Hierarchical Interactions Model for Predicting Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) Conversion

PubMed Central

Li, Han; Liu, Yashu; Gong, Pinghua; Zhang, Changshui; Ye, Jieping

2014-01-01

Identifying patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) who are likely to convert to dementia has recently attracted increasing attention in Alzheimer's disease (AD) research. An accurate prediction of conversion from MCI to AD can aid clinicians to initiate treatments at early stage and monitor their effectiveness. However, existing prediction systems based on the original biosignatures are not satisfactory. In this paper, we propose to fit the prediction models using pairwise biosignature interactions, thus capturing higher-order relationship among biosignatures. Specifically, we employ hierarchical constraints and sparsity regularization to prune the high-dimensional input features. Based on the significant biosignatures and underlying interactions identified, we build classifiers to predict the conversion probability based on the selected features. We further analyze the underlying interaction effects of different biosignatures based on the so-called stable expectation scores. We have used 293 MCI subjects from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database that have MRI measurements at the baseline to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our proposed method achieves better classification performance than state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, we discover several significant interactions predictive of MCI-to-AD conversion. These results shed light on improving the prediction performance using interaction features. PMID:24416143

An analytical study of the effects of transverse shear deformation and anisotropy on natural vibation frequencies of laminated cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jegley, Dawn C.

1989-01-01

Natural vibration frequencies of orthotropic and anisotropic simply supported right circular cylinders are predicted using a higher-order transverse-shear deformation theory. A comparison of natural vibration frequencies predicted by first-order transverse-shear deformation theory and the higher-order theory shows that an additional allowance for transverse shear deformation has a negligible effect on the lowest predicted natural vibration frequencies of laminated cylinders but significantly reduces the higher natural vibration frequencies. A parametric study of the effects of ply orientation on the natural vibration frequencies of laminated cylinders indicates that while stacking sequence affects natural vibration frequencies, cylinder geometry is more important in predicting transverse-shear deformation effects. Interaction curves for cylinders subjected to axial compressive loadings and low natural vibration frequencies indicate that transverse shearing effects are less important in predicting low natural vibration frequencies than in predicting axial compressive buckling loads. The effects of anisotropy are more important than the effects of transverse shear deformation for most strongly anisotropic laminated cylinders in predicting natural vibration frequencies. However, transverse-shear deformation effects are important in predicting high natural vibration frequencies of thick-walled laminated cylinders. Neglecting either anisotropic effects or transverse-shear deformation effects leads to non-conservative errors in predicted natural vibration frequencies.

An analytical study of the effects of transverse shear deformation and anisotropy on natural vibration frequencies of laminated cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jegley, Dawn C.

1988-01-01

Natural vibration frequencies of orthotropic and anisotropic simply supported right circular cylinders are predicted using a higher-order transverse-shear deformation theory. A comparison of natural vibration frequencies predicted by first-order transverse-shear deformation theory and the higher-order theory shows that an additional allowance for transverse shear deformation has a negligible effect on the lowest predicted natural vibration frequencies of laminated cylinders but significantly reduces the higher natural vibration frequencies. A parametric study of the effects of ply orientation on the natural vibration frequencies of laminated cylinders indicates that while stacking sequence affects natural vibration frequencies, cylinder geometry is more important in predicting transverse-shear deformation effects. Interaction curves for cylinders subjected to axial compressive loadings and low natural vibration frequencies indicate that transverse shearing effects are less important in predicting low natural vibration frequencies than in predicting axial compressive buckling loads. The effects of anisotropy are more important than the effects of transverse shear deformation for most strongly anisotropic laminated cylinders in predicting natural vibration frequencies. However, transverse-shear deformation effects are important in predicting high natural vibration frequencies of thick-walled laminated cylinders. Neglecting either anisotropic effects or transverse-shear deformation effects leads to non-conservative errors in predicted natural vibration frequencies.

Non-additive genetic variation in growth, carcass and fertility traits of beef cattle.

PubMed

Bolormaa, Sunduimijid; Pryce, Jennie E; Zhang, Yuandan; Reverter, Antonio; Barendse, William; Hayes, Ben J; Goddard, Michael E

2015-04-02

A better understanding of non-additive variance could lead to increased knowledge on the genetic control and physiology of quantitative traits, and to improved prediction of the genetic value and phenotype of individuals. Genome-wide panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been mainly used to map additive effects for quantitative traits, but they can also be used to investigate non-additive effects. We estimated dominance and epistatic effects of SNPs on various traits in beef cattle and the variance explained by dominance, and quantified the increase in accuracy of phenotype prediction by including dominance deviations in its estimation. Genotype data (729 068 real or imputed SNPs) and phenotypes on up to 16 traits of 10 191 individuals from Bos taurus, Bos indicus and composite breeds were used. A genome-wide association study was performed by fitting the additive and dominance effects of single SNPs. The dominance variance was estimated by fitting a dominance relationship matrix constructed from the 729 068 SNPs. The accuracy of predicted phenotypic values was evaluated by best linear unbiased prediction using the additive and dominance relationship matrices. Epistatic interactions (additive × additive) were tested between each of the 28 SNPs that are known to have additive effects on multiple traits, and each of the other remaining 729 067 SNPs. The number of significant dominance effects was greater than expected by chance and most of them were in the direction that is presumed to increase fitness and in the opposite direction to inbreeding depression. Estimates of dominance variance explained by SNPs varied widely between traits, but had large standard errors. The median dominance variance across the 16 traits was equal to 5% of the phenotypic variance. Including a dominance deviation in the prediction did not significantly increase its accuracy for any of the phenotypes. The number of additive × additive epistatic effects that were statistically significant was greater than expected by chance. Significant dominance and epistatic effects occur for growth, carcass and fertility traits in beef cattle but they are difficult to estimate precisely and including them in phenotype prediction does not increase its accuracy.

Nonlinear analysis of bonded joints with thermal effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humphreys, E. A.; Herakovich, C. T.

1977-01-01

Nonlinear results are presented for adhesive bonded joints. It is shown that adhesive nonlinearities are only significant in the predicted adhesive shear stresses. Adherend nonlinearities and temperature dependent properties are shown to have little effect upon the adhesive stress predictions under mechanical and thermal loadings.

How important is embeddedness in predicting Australian speech-language pathologists' intentions to leave their jobs and the profession?

PubMed

Heritage, Brody; Quail, Michelle; Cocks, Naomi

2018-03-05

This study explored the predictors of the outcomes of turnover and occupation attrition intentions for speech-language pathologists. The researchers examined the mediating effects of job satisfaction and strain on the relationship between stress and the latter outcomes. Additionally, the researchers examined the importance of embeddedness in predicting turnover intentions after accounting for stress, strain and job satisfaction. An online questionnaire was used to explore turnover and attrition intentions in 293 Australian speech-language pathologists. Job satisfaction contributed to a significant indirect effect on the stress and turnover intention relationship, however strain did not. There was a significant direct effect between stress and turnover intention after accounting for covariates. Embeddedness and the perceived availability of alternative jobs were also found to be significant predictors of turnover intentions. The mediating model used to predict turnover intentions also predicted occupation attrition intentions. The effect of stress on occupation attrition intentions was indirect in nature, the direct effect negated by mediating variables. Qualitative data provided complementary evidence to the quantitative model. The findings indicate that the proposed parsimonious model adequately captures predictors of speech-language pathologists' turnover and occupation attrition intentions. Workplaces and the profession may wish to consider these retention factors.

Word skipping: effects of word length, predictability, spelling and reading skill.

PubMed

Slattery, Timothy J; Yates, Mark

2017-08-31

Readers eyes often skip over words as they read. Skipping rates are largely determined by word length; short words are skipped more than long words. However, the predictability of a word in context also impacts skipping rates. Rayner, Slattery, Drieghe and Liversedge (2011) reported an effect of predictability on word skipping for even long words (10-13 characters) that extend beyond the word identification span. Recent research suggests that better readers and spellers have an enhanced perceptual span (Veldre & Andrews, 2014). We explored whether reading and spelling skill interact with word length and predictability to impact word skipping rates in a large sample (N=92) of average and poor adult readers. Participants read the items from Rayner et al. (2011) while their eye movements were recorded. Spelling skill (zSpell) was assessed using the dictation and recognition tasks developed by Sally Andrews and colleagues. Reading skill (zRead) was assessed from reading speed (words per minute) and accuracy of three 120 word passages each with 10 comprehension questions. We fit linear mixed models to the target gaze duration data and generalized linear mixed models to the target word skipping data. Target word gaze durations were significantly predicted by zRead while, the skipping likelihoods were significantly predicted by zSpell. Additionally, for gaze durations, zRead significantly interacted with word predictability as better readers relied less on context to support word processing. These effects are discussed in relation to the lexical quality hypothesis and eye movement models of reading.

A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-06-01

Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.

Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

PubMed Central

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

2010-01-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. PMID:21198227

Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.

2008-01-01

This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

Further evidence for population specific differences in the effect of DNA markers and gender on eye colour prediction in forensics.

PubMed

Pośpiech, Ewelina; Karłowska-Pik, Joanna; Ziemkiewicz, Bartosz; Kukla, Magdalena; Skowron, Małgorzata; Wojas-Pelc, Anna; Branicki, Wojciech

2016-07-01

The genetics of eye colour has been extensively studied over the past few years, and the identified polymorphisms have been applied with marked success in the field of Forensic DNA Phenotyping. A picture that arises from evaluation of the currently available eye colour prediction markers shows that only the analysis of HERC2-OCA2 complex has similar effectiveness in different populations, while the predictive potential of other loci may vary significantly. Moreover, the role of gender in the explanation of human eye colour variation should not be neglected in some populations. In the present study, we re-investigated the data for 1020 Polish individuals and using neural networks and logistic regression methods explored predictive capacity of IrisPlex SNPs and gender in this population sample. In general, neural networks provided higher prediction accuracy comparing to logistic regression (AUC increase by 0.02-0.06). Four out of six IrisPlex SNPs were associated with eye colour in the studied population. HERC2 rs12913832, OCA2 rs1800407 and SLC24A4 rs12896399 were found to be the most important eye colour predictors (p < 0.007) while the effect of rs16891982 in SLC45A2 was less significant. Gender was found to be significantly associated with eye colour with males having ~1.5 higher odds for blue eye colour comparing to females (p = 0.002) and was ranked as the third most important factor in blue/non-blue eye colour determination. However, the implementation of gender into the developed prediction models had marginal and ambiguous impact on the overall accuracy of prediction confirming that the effect of gender on eye colour in this population is small. Our study indicated the advantage of neural networks in prediction modeling in forensics and provided additional evidence for population specific differences in the predictive importance of the IrisPlex SNPs and gender.

Understanding Adolescent Delinquency: The Role of Older Siblings’ Delinquency and Popularity with Peers

PubMed Central

Craine, Jessica L.; Tanaka, Teri A.; Nishina, Adrienne; Conger, Katherine J.

2009-01-01

The present study examined delinquency concordance and the moderating effects of younger sibling perceptions of older sibling popularity in a sample of 587 adolescent sibling pairs. Using a social learning framework, and taking dyad composition into account, perceptions of popularity were hypothesized to strengthen siblings’ concordance for delinquency. Older sibling delinquency significantly predicted younger sibling delinquency. Older sibling popularity was not important in predicting boys’ delinquency. However, perceptions of older sibling popularity directly predicted reduced delinquency for girls with older sisters. A significant interaction effect was found for girls with older brothers. Older brother delinquency predicted girls’ delinquency for girls who perceived their older brother to be relatively popular. There was no delinquency concordance for girls who perceived their older brothers to be less popular. PMID:20305731

Investigation on the Accuracy of Superposition Predictions of Film Cooling Effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Tong; Zhu, Hui-ren; Liu, Cun-liang; Wei, Jian-sheng

2018-05-01

Film cooling effectiveness on flat plates with double rows of holes has been studied experimentally and numerically in this paper. This configuration is widely used to simulate the multi-row film cooling on turbine vane. Film cooling effectiveness of double rows of holes and each single row was used to study the accuracy of superposition predictions. Method of stable infrared measurement technique was used to measure the surface temperature on the flat plate. This paper analyzed the factors that affect the film cooling effectiveness including hole shape, hole arrangement, row-to-row spacing and blowing ratio. Numerical simulations were performed to analyze the flow structure and film cooling mechanisms between each film cooling row. Results show that the blowing ratio within the range of 0.5 to 2 has a significant influence on the accuracy of superposition predictions. At low blowing ratios, results obtained by superposition method agree well with the experimental data. While at high blowing ratios, the accuracy of superposition prediction decreases. Another significant factor is hole arrangement. Results obtained by superposition prediction are nearly the same as experimental values of staggered arrangement structures. For in-line configurations, the superposition values of film cooling effectiveness are much higher than experimental data. For different hole shapes, the accuracy of superposition predictions on converging-expanding holes is better than cylinder holes and compound angle holes. For two different hole spacing structures in this paper, predictions show good agreement with the experiment results.

Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

PubMed

Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

2015-03-01

We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

Predictors of early growth in academic achievement: the head-toes-knees-shoulders task

PubMed Central

McClelland, Megan M.; Cameron, Claire E.; Duncan, Robert; Bowles, Ryan P.; Acock, Alan C.; Miao, Alicia; Pratt, Megan E.

2014-01-01

Children's behavioral self-regulation and executive function (EF; including attentional or cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control) are strong predictors of academic achievement. The present study examined the psychometric properties of a measure of behavioral self-regulation called the Head-Toes-Knees-Shoulders (HTKS) by assessing construct validity, including relations to EF measures, and predictive validity to academic achievement growth between prekindergarten and kindergarten. In the fall and spring of prekindergarten and kindergarten, 208 children (51% enrolled in Head Start) were assessed on the HTKS, measures of cognitive flexibility, working memory (WM), and inhibitory control, and measures of emergent literacy, mathematics, and vocabulary. For construct validity, the HTKS was significantly related to cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control in prekindergarten and kindergarten. For predictive validity in prekindergarten, a random effects model indicated that the HTKS significantly predicted growth in mathematics, whereas a cognitive flexibility task significantly predicted growth in mathematics and vocabulary. In kindergarten, the HTKS was the only measure to significantly predict growth in all academic outcomes. An alternative conservative analytical approach, a fixed effects analysis (FEA) model, also indicated that growth in both the HTKS and measures of EF significantly predicted growth in mathematics over four time points between prekindergarten and kindergarten. Results demonstrate that the HTKS involves cognitive flexibility, working memory, and inhibitory control, and is substantively implicated in early achievement, with the strongest relations found for growth in achievement during kindergarten and associations with emergent mathematics. PMID:25071619

The effects of topography on magma chamber deformation models: Application to Mt. Etna and radar interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Charles A.; Wadge, Geoff

We have used a three-dimensional elastic finite element model to examine the effects of topography on the surface deformation predicted by models of magma chamber deflation. We used the topography of Mt. Etna to control the geometry of our model, and compared the finite element results to those predicted by an analytical solution for a pressurized sphere in an elastic half-space. Topography has a significant effect on the predicted surface deformation for both displacement profiles and synthetic interferograms. Not only are the predicted displacement magnitudes significantly different, but also the map-view patterns of displacement. It is possible to match the predicted displacement magnitudes fairly well by adjusting the elevation of a reference surface; however, the horizontal pattern of deformation is still significantly different. Thus, inversions based on constant-elevation reference surfaces may not properly estimate the horizontal position of a magma chamber. We have investigated an approach where the elevation of the reference surface varies for each computation point, corresponding to topography. For vertical displacements and tilts this method provides a good fit to the finite element results, and thus may form the basis for an inversion scheme. For radial displacements, a constant reference elevation provides a better fit to the numerical results.

The effects of transverse shearing and anisotropy on vibration frequencies of laminated cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jegley, D. C.

1990-01-01

The natural vibration frequencies of orthotropic and anisotropic, simply supported right circular cylinders are predicted using a theory which takes into account higher-order transverse shear deformation effects. A comparison between results based on first-order transverse shear deformation theory and the higher-order theory indicates that an additional allowance for transverse shear deformation has a negligible effect on the predicted natural vibration frequencies associated with long wavelengths, but significantly reduces the natural vibration frequencies associated with short wavelengths. Results of a parametric study of ply orientation for two classes of laminates indicates that while stacking sequence affects natural vibration frequencies, cylinder geometry and mode shape are more important in accurately predicting transverse shear deformation effects. Transverse shearing effects are less important in predicting natural vibration frequencies associated with long wavelength than in predicting axial compressive buckling loads.

The significance of parameter uncertainties for the prediction of offshore pile driving noise.

PubMed

Lippert, Tristan; von Estorff, Otto

2014-11-01

Due to the construction of offshore wind farms and its potential effect on marine wildlife, the numerical prediction of pile driving noise over long ranges has recently gained importance. In this contribution, a coupled finite element/wavenumber integration model for noise prediction is presented and validated by measurements. The ocean environment, especially the sea bottom, can only be characterized with limited accuracy in terms of input parameters for the numerical model at hand. Therefore the effect of these parameter uncertainties on the prediction of sound pressure levels (SPLs) in the water column is investigated by a probabilistic approach. In fact, a variation of the bottom material parameters by means of Monte-Carlo simulations shows significant effects on the predicted SPLs. A sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to the single quantities is performed, as well as a global variation. Based on the latter, the probability distribution of the SPLs at an exemplary receiver position is evaluated and compared to measurements. The aim of this procedure is to develop a model to reliably predict an interval for the SPLs, by quantifying the degree of uncertainty of the SPLs with the MC simulations.

Infant attachment disorganization and moderation pathways to level and change in externalizing behavior during preschool ages.

PubMed

Wang, Feihong; Willoughby, Michael; Mills-Koonce, Roger; Cox, Martha J

2016-12-01

This research examined the child, parent, and family conditions under which attachment disorganization was related to both level and change in externalizing behavior during preschool among a community sample. Using the ordinary least squares regression, we found that attachment disorganization at 12 months significantly predicted children's externalizing behavior at 36 months and this prediction was not contingent on any other factors tested. For predicting changes in externalizing behavior from 36 to 60 months, we found a significant main effect of family cumulative risk and an interaction effect between attachment disorganization at 12 months and maternal sensitivity at 24 months. Specifically, high disorganization was related to a significant decrease in externalizing behavior from 36 to 60 months when maternal sensitivity at 24 months was high. Our main-effect findings replicated the significant effect of attachment disorganization and cumulative risk on externalizing behavior with preschool-aged children. Our interaction finding provided support for understanding the parenting conditions under which infant attachment disorganization may be related to change in externalizing behavior during preschool ages. Implications of the findings were discussed.

Combining Structural Modeling with Ensemble Machine Learning to Accurately Predict Protein Fold Stability and Binding Affinity Effects upon Mutation

PubMed Central

Garcia Lopez, Sebastian; Kim, Philip M.

2014-01-01

Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT) algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases. PMID:25243403

[Fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel bed under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. II. Analysis of the factors affecting flame length and residence time and related prediction models].

PubMed

Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Jin, Sen

2012-11-01

Taking fuel moisture content, fuel loading, and fuel bed depth as controlling factors, the fuel beds of Mongolian oak leaves in Maoershan region of Northeast China in field were simulated, and a total of one hundred experimental burnings under no-wind and zero-slope conditions were conducted in laboratory, with the effects of the fuel moisture content, fuel loading, and fuel bed depth on the flame length and its residence time analyzed and the multivariate linear prediction models constructed. The results indicated that fuel moisture content had a significant negative liner correlation with flame length, but less correlation with flame residence time. Both the fuel loading and the fuel bed depth were significantly positively correlated with flame length and its residence time. The interactions of fuel bed depth with fuel moisture content and fuel loading had significant effects on the flame length, while the interactions of fuel moisture content with fuel loading and fuel bed depth affected the flame residence time significantly. The prediction model of flame length had better prediction effect, which could explain 83.3% of variance, with a mean absolute error of 7.8 cm and a mean relative error of 16.2%, while the prediction model of flame residence time was not good enough, which could only explain 54% of variance, with a mean absolute error of 9.2 s and a mean relative error of 18.6%.

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A.; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens’ attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth—two key variables for climato-economic theory—predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories. PMID:26030736

Predicting Attitudes toward Press- and Speech Freedom across the U.S.A.: A Test of Climato-Economic, Parasite Stress, and Life History Theories.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinguang; Reid, Scott A; Xu, Jing

2015-01-01

National surveys reveal notable individual differences in U.S. citizens' attitudes toward freedom of expression, including freedom of the press and speech. Recent theoretical developments and empirical findings suggest that ecological factors impact censorship attitudes in addition to individual difference variables (e.g., education, conservatism), but no research has compared the explanatory power of prominent ecological theories. This study tested climato-economic, parasite stress, and life history theories using four measures of attitudes toward censoring the press and offensive speech obtained from two national surveys in the U.S.A. Neither climate demands nor its interaction with state wealth--two key variables for climato-economic theory--predicted any of the four outcome measures. Interstate parasite stress significantly predicted two, with a marginally significant effect on the third, but the effects became non-significant when the analyses were stratified for race (as a control for extrinsic risks). Teenage birth rates (a proxy of human life history) significantly predicted attitudes toward press freedom during wartime, but the effect was the opposite of what life history theory predicted. While none of the three theories provided a fully successful explanation of individual differences in attitudes toward freedom of expression, parasite stress and life history theories do show potentials. Future research should continue examining the impact of these ecological factors on human psychology by further specifying the mechanisms and developing better measures for those theories.

Utility of the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behavior for predicting Chinese adolescent smoking.

PubMed

Guo, Qian; Johnson, C Anderson; Unger, Jennifer B; Lee, Liming; Xie, Bin; Chou, Chih-Ping; Palmer, Paula H; Sun, Ping; Gallaher, Peggy; Pentz, MaryAnn

2007-05-01

One third of smokers worldwide live in China. Identifying predictors of smoking is important for prevention program development. This study explored whether the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) predict adolescent smoking in China. Data were obtained from 14,434 middle and high school students (48.6% boys, 51.4% girls) in seven geographically varied cities in China. TRA and TPB were tested by multilevel mediation modeling, and compared by multilevel analyses and likelihood ratio tests. Perceived behavioral control was tested as a main effect in TPB and a moderation effect in TRA. The mediation effects of smoking intention were supported in both models (p<0.001). TPB accounted for significantly more variance than TRA (p<0.001). Perceived behavioral control significantly interacted with attitudes and social norms in TRA (p<0.001). Therefore, TRA and TPB are applicable to China to predict adolescent smoking. TPB is superior to TRA for the prediction and TRA can better predict smoking among students with lower than higher perceived behavioral control.

Multiple dynamics in a single predator-prey system: experimental effects of food quality.

PubMed Central

Nelson, W A; McCauley, E; Wrona, F J

2001-01-01

Recent work with the freshwater zooplankton Daphnia has suggested that the quality of its algal prey can have a significant effect on its demographic rates and life-history patterns. Predator-prey theory linking food quantity and food quality predicts that a single system should be able to display two distinct patterns of population dynamics. One pattern is predicted to have high herbivore and low algal biomass dynamics (high HBD), whereas the other is predicted to have low herbivore and high algal biomass dynamics (low HBD). Despite these predictions and the stoichiometric evidence that many phytoplankton communities may have poor access to food of quality, there have been few tests of whether a dynamic predator-prey system can display both of these distinct patterns. Here we report, to the authors' knowledge, the first evidence for two dynamical patterns, as predicted by theory, in a single predator-prey system. We show that the high HBD is a result of food quantity effects and that the low HBD is a result of food quality effects, which are maintained by phosphorus limitation in the predator. These results provide an important link between the known effects of nutrient limitation in herbivores and the significance of prey quality in predator-prey population dynamics in natural zooplankton communities. PMID:11410147

Predictive and Reactive Locomotor Adaptability in Healthy Elderly: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bohm, Sebastian; Mademli, Lida; Mersmann, Falk; Arampatzis, Adamantios

2015-12-01

Locomotor adaptability is based on the implementation of error-feedback information from previous perturbations to predictively adapt to expected perturbations (feedforward) and to facilitate reactive responses in recurring unexpected perturbations ('savings'). The effect of aging on predictive and reactive adaptability is yet unclear. However, such understanding is fundamental for the design and application of effective interventions targeting fall prevention. We systematically searched the Web of Science, MEDLINE, Embase and Science Direct databases as well as the reference lists of the eligible articles. A study was included if it addressed an investigation of the locomotor adaptability in response to repeated mechanical movement perturbations of healthy older adults (≥60 years). The weighted average effect size (WAES) of the general adaptability (adaptive motor responses to repeated perturbations) as well as predictive (after-effects) and reactive adaptation (feedback responses to a recurring unexpected perturbation) was calculated and tested for an overall effect. A subgroup analysis was performed regarding the factor age group [i.e., young (≤35 years) vs. older adults]. Furthermore, the methodological study quality was assessed. The review process yielded 18 studies [1009 participants, 613 older adults (70 ± 4 years)], which used various kinds of locomotor tasks and perturbations. The WAES for the general locomotor adaptability was 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.74, n = 11] for the older and 1.39 (95% CI 0.90-1.89, n = 10) for the young adults with a significant (p < 0.05) overall effect for both age groups and no significant subgroup differences. Similar results were found for the predictive (older: WAES 1.10, 95% CI 0.37-1.83, n = 8; young: WAES 1.54, 95% CI 0.11-2.97, n = 7) and reactive (older: WAES 1.09, 95% CI 0.22-1.96, n = 5; young: WAES 1.35, 95% CI 0.60-2.09, n = 5) adaptation featuring significant (p < 0.05) overall effects without subgroup differences. The average score of the methodological quality was 67 ± 8 %. The present meta-analysis provides elaborate statistical evidence that locomotor adaptability in general and predictive and reactive adaptation in particular remain highly effective in the elderly, showing only minor, not statistically significant age-related deficits. Consequently, interventions which use adaptation and learning paradigms including the application of the mechanisms responsible for an effective predictive and reactive dynamic stability control may progressively improve older adults' recovery performance and, thus, reduce their risk of falling.

Modeling of surface tension effects in venturi scrubbing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, Robert M.; Wu, Tatsu K. L.; Crowder, Jerry W.

A modified model of venturi scrubber performance has been developed that addresses two effects of liquid surface tension: its effect on droplet size and its effect on particle penetration into the droplet. The predictions of the model indicate that, in general, collection efficiency increases with a decrease in liquid surface tension, but the range over which this increase is significant depends on the particle size and on the scrubber operating parameters. The predictions further indicate that the increases in collection efficiency are almost totally due to the effect of liquid surface tension on the mean droplet size, and that the collection efficiency is not significantly affected by the ability of the particle to penetrate the droplet.

Effects of Stopping Ions and LET Fluctuations on Soft Error Rate Prediction.

DOE PAGES

Weeden-Wright, S. L.; King, Michael Patrick; Hooten, N. C.; ...

2015-02-01

Variability in energy deposition from stopping ions and LET fluctuations is quantified for specific radiation environments. When compared to predictions using average LET via CREME96, LET fluctuations lead to an order-of-magnitude difference in effective flux and a nearly 4x decrease in predicted soft error rate (SER) in an example calculation performed on a commercial 65 nm SRAM. The large LET fluctuations reported here will be even greater for the smaller sensitive volumes that are characteristic of highly scaled technologies. End-of-range effects of stopping ions do not lead to significant inaccuracies in radiation environments with low solar activity unless the sensitivevolumemore » thickness is 100 μm or greater. In contrast, end-of-range effects for stopping ions lead to significant inaccuracies for sensitive- volume thicknesses less than 10 μm in radiation environments with high solar activity.« less

Short-term effects of medetomidine on photosynthesis and protein synthesis in periphyton, epipsammon and plankton communities in relation to predicted environmental concentrations.

PubMed

Ohlauson, Cecilia; Eriksson, Karl Martin; Blanck, Hans

2012-01-01

Medetomidine is a new antifouling substance, highly effective against barnacles. As part of a thorough ecotoxicological evaluation of medetomidine, its short-term effects on algal and bacterial communities were investigated and environmental concentrations were predicted with the MAMPEC model. Photosynthesis and bacterial protein synthesis for three marine communities, viz. periphyton, epipsammon and plankton were used as effect indicators, and compared with the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). The plankton community showed a significant decrease in photosynthetic activity of 16% at 2 mg l⁻¹ of medetomidine, which was the only significant effect observed. PECs were estimated for a harbor, shipping lane and marina environment using three different model scenarios (MAMPEC default, Baltic and OECD scenarios). The highest PEC of 57 ng l⁻¹, generated for a marina with the Baltic scenario, was at least 10,000-fold lower than the concentration that significantly decreased photosynthetic activity. It is concluded that medetomidine does not cause any acute toxic effects on bacterial protein synthesis and only small acute effects on photosynthesis at high concentrations in marine microbial communities. It is also concluded that the hazard from medetomidine on these processes is low since the effect levels are much lower than the highest PEC.

Implicit and explicit attitudes predict smoking cessation: moderating effects of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit.

PubMed

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C; Sherman, Steven J; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jonathan T

2010-12-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Transcranial magnetic stimulation over the cerebellum delays predictive head movements in the coordination of gaze.

PubMed

Zangemeister, W H; Nagel, M

2001-01-01

We investigated coordinated saccadic eye and head movements following predictive horizontal visual targets at +/- 30 degrees by applying transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over the cerebellum before the start of the gaze movement in 10 young subjects. We found three effects of TMS on eye-head movements: 1. Saccadic latency effect. When stimulation took place shortly before movements commenced (75-25 ms before), significantly shorter latencies were found between predictive target presentation and initiation of saccades. Eye latencies were significantly decreased by 45 ms on average, but head latencies were not. 2. Gaze amplitude effect. Without TMS, for the 60 degrees target amplitudes, head movements usually preceded eye movements, as expected (predictive gaze type 3). With TMS 5-75 ms before the gaze movement, the number of eye movements preceding head movements by 20-50 ms was significantly increased (p < 0.001) and the delay between eye and head movements was reversed (p < 0.001), i.e. we found eye-predictive gaze type 1. 3. Saccadic peak velocity effect. For TMS 5-25 s before the start of head movement, mean peak velocity of synkinetic eye saccades increased by 20-30% up to 600 degrees/s, compared to 350-400 degrees/s without TMS. We conclude that transient functional cerebellar deficits exerted by means of TMS can change the central synkinesis of eye-head coordination, including the preprogramming of the saccadic pulse and step of a coordinated gaze movement.

Predictors of Mental Health Symptoms, Automatic Thoughts, and Self-Esteem Among University Students.

PubMed

Hiçdurmaz, Duygu; İnci, Figen; Karahan, Sevilay

2017-01-01

University youth is a risk group regarding mental health, and many mental health problems are frequent in this group. Sociodemographic factors such as level of income and familial factors such as relationship with father are reported to be associated with mental health symptoms, automatic thoughts, and self-esteem. Also, there are interrelations between mental health problems, automatic thoughts, and self-esteem. The extent of predictive effect of each of these variables on automatic thoughts, self-esteem, and mental health symptoms is not known. We aimed to determine the predictive factors of mental health symptoms, automatic thoughts, and self-esteem in university students. Participants were 530 students enrolled at a university in Turkey, during 2014-2015 academic year. Data were collected using the student information form, the Brief Symptom Inventory, the Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire, and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. Mental health symptoms, self-esteem, perception of the relationship with the father, and level of income as a student significantly predicted automatic thoughts. Automatic thoughts, mental health symptoms, participation in family decisions, and age had significant predictive effects on self-esteem. Finally, automatic thoughts, self-esteem, age, and perception of the relationship with the father had significant predictive effects on mental health symptoms. The predictive factors revealed in our study provide important information to practitioners and researchers by showing the elements that need to be screened for mental health of university students and issues that need to be included in counseling activities.

Adolescents' protection motivation and smoking behaviour.

PubMed

Thrul, Johannes; Stemmler, Mark; Bühler, Anneke; Kuntsche, Emmanuel

2013-08-01

The protection motivation theory (PMT) is a well-known theory of behaviour change. This study tested the applicability of the sub-constructs of threat and coping appraisal in predicting adolescents' smoking-related behavioural intentions and smoking behaviour longitudinally. Adolescents (N = 494) aged 11-16 years and not currently smoking at baseline participated in the study. Predictive validity of PMT constructs was tested in a path analysis model. Self-efficacy significantly predicted behavioural intention at baseline, which significantly predicted behavioural intention at follow-up, which in turn predicted smoking behaviour at follow-up. The effect of self-efficacy on behavioural intention at follow-up was mediated by behavioural intention at baseline and the effect of self-efficacy on smoking behaviour was mediated by behavioural intention at baseline and follow-up. In conclusion, we found support for one part of the PMT, namely for the predictive validity of the coping appraisal construct self-efficacy in predicting adolescents' smoking-related behavioural intention and smoking behaviour. These results fail to support the appropriateness of the PMT's construct threat appraisal in longitudinally predicting adolescents' smoking as well as the applicability of communicating fear and negative information as preventive interventions for this target group.

Evaluating the Effect of Educational Media Exposure on Aggression in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ostrov, Jamie M.; Gentile, Douglas A.; Mullins, Adam D.

2013-01-01

Preschool-aged children (M = 42.44 months-old, SD = 8.02) participated in a short-term longitudinal study investigating the effect of educational media exposure on social development (i.e., aggression and prosocial behavior) using multiple informants and methods. As predicted, educational media exposure significantly predicted increases in both…

Leadership styles, emotion regulation, and burnout.

PubMed

Arnold, Kara A; Connelly, Catherine E; Walsh, Megan M; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A

2015-10-01

This study investigated the potential impact of leadership style on leaders' emotional regulation strategies and burnout. Drawing on the full-range model of leadership and Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, we tested whether transformational, contingent reward, management by exception-active and -passive, or laissez-faire leadership exert direct effects on leaders' reported use of surface acting, deep acting, and genuine emotion. In turn, we hypothesized and tested the indirect effect of leadership on burnout through surface acting. Three waves of data from 205 leaders were analyzed using OLS regression. Transformational leadership predicted deep acting and genuine emotion. Contingent reward predicted both surface and deep acting. Management by exception-active and -passive predicted surface acting, and laissez faire predicted genuine emotion. The indirect effects of management by exception-active and -passive on burnout through surface acting were not significant. Indirect effects of transformational leadership and laissez-faire on burnout through genuine emotion, however, were significant. This study provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized relationships between leadership style, emotion regulation, and burnout, and provides the basis for future research and theory building on this topic. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

I see so I feel: Coping with workplace violence among victims and witnesses.

PubMed

Zhou, Biru; Marchand, Alain; Guay, Stéphane

2017-01-01

Workplace violence is a serious concern for workers' mental health and well-being in high risk work sectors. This study examined victims' and witnesses' experiences after exposure to workplace violence, and the types of help they used to cope with the violent event. Workers (n = 211) from five different work sectors participated in our study. Multiple mediation analysis was used to investigate the indirect effects through psychological and work consequences on victims' versus witnesses' differential likelihood of using formal, paraformal and informal helping. Results showed that workplace violence has detrimental effects on both victims and witnesses. Direct victims were more negatively affected psychologically and at work than witnesses. The indirect effect through psychological difficulty after experiencing workplace violence was significant in predicting formal helping. The indirect effect through reduced work functioning in predicting paraformal helping was also significant. No significant indirect effect was found in predicting informal helping. Both victims and witnesses used multiple types of helping to cope with the violent event. This study has practical implications on management and clinical practices for better organizations of resources in helping victims and witnesses to cope with workplace violence.

Gender Roles, Externalizing Behaviors, and Substance Use Among Mexican-American Adolescents

PubMed Central

KULIS, STEPHEN; MARSIGLIA, FLAVIO F.; NAGOSHI, JULIE L.

2010-01-01

A sample of 60 male and 91 female Mexican-American adolescents (age 13–18) were administered measures of positive (i.e., assertive masculinity, affective femininity) and negative (i.e., aggressive masculinity, submissive femininity) gender roles, internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors, peer substance use, and own substance use (alcohol, cigarettes, marijuana). Negative gender roles were significantly correlated with internalizing and externalizing problems for both boys and girls, with aggressive masculinity also predicting peer substance use for both genders. Assertive masculinity significantly predicted lower alcohol use in boys, and this effect was not mediated by internalizing problems, externalizing problems, or peer substance use. Negative gender roles significantly predicted higher alcohol use in girls, but this effect was almost completely mediated by internalizing problems, externalizing problems, and peer substance use. Results are discussed in terms of gender role socialization among Mexican Americans. PMID:21031145

On the Validity of Validity Scales: The Importance of Defensive Responding in the Prediction of Institutional Misconduct

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edens, John F.; Ruiz, Mark A.

2006-01-01

This study examined the effects of defensive responding on the prediction of institutional misconduct among male inmates (N = 349) who completed the Personality Assessment Inventory (L. C. Morey, 1991). Hierarchical logistic regression analyses demonstrated significant main effects for the Antisocial Features (ANT) scale as well as main effects…

Validity of the MMPI Personality Disorder scales (MMPI-PD).

PubMed

Schuler, C E; Snibbe, J R; Buckwalter, J G

1994-03-01

The MMPI Personality Disorder scales, developed by Morey, Waugh, and Blashfield (1985), were validated on an inpatient population by comparing 104 patients' MMPI-PD scores with the MCMI and with DSM-III-R diagnosis. Conservative significance levels were used to ensure more valid conclusions. Schizoid, Avoidant, Dependent, Histrionic, and Narcissistic scales were correlated significantly. Passive-Aggressive, Schizotypal, and Borderline scales did not correlate with corresponding MCMI scales. The MMPI-PD nonoverlapping scales were most effective in predicting diagnosis, specifically the Personality Disorder NOS, Eccentric and Borderline groups. The overlapping scales were not as effective in predicting diagnosis, but best predicted the Eccentric and Borderline groups. This study provides support for the validity of specific scales and circumscribed diagnostic utility for both measures.

Early PET/CT scan is more effective than RECIST in predicting outcome of patients with liver metastases from colorectal cancer treated with preoperative chemotherapy plus bevacizumab.

PubMed

Lastoria, Secondo; Piccirillo, Maria Carmela; Caracò, Corradina; Nasti, Guglielmo; Aloj, Luigi; Arrichiello, Cecilia; de Lutio di Castelguidone, Elisabetta; Tatangelo, Fabiana; Ottaiano, Alessandro; Iaffaioli, Rosario Vincenzo; Izzo, Francesco; Romano, Giovanni; Giordano, Pasqualina; Signoriello, Simona; Gallo, Ciro; Perrone, Francesco

2013-12-01

Markers predictive of treatment effect might be useful to improve the treatment of patients with metastatic solid tumors. Particularly, early changes in tumor metabolism measured by PET/CT with (18)F-FDG could predict the efficacy of treatment better than standard dimensional Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors (RECIST) response. We performed PET/CT evaluation before and after 1 cycle of treatment in patients with resectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer, within a phase 2 trial of preoperative FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab. For each lesion, the maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined. On the basis of previous studies, a ≤ -50% change from baseline was used as a threshold for significant metabolic response for maximum SUV and, exploratively, for TLG. Standard RECIST response was assessed with CT after 3 mo of treatment. Pathologic response was assessed in patients undergoing resection. The association between metabolic and CT/RECIST and pathologic response was tested with the McNemar test; the ability to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was tested with the Log-rank test and a multivariable Cox model. Thirty-three patients were analyzed. After treatment, there was a notable decrease of all the parameters measured by PET/CT. Early metabolic PET/CT response (either SUV- or TLG-based) had a stronger, independent and statistically significant predictive value for PFS and OS than both CT/RECIST and pathologic response at multivariate analysis, although with different degrees of statistical significance. The predictive value of CT/RECIST response was not significant at multivariate analysis. PET/CT response was significantly predictive of long-term outcomes during preoperative treatment of patients with liver metastases from colorectal cancer, and its predictive ability was higher than that of CT/RECIST response after 3 mo of treatment. Such findings need to be confirmed by larger prospective trials.

Effect of altitude on seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi flies (Diptera: Tephritidae).

PubMed

Kovanci, O B; Kovanci, B

2006-08-01

The effect of altitudinal variation on the seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi (Linnaeus) flies was evaluated along an altitudinal gradient from 150 to 1170 m in Mount Uludag, northwestern Turkey. The predicted dates of fly emergence, flight duration and dates of 5%, 50% and 95% cumulative fly catches at various altitudes were estimated from a degree-day model. Degree-day predictions were compared with those obtained from observations made with yellow sticky traps. The observed and predicted dates of appearance of adults were delayed by 1.4 and 2.0 days for every 100 m increase in altitude, respectively. The delay in phenology events was less at high altitudes than postulated by Hopkins' bioclimatic law, whether observed or predicted. The average absolute difference in predicted and observed dates of cumulative percentage catch of adults was 4.9 and 3.0 days in 1997 and 1998, respectively, but these differences were not significant. Prolonged flight activity was predicted and observed at higher altitudes, but the flight period lasted significantly longer than predicted. The observed flight period varied from 29 to 43 days in 1997 and from 36 to 52 days in 1998 between the lowest and highest altitude on the transect. Altitudinal variation between geographically close locations should be taken into account to properly time monitoring activities and hence to manage R. cerasi populations more effectively.

Examining the association between race, ethnicity, and health status: do assets matter?

PubMed

Boyas, Javier; Shobe, Marcia A; Hannam, Holly M

2009-10-01

The current study employs data from the 2004 Immigration and Intergenerational Mobility in Metropolitan Los Angeles (IIMMLA) study to examine the degree to which observed differences in self-reported health status between African Americans, Asians, Latinos, and non-Hispanic Whites in the United States can be attributed to differences in various indicators of socioeconomic status. Results of the multinomial logistic regression techniques suggest that socioeconomic indicators had varying significant effects in predicting self-reported health status among all racial and ethnic groups. Among African Americans, homeownership, income, and age played a significant role. Among Asian Americans, only income and age significantly predicted health status. Among Latinos, income, having a checking account, and age significantly shaped health status, while education, age, and homeownership significantly predicted health status among non-Hispanic Whites.

Barriers to Quitting Smoking among Substance Dependent Patients Predict Smoking Cessation Treatment Outcome

PubMed Central

Martin, Rosemarie A.; Cassidy, Rachel; Murphy, Cara M.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

2016-01-01

For smokers with substance use disorders (SUD), perceived barriers to quitting smoking include concerns unique to effects on sobriety as well as usual concerns. We expanded our Barriers to Quitting Smoking in Substance Abuse Treatment (BQS-SAT) scale, added importance ratings, validated it, and then used the importance scores to predict smoking treatment response in smokers with substance use disorders (SUD) undergoing smoking treatment in residential treatment programs in two studies (n = 184 and 340). Both components (General Barriers, Weight Concerns) were replicated with excellent internal consistency reliability. Construct validity was supported by significant correlations with pretreatment nicotine dependence, smoking variables, smoking self-efficacy, and expected effects of smoking. General Barriers significantly predicted 1-month smoking abstinence, frequency and heaviness, and 3-month smoking frequency; Weight Concerns predicted 1-month smoking frequency. Implications involve addressing barriers with corrective information in smoking treatment for smokers with SUD. PMID:26979552

Barriers to Quitting Smoking Among Substance Dependent Patients Predict Smoking Cessation Treatment Outcome.

PubMed

Martin, Rosemarie A; Cassidy, Rachel N; Murphy, Cara M; Rohsenow, Damaris J

2016-05-01

For smokers with substance use disorders (SUD), perceived barriers to quitting smoking include concerns unique to effects on sobriety as well as usual concerns. We expanded our Barriers to Quitting Smoking in Substance Abuse Treatment (BQS-SAT) scale, added importance ratings, validated it, and then used the importance scores to predict smoking treatment response in smokers with substance use disorders (SUD) undergoing smoking treatment in residential treatment programs in two studies (n=184 and 340). Both components (general barriers, weight concerns) were replicated with excellent internal consistency reliability. Construct validity was supported by significant correlations with pretreatment nicotine dependence, smoking variables, smoking self-efficacy, and expected effects of smoking. General barriers significantly predicted 1-month smoking abstinence, frequency and heaviness, and 3-month smoking frequency; weight concerns predicted 1-month smoking frequency. Implications involve addressing barriers with corrective information in smoking treatment for smokers with SUD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of inclined soil layers on surface vibration from underground railways using a semi-analytical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, S.; Hunt, H.

2009-08-01

Ground vibration due to underground railways is a significant source of disturbance for people living or working near the subways. The numerical models used to predict vibration levels have inherent uncertainty which must be understood to give confidence in the predictions. A semi-analytical approach is developed herein to investigate the effect of soil layering on the surface vibration of a halfspace where both soil properties and layer inclination angles are varied. The study suggests that both material properties and inclination angle of the layers have significant effect (± 10dB) on the surface vibration response.

Predicting changes in cardiac myocyte contractility during early drug discovery with in vitro assays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morton, M.J., E-mail: michael.morton@astrazeneca.com; Armstrong, D.; Abi Gerges, N.

2014-09-01

Cardiovascular-related adverse drug effects are a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry. Activity of an investigational drug at the L-type calcium channel could manifest in a number of ways, including changes in cardiac contractility. The aim of this study was to define which of the two assay technologies – radioligand-binding or automated electrophysiology – was most predictive of contractility effects in an in vitro myocyte contractility assay. The activity of reference and proprietary compounds at the L-type calcium channel was measured by radioligand-binding assays, conventional patch-clamp, automated electrophysiology, and by measurement of contractility in canine isolated cardiac myocytes. Activity inmore » the radioligand-binding assay at the L-type Ca channel phenylalkylamine binding site was most predictive of an inotropic effect in the canine cardiac myocyte assay. The sensitivity was 73%, specificity 83% and predictivity 78%. The radioligand-binding assay may be run at a single test concentration and potency estimated. The least predictive assay was automated electrophysiology which showed a significant bias when compared with other assay formats. Given the importance of the L-type calcium channel, not just in cardiac function, but also in other organ systems, a screening strategy emerges whereby single concentration ligand-binding can be performed early in the discovery process with sufficient predictivity, throughput and turnaround time to influence chemical design and address a significant safety-related liability, at relatively low cost. - Highlights: • The L-type calcium channel is a significant safety liability during drug discovery. • Radioligand-binding to the L-type calcium channel can be measured in vitro. • The assay can be run at a single test concentration as part of a screening cascade. • This measurement is highly predictive of changes in cardiac myocyte contractility.« less

A systematic molecular dynamics study of nearest-neighbor effects on base pair and base pair step conformations and fluctuations in B-DNA

PubMed Central

Lavery, Richard; Zakrzewska, Krystyna; Beveridge, David; Bishop, Thomas C.; Case, David A.; Cheatham, Thomas; Dixit, Surjit; Jayaram, B.; Lankas, Filip; Laughton, Charles; Maddocks, John H.; Michon, Alexis; Osman, Roman; Orozco, Modesto; Perez, Alberto; Singh, Tanya; Spackova, Nada; Sponer, Jiri

2010-01-01

It is well recognized that base sequence exerts a significant influence on the properties of DNA and plays a significant role in protein–DNA interactions vital for cellular processes. Understanding and predicting base sequence effects requires an extensive structural and dynamic dataset which is currently unavailable from experiment. A consortium of laboratories was consequently formed to obtain this information using molecular simulations. This article describes results providing information not only on all 10 unique base pair steps, but also on all possible nearest-neighbor effects on these steps. These results are derived from simulations of 50–100 ns on 39 different DNA oligomers in explicit solvent and using a physiological salt concentration. We demonstrate that the simulations are converged in terms of helical and backbone parameters. The results show that nearest-neighbor effects on base pair steps are very significant, implying that dinucleotide models are insufficient for predicting sequence-dependent behavior. Flanking base sequences can notably lead to base pair step parameters in dynamic equilibrium between two conformational sub-states. Although this study only provides limited data on next-nearest-neighbor effects, we suggest that such effects should be analyzed before attempting to predict the sequence-dependent behavior of DNA. PMID:19850719

Problem solving moderates the effects of life event stress and chronic stress on suicidal behaviors in adolescence.

PubMed

Grover, Kelly E; Green, Kelly L; Pettit, Jeremy W; Monteith, Lindsey L; Garza, Monica J; Venta, Amanda

2009-12-01

The present study examined the unique and interactive effects of stress and problem-solving skills on suicidal behaviors among 102 inpatient adolescents. As expected, life event stress and chronic stress each significantly predicted suicidal ideation and suicide attempt. Problem solving significantly predicted suicidal ideation, but not suicide attempt. Problem solving moderated the associations between life event stress and suicidal behaviors, as well as between chronic stress and suicidal ideation, but not chronic stress and suicide attempt. At high levels of stress, adolescents with poor problem-solving skills experienced elevated suicidal ideation and were at greater risk of making a nonfatal suicide attempt. The interactive effects decreased to non-significance after controlling for depressive symptoms and hopelessness. Clinical implications are discussed.

Effect of horizontal curves on urban arterial crashes.

PubMed

Banihashemi, Mohamadreza

2016-10-01

The crash prediction models of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM), 2010 estimate the expected number of crashes for different facility types. Models in Part C Chapter 12 of the first edition of the HSM include crash prediction models for divided and undivided urban arterials. Each of the HSM crash prediction models for highway segments is comprised of a "Safety Performance Function," a function of AADT and segment length, plus, a series of "Crash Modification Factors" (CMFs). The SPF estimates the expected number of crashes for the site if the site features are of base condition. The effects of the other features of the site, if their values are different from base condition, are carried out through use of CMFs. The existing models for urban arterials do not have any CMF for horizontal curvature. The goal of this research is to investigate if the horizontal alignment has any significant effect on crashes on any of these types of facilities and if so, to develop a CMF for this feature. Washington State cross sectional data from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS), 2014 was used in this research. Data from 2007 to 2009 was used to conduct the investigation. The 2010 data was used to validate the results. As the results showed, the horizontal curvature has significant safety effect on two-lane undivided urban arterials with speed limits of 35 mph and higher and using a CMF for horizontal curvature in the crash prediction model of this type of facility improves the prediction of crashes significantly, for both tangent and curve segments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Effects of Psychological Inflexibility/Experiential Avoidance and Stress Coping Strategies for Internet Addiction, Significant Depression, and Suicidality in College Students: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Chou, Wei-Po; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Liu, Tai-Ling

2018-04-18

The aims of this study were to evaluate the predicting effects of psychological inflexibility/experiential avoidance (PI/EA) and stress coping strategies for Internet addiction, significant depression and suicidality among college students during the follow-up period of one year. A total of 500 college students participated in this study. The level of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were evaluated initially. One year later, 324 participants were invited to complete the Chen Internet Addiction Scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II and the questionnaire for suicidality to evaluate depression symptoms and internet addiction and suicidality. The predicting effects of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were examined by using logistic regression analysis controlling for the effects of gender and age. The results indicated that PI/EA at the initial assessment increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.087, 95% CI: 1.042–1.135), significant depression (OR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.081–1.170), and suicidality (OR = 1.099, 95% CI: 1.053–1.147) at the follow-up assessment. Less effective coping at the initial assessment also increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.011–1.140), significant depression (OR = 1.091, 95% CI: 1.037–1.147), and suicidality (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.014–1.138) at the follow-up assessment. Problem focused and emotion-focus coping at the initial assessment was not significantly associated with the risks of Internet addiction, significant depression, and suicidality at the follow-up assessment. College students who have high PI/EA or are accustomed to using less effective stress coping strategies should be the target of prevention programs for IA (internet addiction), depression, and suicidality.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2017-12-01

Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.Above results are discussed in a peer-review paper just being accepted for publication on Climate Dynamics (Alessandri et al., 2017; doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y).

Energy- and wave-based beam-tracing prediction of room-acoustical parameters using different boundary conditions.

PubMed

Yousefzadeh, Behrooz; Hodgson, Murray

2012-09-01

A beam-tracing model was used to study the acoustical responses of three empty, rectangular rooms with different boundary conditions. The model is wave-based (accounting for sound phase) and can be applied to rooms with extended-reaction surfaces that are made of multiple layers of solid, fluid, or poroelastic materials-the acoustical properties of these surfaces are calculated using Biot theory. Three room-acoustical parameters were studied in various room configurations: sound strength, reverberation time, and RApid Speech Transmission Index. The main objective was to investigate the effects of modeling surfaces as either local or extended reaction on predicted values of these three parameters. Moreover, the significance of modeling interference effects was investigated, including the study of sound phase-change on surface reflection. Modeling surfaces as of local or extended reaction was found to be significant for surfaces consisting of multiple layers, specifically when one of the layers is air. For multilayers of solid materials with an air-cavity, this was most significant around their mass-air-mass resonance frequencies. Accounting for interference effects made significant changes in the predicted values of all parameters. Modeling phase change on reflection, on the other hand, was found to be relatively much less significant.

Diallel analysis for sex-linked and maternal effects.

PubMed

Zhu, J; Weir, B S

1996-01-01

Genetic models including sex-linked and maternal effects as well as autosomal gene effects are described. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to compare efficiencies of estimation by minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation (MINQUE) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) methods. MINQUE(1), which has 1 for all prior values, has a similar efficiency to MINQUE(θ), which requires prior estimates of parameter values. MINQUE(1) has the advantage over REML of unbiased estimation and convenient computation. An adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) method is developed for predicting random genetic effects. AUP is desirable for its easy computation and unbiasedness of both mean and variance of predictors. The jackknife procedure is appropriate for estimating the sampling variances of estimated variances (or covariances) and of predicted genetic effects. A t-test based on jackknife variances is applicable for detecting significance of variation. Worked examples from mice and silkworm data are given in order to demonstrate variance and covariance estimation and genetic effect prediction.

Resting lateralized activity predicts the cortical response and appraisal of emotions: an fNIRS study.

PubMed

Balconi, Michela; Grippa, Elisabetta; Vanutelli, Maria Elide

2015-12-01

This study explored the effect of lateralized left-right resting brain activity on prefrontal cortical responsiveness to emotional cues and on the explicit appraisal (stimulus evaluation) of emotions based on their valence. Indeed subjective responses to different emotional stimuli should be predicted by brain resting activity and should be lateralized and valence-related (positive vs negative valence). A hemodynamic measure was considered (functional near-infrared spectroscopy). Indeed hemodynamic resting activity and brain response to emotional cues were registered when subjects (N = 19) viewed emotional positive vs negative stimuli (IAPS). Lateralized index response during resting state, LI (lateralized index) during emotional processing and self-assessment manikin rating were considered. Regression analysis showed the significant predictive effect of resting activity (more left or right lateralized) on both brain response and appraisal of emotional cues based on stimuli valence. Moreover, significant effects were found as a function of valence (more right response to negative stimuli; more left response to positive stimuli) during emotion processing. Therefore, resting state may be considered a predictive marker of the successive cortical responsiveness to emotions. The significance of resting condition for emotional behavior was discussed. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of nutrition and exercise health behaviors on predicted risk of cardiovascular disease among workers with different body mass index levels.

PubMed

Huang, Jui-Hua; Huang, Shu-Ling; Li, Ren-Hau; Wang, Ling-Hui; Chen, Yu-Ling; Tang, Feng-Cheng

2014-04-29

Workplace health promotion programs should be tailored according to individual needs and efficient intervention. This study aimed to determine the effects of nutrition and exercise health behaviors on predicted risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) when body mass index (BMI) is considered. In total, 3350 Taiwanese workers were included in this cross-sectional study. A self-reported questionnaire was used to measure their nutrition and exercise behaviors. Data on anthropometric values, biochemical blood determinations, and predicted CVD risk (using the Framingham risk score) were collected. In multiple regression analyses, the nutrition behavior score was independently and negatively associated with CVD risk. Exercise was not significantly associated with the risk. However, the interactive effect of exercise and BMI on CVD risk was evident. When stratified by BMI levels, associations between exercise and CVD risk were statistically significant for ideal weight and overweight subgroups. In conclusion, nutrition behavior plays an important role in predicting the CVD risk. Exercise behavior is also a significant predictor for ideal weight and overweight workers. Notably, for underweight or obese workers, maintaining health-promoting exercise seems insufficient to prevent the CVD. In order to improve workers' cardiovascular health, more specific health-promoting strategies should be developed to suit the different BMI levels.

Differential Susceptibility and the Early Development of Aggression: Interactive Effects of Respiratory Sinus Arrhythmia and Environmental Quality

PubMed Central

Eisenberg, Nancy; Sulik, Michael J.; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Edwards, Alison; Eggum, Natalie D.; Liew, Jeffrey; Sallquist, Julie; Popp, Tierney K.; Smith, Cynthia L.; Hart, Daniel

2012-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to predict the development of aggressive behavior from young children’s respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and environmental quality. In a longitudinal sample of 213 children, baseline RSA, RSA suppression in response to a film of crying babies, and a composite measure of environmental quality (incorporating socioeconomic status and marital adjustment) were measured, and parent-reported aggression was assessed from 18 to 54 months of age. Predictions based on biological sensitivity-to-context/differential susceptibility and diathesis-stress models, as well as potential moderation by child sex, were examined. The interaction of baseline RSA with environmental quality predicted the development (slope) and 54-month intercept of mothers’ reports of aggression. For girls only, the interaction between baseline RSA and environmental quality predicted the 18-month intercept of fathers’ reports. In general, significant negative relations between RSA and aggression were found primarily at high levels of environmental quality. In addition, we found a significant Sex × RSA interaction predicting the slope and 54-month intercept of fathers’ reports of aggression, such that RSA was negatively related to aggression for boys but not for girls. Contrary to predictions, no significant main effects or interactions were found for RSA suppression. The results provide mixed but not full support for differential susceptibility theory and provide little support for the diathesis-stress model. PMID:22182294

Quantum plasmonics: optical properties of a nanomatryushka.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Vikram; Prodan, Emil; Nordlander, Peter

2013-01-01

Quantum mechanical effects can significantly reduce the plasmon-induced field enhancements around nanoparticles. Here we present a quantum mechanical investigation of the plasmon resonances in a nanomatryushka, which is a concentric core-shell nanoparticle consisting of a solid metallic core encapsulated in a thin metallic shell. We compute the optical response using the time-dependent density functional theory and compare the results with predictions based on the classical electromagnetic theory. We find strong quantum mechanical effects for core-shell spacings below 5 Å, a regime where both the absorption cross section and the local field enhancements differ significantly from the classical predictions. We also show that the workfunction of the metal is a crucial parameter determining the onset and magnitude of quantum effects. For metals with lower workfunctions such as aluminum, the quantum effects are found to be significantly more pronounced than for a noble metal such as gold.

The Relationship Among Sexual Attitudes, Sexual Fantasy, and Religiosity

PubMed Central

Ahrold, Tierney K.; Farmer, Melissa; Trapnell, Paul D.; Meston, Cindy M.

2015-01-01

Recent research on the impact of religiosity on sexuality has highlighted the role of the individual, and suggests that the effects of religious group and sexual attitudes and fantasy may be mediated through individual differences in spirituality. The present study investigated the role of religion in an ethnically diverse young adult sample (N = 1413, 69% women) using religious group as well as several religiosity domains: spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, paranormal beliefs, and fundamentalism. Differences between religious groups in conservative sexual attitudes were statistically significant but small; as predicted, spirituality mediated these effects. In contrast to the weak effects of religious group, spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, and fundamentalism were strong predictors of women’s conservative sexual attitudes; for men, intrinsic religiosity predicted sexual attitude conservatism but spirituality predicted attitudinal liberalism. For women, both religious group and religiosity domains were significant predictors of frequency of sexual fantasies while, for men, only religiosity domains were significant predictors. These results indicate that individual differences in religiosity domains were better predictors of sexual attitudes and fantasy than religious group and that these associations are moderated by gender. PMID:20364304

Predicting the effect of disability on employment status and income.

PubMed

Randolph, Diane Smith

2004-01-01

Research shows that participation in employment contributes to life satisfaction for persons with disabilities [18]. Title I of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) sought to prohibit discrimination against persons with disabilities in the workplace, however, the ADA's effectiveness remains controversial. This research utilizes data from the disability supplement of the 2000 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to examine the impact of disability status on predicting employment status and income. Confounding variables such as gender, age, educational level, race and marital/parental status are examined regarding their influence on results. Results from analysis utilizing zero-order correlation, linear and logistic regression analysis techniques revealed that disability status has a significant predictive effect on inability to work. Furthermore, results continue to show that despite legislation, the higher the level of disability, the lower the employment status (those employed for wages) and income. Finally, disability status, coupled with being female or decreased educational level, consistently shows significance in predicting lower employment status and income than men or non-minorities with disabilities. Future research opportunities and policy implications are discussed with regard to the results presented.

Does trait affectivity predict work-to-family conflict and enrichment beyond job characteristics?

PubMed

Tement, Sara; Korunka, Christian

2013-01-01

The present study examines whether negative and positive affectivity (NA and PA, respectively) predict different forms of work-to-family conflict (WFC-time, WFC-strain, WFC-behavior) and enrichment (WFE-development, WFE-affect, WFE-capital) beyond job characteristics (workload, autonomy, variety, workplace support). Furthermore, interactions between job characteristics and trait affectivity while predicting WFC and WFE were examined. Using a large sample of Slovenian employees (N = 738), NA and PA were found to explain variance in WFC as well as in WFE above and beyond job characteristics. More precisely, NA significantly predicted WFC, whereas PA significantly predicted WFE. In addition, several interactive effects were found to predict forms of WFC and WFE. These results highlight the importance of trait affectivity in work-family research. They provide further support for the crucial impact of job characteristics as well.

Predicting when biliary excretion of parent drug is a major route of elimination in humans.

PubMed

Hosey, Chelsea M; Broccatelli, Fabio; Benet, Leslie Z

2014-09-01

Biliary excretion is an important route of elimination for many drugs, yet measuring the extent of biliary elimination is difficult, invasive, and variable. Biliary elimination has been quantified for few drugs with a limited number of subjects, who are often diseased patients. An accurate prediction of which drugs or new molecular entities are significantly eliminated in the bile may predict potential drug-drug interactions, pharmacokinetics, and toxicities. The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) characterizes significant routes of drug elimination, identifies potential transporter effects, and is useful in understanding drug-drug interactions. Class 1 and 2 drugs are primarily eliminated in humans via metabolism and will not exhibit significant biliary excretion of parent compound. In contrast, class 3 and 4 drugs are primarily excreted unchanged in the urine or bile. Here, we characterize the significant elimination route of 105 orally administered class 3 and 4 drugs. We introduce and validate a novel model, predicting significant biliary elimination using a simple classification scheme. The model is accurate for 83% of 30 drugs collected after model development. The model corroborates the observation that biliarily eliminated drugs have high molecular weights, while demonstrating the necessity of considering route of administration and extent of metabolism when predicting biliary excretion. Interestingly, a predictor of potential metabolism significantly improves predictions of major elimination routes of poorly metabolized drugs. This model successfully predicts the major elimination route for poorly permeable/poorly metabolized drugs and may be applied prior to human dosing.

The development of a model to predict BW gain of growing cattle fed grass silage-based diets.

PubMed

Huuskonen, A; Huhtanen, P

2015-08-01

The objective of this meta-analysis was to develop and validate empirical equations predicting BW gain (BWG) and carcass traits of growing cattle from intake and diet composition variables. The modelling was based on treatment mean data from feeding trials in growing cattle, in which the nutrient supply was manipulated by wide ranges of forage and concentrate factors. The final dataset comprised 527 diets in 116 studies. The diets were mainly based on grass silage or grass silage partly or completely replaced by whole-crop silages, hay or straw. The concentrate feeds consisted of cereal grains, fibrous by-products and protein supplements. Mixed model regression analysis with a random study effect was used to develop prediction equations for BWG and carcass traits. The best-fit models included linear and quadratic effects of metabolisable energy (ME) intake per metabolic BW (BW0.75), linear effects of BW0.75, and dietary concentrations of NDF, fat and feed metabolisable protein (MP) as significant variables. Although diet variables had significant effects on BWG, their contribution to improve the model predictions compared with ME intake models was small. Feed MP rather than total MP was included in the final model, since it is less correlated to dietary ME concentration than total MP. None of the quadratic terms of feed variables was significant (P>0.10) when included in the final models. Further, additional feed variables (e.g. silage fermentation products, forage digestibility) did not have significant effects on BWG. For carcass traits, increased ME intake (ME/BW0.75) improved both dressing proportion (P0.10) effect on dressing proportion or carcass conformation score, but it increased (P<0.01) carcass fat score. The current study demonstrated that ME intake per BW0.75 was clearly the most important variable explaining the BWG response in growing cattle. The effect of increased ME supply displayed diminishing responses that could be associated with increased energy concentration of BWG, reduced diet metabolisability (proportion of ME of gross energy) and/or decreased efficiency of ME utilisation for growth with increased intake. Negative effects of increased dietary NDF concentration on BWG were smaller compared to responses that energy evaluation systems predict for energy retention. The present results showed only marginal effects of protein supply on BWG in growing cattle.

Child and Interviewer Race in Forensic Interviewing.

PubMed

Fisher, Amy K; Mackey, Tomiko D; Langendoen, Carol; Barnard, Marie

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the potential effect of child race and interviewer race on forensic interviewing outcomes. The results of the regression analysis indicated that child race and interviewer race had a significant effect on interview outcome category (no findings, inconclusive, or findings consistent with sexual abuse). Furthermore, the results indicate that the interaction of child and interviewer race had predictive value for rates of findings consistent with sexual abuse but not in the direction predicted. Cross-race dyads had significantly higher rates of interview outcomes consistent with sexual abuse. These findings suggest that more research into the effect of race on disclosure of child sexual abuse is needed.

