previous studies (Washington, Oregon) and additional nuclear intron and microsatellite markers. We also analyzed available at-sea survey data from several locations for trend. To understand the reasonableness of the empirical trend data, we developed demographic models incorporating stochasticity to discern what population trends were possible by chance. The genetic studies substantially confirmed previous findings on population structure in the Marbled Murrelet. Our present work finds three populations: (1) one comprising birds in the central and western Aleutian Islands; (2) one comprising birds in central California; and (3) one comprising birds within the center of the range from the eastern Aleutians to northern California. Our knowledge of genetic structure within this central population is limited and it requires additional study. Compiling available abundance information, we estimated that in the recent past, Marbled Murrelets in Alaska numbered on the order of 1 million birds. We were unable to generate a similar estimate for historical population size in British Columbia. Using trend information from at-sea surveys spanning a wide geographic range in Alaska, murrelet numbers declined significantly at five of eight trend sites at annual rates of -5.4 to -12.7 percent since the early 1990s. Applying these rates of decline to the historical population estimate, the current murrelet population in Alaska is projected to be on the order of 270,000 birds. This represents an overall population decline of about 70 percent during the past 25 years. In British Columbia, available trend data indicate that murrelet populations there have experienced similar declines. We updated a recent (2002) population estimate for British Columbia, concluding that there are now between 54,000 and 92,000 murrelets in British Columbia. The rates of decline we observed are within, but at the high end of, a range of rates expected by chance. Given that declines were estimated for sites over essentially the entire northern range of the species, there is cause for concern about the species? status. In their marine habitats, Marbled Murrelets overlap with salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) gillnetting operations in British Columbia and in Alaska (especially in Prince William Sound and Southeast Alaska), and annual bycatch mortality is likely in the low thousands per year, although bycatch rates are difficult to measure. The species? inshore distribution coincides with high levels of vessel traffic and makes them especially vulnerable to both chronic oil pollution and to catastrophic spills (e.g., the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill [EVOS] in south-central Alaska, which is estimated to have killed 12,000 to 15,000 murrelets). In their forested nesting habitats, Marbled Murrelets have lost about 15 percent of their suitable nesting habitat in Southeast Alaska, and 33 to 49 percent in British Columbia, from industrial-scale logging within the past half century. Increased predation also may be a threat to murrelet populations, related to fragmentation and edge effects from logging and development, and recent population increases observed for some important murrelet predators, including Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), Common Ravens (Corvus corax), and Steller?s Jays (Cyanocitta stelleri). Nesting habitat losses cannot explain the declines observed in areas where industrial logging has not occurred on a large scale (e.g., Prince William Sound) or at all (Glacier Bay). The apparent change in population size and rates of decline reported for the Marbled Murrelet are large, and we therefore considered alternative explanations and precedents for changes of similar magnitude in other marine wildlife populations in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The declines are likely real, and related to combined and cumulative effects from climate-related changes in the marine ecosystem (most likely the 1977 regime shift) and human activities (logging, gillnet bycatch, oil pollution). Much uncertainty about the decline could be alleviated by continuing to repeat boat surveys in Prince William Sound and lower Cook Inlet, and by repeating the boat survey of Southeast Alaska that was conducted in 1994. This survey used a statistically sound design and covered the region that has been and likely remains the center of the species? abundance. Important questions remain to be addressed about methods for measuring population status and change, adult mortality (major sources, density dependence, seasonal concordance), and the movements of wintering populations.

Declining incidence of candidemia and the shifting epidemiology of Candida resistance in two US metropolitan areas, 2008-2013: results from population-based surveillance.

PubMed

Cleveland, Angela Ahlquist; Harrison, Lee H; Farley, Monica M; Hollick, Rosemary; Stein, Betsy; Chiller, Tom M; Lockhart, Shawn R; Park, Benjamin J

2015-01-01

Recent reports have demonstrated a decline in bacterial bloodstream infections (BSIs) following adherence to central line insertion practices; however, declines have been less evident for BSIs due to Candida species. We conducted active, population-based laboratory surveillance for candidemia in metropolitan Atlanta, GA and Baltimore, MD over a 5-year period. We calculated annual candidemia incidence and antifungal drug resistance rates. We identified 3,848 candidemia cases from 2008-2013. Compared with 2008, candidemia incidence per 100,000 person-years decreased significantly by 2013 in both locations (GA: 14.1 to 9.5, p<0.001; MD: 30.9 to 14.4, p<0.001). A total of 3,255 cases (85%) had a central venous catheter (CVC) in place within 2 days before the BSI culture date. In both locations, the number of CVC-associated cases declined (GA: 473 to 294; MD: 384 to 151). Candida albicans (CA, 36%) and Candida glabrata (CG, 27%) were the most common species recovered. In both locations, the proportion of cases with fluconazole resistance decreased (GA: 8.0% to 7.1%, -10%; MD: 6.6% to 4.9%, -25%), while the proportion of cases with an isolate resistant to an echinocandin increased (GA: 1.2% to 2.9%, +147%; MD: 2.0% to 3.5%, +77%). Most (74%) echinocandin-resistant isolates were CG; 17 (<1%) isolates were resistant to both drug categories (multidrug resistant [MDR], 16/17 were CG). The proportion of CG cases with MDR Candida increased from 1.8% to 2.6%. We observed a significant decline in the incidence of candidemia over a five-year period, and increases in echinocandin-resistant and MDR Candida. Efforts to strengthen infection control practices may be preventing candidemia among high-risk patients. Further surveillance for resistant Candida is warranted.

Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Palmer, Brent D

2013-08-01

Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort and may facilitate population declines of amphibians and perhaps other ectothermic vertebrates. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evolution of China's family planning policy and fertility transition.

PubMed

Lin, F

1998-06-01

This article points out the important role of family planning (FP) in controlling population growth in China. The impact of development on fertility decline is much slower. China's current FP policy promotes deferred marriage and deferred childbearing and fewer, but healthier, births. The policy promotes one child per couple. Rural couples in certain circumstances, such as if the first birth is a girl, are allowed to have a second child that is properly spaced. FP should be promoted in ethnic inhabited areas. Under this policy, fertility declined from 2.59 to 2 children/woman during the period 1987-92. In more developed areas, fertility has declined below replacement level to 1.6. FP was first promoted in the National Program for Agricultural Development in the 1950s. Birth control was promoted in densely populated areas without high minority concentrations. Fertility hovered around 6.1 during 1950-57. The Cultural Revolution halted fertility decline. The 1974 FP policy emphasized deferred marriage and deferred childbearing, and spaced (by 4-5 years) but fewer births. Fertility declined from 4.2 to 2.3 during 1974-80, in response to the government directive. Rural population declined from 4.6 to 2.5, and urban population declined from 2.0 to 1.15. The one-child policy was promoted in 1980 and became official state policy. FP became an obligation to the state. Rural areas were less compliant with the one-child policy, which led to the 1984 allowances for a second child.

Determinants of poor cognitive function using A-IQCODE among Lebanese older adults: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R; Khamis, Assem M; Chaaya, Monique

2018-06-01

Dementia characterized by gradual cognitive decline is an increasing public health problem due to population ageing. This study aims at assessing the prevalence and determinants of cognitive decline among Lebanese older adults. Secondary analysis of data from a cross-sectional sample of 502 elders from two Lebanese governorates was conducted. Cognitive decline was assessed using the Arabic Version of 16-item Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline for the older adults (A-IQCODE 16). A multivariable logistic regression model assessed the associations of socio-demographic, clinical and behavioral factors with the presence of cognitive decline. Almost one of six Lebanese older adults (14.8%) scored below 3.34. Higher odds of cognitive decline were associated with higher age, being female, having heart disease and suffering from depression. Pack-years of cigarette smoking showed a protective effect and this relationship seems to be only statistically significant among older adults aged more than 75 years. Screening programs of cardiovascular risk factors and early detection of depression are 'best buy' public health interventions that could prevent cognitive decline among Lebanese older adults. Differential survival bias seems the reasonable explanation for the protective effect of smoking that is not the common finding from the literature.

The Dilemma of Decline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramowitz, Susan

This paper, one of two related documents, examines the impact of declining enrollments on educational expenditures. It highlights population and social changes that have contributed to the decline and discusses the general financing of schools. Finally, the paper discusses strategies state policymakers can use to manage decline, including…

Bumblebee pupae contain high levels of aluminium.

