Behavioral Economics: A New Lens for Understanding Genomic Decision Making.

PubMed

Moore, Scott Emory; Ulbrich, Holley H; Hepburn, Kenneth; Holaday, Bonnie; Mayo, Rachel; Sharp, Julia; Pruitt, Rosanne H

2018-05-01

This article seeks to take the next step in examining the insights that nurses and other healthcare providers can derive from applying behavioral economic concepts to support genomic decision making. As genomic science continues to permeate clinical practice, nurses must continue to adapt practice to meet new challenges. Decisions associated with genomics are often not simple and dichotomous in nature. They can be complex and challenging for all involved. This article offers an introduction to behavioral economics as a possible tool to help support patients', families', and caregivers' decision making related to genomics. Using current writings from nursing, ethics, behavioral economic, and other healthcare scholars, we review key concepts of behavioral economics and discuss their relevance to supporting genomic decision making. Behavioral economic concepts-particularly relativity, deliberation, and choice architecture-are specifically examined as new ways to view the complexities of genomic decision making. Each concept is explored through patient decision making and clinical practice examples. This article also discusses next steps and practice implications for further development of the behavioral economic lens in nursing. Behavioral economics provides valuable insight into the unique nature of genetic decision-making practices. Nurses are often a source of information and support for patients during clinical decision making. This article seeks to offer behavioral economic concepts as a framework for understanding and examining the unique nature of genomic decision making. As genetic and genomic testing become more common in practice, it will continue to grow in importance for nurses to be able to support the autonomous decision making of patients, their families, and caregivers. © 2018 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Expert System Shells for Rapid Clinical Decision Support Module Development: An ESTA Demonstration of a Simple Rule-Based System for the Diagnosis of Vaginal Discharge

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Objectives This study demonstrates the feasibility of using expert system shells for rapid clinical decision support module development. Methods A readily available expert system shell was used to build a simple rule-based system for the crude diagnosis of vaginal discharge. Pictures and 'canned text explanations' are extensively used throughout the program to enhance its intuitiveness and educational dimension. All the steps involved in developing the system are documented. Results The system runs under Microsoft Windows and is available as a free download at http://healthcybermap.org/vagdisch.zip (the distribution archive includes both the program's executable and the commented knowledge base source as a text document). The limitations of the demonstration system, such as the lack of provisions for assessing uncertainty or various degrees of severity of a sign or symptom, are discussed in detail. Ways of improving the system, such as porting it to the Web and packaging it as an app for smartphones and tablets, are also presented. Conclusions An easy-to-use expert system shell enables clinicians to rapidly become their own 'knowledge engineers' and develop concise evidence-based decision support modules of simple to moderate complexity, targeting clinical practitioners, medical and nursing students, as well as patients, their lay carers and the general public (where appropriate). In the spirit of the social Web, it is hoped that an online repository can be created to peer review, share and re-use knowledge base modules covering various clinical problems and algorithms, as a service to the clinical community. PMID:23346475

Designing a data-driven decision support tool for nurse scheduling in the emergency department: a case study of a southern New Jersey emergency department.

PubMed

Otegbeye, Mojisola; Scriber, Roslyn; Ducoin, Donna; Glasofer, Amy

2015-01-01

A health system serving Burlington and Camden Counties, New Jersey, sought to improve labor productivity for its emergency departments, with emphasis on optimizing nursing staff schedules. Using historical emergency department visit data and operating constraints, a decision support tool was designed to recommend the number of emergency nurses needed in each hour for each day of the week. The pilot emergency department nurse managers used the decision support tool's recommendations to redeploy nurse hours from weekends into a float pool to support periods of demand spikes on weekdays. Productivity improved significantly, with no unfavorable impact on patient throughput, and patient and staff satisfaction. Today's emergency department manager can leverage the increasing ease of access to the emergency department information system's data repository to successfully design a simple but effective tool to support the alignment of its nursing schedule with demand patterns. Copyright © 2015 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A programmable rules engine to provide clinical decision support using HTML forms.

PubMed

Heusinkveld, J; Geissbuhler, A; Sheshelidze, D; Miller, R

1999-01-01

The authors have developed a simple method for specifying rules to be applied to information on HTML forms. This approach allows clinical experts, who lack the programming expertise needed to write CGI scripts, to construct and maintain domain-specific knowledge and ordering capabilities within WizOrder, the order-entry and decision support system used at Vanderbilt Hospital. The clinical knowledge base maintainers use HTML editors to create forms and spreadsheet programs for rule entry. A test environment has been developed which uses Netscape to display forms; the production environment displays forms using an embedded browser.

Assessing an AI knowledge-base for asymptomatic liver diseases.

PubMed

Babic, A; Mathiesen, U; Hedin, K; Bodemar, G; Wigertz, O

1998-01-01

Discovering not yet seen knowledge from clinical data is of importance in the field of asymptomatic liver diseases. Avoidance of liver biopsy which is used as the ultimate confirmation of diagnosis by making the decision based on relevant laboratory findings only, would be considered an essential support. The system based on Quinlan's ID3 algorithm was simple and efficient in extracting the sought knowledge. Basic principles of applying the AI systems are therefore described and complemented with medical evaluation. Some of the diagnostic rules were found to be useful as decision algorithms i.e. they could be directly applied in clinical work and made a part of the knowledge-base of the Liver Guide, an automated decision support system.

Hybrid Method for Mobile learning Cooperative: Study of Timor Leste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Costa Tavares, Ofelia Cizela; Suyoto; Pranowo

2018-02-01

In the modern world today the decision support system is very useful to help in solving a problem, so this study discusses the learning process of savings and loan cooperatives in Timor Leste. The purpose of the observation is that the people of Timor Leste are still in the process of learning the use DSS for good saving and loan cooperative process. Based on existing research on the Timor Leste community on credit cooperatives, a mobile application will be built that will help the cooperative learning process in East Timorese society. The methods used for decision making are AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) and SAW (simple additive Weighting) method to see the result of each criterion and the weight of the value. The result of this research is mobile leaning cooperative in decision support system by using SAW and AHP method. Originality Value: Changed the two methods of mobile application development using AHP and SAW methods to help the decision support system process of a savings and credit cooperative in Timor Leste.

Simple heuristics in over-the-counter drug choices: a new hint for medical education and practice.

PubMed

Riva, Silvia; Monti, Marco; Antonietti, Alessandro

2011-01-01

Over-the-counter (OTC) drugs are widely available and often purchased by consumers without advice from a health care provider. Many people rely on self-management of medications to treat common medical conditions. Although OTC medications are regulated by the National and the International Health and Drug Administration, many people are unaware of proper dosing, side effects, adverse drug reactions, and possible medication interactions. This study examined how subjects make their decisions to select an OTC drug, evaluating the role of cognitive heuristics which are simple and adaptive rules that help the decision-making process of people in everyday contexts. By analyzing 70 subjects' information-search and decision-making behavior when selecting OTC drugs, we examined the heuristics they applied in order to assess whether simple decision-making processes were also accurate and relevant. Subjects were tested with a sequence of two experimental tests based on a computerized Java system devised to analyze participants' choices in a virtual environment. We found that subjects' information-search behavior reflected the use of fast and frugal heuristics. In addition, although the heuristics which correctly predicted subjects' decisions implied significantly fewer cues on average than the subjects did in the information-search task, they were accurate in describing order of information search. A simple combination of a fast and frugal tree and a tallying rule predicted more than 78% of subjects' decisions. The current emphasis in health care is to shift some responsibility onto the consumer through expansion of self medication. To know which cognitive mechanisms are behind the choice of OTC drugs is becoming a relevant purpose of current medical education. These findings have implications both for the validity of simple heuristics describing information searches in the field of OTC drug choices and for current medical education, which has to prepare competent health specialists to orientate and support the choices of their patients.

Simple heuristics in over-the-counter drug choices: a new hint for medical education and practice

PubMed Central

Riva, Silvia; Monti, Marco; Antonietti, Alessandro

2011-01-01

Introduction Over-the-counter (OTC) drugs are widely available and often purchased by consumers without advice from a health care provider. Many people rely on self-management of medications to treat common medical conditions. Although OTC medications are regulated by the National and the International Health and Drug Administration, many people are unaware of proper dosing, side effects, adverse drug reactions, and possible medication interactions. Purpose This study examined how subjects make their decisions to select an OTC drug, evaluating the role of cognitive heuristics which are simple and adaptive rules that help the decision-making process of people in everyday contexts. Subjects and methods By analyzing 70 subjects’ information-search and decision-making behavior when selecting OTC drugs, we examined the heuristics they applied in order to assess whether simple decision-making processes were also accurate and relevant. Subjects were tested with a sequence of two experimental tests based on a computerized Java system devised to analyze participants’ choices in a virtual environment. Results We found that subjects’ information-search behavior reflected the use of fast and frugal heuristics. In addition, although the heuristics which correctly predicted subjects’ decisions implied significantly fewer cues on average than the subjects did in the information-search task, they were accurate in describing order of information search. A simple combination of a fast and frugal tree and a tallying rule predicted more than 78% of subjects’ decisions. Conclusion The current emphasis in health care is to shift some responsibility onto the consumer through expansion of self medication. To know which cognitive mechanisms are behind the choice of OTC drugs is becoming a relevant purpose of current medical education. These findings have implications both for the validity of simple heuristics describing information searches in the field of OTC drug choices and for current medical education, which has to prepare competent health specialists to orientate and support the choices of their patients. PMID:23745077

Forecasting runoff from Pennsylvania landscapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Identifying sites prone to surface runoff has been a cornerstone of conservation and nutrient management programs, relying upon site assessment tools that support strategic, as opposed to operational, decision making. We sought to develop simple, empirical models to represent two highly different me...

Heuristics: foundations for a novel approach to medical decision making.

PubMed

Bodemer, Nicolai; Hanoch, Yaniv; Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V

2015-03-01

Medical decision-making is a complex process that often takes place during uncertainty, that is, when knowledge, time, and resources are limited. How can we ensure good decisions? We present research on heuristics-simple rules of thumb-and discuss how medical decision-making can benefit from these tools. We challenge the common view that heuristics are only second-best solutions by showing that they can be more accurate, faster, and easier to apply in comparison to more complex strategies. Using the example of fast-and-frugal decision trees, we illustrate how heuristics can be studied and implemented in the medical context. Finally, we suggest how a heuristic-friendly culture supports the study and application of heuristics as complementary strategies to existing decision rules.

Invited review: Helping dairy farmers to improve economic performance utilizing data-driving decision support tools.

PubMed

Cabrera, V E

2018-01-01

The objective of this review paper is to describe the development and application of a suite of more than 40 computerized dairy farm decision support tools contained at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW) Dairy Management website http://DairyMGT.info. These data-driven decision support tools are aimed to help dairy farmers improve their decision-making, environmental stewardship and economic performance. Dairy farm systems are highly dynamic in which changing market conditions and prices, evolving policies and environmental restrictions together with every time more variable climate conditions determine performance. Dairy farm systems are also highly integrated with heavily interrelated components such as the dairy herd, soils, crops, weather and management. Under these premises, it is critical to evaluate a dairy farm following a dynamic integrated system approach. For this approach, it is crucial to use meaningful data records, which are every time more available. These data records should be used within decision support tools for optimal decision-making and economic performance. Decision support tools in the UW-Dairy Management website (http://DairyMGT.info) had been developed using combination and adaptation of multiple methods together with empirical techniques always with the primary goal for these tools to be: (1) highly user-friendly, (2) using the latest software and computer technologies, (3) farm and user specific, (4) grounded on the best scientific information available, (5) remaining relevant throughout time and (6) providing fast, concrete and simple answers to complex farmers' questions. DairyMGT.info is a translational innovative research website in various areas of dairy farm management that include nutrition, reproduction, calf and heifer management, replacement, price risk and environment. This paper discusses the development and application of 20 selected (http://DairyMGT.info) decision support tools.

Has your greenhouse gone virtual?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Virtual Grower is a free decision-support software program available from USDA-ARS that allows growers to build a virtual greenhouse. It was initially designed to help greenhouse growers estimate heating costs and conduct simple simulations to figure out where heat savings could be achieved. Featu...

A programmable rules engine to provide clinical decision support using HTML forms.

PubMed Central

Heusinkveld, J.; Geissbuhler, A.; Sheshelidze, D.; Miller, R.

1999-01-01

The authors have developed a simple method for specifying rules to be applied to information on HTML forms. This approach allows clinical experts, who lack the programming expertise needed to write CGI scripts, to construct and maintain domain-specific knowledge and ordering capabilities within WizOrder, the order-entry and decision support system used at Vanderbilt Hospital. The clinical knowledge base maintainers use HTML editors to create forms and spreadsheet programs for rule entry. A test environment has been developed which uses Netscape to display forms; the production environment displays forms using an embedded browser. Images Figure 1 PMID:10566470

Using old technology to implement modern computer-aided decision support for primary diabetes care.

PubMed Central

Hunt, D. L.; Haynes, R. B.; Morgan, D.

2001-01-01

BACKGROUND: Implementation rates of interventions known to be beneficial for people with diabetes mellitus are often suboptimal. Computer-aided decision support systems (CDSSs) can improve these rates. The complexity of establishing a fully integrated electronic medical record that provides decision support, however, often prevents their use. OBJECTIVE: To develop a CDSS for diabetes care that can be easily introduced into primary care settings and diabetes clinics. THE SYSTEM: The CDSS uses fax-machine-based optical character recognition software for acquiring patient information. Simple, 1-page paper forms, completed by patients or health practitioners, are faxed to a central location. The information is interpreted and recorded in a database. This initiates a routine that matches the information against a knowledge base so that patient-specific recommendations can be generated. These are formatted and faxed back within 4-5 minutes. IMPLEMENTATION: The system is being introduced into 2 diabetes clinics. We are collecting information on frequency of use of the system, as well as satisfaction with the information provided. CONCLUSION: Computer-aided decision support can be provided in any setting with a fax machine, without the need for integrated electronic medical records or computerized data-collection devices. PMID:11825194

Using old technology to implement modern computer-aided decision support for primary diabetes care.

PubMed

Hunt, D L; Haynes, R B; Morgan, D

2001-01-01

Implementation rates of interventions known to be beneficial for people with diabetes mellitus are often suboptimal. Computer-aided decision support systems (CDSSs) can improve these rates. The complexity of establishing a fully integrated electronic medical record that provides decision support, however, often prevents their use. To develop a CDSS for diabetes care that can be easily introduced into primary care settings and diabetes clinics. THE SYSTEM: The CDSS uses fax-machine-based optical character recognition software for acquiring patient information. Simple, 1-page paper forms, completed by patients or health practitioners, are faxed to a central location. The information is interpreted and recorded in a database. This initiates a routine that matches the information against a knowledge base so that patient-specific recommendations can be generated. These are formatted and faxed back within 4-5 minutes. The system is being introduced into 2 diabetes clinics. We are collecting information on frequency of use of the system, as well as satisfaction with the information provided. Computer-aided decision support can be provided in any setting with a fax machine, without the need for integrated electronic medical records or computerized data-collection devices.

Enhanced subgenual cingulate response to altruistic decisions in remitted major depressive disorder

PubMed Central

Pulcu, Erdem; Zahn, Roland; Moll, Jorge; Trotter, Paula D.; Thomas, Emma J.; Juhasz, Gabriella; Deakin, J.F.William; Anderson, Ian M.; Sahakian, Barbara J.; Elliott, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with functional abnormalities in fronto-meso-limbic networks contributing to decision-making, affective and reward processing impairments. Such functional disturbances may underlie a tendency for enhanced altruism driven by empathy-based guilt observed in some patients. However, despite the relevance of altruistic decisions to understanding vulnerability, as well as everyday psychosocial functioning, in MDD, their functional neuroanatomy is unknown. Methods Using a charitable donations experiment with fMRI, we compared 14 medication-free participants with fully remitted MDD and 15 demographically-matched control participants without MDD. Results Compared with the control group, the remitted MDD group exhibited enhanced BOLD response in a septal/subgenual cingulate cortex (sgACC) region for charitable donation relative to receiving simple rewards and higher striatum activation for both charitable donation and simple reward relative to a low level baseline. The groups did not differ in demographics, frequency of donations or response times, demonstrating only a difference in neural architecture. Conclusions We showed that altruistic decisions probe residual sgACC hypersensitivity in MDD even after symptoms are fully remitted. The sgACC has previously been shown to be associated with guilt which promotes altruistic decisions. In contrast, the striatum showed common activation to both simple and altruistic rewards and could be involved in the so-called “warm glow” of donation. Enhanced neural response in the depression group, in areas previously linked to altruistic decisions, supports the hypothesis of a possible association between hyper-altruism and depression vulnerability, as shown by recent epidemiological studies. PMID:24936421

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Diagnosis and treatment of simple acid-base disorders.

PubMed

Ayers, Phil; Warrington, Laurie

2008-01-01

The ability to diagnose and treat acid-base disorders is an important component in the practice of the nutrition support clinician. A complete understanding of the basic principles of metabolic and respiratory disorders allows the practitioner to formulate educated decisions regarding fluids, parenteral nutrition salts, and the management of electrolytes. This review will discuss the diagnosis and treatment of common metabolic and respiratory disorders encountered in nutrition support practice.

Virtual Grower 3: A powerful decision support tool for greenhouse systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Several years ago, Virtual Grower software was released to the public. Initially designed to help greenhouse growers determine heating costs and do simple simulations to figure out where heat savings could be achieved, it has slowly added features. Now, Virtual Grower can help not only identify he...

8 CFR 245a.2 - Application for temporary residence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... adjudicate a claim may result in denial of the benefit sought. Acceptable supporting documents for these...) (narcotics) except for a single offense of simple possession of thirty grams or less of marijuana; (iii... benefit which has been requested. The director's new decision must be served on the appealing party within...

8 CFR 245a.2 - Application for temporary residence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... adjudicate a claim may result in denial of the benefit sought. Acceptable supporting documents for these...) (narcotics) except for a single offense of simple possession of thirty grams or less of marijuana; (iii... benefit which has been requested. The director's new decision must be served on the appealing party within...

8 CFR 245a.2 - Application for temporary residence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... adjudicate a claim may result in denial of the benefit sought. Acceptable supporting documents for these...) (narcotics) except for a single offense of simple possession of thirty grams or less of marijuana; (iii... benefit which has been requested. The director's new decision must be served on the appealing party within...

8 CFR 245a.2 - Application for temporary residence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... adjudicate a claim may result in denial of the benefit sought. Acceptable supporting documents for these...) (narcotics) except for a single offense of simple possession of thirty grams or less of marijuana; (iii... benefit which has been requested. The director's new decision must be served on the appealing party within...

Information and decision support needs of parents considering amniocentesis: interviews with pregnant women and health professionals.

PubMed

Durand, Marie-Anne; Stiel, Mareike; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

2010-06-01

Our aim was to clarify and categorize information and decision support needs of pregnant women deciding about amniocentesis. Prenatal screening for Down's syndrome (implemented in routine practice) generates a quantifiable risk of chromosome abnormality. To increase certainty, chromosomal material needs to be obtained through amniocentesis or other diagnostic test. Amniocentesis carries risks of pregnancy loss. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with health professionals and pregnant women who had considered amniocentesis. The data were qualitatively analysed using a two-step thematic content analysis. A sample of 17 health professionals and 17 pregnant women were interviewed. Professionals demonstrated little consensus regarding the miscarriage rate, the potential consequences of amniocentesis testing and the uncertainty associated with the tests. Furthermore, methods employed to communicate risks varied between professionals. Pregnant women reported heightened stress and anxiety. Twelve out of 17 women described the decision as complex and difficult to make while five participants were satisfied with the information and support provided. Women would have liked more information about the risks involved, the results, the consequences of an amniocentesis and associated emotional difficulties. Women highlighted the need for personalized information, presented in multiple ways, while remaining simple and unbiased. There is variation in the provision of information related to amniocentesis testing. The majority of pregnant women reported difficulties making a decision and identified dimensions of information and decision support where improvements were needed.

Web-based health services and clinical decision support.

PubMed

Jegelevicius, Darius; Marozas, Vaidotas; Lukosevicius, Arunas; Patasius, Martynas

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was the development of a Web-based e-health service for comprehensive assistance and clinical decision support. The service structure consists of a Web server, a PHP-based Web interface linked to a clinical SQL database, Java applets for interactive manipulation and visualization of signals and a Matlab server linked with signal and data processing algorithms implemented by Matlab programs. The service ensures diagnostic signal- and image analysis-sbased clinical decision support. By using the discussed methodology, a pilot service for pathology specialists for automatic calculation of the proliferation index has been developed. Physicians use a simple Web interface for uploading the pictures under investigation to the server; subsequently a Java applet interface is used for outlining the region of interest and, after processing on the server, the requested proliferation index value is calculated. There is also an "expert corner", where experts can submit their index estimates and comments on particular images, which is especially important for system developers. These expert evaluations are used for optimization and verification of automatic analysis algorithms. Decision support trials have been conducted for ECG and ophthalmology ultrasonic investigations of intraocular tumor differentiation. Data mining algorithms have been applied and decision support trees constructed. These services are under implementation by a Web-based system too. The study has shown that the Web-based structure ensures more effective, flexible and accessible services compared with standalone programs and is very convenient for biomedical engineers and physicians, especially in the development phase.

Decision Support Model for Mosque Renovation and Rehabilitation (Case Study: Ten Mosques in Jakarta Barat, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, D. N.; Triana, Y. S.; Iqbal, M. M.; Iksal, M.; Fikri, I.; Dharmawan, T.

2018-03-01

Mosque, for Muslim, is not only a place for daily worshipping, however as a center of culture as well. It is an important and valuable building to be well managed. For a responsible department or institution (such as Religion or Plan Department in Indonesia), to practically manage a lot of mosques is not simple task to handle. The challenge is in relation to data number and characteristic problems tackled. Specifically for renovating and rehabilitating the damaged mosques, a decision to determine the first damaged mosque priority to be renovated and rehabilitated is problematic. Through two types of optimization method, simulated-annealing and hill-climbing, a decision support model for mosque renovation and rehabilitation was systematically constructed. The method fuzzy-logic was also operated to establish the priority of eleven selected parameters. The constructed model is able to simulate an efficiency comparison between two optimization methods used and suggest the most objective decision coming from 196 generated alternatives.

A Web-Based Treatment Decision Support Tool for Patients With Advanced Knee Arthritis: Evaluation of User Interface and Content Design

PubMed Central

Zheng, Hua; Rosal, Milagros C; Li, Wenjun; Borg, Amy; Yang, Wenyun; Ayers, David C

2018-01-01

Background Data-driven surgical decisions will ensure proper use and timing of surgical care. We developed a Web-based patient-centered treatment decision and assessment tool to guide treatment decisions among patients with advanced knee osteoarthritis who are considering total knee replacement surgery. Objective The aim of this study was to examine user experience and acceptance of the Web-based treatment decision support tool among older adults. Methods User-centered formative and summative evaluations were conducted for the tool. A sample of 28 patients who were considering total knee replacement participated in the study. Participants’ responses to the user interface design, the clarity of information, as well as usefulness, satisfaction, and acceptance of the tool were collected through qualitative (ie, individual patient interviews) and quantitative (ie, standardized Computer System Usability Questionnaire) methods. Results Participants were older adults with a mean age of 63 (SD 11) years. Three-quarters of them had no technical questions using the tool. User interface design recommendations included larger fonts, bigger buttons, less colors, simpler navigation without extra “next page” click, less mouse movement, and clearer illustrations with simple graphs. Color-coded bar charts and outcome-specific graphs with positive action were easiest for them to understand the outcomes data. Questionnaire data revealed high satisfaction with the tool usefulness and interface quality, and also showed ease of use of the tool, regardless of age or educational status. Conclusions We evaluated the usability of a patient-centered decision support tool designed for advanced knee arthritis patients to facilitate their knee osteoarthritis treatment decision making. The lessons learned can inform other decision support tools to improve interface and content design for older patients’ use. PMID:29712620

Development and application of air quality models at the US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Overview of the development and application of air quality models at the U.S. EPA, particularly focused on the development and application of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed within the Computation Exposure Division (CED) of the National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). This presentation will provide a simple overview of air quality model development and application geared toward a non-technical student audience. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Cloud-Based Tools to Support High-Resolution Modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N.; Nelson, J.; Swain, N.; Christensen, S.

2013-12-01

The majority of watershed models developed to support decision-making by water management agencies are simple, lumped-parameter models. Maturity in research codes and advances in the computational power from multi-core processors on desktop machines, commercial cloud-computing resources, and supercomputers with thousands of cores have created new opportunities for employing more accurate, high-resolution distributed models for routine use in decision support. The barriers for using such models on a more routine basis include massive amounts of spatial data that must be processed for each new scenario and lack of efficient visualization tools. In this presentation we will review a current NSF-funded project called CI-WATER that is intended to overcome many of these roadblocks associated with high-resolution modeling. We are developing a suite of tools that will make it possible to deploy customized web-based apps for running custom scenarios for high-resolution models with minimal effort. These tools are based on a software stack that includes 52 North, MapServer, PostGIS, HT Condor, CKAN, and Python. This open source stack provides a simple scripting environment for quickly configuring new custom applications for running high-resolution models as geoprocessing workflows. The HT Condor component facilitates simple access to local distributed computers or commercial cloud resources when necessary for stochastic simulations. The CKAN framework provides a powerful suite of tools for hosting such workflows in a web-based environment that includes visualization tools and storage of model simulations in a database to archival, querying, and sharing of model results. Prototype applications including land use change, snow melt, and burned area analysis will be presented. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1135482

A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence.

PubMed

van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

2016-02-01

Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy.

Dynamic Integration of Value Information into a Common Probability Currency as a Theory for Flexible Decision Making

PubMed Central

Christopoulos, Vassilios; Schrater, Paul R.

2015-01-01

Decisions involve two fundamental problems, selecting goals and generating actions to pursue those goals. While simple decisions involve choosing a goal and pursuing it, humans evolved to survive in hostile dynamic environments where goal availability and value can change with time and previous actions, entangling goal decisions with action selection. Recent studies suggest the brain generates concurrent action-plans for competing goals, using online information to bias the competition until a single goal is pursued. This creates a challenging problem of integrating information across diverse types, including both the dynamic value of the goal and the costs of action. We model the computations underlying dynamic decision-making with disparate value types, using the probability of getting the highest pay-off with the least effort as a common currency that supports goal competition. This framework predicts many aspects of decision behavior that have eluded a common explanation. PMID:26394299

Improved monitoring framework for local planning in the water, sanitation and hygiene sector: From data to decision-making.

PubMed

Garriga, Ricard Giné; de Palencia, Alejandro Jiménez Fdez; Foguet, Agustí Pérez

2015-09-01

Today, a vast proportion of people still lack a simple pit latrine and a source of safe drinking water. To help end this appalling state of affairs, there is a pressing need to provide policymakers with evidences which may be the basis of effective planning, targeting and prioritization. Two major challenges often hinder this process: i) lack of reliable data to identify which areas are most in need; and ii) inadequate instruments for decision-making support. In tackling previous shortcomings, this paper proposes a monitoring framework to compile, analyze, interpret and disseminate water, sanitation and hygiene information. In an era of decentralization, where decision-making moves to local governments, we apply such framework at the local level. The ultimate goal is to develop appropriate tools for decentralized planning support. To this end, the study first implements a methodology for primary data collection, which combines the household and the waterpoint as information sources. In doing so, we provide a complete picture of the context in which domestic WASH services are delivered. Second, the collected data are analyzed to underline the emerging development challenges. The use of simple planning indicators serves as the basis to i) reveal which areas require policy attention, and to ii) identify the neediest. Third, a classification process is proposed to prioritize among various populations. Three different case studies from East and Southern African countries are presented. Results indicate that accurate and comprehensive data, if adequately exploited through simple instruments, may be the basis of effective targeting and prioritization, which are central to sector planning. The application of the proposed framework in the real world, however, is to a certain extent elusive; and we point out to conclude two specific challenges that remain unaddressed, namely the upgrade of existing decision-making processes to enhance transparency and inclusiveness, and the development of data updating mechanisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

E-DECIDER Decision Support Gateway For Earthquake Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasscoe, M. T.; Stough, T. M.; Parker, J. W.; Burl, M. C.; Donnellan, A.; Blom, R. G.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; Rundle, J. B.; Yoder, M. R.

2013-12-01

Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software in order to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. E-DECIDER incorporates earthquake forecasting methodology and geophysical modeling tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project in order to produce standards-compliant map data products to aid in decision-making following an earthquake. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools, help provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). E-DECIDER utilizes a service-based GIS model for its cyber-infrastructure in order to produce standards-compliant products for different user types with multiple service protocols (such as KML, WMS, WFS, and WCS). The goal is to make complex GIS processing and domain-specific analysis tools more accessible to general users through software services as well as provide system sustainability through infrastructure services. The system comprises several components, which include: a GeoServer for thematic mapping and data distribution, a geospatial database for storage and spatial analysis, web service APIs, including simple-to-use REST APIs for complex GIS functionalities, and geoprocessing tools including python scripts to produce standards-compliant data products. These are then served to the E-DECIDER decision support gateway (http://e-decider.org), the E-DECIDER mobile interface, and to the Department of Homeland Security decision support middleware UICDS (Unified Incident Command and Decision Support). The E-DECIDER decision support gateway features a web interface that delivers map data products including deformation modeling results (slope change and strain magnitude) and aftershock forecasts, with remote sensing change detection results under development. These products are event triggered (from the USGS earthquake feed) and will be posted to event feeds on the E-DECIDER webpage and accessible via the mobile interface and UICDS. E-DECIDER also features a KML service that provides infrastructure information from the FEMA HAZUS database through UICDS and the mobile interface. The back-end GIS service architecture and front-end gateway components form a decision support system that is designed for ease-of-use and extensibility for end-users.

The disruption management model.

PubMed

McAlister, James

2011-10-01

Within all organisations, business continuity disruptions present a set of dilemmas that managers may not have dealt with before in their normal daily duties. The disruption management model provides a simple but effective management tool to enable crisis management teams to stay focused on recovery in the midst of a business continuity incident. The model has four chronological primary headlines, which steer the team through a quick-time crisis decision-making process. The procedure facilitates timely, systematic, rationalised and justified decisions, which can withstand post-event scrutiny. The disruption management model has been thoroughly tested within an emergency services environment and is proven to significantly support clear and concise decision making in a business continuity context.

From Complex Data to Actionable Information: Institutional Research Supporting Enrollment Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Douglas K.; Milner, Bridgett J.; Foley, Chris J.

2008-01-01

Producing analyses that are accurate, timely, and simple is a constant challenge for institutional researchers. The stakes are high: when the analysis is incomplete, arrives too late, does not adequately address the question, or is simply too much to comprehend, decision makers fall back on anecdotal thinking or gut-level reactions that can lead…

On the suitability of fast and frugal heuristics for designing values clarification methods in patient decision aids: a critical analysis.

PubMed

Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke

2013-09-01

Increasingly, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCMs) are being developed to support patients in making preference-sensitive health-care decisions. Many VCMs encourage extensive deliberation about options, without solid theoretical or empirical evidence showing that deliberation is advantageous. Research suggests that simple, fast and frugal heuristic decision strategies sometimes result in better judgments and decisions. Durand et al. have developed two fast and frugal heuristic-based VCMs. To critically analyse the suitability of the 'take the best' (TTB) and 'tallying' fast and frugal heuristics in the context of patient decision making. Analysis of the structural similarities between the environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have been proven successful and the context of patient decision making and of the potential of these heuristic decision processes to support patient decision making. The specific nature of patient preference-sensitive decision making does not seem to resemble environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have proven successful. Encouraging patients to consider less rather than more relevant information potentially even deteriorates their values clarification process. Values clarification methods promoting the use of more intuitive decision strategies may sometimes be more effective. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend further theoretical thinking about the expected value of such heuristics and of other more intuitive decision strategies in this context, as well as empirical assessments of the mechanisms by which inducing such decision strategies may impact the quality and outcome of values clarification. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the suitability of fast and frugal heuristics for designing values clarification methods in patient decision aids: a critical analysis

PubMed Central

Pieterse, Arwen H.; de Vries, Marieke

2011-01-01

Abstract Background  Increasingly, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCMs) are being developed to support patients in making preference‐sensitive health‐care decisions. Many VCMs encourage extensive deliberation about options, without solid theoretical or empirical evidence showing that deliberation is advantageous. Research suggests that simple, fast and frugal heuristic decision strategies sometimes result in better judgments and decisions. Durand et al. have developed two fast and frugal heuristic‐based VCMs. Objective  To critically analyse the suitability of the ‘take the best’ (TTB) and ‘tallying’ fast and frugal heuristics in the context of patient decision making. Strategy  Analysis of the structural similarities between the environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have been proven successful and the context of patient decision making and of the potential of these heuristic decision processes to support patient decision making. Conclusion  The specific nature of patient preference‐sensitive decision making does not seem to resemble environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have proven successful. Encouraging patients to consider less rather than more relevant information potentially even deteriorates their values clarification process. Values clarification methods promoting the use of more intuitive decision strategies may sometimes be more effective. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend further theoretical thinking about the expected value of such heuristics and of other more intuitive decision strategies in this context, as well as empirical assessments of the mechanisms by which inducing such decision strategies may impact the quality and outcome of values clarification. PMID:21902770

Comparison AHP and SAW to promotion of head major department SMK Muhammadiyah 04 Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputra, M.; Sitompul, O. S.; Sihombing, P.

2018-04-01

Decision Support System (DSS) is a system that can help a person to make informed decisions about various types of choices that are performed accurately and in accordance with the desired goals. Many problems can be solved by using decision support systems. In this journal the decision support system is used to assist the Chief of Muhammadiyah Medan branch in the selection of the department chief. The criteria used for the election of department chiefs are: Loyalty, Job Performance, Responsibility, Obedience, Honesty, Cooperation, Education, and Leadership. The selection promotion process consists of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) methods. The data were obtained through teacher assessment questionnaires by principals and colleagues. The results of this study used a comparison with two decision methods namely SAW method and AHP method so that the decision maker (principal) is more appropriate in the determination of candidates who will be elected head of department at school. The final result of this research is the first rank obtained by muhammad musa with weight value on AHP method (0.274) and weight value on SAW method (0.993), alvin syahrin with weight value on AHP method (0.241) and weight value on SAW method (0.883), noviyanti with weight value on AHP method (0.193) and weight value on SAW method (0.707). So the conclusion on the research that is by using SAW method the value of weight produced more accurate.

Linking Theoretical Decision-making Mechanisms in the Simon Task with Electrophysiological Data: A Model-based Neuroscience Study in Humans.

PubMed

Servant, Mathieu; White, Corey; Montagnini, Anna; Burle, Borís

2016-10-01

A current challenge for decision-making research is in extending models of simple decisions to more complex and ecological choice situations. Conflict tasks (e.g., Simon, Stroop, Eriksen flanker) have been the focus of much interest, because they provide a decision-making context representative of everyday life experiences. Modeling efforts have led to an elaborated drift diffusion model for conflict tasks (DMC), which implements a superimposition of automatic and controlled decision activations. The DMC has proven to capture the diversity of behavioral conflict effects across various task contexts. This study combined DMC predictions with EEG and EMG measurements to test a set of linking propositions that specify the relationship between theoretical decision-making mechanisms involved in the Simon task and brain activity. Our results are consistent with a representation of the superimposed decision variable in the primary motor cortices. The decision variable was also observed in the EMG activity of response agonist muscles. These findings provide new insight into the neurophysiology of human decision-making. In return, they provide support for the DMC model framework.

Introducing StatHand: A Cross-Platform Mobile Application to Support Students' Statistical Decision Making.

PubMed

Allen, Peter J; Roberts, Lynne D; Baughman, Frank D; Loxton, Natalie J; Van Rooy, Dirk; Rock, Adam J; Finlay, James

2016-01-01

Although essential to professional competence in psychology, quantitative research methods are a known area of weakness for many undergraduate psychology students. Students find selecting appropriate statistical tests and procedures for different types of research questions, hypotheses and data types particularly challenging, and these skills are not often practiced in class. Decision trees (a type of graphic organizer) are known to facilitate this decision making process, but extant trees have a number of limitations. Furthermore, emerging research suggests that mobile technologies offer many possibilities for facilitating learning. It is within this context that we have developed StatHand, a free cross-platform application designed to support students' statistical decision making. Developed with the support of the Australian Government Office for Learning and Teaching, StatHand guides users through a series of simple, annotated questions to help them identify a statistical test or procedure appropriate to their circumstances. It further offers the guidance necessary to run these tests and procedures, then interpret and report their results. In this Technology Report we will overview the rationale behind StatHand, before describing the feature set of the application. We will then provide guidelines for integrating StatHand into the research methods curriculum, before concluding by outlining our road map for the ongoing development and evaluation of StatHand.

An Exploratory Data Analysis System for Support in Medical Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Copeland, J. A.; Hamel, B.; Bourne, J. R.

1979-01-01

An experimental system was developed to allow retrieval and analysis of data collected during a study of neurobehavioral correlates of renal disease. After retrieving data organized in a relational data base, simple bivariate statistics of parametric and nonparametric nature could be conducted. An “exploratory” mode in which the system provided guidance in selection of appropriate statistical analyses was also available to the user. The system traversed a decision tree using the inherent qualities of the data (e.g., the identity and number of patients, tests, and time epochs) to search for the appropriate analyses to employ.

A simple way to unify multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) using a Dirichlet distribution in benefit-risk assessment.

PubMed

Saint-Hilary, Gaelle; Cadour, Stephanie; Robert, Veronique; Gasparini, Mauro

2017-05-01

Quantitative methodologies have been proposed to support decision making in drug development and monitoring. In particular, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) are useful tools to assess the benefit-risk ratio of medicines according to the performances of the treatments on several criteria, accounting for the preferences of the decision makers regarding the relative importance of these criteria. However, even in its probabilistic form, MCDA requires the exact elicitations of the weights of the criteria by the decision makers, which may be difficult to achieve in practice. SMAA allows for more flexibility and can be used with unknown or partially known preferences, but it is less popular due to its increased complexity and the high degree of uncertainty in its results. In this paper, we propose a simple model as a generalization of MCDA and SMAA, by applying a Dirichlet distribution to the weights of the criteria and by making its parameters vary. This unique model permits to fit both MCDA and SMAA, and allows for a more extended exploration of the benefit-risk assessment of treatments. The precision of its results depends on the precision parameter of the Dirichlet distribution, which could be naturally interpreted as the strength of confidence of the decision makers in their elicitation of preferences. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Age-related slowing: perceptuomotor, decision, or attention decline?

PubMed

Godefroy, Olivier; Roussel, Martine; Despretz, Pascal; Quaglino, Véronique; Boucart, Muriel

2010-04-01

Age-related slowing is well documented but its origin remains unclear. A first validation study (Study 1) performed in 46 participants examined the effect of attention allocation (manipulated through a dual task) on various portions of individual simple reaction time (SRT) distribution (minimum, centile 5, centile 50, and centile 95 RTs). It showed that attention 'deprivation' due to a secondary task is not uniform throughout the distribution but impaired mainly the ability to produce a large number of fast responses. Study 2 investigated in 88 healthy participants age-related slowing of perceptual, motor, decision, and attentional processes using SRT and choice reaction time (CRT), finger tapping, and visual inspection time tests. It showed that the majority of SRT slowing after the age of 40 is due to lengthening of centile 5 RT, suggesting perceptuomotor slowing, an interpretation supported by longer visual inspection time and lower tapping frequency. After 60 years, SRT lengthening was due to a further lengthening of the centile 5-centile 50 SRT index, suggesting the participation of attentional decline. These findings support the hypothesis that age-related slowing in simple repetitive tasks is mainly related to slowing at the stage of perceptuomotor processes, and after 60 years, to additional decline of attention.

Enabling Real-time Water Decision Support Services Using Model as a Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, T.; Minsker, B. S.; Lee, J. S.; Salas, F. R.; Maidment, D. R.; David, C. H.

2014-12-01

Through application of computational methods and an integrated information system, data and river modeling services can help researchers and decision makers more rapidly understand river conditions under alternative scenarios. To enable this capability, workflows (i.e., analysis and model steps) are created and published as Web services delivered through an internet browser, including model inputs, a published workflow service, and visualized outputs. The RAPID model, which is a river routing model developed at University of Texas Austin for parallel computation of river discharge, has been implemented as a workflow and published as a Web application. This allows non-technical users to remotely execute the model and visualize results as a service through a simple Web interface. The model service and Web application has been prototyped in the San Antonio and Guadalupe River Basin in Texas, with input from university and agency partners. In the future, optimization model workflows will be developed to link with the RAPID model workflow to provide real-time water allocation decision support services.

A Web-Based Treatment Decision Support Tool for Patients With Advanced Knee Arthritis: Evaluation of User Interface and Content Design.

PubMed

Zheng, Hua; Rosal, Milagros C; Li, Wenjun; Borg, Amy; Yang, Wenyun; Ayers, David C; Franklin, Patricia D

2018-04-30

Data-driven surgical decisions will ensure proper use and timing of surgical care. We developed a Web-based patient-centered treatment decision and assessment tool to guide treatment decisions among patients with advanced knee osteoarthritis who are considering total knee replacement surgery. The aim of this study was to examine user experience and acceptance of the Web-based treatment decision support tool among older adults. User-centered formative and summative evaluations were conducted for the tool. A sample of 28 patients who were considering total knee replacement participated in the study. Participants' responses to the user interface design, the clarity of information, as well as usefulness, satisfaction, and acceptance of the tool were collected through qualitative (ie, individual patient interviews) and quantitative (ie, standardized Computer System Usability Questionnaire) methods. Participants were older adults with a mean age of 63 (SD 11) years. Three-quarters of them had no technical questions using the tool. User interface design recommendations included larger fonts, bigger buttons, less colors, simpler navigation without extra "next page" click, less mouse movement, and clearer illustrations with simple graphs. Color-coded bar charts and outcome-specific graphs with positive action were easiest for them to understand the outcomes data. Questionnaire data revealed high satisfaction with the tool usefulness and interface quality, and also showed ease of use of the tool, regardless of age or educational status. We evaluated the usability of a patient-centered decision support tool designed for advanced knee arthritis patients to facilitate their knee osteoarthritis treatment decision making. The lessons learned can inform other decision support tools to improve interface and content design for older patients' use. ©Hua Zheng, Milagros C Rosal, Wenjun Li, Amy Borg, Wenyun Yang, David C Ayers, Patricia D Franklin. Originally published in JMIR Human Factors (http://humanfactors.jmir.org), 30.04.2018.

A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence

PubMed Central

van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

2016-01-01

Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12192.001 PMID:26829590

Communication and Decision Making in Cancer Care: Setting Research Priorities for Decision Support/Patients’ Decision Aids

PubMed Central

Barnato, Amber E.; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary A.; Peters, Ellen M.; Siminoff, Laura; Collins, E. Dale; Barry, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The following is a summary report from a special symposium, entitled “Translating Research into Practice: Setting a Research Agenda for Clinical Decision Tools in Cancer Prevention, Early Detection, and Treatment”, that was held on October 23, 2005 in San Francisco at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM). The symposium was designed to answer the question: “What are the top two research priorities in the field of patients’ cancer-related decision aids?” After introductory remarks by Dr. Barry, each of four panelists–Drs. Hilary Llewellyn-Thomas, Ellen Peters, Laura Siminoff, and Dale Collins–addressed the question and provided their rationale during prepared remarks. The moderator, Dr. Michael Barry, then facilitated a discussion between the panelists, with input from the audience, to further explore and add to the various proposed research questions. Finally, Dr. Amber Barnato conducted a simple vote count (see Table 1) to prioritize the panelists’ and the audience’s recommendations. PMID:17873249

Cells, circuits, and choices: social influences on perceptual decision making.

PubMed

Mojzisch, Andreas; Krug, Kristine

2008-12-01

Making decisions is an integral part of everyday life. Social psychologists have demonstrated in many studies that humans' decisions are frequently and strongly influenced by the opinions of others--even in simple perceptual decisions, where, for example, participants have to judge what an image looks like. However, because the effect of other people's opinions on decision making has remained largely unaddressed by the neuroimaging and neurophysiology literature, we are only beginning to understand how social influence is integrated into the decision-making process. We put forward the thesis that by probing the neurophysiology of social influence with perceptual decision-making tasks similar to those used in the seminal work of Asch (1952, 1956), this gap could be remedied. Perceptual paradigms are already widely used to probe neuronal mechanisms of decision making in nonhuman primates. There is also increasing evidence about how nonhuman primates' behavior is influenced by observing conspecifics. The high spatial and temporal resolution of neurophysiological recordings in awake monkeys could provide insight into where and how social influence modulates decision making, and thus should enable us to develop detailed functional models of the neural mechanisms that support the integration of social influence into the decision-making process.

Modern data-driven decision support systems: the role of computing with words and computational linguistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kacprzyk, Janusz; Zadrożny, Sławomir

2010-05-01

We present how the conceptually and numerically simple concept of a fuzzy linguistic database summary can be a very powerful tool for gaining much insight into the very essence of data. The use of linguistic summaries provides tools for the verbalisation of data analysis (mining) results which, in addition to the more commonly used visualisation, e.g. via a graphical user interface, can contribute to an increased human consistency and ease of use, notably for supporting decision makers via the data-driven decision support system paradigm. Two new relevant aspects of the analysis are also outlined which were first initiated by the authors. First, following Kacprzyk and Zadrożny, it is further considered how linguistic data summarisation is closely related to some types of solutions used in natural language generation (NLG). This can make it possible to use more and more effective and efficient tools and techniques developed in NLG. Second, similar remarks are given on relations to systemic functional linguistics. Moreover, following Kacprzyk and Zadrożny, comments are given on an extremely relevant aspect of scalability of linguistic summarisation of data, using a new concept of a conceptual scalability.

Comparative effectiveness research in hand surgery.

PubMed

Johnson, Shepard P; Chung, Kevin C

2014-08-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is a concept initiated by the Institute of Medicine and financially supported by the federal government. The primary objective of CER is to improve decision making in medicine. This research is intended to evaluate the effectiveness, benefits, and harmful effects of alternative interventions. CER studies are commonly large, simple, observational, and conducted using electronic databases. To date, there is little comparative effectiveness evidence within hand surgery to guide therapeutic decisions. To draw conclusions on effectiveness through electronic health records, databases must contain clinical information and outcomes relevant to hand surgery interventions, such as patient-related outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lead optimization attrition analysis (LOAA): a novel and general methodology for medicinal chemistry.

PubMed

Munson, Mark; Lieberman, Harvey; Tserlin, Elina; Rocnik, Jennifer; Ge, Jie; Fitzgerald, Maria; Patel, Vinod; Garcia-Echeverria, Carlos

2015-08-01

Herein, we report a novel and general method, lead optimization attrition analysis (LOAA), to benchmark two distinct small-molecule lead series using a relatively unbiased, simple technique and commercially available software. We illustrate this approach with data collected during lead optimization of two independent oncology programs as a case study. Easily generated graphics and attrition curves enabled us to calibrate progress and support go/no go decisions on each program. We believe that this data-driven technique could be used broadly by medicinal chemists and management to guide strategic decisions during drug discovery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Training staff to create simple interactive virtual patients: the impact on a medical and healthcare institution.

PubMed

Round, Jonathan; Conradi, Emily; Poulton, Terry

2009-08-01

Virtual patients (VPs) are excellent teaching tools for developing clinical decision-making skills and improving clinical competency, but are believed to be very expensive and time consuming to make. The aim of this study was to establish whether it was possible to design a workshop for VP creation, which would enable teaching staff to create interactive, immersive VPs quickly, and with limited technical support. The Centre for Medical and Healthcare Education at St George's University of London's (SGUL) medical school developed an ergonomic and generic 'model' for VP creation, simple enough for clinicians and educators to use, yet flexible enough to simulate real decisions through non-linear pathways. One-day workshops were set up to support the development of VPs by medical and healthcare educators. VP creation workshops have been successfully trialled, attracting a large number of clinicians and educators from a range of medicine and healthcare courses. Feedback from participants was very positive. Educators, organised into small groups, were unable to complete VPs within the workshop, but many groups completed a VP after the workshop. Interest was highest in mental health. The workshops catalysed a change in the awareness of the value of VPs, with staff directly integrating VPs into the curriculum.

Developing an Environmental Decision Support System for Stream Management: the STREAMES Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, J.; Argerich, A.; Comas, J.; Llorens, E.; Martí, E.; Godé, L.; Pargament, D.; Puig, M.; Sabater, F.

2005-05-01

Transferring research knowledge to stream managers is crucial for scientifically sound management. Environmental decision support systems are advocated as an effective means to accomplish this. STREAMES (STream REAach Management: an Expert System) is a decision tree based EDSS prototype developed within the context of an European project as a tool to assist water managers in the diagnosis of problems, detection of causes, and selection of management strategies for coping with stream degradation issues related mostly to excess nutrient availability. STREAMES was developed by a team of scientists, water managers, and experts in knowledge engineering. Although the tool focuses on management at the stream reach scale, it also incorporates a mass-balance catchment nutrient emission model and a simple GIS module. We will briefly present the prototype and share our experience in its development. Emphasis will be placed on the process of knowledge acquisition, the design process, the pitfalls and benefits of the communication between scientists and managers, and the potential for future development of STREAMES, particularly in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive.

The 2014 Sandia Verification and Validation Challenge: Problem statement

DOE PAGES

Hu, Kenneth; Orient, George

2016-01-18

This paper presents a case study in utilizing information from experiments, models, and verification and validation (V&V) to support a decision. It consists of a simple system with data and models provided, plus a safety requirement to assess. The goal is to pose a problem that is flexible enough to allow challengers to demonstrate a variety of approaches, but constrained enough to focus attention on a theme. This was accomplished by providing a good deal of background information in addition to the data, models, and code, but directing the participants' activities with specific deliverables. In this challenge, the theme ismore » how to gather and present evidence about the quality of model predictions, in order to support a decision. This case study formed the basis of the 2014 Sandia V&V Challenge Workshop and this resulting special edition of the ASME Journal of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification.« less

Information Handling is the Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.

2001-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the concerns surrounding the automation of information handling. There are two types of decision support software that supports most Space Station Flight Controllers. one is very simple, and the other is very complex. A middle ground is sought. This is the reason for the Human Centered Autonomous and Assistant Systems Testbed (HCAAST) Project. The aim is to study flight controllers at work, and in the bigger picture, with particular attention to how they handle information and how coordination of multiple teams is performed. The focus of the project is on intelligent assistants to assist in handling information for the flight controllers.

Predicting Fire Severity and Hydrogeomorphic Effects for Wildland Fire Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, K.; Woods, S. W.; Calkin, D.; Ryan, K.; Keane, R.

2007-12-01

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) uses the Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) model to predict the spatial extent of fire, and to assess values-at-risk within probable spread zones. This information is used to support Appropriate Management Response (AMR), which involves decision making regarding fire-fighter deployment, fire suppression requirements, and identification of areas where fire may be safely permitted to take its course. Current WFDSS assessments are generally limited to a binary prediction of whether or not a fire will reach a given location and an assessment of the infrastructure which may be damaged or destroyed by fire. However, an emerging challenge is to expand the capabilities of WFDSS so that it also estimates the probable fire severity, and hence the effect on soil, vegetation and on hydrologic and geomorphic processes such as runoff and soil erosion. We present a conceptual framework within which derivatives of predictive fire modelling are used to predict impacts upon vegetation and soil, from which fire severity and probable post-fire watershed response can be inferred, before a fire actually occurs. Fire severity predictions are validated using Burned Area Reflectance Classification imagery. Recent tests indicate that satellite derived BARC images are a simple and effective means to predict post-fire erosion response based on relative vegetation disturbance. A fire severity prediction which reasonably approximates a BARC image may therefore be used to assess post-fire erosion and flood potential before fire reaches an area. This information may provide a new avenue of reliable support for fire management decisions.

Pharmacogenomic knowledge representation, reasoning and genome-based clinical decision support based on OWL 2 DL ontologies.

PubMed

Samwald, Matthias; Miñarro Giménez, Jose Antonio; Boyce, Richard D; Freimuth, Robert R; Adlassnig, Klaus-Peter; Dumontier, Michel

2015-02-22

Every year, hundreds of thousands of patients experience treatment failure or adverse drug reactions (ADRs), many of which could be prevented by pharmacogenomic testing. However, the primary knowledge needed for clinical pharmacogenomics is currently dispersed over disparate data structures and captured in unstructured or semi-structured formalizations. This is a source of potential ambiguity and complexity, making it difficult to create reliable information technology systems for enabling clinical pharmacogenomics. We developed Web Ontology Language (OWL) ontologies and automated reasoning methodologies to meet the following goals: 1) provide a simple and concise formalism for representing pharmacogenomic knowledge, 2) finde errors and insufficient definitions in pharmacogenomic knowledge bases, 3) automatically assign alleles and phenotypes to patients, 4) match patients to clinically appropriate pharmacogenomic guidelines and clinical decision support messages and 5) facilitate the detection of inconsistencies and overlaps between pharmacogenomic treatment guidelines from different sources. We evaluated different reasoning systems and test our approach with a large collection of publicly available genetic profiles. Our methodology proved to be a novel and useful choice for representing, analyzing and using pharmacogenomic data. The Genomic Clinical Decision Support (Genomic CDS) ontology represents 336 SNPs with 707 variants; 665 haplotypes related to 43 genes; 22 rules related to drug-response phenotypes; and 308 clinical decision support rules. OWL reasoning identified CDS rules with overlapping target populations but differing treatment recommendations. Only a modest number of clinical decision support rules were triggered for a collection of 943 public genetic profiles. We found significant performance differences across available OWL reasoners. The ontology-based framework we developed can be used to represent, organize and reason over the growing wealth of pharmacogenomic knowledge, as well as to identify errors, inconsistencies and insufficient definitions in source data sets or individual patient data. Our study highlights both advantages and potential practical issues with such an ontology-based approach.

mHealth for Clinical Decision-Making in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Albersen, Bregje Joanna Antonia; De Brouwere, Vincent; van Roosmalen, Jos; Zweekhorst, Marjolein

2017-01-01

Background In a bid to deliver quality health services in resource-poor settings, mobile health (mHealth) is increasingly being adopted. The role of mHealth in facilitating evidence-based clinical decision-making through data collection, decision algorithms, and evidence-based guidelines, for example, is established in resource-rich settings. However, the extent to which mobile clinical decision support systems (mCDSS) have been adopted specifically in resource-poor settings such as Africa and the lessons learned about their use in such settings are yet to be established. Objective The aim of this study was to synthesize evidence on the use of mHealth for point-of-care decision support and improved quality of care by health care workers in Africa. Methods A scoping review of 4 peer-reviewed and 1 grey literature databases was conducted. No date limits were applied, but only articles in English language were selected. Using pre-established criteria, 2 reviewers screened articles and extracted data. Articles were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and MAXQDA. Results We retained 22 articles representing 11 different studies in 7 sub-Saharan African countries. Interventions were mainly in the domain of maternal health and ranged from simple text messaging (short message service, SMS) to complex multicomponent interventions. Although health workers are generally supportive of mCDSS and perceive them as useful, concerns about increased workload and altered workflow hinder sustainability. Facilitators and barriers to use of mCDSS include technical and infrastructural support, ownership, health system challenges, and training. Conclusions The use of mCDSS in sub-Saharan Africa is an indication of progress in mHealth, although their effect on quality of service delivery is yet to be fully explored. Lessons learned are useful for informing future research, policy, and practice for technologically supported health care delivery, especially in resource-poor settings. PMID:28336504

Exploring Challenges and Opportunities of Coproduction: USDA Climate Hub Efforts to Integrate Coproduction with Applied Research and Decision Support Tool Development in the Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesch-McNally, G.; Prendeville, H. R.