The role of model errors represented by nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" within ENSO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Wansuo; Zhao, Peng

2017-04-01

Within the Zebiak-Cane model, the nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach is used to investigate the role of model errors in the "Spring Predictability Barrier" (SPB) phenomenon within ENSO predictions. NFSV-related errors have the largest negative effect on the uncertainties of El Niño predictions. NFSV errors can be classified into two types: the first is characterized by a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies (SSTA), with the western poles centered in the equatorial central-western Pacific exhibiting positive anomalies and the eastern poles in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibiting negative anomalies; and the second is characterized by a pattern almost opposite the first type. The first type of error tends to have the worst effects on El Niño growth-phase predictions, whereas the latter often yields the largest negative effects on decaying-phase predictions. The evolution of prediction errors caused by NFSV-related errors exhibits prominent seasonality, with the fastest error growth in the spring and/or summer seasons; hence, these errors result in a significant SPB related to El Niño events. The linear counterpart of NFSVs, the (linear) forcing singular vector (FSV), induces a less significant SPB because it contains smaller prediction errors. Random errors cannot generate a SPB for El Niño events. These results show that the occurrence of an SPB is related to the spatial patterns of tendency errors. The NFSV tendency errors cause the most significant SPB for El Niño events. In addition, NFSVs often concentrate these large value errors in a few areas within the equatorial eastern and central-western Pacific, which likely represent those areas sensitive to El Niño predictions associated with model errors. Meanwhile, these areas are also exactly consistent with the sensitive areas related to initial errors determined by previous studies. This implies that additional observations in the sensitive areas would not only improve the accuracy of the initial field but also promote the reduction of model errors to greatly improve ENSO forecasts.

Effect of menopause, anthropometry, nutrition and lifestyle on bone status of women in the northern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Pavicic Zezelj, S; Cvijanovic, O; Micovic, V; Bobinac, D; Crncevic-Orlic, Z; Malatestinic, G

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the influence of age, menopause, anthropometry, nutrition and lifestyle on bone status of women of the Northern Mediterranean Region ofCroatia, which is considered the Adriatic Coast of Southeast Europe. Quantitative ultrasound measurement was performed on the women's right heel and the values of the primary parameters (the Broad Ultrasonic Attenuation and the Speed of Sound [BUA and SOS]) were obtained. Dietary data were assessed with specially designed semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis was employed to examine the influence of age and anthropometry, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors on BUA and SOS. In all female subjects, both primary parameters were predicted by menopause. Among nutrition and lifestyle factors, carbohydrates were significant predictors for BUA (beta = -0.151, p < 0.05), and smoking is significant predictor for SOS (beta = -0.113, p < 0.05). In premenopausal women, BUA is significantly predicted by body height (beta = 0.71, p < 0.05) and body mass index (beta = 1.44, p < 0.05). In postmenopausal women, both primary parameters are strongly predicted by age and anthropometric parameters. Besides, SOS is significantly predicted by smoking (beta = -0.18, p < 0.01) and alcohol (beta = -0.13, p < 0.05). Besides, SOS is significantly predicted by smoking (beta = -0.18, p < 0.01) and alcohol (beta = -0.13, p < 0.05). Bone quality in women from the Croatian Mediterranean Region mostly depends on their hormonal status. When the effect of menopause is controlled, bone status becomes dependent on age and anthropometry.

Suppressor Effects of Positive and Negative Religious Coping on Academic Burnout Among Korean Middle School Students.

PubMed

Noh, Hyunkyung; Chang, Eunbi; Jang, Yoojin; Lee, Ji Hae; Lee, Sang Min

2016-02-01

Statistical suppressor effects in prediction models can provide evidence of the interdependent relationship of independent variables. In this study, the suppressor effects of positive and negative religious coping on academic burnout were examined using longitudinal data. First, 388 middle school students reported their type of religion and use of positive and negative religious coping strategies. Four months later, they also reported their level of academic burnout. From structural equation modeling, significant suppressor effects were found among religious students. That is, the coefficients became larger when both positive and negative religious coping predicted academic burnout simultaneously, compared to when each religious coping predicted academic burnout alone. However, suppressor effects were not found among non-religious students.

NASA Lewis Stirling engine computer code evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Timothy J.

1989-01-01

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Stirling Engine Highway Vehicle Systems program, the NASA Lewis Stirling engine performance code was evaluated by comparing code predictions without engine-specific calibration factors to GPU-3, P-40, and RE-1000 Stirling engine test data. The error in predicting power output was -11 percent for the P-40 and 12 percent for the Re-1000 at design conditions and 16 percent for the GPU-3 at near-design conditions (2000 rpm engine speed versus 3000 rpm at design). The efficiency and heat input predictions showed better agreement with engine test data than did the power predictions. Concerning all data points, the error in predicting the GPU-3 brake power was significantly larger than for the other engines and was mainly a result of inaccuracy in predicting the pressure phase angle. Analysis into this pressure phase angle prediction error suggested that improvements to the cylinder hysteresis loss model could have a significant effect on overall Stirling engine performance predictions.

Effect of foam on temperature prediction and heat recovery potential from biological wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Corbala-Robles, L; Volcke, E I P; Samijn, A; Ronsse, F; Pieters, J G

2016-05-15

Heat is an important resource in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) which can be recovered. A prerequisite to determine the theoretical heat recovery potential is an accurate heat balance model for temperature prediction. The insulating effect of foam present on the basin surface and its influence on temperature prediction were assessed in this study. Experiments were carried out to characterize the foam layer and its insulating properties. A refined dynamic temperature prediction model, taking into account the effect of foam, was set up. Simulation studies for a WWTP treating highly concentrated (manure) wastewater revealed that the foam layer had a significant effect on temperature prediction (3.8 ± 0.7 K over the year) and thus on the theoretical heat recovery potential (30% reduction when foam is not considered). Seasonal effects on the individual heat losses and heat gains were assessed. Additionally, the effects of the critical basin temperature above which heat is recovered, foam thickness, surface evaporation rate reduction and the non-absorbed solar radiation on the theoretical heat recovery potential were evaluated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical optics for oven-plate scattering prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldauf, J.; Lambert, K.

1991-01-01

An oven assembly design is described, which will be used to determine the effects of temperature on the electrical properties of materials which are used as coatings for metal plates. Experimentally, these plates will be heated to a very high temperature in the oven assembly, and measured using a microwave reflectance measurement system developed for the NASA Lewis Research Center, Near-Field Facility. One unknown in this measurement is the effect that the oven assembly will have on the reflectance properties of the plate. Since the oven will be much larger than the plate, the effect could potentially be significant as the size of the plate becomes smaller. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the effect of the oven on the measurement of the plate. A method for predicting the oven effect is described, and the theoretical oven effect is compared to experimental results of the oven material. The computer code which is used to predict the oven effect is also described.

Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

1994-01-01

We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

Prediction of high frequency combustion instability in liquid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Y. M.; Chen, C. P.; Ziebarth, J. P.; Chen, Y. S.

1992-01-01

The present use of a numerical model developed for the prediction of high-frequency combustion stabilities in liquid propellant rocket engines focuses on (1) the overall behavior of nonlinear combustion instabilities (2) the effects of acoustic oscillations on the fuel-droplet vaporization and combustion process in stable and unstable engine operating conditions, oscillating flowfields, and liquid-fuel trajectories during combustion instability, and (3) the effects of such design parameters as inlet boundary conditions, initial spray conditions, and baffle length. The numerical model has yielded predictions of the tangential-mode combustion instability; baffle length and droplet size variations are noted to have significant effects on engine stability.

Prediction of health effects of cross-border atmospheric pollutants using an aerosol forecast model.

PubMed

Onishi, Kazunari; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi Thomas; Nojima, Masanori; Kurosaki, Yasunori; Fujitani, Yusuke; Otani, Shinji; Maki, Takashi; Shinoda, Masato; Kurozawa, Youichi; Yamagata, Zentaro

2018-08-01

Health effects of cross-border air pollutants and Asian dust are of significant concern in Japan. Currently, models predicting the arrival of aerosols have not investigated the association between arrival predictions and health effects. We investigated the association between subjective health symptoms and unreleased aerosol data from the Model of Aerosol Species in the Global Atmosphere (MASINGAR) acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency, with the objective of ascertaining if these data could be applied to predicting health effects. Subjective symptom scores were collected via self-administered questionnaires and, along with modeled surface aerosol concentration data, were used to conduct a risk evaluation using generalized estimating equations between October and November 2011. Altogether, 29 individuals provided 1670 responses. Spearman's correlation coefficients were determined for the relationship between the proportion of the participants reporting the maximum score of two or more for each symptom and the surface concentrations for each considered aerosol species calculated using MASINGAR; the coefficients showed significant intermediate correlations between surface sulfate aerosol concentration and respiratory, throat, and fever symptoms (R = 0.557, 0.454, and 0.470, respectively; p < 0.01). In the general estimation equation (logit link) analyses, a significant linear association of surface sulfate aerosol concentration, with an endpoint determined by reported respiratory symptom scores of two or more, was observed (P trend = 0.001, odds ratio [OR] of the highest quartile [Q4] vs. the lowest [Q1] = 5.31, 95% CI = 2.18 to 12.96), with adjustment for potential confounding. The surface sulfate aerosol concentration was also associated with throat and fever symptoms. In conclusion, our findings suggest that modeled data are potentially useful for predicting health risks of cross-border aerosol arrivals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term Effects of Parents' Education on Children's Educational and Occupational Success: Mediation by Family Interactions, Child Aggression, and Teenage Aspirations.

PubMed

Dubow, Eric F; Boxer, Paul; Huesmann, L Rowell

2009-07-01

We examine the prediction of individuals' educational and occupational success at age 48 from contextual and personal variables assessed during their middle childhood and late adolescence. We focus particularly on the predictive role of the parents' educational level during middle childhood, controlling for other indices of socioeconomic status and children's IQ, and the mediating roles of negative family interactions, childhood behavior, and late adolescent aspirations. Data come from the Columbia County Longitudinal Study, which began in 1960 when all 856 third graders in a semi-rural county in New York State were interviewed along with their parents; participants were reinterviewed at ages 19, 30, and 48 (Eron et al, 1971; Huesmann et al., 2002). Parents' educational level when the child was 8 years old significantly predicted educational and occupational success for the child 40 years later. Structural models showed that parental educational level had no direct effects on child educational level or occupational prestige at age 48 but had significant indirect effects that were independent of the other predictor variables' effects. These indirect effects were mediated through age 19 educational aspirations and age 19 educational level. These results provide strong support for the unique predictive role of parental education on adult outcomes 40 years later and underscore the developmental importance of mediators of parent education effects such as late adolescent achievement and achievement-related aspirations.

Application of a Fuzzy Neural Network Model in Predicting Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon- Mediated Perturbations of the Cyp1b1 Transcriptional Regulatory Network in Mouse Skin

PubMed Central

Larkin, Andrew; Siddens, Lisbeth K.; Krueger, Sharon K.; Tilton, Susan C.; Waters, Katrina M.; Williams, David E.; Baird, William M.

2013-01-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are present in the environment as complex mixtures with components that have diverse carcinogenic potencies and mostly unknown interactive effects. Non-additive PAH interactions have been observed in regulation of cytochrome P450 (CYP) gene expression in the CYP1 family. To better understand and predict biological effects of complex mixtures, such as environmental PAHs, an 11 gene input-1 gene output fuzzy neural network (FNN) was developed for predicting PAH-mediated perturbations of dermal Cyp1b1 transcription in mice. Input values were generalized using fuzzy logic into low, medium, and high fuzzy subsets, and sorted using k-means clustering to create Mamdani logic functions for predicting Cyp1b1 mRNA expression. Model testing was performed with data from microarray analysis of skin samples from FVB/N mice treated with toluene (vehicle control), dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), or 1 of 3 combinations of diesel particulate extract (DPE), coal tar extract (CTE) and cigarette smoke condensate (CSC) using leave one out cross-validation. Predictions were within 1 log2 fold change unit of microarray data, with the exception of the DBC treatment group, where the unexpected down-regulation of Cyp1b1 expression was predicted but did not reach statistical significance on the microarrays. Adding CTE to DPE was predicted to increase Cyp1b1 expression, whereas adding CSC to CTE and DPE was predicted to have no effect, in agreement with microarray results. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor (Ahrr) was determined to be the most significant input variable for model predictions using back-propagation and normalization of FNN weights. PMID:23274566

New particle formation and growth in biomass burning plumes: An important source of cloud condensation nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennigan, Christopher J.; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Riipinen, Ilona; Engelhart, Gabriella J.; Lee, Taehyoung; Collett, Jeffrey L., Jr.; Pandis, Spyros N.; Adams, Peter J.; Robinson, Allen L.

2012-05-01

Experiments were performed in an environmental chamber to characterize the effects of photo-chemical aging on biomass burning emissions. Photo-oxidation of dilute exhaust from combustion of 12 different North American fuels induced significant new particle formation that increased the particle number concentration by a factor of four (median value). The production of secondary organic aerosol caused these new particles to grow rapidly, significantly enhancing cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Using inputs derived from these new data, global model simulations predict that nucleation in photo-chemically aging fire plumes produces dramatically higher CCN concentrations over widespread areas of the southern hemisphere during the dry, burning season (Sept.-Oct.), improving model predictions of surface CCN concentrations. The annual indirect forcing from CCN resulting from nucleation and growth in biomass burning plumes is predicted to be -0.2 W m-2, demonstrating that this effect has a significant impact on climate that has not been previously considered.

Coercive and prosocial fathering, antisocial personality, and growth in children's postdivorce noncompliance.

PubMed

DeGarmo, David Scott

2010-01-01

To better understand quantity and quality of divorced father contact, a weighted county sample of 230 divorced fathers with a child aged 4-11 years was employed to test whether fathers' antisocial personality (ASP) moderated effects of monthly contact with children in predicting children's observed noncompliance. Eighteen-month latent growth models obtained significant individual differences in levels of noncompliance and growth rates. ASP significantly moderated beneficial impact of fathers' monthly contact. Fathers' observed parenting practices significantly predicted noncompliance levels but not growth. Parenting did not account for the effect of Contact x ASP, suggesting both environmental and potentially genetic influences on child adjustment. Findings were robust across boys and girls and age levels. Implications for preventive intervention are discussed.

Does Classification of Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorder Patients Into Psychosocial Subgroups Predict Differential Treatment Responsiveness and 1-Year Outcomes After a Functional Restoration Program?

PubMed

Asih, Sali; Mayer, Tom G; Williams, Mark; Choi, Yun Hee; Gatchel, Robert J

2015-12-01

The objectives of this study: (1) to assess whether Multidimensional Pain Inventory (MPI) profiles predicted differential responses to a functional restoration program (FRP) in chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorder (CDOMD) patients; (2) to examine whether coping style improves following FRP; and (3) to determine whether discharge MPI profiles predict discharge psychosocial and 1-year socioeconomic outcomes. Consecutive CDOMD patients (N=716) were classified into Adaptive Coper (AC, n=209), Interpersonally Distressed (ID, n=154), Dysfunctional (DYS, n=310), and Anomalous (n=43) using the MPI, and reclassified at discharge. Profiles were compared on psychosocial measures and 1-year socioeconomic outcomes. An intent-to-treat sample analyzed the effect of drop-outs on treatment responsiveness. The MPI classification significantly predicted program completion (P=0.001), although the intent-to-treat analyses found no significant effects of drop-out on treatment responsiveness. There was a significant increase in the number of patients who became AC or Anomalous at FRP discharge and a decrease in those who were ID or DYS. Patients who changed or remained as DYS at FRP discharge reported the highest levels of pain, disability, and depression. No significant interaction effect was found between MPI group and time for pain intensity or disability. All groups improved on psychosocial measures at discharge. DYS patients had decreased work retention and a greater health care utilization at 1 year. An FRP was clinically effective for CDOMD patients regardless of initial MPI profiles. The FRP modified profiles, with patients changing from negative to positive profiles. Discharge DYS were more likely to have poor 1-year outcomes. Those classified as Anomalous had a good prognosis for functional recovery similar to ACs.

Behavior and neuroimaging at baseline predict individual response to combined mathematical and working memory training in children.

PubMed

Nemmi, Federico; Helander, Elin; Helenius, Ola; Almeida, Rita; Hassler, Martin; Räsänen, Pekka; Klingberg, Torkel

2016-08-01

Mathematical performance is highly correlated with several general cognitive abilities, including working memory (WM) capacity. Here we investigated the effect of numerical training using a number-line (NLT), WM training (WMT), or the combination of the two on a composite score of mathematical ability. The aim was to investigate if the combination contributed to the outcome, and determine if baseline performance or neuroimaging predict the magnitude of improvement. We randomly assigned 308, 6-year-old children to WMT, NLT, WMT+NLT or a control intervention. Overall, there was a significant effect of NLT but not WMT. The WMT+NLT was the only group that improved significantly more than the controls, although the interaction NLTxWM was non-significant. Higher WM and maths performance predicted larger benefits for WMT and NLT, respectively. Neuroimaging at baseline also contributed significant information about training gain. Different individuals showed as much as a three-fold difference in their responses to the same intervention. These results show that the impact of an intervention is highly dependent on individual characteristics of the child. If differences in responses could be used to optimize the intervention for each child, future interventions could be substantially more effective. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Brave New World?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Botstein, Leon

2001-01-01

Do the "new economy" and "information age" really exist? Effects of the railroad and telephone fell far short of those predicted. The psychology of human behavior may not have changed much. One must maintain a healthy skepticism about predictions concerning any new technology's influence and long-range significance. (MLH)

Apparent competition drives community-wide parasitism rates and changes in host abundance across ecosystem boundaries

PubMed Central

Frost, Carol M.; Peralta, Guadalupe; Rand, Tatyana A.; Didham, Raphael K.; Varsani, Arvind; Tylianakis, Jason M.

2016-01-01

Species have strong indirect effects on others, and predicting these effects is a central challenge in ecology. Prey species sharing an enemy (predator or parasitoid) can be linked by apparent competition, but it is unknown whether this process is strong enough to be a community-wide structuring mechanism that could be used to predict future states of diverse food webs. Whether species abundances are spatially coupled by enemy movement across different habitats is also untested. Here, using a field experiment, we show that predicted apparent competitive effects between species, mediated via shared parasitoids, can significantly explain future parasitism rates and herbivore abundances. These predictions are successful even across edges between natural and managed forests, following experimental reduction of herbivore densities by aerial spraying of insecticide over 20 hectares. This result shows that trophic indirect effects propagate across networks and habitats in important, predictable ways, with implications for landscape planning, invasion biology and biological control. PMID:27577948

The combined effects of self-referent information processing and ruminative responses on adolescent depression.

PubMed

Black, Stephanie Winkeljohn; Pössel, Patrick

2013-08-01

Adolescents who develop depression have worse interpersonal and affective experiences and are more likely to develop substance problems and/or suicidal ideation compared to adolescents who do not develop depression. This study examined the combined effects of negative self-referent information processing and rumination (i.e., brooding and reflection) on adolescent depressive symptoms. It was hypothesized that the interaction of negative self-referent information processing and brooding would significantly predict depressive symptoms, while the interaction of negative self-referent information processing and reflection would not predict depressive symptoms. Adolescents (n = 92; 13-15 years; 34.7% female) participated in a 6-month longitudinal study. Self-report instruments measured depressive symptoms and rumination; a cognitive task measured information processing. Path modelling in Amos 19.0 analyzed the data. The interaction of negative information processing and brooding significantly predicted an increase in depressive symptoms 6 months later. The interaction of negative information processing and reflection did not significantly predict depression, however, the model not meet a priori standards to accept the null hypothesis. Results suggest clinicians working with adolescents at-risk for depression should consider focusing on the reduction of brooding and negative information processing to reduce long-term depressive symptoms.

Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes.

PubMed

Iniesta, Raquel; Malki, Karim; Maier, Wolfgang; Rietschel, Marcella; Mors, Ole; Hauser, Joanna; Henigsberg, Neven; Dernovsek, Mojca Zvezdana; Souery, Daniel; Stahl, Daniel; Dobson, Richard; Aitchison, Katherine J; Farmer, Anne; Lewis, Cathryn M; McGuffin, Peter; Uher, Rudolf

2016-07-01

The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remission during treatment with escitalopram or nortriptyline and to identify contributing predictors from a range of demographic and clinical variables in 793 adults with major depressive disorder. A combination of demographic and clinical variables, with strong contributions from symptoms of depressed mood, reduced interest, decreased activity, indecisiveness, pessimism and anxiety significantly predicted treatment outcomes, explaining 5-10% of variance in symptom improvement with escitalopram. Similar combinations of variables predicted remission with area under the curve 0.72, explaining approximately 15% of variance (pseudo R(2)) in who achieves remission, with strong contributions from body mass index, appetite, interest-activity symptom dimension and anxious-somatizing depression subtype. Escitalopram-specific outcome prediction was more accurate than generic outcome prediction, and reached effect sizes that were near or above a previously established benchmark for clinical significance. Outcome prediction on the nortriptyline arm did not significantly differ from chance. These results suggest that easily obtained demographic and clinical variables can predict therapeutic response to escitalopram with clinically meaningful accuracy, suggesting a potential for individualized prescription of this antidepressant drug. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Profile of capillary bridges between two vertically stacked cylindrical fibers under gravitational effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaohang; Lee, Hoon Joo; Michielsen, Stephen; Wilusz, Eugene

2018-05-01

Although profiles of axisymmetric capillary bridges between two cylindrical fibers have been extensively studied, little research has been reported on capillary bridges under external forces such as the gravitational force. This is because external forces add significant complications to the Laplace-Young equation, making it difficult to predict drop profiles based on analytical approaches. In this paper, simulations of capillary bridges between two vertically stacked cylindrical fibers with gravitational effect taken into consideration are studied. The asymmetrical structure of capillary bridges that are hard to predict based on analytical approaches was studied via a numerical approach based on Surface Evolver (SE). The axial and the circumferential spreading of liquids on two identical fibers in the presence of gravitational effects are predicted to determine when the gravitational effects are significant or can be neglected. The effect of liquid volume, equilibrium contact angle, the distance between two fibers and fiber radii. The simulation results were verified by comparing them with experimental measurements. Based on SE simulations, curves representing the spreading of capillary bridges along the two cylindrical fibers were obtained. The gravitational effect was scaled based on the difference of the spreading on upper and lower fibers.

Sibling cooperative and externalizing behaviors in families raising children with disabilities.

PubMed

Platt, Christine; Roper, Susanne Olsen; Mandleco, Barbara; Freeborn, Donna

2014-01-01

Raising a child with a disability (CWD) in the home is increasing across the globe. Because of caregiver burden and the complexity of care, there is growing concern for typically developing sibling (TDS) outcomes. The aim of the study was to examine whether caregiver burden, parenting style, and sibling relationships in families raising a CWD are associated with cooperative and externalizing behaviors in TDS. This correlational study included 189 families raising both a CWD and a TDS. Multilevel modeling was used to identify which variables were most predictive of TDS outcomes and if there were parent gender effects. Authoritative parenting was positively associated with cooperative behaviors. Authoritarian parenting was positively associated with externalizing behaviors. Multilevel modeling revealed caregiver burden was a significant predictor of sibling behaviors in the first model. When parenting style was added as a predictor, it was also significant. When sibling relationships were added as predictors, they were significant predictors for both cooperative and externalizing TDS behaviors; however, caregiver burden was no longer significant. Authoritarian parenting significantly predicted externalizing behaviors, and authoritative parenting was significantly related to cooperative behaviors. In families raising a CWD, positive sibling relationships may help negate the effects of caregiver burden and are more predictive of TDS outcomes than some parenting practices.

Effects of Stressor Predictability and Controllability on Sleep, Temperature, and Fear Behavior in Mice

PubMed Central

Yang, Linghui; Wellman, Laurie L.; Ambrozewicz, Marta A.; Sanford, Larry D.

2011-01-01

Study Objectives: Predictability and controllability are important factors in the persisting effects of stress. We trained mice with signaled, escapable shock (SES) and with signaled, inescapable shock (SIS) to determine whether shock predictability can be a significant factor in the effects of stress on sleep. Design: Male BALB/cJ mice were implanted with transmitters for recording EEG, activity, and temperature via telemetry. After recovery from surgery, baseline sleep recordings were obtained for 2 days. The mice were then randomly assigned to SES (n = 9) and yoked SIS (n = 9) conditions. The mice were presented cues (90 dB, 2 kHz tones) that started 5.0 sec prior to and co-terminated with footshocks (0.5 mA; 5.0 sec maximum duration). SES mice always received shock but could terminate it by moving to the non-occupied chamber in a shuttlebox. SIS mice received identical tones and shocks, but could not alter shock duration. Twenty cue-shock pairings (1.0-min interstimulus intervals) were presented on 2 days (ST1 and ST2). Seven days after ST2, SES and SIS mice, in their home cages, were presented with cues identical to those presented during ST1 and ST2. Setting: NA. Patients or Participants: NA. Interventions: NA. Measurements and Results: On each training and test day, EEG, activity and temperature were recorded for 20 hours. Freezing was scored in response to the cue alone. Compared to SIS mice, SES mice showed significantly increased REM after ST1 and ST2. Compared to SES mice, SIS mice showed significantly increased NREM after ST1 and ST2. Both groups showed reduced REM in response to cue presentation alone. Both groups showed similar stress-induced increases in temperature and freezing in response to the cue alone. Conclusions: These findings indicate that predictability (modeled by signaled shock) can play a significant role in the effects of stress on sleep. Citation: Yang L; Wellman LL; Ambrozewicz MA; Sanford LD. Effects of stressor predictability and controllability on sleep, temperature, and fear behavior in mice. SLEEP 2011;34(6):759-771. PMID:21629364

The Effect of Information Level on Human-Agent Interaction for Route Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

χ2 (4, 60) = 11.41, p = 0.022, and Cramer’s V = 0.308, indicating there was no effect of experiment on posttest trust. Pretest trust was not a...decision time by pretest trust group membership. Bars denote standard error (SE). DT at DP was evaluated to see if it predicted posttest trust...0.007, Cramer’s V = 0.344, indicating there was no effect of experiment on posttest trust. Pretest trust was not a significant prediction of total DT

Effectiveness of bomber deployed autonomous airborne vehicles in finding rail mobile SS-24s

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abey, A.E.; Erickson, S.A.; Norquist, P.D.

1990-08-01

Computer simulation predictions of the effectiveness of autonomous airborne vehicles in finding rail mobile SS-24s are presented. Effectiveness is discussed for several autonomous airborne vehicle endurances and survivabilities for the search area southwest of Moscow. The effect of where the Soviets place the SS-24s on the rail network was also investigated. The simulation predicts significant variations in the ability of a multi-autonomous airborne vehicle system to find SS-24s with these parameters. 12 figs., 1 tab.

Interacting stressors and the potential for adaptation in a changing world: responses of populations and individuals

PubMed Central

French, Susannah S.; Brodie, Edmund D.

2017-01-01

To accurately predict the impact of environmental change, it is necessary to assay effects of key interacting stressors on vulnerable organisms, and the potential resiliency of their populations. Yet, for the most part, these critical data are missing. We examined the effects of two common abiotic stressors predicted to interact with climate change, salinity and temperature, on the embryonic survival and development of a model freshwater vertebrate, the rough-skinned newt (Taricha granulosa) from different populations. We found that salinity and temperature significantly interacted to affect newt embryonic survival and development, with the negative effects of salinity most pronounced at temperature extremes. We also found significant variation among, and especially within, populations, with different females varying in the performance of their eggs at different salinity–temperature combinations, possibly providing the raw material for future natural selection. Our results highlight the complex nature of predicting responses to climate change in space and time, and provide critical data towards that aim. PMID:28680662

Positive life events predict salivary cortisol in pregnant women.

PubMed

Pluess, Michael; Wurmser, Harald; Buske-Kirschbaum, Angelika; Papousek, Mechthild; Pirke, Karl-Martin; Hellhammer, Dirk; Bolten, Margarete

2012-08-01

Maternal stress during pregnancy has been repeatedly associated with problematic child development. According to the fetal programming hypothesis adverse experiences during pregnancy increase maternal cortisol, which is then assumed to exert a negative effect on fetal development. Recent studies in non-pregnant women report significant associations between positive emotionality and low cortisol levels. We tested in a sample of 60 pregnant women whether both negative and positive life events independently predicted third-trimester baseline awakening cortisol levels. While the effect of negative life events proved unrelated positive life events significantly predicted lower cortisol levels. These findings suggest that positive experiences are of relevance regarding maternal morning cortisol levels in pregnancy reflecting a resource with potentially beneficial effects for the mother and the developing fetus. It might be promising for psychological intervention programs to focus on increasing positive experiences of the expecting mother rather than exclusively trying to reduce maternal stress during pregnancy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional Connectivity of Child and Adolescent Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Patients: Correlation with IQ.

PubMed

Park, Bo-Yong; Hong, Jisu; Lee, Seung-Hak; Park, Hyunjin

2016-01-01

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a pervasive neuropsychological disorder that affects both children and adolescents. Child and adolescent ADHD patients exhibit different behavioral symptoms such as hyperactivity and impulsivity, but not much connectivity research exists to help explain these differences. We analyzed openly accessible resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data on 112 patients (28 child ADHD, 28 adolescent ADHD, 28 child normal control (NC), and 28 adolescent NC). We used group independent component analysis (ICA) and weighted degree values to identify interaction effects of age (child and adolescent) and symptom (ADHD and NC) in brain networks. The frontoparietal network showed significant interaction effects ( p = 0.0068). The frontoparietal network is known to be related to hyperactive and impulsive behaviors. Intelligence quotient (IQ) is an important factor in ADHD, and we predicted IQ scores using the results of our connectivity analysis. IQ was predicted using degree centrality values of networks with significant interaction effects of age and symptom. Actual and predicted IQ scores demonstrated significant correlation values, with an error of about 10%. Our study might provide imaging biomarkers for future ADHD and intelligence studies.

Variation of surface ozone in Campo Grande, Brazil: meteorological effect analysis and prediction.

PubMed

Pires, J C M; Souza, A; Pavão, H G; Martins, F G

2014-09-01

The effect of meteorological variables on surface ozone (O3) concentrations was analysed based on temporal variation of linear correlation and artificial neural network (ANN) models defined by genetic algorithms (GAs). ANN models were also used to predict the daily average concentration of this air pollutant in Campo Grande, Brazil. Three methodologies were applied using GAs, two of them considering threshold models. In these models, the variables selected to define different regimes were daily average O3 concentration, relative humidity and solar radiation. The threshold model that considers two O3 regimes was the one that correctly describes the effect of important meteorological variables in O3 behaviour, presenting also a good predictive performance. Solar radiation, relative humidity and rainfall were considered significant for both O3 regimes; however, wind speed (dispersion effect) was only significant for high concentrations. According to this model, high O3 concentrations corresponded to high solar radiation, low relative humidity and wind speed. This model showed to be a powerful tool to interpret the O3 behaviour, being useful to define policy strategies for human health protection regarding air pollution.

Gender-specific interactions between education and income in relation to obesity: a cross-sectional analysis of the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V)

PubMed Central

Chung, Woojin; Lim, Seung-ji; Lee, Sunmi; Kim, Roeul; Kim, Jaeyeun

2017-01-01

Objectives To identify gender-specific associations between education and income in relation to obesity in developed countries by considering both the interaction-effect terms of the independent variables and their main-effect terms. Design A cross-sectional study. Education and income levels were chosen as socioeconomic status indicators. Sociodemographics, lifestyles and medical conditions were used as covariates in multivariable logistic regression models. Adjusted ORs and predicted probabilities of being obese were computed and adjusted for a complex survey design. Setting Data were obtained from the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2010–2012). Participants The sample included 7337 male and 9908 female participants aged ≥19 years. Outcome measure Obesity was defined as body mass index of ≥25, according to a guideline for Asians. Results In models with no interaction-effect terms of independent variables, education was significantly associated with obesity in both men and women, but income was significant only in women. However, in models with the interaction-effect terms, education was significant only in women, but income was significant only in men. The interaction effect between income and education was significant in men but not in women. Participants having the highest predicted probability of being obese over educational and income levels differed between the two types of models, and between men and women. A prediction using the models with the interaction-effect terms demonstrated that for all men, the highest level of formal education was associated with an increase in their probability of being obese by as much as 26%. Conclusions The well-known, negative association between socioeconomic status and obesity in developed countries may not be valid when interaction effects are included. Ignoring these effects and their gender differences may result in the targeting of wrong populations for reducing obesity prevalence and its resultant socioeconomic gradients. PMID:29288171

Adolescent Summaries of Narrative and Expository Discourse: Differences and Predictors.

PubMed

Lundine, Jennifer P; Harnish, Stacy M; McCauley, Rebecca J; Blackett, Deena Schwen; Zezinka, Alexandra; Chen, Wei; Fox, Robert A

2018-05-03

Summarizing expository passages is a critical academic skill that is understudied in language research. The purpose of this study was to compare the quality of verbal summaries produced by adolescents for 3 different discourse types and to determine whether a composite measure of cognitive skill or a test of expressive syntax predicted their performance. Fifty adolescents listened to, and then verbally summarized, 1 narrative and 2 expository lectures (compare-contrast and cause-effect). They also participated in testing that targeted expressive syntax and 5 cognitive subdomains. Summary quality scores were significantly different across discourse types, with a medium effect size. Analyses revealed significantly higher summary quality scores for cause-effect than compare-contrast summaries. Although the composite cognitive measure contributed significantly to the prediction of quality scores for both types of expository summaries, the expressive syntax score only contributed significantly to the quality scores for narrative summaries. These results support previous research indicating that type of expository discourse may impact student performance. These results also show, for the first time, that cognition may play a predictive role in determining summary quality for expository but not narrative passages in this population. In addition, despite the more complex syntax commonly associated with exposition versus narratives, an expressive syntax score was only predictive of performance on narrative summaries. These findings provide new information, questions, and directions for future research for those who study academic discourse and for professionals who must identify and manage the problems of students struggling with different types of academic discourse. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.6167879.

Predicting flight delay based on multiple linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yi

2017-08-01

Delay of flight has been regarded as one of the toughest difficulties in aviation control. How to establish an effective model to handle the delay prediction problem is a significant work. To solve the problem that the flight delay is difficult to predict, this study proposes a method to model the arriving flights and a multiple linear regression algorithm to predict delay, comparing with Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach. Experiments based on a realistic dataset of domestic airports show that the accuracy of the proposed model approximates 80%, which is further improved than the Naive-Bayes and C4.5 approach approaches. The result testing shows that this method is convenient for calculation, and also can predict the flight delays effectively. It can provide decision basis for airport authorities.

Investigating the predictive validity of implicit and explicit measures of motivation in problem-solving behavioural tasks.

PubMed

Keatley, David; Clarke, David D; Hagger, Martin S

2013-09-01

Research into the effects of individuals'autonomous motivation on behaviour has traditionally adopted explicit measures and self-reported outcome assessment. Recently, there has been increased interest in the effects of implicit motivational processes underlying behaviour from a self-determination theory (SDT) perspective. The aim of the present research was to provide support for the predictive validity of an implicit measure of autonomous motivation on behavioural persistence on two objectively measurable tasks. SDT and a dual-systems model were adopted as frameworks to explain the unique effects offered by explicit and implicit autonomous motivational constructs on behavioural persistence. In both studies, implicit autonomous motivation significantly predicted unique variance in time spent on each task. Several explicit measures of autonomous motivation also significantly predicted persistence. Results provide support for the proposed model and the inclusion of implicit measures in research on motivated behaviour. In addition, implicit measures of autonomous motivation appear to be better suited to explaining variance in behaviours that are more spontaneous or unplanned. Future implications for research examining implicit motivation from dual-systems models and SDT approaches are outlined. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Peak bone mass and patterns of change in total bone mineral density and bone mineral contents from childhood into young adulthood

PubMed Central

Lu, Juan; Shin, Yongyun; Yen, Miao-Shan; Sun, Shumei S.

2014-01-01

The literature has not reached a consensus on the age when peak bone mass is achieved. This study examines growth patterns of TBMC and TBMD, peak bone mass, effect of concurrent anthropometry measures and physical activity on growth patterns in a sample of 312 white males and 343 females aged eight to 30 years. We analyzed data from participants enrolled in Fels Longitudinal Study. Descriptive analysis was used to ascertain characteristics of participants and growth patterns of TBMC and TBMD. Mixed effects models were applied to predict ages at attainment of peak TBMC and TBMD and assess effects of height, weight, BMI and habitual physical activity on the attainment. Significant differences between sexes were observed for measures of TBMC and TBMD, and differences varied with age. For females, predicted median ages at peak TBMC and TBMD attainments are 21.96 (IQR: 21.81–22.21) and 22.31 (IQR: 21.95–22.59) years, respectively. For males, predicted median ages are 23.34 (IQR: 24.34–26.19) and 26.86 (IQR: 25.14–27.98) respectively. For females, height, weight and BMI, but not physical activity, had significant influences on attainment of TBMC and TBMD (P <0.01). For males, weight and BMI, but not height and physical activity, exerted significant influence on attainment of TBMC and TBMD (P<0.01), and also modified correlations between age and peak TBMC and TBMD. Our results suggest that (1) for both sexes, trajectories of TBMC and TBMD follow a curvilinear pattern between ages eight and 30 years; (2) predicted ages at peak TBMC and TBMD are from early to late 20s for both white males and females, with females reaching their peaks significantly earlier than males; and (3) concurrent height, weight and BMI, but not habitual physical activity, exert significant effects on trajectories of TBMC and TBMD. PMID:25440183

76 FR 16199 - Hours of Service of Railroad Employees; Substantive Regulations for Train Employees Providing...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-22

... statistically significant relationship is evaluated by way of the correlation coefficient (r) with statistical... . The analysis revealed a significant high correlation between reduced predicted crew effectiveness (as...

Application of a fuzzy neural network model in predicting polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-mediated perturbations of the Cyp1b1 transcriptional regulatory network in mouse skin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larkin, Andrew; Department of Statistics, Oregon State University; Superfund Research Center, Oregon State University

2013-03-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are present in the environment as complex mixtures with components that have diverse carcinogenic potencies and mostly unknown interactive effects. Non-additive PAH interactions have been observed in regulation of cytochrome P450 (CYP) gene expression in the CYP1 family. To better understand and predict biological effects of complex mixtures, such as environmental PAHs, an 11 gene input-1 gene output fuzzy neural network (FNN) was developed for predicting PAH-mediated perturbations of dermal Cyp1b1 transcription in mice. Input values were generalized using fuzzy logic into low, medium, and high fuzzy subsets, and sorted using k-means clustering to create Mamdanimore » logic functions for predicting Cyp1b1 mRNA expression. Model testing was performed with data from microarray analysis of skin samples from FVB/N mice treated with toluene (vehicle control), dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), or 1 of 3 combinations of diesel particulate extract (DPE), coal tar extract (CTE) and cigarette smoke condensate (CSC) using leave-one-out cross-validation. Predictions were within 1 log{sub 2} fold change unit of microarray data, with the exception of the DBC treatment group, where the unexpected down-regulation of Cyp1b1 expression was predicted but did not reach statistical significance on the microarrays. Adding CTE to DPE was predicted to increase Cyp1b1 expression, whereas adding CSC to CTE and DPE was predicted to have no effect, in agreement with microarray results. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor (Ahrr) was determined to be the most significant input variable for model predictions using back-propagation and normalization of FNN weights. - Highlights: ► Tested a model to predict PAH mixture-mediated changes in Cyp1b1 expression ► Quantitative predictions in agreement with microarrays for Cyp1b1 induction ► Unexpected difference in expression between DBC and other treatments predicted ► Model predictions for combining PAH mixtures in agreement with microarrays ► Predictions highly dependent on aryl hydrocarbon receptor repressor expression.« less

The impact of perceived discrimination on personality among Chinese migrant children: The moderating role of parental support.

PubMed

Xiang, Xiaoping; Wong, Daniel Fu Keung; Hou, Ke

2018-05-01

Previous research has indicated that perceived discrimination has harmful effects on migrant children's physical, mental and behavioral health. However, little is known as to whether these harmful effects cumulate to impact on migrant children's personalities. This study examines the effect of perceived discrimination on personality, as well as the moderating role of parental support in the discrimination-personality linkage. A purposeful convenience sample of 215 migrant children in Beijing, China, completed a standardized questionnaire. Migrant children experienced a moderate level of perceived discrimination, with Form 8 students experiencing greater discrimination than lower grades and those with lower family incomes also experiencing greater discrimination than those with higher family incomes. Perceived discrimination significantly predicted neuroticism; parental support significantly predicted extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness, but the moderating effect of parental support was only marginally significant for the relation between discrimination and conscientiousness. This study underlines the need for researchers and policy makers to pay more attention to the impact of perceived discrimination on migrant children's personality development.

Predicting Effects of Psychological Inflexibility/Experiential Avoidance and Stress Coping Strategies for Internet Addiction, Significant Depression, and Suicidality in College Students: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Chou, Wei-Po; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Liu, Tai-Ling

2018-01-01

The aims of this study were to evaluate the predicting effects of psychological inflexibility/experiential avoidance (PI/EA) and stress coping strategies for Internet addiction, significant depression and suicidality among college students during the follow-up period of one year. A total of 500 college students participated in this study. The level of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were evaluated initially. One year later, 324 participants were invited to complete the Chen Internet Addiction Scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II and the questionnaire for suicidality to evaluate depression symptoms and internet addiction and suicidality. The predicting effects of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were examined by using logistic regression analysis controlling for the effects of gender and age. The results indicated that PI/EA at the initial assessment increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.087, 95% CI: 1.042–1.135), significant depression (OR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.081–1.170), and suicidality (OR = 1.099, 95% CI: 1.053–1.147) at the follow-up assessment. Less effective coping at the initial assessment also increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.011–1.140), significant depression (OR = 1.091, 95% CI: 1.037–1.147), and suicidality (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.014–1.138) at the follow-up assessment. Problem focused and emotion-focus coping at the initial assessment was not significantly associated with the risks of Internet addiction, significant depression, and suicidality at the follow-up assessment. College students who have high PI/EA or are accustomed to using less effective stress coping strategies should be the target of prevention programs for IA (internet addiction), depression, and suicidality. PMID:29670025

[Quantitative Prediction of Drug-Drug Interaction Caused by CYP Inhibition and Induction from In Vivo Data and Its Application in Daily Clinical Practices-Proposal for the Pharmacokinetic Interaction Significance Classification System (PISCS)].

PubMed

Ohno, Yoshiyuki

2018-01-01

　Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can affect the clearance of various drugs from the body; however, these effects are difficult to sufficiently evaluate in clinical studies. This article outlines our approach to improving methods for evaluating and providing drug information relative to the effects of DDIs. In a previous study, total exposure changes to many substrate drugs of CYP caused by the co-administration of inhibitor or inducer drugs were successfully predicted using in vivo data. There are two parameters for the prediction: the contribution ratio of the enzyme to oral clearance for substrates (CR), and either the inhibition ratio for inhibitors (IR) or the increase in clearance of substrates produced by induction (IC). To apply these predictions in daily pharmacotherapy, the clinical significance of any pharmacokinetic changes must be carefully evaluated. We constructed a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) in which the clinical significance of DDIs was considered in a systematic manner, according to pharmacokinetic changes. The PISCS suggests that many current 'alert' classifications are potentially inappropriate, especially for drug combinations in which pharmacokinetics have not yet been evaluated. It is expected that PISCS would contribute to constructing a reliable system to alert pharmacists, physicians and consumers of a broad range of pharmacokinetic DDIs in order to more safely manage daily clinical practices.

Developmental Screening Referrals: Child and Family Factors that Predict Referral Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jennings, Danielle J.; Hanline, Mary Frances

2013-01-01

This study researched the predictive impact of developmental screening results and the effects of child and family characteristics on completion of referrals given for evaluation. Logistical and hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used to determine the significance of 10 independent variables on the predictor variable. The number of…

The Effectiveness of Academic Interest Scales in Predicting College Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Richard W.

The predictive validities of various SVIB academic interest scales were assessed with first semester freshman males at the University of Massachusetts. Both the Rust and Ryan and the Campbell and Johansson scales contributed significantly, albeit modestly, to a multiple correlation coefficient consisting of high school rank and scholastic aptitude…

Optimism as a predictor of the effects of laboratory-induced stress on fears and hope.

PubMed

Kimhi, Shaul; Eshel, Yohanan; Shahar, Eldad

2013-01-01

The objective of the current study is to explore optimism as a predictor of personal and collective fear, as well as hope, following laboratory-induced stress. Students (N = 107; 74 female, 33 male) were assigned randomly to either the experimental (stress--political violence video clip) or the control group (no-stress--nature video clip). Questionnaires of fear and hope were administered immediately after the experiment (Time 1) and 3 weeks later (Time 2). Structural equation modeling indicated the following: (a) Optimism significantly predicted both fear and hope in the stress group at Time 1, but not in the no-stress group. (b) Optimism predicted hope but not fear at Time 2 in the stress group. (c) Hope at Time 1 significantly predicted hope at Time 2, in both the stress and the no-stress groups. (d) Gender did not predict significantly fear at Time 1 in the stress group, despite a significant difference between genders. This study supports previous studies indicating that optimism plays an important role in people's coping with stress. However, based on our research the data raise the question of whether optimism, by itself, or environmental stress, by itself, may accurately predict stress response.

Temporal scale dependent interactions between multiple environmental disturbances in microcosm ecosystems.

PubMed

Garnier, Aurélie; Pennekamp, Frank; Lemoine, Mélissa; Petchey, Owen L

2017-12-01

Global environmental change has negative impacts on ecological systems, impacting the stable provision of functions, goods, and services. Whereas effects of individual environmental changes (e.g. temperature change or change in resource availability) are reasonably well understood, we lack information about if and how multiple changes interact. We examined interactions among four types of environmental disturbance (temperature, nutrient ratio, carbon enrichment, and light) in a fully factorial design using a microbial aquatic ecosystem and observed responses of dissolved oxygen saturation at three temporal scales (resistance, resilience, and return time). We tested whether multiple disturbances combine in a dominant, additive, or interactive fashion, and compared the predictability of dissolved oxygen across scales. Carbon enrichment and shading reduced oxygen concentration in the short term (i.e. resistance); although no other effects or interactions were statistically significant, resistance decreased as the number of disturbances increased. In the medium term, only enrichment accelerated recovery, but none of the other effects (including interactions) were significant. In the long term, enrichment and shading lengthened return times, and we found significant two-way synergistic interactions between disturbances. The best performing model (dominant, additive, or interactive) depended on the temporal scale of response. In the short term (i.e. for resistance), the dominance model predicted resistance of dissolved oxygen best, due to a large effect of carbon enrichment, whereas none of the models could predict the medium term (i.e. resilience). The long-term response was best predicted by models including interactions among disturbances. Our results indicate the importance of accounting for the temporal scale of responses when researching the effects of environmental disturbances on ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indoor NO2 air pollution and lung function of professional cooks.

PubMed

Arbex, M A; Martins, L C; Pereira, L A A; Negrini, F; Cardoso, A A; Melchert, W R; Arbex, R F; Saldiva, P H N; Zanobetti, A; Braga, A L F

2007-04-01

Studies of cooking-generated NO2 effects are rare in occupational epidemiology. In the present study, we evaluated the lung function of professional cooks exposed to NO2 in hospital kitchens. We performed spirometry in 37 cooks working in four hospital kitchens and estimated the predicted FVC, FEV1 and FEF(25-75), based on age, sex, race, weight, and height, according to Knudson standards. NO2 measurements were obtained for 4 consecutive days during 4 different periods at 20-day intervals in each kitchen. Measurements were performed inside and outside the kitchens, simultaneously using Palm diffusion tubes. A time/exposure indicator was defined as representative of the cumulative exposure of each cook. No statistically significant effect of NO2 exposure on FVC was found. Each year of work as a cook corresponded to a decrease in predicted FEV1 of 2.5% (P = 0.046) for the group as a whole. When smoking status and asthma were included in the analysis the effect of time/exposure decreased about 10% and lost statistical significance. On predicted FEF(25-75), a decrease of 3.5% (P = 0.035) was observed for the same group and the inclusion of controllers for smoking status and asthma did not affect the effects of time/exposure on pulmonary function parameter. After a 10-year period of work as cooks the participants of the study may present decreases in both predicted FEV1 and FEF(25-75) that can reach 20 and 30%, respectively. The present study showed small but statistically significant adverse effects of gas stove exposure on the lung function of professional cooks.

Efficacy of Sleeve Gastrectomy with Duodenal-Jejunal Bypass for the Treatment of Obese Severe Diabetes Patients in Japan: a Retrospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Naitoh, Takeshi; Kasama, Kazunori; Seki, Yosuke; Ohta, Masayuki; Oshiro, Takashi; Sasaki, Akira; Miyazaki, Yasuhiro; Yamaguchi, Tsuyoshi; Hayashi, Hideki; Imoto, Hirofumi; Tanaka, Naoki; Unno, Michiaki

2018-02-01

The incidence of obesity with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasing in Japan. The main bariatric surgery procedures in Japan are laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and LSG with duodenal-jejunal bypass (LSG/DJB) because of the high incidence of gastric cancer and difficulty exploring a remnant stomach after gastric bypass. However, few studies have compared the antidiabetic effect of LSG/DJB with LSG alone. The purpose of this study is to compare the antidiabetic effect of LSG/DJB with that of LSG alone in Japanese obese diabetic patients. This was a retrospective multicenter study including 298 cases: 177 and 121 LSG and LSG/DJB cases, respectively. We investigated the antidiabetic effect of these two procedures at 12 months after surgery. Univariate and multivariate analyses were done to evaluate the predictive factors of T2DM remission. The diabetes remission rate at 12 months after surgery was 80.8% for LSG and 86.0% for LSG/DJB. Insulin use and HbA1c ≤ 6.7% were significant predictive factors in multivariate analysis for all patients. In patients with ABCD score ≥ 6, the diabetes remission rate was 94.8% and there was no difference between procedures. Only duration of diabetes and insulin use were significant predictive factors both in univariate and multivariate analyses. However, in cases with ABCD score ≤ 5, the remission rate was 70.3% and procedure type was the most significant predictive factor for diabetes remission (odds ratio [OR] 5.140). Although both LSG and LSG/DJB have good antidiabetic effects in Japanese obese patients, LSG/DJB is more effective for patients with lower ABCD scores.

Prediction of the noise from a propeller at angle of attack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krejsa, Eugene A.

1990-01-01

An analysis is presented to predict the noise of a propeller at angle of attack. The analysis is an extension of that reported by Mani which predicted the change in noise due to angle of attack to both unsteady loading and to azimuthal variation of the radiation efficiency of steady noise sources. Mani's analysis, however, was limited to small angles of attack. The analysis reported herein removes this small angle limitation. Results from the analysis are compared with the data of Woodward for a single rotation propeller and a counter rotating propeller. The comparison shows that including the effect of angle of attack on the steady noise sources significantly improves the agreement with data. Including higher order effects of angle of attack, while changing the predicted noise at far forward and aft angles, has little effect near the propeller plane.

Verbal Memory Declines More Rapidly with Age in HIV Infected versus Uninfected Adults

PubMed Central

Seider, Talia R.; Luo, Xi; Gongvatana, Assawin; Devlin, Kathryn N.; de la Monte, Suzanne M.; Chasman, Jesse D.; Yan, Peisi; Tashima, Karen T.; Navia, Bradford; Cohen, Ronald A.

2015-01-01

Objectives In the current era of effective antiretroviral treatment, the number of older adults living with HIV is rapidly increasing. This study investigated the combined influence of age and HIV infection on longitudinal changes in verbal and visuospatial learning and memory. Methods In this longitudinal, case-control design, 54 HIV seropositive and 30 seronegative individuals aged 40–74 received neurocognitive assessments at baseline visits and again one year later. Assessment included tests of verbal and visuospatial learning and memory. Linear regression was used to predict baseline performance and longitudinal change on each test using HIV serostatus, age, and their interaction as predictors. MANOVA was used to assess the effects of these predictors on overall baseline performance and overall longitudinal change. Results The interaction of HIV and age significantly predicted longitudinal change in verbal memory performance, as did HIV status, indicating that although the seropositive group declined more than the seronegative group overall, the rate of decline depended on age such that greater age was associated with a greater decline in this group. The regression models for visuospatial learning and memory were significant at baseline, but did not predict change over time. HIV status significantly predicted overall baseline performance and overall longitudinal change. Conclusions This is the first longitudinal study focused on the effects of age and HIV on memory. Findings suggest that age and HIV interact to produce larger declines in verbal memory over time. Further research is needed to gain a greater understanding of the effects of HIV on the aging brain. PMID:24645772

Does low self-esteem predict depression and anxiety? A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Sowislo, Julia Friederike; Orth, Ulrich

2013-01-01

Low self-esteem and depression are strongly related, but there is not yet consistent evidence on the nature of the relation. Whereas the vulnerability model states that low self-esteem contributes to depression, the scar model states that depression erodes self-esteem. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the models are specific for depression or whether they are also valid for anxiety. We evaluated the vulnerability and scar models of low self-esteem and depression, and low self-esteem and anxiety, by meta-analyzing the available longitudinal data (covering 77 studies on depression and 18 studies on anxiety). The mean age of the samples ranged from childhood to old age. In the analyses, we used a random-effects model and examined prospective effects between the variables, controlling for prior levels of the predicted variables. For depression, the findings supported the vulnerability model: The effect of self-esteem on depression (β = -.16) was significantly stronger than the effect of depression on self-esteem (β = -.08). In contrast, the effects between low self-esteem and anxiety were relatively balanced: Self-esteem predicted anxiety with β = -.10, and anxiety predicted self-esteem with β = -.08. Moderator analyses were conducted for the effect of low self-esteem on depression; these suggested that the effect is not significantly influenced by gender, age, measures of self-esteem and depression, or time lag between assessments. If future research supports the hypothesized causality of the vulnerability effect of low self-esteem on depression, interventions aimed at increasing self-esteem might be useful in reducing the risk of depression.

Predicting therapy success for treatment as usual and blended treatment in the domain of depression.

PubMed

van Breda, Ward; Bremer, Vincent; Becker, Dennis; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Funk, Burkhardt; Ruwaard, Jeroen; Riper, Heleen

2018-06-01

In this paper, we explore the potential of predicting therapy success for patients in mental health care. Such predictions can eventually improve the process of matching effective therapy types to individuals. In the EU project E-COMPARED, a variety of information is gathered about patients suffering from depression. We use this data, where 276 patients received treatment as usual and 227 received blended treatment, to investigate to what extent we are able to predict therapy success. We utilize different encoding strategies for preprocessing, varying feature selection techniques, and different statistical procedures for this purpose. Significant predictive power is found with average AUC values up to 0.7628 for treatment as usual and 0.7765 for blended treatment. Adding daily assessment data for blended treatment does currently not add predictive accuracy. Cost effectiveness analysis is needed to determine the added potential for real-world applications.

Relationships of personality factors to perceived stress, depression, and oral lichen planus severity.

PubMed

Mohamadi Hasel, Kurosh; Besharat, Mohamad Ali; Abdolhoseini, Amir; Alaei Nasab, Somaye; Niknam, Seyran

2013-06-01

  The objective of this study is to examine relationships of hardiness and big five personality factors to depression, perceived stress, and oral lichen planus (OLP) severity. Sixty Iranian patients with oral lichen planus completed measures of perceived stress, hardiness, big five, and depression. Linear regressions revealed that control and challenge significantly predicted least perceived stress. On the contrary, big five factor of neuroticism predicted more perceived stress. Furthermore, control, commitment, and extraversion negatively predicted depression levels, but neuroticism positively predicted depression levels. Additionally, more levels of the challenge factor predicted fewer OLP scores while more levels of perceived stress predicted more OLP scores. The components of control challenge and neuroticism factors had a significant role in predicting perceived stress. On the other hand, the components of control and commitment and extraversion factors had a prominent role in predicting depression in patients with OLP, so personality constructs may have an effective role in triggering experience of stress, depression, and OLP itself. Additionally, interventions that enhance individual protective factors may be beneficial in reducing stress and depression in some severe diseases.

Combined effects of water temperature and copper ion concentration on catalase activity in Crassostrea ariakensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hui; Yang, Hongshuai; Liu, Jiahui; Li, Yanhong; Liu, Zhigang

2015-07-01

A central composite experimental design and response surface method were used to investigate the combined effects of water temperature (18-34°C) and copper ion concentration (0.1-1.5 mg/L) on the catalase (CAT) activity in the digestive gland of Crassostrea ariakensis. The results showed that the linear effects of temperature were significant ( P<0.01), the quadratic effects of temperature were significant ( P<0.05), the linear effects of copper ion concentration were not significant ( P>0.05), and the quadratic effects of copper ion concentration were significant ( P<0.05). Additionally, the synergistic effects of temperature and copper ion concentration were not significant ( P>0.05), and the effect of temperature was greater than that of copper ion concentration. A model equation of CAT enzyme activity in the digestive gland of C. ariakensis toward the two factors of interest was established, with R 2, Adj. R 2 and Pred. R 2 values as high as 0.943 7, 0.887 3 and 0.838 5, respectively. These findings suggested that the goodness of fit to experimental data and predictive capability of the model were satisfactory, and could be practically applied for prediction under the conditions of the study. Overall, the results suggest that the simultaneous variation of temperature and copper ion concentration alters the activity of the antioxidant enzyme CAT by modulating active oxygen species metabolism, which may be utilized as a biomarker to detect the effects of copper pollution.

Prediction of anthropometric foot characteristics in children.

PubMed

Morrison, Stewart C; Durward, Brian R; Watt, Gordon F; Donaldson, Malcolm D C

2009-01-01

The establishment of growth reference values is needed in pediatric practice where pathologic conditions can have a detrimental effect on the growth and development of the pediatric foot. This study aims to use multiple regression to evaluate the effects of multiple predictor variables (height, age, body mass, and gender) on anthropometric characteristics of the peripubescent foot. Two hundred children aged 9 to 12 years were recruited, and three anthropometric measurements of the pediatric foot were recorded (foot length, forefoot width, and navicular height). Multiple regression analysis was conducted, and coefficients for gender, height, and body mass all had significant relationships for the prediction of forefoot width and foot length (P < or = .05, r > or = 0.7). The coefficients for gender and body mass were not significant for the prediction of navicular height (P > or = .05), whereas height was (P < or = .05). Normative growth reference values and prognostic regression equations are presented for the peripubescent foot.

Predicting employees' well-being using work-family conflict and job strain models.

PubMed

Karimi, Leila; Karimi, Hamidreza; Nouri, Aboulghassem

2011-04-01

The present study examined the effects of two models of work–family conflict (WFC) and job-strain on the job-related and context-free well-being of employees. The participants of the study consisted of Iranian employees from a variety of organizations. The effects of three dimensions of the job-strain model and six forms of WFC on affective well-being were assessed. The results of hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that the number of working hours, strain-based work interfering with family life (WIF) along with job characteristic variables (i.e. supervisory support, job demands and job control) all make a significant contribution to the prediction of job-related well-being. On the other hand, strain-based WIF and family interfering with work (FIW) significantly predicted context-free well-being. Implications are drawn and recommendations made regarding future research and interventions in the workplace.

Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to Predict College Students' Intention to Intervene With a Suicidal Individual.

PubMed

Aldrich, Rosalie S

2015-01-01

Suicide among college students is an issue of serious concern. College peers may effectively intervene with at-risk persons due to their regular contact and close personal relationships with others in this population of significantly enhanced risk. The current study was designed to investigate whether the theory of planned behavior constructs predicted intention to intervene when a college peer is suicidal. Undergraduate students (n = 367) completed an on-line questionnaire; they answered questions about their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control regarding suicide and suicide intervention, as well as their intention to intervene when someone is suicidal. The data were analyzed using multiple regression. The statistical significance of this cross-sectional study indicates that the theory of planned behavior constructs predicts self-reported intention to intervene with a suicidal individual. Theory of planned behavior is an effective framework for understanding peers' intention to intervene with a suicidal individual.

Enhancing the Performance of LibSVM Classifier by Kernel F-Score Feature Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarojini, Balakrishnan; Ramaraj, Narayanasamy; Nickolas, Savarimuthu

Medical Data mining is the search for relationships and patterns within the medical datasets that could provide useful knowledge for effective clinical decisions. The inclusion of irrelevant, redundant and noisy features in the process model results in poor predictive accuracy. Much research work in data mining has gone into improving the predictive accuracy of the classifiers by applying the techniques of feature selection. Feature selection in medical data mining is appreciable as the diagnosis of the disease could be done in this patient-care activity with minimum number of significant features. The objective of this work is to show that selecting the more significant features would improve the performance of the classifier. We empirically evaluate the classification effectiveness of LibSVM classifier on the reduced feature subset of diabetes dataset. The evaluations suggest that the feature subset selected improves the predictive accuracy of the classifier and reduce false negatives and false positives.

Age of acquisition predicts naming and lexical-decision performance above and beyond 22 other predictor variables: an analysis of 2,342 words.

PubMed

Cortese, Michael J; Khanna, Maya M

2007-08-01

Age of acquisition (AoA) ratings were obtained and were used in hierarchical regression analyses to predict naming and lexical-decision performance for 2,342 words (from Balota, Cortese, Sergent-Marshall, Spieler, & Yap, 2004). In the analyses, AoA was included in addition to the set of predictors used by Balota et al. (2004). AoA significantly predicted latency performance on both tasks above and beyond the standard predictor set. However, AoA was more strongly related to lexical-decision performance than to naming performance. Finally, the previously reported effect of imageability on naming latencies by Balota et al. was not significant with AoA included as a factor. These results are consistent with the idea either that AoA has a semantic/lexical locus or that AoA effects emerge primarily in situations in which the input-output mapping is arbitrary.

Prediction of Significant Wave Heights in the Tropics at Sub-seasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, R. P.; Shin, C. S.

2017-12-01

Skillfully predicting the 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) forecasts at 3 weeks lead-time over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans has been demonstrated using the WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model coupled to a modified version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this paper, we present results on the effect of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on such predictions. Forecasts initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008 are evaluated. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at 3 weeks lead-time is found over portions of the domain in both January and May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central Indian Ocean and northern western tropical Pacific, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean and western Pacific. The model also reproduces the spatial pattern of the inverse relationship between SWHA and sea level pressure anomalies during both composite El Niño and La Niña events at 3 weeks lead-time. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA in May over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea in composites of phases 2 and 6 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of MJO and ENSO. Analysis of the mechanisms for these relationships is described.

Human Papillomavirus DNA Methylation Predicts Response to Treatment Using Cidofovir and Imiquimod in Vulval Intraepithelial Neoplasia 3.

PubMed

Jones, Sadie E F; Hibbitts, Samantha; Hurt, Christopher N; Bryant, Dean; Fiander, Alison N; Powell, Ned; Tristram, Amanda J

2017-09-15

Purpose: Response rates to treatment of vulval intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) with imiquimod and cidofovir are approximately 57% and 61%, respectively. Treatment is associated with significant side effects and, if ineffective, risk of malignant progression. Treatment response is not predicted by clinical factors. Identification of a biomarker that could predict response is an attractive prospect. This work investigated HPV DNA methylation as a potential predictive biomarker in this setting. Experimental Design: DNA from 167 cases of VIN 3 from the RT3 VIN clinical trial was assessed. HPV-positive cases were identified using Greiner PapilloCheck and HPV 16 type-specific PCR. HPV DNA methylation status was assessed in three viral regions: E2, L1/L2, and the promoter, using pyrosequencing. Results: Methylation of the HPV E2 region was associated with response to treatment. For cidofovir ( n = 30), median E2 methylation was significantly higher in patients who responded ( P ≤ 0.0001); E2 methylation >4% predicted response with 88.2% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. For imiquimod ( n = 33), median E2 methylation was lower in patients who responded to treatment ( P = 0.03; not significant after Bonferroni correction); E2 methylation <4% predicted response with 70.6% sensitivity and 62.5% specificity. Conclusions: These data indicate that cidofovir and imiquimod may be effective in two biologically defined groups. HPV E2 DNA methylation demonstrated potential as a predictive biomarker for the treatment of VIN with cidofovir and may warrant investigation in a biomarker-guided clinical trial. Clin Cancer Res; 23(18); 5460-8. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Evaluation of MEGAN predicted biogenic isoprene emissions at urban locations in Southeast Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kota, Sri Harsha; Schade, Gunnar; Estes, Mark; Boyer, Doug; Ying, Qi

2015-06-01

Summertime isoprene emissions in the Houston area predicted by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 during the 2006 TexAQS study were evaluated using a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Predicted daytime isoprene concentrations at nine surface sites operated by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) were significantly higher than local observations when biogenic emissions dominate the total isoprene concentrations, with mean normalized bias (MNB) ranges from 2.0 to 7.7 and mean normalized error (MNE) ranges from 2.2 to 7.7. Predicted upper air isoprene and its first generation oxidation products of methacrolein (MACR) and methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) were also significantly higher (MNB = 8.6, MNE = 9.1) than observations made onboard of NOAA's WP-3 airplane, which flew over the urban area. Over-prediction of isoprene and its oxidation products both at the surface and the upper air strongly suggests that biogenic isoprene emissions in the Houston area are significantly overestimated. Reducing the emission rates by approximately 3/4 was necessary to reduce the error between predictions and observations. Comparison of gridded leaf area index (LAI), plant functional type (PFT) and gridded isoprene emission factor (EF) used in MEGAN modeling with estimates of the same factors from a field survey north of downtown Houston showed that the isoprene over-prediction is likely caused by the combined effects of a large overestimation of the gridded EF in urban Houston and an underestimation of urban LAI. Nevertheless, predicted ozone concentrations in this region were not significantly affected by the isoprene over-predictions, while predicted isoprene SOA and total SOA concentrations can be higher by as much as 50% and 13% using the higher isoprene emission rates, respectively.

Ironic and Reinvestment Effects in Baseball Pitching: How Information About an Opponent Can Influence Performance Under Pressure.

PubMed

Gray, Rob; Orn, Anders; Woodman, Tim

2017-02-01

Are pressure-induced performance errors in experts associated with novice-like skill execution (as predicted by reinvestment/conscious processing theories) or expert execution toward a result that the performer typically intends to avoid (as predicted by ironic processes theory)? The present study directly compared these predictions using a baseball pitching task with two groups of experienced pitchers. One group was shown only their target, while the other group was shown the target and an ironic (avoid) zone. Both groups demonstrated significantly fewer target hits under pressure. For the target-only group, this was accompanied by significant changes in expertise-related kinematic variables. In the ironic group, the number of pitches thrown in the ironic zone was significantly higher under pressure, and there were no significant changes in kinematics. These results suggest that information about an opponent can influence the mechanisms underlying pressure-induced performance errors.

