simple linear trend: Topics by Science.gov

Sample records for simple linear trend

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.
Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

PubMed Central

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641
Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.
Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.
Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347
Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Some Questions Concerning the Standards of External Examinations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahn, Michael J.

1990-01-01

Variance as a function of time is described for the Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicate's examination standards, with emphasis on the performance of candidates from Botswana and Zimbabwe. Results demonstrate the value of simple linear modeling in extracting performance trends for a range of subjects over time across six countries. (TJH)
Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.
Techniques of data analysis and presentation for planners of the metropolitan environment

Treesearch

Joelee Normand

1977-01-01

Relationships between the characteristics of the physical environment of a metropolitan area and the activities of its human inhabitants can be used to predict probable future dynamic trends, both demographic and environmental. Using simple linear regression, we were able to highlight several dynamic features of the metropolitan area of Tulsa, Oklahoma. Computer movies...
Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.
Simplified large African carnivore density estimators from track indices.

PubMed

Winterbach, Christiaan W; Ferreira, Sam M; Funston, Paul J; Somers, Michael J

2016-01-01

The range, population size and trend of large carnivores are important parameters to assess their status globally and to plan conservation strategies. One can use linear models to assess population size and trends of large carnivores from track-based surveys on suitable substrates. The conventional approach of a linear model with intercept may not intercept at zero, but may fit the data better than linear model through the origin. We assess whether a linear regression through the origin is more appropriate than a linear regression with intercept to model large African carnivore densities and track indices. We did simple linear regression with intercept analysis and simple linear regression through the origin and used the confidence interval for ß in the linear model y = αx + ß, Standard Error of Estimate, Mean Squares Residual and Akaike Information Criteria to evaluate the models. The Lion on Clay and Low Density on Sand models with intercept were not significant ( P > 0.05). The other four models with intercept and the six models thorough origin were all significant ( P < 0.05). The models using linear regression with intercept all included zero in the confidence interval for ß and the null hypothesis that ß = 0 could not be rejected. All models showed that the linear model through the origin provided a better fit than the linear model with intercept, as indicated by the Standard Error of Estimate and Mean Square Residuals. Akaike Information Criteria showed that linear models through the origin were better and that none of the linear models with intercept had substantial support. Our results showed that linear regression through the origin is justified over the more typical linear regression with intercept for all models we tested. A general model can be used to estimate large carnivore densities from track densities across species and study areas. The formula observed track density = 3.26 × carnivore density can be used to estimate densities of large African carnivores using track counts on sandy substrates in areas where carnivore densities are 0.27 carnivores/100 km 2 or higher. To improve the current models, we need independent data to validate the models and data to test for non-linear relationship between track indices and true density at low densities.
Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.
Estimating population trends with a linear model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Collins, Brian D.; Morrison, R.I.G.

2003-01-01

We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.
Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.
Trajectories of eGFR decline over a four year period in an Indigenous Australian population at high risk of CKD-the eGFR follow up study.

PubMed

Barzi, Federica; Jones, Graham R D; Hughes, Jaquelyne T; Lawton, Paul D; Hoy, Wendy; O'Dea, Kerin; Jerums, George; MacIsaac, Richard J; Cass, Alan; Maple-Brown, Louise J

2018-03-01

Being able to estimate kidney decline accurately is particularly important in Indigenous Australians, a population at increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease and end stage kidney disease. The aim of this analysis was to explore the trend of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over a four year period using multiple local creatinine measures, compared with estimates derived using centrally-measured enzymatic creatinine and with estimates derived using only two local measures. The eGFR study comprised a cohort of over 600 Aboriginal Australian participants recruited from over twenty sites in urban, regional and remote Australia across five strata of health, diabetes and kidney function. Trajectories of eGFR were explored on 385 participants with at least three local creatinine records using graphical methods that compared the linear trends fitted using linear mixed models with non-linear trends fitted using fractional polynomial equations. Temporal changes of local creatinine were also characterized using group-based modelling. Analyses were stratified by eGFR (<60; 60-89; 90-119 and ≥120ml/min/1.73m 2 ) and albuminuria categories (<3mg/mmol; 3-30mg/mmol; >30mg/mmol). Mean age of the participants was 48years, 64% were female and the median follow-up was 3years. Decline of eGFR was accurately estimated using simple linear regression models and locally measured creatinine was as good as centrally measured creatinine at predicting kidney decline in people with an eGFR<60 and an eGFR 60-90ml/min/1.73m 2 with albuminuria. Analyses showed that one baseline and one follow-up locally measured creatinine may be sufficient to estimate short term (up to four years) kidney function decline. The greatest yearly decline was estimated in those with eGFR 60-90 and macro-albuminuria: -6.21 (-8.20, -4.23) ml/min/1.73m 2 . Short term estimates of kidney function decline can be reliably derived using an easy to implement and simple to interpret linear mixed effect model. Locally measured creatinine did not differ to centrally measured creatinine, thus is an accurate cost-efficient and timely means to monitoring kidney function progression. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
On summary measure analysis of linear trend repeated measures data: performance comparison with two competing methods.

PubMed

Vossoughi, Mehrdad; Ayatollahi, S M T; Towhidi, Mina; Ketabchi, Farzaneh

2012-03-22

The summary measure approach (SMA) is sometimes the only applicable tool for the analysis of repeated measurements in medical research, especially when the number of measurements is relatively large. This study aimed to describe techniques based on summary measures for the analysis of linear trend repeated measures data and then to compare performances of SMA, linear mixed model (LMM), and unstructured multivariate approach (UMA). Practical guidelines based on the least squares regression slope and mean of response over time for each subject were provided to test time, group, and interaction effects. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies, the efficacy of SMA vs. LMM and traditional UMA, under different types of covariance structures, was illustrated. All the methods were also employed to analyze two real data examples. Based on the simulation and example results, it was found that the SMA completely dominated the traditional UMA and performed convincingly close to the best-fitting LMM in testing all the effects. However, the LMM was not often robust and led to non-sensible results when the covariance structure for errors was misspecified. The results emphasized discarding the UMA which often yielded extremely conservative inferences as to such data. It was shown that summary measure is a simple, safe and powerful approach in which the loss of efficiency compared to the best-fitting LMM was generally negligible. The SMA is recommended as the first choice to reliably analyze the linear trend data with a moderate to large number of measurements and/or small to moderate sample sizes.
[Shock shape representation of sinus heart rate based on cloud model].

PubMed

Yin, Wenfeng; Zhao, Jie; Chen, Tiantian; Zhang, Junjian; Zhang, Chunyou; Li, Dapeng; An, Baijing

2014-04-01

The present paper is to analyze the trend of sinus heart rate RR interphase sequence after a single ventricular premature beat and to compare it with the two parameters, turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS). Based on the acquisition of sinus rhythm concussion sample, we in this paper use a piecewise linearization method to extract its linear characteristics, following which we describe shock form with natural language through cloud model. In the process of acquisition, we use the exponential smoothing method to forecast the position where QRS wave may appear to assist QRS wave detection, and use template to judge whether current cardiac is sinus rhythm. And we choose some signals from MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database to detect whether the algorithm is effective in Matlab. The results show that our method can correctly detect the changing trend of sinus heart rate. The proposed method can achieve real-time detection of sinus rhythm shocks, which is simple and easily implemented, so that it is effective as a supplementary method.
An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.
Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.

PubMed

Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe

2005-09-01

We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.

Flexible and structured survival model for a simultaneous estimation of non-linear and non-proportional effects and complex interactions between continuous variables: Performance of this multidimensional penalized spline approach in net survival trend analysis.

PubMed

Remontet, Laurent; Uhry, Zoé; Bossard, Nadine; Iwaz, Jean; Belot, Aurélien; Danieli, Coraline; Charvat, Hadrien; Roche, Laurent

2018-01-01

Cancer survival trend analyses are essential to describe accurately the way medical practices impact patients' survival according to the year of diagnosis. To this end, survival models should be able to account simultaneously for non-linear and non-proportional effects and for complex interactions between continuous variables. However, in the statistical literature, there is no consensus yet on how to build such models that should be flexible but still provide smooth estimates of survival. In this article, we tackle this challenge by smoothing the complex hypersurface (time since diagnosis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and mortality hazard) using a multidimensional penalized spline built from the tensor product of the marginal bases of time, age, and year. Considering this penalized survival model as a Poisson model, we assess the performance of this approach in estimating the net survival with a comprehensive simulation study that reflects simple and complex realistic survival trends. The bias was generally small and the root mean squared error was good and often similar to that of the true model that generated the data. This parametric approach offers many advantages and interesting prospects (such as forecasting) that make it an attractive and efficient tool for survival trend analyses.
Bariatric surgery trends: an 18-year report from the International Bariatric Surgery Registry.

PubMed

Samuel, Isaac; Mason, Edward E; Renquist, Kathleen E; Huang, Yu-Hui; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Jamal, Mohammad

2006-11-01

The epidemic of morbid obesity has increased bariatric procedures performed. Trend analyses provide important information that may impact individual practices. Patient data from 137 surgeons were examined from 1987 to 2004 (41,860 patients) using Cochran-Armitage Trend test and Generalized Linear Model. Over an 18-year period, surgeon preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive procedures increased from 33% to 94%, while simple gastric restriction decreased correspondingly (P < .0001). Surgeons per worksite doubled and cases per surgeon increased 71%. Laparoscopic procedures increased to 24%. The percentage of males, mean operative age, and initial body mass index (BMI) increased significantly (P < .0001). Postoperative hospital stay decreased from 5.0 to 3.9 days (P < .0001). The most common procedure in 2004 was Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) (59%). Bariatric surgery patients are now older and heavier, length of stay is shorter, and the laparoscopic approach is more frequent. From 1987 to 2004, the general trend shows a clear preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive operations.
Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.
Analysis of a Spatial Point Pattern: Examining the Damage to Pavement and Pipes in Santa Clara Valley Resulting from the Loma Prieta Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelps, G.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes some simple spatial statistical methods to explore the relationships of scattered points to geologic or other features, represented by points, lines, or areas. It also describes statistical methods to search for linear trends and clustered patterns within the scattered point data. Scattered points are often contained within irregularly shaped study areas, necessitating the use of methods largely unexplored in the point pattern literature. The methods take advantage of the power of modern GIS toolkits to numerically approximate the null hypothesis of randomly located data within an irregular study area. Observed distributions can then be compared with the null distribution of a set of randomly located points. The methods are non-parametric and are applicable to irregularly shaped study areas. Patterns within the point data are examined by comparing the distribution of the orientation of the set of vectors defined by each pair of points within the data with the equivalent distribution for a random set of points within the study area. A simple model is proposed to describe linear or clustered structure within scattered data. A scattered data set of damage to pavement and pipes, recorded after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, is used as an example to demonstrate the analytical techniques. The damage is found to be preferentially located nearer a set of mapped lineaments than randomly scattered damage, suggesting range-front faulting along the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains is related to both the earthquake damage and the mapped lineaments. The damage also exhibit two non-random patterns: a single cluster of damage centered in the town of Los Gatos, California, and a linear alignment of damage along the range front of the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. The linear alignment of damage is strongest between 45? and 50? northwest. This agrees well with the mean trend of the mapped lineaments, measured as 49? northwest.
[Completeness of notifications of violence perpetrated against adolescents in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

PubMed

Santos, Taciana Mirella Batista Dos; Cardoso, Mirian Domingos; Pitangui, Ana Carolina Rodarti; Santos, Yasmim Gabriella Cardoso; Paiva, Saul Martins; Melo, João Paulo Ramos; Silva, Lygia Maria Pereira

2016-12-01

The scope of this study was to analyze the trend of completeness of the data on violence perpetrated against adolescents registered in the State of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2012. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 5,259 adolescents, who were the victims of violence reported in SINAN-VIVA of the Pernambuco State Health Department. Simple linear regression was used to investigate the trend of completeness of the variables. The percentages of completeness were considered to be dependent variables (Y) and the number of years as independent variables (X). The results show a significant increase of 204% in the number of notifications. However, of the 34 variables analyzed, 27 (79.4%) showed a stationary trend, 6 (17.6%) a downward trend, and only one variable (2.9%) an upward trend. Completeness was considered 'Very Poor' for the variables: Education (47.3%), Full Address (21.3%), Occurrence Time (38%) and Use of Alcohol by the Attacker (47%). Therefore, despite the large increase in the number of notifications, data quality continued to be compromised, hampering a more realistic analysis of this group.
CHIPPING FRACTURE RESISTANCE OF DENTURE TOOTH MATERIALS

PubMed Central

Quinn, G. D.; Giuseppetti, A. A.; Hoffman, K. H.

2014-01-01

Objective The applicability of the edge chipping method to denture tooth materials was assessed. These are softer materials than those usually tested by edge chipping. The edge chipping fracture resistances of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) based and two filled resin composite denture tooth materials were compared. Methods An edge chipping machine was used to chip rectangular blocks and flattened anterior denture teeth. Force versus edge distance data were collected over a broad range of forces and distances. Between 20 and 65 chips were made per condition depending upon the material, the scatter, and the indenter type. Different indenter types were used including Rockwell C, sharp conical 120°, Knoop, and Vickers. The edge toughness, Te, was evaluated for different indenter types. Results The edge chipping data collected on the blocks matched the data collected from flattened teeth. High scatter, particularly at large distances and loads, meant that many tests (up to 64) were necessary to compare the denture tooth materials and to ascertain the appropriate data trends. A linear force – distance trend analysis was adequate for comparing these materials. A power law trend might be more appropriate, but the large scatter obscured the definitive determination of the precise trend. Different indenters produce different linear trends, with the ranking of: sharp conical 120°, Rockwell C, and Knoop, from lowest to highest edge toughness. Vickers indenter data were extremely scattered and a sensible trend could not be obtained. Edge toughness was inversely correlated to hardness. Significance Edge chipping data collected either from simple laboratory scale test blocks or from actual denture teeth may be used to evaluate denture materials. The edge chipping method’s applicability has been extended to another class of restorative materials. PMID:24674342
Lessons from Jurassic Park: patients as complex adaptive systems.

PubMed

Katerndahl, David A

2009-08-01

With realization that non-linearity is generally the rule rather than the exception in nature, viewing patients and families as complex adaptive systems may lead to a better understanding of health and illness. Doctors who successfully practise the 'art' of medicine may recognize non-linear principles at work without having the jargon needed to label them. Complex adaptive systems are systems composed of multiple components that display complexity and adaptation to input. These systems consist of self-organized components, which display complex dynamics, ranging from simple periodicity to chaotic and random patterns showing trends over time. Understanding the non-linear dynamics of phenomena both internal and external to our patients can (1) improve our definition of 'health'; (2) improve our understanding of patients, disease and the systems in which they converge; (3) be applied to future monitoring systems; and (4) be used to possibly engineer change. Such a non-linear view of the world is quite congruent with the generalist perspective.
National Trends of Simple Prostatectomy for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia With an Analysis of Risk Factors for Adverse Perioperative Outcomes.

PubMed

Pariser, Joseph J; Pearce, Shane M; Patel, Sanjay G; Bales, Gregory T

2015-10-01

To examine the national trends of simple prostatectomy (SP) for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) focusing on perioperative outcomes and risk factors for complications. The National Inpatient Sample (2002-2012) was utilized to identify patients with BPH undergoing SP. Analysis included demographics, hospital details, associated procedures, and operative approach (open, robotic, or laparoscopic). Outcomes included complications, length of stay, charges, and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors for perioperative complications. Linear regression was used to assess the trends in the national annual utilization of SP. The study population included 35,171 patients. Median length of stay was 4 days (interquartile range 3-6). Cystolithotomy was performed concurrently in 6041 patients (17%). The overall complication rate was 28%, with bleeding occurring most commonly. In total, 148 (0.4%) patients experienced in-hospital mortality. On multivariate analysis, older age, black race, and overall comorbidity were associated with greater risk of complications while the use of a minimally invasive approach and concurrent cystolithotomy had a decreased risk. Over the study period, the national use of simple prostatectomy decreased, on average, by 145 cases per year (P = .002). By 2012, 135/2580 procedures (5%) were performed using a minimally invasive approach. The nationwide utilization of SP for BPH has decreased. Bleeding complications are common, but perioperative mortality is low. Patients who are older, black race, or have multiple comorbidities are at higher risk of complications. Minimally invasive approaches, which are becoming increasingly utilized, may reduce perioperative morbidity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
125Te NMR chemical-shift trends in PbTe–GeTe and PbTe–SnTe alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Njegic, Bosiljka; Levin, Evgenii M.; Schmidt-Rohr, Klaus

2013-10-08

Complex tellurides, such as doped PbTe, GeTe, and their alloys, are among the best thermoelectric materials. Knowledge of the change in 125Te NMR chemical shift due to bonding to dopant or “solute” atoms is useful for determination of phase composition, peak assignment, and analysis of local bonding. We have measured the 125Te NMR chemical shifts in PbTe-based alloys, Pb 1-xGe xTe and Pb 1-xSn xTe, which have a rocksalt-like structure, and analyzed their trends. For low x, several peaks are resolved in the 22-kHz MAS 125Te NMR spectra. A simple linear trend in chemical shifts with the number of Pbmore » neighbors is observed. No evidence of a proposed ferroelectric displacement of Ge atoms in a cubic PbTe matrix is detected at low Ge concentrations. The observed chemical shift trends are compared with the results of DFT calculations, which confirm the linear dependence on the composition of the first-neighbor shell. The data enable determination of the composition of various phases in multiphase telluride materials. They also provide estimates of the 125Te chemical shifts of GeTe and SnTe (+970 and +400±150 ppm, respectively, from PbTe), which are otherwise difficult to access due to Knight shifts of many hundreds of ppm in neat GeTe and SnTe.« less
Making sense of enthalpy of vaporization trends for ionic liquids: new experimental and simulation data show a simple linear relationship and help reconcile previous data.

PubMed

Verevkin, Sergey P; Zaitsau, Dzmitry H; Emel'yanenko, Vladimir N; Yermalayeu, Andrei V; Schick, Christoph; Liu, Hongjun; Maginn, Edward J; Bulut, Safak; Krossing, Ingo; Kalb, Roland

2013-05-30

Vaporization enthalpy of an ionic liquid (IL) is a key physical property for applications of ILs as thermofluids and also is useful in developing liquid state theories and validating intermolecular potential functions used in molecular modeling of these liquids. Compilation of the data for a homologous series of 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethane-sulfonyl)imide ([C(n)mim][NTf2]) ILs has revealed an embarrassing disarray of literature results. New experimental data, based on the concurring results from quartz crystal microbalance, thermogravimetric analyses, and molecular dynamics simulation have revealed a clear linear dependence of IL vaporization enthalpies on the chain length of the alkyl group on the cation. Ambiguity of the procedure for extrapolation of vaporization enthalpies to the reference temperature 298 K was found to be a major source of the discrepancies among previous data sets. Two simple methods for temperature adjustment of vaporization enthalpies have been suggested. Resulting vaporization enthalpies obey group additivity, although the values of the additivity parameters for ILs are different from those for molecular compounds.
[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

PubMed

Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P value
The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.
Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling. PMID:9764107
Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Jastram, John D.

2015-01-01

Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023 °C per year for AT and 0.028 °C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.
Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.
Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.
The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.
Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

2017-10-30

We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.
Modeling of time trends and interactions in vital rates using restricted regression splines.

PubMed

Heuer, C

1997-03-01

For the analysis of time trends in incidence and mortality rates, the age-period-cohort (apc) model has became a widely accepted method. The considered data are arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period, which are mostly subdivided into 5- or 10-year intervals. The disadvantage of this approach is the loss of information by data aggregation and the problems of estimating interactions in the two-way layout without replications. In this article we show how splines can be useful when yearly data, i.e., 1-year age groups and 1-year periods, are given. The estimated spline curves are still smooth and represent yearly changes in the time trends. Further, it is straightforward to include interaction terms by the tensor product of the spline functions. If the data are given in a nonrectangular table, e.g., 5-year age groups and 1-year periods, the period and cohort variables can be parameterized by splines, while the age variable is parameterized as fixed effect levels, which leads to a semiparametric apc model. An important methodological issue in developing the nonparametric and semiparametric models is stability of the estimated spline curve at the boundaries. Here cubic regression splines will be used, which are constrained to be linear in the tails. Another point of importance is the nonidentifiability problem due to the linear dependency of the three time variables. This will be handled by decomposing the basis of each spline by orthogonal projection into constant, linear, and nonlinear terms, as suggested by Holford (1983, Biometrics 39, 311-324) for the traditional apc model. The advantage of using splines for yearly data compared to the traditional approach for aggregated data is the more accurate curve estimation for the nonlinear trend changes and the simple way of modeling interactions between the time variables. The method will be demonstrated with hypothetical data as well as with cancer mortality data.
Washington State's alcohol ignition interlock law: effects on recidivism among first-time DUI offenders.

PubMed

McCartt, Anne T; Leaf, William A; Farmer, Charles M; Eichelberger, Angela H

2013-01-01

To examine the effects of changes to Washington State's ignition interlock laws: moving issuance of interlock orders from courts to the driver licensing department in July 2003 and extending the interlock order requirement to first-time offenders with blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) below 0.15 percent ("first simple driving under the influence [DUI]") in June 2004. Trends in conviction types, interlock installation rates, and 2-year cumulative recidivism rates were examined for first-time convictions (simple, high-BAC, test refusal DUI; deferred prosecution; alcohol-related negligent driving) stemming from DUI arrests between January 1999 and June 2006. Regression analyses examined recidivism effects of the law changes and interlock installation rates. To examine general deterrent effects, trends in single-vehicle late-night crashes in Washington were compared with trends in California and Oregon. After the 2004 law change, the proportion of simple DUIs declined somewhat, though the proportion of negligent driving convictions (no interlock order requirement) continued an upward trend. Interlock installation rates for first simple DUIs were 3 to 6 percent in the year before the law change and one third after. Recidivism declined by an estimated 12 percent (e.g., expected 10.6% without law change vs. 9.3% among offenders arrested between April and June 2006, the last study quarter) among first simple DUI offenders and an estimated 11 percent (expected 10.2% vs. 9.1%) among all first-time offenders. There was an estimated 0.06 percentage point decrease in the recidivism rate for each percentage point increase in the proportion of first simple DUI offenders with interlocks. If installation rates had been 100 vs. 34 percent for first simple DUI offenders arrested between April and June 2006, and if the linear relationship between rates of recidivism and installations continued, recidivism could have been reduced from 9.3 to 5.3 percent. With installation rates of 100 vs. 24 percent for all first offenders, their recidivism rate could have fallen from 9.1 to 3.2 percent. Although installation rates increased somewhat after the 2003 law change, recidivism rates were not significantly affected, perhaps due to the short follow-up period before the 2004 law change. The 2004 law change was associated with an 8.3 percent reduction in single-vehicle late-night crash risk. Mandating interlock orders for all first DUI convictions was associated with reductions in recidivism, even with low interlock use rates, and reductions in crashes. Additional gains are likely achievable with higher rates. Jurisdictions should seek to increase use rates and reconsider permitting reductions in DUI charges to other traffic offenses without interlock order requirements.

Recent Enrollment Trends in American Soil Science Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.; Abit, Sergio; Brown, David; Dolliver, Holly; Hopkins, David; Lindbo, David; Manu, Andrew; Mbila, Monday; Parikh, Sanjai J.; Schulze, Darrell; Shaw, Joey; Weil, Ray; Weindorf, David

2015-04-01

Soil science student enrollment was on the decline in the United States from the early 1990s through the early 2000s. Overall undergraduate student enrollment in American colleges and universities rose by about 11% over the same time period. This fact created considerable consternation among the American soil science community. As we head into the International Year of Soil, it seemed to be a good time to revisit this issue and examine current enrollment trends. Fourteen universities that offer undergraduate and/or graduate programs in soil science were surveyed for their enrollments over the time period 2007-2014 (the last seven academic years). The 14 schools represent about 20% of the institutions that offer soil science degrees/programs in the United States. Thirteen institutions submitted undergraduate data and 10 submitted graduate data, which was analyzed by individual institution and in aggregate. Simple linear regression was used to find the slope of best-fit trend lines. For individual institutions, a slope of ≥ 0.5 (on average, the school gained 0.5 students per year or more) was considered to be growing enrollment, ≤ -0.5 was considered shrinking enrollment, and between -0.5 and 0.5 was considered to be stable enrollment. For aggregated data, the 0.5 slope standard was multiplied by the number of schools in the aggregated survey to determine whether enrollment was growing, shrinking, or stable. Over the period of the study, six of the 13 schools reporting undergraduate data showed enrollment gains, five of the 13 showed stable enrollments, one of the 13 showed declining enrollments, and one of the 13 discontinued their undergraduate degree program. The linear regression trend line for the undergraduate schools' composite data had a slope of 55.0 students/year (R2 = 0.96), indicating a strong overall trend of undergraduate enrollment growth at these schools. However, the largest school had also seen large growth in enrollment. To ensure that this one institution was not masking an overall declining enrollment trend, the regression was also run with that institution removed. This gave a linear trend line with a slope of 6.6 students/year (R2 = 0.90), indicating more moderate growth but still a trend towards growth in undergraduate enrollment. Four of the 10 graduate programs showed enrollment gains, five of the 10 showed stable enrollments, and one of the 10 showed declining enrollments. The linear regression trend line for the composite graduate school data had a slope of 12.0 students/year (R2 = 0.97), indicating an overall trend of enrollment growth at these schools. As a whole, both the undergraduate and graduate programs investigated showed moderate growth trends, which represent a reversal of enrollment trends reported at the beginning of the 21st Century. Challenges in obtaining the data used for this study included 1) differences in data collection and archiving by institutions and 2) only some schools still offer a soil science degree; many schools offer another degree (e.g., agricultural studies, agronomy, environmental resource science, environmental science, plant and soil science, etc.) with a soils option or emphasis. In the second case it was necessary to identify which students in these other degree programs pursued the soil science option or emphasis.
Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980-2014).

PubMed

Nunes, A N; Lourenço, L; Meira, A C Castro

2016-12-15

Information on the spatial incidence of fire ignition density and burnt area, trends and drivers of wildfires is vitally important in providing support for environmental and civil protection policies, designing appropriate prevention measures and allocating firefighting resources. The key objectives of this study were to analyse the geographical incidence and temporal trends for wildfires, as well as the main drivers of fire ignition and burnt area in Portugal on a municipal level. The results show that fires are not distributed uniformly throughout Portuguese territory, both in terms of ignition density and burnt area. One spot in the north-western area is well defined, covering 10% of the municipalities where more than one third of the total fire ignitions are concentrated. In >80% of Portuguese municipalities, ignition density has registered a positive trend since the 1980s. With regard to burnt area, 60% of the municipalities had a nil annual trend, 35% showed a positive trend and 5%, located mainly in the central region, revealed negative trends. Geographically weighted regression proved more efficient in identifying the most relevant physical and anthropogenic drivers of municipal wildfires in comparison with simple linear regression models. Topography, density of population, land cover and livestock were found to be significant in both ignition density and burnt area, although considerable variations were observed in municipal explanatory power. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Inverse sequential procedures for the monitoring of time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1995-01-01

When one or more new values are added to a developing time series, they change its descriptive parameters (mean, variance, trend, coherence). A 'change index (CI)' is developed as a quantitative indicator that the changed parameters remain compatible with the existing 'base' data. CI formulate are derived, in terms of normalized likelihood ratios, for small samples from Poisson, Gaussian, and Chi-Square distributions, and for regression coefficients measuring linear or exponential trends. A substantial parameter change creates a rapid or abrupt CI decrease which persists when the length of the bases is changed. Except for a special Gaussian case, the CI has no simple explicit regions for tests of hypotheses. However, its design ensures that the series sampled need not conform strictly to the distribution form assumed for the parameter estimates. The use of the CI is illustrated with both constructed and observed data samples, processed with a Fortran code 'Sequitor'.
Rhenium-osmium concentration and isotope systematics in group IIAB iron meteorites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, J.W.; Horan, M.F.; Walker, R.J.; Grossman, J.N.

1995-01-01

Rhenium and osmium abundances, and osmium isotopic compositions were measured by negative thermal ionization mass spectrometry in thirty samples, including replicates, of five IIA and eight IIB iron meteorites. Log plots of Os vs. Re abundances for IIA and IIB irons describe straight lines that approximately converge on Lombard, which has the lowest Re and Os abundances and highest 187Re/188Os measured in a IIA iron to date. The linear IIA trend may be exactly reproduced by fractional crystallization, but is not well fitted using variable partition coefficients. The IIB iron trend, however, cannot be entirely explained by simple fractional crystallization. One explanation is that small amounts of Re and Os were added to the asteroid core during the final stages of crystallization. Another possibility is that diffusional enrichment of Os may have occurred in samples most depleted in Re and Os. -from Authors
Meteorological adjustment of yearly mean values for air pollutant concentration comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.; Neustadter, H. E.

1976-01-01

Using multiple linear regression analysis, models which estimate mean concentrations of Total Suspended Particulate (TSP), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide as a function of several meteorologic variables, two rough economic indicators, and a simple trend in time are studied. Meteorologic data were obtained and do not include inversion heights. The goodness of fit of the estimated models is partially reflected by the squared coefficient of multiple correlation which indicates that, at the various sampling stations, the models accounted for about 23 to 47 percent of the total variance of the observed TSP concentrations. If the resulting model equations are used in place of simple overall means of the observed concentrations, there is about a 20 percent improvement in either: (1) predicting mean concentrations for specified meteorological conditions; or (2) adjusting successive yearly averages to allow for comparisons devoid of meteorological effects. An application to source identification is presented using regression coefficients of wind velocity predictor variables.
Advanced statistics: linear regression, part I: simple linear regression.

PubMed

Marill, Keith A

2004-01-01

Simple linear regression is a mathematical technique used to model the relationship between a single independent predictor variable and a single dependent outcome variable. In this, the first of a two-part series exploring concepts in linear regression analysis, the four fundamental assumptions and the mechanics of simple linear regression are reviewed. The most common technique used to derive the regression line, the method of least squares, is described. The reader will be acquainted with other important concepts in simple linear regression, including: variable transformations, dummy variables, relationship to inference testing, and leverage. Simplified clinical examples with small datasets and graphic models are used to illustrate the points. This will provide a foundation for the second article in this series: a discussion of multiple linear regression, in which there are multiple predictor variables.
Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less
Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.
Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less
Does linear separability really matter? Complex visual search is explained by simple search

PubMed Central

Vighneshvel, T.; Arun, S. P.

2013-01-01

Visual search in real life involves complex displays with a target among multiple types of distracters, but in the laboratory, it is often tested using simple displays with identical distracters. Can complex search be understood in terms of simple searches? This link may not be straightforward if complex search has emergent properties. One such property is linear separability, whereby search is hard when a target cannot be separated from its distracters using a single linear boundary. However, evidence in favor of linear separability is based on testing stimulus configurations in an external parametric space that need not be related to their true perceptual representation. We therefore set out to assess whether linear separability influences complex search at all. Our null hypothesis was that complex search performance depends only on classical factors such as target-distracter similarity and distracter homogeneity, which we measured using simple searches. Across three experiments involving a variety of artificial and natural objects, differences between linearly separable and nonseparable searches were explained using target-distracter similarity and distracter heterogeneity. Further, simple searches accurately predicted complex search regardless of linear separability (r = 0.91). Our results show that complex search is explained by simple search, refuting the widely held belief that linear separability influences visual search. PMID:24029822
Comportement de l'oscillateur DORIS/Jason au passage de l'anomalie sud-atlantique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, Pascal; Haines, Bruce; Berthias, Jean-Paul; Sengenes, Pierre; Le Mouël, Jean-Louis

2004-07-01

We point out an acceleration of the DORIS clock on-board the Jason satellite during passes over the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). When this effect is ignored in the current geodetic positioning of the DORIS stations, derived coordinates show almost linear trends in time, corresponding to anomalous horizontal and vertical velocities of the order of 1 m yr -1. We propose a simple scientific explanation of this physical phenomenon that is corroborated by direct Jason/TOPEX clock comparisons with respect to the DORIS master beacons in Kourou and Toulouse. To cite this article: P. Willis et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).
Barrier island morphodynamic classification based on lidar metrics for north Assateague Island, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Krabill, William; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2004-01-01

In order to reap the potential of airborne lidar surveys to provide geological information useful in understanding coastal sedimentary processes acting on various time scales, a new set of analysis methods are needed. This paper presents a multi-temporal lidar analysis of north Assateague Island, Maryland, and demonstrates the calculation of lidar metrics that condense barrier island morphology and morphological change into attributed linear features that may be used to analyze trends in coastal evolution. The new methods proposed in this paper are also of significant practical value, because lidar metric analysis reduces large volumes of point elevations into linear features attributed with essential morphological variables that are ideally suited for inclusion in Geographic Information Systems. A morphodynamic classification of north Assategue Island for a recent 10 month time period that is based on the recognition of simple patterns described by lidar change metrics is presented. Such morphodynamic classification reveals the relative magnitude and the fine scale alongshore variation in the importance of coastal changes over the study area during a defined time period. More generally, through the presentation of this morphodynamic classification of north Assateague Island, the value of lidar metrics in both examining large lidar data sets for coherent trends and in building hypotheses regarding processes driving barrier evolution is demonstrated
Reconstruction of March-June precipitation from tree rings in central Liaoning, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yanchao; Liu, Yu

2017-11-01

A dendrochronological profile was generated from Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Qianshan Mountains in northeastern China. Based on correlation analyses, the pattern of precipitation from March to June ( P 36 ) was reconstructed using a simple linear model, which explained 42.7% of the total variance in observed precipitation from 1951 to 2012. The reconstructed P 36 series revealed a consistently increasing trend in precipitation during the twentieth century in the Qianshan Mountains. The reconstructed data showed trends that were similar to those in the variation in trends for March-June precipitation observed at the Shenyang station, the reconstructed January-May precipitation trends in Shenyang City, and the reconstructed average June-September relative humidity for Yiwulü Mountain. The reconstructed data also showed good agreement with the droughts reported in historical documents and recorded by meteorological stations in Liaoning. Spatial correlation analyses show that the reconstructed data reflect the variability in precipitation that occurs over much of northeastern China. In addition, our reconstruction showed a significant periodicity. The significant correlations between the reconstructed P 36 and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspot numbers indicate that precipitation variability in the Qianshan Mountain region is probably driven by extensive atmosphere-sea interactions and solar activities.
On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.

2008-01-01

Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.
On the Observed Changes in Upper Stratospheric and Mesospheric Temperatures from UARS HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2006-01-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) have been extended and re-analyzed for the period of 1991-2005 and for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere in 10-degree wide latitude zones from 60S to 60N. Even though sampling from a solar occultation experiment is somewhat limited, it is shown to be quite adequate for developing both the seasonal and longer-term variations in T(p). Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used in the re-analyses for the seasonal and the significant interannual, solar cycle (SC-like or decadal-scale), and linear trend terms. A simple SC-like term of 11-yr period was fitted to the time series residuals after accounting for the seasonal and interannual terms. Highly significant SC-like responses were found for both the upper mesosphere and the upper stratosphere. The phases of these SC-like terms were checked for their continuity with latitude and pressure-altitude, and in almost all cases they are directly in-phase with that of standard proxies for the solar flux variations. The analyzed, max minus min, responses at low latitudes are of order 1 K, while at middle latitudes they are as large as 3 K in the upper mesosphere. Highly significant, linear cooling trends were found at middle latitudes of the middle to upper mesosphere (about -2 K/decade), at tropical latitudes of the middle mesosphere (about -1 K/decade), and at 2 hPa (or order -1 K/decade).
Possible Explanation of the Different Temporal Behaviors of Various Classes of Sunspot Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Peng-Xin; Li, Ke-Jun; Li, Fu-Yu

2017-09-01

In order to investigate the periodicity and long-term trends of various classes of sunspot groups (SGs), we separated SGs into two categories: simple SGs (A/U ≤ 4.5, where A represents the total corrected whole spot area of the group in millionths of the solar hemisphere (msh), and U represents the total corrected umbral area of the group in msh); and complex SGs (A/U > 6.2). Based on the revised version of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results sunspot catalogue, we investigated the periodic behaviors and long-term trends of simple and complex SGs from 1875 to 1976 using the Hilbert-Huang Transform method, and we confirm that the temporal behaviors of simple and complex SGs are quite different. Our main findings are as follows. i) For simple and complex SGs, the values of the Schwabe cycle wax and wane, following the solar activity cycle. ii) There are significant phase differences (almost antiphase) between the periodicity of 53.50 ± 3.79 years extracted from yearly simple SG numbers and the periodicity of 56.21 ± 2.92 years extracted from yearly complex SG numbers. iii) The adaptive trends of yearly simple and complex SG numbers are also quite different: for simple SGs, the values of the adaptive trend gradually increase during the time period of 1875 - 1949, then they decrease gradually from 1949 to 1976, similar to the rise and the maximum phase of a sine curve; for complex SGs, the values of the adaptive trend first slowly increase and then quickly increase, similar to the minimum and rise phase of a sine curve.
A Data Matrix Method for Improving the Quantification of Element Percentages of SEM/EDX Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lane, John

2009-01-01

A simple 2D M N matrix involving sample preparation enables the microanalyst to peer below the noise floor of element percentages reported by the SEM/EDX (scanning electron microscopy/ energy dispersive x-ray) analysis, thus yielding more meaningful data. Using the example of a 2 3 sample set, there are M = 2 concentration levels of the original mix under test: 10 percent ilmenite (90 percent silica) and 20 percent ilmenite (80 percent silica). For each of these M samples, N = 3 separate SEM/EDX samples were drawn. In this test, ilmenite is the element of interest. By plotting the linear trend of the M sample s known concentration versus the average of the N samples, a much higher resolution of elemental analysis can be performed. The resulting trend also shows how the noise is affecting the data, and at what point (of smaller concentrations) is it impractical to try to extract any further useful data.
Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years.

PubMed

Ojerholm, Eric; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

2015-11-15

To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. We examined the authorship credits of "original research articles" within 2 popular radiation oncology journals-International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology-in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001). On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Preliminary investigation of Zagros thrust-fold-belt deformation using SAR interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nilforoushan, Faramarz; Talbot, Christopher J.; Fielding, Eric J.