2017-12-01

A lack of coproduction, the joint production of new technologies or knowledge among technical experts and other groups, is arguably one of the reasons why much scientific information and resulting decision support systems are not very usable. Increasingly, public agencies and academic institutions are emphasizing the importance of coproduction of scientific knowledge and decision support systems in order to facilitate greater engagement between the scientific community and key stakeholder groups. Coproduction has been embraced as a way for the scientific community to develop actionable scientific information that will assist end users in solving real-world problems. Increasing the level of engagement and stakeholder buy-in to the scientific process is increasingly necessary, particularly in the context of growing politicization of science and the scientific process. Coproduction can be an effective way to build trust and can build-on and integrate local and traditional knowledge. Employing coproduction strategies may enable the development of more relevant and useful information and decision support tools that address stakeholder challenges at relevant scales. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub has increasingly sought ways to integrate coproduction in the development of both applied research projects and the development of decision support systems. Integrating coproduction, however, within existing institutions is not always simple, given that coproduction is often more focused on process than products and products are, for better or worse, often the primary focus of applied research and tool development projects. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub sought to integrate coproduction into our FY2017 call for proposal process. As a result we have a set of proposals and fledgling projects that fall along the engagement continuum (see Figure 1- attached). We will share the challenges and opportunities that emerged from this purposeful integration of coproduction into the work that we prioritized for funding. This effort highlights strategies for how federal agencies might consider how and whether to codify coproduction tenets into their collaborations and agenda setting.

Validation of the AVM Blast Computational Modeling and Simulation Tool Set

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-04

by-construction" methodology is powerful and would not be possible without high -level design languages to support validation and verification. [1,4...to enable the making of informed design decisions.  Enable rapid exploration of the design trade-space for high -fidelity requirements tradeoffs...live-fire tests, the jump height of the target structure is recorded by using either high speed cameras or a string pot. A simple projectile motion

Multi-criteria group decision making for evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs under uncertainty.

PubMed

Wibowo, Santoso; Deng, Hepu

2015-06-01

This paper presents a multi-criteria group decision making approach for effectively evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs under uncertainty in an organization. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used for adequately representing the subjective and imprecise assessments of the decision makers in evaluating the relative importance of evaluation criteria and the performance of individual e-waste recycling programs with respect to individual criteria in a given situation. An interactive fuzzy multi-criteria decision making algorithm is developed for facilitating consensus building in a group decision making environment to ensure that all the interest of individual decision makers have been appropriately considered in evaluating alternative e-waste recycling programs with respect to their corporate sustainability performance. The developed algorithm is then incorporated into a multi-criteria decision support system for making the overall performance evaluation process effectively and simple to use. Such a multi-criteria decision making system adequately provides organizations with a proactive mechanism for incorporating the concept of corporate sustainability into their regular planning decisions and business practices. An example is presented for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed approach in evaluating the performance of e-waste recycling programs in organizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Précis of Simple heuristics that make us smart.

PubMed

Todd, P M; Gigerenzer, G

2000-10-01

How can anyone be rational in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often an unattainable luxury? Traditional models of unbounded rationality and optimization in cognitive science, economics, and animal behavior have tended to view decision-makers as possessing supernatural powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and endless time. But understanding decisions in the real world requires a more psychologically plausible notion of bounded rationality. In Simple heuristics that make us smart (Gigerenzer et al. 1999), we explore fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules in the mind's adaptive toolbox for making decisions with realistic mental resources. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices quickly and with a minimum of information by exploiting the way that information is structured in particular environments. In this précis, we show how simple building blocks that control information search, stop search, and make decisions can be put together to form classes of heuristics, including: ignorance-based and one-reason decision making for choice, elimination models for categorization, and satisficing heuristics for sequential search. These simple heuristics perform comparably to more complex algorithms, particularly when generalizing to new data--that is, simplicity leads to robustness. We present evidence regarding when people use simple heuristics and describe the challenges to be addressed by this research program.

Clinical decision rules for termination of resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Sherbino, Jonathan; Keim, Samuel M; Davis, Daniel P

2010-01-01

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has a low probability of survival to hospital discharge. Four clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been validated to identify patients with no probability of survival. Three of these rules focus on exclusive prehospital basic life support care for OHCA, and two of these rules focus on prehospital advanced life support care for OHCA. Can a CDR for the termination of resuscitation identify a patient with no probability of survival in the setting of OHCA? Six validation studies were selected from a PubMed search. A structured review of each of the studies is presented. In OHCA receiving basic life support care, the BLS-TOR (basic life support termination of resuscitation) rule has a positive predictive value for death of 99.5% (95% confidence interval 98.9-99.8%), and decreases the transportation of all patients by 62.6%. This rule has been appropriately validated for widespread use. In OHCA receiving advanced life support care, no current rule has been appropriately validated for widespread use. The BLS-TOR rule is a simple rule that identifies patients who will not survive OHCA. Further research is required to identify similarly robust CDRs for patients receiving advanced life support care in the setting of OHCA. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating evidence and individual preferences using a web-based multi-criteria decision analytic tool: an application to prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Dowie, Jack; Henderson, Joan; Bayram, Clare; Britt, Helena; Howard, Kirsten

2011-01-01

Annalisa© (AL) is a web-based decision-support template grounded in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It uses a simple expected value algorithm to calculate a score for each option by taking into account the individual's preferences for different criteria (as importance weights) and the evidence of the performance of each option on each criterion. Given the uncertainty surrounding the trade offs between benefits and harms for prostate cancer screening, this topic was chosen as the vehicle to introduce this new decision-support template. The aim of the study was to introduce a new decision-support template, AL, and to develop and pilot a decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening using it. A decision-support tool for prostate cancer screening (ALProst) was implemented in the AL template. ALProst incorporated evidence on both the benefits and the potential harms of prostate cancer screening (the 'attributes') from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Individual weights for each attribute were elicited during interviews. By combining the individual's preferences and the evidence, the best option for the user was identified on the basis of quantified scores. A convenience sample of computer-proficient primary-care physicians (general practitioners [GPs] in Australia) from the Sydney Metropolitan area (Australia) were invited to complete a face-to-face interview involving the decision-support tool. Preference for undergoing prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer, both personally and for their patients, was sought prior to seeing the tool. After gaining hands-on experience with using the tool, GPs were asked to comment on the merits of the template and the tool. Preference for presenting the benefits of prostate cancer screening as the relative or absolute risk reduction in prostate cancer-specific mortality was also sought. Of 60 GPs approached, ten (six men and four women) completed an interview (16.7% response rate). Most GPs agreed/strongly agreed with positive statements about the ease with which they could use AL (seven GPs), and understand the information in, and format of, AL (nine and eight, respectively). Eight agreed/strongly agreed that ALProst would be a useful tool for discussing prostate cancer screening with their patients. GPs were also asked to nominate difficult clinical decisions that they, and their patients, have had to make; responses included cancer screening (including prostate cancer); treating patients with multiple illnesses/diseases; managing multiple cardiovascular disease risk factors; and managing patients who are receiving multiple medications. The common element was the need to consider multiple factors in making these complex decisions. AL is distinguishable from most other decision-support templates available today by its underlying conceptual framework, MCDA, and its power to combine individual preferences with evidence to derive the best option for the user quantitatively. It therefore becomes potentially useful for all decisions at all levels in the healthcare system. Moreover, it will provide a universal graphic 'language' that can overcome the burden to patients of encountering a plethora of widely varying decision aids for different conditions during their lifetime.

A simple threshold rule is sufficient to explain sophisticated collective decision-making.

PubMed

Robinson, Elva J H; Franks, Nigel R; Ellis, Samuel; Okuda, Saki; Marshall, James A R

2011-01-01

Decision-making animals can use slow-but-accurate strategies, such as making multiple comparisons, or opt for simpler, faster strategies to find a 'good enough' option. Social animals make collective decisions about many group behaviours including foraging and migration. The key to the collective choice lies with individual behaviour. We present a case study of a collective decision-making process (house-hunting ants, Temnothorax albipennis), in which a previously proposed decision strategy involved both quality-dependent hesitancy and direct comparisons of nests by scouts. An alternative possible decision strategy is that scouting ants use a very simple quality-dependent threshold rule to decide whether to recruit nest-mates to a new site or search for alternatives. We use analytical and simulation modelling to demonstrate that this simple rule is sufficient to explain empirical patterns from three studies of collective decision-making in ants, and can account parsimoniously for apparent comparison by individuals and apparent hesitancy (recruitment latency) effects, when available nests differ strongly in quality. This highlights the need to carefully design experiments to detect individual comparison. We present empirical data strongly suggesting that best-of-n comparison is not used by individual ants, although individual sequential comparisons are not ruled out. However, by using a simple threshold rule, decision-making groups are able to effectively compare options, without relying on any form of direct comparison of alternatives by individuals. This parsimonious mechanism could promote collective rationality in group decision-making.

Inconsistency and social decision making in patients with Borderline Personality Disorder.

PubMed

Preuss, Nora; Brändle, Laura S; Hager, Oliver M; Haynes, Melanie; Fischbacher, Urs; Hasler, Gregor

2016-09-30

Inconsistent social behavior is a core psychopathological feature of borderline personality disorder. The goal of the present study was to examine inconsistency in social decision-making using simple economic social experiments. We investigated the decisions of 17 female patients with BPD, 24 patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), and 36 healthy controls in three single shot economic experiments measuring trust, cooperation, and punishment. BPD severity was assessed using the Zanarini Rating Scale for BPD. Investments across identical one-shot trust and punishment games were significantly more inconsistent in BPD patients than in controls. Such inconsistencies were only found in the social risk conditions of the trust and punishment conditions but not in the non-social control conditions. MDD patients did not show such inconsistencies. Furthermore, social support was negatively correlated with inconsistent decision-making in the trust and punishment game, which underscores the clinical relevance of this finding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A matter of tradeoffs: reintroduction as a multiple objective decision

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Folk, Martin J.; Runge, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Decision making in guidance of reintroduction efforts is made challenging by the substantial scientific uncertainty typically involved. However, a less recognized challenge is that the management objectives are often numerous and complex. Decision makers managing reintroduction efforts are often concerned with more than just how to maximize the probability of reintroduction success from a population perspective. Decision makers are also weighing other concerns such as budget limitations, public support and/or opposition, impacts on the ecosystem, and the need to consider not just a single reintroduction effort, but conservation of the entire species. Multiple objective decision analysis is a powerful tool for formal analysis of such complex decisions. We demonstrate the use of multiple objective decision analysis in the case of the Florida non-migratory whooping crane reintroduction effort. In this case, the State of Florida was considering whether to resume releases of captive-reared crane chicks into the non-migratory whooping crane population in that state. Management objectives under consideration included maximizing the probability of successful population establishment, minimizing costs, maximizing public relations benefits, maximizing the number of birds available for alternative reintroduction efforts, and maximizing learning about the demographic patterns of reintroduced whooping cranes. The State of Florida engaged in a collaborative process with their management partners, first, to evaluate and characterize important uncertainties about system behavior, and next, to formally evaluate the tradeoffs between objectives using the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The recommendation resulting from this process, to continue releases of cranes at a moderate intensity, was adopted by the State of Florida in late 2008. Although continued releases did not receive support from the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, this approach does provide a template for the formal, transparent consideration of multiple, potentially competing, objectives in reintroduction decision making.

Development of a computerised decisions support system for renal risk drugs targeting primary healthcare

PubMed Central

Helldén, Anders; Al-Aieshy, Fadiea; Bastholm-Rahmner, Pia; Bergman, Ulf; Gustafsson, Lars L; Höök, Hans; Sjöviker, Susanne; Söderström, Anders; Odar-Cederlöf, Ingegerd

2015-01-01

Objectives To assess general practitioners (GPs) experience from the implementation and use of a renal computerised decision support system (CDSS) for drug dosing, developed for primary healthcare, integrated into the patient’s electronic health record (EHR), and building on estimation of the patient's creatinine clearance (ClCG). Design Qualitative research design by a questionnaire and a focus group discussion. Setting and participants Eight GPs at two primary healthcare centres (PHCs). Interventions The GP at PHC 1, and the project group, developed and tested the technical solution of the CDSS. Proof-of-concept was tested by seven GPs at PHC 2. They also participated in a group discussion and answered a questionnaire. A web window in the EHR gave drug and dosage in relation to ClCG. Each advice was according to three principles: If? Why? Because. Outcome measures (1) The GPs’ experience of ‘easiness to use’ and ‘perceived usefulness’ at PHC 2, based on loggings of use, answers from a questionnaire using a 5-point Likert scale, and answers from a focus group discussion. (2) The number of patients aged 65 years and older with an estimation of ClCG before and after the implementation of the CDSS. Results The GPs found the CDSS fast, simple and easy to use. They appreciated the automatic presentation of the CICG status on opening the medication list, and the ability to actively look up specific drug recommendations in two steps. The CDSS scored high on the Likert scale. All GPs wanted to continue the use of the CDSS and to recommend it to others. The number of patients with an estimated ClCG increased 1.6-fold. Conclusions Acceptance of the simple graphical interface of this push and pull renal CDSS was high among the primary care physicians evaluating this proof of concept. The graphical model should be useful for further development of renal decision support systems. PMID:26150141

Manipulators with flexible links: A simple model and experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimoyama, Isao; Oppenheim, Irving J.

1989-01-01

A simple dynamic model proposed for flexible links is briefly reviewed and experimental control results are presented for different flexible systems. A simple dynamic model is useful for rapid prototyping of manipulators and their control systems, for possible application to manipulator design decisions, and for real time computation as might be applied in model based or feedforward control. Such a model is proposed, with the further advantage that clear physical arguments and explanations can be associated with its simplifying features and with its resulting analytical properties. The model is mathematically equivalent to Rayleigh's method. Taking the example of planar bending, the approach originates in its choice of two amplitude variables, typically chosen as the link end rotations referenced to the chord (or the tangent) motion of the link. This particular choice is key in establishing the advantageous features of the model, and it was used to support the series of experiments reported.

MOEs for Drug Interdiction: Simple Tests Expose Critical Flaws

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

operations against illegal !rugs flowing into the U.S. Six candidate measures of effective (MOEs) are subjected to a structured assessment prcess that tests...supports spanning the decision space with a minimum number of MOEs. A small suite of MOEs reflecting relatively pure effects is preferred to long and...responds to changing consumer fashion--this year’s drug of choice may be overtaken by a new fad. Patterns of preference can vary widely by location as

Classification images reveal decision variables and strategies in forced choice tasks

PubMed Central

Pritchett, Lisa M.; Murray, Richard F.

2015-01-01

Despite decades of research, there is still uncertainty about how people make simple decisions about perceptual stimuli. Most theories assume that perceptual decisions are based on decision variables, which are internal variables that encode task-relevant information. However, decision variables are usually considered to be theoretical constructs that cannot be measured directly, and this often makes it difficult to test theories of perceptual decision making. Here we show how to measure decision variables on individual trials, and we use these measurements to test theories of perceptual decision making more directly than has previously been possible. We measure classification images, which are estimates of templates that observers use to extract information from stimuli. We then calculate the dot product of these classification images with the stimuli to estimate observers' decision variables. Finally, we reconstruct each observer's “decision space,” a map that shows the probability of the observer’s responses for all values of the decision variables. We use this method to examine decision strategies in two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) tasks, for which there are several competing models. In one experiment, the resulting decision spaces support the difference model, a classic theory of 2AFC decisions. In a second experiment, we find unexpected decision spaces that are not predicted by standard models of 2AFC decisions, and that suggest intrinsic uncertainty or soft thresholding. These experiments give new evidence regarding observers’ strategies in 2AFC tasks, and they show how measuring decision variables can answer long-standing questions about perceptual decision making. PMID:26015584

People adopt optimal policies in simple decision-making, after practice and guidance.

PubMed

Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

2017-04-01

Organisms making repeated simple decisions are faced with a tradeoff between urgent and cautious strategies. While animals can adopt a statistically optimal policy for this tradeoff, findings about human decision-makers have been mixed. Some studies have shown that people can optimize this "speed-accuracy tradeoff", while others have identified a systematic bias towards excessive caution. These issues have driven theoretical development and spurred debate about the nature of human decision-making. We investigated a potential resolution to the debate, based on two factors that routinely differ between human and animal studies of decision-making: the effects of practice, and of longer-term feedback. Our study replicated the finding that most people, by default, are overly cautious. When given both practice and detailed feedback, people moved rapidly towards the optimal policy, with many participants reaching optimality with less than 1 h of practice. Our findings have theoretical implications for cognitive and neural models of simple decision-making, as well as methodological implications.

A pre-operative planning for endoprosthetic human tracheal implantation: a decision support system based on robust design of experiments.

PubMed

Trabelsi, O; Villalobos, J L López; Ginel, A; Cortes, E Barrot; Doblaré, M

2014-05-01

Swallowing depends on physiological variables that have a decisive influence on the swallowing capacity and on the tracheal stress distribution. Prosthetic implantation modifies these values and the overall performance of the trachea. The objective of this work was to develop a decision support system based on experimental, numerical and statistical approaches, with clinical verification, to help the thoracic surgeon in deciding the position and appropriate dimensions of a Dumon prosthesis for a specific patient in an optimal time and with sufficient robustness. A code for mesh adaptation to any tracheal geometry was implemented and used to develop a robust experimental design, based on the Taguchi's method and the analysis of variance. This design was able to establish the main swallowing influencing factors. The equations to fit the stress and the vertical displacement distributions were obtained. The resulting fitted values were compared to those calculated directly by the finite element method (FEM). Finally, a checking and clinical validation of the statistical study were made, by studying two cases of real patients. The vertical displacements and principal stress distribution obtained for the specific tracheal model were in agreement with those calculated by FE simulations with a maximum absolute error of 1.2 mm and 0.17 MPa, respectively. It was concluded that the resulting decision support tool provides a fast, accurate and simple tool for the thoracic surgeon to predict the stress state of the trachea and the reduction in the ability to swallow after implantation. Thus, it will help them in taking decisions during pre-operative planning of tracheal interventions.

Decision-making in social contexts in youth with ADHD.

PubMed

Ma, Ili; Lambregts-Rommelse, Nanda N J; Buitelaar, Jan K; Cillessen, Antonius H N; Scheres, Anouk P J

2017-03-01

This study examined reward-related decision-making in children and adolescents with ADHD in a social context, using economic games. We furthermore examined the role of individual differences in reward-related decision-making, specifically, the roles of reward sensitivity and prosocial skills. Children and adolescents (9-17 years) with ADHD-combined subtype (n = 29; 20 boys) and healthy controls (n = 38; 20 boys) completed the ultimatum game and dictator game as measures of reward-related decision-making in social contexts. Prosocial skills were measured with the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. The ADHD group had a larger discrepancy between ultimatum game and dictator game offers than controls, indicating strategic rather than fairness driven decisions. This finding was supported by self-reports showing fewer individuals with ADHD than controls who considered fairness as motive for the decisions. Perspective taking or empathic concern did not differ between groups and was not significantly associated with offers. In conclusion, the results suggest that rather than a failure to understand the perspective of others, children and adolescents with ADHD were less motivated by fairness than controls in simple social situations. Results encourage the use of economic games in ADHD research.

An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argentiero, P.; Chin, R.; Beaudet, P.

1982-01-01

An automated technique is presented for designing effective decision tree classifiers predicated only on a priori class statistics. The procedure relies on linear feature extractions and Bayes table look-up decision rules. Associated error matrices are computed and utilized to provide an optimal design of the decision tree at each so-called 'node'. A by-product of this procedure is a simple algorithm for computing the global probability of correct classification assuming the statistical independence of the decision rules. Attention is given to a more precise definition of decision tree classification, the mathematical details on the technique for automated decision tree design, and an example of a simple application of the procedure using class statistics acquired from an actual Landsat scene.

A decision support tool for selecting the optimal sewage sludge treatment.

PubMed

Turunen, Ville; Sorvari, Jaana; Mikola, Anna

2018-02-01

Sewage sludge contains significant amounts of resources, such as nutrients and organic matter. At the same time, the organic contaminants (OC) found in sewage sludge are of growing concern. Consequently, in many European countries incineration is currently favored over recycling in agriculture. This study presents a Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT)-based decision support tool (DST) for facilitating sludge treatment decisions. Essential decision criteria were recognized and prioritized, i.e., weighted, by experts from water utilities. Since the fate of organic contaminants was in focus, a simple scoring method was developed to take into account their environmental risks. The final DST assigns each sludge treatment method a preference score expressing its superiority compared to alternative methods. The DST was validated by testing it with data from two Finnish municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). The validation results of the first case study preferred sludge pyrolysis (preference score: 0.629) to other alternatives: composting and incineration (score 0.580, and 0.484 respectively). The preference scores were influenced by WWTP dependent factors, i.e., the operating environment and the weighting of the criteria. A lack of data emerged as the main practical limitation. Therefore, not all of the relevant criteria could be included in the value tree. More data are needed on the effects of treatment methods on the availability of nutrients, the quality of organic matter and sludge-borne OCs. Despite these shortcomings, the DST proved useful and adaptable in decision-making. It can also help achieve a more transparent, understandable and comprehensive decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Determining A Simple Model of Supplier Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwati

2017-06-01

Supplier selection is a decision with many criteria. Supplier selection model usually involves more than five main criteria and more than 10 sub-criteria. In fact many model includes more than 20 criteria. Too many criteria involved in supplier selection models sometimes make it difficult to apply in many companies. This research focuses on designing supplier selection that easy and simple to be applied in the company. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to weighting criteria. The analysis results there are four criteria that are easy and simple can be used to select suppliers: Price (weight 0.4) shipment (weight 0.3), quality (weight 0.2) and services (weight 0.1). A real case simulation shows that simple model provides the same decision with a more complex model.

Fast support vector data descriptions for novelty detection.

PubMed

Liu, Yi-Hung; Liu, Yan-Chen; Chen, Yen-Jen

2010-08-01

Support vector data description (SVDD) has become a very attractive kernel method due to its good results in many novelty detection problems. However, the decision function of SVDD is expressed in terms of the kernel expansion, which results in a run-time complexity linear in the number of support vectors. For applications where fast real-time response is needed, how to speed up the decision function is crucial. This paper aims at dealing with the issue of reducing the testing time complexity of SVDD. A method called fast SVDD (F-SVDD) is proposed. Unlike the traditional methods which all try to compress a kernel expansion into one with fewer terms, the proposed F-SVDD directly finds the preimage of a feature vector, and then uses a simple relationship between this feature vector and the SVDD sphere center to re-express the center with a single vector. The decision function of F-SVDD contains only one kernel term, and thus the decision boundary of F-SVDD is only spherical in the original space. Hence, the run-time complexity of the F-SVDD decision function is no longer linear in the support vectors, but is a constant, no matter how large the training set size is. In this paper, we also propose a novel direct preimage-finding method, which is noniterative and involves no free parameters. The unique preimage can be obtained in real time by the proposed direct method without taking trial-and-error. For demonstration, several real-world data sets and a large-scale data set, the extended MIT face data set, are used in experiments. In addition, a practical industry example regarding liquid crystal display micro-defect inspection is also used to compare the applicability of SVDD and our proposed F-SVDD when faced with mass data input. The results are very encouraging.

Complacency and bias in human use of automation: an attentional integration.

PubMed

Parasuraman, Raja; Manzey, Dietrich H

2010-06-01

Our aim was to review empirical studies of complacency and bias in human interaction with automated and decision support systems and provide an integrated theoretical model for their explanation. Automation-related complacency and automation bias have typically been considered separately and independently. Studies on complacency and automation bias were analyzed with respect to the cognitive processes involved. Automation complacency occurs under conditions of multiple-task load, when manual tasks compete with the automated task for the operator's attention. Automation complacency is found in both naive and expert participants and cannot be overcome with simple practice. Automation bias results in making both omission and commission errors when decision aids are imperfect. Automation bias occurs in both naive and expert participants, cannot be prevented by training or instructions, and can affect decision making in individuals as well as in teams. While automation bias has been conceived of as a special case of decision bias, our analysis suggests that it also depends on attentional processes similar to those involved in automation-related complacency. Complacency and automation bias represent different manifestations of overlapping automation-induced phenomena, with attention playing a central role. An integrated model of complacency and automation bias shows that they result from the dynamic interaction of personal, situational, and automation-related characteristics. The integrated model and attentional synthesis provides a heuristic framework for further research on complacency and automation bias and design options for mitigating such effects in automated and decision support systems.

Simply criminal: predicting burglars' occupancy decisions with a simple heuristic.

PubMed

Snook, Brent; Dhami, Mandeep K; Kavanagh, Jennifer M

2011-08-01

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory). We tested this assumption by comparing how well a compensatory strategy called Franklin's Rule captured burglars' decision policies regarding residence occupancy compared to a non-compensatory strategy (i.e., Matching Heuristic). Forty burglars each decided on the occupancy of 20 randomly selected photographs of residences (for which actual occupancy was known when the photo was taken). Participants also provided open-ended reports on the cues that influenced their decisions in each case, and then rated the importance of eight cues (e.g., deadbolt visible) over all decisions. Burglars predicted occupancy beyond chance levels. The Matching Heuristic was a significantly better predictor of burglars' decisions than Franklin's Rule, and cue use in the Matching Heuristic better corresponded to the cue ecological validities in the environment than cue use in Franklin's Rule. The most important cue in burglars' models was also the most ecologically valid or predictive of actual occupancy (i.e., vehicle present). The majority of burglars correctly identified the most important cue in their models, and the open-ended technique showed greater correspondence between self-reported and captured cue use than the rating over decision technique. Our findings support a limited rationality perspective to understanding criminal decision making, and have implications for crime prevention.

Shared decision making: what do clinicians need to know and why should they bother?

PubMed

Hoffmann, Tammy C; Légaré, France; Simmons, Magenta B; McNamara, Kevin; McCaffery, Kirsten; Trevena, Lyndal J; Hudson, Ben; Glasziou, Paul P; Del Mar, Christopher B

2014-07-07

Shared decision making enables a clinician and patient to participate jointly in making a health decision, having discussed the options and their benefits and harms, and having considered the patient's values, preferences and circumstances. It is not a single step to be added into a consultation, but a process that can be used to guide decisions about screening, investigations and treatments. The benefits of shared decision making include enabling evidence and patients' preferences to be incorporated into a consultation; improving patient knowledge, risk perception accuracy and patient-clinician communication; and reducing decisional conflict, feeling uninformed and inappropriate use of tests and treatments. Various approaches can be used to guide clinicians through the process. We elaborate on five simple questions that can be used: What will happen if the patient waits and watches? What are the test or treatment options? What are the benefits and harms of each option? How do the benefits and harms weigh up for the patient? Does the patient have enough information to make a choice? Although shared decision making can occur without tools, various types of decision support tools now exist to facilitate it. Misconceptions about shared decision making are hampering its implementation. We address the barriers, as perceived by clinicians. Despite numerous international initiatives to advance shared decision making, very little has occurred in Australia. Consequently, we are lagging behind many other countries and should act urgently.

Logic Learning Machine and standard supervised methods for Hodgkin's lymphoma prognosis using gene expression data and clinical variables.

PubMed

Parodi, Stefano; Manneschi, Chiara; Verda, Damiano; Ferrari, Enrico; Muselli, Marco

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the performance of a set of machine learning techniques in predicting the prognosis of Hodgkin's lymphoma using clinical factors and gene expression data. Analysed samples from 130 Hodgkin's lymphoma patients included a small set of clinical variables and more than 54,000 gene features. Machine learning classifiers included three black-box algorithms ( k-nearest neighbour, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) and two methods based on intelligible rules (Decision Tree and the innovative Logic Learning Machine method). Support Vector Machine clearly outperformed any of the other methods. Among the two rule-based algorithms, Logic Learning Machine performed better and identified a set of simple intelligible rules based on a combination of clinical variables and gene expressions. Decision Tree identified a non-coding gene ( XIST) involved in the early phases of X chromosome inactivation that was overexpressed in females and in non-relapsed patients. XIST expression might be responsible for the better prognosis of female Hodgkin's lymphoma patients.

Issues in Benchmark Metric Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crolotte, Alain

It is true that a metric can influence a benchmark but will esoteric metrics create more problems than they will solve? We answer this question affirmatively by examining the case of the TPC-D metric which used the much debated geometric mean for the single-stream test. We will show how a simple choice influenced the benchmark and its conduct and, to some extent, DBMS development. After examining other alternatives our conclusion is that the “real” measure for a decision-support benchmark is the arithmetic mean.

Development of a patient decision aid for choice of surgical treatment for breast cancer

PubMed Central

Sawka, Carol A.; Goel, Vivek; Mahut, Catherine A.; Taylor, Glen A.; Thiel, Elaine C.; O'Connor, Annette M.; Ackerman, Ida; Burt, Janet H.; Gort, Elaine H.

2002-01-01

Purpose A patient decision aid for the surgical treatment of early stage breast cancer was developed and evaluated. The rationale for its development was the knowledge that breast conserving therapy (lumpectomy followed by breast radiation) and mastectomy produce equivalent outcomes, and the current general agreement that the decision for the type of surgery should rest with the patient. Methods A decision aid was developed and evaluated in sequential pilot studies of 18 and 10 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer who were facing a decision for breast conserving therapy or mastectomy. Both qualitative (general reaction, self‐reported anxiety, clarity, satisfaction) and quantitative (knowledge and decisional conflict) measures were assessed. Results The decision aid consists of an audiotape and workbook and takes 36 min to complete. Based on qualitative comments and satisfaction ratings, 17 of 18 women reported a positive reaction to the decision aid, and all 18 reported that it helped clarify information given by the surgeon. Women did not report an increase in anxiety and 17 of 18 women were either satisfied or very satisfied with the decision aid. Conclusion This pilot study supports the hypothesis that this decision aid may be a helpful adjunct in the decision for surgical management of early stage breast cancer. We are currently conducting a randomized trial of the decision aid versus a simple educational pamphlet to evaluate its efficacy as measured by knowledge, decisional conflict, anxiety and post‐decisional regret. PMID:11281859

Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to specific projects. The framework would facilitate collecting, organizing, analyzing, archiving, and coordinating the information and data necessary to support technical and policy transportation decisions.

Clinical decision support tool for Co-management signalling.

PubMed

Horta, Alexandra Bayão; Salgado, Cátia; Fernandes, Marta; Vieira, Susana; Sousa, João M; Papoila, Ana Luísa; Xavier, Miguel

2018-05-01

Co-management between internists and surgeons of selected patients is becoming one of the pillars of modern clinical management in large hospitals. Defining the patients to be co-managed is essential. The aim of this study is to create a decision tool using real-world patient data collected in the preoperative period, to support the decision on which patients should have the co-management service offered. Data was collected from the electronic clinical health records of patients who had an International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition (ICD-9) code of colorectal surgery during the period between January 2012 and October 2014 in a 200 bed private teaching hospital in Lisbon. ICD-9 codes of colorectal surgery [48.5 and 48.6 (anterior rectal resection and abdominoperineal resection), 45.7 (partial colectomy), 45.8 (Total Colectomy), and 45.9 (Bowel Anastomosis)] were used. Only patients above 18 years old were considered. Patients with more than one procedure were excluded from the study. From these data the authors investigated the construction of predictive models using logistic regression and Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy modelling. Data contains information obtained from the clinical records of a cohort of 344 adult patients. Data from 398 emergent and elective surgeries were collected, from which 54 were excluded because they were second procedures for the same patients. Four preoperative variables were identified as being the most predictive of co-management, in multivariable regression analysis. The final model performed well after being internally validated (0.81 AUC, 77% accuracy, 74% sensitivity, 78% specificity, 93% negative predictive value). The results indicate that the decision process can be more objective and potentially automated. The authors developed a prediction model based on preoperative characteristics, in order to support the decision for the co-management of surgical patients in the postoperative ward setting. The model is a simple bedside decision tool that uses only four numerical variables. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A detailed comparison of optimality and simplicity in perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Shen, Shan; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-01-01

Two prominent ideas in the study of decision-making have been that organisms behave near-optimally, and that they use simple heuristic rules. These principles might be operating in different types of tasks, but this possibility cannot be fully investigated without a direct, rigorous comparison within a single task. Such a comparison was lacking in most previous studies, because a) the optimal decision rule was simple; b) no simple suboptimal rules were considered; c) it was unclear what was optimal, or d) a simple rule could closely approximate the optimal rule. Here, we used a perceptual decision-making task in which the optimal decision rule is well-defined and complex, and makes qualitatively distinct predictions from many simple suboptimal rules. We find that all simple rules tested fail to describe human behavior, that the optimal rule accounts well for the data, and that several complex suboptimal rules are indistinguishable from the optimal one. Moreover, we found evidence that the optimal model is close to the true model: first, the better the trial-to-trial predictions of a suboptimal model agree with those of the optimal model, the better that suboptimal model fits; second, our estimate of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the optimal model and the true model is not significantly different from zero. When observers receive no feedback, the optimal model still describes behavior best, suggesting that sensory uncertainty is implicitly represented and taken into account. Beyond the task and models studied here, our results have implications for best practices of model comparison. PMID:27177259

Incorporating uncertainty into medical decision making: an approach to unexpected test results.

PubMed

Bianchi, Matt T; Alexander, Brian M; Cash, Sydney S

2009-01-01

The utility of diagnostic tests derives from the ability to translate the population concepts of sensitivity and specificity into information that will be useful for the individual patient: the predictive value of the result. As the array of available diagnostic testing broadens, there is a temptation to de-emphasize history and physical findings and defer to the objective rigor of technology. However, diagnostic test interpretation is not always straightforward. One significant barrier to routine use of probability-based test interpretation is the uncertainty inherent in pretest probability estimation, the critical first step of Bayesian reasoning. The context in which this uncertainty presents the greatest challenge is when test results oppose clinical judgment. It is this situation when decision support would be most helpful. The authors propose a simple graphical approach that incorporates uncertainty in pretest probability and has specific application to the interpretation of unexpected results. This method quantitatively demonstrates how uncertainty in disease probability may be amplified when test results are unexpected (opposing clinical judgment), even for tests with high sensitivity and specificity. The authors provide a simple nomogram for determining whether an unexpected test result suggests that one should "switch diagnostic sides.'' This graphical framework overcomes the limitation of pretest probability uncertainty in Bayesian analysis and guides decision making when it is most challenging: interpretation of unexpected test results.

Validation of a DICE Simulation Against a Discrete Event Simulation Implemented Entirely in Code.

PubMed

Möller, Jörgen; Davis, Sarah; Stevenson, Matt; Caro, J Jaime

2017-10-01

Modeling is an essential tool for health technology assessment, and various techniques for conceptualizing and implementing such models have been described. Recently, a new method has been proposed-the discretely integrated condition event or DICE simulation-that enables frequently employed approaches to be specified using a common, simple structure that can be entirely contained and executed within widely available spreadsheet software. To assess if a DICE simulation provides equivalent results to an existing discrete event simulation, a comparison was undertaken. A model of osteoporosis and its management programmed entirely in Visual Basic for Applications and made public by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Decision Support Unit was downloaded and used to guide construction of its DICE version in Microsoft Excel ® . The DICE model was then run using the same inputs and settings, and the results were compared. The DICE version produced results that are nearly identical to the original ones, with differences that would not affect the decision direction of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (<1% discrepancy), despite the stochastic nature of the models. The main limitation of the simple DICE version is its slow execution speed. DICE simulation did not alter the results and, thus, should provide a valid way to design and implement decision-analytic models without requiring specialized software or custom programming. Additional efforts need to be made to speed up execution.

Decision-Related Activity in Macaque V2 for Fine Disparity Discrimination Is Not Compatible with Optimal Linear Readout

PubMed Central

Clery, Stephane; Cumming, Bruce G.

2017-01-01

Fine judgments of stereoscopic depth rely mainly on relative judgments of depth (relative binocular disparity) between objects, rather than judgments of the distance to where the eyes are fixating (absolute disparity). In macaques, visual area V2 is the earliest site in the visual processing hierarchy for which neurons selective for relative disparity have been observed (Thomas et al., 2002). Here, we found that, in macaques trained to perform a fine disparity discrimination task, disparity-selective neurons in V2 were highly selective for the task, and their activity correlated with the animals' perceptual decisions (unexplained by the stimulus). This may partially explain similar correlations reported in downstream areas. Although compatible with a perceptual role of these neurons for the task, the interpretation of such decision-related activity is complicated by the effects of interneuronal “noise” correlations between sensory neurons. Recent work has developed simple predictions to differentiate decoding schemes (Pitkow et al., 2015) without needing measures of noise correlations, and found that data from early sensory areas were compatible with optimal linear readout of populations with information-limiting correlations. In contrast, our data here deviated significantly from these predictions. We additionally tested this prediction for previously reported results of decision-related activity in V2 for a related task, coarse disparity discrimination (Nienborg and Cumming, 2006), thought to rely on absolute disparity. Although these data followed the predicted pattern, they violated the prediction quantitatively. This suggests that optimal linear decoding of sensory signals is not generally a good predictor of behavior in simple perceptual tasks. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Activity in sensory neurons that correlates with an animal's decision is widely believed to provide insights into how the brain uses information from sensory neurons. Recent theoretical work developed simple predictions to differentiate decoding schemes, and found support for optimal linear readout of early sensory populations with information-limiting correlations. Here, we observed decision-related activity for neurons in visual area V2 of macaques performing fine disparity discrimination, as yet the earliest site for this task. These findings, and previously reported results from V2 in a different task, deviated from the predictions for optimal linear readout of a population with information-limiting correlations. Our results suggest that optimal linear decoding of early sensory information is not a general decoding strategy used by the brain. PMID:28100751

Understanding complex clinical reasoning in infectious diseases for improving clinical decision support design.

PubMed

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene R; Jones, Makoto; Del Fiol, Guilherme; Samore, Matthew H

2015-11-30

Clinical experts' cognitive mechanisms for managing complexity have implications for the design of future innovative healthcare systems. The purpose of the study is to examine the constituents of decision complexity and explore the cognitive strategies clinicians use to control and adapt to their information environment. We used Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) methods to interview 10 Infectious Disease (ID) experts at the University of Utah and Salt Lake City Veterans Administration Medical Center. Participants were asked to recall a complex, critical and vivid antibiotic-prescribing incident using the Critical Decision Method (CDM), a type of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA). Using the four iterations of the Critical Decision Method, questions were posed to fully explore the incident, focusing in depth on the clinical components underlying the complexity. Probes were included to assess cognitive and decision strategies used by participants. The following three themes emerged as the constituents of decision complexity experienced by the Infectious Diseases experts: 1) the overall clinical picture does not match the pattern, 2) a lack of comprehension of the situation and 3) dealing with social and emotional pressures such as fear and anxiety. All these factors contribute to decision complexity. These factors almost always occurred together, creating unexpected events and uncertainty in clinical reasoning. Five themes emerged in the analyses of how experts deal with the complexity. Expert clinicians frequently used 1) watchful waiting instead of over- prescribing antibiotics, engaged in 2) theory of mind to project and simulate other practitioners' perspectives, reduced very complex cases into simple 3) heuristics, employed 4) anticipatory thinking to plan and re-plan events and consulted with peers to share knowledge, solicit opinions and 5) seek help on patient cases. The cognitive strategies to deal with decision complexity found in this study have important implications for design future decision support systems for the management of complex patients.

Nature of collective decision-making by simple yes/no decision units.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Eisuke; Mizumoto, Nobuaki; Kobayashi, Kazuya; Dobata, Shigeto; Yoshimura, Jin; Watanabe, Saori; Murakami, Yuuka; Matsuura, Kenji

2017-10-31

The study of collective decision-making spans various fields such as brain and behavioural sciences, economics, management sciences, and artificial intelligence. Despite these interdisciplinary applications, little is known regarding how a group of simple 'yes/no' units, such as neurons in the brain, can select the best option among multiple options. One prerequisite for achieving such correct choices by the brain is correct evaluation of relative option quality, which enables a collective decision maker to efficiently choose the best option. Here, we applied a sensory discrimination mechanism using yes/no units with differential thresholds to a model for making a collective choice among multiple options. The performance corresponding to the correct choice was shown to be affected by various parameters. High performance can be achieved by tuning the threshold distribution with the options' quality distribution. The number of yes/no units allocated to each option and its variability profoundly affects performance. When this variability is large, a quorum decision becomes superior to a majority decision under some conditions. The general features of this collective decision-making by a group of simple yes/no units revealed in this study suggest that this mechanism may be useful in applications across various fields.

The attentional drift-diffusion model extends to simple purchasing decisions.

PubMed

Krajbich, Ian; Lu, Dingchao; Camerer, Colin; Rangel, Antonio

2012-01-01

How do we make simple purchasing decisions (e.g., whether or not to buy a product at a given price)? Previous work has shown that the attentional drift-diffusion model (aDDM) can provide accurate quantitative descriptions of the psychometric data for binary and trinary value-based choices, and of how the choice process is guided by visual attention. Here we extend the aDDM to the case of purchasing decisions, and test it using an eye-tracking experiment. We find that the model also provides a reasonably accurate quantitative description of the relationship between choice, reaction time, and visual fixations using parameters that are very similar to those that best fit the previous data. The only critical difference is that the choice biases induced by the fixations are about half as big in purchasing decisions as in binary choices. This suggests that a similar computational process is used to make binary choices, trinary choices, and simple purchasing decisions.

The Attentional Drift-Diffusion Model Extends to Simple Purchasing Decisions

PubMed Central

Krajbich, Ian; Lu, Dingchao; Camerer, Colin; Rangel, Antonio

2012-01-01

How do we make simple purchasing decisions (e.g., whether or not to buy a product at a given price)? Previous work has shown that the attentional drift-diffusion model (aDDM) can provide accurate quantitative descriptions of the psychometric data for binary and trinary value-based choices, and of how the choice process is guided by visual attention. Here we extend the aDDM to the case of purchasing decisions, and test it using an eye-tracking experiment. We find that the model also provides a reasonably accurate quantitative description of the relationship between choice, reaction time, and visual fixations using parameters that are very similar to those that best fit the previous data. The only critical difference is that the choice biases induced by the fixations are about half as big in purchasing decisions as in binary choices. This suggests that a similar computational process is used to make binary choices, trinary choices, and simple purchasing decisions. PMID:22707945

Biasing moral decisions by exploiting the dynamics of eye gaze.

PubMed

Pärnamets, Philip; Johansson, Petter; Hall, Lars; Balkenius, Christian; Spivey, Michael J; Richardson, Daniel C

2015-03-31

Eye gaze is a window onto cognitive processing in tasks such as spatial memory, linguistic processing, and decision making. We present evidence that information derived from eye gaze can be used to change the course of individuals' decisions, even when they are reasoning about high-level, moral issues. Previous studies have shown that when an experimenter actively controls what an individual sees the experimenter can affect simple decisions with alternatives of almost equal valence. Here we show that if an experimenter passively knows when individuals move their eyes the experimenter can change complex moral decisions. This causal effect is achieved by simply adjusting the timing of the decisions. We monitored participants' eye movements during a two-alternative forced-choice task with moral questions. One option was randomly predetermined as a target. At the moment participants had fixated the target option for a set amount of time we terminated their deliberation and prompted them to choose between the two alternatives. Although participants were unaware of this gaze-contingent manipulation, their choices were systematically biased toward the target option. We conclude that even abstract moral cognition is partly constituted by interactions with the immediate environment and is likely supported by gaze-dependent decision processes. By tracking the interplay between individuals, their sensorimotor systems, and the environment, we can influence the outcome of a decision without directly manipulating the content of the information available to them.

Decision support system based on DPSIR framework for a low flow Mediterranean river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangash, Rubab Fatima; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta

2013-04-01

The application of decision making practices are effectively enhanced by adopting a procedural approach setting out a general methodological framework within which specific methods, models and tools can be integrated. Integrated Catchment Management is a process that recognizes the river catchment as a basic organizing unit for understanding and managing ecosystem process. Decision support system becomes more complex by considering unavoidable human activities within a catchment that are motivated by multiple and often competing criteria and/or constraints. DPSIR is a causal framework for describing the interactions between society and the environment. This framework has been adopted by the European Environment Agency and the components of this model are: Driving forces, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses. The proposed decision support system is a two step framework based on DPSIR. Considering first three component of DPSIR, Driving forces, Pressures and States, hydrological and ecosystem services models are developed. The last two components, Impact and Responses, helped to develop Bayesian Network to integrate the models. This decision support system also takes account of social, economic and environmental aspects. A small river of Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), Francoli River with a low flow (~2 m3/s) is selected for integration of catchment assessment models and to improve knowledge transfer from research to the stakeholders with a view to improve decision making process. DHI's MIKE BASIN software is used to evaluate the low-flow Francolí River with respect to the water bodies' characteristics and also to assess the impact of human activities aiming to achieve good water status for all waters to comply with the WFD's River Basin Management Plan. Based on ArcGIS, MIKE BASIN is a versatile decision support tool that provides a simple and powerful framework for managers and stakeholders to address multisectoral allocation and environmental issues in river basins. While InVEST is a spatially explicit tool, used to model and map a suite of ecosystem services caused by land cover changes or climate change impacts. Moreover, results obtained from low-flow hydrological simulation and ecosystem services models serves as useful tools to develop decision support system based on DPSIR framework by integrating models. Bayesian Networks is used as a knowledge integration and visualization tool to summarize the outcomes of hydrological and ecosystem services models at the "Response" stage of DPSIR. Bayesian Networks provide a framework for modelling the logical relationship between catchment variables and decision objectives by quantifying the strength of these relationships using conditional probabilities. Participatory nature of this framework can provide better communication of water research, particularly in the context of a perceived lack of future awareness-raising with the public that helps to develop more sustainable water management strategies. Acknowledgements The present study was financially supported by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the project SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065). R. F. Bangash also received PhD fellowship from AGAUR (Commissioner for Universities and Research of the Department of Innovation, Universities and Enterprise of the "Generalitat de Catalunya" and the European Social Fund).

Effect of noise in intelligent cellular decision making.

PubMed

Bates, Russell; Blyuss, Oleg; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Zaikin, Alexey

2015-01-01

Similar to intelligent multicellular neural networks controlling human brains, even single cells, surprisingly, are able to make intelligent decisions to classify several external stimuli or to associate them. This happens because of the fact that gene regulatory networks can perform as perceptrons, simple intelligent schemes known from studies on Artificial Intelligence. We study the role of genetic noise in intelligent decision making at the genetic level and show that noise can play a constructive role helping cells to make a proper decision. We show this using the example of a simple genetic classifier able to classify two external stimuli.

Evidence synthesis for decision making 7: a reviewer's checklist.

PubMed

Ades, A E; Caldwell, Deborah M; Reken, Stefanie; Welton, Nicky J; Sutton, Alex J; Dias, Sofia

2013-07-01

This checklist is for the review of evidence syntheses for treatment efficacy used in decision making based on either efficacy or cost-effectiveness. It is intended to be used for pairwise meta-analysis, indirect comparisons, and network meta-analysis, without distinction. It does not generate a quality rating and is not prescriptive. Instead, it focuses on a series of questions aimed at revealing the assumptions that the authors of the synthesis are expecting readers to accept, the adequacy of the arguments authors advance in support of their position, and the need for further analyses or sensitivity analyses. The checklist is intended primarily for those who review evidence syntheses, including indirect comparisons and network meta-analyses, in the context of decision making but will also be of value to those submitting syntheses for review, whether to decision-making bodies or journals. The checklist has 4 main headings: A) definition of the decision problem, B) methods of analysis and presentation of results, C) issues specific to network synthesis, and D) embedding the synthesis in a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model. The headings and implicit advice follow directly from the other tutorials in this series. A simple table is provided that could serve as a pro forma checklist.

Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.

PubMed

Borsuk, M E; Tomassini, L

2005-01-01

Statistical decision theory can provide useful support for climate change decisions made under conditions of uncertainty. However, the probability distributions used to calculate expected costs in decision theory are themselves subject to uncertainty, disagreement, or ambiguity in their specification. This imprecision can be described using sets of probability measures, from which upper and lower bounds on expectations can be calculated. However, many representations, or classes, of probability measures are possible. We describe six of the more useful classes and demonstrate how each may be used to represent climate change uncertainties. When expected costs are specified by bounds, rather than precise values, the conventional decision criterion of minimum expected cost is insufficient to reach a unique decision. Alternative criteria are required, and the criterion of minimum upper expected cost may be desirable because it is consistent with the precautionary principle. Using simple climate and economics models as an example, we determine the carbon dioxide emissions levels that have minimum upper expected cost for each of the selected classes. There can be wide differences in these emissions levels and their associated costs, emphasizing the need for care when selecting an appropriate class.

Framing effect debiasing in medical decision making.

PubMed

Almashat, Sammy; Ayotte, Brian; Edelstein, Barry; Margrett, Jennifer

2008-04-01

Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts. The present study investigated the effects of a debiasing procedure designed to prevent the framing effect for young adults who made decisions based on hypothetical medical decision-making vignettes. The debiasing technique involved participants listing advantages and disadvantages of each treatment prior to making a choice. One hundred and two undergraduate students read a set of three medical treatment vignettes that presented information in terms of different outcome probabilities under either debiasing or control conditions. The framing effect was demonstrated by the control group in two of the three vignettes. The debiasing group successfully avoided the framing effect for both of these vignettes. These results further support previous findings of the framing effect as well as an effective debiasing technique. This study improved upon previous framing debiasing studies by including a control group and personal medical scenarios, as well as demonstrating debiasing in a framing condition in which the framing effect was demonstrated without a debiasing procedure. The findings suggest a relatively simple manipulation may circumvent the use of decision-making heuristics in patients.

A cumulative energy demand indicator (CED), life cycle based, for industrial waste management decision making.

PubMed

Puig, Rita; Fullana-I-Palmer, Pere; Baquero, Grau; Riba, Jordi-Roger; Bala, Alba

2013-12-01

Life cycle thinking is a good approach to be used for environmental decision-support, although the complexity of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies sometimes prevents their wide use. The purpose of this paper is to show how LCA methodology can be simplified to be more useful for certain applications. In order to improve waste management in Catalonia (Spain), a Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (LCA-based) has been used to obtain four mathematical models to help the government in the decision of preventing or allowing a specific waste from going out of the borders. The conceptual equations and all the subsequent developments and assumptions made to obtain the simplified models are presented. One of the four models is discussed in detail, presenting the final simplified equation to be subsequently used by the government in decision making. The resulting model has been found to be scientifically robust, simple to implement and, above all, fulfilling its purpose: the limitation of waste transport out of Catalonia unless the waste recovery operations are significantly better and justify this transport. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Discrimination in lexical decision

PubMed Central

Feldman, Laurie Beth; Ramscar, Michael; Hendrix, Peter; Baayen, R. Harald

2017-01-01

In this study we present a novel set of discrimination-based indicators of language processing derived from Naive Discriminative Learning (ndl) theory. We compare the effectiveness of these new measures with classical lexical-distributional measures—in particular, frequency counts and form similarity measures—to predict lexical decision latencies when a complete morphological segmentation of masked primes is or is not possible. Data derive from a re-analysis of a large subset of decision latencies from the English Lexicon Project, as well as from the results of two new masked priming studies. Results demonstrate the superiority of discrimination-based predictors over lexical-distributional predictors alone, across both the simple and primed lexical decision tasks. Comparable priming after masked corner and cornea type primes, across two experiments, fails to support early obligatory segmentation into morphemes as predicted by the morpho-orthographic account of reading. Results fit well with ndl theory, which, in conformity with Word and Paradigm theory, rejects the morpheme as a relevant unit of analysis. Furthermore, results indicate that readers with greater spelling proficiency and larger vocabularies make better use of orthographic priors and handle lexical competition more efficiently. PMID:28235015

Discrimination in lexical decision.

PubMed

Milin, Petar; Feldman, Laurie Beth; Ramscar, Michael; Hendrix, Peter; Baayen, R Harald

2017-01-01

In this study we present a novel set of discrimination-based indicators of language processing derived from Naive Discriminative Learning (ndl) theory. We compare the effectiveness of these new measures with classical lexical-distributional measures-in particular, frequency counts and form similarity measures-to predict lexical decision latencies when a complete morphological segmentation of masked primes is or is not possible. Data derive from a re-analysis of a large subset of decision latencies from the English Lexicon Project, as well as from the results of two new masked priming studies. Results demonstrate the superiority of discrimination-based predictors over lexical-distributional predictors alone, across both the simple and primed lexical decision tasks. Comparable priming after masked corner and cornea type primes, across two experiments, fails to support early obligatory segmentation into morphemes as predicted by the morpho-orthographic account of reading. Results fit well with ndl theory, which, in conformity with Word and Paradigm theory, rejects the morpheme as a relevant unit of analysis. Furthermore, results indicate that readers with greater spelling proficiency and larger vocabularies make better use of orthographic priors and handle lexical competition more efficiently.