Developmental histories of perceived racial discrimination and diurnal cortisol profiles in adulthood: A 20-year prospective study

PubMed Central

Adam, Emma K.; Heissel, Jennifer A.; Zeiders, Katharine H.; Richeson, Jennifer A.; Ross, Emily C.; Ehrlich, Katherine B.; Levy, Dorainne J.; Kemeny, Margaret; Brodish, Amanda B.; Malanchuk, Oksana; Peck, Stephen C.; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E.; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

2015-01-01

Perceived racial discrimination (PRD) has been associated with altered diurnal cortisol rhythms in past cross-sectional research. We investigate whether developmental histories of PRD, assessed prospectively, are associated with adult diurnal cortisol profiles. One-hundred and twelve (N = 50 Black, N = 62 White) adults from the Maryland Adolescent Development in Context Study provided saliva samples in adulthood (at approximately age 32 years) at waking, 30 min after waking, and at bedtime for 7 days. Diurnal cortisol measures were calculated, including waking cortisol levels, diurnal cortisol slopes, the cortisol awakening response (CAR), and average daily cortisol (AUC). These cortisol outcomes were predicted from measures of PRD obtained over a 20-year period beginning when individuals were in 7th grade (approximately age 12). Greater average PRD measured across the 20-year period predicted flatter adult diurnal cortisol slopes for both Black and White adults, and a lower CAR. Greater average PRD also predicted lower waking cortisol for Black, but not White adults. PRD experiences in adolescence accounted for many of these effects. When adolescent and young adult PRD are entered together predicting cortisol outcomes, PRD experiences in adolescence (but not young adulthood) significantly predicted flatter diurnal cortisol slopes for both Black and White adults. Adolescent, but not young adult PRD, also significantly predicted lower waking and lower average cortisol for Black adults. Young adult PRD was, however, a stronger predictor of the CAR, predicting a marginally lower CAR for Whites, and a significantly larger CAR for Blacks. Effects were robust to controlling for covariates including health behaviors, depression, income and parent education levels. PRD experiences interacted with parent education and income to predict aspects of the diurnal cortisol rhythm. Although these results suggest PRD influences on cortisol for both Blacks and Whites, the key findings suggest that the effects are more pervasive for Blacks, affecting multiple aspects of the cortisol diurnal rhythm. In addition, adolescence is a more sensitive developmental period than adulthood for the impacts of PRD on adult stress biology. PMID:26352481

Predicted effect of dynamic load on pitting fatigue life for low-contact-ratio spur gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewicki, David G.

1986-01-01

How dynamic load affects the surface pitting fatigue life of external spur gears was predicted by using the NASA computer program TELSGE. Parametric studies were performed over a range of various gear parameters modeling low-contact-ratio involute spur gears. In general, gear life predictions based on dynamic loads differed significantly from those based on static loads, with the predictions being strongly influenced by the maximum dynamic load during contact. Gear mesh operating speed strongly affected predicted dynamic load and life. Meshes operating at a resonant speed or one-half the resonant speed had significantly shorter lives. Dynamic life factors for gear surface pitting fatigue were developed on the basis of the parametric studies. In general, meshes with higher contact ratios had higher dynamic life factors than meshes with lower contact ratios. A design chart was developed for hand calculations of dynamic life factors.

Using bench press load to predict upper body exercise loads in physically active individuals.

PubMed

Wong, Del P; Ngo, Kwan-Lung; Tse, Michael A; Smith, Andrew W

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m(-2)) were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p < 0.01). The bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p < 0.01). Linear regression revealed that the bench press load was a significant (R(2) range from 0.64 to 0.86, p < 0.01) predictor for the loads of the 4 assistance exercises. The following 6RM prediction equations were determined: (a) Hammer curl = Bench press load (0.28) + 6.30 kg, (b) Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33) + 6.20 kg, (c) Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33) - 0.60 kg, and (d) Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42) + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. Key pointsThe bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises.No significant differences were found between the actual load and the predicted load in the four equations.6RM bench press load can be a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises.

Using Bench Press Load to Predict Upper Body Exercise Loads in Physically Active Individuals

PubMed Central

Wong, Del P.; Ngo, Kwan-Lung; Tse, Michael A.; Smith, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m-2) were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p < 0.01). The bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p < 0.01). Linear regression revealed that the bench press load was a significant (R2 range from 0.64 to 0.86, p < 0.01) predictor for the loads of the 4 assistance exercises. The following 6RM prediction equations were determined: (a) Hammer curl = Bench press load (0.28) + 6.30 kg, (b) Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33) + 6.20 kg, (c) Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33) - 0.60 kg, and (d) Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42) + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. Key points The bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises. No significant differences were found between the actual load and the predicted load in the four equations. 6RM bench press load can be a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. PMID:24149723

Predictions for the Effects of Free Stream Turbulence on Turbine Blade Heat Transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyle, Robert J.; Giel, Paul W.; Ames, Forrest E.

2004-01-01

An approach to predicting the effects of free stream turbulence on turbine vane and blade heat transfer is described. Four models for predicting the effects of free stream turbulence were in incorporated into a Navier-Stokes CFD analysis. Predictions were compared with experimental data in order to identify an appropriate model for use across a wide range of flow conditions. The analyses were compared with data from five vane geometries and from four rotor geometries. Each of these nine geometries had data for different Reynolds numbers. Comparisons were made for twenty four cases. Steady state calculations were done because all experimental data were obtained in steady state tests. High turbulence levels often result in suction surface transition upstream of the throat, while at low to moderate Reynolds numbers the pressure surface remains laminar. A two-dimensional analysis was used because the flow is predominately two-dimensional in the regions where free stream turbulence significantly augments surface heat transfer. Because the evaluation of models for predicting turbulence effects can be affected by other factors, the paper discusses modeling for transition, relaminarization, and near wall damping. Quantitative comparisons are given between the predictions and data.

Modeling Seizure Self-Prediction: An E-Diary Study

PubMed Central

Haut, Sheryl R.; Hall, Charles B.; Borkowski, Thomas; Tennen, Howard; Lipton, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Purpose A subset of patients with epilepsy successfully self-predicted seizures in a paper diary study. We conducted an e-diary study to ensure that prediction precedes seizures, and to characterize the prodromal features and time windows that underlie self-prediction. Methods Subjects 18 or older with LRE and ≥3 seizures/month maintained an e-diary, reporting AM/PM data daily, including mood, premonitory symptoms, and all seizures. Self-prediction was rated by, “How likely are you to experience a seizure [time frame]”? Five choices ranged from almost certain (>95% chance) to very unlikely. Relative odds of seizure (OR) within time frames was examined using Poisson models with log normal random effects to adjust for multiple observations. Key Findings Nineteen subjects reported 244 eligible seizures. OR for prediction choices within 6hrs was as high as 9.31 (1.92,45.23) for “almost certain”. Prediction was most robust within 6hrs of diary entry, and remained significant up to 12hrs. For 9 best predictors, average sensitivity was 50%. Older age contributed to successful self-prediction, and self-prediction appeared to be driven by mood and premonitory symptoms. In multivariate modeling of seizure occurrence, self-prediction (2.84; 1.68,4.81), favorable change in mood (0.82; 0.67,0.99) and number of premonitory symptoms (1,11; 1.00,1.24) were significant. Significance Some persons with epilepsy can self-predict seizures. In these individuals, the odds of a seizure following a positive prediction are high. Predictions were robust, not attributable to recall bias, and were related to self awareness of mood and premonitory features. The 6-hour prediction window is suitable for the development of pre-emptive therapy. PMID:24111898

Grid orthogonality effects on predicted turbine midspan heat transfer and performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyle, R. J.; Ameri, A. A.

1995-01-01

The effect of five different C type grid geometries on the predicted heat transfer and aerodynamic performance of a turbine stator is examined. Predictions were obtained using two flow analysis codes. One was a finite difference analysis, and the other was a finite volume analysis. Differences among the grids in terms of heat transfer and overall performance were small. The most significant difference among the five grids occurred in the prediction of pitchwise variation in total pressure. There was consistency between results obtained with each of the flow analysis codes when the same grid was used. A grid generating procedure in which the viscous grid is embedded within an inviscid type grid resulted in the best overall performance.

Predictive models of poly(ethylene-terephthalate) film degradation under multi-factor accelerated weathering exposures

PubMed Central

Ngendahimana, David K.; Fagerholm, Cara L.; Sun, Jiayang; Bruckman, Laura S.

2017-01-01

Accelerated weathering exposures were performed on poly(ethylene-terephthalate) (PET) films. Longitudinal multi-level predictive models as a function of PET grades and exposure types were developed for the change in yellowness index (YI) and haze (%). Exposures with similar change in YI were modeled using a linear fixed-effects modeling approach. Due to the complex nature of haze formation, measurement uncertainty, and the differences in the samples’ responses, the change in haze (%) depended on individual samples’ responses and a linear mixed-effects modeling approach was used. When compared to fixed-effects models, the addition of random effects in the haze formation models significantly increased the variance explained. For both modeling approaches, diagnostic plots confirmed independence and homogeneity with normally distributed residual errors. Predictive R2 values for true prediction error and predictive power of the models demonstrated that the models were not subject to over-fitting. These models enable prediction under pre-defined exposure conditions for a given exposure time (or photo-dosage in case of UV light exposure). PET degradation under cyclic exposures combining UV light and condensing humidity is caused by photolytic and hydrolytic mechanisms causing yellowing and haze formation. Quantitative knowledge of these degradation pathways enable cross-correlation of these lab-based exposures with real-world conditions for service life prediction. PMID:28498875

Testing neoclassical and turbulent effects on poloidal rotation in the core of DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Chrystal, Colin; Burrell, Keith H.; Grierson, Brian A.; ...

2014-07-09

Experimental tests of ion poloidal rotation theories have been performed on DIII-D using a novel impurity poloidal rotation diagnostic. These tests show significant disagreements with theoretical predictions in various conditions, including L-mode plasmas with internal transport barriers (ITB), H-mode plasmas, and QH-mode plasmas. The theories tested include standard neoclassical theory, turbulence driven Reynolds stress, and fast-ion friction on the thermal ions. Poloidal rotation is observed to spin up at the formation of an ITB and makes a significant contribution to the measurement of themore » $$\\vec{E}$$ × $$\\vec{B}$$ shear that forms the ITB. In ITB cases, neoclassical theory agrees quantitatively with the experimental measurements only in the steep gradient region. Significant quantitative disagreement with neoclassical predictions is seen in the cores of ITB, QH-, and H-mode plasmas, demonstrating that neoclassical theory is an incomplete description of poloidal rotation. The addition of turbulence driven Reynolds stress does not remedy this disagreement; linear stability calculations and Doppler backscattering measurements show that disagreement increases as turbulence levels decline. Furthermore, the effect of fast-ion friction, by itself, does not lead to improved agreement; in QH-mode plasmas, neoclassical predictions are closest to experimental results in plasmas with the largest fast ion friction. Finally, predictions from a new model that combines all three effects show somewhat better agreement in the H-mode case, but discrepancies well outside the experimental error bars remain.« less

Effect of barnacle fouling on ship resistance and powering.

PubMed

Demirel, Yigit Kemal; Uzun, Dogancan; Zhang, Yansheng; Fang, Ho-Chun; Day, Alexander H; Turan, Osman

2017-11-01

Predictions of added resistance and the effective power of ships were made for varying barnacle fouling conditions. A series of towing tests was carried out using flat plates covered with artificial barnacles. The tests were designed to allow the examination of the effects of barnacle height and percentage coverage on the resistance and effective power of ships. The drag coefficients and roughness function values were evaluated for the flat plates. The roughness effects of the fouling conditions on the ships' frictional resistances were predicted. Added resistance diagrams were then plotted using these predictions, and powering penalties for these ships were calculated using the diagrams generated. The results indicate that the effect of barnacle size is significant, since a 10% coverage of barnacles each 5 mm in height caused a similar level of added power requirements to a 50% coverage of barnacles each 1.25 mm in height.

Determinants of Exercise for Breast Cancer Survivors With Fatigue in Taiwan

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

support for exercise, and exercise self-efficacy did have a significant direct effect on exercise outcome expectancy (hypothesis II). Detail...agree") on exercise outcome expectancy scale resulting in a "ceiling effect ". 6 KEY RESEARCH ACCOMPLISHMENTS Statement of Work Task 1. Preparation for...expectancy Support 18 Figure 2. Change in exercise outcome expectancy predicted from TI to T3. Significant direct effects (a straight line--) and

Neuroimaging-Aided Prediction of the Effect of Methylphenidate in Children with Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Ishii-Takahashi, Ayaka; Takizawa, Ryu; Nishimura, Yukika; Kawakubo, Yuki; Hamada, Kasumi; Okuhata, Shiho; Kawasaki, Shingo; Kuwabara, Hitoshi; Shimada, Takafumi; Todokoro, Ayako; Igarashi, Takashi; Watanabe, Kei-Ichiro; Yamasue, Hidenori; Kato, Nobumasa; Kasai, Kiyoto; Kano, Yukiko

2015-11-01

Although methylphenidate hydrochloride (MPH) is a first-line treatment for children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), the non-response rate is 30%. Our aim was to develop a supplementary neuroimaging biomarker for predicting the clinical effect of continuous MPH administration by using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). After baseline assessment, we performed a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial with a single dose of MPH, followed by a prospective 4-to-8-week open trial with continuous MPH administration, and an ancillary 1-year follow-up. Twenty-two drug-naïve and eight previously treated children with ADHD (NAÏVE and NON-NAÏVE) were compared with 20 healthy controls (HCs) who underwent multiple NIRS measurements without intervention. We tested whether NIRS signals at the baseline assessment or ΔNIRS (single dose of MPH minus baseline assessment) predict the Clinical Global Impressions-Severity (CGI-S) score after 4-to-8-week or 1-year MPH administration. The secondary outcomes were the effect of MPH on NIRS signals after single-dose, 4-to-8-week, and 1-year administration. ΔNIRS significantly predicted CGI-S after 4-to-8-week MPH administration. The leave-one-out classification algorithm had 81% accuracy using the NIRS signal. ΔNIRS also significantly predicted CGI-S scores after 1 year of MPH administration. For secondary analyses, NAÏVE exhibited significantly lower prefrontal activation than HCs at the baseline assessment, whereas NON-NAÏVE and HCs showed similar activation. A single dose of MPH significantly increased activation compared with the placebo in NAÏVE. After 4-to-8-week administration, and even after MPH washout following 1-year administration, NAÏVE demonstrated normalized prefrontal activation. Supplementary NIRS measurements may serve as an objective biomarker for clinical decisions and monitoring concerning continuous MPH treatment in children with ADHD.

Effects of perceived support from mothers, fathers, and teachers on depressive symptoms during the transition to middle school.

PubMed

Rueger, Sandra Yu; Chen, Pan; Jenkins, Lyndsay N; Choe, Hyung Joon

2014-04-01

The transition to middle school can be a significant stressor for young adolescents, leading to increases in depression for those who are vulnerable. The current study examined how perceived support from mothers, fathers, and teachers independently and interactively predicted developmental patterns of depressive symptoms during adolescents' transition to middle school, and gender differences in these effects of social support. Four timepoints of data were collected from 1,163 participants (48.5 % boys) enrolled in an ethnically diverse suburban middle school in the Midwest between 1.25 and 20.50 months after these participants entered the 7th grade. The results from growth curve modeling indicated that levels of depressive symptoms decreased over time for boys but remained stable for girls during the developmental period examined. There is also evidence that support from mothers, fathers, and teachers independently and inversely predicted levels of depressive symptoms at the beginning of the 7th grade, and support from both mothers and fathers predicted changes in these symptoms. Effects of mothers' support and teachers' support, but not the effect of fathers' support, remained significant in reducing levels of depressive symptoms at 20.50 months from middle school entry. Furthermore, the protective effect of mothers' support was stronger for girls than for boys. Finally, mothers' support interacted with fathers' support and teachers' support to predict levels of depressive symptoms. Specifically, the protective effect of mothers' support was more salient when fathers' support was low, and vice versa. In contrast, support from mothers and teachers had an amplifying, synergistic effect.

Variant effect prediction tools assessed using independent, functional assay-based datasets: implications for discovery and diagnostics.

PubMed

Mahmood, Khalid; Jung, Chol-Hee; Philip, Gayle; Georgeson, Peter; Chung, Jessica; Pope, Bernard J; Park, Daniel J

2017-05-16

Genetic variant effect prediction algorithms are used extensively in clinical genomics and research to determine the likely consequences of amino acid substitutions on protein function. It is vital that we better understand their accuracies and limitations because published performance metrics are confounded by serious problems of circularity and error propagation. Here, we derive three independent, functionally determined human mutation datasets, UniFun, BRCA1-DMS and TP53-TA, and employ them, alongside previously described datasets, to assess the pre-eminent variant effect prediction tools. Apparent accuracies of variant effect prediction tools were influenced significantly by the benchmarking dataset. Benchmarking with the assay-determined datasets UniFun and BRCA1-DMS yielded areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the modest ranges of 0.52 to 0.63 and 0.54 to 0.75, respectively, considerably lower than observed for other, potentially more conflicted datasets. These results raise concerns about how such algorithms should be employed, particularly in a clinical setting. Contemporary variant effect prediction tools are unlikely to be as accurate at the general prediction of functional impacts on proteins as reported prior. Use of functional assay-based datasets that avoid prior dependencies promises to be valuable for the ongoing development and accurate benchmarking of such tools.

An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

Prediction of Mechanical Properties of Polymers With Various Force Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, Gregory M.; Clancy, Thomas C.; Gates, Thomas S.

2005-01-01

The effect of force field type on the predicted elastic properties of a polyimide is examined using a multiscale modeling technique. Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to predict the atomic structure and elastic properties of the polymer by subjecting a representative volume element of the material to bulk and shear finite deformations. The elastic properties of the polyimide are determined using three force fields: AMBER, OPLS-AA, and MM3. The predicted values of Young s modulus and shear modulus of the polyimide are compared with experimental values. The results indicate that the mechanical properties of the polyimide predicted with the OPLS-AA force field most closely matched those from experiment. The results also indicate that while the complexity of the force field does not have a significant effect on the accuracy of predicted properties, small differences in the force constants and the functional form of individual terms in the force fields determine the accuracy of the force field in predicting the elastic properties of the polyimide.

Circulating C1q complement/TNF-related protein (CTRP) 1, CTRP9, CTRP12 and CTRP13 concentrations in Type 2 diabetes mellitus: In vivo regulation by glucose

PubMed Central

Zhang, Man Man; Tan, Bee Kang; Chen, Jing

2017-01-01

Objectives The C1q complement/TNF-related protein (CTRP) superfamily, which includes the adipokine adiponectin, has been shown in animal models to have positive metabolic and cardiovascular effects. We sought to investigate circulating CTRP1, CTRP9, CTRP12 and CTRP13 concentrations in persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), with age and BMI matched controls, and to examine the effects of a 2 hour 75g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) on serum CTRP1, CTRP9, CTRP12 and CTRP13 levels in persons with T2DM. Design Cross-sectional study [newly diagnosed T2DM (n = 124) and control (n = 139) participants]. Serum CTRP1, CTRP9, CTRP12 and CTRP13 were measured by ELISA. Results Systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol (TCH), Low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, triglycerides, TCH/High-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio, triglycerides/HDL ratio, glucose, insulin, homeostatic model assessment–insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), C-reactive protein and endothelial lipase were significantly higher, whereas leptin and adiponectin were significantly lower in T2DM participants. Serum CTRP1 were significantly higher and CTRP12 significantly lower in T2DM participants. Age, diastolic blood pressure, glucose and CTRP12 were predictive of serum CTRP1; leptin was predictive of serum CTRP9; glucose and CTRP1 were predictive of serum CTRP12; endothelial lipase was predictive of serum CTRP13. Finally, serum CTRP1 were significantly higher and CTRP12 significantly lower in T2DM participants after a 2 hour 75g OGTT. Conclusions Our data supports CTRP1 and CTRP12 as potential novel biomarkers for the prediction and early diagnosis of T2DM. Furthermore, pharmacological agents that target CTRP1 and CTRP12 could represent a new strategy in the treatment of T2DM. PMID:28207876

Building a generalized distributed system model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, Ravi; Foudriat, E. C.

1991-01-01

A modeling tool for both analysis and design of distributed systems is discussed. Since many research institutions have access to networks of workstations, the researchers decided to build a tool running on top of the workstations to function as a prototype as well as a distributed simulator for a computing system. The effects of system modeling on performance prediction in distributed systems and the effect of static locking and deadlocks on the performance predictions of distributed transactions are also discussed. While the probability of deadlock is considerably small, its effects on performance could be significant.

Exploring the associations between drug side-effects and therapeutic indications.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Zhang, Ping; Cao, Nan; Hu, Jianying; Sorrentino, Robert

2014-10-01

Drug therapeutic indications and side-effects are both measurable patient phenotype changes in response to the treatment. Inferring potential drug therapeutic indications and identifying clinically interesting drug side-effects are both important and challenging tasks. Previous studies have utilized either chemical structures or protein targets to predict indications and side-effects. In this study, we compared drug therapeutic indication prediction using various information including chemical structures, protein targets and side-effects. We also compared drug side-effect prediction with various information sources including chemical structures, protein targets and therapeutic indication. Prediction performance based on 10-fold cross-validation demonstrates that drug side-effects and therapeutic indications are the most predictive information source for each other. In addition, we extracted 6706 statistically significant indication-side-effect associations from all known drug-disease and drug-side-effect relationships. We further developed a novel user interface that allows the user to interactively explore these associations in the form of a dynamic bipartitie graph. Many relationship pairs provide explicit repositioning hypotheses (e.g., drugs causing postural hypotension are potential candidates for hypertension) and clear adverse-reaction watch lists (e.g., drugs for heart failure possibly cause impotence). All data sets and highly correlated disease-side-effect relationships are available at http://astro.temple.edu/∼tua87106/druganalysis.html. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

DOE PAGES

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Cacao, Eliedonna

2017-05-12

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-setmore » for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.« less

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Cacao, Eliedonna

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-setmore » for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.« less

An analytical study of the effects of transverse shear deformation and anisotropy on buckling loads of laminated cylinders. M.S. Thesis - George Washington Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jegley, Dawn C.

1987-01-01

Buckling loads of thick-walled orthotropic and anisotropic simply supported circular cylinders are predicted using a higher-order transverse-shear deformation theory. A comparison of buckling loads predicted by the conventional first-order transverse-shear deformation theory and the higher-order theory show that the additional allowance for transverse shear deformation has a negligible effect on the predicted buckling loads of medium-thick metallic isotropic cylinders. However, the higher-order theory predicts buckling loads which are significantly lower than those predicted by the first-order transverse-shear deformation theory for certain short, thick-walled cylinders which have low through-the-thickness shear moduli. A parametric study of the effects of ply orientation on the buckling load of axially compressed cylinders indicates that laminates containing 45 degree plies are most sensitive to transverse-shear deformation effects. Interaction curves for buckling loads of cylinders subjected to axial compressive and external pressure loadings indicate that buckling loads due to external pressure loadings are as sensitive to transverse-shear deformation effects as buckling loads due to axial compressive loadings. The effects of anisotropy are important over a much wider range of cylinder geometries than the effects of transverse shear deformation.

Dietary Intervention for Overweight and Obese Adults: Comparison of Low-Carbohydrate and Low-Fat Diets. A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sackner-Bernstein, Jonathan; Kanter, David; Kaul, Sanjay

2015-01-01

Background Reduced calorie, low fat diet is currently recommended diet for overweight and obese adults. Prior data suggest that low carbohydrate diets may also be a viable option for those who are overweight and obese. Purpose Compare the effects of low carbohydrate versus low fats diet on weight and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in overweight and obese patients. Data Sources Systematic literature review via PubMed (1966–2014). Study Selection Randomized controlled trials with ≥8 weeks follow up, comparing low carbohydrate (≤120gm carbohydrates/day) and low fat diet (≤30% energy from fat/day). Data Extraction Data were extracted and prepared for analysis using double data entry. Prior to identification of candidate publications, the outcomes of change in weight and metabolic factors were selected as defined by Cochrane Collaboration. Assessment of the effects of diets on predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk was added during the data collection phase. Data Synthesis 1797 patients were included from 17 trials with <1 year follow up in 12. Compared with low fat diet, low carbohydrate was associated with significantly greater reduction in weight (Δ = -2.0 kg, 95% CI: -3.1, -0.9) and significantly lower predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events (p<0.03). Frequentist and Bayesian results were concordant. The probability of greater weight loss associated with low carbohydrate was >99% while the reduction in predicted risk favoring low carbohydrate was >98%. Limitations Lack of patient-level data and heterogeneity in dropout rates and outcomes reported. Conclusions This trial-level meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing LoCHO diets with LoFAT diets in strictly adherent populations demonstrates that each diet was associated with significant weight loss and reduction in predicted risk of ASCVD events. However, LoCHO diet was associated with modest but significantly greater improvements in weight loss and predicted ASCVD risk in studies from 8 weeks to 24 months in duration. These results suggest that future evaluations of dietary guidelines should consider low carbohydrate diets as effective and safe intervention for weight management in the overweight and obese, although long-term effects require further investigation. PMID:26485706

Prediction of genetic values of quantitative traits with epistatic effects in plant breeding populations.

PubMed

Wang, D; Salah El-Basyoni, I; Stephen Baenziger, P; Crossa, J; Eskridge, K M; Dweikat, I

2012-11-01

Though epistasis has long been postulated to have a critical role in genetic regulation of important pathways as well as provide a major source of variation in the process of speciation, the importance of epistasis for genomic selection in the context of plant breeding is still being debated. In this paper, we report the results on the prediction of genetic values with epistatic effects for 280 accessions in the Nebraska Wheat Breeding Program using adaptive mixed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The development of adaptive mixed LASSO, originally designed for association mapping, for the context of genomic selection is reported. The results show that adaptive mixed LASSO can be successfully applied to the prediction of genetic values while incorporating both marker main effects and epistatic effects. Especially, the prediction accuracy is substantially improved by the inclusion of two-locus epistatic effects (more than onefold in some cases as measured by cross-validation correlation coefficient), which is observed for multiple traits and planting locations. This points to significant potential in using non-additive genetic effects for genomic selection in crop breeding practices.

Workplace harassment, stress, and drinking behavior over time: gender differences in a national sample.

PubMed

Rospenda, Kathleen M; Fujishiro, Kaori; Shannon, Candice A; Richman, Judith A

2008-07-01

Research suggests that workplace harassment (WH) significantly predicts alcohol use and problem drinking behavior, but has generally failed to consider concurrent effects of other sources of stress. This two-wave study (n=1418) is the first to explore whether sexual harassment (SH) and generalized workplace harassment (GWH) predict increased drinking independently of the effects of job and life stress, and whether effects differ by gender, in a nationally representative sample. SH and GWH predicted increases in problem drinking one year later for men but not women, while life stress was associated with increased problem drinking for women but not men. This study confirms the importance of examining the associations between different types of stressors and drinking-related outcomes in gendered contexts.

Sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS) related to chemotherapy for colorectal liver metastases: factors predictive of severe SOS lesions and protective effect of bevacizumab.

PubMed

Hubert, Catherine; Sempoux, Christine; Humblet, Yves; van den Eynde, Marc; Zech, Francis; Leclercq, Isabelle; Gigot, Jean-François

2013-11-01

The most frequent presentation of chemotherapy-related toxicity in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) is sinusoidal obstruction syndrome (SOS). The purpose of the present study was to identify preoperative factors predictive of SOS and to establish associations between type of chemotherapy and severity of SOS. A retrospective study was carried out in a tertiary academic referral hospital. Patients suffering from CRLM who had undergone resection of at least one liver segment were included. Grading of SOS on the non-tumoral liver parenchyma was accomplished according to the Rubbia-Brandt criteria. A total of 151 patients were enrolled and divided into four groups according to the severity of SOS (grades 0-3). Multivariate analysis identified oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil as chemotherapeutic agents responsible for severe SOS lesions (P < 0.001 and P = 0.005, respectively). Bevacizumab was identified as having a protective effect against the occurrence of SOS lesions (P = 0.005). Univariate analysis identified the score on the aspartate aminotransferase : platelets ratio index (APRI) as the most significant biological factor predictive of severe SOS lesions. Splenomegaly is also significantly associated with the occurrence of severe SOS lesions. The APRI score and splenomegaly are effective as factors predictive of SOS. Bevacizumab has a protective effect against SOS. © 2013 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

Childhood adversities and adult psychopathology in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R) III: associations with functional impairment related to DSM-IV disorders.

PubMed

McLaughlin, K A; Green, J G; Gruber, M J; Sampson, N A; Zaslavsky, A M; Kessler, R C

2010-05-01

Despite evidence that childhood adversities (CAs) are associated with increased risk of mental disorders, little is known about their associations with disorder-related impairment. We report the associations between CAs and functional impairment associated with 12-month DSM-IV disorders in a national sample. We used data from the US National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). Respondents completed diagnostic interviews that assessed 12-month DSM-IV disorder prevalence and impairment. Associations of 12 retrospectively reported CAs with impairment among cases (n=2242) were assessed using multiple regression analysis. Impairment measures included a dichotomous measure of classification in the severe range of impairment on the Sheehan Disability Scale (SDS) and a measure of self-reported number of days out of role due to emotional problems in the past 12 months. CAs were positively and significantly associated with impairment. Predictive effects of CAs on the SDS were particularly pronounced for anxiety disorders and were significant in predicting increased days out of role associated with mood, anxiety and disruptive behavior disorders. Predictive effects persisted throughout the life course and were not accounted for by disorder co-morbidity. CAs associated with maladaptive family functioning (MFF; parental mental illness, substance disorder, criminality, family violence, abuse, neglect) were more consistently associated with impairment than other CAs. The joint effects of co-morbid MFF CAs were significantly subadditive. Simulations suggest that CAs account for 19.6% of severely impairing disorders and 17.4% of days out of role. CAs predict greater disorder-related impairment, highlighting the ongoing clinical significance of CAs at every stage of the life course.

A Novel Grading Biomarker for the Prediction of Conversion From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Tong, Tong; Gao, Qinquan; Guerrero, Ricardo; Ledig, Christian; Chen, Liang; Rueckert, Daniel; Initiative, Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging

2017-01-01

Identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects who will progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is not only crucial in clinical practice, but also has a significant potential to enrich clinical trials. The purpose of this study is to develop an effective biomarker for an accurate prediction of MCI-to-AD conversion from magnetic resonance images. We propose a novel grading biomarker for the prediction of MCI-to-AD conversion. First, we comprehensively study the effects of several important factors on the performance in the prediction task including registration accuracy, age correction, feature selection, and the selection of training data. Based on the studies of these factors, a grading biomarker is then calculated for each MCI subject using sparse representation techniques. Finally, the grading biomarker is combined with age and cognitive measures to provide a more accurate prediction of MCI-to-AD conversion. Using the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, the proposed global grading biomarker achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the range of 79-81% for the prediction of MCI-to-AD conversion within three years in tenfold cross validations. The classification AUC further increases to 84-92% when age and cognitive measures are combined with the proposed grading biomarker. The obtained accuracy of the proposed biomarker benefits from the contributions of different factors: a tradeoff registration level to align images to the template space, the removal of the normal aging effect, selection of discriminative voxels, the calculation of the grading biomarker using AD and normal control groups, and the integration of sparse representation technique and the combination of cognitive measures. The evaluation on the ADNI dataset shows the efficacy of the proposed biomarker and demonstrates a significant contribution in accurate prediction of MCI-to-AD conversion.

Prediction of the noise from a propeller at angle of attack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krejsa, Eugene A.

1990-01-01

An analysis is presented to predict the noise of a propeller at angle of attack. The analysis is an extension of that reported by Mani (1990) which predicted the change in noise due to angle of attack due to both unsteady loading and to azimuthal variation of the radiation efficiency of steady noise sources. Mani's analysis, however, was limited to small angles of attack. The analysis reported herein removes this small angle limitation. Results from the analysis are compared with the data of Woodward (1987, 1988), for a single rotation propeller and for a counter rotating propeller. The comparison shows that including the effect of angle of attack on the steady noise sources significantly improves the agreement with data. Including higher order effects of angle of attack, while changing the predicted noise at far forward and aft angles, has little effect near the propeller plane.

Do labour market status transitions predict changes in psychological well-being?

PubMed

Flint, Ellen; Bartley, Mel; Shelton, Nicola; Sacker, Amanda

2013-09-01

The objective of this study was to establish the direction of causality in the relationship between labour market status and psychological well-being by investigating how transitions between secure employment, insecure employment, unemployment, permanent sickness and other economic inactivity predict changes in psychological well-being over a 16-year period. This study used data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2007). Psychological well-being was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Fixed effects models were utilised to investigate how transitions between labour market statuses predicted GHQ-12 score, adjusting for current labour market status and a range of covariates. After taking account of the contemporaneous effects of joblessness on psychological well-being, and the impact of a range of confounding factors, experiencing a transition from employment to joblessness was significantly predictive of poorer psychological well-being. Transitions into employment were not found to have equal and opposite effects: the positive effects of moving into work from unemployment were not as large as the negative effects of job loss. Transitions between secure and insecure employment did not independently predict changes in psychological well-being. A causal relationship between labour market status and psychological well-being is indicated.

Fluid-attenuated inversion recovery vascular hyperintensities in predicting cerebral hyperperfusion after intracranial arterial stenting.

PubMed

Wan, Chih-Cheng; Chen, David Yen-Ting; Tseng, Ying-Chi; Yan, Feng-Xian; Lee, Kun-Yu; Chiang, Chen-Hua; Chen, Chi-Jen

2017-08-01

No reliable imaging sign predicting cerebral hyperperfusion after intracranial arterial stenting (IAS) had been described in the literature. This study evaluated the effect of fluid-attenuated inversion recovery vascular hyperintensities (FVHs), also called hyperintense vessel sign on T2-weighted fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2-FLAIR) MR images, in predicting significant increase in cerebral blood flow (CBF) defined by arterial spin labeling (ASL) after IAS. We reviewed ASL CBF images and T2-FLAIR MR images before (D0), 1 day after (D1), and 3 days after (D3) IAS of 16 patients. T1-weighted MR images were used as cerebral maps for calculating CBF. The changes in CBF values after IAS were calculated in and compared among stenting and nonstenting vascular territories. An increase more than 50% of CBF was considered as hyperperfusion. The effect of FVHs in predicting hyperperfusion was calculated. The D1 CBF value was significantly higher than the D0 CBF value in stenting vascular, contralateral anterior cerebral artery, contralateral middle cerebral artery, and contralateral posterior cerebral artery (PCA) territories (all P < .05). The D1 and D3 CBF values were significantly higher than the D0 CBF value in overall vascular (P < .001), overall nonstenting vascular (P < .001), and ipsilateral PCA (P < .05) territories. The rate of more than 50% increases in CBF was significantly higher in patients who exhibited asymmetric FVHs than in those who did not exhibit these findings. FVHs could be a critical predictor of a significant increase in CBF after IAS.

Body composition in elderly people: effect of criterion estimates on predictive equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumgartner, R.N.; Heymsfield, S.B.; Lichtman, S.

1991-06-01

The purposes of this study were to determine whether there are significant differences between two- and four-compartment model estimates of body composition, whether these differences are associated with aqueous and mineral fractions of the fat-free mass (FFM); and whether the differences are retained in equations for predicting body composition from anthropometry and bioelectric resistance. Body composition was estimated in 98 men and women aged 65-94 y by using a four-compartment model based on hydrodensitometry, {sup 3}H{sub 2}O dilution, and dual-photon absorptiometry. These estimates were significantly different from those obtained by using Siri's two-compartment model. The differences were associated significantly (Pmore » less than 0.0001) with variation in the aqueous fraction of FFM. Equations for predicting body composition from anthropometry and resistance, when calibrated against two-compartment model estimates, retained these systematic errors. Equations predicting body composition in elderly people should be calibrated against estimates from multicompartment models that consider variability in FFM composition.« less

A multibody knee model with discrete cartilage prediction of tibio-femoral contact mechanics.

PubMed

Guess, Trent M; Liu, Hongzeng; Bhashyam, Sampath; Thiagarajan, Ganesh

2013-01-01

Combining musculoskeletal simulations with anatomical joint models capable of predicting cartilage contact mechanics would provide a valuable tool for studying the relationships between muscle force and cartilage loading. As a step towards producing multibody musculoskeletal models that include representation of cartilage tissue mechanics, this research developed a subject-specific multibody knee model that represented the tibia plateau cartilage as discrete rigid bodies that interacted with the femur through deformable contacts. Parameters for the compliant contact law were derived using three methods: (1) simplified Hertzian contact theory, (2) simplified elastic foundation contact theory and (3) parameter optimisation from a finite element (FE) solution. The contact parameters and contact friction were evaluated during a simulated walk in a virtual dynamic knee simulator, and the resulting kinematics were compared with measured in vitro kinematics. The effects on predicted contact pressures and cartilage-bone interface shear forces during the simulated walk were also evaluated. The compliant contact stiffness parameters had a statistically significant effect on predicted contact pressures as well as all tibio-femoral motions except flexion-extension. The contact friction was not statistically significant to contact pressures, but was statistically significant to medial-lateral translation and all rotations except flexion-extension. The magnitude of kinematic differences between model formulations was relatively small, but contact pressure predictions were sensitive to model formulation. The developed multibody knee model was computationally efficient and had a computation time 283 times faster than a FE simulation using the same geometries and boundary conditions.

Shift work and age as interactive predictors of body mass index among offshore workers.

PubMed

Parkes, Katharine R

2002-02-01

This study investigated shift pattern (day shifts versus day-night rotation) and its interactions with age, and with years of shiftwork exposure, as predictors of body mass index (BMI). Survey data were collected from offshore personnel working day shifts (N=787) or day-night shifts (N=787); information was obtained about shift pattern and years of shiftwork exposure, height, weight, demographic factors, and smoking habits. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to test a model in which BMI was predicted by additive and interactive effects of shift pattern, age, and exposure years with control for confounding variables. In a multivariate analysis (controlling for job type, education and smoking), BMI was predicted by the main effects of age and years of shiftwork exposure. Shift pattern was not significant as a main effect, but it interacted significantly with the curvilinear age term and with the linear and curvilinear components of shiftwork exposure. In the day shift group, age but not exposure predicted BMI; the opposite was true of the day-night shift group. The increase in BMI with an increase in age and exposure years was steeper for the day-night shift group than for the day shift group. The significant interaction effects found in this study were consistent with the view that continued exposure to day-night shift work gives rise to increases in BMI, over and above the normative effects of ageing on BMI shown by day-shift workers.

Seventy-meter antenna performance predictions: GTD analysis compared with traditional ray-tracing methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schredder, J. M.

1988-01-01

A comparative analysis was performed, using both the Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD) and traditional pathlength error analysis techniques, for predicting RF antenna gain performance and pointing corrections. The NASA/JPL 70 meter antenna with its shaped surface was analyzed for gravity loading over the range of elevation angles. Also analyzed were the effects of lateral and axial displacements of the subreflector. Significant differences were noted between the predictions of the two methods, in the effect of subreflector displacements, and in the optimal subreflector positions to focus a gravity-deformed main reflector. The results are of relevance to future design procedure.

Modeling the effect of shroud contact and friction dampers on the mistuned response of turbopumps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, Jerry H.; Yang, M.-T.

1994-01-01

The contract has been revised. Under the revised scope of work a reduced order model has been developed that can be used to predict the steady-state response of mistuned bladed disks. The approach has been implemented in a computer code, LMCC. It is concluded that: the reduced order model displays structural fidelity comparable to that of a finite element model of an entire bladed disk system with significantly improved computational efficiency; and, when the disk is stiff, both the finite element model and LMCC predict significantly more amplitude variation than was predicted by earlier models. This second result may have important practical ramifications, especially in the case of integrally bladed disks.

How coping styles, cognitive distortions, and attachment predict problem gambling among adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

Calado, Filipa; Alexandre, Joana; Griffiths, Mark D

2017-12-01

Background and aims Recent research suggests that youth problem gambling is associated with several factors, but little is known how these factors might influence or interact each other in predicting this behavior. Consequently, this is the first study to examine the mediation effect of coping styles in the relationship between attachment to parental figures and problem gambling. Methods A total of 988 adolescents and emerging adults were recruited to participate. The first set of analyses tested the adequacy of a model comprising biological, cognitive, and family variables in predicting youth problem gambling. The second set of analyses explored the relationship between family and individual variables in problem gambling behavior. Results The results of the first set of analyses demonstrated that the individual factors of gender, cognitive distortions, and coping styles showed a significant predictive effect on youth problematic gambling, and the family factors of attachment and family structure did not reveal a significant influence on this behavior. The results of the second set of analyses demonstrated that the attachment dimension of angry distress exerted a more indirect influence on problematic gambling, through emotion-focused coping style. Discussion This study revealed that some family variables can have a more indirect effect on youth gambling behavior and provided some insights in how some factors interact in predicting problem gambling. Conclusion These findings suggest that youth gambling is a multifaceted phenomenon, and that the indirect effects of family variables are important in estimating the complex social forces that might influence adolescent decisions to gamble.

Transfer Student Success: Educationally Purposeful Activities Predictive of Undergraduate GPA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fauria, Renee M.; Fuller, Matthew B.

2015-01-01

Researchers evaluated the effects of Educationally Purposeful Activities (EPAs) on transfer and nontransfer students' cumulative GPAs. Hierarchical, linear, and multiple regression models yielded seven statistically significant educationally purposeful items that influenced undergraduate student GPAs. Statistically significant positive EPAs for…

Pull out strength calculator for pedicle screws using a surrogate ensemble approach.

PubMed

Varghese, Vicky; Ramu, Palaniappan; Krishnan, Venkatesh; Saravana Kumar, Gurunathan

2016-12-01

Pedicle screw instrumentation is widely used in the treatment of spinal disorders and deformities. Currently, the surgeon decides the holding power of instrumentation based on the perioperative feeling which is subjective in nature. The objective of the paper is to develop a surrogate model which will predict the pullout strength of pedicle screw based on density, insertion angle, insertion depth and reinsertion. A Taguchi's orthogonal array was used to design an experiment to find the factors effecting pullout strength of pedicle screw. The pullout studies were carried using polyaxial pedicle screw on rigid polyurethane foam block according to American society for testing of materials (ASTM F543). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's honestly significant difference multiple comparison tests were done to find factor effect. Based on the experimental results, surrogate models based on Krigging, polynomial response surface and radial basis function were developed for predicting the pullout strength for different combination of factors. An ensemble of these surrogates based on weighted average surrogate model was also evaluated for prediction. Density, insertion depth, insertion angle and reinsertion have a significant effect (p <0.05) on pullout strength of pedicle screw. Weighted average surrogate performed the best in predicting the pull out strength amongst the surrogate models considered in this study and acted as insurance against bad prediction. A predictive model for pullout strength of pedicle screw was developed using experimental values and surrogate models. This can be used in pre-surgical planning and decision support system for spine surgeon. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence and personality when controlling for paternal trait level.

PubMed

Arslan, Ruben C; Penke, Lars; Johnson, Wendy; Iacono, William G; McGue, Matt

2014-01-01

Paternal age at conception has been found to predict the number of new genetic mutations. We examined the effect of father's age at birth on offspring intelligence, head circumference and personality traits. Using the Minnesota Twin Family Study sample we tested paternal age effects while controlling for parents' trait levels measured with the same precision as offspring's. From evolutionary genetic considerations we predicted a negative effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence, but not on other traits. Controlling for parental intelligence (IQ) had the effect of turning an initially positive association non-significantly negative. We found paternal age effects on offspring IQ and Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire Absorption, but they were not robustly significant, nor replicable with additional covariates. No other noteworthy effects were found. Parents' intelligence and personality correlated with their ages at twin birth, which may have obscured a small negative effect of advanced paternal age (<1% of variance explained) on intelligence. We discuss future avenues for studies of paternal age effects and suggest that stronger research designs are needed to rule out confounding factors involving birth order and the Flynn effect.

Splice Site Mutations in the ATP7A Gene

PubMed Central

Møller, Lisbeth Birk

2011-01-01

Menkes disease (MD) is caused by mutations in the ATP7A gene. We describe 33 novel splice site mutations detected in patients with MD or the milder phenotypic form, Occipital Horn Syndrome. We review these 33 mutations together with 28 previously published splice site mutations. We investigate 12 mutations for their effect on the mRNA transcript in vivo. Transcriptional data from another 16 mutations were collected from the literature. The theoretical consequences of splice site mutations, predicted with the bioinformatics tool Human Splice Finder, were investigated and evaluated in relation to in vivo results. Ninety-six percent of the mutations identified in 45 patients with classical MD were predicted to have a significant effect on splicing, which concurs with the absence of any detectable wild-type transcript in all 19 patients investigated in vivo. Sixty-seven percent of the mutations identified in 12 patients with milder phenotypes were predicted to have no significant effect on splicing, which concurs with the presence of wild-type transcript in 7 out of 9 patients investigated in vivo. Both the in silico predictions and the in vivo results support the hypothesis previously suggested by us and others, that the presence of some wild-type transcript is correlated to a milder phenotype. PMID:21494555

Remission of Depression in Parents: Links to Healthy Functioning in their Children

PubMed Central

Garber, Judy; Ciesla, Jeff A.; McCauley, Elizabeth; Diamond, Guy; Schloredt, Kelly A.

2010-01-01

This study examined whether improvement in parents’ depression was linked with changes in their children’s depressive symptoms and functioning. Participants were 223 parents and children ranging in age from 7–17 years old (Mean=12.13, SD=2.31); 126 parents were in treatment for depression and 97 parents were nondepressed. Children were evaluated six times over two years. Changes in parents’ depressive symptoms predicted changes in children’s depressive symptoms over and above the effect of time; children’s symptoms significantly predicted parents’ symptoms. Trajectories of children’s depressive symptoms differed significantly for children of remitted versus nonremitted depressed parents, and these differences were significantly predicted by their parents’ level of depression. The relation between parents’ and children’s depressive symptoms was partially mediated by parental acceptance. PMID:21291439

Hydrostatic Stress Effect On the Yield Behavior of Inconel 100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Phillip A.; Wilson, Christopher D.

2002-01-01

Classical metal plasticity theory assumes that hydrostatic stress has no effect on the yield and postyield behavior of metals. Recent reexaminations of classical theory have revealed a significant effect of hydrostatic stress on the yield behavior of notched geometries. New experiments and nonlinear finite element analyses (FEA) of Inconel 100 (IN 100) equal-arm bend and double-edge notch tension (DENT) test specimens have revealed the effect of internal hydrostatic tensile stresses on yielding. Nonlinear FEA using the von Mises (yielding is independent of hydrostatic stress) and the Drucker-Prager (yielding is linearly dependent on hydrostatic stress) yield functions was performed. In all test cases, the von Mises constitutive model, which is independent of hydrostatic pressure, overestimated the load for a given displacement or strain. Considering the failure displacements or strains, the Drucker-Prager FEMs predicted loads that were 3% to 5% lower than the von Mises values. For the failure loads, the Drucker Prager FEMs predicted strains that were 20% to 35% greater than the von Mises values. The Drucker-Prager yield function seems to more accurately predict the overall specimen response of geometries with significant internal hydrostatic stress influence.

On predicting receptivity to surface roughness in a compressible infinite swept wing boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Christian; Mughal, Shahid; Ashworth, Richard

2017-03-01

The receptivity of crossflow disturbances on an infinite swept wing is investigated using solutions of the adjoint linearised Navier-Stokes equations. The adjoint based method for predicting the magnitude of stationary disturbances generated by randomly distributed surface roughness is described, with the analysis extended to include both surface curvature and compressible flow effects. Receptivity is predicted for a broad spectrum of spanwise wavenumbers, variable freestream Reynolds numbers, and subsonic Mach numbers. Curvature is found to play a significant role in the receptivity calculations, while compressible flow effects are only found to marginally affect the initial size of the crossflow instability. A Monte Carlo type analysis is undertaken to establish the mean amplitude and variance of crossflow disturbances generated by the randomly distributed surface roughness. Mean amplitudes are determined for a range of flow parameters that are maximised for roughness distributions containing a broad spectrum of roughness wavelengths, including those that are most effective in generating stationary crossflow disturbances. A control mechanism is then developed where the short scale roughness wavelengths are damped, leading to significant reductions in the receptivity amplitude.

The Effects of Psychotherapy Treatment on Outcome in Bulimia Nervosa: Examining Indirect Effects through Emotion Regulation, Self-Directed Behavior, and Self-Discrepancy within the Mediation Model

PubMed Central

Peterson, Carol B.; Berg, Kelly C.; Crosby, Ross D.; Lavender, Jason M.; Accurso, Erin C.; Ciao, Anna C.; Smith, Tracey L.; Klein, Marjorie; Mitchell, James E.; Crow, Scott J.; Wonderlich, Stephen A.

2017-01-01

Objective The purpose of this investigation was to examine the indirect effects of Integrative Cognitive-Affective Therapy (ICAT-BN) and Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy-Enhanced (CBT-E) on bulimia nervosa (BN) treatment outcome through three hypothesized maintenance variables: emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy. Method Eighty adults with BN were randomized to 21 sessions of ICAT-BN or CBT-E. A regression-based bootstrapping approach was used to test the indirect effects of treatment on outcome at end of treatment through emotion regulation and self-directed behavior measured at mid-treatment, as well as the indirect effects of treatment at follow-up through emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy measured at end of treatment. Results No significant differences in outcome between treatment conditions were observed, and no significant direct or indirect effects were found. Examination of the individual paths within the indirect effects models revealed comparable treatment effects. Across treatments, improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior between baseline and mid-treatment predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores but not binge eating and purging frequency at end of treatment. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior also predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores at follow-up. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation predicted improvements in binge eating and baseline to end of treatment increases in positive self-directed behavior predicted improvements in purging at follow-up. Discussion These findings suggest that emotion regulation and self-directed behavior are important treatment targets and that ICAT-BN and CBT-E are comparable in modifying these psychological processes among individuals with BN. PMID:28117906

The effects of psychotherapy treatment on outcome in bulimia nervosa: Examining indirect effects through emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy within the mediation model.

PubMed

Peterson, Carol B; Berg, Kelly C; Crosby, Ross D; Lavender, Jason M; Accurso, Erin C; Ciao, Anna C; Smith, Tracey L; Klein, Marjorie; Mitchell, James E; Crow, Scott J; Wonderlich, Stephen A

2017-06-01

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the indirect effects of Integrative Cognitive-Affective Therapy (ICAT-BN) and Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy-Enhanced (CBT-E) on bulimia nervosa (BN) treatment outcome through three hypothesized maintenance variables: emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy. Eighty adults with BN were randomized to 21 sessions of ICAT-BN or CBT-E. A regression-based bootstrapping approach was used to test the indirect effects of treatment on outcome at end of treatment through emotion regulation and self-directed behavior measured at mid-treatment, as well as the indirect effects of treatment at follow-up through emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy measured at end of treatment. No significant differences in outcome between treatment conditions were observed, and no significant direct or indirect effects were found. Examination of the individual paths within the indirect effects models revealed comparable treatment effects. Across treatments, improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior between baseline and mid-treatment predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores but not binge eating and purging frequency at end of treatment. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior also predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores at follow-up. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation predicted improvements in binge eating and baseline to end of treatment increases in positive self-directed behavior predicted improvements in purging at follow-up. These findings suggest that emotion regulation and self-directed behavior are important treatment targets and that ICAT-BN and CBT-E are comparable in modifying these psychological processes among individuals with BN. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Effects of Prediction on the Perception for Own-Race and Other-Race Faces

PubMed Central

Ran, Guangming; Zhang, Qi; Chen, Xu; Pan, Yangu

2014-01-01

Human beings do not passively perceive important social features about others such as race and age in social interactions. Instead, it is proposed that humans might continuously generate predictions about these social features based on prior similar experiences. Pre-awareness of racial information conveyed by others' faces enables individuals to act in “culturally appropriate” ways, which is useful for interpersonal relations in different ethnicity groups. However, little is known about the effects of prediction on the perception for own-race and other-race faces. Here, we addressed this issue using high temporal resolution event-related potential techniques. In total, data from 24 participants (13 women and 11 men) were analyzed. It was found that the N170 amplitudes elicited by other-race faces, but not own-race faces, were significantly smaller in the predictable condition compared to the unpredictable condition, reflecting a switch to holistic processing of other-race faces when those faces were predictable. In this respect, top-down prediction about face race might contribute to the elimination of the other-race effect (one face recognition impairment). Furthermore, smaller P300 amplitudes were observed for the predictable than for unpredictable conditions, which suggested that the prediction of race reduced the neural responses of human brains. PMID:25422892

The Impact of Asking Intention or Self-Prediction Questions on Subsequent Behavior

PubMed Central

Wood, Chantelle; Conner, Mark; Miles, Eleanor; Sandberg, Tracy; Taylor, Natalie; Godin, Gaston; Sheeran, Paschal

2015-01-01

The current meta-analysis estimated the magnitude of the impact of asking intention and self-prediction questions on rates of subsequent behavior, and examined mediators and moderators of this question–behavior effect (QBE). Random-effects meta-analysis on 116 published tests of the effect indicated that intention/prediction questions have a small positive effect on behavior (d+ = 0.24). Little support was observed for attitude accessibility, cognitive dissonance, behavioral simulation, or processing fluency explanations of the QBE. Multivariate analyses indicated significant effects of social desirability of behavior/behavior domain (larger effects for more desirable and less risky behaviors), difficulty of behavior (larger effects for easy-to-perform behaviors), and sample type (larger effects among student samples). Although this review controls for co-occurrence of moderators in multivariate analyses, future primary research should systematically vary moderators in fully factorial designs. Further primary research is also needed to unravel the mechanisms underlying different variants of the QBE. PMID:26162771

The common occurrence of epistasis in the determination of human pigmentation and its impact on DNA-based pigmentation phenotype prediction.

PubMed

Pośpiech, Ewelina; Wojas-Pelc, Anna; Walsh, Susan; Liu, Fan; Maeda, Hitoshi; Ishikawa, Takaki; Skowron, Małgorzata; Kayser, Manfred; Branicki, Wojciech

2014-07-01

The role of epistatic effects in the determination of complex traits is often underlined but its significance in the prediction of pigmentation phenotypes has not been evaluated so far. The prediction of pigmentation from genetic data can be useful in forensic science to describe the physical appearance of an unknown offender, victim, or missing person who cannot be identified via conventional DNA profiling. Available forensic DNA prediction systems enable the reliable prediction of several eye and hair colour categories. However, there is still space for improvement. Here we verified the association of 38 candidate DNA polymorphisms from 13 genes and explored the extent to which interactions between them may be involved in human pigmentation and their impact on forensic DNA prediction in particular. The model-building set included 718 Polish samples and the model-verification set included 307 independent Polish samples and additional 72 samples from Japan. In total, 29 significant SNP-SNP interactions were found with 5 of them showing an effect on phenotype prediction. For predicting green eye colour, interactions between HERC2 rs12913832 and OCA2 rs1800407 as well as TYRP1 rs1408799 raised the prediction accuracy expressed by AUC from 0.667 to 0.697 and increased the prediction sensitivity by >3%. Interaction between MC1R 'R' variants and VDR rs731236 increased the sensitivity for light skin by >1% and by almost 3% for dark skin colour prediction. Interactions between VDR rs1544410 and TYR rs1042602 as well as between MC1R 'R' variants and HERC2 rs12913832 provided an increase in red/non-red hair prediction accuracy from an AUC of 0.902-0.930. Our results thus underline epistasis as a common phenomenon in human pigmentation genetics and demonstrate that considering SNP-SNP interactions in forensic DNA phenotyping has little impact on eye, hair and skin colour prediction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of stressor predictability and controllability on sleep, temperature, and fear behavior in mice.

PubMed

Yang, Linghui; Wellman, Laurie L; Ambrozewicz, Marta A; Sanford, Larry D

2011-06-01

Predictability and controllability are important factors in the persisting effects of stress. We trained mice with signaled, escapable shock (SES) and with signaled, inescapable shock (SIS) to determine whether shock predictability can be a significant factor in the effects of stress on sleep. Male BALB/cJ mice were implanted with transmitters for recording EEG, activity, and temperature via telemetry. After recovery from surgery, baseline sleep recordings were obtained for 2 days. The mice were then randomly assigned to SES (n = 9) and yoked SIS (n = 9) conditions. The mice were presented cues (90 dB, 2 kHz tones) that started 5.0 sec prior to and co-terminated with footshocks (0.5 mA; 5.0 sec maximum duration). SES mice always received shock but could terminate it by moving to the non-occupied chamber in a shuttlebox. SIS mice received identical tones and shocks, but could not alter shock duration. Twenty cue-shock pairings (1.0-min interstimulus intervals) were presented on 2 days (ST1 and ST2). Seven days after ST2, SES and SIS mice, in their home cages, were presented with cues identical to those presented during ST1 and ST2. NA. NA. NA. On each training and test day, EEG, activity and temperature were recorded for 20 hours. Freezing was scored in response to the cue alone. Compared to SIS mice, SES mice showed significantly increased REM after ST1 and ST2. Compared to SES mice, SIS mice showed significantly increased NREM after ST1 and ST2. Both groups showed reduced REM in response to cue presentation alone. Both groups showed similar stress-induced increases in temperature and freezing in response to the cue alone. These findings indicate that predictability (modeled by signaled shock) can play a significant role in the effects of stress on sleep.

Prediction of missing links and reconstruction of complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cheng-Jun; Zeng, An

2016-04-01

Predicting missing links in complex networks is of great significance from both theoretical and practical point of view, which not only helps us understand the evolution of real systems but also relates to many applications in social, biological and online systems. In this paper, we study the features of different simple link prediction methods, revealing that they may lead to the distortion of networks’ structural and dynamical properties. Moreover, we find that high prediction accuracy is not definitely corresponding to a high performance in preserving the network properties when using link prediction methods to reconstruct networks. Our work highlights the importance of considering the feedback effect of the link prediction methods on network properties when designing the algorithms.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul

2016-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning retrospective predictions at the decadal (5-years), seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; van den Hurk, B.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2016-12-01

The European consortium earth system model (EC-Earth; http://www.ec-earth.org) has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-08-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Mediators of the Association of Major Depressive Syndrome and Anxiety Syndrome with Postpartum Smoking Relapse

PubMed Central

Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Ji, Lingyun; Castro, Yessenia; Heppner, Whitney L.; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Costello, Tracy J.; Mullen, Patricia Dolan; Cofta-Woerpel, Ludmila; Velasquez, Mary M.; Greisinger, Anthony; Cinciripini, Paul M.; Wetter, David W.

2012-01-01

Objective Based on conceptual models of addiction and affect regulation, this study examined the mechanisms linking current major depressive syndrome (MDS) and anxiety syndrome (AS) to postpartum smoking relapse. Method Data were collected in a randomized clinical trial from 251 women who quit smoking during pregnancy. Simple and multiple mediation models of the relations of MDS and AS with postpartum relapse were examined using linear regression, continuation ratio logit models, and a Bootstrapping procedure to test the indirect effects. Results Both MDS and AS significantly predicted postpartum smoking relapse. After adjusting for MDS, AS significantly predicted relapse. However, after adjusting for AS, MDS no longer predicted relapse. Situationally-based self-efficacy, expectancies of controlling negative affect by means other than smoking, and various dimensions of primary and secondary tobacco dependence individually mediated the effect of both MDS and AS on relapse. In multiple mediation models, self-efficacy in negative/affective situations significantly mediated the effect of MDS and AS on relapse. Conclusion The findings underscore the negative impact of depression and anxiety on postpartum smoking relapse, and suggest that the effects of MDS on postpartum relapse may be largely explained by comorbid AS. The current investigation provided mixed support for affect regulation models of addiction. Cognitive and tobacco dependence-related aspects of negative and positive reinforcement significantly mediated the relationship of depression and anxiety with relapse, while affect and stress did not. The findings emphasize the unique role of low agency with respect to abstaining from smoking in negative affective situations as a key predictor of postpartum smoking relapse. PMID:22390410

Mediators of the association of major depressive syndrome and anxiety syndrome with postpartum smoking relapse.

PubMed

Correa-Fernández, Virmarie; Ji, Lingyun; Castro, Yessenia; Heppner, Whitney L; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Costello, Tracy J; Mullen, Patricia Dolan; Cofta-Woerpel, Ludmila; Velasquez, Mary M; Greisinger, Anthony; Cinciripini, Paul M; Wetter, David W

2012-08-01

Based on conceptual models of addiction and affect regulation, this study examined the mechanisms linking current major depressive syndrome (MDS) and anxiety syndrome (AS) to postpartum smoking relapse. Data were collected in a randomized clinical trial from 251 women who quit smoking during pregnancy. Simple and multiple mediation models of the relations of MDS and AS with postpartum relapse were examined using linear regression, continuation ratio logit models, and a bootstrapping procedure to test the indirect effects. Both MDS and AS significantly predicted postpartum smoking relapse. After adjusting for MDS, AS significantly predicted relapse. However, after adjusting for AS, MDS no longer predicted relapse. Situationally based self-efficacy, expectancies of controlling negative affect by means other than smoking, and various dimensions of primary and secondary tobacco dependence individually mediated the effect of both MDS and AS on relapse. In multiple mediation models, self-efficacy in negative/affective situations significantly mediated the effect of MDS and AS on relapse. The findings underscore the negative impact of depression and anxiety on postpartum smoking relapse and suggest that the effects of MDS on postpartum relapse may be largely explained by comorbid AS. The current investigation provided mixed support for affect regulation models of addiction. Cognitive and tobacco dependence-related aspects of negative and positive reinforcement significantly mediated the relationship of depression and anxiety with relapse, whereas affect and stress did not. The findings emphasize the unique role of low agency with respect to abstaining from smoking in negative affective situations as a key predictor of postpartum smoking relapse. © 2012 American Psychological Association

The effect of maternal psychopathology on parent-child agreement of child anxiety symptoms: A hierarchical linear modeling approach.

PubMed

Affrunti, Nicholas W; Woodruff-Borden, Janet

2015-05-01

The current study examined the effects of maternal anxiety, worry, depression, child age and gender on mother and child reports of child anxiety using hierarchical linear modeling. Participants were 73 mother-child dyads with children between the ages of 7 and 10 years. Reports of child anxiety symptoms, including symptoms of specific disorders (e.g., social phobia) were obtained using concordant versions of the Screen for Anxiety and Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED). Children reported significantly higher levels of anxiety symptoms relative to their mothers. Maternal worry and depression predicted for significantly lower levels of maternal-reported child anxiety and increasing discrepant reports. Maternal anxiety predicted for higher levels of maternal-reported child anxiety and decreasing discrepant reports. Maternal depression was associated with increased child-reported child anxiety symptoms. No significant effect of child age or gender was observed. Findings may inform inconsistencies in previous studies on reporter discrepancies. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Joint effects of water temperature and salinity on the expression of gill Hsp70 gene in Pinctada martensii (Dunker)].

PubMed

Wang, Ya-Nan; Wang, Hui; Zhu, Xiao-Wen; Luo, Ming-Ming; Liu, Zhi-Gang; Du, Xiao-Dong

2012-12-01

By using central composite experimental design and response surface method, the joint effects of water temperature (16-40 degrees C) and salinity (10-50) on the expression of gill Hsp70 gene in Pinctada martensii (Dunker) were studied under laboratory conditions. The results showed that the linear and quadratic effects of temperature on the expression of gill Hsp70 gene were significant, the linear effect of salinity was not significant, while the quadratic effect of salinity was significant. The interactive effect of temperature and salinity was not significant, and the effect of temperature was greater than that of salinity. The model equation of the gill Hsp70 gene expression was established, with the R2, Adj. R2, and Pred. R2 as high as 98.7%, 97.4%, and 89.2%, respectively, suggesting that the overarching predictive capability of the model was very satisfactory, and could be practicably applied for prediction. Through the optimization of the model, the expression of the gill Hsp70 gene reached its minimum (0.5276) when the temperature was 26.78 degrees C and the salinity was 29.33, with the desirability value being 98%. These experimental results could offer theoretical reference for the high expression of gill Hsp70 gene in P. martensii, the maintenance of cell internal environment stability, and the enhancement of P. martensii stress resistance.

Thoracic computed tomography is an effective screening modality in patients with penetrating injuries to the chest.

PubMed

Strumwasser, Aaron; Chong, Vincent; Chu, Eveline; Victorino, Gregory P

2016-09-01

The precise role of thoracic CT in penetrating chest trauma remains to be defined. We hypothesized that thoracic CT effectively screens hemodynamically normal patients with penetrating thoracic trauma to surgery vs. expectant management (NOM). A ten-year review of all penetrating torso cases was retrospectively analyzed from our urban University-based trauma center. We included hemodynamically normal patients (systolic blood pressure ≥90) with penetrating chest injuries that underwent screening thoracic CT. Hemodynamically unstable patients and diaphragmatic injuries were excluded. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated. A total of 212 patients (mean injury severity score=24, Abbreviated Injury Score for Chest=3.9) met inclusion criteria. Of these, 84.3% underwent NOM, 9.1% necessitated abdominal exploration, 6.6% underwent exploration for retained hemothorax/empyema, 6.6% underwent immediate thoracic exploration for significant injuries on chest CT, and 1.0% underwent delayed thoracic exploration for missed injuries. Thoracic CT had a sensitivity of 82%, specificity of 99%, positive predictive value of 90%, a negative predictive value of 99%, and an accuracy of 99% in predicting surgery vs. NOM. Thoracic CT has a negative predictive value of 99% in triaging hemodynamically normal patients with penetrating chest trauma. Screening thoracic CT successfully excludes surgery in patients with non-significant radiologic findings. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluation of Industry Standard Turbulence Models on an Axisymmetric Supersonic Compression Corner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeBonis, James R.