PubMed

Exley, Christopher; Rotheray, Ellen; Goulson, David

2015-01-01

The causes of declines in bees and other pollinators remains an on-going debate. While recent attention has focussed upon pesticides, other environmental pollutants have largely been ignored. Aluminium is the most significant environmental contaminant of recent times and we speculated that it could be a factor in pollinator decline. Herein we have measured the content of aluminium in bumblebee pupae taken from naturally foraging colonies in the UK. Individual pupae were acid-digested in a microwave oven and their aluminium content determined using transversely heated graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Pupae were heavily contaminated with aluminium giving values between 13.4 and 193.4 μg/g dry wt. and a mean (SD) value of 51.0 (33.0) μg/g dry wt. for the 72 pupae tested. Mean aluminium content was shown to be a significant negative predictor of average pupal weight in colonies. While no other statistically significant relationships were found relating aluminium to bee or colony health, the actual content of aluminium in pupae are extremely high and demonstrate significant exposure to aluminium. Bees rely heavily on cognitive function and aluminium is a known neurotoxin with links, for example, to Alzheimer's disease in humans. The significant contamination of bumblebee pupae by aluminium raises the intriguing spectre of cognitive dysfunction playing a role in their population decline.

Bumblebee Pupae Contain High Levels of Aluminium

PubMed Central

Exley, Christopher; Rotheray, Ellen; Goulson, David

2015-01-01

The causes of declines in bees and other pollinators remains an on-going debate. While recent attention has focussed upon pesticides, other environmental pollutants have largely been ignored. Aluminium is the most significant environmental contaminant of recent times and we speculated that it could be a factor in pollinator decline. Herein we have measured the content of aluminium in bumblebee pupae taken from naturally foraging colonies in the UK. Individual pupae were acid-digested in a microwave oven and their aluminium content determined using transversely heated graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Pupae were heavily contaminated with aluminium giving values between 13.4 and 193.4 μg/g dry wt. and a mean (SD) value of 51.0 (33.0) μg/g dry wt. for the 72 pupae tested. Mean aluminium content was shown to be a significant negative predictor of average pupal weight in colonies. While no other statistically significant relationships were found relating aluminium to bee or colony health, the actual content of aluminium in pupae are extremely high and demonstrate significant exposure to aluminium. Bees rely heavily on cognitive function and aluminium is a known neurotoxin with links, for example, to Alzheimer’s disease in humans. The significant contamination of bumblebee pupae by aluminium raises the intriguing spectre of cognitive dysfunction playing a role in their population decline. PMID:26042788

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

EPA Science Inventory

Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

Agrarian Visions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theobald, Paul

A new feature in "Country Teacher,""Agrarian Visions" reminds rural teachers that they can do something about rural decline. Like to populism of the 1890s, the "new populism" advocates rural living. Current attempts to address rural decline are contrary to agrarianism because: (1) telecommunications experts seek to…

Asian American Education and Income Attainment in the Era of Post-Racial America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Covarrubias, Alejandro; Liou, Daniel D.

2014-01-01

Background: Prevailing perceptions of Asian Americans as model minorities have long situated this population within postracial discourse, an assumption that highlights their educational success as evidence of the declining significance of race and racism, placing them as models of success for other people of color. Despite evidence to repudiate…

Trends in Birth Rates: New York City 1970-1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkel, Madelon L.; Elkin, Elena

2001-01-01

Examined teen birth rates in New York City health districts over 25 years, noting ethnic variations. Data from Department of Health vital statistics indicated that the decline in the birth rate among New York City teens was most significant in health districts populated predominantly by blacks. There were substantial decreases among older teens…

The Fifties Revival.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kodz, J.; Kersley, B.; Bates, P.

By 2011, 53 percent of the total population in Great Britain will be aged over 45; however, in recent years the proportion of labor market participants over 50 has declined significantly. Older workers have access to fewer training and development opportunities at work but are less likely to take short-term sickness absence and more likely to be…

Children's Perceptions of Sharks and Understanding of Its Ecological Significance for Educational Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsoi, Kwok Ho

2011-01-01

Global shark populations are seriously declining and many species are now threatened by anthropogenic stresses. Their extinction would cause devastating consequences to the marine biodiversity and ecosystems. However some children describe the sharks as bad guys, "we should kill them all!" Such children's view motivates my study…

Response of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) proteome to Israeli acute paralysis virus infection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent declines in honey bee populations worldwide have spurred significant research into the impact of pathogens on colony health. The role of the Israeli Acute Paralysis Virus (IAPV)on hive mortality has become of particular concern since being correlated with colony losses, although the pathogeni...

Salmon and the Adaptive Capacity of Nimiipuu (Nez Perce) Culture to Cope with Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colombi, Benedict J.

2012-01-01

Change due to natural disturbances and disasters, population growth and decline, economic crises, and environmental and climate change creates significant cultural challenges. Rapid change and the transformation it brings also involve complex relationships between sovereign tribes, resources, and the global system. This article explores how salmon…

Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: Causal connection or spurious correlation?

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Eric C. Lofroth; Jeffrey P. Copeland; Keith B. Aubry; Audrey J. Magoun

2010-01-01

The recent paper by Brodie and Post ("Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack", Popul Ecol 52:279-287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine's (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data...

Modeling Louisiana pine snake (Pituophis ruthveni) habitat use in relation to soils

Treesearch

Robert O. Wagner; Josh B. Pierce; D. Craig Rudolph; Richard R. Schaefer; Dwayne A. Hightower

2014-01-01

Ongoing surveys suggest that Pituophis ruthveni (Louisiana Pine Snake) has declined range-wide and that known extant populations have continued to decline. Seven known populations remain and occupy small, isolated blocks of habitat. Population sizes are unknown, but all of them are believed to be critically small. Management for the species’ recovery requires an...

Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

Treesearch

Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

2015-01-01

We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

The effects of predator exclusion and food supplementation on Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) population change in Saskatchewan

Treesearch

Troy I. Wellicome; Geoffrey L. Holroyd; Karyn Scalise; Earl R. Wiltse

1997-01-01

If low reproductive output plays an important role in the population decline of the Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia,) in Canada, we predicted the decline would slow or stop in our study population after consecutive years of productivity enhancement via food supplementation and predator exclusion. In the portion of our study site for which...

Multiple stressor effects in relation to declining amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linder, Greg L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald; Little, E.

2003-01-01

Original research discusses the protocols and approaches to studying the effects of multiple environmental stressors on amphibian populations and gives new perspectives on this complicated subject. This new publication integrates a variety of stressors that can act in concert and may ultimately cause a decline in amphibian populations.Sixteen peer-reviewed papers cover:Toxicity Assessment examines methods, which range from long-established laboratory approaches for evaluating adverse chemical effects to amphibians, to methods that link chemicals in surface waters, sediments, and soils with adverse effects observed among amphibians in the field.Field and Laboratory Studies illustrates studies in the evaluation of multiple stressor effects that may lead to declining amphibian populations. A range of laboratory and field studies of chemicals, such as herbicides, insecticides, chlorinated organic compounds, metals, and complex mixtures are also included.Causal Analysis demonstrates the range of tools currently available for evaluating "cause-effect" relationships between environmental stressors and declining amphibian populations.Audience: This new publication is a must-have for scientists and resource management professionals from diverse fields, including ecotoxicology, chemistry, ecology, field biology, conservation biology, and natural resource management.

Yellow fever: ecology, epidemiology, and role in the collapse of the Classic lowland Maya civilization.

PubMed

Wilkinson, R L

1995-07-01

Mystery has long surrounded the collapse of the Classic lowland Mayan civilization of the Peten region in Guatemala. Recent population reconstructions derived from archaeological evidence from the central lowlands show population declines from urban levels of between 2.5 and 3.5 million to around 536,000 in the two hundred year interval between 800 A.D. and 1000 A.D., the period known as the Classic Maya Collapse. A steady, but lesser rate of population decline continued until the time of European contact. When knowledge of the ecology and epidemiology of yellow fever and its known mosquito vectors are compared with what is known of the ecological conditions of lowland Guatemala as modified by the Classic Maya, provocative similarities are observed. When infection and mortality patterns of more recent urban yellow fever epidemics are used as models for a possible series of Classic Maya epidemics, a correlation is noted between the modeled rate of population decline for a series of epidemics, and population decline figures reconstructed from archaeological evidence.

Cessation of a salmon decline with control of parasites.