2005-01-01

Most of the Zagros deformation resulting from the convergence of Arabia and Eurasia takes place in the Southeast Zagros. To apply the SAR interferometry geodetic technique, a few ERS 1 & 2 satellite images were used to map this continuing deformation proven by GPS. Interferograms over 7 years show surprisingly high coherence. The unwrapped phases display a high correlation with topography reflecting atmospheric noise in addition to the desired tectonic signal. We estimate two simple linear trends and remove them from interferograms. The preliminary results show local uplift rates with a likely minimum of 1-2 mm/yr. These early crude results will be tested by more data in project No. 3174.
Stress and strain evolution of folding rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llorens, Maria-Gema; Griera, Albert; Bons, Paul; Gomez-Rivas, Enrique; Weikusat, Ilka

2015-04-01

One of the main objectives of structural geology is to unravel rock deformation histories. Fold shapes can be used to estimate the orientation and amount of strain associated with folding. However, much more information on rheology and kinematics can potentially be extracted from fold geometries (Llorens et al., 2013a). We can study the development of folds, quantify the relationships between the different parameters that determine their geometries and estimate their mechanical evolution. This approach allows us to better understand and predict not only rock but also ice deformation. One of the main parameters in fold development is the viscosity contrast between the folding layer and the matrix in which it is embedded (m), since it determines the initial fold wavelength and the amplification rate of the developing folds. Moreover, non-linear viscous rheology influences fold geometry too (Llorens et al., 2013b). We present a series of 2-dimensional simulations of folding of viscous single layers in pure and simple shear. We vary different parameters in order to compare and determine their influence on the resulting fold patterns and the associated mechanical response of the material. To perform these simulations we use the software platform ELLE (www.elle.ws) with the non-linear viscous finite element code BASIL. The results show that layers thicken at the beginning of deformation in all simulations, and visible folds start earlier or later depending on the viscosity contrast. When folds start to nucleate the layer maximum shear strain decreases, moving away from the theoretical trend for homogeneous strain (no folding). This allows the accurate determination of the onset of folding. Maximum deviatoric stresses are higher in power-law than in linear-viscosity materials, and it is initially double in pure shear than in simple shear conditions. Therefore, folding a competent layer requires less work in simple than in pure shear. The maximum deviatoric stress difference between pure and simple shear is less pronounced in power-law materials. It also depends on the original orientation of the layer relative to the shear plane, being the shortening rate initially relatively low when the layer makes a low angle with the shear plane. The mechanical behaviour is similar in pure and simple shear when the layer is oriented at a relative high angle (45°). M-G Llorens, PD Bons, A Griera and E Gomez-Rivas (2013a) When do folds unfold during progressive shear?. Geology, 41, 563-566. M-G Llorens, PD Bons, A Griera, E Gomez-Rivas and LA Evans (2013b) Single layer folding in simple shear. Journal of Structural Geology, 50, 209-220.

How to Attain an Ultralow Interfacial Tension and a Three-Phase Behavior with a Surfactant Formulation for Enhanced Oil Recovery: A Review. Part 2. Performance Improvement Trends from Winsor's Premise to Currently Proposed Inter- and Intra-Molecular Mixtures.

PubMed

Salager, Jean-Louis; Forgiarini, Ana M; Márquez, Laura; Manchego, Lisbeth; Bullón, Johnny

2013-01-01

The minimum interfacial tension occurrence along a formulation scan at the so-called optimum formulation is discussed to be related to the interfacial curvature. The attained minimum tension is inversely proportional to the domain size of the bicontinuous microemulsion and to the interfacial layer rigidity, but no accurate prediction is available. The data from a very simple ternary system made of pure products accurately follows the correlation for optimum formulation, and exhibit a linear relationship between the performance index as the logarithm of the minimum tension at optimum, and the formulation variables. This relation is probably too simple when the number of variables is increased as in practical cases. The review of published data for more realistic systems proposed for enhanced oil recovery over the past 30 years indicates a general guidelines following Winsor's basic studies concerning the surfactant-oil-water interfacial interactions. It is well known that the major performance benefits are achieved by blending amphiphilic species at the interface as intermolecular or intramolecular mixtures, sometimes in extremely complex formulations. The complexity is such that a good knowledge of the possible trends and an experienced practical know-how to avoid trial and error are important for the practitioner in enhanced oil recovery.
Establishing the severity of personality disorder.

PubMed

Tyrer, P; Johnson, T

1996-12-01

The authors developed a simplified method of rating the severity of personality disorder. The new rating method is based on four levels of severity: no personality disorder, personality difficulty, simple personality disorder, and diffuse personality disorder. The new method was applied to different diagnostic systems and was then compared with an old rating system based on six severity levels. Data were derived from a longitudinal study in which 163 patients with anxiety and depressive disorders had initial assessments of personality status and were followed up over 2 years. Ratings of psychiatric symptoms were made by using the Comprehensive Psychopathological Rating Scale over this period. The results were analyzed with special attention to linear and quadratic trends. The new system was clinically useful in separating patients' initial assessments and outcomes. Patients with no personality disorder had the lowest initial symptom scores and the best outcomes, and those with diffuse personality disorder had the highest initial levels of symptoms and improved least over the 2 years. When the patients were separated by the old classification system, 72% of the variation between groups was accounted for by linear and quadratic trends; the comparable percentage was 97% when the patients were categorized by the new system. The new system of rating severity of personality disturbance is an improvement on existing methods and allows ratings to be made easily from DSM-IV and ICD-10.
The structure of the Temsamane fold-and-thrust stack (eastern Rif, Morocco): Evolution of a transpressional orogenic wedge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jabaloy-Sánchez, Antonio; Azdimousa, Ali; Booth-Rea, Guillermo; Asebriy, Lahcen; Vázquez-Vílchez, Mercedes; Martínez-Martínez, José Miguel; Gabites, Janet

2015-11-01

The structure of the Temsamane fold-and-thrust stack corresponds to four units limited by anastomosing ductile shear zones cutting a trend of south verging recumbent folds. This ductile stack was formed in an inclined left-handed transpressional zone at the North African paleomargin during Chattian to Langhian times producing two main deformational events. The first event (Dp) produced a Sp/Lp planar linear fabric generated in a non-coaxial deformation with a top-to-the-WSW sense of movement and was associated to metamorphic P-T conditions varying from late diagenesis in the southernmost Temsamane outcrops to epizone in the north. According to the 40Ar/39Ar ages, this deformation occurred at Chattian-Aquitanian times. The second deformational event (Dc event) generated ENE-WSW trending folds with SSE vergence and a set of anastomosing shear zones with Sm/Lm planar linear fabric. The latter units were generated at around 15 Ma (Langhian), and indicate a strong localization of the simple shear component of the transpression. Moreover, this orientation is compatible with the kinematics of the Temsamane detachment, which can explain most of the uplift of the Temsamane rocks from the middle to the uppermost crust. The described evolution indicates that collision between the western Mediterranean terranes and the North African paleomargin and the formation of the Rifean orogenic wedge occurred at Chattian to Langhian times.
The f ( R ) halo mass function in the cosmic web

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Braun-Bates, F. von; Winther, H.A.; Alonso, D.

An important indicator of modified gravity is the effect of the local environment on halo properties. This paper examines the influence of the local tidal structure on the halo mass function, the halo orientation, spin and the concentration-mass relation. We use the excursion set formalism to produce a halo mass function conditional on large-scale structure. Our simple model agrees well with simulations on large scales at which the density field is linear or weakly non-linear. Beyond this, our principal result is that f ( R ) does affect halo abundances, the halo spin parameter and the concentration-mass relationship in anmore » environment-independent way, whereas we find no appreciable deviation from \\text(ΛCDM) for the mass function with fixed environment density, nor the alignment of the orientation and spin vectors of the halo to the eigenvectors of the local cosmic web. There is a general trend for greater deviation from \\text(ΛCDM) in underdense environments and for high-mass haloes, as expected from chameleon screening.« less
Injuries of the head from backface deformation of ballistic protective helmets under ballistic impact.

PubMed

Rafaels, Karin A; Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Salzar, Robert S; Davis, Martin; Boggess, Brian; Bush, Bryan; Harris, Robert; Rountree, Mark Steve; Sanderson, Ellory; Campman, Steven; Koch, Spencer; Dale Bass, Cameron R

2015-01-01

Modern ballistic helmets defeat penetrating bullets by energy transfer from the projectile to the helmet, producing helmet deformation. This deformation may cause severe injuries without completely perforating the helmet, termed "behind armor blunt trauma" (BABT). As helmets become lighter, the likelihood of larger helmet backface deformation under ballistic impact increases. To characterize the potential for BABT, seven postmortem human head/neck specimens wearing a ballistic protective helmet were exposed to nonperforating impact, using a 9 mm, full metal jacket, 124 grain bullet with velocities of 400-460 m/s. An increasing trend of injury severity was observed, ranging from simple linear fractures to combinations of linear and depressed fractures. Overall, the ability to identify skull fractures resulting from BABT can be used in forensic investigations. Our results demonstrate a high risk of skull fracture due to BABT and necessitate the prevention of BABT as a design factor in future generations of protective gear. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Generalized scaling relationships on transition metals: Influence of adsorbate-coadsorbate interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majumdar, Paulami; Greeley, Jeffrey

2018-04-01

Linear scaling relations of adsorbate energies across a range of catalytic surfaces have emerged as a central interpretive paradigm in heterogeneous catalysis. They are, however, typically developed for low adsorbate coverages which are not always representative of realistic heterogeneous catalytic environments. Herein, we present generalized linear scaling relations on transition metals that explicitly consider adsorbate-coadsorbate interactions at variable coverages. The slopes of these scaling relations do not follow the simple bond counting principles that govern scaling on transition metals at lower coverages. The deviations from bond counting are explained using a pairwise interaction model wherein the interaction parameter determines the slope of the scaling relationship on a given metal at variable coadsorbate coverages, and the slope across different metals at fixed coadsorbate coverage is approximated by adding a coverage-dependent correction to the standard bond counting contribution. The analysis provides a compact explanation for coverage-dependent deviations from bond counting in scaling relationships and suggests a useful strategy for incorporation of coverage effects into catalytic trends studies.
Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A simple bias correction in linear regression for quantitative trait association under two-tail extreme selection.

PubMed

Kwan, Johnny S H; Kung, Annie W C; Sham, Pak C

2011-09-01

Selective genotyping can increase power in quantitative trait association. One example of selective genotyping is two-tail extreme selection, but simple linear regression analysis gives a biased genetic effect estimate. Here, we present a simple correction for the bias.
Practical Session: Simple Linear Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clausel, M.; Grégoire, G.

2014-12-01

Two exercises are proposed to illustrate the simple linear regression. The first one is based on the famous Galton's data set on heredity. We use the lm R command and get coefficients estimates, standard error of the error, R2, residuals …In the second example, devoted to data related to the vapor tension of mercury, we fit a simple linear regression, predict values, and anticipate on multiple linear regression. This pratical session is an excerpt from practical exercises proposed by A. Dalalyan at EPNC (see Exercises 1 and 2 of http://certis.enpc.fr/~dalalyan/Download/TP_ENPC_4.pdf).
Measuring U-series Disequilibrium in Weathering Rinds to Study the Influence of Environmental Factors to Weathering Rates in Tropical Basse-Terre Island (French Guadeloupe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, J.; Ma, L.; Sak, P. B.; Gaillardet, J.; Chabaux, F. J.; Brantley, S. L.

2015-12-01

Chemical weathering is a critical process to global CO2 consumption, river/ocean chemistry, and nutrient import to biosphere. Weathering rinds experience minimal physical erosion and provide a well-constrained system to study the chemical weathering process. Here, we applied U-series disequilibrium dating method to study weathering advance rates on the wet side of Basse-Terre Island, French Guadeloupe, aiming to understand the role of the precipitation in controlling weathering rates and elucidate the behavior and immobilization mechanisms of U-series isotopes during rind formation. Six weathering clasts from 5 watersheds with mean annual precipitation varying from 2000 to 3000 mm/yr were measured for U-series isotope ratios and major element compositions on linear core-to-rind transects. One sample experienced complete core-to-rind transformation, while the rest clasts contain both rinds and unweathered cores. Our results show that the unweathered cores are under U-series secular equilibrium, while all the rind materials show significant U-series disequilibrium. For most rinds, linear core-to-rind increases of (230Th/232Th) activity ratios suggest a simple continuous U addition history. However, (234U/238U) and (238U/232Th) trends in several clasts show evidences of remobilization of Uranium besides the U addition, complicating the use of U-series dating method. The similarity between U/Th ratios and major elements trends like Fe, Al, P in some transects and the ongoing leaching experiments suggest that redox and organic colloids could control the mobilization of U-series isotopes in the rinds. Rind formation ages and weathering advance rate (0.07-0.29mm/kyr) were calculated for those rinds with a simple U-addition history. Our preliminary results show that local precipitation gradient significantly influenced the weathering advance rate, revealing the potential of estimating weathering advance rates at a large spatial scale using the U-series dating method.
Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.

2010-01-01

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade-1, while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade-1, respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.
Geochemical modeling of magma mixing and magma reservoir volumes during early episodes of Kīlauea Volcano's Pu`u `Ō`ō eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamberger, Patrick J.; Garcia, Michael O.

2007-02-01

Geochemical modeling of magma mixing allows for evaluation of volumes of magma storage reservoirs and magma plumbing configurations. A new analytical expression is derived for a simple two-component box-mixing model describing the proportions of mixing components in erupted lavas as a function of time. Four versions of this model are applied to a mixing trend spanning episodes 3 31 of Kilauea Volcano’s Puu Oo eruption, each testing different constraints on magma reservoir input and output fluxes. Unknown parameters (e.g., magma reservoir influx rate, initial reservoir volume) are optimized for each model using a non-linear least squares technique to fit model trends to geochemical time-series data. The modeled mixing trend closely reproduces the observed compositional trend. The two models that match measured lava effusion rates have constant magma input and output fluxes and suggest a large pre-mixing magma reservoir (46±2 and 49±1 million m3), with little or no volume change over time. This volume is much larger than a previous estimate for the shallow, dike-shaped magma reservoir under the Puu Oo vent, which grew from ˜3 to ˜10 12 million m3. These volumetric differences are interpreted as indicating that mixing occurred first in a larger, deeper reservoir before the magma was injected into the overlying smaller reservoir.
Profile of High School Students’ Propositional Network Representation when Interpreting Convention Diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatiha, M.; Rahmat, A.; Solihat, R.

2017-09-01

The delivery of concepts in studying Biology often represented through a diagram to easily makes student understand about Biology material. One way to knowing the students’ understanding about diagram can be seen from causal relationship that is constructed by student in the propositional network representation form. This research reveal the trend of students’ propositional network representation patterns when confronted with convention diagram. This descriptive research involved 32 students at one of senior high school in Bandung. The research data was acquired by worksheet that was filled by diagram and it was developed according on information processing standards. The result of this research revealed three propositional network representation patterns are linear relationship, simple reciprocal relationship, and complex reciprocal relationship. The dominating pattern is linear form that is simply connect some information components in diagram by 59,4% students, the reciprocal relationship form with medium level by 28,1% students while the complex reciprocal relationship by only 3,1% and the rest was students who failed to connect information components by 9,4%. Based on results, most of student only able to connect information components on the picture in linear form and a few student constructing reciprocal relationship between information components on convention diagram.
Understanding climate impacts on vegetation using a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papagiannopoulou, Christina; Decubber, Stijn; Miralles, Diego; Demuzere, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Waegeman, Willem

2017-04-01

Satellite data provide an abundance of information about crucial climatic and environmental variables. These data - consisting of global records, spanning up to 35 years and having the form of multivariate time series with different spatial and temporal resolutions - enable the study of key climate-vegetation interactions. Although methods which are based on correlations and linear models are typically used for this purpose, their assumptions for linearity about the climate-vegetation relationships are too simplistic. Therefore, we adopt a recently proposed non-linear Granger causality analysis [1], in which we incorporate spatial information, concatenating data from neighboring pixels and training a joint model on the combined data. Experimental results based on global data sets show that considering non-linear relationships leads to a higher explained variance of past vegetation dynamics, compared to simple linear models. Our approach consists of several steps. First, we compile an extensive database [1], which includes multiple data sets for land surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, surface radiation, precipitation, snow water equivalents and surface soil moisture. Based on this database, high-level features are constructed and considered as predictors in our machine-learning framework. These high-level features include (de-trended) seasonal anomalies, lagged variables, past cumulative variables, and extreme indices, all calculated based on the raw climatic data. Second, we apply a spatiotemporal non-linear Granger causality framework - in which the linear predictive model is substituted for a non-linear machine learning algorithm - in order to assess which of these predictor variables Granger-cause vegetation dynamics at each 1° pixel. We use the de-trended anomalies of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize vegetation, being the target variable of our framework. Experimental results indicate that climate strongly (Granger-)causes vegetation dynamics in most regions globally. More specifically, water availability is the most dominant vegetation driver, being the dominant vegetation driver in 54% of the vegetated surface. Furthermore, our results show that precipitation and soil moisture have prolonged impacts on vegetation in semiarid regions, with up to 10% of additional explained variance on the vegetation dynamics occurring three months later. Finally, hydro-climatic extremes seem to have a remarkable impact on vegetation, since they also explain up to 10% of additional variance of vegetation in certain regions despite their infrequent occurrence. References [1] Papagiannopoulou, C., Miralles, D. G., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., and Waegeman, W.: A non-linear Granger causality framework to investigate climate-vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-266, in review, 2016.
Temporal trend of green space coverage in China and its relationship with urbanization over the last two decades.

PubMed

Zhao, Juanjuan; Chen, Shengbin; Jiang, Bo; Ren, Yin; Wang, Hua; Vause, Jonathan; Yu, Haidong

2013-01-01

Irrespective of which side is taken in the densification-sprawl debate, insights into the relationship between urban green space coverage and urbanization have been recognized as essential for guiding sustainable urban development. However, knowledge of the relationships between socio-economic variables of urbanization and long-term green space change is still limited. In this paper, using simple regression, hierarchical partitioning and multi-regression, the temporal trend in green space coverage and its relationship with urbanization were investigated using data from 286 cities between 1989 and 2009, covering all provinces in mainland China with the exception of Tibet. We found that: [1] average green space coverage of cities investigated increased steadily from 17.0% in 1989 to 37.3% in 2009; [2] cities with higher recent green space coverage also had relatively higher green space coverage historically; [3] cities in the same region exhibited similar long-term trends in green space coverage; [4] eight of the nine variables characterizing urbanization showed a significant positive linear relationship with green space coverage, with 'per capita GDP' having the highest independent contribution (24.2%); [5] among the climatic and geographic factors investigated, only mean elevation showed a significant effect; and [6] using the seven largest contributing individual factors, a linear model to predict variance in green space coverage was constructed. Here, we demonstrated that green space coverage in built-up areas tended to reflect the effects of urbanization rather than those of climatic or geographic factors. Quantification of the urbanization effects and the characteristics of green space development in China may provide a valuable reference for research into the processes of urban sprawl and its relationship with green space change. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A high resolution model of linear trend in mass variations from DMT-2: Added value of accounting for coloured noise in GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Hassan H.; Ditmar, Pavel; Inácio, Pedro; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian; Klees, Roland; Guo, Xiang; Guo, Jing; Sun, Yu; Liu, Xianglin; Zhao, Qile; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

We present a high resolution model of the linear trend in the Earth's mass variations based on DMT-2 (Delft Mass Transport model, release 2). DMT-2 was produced primarily from K-Band Ranging (KBR) data of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). It comprises a time series of monthly solutions complete to spherical harmonic degree 120. A novel feature in its production was the accurate computation and incorporation of stochastic properties of coloured noise when processing KBR data. The unconstrained DMT-2 monthly solutions are used to estimate the linear trend together with a bias, as well as annual and semi-annual sinusoidal terms. The linear term is further processed with an anisotropic Wiener filter, which uses full noise and signal covariance matrices. Given the fact that noise in an unconstrained model of the trend is reduced substantially as compared to monthly solutions, the Wiener filter associated with the trend is much less aggressive compared to a Wiener filter applied to monthly solutions. Consequently, the trend estimate shows an enhanced spatial resolution. It allows signals in relatively small water bodies, such as Aral sea and Ladoga lake, to be detected. Over the ice sheets, it allows for a clear identification of signals associated with some outlet glaciers or their groups. We compare the obtained trend estimate with the ones from the CSR-RL05 model using (i) the same approach based on monthly noise covariance matrices and (ii) a commonly-used approach based on the DDK-filtered monthly solutions. We use satellite altimetry data as independent control data. The comparison demonstrates a high spatial resolution of the DMT-2 linear trend. We link this to the usage of high-accuracy monthly noise covariance matrices, which is due to an accurate computation and incorporation of coloured noise when processing KBR data. A preliminary comparison of the linear trend based on DMT-2 with that computed from GSFC_global_mascons_v01 reveals, among other, a high concentration of the signal along the coast for both models in areas like the ice sheets, Gulf of Alaska, and Iceland.
Observation of Simple Intransitive Actions: The Effect of Familiarity

PubMed Central

Plata Bello, Julio; Modroño, Cristián; Marcano, Francisco; González–Mora, José Luis

2013-01-01

Introduction Humans are more familiar with index – thumb than with any other finger to thumb grasping. The effect of familiarity has been previously tested with complex, specialized and/or transitive movements, but not with simple intransitive ones. The aim of this study is to evaluate brain activity patterns during the observation of simple and intransitive finger movements with differing degrees of familiarity. Methodology A functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) study was performed using a paradigm consisting of the observation of 4 videos showing a finger opposition task between the thumb and the other fingers (index, middle, ring and little) in a repetitive manner with a fixed frequency (1 Hz). This movement is considered as the pantomime of a precision grasping action. Results Significant activity was identified in the bilateral Inferior Parietal Lobule and premotor regions with the selected level of significance (FDR [False Discovery Rate] = 0.01). The extent of the activation in both regions tended to decrease when the finger that performed the action was further from the thumb. More specifically, this effect showed a linear trend (index>middle>ring>little) in the right parietal and premotor regions. Conclusions The observation of less familiar simple intransitive movements produces less activation of parietal and premotor areas than familiar ones. The most important implication of this study is the identification of differences in brain activity during the observation of simple intransitive movements with different degrees of familiarity. PMID:24073213
Improvements to surrogate data methods for nonstationary time series.

PubMed

Lucio, J H; Valdés, R; Rodríguez, L R

2012-05-01

The method of surrogate data has been extensively applied to hypothesis testing of system linearity, when only one realization of the system, a time series, is known. Normally, surrogate data should preserve the linear stochastic structure and the amplitude distribution of the original series. Classical surrogate data methods (such as random permutation, amplitude adjusted Fourier transform, or iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform) are successful at preserving one or both of these features in stationary cases. However, they always produce stationary surrogates, hence existing nonstationarity could be interpreted as dynamic nonlinearity. Certain modifications have been proposed that additionally preserve some nonstationarity, at the expense of reproducing a great deal of nonlinearity. However, even those methods generally fail to preserve the trend (i.e., global nonstationarity in the mean) of the original series. This is the case of time series with unit roots in their autoregressive structure. Additionally, those methods, based on Fourier transform, either need first and last values in the original series to match, or they need to select a piece of the original series with matching ends. These conditions are often inapplicable and the resulting surrogates are adversely affected by the well-known artefact problem. In this study, we propose a simple technique that, applied within existing Fourier-transform-based methods, generates surrogate data that jointly preserve the aforementioned characteristics of the original series, including (even strong) trends. Moreover, our technique avoids the negative effects of end mismatch. Several artificial and real, stationary and nonstationary, linear and nonlinear time series are examined, in order to demonstrate the advantages of the methods. Corresponding surrogate data are produced with the classical and with the proposed methods, and the results are compared.
Trends in abuse and misuse of prescription opioids among older adults.

PubMed

West, Nancy A; Severtson, Stevan G; Green, Jody L; Dart, Richard C

2015-04-01

Dramatic increases in the prescriptive use of opioid analgesics during the past two decades have been paralleled by alarming increases in rates of the abuse and intentional misuse of these drugs. We examined recent trends in the abuse and misuse and associated fatal outcomes among older adults (60+ years) and compared these to trends among younger adults (20-59 years). Trend analysis using linear regression models was used to analyze 184,136 cases and 1149 deaths associated with abuse and misuse of the prescription opioids oxycodone, fentanyl, hydrocodone, morphine, oxymorphone, hydromorphone, methadone, buprenorphine, tramadol, and tapentadol that were reported to participating U.S. Poison Centers of the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS(®)) System between 2006-Q1 and 2013-Q4. Rates of abuse and misuse of prescription opioids were lower for older adults than for younger adults; however, mortality rates among the older ages followed an increasing linear trend (P < 0.0001) and surpassed rates for younger adults in 2012 and 2013. In contrast, mortality rates among younger adults rose and fell during the period, with recent rates trending downward (P = 0.0003 for quadratic trend). Sub-analysis revealed an increasing linear trend among older adults specifically for suicidal intent (P < 0.0001), whereas these rates increased and then decreased among younger adults (P < 0.0001 for quadratic trend). Recent linear increases in rates of death and use of prescription opioids with suicidal intent among older adults have important implications as the U.S. undergoes a rapid expansion of its elderly population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Strength/Brittleness Classification of Igneous Intact Rocks Based on Basic Physical and Dynamic Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aligholi, Saeed; Lashkaripour, Gholam Reza; Ghafoori, Mohammad

2017-01-01

This paper sheds further light on the fundamental relationships between simple methods, rock strength, and brittleness of igneous rocks. In particular, the relationship between mechanical (point load strength index I s(50) and brittleness value S 20), basic physical (dry density and porosity), and dynamic properties (P-wave velocity and Schmidt rebound values) for a wide range of Iranian igneous rocks is investigated. First, 30 statistical models (including simple and multiple linear regression analyses) were built to identify the relationships between mechanical properties and simple methods. The results imply that rocks with different Schmidt hardness (SH) rebound values have different physicomechanical properties or relations. Second, using these results, it was proved that dry density, P-wave velocity, and SH rebound value provide a fine complement to mechanical properties classification of rock materials. Further, a detailed investigation was conducted on the relationships between mechanical and simple tests, which are established with limited ranges of P-wave velocity and dry density. The results show that strength values decrease with the SH rebound value. In addition, there is a systematic trend between dry density, P-wave velocity, rebound hardness, and brittleness value of the studied rocks, and rocks with medium hardness have a higher brittleness value. Finally, a strength classification chart and a brittleness classification table are presented, providing reliable and low-cost methods for the classification of igneous rocks.

Simple taper: Taper equations for the field forester

Treesearch

David R. Larsen

2017-01-01

"Simple taper" is set of linear equations that are based on stem taper rates; the intent is to provide taper equation functionality to field foresters. The equation parameters are two taper rates based on differences in diameter outside bark at two points on a tree. The simple taper equations are statistically equivalent to more complex equations. The linear...
Using Simple Linear Regression to Assess the Success of the Montreal Protocol in Reducing Atmospheric Chlorofluorocarbons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Dean

2009-01-01

Following the Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) recommendation to use real data, an example is presented in which simple linear regression is used to evaluate the effect of the Montreal Protocol on atmospheric concentration of chlorofluorocarbons. This simple set of data, obtained from a public archive, can…
Comparison of GPS tropospheric delays derived from two consecutive EPN reprocessing campaigns from the point of view of climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this research was to acquire information about consistency of ZTD (zenith total delay) linear trends and seasonal components between two consecutive GPS reprocessing campaigns. The analysis concerned two sets of the ZTD time series which were estimated during EUREF (Reference Frame Sub-Commission for Europe) EPN (Permanent Network) reprocessing campaigns according to 2008 and 2015 MUT AC (Military University of Technology Analysis Centre) scenarios. Firstly, Lomb-Scargle periodograms were generated for 57 EPN stations to obtain a characterisation of oscillations occurring in the ZTD time series. Then, the values of seasonal components and linear trends were estimated using the LSE (least squares estimation) approach. The Mann-Kendall trend test was also carried out to verify the presence of linear long-term ZTD changes. Finally, differences in seasonal signals and linear trends between these two data sets were investigated. All these analyses were conducted for the ZTD time series of two lengths: a shortened 16-year series and a full 18-year one. In the case of spectral analysis, amplitudes of the annual and semi-annual periods were almost exactly the same for both reprocessing campaigns. Exceptions were found for only a few stations and they did not exceed 1 mm. The estimated trends were also similar. However, for the reprocessing performed in 2008, the trends values were usually higher. In general, shortening of the analysed time period by 2 years resulted in a decrease of the linear trends values of about 0.07 mm yr-1. This was confirmed by analyses based on two data sets.
Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ojerholm, Eric, E-mail: eric.ojerholm@uphs.upenn.edu; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

Purpose: To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. Methods and Materials: We examined the authorship credits of “original research articles” within 2 popular radiation oncology journals–International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology–in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. Results: A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001).more » On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. Conclusions: The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards.« less
Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1926-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Kegel, Rainer; Harris, Neil R. P.

1998-04-01

Total ozone measurements have been made at Arosa, Switzerland (47°N), from 1926 through the present day, forming the longest total ozone series in the world. The record has been recently homogenized. Ozone trends are calculated to be -(2.3±0.6)% per decade for annual means (larger losses are found in winter and spring, approximately -4% per decade for trends in January, February, and March) when a simple linear change from 1970 to 1996 is assumed. In addition, total ozone trends are calculated using multiple regression models involving combinations of explanatory variables for the 11-year solar cycle, local meteorological conditions (the Mount Säntis high-altitude temperature record), stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanoes, and stratospheric chlorine loading. When the terms for the solar cycle, the stratospheric aerosol loading and the high mountain temperature record were included, the annually averaged ozone trends were found to be -(1.9±0.6)% per decade. While a statistically significant relation is found between total ozone and indices of aerosol loadings of the stratosphere, the recent decrease in total ozone cannot be accounted for by the higher average aerosol content in the second half of the century. Finally, the decrease in ozone in the stratosphere is estimated to be approximately 30% larger than that found for total ozone, when a crude estimate of the increase in tropospheric ozone is included. The acceleration observed in total ozone trends between the 1970s and the 1980s over northern midlatitudes [e.g., Harris et al., 1997] might be partially attributed to the larger increase in tropospheric ozone in the 1970s.
Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.
Analytical Studies on the Synchronization of a Network of Linearly-Coupled Simple Chaotic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivaganesh, G.; Arulgnanam, A.; Seethalakshmi, A. N.; Selvaraj, S.

2018-05-01

We present explicit generalized analytical solutions for a network of linearly-coupled simple chaotic systems. Analytical solutions are obtained for the normalized state equations of a network of linearly-coupled systems driven by a common chaotic drive system. Two parameter bifurcation diagrams revealing the various hidden synchronization regions, such as complete, phase and phase-lag synchronization are identified using the analytical results. The synchronization dynamics and their stability are studied using phase portraits and the master stability function, respectively. Further, experimental results for linearly-coupled simple chaotic systems are presented to confirm the analytical results. The synchronization dynamics of a network of chaotic systems studied analytically is reported for the first time.
Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.
Analysis of Zenith Tropospheric Delay above Europe based on long time series derived from the EPN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina; Kroszczynski, Krzysztof; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej

2015-04-01

In recent years, the GNSS system began to play an increasingly important role in the research related to the climate monitoring. Based on the GPS system, which has the longest operational capability in comparison with other systems, and a common computational strategy applied to all observations, long and homogeneous ZTD (Zenith Tropospheric Delay) time series were derived. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year ZTD time series obtained from the EPN (EUREF Permanent Network) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. To maintain the uniformity of data, analyzed period of time (1998-2013) is exactly the same for all stations - observations carried out before 1998 were removed from time series and observations processed using different strategy were recalculated according to the MUT LAC approach. For all 16-year time series (59 stations) Lomb-Scargle periodograms were created to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Due to strong annual oscillations which disturb the character of oscillations with smaller amplitude and thus hinder their investigation, Lomb-Scargle periodograms for time series with the deleted annual oscillations were created in order to verify presence of semi-annual, ter-annual and quarto-annual oscillations. Linear trend and seasonal components were estimated using LSE (Least Square Estimation) and Mann-Kendall trend test were used to confirm the presence of linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the effect of the length of time series on the estimated size of the linear trend, comparison between two different length of ZTD time series was performed. To carry out a comparative analysis, 30 stations which have been operating since 1996 were selected. For these stations two periods of time were analyzed: shortened 16-year (1998-2013) and full 18-year (1996-2013). For some stations an additional two years of observations have significant impact on changing the size of linear trend - only for 4 stations the size of linear trend was exactly the same for two periods of time. In one case, the nature of the trend has changed from negative (16-year time series) for positive (18-year time series). The average value of a linear trends for 16-year time series is 1,5 mm/decade, but their spatial distribution is not uniform. The average value of linear trends for all 18-year time series is 2,0 mm/decade, with better spatial distribution and smaller discrepancies.
Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

2016-12-01

A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with traditional crop models, but likely at the cost of removing climate information. Our random forest models consistently discover the positive trend without removing any additional data. The application of random forests as a statistical crop model provides insight into understanding the impact of dust on yields in marginal food producing regions.
Theoretical Investigations into Defected Graphene for Electrochemical Reduction of CO 2

DOE PAGES

Siahrostami, Samira; Jiang, Kun; Karamad, Mohammadreza; ...

2017-10-10

Here, despite numerous experimental efforts that have been dedicated to studying carbon-based materials for electrochemical reduction of CO 2, a rationalization of the associated trends in the intrinsic activity of different active motifs has so far been elusive. In the present work, we employ density functional theory calculations to examine a variety of different active sites in N-doped graphene to give a comprehensive outline of the trends in activity. We find that adsorption energies of COOH* and CO* do not follow the linear scaling relationships observed for the pure transition metals, and this unique scaling is rationalized through differences inmore » electronic structure between transition metals and defected graphene. This finding rationalizes most of the experimental observations on the carbon-based materials which present promising catalysts for the two-electron reduction of CO 2 to CO. With this simple thermodynamic analysis, we identify several active sites that are expected to exhibit a comparable or even better activity to the state-of-the-art gold catalyst, and several configurations are suggested to be selective for CO 2RR over HER.« less
Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Correlation and simple linear regression.

PubMed

Eberly, Lynn E

2007-01-01

This chapter highlights important steps in using correlation and simple linear regression to address scientific questions about the association of two continuous variables with each other. These steps include estimation and inference, assessing model fit, the connection between regression and ANOVA, and study design. Examples in microbiology are used throughout. This chapter provides a framework that is helpful in understanding more complex statistical techniques, such as multiple linear regression, linear mixed effects models, logistic regression, and proportional hazards regression.
Is there a signal of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay salinity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilton, T. W.; Najjar, R. G.; Zhong, L.; Li, M.

2008-09-01

We evaluate the hypothesis that sea-level rise over the second half of the 20th century has led to detectable increases in Chesapeake Bay salinity. We exploit a simple, statistical model that predicts monthly mean salinity as a function of Susquehanna River flow in 23 segments of the main stem Chesapeake Bay. The residual (observed minus modeled) salinity exhibits statistically significant linear (p < 0.05) trends between 1949 and 2006 in 13 of the 23 segments of the bay. The salinity change estimated from the trend line over this period varies from -2.0 to 2.2, with 10 of the 13 cells showing positive changes. The mean and median salinity changes over all 23 cells are 0.47 and 0.72; over the 13 cells with significant trends they are 0.71 and 1.1. We ran a hydrodynamic model of the bay under present-day and reduced sea level conditions and found a bay-average salinity increase of about 0.5, which supports the hypothesis that the salinity residual trends have a significant component due to sea-level rise. Uncertainties remain, however, due to the spatial and temporal extent of historical salinity data and the infilling of the bay due to sedimentation. The salinity residuals also exhibit interannual variability, with peaks occurring at intervals of roughly 7 to 9 years, which are partially explained by Atlantic Shelf salinity, Potomac River flow and the meridional component of wind stress.
Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116
[Phonological characteristics and rehabilitation training of abnormal velar in children with functional articulation disorders].

PubMed

Lina, Xu; Feng, Li; Yanyun, Zhang; Nan, Gao; Mingfang, Hu

2016-12-01

To explore the phonological characteristics and rehabilitation training of abnormal velar in patients with functional articulation disorders (FAD). Eighty-seven patients with FAD were observed of the phonological characteristics of velar. Seventy-two patients with abnormal velar accepted speech training. The correlation and simple linear regression analysis were carried out on abnormal velar articulation and age. The articulation disorder of /g/ mainly showed replacement by /d/, /b/ or omission. /k/ mainly showed replacement by /d/, /t/, /g/, /p/, /b/. /h/ mainly showed replacement by /g/, /f/, /p/, /b/ or omission. The common erroneous articulation forms of /g/, /k/, /h/ were fronting of tongue and replacement by bilabial consonants. When velar combined with vowels contained /a/ and /e/, the main error was fronting of tongue. When velar combined with vowels contained /u/, the errors trended to be replacement by bilabial consonants. After 3 to 10 times of speech training, the number of erroneous words decreased to (6.24±2.61) from (40.28±6.08) before the speech training was established, the difference was statistically significant (Z=-7.379, P=0.000). The number of erroneous words was negatively correlated with age (r=-0.691, P=0.000). The result of simple linear regression analysis showed that the determination coefficient was 0.472. The articulation disorder of velar mainly shows replacement, varies with the vowels. The targeted rehabilitation training hereby established is significantly effective. Age plays an important role in the outcome of velar.
Synchronous fluorescence spectroscopic study of solvatochromic curcumin dye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Digambara; Barakat, Christelle

2011-09-01

Curcumin, the main yellow bioactive component of turmeric, has recently acquired attention by chemists due its wide range of potential biological applications as an antioxidant, an anti-inflammatory, and an anti-carcinogenic agent. This molecule fluoresces weakly and poorly soluble in water. In this detailed study of curcumin in thirteen different solvents, both the absorption and fluorescence spectra of curcumin was found to be broad, however, a narrower and simple synchronous fluorescence spectrum of curcumin was obtained at Δ λ = 10-20 nm. Lippert-Mataga plot of curcumin in different solvents illustrated two sets of linearity which is consistent with the plot of Stokes' shift vs. the ET30. When Stokes's shift in wavenumber scale was replaced by synchronous fluorescence maximum in nanometer scale, the solvent polarity dependency measured by λSFSmax vs. Lippert-Mataga plot or ET30 values offered similar trends as measured via Stokes' shift for protic and aprotic solvents for curcumin. Better linear correlation of λSFSmax vs. π* scale of solvent polarity was found compared to λabsmax or λemmax or Stokes' shift measurements. In Stokes' shift measurement both absorption/excitation as well as emission (fluorescence) spectra are required to compute the Stokes' shift in wavenumber scale, but measurement could be done in a very fast and simple way by taking a single scan of SFS avoiding calculation and obtain information about polarity of the solvent. Curcumin decay properties in all the solvents could be fitted well to a double-exponential decay function.
Linearity of Mid-Continent Kimberlite-Carbonatite Magmatism, USA: Slab-Edge Focus as Alternative to Hot-Spot Track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke, G. I.; Carlson, R. W.