2015-01-01

Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computations of a shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction (SWBLI) created by a Mach 2.85 flow over an axisymmetric 30-degree compression corner were carried out. The objectives were to evaluate four turbulence models commonly used in industry, for SWBLIs, and to evaluate the suitability of this test case for use in further turbulence model benchmarking. The Spalart-Allmaras model, Menter's Baseline and Shear Stress Transport models, and a low-Reynolds number k- model were evaluated. Results indicate that the models do not accurately predict the separation location; with the SST model predicting the separation onset too early and the other models predicting the onset too late. Overall the Spalart-Allmaras model did the best job in matching the experimental data. However there is significant room for improvement, most notably in the prediction of the turbulent shear stress. Density data showed that the simulations did not accurately predict the thermal boundary layer upstream of the SWBLI. The effect of turbulent Prandtl number and wall temperature were studied in an attempt to improve this prediction and understand their effects on the interaction. The data showed that both parameters can significantly affect the separation size and location, but did not improve the agreement with the experiment. This case proved challenging to compute and should provide a good test for future turbulence modeling work.

Effects of psychosocial work factors on lifestyle changes: a cohort study.

PubMed

Allard, Karin Olofsson; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Mikkelsen, Sigurd; Rugulies, Reiner; Mors, Ole; Kærgaard, Anette; Kolstad, Henrik A; Kaerlev, Linda; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Hansen, Ase Marie; Bonde, Jens Peter

2011-12-01

To evaluate the effect of the demand-control-support model, the effort-reward imbalance model, and emotional demands on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index. This is a 2-year prospective cohort study of 3224 public sector employees. Measures were assessed with questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict changes in lifestyle factors. Low reward predicted smoking, low-decision latitude predicted being inactive, and high demands predicted high-alcohol consumption but only for men at follow-up even after controlling for potential confounders. There were no other significant findings in the expected direction except for some of the confounders. We found only limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that a poor psychosocial work environment is associated with an adverse lifestyle.

Forming impressions: effects of facial expression and gender stereotypes.

PubMed

Hack, Tay

2014-04-01

The present study of 138 participants explored how facial expressions and gender stereotypes influence impressions. It was predicted that images of smiling women would be evaluated more favorably on traits reflecting warmth, and that images of non-smiling men would be evaluated more favorably on traits reflecting competence. As predicted, smiling female faces were rated as more warm; however, contrary to prediction, perceived competence of male faces was not affected by facial expression. Participants' female stereotype endorsement was a significant predictor for evaluations of female faces; those who ascribed more strongly to traditional female stereotypes reported the most positive impressions of female faces displaying a smiling expression. However, a similar effect was not found for images of men; endorsement of traditional male stereotypes did not predict participants' impressions of male faces.

Food cue reactivity and craving predict eating and weight gain: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Boswell, Rebecca G; Kober, Hedy

2016-02-01

According to learning-based models of behavior, food cue reactivity and craving are conditioned responses that lead to increased eating and subsequent weight gain. However, evidence supporting this relationship has been mixed. We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis to assess the predictive effects of food cue reactivity and craving on eating and weight-related outcomes. Across 69 reported statistics from 45 published reports representing 3,292 participants, we found an overall medium effect of food cue reactivity and craving on outcomes (r = 0.33, p < 0.001; approximately 11% of variance), suggesting that cue exposure and the experience of craving significantly influence and contribute to eating behavior and weight gain. Follow-up tests revealed a medium effect size for the effect of both tonic and cue-induced craving on eating behavior (r = 0.33). We did not find significant differences in effect sizes based on body mass index, age, or dietary restraint. However, we did find that visual food cues (e.g. pictures and videos) were associated with a similar effect size to real food exposure and a stronger effect size than olfactory cues. Overall, the present findings suggest that food cue reactivity, cue-induced craving and tonic craving systematically and prospectively predict food-related outcomes. These results have theoretical, methodological, public health and clinical implications. © 2015 World Obesity.

The influence of sex difference on self-reference effects in a male-dominated culture.

PubMed

Song, Xuan; Shang, Rui; Bi, Qi; Zhang, Xin; Wu, Yanhong

2012-10-01

52 secondary school students from the Chaoshan, China, area, where males are highly valued, were examined for self-reference, mother-reference, and father-reference effects. Because the father is the primary role model in Chaoshan culture, it was predicted that male participants would demonstrate a father-reference effect while females would show a mother-reference effect. The results confirmed that females showed significant self-, mother-, and father-reference effects in terms of memory performance, while males showed only a significant father-reference effect and a marginally significant self-reference effect. This study highlights the importance of researching subcultures such as the Chaoshan subculture to gain a comprehensive understanding of self-construct.

Performance of bed-load transport equations relative to geomorphic significance: Predicting effective discharge and its transport rate

Treesearch

Jeffrey J. Barry; John M. Buffington; Peter Goodwin; John .G. King; William W. Emmett

2008-01-01

Previous studies assessing the accuracy of bed-load transport equations have considered equation performance statistically based on paired observations of measured and predicted bed-load transport rates. However, transport measurements were typically taken during low flows, biasing the assessment of equation performance toward low discharges, and because equation...

Ergonomics study on mobile phones for thumb physiology discomfort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendero, J. M. S.; Doon, M. E. R.; Quiogue, K. C. A.; Soneja, L. C.; Ong, N. R.; Sauli, Z.; Vairavan, R.

2017-09-01

The study was conducted on Filipino undergraduate college students and aimed to find out about the significant factors associated with mobile phone usage and its effect on thumb pain.A correlation-prediction analysisand Multiple Linear Regression was adopted and used as the main tool in determining the significant factors and coming up with predictive models on thumb related pain. With the use of the software Statistical Package for the Social Sciences or SPSS in conducting linear regression, 2 significant factors on thumb-related pain (percentage of time using portrait as screen orientation when text messaging, amount of time playing games using one hand in a day) were found.

Personality Traits and Combat Exposure as Predictors of Psychopathology Over Time

PubMed Central

Koffel, Erin; Kramer, Mark D.; Arbisi, Paul A.; Erbes, Christopher R.; Kaler, Matthew; Polusny, Melissa A.

2016-01-01

Background Research suggests that personality traits have both direct and indirect effects on the development of psychological symptoms, with indirect effects mediated by stressful or traumatic events. This study models the direct influence of personality traits on residualized changes in internalizing and externalizing symptoms following a stressful and potentially traumatic deployment, as well as the indirect influence of personality on symptom levels mediated by combat exposure. Method We utilized structural equation modeling with a longitudinal prospective study of 522 US National Guard soldiers deployed to Iraq. Analyses were based on self-report measures of personality, combat exposure, and internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Results Both pre-deployment Disconstraint and externalizing symptoms predicted combat exposure, which in turn predicted internalizing and externalizing symptoms. There was a significant indirect effect for pre-deployment externalizing symptoms on post-deployment externalizing via combat exposure (p < .01). Negative Emotionality and pre-deployment internalizing symptoms directly predicted post-deployment internalizing symptoms, but both were unrelated to combat exposure. No direct effects of personality on residualized changes in externalizing symptoms were found. Conclusions Baseline symptom dimensions had significant direct and indirect effects on post-deployment symptoms. Controlling for both pre-exposure personality and symptoms, combat experiences remained positively related to both internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Implications for diagnostic classification are discussed. PMID:26347314

Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for inpatient aggression: the effect of intellectual disability on accuracy.

PubMed

O'Shea, L E; Picchioni, M M; McCarthy, J; Mason, F L; Dickens, G L

2015-11-01

People with intellectual disability (ID) account for a large proportion of aggressive incidents in secure and forensic psychiatric services. Although the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management 20 (HCR-20) has good predictive validity in inpatient settings, it does not perform equally in all groups and there is little evidence for its efficacy in those with ID. A pseudo-prospective cohort study of the predictive efficacy of the HCR-20 for those with ID (n = 109) was conducted in a UK secure mental health setting using routinely collected risk data. Performance of the HCR-20 in the ID group was compared with a comparison group of adult inpatients without an ID (n = 504). Analysis controlled for potential covariates including security level, length of stay, gender and diagnosis. The HCR-20 total score was a significant predictor of any aggression and of physical aggression for both groups, although the area under the curve values did not reach the threshold for a large effect size. The clinical subscale performed significantly better in those without an ID compared with those with. The ID group had a greater number of relevant historical and risk management items. The clinicians' summary judgment significantly predicted both types of aggressive outcomes in the ID group, but did not predict either in those without an ID. This study demonstrates that, after controlling for a range of potential covariates, the HCR-20 is a significant predictor of inpatient aggression in people with an ID and performs as well as for a comparison group of mentally disordered individuals without ID. The potency of HCR-20 subscales and items varied between the ID and comparison groups suggesting important target areas for improved prediction and risk management interventions in those with ID. © 2015 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spectra of conditionalization and typicality in the multiverse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azhar, Feraz

2016-02-01

An approach to testing theories describing a multiverse, that has gained interest of late, involves comparing theory-generated probability distributions over observables with their experimentally measured values. It is likely that such distributions, were we indeed able to calculate them unambiguously, will assign low probabilities to any such experimental measurements. An alternative to thereby rejecting these theories, is to conditionalize the distributions involved by restricting attention to domains of the multiverse in which we might arise. In order to elicit a crisp prediction, however, one needs to make a further assumption about how typical we are of the chosen domains. In this paper, we investigate interactions between the spectra of available assumptions regarding both conditionalization and typicality, and draw out the effects of these interactions in a concrete setting; namely, on predictions of the total number of species that contribute significantly to dark matter. In particular, for each conditionalization scheme studied, we analyze how correlations between densities of different dark matter species affect the prediction, and explicate the effects of assumptions regarding typicality. We find that the effects of correlations can depend on the conditionalization scheme, and that in each case atypicality can significantly change the prediction. In doing so, we demonstrate the existence of overlaps in the predictions of different "frameworks" consisting of conjunctions of theory, conditionalization scheme and typicality assumption. This conclusion highlights the acute challenges involved in using such tests to identify a preferred framework that aims to describe our observational situation in a multiverse.

A longitudinal study of the role of children's altruism and forgiveness in the relation between parental aggressive discipline and anxiety of preschoolers in China.

PubMed

Kwok, Sylvia Y C L; Gu, Minmin; Cheung, Andy P S

2017-03-01

Using data collected over a 1-year period on a stratified random sample of 368 parents with children studying in nurseries (mean age=3.97years), this study assessed the predictive effects of parental corporal punishment, parental psychological aggression, preschoolers' altruism, and preschoolers' forgiveness on preschoolers' anxiety symptoms in Hong Kong, China. Results of hierarchical regression analyses showed that parental psychological aggression, preschoolers' altruism and preschoolers' forgiveness at Time 1 significantly predicted preschoolers' anxiety at Time 2, when controlling for the initial level of preschoolers' anxiety and important demographic variables that co-vary with preschoolers' anxiety. Moreover, preschoolers' altruism moderated the predictive effect of parental psychological aggression on preschoolers' anxiety symptoms. The study has several significant contributions. First, the study supports the predictive effect of parental aggressive discipline on preschoolers' anxiety. Second, we provide evidence that preschoolers' altruism and forgiveness negatively predict preschoolers' anxiety symptoms. Third, preschoolers' altruism and forgiveness are shown to protect them against parental psychological aggression. A dual-focus approach to intervention and prevention is proposed to reduce aggressive discipline by parents as well as to enhance altruism and forgiveness in children. Parent training programs could be provided to teach parents positive discipline strategies. Home-based or school-based interventions could be designed for preschool children to foster and enhance their altruism and forgiveness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing acute weight change in patients with schizophrenia treated with olanzapine, haloperidol, or risperidone.

PubMed

Basson, B R; Kinon, B J; Taylor, C C; Szymanski, K A; Gilmore, J A; Tollefson, G D

2001-04-01

Clinical factors predicting weight change in patients with schizophrenia and related disorders during acute treatment with the antipsychotic drugs olanzapine, risperidone, and haloperidol were sought through retrospective analyses. Six-week body-weight data from 2 trials, study 1 comparing olanzapine and haloperidol (N = 1,369) and study 2 olanzapine and risperidone (N = 268), were analyzed. Effects of 8 clinically relevant covariates--therapy, clinical outcome (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale), baseline body mass index (BBMI), increased appetite, age, gender, race, and dose--on weight were compared. In study 1, olanzapine (vs. haloperidol) therapy, better clinical outcome, lower BBMI, and nonwhite race significantly affected weight gain. Effects of increased appetite and male gender on weight gain were significant for olanzapine but not for haloperidol. In study 2, better clinical outcome, lower BBMI, and younger age significantly affected weight gain. Increased appetite was more frequent during olanzapine treatment than during haloperidol, but not significantly different from risperidone. Significant differences in effect on weight change were found between olanzapine and haloperidol but not between olanzapine and risperidone. No evidence was found that lower antipsychotic drug doses were associated with lower weight gain. This report identifies predictive factors of acute weight change in patients with schizophrenia. Similar factors across antipsychotic drugs in predicting greater weight gain included better clinical outcome, low BBMI, and nonwhite race. Factors differing between conventional (haloperidol) and atypical (olanzapine) agents included increased appetite and gender. Choice of atypical antipsychotic drug (olanzapine vs. risperidone) was of minor importance with regard to influence on acute weight gain.

Evaluation of Variable-Depth Liner Configurations for Increased Broadband Noise Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, M. G.; Watson, W. R.; Nark, D. M.; Howerton, B. M.

2015-01-01

This paper explores the effects of variable-depth geometry on the amount of noise reduction that can be achieved with acoustic liners. Results for two variable-depth liners tested in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube demonstrate significant broadband noise reduction. An impedance prediction model is combined with two propagation codes to predict corresponding sound pressure level profiles over the length of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The comparison of measured and predicted sound pressure level profiles is sufficiently favorable to support use of these tools for investigation of a number of proposed variable-depth liner configurations. Predicted sound pressure level profiles for these proposed configurations reveal a number of interesting features. Liner orientation clearly affects the sound pressure level profile over the length of the liner, but the effect on the total attenuation is less pronounced. The axial extent of attenuation at an individual frequency continues well beyond the location where the liner depth is optimally tuned to the quarter-wavelength of that frequency. The sound pressure level profile is significantly affected by the way in which variable-depth segments are distributed over the length of the liner. Given the broadband noise reduction capability for these liner configurations, further development of impedance prediction models and propagation codes specifically tuned for this application is warranted.

Prediction of cancer cell sensitivity to natural products based on genomic and chemical properties.

PubMed

Yue, Zhenyu; Zhang, Wenna; Lu, Yongming; Yang, Qiaoyue; Ding, Qiuying; Xia, Junfeng; Chen, Yan

2015-01-01

Natural products play a significant role in cancer chemotherapy. They are likely to provide many lead structures, which can be used as templates for the construction of novel drugs with enhanced antitumor activity. Traditional research approaches studied structure-activity relationship of natural products and obtained key structural properties, such as chemical bond or group, with the purpose of ascertaining their effect on a single cell line or a single tissue type. Here, for the first time, we develop a machine learning method to comprehensively predict natural products responses against a panel of cancer cell lines based on both the gene expression and the chemical properties of natural products. The results on two datasets, training set and independent test set, show that this proposed method yields significantly better prediction accuracy. In addition, we also demonstrate the predictive power of our proposed method by modeling the cancer cell sensitivity to two natural products, Curcumin and Resveratrol, which indicate that our method can effectively predict the response of cancer cell lines to these two natural products. Taken together, the method will facilitate the identification of natural products as cancer therapies and the development of precision medicine by linking the features of patient genomes to natural product sensitivity.

Predicted 25(OH)D score and colorectal cancer risk according to vitamin D receptor expression.

PubMed

Jung, Seungyoun; Qian, Zhi Rong; Yamauchi, Mai; Bertrand, Kimberly A; Fitzgerald, Kathryn C; Inamura, Kentaro; Kim, Sun A; Mima, Kosuke; Sukawa, Yasutaka; Zhang, Xuehong; Wang, Molin; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A; Wu, Kana; Fuchs, Charles S; Chan, Andrew T; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ng, Kimmie; Cho, Eunyoung; Ogino, Shuji; Nishihara, Reiko

2014-08-01

Despite accumulating evidence for the preventive effect of vitamin D on colorectal carcinogenesis, its precise mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesized that vitamin D was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer with high-level vitamin D receptor (VDR) expression, but not with risk of tumor with low-level VDR expression. Among 140,418 participants followed from 1986 through 2008 in the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study, we identified 1,059 incident colorectal cancer cases with tumor molecular data. The predicted 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] score was developed using the known determinants of plasma 25(OH)D. We estimated the HR for cancer subtypes using the duplication method Cox proportional hazards model. A higher predicted 25(OH)D score was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer irrespective of VDR expression level (P(heterogeneity) for subtypes = 0.75). Multivariate HRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D scores were 0.48 (0.30-0.78) for VDR-negative tumor and 0.56 (0.42-0.75) for VDR-positive tumor. Similarly, the significant inverse associations of the predicted 25(OH)D score with colorectal cancer risk did not significantly differ by KRAS, BRAF, or PIK3CA status (P(heterogeneity) for subtypes ≥ 0.22). A higher predicted vitamin D score was significantly associated with a lower colorectal cancer risk, regardless of VDR status and other molecular features examined. The preventive effect of vitamin D on colorectal carcinogenesis may not totally depend on tumor factors. Host factors (such as local and systemic immunity) may need to be considered. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Erosion of belief and disbelief: effects of religiosity and negative affect on beliefs in the paranormal and supernatural.

PubMed

Beck, R; Miller, J P

2001-04-01

The authors investigated the effects of religiosity and negative affect on beliefs in the paranormal and supernatural among 94 undergraduate students enrolled in psychology classes at a small, private U.S. university. They hypothesized that religiosity would predict differential beliefs in the supernatural versus the paranormal but that negative affect would attenuate these beliefs. In addition, the authors predicted that belief in the supernatural and negative affect would interact to predict belief in the paranormal. Overall, the results were consistent with predictions. The religious participants were skeptical of paranormal phenomena but were accepting of supernatural phenomena. In addition, increased reports of negative affect over the preceding year appeared to attenuate belief in the supernatural for the religious participants. By contrast, for the nonreligious participants, increased belief in both the supernatural and paranormal was predicted when reports of negative affect were high. Finally, the interaction of supernatural belief and negative affect significantly predicted belief in the paranormal.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

2000-01-01

Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

PubMed

Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

2017-09-01

Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

Risk factors predict post-traumatic stress disorder differently in men and women

PubMed Central

Christiansen, Dorte M; Elklit, Ask

2008-01-01

Background About twice as many women as men develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), even though men as a group are exposed to more traumatic events. Exposure to different trauma types does not sufficiently explain why women are more vulnerable. Methods The present work examines the effect of age, previous trauma, negative affectivity (NA), anxiety, depression, persistent dissociation, and social support on PTSD separately in men and women. Subjects were exposed to either a series of explosions in a firework factory near a residential area or to a high school stabbing incident. Results Some gender differences were found in the predictive power of well known risk factors for PTSD. Anxiety predicted PTSD in men, but not in women, whereas the opposite was found for depression. Dissociation was a better predictor for PTSD in women than in men in the explosion sample but not in the stabbing sample. Initially, NA predicted PTSD better in women than men in the explosion sample, but when compared only to other significant risk factors, it significantly predicted PTSD for both men and women in both studies. Previous traumatic events and age did not significantly predict PTSD in either gender. Conclusion Gender differences in the predictive value of social support on PTSD appear to be very complex, and no clear conclusions can be made based on the two studies included in this article. PMID:19017412

Predictive and External Validity of a Pre-Market Study to Determine the Most Effective Pictorial Health Warning Label Content for Cigarette Packages

PubMed Central

Thrasher, James F.; Reid, Jessica L.; Hammond, David

2016-01-01

Abstract Introduction: Studies examining cigarette package pictorial health warning label (HWL) content have primarily used designs that do not allow determination of effectiveness after repeated, naturalistic exposure. This research aimed to determine the predictive and external validity of a pre-market evaluation study of pictorial HWLs. Methods: Data were analyzed from: (1) a pre-market convenience sample of 544 adult smokers who participated in field experiments in Mexico City before pictorial HWL implementation (September 2010); and (2) a post-market population-based representative sample of 1765 adult smokers in the Mexican administration of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey after pictorial HWL implementation. Participants in both samples rated six HWLs that appeared on cigarette packs, and also ranked HWLs with four different themes. Mixed effects models were estimated for each sample to assess ratings of relative effectiveness for the six HWLs, and to assess which HWL themes were ranked as the most effective. Results: Pre- and post-market data showed similar relative ratings across the six HWLs, with the least and most effective HWLs consistently differentiated from other HWLs. Models predicting rankings of HWL themes in post-market sample indicated: (1) pictorial HWLs were ranked as more effective than text-only HWLs; (2) HWLs with both graphic and “lived experience” content outperformed symbolic content; and, (3) testimonial content significantly outperformed didactic content. Pre-market data showed a similar pattern of results, but with fewer statistically significant findings. Conclusions: The study suggests well-designed pre-market studies can have predictive and external validity, helping regulators select HWL content. PMID:26377516

Predictive and External Validity of a Pre-Market Study to Determine the Most Effective Pictorial Health Warning Label Content for Cigarette Packages.

PubMed

Huang, Li-Ling; Thrasher, James F; Reid, Jessica L; Hammond, David

2016-05-01

Studies examining cigarette package pictorial health warning label (HWL) content have primarily used designs that do not allow determination of effectiveness after repeated, naturalistic exposure. This research aimed to determine the predictive and external validity of a pre-market evaluation study of pictorial HWLs. Data were analyzed from: (1) a pre-market convenience sample of 544 adult smokers who participated in field experiments in Mexico City before pictorial HWL implementation (September 2010); and (2) a post-market population-based representative sample of 1765 adult smokers in the Mexican administration of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Survey after pictorial HWL implementation. Participants in both samples rated six HWLs that appeared on cigarette packs, and also ranked HWLs with four different themes. Mixed effects models were estimated for each sample to assess ratings of relative effectiveness for the six HWLs, and to assess which HWL themes were ranked as the most effective. Pre- and post-market data showed similar relative ratings across the six HWLs, with the least and most effective HWLs consistently differentiated from other HWLs. Models predicting rankings of HWL themes in post-market sample indicated: (1) pictorial HWLs were ranked as more effective than text-only HWLs; (2) HWLs with both graphic and "lived experience" content outperformed symbolic content; and, (3) testimonial content significantly outperformed didactic content. Pre-market data showed a similar pattern of results, but with fewer statistically significant findings. The study suggests well-designed pre-market studies can have predictive and external validity, helping regulators select HWL content. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bilateral versus unilateral cochlear implants in children: a study of spoken language outcomes.

PubMed

Sarant, Julia; Harris, David; Bennet, Lisa; Bant, Sharyn

2014-01-01

Although it has been established that bilateral cochlear implants (CIs) offer additional speech perception and localization benefits to many children with severe to profound hearing loss, whether these improved perceptual abilities facilitate significantly better language development has not yet been clearly established. The aims of this study were to compare language abilities of children having unilateral and bilateral CIs to quantify the rate of any improvement in language attributable to bilateral CIs and to document other predictors of language development in children with CIs. The receptive vocabulary and language development of 91 children was assessed when they were aged either 5 or 8 years old by using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (fourth edition), and either the Preschool Language Scales (fourth edition) or the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals (fourth edition), respectively. Cognitive ability, parent involvement in children's intervention or education programs, and family reading habits were also evaluated. Language outcomes were examined by using linear regression analyses. The influence of elements of parenting style, child characteristics, and family background as predictors of outcomes were examined. Children using bilateral CIs achieved significantly better vocabulary outcomes and significantly higher scores on the Core and Expressive Language subscales of the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals (fourth edition) than did comparable children with unilateral CIs. Scores on the Preschool Language Scales (fourth edition) did not differ significantly between children with unilateral and bilateral CIs. Bilateral CI use was found to predict significantly faster rates of vocabulary and language development than unilateral CI use; the magnitude of this effect was moderated by child age at activation of the bilateral CI. In terms of parenting style, high levels of parental involvement, low amounts of screen time, and more time spent by adults reading to children facilitated significantly better vocabulary and language outcomes. In terms of child characteristics, higher cognitive ability and female sex were predictive of significantly better language outcomes. When family background factors were examined, having tertiary-educated primary caregivers and a family history of hearing loss were significantly predictive of better outcomes. Birth order was also found to have a significant negative effect on both vocabulary and language outcomes, with each older sibling predicting a 5 to 10% decrease in scores. Children with bilateral CIs achieved significantly better vocabulary outcomes, and 8-year-old children with bilateral CIs had significantly better language outcomes than did children with unilateral CIs. These improvements were moderated by children's ages at both first and second CIs. The outcomes were also significantly predicted by a number of factors related to parenting, child characteristics, and family background. Fifty-one percent of the variance in vocabulary outcomes and between 59 to 69% of the variance in language outcomes was predicted by the regression models.

Evaluation of Antidiabetic and Antihyperlipidemic Effects of Hydroalcoholic Extract of Leaves of Ocimum tenuiflorum (Lamiaceae) and Prediction of Biological Activity of its Phytoconstituents

PubMed Central

Parasuraman, Subramani; Balamurugan, Subramani; Christapher, Parayil Varghese; Petchi, Rajendran Ramesh; Yeng, Wong Yeng; Sujithra, Jeyabalan; Vijaya, Chockalingam

2015-01-01

Objective: The aim was to evaluate the anti-diabetic and anti-hyperlipidemic effects of hydroalcoholic extract of leaves of Ocimum tenuiflorum (Lamiaceae) and prediction of biological activities of its phytoconstituents using in vivo anti-diabetic model and in silico analysis respectively. Materials and Methods: The leaves of O. tenuiflorum were extracted with 60% ethanol, and the extract was used for further pharmacological screening. The acute toxicity of the extract was evaluated as per the guidelines set by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, revised draft guidelines 423. The oral anti-diabetic activity of the hydroalcoholic extract of O. tenuiflorum (125, 250 and 500 mg/kg) was studied against streptozotocin (STZ) (50 mg/kg; i.p.) + nicotinamide (120 mg/kg; i.p.) induced diabetes mellitus. The animals were treated with the investigational plant extract and standard drug (glibenclamide) for 21 consecutive days and the effect of hydroalcoholic extract of O. tenuiflorum on blood glucose levels was measured at regular intervals. At the end of the study, blood samples were collected from all the animals for biochemical estimation, then the animals were sacrificed and the liver and kidney were collected for organ weight analysis. Prediction for pharmacological and toxicological properties of phytoconstituents of O. tenuiflorum was carried out using online web tools such as online pass prediction and lazar toxicity prediction. Results: The hydroalcoholic extract of O. tenuiflorum showed significant anti-diabetic and anti-hyperlipidemic activity at 250 and 500 mg/kg, and this effect was comparable with that of glibenclamide. Predicted biological activities of phytoconstituents of O. tenuiflorum showed presence of various pharmacological actions, which includes anti-diabetic and anti-hyperlipidemic activities. Prediction of toxicological properties of phytoconstituents of O. tenuiflorum did not show any major toxic effects. Conclusion: The hydroalcoholic extract of O. tenuiflorum showed significant anti-diabetic and anti-hyperlipidemic activity against STZ + nicotinamide induced diabetes mellitus in rats. Further studies are required to confirm the anti-diabetic and anti-hyperlipidemic activities of individual phytoconstituents of O. tenuiflorum. PMID:25829789

Workplace harassment, stress, and drinking behavior over time: Gender differences in a national sample

PubMed Central

Rospenda, Kathleen M.; Fujishiro, Kaori; Shannon, Candice A.; Richman, Judith A.

2008-01-01

Research suggests that workplace harassment (WH) significantly predicts alcohol use and problem drinking behavior, but has generally failed to consider concurrent effects of other sources of stress. This two-wave study (n=1418) is the first to explore whether sexual harassment (SH) and generalized workplace harassment (GWH) predict increased drinking independently of the effects of job and life stress, and whether effects differ by gender, in a nationally representative sample. SH and GWH predicted increases in problem drinking one year later for men but not women, while life stress was associated with increased problem drinking for women but not men. This study confirms the importance of examining the associations between different types of stressors and drinking-related outcomes in gendered contexts. PMID:18384975

Observed and predicted reproduction of Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lasier, Peter J.; Hardin, Ian R.

2010-01-01

Chronic toxicities of Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3- to Ceriodaphnia dubia were evaluated in low- and moderate-hardness waters using a three-brood reproduction test method. Toxicity tests of anion mixtures were used to determine interaction effects and to produce models predicting C. dubia reproduction. Effluents diluted with low- and moderate-hardness waters were tested with animals acclimated to low- and moderate-hardness conditions to evaluate the models and to assess the effects of hardness and acclimation. Sulfate was significantly less toxic than Cl- and HCO3- in both types of water. Chloride and HCO3- toxicities were similar in low-hardness water, but HCO3- was the most toxic in moderate-hardness water. Low acute-to-chronic ratios indicate that toxicities of these anions will decrease quickly with dilution. Hardness significantly reduced Cl- and SO42- toxicity but had little effect on HCO3-. Chloride toxicity decreased with an increase in Na+ concentration, and CO3- toxicity may have been reduced by the dissolved organic carbon in effluent. Multivariate models using measured anion concentrations in effluents with low to moderate hardness levels provided fairly accurate predictions of reproduction. Determinations of toxicity for several effluents differed significantly depending on the hardness of the dilution water and the hardness of the water used to culture test animals. These results can be used to predict the contribution of elevated anion concentrations to the chronic toxicity of effluents; to identify effluents that are toxic due to contaminants other than Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3-; and to provide a basis for chemical substitutions in manufacturing processes.

Empirical study of the dependence of the results of multivariable flexible survival analyses on model selection strategy.

PubMed

Binquet, C; Abrahamowicz, M; Mahboubi, A; Jooste, V; Faivre, J; Bonithon-Kopp, C; Quantin, C

2008-12-30

Flexible survival models, which avoid assumptions about hazards proportionality (PH) or linearity of continuous covariates effects, bring the issues of model selection to a new level of complexity. Each 'candidate covariate' requires inter-dependent decisions regarding (i) its inclusion in the model, and representation of its effects on the log hazard as (ii) either constant over time or time-dependent (TD) and, for continuous covariates, (iii) either loglinear or non-loglinear (NL). Moreover, 'optimal' decisions for one covariate depend on the decisions regarding others. Thus, some efficient model-building strategy is necessary.We carried out an empirical study of the impact of the model selection strategy on the estimates obtained in flexible multivariable survival analyses of prognostic factors for mortality in 273 gastric cancer patients. We used 10 different strategies to select alternative multivariable parametric as well as spline-based models, allowing flexible modeling of non-parametric (TD and/or NL) effects. We employed 5-fold cross-validation to compare the predictive ability of alternative models.All flexible models indicated significant non-linearity and changes over time in the effect of age at diagnosis. Conventional 'parametric' models suggested the lack of period effect, whereas more flexible strategies indicated a significant NL effect. Cross-validation confirmed that flexible models predicted better mortality. The resulting differences in the 'final model' selected by various strategies had also impact on the risk prediction for individual subjects.Overall, our analyses underline (a) the importance of accounting for significant non-parametric effects of covariates and (b) the need for developing accurate model selection strategies for flexible survival analyses. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multistep-Ahead Air Passengers Traffic Prediction with Hybrid ARIMA-SVMs Models

PubMed Central

Ming, Wei; Xiong, Tao

2014-01-01

The hybrid ARIMA-SVMs prediction models have been established recently, which take advantage of the unique strength of ARIMA and SVMs models in linear and nonlinear modeling, respectively. Built upon this hybrid ARIMA-SVMs models alike, this study goes further to extend them into the case of multistep-ahead prediction for air passengers traffic with the two most commonly used multistep-ahead prediction strategies, that is, iterated strategy and direct strategy. Additionally, the effectiveness of data preprocessing approaches, such as deseasonalization and detrending, is investigated and proofed along with the two strategies. Real data sets including four selected airlines' monthly series were collected to justify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Empirical results demonstrate that the direct strategy performs better than iterative one in long term prediction case while iterative one performs better in the case of short term prediction. Furthermore, both deseasonalization and detrending can significantly improve the prediction accuracy for both strategies, indicating the necessity of data preprocessing. As such, this study contributes as a full reference to the planners from air transportation industries on how to tackle multistep-ahead prediction tasks in the implementation of either prediction strategy. PMID:24723814

Modeling and evaluating of surface roughness prediction in micro-grinding on soda-lime glass considering tool characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jun; Gong, Yadong; Wang, Jinsheng

2013-11-01

The current research of micro-grinding mainly focuses on the optimal processing technology for different materials. However, the material removal mechanism in micro-grinding is the base of achieving high quality processing surface. Therefore, a novel method for predicting surface roughness in micro-grinding of hard brittle materials considering micro-grinding tool grains protrusion topography is proposed in this paper. The differences of material removal mechanism between convention grinding process and micro-grinding process are analyzed. Topography characterization has been done on micro-grinding tools which are fabricated by electroplating. Models of grain density generation and grain interval are built, and new predicting model of micro-grinding surface roughness is developed. In order to verify the precision and application effect of the surface roughness prediction model proposed, a micro-grinding orthogonally experiment on soda-lime glass is designed and conducted. A series of micro-machining surfaces which are 78 nm to 0.98 μm roughness of brittle material is achieved. It is found that experimental roughness results and the predicting roughness data have an evident coincidence, and the component variable of describing the size effects in predicting model is calculated to be 1.5×107 by reverse method based on the experimental results. The proposed model builds a set of distribution to consider grains distribution densities in different protrusion heights. Finally, the characterization of micro-grinding tools which are used in the experiment has been done based on the distribution set. It is concluded that there is a significant coincidence between surface prediction data from the proposed model and measurements from experiment results. Therefore, the effectiveness of the model is demonstrated. This paper proposes a novel method for predicting surface roughness in micro-grinding of hard brittle materials considering micro-grinding tool grains protrusion topography, which would provide significant research theory and experimental reference of material removal mechanism in micro-grinding of soda-lime glass.

Empirical models for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.

2017-07-01

Many empirical relationships for the earthquake ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate earthquakes to represent intraplate earthquakes. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of earthquake ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with earthquake magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled earthquake ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive models to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the earthquake. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the earthquake. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the existing relationships.

Closed loop models for analyzing the effects of simulator characteristics. [digital simulation of human operators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D. L.

1978-01-01

The optimal control model of the human operator is used to develop closed loop models for analyzing the effects of (digital) simulator characteristics on predicted performance and/or workload. Two approaches are considered: the first utilizes a continuous approximation to the discrete simulation in conjunction with the standard optimal control model; the second involves a more exact discrete description of the simulator in a closed loop multirate simulation in which the optimal control model simulates the pilot. Both models predict that simulator characteristics can have significant effects on performance and workload.

Relaxational effects in radiating stellar collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govender, Megan; Maartens, Roy; Maharaj, Sunil D.

1999-12-01

Relaxational effects in stellar heat transport can in many cases be significant. Relativistic Fourier-Eckart theory is inherently quasi-stationary, and cannot incorporate these effects. The effects are naturally accounted for in causal relativistic thermodynamics, which provides an improved approximation to kinetic theory. Recent results, based on perturbations of a static star, show that relaxation effects can produce a significant increase in the central temperature and temperature gradient for a given luminosity. We use a simple stellar model that allows for non-perturbative deviations from staticity, and confirms qualitatively the predictions of the perturbative models.

Flight Evaluation of Center-TRACON Automation System Trajectory Prediction Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, David H.; Green, Steven M.

1998-01-01

Two flight experiments (Phase 1 in October 1992 and Phase 2 in September 1994) were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) trajectory prediction process. The Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) Boeing 737 based at Langley Research Center flew 57 arrival trajectories that included cruise and descent segments; at the same time, descent clearance advisories from CTAS were followed. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared with the trajectories predicted by the CTAS trajectory synthesis algorithms and airplane Flight Management System (FMS). Trajectory prediction accuracy was evaluated over several levels of cockpit automation that ranged from a conventional cockpit to performance-based FMS vertical navigation (VNAV). Error sources and their magnitudes were identified and measured from the flight data. The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. The most significant effect related to flight guidance was the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. FMS lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and airplane performance model errors.

Noninvasive scoring system for significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Mei-Zhu; Ye, Linglong; Jin, Li-Xin; Ren, Yan-Dan; Yu, Xiao-Fang; Liu, Xiao-Bin; Zhang, Ru-Mian; Fang, Kuangnan; Pan, Jin-Shui

2017-03-01

Although a liver stiffness measurement-based model can precisely predict significant intrahepatic inflammation, transient elastography is not commonly available in a primary care center. Additionally, high body mass index and bilirubinemia have notable effects on the accuracy of transient elastography. The present study aimed to create a noninvasive scoring system for the prediction of intrahepatic inflammatory activity related to chronic hepatitis B, without the aid of transient elastography. A total of 396 patients with chronic hepatitis B were enrolled in the present study. Liver biopsies were performed, liver histology was scored using the Scheuer scoring system, and serum markers and liver function were investigated. Inflammatory activity scoring models were constructed for both hepatitis B envelope antigen (+) and hepatitis B envelope antigen (-) patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve were 86.00%, 84.80%, 62.32%, 95.39%, and 0.9219, respectively, in the hepatitis B envelope antigen (+) group and 91.89%, 89.86%, 70.83%, 97.64%, and 0.9691, respectively, in the hepatitis B envelope antigen (-) group. Significant inflammation related to chronic hepatitis B can be predicted with satisfactory accuracy by using our logistic regression-based scoring system.

The Ranschburg Effect: Tests of the Guessing-Bias and Proactive Interference Hypotheses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Michael F.; Schwartz, Marian

1977-01-01

The guessing-bias and proactive interference hypotheses of the Ranschburg Effect were investigated by giving three groups different instructions as to guessing during recall. Results failed to support the prediction that the effect should be reduced or eliminated on shift trials. Neither hypothesis received significant support. (CHK)

Potential for thermal tolerance to mediate climate change effects on three members of a cool temperate lizard genus, Niveoscincus.

PubMed

Caldwell, Amanda J; While, Geoffrey M; Beeton, Nicholas J; Wapstra, Erik

2015-08-01

Climatic changes are predicted to be greater in higher latitude and mountainous regions but species specific impacts are difficult to predict. This is partly due to inter-specific variance in the physiological traits which mediate environmental temperature effects at the organismal level. We examined variation in the critical thermal minimum (CTmin), critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and evaporative water loss rates (EWL) of a widespread lowland (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and two range restricted highland (N. microlepidotus and N. greeni) members of a cool temperate Tasmanian lizard genus. The widespread lowland species had significantly higher CTmin and CTmax and significantly lower EWL than both highland species. Implications of inter-specific variation in thermal tolerance for activity were examined under contemporary and future climate change scenarios. Instances of air temperatures below CTmin were predicted to decline in frequency for the widespread lowland and both highland species. Air temperatures of high altitude sites were not predicted to exceed the CTmax of either highland species throughout the 21st century. In contrast, the widespread lowland species is predicted to experience air temperatures in excess of CTmax on 1 or 2 days by three of six global circulation models from 2068-2096. To estimate climate change effects on activity we reran the thermal tolerance models using minimum and maximum temperatures selected for activity. A net gain in available activity time was predicted under climate change for all three species; while air temperatures were predicted to exceed maximum temperatures selected for activity with increasing frequency, the change was not as great as the predicted decline in air temperatures below minimum temperatures selected for activity. We hypothesise that the major effect of rising air temperatures under climate change is an increase in available activity period for both the widespread lowland and highland species. The consequences of a greater available activity period will depend on the extent to which changes in climate alters other related factors, such as the nature and level of competition between the respective species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of dose reduction on bone strength prediction using finite element analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anitha, D.; Subburaj, Karupppasamy; Mei, Kai; Kopp, Felix K.; Foehr, Peter; Noel, Peter B.; Kirschke, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas

2016-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of dose reduction, by means of tube exposure reduction, on bone strength prediction from finite-element (FE) analysis. Fresh thoracic mid-vertebrae specimens (n = 11) were imaged, using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT), at different intensities of X-ray tube exposures (80, 150, 220 and 500 mAs). Bone mineral density (BMD) was estimated from the mid-slice of each specimen from MDCT images. Differences in image quality and geometry of each specimen were measured. FE analysis was performed on all specimens to predict fracture load. Paired t-tests were used to compare the results obtained, using the highest CT dose (500 mAs) as reference. Dose reduction had no significant impact on FE-predicted fracture loads, with significant correlations obtained with reference to 500 mAs, for 80 mAs (R2  = 0.997, p < 0.001), 150 mAs (R2 = 0.998, p < 0.001) and 220 mAs (R2 = 0.987, p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in volume quantification between the different doses examined. CT imaging radiation dose could be reduced substantially to 64% with no impact on strength estimates obtained from FE analysis. Reduced CT dose will enable early diagnosis and advanced monitoring of osteoporosis and associated fracture risk.

Coercive and Prosocial Fathering, Antisocial Personality, and Growth in Children's Post-Divorce Noncompliance

PubMed Central

DeGarmo, David S.

2009-01-01

The study employed multiple methods including direct observation of fathering behaviors and child noncompliance to better address our understanding of the quantity and quality of divorced father contact. A weighted county sample of 230 divorced-father families with a focal child aged 4 to 11 years was employed to test whether fathers' antisocial personality (ASP) moderated effects of monthly contact with children in predicting children's observed noncompliance over 18 months. Latent growth models obtained significant individual differences in levels of noncompliance and growth rates. ASP significantly moderated the beneficial impact of fathers' monthly contact. Fathers' observed parenting practices significantly predicted levels but not growth rates. Parenting did not account for the effect of Contact × ASP suggesting both environmental and potentially genetic influences on child adjustment. Findings were robust across boys and girls and age levels. Implications for preventive intervention are discussed. PMID:20438456

Statistical Modeling of Zr/Hf Extraction using TBP-D2EHPA Mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaeinejhad Jirandehi, Vahid; Haghshenas Fatmehsari, Davoud; Firoozi, Sadegh; Taghizadeh, Mohammad; Keshavarz Alamdari, Eskandar

2012-12-01

In the present work, response surface methodology was employed for the study and prediction of Zr/Hf extraction curves in a solvent extraction system using D2EHPA-TBP mixtures. The effect of change in the levels of temperature, nitric acid concentration, and TBP/D2EHPA ratio (T/D) on the Zr/Hf extraction/separation was studied by the use of central composite design. The results showed a statistically significant effect of T/D, nitric acid concentration, and temperature on the extraction percentage of Zr and Hf. In the case of Zr, a statistically significant interaction was found between T/D and nitric acid, whereas for Hf, both interactive terms between temperature and T/D and nitric acid were significant. Additionally, the extraction curves were profitably predicted applying the developed statistical regression equations; this approach is faster and more economical compared with experimentally obtained curves.

Predicting adverse neonatal outcomes in fetuses with abdominal wall defects using prenatal risk factors.

PubMed

Nicholas, Sara S; Stamilio, David M; Dicke, Jeffery M; Gray, Diana L; Macones, George A; Odibo, Anthony O

2009-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether prenatal variables can predict adverse neonatal outcomes in fetuses with abdominal wall defects. A retrospective cohort study that used ultrasound and neonatal records for all cases of gastroschisis and omphalocele seen over a 16-year period. Cases with adverse neonatal outcomes were compared with noncases for multiple candidate predictive factors. Univariable and multivariable statistical methods were used to develop the prediction models, and effectiveness was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Of 80 fetuses with gastroschisis, 29 (36%) had the composite adverse outcome, compared with 15 of 33 (47%) live neonates with omphalocele. Intrauterine growth restriction was the only significant variable in gastroschisis, whereas exteriorized liver was the only predictor in omphalocele. The areas under the curve for the prediction models with gastroschisis and omphalocele are 0.67 and 0.74, respectively. Intrauterine growth restriction and exteriorization of the liver are significant predictors of adverse neonatal outcome with gastroschisis and omphalocele.

Morphological features of IFN-γ–stimulated mesenchymal stromal cells predict overall immunosuppressive capacity

PubMed Central

Klinker, Matthew W.; Marklein, Ross A.; Lo Surdo, Jessica L.; Wei, Cheng-Hong

2017-01-01

Human mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) lines can vary significantly in their functional characteristics, and the effectiveness of MSC-based therapeutics may be realized by finding predictive features associated with MSC function. To identify features associated with immunosuppressive capacity in MSCs, we developed a robust in vitro assay that uses principal-component analysis to integrate multidimensional flow cytometry data into a single measurement of MSC-mediated inhibition of T-cell activation. We used this assay to correlate single-cell morphological data with overall immunosuppressive capacity in a cohort of MSC lines derived from different donors and manufacturing conditions. MSC morphology after IFN-γ stimulation significantly correlated with immunosuppressive capacity and accurately predicted the immunosuppressive capacity of MSC lines in a validation cohort. IFN-γ enhanced the immunosuppressive capacity of all MSC lines, and morphology predicted the magnitude of IFN-γ–enhanced immunosuppressive activity. Together, these data identify MSC morphology as a predictive feature of MSC immunosuppressive function. PMID:28283659

Adverse Childhood Experiences Predict Alcohol Consumption Patterns Among Kenyan Mothers.

PubMed

Goodman, Michael L; Grouls, Astrid; Chen, Catherine X; Keiser, Philip H; Gitari, Stanley

2017-04-16

We analyze whether adverse childhood experiences predict weekly alcohol consumption patterns of Kenyan mothers and their partners. Randomly selected respondents (n = 1,976) were asked about adverse childhood experiences and alcohol consumption patterns for themselves and their partners. Fixed effect models were used to determine odds of reporting weekly alcohol consumption and the number of beverages typically consumed, controlling for wealth, age, education, and partner alcohol consumption. Cumulative adverse childhood experiences predicted higher odds of weekly alcohol consumption of the respondent and her partner. Childhood exposure to physical abuse, emotional neglect, and mental illness in the household significantly increased odds of weekly alcohol consumption by the respondent. More drinks consumed per typical session were higher among respondents with more cumulative adversities. Physical and emotional abuse significantly predicted number of drinks typically consumed by the respondent. To our knowledge, this is the first study to explore and find associations between adverse childhood experiences and alcohol consumption in Kenya. Consistent with high-income settings, exposure to childhood adversities predicted greater alcohol consumption among Kenyan women.

Voidage correction algorithm for unresolved Euler-Lagrange simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askarishahi, Maryam; Salehi, Mohammad-Sadegh; Radl, Stefan

2018-04-01

The effect of grid coarsening on the predicted total drag force and heat exchange rate in dense gas-particle flows is investigated using Euler-Lagrange (EL) approach. We demonstrate that grid coarsening may reduce the predicted total drag force and exchange rate. Surprisingly, exchange coefficients predicted by the EL approach deviate more significantly from the exact value compared to results of Euler-Euler (EE)-based calculations. The voidage gradient is identified as the root cause of this peculiar behavior. Consequently, we propose a correction algorithm based on a sigmoidal function to predict the voidage experienced by individual particles. Our correction algorithm can significantly improve the prediction of exchange coefficients in EL models, which is tested for simulations involving Euler grid cell sizes between 2d_p and 12d_p . It is most relevant in simulations of dense polydisperse particle suspensions featuring steep voidage profiles. For these suspensions, classical approaches may result in an error of the total exchange rate of up to 30%.

Optimization of global model composed of radial basis functions using the term-ranking approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Peng; Tao, Chao, E-mail: taochao@nju.edu.cn; Liu, Xiao-Jun

2014-03-15

A term-ranking method is put forward to optimize the global model composed of radial basis functions to improve the predictability of the model. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined by numerical simulation and experimental data. Numerical simulations indicate that this method can significantly lengthen the prediction time and decrease the Bayesian information criterion of the model. The application to real voice signal shows that the optimized global model can capture more predictable component in chaos-like voice data and simultaneously reduce the predictable component (periodic pitch) in the residual signal.

An integrative approach to predicting the functional effects of small indels in non-coding regions of the human genome

PubMed Central

Ferlaino, Michael; Rogers, Mark F.; Shihab, Hashem A.; Mort, Matthew; Cooper, David N.; Gaunt, Tom R.; Campbell, Colin

2018-01-01

Background Small insertions and deletions (indels) have a significant influence in human disease and, in terms of frequency, they are second only to single nucleotide variants as pathogenic mutations. As the majority of mutations associated with complex traits are located outside the exome, it is crucial to investigate the potential pathogenic impact of indels in non-coding regions of the human genome. Results We present FATHMM-indel, an integrative approach to predict the functional effect, pathogenic or neutral, of indels in non-coding regions of the human genome. Our method exploits various genomic annotations in addition to sequence data. When validated on benchmark data, FATHMM-indel significantly outperforms CADD and GAVIN, state of the art models in assessing the pathogenic impact of non-coding variants. FATHMM-indel is available via a web server at indels.biocompute.org.uk. Conclusions FATHMM-indel can accurately predict the functional impact and prioritise small indels throughout the whole non-coding genome. PMID:28985712

Living Well with Living Wills: Application of Protection Motivation Theory to Living Wills Among Older Caucasian and African American Adults

PubMed Central

ALLEN, REBECCA S.; PHILLIPS, LAURA L.; PEKMEZI, DOROTHY; CROWTHER, MARTHA R.; PRENTICE-DUNN, STEVEN

2009-01-01

Using protection motivation theory, we examined racial differences in intent to complete a living will, rational problem solving (e.g., information seeking), and maladaptive coping responses (i.e., wishful thinking) to a health crisis. Sixty healthy, older adults without living wills responded to written vignettes, including information about living wills as an effective coping mechanism to avoid a health crisis. Use of adaptive coping responses predicted intent to execute a living will. A significant race-by-threat interaction predicted use of rational problem solving, with Caucasians more likely to seek information in response to perceived threat in comparison with African Americans. A significant race-by-adaptive-coping interaction predicted maladaptive coping, indicating that Caucasians were more variable in their maladaptive responses. The effectiveness of health care messages regarding living wills for older adults may be enhanced by focusing on racial differences in response to perceived health threat and perceived adaptive coping information. PMID:19337566

Self-Determination and Meaningful Work: Exploring Socioeconomic Constraints.

PubMed

Allan, Blake A; Autin, Kelsey L; Duffy, Ryan D

2016-01-01

This study examined a model of meaningful work among a diverse sample of working adults. From the perspectives of Self-Determination Theory and the Psychology of Working Framework, we tested a structural model with social class and work volition predicting SDT motivation variables, which in turn predicted meaningful work. Partially supporting hypotheses, work volition was positively related to internal regulation and negatively related to amotivation, whereas social class was positively related to external regulation and amotivation. In turn, internal regulation was positively related to meaningful work, whereas external regulation and amotivation were negatively related to meaningful work. Indirect effects from work volition to meaningful work via internal regulation and amotivation were significant, and indirect effects from social class to meaningful work via external regulation and amotivation were significant. This study highlights the important relations between SDT motivation variables and meaningful work, especially the large positive relation between internal regulation and meaningful work. However, results also reveal that work volition and social class may play critical roles in predicting internal regulation, external regulation, and amotivation.

Predicting academic performance and clinical competency for international dental students: seeking the most efficient and effective measures.

PubMed

Stacey, D Graham; Whittaker, John M

2005-02-01

Measures used in the selection of international dental students to a U.S. D.D.S. program were examined to identify the grouping that most effectively and efficiently predicted academic performance and clinical competency. Archival records from the International Dental Program (IDP) at Loma Linda University provided data on 171 students who had trained in countries outside the United States. The students sought admission to the D.D.S. degree program, successful completion of which qualified them to sit for U.S. licensure. As with most dental schools, competition is high for admission to the D.D.S. program. The study's goal was to identify what measures contributed to a fair and accurate selection process for dental school applicants from other nations. Multiple regression analyses identified National Board Part II and dexterity measures as significant predictors of academic performance and clinical competency. National Board Part I, TOEFL, and faculty interviews added no significant additional help in predicting eventual academic performance and clinical competency.

Preliminary Empirical Models for Predicting Shrinkage, Part Geometry and Metallurgical Aspects of Ti-6Al-4V Shaped Metal Deposition Builds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar-Palafox, Gustavo; Gault, Rosemary; Ridgway, Keith

2011-12-01

Shaped Metal Deposition (SMD) is an additive manufacturing process which creates parts layer by layer by weld depositions. In this work, empirical models that predict part geometry (wall thickness and outer diameter) and some metallurgical aspects (i.e. surface texture, portion of finer Widmanstätten microstructure) for the SMD process were developed. The models are based on an orthogonal fractional factorial design of experiments with four factors at two levels. The factors considered were energy level (a relationship between heat source power and the rate of raw material input.), step size, programmed diameter and travel speed. The models were validated using previous builds; the prediction error for part geometry was under 11%. Several relationships between the factors and responses were identified. Current had a significant effect on wall thickness; thickness increases with increasing current. Programmed diameter had a significant effect on percentage of shrinkage; this decreased with increasing component size. Surface finish decreased with decreasing step size and current.

Living Well with Living Wills: Application of Protection Motivation Theory to Living Wills Among Older Caucasian and African American Adults.

PubMed

Allen, Rebecca S; Phillips, Laura L; Pekmezi, Dorothy; Crowther, Martha R; Prentice-Dunn, Steven

2009-01-01

Using protection motivation theory, we examined racial differences in intent to complete a living will, rational problem solving (e.g., information seeking), and maladaptive coping responses (i.e., wishful thinking) to a health crisis. Sixty healthy, older adults without living wills responded to written vignettes, including information about living wills as an effective coping mechanism to avoid a health crisis. Use of adaptive coping responses predicted intent to execute a living will. A significant race-by-threat interaction predicted use of rational problem solving, with Caucasians more likely to seek information in response to perceived threat in comparison with African Americans. A significant race-by-adaptive-coping interaction predicted maladaptive coping, indicating that Caucasians were more variable in their maladaptive responses. The effectiveness of health care messages regarding living wills for older adults may be enhanced by focusing on racial differences in response to perceived health threat and perceived adaptive coping information.

An integrative approach to predicting the functional effects of small indels in non-coding regions of the human genome.

PubMed

Ferlaino, Michael; Rogers, Mark F; Shihab, Hashem A; Mort, Matthew; Cooper, David N; Gaunt, Tom R; Campbell, Colin

2017-10-06

Small insertions and deletions (indels) have a significant influence in human disease and, in terms of frequency, they are second only to single nucleotide variants as pathogenic mutations. As the majority of mutations associated with complex traits are located outside the exome, it is crucial to investigate the potential pathogenic impact of indels in non-coding regions of the human genome. We present FATHMM-indel, an integrative approach to predict the functional effect, pathogenic or neutral, of indels in non-coding regions of the human genome. Our method exploits various genomic annotations in addition to sequence data. When validated on benchmark data, FATHMM-indel significantly outperforms CADD and GAVIN, state of the art models in assessing the pathogenic impact of non-coding variants. FATHMM-indel is available via a web server at indels.biocompute.org.uk. FATHMM-indel can accurately predict the functional impact and prioritise small indels throughout the whole non-coding genome.

Predicting toxic effects of copper on aquatic biota in mineralized areas by using the Biotic Ligand Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kathleen S.; Ranville, James F.; Adams, M.; Choate, LaDonna M.; Church, Stan E.; Fey, David L.; Wanty, Richard B.; Crock, James G.

2006-01-01

The chemical speciation of metals influences their biological effects. The Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) is a computational approach to predict chemical speciation and acute toxicological effects of metals on aquatic biota. Recently, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency incorporated the BLM into their regulatory water-quality criteria for copper. Results from three different laboratory copper toxicity tests were compared with BLM predictions for simulated test-waters. This was done to evaluate the ability of the BLM to accurately predict the effects of hardness and concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron on aquatic toxicity. In addition, we evaluated whether the BLM and the three toxicity tests provide consistent results. Comparison of BLM predictions with two types of Ceriodaphnia dubia toxicity tests shows that there is fairly good agreement between predicted LC50 values computed by the BLM and LC50 values determined from the two toxicity tests. Specifically, the effect of increasing calcium concentration (and hardness) on copper toxicity appears to be minimal. Also, there is fairly good agreement between the BLM and the two toxicity tests for test solutions containing elevated DOC, for which the LC50 is 3-to-5 times greater (less toxic) than the LC50 for the lower-DOC test water. This illustrates the protective effects of DOC on copper toxicity and demonstrates the ability of the BLM to predict these protective effects. In contrast, for test solutions with added iron there is a decrease in LC50 values (increase in toxicity) in results from the two C. dubia toxicity tests, and the agreement between BLM LC50 predictions and results from these toxicity tests is poor. The inability of the BLM to account for competitive iron binding to DOC or DOC fractionation may be a significant shortcoming of the BLM for predicting site- specific water-quality criteria in streams affected by iron-rich acidic drainage in mined and mineralized areas.

Deep cultural ancestry and human development indicators across nation states

PubMed Central

Sookias, Roland B.; Passmore, Samuel

2018-01-01

How historical connections, events and cultural proximity can influence human development is being increasingly recognized. One aspect of history that has only recently begun to be examined is deep cultural ancestry, i.e. the vertical relationships of descent between cultures, which can be represented by a phylogenetic tree of descent. Here, we test whether deep cultural ancestry predicts the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) for 44 Eurasian countries, using language ancestry as a proxy for cultural relatedness and controlling for three additional factors—geographical proximity, religion and former communism. While cultural ancestry alone predicts HDI and its subcomponents (income, health and education indices), when geographical proximity is included only income and health indices remain significant and the effect is small. When communism and religion variables are included, cultural ancestry is no longer a significant predictor; communism significantly negatively predicts HDI, income and health indices, and Muslim percentage of the population significantly negatively predicts education index, although the latter result may not be robust. These findings indicate that geographical proximity and recent cultural history—especially communism—are more important than deep cultural factors in current human development and suggest the efficacy of modern policy initiatives is not tightly constrained by cultural ancestry. PMID:29765628

Deep cultural ancestry and human development indicators across nation states.

PubMed

Sookias, Roland B; Passmore, Samuel; Atkinson, Quentin D

2018-04-01

How historical connections, events and cultural proximity can influence human development is being increasingly recognized. One aspect of history that has only recently begun to be examined is deep cultural ancestry, i.e. the vertical relationships of descent between cultures, which can be represented by a phylogenetic tree of descent. Here, we test whether deep cultural ancestry predicts the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) for 44 Eurasian countries, using language ancestry as a proxy for cultural relatedness and controlling for three additional factors-geographical proximity, religion and former communism. While cultural ancestry alone predicts HDI and its subcomponents (income, health and education indices), when geographical proximity is included only income and health indices remain significant and the effect is small. When communism and religion variables are included, cultural ancestry is no longer a significant predictor; communism significantly negatively predicts HDI, income and health indices, and Muslim percentage of the population significantly negatively predicts education index, although the latter result may not be robust. These findings indicate that geographical proximity and recent cultural history-especially communism-are more important than deep cultural factors in current human development and suggest the efficacy of modern policy initiatives is not tightly constrained by cultural ancestry.

Horizontal axis wind turbine post stall airfoil characteristics synthesization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tangler, James L.; Ostowari, Cyrus

1995-01-01

Blade-element/momentum performance prediction codes are routinely used for wind turbine design and analysis. A weakness of these codes is their inability to consistently predict peak power upon which the machine structural design and cost are strongly dependent. The purpose of this study was to compare post-stall airfoil characteristics synthesization theory to a systematically acquired wind tunnel data set in which the effects of aspect ratio, airfoil thickness, and Reynolds number were investigated. The results of this comparison identified discrepancies between current theory and the wind tunnel data which could not be resolved. Other factors not previously investigated may account for these discrepancies and have a significant effect on peak power prediction.

Functional recovery patterns in seriously injured automotive crash victims.

PubMed

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S; Crandall, Jeff

2016-09-01

The functional capacity index (FCI) is designed to predict functional loss 12 months post-injury for each injury in the 2008 Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) manual on a scale from 0 (death) to 100 (full recovery), but FCI has never been validated. This study compared FCI predicted loss with patient-reported 12-month outcomes as measured through the Short Form 36 (SF-36) health assessment survey. Using follow-up data collected on 2,858 adult car crash occupants in the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) database, we compared FCI predicted outcomes to occupants' Physical Component Summary (PCS) scores, which are weighted averages of the SF-36 items addressing physical function. Our analyses included descriptive statistics, plots of typical recovery patterns, and a mixed effects regression model that describes PCS as a function of FCI, demographics, comorbidities, and injury pattern while also adjusting for the occupants' pre-crash physical capabilities. We further examined injuries in patients who report a significant drop in PCS 12 months post-crash despite being predicted to fully recover. At baseline, the CIREN population exhibited PCS scores similar to the overall population (mean = 51.1, SD = 10.3). Twelve months post-crash, occupants with predicted impairment (FCI < 100) report a substantial decrease in physical function, and those who were predicted to fully recover still report some, albeit less, impairment. In the multivariate mixed-effects regression model, FCI is a strongly significant (P-value <.0001) predictor of PCS, with each 1-point drop in FCI predicting a 0.27-point drop in PCS. Maximum AIS severities in the head, spine, and lower extremity body regions were also significantly associated with PCS (P-values <.05). Among occupants who were expected to fully recover but who report a significant drop in PCS at 12 months, spinal fractures without cord involvement account for 5 of the 10 most common AIS 2+ injuries. FCI was associated with 12-month outcomes but may not adequately describe the recovery from some head, spine, and lower extremity injuries. Some occupants who were expected to recover still report functional loss 12 months post-injury.

Remission of depression in parents: links to healthy functioning in their children.

PubMed

Garber, Judy; Ciesla, Jeff A; McCauley, Elizabeth; Diamond, Guy; Schloredt, Kelly A

2011-01-01

This study examined whether improvement in parents' depression was linked with changes in their children's depressive symptoms and functioning. Participants were 223 parents and children ranging in age from 7 to 17 years old (M = 12.13, SD =2.31); 126 parents were in treatment for depression and 97 parents were nondepressed. Children were evaluated 6 times over 2 years. Changes in parents' depressive symptoms predicted changes in children's depressive symptoms over and above the effect of time; children's symptoms significantly predicted parents' symptoms. Trajectories of children's depressive symptoms differed significantly for children of remitted versus nonremitted depressed parents, and these differences were significantly predicted by their parents' level of depression. The relation between parents' and children's depressive symptoms was partially mediated by parental acceptance. © 2011 The Authors. Child Development © 2011 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

View of God as benevolent and forgiving or punishing and judgmental predicts HIV disease progression.

PubMed

Ironson, Gail; Stuetzle, Rick; Ironson, Dale; Balbin, Elizabeth; Kremer, Heidemarie; George, Annie; Schneiderman, Neil; Fletcher, Mary Ann

2011-12-01

This study assessed the predictive relationship between View of God beliefs and change in CD4-cell and Viral Load (VL) in HIV positive people over an extended period. A diverse sample of HIVseropositive participants (N = 101) undergoing comprehensive psychological assessment and blood draws over the course of 4 years completed the View of God Inventory with subscales measuring Positive View (benevolent/forgiving) and Negative View of God (harsh/judgmental/punishing). Adjusting for initial disease status, age, gender, ethnicity, education, and antiretroviral medication (at every 6-month visit), a Positive View of God predicted significantly slower disease-progression (better preservation of CD4-cells, better control of VL), whereas a Negative View of God predicted faster disease-progression over 4 years. Effect sizes were greater than those previously demonstrated for psychosocial variables known to predict HIV-disease-progression, such as depression and coping. Results remained significant even after adjusting for church attendance and psychosocial variables (health behaviors, mood, and coping). These results provide good initial evidence that spiritual beliefs may predict health outcomes.

Progress Toward Improving Jet Noise Predictions in Hot Jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khavaran, Abbas; Kenzakowski, Donald C.

2007-01-01

An acoustic analogy methodology for improving noise predictions in hot round jets is presented. Past approaches have often neglected the impact of temperature fluctuations on the predicted sound spectral density, which could be significant for heated jets, and this has yielded noticeable acoustic under-predictions in such cases. The governing acoustic equations adopted here are a set of linearized, inhomogeneous Euler equations. These equations are combined into a single third order linear wave operator when the base flow is considered as a locally parallel mean flow. The remaining second-order fluctuations are regarded as the equivalent sources of sound and are modeled. It is shown that the hot jet effect may be introduced primarily through a fluctuating velocity/enthalpy term. Modeling this additional source requires specialized inputs from a RANS-based flowfield simulation. The information is supplied using an extension to a baseline two equation turbulence model that predicts total enthalpy variance in addition to the standard parameters. Preliminary application of this model to a series of unheated and heated subsonic jets shows significant improvement in the acoustic predictions at the 90 degree observer angle.

Working alliance, real relationship, session quality, and client improvement in psychodynamic psychotherapy: A longitudinal actor partner interdependence model.

PubMed

Kivlighan, Dennis M; Hill, Clara E; Gelso, Charles J; Baumann, Ellen

2016-03-01

We used the Actor Partner Interdependence Model (APIM; Kashy & Kenny, 2000) to examine the dyadic associations of 74 clients and 23 therapists in their evaluations of working alliance, real relationship, session quality, and client improvement over time in ongoing psychodynamic or interpersonal psychotherapy. There were significant actor effects for both therapists and clients, with the participant's own ratings of working alliance and real relationship independently predicting their own evaluations of session quality. There were significant client partner effects, with clients' working alliance and real relationship independently predicting their therapists' evaluations of session quality. The client partner real relationship effect was stronger in later sessions than in earlier sessions. Therapists' real relationship ratings (partner effect) were a stronger predictor of clients' session quality ratings in later sessions than in earlier sessions. Therapists' working alliance ratings (partner effect) were a stronger predictor of clients' session quality ratings when clients made greater improvement than when clients made lesser improvement. For clients' session outcome ratings, there were complex three-way interactions, such that both Client real relationship and working alliance interacted with client improvement and time in treatment to predict clients' session quality. These findings strongly suggest both individual and partner effects when clients and therapists evaluate psychotherapy process and outcome. Implications for research and practice are discussed. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Effects of life satisfaction and psychache on risk for suicidal behaviour: a cross-sectional study based on data from Chinese undergraduates

PubMed Central

You, Zhiqi; Song, Juanjuan; Wu, Caizhi; Qin, Ping; Zhou, Zongkui

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine predictive power of psychache and life satisfaction on risks for suicidal ideation and suicide attempt among young people. Design A cross-sectional study. Setting Data were collected from an online survey in Wuhan, China. Participants 5988 university students from six universities were selected by a stratified cluster sampling method. Primary and secondary outcome measures Suicidal ideation and suicide attempt at some point of the students’ lifetime were the outcomes of interest. Results Students with suicidal ideation or attempted suicide reported a lower level of life satisfaction and high degree of psychache than counterparts without suicidal ideation or attempt. Regression analyses indicated that life satisfaction and psychache were significantly associated with the risk of suicidal ideation and the risk of suicidal attempt. Though psychache showed a relatively stronger predictive power than life satisfaction, the effect of the two factors remained significant when they were individually adjusted for personal demographic characteristics. However, when the two factors were included in the model simultaneously to adjust for each other, psychache could fully explain the association between life satisfaction and suicidal attempt. Life satisfaction remained to contribute unique variance in the statistical prediction of suicidal ideation. Conclusions Psychache and life satisfaction both have a significant predictive power on risk for suicidal behaviour, and life satisfaction could relieve the predictive power of psychache when suicidal behaviour is just starting. Shneidman's theory that psychache is the pre-eminent psychological cause of suicide is perhaps applicable only to a more serious form of suicidal behaviour. PMID:24657883

The role of adipokines in the rapid antidepressant effects of ketamine.