PubMed

Peacock, Stephanie J; Krkosek, Martin; Proboszcz, Stan; Orr, Craig; Lewis, Mark A

2013-04-01

The resilience of coastal social-ecological systems may depend on adaptive responses to aquaculture disease outbreaks that can threaten wild and farm fish. A nine-year study of parasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) from Pacific Canada indicates that adaptive changes in parasite management on salmon farms have yielded positive conservation outcomes. After four years of sea lice epizootics and wild salmon population decline, parasiticide application on salmon farms was adapted to the timing of wild salmon migrations. Winter treatment of farm fish with parasiticides, prior to the out-migration of wild juvenile salmon, has reduced epizootics of wild salmon without significantly increasing the annual number of treatments. Levels of parasites on wild juvenile salmon significantly influence the growth rate of affected salmon populations, suggesting that these changes in management have had positive outcomes for wild salmon populations. These adaptive changes have not occurred through formal adaptive management, but rather, through multi-stakeholder processes arising from a contentious scientific and public debate. Despite the apparent success of parasite control on salmon farms in the study region, there remain concerns about the long-term sustainability of this approach because of the unknown ecological effects of parasticides and the potential for parasite resistance to chemical treatments.

Essential oils in the management of the donkey louse, Bovicola ocellatus.

PubMed

Ellse, L; Sands, B; Burden, F A; Wall, R

2016-05-01

Chewing lice are widespread and clinically compromising parasites of livestock and equids. Their management is complicated by growing levels of resistance to commonly applied insecticides. Hence, the development of novel approaches to their control is of major clinical interest. To assess the effects of incorporating the essential oils of tea tree and lavender into a grooming programme for populations of donkeys with natural infestations of Bovicola ocellatus in the UK and Ireland when louse populations were at their winter seasonal peak. In vivo field trial. Suspensions of 5% (v/v) tea tree or lavender oil or an excipient only control were groomed into the coats of winter-housed donkeys (n = 198) on 2 occasions, 2 weeks apart. Louse counts were conducted before each application and 2 weeks later. After 2 applications, the groups groomed with lavender or tea tree oil suspensions had a significant reduction in louse intensity, with a mean decline in louse abundance of 78% (95% confidence interval 76-80%). Louse numbers in the groups groomed with excipient only either did not change or increased significantly. Donkey hair length had no effect on the decline in louse numbers. These results demonstrate that the inclusion of essential oil suspensions during grooming can be used to manage louse populations successfully. © 2015 EVJ Ltd.

Early signs of recovery of Acropora palmata in St. John, US Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muller, E.M.; Rogers, Caroline S.; van Woesik, R.

2014-01-01

Since the 1980s, diseases have caused significant declines in the population of the threatened Caribbean coral Acropora palmata. Yet it is largely unknown whether the population densities have recovered from these declines and whether there have been any recent shifts in size-frequency distributions toward large colonies. It is also unknown whether colony size influences the risk of disease infection, the most common stressor affecting this species. To address these unknowns, we examined A. palmata colonies at ten sites around St. John, US Virgin Islands, in 2004 and 2010. The prevalence of white-pox disease was highly variable among sites, ranging from 0 to 53 %, and this disease preferentially targeted large colonies. We found that colony density did not significantly change over the 6-year period, although six out of ten sites showed higher densities through time. The size-frequency distributions of coral colonies at all sites were positively skewed in both 2004 and 2010, however, most sites showed a temporal shift toward more large-sized colonies. This increase in large-sized colonies occurred despite the presence of white-pox disease, a severe bleaching event, and several storms. This study provides evidence of slow recovery of the A. palmata population around St. John despite the persistence of several stressors.

Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence

PubMed Central

Galor, Oded; Mountford, Andrew

2013-01-01

This research argues that the differential effect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment in education and growth in income per capita, whereas a significant portion of these gains in less developed economies have been channeled towards population growth. Cross-country regressions establish that indeed trade has positive effects on fertility and negative effects on education in non-OECD economies, while inducing fertility decline and human capital formation in OECD economies. PMID:25089061

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

PubMed

Robinson, Hugh S; Wielgus, Robert B; Cooley, Hilary S; Cooley, Skye W

2008-06-01

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.

Hepatic drug acetylation and oxidation: effects of aging in man.

PubMed Central

Farah, F; Taylor, W; Rawlins, M D; James, O

1977-01-01

The half lives of acetanilide and isoniazid ("model" substrates for oxidation and acetylation respectively) were measured in populations of young (aged 20-35 years) and elderly (aged over 65 years) people. Whereas acetanilide half lives were significantly longer in the elderly, isoniazid half lives were distributed similarly in both populations. The results suggest that liver function does not decline uniformly with age and that heterozygotes for acetylation do not possess survival advantages during their middle years of life. PMID:871823

Associations between quality of life and marital status in cancer patients and survivors.

PubMed

Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Sun Jung; Song, Haiyan; Chun, Sung-Youn; Kim, Chan Ok; Kim, Jung-Soo; Park, Eun-Cheol

2014-01-01

The cancer survival rate in Korea has substantially increased, necessitating the management of not only patients with cancer but also longer term survivors. Although the divorce rate has drastically increased in Korea, there is not sufficient research regarding the relationship between changes in marital status and quality of life (QOL) in cancer patients and survivors. Thus, we aimed to examine the relationship between marital status and QOL in such cases. This study was performed using the Community Health Survey of 2008 administered by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (N=169,328). We used t-tests and Chi-square tests to compare demographic variables between men and women, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) to compare QOL scores among comparison groups. We also performed a multilevel analysis on the relationship between QOL and marital status while accounting for provincial differences. Decline of EuroQOL five dimensions (EQ-5D) in single patients with cancer was greater than in any other marital status group, but there was no statistically significant decline in survivors of cancer with regard to marital status. In the general population, the decline of EQ-5D was higher among single people than married people. Using the EuroQOL visual analog scale (EQ-VAS), single people had higher values than those of other marital status among both patients with cancer and survivors of cancer. In the general population, EQ-VAS values were higher for single people compared to married people. There may be a significant relationship between marital status and QOL in cancer patients and survivors. Policy interventions to manage patients with cancer who experience a decline in QOL as well as marital problems should be conducted.

Secular trends in the incidence of and risk factors for ischemic stroke and its subtypes in Japanese population.

PubMed

Kubo, Michiaki; Hata, Jun; Doi, Yasufumi; Tanizaki, Yumihiro; Iida, Mitsuo; Kiyohara, Yutaka

2008-12-16

The study of long-term trends in the incidence of and risk factors for ischemic stroke subtypes could offer insights into primary and secondary prevention. We established 3 cohorts of residents >/=40 years of age in 1961, 1974, and 1988 in the Japanese community of Hisayama. Morphological examinations by autopsy or brain imaging were performed on most of the ischemic stroke cases developed in these cohorts. When 13-year follow-up data were compared, the age-adjusted incidence of ischemic stroke and lacunar infarction declined significantly from the first to the third cohort for both sexes, whereas the incidences of atherothrombotic and cardioembolic infarction did not change during this period. Hypertension was a powerful risk factor for the development of ischemic stroke, and improvement of hypertension control would have largely influenced this declining trend: The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of hypertension decreased from 3.25 (95% CI 2.17 to 4.86) in the first cohort to 1.83 (1.29 to 2.58) in the third cohort. A rapid increase in the prevalence of metabolic disorders may have offset the impact of improvements in hypertension control and resulted in a slowdown of the decline in the incidence of ischemic stroke in the cohorts in the present study; however, hypertension still makes a large contribution to the development of ischemic stroke. These findings suggest that in the Japanese population, the incidence of ischemic stroke has declined significantly over the past 40 years, probably owing to better management of hypertension. There is a need for greater primary prevention efforts in the treatment of hypertension and metabolic disorders.

Role of physical activity in reducing cognitive decline in older Mexican-American adults.