Competing dopamine neurons drive oviposition choice for ethanol in Drosophila.

PubMed

Azanchi, Reza; Kaun, Karla R; Heberlein, Ulrike

2013-12-24

The neural circuits that mediate behavioral choice evaluate and integrate information from the environment with internal demands and then initiate a behavioral response. Even circuits that support simple decisions remain poorly understood. In Drosophila melanogaster, oviposition on a substrate containing ethanol enhances fitness; however, little is known about the neural mechanisms mediating this important choice behavior. Here, we characterize the neural modulation of this simple choice and show that distinct subsets of dopaminergic neurons compete to either enhance or inhibit egg-laying preference for ethanol-containing food. Moreover, activity in α'β' neurons of the mushroom body and a subset of ellipsoid body ring neurons (R2) is required for this choice. We propose a model where competing dopaminergic systems modulate oviposition preference to adjust to changes in natural oviposition substrates.

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

PubMed

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

A streamlined sustainability assessment tool for improved decision making in the urban water industry.

PubMed

Schulz, Matthias; Short, Michael D; Peters, Gregory M

2012-01-01

Water supply is a key consideration in sustainable urban planning. Ideally, detailed quantitative sustainability assessments are undertaken during the planning stage to inform the decision-making process. In reality, however, the significant time and cost associated with undertaking such detailed environmental and economic assessments is often cited as a barrier to wider implementation of these key decision support tools, particularly for decisions made at the local or regional government level. In an attempt to overcome this barrier of complexity, 4 water service providers in Melbourne, Australia, funded the development of a publicly available streamlined Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool, which is aimed at a wide range of decision makers to assist them in broadening the type and number of water servicing options that can be considered for greenfield or backlog developments. The Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool consists of a simple user interface and draws on life cycle inventory data to allow for rapid estimation of the environmental and economic performance of different water servicing scenarios. Scenario options can then be further prioritized by means of an interactive multicriteria analysis. The intent of this article is to identify the key issues to be considered in a streamlined sustainability assessment tool for the urban water industry, and to demonstrate the feasibility of generating accurate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings, using such a tool. We use a real-life case study example consisting of 3 separate scenarios for a planned urban development to show that this kind of tool can emulate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings outcomes obtained through more detailed studies. This simplified approach is aimed at supporting "sustainability thinking" early in the decision-making process, thereby encouraging more sustainable water and sewerage infrastructure solutions. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

A Bayesian Attractor Model for Perceptual Decision Making

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2015-01-01

Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143

Testing take-the-best in new and changing environments.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D; Blanco, Gabrielle; Bo, Nikole

2017-08-01

Take-the-best is a decision-making strategy that chooses between alternatives, by searching the cues representing the alternatives in order of cue validity, and choosing the alternative with the first discriminating cue. Theoretical support for take-the-best comes from the "fast and frugal" approach to modeling cognition, which assumes decision-making strategies need to be fast to cope with a competitive world, and be simple to be robust to uncertainty and environmental change. We contribute to the empirical evaluation of take-the-best in two ways. First, we generate four new environments-involving bridge lengths, hamburger prices, theme park attendances, and US university rankings-supplementing the relatively limited number of naturally cue-based environments previously considered. We find that take-the-best is as accurate as rival decision strategies that use all of the available cues. Secondly, we develop 19 new data sets characterizing the change in cities and their populations in four countries. We find that take-the-best maintains its accuracy and limited search as the environments change, even if cue validities learned in one environment are used to make decisions in another. Once again, we find that take-the-best is as accurate as rival strategies that use all of the cues. We conclude that these new evaluations support the theoretical claims of the accuracy, frugality, and robustness for take-the-best, and that the new data sets provide a valuable resource for the more general study of the relationship between effective decision-making strategies and the environments in which they operate.

A simple framework to analyze water constraints on seasonal transpiration in rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations

PubMed Central

Sopharat, Jessada; Gay, Frederic; Thaler, Philippe; Sdoodee, Sayan; Isarangkool Na Ayutthaya, Supat; Tanavud, Charlchai; Hammecker, Claude; Do, Frederic C.

2015-01-01

Climate change and fast extension in climatically suboptimal areas threaten the sustainability of rubber tree cultivation. A simple framework based on reduction factors of potential transpiration was tested to evaluate the water constraints on seasonal transpiration in tropical sub-humid climates, according pedoclimatic conditions. We selected a representative, mature stand in a drought-prone area. Tree transpiration, evaporative demand and soil water availability were measured every day over 15 months. The results showed that basic relationships with evaporative demand, leaf area index and soil water availability were globally supported. However, the implementation of a regulation of transpiration at high evaporative demand whatever soil water availability was necessary to avoid large overestimates of transpiration. The details of regulation were confirmed by the analysis of canopy conductance response to vapor pressure deficit. The final objective of providing hierarchy between the main regulation factors of seasonal and annual transpiration was achieved. In the tested environmental conditions, the impact of atmospheric drought appeared larger importance than soil drought contrary to expectations. Our results support the interest in simple models to provide a first diagnosis of water constraints on transpiration with limited data, and to help decision making toward more sustainable rubber plantations. PMID:25610443

Younger and older jurors: the influence of environmental supports on memory performance and decision making in complex trials.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, J M

2000-11-01

This study compared memory and decision making by younger (aged 19-35) and older (aged 55-75) adults who had viewed a 2-hr video of a complex civil trial. Participants were tested for free recall, recognition memory, source identification, and the accuracy of their verdicts. The experiment manipulated (a) note taking during the trial and (b) timing of judicial instructions: either before (preinstructed) or after (standard) the presentation of relevant evidence. Judicial instructions provide jurors with a framework for understanding legal concepts such as liability and compensatory damages. Both younger and older adults provided more detailed and cohesive accounts when they were given judicial instructions before the evidence. Other benefits of preinstruction to memory and decision making were limited to older adults. Note-taking effects were generally limited but were consistent across age groups. The results highlight the potential value of relatively simple interventions for improving cognitive performance in a real-world setting.

Decision support system development at the Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fox, Timothy J.; Nelson, J. C.; Rohweder, Jason J.

2014-01-01

A Decision Support System (DSS) can be defined in many ways. The working definition used by the U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) is, “A spatially based computer application or data that assists a researcher or manager in making decisions.” This is quite a broad definition—and it needs to be, because the possibilities for types of DSSs are limited only by the user group and the developer’s imagination. There is no one DSS; the types of DSSs are as diverse as the problems they help solve. This diversity requires that DSSs be built in a variety of ways, using the most appropriate methods and tools for the individual application. The skills of potential DSS users vary widely as well, further necessitating multiple approaches to DSS development. Some small, highly trained user groups may want a powerful modeling tool with extensive functionality at the expense of ease of use. Other user groups less familiar with geographic information system (GIS) and spatial data may want an easy-to-use application for a nontechnical audience. UMESC has been developing DSSs for almost 20 years. Our DSS developers offer our partners a wide variety of technical skills and development options, ranging from the most simple Web page or small application to complex modeling application development.

Stakeholders' perceptions of ways to support decisions about health insurance marketplace enrollment: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Housten, A J; Furtado, K; Kaphingst, K A; Kebodeaux, C; McBride, T; Cusanno, B; Politi, M C

2016-11-08

Approximately 29 million individuals are expected to enroll in health insurance using the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace by 2022. Those seeking health insurance struggle to understand insurance options and choose a plan that best suits their needs. We interviewed stakeholders to identify the challenges associated with the ACA Marketplace health insurance enrollment and elicited feedback about what to include in health insurance decision support tools. Interviews were transcribed and themes were identified using inductive thematic analysis. Stakeholders stated that consumers felt frustrated by unclear terminology, high plan costs, and complex calculations required to assess costs. Consumers felt anxious about making the wrong choice and being unable to change plans within a calendar year. Stakeholders recommended using plain language tables defining complex terms, grouping information, and using engaging graphics to communicate information about health insurance. Stakeholders thought that narratives of how others made decisions about insurance might be helpful to consumers, but recommended that they be tailored to the needs of specific consumers. Strategies that clarify health insurance terms using plain language and graphics, acknowledge concern associated with making the wrong choice, calculate and enable cost comparison, and tailor information to consumers' unique needs could benefit those enrolling in ACA Marketplace plans, Narratives developed should be simple and inclusive enough for diverse populations.

Interactive Resource Planning—An Anticipative Concept in the Simulation-Based Decision Support System EXPOSIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike; Pickl, Stefan

2008-10-01

In our research we intend to use experiments to study human behavior in a simulation environment based on a simple Lotka-Volterra predator-prey ecology. The aim is to study the influence of participants' harvesting strategies and certain personality traits derived from [1] on the outcome in terms of sustainability and economic performance. Such an approach is embedded in a research program which intends to develop and understand interactive resource planning processes. We present the general framework as well as the new decision support system EXPOSIM. The key element is the combination of experimental design, analytical understanding of time-discrete systems (especially Lotka-Volterra systems) and economic performance. In the first part, the general role of laboratory experiments is discussed. The second part summarizes the concept of sustainable development. It is taken from [18]. As we use Lotka-Volterra systems as the basis for our simulations a theoretical framework is described afterwards. It is possible to determine optimal behavior for those systems. The empirical setting is based on the empirical approach that the subjects are put into the position of a decision-maker. They are able to model the environment in such a way that harvesting can be observed. We suggest an experimental setting which might lead to new insights in an anticipatory sense.

Techniques for optimal crop selection in a controlled ecological life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormack, Ann; Finn, Cory; Dunsky, Betsy

1993-01-01

A Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) utilizes a plant's natural ability to regenerate air and water while being grown as a food source in a closed life support system. Current plant research is directed toward obtaining quantitative empirical data on the regenerative ability of each species of plant and the system volume and power requirements. Two techniques were adapted to optimize crop species selection while at the same time minimizing the system volume and power requirements. Each allows the level of life support supplied by the plants to be selected, as well as other system parameters. The first technique uses decision analysis in the form of a spreadsheet. The second method, which is used as a comparison with and validation of the first, utilizes standard design optimization techniques. Simple models of plant processes are used in the development of these methods.

Techniques for optimal crop selection in a controlled ecological life support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormack, Ann; Finn, Cory; Dunsky, Betsy

1992-01-01

A Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) utilizes a plant's natural ability to regenerate air and water while being grown as a food source in a closed life support system. Current plant research is directed toward obtaining quantitative empirical data on the regenerative ability of each species of plant and the system volume and power requirements. Two techniques were adapted to optimize crop species selection while at the same time minimizing the system volume and power requirements. Each allows the level of life support supplied by the plants to be selected, as well as other system parameters. The first technique uses decision analysis in the form of a spreadsheet. The second method, which is used as a comparison with and validation of the first, utilizes standard design optimization techniques. Simple models of plant processes are used in the development of these methods.

A study on building data warehouse of hospital information system.

PubMed

Li, Ping; Wu, Tao; Chen, Mu; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Wei-guo

2011-08-01

Existing hospital information systems with simple statistical functions cannot meet current management needs. It is well known that hospital resources are distributed with private property rights among hospitals, such as in the case of the regional coordination of medical services. In this study, to integrate and make full use of medical data effectively, we propose a data warehouse modeling method for the hospital information system. The method can also be employed for a distributed-hospital medical service system. To ensure that hospital information supports the diverse needs of health care, the framework of the hospital information system has three layers: datacenter layer, system-function layer, and user-interface layer. This paper discusses the role of a data warehouse management system in handling hospital information from the establishment of the data theme to the design of a data model to the establishment of a data warehouse. Online analytical processing tools assist user-friendly multidimensional analysis from a number of different angles to extract the required data and information. Use of the data warehouse improves online analytical processing and mitigates deficiencies in the decision support system. The hospital information system based on a data warehouse effectively employs statistical analysis and data mining technology to handle massive quantities of historical data, and summarizes from clinical and hospital information for decision making. This paper proposes the use of a data warehouse for a hospital information system, specifically a data warehouse for the theme of hospital information to determine latitude, modeling and so on. The processing of patient information is given as an example that demonstrates the usefulness of this method in the case of hospital information management. Data warehouse technology is an evolving technology, and more and more decision support information extracted by data mining and with decision-making technology is required for further research.

Judgment and decision making.

PubMed

Fischhoff, Baruch

2010-09-01

The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Value encoding in single neurons in the human amygdala during decision making.

PubMed

Jenison, Rick L; Rangel, Antonio; Oya, Hiroyuki; Kawasaki, Hiroto; Howard, Matthew A

2011-01-05

A growing consensus suggests that the brain makes simple choices by assigning values to the stimuli under consideration and then comparing these values to make a decision. However, the network involved in computing the values has not yet been fully characterized. Here, we investigated whether the human amygdala plays a role in the computation of stimulus values at the time of decision making. We recorded single neuron activity from the amygdala of awake patients while they made simple purchase decisions over food items. We found 16 amygdala neurons, located primarily in the basolateral nucleus that responded linearly to the values assigned to individual items.

ReSTART: A Novel Framework for Resource-Based Triage in Mass-Casualty Events.

PubMed

Mills, Alex F; Argon, Nilay T; Ziya, Serhan; Hiestand, Brian; Winslow, James

2014-01-01

Current guidelines for mass-casualty triage do not explicitly use information about resource availability. Even though this limitation has been widely recognized, how it should be addressed remains largely unexplored. The authors present a novel framework developed using operations research methods to account for resource limitations when determining priorities for transportation of critically injured patients. To illustrate how this framework can be used, they also develop two specific example methods, named ReSTART and Simple-ReSTART, both of which extend the widely adopted triage protocol Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment (START) by using a simple calculation to determine priorities based on the relative scarcity of transportation resources. The framework is supported by three techniques from operations research: mathematical analysis, optimization, and discrete-event simulation. The authors? algorithms were developed using mathematical analysis and optimization and then extensively tested using 9,000 discrete-event simulations on three distributions of patient severity (representing low, random, and high acuity). For each incident, the expected number of survivors was calculated under START, ReSTART, and Simple-ReSTART. A web-based decision support tool was constructed to help providers make prioritization decisions in the aftermath of mass-casualty incidents based on ReSTART. In simulations, ReSTART resulted in significantly lower mortality than START regardless of which severity distribution was used (paired t test, p<.01). Mean decrease in critical mortality, the percentage of immediate and delayed patients who die, was 8.5% for low-acuity distribution (range ?2.2% to 21.1%), 9.3% for random distribution (range ?0.2% to 21.2%), and 9.1% for high-acuity distribution (range ?0.7% to 21.1%). Although the critical mortality improvement due to ReSTART was different for each of the three severity distributions, the variation was less than 1 percentage point, indicating that the ReSTART policy is relatively robust to different severity distributions. Taking resource limitations into account in mass-casualty situations, triage has the potential to increase the expected number of survivors. Further validation is required before field implementation; however, the framework proposed in here can serve as the foundation for future work in this area. 2014.

The utility of decision support, clinical guidelines, and financial incentives as tools to achieve improved clinical performance.

PubMed

Goldfarb, S

1999-03-01

Whether one seeks to reduce inappropriate utilization of resources, improve diagnostic accuracy, increase utilization of effective therapies, or reduce the incidence of complications, the key to change is physician involvement in change. Unfortunately, a simple approach to the problem of inducing change in physician behavior is not available. There is a generally accepted view that expert, best-practice guidelines will improve clinical performance. However, there may be a bias to report positive results and a lack of careful analysis of guideline usage in routine practice in a "postmarketing" study akin to that seen in the pharmaceutical industry. Systems that allow the reliable assessment of quality of outcomes, efficiency of resource utilization, and accurate assessment of the risks associated with the care of given patient populations must be widely available before deciding whether an incentive-based system for providing the full range of medical care is feasible. Decision support focuses on providing information, ideally at the "point of service" and in the context of a particular clinical situation. Rules are self-imposed by physicians and are therefore much more likely to be adopted. As health care becomes corporatized, with increasing numbers of physicians employed by large organizations with the capacity to provide detailed information on the nature and quality of clinical care, it is possible that properly constructed guidelines, appropriate financial incentives, and robust forms of decision support will lead to a physician-led, process improvement approach to more rational and affordable health care.

The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) Approach to Reducing Risk of Flooding and Water Pollution in Farmed Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewett, Caspar J. M.; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark

2014-05-01

Intense farming plays a key role in contributing to problems such as increased flood risk, soil erosion and poor water quality. This means that there is great potential for agricultural practitioners to play a major part in reducing multiple risks through better land-use management. Greater understanding by farmers, land managers, practitioners and policy-makers of the ways in which farmed landscapes contribute to risks and the ways in which those risks might be mitigated can be an essential component in improving practice. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) approach involves the development of a range of visualization and communication tools to help compare the risks associated with different farming practices and explore options to manage runoff. DSMs are simple decision support systems intended for use by the non-expert which combine expert hydrological evidence with local knowledge of runoff patterns. They are developed through direct engagement with stakeholders, ensuring that the examples and language used makes sense to end-users. A key element of the tools is that they show the current conditions of the land and describe extremes of land-use management within a hydrological and agricultural land-management context. The tools include conceptual models of a series of pre-determined runoff scenarios, providing the end-user with a variety of potential land management practices and runoff management options. Visual examples of different farming practices are used to illustrate the impact of good and bad practice on specific problems such as nutrient export or risk of flooding. These show both how current conditions cause problems downstream and how systems are vulnerable to changes in climate and land-use intensification. The level of risk associated with a particular land management option is represented by a mapping on a two- or three-dimensional matrix. Interactive spreadsheet-based tools are developed in which multiple questions allow the user to explore different management options and see the impact of decisions plotted as a risk level on the DSM. They employ a ranking methodology combined with a simple mapping of information onto a visual matrix. A nominal scoring system is used to rank higher or lower runoff risk. The end-user can then assess numerous land use and runoff management options to lower risk. The objective is to encourage policy makers, catchment managers and farmers to produce resilient local landscapes at minimal cost. A number of DSMs have been developed successfully over a number of years working with a variety of stakeholders in the UK, including the Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM), The Nitrate Export Risk Matrix (NO3RM) and arable and livestock versions of the Floods and Agriculture Risk Matrix (FARM) (available from http://research.ncl.ac.uk/thefarm). Despite uncertainty, the tools do contribute to stakeholders having greater confidence in making decisions to make landscapes more resilient. DSMs have been taken up widely in the UK by bodies such as the Environment Agency and Defra, and have been successfully employed within wider decision support frameworks alongside modelling at multiple scales. Such tools could be used in similar farmed landscapes internationally.

A work-centered cognitively based architecture for decision support: the work-centered infomediary layer (WIL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachary, Wayne; Eggleston, Robert; Donmoyer, Jason; Schremmer, Serge

2003-09-01

Decision-making is strongly shaped and influenced by the work context in which decisions are embedded. This suggests that decision support needs to be anchored by a model (implicit or explicit) of the work process, in contrast to traditional approaches that anchor decision support to either context free decision models (e.g., utility theory) or to detailed models of the external (e.g., battlespace) environment. An architecture for cognitively-based, work centered decision support called the Work-centered Informediary Layer (WIL) is presented. WIL separates decision support into three overall processes that build and dynamically maintain an explicit context model, use the context model to identify opportunities for decision support and tailor generic decision-support strategies to the current context and offer them to the system-user/decision-maker. The generic decision support strategies include such things as activity/attention aiding, decision process structuring, work performance support (selective, contextual automation), explanation/ elaboration, infosphere data retrieval, and what if/action-projection and visualization. A WIL-based application is a work-centered decision support layer that provides active support without intent inferencing, and that is cognitively based without requiring classical cognitive task analyses. Example WIL applications are detailed and discussed.

Psychosocial working conditions and self-reported long-term illness: a population-based study of Swedish-born and foreign-born employed persons.

PubMed

Sundquist, Jan; Ostergren, Per-Olof; Sundquist, Kristina; Johansson, Sven-Erik

2003-11-01

Knowledge pertaining to the relationship between migration status and psychosocial job characteristics and long-term illness is not readily available in the international literature. The aim of this study is to analyse the cross-sectional associations between high psychological job demands and low decision latitude (high job strain), work-related social support and long-term illness among foreign-born and Swedish-born people. The present study combines four annual simple random samples covering 1994-97 from the Swedish Annual Level of Living Survey (SALLS). A sub-sample, including only employed persons and consisting of 10,072 Swedish-born persons, 710 labour migrants and 333 refugees aged 25-64 years, was analysed using logistic regression. Refugees had a higher risk (OR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.05-1.69) of long-term illness than Swedes. Moreover, those experiencing both high job demands and a low decision latitude ran an increased risk (OR=1.74; 95% CI: 1.42-2.13) of long-term illness. About 63% of the refugees among the unskilled/skilled manual workers had low decision latitudes in comparison with 17% of the intermediate and senior salaried employees. There were only small differences in job demands between labour immigrants, refugees and Swedes. There was no interaction between migration status and high job strain. However, refugees with low social support had nearly twice as high a risk of long-term illness as Swedes with high-level work-related social support. Refugees ran a higher risk of long-term illness than Swedes. Although there were no differences in risk between labour immigrants, refugees and Swedes under job strain, refugees with low work-related social support had a high risk of long-term illness. Unskilled/skilled refugee workers had lower decision latitudes than Swedes.

Overcoming barriers to cancer-helpline professionals providing decision support for callers: an implementation study.

PubMed

Stacey, Dawn; Chambers, Suzanne K; Jacobsen, Mary Jane; Dunn, Jeff

2008-11-01

To evaluate the effect of an intervention on healthcare professionals' perceptions of barriers influencing their provision of decision support for callers facing cancer-related decisions. A pre- and post-test study guided by the Ottawa Model of Research Use. Australian statewide cancer call center that provides public access to information and supportive cancer services. 34 nurses, psychologists, and other allied healthcare professionals at the cancer call center. Participants completed baseline measures and, subsequently, were exposed to an intervention that included a decision support tutorial, coaching protocol, and skill-building workshop. Strategies were implemented to address organizational barriers. Perceived barriers and facilitators influencing provision of decision support, decision support knowledge, quality of decision support provided to standardized callers, and call length. Postintervention participants felt more prepared, confident in providing decision support, and aware of decision support resources. They had a stronger belief that providing decision support was within their role. Participants significantly improved their knowledge and provided higher-quality decision support to standardized callers without changing call length. The implementation intervention overcame several identified barriers that influenced call center professionals when providing decision support. Nurses and other helpline professionals have the potential to provide decision support designed to help callers understand cancer information, clarify their values associated with their options, and reduce decisional conflict. However, they require targeted education and organizational interventions to reduce their perceived barriers to providing decision support.

The hidden traps in decision making.

PubMed

Hammond, J S; Keeney, R L; Raiffa, H

1998-01-01

Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.

Key stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability and usefulness of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs.

PubMed

Ernecoff, Natalie C; Witteman, Holly O; Chon, Kristen; Chen, Yanquan Iris; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Chiarchiaro, Jared; Shotsberger, Kaitlin J; Shields, Anne-Marie; Myers, Brad A; Hough, Catherine L; Carson, Shannon S; Lo, Bernard; Matthay, Michael A; Anderson, Wendy G; Peterson, Michael W; Steingrub, Jay S; Arnold, Robert M; White, Douglas B

2016-06-01

Although barriers to shared decision making in intensive care units are well documented, there are currently no easily scaled interventions to overcome these problems. We sought to assess stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability, usefulness, and design suggestions for a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making in ICUs. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with 58 key stakeholders (30 surrogates and 28 ICU care providers). Interviews explored stakeholders' perceptions about the acceptability of a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making, including the usefulness of modules focused on orienting families to the ICU, educating them about the surrogate's role, completing a question prompt list, eliciting patient values, educating about treatment options, eliciting perceptions about prognosis, and providing psychosocial support resources. The interviewer also elicited stakeholders' design suggestions for such a tool. We used constant comparative methods to identify key themes that arose during the interviews. Overall, 95% (55/58) of participants perceived the proposed tool to be acceptable, with 98% (57/58) of interviewees finding six or more of the seven content domains acceptable. Stakeholders identified several potential benefits of the tool including that it would help families prepare for the surrogate role and for family meetings as well as give surrogates time and a framework to think about the patient's values and treatment options. Key design suggestions included: conceptualize the tool as a supplement to rather than a substitute for surrogate-clinician communication; make the tool flexible with respect to how, where, and when surrogates can access the tool; incorporate interactive exercises; use video and narration to minimize the cognitive load of the intervention; and build an extremely simple user interface to maximize usefulness for individuals with low computer literacy. There is broad support among stakeholders for the use of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs. Eliciting the perspectives of key stakeholders early in the design process yielded important insights to create a tool tailored to the needs of surrogates and care providers in ICUs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Factors influencing access to education, decision making, and receipt of preferred dialysis modality in unplanned dialysis start patients.

PubMed

Machowska, Anna; Alscher, Mark Dominik; Reddy Vanga, Satyanarayana; Koch, Michael; Aarup, Michael; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Lindholm, Bengt; Rutherford, Peter A

2016-01-01

Unplanned dialysis start (UPS) leads to worse clinical outcomes than planned start, and only a minority of patients ever receive education on this topic and are able to make a modality choice, particularly for home dialysis. This study aimed to determine the predictive factors for patients receiving education, making a decision, and receiving their preferred modality choice in UPS patients following a UPS educational program (UPS-EP). The Offering Patients Therapy Options in Unplanned Start (OPTiONS) study examined the impact of the implementation of a specific UPS-EP, including decision support tools and pathway improvement on dialysis modality choice. Linear regression models were used to examine the factors predicting three key steps: referral and receipt of UPS-EP, modality decision making, and actual delivery of preferred modality choice. A simple economic assessment was performed to examine the potential benefit of implementing UPS-EP in terms of dialysis costs. The majority of UPS patients could receive UPS-EP (214/270 patients) and were able to make a decision (177/214), although not all patients received their preferred choice (159/177). Regression analysis demonstrated that the initial dialysis modality was a predictive factor for referral and receipt of UPS-EP and modality decision making. In contrast, age was a predictor for referral and receipt of UPS-EP only, and comorbidity was not a predictor for any step, except for myocardial infarction, which was a weak predictor for lower likelihood of receiving preferred modality. Country practices predicted UPS-EP receipt and decision making. Economic analysis demonstrated the potential benefit of UPS-EP implementation because dialysis modality costs were associated with modality distribution driven by patient preference. Education and decision support can allow UPS patients to understand their options and choose dialysis modality, and attention needs to be focused on ensuring equity of access to educational programs, especially for the elderly. Physician practice and culture across units/countries is an important predictor of UPS patient management and modality choice independent of patient-related factors. Additional work is required to understand and improve patient pathways to ensure that modality preference is enacted. There appears to be a cost benefit of delivering education, supporting choice, and ensuring that the choice is enacted in UPS patients.

A high-level synthesis of oil spill response equipment and countermeasures.

PubMed

Ventikos, Nikolaos P; Vergetis, Emmanouil; Psaraftis, Harilaos N; Triantafyllou, George

2004-02-27

This paper presents an operational synthesis of major oil spill response methods (mechanical, chemical, etc.) and the corresponding oil response equipment for sea context (booms, skimmers, etc.). We focus on important features of oil spill response, in order to formulate a decision-based database, capable of supporting the development of a complete oil spill response operation. Moreover, we classify these findings and introduce simple formatting and standards to supply predictive tools for oil spill models. The actual goal of this paper is to come up with a decision-driven process, which can provide for a realistic choice of oil spill response equipment in the design of the primary oil response phase. This is intended to lead to a prompt, logical, and well-prepared oil spill response operation satisfying time and cost criteria and protecting the marine environment.

Financial capacity in older adults: a growing concern for clinicians.

PubMed

Gardiner, Paul A; Byrne, Gerard J; Mitchell, Leander K; Pachana, Nancy A

2015-02-02

Older people with cognitive impairment and/or dementia may be particularly vulnerable to diminished financial decision-making capacity. Financial capacity refers to the ability to satisfactorily manage one's financial affairs in a manner consistent with personal self-interest and values. Impairment of financial capacity makes the older individual vulnerable to financial exploitation, may negatively affect their family's financial situation and places strain on relationships within the family. Clinicians are often on the front line of responding to queries regarding decision-making capacity, and clinical evaluation options are often not well understood. Assessment of financial capacity should include formal objective assessment in addition to a clinical interview and gathering contextual data. Development of a flexible, empirically supported and clinically relevant assessment approach that spans all dimensions of financial capacity yet is simple enough to be used by non-specialist clinicians is needed.

The effect of completing a surrogacy information and decision-making tool upon admission to an intensive care unit on length of stay and charges.

PubMed

Hatler, Carol W; Grove, Charlene; Strickland, Stephanie; Barron, Starr; White, Bruce D

2012-01-01

Many critically ill patients in intensive care units (ICUs) are unable to communicate their wishes about goals of care, particularly about the use of life-sustaining treatments. Surrogates and clinicians struggle with medical decisions because of a lack of clarity regarding patients' preferences, leading to prolonged hospitalizations and increased costs. This project focused on the development and implementation of a tool to facilitate a better communication process by (1) assuring the early identification of a surrogate if indicated on admission and (2) clarifying the decision-making standards that the surrogate was to use when participating in decision making. Before introducing the tool into the admissions routine, the staff were educated about its use and value to the decision-making process. PROJECT AND METHODS: The study was to determine if early use of a simple method of identifying a patient's surrogate and treatment preferences might impact length of stay (LOS) and total hospital charges. A pre- and post-intervention study design was used. Nurses completed the surrogacy information tool for all patients upon admission to the neuroscience ICU. Subjects (total N = 203) were critically ill patients who had been on a mechanical ventilator for 96 hours or longer, or in the ICU for seven days or longer.The project included staff education on biomedical ethics, critical communication skills, early identification of families and staff in crisis, and use of a simple tool to document patients' surrogates and previously expressed care wishes. Data on hospital LOS and hospital charges were collected through a retrospective review of medical records for similar four-month time frames pre- and post-implementation of the assessment tool. Significant differences were found between pre- and post-groups in terms of hospital LOS (F = 6.39, p = .01) and total hospital charges (F = 7.03, p = .009). Project findings indicate that the use of a simple admission assessment tool, supported by staff education about its completion, use, and available resources, can decrease LOS and lower total hospital charges. The reasons for the difference between the pre- and post-intervention groups remain unclear. Further research is needed to evaluate if the quality of communications between patients, their legally authorized representatives, and clinicians--as suggested in the literature--may have played a role in decreasing LOS and total hospital charges.

Rough Evaluation Structure: Application of Rough Set Theory to Generate Simple Rules for Inconsistent Preference Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrmann, Andreas; Nagai, Yoshimitsu; Yoshida, Osamu; Ishizu, Syohei

Since management decision-making becomes complex and preferences of the decision-maker frequently becomes inconsistent, multi-attribute decision-making problems were studied. To represent inconsistent preference relation, the concept of evaluation structure was introduced. We can generate simple rules to represent inconsistent preference relation by the evaluation structures. Further rough set theory for the preference relation was studied and the concept of approximation was introduced. One of our main aims of this paper is to introduce a concept of rough evaluation structure for representing inconsistent preference relation. We apply rough set theory to the evaluation structure, and develop a method for generating simple rules for inconsistent preference relations. In this paper, we introduce concepts of totally ordered information system, similarity class of preference relation, upper and lower approximation of preference relations. We also show the properties of rough evaluation structure and provide a simple example. As an application of rough evaluation structure, we analyze questionnaire survey of customer preferences about audio players.

Does the cost function matter in Bayes decision rule?

PubMed

Schlü ter, Ralf; Nussbaum-Thom, Markus; Ney, Hermann

2012-02-01

In many tasks in pattern recognition, such as automatic speech recognition (ASR), optical character recognition (OCR), part-of-speech (POS) tagging, and other string recognition tasks, we are faced with a well-known inconsistency: The Bayes decision rule is usually used to minimize string (symbol sequence) error, whereas, in practice, we want to minimize symbol (word, character, tag, etc.) error. When comparing different recognition systems, we do indeed use symbol error rate as an evaluation measure. The topic of this work is to analyze the relation between string (i.e., 0-1) and symbol error (i.e., metric, integer valued) cost functions in the Bayes decision rule, for which fundamental analytic results are derived. Simple conditions are derived for which the Bayes decision rule with integer-valued metric cost function and with 0-1 cost gives the same decisions or leads to classes with limited cost. The corresponding conditions can be tested with complexity linear in the number of classes. The results obtained do not make any assumption w.r.t. the structure of the underlying distributions or the classification problem. Nevertheless, the general analytic results are analyzed via simulations of string recognition problems with Levenshtein (edit) distance cost function. The results support earlier findings that considerable improvements are to be expected when initial error rates are high.

The dynamics of decision making in risky choice: an eye-tracking analysis.

PubMed

Fiedler, Susann; Glöckner, Andreas

2012-01-01

In the last years, research on risky choice has moved beyond analyzing choices only. Models have been suggested that aim to describe the underlying cognitive processes and some studies have tested process predictions of these models. Prominent approaches are evidence accumulation models such as decision field theory (DFT), simple serial heuristic models such as the adaptive toolbox, and connectionist approaches such as the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model. In two studies involving measures of attention and pupil dilation, we investigate hypotheses derived from these models in choices between two gambles with two outcomes each. We show that attention to an outcome of a gamble increases with its probability and its value and that attention shifts toward the subsequently favored gamble after about two thirds of the decision process, indicating a gaze-cascade effect. Information search occurs mostly within-gambles, and the direction of search does not change over the course of decision making. Pupil dilation, which reflects both cognitive effort and arousal, increases during the decision process and increases with mean expected value. Overall, the results support aspects of automatic integration models for risky choice such as DFT and PCS, but in their current specification none of them can account for the full pattern of results.

Command and Compensation in a Neuromodulatory Decision Network

PubMed Central

Luan, Haojiang; Diao, Fengqiu; Peabody, Nathan C.; White, Benjamin H.

2012-01-01

The neural circuits that mediate behavioral choices must not only weigh internal demands and environmental circumstances, but also select and implement specific actions, including associated visceral or neuroendocrine functions. Coordinating these multiple processes suggests considerable complexity. As a consequence, even circuits that support simple behavioral decisions remain poorly understood. Here we show that the environmentally-sensitive wing expansion decision of adult fruit flies is coordinated by a single pair of neuromodulatory neurons with command-like function. Targeted suppression of these neurons using the Split Gal4 system abrogates the fly's ability to expand its wings in the face of environmental challenges, while stimulating them forces expansion by coordinately activating both motor and neuroendocrine outputs. The arbitration and implementation of the wing expansion decision by this neuronal pair may illustrate a general strategy by which neuromodulatory neurons orchestrate behavior. Interestingly, the decision network shows a behavioral plasticity that is unmasked under conducive environmental conditions in flies lacking the function of the command-like neuromodulatory neurons. Such flies can often expand their wings using a motor program distinct from that of wildtype animals and controls. This compensatory program may be the vestige of an ancestral, environmentally-insensitive program used for wing expansion that existed prior to the evolution of the environmentally-adaptive program currently used by Drosophila and other cyclorrhaphan flies. PMID:22262886

Cynefin as Reference Framework to Facilitate Insight and Decision-Making in Complex Contexts of Biomedical Research.

PubMed

Kempermann, Gerd

2017-01-01

The Cynefin scheme is a concept of knowledge management, originally devised to support decision making in management, but more generally applicable to situations, in which complexity challenges the quality of insight, prediction, and decision. Despite the fact that life itself, and especially the brain and its diseases, are complex to the extent that complexity could be considered their cardinal feature, complex problems in biomedicine are often treated as if they were actually not more than the complicated sum of solvable sub-problems. Because of the emergent properties of complex contexts this is not correct. With a set of clear criteria Cynefin helps to set apart complex problems from "simple/obvious," "complicated," "chaotic," and "disordered" contexts in order to avoid misinterpreting the relevant causality structures. The distinction comes with the insight, which specific kind of knowledge is possible in each of these categories and what are the consequences for resulting decisions and actions. From student's theses over the publication and grant writing process to research politics, misinterpretation of complexity can have problematic or even dangerous consequences, especially in clinical contexts. Conceptualization of problems within a straightforward reference language like Cynefin improves clarity and stringency within projects and facilitates communication and decision-making about them.

Decision-Related Activity in Macaque V2 for Fine Disparity Discrimination Is Not Compatible with Optimal Linear Readout.

PubMed

Clery, Stephane; Cumming, Bruce G; Nienborg, Hendrikje

2017-01-18

Fine judgments of stereoscopic depth rely mainly on relative judgments of depth (relative binocular disparity) between objects, rather than judgments of the distance to where the eyes are fixating (absolute disparity). In macaques, visual area V2 is the earliest site in the visual processing hierarchy for which neurons selective for relative disparity have been observed (Thomas et al., 2002). Here, we found that, in macaques trained to perform a fine disparity discrimination task, disparity-selective neurons in V2 were highly selective for the task, and their activity correlated with the animals' perceptual decisions (unexplained by the stimulus). This may partially explain similar correlations reported in downstream areas. Although compatible with a perceptual role of these neurons for the task, the interpretation of such decision-related activity is complicated by the effects of interneuronal "noise" correlations between sensory neurons. Recent work has developed simple predictions to differentiate decoding schemes (Pitkow et al., 2015) without needing measures of noise correlations, and found that data from early sensory areas were compatible with optimal linear readout of populations with information-limiting correlations. In contrast, our data here deviated significantly from these predictions. We additionally tested this prediction for previously reported results of decision-related activity in V2 for a related task, coarse disparity discrimination (Nienborg and Cumming, 2006), thought to rely on absolute disparity. Although these data followed the predicted pattern, they violated the prediction quantitatively. This suggests that optimal linear decoding of sensory signals is not generally a good predictor of behavior in simple perceptual tasks. Activity in sensory neurons that correlates with an animal's decision is widely believed to provide insights into how the brain uses information from sensory neurons. Recent theoretical work developed simple predictions to differentiate decoding schemes, and found support for optimal linear readout of early sensory populations with information-limiting correlations. Here, we observed decision-related activity for neurons in visual area V2 of macaques performing fine disparity discrimination, as yet the earliest site for this task. These findings, and previously reported results from V2 in a different task, deviated from the predictions for optimal linear readout of a population with information-limiting correlations. Our results suggest that optimal linear decoding of early sensory information is not a general decoding strategy used by the brain. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370715-11$15.00/0.

Development, deployment and usability of a point-of-care decision support system for chronic disease management using the recently-approved HL7 decision support service standard.

PubMed

Lobach, David F; Kawamoto, Kensaku; Anstrom, Kevin J; Russell, Michael L; Woods, Peter; Smith, Dwight

2007-01-01

Clinical decision support is recognized as one potential remedy for the growing crisis in healthcare quality in the United States and other industrialized nations. While decision support systems have been shown to improve care quality and reduce errors, these systems are not widely available. This lack of availability arises in part because most decision support systems are not portable or scalable. The Health Level 7 international standard development organization recently adopted a draft standard known as the Decision Support Service standard to facilitate the implementation of clinical decision support systems using software services. In this paper, we report the first implementation of a clinical decision support system using this new standard. This system provides point-of-care chronic disease management for diabetes and other conditions and is deployed throughout a large regional health system. We also report process measures and usability data concerning the system. Use of the Decision Support Service standard provides a portable and scalable approach to clinical decision support that could facilitate the more extensive use of decision support systems.

MCSDSS: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System for Merging Geoscience Information with Natural User Interfaces, Preference Ranking, and Interactive Data Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.; Gentle, J.

2015-12-01

The multi-criteria decision support system (MCSDSS) is a newly completed application for touch-enabled group decision support that uses D3 data visualization tools, a geojson conversion utility that we developed, and Paralelex to create an interactive tool. The MCSDSS is a prototype system intended to demonstrate the potential capabilities of a single page application (SPA) running atop a web and cloud based architecture utilizing open source technologies. The application is implemented on current web standards while supporting human interface design that targets both traditional mouse/keyboard interactions and modern touch/gesture enabled interactions. The technology stack for MCSDSS was selected with the goal of creating a robust and dynamic modular codebase that can be adjusted to fit many use cases and scale to support usage loads that range between simple data display to complex scientific simulation-based modelling and analytics. The application integrates current frameworks for highly performant agile development with unit testing, statistical analysis, data visualization, mapping technologies, geographic data manipulation, and cloud infrastructure while retaining support for traditional HTML5/CSS3 web standards. The software lifecylcle for MCSDSS has following best practices to develop, share, and document the codebase and application. Code is documented and shared via an online repository with the option for programmers to see, contribute, or fork the codebase. Example data files and tutorial documentation have been shared with clear descriptions and data object identifiers. And the metadata about the application has been incorporated into an OntoSoft entry to ensure that MCSDSS is searchable and clearly described. MCSDSS is a flexible platform that allows for data fusion and inclusion of large datasets in an interactive front-end application capable of connecting with other science-based applications and advanced computing resources. In addition, MCSDSS offers functionality that enables communication with non-technical users for policy, education, or engagement with groups around scientific topics with societal relevance.

Memory-Based Decision-Making with Heuristics: Evidence for a Controlled Activation of Memory Representations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khader, Patrick H.; Pachur, Thorsten; Meier, Stefanie; Bien, Siegfried; Jost, Kerstin; Rosler, Frank

2011-01-01

Many of our daily decisions are memory based, that is, the attribute information about the decision alternatives has to be recalled. Behavioral studies suggest that for such decisions we often use simple strategies (heuristics) that rely on controlled and limited information search. It is assumed that these heuristics simplify decision-making by…

Product Knowledge and Product Involvement as Moderators of the Effects of Information on Purchase Decisions: A Case Study Using the Perfect Information Frontier Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bei, Lien-Ti; Widdows, Richard

1999-01-01

Using a 2x2x2 factorial design, data from 282 respondents illustrate that people with more product knowledge ("experts") are more likely to be persuaded by complex than simple product information. "Novices" reacted similarly to simple and complex information. The type of information provided influences purchasing decisions. (SK)

Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions.

PubMed

Halasa, T; Willeberg, P; Christiansen, L E; Boklund, A; Alkhamis, M; Perez, A; Enøe, C

2013-11-01

The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value<0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a "catastrophic situation". A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value<0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value<0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Two-Stage Process Model of Sensory Discrimination: An Alternative to Drift-Diffusion

PubMed Central

Landy, Michael S.

2016-01-01

Discrimination of the direction of motion of a noisy stimulus is an example of sensory discrimination under uncertainty. For stimuli that are extended in time, reaction time is quicker for larger signal values (e.g., discrimination of opposite directions of motion compared with neighboring orientations) and larger signal strength (e.g., stimuli with higher contrast or motion coherence, that is, lower noise). The standard model of neural responses (e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex) and reaction time for discrimination is drift-diffusion. This model makes two clear predictions. (1) The effects of signal strength and value on reaction time should interact multiplicatively because the diffusion process depends on the signal-to-noise ratio. (2) If the diffusion process is interrupted, as in a cued-response task, the time to decision after the cue should be independent of the strength of accumulated sensory evidence. In two experiments with human participants, we show that neither prediction holds. A simple alternative model is developed that is consistent with the results. In this estimate-then-decide model, evidence is accumulated until estimation precision reaches a threshold value. Then, a decision is made with duration that depends on the signal-to-noise ratio achieved by the first stage. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Sensory decision-making under uncertainty is usually modeled as the slow accumulation of noisy sensory evidence until a threshold amount of evidence supporting one of the possible decision outcomes is reached. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this accumulation process is reflected in neural responses, e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex. We derive two behavioral predictions of this model and show that neither prediction holds. We introduce a simple alternative model in which evidence is accumulated until a sufficiently precise estimate of the stimulus is achieved, and then that estimate is used to guide the discrimination decision. This model is consistent with the behavioral data. PMID:27807167

A Two-Stage Process Model of Sensory Discrimination: An Alternative to Drift-Diffusion.

PubMed

Sun, Peng; Landy, Michael S

2016-11-02

Discrimination of the direction of motion of a noisy stimulus is an example of sensory discrimination under uncertainty. For stimuli that are extended in time, reaction time is quicker for larger signal values (e.g., discrimination of opposite directions of motion compared with neighboring orientations) and larger signal strength (e.g., stimuli with higher contrast or motion coherence, that is, lower noise). The standard model of neural responses (e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex) and reaction time for discrimination is drift-diffusion. This model makes two clear predictions. (1) The effects of signal strength and value on reaction time should interact multiplicatively because the diffusion process depends on the signal-to-noise ratio. (2) If the diffusion process is interrupted, as in a cued-response task, the time to decision after the cue should be independent of the strength of accumulated sensory evidence. In two experiments with human participants, we show that neither prediction holds. A simple alternative model is developed that is consistent with the results. In this estimate-then-decide model, evidence is accumulated until estimation precision reaches a threshold value. Then, a decision is made with duration that depends on the signal-to-noise ratio achieved by the first stage. Sensory decision-making under uncertainty is usually modeled as the slow accumulation of noisy sensory evidence until a threshold amount of evidence supporting one of the possible decision outcomes is reached. Furthermore, it has been suggested that this accumulation process is reflected in neural responses, e.g., in lateral intraparietal cortex. We derive two behavioral predictions of this model and show that neither prediction holds. We introduce a simple alternative model in which evidence is accumulated until a sufficiently precise estimate of the stimulus is achieved, and then that estimate is used to guide the discrimination decision. This model is consistent with the behavioral data. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3611259-16$15.00/0.

Health care professionals' views of the factors influencing the decision to refer patients to a stroke rehabilitation trial.

PubMed

Thomas, Nessa; Plant, Sarah; Woodward-Nutt, Kate; Prior, Yeliz; Tyson, Sarah

2015-12-18

Effective recruitment is an essential element of successful research but notoriously difficult to achieve. This article examines health care professionals' views on the factors influencing decision-making regarding referral to a stroke rehabilitation trial. Semi-structured interviews and a card-sorting task were undertaken with stroke service staff in acute and community hospital trusts. Data analysis used a thematic framework approach. Twenty-seven qualified health care professionals from 12 (6 acute and 6 community) hospital trusts and one charity participated. Four main factors emerged: patient-related, professional views, the organisation and research logistics, which all contributed to staff's decision about whether to refer patients to a trial. Clinicians identified patient-related factors as the most frequent influence and considered themselves the patients' advocate. They used their knowledge of the patient to anticipate the patients' reaction to possible participation and tended to only refer those whom they perceived would respond positively. Participants also identified experience of research, a sense of ownership of the project and a positive view of the intervention being evaluated as factors influencing referral. The need to prioritise clinical matters, meet managerial demands and cope with constant change were organisational factors impacting negatively on referral. Staff often simply forgot about recruitment in the face of other higher priorities. Quick, simple, flexible research processes that were closely aligned with existing ways of working were felt to facilitate recruitment. Patient- and professional-related factors were the most frequent influence on clinicians' recruitment decisions, which often had a 'gate-keeping' effect. Managerial and clinical responsibility to juggle multiple (often higher) priorities was also an important factor. To facilitate recruitment, researchers need to develop strategies to approach potential participants as directly as possible to enable them to make their own decisions about participation; ensure that research processes are as quick and simple as possible; align with existing clinical pathways and systems; and give regular reminders and ongoing support to promote recruitment. ISRCTN, 98287938 . Registered 6 May 2015.

Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.

2006-01-01

We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach.

PubMed

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

What Influences Recommendations Issued by the Agency for Health Technology Assessment in Poland? A Glimpse Into Decision Makers' Preferences.

PubMed

Niewada, Maciej; Polkowska, Małgorzata; Jakubczyk, Michał; Golicki, Dominik

This study aimed to evaluate the factors that are associated with positive (supporting public funding) and negative recommendations of the Agency for Health Technology Assessment in Poland. Two independent analysts reviewed all the recommendations publicly available online before October 7, 2011. For each recommendation, predefined decision rationales, that is, clinical efficacy, safety, cost-effectiveness, and formal aspects, were sought, either advocating or discouraging the public financing. In the analysis, we used descriptive statistics and a logistic regression model so as to identify the association between predefined criteria and the recommendation being positive. We identified 344 recommendations-218 positive (62.8%) and 126 negative (37.2%). Negative recommendations were better justified and also the comments were less ambiguous in accordance with the recommendation (except for clinical efficacy). In general, the specified criteria supported the decision (either positive or negative) in 209 (60.8%), 107 (31.1%), 124 (36.0%), 96 (27.9%), and 61 (17.7%) recommendations, respectively, and ran contrary to the actual decision in the remaining ones. Threshold values for either cost-effectiveness or budget impact distinguishing positive from negative recommendations could not be specified. The following parameters reached statistical significance in logistic regression: clinical efficacy (both explicitly positive and explicitly negative evaluations impacted in opposite directions), lack of impact on hard end points, unfavorable safety profile, cost-effectiveness results, and formal shortcomings (all reduced the probability of a positive recommendation). Decision making of the Agency for Health Technology Assessment in Poland is multicriterial, and its results cannot be easily decomposed into simple associations or easily predicted. Still, efficacy and safety seem to contribute most to final recommendations. Copyright © 2013, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals’ economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a within-subjects experiment, participants (N = 40) played 180 trials in a Balloon Analogue Risk Talk (BART) in which they could make actual profit. Simple messages about possible (positive and negative) changes in outcome probabilities of future trials had significant effects on measures of risk taking (number of inflations) and actual profits in the game. These effects were enduring, even though no systematic changes in actual outcome probabilities took place following any of the messages. Risk taking also found to be reflected in reaction times revealing increasing reaction times with riskier decisions. Positive and negative economic forecasts affected reaction times slopes differently, with negative forecasts resulting in increased reaction time slopes as a function of risk. These findings suggest that forecasted positive or negative economic change can bias people’s mental model of the economy and reduce or stimulate risk taking. Possible implications for media-fulfilling prophecies in the domain of the economy are considered. PMID:28334031

Implicit knowledge of visual uncertainty guides decisions with asymmetric outcomes.

PubMed

Whiteley, Louise; Sahani, Maneesh

2008-03-06

Perception is an "inverse problem," in which the state of the world must be inferred from the sensory neural activity that results. However, this inference is both ill-posed (Helmholtz, 1856; Marr, 1982) and corrupted by noise (Green & Swets, 1989), requiring the brain to compute perceptual beliefs under conditions of uncertainty. Here we show that human observers performing a simple visual choice task under an externally imposed loss function approach the optimal strategy, as defined by Bayesian probability and decision theory (Berger, 1985; Cox, 1961). In concert with earlier work, this suggests that observers possess a model of their internal uncertainty and can utilize this model in the neural computations that underlie their behavior (Knill & Pouget, 2004). In our experiment, optimal behavior requires that observers integrate the loss function with an estimate of their internal uncertainty rather than simply requiring that they use a modal estimate of the uncertain stimulus. Crucially, they approach optimal behavior even when denied the opportunity to learn adaptive decision strategies based on immediate feedback. Our data thus support the idea that flexible representations of uncertainty are pre-existing, widespread, and can be propagated to decision-making areas of the brain.

ATLS Hypovolemic Shock Classification by Prediction of Blood Loss in Rats Using Regression Models.

PubMed

Choi, Soo Beom; Choi, Joon Yul; Park, Jee Soo; Kim, Deok Won

2016-07-01

In our previous study, our input data set consisted of 78 rats, the blood loss in percent as a dependent variable, and 11 independent variables (heart rate, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, pulse pressure, respiration rate, temperature, perfusion index, lactate concentration, shock index, and new index (lactate concentration/perfusion)). The machine learning methods for multicategory classification were applied to a rat model in acute hemorrhage to predict the four Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) hypovolemic shock classes for triage in our previous study. However, multicategory classification is much more difficult and complicated than binary classification. We introduce a simple approach for classifying ATLS hypovolaemic shock class by predicting blood loss in percent using support vector regression and multivariate linear regression (MLR). We also compared the performance of the classification models using absolute and relative vital signs. The accuracies of support vector regression and MLR models with relative values by predicting blood loss in percent were 88.5% and 84.6%, respectively. These were better than the best accuracy of 80.8% of the direct multicategory classification using the support vector machine one-versus-one model in our previous study for the same validation data set. Moreover, the simple MLR models with both absolute and relative values could provide possibility of the future clinical decision support system for ATLS classification. The perfusion index and new index were more appropriate with relative changes than absolute values.

Decision Support | Solar Research | NREL

Science.gov Websites

informed solar decision making with credible, objective, accessible, and timely resources. Solar Energy Decision Support Decision Support NREL provides technical and analytical support to support provide unbiased information on solar policies and issues for state and local government decision makers

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study.

PubMed

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.

Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picciano, P.

2013-09-01

Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full paper), one opinion shared is that the rational, economic, deliberate listing/evaluation of all options is NOT representative of how many decision are made. A framework gaining interest lately describes two systems predominantly at work: intuition and reasoning (Kahneman, 2003). Intuition is fast, automatic, and parallel contrasted with the more effortful, deliberative, and sequential reasoning. One of the issues of contention is that considerable research is stacked supporting both sides claiming that intuition is: • A hallmark of expertise responsible for rapid, optimal decisions in the face of adversity • A vulnerability where biases serve as decision traps leading to wrong choices Using seminal studies from a range of domains and tasking, potential solutions for SSA decision support will be offered. Important issues such as managing uncertainty, framing inquiries, and information architecture, and contextual cues will be discussed. The purpose is to provide awareness of the human limitations and capabilities in complex decision making so engineers and designers can consider such factors in their development of SSA tools.

Performance evaluation of the machine learning algorithms used in inference mechanism of a medical decision support system.

PubMed

Bal, Mert; Amasyali, M Fatih; Sever, Hayri; Kose, Guven; Demirhan, Ayse

2014-01-01

The importance of the decision support systems is increasingly supporting the decision making process in cases of uncertainty and the lack of information and they are widely used in various fields like engineering, finance, medicine, and so forth, Medical decision support systems help the healthcare personnel to select optimal method during the treatment of the patients. Decision support systems are intelligent software systems that support decision makers on their decisions. The design of decision support systems consists of four main subjects called inference mechanism, knowledge-base, explanation module, and active memory. Inference mechanism constitutes the basis of decision support systems. There are various methods that can be used in these mechanisms approaches. Some of these methods are decision trees, artificial neural networks, statistical methods, rule-based methods, and so forth. In decision support systems, those methods can be used separately or a hybrid system, and also combination of those methods. In this study, synthetic data with 10, 100, 1000, and 2000 records have been produced to reflect the probabilities on the ALARM network. The accuracy of 11 machine learning methods for the inference mechanism of medical decision support system is compared on various data sets.