PubMed

Machado-Vieira, R; Gold, P W; Luckenbaugh, D A; Ballard, E D; Richards, E M; Henter, I D; De Sousa, R T; Niciu, M J; Yuan, P; Zarate, C A

2017-01-01

We previously found that body mass index (BMI) strongly predicted response to ketamine. Adipokines have a key role in metabolism (including BMI). They directly regulate inflammation and neuroplasticity pathways and also influence insulin sensitivity, bone metabolism and sympathetic outflow; all of these have been implicated in mood disorders. Here, we sought to examine the role of three key adipokines-adiponectin, resistin and leptin-as potential predictors of response to ketamine or as possible transducers of its therapeutic effects. Eighty treatment-resistant subjects who met DSM-IV criteria for either major depressive disorder (MDD) or bipolar disorder I/II and who were currently experiencing a major depressive episode received a single ketamine infusion (0.5 mg kg -1 for 40 min). Plasma adipokine levels were measured at three time points (pre-infusion baseline, 230 min post infusion and day 1 post infusion). Overall improvement and response were assessed using percent change from baseline on the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale. Lower baseline levels of adiponectin significantly predicted ketamine's antidepressant efficacy, suggesting an adverse metabolic state. Because adiponectin significantly improves insulin sensitivity and has potent anti-inflammatory effects, this finding suggests that specific systemic abnormalities might predict positive response to ketamine. A ketamine-induced decrease in resistin was also observed; because resistin is a potent pro-inflammatory compound, this decrease suggests that ketamine's anti-inflammatory effects may be transduced, in part, by its impact on resistin. Overall, the findings suggest that adipokines may either predict response to ketamine or have a role in its possible therapeutic effects.

Developmental trends in alcohol use initiation and escalation from early- to middle-adolescence: Prediction by urgency and trait affect

PubMed Central

Spillane, Nichea S.; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

2016-01-01

Studies on adolescent drinking have not always been able to distinguish between initiation and escalation of drinking, because many studies include samples in which initiation has already occurred; hence initiation and escalation are often confounded. The present study draws from a dual-process theoretical framework to investigate: if changes in the likelihood of drinking initiation and escalation are predicted by a tendency towards rash action when experiencing positive and negative emotions (positive and negative urgency); and whether trait positive and negative affect moderate such effects. Alcohol naïve adolescents (n=944; age: M=12.16, SD=.96; 52% female) completed 6 semi-annual assessments of trait urgency and affect (wave-1) and alcohol use (waves 2–6). A two-part random-effects model was used to estimate changes in the likelihood of any alcohol use vs. escalation in the volume of use amongst initiators. Main effects suggest a significant association between positive affect and change in level of alcohol use amongst initiators, such that lower positive affect predicted increased alcohol involvement. This main effect was qualified by a significant interaction between positive urgency and positive affect predicting changes in the escalation of drinking, such that the effect of positive urgency was augmented for those high on trait positive affect, though only at extremely high levels of positive affect. Results suggest risk factors in the development of drinking depend on whether initiation or escalation is investigated. A more nuanced understanding of the early developmental phases of alcohol involvement can inform prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:27031086

SNP-based heritability estimates of the personality dimensions and polygenic prediction of both neuroticism and major depression: findings from CONVERGE.

PubMed

Docherty, A R; Moscati, A; Peterson, R; Edwards, A C; Adkins, D E; Bacanu, S A; Bigdeli, T B; Webb, B T; Flint, J; Kendler, K S

2016-10-25

Biometrical genetic studies suggest that the personality dimensions, including neuroticism, are moderately heritable (~0.4 to 0.6). Quantitative analyses that aggregate the effects of many common variants have recently further informed genetic research on European samples. However, there has been limited research to date on non-European populations. This study examined the personality dimensions in a large sample of Han Chinese descent (N=10 064) from the China, Oxford, and VCU Experimental Research on Genetic Epidemiology study, aimed at identifying genetic risk factors for recurrent major depression among a rigorously ascertained cohort. Heritability of neuroticism as measured by the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ) was estimated to be low but statistically significant at 10% (s.e.=0.03, P=0.0001). In addition to EPQ, neuroticism based on a three-factor model, data for the Big Five (BF) personality dimensions (neuroticism, openness, conscientiousness, extraversion and agreeableness) measured by the Big Five Inventory were available for controls (n=5596). Heritability estimates of the BF were not statistically significant despite high power (>0.85) to detect heritabilities of 0.10. Polygenic risk scores constructed by best linear unbiased prediction weights applied to split-half samples failed to significantly predict any of the personality traits, but polygenic risk for neuroticism, calculated with LDpred and based on predictive variants previously identified from European populations (N=171 911), significantly predicted major depressive disorder case-control status (P=0.0004) after false discovery rate correction. The scores also significantly predicted EPQ neuroticism (P=6.3 × 10 -6 ). Factor analytic results of the measures indicated that any differences in heritabilities across samples may be due to genetic variation or variation in haplotype structure between samples, rather than measurement non-invariance. Findings demonstrate that neuroticism can be significantly predicted across ancestry, and highlight the importance of studying polygenic contributions to personality in non-European populations.

Weight Suppression Predicts Maintenance and Onset of Bulimic Syndromes at 10-Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Keel, Pamela K.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2010-01-01

Conflicting results have emerged regarding the prognostic significance of weight suppression for maintenance of bulimic symptoms. This study examined whether the magnitude of weight suppression would predict bulimic syndrome maintenance and onset in college-based samples of men (n=369) and women (n=968) at 10-year follow-up. Data come from a longitudinal study of body weight and disordered eating with high retention (80%). Among those with a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression significantly predicted maintenance of the syndrome, and, among those without a bulimic syndrome at baseline, greater weight suppression predicted onset of a bulimic syndrome at 10-year follow-up in multivariate models that included baseline body mass index, diet frequency, and weight perception. Future research should address mechanisms that could account for the effects of weight suppression over a long duration of follow-up. PMID:20455599

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

1997-01-01

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering. U.S. copyright. Published in 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Refining Sunrise/set Prediction Models by Accounting for the Effects of Refraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Teresa; Bartlett, Jennifer L.

2016-01-01

Current atmospheric models used to predict the times of sunrise and sunset have an error of one to four minutes at mid-latitudes (0° - 55° N/S). At higher latitudes, slight changes in refraction may cause significant discrepancies, including determining even whether the Sun appears to rise or set. While different components of refraction are known, how they affect predictions of sunrise/set has not yet been quantified. A better understanding of the contributions from temperature profile, pressure, humidity, and aerosols, could significantly improve the standard prediction. Because sunrise/set times and meteorological data from multiple locations will be necessary for a thorough investigation of the problem, we will collect this data using smartphones as part of a citizen science project. This analysis will lead to more complete models that will provide more accurate times for navigators and outdoorsman alike.

Gender bias in leader evaluations: merging implicit theories and role congruity perspectives.

PubMed

Hoyt, Crystal L; Burnette, Jeni L

2013-10-01

This research extends our understanding of gender bias in leader evaluations by merging role congruity and implicit theory perspectives. We tested and found support for the prediction that the link between people's attitudes regarding women in authority and their subsequent gender-biased leader evaluations is significantly stronger for entity theorists (those who believe attributes are fixed) relative to incremental theorists (those who believe attributes are malleable). In Study 1, 147 participants evaluated male and female gubernatorial candidates. Results supported predictions, demonstrating that traditional attitudes toward women in authority significantly predicted a pro-male gender bias in leader evaluations (and progressive attitudes predicted a pro-female gender bias) with an especially strong effect for those with more entity-oriented, relative to incrementally oriented person theories. Study 2 (119 participants) replicated these findings and demonstrated the mediating role of these attitudes in linking gender stereotypes and leader role expectations to biased evaluations.

Supersonic jet noise - Its generation, prediction and effects on people and structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preisser, J. S.; Golub, R. A.; Seiner, J. M.; Powell, C. A.

1990-01-01

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at quantifying the effects of jet source noise reduction, increases in aircraft lift, and reduced aircraft thrust on the take-off noise associated with supersonic civil transports. Supersonic jet noise sources are first described, and their frequency and directivity dependence are defined. The study utilizes NASA's Aircraft Noise Prediction Program in a parametric study to weigh the relative benefits of several approaches to low noise. The baseline aircraft concept used in these predictions is the AST-205-1 powered by GE21/J11-B14A scaled engines. Noise assessment is presented in terms of effective perceived noise levels at the FAA's centerline and sideline measuring locations for current subsonic aircraft, and in terms of audiologically perceived sound of people and other indirect effects. The results show that significant noise benefit can be achieved through proper understanding and utilization of all available approaches.

Motor Practice Effects and Sensorimotor Integration in Adults who Stutter: Evidence from Visuomotor Tracking Performance

PubMed Central

Tumanova, Victoria; Zebrowski, Patricia M.; Goodman, Shawn S.; Arenas, Richard M.

2015-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to utilize a visuomotor tracking task, with both the jaw and hand, to add to the literature regarding non-speech motor practice and sensorimotor integration (outside of auditory-motor integration domain) in adults who do (PWS) and do not (PWNS) stutter. Method Participants were 15 PWS (14 males, mean age = 27.0) and 15 PWNS (14 males, mean age = 27.2). Participants tracked both predictable and unpredictable moving targets separately with their jaw and their dominant hand, and accuracy was assessed by calculating phase and amplitude difference between the participant and the target. Motor practice effect was examined by comparing group performance over consecutive tracking trials of predictable conditions as well as within the first trial of same conditions. Results Results showed that compared to PWNS, PWS were not significantly different in matching either the phase (timing) or the amplitude of the target in both jaw and hand tracking of predictable and unpredictable targets. Further, there were no significant between-group differences in motor practice effects for either jaw or hand tracking. Both groups showed improved tracking accuracy within and between the trials. Conclusion Our findings revealed no statistically significant differences in non-speech motor practice effects and integration of sensorimotor feedback between PWS and PWNS, at least in the context of the visuomotor tracking tasks employed in the study. In general, both talker groups exhibited practice effects (i.e., increased accuracy over time) within and between tracking trials during both jaw and hand tracking. Implications for these results are discussed. PMID:25990027

Bootstrap study of genome-enabled prediction reliabilities using haplotype blocks across Nordic Red cattle breeds.

PubMed

Cuyabano, B C D; Su, G; Rosa, G J M; Lund, M S; Gianola, D

2015-10-01

This study compared the accuracy of genome-enabled prediction models using individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) or haplotype blocks as covariates when using either a single breed or a combined population of Nordic Red cattle. The main objective was to compare predictions of breeding values of complex traits using a combined training population with haplotype blocks, with predictions using a single breed as training population and individual SNP as predictors. To compare the prediction reliabilities, bootstrap samples were taken from the test data set. With the bootstrapped samples of prediction reliabilities, we built and graphed confidence ellipses to allow comparisons. Finally, measures of statistical distances were used to calculate the gain in predictive ability. Our analyses are innovative in the context of assessment of predictive models, allowing a better understanding of prediction reliabilities and providing a statistical basis to effectively calibrate whether one prediction scenario is indeed more accurate than another. An ANOVA indicated that use of haplotype blocks produced significant gains mainly when Bayesian mixture models were used but not when Bayesian BLUP was fitted to the data. Furthermore, when haplotype blocks were used to train prediction models in a combined Nordic Red cattle population, we obtained up to a statistically significant 5.5% average gain in prediction accuracy, over predictions using individual SNP and training the model with a single breed. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Motivation, Academic Stress and Age in Predicting Self-Directed Learning Readiness (SDLR): Focused on Online College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heo, JeongChul; Han, Sumi

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the self-directed learning readiness (SDLR) among online students might be significantly predicted by motivation, academic stress, and age. To complete the purpose of this study, the Pearson correlation and multiple-regression are analyzed. The participants for this study are college students who…

Joint L2,1 Norm and Fisher Discrimination Constrained Feature Selection for Rational Synthesis of Microporous Aluminophosphates.

PubMed

Qi, Miao; Wang, Ting; Yi, Yugen; Gao, Na; Kong, Jun; Wang, Jianzhong

2017-04-01

Feature selection has been regarded as an effective tool to help researchers understand the generating process of data. For mining the synthesis mechanism of microporous AlPOs, this paper proposes a novel feature selection method by joint l 2,1 norm and Fisher discrimination constraints (JNFDC). In order to obtain more effective feature subset, the proposed method can be achieved in two steps. The first step is to rank the features according to sparse and discriminative constraints. The second step is to establish predictive model with the ranked features, and select the most significant features in the light of the contribution of improving the predictive accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, JNFDC is the first work which employs the sparse representation theory to explore the synthesis mechanism of six kinds of pore rings. Numerical simulations demonstrate that our proposed method can select significant features affecting the specified structural property and improve the predictive accuracy. Moreover, comparison results show that JNFDC can obtain better predictive performances than some other state-of-the-art feature selection methods. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Overweight, body image, and depression in Asian and Hispanic adolescents.

PubMed

Xie, Bin; Unger, Jennifer B; Gallaher, Peggy; Johnson, C Anderson; Wu, Qiaobing; Chou, Chih-Ping

2010-01-01

To prospectively investigate associations between overweight and depressive symptoms in Asian and Hispanic adolescents. Data included 780 Hispanic and 375 Asian students. Structural equation model was used to prospectively explore moderation effects of gender, ethnicity, and acculturation on associations of overweight, body image dissatisfaction, and depressive symptoms. Significant mediation effect was found only in Asian girls (mediation effect = 0.16, P < 0.05) and girls with high acculturation (mediation effect = 0.17, P < 0.05). Overweight significantly predicted higher body image dissatisfaction, which in turn was significantly related to depressive symptoms. Our findings help understanding the association of overweight and experience of depressive symptoms.

Relative Weighting of Semantic and Syntactic Cues in Native and Non-Native Listeners' Recognition of English Sentences.

PubMed

Shi, Lu-Feng; Koenig, Laura L

2016-01-01

Non-native listeners do not recognize English sentences as effectively as native listeners, especially in noise. It is not entirely clear to what extent such group differences arise from differences in relative weight of semantic versus syntactic cues. This study quantified the use and weighting of these contextual cues via Boothroyd and Nittrouer's j and k factors. The j represents the probability of recognizing sentences with or without context, whereas the k represents the degree to which context improves recognition performance. Four groups of 13 normal-hearing young adult listeners participated. One group consisted of native English monolingual (EMN) listeners, whereas the other three consisted of non-native listeners contrasting in their language dominance and first language: English-dominant Russian-English, Russian-dominant Russian-English, and Spanish-dominant Spanish-English bilinguals. All listeners were presented three sets of four-word sentences: high-predictability sentences included both semantic and syntactic cues, low-predictability sentences included syntactic cues only, and zero-predictability sentences included neither semantic nor syntactic cues. Sentences were presented at 65 dB SPL binaurally in the presence of speech-spectrum noise at +3 dB SNR. Listeners orally repeated each sentence and recognition was calculated for individual words as well as the sentence as a whole. Comparable j values across groups for high-predictability, low-predictability, and zero-predictability sentences suggested that all listeners, native and non-native, utilized contextual cues to recognize English sentences. Analysis of the k factor indicated that non-native listeners took advantage of syntax as effectively as EMN listeners. However, only English-dominant bilinguals utilized semantics to the same extent as EMN listeners; semantics did not provide a significant benefit for the two non-English-dominant groups. When combined, semantics and syntax benefitted EMN listeners significantly more than all three non-native groups of listeners. Language background influenced the use and weighting of semantic and syntactic cues in a complex manner. A native language advantage existed in the effective use of both cues combined. A language-dominance effect was seen in the use of semantics. No first-language effect was present for the use of either or both cues. For all non-native listeners, syntax contributed significantly more to sentence recognition than semantics, possibly due to the fact that semantics develops more gradually than syntax in second-language acquisition. The present study provides evidence that Boothroyd and Nittrouer's j and k factors can be successfully used to quantify the effectiveness of contextual cue use in clinically relevant, linguistically diverse populations.

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2010-01-01

We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants’ predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants’ forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares, and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Participants’ forecasts seem to rest on judgments of candidates’ personal attributes (such as likeability), rather than inferences about candidates’ policy positions. Though conclusive causal inference is not possible in our context, our findings may be seen as suggestive evidence of a causal effect of candidate appeal on election outcomes. PMID:20431718

The impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, M. F.

1979-01-01

The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storz, M.; Bowman, B.; Branson, J.

The dominant error source in the force models used to predict low perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying high-resolution density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a p to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low perigee satellites.

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storz, Mark F.; Bowman, Bruce R.; Branson, Major James I.; Casali, Stephen J.; Tobiska, W. Kent

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index ap, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.

The mouse beam walking assay offers improved sensitivity over the mouse rotarod in determining motor coordination deficits induced by benzodiazepines.

PubMed

Stanley, Joanna L; Lincoln, Rachael J; Brown, Terry A; McDonald, Louise M; Dawson, Gerard R; Reynolds, David S

2005-05-01

The mouse rotarod test of motor coordination/sedation is commonly used to predict clinical sedation caused by novel drugs. However, past experience suggests that it lacks the desired degree of sensitivity to be predictive of effects in humans. For example, the benzodiazepine, bretazenil, showed little impairment of mouse rotarod performance, but marked sedation in humans. The aim of the present study was to assess whether the mouse beam walking assay demonstrates: (i) an increased sensitivity over the rotarod and (ii) an increased ability to predict clinically sedative doses of benzodiazepines. The study compared the effects of the full benzodiazepine agonists, diazepam and lorazepam, and the partial agonist, bretazenil, on the mouse rotarod and beam walking assays. Diazepam and lorazepam significantly impaired rotarod performance, although relatively high GABA-A receptor occupancy was required (72% and 93%, respectively), whereas beam walking performance was significantly affected at approximately 30% receptor occupancy. Bretazenil produced significant deficits at 90% and 53% receptor occupancy on the rotarod and beam walking assays, respectively. The results suggest that the mouse beam walking assay is a more sensitive tool for determining benzodiazepine-induced motor coordination deficits than the rotarod. Furthermore, the GABA-A receptor occupancy values at which significant deficits were determined in the beam walking assay are comparable with those observed in clinical positron emission tomography studies using sedative doses of benzodiazepines. These data suggest that the beam walking assay may be able to more accurately predict the clinically sedative doses of novel benzodiazepine-like drugs.

Comprehensive Analysis of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Preoperative Prognostic Prediction Nomogram in Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Choi, Jong-Ho; Suh, Yun-Suhk; Choi, Yunhee; Han, Jiyeon; Kim, Tae Han; Park, Shin-Hoo; Kong, Seong-Ho; Lee, Hyuk-Joon; Yang, Han-Kwang

2018-02-01

The role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and preoperative prediction model in gastric cancer is controversial, while postoperative prognostic models are available. This study investigated NLR as a preoperative prognostic indicator in gastric cancer. We reviewed patients with primary gastric cancer who underwent surgery during 2007-2010. Preoperative clinicopathologic factors were analyzed with their interaction and used to develop a prognosis prediction nomogram. That preoperative prediction nomogram was compared to a nomogram using pTNM or a historical postoperative prediction nomogram. The contribution of NLR to a preoperative nomogram was evaluated with integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Using 2539 records, multivariable analysis revealed that NLR was one of the independent prognostic factors and had a significant interaction with only age among other preoperative factors (especially significant in patients < 50 years old). NLR was constantly significant between 1.1 and 3.1 without any distinctive cutoff value. Preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.79 and an R 2 of 25.2%, which was comparable to the C-index of 0.78 and 0.82 and R 2 of 26.6 and 25.8% from nomogram using pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram, respectively. IDI of NLR to nomogram in the overall population was 0.65%, and that of patients < 50 years old was 2.72%. NLR is an independent prognostic factor for gastric cancer, especially in patients < 50 years old. A preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR can predict prognosis of gastric cancer as effectively as pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram.

On the comparison of stochastic model predictive control strategies applied to a hydrogen-based microgrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velarde, P.; Valverde, L.; Maestre, J. M.; Ocampo-Martinez, C.; Bordons, C.

2017-03-01

In this paper, a performance comparison among three well-known stochastic model predictive control approaches, namely, multi-scenario, tree-based, and chance-constrained model predictive control is presented. To this end, three predictive controllers have been designed and implemented in a real renewable-hydrogen-based microgrid. The experimental set-up includes a PEM electrolyzer, lead-acid batteries, and a PEM fuel cell as main equipment. The real experimental results show significant differences from the plant components, mainly in terms of use of energy, for each implemented technique. Effectiveness, performance, advantages, and disadvantages of these techniques are extensively discussed and analyzed to give some valid criteria when selecting an appropriate stochastic predictive controller.

Paternal Hostility and Maternal Hostility in European American and African American Families.

PubMed

Wu, Ed Y; Reeb, Ben T; Martin, Monica J; Gibbons, Frederick X; Simons, Ronald L; Conger, Rand D

2014-06-01

The authors examined the hypothesized influence of maternal and paternal hostility on youth delinquency over time. The investigation addressed significant gaps in earlier research on parental hostility, including the neglect of father effects, especially in African American families. Using prospective, longitudinal data from community samples of European American (n = 422) and African American (n = 272) 2-parent families, the authors examined the independent effects of paternal and maternal hostility on youth delinquency. The results indicated that paternal hostility significantly predicted relative increases in youth delinquent behaviors above and beyond the effects of maternal hostility; conversely, maternal hostility did not predict youth delinquency after controlling for paternal hostility. Multiple-group analyses yielded similar results for both ethnic groups and for boys and girls. These results underscore the importance of including both parents in research on diverse families. Neglecting fathers provides an incomplete account of parenting in relation to youth development.

Childhood sexual abuse history and role reversal in parenting.

PubMed

Alexander, P C; Teti, L; Anderson, C L

2000-06-01

This study explored the main and interactive effects of sexual abuse history and relationship satisfaction on self-reported parenting, controlling for histories of physical abuse and parental alcoholism. The community sample consisted of 90 mothers of 5- to 8-year-old children. The sample was limited to those mothers currently in an intimate relationship, 19 of whom reported a history of childhood sexual abuse. Participants completed the Child Behavior Checklist, the Parenting Stress Inventory, the Family Cohesion Index, and questions assessing parent-child role reversal, history of abuse and parental alcoholism, and current relationship satisfaction. Results of analyses and multivariate analyses of covariance suggested that sexual abuse survivors with an unsatisfactory intimate relationship were more likely than either sexual abuse survivors with a satisfactory relationship or nonabused women to endorse items on a questionnaire of role reversal (defined as emotional overdependence upon one's child). Role reversal was not significantly predicted by histories of physical abuse or parental alcoholism or child's gender. While parenting stress was inversely predicted by the significant main effect of relationship satisfaction, neither parenting stress nor child behavior problems were predicted by the main effect of sexual abuse history or by the interaction between sexual abuse history and relationship satisfaction. These results suggest the unique relevance of sexual abuse history and relationship satisfaction in the prediction of a specific type of parent-child role reversal--namely, a mother's emotional overdependence upon her child.

The effect of binary mixtures of zinc, copper, cadmium, and nickel on the growth of the freshwater diatom Navicula pelliculosa and comparison with mixture toxicity model predictions.

PubMed

Nagai, Takashi; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

2016-11-01

The authors investigated the effect of binary mixtures of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), and nickel (Ni) on the growth of a freshwater diatom, Navicula pelliculosa. A 7 × 7 full factorial experimental design (49 combinations in total) was used to test each binary metal mixture. A 3-d fluorescence microplate toxicity assay was used to test each combination. Mixture effects were predicted by concentration addition and independent action models based on a single-metal concentration-response relationship between the relative growth rate and the calculated free metal ion activity. Although the concentration addition model predicted the observed mixture toxicity significantly better than the independent action model for the Zn-Cu mixture, the independent action model predicted the observed mixture toxicity significantly better than the concentration addition model for the Cd-Zn, Cd-Ni, and Cd-Cu mixtures. For the Zn-Ni and Cu-Ni mixtures, it was unclear which of the 2 models was better. Statistical analysis concerning antagonistic/synergistic interactions showed that the concentration addition model is generally conservative (with the Zn-Ni mixture being the sole exception), indicating that the concentration addition model would be useful as a method for a conservative first-tier screening-level risk analysis of metal mixtures. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2765-2773. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Multilevel biological characterization of exomic variants at the protein level significantly improves the identification of their deleterious effects.

PubMed

Raimondi, Daniele; Gazzo, Andrea M; Rooman, Marianne; Lenaerts, Tom; Vranken, Wim F

2016-06-15

There are now many predictors capable of identifying the likely phenotypic effects of single nucleotide variants (SNVs) or short in-frame Insertions or Deletions (INDELs) on the increasing amount of genome sequence data. Most of these predictors focus on SNVs and use a combination of features related to sequence conservation, biophysical, and/or structural properties to link the observed variant to either neutral or disease phenotype. Despite notable successes, the mapping between genetic variants and their phenotypic effects is riddled with levels of complexity that are not yet fully understood and that are often not taken into account in the predictions, despite their promise of significantly improving the prediction of deleterious mutants. We present DEOGEN, a novel variant effect predictor that can handle both missense SNVs and in-frame INDELs. By integrating information from different biological scales and mimicking the complex mixture of effects that lead from the variant to the phenotype, we obtain significant improvements in the variant-effect prediction results. Next to the typical variant-oriented features based on the evolutionary conservation of the mutated positions, we added a collection of protein-oriented features that are based on functional aspects of the gene affected. We cross-validated DEOGEN on 36 825 polymorphisms, 20 821 deleterious SNVs, and 1038 INDELs from SwissProt. The multilevel contextualization of each (variant, protein) pair in DEOGEN provides a 10% improvement of MCC with respect to current state-of-the-art tools. The software and the data presented here is publicly available at http://ibsquare.be/deogen : wvranken@vub.ac.be Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Introduction to statistical modelling 2: categorical variables and interactions in linear regression.

PubMed

Lunt, Mark

2015-07-01

In the first article in this series we explored the use of linear regression to predict an outcome variable from a number of predictive factors. It assumed that the predictive factors were measured on an interval scale. However, this article shows how categorical variables can also be included in a linear regression model, enabling predictions to be made separately for different groups and allowing for testing the hypothesis that the outcome differs between groups. The use of interaction terms to measure whether the effect of a particular predictor variable differs between groups is also explained. An alternative approach to testing the difference between groups of the effect of a given predictor, which consists of measuring the effect in each group separately and seeing whether the statistical significance differs between the groups, is shown to be misleading. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recrystallization and Grain Growth Kinetics in Binary Alpha Titanium-Aluminum Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trump, Anna Marie

Titanium alloys are used in a variety of important naval and aerospace applications and often undergo thermomechanical processing which leads to recrystallization and grain growth. Both of these processes have a significant impact on the mechanical properties of the material. Therefore, understanding the kinetics of these processes is crucial to being able to predict the final properties. Three alloys are studied with varying concentrations of aluminum which allows for the direct quantification of the effect of aluminum content on the kinetics of recrystallization and grain growth. Aluminum is the most common alpha stabilizing alloying element used in titanium alloys, however the effect of aluminum on these processes has not been previously studied. This work is also part of a larger Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) effort whose goal is to combine both computational and experimental efforts to develop computationally efficient models that predict materials microstructure and properties based on processing history. The static recrystallization kinetics are measured using an electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) technique and a significant retardation in the kinetics is observed with increasing aluminum concentration. An analytical model is then used to capture these results and is able to successfully predict the effect of solute concentration on the time to 50% recrystallization. The model reveals that this solute effect is due to a combination of a decrease in grain boundary mobility and a decrease in driving force with increasing aluminum concentration. The effect of microstructural inhomogeneities is also experimentally quantified and the results are validated with a phase field model for recrystallization. These microstructural inhomogeneities explain the experimentally measured Avrami exponent, which is lower than the theoretical value calculated by the JMAK model. Similar to the effect seen in recrystallization, the addition of aluminum also significantly slows downs the grain growth kinetics. This is generally attributed to the solute drag effect due to segregation of solute atoms at the grain boundaries, however aluminum segregation is not observed in these alloys. The mechanism for this result is explained and is used to validate the prediction of an existing model for solute drag.

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Paternal Age on Offspring Intelligence and Personality when Controlling for Parental Trait Levels

PubMed Central

Arslan, Ruben C.; Penke, Lars; Johnson, Wendy; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt

2014-01-01

Paternal age at conception has been found to predict the number of new genetic mutations. We examined the effect of father’s age at birth on offspring intelligence, head circumference and personality traits. Using the Minnesota Twin Family Study sample we tested paternal age effects while controlling for parents’ trait levels measured with the same precision as offspring’s. From evolutionary genetic considerations we predicted a negative effect of paternal age on offspring intelligence, but not on other traits. Controlling for parental intelligence (IQ) had the effect of turning an initially positive association non-significantly negative. We found paternal age effects on offspring IQ and Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire Absorption, but they were not robustly significant, nor replicable with additional covariates. No other noteworthy effects were found. Parents’ intelligence and personality correlated with their ages at twin birth, which may have obscured a small negative effect of advanced paternal age (<1% of variance explained) on intelligence. We discuss future avenues for studies of paternal age effects and suggest that stronger research designs are needed to rule out confounding factors involving birth order and the Flynn effect. PMID:24587224

Conflict effects without conflict in anterior cingulate cortex: multiple response effects and context specific representations

PubMed Central

Brown, Joshua W.

2009-01-01

The error likelihood computational model of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) (Brown & Braver, 2005) has successfully predicted error likelihood effects, risk prediction effects, and how individual differences in conflict and error likelihood effects vary with trait differences in risk aversion. The same computational model now makes a further prediction that apparent conflict effects in ACC may result in part from an increasing number of simultaneously active responses, regardless of whether or not the cued responses are mutually incompatible. In Experiment 1, the model prediction was tested with a modification of the Eriksen flanker task, in which some task conditions require two otherwise mutually incompatible responses to be generated simultaneously. In that case, the two response processes are no longer in conflict with each other. The results showed small but significant medial PFC effects in the incongruent vs. congruent contrast, despite the absence of response conflict, consistent with model predictions. This is the multiple response effect. Nonetheless, actual response conflict led to greater ACC activation, suggesting that conflict effects are specific to particular task contexts. In Experiment 2, results from a change signal task suggested that the context dependence of conflict signals does not depend on error likelihood effects. Instead, inputs to ACC may reflect complex and task specific representations of motor acts, such as bimanual responses. Overall, the results suggest the existence of a richer set of motor signals monitored by medial PFC and are consistent with distinct effects of multiple responses, conflict, and error likelihood in medial PFC. PMID:19375509

“Everyone Needs a Friend Sometimes” – Social Predictors of Long-Term Remission In First Episode Psychosis

PubMed Central

Bjornestad, Jone; Joa, Inge; Larsen, Tor K.; Langeveld, Johannes; Davidson, Larry; ten Velden Hegelstad, Wenche; Anda, Liss G.; Veseth, Marius; Melle, Ingrid; Johannessen, Jan O.; Bronnick, Kolbjorn

2016-01-01

Background: Predictors of long-term symptomatic remission are crucial to the successful tailoring of treatment in first episode psychosis. There is lack of studies distinguishing the predictive effects of different social factors. This prevents a valid evaluating of their independent effects. Objectives: To test specific social baseline predictors of long-term remission. We hypothesized that first, satisfaction with social relations predicts remission; second, that frequency of social interaction predicts remission; and third, that the effect of friend relationship satisfaction and frequency will be greater than that of family relations satisfaction and frequency. Material and Methods: A sample of first episode psychosis (n = 186) completed baseline measures of social functioning, as well as clinical assessments. We compared groups of remitted and non-remitted individuals using generalized estimating equations analyses. Results: Frequency of social interaction with friends was a significant positive predictor of remission over a two-year period. Neither global perceived social satisfaction nor frequency of family interaction showed significant effects. Conclusions: The study findings are of particular clinical importance since frequency of friendship interaction is a possibly malleable factor. Frequency of interaction could be affected through behavioral modification and therapy already from an early stage in the course, and thus increase remission rates. PMID:27757090

Parsonian Influence and the Effect of School Climate and Bureaucracy on the Perceived Effectiveness in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McVey, Deidre

2009-01-01

School climate is a significant way to predict school achievement as a positive correlation to students' standardized test scores and also teachers' perceptions of bureaucratic effectiveness and empowerment (Hoy, Tarter & Kottkamp, 1991; Sweetland & Hoy, 2000). Enabling bureaucracies are positively related to teacher empowering; however,…

Boundary layer integral matrix procedure: Verification of models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonnett, W. S.; Evans, R. M.

1977-01-01

The three turbulent models currently available in the JANNAF version of the Aerotherm Boundary Layer Integral Matrix Procedure (BLIMP-J) code were studied. The BLIMP-J program is the standard prediction method for boundary layer effects in liquid rocket engine thrust chambers. Experimental data from flow fields with large edge-to-wall temperature ratios are compared to the predictions of the three turbulence models contained in BLIMP-J. In addition, test conditions necessary to generate additional data on a flat plate or in a nozzle are given. It is concluded that the Cebeci-Smith turbulence model be the recommended model for the prediction of boundary layer effects in liquid rocket engines. In addition, the effects of homogeneous chemical reaction kinetics were examined for a hydrogen/oxygen system. Results show that for most flows, kinetics are probably only significant for stoichiometric mixture ratios.

Cascade aeroacoustics including steady loading effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Hsiao-Wei D.; Fleeter, Sanford

A mathematical model is developed to analyze the effects of airfoil and cascade geometry, steady aerodynamic loading, and the characteristics of the unsteady flow field on the discrete frequency noise generation of a blade row in an incompressible flow. The unsteady lift which generates the noise is predicted with a complex first-order cascade convected gust analysis. This model was then applied to the Gostelow airfoil cascade and variations, demonstrating that steady loading, cascade solidity, and the gust direction are significant. Also, even at zero incidence, the classical flat plate cascade predictions are unacceptable.

Theoretical prediction of nonlinear propagation effects on noise signatures generated by subsonic or supersonic propeller or rotor-blade tips

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barger, R. L.

1980-01-01

The nonlinear propagation equations for sound generated by a constant speed blade tip are presented. Propagation from a subsonic tip is treated as well as the various cases that can occur at supersonic speeds. Some computed examples indicate that the nonlinear theory correlates with experimental results better than linear theory for large amplitude waves. For swept tips that generate a wave with large amplitude leading expansion, the nonlinear theory predicts a cancellation effect that results in a significant reduction of both amplitude and impulse.

The Effect of Men's Body Attitudes and Motivation for Gym Attendance.

PubMed

Caudwell, Kim M; Keatley, David A

2016-09-01

Caudwell, KM and Keatley, DA. The effect of men's body attitudes and motivation for gym attendance. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2550-2556, 2016-The current study integrates men's body attitudes with implicitly and explicitly measured motivation to investigate the role of these factors in predicting gym attendance. Male participants (N = 99) who regularly attended a gym were recruited to participate in an online questionnaire. Participants completed implicit and explicit measures of motivation, explicitly measured men's body attitudes, and reported the average number of gym visits per week. Attitudes related to body fat and explicitly measured autonomous motivation significantly predicted typical gym attendance. Implicitly measured motivation significantly and negatively predicted gym attendance. Results indicate some support for a dual-systems account of gym attendance. Men's body attitudes and autonomous motivation influences gym attendance; however, implicitly measured motivation showed antagonistic effects. Although individuals may explicitly state their autonomous motivation for gym attendance, attendance may also be influenced at the explicit level. Health and fitness professionals may improve gym attendance by focusing on people's reasons for attending a gym, facilitating autonomous motivation in clients, and minimizing the influence of controlled reasons for exercise.

Effects of warm water inflows on the dispersion of pollutants in small reservoirs.

PubMed

Palancar, María C; Aragón, José M; Sánchez, Fernando; Gil, Roberto

2006-11-01

The effects of the warm water discharged by a nuclear power plant (NPP) into a small reservoir are studied. A case study is presented (José Cabrera NPP-Zorita Hidráulica Reservoir) with experimental data of the reservoir stratification and predicted data of the dispersion of radioactive pollutants from operative or accidental releases. The vertical and longitudinal temperature profiles, electrical conductivity and transparency of the reservoir water were measured for an annual cycle. The results indicate that the continuous warm water discharge from the NPP causes permanent and artificial reservoir stratification. The stratification is significant within 1500 m upstream and 1000 m downstream from the warm water outfall. The pollutant dispersion has been predicted by using a flow model based on N(T) perfect-mixing compartments in series with feedback. The model parameter, N(T), is calculated from the longitudinal diffusion coefficient. The prediction of pollutant dispersion by means of this model shows that the stratification slows down the vertical mixing in the whole water body, and reduces the reservoir volume that is effective for the dilution and dispersion of pollutants. This means that, in the case of a radioactive pollutant release, the reservoir radioactivity level could increase significantly.

A Prospective Examination of the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior Among Psychiatric Adolescent Inpatients

PubMed Central

Czyz, Ewa K.; Berona, Johnny; King, Cheryl A.

2016-01-01

The challenge of identifying suicide risk in adolescents, and particularly among high-risk subgroups such as adolescent inpatients, calls for further study of models of suicidal behavior that could meaningfully aid in the prediction of risk. This study examined how well the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior (IPTS)—with its constructs of thwarted belongingness (TB), perceived burdensomeness (PB), and an acquired capability (AC) for lethal self-injury—predicts suicide attempts among adolescents (N = 376) 3 and 12 months after hospitalization. The three-way interaction between PB, TB, and AC, defined as a history of multiple suicide attempts, was not significant. However, there were significant 2-way interaction effects, which varied by sex: girls with low AC and increasing TB, and boys with high AC and increasing PB, were more likely to attempt suicide at 3 months. Only high AC predicted 12-month attempts. Results suggest gender-specific associations between theory components and attempts. The time-limited effects of these associations point to TB and PB being dynamic and modifiable in high-risk populations, whereas the effects of AC are more lasting. The study also fills an important gap in existing research by examining IPTS prospectively. PMID:25263410

A Prospective Examination of the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior Among Psychiatric Adolescent Inpatients

PubMed Central

Czyz, Ewa K.; Berona, Johnny; King, Cheryl A.

2016-01-01

The challenge of identifying suicide risk in adolescents, and particularly among high-risk subgroups such as adolescent inpatients, calls for further study of models of suicidal behavior that could meaningfully aid in the prediction of risk. This study examined how well the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior (IPTS)—with its constructs of thwarted belongingness (TB), perceived burdensomeness (PB), and an acquired capability (AC) for lethal self-injury—predicts suicide attempts among adolescents (N = 376) 3 and 12 months after hospitalization. The three-way interaction between PB, TB, and AC, defined as a history of multiple suicide attempts, was not significant. However, there were significant 2-way interaction effects, which varied by sex: girls with low AC and increasing TB, and boys with high AC and increasing PB, were more likely to attempt suicide at 3 months. Only high AC predicted 12-month attempts. Results suggest gender-specific associations between theory components and attempts. The time-limited effects of these associations point to TB and PB being dynamic and modifiable in high-risk populations, whereas the effects of AC are more lasting. The study also fills an important gap in existing research by examining IPTS prospectively. PMID:26872965

Tailor-made heart simulation predicts the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy in a canine model of heart failure.

PubMed

Panthee, Nirmal; Okada, Jun-ichi; Washio, Takumi; Mochizuki, Youhei; Suzuki, Ryohei; Koyama, Hidekazu; Ono, Minoru; Hisada, Toshiaki; Sugiura, Seiryo

2016-07-01

Despite extensive studies on clinical indices for the selection of patient candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), approximately 30% of selected patients do not respond to this therapy. Herein, we examined whether CRT simulations based on individualized realistic three-dimensional heart models can predict the therapeutic effect of CRT in a canine model of heart failure with left bundle branch block. In four canine models of failing heart with dyssynchrony, individualized three-dimensional heart models reproducing the electromechanical activity of each animal were created based on the computer tomographic images. CRT simulations were performed for 25 patterns of three ventricular pacing lead positions. Lead positions producing the best and the worst therapeutic effects were selected in each model. The validity of predictions was tested in acute experiments in which hearts were paced from the sites identified by simulations. We found significant correlations between the experimentally observed improvement in ejection fraction (EF) and the predicted improvements in ejection fraction (P<0.01) or the maximum value of the derivative of left ventricular pressure (P<0.01). The optimal lead positions produced better outcomes compared with the worst positioning in all dogs studied, although there were significant variations in responses. Variations in ventricular wall thickness among the dogs may have contributed to these responses. Thus CRT simulations using the individualized three-dimensional heart models can predict acute hemodynamic improvement, and help determine the optimal positions of the pacing lead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction and moderation of improvement in cognitive-behavioral and psychodynamic psychotherapy for panic disorder.

PubMed

Chambless, Dianne L; Milrod, Barbara; Porter, Eliora; Gallop, Robert; McCarthy, Kevin S; Graf, Elizabeth; Rudden, Marie; Sharpless, Brian A; Barber, Jacques P

2017-08-01

To identify variables predicting psychotherapy outcome for panic disorder or indicating which of 2 very different forms of psychotherapy-panic-focused psychodynamic psychotherapy (PFPP) or cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT)-would be more effective for particular patients. Data were from 161 adults participating in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) including these psychotherapies. Patients included 104 women; 118 patients were White, 33 were Black, and 10 were of other races; 24 were Latino(a). Predictors/moderators measured at baseline or by Session 2 of treatment were used to predict change on the Panic Disorder Severity Scale (PDSS). Higher expectancy for treatment gains (Credibility/Expectancy Questionnaire d = -1.05, CI 95% [-1.50, -0.60]), and later age of onset (d = -0.65, CI 95% [-0.98, -0.32]) were predictive of greater change. Both variables were also significant moderators: patients with low expectancy of improvement improved significantly less in PFPP than their counterparts in CBT, whereas this was not the case for patients with average or high levels of expectancy. When patients had an onset of panic disorder later in life (≥27.5 years old), they fared as well in PFPP as CBT. In contrast, at low and mean levels of onset age, CBT was the more effective treatment. Predictive variables suggest possibly fruitful foci for improvement of treatment outcome. In terms of moderation, CBT was the more consistently effective treatment, but moderators identified some patients who would do as well in PFPP as in CBT, thereby widening empirically supported options for treatment of this disorder. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Prediction of Transonic Vortex Flows Using Linear and Nonlinear Turbulent Eddy Viscosity Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.; Gatski, Thomas B.

2000-01-01

Three-dimensional transonic flow over a delta wing is investigated with a focus on the effect of transition and influence of turbulence stress anisotropies. The performance of linear eddy viscosity models and an explicit algebraic stress model is assessed at the start of vortex flow, and the results compared with experimental data. To assess the effect of transition location, computations that either fix transition or are fully turbulent are performed. To assess the effect of the turbulent stress anisotropy, comparisons are made between predictions from the algebraic stress model and the linear eddy viscosity models. Both transition location and turbulent stress anisotropy significantly affect the 3D flow field. The most significant effect is found to be the modeling of transition location. At a Mach number of 0.90, the computed solution changes character from steady to unsteady depending on transition onset. Accounting for the anisotropies in the turbulent stresses also considerably impacts the flow, most notably in the outboard region of flow separation.

A different look at the epidemiological paradox: self-rated health, perceived social cohesion, and neighborhood immigrant context.

PubMed

Bjornstrom, Eileen E S; Kuhl, Danielle C

2014-11-01

We use data from Waves 1 and 2 of the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey to examine the effects of neighborhood immigrant concentration, race-ethnicity, nativity, and perceived cohesion on self-rated physical health. We limit our sample to adults whose addresses do not change between waves in order to explore neighborhood effects. Foreign-born Latinos were significantly less likely to report fair or poor health than African Americans and U.S.-born whites, but did not differ from U.S.-born Latinos. The main effect of immigrant concentration was not significant, but it interacted with nativity status to predict health: U.S.-born Latinos benefited more from neighborhood immigrant concentration than foreign-born Latinos. Perceived cohesion predicted health but immigrant concentration did not moderate the effect. Finally, U.S.-born Latinos differed from others in the way cohesion is associated with their health. Results are discussed within the framework of the epidemiological paradox. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work-family conflict, locus of control, and women's well-being: tests of alternative pathways.

PubMed

Noor, Noraini M

2002-10-01

The author tested for the 3 possible pathways (i.e., direct, moderator, and mediator effects) in which locus of control can influence the relationship between work-family conflict and well-being. The author predicted that work-family conflict would be negatively correlated with well-being. In a sample of 310 Malaysian employed women with families, work-family conflict was a significant predictor of both job satisfaction and distress--negatively related to job satisfaction and positively related to symptoms of distress. More important, the results provided support for the effects of all 3 pathways of control on the relationship between work-family conflict and well-being, depending on the outcome measure: For job satisfaction, locus of control had direct effects, acted as a partial mediator, and played a significant moderating role. In contrast, only the direct effect of locus of control predicted distress. The author discusses those findings with reference to the literature on work-family conflict, locus of control, and the issue of stress-distress specificity.

Evaluation of hot forming effects mapping for CAE analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knoerr, L.; Faath, T.; Dykeman, J.; Malcolm, S.

2016-08-01

Hot forming has grown significantly in the manufacturing of structural components within the vehicle Body-In-White construction. The superior strength of press hardened steels not only guarantee high resistance to deformation, it also brings a significant weight saving compared to conventional cold formed products. However, the benefit of achieving ultrahigh strength with hot stamping, comes with a reduction in ductility of the press hardened part. This will require advanced material modeling to capture the predicted performances accurately. A technique to optically measure and map the thinning distribution after hot stamping has shown to improve numerical analysis for fracture prediction. The proposed method to determine the forming effects and mapping to CAE models can be integrated into the Vehicle Development Process to shorten the time to production.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion area-detector CT assessed with various mathematical models: Its capability for therapeutic outcome prediction for non-small cell lung cancer patients with chemoradiotherapy as compared with that of FDG-PET/CT.

PubMed

Ohno, Yoshiharu; Fujisawa, Yasuko; Koyama, Hisanobu; Kishida, Yuji; Seki, Shinichiro; Sugihara, Naoki; Yoshikawa, Takeshi

2017-01-01

To directly compare the capability of dynamic first-pass contrast-enhanced (CE-) perfusion area-detector CT (ADCT) and PET/CT for early prediction of treatment response, disease progression and overall survival of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Fifty-three consecutive Stage IIIB NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT, dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT, chemoradiotherapy, and follow-up examination were enrolled in this study. They were divided into two groups: 1) complete or partial response (CR+PR) and 2) stable or progressive disease (SD+PD). Pulmonary arterial and systemic arterial perfusions and total perfusion were assessed at targeted lesions with the dual-input maximum slope method, permeability surface and distribution volume with the Patlak plot method, tumor perfusion with the single-input maximum slope method, and SUV max , and results were averaged to determine final values for each patient. Next, step-wise regression analysis was used to determine which indices were the most useful for predicting therapeutic effect. Finally, overall survival of responders and non-responders assessed by using the indices that had a significant effect on prediction of therapeutic outcome was statistically compared. The step-wise regression test showed that therapeutic effect (r 2 =0.63, p=0.01) was significantly affected by the following three factors in order of magnitude of impact: systemic arterial perfusion, total perfusion, and SUV max . Mean overall survival showed a significant difference for total perfusion (p=0.003) and systemic arterial perfusion (p=0.04). Dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT as well as PET/CT are useful for treatment response prediction in NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Obesity's effect on asthma extends to diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Lugogo, Njira; Green, Cynthia L; Agada, Noah; Zhang, Siyi; Meghdadpour, Susanne; Zhou, Run; Yang, Siyun; Anstrom, Kevin J; Israel, Elliot; Martin, Richard; Lemanske, Robert F; Boushey, Homer; Lazarus, Stephen C; Wasserman, Stephen I; Castro, Mario; Calhoun, William; Peters, Stephen P; DiMango, Emily; Chinchilli, Vernon; Kunselman, Susan; King, Tonya S; Icitovic, Nikolina; Kraft, Monica

2018-03-01

The use of inflammatory biomarkers to delineate the type of lung inflammation present in asthmatic subjects is increasingly common. However, the effect of obesity on these markers is unknown. We aimed to determine the effect of obesity on conventional markers of inflammation in asthmatic subjects. We performed secondary analysis of data from 652 subjects previously enrolled in 2 Asthma Clinical Research Network trials. We performed linear correlations between biomarkers and logistic regression analysis to determine the predictive value of IgE levels, blood eosinophil counts, and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide values in relationship to sputum eosinophil counts (>2%), as well as to determine whether cut points existed that would maximize the sensitivity and specificity for predicting sputum eosinophilia in the 3 weight groups. Overall, statistically significant but relatively weak correlations were observed among all 4 markers of inflammation. Within obese subjects, the only significant correlation found was between IgE levels and blood eosinophil counts (r = 0.33, P < .001); furthermore, all other correlations between inflammatory markers were approximately 0, including correlations with sputum eosinophil counts. In addition, the predictive value of each biomarker alone or in combination was poor in obese subjects. In fact, in obese subjects none of the biomarkers of inflammation significantly predicted the presence of high sputum eosinophil counts. Obese asthmatic subjects have lower cut points for IgE levels (268 IU), fraction of exhaled nitric oxide values (14.5 ppb), and blood eosinophil counts (96 cells/μL) than all other groups. In obese asthmatic subjects conventional biomarkers of inflammation are poorly predictive of eosinophilic airway inflammation. As such, biomarkers currently used to delineate eosinophilic inflammation in asthmatic subjects should be approached with caution in these subjects. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Landing Gear Noise Prediction and Analysis for Tube-and-Wing and Hybrid-Wing-Body Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guo, Yueping; Burley, Casey L.; Thomas, Russell H.

2016-01-01

Improvements and extensions to landing gear noise prediction methods are developed. New features include installation effects such as reflection from the aircraft, gear truck angle effect, local flow calculation at the landing gear locations, gear size effect, and directivity for various gear designs. These new features have not only significantly improved the accuracy and robustness of the prediction tools, but also have enabled applications to unconventional aircraft designs and installations. Systematic validations of the improved prediction capability are then presented, including parametric validations in functional trends as well as validations in absolute amplitudes, covering a wide variety of landing gear designs, sizes, and testing conditions. The new method is then applied to selected concept aircraft configurations in the portfolio of the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project envisioned for the timeframe of 2025. The landing gear noise levels are on the order of 2 to 4 dB higher than previously reported predictions due to increased fidelity in accounting for installation effects and gear design details. With the new method, it is now possible to reveal and assess the unique noise characteristics of landing gear systems for each type of aircraft. To address the inevitable uncertainties in predictions of landing gear noise models for future aircraft, an uncertainty analysis is given, using the method of Monte Carlo simulation. The standard deviation of the uncertainty in predicting the absolute level of landing gear noise is quantified and determined to be 1.4 EPNL dB.

The costs and benefits of temporal predictability: impaired inhibition of prepotent responses accompanies increased activation of task-relevant responses.

PubMed

Korolczuk, Inga; Burle, Boris; Coull, Jennifer T

2018-06-20

While the benefit of temporal predictability on sensorimotor processing is well established, it is still unknown whether this is due to efficient execution of an appropriate response and/or inhibition of an inappropriate one. To answer this question, we examined the effects of temporal predictability in tasks that required selective (Simon task) or global (Stop-signal task) inhibitory control of prepotent responses. We manipulated temporal expectation by presenting cues that either predicted (temporal cues) or not (neutral cues) when the target would appear. In the Simon task, performance was better when target location (left/right) was compatible with the hand of response and performance was improved further still if targets were temporally cued. However, Conditional Accuracy Functions revealed that temporal predictability selectively increased the number of fast, impulsive errors. Temporal cueing had no effect on selective response inhibition, as measured by the dynamics of the interference effect (delta plots) in the Simon task. By contrast, in the Stop-signal task, Stop-signal reaction time, a covert measure of a more global form of response inhibition, was significantly longer in temporally predictive trials. Therefore, when the time of target onset could be predicted in advance, it was harder to stop the impulse to respond to the target. Collectively, our results indicate that temporal cueing compounded the interfering effects of a prepotent response on task performance. We suggest that although temporal predictability enhances activation of task-relevant responses, it impairs inhibition of prepotent responses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined exposure to low doses of pesticides causes decreased birth weights in rats.

PubMed

Hass, Ulla; Christiansen, Sofie; Axelstad, Marta; Scholze, Martin; Boberg, Julie

2017-09-01

Decreased birth weight is a common effect of many pesticides in reproductive toxicity studies, but there are no empirical data on how pesticides act in combination on this endpoint. We hypothesized that a mixture of six pesticides (cyromazine, MCPB, pirimicarb, quinoclamine, thiram, and ziram) would decrease birth weight, and that these mixture effects could be predicted by the Dose Addition model. Data for the predictions were obtained from the Draft Assessment Reports of the individual pesticides. A mixture of equi-effective doses of these pesticides was tested in two studies in Wistar rats, showing mixture effects in good agreement with the additivity predictions. Significantly lower birth weights were observed when compounds were present at individual doses below their no-observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs). These results emphasize the need for cumulative risk assessment of pesticides to avoid potentially serious impact of mixed exposure on prenatal development and pregnancy in humans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consideration of some factors affecting low-frequency fuselage noise transmission for propeller aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mixson, J. S.; Roussos, L. A.

1986-01-01

Possible reasons for disagreement between measured and predicted trends of sidewall noise transmission at low frequency are investigated using simplified analysis methods. An analytical model combining incident plane acoustic waves with an infinite flat panel is used to study the effects of sound incidence angle, plate structural properties, frequency, absorption, and the difference between noise reduction and transmission loss. Analysis shows that these factors have significant effects on noise transmission but they do not account for the differences between measured and predicted trends at low frequencies. An analytical model combining an infinite flat plate with a normally incident acoustic wave having exponentially decaying magnitude along one coordinate is used to study the effect of a localized source distribution such as is associated with propeller noise. Results show that the localization brings the predicted low-frequency trend of noise transmission into better agreement with measured propeller results. This effect is independent of low-frequency stiffness effects that have been previously reported to be associated with boundary conditions.

Self-Reported Mental Health Predicts Acute Respiratory Infection.

PubMed

Maxwell, Lizzie; Barrett, Bruce; Chase, Joseph; Brown, Roger; Ewers, Tola

2015-06-01

Poor mental health conditions, including stress and depression, have been recognized as a risk factor for the development of acute respiratory infection. Very few studies have considered the role of general mental health in acute respiratory infection occurrence. The aim of this analysis is to determine if overall mental health, as assessed by the mental component of the Short Form 12 Health Survey, predicts incidence, duration, or severity of acute respiratory infection. Data utilized for this analysis came from the National Institute of Health-funded Meditation or Exercise for Preventing Acute Respiratory Infection (MEPARI) and MEPARI-2 randomized controlled trials examining the effects of meditation or exercise on acute respiratory infection among adults aged > 30 years in Madison, Wisconsin. A Kendall tau rank correlation compared the Short Form 12 mental component, completed by participants at baseline, with acute respiratory infection incidence, duration, and area-under-the-curve (global) severity, as assessed by the Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey. Participants were recruited from Madison, Wis, using advertisements in local media. Short Form 12 mental health scores significantly predicted incidence (P = 0.037) of acute respiratory infection, but not duration (P = 0.077) or severity (P = 0.073). The Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) negative emotion measure significantly predicted global severity (P = 0.036), but not incidence (P = 0.081) or duration (P = 0.125). Mindful Attention Awareness Scale scores significantly predicted incidence of acute respiratory infection (P = 0.040), but not duration (P = 0.053) or severity (P = 0.70). The PHQ-9, PSS-10, and PANAS positive measures did not show significant predictive associations with any of the acute respiratory infection outcomes. Self-reported overall mental health, as measured by the mental component of Short Form 12, predicts acute respiratory infection incidence.

Automated identification and predictive tools to help identify high-risk heart failure patients: pilot evaluation.

PubMed

Evans, R Scott; Benuzillo, Jose; Horne, Benjamin D; Lloyd, James F; Bradshaw, Alejandra; Budge, Deborah; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Roberts, Colleen; Buckway, Jason; Geer, Norma; Garrett, Teresa; Lappé, Donald L

2016-09-01

Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients. The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility. Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Poisoning severity score, APACHE II and GCS: effective clinical indices for estimating severity and predicting outcome of acute organophosphorus and carbamate poisoning.

PubMed

Sam, Kishore Gnana; Kondabolu, Krishnakanth; Pati, Dipanwita; Kamath, Asha; Pradeep Kumar, G; Rao, Padma G M

2009-07-01

Self-poisoning with organophosphorus (OP) compounds is a major cause of morbidity and mortality across South Asian countries. To develop uniform and effective management guidelines, the severity of acute OP poisoning should be assessed through scientific methods and a clinical database should be maintained. A prospective descriptive survey was carried out to assess the utility of severity scales in predicting the outcome of 71 organophosphate (OP) and carbamate poisoning patients admitted during a one year period at the Kasturba Hospital, Manipal, India. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, predicted mortality rate (PMR) and Poisoning severity score (PSS) were estimated within 24h of admission. Significant correlation (P<0.05) between PSS and GCS and APACHE II and PMR scores were observed with the PSS scores predicting mortality significantly (P< or =0.001). A total of 84.5% patients improved after treatment while 8.5% of the patients were discharged with severe morbidity. The mortality rate was 7.0%. Suicidal poisoning was observed to be the major cause (80.2%), while other reasons attributed were occupational (9.1%), accidental (6.6%), homicidal (1.6%) and unknown (2.5%) reasons. This study highlights the application of clinical indices like GCS, APACHE, PMR and severity scores in predicting mortality and may be considered for planning standard treatment guidelines.

Prediction of shot success for basketball free throws: visual search strategy.

PubMed

Uchida, Yusuke; Mizuguchi, Nobuaki; Honda, Masaaki; Kanosue, Kazuyuki

2014-01-01

In ball games, players have to pay close attention to visual information in order to predict the movements of both the opponents and the ball. Previous studies have indicated that players primarily utilise cues concerning the ball and opponents' body motion. The information acquired must be effective for observing players to select the subsequent action. The present study evaluated the effects of changes in the video replay speed on the spatial visual search strategy and ability to predict free throw success. We compared eye movements made while observing a basketball free throw by novices and experienced basketball players. Correct response rates were close to chance (50%) at all video speeds for the novices. The correct response rate of experienced players was significantly above chance (and significantly above that of the novices) at the normal speed, but was not different from chance at both slow and fast speeds. Experienced players gazed more on the lower part of the player's body when viewing a normal speed video than the novices. The players likely detected critical visual information to predict shot success by properly moving their gaze according to the shooter's movements. This pattern did not change when the video speed was decreased, but changed when it was increased. These findings suggest that temporal information is important for predicting action outcomes and that such outcomes are sensitive to video speed.

Predictive modeling of nanomaterial exposure effects in biological systems

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiong; Tang, Kaizhi; Harper, Stacey; Harper, Bryan; Steevens, Jeffery A; Xu, Roger

2013-01-01

Background Predictive modeling of the biological effects of nanomaterials is critical for industry and policymakers to assess the potential hazards resulting from the application of engineered nanomaterials. Methods We generated an experimental dataset on the toxic effects experienced by embryonic zebrafish due to exposure to nanomaterials. Several nanomaterials were studied, such as metal nanoparticles, dendrimer, metal oxide, and polymeric materials. The embryonic zebrafish metric (EZ Metric) was used as a screening-level measurement representative of adverse effects. Using the dataset, we developed a data mining approach to model the toxic endpoints and the overall biological impact of nanomaterials. Data mining techniques, such as numerical prediction, can assist analysts in developing risk assessment models for nanomaterials. Results We found several important attributes that contribute to the 24 hours post-fertilization (hpf) mortality, such as dosage concentration, shell composition, and surface charge. These findings concur with previous studies on nanomaterial toxicity using embryonic zebrafish. We conducted case studies on modeling the overall effect/impact of nanomaterials and the specific toxic endpoints such as mortality, delayed development, and morphological malformations. The results show that we can achieve high prediction accuracy for certain biological effects, such as 24 hpf mortality, 120 hpf mortality, and 120 hpf heart malformation. The results also show that the weighting scheme for individual biological effects has a significant influence on modeling the overall impact of nanomaterials. Sample prediction models can be found at http://neiminer.i-a-i.com/nei_models. Conclusion The EZ Metric-based data mining approach has been shown to have predictive power. The results provide valuable insights into the modeling and understanding of nanomaterial exposure effects. PMID:24098077

Acculturation Differentially Predicts Smoking Cessation Among Latino Men and Women

PubMed Central

Castro, Yessenia; Reitzel, Lorraine R.; Businelle, Michael S.; Kendzor, Darla E.; Mazas, Carlos; Li, Yisheng; Cofta-Woerpel, Ludmila; Wetter, David W.

2009-01-01

Objectives The current study examined the influence of gender, acculturation indicators, and their interaction on smoking cessation among Latinos. Methods Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the main effects of gender, acculturation indicators, and their interactions on self-reported 7-day abstinence at 12 week follow-up among 271 Latino smokers seeking cessation counseling. Results Analyses revealed significant main effects for several acculturation indicators, and significant interactions of gender with number of years lived in the United States (U.S.), proportion of life lived in the U.S., and preferred media language (all ps < .05). Follow-up analyses indicated no significant relationships between abstinence and acculturation indicators among women. Among men, abstinence rates increased with years in the U.S., proportion of life in the U.S., and preferred media language of English. Conclusions Greater acculturation predicted higher abstinence rates, but this relationship was restricted to men. This study is among the first to examine the effects of gender and acculturation on smoking abstinence among Latinos. Findings highlight the need for research focused on mechanisms underlying these relationships. PMID:19959697

Predicting duff consumption from prescribed burns on conifer clearcuts in western Oregon and western Washington.

Treesearch

Susan N. Little; Roger D. Ottmar; Janet L. Ohmann

1986-01-01

Duff consumption by fire was studied on 15 cable-yarded clearcut units in western Oregon and western Washington. Equations are presented that predict duff consumption (in depth reduction and weight loss) from loading, consumption, and moisture of large fuels, and days since significant precipitation. When more than 25 days elapsed since 1.3 cm rainfall, the effect of...

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Simulations of hypersonic, high-enthalpy separated flow over a 'tick' configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, J. N.; O'Byrne, S.; Deepak, N. R.; Gai, S. L.

2012-11-01

The effect of slip is investigated in direct simulation Monte Carlo and Navier-Stokes-based computations of the separated flow between an expansion and a following compression surface, a geometry we call the 'tick' configuration. This configuration has been chosen as a test of separated flow with zero initial boundary layer thickness, a flowfield well suited to Chapman's analytical separated flow theories. The predicted size of the separated region is different for the two codes, although both codes meet their respective particle or grid resolution requirements. Unlike previous comparisons involving cylinder flares or double cones, the separation does not occur in a region of elevated density, and is therefore well suited to the direct simulation Monte Carlo method because the effect of slip at the surface is significant. The reasons for the difference between the two calculations are hypothesized to be a combination of significant rarefaction effects near the expansion surface and the non-zero radius of the leading edge. When the leading edge radius is accounted for, the rarefaction effect at the leading edge is less significant and the behavior of the flowfields predicted by the two methods becomes more similar.

The role of husband's and wife's economic activity status in the demand for children.

PubMed

Wong, Y

1987-04-01

Data from Hong Kong were used to examine how the demand for children is affected by the economic returns to different types of market activities. The specific data used was a 1% sample of the 1976 "Hong Kong By-Census of Population." Only women under 50 who were currently married and living with their husbands were included. The households were restricted to land-based and non-farm families with economically active husbands. There were a total of 4128 families in the sample; in 3768 families the wife had experienced at least 1 birth. A simple 1-period model of household production and fertility demand is outlined. Emphasis was on 2 aspects of the demand for children in households who choose to work in the informal sector: children are more readily employed in a family business; and wife's work in a family business or in a wage employment at home is more compatible with childcare activities. Both effects imply that holding constant other characteristics, a higher desired stock of children will be demanded. As expected, an increase in wife's predicted log earnings in home work had a negative effect on the demand for children. The effect was almost always significant. An increase in wife's productivity in the family business, as proxied by her predicted log earnings in the family business, increased the demand for children significantly. This usually is interpreted to be a result of entering a market activity which is compatible with childcare. Another possible explanation is that the price of children is lowered because if children work in the family business then their productive contributions subsidize their parents' consumption. Yet, without direct measures or proxies for these effects, it is not possible to distinguish between them. An increase in husband's predicted log earnings in wage employment had a significant negative effect on demand for children. This can be interpreted in 2 ways: if an interior solution exists for husband's allocation of time, then a negative effect implies either that children are inferior (or are observed to be so) or husband's predicted log earnings in wage employment increases the probability of specializing in it. Thus, the role of children in the family business vanishes, and the desired number of children is reduced. Both husband's and wife's schooling reduced significantly the demand for children. In general, estimates of coefficients from families with at least 1 child were smaller in absolute magnitude and less significant statistically.

Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

2013-01-01

The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide. PMID:23492780

Infant Attachment Security and Early Childhood Behavioral Inhibition Interact to Predict Adolescent Social Anxiety Symptoms

PubMed Central

Lewis-Morrarty, Erin; Degnan, Kathryn A.; Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; Pine, Daniel S.; Henderson, Heather A.; Fox, Nathan A.