PubMed

Ottenbacher, Allison J; Snih, Soham Al; Bindawas, Saad M; Markides, Kyriakos S; Graham, James E; Samper-Ternent, Rafael; Raji, Mukaila; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J

2014-09-01

The effect of physical activity on cognitive function in older adults from minority and disadvantaged populations is not well understood. This study examined the longitudinal association between physical activity and cognition in older Mexican Americans. The study methodology included a prospective cohort with longitudinal analysis of data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly. General linear mixed models were used to assess the associations and interactions between physical activity and cognitive function over 14 years. Community-based assessments were performed in participants' homes. Physical activity was recorded for 1,669 older Mexican Americans using the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly. Cognition was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and separated into memory and nonmemory components. A statistically significant positive association was observed between levels of physical activity and cognitive function after adjusting for age, sex, marital status, education, and comorbid health conditions. There was a statistically significant difference in MMSE scores over time between participants in the third (β = 0.11, standard error (SE) = 0.05) and fourth (β = 0.10, SE = 0.2) quartiles of physical activity and those in the first. The protective effect of physical activity on cognitive decline was evident for the memory component of the MMSE but not the nonmemory component after adjusting for covariates. Greater physical activity at baseline was associated with less cognitive decline over 14 years in older Mexican Americans. The reduction in cognitive decline appeared to be related to the memory components of cognitive function. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Population genetic structure of the African elephant in Uganda based on variation at mitochondrial and nuclear loci: evidence for male-biased gene flow.

PubMed

Nyakaana, S; Arctander, P

1999-07-01

A drastic decline has occurred in the size of the Uganda elephant population in the last 40 years, exacerbated by two main factors; an increase in the size of the human population and poaching for ivory. One of the attendant consequences of such a decline is a reduction in the amount of genetic diversity in the surviving populations due to increased effects of random genetic drift. Information about the amount of genetic variation within and between the remaining populations is vital for their future conservation and management. The genetic structure of the African elephant in Uganda was examined using nucleotide variation of mitochondrial control region sequences and four nuclear microsatellite loci in 72 individuals from three localities. Eleven mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes were observed, nine of which were geographically localized. We found significant genetic differentiation between the three populations at the mitochondrial locus while three out of the four microsatellite loci differentiated KV and QE, one locus differentiated KV and MF and no loci differentiated MF and QE. Expected heterozygosity at the four loci varied between 0.51 and 0.84 while nucleotide diversity at the mitochondrial locus was 1.4%. Incongruent patterns of genetic variation within and between populations were revealed by the two genetic systems, and we have explained these in terms of the differences in the effective population sizes of the two genomes and male-biased gene flow between populations.

Demographic loss, genetic structure and the conservation implications for Indian tigers.

PubMed

Mondol, Samrat; Bruford, Michael W; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-07-07

India is home to approximately 60 per cent of the world's remaining wild tigers, a species that has declined in the last few centuries to occupy less than 7 per cent of its former geographical range. While Indian tiger numbers have somewhat stabilized in recent years, they remain low and populations are highly fragmented. Therefore, the application of evidence-based demographic and genetic management to enhance the remaining populations is a priority. In this context, and using genetic data from historical and modern tigers, we investigated anthropogenic impacts on genetic variation in Indian tigers using mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers. We found a very high number of historical mitochondrial DNA variants, 93 per cent of which are not detected in modern populations. Population differentiation was higher in modern tigers. Simulations incorporating historical data support population decline, and suggest high population structure in extant populations. Decreased connectivity and habitat loss as a result of ongoing fragmentation in the Indian subcontinent has therefore resulted in a loss of genetic variants and increased genetic differentiation among tiger populations. These results highlight that anthropogenic fragmentation and species-specific demographic processes can interact to alter the partitioning of genetic variation over very short time scales. We conclude that ongoing strategies to maximize the size of some tiger populations, at the expense of losing others, is an inadequate conservation strategy, as it could result in a loss of genetic diversity that may be of adaptive significance for this emblematic species.

Demographic loss, genetic structure and the conservation implications for Indian tigers

PubMed Central

Mondol, Samrat; Bruford, Michael W.; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

India is home to approximately 60 per cent of the world's remaining wild tigers, a species that has declined in the last few centuries to occupy less than 7 per cent of its former geographical range. While Indian tiger numbers have somewhat stabilized in recent years, they remain low and populations are highly fragmented. Therefore, the application of evidence-based demographic and genetic management to enhance the remaining populations is a priority. In this context, and using genetic data from historical and modern tigers, we investigated anthropogenic impacts on genetic variation in Indian tigers using mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers. We found a very high number of historical mitochondrial DNA variants, 93 per cent of which are not detected in modern populations. Population differentiation was higher in modern tigers. Simulations incorporating historical data support population decline, and suggest high population structure in extant populations. Decreased connectivity and habitat loss as a result of ongoing fragmentation in the Indian subcontinent has therefore resulted in a loss of genetic variants and increased genetic differentiation among tiger populations. These results highlight that anthropogenic fragmentation and species-specific demographic processes can interact to alter the partitioning of genetic variation over very short time scales. We conclude that ongoing strategies to maximize the size of some tiger populations, at the expense of losing others, is an inadequate conservation strategy, as it could result in a loss of genetic diversity that may be of adaptive significance for this emblematic species. PMID:23677341

Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits.

PubMed

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S; Gibbs, Jason; Danforth, Bryan N; Wagner, David L; Hedtke, Shannon M; Winfree, Rachael

2013-03-19

Pollinators such as bees are essential to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, despite concerns about a global pollinator crisis, long-term data on the status of bee species are limited. We present a long-term study of relative rates of change for an entire regional bee fauna in the northeastern United States, based on >30,000 museum records representing 438 species. Over a 140-y period, aggregate native species richness weakly decreased, but richness declines were significant only for the genus Bombus. Of 187 native species analyzed individually, only three declined steeply, all of these in the genus Bombus. However, there were large shifts in community composition, as indicated by 56% of species showing significant changes in relative abundance over time. Traits associated with a declining relative abundance include small dietary and phenological breadth and large body size. In addition, species with lower latitudinal range boundaries are increasing in relative abundance, a finding that may represent a response to climate change. We show that despite marked increases in human population density and large changes in anthropogenic land use, aggregate native species richness declines were modest outside of the genus Bombus. At the same time, we find that certain ecological traits are associated with declines in relative abundance. These results should help target conservation efforts focused on maintaining native bee abundance and diversity and therefore the important ecosystems services that they provide.

Biomarkers for cognitive decline in patients with diabetes mellitus: evidence from clinical studies

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xue; Han, Qing; Lv, You; Sun, Lin; Gang, Xiaokun; Wang, Guixia

2018-01-01

Diabetes mellitus is considered as an important factor for cognitive decline and dementia in recent years. However, cognitive impairment in diabetic patients is often underestimated and kept undiagnosed, leading to thousands of diabetic patients suffering from worsening memory. Available reviews in this field were limited and not comprehensive enough. Thus, the present review aimed to summarize all available clinical studies on diabetic patients with cognitive decline, and to find valuable biomarkers that might be applied as diagnostic and therapeutic targets of cognitive impairment in diabetes. The biomarkers or risk factors of cognitive decline in diabetic patients could be classified into the following three aspects: serum molecules or relevant complications, functional or metabolic changes by neuroimaging tools, and genetic variants. Specifically, factors related to poor glucose metabolism, insulin resistance, inflammation, comorbid depression, micro-/macrovascular complications, adipokines, neurotrophic molecules and Tau protein presented significant changes in diabetic patients with cognitive decline. Besides, neuroimaging platform could provide more clues on the structural, functional and metabolic changes during the cognitive decline progression of diabetic patients. Genetic factors related to cognitive decline showed inconsistency based on the limited studies. Future studies might apply above biomarkers as diagnostic and treatment targets in a large population, and regulation of these parameters might shed light on a more valuable, sensitive and specific strategy for the diagnosis and treatment of cognitive decline in diabetic patients. PMID:29484146

Assessing the Decrease in the Surgical Population of the University of Puerto Rico-Affiliated Hospitals.

PubMed

Cruz, Norma I; Santiago, Elvis; Luque, César

2017-12-01

To evaluate the magnitude of the decrease in the surgical population of the University of Puerto Rico (UPR)-affiliated hospitals. We examined all the surgical cases that were entered into the Surgical Database from January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2015. This database collects patient and procedural information from the surgical services of the UPR-affiliated hospitals. Thus, the number of surgical patients for the 3-year study period was determined and their characteristics recorded. The group was subdivided into 3 subgroups, according to year: 2013, 2014, and 2015. All the variables studied were tabulated for the 3 subgroups and the values compared. The differences between subgroups were evaluated using the chi2 test or ANOVA, whichever was appropriate, with a p-value of less than 0.05 being considered significant. During the 3-year period, the Surgical Database collected information on 14,626 cases. The mean age of the group was 48 (±23) years. The gender distribution indicated that 55% of the sample members were women and 45% were men. A 14% decline in the number of surgical cases occurred from 2013 through 2015. The changes were not limited to a decline in numbers; the patients were sicker, as evidenced by a statistically significant (p<0.05) increase in the number of patients who presented with an American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) physical status classification of 3 or higher. A moderately steady decline in the number of surgical cases at the UPR-affiliated hospitals was noted. We believe multiple factors are responsible for this trend, such as a decreasing population and the current economic and healthcare crises occurring in Puerto Rico.