Fuzzy Naive Bayesian model for medical diagnostic decision support.

PubMed

Wagholikar, Kavishwar B; Vijayraghavan, Sundararajan; Deshpande, Ashok W

2009-01-01

This work relates to the development of computational algorithms to provide decision support to physicians. The authors propose a Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) model for medical diagnosis, which extends the Fuzzy Bayesian approach proposed by Okuda. A physician's interview based method is described to define a orthogonal fuzzy symptom information system, required to apply the model. For the purpose of elaboration and elicitation of characteristics, the algorithm is applied to a simple simulated dataset, and compared with conventional Naive Bayes (NB) approach. As a preliminary evaluation of FNB in real world scenario, the comparison is repeated on a real fuzzy dataset of 81 patients diagnosed with infectious diseases. The case study on simulated dataset elucidates that FNB can be optimal over NB for diagnosing patients with imprecise-fuzzy information, on account of the following characteristics - 1) it can model the information that, values of some attributes are semantically closer than values of other attributes, and 2) it offers a mechanism to temper exaggerations in patient information. Although the algorithm requires precise training data, its utility for fuzzy training data is argued for. This is supported by the case study on infectious disease dataset, which indicates optimality of FNB over NB for the infectious disease domain. Further case studies on large datasets are required to establish utility of FNB.

Risk perception and communication in vaccination decisions: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-28

The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of "feeling okay." Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Perception and Communication in Vaccination Decisions: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.

2012-01-01

The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of “feeling okay.” Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes. PMID:22133507

Distinct Roles of Dopamine and Subthalamic Nucleus in Learning and Probabilistic Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulthard, Elizabeth J.; Bogacz, Rafal; Javed, Shazia; Mooney, Lucy K.; Murphy, Gillian; Keeley, Sophie; Whone, Alan L.

2012-01-01

Even simple behaviour requires us to make decisions based on combining multiple pieces of learned and new information. Making such decisions requires both learning the optimal response to each given stimulus as well as combining probabilistic information from multiple stimuli before selecting a response. Computational theories of decision making…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scolozzi, Rocco, E-mail: rocco.scolozzi@fmach.it; Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: geneletti@ing.unitn.it

Habitat loss and fragmentation are often concurrent to land conversion and urbanization. Simple application of GIS-based landscape pattern indicators may be not sufficient to support meaningful biodiversity impact assessment. A review of the literature reveals that habitat definition and habitat fragmentation are frequently inadequately considered in environmental assessment, notwithstanding the increasing number of tools and approaches reported in the landscape ecology literature. This paper presents an approach for assessing impacts on habitats on a local scale, where availability of species data is often limited, developed for an alpine valley in northern Italy. The perspective of the methodology is multiple scalemore » and species-oriented, and provides both qualitative and quantitative definitions of impact significance. A qualitative decision model is used to assess ecological values in order to support land-use decisions at the local level. Building on recent studies in the same region, the methodology integrates various approaches, such as landscape graphs, object-oriented rule-based habitat assessment and expert knowledge. The results provide insights into future habitat loss and fragmentation caused by land-use changes, and aim at supporting decision-making in planning and suggesting possible ecological compensation. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Many environmental assessments inadequately consider habitat loss and fragmentation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Species-perspective for defining habitat quality and connectivity is claimed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Species-based tools are difficult to be applied with limited availability of data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We propose a species-oriented and multiple scale-based qualitative approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Advantages include being species-oriented and providing value-based information.« less

Creating and sharing clinical decision support content with Web 2.0: Issues and examples.

PubMed

Wright, Adam; Bates, David W; Middleton, Blackford; Hongsermeier, Tonya; Kashyap, Vipul; Thomas, Sean M; Sittig, Dean F

2009-04-01

Clinical decision support is a powerful tool for improving healthcare quality and patient safety. However, developing a comprehensive package of decision support interventions is costly and difficult. If used well, Web 2.0 methods may make it easier and less costly to develop decision support. Web 2.0 is characterized by online communities, open sharing, interactivity and collaboration. Although most previous attempts at sharing clinical decision support content have worked outside of the Web 2.0 framework, several initiatives are beginning to use Web 2.0 to share and collaborate on decision support content. We present case studies of three efforts: the Clinfowiki, a world-accessible wiki for developing decision support content; Partners Healthcare eRooms, web-based tools for developing decision support within a single organization; and Epic Systems Corporation's Community Library, a repository for sharing decision support content for customers of a single clinical system vendor. We evaluate the potential of Web 2.0 technologies to enable collaborative development and sharing of clinical decision support systems through the lens of three case studies; analyzing technical, legal and organizational issues for developers, consumers and organizers of clinical decision support content in Web 2.0. We believe the case for Web 2.0 as a tool for collaborating on clinical decision support content appears strong, particularly for collaborative content development within an organization.

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study

PubMed Central

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To explore multiple stakeholders’ perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. METHODS: An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators’, clinicians’, parents’ and youths’ perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders’ knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital’s culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. CONCLUSIONS: Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors’ paediatric hospital. PMID:27398058

Motivational salience signal in the basal forebrain is coupled with faster and more precise decision speed.

PubMed

Avila, Irene; Lin, Shih-Chieh

2014-03-01

The survival of animals depends critically on prioritizing responses to motivationally salient stimuli. While it is generally believed that motivational salience increases decision speed, the quantitative relationship between motivational salience and decision speed, measured by reaction time (RT), remains unclear. Here we show that the neural correlate of motivational salience in the basal forebrain (BF), defined independently of RT, is coupled with faster and also more precise decision speed. In rats performing a reward-biased simple RT task, motivational salience was encoded by BF bursting response that occurred before RT. We found that faster RTs were tightly coupled with stronger BF motivational salience signals. Furthermore, the fraction of RT variability reflecting the contribution of intrinsic noise in the decision-making process was actively suppressed in faster RT distributions with stronger BF motivational salience signals. Artificially augmenting the BF motivational salience signal via electrical stimulation led to faster and more precise RTs and supports a causal relationship. Together, these results not only describe for the first time, to our knowledge, the quantitative relationship between motivational salience and faster decision speed, they also reveal the quantitative coupling relationship between motivational salience and more precise RT. Our results further establish the existence of an early and previously unrecognized step in the decision-making process that determines both the RT speed and variability of the entire decision-making process and suggest that this novel decision step is dictated largely by the BF motivational salience signal. Finally, our study raises the hypothesis that the dysregulation of decision speed in conditions such as depression, schizophrenia, and cognitive aging may result from the functional impairment of the motivational salience signal encoded by the poorly understood noncholinergic BF neurons.

Motivational Salience Signal in the Basal Forebrain Is Coupled with Faster and More Precise Decision Speed

PubMed Central

Avila, Irene; Lin, Shih-Chieh

2014-01-01

The survival of animals depends critically on prioritizing responses to motivationally salient stimuli. While it is generally believed that motivational salience increases decision speed, the quantitative relationship between motivational salience and decision speed, measured by reaction time (RT), remains unclear. Here we show that the neural correlate of motivational salience in the basal forebrain (BF), defined independently of RT, is coupled with faster and also more precise decision speed. In rats performing a reward-biased simple RT task, motivational salience was encoded by BF bursting response that occurred before RT. We found that faster RTs were tightly coupled with stronger BF motivational salience signals. Furthermore, the fraction of RT variability reflecting the contribution of intrinsic noise in the decision-making process was actively suppressed in faster RT distributions with stronger BF motivational salience signals. Artificially augmenting the BF motivational salience signal via electrical stimulation led to faster and more precise RTs and supports a causal relationship. Together, these results not only describe for the first time, to our knowledge, the quantitative relationship between motivational salience and faster decision speed, they also reveal the quantitative coupling relationship between motivational salience and more precise RT. Our results further establish the existence of an early and previously unrecognized step in the decision-making process that determines both the RT speed and variability of the entire decision-making process and suggest that this novel decision step is dictated largely by the BF motivational salience signal. Finally, our study raises the hypothesis that the dysregulation of decision speed in conditions such as depression, schizophrenia, and cognitive aging may result from the functional impairment of the motivational salience signal encoded by the poorly understood noncholinergic BF neurons. PMID:24642480

HEADROOM APPROACH TO DEVICE DEVELOPMENT: CURRENT AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS.

PubMed

Girling, Alan; Lilford, Richard; Cole, Amanda; Young, Terry

2015-01-01

The headroom approach to medical device development relies on the estimation of a value-based price ceiling at different stages of the development cycle. Such price-ceilings delineate the commercial opportunities for new products in many healthcare systems. We apply a simple model to obtain critical business information as the product proceeds along a development pathway, and indicate some future directions for the development of the approach. Health economic modelling in the supply-side development cycle for new products. The headroom can be used: initially as a 'reality check' on the viability of the device in the healthcare market; to support product development decisions using a real options approach; and to contribute to a pricing policy which respects uncertainties in the reimbursement outlook. The headroom provides a unifying thread for business decisions along the development cycle for a new product. Over the course of the cycle attitudes to uncertainty will evolve, based on the timing and manner in which new information accrues. Within this framework the developmental value of new information can justify the costs of clinical trials and other evidence-gathering activities. Headroom can function as a simple shared tool to parties in commercial negotiations around individual products or groups of products. The development of similar approaches in other contexts holds promise for more rational planning of service provision.

Prospective Analysis of Decision Making During Joint Cardiology Cardiothoracic Conference in Treatment of 107 Consecutive Children with Congenital Heart Disease.

PubMed

Duignan, Sophie; Ryan, Aedin; O'Keeffe, Dara; Kenny, Damien; McMahon, Colin J

2018-05-12

The complexity and potential biases involved in decision making have long been recognised and examined in both the aviation and business industries. More recently, the medical community have started to explore this concept and its particular importance in our field. Paediatric cardiology is a rapidly expanding field and for many of the conditions we treat, there is limited evidence available to support our decision-making. Variability exists within decision-making in paediatric cardiology and this may influence outcomes. There are no validated tools available to support and examine consistent decision-making for various treatment strategies in children with congenital heart disease in a multidisciplinary cardiology and cardiothoracic institution. Our primary objective was to analyse the complexity of decision-making for children with cardiac conditions in the context of our joint cardiology and cardiothoracic conference (JCC). Two paediatric cardiologists acted as investigators by observing the weekly joint cardiology-cardiothoracic surgery conference and prospectively evaluating the degree of complexity of decision-making in the management of 107 sequential children with congenital heart disease discussed. Additionally, the group consensus on the same patients was prospectively assessed to compare this to the independent observers. Of 107 consecutive children discussed at our JCC conference 32 (27%) went on to receive surgical intervention, 20 (17%) underwent catheterisation and 65 (56%) received medical treatment. There were 53 (50%) cases rated as simple by one senior observer, while 54 (50%) were rated as complex to some degree. There was high inter-observer agreement with a Krippendorff's alpha of ≥ 0.8 between 2 observers and between 2 observers and the group consensus as a whole for grading of the complexity of decision-making. Different decisions were occasionally made on patients with the same data set. Discussions revisiting the same patient, in complex cases, resulted in different management decisions being reached in this series. Anchoring of decision-making was witnessed in certain cases. Potential application of decision making algorithms is discussed in making decisions in paediatric cardiology patients. Decision-making in our institution's joint cardiology-cardiothoracic conference proved to be complex in approximately half of our patients. Inconsistency in decision-making for patients with the same diagnosis, and different decisions made for the same complex patient at different time points confounds the reliability of the decision-making process. These novel data highlight the absence of evidence-based medicine for many decisions, occasional lack of consistency and the impact of anchoring, heuristics and other biases in complex cases. Validated decision-making algorithms may assist in providing consistency to decision-making in this setting.

Working at the intersection of context, culture, and technology: Provider perspectives on antimicrobial stewardship in the emergency department using electronic health record clinical decision support.

PubMed

Chung, Phillip; Scandlyn, Jean; Dayan, Peter S; Mistry, Rakesh D

2017-11-01

Antibiotic stewardship programs (ASPs) have not been fully developed for the emergency department (ED), in part the result of the barriers characteristic of this setting. Electronic health record-based clinical decision support (EHR CDS) represents a promising strategy to implement ASPs in the ED. We aimed to determine the cultural beliefs and structural barriers and facilitators to implementation of antimicrobial stewardship in the pediatric ED using EHR CDS. Interviews and focus groups were conducted with hospital and ED leadership, attending ED physicians, nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and residents at a single health system in Colorado. We reviewed and coded the data using constant comparative analysis and framework analysis until a final set of themes emerged. Two dominant perceptions shaped providers' perspectives on ASPs in the ED and EHR CDS: (1) maintaining workflow efficiency and (2) constrained decision-making autonomy. Clinicians identified structural barriers to ASPs, such as pace of the ED, and various beliefs that shaped patterns of practice, including accommodating the prescribing decisions of other providers and managing parental expectations. Recommendations to enhance uptake focused on designing a simple yet flexible user interface, providing clinicians with performance data, and on-boarding clinicians to enhance buy-in. Developing a successful ED-based ASP using EHR CDS should attend to technologic needs, the institutional context, and the cultural beliefs of practice associated with providers' antibiotic prescribing. Copyright © 2017 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Infusion of Dust Model Model Outputs into Public Health Decision Making - an Examination of Differential Adoption of SOAP and Open Geospatial Consortium Service Products into Public Health Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, K. K.

2008-12-01

Since 2004 the Earth Data Analysis Center, in collaboration with the researchers at the University of Arizona and George Mason University, with funding from NASA, has been developing a services oriented architecture (SOA) that acquires remote sensing, meteorological forecast, and observed ground level particulate data (EPA AirNow) from NASA, NOAA, and DataFed through a variety of standards-based service interfaces. These acquired data are used to initialize and set boundary conditions for the execution of the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) to generate daily 48-hour dust forecasts, which are then published via a combination of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) services (WMS and WCS), basic HTTP request-based services, and SOAP services. The goal of this work has been to develop services that can be integrated into existing public health decision support systems (DSS) to provide enhanced environmental data (i.e. ground surface particulate concentration estimates) for use in epidemiological analysis, public health warning systems, and syndromic surveillance systems. While the project has succeeded in deploying these products into the target systems, there has been differential adoption of the different service interface products, with the simple OGC and HTTP interfaces generating much greater interest by DSS developers and researchers than the more complex SOAP service interfaces. This paper reviews the SOA developed as part of this project and provides insights into how different service models may have a significant impact on the infusion of Earth science products into decision making processes and systems.

Formalizing Evidence Type Definitions for Drug-Drug Interaction Studies to Improve Evidence Base Curation.

PubMed

Utecht, Joseph; Brochhausen, Mathias; Judkins, John; Schneider, Jodi; Boyce, Richard D

2017-01-01

In this research we aim to demonstrate that an ontology-based system can categorize potential drug-drug interaction (PDDI) evidence items into complex types based on a small set of simple questions. Such a method could increase the transparency and reliability of PDDI evidence evaluation, while also reducing the variations in content and seriousness ratings present in PDDI knowledge bases. We extended the DIDEO ontology with 44 formal evidence type definitions. We then manually annotated the evidence types of 30 evidence items. We tested an RDF/OWL representation of answers to a small number of simple questions about each of these 30 evidence items and showed that automatic inference can determine the detailed evidence types based on this small number of simpler questions. These results show proof-of-concept for a decision support infrastructure that frees the evidence evaluator from mastering relatively complex written evidence type definitions.

Assessment of cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles among critical care nurses: a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Lean Keng, Soon; AlQudah, Hani Nawaf Ibrahim

2017-02-01

To raise awareness of critical care nurses' cognitive bias in decision-making, its relationship with leadership styles and its impact on care delivery. The relationship between critical care nurses' decision-making and leadership styles in hospitals has been widely studied, but the influence of cognitive bias on decision-making and leadership styles in critical care environments remains poorly understood, particularly in Jordan. Two-phase mixed methods sequential explanatory design and grounded theory. critical care unit, Prince Hamza Hospital, Jordan. Participant sampling: convenience sampling Phase 1 (quantitative, n = 96), purposive sampling Phase 2 (qualitative, n = 20). Pilot tested quantitative survey of 96 critical care nurses in 2012. Qualitative in-depth interviews, informed by quantitative results, with 20 critical care nurses in 2013. Descriptive and simple linear regression quantitative data analyses. Thematic (constant comparative) qualitative data analysis. Quantitative - correlations found between rationality and cognitive bias, rationality and task-oriented leadership styles, cognitive bias and democratic communication styles and cognitive bias and task-oriented leadership styles. Qualitative - 'being competent', 'organizational structures', 'feeling self-confident' and 'being supported' in the work environment identified as key factors influencing critical care nurses' cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles. Two-way impact (strengthening and weakening) of cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles on critical care nurses' practice performance. There is a need to heighten critical care nurses' consciousness of cognitive bias in decision-making and leadership styles and its impact and to develop organization-level strategies to increase non-biased decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying the effects of social influence

PubMed Central

Mavrodiev, Pavlin; Tessone, Claudio J.; Schweitzer, Frank

2013-01-01

How do humans respond to indirect social influence when making decisions? We analysed an experiment where subjects had to guess the answer to factual questions, having only aggregated information about the answers of others. While the response of humans to aggregated information is a widely observed phenomenon, it has not been investigated quantitatively, in a controlled setting. We found that the adjustment of individual guesses depends linearly on the distance to the mean of all guesses. This is a remarkable, and yet surprisingly simple regularity. It holds across all questions analysed, even though the correct answers differ by several orders of magnitude. Our finding supports the assumption that individual diversity does not affect the response to indirect social influence. We argue that the nature of the response crucially changes with the level of information aggregation. This insight contributes to the empirical foundation of models for collective decisions under social influence. PMID:23449043

Towards a cyber-physical era: soft computing framework based multi-sensor array for water quality monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Jyotirmoy; Gupta, Karunesh K.; Gupta, Rajiv

2018-02-01

New concepts and techniques are replacing traditional methods of water quality parameter measurement systems. This paper introduces a cyber-physical system (CPS) approach for water quality assessment in a distribution network. Cyber-physical systems with embedded sensors, processors and actuators can be designed to sense and interact with the water environment. The proposed CPS is comprised of sensing framework integrated with five different water quality parameter sensor nodes and soft computing framework for computational modelling. Soft computing framework utilizes the applications of Python for user interface and fuzzy sciences for decision making. Introduction of multiple sensors in a water distribution network generates a huge number of data matrices, which are sometimes highly complex, difficult to understand and convoluted for effective decision making. Therefore, the proposed system framework also intends to simplify the complexity of obtained sensor data matrices and to support decision making for water engineers through a soft computing framework. The target of this proposed research is to provide a simple and efficient method to identify and detect presence of contamination in a water distribution network using applications of CPS.

Electronic decision support for diagnostic imaging in a primary care setting

PubMed Central

Reed, Martin H

2011-01-01

Methods Clinical guideline adherence for diagnostic imaging (DI) and acceptance of electronic decision support in a rural community family practice clinic was assessed over 36 weeks. Physicians wrote 904 DI orders, 58% of which were addressed by the Canadian Association of Radiologists guidelines. Results Of those orders with guidelines, 76% were ordered correctly; 24% were inappropriate or unnecessary resulting in a prompt from clinical decision support. Physicians followed suggestions from decision support to improve their DI order on 25% of the initially inappropriate orders. The use of decision support was not mandatory, and there were significant variations in use rate. Initially, 40% reported decision support disruptive in their work flow, which dropped to 16% as physicians gained experience with the software. Conclusions Physicians supported the concept of clinical decision support but were reluctant to change clinical habits to incorporate decision support into routine work flow. PMID:21486884

A Mobile Early Stimulation Program to Support Children with Developmental Delays in Brazil.

PubMed

Dias, Raquel da Luz; Silva, Kátia Cristina Correa Guimarães; Lima, Marcela Raquel de Oliveira; Alves, João Guilherme Bezerra; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

2018-01-01

Developmental delay is a deviation development from the normative milestones during the childhood and it may be caused by neurological disorders. Early stimulation is a standardized and simple technique to treat developmental delays in children (aged 0-3 years), allowing them to reach the best development possible and to mitigate neuropsychomotor sequelae. However, the outcomes of the treatment depending on the involvement of the family, to continue the activities at home on a daily basis. To empower and educate parents of children with neurodevelopmental delays to administer standardized early stimulation programs at home, we developed a mobile early stimulation program that provides timely and evidence-based clinical decision support to health professionals and a personalized guidance to parents about how to administer early stimulation to their child at home.

Supporting end of life decision making: Case studies of relational closeness in supported decision making for people with severe or profound intellectual disability.

PubMed

Watson, Joanne; Wilson, Erin; Hagiliassis, Nick

2017-11-01

The United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD) promotes the use of supported decision making in lieu of substitute decision making. To date, there has been a lack of focus on supported decision making for people with severe or profound intellectual disability, including for end of life decisions. Five people with severe or profound intellectual disability's experiences of supported decision making were examined. This article is particularly focused on one participant's experiences at the end of his life. All five case studies identified that supporters were most effective in providing decision-making support for participants when they were relationally close to the person and had knowledge of the person's life story, particularly in relation to events that demonstrated preference. Findings from this study provide new understandings of supported decision making for people with severe or profound intellectual disability and have particular relevance for supporting decision making at the end of life. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evidence integration in model-based tree search

PubMed Central

Solway, Alec; Botvinick, Matthew M.

2015-01-01

Research on the dynamics of reward-based, goal-directed decision making has largely focused on simple choice, where participants decide among a set of unitary, mutually exclusive options. Recent work suggests that the deliberation process underlying simple choice can be understood in terms of evidence integration: Noisy evidence in favor of each option accrues over time, until the evidence in favor of one option is significantly greater than the rest. However, real-life decisions often involve not one, but several steps of action, requiring a consideration of cumulative rewards and a sensitivity to recursive decision structure. We present results from two experiments that leveraged techniques previously applied to simple choice to shed light on the deliberation process underlying multistep choice. We interpret the results from these experiments in terms of a new computational model, which extends the evidence accumulation perspective to multiple steps of action. PMID:26324932

Localized-atlas-based segmentation of breast MRI in a decision-making framework.

PubMed

Fooladivanda, Aida; Shokouhi, Shahriar B; Ahmadinejad, Nasrin

2017-03-01

Breast-region segmentation is an important step for density estimation and Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). Detection of breast-chest wall boundary is often a difficult task due to similarity between gray-level values of fibroglandular tissue and pectoral muscle. This paper proposes a robust breast-region segmentation method which is applicable for both complex cases with fibroglandular tissue connected to the pectoral muscle, and simple cases with high contrast boundaries. We present a decision-making framework based on geometric features and support vector machine (SVM) to classify breasts in two main groups, complex and simple. For complex cases, breast segmentation is done using a combination of intensity-based and atlas-based techniques; however, only intensity-based operation is employed for simple cases. A novel atlas-based method, that is called localized-atlas, accomplishes the processes of atlas construction and registration based on the region of interest (ROI). Atlas-based segmentation is performed by relying on the chest wall template. Our approach is validated using a dataset of 210 cases. Based on similarity between automatic and manual segmentation results, the proposed method achieves Dice similarity coefficient, Jaccard coefficient, total overlap, false negative, and false positive values of 96.3, 92.9, 97.4, 2.61 and 4.77%, respectively. The localization error of the breast-chest wall boundary is 1.97 mm, in terms of averaged deviation distance. The achieved results prove that the suggested framework performs the breast segmentation with negligible errors and efficient computational time for different breasts from the viewpoints of size, shape, and density pattern.

Conscious thought beats deliberation without attention in diagnostic decision-making: at least when you are an expert

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Henk G.; Rikers, Remy M. J. P.; Custers, Eugene J. F. M.; Splinter, Ted A. W.; van Saase, Jan L. C. M.

2010-01-01

Contrary to what common sense makes us believe, deliberation without attention has recently been suggested to produce better decisions in complex situations than deliberation with attention. Based on differences between cognitive processes of experts and novices, we hypothesized that experts make in fact better decisions after consciously thinking about complex problems whereas novices may benefit from deliberation-without-attention. These hypotheses were confirmed in a study among doctors and medical students. They diagnosed complex and routine problems under three conditions, an immediate-decision condition and two delayed conditions: conscious thought and deliberation-without-attention. Doctors did better with conscious deliberation when problems were complex, whereas reasoning mode did not matter in simple problems. In contrast, deliberation-without-attention improved novices’ decisions, but only in simple problems. Experts benefit from consciously thinking about complex problems; for novices thinking does not help in those cases. PMID:20354726

Conscious thought beats deliberation without attention in diagnostic decision-making: at least when you are an expert.

PubMed

Mamede, Sílvia; Schmidt, Henk G; Rikers, Remy M J P; Custers, Eugene J F M; Splinter, Ted A W; van Saase, Jan L C M

2010-11-01

Contrary to what common sense makes us believe, deliberation without attention has recently been suggested to produce better decisions in complex situations than deliberation with attention. Based on differences between cognitive processes of experts and novices, we hypothesized that experts make in fact better decisions after consciously thinking about complex problems whereas novices may benefit from deliberation-without-attention. These hypotheses were confirmed in a study among doctors and medical students. They diagnosed complex and routine problems under three conditions, an immediate-decision condition and two delayed conditions: conscious thought and deliberation-without-attention. Doctors did better with conscious deliberation when problems were complex, whereas reasoning mode did not matter in simple problems. In contrast, deliberation-without-attention improved novices' decisions, but only in simple problems. Experts benefit from consciously thinking about complex problems; for novices thinking does not help in those cases.

Osteoporosis risk prediction for bone mineral density assessment of postmenopausal women using machine learning.

PubMed

Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Sung Kean; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Joon Yul; Lee, Wan Hyung; Oh, Ein; Park, Eun-Cheol

2013-11-01

A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.

Neuroscientific evidence for contextual effects in decision making.

PubMed

Hytönen, Kaisa

2014-02-01

Both internal and external states can cause inconsistencies in decision behavior. I present examples from behavioral decision-making literature and review neuroscientific knowledge on two contextual influences: framing effects and social conformity. The brain mechanisms underlying these behavioral adjustments comply with the dual-process account and simple learning mechanisms, and are weak indicators for unintentionality in decision-making processes.

The importance of multidisciplinary team management of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer

PubMed Central

Ellis, P.M.

2012-01-01

Historically, a simple approach to the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (nsclc) was applicable to nearly all patients. Recently, a more complex treatment algorithm has emerged, driven by both pathologic and molecular phenotype. This increasing complexity underscores the importance of a multidisciplinary team approach to the diagnosis, treatment, and supportive care of patients with nsclc. A team approach to management is important at all points: from diagnosis, through treatment, to end-of-life care. It also needs to be patient-centred and must involve the patient in decision-making concerning treatment. Multidisciplinary case conferencing is becoming an integral part of care. Early integration of palliative care into the team approach appears to contribute significantly to quality of life and potentially extends overall survival for these patients. Supportive approaches, including psychosocial and nutrition support, should be routinely incorporated into the team approach. Challenges to the implementation of multidisciplinary care require institutional commitment and support. PMID:22787414

Social cognitive theory, metacognition, and simulation learning in nursing education.

PubMed

Burke, Helen; Mancuso, Lorraine

2012-10-01

Simulation learning encompasses simple, introductory scenarios requiring response to patients' needs during basic hygienic care and during situations demanding complex decision making. Simulation integrates principles of social cognitive theory (SCT) into an interactive approach to learning that encompasses the core principles of intentionality, forethought, self-reactiveness, and self-reflectiveness. Effective simulation requires an environment conducive to learning and introduces activities that foster symbolic coding operations and mastery of new skills; debriefing builds self-efficacy and supports self-regulation of behavior. Tailoring the level of difficulty to students' mastery level supports successful outcomes and motivation to set higher standards. Mindful selection of simulation complexity and structure matches course learning objectives and supports progressive development of metacognition. Theory-based facilitation of simulated learning optimizes efficacy of this learning method to foster maturation of cognitive processes of SCT, metacognition, and self-directedness. Examples of metacognition that are supported through mindful, theory-based implementation of simulation learning are provided. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2013-01-01

Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

Neural substrates of reward magnitude, probability, and risk during a wheel of fortune decision-making task.

PubMed

Smith, Bruce W; Mitchell, Derek G V; Hardin, Michael G; Jazbec, Sandra; Fridberg, Daniel; Blair, R James R; Ernst, Monique

2009-01-15

Economic decision-making involves the weighting of magnitude and probability of potential gains/losses. While previous work has examined the neural systems involved in decision-making, there is a need to understand how the parameters associated with decision-making (e.g., magnitude of expected reward, probability of expected reward and risk) modulate activation within these neural systems. In the current fMRI study, we modified the monetary wheel of fortune (WOF) task [Ernst, M., Nelson, E.E., McClure, E.B., Monk, C.S., Munson, S., Eshel, N., et al. (2004). Choice selection and reward anticipation: an fMRI study. Neuropsychologia 42(12), 1585-1597.] to examine in 25 healthy young adults the neural responses to selections of different reward magnitudes, probabilities, or risks. Selection of high, relative to low, reward magnitude increased activity in insula, amygdala, middle and posterior cingulate cortex, and basal ganglia. Selection of low-probability, as opposed to high-probability reward, increased activity in anterior cingulate cortex, as did selection of risky, relative to safe reward. In summary, decision-making that did not involve conflict, as in the magnitude contrast, recruited structures known to support the coding of reward values, and those that integrate motivational and perceptual information for behavioral responses. In contrast, decision-making under conflict, as in the probability and risk contrasts, engaged the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex whose role in conflict monitoring is well established. However, decision-making under conflict failed to activate the structures that track reward values per se. Thus, the presence of conflict in decision-making seemed to significantly alter the pattern of neural responses to simple rewards. In addition, this paradigm further clarifies the functional specialization of the cingulate cortex in processes of decision-making.

Development of the Supported Decision Making Inventory System.

PubMed

Shogren, Karrie A; Wehmeyer, Michael L; Uyanik, Hatice; Heidrich, Megan

2017-12-01

Supported decision making has received increased attention as an alternative to guardianship and a means to enable people with intellectual and developmental disabilities to exercise their right to legal capacity. Assessments are needed that can used by people with disabilities and their systems of supports to identify and plan for needed supports to enable decision making. This article describes the steps taken to develop such an assessment tool, the Supported Decision Making Inventory System (SDMIS), and initial feedback received from self-advocates with intellectual disability. The three sections of the SDMIS (Supported Decision Making Personal Factors Inventory, Supported Decision Making Environmental Demands Inventory, and Decision Making Autonomy Inventory) are described and implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Assessing the feasibility of native fish reintroductions: a framework applied to threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Jason B.; Gallo, Kirsten; Shively, Dan; Allen, Chris; Goehring, Brad

2011-01-01

Translocations to recover native fishes have resulted in mixed success. One reason for the failure of these actions is inadequate assessments of their feasibility prior to implementation. Here, we provide a framework developed to assess the feasibility of one type of translocation-reintroduction. The framework was founded on two simple components of feasibility: the potential for recipient habitats to support a reintroduction and the potential of available donor populations to support a reintroduction. Within each component, we developed a series of key questions. The final assessment was based on a scoring system that incorporated consideration of uncertainty in available information. The result was a simple yet transparent system for assessing reintroduction feasibility that can be rapidly applied in practice. We applied this assessment framework to the potential reintroduction of threatened bull trout Salvelinus confluentus into the Clackamas River, Oregon. In this case, the assessment suggested that the degree of feasibility for reintroduction was high based on the potential of recipient habitats and available donor populations. The assessment did not provide a comprehensive treatment of all possible factors that would drive an actual decision to implement a reintroduction,

Perceptual uncertainty and line-call challenges in professional tennis

PubMed Central

Mather, George

2008-01-01

Fast-moving sports such as tennis require both players and match officials to make rapid accurate perceptual decisions about dynamic events in the visual world. Disagreements arise regularly, leading to disputes about decisions such as line calls. A number of factors must contribute to these disputes, including lapses in concentration, bias and gamesmanship. Fundamental uncertainty or variability in the sensory information supporting decisions must also play a role. Modern technological innovations now provide detailed and accurate physical information that can be compared against the decisions of players and officials. The present paper uses this psychophysical data to assess the significance of perceptual limitations as a contributor to real-world decisions in professional tennis. A detailed analysis is presented of a large body of data on line-call challenges in professional tennis tournaments over the last 2 years. Results reveal that the vast majority of challenges can be explained in a direct highly predictable manner by a simple model of uncertainty in perceptual information processing. Both players and line judges are remarkably accurate at judging ball bounce position, with a positional uncertainty of less than 40 mm. Line judges are more reliable than players. Judgements are more difficult for balls bouncing near base and service lines than those bouncing near side and centre lines. There is no evidence for significant errors in localization due to image motion. PMID:18426755

Perceptual uncertainty and line-call challenges in professional tennis.

PubMed

Mather, George

2008-07-22

Fast-moving sports such as tennis require both players and match officials to make rapid accurate perceptual decisions about dynamic events in the visual world. Disagreements arise regularly, leading to disputes about decisions such as line calls. A number of factors must contribute to these disputes, including lapses in concentration, bias and gamesmanship. Fundamental uncertainty or variability in the sensory information supporting decisions must also play a role. Modern technological innovations now provide detailed and accurate physical information that can be compared against the decisions of players and officials. The present paper uses this psychophysical data to assess the significance of perceptual limitations as a contributor to real-world decisions in professional tennis. A detailed analysis is presented of a large body of data on line-call challenges in professional tennis tournaments over the last 2 years. Results reveal that the vast majority of challenges can be explained in a direct highly predictable manner by a simple model of uncertainty in perceptual information processing. Both players and line judges are remarkably accurate at judging ball bounce position, with a positional uncertainty of less than 40mm. Line judges are more reliable than players. Judgements are more difficult for balls bouncing near base and service lines than those bouncing near side and centre lines. There is no evidence for significant errors in localization due to image motion.

Design and Implementation WebGIS for Improving the Quality of Exploration Decisions at Sin-Quyen Copper Mine, Northern Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quang Truong, Xuan; Luan Truong, Xuan; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Nguyen, Dinh Tuan; Cong Nguyen, Chi

2017-12-01

The objective of this study is to design and implement a WebGIS Decision Support System (WDSS) for reducing uncertainty and supporting to improve the quality of exploration decisions in the Sin-Quyen copper mine, northern Vietnam. The main distinctive feature of the Sin-Quyen deposit is an unusual composition of ores. Computer and software applied to the exploration problem have had a significant impact on the exploration process over the past 25 years, but up until now, no online system has been undertaken. The system was completely built on open source technology and the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Services (OWS). The input data includes remote sensing (RS), Geographical Information System (GIS) and data from drillhole explorations, the drillhole exploration data sets were designed as a geodatabase and stored in PostgreSQL. The WDSS must be able to processed exploration data and support users to access 2-dimensional (2D) or 3-dimensional (3D) cross-sections and map of boreholles exploration data and drill holes. The interface was designed in order to interact with based maps (e.g., Digital Elevation Model, Google Map, OpenStreetMap) and thematic maps (e.g., land use and land cover, administrative map, drillholes exploration map), and to provide GIS functions (such as creating a new map, updating an existing map, querying and statistical charts). In addition, the system provides geological cross-sections of ore bodies based on Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), nearest neighbour interpolation and Kriging methods (e.g., Simple Kriging, Ordinary Kriging, Indicator Kriging and CoKriging). The results based on data available indicate that the best estimation method (of 23 borehole exploration data sets) for estimating geological cross-sections of ore bodies in Sin-Quyen copper mine is Ordinary Kriging. The WDSS could provide useful information to improve drilling efficiency in mineral exploration and for management decision making.

Supporting End of Life Decision Making: Case Studies of Relational Closeness in Supported Decision Making for People with Severe or Profound Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Joanne; Wilson, Erin; Hagiliassis, Nick

2017-01-01

Background: The United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD) promotes the use of supported decision making in lieu of substitute decision making. To date, there has been a lack of focus on supported decision making for people with severe or profound intellectual disability, including for end of life decisions.…

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Decision support for clinical laboratory capacity planning.

PubMed

van Merode, G G; Hasman, A; Derks, J; Goldschmidt, H M; Schoenmaker, B; Oosten, M

1995-01-01

The design of a decision support system for capacity planning in clinical laboratories is discussed. The DSS supports decisions concerning the following questions: how should the laboratory be divided into job shops (departments/sections), how should staff be assigned to workstations and how should samples be assigned to workstations for testing. The decision support system contains modules for supporting decisions at the overall laboratory level (concerning the division of the laboratory into job shops) and for supporting decisions at the job shop level (assignment of staff to workstations and sample scheduling). Experiments with these modules are described showing both the functionality and the validity.

Features of computerized clinical decision support systems supportive of nursing practice: a literature review.

PubMed

Lee, Seonah

2013-10-01

This study aimed to organize the system features of decision support technologies targeted at nursing practice into assessment, problem identification, care plans, implementation, and outcome evaluation. It also aimed to identify the range of the five stage-related sequential decision supports that computerized clinical decision support systems provided. MEDLINE, CINAHL, and EMBASE were searched. A total of 27 studies were reviewed. The system features collected represented the characteristics of each category from patient assessment to outcome evaluation. Several features were common across the reviewed systems. For the sequential decision support, all of the reviewed systems provided decision support in sequence for patient assessment and care plans. Fewer than half of the systems included problem identification. There were only three systems operating in an implementation stage and four systems in outcome evaluation. Consequently, the key steps for sequential decision support functions were initial patient assessment, problem identification, care plan, and outcome evaluation. Providing decision support in such a full scope will effectively help nurses' clinical decision making. By organizing the system features, a comprehensive picture of nursing practice-oriented computerized decision support systems was obtained; however, the development of a guideline for better systems should go beyond the scope of a literature review.

Shaping the Future Landscape: Catchment Systems Engineering and the Decision Support Matrix Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewett, Caspar; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark; Wainwright, John

2017-04-01

Land degradation is widely recognised as one of the great environmental challenges facing humanity today, much of which is directly associated with human activity. The negative impacts of climate change and of the way in which we have engineered the landscape through, for example, agriculture intensification and deforestation, need to be addressed. However, the answer is not a simple matter of doing the opposite of current practice. Nor is non-intervention a viable option. There is a need to bring together approaches from the natural and social sciences both to understand the issues and to act to solve real problems. We propose combining a Catchment Systems Engineering (CSE) approach that builds on existing approaches such as Natural Water Retention Measures, Green infrastructure and Nature-Based Solutions with a multi-scale framework for decision support that has been successfully applied to diffuse pollution and flood risk management. The CSE philosophy follows that of Earth Systems Engineering and Management, which aims to engineer and manage complex coupled human-natural systems in a highly integrated, rational manner. CSE is multi-disciplinary, and necessarily involves a wide range of subject areas including anthropology, engineering, environmental science, ethics and philosophy. It offers a rational approach which accepts the fact that we need to engineer and act to improve the functioning of the existing catchment entity on which we rely. The decision support framework proposed draws on physical and mathematical modelling; Participatory Action Research; and demonstration sites at which practical interventions are implemented. It is predicated on the need to work with stakeholders to co-produce knowledge that leads to proactive interventions to reverse the land degradation we observe today while sustaining the agriculture humanity needs. The philosophy behind CSE and examples of where it has been applied successfully are presented. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) approach is introduced as a way to engage stakeholders at all scales, helping to inform decision making and motivate intervention. Two existing visualization and communication tools produced using the DSM approach are discussed: The FARM (Floods and Agriculture Risk Matrix) and CAVERTI (Communication And Visualizing Erosion-associated Risks to Infrastructure). Such tools can play a central role in encouraging a more holistic engineering approach to managing catchment system function that combines food production with a reversal of land degradation, providing a 'win-win' situation for all.

Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons.

PubMed

Friedrich, Johannes; Lengyel, Máté

2016-02-03

Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules such that its dynamics devise a near-optimal plan of action. By systematically comparing our model results to experimental data, we show that it reproduces behavioral decision times and choice probabilities as well as neural responses in a rich set of tasks. Our results thus offer the first biologically realistic account for complex goal-directed decision making at a computational, algorithmic, and implementational level. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/361529-18$15.00/0.

Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Lengyel, Máté

2016-01-01

Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules such that its dynamics devise a near-optimal plan of action. By systematically comparing our model results to experimental data, we show that it reproduces behavioral decision times and choice probabilities as well as neural responses in a rich set of tasks. Our results thus offer the first biologically realistic account for complex goal-directed decision making at a computational, algorithmic, and implementational level. PMID:26843636

HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT

EPA Science Inventory

NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

2004-12-01

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial (and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

The Attentional Drift Diffusion Model of Simple Perceptual Decision-Making.

PubMed

Tavares, Gabriela; Perona, Pietro; Rangel, Antonio

2017-01-01

Perceptual decisions requiring the comparison of spatially distributed stimuli that are fixated sequentially might be influenced by fluctuations in visual attention. We used two psychophysical tasks with human subjects to investigate the extent to which visual attention influences simple perceptual choices, and to test the extent to which the attentional Drift Diffusion Model (aDDM) provides a good computational description of how attention affects the underlying decision processes. We find evidence for sizable attentional choice biases and that the aDDM provides a reasonable quantitative description of the relationship between fluctuations in visual attention, choices and reaction times. We also find that exogenous manipulations of attention induce choice biases consistent with the predictions of the model.

Watermark: An Application and Methodology and Application for Interactive and intelligent Decision Support for Groundwater Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, S. A.; Wagner, K.; Schwartz, S.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.

2016-12-01

Critical water resources face the effects of historic drought, increased demand, and potential contamination, the need has never been greater to develop resources to effectively communicate conservation and protection across a broad audience and geographical area. The Watermark application and macro-analysis methodology merges topical analysis of context rich corpus from policy texts with multi-attributed solution sets from integrated models of water resource and other subsystems, such as mineral, food, energy, or environmental systems to construct a scalable, robust, and reproducible approach for identifying links between policy and science knowledge bases. The Watermark application is an open-source, interactive workspace to support science-based visualization and decision making. Designed with generalization in mind, Watermark is a flexible platform that allows for data analysis and inclusion of large datasets with an interactive front-end capable of connecting with other applications as well as advanced computing resources. In addition, the Watermark analysis methodology offers functionality that streamlines communication with non-technical users for policy, education, or engagement with groups around scientific topics of societal relevance. The technology stack for Watermark was selected with the goal of creating a robust and dynamic modular codebase that can be adjusted to fit many use cases and scale to support usage loads that range between simple data display to complex scientific simulation-based modelling and analytics. The methodology uses to topical analysis and simulation-optimization to systematically analyze the policy and management realities of resource systems and explicitly connect the social and problem contexts with science-based and engineering knowledge from models. A case example demonstrates use in a complex groundwater resources management study highlighting multi-criteria spatial decision making and uncertainty comparisons.

Decision Support Tool for Early Differential Diagnosis of Acute Lung Injury and Cardiogenic Pulmonary Edema in Medical Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Shahjehan, Khurram; Li, Guangxi; Dhokarh, Rajanigandha; Kashyap, Rahul; Janish, Christopher; Alsara, Anas; Jaffe, Allan S.; Hubmayr, Rolf D.; Gajic, Ognjen

2012-01-01

Background: At the onset of acute hypoxic respiratory failure, critically ill patients with acute lung injury (ALI) may be difficult to distinguish from those with cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE). No single clinical parameter provides satisfying prediction. We hypothesized that a combination of those will facilitate early differential diagnosis. Methods: In a population-based retrospective development cohort, validated electronic surveillance identified critically ill adult patients with acute pulmonary edema. Recursive partitioning and logistic regression were used to develop a decision support tool based on routine clinical information to differentiate ALI from CPE. Performance of the score was validated in an independent cohort of referral patients. Blinded post hoc expert review served as gold standard. Results: Of 332 patients in a development cohort, expert reviewers (κ, 0.86) classified 156 as having ALI and 176 as having CPE. The validation cohort had 161 patients (ALI = 113, CPE = 48). The score was based on risk factors for ALI and CPE, age, alcohol abuse, chemotherapy, and peripheral oxygen saturation/Fio2 ratio. It demonstrated good discrimination (area under curve [AUC] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.77-0.86) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow [HL] P = .16). Similar performance was obtained in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72-0.88; HL P = .13). Conclusions: A simple decision support tool accurately classifies acute pulmonary edema, reserving advanced testing for a subset of patients in whom satisfying prediction cannot be made. This novel tool may facilitate early inclusion of patients with ALI and CPE into research studies as well as improve and rationalize clinical management and resource use. PMID:22030803

Diagnostic Tests to Support Late-Stage Control Programs for Schistosomiasis and Soil-Transmitted Helminthiases.

PubMed

Hawkins, Kenneth R; Cantera, Jason L; Storey, Helen L; Leader, Brandon T; de Los Santos, Tala

2016-12-01

Global efforts to address schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) include deworming programs for school-aged children that are made possible by large-scale drug donations. Decisions on these mass drug administration (MDA) programs currently rely on microscopic examination of clinical specimens to determine the presence of parasite eggs. However, microscopy-based methods are not sensitive to the low-intensity infections that characterize populations that have undergone MDA. Thus, there has been increasing recognition within the schistosomiasis and STH communities of the need for improved diagnostic tools to support late-stage control program decisions, such as when to stop or reduce MDA. Failure to adequately address the need for new diagnostics could jeopardize achievement of the 2020 London Declaration goals. In this report, we assess diagnostic needs and landscape potential solutions and determine appropriate strategies to improve diagnostic testing to support control and elimination programs. Based upon literature reviews and previous input from experts in the schistosomiasis and STH communities, we prioritized two diagnostic use cases for further exploration: to inform MDA-stopping decisions and post-MDA surveillance. To this end, PATH has refined target product profiles (TPPs) for schistosomiasis and STH diagnostics that are applicable to these use cases. We evaluated the limitations of current diagnostic methods with regards to these use cases and identified candidate biomarkers and diagnostics with potential application as new tools. Based on this analysis, there is a need to develop antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) with simplified, field-deployable sample preparation for schistosomiasis. Additionally, there is a need for diagnostic tests that are more sensitive than the current methods for STH, which may include either a field-deployable molecular test or a simple, low-cost, rapid antigen-detecting test.

Visual Decision Support Tool for Supporting Asset ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Abstract:Managing urban water infrastructures faces the challenge of jointly dealing with assets of diverse types, useful life, cost, ages and condition. Service quality and sustainability require sound long-term planning, well aligned with tactical and operational planning and management. In summary, the objective of an integrated approach to infrastructure asset management is to assist utilities answer the following questions:•Who are we at present?•What service do we deliver?•What do we own?•Where do we want to be in the long-term?•How do we get there?The AWARE-P approach (www.aware-p.org) offers a coherent methodological framework and a valuable portfolio of software tools. It is designed to assist water supply and wastewater utility decision-makers in their analyses and planning processes. It is based on a Plan-Do-Check-Act process and is in accordance with the key principles of the International Standards Organization (ISO) 55000 standards on asset management. It is compatible with, and complementary to WERF’s SIMPLE framework. The software assists in strategic, tactical, and operational planning, through a non-intrusive, web-based, collaborative environment where objectives and metrics drive IAM planning. It is aimed at industry professionals and managers, as well as at the consultants and technical experts that support them. It is easy to use and maximizes the value of information from multiple existing data sources, both in da

Simulation of green roof runoff under different substrate depths and vegetation covers by coupling a simple conceptual and a physically based hydrological model.

PubMed

Soulis, Konstantinos X; Valiantzas, John D; Ntoulas, Nikolaos; Kargas, George; Nektarios, Panayiotis A

2017-09-15

In spite of the well-known green roof benefits, their widespread adoption in the management practices of urban drainage systems requires the use of adequate analytical and modelling tools. In the current study, green roof runoff modeling was accomplished by developing, testing, and jointly using a simple conceptual model and a physically based numerical simulation model utilizing HYDRUS-1D software. The use of such an approach combines the advantages of the conceptual model, namely simplicity, low computational requirements, and ability to be easily integrated in decision support tools with the capacity of the physically based simulation model to be easily transferred in conditions and locations other than those used for calibrating and validating it. The proposed approach was evaluated with an experimental dataset that included various green roof covers (either succulent plants - Sedum sediforme, or xerophytic plants - Origanum onites, or bare substrate without any vegetation) and two substrate depths (either 8 cm or 16 cm). Both the physically based and the conceptual models matched very closely the observed hydrographs. In general, the conceptual model performed better than the physically based simulation model but the overall performance of both models was sufficient in most cases as it is revealed by the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index which was generally greater than 0.70. Finally, it was showcased how a physically based and a simple conceptual model can be jointly used to allow the use of the simple conceptual model for a wider set of conditions than the available experimental data and in order to support green roof design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SANDS: an architecture for clinical decision support in a National Health Information Network.

PubMed

Wright, Adam; Sittig, Dean F

2007-10-11

A new architecture for clinical decision support called SANDS (Service-oriented Architecture for NHIN Decision Support) is introduced and its performance evaluated. The architecture provides a method for performing clinical decision support across a network, as in a health information exchange. Using the prototype we demonstrated that, first, a number of useful types of decision support can be carried out using our architecture; and, second, that the architecture exhibits desirable reliability and performance characteristics.

Future of electronic health records: implications for decision support.

PubMed

Rothman, Brian; Leonard, Joan C; Vigoda, Michael M

2012-01-01

The potential benefits of the electronic health record over traditional paper are many, including cost containment, reductions in errors, and improved compliance by utilizing real-time data. The highest functional level of the electronic health record (EHR) is clinical decision support (CDS) and process automation, which are expected to enhance patient health and healthcare. The authors provide an overview of the progress in using patient data more efficiently and effectively through clinical decision support to improve health care delivery, how decision support impacts anesthesia practice, and how some are leading the way using these systems to solve need-specific issues. Clinical decision support uses passive or active decision support to modify clinician behavior through recommendations of specific actions. Recommendations may reduce medication errors, which would result in considerable savings by avoiding adverse drug events. In selected studies, clinical decision support has been shown to decrease the time to follow-up actions, and prediction has proved useful in forecasting patient outcomes, avoiding costs, and correctly prompting treatment plan modifications by clinicians before engaging in decision-making. Clinical documentation accuracy and completeness is improved by an electronic health record and greater relevance of care data is delivered. Clinical decision support may increase clinician adherence to clinical guidelines, but educational workshops may be equally effective. Unintentional consequences of clinical decision support, such as alert desensitization, can decrease the effectiveness of a system. Current anesthesia clinical decision support use includes antibiotic administration timing, improved documentation, more timely billing, and postoperative nausea and vomiting prophylaxis. Electronic health record implementation offers data-mining opportunities to improve operational, financial, and clinical processes. Using electronic health record data in real-time for decision support and process automation has the potential to both reduce costs and improve the quality of patient care. © 2012 Mount Sinai School of Medicine.

Toward a Multilingual, Experiential Environment for Learning Decision Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeo, Gee Kin; Tan, Seng Teen

1999-01-01

Describes work at the National University of Singapore on the Internet in expanding a simulation game used in supporting a course in decision technology. Topics include decision support systems, multilingual support for cross-cultural decision studies, process support in a World Wide Web-enhanced multiuser domain (MUD) learning environment, and…

Maintenance and operations decision support tool : Clarus regional demonstrations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

Weather affects almost all maintenance activity decisions. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) tested a new decision support system for maintenance in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois called the Maintenance and Operations Decision Support System (MO...

Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

2010-12-01

Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

The Role of Health Care Provider and Partner Decisional Support in Patients' Cancer Treatment Decision-Making Satisfaction.

PubMed

Palmer-Wackerly, Angela L; Krieger, Janice L; Rhodes, Nancy D

2017-01-01

Cancer patients rely on multiple sources of support when making treatment decisions; however, most research studies examine the influence of health care provider support while the influence of family member support is understudied. The current study fills this gap by examining the influence of health care providers and partners on decision-making satisfaction. In a cross-sectional study via an online Qualtrics panel, we surveyed cancer patients who reported that they had a spouse or romantic partner when making cancer treatment decisions (n = 479). Decisional support was measured using 5-point, single-item scales for emotional support, informational support, informational-advice support, and appraisal support. Decision-making satisfaction was measured using Holmes-Rovner and colleagues' (1996) Satisfaction With Decision Scale. We conducted a mediated regression analysis to examine treatment decision-making satisfaction for all participants and a moderated mediation analysis to examine treatment satisfaction among those patients offered a clinical trial. Results indicated that partner support significantly and partially mediated the relationship between health care provider support and patients' decision-making satisfaction but that results did not vary by enrollment in a clinical trial. This study shows how and why decisional support from partners affects communication between health care providers and cancer patients.

ACED IT: A Tool for Improved Ethical and Moral Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kreitler, Crystal Mata; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Rodarte, Allen M.; Piñón DuMond, Rebecca

2014-01-01

Numerous examples of unethical organizational decision-making highlighted in the media have led many to question the general moral perception and ethical judgments of individuals. The present study examined two forms of a straightforward ethical decision-making (EDM) tool (ACED IT cognitive map) that could be a relatively simple instrument for…

Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael Hand

2017-01-01

Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

Interprofessional practice and decision support: an organizational framework applied to a mental health setting.

PubMed

Campbell, Susan; Stowe, Karen; Ozanne, Elissa M

2011-11-01

Decision support as a means to assist people in making healthcare decisions has been discussed extensively in the medical literature. However, the potential for use of decision support and decision aids with people with psychiatric disabilities in order to promote recovery has only begun to be researched and discussed in the mental health literature. Organizational factors that foster interprofessional practice within a decision support environment focused on mental health issues are examined in this paper.

Hirarchical emotion calculation model for virtual human modellin - biomed 2010.

PubMed

Zhao, Yue; Wright, David

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a new emotion generation method for virtual human modelling. The method includes a novel hierarchical emotion structure, a group of emotion calculation equations and a simple heuristics decision making mechanism, which enables virtual humans to perform emotionally in real-time according to their internal and external factors. Emotion calculation equations used in this research were derived from psychologic emotion measurements. Virtual humans can utilise the information in virtual memory and emotion calculation equations to generate their own numerical emotion states within the hierarchical emotion structure. Those emotion states are important internal references for virtual humans to adopt appropriate behaviours and also key cues for their decision making. A simple heuristics theory is introduced and integrated into decision making process in order to make the virtual humans decision making more like a real human. A data interface which connects the emotion calculation and the decision making structure together has also been designed and simulated to test the method in Virtools environment.