2014-01-01

Insecure attachment and behavioral inhibition (BI) increase risk for internalizing problems, but few longitudinal studies have examined their interaction in predicting adolescent anxiety. This study included 165 adolescents (ages 14-17 years) selected based on their reactivity to novelty at 4 months. Infant attachment was assessed with the Strange Situation. Multi-method BI assessments were conducted across childhood. Adolescents and their parents independently reported on anxiety. The interaction of attachment and BI significantly predicted adolescent anxiety symptoms, such that BI and anxiety were only associated among adolescents with histories of insecure attachment. Exploratory analyses revealed that this effect was driven by insecure-resistant attachment and that the association between BI and social anxiety was significant only for insecure males. Clinical implications are discussed. PMID:25522059

Predicting Pilot Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions: A Meta-Analysis and Model Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, C.D.; Hooey, B.L.; Gore, B.F.; Sebok, A.; Koenecke, C.; Salud, E.

2009-01-01

Pilot response to off-nominal (very rare) events represents a critical component to understanding the safety of next generation airspace technology and procedures. We describe a meta-analysis designed to integrate the existing data regarding pilot accuracy of detecting rare, unexpected events such as runway incursions in realistic flight simulations. Thirty-five studies were identified and pilot responses were categorized by expectancy, event location, and whether the pilot was flying with a highway-in-the-sky display. All three dichotomies produced large, significant effects on event miss rate. A model of human attention and noticing, N-SEEV, was then used to predict event noticing performance as a function of event salience and expectancy, and retinal eccentricity. Eccentricity is predicted from steady state scanning by the SEEV model of attention allocation. The model was used to predict miss rates for the expectancy, location and highway-in-the-sky (HITS) effects identified in the meta-analysis. The correlation between model-predicted results and data from the meta-analysis was 0.72.

Effects of bupropion on simulated demand for cigarettes and the subjective effects of smoking.

PubMed

Madden, Gregory J; Kalman, David

2010-04-01

The biobehavioral mechanism(s) mediating bupropion's efficacy are not well understood. Behavioral economic measures such as demand curves have proven useful in investigations of the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse. Behavioral economic measures may also be used to measure the effect of pharmacotherapies on the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse. The effects of bupropion on simulated demand for cigarettes were investigated in a placebo-controlled double-blind clinical trial. Participants reported the number of cigarettes they would purchase and consume in a single day at a range of prices. The effects of medication on the subjective effects of smoking were also explored. Demand for cigarettes was well described by an exponential demand equation. Bupropion did not significantly decrease the maximum number of cigarettes that participants said they would smoke in a single day nor did it significantly alter the relation between price per cigarette and demand. Baseline demand elasticity did not predict smoking cessation, but changes in elasticity following 1 week of treatment did. Medication group had no effect on any subjective effects of smoking. Bupropion had no significant effects on demand for cigarettes. The exponential demand equation, recently introduced in behavioral economics, proved amenable to human simulated demand and might be usefully employed in other pharmacotherapy studies as it provides a potentially useful measure of changes in the essential value of the drug as a reinforcer. Such changes may be useful in predicting the efficacy of medications designed to reduce drug consumption.

Space and radiation protection: scientific requirements for space research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimmerling, W.

1995-01-01

Ionizing radiation poses a significant risk to humans living and working in space. The major sources of radiation are solar disturbances and galactic cosmic rays. The components of this radiation are energetic charged particles, protons, as well as fully ionized nuclei of all elements. The biological effects of these particles cannot be extrapolated in a straightforward manner from available data on x-rays and gamma-rays. A radiation protection program that meets the needs of spacefaring nations must have a solid scientific basis, capable not only of predicting biological effects, but also of making reliable estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. A strategy leading to such predictions is proposed, and scientific requirements arising from this strategy are discussed.

Predictors of relapse in patients with major depressive disorder in a 52-week, fixed dose, double blind, randomized trial of selegiline transdermal system (STS).

PubMed

Jang, Saeheon; Jung, Sungwon; Pae, Chiun; Kimberly, Blanchard Portland; Craig Nelson, J; Patkar, Ashwin A

2013-12-01

We investigated patient and disease characteristics predictive of relapse of MDD during a 52-week placebo controlled trial of selegiline transdermal system (STS) to identify patient characteristics relevant for STS treatment. After 10 weeks of open-label stabilization with STS, 322 remitted patients with MDD were randomized to 52-weeks of double-blind treatment with STS (6 mg/24h) or placebo (PLB). Relapse was defined as Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17) score of ≥ 14 and a CGI-S score of ≥ 3 with at least 2-point increase from the beginning of the double blind phase on 2 consecutive visits. Cox's proportional hazards regression was used to examine the effect of potential predictors (age, sex, age at onset of first MDD, early response pattern, number of previous antidepressant trials, severity of index episode, number of previous episodes, melancholic features, atypical features and anxious feature) on outcome. Exploratory analyses examined additional clinical variables (medical history, other psychiatric history, and individual items of HAM-D 28) on relapse. For all predictor variables analyzed, treatment Hazard Ratio (HR=0.48~0.54) was significantly in favor of STS (i.e., lower relapse risk than PLB). Age of onset was significantly predictive of relapse. Type, duration, and severity of depressive episodes, previous antidepressant trials, or demographic variables did not predict relapse. In additional exploratory analysis, eating disorder history and suicidal ideation were significant predictors of relapse after controlling for the effect of treatment in individual predictor analysis. While age of onset, eating disorder history and suicidal ideation were significant predictors, the majority of clinical and demographic variables were not predictive of relapse. Given the post-hoc nature of analysis, the findings need confirmation from a prospective study. It appears that selegiline transdermal system was broadly effective in preventing relapse across different subtypes and symptoms clusters of MDD. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spillover between interparental conflict and parent-child conflict within and across days.

PubMed

Sherrill, Rachel Baden; Lochman, John E; DeCoster, Jamie; Stromeyer, Sara L

2017-10-01

The present study used a daily reporting design to examine the bidirectional spillover in conflict and conflict strategies between the interparental relationship and the parent-child relationship. Participants were 60 parents with a preadolescent child at risk for aggressive behavior. Parents reported on their experience of interparental and parent-child conflict and their use of constructive and destructive conflict strategies through daily telephone interviews over 7 days. Each day was divided into 3 equal time periods roughly corresponding to early morning, daytime, and evening. Time-lagged analyses investigated the spillover in conflict within and across days. Results revealed that the presence of interparental conflict significantly predicted the presence of parent-child conflict 1 time period later and 1 full day later. Likewise, the presence of parent-child conflict significantly predicted the presence of interparental conflict 1 full day later. In terms of conflict strategy use, results revealed that parents who engaged in constructive patterns of interparental conflict were more likely to engage in constructive patterns of parent-child conflict 1 time period later and 1 full day later. Reciprocal effects for constructive parent-child conflict predicting subsequent interparental conflict were significant across all 3 time lags assessed. There were no significant, bidirectional effects for the spillover in destructive conflict. Findings have important clinical implications. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Validation of prediction models: examining temporal and geographic stability of baseline risk and estimated covariate effects

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; van Klaveren, David; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Nieboer, Daan; Lee, Douglas S.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2018-01-01

Background Stability in baseline risk and estimated predictor effects both geographically and temporally is a desirable property of clinical prediction models. However, this issue has received little attention in the methodological literature. Our objective was to examine methods for assessing temporal and geographic heterogeneity in baseline risk and predictor effects in prediction models. Methods We studied 14,857 patients hospitalized with heart failure at 90 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, in two time periods. We focussed on geographic and temporal variation in baseline risk (intercept) and predictor effects (regression coefficients) of the EFFECT-HF mortality model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients hospitalized for heart failure. We used random effects logistic regression models for the 14,857 patients. Results The baseline risk of mortality displayed moderate geographic variation, with the hospital-specific probability of 1-year mortality for a reference patient lying between 0.168 and 0.290 for 95% of hospitals. Furthermore, the odds of death were 11% lower in the second period than in the first period. However, we found minimal geographic or temporal variation in predictor effects. Among 11 tests of differences in time for predictor variables, only one had a modestly significant P value (0.03). Conclusions This study illustrates how temporal and geographic heterogeneity of prediction models can be assessed in settings with a large sample of patients from a large number of centers at different time periods. PMID:29350215

Turbulent convection in microchannels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Thomas Mcdaniel

1998-10-01

Single-phase forced convection in microchannels is an effective cooling mechanism capable of accommodating the high heat fluxes encountered in fission reactor cores, accelerator targets, microelectronic heat sinks and micro-heat exchangers. Traditional Nusselt type correlations, however, have generally been obtained using data from channels with hydraulic diameters >2 cm. Application of such relationships to microchannels is therefore questionable. A diameter limit below which traditional correlations are invalid had not been established. The objective of this investigation was to systematically address the effect of small hydraulic diameter on turbulent single-phase forced convection of water. A number of microchannels having hydraulic diameters ranging from 0.76 to 1.13 mm were constructed and tested over a wide range of flow rates and heat fluxes. Experimentally obtained Nusselt numbers were significantly higher than the values predicted by the Gnielinski correlation for large channels, the effect of decreasing diameter being to further increase heat transfer enhancement. A working correlation predicting the heat transfer enhancement for turbulent convection in microchannels was developed. The correlation predicts the lower diameter limit below which traditional correlations are no longer valid to be approximately 1.2 mm. Of further interest was the effect of the desorption of noncondensable gases dissolved in the water on turbulent convection. In large channels noncondensables undergo little desorption and their effect is negligible. The large pressure drops coupled with large temperature increases for high heat fluxes in microchannels, however, leads to a two-phase, two-component flow thereby enhancing heat transfer coefficients above their liquid- only values. A detailed mathematical model was developed to predict the resulting void fractions and liquid- coolant accelerations due to the desorption of noncondensables in microchannels. Experiments were also performed to compare heat transfer coefficients for fully-degassed water to water saturated with air at test section inlet conditions. The data showed significant heat transfer enhancement for the air-saturated case over the fully-degassed case. The degree of enhancement was greatly under-predicted by current two-phase, two- component heat transfer correlations.

Utilizing Chinese Admission Records for MACE Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Hu, Danqing; Huang, Zhengxing; Chan, Tak-Ming; Dong, Wei; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong

2016-01-01

Background: Clinical major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) prediction of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is important for a number of applications including physician decision support, quality of care assessment, and efficient healthcare service delivery on ACS patients. Admission records, as typical media to contain clinical information of patients at the early stage of their hospitalizations, provide significant potential to be explored for MACE prediction in a proactive manner. Methods: We propose a hybrid approach for MACE prediction by utilizing a large volume of admission records. Firstly, both a rule-based medical language processing method and a machine learning method (i.e., Conditional Random Fields (CRFs)) are developed to extract essential patient features from unstructured admission records. After that, state-of-the-art supervised machine learning algorithms are applied to construct MACE prediction models from data. Results: We comparatively evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 2930 ACS patient samples collected from a Chinese hospital. Our best model achieved 72% AUC in MACE prediction. In comparison of the performance between our models and two well-known ACS risk score tools, i.e., GRACE and TIMI, our learned models obtain better performances with a significant margin. Conclusions: Experimental results reveal that our approach can obtain competitive performance in MACE prediction. The comparison of classifiers indicates the proposed approach has a competitive generality with datasets extracted by different feature extraction methods. Furthermore, our MACE prediction model obtained a significant improvement by comparison with both GRACE and TIMI. It indicates that using admission records can effectively provide MACE prediction service for ACS patients at the early stage of their hospitalizations. PMID:27649220

Mediation effect of beliefs about pleasure and emotional experience between social anhedonia and prediction of pleasant events.

PubMed

Hu, Hui-Xin; Chu, Min-Yi; Yang, Yin; Wang, Ling-Ling; Zhang, Rui-Ting; Lui, Simon S Y; Cheung, Eric F C; Chan, Raymond C K

2018-06-01

Few studies have examined whether there is a relationship between social anhedonia and prediction of future events and the role of beliefs about pleasure and emotional experience. In this study, 513 college students were recruited to complete a set of self-reported questionnaires, including the Revised Social Anhedonia Scale (CSAS), the Temporal Experience of Pleasure Scale (TEPS), the Belief about Pleasure Scale (BAPS) and the Beck Depression Inventory. Moreover, a checklist of 100 daily life events was also administrated to all participants. Mediation analysis found that social anhedonia had a direct impact on prediction of pleasant events. Emotional experience partly mediated the relationship between social anhedonia and subjective prediction of pleasant events. However, beliefs about pleasure had no significant mediation effect between social anhedonia and prediction of pleasant events, but were shown to influence the subjective prediction of pleasant events completely through emotional experience. These findings suggest that beliefs about pleasure and emotional experience may be considered promising factors for interventions in individuals with anhedonia. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Can we predict failure in couple therapy early enough to enhance outcome?

PubMed

Pepping, Christopher A; Halford, W Kim; Doss, Brian D

2015-02-01

Feedback to therapists based on systematic monitoring of individual therapy progress reliably enhances therapy outcome. An implicit assumption of therapy progress feedback is that clients unlikely to benefit from therapy can be detected early enough in the course of therapy for corrective action to be taken. To explore the possibility of using feedback of therapy progress to enhance couple therapy outcome, the current study tested whether weekly therapy progress could detect off-track clients early in couple therapy. In an effectiveness trial of couple therapy, 136 couples were monitored weekly on relationship satisfaction and an expert derived algorithm was used to attempt to predict eventual therapy outcome. As expected, the algorithm detected a significant proportion of couples who did not benefit from couple therapy at Session 3, but prediction was substantially improved at Session 4 so that eventual outcome was accurately predicted for 70% of couples, with little improvement of prediction thereafter. More sophisticated algorithms might enhance prediction accuracy, and a trial of the effects of therapy progress feedback on couple therapy outcome is needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current status of predictive biomarkers for neoadjuvant therapy in esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Uemura, Norihisa; Kondo, Tadashi

2014-01-01

Neoadjuvant therapy has been proven to be extremely valuable and is widely used for advanced esophageal cancer. However, a significant proportion of treated patients (60%-70%) does not respond well to neoadjuvant treatments and develop severe adverse effects. Therefore, predictive markers for individualization of multimodality treatments are urgently needed in esophageal cancer. Recently, molecular biomarkers that predict the response to neoadjuvant therapy have been explored in multimodal approaches in esophageal cancer and successful examples of biomarker identification have been reported. In this review, promising candidates for predictive molecular biomarkers developed by using multiple molecular approaches are reviewed. Moreover, treatment strategies based on the status of predicted biomarkers are discussed, while considering the international differences in the clinical background. However, in the absence of adequate treatment options related to the results of the biomarker test, the usefulness of these diagnostic tools is limited and new effective therapies for biomarker-identified nonresponders to cancer treatment should be concurrent with the progress of predictive technologies. Further improvement in the prognosis of esophageal cancer patients can be achieved through the introduction of novel therapeutic approaches in clinical practice. PMID:25133032

Bilateral Versus Unilateral Cochlear Implants in Children: A Study of Spoken Language Outcomes

PubMed Central

Harris, David; Bennet, Lisa; Bant, Sharyn

2014-01-01

Objectives: Although it has been established that bilateral cochlear implants (CIs) offer additional speech perception and localization benefits to many children with severe to profound hearing loss, whether these improved perceptual abilities facilitate significantly better language development has not yet been clearly established. The aims of this study were to compare language abilities of children having unilateral and bilateral CIs to quantify the rate of any improvement in language attributable to bilateral CIs and to document other predictors of language development in children with CIs. Design: The receptive vocabulary and language development of 91 children was assessed when they were aged either 5 or 8 years old by using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (fourth edition), and either the Preschool Language Scales (fourth edition) or the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals (fourth edition), respectively. Cognitive ability, parent involvement in children’s intervention or education programs, and family reading habits were also evaluated. Language outcomes were examined by using linear regression analyses. The influence of elements of parenting style, child characteristics, and family background as predictors of outcomes were examined. Results: Children using bilateral CIs achieved significantly better vocabulary outcomes and significantly higher scores on the Core and Expressive Language subscales of the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals (fourth edition) than did comparable children with unilateral CIs. Scores on the Preschool Language Scales (fourth edition) did not differ significantly between children with unilateral and bilateral CIs. Bilateral CI use was found to predict significantly faster rates of vocabulary and language development than unilateral CI use; the magnitude of this effect was moderated by child age at activation of the bilateral CI. In terms of parenting style, high levels of parental involvement, low amounts of screen time, and more time spent by adults reading to children facilitated significantly better vocabulary and language outcomes. In terms of child characteristics, higher cognitive ability and female sex were predictive of significantly better language outcomes. When family background factors were examined, having tertiary-educated primary caregivers and a family history of hearing loss were significantly predictive of better outcomes. Birth order was also found to have a significant negative effect on both vocabulary and language outcomes, with each older sibling predicting a 5 to 10% decrease in scores. Conclusions: Children with bilateral CIs achieved significantly better vocabulary outcomes, and 8-year-old children with bilateral CIs had significantly better language outcomes than did children with unilateral CIs. These improvements were moderated by children’s ages at both first and second CIs. The outcomes were also significantly predicted by a number of factors related to parenting, child characteristics, and family background. Fifty-one percent of the variance in vocabulary outcomes and between 59 to 69% of the variance in language outcomes was predicted by the regression models. PMID:24557003

Toward DNA-based facial composites: preliminary results and validation.

PubMed

Claes, Peter; Hill, Harold; Shriver, Mark D

2014-11-01

The potential of constructing useful DNA-based facial composites is forensically of great interest. Given the significant identity information coded in the human face these predictions could help investigations out of an impasse. Although, there is substantial evidence that much of the total variation in facial features is genetically mediated, the discovery of which genes and gene variants underlie normal facial variation has been hampered primarily by the multipartite nature of facial variation. Traditionally, such physical complexity is simplified by simple scalar measurements defined a priori, such as nose or mouth width or alternatively using dimensionality reduction techniques such as principal component analysis where each principal coordinate is then treated as a scalar trait. However, as shown in previous and related work, a more impartial and systematic approach to modeling facial morphology is available and can facilitate both the gene discovery steps, as we recently showed, and DNA-based facial composite construction, as we show here. We first use genomic ancestry and sex to create a base-face, which is simply an average sex and ancestry matched face. Subsequently, the effects of 24 individual SNPs that have been shown to have significant effects on facial variation are overlaid on the base-face forming the predicted-face in a process akin to a photomontage or image blending. We next evaluate the accuracy of predicted faces using cross-validation. Physical accuracy of the facial predictions either locally in particular parts of the face or in terms of overall similarity is mainly determined by sex and genomic ancestry. The SNP-effects maintain the physical accuracy while significantly increasing the distinctiveness of the facial predictions, which would be expected to reduce false positives in perceptual identification tasks. To the best of our knowledge this is the first effort at generating facial composites from DNA and the results are preliminary but certainly promising, especially considering the limited amount of genetic information about the face contained in these 24 SNPs. This approach can incorporate additional SNPs as these are discovered and their effects documented. In this context we discuss three main avenues of research: expanding our knowledge of the genetic architecture of facial morphology, improving the predictive modeling of facial morphology by exploring and incorporating alternative prediction models, and increasing the value of the results through the weighted encoding of physical measurements in terms of human perception of faces. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advancing investigation and physical modeling of first-order fire effects on soils

Treesearch

William J. Massman; John M. Frank; Sacha J. Mooney

2010-01-01

Heating soil during intense wildland fires or slash-pile burns can alter the soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant long-term biological, chemical, physical, and hydrological effects. To better understand these long-term effects, it is necessary to improve modeling capability and prediction of the more immediate, or first-order, effects that fire can have on...

Indirect Socialization of Children: The Effects of Mothers' Jobs on Academic Behaviors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piotrkowski, Chaya S.; Katz, Mitchell H.

1982-01-01

Investigates indirect socialization effects of parents' occupational conditions on children's school behavior. Subjects were 60 women of lower socioeconomic status and their adolescent and preadolescent children. As predicted, mothers' job autonomy and skill utilization were significantly associated with their children's academic behaviors.…

Large eddy simulation of orientation and rotation of ellipsoidal particles in isotropic turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jincai; Jin, Guodong; Zhang, Jian

2016-03-01

The rotational motion and orientational distribution of ellipsoidal particles in turbulent flows are of significance in environmental and engineering applications. Whereas the translational motion of an ellipsoidal particle is controlled by the turbulent motions at large scales, its rotational motion is determined by the fluid velocity gradient tensor at small scales, which raises a challenge when predicting the rotational dispersion of ellipsoidal particles using large eddy simulation (LES) method due to the lack of subgrid scale (SGS) fluid motions. We report the effects of the SGS fluid motions on the orientational and rotational statistics, such as the alignment between the long axis of ellipsoidal particles and the vorticity, the mean rotational energy at various aspect ratios against those obtained with direct numerical simulation (DNS) and filtered DNS. The performances of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the SGS velocity gradient seen by the particles and the approximate deconvolution method (ADM) for LES are investigated. It is found that the missing SGS fluid motions in LES flow fields have significant effects on the rotational statistics of ellipsoidal particles. Alignment between the particles and the vorticity is weakened; and the rotational energy of the particles is reduced in LES. The SGS-SDE model leads to a large error in predicting the alignment between the particles and the vorticity and over-predicts the rotational energy of rod-like particles. The ADM significantly improves the rotational energy prediction of particles in LES.

Transient Elastography vs. Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index in Hepatitis C: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Mattos, A Z; Mattos, A A

Many different non-invasive methods have been studied with the purpose of staging liver fibrosis. The objective of this study was verifying if transient elastography is superior to aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index for staging fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C. A systematic review with meta-analysis of studies which evaluated both non-invasive tests and used biopsy as the reference standard was performed. A random-effects model was used, anticipating heterogeneity among studies. Diagnostic odds ratio was the main effect measure, and summary receiver operating characteristic curves were created. A sensitivity analysis was planned, in which the meta-analysis would be repeated excluding each study at a time. Eight studies were included in the meta-analysis. Regarding the prediction of significant fibrosis, transient elastography and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index had diagnostic odds ratios of 11.70 (95% confidence interval = 7.13-19.21) and 8.56 (95% confidence interval = 4.90-14.94) respectively. Concerning the prediction of cirrhosis, transient elastography and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index had diagnostic odds ratios of 66.49 (95% confidence interval = 23.71-186.48) and 7.47 (95% confidence interval = 4.88-11.43) respectively. In conclusion, there was no evidence of significant superiority of transient elastography over aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index regarding the prediction of significant fibrosis, but the former proved to be better than the latter concerning prediction of cirrhosis.

Artificial neural network approach to predict surgical site infection after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Kuo, Pao-Jen; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Chang, Shu-Shya; Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Tai, Hsueh-Ling; Peng, Shu-Hui; Lin, Yi-Chun; Chen, Yi-Chun; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-03-02

The aim of this study was to develop an effective surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model in patients receiving free-flap reconstruction after surgery for head and neck cancer using artificial neural network (ANN), and to compare its predictive power with that of conventional logistic regression (LR). There were 1,836 patients with 1,854 free-flap reconstructions and 438 postoperative SSIs in the dataset for analysis. They were randomly assigned tin ratio of 7:3 into a training set and a test set. Based on comprehensive characteristics of patients and diseases in the absence or presence of operative data, prediction of SSI was performed at two time points (pre-operatively and post-operatively) with a feed-forward ANN and the LR models. In addition to the calculated accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, the predictive performance of ANN and LR were assessed based on area under the curve (AUC) measures of receiver operator characteristic curves and Brier score. ANN had a significantly higher AUC (0.892) of post-operative prediction and AUC (0.808) of pre-operative prediction than LR (both P <0.0001). In addition, there was significant higher AUC of post-operative prediction than pre-operative prediction by ANN (p<0.0001). With the highest AUC and the lowest Brier score (0.090), the post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall predictive performance. The post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall performance in predicting SSI after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer.

Now or Later? An fMRI study of the effects of endogenous opioid blockade on a decision-making network

PubMed Central

Boettiger, Charlotte A.; Kelley, Elizabeth A.; Mitchell, Jennifer M.; D’Esposito, Mark; Fields, Howard L.

2009-01-01

Previously, we found that distinct brain areas predict individual selection bias in decisions between small immediate (“Now”) and larger delayed rewards (“Later”). Furthermore, such selection bias can be manipulated by endogenous opioid blockade. To test whether blocking endogenous opioids with Naltrexone (NTX) alters brain activity during decision-making in areas predicting individual bias, we compared fMRI BOLD signal correlated with Now versus Later decision-making after acute administration of NTX (50 mg) or placebo. We tested abstinent alcoholics and control subjects in a double-blind two-session design. We defined regions of interest (ROI) centered on activation peaks predicting Now versus Later selection bias. NTX administration significantly increased BOLD signal during decision-making in the right lateral orbital gyrus ROI, an area where enhanced activity during decision-making predicts Later bias. Exploratory analyses identified additional loci where BOLD signal during decision-making was enhanced (left orbitofrontal cortex, left inferior temporal gyrus, and cerebellum) or reduced (right superior temporal pole) by NTX. Additional analyses identified sites, including the right lateral orbital gyrus, in which NTX effects on BOLD signal predicted NTX effects on selection bias. These data agree with opioid receptor expression in human frontal and temporal cortices, and suggest possible mechanisms of NTX’s therapeutic effects. PMID:19258022

Prediction of individual season of birth using MRI.

PubMed

Pantazatos, Spiro P

2014-03-01

Previous research suggests statistical associations between season of birth (SOB) with prevalence of neurobehavioral disorders such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, personality traits such as novelty and sensation seeking, and suicidal behavior. These effects are thought to be mediated by seasonal differences in perinatal photoperiod, which was recently shown to imprint circadian clock neurons and behavior in rodents. However, it is unknown whether SOB is associated with any measurable differences in the normal human adult brain, and whether individual SOB can be deduced based on phenotype. Here I show that SOB predicts morphological differences in brain structure, and that MRI scans carry spatially distributed information allowing significantly above chance prediction of an individual's SOB. Using an open source database of over 550 structural brain scans, Voxel-Based Morphometry (VBM) analysis showed a significant SOB effect in the left superior temporal gyrus (STG) in males (p=0.009, FWE whole-brain corrected), with greater gray matter volumes in fall and winter births. A cosinor analysis revealed a significant annual periodicity in the left STG gray matter volume (Zero Amplitude Test: p<5×10(-7)), with a peak towards the end of December and a nadir towards the end of June, suggesting that perinatal photoperiod accounts for this SOB effect. Whole-brain VBM maps were used as input features to multivariate machine-learning based analyses to classify SOB. Significantly greater than chance prediction was achieved in females (overall accuracy 35%, p<0.001), but not in males (overall accuracy 26%, p=0.45). Pairwise binary classification in females revealed that the highest discrimination was obtained for winter vs. summer classification (peak area under the ROC curve=0.71, p<0.0005). Discriminating regions included fusiform and middle temporal gyrus, inferior and superior parietal lobe, cerebellum, and dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex. Results indicate that SOB is detectable with MRI, imply that SOB exerts effects on the developing human brain that persist through adulthood, and suggest that neuroimaging may be a valuable intermediate phenotype in bridging the gap between SOB and personality and neurobehavioral disorders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving the mapping of crop types in the Midwestern U.S. by fusing Landsat and MODIS satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Likai; Radeloff, Volker C.; Ives, Anthony R.

2017-06-01

Mapping crop types is of great importance for assessing agricultural production, land-use patterns, and the environmental effects of agriculture. Indeed, both radiometric and spatial resolution of Landsat's sensors images are optimized for cropland monitoring. However, accurate mapping of crop types requires frequent cloud-free images during the growing season, which are often not available, and this raises the question of whether Landsat data can be combined with data from other satellites. Here, our goal is to evaluate to what degree fusing Landsat with MODIS Nadir Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)-Adjusted Reflectance (NBAR) data can improve crop-type classification. Choosing either one or two images from all cloud-free Landsat observations available for the Arlington Agricultural Research Station area in Wisconsin from 2010 to 2014, we generated 87 combinations of images, and used each combination as input into the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) algorithm to predict Landsat-like images at the nominal dates of each 8-day MODIS NBAR product. Both the original Landsat and STARFM-predicted images were then classified with a support vector machine (SVM), and we compared the classification errors of three scenarios: 1) classifying the one or two original Landsat images of each combination only, 2) classifying the one or two original Landsat images plus all STARFM-predicted images, and 3) classifying the one or two original Landsat images together with STARFM-predicted images for key dates. Our results indicated that using two Landsat images as the input of STARFM did not significantly improve the STARFM predictions compared to using only one, and predictions using Landsat images between July and August as input were most accurate. Including all STARFM-predicted images together with the Landsat images significantly increased average classification error by 4% points (from 21% to 25%) compared to using only Landsat images. However, incorporating only STARFM-predicted images for key dates decreased average classification error by 2% points (from 21% to 19%) compared to using only Landsat images. In particular, if only a single Landsat image was available, adding STARFM predictions for key dates significantly decreased the average classification error by 4 percentage points from 30% to 26% (p < 0.05). We conclude that adding STARFM-predicted images can be effective for improving crop-type classification when only limited Landsat observations are available, but carefully selecting images from a full set of STARFM predictions is crucial. We developed an approach to identify the optimal subsets of all STARFM predictions, which gives an alternative method of feature selection for future research.

Effects and detection of raw material variability on the performance of near-infrared calibration models for pharmaceutical products.

PubMed

Igne, Benoit; Shi, Zhenqi; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2014-02-01

The impact of raw material variability on the prediction ability of a near-infrared calibration model was studied. Calibrations, developed from a quaternary mixture design comprising theophylline anhydrous, lactose monohydrate, microcrystalline cellulose, and soluble starch, were challenged by intentional variation of raw material properties. A design with two theophylline physical forms, three lactose particle sizes, and two starch manufacturers was created to test model robustness. Further challenges to the models were accomplished through environmental conditions. Along with full-spectrum partial least squares (PLS) modeling, variable selection by dynamic backward PLS and genetic algorithms was utilized in an effort to mitigate the effects of raw material variability. In addition to evaluating models based on their prediction statistics, prediction residuals were analyzed by analyses of variance and model diagnostics (Hotelling's T(2) and Q residuals). Full-spectrum models were significantly affected by lactose particle size. Models developed by selecting variables gave lower prediction errors and proved to be a good approach to limit the effect of changing raw material characteristics. Hotelling's T(2) and Q residuals provided valuable information that was not detectable when studying only prediction trends. Diagnostic statistics were demonstrated to be critical in the appropriate interpretation of the prediction of quality parameters. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Pharmacokinetics and Drug Interactions Determine Optimum Combination Strategies in Computational Models of Cancer Evolution.

PubMed

Chakrabarti, Shaon; Michor, Franziska

2017-07-15

The identification of optimal drug administration schedules to battle the emergence of resistance is a major challenge in cancer research. The existence of a multitude of resistance mechanisms necessitates administering drugs in combination, significantly complicating the endeavor of predicting the evolutionary dynamics of cancers and optimal intervention strategies. A thorough understanding of the important determinants of cancer evolution under combination therapies is therefore crucial for correctly predicting treatment outcomes. Here we developed the first computational strategy to explore pharmacokinetic and drug interaction effects in evolutionary models of cancer progression, a crucial step towards making clinically relevant predictions. We found that incorporating these phenomena into our multiscale stochastic modeling framework significantly changes the optimum drug administration schedules identified, often predicting nonintuitive strategies for combination therapies. We applied our approach to an ongoing phase Ib clinical trial (TATTON) administering AZD9291 and selumetinib to EGFR-mutant lung cancer patients. Our results suggest that the schedules used in the three trial arms have almost identical efficacies, but slight modifications in the dosing frequencies of the two drugs can significantly increase tumor cell eradication. Interestingly, we also predict that drug concentrations lower than the MTD are as efficacious, suggesting that lowering the total amount of drug administered could lower toxicities while not compromising on the effectiveness of the drugs. Our approach highlights the fact that quantitative knowledge of pharmacokinetic, drug interaction, and evolutionary processes is essential for identifying best intervention strategies. Our method is applicable to diverse cancer and treatment types and allows for a rational design of clinical trials. Cancer Res; 77(14); 3908-21. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Respiratory Sinus Arrhythmia Activity Predicts Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors in Non-referred Boys

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wei; Fagan, Shawn E.; Gao, Yu

2017-01-01

Atypical respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), a biomarker of emotion dysregulation, is associated with both externalizing and internalizing behaviors. In addition, social adversity and gender may moderate this association. In this study, we investigated if RSA (both resting RSA and RSA reactivity in an emotion regulation task) predicts externalizing and/or internalizing behaviors and the extent to which social adversity moderates this relationship. Two hundred and fifty-three children (at Time 1, mean age = 9.05, SD = 0.60, 48% boys) and their caregivers from the community participated in this study. Resting RSA and RSA reactivity were assessed, and caregivers reported children’s externalizing and internalizing behaviors at both Time 1 and Time 2 (1 year later). We found that lower resting RSA (but not RSA reactivity) at Time 1 was associated with increased externalizing and internalizing behaviors at Time 2 in boys, even after controlling for the effects of Time 1 behavioral problems and Time 2 age. Moreover, there was a significant interaction effect between Time 1 resting RSA and social adversity such that lower resting RSA predicted higher externalizing and internalizing behaviors in boys only under conditions of high social adversity. Follow-up analyses revealed that these predictive effects were stronger for externalizing behavior than for internalizing behavior. No significant effects were found for girls. Our findings provide further evidence that low resting RSA may be a transdiagnostic biomarker of emotion dysregulation and a predisposing risk factor for both types of behavior problems, in particular for boys who grow up in adverse environments. We conclude that biosocial interaction effects and gender differences should be considered when examining the etiological mechanisms of child psychopathology. PMID:28955262

Impact of laparoscopic ovarian drilling on serum anti-mullerian hormone levels in patients with anovulatory Polycystic Ovarian syndrome.

PubMed

Paramu, Sobhana

2016-12-01

Anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) is a marker of the activity of recruitable ovarian follicles. It is useful in the prediction of ovarian reserve. Women with polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) have elevated circulating and intrafollicular AMH levels. Laparoscopic ovarian drilling (LOD) in patients with PCOS destroys ovarian androgen-producing tissue and reduces their peripheral conversion to estrogens. Identifying factors that determine the response of patients with PCOS to LOD will help in selecting the patients who would likely benefit from this treatment. AMH is one such marker that can predict the response to LOD. To evaluate the effect of LOD on serum AMH levels among PCOS responders and non-responders and the usefulness of AMH as a tool in predicting the response to LOD, and to whether there was loss of ovarian function after LOD. This is a prospective cohort study including 30 clomiphene-resistant women with anovulatory PCOS undergoing LOD. Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of LOD on serum levels of AMH on these women. A significant fall in the levels of AMH was observed after LOD in both responders and non-responders (p<0.001). Women with AMH >8.3 ng/mL showed a significantly lower ovulation rate (33.3%). LOD was not associated with a risk of diminished ovarian reserve. LOD is an effective first-line treatment for women with PCOS who are clomiphene resistant. LOD has no negative effect on ovarian reserve. AMH is a useful marker in predicting the outcome of LOD.

Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

2015-01-01

The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN using images of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN.

Effects of the Forecasting Methods, Precipitation Character, and Satellite Resolution on the Predictability of Short-Term Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN) from a Geostationary Satellite

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu; Xi, Du-Gang; Li, Zhao-Liang; Ji, Wei

2015-01-01

The prediction of the short-term quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) from consecutive gestational satellite images has important implications for hydro-meteorological modeling and forecasting. However, the systematic analysis of the predictability of QPN is limited. The objective of this study is to evaluate effects of the forecasting model, precipitation character, and satellite resolution on the predictability of QPN usingimages of a Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) which covered all intensive observation since its launch despite of only a total of approximately 10 days. In the first step, three methods were compared to evaluate the performance of the QPN methods: a pixel-based QPN using the maximum correlation method (PMC); the Horn-Schunck optical-flow scheme (PHS); and the Pyramid Lucas-Kanade Optical Flow method (PPLK), which is newly proposed here. Subsequently, the effect of the precipitation systems was indicated by 2338 imageries of 8 precipitation periods. Then, the resolution dependence was demonstrated by analyzing the QPN with six spatial resolutions (0.1atial, 0.3a, 0.4atial rand 0.6). The results show that the PPLK improves the predictability of QPN with better performance than the other comparison methods. The predictability of the QPN is significantly determined by the precipitation system, and a coarse spatial resolution of the satellite reduces the predictability of QPN. PMID:26447470

Overweight, Body Image, and Depression in Asian and Hispanic Adolescents

PubMed Central

Xie, Bin; Unger, Jennifer B.; Gallaher, Peggy; Johnson, C. Anderson; Wu, Qiaobing; Chou, Chih-Ping

2010-01-01

Objectives To prospectively investigate associations between overweight and depressive symptoms in Asian and Hispanic adolescents. Methods Data included 780 Hispanic and 375 Asian students. Structural equation model was used to prospectively explore moderation effects of gender, ethnicity, and acculturation on associations of overweight, body image dissatisfaction, and depressive symptoms. Results Significant mediation effect was found only in Asian girls (mediation effect=0.16, P<0.05) and girls with high acculturation (mediation effect=0.17, P<0.05). Overweight significantly predicted higher body image dissatisfaction, which in turn was significantly related to depressive symptoms. Conclusion Our findings help understanding the association of overweight and experience of depressive symptoms. PMID:20218759

Do Resting Plasma β-Endorphin Levels Predict Responses to Opioid Analgesics?

PubMed

Bruehl, Stephen; Burns, John W; Gupta, Rajnish; Buvanendran, Asokumar; Chont, Melissa; Orlowska, Daria; Schuster, Erik; France, Christopher R

2017-01-01

Clinically feasible predictors of opioid analgesic responses for use in precision pain medicine protocols are needed. This study evaluated whether resting plasma β-endorphin (BE) levels predicted responses to an opioid analgesic, and whether chronic pain status or sex moderated these effects. Participants included 73 individuals with chronic low back pain (CLBP) and 88 pain-free controls, all using no daily opioid analgesics. Participants attended 2 identical laboratory sessions during which they received either intravenous morphine (0.08 mg/kg) or saline placebo, with blood samples obtained before drug administration to assay resting plasma BE levels. Once peak drug activity was achieved in each session, participants engaged in an ischemic forearm pain task (ISC) and a heat pain task. Morphine analgesic effects were derived reflecting the difference in pain outcomes between placebo and morphine conditions. In hierarchical regressions, significant Type (CLBP vs. control)×BE interactions (Ps<0.05) were noted for morphine effects on ISC tolerance, ISC intratask pain ratings, and thermal VAS unpleasantness ratings. These interactions derived primarily from associations between higher BE levels and smaller morphine effects restricted to the CLBP subgroup. All other BE-related effects, including sex interactions, for predicting morphine analgesia failed to reach statistical significance. BE was a predictor of morphine analgesia for only 3 out of 9 outcomes examined, with these effects moderated by chronic pain status but not sex. On the whole, results do not suggest that resting plasma BE levels are likely to be a clinically useful predictor of opioid analgesic responses.

Additive Genetic Risk from Five Serotonin System Polymorphisms Interacts with Interpersonal Stress to Predict Depression

PubMed Central

Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Stroud, Catherine B.; Mineka, Susan; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Adam, Emma K.; Redei, Eva E.; Hammen, Constance; Craske, Michelle G.

2016-01-01

Behavioral genetic research supports polygenic models of depression in which many genetic variations each contribute a small amount of risk, and prevailing diathesis-stress models suggest gene-environment interactions (GxE). Multilocus profile scores of additive risk offer an approach that is consistent with polygenic models of depression risk. In a first demonstration of this approach in a GxE predicting depression, we created an additive multilocus profile score from five serotonin system polymorphisms (one each in the genes HTR1A, HTR2A, HTR2C, and two in TPH2). Analyses focused on two forms of interpersonal stress as environmental risk factors. Using five years of longitudinal diagnostic and life stress interviews from 387 emerging young adults in the Youth Emotion Project, survival analyses show that this multilocus profile score interacts with major interpersonal stressful life events to predict major depressive episode onsets (HR = 1.815, p = .007). Simultaneously, there was a significant protective effect of the profile score without a recent event (HR = 0.83, p = .030). The GxE effect with interpersonal chronic stress was not significant (HR = 1.15, p = .165). Finally, effect sizes for genetic factors examined ignoring stress suggested such an approach could lead to overlooking or misinterpreting genetic effects. Both the GxE effect and the protective simple main effect were replicated in a sample of early adolescent girls (N = 105). We discuss potential benefits of the multilocus genetic profile score approach and caveats for future research. PMID:26595467

Adjusted Clinical Groups: Predictive Accuracy for Medicaid Enrollees in Three States

PubMed Central

Adams, E. Kathleen; Bronstein, Janet M.; Raskind-Hood, Cheryl

2002-01-01

Actuarial split-sample methods were used to assess predictive accuracy of adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) for Medicaid enrollees in Georgia, Mississippi (lagging in managed care penetration), and California. Accuracy for two non-random groups—high-cost and located in urban poor areas—was assessed. Measures for random groups were derived with and without short-term enrollees to assess the effect of turnover on predictive accuracy. ACGs improved predictive accuracy for high-cost conditions in all States, but did so only for those in Georgia's poorest urban areas. Higher and more unpredictable expenses of short-term enrollees moderated the predictive power of ACGs. This limitation was significant in Mississippi due in part, to that State's very high proportion of short-term enrollees. PMID:12545598

The influence of a wall function on turbine blade heat transfer prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitaker, Kevin W.

1989-01-01

The second phase of a continuing investigation to improve the prediction of turbine blade heat transfer coefficients was completed. The present study specifically investigated how a numeric wall function in the turbulence model of a two-dimensional boundary layer code, STAN5, affected heat transfer prediction capabilities. Several sources of inaccuracy in the wall function were identified and then corrected or improved. Heat transfer coefficient predictions were then obtained using each one of the modifications to determine its effect. Results indicated that the modifications made to the wall function can significantly affect the prediction of heat transfer coefficients on turbine blades. The improvement in accuracy due the modifications is still inconclusive and is still being investigated.

Recent NASA Research on Aerodynamic Modeling of Post-Stall and Spin Dynamics of Large Transport Airplanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murch, Austin M.; Foster, John V.

2007-01-01

A simulation study was conducted to investigate aerodynamic modeling methods for prediction of post-stall flight dynamics of large transport airplanes. The research approach involved integrating dynamic wind tunnel data from rotary balance and forced oscillation testing with static wind tunnel data to predict aerodynamic forces and moments during highly dynamic departure and spin motions. Several state-of-the-art aerodynamic modeling methods were evaluated and predicted flight dynamics using these various approaches were compared. Results showed the different modeling methods had varying effects on the predicted flight dynamics and the differences were most significant during uncoordinated maneuvers. Preliminary wind tunnel validation data indicated the potential of the various methods for predicting steady spin motions.

Compressed sensing based missing nodes prediction in temporal communication network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Guangquan; Ma, Yang; Liu, Zhong; Xie, Fuli

2018-02-01

The reconstruction of complex network topology is of great theoretical and practical significance. Most research so far focuses on the prediction of missing links. There are many mature algorithms for link prediction which have achieved good results, but research on the prediction of missing nodes has just begun. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for missing node prediction in complex networks. We detect the position of missing nodes based on their neighbor nodes under the theory of compressed sensing, and extend the algorithm to the case of multiple missing nodes using spectral clustering. Experiments on real public network datasets and simulated datasets show that our algorithm can detect the locations of hidden nodes effectively with high precision.

Did the DSM-5 Improve the Traumatic Stressor Criterion?: Association of DSM-IV and DSM-5 Criterion A with Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms.

PubMed

Larsen, Sadie E; Berenbaum, Howard

2017-01-01

A recent meta-analysis found that DSM-III- and DSM-IV-defined traumas were associated with only slightly higher posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms than nontraumatic stressors. The current study is the first to examine whether DSM-5-defined traumas were associated with higher levels of PTSD than DSM-IV-defined traumas. Further, we examined theoretically relevant event characteristics to determine whether characteristics other than those outlined in the DSM could predict PTSD symptoms. One hundred six women who had experienced a trauma or significant stressor completed questionnaires assessing PTSD, depression, impairment, and event characteristics. Events were rated for whether they qualified as DSM-IV and DSM-5 trauma. There were no significant differences between DSM-IV-defined traumas and stressors. For DSM-5, effect sizes were slightly larger but still nonsignificant (except for significantly higher hyperarousal following traumas vs. stressors). Self-reported fear for one's life significantly predicted PTSD symptoms. Our results indicate that the current DSM-5 definition of trauma, although a slight improvement from DSM-IV, is not highly predictive of who develops PTSD symptoms. Our study also indicates the importance of individual perception of life threat in the prediction of PTSD. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Development of a wound healing index for patients with chronic wounds.

PubMed

Horn, Susan D; Fife, Caroline E; Smout, Randall J; Barrett, Ryan S; Thomson, Brett

2013-01-01

Randomized controlled trials in wound care generalize poorly because they exclude patients with significant comorbid conditions. Research using real-world wound care patients is hindered by lack of validated methods to stratify patients according to severity of underlying illnesses. We developed a comprehensive stratification system for patients with wounds that predicts healing likelihood. Complete medical record data on 50,967 wounds from the United States Wound Registry were assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, etc.). Factors known to be associated with healing were evaluated using logistic regression models. Significant variables (p < 0.05) were determined and subsequently tested on a holdout sample of data. A different model predicted healing for each wound type. Some variables predicted significantly in nearly all models: wound size, wound age, number of wounds, evidence of bioburden, tissue type exposed (Wagner grade or stage), being nonambulatory, and requiring hospitalization during the course of care. Variables significant in some models included renal failure, renal transplant, malnutrition, autoimmune disease, and cardiovascular disease. All models validated well when applied to the holdout sample. The "Wound Healing Index" can validly predict likelihood of wound healing among real-world patients and can facilitate comparative effectiveness research to identify patients needing advanced therapeutics. © 2013 by the Wound Healing Society.

Would the solvent effect be the main cause of band shift in the theoretical absorption spectrum of large lanthanide complexes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Ricardo O.; Rodrigues, Nailton M.; Rocha, Gerd B.; Gimenez, Iara F.; da Costa Junior, Nivan B.

2011-06-01

As most reactions take place in solution, the study of solvent effects on relevant molecular properties - either by experimental or theoretical methods - is crucial for the design of new processes and prediction of technological properties. In spite of this, only few works focusing the influence of the solvent nature specifically on the spectroscopic properties of lanthanide complexes can be found in the literature. The present work describes a theoretical study of the solvent effect on the prediction of the absorption spectra for lanthanide complexes, but other possible relevant factors have been also considered such as the molecular geometry and the excitation window used for interaction configuration (CI) calculations. The [Eu(ETA) 2· nH 2O] +1 complex has been chosen as an ideal candidate for this type of study due to its small number of atoms (only 49) and also because the absorption spectrum exhibits a single band. Two Monte Carlo simulations were performed, the first one considering the [Eu(ETA) 2] +1 complex in 400 water molecules, evidencing that the complex presents four coordinated water molecules. The second simulation considered the [Eu(ETA) 2·4H 2O] +1 complex in 400 ethanol molecules, in order to evaluate the solvent effect on the shift of the maximum absorption in calculated spectra, compared to the experimental one. Quantum chemical studies were also performed in order to evaluate the effect of the accuracy of calculated ground state geometry on the prediction of absorption spectra. The influence of the excitation window used for CI calculations on the spectral shift was also evaluated. No significant solvent effect was found on the prediction of the absorption spectrum for [Eu(ETA) 2·4H 2O] +1 complex. A small but significant effect of the ground state geometry on the transition energy and oscillator strength was also observed. Finally it must be emphasized that the absorption spectra of lanthanide complexes can be predicted with great accuracy by the combined use of semiempirical Sparkle/AM1 and INDO/S-CIS as long as the largest possible excitation window is used in the configuration interaction calculation.

The impact of distracter-target similarity on contextual cueing effects of children and adults.

PubMed

Yang, Yingying; Merrill, Edward C

2014-05-01

Contextual cueing reflects a memory-based attentional guidance process that develops through repeated exposure to displays in which a target location has been consistently paired with a specific context. In two experiments, we compared 20 younger children's (6-7 years old), 20 older children's (9-10 years old), and 20 young adults' (18-21 years old) abilities to acquire contextual cueing effects from displays in which half of the distracters predicted the location of the target and half did not. Across experiments, we varied the similarity between the predictive and nonpredictive distracters and the target. In Experiment 1, the predictive distracters were visually similar to the target and dissimilar from the nonpredictive distracters. In Experiment 2, the nonpredictive distracters were also similar to the target and predictive distracters. All three age groups exhibited contextual cueing in Experiment 1, although the effect was not as strong for the younger children relative to older children and adults. All participants exhibited weaker contextual cueing effects in Experiment 2, with the younger children not exhibiting significant contextual cueing at all. Apparently, when search processes could not be guided to the predictive distracters on the basis of salient stimulus features, younger children in particular experienced difficulty in implicitly identifying and using aspects of the context to facilitate with the acquisition of contextual cueing effects. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting sugar consumption: Application of an integrated dual-process, dual-phase model.

PubMed

Hagger, Martin S; Trost, Nadine; Keech, Jacob J; Chan, Derwin K C; Hamilton, Kyra

2017-09-01

Excess consumption of added dietary sugars is related to multiple metabolic problems and adverse health conditions. Identifying the modifiable social cognitive and motivational constructs that predict sugar consumption is important to inform behavioral interventions aimed at reducing sugar intake. We tested the efficacy of an integrated dual-process, dual-phase model derived from multiple theories to predict sugar consumption. Using a prospective design, university students (N = 90) completed initial measures of the reflective (autonomous and controlled motivation, intentions, attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control), impulsive (implicit attitudes), volitional (action and coping planning), and behavioral (past sugar consumption) components of the proposed model. Self-reported sugar consumption was measured two weeks later. A structural equation model revealed that intentions, implicit attitudes, and, indirectly, autonomous motivation to reduce sugar consumption had small, significant effects on sugar consumption. Attitudes, subjective norm, and, indirectly, autonomous motivation to reduce sugar consumption predicted intentions. There were no effects of the planning constructs. Model effects were independent of the effects of past sugar consumption. The model identified the relative contribution of reflective and impulsive components in predicting sugar consumption. Given the prominent role of the impulsive component, interventions that assist individuals in managing cues-to-action and behavioral monitoring are likely to be effective in regulating sugar consumption. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Turbulence Modeling Effects on the Prediction of Equilibrium States of Buoyant Shear Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, C. Y.; So, R. M. C.; Gatski, T. B.

2001-01-01

The effects of turbulence modeling on the prediction of equilibrium states of turbulent buoyant shear flows were investigated. The velocity field models used include a two-equation closure, a Reynolds-stress closure assuming two different pressure-strain models and three different dissipation rate tensor models. As for the thermal field closure models, two different pressure-scrambling models and nine different temperature variance dissipation rate, Epsilon(0) equations were considered. The emphasis of this paper is focused on the effects of the Epsilon(0)-equation, of the dissipation rate models, of the pressure-strain models and of the pressure-scrambling models on the prediction of the approach to equilibrium turbulence. Equilibrium turbulence is defined by the time rate (if change of the scaled Reynolds stress anisotropic tensor and heat flux vector becoming zero. These conditions lead to the equilibrium state parameters. Calculations show that the Epsilon(0)-equation has a significant effect on the prediction of the approach to equilibrium turbulence. For a particular Epsilon(0)-equation, all velocity closure models considered give an equilibrium state if anisotropic dissipation is accounted for in one form or another in the dissipation rate tensor or in the Epsilon(0)-equation. It is further found that the models considered for the pressure-strain tensor and the pressure-scrambling vector have little or no effect on the prediction of the approach to equilibrium turbulence.

Statin Effects on Aggression: Results from the UCSD Statin Study, a Randomized Control Trial

PubMed Central

Golomb, Beatrice A.; Dimsdale, Joel E.; Koslik, Hayley J.; Evans, Marcella A.; Lu, Xun; Rossi, Steven; Mills, Paul J.; Criqui, Michael H.

2015-01-01

Background Low/ered cholesterol is linked to aggression in some study designs. Cases/series have reported reproducible aggression increases on statins, but statins also bear mechanisms that could reduce aggression. Usual statin effects on aggression have not been characterized. Methods 1016 adults (692 men, 324 postmenopausal women) underwent double-blind sex-stratified randomization to placebo, simvastatin 20mg, or pravastatin 40mg (6 months). The Overt-Aggression-Scale-Modified–Aggression-Subscale (OASMa) assessed behavioral aggression. A significant sex-statin interaction was deemed to dictate sex-stratified analysis. Exploratory analyses assessed the influence of baseline-aggression, testosterone-change (men), sleep and age. Results The sex-statin interaction was significant (P=0.008). In men, statins tended to decrease aggression, significantly so on pravastatin: difference=-1.0(SE=0.49)P=0.038. Three marked outliers (OASMa-change ≥40 points) offset otherwise strong significance-vs-placebo: statins:-1.3(SE=0.38)P=0.0007; simvastatin:-1.4(SE=0.43)P=0.0011; pravastatin:-1.2(SE=0.45)P=0.0083. Age≤40 predicted greater aggression-decline on statins: difference=-1.4(SE=0.64)P=0.026. Aggression-protection was emphasized in those with low baseline aggression: age<40-and-low-baseline-aggression (N=40) statin-difference-vs-placebo=-2.4(SE=0.71)P=0.0016. Statins (especially simvastatin) lowered testosterone, and increased sleep problems. Testosterone-drop on statins predicted aggression-decline: β=0.64(SE=0.30)P=0.034, particularly on simvastatin: β=1.29(SE=0.49)P=0.009. Sleep-worsening on statins significantly predicted aggression-increase: β=2.2(SE=0.55)P<0.001, particularly on simvastatin (potentially explaining two of the outliers): β=3.3(SE=0.83)P<0.001. Among (postmenopausal) women, a borderline aggression-increase on statins became significant with exclusion of one younger, surgically-menopausal woman (N=310) β=0.70(SE=0.34)P=0.039. The increase was significant, without exclusions, for women of more typical postmenopausal age (≥45): (N=304) β=0.68(SE=0.34)P=0.048 – retaining significance with modified age-cutoffs (≥50 or ≥55). Significance was observed separately for simvastatin. The aggression-increase in women on statins was stronger in those with low baseline aggression (N=175) β=0.84(SE=0.30)P=0.006. No statin effect on whole blood serotonin was observed; and serotonin-change did not predict aggression-change. Conclusion Statin effects on aggression differed by sex and age: Statins generally decreased aggression in men; and generally increased aggression in women. Both findings were selectively prominent in participants with low baseline aggression – bearing lower change-variance, rendering an effect more readily evident. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00330980 PMID:26132393

The Effects of Mood, Cognitive Style, and Cognitive Ability on Implicit Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pretz, Jean E.; Totz, Kathryn Sentman; Kaufman, Scott Barry

2010-01-01

In an experiment with 109 undergraduates, we examined the effect of mood, cognitive style, and cognitive ability on implicit learning in the Artificial Grammar (AG) and Serial Reaction Time (SRT) tasks. Negative mood facilitated AG learning, but had no significant effect on SRT learning. Rational cognitive style predicted greater learning on both…

Predicting contraceptive vigilance in adolescent females: a projective method for assessing ego development.

PubMed

Speier, P L; Mélèse-D'Hospital, I A; Tschann, J M; Moore, P J; Adler, N E

1997-01-01

To test the hypothesis that ego development would predict contraceptive use. Problems in ego development were defined in terms of three factors: (1) realism, (2) complexity, and (3) discontinuity. Forty-one respondents aged 14-17 years were selected from a group of 233 adolescents who were administered a projective pregnancy scenario and participated in a 12-month follow-up. Twenty of these adolescents were randomly selected from the group determined to be effective contraceptive users, while 21 were randomly selected from the group of poor contraceptors. Chi-square test revealed a significant association (p < .0005) between the composite ego maturity (EM) measure and contraceptive outcome (chi 2 = 13.82, with df-1). Low scores on the ego maturity measure predicted poor contraceptive use. EM was unrelated to age but was associated with race (chi 2 = 7.535, .025 < p < .05). However, EM predicted contraceptive use when controlling for the effects of race. A simple, time-efficient projective pregnancy scenario is an effective way of determining adolescent females at risk for poor contraceptive effectiveness and, therefore, untimely pregnancy. These stories are analyzed using factors related to the ego development of the adolescent. Subjects who scored lower on this measure have poor contraceptive effectiveness while subjects with higher levels demonstrated effective contraception use, at 1-year follow-up.

New dimension analyses with error analysis for quaking aspen and black spruce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, K. D.; Botkin, D. B.; Feiveson, A. H.

1987-01-01

Dimension analysis for black spruce in wetland stands and trembling aspen are reported, including new approaches in error analysis. Biomass estimates for sacrificed trees have standard errors of 1 to 3%; standard errors for leaf areas are 10 to 20%. Bole biomass estimation accounts for most of the error for biomass, while estimation of branch characteristics and area/weight ratios accounts for the leaf area error. Error analysis provides insight for cost effective design of future analyses. Predictive equations for biomass and leaf area, with empirically derived estimators of prediction error, are given. Systematic prediction errors for small aspen trees and for leaf area of spruce from different site-types suggest a need for different predictive models within species. Predictive equations are compared with published equations; significant differences may be due to species responses to regional or site differences. Proportional contributions of component biomass in aspen change in ways related to tree size and stand development. Spruce maintains comparatively constant proportions with size, but shows changes corresponding to site. This suggests greater morphological plasticity of aspen and significance for spruce of nutrient conditions.

A Predictive Validity Study of Creative and Effective Managerial Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moffie, D. J.; Goodner, Susan

This study tests the following hypotheses concerning the job creativity of managers: (1) There is a significant relationship between psychological test scores secured on subjects 15 to 20 years ago and creative performance on the job today, (2) there is a significant relationship between biographical information secured from subjects at the time…

Predicting Differential Response to EMG Biofeedback and Relaxation Training: The Role of Cognitive Structure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, James D.

1984-01-01

Analyzed treatment outcome data for 102 headache patients who had been assigned randomly to receive either EMG biofeedback (N=70) or relaxation training (N=32). Analysis demonstrated that relaxation training was significantly more effective than biofeedback and that mixed headache patients improved significantly less than either migraine or…

Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study.

PubMed

Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

2012-03-27

Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1-7.2. Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1-7.2 is most promising.

Effect of trabeculectomy on the accuracy of intraocular lens calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Bae, Hyoung Won; Lee, Yun Ha; Kim, Do Wook; Lee, Taekjune; Hong, Samin; Seong, Gong Je; Kim, Chan Yun

2016-08-01

The objective of the study is to examine the effect of trabeculectomy on intraocular lens power calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) undergoing cataract surgery. The design is retrospective data analysis. There are a total of 55 eyes of 55 patients with OAG who had a cataract surgery alone or in combination with trabeculectomy. We classified OAG subjects into the following groups based on surgical history: only cataract surgery (OC group), cataract surgery after prior trabeculectomy (CAT group), and cataract surgery performed in combination with trabeculectomy (CCT group). Differences between actual and predicted postoperative refractive error. Mean error (ME, difference between postoperative and predicted SE) in the CCT group was significantly lower (towards myopia) than that of the OC group (P = 0.008). Additionally, mean absolute error (MAE, absolute value of ME) in the CAT group was significantly greater than in the OC group (P = 0.006). Using linear mixed models, the ME calculated with the SRK II formula was more accurate than the ME predicted by the SRK T formula in the CAT (P = 0.032) and CCT (P = 0.035) groups. The intraocular lens power prediction accuracy was lower in the CAT and CCT groups than in the OC group. The prediction error was greater in the CAT group than in the OC group, and the direction of the prediction error tended to be towards myopia in the CCT group. The SRK II formula may be more accurate in predicting residual refractive error in the CAT and CCT groups. © 2016 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Predictors of occupational burnout among nurses: a dominance analysis of job stressors.

PubMed

Sun, Ji-Wei; Bai, Hua-Yu; Li, Jia-Huan; Lin, Ping-Zhen; Zhang, Hui-Hui; Cao, Feng-Lin

2017-12-01

To quantitatively compare dimensions of job stressors' effects on nurses' burnout. Nurses, a key group of health service providers, often experience stressors at work. Extensive research has examined the relationship between job stressors and burnout; however, less has specifically compared the effects of job stressor domains on nurses' burnout. A quantitative cross-sectional survey examined three general hospitals in Jinan, China. Participants were 602 nurses. We compared five potential stressors' ability to predict nurses' burnout using dominance analysis and assuming that each stressor was intercorrelated. Strong positive correlations were found between all five job stressors and burnout. Interpersonal relationships and management issues most strongly predicted participants' burnout (11·3% of average variance). Job stressors, and particularly interpersonal relationships and management issues, significantly predict nurses' job burnout. Understanding the relative effect of job stressors may help identify fruitful areas for intervention and improve nurse recruitment and retention. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

School discipline and disruptive classroom behavior: the moderating effects of student perceptions.

PubMed

Way, Sandra M

2011-01-01

This study examines the relationship between school discipline and student classroom behavior. A traditional deterrence framework predicts that more severe discipline will reduce misbehavior. In contrast, normative perspectives suggest that compliance depends upon commitment to rules and authority, including perceptions of fairness and legitimacy. Using school and individual-level data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 and multilevel regression modeling, the author finds support for the normative perspective. Students who perceive school authority as legitimate and teacher–student relations as positive are rated as less disruptive. While perceptions of fairness also predict lower disruptions, the effects are mediated by positive teacher–student relations. Contrary to the deterrence framework, more school rules and higher perceived strictness predicts more, not less, disruptive behavior. In addition, a significant interaction effect suggests that attending schools with more severe punishments may have the unintended consequence of generating defiance among certain youth.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G R William; Moran, Jonathan A

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.

Optimization and Prediction of Ultimate Tensile Strength in Metal Active Gas Welding.

PubMed

Ampaiboon, Anusit; Lasunon, On-Uma; Bubphachot, Bopit

2015-01-01

We investigated the effect of welding parameters on ultimate tensile strength of structural steel, ST37-2, welded by Metal Active Gas welding. A fractional factorial design was used for determining the significance of six parameters: wire feed rate, welding voltage, welding speed, travel angle, tip-to-work distance, and shielded gas flow rate. A regression model to predict ultimate tensile strength was developed. Finally, we verified optimization of the process parameters experimentally. We achieved an optimum tensile strength (558 MPa) and wire feed rate, 19 m/min, had the greatest effect, followed by tip-to-work distance, 7 mm, welding speed, 200 mm/min, welding voltage, 30 V, and travel angle, 60°. Shield gas flow rate, 10 L/min, was slightly better but had little effect in the 10-20 L/min range. Tests showed that our regression model was able to predict the ultimate tensile strength within 4%.

Cooperative outcome interdependence, task reflexivity, and team effectiveness: a motivated information processing perspective.

PubMed

De Dreu, Carsten K W

2007-05-01

A motivated information processing perspective (C. K. W. De Dreu & P. J. D. Carnevale, 2003; see also V. B. Hinsz, R. S. Tindale, & D. A. Vollrath, 1997) was used to predict that perceived cooperative outcome interdependence interacts with team-level reflexivity to predict information sharing, learning, and team effectiveness. A cross-sectional field study involving management and cross-functional teams (N = 46) performing nonroutine, complex tasks corroborated predictions: The more team members perceived cooperative outcome interdependence, the better they shared information, the more they learned and the more effective they were, especially when task reflexivity was high. When task reflexivity was low, no significant relationship was found between cooperative outcome interdependence and team processes and performance. The author concludes that the motivated information processing perspective is valid outside the confines of the laboratory and can be extended toward teamwork in organizations. 2007 APA, all rights reserved

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G. R. William

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. PMID:28817596

Institute Effectiveness through Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, B. J.

1984-01-01

An institution with a marketing orientation can (1) recognize shifts in the market and in perceptions of activities of significant markets or competing institutions and (2) respond to them. Institutions with strategic marketing may be better able to predict or influence market shifts and be judged as effective in the areas it prefers. (MSE)

[Research on Kalman interpolation prediction model based on micro-region PM2.5 concentration].

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Zheng, Bin; Chen, Binlin; An, Yaoming; Jiang, Xiaoming; Li, Zhangyong

2018-02-01

In recent years, the pollution problem of particulate matter, especially PM2.5, is becoming more and more serious, which has attracted many people's attention from all over the world. In this paper, a Kalman prediction model combined with cubic spline interpolation is proposed, which is applied to predict the concentration of PM2.5 in the micro-regional environment of campus, and to realize interpolation simulation diagram of concentration of PM2.5 and simulate the spatial distribution of PM2.5. The experiment data are based on the environmental information monitoring system which has been set up by our laboratory. And the predicted and actual values of PM2.5 concentration data have been checked by the way of Wilcoxon signed-rank test. We find that the value of bilateral progressive significance probability was 0.527, which is much greater than the significant level α = 0.05. The mean absolute error (MEA) of Kalman prediction model was 1.8 μg/m 3 , the average relative error (MER) was 6%, and the correlation coefficient R was 0.87. Thus, the Kalman prediction model has a better effect on the prediction of concentration of PM2.5 than those of the back propagation (BP) prediction and support vector machine (SVM) prediction. In addition, with the combination of Kalman prediction model and the spline interpolation method, the spatial distribution and local pollution characteristics of PM2.5 can be simulated.

Overgeneral Autobiographical Memory as a Predictor of the Course of Depression: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sumner, Jennifer A.; Griffith, James W.; Mineka, Susan

2010-01-01

Overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) is a robust phenomenon in depression, but the extent to which OGM predicts the course of depression is not well-established. This meta-analysis synthesized data from 15 studies to examine the degree to which OGM 1) correlates with depressive symptoms at follow-up, and 2) predicts depressive symptoms at follow-up over and above initial depressive symptoms. Although the effects are small, specific and categoric/overgeneral memories generated during the Autobiographical Memory Test significantly predicted the course of depression. Fewer specific memories and more categoric/overgeneral memories were associated with higher follow-up depressive symptoms, and predicted higher follow-up symptoms over and above initial symptoms. Potential moderators were also examined. The age and clinical depression status of participants, as well as the length of follow-up between the two depressive symptom assessments, significantly moderated the predictive relationship between OGM and the course of depression. The predictive relationship between specific memories and follow-up depressive symptoms became greater with increasing age and a shorter length of follow-up, and the predictive relationship was stronger for participants with clinical depression diagnoses than for nonclinical participants. These findings highlight OGM as a predictor of the course of depression, and future studies should investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. PMID:20399418

PFP: Automated prediction of gene ontology functional annotations with confidence scores using protein sequence data.