Use of Interrupted Time-Series Method to Evaluate the Impact of Cigarette Excise Tax Increases in Pennsylvania, 2000–2009

PubMed Central

Kuller, Lewis H.; Fisher, Monica A.; Ostroff, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

Introduction Scientific evidence shows that cigarette price increases can significantly reduce smoking prevalence and smoking initiation among adolescents and young adults. However, data are lacking regarding the effectiveness of increasing Pennsylvania’s cigarette tax to reduce smoking and/or adverse health effects of smoking. The objective of our study was to assess the impact of cigarette tax increases and resulting price increases on smoking prevalence, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and asthma hospitalization rates, and sudden cardiac death (SCD) rates in Pennsylvania. Methods We used segmented regression analyses of interrupted time series to evaluate the level and trend changes in Pennsylvania adults’ current smoking prevalence, age-adjusted AMI and asthma hospitalization rates, age-specific asthma hospitalization rates, and age-adjusted SCD rates following 2 cigarette excise tax increases. Results After the first excise tax increase, no beneficial effects were noted on the outcomes of interest. The second tax increase was associated with significant declines in smoking prevalence for people aged 18 to 39, age-adjusted AMI hospitalization rates for men, age-adjusted asthma hospitalizations rates, and SCD rates among men. Overall smoking prevalence declined by 5.2% (P = .01), with a quarterly decrease of 1.4% (P = .01) for people aged 18 to 39 years. The age-adjusted AMI hospitalization rate for men showed a decline of 3.87/100,000 population (P = .04). The rate of age-adjusted asthma hospitalizations decreased by 10.05/100,000 population (P < .001), and the quarterly trend decreased by 3.21/100,000 population (P < .001). Quarterly SCD rates for men decreased by 1.34/100,000 population (P < .001). Conclusion An increase in the price of cigarettes to more than $4 per 20-cigarette pack was associated with a significant decrease in smoking among younger people (aged 18–39). Decreases were also seen in asthma hospitalizations and men’s age-adjusted AMI hospitalization and SCD rates. Further research and policy development regarding the effect of cigarette taxes on tobacco consumption should be cognizant of the psychological tipping points at which overall price affects smoking patterns. PMID:24135393

Dynamics and genetics of a disease-driven species decline to near extinction: lessons for conservation

PubMed Central

Hudson, M. A.; Young, R. P.; D’Urban Jackson, J.; Orozco-terWengel, P.; Martin, L.; James, A.; Sulton, M.; Garcia, G.; Griffiths, R. A.; Thomas, R.; Magin, C.; Bruford, M. W.; Cunningham, A. A.

2016-01-01

Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity’s targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis. PMID:27485994

Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

PubMed

Banks, Sam C; Lindenmayer, David B; Wood, Jeff T; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D J

2013-01-01

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

Can Individual and Social Patterns of Resource Use Buffer Animal Populations against Resource Decline?

PubMed Central

Banks, Sam C.; Lindenmayer, David B.; Wood, Jeff T.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D. J.

2013-01-01

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater’s possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1∶1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species’ biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance. PMID:23320100

Generalized Linear Models of Home Activity for Automatic Detection of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults*

PubMed Central

Akl, Ahmad; Snoek, Jasper; Mihailidis, Alex

2015-01-01

With a globally aging population, the burden of care of cognitively impaired older adults is becoming increasingly concerning. Instances of Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia are becoming ever more frequent. Earlier detection of cognitive impairment offers significant benefits, but remains difficult to do in practice. In this paper, we develop statistical models of the behavior of older adults within their homes using sensor data in order to detect the early onset of cognitive decline. Specifically, we use inhomogenous Poisson processes to model the presence of subjects within different rooms throughout the day in the home using unobtrusive sensing technologies. We compare the distributions learned from cognitively intact and impaired subjects using information theoretic tools and observe statistical differences between the two populations which we believe can be used to help detect the onset of cognitive decline. PMID:25570050

Generalized Linear Models of home activity for automatic detection of mild cognitive impairment in older adults.

PubMed

Akl, Ahmad; Snoek, Jasper; Mihailidis, Alex

2014-01-01

With a globally aging population, the burden of care of cognitively impaired older adults is becoming increasingly concerning. Instances of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia are becoming ever more frequent. Earlier detection of cognitive impairment offers significant benefits, but remains difficult to do in practice. In this paper, we develop statistical models of the behavior of older adults within their homes using sensor data in order to detect the early onset of cognitive decline. Specifically, we use inhomogenous Poisson processes to model the presence of subjects within different rooms throughout the day in the home using unobtrusive sensing technologies. We compare the distributions learned from cognitively intact and impaired subjects using information theoretic tools and observe statistical differences between the two populations which we believe can be used to help detect the onset of cognitive decline.

HIGHER PARENTAL PERCEPTIONS OF WEALTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE BIRTH OF MORE SONS IN AN AUSTRALIAN POPULATION.

PubMed

Behie, A M; O'Donnell, M H

2017-09-20

Many industrialized nations are currently experiencing a decline in average secondary sex ratio (SSR) resulting in fewer boys being born relative to girls. While many potential factors may explain the decline in the birth of males relative to females, it seems most studies support the idea that male offspring are produced less often when environmental conditions are poor owing to males being more susceptible to loss in harsh environments. This study investigates the maternal factors that are associated with the sex of offspring in a cohort of the Australian population. It found that greater parental perceptions of wealth were significantly associated with an increase in the number of sons produced. These results suggest that male offspring are born at increased numbers to women with higher available resources, which may reflect the fact that male offspring are more vulnerable in poor environments.

Proximate determinants of fertility in peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Tey, Nai Peng; Ng, Sor Tho; Yew, Siew Yong

2012-05-01

The continuing decline in fertility despite a contraction in contraceptive use in Peninsular Malaysia since the mid-1980s has triggered considerable interest in the reasons behind this phenomenon, such as increase in abortion, sterility, and out-of-wedlock pregnancy. Fertility decline has been attributed to rapid socioeconomic development, which can only influence fertility through the intermediate variables. Application of vital statistics, population census, and survey data of Peninsular Malaysia on Bongaarts's model vindicates that marriage postponement and contraceptive use are the 2 most important proximate determinants of fertility, but the effects are not uniform across the ethnic groups. For instance, the predicted total fertility rate for Chinese and Malays are 2.9 and 1.6, respectively, compared with the observed level of 3.0 and 1.9. Postpartum infecundability and abortion also play a part in explaining ethnic fertility differentials. The fertility inhibiting effects of these proximate determinants have significant implications on reproductive health and future population growth.

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

PubMed

Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

2018-01-22

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

PubMed

Chaabna, Karima; Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries' population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990-2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001-0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5-14 and 15-49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as "cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases" and "HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis". Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries' population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement.