Implementation of workflow engine technology to deliver basic clinical decision support functionality.

PubMed

Huser, Vojtech; Rasmussen, Luke V; Oberg, Ryan; Starren, Justin B

2011-04-10

Workflow engine technology represents a new class of software with the ability to graphically model step-based knowledge. We present application of this novel technology to the domain of clinical decision support. Successful implementation of decision support within an electronic health record (EHR) remains an unsolved research challenge. Previous research efforts were mostly based on healthcare-specific representation standards and execution engines and did not reach wide adoption. We focus on two challenges in decision support systems: the ability to test decision logic on retrospective data prior prospective deployment and the challenge of user-friendly representation of clinical logic. We present our implementation of a workflow engine technology that addresses the two above-described challenges in delivering clinical decision support. Our system is based on a cross-industry standard of XML (extensible markup language) process definition language (XPDL). The core components of the system are a workflow editor for modeling clinical scenarios and a workflow engine for execution of those scenarios. We demonstrate, with an open-source and publicly available workflow suite, that clinical decision support logic can be executed on retrospective data. The same flowchart-based representation can also function in a prospective mode where the system can be integrated with an EHR system and respond to real-time clinical events. We limit the scope of our implementation to decision support content generation (which can be EHR system vendor independent). We do not focus on supporting complex decision support content delivery mechanisms due to lack of standardization of EHR systems in this area. We present results of our evaluation of the flowchart-based graphical notation as well as architectural evaluation of our implementation using an established evaluation framework for clinical decision support architecture. We describe an implementation of a free workflow technology software suite (available at http://code.google.com/p/healthflow) and its application in the domain of clinical decision support. Our implementation seamlessly supports clinical logic testing on retrospective data and offers a user-friendly knowledge representation paradigm. With the presented software implementation, we demonstrate that workflow engine technology can provide a decision support platform which evaluates well against an established clinical decision support architecture evaluation framework. Due to cross-industry usage of workflow engine technology, we can expect significant future functionality enhancements that will further improve the technology's capacity to serve as a clinical decision support platform.

An integrated decision support system for diagnosing and managing patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed Central

Aronsky, D.; Haug, P. J.

1999-01-01

Decision support systems that integrate guidelines have become popular applications to reduce variation and deliver cost-effective care. However, adverse characteristics of decision support systems, such as additional and time-consuming data entry or manually identifying eligible patients, result in a "behavioral bottleneck" that prevents decision support systems to become part of the clinical routine. This paper describes the design and the implementation of an integrated decision support system that explores a novel approach for bypassing the behavioral bottleneck. The real-time decision support system does not require health care providers to enter additional data and consists of a diagnostic and a management component. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 PMID:10566348

Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

Modeling Water Resource Systems Accounting for Water-Related Energy Use, GHG Emissions and Water-Dependent Energy Generation in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escriva-Bou, A.; Lund, J. R.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

2015-12-01

Most individual processes relating water and energy interdependence have been assessed in many different ways over the last decade. It is time to step up and include the results of these studies in management by proportionating a tool for integrating these processes in decision-making to effectively understand the tradeoffs between water and energy from management options and scenarios. A simple but powerful decision support system (DSS) for water management is described that includes water-related energy use and GHG emissions not solely from the water operations, but also from final water end uses, including demands from cities, agriculture, environment and the energy sector. Because one of the main drivers of energy use and GHG emissions is water pumping from aquifers, the DSS combines a surface water management model with a simple groundwater model, accounting for their interrelationships. The model also explicitly includes economic data to optimize water use across sectors during shortages and calculate return flows from different uses. Capabilities of the DSS are demonstrated on a case study over California's intertied water system. Results show that urban end uses account for most GHG emissions of the entire water cycle, but large water conveyance produces significant peaks over the summer season. Also the development of more efficient water application on the agricultural sector has increased the total energy consumption and the net water use in the basins.

Cyborg practices: call-handlers and computerised decision support systems in urgent and emergency care.

PubMed

Pope, Catherine; Halford, Susan; Turnbull, Joanne; Prichard, Jane

2014-06-01

This article draws on data collected during a 2-year project examining the deployment of a computerised decision support system. This computerised decision support system was designed to be used by non-clinical staff for dealing with calls to emergency (999) and urgent care (out-of-hours) services. One of the promises of computerised decisions support technologies is that they can 'hold' vast amounts of sophisticated clinical knowledge and combine it with decision algorithms to enable standardised decision-making by non-clinical (clerical) staff. This article draws on our ethnographic study of this computerised decision support system in use, and we use our analysis to question the 'automated' vision of decision-making in healthcare call-handling. We show that embodied and experiential (human) expertise remains central and highly salient in this work, and we propose that the deployment of the computerised decision support system creates something new, that this conjunction of computer and human creates a cyborg practice.

Development of a decision support system for analysis and solutions of prolonged standing in the workplace.

PubMed

Halim, Isa; Arep, Hambali; Kamat, Seri Rahayu; Abdullah, Rohana; Omar, Abdul Rahman; Ismail, Ahmad Rasdan

2014-06-01

Prolonged standing has been hypothesized as a vital contributor to discomfort and muscle fatigue in the workplace. The objective of this study was to develop a decision support system that could provide systematic analysis and solutions to minimize the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. The integration of object-oriented programming and a Model Oriented Simultaneous Engineering System were used to design the architecture of the decision support system. Validation of the decision support system was carried out in two manufacturing companies. The validation process showed that the decision support system produced reliable results. The decision support system is a reliable advisory tool for providing analysis and solutions to problems related to the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Further testing of the decision support system is suggested before it is used commercially.

Development of a Decision Support System for Analysis and Solutions of Prolonged Standing in the Workplace

PubMed Central

Halim, Isa; Arep, Hambali; Kamat, Seri Rahayu; Abdullah, Rohana; Omar, Abdul Rahman; Ismail, Ahmad Rasdan

2014-01-01

Background Prolonged standing has been hypothesized as a vital contributor to discomfort and muscle fatigue in the workplace. The objective of this study was to develop a decision support system that could provide systematic analysis and solutions to minimize the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Methods The integration of object-oriented programming and a Model Oriented Simultaneous Engineering System were used to design the architecture of the decision support system. Results Validation of the decision support system was carried out in two manufacturing companies. The validation process showed that the decision support system produced reliable results. Conclusion The decision support system is a reliable advisory tool for providing analysis and solutions to problems related to the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Further testing of the decision support system is suggested before it is used commercially. PMID:25180141

Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System

Treesearch

Erin Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman; Mark A. Finney; Tom Zimmerman; Robert C. Seli; Lisa M. Elenz; David E. Calkin; John R. Fiedler

2011-01-01

A new decision support tool, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) has been developed to support risk-informed decision-making for individual fires in the United States. WFDSS accesses national weather data and forecasts, fire behavior prediction, economic assessment, smoke management assessment, and landscape databases to efficiently formulate and apply...

Decision Support for Ecosystem Management (Chapter 28)

Treesearch

Keith Reynolds; Jennifer Bjork; Rachel Riemann Hershey; Dan Schmoldt; John Payne; Susan King; Lee DeCola; Mark J. Twery; Pat Cunningham

1999-01-01

This chapter presents a management perspective on decision support for ecosystem management.The Introduction provides a brief historical overview of decision support technology as it has been used in natural resource management, discusses the role of decision support in ecosystem management as we see it, and summarizes the current state of the technology.

Whose decision is it anyway? How clinicians support decision-making participation after acquired brain injury.

PubMed

Knox, Lucy; Douglas, Jacinta M; Bigby, Christine

2013-01-01

To raise professional awareness of factors that may influence the support offered by clinicians to people with acquired brain injury (ABI), and to consider the potential implications of these factors in terms of post-injury rehabilitation and living. A review of the literature was conducted to identify factors that determine how clinicians provide support and influence opportunities for individuals with ABI to participate in decision making across the rehabilitation continuum. Clinical case studies are used to highlight two specific issues: (1) hidden assumptions on the part of the practitioner, and (2) perceptions of risk operating in clinical practice. There are a range of factors which may influence the decision-making support provided by clinicians and, ultimately, shape lifetime outcomes for individuals with ABI. A multidimensional framework may assist clinicians to identify relevant factors and consider their potential implications including those that influence how clinicians involved in supporting decision making approach this task. Participation in decision making is an undisputed human right and central to the provision of person-centred care. Further research is required to understand how clinical practice can maximise both opportunities and support for increased decision-making participation by individuals with ABI. There is an increasing focus on the rights of all individuals to be supported to participate in decision making about their life. A number of changes associated with ABI mean that individuals with ABI will require support with decision making. Clinicians have a critical role in providing this support over the course of the rehabilitation continuum. Clinicians need to be aware of the range of factors that may influence the decision-making support they provide. A multidimensional framework may be used by clinicians to identify influences on the decision-making support they provide.

Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-29

decision under risk is the deriva- .- tion of the expected utility rule from simple principles of rational choice that make no . reference to long-run...corrective power of incentives depends on the nature of the particular error and cannot be taken for granted. The assumption of rationality of decision making ...easily eliminated by experience must be demonstrated. Finally, it is sometimes argued that failures of rationality in individual decision making are

ICU scoring systems allow prediction of patient outcomes and comparison of ICU performance.

PubMed

Becker, R B; Zimmerman, J E

1996-07-01

Too much time and effort are wasted in attempts to pass final judgment on whether systems for ICU prognostication are "good or bad" and whether they "do or do not" provide a simple answer to the complex and often unpredictable question of individual mortality in the ICU. A substantial amount of data supports the usefulness of general ICU prognostic systems in comparing ICU performance with respect to a wide variety of endpoints, including ICU and hospital mortality, duration of stay, and efficiency of resource use. Work in progress is analyzing both general resource use and specific therapeutic interventions. It also is time to fully acknowledge that statistics never can predict whether a patient will die with 100% accuracy. There always will be exceptions to the rule, and physicians frequently will have information that is not included in prognostic models. In addition, the values of both physicians and patients frequently lead to differences in how a probability in interpreted; for some, a 95% probability estimate means that death is near and, for others, this estimate represents a tangible 5% chance for survival. This means that physicians must learn how to integrate such estimates into their medical decisions. In doing so, it is our hope that prognostic systems are not viewed as oversimplifying or automating clinical decisions. Rather, such systems provide objective data on which physicians may ground a spectrum of decisions regarding either escalation or withdrawal of therapy in critically ill patients. These systems do not dehumanize our decision-making process but, rather, help eliminate physician reliance on emotional, heuristic, poorly calibrated, or overly pessimistic subjective estimates. No decision regarding patient care can be considered best if the facts upon which it is based on imprecise or biased. Future research will improve the accuracy of individual patient predictions but, even with the highest degree of precision, such predictions are useful only in support of, and not as a substitute for, good clinical judgment.

Toward the Modularization of Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raskin, R. G.

2009-12-01

Decision support systems are typically developed entirely from scratch without the use of modular components. This “stovepiped” approach is inefficient and costly because it prevents a developer from leveraging the data, models, tools, and services of other developers. Even when a decision support component is made available, it is difficult to know what problem it solves, how it relates to other components, or even that the component exists, The Spatial Decision Support (SDS) Consortium was formed in 2008 to organize the body of knowledge in SDS within a common portal. The portal identifies the canonical steps in the decision process and enables decision support components to be registered, categorized, and searched. This presentation describes how a decision support system can be assembled from modular models, data, tools and services, based on the needs of the Earth science application.

Awareness of financial skills in dementia.

PubMed

Van Wielingen, L E; Tuokko, H A; Cramer, K; Mateer, C A; Hultsch, D F

2004-07-01

The present study examined the relations among levels of cognitive functioning, executive dysfunction, and awareness of financial management capabilities among a sample of 42 community-dwelling persons with dementia. Financial tasks on the Measure of Awareness of Financial Skills (MAFS) were dichotomized as simple or complex based on Piaget's operational levels of childhood cognitive development. Severity of global cognitive impairment and executive dysfunction were significantly related to awareness of financial abilities as measured by informant-participant discrepancy scores on the MAFS. For persons with mild and moderate/severe dementia, and persons with and without executive dysfunction, proportions of awareness within simple and complex financial task categories were tabulated. Significantly less awareness of financial abilities occurred on complex compared with simple tasks. Individuals with mild dementia were significantly less aware of abilities on complex items, whereas persons with moderate/severe dementia were less aware of abilities, regardless of task complexity. Similar patterns of awareness were observed for individuals with and without executive dysfunction. These findings support literature suggesting that deficits associated with dementia first occur for complex cognitive tasks involving inductive reasoning or decision-making in novel situations, and identify where loss of function in the financial domain may first be expected. Copyright Taylor & Francis Ltd

Systematic Review of Medical Informatics-Supported Medication Decision Making.

PubMed

Melton, Brittany L

2017-01-01

This systematic review sought to assess the applications and implications of current medical informatics-based decision support systems related to medication prescribing and use. Studies published between January 2006 and July 2016 which were indexed in PubMed and written in English were reviewed, and 39 studies were ultimately included. Most of the studies looked at computerized provider order entry or clinical decision support systems. Most studies examined decision support systems as a means of reducing errors or risk, particularly associated with medication prescribing, whereas a few studies evaluated the impact medical informatics-based decision support systems have on workflow or operations efficiency. Most studies identified benefits associated with decision support systems, but some indicate there is room for improvement.

Emergency material allocation with time-varying supply-demand based on dynamic optimization method for river chemical spills.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Wang, Peng

2018-04-13

Aiming to minimize the damage caused by river chemical spills, efficient emergency material allocation is critical for an actual emergency rescue decision-making in a quick response. In this study, an emergency material allocation framework based on time-varying supply-demand constraint is developed to allocate emergency material, minimize the emergency response time, and satisfy the dynamic emergency material requirements in post-accident phases dealing with river chemical spills. In this study, the theoretically critical emergency response time is firstly obtained for the emergency material allocation system to select a series of appropriate emergency material warehouses as potential supportive centers. Then, an enumeration method is applied to identify the practically critical emergency response time, the optimum emergency material allocation and replenishment scheme. Finally, the developed framework is applied to a computational experiment based on south-to-north water transfer project in China. The results illustrate that the proposed methodology is a simple and flexible tool for appropriately allocating emergency material to satisfy time-dynamic demands during emergency decision-making. Therefore, the decision-makers can identify an appropriate emergency material allocation scheme in a balance between time-effective and cost-effective objectives under the different emergency pollution conditions.

How to guide - transit operations decision support systems (TODSS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

Transit Operations Decision Support Systems (TODSS) are decision support systems designed to support dispatchers in real-time bus operations management in response to incidents, special events, and other changing conditions in order to restore servic...

The wisdom of crowds for visual search

PubMed Central

Juni, Mordechai Z.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2017-01-01

Decision-making accuracy typically increases through collective integration of people’s judgments into group decisions, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. For simple perceptual laboratory tasks, classic signal detection theory specifies the upper limit for collective integration benefits obtained by weighted averaging of people’s confidences, and simple majority voting can often approximate that limit. Life-critical perceptual decisions often involve searching large image data (e.g., medical, security, and aerial imagery), but the expected benefits and merits of using different pooling algorithms are unknown for such tasks. Here, we show that expected pooling benefits are significantly greater for visual search than for single-location perceptual tasks and the prediction given by classic signal detection theory. In addition, we show that simple majority voting obtains inferior accuracy benefits for visual search relative to averaging and weighted averaging of observers’ confidences. Analysis of gaze behavior across observers suggests that the greater collective integration benefits for visual search arise from an interaction between the foveated properties of the human visual system (high foveal acuity and low peripheral acuity) and observers’ nonexhaustive search patterns, and can be predicted by an extended signal detection theory framework with trial to trial sampling from a varying mixture of high and low target detectabilities across observers (SDT-MIX). These findings advance our theoretical understanding of how to predict and enhance the wisdom of crowds for real world search tasks and could apply more generally to any decision-making task for which the minority of group members with high expertise varies from decision to decision. PMID:28490500

Applying of Decision Tree Analysis to Risk Factors Associated with Pressure Ulcers in Long-Term Care Facilities.

PubMed

Moon, Mikyung; Lee, Soo-Kyoung

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use decision tree analysis to explore the factors associated with pressure ulcers (PUs) among elderly people admitted to Korean long-term care facilities. The data were extracted from the 2014 National Inpatient Sample (NIS)-data of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). A MapReduce-based program was implemented to join and filter 5 tables of the NIS. The outcome predicted by the decision tree model was the prevalence of PUs as defined by the Korean Standard Classification of Disease-7 (KCD-7; code L89 * ). Using R 3.3.1, a decision tree was generated with the finalized 15,856 cases and 830 variables. The decision tree displayed 15 subgroups with 8 variables showing 0.804 accuracy, 0.820 sensitivity, and 0.787 specificity. The most significant primary predictor of PUs was length of stay less than 0.5 day. Other predictors were the presence of an infectious wound dressing, followed by having diagnoses numbering less than 3.5 and the presence of a simple dressing. Among diagnoses, "injuries to the hip and thigh" was the top predictor ranking 5th overall. Total hospital cost exceeding 2,200,000 Korean won (US $2,000) rounded out the top 7. These results support previous studies that showed length of stay, comorbidity, and total hospital cost were associated with PUs. Moreover, wound dressings were commonly used to treat PUs. They also show that machine learning, such as a decision tree, could effectively predict PUs using big data.

Neurons in Dorsal Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signal Postdecisional Variables in a Foraging Task

PubMed Central

Hayden, Benjamin Y.

2014-01-01

The dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) is a key hub of the brain's executive control system. Although a great deal is known about its role in outcome monitoring and behavioral adjustment, whether and how it contributes to the decision process remain unclear. Some theories suggest that dACC neurons track decision variables (e.g., option values) that feed into choice processes and is thus “predecisional.” Other theories suggest that dACC activity patterns differ qualitatively depending on the choice that is made and is thus “postdecisional.” To compare these hypotheses, we examined responses of 124 dACC neurons in a simple foraging task in which monkeys accepted or rejected offers of delayed rewards. In this task, options that vary in benefit (reward size) and cost (delay) appear for 1 s; accepting the option provides the cued reward after the cued delay. To get at dACC neurons' contributions to decisions, we focused on responses around the time of choice, several seconds before the reward and the end of the trial. We found that dACC neurons signal the foregone value of the rejected option, a postdecisional variable. Neurons also signal the profitability (that is, the relative value) of the offer, but even these signals are qualitatively different on accept and reject decisions, meaning that they are also postdecisional. These results suggest that dACC can be placed late in the decision process and also support models that give it a regulatory role in decision, rather than serving as a site of comparison. PMID:24403162

CorRECTreatment: A Web-based Decision Support Tool for Rectal Cancer Treatment that Uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree

PubMed Central

Karakülah, G.; Dicle, O.; Sökmen, S.; Çelikoğlu, C.C.

2015-01-01

Summary Background The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians’ decision making. Objective The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. Methods The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. Results In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. Conclusions The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options. PMID:25848413

CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

PubMed

Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

2015-01-01

The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

Energy Decision Science and Informatics | Integrated Energy Solutions |

Science.gov Websites

Science Advanced decision science methods include multi-objective and multi-criteria decision support. Our decision science methods, including multi-objective and multi-criteria decision support. For example, we

Intelligence moderates neural responses to monetary reward and punishment.

PubMed

Hawes, Daniel R; DeYoung, Colin G; Gray, Jeremy R; Rustichini, Aldo

2014-05-01

The relations between intelligence (IQ) and neural responses to monetary gains and losses were investigated in a simple decision task. In 94 healthy adults, typical responses of striatal blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal after monetary reward and punishment were weaker for subjects with higher IQ. IQ-moderated differential responses to gains and losses were also found for regions in the medial prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, and left inferior frontal cortex. These regions have previously been identified with the subjective utility of monetary outcomes. Analysis of subjects' behavior revealed a correlation between IQ and the extent to which choices were related to experienced decision outcomes in preceding trials. Specifically, higher IQ predicted behavior to be more strongly correlated with an extended period of previously experienced decision outcomes, whereas lower IQ predicted behavior to be correlated exclusively to the most recent decision outcomes. We link these behavioral and imaging findings to a theoretical model capable of describing a role for intelligence during the evaluation of rewards generated by unknown probabilistic processes. Our results demonstrate neural differences in how people of different intelligence respond to experienced monetary rewards and punishments. Our theoretical discussion offers a functional description for how these individual differences may be linked to choice behavior. Together, our results and model support the hypothesis that observed correlations between intelligence and preferences may be rooted in the way decision outcomes are experienced ex post, rather than deriving exclusively from how choices are evaluated ex ante.

Does physician communication style impact patient report of decision quality for breast cancer treatment?

PubMed

Martinez, Kathryn A; Resnicow, Ken; Williams, Geoffrey C; Silva, Marlene; Abrahamse, Paul; Shumway, Dean A; Wallner, Lauren P; Katz, Steven J; Hawley, Sarah T

2016-12-01

Provider communication that supports patient autonomy has been associated with numerous positive patient outcomes. However, to date, no research has examined the relationship between perceived provider communication style and patient-assessed decision quality in breast cancer. Using a population-based sample of women with localized breast cancer, we assessed patient perceptions of autonomy-supportive communication from their surgeons and medical oncologists, as well as patient-reported decision quality. We used multivariable linear regression to examine the association between autonomy-supportive communication and subjective decision quality for surgery and chemotherapy decisions, controlling for sociodemographic and clinical factors, as well as patient-reported communication preference (non-directive or directive). Among the 1690 women included in the overall sample, patient-reported decision quality scores were positively associated with higher levels of perceived autonomy-supportive communication from surgeons (β=0.30; p<0.001) and medical oncologists (β=0.26; p<0.001). Patient communication style preference moderated the association between physician communication style received and perceived decision quality. Autonomy-supportive communication by physicians was associated with higher subjective decision quality among women with localized breast cancer. These results support future efforts to design interventions that enhance autonomy-supportive communication. Autonomy-supportive communication by cancer doctors can improve patients' perceived decision quality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does physician communication style impact patient report of decision quality for breast cancer treatment?

PubMed Central

Resnicow, Ken; Williams, Geoffrey C.; Silva, Marlene; Abrahamse, Paul; Shumway, Dean; Wallner, Lauren; Katz, Steven; Hawley, Sarah

2016-01-01

Objective Provider communication that supports patient autonomy has been associated with numerous positive patient outcomes. However, to date, no research has examined the relationship between perceived provider communication style and patient-assessed decision quality in breast cancer. Methods Using a population-based sample of women with localized breast cancer, we assessed patient perceptions of autonomy-supportive communication from their surgeons and medical oncologists, as well as patient-reported decision quality. We used multivariable linear regression to examine the association between autonomy-supportive communication and subjective decision quality for surgery and chemotherapy decisions, controlling for sociodemographic and clinical factors, as well as patient-reported communication preference (non-directive or directive). Results Among the 1,690 women included in the overall sample, patient-reported decision quality scores were positively associated with higher levels of perceived autonomy-supportive communication from surgeons (β=0.30; p<0.001) and medical oncologists (β=0.26; p<0.001). Patient communication style preference moderated the association between physician communication style received and perceived decision quality. Conclusion Autonomy-supportive communication by physicians was associated with higher subjective decision quality among women with localized breast cancer. These results support future efforts to design interventions that enhance autonomy-supportive communication. Practice Implications Autonomy-supportive communication by cancer doctors can improve patients’ perceived decision quality. PMID:27395750

Overlapping Risky Decision-Making and Olfactory Processing Ability in HIV-Infected Individuals.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher; Rai, Narayan; McLean, Charlee K; Hipolito, Maria Mananita S; Hamilton, Flora Terrell; Kapetanovic, Suad; Nwulia, Evaristus A

2017-09-01

Given neuroimaging evidences of overlap in the circuitries for decision-making and olfactory processing, we examined the hypothesis that impairment in psychophysical tasks of olfaction would independently predict poor performances on Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a laboratory task that closely mimics real-life decision-making, in a US cohort of HIV-infected (HIV+) individuals. IGT and psychophysical tasks of olfaction were administered to a Washington DC-based cohort of largely African American HIV+ subjects (N=100), and to a small number of demographically-matched non-HIV healthy controls (N=43) from a different study. Constructs of olfactory ability and decision-making were examined through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to evaluate the validity of the path relationship between these two constructs. The 100 HIV+ participants (56% female; 96% African Americans; median age = 48 years) had median CD4 count of 576 cells/μl and median HIV RNA viral load <48 copies per milliliter. Majority of HIV+ participants performed randomly throughout the course of IGT tasks, and failed to demonstrate a learning curve. Confirmatory factor analysis provided support for a unidimensional factor underlying poor performances on IGT. Nomological validity for correlations between olfactory ability and IGT performance was confirmed through SEM. Finally, factor scores of olfactory ability and IGT performance strongly predicted 6 months history of drug use, while olfaction additionally predicted hallucinogen use. This study suggests that combination of simple, office-based tasks of olfaction and decision-making may identify those HIV+ individuals who are more prone to risky decision-making. This finding may have significant clinical, public health value if joint impairments in olfaction and IGT task correlates with more decreased activity in brain regions relevant to decision-making.

Towards ethical decision support and knowledge management in neonatal intensive care.

PubMed

Yang, L; Frize, M; Eng, P; Walker, R; Catley, C

2004-01-01

Recent studies in neonatal medicine, clinical nursing, and cognitive psychology have indicated the need to augment current decision-making practice in neonatal intensive care units with computerized, intelligent decision support systems. Rapid progress in artificial intelligence and knowledge management facilitates the design of collaborative ethical decision-support tools that allow clinicians to provide better support for parents facing inherently difficult choices, such as when to withdraw aggressive treatment. The appropriateness of using computers to support ethical decision-making is critically analyzed through research and literature review. In ethical dilemmas, multiple diverse participants need to communicate and function as a team to select the best treatment plan. In order to do this, physicians require reliable estimations of prognosis, while parents need a highly useable tool to help them assimilate complex medical issues and address their own value system. Our goal is to improve and structuralize the ethical decision-making that has become an inevitable part of modern neonatal care units. The paper contributes to clinical decision support by outlining the needs and basis for ethical decision support and justifying the proposed development efforts.

Implementation of workflow engine technology to deliver basic clinical decision support functionality

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Workflow engine technology represents a new class of software with the ability to graphically model step-based knowledge. We present application of this novel technology to the domain of clinical decision support. Successful implementation of decision support within an electronic health record (EHR) remains an unsolved research challenge. Previous research efforts were mostly based on healthcare-specific representation standards and execution engines and did not reach wide adoption. We focus on two challenges in decision support systems: the ability to test decision logic on retrospective data prior prospective deployment and the challenge of user-friendly representation of clinical logic. Results We present our implementation of a workflow engine technology that addresses the two above-described challenges in delivering clinical decision support. Our system is based on a cross-industry standard of XML (extensible markup language) process definition language (XPDL). The core components of the system are a workflow editor for modeling clinical scenarios and a workflow engine for execution of those scenarios. We demonstrate, with an open-source and publicly available workflow suite, that clinical decision support logic can be executed on retrospective data. The same flowchart-based representation can also function in a prospective mode where the system can be integrated with an EHR system and respond to real-time clinical events. We limit the scope of our implementation to decision support content generation (which can be EHR system vendor independent). We do not focus on supporting complex decision support content delivery mechanisms due to lack of standardization of EHR systems in this area. We present results of our evaluation of the flowchart-based graphical notation as well as architectural evaluation of our implementation using an established evaluation framework for clinical decision support architecture. Conclusions We describe an implementation of a free workflow technology software suite (available at http://code.google.com/p/healthflow) and its application in the domain of clinical decision support. Our implementation seamlessly supports clinical logic testing on retrospective data and offers a user-friendly knowledge representation paradigm. With the presented software implementation, we demonstrate that workflow engine technology can provide a decision support platform which evaluates well against an established clinical decision support architecture evaluation framework. Due to cross-industry usage of workflow engine technology, we can expect significant future functionality enhancements that will further improve the technology's capacity to serve as a clinical decision support platform. PMID:21477364

An Internationally Consented Standard for Nursing Process-Clinical Decision Support Systems in Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Müller-Staub, Maria; de Graaf-Waar, Helen; Paans, Wolter

2016-11-01

Nurses are accountable to apply the nursing process, which is key for patient care: It is a problem-solving process providing the structure for care plans and documentation. The state-of-the art nursing process is based on classifications that contain standardized concepts, and therefore, it is named Advanced Nursing Process. It contains valid assessments, nursing diagnoses, interventions, and nursing-sensitive patient outcomes. Electronic decision support systems can assist nurses to apply the Advanced Nursing Process. However, nursing decision support systems are missing, and no "gold standard" is available. The study aim is to develop a valid Nursing Process-Clinical Decision Support System Standard to guide future developments of clinical decision support systems. In a multistep approach, a Nursing Process-Clinical Decision Support System Standard with 28 criteria was developed. After pilot testing (N = 29 nurses), the criteria were reduced to 25. The Nursing Process-Clinical Decision Support System Standard was then presented to eight internationally known experts, who performed qualitative interviews according to Mayring. Fourteen categories demonstrate expert consensus on the Nursing Process-Clinical Decision Support System Standard and its content validity. All experts agreed the Advanced Nursing Process should be the centerpiece for the Nursing Process-Clinical Decision Support System and should suggest research-based, predefined nursing diagnoses and correct linkages between diagnoses, evidence-based interventions, and patient outcomes.

Multi-sensory integration in a small brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gepner, Ruben; Wolk, Jason; Gershow, Marc

Understanding how fluctuating multi-sensory stimuli are integrated and transformed in neural circuits has proved a difficult task. To address this question, we study the sensori-motor transformations happening in the brain of the Drosophila larva, a tractable model system with about 10,000 neurons. Using genetic tools that allow us to manipulate the activity of individual brain cells through their transparent body, we observe the stochastic decisions made by freely-behaving animals as their visual and olfactory environments fluctuate independently. We then use simple linear-nonlinear models to correlate outputs with relevant features in the inputs, and adaptive filtering processes to track changes in these relevant parameters used by the larva's brain to make decisions. We show how these techniques allow us to probe how statistics of stimuli from different sensory modalities combine to affect behavior, and can potentially guide our understanding of how neural circuits are anatomically and functionally integrated. Supported by NIH Grant 1DP2EB022359 and NSF Grant PHY-1455015.

An Integrated Product Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higgins, Chuck

1997-01-01

Mechanical Advantage is a mechanical design decision support system. Unlike our CAD/CAM cousins, Mechanical Advantage addresses true engineering processes, not just the form and fit of geometry. If we look at a traditional engineering environment, we see that an engineer starts with two things - performance goals and design rules. The intent is to have a product perform specific functions and accomplish that within a designated environment. Geometry should be a simple byproduct of that engineering process - not the controller of it. Mechanical Advantage is a performance modeler allowing engineers to consider all these criteria in making their decisions by providing such capabilities as critical parameter analysis, tolerance and sensitivity analysis, math driven Geometry, and automated design optimizations. If you should desire an industry standard solid model, we would produce an ACIS-based solid model. If you should desire an ANSI/ISO standard drawing, we would produce this as well with a virtual push of the button. For more information on this and other Advantage Series products, please contact the author.

Military Medical Decision Support for Homeland Defense During Emergency

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-12-01

abstraction hierarchy, three levels of information requirement for designing emergency training interface are recognized. These are epistemological ...support human decision making process is considered to be decision-centric. A typical decision-centric interface is supported by at least four design ... Designing Emergency Training Interface ......................................................................................... 5 Epistemological

A model of interval timing by neural integration.

PubMed

Simen, Patrick; Balci, Fuat; de Souza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D; Holmes, Philip

2011-06-22

We show that simple assumptions about neural processing lead to a model of interval timing as a temporal integration process, in which a noisy firing-rate representation of time rises linearly on average toward a response threshold over the course of an interval. Our assumptions include: that neural spike trains are approximately independent Poisson processes, that correlations among them can be largely cancelled by balancing excitation and inhibition, that neural populations can act as integrators, and that the objective of timed behavior is maximal accuracy and minimal variance. The model accounts for a variety of physiological and behavioral findings in rodents, monkeys, and humans, including ramping firing rates between the onset of reward-predicting cues and the receipt of delayed rewards, and universally scale-invariant response time distributions in interval timing tasks. It furthermore makes specific, well-supported predictions about the skewness of these distributions, a feature of timing data that is usually ignored. The model also incorporates a rapid (potentially one-shot) duration-learning procedure. Human behavioral data support the learning rule's predictions regarding learning speed in sequences of timed responses. These results suggest that simple, integration-based models should play as prominent a role in interval timing theory as they do in theories of perceptual decision making, and that a common neural mechanism may underlie both types of behavior.

Semantic Clinical Guideline Documents

PubMed Central

Eriksson, Henrik; Tu, Samson W.; Musen, Mark

2005-01-01

Decision-support systems based on clinical practice guidelines can support physicians and other health-care personnel in the process of following best practice consistently. A knowledge-based approach to represent guidelines makes it possible to encode computer-interpretable guidelines in a formal manner, perform consistency checks, and use the guidelines directly in decision-support systems. Decision-support authors and guideline users require guidelines in human-readable formats in addition to computer-interpretable ones (e.g., for guideline review and quality assurance). We propose a new document-oriented information architecture that combines knowledge-representation models with electronic and paper documents. The approach integrates decision-support modes with standard document formats to create a combined clinical-guideline model that supports on-line viewing, printing, and decision support. PMID:16779037

Using Best Practices to Extract, Organize, and Reuse Embedded Decision Support Content Knowledge Rules from Mature Clinical Systems.

PubMed

DesAutels, Spencer J; Fox, Zachary E; Giuse, Dario A; Williams, Annette M; Kou, Qing-Hua; Weitkamp, Asli; Neal R, Patel; Bettinsoli Giuse, Nunzia

2016-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) knowledge, embedded over time in mature medical systems, presents an interesting and complex opportunity for information organization, maintenance, and reuse. To have a holistic view of all decision support requires an in-depth understanding of each clinical system as well as expert knowledge of the latest evidence. This approach to clinical decision support presents an opportunity to unify and externalize the knowledge within rules-based decision support. Driven by an institutional need to prioritize decision support content for migration to new clinical systems, the Center for Knowledge Management and Health Information Technology teams applied their unique expertise to extract content from individual systems, organize it through a single extensible schema, and present it for discovery and reuse through a newly created Clinical Support Knowledge Acquisition and Archival Tool (CS-KAAT). CS-KAAT can build and maintain the underlying knowledge infrastructure needed by clinical systems.

Medication-related clinical decision support in computerized provider order entry systems: a review.

PubMed

Kuperman, Gilad J; Bobb, Anne; Payne, Thomas H; Avery, Anthony J; Gandhi, Tejal K; Burns, Gerard; Classen, David C; Bates, David W

2007-01-01

While medications can improve patients' health, the process of prescribing them is complex and error prone, and medication errors cause many preventable injuries. Computer provider order entry (CPOE) with clinical decision support (CDS), can improve patient safety and lower medication-related costs. To realize the medication-related benefits of CDS within CPOE, one must overcome significant challenges. Healthcare organizations implementing CPOE must understand what classes of CDS their CPOE systems can support, assure that clinical knowledge underlying their CDS systems is reasonable, and appropriately represent electronic patient data. These issues often influence to what extent an institution will succeed with its CPOE implementation and achieve its desired goals. Medication-related decision support is probably best introduced into healthcare organizations in two stages, basic and advanced. Basic decision support includes drug-allergy checking, basic dosing guidance, formulary decision support, duplicate therapy checking, and drug-drug interaction checking. Advanced decision support includes dosing support for renal insufficiency and geriatric patients, guidance for medication-related laboratory testing, drug-pregnancy checking, and drug-disease contraindication checking. In this paper, the authors outline some of the challenges associated with both basic and advanced decision support and discuss how those challenges might be addressed. The authors conclude with summary recommendations for delivering effective medication-related clinical decision support addressed to healthcare organizations, application and knowledge base vendors, policy makers, and researchers.

Research on web-based decision support system for sports competitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Hanqiang

2010-07-01

This paper describes the system architecture and implementation technology of the decision support system for sports competitions, discusses the design of decision-making modules, management modules and security of the system, and proposes the development idea of building a web-based decision support system for sports competitions.

A reexamination of the evidence for the somatic marker hypothesis: what participants really know in the Iowa gambling task.

PubMed

Maia, Tiago V; McClelland, James L

2004-11-09

Bechara, Damasio, and coworkers [Bechara, A., Damasio, H., Tranel, D. & Damasio, A. R. (1997) Science 275, 1293-1295] have reported that normal participants decide advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy in a simple card game designed to mimic real-life decision-making. Bechara et al. have used this result to support their view that nonconscious somatic markers can guide advantageous behavior. By using more sensitive methods, we show that participants have much more knowledge about the game than previously thought. In fact, participants report knowledge of the advantageous strategy more reliably than they behave advantageously. Furthermore, when they behave advantageously, their verbal reports nearly always reveal evidence of quantitative knowledge about the outcomes of the decks that would be sufficient to guide such advantageous behavior. In addition, there is evidence that participants also have access to more qualitative reportable knowledge. These results are compatible with the view that, in this task, both overt behavior and verbal reports reflect sampling from consciously accessible knowledge; there is no need to appeal to nonconscious somatic markers. We also discuss the findings of other studies that similarly suggest alternative interpretations of other evidence previously used to support a role for somatic markers in decision-making.

A Spatially-Explicit Technique for Evaluation of Alternative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystems contribute to maintaining human well-being directly through provision of goods and indirectly through provision of services that support clean water, clean air, flood protection and atmospheric stability. Transparently accounting for biophysical attributes from which humans derive benefit is essential to support dialog among the public, resource managers, decision makers, and scientists. We analyzed the potential ecosystem goods and services production from alternative future land use scenarios in the US Tampa Bay region. Ecosystem goods and service metrics included carbon sequestration, nitrogen removal, air pollutant removal, and stormwater retention. Each scenario was compared to a 2006 baseline land use. Estimated production of denitrification services changed by 28% and carbon sequestration by 20% between 2006 and the “business as usual” scenario. An alternative scenario focused on “natural resource protection” resulted in an estimated 9% loss in air pollution removal. Stormwater retention was estimated to change 18% from 2006 to 2060 projections. Cost effective areas for conservation, almost 1588 ha, beyond current conservation lands, were identified by comparing ecosystem goods and services production to assessed land values. Our ecosystem goods and services approach provides a simple and quantitative way to examine a more complete set of potential outcomes from land use decisions. This study demonstrates an approach for spatially expli

Housing decision making methods for initiation development phase process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainal, Rozlin; Kasim, Narimah; Sarpin, Norliana; Wee, Seow Ta; Shamsudin, Zarina

2017-10-01

Late delivery and sick housing project problems were attributed to poor decision making. These problems are the string of housing developer that prefers to create their own approach based on their experiences and expertise with the simplest approach by just applying the obtainable standards and rules in decision making. This paper seeks to identify the decision making methods for housing development at the initiation phase in Malaysia. The research involved Delphi method by using questionnaire survey which involved 50 numbers of developers as samples for the primary stage of collect data. However, only 34 developers contributed to the second stage of the information gathering process. At the last stage, only 12 developers were left for the final data collection process. Finding affirms that Malaysian developers prefer to make their investment decisions based on simple interpolation of historical data and using simple statistical or mathematical techniques in producing the required reports. It was suggested that they seemed to skip several important decision-making functions at the primary development stage. These shortcomings were mainly due to time and financial constraints and the lack of statistical or mathematical expertise among the professional and management groups in the developer organisations.

Chemotherapy and treatment scheduling: the Johns Hopkins Oncology Center Outpatient Department.

PubMed Central

Majidi, F.; Enterline, J. P.; Ashley, B.; Fowler, M. E.; Ogorzalek, L. L.; Gaudette, R.; Stuart, G. J.; Fulton, M.; Ettinger, D. S.

1993-01-01

The Chemotherapy and Treatment Scheduling System provides integrated appointment and facility scheduling for very complex procedures. It is fully integrated with other scheduling systems at The Johns Hopkins Oncology Center and is supported by the Oncology Clinical Information System (OCIS). It provides a combined visual and textual environment for the scheduling of events that have multiple dimensions and dependencies on other scheduled events. It is also fully integrated with other clinical decision support and ancillary systems within OCIS. The system has resulted in better patient flow through the ambulatory care areas of the Center. Implementing the system required changes in behavior among physicians, staff, and patients. This system provides a working example of building a sophisticated rule-based scheduling system using a relatively simple paradigm. It also is an example of what can be achieved when there is total integration between the operational and clinical components of patient care automation. PMID:8130453

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-07-27

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

A two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Amland, Robert C; Lyons, Jason J; Greene, Tracy L; Haley, James M

2015-10-01

To examine the diagnostic accuracy of a two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis. Observational cohort study employing a two-stage sepsis clinical decision support to recognise and stratify patients with sepsis. The stage one component was comprised of a cloud-based clinical decision support with 24/7 surveillance to detect patients at risk of sepsis. The cloud-based clinical decision support delivered notifications to the patients' designated nurse, who then electronically contacted a provider. The second stage component comprised a sepsis screening and stratification form integrated into the patient electronic health record, essentially an evidence-based decision aid, used by providers to assess patients at bedside. Urban, 284 acute bed community hospital in the USA; 16,000 hospitalisations annually. Data on 2620 adult patients were collected retrospectively in 2014 after the clinical decision support was implemented. 'Suspected infection' was the established gold standard to assess clinical decision support clinimetric performance. A sepsis alert activated on 417 (16%) of 2620 adult patients hospitalised. Applying 'suspected infection' as standard, the patient population characteristics showed 72% sensitivity and 73% positive predictive value. A postalert screening conducted by providers at bedside of 417 patients achieved 81% sensitivity and 94% positive predictive value. Providers documented against 89% patients with an alert activated by clinical decision support and completed 75% of bedside screening and stratification of patients with sepsis within one hour from notification. A clinical decision support binary alarm system with cross-checking functionality improves early recognition and facilitates stratification of patients with sepsis.

Supporting Fisheries Management by Means of Complex Models: Can We Point out Isles of Robustness in a Sea of Uncertainty?

PubMed Central

Gasche, Loïc; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul

2013-01-01

Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters. PMID:24204873

Supporting fisheries management by means of complex models: can we point out isles of robustness in a sea of uncertainty?

PubMed

Gasche, Loïc; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul

2013-01-01

Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters.

A Successful Implementation Strategy to Support Adoption of Decision Making in Mental Health Services.

PubMed

MacDonald-Wilson, Kim L; Hutchison, Shari L; Karpov, Irina; Wittman, Paul; Deegan, Patricia E

2017-04-01

Individual involvement in treatment decisions with providers, often through the use of decision support aids, improves quality of care. This study investigates an implementation strategy to bring decision support to community mental health centers (CMHC). Fifty-two CMHCs implemented a decision support toolkit supported by a 12-month learning collaborative using the Breakthrough Series model. Participation in learning collaborative activities was high, indicating feasibility of the implementation model. Progress by staff in meeting process aims around utilization of components of the toolkit improved significantly over time (p < .0001). Survey responses by individuals in service corroborate successful implementation. Community-based providers were able to successfully implement decision support in mental health services as evidenced by improved process outcomes and sustained practices over 1 year through the structure of the learning collaborative model.

Making decisions at the end of life when caring for a person with dementia: a literature review to explore the potential use of heuristics in difficult decision-making.

PubMed

Mathew, R; Davies, N; Manthorpe, J; Iliffe, S

2016-07-19

Decision-making, when providing care and treatment for a person with dementia at the end of life, can be complex and challenging. There is a lack of guidance available to support practitioners and family carers, and even those experienced in end of life dementia care report a lack of confidence in decision-making. It is thought that the use of heuristics (rules of thumb) may aid decision-making. The aim of this study is to identify whether heuristics are used in end of life dementia care, and if so, to identify the context in which they are being used. A narrative literature review was conducted taking a systematic approach to the search strategy, using the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidelines. Rapid appraisal methodology was used in order to source specific and relevant literature regarding the use of heuristics in end of life dementia care. A search using terms related to dementia, palliative care and decision-making was conducted across 4 English language electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL) in 2015. The search identified 12 papers that contained an algorithm, guideline, decision tool or set of principles that we considered compatible with heuristic decision-making. The papers addressed swallowing and feeding difficulties, the treatment of pneumonia, management of pain and agitation, rationalising medication, ending life-sustaining treatment, and ensuring a good death. The use of heuristics in palliative or end of life dementia care is not described in the research literature. However, this review identified important decision-making principles, which are largely a reflection of expert opinion. These principles may have the potential to be developed into simple heuristics that could be used in practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Making decisions at the end of life when caring for a person with dementia: a literature review to explore the potential use of heuristics in difficult decision-making

PubMed Central

Mathew, R; Davies, N; Manthorpe, J; Iliffe, S

2016-01-01

Objective Decision-making, when providing care and treatment for a person with dementia at the end of life, can be complex and challenging. There is a lack of guidance available to support practitioners and family carers, and even those experienced in end of life dementia care report a lack of confidence in decision-making. It is thought that the use of heuristics (rules of thumb) may aid decision-making. The aim of this study is to identify whether heuristics are used in end of life dementia care, and if so, to identify the context in which they are being used. Design A narrative literature review was conducted taking a systematic approach to the search strategy, using the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidelines. Rapid appraisal methodology was used in order to source specific and relevant literature regarding the use of heuristics in end of life dementia care. Data sources A search using terms related to dementia, palliative care and decision-making was conducted across 4 English language electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL) in 2015. Results The search identified 12 papers that contained an algorithm, guideline, decision tool or set of principles that we considered compatible with heuristic decision-making. The papers addressed swallowing and feeding difficulties, the treatment of pneumonia, management of pain and agitation, rationalising medication, ending life-sustaining treatment, and ensuring a good death. Conclusions The use of heuristics in palliative or end of life dementia care is not described in the research literature. However, this review identified important decision-making principles, which are largely a reflection of expert opinion. These principles may have the potential to be developed into simple heuristics that could be used in practice. PMID:27436665

Overview of EPA tools for supporting local-, state- and regional-level decision makers addressing energy and environmental issues: NYC MARKAL Energy Systems Model and Municipal Solid Waste Decision Support Tool

EPA Science Inventory

A workshop will be conducted to demonstrate and focus on two decision support tools developed at EPA/ORD: 1. Community-scale MARKAL model: an energy-water technology evaluation tool and 2. Municipal Solid Waste Decision Support Tool (MSW DST). The Workshop will be part of Southea...

An adaptive model approach for quantitative wrist rigidity evaluation during deep brain stimulation surgery.

PubMed

Assis, Sofia; Costa, Pedro; Rosas, Maria Jose; Vaz, Rui; Silva Cunha, Joao Paulo

2016-08-01

Intraoperative evaluation of the efficacy of Deep Brain Stimulation includes evaluation of the effect on rigidity. A subjective semi-quantitative scale is used, dependent on the examiner perception and experience. A system was proposed previously, aiming to tackle this subjectivity, using quantitative data and providing real-time feedback of the computed rigidity reduction, hence supporting the physician decision. This system comprised of a gyroscope-based motion sensor in a textile band, placed in the patients hand, which communicated its measurements to a laptop. The latter computed a signal descriptor from the angular velocity of the hand during wrist flexion in DBS surgery. The first approach relied on using a general rigidity reduction model, regardless of the initial severity of the symptom. Thus, to enhance the performance of the previously presented system, we aimed to develop models for high and low baseline rigidity, according to the examiner assessment before any stimulation. This would allow a more patient-oriented approach. Additionally, usability was improved by having in situ processing in a smartphone, instead of a computer. Such system has shown to be reliable, presenting an accuracy of 82.0% and a mean error of 3.4%. Relatively to previous results, the performance was similar, further supporting the importance of considering the cogwheel rigidity to better infer about the reduction in rigidity. Overall, we present a simple, wearable, mobile system, suitable for intra-operatory conditions during DBS, supporting a physician in decision-making when setting stimulation parameters.

Surface transportation weather decision support requirements : operational concept description : advanced-integrated decision support using weather information for surface transportation decisions makers : draft version 2.0

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-07-14

This is a draft document for the Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support Requirements (STWDSR) project. The STWDSR project is being conducted for the FHWAs Office of Transportation Operations (HOTO) Road Weather Management Program by Mitre...

Analytical Support Capabilities of Turkish General Staff Scientific Decision Support Centre (SDSC) to Defence Transformation

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

RTO-MP-SAS-055 4 - 1 UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED Analytical Support Capabilities of Turkish General Staff Scientific...the end failed to achieve anything commensurate with the effort. The analytical support capabilities of Turkish Scientific Decision Support Center to...percent of the İpekkan, Z.; Özkil, A. (2005) Analytical Support Capabilities of Turkish General Staff Scientific Decision Support Centre (SDSC) to

Bi-Level Decision Making for Supporting Energy and Water Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2016-12-01

The inseparable relationship between energy production and water resources has led to the emerging energy-water nexus concept, which provides a means for integrated management and decision making of these two critical resources. However, the energy-water nexus frequently involves decision makers with different and competing management objectives. Furthermore, there is a challenge that decision makers and stakeholders might be making decisions sequentially from a higher level to a lower level, instead of at the same decision level, whereby the objective of a decision maker at a higher level should be satisfied first. In this study, a bi-level decision model is advanced to handle such decision-making situations for managing the energy-water nexus. The work represents a unique contribution to developing an integrated decision-support framework/tool to quantify and analyze the tradeoffs between the two-level energy-water nexus decision makers. Here, plans for electricity generation, fuel supply, water supply, capacity expansion of the power plants and environmental impacts are optimized to provide effective decision support. The developed decision-support framework is implemented in Julia (a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing) and is a part of the MADS (Model Analyses & Decision Support) framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). To demonstrate the capabilities of the developed methodology, a series of analyses are performed for synthetic problems consistent with actual real-world energy-water nexus management problems.

Development of transportation asset management decision support tools : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-09

This study developed a web-based prototype decision support platform to demonstrate the benefits of transportation asset management in monitoring asset performance, supporting asset funding decisions, planning budget tradeoffs, and optimizing resourc...

Preschoolers’ Novel Noun Extensions: Shape in Spite of Knowing Better

PubMed Central

Saalbach, Henrik; Schalk, Lennart

2011-01-01

We examined the puzzling research findings that when extending novel nouns, preschoolers rely on shape similarity (rather than categorical relations) while in other task contexts (e.g., property induction) they rely on categorical relations. Taking into account research on children’s word learning, categorization, and inductive inference we assume that preschoolers have both a shape-based and a category-based word extension strategy available and can switch between these two depending on which information is easily available. To this end, we tested preschoolers on two versions of a novel-noun label extension task. First, we paralleled the standard extension task commonly used by previous research. In this case, as expected, preschoolers predominantly selected same-shape items. Second, we supported preschoolers’ retrieval of item-related information from memory by asking them simple questions about each item prior to the label extension task. Here, they switched to a category-based strategy, thus, predominantly selecting same-category items. Finally, we revealed that this shape-to-category shift is specific to the word learning context as we did not find it in a non-lexical classification task. These findings support our assumption that preschoolers’ decision about word extension change in accordance with the availability of information (from task context or by memory retrieval). We conclude by suggesting that preschoolers’ noun extensions can be conceptualized within the framework of heuristic decision-making. This provides an ecologically plausible processing account with respect to which information is selected and how this information is integrated to act as a guideline for decision-making when novel words have to be generalized. PMID:22073036

A divide and conquer approach to cope with uncertainty, human health risk, and decision making in contaminant hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Bolster, Diogo; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Nowak, Wolfgang

2011-05-01

Assessing health risk in hydrological systems is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in the fields of hydrology and public health and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties and variabilities present in hydrological, physiological, and human behavioral parameters. Despite significant theoretical advancements in stochastic hydrology, there is still a dire need to further propagate these concepts to practical problems and to society in general. Following a recent line of work, we use fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis and to support related decision and management problems. Fault trees allow us to decompose the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural divide and conquer approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance, and stage of analysis. Three differences are highlighted in this paper when compared to previous works: (1) The fault tree proposed here accounts for the uncertainty in both hydrological and health components, (2) system failure within the fault tree is defined in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies that used fault trees used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows us to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Modifications and integration of the electronic tracking board in a pediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Dexheimer, Judith W; Kennebeck, Stephanie

2013-07-01

Electronic health records (EHRs) are used for data storage; provider, laboratory, and patient communication; clinical decision support; procedure and medication orders; and decision support alerts. Clinical decision support is part of any EHR and is designed to help providers make better decisions. The emergency department (ED) poses a unique environment to the use of EHRs and clinical decision support. Used effectively, computerized tracking boards can help improve flow, communication, and the dissemination of pertinent visit information between providers and other departments in a busy ED. We discuss the unique modifications and decisions made in the implementation of an EHR and computerized tracking board in a pediatric ED. We discuss the changing views based on provider roles, customization to the user interface including the layout and colors, decision support, tracking board best practices collected from other institutions and colleagues, and a case study of using reminders on the electronic tracking board to drive pain reassessments.

Decision support systems for ecosystem management: An evaluation of existing systems

Treesearch

H. Todd Mowrer; Klaus Barber; Joe Campbell; Nick Crookston; Cathy Dahms; John Day; Jim Laacke; Jim Merzenich; Steve Mighton; Mike Rauscher; Rick Sojda; Joyce Thompson; Peter Trenchi; Mark Twery

1997-01-01

This report evaluated 24 computer-aided decision support systems (DSS) that can support management decision-making in forest ecosystems. It compares the scope of each system, spatial capabilities, computational methods, development status, input and output requirements, user support availability, and system performance. Questionnaire responses from the DSS developers (...

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

PubMed

Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

2011-08-01

Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards Collaboration influence standards for the design of decision support interventions. However, this analysis points to the need to undertake more work in providing theoretical foundations for these interventions. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Advanced decision support for winter road maintenance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

This document provides an overview of the Federal Highway Administration's winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The MDSS is a decision support tool that has the ability to provide weather predictions focused toward the road surface. The...