PubMed

Hawkins, Troy; Chitale, Meghana; Luban, Stanislav; Kihara, Daisuke

2009-02-15

Protein function prediction is a central problem in bioinformatics, increasing in importance recently due to the rapid accumulation of biological data awaiting interpretation. Sequence data represents the bulk of this new stock and is the obvious target for consideration as input, as newly sequenced organisms often lack any other type of biological characterization. We have previously introduced PFP (Protein Function Prediction) as our sequence-based predictor of Gene Ontology (GO) functional terms. PFP interprets the results of a PSI-BLAST search by extracting and scoring individual functional attributes, searching a wide range of E-value sequence matches, and utilizing conventional data mining techniques to fill in missing information. We have shown it to be effective in predicting both specific and low-resolution functional attributes when sufficient data is unavailable. Here we describe (1) significant improvements to the PFP infrastructure, including the addition of prediction significance and confidence scores, (2) a thorough benchmark of performance and comparisons to other related prediction methods, and (3) applications of PFP predictions to genome-scale data. We applied PFP predictions to uncharacterized protein sequences from 15 organisms. Among these sequences, 60-90% could be annotated with a GO molecular function term at high confidence (>or=80%). We also applied our predictions to the protein-protein interaction network of the Malaria plasmodium (Plasmodium falciparum). High confidence GO biological process predictions (>or=90%) from PFP increased the number of fully enriched interactions in this dataset from 23% of interactions to 94%. Our benchmark comparison shows significant performance improvement of PFP relative to GOtcha, InterProScan, and PSI-BLAST predictions. This is consistent with the performance of PFP as the overall best predictor in both the AFP-SIG '05 and CASP7 function (FN) assessments. PFP is available as a web service at http://dragon.bio.purdue.edu/pfp/. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Predictors of Abstinence Self-Efficacy: Examining the role of HIV-risk Sexual Behavior.

PubMed

Majer, John M; Glantsman, Olya; Palmer, John S; Jason, Leonard A

Abstinence self-efficacy, or the confidence in ones' beliefs in one's ability to effectively engage in behaviors to maintain substance use abstinence, is a crucial recovery resource. However, little research has been conducted on what predicts increases in this recovery resource. Understanding predictors of abstinence self-efficacy could help social service practitioners in creating effective treatment plans/interventions while extending what is presently known in this small body of research. Predictors of abstinence self-efficacy were analyzed among a sample of ex-offenders (224 men and 46 women) who were completing inpatient treatment for substance use disorders. Hierarchical linear regression was conducted to examine changes in participants' abstinence self-efficacy in relation to factors directly related (HIV-risk drug use behaviors, substance use, 12-step meeting attendance) and indirectly related (HIV-risk sexual behaviors, incarceration histories) to substance use. HIV-risk sexual behaviors and substance use predicted significant decreases in abstinence self-efficacy whereas 12-step meeting attendance predicted significant increases. However, incarceration histories and HIV-risk drug use behaviors were not significant predictors of abstinence self-efficacy. Findings suggest HIV-risk sexual behavior should be considered when assessing relapse prevention for persons with substance use disorders, and that researchers should examine behaviors that are not directly related to substance use when investigating recovery resources.

Meta-Prediction of the Effect of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Air Pollution on Alzheimer's Disease Risk.

PubMed

Wu, Suh-Mian; Chen, Zhao-Feng; Young, Lufei; Shiao, S Pamela K

2017-01-11

Background : Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a significant public health issue. AD has been linked with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase ( MTHFR ) C677T polymorphism, but the findings have been inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-predictive analysis is to examine the associations between MTHFR polymorphisms and epigenetic factors, including air pollution, with AD risk using big data analytics approaches. Methods and Results : Forty-three studies (44 groups) were identified by searching various databases. MTHFR C677T TT and CT genotypes had significant associations with AD risk in all racial populations (RR = 1.13, p = 0.0047; and RR = 1.12, p < 0.0001 respectively). Meta-predictive analysis showed significant increases of percentages of MTHFR C677T polymorphism with increased air pollution levels in both AD case group and control group ( p = 0.0021-0.0457); with higher percentages of TT and CT genotypes in the AD case group than that in the control group with increased air pollution levels. Conclusions : The impact of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on susceptibility to AD was modified by level of air pollution. Future studies are needed to further examine the effects of gene-environment interactions including air pollution on AD risk for world populations.

Meta-Prediction of the Effect of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Polymorphisms and Air Pollution on Alzheimer’s Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Wu, Suh-Mian; Chen, Zhao-Feng; Young, Lufei; Shiao, S. Pamela K.

2017-01-01

Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a significant public health issue. AD has been linked with methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism, but the findings have been inconsistent. The purpose of this meta-predictive analysis is to examine the associations between MTHFR polymorphisms and epigenetic factors, including air pollution, with AD risk using big data analytics approaches. Methods and Results: Forty-three studies (44 groups) were identified by searching various databases. MTHFR C677T TT and CT genotypes had significant associations with AD risk in all racial populations (RR = 1.13, p = 0.0047; and RR = 1.12, p < 0.0001 respectively). Meta-predictive analysis showed significant increases of percentages of MTHFR C677T polymorphism with increased air pollution levels in both AD case group and control group (p = 0.0021–0.0457); with higher percentages of TT and CT genotypes in the AD case group than that in the control group with increased air pollution levels. Conclusions: The impact of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on susceptibility to AD was modified by level of air pollution. Future studies are needed to further examine the effects of gene-environment interactions including air pollution on AD risk for world populations. PMID:28085050

Self-Determination and Meaningful Work: Exploring Socioeconomic Constraints

PubMed Central

Allan, Blake A.

2016-01-01

This study examined a model of meaningful work among a diverse sample of working adults. From the perspectives of Self-Determination Theory and the Psychology of Working Framework, we tested a structural model with social class and work volition predicting SDT motivation variables, which in turn predicted meaningful work. Partially supporting hypotheses, work volition was positively related to internal regulation and negatively related to amotivation, whereas social class was positively related to external regulation and amotivation. In turn, internal regulation was positively related to meaningful work, whereas external regulation and amotivation were negatively related to meaningful work. Indirect effects from work volition to meaningful work via internal regulation and amotivation were significant, and indirect effects from social class to meaningful work via external regulation and amotivation were significant. This study highlights the important relations between SDT motivation variables and meaningful work, especially the large positive relation between internal regulation and meaningful work. However, results also reveal that work volition and social class may play critical roles in predicting internal regulation, external regulation, and amotivation. PMID:26869970

A numerical study of wave-current interaction through surface and bottom stresses: Coastal ocean response to Hurricane Fran of 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Wu, K.

2003-02-01

A three-dimensional wave-current coupled modeling system is used to examine the influence of waves on coastal currents and sea level. This coupled modeling system consists of the wave model-WAM (Cycle 4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The results from this study show that it is important to incorporate surface wave effects into coastal storm surge and circulation models. Specifically, we find that (1) storm surge models without coupled surface waves generally under estimate not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment, (2) introducing wave-induced surface stress effect into storm surge models can significantly improve storm surge prediction, (3) incorporating wave-induced bottom stress into the coupled wave-current model further improves storm surge prediction, and (4) calibration of the wave module according to minimum error in significant wave height does not necessarily result in an optimum wave module in a wave-current coupled system for current and storm surge prediction.

Oxygen Mass Transport in Stented Coronary Arteries.

PubMed

Murphy, Eoin A; Dunne, Adrian S; Martin, David M; Boyle, Fergal J

2016-02-01

Oxygen deficiency, known as hypoxia, in arterial walls has been linked to increased intimal hyperplasia, which is the main adverse biological process causing in-stent restenosis. Stent implantation has significant effects on the oxygen transport into the arterial wall. Elucidating these effects is critical to optimizing future stent designs. In this study the most advanced oxygen transport model developed to date was assessed in two test cases and used to compare three coronary stent designs. Additionally, the predicted results from four simplified blood oxygen transport models are compared in the two test cases. The advanced model showed good agreement with experimental measurements within the mass-transfer boundary layer and at the luminal surface; however, more work is needed in predicting the oxygen transport within the arterial wall. Simplifying the oxygen transport model within the blood flow produces significant errors in predicting the oxygen transport in arteries. This study can be used as a guide for all future numerical studies in this area and the advanced model could provide a powerful tool in aiding design of stents and other cardiovascular devices.

Number of Psychosocial Strengths Predicts Reduced HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors Above and Beyond Syndemic Problems Among Gay and Bisexual Men.

PubMed

Hart, Trevor A; Noor, Syed W; Adam, Barry D; Vernon, Julia R G; Brennan, David J; Gardner, Sandra; Husbands, Winston; Myers, Ted

2017-10-01

Syndemics research shows the additive effect of psychosocial problems on high-risk sexual behavior among gay and bisexual men (GBM). Psychosocial strengths may predict less engagement in high-risk sexual behavior. In a study of 470 ethnically diverse HIV-negative GBM, regression models were computed using number of syndemic psychosocial problems, number of psychosocial strengths, and serodiscordant condomless anal sex (CAS). The number of syndemic psychosocial problems correlated with serodiscordant CAS (RR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.92; p = 0.001). When adding the number of psychosocial strengths to the model, the effect of syndemic psychosocial problems became non-significant, but the number of strengths-based factors remained significant (RR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.86; p = 0.002). Psychosocial strengths may operate additively in the same way as syndemic psychosocial problems, but in the opposite direction. Consistent with theories of resilience, psychosocial strengths may be an important set of variables predicting sexual risk behavior that is largely missing from the current HIV behavioral literature.

Fermentation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae - Combining kinetic modeling and optimization techniques points out avenues to effective process design.

PubMed

Scheiblauer, Johannes; Scheiner, Stefan; Joksch, Martin; Kavsek, Barbara

2018-09-14

A combined experimental/theoretical approach is presented, for improving the predictability of Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentations. In particular, a mathematical model was developed explicitly taking into account the main mechanisms of the fermentation process, allowing for continuous computation of key process variables, including the biomass concentration and the respiratory quotient (RQ). For model calibration and experimental validation, batch and fed-batch fermentations were carried out. Comparison of the model-predicted biomass concentrations and RQ developments with the corresponding experimentally recorded values shows a remarkably good agreement for both batch and fed-batch processes, confirming the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, sensitivity studies were performed, in order to identify model parameters whose variations have significant effects on the model predictions: our model responds with significant sensitivity to the variations of only six parameters. These studies provide a valuable basis for model reduction, as also demonstrated in this paper. Finally, optimization-based parametric studies demonstrate how our model can be utilized for improving the efficiency of Saccharomyces cerevisiae fermentations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of congruence in patient and therapist alliance on patient's symptomatic levels.

PubMed

Zilcha-Mano, Sigal; Snyder, John; Silberschatz, George

2017-05-01

The ability of alliance to predict outcome has been widely demonstrated, but less is known about the effect of the level of congruence between patient and therapist alliance ratings on outcome. In the current study we examined whether the degree of congruence between patient and therapist alliance ratings can predict symptomatic levels 1 month later in treatment. The sample consisted of 127 patient-therapist dyads. Patients and therapists reported on their alliance levels, and patients reported their symptomatic levels 1 month later. Polynomial regression and response surface analysis were used to examine congruence. Findings suggest that when the congruence level of patient and therapist alliance ratings was not taken into account, only the therapist's alliance served as a significant predictor of symptomatic levels. But when the degree of congruence between patient and therapist alliance ratings was considered, the degree of congruence was a significant predictor of symptomatic levels 1 month later in treatment. Findings support the importance of the level of congruence between patient and therapist alliance ratings in predicting patient's symptomatic levels.

Processes in the development of mathematics in kindergarten children from Title 1 schools.

PubMed

Foster, Matthew E; Anthony, Jason L; Clements, Doug H; Sarama, Julie H

2015-12-01

This study examined how well nonverbal IQ (or fluid intelligence), vocabulary, phonological awareness (PA), rapid autonomized naming (RAN), and phonological short-term memory (STM) predicted mathematics outcomes. The 208 participating kindergartners were administered tests of fluid intelligence, vocabulary, PA, RAN, STM, and numeracy in the fall of kindergarten, whereas tests of numeracy and applied problems were administered in the spring of kindergarten. Fall numeracy scores accounted for substantial variation in spring outcomes (R(2) values = .49 and .32 for numeracy and applied problems, respectively), which underscores the importance of preschool math instruction and screening for mathematics learning difficulties on entry into kindergarten. Fluid intelligence and PA significantly predicted unique variation in spring numeracy scores (ΔR(2) = .05) after controlling for autoregressive effects and classroom nesting. Fluid intelligence, PA, and STM significantly predicted unique variation in spring applied problems scores (ΔR(2) = .14) after controlling for autoregressive effects and classroom nesting. Although the contributions of fluid intelligence, PA, and STM toward math outcomes were reliable and arguably important, they were small. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of remote sensing to the development and formulation of hydrologic planning models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.; Fowler, T. R.; Frech, S. L.

1975-01-01

Regional hydrologic planning models built upon remote sensing capabilities and suited for ungaged watersheds are developed. The effectiveness of such models is determined along with which parameters impact most the minimization of errors associated with the prediction of peak flow events (floods). Emphasis is placed on peak flood prediction because of its significance to users for the purpose of planning, sizing, and designing waterworks.

Predicting and influencing voice therapy adherence using social-cognitive factors and mobile video.

PubMed

van Leer, Eva; Connor, Nadine P

2015-05-01

Patient adherence to voice therapy is an established challenge. The purpose of this study was (a) to examine whether adherence to treatment could be predicted from three social-cognitive factors measured at treatment onset: self-efficacy, goal commitment, and the therapeutic alliance, and (b) to test whether the provision of clinician, self-, and peer model mobile treatment videos on MP4 players would influence the same triad of social cognitive factors and the adherence behavior of patients. Forty adults with adducted hyperfunction with and without benign lesions were prospectively randomized to either 4 sessions of voice therapy enhanced by MP4 support or without MP4 support. Adherence between sessions was assessed through self-report. Social cognitive factors and voice outcomes were assessed at the beginning and end of therapy. Utility of MP4 support was assessed via interviews. Self-efficacy and the therapeutic alliance predicted a significant amount of adherence variance. MP4 support significantly increased generalization, self-efficacy for generalization, and the therapeutic alliance. An interaction effect demonstrated that MP4 support was particularly effective for patients who started therapy with poor self-efficacy for generalization. Adherence may be predicted and influenced via social-cognitive means. Mobile technology can extend therapy to extraclinical settings.

The effects of private self-consciousness and perspective taking on satisfaction in close relationships.

PubMed

Franzoi, S L; Davis, M H; Young, R D

1985-06-01

We extended the scope of recent studies in which self-awareness and perspective taking have been used as predictors of social competence or adjustment: We analyzed their influence on the satisfaction experienced in monogamous, heterosexual relationships. Members of 131 couples answered questions concerning themselves and their relationships. We predicted that individual differences in private self-consciousness would be positively related to relationship satisfaction because of the greater self-disclosure resulting from that heightened self-attention. Second, we predicted that individual differences in perspective taking would foster relationship satisfaction, independent of any influence of self-disclosure. Both expectations were confirmed. Scores on the private self-consciousness scale were predictive of reported self-disclosure, and self-disclosure was predictive of satisfaction in the relationship. Furthermore, once the influence of self-disclosure was removed, no effect of self-consciousness on satisfaction remained. In contrast, after disclosure was controlled, perspective-taking scores were significantly related to satisfaction and were in fact unrelated to disclosure at all. These findings indicate that two personality characteristics having to do with habitual attention to behavioral tendencies, to emotions, and to motivations significantly enhance the quality of close heterosexual relationships in different ways. Results are discussed in terms of current theory in the related fields.

Suppression of Striatal Prediction Errors by the Prefrontal Cortex in Placebo Hypoalgesia.

PubMed

Schenk, Lieven A; Sprenger, Christian; Onat, Selim; Colloca, Luana; Büchel, Christian

2017-10-04

Classical learning theories predict extinction after the discontinuation of reinforcement through prediction errors. However, placebo hypoalgesia, although mediated by associative learning, has been shown to be resistant to extinction. We tested the hypothesis that this is mediated by the suppression of prediction error processing through the prefrontal cortex (PFC). We compared pain modulation through treatment cues (placebo hypoalgesia, treatment context) with pain modulation through stimulus intensity cues (stimulus context) during functional magnetic resonance imaging in 48 male and female healthy volunteers. During acquisition, our data show that expectations are correctly learned and that this is associated with prediction error signals in the ventral striatum (VS) in both contexts. However, in the nonreinforced test phase, pain modulation and expectations of pain relief persisted to a larger degree in the treatment context, indicating that the expectations were not correctly updated in the treatment context. Consistently, we observed significantly stronger neural prediction error signals in the VS in the stimulus context compared with the treatment context. A connectivity analysis revealed negative coupling between the anterior PFC and the VS in the treatment context, suggesting that the PFC can suppress the expression of prediction errors in the VS. Consistent with this, a participant's conceptual views and beliefs about treatments influenced the pain modulation only in the treatment context. Our results indicate that in placebo hypoalgesia contextual treatment information engages prefrontal conceptual processes, which can suppress prediction error processing in the VS and lead to reduced updating of treatment expectancies, resulting in less extinction of placebo hypoalgesia. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT In aversive and appetitive reinforcement learning, learned effects show extinction when reinforcement is discontinued. This is thought to be mediated by prediction errors (i.e., the difference between expectations and outcome). Although reinforcement learning has been central in explaining placebo hypoalgesia, placebo hypoalgesic effects show little extinction and persist after the discontinuation of reinforcement. Our results support the idea that conceptual treatment beliefs bias the neural processing of expectations in a treatment context compared with a more stimulus-driven processing of expectations with stimulus intensity cues. We provide evidence that this is associated with the suppression of prediction error processing in the ventral striatum by the prefrontal cortex. This provides a neural basis for persisting effects in reinforcement learning and placebo hypoalgesia. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/379715-09$15.00/0.

Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

Predictive genetic testing for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer: psychological distress and illness representations 1 year following disclosure.

PubMed

Claes, E; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Denayer, L; Decruyenaere, M; Boogaerts, A; Philippe, K; Legius, E

2005-10-01

This prospective study evaluates emotional functioning and illness representations in 68 unaffected women (34 carriers/34 noncarriers) 1 year after predictive testing for BRCA1/2 mutations when offered within a multidisciplinary approach. Carriers had higher subjective risk perception of breast cancer than noncarriers. Carriers who did not have prophylactic oophorectomy had the highest risk perception of ovarian cancer. No differences were found between carriers and noncarriers regarding perceived seriousness and perceived control of breast and ovarian cancer. Mean levels of distress were within normal ranges. Only few women showed an overall pattern of clinically elevated distress. Cancer-specific distress and state-anxiety significantly decreased in noncarriers from pre- to posttest while general distress remained about the same. There were no significant changes in distress in the group of carriers except for ovarian cancer distress which significantly decreased from pre- to posttest. Our study did not reveal adverse effects of predictive testing when offered in the context of a multidisciplinary approach.

Demographics as predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Huang, Xieyining; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Musacchio, Katherine M.; Franklin, Joseph C.

2017-01-01

Background Certain demographic factors have long been cited to confer risk or protection for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. However, many studies have found weak or non-significant effects. Determining the effect strength and clinical utility of demographics as predictors is crucial for suicide risk assessment and theory development. As such, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effect strength and clinical utility of demographics as predictors. Methods We searched PsycInfo, PubMed, and GoogleScholar for studies published before January 1st, 2015. Inclusion criteria required that studies use at least one demographic factor to longitudinally predict suicide ideation, attempt, or death. The initial search yielded 2,541 studies, 159 of which were eligible. A total of 752 unique statistical tests were included in analysis. Results Suicide death was the most commonly studied outcome, followed by attempt and ideation. The average follow-up length was 9.4 years. The overall effects of demographic factors studied in the field as risk factors were significant but weak, and that of demographic factors studied as protective factors were non-significant. Adjusting for publication bias further reduced effect estimates. No specific demographic factors appeared to be strong predictors. The effects were consistent across multiple moderators. Conclusions At least within the narrow methodological constraints of the existing literature, demographic factors were statistically significant risk factors, but not protective factors. Even as risk factors, demographics offer very little improvement in predictive accuracy. Future studies that go beyond the limitations of the existing literature are needed to further understand the effects of demographics. PMID:28700728

A hybrid predictive model for acoustic noise in urban areas based on time series analysis and artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Tepedino, Carmine

2017-06-01

The dangerous effect of noise on human health is well known. Both the auditory and non-auditory effects are largely documented in literature, and represent an important hazard in human activities. Particular care is devoted to road traffic noise, since it is growing according to the growth of residential, industrial and commercial areas. For these reasons, it is important to develop effective models able to predict the noise in a certain area. In this paper, a hybrid predictive model is presented. The model is based on the mixing of two different approach: the Time Series Analysis (TSA) and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The TSA model is based on the evaluation of trend and seasonality in the data, while the ANN model is based on the capacity of the network to "learn" the behavior of the data. The mixed approach will consist in the evaluation of noise levels by means of TSA and, once the differences (residuals) between TSA estimations and observed data have been calculated, in the training of a ANN on the residuals. This hybrid model will exploit interesting features and results, with a significant variation related to the number of steps forward in the prediction. It will be shown that the best results, in terms of prediction, are achieved predicting one step ahead in the future. Anyway, a 7 days prediction can be performed, with a slightly greater error, but offering a larger range of prediction, with respect to the single day ahead predictive model.

Prediction/discussion-based learning cycle versus conceptual change text: comparative effects on students' understanding of genetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

khawaldeh, Salem A. Al

2013-07-01

Background and purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the comparative effects of a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle (HPD-LC), conceptual change text (CCT) and traditional instruction on 10th grade students' understanding of genetics concepts. Sample: Participants were 112 10th basic grade male students in three classes of the same school located in an urban area. The three classes taught by the same biology teacher were randomly assigned as a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle class (n = 39), conceptual change text class (n = 37) and traditional class (n = 36). Design and method: A quasi-experimental research design of pre-test-post-test non-equivalent control group was adopted. Participants completed the Genetics Concept Test as pre-test-post-test, to examine the effects of instructional strategies on their genetics understanding. Pre-test scores and Test of Logical Thinking scores were used as covariates. Results: The analysis of covariance showed a statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups in the favor of experimental groups after treatment. However, no statistically significant difference between the experimental groups (HPD-LC versus CCT instruction) was found. Conclusions: Overall, the findings of this study support the use of the prediction/discussion-based learning cycle and conceptual change text in both research and teaching. The findings may be useful for improving classroom practices in teaching science concepts and for the development of suitable materials promoting students' understanding of science.

Bayesian prediction of placebo analgesia in an instrumental learning model

PubMed Central

Jung, Won-Mo; Lee, Ye-Seul; Wallraven, Christian; Chae, Younbyoung

2017-01-01

Placebo analgesia can be primarily explained by the Pavlovian conditioning paradigm in which a passively applied cue becomes associated with less pain. In contrast, instrumental conditioning employs an active paradigm that might be more similar to clinical settings. In the present study, an instrumental conditioning paradigm involving a modified trust game in a simulated clinical situation was used to induce placebo analgesia. Additionally, Bayesian modeling was applied to predict the placebo responses of individuals based on their choices. Twenty-four participants engaged in a medical trust game in which decisions to receive treatment from either a doctor (more effective with high cost) or a pharmacy (less effective with low cost) were made after receiving a reference pain stimulus. In the conditioning session, the participants received lower levels of pain following both choices, while high pain stimuli were administered in the test session even after making the decision. The choice-dependent pain in the conditioning session was modulated in terms of both intensity and uncertainty. Participants reported significantly less pain when they chose the doctor or the pharmacy for treatment compared to the control trials. The predicted pain ratings based on Bayesian modeling showed significant correlations with the actual reports from participants for both of the choice categories. The instrumental conditioning paradigm allowed for the active choice of optional cues and was able to induce the placebo analgesia effect. Additionally, Bayesian modeling successfully predicted pain ratings in a simulated clinical situation that fits well with placebo analgesia induced by instrumental conditioning. PMID:28225816

Comparative Evaluation of Arabin Pessary and Cervical Cerclage for the Prevention of Preterm Labor in Asymptomatic Women with High Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Tsikouras, Panagiotis; Anastasopoulos, George; Maroulis, Vasileios; Bothou, Anastasia; Chalkidou, Anna; Deuteraiou, Dorelia; Anthoulaki, Xanthoula; Bourazan, Arzou Halil; Iatrakis, George; Zervoudis, Stefanos; Galazios, Georgios; Inagamova, Lola-Katerina; Csorba, Roland; Teichmann, Alexander-Tobias

2018-01-01

Objective: Preterm labor is one of the most significant obstetric problems associated with high rate of actual and long-term perinatal complications. Despite the creation of scoring systems, uterine activity monitoring, cervical ultrasound and several biochemical markers, the prediction and prevention of preterm labor is still a matter of concern. The aim of this study was to examine cervical findings for the prediction and the comparative use of Arabin pessary or cerclage for the prevention of preterm birth in asymptomatic women with high risk factors for preterm labor. Material and methods: The study group was composed of singleton pregnancies (spontaneously conceived) with high risk factors for preterm labor. Cervical length, dilatation of the internal cervical os and funneling, were estimated with transvaginal ultrasound during the first and the second trimesters of pregnancy. Results: Cervical funneling, during the second trimester of pregnancy, was the most significant factor for the prediction of preterm labor. The use of Arabin cervical pessary was found to be more effective than cerclage in the prolongation of pregnancy. Conclusion: In women at risk for preterm labor, the detection of cervical funneling in the second trimester of pregnancy may help to predict preterm labor and to apply the appropriate treatment for its prevention. Although the use of cervical pessary was found to be more effective than cerclage, more studies are needed to classify the effectiveness of different methods for such prevention. PMID:29670041

A Longitudinal Study of Fathers' and Young Children's Depressive Symptoms.

PubMed

Tichovolsky, Marianne H; Griffith, Shayl F; Rolon-Arroyo, Benjamin; Arnold, David H; Harvey, Elizabeth A

2016-09-21

Considerable research has examined the effects of maternal depression on children, but few studies have focused on the relation between paternal and child depressive symptoms, particularly during early childhood. Even fewer studies have been longitudinal, leaving open questions about how paternal and child depression covary over time. The present study sought to address this gap by examining the relation between fathers' and children's depressive symptoms over a 3-year period. Participants were 153 preschool children with behavior problems and their parents. Three longitudinal analytic approaches were used to examine how father and child depression change together and predict one another over time. Additional analyses examined whether externalizing problems or maternal depression might account for the associations between fathers' and children's depressive symptoms. Changes in paternal depression significantly predicted changes in father-reported and mother-reported child depressive symptoms. These effects were evident both in year-to-year fluctuations and in linear trajectories across the 3-year period. Cross-lagged analyses suggested that these relations may have been driven by father-effects; paternal depression at one time point predicted child depression at the next time point, but child depression did not significantly predict later paternal depression. We found little evidence that externalizing problems or maternal depression accounted for the relations between fathers' and children's depressive symptoms. Results provide convergent evidence that fathers' depression may play an important role in the development of depressive symptoms in young children and underscore the importance of including fathers in studies of depression in families.

Modeling the motion and orientation of various pharmaceutical tablet shapes in a film coating pan using DEM.

PubMed

Ketterhagen, William R

2011-05-16

Film coating uniformity is an important quality attribute of pharmaceutical tablets. Large variability in coating thickness can limit process efficiency or cause significant variation in the amount or delivery rate of the active pharmaceutical ingredient to the patient. In this work, the discrete element method (DEM) is used to computationally model the motion and orientation of several novel pharmaceutical tablet shapes in a film coating pan in order to predict coating uniformity. The model predictions are first confirmed with experimental data obtained from an equivalent film coating pan using a machine vision system. The model is then applied to predict coating uniformity for various tablet shapes, pan speeds, and pan loadings. The relative effects of these parameters on both inter- and intra-tablet film coating uniformity are assessed. The DEM results show intra-tablet coating uniformity is strongly influenced by tablet shape, and the extent of this can be predicted by a measure of the tablet shape. The tablet shape is shown to have little effect on the mixing of tablets, and thus, the inter-tablet coating uniformity. The pan rotation speed and pan loading are shown to have a small effect on intra-tablet coating uniformity but a more significant impact on inter-tablet uniformity. These results demonstrate the usefulness of modeling in guiding drug product development decisions such as selection of tablet shape and process operating conditions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Peer influences on the dating aggression process among Brazilian street youth: A brief report

PubMed Central

Antônio, Tiago; Koller, Silvia H.; Hokoda, Audrey

2011-01-01

This study explored risk factors for adolescent dating aggression (ADA) among Brazilian street youth. Forty-three adolescents, between the ages of 13-17 years, were recruited at services centers in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Simultaneous multiple regression revealed that ADA was significantly predicted by adolescent dating victimization, and that this relationship was moderated by peer involvement in dating aggression. Results also revealed that peer involvement in dating aggression did not significantly predict ADA. These findings suggested that having peers who are involved in dating aggression exacerbates the effects of dating victimization on ADA among Brazilian street youth. However, adolescent dating victimization might be a stronger risk factor for dating aggression in this population, because when controlling for the effects of victimization in dating conflicts peer abuse towards romantic partners did not uniquely contribute to ADA. PMID:22203638

Body map of regional vs. whole body sweating rate and sweat electrolyte concentrations in men and women during moderate exercise-heat stress.

PubMed

Baker, Lindsay B; Ungaro, Corey T; Sopeña, Bridget C; Nuccio, Ryan P; Reimel, Adam J; Carter, James M; Stofan, John R; Barnes, Kelly A

2018-05-01

This study determined the relations between regional (REG) and whole body (WB) sweating rate (RSR and WBSR, respectively) as well as REG and WB sweat Na + concentration ([Na + ]) during exercise. Twenty-six recreational athletes (17 men, 9 women) cycled for 90 min while WB sweat [Na + ] was measured using the washdown technique. RSR and REG sweat [Na + ] were measured from nine regions using absorbent patches. RSR and REG sweat [Na + ] from all regions were significantly ( P < 0.05) correlated with WBSR ( r = 0.58-0.83) and WB sweat [Na + ] ( r = 0.74-0.88), respectively. However, the slope and y-intercept of the regression lines for most models were significantly different than 1 and 0, respectively. The coefficients of determination ( r 2 ) were 0.44-0.69 for RSR predicting WBSR [best predictors: dorsal forearm ( r 2  = 0.62) and triceps ( r 2  = 0.69)] and 0.55-0.77 for REG predicting WB sweat [Na + ] [best predictors: ventral forearm ( r 2  = 0.73) and thigh ( r 2  = 0.77)]. There was a significant ( P < 0.05) effect of day-to-day variability on the regression model predicting WBSR from RSR at most regions but no effect on predictions of WB sweat [Na + ] from REG. Results suggest that REG cannot be used as a direct surrogate for WB sweating responses. Nonetheless, the use of regression equations to predict WB sweat [Na + ] from REG can provide an estimation of WB sweat [Na + ] with an acceptable level of accuracy, especially using the forearm or thigh. However, the best practice for measuring WBSR remains conventional WB mass balance calculations since prediction of WBSR from RSR using absorbent patches does not meet the accuracy or reliability required to inform fluid intake recommendations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This study developed a body map of regional sweating rate and regional (REG) sweat electrolyte concentrations and determined the effect of within-subject (bilateral and day-to-day) and between-subject (sex) factors on the relations between REG and the whole body (WB). Regression equations can be used to predict WB sweat Na + concentration from REG, especially using the forearm or thigh. However, prediction of WB sweating rate from REG sweating rate using absorbent patches does not reach the accuracy or reliability required to inform fluid intake recommendations.

Epipolis-laser in situ keratomileusis versus photorefractive keratectomy for the correction of myopia: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Wenjing; Wang, Yan; Xu, Lulu

2015-10-01

It is unclear whether epipolis-laser in situ keratomileusis (Epi-LASIK) has any significant advantage over photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) for correcting myopia. We undertook this meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and cohort studies to examine possible differences in efficacy, predictability, and side effects between Epi-LASIK and PRK for correcting myopia. A system literature review was conducted in the PubMed, Cochrane Library EMBASE. The statistical analysis was performed by RevMan 5.0 software. The results included efficacy outcomes (percentage of eyes with 20/20 uncorrected visual acuity post-treatment), predictability (proportion of eyes within ±0.5 D of the target refraction), epithelial healing time, and the incidence of significant haze and pain scores after surgery. There are seven articles with total 987 eyes suitable for the meta-analysis. There is no statistical significance in the predictability between Epi-LASIK and PRK, the risk ratio (RR) is 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.92, 1.16], p = 0.18; with respect to efficacy, the odds ratio is 1.43, 95% CI = [0.85, 2.40], p = 0.56 between Epi-LASIK and PRK, there is no statistical significance either. The epithelial cell layer healing time and the pain scores and the incidence of significant haze showed no significance between these two techniques although more pains can be found in Epi-LASIK than PRK at the early-stage post-operation. According to the above analysis, Epi-LASIK has good efficacy and predictability as PRK. In addition, both techniques have low pain scores and low incidence of significant haze.

Attosecond pulse carrier-envelope phase effects on ionized electron momentum and energy distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peng, L.-Y.; Starace, Anthony F.

2007-10-15

We analyze carrier-envelope phase (CEP) effects on electron wave-packet momentum and energy spectra produced by one or two few-cycle attosecond xuv pulses. The few-cycle attosecond pulses are assumed to have arbitrary phases. We predict CEP effects on ionized electron wave-packet momentum distributions produced by attosecond pulses having durations comparable to those obtained by Sansone et al. [Science 314, 443 (2006)]. The onset of significant CEP effects is predicted to occur for attosecond pulse field strengths close to those possible with current experimental capabilities. Our results are based on single-active-electron solutions of the three-dimensional, time-dependent Schroedinger equation including atomic potentials appropriatemore » for the H and He atoms.« less

Effect of Adding McKenzie Syndrome, Centralization, Directional Preference, and Psychosocial Classification Variables to a Risk-Adjusted Model Predicting Functional Status Outcomes for Patients With Lumbar Impairments.

PubMed

Werneke, Mark W; Edmond, Susan; Deutscher, Daniel; Ward, Jason; Grigsby, David; Young, Michelle; McGill, Troy; McClenahan, Brian; Weinberg, Jon; Davidow, Amy L

2016-09-01

Study Design Retrospective cohort. Background Patient-classification subgroupings may be important prognostic factors explaining outcomes. Objectives To determine effects of adding classification variables (McKenzie syndrome and pain patterns, including centralization and directional preference; Symptom Checklist Back Pain Prediction Model [SCL BPPM]; and the Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire subscales of work and physical activity) to a baseline risk-adjusted model predicting functional status (FS) outcomes. Methods Consecutive patients completed a battery of questionnaires that gathered information on 11 risk-adjustment variables. Physical therapists trained in Mechanical Diagnosis and Therapy methods classified each patient by McKenzie syndromes and pain pattern. Functional status was assessed at discharge by patient-reported outcomes. Only patients with complete data were included. Risk of selection bias was assessed. Prediction of discharge FS was assessed using linear stepwise regression models, allowing 13 variables to enter the model. Significant variables were retained in subsequent models. Model power (R(2)) and beta coefficients for model variables were estimated. Results Two thousand sixty-six patients with lumbar impairments were evaluated. Of those, 994 (48%), 10 (<1%), and 601 (29%) were excluded due to incomplete psychosocial data, McKenzie classification data, and missing FS at discharge, respectively. The final sample for analyses was 723 (35%). Overall R(2) for the baseline prediction FS model was 0.40. Adding classification variables to the baseline model did not result in significant increases in R(2). McKenzie syndrome or pain pattern explained 2.8% and 3.0% of the variance, respectively. When pain pattern and SCL BPPM were added simultaneously, overall model R(2) increased to 0.44. Although none of these increases in R(2) were significant, some classification variables were stronger predictors compared with some other variables included in the baseline model. Conclusion The small added prognostic capabilities identified when combining McKenzie or pain-pattern classifications with the SCL BPPM classification did not significantly improve prediction of FS outcomes in this study. Additional research is warranted to investigate the importance of classification variables compared with those used in the baseline model to maximize predictive power. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2016;46(9):726-741. Epub 31 Jul 2016. doi:10.2519/jospt.2016.6266.

The effects of name and religious priming on ratings of a well-known political figure, President Barack Obama.

PubMed

Williams, Gary A; Guichard, AnaMarie C; An, JungHa

2017-01-01

Priming with race-typed names and religious concepts have been shown to activate stereotypes and increase prejudice towards out-groups. We examined the effects of name and religious word priming on views of a specific and well-known person, President Barack Obama. We predicted that politically conservative participants primed with President Obama's middle name (Hussein) would rate him more negatively and be more likely to view him as a Muslim than those not shown his middle name. We also examined whether conservatives primed with concrete religious words would rate President Obama more negatively and be more likely to view him as Muslim than those primed with other word types. Furthermore, we predicted that those who mis-identify President Obama as Muslim would rate him more negatively than would those who view him as Christian. The results provided mixed support for these hypotheses. Conservatives primed with President Obama's middle name rated him significantly more negatively than did those in the control condition. This effect was not found for politically liberal or moderate participants. Name priming did not significantly affect views of President Obama's religious affiliation. Although not statistically significant, conservatives primed with abstract religious words tended to rate President Obama more negatively than did those primed with other word types. Religious word priming significantly influenced views of President Obama's religious affiliation; interestingly, participants primed with abstract religious words were more likely to think President Obama is Muslim than were those primed with religious agent or non-religious words. As predicted, participants who thought president Obama was Muslim rated him significantly more negatively than did those who thought he was Christian. Overall, our results provide some evidence that ethnic name and religious word priming can significantly influence opinions, even with a well-known and specific person.

The effects of name and religious priming on ratings of a well-known political figure, President Barack Obama

PubMed Central

Guichard, AnaMarie C.; An, JungHa

2017-01-01

Priming with race-typed names and religious concepts have been shown to activate stereotypes and increase prejudice towards out-groups. We examined the effects of name and religious word priming on views of a specific and well-known person, President Barack Obama. We predicted that politically conservative participants primed with President Obama’s middle name (Hussein) would rate him more negatively and be more likely to view him as a Muslim than those not shown his middle name. We also examined whether conservatives primed with concrete religious words would rate President Obama more negatively and be more likely to view him as Muslim than those primed with other word types. Furthermore, we predicted that those who mis-identify President Obama as Muslim would rate him more negatively than would those who view him as Christian. The results provided mixed support for these hypotheses. Conservatives primed with President Obama’s middle name rated him significantly more negatively than did those in the control condition. This effect was not found for politically liberal or moderate participants. Name priming did not significantly affect views of President Obama’s religious affiliation. Although not statistically significant, conservatives primed with abstract religious words tended to rate President Obama more negatively than did those primed with other word types. Religious word priming significantly influenced views of President Obama’s religious affiliation; interestingly, participants primed with abstract religious words were more likely to think President Obama is Muslim than were those primed with religious agent or non-religious words. As predicted, participants who thought president Obama was Muslim rated him significantly more negatively than did those who thought he was Christian. Overall, our results provide some evidence that ethnic name and religious word priming can significantly influence opinions, even with a well-known and specific person. PMID:28665980

The Prediction of Nozzle Performance and Heat Transfer in Hydrogen/Oxygen Rocket Engines with Transpiration Cooling, Film Cooling, and High Area Ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kacynski, Kenneth J.; Hoffman, Joe D.

1994-01-01

An advanced engineering computational model has been developed to aid in the analysis of chemical rocket engines. The complete multispecies, chemically reacting and diffusing Navier-Stokes equations are modelled, including the Soret thermal diffusion and Dufour energy transfer terms. Demonstration cases are presented for a 1030:1 area ratio nozzle, a 25 lbf film-cooled nozzle, and a transpiration-cooled plug-and-spool rocket engine. The results indicate that the thrust coefficient predictions of the 1030:1 nozzle and the film-cooled nozzle are within 0.2 to 0.5 percent, respectively, of experimental measurements. Further, the model's predictions agree very well with the heat transfer measurements made in all of the nozzle test cases. It is demonstrated that thermal diffusion has a significant effect on the predicted mass fraction of hydrogen along the wall of the nozzle and was shown to represent a significant fraction of the diffusion fluxes occurring in the transpiration-cooled rocket engine.

Using single leg standing time to predict the fall risk in elderly.

PubMed

Chang, Chun-Ju; Chang, Yu-Shin; Yang, Sai-Wei

2013-01-01

In clinical evaluation, we used to evaluate the fall risk according to elderly falling experience or the balance assessment tool. Because of the tool limitation, sometimes we could not predict accurately. In this study, we first analyzed 15 healthy elderly (without falling experience) and 15 falling elderly (1~3 time falling experience) balance performance in previous research. After 1 year follow up, there was only 1 elderly fall down during this period. It seemed like that falling experience had a ceiling effect on the falling prediction. But we also found out that using single leg standing time could be more accurately to help predicting the fall risk, especially for the falling elderly who could not stand over 10 seconds by single leg, and with a significant correlation between the falling experience and single leg standing time (r = -0.474, p = 0.026). The results also showed that there was significant body sway just before they falling down, and the COP may be an important characteristic in the falling elderly group.

Mixed Frames and Risky Decision-Making.

PubMed

Peng, Jiaxi; Zhang, Jiaxi; Sun, Hao; Zeng, Zhicong; Mai, Yuexia; Miao, Danmin

2017-01-01

By applying unitive vocabulary, "die" or "save," to respective frames of the Asian disease problem, Tversky and Kahneman were able to define framing effect. In this study, we preliminarily explored the effect of mixed frames, which are characterized by the use of different vocabulary in one frame. In study 1, we found that only the sure option description had significant effect on decision-making, while the effects of risky option descriptions were not significant, nor were interactions between descriptions. In study 2, the results suggested that after controlling the effects of the hedonic tone of the sure options, risky option description did not significantly predict decision-making. In study 3, we found that neither the sure-to-risky option presentation order nor presentation order within risky options had significant effect on decision-making. We thus concluded that sure option description can serve as the decision-making foundation (reference point) for decision-makers in mixed frames.

Optimization of succinic acid fermentation with Actinobacillus succinogenes by response surface methodology (RSM)*

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yun-jian; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Yu-xiu; Wang, Dan; Xing, Jian-min

2012-01-01

Succinic acid is considered as an important platform chemical. Succinic acid fermentation with Actinobacillus succinogenes strain BE-1 was optimized by central composite design (CCD) using a response surface methodology (RSM). The optimized production of succinic acid was predicted and the interactive effects between glucose, yeast extract, and magnesium carbonate were investigated. As a result, a model for predicting the concentration of succinic acid production was developed. The accuracy of the model was confirmed by the analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the validity was further proved by verification experiments showing that percentage errors between actual and predicted values varied from 3.02% to 6.38%. In addition, it was observed that the interactive effect between yeast extract and magnesium carbonate was statistically significant. In conclusion, RSM is an effective and useful method for optimizing the medium components and investigating the interactive effects, and can provide valuable information for succinic acid scale-up fermentation using A. succinogenes strain BE-1. PMID:22302423

Analytical fuel property effects--small combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutton, R. D.; Troth, D. L.; Miles, G. A.

1984-01-01

The consequences of using broad-property fuels in both conventional and advanced state-of-the-art small gas turbine combustors are assessed. Eight combustor concepts were selected for initial screening, of these, four final combustor concepts were chosen for further detailed analysis. These included the dual orifice injector baseline combustor (a current production 250-C30 engine combustor) two baseline airblast injected modifications, short and piloted prechamber combustors, and an advanced airblast injected, variable geometry air staged combustor. Final predictions employed the use of the STAC-I computer code. This quasi 2-D model includes real fuel properties, effects of injector type on atomization, detailed droplet dynamics, and multistep chemical kinetics. In general, fuel property effects on various combustor concepts can be classified as chemical or physical in nature. Predictions indicate that fuel chemistry has a significant effect on flame radiation, liner wall temperature, and smoke emission. Fuel physical properties that govern atomization quality and evaporation rates are predicted to affect ignition and lean-blowout limits, combustion efficiency, unburned hydrocarbon, and carbon monoxide emissions.

Efficient Phosphorus Cycling in Food Production: Predicting the Phosphorus Fertilization Effect of Sludge from Chemical Wastewater Treatment.

PubMed

Falk Øgaard, Anne; Brod, Eva

2016-06-22

This study examined the P fertilization effects of 11 sewage sludges obtained from sewage treated with Al and/or Fe salts to remove P by a pot experiment with ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) and a nutrient-deficient sand-peat mixture. Also it investigated whether fertilization effects could be predicted by chemical sludge characteristics and/or by P extraction. The mineral fertilizer equivalent (MFE) value varied significantly but was low for all sludges. MFE was best predicted by a negative correlation with ox-Al and ox-Fe in sludge, or by a positive correlation with P extracted with 2% citric acid. Ox-Al had a greater negative impact on MFE than ox-Fe, indicating that Fe salts are preferable as a coagulant when aiming to increase the plant availability of P in sludge. The results also indicate that sludge liming after chemical wastewater treatment with Al and/or Fe salts increases the P fertilization effect.

Predicting recidivism in sex offenders with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS).

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D; Deming, Adam; Casbon, Todd

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was capable of predicting recidivism in 322 male sex offenders released from prison-based sex offender programs in a Midwestern state. The Static-99R and PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Reactive (R), and Entitlement (En) scores all correlated significantly with general recidivism, the Static-99R correlated significantly with violent recidivism, and the Static-99R score and PICTS GCT, Proactive (P), and En scores correlated significantly with failure to register as a sex offender (FTR) recidivism. Area under the curve effect size estimates varied from small to large, and Cox regression analyses revealed that the PICTS En score achieved incremental validity relative to the Static-99R in predicting general recidivism and the PICTS GCT, P, and En scores achieved incremental validity relative to the Static-99R in predicting FTR recidivism. It is speculated that the PICTS in general and the En scale in particular may have utility in risk management and treatment planning for sex offenders by virtue of their focus on antisocial thinking. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting the effect of extrinsic and intrinsic job satisfaction factors on recruitment and retention of rehabilitation professionals.

PubMed

Randolph, Diane Smith

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to ascertain which extrinsic and intrinsic job satisfaction areas are most predictive of rehabilitation professionals' career satisfaction and desire to stay on the job. This article discusses the results of a survey conducted on practicing occupational therapists, physical therapists, and speech-language pathologists regarding factors that contribute to career satisfaction and desire to stay on the job. Five hundred surveys were mailed to each profession; 463 were returned, of which 328 were able to be analyzed. Results from regression analysis showed that intrinsic factors such as professional growth and having a work environment in line with personal values are more significant in predicting career satisfaction than are extrinsic factors such as pay and continuing education. These same intrinsic factors are also significant in predicting the rehabilitation professional's desire to stay on the job. These findings are significant to healthcare managers desiring to recruit and retain qualified occupational therapists, physical therapists, and speech-language pathologists. In addition to extrinsic benefits such as pay, healthcare managers need to focus on provision of intrinsic factors such as opportunities for professional growth, recognition of accomplishments, and opportunities for departmental input to motivate rehabilitation professionals.

Test anxiety and academic performance in chiropractic students.

PubMed

Zhang, Niu; Henderson, Charles N R

2014-01-01

Objective : We assessed the level of students' test anxiety, and the relationship between test anxiety and academic performance. Methods : We recruited 166 third-quarter students. The Test Anxiety Inventory (TAI) was administered to all participants. Total scores from written examinations and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs) were used as response variables. Results : Multiple regression analysis shows that there was a modest, but statistically significant negative correlation between TAI scores and written exam scores, but not OSCE scores. Worry and emotionality were the best predictive models for written exam scores. Mean total anxiety and emotionality scores for females were significantly higher than those for males, but not worry scores. Conclusion : Moderate-to-high test anxiety was observed in 85% of the chiropractic students examined. However, total test anxiety, as measured by the TAI score, was a very weak predictive model for written exam performance. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that replacing total anxiety (TAI) with worry and emotionality (TAI subscales) produces a much more effective predictive model of written exam performance. Sex, age, highest current academic degree, and ethnicity contributed little additional predictive power in either regression model. Moreover, TAI scores were not found to be statistically significant predictors of physical exam skill performance, as measured by OSCEs.

Predicting posttraumatic stress symptoms in children following Hurricane Katrina: a prospective analysis of the effect of parental distress and parenting practices.

PubMed

Kelley, Mary Lou; Self-Brown, Shannon; Le, Brenda; Bosson, Julia Vigna; Hernandez, Brittany C; Gordon, Arlene T

2010-10-01

Research exhibits a robust relation between child hurricane exposure, parent distress, and child posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study explored parenting practices that could further explicate this association. Participants were 381 mothers and their children exposed to Hurricane Katrina. It was hypothesized that 3-7 months (T1) and 14-17 months (T2) post-Katrina: (a) hurricane exposure would predict child PTSD symptoms after controlling for history of violence exposure and (b) hurricane exposure would predict parent distress and negative parenting practices, which, in turn, would predict increased child PTSD symptoms. Hypotheses were partially supported. Hurricane exposure directly predicted child PTSD at T1 and indirectly at T2. Additionally, several significant paths emerged from hurricane exposure to parent distress and parenting practices, which were predictive of child PTSD.

Predicting Late Effects of Pelvic Radiotherapy: Is There a Better Approach?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wedlake, Linda J.; Thomas, Karen B.Sc.; Lalji, Amyn

2010-11-15

Purpose: Significant chronic symptoms following pelvic radiotherapy occur more frequently than commonly realized. Predictive factors for the development of late symptoms are poorly defined. Moderate sustained acute (cumulative) toxicity might predict severe late effects better than peak reaction. Methods and Materials: To determine prospectively whether peak or cumulative gastrointestinal (GI) acute symptoms better predict late symptoms in patients receiving pelvic radiotherapy. Symptom scores were measured weekly from the start of radiotherapy, and at 1 year using the Modified Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire-Bowel subset. The possible prognostic impact of patient-related factors was explored. Results: Three hundred and eight patients were recruited.more » 100 were excluded due to lack of follow-up data at one year resulting from death, too ill, stoma, relapsed, non-response or withdrawal. A further 15 were excluded for incomplete data, leaving 193 patients with evaluable data. Of these, 28 had GI, 101 urological, and 64 gynecological cancers. Patients' median age was 65 years (range, 23-82), and they were treated with median 60 Gy dose for a median of 6 weeks. Univariate analysis revealed a significant association between cumulative acute symptom scores and scores at 1 year (p < 0.001), which was dose-independent (p < 0.001). Acute peak and 1-year scores were not associated (p = 0.431). The correlation coefficient between cumulative acute symptoms and symptoms at 1 year was 0.367 and for peak acute symptoms was weaker at 0.057. Patients with an abnormal body mass index and current smokers were more likely to experience worse symptoms at 1 year. Conclusion: Cumulative acute symptoms are more predictive of late symptoms than peak acute changes in score. This association is independent of the radiotherapy dose delivered and is suggestive of a consequential late effect.« less

Unpredicted Pitch Modulates Beta Oscillatory Power during Rhythmic Entrainment to a Tone Sequence.

PubMed

Chang, Andrew; Bosnyak, Dan J; Trainor, Laurel J

2016-01-01

Extracting temporal regularities in external stimuli in order to predict upcoming events is an essential aspect of perception. Fluctuations in induced power of beta band (15-25 Hz) oscillations in auditory cortex are involved in predictive timing during rhythmic entrainment, but whether such fluctuations are affected by prediction in the spectral (frequency/pitch) domain remains unclear. We tested whether unpredicted (i.e., unexpected) pitches in a rhythmic tone sequence modulate beta band activity by recording EEG while participants passively listened to isochronous auditory oddball sequences with occasional unpredicted deviant pitches at two different presentation rates. The results showed that the power in low-beta (15-20 Hz) was larger around 200-300 ms following deviant tones compared to standard tones, and this effect was larger when the deviant tones were less predicted. Our results suggest that the induced beta power activities in auditory cortex are consistent with a role in sensory prediction of both "when" (timing) upcoming sounds will occur as well as the prediction precision error of "what" (spectral content in this case). We suggest, further, that both timing and content predictions may co-modulate beta oscillations via attention. These findings extend earlier work on neural oscillations by investigating the functional significance of beta oscillations for sensory prediction. The findings help elucidate the functional significance of beta oscillations in perception.

Unpredicted Pitch Modulates Beta Oscillatory Power during Rhythmic Entrainment to a Tone Sequence

PubMed Central

Chang, Andrew; Bosnyak, Dan J.; Trainor, Laurel J.

2016-01-01

Extracting temporal regularities in external stimuli in order to predict upcoming events is an essential aspect of perception. Fluctuations in induced power of beta band (15–25 Hz) oscillations in auditory cortex are involved in predictive timing during rhythmic entrainment, but whether such fluctuations are affected by prediction in the spectral (frequency/pitch) domain remains unclear. We tested whether unpredicted (i.e., unexpected) pitches in a rhythmic tone sequence modulate beta band activity by recording EEG while participants passively listened to isochronous auditory oddball sequences with occasional unpredicted deviant pitches at two different presentation rates. The results showed that the power in low-beta (15–20 Hz) was larger around 200–300 ms following deviant tones compared to standard tones, and this effect was larger when the deviant tones were less predicted. Our results suggest that the induced beta power activities in auditory cortex are consistent with a role in sensory prediction of both “when” (timing) upcoming sounds will occur as well as the prediction precision error of “what” (spectral content in this case). We suggest, further, that both timing and content predictions may co-modulate beta oscillations via attention. These findings extend earlier work on neural oscillations by investigating the functional significance of beta oscillations for sensory prediction. The findings help elucidate the functional significance of beta oscillations in perception. PMID:27014138

Gender Roles and Substance Use Among Mexican American Adolescents: A Relationship Moderated by Acculturation?

PubMed Central

Kulis, Stephen; Marsiglia, Flavio Francisco; Nagoshi, Julie L.

2012-01-01

This research assesses the effects of adaptive/maladaptive gender roles and acculturation in predicting substance use in a 2007 sample of 1466 Mexican American seventh-grade adolescents from Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Multiple regression analyses found significant effects for both adaptive and maladaptive gender roles, as well as several gender-specific interactions between gender roles and linguistic acculturation that predicted substance use. Limitations of the research are noted, as well as implications for understanding the impact of acculturation on how gender roles differentially affect substance use in Mexican American boys versus girls. PMID:22136419

Changes in Attitudes, Intentions, and Behaviors toward Tobacco and Marijuana during U.S. Students’ First Year of College

PubMed Central

Stewart, Mara W; Moreno, Megan A

2013-01-01

Tobacco and marijuana are commonly used by college students and have negative health effects. The purpose of this study was to understand how students’ attitudes, intentions, and behaviors toward tobacco and marijuana change during freshman year and to examine how attitude and intention predict use of these substances. 275 college students completed phone interviews before and after their freshman year. The identical interviews assessed students’ attitudes, intentions, and behaviors toward both substances. Attitudes and intentions increased significantly. 12.2% of participants initiated tobacco use and 13.5% initiated marijuana use. Only intention predicted tobacco initiation, while both attitude and intention predicted marijuana initiation. Overall, attitudes, intentions, and behaviors changed significantly toward favored use. Predictors of use varied by substance, suggesting that different prevention approaches may be beneficial. PMID:24761133

Single drug biomarker prediction for ER- breast cancer outcome from chemotherapy.

PubMed

Chen, Yong-Zi; Kim, Youngchul; Soliman, Hatem H; Ying, GuoGuang; Lee, Jae K

2018-06-01

ER-negative breast cancer includes most aggressive subtypes of breast cancer such as triple negative (TN) breast cancer. Excluded from hormonal and targeted therapies effectively used for other subtypes of breast cancer, standard chemotherapy is one of the primary treatment options for these patients. However, as ER- patients have shown highly heterogeneous responses to different chemotherapies, it has been difficult to select most beneficial chemotherapy treatments for them. In this study, we have simultaneously developed single drug biomarker models for four standard chemotherapy agents: paclitaxel (T), 5-fluorouracil (F), doxorubicin (A) and cyclophosphamide (C) to predict responses and survival of ER- breast cancer patients treated with combination chemotherapies. We then flexibly combined these individual drug biomarkers for predicting patient outcomes of two independent cohorts of ER- breast cancer patients who were treated with different drug combinations of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. These individual and combined drug biomarker models significantly predicted chemotherapy response for 197 ER- patients in the Hatzis cohort (AUC = 0.637, P  = 0.002) and 69 ER- patients in the Hess cohort (AUC = 0.635, P  = 0.056). The prediction was also significant for the TN subgroup of both cohorts (AUC = 0.60, 0.72, P  = 0.043, 0.009). In survival analysis, our predicted responder patients showed significantly improved survival with a >17 months longer median PFS than the predicted non-responder patients for both ER- and TN subgroups (log-rank test P -value = 0.018 and 0.044). This flexible prediction capability based on single drug biomarkers may allow us to even select new drug combinations most beneficial to individual patients with ER- breast cancer. © 2018 The authors.

GM(1,N) method for the prediction of anaerobic digestion system and sensitivity analysis of influential factors.

PubMed

Ren, Jingzheng

2018-01-01

Anaerobic digestion process has been recognized as a promising way for waste treatment and energy recovery in a sustainable way. Modelling of anaerobic digestion system is significantly important for effectively and accurately controlling, adjusting, and predicting the system for higher methane yield. The GM(1,N) approach which does not need the mechanism or a large number of samples was employed to model the anaerobic digestion system to predict methane yield. In order to illustrate the proposed model, an illustrative case about anaerobic digestion of municipal solid waste for methane yield was studied, and the results demonstrate that GM(1,N) model can effectively simulate anaerobic digestion system at the cases of poor information with less computational expense. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noise-induced hearing loss: a military perspective.

PubMed

Pfannenstiel, Travis J

2014-10-01

To summarize relevant literature occurring over the past 12-18 months forwarding understanding of noise-induced hearing loss in relation to military service. Hearing loss prior to entry into military service is highly predictive of subsequent hearing loss and hearing loss disability. Tightly controlled organic solvent exposure may not be a significant risk factor for noise-induced hearing loss. Increasingly detailed analysis of high intensity noise, impulse and blast noise exposures, and the methods used to mitigate these exposures are leading to breakthroughs in understanding and predicting hearing loss in military service. Prevention, mitigation, treatment, and prediction of the effects of hazardous noise exposure in military service continue to require a multidisciplinary team of individuals from around the world fully aware of the detrimental effect to service members and their societies of hearing loss disability.

Propagation of sound in highly porous open-cell elastic foams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. F.

1983-01-01

This work presents both theoretical predictions and experimental measurements of attenuation and progressive phase constants of sound in open-cell, highly porous, elastic polyurethane foams. The foams are available commercially in graded pore sizes for which information about the static flow resistance, thermal time constant, volume porosity, dynamic structure factor, and speed of sound is known. The analysis is specialized to highly porous foams which can be efficient sound absorbers at audio frequencies. Negligible effect of internal wave coupling on attenuation and phase shift for the frequency range 16-6000 Hz was predicted and no experimentally significant effects were observed in the bulk samples studied. The agreement between predictions and measurements in bulk materials is excellent. The analysis is applicable to both the regular and compressed elastic open-cell foams.

The Comparative Effects of Prediction/Discussion-Based Learning Cycle, Conceptual Change Text, and Traditional Instructions on Student Understanding of Genetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, Diba; Tekkaya, Ceren; Sungur, Semra

2011-03-01

The present study examined the comparative effects of a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle, conceptual change text (CCT), and traditional instructions on students' understanding of genetics concepts. A quasi-experimental research design of the pre-test-post-test non-equivalent control group was adopted. The three intact classes, taught by the same science teacher, were randomly assigned as prediction/discussion-based learning cycle class (N = 30), CCT class (N = 25), and traditional class (N = 26). Participants completed the genetics concept test as pre-test, post-test, and delayed post-test to examine the effects of instructional strategies on their genetics understanding and retention. While the dependent variable of this study was students' understanding of genetics, the independent variables were time (Time 1, Time 2, and Time 3) and mode of instruction. The mixed between-within subjects analysis of variance revealed that students in both prediction/discussion-based learning cycle and CCT groups understood the genetics concepts and retained their knowledge significantly better than students in the traditional instruction group.

The effects of autonomy-supportive coaching, need satisfaction, and self-perceptions on initiative and identity in youth swimmers.

PubMed

Coatsworth, J Douglas; Conroy, David E

2009-03-01

This study tested a sequential process model linking youth sport coaching climates (perceived coach behaviors and perceived need satisfaction) to youth self-perceptions (perceived competence and global self-esteem) and youth development outcomes (initiative, identity reflection, identity exploration). A sample of 119 youth between the ages of 10 and 18 who participated in a community-directed summer swim league completed questionnaires over the course of the 7-week season. Results indicated that coaches' autonomy support, particularly via process-focused praise, predicted youth competence need satisfaction and relatedness need satisfaction in the coaching relationship. Youth competence need satisfaction predicted self-esteem indirectly via perceived competence. Finally, self-esteem predicted identity reflection, and perceived competence predicted both identity reflection and initiative. Effects of age, sex, and perceptions of direct contact with the coach were not significant. Findings suggest that the quality of the coaching climate is an important predictor of the developmental benefits of sport participation and that one pathway by which the coaching climate has its effect on initiative and identity reflection is through developing youth self-perceptions.

Effective moisture penetration depth model for residential buildings: Sensitivity analysis and guidance on model inputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woods, Jason; Winkler, Jon

Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to themore » interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.« less

A procedure for utilization of a damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, David C.; Allen, David H.; Harris, Charles E.

1992-01-01

Described here is the procedure for utilizing a damage constitutive model to predict progressive damage growth in laminated composites. In this model, the effects of the internal damage are represented by strain-like second order tensorial damage variables and enter the analysis through damage dependent ply level and laminate level constitutive equations. The growth of matrix cracks due to fatigue loading is predicted by an experimentally based damage evolutionary relationship. This model is incorporated into a computer code called FLAMSTR. This code is capable of predicting the constitutive response and matrix crack damage accumulation in fatigue loaded laminated composites. The structure and usage of FLAMSTR are presented along with sample input and output files to assist the code user. As an example problem, an analysis of crossply laminates subjected to two stage fatigue loading was conducted and the resulting damage accumulation and stress redistribution were examined to determine the effect of variations in fatigue load amplitude applied during the first stage of the load history. It was found that the model predicts a significant loading history effect on damage evolution.

Effective moisture penetration depth model for residential buildings: Sensitivity analysis and guidance on model inputs

DOE PAGES

Woods, Jason; Winkler, Jon

2018-01-31

Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to themore » interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.« less

The Effects of Autonomy-supportive Coaching, Need Satisfaction and Self-Perceptions on Initiative and Identity in Youth Swimmers

PubMed Central

Coatsworth, J. Douglas; Conroy, David E.

2015-01-01

This study tested a sequential process model linking youth sport coaching climates (perceived coach behaviors and perceived need satisfaction) to youth self-perceptions (perceived competence and global self-esteem) and youth development outcomes (initiative, identity reflection, identity exploration). A sample of 119 youth between the ages 10–18 who participated in a community-directed summer swim league completed questionnaires over the course of the seven-week season. Results indicated that coaches’ autonomy support, particularly via process-focused praise, predicted youth competence and relatedness need satisfaction in the coaching relationship. Youth competence need satisfaction predicted self-esteem indirectly via perceived competence. Finally, self-esteem predicted identity reflection and perceived competence predicted both identity reflection and initiative. Effects of age, sex, and perceptions of direct contact with the coach were not significant. Findings suggest that the quality of the coaching climate is an important predictor of the developmental benefits of sport participation and that one pathway by which the coaching climate has its effect on initiative and identity reflection is through developing youth self-perceptions. PMID:19271821

Effects of time delay and pitch control sensitivity in the flared landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berthe, C. J.; Chalk, C. R.; Wingarten, N. C.; Grantham, W.

1986-01-01

Between December 1985 and January 1986, a flared landing program was conducted, using the USAF Total In-Flight simulator airplane, to examine time delay effects in a formal manner. Results show that as pitch sensitivity is increased, tolerance to time delay decreases. With the proper selection of pitch sensitivity, Level I performance was maintained with time delays ranging from 150 milliseconds to greater than 300 milliseconds. With higher sensitivity, configurations with Level I performance at 150 milliseconds degraded to level 2 at 200 milliseconds. When metrics of time delay and pitch sensitivity effects are applied to enhance previously developed predictive criteria, the result is an improved prediction technique which accounts for significant closed loop items.

Fluorescence quenching near small metal nanoparticles.

PubMed

Pustovit, V N; Shahbazyan, T V

2012-05-28

We develop a microscopic model for fluorescence of a molecule (or semiconductor quantum dot) near a small metal nanoparticle. When a molecule is situated close to metal surface, its fluorescence is quenched due to energy transfer to the metal. We perform quantum-mechanical calculations of energy transfer rates for nanometer-sized Au nanoparticles and find that nonlocal and quantum-size effects significantly enhance dissipation in metal as compared to those predicted by semiclassical electromagnetic models. However, the dependence of transfer rates on molecule's distance to metal nanoparticle surface, d, is significantly weaker than the d(-4) behavior for flat metal surface with a sharp boundary predicted by previous calculations within random phase approximation.