Genetic Diversity and Structure Analysis of Percocypris pingi (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae): Implications for Conservation and Hatchery Release in the Yalong River

PubMed Central

Yang, Kun; Gan, Weixiong; Zeng, Rukui; Deng, Longjun; Song, Zhaobin

2016-01-01

Percocypris pingi is a near threatened cyprinid species, which has suffered a dramatic decline due to anthropogenic factors. As one response to this decline, hatchery release for P. pingi has been conducted in the lower reaches of the Yalong River since 2012. To understand the conservation status of this species and the potential impact of the release of hatchery-reared fish, we studied the genetic diversity and population structure of wild and hatchery populations of P. pingi. Two hatchery populations (Jinping [JPH] and Ya’an [YAH]) and two wild populations (Muli [MLW] and Woluo [WLW]) of P. pingi were analyzed based on microsatellite markers and the mitochondrial DNA control region. The results showed that P. pingi possesses moderate levels of genetic diversity, with observed heterozygosities ranging from 0.657 to 0.770 and nucleotide diversities ranging from 0.00212 to 0.00491. Our results also suggested WLW harbors considerable proportions of genetic diversity in this species and serves as a refuge for P. pingi during anthropogenic disturbance, thus playing an important role for the conservation of P. pingi populations. Microsatellite and mitochondrial markers both indicated close genetic relationships between YAH and MLW, JPH and WLW, respectively. The results to some extent reflected the geographical provenances for original broodstocks of the two hatchery populations, which provide some practical guidance for hatchery release of P. pingi. The existence of remarkable genetic divergence distributed along limited geographical range (approximately 10 kilometers) suggests the two wild populations should be regarded at least as two distinct evolutionary significant units (ESUs) and management units (MUs). Considering reduced intra-population genetic variation in hatchery population for release and significant genetic compositions of the two hatchery populations, some appropriate breeding strategies were proposed to benefit conservation of P. pingi. PMID:27911911

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

PubMed Central

Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries’ population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990–2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001–0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5–14 and 15–49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as “cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases” and “HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis”. Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries’ population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement. PMID:28632794

Factors influencing Dipylidium sp. infection in a free-ranging social carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta)☆

PubMed Central

East, Marion L.; Kurze, Christoph; Wilhelm, Kerstin; Benhaiem, Sarah; Hofer, Heribert

2013-01-01

We provide the first genetic sequence data for a Dipylidium species from a wild carnivore plus an analysis of the effects of ecological, demographic, physiological and behavioural factors on Dipylidium sp. infection prevalence in a social carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Our sequence data from a mitochondrial gene fragment (1176 base pair long) had a similarity of between 99% and 89% to Dipylidium caninum. We determined infection prevalence in 146 faecal samples from 124 known animals in three social groups (termed clans) using molecular screening and Dipylidium proglottid presence. Our analysis revealed significantly higher infection prevalence in juveniles (55%) than adults (15.8%), indicating that predominantly juveniles maintained infection in clans. The likelihood of infection in juveniles significantly: (1) increased as the number of adults and older juveniles (>6 months) at communal dens increased, implying a positive relationship between this factor and the size of the intermediate host (probably a flea species) population at communal dens; (2) decreased as the number of younger juveniles (<6 months) increased, suggesting that the chance of susceptible juveniles ingesting infected fleas during self-grooming declined as the number of infected fleas per younger juvenile declined; and (3) decreased during periods of low prey abundance in clan territories when an increased reliance on long-distances foraging excursions reduces the number of clan members visiting communal dens, possibly resulting in a decline in flea populations at dens. Long-distance foraging also increases the intervals (in days) between nursing visits by lactating females to their offspring. Lengthy intervals between milk intake by infected juveniles may reduce adult Dipylidium fecundity and hence decrease infection prevalence in the den flea population. Our study provides useful insights into Dipylidium epidemiology in a social carnivore population subject to large fluctuations in prey abundance. PMID:24533344

Factors influencing Dipylidium sp. infection in a free-ranging social carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta).

PubMed

East, Marion L; Kurze, Christoph; Wilhelm, Kerstin; Benhaiem, Sarah; Hofer, Heribert

2013-12-01

We provide the first genetic sequence data for a Dipylidium species from a wild carnivore plus an analysis of the effects of ecological, demographic, physiological and behavioural factors on Dipylidium sp. infection prevalence in a social carnivore, the spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Our sequence data from a mitochondrial gene fragment (1176 base pair long) had a similarity of between 99% and 89% to Dipylidium caninum. We determined infection prevalence in 146 faecal samples from 124 known animals in three social groups (termed clans) using molecular screening and Dipylidium proglottid presence. Our analysis revealed significantly higher infection prevalence in juveniles (55%) than adults (15.8%), indicating that predominantly juveniles maintained infection in clans. The likelihood of infection in juveniles significantly: (1) increased as the number of adults and older juveniles (>6 months) at communal dens increased, implying a positive relationship between this factor and the size of the intermediate host (probably a flea species) population at communal dens; (2) decreased as the number of younger juveniles (<6 months) increased, suggesting that the chance of susceptible juveniles ingesting infected fleas during self-grooming declined as the number of infected fleas per younger juvenile declined; and (3) decreased during periods of low prey abundance in clan territories when an increased reliance on long-distances foraging excursions reduces the number of clan members visiting communal dens, possibly resulting in a decline in flea populations at dens. Long-distance foraging also increases the intervals (in days) between nursing visits by lactating females to their offspring. Lengthy intervals between milk intake by infected juveniles may reduce adult Dipylidium fecundity and hence decrease infection prevalence in the den flea population. Our study provides useful insights into Dipylidium epidemiology in a social carnivore population subject to large fluctuations in prey abundance.

The Beneficial Effects of Cognitive Training With Simple Calculation and Reading Aloud (SCRA) in the Elderly Postoperative Population: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Kulason, Kay; Nouchi, Rui; Hoshikawa, Yasushi; Noda, Masafumi; Okada, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Ryuta

2018-01-01

Background: There has been little research conducted regarding cognitive treatments for the elderly postsurgical population. Patients aged ≥60 years have an increased risk of postoperative cognitive decline, a condition in which cognitive functions are negatively affected. This cognitive decline can lead to a decline in quality of life. In order to maintain a high quality of life, the elderly postsurgical population may benefit from treatment to maintain and/or improve their cognitive functions. This pilot study investigates the effect of simple calculation and reading aloud (SCRA) cognitive training in elderly Japanese postsurgical patients. Methods: Elderly patients undergoing non-cardiovascular thoracic surgery under general anesthesia were recruited ( n = 12). Subjects were randomly divided into two groups-one that receives 12 weeks of SCRA intervention, and a waitlisted control group. Before and after the intervention, we measured cognitive function [Mini-Mental Status Exam-Japanese (MMSE-J), Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), computerized Cogstate Brief Battery (CBB)] and emotional state [General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), Quality of Life Scale-5 (QOL-5)]. Results: Group difference analyses using ANCOVA with permutation test showed that the intervention SCRA group had a significant improvement in FAB motor programming sub-score, GDS, and QOL-5 compared to the control group. Within-group analyses using Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare baseline and follow-up showed that the SCRA intervention group total FAB scores, FAB motor programming sub-scores, and QOL-5 scores were significantly improved. Discussion: This pilot study showed that there are important implications for the beneficial effects of SCRA intervention on cognitive function and emotional state in the postoperative elderly population; however, further investigations are necessary to reach any conclusions. Trial registration: This study was registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network (UMIN) Clinical Trial Registry (UMIN000019832).

The Beneficial Effects of Cognitive Training With Simple Calculation and Reading Aloud (SCRA) in the Elderly Postoperative Population: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Kulason, Kay; Nouchi, Rui; Hoshikawa, Yasushi; Noda, Masafumi; Okada, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Ryuta

2018-01-01

Background: There has been little research conducted regarding cognitive treatments for the elderly postsurgical population. Patients aged ≥60 years have an increased risk of postoperative cognitive decline, a condition in which cognitive functions are negatively affected. This cognitive decline can lead to a decline in quality of life. In order to maintain a high quality of life, the elderly postsurgical population may benefit from treatment to maintain and/or improve their cognitive functions. This pilot study investigates the effect of simple calculation and reading aloud (SCRA) cognitive training in elderly Japanese postsurgical patients. Methods: Elderly patients undergoing non-cardiovascular thoracic surgery under general anesthesia were recruited (n = 12). Subjects were randomly divided into two groups—one that receives 12 weeks of SCRA intervention, and a waitlisted control group. Before and after the intervention, we measured cognitive function [Mini-Mental Status Exam-Japanese (MMSE-J), Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB), computerized Cogstate Brief Battery (CBB)] and emotional state [General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), Quality of Life Scale-5 (QOL-5)]. Results: Group difference analyses using ANCOVA with permutation test showed that the intervention SCRA group had a significant improvement in FAB motor programming sub-score, GDS, and QOL-5 compared to the control group. Within-group analyses using Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare baseline and follow-up showed that the SCRA intervention group total FAB scores, FAB motor programming sub-scores, and QOL-5 scores were significantly improved. Discussion: This pilot study showed that there are important implications for the beneficial effects of SCRA intervention on cognitive function and emotional state in the postoperative elderly population; however, further investigations are necessary to reach any conclusions. Trial registration: This study was registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network (UMIN) Clinical Trial Registry (UMIN000019832). PMID:29643802

The erosion of employment-based insurance: more working families left uninsured.