Detroit deicing decision support tool : description, operation, and simulation results

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, : developed a deicing decision support tool, for Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW).1 The deicing decision support ...

The Instability of Instability

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-05-01

thermodynamic principles, changes cannot be effected without some cost. The decision - making associated with Model I can be viewed as rational behavior. Consider...number Democratic simple majority voting is perhaps the most widely used method of group decision making i;i our time. Current theory, based on...incorporate any of several plausible characteristics of decision - making , then the instability theorems do not hold and in fact the probability of

Use of Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling to Generate User-Friendly Decision Support Systems for the Design of Management Policies for Complex Human-Environmental Systems: A Case Study from the Varied Socio-environmental Landscape of Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Carrera, J.; Mellini, L.; Pineda, P.; Monterroso, O.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Adamowski, J. F.; Halbe, J.; Monardes, H.; Gálvez, J.

2014-12-01

The design of effective management policies for socioenvironmental systems requires the development of comprehensive, yet sufficiently simple, decision support systems (DSS) for policy makers. Guatemala is a particularly complex case, combining an enormous diversity of climates, geographies, and agroecosystems within a very small geographical scale. Although food insecurity levels are very high, indicating a generally inadequate management of the varied agroecosystems of the country, different regions have shown vastly different trends in food insecurity over the past decade, including between regions with similar geophysical and climatic characteristics and/or governmental programmes (e.g., agricultural support). These observations suggest two important points: firstly, that not merely environmental conditions but rather socio-environmental interactions play a crucial role in the successful management of human-environmental systems, and, secondly, that differences in the geophysical and climatic environments between the diverse regions significantly impact the success or failure of policies. This research uses participatory systems dynamic modelling (SDM) to build a DSS that allows local decision-makers to (1) determine the impact of current and potential policies on agroecosystem management and food security, and (2) design sustainable and resilient policies for the future. The use of participatory SDM offers several benefits, including the active involvement of the end recipients in the development of the model, greatly increasing its acceptability; the integration of physical (e.g., precipitation, crop yield) and social components in one model; adequacy for modelling long-term trends in response to particular policy decisions; and the inclusion of local stakeholder knowledge on system structure and trends through the participatory process. Preliminary results suggest that there is a set of common variables explaining the generally high levels of food insecurity in Guatemala (e.g., agricultural productivity), while others (e.g., land dynamics and access to water resources) are restricted to certain regions and have a relatively important weight in determining the success or failure of policies in these regions.

Developing a Software for Fuzzy Group Decision Support System: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baba, A. Fevzi; Kuscu, Dincer; Han, Kerem

2009-01-01

The complex nature and uncertain information in social problems required the emergence of fuzzy decision support systems in social areas. In this paper, we developed user-friendly Fuzzy Group Decision Support Systems (FGDSS) software. The software can be used for multi-purpose decision making processes. It helps the users determine the main and…

Supported Decision Making: A Synthesis of the Literature across Intellectual Disability, Mental Health, and Aging

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shogren, Karrie A.; Wehmeyer, Michael L.; Lassmann, Heather; Forber-Pratt, Anjali J.

2017-01-01

Supported decision making (SDM) has begun to receive significant attention as means to enable people to exercise autonomy and self-determination over decisions about their life. Practice frameworks that can be used to promote the provision of supports for decision making are needed. This paper integrates the literature across intellectual and…

Simple Statistics: - Summarized!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blai, Boris, Jr.

Statistics are an essential tool for making proper judgement decisions. It is concerned with probability distribution models, testing of hypotheses, significance tests and other means of determining the correctness of deductions and the most likely outcome of decisions. Measures of central tendency include the mean, median and mode. A second…

Ensemble stump classifiers and gene expression signatures in lung cancer.

PubMed

Frey, Lewis; Edgerton, Mary; Fisher, Douglas; Levy, Shawn

2007-01-01

Microarray data sets for cancer tumor tissue generally have very few samples, each sample having thousands of probes (i.e., continuous variables). The sparsity of samples makes it difficult for machine learning techniques to discover probes relevant to the classification of tumor tissue. By combining data from different platforms (i.e., data sources), data sparsity is reduced, but this typically requires normalizing data from the different platforms, which can be non-trivial. This paper proposes a variant on the idea of ensemble learners to circumvent the need for normalization. To facilitate comprehension we build ensembles of very simple classifiers known as decision stumps--decision trees of one test each. The Ensemble Stump Classifier (ESC) identifies an mRNA signature having three probes and high accuracy for distinguishing between adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the lung across four data sets. In terms of accuracy, ESC outperforms a decision tree classifier on all four data sets, outperforms ensemble decision trees on three data sets, and simple stump classifiers on two data sets.

Using Best Practices to Extract, Organize, and Reuse Embedded Decision Support Content Knowledge Rules from Mature Clinical Systems

PubMed Central

DesAutels, Spencer J.; Fox, Zachary E.; Giuse, Dario A.; Williams, Annette M.; Kou, Qing-hua; Weitkamp, Asli; Neal R, Patel; Bettinsoli Giuse, Nunzia

2016-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) knowledge, embedded over time in mature medical systems, presents an interesting and complex opportunity for information organization, maintenance, and reuse. To have a holistic view of all decision support requires an in-depth understanding of each clinical system as well as expert knowledge of the latest evidence. This approach to clinical decision support presents an opportunity to unify and externalize the knowledge within rules-based decision support. Driven by an institutional need to prioritize decision support content for migration to new clinical systems, the Center for Knowledge Management and Health Information Technology teams applied their unique expertise to extract content from individual systems, organize it through a single extensible schema, and present it for discovery and reuse through a newly created Clinical Support Knowledge Acquisition and Archival Tool (CS-KAAT). CS-KAAT can build and maintain the underlying knowledge infrastructure needed by clinical systems. PMID:28269846

A systematic review of online resources to support patient decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery.

PubMed

Fowler, G E; Baker, D M; Lee, M J; Brown, S R

2017-11-01

The internet is becoming an increasingly popular resource to support patient decision-making outside of the clinical encounter. The quality of online health information is variable and largely unregulated. The aim of this study was to assess the quality of online resources to support patient decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery. This systematic review was registered on the PROSPERO database (CRD42017058319). Searches were performed on Google and specialist decision aid repositories using a pre-defined search strategy. Sources were analysed according to three measures: (1) their readability using the Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease score, (2) DISCERN score and (3) International Patient Decision Aids Standards (IPDAS) minimum standards criteria score (IPDASi, v4.0). Overall, 95 sources were from Google and the specialist decision aid repositories. There were 53 duplicates removed, and 18 sources did not meet the pre-defined eligibility criteria, leaving 24 sources included in the full-text analysis. The mean Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease score was higher than recommended for patient education materials (48.8 ± 15.6, range 25.2-85.3). Overall quality of sources supporting patient decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery was poor (median DISCERN score 1/5 ± 1.18, range 1-5). No sources met minimum decision-making standards (median IPDASi score 5/12 ± 2.01, range 1-8). Currently, easily accessible online health information to support patient decision-making for rectal surgery is of poor quality, difficult to read and does not support shared decision-making. It is recommended that professional bodies and medical professionals seek to develop decision aids to support decision-making for full-thickness rectal prolapse surgery.

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

PubMed

Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

2011-06-01

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

Effect of electronic prescribing with formulary decision support on medication tier, copayments, and adherence

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Medication non-adherence is prevalent. We assessed the effect of electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) with formulary decision support on preferred formulary tier usage, copayment, and concomitant adherence. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 14,682 initial pharmaceutical claims for angiotensin receptor blocker and inhaled steroid medications among 14,410 patients of 2189 primary care physicians (PCPs) who were offered e-prescribing with formulary decision support, including 297 PCPs who adopted it. Formulary decision support was initially non-interruptive, such that formulary tier symbols were displayed adjacent to medication names. Subsequently, interruptive formulary decision support alerts also interrupted e-prescribing when preferred-tier alternatives were available. A difference in differences design was used to compare the pre-post differences in medication tier for each new prescription attributed to non-adopters, low user (<30% usage rate), and high user PCPs (>30% usage rate). Second, we modeled the effect of formulary tier on prescription copayment. Last, we modeled the effect of copayment on adherence (proportion of days covered) to each new medication. Results Compared with non-adopters, high users of e-prescribing were more likely to prescribe preferred-tier medications (vs. non-preferred tier) when both non-interruptive and interruptive formulary decision support were in place (OR 1.9 [95% CI 1.0-3.4], p = 0.04), but no more likely to prescribe preferred-tier when only non-interruptive formulary decision support was in place (p = 0.90). Preferred-tier claims had only slightly lower mean monthly copayments than non-preferred tier claims (angiotensin receptor blocker: $10.60 versus $11.81, inhaled steroid: $14.86 versus $16.42, p < 0.0001). Medication possession ratio was 8% lower for each $1.00 increase in monthly copayment to the one quarter power (p < 0.0001). However, we detected no significant direct association between formulary decision support usage and adherence. Conclusion Interruptive formulary decision support shifted prescribing toward preferred tiers, but these medications were only minimally less expensive in the studied patient population. In this context, formulary decision support did not significantly increase adherence. To impact cost-related non-adherence, formulary decision support will likely need to be paired with complementary drug benefit design. Formulary decision support should be studied further, with particular attention to its effect on adherence in the setting of different benefit designs. PMID:25167807

Effect of electronic prescribing with formulary decision support on medication tier, copayments, and adherence.

PubMed

Pevnick, Joshua M; Li, Ning; Asch, Steven M; Jackevicius, Cynthia A; Bell, Douglas S

2014-08-28

Medication non-adherence is prevalent. We assessed the effect of electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) with formulary decision support on preferred formulary tier usage, copayment, and concomitant adherence. We retrospectively analyzed 14,682 initial pharmaceutical claims for angiotensin receptor blocker and inhaled steroid medications among 14,410 patients of 2189 primary care physicians (PCPs) who were offered e-prescribing with formulary decision support, including 297 PCPs who adopted it. Formulary decision support was initially non-interruptive, such that formulary tier symbols were displayed adjacent to medication names. Subsequently, interruptive formulary decision support alerts also interrupted e-prescribing when preferred-tier alternatives were available. A difference in differences design was used to compare the pre-post differences in medication tier for each new prescription attributed to non-adopters, low user (<30% usage rate), and high user PCPs (>30% usage rate). Second, we modeled the effect of formulary tier on prescription copayment. Last, we modeled the effect of copayment on adherence (proportion of days covered) to each new medication. Compared with non-adopters, high users of e-prescribing were more likely to prescribe preferred-tier medications (vs. non-preferred tier) when both non-interruptive and interruptive formulary decision support were in place (OR 1.9 [95% CI 1.0-3.4], p = 0.04), but no more likely to prescribe preferred-tier when only non-interruptive formulary decision support was in place (p = 0.90). Preferred-tier claims had only slightly lower mean monthly copayments than non-preferred tier claims (angiotensin receptor blocker: $10.60 versus $11.81, inhaled steroid: $14.86 versus $16.42, p < 0.0001). Medication possession ratio was 8% lower for each $1.00 increase in monthly copayment to the one quarter power (p < 0.0001). However, we detected no significant direct association between formulary decision support usage and adherence. Interruptive formulary decision support shifted prescribing toward preferred tiers, but these medications were only minimally less expensive in the studied patient population. In this context, formulary decision support did not significantly increase adherence. To impact cost-related non-adherence, formulary decision support will likely need to be paired with complementary drug benefit design. Formulary decision support should be studied further, with particular attention to its effect on adherence in the setting of different benefit designs.

Advancing beyond the system: telemedicine nurses' clinical reasoning using a computerised decision support system for patients with COPD - an ethnographic study.

PubMed

Barken, Tina Lien; Thygesen, Elin; Söderhamn, Ulrika

2017-12-28

Telemedicine is changing traditional nursing care, and entails nurses performing advanced and complex care within a new clinical environment, and monitoring patients at a distance. Telemedicine practice requires complex disease management, advocating that the nurses' reasoning and decision-making processes are supported. Computerised decision support systems are being used increasingly to assist reasoning and decision-making in different situations. However, little research has focused on the clinical reasoning of nurses using a computerised decision support system in a telemedicine setting. Therefore, the objective of the study is to explore the process of telemedicine nurses' clinical reasoning when using a computerised decision support system for the management of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The factors influencing the reasoning and decision-making processes were investigated. In this ethnographic study, a combination of data collection methods, including participatory observations, the think-aloud technique, and a focus group interview was employed. Collected data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. When telemedicine nurses used a computerised decision support system for the management of patients with complex, unstable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, two categories emerged: "the process of telemedicine nurses' reasoning to assess health change" and "the influence of the telemedicine setting on nurses' reasoning and decision-making processes". An overall theme, termed "advancing beyond the system", represented the connection between the reasoning processes and the telemedicine work and setting, where being familiar with the patient functioned as a foundation for the nurses' clinical reasoning process. In the telemedicine setting, when supported by a computerised decision support system, nurses' reasoning was enabled by the continuous flow of digital clinical data, regular video-mediated contact and shared decision-making with the patient. These factors fostered an in-depth knowledge of the patients and acted as a foundation for the nurses' reasoning process. Nurses' reasoning frequently advanced beyond the computerised decision support system recommendations. Future studies are warranted to develop more accurate algorithms, increase system maturity, and improve the integration of the digital clinical information with clinical experiences, to support telemedicine nurses' reasoning process.

Decision Support Systems for Research and Management in Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, Luis F.

2004-01-01

Decision support systems have been implemented in many applications including strategic planning for battlefield scenarios, corporate decision making for business planning, production planning and control systems, and recommendation generators like those on Amazon.com(Registered TradeMark). Such tools are reviewed for developing a similar tool for NASA's ALS Program. DSS are considered concurrently with the development of the OPIS system, a database designed for chronicling of research and development in ALS. By utilizing the OPIS database, it is anticipated that decision support can be provided to increase the quality of decisions by ALS managers and researchers.

Accounting for reasonableness: Exploring the personal internal framework affecting decisions about cancer drug funding.

PubMed

Sinclair, Shane; Hagen, Neil A; Chambers, Carole; Manns, Braden; Simon, Anita; Browman, George P

2008-05-01

Drug decision-makers are involved in developing and implementing policy, procedure and processes to support health resource allocation regarding drug treatment formularies. A variety of approaches to decision-making, including formal decision-making frameworks, have been developed to support transparent and fair priority setting. Recently, a decision tool, 'The 6-STEPPPs Tool', was developed to assist in making decisions about new cancer drugs within the public health care system. We conducted a qualitative study, utilizing focus groups and participant observation, in order to investigate the internal frameworks that supported and challenged individual participants as they applied this decision tool within a multi-stakeholder decision process. We discovered that health care resource allocation engaged not only the minds of decision-makers but profoundly called on the often conflicting values of the heart. Objective decision-making frameworks for new drug therapies need to consider the subjective internal frameworks of decision-makers that affect decisions. Understanding the very human, internal turmoil experienced by individuals involved in health care resource allocation, sheds additional insight into how to account for reasonableness and how to better support difficult decisions through transparent, values-based resource allocation policy, procedures and processes.

An exploration of decision aid effectiveness: the impact of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on a health-related decision.

PubMed

Davis, Esther L; McCaffery, Kirsten; Mullan, Barbara; Juraskova, Ilona

2015-12-01

Decision aids (DAs) are non-directive communication tools that help patients make value-consistent health-care decisions. However, most DAs have been developed without an explicit theoretical framework, resulting in a lack of understanding of how DAs achieve outcomes. To investigate the effect of promoting affective vs. deliberative processing on DA effectiveness based on dual-process theory. One hundred and forty-eight female university students participated in a randomized controlled experiment with three conditions: emotion-focused, information-focused and control. Preference-value consistency, knowledge, decisional conflict and satisfaction were compared across the conditions using planned contrast analyses. The intervention comprised two different DAs and instructional manipulations. The emotion-focused condition received a modified DA with affective content and instructions to induce an affective reaction. The information-focused and control conditions received the same DA without the affective content. The information-focused condition received additional instructions to induce deliberative processing. Controlling for the experiment-wise error rate at P < 0.017, the emotion-focused and information-focused conditions had significantly higher decisional satisfaction than the control condition (P < 0.001). The emotion-focused condition did not demonstrate preference-value consistency. There were no significant differences for decisional conflict and knowledge. Results suggest that the promotion of affective processing may hinder value-consistent decision making, while deliberative processing may enhance decisional satisfaction. This investigation of the effect of affective and deliberative processes in DA-supported decision making has implications for the design and use of DAs. DA effectiveness may be enhanced by incorporating a simple instruction to focus on the details of the information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decision Support Systems and the Conflict Model of Decision Making: A Stimulus for New Computer-Assisted Careers Guidance Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ballantine, R. Malcolm

Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are computer-based decision aids to use when making decisions which are partially amenable to rational decision-making procedures but contain elements where intuitive judgment is an essential component. In such situations, DSSs are used to improve the quality of decision-making. The DSS approach is based on Simon's…

Collaborative Response and Recovery from a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Animal Health Emergency: Supporting Decision Making in a Complex Environment with Multiple Stakeholders

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

RESPONSE AND RECOVERY FROM A FOOT-AND- MOUTH DISEASE ANIMAL HEALTH EMERGENCY: SUPPORTING DECISION MAKING IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH MULTIPLE...Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE COLLABORATIVE RESPONSE AND RECOVERY FROM A FOOT-AND- MOUTH DISEASE ANIMAL HEALTH EMERGENCY: SUPPORTING DECISION MAKING...200 words ) This thesis recommends ways to support decision makers who must operate within the multi-stakeholder complex situation of response and

AppBuilder for DSSTools; an application development environment for developing decision support systems in Prolog

Treesearch

Geneho Kim; Donald Nute; H. Michael Rauscher; David L. Loftis

2000-01-01

A programming environment for developing complex decision support systems (DSSs) should support rapid prototyping and modular design, feature a flexible knowledge representation scheme and sound inference mechanisms, provide project management, and be domain independent. We have previously developed DSSTools (Decision Support System Tools), a reusable, domain-...

Mining Peripheral Arterial Disease Cases from Narrative Clinical Notes Using Natural Language Processing

PubMed Central

Afzal, Naveed; Sohn, Sunghwan; Abram, Sara; Scott, Christopher G.; Chaudhry, Rajeev; Liu, Hongfang; Kullo, Iftikhar J.; Arruda-Olson, Adelaide M.

2016-01-01

Objective Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is highly prevalent and affects millions of individuals worldwide. We developed a natural language processing (NLP) system for automated ascertainment of PAD cases from clinical narrative notes and compared the performance of the NLP algorithm to billing code algorithms, using ankle-brachial index (ABI) test results as the gold standard. Methods We compared the performance of the NLP algorithm to 1) results of gold standard ABI; 2) previously validated algorithms based on relevant ICD-9 diagnostic codes (simple model) and 3) a combination of ICD-9 codes with procedural codes (full model). A dataset of 1,569 PAD patients and controls was randomly divided into training (n= 935) and testing (n= 634) subsets. Results We iteratively refined the NLP algorithm in the training set including narrative note sections, note types and service types, to maximize its accuracy. In the testing dataset, when compared with both simple and full models, the NLP algorithm had better accuracy (NLP: 91.8%, full model: 81.8%, simple model: 83%, P<.001), PPV (NLP: 92.9%, full model: 74.3%, simple model: 79.9%, P<.001), and specificity (NLP: 92.5%, full model: 64.2%, simple model: 75.9%, P<.001). Conclusions A knowledge-driven NLP algorithm for automatic ascertainment of PAD cases from clinical notes had greater accuracy than billing code algorithms. Our findings highlight the potential of NLP tools for rapid and efficient ascertainment of PAD cases from electronic health records to facilitate clinical investigation and eventually improve care by clinical decision support. PMID:28189359

Changing hospitals, choosing chemotherapy and deciding you've made the right choice: Understanding the role of online support groups in different health decision-making activities.

PubMed

Sillence, Elizabeth; Bussey, Lauren

2017-05-01

To investigate the ways in which people use online support groups (OSGs) in relation to their health decision-making and to identify the key features of the resource that support those activities. Eighteen participants who used OSGs for a range of health conditions participated in qualitative study in which they were interviewed about their experiences of using OSGs in relation to decision-making. Exploration of their experiences was supported by discussion of illustrative quotes. Across the health conditions OSGs supported two main decision-making activities: (i) prompting decision making and (ii) evaluating and confirming decisions already made. Depending on the activity, participants valued information about the process, the experience and the outcome of patient narratives. The importance of forum interactivity was highlighted in relation to advice-seeking and the selection of relevant personal experiences. People use OSGs in different ways to support their health related decision-making valuing the different content types of the narratives and the interactivity provided by the resource. Engaging with OSGs helps people in a number of different ways in relation to decision-making. However, it only forms one part of people's decision-making strategies and appropriate resources should be signposted where possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Game Theory in the Social Studies Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesperman, Dean Patrick; Clark, Chris H.

2016-01-01

This article explores using game theory in social studies classrooms as a heuristic to aid students in understanding strategic decision making. The authors provide examples of several simple games teachers can use. Next, we address how to help students design their own simple (2 × 2) games.

The Design and Use of Decision Support Systems by Academic Departments. AIR 1987 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, F. Craig

The design and use of a departmental decision support system at Florida State University are described from the perspective of a department head. The decisions selected for study are ones of adequacy, equitability, quality, efficiency, and consistency. The complexity of the decision is related to the complexity of the support system. The major…

Decision Performance Using Spatial Decision Support Systems: A Geospatial Reasoning Ability Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erskine, Michael A.

2013-01-01

As many consumer and business decision makers are utilizing Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), a thorough understanding of how such decisions are made is crucial for the information systems domain. This dissertation presents six chapters encompassing a comprehensive analysis of the impact of geospatial reasoning ability on…

Reinforcement learning signals in the human striatum distinguish learners from nonlearners during reward-based decision making.

PubMed

Schönberg, Tom; Daw, Nathaniel D; Joel, Daphna; O'Doherty, John P

2007-11-21

The computational framework of reinforcement learning has been used to forward our understanding of the neural mechanisms underlying reward learning and decision-making behavior. It is known that humans vary widely in their performance in decision-making tasks. Here, we used a simple four-armed bandit task in which subjects are almost evenly split into two groups on the basis of their performance: those who do learn to favor choice of the optimal action and those who do not. Using models of reinforcement learning we sought to determine the neural basis of these intrinsic differences in performance by scanning both groups with functional magnetic resonance imaging. We scanned 29 subjects while they performed the reward-based decision-making task. Our results suggest that these two groups differ markedly in the degree to which reinforcement learning signals in the striatum are engaged during task performance. While the learners showed robust prediction error signals in both the ventral and dorsal striatum during learning, the nonlearner group showed a marked absence of such signals. Moreover, the magnitude of prediction error signals in a region of dorsal striatum correlated significantly with a measure of behavioral performance across all subjects. These findings support a crucial role of prediction error signals, likely originating from dopaminergic midbrain neurons, in enabling learning of action selection preferences on the basis of obtained rewards. Thus, spontaneously observed individual differences in decision making performance demonstrate the suggested dependence of this type of learning on the functional integrity of the dopaminergic striatal system in humans.

A Taxonomy of Network Centric Warfare Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

mound structure emerges as a result of the termites following very simple rules, and exchanging very simple pheromone signals (Solé & Goodwin 2000...only fairly simple decisions.” For example, in far northern Australia, “magnetic termites ” build large termite mounds which are oriented north-south...and contain a complex ventilation system which controls temperature, humidity, and oxygen levels. But termite brains are too small to store a plan

Mapping Network Centric Operational Architectures to C2 and Software Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Instead, the termite mound structure emerges as a result of the termites following very simple rules, and exchanging very simple pheromone signals...Each worker need make only fairly simple decisions.” For example, in far northern Australia, “magnetic termites ” build large termite mounds which are...oriented north-south and contain a complex ventilation system which controls temperature, humidity, and oxygen levels. But termite brains are too

Applying Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Simple Scoring as an Evidence-based HTA Methodology for Evaluating Off-Patent Pharmaceuticals (OPPs) in Emerging Markets.

PubMed

Brixner, Diana; Maniadakis, Nikos; Kaló, Zoltán; Hu, Shanlian; Shen, Jie; Wijaya, Kalman

2017-09-01

Off-patent pharmaceuticals (OPPs) represent more than 60% of the pharmaceutical market in many emerging countries, where they are frequently evaluated primarily on cost rather than with health technology assessment. OPPs are assumed to be identical to the originators. Branded and unbranded generic versions can, however, vary from the originator in active pharmaceutical ingredients, dosage, consistency formulation, excipients, manufacturing processes, and distribution, for example. These variables can alter the efficacy and safety of the product, negatively impacting both the anticipated cost savings and the population's health. In addition, many health care systems lack the resources or expertise to evaluate such products, and current assessment methods can be complex and difficult to adapt to a health system's needs. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) simple scoring is an evidence-based health technology assessment methodology for evaluating OPPs, especially in emerging countries in which resources are limited but decision makers still must balance affordability with factors such as drug safety, level interchangeability, manufacturing site and active pharmaceutical ingredient quality, supply track record, and real-life outcomes. MCDA simple scoring can be applied to pharmaceutical pricing, reimbursement, formulary listing, and drug procurement. In November 2015, a workshop was held at the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Annual Meeting in Milan to refine and prioritize criteria that can be used in MCDA simple scoring for OPPs, resulting in an example MCDA process and 22 prioritized criteria that health care systems in emerging countries can easily adapt to their own decision-making processes. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From guideline modeling to guideline execution: defining guideline-based decision-support services.

PubMed Central

Tu, S. W.; Musen, M. A.

2000-01-01

We describe our task-based approach to defining the guideline-based decision-support services that the EON system provides. We categorize uses of guidelines in patient-specific decision support into a set of generic tasks--making of decisions, specification of work to be performed, interpretation of data, setting of goals, and issuance of alert and reminders--that can be solved using various techniques. Our model includes constructs required for representing the knowledge used by these techniques. These constructs form a toolkit from which developers can select modeling solutions for guideline task. Based on the tasks and the guideline model, we define a guideline-execution architecture and a model of interactions between a decision-support server and clients that invoke services provided by the server. These services use generic interfaces derived from guideline tasks and their associated modeling constructs. We describe two implementations of these decision-support services and discuss how this work can be generalized. We argue that a well-defined specification of guideline-based decision-support services will facilitate sharing of tools that implement computable clinical guidelines. PMID:11080007

Tools to support GHG emissions reduction : a regional effort, part 1 - carbon footprint estimation and decision support.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Tools are proposed for carbon footprint estimation of transportation construction projects and decision support : for construction firms that must make equipment choice and usage decisions that affect profits, project duration : and greenhouse gas em...

Decision Support Framework (DSF) (Formerly Decision Support Platform)

EPA Science Inventory

The Science Advisory Board (SAB) provided several comments on the draft Ecosystem Services Research Program's (ESRP's) Multi-Year Plan (MYP). This presentation provides a response to comments related to the decision support framework (DSF) part of Long-Term Goal 1. The comments...

The Feasibility of a Decision Support System for the Determination of Source Selection Evaluation Criteria

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-01

is not only difficult and time consuming , but also crucial to the success of the project, the question is whether a decision support system designed...KtI I - uAujvhIMtf IENE In THE FEASIBILITY OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR THE DETERMINATION OF SOURCE SELECTION EVALUATION ’CRITERIA THESIS .2...INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio DZM=0N STATEMENT A ,’r !’ILMILSHIM S /8 4 THE FEASIBILITY OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR

The paradoxical effect of long instructions on negative affect and performance: When, for whom and why do they backfire?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goemaere, Sophie; Beyers, Wim; De Muynck, Gert-Jan; Vansteenkiste, Maarten

2018-06-01

For reasons of bureaucracy and safety, astronauts on the International Space Station are provided with excruciatingly detailed instructions and a lack of decision-making power, even for simple routine tasks. Besides being time-consuming, many astronauts report feelings of demotivation, irritation, and even defiance when confronted with this working method. Anecdotic evidence suggests that this method leads to situations where astronauts read instructions diagonally or avoid checking in with mission support, thereby ironically increasing the risk of error making. There is a need to consider under which circumstances, for whom, and why the provision of long instructions could be detrimental for well-being and performance. An experimental study with LEGO assembly tasks examined whether length of instructions (i.e. short versus long) and task complexity (simple vs. complex) impact negative affect, motivational experiences and performance of participants (N = 113, Mage = 18.75 ± 2.46 years). Long instructions for simple tasks provoked greater feelings of irritation, diminished the perceived value of instructions, and negatively influenced productivity and accuracy. The negative effect of long instructions on irritation was explained via decreased perceived value. Additionally, the effect of length of instructions on irritation differed for participants high versus those low in need for achievement.

Lifelong Transfer Learning for Heterogeneous Teams of Agents in Sequential Decision Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

making (SDM) tasks in dynamic environments with simulated and physical robots . 15. SUBJECT TERMS Sequential decision making, lifelong learning, transfer...sequential decision-making (SDM) tasks in dynamic environments with both simple benchmark tasks and more complex aerial and ground robot tasks. Our work...and ground robots in the presence of disturbances: We applied our methods to the problem of learning controllers for robots with novel disturbances in

A simple formulation and solution to the replacement problem: a practical tool to assess the economic cow value, the value of a new pregnancy, and the cost of a pregnancy loss.

PubMed

Cabrera, V E

2012-08-01

This study contributes to the research literature by providing a new formulation for the cow replacement problem, and it also contributes to the Extension deliverables by providing a user-friendly decision support system tool that would more likely be adopted and applied for practical decision making. The cow value, its related values of a new pregnancy and a pregnancy loss, and their associated replacement policies determine profitability in dairy farming. One objective of this study was to present a simple, interactive, dynamic, and robust formulation of the cow value and the replacement problem, including expectancy of the future production of the cow and the genetic gain of the replacement. The proven hypothesis of this study was that all the above requirements could be achieved by using a Markov chain algorithm. The Markov chain model allowed (1) calculation of a forward expected value of a studied cow and its replacement; (2) use of a single model (the Markov chain) to calculate both the replacement policies and the herd statistics; (3) use of a predefined, preestablished farm reproductive replacement policy; (4) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of the expected future performance of a cow; (5) inclusion of a farmer's assessment of genetic gain with a replacement; and (6) use of a simple spreadsheet or an online system to implement the decision support system. Results clearly demonstrated that the decision policies found with the Markov chain model were consistent with more complex dynamic programming models. The final user-friendly decision support tool is available at http://dairymgt.info/ → Tools → The Economic Value of a Dairy Cow. This tool calculates the cow value instantaneously and is highly interactive, dynamic, and robust. When a Wisconsin dairy farm was studied using the model, the solution policy called for replacing nonpregnant cows 11 mo after calving or months in milk (MIM) if in the first lactation and 9 MIM if in later lactations. The cow value for an average second-lactation cow was as follows: (1) when nonpregnant, (a) $897 in MIM = 1 and (b) $68 in MIM = 8; (2) when the cow just became pregnant,(a) $889 for a pregnancy in MIM = 3 and (b) $298 for a pregnancy in MIM = 8; and (3) the value of a pregnancy loss when a cow became pregnant in MIM = 5 was (a) $221 when the loss was in the first month of pregnancy and (b) $897 when the loss was in the ninth month of pregnancy. The cow value indicated pregnant cows should be kept. The expected future production of a cow with respect to a similar average cow was an important determinant in the cow replacement decision. The expected production in the rest of the lactation was more important for nonpregnant cows, and the expected production in successive lactations was more important for pregnant cows. A 120% expected milk production for a cow with MIM = 16 and 6 mo pregnant in the present lactation or in successive lactations determined between 1.52 and 6.48 times the cow value, respectively, of an average production cow. The cow value decreased by $211 for every 1 percentage point of expected genetic gain of the replacement. A break-even analysis of the cow value with respect to expected milk production of an average second-parity cow indicated that (1) nonpregnant cows in MIM = 1 and 8 could still remain in the herd if they produced at least 84 and 98% in the present lactation or if they produced at least 78 and 97% in future lactations, respectively; and (2) cows becoming pregnant in MIM = 5 would require at least 64% of milk production in the rest of the lactation or 93% in successive lactations to remain in the herd. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of a Knowledge-Based Decision-Support System in the Tactical Environment.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

002-04-6411S1CURITY CL All PICATION OF 1,416 PAGE (00HIR Onto ea0aOW .L10 *GU9WVC 4bGSI.CAYON S. Voss 10466lVka t... OftesoE ’ making decisons . The...noe..aaw Ad tdlalttt’ IV 680011 MMib) Artificial Intelligence; Decision-Support Systems; Tactical Decision- making ; Knowledge-based Decision-support...tactical information to assist tactical commanders in making decisions. The system, TAC*, for "Tactical Adaptable Consultant," incorporates a database

Web-services-based spatial decision support system to facilitate nuclear waste siting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, L. Xinglai; Sheng, Grant

2006-10-01

The availability of spatial web services enables data sharing among managers, decision and policy makers and other stakeholders in much simpler ways than before and subsequently has created completely new opportunities in the process of spatial decision making. Though generally designed for a certain problem domain, web-services-based spatial decision support systems (WSDSS) can provide a flexible problem-solving environment to explore the decision problem, understand and refine problem definition, and generate and evaluate multiple alternatives for decision. This paper presents a new framework for the development of a web-services-based spatial decision support system. The WSDSS is comprised of distributed web services that either have their own functions or provide different geospatial data and may reside in different computers and locations. WSDSS includes six key components, namely: database management system, catalog, analysis functions and models, GIS viewers and editors, report generators, and graphical user interfaces. In this study, the architecture of a web-services-based spatial decision support system to facilitate nuclear waste siting is described as an example. The theoretical, conceptual and methodological challenges and issues associated with developing web services-based spatial decision support system are described.

Role of Advance Care Planning in Proxy Decision Making Among Individuals With Dementia and Their Family Caregivers.

PubMed

Kwak, Jung; De Larwelle, Jessica A; Valuch, Katharine O'Connell; Kesler, Toni

2016-01-01

Health care proxies make important end-of-life decisions for individuals with dementia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to examine the role of advance care planning in proxy decision making for 141 individuals with cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease, or other types of dementia. Proxies who did not know the preferences of individuals with dementia for life support treatments reported greater understanding of their values. Proxies of individuals with dementia who did not want life support treatments anticipated receiving less support and were more uncertain in decision making. The greater knowledge proxies had about dementia trajectory, family support, and trust of physicians, the more informed, clearer, and less uncertain they were in decision making. In addition to advance care planning, multiple factors influence proxy decision making, which should be considered in developing interventions and future research to support informed decision making for individuals with dementia and their families. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Integrating observations and models to help understanding how flooding impacts upon catchments as a basis for decision making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

2014-05-01

This paper explains how flood management projects might be better informed in the future by using more observations and a novel impact modelling tool in a simple transparent framework. The understanding of how local scale impacts propagate downstream to impact on the downstream hydrograph is difficult to determine using traditional rainfall runoff and hydraulic routing methods. The traditional approach to modelling essentially comprises selecting a fixed model structure and then calibrating to an observational hydrograph, which make those model predictions highly uncertain. Here, a novel approach is used in which the structure of the runoff generation is not specified a priori and incorporates expert knowledge. Rather than using externally for calibration, the observed outlet hydrographs are used directly within the model. Essentially the approach involves the disaggregation of the outlet hydrograph by making assumptions about the spatial distribution of runoff generated. The channel network is parameterised through a comparison of the timing of observed hydrographs at a number of nested locations within the catchment. The user is then encouraged to use their expert knowledge to define how runoff is generated locally and what the likely impact of any local mitigation is. Therefore the user can specify any hydrological model or flow estimation method that captures their expertise. Equally, the user is encouraged to install as many instruments as they can afford to cover the catchment network. A Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is used to encapsulate knowledge of the runoff dynamics gained from simulation in a simple visual way and hence to convey the likely impacts that arise from a given flood management scenario. This tool has been designed primarily to inform and educate landowners, catchment managers and decision makers. The DSM outlines scenarios that are likely to increase or decrease runoff rates and allows the user to contemplate the implications and uncertainty of their decisions. The tool can also be used to map the likely changes in flood peak due to land use management options. An example case study will be shown for a 35km2 catchment in Northern England which is prone to flooding. The method encourages end users to instrument and quantify their own catchment network and to make informed, evidence based decisions appropriate to their own flooding problems.

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

To t-Test or Not to t-Test? A p-Values-Based Point of View in the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Framework.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Yu, Jihnhee

2018-04-13

A common statistical doctrine supported by many introductory courses and textbooks is that t-test type procedures based on normally distributed data points are anticipated to provide a standard in decision-making. In order to motivate scholars to examine this convention, we introduce a simple approach based on graphical tools of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a well-established biostatistical methodology. In this context, we propose employing a p-values-based method, taking into account the stochastic nature of p-values. We focus on the modern statistical literature to address the expected p-value (EPV) as a measure of the performance of decision-making rules. During the course of our study, we extend the EPV concept to be considered in terms of the ROC curve technique. This provides expressive evaluations and visualizations of a wide spectrum of testing mechanisms' properties. We show that the conventional power characterization of tests is a partial aspect of the presented EPV/ROC technique. We desire that this explanation of the EPV/ROC approach convinces researchers of the usefulness of the EPV/ROC approach for depicting different characteristics of decision-making procedures, in light of the growing interest regarding correct p-values-based applications.

The Contribution of a Decision Support System to Educational Decision-Making Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein, Joseph; Ronen, Herman

2003-01-01

In the light of reports of bias, the present study investigated the hypothesis that administrative educational decisions assisted by Decision Support Systems (DSS) are characterized by different pedagogical and organizational orientation than decisions made without computer assistance. One hundred and ten high school teachers were asked to suggest…

Decomposing Bias in Different Types of Simple Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Corey N.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…

Virtual Characters: Visual Realism Affects Response Time and Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sibuma, Bernadette

2012-01-01

This study integrates agent research with a neurocognitive technique to study how character faces affect cognitive processing. The N170 event-related potential (ERP) was used to study face processing during simple decision-making tasks. Twenty-five adults responded to facial expressions (fear/neutral) presented in three designs…

Deficits in Thematic Integration Processes in Broca's and Wernicke's Aphasia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nakano, Hiroko; Blumstein, Sheila E.

2004-01-01

This study investigated how normal subjects and Broca's and Wernicke's aphasics integrate thematic information incrementally using syntax, lexical-semantics, and pragmatics in a simple active declarative sentence. Three priming experiments were conducted using an auditory lexical decision task in which subjects made a lexical decision on a…

The Bilingual Advertising Decision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grin, Francois

1994-01-01

Examines the relationship between linguistic plurality and the rationale of advertising decisions. The article presents a simple model of sales to different language groups as a function of the level of advertising in each language, language attitudes, incomes, and an advertising response function. The model is intended as a benchmark, and several…

Nudging Students' Creative Problem-Solving Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffin, Dana

2011-01-01

People often make choices that go against their own best interests. In the controversial bestseller "Nudge," Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein argue that people can benefit from simple "nudges" to improve their decision-making. In an upper-level undergraduate course on political decision-making, I created a series of assignments around "Nudge." In…

Strategies to facilitate shared decision-making about pediatric oncology clinical trial enrollment: A systematic review.

PubMed

Robertson, Eden G; Wakefield, Claire E; Signorelli, Christina; Cohn, Richard J; Patenaude, Andrea; Foster, Claire; Pettit, Tristan; Fardell, Joanna E

2018-07-01

We conducted a systematic review to identify the strategies that have been recommended in the literature to facilitate shared decision-making regarding enrolment in pediatric oncology clinical trials. We searched seven databases for peer-reviewed literature, published 1990-2017. Of 924 articles identified, 17 studies were eligible for the review. We assessed study quality using the 'Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool'. We coded the results and discussions of papers line-by-line using nVivo software. We categorized strategies thematically. Five main themes emerged: 1) decision-making as a process, 2) individuality of the process; 3) information provision, 4) the role of communication, or 5) decision and psychosocial support. Families should have adequate time to make a decision. HCPs should elicit parents' and patients' preferences for level of information and decision involvement. Information should be clear and provided in multiple modalities. Articles also recommended providing training for healthcare professionals and access to psychosocial support for families. High quality, individually-tailored information, open communication and psychosocial support appear vital in supporting decision-making regarding enrollment in clinical trials. These data will usefully inform future decision-making interventions/tools to support families making clinical trial decisions. A solid evidence-base for effective strategies which facilitate shared decision-making is needed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction to Decision Support Systems for Risk Based Management of Contaminated Sites

EPA Science Inventory

A book on Decision Support Systems for Risk-based Management of contaminated sites is appealing for two reasons. First, it addresses the problem of contaminated sites, which has worldwide importance. Second, it presents Decision Support Systems (DSSs), which are powerful comput...

Decision support systems in water and wastewater treatment process selection and design: a review.

PubMed

Hamouda, M A; Anderson, W B; Huck, P M

2009-01-01

The continuously changing drivers of the water treatment industry, embodied by rigorous environmental and health regulations and the challenge of emerging contaminants, necessitates the development of decision support systems for the selection of appropriate treatment trains. This paper explores a systematic approach to developing decision support systems, which includes the analysis of the treatment problem(s), knowledge acquisition and representation, and the identification and evaluation of criteria controlling the selection of optimal treatment systems. The objective of this article is to review approaches and methods used in decision support systems developed to aid in the selection, sequencing of unit processes and design of drinking water, domestic wastewater, and industrial wastewater treatment systems. Not surprisingly, technical considerations were found to dominate the logic of the developed systems. Most of the existing decision-support tools employ heuristic knowledge. It has been determined that there is a need to develop integrated decision support systems that are generic, usable and consider a system analysis approach.

Big-Data Based Decision-Support Systems to Improve Clinicians' Cognition.

PubMed

Roosan, Don; Samore, Matthew; Jones, Makoto; Livnat, Yarden; Clutter, Justin

2016-01-01

Complex clinical decision-making could be facilitated by using population health data to inform clinicians. In two previous studies, we interviewed 16 infectious disease experts to understand complex clinical reasoning. For this study, we focused on answers from the experts on how clinical reasoning can be supported by population-based Big-Data. We found cognitive strategies such as trajectory tracking, perspective taking, and metacognition has the potential to improve clinicians' cognition to deal with complex problems. These cognitive strategies could be supported by population health data, and all have important implications for the design of Big-Data based decision-support tools that could be embedded in electronic health records. Our findings provide directions for task allocation and design of decision-support applications for health care industry development of Big data based decision-support systems.

A decision-supported outpatient practice system.

PubMed Central

Barrows, R. C.; Allen, B. A.; Smith, K. C.; Arni, V. V.; Sherman, E.

1996-01-01

We describe a Decision-supported Outpatient Practice (DOP) system developed and now in use at the Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center. DOP is an automated ambulatory medical record system that integrates in-patient and ambulatory care data, and incorporates active and passive decision support mechanisms with a view towards improving the quality of primary care. Active decision support occurs in the form of event-driven reminders created within a remote clinical information system with its central data repository and decision support system (DSS). Novel features of DOP include patient specific health maintenance task lists calculated by the remote DSS. uses of a semantically structured controlled medical vocabulary to support clinical results review and provider data entry, and exploitation of an underlying ambulatory data model that provides for an explicit record of evolution of insight regarding patient management. Benefits, challenges, and plans are discussed. PMID:8947774

Big-Data Based Decision-Support Systems to Improve Clinicians’ Cognition

PubMed Central

Roosan, Don; Samore, Matthew; Jones, Makoto; Livnat, Yarden; Clutter, Justin

2016-01-01

Complex clinical decision-making could be facilitated by using population health data to inform clinicians. In two previous studies, we interviewed 16 infectious disease experts to understand complex clinical reasoning. For this study, we focused on answers from the experts on how clinical reasoning can be supported by population-based Big-Data. We found cognitive strategies such as trajectory tracking, perspective taking, and metacognition has the potential to improve clinicians’ cognition to deal with complex problems. These cognitive strategies could be supported by population health data, and all have important implications for the design of Big-Data based decision-support tools that could be embedded in electronic health records. Our findings provide directions for task allocation and design of decision-support applications for health care industry development of Big data based decision-support systems. PMID:27990498

Uncertainty indication in soil function maps - transparent and easy-to-use information to support sustainable use of soil resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greiner, Lucie; Nussbaum, Madlene; Papritz, Andreas; Zimmermann, Stephan; Gubler, Andreas; Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Keller, Armin

2018-05-01

Spatial information on soil function fulfillment (SFF) is increasingly being used to inform decision-making in spatial planning programs to support sustainable use of soil resources. Soil function maps visualize soils abilities to fulfill their functions, e.g., regulating water and nutrient flows, providing habitats, and supporting biomass production based on soil properties. Such information must be reliable for informed and transparent decision-making in spatial planning programs. In this study, we add to the transparency of soil function maps by (1) indicating uncertainties arising from the prediction of soil properties generated by digital soil mapping (DSM) that are used for soil function assessment (SFA) and (2) showing the response of different SFA methods to the propagation of uncertainties through the assessment. For a study area of 170 km2 in the Swiss Plateau, we map 10 static soil sub-functions for agricultural soils for a spatial resolution of 20 × 20 m together with their uncertainties. Mapping the 10 soil sub-functions using simple ordinal assessment scales reveals pronounced spatial patterns with a high variability of SFF scores across the region, linked to the inherent properties of the soils and terrain attributes and climate conditions. Uncertainties in soil properties propagated through SFA methods generally lead to substantial uncertainty in the mapped soil sub-functions. We propose two types of uncertainty maps that can be readily understood by stakeholders. Cumulative distribution functions of SFF scores indicate that SFA methods respond differently to the propagated uncertainty of soil properties. Even where methods are comparable on the level of complexity and assessment scale, their comparability in view of uncertainty propagation might be different. We conclude that comparable uncertainty indications in soil function maps are relevant to enable informed and transparent decisions on the sustainable use of soil resources.

Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

2014-11-01

We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n ≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E . We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

The anatomy of decision support during inpatient care provider order entry (CPOE): Empirical observations from a decade of CPOE experience at Vanderbilt

PubMed Central

Miller, Randolph A.; Waitman, Lemuel R.; Chen, Sutin; Rosenbloom, S. Trent

2006-01-01

The authors describe a pragmatic approach to the introduction of clinical decision support at the point of care, based on a decade of experience in developing and evolving Vanderbilt’s inpatient “WizOrder” care provider order entry (CPOE) system. The inpatient care setting provides a unique opportunity to interject CPOE-based decision support features that restructure clinical workflows, deliver focused relevant educational materials, and influence how care is delivered to patients. From their empirical observations, the authors have developed a generic model for decision support within inpatient CPOE systems. They believe that the model’s utility extends beyond Vanderbilt, because it is based on characteristics of end-user workflows and on decision support considerations that are common to a variety of inpatient settings and CPOE systems. The specific approach to implementing a given clinical decision support feature within a CPOE system should involve evaluation along three axes: what type of intervention to create (for which the authors describe 4 general categories); when to introduce the intervention into the user’s workflow (for which the authors present 7 categories), and how disruptive, during use of the system, the intervention might be to end-users’ workflows (for which the authors describe 6 categories). Framing decision support in this manner may help both developers and clinical end-users plan future alterations to their systems when needs for new decision support features arise. PMID:16290243

Home care decision support using an Arden engine--merging smart home and vital signs data.

PubMed

Marschollek, Michael; Bott, Oliver J; Wolf, Klaus-H; Gietzelt, Matthias; Plischke, Maik; Madiesh, Moaaz; Song, Bianying; Haux, Reinhold

2009-01-01

The demographic change with a rising proportion of very old people and diminishing resources leads to an intensification of the use of telemedicine and home care concepts. To provide individualized decision support, data from different sources, e.g. vital signs sensors and home environmental sensors, need to be combined and analyzed together. Furthermore, a standardized decision support approach is necessary. The aim of our research work is to present a laboratory prototype home care architecture that integrates data from different sources and uses a decision support system based on the HL7 standard Arden Syntax for Medical Logical Modules. Data from environmental sensors connected to a home bus system are stored in a data base along with data from wireless medical sensors. All data are analyzed using an Arden engine with the medical knowledge represented in Medical Logic Modules. Multi-modal data from four different sensors in the home environment are stored in a single data base and are analyzed using an HL7 standard conformant decision support system. Individualized home care decision support must be based on all data available, including context data from smart home systems and medical data from electronic health records. Our prototype implementation shows the feasibility of using an Arden engine for decision support in a home setting. Our future work will include the utilization of medical background knowledge for individualized decision support, as there is no one-size-fits-all knowledge base in medicine.

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic review of the empirical investigation of resources to support decision-making regarding BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic testing in women with breast cancer.

PubMed

Grimmett, Chloe; Pickett, Karen; Shepherd, Jonathan; Welch, Karen; Recio-Saucedo, Alejandra; Streit, Elke; Seers, Helen; Armstrong, Anne; Cutress, Ramsey I; Evans, D Gareth; Copson, Ellen; Meiser, Bettina; Eccles, Diana; Foster, Claire

2018-05-01

Identify existing resources developed and/or evaluated empirically in the published literature designed to support women with breast cancer making decisions regarding genetic testing for BRCA1/2 mutations. Systematic review of seven electronic databases. Studies were included if they described or evaluated resources that were designed to support women with breast cancer in making a decision to have genetic counselling or testing for familial breast cancer. Outcome and process evaluations, using any type of study design, as well as articles reporting the development of decision aids, were eligible for inclusion. Total of 9 publications, describing 6 resources were identified. Resources were effective at increasing knowledge or understanding of hereditary breast cancer. Satisfaction with resources was high. There was no evidence that any resource increased distress, worry or decisional conflict. Few resources included active functionalities for example, values-based exercises, to support decision-making. Tailored resources supporting decision-making may be helpful and valued by patients and increase knowledge of hereditary breast cancer, without causing additional distress. Clinicians should provide supportive written information to patients where it is available. However, there is a need for robustly developed decision tools to support decision-making around genetic testing in women with breast cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr; Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence; Aravossis, Konstantinos

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decisionmore » support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.« less

Surface transportation weather decision support requirements : advanced-integrated decision support using weather information for surface transportation decisions makers : draft (truncated*) version 1.0

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-19

This report gives an overview of the National Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure Initiative (NITI). NITI refers to the integrated electronics, communications, and hardware and software elements that are available to support Intelligent Transpo...

E-Estuary: Developing a Decision-support System for Coastal Management in the Conterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Ready access to geographic information is needed to support management decisions for estuaries at local, state, regional, and national scales. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) is developing e-Estuary, a decision-support system for coastal management. E...

New approaches for real time decision support systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hair, D. Charles; Pickslay, Kent

1994-01-01

NCCOSC RDT&E Division (NRaD) is conducting research into ways of improving decision support systems (DSS) that are used in tactical Navy decision making situations. The research has focused on the incorporation of findings about naturalistic decision-making processes into the design of the DSS. As part of that research, two computer tools were developed that model the two primary naturalistic decision-making strategies used by Navy experts in tactical settings. Current work is exploring how best to incorporate the information produced by those tools into an existing simulation of current Navy decision support systems. This work has implications for any applications involving the need to make decisions under time constraints, based on incomplete or ambiguous data.

Lessons learned from implementing service-oriented clinical decision support at four sites: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Wright, Adam; Sittig, Dean F; Ash, Joan S; Erickson, Jessica L; Hickman, Trang T; Paterno, Marilyn; Gebhardt, Eric; McMullen, Carmit; Tsurikova, Ruslana; Dixon, Brian E; Fraser, Greg; Simonaitis, Linas; Sonnenberg, Frank A; Middleton, Blackford

2015-11-01

To identify challenges, lessons learned and best practices for service-oriented clinical decision support, based on the results of the Clinical Decision Support Consortium, a multi-site study which developed, implemented and evaluated clinical decision support services in a diverse range of electronic health records. Ethnographic investigation using the rapid assessment process, a procedure for agile qualitative data collection and analysis, including clinical observation, system demonstrations and analysis and 91 interviews. We identified challenges and lessons learned in eight dimensions: (1) hardware and software computing infrastructure, (2) clinical content, (3) human-computer interface, (4) people, (5) workflow and communication, (6) internal organizational policies, procedures, environment and culture, (7) external rules, regulations, and pressures and (8) system measurement and monitoring. Key challenges included performance issues (particularly related to data retrieval), differences in terminologies used across sites, workflow variability and the need for a legal framework. Based on the challenges and lessons learned, we identified eight best practices for developers and implementers of service-oriented clinical decision support: (1) optimize performance, or make asynchronous calls, (2) be liberal in what you accept (particularly for terminology), (3) foster clinical transparency, (4) develop a legal framework, (5) support a flexible front-end, (6) dedicate human resources, (7) support peer-to-peer communication, (8) improve standards. The Clinical Decision Support Consortium successfully developed a clinical decision support service and implemented it in four different electronic health records and four diverse clinical sites; however, the process was arduous. The lessons identified by the Consortium may be useful for other developers and implementers of clinical decision support services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Audio-video decision support for patients: the documentary genré as a basis for decision aids.