2009-12-01

The fates of subducted oceanic slabs at depth in the mantle are not well known, but linear trends of unusual magmatic products such as kimberlites and carbonatites might be used to track their past existence within the mantle. A N40°W linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites, and rocks of kimberlitic affinity, from the Black Hills (WY-SD) to Alberta, was suggested to have been caused by upwelling mantle material focused directly above the western edge of the subducted Kula plate stalled in the transition zone, with a slab window or “tear” to the southwest (Duke, 2009). In contrast, a linear zone of similar magmas to the south (a southerly extension of this N40°W linear trend, from Kansas to Louisiana) has been proposed to represent a hot spot trace produced by a mantle plume (“Bermuda Hot Spot”). Ongoing studies of ages and geochemistry of alkalic rocks along the N40°W trend from Louisiana to Alberta provide increasing evidence for a slab-edge model as the cause of the linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites in the mid-continent. In addition, seismic tomography indicates that the torn Farallon slab currently is stalled in the transition zone below the mid-continent, and an older slab is within the lower mantle farther to the east (Sigloch et al., 2008). These seismic data were interpreted as revealing the presence of the western edge of the Farallon plate trending roughly N40°W. The slab edge as projected to the surface is parallel to, but slightly west of, the trend of kimberlites and carbonatites at the mid-continent. Recently published ages show no clear age progression for the magmatism and thus do not support a hot-spot hypothesis for the linear trend. The isotopic compositions of the alkalic rocks show a genetic similarity among more recent magmas along the trend. There are at least four main pulses of magmatism along the trend at 110-85, 67-64, 55-52, and less than 50 Ma. Kimberlites and carbonatites in the northern section of the N40°W trend are the youngest of the northern group, with ages of ~48 to ≤ 46 Ma. The southern portion of the trend contains the oldest alkalic magmatism in Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana, with kimberlites in Kansas and carbonatites in Arkansas. The 67-64 Ma magmatic (or “reheating”) pulse was recorded along the entire trend from Louisiana to northern Montana. Multiple slabs and/or slab segmentation, and irregular convection may account for multiple magmatic pulses, although the 67-64 Ma magmatism across the entire continent is difficult to explain. Importantly, kimberlites and carbonatites represent the most recent, or part of the most recent, magmatism along the N40°W trend. This correlates with a change in proportion of source composition with time, as indicated by increasing positive epsilon Nd and Hf, lower 87Sr/86Sr, and higher 207Pb/204Pb, 206/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb. Thus, in each area where there exist precise age and isotopic data, magmatism began with a component that was dominantly lithospheric, followed by increasing proportions of asthenospheric component with time, culminating with kimberlitic or carbonatite magmatism.
Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

PubMed

Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

2017-05-04

Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.
Simple Test Functions in Meshless Local Petrov-Galerkin Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S.

2016-01-01

Two meshless local Petrov-Galerkin (MLPG) methods based on two different trial functions but that use a simple linear test function were developed for beam and column problems. These methods used generalized moving least squares (GMLS) and radial basis (RB) interpolation functions as trial functions. These two methods were tested on various patch test problems. Both methods passed the patch tests successfully. Then the methods were applied to various beam vibration problems and problems involving Euler and Beck's columns. Both methods yielded accurate solutions for all problems studied. The simple linear test function offers considerable savings in computing efforts as the domain integrals involved in the weak form are avoided. The two methods based on this simple linear test function method produced accurate results for frequencies and buckling loads. Of the two methods studied, the method with radial basis trial functions is very attractive as the method is simple, accurate, and robust.

How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

PubMed Central

Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

2017-01-01

Aim: Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Method: Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. Results: The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Conclusion: Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement. PMID:29134125
Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together
An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, P.; Karoly, D. J.; Newmann, P. A.; Clarkson, T. S.; Matthews, W. A.

1992-07-01

Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.
A simple nonlinear model for the return to isotropy in turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarkar, Sutanu; Speziale, Charles G.

1990-01-01

A quadratic nonlinear generalization of the linear Rotta model for the slow pressure-strain correlation of turbulence is developed. The model is shown to satisfy realizability and to give rise to no stable nontrivial equilibrium solutions for the anisotropy tensor in the case of vanishing mean velocity gradients. The absence of stable nontrivial equilibrium solutions is a necessary condition to ensure that the model predicts a return to isotropy for all relaxational turbulent flows. Both the phase space dynamics and the temporal behavior of the model are examined and compared against experimental data for the return to isotropy problem. It is demonstrated that the quadratic model successfully captures the experimental trends which clearly exhibit nonlinear behavior. Direct comparisons are also made with the predictions of the Rotta model and the Lumley model.
Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.
Temperature and geographic attribution of change in the Taraxacum mongolicum growing season from 1990 to 2009 in eastern China's temperate zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Tian, Youhua; Xu, Lin

2015-10-01

Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.1 days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.1 days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.1 days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 1 °C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.1 days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 1 °C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.3 days in regional mean growing season end date. A 1 °C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.7 days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 1 °C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 1 °C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.
Structural and lithologic study of northern coast ranges and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The pattern of linear systems within the project area has been extended into the western foothill belt of the Sierra Nevada. The chief pattern of linear features in the western Sierran foothill belt trends about N. 10 - 15 deg W., but in the vicinity of the Feather River the trend of the features abruptly changes to about N. 50-60 deg W and appears to be contiguous across the Sacramento Valley with a similar system of linear features in the Coast Ranges. The linear features in the Modoc Plateau and Klamath Mt. areas appear unrelated to the systems detected in the Coast Ranges of Sierran foothill belt. Although the change in trend of the Sierran structural features has been previously suggested and the interrelationship of the Klamath Mt. region with the northern Sierra Nevadas has been postulated, the data obtained from the ERTS-1 imagery strengthens these notions and provides for the first time evidence of a direct connection of the structural trends within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. In addition rocks of Pleistocene and Holocene age are offset by some of the linear features seen on ERTS-1 imagery and hence may record the latest episode of geologic deformation in north-central California.
ON EDGE CHIPPING TESTING AND SOME PERSONAL PERSPECTIVES ON THE STATE OF THE ART OF MECHANICAL TESTING

PubMed Central

Quinn, G. D.

2014-01-01

Objective The edge chipping test is used to measure the fracture resistance of dental restoration ceramics and resin composites. This paper focuses on the progress of evaluating chipping resistance of these materials and also on the progress of standardization of this test method. This paper also makes observations about the state of the art of mechanical testing of ceramic and composite restorative materials in general. Interlaboratory comparative studies (“round robins”) are recommended. Methods An edge chipping machine was used to evaluate dozens of materials including porcelains, glass ceramics, aluminas, zirconias, filled resin-composites, new hybrid ceramic-resin composites, laminated composite ceramics, and even polymethyl methacrylate based denture materials. Force versus distance data were collected over a broad range with different indenters. Several chipping resistance parameters were quantified. Results Older restorative materials such as feldspathic porcelains and veneering materials had limited chipping resistance, but more modern ceramics and filled composites show significant improvements. A yttria-partially stabilized zirconia had the greatest resistance to chipping. Much of the early work on edge chipping resistance of brittle materials emphasized linear force versus distance trends obtained with relatively blunt Rockwell C indenters. More recently, trends for dental restorative materials with alternative sharper indenters have been nonlinear. A new phenomenological model with a simple quadratic function fits all data exceptionally well. It is loosely based on an energy balance between indenter work and fracture and deformation energies in the chipped material. Significance Although a direct comparison of our laboratory scale tests on idealized simple geometries to clinical outcomes has not yet been done, anecdotal evidence suggests the procedure does produce clinically relevant rankings and outcomes. Despite the variations in the trends and indenters, comparisons between materials can easily be made by chipping convenient block-shaped specimens with sharp conical 120°, Vickers, or Rockwell C indenters at a defined edge distance of 0.5 mm. Broad distance ranges are recommended for trend evaluation. This work has provided important information for standardization. PMID:25244927
Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.
Morse Code, Scrabble, and the Alphabet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Mary; Gabrosek, John; Reischman, Diann; Curtiss, Phyliss

2004-01-01

In this paper we describe an interactive activity that illustrates simple linear regression. Students collect data and analyze it using simple linear regression techniques taught in an introductory applied statistics course. The activity is extended to illustrate checks for regression assumptions and regression diagnostics taught in an…
A Simple Method to Control Positive Baseline Trend within Data Nonoverlap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parker, Richard I.; Vannest, Kimberly J.; Davis, John L.

2014-01-01

Nonoverlap is widely used as a statistical summary of data; however, these analyses rarely correct unwanted positive baseline trend. This article presents and validates the graph rotation for overlap and trend (GROT) technique, a hand calculation method for controlling positive baseline trend within an analysis of data nonoverlap. GROT is…
The linear trend of headache prevalence and some headache features in school children.

PubMed

Ozge, Aynur; Buğdayci, Resul; Saşmaz, Tayyar; Kaleağasi, Hakan; Kurt, Oner; Karakelle, Ali; Siva, Aksel

2007-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the age and sex dependent linear trend of recurrent headache prevalence in schoolchildren in Mersin. A stratified sample composed of 5562 children; detailed characteristics were previously published. In this study the prevalence distribution of headache by age and sex showed a peak in the female population at the age of 11 (27.2%) with a plateau in the following years. The great stratified random sample results suggested that, in addition to socio-demographic features, detailed linear trend analysis showed headache features of children with headache have some specific characteristics dependent on age, gender and headache type. This study results can constitute a basis for the future epidemiological based studies.
Applicability of computer-aided comprehensive tool (LINDA: LINeament Detection and Analysis) and shaded digital elevation model for characterizing and interpreting morphotectonic features from lineaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoud, Alaa; Koike, Katsuaki

2017-09-01

Detection and analysis of linear features related to surface and subsurface structures have been deemed necessary in natural resource exploration and earth surface instability assessment. Subjectivity in choosing control parameters required in conventional methods of lineament detection may cause unreliable results. To reduce this ambiguity, we developed LINDA (LINeament Detection and Analysis), an integrated tool with graphical user interface in Visual Basic. This tool automates processes of detection and analysis of linear features from grid data of topography (digital elevation model; DEM), gravity and magnetic surfaces, as well as data from remote sensing imagery. A simple interface with five display windows forms a user-friendly interactive environment. The interface facilitates grid data shading, detection and grouping of segments, lineament analyses for calculating strike and dip and estimating fault type, and interactive viewing of lineament geometry. Density maps of the center and intersection points of linear features (segments and lineaments) are also included. A systematic analysis of test DEMs and Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery datasets in the North and South Eastern Deserts of Egypt is implemented to demonstrate the capability of LINDA and correct use of its functions. Linear features from the DEM are superior to those from the imagery in terms of frequency, but both linear features agree with location and direction of V-shaped valleys and dykes and reference fault data. Through the case studies, LINDA applicability is demonstrated to highlight dominant structural trends, which can aid understanding of geodynamic frameworks in any region.
Prediction of siRNA potency using sparse logistic regression.

PubMed

Hu, Wei; Hu, John

2014-06-01

RNA interference (RNAi) can modulate gene expression at post-transcriptional as well as transcriptional levels. Short interfering RNA (siRNA) serves as a trigger for the RNAi gene inhibition mechanism, and therefore is a crucial intermediate step in RNAi. There have been extensive studies to identify the sequence characteristics of potent siRNAs. One such study built a linear model using LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) to measure the contribution of each siRNA sequence feature. This model is simple and interpretable, but it requires a large number of nonzero weights. We have introduced a novel technique, sparse logistic regression, to build a linear model using single-position specific nucleotide compositions which has the same prediction accuracy of the linear model based on LASSO. The weights in our new model share the same general trend as those in the previous model, but have only 25 nonzero weights out of a total 84 weights, a 54% reduction compared to the previous model. Contrary to the linear model based on LASSO, our model suggests that only a few positions are influential on the efficacy of the siRNA, which are the 5' and 3' ends and the seed region of siRNA sequences. We also employed sparse logistic regression to build a linear model using dual-position specific nucleotide compositions, a task LASSO is not able to accomplish well due to its high dimensional nature. Our results demonstrate the superiority of sparse logistic regression as a technique for both feature selection and regression over LASSO in the context of siRNA design.
The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

PubMed

Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

2011-09-01

Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.
Changes in antibiotic usage and susceptibility in nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates following the introduction of ertapenem to hospital formulary.

PubMed

Graber, C J; Hutchings, C; Dong, F; Lee, W; Chung, J K; Tran, T

2012-01-01

There is concern that widespread usage of ertapenem may promote cross-resistance to other carbapenems. To analyse the impact that adding ertapenem to our hospital formulary had on usage of other broad-spectrum agents and on susceptibilities of nosocomial Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates, we performed interrupted time-series analyses to determine the change in linear trend in antibiotic usage and change in mean proportion and linear trend of susceptibility pre- (March 2004-June 2005) and post- (July 2005-December 2008) ertapenem introduction. Usage of piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·0013) and ampicillin-sulbactam (P=0·035) declined post-ertapenem introduction. For Enterobacteriaceae, the mean proportion susceptible to ciprofloxacin (P=0·016) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·038) increased, while the linear trend in susceptibility significantly increased for cefepime (P=0·012) but declined for ceftriaxone (P=0·0032). For Pseudomonas, the mean proportion susceptible to cefepime (P=0·011) and piperacillin-tazobactam (P=0·028) increased, as did the linear trend in susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (P=0·028). Notably, no significant changes in carbapenem susceptibility were observed.
Combining nonoverlap and trend for single-case research: Tau-U.

PubMed

Parker, Richard I; Vannest, Kimberly J; Davis, John L; Sauber, Stephanie B

2011-06-01

A new index for analysis of single-case research data was proposed, Tau-U, which combines nonoverlap between phases with trend from within the intervention phase. In addition, it provides the option of controlling undesirable Phase A trend. The derivation of Tau-U from Kendall's Rank Correlation and the Mann-Whitney U test between groups is demonstrated. The equivalence of trend and nonoverlap is also shown, with supportive citations from field leaders. Tau-U calculations are demonstrated for simple AB and ABA designs. Tau-U is then field tested on a sample of 382 published data series. Controlling undesirable Phase A trend caused only a modest change from nonoverlap. The inclusion of Phase B trend yielded more modest results than simple nonoverlap. The Tau-U score distribution did not show the artificial ceiling shown by all other nonoverlap techniques. It performed reasonably well with autocorrelated data. Tau-U shows promise for single-case applications, but further study is desirable. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Timeline trend profile and seasonal variations in nicotine present in ambient PM10 samples: A four year investigation from Delhi region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Shweta; Tandon, Ankit; Attri, Arun K.

2014-12-01

The detection of nicotine, an organic tracer for Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS), in the collected PM10 samples from Delhi region's ambient environment, in a appropriately designed investigation was initiated over four years (2006-2009) to: (1) Comprehend seasonal and inter-annual variations in the nicotine present in PM10; (2) Extract regression based linear trend profile manifested by nicotine in PM10; (3) Determine the non-linear trend timeline from the nicotine data, and compare it with the obtained linear trend; (4) Suggest the possible use of the designed experiment and analysis to have a qualitative appraisal of Tobacco Smoking activity in the sampling region. The PM10 samples were collected in a monthly time-series sequence at a known receptor site. Quantitative estimates of nicotine (ng m-3) were made by using a Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (TD-GC/MS). The annual average concentrations of nicotine (ng m-3) were 516 ± 302 (2008) > 494 ± 301 (2009) > 438 ± 250 (2007) > 325 ± 149 (2006). The estimated linear trend of 5.4 ng m-3 month-1 corresponded to 16.3% per annum increase in the PM10 associated nicotine. The industrial production of India's tobacco index normalized to Delhi region's consumption, pegged an increase at 10.5% per annum over this period.
A simple smoothness indicator for the WENO scheme with adaptive order

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Cong; Chen, Li Li

2018-01-01

The fifth order WENO scheme with adaptive order is competent for solving hyperbolic conservation laws, its reconstruction is a convex combination of a fifth order linear reconstruction and three third order linear reconstructions. Note that, on uniform mesh, the computational cost of smoothness indicator for fifth order linear reconstruction is comparable with the sum of ones for three third order linear reconstructions, thus it is too heavy; on non-uniform mesh, the explicit form of smoothness indicator for fifth order linear reconstruction is difficult to be obtained, and its computational cost is much heavier than the one on uniform mesh. In order to overcome these problems, a simple smoothness indicator for fifth order linear reconstruction is proposed in this paper.
Simulation of Rainfall Variability Over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and vegetation on precipitation over West Africa is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4.x/T42. Ensemble experiments -driven with observed SST- show that At- lantic SST has a significant influence on JJA precipitation over West Africa. Four- teen experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropi- cal Atlantic only caused significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive SSTA increasing rainfall and a negative reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, es- pecially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. Four simulations with a coupled model (the simple dynamic vegetation model (SVege) and the ECHAM4-AGCM were coupled) were also performed, driven with observed SST from 1945 to 1998. The standard ECHAM-AGCM -forced by the same observed SST- was able to reproduce the drying trend from the fifties to the mid-eighties in the Sahel, but failed to mirror the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies. The coupled model was not only able to reproduce this drying trend, but was also able to better reproduce the amplitudes of the rainfall anomalies. The dynamic vegetation acted like an amplifier, increasing the SST induced rainfall anomalies.

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.
Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.
Reductions in nitrogen oxides over Europe driven by environmental policy and economic recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, P.; Boersma, K. F.

2012-04-01

We present a trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 for the time period of 2004-2010 over Europe. Necessary for monitoring pollution abatement strategies, NO2 trends analyses are often based on surface networks, which suffer from poorly quantified NO2 biases and spatial representativity issues inherent to the standard monitoring method. Space based NO2 trends are unbiased and self-consistent, but over Europe they have not been as obvious as those observed over North America and East Asia. In this work we exploit the daily NO2 column observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in order to isolate long-term (timescales greater than one year) variability in NO2 over Europe using a time-series separation technique. In general, we find between 2005 and 2008, 1-5% per year declines in NO2 concentration in many polluted regions (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain). In 2009, NO2 almost exclusively decreased over Europe at a rate of 5-10% per year, coinciding with the abrupt decrease in industrial production and construction prompted by the global economic crisis. Thus by the end of 2010, we find substantial reductions in NO2 concentrations of at least 20% throughout Europe. These reductions are as much the result of temporary reductions prompted by the 2008-2009 global economic recession, as of European NOx emission controls. Our results demonstrate that realistic concentration pathways of NO2 do not follow simple linear trends, but reflect a compilation of environmental policy and economic activity.
Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Long-term variability and changes of the precipitation regime in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2014-05-01

This paper presents an examination of precipitation amounts in Pakistan. For this purpose, the annual precipitation and the annual number of precipitation days have been calculated, and a study aimed at investigating precipitation intensity and decadal changes was conducted. Precipitation trends have been calculated using a simple linear regression method and Kendall's tau-based test. To assess stability and differences, a 10-year span was determined for each precipitation region for the period of 1951-2010. This study focused on the three CLINO (Climatological Normal) periods, namely 1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010 (the latest global standard normal period). Results confirm the gradual increase of annual precipitation in southwestern coastal areas of Pakistan and Cholistan desert. With regard to annual number of precipitation days, in the central part of the country negative trends were evident for wet days (with precipitation ≧ 0.1 mm), while the number of rainy days (with precipitation ≧ 1 mm) displayed a prominent positive trend. The series of the precipitation intensity gives evidence of a minor decrease in the Baluchistan Plateau, sub-Himalayas, and Potwar Plateau during the study period. Examination of secular trends evidenced that the Murree hills, the upper Indus plain, and the northwestern Baluchistan plateau have had shifts in their precipitation regime towards drier conditions, while the central plain, the northwestern mountains, and the southern part of the country are shifting in their precipitation regime towards wetter conditions. Description among the means of precipitation amounts suggests that "normal" precipitation data for various national projects should be calculated for the last 30 years.
Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.
Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.
Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.
Correlation and simple linear regression.

PubMed

Zou, Kelly H; Tuncali, Kemal; Silverman, Stuart G

2003-06-01

In this tutorial article, the concepts of correlation and regression are reviewed and demonstrated. The authors review and compare two correlation coefficients, the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rho, for measuring linear and nonlinear relationships between two continuous variables. In the case of measuring the linear relationship between a predictor and an outcome variable, simple linear regression analysis is conducted. These statistical concepts are illustrated by using a data set from published literature to assess a computed tomography-guided interventional technique. These statistical methods are important for exploring the relationships between variables and can be applied to many radiologic studies.
Tectonic significance of porosity and permeability regimes in the red beds formations of the South Georgia Rift Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akintunde, Olusoga M.; Knapp, Camelia C.; Knapp, James H.

2014-09-01

A simple, new porosity/permeability-depth profile was developed from available laboratory measurements on Triassic sedimentary red beds (sandstone) from parts of the South Georgia Rift (SGR) basin in order to investigate the feasibility for long-term CO2 storage. The study locations were: Sumter, Berkeley, Dunbarton, Clubhouse Crossroad-3 (CC-3) and Norris Lightsey wells. As expected, both porosity and permeability show changes with depth at the regional scale that was much greater than at local scale. The significant changes in porosity and permeability with depth suggest a highly compacted, deformed basin, and potentially, a history of uplift and erosion. The permeability is generally low both at shallow (less than 1826 ft/556.56 m) and deeper depths (greater than 1826 ft/556.56 m). Both porosity and permeability follow the normal trend, decreasing linearly with depth for most parts of the study locations with the exception of the Norris Lightsey well. A petrophysical study on a suite of well logs penetrating the Norris Lightsey red beds at depths sampled by the core-derived laboratory measurements shows an abnormal shift (by 50%) in the acoustic travel time and/or in the sonic-derived P-wave velocity that indicates possible faulting or fracturing at depth. The departure of the Norris Lightsey's porosities and permeabilities from the normal compaction trend may be a consequence of the existence of a fault/fracture controlled abnormal pressure condition at depth. The linear and non-linear behaviors of the porosity/permeability distribution throughout the basin imply the composition of the SGR red beds, and by extension analog/similar Triassic-Jurassic formations within the Eastern North American Margin have been altered by compaction, uplift, erosion and possible faulting that have shaped the evolution of these Triassic formations following the major phase of rifting.
Teaching the Concept of Breakdown Point in Simple Linear Regression.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Wai-Sum

2001-01-01

Most introductory textbooks on simple linear regression analysis mention the fact that extreme data points have a great influence on ordinary least-squares regression estimation; however, not many textbooks provide a rigorous mathematical explanation of this phenomenon. Suggests a way to fill this gap by teaching students the concept of breakdown…
Evaluation of the CEAS model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The CEAS yield model is based upon multiple regression analysis at the CRD and state levels. For the historical time series, yield is regressed on a set of variables derived from monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation. Technological trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadriatic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-79) demonstrated that biases are small and performance as indicated by the root mean square errors are acceptable for intended application, however, model response for individual years particularly unusual years, is not very reliable and shows some large errors. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple and not costly. It considers scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.
The application of an atomistic J-integral to a ductile crack.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Jonathan A; Jones, Reese E

2013-04-17

In this work we apply a Lagrangian kernel-based estimator of continuum fields to atomic data to estimate the J-integral for the emission dislocations from a crack tip. Face-centered cubic (fcc) gold and body-centered cubic (bcc) iron modeled with embedded atom method (EAM) potentials are used as example systems. The results of a single crack with a K-loading compare well to an analytical solution from anisotropic linear elastic fracture mechanics. We also discovered that in the post-emission of dislocations from the crack tip there is a loop size-dependent contribution to the J-integral. For a system with a finite width crack loaded in simple tension, the finite size effects for the systems that were feasible to compute prevented precise agreement with theory. However, our results indicate that there is a trend towards convergence.
A simple nonlinear model for the return to isotropy in turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarkar, Sutanu; Speziale, Charles G.

1989-01-01

A quadratic nonlinear generalization of the linear Rotta model for the slow pressure-strain correlation of turbulence is developed. The model is shown to satisfy realizability and to give rise to no stable non-trivial equilibrium solutions for the anisotropy tensor in the case of vanishing mean velocity gradients. The absence of stable non-trivial equilibrium solutions is a necessary condition to ensure that the model predicts a return to isotropy for all relaxational turbulent flows. Both the phase space dynamics and the temporal behavior of the model are examined and compared against experimental data for the return to isotropy problem. It is demonstrated that the quadratic model successfully captures the experimental trends which clearly exhibit nonlinear behavior. Direct comparisons are also made with the predictions of the Rotta model and the Lumley model.
Evaluation of the Williams-type model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The Williams-type yield model is based on multiple regression analysis of historial time series data at CRD level pooled to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analysis include USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, soil texture and topographic information, and variables derived from these. Technologic trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadratic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-1979) demonstrate that biases are small and performance based on root mean square appears to be acceptable for the intended AgRISTARS large area applications. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple, and not costly. It consideres scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.
Linear analysis of auto-organization in Hebbian neural networks.

PubMed

Carlos Letelier, J; Mpodozis, J

1995-01-01

The self-organization of neurotopies where neural connections follow Hebbian dynamics is framed in terms of linear operator theory. A general and exact equation describing the time evolution of the overall synaptic strength connecting two neural laminae is derived. This linear matricial equation, which is similar to the equations used to describe oscillating systems in physics, is modified by the introduction of non-linear terms, in order to capture self-organizing (or auto-organizing) processes. The behavior of a simple and small system, that contains a non-linearity that mimics a metabolic constraint, is analyzed by computer simulations. The emergence of a simple "order" (or degree of organization) in this low-dimensionality model system is discussed.
Synchronous fluorescence spectroscopic study of solvatochromic curcumin dye.

PubMed

Patra, Digambara; Barakat, Christelle

2011-09-01

Curcumin, the main yellow bioactive component of turmeric, has recently acquired attention by chemists due its wide range of potential biological applications as an antioxidant, an anti-inflammatory, and an anti-carcinogenic agent. This molecule fluoresces weakly and poorly soluble in water. In this detailed study of curcumin in thirteen different solvents, both the absorption and fluorescence spectra of curcumin was found to be broad, however, a narrower and simple synchronous fluorescence spectrum of curcumin was obtained at Δλ=10-20 nm. Lippert-Mataga plot of curcumin in different solvents illustrated two sets of linearity which is consistent with the plot of Stokes' shift vs. the ET30. When Stokes's shift in wavenumber scale was replaced by synchronous fluorescence maximum in nanometer scale, the solvent polarity dependency measured by λSFSmax vs. Lippert-Mataga plot or ET30 values offered similar trends as measured via Stokes' shift for protic and aprotic solvents for curcumin. Better linear correlation of λSFSmax vs. π* scale of solvent polarity was found compared to λabsmax or λemmax or Stokes' shift measurements. In Stokes' shift measurement both absorption/excitation as well as emission (fluorescence) spectra are required to compute the Stokes' shift in wavenumber scale, but measurement could be done in a very fast and simple way by taking a single scan of SFS avoiding calculation and obtain information about polarity of the solvent. Curcumin decay properties in all the solvents could be fitted well to a double-exponential decay function. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Regional trace gas monitoring simplified - A linear retrieval scheme for carbon monoxide from hyperspectral soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Huang, A.; Weisz, E.; Annegarn, H. J.

2011-12-01

The Fast Linear Inversion Trace gas System (FLITS) is designed to retrieve tropospheric total column trace gas densities [molec.cm-2] from space-borne hyperspectral infrared soundings. The objective to develop a new retrieval scheme was motivated by the need for near real-time air quality monitoring at high spatial resolution. We present a case study of FLITS carbon monoxide (CO) retrievals from daytime (descending orbit) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements that have a 0.5 cm-1 spectral resolution and 12 km footprint at nadir. The standard Level 2 IASI CO retrieval product (COL2) is available in near real-time but is spatially averaged over 2 x 2 pixels, or 50 x 50 km, and thus more suitable for global analysis. The study region is Southern Africa (south of the equator) for the period 28-31 August 2008. An atmospheric background estimate is obtained from a chemical transport model, emissivity from regional measurements and surface temperature (ST) from space-borne retrievals. The CO background error is set to 10%. FLITS retrieves CO by assuming a simple linear relationship between the IASI measurements and background estimate of the atmosphere and surface parameters. This differs from the COL2 algorithm that treats CO retrieval as a moderately non-linear problem. When compared to COL2, the FLITS retrievals display similar trends in distribution and transport of CO over time with the advantage of an improved spatial resolution (single-pixel). The value of the averaging kernel (A) is consistently above 0.5 and indicates that FLITS retrievals have a stable dependence on the measurement. This stability is achieved through careful channel selection in the strongest CO absorption lines (2050-2225 cm-1) and joint retrieval with skin temperature (IASI sensitivity to CO is highly correlated with ST), thus no spatial averaging is necessary. We conclude that the simplicity and stability of FLITS make it useful first as a research tool, i.e. the algorithm is easy to understand and computationally simple enough to run on most desktop computers, and second, as an operational tool that can calculate near real-time CO retrievals at instrument resolution for regional monitoring.
Valid statistical approaches for analyzing sholl data: Mixed effects versus simple linear models.

PubMed

Wilson, Machelle D; Sethi, Sunjay; Lein, Pamela J; Keil, Kimberly P

2017-03-01

The Sholl technique is widely used to quantify dendritic morphology. Data from such studies, which typically sample multiple neurons per animal, are often analyzed using simple linear models. However, simple linear models fail to account for intra-class correlation that occurs with clustered data, which can lead to faulty inferences. Mixed effects models account for intra-class correlation that occurs with clustered data; thus, these models more accurately estimate the standard deviation of the parameter estimate, which produces more accurate p-values. While mixed models are not new, their use in neuroscience has lagged behind their use in other disciplines. A review of the published literature illustrates common mistakes in analyses of Sholl data. Analysis of Sholl data collected from Golgi-stained pyramidal neurons in the hippocampus of male and female mice using both simple linear and mixed effects models demonstrates that the p-values and standard deviations obtained using the simple linear models are biased downwards and lead to erroneous rejection of the null hypothesis in some analyses. The mixed effects approach more accurately models the true variability in the data set, which leads to correct inference. Mixed effects models avoid faulty inference in Sholl analysis of data sampled from multiple neurons per animal by accounting for intra-class correlation. Given the widespread practice in neuroscience of obtaining multiple measurements per subject, there is a critical need to apply mixed effects models more widely. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Surgery for left ventricular aneurysm: early and late survival after simple linear repair and endoventricular patch plasty.

PubMed

Lundblad, Runar; Abdelnoor, Michel; Svennevig, Jan Ludvig

2004-09-01

Simple linear resection and endoventricular patch plasty are alternative techniques to repair postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm. The aim of the study was to compare these 2 methods with regard to early mortality and long-term survival. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients undergoing operations between 1989 and 2003. The epidemiologic design was of an exposed (simple linear repair, n = 74) versus nonexposed (endoventricular patch plasty, n = 85) cohort with 2 endpoints: early mortality and long-term survival. The crude effect of aneurysm repair technique versus endpoint was estimated by odds ratio, rate ratio, or relative risk and their 95% confidence intervals. Stratification analysis by using the Mantel-Haenszel method was done to quantify confounders and pinpoint effect modifiers. Adjustment for multiconfounders was performed by using logistic regression and Cox regression analysis. Survival curves were analyzed with the Breslow test and the log-rank test. Early mortality was 8.2% for all patients, 13.5% after linear repair and 3.5% after endoventricular patch plasty. When adjusted for multiconfounders, the risk of early mortality was significantly higher after simple linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-17.8). Mean follow-up was 5.8 +/- 3.8 years (range, 0-14.0 years). Overall 5-year cumulative survival was 78%, 70.1% after linear repair and 91.4% after endoventricular patch plasty. The risk of total mortality was significantly higher after linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty when controlled for multiconfounders (relative risk, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-9.7). Linear repair dominated early in the series and patch plasty dominated later, giving a possible learning-curve bias in favor of patch plasty that could not be adjusted for in the regression analysis. Postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm can be repaired with satisfactory early and late results. Surgical risk was lower and long-term survival was higher after endoventricular patch plasty than simple linear repair. Differences in outcome should be interpreted with care because of the retrospective study design and the chronology of the 2 repair methods.

Separation of Trend and Chaotic Components of Time Series and Estimation of Their Characteristics by Linear Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kryanev, A. V.; Ivanov, V. V.; Romanova, A. O.; Sevastyanov, L. A.; Udumyan, D. K.

2018-03-01

This paper considers the problem of separating the trend and the chaotic component of chaotic time series in the absence of information on the characteristics of the chaotic component. Such a problem arises in nuclear physics, biomedicine, and many other applied fields. The scheme has two stages. At the first stage, smoothing linear splines with different values of smoothing parameter are used to separate the "trend component." At the second stage, the method of least squares is used to find the unknown variance σ2 of the noise component.
Spacecraft-borne long life cryogenic refrigeration: Status and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, A. L.

1983-01-01

The status of cryogenic refrigerator development intended for, or possibly applicable to, long life spacecraft-borne application is reviewed. Based on these efforts, the general development trends are identified. Using currently projected technology needs, the various trends are compared and evaluated. The linear drive, non-contacting bearing Stirling cycle refrigerator concept appears to be the best current approach that will meet the technology projection requirements for spacecraft-borne cryogenic refrigerators. However, a multiply redundant set of lightweight, moderate life, moderate reliability Stirling cycle cryogenic refrigerators using high-speed linear drive and sliding contact bearings may possibly suffice.
Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics. Methods The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time. Results During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%). Conclusions Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. PMID:23414557
Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinowska, Miroslawa

2017-12-01

The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.
Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.
Ranking Forestry Investments With Parametric Linear Programming

Treesearch

Paul A. Murphy

1976-01-01

Parametric linear programming is introduced as a technique for ranking forestry investments under multiple constraints; it combines the advantages of simple tanking and linear programming as capital budgeting tools.
Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

2017-12-01

North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.
Using Generalized Additive Models to Analyze Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Sullivan, Kristynn

2013-01-01

Many analyses for single-case designs (SCDs)--including nearly all the effect size indicators-- currently assume no trend in the data. Regression and multilevel models allow for trend, but usually test only linear trend and have no principled way of knowing if higher order trends should be represented in the model. This paper shows how Generalized…
Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784
Light and short arc rubs in rotating machines: Experimental tests and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennacchi, P.; Bachschmid, N.; Tanzi, E.

2009-10-01

Rotor-to-stator rub is a non-linear phenomenon which has been analyzed many times in rotordynamics literature, but very often these studies are devoted simply to highlight non-linearities, using very simple rotors, rather than to present reliable models. However, rotor-to-stator rub is actually one of the most common faults during the operation of rotating machinery. The frequency of its occurrence is increasing due to the trend of reducing the radial clearance between the seal and the rotor in modern turbine units, pumps and compressors in order to increase efficiency. Often the rub occurs between rotor and seals and the analysis of the phenomenon cannot set aside the consideration of the different relative stiffness. This paper presents some experimental results obtained by means of a test rig in which rub conditions of real machines are reproduced. In particular short arc rubs are considered and the shaft is stiffer than the obstacle. Then a model, suitable to be employed for real rotating machinery, is presented and the simulations obtained are compared with the experimental results. The model is able to reproduce the behaviour of the test rig.
Photon catalysis acting as noiseless linear amplification and its application in coherence enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shengli; Zhang, Xiangdong

2018-04-01

Photon catalysis is an intriguing quantum mechanical operation during which no photon is added to or subtracted from the relevant optical system. However, we prove that photon catalysis is in essence equivalent to the simpler but more efficient noiseless linear amplifier. This provides a simple and zero-energy-input method for enhancing quantum coherence. We show that the coherence enhancement holds both for a coherent state and a two-mode squeezed vacuum (TMSV) state. For the TMSV state, biside photon catalysis is shown to be equivalent to two times the single-side photon catalysis, and two times the photon catalysis does not provide a substantial enhancement of quantum coherence compared with single-side catalysis. We further extend our investigation to the performance of coherence enhancement with a more realistic photon catalysis scheme where a heralded approximated single-photon state and an on-off detector are exploited. Moreover, we investigate the influence of an imperfect photon detector and the result shows that the amplification effect of photon catalysis is insensitive to the detector inefficiency. Finally, we apply the coherence measure to quantum illumination and see the same trend of performance improvement as coherence enhancement is identified in practical quantum target detection.
Relation of nitrate concentrations to baseflow in the Raccoon River, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, K.E.; Lutz, D.S.

2004-01-01

Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) export from the Raccoon River in west central Iowa is an environmental concern to downstream receptors. The 1972 to 2000 record of daily streamflow and the results from 981 nitrate measurements were examined to describe the relation of nitrate to streamflow in the Raccoon River. No long term trends in streamflow and nitrate concentrations were noted in the 28-year record. Strong seasonal patterns were evident in nitrate concentrations, with higher concentrations occurring in spring and fall. Nitrate concentrations were linearly related to streamflow at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. At all time scales evaluated, the relation was improved when baseflow was used as the discharge variable instead of total streamflow. Nitrate concentrations were found to be highly stratified according to flow, but there was little relation of nitrate to streamflow within each flow range. Simple linear regression models developed to predict monthly mean nitrate concentrations explained as much as 76 percent of the variability in the monthly nitrate concentration data for 2001. Extrapolation of current nitrate baseflow relations to historical conditions in the Raccoon River revealed that increasing baseflow over the 20th century could account for a measurable increase in nitrate concentrations.
Martian lineaments from Mariner 6 and 7 photographs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Ingerson, F. E.