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance

PubMed Central

Kramer, Karen L.; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

2016-01-01

Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children’s growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children’s monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children’s growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children’s growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children’s growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance. PMID:26938742

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

PubMed

Kramer, Karen L; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

2016-01-01

Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

When is an Inhibitory Synapse Effective?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Ning; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

1990-10-01

Interactions between excitatory and inhibitory synaptic inputs on dendrites determine the level of activity in neurons. Models based on the cable equation predict that silent shunting inhibition can strongly veto the effect of an excitatory input. The cable model assumes that ionic concentrations do not change during the electrical activity, which may not be a valid assumption, especially for small structures such as dendritic spines. We present here an analysis and computer simulations to show that for large Cl^- conductance changes, the more general Nernst-Planck electrodiffusion model predicts that shunting inhibition on spines should be much less effective than that predicted by the cable model. This is a consequence of the large changes in the intracellular ionic concentration of Cl^- that can occur in small structures, which would alter the reversal potential and reduce the driving force for Cl^-. Shunting inhibition should therefore not be effective on spines, but it could be significantly more effective on the dendritic shaft at the base of the spine. In contrast to shunting inhibition, hyperpolarizing synaptic inhibition mediated by K^+ currents can be very effective in reducing the excitatory synaptic potentials on the same spine if the excitatory conductance change is less than 10 nS. We predict that if the inhibitory synapses found on cortical spines are to be effective, then they should be mediated by K^+ through GABA_B receptors.

Appraisal and coping styles account for the effects of temperament on preadolescent adjustment

PubMed Central

Thompson, Stephanie F.; Zalewski, Maureen; Lengua, Liliana J.

2014-01-01

Temperament, appraisal, and coping are known to underlie emotion regulation, yet less is known about how these processes relate to each other across time. We examined temperamental fear, frustration, effortful control, and impulsivity, positive and threat appraisals, and active and avoidant coping as processes underpinning the emotion regulation of pre-adolescent children managing stressful events. Appraisal and coping styles were tested as mediators of the longitudinal effects of temperamental emotionality and self-regulation on adjustment using a community sample (N=316) of preadolescent children (8–12 years at T1) studied across one year. High threat appraisals were concurrently related to high fear and impulsivity, whereas effortful control predicted relative decreases in threat appraisal. High fear was concurrently related to high positive appraisal, and impulsivity predicted increases in positive appraisal. Fear was concurrently related to greater avoidant coping, and impulsivity predicted increases in avoidance. Frustration predicted decreases in active coping. These findings suggest temperament, or dispositional aspects of reactivity and regulation, relates to concurrent appraisal and coping processes and additionally predicts change in these processes. Significant indirect effects indicated that appraisal and coping mediated the effects of temperament on adjustment. Threat appraisal mediated the effects of fear and effortful control on internalizing and externalizing problems, and avoidant coping mediated the effect of impulsivity on internalizing problems. These mediated effects suggest that one pathway through which temperament influences adjustment is pre-adolescents’ appraisal and coping. Findings highlight temperament, appraisal and coping as emotion regulation processes relevant to children’s adjustment in response to stress. PMID:25821237

Artificial neural network approach to predict surgical site infection after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer

PubMed Central

Kuo, Pao-Jen; Wu, Shao-Chun; Chien, Peng-Chen; Chang, Shu-Shya; Rau, Cheng-Shyuan; Tai, Hsueh-Ling; Peng, Shu-Hui; Lin, Yi-Chun; Chen, Yi-Chun; Hsieh, Hsiao-Yun; Hsieh, Ching-Hua

2018-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to develop an effective surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model in patients receiving free-flap reconstruction after surgery for head and neck cancer using artificial neural network (ANN), and to compare its predictive power with that of conventional logistic regression (LR). Materials and methods There were 1,836 patients with 1,854 free-flap reconstructions and 438 postoperative SSIs in the dataset for analysis. They were randomly assigned tin ratio of 7:3 into a training set and a test set. Based on comprehensive characteristics of patients and diseases in the absence or presence of operative data, prediction of SSI was performed at two time points (pre-operatively and post-operatively) with a feed-forward ANN and the LR models. In addition to the calculated accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, the predictive performance of ANN and LR were assessed based on area under the curve (AUC) measures of receiver operator characteristic curves and Brier score. Results ANN had a significantly higher AUC (0.892) of post-operative prediction and AUC (0.808) of pre-operative prediction than LR (both P<0.0001). In addition, there was significant higher AUC of post-operative prediction than pre-operative prediction by ANN (p<0.0001). With the highest AUC and the lowest Brier score (0.090), the post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall predictive performance. Conclusion The post-operative prediction by ANN had the highest overall performance in predicting SSI after free-flap reconstruction in patients receiving surgery for head and neck cancer. PMID:29568393

Stated response to increased enforcement density and penalty size for speeding and driving unbelted.

PubMed

Hössinger, Reinhard; Berger, Wolfgang J

2012-11-01

To what extent can traffic offences be reduced through stronger enforcement, higher penalties, and the provision of information to road users? This question was addressed with respect to the offences of "speeding" and "driving unbelted." Data were collected by a telephone survey of admitted speeders, followed by 438 face-to-face stated response interviews. Based on the data collected, separate statistical models were developed for the two offences. The models predict the behavioral effect of increasing enforcement density and/or penalty size as well as the additional effect of providing information to car drivers. All three factors are predicted to be effective in reducing speeding. According to the model, one additional enforcement event per year will cause a driver to reduce his current frequency of speeding by 5%. A penalty increase of 10 Euros is predicted to have the same effect. An announcement of stronger enforcement or higher fines is predicted to have an additional effect on behavior, independent of the actual magnitudes of increase in enforcement or fines. With respect to the use of a seat belt, however, neither an increase in enforcement density nor its announcement is predicted to have a significant effect on driver behavior. An increase in the penalty size is predicted to raise the stated wearing rate, which is already 90% in Austria. It seems that both the fear of punishment and the motivation for driving unbelted are limited, so that there is only a weak tradeoff between the two. This may apply to most traffic offences, with the exception of speeding, which accounts for over 80% of tickets alone, whereas all other offences account for less than 3% each. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting use of effective vegetable parenting practices with the Model of Goal Directed Behavior.

PubMed

Diep, Cassandra S; Beltran, Alicia; Chen, Tzu-An; Thompson, Debbe; O'Connor, Teresia; Hughes, Sheryl; Baranowski, Janice; Baranowski, Tom

2015-06-01

To model effective vegetable parenting practices using the Model of Goal Directed Vegetable Parenting Practices construct scales. An Internet survey was conducted with parents of pre-school children to assess their agreement with effective vegetable parenting practices and Model of Goal Directed Vegetable Parenting Practices items. Block regression modelling was conducted using the composite score of effective vegetable parenting practices scales as the outcome variable and the Model of Goal Directed Vegetable Parenting Practices constructs as predictors in separate and sequential blocks: demographics, intention, desire (intrinsic motivation), perceived barriers, autonomy, relatedness, self-efficacy, habit, anticipated emotions, perceived behavioural control, attitudes and lastly norms. Backward deletion was employed at the end for any variable not significant at P<0·05. Houston, TX, USA. Three hundred and seven parents (mostly mothers) of pre-school children. Significant predictors in the final model in order of relationship strength included habit of active child involvement in vegetable selection, habit of positive vegetable communications, respondent not liking vegetables, habit of keeping a positive vegetable environment and perceived behavioural control of having a positive influence on child's vegetable consumption. The final model's adjusted R 2 was 0·486. This was the first study to test scales from a behavioural model to predict effective vegetable parenting practices. Further research needs to assess these Model of Goal Directed Vegetable Parenting Practices scales for their (i) predictiveness of child consumption of vegetables in longitudinal samples and (ii) utility in guiding design of vegetable parenting practices interventions.

Effects of Anti-VEGF on Predicted Antibody Biodistribution: Roles of Vascular Volume, Interstitial Volume, and Blood Flow

PubMed Central

Boswell, C. Andrew; Ferl, Gregory Z.; Mundo, Eduardo E.; Bumbaca, Daniela; Schweiger, Michelle G.; Theil, Frank-Peter; Fielder, Paul J.; Khawli, Leslie A.

2011-01-01

Background The identification of clinically meaningful and predictive models of disposition kinetics for cancer therapeutics is an ongoing pursuit in drug development. In particular, the growing interest in preclinical evaluation of anti-angiogenic agents alone or in combination with other drugs requires a complete understanding of the associated physiological consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings Technescan™ PYP™, a clinically utilized radiopharmaceutical, was used to measure tissue vascular volumes in beige nude mice that were naïve or administered a single intravenous bolus dose of a murine anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) antibody (10 mg/kg) 24 h prior to assay. Anti-VEGF had no significant effect (p>0.05) on the fractional vascular volumes of any tissues studied; these findings were further supported by single photon emission computed tomographic imaging. In addition, apart from a borderline significant increase (p = 0.048) in mean hepatic blood flow, no significant anti-VEGF-induced differences were observed (p>0.05) in two additional physiological parameters, interstitial fluid volume and the organ blood flow rate, measured using indium-111-pentetate and rubidium-86 chloride, respectively. Areas under the concentration-time curves generated by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model changed substantially (>25%) in several tissues when model parameters describing compartmental volumes and blood flow rates were switched from literature to our experimentally derived values. However, negligible changes in predicted tissue exposure were observed when comparing simulations based on parameters measured in naïve versus anti-VEGF-administered mice. Conclusions/Significance These observations may foster an enhanced understanding of anti-VEGF effects in murine tissues and, in particular, may be useful in modeling antibody uptake alone or in combination with anti-VEGF. PMID:21436893

Parametric Study to Determine the Effect of Temperature on Oil Soldifier Performance and the Development of a new Empirical Correlation for Predicting Effectiveness

EPA Science Inventory

Temperature can play a significant role in the efficacy of solidifiers in removing oil slicks on water. We studied and quantified the effect of temperature on the performance of several solidifiers using 5 different types of oils under a newly developed testing protocol by condu...

Parametric Study to Determine the Effect of Temperature on Oil Solidifier Performance and the Development of a New Empirical Correlation for Predicting Effectiveness

EPA Science Inventory

Temperature can play a significant role in the efficacy of solidifiers in removing oil slicks on water. We studied and quantified the effect of temperature on the performance of several solidifiers using 5 different types of oils under a newly developed testing protocol by conduc...

Predicting the effects of tropospheric ozone on forest productivity in the Northeastern U.S.

Treesearch

Scott V. Ollinger; John D. Aber; Peter B. Reich

1996-01-01

It is widely believed that tropospheric ozone presents a significant anthropogenic stress on forest ecosystems. Although much information has been collected regarding ozone effects at the seedling and leaf level, we do not have a reliable means of estimating the effect on mature, native forests. For the present study, we incorporated leaf-level ozone response...

Marker-based estimates reveal significant non-additive effects in clonally propagated cassava (Manihot esculenta): implications for the prediction of total genetic value and the selection of varieties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In clonally propagated crops, non-additive genetic effects can be effectively exploited by the identification of superior genetic individuals as varieties. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop that feeds hundreds of millions. We quantified the amount and natur...

Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

Treesearch

Bachisio Arca; Grazia Pellizzaro; Pierpaolo Duce; Michele Salis; Valentina Bacciu; Donatella Spano; Alan Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a...

The Effects of Individual or Group Guidelines on the Calibration Accuracy and Achievement of High School Biology Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bol, Linda; Hacker, Douglas J.; Walck, Camilla C.; Nunnery, John A.

2012-01-01

A 2 x 2 factorial design was employed in a quasi-experiment to investigate the effects of guidelines in group or individual settings on the calibration accuracy and achievement of 82 high school biology students. Significant main effects indicated that calibration practice with guidelines and practice in group settings increased prediction and…

Determining vehicle operating speed and lateral position along horizontal curves using linear mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Fitzsimmons, Eric J; Kvam, Vanessa; Souleyrette, Reginald R; Nambisan, Shashi S; Bonett, Douglas G

2013-01-01

Despite recent improvements in highway safety in the United States, serious crashes on curves remain a significant problem. To assist in better understanding causal factors leading to this problem, this article presents and demonstrates a methodology for collection and analysis of vehicle trajectory and speed data for rural and urban curves using Z-configured road tubes. For a large number of vehicle observations at 2 horizontal curves located in Dexter and Ames, Iowa, the article develops vehicle speed and lateral position prediction models for multiple points along these curves. Linear mixed-effects models were used to predict vehicle lateral position and speed along the curves as explained by operational, vehicle, and environmental variables. Behavior was visually represented for an identified subset of "risky" drivers. Linear mixed-effect regression models provided the means to predict vehicle speed and lateral position while taking into account repeated observations of the same vehicle along horizontal curves. Speed and lateral position at point of entry were observed to influence trajectory and speed profiles. Rural horizontal curve site models are presented that indicate that the following variables were significant and influenced both vehicle speed and lateral position: time of day, direction of travel (inside or outside lane), and type of vehicle.

A two-layer model for buoyant inertial displacement flows in inclined pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etrati, Ali; Frigaard, Ian A.

2018-02-01

We investigate the inertial flows found in buoyant miscible displacements using a two-layer model. From displacement flow experiments in inclined pipes, it has been observed that for significant ranges of Fr and Re cos β/Fr, a two-layer, stratified flow develops with the heavier fluid moving at the bottom of the pipe. Due to significant inertial effects, thin-film/lubrication models developed for laminar, viscous flows are not effective for predicting these flows. Here we develop a displacement model that addresses this shortcoming. The complete model for the displacement flow consists of mass and momentum equations for each fluid, resulting in a set of four non-linear equations. By integrating over each layer and eliminating the pressure gradient, we reduce the system to two equations for the area and mean velocity of the heavy fluid layer. The wall and interfacial stresses appear as source terms in the reduced system. The final system of equations is solved numerically using a robust, shock-capturing scheme. The equations are stabilized to remove non-physical instabilities. A linear stability analysis is able to predict the onset of instabilities at the interface and together with numerical solution, is used to study displacement effectiveness over different parametric regimes. Backflow and instability onset predictions are made for different viscosity ratios.

The effects of Present Hedonistic Time Perspective and Past Negative Time Perspective on substance use consequences.

PubMed

Chavarria, Jesus; Allan, Nicholas P; Moltisanti, Allison; Taylor, Jeanette

2015-07-01

The overuse of substances can lead to economic, physical, and social consequences. Previous research has demonstrated associations between time perspective and frequency of substance use, but no studies have investigated time perspective's effect on substance use consequences. This study aimed to fill this gap in the literature. Using an MTurk sample (N=531), latent factor models tested the hypothesis that both Present Hedonistic Time Perspective (PrHTP) and Past Negative Time Perspective PaNTP positively predict alcohol and illicit drug use consequences. Bootstrap analyses were then used to test the hypothesis that PrHTP indirectly affected the relationship between PaNTP and alcohol and illicit drug use consequences. PrHTP significantly predicted alcohol and illicit drug use consequences. PaNTP also significantly predicted alcohol and illicit drug use consequences. PrHTP was found to indirectly affect the relationship between PaNTP and substance use consequences for both alcohol and illicit drugs. The findings are consistent with previous research and introduce time perspective as an individual differences risk factor for substance use consequences. The partial and full indirect effects are consistent with the idea that individuals with a PaNTP may develop a PrHTP, placing them at risk for substance use consequences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marker-Based Estimates Reveal Significant Non-additive Effects in Clonally Propagated Cassava (Manihot esculenta): Implications for the Prediction of Total Genetic Value and the Selection of Varieties.

PubMed

Wolfe, Marnin D; Kulakow, Peter; Rabbi, Ismail Y; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2016-08-31

In clonally propagated crops, non-additive genetic effects can be effectively exploited by the identification of superior genetic individuals as varieties. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop that feeds hundreds of millions. We quantified the amount and nature of non-additive genetic variation for three key traits in a breeding population of cassava from sub-Saharan Africa using additive and non-additive genome-wide marker-based relationship matrices. We then assessed the accuracy of genomic prediction for total (additive plus non-additive) genetic value. We confirmed previous findings based on diallel populations, that non-additive genetic variation is significant for key cassava traits. Specifically, we found that dominance is particularly important for root yield and epistasis contributes strongly to variation in CMD resistance. Further, we showed that total genetic value predicted observed phenotypes more accurately than additive only models for root yield but not for dry matter content, which is mostly additive or for CMD resistance, which has high narrow-sense heritability. We address the implication of these results for cassava breeding and put our work in the context of previous results in cassava, and other plant and animal species. Copyright © 2016 Author et al.

A prospective examination of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior among psychiatric adolescent inpatients.

PubMed

Czyz, Ewa K; Berona, Johnny; King, Cheryl A

2015-04-01

The challenge of identifying suicide risk in adolescents, and particularly among high-risk subgroups such as adolescent inpatients, calls for further study of models of suicidal behavior that could meaningfully aid in the prediction of risk. This study examined how well the Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicidal Behavior (IPTS)--with its constructs of thwarted belongingness (TB), perceived burdensomeness (PB), and an acquired capability (AC) for lethal self-injury--predicts suicide attempts among adolescents (N = 376) 3 and 12 months after hospitalization. The three-way interaction between PB, TB, and AC, defined as a history of multiple suicide attempts, was not significant. However, there were significant 2-way interaction effects, which varied by sex: girls with low AC and increasing TB, and boys with high AC and increasing PB, were more likely to attempt suicide at 3 months. Only high AC predicted 12-month attempts. Results suggest gender-specific associations between theory components and attempts. The time-limited effects of these associations point to TB and PB being dynamic and modifiable in high-risk populations, whereas the effects of AC are more lasting. The study also fills an important gap in existing research by examining IPTS prospectively. © 2014 The American Association of Suicidology.

Violent video game effects on aggression, empathy, and prosocial behavior in eastern and western countries: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Anderson, Craig A; Shibuya, Akiko; Ihori, Nobuko; Swing, Edward L; Bushman, Brad J; Sakamoto, Akira; Rothstein, Hannah R; Saleem, Muniba

2010-03-01

Meta-analytic procedures were used to test the effects of violent video games on aggressive behavior, aggressive cognition, aggressive affect, physiological arousal, empathy/desensitization, and prosocial behavior. Unique features of this meta-analytic review include (a) more restrictive methodological quality inclusion criteria than in past meta-analyses; (b) cross-cultural comparisons; (c) longitudinal studies for all outcomes except physiological arousal; (d) conservative statistical controls; (e) multiple moderator analyses; and (f) sensitivity analyses. Social-cognitive models and cultural differences between Japan and Western countries were used to generate theory-based predictions. Meta-analyses yielded significant effects for all 6 outcome variables. The pattern of results for different outcomes and research designs (experimental, cross-sectional, longitudinal) fit theoretical predictions well. The evidence strongly suggests that exposure to violent video games is a causal risk factor for increased aggressive behavior, aggressive cognition, and aggressive affect and for decreased empathy and prosocial behavior. Moderator analyses revealed significant research design effects, weak evidence of cultural differences in susceptibility and type of measurement effects, and no evidence of sex differences in susceptibility. Results of various sensitivity analyses revealed these effects to be robust, with little evidence of selection (publication) bias.

The relationship between cigarette taxes and child maltreatment.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Michael

2018-05-01

Prior research suggests that income and child maltreatment are related, but questions remain about the specific types of economic factors that affect the risk of maltreatment. The need to understand the role of economics in child welfare is critical, given the significant public health costs of child maltreatment. One factor that has been overlooked is regressive taxation. This study addresses this need by examining whether state-level changes in cigarette tax rates predict changes in state-level child maltreatment rates. The results of both a fixed effects (FE) and a fixed effects instrumental variables (FE-IV) estimator show that increases in state cigarette tax rates are followed by increases in child abuse and neglect. An additional test finds that increases in the sales tax (another tax deemed to be regressive) also predict increases in child maltreatment rates. Taken as a whole, the findings suggest that regressive taxes have a significant effect on the risk of child maltreatment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Childhood socioeconomic status and childhood maltreatment: Distinct associations with brain structure

PubMed Central

Lawson, Gwendolyn M.; Camins, Joshua S.; Wisse, Laura; Wu, Jue; Duda, Jeffrey T.; Cook, Philip A.; Gee, James C.; Farah, Martha J.

2017-01-01

The present study examined the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status (SES), childhood maltreatment, and the volumes of the hippocampus and amygdala between the ages of 25 and 36 years. Previous work has linked both low SES and maltreatment with reduced hippocampal volume in childhood, an effect attributed to childhood stress. In 46 adult subjects, only childhood maltreatment, and not childhood SES, predicted hippocampal volume in regression analyses, with greater maltreatment associated with lower volume. Neither factor was related to amygdala volume. When current SES and recent interpersonal stressful events were also considered, recent interpersonal stressful events predicted smaller hippocampal volumes over and above childhood maltreatment. Finally, exploratory analyses revealed a significant sex by childhood SES interaction, with women’s childhood SES showing a significantly more positive relation (less negative) with hippocampus volume than men’s. The overall effect of childhood maltreatment but not SES, and the sex-specific effect of childhood SES, indicate that different forms of stressful childhood adversity affect brain development differently. PMID:28414755

Multiple exposure routes of a pesticide exacerbate effects on a grazing mayfly.

PubMed

Pristed, Mathias Joachim Skov; Bundschuh, Mirco; Rasmussen, Jes Jessen

2016-09-01

Hydrophobic pesticides such as pyrethroid insecticides tend to occur in their soluble form mainly as transient pulses in streams. In addition, they are regularly detected in significant quantities adsorbed to stream sediments and other organic in-stream structures. Consequently, stream biota is likely subjected to pesticide exposure via multiple routes. In this study we aimed at investigating the influence of exposure routes for the pyrethroid insecticide lambda-cyhalothrin on the grazing mayfly Heptagenia sulphurea. Therefore, H. sulphurea was exposed to lambda-cyhalothrin via single- (water or biofilm) or biphasic exposure (water and biofilm) at environmentally realistic concentrations (0, 0.1, 1μgL(-1)) and exposure duration (2h) in a full factorial design (n=5). Mortality, moulting frequency, and biofilm accrual (proxy for feeding rate) were recorded subsequent to a 7 d post exposure period. Mortality significantly increased and moulting frequency significantly decreased with increasing concentrations of lambda-cyhalothrin in the water phase whereas exposure via biofilm prompted no significant effects on these endpoints (α=0.05). Effect predictions systematically underestimated and overestimated effects for mortality and moulting frequency, respectively. Similarly, mayfly feeding rate was significantly reduced by water phase exposure whereas pre-exposed biofilm did not significantly affect this variable. However, we found a significant but non-systematic interaction between water phase and biofilm exposure on mayfly feeding rate. Our results show that exposure to the same pesticide via multiple exposure routes may increase the magnitude of effects beyond the level predicted from single phase exposures which has clear implications for the aquatic risk assessment of hydrophobic pesticides. However, our results additionally reveal that interactions between pesticide exposure routes may vary between selected dependent variables. We emphasize that unravelling the underlying mechanisms causing these discrepancies in interactive effects between exposure routes is a major aspect that should receive further attention in future research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rigorous assessment and integration of the sequence and structure based features to predict hot spots

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Systematic mutagenesis studies have shown that only a few interface residues termed hot spots contribute significantly to the binding free energy of protein-protein interactions. Therefore, hot spots prediction becomes increasingly important for well understanding the essence of proteins interactions and helping narrow down the search space for drug design. Currently many computational methods have been developed by proposing different features. However comparative assessment of these features and furthermore effective and accurate methods are still in pressing need. Results In this study, we first comprehensively collect the features to discriminate hot spots and non-hot spots and analyze their distributions. We find that hot spots have lower relASA and larger relative change in ASA, suggesting hot spots tend to be protected from bulk solvent. In addition, hot spots have more contacts including hydrogen bonds, salt bridges, and atomic contacts, which favor complexes formation. Interestingly, we find that conservation score and sequence entropy are not significantly different between hot spots and non-hot spots in Ab+ dataset (all complexes). While in Ab- dataset (antigen-antibody complexes are excluded), there are significant differences in two features between hot pots and non-hot spots. Secondly, we explore the predictive ability for each feature and the combinations of features by support vector machines (SVMs). The results indicate that sequence-based feature outperforms other combinations of features with reasonable accuracy, with a precision of 0.69, a recall of 0.68, an F1 score of 0.68, and an AUC of 0.68 on independent test set. Compared with other machine learning methods and two energy-based approaches, our approach achieves the best performance. Moreover, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to predict hot spots of two protein complexes. Conclusion Experimental results show that support vector machine classifiers are quite effective in predicting hot spots based on sequence features. Hot spots cannot be fully predicted through simple analysis based on physicochemical characteristics, but there is reason to believe that integration of features and machine learning methods can remarkably improve the predictive performance for hot spots. PMID:21798070

Prediction of Tissue Outcome and Assessment of Treatment Effect in Acute Ischemic Stroke Using Deep Learning.

PubMed

Nielsen, Anne; Hansen, Mikkel Bo; Tietze, Anna; Mouridsen, Kim

2018-06-01

Treatment options for patients with acute ischemic stroke depend on the volume of salvageable tissue. This volume assessment is currently based on fixed thresholds and single imagine modalities, limiting accuracy. We wish to develop and validate a predictive model capable of automatically identifying and combining acute imaging features to accurately predict final lesion volume. Using acute magnetic resonance imaging, we developed and trained a deep convolutional neural network (CNN deep ) to predict final imaging outcome. A total of 222 patients were included, of which 187 were treated with rtPA (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator). The performance of CNN deep was compared with a shallow CNN based on the perfusion-weighted imaging biomarker Tmax (CNN Tmax ), a shallow CNN based on a combination of 9 different biomarkers (CNN shallow ), a generalized linear model, and thresholding of the diffusion-weighted imaging biomarker apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) at 600×10 -6 mm 2 /s (ADC thres ). To assess whether CNN deep is capable of differentiating outcomes of ±intravenous rtPA, patients not receiving intravenous rtPA were included to train CNN deep, -rtpa to access a treatment effect. The networks' performances were evaluated using visual inspection, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and contrast. CNN deep yields significantly better performance in predicting final outcome (AUC=0.88±0.12) than generalized linear model (AUC=0.78±0.12; P =0.005), CNN Tmax (AUC=0.72±0.14; P <0.003), and ADC thres (AUC=0.66±0.13; P <0.0001) and a substantially better performance than CNN shallow (AUC=0.85±0.11; P =0.063). Measured by contrast, CNN deep improves the predictions significantly, showing superiority to all other methods ( P ≤0.003). CNN deep also seems to be able to differentiate outcomes based on treatment strategy with the volume of final infarct being significantly different ( P =0.048). The considerable prediction improvement accuracy over current state of the art increases the potential for automated decision support in providing recommendations for personalized treatment plans. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

2017-06-01

Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

76 FR 81437 - Proposed Significant New Use Rule for Phenol, 2,4-dimethyl-6-(1-methylpentadecyl)-

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-28

... Activity Relationships (EcoSAR) dataset for phenols has been significantly updated to include 203 chemicals... result, when the most recent version of EcoSAR was run for phenol, 2,4-dimethyl-6-(1-methylpentadecyl... the new EcoSAR prediction of no expected acute or chronic adverse ecological effects. Therefore, based...

The predictive validity of common risk assessment tools in men with intellectual disabilities and problematic sexual behaviors.

PubMed

Fedoroff, J Paul; Richards, Deborah; Ranger, Rebekah; Curry, Susan

2016-10-01

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen's d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC=0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC=0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC=0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC=0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC=0.71). The t-test and Cohen's d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Linked electronic medication systems in community pharmacies for preventing pseudoephedrine diversion: a review of international practice and analysis of results in Australia.

PubMed

Berbatis, Constantine G; Sunderland, Vivian Bruce; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S

2009-11-01

Pseudoephedrine is a precursor often diverted into the illegal manufacture of amphetamine type substances (ATS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a linked electronic medication recording system (LEMS) established in Australian pharmacies in 2005 for preventing the diversion of pseudoephedrine. The number of illegal ATS laboratories detected in each jurisdiction of Australia from 1996-1997 to 2004-2005 were analysed by linear regression nationally and by each jurisdiction. The statistical significance of seizures in 2005-2006 was based on the comparison of the observed value to the 95% prediction confidence intervals calculated from the historical data for each jurisdiction and nationally. Pharmacies in Queensland commenced an LEMS in late 2005 to minimise retail pseudoephedrine diversion. The number of ATS laboratories seized in 2005-2006 in Queensland was significantly lower (P < 0.05) than predicted by historical data. For all other jurisdictions and nationally the totals of laboratories seized in 2005-2006 were not significantly different from predicted values. The significant decline in ATS illegal laboratories seized in Queensland in 2005-2006 suggests the effective use of LEMS in pharmacies to minimise pseudoephedrine diversion. In order to evaluate a national LEMS, more frequent data on numbers of linked pharmacies, ATS laboratories seized and indicators of pseudoephedrine sales and misuse are required. Testing the use of LEMS by pharmacies for preventing the diversion of other medicines seems appropriate.

Patient Health Communication Mediating Effects Between Gastrointestinal Symptoms and Gastrointestinal Worry in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

PubMed

Varni, James W; Shulman, Robert J; Self, Mariella M; Saeed, Shehzad A; Patel, Ashish S; Nurko, Samuel; Neigut, Deborah A; Saps, Miguel; Zacur, George M; Dark, Chelsea V; Bendo, Cristiane B; Pohl, John F

2017-05-01

To investigate the effects of patient health communication regarding their inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to their health care providers and significant others in their daily life as a mediator in the relationship between gastrointestinal symptoms and gastrointestinal worry in pediatric patients. The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory Gastrointestinal Symptoms, Gastrointestinal Worry, and Communication Scales, and Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 Generic Core Scales were completed in a 9-site study by 252 pediatric patients with IBD. Gastrointestinal Symptoms Scales measuring stomach pain, constipation, or diarrhea and patient communication were tested for bivariate and multivariate linear associations with Gastrointestinal Worry Scales specific to patient worry about stomach pain or bowel movements. Mediational analyses were conducted to test the hypothesized mediating effects of patient health communication as an intervening variable in the relationship between gastrointestinal symptoms and gastrointestinal worry. The predictive effects of gastrointestinal symptoms on gastrointestinal worry were mediated in part by patient health communication with health care providers/significant others in their daily life. In predictive models using multiple regression analyses, the full conceptual model of demographic variables, gastrointestinal symptoms (stomach pain, constipation, or diarrhea), and patient communication significantly accounted for 46, 43, and 54 percent of the variance in gastrointestinal worry (all Ps < 0.001), respectively, reflecting large effect sizes. Patient health communication explains in part the effects of gastrointestinal symptoms on gastrointestinal worry in pediatric patients with IBD. Supporting patient disease-specific communication to their health care providers and significant others may improve health-related quality of life for pediatric patients with IBD.

Effects of Self-Perceptions on Self-Learning among Teacher Education Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Shih-Hsiung

2015-01-01

This study evaluates the multivariate hypothesized model that predicts the significance of, and relationships among, various self-perception factors for being a qualified teacher and their direct and mediated effects on self-learning activities among teacher education students. A total of 248 teacher education students enrolled at an education…

Effect of Olanzapine on Clinical and Polysomnography Profiles in Patients with Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Sarkar, Sukanto; Nizamie, S. Haque

2018-01-01

Acute and short-term administration of olanzapine has a favorable effect on sleep in schizophrenia patients. This study aimed to clarify the effect of olanzapine on polysomnographic profiles of schizophrenia patients during the acute phase of illness after controlling for previous drug exposure. Twenty-five drug-naïve or drug-free schizophrenia patients were assessed at baseline and after six weeks of olanzapine treatment on Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), and Udvalg for Kliniske Undersogelser (UKU) side-effect rating scale and a whole-night polysomnography; fifteen patients completed the study. There was a significant reduction in all psychopathological variables with maximum reduction in PANSS total, BPRS total, and PANSS positive scores. A significant increase in total sleep time (TST), sleep efficiency (SE), nonrapid eye movement (NREM) stage 1 duration, stage 3 duration, stage 4 duration, and stage 4 percentage of TST, number of rapid eye movement (REM) periods, REM duration, and REM percentage of TST was observed. REM latency at baseline inversely predicted the reduction in BPRS total and PANSS total and positive scores. In summary, short-term treatment with olanzapine produced significant improvement in clinical and polysomnography profiles of patients with schizophrenia with shorter REM latency predicting a good clinical response. PMID:29675276

Prevention System Mediation of Communities That Care Effects on Youth Outcomes

PubMed Central

Hawkins, J. David; Rhew, Isaac C.; Shapiro, Valerie B.; Abbott, Robert D.; Oesterle, Sabrina; Arthur, Michael W.; Briney, John S.; Catalano, Richard F.

2013-01-01

This study examined whether the significant intervention effects of the Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system on youth problem behaviors observed in a panel of eighth-grade students (Hawkins et al. Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine 163:789–798 2009) were mediated by community-level prevention system constructs posited in the CTC theory of change. Potential prevention system constructs included the community’s degree of (a) adoption of a science-based approach to prevention, (b) collaboration on prevention activities, (c) support for prevention, and (d) norms against adolescent drug use as reported by key community leaders in 24 communities. Higher levels of community adoption of a science-based approach to prevention and support for prevention in 2004 predicted significantly lower levels of youth problem behaviors in 2007, and higher levels of community norms against adolescent drug use predicted lower levels of youth drug use in 2007. Effects of the CTC intervention on youth problem behaviors by the end of eighth grade were mediated fully by community adoption of a science-based approach to prevention. No other significant mediated effects were found. Results support CTC’s theory of change that encourages communities to adopt a science- based approach to prevention as a primary mechanism for improving youth outcomes. PMID:23828448

Family history of diabetes modifies the effect of blood pressure for incident diabetes in Middle Eastern women: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

PubMed

Hatami, M; Hadaegh, F; Khalili, D; Sheikholeslami, F; Azizi, F

2012-02-01

Elevated blood pressure (BP) may lead to incident diabetes. However, data about the effect of different BP components on incident diabetes in Middle Eastern women is lacking. We evaluated systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) as independent predictors of diabetes in Iranian women. We performed a population-based prospective study among 3028 non-diabetic women, aged ≥20 years. Odds ratios (ORs) of diabetes were calculated for every 1 s.d. increase in SBP, DBP, PP and MAP. During ≈6 years of follow-up, 220 women developed diabetes. There were significant interactions between family history of diabetes and SBP, PP and MAP (P≤0.01) in predicting incident diabetes. In women without a family history of diabetes, all BP components were significantly associated with diabetes in the age-adjusted model; the risk factor-adjusted ORs were significant (P<0.05) for SBP, PP and MAP (1.30, 1.34 and 1.27, respectively) with similar predictive ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≈83%). In women with family history of diabetes, in the age-adjusted model, SBP, DBP and MAP were associated with diabetes; in multivariable model, they were not independent predictors of diabetes. In conclusion, in women without family history of diabetes, SBP, PP and MAP, were independent predictors of diabetes with almost similar predictive ability; hence, in the evaluation of the risk of BP components for prediction of diabetes, the presence of family history of diabetes should be considered.

Influence of polygenic risk scores on lipid levels and dyslipidemia in a psychiatric population receiving weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs.

PubMed

Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Lagares Santos, Patricia; Saigi Morgui, Nuria; Vandenberghe, Frederik; Glatard, Anaïs; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2017-12-01

Dyslipidemia represents a major health issue in psychiatry. We determined whether weighted polygenic risk scores (wPRSs) combining multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with lipid levels in the general population are associated with lipid levels [high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides] and/or dyslipidemia in patients receiving weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs. We also determined whether genetics improve the predictive power of dyslipidemia. The influence of wPRS on lipid levels was firstly assessed in a discovery psychiatric sample (n=332) and was then tested for replication in an independent psychiatric sample (n=140). The contribution of genetic markers to predict dyslipidemia was evaluated in the combined psychiatric sample. wPRSs were significantly associated with the four lipid traits in the discovery (P≤0.02) and in the replication sample (P≤0.03). Patients whose wPRS was higher than the median wPRS had significantly higher LDL, TC, and triglyceride levels (0.20, 0.32 and 0.26 mmol/l, respectively; P≤0.004) and significantly lower HDL levels (0.13 mmol/l; P<0.0001) compared with others. Adding wPRS to clinical data significantly improved dyslipidemia prediction of HDL (P=0.03) and a trend for improvement was observed for the prediction of TC dyslipidemia (P=0.08). Population-based wPRSs have thus significant effects on lipid levels in the psychiatric population. As genetics improved the predictive power of dyslipidemia development, only 24 patients need to be genotyped to prevent the development of one case of HDL hypocholesterolemia. If confirmed by further prospective investigations, the present results could be used for individualizing psychotropic treatment.

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation prediction method with shorter HRV sequences.

PubMed

Boon, K H; Khalil-Hani, M; Malarvili, M B; Sia, C W

2016-10-01

This paper proposes a method that predicts the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), using heart rate variability (HRV) segments that are shorter than those applied in existing methods, while maintaining good prediction accuracy. PAF is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the health risk of a patient, and the development of an accurate predictor of the onset of PAF is clinical important because it increases the possibility to stabilize (electrically) and prevent the onset of atrial arrhythmias with different pacing techniques. We investigate the effect of HRV features extracted from different lengths of HRV segments prior to PAF onset with the proposed PAF prediction method. The pre-processing stage of the predictor includes QRS detection, HRV quantification and ectopic beat correction. Time-domain, frequency-domain, non-linear and bispectrum features are then extracted from the quantified HRV. In the feature selection, the HRV feature set and classifier parameters are optimized simultaneously using an optimization procedure based on genetic algorithm (GA). Both full feature set and statistically significant feature subset are optimized by GA respectively. For the statistically significant feature subset, Mann-Whitney U test is used to filter non-statistical significance features that cannot pass the statistical test at 20% significant level. The final stage of our predictor is the classifier that is based on support vector machine (SVM). A 10-fold cross-validation is applied in performance evaluation, and the proposed method achieves 79.3% prediction accuracy using 15-minutes HRV segment. This accuracy is comparable to that achieved by existing methods that use 30-minutes HRV segments, most of which achieves accuracy of around 80%. More importantly, our method significantly outperforms those that applied segments shorter than 30 minutes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of health programs on breastfeeding and child mortality in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Anderson, K H

1984-01-01

Examining household behavior in Peninsular Malaysia, this study attempts to determine if the availability of certain government health programs significantly alters breastfeeding and if these changes in input prices significantly affect mortality rates and fertility decisions. To explain the interrelationships, an economic model of the demand for infant survival and fertility and the derived demand for breastfeeding is developed. Using household and community level data, the demand equations are then estimated and the results discussed in relation to the predictions of the model and the prospect of additional government inputs. The theoretical model predicts that, if income effects are small: a decline in the price of children (hospital distance) will increase fertility, decrease survival and reduce breastfeeding; a decline in the price of health goods inputs (hospital distance and sanitation) will reduce fertility and increase survival; and a decline in the price of contraceptives (family planning distance) will reduce fertility but increase survival and breastfeeding. The empirical results support some of the model's predictions. In communities with modern sanitation, breastfeeding was shorter on average, as predicted, but differences in mortality were not detected and fertility was actually higher. The latter effect can result from an income effect in the price decline that exceeds the cross substitution effect. Distance to a hospital was positively associated with breastfeeding length. This is expected if the effect of distance on the price of children exceeds the effect of distance on the price of survival. Hospital distance had no impact on either survival or fertility. Distance to a family planning clinic had no effect on breastfeeding or fertility but had a slight positive association with mortality. This positive relationship is expected if fertility and survival are substitutes. Parental schooling and race also are important in determining demand. As economic development proceeds and educational attainment increases, breastfeeding and fertility declined and survival increased. The Chinese, the wealthiest racial group, had lower fertility and mortality and breastfed less than Malays or Indians. The empirical results failed to support the prediction of differences in male and female survival. The results suggest some interesting implications. If breastfeeding has been declining in low income countries such as Malaysia as they develop, the culprit may be the economic development process itself, which increases the value of a woman's time and raises family income. The decline in breastfeeding does not necessarily imply a significant increase in infant mortality if good substitutes for breastfeeding exist. In addition, breastfeeding is highly substitutable with many government programs designed to reduce mortality. In designing policies which will bring about a decline in infant mortality rates, both cross substitution and joint production must be considered. Programs that can be most successful in reducing mortality will be the programs that are the least substitutable with breastfeeding.

New approach to predict photoallergic potentials of chemicals based on murine local lymph node assay.

PubMed

Maeda, Yosuke; Hirosaki, Haruka; Yamanaka, Hidenori; Takeyoshi, Masahiro

2018-05-23

Photoallergic dermatitis, caused by pharmaceuticals and other consumer products, is a very important issue in human health. However, S10 guidelines of the International Conference on Harmonization do not recommend the existing prediction methods for photoallergy because of their low predictability in human cases. We applied local lymph node assay (LLNA), a reliable, quantitative skin sensitization prediction test, to develop a new photoallergy prediction method. This method involves a three-step approach: (1) ultraviolet (UV) absorption analysis; (2) determination of no observed adverse effect level for skin phototoxicity based on LLNA; and (3) photoallergy evaluation based on LLNA. Photoallergic potential of chemicals was evaluated by comparing lymph node cell proliferation among groups treated with chemicals with minimal effect levels of skin sensitization and skin phototoxicity under UV irradiation (UV+) or non-UV irradiation (UV-). A case showing significant difference (P < .05) in lymph node cell proliferation rates between UV- and UV+ groups was considered positive for photoallergic reaction. After testing 13 chemicals, seven human photoallergens tested positive and the other six, with no evidence of causing photoallergic dermatitis or UV absorption, tested negative. Among these chemicals, both doxycycline hydrochloride and minocycline hydrochloride were tetracycline antibiotics with different photoallergic properties, and the new method clearly distinguished between the photoallergic properties of these chemicals. These findings suggested high predictability of our method; therefore, it is promising and effective in predicting human photoallergens. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Implementing Lumberjacks and Black Swans Into Model-Based Tools to Support Human-Automation Interaction.

PubMed

Sebok, Angelia; Wickens, Christopher D

2017-03-01

The objectives were to (a) implement theoretical perspectives regarding human-automation interaction (HAI) into model-based tools to assist designers in developing systems that support effective performance and (b) conduct validations to assess the ability of the models to predict operator performance. Two key concepts in HAI, the lumberjack analogy and black swan events, have been studied extensively. The lumberjack analogy describes the effects of imperfect automation on operator performance. In routine operations, an increased degree of automation supports performance, but in failure conditions, increased automation results in more significantly impaired performance. Black swans are the rare and unexpected failures of imperfect automation. The lumberjack analogy and black swan concepts have been implemented into three model-based tools that predict operator performance in different systems. These tools include a flight management system, a remotely controlled robotic arm, and an environmental process control system. Each modeling effort included a corresponding validation. In one validation, the software tool was used to compare three flight management system designs, which were ranked in the same order as predicted by subject matter experts. The second validation compared model-predicted operator complacency with empirical performance in the same conditions. The third validation compared model-predicted and empirically determined time to detect and repair faults in four automation conditions. The three model-based tools offer useful ways to predict operator performance in complex systems. The three tools offer ways to predict the effects of different automation designs on operator performance.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Neurobiological mechanisms underlying the blocking effect in aversive learning.

PubMed

Eippert, Falk; Gamer, Matthias; Büchel, Christian

2012-09-19

Current theories of classical conditioning assume that learning depends on the predictive relationship between events, not just on their temporal contiguity. Here we employ the classic experiment substantiating this reasoning-the blocking paradigm-in combination with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate whether human amygdala responses in aversive learning conform to these assumptions. In accordance with blocking, we demonstrate that significantly stronger behavioral and amygdala responses are evoked by conditioned stimuli that are predictive of the unconditioned stimulus than by conditioned stimuli that have received the same pairing with the unconditioned stimulus, yet have no predictive value. When studying the development of this effect, we not only observed that it was related to the strength of previous conditioned responses, but also that predictive compared with nonpredictive conditioned stimuli received more overt attention, as measured by fMRI-concurrent eye tracking, and that this went along with enhanced amygdala responses. We furthermore observed that prefrontal regions play a role in the development of the blocking effect: ventromedial prefrontal cortex (subgenual anterior cingulate) only exhibited responses when conditioned stimuli had to be established as nonpredictive for an outcome, whereas dorsolateral prefrontal cortex also showed responses when conditioned stimuli had to be established as predictive. Most importantly, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex connectivity to amygdala flexibly switched between positive and negative coupling, depending on the requirements posed by predictive relationships. Together, our findings highlight the role of predictive value in explaining amygdala responses and identify mechanisms that shape these responses in human fear conditioning.

A new method for enhancer prediction based on deep belief network.

PubMed

Bu, Hongda; Gan, Yanglan; Wang, Yang; Zhou, Shuigeng; Guan, Jihong

2017-10-16

Studies have shown that enhancers are significant regulatory elements to play crucial roles in gene expression regulation. Since enhancers are unrelated to the orientation and distance to their target genes, it is a challenging mission for scholars and researchers to accurately predicting distal enhancers. In the past years, with the high-throughout ChiP-seq technologies development, several computational techniques emerge to predict enhancers using epigenetic or genomic features. Nevertheless, the inconsistency of computational models across different cell-lines and the unsatisfactory prediction performance call for further research in this area. Here, we propose a new Deep Belief Network (DBN) based computational method for enhancer prediction, which is called EnhancerDBN. This method combines diverse features, composed of DNA sequence compositional features, DNA methylation and histone modifications. Our computational results indicate that 1) EnhancerDBN outperforms 13 existing methods in prediction, and 2) GC content and DNA methylation can serve as relevant features for enhancer prediction. Deep learning is effective in boosting the performance of enhancer prediction.

Thermal stability of mullite RMn₂O₅ (R  =  Bi, Y, Pr, Sm or Gd): combined density functional theory and experimental study.

PubMed

Li, Chenzhe; Thampy, Sampreetha; Zheng, Yongping; Kweun, Joshua M; Ren, Yixin; Chan, Julia Y; Kim, Hanchul; Cho, Maenghyo; Kim, Yoon Young; Hsu, Julia W P; Cho, Kyeongjae

2016-03-31

Understanding and effectively predicting the thermal stability of ternary transition metal oxides with heavy elements using first principle simulations are vital for understanding performance of advanced materials. In this work, we have investigated the thermal stability of mullite RMn2O5 (R  =  Bi, Pr, Sm, or Gd) structures by constructing temperature phase diagrams using an efficient mixed generalized gradient approximation (GGA) and the GGA  +  U method. Simulation predicted stability regions without corrections on heavy elements show a 4-200 K underestimation compared to our experimental results. We have found the number of d/f electrons in the heavy elements shows a linear relationship with the prediction deviation. Further correction on the strongly correlated electrons in heavy elements could significantly reduce the prediction deviations. Our corrected simulation results demonstrate that further correction of R-site elements in RMn2O5 could effectively reduce the underestimation of the density functional theory-predicted decomposition temperature to within 30 K. Therefore, it could produce an accurate thermal stability prediction for complex ternary transition metal oxide compounds with heavy elements.

Investigating the Interaction Between Sleep Symptoms of Arousal and Acquired Capability in Predicting Suicidality.

PubMed

Hochard, Kevin D; Heym, Nadja; Townsend, Ellen

2017-06-01

Heightened arousal significantly interacts with acquired capability to predict suicidality. We explore this interaction with insomnia and nightmares independently of waking state arousal symptoms, and test predictions of the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide (IPTS) and Escape Theory in relation to these sleep arousal symptoms. Findings from our e-survey (n = 540) supported the IPTS over models of Suicide as Escape. Sleep-specific measurements of arousal (insomnia and nightmares) showed no main effect, yet interacted with acquired capability to predict increased suicidality. The explained variance in suicidality by the interaction (1%-2%) using sleep-specific measures was comparable to variance explained by interactions previously reported in the literature using measurements composed of a mix of waking and sleep state arousal symptoms. Similarly, when entrapment (inability to escape) was included in models, main effects of sleep symptoms arousal were not detected yet interacted with entrapment to predict suicidality. We discuss findings in relation to treatment options suggesting that sleep-specific interventions be considered for the long-term management of at-risk individuals. © 2016 The American Association of Suicidology.

The predictive effect of inflammatory markers and lipid accumulation product index on clinical symptoms associated with polycystic ovary syndrome in nonobese adolescents and younger aged women.

PubMed

Tola, Esra Nur; Yalcin, Serenat Eris; Dugan, Nadiye

2017-07-01

The aim of our study is to analyse the inflammatory markers and lipid accumulation product (LAP) index in nonobese adolescents and younger aged women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) compared with age and body mass index (BMI)-matched healthy controls and to determine whether the investigated parameters are potential markers for the etiopathogenesis of PCOS. We also aim to determine whether these inflammatory markers are predictive for developing some clinical implications, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and insulin resistance (IR), associated with PCOS. A total of 34 adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS, and 33 age and BMI-matched healthy controls were recruited for our study. All participants were nonobese (BMI<25). Neopterin (NEO), C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and complete blood parameters were assessed. LAP index and homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) were calculated; anthropometric, clinical and biochemical parameters were also recorded. Serum NEO, CRP levels and LAP index were significantly increased in nonobese adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS compared to healthy controls. We could not found any predictive effect of investigated inflammatory markers and LAP index on CVD risk among PCOS patients after adjustment for abdominal obesity. We also found a positive predictive effect of WBC and a negative predictive effect of lymphocytes on IR in PCOS patients after adjustment for abdominal obesity. We did not find any predictor effect of NEO on IR, but it was a positive predictive marker for an elevated HOMA-IR index. Elevated NEO, CRP levels and LAP index could have potential roles in the etiopathogenesis of PCOS in nonobese adolescents and younger aged females,NEO could be a predictive marker for elevated HOMA-IR index, and WBC and lymphocytes could be predictive for the development of IR among nonobese adolescents and younger aged females with PCOS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting recidivism with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) in community-supervised male and female federal offenders.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D; Lowenkamp, Christopher T

2016-06-01

Higher order scores derived from the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS; Walters, 1995) have been found to predict recidivism in released prison inmates with effect sizes in the low-moderate to medium range. The current study sought to determine whether the PICTS is capable of predicting general recidivism in a sample of 81,881 male and 14,519 female offenders on federal probation or supervised release. Results indicated that the PICTS General Criminal Thinking, Proactive, and Reactive scores and 6 of the 7 thinking style scales predicted recidivism in follow-ups of 6 or more months, 12 or more months, and 24 or more months with effect sizes in the low-moderate to medium range. The effect sizes were reduced to small and low-moderate, respectively, when age and prior arrests were controlled for in a series of partial correlations. It was also noted that the PICTS General Criminal Thinking score contributed significant diagnostic information to recidivism prediction in both males and females above and beyond the information provided by a comprehensive risk assessment procedure. These results indicate that the PICTS may be a useful adjunct to other risk assessment procedures in providing comprehensive risk prediction and management services to offenders under community supervision. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Antepartum and postpartum exposure to maternal depression: different effects on different adolescent outcomes.

PubMed

Hay, Dale F; Pawlby, Susan; Waters, Cerith S; Sharp, Deborah

2008-10-01

Postpartum depression (PPD) is considered a major public health problem that conveys risk to mothers and offspring. Yet PPD typically occurs in the context of a lifelong episodic illness, and its putative effects might derive from the child's exposure to other episodes, in pregnancy or later childhood. The aim of the study is to test two hypotheses: (1) that the effects of PPD on adolescent outcomes are partly explained by antepartum depression (APD) and (2) that the effects of APD and PPD are both explained by later exposure to the mother's depression. A random sample of 178 antenatal patients was drawn from two general medical practices in South London; 171 gave birth to live infants, and 150 (88%) were assessed at 3 months post partum, with 121 of their offspring (81%) assessed for emotional disorders (ED), disruptive behaviour disorders (DBD) and IQ, at 11 and 16 years of age. When APD and subsequent episodes of depression were taken into account, PPD had a significant effect on adolescent IQ, especially for boys, but did not predict psychopathology. ED and DBD in adolescence were predicted by the extent of exposure to maternal depression after 3 months post partum; a significant effect of APD on ED in girls was accounted for by later exposure to the mother's illness. Mothers' symptoms of anxiety, smoking and alcohol use in pregnancy did not predict adolescent outcomes, once maternal depression was taken into account. Some effects attributed to mothers' mental health problems in pregnancy or post partum may be mediated by cumulative exposure to maternal illness, probably reflecting genetic influence and gene-environment correlation. However, PPD has a direct effect on cognition. Clinicians should endeavour to identify women with depression in pregnancy (31% of this sample) and help them to manage their lifelong illness.

Individualized predictions of time to menopause using multiple measurements of antimüllerian hormone.

PubMed

Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Ramezani Tehrani, Fahime; Chenouri, Shojaeddin; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-08-01

The ability of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) to predict age at menopause has been reported in several studies, and a decrease in AMH level has been found to increase the probability of menopause. The rate of decline varies among women, and there is also a variability of decline between women's cycles. As a result, individualized evaluation is required to accurately predict time of menopause. To this end, we have used the AMH trajectories of individual women to predict each one's age at menopause. From a cohort study, 266 women (ages 20-50 y) who had regular and predictable menstrual cycles at the initiation of the study were randomly selected from among 1,265 women for multiple AMH measurements. Participants were visited at approximately 3-year intervals and followed for an average of 6.5 years. Individual likelihood of menopause was predicted by fitting the shared random-effects joint model to the baseline covariates and the specific AMH trajectory of each woman. In total, 23.7% of the women reached menopause during the follow-up period. The estimated mean (SD) AMH concentration at the time of menopause was 0.05 ng/mL (0.06 ng/mL), compared with 1.36 ng/mL (1.85 ng/mL) for those with a regular menstrual cycle at their last assessment. The decline rate in the AMH level varied among age groups, and age was a significant prognostic factor for AMH level (P < 0.001). Adjusting for age and body mass index, each woman had her own specific AMH trajectory. Lower AMH and older age had significant effects on the onset of menopause. Individualized prediction of time to menopause was obtained from the fitted model. Longitudinal measurements of AMH will enable physicians to individualize the prediction of menopause, thereby facilitating counseling on the timing of childbearing or medical management of health issues associated with menopause.

The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

2011-12-01

This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Additive genetic risk from five serotonin system polymorphisms interacts with interpersonal stress to predict depression.

PubMed

Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Stroud, Catherine B; Mineka, Susan; Zinbarg, Richard E; Adam, Emma K; Redei, Eva E; Hammen, Constance; Craske, Michelle G

2015-11-01

Behavioral genetic research supports polygenic models of depression in which many genetic variations each contribute a small amount of risk, and prevailing diathesis-stress models suggest gene-environment interactions (G×E). Multilocus profile scores of additive risk offer an approach that is consistent with polygenic models of depression risk. In a first demonstration of this approach in a G×E predicting depression, we created an additive multilocus profile score from 5 serotonin system polymorphisms (1 each in the genes HTR1A, HTR2A, HTR2C, and 2 in TPH2). Analyses focused on 2 forms of interpersonal stress as environmental risk factors. Using 5 years of longitudinal diagnostic and life stress interviews from 387 emerging young adults in the Youth Emotion Project, survival analyses show that this multilocus profile score interacts with major interpersonal stressful life events to predict major depressive episode onsets (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.815, p = .007). Simultaneously, there was a significant protective effect of the profile score without a recent event (HR = 0.83, p = .030). The G×E effect with interpersonal chronic stress was not significant (HR = 1.15, p = .165). Finally, effect sizes for genetic factors examined ignoring stress suggested such an approach could lead to overlooking or misinterpreting genetic effects. Both the G×E effect and the protective simple main effect were replicated in a sample of early adolescent girls (N = 105). We discuss potential benefits of the multilocus genetic profile score approach and caveats for future research. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

PubMed

Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-03-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evapotranspiration from drained wetlands: drivers, modeling, storage functions, and restoration implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Wu, C. L.; Shrestha, N.

2017-12-01

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of wetland and watershed water budgets. The effect of wetland drainage on ET is not well understood. We tested whether the current understanding of insignificant effect of drainage on ET in the temperate region wetlands applies to those in the sub-tropics. Eddy covariance (EC) based ET measurements were made for two years at two previously drained and geographically close wetlands in the Everglades region of Florida. One wetland was significantly drained with 97% of its storage capacity lost. The other was a more functional wetland with 42% of storage capacity lost. Annual average ET at the significantly drained wetland was 836 mm, 34% less than the function wetland (1271 mm) and the difference was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Such differences in wetland ET in the same climatic region have not been observed. The difference in ET was mainly due to drainage driven differences in inundation and associated effects on net radiation (Rn) and local relative humidity. Two daily ET models, a regression (r2 = 0.80) and a Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) model (r2 = 0.84), were developed with the latter being more robust. These models, when used in conjunction with hydrologic models, improved ET predictions for drained wetlands. Predictions from an integrated model showed that more intensely drained wetlands at higher elevation should be targeted for restoration of downstream flows (flooding) because they have the ability to loose higher water volume through ET which increases available water storage capacity of wetlands. Daily ET models can predict changes in ET for improved evaluation of basin-scale effects of restoration programs and climate change scenarios.

Dose-distance metric that predicts late rectal bleeding in patients receiving radical prostate external-beam radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Richard; Chan, Elisa K.; Kosztyla, Robert; Liu, Mitchell; Moiseenko, Vitali

2012-12-01

The relationship between rectal dose distribution and the incidence of late rectal complications following external-beam radiotherapy has been previously studied using dose-volume histograms or dose-surface histograms. However, they do not account for the spatial dose distribution. This study proposes a metric based on both surface dose and distance that can predict the incidence of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy. One hundred and forty-four patients treated with radical radiotherapy for prostate cancer were prospectively followed to record the incidence of grade ≥2 rectal bleeding. Radiotherapy plans were used to evaluate a dose-distance metric that accounts for the dose and its spatial distribution on the rectal surface, characterized by a logistic weighting function with slope a and inflection point d0. This was compared to the effective dose obtained from dose-surface histograms, characterized by the parameter n which describes sensitivity to hot spots. The log-rank test was used to determine statistically significant (p < 0.05) cut-off values for the dose-distance metric and effective dose that predict for the occurrence of rectal bleeding. For the dose-distance metric, only d0 = 25 and 30 mm combined with a > 5 led to statistical significant cut-offs. For the effective dose metric, only values of n in the range 0.07-0.35 led to statistically significant cut-offs. The proposed dose-distance metric is a predictor of rectal bleeding in prostate cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. Both the dose-distance metric and the effective dose metric indicate that the incidence of grade ≥2 rectal bleeding is sensitive to localized damage to the rectal surface.

Impact of job characteristics on psychological health of Chinese single working women.

PubMed

Yeung, D Y; Tang, C S

2001-01-01

This study aims at investigating the impact of individual and contextual job characteristics of control, psychological and physical demand, and security on psychological distress of 193 Chinese single working women in Hong Kong. The mediating role of job satisfaction in the job characteristics-distress relation is also assessed. Multiple regression analysis results show that job satisfaction mediates the effects of job control and security in predicting psychological distress; whereas psychological job demand has an independent effect on mental distress after considering the effect of job satisfaction. This main effect model indicates that psychological distress is best predicted by small company size, high psychological job demand, and low job satisfaction. Results from a separate regression analysis fails to support the overall combined effect of job demand-control on psychological distress. However, a significant physical job demand-control interaction effect on mental distress is noted, which reduces slightly after controlling the effect of job satisfaction.

Factors related to tinnitus and hyperacusis handicap in older people.

PubMed

Aazh, Hashir; Lammaing, Karen; Moore, Brian C J

2017-09-01

The aim was to assess factors related to tinnitus and hyperacusis handicap in older people. Retrospective cross-sectional. Data were gathered for 184 patients with an average age of 69 years. Tinnitus handicap as measured via the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory (THI) was significantly predicted by tinnitus annoyance as measured via the visual analogue scale (VAS) (regression coefficient, b = 2.9, p < 0.001) and the effect of tinnitus on the patient's life as measured via the VAS (b = 3.9, p < 0.001). Hyperacusis handicap as measured via the Hyperacusis Questionnaire (HQ) was significantly predicted by the score on the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) (b = 0.8, p < 0.001) and to a small extent by the THI score (b = 0.07, p = 0.048). Insomnia scores as measured via the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) were significantly predicted by scores on the depression subscale of the HADS (b = 0.46, p = 0.007). Since tinnitus annoyance significantly predicts tinnitus handicap, it is important to explore factors associated with annoyance that may be useful in designing appropriate rehabilitative interventions aimed at reducing tinnitus handicap in older people. Future studies should explore whether hyperacusis and insomnia in older people with tinnitus need to be managed in conjunction with treatment for depression.

Impact of experimental design on PET radiomics in predicting somatic mutation status.

PubMed

Yip, Stephen S F; Parmar, Chintan; Kim, John; Huynh, Elizabeth; Mak, Raymond H; Aerts, Hugo J W L

2017-12-01

PET-based radiomic features have demonstrated great promises in predicting genetic data. However, various experimental parameters can influence the feature extraction pipeline, and hence, Here, we investigated how experimental settings affect the performance of radiomic features in predicting somatic mutation status in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. 348 NSCLC patients with somatic mutation testing and diagnostic PET images were included in our analysis. Radiomic feature extractions were analyzed for varying voxel sizes, filters and bin widths. 66 radiomic features were evaluated. The performance of features in predicting mutations status was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC). The influence of experimental parameters on feature predictability was quantified as the relative difference between the minimum and maximum AUC (δ). The large majority of features (n=56, 85%) were significantly predictive for EGFR mutation status (AUC≥0.61). 29 radiomic features significantly predicted EGFR mutations and were robust to experimental settings with δ Overall <5%. The overall influence (δ Overall ) of the voxel size, filter and bin width for all features ranged from 5% to 15%, respectively. For all features, none of the experimental designs was predictive of KRAS+ from KRAS- (AUC≤0.56). The predictability of 29 radiomic features was robust to the choice of experimental settings; however, these settings need to be carefully chosen for all other features. The combined effect of the investigated processing methods could be substantial and must be considered. Optimized settings that will maximize the predictive performance of individual radiomic features should be investigated in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In silico prediction of drug-induced myelotoxicity by using Naïve Bayes method.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui; Yu, Peng; Zhang, Teng-Guo; Kang, Yan-Li; Zhao, Xiao; Li, Yuan-Yuan; He, Jia-Hui; Zhang, Ji

2015-11-01

Drug-induced myelotoxicity usually leads to decrease the production of platelets, red cells, and white cells. Thus, early identification and characterization of myelotoxicity hazard in drug development is very necessary. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a prediction model of drug-induced myelotoxicity by using a Naïve Bayes classifier. For comparison, other prediction models based on support vector machine and single-hidden-layer feed-forward neural network  methods were also established. Among all the prediction models, the Naïve Bayes classification model showed the best prediction performance, which offered an average overall prediction accuracy of [Formula: see text] for the training set and [Formula: see text] for the external test set. The significant contributions of this study are that we first developed a Naïve Bayes classification model of drug-induced myelotoxicity adverse effect using a larger scale dataset, which could be employed for the prediction of drug-induced myelotoxicity. In addition, several important molecular descriptors and substructures of myelotoxic compounds have been identified, which should be taken into consideration in the design of new candidate compounds to produce safer and more effective drugs, ultimately reducing the attrition rate in later stages of drug development.

The influence of anthropogenic edge effects on primate populations and their habitat in a fragmented rainforest in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Bolt, Laura M; Schreier, Amy L; Voss, Kristofor A; Sheehan, Elizabeth A; Barrickman, Nancy L; Pryor, Nathaniel P; Barton, Matthew C

2018-05-01

When a forest is fragmented, this increases the amount of forest edge relative to the interior. Edge effects can lead to loss of animal and plant species and decreased plant biomass near forest edges. We examined the influence of an anthropogenic forest edge comprising cattle pasture, coconut plantations, and human settlement on the mantled howler (Alouatta palliata), white-faced capuchin (Cebus capucinus), Central American spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), and plant populations at La Suerte Biological Research Station (LSBRS), Costa Rica. We predicted that there would be lower monkey encounter rate, mean tree species richness, and diameter at breast height (DBH) in forest edge versus interior, and that monkeys would show species-specific responses to edge based on diet, body size, and canopy height preferences. Specifically, we predicted that howler monkeys would show positive or neutral edge effects due to their flexible folivorous diet, large body size, and preference for high canopy, capuchins would show positive edge effects due to their diverse diet, small body size, and preference for low to middle canopy, and spider monkeys would show negative edge effects due their reliance on ripe fruit, large body size, and preference for high upper canopy. We conducted population and vegetation surveys along edge and interior transects at LSBRS. Contrary to predictions, total monkey encounter rate did not vary between the forest edge and forest interior. Furthermore, all three species showed neutral edge effects with no significant differences in encounter rate between forest edge and interior. Interior transects had significantly higher mean tree species richness than edge transects, and interior trees had greater DBH than edge trees, although this difference was not significant. These results suggest that forest edges negatively impact plant populations at La Suerte but that the monkeys are able to withstand these differences in vegetation.

Optimizing the stimulus presentation paradigm design for the P300-based brain-computer interface using performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainsah, B. O.; Reeves, G.; Collins, L. M.; Throckmorton, C. S.

2017-08-01

Objective. The role of a brain-computer interface (BCI) is to discern a user’s intended message or action by extracting and decoding relevant information from brain signals. Stimulus-driven BCIs, such as the P300 speller, rely on detecting event-related potentials (ERPs) in response to a user attending to relevant or target stimulus events. However, this process is error-prone because the ERPs are embedded in noisy electroencephalography (EEG) data, representing a fundamental problem in communication of the uncertainty in the information that is received during noisy transmission. A BCI can be modeled as a noisy communication system and an information-theoretic approach can be exploited to design a stimulus presentation paradigm to maximize the information content that is presented to the user. However, previous methods that focused on designing error-correcting codes failed to provide significant performance improvements due to underestimating the effects of psycho-physiological factors on the P300 ERP elicitation process and a limited ability to predict online performance with their proposed methods. Maximizing the information rate favors the selection of stimulus presentation patterns with increased target presentation frequency, which exacerbates refractory effects and negatively impacts performance within the context of an oddball paradigm. An information-theoretic approach that seeks to understand the fundamental trade-off between information rate and reliability is desirable. Approach. We developed a performance-based paradigm (PBP) by tuning specific parameters of the stimulus presentation paradigm to maximize performance while minimizing refractory effects. We used a probabilistic-based performance prediction method as an evaluation criterion to select a final configuration of the PBP. Main results. With our PBP, we demonstrate statistically significant improvements in online performance, both in accuracy and spelling rate, compared to the conventional row-column paradigm. Significance. By accounting for refractory effects, an information-theoretic approach can be exploited to significantly improve BCI performance across a wide range of performance levels.