PubMed

Volandes, Angelo E; Barry, Michael J; Wood, Fiona; Elwyn, Glyn

2013-09-01

Decision support tools are increasingly using audio-visual materials. However, disagreement exists about the use of audio-visual materials as they may be subjective and biased. This is a literature review of the major texts for documentary film studies to extrapolate issues of objectivity and bias from film to decision support tools. The key features of documentary films are that they attempt to portray real events and that the attempted reality is always filtered through the lens of the filmmaker. The same key features can be said of decision support tools that use audio-visual materials. Three concerns arising from documentary film studies as they apply to the use of audio-visual materials in decision support tools include whose perspective matters (stakeholder bias), how to choose among audio-visual materials (selection bias) and how to ensure objectivity (editorial bias). Decision science needs to start a debate about how audio-visual materials are to be used in decision support tools. Simply because audio-visual materials may be subjective and open to bias does not mean that we should not use them. Methods need to be found to ensure consensus around balance and editorial control, such that audio-visual materials can be used. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Audio‐video decision support for patients: the documentary genré as a basis for decision aids

PubMed Central

Volandes, Angelo E.; Barry, Michael J.; Wood, Fiona; Elwyn, Glyn

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective  Decision support tools are increasingly using audio‐visual materials. However, disagreement exists about the use of audio‐visual materials as they may be subjective and biased. Methods  This is a literature review of the major texts for documentary film studies to extrapolate issues of objectivity and bias from film to decision support tools. Results  The key features of documentary films are that they attempt to portray real events and that the attempted reality is always filtered through the lens of the filmmaker. The same key features can be said of decision support tools that use audio‐visual materials. Three concerns arising from documentary film studies as they apply to the use of audio‐visual materials in decision support tools include whose perspective matters (stakeholder bias), how to choose among audio‐visual materials (selection bias) and how to ensure objectivity (editorial bias). Discussion  Decision science needs to start a debate about how audio‐visual materials are to be used in decision support tools. Simply because audio‐visual materials may be subjective and open to bias does not mean that we should not use them. Conclusion  Methods need to be found to ensure consensus around balance and editorial control, such that audio‐visual materials can be used. PMID:22032516

Decision-Making Amplification under Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study of Behavioral Similarity and Intelligent Decision Support Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Merle Wayne

2013-01-01

Intelligent decision systems have the potential to support and greatly amplify human decision-making across a number of industries and domains. However, despite the rapid improvement in the underlying capabilities of these "intelligent" systems, increasing their acceptance as decision aids in industry has remained a formidable challenge.…

The design of aircraft using the decision support problem technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mistree, Farrokh; Marinopoulos, Stergios; Jackson, David M.; Shupe, Jon A.

1988-01-01

The Decision Support Problem Technique for unified design, manufacturing and maintenance is being developed at the Systems Design Laboratory at the University of Houston. This involves the development of a domain-independent method (and the associated software) that can be used to process domain-dependent information and thereby provide support for human judgment. In a computer assisted environment, this support is provided in the form of optimal solutions to Decision Support Problems.

The Model of Children's Active Travel (M-CAT): a conceptual framework for examining factors influencing children's active travel.

PubMed

Pont, Karina; Ziviani, Jenny; Wadley, David; Abbott, Rebecca

2011-06-01

The current decline in children's participation in physical activity has attracted the attention of those concerned with children's health and wellbeing. A sustainable approach to ensuring children engage in adequate amounts of physical activity is to support their involvement in incidental activity such as active travel (AT), which includes walking or riding a bicycle to or from local destinations, such as school or a park. Understanding how we can embed physical activity into children's everyday occupational roles is a way in which occupational therapists can contribute to this important health promotion agenda. To present a simple, coherent and comprehensive framework as a means of examining factors influencing children's AT. Based on current literature, this conceptual framework incorporates the observable environment, parents' perceptions and decisions regarding their children's AT, as well as children's own perceptions and decisions regarding AT within their family contexts across time. The Model of Children's Active Travel (M-CAT) highlights the complex and dynamic nature of factors impacting the decision-making process of parents and children in relation to children's AT. The M-CAT offers a way forward for researchers to examine variables influencing active travel in a systematic manner. Future testing of the M-CAT will consolidate understanding of the factors underlying the decision-making process which occurs within families in the context of their communities. © 2010 The Authors. Australian Occupational Therapy Journal © 2010 Australian Association of Occupational Therapists.

Early-stage valuation of medical devices: the role of developmental uncertainty.

PubMed

Girling, Alan; Young, Terry; Brown, Celia; Lilford, Richard

2010-08-01

At the concept stage, many uncertainties surround the commercial viability of a new medical device. These include the ultimate functionality of the device, the cost of producing it and whether, and at what price, it can be sold to a health-care provider (HCP). Simple assessments of value can be made by estimating such unknowns, but the levels of uncertainty may mean that their operational value for investment decisions is unclear. However, many decisions taken at the concept stage are reversible and will be reconsidered later before the product is brought to market. This flexibility can be exploited to enhance early-stage valuations. To develop a framework for valuing a new medical device at the concept stage that balances benefit to the HCP against commercial costs. This is done within a simplified stage-gated model of the development cycle for new products. The approach is intended to complement existing proposals for the evaluation of the commercial headroom available to new medical products. A model based on two decision gates can lead to lower bounds (underestimates) for product value that can serve to support a decision to develop the product. Quantifiable uncertainty that can be resolved before the device is brought to market will generally enhance early-stage valuations of the device, and this remains true even when some components of uncertainty cannot be fully described. Clinical trials and other evidence-gathering activities undertaken as part of the development process can contribute to early-stage estimates of value.

E-Estuary: Developing a Decision Support System for Coastal Management in the Conterminous United States (IAHR)

EPA Science Inventory

Ready access to geographic information is needed to support management decisions for estuaries at local, state, regional, and national scales. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) is developing e-Estuary, a decision-support system for coastal management. E-Estuary ...

E-Estuary: Developing a Decision-support System for Coastal Management in the Counterminous Untied States (Coastal Geotools 09)

EPA Science Inventory

Ready access to geographic information is needed to support management decisions for estuaries at local, state, regional, and national scales. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) is developing e-Estuary, a decision-support system for coastal management. E-Estuary ...

E-estuary: A Decision Support System for Coastal Water and Ecosystem Management in the US (CZ09)

EPA Science Inventory

Ready access to geographic information is needed to support management decisions for estuaries at local, state, regional, and national scales. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) is developing e-Estuary, a decision-support system for coastal management. E-Estuary ...

Becoming a Mother: Supported Decision-Making in Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamieson, Rhiann; Theodore, Kate; Raczka, Roman

2016-01-01

Little is known about how women with intellectual disabilities make decisions in relation to pregnancy. Social support is important for mothers with intellectual disabilities in many areas. This study explored how the support network influenced the decision-making of women with intellectual disabilities in relation to pregnancy. The study extended…

The thinking doctor: clinical decision making in contemporary medicine.

PubMed

Trimble, Michael; Hamilton, Paul

2016-08-01

Diagnostic errors are responsible for a significant number of adverse events. Logical reasoning and good decision-making skills are key factors in reducing such errors, but little emphasis has traditionally been placed on how these thought processes occur, and how errors could be minimised. In this article, we explore key cognitive ideas that underpin clinical decision making and suggest that by employing some simple strategies, physicians might be better able to understand how they make decisions and how the process might be optimised. © 2016 Royal College of Physicians.

The determinants of strategic thinking in preschool children.

PubMed

Brocas, Isabelle; Carrillo, Juan D

2018-01-01

Strategic thinking is an essential component of rational decision-making. However, little is known about its developmental aspects. Here we show that preschoolers can reason strategically in simple individual decisions that require anticipating a limited number of future decisions. This ability is transferred only partially to solve more complex individual decision problems and to efficiently interact with others. This ability is also more developed among older children in the classroom. Results indicate that while preschoolers potentially have the capacity to think strategically, it does not always translate into the ability to behave strategically.

Bayesian design of decision rules for failure detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, E. Y.; Willsky, A. S.

1984-01-01

The formulation of the decision making process of a failure detection algorithm as a Bayes sequential decision problem provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Bayesian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is potentially a useful one.

The determinants of strategic thinking in preschool children

PubMed Central

Brocas, Isabelle

2018-01-01

Strategic thinking is an essential component of rational decision-making. However, little is known about its developmental aspects. Here we show that preschoolers can reason strategically in simple individual decisions that require anticipating a limited number of future decisions. This ability is transferred only partially to solve more complex individual decision problems and to efficiently interact with others. This ability is also more developed among older children in the classroom. Results indicate that while preschoolers potentially have the capacity to think strategically, it does not always translate into the ability to behave strategically. PMID:29851954

Design and realization of tourism spatial decision support system based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhangbao; Qi, Qingwen; Xu, Li

2008-10-01

In this paper, the existing problems of current tourism management information system are analyzed. GIS, tourism as well as spatial decision support system are introduced, and the application of geographic information system technology and spatial decision support system to tourism management and the establishment of tourism spatial decision support system based on GIS are proposed. System total structure, system hardware and software environment, database design and structure module design of this system are introduced. Finally, realization methods of this systemic core functions are elaborated.

Using mobile health technology to deliver decision support for self-monitoring after lung transplantation.

PubMed

Jiang, Yun; Sereika, Susan M; DeVito Dabbs, Annette; Handler, Steven M; Schlenk, Elizabeth A

2016-10-01

Lung transplant recipients (LTR) experience problems recognizing and reporting critical condition changes during their daily health self-monitoring. Pocket PATH(®), a mobile health application, was designed to provide automatic feedback messages to LTR to guide decisions for detecting and reporting critical values of health indicators. To examine the degree to which LTR followed decision support messages to report recorded critical values, and to explore predictors of appropriately following technology decision support by reporting critical values during the first year after transplantation. A cross-sectional correlational study was conducted to analyze existing data from 96 LTR who used the Pocket PATH for daily health self-monitoring. When a critical value is entered, the device automatically generated a feedback message to guide LTR about when and what to report to their transplant coordinators. Their socio-demographics and clinical characteristics were obtained before discharge. Their use of Pocket PATH for health self-monitoring during 12 months was categorized as low (≤25% of days), moderate (>25% to ≤75% of days), and high (>75% of days) use. Following technology decision support was defined by the total number of critical feedback messages appropriately handled divided by the total number of critical feedback messages generated. This variable was dichotomized by whether or not all (100%) feedback messages were appropriately followed. Binary logistic regression was used to explore predictors of appropriately following decision support. Of the 96 participants, 53 had at least 1 critical feedback message generated during 12 months. Of these 53 participants, the average message response rate was 90% and 33 (62%) followed 100% decision support. LTR who moderately used Pocket PATH (n=23) were less likely to follow technology decision support than the high (odds ratio [OR]=0.11, p=0.02) and low (OR=0.04, p=0.02) use groups. The odds of following decision support were reduced in LTR whose income met basic needs (OR=0.01, p=0.01) or who had longer hospital stays (OR=0.94, p=0.004). A significant interaction was found between gender and past technology experience (OR=0.21, p=0.03), suggesting that with increased past technology experience, the odds of following decision support to report all critical values decreased in men but increased in women. The majority of LTR responded appropriately to mobile technology-based decision support for reporting recorded critical values. Appropriately following technology decision support was associated with gender, income, experience with technology, length of hospital stay, and frequency of use of technology for self-monitoring. Clinicians should monitor LTR, who are at risk for poor reporting of recorded critical values, more vigilantly even when LTR are provided with mobile technology decision support. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved Targeting Through Collaborative Decision-Making and Brain Computer Interfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoica, Adrian; Barrero, David F.; McDonald-Maier, Klaus

2013-01-01

This paper reports a first step toward a brain-computer interface (BCI) for collaborative targeting. Specifically, we explore, from a broad perspective, how the collaboration of a group of people can increase the performance on a simple target identification task. To this end, we requested a group of people to identify the location and color of a sequence of targets appearing on the screen and measured the time and accuracy of the response. The individual results are compared to a collective identification result determined by simple majority voting, with random choice in case of drawn. The results are promising, as the identification becomes significantly more reliable even with this simple voting and a small number of people (either odd or even number) involved in the decision. In addition, the paper briefly analyzes the role of brain-computer interfaces in collaborative targeting, extending the targeting task by using a BCI instead of a mechanical response.

The application of reduced-processing decision support systems to facilitate the acquisition of decision-making skills.

PubMed

Perry, Nathan C; Wiggins, Mark W; Childs, Merilyn; Fogarty, Gerard

2013-06-01

The study was designed to examine whether the availability of reduced-processing decision support system interfaces could improve the decision making of inexperienced personnel in the context of Although research into reduced-processing decision support systems has demonstrated benefits in minimizing cognitive load, these benefits have not typically translated into direct improvements in decision accuracy because of the tendency for inexperienced personnel to focus on less-critical information. The authors investigated whether reduced-processing interfaces that direct users' attention toward the most critical cues for decision making can produce improvements in decision-making performance. Novice participants made incident command-related decisions in experimental conditions that differed according to the amount of information that was available within the interface, the level of control that they could exert over the presentation of information, and whether they had received decision training. The results revealed that despite receiving training, participants improved in decision accuracy only when they were provided with an interface that restricted information access to the most critical cues. It was concluded that an interface that restricts information access to only the most critical cues in the scenario can facilitate improvements in decision performance. Decision support system interfaces that encourage the processing of the most critical cues have the potential to improve the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by inexperienced personnel.

Pre-operative prediction of surgical morbidity in children: comparison of five statistical models.

PubMed

Cooper, Jennifer N; Wei, Lai; Fernandez, Soledad A; Minneci, Peter C; Deans, Katherine J

2015-02-01

The accurate prediction of surgical risk is important to patients and physicians. Logistic regression (LR) models are typically used to estimate these risks. However, in the fields of data mining and machine-learning, many alternative classification and prediction algorithms have been developed. This study aimed to compare the performance of LR to several data mining algorithms for predicting 30-day surgical morbidity in children. We used the 2012 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric dataset to compare the performance of (1) a LR model that assumed linearity and additivity (simple LR model) (2) a LR model incorporating restricted cubic splines and interactions (flexible LR model) (3) a support vector machine, (4) a random forest and (5) boosted classification trees for predicting surgical morbidity. The ensemble-based methods showed significantly higher accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV than the simple LR model. However, none of the models performed better than the flexible LR model in terms of the aforementioned measures or in model calibration or discrimination. Support vector machines, random forests, and boosted classification trees do not show better performance than LR for predicting pediatric surgical morbidity. After further validation, the flexible LR model derived in this study could be used to assist with clinical decision-making based on patient-specific surgical risks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model of interval timing by neural integration

PubMed Central

Simen, Patrick; Balci, Fuat; deSouza, Laura; Cohen, Jonathan D.; Holmes, Philip

2011-01-01

We show that simple assumptions about neural processing lead to a model of interval timing as a temporal integration process, in which a noisy firing-rate representation of time rises linearly on average toward a response threshold over the course of an interval. Our assumptions include: that neural spike trains are approximately independent Poisson processes; that correlations among them can be largely cancelled by balancing excitation and inhibition; that neural populations can act as integrators; and that the objective of timed behavior is maximal accuracy and minimal variance. The model accounts for a variety of physiological and behavioral findings in rodents, monkeys and humans, including ramping firing rates between the onset of reward-predicting cues and the receipt of delayed rewards, and universally scale-invariant response time distributions in interval timing tasks. It furthermore makes specific, well-supported predictions about the skewness of these distributions, a feature of timing data that is usually ignored. The model also incorporates a rapid (potentially one-shot) duration-learning procedure. Human behavioral data support the learning rule’s predictions regarding learning speed in sequences of timed responses. These results suggest that simple, integration-based models should play as prominent a role in interval timing theory as they do in theories of perceptual decision making, and that a common neural mechanism may underlie both types of behavior. PMID:21697374

Social support plays a role in the attitude that people have towards taking an active role in medical decision-making.

PubMed

Brabers, Anne E M; de Jong, Judith D; Groenewegen, Peter P; van Dijk, Liset

2016-09-21

There is a growing emphasis towards including patients in medical decision-making. However, not all patients are actively involved in such decisions. Research has so far focused mainly on the influence of patient characteristics on preferences for active involvement. However, it can be argued that a patient's social context has to be taken into account as well, because social norms and resources affect behaviour. This study aims to examine the role of social resources, in the form of the availability of informational and emotional support, on the attitude towards taking an active role in medical decision-making. A questionnaire was sent to members of the Dutch Health Care Consumer Panel (response 70 %; n = 1300) in June 2013. A regression model was then used to estimate the relation between medical and lay informational support and emotional support and the attitude towards taking an active role in medical decision-making. Availability of emotional support is positively related to the attitude towards taking an active role in medical decision-making only in people with a low level of education, not in persons with a middle and high level of education. The latter have a more positive attitude towards taking an active role in medical decision-making, irrespective of the level of emotional support available. People with better access to medical informational support have a more positive attitude towards taking an active role in medical decision-making; but no significant association was found for lay informational support. This study shows that social resources are associated with the attitude towards taking an active role in medical decision-making. Strategies aimed at increasing patient involvement have to address this.

Nurses' Clinical Decision Making on Adopting a Wound Clinical Decision Support System.

PubMed

Khong, Peck Chui Betty; Hoi, Shu Yin; Holroyd, Eleanor; Wang, Wenru

2015-07-01

Healthcare information technology systems are considered the ideal tool to inculcate evidence-based nursing practices. The wound clinical decision support system was built locally to support nurses to manage pressure ulcer wounds in their daily practice. However, its adoption rate is not optimal. The study's objective was to discover the concepts that informed the RNs' decisions to adopt the wound clinical decision support system as an evidence-based technology in their nursing practice. This was an exploratory, descriptive, and qualitative design using face-to-face interviews, individual interviews, and active participatory observation. A purposive, theoretical sample of 14 RNs was recruited from one of the largest public tertiary hospitals in Singapore after obtaining ethics approval. After consenting, the nurses were interviewed and observed separately. Recruitment stopped when data saturation was reached. All transcribed interview data underwent a concurrent thematic analysis, whereas observational data were content analyzed independently and subsequently triangulated with the interview data. Eight emerging themes were identified, namely, use of the wound clinical decision support system, beliefs in the wound clinical decision support system, influences of the workplace culture, extent of the benefits, professional control over nursing practices, use of knowledge, gut feelings, and emotions (fear, doubt, and frustration). These themes represented the nurses' mental outlook as they made decisions on adopting the wound clinical decision support system in light of the complexities of their roles and workloads. This research has provided insight on the nurses' thoughts regarding their decision to interact with the computer environment in a Singapore context. It captured the nurses' complex thoughts when deciding whether to adopt or reject information technology as they practice in a clinical setting.

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

Identifying the decision to be supported: a review of papers from environmental modelling and software

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, Richard S.; Chen, Serena H.; El Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Lautenbach, Sven; McIntosh, Brian S.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Seppelt, Ralf; Struss, Peter; Voinov, Alexey; Volk, Martin

2012-01-01

Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase “decision support system” or “decision support tool”, and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for consideration by journal editors to aid them in filtering papers that use the term, “decision support”.

Designing Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Support: A Cognitive Engineering Enterprise.

PubMed

Militello, Laura G; Saleem, Jason J; Borders, Morgan R; Sushereba, Christen E; Haverkamp, Donald; Wolf, Steven P; Doebbeling, Bradley N

2016-03-01

Adoption of clinical decision support has been limited. Important barriers include an emphasis on algorithmic approaches to decision support that do not align well with clinical work flow and human decision strategies, and the expense and challenge of developing, implementing, and refining decision support features in existing electronic health records (EHRs). We applied decision-centered design to create a modular software application to support physicians in managing and tracking colorectal cancer screening. Using decision-centered design facilitates a thorough understanding of cognitive support requirements from an end user perspective as a foundation for design. In this project, we used an iterative design process, including ethnographic observation and cognitive task analysis, to move from an initial design concept to a working modular software application called the Screening & Surveillance App. The beta version is tailored to work with the Veterans Health Administration's EHR Computerized Patient Record System (CPRS). Primary care providers using the beta version Screening & Surveillance App more accurately answered questions about patients and found relevant information more quickly compared to those using CPRS alone. Primary care providers also reported reduced mental effort and rated the Screening & Surveillance App positively for usability.

Designing Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Support: A Cognitive Engineering Enterprise

PubMed Central

Militello, Laura G.; Saleem, Jason J.; Borders, Morgan R.; Sushereba, Christen E.; Haverkamp, Donald; Wolf, Steven P.; Doebbeling, Bradley N.

2016-01-01

Adoption of clinical decision support has been limited. Important barriers include an emphasis on algorithmic approaches to decision support that do not align well with clinical work flow and human decision strategies, and the expense and challenge of developing, implementing, and refining decision support features in existing electronic health records (EHRs). We applied decision-centered design to create a modular software application to support physicians in managing and tracking colorectal cancer screening. Using decision-centered design facilitates a thorough understanding of cognitive support requirements from an end user perspective as a foundation for design. In this project, we used an iterative design process, including ethnographic observation and cognitive task analysis, to move from an initial design concept to a working modular software application called the Screening & Surveillance App. The beta version is tailored to work with the Veterans Health Administration’s EHR Computerized Patient Record System (CPRS). Primary care providers using the beta version Screening & Surveillance App more accurately answered questions about patients and found relevant information more quickly compared to those using CPRS alone. Primary care providers also reported reduced mental effort and rated the Screening & Surveillance App positively for usability. PMID:26973441

An RDF/OWL knowledge base for query answering and decision support in clinical pharmacogenetics.

PubMed

Samwald, Matthias; Freimuth, Robert; Luciano, Joanne S; Lin, Simon; Powers, Robert L; Marshall, M Scott; Adlassnig, Klaus-Peter; Dumontier, Michel; Boyce, Richard D

2013-01-01

Genetic testing for personalizing pharmacotherapy is bound to become an important part of clinical routine. To address associated issues with data management and quality, we are creating a semantic knowledge base for clinical pharmacogenetics. The knowledge base is made up of three components: an expressive ontology formalized in the Web Ontology Language (OWL 2 DL), a Resource Description Framework (RDF) model for capturing detailed results of manual annotation of pharmacogenomic information in drug product labels, and an RDF conversion of relevant biomedical datasets. Our work goes beyond the state of the art in that it makes both automated reasoning as well as query answering as simple as possible, and the reasoning capabilities go beyond the capabilities of previously described ontologies.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

A conceptual evolutionary aseismic decision support framework for hospitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yufeng; Dargush, Gary F.; Shao, Xiaoyun

2012-12-01

In this paper, aconceptual evolutionary framework for aseismic decision support for hospitalsthat attempts to integrate a range of engineering and sociotechnical models is presented. Genetic algorithms are applied to find the optimal decision sets. A case study is completed to demonstrate how the frameworkmay applytoa specific hospital.The simulations show that the proposed evolutionary decision support framework is able to discover robust policy sets in either uncertain or fixed environments. The framework also qualitatively identifies some of the characteristicbehavior of the critical care organization. Thus, by utilizing the proposedframework, the decision makers are able to make more informed decisions, especially toenhance the seismic safety of the hospitals.

Preparing for a decision support system.

PubMed

Callan, K

2000-08-01

The increasing pressure to reduce costs and improve outcomes is driving the health care industry to view information as a competitive advantage. Timely information is required to help reduce inefficiencies and improve patient care. Numerous disparate operational or transactional information systems with inconsistent and often conflicting data are no longer adequate to meet the information needs of integrated care delivery systems and networks in competitive managed care environments. This article reviews decision support system characteristics and describes a process to assess the preparedness of an organization to implement and use decision support systems to achieve a more effective, information-based decision process. Decision support tools included in this article range from reports to data mining.

Fast or Frugal, but Not Both: Decision Heuristics Under Time Pressure

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Heuristics are simple, yet effective, strategies that people use to make decisions. Because heuristics do not require all available information, they are thought to be easy to implement and to not tax limited cognitive resources, which has led heuristics to be characterized as fast-and-frugal. We question this monolithic conception of heuristics by contrasting the cognitive demands of two popular heuristics, Tallying and Take-the-Best. We contend that heuristics that are frugal in terms of information usage may not always be fast because of the attentional control required to implement this focus in certain contexts. In support of this hypothesis, we find that Take-the-Best, while being more frugal in terms of information usage, is slower to implement and fares worse under time pressure manipulations than Tallying. This effect is then reversed when search costs for Take-the-Best are reduced by changing the format of the stimuli. These findings suggest that heuristics are heterogeneous and should be unpacked according to their cognitive demands to determine the circumstances a heuristic best applies. PMID:28557503

Fast or frugal, but not both: Decision heuristics under time pressure.

PubMed

Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Love, Bradley C

2018-01-01

Heuristics are simple, yet effective, strategies that people use to make decisions. Because heuristics do not require all available information, they are thought to be easy to implement and to not tax limited cognitive resources, which has led heuristics to be characterized as fast-and-frugal. We question this monolithic conception of heuristics by contrasting the cognitive demands of two popular heuristics, Tallying and Take-the-Best. We contend that heuristics that are frugal in terms of information usage may not always be fast because of the attentional control required to implement this focus in certain contexts. In support of this hypothesis, we find that Take-the-Best, while being more frugal in terms of information usage, is slower to implement and fares worse under time pressure manipulations than Tallying. This effect is then reversed when search costs for Take-the-Best are reduced by changing the format of the stimuli. These findings suggest that heuristics are heterogeneous and should be unpacked according to their cognitive demands to determine the circumstances a heuristic best applies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Efficient Workflows for Curation of Heterogeneous Data Supporting Modeling of U-Nb Alloy Aging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, Logan Timothy; Hackenberg, Robert Errol

These are slides from a presentation summarizing a graduate research associate's summer project. The following topics are covered in these slides: data challenges in materials, aging in U-Nb Alloys, Building an Aging Model, Different Phase Trans. in U-Nb, the Challenge, Storing Materials Data, Example Data Source, Organizing Data: What is a Schema?, What does a "XML Schema" look like?, Our Data Schema: Nice and Simple, Storing Data: Materials Data Curation System (MDCS), Problem with MDCS: Slow Data Entry, Getting Literature into MDCS, Staging Data in Excel Document, Final Result: MDCS Records, Analyzing Image Data, Process for Making TTT Diagram, Bottleneckmore » Number 1: Image Analysis, Fitting a TTP Boundary, Fitting a TTP Curve: Comparable Results, How Does it Compare to Our Data?, Image Analysis Workflow, Curating Hardness Records, Hardness Data: Two Key Decisions, Before Peak Age? - Automation, Interactive Viz, Which Transformation?, Microstructure-Informed Model, Tracking the Entire Process, General Problem with Property Models, Pinyon: Toolkit for Managing Model Creation, Tracking Individual Decisions, Jupyter: Docs and Code in One File, Hardness Analysis Workflow, Workflow for Aging Models, and conclusions.« less

Integrating health economics modeling in the product development cycle of medical devices: a Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Vallejo-Torres, Laura; Steuten, Lotte M G; Buxton, Martin J; Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry

2008-01-01

Medical device companies are under growing pressure to provide health-economic evaluations of their products. Cost-effectiveness analyses are commonly undertaken as a one-off exercise at the late stage of development of new technologies; however, the benefits of an iterative use of economic evaluation during the development process of new products have been acknowledged in the literature. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods within health technology assessment has been shown to be of particular value in the dynamic framework of technology appraisal when new information becomes available in the life cycle of technologies. In this study, we set out a methodology to adapt these methods for their application to directly support investment decisions in a commercial setting from early stages of the development of new medical devices. Starting with relatively simple analysis from the very early development phase and proceeding to greater depth of analysis at later stages, a Bayesian approach facilitates the incorporation of all available evidence and would help companies to make better informed choices at each decision point.

Medical Data Analytics Is Not a Simple Task.

PubMed

Babič, František; Vadovský, Michal; Paralič, Ján

2018-01-01

Data analytics represents a new chance for medical diagnosis and treatment to make it more effective and successful. This expectation is not so easy to achieve as it may look like at a first glance. The medical experts, doctors or general practitioners have their own vocabulary, they use specific terms and type of speaking. On the other side, data analysts have to understand the task and to select the right algorithms. The applicability of the results depends on the effectiveness of the interactions between those two worlds. This paper presents our experiences with various medical data samples in form of SWOT analysis. We identified the most important input attributes for the target diagnosis or extracted decision rules and analysed their interestingness with cooperating doctors, for most promising new cut-off values or an investigation of possible important relations hidden in data sample. In general, this type of knowledge can be used for clinical decision support, but it has to be evaluated on different samples, conditions and ideally in long-term studies. Sometimes, the interaction needed much more time than we expected at the beginning but our experiences are mostly positive.

The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System: Providing information for carbon cycle studies with open source geospatial tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H.; Erickson, T.; McKenzie, D.

2008-12-01

A major goal of the North American Carbon Program is to resolve uncertainties in understanding and managing the carbon cycle of North America. As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive and spatially oriented, accurate datasets to spatially quantify carbon emissions from fire are needed, and these data resources need to be accessible to users for decision-making. Under a new NASA Carbon Cycle Science project, Drs. Nancy French and Tyler Erickson, of the Michigan Technological University, Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI), are teaming with specialists with the USDA Forest Service Fire and Environmental Research Applications (FERA) team to provide information for mapping fire-derived carbon emissions to users. The project focus includes development of a web-based system to provide spatially resolved fire emissions estimates for North America in a user-friendly environment. The web-based Decision Support System will be based on a variety of open source technologies. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) raster map of fuels and MODIS-derived burned area vector maps will be processed using the Geographic Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) and OGR Simple Features Library. Tabular and spatial project data will be stored in a PostgreSQL/PostGIS, a spatially enabled relational database server. The browser-based user interface will be created using the Django web page framework to allow user input for the decision support system. The OpenLayers mapping framework will be used to provide users with interactive maps within the browser. In addition, the data products will be made available in standard open data formats such as KML, to allow for easy integration into other spatial models and data systems.

Can This Patient Be Discharged Home? Factors Associated With At-Home Death Among Patients With Cancer

PubMed Central

Alonso-Babarro, Alberto; Bruera, Eduardo; Varela-Cerdeira, María; Boya-Cristia, María Jesús; Madero, Rosario; Torres-Vigil, Isabel; De Castro, Javier; González-Barón, Manuel

2011-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with at-home death among patients with advanced cancer and create a decision-making model for discharging patients from an acute-care hospital. Patients and Methods We conducted an observational cohort study to identify the association between place of death and the clinical and demographic characteristics of patients with advanced cancer who received care from a palliative home care team (PHCT) and of their primary caregivers. We used logistic regression analysis to identify the predictors of at-home death. Results We identified 380 patients who met the study inclusion criteria; of these, 245 patients (64%) died at home, 72 (19%) died in an acute-care hospital, 60 (16%) died in a palliative care unit, and three (1%) died in a nursing home. Median follow-up was 48 days. We included the 16 variables that were significant in univariate analysis in our decision-making model. Five variables predictive of at-home death were retained in the multivariate analysis: caregiver's preferred place of death, patients' preferred place of death, caregiver's perceived social support, number of hospital admission days, and number of PHCT visits. A subsequent reduced model including only those variables that were known at the time of discharge (caregivers' preferred place of death, patients' preferred place of death, and caregivers' perceived social support) had a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 81% in predicting place of death. Conclusion Asking a few simple patient- and family-centered questions may help to inform the decision regarding the best place for end-of-life care and death. PMID:21343566

HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

Analysis and Design of a Decision Support System for Silas B. Hays Army Community Hospital

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

develop the DSS. This collaboration allows the user to learn about the power decision support can give to the decision maker and... projects under their control. A DSS is developed to provide decision support for a specific manager or group , and con- sequently falls under the ... It is possible the first iteration could be developed in more than one programming language and results compared . Once the first

Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

PubMed

Webb, Colleen T; Ferrari, Matthew; Lindström, Tom; Carpenter, Tim; Dürr, Salome; Garner, Graeme; Jewell, Chris; Stevenson, Mark; Ward, Michael P; Werkman, Marleen; Backer, Jantien; Tildesley, Michael

2017-03-01

Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The EU Dimension to Soil Science in Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Sue

2012-01-01

The EU as a context for science lessons may be given scant attention but EU decision-making is a vital factor in everyday life. Lessons on the emergence of soil science with Charles Darwin's simple scientific experiments can be linked with competence through action, inclusion and argumentations in science lessons. Decisions about an EU Soil…

Scoring and Classifying Examinees Using Measurement Decision Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rudner, Lawrence M.

2009-01-01

This paper describes and evaluates the use of measurement decision theory (MDT) to classify examinees based on their item response patterns. The model has a simple framework that starts with the conditional probabilities of examinees in each category or mastery state responding correctly to each item. The presented evaluation investigates: (1) the…

Re-Engineering the United States Marine Corps Special Education Program (SEP).

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-03-01

McDonald’s or Burger King based on personal preference. This simple decision has only two alternatives and relatively low consequences (the decision...In the example of restaurants seen above, a person would not be able to examine 2000 different franchises and select the best one in which to invest

Using basic geographic information systems functionality to support sustainable forest management decision making and post-decision assessments

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.

2006-01-01

Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...

Digital technology and clinical decision making in depression treatment: Current findings and future opportunities.

PubMed

Hallgren, Kevin A; Bauer, Amy M; Atkins, David C

2017-06-01

Clinical decision making encompasses a broad set of processes that contribute to the effectiveness of depression treatments. There is emerging interest in using digital technologies to support effective and efficient clinical decision making. In this paper, we provide "snapshots" of research and current directions on ways that digital technologies can support clinical decision making in depression treatment. Practical facets of clinical decision making are reviewed, then research, design, and implementation opportunities where technology can potentially enhance clinical decision making are outlined. Discussions of these opportunities are organized around three established movements designed to enhance clinical decision making for depression treatment, including measurement-based care, integrated care, and personalized medicine. Research, design, and implementation efforts may support clinical decision making for depression by (1) improving tools to incorporate depression symptom data into existing electronic health record systems, (2) enhancing measurement of treatment fidelity and treatment processes, (3) harnessing smartphone and biosensor data to inform clinical decision making, (4) enhancing tools that support communication and care coordination between patients and providers and within provider teams, and (5) leveraging treatment and outcome data from electronic health record systems to support personalized depression treatment. The current climate of rapid changes in both healthcare and digital technologies facilitates an urgent need for research, design, and implementation of digital technologies that explicitly support clinical decision making. Ensuring that such tools are efficient, effective, and usable in frontline treatment settings will be essential for their success and will require engagement of stakeholders from multiple domains. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Academic Support Services and Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy in Student Athletes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Gary N.; Jasinski, Dale; Dunn, Steve; Fletcher, Duncan

2013-01-01

This study examined the relationship between evaluations of academic support services and student athletes' career decision-making self-efficacy. One hundred and fifty-eight NCAA athletes (68% male) from 11 Division I teams completed measures of satisfaction with their academic support services, career decision-making self-efficacy, general…

EMDS users guide (version 2.0): knowledge-based decision support for ecological assessment.

Treesearch

Keith M. Reynolds

1999-01-01

The USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station in Corvallis, Oregon, has developed the ecosystem management decision support (EMDS) system. The system integrates the logical formalism of knowledge-based reasoning into a geographic information system (GIS) environment to provide decision support for ecological landscape assessment and evaluation. The...

Developing an Interactive Data Visualization Tool to Assess the Impact of Decision Support on Clinical Operations.

PubMed

Huber, Timothy C; Krishnaraj, Arun; Monaghan, Dayna; Gaskin, Cree M

2018-05-18

Due to mandates from recent legislation, clinical decision support (CDS) software is being adopted by radiology practices across the country. This software provides imaging study decision support for referring providers at the point of order entry. CDS systems produce a large volume of data, providing opportunities for research and quality improvement. In order to better visualize and analyze trends in this data, an interactive data visualization dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform. Following the integration of a commercially available clinical decision support product into the electronic health record, a dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform (Tableau, Seattle, WA). Data generated by the CDS were exported from the data warehouse, where they were stored, into the platform. This allowed for real-time visualization of the data generated by the decision support software. The creation of the dashboard allowed the output from the CDS platform to be more easily analyzed and facilitated hypothesis generation. Integrating data visualization tools into clinical decision support tools allows for easier data analysis and can streamline research and quality improvement efforts.

Design, implementation, use, and preliminary evaluation of SEBASTIAN, a standards-based Web service for clinical decision support.

PubMed

Kawamoto, Kensaku; Lobach, David F

2005-01-01

Despite their demonstrated ability to improve care quality, clinical decision support systems are not widely used. In part, this limited use is due to the difficulty of sharing medical knowledge in a machine-executable format. To address this problem, we developed a decision support Web service known as SEBASTIAN. In SEBASTIAN, individual knowledge modules define the data requirements for assessing a patient, the conclusions that can be drawn using that data, and instructions on how to generate those conclusions. Using standards-based XML messages transmitted over HTTP, client decision support applications provide patient data to SEBASTIAN and receive patient-specific assessments and recommendations. SEBASTIAN has been used to implement four distinct decision support systems; an architectural overview is provided for one of these systems. Preliminary assessments indicate that SEBASTIAN fulfills all original design objectives, including the re-use of executable medical knowledge across diverse applications and care settings, the straightforward authoring of knowledge modules, and use of the framework to implement decision support applications with significant clinical utility.

User-centered design to improve clinical decision support in primary care.

PubMed

Brunner, Julian; Chuang, Emmeline; Goldzweig, Caroline; Cain, Cindy L; Sugar, Catherine; Yano, Elizabeth M

2017-08-01

A growing literature has demonstrated the ability of user-centered design to make clinical decision support systems more effective and easier to use. However, studies of user-centered design have rarely examined more than a handful of sites at a time, and have frequently neglected the implementation climate and organizational resources that influence clinical decision support. The inclusion of such factors was identified by a systematic review as "the most important improvement that can be made in health IT evaluations." (1) Identify the prevalence of four user-centered design practices at United States Veterans Affairs (VA) primary care clinics and assess the perceived utility of clinical decision support at those clinics; (2) Evaluate the association between those user-centered design practices and the perceived utility of clinical decision support. We analyzed clinic-level survey data collected in 2006-2007 from 170 VA primary care clinics. We examined four user-centered design practices: 1) pilot testing, 2) provider satisfaction assessment, 3) formal usability assessment, and 4) analysis of impact on performance improvement. We used a regression model to evaluate the association between user-centered design practices and the perceived utility of clinical decision support, while accounting for other important factors at those clinics, including implementation climate, available resources, and structural characteristics. We also examined associations separately at community-based clinics and at hospital-based clinics. User-centered design practices for clinical decision support varied across clinics: 74% conducted pilot testing, 62% conducted provider satisfaction assessment, 36% conducted a formal usability assessment, and 79% conducted an analysis of impact on performance improvement. Overall perceived utility of clinical decision support was high, with a mean rating of 4.17 (±.67) out of 5 on a composite measure. "Analysis of impact on performance improvement" was the only user-centered design practice significantly associated with perceived utility of clinical decision support, b=.47 (p<.001). This association was present in hospital-based clinics, b=.34 (p<.05), but was stronger at community-based clinics, b=.61 (p<.001). Our findings are highly supportive of the practice of analyzing the impact of clinical decision support on performance metrics. This was the most common user-centered design practice in our study, and was the practice associated with higher perceived utility of clinical decision support. This practice may be particularly helpful at community-based clinics, which are typically less connected to VA medical center resources. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Geospatial Data Fusion and Multigroup Decision Support for Surface Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, A. Y.; Osidele, O.; Green, R. T.; Xie, H.

2010-12-01

Social networking and social media have gained significant popularity and brought fundamental changes to many facets of our everyday life. With the ever-increasing adoption of GPS-enabled gadgets and technology, location-based content is likely to play a central role in social networking sites. While location-based content is not new to the geoscience community, where geographic information systems (GIS) are extensively used, the delivery of useful geospatial data to targeted user groups for decision support is new. Decision makers and modelers ought to make more effective use of the new web-based tools to expand the scope of environmental awareness education, public outreach, and stakeholder interaction. Environmental decision processes are often rife with uncertainty and controversy, requiring integration of multiple sources of information and compromises between diverse interests. Fusing of multisource, multiscale environmental data for multigroup decision support is a challenging task. Toward this goal, a multigroup decision support platform should strive to achieve transparency, impartiality, and timely synthesis of information. The latter criterion often constitutes a major technical bottleneck to traditional GIS-based media, featuring large file or image sizes and requiring special processing before web deployment. Many tools and design patterns have appeared in recent years to ease the situation somewhat. In this project, we explore the use of Web 2.0 technologies for “pushing” location-based content to multigroups involved in surface water quality management and decision making. In particular, our granular bottom-up approach facilitates effective delivery of information to most relevant user groups. Our location-based content includes in-situ and remotely sensed data disseminated by NASA and other national and local agencies. Our project is demonstrated for managing the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program in the Arroyo Colorado coastal river basin in Texas. The overall design focuses on assigning spatial information to decision support elements and on efficiently using Web 2.0 technologies to relay scientific information to the nonscientific community. We conclude that (i) social networking, if appropriately used, has great potential for mitigating difficulty associated with multigroup decision making; (ii) all potential stakeholder groups should be involved in creating a useful decision support system; and (iii) environmental decision support systems should be considered a must-have, instead of an optional component of TMDL decision support projects. Acknowledgment: This project was supported by NASA grant NNX09AR63G.

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

PubMed

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying STOPP Guidelines in Primary Care Through Electronic Medical Record Decision Support: Randomized Control Trial Highlighting the Importance of Data Quality.

PubMed

Price, Morgan; Davies, Iryna; Rusk, Raymond; Lesperance, Mary; Weber, Jens

2017-06-15

Potentially Inappropriate Prescriptions (PIPs) are a common cause of morbidity, particularly in the elderly. We sought to understand how the Screening Tool of Older People's Prescriptions (STOPP) prescribing criteria, implemented in a routinely used primary care Electronic Medical Record (EMR), could impact PIP rates in community (non-academic) primary care practices. We conducted a mixed-method, pragmatic, cluster, randomized control trial in research naïve primary care practices. Phase 1: In the randomized controlled trial, 40 fully automated STOPP rules were implemented as EMR alerts during a 16-week intervention period. The control group did not receive the 40 STOPP rules (but received other alerts). Participants were recruited through the OSCAR EMR user group mailing list and in person at user group meetings. Results were assessed by querying EMR data PIPs. EMR data quality probes were included. Phase 2: physicians were invited to participate in 1-hour semi-structured interviews to discuss the results. In the EMR, 40 STOPP rules were successfully implemented. Phase 1: A total of 28 physicians from 8 practices were recruited (16 in intervention and 12 in control groups). The calculated PIP rate was 2.6% (138/5308) (control) and 4.11% (768/18,668) (intervention) at baseline. No change in PIPs was observed through the intervention (P=.80). Data quality probes generally showed low use of problem list and medication list. Phase 2: A total of 5 physicians participated. All the participants felt that they were aware of the alerts but commented on workflow and presentation challenges. The calculated PIP rate was markedly less than the expected rate found in literature (2.6% and 4.0% vs 20% in literature). Data quality probes highlighted issues related to completeness of data in areas of the EMR used for PIP reporting and by the decision support such as problem and medication lists. Users also highlighted areas for better integration of STOPP guidelines with prescribing workflows. Many of the STOPP criteria can be implemented in EMRs using simple logic. However, data quality in EMRs continues to be a challenge and was a limiting step in the effectiveness of the decision support in this study. This is important as decision makers continue to fund implementation and adoption of EMRs with the expectation of the use of advanced tools (such as decision support) without ongoing review of data quality and improvement. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02130895; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02130895 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6qyFigSYT). ©Morgan Price, Iryna Davies, Raymond Rusk, Mary Lesperance, Jens Weber. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 15.06.2017.

A Decision Support System for Evaluating Systems of Undersea Sensors and Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

distribution is unlimited A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR EVALUATING SYSTEMS OF UNDERSEA SENSORS AND WEAPONS by Team Mental Focus Cohort 142O...A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR EVALUATING SYSTEMS OF UNDERSEA SENSORS AND WEAPONS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Systems Engineering Cohort...undersea weapons, it requires the supporting tools to evaluate and predict the effectiveness of these system concepts. While current naval minefield

Combat Service Support (CSS) Enabler Functional Assessment (CEFA)

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-07-01

CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision making related to mitigating E/I peacetime (programmatic) and wartime risks...not be fielded by Fiscal Year (FY) 10. Based on their estimates, any decisions , especially reductions in manpower, which rely on the existence of the E...Support (CSS) enablers/initiatives (E/I), thereby providing the Commander (CDR), Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) with a tool to aid decision

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Mining peripheral arterial disease cases from narrative clinical notes using natural language processing.

PubMed

Afzal, Naveed; Sohn, Sunghwan; Abram, Sara; Scott, Christopher G; Chaudhry, Rajeev; Liu, Hongfang; Kullo, Iftikhar J; Arruda-Olson, Adelaide M

2017-06-01

Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is highly prevalent and affects millions of individuals worldwide. We developed a natural language processing (NLP) system for automated ascertainment of PAD cases from clinical narrative notes and compared the performance of the NLP algorithm with billing code algorithms, using ankle-brachial index test results as the gold standard. We compared the performance of the NLP algorithm to (1) results of gold standard ankle-brachial index; (2) previously validated algorithms based on relevant International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnostic codes (simple model); and (3) a combination of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes with procedural codes (full model). A dataset of 1569 patients with PAD and controls was randomly divided into training (n = 935) and testing (n = 634) subsets. We iteratively refined the NLP algorithm in the training set including narrative note sections, note types, and service types, to maximize its accuracy. In the testing dataset, when compared with both simple and full models, the NLP algorithm had better accuracy (NLP, 91.8%; full model, 81.8%; simple model, 83%; P < .001), positive predictive value (NLP, 92.9%; full model, 74.3%; simple model, 79.9%; P < .001), and specificity (NLP, 92.5%; full model, 64.2%; simple model, 75.9%; P < .001). A knowledge-driven NLP algorithm for automatic ascertainment of PAD cases from clinical notes had greater accuracy than billing code algorithms. Our findings highlight the potential of NLP tools for rapid and efficient ascertainment of PAD cases from electronic health records to facilitate clinical investigation and eventually improve care by clinical decision support. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The process of development of a prioritization tool for a clinical decision support build within a computerized provider order entry system: Experiences from St Luke's Health System.

PubMed

Wolf, Matthew; Miller, Suzanne; DeJong, Doug; House, John A; Dirks, Carl; Beasley, Brent

2016-09-01

To establish a process for the development of a prioritization tool for a clinical decision support build within a computerized provider order entry system and concurrently to prioritize alerts for Saint Luke's Health System. The process of prioritizing clinical decision support alerts included (a) consensus sessions to establish a prioritization process and identify clinical decision support alerts through a modified Delphi process and (b) a clinical decision support survey to validate the results. All members of our health system's physician quality organization, Saint Luke's Care as well as clinicians, administrators, and pharmacy staff throughout Saint Luke's Health System, were invited to participate in this confidential survey. The consensus sessions yielded a prioritization process through alert contextualization and associated Likert-type scales. Utilizing this process, the clinical decision support survey polled the opinions of 850 clinicians with a 64.7 percent response rate. Three of the top rated alerts were approved for the pre-implementation build at Saint Luke's Health System: Acute Myocardial Infarction Core Measure Sets, Deep Vein Thrombosis Prophylaxis within 4 h, and Criteria for Sepsis. This study establishes a process for developing a prioritization tool for a clinical decision support build within a computerized provider order entry system that may be applicable to similar institutions. © The Author(s) 2015.

Modeling gene flow distribution within conventional fields and development of a simplified sampling method to quantify adventitious GM contents in maize

PubMed Central

Melé, Enric; Nadal, Anna; Messeguer, Joaquima; Melé-Messeguer, Marina; Palaudelmàs, Montserrat; Peñas, Gisela; Piferrer, Xavier; Capellades, Gemma; Serra, Joan; Pla, Maria

2015-01-01

Genetically modified (GM) crops have been commercially grown for two decades. GM maize is one of 3 species with the highest acreage and specific events. Many countries established a mandatory labeling of products containing GM material, with thresholds for adventitious presence, to support consumers’ freedom of choice. In consequence, coexistence systems need to be introduced to facilitate commercial culture of GM and non-GM crops in the same agricultural area. On modeling adventitious GM cross-pollination distribution within maize fields, we deduced a simple equation to estimate overall GM contents (%GM) of conventional fields, irrespective of its shape and size, and with no previous information on possible GM pollen donor fields. A sampling strategy was designed and experimentally validated in 19 agricultural fields. With 9 samples, %GM quantification requires just one analytical GM determination while identification of the pollen source needs 9 additional analyses. A decision support tool is provided. PMID:26596213

The review of some chosen approaches to foresee the development of urban areas. (Polish Title: Przeglad wybranych podejsc w zakresie prognozowania rozwoju obszarow miast)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radło-Kulisiewicz, M.

2015-12-01

The practical importance of Geographical Information Systems in urban planning and managing of urban areas is becoming much more explicit. Managing small cities usually needs simple GIS spatial analysis tools to support planners' decisions. Otherwise, the urban dynamic is bigger and factors affecting changes in city are combined. These analyses are not sufficient and then a need for more advanced and sophisticated solutions can appear. The aim of this article is to introduce popular techniques for urban modelling and underlying importance of GIS as an environment for creating simple models, which let t easy decisions in creating vision of a city be taken. The Article touches on the following issues related to the planning and management of urban space; from the applicable standards concerning materials planning in Poland, through the possibilities that give us network solutions useful at the municipal and country level, to existing techniques in modelling cities in the world. The background for these questions are the Geographical Information Systems (their role in this respect), that naturally fit into this theme. The ability to analyze multi-source data at different levels of detail, in different variants and ranges, predispose the GIS to environmental urban management. While also taking into account social - economic factors, integrated with GIS predictive modeling techniques, allows us to understand dependencies that navigate complex urban phenomena. City management in an integrated and thoughtful manner and will reduce the costs associated with the expansion of the urban fabric and avoid the chaos of urban development.

Are mobile health applications useful for supporting shared decision making in diagnostic and treatment decisions?

PubMed Central

Abbasgholizadeh Rahimi, Samira; Menear, Matthew; Robitaille, Hubert; Légaré, France

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Mobile health (mHealth) applications intended to support shared decision making in diagnostic and treatment decisions are increasingly available. In this paper, we discuss some recent studies on mHealth applications with relevance to shared decision making. We discuss the potential advantages and disadvantages of using mHealth in shared decision making in various contexts, and suggest some directions for future research in this quickly expanding field. PMID:28838306

Human-computer interface for the study of information fusion concepts in situation analysis and command decision support systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Jean; Breton, Richard; Paradis, Stephane

2001-08-01

Situation Awareness (SAW) is essential for commanders to conduct decision-making (DM) activities. Situation Analysis (SA) is defined as a process, the examination of a situation, its elements, and their relations, to provide and maintain a product, i.e., a state of SAW for the decision maker. Operational trends in warfare put the situation analysis process under pressure. This emphasizes the need for a real-time computer-based Situation analysis Support System (SASS) to aid commanders in achieving the appropriate situation awareness, thereby supporting their response to actual or anticipated threats. Data fusion is clearly a key enabler for SA and a SASS. Since data fusion is used for SA in support of dynamic human decision-making, the exploration of the SA concepts and the design of data fusion techniques must take into account human factor aspects in order to ensure a cognitive fit of the fusion system with the decision-maker. Indeed, the tight human factor aspects in order to ensure a cognitive fit of the fusion system with the decision-maker. Indeed, the tight integration of the human element with the SA technology is essential. Regarding these issues, this paper provides a description of CODSI (Command Decision Support Interface), and operational- like human machine interface prototype for investigations in computer-based SA and command decision support. With CODSI, one objective was to apply recent developments in SA theory and information display technology to the problem of enhancing SAW quality. It thus provides a capability to adequately convey tactical information to command decision makers. It also supports the study of human-computer interactions for SA, and methodologies for SAW measurement.

The use of the Dutch Self-Sufficiency Matrix (SSM-D) to inform allocation decisions to public mental health care for homeless people.

PubMed

Lauriks, Steve; de Wit, Matty A S; Buster, Marcel C A; Fassaert, Thijs J L; van Wifferen, Ron; Klazinga, Niek S

2014-10-01

The current study set out to develop a decision support tool based on the Self-Sufficiency Matrix (Dutch version; SSM-D) for the clinical decision to allocate homeless people to the public mental health care system at the central access point of public mental health care in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic-curve analyses were used to model professional decisions and establish four decision categories based on SSM-D scores from half of the research population (Total n = 612). The model and decision categories were found to be accurate and reliable in predicting professional decisions in the second half of the population. Results indicate that the decision support tool based on the SSM-D is useful and feasible. The method to develop the SSM-D as a decision support tool could be applied to decision-making processes in other systems and services where the SSM-D has been implemented, to further increase the utility of the instrument.

Knowledge-Based Information Management in Decision Support for Ecosystem Management

Treesearch

Keith Reynolds; Micahel Saunders; Richard Olson; Daniel Schmoldt; Michael Foster; Donald Latham; Bruce Miller; John Steffenson; Lawrence Bednar; Patrick Cunningham

1995-01-01

The Pacific Northwest Research Station (USDA Forest Service) is developing a knowledge-based information management system to provide decision support for watershed analysis in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. The decision support system includes: (1) a GIS interface that allows users to graphically navigate to specific provinces and watersheds and display a...

Decision Support Systems Project. Design Review Conference, October 14-15, 1984. Summary Report of Findings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tetlow, William L.

Findings of a conference that reviewed and evaluated design decisions concerning the Decision Support System (DSS) Demonstrator are summarized. The DSS Demonstrator was designed by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems as an example of the way in which microcomputer technology can support and make more effective planning and…

Development of Asset Management Decision Support Tools for Power Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, Tatsuki; Takahashi, Tsuguhiro

Development of asset management decision support tools become very intensive in order to reduce maintenance cost of power equipment due to the liberalization of power business. This article reviews some aspects of present status of asset management decision support tools development for power equipment based on the papers published in international conferences, domestic conventions, and several journals.

A model study on the circuit mechanism underlying decision-making in Drosophila.

PubMed

Wu, Zhihua; Guo, Aike

2011-05-01

Previous elegant experiments in a flight simulator showed that conditioned Drosophila is able to make a clear-cut decision to avoid potential danger. When confronted with conflicting visual cues, the relative saliency of two competing cues is found to be a sensory ruler for flies to judge which cue should be used for decision-making. Further genetic manipulations and immunohistological analysis revealed that the dopamine system and mushroom bodies are indispensable for such a clear-cut or nonlinear decision. The neural circuit mechanism, however, is far from being clear. In this paper, we adopt a computational modeling approach to investigate how different brain areas and the dopamine system work together to drive a fly to make a decision. By developing a systems-level neural network, a two-pathway circuit is proposed. Besides a direct pathway from a feature binding area to the motor center, another connects two areas via the mushroom body, a target of dopamine release. A raised dopamine level is hypothesized to be induced by complex choice tasks and to enhance lateral inhibition and steepen the units' response gain in the mushroom body. Simulations show that training helps to assign values to formerly neutral features. For a circuit model with a blocked mushroom body, the direct pathway passes all alternatives to the motor center without changing original values, giving rise to a simple choice characterized by a linear choice curve. With respect to an intact circuit, enhanced lateral inhibition dependent on dopamine critically promotes competition between alternatives, turning the linear- into nonlinear choice behavior. Results account well for experimental data, supporting the reasonableness of model working hypotheses. Several testable predictions are made for future studies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Driving with roadmaps and dashboards: using information resources to structure the decision models in service organizations.