1973-01-01

Mariner 6 and 7 photographs were used to investigate the nature and importance of linear surface trends on Mars. Cross correlations of frequency-azimuth distributions of linear trends from different Mariner frames indicate that lineations not recognized as topographic features have a component of pseudoforms, probably introduced during digital reconstruction of the pictures. Similar statistical tests may aid in the analysis of surface trends from future satellites and space probes. The most reliable data were separated into photometrically defined provinces. Meridiani Sinus and Margaritifer Sinus display five major trends in common, which are interpreted as extensions of crustal weaknesses related to the enormous equatorial canyon revealed in Mariner 6 and 9 pictures. Alignments of crater wall segments generally match these trends and suggest structural control of crater plan. Crater chains, however, do not match these trends and are interpreted as secondary impacts. Rose diagrams of lineations in Deucalionis Regio exhibit much more complexity and are believed to reflect a better preserved or more complex geologic history.
Correlation among electronegativity, cation polarizability, optical basicity and single bond strength of simple oxides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dimitrov, Vesselin, E-mail: vesselin@uctm.edu; Komatsu, Takayuki, E-mail: komatsu@mst.nagaokaut.ac.jp

2012-12-15

A suitable relationship between free-cation polarizability and electronegativity of elements in different valence states and with the most common coordination numbers has been searched on the basis of the similarity in physical nature of both quantities. In general, the cation polarizability increases with decreasing element electronegativity. A systematic periodic change in the polarizability against the electronegativity has been observed in the isoelectronic series. It has been found that generally the optical basicity increases and the single bond strength of simple oxides decreases with decreasing the electronegativity. The observed trends have been discussed on the basis of electron donation ability ofmore » the oxide ions and type of chemical bonding in simple oxides. - Graphical abstract: This figure shows the single bond strength of simple oxides as a function of element electronegativity. A remarkable correlation exists between these independently obtained quantities. High values of electronegativity correspond to high values of single bond strength and vice versa. It is obvious that the observed trend in this figure is closely related to the type of chemical bonding in corresponding oxide. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A suitable relationship between free-cation polarizability and electronegativity of elements was searched. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The cation polarizability increases with decreasing element electronegativity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The single bond strength of simple oxides decreases with decreasing the electronegativity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The observed trends were discussed on the basis of type of chemical bonding in simple oxides.« less
New Trends in Educational Lighting Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Peter

2001-01-01

Explores technological trends for improving campus lighting, including the use of direct-indirect suspended fluorescent lighting, suspended linear lighting, high-efficiency optical systems, and occupancy and daylight sensors. (GR)
Action Centered Contextual Bandits.

PubMed

Greenewald, Kristjan; Tewari, Ambuj; Klasnja, Predrag; Murphy, Susan

2017-12-01

Contextual bandits have become popular as they offer a middle ground between very simple approaches based on multi-armed bandits and very complex approaches using the full power of reinforcement learning. They have demonstrated success in web applications and have a rich body of associated theoretical guarantees. Linear models are well understood theoretically and preferred by practitioners because they are not only easily interpretable but also simple to implement and debug. Furthermore, if the linear model is true, we get very strong performance guarantees. Unfortunately, in emerging applications in mobile health, the time-invariant linear model assumption is untenable. We provide an extension of the linear model for contextual bandits that has two parts: baseline reward and treatment effect. We allow the former to be complex but keep the latter simple. We argue that this model is plausible for mobile health applications. At the same time, it leads to algorithms with strong performance guarantees as in the linear model setting, while still allowing for complex nonlinear baseline modeling. Our theory is supported by experiments on data gathered in a recently concluded mobile health study.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolac, S; Letourneau, D; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

Purpose: Application of process control theory in quality assurance programs promises to allow earlier identification of problems and potentially better quality in delivery than traditional paradigms based primarily on tolerances and action levels. The purpose of this project was to characterize underlying seasonal variations in linear accelerator output that can be used to improve performance or trigger preemptive maintenance. Methods: Review of runtime plots of daily (6 MV) output data acquired using in house ion chamber based devices over three years and for fifteen linear accelerators of varying make and model were evaluated. Shifts in output due to known interventionsmore » with the machines were subtracted from the data to model an uncorrected scenario for each linear accelerator. Observable linear trends were also removed from the data prior to evaluation of periodic variations. Results: Runtime plots of output revealed sinusoidal, seasonal variations that were consistent across all units, irrespective of manufacturer, model or age of machine. The average amplitude of the variation was on the order of 1%. Peak and minimum variations were found to correspond to early April and September, respectively. Approximately 48% of output adjustments made over the period examined were potentially avoidable if baseline levels had corresponded to the mean output, rather than to points near a peak or valley. Linear trends were observed for three of the fifteen units, with annual increases in output ranging from 2–3%. Conclusion: Characterization of cyclical seasonal trends allows for better separation of potentially innate accelerator behaviour from other behaviours (e.g. linear trends) that may be better described as true out of control states (i.e. non-stochastic deviations from otherwise expected behavior) and could indicate service requirements. Results also pointed to an optimal setpoint for accelerators such that output of machines is maintained within set tolerances and interventions are required less frequently.« less
Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2013-01-01

Background Considerable controversy exists regarding the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. Methods and Results Pubmed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1,279,804 participants and 36,352 CVD cases. A non-linear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity = 0.09, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median: 0 cups/d), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.03) for the highest (median: 5 cups/d) category, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for the second highest (median: 3.5 cups/d), and 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) for the third highest category (median: 1.5 cups/d). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was non-linearly associated with both CHD (P for heterogeneity = 0.001, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001) and stroke risks (P for heterogeneity = 0.07, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity< 0.001) (P for trend differences > 0.05). Conclusions A non-linear association between coffee consumption with CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups/d, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk. PMID:24201300
Kinetics of DSB rejoining and formation of simple chromosome exchange aberrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Nikjoo, H.; O'Neill, P.; Goodhead, D. T.

2000-01-01

PURPOSE: To investigate the role of kinetics in the processing of DNA double strand breaks (DSB), and the formation of simple chromosome exchange aberrations following X-ray exposures to mammalian cells based on an enzymatic approach. METHODS: Using computer simulations based on a biochemical approach, rate-equations that describe the processing of DSB through the formation of a DNA-enzyme complex were formulated. A second model that allows for competition between two processing pathways was also formulated. The formation of simple exchange aberrations was modelled as misrepair during the recombination of single DSB with undamaged DNA. Non-linear coupled differential equations corresponding to biochemical pathways were solved numerically by fitting to experimental data. RESULTS: When mediated by a DSB repair enzyme complex, the processing of single DSB showed a complex behaviour that gives the appearance of fast and slow components of rejoining. This is due to the time-delay caused by the action time of enzymes in biomolecular reactions. It is shown that the kinetic- and dose-responses of simple chromosome exchange aberrations are well described by a recombination model of DSB interacting with undamaged DNA when aberration formation increases with linear dose-dependence. Competition between two or more recombination processes is shown to lead to the formation of simple exchange aberrations with a dose-dependence similar to that of a linear quadratic model. CONCLUSIONS: Using a minimal number of assumptions, the kinetics and dose response observed experimentally for DSB rejoining and the formation of simple chromosome exchange aberrations are shown to be consistent with kinetic models based on enzymatic reaction approaches. A non-linear dose response for simple exchange aberrations is possible in a model of recombination of DNA containing a DSB with undamaged DNA when two or more pathways compete for DSB repair.
Simple quasi-analytical holonomic homogenization model for the non-linear analysis of in-plane loaded masonry panels: Part 1, meso-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, G.; Bertolesi, E.

2017-07-01

A simple quasi analytical holonomic homogenization approach for the non-linear analysis of masonry walls in-plane loaded is presented. The elementary cell (REV) is discretized with 24 triangular elastic constant stress elements (bricks) and non-linear interfaces (mortar). A holonomic behavior with softening is assumed for mortar. It is shown how the mechanical problem in the unit cell is characterized by very few displacement variables and how homogenized stress-strain behavior can be evaluated semi-analytically.

International Medical Graduates in the US Physician Workforce and Graduate Medical Education: Current and Historical Trends.

PubMed

Ahmed, Awad A; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Thomas, Charles R; Deville, Curtiland

2018-04-01

Data show that international medical graduates (IMGs), both US and foreign born, are more likely to enter primary care specialties and practice in underserved areas. Comprehensive assessments of representation trends for IMGs in the US physician workforce are limited. We reported current and historical representation trends for IMGs in the graduate medical education (GME) training pool and US practicing physician workforce. We compared representation for the total GME and active practicing physician pools with the 20 largest residency specialties. A 2-sided test was used for comparison, with P < .001 considered significant. To assess significant increases in IMG GME trainee representation for the total pool and each of the specialties from 1990-2015, the slope was estimated using simple linear regression. IMGs showed significantly greater representation among active practicing physicians in 4 specialties: internal medicine (39%), neurology (31%), psychiatry (30%), and pediatrics (25%). IMGs in GME showed significantly greater representation in 5 specialties: pathology (39%), internal medicine (39%), neurology (36%), family medicine (32%), and psychiatry (31%; all P < .001). Over the past quarter century, IMG representation in GME has increased by 0.2% per year in the total GME pool, and 1.1% per year for family medicine, 0.5% for obstetrics and gynecology and general surgery, and 0.3% for internal medicine. IMGs make up nearly a quarter of the total GME pool and practicing physician workforce, with a disproportionate share, and larger increases over our study period in certain specialties.
Linear and Non-Linear Visual Feature Learning in Rat and Humans

PubMed Central

Bossens, Christophe; Op de Beeck, Hans P.

2016-01-01

The visual system processes visual input in a hierarchical manner in order to extract relevant features that can be used in tasks such as invariant object recognition. Although typically investigated in primates, recent work has shown that rats can be trained in a variety of visual object and shape recognition tasks. These studies did not pinpoint the complexity of the features used by these animals. Many tasks might be solved by using a combination of relatively simple features which tend to be correlated. Alternatively, rats might extract complex features or feature combinations which are nonlinear with respect to those simple features. In the present study, we address this question by starting from a small stimulus set for which one stimulus-response mapping involves a simple linear feature to solve the task while another mapping needs a well-defined nonlinear combination of simpler features related to shape symmetry. We verified computationally that the nonlinear task cannot be trivially solved by a simple V1-model. We show how rats are able to solve the linear feature task but are unable to acquire the nonlinear feature. In contrast, humans are able to use the nonlinear feature and are even faster in uncovering this solution as compared to the linear feature. The implications for the computational capabilities of the rat visual system are discussed. PMID:28066201
Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.
Trends in isolated lumbar spinal stenosis surgery among working US adults aged 40-64 years, 2010-2014.

PubMed

Raad, Micheal; Donaldson, Callum J; El Dafrawy, Mostafa H; Sciubba, Daniel M; Riley, Lee H; Neuman, Brian J; Kebaish, Khaled M; Skolasky, Richard L

2018-05-25

OBJECTIVE Recommendations for the surgical treatment of isolated lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) (i.e., in the absence of concomitant scoliosis or spondylolisthesis) are unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate trends in the surgical treatment of isolated LSS in US adults and determine implications for outcomes. METHODS The authors analyzed inpatient and outpatient claims from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database for 20,279 patients aged 40-64 years who underwent surgery for LSS between 2010 and 2014. Only patients with continuous 12-month insurance coverage after surgery were included. The rates of decompression with arthrodesis versus decompression only and of simple (1- or 2-level, single-approach) versus complex (> 2-level or combined-approach) arthrodesis were analyzed by year and geographic region. These trends were further analyzed with respect to complications, length of hospital stay, payments made to the hospital, and patient discharge status. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS The proportion of patients who underwent decompression with arthrodesis compared with decompression only increased significantly and linearly from 2010 to 2014 (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.06-1.10). Arthrodesis was more likely to be complex rather than simple with each subsequent year (OR 1.4; 95% CI 1.33-1.49). This trend was accompanied by an increased likelihood of postoperative complications (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.02-1.21), higher costs (payments increased by a mean of US$1633 per year; 95% CI 1327-1939), and greater likelihood of being discharged to a skilled nursing facility as opposed to home (OR 1.11; 95% CI 1.03-1.20). The South and Midwest regions of the US had the highest proportions of patients undergoing arthrodesis (48% and 42%, respectively). The mean length of hospital stay did not change significantly (p = 0.324). CONCLUSIONS From 2010 to 2014, the proportion of adults undergoing decompression with arthrodesis versus decompression only for the treatment of LSS increased, especially in the South and Midwest regions of the US. A greater proportion of these fusions were complex and were associated with more complications, higher costs, and a greater likelihood of being discharged to a skilled nursing facility.
Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.
Kinetics of the crust thickness development of bread during baking.

PubMed

Soleimani Pour-Damanab, Alireza; Jafary, A; Rafiee, Sh

2014-11-01

The development of crust thickness of bread during baking is an important aspect of bread quality and shelf-life. Computer vision system was used for measuring the crust thickness via colorimetric properties of bread surface during baking process. Crust thickness had a negative and positive relationship with Lightness (L (*) ) and total color change (E (*) ) of bread surface, respectively. A linear negative trend was found between crust thickness and moisture ratio of bread samples. A simple mathematical model was proposed to predict the development of crust thickness of bread during baking, where the crust thickness was depended on moisture ratio that was described by the Page moisture losing model. The independent variables of the model were baking conditions, i.e. oven temperature and air velocity, and baking time. Consequently, the proposed model had well prediction ability, as the mean absolute estimation error of the model was 7.93 %.
Parametric Characterization of TES Detectors Under DC Bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiao, Meng P.; Smith, Stephen James; Kilbourne, Caroline A.; Adams, Joseph S.; Bandler, Simon R.; Betancourt-Martinez, Gabriele L.; Chervenak, James A.; Datesman, Aaron M.; Eckart, Megan E.; Ewin, Audrey J.;

2016-01-01

The X-ray integrated field unit (X-IFU) in European Space Agency's (ESA's) Athena mission will be the first high-resolution X-ray spectrometer in space using a large-format transition-edge sensor microcalorimeter array. Motivated by optimization of detector performance for X-IFU, we have conducted an extensive campaign of parametric characterization on transition-edge sensor (TES) detectors with nominal geometries and physical properties in order to establish sensitivity trends relative to magnetic field, dc bias on detectors, operating temperature, and to improve our understanding of detector behavior relative to its fundamental properties such as thermal conductivity, heat capacity, and transition temperature. These results were used for validation of a simple linear detector model in which a small perturbation can be introduced to one or multiple parameters to estimate the error budget for X-IFU. We will show here results of our parametric characterization of TES detectors and briefly discuss the comparison with the TES model.

Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

PubMed

Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

2001-04-01

Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and Vitamin A intake from fortified food showed a significant linear time trend. All other nutrients studied here gave significant non-linear time trends. Nutrient intake with fortified food reached maximum values between 1994 and 1996 followed by a decrease thereafter. Signs of changing food consumption patterns were found, pointing to an almost uniform decrease of nutrient intake since 1994/96 in our population of German children and adolescents. This could be an alarming indicator of a slight but unpreferable tendency to eat energydense, nutrient-poor foods.
Exploring the effects of transfers and readmissions on trends in population counts of hospital admissions for coronary heart disease: a Western Australian data linkage study.

PubMed

Lopez, Derrick; Nedkoff, Lee; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael S T; Briffa, Thomas G; Preen, David B; Hung, Joseph; Beilby, John; Mathur, Sushma; Reynolds, Anna; Sanfilippo, Frank M

2017-11-17

To develop a method for categorising coronary heart disease (CHD) subtype in linked data accounting for different CHD diagnoses across records, and to compare hospital admission numbers and ratios of unlinked versus linked data for each CHD subtype over time, and across age groups and sex. Cohort study. Person-linked hospital administrative data covering all admissions for CHD in Western Australia from 1988 to 2013. Ratios of (1) unlinked admission counts to contiguous admission (CA) counts (accounting for transfers), and (2) 28-day episode counts (accounting for transfers and readmissions) to CA counts stratified by CHD subtype, sex and age group. In all CHD subtypes, the ratios changed in a linear or quadratic fashion over time and the coefficients of the trend term differed across CHD subtypes. Furthermore, for many CHD subtypes the ratios also differed by age group and sex. For example, in women aged 35-54 years, the ratio of unlinked to CA counts for non-ST elevation myocardial infarction admissions in 2000 was 1.10, and this increased in a linear fashion to 1.30 in 2013, representing an annual increase of 0.0148. The use of unlinked counts in epidemiological estimates of CHD hospitalisations overestimates CHD counts. The CA and 28-day episode counts are more aligned with epidemiological studies of CHD. The degree of overestimation of counts using only unlinked counts varies in a complex manner with CHD subtype, time, sex and age group, and it is not possible to apply a simple correction factor to counts obtained from unlinked data. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
Numerical calculations of spectral turnover and synchrotron self-absorption in CSS and GPS radio sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyakumar, S.

2016-06-01

The dependence of the turnover frequency on the linear size is presented for a sample of Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum and Compact Steep Spectrum radio sources derived from complete samples. The dependence of the luminosity of the emission at the peak frequency with the linear size and the peak frequency is also presented for the galaxies in the sample. The luminosity of the smaller sources evolve strongly with the linear size. Optical depth effects have been included to the 3D model for the radio source of Kaiser to study the spectral turnover. Using this model, the observed trend can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. The observed trend in the peak-frequency-linear-size plane is not affected by the luminosity evolution of the sources.
Multi-Mode Analysis of Dual Ridged Waveguide Systems for Material Characterization

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-17

characterization is the process of determining the dielectric, magnetic, and magnetoelectric properties of a material. For simple (i.e., linear ...field expressions in terms of elementary functions (sines, cosines, exponentials and Bessel functions) and corresponding propagation constants of the...with material parameters 0 and µ0. • The MUT is simple ( linear , isotropic, homogeneous), and the sample has a uniform thickness. • The waveguide
A Re-appraisal of Olivine Sorting and Accumulation in Hawaiian Magmas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, J. M.

2002-12-01

Bowen never used the m-words (magma mixing) in his highly influential book "The Origin of the Igneous Rocks". Yet, in the past 20-30 years, magma mixing has been proposed as an important, almost ubiquitous, process at volcanoes in all tectonic environments ranging from oceanic basalts to large silicic magma bodies, and as the possible trigger of eruptions. Bowen regarded Hawaiian olivine basalts and picrites as the result of olivine accumulation in a lower MgO magma that was crystallizing and fractionating olivine. This, with variants, has been the party line ever since, the only debate being over the MgO content of the proposed parental magmas. Although magma mixing has been recognized as an important process in differentiated, low-MgO (below 7 percent), Hawaiian magmas, the wide range in MgO (7-30 percent) in Hawaiian olivine tholeiites and picrites is invariably attributed to olivine crystallization, fractionation and accumulation. In this paper I will re-evaluate this hypothesis using well-documented examples from Kilauea, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa that exhibit well-defined, coherent linear trends of major oxides and trace elements with MgO . If olivine control is the only factor responsible for these trends, then the intersection of the regression lines for each trend should intersect olivine compositions at a common forsterite composition, corresponding to the average accumulated olivine in each of the magmas. In some cases (the ongoing Puu Oo eruption) this simple test holds and olivine fractionation and accumulation can clearly be shown to be the dominant process. In other examples from Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa (1852, 1868, 1950 eruptions, and Mauna Loa in general) the test does not hold, and a more complicated process is required. Additionally, for those magmas that fail the test, CaO/Al2O3 invariably decreases with decreasing MgO content. This should not happen if only olivine fractionation and accumulation are involved. The explanation for these linear trends that approach, but fail to intersect, appropriate olivine compositions is a combination of magma mixing accompanied by olivine crystallization and accumulation. One of the mixing components is a is a high-MgO (about13-15 percent) magma laden with olivine phenocrysts and xenocrysts and the other is a consanguineous low-MgO (about 7 percent) quasi "steady-state" magma, with a prior history of clinopyroxene and plagioclase fractionation.
Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976–88

PubMed Central

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Methods A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. Results An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16–18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3–6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2–10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6–15.1)] mortality. Conclusions The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality. PMID:19188208
Age at menarche, total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke: the Adventist Health Study, 1976-88.

PubMed

Jacobsen, B K; Oda, K; Knutsen, S F; Fraser, G E

2009-02-01

Little is known about the relationship between age at menarche and total mortality and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke. A cohort study of 19 462 Californian Seventh-Day Adventist women followed-up from 1976 to 1988. A total of 3313 deaths occurred during follow-up, of which 809 were due to ischaemic heart disease and 378 due to stroke. An early menarche was associated with increased total mortality (P-value for linear trend <0.001), ischaemic heart disease (P-value for linear trend = 0.01) and stroke (P-value for linear trend = 0.02) mortality. There were, however, also some indications of an increased ischaemic heart disease mortality in women aged 16-18 at menarche (5% of the women). When assessed as a linear relationship, a 1-year delay in menarche was associated with 4.5% (95% CI 2.3-6.7) lower total mortality. The association was stronger for ischaemic heart disease [6.0% (95% CI 1.2-10.6)] and stroke [8.6% (95% CI 1.6-15.1)] mortality. The results suggest that there is a linear, inverse relationship between age at menarche and total mortality as well as with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality.
The relationship between psychological distress and baseline sports-related concussion testing.

PubMed

Bailey, Christopher M; Samples, Hillary L; Broshek, Donna K; Freeman, Jason R; Barth, Jeffrey T

2010-07-01

This study examined the effect of psychological distress on neurocognitive performance measured during baseline concussion testing. Archival data were utilized to examine correlations between personality testing and computerized baseline concussion testing. Significantly correlated personality measures were entered into linear regression analyses, predicting baseline concussion testing performance. Suicidal ideation was examined categorically. Athletes underwent testing and screening at a university athletic training facility. Participants included 47 collegiate football players 17 to 19 years old, the majority of whom were in their first year of college. Participants were administered the Concussion Resolution Index (CRI), an internet-based neurocognitive test designed to monitor and manage both at-risk and concussed athletes. Participants took the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI), a self-administered inventory designed to measure clinical syndromes, treatment considerations, and interpersonal style. Scales and subscales from the PAI were utilized to determine the influence psychological distress had on the CRI indices: simple reaction time, complex reaction time, and processing speed. Analyses revealed several significant correlations among aspects of somatic concern, depression, anxiety, substance abuse, and suicidal ideation and CRI performance, each with at least a moderate effect. When entered into a linear regression, the block of combined psychological symptoms accounted for a significant amount of baseline CRI performance, with moderate to large effects (r = 0.23-0.30). When examined categorically, participants with suicidal ideation showed significantly slower simple reaction time and complex reaction time, with a similar trend on processing speed. Given the possibility of obscured concussion deficits after injury, implications for premature return to play, and the need to target psychological distress outright, these findings heighten the clinical importance of screening for psychological distress during baseline and post-injury concussion evaluations.
National and regional analysis of road accidents in Spain.

PubMed

Tolón-Becerra, A; Lastra-Bravo, X; Flores-Parra, I

2013-01-01

In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998-2009. First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression. The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days. The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998-2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).
Mining Distance Based Outliers in Near Linear Time with Randomization and a Simple Pruning Rule

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bay, Stephen D.; Schwabacher, Mark

2003-01-01

Defining outliers by their distance to neighboring examples is a popular approach to finding unusual examples in a data set. Recently, much work has been conducted with the goal of finding fast algorithms for this task. We show that a simple nested loop algorithm that in the worst case is quadratic can give near linear time performance when the data is in random order and a simple pruning rule is used. We test our algorithm on real high-dimensional data sets with millions of examples and show that the near linear scaling holds over several orders of magnitude. Our average case analysis suggests that much of the efficiency is because the time to process non-outliers, which are the majority of examples, does not depend on the size of the data set.
Generalized trends in the formation energies of perovskite oxides.

PubMed

Zeng, ZhenHua; Calle-Vallejo, Federico; Mogensen, Mogens B; Rossmeisl, Jan

2013-05-28

Generalized trends in the formation energies of several families of perovskite oxides (ABO3) and plausible explanations to their existence are provided in this study through a combination of DFT calculations, solid-state physics analyses and simple physical/chemical descriptors. The studied elements at the A site of perovskites comprise rare-earth, alkaline-earth and alkaline metals, whereas 3d and 5d metals were studied at the B site. We also include ReO3-type compounds, which have the same crystal structure of cubic ABO3 perovskites except without A-site elements. From the observations we extract the following four conclusions for the perovskites studied in the present paper: for a given cation at the B site, (I) perovskites with cations of identical oxidation state at the A site possess close formation energies; and (II) perovskites with cations of different oxidation states at the A site usually have quite different but ordered formation energies. On the other hand, for a given A-site cation, (III) the formation energies of perovskites vary linearly with respect to the atomic number of the elements at the B site within the same period of the periodic table, and the slopes depend systematically on the oxidation state of the A-site cation; and (IV) the trends in formation energies of perovskites with elements from different periods at the B site depend on the oxidation state of A-site cations. Since the energetics of perovskites is shown to be the superposition of the individual contributions of their constituent oxides, the trends can be rationalized in terms of A-O and B-O interactions in the ionic crystal. These findings reveal the existence of general systematic trends in the formation energies of perovskites and provide further insight into the role of ion-ion interactions in the properties of ternary compounds.
Fifteen-year trends in the prevalence of barriers to healthy eating in a high-income country.

PubMed

de Mestral, Carlos; Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman; Stringhini, Silvia; Marques-Vidal, Pedro

2017-03-01

Background: Despite increasing levels of education and income in the Swiss population over time and greater food diversity due to globalization, adherence to dietary guidelines has remained persistently low. This may be because of barriers to healthy eating hampering adherence, but whether these barriers have evolved in prevalence over time has never been assessed, to our knowledge. Objective: We assessed 15-y trends in the prevalence of self-reported barriers to healthy eating in Switzerland overall and according to sex, age, education, and income. Design: We used data from 4 national Swiss Health Surveys conducted between 1997 and 2012 (52,238 participants aged ≥18 y, 55% women), applying multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to assess trends in prevalence of 6 barriers to healthy eating (taste, price, daily habits, time, lack of willpower, and limited options). Results: The prevalence of 3 barriers exhibited an increasing trend until 2007, followed by a decrease in 2012 (from 44% in 1997 to 50% in 2007 and then to 44% in 2012 for taste, from 40% to 52% and then to 39% for price, and from 29% to 34% and then to 32% for time; quadratic P -trend < 0.0001). Limited options decreased slightly until 2007 (35-33%) and then sharply by 2012 (18%) (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Daily habits remained relatively stable across time from 42% in 1997 to 38% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Conversely, lack of willpower decreased steadily over time from 26% in 1997 to 21% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Trends were similar for all barriers irrespective of sex, age, education, and income. Conclusion: Between 1997 and 2012, barriers to healthy eating remained highly prevalent (≥20%) in the Swiss population and evolved similarly irrespective of age, sex, education, and income. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.
Trends in Daily Cannabis Use Among Cigarette Smokers: United States, 2002-2014.

PubMed

Goodwin, Renee D; Pacek, Lauren R; Copeland, Jan; Moeller, Scott J; Dierker, Lisa; Weinberger, Andrea; Gbedemah, Misato; Zvolensky, Michael J; Wall, Melanie M; Hasin, Deborah S

2018-01-01

To estimate changes in the prevalence of daily cannabis use among current, former, and never cigarette smokers from 2002 to 2014 in the United States. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health is a nationally representative cross-sectional study conducted annually among persons aged 12 years and older in the United States. Daily cannabis use occurs nearly exclusively among nondaily and daily cigarette smokers compared with former and never smokers (8.03%, 9.01%, 2.79%, 1.05%, respectively). Daily cannabis use increased over the past decade among both nondaily (8.03% [2014] vs 2.85% [2002]; linear trend P < .001) and daily smokers (9.01% [2014]; 4.92% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use increased most rapidly among former cigarette smokers (2.79% [2014] vs 0.98% [2002]; linear trend P < .001). Daily cannabis use occurs predominantly among cigarette smokers in the United States. Daily cannabis use increased among current, former, and never smokers over the past decade, with particularly rapid increases among youth and female cigarette smokers. Future research is needed to monitor the observed increase in daily cannabis use, especially among youths and adults who smoke cigarettes.

Prediction of the Main Engine Power of a New Container Ship at the Preliminary Design Stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cepowski, Tomasz

2017-06-01

The paper presents mathematical relationships that allow us to forecast the estimated main engine power of new container ships, based on data concerning vessels built in 2005-2015. The presented approximations allow us to estimate the engine power based on the length between perpendiculars and the number of containers the ship will carry. The approximations were developed using simple linear regression and multivariate linear regression analysis. The presented relations have practical application for estimation of container ship engine power needed in preliminary parametric design of the ship. It follows from the above that the use of multiple linear regression to predict the main engine power of a container ship brings more accurate solutions than simple linear regression.
Latitudinal dependence of variations in stratospheric NO2 content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2008-06-01

Diurnal and annual variations in the NO2 total content (TC), the effect of its decrease owing to the products of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, its variations during an 11-year cycle of solar activity, and its linear trends are analyzed on the basis of data obtained from the ground-based spectrometric measurements of the NO2 TC in stratospheric vertical columns over the stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Latitudinal dependence of the indicated variations and trends is revealed. The annual estimates of the linear trends of the NO2 TC are found to be mostly positive for the middle and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere and negative for the middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum values of the positive and negative trends amount to ˜10% per ten years. In the high and polar latitudes of both hemispheres, the annual trend estimates are statistically insignificant. Seasonal estimates of the trends may differ from their annual estimates. The trends and solar-activity effect in the NO2 TC, which were estimated by using the two-dimensional model SOCRATES, as well as the analytical estimates of a zonal mean trend of the NO2 TC, on the whole, significantly differ from the estimates obtained from the measurements.
Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.
Are V1 Simple Cells Optimized for Visual Occlusions? A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Bornschein, Jörg; Henniges, Marc; Lücke, Jörg

2013-01-01

Simple cells in primary visual cortex were famously found to respond to low-level image components such as edges. Sparse coding and independent component analysis (ICA) emerged as the standard computational models for simple cell coding because they linked their receptive fields to the statistics of visual stimuli. However, a salient feature of image statistics, occlusions of image components, is not considered by these models. Here we ask if occlusions have an effect on the predicted shapes of simple cell receptive fields. We use a comparative approach to answer this question and investigate two models for simple cells: a standard linear model and an occlusive model. For both models we simultaneously estimate optimal receptive fields, sparsity and stimulus noise. The two models are identical except for their component superposition assumption. We find the image encoding and receptive fields predicted by the models to differ significantly. While both models predict many Gabor-like fields, the occlusive model predicts a much sparser encoding and high percentages of ‘globular’ receptive fields. This relatively new center-surround type of simple cell response is observed since reverse correlation is used in experimental studies. While high percentages of ‘globular’ fields can be obtained using specific choices of sparsity and overcompleteness in linear sparse coding, no or only low proportions are reported in the vast majority of studies on linear models (including all ICA models). Likewise, for the here investigated linear model and optimal sparsity, only low proportions of ‘globular’ fields are observed. In comparison, the occlusive model robustly infers high proportions and can match the experimentally observed high proportions of ‘globular’ fields well. Our computational study, therefore, suggests that ‘globular’ fields may be evidence for an optimal encoding of visual occlusions in primary visual cortex. PMID:23754938
Assessing non-linear variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and their impacts on phenology in the Midwest of Jilin Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Yongfang; Alu, Si; Wang, Rui; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si

2018-05-01

In the past two decades, the regional climate in China has undergone significant change, resulting in crop yield reduction and complete failure. The goal of this study is to detect the variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and assess their impact on phenology. The daily meteorological data in the Midwest of Jilin Province during 1960-2014 were used in the study. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was adopted to analyze the non-linear trend and fluctuation in temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivity of the length of the maize growth period to temperature and precipitation was analyzed by the wavelet cross-transformation method. The results show that the trends of temperature and precipitation change are non-linear for different growth periods of maize, and the average temperature in the sowing-jointing stage was different from that in the other growth stages, showing a slight decrease trend, while the variation amplitude of maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature. This indicates that the temperature difference between day and night shows a gradually decreasing trend. Precipitation in the growth period also showed a decreasing non-linear trend, while the inter-annual variability with period of quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year dominated the variation of temperature and precipitation. The whole growth period was shortened by 10.7 days, and the sowing date was advanced by approximately 11 days. We also found that there was a significant resonance period among temperature, precipitation, and phenology. Overall, a negative correlation between phenology and temperature is evident, while a positive correlation with precipitation is exhibited. The results illustrate that the climate suitability for maize has reduced over the past decades.
Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185
Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States.

PubMed

Welsh, Jean A; Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-09-01

The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999-2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits.
Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States1234

PubMed Central

Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-01-01

Background: The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. Objective: We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. Design: A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999–2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Results: Between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Conclusion: Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits. PMID:21753067
Europe experienced a "warming hole" in autumn in the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, M.; Pokorna, L.; Huth, R.

2012-12-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there might be seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in central and eastern Europe. In this study we use daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations from the ECA&D database in Europe and the Mediterranean in the period 1961-2000 to precisely locate their seasonal and sub-seasonal trends in space and within the course of the year, and to assess the effect of circulation changes on these observed trends. Linear trends are calculated for moving "seasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Thus we obtain 365 values of "moving trends" for each station and each variant of season length. The day-to-day variability of these trends is greatest for short "seasons" of 10 and 20 days. Trends of the 90-day seasons are the most stable throughout the year and also bear the lowest trend magnitudes. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "moving trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in eastern Europe. Two regions stand out of this general picture: in Iceland and the Mediterranean, winter shows almost no trends, while in summer we see a pronounced warming. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in eastern and southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in western and central Europe in April and June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Changes in atmospheric circulation may be one of the factors that influence the observed temperature trends. We use one daily circulation type classification from the European project "COST733", calculated over 11 pre-defined spatial domains, and a simple decomposition method to assess the effect of circulation changes on "moving trends" of temperature and DTR. Our results vary greatly between stations and times of the year; all in all, circulation changes are only responsible for a minor part of the observed trends. At most stations, the only substantial circulation effect is found in winter. Our results suggest that using different time scales apart from the conventional three-month seasons is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.
Binary encoding of multiplexed images in mixed noise.

PubMed

Lalush, David S

2008-09-01

Binary coding of multiplexed signals and images has been studied in the context of spectroscopy with models of either purely constant or purely proportional noise, and has been shown to result in improved noise performance under certain conditions. We consider the case of mixed noise in an imaging system consisting of multiple individually-controllable sources (X-ray or near-infrared, for example) shining on a single detector. We develop a mathematical model for the noise in such a system and show that the noise is dependent on the properties of the binary coding matrix and on the average number of sources used for each code. Each binary matrix has a characteristic linear relationship between the ratio of proportional-to-constant noise and the noise level in the decoded image. We introduce a criterion for noise level, which is minimized via a genetic algorithm search. The search procedure results in the discovery of matrices that outperform the Hadamard S-matrices at certain levels of mixed noise. Simulation of a seven-source radiography system demonstrates that the noise model predicts trends and rank order of performance in regions of nonuniform images and in a simple tomosynthesis reconstruction. We conclude that the model developed provides a simple framework for analysis, discovery, and optimization of binary coding patterns used in multiplexed imaging systems.
Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.
Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

2013-04-01

IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for 2011-2099 suggest that linear trends of sea level rise in Singapore Strait are 5.4 and 6.1 mm/year, respectively. These values fall in the range of global estimates of 3.0-8.5 mm/year. Mean sea level rise is expected around 0.43 m (ROMS-ECHAM5) and 0.47 m (ROMS-CCSM3) in 2099 relative to mean sea level in 2011. These values are greater than median estimation of global sea rise 0.32 under scenario A2. Mean discharge through Singapore Strait for scenario A2 during 2011 to 2099 is projected to be 0.062 Sv for ROMS-ECHAM5 and 0.11 Sv for ROMS-CCSM3. These projections are comparable to the discharges during 1961-1990 (0.065 and 0.11 Sv, respectively). The linear trend in discharges for the period 2011-2099 is relatively small with statistical confidence level being less than 95%. An important feature computationally discovered is the transient reversal of flow in the Singapore Strait during southwest monsoon. In general, the reversals of flow in ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 are observed respectively to occur 1/3 and 1/5 of the whole period.
[Analysis on the trend of long-term change of blood pressure in hypertensive patients treated with benazepril].

PubMed

Lu, Jun; Li, Li-Ming; He, Ping-Ping; Cao, Wei-Hua; Zhan, Si-Yan; Hu, Yong-Hua

2004-06-01

To introduce the application of mixed linear model in the analysis of secular trend of blood pressure under antihypertensive treatment. A community-based postmarketing surveillance of benazepril was conducted in 1831 essential hypertensive patients (age range from 35 to 88 years) in Shanghai. Data of blood pressure was analyzed every 3 months with mixed linear model to describe the secular trend of blood pressure and changes of age-specific and gender-specific. The changing trends of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were found to fit the curvilinear models. A piecewise model was fit for pulse pressure (PP), i.e., curvilinear model in the first 9 months and linear model after 9 months of taking medication. Both blood pressure and its velocity gradually slowed down. There were significant variation for the curve parameters of intercept, slope, and acceleration. Blood pressure in patients with higher initial levels was persistently declining in the 3-year-treatment. However blood pressures of patients with relatively low initial levels remained low when dropped down to some degree. Elderly patients showed high SBP but low DBP, so as with higher PP. The velocity and sizes of blood pressure reductions increased with the initial level of blood pressure. Mixed linear model is flexible and robust when applied to the analysis of longitudinal data but with missing values and can also make the maximum use of available information.
Medico-legal litigation in Obstetrics: a characterization analysis of a decade in Portugal.