PubMed

Gould, Elise

2008-01-01

The number of Americans without health insurance rose from 38.4 million in 2000 to 47.0 million in 2006, primarily due to the precipitous decline in employer-provided health coverage for workers and their families. Nearly 3.9 million fewer Americans under 65 had employer-provided coverage in 2006 than in 2000. The downward trend in the rate of employer-provided insurance continued for the sixth year in a row, falling from 68.3 to 62.9 percent. Individuals among the bottom 20 percent of household income were the least likely to have employer coverage. Jobholders experienced a significant decline in health insurance coverage, from 74.8 percent of workers in 2000 to 70.8 percent in 2006. No category of workers was insulated from loss of coverage. Children experienced declines in employer-provided health insurance coverage (through their parents) in each of the past five years, the rate falling from 65.9 percent of children in 2000 to 59.7 percent in 2006. Public health insurance (Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program) is no longer offsetting these losses. The decline in employer-provided coverage was felt throughout the country. Between the 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 periods, 38 states experienced significant losses in employment-based coverage for the under-65 population. No state experienced a significant increase in the coverage rate.

Food-limitation in a generalist predator.

PubMed

Rutz, Christian; Bijlsma, Rob G

2006-08-22

Investigating food-limitation in generalist predators is difficult, because they can switch to alternative prey, when one of their staple prey becomes scarce. Apart from data on the dynamics of the predator population, a robust study requires: (i) a documentation of the predator's entire prey base; and (ii) an experimental or natural situation, where profitable dietary shifts are impossible, because several preferred prey species decline simultaneously. Here, we provide a detailed description of how food-supply has limited a generalist avian top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. In our study area, populations of several principal goshawk prey species crashed simultaneously during 1975-2000, whereas other extrinsic factors remained essentially unchanged. The breeding and non-breeding segments of the local goshawk population declined markedly, associated with a significant increase in nest failures. Brood size of successful pairs remained unaffected by changes in prey availability. Breeding recruitment ceased at a time when potential replacement birds ('floaters') were still present, providing a rare empirical demonstration of an 'acceptance threshold' in raptor territory choice. To investigate how goshawk diet changed in response to varying food-supplies, we make novel use of an analytical tool from biodiversity research-'abundance-biomass-comparison curves' (ABC curves). With increasing levels of food-stress, the dominance of principal prey species in the diet decreased, and the number of small-bodied prey species increased, as did intra-guild predation. Our finding that breeder and non-breeder segments declined in concert is unexpected. Our results carry the management implication that, in food-limited raptor populations, externally induced breeder mortality can rapidly depress population size, as losses are no longer buffered when floaters reject breeding opportunities.

Food-limitation in a generalist predator

PubMed Central

Rutz, Christian; Bijlsma, Rob G

2006-01-01

Investigating food-limitation in generalist predators is difficult, because they can switch to alternative prey, when one of their staple prey becomes scarce. Apart from data on the dynamics of the predator population, a robust study requires: (i) a documentation of the predator's entire prey base; and (ii) an experimental or natural situation, where profitable dietary shifts are impossible, because several preferred prey species decline simultaneously. Here, we provide a detailed description of how food-supply has limited a generalist avian top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. In our study area, populations of several principal goshawk prey species crashed simultaneously during 1975–2000, whereas other extrinsic factors remained essentially unchanged. The breeding and non-breeding segments of the local goshawk population declined markedly, associated with a significant increase in nest failures. Brood size of successful pairs remained unaffected by changes in prey availability. Breeding recruitment ceased at a time when potential replacement birds (‘floaters’) were still present, providing a rare empirical demonstration of an ‘acceptance threshold’ in raptor territory choice. To investigate how goshawk diet changed in response to varying food-supplies, we make novel use of an analytical tool from biodiversity research—‘abundance–biomass–comparison curves’ (ABC curves). With increasing levels of food-stress, the dominance of principal prey species in the diet decreased, and the number of small-bodied prey species increased, as did intra-guild predation. Our finding that breeder and non-breeder segments declined in concert is unexpected. Our results carry the management implication that, in food-limited raptor populations, externally induced breeder mortality can rapidly depress population size, as losses are no longer buffered when floaters reject breeding opportunities. PMID:16846915

Secular trends of chickenpox among military population in Israel in relation to introduction of varicella zoster vaccine 1979–2010

PubMed Central

Mimouni, Daniel; Levine, Hagai; Tzurel Ferber, Anat; Rajuan-Galor, Inbal; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

2013-01-01

Chickenpox is a contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus. There is scarce data on long-term trends of chickenpox and its relation to vaccinations practices. We aimed to evaluate trends of chickenpox in a military population during the period 1979–2010 and to assess temporal associations in relation with the introduction of varicella zoster vaccine to the civilian population in Israel in 2000. The archives of the Epidemiology Section of the Israel Defense Forces, where chickenpox is a notifiable disease, were reviewed for all cases of chickenpox from January 1, 1979–December 31, 2010. Annual and monthly incidence rates were calculated and analyzed in relation to vaccine introduction. Between 1979–2000, incidence rates fluctuated around 10 cases per 10,000 soldiers without a clear trend. Since 2000 there has been a dramatic 10-fold decline in incidence, especially notable since 2008, from eight per 10,000 soldiers in 2000 to the lowest rate ever recorded, in 2009, of 0.57 cases per 10,000 soldiers. A seasonal sinusoidal pattern was clearly demonstrated, with rising incidence from November to May followed by a gradual decline to October. The results of this long-term study suggest that the rates of chickenpox in the military population have significantly declined since the introduction of the vaccine to the civilian population in Israel and almost disappeared completely since 2008 as the vaccine was included in the state-funded routine childhood immunization schedule. These findings underscore the need for a strong surveillance system and will aid in determing vaccination policies. PMID:23412473

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Mapping the Relative Probability of Common Toad Occurrence in Terrestrial Lowland Farm Habitat in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Salazar, Rosie D; Montgomery, Robert A; Thresher, Sarah E; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

The common toad (Bufo bufo) is of increasing conservation concern in the United Kingdom (UK) due to dramatic population declines occurring in the past century. Many of these population declines coincided with reductions in both terrestrial and aquatic habitat availability and quality and have been primarily attributed to the effect of agricultural land conversion (of natural and semi-natural habitats to arable and pasture fields) and pond drainage. However, there is little evidence available to link habitat availability with common toad population declines, especially when examined at a broad landscape scale. Assessing such patterns of population declines at the landscape scale, for instance, require an understanding of how this species uses terrestrial habitat. We intensively studied the terrestrial resource selection of a large population of common toads in Oxfordshire, England, UK. Adult common toads were fitted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to allow detection in the terrestrial environment using a portable PIT antenna once toads left the pond and before going into hibernation (April/May-October 2012 and 2013). We developed a population-level resource selection function (RSF) to assess the relative probability of toad occurrence in the terrestrial environment by collecting location data for 90 recaptured toads. The predicted relative probability of toad occurrence for this population was greatest in wooded habitat near to water bodies; relative probability of occurrence declined dramatically > 50 m from these habitats. Toads also tended to select habitat near to their breeding pond and toad occurrence was negatively related to urban environments.

Do commonly used frailty models predict mortality, loss of autonomy and mental decline in older adults in northwestern Russia? A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Korystina, Elena; Zelenukha, Dmitry; Tadjibaev, Pulodjon; Gurina, Natalia; Turkeshi, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2016-05-09

Frailty prevalence differs across countries depending on the models used to assess it that are based on various conceptual and operational definitions. This study aims to assess the clinical validity of three frailty models among community-dwelling older adults in north-western Russia where there is a higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and lower life expectancy than in European countries. The Crystal study is a population-based prospective cohort study in Kolpino, St. Petersburg, Russia. A random sample of the population living in the district was stratified into two age groups: 65-75 (n = 305) and 75+ (n = 306) and had a baseline comprehensive health assessment followed by a second one after 33.4 +/-3 months. The total observation time was 47 +/-14.6 months. Frailty was assessed according to the models of Fried, Puts and Steverink-Slaets. Its association with mortality at 5 years follow-up as well as dependency, mental and physical decline at around 2.5 years follow up was explored by multivariable and time-to-event analyses. Mortality was predicted independently from age, sex and comorbidities only by the frail status of the Fried model in those over 75 years old [HR (95 % CI) = 2.50 (1.20-5.20)]. Mental decline was independently predicted only by pre-frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.24 (0.10-0.55)] and frail [OR (95 % CI) = 0.196 (0.06-0.67)] status of Fried model in those 65-75 years old. The prediction of dependency and physical decline by pre-frail and frail status of any the three frailty models was not statistically significant in this cohort of older adults. None of the three frailty models was valid at predicting 5 years mortality and disability, mental and physical decline at 2.5 years in a cohort of older adults in north-west Russia. Frailty by the Fried model had only limited value for mortality in those 75 years old and mental decline in those 65-75 years old. Further research is needed to identify valid frailty markers for older adults in this population.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

PubMed

Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

2014-09-01

Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population

PubMed Central

Baril, Donald T.; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B.