PubMed

Chorpita, Bruce F; Bernstein, Adam; Daleiden, Eric L

2008-03-01

This paper illustrates the application of design principles for tools that structure clinical decision-making. If the effort to implement evidence-based practices in community services organizations is to be effective, attention must be paid to the decision-making context in which such treatments are delivered. Clinical research trials commonly occur in an environment characterized by structured decision making and expert supports. Technology has great potential to serve mental health organizations by supporting these potentially important contextual features of the research environment, through organization and reporting of clinical data into interpretable information to support decisions and anchor decision-making procedures. This article describes one example of a behavioral health reporting system designed to facilitate clinical and administrative use of evidence-based practices. The design processes underlying this system-mapping of decision points and distillation of performance information at the individual, caseload, and organizational levels-can be implemented to support clinical practice in a wide variety of settings.

Applied Empiricism: Ensuring the Validity of Causal Response to Intervention Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Collier-Meek, Melissa A.; Johnson, Austin H.; Jaffery, Rose

2014-01-01

School personnel make a variety of decisions within multitiered problem-solving frameworks, including the decision to assign a student to group-based support, to design an individualized support plan, or classify a student as eligible for special education. Each decision is founded upon a judgment regarding whether the student has responded to…

Surface transportation weather decision support requirements : user needs and appendices : advanced-integrated decision support using weather information for surface transportation decision makers

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-24

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) : has a responsibility to coordinate and promote projects that will bring the best information on weather to decision makers, in order to improve performance o...

Designing a Decision Support System (DSS) for Academic Library Managers Using Preprogrammed Application Software on a Microcomputer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDonald, Joseph

1986-01-01

Focusing on management decisions in academic libraries, this article compares management information systems (MIS) with decision support systems (DSS) and discusses the decision-making process, information needs of library managers, sources of data, reasons for choosing microcomputer, preprogrammed application software, prototyping a system, and…

User Oriented Techniques to Support Interaction and Decision Making with Large Educational Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Almuhaidib, Saud M. Y.

2007-01-01

Information Technology is developing rapidly and providing policy/decision makers with large amounts of information that require processing and analysis. Decision support systems (DSS) aim to provide tools that not only help such analyses, but enable the decision maker to experiment and simulate the effects of different policies and selection…

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management

Treesearch

Morgan Pence; Tom Zimmerman

2011-01-01

Federal agency policy requires documentation and analysis of all wildland fire response decisions. In the past, planning and decision documentation for fires were completed using multiple unconnected processes, yielding many limitations. In response, interagency fire management executives chartered the development of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)....

Integrated Energy Solutions Research | Integrated Energy Solutions | NREL

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that spans the height and width of the wall they are facing. Decision Science and Informatics Enabling decision makers with rigorous, technology-neutral, data-backed decision support to maximize the impact of security in energy systems through analysis, decision support, advanced energy technology development, and

A Multi-criterial Decision Support System for Forest Management

Treesearch

Donald Nute; Geneho Kim; Walter D. Potter; Mark J. Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Scott Thomasma; Deborah Bennett; Peter Kollasch

1999-01-01

We describe a research project that has as its goal development of a full-featured decision support system for managing forested land to satisfy multiple criteria represented as timber, wildlife, water, ecological, and wildlife objectives. The decision process proposed for what was originally conceived of as a Northeast Decision Model (NED) includes data acquisition,...

Factors affecting adoption and implementation of AHRQ health literacy tools in pharmacies.

PubMed

Shoemaker, Sarah J; Staub-DeLong, Leah; Wasserman, Melanie; Spranca, Mark

2013-01-01

Pharmacies are key sources of medication information for patients, yet few effectively serve patients with low health literacy. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) supported the development of four health literacy tools for pharmacists to address this problem, and to help assess and improve pharmacies' health literacy practices. This study aimed to understand the facilitators and barriers to the adoption and implementation of AHRQ's health literacy tools, particularly a tool to assess a pharmacy's health literacy practices. We conducted a comparative, multiple-case study of eight pharmacies, guided by an adaptation of Rogers's Diffusion of Innovations model. Data were collected and triangulated through interviews, site visit observations, and the review of documents, and analyzed on the factors affecting pharmacies' adoption decisions and implementation of the tools. Factors important to pharmacies' decision to adopt the health literacy tools included awareness of health literacy; a culture of innovation; a change champion; the relative advantage and compatibility of the tools; and an invitation to utilize and receive support to use the tools. The barriers included a lack of leadership support, limited staff time, and a perception of the tools as complex with limited value. For implementation, the primary facilitators were buy-in from leadership, qualified staff, college-affiliated change champions, the adaptability and organization of the tool, and support. Barriers to implementation were limited leadership buy-in, prioritization of other activities, lack of qualified staff, and tool complexity. If pharmacists are provided tools that could ultimately improve their health literacy practices and patient-centered services; and the tools have a clear relative advantage, are simple as well adaptable, and the pharmacists are supported in their efforts - either by colleagues or by collaborating with colleges of pharmacy-then there could be important progress toward achieving the goals of the National Action Plan for Health Literacy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Online Hydrologic Impact Assessment Decision Support System using Internet and Web-GIS Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J.; Engel, B. A.; Harbor, J.

2002-05-01

Urban sprawl and the corresponding land use change from lower intensity uses, such as agriculture and forests, to higher intensity uses including high density residential and commercial has various long- and short-term environment impacts on ground water recharge, water pollution, and storm water drainage. A web-based Spatial Decision Support System, SDSS, for Web-based operation of long-term hydrologic impact modeling and analysis was developed. The system combines a hydrologic model, databases, web-GIS capability and HTML user interfaces to create a comprehensive hydrologic analysis system. The hydrologic model estimates daily direct runoff using the NRCS Curve Number technique and annual nonpoint source pollution loading by an event mean concentration approach. This is supported by a rainfall database with over 30 years of daily rainfall for the continental US. A web-GIS interface and a robust Web-based watershed delineation capability were developed to simplify the spatial data preparation task that is often a barrier to hydrologic model operation. The web-GIS supports browsing of map layers including hydrologic soil groups, roads, counties, streams, lakes and railroads, as well as on-line watershed delineation for any geographic point the user selects with a simple mouse click. The watershed delineation results can also be used to generate data for the hydrologic and water quality models available in the DSS. This system is already being used by city and local government planners for hydrologic impact evaluation of land use change from urbanization, and can be found at http://pasture.ecn.purdue.edu/~watergen/hymaps. This system can assist local community, city and watershed planners, and even professionals when they are examining impacts of land use change on water resources. They can estimate the hydrologic impact of possible land use changes using this system with readily available data supported through the Internet. This system provides a cost effective approach to serve potential users who require easy-to-use tools.

A knowledge-based decision support system for payload scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Floyd, Stephen; Ford, Donnie

1988-01-01

The role that artificial intelligence/expert systems technologies play in the development and implementation of effective decision support systems is illustrated. A recently developed prototype system for supporting the scheduling of subsystems and payloads/experiments for NASA's Space Station program is presented and serves to highlight various concepts. The potential integration of knowledge based systems and decision support systems which has been proposed in several recent articles and presentations is illustrated.

Dairy cow culling strategies: making economical culling decisions.

PubMed

Lehenbauer, T W; Oltjen, J W

1998-01-01

The purpose of this report was to examine important economic elements of culling decisions, to review progress in development of culling decision support systems, and to discern some of the potentially rewarding areas for future research on culling models. Culling decisions have an important influence on the economic performance of the dairy but are often made in a nonprogrammed fashion and based partly on the intuition of the decision maker. The computer technology that is available for dairy herd management has made feasible the use of economic models to support culling decisions. Financial components--including profit, cash flow, and risk--are major economic factors affecting culling decisions. Culling strategies are further influenced by short-term fluctuations in cow numbers as well as by planned herd expansion. Changes in herd size affect the opportunity cost for postponed replacement and may alter the relevance of optimization strategies that assume a fixed herd size. Improvements in model components related to biological factors affecting future cow performance, including milk production, reproductive status, and mastitis, appear to offer the greatest economic potential for enhancing culling decision support systems. The ultimate value of any culling decision support system for developing economic culling strategies will be determined by its results under field conditions.

Impact of vendor computerized physician order entry on patients with renal impairment in community hospitals.

PubMed

Leung, Alexander A; Schiff, Gordon; Keohane, Carol; Amato, Mary; Simon, Steven R; Cadet, Bismarck; Coffey, Michael; Kaufman, Nathan; Zimlichman, Eyal; Seger, Diane L; Yoon, Catherine; Bates, David W

2013-10-01

Adverse drug events (ADEs) are common among hospitalized patients with renal impairment. To determine whether computerized physician order entry (CPOE) systems with clinical decision support capabilities reduce the frequency of renally related ADEs in hospitals. Quasi-experimental study of 1590 adult patients with renal impairment who were admitted to 5 community hospitals in Massachusetts from January 2005 to September 2010, preimplementation and postimplementation of CPOE. Varying levels of clinical decision support, ranging from basic CPOE only (sites 4 and 5), rudimentary clinical decision support (sites 1 and 2), and advanced clinical decision support (site 3). Primary outcome was the rate of preventable ADEs from nephrotoxic and/or renally cleared medications. Similarly, secondary outcomes were the rates of overall ADEs and potential ADEs. There was a 45% decrease in the rate of preventable ADEs following implementation (8.0/100 vs 4.4/100 admissions; P < 0.01), and the impact was related to the level of decision support. Basic CPOE was not associated with any significant benefit (4.6/100 vs 4.3/100 admissions; P = 0.87). There was a nonsignificant decrease in preventable ADEs with rudimentary clinical decision support (9.1/100 vs 6.4/100 admissions; P = 0.22). However, substantial reduction was seen with advanced clinical decision support (12.4/100 vs 0/100 admissions; P = 0.01). Despite these benefits, a significant increase in potential ADEs was found for all systems (55.5/100 vs 136.8/100 admissions; P < 0.01). Vendor-developed CPOE with advanced clinical decision support can reduce the occurrence of preventable ADEs but may be associated with an increase in potential ADEs. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Gathering Real World Evidence with Cluster Analysis for Clinical Decision Support.

PubMed

Xia, Eryu; Liu, Haifeng; Li, Jing; Mei, Jing; Li, Xuejun; Xu, Enliang; Li, Xiang; Hu, Gang; Xie, Guotong; Xu, Meilin

2017-01-01

Clinical decision support systems are information technology systems that assist clinical decision-making tasks, which have been shown to enhance clinical performance. Cluster analysis, which groups similar patients together, aims to separate patient cases into phenotypically heterogenous groups and defining therapeutically homogeneous patient subclasses. Useful as it is, the application of cluster analysis in clinical decision support systems is less reported. Here, we describe the usage of cluster analysis in clinical decision support systems, by first dividing patient cases into similar groups and then providing diagnosis or treatment suggestions based on the group profiles. This integration provides data for clinical decisions and compiles a wide range of clinical practices to inform the performance of individual clinicians. We also include an example usage of the system under the scenario of blood lipid management in type 2 diabetes. These efforts represent a step toward promoting patient-centered care and enabling precision medicine.

Decision support systems for robotic surgery and acute care

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazanzides, Peter

2012-06-01

Doctors must frequently make decisions during medical treatment, whether in an acute care facility, such as an Intensive Care Unit (ICU), or in an operating room. These decisions rely on a various information sources, such as the patient's medical history, preoperative images, and general medical knowledge. Decision support systems can assist by facilitating access to this information when and where it is needed. This paper presents some research eorts that address the integration of information with clinical practice. The example systems include a clinical decision support system (CDSS) for pediatric traumatic brain injury, an augmented reality head- mounted display for neurosurgery, and an augmented reality telerobotic system for minimally-invasive surgery. While these are dierent systems and applications, they share the common theme of providing information to support clinical decisions and actions, whether the actions are performed with the surgeon's own hands or with robotic assistance.

Patient factors that influence clinicians' decision making in self-management support: A clinical vignette study.

PubMed

Bos-Touwen, Irene D; Trappenburg, Jaap C A; van der Wulp, Ineke; Schuurmans, Marieke J; de Wit, Niek J

2017-01-01

Self-management support is an integral part of current chronic care guidelines. The success of self-management interventions varies between individual patients, suggesting a need for tailored self-management support. Understanding the role of patient factors in the current decision making of health professionals can support future tailoring of self-management interventions. The aim of this study is to identify the relative importance of patient factors in health professionals' decision making regarding self-management support. A factorial survey was presented to primary care physicians and nurses. The survey consisted of clinical vignettes (case descriptions), in which 11 patient factors were systematically varied. Each care provider received a set of 12 vignettes. For each vignette, they decided whether they would give this patient self-management support and whether they expected this support to be successful. The associations between respondent decisions and patient factors were explored using ordered logit regression. The survey was completed by 60 general practitioners and 80 nurses. Self-management support was unlikely to be provided in a third of the vignettes. The most important patient factor in the decision to provide self-management support as well as in the expectation that self-management support would be successful was motivation, followed by patient-provider relationship and illness perception. Other factors, such as depression or anxiety, education level, self-efficacy and social support, had a small impact on decisions. Disease, disease severity, knowledge of disease, and age were relatively unimportant factors. This is the first study to explore the relative importance of patient factors in decision making and the expectations regarding the provision of self-management support to chronic disease patients. By far, the most important factor considered was patient's motivation; unmotivated patients were less likely to receive self-management support. Future tailored interventions should incorporate strategies to enhance motivation in unmotivated patients. Furthermore, care providers should be better equipped to promote motivational change in their patients.

Development and field testing of a decision support tool to facilitate shared decision making in contraceptive counseling.

PubMed

Dehlendorf, Christine; Fitzpatrick, Judith; Steinauer, Jody; Swiader, Lawrence; Grumbach, Kevin; Hall, Cara; Kuppermann, Miriam

2017-07-01

We developed and formatively evaluated a tablet-based decision support tool for use by women prior to a contraceptive counseling visit to help them engage in shared decision making regarding method selection. Drawing upon formative work around women's preferences for contraceptive counseling and conceptual understanding of health care decision making, we iteratively developed a storyboard and then digital prototypes, based on best practices for decision support tool development. Pilot testing using both quantitative and qualitative data and cognitive testing was conducted. We obtained feedback from patient and provider advisory groups throughout the development process. Ninety-six percent of women who used the tool in pilot testing reported that it helped them choose a method, and qualitative interviews indicated acceptability of the tool's content and presentation. Compared to the control group, women who used the tool demonstrated trends toward increased likelihood of complete satisfaction with their method. Participant responses to cognitive testing were used in tool refinement. Our decision support tool appears acceptable to women in the family planning setting. Formative evaluation of the tool supports its utility among patients making contraceptive decisions, which can be further evaluated in a randomized controlled trial. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study

PubMed Central

Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. Method: The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. Results: The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. Conclusion: The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures. PMID:29405889

Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study.

PubMed

Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

2018-12-01

Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures.

Testing a simple field method for assessing nitrate removal in riparian zones

Treesearch

Philippe Vidon; Michael G. Dosskey

2008-01-01

Being able to identify riparian sites that function better for nitrate removal from groundwater is critical to using efficiently the riparian zones for water quality management. For this purpose, managers need a method that is quick, inexpensive, and accurate enough to enable effective management decisions. This study assesses the precision and accuracy of a simple...

Cooperative Team Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

team processes, such as identifying motifs of dynamic communication exchanges which goes well beyond simple dyadic and triadic configurations; as well...new metrics and ways to formulate team processes, such as identifying motifs of dynamic communication exchanges which goes well beyond simple dyadic ...sensing, communication , information, and decision networks - Darryl Ahner (AFIT: Air Force Inst Tech) Panel Session: Mathematical Models of

Expected Utility Illustrated: A Graphical Analysis of Gambles with More than Two Possible Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Frederick H.

2010-01-01

The author presents a simple geometric method to graphically illustrate the expected utility from a gamble with more than two possible outcomes. This geometric result gives economics students a simple visual aid for studying expected utility theory and enables them to analyze a richer set of decision problems under uncertainty compared to what…

Predicting the cover-up of dead branches using a simple single regressor equation

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Wayne K. Clatterbuck; E.C. Burkhardt

2007-01-01

Information on the effects of branch diameter on branch occlusion is necessary for building models capable of forecasting the effect of management decisions on tree or log grade. We investigated the relationship between branch size and subsequent branch occlusion through diameter growth with special attention toward the development of a simple single regressor equation...

Extending BPM Environments of Your Choice with Performance Related Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritzsche, Mathias; Picht, Michael; Gilani, Wasif; Spence, Ivor; Brown, John; Kilpatrick, Peter

What-if Simulations have been identified as one solution for business performance related decision support. Such support is especially useful in cases where it can be automatically generated out of Business Process Management (BPM) Environments from the existing business process models and performance parameters monitored from the executed business process instances. Currently, some of the available BPM Environments offer basic-level performance prediction capabilities. However, these functionalities are normally too limited to be generally useful for performance related decision support at business process level. In this paper, an approach is presented which allows the non-intrusive integration of sophisticated tooling for what-if simulations, analytic performance prediction tools, process optimizations or a combination of such solutions into already existing BPM environments. The approach abstracts from process modelling techniques which enable automatic decision support spanning processes across numerous BPM Environments. For instance, this enables end-to-end decision support for composite processes modelled with the Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) on top of existing Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) processes modelled with proprietary languages.

Interprofessional education about patient decision support in specialty care.

PubMed

Politi, Mary C; Pieterse, Arwen H; Truant, Tracy; Borkhoff, Cornelia; Jha, Vikram; Kuhl, Laura; Nicolai, Jennifer; Goss, Claudia

2011-11-01

Specialty care involves services provided by health professionals who focus on treating diseases affecting one body system. In contrast to primary care - aimed at providing continuous, comprehensive care - specialty care often involves intermittent episodes of care focused around specific medical conditions. In addition, it typically includes multiple providers who have unique areas of expertise that are important in supporting patients' care. Interprofessional care involves multiple professionals from different disciplines collaborating to provide an integrated approach to patient care. For patients to experience continuity of care across interprofessional providers, providers need to communicate and maintain a shared sense of responsibility to their patients. In this article, we describe challenges inherent in providing interprofessional patient decision support in specialty care. We propose ways for providers to engage in interprofessional decision support and discuss promising approaches to teaching an interprofessional decision support to specialty care providers. Additional evaluation and empirical research are required before further recommendations can be made about education for interprofessional decision support in specialty care.

The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, Richard L.; Brookshire, David S.; Ganderton, Philip T.

2003-01-01

What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

A simple animal support for convenient weighing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pan, H.P.; Caslick, J.W.; Harke, D.T.; Decker, D.G.

1965-01-01

A simple animal support constructed of web belts to hold skittish pigs for weighing was developed. The support is easily made, noninjurious to the pigs, and compact, facilitating rapid, accurate weighing. With minor modifications, the support can probably be used in weighing other animals.

The Neurobiology of Decision-Making and Responsibility: Reconciling Mechanism and Mindedness

PubMed Central

Shadlen, Michael N.; Roskies, Adina L.

2012-01-01

This essay reviews recent developments in neurobiology which are beginning to expose the mechanisms that underlie some elements of decision-making that bear on attributions of responsibility. These “elements” have been mainly studied in simple perceptual decision tasks, which are performed similarly by humans and non-human primates. Here we consider the role of neural noise, and suggest that thinking about the role of noise can shift the focus of discussions of randomness in decision-making away from its role in enabling alternate possibilities and toward a potential grounding role for responsibility. PMID:22536171

Fast or Frugal, but Not Both: Decision Heuristics under Time Pressure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Love, Bradley C.

2018-01-01

Heuristics are simple, yet effective, strategies that people use to make decisions. Because heuristics do not require all available information, they are thought to be easy to implement and to not tax limited cognitive resources, which has led heuristics to be characterized as fast-and-frugal. We question this monolithic conception of heuristics…

"Many miles to go …": a systematic review of the implementation of patient decision support interventions into routine clinical practice.

PubMed

Elwyn, Glyn; Scholl, Isabelle; Tietbohl, Caroline; Mann, Mala; Edwards, Adrian G K; Clay, Catharine; Légaré, France; van der Weijden, Trudy; Lewis, Carmen L; Wexler, Richard M; Frosch, Dominick L

2013-01-01

Two decades of research has established the positive effect of using patient-targeted decision support interventions: patients gain knowledge, greater understanding of probabilities and increased confidence in decisions. Yet, despite their efficacy, the effectiveness of these decision support interventions in routine practice has yet to be established; widespread adoption has not occurred. The aim of this review was to search for and analyze the findings of published peer-reviewed studies that investigated the success levels of strategies or methods where attempts were made to implement patient-targeted decision support interventions into routine clinical settings. An electronic search strategy was devised and adapted for the following databases: ASSIA, CINAHL, Embase, HMIC, Medline, Medline-in-process, OpenSIGLE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Social Services Abstracts, and the Web of Science. In addition, we used snowballing techniques. Studies were included after dual independent assessment. After assessment, 5322 abstracts yielded 51 articles for consideration. After examining full-texts, 17 studies were included and subjected to data extraction. The approach used in all studies was one where clinicians and their staff used a referral model, asking eligible patients to use decision support. The results point to significant challenges to the implementation of patient decision support using this model, including indifference on the part of health care professionals. This indifference stemmed from a reported lack of confidence in the content of decision support interventions and concern about disruption to established workflows, ultimately contributing to organizational inertia regarding their adoption. It seems too early to make firm recommendations about how best to implement patient decision support into routine practice because approaches that use a 'referral model' consistently report difficulties. We sense that the underlying issues that militate against the use of patient decision support and, more generally, limit the adoption of shared decision making, are under-investigated and under-specified. Future reports from implementation studies could be improved by following guidelines, for example the SQUIRE proposals, and by adopting methods that would be able to go beyond the 'barriers' and 'facilitators' approach to understand more about the nature of professional and organizational resistance to these tools. The lack of incentives that reward the use of these interventions needs to be considered as a significant impediment.

“Many miles to go …”: a systematic review of the implementation of patient decision support interventions into routine clinical practice

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Two decades of research has established the positive effect of using patient-targeted decision support interventions: patients gain knowledge, greater understanding of probabilities and increased confidence in decisions. Yet, despite their efficacy, the effectiveness of these decision support interventions in routine practice has yet to be established; widespread adoption has not occurred. The aim of this review was to search for and analyze the findings of published peer-reviewed studies that investigated the success levels of strategies or methods where attempts were made to implement patient-targeted decision support interventions into routine clinical settings. Methods An electronic search strategy was devised and adapted for the following databases: ASSIA, CINAHL, Embase, HMIC, Medline, Medline-in-process, OpenSIGLE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Social Services Abstracts, and the Web of Science. In addition, we used snowballing techniques. Studies were included after dual independent assessment. Results After assessment, 5322 abstracts yielded 51 articles for consideration. After examining full-texts, 17 studies were included and subjected to data extraction. The approach used in all studies was one where clinicians and their staff used a referral model, asking eligible patients to use decision support. The results point to significant challenges to the implementation of patient decision support using this model, including indifference on the part of health care professionals. This indifference stemmed from a reported lack of confidence in the content of decision support interventions and concern about disruption to established workflows, ultimately contributing to organizational inertia regarding their adoption. Conclusions It seems too early to make firm recommendations about how best to implement patient decision support into routine practice because approaches that use a ‘referral model’ consistently report difficulties. We sense that the underlying issues that militate against the use of patient decision support and, more generally, limit the adoption of shared decision making, are under-investigated and under-specified. Future reports from implementation studies could be improved by following guidelines, for example the SQUIRE proposals, and by adopting methods that would be able to go beyond the ‘barriers’ and ‘facilitators’ approach to understand more about the nature of professional and organizational resistance to these tools. The lack of incentives that reward the use of these interventions needs to be considered as a significant impediment. PMID:24625083

NASA E-DECIDER Rapid Disaster Decision Support Products

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-09-03

A NASA-funded disaster decision support system, provided a number of rapid response map data products to decision makers at the California Earthquake Clearinghouse following its activation for the Aug. 24, 2014 magnitude 6.0 earthquake in Napa, California

Decision support tools to support the operations of traffic management centers (TMC)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-31

The goal of this project is to develop decision support tools to support traffic management operations based on collected intelligent transportation system (ITS) data. The project developments are in accordance with the needs of traffic management ce...

Decision support for the integrated restoration and protection strategy of the Forest Service, Northern Region

Treesearch

Keith Reynolds; Barry Bollenbacher; Chip Fisher; Melissa Hart; Mary Manning; Eric Henderson; Bruce Sims

2016-01-01

This report documents a decision-support process developed in the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Region to assess management opportunities as part of an ecosystem-based approach to management that emphasizes ecological resilience. The decision-support system described in this work implements what is known as the Integrated Restoration and...

System for selecting relevant information for decision support.

PubMed

Kalina, Jan; Seidl, Libor; Zvára, Karel; Grünfeldová, Hana; Slovák, Dalibor; Zvárová, Jana

2013-01-01

We implemented a prototype of a decision support system called SIR which has a form of a web-based classification service for diagnostic decision support. The system has the ability to select the most relevant variables and to learn a classification rule, which is guaranteed to be suitable also for high-dimensional measurements. The classification system can be useful for clinicians in primary care to support their decision-making tasks with relevant information extracted from any available clinical study. The implemented prototype was tested on a sample of patients in a cardiological study and performs an information extraction from a high-dimensional set containing both clinical and gene expression data.

Grand Challenges in Clinical Decision Support v10

PubMed Central

Sittig, Dean F.; Wright, Adam; Osheroff, Jerome A.; Middleton, Blackford; Teich, Jonathan M.; Ash, Joan S.; Campbell, Emily; Bates, David W.

2008-01-01

There is a pressing need for high-quality, effective means of designing, developing, presenting, implementing, evaluating, and maintaining all types of clinical decision support capabilities for clinicians, patients and consumers. Using an iterative, consensus-building process we identified a rank-ordered list of the top 10 grand challenges in clinical decision support. This list was created to educate and inspire researchers, developers, funders, and policy-makers. The list of challenges in order of importance that they be solved if patients and organizations are to begin realizing the fullest benefits possible of these systems consists of: Improve the human-computer interface; Disseminate best practices in CDS design, development, and implementation; Summarize patient-level information; Prioritize and filter recommendations to the user; Create an architecture for sharing executable CDS modules and services; Combine recommendations for patients with co-morbidities; Prioritize CDS content development and implementation; Create internet-accessible clinical decision support repositories; Use freetext information to drive clinical decision support; Mine large clinical databases to create new CDS. Identification of solutions to these challenges is critical if clinical decision support is to achieve its potential and improve the quality, safety and efficiency of healthcare. PMID:18029232

A medical informatics perspective on clinical decision support systems. Findings from the yearbook 2013 section on decision support.

PubMed

Bouaud, J; Lamy, J-B

2013-01-01

To summarize excellent research and to select best papers published in 2012 in the field of computer-based decision support in healthcare. A bibliographic search focused on clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) and computer provider order entry was performed, followed by a double-blind literature review. The review process yielded six papers, illustrating various aspects of clinical decision support. The first paper is a systematic review of CDSS intervention trials in real settings, and considers different types of possible outcomes. It emphasizes the heterogeneity of studies and confirms that CDSSs can improve process measures but that evidence lacks for other types of outcomes, especially clinical or economic. Four other papers tackle the safety of drug prescribing and show that CDSSs can be efficient in reducing prescription errors. The sixth paper exemplifies the growing role of ontological resources which can be used for several applications including decision support. CDSS research has to be continuously developed and assessed. The wide variety of systems and of interventions limits the understanding of factors of success of CDSS implementations. A standardization in the characterization of CDSSs and of intervention trial reporting will help to overcome this obstacle.

HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

EPA Science Inventory

NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

Decision Support Framework (DSF) For Evaluating Planned Land And Resource Use Decisions: Hypothetical Application Of The DSF To Address Nutrient Loads In The Florida Keys

EPA Science Inventory

The mission of ORD's Ecosystme Services Research Program (ESRP) is to provide the information and methods needed by decision-makers to assess the benefits of ecosystem goods and services to human well-being for inclusion in management alternatives. The Decision Support Framework...

Decision support systems in health economics.

PubMed

Quaglini, S; Dazzi, L; Stefanelli, M; Barosi, G; Marchetti, M

1999-08-01

This article describes a system addressed to different health care professionals for building, using, and sharing decision support systems for resource allocation. The system deals with selected areas, namely the choice of diagnostic tests, the therapy planning, and the instrumentation purchase. Decision support is based on decision-analytic models, incorporating an explicit knowledge representation of both the medical domain knowledge and the economic evaluation theory. Application models are built on top of meta-models, that are used as guidelines for making explicit both the cost and effectiveness components. This approach improves the transparency and soundness of the collaborative decision-making process and facilitates the result interpretation.

A Synthesis Of Knowledge About Caregiver Decision Making Finds Gaps In Support For Those Who Care For Aging Loved Ones.

PubMed

Garvelink, Mirjam M; Ngangue, Patrice A G; Adekpedjou, Rheda; Diouf, Ndeye T; Goh, Larissa; Blair, Louisa; Légaré, France

2016-04-01

We conducted a mixed-methods knowledge synthesis to assess the effectiveness of interventions to improve caregivers' involvement in decision making with seniors, and to describe caregivers' experiences of decision making in the absence of interventions. We analyzed forty-nine qualitative, fourteen quantitative, and three mixed-methods studies. The qualitative studies indicated that caregivers had unmet needs for information, discussions of values and needs, and decision support, which led to negative sentiments after decision making. Our results indicate that there have been insufficient quantitative evaluations of interventions to involve caregivers in decision making with seniors and that the evaluations that do exist found few clinically significant effects. Elements of usual care that received positive evaluations were the availability of a decision coach and a supportive decision-making environment. Additional rigorously evaluated interventions are needed to help caregivers be more involved in decision making with seniors. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Visualization support for risk-informed decision making when planning and managing software developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

2005-01-01

Key decisions are made in the early stages of planning and management of software developments. The information basis for these decisions is often a mix of analogy with past developments, and the best judgments of domain experts. Visualization of this information can support to such decision making by clarifying the status of the information and yielding insights into the ramifications of that information vis-a-vis decision alternatives.

XWeB: The XML Warehouse Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahboubi, Hadj; Darmont, Jérôme

With the emergence of XML as a standard for representing business data, new decision support applications are being developed. These XML data warehouses aim at supporting On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) operations that manipulate irregular XML data. To ensure feasibility of these new tools, important performance issues must be addressed. Performance is customarily assessed with the help of benchmarks. However, decision support benchmarks do not currently support XML features. In this paper, we introduce the XML Warehouse Benchmark (XWeB), which aims at filling this gap. XWeB derives from the relational decision support benchmark TPC-H. It is mainly composed of a test data warehouse that is based on a unified reference model for XML warehouses and that features XML-specific structures, and its associate XQuery decision support workload. XWeB's usage is illustrated by experiments on several XML database management systems.

Decision making by relatives about brain death organ donation: an integrative review.

PubMed

de Groot, Jack; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra; Hoedemaekers, Cornelia; Hoitsma, Andries; Smeets, Wim; van Leeuwen, Evert

2012-06-27

Deciding about the organ donation of one's brain-dead beloved often occurs in an unexpected and delicate situation. We explored the decision making of the relatives of potential brain-dead donors, its evaluation, and the factors influencing decision making. We used the integrative review method. Our search included 10 databases. Inclusion criteria were presence of the donation request or the subsequent decision process. Three authors independently assessed the eligibility of identified articles. Content analysis of 70 included articles led to three themes: decision, evaluation, and support. We extracted results and recommendations concerning these three themes. The timing of the request and understandable information influence the decision. The relatives evaluate their decision differently: in case of refusal, approximately one third regret their decision, and in case of consent, approximately one tenth mention regret. The relatives are often ambivalent about their values (protection, altruism, and respect) and the deceased's wishes, not wanting additional suffering either for their beloved or for themselves. Support is mainly focused on increasing consent rates and less on satisfaction with the decision. Evaluation of decision making by the relatives of potential brain-dead donors reveals possibilities for improving the decision process. Special skills of the requester, attention to the circumstances, and unconditional support for the relatives might prevent the relatives' regret about refusal and unnecessary loss of organs. We hypothesize that support in exploring the relatives' values and the deceased's wishes can lead to stable decisions. This hypothesis deserves further investigation.

Andriod Device-Based Cervical Cancer Screening for Resource-Poor Settings.

PubMed

Kudva, Vidya; Prasad, Keerthana; Guruvare, Shyamala

2018-05-18

Visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) is an effective, affordable and simple test for cervical cancer screening in resource-poor settings. But considerable expertise is needed to differentiate cancerous lesions from normal lesions, which is lacking in developing countries. Many studies have attempted automation of cervical cancer detection from cervix images acquired during the VIA process. These studies used images acquired through colposcopy or cervicography. However, colposcopy is expensive and hence is not feasible as a screening tool in resource-poor settings. Cervicography uses a digital camera to acquire cervix images which are subsequently sent to experts for evaluation. Hence, cervicography does not provide a real-time decision of whether the cervix is normal or not, during the VIA examination. In case the cervix is found to be abnormal, the patient may be referred to a hospital for further evaluation using Pap smear and/or biopsy. An android device with an inbuilt app to acquire images and provide instant results would be an obvious choice in resource-poor settings. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for analysis of cervix images acquired using an android device, which can be used for the development of decision support system to provide instant decision during cervical cancer screening. This algorithm offers an accuracy of 97.94%, a sensitivity of 99.05% and specificity of 97.16%.

Removable partial dentures vs overdentures in children with ectodermal dysplasia: two case reports.

PubMed

Maroulakos, G; Artopoulou, I I; Angelopoulou, M V; Emmanouil, D

2016-06-01

Ectodermal dysplasia (ED) represents a disorder group characterised by abnormal development of the ectodermal derivatives. Removable partial dentures (RPD), complete dentures (CD) or overdentures (OD) are most often the treatment of choice for young affected patients. Prosthetic intervention is of utmost importance in the management of ED patients, as it resolves problems associated with functional, aesthetic, and psychological issues, and improves a patient's quality of life. However, few studies present the principles and guidelines that can assist in the decision-making process of the most appropriate removable prosthesis. The purpose of this study was to suggest a simple treatment decision-making algorithm for selecting an effective and individualised rehabilitative treatment plan, considering different parameters. The cases and treatment of two young ED patients are described and each one was treated with either RPDs or ODs. Periodic recalls were employed to manage problems, and monitor the changes associated with occlusion and fit of the prostheses in relation to each patient's growth. Both patients were followed up for more than 2 years and reported significant improvement in their appearance, masticatory function, and social behaviour as a result of the prosthetic rehabilitation. The main factors guiding the decision process towards the choice of an RPD or an OD are the presence of posterior natural teeth, facial aesthetics, lip support, number and size of existing natural teeth, and the occlusal vertical dimension.

Integrating conflict analysis and consensus reaching in a decision support system for water resource management.

PubMed

Giordano, R; Passarella, G; Uricchio, V F; Vurro, M

2007-07-01

The importance of shared decision processes in water management derives from the awareness of the inadequacy of traditional--i.e. engineering--approaches in dealing with complex and ill-structured problems. It is becoming increasingly obvious that traditional problem solving and decision support techniques, based on optimisation and factual knowledge, have to be combined with stakeholder based policy design and implementation. The aim of our research is the definition of an integrated decision support system for consensus achievement (IDSS-C) able to support a participative decision-making process in all its phases: problem definition and structuring, identification of the possible alternatives, formulation of participants' judgments, and consensus achievement. Furthermore, the IDSS-C aims at structuring, i.e. systematising the knowledge which has emerged during the participative process in order to make it comprehensible for the decision-makers and functional for the decision process. Problem structuring methods (PSM) and multi-group evaluation methods (MEM) have been integrated in the IDSS-C. PSM are used to support the stakeholders in providing their perspective of the problem and to elicit their interests and preferences, while MEM are used to define not only the degree of consensus for each alternative, highlighting those where the agreement is high, but also the consensus label for each alternative and the behaviour of individuals during the participative decision-making. The IDSS-C is applied experimentally to a decision process regarding the use of treated wastewater for agricultural irrigation in the Apulia Region (southern Italy).

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Formal Logic and Flowchart for Diagnosis Validity Verification and Inclusion in Clinical Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sosa, M.; Grundel, L.; Simini, F.

2016-04-01

Logical reasoning is part of medical practice since its origins. Modern Medicine has included information-intensive tools to refine diagnostics and treatment protocols. We are introducing formal logic teaching in Medical School prior to Clinical Internship, to foster medical practice. Two simple examples (Acute Myocardial Infarction and Diabetes Mellitus) are given in terms of formal logic expression and truth tables. Flowcharts of both diagnostic processes help understand the procedures and to validate them logically. The particularity of medical information is that it is often accompanied by “missing data” which suggests to adapt formal logic to a “three state” logic in the future. Medical Education must include formal logic to understand complex protocols and best practices, prone to mutual interactions.

Clinical Decision Support to Implement CYP2D6 Drug-Gene Interaction.

PubMed

Caraballo, Pedro J; Parkulo, Mark; Blair, David; Elliott, Michelle; Schultz, Cloann; Sutton, Joseph; Rao, Padma; Bruflat, Jamie; Bleimeyer, Robert; Crooks, John; Gabrielson, Donald; Nicholson, Wayne; Rohrer Vitek, Carolyn; Wix, Kelly; Bielinski, Suzette J; Pathak, Jyotishman; Kullo, Iftikhar

2015-01-01

The level of CYP2D6 metabolic activity can be predicted by pharmacogenomic testing, and concomitant use of clinical decision support has the potential to prevent adverse effects from those drugs metabolized by this enzyme. Our initial findings after implementation of clinical decision support alerts integrated in the electronic health records suggest high feasibility, but also identify important challenges.

Decision-support systems for natural-hazards and land-management issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura; Forney, William; Byrd, Kristin

2012-01-01

Scientists at the USGS Western Geographic Science Center are developing decision-support systems (DSSs) for natural-hazards and land-management issues. DSSs are interactive computer-based tools that use data and models to help identify and solve problems. These systems can provide crucial support to policymakers, planners, and communities for making better decisions about long-term natural hazards mitigation and land-use planning.

Automated Decision-Support Technologies for Prehospital Care of Trauma Casualties

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

insensitive to prehospital major traumatic pathology . Second, there are numerous potential sources of decision-support failure, and it is not possible...been speculated to be insensitive to prehospital major traumatic pathology . Second, there are numerous potential sources of decision-support failure...the soldiers, and the diagnostic value of prehospital vital signs for major traumatic pathologies has often been questioned [4-8]. Indeed, our

Unpacking buyer-seller differences in valuation from experience: A cognitive modeling approach.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Scheibehenne, Benjamin

2017-12-01

People often indicate a higher price for an object when they own it (i.e., as sellers) than when they do not (i.e., as buyers)-a phenomenon known as the endowment effect. We develop a cognitive modeling approach to formalize, disentangle, and compare alternative psychological accounts (e.g., loss aversion, loss attention, strategic misrepresentation) of such buyer-seller differences in pricing decisions of monetary lotteries. To also be able to test possible buyer-seller differences in memory and learning, we study pricing decisions from experience, obtained with the sampling paradigm, where people learn about a lottery's payoff distribution from sequential sampling. We first formalize different accounts as models within three computational frameworks (reinforcement learning, instance-based learning theory, and cumulative prospect theory), and then fit the models to empirical selling and buying prices. In Study 1 (a reanalysis of published data with hypothetical decisions), models assuming buyer-seller differences in response bias (implementing a strategic-misrepresentation account) performed best; models assuming buyer-seller differences in choice sensitivity or memory (implementing a loss-attention account) generally fared worst. In a new experiment involving incentivized decisions (Study 2), models assuming buyer-seller differences in both outcome sensitivity (as proposed by a loss-aversion account) and response bias performed best. In both Study 1 and 2, the models implemented in cumulative prospect theory performed best. Model recovery studies validated our cognitive modeling approach, showing that the models can be distinguished rather well. In summary, our analysis supports a loss-aversion account of the endowment effect, but also reveals a substantial contribution of simple response bias.

Decision Support Framework (DSF) Team Research Implementation Plan

EPA Science Inventory

The mission of ORD's Ecosystem Services Research Program (ESRP) is to provide the information and methods needed by decision-makers to assess the benefits of ecosystem goods and services to human well-being for inclusion in management alternatives. The Decision Support Framework...

Decision Modeling for Socio-Cultural Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

REFERENCES [1] Malczewski, J. (1999) GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis . John Wiley and Sons, New York. [2] Ehrgott, M., and Gandibleux, X. (Eds...up, nonexclusive, irrevocable worldwide license to use , modify, reproduce, release, perform, display, or disclose the work by or on behalf of the...criteria decision analysis (MCDA), into a geospatial environment to support decision making for campaign management. Our development approach supports

Not just for consumers: context effects are fundamental to decision making.

PubMed

Trueblood, Jennifer S; Brown, Scott D; Heathcote, Andrew; Busemeyer, Jerome R

2013-06-01

Context effects--preference changes that depend on the availability of other options--have attracted a great deal of attention among consumer researchers studying high-level decision tasks. In the experiments reported here, we showed that these effects also arise in simple perceptual-decision-making tasks. This finding casts doubt on explanations limited to consumer choice and high-level decisions, and it indicates that context effects may be amenable to a general explanation at the level of the basic decision process. We demonstrated for the first time that three important context effects from the preferential-choice literature--similarity, attraction, and compromise effects--all occurred within a single perceptual-decision task. Not only do our results challenge previous explanations for context effects proposed by consumer researchers, but they also challenge the choice rules assumed in theories of perceptual decision making.

Treatment decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ: A mixed methods systematic review of women's experiences and information needs.

PubMed

Rutherford, Claudia; Mercieca-Bebber, Rebecca; Butow, Phyllis; Wu, Jenny Liang; King, Madeleine T

2017-09-01

Decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is complex due to the heterogeneity of the disease. This study aimed to understand women's experience of making treatment decisions for DCIS, their information and support needs, and factors that influenced decisions. We searched six electronic databases, conference proceedings, and key authors. Two reviewers independently applied inclusion and quality criteria, and extracted findings. Thematic analysis was used to combine and summarise findings. We identified six themes and 28 subthemes from 18 studies. Women with DCIS have knowledge deficits about DCIS, experience anxiety related to information given at diagnosis and the complexity of decision-making, and have misconceptions regarding risks and outcomes of treatment. Women's decisions are influenced by their understanding of risk, the clinical features of their DCIS, and the benefits and harms of treatment options. Women are dissatisfied with the decisional support available. Informed and shared decision-making in this complex decision setting requires clear communication of information specific to DCIS and individual's, as well as decision support for patients and clinicians. This approach would educate patients and clinicians, and assist clinicians in supporting patients to an evidence-based treatment plan that aligns with individual values and pReferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prioritization of information using decision support systems for seismic risk in Bucharest city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armas, Iuliana; Gheorghe, Diana

2014-05-01

Nowadays, because of the ever increasing volume of information, policymakers are faced with decision making problems. Achieving an objective and suitable decision making may become a challenge. In such situations decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. DSS can assist in the decision making process, offering support on how a decision should be made, rather than what decision should be made (Simon, 1979). This in turn potentially involves a huge number of stakeholders and criteria. Regarding seismic risk, Bucharest City is highly vulnerable (Mandrescu et al., 2007). The aim of this study is to implement a spatial decision support system in order to secure a suitable shelter in case of an earthquake occurrence in the historical centre of Bucharest City. In case of a seismic risk, a shelter is essential for sheltering people who lost their homes or whose homes are in danger of collapsing while people at risk receive first aid in the post-disaster phase. For the present study, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The methodology included structuring the problem by creating a decision tree, standardizing and weighting of the criteria. The results showed that the most suitable buildings are Tania Hotel, Hanul lui Manuc, The National Bank of Romania, The Romanian Commercial Bank and The National History Museum.

Statistical Mechanics of the US Supreme Court

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Edward D.; Broedersz, Chase P.; Bialek, William

2015-07-01

We build simple models for the distribution of voting patterns in a group, using the Supreme Court of the United States as an example. The maximum entropy model consistent with the observed pairwise correlations among justices' votes, an Ising spin glass, agrees quantitatively with the data. While all correlations (perhaps surprisingly) are positive, the effective pairwise interactions in the spin glass model have both signs, recovering the intuition that ideologically opposite justices negatively influence each another. Despite the competing interactions, a strong tendency toward unanimity emerges from the model, organizing the voting patterns in a relatively simple "energy landscape." Besides unanimity, other energy minima in this landscape, or maxima in probability, correspond to prototypical voting states, such as the ideological split or a tightly correlated, conservative core. The model correctly predicts the correlation of justices with the majority and gives us a measure of their influence on the majority decision. These results suggest that simple models, grounded in statistical physics, can capture essential features of collective decision making quantitatively, even in a complex political context.

Analytical model for minority games with evolutionary learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Daniel; Méndez, Vicenç; Llebot, Josep E.; Hernández, Germán A.

2010-06-01

In a recent work [D. Campos, J.E. Llebot, V. Méndez, Theor. Popul. Biol. 74 (2009) 16] we have introduced a biological version of the Evolutionary Minority Game that tries to reproduce the intraspecific competition for limited resources in an ecosystem. In comparison with the complex decision-making mechanisms used in standard Minority Games, only two extremely simple strategies ( juveniles and adults) are accessible to the agents. Complexity is introduced instead through an evolutionary learning rule that allows younger agents to learn taking better decisions. We find that this game shows many of the typical properties found for Evolutionary Minority Games, like self-segregation behavior or the existence of an oscillation phase for a certain range of the parameter values. However, an analytical treatment becomes much easier in our case, taking advantage of the simple strategies considered. Using a model consisting of a simple dynamical system, the phase diagram of the game (which differentiates three phases: adults crowd, juveniles crowd and oscillations) is reproduced.

Conflict when making decisions about dialysis modality.

PubMed

Chen, Nien-Hsin; Lin, Yu-Ping; Liang, Shu-Yuan; Tung, Heng-Hsin; Tsay, Shiow-Luan; Wang, Tsae-Jyy

2018-01-01

To explore decisional conflict and its influencing factors on choosing dialysis modality in patients with end-stage renal diseases. The influencing factors investigated include demographics, predialysis education, dialysis knowledge, decision self-efficacy and social support. Making dialysis modality decisions can be challenging for patients with end-stage renal diseases; there are pros and cons to both haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis. Patients are often uncertain as to which one will be the best alternative for them. This decisional conflict increases the likelihood of making a decision that is not based on the patient's values or preferences and may result in undesirable postdecisional consequences. Addressing factors predisposing patients to decisional conflict helps to facilitate informed decision-making and then to improve healthcare quality. A predictive correlational cross-sectional study design was used. Seventy patients were recruited from the outpatient dialysis clinics of two general hospitals in Taiwan. Data were collected with study questionnaires, including questions on demographics, dialysis modality and predialysis education, the Dialysis Knowledge Scale, the Decision Self-Efficacy scale, the Social Support Scale, and the Decisional Conflict Scale. The mean score on the Decisional Conflict Scale was 29.26 (SD = 22.18). Decision self-efficacy, dialysis modality, predialysis education, professional support and dialysis knowledge together explained 76.4% of the variance in decisional conflict. Individuals who had lower decision self-efficacy, did not receive predialysis education on both haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, had lower dialysis knowledge and perceived lower professional support reported higher decisional conflict on choosing dialysis modality. When providing decisional support to predialysis stage patients, practitioners need to increase patients' decision self-efficacy, provide both haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis predialysis education, increase dialysis knowledge and provide professional support. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pilot study of a point-of-use decision support tool for cancer clinical trials eligibility.

PubMed

Breitfeld, P P; Weisburd, M; Overhage, J M; Sledge, G; Tierney, W M

1999-01-01

Many adults with cancer are not enrolled in clinical trials because caregivers do not have the time to match the patient's clinical findings with varying eligibility criteria associated with multiple trials for which the patient might be eligible. The authors developed a point-of-use portable decision support tool (DS-TRIEL) to automate this matching process. The support tool consists of a hand-held computer with a programmable relational database. A two-level hierarchic decision framework was used for the identification of eligible subjects for two open breast cancer clinical trials. The hand-held computer also provides protocol consent forms and schemas to further help the busy oncologist. This decision support tool and the decision framework on which it is based could be used for multiple trials and different cancer sites.

Pilot Study of a Point-of-use Decision Support Tool for Cancer Clinical Trials Eligibility

PubMed Central

Breitfeld, Philip P.; Weisburd, Marina; Overhage, J. Marc; Sledge, George; Tierney, William M.

1999-01-01

Many adults with cancer are not enrolled in clinical trials because caregivers do not have the time to match the patient's clinical findings with varying eligibility criteria associated with multiple trials for which the patient might be eligible. The authors developed a point-of-use portable decision support tool (DS-TRIEL) to automate this matching process. The support tool consists of a hand-held computer with a programmable relational database. A two-level hierarchic decision framework was used for the identification of eligible subjects for two open breast cancer clinical trials. The hand-held computer also provides protocol consent forms and schemas to further help the busy oncologist. This decision support tool and the decision framework on which it is based could be used for multiple trials and different cancer sites. PMID:10579605

Do Not Fear Your Opponent: Suboptimal Changes of a Prevention Strategy when Facing Stronger Opponents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slezak, Diego Fernandez; Sigman, Mariano

2012-01-01

The time spent making a decision and its quality define a widely studied trade-off. Some models suggest that the time spent is set to optimize reward, as verified empirically in simple-decision making experiments. However, in a more complex perspective compromising components of regulation focus, ambitions, fear, risk and social variables,…

Economic Analysis of Continued Education by Holders of Short-Cycle Technical Diplomas in French Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gendron, Benedicte

2006-01-01

In a context of fierce competition in the labour market and employment system, the decision to continue studying after completing French short-cycle higher vocational education must be distinguished from the simple individual decision for optimum allocation of resources postulated by standard human-resource theory. It has much more to do with a…

Seven Reliability Indices for High-Stakes Decision Making: Description, Selection, and Simple Calculation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Stacey L.; Vannest, Kimberly J.; Davis, John L.

2011-01-01

The reliability of data is a critical issue in decision-making for practitioners in the school. Percent Agreement and Cohen's kappa are the two most widely reported indices of inter-rater reliability, however, a recent Monte Carlo study on the reliability of multi-category scales found other indices to be more trustworthy given the type of data…

Proof in the Pattern: Librarians Follow the Corporate Sector toward More Data-Driven Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicholson, Scott

2006-01-01

As demands on libraries continue to grow, outpacing budget increases, more librarians are forced to make difficult decisions about what materials and services stay and go. Charles R. McClure has written that many librarians use an "adhocracy" method to make these decisions, relying on no data or simple aggregates in determining a course of action.…

Working dogs cooperate among one another by generalised reciprocity.

PubMed

Gfrerer, Nastassja; Taborsky, Michael

2017-03-06

Cooperation by generalised reciprocity implies that individuals apply the decision rule "help anyone if helped by someone". This mechanism has been shown to generate evolutionarily stable levels of cooperation, but as yet it is unclear how widely this cooperation mechanism is applied among animals. Dogs (Canis familiaris) are highly social animals with considerable cognitive potential and the ability to differentiate between individual social partners. But although dogs can solve complex problems, they may use simple rules for behavioural decisions. Here we show that dogs trained in an instrumental cooperative task to provide food to a social partner help conspecifics more often after receiving help from a dog before. Remarkably, in so doing they show no distinction between partners that had helped them before and completely unfamiliar conspecifics. Apparently, dogs use the simple decision rule characterizing generalised reciprocity, although they are probably capable of using the more complex decision rule of direct reciprocity: "help someone who has helped you". However, generalized reciprocity involves lower information processing costs and is therefore a cheaper cooperation strategy. Our results imply that generalised reciprocity might be applied more commonly than direct reciprocity also in other mutually cooperating animals.

Working dogs cooperate among one another by generalised reciprocity

PubMed Central

Gfrerer, Nastassja; Taborsky, Michael

2017-01-01

Cooperation by generalised reciprocity implies that individuals apply the decision rule “help anyone if helped by someone”. This mechanism has been shown to generate evolutionarily stable levels of cooperation, but as yet it is unclear how widely this cooperation mechanism is applied among animals. Dogs (Canis familiaris) are highly social animals with considerable cognitive potential and the ability to differentiate between individual social partners. But although dogs can solve complex problems, they may use simple rules for behavioural decisions. Here we show that dogs trained in an instrumental cooperative task to provide food to a social partner help conspecifics more often after receiving help from a dog before. Remarkably, in so doing they show no distinction between partners that had helped them before and completely unfamiliar conspecifics. Apparently, dogs use the simple decision rule characterizing generalised reciprocity, although they are probably capable of using the more complex decision rule of direct reciprocity: “help someone who has helped you”. However, generalized reciprocity involves lower information processing costs and is therefore a cheaper cooperation strategy. Our results imply that generalised reciprocity might be applied more commonly than direct reciprocity also in other mutually cooperating animals. PMID:28262722

Response threshold variance as a basis of collective rationality

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Tatsuhiro

2017-01-01

Determining the optimal choice among multiple options is necessary in various situations, and the collective rationality of groups has recently become a major topic of interest. Social insects are thought to make such optimal choices by collecting individuals' responses relating to an option's value (=a quality-graded response). However, this behaviour cannot explain the collective rationality of brains because neurons can make only ‘yes/no’ responses on the basis of the response threshold. Here, we elucidate the basic mechanism underlying the collective rationality of such simple units and show that an ant species uses this mechanism. A larger number of units respond ‘yes’ to the best option available to a collective decision-maker using only the yes/no mechanism; thus, the best option is always selected by majority decision. Colonies of the ant Myrmica kotokui preferred the better option in a binary choice experiment. The preference of a colony was demonstrated by the workers, which exhibited variable thresholds between two options' qualities. Our results demonstrate how a collective decision-maker comprising simple yes/no judgement units achieves collective rationality without using quality-graded responses. This mechanism has broad applicability to collective decision-making in brain neurons, swarm robotics and human societies. PMID:28484636