PubMed

Domingues, Ana Patrícia Rodrigues; Belo, Adriana; Moura, Paulo; Vieira, Duarte Nuno

2015-05-01

It was to analyse the most critical areas in Obstetrics and to suggest measures to reduce or avoid the situations most often involved in these disputes. Obstetrics cases submitted to the Medico-legal Council since the creation of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences in 2001 until 2011 were evaluated. A comprehensive characterization, determination of absolute/relative frequencies, hypothesis of a linear trend over the years and the association between each parameter was done. The analysis has shown no significantly linear trend. The most common reasons for disputes were perinatal asphyxia (50%), traumatic injuries of the newborn (24%), maternal sequelae (19%) and issues related to prenatal diagnosis and/or obstetric ultrasound (5.4%). Perinatal asphyxia showed no significantly linear trend (p=0.58) and was usually related to perinatal deaths or permanent neurologic sequelae in newborn children. Traumatic injuries of the newborn, mostly related to instrumented deliveries, shoulder dystocia or vaginal delivery in breech presentation, has shown a significantly increased linear trend (p<0.001), especially related to instrumented deliveries. The delay/absence of cesarean section was the clinical procedure questioned in a significantly higher number of cases of perinatal asphyxia (68.7%) and of traumatic lesions of the newborn due to instrumented deliveries (20.5%). It is important to improve and correct theoretical/practical daily clinical performance in these highlighted areas, in order to reduce or even avoid situations that could end up in medico-legal litigations.
Effects of the observed J2 variations on the Earth's precession and nutation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrándiz, José M.; Baenas, Tomás; Belda, Santiago

2016-04-01

The Earth's oblateness parameter J2 is closely related to the dynamical ellipticity H, which factorizes the main components of the precession and the different nutation terms. In most theoretical approaches to the Earth's rotation, with IAU2000 nutation theory among them, H is assumed to be constant. The precession model IAU2006 supposes H to have a conventional linear variation, based on the J2 time series derived mainly from satellite laser ranging (SLR) data for decades, which gives rise to an additional quadratic term of the precession in longitude and some corrections of the nutation terms. The time evolution of J2 is, however, too complex to be well approximated by a simple linear model. The effect of more general models including periodic terms and closer to the observed time series, although still unable to reproduce a significant part of the signal, has been seldom investigated. In this work we address the problem of deriving the effect of the observed J2 variations without resorting to such simplified models. The Hamiltonian approach to the Earth rotation is extended to allow the McCullagh's term of the potential to depend on a time-varying oblateness. An analytical solution is derived by means of a suitable perturbation method in the case of the time series provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR) of the University of Texas, which results in non-negligible contributions to the precession-nutation angles. The presentation focuses on the main effects on the longitude of the equator; a noticeable non-linear trend is superimposed to the linear main precession term, along with some periodic and decadal variations.
Commande optimale minimisant la consommation d'energie d'un drone utilise comme relai de communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mechirgui, Monia

The purpose of this project is to implement an optimal control regulator, particularly the linear quadratic regulator in order to control the position of an unmanned aerial vehicle known as a quadrotor. This type of UAV has a symmetrical and simple structure. Thus, its control is relatively easy compared to conventional helicopters. Optimal control can be proven to be an ideal controller to reconcile between the tracking performance and energy consumption. In practice, the linearity requirements are not met, but some elaborations of the linear quadratic regulator have been used in many nonlinear applications with good results. The linear quadratic controller used in this thesis is presented in two forms: simple and adapted to the state of charge of the battery. Based on the traditional structure of the linear quadratic regulator, we introduced a new criterion which relies on the state of charge of the battery, in order to optimize energy consumption. This command is intended to be used to monitor and maintain the desired trajectory during several maneuvers while minimizing energy consumption. Both simple and adapted, linear quadratic controller are implemented in Simulink in discrete time. The model simulates the dynamics and control of a quadrotor. Performance and stability of the system are analyzed with several tests, from the simply hover to the complex trajectories in closed loop.
Thyroid hormones and coronary artery calcification in euthyroid men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Kim, Bo-Kyoung; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Rampal, Sanjay; Zhao, Di; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Lima, Joao A; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-09-01

Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are risk factors for atherosclerosis. It is unclear whether thyroid hormone levels within the normal range are also associated with atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC). We conducted a cross-sectional study of 41 403 apparently healthy young and middle-aged men and women with normal thyroid hormone levels. Free thyroxin, free triiodothyronine, and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels were measured by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography. The multivariable adjusted CAC ratios comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile of thyroid hormones were 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91; P for trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.81 (0.66-1.00; P for trend=0.05) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.78 (0.64-0.95; P for trend=0.01) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. Similarly, the odds ratios for detectable CAC (CAC >0) comparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles of thyroid hormones were 0.87 (0.79-0.96; P for linear trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.90 (0.82-0.99; P for linear trend=0.02) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.91 (0.83-1.00; P for linear trend=0.03) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. In a large cohort of apparently healthy young and middle-aged euthyroid men and women, low-normal free thyroxin and thyroid-stimulating hormone were associated with a higher prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease and with a greater degree of coronary calcification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.
Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

Treesearch

Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

2005-01-01

We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [
A simple, stable, and accurate linear tetrahedral finite element for transient, nearly, and fully incompressible solid dynamics: A dynamic variational multiscale approach [A simple, stable, and accurate tetrahedral finite element for transient, nearly incompressible, linear and nonlinear elasticity: A dynamic variational multiscale approach

DOE PAGES

Scovazzi, Guglielmo; Carnes, Brian; Zeng, Xianyi; ...

2015-11-12

Here, we propose a new approach for the stabilization of linear tetrahedral finite elements in the case of nearly incompressible transient solid dynamics computations. Our method is based on a mixed formulation, in which the momentum equation is complemented by a rate equation for the evolution of the pressure field, approximated with piece-wise linear, continuous finite element functions. The pressure equation is stabilized to prevent spurious pressure oscillations in computations. Incidentally, it is also shown that many stabilized methods previously developed for the static case do not generalize easily to transient dynamics. Extensive tests in the context of linear andmore » nonlinear elasticity are used to corroborate the claim that the proposed method is robust, stable, and accurate.« less
A simple, stable, and accurate linear tetrahedral finite element for transient, nearly, and fully incompressible solid dynamics: A dynamic variational multiscale approach [A simple, stable, and accurate tetrahedral finite element for transient, nearly incompressible, linear and nonlinear elasticity: A dynamic variational multiscale approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scovazzi, Guglielmo; Carnes, Brian; Zeng, Xianyi

Here, we propose a new approach for the stabilization of linear tetrahedral finite elements in the case of nearly incompressible transient solid dynamics computations. Our method is based on a mixed formulation, in which the momentum equation is complemented by a rate equation for the evolution of the pressure field, approximated with piece-wise linear, continuous finite element functions. The pressure equation is stabilized to prevent spurious pressure oscillations in computations. Incidentally, it is also shown that many stabilized methods previously developed for the static case do not generalize easily to transient dynamics. Extensive tests in the context of linear andmore » nonlinear elasticity are used to corroborate the claim that the proposed method is robust, stable, and accurate.« less

Asymptotic Linear Spectral Statistics for Spiked Hermitian Random Matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passemier, Damien; McKay, Matthew R.; Chen, Yang

2015-07-01

Using the Coulomb Fluid method, this paper derives central limit theorems (CLTs) for linear spectral statistics of three "spiked" Hermitian random matrix ensembles. These include Johnstone's spiked model (i.e., central Wishart with spiked correlation), non-central Wishart with rank-one non-centrality, and a related class of non-central matrices. For a generic linear statistic, we derive simple and explicit CLT expressions as the matrix dimensions grow large. For all three ensembles under consideration, we find that the primary effect of the spike is to introduce an correction term to the asymptotic mean of the linear spectral statistic, which we characterize with simple formulas. The utility of our proposed framework is demonstrated through application to three different linear statistics problems: the classical likelihood ratio test for a population covariance, the capacity analysis of multi-antenna wireless communication systems with a line-of-sight transmission path, and a classical multiple sample significance testing problem.
Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.
Comparison of remote sensing algorithms for retrieval of suspended particulate matter concentration from reflectance in coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Lauren A.; Ackleson, Steven G.; Rhea, William Joseph

2017-10-01

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) is a key environmental indicator for rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters, which can be calculated from remote sensing reflectance obtained by an airborne or satellite imager. Here, algorithms from prior studies are applied to a dataset of in-situ at surface hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance, collected in three geographic regions representing different water types. These data show the optically inherent exponential nature of the relationship between reflectance and sediment concentration. However, linear models are also shown to provide a reasonable estimate of sediment concentration when utilized with care in similar conditions to those under which the algorithms were developed, particularly at lower SPM values (0 to 20 mg/L). Fifteen published SPM algorithms are tested, returning strong correlations of R2>0.7, and in most cases, R2>0.8. Very low SPM values show weaker correlation with algorithm calculated SPM that is not wavelength dependent. None of the tested algorithms performs well for high SPM values (>30 mg/L), with most algorithms underestimating SPM. A shift toward a smaller number of simple exponential or linear models relating satellite remote sensing reflectance to suspended sediment concentration with regional consideration will greatly aid larger spatiotemporal studies of suspended sediment trends.
Evaluation of preventative and control measures for congenital syphilis in State of Mato Grosso.

PubMed

Oliveira, Leila Regina de; Costa, Maria da Conceição Nascimento; Barreto, Florisneide Rodrigues; Pereira, Susan Martins; Dourado, Inês; Teixeira, Maria Glória

2014-01-01

Congenital syphilis is an important health problem in Brazil. This study assessed measures aimed at the prevention and control of syphilis in the State of Mato Grosso and its capital, Cuiabá. A descriptive study cross-sectional and of time trends assessing the congenital syphilis was performed in Cuiabá and Mato Grosso between 2001 and 2011. We compared maternal sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization related to cases of congenital syphilis during the periods from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2011. We assessed the temporal trends in this disease's incidence using a simple linear regression. Between 2001 and 2006 in Mato Grosso, 86.8% of the mothers who had live births with congenital syphilis received prenatal care, 90.6% presented with a nontreponemal test reagent at delivery, 96.2% had no information regarding a treponemal confirmatory test at delivery, and 77.6% received inadequate treatment for syphilis; additionally, 75.8% of their partners were not treated. There was a statistically significant reduction in prenatal visits (p = 0.004) and an increase in the proportion of mothers reactive to nontreponemal tests at delivery (p = 0.031) between the two periods. No other variables were found to differ significantly between the periods. In Cuiabá, we observed a similar distribution of variables. In the state and in the capital, the increasing trend of congenital syphilis was not statistically significant. The high incidence of congenital syphilis in Mato Grosso and the low levels of health care indicators for pregnant women with syphilis suggest the need to improve the coverage and quality of prenatal care.
Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

2017-04-01

Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.
Methods for Evaluating Respondent Attrition in Web-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Sabo, Roy T; Krist, Alex H; Day, Teresa; Cyrus, John; Woolf, Steven H

2016-01-01

Background Electronic surveys are convenient, cost effective, and increasingly popular tools for collecting information. While the online platform allows researchers to recruit and enroll more participants, there is an increased risk of participant dropout in Web-based research. Often, these dropout trends are simply reported, adjusted for, or ignored altogether. Objective To propose a conceptual framework that analyzes respondent attrition and demonstrates the utility of these methods with existing survey data. Methods First, we suggest visualization of attrition trends using bar charts and survival curves. Next, we propose a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to detect or confirm significant attrition points. Finally, we suggest applications of existing statistical methods to investigate the effect of internal survey characteristics and patient characteristics on dropout. In order to apply this framework, we conducted a case study; a seventeen-item Informed Decision-Making (IDM) module addressing how and why patients make decisions about cancer screening. Results Using the framework, we were able to find significant attrition points at Questions 4, 6, 7, and 9, and were also able to identify participant responses and characteristics associated with dropout at these points and overall. Conclusions When these methods were applied to survey data, significant attrition trends were revealed, both visually and empirically, that can inspire researchers to investigate the factors associated with survey dropout, address whether survey completion is associated with health outcomes, and compare attrition patterns between groups. The framework can be used to extract information beyond simple responses, can be useful during survey development, and can help determine the external validity of survey results. PMID:27876687
Transients in the inhibitory driving of neurons and their postsynaptic consequences.

PubMed

Segundo, J P; Stiber, M; Altshuler, E; Vibert, J F

1994-09-01

The presynaptic fiber at an inhibitory synapse on a pacemaker neuron was forced to generate transients, defined here as spike trains with a trend, unceasingly accelerating or slowing. Experiments were on isolated crayfish stretch receptor organs. Spike train analyses used tools and notions from conventional point processes and from non-linear dynamics. Pre- and postsynaptic discharges contrasted clearly in terms of rates and interspike intervals. The inhibitory train evolved monotonically and smoothly, following tightly the simple prescribed curves; it was uniform, exhibiting throughout a single and simple discharge form (i.e. interval patterning). The inhibited postsynaptic train alternately accelerated and slowed, not following tightly any simple curve; it was heterogeneous, exhibiting in succession several different and often complex discharge forms, and switching abruptly from one to another. The inhibited trains depended on the inhibitory transient's span, range and average slope. Accordingly, transients separated (not cuttingly) into categories with prolonged spans (over 1 s) and slow slopes (around 1/s2) and those with short spans (under 1 s) and fast slopes (around 30/s2). Special transients elicited postsynaptic discharges that reproduced it faithfully, e.g. accelerated with the transient and proportionately; no transient elicited postsynaptic discharges faithful to its mirror image. Crayfish synapses are prototypes, so these findings should be expected in any other junction, as working hypotheses at least. Implications involve the operation of neural networks, including the role of distortions and their compensation, and the underlying mechanisms. Transients have received little attention, most work on synaptic coding concentrating on stationary discharges. Transients are inherent to the changing situations that pervade everyday life, however, and their biological importance is self-evident. The different discharges encountered during a transient had strong similarities to the stationary forms reported for different pacemaker drivings that are called locking, intermittency, erratic and stammering; they were, in fact, trendy versions of these. Such forms appear with several synaptic drivings in the same order along the presynaptic rate scale; they may constitute basic building blocks for synaptic operation. In terms of non-linear science, it is as if the attractors postulated for stationary drivings remained strongly influential during the transients, though affected by the rate of change.
Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.
A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

PubMed

Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2006-07-01

Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.
Simple sugar intake and hepatocellular carcinoma: epidemiological and mechanistic insight.

PubMed

Laguna, Juan Carlos; Alegret, Marta; Roglans, Núria

2014-12-22

Sugar intake has dramatically increased during the last few decades. Specifically, there has been a clear trend towards higher consumption of fructose and high fructose corn syrup, which are the most common added sugars in processed food, soft drinks and other sweetened beverages. Although still controversial, this rising trend in simple sugar consumption has been positively associated with weight gain and obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Interestingly, all of these metabolic alterations have also been related to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. The purpose of this review is to discuss the evidence coming from epidemiological studies and data from animal models relating the consumption of simple sugars, and specifically fructose, with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and to gain insight into the putative molecular mechanisms involved.
Trend-outflow method for understanding interactions of surface water with groundwater and atmospheric water for eight reaches of the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Sheng, Zhuping

2011-11-01

SummaryAtmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater interact very actively through hydrologic processes such as precipitation, infiltration, seepage, irrigation, drainage, evaporation, and evapotranspiration in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. A trend-outflow method has been developed in this paper to gain a better understanding of the interactions based on cumulated inflow and outflow data for any river reaches of interest. A general trend-outflow equation was derived by associating the net interaction of surface water with atmospheric water as a polynomial of inflow and the net interaction of surface water with groundwater as a constant based on surface water budget. Linear and quadratic relations are probably two common trend-outflow types in the real world. It was found that trend-outflows of the Upper Rio Grande reaches, Española, Albuquerque, Socorro-Engle, Palomas, and Rincon are linear with inflow, while those of reaches, Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are quadratic. Reaches Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are found as water deficit reaches mainly for irrigated agriculture in extreme drought years.
Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.
A Simple Piece of Apparatus to Aid the Understanding of the Relationship between Angular Velocity and Linear Velocity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unsal, Yasin

2011-01-01

One of the subjects that is confusing and difficult for students to fully comprehend is the concept of angular velocity and linear velocity. It is the relationship between linear and angular velocity that students find difficult; most students understand linear motion in isolation. In this article, we detail the design, construction and…
A Randomized, Double-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled Study to Compare the Safety and Efficacy of Low Dose Enhanced Wild Blueberry Powder and Wild Blueberry Extract (ThinkBlue™) in Maintenance of Episodic and Working Memory in Older Adults.

PubMed

Whyte, Adrian R; Cheng, Nancy; Fromentin, Emilie; Williams, Claire M

2018-05-23

Previous research has shown beneficial effects of polyphenol-rich diets in ameliorating cognitive decline in aging adults. Here, using a randomized, double blinded, placebo-controlled chronic intervention, we investigated the effect of two proprietary blueberry formulations on cognitive performance in older adults; a whole wild blueberry powder at 500 mg (WBP500) and 1000 mg (WBP1000) and a purified extract at 100 mg (WBE111). One hundred and twenty-two older adults (65⁻80 years) were randomly allocated to a 6-month, daily regimen of either placebo or one of the three interventions. Participants were tested at baseline, 3, and 6 months on a battery of cognitive tasks targeting episodic memory, working memory and executive function, alongside mood and cardiovascular health parameters. Linear mixed model analysis found intervention to be a significant predictor of delayed word recognition on the Reys Auditory Verbal Learning Task (RAVLT), with simple contrast analysis revealing significantly better performance following WBE111 at 3 months. Similarly, performance on the Corsi Block task was predicted by treatment, with simple contrast analysis revealing a trend for better performance at 3 months following WBE111. Treatment also significantly predicted systolic blood pressure (SBP) with simple contrast analysis revealing lower SBP following intervention with WBE111 in comparison to placebo. These results indicate 3 months intervention with WBE111 can facilitate better episodic memory performance in an elderly population and reduce cardiovascular risk factors over 6 months.
Improving validation methods for molecular diagnostics: application of Bland-Altman, Deming and simple linear regression analyses in assay comparison and evaluation for next-generation sequencing

PubMed Central

Misyura, Maksym; Sukhai, Mahadeo A; Kulasignam, Vathany; Zhang, Tong; Kamel-Reid, Suzanne; Stockley, Tracy L

2018-01-01

Aims A standard approach in test evaluation is to compare results of the assay in validation to results from previously validated methods. For quantitative molecular diagnostic assays, comparison of test values is often performed using simple linear regression and the coefficient of determination (R2), using R2 as the primary metric of assay agreement. However, the use of R2 alone does not adequately quantify constant or proportional errors required for optimal test evaluation. More extensive statistical approaches, such as Bland-Altman and expanded interpretation of linear regression methods, can be used to more thoroughly compare data from quantitative molecular assays. Methods We present the application of Bland-Altman and linear regression statistical methods to evaluate quantitative outputs from next-generation sequencing assays (NGS). NGS-derived data sets from assay validation experiments were used to demonstrate the utility of the statistical methods. Results Both Bland-Altman and linear regression were able to detect the presence and magnitude of constant and proportional error in quantitative values of NGS data. Deming linear regression was used in the context of assay comparison studies, while simple linear regression was used to analyse serial dilution data. Bland-Altman statistical approach was also adapted to quantify assay accuracy, including constant and proportional errors, and precision where theoretical and empirical values were known. Conclusions The complementary application of the statistical methods described in this manuscript enables more extensive evaluation of performance characteristics of quantitative molecular assays, prior to implementation in the clinical molecular laboratory. PMID:28747393
Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Trunk motion and gait characteristics of pregnant women when walking: report of a longitudinal study with a control group

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A longitudinal repeated measures design over pregnancy and post-birth, with a control group would provide insight into the mechanical adaptations of the body under conditions of changing load during a common female human lifespan condition, while minimizing the influences of inter human differences. The objective was to investigate systematic changes in the range of motion for the pelvic and thoracic segments of the spine, the motion between these segments (thoracolumbar spine) and temporospatial characteristics of step width, stride length and velocity during walking as pregnancy progresses and post-birth. Methods Nine pregnant women were investigated when walking along a walkway at a self-selected velocity using an 8 camera motion analysis system on four occasions throughout pregnancy and once post birth. A control group of twelve non-pregnant nulliparous women were tested on three occasions over the same time period. The existence of linear trends for change was investigated. Results As pregnancy progresses there was a significant linear trend for increase in step width (p = 0.05) and a significant linear trend for decrease in stride length (p = 0.05). Concurrently there was a significant linear trend for decrease in the range of motion of the pelvic segment (p = 0.03) and thoracolumbar spine (p = 0.01) about a vertical axis (side to side rotation), and the pelvic segment (p = 0.04) range of motion around an anterio-posterior axis (side tilt). Post-birth, step width readapted whereas pelvic (p = 0.02) and thoracic (p < 0.001) segment flexion-extension range of motion decreased and increased respectively. The magnitude of all changes was greater than that accounted for with natural variability with re testing. Conclusions As pregnancy progressed and post-birth there were significant linear trends seen in biomechanical changes when walking at a self-determined natural speed that were greater than that accounted for by natural variability with repeated testing. Not all adaptations were resolved by eight weeks post birth. PMID:23514204
A Simple Demonstration of Atomic and Molecular Orbitals Using Circular Magnets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chakraborty, Maharudra; Mukhopadhyay, Subrata; Das, Ranendu Sekhar

2014-01-01

A quite simple and inexpensive technique is described here to represent the approximate shapes of atomic orbitals and the molecular orbitals formed by them following the principles of the linear combination of atomic orbitals (LCAO) method. Molecular orbitals of a few simple molecules can also be pictorially represented. Instructors can employ the…
Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.
Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years). APC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

1997-01-01

Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early developmental years.
Simple linear and multivariate regression models.

PubMed

Rodríguez del Águila, M M; Benítez-Parejo, N

2011-01-01

In biomedical research it is common to find problems in which we wish to relate a response variable to one or more variables capable of describing the behaviour of the former variable by means of mathematical models. Regression techniques are used to this effect, in which an equation is determined relating the two variables. While such equations can have different forms, linear equations are the most widely used form and are easy to interpret. The present article describes simple and multiple linear regression models, how they are calculated, and how their applicability assumptions are checked. Illustrative examples are provided, based on the use of the freely accessible R program. Copyright © 2011 SEICAP. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement. PMID:28484413
Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.
Twenty-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in India and influence of educational status.

PubMed

Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Gupta, V P; Agrawal, Aachu; Gaur, Kiran; Deedwania, Prakash C

2012-12-01

Urban middle-socioeconomic status (SES) subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income countries. To determine secular trends in risk factors among this population and to correlate risks with educational status we performed epidemiological studies in India. Five cross-sectional studies were performed in middle-SES urban locations in Jaipur, India from years 1992 to 2010. Cluster sampling was performed. Subjects (men, women) aged 20-59 years evaluated were 712 (459, 253) in 1992-94, 558 (286, 272) in 1999-2001, 374 (179, 195) in 2002-03, 887 (414, 473) in 2004-05, and 530 (324, 206) in 2009-10. Data were obtained by history, anthropometry, and fasting blood glucose and lipids estimation. Response rates varied from 55 to 75%. Mean values and risk factor prevalence were determined. Secular trends were identified using quadratic and log-linear regression and chi-squared for trend. Across the studies, there was high prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and lipid abnormalities. Age- and sex-adjusted trends showed significant increases in mean body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (quadratic and log-linear regression, p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure (BP) decreased while insignificant changes were observed for waist-hip ratio and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Categorical trends showed increase in overweight and decrease in smoking (p < 0.05); insignificant changes were observed in truncal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes. Adjustment for educational status attenuated linear trends in BMI and total and LDL cholesterol and accentuated trends in systolic BP, glucose, and HDL cholesterol. There was significant association of an increase in education with decline in smoking and an increase in overweight (two-line regression p < 0.05). In Indian urban middle-SES subjects there is high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a 20-year period BMI and overweight increased, smoking and systolic BP decreased, and truncal obesity, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes remained stable. Increasing educational status attenuated trends for systolic BP, glucose and HDL cholesterol, and BMI.
Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement.
Magmatic Flow Record From AMS Data La Gloria Pluton, Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez, F.; Payacan, I. J.; Calderon, S.

2011-12-01

La Gloria Pluton (LGP) is a 10 Ma epizonal intrusion in the Southern Andes, located 40 km east of Santiago, in central Chile. 20 km long and 5 km wide LPG has a thickness of 2.5 km, in the form of a NW elongating inverted canoe. LGP intrudes Miocene volcanics as NS extending cluster of Miocene granitoids. LGP was emplaced at the west of an inverse fault system without exhibiting significant post-intrusion deformation. The fault system includes the Laguna Negra Fault and the El Coironal Fault, at its southern and northern ends respectively. LGP has been interpreted to have had a short cooling time, where subsolidus reequilibration was not pervasive, allowing identification of early and late magmatic conditions and suggesting it to be a single closed chamber. LGP is zoned vertically from granodiorite/quartz monzodiorite to quartz monzonite towards the roof, where hornblende and biotite and minor magnetite-ilmenite are omnipresent. AMS samples were collected at 39 sites to determine of the magnetic anisotropy susceptibility tensor. Magnetic fabric is generally oblate and anisotropy values range from 1.3 to 13.9%, consistent with the prescience magnetite and ilmenite. Magnetic lineation (ML) has a NNW trend, a subhorizontal dip and values between 0.4 and 5.3%. Magnetic foliation (MF) has a NW trend and dip varying from vertical at the walls of the intrusive to subhorizontal inside and under the roof. MF values ranges between 0.8 and 13.3%. Since linear trend of MF is restricted to the LGP interior only and can not be caused by a simple inverse fault system, we interpret the AMS results as a consequence of magmatic flow. ML represents the main flow direction, where several shallow plutons intrude at 10Ma in NW direction. MF is consequence of convection, related to cooling and differentiation, and is comparable to numerical simulations of magma fluid-dynamics during differentiation (R4). Two profiles (EW and NS) indicate that MF linear trend is from 29°/km to 50°/km, where the width of the pluton is 6 and 3.5 km respectively. Vertical MF represents vertical magma flows at the walls, whereas horizontal MF represents horizontal magma flow at the interior and under the roof the chamber. This suggests that a generalization of the MF trend allows determining the subsurface width of a pluton. Acknowledgments This research has been developed by the PBCT-PDA07 project and the FONDECYT (National Fund for Scientific & Technological Development) 11100241 project, both granted by CONICYT (Chilean National Commission for Science and Technology). We thank 4ea for logistic support in field activities in an area difficult to access.
Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897
Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Carl F.

A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…
Investigation of the 16-year and 18-year ZTD Time Series Derived from GPS Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bałdysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina; KroszczyńSki, Krzysztof

2015-08-01

The GPS system can play an important role in activities related to the monitoring of climate. Long time series, coherent strategy, and very high quality of tropospheric parameter Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) estimated on the basis of GPS data analysis allows to investigate its usefulness for climate research as a direct GPS product. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year time series derived from EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. For 58 stations Lomb-Scargle periodograms were performed in order to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Seasonal components and linear trend were estimated using Least Square Estimation (LSE) and Mann—Kendall trend test was used to confirm the presence of a linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the impact of the length of time series on trend value, comparison between 16 and 18 years were performed.
Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.
On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783
Guidelines and Procedures for Computing Time-Series Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads from In-Stream Turbidity-Sensor and Streamflow Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Patrick P.; Gray, John R.; Glysson, G. Douglas; Ziegler, Andrew C.

2009-01-01

In-stream continuous turbidity and streamflow data, calibrated with measured suspended-sediment concentration data, can be used to compute a time series of suspended-sediment concentration and load at a stream site. Development of a simple linear (ordinary least squares) regression model for computing suspended-sediment concentrations from instantaneous turbidity data is the first step in the computation process. If the model standard percentage error (MSPE) of the simple linear regression model meets a minimum criterion, this model should be used to compute a time series of suspended-sediment concentrations. Otherwise, a multiple linear regression model using paired instantaneous turbidity and streamflow data is developed and compared to the simple regression model. If the inclusion of the streamflow variable proves to be statistically significant and the uncertainty associated with the multiple regression model results in an improvement over that for the simple linear model, the turbidity-streamflow multiple linear regression model should be used to compute a suspended-sediment concentration time series. The computed concentration time series is subsequently used with its paired streamflow time series to compute suspended-sediment loads by standard U.S. Geological Survey techniques. Once an acceptable regression model is developed, it can be used to compute suspended-sediment concentration beyond the period of record used in model development with proper ongoing collection and analysis of calibration samples. Regression models to compute suspended-sediment concentrations are generally site specific and should never be considered static, but they represent a set period in a continually dynamic system in which additional data will help verify any change in sediment load, type, and source.
Using crosscorrelation techniques to determine the impulse response of linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dallabetta, Michael J.; Li, Harry W.; Demuth, Howard B.

1993-01-01

A crosscorrelation method of measuring the impulse response of linear systems is presented. The technique, implementation, and limitations of this method are discussed. A simple system is designed and built using discrete components and the impulse response of a linear circuit is measured. Theoretical and software simulation results are presented.
Dynamics of a distributed drill string system: Characteristic parameters and stability maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarsnes, Ulf Jakob F.; van de Wouw, Nathan

2018-03-01

This paper involves the dynamic (stability) analysis of distributed drill-string systems. A minimal set of parameters characterizing the linearized, axial-torsional dynamics of a distributed drill string coupled through the bit-rock interaction is derived. This is found to correspond to five parameters for a simple drill string and eight parameters for a two-sectioned drill-string (e.g., corresponding to the pipe and collar sections of a drilling system). These dynamic characterizations are used to plot the inverse gain margin of the system, parametrized in the non-dimensional parameters, effectively creating a stability map covering the full range of realistic physical parameters. This analysis reveals a complex spectrum of dynamics not evident in stability analysis with lumped models, thus indicating the importance of analysis using distributed models. Moreover, it reveals trends concerning stability properties depending on key system parameters useful in the context of system and control design aiming at the mitigation of vibrations.
Comparison of CEAS and Williams-type models for spring wheat yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. L. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The CEAS and Williams-type yield models are both based on multiple regression analysis of historical time series data at CRD level. The CEAS model develops a separate relation for each CRD; the Williams-type model pools CRD data to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analyses are USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, and variables derived from these. The Williams-type model also used soil texture and topographic information. Technological trend is represented in both by piecewise linear functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test of each model (1970-1979) demonstrate that the models are very similar in performance in all respects. Both models are about equally objective, adequate, timely, simple, and inexpensive. Both consider scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail. Neither provides a good current measure of modeled yield reliability. The CEAS model is considered very slightly preferable for AgRISTARS applications.
A simple-shear rheometer for linear viscoelastic characterization of vocal fold tissues at phonatory frequencies.

PubMed

Chan, Roger W; Rodriguez, Maritza L

2008-08-01

Previous studies reporting the linear viscoelastic shear properties of the human vocal fold cover or mucosa have been based on torsional rheometry, with measurements limited to low audio frequencies, up to around 80 Hz. This paper describes the design and validation of a custom-built, controlled-strain, linear, simple-shear rheometer system capable of direct empirical measurements of viscoelastic shear properties at phonatory frequencies. A tissue specimen was subjected to simple shear between two parallel, rigid acrylic plates, with a linear motor creating a translational sinusoidal displacement of the specimen via the upper plate, and the lower plate transmitting the harmonic shear force resulting from the viscoelastic response of the specimen. The displacement of the specimen was measured by a linear variable differential transformer whereas the shear force was detected by a piezoelectric transducer. The frequency response characteristics of these system components were assessed by vibration experiments with accelerometers. Measurements of the viscoelastic shear moduli (G' and G") of a standard ANSI S2.21 polyurethane material and those of human vocal fold cover specimens were made, along with estimation of the system signal and noise levels. Preliminary results showed that the rheometer can provide valid and reliable rheometric data of vocal fold lamina propria specimens at frequencies of up to around 250 Hz, well into the phonatory range.
Identification of geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gryc, G. (Principal Investigator); Lathram, E. H.

1972-01-01

The authors have identified the following significant results. As a precursor to the ERTS-1 investigation, the spatial relationship of geostructures seen on Nimbus IDCS photographs to the distribution of mineralized areas in Alaska and western Canada was analyzed to determine the possible metallogenic significance of the geostructures. In Canada, mercury and porphyry molybdenum deposits are closely associated with strong northwest-trending fault systems; the development of mineralized regions seems related to major crustal zones or fractures trending southwestward across the Cordillera from the Precambrian shield. In Alaska, comparison of the northeast- and northwest-trending set of possible crustal structures shown on the Nimbus photo, with the distribution of known mineral deposits suggests a similar relationship. The mineralized region of massive sulfides in Prince William Sound and upper Copper River areas and of porphyry coppers in the Nabesna area forms a broad northeast-trending belt possibly related to the Minto Arch on the Shield. The belt of metalliferous deposits in the western Alaska Range follows a comparable northeast trend. Mercury deposits, suggested by many to be fault-controlled, together with most tin and tungsten deposits, occupy a northeast-trending belt between the Bristol Bay-Mackenzie Bay linear and extensions of a linear along the lower Yukon River. This belt intersects the northwest-trending Canadian belt of similar deposits in the Fairbanks area.
Small field depth dose profile of 6 MV photon beam in a simple air-water heterogeneity combination: A comparison between anisotropic analytical algorithm dose estimation with thermoluminescent dosimeter dose measurement.

PubMed

Mandal, Abhijit; Ram, Chhape; Mourya, Ankur; Singh, Navin

2017-01-01

To establish trends of estimation error of dose calculation by anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) with respect to dose measured by thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) in air-water heterogeneity for small field size photon. TLDs were irradiated along the central axis of the photon beam in four different solid water phantom geometries using three small field size single beams. The depth dose profiles were estimated using AAA calculation model for each field sizes. The estimated and measured depth dose profiles were compared. The over estimation (OE) within air cavity were dependent on field size (f) and distance (x) from solid water-air interface and formulated as OE = - (0.63 f + 9.40) x2+ (-2.73 f + 58.11) x + (0.06 f2 - 1.42 f + 15.67). In postcavity adjacent point and distal points from the interface have dependence on field size (f) and equations are OE = 0.42 f2 - 8.17 f + 71.63, OE = 0.84 f2 - 1.56 f + 17.57, respectively. The trend of estimation error of AAA dose calculation algorithm with respect to measured value have been formulated throughout the radiation path length along the central axis of 6 MV photon beam in air-water heterogeneity combination for small field size photon beam generated from a 6 MV linear accelerator.
A simple attitude control of quadrotor helicopter based on Ziegler-Nichols rules for tuning PD parameters.

PubMed

He, ZeFang; Zhao, Long

2014-01-01

An attitude control strategy based on Ziegler-Nichols rules for tuning PD (proportional-derivative) parameters of quadrotor helicopters is presented to solve the problem that quadrotor tends to be instable. This problem is caused by the narrow definition domain of attitude angles of quadrotor helicopters. The proposed controller is nonlinear and consists of a linear part and a nonlinear part. The linear part is a PD controller with PD parameters tuned by Ziegler-Nichols rules and acts on the quadrotor decoupled linear system after feedback linearization; the nonlinear part is a feedback linearization item which converts a nonlinear system into a linear system. It can be seen from the simulation results that the attitude controller proposed in this paper is highly robust, and its control effect is better than the other two nonlinear controllers. The nonlinear parts of the other two nonlinear controllers are the same as the attitude controller proposed in this paper. The linear part involves a PID (proportional-integral-derivative) controller with the PID controller parameters tuned by Ziegler-Nichols rules and a PD controller with the PD controller parameters tuned by GA (genetic algorithms). Moreover, this attitude controller is simple and easy to implement.

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.
Detecting trends in academic research from a citation network using network representation learning

PubMed Central

Mori, Junichiro; Ochi, Masanao; Sakata, Ichiro

2018-01-01

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. PMID:29782521
The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

PubMed Central

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520
The trend odds model for ordinal data.

PubMed

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends Between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities–related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data source was the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (RePORTER) system. The RePORTER data were merged with data from the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. General linear models were used to examine the longitudinal trends and how these trends were associated with type of grant and institutional characteristics. Results: NIA funded 825 grants on health disparities between 2000 and 2010, expending approximately 330 million dollars. There was an overall linear increase over time in both the total number of grants and amount of funding, with an outlying spike during 2009. These trends were significantly influenced by several moderators including funding mechanism and type of institution. Implications: The findings highlight NIA’s current efforts to fund health disparities grants to reduce disparities among older adults. Gerontology researchers may find this information very useful for their future grant submissions. PMID:22454392
A reassessment of the Archean-Mesoproterozoic tectonic development of the southeastern Chhattisgarh Basin, Central India through detailed aeromagnetic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, M.; Ramesh Babu, V.; Markandeyulu, A.; Raju, B. V. S. N.; Chaturvedi, A. K.; Roy, M. K.

2017-08-01

We constrained the geological framework over polydeformed Paleoproterozoic Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and addressed the tectonic evolution of Singhora basin in the fringes of Bastar Craton, central India by utilizing aeromagnetic data interpretation, 2.5D forward modelling and 3D magnetic susceptibility inversions. The Sonakhan Greenstone Belt exposes volcano-sedimentary sequences of the Sonakhan Group within NNW-SSE to NW-SE trending linear belts surrounded by granite gneisses, which are unconformably overlain by sedimentary rocks of Chhattisgarh Basin. The orientations of aeromagnetic anomalies are coincident with geological trends and appear to correlate with lithology and geologic structure. Regional magnetic anomalies and lineaments reveal both NNW-SSE and NE-SW trends. Prominent E-W trending linear, high amplitude magnetic anomalies are interpreted as the Trans-Chhattisgarh Aeromagnetic Lineament (TCAL). NW-SE trending aeromagnetic signatures related to Sonakhan Greenstone Belt extends below the Singhora sedimentary rocks and forms the basement in the west. The analysis suggests that TCAL is a block fault with northern block down-thrown and affected the basement rocks comprising the Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and Samblapur Granitoids. The episode of faulting represented by the TCAL is pre-Singhora sedimentation and played a vital role in basin evolution. The basement configuration image generated by estimates of depth to magnetic basement suggests a complex pattern of NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending depressions separated by a linear N-S trending basement ridge. It is inferred from the 3D magnetic susceptibility inversion that the thickness of sediments is more towards the eastern basin margin and the N-S ridge is a manifestation of post sedimentary faulting. Results of 2.5D modelling of a WNW-ESE profile across the Singhora Basin combined with results from 3D inversion suggest suggests the basin subsidence was controlled by NE-SW trending regional faults in an active system. The basin geometry evolved by E-W block faulting overprinted by NE-SW trending pre- to syn-depositional normal faults generating NE-SW depression, which are affected by N-S trend post-sedimentary faulting. Though the present work relates the basin evolution with the initiation of rift basin, it warrants further work to establish the deformation within the basin pertaining to the proximal thrust and uplift along the craton fringe.
Code Samples Used for Complexity and Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivancevic, Vladimir G.; Reid, Darryn J.