2015-01-01

Objective Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. Methods This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Results Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Conclusions Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. PMID:24768362

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Black, Nyesha C; Matthews, Stephen A; James, Sherman A

2017-12-01

This study aims to characterize the role of county-specific legacy of slavery in patterning temporal (i.e., 1968-2014), and geographic (i.e., Southern counties) declines in heart disease mortality. In this context, the U.S. has witnessed dramatic declines in heart disease mortality since the 1960's, which have benefitted place and race groups unevenly, with slower declines in the South, especially for the Black population. Age-adjusted race- and county-specific mortality rates from 1968-2014 for all diseases of the heart were calculated for all Southern U.S. counties. Candidate confounding and mediating covariates from 1860, 1930, and 1970, were combined with mortality data in multivariable regression models to estimate the ecological association between the concentration of slavery in1860 and declines in heart disease mortality from 1968-2014. Black populations, in counties with a history of highest versus lowest concentration of slavery, experienced a 17% slower decline in heart disease mortality. The association for Black populations varied by region (stronger in Deep South than Upper South states) and was partially explained by intervening socioeconomic factors. In models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, there was no association between slave concentration and heart disease mortality decline for Whites. Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations. Graphical abstract.

Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China.

PubMed

Kamp, Johannes; Oppel, Steffen; Ananin, Alexandr A; Durnev, Yurii A; Gashev, Sergey N; Hölzel, Norbert; Mishchenko, Alexandr L; Pessa, Jorma; Smirenski, Sergey M; Strelnikov, Evgenii G; Timonen, Sami; Wolanska, Kolja; Chan, Simba

2015-12-01

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow-breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species' migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long-term monitoring data from across the species' range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3-94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species' range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow-breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial-scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species' populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Urbanization and depopulation in the Alps.

PubMed

Batzing, W; Perlik, M; Dekleva, M

1996-11-01

Demographic developments in the European Alpine region are analyzed over the period 1870-1990. The region is defined as including parts of Germany, France, Italy, Liechtenstein, Austria, Switzerland, and Slovenia. "Studies of growth, stagnation, decline, commune size, and altitude in almost 6,000 communes are presented on three colored maps.... It is apparent that two highly divergent processes are at work and, accordingly, statistical mean values reveal little of importance. Approximately one-half of Alpine Europe is undergoing general economic and demographic growth and has experienced significant increase in population since the end of the agricultural era. This development has taken place primarily in low-lying valleys and basins and in areas bordering the Alps that have good access to transport routes. Tourism is not as widespread as generally assumed and is usually characterized by a punctate pattern. Only in the western part of the Eastern Alps does tourism account for widespread population growth at higher altitudes; elsewhere the Alps have not been affected by modern development and the economy and population are declining, with some areas in danger of becoming completely abandoned. The results challenge the earlier concept of the Alps as a rural region, once populated by peasants, where tourism now plays a major role." (EXCERPT)

Genetic diversity and population structure of Mongolian domestic Bactrian camels (Camelus bactrianus).

PubMed

Chuluunbat, B; Charruau, P; Silbermayr, K; Khorloojav, T; Burger, P A

2014-08-01

The tradition of animal husbandry in the context of a nomadic lifestyle has been of great significance in the Mongolian society. Both Bactrian camels and horses have been invaluable for the survival and development of human activities in the harsh arid environment of the Mongolian steppe. As camels offer unique and sustainable opportunities for livestock production in marginal agro-ecological zones, we investigated the current genetic diversity of three local Mongolian camel breeds and compared their levels of variation with common native Mongolian camels distributed throughout the country. Based on mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we found levels of genetic diversity in Mongolian populations similar to that reported for Chinese Bactrian camels and for dromedaries. Little differentiation was detected between single breeds, except for a small group originating from the northwestern Mongolian Altai. We found neither high inbreeding levels in the different breeds nor evidence for a population decline. Although the Mongolian camel census size has severely declined over the past 20 years, our analyses suggest that there still exists a stable population with adequate genetic variation for continued sustainable utilization. © 2014 The Authors. Animal Genetics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

Clinical pathology and assessment of pathogen exposure in southern and Alaskan sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanni, K.D.; Mazet, J.A.K.; Gulland, F.M.D.; Estes, James A.; Staedler, M.; Murray, M.J.; Miller, M.; Jessup, David A.

2003-01-01

The southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population in California (USA) and the Alaskan sea otter (E. lutris kenyoni) population in the Aleutian Islands (USA) chain have recently declined. In order to evaluate disease as a contributing factor to the declines, health assessments of these two sea otter populations were conducted by evaluating hematologic and/or serum biochemical values and exposure to six marine and terrestrial pathogens using blood collected during ongoing studies from 1995 through 2000. Samples from 72 free-ranging Alaskan, 78 free-ranging southern, and (for pathogen exposure only) 41 debilitated southern sea otters in rehabilitation facilities were evaluated and compared to investigate regional differences. Serum chemistry and hematology values did not indicate a specific disease process as a cause for the declines. Statistically significant differences were found between free-ranging adult southern and Alaskan population mean serum levels of creatinine kinase, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, calcium, cholesterol, creatinine, glucose, phosphorous, total bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen, and sodium. These were likely due to varying parasite loads, contaminant exposures, and physiologic or nutrition statuses. No free-ranging sea otters had signs of disease at capture, and prevalences of exposure to calicivirus, Brucella spp., and Leptospira spp. were low. The high prevalence (35%) of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in free-ranging southern sea otters, lack of antibodies to this parasite in Alaskan sea otters, and the pathogen's propensity to cause mortality in southern sea otters suggests that this parasite may be important to sea otter population dynamics in California but not in Alaska. The evidence for exposure to pathogens of public health importance (e.g., Leptospira spp., T. gondii) in the southern sea otter population, and the naïveté of both populations to other pathogens (e.g., morbillivirus and Coccidiodes immitis) may have important implications for their management and recovery.

Clinical pathology and assessment of pathogen exposure in southern and Alaskan sea otters.

PubMed

Hanni, Krista D; Mazet, Jonna A K; Gulland, Frances M D; Estes, James; Staedler, Michelle; Murray, Michael J; Miller, Melissa; Jessup, David A

2003-10-01

The southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population in California (USA) and the Alaskan sea otter (E. lutris kenyoni) population in the Aleutian Islands (USA) chain have recently declined. In order to evaluate disease as a contributing factor to the declines, health assessments of these two sea otter populations were conducted by evaluating hematologic and/or serum biochemical values and exposure to six marine and terrestrial pathogens using blood collected during ongoing studies from 1995 through 2000. Samples from 72 free-ranging Alaskan, 78 free-ranging southern, and (for pathogen exposure only) 41 debilitated southern sea otters in rehabilitation facilities were evaluated and compared to investigate regional differences. Serum chemistry and hematology values did not indicate a specific disease process as a cause for the declines. Statistically significant differences were found between free-ranging adult southern and Alaskan population mean serum levels of creatinine kinase, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, calcium, cholesterol, creatinine, glucose, phosphorous, total bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen, and sodium. These were likely due to varying parasite loads, contaminant exposures, and physiologic or nutrition statuses. No free-ranging sea otters had signs of disease at capture, and prevalences of exposure to calicivirus, Brucella spp., and Leptospira spp. were low. The high prevalence (35%) of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in free-ranging southern sea otters, lack of antibodies to this parasite in Alaskan sea otters, and the pathogen's propensity to cause mortality in southern sea otters suggests that this parasite may be important to sea otter population dynamics in California but not in Alaska. The evidence for exposure to pathogens of public health importance (e.g., Leptospira spp., T. gondii) in the southern sea otter population, and the naïveté of both populations to other pathogens (e.g., morbillivirus and Coccidiodes immitis) may have important implications for their management and recovery.

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

PubMed

Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Uribe-Rivera, David E; Costas, Francisco; Cunningham, Andrew A; Soto-Azat, Claudio

2017-09-27

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality. © 2017 The Author(s).