2015-11-01

The following sections are included: * MathematicaⓇ Code * Generic Chaotic Simulator * Vector Differential Operators * NLS Explorer * 2C++ Code * C++ Lambda Functions for Real Calculus * Accelerometer Data Processor * Simple Predictor-Corrector Integrator * Solving the BVP with the Shooting Method * Linear Hyperbolic PDE Solver * Linear Elliptic PDE Solver * Method of Lines for a Set of the NLS Equations * C# Code * Iterative Equation Solver * Simulated Annealing: A Function Minimum * Simple Nonlinear Dynamics * Nonlinear Pendulum Simulator * Lagrangian Dynamics Simulator * Complex-Valued Crowd Attractor Dynamics * Freeform Fortran Code * Lorenz Attractor Simulator * Complex Lorenz Attractor * Simple SGE Soliton * Complex Signal Presentation * Gaussian Wave Packet * Hermitian Matrices * Euclidean L2-Norm * Vector/Matrix Operations * Plain C-Code: Levenberg-Marquardt Optimizer * Free Basic Code: 2D Crowd Dynamics with 3000 Agents
SU-E-T-88: Comprehensive Automated Daily QA for Hypo- Fractionated Treatments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McGuinness, C; Morin, O

2014-06-01

Purpose: The trend towards more SBRT treatments with fewer high dose fractions places increased importance on daily QA. Patient plan specific QA with 3%/3mm gamma analysis and daily output constancy checks may not be enough to guarantee the level of accuracy required for SBRT treatments. But increasing the already extensive amount of QA procedures that are required is a daunting proposition. We performed a feasibility study for more comprehensive automated daily QA that could improve the diagnostic capabilities of QA without increasing workload. Methods: We performed the study on a Siemens Artiste linear accelerator using the integrated flat panel EPID.more » We included square fields, a picket fence, overlap and representative IMRT fields to measure output, flatness, symmetry, beam center, and percent difference from the standard. We also imposed a set of machine errors: MLC leaf position, machine output, and beam steering to compare with the standard. Results: Daily output was consistent within +/− 1%. Change in steering current by 1.4% and 2.4% resulted in a 3.2% and 6.3% change in flatness. 1 and 2mm MLC leaf offset errors were visibly obvious in difference plots, but passed a 3%/3mm gamma analysis. A simple test of transmission in a picket fence can catch a leaf offset error of a single leaf by 1mm. The entire morning QA sequence is performed in less than 30 minutes and images are automatically analyzed. Conclusion: Automated QA procedures could be used to provide more comprehensive information about the machine with less time and human involvement. We have also shown that other simple tests are better able to catch MLC leaf position errors than a 3%/3mm gamma analysis commonly used for IMRT and modulated arc treatments. Finally, this information could be used to watch trends of the machine and predict problems before they lead to costly machine downtime.« less
Global perspective of tobacco habits and lung cancer: a lesson for third world countries.

PubMed

Pandey, M; Mathew, A; Nair, M K

1999-08-01

Over the past 50 years, a dominant role of tobacco smoking in lung cancer causation has been demonstrated. Almost three-quarters of the lung cancer cases can be attributed to tobacco smoking. The global variation in lung cancer incidence is thought to be directly proportional to the smoking habits prevalent in that part of the world. Lung cancer shows a greater upward trend in incidence in the USA, in central and Eastern Europe than ever before, especially in females. Japan too has recorded a 10-fold increase in incidence in both sexes since 1975. In India the problem is further compounded by absence of authentic data on time trend. The recent trend of available data suggests a more or less linear trend. At present lung cancer ranks among the top three killers in men in almost every metropolis in India. The highest incidence rate has been recorded in Bombay (14.6/ 100,000) and the lowest in Barshi (2.0/100,000). How much of these can be attributed to smoking cannot be commented on as no case-control or cohort studies have ever been undertaken in India. The situation is more alarming in other developing countries, where there is no authentic data on tobacco use or lung cancer incidences. The relationship between tobacco and cancer is both simple and complex. The majority of the cancer patients are smokers, while the cancer incidence is not proportional among smokers. To explain this, various factors such as type of smoke, duration of smoke, amount of carcinogens, presence of activation and metabolism pathways, and lately genetic environment interaction, have been put forward. It appears that the relationship is more complex than at first thought. In developing countries, it is further compounded by lack of data on usage and dependence of the economies of these countries on tobacco. The situation is alarming, with ever-increasing incidence among women and non-smokers exposed to smoke (passive smokers). Tobacco use has already become an epidemic.
Outcome after introduction of laparoscopic appendectomy in children: A cohort study.

PubMed

Svensson, Jan F; Patkova, Barbora; Almström, Markus; Eaton, Simon; Wester, Tomas

2016-03-01

Acute appendicitis in children is common and the optimal treatment modality is still debated, even if recent data suggest that laparoscopic surgery may result in shorter postoperative length of stay without an increased number of complications. The aim of the study was to compare the outcome of open and laparoscopic appendectomies during a transition period. This was a retrospective cohort study with prospectively collected data. All patients who underwent an operation for suspected appendicitis at the Astrid Lindgren Children's Hospital in Stockholm between 2006 and 2010 were included in the study. 1745 children were included in this study, of whom 1010 had a laparoscopic intervention. There were no significant differences in the rate of postoperative abscesses, wound infections, readmissions or reoperations between the two groups. The median operating time was longer for laparoscopic appendectomy than for open appendectomy, 51 vs. 37minutes (p<0.05). The postoperative length of stay was similar in the two groups. A simple comparison between the groups suggested that laparoscopic appendectomy had a shorter median postoperative length of stay, 43 vs. 57hours (p<0.05). However, there was a trend in time for a shorter postoperative length of stay, and a trend for more of the procedures to be performed laparoscopically over time so on regression analysis, the apparent decrease in length of stay with laparoscopy could be ascribed to the general trend toward decreased length of stay over time, with no specific additional effect of laparoscopy. Our data show no difference in outcome between open and laparoscopic surgery for acute appendicitis in children in regard of complications. The initial assumption that the patients treated with laparoscopic surgery had a shorter postoperative stay was not confirmed with linear regression, which showed that the assumed difference was due only to a trend toward shorter postoperative length of stay over time, regardless of the surgical intervention. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Improving validation methods for molecular diagnostics: application of Bland-Altman, Deming and simple linear regression analyses in assay comparison and evaluation for next-generation sequencing.

PubMed

Misyura, Maksym; Sukhai, Mahadeo A; Kulasignam, Vathany; Zhang, Tong; Kamel-Reid, Suzanne; Stockley, Tracy L

2018-02-01

A standard approach in test evaluation is to compare results of the assay in validation to results from previously validated methods. For quantitative molecular diagnostic assays, comparison of test values is often performed using simple linear regression and the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), using R 2 as the primary metric of assay agreement. However, the use of R 2 alone does not adequately quantify constant or proportional errors required for optimal test evaluation. More extensive statistical approaches, such as Bland-Altman and expanded interpretation of linear regression methods, can be used to more thoroughly compare data from quantitative molecular assays. We present the application of Bland-Altman and linear regression statistical methods to evaluate quantitative outputs from next-generation sequencing assays (NGS). NGS-derived data sets from assay validation experiments were used to demonstrate the utility of the statistical methods. Both Bland-Altman and linear regression were able to detect the presence and magnitude of constant and proportional error in quantitative values of NGS data. Deming linear regression was used in the context of assay comparison studies, while simple linear regression was used to analyse serial dilution data. Bland-Altman statistical approach was also adapted to quantify assay accuracy, including constant and proportional errors, and precision where theoretical and empirical values were known. The complementary application of the statistical methods described in this manuscript enables more extensive evaluation of performance characteristics of quantitative molecular assays, prior to implementation in the clinical molecular laboratory. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.
How Darcy's equation is linked to the linear reservoir at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savenije, Hubert H. G.

2017-04-01

In groundwater hydrology two simple linear equations exist that describe the relation between groundwater flow and the gradient that drives it: Darcy's equation and the linear reservoir. Both equations are empirical at heart: Darcy's equation at the laboratory scale and the linear reservoir at the watershed scale. Although at first sight they show similarity, without having detailed knowledge of the structure of the underlying aquifers it is not trivial to upscale Darcy's equation to the watershed scale. In this paper, a relatively simple connection is provided between the two, based on the assumption that the groundwater system is organized by an efficient drainage network, a mostly invisible pattern that has evolved over geological time scales. This drainage network provides equally distributed resistance to flow along the streamlines that connect the active groundwater body to the stream, much like a leaf is organized to provide all stomata access to moisture at equal resistance.
The non-linear response of a muscle in transverse compression: assessment of geometry influence using a finite element model.

PubMed

Gras, Laure-Lise; Mitton, David; Crevier-Denoix, Nathalie; Laporte, Sébastien

2012-01-01

Most recent finite element models that represent muscles are generic or subject-specific models that use complex, constitutive laws. Identification of the parameters of such complex, constitutive laws could be an important limit for subject-specific approaches. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of modelling muscle behaviour in compression with a parametric model and a simple, constitutive law. A quasi-static compression test was performed on the muscles of dogs. A parametric finite element model was designed using a linear, elastic, constitutive law. A multi-variate analysis was performed to assess the effects of geometry on muscle response. An inverse method was used to define Young's modulus. The non-linear response of the muscles was obtained using a subject-specific geometry and a linear elastic law. Thus, a simple muscle model can be used to have a bio-faithful, biomechanical response.
A Simple Numerical Procedure for the Simulation of "Lifelike" Linear-Sweep Voltammograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozzini, Benedetto P.

2000-01-01

Practical linear-sweep voltammograms seldom resemble the theoretical ones shown in textbooks. This is because several phenomena (activation, mass transport, ohmic resistance) control the kinetics over different potential ranges scanned during the potential sweep. These effects are generally treated separately in the didactic literature, yet they have never been "assembled" in a way that allows the educational use of real experiments. This makes linear-sweep voltammetric experiments almost unusable in the teaching of physical chemistry. A simple approach to the classroom description of "lifelike" experimental results is proposed in this paper. Analytical expressions of linear sweep voltammograms are provided. The actual numerical evaluations can be carried out with a pocket calculator. Two typical examples are executed and comparison with experimental data is described. This approach to teaching electrode kinetics has proved an effective tool to provide students with an insight into the effects of electrochemical parameters and operating conditions.
Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokár, T.; Horváth, D.

2012-11-01

Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency returns; nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J. James, Simple trend-following strategies in currency trading, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the technical analysis. In this article we introduced various statistical quantities examining role of single temporal discretized trend or multitude of grouped trends corresponding to different time delays. Our specific analysis based predominantly on Euro-dollar currency pair data at the one minute frequency suggests the importance of cumulative nonrandom effect of trends on the potential forecasting performance.
Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.
Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.
Valuation of financial models with non-linear state spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Nick

2001-02-01

A common assumption in valuation models for derivative securities is that the underlying state variables take values in a linear state space. We discuss numerical implementation issues in an interest rate model with a simple non-linear state space, formulating and comparing Monte Carlo, finite difference and lattice numerical solution methods. We conclude that, at least in low dimensional spaces, non-linear interest rate models may be viable.
Preparation of SmBCO layer for the surface optimization of GdYBCO film by MOCVD process based on a simple self-heating technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ruipeng; Zhang, Fei; Liu, Qing; Xia, Yudong; Lu, Yuming; Cai, Chuanbing; Tao, Bowan; Li, Yanrong

2018-07-01

The MOCVD process was adopted to grow the REBa2Cu3O7-δ ((REBCO), RE = rare earth elements) films on the LaMnO3 (LMO) templates. Meanwhile, the LMO-template tapes are heated by the joule effect after applying a heating current through the Hastelloy metal substrates. The surface of GdYBCO films prepared by MOCVD method is prone to form outgrowths. So the surface morphology of GdYBCO film is optimized by depositing the SmBCO layer, which is an important process method for the preparation of high-quality multilayer REBCO films. At last, the GdYBCO/SmBCO/GdYBCO multilayer films were successfully prepared on the LMO templates based on the simple self-heating method. It is demonstrated that the GdYBCO surface was well improved by the characterization analysis of scanning electron microscope. And the Δω of REBCO (005) and Δφ of REBCO (103), which were performed by an X-ray diffraction system, are respectively 1.3° and 3.3° What's more, the critical current density (Jc) has been more than 3 MA/cm2 (77 K, 0 T) and the critical current (Ic) basically shows a trend of good linear increase with the increase of the number of REBCO layers.
Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Nan; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao

The long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data set generated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) has been widely used to monitor vegetation activity change. The third version of NDVI (NDVI3g) produced by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group was released recently. The comparisons between the new and old versions should be conducted for linking existing studies with future applications of NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation activity change. Based on simple and piecewise linear regression methods, this research made a comparative analysis between NDVIg and NDVI3g for monitoring vegetation activity change and its responses tomore » climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1982–2008. Our results indicated that there were large differences between NDVIg and NDVI3g in the spatial patterns for both the overall changing trends and the timing of Turning Points (TP) in NDVI time series, which spread over almost the entire study region. The average NDVI trend from NDVI3g was almost twice as great as that from NDVIg and the detected average timing of TP from NDVI3g was about one year later. Although the general spatial patterns were consistent between two data sets for detecting the responses of growing-season NDVI to temperature and precipitation changes, there were large differences in the response magnitude, with a higher response magnitude to temperature in NDVI3g and an opposite response to precipitation change for the two data sets. Finally, these results demonstrated that the NDVIg data set may underestimate the vegetation activity change trend and its response to climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the past three decades.« less
Methods for Evaluating Respondent Attrition in Web-Based Surveys.

PubMed

Hochheimer, Camille J; Sabo, Roy T; Krist, Alex H; Day, Teresa; Cyrus, John; Woolf, Steven H

2016-11-22

Electronic surveys are convenient, cost effective, and increasingly popular tools for collecting information. While the online platform allows researchers to recruit and enroll more participants, there is an increased risk of participant dropout in Web-based research. Often, these dropout trends are simply reported, adjusted for, or ignored altogether. To propose a conceptual framework that analyzes respondent attrition and demonstrates the utility of these methods with existing survey data. First, we suggest visualization of attrition trends using bar charts and survival curves. Next, we propose a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to detect or confirm significant attrition points. Finally, we suggest applications of existing statistical methods to investigate the effect of internal survey characteristics and patient characteristics on dropout. In order to apply this framework, we conducted a case study; a seventeen-item Informed Decision-Making (IDM) module addressing how and why patients make decisions about cancer screening. Using the framework, we were able to find significant attrition points at Questions 4, 6, 7, and 9, and were also able to identify participant responses and characteristics associated with dropout at these points and overall. When these methods were applied to survey data, significant attrition trends were revealed, both visually and empirically, that can inspire researchers to investigate the factors associated with survey dropout, address whether survey completion is associated with health outcomes, and compare attrition patterns between groups. The framework can be used to extract information beyond simple responses, can be useful during survey development, and can help determine the external validity of survey results. ©Camille J Hochheimer, Roy T Sabo, Alex H Krist, Teresa Day, John Cyrus, Steven H Woolf. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 22.11.2016.
Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.
Detection and recognition of simple spatial forms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, A. B.

1983-01-01

A model of human visual sensitivity to spatial patterns is constructed. The model predicts the visibility and discriminability of arbitrary two-dimensional monochrome images. The image is analyzed by a large array of linear feature sensors, which differ in spatial frequency, phase, orientation, and position in the visual field. All sensors have one octave frequency bandwidths, and increase in size linearly with eccentricity. Sensor responses are processed by an ideal Bayesian classifier, subject to uncertainty. The performance of the model is compared to that of the human observer in detecting and discriminating some simple images.
A Linear Theory for Inflatable Plates of Arbitrary Shape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McComb, Harvey G., Jr.

1961-01-01

A linear small-deflection theory is developed for the elastic behavior of inflatable plates of which Airmat is an example. Included in the theory are the effects of a small linear taper in the depth of the plate. Solutions are presented for some simple problems in the lateral deflection and vibration of constant-depth rectangular inflatable plates.
Computational Tools for Probing Interactions in Multiple Linear Regression, Multilevel Modeling, and Latent Curve Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preacher, Kristopher J.; Curran, Patrick J.; Bauer, Daniel J.

2006-01-01

Simple slopes, regions of significance, and confidence bands are commonly used to evaluate interactions in multiple linear regression (MLR) models, and the use of these techniques has recently been extended to multilevel or hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and latent curve analysis (LCA). However, conducting these tests and plotting the…
Cosmological N -body simulations with generic hot dark matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandbyge, Jacob; Hannestad, Steen, E-mail: jacobb@phys.au.dk, E-mail: sth@phys.au.dk

2017-10-01

We have calculated the non-linear effects of generic fermionic and bosonic hot dark matter components in cosmological N -body simulations. For sub-eV masses, the non-linear power spectrum suppression caused by thermal free-streaming resembles the one seen for massive neutrinos, whereas for masses larger than 1 eV, the non-linear relative suppression of power is smaller than in linear theory. We furthermore find that in the non-linear regime, one can map fermionic to bosonic models by performing a simple transformation.
Cosmological N-body simulations with generic hot dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandbyge, Jacob; Hannestad, Steen

2017-10-01

We have calculated the non-linear effects of generic fermionic and bosonic hot dark matter components in cosmological N-body simulations. For sub-eV masses, the non-linear power spectrum suppression caused by thermal free-streaming resembles the one seen for massive neutrinos, whereas for masses larger than 1 eV, the non-linear relative suppression of power is smaller than in linear theory. We furthermore find that in the non-linear regime, one can map fermionic to bosonic models by performing a simple transformation.
Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen; Moyer, Douglas; Mills, Aaron L.

2017-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.
Are physical activity levels associated with better health outcomes in people with epilepsy?

PubMed

Häfele, César Augusto; Freitas, Matheus Pintanel; da Silva, Marcelo Cozzensa; Rombaldi, Airton José

2017-07-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the association of physical activity in three categories (inactive, insufficiently active and active) with health outcomes in people with epilepsy. The dependent variables and the instruments used in the study were: a) quality of life - measured by Quality of Life in Epilepsy-31 for adults and Quality of Life in Epilepsy for Adolescents, b) side effects of medication - measured by Adverse Events Profile, c) depression - measured by Neurological Disorders Depression Inventory for Epilepsy, and d) state and trait anxiety - measured by State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Physical activity levels were analyzed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) for adults in the commuting and leisure domains and Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (PAQ-A). Simple and multiple linear regression was used in the statistical analysis. The cross-sectional study with one hundred and one individuals was conducted in Pelotas/RS, Brazil, at the Neurology Clinic of the Faculty of Medicine of the Federal University of Pelotas. In the crude analysis, physical activity was positively associated with quality of life (p<0.001) and negatively associated with depression (p=0.046), state of anxiety (p=0.014), trait of anxiety (p=0.015) and side effect of medication (p=0.01). In addition, physical activity levels explained 10% of the quality of life (R 2 =0.10). In the adjusted analysis, physical activity remained associated with side effect of medication (p=0.014) and was not associated with trait anxiety (p=0.066). However, quality of life showed a positive linear trend (p=0.001) while depression (p=0.033) and anxiety state (p=0.004) showed a negative trend according to physical activity levels. Physical activity was associated with health outcomes, and can be a nonpharmacological treatment in people with epilepsy for improving health and life conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Landsat analysis for uranium exploration in Northeast Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Keenan

1983-01-01

No uranium deposits are known in the Trabzon, Turkey region, and consequently, exploration criteria have not been defined. Nonetheless, by analogy with uranium deposits studied elsewhere, exploration guides are suggested to include dense concentrations of linear features, lineaments -- especially with northwest trend, acidic plutonic rocks, and alteration indicated by limonite. A suite of digitally processed images of a single Landsat scene served as the image base for mapping 3,376 linear features. Analysis of the linear feature data yielded two statistically significant trends, which in turn defined two sets of strong lineaments. Color composite images were used to map acidic plutonic rocks and areas of surficial limonitic materials. The Landsat interpretation yielded a map of these exploration guides that may be used to evaluate relative uranium potential. One area in particular shows a high coincidence of favorable indicators.
A Statistical Test for Identifying the Number of Creep Regimes When Using the Wilshire Equations for Creep Property Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Mark

2016-12-01

A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.
Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

PubMed

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.
A Simple Microsoft Excel Method to Predict Antibiotic Outbreaks and Underutilization.

PubMed

Miglis, Cristina; Rhodes, Nathaniel J; Avedissian, Sean N; Zembower, Teresa R; Postelnick, Michael; Wunderink, Richard G; Sutton, Sarah H; Scheetz, Marc H

2017-07-01

Benchmarking strategies are needed to promote the appropriate use of antibiotics. We have adapted a simple regressive method in Microsoft Excel that is easily implementable and creates predictive indices. This method trends consumption over time and can identify periods of over- and underuse at the hospital level. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:860-862.
Development of orientation tuning in simple cells of primary visual cortex

PubMed Central

Moore, Bartlett D.

2012-01-01

Orientation selectivity and its development are basic features of visual cortex. The original model of orientation selectivity proposes that elongated simple cell receptive fields are constructed from convergent input of an array of lateral geniculate nucleus neurons. However, orientation selectivity of simple cells in the visual cortex is generally greater than the linear contributions based on projections from spatial receptive field profiles. This implies that additional selectivity may arise from intracortical mechanisms. The hierarchical processing idea implies mainly linear connections, whereas cortical contributions are generally considered to be nonlinear. We have explored development of orientation selectivity in visual cortex with a focus on linear and nonlinear factors in a population of anesthetized 4-wk postnatal kittens and adult cats. Linear contributions are estimated from receptive field maps by which orientation tuning curves are generated and bandwidth is quantified. Nonlinear components are estimated as the magnitude of the power function relationship between responses measured from drifting sinusoidal gratings and those predicted from the spatial receptive field. Measured bandwidths for kittens are slightly larger than those in adults, whereas predicted bandwidths are substantially broader. These results suggest that relatively strong nonlinearities in early postnatal stages are substantially involved in the development of orientation tuning in visual cortex. PMID:22323631
Participation and Performance Trends in Triple Iron Ultra-triathlon – a Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Rosemann, Thomas; Lepers, Romuald

2012-01-01

Purpose The aims of the present study were to investigate (i) the changes in participation and performance and (ii) the gender difference in Triple Iron ultra-triathlon (11.4 km swimming, 540 km cycling and 126.6 km running) across years from 1988 to 2011. Methods For the cross-sectional data analysis, the association between with overall race times and split times was investigated using simple linear regression analyses and analysis of variance. For the longitudinal data analysis, the changes in race times for the five men and women with the highest number of participations were analysed using simple linear regression analyses. Results During the studied period, the number of finishers were 824 (71.4%) for men and 80 (78.4%) for women. Participation increased for men (r 2=0.27, P<0.01) while it remained stable for women (8%). Total race times were 2,146 ± 127.3 min for men and 2,615 ± 327.2 min for women (P<0.001). Total race time decreased for men (r 2=0.17; P=0.043), while it increased for women (r 2=0.49; P=0.001) across years. The gender difference in overall race time for winners increased from 10% in 1992 to 42% in 2011 (r 2=0.63; P<0.001). The longitudinal analysis of the five women and five men with the highest number of participations showed that performance decreased in one female (r 2=0.45; P=0.01). The four other women as well as all five men showed no change in overall race times across years. Conclusions Participation increased and performance improved for male Triple Iron ultra-triathletes while participation remained unchanged and performance decreased for females between 1988 and 2011. The reasons for the increase of the gap between female and male Triple Iron ultra-triathletes need further investigations. PMID:23012633
Accelerated warming at high elevations: a review of the current evidence and proposals for future research (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.

2013-12-01

Arctic amplification, whereby enhanced warming is evident at high latitudes, is well accepted amongst the scientific community. Increased warming at high elevations is more controversial and is often given the more vague term 'elevational dependency'. The way in which different approaches (mountain surface data, radiosondes, satellite data and models) often yield different results is discussed, along with the differences between these approaches. Analyses of surface data differ in the stations chosen for comparison, the time period, elevational range, and methods of trend identification. An analysis of global datasets using over a thousand stations (GHCN, CRU) and defining change by the most common method of calculating the linear gradient of a best fit line (linear regression) shows no simple relationship between warming rate and elevation. There are however feedback mechanisms in the mountain environment (e.g. cryospheric change, water vapor and treelines) which, although they may enhance warming at certain elevations, are fairly poorly understood. Warming rates are also shown to be influenced by factors in the mountain environment other than elevation, including topography (aspect, slope, topographic exposure) as well as mean annual temperature, but the relative influences of such controls have yet to be disentangled from those that show a more simple elevationally-dependent signal. Mountain summits and exposed ridge sites are shown to show least variability in warming rates, rising up above a sea of noise. Radiosondes and satellite data are further removed from changes on the ground (surface temperatures) and studies using such data tend to be rather divorced from the mountain environment and need calibration/comparison with surface datasets. Reanalyses such as NCEP/NCAR and ERA, although having good spatial coverage, tend to suffer from the same problems. Following a discussion of differences between all these approaches, a plan to develop an integrated global approach to this issue will be discussed.
Consensus Algorithms for Networks of Systems with Second- and Higher-Order Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fruhnert, Michael

This thesis considers homogeneous networks of linear systems. We consider linear feedback controllers and require that the directed graph associated with the network contains a spanning tree and systems are stabilizable. We show that, in continuous-time, consensus with a guaranteed rate of convergence can always be achieved using linear state feedback. For networks of continuous-time second-order systems, we provide a new and simple derivation of the conditions for a second-order polynomials with complex coefficients to be Hurwitz. We apply this result to obtain necessary and sufficient conditions to achieve consensus with networks whose graph Laplacian matrix may have complex eigenvalues. Based on the conditions found, methods to compute feedback gains are proposed. We show that gains can be chosen such that consensus is achieved robustly over a variety of communication structures and system dynamics. We also consider the use of static output feedback. For networks of discrete-time second-order systems, we provide a new and simple derivation of the conditions for a second-order polynomials with complex coefficients to be Schur. We apply this result to obtain necessary and sufficient conditions to achieve consensus with networks whose graph Laplacian matrix may have complex eigenvalues. We show that consensus can always be achieved for marginally stable systems and discretized systems. Simple conditions for consensus achieving controllers are obtained when the Laplacian eigenvalues are all real. For networks of continuous-time time-variant higher-order systems, we show that uniform consensus can always be achieved if systems are quadratically stabilizable. In this case, we provide a simple condition to obtain a linear feedback control. For networks of discrete-time higher-order systems, we show that constant gains can be chosen such that consensus is achieved for a variety of network topologies. First, we develop simple results for networks of time-invariant systems and networks of time-variant systems that are given in controllable canonical form. Second, we formulate the problem in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). The condition found simplifies the design process and avoids the parallel solution of multiple LMIs. The result yields a modified Algebraic Riccati Equation (ARE) for which we present an equivalent LMI condition.
Algorithmic Trading with Developmental and Linear Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Garnett; Banzhaf, Wolfgang

A developmental co-evolutionary genetic programming approach (PAM DGP) and a standard linear genetic programming (LGP) stock trading systemare applied to a number of stocks across market sectors. Both GP techniques were found to be robust to market fluctuations and reactive to opportunities associated with stock price rise and fall, with PAMDGP generating notably greater profit in some stock trend scenarios. Both algorithms were very accurate at buying to achieve profit and selling to protect assets, while exhibiting bothmoderate trading activity and the ability to maximize or minimize investment as appropriate. The content of the trading rules produced by both algorithms are also examined in relation to stock price trend scenarios.
Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Linear Legendrian curves in T(3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiggini, Paolo

2006-05-01

Using convex surfaces and Kanda's classification theorem, we classify Legendrian isotopy classes of Legendrian linear curves in all tight contact structures on T(3) . Some of the knot types considered in this paper provide new examples of non transversally simple knot types.
Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.
Analysis of trend changes in Northern African palaeo-climate by using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütz, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2010-05-01

Climate variability of Northern Africa is of high interest due to climate-evolutionary linkages under study. The reconstruction of the palaeo-climate over long time scales, including the expected linkages (> 3 Ma), is mainly accessible by proxy data from deep sea drilling cores. By concentrating on published data sets, we try to decipher rhythms and trends to detect correlations between different proxy time series by advanced mathematical methods. Our preliminary data is dust concentration, as an indicator for climatic changes such as humidity, from the ODP sites 659, 721 and 967 situated around Northern Africa. Our interest is in challenging the available time series with advanced statistical methods to detect significant trend changes and to compare different model assumptions. For that purpose, we want to avoid the rescaling of the time axis to obtain equidistant time steps for filtering methods. Additionally we demand an plausible description of the errors for the estimated parameters, in terms of confidence intervals. Finally, depending on what model we restrict on, we also want an insight in the parameter structure of the assumed models. To gain this information, we focus on Bayesian inference by formulating the problem as a linear mixed model, so that the expectation and deviation are of linear structure. By using the Bayesian method we can formulate the posteriori density as a function of the model parameters and calculate this probability density in the parameter space. Depending which parameters are of interest, we analytically and numerically marginalize the posteriori with respect to the remaining parameters of less interest. We apply a simple linear mixed model to calculate the posteriori densities of the ODP sites 659 and 721 concerning the last 5 Ma at maximum. From preliminary calculations on these data sets, we can confirm results gained by the method of breakfit regression combined with block bootstrapping ([1]). We obtain a significant change point around (1.63 - 1.82) Ma, which correlates with a global climate transition due to the establishment of the Walker circulation ([2]). Furthermore we detect another significant change point around (2.7 - 3.2) Ma, which correlates with the end of the Pliocene warm period (permanent El Niño-like conditions) and the onset of a colder global climate ([3], [4]). The discussion on the algorithm, the results of calculated confidence intervals, the available information about the applied model in the parameter space and the comparison of multiple change point models will be presented. [1] Trauth, M.H., et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 2009 [2] Wara, M.W., et al., Science, Vol. 309, 2005 [3] Chiang, J.C.H., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 37, 2009 [4] deMenocal, P., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 220, 2004
Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)
Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.
Mapping and spatial-temporal modeling of Bromus tectorum invasion in central Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Zhenyu

Cheatgrass, or Downy Brome, is an exotic winter annual weed native to the Mediterranean region. Since its introduction to the U.S., it has become a significant weed and aggressive invader of sagebrush, pinion-juniper, and other shrub communities, where it can completely out-compete native grasses and shrubs. In this research, remotely sensed data combined with field collected data are used to investigate the distribution of the cheatgrass in Central Utah, to characterize the trend of the NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, and to construct a spatially explicit population-based model to simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the cheatgrass. This research proposes a method for mapping the canopy closure of invasive species using remotely sensed data acquired at different dates. Different invasive species have their own distinguished phenologies and the satellite images in different dates could be used to capture the phenology. The results of cheatgrass abundance prediction have a good fit with the field data for both linear regression and regression tree models, although the regression tree model has better performance than the linear regression model. To characterize the trend of NDVI time-series of cheatgrass, a novel smoothing algorithm named RMMEH is presented in this research to overcome some drawbacks of many other algorithms. By comparing the performance of RMMEH in smoothing a 16-day composite of the MODIS NDVI time-series with that of two other methods, which are the 4253EH, twice and the MVI, we have found that RMMEH not only keeps the original valid NDVI points, but also effectively removes the spurious spikes. The reconstructed NDVI time-series of different land covers are of higher quality and have smoother temporal trend. To simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass, a spatially explicit population-based model is built applying remotely sensed data. The comparison between the model output and the ground truth of cheatgrass closure demonstrates that the model could successfully simulate the spatial-temporal dynamics of cheatgrass in a simple cheatgrass-dominant environment. The simulation of the functional response of different prescribed fire rates also shows that this model is helpful to answer management questions like, "What are the effects of prescribed fire to invasive species?" It demonstrates that a medium fire rate of 10% can successfully prevent cheatgrass invasion.
Investigating the linearity assumption between lumber grade mix and yield using design of experiments (DOE)

Treesearch

Xiaoqiu Zuo; Urs Buehlmann; R. Edward Thomas

2004-01-01

Solving the least-cost lumber grade mix problem allows dimension mills to minimize the cost of dimension part production. This problem, due to its economic importance, has attracted much attention from researchers and industry in the past. Most solutions used linear programming models and assumed that a simple linear relationship existed between lumber grade mix and...
A neural network approach to job-shop scheduling.

PubMed

Zhou, D N; Cherkassky, V; Baldwin, T R; Olson, D E

1991-01-01

A novel analog computational network is presented for solving NP-complete constraint satisfaction problems, i.e. job-shop scheduling. In contrast to most neural approaches to combinatorial optimization based on quadratic energy cost function, the authors propose to use linear cost functions. As a result, the network complexity (number of neurons and the number of resistive interconnections) grows only linearly with problem size, and large-scale implementations become possible. The proposed approach is related to the linear programming network described by D.W. Tank and J.J. Hopfield (1985), which also uses a linear cost function for a simple optimization problem. It is shown how to map a difficult constraint-satisfaction problem onto a simple neural net in which the number of neural processors equals the number of subjobs (operations) and the number of interconnections grows linearly with the total number of operations. Simulations show that the authors' approach produces better solutions than existing neural approaches to job-shop scheduling, i.e. the traveling salesman problem-type Hopfield approach and integer linear programming approach of J.P.S. Foo and Y. Takefuji (1988), in terms of the quality of the solution and the network complexity.
Major Crustal Fault Zone Trends and Their Relation to Mineral Belts in the North-Central Great Basin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sampson, Jay A.; Williams, Jackie M.

2007-01-01

The Great Basin physiographic province covers a large part of the western United States and contains one of the world's leading gold-producing areas, the Carlin Trend. In the Great Basin, many sedimentary-rock-hosted disseminated gold deposits occur along such linear mineral-occurrence trends. The distribution and genesis of these deposits is not fully understood, but most models indicate that regional tectonic structures play an important role in their spatial distribution. Over 100 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings were acquired between 1994 and 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate crustal structures that may underlie the linear trends in north-central Nevada. MT sounding data were used to map changes in electrical resistivity as a function of depth that are related to subsurface lithologic and structural variations. Two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity modeling of the MT data reveals primarily northerly and northeasterly trending narrow 2-D conductors (1 to 30 ohm-m) extending to mid-crustal depths (5-20 km) that are interpreted to be major crustal fault zones. There are also a few westerly and northwesterly trending 2-D conductors. However, the great majority of the inferred crustal fault zones mapped using MT are perpendicular or oblique to the generally accepted trends. The correlation of strike of three crustal fault zones with the strike of the Carlin and Getchell trends and the Alligator Ridge district suggests they may have been the root fluid flow pathways that fed faults and fracture networks at shallower levels where gold precipitated in favorable host rocks. The abundant northeasterly crustal structures that do not correlate with the major trends may be structures that are open to fluid flow at the present time.
Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).
Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).
Parameter selection with the Hotelling observer in linear iterative image reconstruction for breast tomosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Sean D.; Roth, Jacob; Zimmerman, Cole; Reiser, Ingrid; Sidky, Emil Y.; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-03-01

In this work we investigate an efficient implementation of a region-of-interest (ROI) based Hotelling observer (HO) in the context of parameter optimization for detection of a rod signal at two orientations in linear iterative image reconstruction for DBT. Our preliminary results suggest that ROI-HO performance trends may be efficiently estimated by modeling only the 2D plane perpendicular to the detector and containing the X-ray source trajectory. In addition, the ROI-HO is seen to exhibit orientation dependent trends in detectability as a function of the regularization strength employed in reconstruction. To further investigate the ROI-HO performance in larger 3D system models, we present and validate an iterative methodology for calculating the ROI-HO. Lastly, we present a real data study investigating the correspondence between ROI-HO performance trends and signal conspicuity. Conspicuity of signals in real data reconstructions is seen to track well with trends in ROI-HO detectability. In particular, we observe orientation dependent conspicuity matching the orientation dependent detectability of the ROI-HO.
Linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating response to thermal gradient: from bench tests to the real-time assessment during in vivo laser ablations of biological tissue.

PubMed

Saccomandi, Paola; Varalda, Ambra; Gassino, Riccardo; Tosi, Daniele; Massaroni, Carlo; Caponero, Michele A; Pop, Raoul; Korganbayev, Sanzhar; Perrone, Guido; Diana, Michele; Vallan, Alberto; Costamagna, Guido; Marescaux, Jacques; Schena, Emiliano

2017-09-01

The response of a fiber optic sensor [linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating (LCFBG)] to a linear thermal gradient applied on its sensing length (i.e., 1.5 cm) has been investigated. After these bench tests, we assessed their feasibility for temperature monitoring during thermal tumor treatment. In particular, we performed experiments during ex vivo laser ablation (LA) in pig liver and in vivo thermal ablation in animal models (pigs). We investigated the following: (i) the relationship between the full width at half maximum of the LCFBG spectrum and the temperature difference among the extremities of the LCFBG and (ii) the relationship between the mean spectrum wavelength and the mean temperature acting on the LCFBG sensing area. These relationships showed a linear trend during both bench tests and LA in animal models. Thermal sensitivity was significant although different values were found with regards to bench tests and animal experiments. The linear trend and significant sensitivity allow hypothesizing a future use of this kind of sensor to monitor both temperature gradient and mean temperature within a tissue undergoing thermal treatment. (2017) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).
Structural and lithologic study of northern California Coast Range and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator); Steele, W. C.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photgeologic examination of repetitive multispectral ERTS-1 imagery of Northern California has disclosed several systems of linear features which may be important for the interpretation of the structural history of California. They are separated from an orthogonal system of linears in the Klamath Mts. by a set of discontinuous southeast-trending linear features (the Mendocino system) which is traceable from the Pacific Coast, at Cape Mendocino, into the eastern foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Within the Sierra Nevada, the Mendocino system separates the north-trending Sierran system from a set of linears characteristic of the Modoc Plateau. With minor exception, little overlap exists among the systems which suggests a decipherable chronology and evolutionary history for the region. The San Andres system of linears appears to truncate or co-exist with most of the other systems in the northern Coast Ranges. The Mendocino system truncates the Klamath, Sierran, and Modoc systems. The Sierran system may represent fundamental and long-persisting pre-late Paleozoic zones of crustal weakness which have been reactivated from time to time. The Mendocino system was possibly developed in early Mesozoic and is important to the structural framework of Northern California.
Improving Students’ Science Process Skills through Simple Computer Simulations on Linear Motion Conceptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siahaan, P.; Suryani, A.; Kaniawati, I.; Suhendi, E.; Samsudin, A.

2017-02-01

The purpose of this research is to identify the development of students’ science process skills (SPS) on linear motion concept by utilizing simple computer simulation. In order to simplify the learning process, the concept is able to be divided into three sub-concepts: 1) the definition of motion, 2) the uniform linear motion and 3) the uniformly accelerated motion. This research was administered via pre-experimental method with one group pretest-posttest design. The respondents which were involved in this research were 23 students of seventh grade in one of junior high schools in Bandung City. The improving process of students’ science process skill is examined based on normalized gain analysis from pretest and posttest scores for all sub-concepts. The result of this research shows that students’ science process skills are dramatically improved by 47% (moderate) on observation skill; 43% (moderate) on summarizing skill, 70% (high) on prediction skill, 44% (moderate) on communication skill and 49% (moderate) on classification skill. These results clarify that the utilizing simple computer simulations in physics learning is be able to improve overall science skills at moderate level.
Direct localization of poles of a meromorphic function from measurements on an incomplete boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nara, Takaaki; Ando, Shigeru

2010-01-01

This paper proposes an algebraic method to reconstruct the positions of multiple poles in a meromorphic function field from measurements on an arbitrary simple arc in it. A novel issue is the exactness of the algorithm depending on whether the arc is open or closed, and whether it encloses or does not enclose the poles. We first obtain a differential equation that can equivalently determine the meromorphic function field. From it, we derive linear equations that relate the elementary symmetric polynomials of the pole positions to weighted integrals of the field along the simple arc and end-point terms of the arc when it is an open one. Eliminating the end-point terms based on an appropriate choice of weighting functions and a combination of the linear equations, we obtain a simple system of linear equations for solving the elementary symmetric polynomials. We also show that our algorithm can be applied to a 2D electric impedance tomography problem. The effects of the proximity of the poles, the number of measurements and noise on the localization accuracy are numerically examined.
A Simple Attitude Control of Quadrotor Helicopter Based on Ziegler-Nichols Rules for Tuning PD Parameters

PubMed Central

He, ZeFang

2014-01-01

An attitude control strategy based on Ziegler-Nichols rules for tuning PD (proportional-derivative) parameters of quadrotor helicopters is presented to solve the problem that quadrotor tends to be instable. This problem is caused by the narrow definition domain of attitude angles of quadrotor helicopters. The proposed controller is nonlinear and consists of a linear part and a nonlinear part. The linear part is a PD controller with PD parameters tuned by Ziegler-Nichols rules and acts on the quadrotor decoupled linear system after feedback linearization; the nonlinear part is a feedback linearization item which converts a nonlinear system into a linear system. It can be seen from the simulation results that the attitude controller proposed in this paper is highly robust, and its control effect is better than the other two nonlinear controllers. The nonlinear parts of the other two nonlinear controllers are the same as the attitude controller proposed in this paper. The linear part involves a PID (proportional-integral-derivative) controller with the PID controller parameters tuned by Ziegler-Nichols rules and a PD controller with the PD controller parameters tuned by GA (genetic algorithms). Moreover, this attitude controller is simple and easy to implement. PMID:25614879
A new formulation for anisotropic radiative transfer problems. I - Solution with a variational technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheyney, H., III; Arking, A.

1976-01-01

The equations of radiative transfer in anisotropically scattering media are reformulated as linear operator equations in a single independent variable. The resulting equations are suitable for solution by a variety of standard mathematical techniques. The operators appearing in the resulting equations are in general nonsymmetric; however, it is shown that every bounded linear operator equation can be embedded in a symmetric linear operator equation and a variational solution can be obtained in a straightforward way. For purposes of demonstration, a Rayleigh-Ritz variational method is applied to three problems involving simple phase functions. It is to be noted that the variational technique demonstrated is of general applicability and permits simple solutions for a wide range of otherwise difficult mathematical problems in physics.
Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.
Trends in age verification among U.S. adolescents attempting to buy cigarettes at retail stores, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Agaku, Israel T; Connolly, Gregory N; Vardavas, Constantine I

2014-04-01

This study assessed trends in age verification prior to cigarette sales to U.S. middle and high school students, and refusal to sell cigarettes to students aged <18 years during 2000-2009. Data were obtained from the 2000-2009 National Youth Tobacco Survey. Trends during 2000-2009 were assessed using binary logistic regression (p<0.05). The proportion of all students, who reported being asked to show proof of age prior to a cigarette purchase in the past 30 days did not change significantly between 2000 (46.9%) and 2009 (44.9%) (p=0.529 for linear trend). No significant trend in the proportion of students aged < 18 years who were refused a sale when attempting to buy cigarettes was observed between 2000 (39.8%) and 2009 (36.7%) (p=0.283 for linear trend). Refusal of a cigarette sale was significantly higher among under-aged boys compared to girls (adjusted odds ratio=1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-1.70). About half of U.S. middle and high school students who reported making a cigarette purchase were not asked for proof of age, and about three of five under-aged buyers successfully made a cigarette purchase in 2009. Intensified implementation and enforcement of policies requiring age verification among youths is warranted to reduce access and use of tobacco products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.
When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

2010-01-01

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...
Atomistic Structure and Dynamics of the Solvation Shell Formed by Organic Carbonates around Lithium Ions via Infrared Spectroscopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Daniel; Fufler, Kristen

Lithium-ion batteries have become ubiquitous to the portable energy storage industry, but efficiency issues still remain. Currently, most technological and scientific efforts are focused on the electrodes with little attention on the electrolyte. For example, simple fundamental questions about the lithium ion solvation shell composition in commercially used electrolytes have not been answered. Using a combination of linear and non-linear IR spectroscopies and theoretical calculations, we have carried out a thorough investigation of the solvation structure and dynamics of the lithium ion in various linear and cyclic carbonates at common battery electrolyte concentrations. Our studies show that carbonates coordinate the lithium ion tetrahedrally. They also reveal that linear and cyclic carbonates have contrasting dynamics in which cyclic carbonates present the most ordered structure. Finally, our experiments demonstrate that simple structural modifications in the linear carbonates impact significantly the microscopic interactions of the system. The stark differences in the solvation structure and dynamics among different carbonates reveal previously unknown details about the molecular level picture of these systems.
Climate change at upper treeline: How do trees on the edge react to increasing temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-04-01

Treeline ecotones are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate warming, and an alteration of their growth conditions may have important implications for the ecosystem services they supply in mountain regions. We use a novel approach to quantify effects of a changing climate on tree growth, using case studies in the European Alps. We compiled tree-ring data from almost 600 trees of four species at treeline in three climate regions of Switzerland. Temperature loggers installed along transects provided data for a precise interpolation of temperatures experienced by the sampled trees. To assess the influence of temperature on annual growth, we used linear mixed-effects models, allowing us to quantify effect sizes and to account for between-tree growth variability. After removing biological growth trends, we isolated temporal trends of ring-width indices. Furthermore, we fitted non-linear regression models to radial growth rates of individual years with temperature and tree age as predicting covariates for a fine-scale investigation of the temperature dependency of tree growth. For all species, climate-growth linear mixed-effects models indicated strong positive responses of ring-width indices to temperature in early summer and previous year's autumn, featuring considerable between-tree variability. All species showed positive ring-width index trends at treeline but different interactions with elevation: Larix decidua exhibited a declining ring-width index trend with decreasing elevation, whereas Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Pinus mugo showed increasing and/or stable trends. Not only reflected our findings the effects of ameliorated growth conditions, they might have also revealed suspected negative and positive feedbacks of climate change on growth, and increased the knowledge about the functional form and parameterization of the temperature dependency of tree growth.
The increase in symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood among Icelandic adolescents: time trend between 2006 and 2016.

PubMed

Thorisdottir, Ingibjorg E; Asgeirsdottir, Bryndis B; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Allegrante, John P; Sigfusdottir, Inga D

2017-10-01

Both research and popular media reports suggest that adolescent mental health has been deteriorating across societies with advanced economies. This study sought to describe the trends in self-reported symptoms of depressed mood and anxiety among Icelandic adolescents. Data for this study come from repeated, cross-sectional, population-based school surveys of 43 482 Icelandic adolescents in 9th and 10th grade, with six waves of pooled data from 2006 to 2016. We used analysis of variance, linear regression and binomial logistic regression to examine trends in symptom scores of anxiety and depressed mood over time. Gender differences in trends of high symptoms were also tested for interactions. Linear regression analysis showed a significant linear increase over the course of the study period in mean symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood for girls only; however, symptoms of anxiety among boys decreased. The proportion of adolescents reporting high depressive symptoms increased by 1.6% for boys and 6.8% for girls; the proportion of those reporting high anxiety symptoms increased by 1.3% for boys and 8.6% for girls. Over the study period, the odds for reporting high depressive symptoms and high anxiety symptoms were significantly higher for both genders. Girls were more likely to report high symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood than boys. Self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depressed mood have increased over time among Icelandic adolescents. Our findings suggest that future research needs to look beyond mean changes and examine the trends among those adolescents who report high symptoms of emotional distress. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.
Trends in bullying victimization by gender among U.S. high school students.

PubMed

Pontes, Nancy M H; Ayres, Cynthia G; Lewandowski, Carla; Pontes, Manuel C F

2018-06-01

This research used four consecutive waves of data from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), to estimate linear time trends by gender in the prevalence of school and electronic bullying victimization among U.S. high school students (N = 61,042). Dependent variables were student self-reported school bullying victimization and electronic bullying victimization during the previous 12 months. Independent variables used to estimate multiple logistic regression models by gender were survey year, race/ethnicity, and grade level. Results showed the prevalence of school bullying increased significantly among females from 2009 (21.2%) to 2015 (24.8%), linear trend OR = 1.08 [1.04, 1.12]; and decreased significantly among males from 2009 (18.7%) to 2015 (15.8%), linear trend OR = 0.93 [0.89, 0.98]. Prevalence of electronic bullying was unchanged between 2011 to 2015 among both male and female students. Asian race, relative to White race, was associated with significantly lower rates of both school and electronic bullying victimization among females, but not males. The incidence of school and electronic bullying victimization was significantly lower among Black and Hispanic students, but not among multiple-race students, regardless of student gender. Healthy People 2020 set a goal to reduce school bullying victimization 10% by 2019. As of 2015, school bullying victimization decreased significantly among males (16% decrease); it significantly increased among females (17% increase). Future research should explore underlying factors related to these divergent trends, and develop effective strategies to reverse the alarming rise in female school bullying victimization. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Simple scale interpolator facilitates reading of graphs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fazio, A.; Henry, B.; Hood, D.

1966-01-01

Set of cards with scale divisions and a scale finder permits accurate reading of the coordinates of points on linear or logarithmic graphs plotted on rectangular grids. The set contains 34 different scales for linear plotting and 28 single cycle scales for log plots.
Time-series analysis of delta13C from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation.

PubMed

Monserud, R A; Marshall, J D

2001-09-01

Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C); discrimination (delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO(2) concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance, thus ensuring stationarity, a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R(2) = 0.29-0.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation, whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation beforehand. Significant ARMA models were all of low order, with either first- or second-order (i.e., lagged 1 or 2 years, respectively) models performing well. A simple autoregressive (AR(1)), model was the most common. The most useful generalization was that the same ARMA model holds for each of the three series (delta(13)C, delta, c(a) - c(i)) for an individual tree, if the time trend has been properly removed for each series. The mean series for the two pine species were described by first-order ARMA models (1-year lags), whereas the Douglas-fir mean series were described by second-order models (2-year lags) with negligible first-order effects. Apparently, the process of constructing a mean time series for a species preserves an underlying signal related to delta(13)C while canceling some of the random individual tree variation. Furthermore, the best model for the overall mean series (e.g., for a species) cannot be inferred from a consensus of the individual tree model forms, nor can its parameters be estimated reliably from the mean of the individual tree parameters. Because two-thirds of the individual tree time series contained significant autocorrelation, the normal assumption of a random structure over time is unwarranted, even after accounting for the time trend. The residuals of an appropriate ARMA model satisfy the independence assumption, and can be used to make hypothesis tests.
Solar activity indices as a proxy for the variation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) over Bahir Dar, Ethiopia during the year 2010-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassa, Tsegaye; Tilahun, Samson; Damtie, Baylie

2017-09-01

This paper was aimed at investigating the solar variations of vTEC as a function of solar activity parameters, EUV and F10.7 radio flux. The daily values of ionospheric vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) were observed using a dual frequency GPS receiver deployed at Bahir Dar (11.6°N and 37.36°E), Ethiopia. Measurements were taken during the period of 2010-2014 for successive five years and analysis was done on only quiet day observations. A quadratic fit was used as a model to describe the daily variation of vTEC in relation to solar parameters. Linear and non-linear coefficients of the vTEC variations were calculated in order to capture the trend of the variation. The variation of vTEC have showed good agreement with the trend of solar parameters in almost all of the days we consider during the period of our observations. We have explicitly observed days with insignificant TECU deviation (eg. modeling with respect to EUV, DOY = 49 in 2010 and modeling with respect to F10.7, DOY = 125 in 2012 and the like) and days with maximum deviation (about 50 TECU). A maximum deviation were observed, on average, during months of equinox whereas minimum during solstice months. This implies that there is a need to consider more parameters, including EUV and F10.7, that can affect the variation of vTEC during equinox seasons. Relatively, small deviations was observed in modeling vTEC as a function of EUV compared to that of the variation due to F10.7 cm flux. This may also tell us that EUV can be more suitable in modeling the solar variation of vTEC especially for longterm trends. Even though, the linear trend of solar variations of vTEC was frequently observed, significant saturation and amplification trends of the solar variations of vTEC were also observed to some extent across the months of the years we have analyzed. This mixed trend of the solar variation of vTEC implies the need for thorough investigation on the effect of solar parameters on TEC. However, based on long-term dataset, we came to conclude that the solar variations of vTEC is dominated by its linear pattern.
Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544
A simple model for electrical charge in globular macromolecules and linear polyelectrolytes in solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, M.

2017-05-01

We present a model for calculating the net and effective electrical charge of globular macromolecules and linear polyelectrolytes such as proteins and DNA, given the concentration of monovalent salt and pH in solution. The calculation is based on a numerical solution of the non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation using a finite element discretized continuum approach. The model simultaneously addresses the phenomena of charge regulation and renormalization, both of which underpin the electrostatics of biomolecules in solution. We show that while charge regulation addresses the true electrical charge of a molecule arising from the acid-base equilibria of its ionizable groups, charge renormalization finds relevance in the context of a molecule's interaction with another charged entity. Writing this electrostatic interaction free energy in terms of a local electrical potential, we obtain an "interaction charge" for the molecule which we demonstrate agrees closely with the "effective charge" discussed in charge renormalization and counterion-condensation theories. The predictions of this model agree well with direct high-precision measurements of effective electrical charge of polyelectrolytes such as nucleic acids and disordered proteins in solution, without tunable parameters. Including the effective interior dielectric constant for compactly folded molecules as a tunable parameter, the model captures measurements of effective charge as well as published trends of pKa shifts in globular proteins. Our results suggest a straightforward general framework to model electrostatics in biomolecules in solution. In offering a platform that directly links theory and experiment, these calculations could foster a systematic understanding of the interrelationship between molecular 3D structure and conformation, electrical charge and electrostatic interactions in solution. The model could find particular relevance in situations where molecular crystal structures are not available or rapid, reliable predictions are desired.
Simple stochastic order-book model of swarm behavior in continuous double auction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiki, Shingo; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

2015-02-01

In this study, we present a simple stochastic order-book model for investors' swarm behaviors seen in the continuous double auction mechanism, which is employed by major global exchanges. Our study shows a characteristic called 'fat tail' seen in the data obtained from our model that incorporates the investors' swarm behaviors. Our model captures two swarm behaviors: one is investors' behavior to follow a trend in the historical price movement, and another is investors' behavior to send orders that contradict a trend in the historical price movement. In order to capture the features of influence by the swarm behaviors, from price data derived from our simulations using these models, we analyzed the price movement range, that is, how much the price is moved when it is continuously moved in a single direction. Depending on the type of swarm behavior, we saw a difference in the cumulative frequency distribution of this price movement range. In particular, for the model of investors who followed a trend in the historical price movement, we saw the power law in the tail of the cumulative frequency distribution of this price movement range. In addition, we analyzed the shape of the tail of the cumulative frequency distribution. The result demonstrated that one of the reasons the trend following of price occurs is that orders temporarily swarm on the order book in accordance with past price trends.
The intra-day dynamics of affect, self-esteem, tiredness, and suicidality in Major Depression.

PubMed

Crowe, Eimear; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Carroll, Susan; Malone, Kevin M

2018-02-21

Despite growing interest in the temporal dynamics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we know little about the intra-day fluctuations of key symptom constructs. In a study of momentary experience, the Experience Sampling Method captured the within-day dynamics of negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, passive suicidality, and tiredness across clinical MDD (N= 31) and healthy control groups (N= 33). Ten symptom measures were taken per day over 6 days (N= 2231 observations). Daily dynamics were modeled via intra-day time-trends, variability, and instability in symptoms. MDD participants showed significantly increased variability and instability in negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, and suicidality. Significantly different time-trends were found in positive affect (increased diurnal variation and an inverted U-shaped pattern in MDD, compared to a positive linear trend in controls) and tiredness (decreased diurnal variation in MDD). In the MDD group only, passive suicidality displayed a negative linear trend and self-esteem displayed a quadratic inverted U trend. MDD and control participants thus showed distinct dynamic profiles in all symptoms measured. As well as the overall severity of symptoms, intra-day dynamics appear to define the experience of MDD symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.
User's manual for interfacing a leading edge, vortex rollup program with two linear panel methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desilva, B. M. E.; Medan, R. T.

1979-01-01

Sufficient instructions are provided for interfacing the Mangler-Smith, leading edge vortex rollup program with a vortex lattice (POTFAN) method and an advanced higher order, singularity linear analysis for computing the vortex effects for simple canard wing combinations.
Continuous Quantitative Measurements on a Linear Air Track

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vogel, Eric

1973-01-01

Describes the construction and operational procedures of a spark-timing apparatus which is designed to record the back and forth motion of one or two carts on linear air tracks. Applications to measurements of velocity, acceleration, simple harmonic motion, and collision problems are illustrated. (CC)
Impact of a New Law to Reduce the Legal Blood Alcohol Concentration Limit - A Poisson Regression Analysis and Descriptive Approach.

PubMed

Nistal-Nuño, Beatriz

2017-03-31

In Chile, a new law introduced in March 2012 lowered the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit for impaired drivers from 0.1% to 0.08% and the BAC limit for driving under the influence of alcohol from 0.05% to 0.03%, but its effectiveness remains uncertain. The goal of this investigation was to evaluate the effects of this enactment on road traffic injuries and fatalities in Chile. A retrospective cohort study. Data were analyzed using a descriptive and a Generalized Linear Models approach, type of Poisson regression, to analyze deaths and injuries in a series of additive Log-Linear Models accounting for the effects of law implementation, month influence, a linear time trend and population exposure. A review of national databases in Chile was conducted from 2003 to 2014 to evaluate the monthly rates of traffic fatalities and injuries associated to alcohol and in total. It was observed a decrease by 28.1 percent in the monthly rate of traffic fatalities related to alcohol as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 20.9 percent (P<0.001).There was a reduction in the monthly rate of traffic injuries related to alcohol by 10.5 percent as compared to before the law (P<0.001). Adding a linear time trend as a predictor, the decrease was by 24.8 percent (P<0.001). Positive results followed from this new 'zero-tolerance' law implemented in 2012 in Chile. Chile experienced a significant reduction in alcohol-related traffic fatalities and injuries, being a successful public health intervention.
Finite Element Based Structural Damage Detection Using Artificial Boundary Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

C. (2005). Elementary Linear Algebra . New York: John Wiley and Sons. Avitable, Peter (2001, January) Experimental Modal Analysis, A Simple Non...variables under consideration. 3 Frequency sensitivities are the basis for a linear approximation to compute the change in the natural frequencies of a...THEORY The general problem statement for a non- linear constrained optimization problem is: To minimize ( )f x Objective Function Subject to
A step-by-step guide to non-linear regression analysis of experimental data using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

PubMed

Brown, A M

2001-06-01

The objective of this present study was to introduce a simple, easily understood method for carrying out non-linear regression analysis based on user input functions. While it is relatively straightforward to fit data with simple functions such as linear or logarithmic functions, fitting data with more complicated non-linear functions is more difficult. Commercial specialist programmes are available that will carry out this analysis, but these programmes are expensive and are not intuitive to learn. An alternative method described here is to use the SOLVER function of the ubiquitous spreadsheet programme Microsoft Excel, which employs an iterative least squares fitting routine to produce the optimal goodness of fit between data and function. The intent of this paper is to lead the reader through an easily understood step-by-step guide to implementing this method, which can be applied to any function in the form y=f(x), and is well suited to fast, reliable analysis of data in all fields of biology.
A study of the limitations of linear theory methods as applied to sonic boom calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Darden, Christine M.

1990-01-01

Current sonic boom minimization theories have been reviewed to emphasize the capabilities and flexibilities of the methods. Flexibility is important because it is necessary for the designer to meet optimized area constraints while reducing the impact on vehicle aerodynamic performance. Preliminary comparisons of sonic booms predicted for two Mach 3 concepts illustrate the benefits of shaping. Finally, for very simple bodies of revolution, sonic boom predictions were made using two methods - a modified linear theory method and a nonlinear method - for signature shapes which were both farfield N-waves and midfield waves. Preliminary analysis on these simple bodies verified that current modified linear theory prediction methods become inadequate for predicting midfield signatures for Mach numbers above 3. The importance of impulse is sonic boom disturbance and the importance of three-dimensional effects which could not be simulated with the bodies of revolution will determine the validity of current modified linear theory methods in predicting midfield signatures at lower Mach numbers.

An Alternative Derivation of the Energy Levels of the "Particle on a Ring" System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Alan

1996-10-01

All acceptable wave functions must be continuous mathematical functions. This criterion limits the acceptable functions for a particle in a linear 1-dimensional box to sine functions. If, however, the linear box is bent round into a ring, acceptable wave functions are those which are continuous at the 'join'. On this model some acceptable linear functions become unacceptable for the ring and some unacceptable cosine functions become acceptable. This approach can be used to produce a straightforward derivation of the energy levels and wave functions of the particle on a ring. These simple wave mechanical systems can be used as models of linear and cyclic delocalised systems such as conjugated hydrocarbons or the benzene ring. The promotion energy of an electron can then be used to calculate the wavelength of absorption of uv light. The simple model gives results of the correct order of magnitude and shows that, as the chain length increases, the uv maximum moves to longer wavelengths, as found experimentally.
Improving Prediction Accuracy for WSN Data Reduction by Applying Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Correlation

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Carlos; Gomes, Danielo G.; Agoulmine, Nazim; de Souza, José Neuman

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a method based on multivariate spatial and temporal correlation to improve prediction accuracy in data reduction for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Prediction of data not sent to the sink node is a technique used to save energy in WSNs by reducing the amount of data traffic. However, it may not be very accurate. Simulations were made involving simple linear regression and multiple linear regression functions to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results show a higher correlation between gathered inputs when compared to time, which is an independent variable widely used for prediction and forecasting. Prediction accuracy is lower when simple linear regression is used, whereas multiple linear regression is the most accurate one. In addition to that, our proposal outperforms some current solutions by about 50% in humidity prediction and 21% in light prediction. To the best of our knowledge, we believe that we are probably the first to address prediction based on multivariate correlation for WSN data reduction. PMID:22346626
Phase properties of elastic waves in systems constituted of adsorbed diatomic molecules on the (001) surface of a simple cubic crystal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deymier, P. A.; Runge, K.

2018-03-01

A Green's function-based numerical method is developed to calculate the phase of scattered elastic waves in a harmonic model of diatomic molecules adsorbed on the (001) surface of a simple cubic crystal. The phase properties of scattered waves depend on the configuration of the molecules. The configurations of adsorbed molecules on the crystal surface such as parallel chain-like arrays coupled via kinks are used to demonstrate not only linear but also non-linear dependency of the phase on the number of kinks along the chains. Non-linear behavior arises for scattered waves with frequencies in the vicinity of a diatomic molecule resonance. In the non-linear regime, the variation in phase with the number of kinks is formulated mathematically as unitary matrix operations leading to an analogy between phase-based elastic unitary operations and quantum gates. The advantage of elastic based unitary operations is that they are easily realizable physically and measurable.
Arginine intake is associated with oxidative stress in a general population.

PubMed

Carvalho, Aline Martins de; Oliveira, Antonio Anax Falcão de; Loureiro, Ana Paula de Melo; Gattás, Gilka Jorge Figaro; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between protein and arginine from meat intake and oxidative stress in a general population. Data came from the Health Survey for Sao Paulo (ISA-Capital), a cross-sectional population-based study in Brazil (N = 549 adults). Food intake was estimated by a 24-h dietary recall. Oxidative stress was estimated by malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in plasma. Analyses were performed using general linear regression models adjusted for some genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders. MDA levels were associated with meat intake (P for linear trend = 0.031), protein from meat (P for linear trend = 0.006), and arginine from meat (P for linear trend = 0.044) after adjustments for confounders: age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, intake of fruit and vegetables, energy and heterocyclic amines, C-reactive protein levels, and polymorphisms in GSTM1 (glutathione S-transferase Mu 1) and GSTT1 (glutathione S-transferase theta 1) genes. Results were not significant for total protein and protein from vegetable intake (P > 0.05). High protein and arginine from meat intake were associated with oxidative stress independently of genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders in a population-based study. Our results suggested a novel link between high protein/arginine intake and oxidative stress, which is a major cause of age-related diseases. Copyright Â© 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Spectral variability of plagioclase-mafic mixtures (3): Quantitative analysis applying the MGM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serventi, Giovanna; Carli, Cristian; Sgavetti, Maria

2015-07-01

Among the techniques to detect planet's mineralogical composition remote sensing, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectroscopy is a powerful tool, because crystal field absorption bands are related to particular transitional metals in well-defined crystal structures, e.g., Fe2+ in M1 and M2 sites of olivine (OL) or pyroxene (PX). Although OL, PX and their mixtures have been widely studied, plagioclase (PL), considered a spectroscopically transparent mineral, has been poorly analyzed. In this work we quantitatively investigate the influence of plagioclase absorption band on the absorption bands of Fe, Mg minerals using the Modified Gaussian Model - MGM (Sunshine, J.M. et al. [1990]. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966). We consider three plagioclase compositions of varying FeO wt.% contents and five mafic end-members (1) 56% orthopyroxene and 44% clinopyroxene, (2) 28% olivine and 72% orthopyroxene, (3) 30% orthopyroxene and 70% olivine, (4) 100% olivine and (5) 100% orthopyroxene, at two different particle sizes. The spectral parameters considered here are: band depth, band center, band width, c0 (the continuum intercept) and c1 (the continuum offset). In particular, we show the variation of the plagioclase and composite (plagioclase-olivine) band spectral parameters versus the volumetric iron content related to the plagioclase abundance in mixtures. Generally, increasing the vol. FeO% due to the PL: (1) 1250 nm band deepens with linear trend in mixtures with pyroxenes, while it decreases in mixtures with olivine, with trend shifting from parabolic to linear increasing the olivine content in end-member; (2) 1250 nm band center moves towards longer wavelengths with linear trend in pyroxene-rich mixtures and parabolic trend in olivine-rich mixtures; and (3) 1250 nm band clearly widens with linear trend in olivine-free mixtures, while the widening is only slight in olivine-rich mixtures. We also outline how spectral parameters can be ambiguous leading to an incorrect mineralogical interpretation. Furthermore, we show the presence of an asymmetry of the plagioclase band towards the IR region, resolvable adding a Gaussian in the 1600-1800 nm spectral region.
A Practical Model for Forecasting New Freshman Enrollment during the Application Period.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paulsen, Michael B.

1989-01-01

A simple and effective model for forecasting freshman enrollment during the application period is presented step by step. The model requires minimal and readily available information, uses a simple linear regression analysis on a personal computer, and provides updated monthly forecasts. (MSE)
Trends in Firearm Suicide among Older American Males: 1979-1988.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Mark S.; And Others

1994-01-01

Used National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality data to perform age-specific analysis of linear trends in suicide. Found males aged 65+ years were most likely to use firearms. In 1988, nearly 80% of suicides by older males were committed with firearms. Firearm-related suicide rates were much lower for blacks than whites 65 and…
Air Pollution and urban climatology at Norfolk, Virginia

Treesearch

W. Maurice Pritchard; Kuldip P. Chopra

1977-01-01

The atmosphere at Norfolk is usually stable, with no strongly prevailing wind direction. Linear regression analyses of visibility data indicate a generally decreasing visibility trend between 1960 and 1972, with a possible trend reversal in later years. A 44 percent increase in the annual frequency of 0-4-mile visibility occurred in 1960-72. Similar analyses of...
Obesity, High-Calorie Food Intake, and Academic Achievement Trends among U.S. School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Jian; O'Connell, Ann A.

2012-01-01

The authors investigated children's self-reported high-calorie food intake in Grade 5 and its relationship to trends in obesity status and academic achievement over the first 6 years of school. They used 3-level hierarchical linear models in the large-scale database (the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study--Kindergarten Cohort). Findings indicated…
21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.
A simple recipe for setting up the flux equations of cyclic and linear reaction schemes of ion transport with a high number of states: The arrow scheme.

PubMed

Hansen, Ulf-Peter; Rauh, Oliver; Schroeder, Indra

2016-01-01

The calculation of flux equations or current-voltage relationships in reaction kinetic models with a high number of states can be very cumbersome. Here, a recipe based on an arrow scheme is presented, which yields a straightforward access to the minimum form of the flux equations and the occupation probability of the involved states in cyclic and linear reaction schemes. This is extremely simple for cyclic schemes without branches. If branches are involved, the effort of setting up the equations is a little bit higher. However, also here a straightforward recipe making use of so-called reserve factors is provided for implementing the branches into the cyclic scheme, thus enabling also a simple treatment of such cases.
A simple recipe for setting up the flux equations of cyclic and linear reaction schemes of ion transport with a high number of states: The arrow scheme

PubMed Central

Hansen, Ulf-Peter; Rauh, Oliver; Schroeder, Indra

2016-01-01

abstract The calculation of flux equations or current-voltage relationships in reaction kinetic models with a high number of states can be very cumbersome. Here, a recipe based on an arrow scheme is presented, which yields a straightforward access to the minimum form of the flux equations and the occupation probability of the involved states in cyclic and linear reaction schemes. This is extremely simple for cyclic schemes without branches. If branches are involved, the effort of setting up the equations is a little bit higher. However, also here a straightforward recipe making use of so-called reserve factors is provided for implementing the branches into the cyclic scheme, thus enabling also a simple treatment of such cases. PMID:26646356
Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.
A simple theory of motor protein kinetics and energetics. II.

PubMed

Qian, H

2000-01-10

A three-state stochastic model of motor protein [Qian, Biophys. Chem. 67 (1997) pp. 263-267] is further developed to illustrate the relationship between the external load on an individual motor protein in aqueous solution with various ATP concentrations and its steady-state velocity. A wide variety of dynamic motor behavior are obtained from this simple model. For the particular case of free-load translocation being the most unfavorable step within the hydrolysis cycle, the load-velocity curve is quasi-linear, V/Vmax = (cF/Fmax-c)/(1-c), in contrast to the hyperbolic relationship proposed by A.V. Hill for macroscopic muscle. Significant deviation from the linearity is expected when the velocity is less than 10% of its maximal (free-load) value--a situation under which the processivity of motor diminishes and experimental observations are less certain. We then investigate the dependence of load-velocity curve on ATP (ADP) concentration. It is shown that the free load Vmax exhibits a Michaelis-Menten like behavior, and the isometric Fmax increases linearly with ln([ATP]/[ADP]). However, the quasi-linear region is independent of the ATP concentration, yielding an apparently ATP-independent maximal force below the true isometric force. Finally, the heat production as a function of ATP concentration and external load are calculated. In simple terms and solved with elementary algebra, the present model provides an integrated picture of biochemical kinetics and mechanical energetics of motor proteins.
U-Th-Pb systematics of selected samples from Apollo 17, Boulder 1, Station 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nunes, P.D.; Tatsumoto, M.

1975-01-01

Nine U-Th-Pb whole-rock analyses of selected brecciated materials from sample 72215 and one analysis of a pigeonite basalt clast from 72275 are presented. Both samples are from Boulder 1, Apollo 17. These data supplement previous Boulder 1 U-Th-Pb analyses of samples 72275 and 72255. U and Th concentrations indicate that most of the samples contain a moderate to large KREEP component. Samples containing the least KREEP are a noritic clast (72255,49; Civet Cat clast) and an anorthositic clast (72275,117). Evidence for the migration of Pb from Pb-rich matrix material into relatively Pb-poor clasts is presented for two clasts. Most of the Boulder 1 data define a linear trend that intersects concordia at ??? 3.9 and 4.4 b.y. when plotted on a U-Pb concordia diagram. The presence of one anorthositic clast distinctly off this trend indicates that a simple two-stage U-Pb evolution history is inadequate to explain all the data. Accordingly physical significance is only attached to the lower concordia intercept age of 3.9-4.0 b.y. The older concordia intercept age of ??? 4.4 b.y. is interpreted to reflect an averaging of events both older and younger than 4.4 b.y. The data suggest that significant differentiation and/or metamorphism occurred ??? 4.2 b.y. ago. The age of this event, however, is not accurately defined by these data. ?? 1975 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht-Holland.
Multi-site evaluation of IKONOS data for classification of tropical coral reef environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrefouet, S.; Kramer, Philip; Torres-Pulliza, D.; Joyce, K.E.; Hochberg, E.J.; Garza-Perez, R.; Mumby, P.J.; Riegl, Bernhard; Yamano, H.; White, W.H.; Zubia, M.; Brock, J.C.; Phinn, S.R.; Naseer, A.; Hatcher, B.G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

2003-01-01

Ten IKONOS images of different coral reef sites distributed around the world were processed to assess the potential of 4-m resolution multispectral data for coral reef habitat mapping. Complexity of reef environments, established by field observation, ranged from 3 to 15 classes of benthic habitats containing various combinations of sediments, carbonate pavement, seagrass, algae, and corals in different geomorphologic zones (forereef, lagoon, patch reef, reef flats). Processing included corrections for sea surface roughness and bathymetry, unsupervised or supervised classification, and accuracy assessment based on ground-truth data. IKONOS classification results were compared with classified Landsat 7 imagery for simple to moderate complexity of reef habitats (5-11 classes). For both sensors, overall accuracies of the classifications show a general linear trend of decreasing accuracy with increasing habitat complexity. The IKONOS sensor performed better, with a 15-20% improvement in accuracy compared to Landsat. For IKONOS, overall accuracy was 77% for 4-5 classes, 71% for 7-8 classes, 65% in 9-11 classes, and 53% for more than 13 classes. The Landsat classification accuracy was systematically lower, with an average of 56% for 5-10 classes. Within this general trend, inter-site comparisons and specificities demonstrate the benefits of different approaches. Pre-segmentation of the different geomorphologic zones and depth correction provided different advantages in different environments. Our results help guide scientists and managers in applying IKONOS-class data for coral reef mapping applications. ?? 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.
Step responses of a torsional system with multiple clearances: Study of vibro-impact phenomenon using experimental and computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oruganti, Pradeep Sharma; Krak, Michael D.; Singh, Rajendra

2018-01-01

Recently Krak and Singh (2017) proposed a scientific experiment that examined vibro-impacts in a torsional system under a step down excitation and provided preliminary measurements and limited non-linear model studies. A major goal of this article is to extend the prior work with a focus on the examination of vibro-impact phenomena observed under step responses in a torsional system with one, two or three controlled clearances. First, new measurements are made at several locations with a higher sampling frequency. Measured angular accelerations are examined in both time and time-frequency domains. Minimal order non-linear models of the experiment are successfully constructed, using piecewise linear stiffness and Coulomb friction elements; eight cases of the generic system are examined though only three are experimentally studied. Measured and predicted responses for single and dual clearance configurations exhibit double sided impacts and time varying periods suggest softening trends under the step down torque. Non-linear models are experimentally validated by comparing results with new measurements and with those previously reported. Several metrics are utilized to quantify and compare the measured and predicted responses (including peak to peak accelerations). Eigensolutions and step responses of the corresponding linearized models are utilized to better understand the nature of the non-linear dynamic system. Finally, the effect of step amplitude on the non-linear responses is examined for several configurations, and hardening trends are observed in the torsional system with three clearances.
Amplitude Frequency Response Measurement: A Simple Technique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satish, L.; Vora, S. C.

2010-01-01

A simple method is described to combine a modern function generator and a digital oscilloscope to configure a setup that can directly measure the amplitude frequency response of a system. This is achieved by synchronously triggering both instruments, with the function generator operated in the "Linear-Sweep" frequency mode, while the oscilloscope…
Health, behavioral, cognitive, and social correlates of breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods.

PubMed

Smith, Kylie J; McNaughton, Sarah A; Cleland, Verity J; Crawford, David; Ball, Kylie

2013-11-01

Breakfast skipping is a potentially modifiable behavior that has negative effects on health and is socioeconomically patterned. This study aimed to examine the intrapersonal (health, behavioral, and cognitive) and social factors associated with breakfast skipping. Nonpregnant women (n = 4123) aged 18-45 y from socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods throughout Victoria, Australia, completed a postal questionnaire. Sociodemographic characteristics, diet, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and cognitive and social factors were assessed by self-report. Breakfast skipping was defined in 2 ways: 1) "rarely/never" eating breakfast (n = 498) and 2) eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk (includes those who rarely/never ate breakfast; n = 865). Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios and linear trends, adjusting for covariates. The P values for linear trends are reported below. Compared with breakfast consumers, women who reported rarely/never eating breakfast tended to have poorer self-rated health (P-trend < 0.001), be current smokers (P-trend < 0.001), pay less attention to health (P-trend < 0.001), not prioritize their own healthy eating when busy looking after their family (P-trend < 0.001), have less nutrition knowledge (P-trend < 0.001), and a lower proportion were trying to control their weight (P-trend < 0.020). When breakfast skipping was defined as eating breakfast ≤2 d/wk, additional associations were found for having lower leisure-time physical activity (P-trend = 0.012) and less self-efficacy for eating a healthy diet (P-trend < 0.043). In conclusion, a range of intrapersonal and social factors were significantly associated with breakfast skipping among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Acknowledging the cross-sectional design and need for causal confirmation, programs that aim to promote breakfast consumption in this population group should consider targeting family-related barriers to healthy eating and nutrition knowledge.

A new approach for modeling gravitational radiation from the inspiral of two neutron stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Stephen A.

In this dissertation, a new method of applying the ADM formalism of general relativity to model the gravitational radiation emitted from the realistic inspiral of a neutron star binary is described. A description of the conformally flat condition (CFC) is summarized, and the ADM equations are solved by use of the CFC approach for a neutron star binary. The advantages and limitations of this approach are discussed, and the need for a more accurate improvement to this approach is described. To address this need, a linearized perturbation of the CFC spatial three metric is then introduced. The general relativistic hydrodynamic equations are then allowed to evolve against this basis under the assumption that the first-order corrections to the hydrodynamic variables are negligible compared to their CFC values. As a first approximation, the linear corrections to the conformal factor, lapse function, and shift vector are also assumed to be small compared to the extrinsic curvature and the three metric. A boundary matching method is then introduced as a way of computing the gravitational radiation of this relativistic system without use of the multipole expansion as employed by earlier applications of the CFC approach. It is assumed that at a location far from the source, the three metric is accurately described by a linear correction to Minkowski spacetime. The two polarizations of gravitational radiation can then be computed at that point in terms of the linearized correction to the metric. The evolution equations obtained from the linearized perturbative correction to the CFC approach and the method for recovery of the gravity wave signal are then tested by use of a three-dimensional numerical simulation. This code is used to compute the gravity wave signal emitted a pair of equal mass neutron stars in quasi-stable circular orbits at a point early in their inspiral phase. From this simple numerical analysis, the correct general trend of gravitational radiation is recovered. Comparisons with (5/2) post-Newtonian solutions show a similar gravitational waveform, although inaccuracies are still found to exist from this computation. Finally, several areas for improvement and potential future applications of this technique are discussed.
Automated mapping of linear dunefield morphometric parameters from remotely-sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telfer, M. W.; Fyfe, R. M.; Lewin, S.

2015-12-01

Linear dunes are among the world's most common desert dune types, and typically occur in dunefields arranged in remarkably organized patterns extending over hundreds of kilometers. The causes of the patterns, formed by dunes merging, bifurcating and terminating, are still poorly understood, although it is widely accepted that they are emergent properties of the complex system of interactions between the boundary layer and an often-vegetated erodible substrate. Where such dunefields are vegetated, they are typically used as extensive rangeland, yet it is evident that many currently stabilized dunefields have been reactivated repeatedly during the late Quaternary. It has been suggested that dunefield patterning and the temporal evolution of dunefields are related, and thus there is considerable interest in better understanding the boundary conditions controlling dune patterning, especially given the possibility of reactivation of currently-stabilized dunefields under 21st century climate change. However, the time-consuming process of manual dune mapping has hampered attempts at quantitative description of dunefield patterning. This study aims to develop and test methods for delineating linear dune trendlines automatically from freely-available remotely sensed datasets. The highest resolution free global topographic data presently available (Aster GDEM v2) proved to be of marginal use, as the topographic expression of the dunes is of the same order as the vertical precision of the dataset (∼10 m), but in regions with relatively simple patterning it defined dune trends adequately. Analysis of spectral data (panchromatic Landsat 8 data) proved more promising in five of the six test sites, and despite poor panchromatic signal/noise ratios for the sixth site, the reflectance in the deep blue/violet (Landsat 8 Band 1) offers an alternative method of delineating dune pattern. A new edge detection algorithm (LInear Dune Optimized edge detection; LIDO) is proposed, based on Sobel operators with directional filtering and topologically-constrained recursion to optimize the inclusion of marginal zones. The method offers the potential for rapid quantitative mapping of linear dunefield patterning, providing validation data for modeling studies, and offering for the first time the ability to readily remap dunefields to assess dune reorganization at the dunefield scale.
Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN. These sources were clearly linked with anthropogenic activities, and the observed decreasing trends confirmed the effectiveness of pollution control measures implemented at European or regional/local levels. Conversely, at regional level, the contributions from sources mostly linked with natural processes, such as aged marine and aged organics, did not show statistically significant trends. The trends observed for the PM10 source contributions reflected the trends observed for the chemical tracers of these pollutant sources well.
The differential impact of the financial crisis on Health in Ireland and Greece: A quasi-experimental approach

PubMed Central

Hessel, P; Vandoros, S; Avendano, M

2015-01-01

Objectives Greece and Ireland suffered an economic recession of similar magnitude, but whether their health has deteriorated as a result has not yet been well established. Study design Based on five waves (2006-2010) of the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey we implemented a difference-in-differences (DID) approach that compared trends in self-rated health in Greece and Ireland before and after the crisis with trends in a control population (Poland) that did not experience a recession and had health trends comparable to both countries before the crisis. Methods Logistic regression using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Results A simple examination of trends suggests that there was no significant change in health in Greece or Ireland following the onset of the financial crisis. However, DID estimates that incorporated a control population suggest an increase in the prevalence of poor-self rated health in Greece (OR=1.216; CI=1.11 - 1.32). Effects were most pronounced for older individuals and those living in high-density areas, but effects in Greece were overwhelmingly consistent in different population sub-groups. In contrast, DID estimates revealed no effect of the financial crisis in Ireland (OR=0.97; CI=0.81-1.16). Conclusions Contradicting results from a simple comparison of single-country trends, DID estimates suggest that the financial crisis has led to deterioration of population health trends in Greece but not in Ireland, where policies may have prevented a worsening of health as a result of the recent economic crisis. PMID:25369355
Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2001-01-01

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.
Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2009-09-01

Climate change has an important role in the current scientific research because of its possible future negative consequences. Concerning the climate change in the coastal engineering field, the apparent sea level rise is one of the key parameters as well as the wave height and the wave direction temporal variations. According to the IPCC (2007), during the last century the sea level has been increasing with a mean rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr. However, at local/regional scale the tendency significantly differs from the global trend since the local pressure and wind field variations become more relevant. This appears to be particularly significant in semi-enclosed areas in the Mediterranean Sea (Cushman-Roisin et al., 2001). Even though the existing unsolved questions related to the sea level rise, the uncertainty concerning the wave height is even larger, in which stormy conditions are especially important because they are closely related to processes such as coastal erosion, flooding, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to identify possible existing tendencies of storm related parameters. In many studies, only the maximum wave height and storm duration are analysed, remaining the wave direction in a second term. Note that a possible rotation of the mean wave direction may involve severe consequences since most beach and harbour defence structures have been designed assuming a constant predominant wave incidence. Liste et al. (2004) illustrated this fact with an example in which a rotation of only 2 degrees of the mean energy flux vector could produce a beach retreat of 20 m. Another possible consequence would be a decrease of the harbour operability: increased frequency of storms in the same direction as the harbour entrance orientation would influence the navigability. The present study, which focuses in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea), aims to improve the present knowledge of the wave storminess variations at regional scale, specially focusing on the wave directionality. It is based on 44 year hindcast model data (1958-2001) of the HIPOCAS project, enabling to work with a longer time series compared to the existing measured ones. 41 nodes of this database are used, containing 3 hourly simulated data of significant wave height and wave direction, among other parameters. For storm definition, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method is used with some additional duration requirements in order to analyse statistically independent events (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2006). Including both wave height and storm duration, the wave storminess is characterised by the energy content (Mendoza & Jiménez, 2004), being in turn log-transformed because of its positive scale. Separately, the wave directionality itself is analysed in terms of different sectors and approaching their probability of occurrence by counting events and using Bayesian inference (Agresti, 2002). Therefore, the original data is transformed into compositional data and, before performing the trend analysis, the isometric logratio (ilr) transformation (Egozcue et al., 2003) is done. In general, the trend analysis methodology consists in two steps: 1) trend detection and 2) trend quantification. For 1) the Mann Kendall test is used in order to identify the nodes with significant trend. For these selected nodes, the trend quantification is done, comparing two methods: 1) a simple linear regression analysis complemented with the bootstrap technique and 2) a Bayesian analysis, assuming normally distributed data with linearly increasing mean. Preliminary results show no significant trend for both annual mean and maximum energy content except for some nodes located to the Northern Catalan coast. Regarding the wave direction (but not only considering stormy conditions) there is a tendency of North direction to decrease whereas South and Southeast direction seems to increase.
Regional Landslide Mapping Aided by Automated Classification of SqueeSAR™ Time Series (Northern Apennines, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iannacone, J.; Berti, M.; Allievi, J.; Del Conte, S.; Corsini, A.

2013-12-01

Space borne InSAR has proven to be very valuable for landslides detection. In particular, extremely slow landslides (Cruden and Varnes, 1996) can be now clearly identified, thanks to the millimetric precision reached by recent multi-interferometric algorithms. The typical approach in radar interpretation for landslides mapping is based on average annual velocity of the deformation which is calculated over the entire times series. The Hotspot and Cluster Analysis (Lu et al., 2012) and the PSI-based matrix approach (Cigna et al., 2013) are examples of landslides mapping techniques based on average annual velocities. However, slope movements can be affected by non-linear deformation trends, (i.e. reactivation of dormant landslides, deceleration due to natural or man-made slope stabilization, seasonal activity, etc). Therefore, analyzing deformation time series is crucial in order to fully characterize slope dynamics. While this is relatively simple to be carried out manually when dealing with small dataset, the time series analysis over regional scale dataset requires automated classification procedures. Berti et al. (2013) developed an automatic procedure for the analysis of InSAR time series based on a sequence of statistical tests. The analysis allows to classify the time series into six distinctive target trends (0=uncorrelated; 1=linear; 2=quadratic; 3=bilinear; 4=discontinuous without constant velocity; 5=discontinuous with change in velocity) which are likely to represent different slope processes. The analysis also provides a series of descriptive parameters which can be used to characterize the temporal changes of ground motion. All the classification algorithms were integrated into a Graphical User Interface called PSTime. We investigated an area of about 2000 km2 in the Northern Apennines of Italy by using SqueeSAR™ algorithm (Ferretti et al., 2011). Two Radarsat-1 data stack, comprising of 112 scenes in descending orbit and 124 scenes in ascending orbit, were processed. The time coverage lasts from April 2003 to November 2012, with an average temporal frequency of 1 scene/month. Radar interpretation has been carried out by considering average annual velocities as well as acceleration/deceleration trends evidenced by PSTime. Altogether, from ascending and descending geometries respectively, this approach allowed detecting of 115 and 112 potential landslides on the basis of average displacement rate and 77 and 79 landslides on the basis of acceleration trends. In conclusion, time series analysis resulted to be very valuable for landslide mapping. In particular it highlighted areas with marked acceleration in a specific period in time while still being affected by low average annual velocity over the entire analysis period. On the other hand, even in areas with high average annual velocity, time series analysis was of primary importance to characterize the slope dynamics in terms of acceleration events.
Inverse Modelling Problems in Linear Algebra Undergraduate Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinez-Luaces, Victor E.

2013-01-01

This paper will offer an analysis from a theoretical point of view of mathematical modelling, applications and inverse problems of both causation and specification types. Inverse modelling problems give the opportunity to establish connections between theory and practice and to show this fact, a simple linear algebra example in two different…
Transportable Maps Software. Volume I.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-07-01

being collected at the beginning or end of the routine. This allows the interaction to be followed sequentially through its steps by anyone reading the...flow is either simple sequential , simple conditional (the equivalent of ’if-then-else’), simple iteration (’DO-loop’), or the non-linear recursion...input raster images to be in the form of sequential binary files with a SEGMENTED record type. The advantage of this form is that large logical records
Examining Factors Affecting Science Achievement of Hong Kong in PISA 2006 Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Terence Yuk Ping; Lau, Kwok Chi

2014-01-01

This study uses hierarchical linear modeling to examine the influence of a range of factors on the science performances of Hong Kong students in PISA 2006. Hong Kong has been consistently ranked highly in international science assessments, such as Programme for International Student Assessment and Trends in International Mathematics and Science…
Relationships among Instructional Practices, Students' Motivational Beliefs and Science Achievement in Taiwan Using Hierarchical Linear Modelling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liou, Pey-Yan; Ho, Hsin-Ning Jessie

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine students' perceptions of instructional practices in the classroom, and to further investigate the relationships among instructional practices, motivational beliefs and science achievement. Hierarchical linear modelling was utilised to examine the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2007…
Hydraulic geometry of the Platte River in south-central Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eschner, T.R.

1982-01-01

At-a-station hydraulic-geometry of the Platte River in south-central Nebraska is complex. The range of exponents of simple power-function relations is large, both between different reaches of the river, and among different sections within a given reach. The at-a-station exponents plot in several fields of the b-f-m diagram, suggesting that morphologic and hydraulic changes with increasing discharge vary considerably. Systematic changes in the plotting positions of the exponents with time indicate that in general, the width exponent has decreased, although trends are not readily apparent in the other exponents. Plots of the hydraulic-geometry relations indicate that simple power functions are not the proper model in all instances. For these sections, breaks in the slopes of the hydraulic geometry relations serve to partition the data sets. Power functions fit separately to the partitioned data described the width-, depth-, and velocity-discharge relations more accurately than did a single power function. Plotting positions of the exponents from hydraulic geometry relations of partitioned data sets on b-f-m diagrams indicate that much of the apparent variations of plotting positions of single power functions results because the single power functions compromise both subsets of partitioned data. For several sections, the shape of the channel primarily accounts for the better fit of two-power functions to partitioned data than a single power function over the entire range of data. These non-log linear relations may have significance for channel maintenance. (USGS)
Sensitivity of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to the complexity of aquifer systems for monitoring of groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katpatal, Yashwant B.; Rishma, C.; Singh, Chandan K.

2018-05-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission is aimed at assessment of groundwater storage under different terrestrial conditions. The main objective of the presented study is to highlight the significance of aquifer complexity to improve the performance of GRACE in monitoring groundwater. Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, central India, was selected as the study area for analysis, since the region comprises a simple aquifer system in the western region and a complex aquifer system in the eastern region. Groundwater-level-trend analyses of the different aquifer systems and spatial and temporal variation of the terrestrial water storage anomaly were studied to understand the groundwater scenario. GRACE and its field application involve selecting four pixels from the GRACE output with different aquifer systems, where each GRACE pixel encompasses 50-90 monitoring wells. Groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) are derived for each pixel for the period 2002 to 2015 using the Release 05 (RL05) monthly GRACE gravity models and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land-surface models (GWSAGRACE) as well as the actual field data (GWSAActual). Correlation analysis between GWSAGRACE and GWSAActual was performed using linear regression. The Pearson and Spearman methods show that the performance of GRACE is good in the region with simple aquifers; however, performance is poorer in the region with multiple aquifer systems. The study highlights the importance of incorporating the sensitivity of GRACE in estimation of groundwater storage in complex aquifer systems in future studies.
Environmental controls on alpine cirque size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delmas, Magali; Gunnell, Yanni; Calvet, Marc

2014-02-01

Pleistocene alpine cirques are emblematic landforms of mountain scenery, yet their deceptively simple template conceals complex controlling variables. This comparative study presents a new database of 1071 cirques, the largest of its kind, located in the French eastern Pyrenees. It is embedded in a review of previous work on cirque morphometry and thus provides a perspective on a global scale. First-order cirque attributes of length, width, and amplitude were measured; and their power as predictors of climatic and lithological variables and as proxies for the duration of glacier activity was tested using ANOVA, simple and multiple linear regression, and their various post-hoc tests. Conventional variables such as cirque aspect, floor elevation, and exposure with respect to regional precipitation-bearing weather systems are shown to present some consistency in spatial patterns determined by solar radiation, the morning-afternoon effect, and wind-blown snow accumulation in the lee of ridgetops. This confirms in greater detail the previously encountered links between landforms and climate. A special focus on the influence of bedrock lithology, a previously neglected nonclimatic variable, highlights the potential for spurious relations in the use of cirque size as a proxy of past environmental conditions. Cirques are showcased as complex landforms resulting from the combination of many climatic and nonclimatic variables that remain difficult to rank by order of importance. Apart from a few statistically weak trends, several combinations of different factors in different proportions are shown to produce similar morphometric outcomes, suggesting a case of equifinality in landform development.
Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.
Characterizing trends in fruit and vegetable intake in the US by self-report and by supply-and-disappearance data: 2001-2014

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objective: To examine the comparability of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake data in the US from 2001-2014 between data acquired from two national data collection programs. Design: Cross-sectional analysis. Linear regression models estimated trends in daily per-capita intake of total F&V. Pooled di...
Nearest-neighbor thermodynamics of deoxyinosine pairs in DNA duplexes

PubMed Central

Watkins, Norman E.; SantaLucia, John

2005-01-01

Nearest-neighbor thermodynamic parameters of the ‘universal pairing base’ deoxyinosine were determined for the pairs I·C, I·A, I·T, I·G and I·I adjacent to G·C and A·T pairs. Ultraviolet absorbance melting curves were measured and non-linear regression performed on 84 oligonucleotide duplexes with 9 or 12 bp lengths. These data were combined with data for 13 inosine containing duplexes from the literature. Multiple linear regression was used to solve for the 32 nearest-neighbor unknowns. The parameters predict the Tm for all sequences within 1.2°C on average. The general trend in decreasing stability is I·C > I·A > I·T ≈ I· G > I·I. The stability trend for the base pair 5′ of the I·X pair is G·C > C·G > A·T > T·A. The stability trend for the base pair 3′ of I·X is the same. These trends indicate a complex interplay between H-bonding, nearest-neighbor stacking, and mismatch geometry. A survey of 14 tandem inosine pairs and 8 tandem self-complementary inosine pairs is also provided. These results may be used in the design of degenerate PCR primers and for degenerate microarray probes. PMID:16264087
Simple, explicitly time-dependent, and regular solutions of the linearized vacuum Einstein equations in Bondi-Sachs coordinates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mädler, Thomas

2013-05-01

Perturbations of the linearized vacuum Einstein equations in the Bondi-Sachs formulation of general relativity can be derived from a single master function with spin weight two, which is related to the Weyl scalar Ψ0, and which is determined by a simple wave equation. By utilizing a standard spin representation of tensors on a sphere and two different approaches to solve the master equation, we are able to determine two simple and explicitly time-dependent solutions. Both solutions, of which one is asymptotically flat, comply with the regularity conditions at the vertex of the null cone. For the asymptotically flat solution we calculate the corresponding linearized perturbations, describing all multipoles of spin-2 waves that propagate on a Minkowskian background spacetime. We also analyze the asymptotic behavior of this solution at null infinity using a Penrose compactification and calculate the Weyl scalar Ψ4. Because of its simplicity, the asymptotically flat solution presented here is ideally suited for test bed calculations in the Bondi-Sachs formulation of numerical relativity. It may be considered as a sibling of the Bergmann-Sachs or Teukolsky-Rinne solutions, on spacelike hypersurfaces, for a metric adapted to null hypersurfaces.
Dynamical heterogeneities and mechanical non-linearities: Modeling the onset of plasticity in polymer in the glass transition.

PubMed

Masurel, R J; Gelineau, P; Lequeux, F; Cantournet, S; Montes, H

2017-12-27

In this paper we focus on the role of dynamical heterogeneities on the non-linear response of polymers in the glass transition domain. We start from a simple coarse-grained model that assumes a random distribution of the initial local relaxation times and that quantitatively describes the linear viscoelasticity of a polymer in the glass transition regime. We extend this model to non-linear mechanics assuming a local Eyring stress dependence of the relaxation times. Implementing the model in a finite element mechanics code, we derive the mechanical properties and the local mechanical fields at the beginning of the non-linear regime. The model predicts a narrowing of distribution of relaxation times and the storage of a part of the mechanical energy --internal stress-- transferred to the material during stretching in this temperature range. We show that the stress field is not spatially correlated under and after loading and follows a Gaussian distribution. In addition the strain field exhibits shear bands, but the strain distribution is narrow. Hence, most of the mechanical quantities can be calculated analytically, in a very good approximation, with the simple assumption that the strain rate is constant.
Aging and free surface flow of a thixotropic fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huynh, H. T.; Roussel, N.; Coussot, P.

2005-03-01

Free surface flows of thixotropic fluids such as paints, self-compacting concrete, or natural mudflows are of noticeable practical interest. Here we study the basic characteristics of the uniform flow of a layer of thixotropic fluid under gravity. A theoretical approach relying on a simple thixotropy constitutive equation shows that after some time at rest over a small slope angle the fluid layer should start to flow rather abruptly beyond a new, larger, critical slope angle. The theory also predicts that the critical time at which the layer velocity should significantly increase is proportional to the duration of the preliminary rest and tends to infinity when the new slope approaches the critical slope. Experiments carried out with different suspensions show that the qualitative trends of the flows are in very good agreement with the theoretical predictions, except that the critical time for flow start appears to be proportional to a power 0.6 of the time of rest whereas the theory predicts a linear dependence. We show that this indicates a restructuration process at rest differing from the restructuration process under flow.

Quantifying Environmental Effects on the Decay of Hole Transfer Couplings in Biosystems.

PubMed

Ramos, Pablo; Pavanello, Michele

2014-06-10

In the past two decades, many research groups worldwide have tried to understand and categorize simple regimes in the charge transfer of such biological systems as DNA. Theoretically speaking, the lack of exact theories for electron-nuclear dynamics on one side and poor quality of the parameters needed by model Hamiltonians and nonadiabatic dynamics alike (such as couplings and site energies) on the other are the two main difficulties for an appropriate description of the charge transfer phenomena. In this work, we present an application of a previously benchmarked and linear-scaling subsystem density functional theory (DFT) method for the calculation of couplings, site energies, and superexchange decay factors (β) of several biological donor-acceptor dyads, as well as double stranded DNA oligomers composed of up to five base pairs. The calculations are all-electron and provide a clear view of the role of the environment on superexchange couplings in DNA-they follow experimental trends and confirm previous semiempirical calculations. The subsystem DFT method is proven to be an excellent tool for long-range, bridge-mediated coupling and site energy calculations of embedded molecular systems.
Development of dense glass-ceramic from recycled soda-lime-silicate glass and fly ash for tiling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustaffar, Mohd Idham; Mahmud, Mohamad Haniza; Hassan, Mahadi Abu

2017-12-01

Dense glass-ceramics were prepared by sinter-crystallization process from a combination of soda-lime-silicate glass waste and fly ash. Bentonite clay that acted as a binder was also added in a prepared formulation. The powder mixture of soda-lime glass, fly ash and bentonite clay were compacted by using uniaxial hydraulic press machine and sintered at six (6) various temperatures namely 750, 800, 850, 900, 950 and 1000 °C. The heating rate and sintering time were set at 5 °C/min and 30 minutes respectively. The results revealed that modulus of rupture (MOR), density and linear shrinkage increase first from 750 to 800 °C but decrease later after 800 to 1000 °C. In the meantime, water absorption was showing completely an opposite trend. The glass-ceramic sintered at 800 °C was found to have the best combination of physical-mechanical properties and has the potential to be applied in the construction industry particularly as floor and wall tiles because of the simple manufacturing process at low temperature.
Adaptation of a Multi-Block Structured Solver for Effective Use in a Hybrid CPU/GPU Massively Parallel Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutzwiller, David; Gontier, Mathieu; Demeulenaere, Alain

2014-11-01

Multi-Block structured solvers hold many advantages over their unstructured counterparts, such as a smaller memory footprint and efficient serial performance. Historically, multi-block structured solvers have not been easily adapted for use in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and the recent trend towards hybrid GPU/CPU architectures has further complicated the situation. This paper will elaborate on developments and innovations applied to the NUMECA FINE/Turbo solver that have allowed near-linear scalability with real-world problems on over 250 hybrid GPU/GPU cluster nodes. Discussion will focus on the implementation of virtual partitioning and load balancing algorithms using a novel meta-block concept. This implementation is transparent to the user, allowing all pre- and post-processing steps to be performed using a simple, unpartitioned grid topology. Additional discussion will elaborate on developments that have improved parallel performance, including fully parallel I/O with the ADIOS API and the GPU porting of the computationally heavy CPUBooster convergence acceleration module. Head of HPC and Release Management, Numeca International.
Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: is bigger better?

PubMed Central

Jarvandi, Soghra; Schootman, Mario; Racette, Susan B.

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design Cross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24-h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable) expressed as either absolute or relative (% of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on intake at lunch, dinner, and snacks. Setting The 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Subjects Participants aged ≥ 30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (N = 1,146). Results Daily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001; quadratic trend, P = 0.02), but decreased as relative breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001). In addition, while higher quartiles of absolute breakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (P < 0.05). Conclusions Consuming a breakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:25529061
Personality and Gastric Cancer Screening Attendance:  A Cross-Sectional Analysis from the Miyagi Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Arai, Shizuha; Nakaya, Naoki; Kakizaki, Masako; Ohmori-Matsuda, Kaori; Shimazu, Taichi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Fukao, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro

2009-01-01

Objective To determine the associations between personality subscales and attendance at gastric cancer screenings in Japan. Methods A total of 21,911 residents in rural Japan who completed a short form of the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQ-R) and a questionnaire on various health habits including the number of gastric cancer screenings attended were included in the primary analysis. We defined gastric cancer screening compliance as attendance at gastric cancer screening every year for the previous 5 years; all other patterns of attendance were defined as non-compliance. We defined gastric cancer screening visiting as attendance at 1 or more screenings during the previous 5 years; lack of attendance was defined as non-visiting. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of gastric cancer screening compliance and visiting according to 4 score levels that corresponded to the 4 EPQ-R subscales (extraversion, neuroticism, psychoticism, and lie). Result Extraversion had a significant linear, positive association with both compliance and visiting (trend, P < 0.001 for both). Neuroticism had a significant linear, inverse association with compliance (trend, P = 0.047), but not with visiting (trend, P = 0.21). Psychoticism had a significant linear, inverse association with both compliance and visiting (trend, P < 0.001 for both). Lie had no association with either compliance or visiting. Conclusion The personality traits of extraversion, neuroticism, and psychoticism were significantly associated with gastric cancer screening attendance. A better understanding of the association between personality and attendance could lead to the establishment of effective campaigns to motivate people to attend cancer screenings. PMID:19164872
Integration of altimetric lake levels and GRACE gravimetry over Africa: Inferences for terrestrial water storage change 2003-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, P.; Williams, S. D. P.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change for 2003-2011 is estimated over Africa from GRACE gravimetric data. The signatures from change in water of the major lakes are removed by utilizing kernel functions with lake heights recovered from retracked ENVISAT satellite altimetry. In addition, the contribution of gravimetric change due to soil moisture and biomass is removed from the total GRACE signal by utilizing the GLDAS land surface model. The residual TWS time series, namely groundwater and the surface waters in rivers, wetlands, and small lakes, are investigated for trends and the seasonal cycle using linear regression. Typically, such analyses assume that the data are temporally uncorrelated but this has been shown to lead to erroneous inferences in related studies concerning the linear rate and acceleration. In this study, we utilize autocorrelation and investigate the appropriate stochastic model. The results show the proper distribution of TWS change and identify the spatial distribution of significant rates and accelerations. The effect of surface water in the major lakes is shown to contribute significantly to the trend and seasonal variation in TWS in the lake basin. Lake Volta, a managed reservoir in Ghana, is seen to have a contribution to the linear trend that is a factor of three greater than that of Lake Victoria despite having a surface area one-eighth of that of Lake Victoria. Analysis also shows the confidence levels of the deterministic trend and acceleration identifying areas where the signatures are most likely due to a physical deterministic cause and not simply stochastic variations.
Exploring stability of entropy analysis for signal with different trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yin; Li, Jin; Wang, Jun

2017-03-01

Considering the effects of environment disturbances and instrument systems, the actual detecting signals always are carrying different trends, which result in that it is difficult to accurately catch signals complexity. So choosing steady and effective analysis methods is very important. In this paper, we applied entropy measures-the base-scale entropy and approximate entropy to analyze signal complexity, and studied the effect of trends on the ideal signal and the heart rate variability (HRV) signals, that is, linear, periodic, and power-law trends which are likely to occur in actual signals. The results show that approximate entropy is unsteady when we embed different trends into the signals, so it is not suitable to analyze signal with trends. However, the base-scale entropy has preferable stability and accuracy for signal with different trends. So the base-scale entropy is an effective method to analyze the actual signals.
Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

2018-01-01

Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.
A Search for Mountain Waves in MLS Stratospheric Limb Radiances from the Winter Northern Hemisphere: Data Analysis and Global Mountain Wave Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-02-11

the general circulation of the middle atmosphere, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A, 323, 693–705. Anton , H. (2000), Elementary Linear Algebra ...Because the saturated radiances may depend slightly on tangent height as the limb path length decreases, a linear trend (described by parameters a and b...track days and interpolated onto the same limb-track orbits. The color bar scale for radiance variance is linear . (b) Digital elevations of northern
Experimental Investigation of Hysteretic Dynamic Capillarity Effect in Unsaturated Flow

PubMed Central

Zhuang, Luwen; Qin, Chao‐Zhong; de Waal, Arjen

2017-01-01

Abstract The difference between average pressures of two immiscible fluids is commonly assumed to be the same as macroscopic capillary pressure, which is considered to be a function of saturation only. However, under transient conditions, a dependence of this pressure difference on the time rate of saturation change has been observed by many researchers. This is commonly referred to as dynamic capillarity effect. As a first‐order approximation, the dynamic term is assumed to be linearly dependent on the time rate of change of saturation, through a material coefficient denoted by τ. In this study, a series of laboratory experiments were carried out to quantify the dynamic capillarity effect in an unsaturated sandy soil. Primary, main, and scanning drainage experiments, under both static and dynamic conditions, were performed on a sandy soil in a small cell. The value of the dynamic capillarity coefficient τ was calculated from the air‐water pressure differences and average saturation values during static and dynamic drainage experiments. We found a dependence of τ on saturation, which showed a similar trend for all drainage conditions. However, at any given saturation, the value of τ for primary drainage was larger than the value for main drainage and that was in turn larger than the value for scanning drainage. Each data set was fit a simple log‐linear equation, with different values of fitting parameters. This nonuniqueness of the relationship between τ and saturation and possible causes is discussed. PMID:29398729
Experimental Investigation of Hysteretic Dynamic Capillarity Effect in Unsaturated Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Luwen; Hassanizadeh, S. Majid; Qin, Chao-Zhong; de Waal, Arjen

2017-11-01

The difference between average pressures of two immiscible fluids is commonly assumed to be the same as macroscopic capillary pressure, which is considered to be a function of saturation only. However, under transient conditions, a dependence of this pressure difference on the time rate of saturation change has been observed by many researchers. This is commonly referred to as dynamic capillarity effect. As a first-order approximation, the dynamic term is assumed to be linearly dependent on the time rate of change of saturation, through a material coefficient denoted by τ. In this study, a series of laboratory experiments were carried out to quantify the dynamic capillarity effect in an unsaturated sandy soil. Primary, main, and scanning drainage experiments, under both static and dynamic conditions, were performed on a sandy soil in a small cell. The value of the dynamic capillarity coefficient τ was calculated from the air-water pressure differences and average saturation values during static and dynamic drainage experiments. We found a dependence of τ on saturation, which showed a similar trend for all drainage conditions. However, at any given saturation, the value of τ for primary drainage was larger than the value for main drainage and that was in turn larger than the value for scanning drainage. Each data set was fit a simple log-linear equation, with different values of fitting parameters. This nonuniqueness of the relationship between τ and saturation and possible causes is discussed.
A simple derivation for amplitude and time period of charged particles in an electrostatic bathtub potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prathap Reddy, K.

2016-11-01

An ‘electrostatic bathtub potential’ is defined and analytical expressions for the time period and amplitude of charged particles in this potential are obtained and compared with simulations. These kinds of potentials are encountered in linear electrostatic ion traps, where the potential along the axis appears like a bathtub. Ion traps are used in basic physics research and mass spectrometry to store ions; these stored ions make oscillatory motion within the confined volume of the trap. Usually these traps are designed and studied using ion optical software, but in this work the bathtub potential is reproduced by making two simple modifications to the harmonic oscillator potential. The addition of a linear ‘k 1|x|’ potential makes the simple harmonic potential curve steeper with a sharper turn at the origin, while the introduction of a finite-length zero potential region at the centre reproduces the flat region of the bathtub curve. This whole exercise of modelling a practical experimental situation in terms of a well-known simple physics problem may generate interest among readers.
Linearization of the bradford protein assay.

PubMed

Ernst, Orna; Zor, Tsaffrir

2010-04-12

Determination of microgram quantities of protein in the Bradford Coomassie brilliant blue assay is accomplished by measurement of absorbance at 590 nm. This most common assay enables rapid and simple protein quantification in cell lysates, cellular fractions, or recombinant protein samples, for the purpose of normalization of biochemical measurements. However, an intrinsic nonlinearity compromises the sensitivity and accuracy of this method. It is shown that under standard assay conditions, the ratio of the absorbance measurements at 590 nm and 450 nm is strictly linear with protein concentration. This simple procedure increases the accuracy and improves the sensitivity of the assay about 10-fold, permitting quantification down to 50 ng of bovine serum albumin. Furthermore, the interference commonly introduced by detergents that are used to create the cell lysates is greatly reduced by the new protocol. A linear equation developed on the basis of mass action and Beer's law perfectly fits the experimental data.
Quantum monodromy and quantum phase transitions in floppy molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larese, Danielle

2012-10-01

A simple algebraic Hamiltonian has been used to explore the vibrational and rotational spectra of the skeletal bending modes of HCNO, BrCNO, NCNCS, and other "floppy" (quasi-linear or quasi-bent) molecules. These molecules have large-amplitude, low-energy bending modes and champagne-bottle potential surfaces, making them good candidates for observing quantum phase transitions (QPT). We describe the geometric phase transitions from bent to linear in these and other non-rigid molecules, quantitatively analyzing the spectroscopic signatures of ground state QPT, excited state QPT, and quantum monodromy. The algebraic framework is ideal for this work because of its small calculational effort yet robust results. Although these methods have historically found success with tri-and four-atomic molecules, we now address five-atomic and simple branched molecules such as CH3NCO and GeH3NCO. Extraction of potential functions are completed for several molecules, resulting in predictions of barriers to linearity and equilibrium bond angles.
Ball-morph: definition, implementation, and comparative evaluation.

PubMed

Whited, Brian; Rossignac, Jaroslaw Jarek

2011-06-01

We define b-compatibility for planar curves and propose three ball morphing techniques between pairs of b-compatible curves. Ball-morphs use the automatic ball-map correspondence, proposed by Chazal et al., from which we derive different vertex trajectories (linear, circular, and parabolic). All three morphs are symmetric, meeting both curves with the same angle, which is a right angle for the circular and parabolic. We provide simple constructions for these ball-morphs and compare them to each other and other simple morphs (linear-interpolation, closest-projection, curvature-interpolation, Laplace-blending, and heat-propagation) using six cost measures (travel-distance, distortion, stretch, local acceleration, average squared mean curvature, and maximum squared mean curvature). The results depend heavily on the input curves. Nevertheless, we found that the linear ball-morph has consistently the shortest travel-distance and the circular ball-morph has the least amount of distortion.
A cooperation and competition based simple cell receptive field model and study of feed-forward linear and nonlinear contributions to orientation selectivity.

PubMed

Bhaumik, Basabi; Mathur, Mona

2003-01-01

We present a model for development of orientation selectivity in layer IV simple cells. Receptive field (RF) development in the model, is determined by diffusive cooperation and resource limited competition guided axonal growth and retraction in geniculocortical pathway. The simulated cortical RFs resemble experimental RFs. The receptive field model is incorporated in a three-layer visual pathway model consisting of retina, LGN and cortex. We have studied the effect of activity dependent synaptic scaling on orientation tuning of cortical cells. The mean value of hwhh (half width at half the height of maximum response) in simulated cortical cells is 58 degrees when we consider only the linear excitatory contribution from LGN. We observe a mean improvement of 22.8 degrees in tuning response due to the non-linear spiking mechanisms that include effects of threshold voltage and synaptic scaling factor.
NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.
Linear thermal circulator based on Coriolis forces.

PubMed

Li, Huanan; Kottos, Tsampikos

2015-02-01

We show that the presence of a Coriolis force in a rotating linear lattice imposes a nonreciprocal propagation of the phononic heat carriers. Using this effect we propose the concept of Coriolis linear thermal circulator which can control the circulation of a heat current. A simple model of three coupled harmonic masses on a rotating platform permits us to demonstrate giant circulating rectification effects for moderate values of the angular velocities of the platform.
Life satisfaction and age: Dealing with underidentification in age-period-cohort models.

PubMed

de Ree, Joppe; Alessie, Rob

2011-07-01

Recent literature typically finds a U shaped relationship between life satisfaction and age. Age profiles, however, are not identified without forcing arbitrary restrictions on the cohort and/or time profiles. In this paper we report what can be identified about the relationship between life satisfaction and age without applying such restrictions. Also, we identify the restrictions needed to conclude that life satisfaction is U shaped in age. For the case of Germany, we find that the relationship between life satisfaction and age is indeed U shaped, but only under the untestable condition that the linear time trend is negative and that the linear trend across birth cohorts is practically flat. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Trends in non-stationary signal processing techniques applied to vibration analysis of wind turbine drive train - A contemporary survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uma Maheswari, R.; Umamaheswari, R.

2017-02-01

Condition Monitoring System (CMS) substantiates potential economic benefits and enables prognostic maintenance in wind turbine-generator failure prevention. Vibration Monitoring and Analysis is a powerful tool in drive train CMS, which enables the early detection of impending failure/damage. In variable speed drives such as wind turbine-generator drive trains, the vibration signal acquired is of non-stationary and non-linear. The traditional stationary signal processing techniques are inefficient to diagnose the machine faults in time varying conditions. The current research trend in CMS for drive-train focuses on developing/improving non-linear, non-stationary feature extraction and fault classification algorithms to improve fault detection/prediction sensitivity and selectivity and thereby reducing the misdetection and false alarm rates. In literature, review of stationary signal processing algorithms employed in vibration analysis is done at great extent. In this paper, an attempt is made to review the recent research advances in non-linear non-stationary signal processing algorithms particularly suited for variable speed wind turbines.

Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.
Changes in Clavicle Length and Maturation in Americans: 1840-1980.

PubMed

Langley, Natalie R; Cridlin, Sandra

2016-01-01

Secular changes refer to short-term biological changes ostensibly due to environmental factors. Two well-documented secular trends in many populations are earlier age of menarche and increasing stature. This study synthesizes data on maximum clavicle length and fusion of the medial epiphysis in 1840-1980 American birth cohorts to provide a comprehensive assessment of developmental and morphological change in the clavicle. Clavicles from the Hamann-Todd Human Osteological Collection (n = 354), McKern and Stewart Korean War males (n = 341), Forensic Anthropology Data Bank (n = 1,239), and the McCormick Clavicle Collection (n = 1,137) were used in the analysis. Transition analysis was used to evaluate fusion of the medial epiphysis (scored as unfused, fusing, or fused). Several statistical treatments were used to assess fluctuations in maximum clavicle length. First, Durbin-Watson tests were used to evaluate autocorrelation, and a local regression (LOESS) was used to identify visual shifts in the regression slope. Next, piecewise regression was used to fit linear regression models before and after the estimated breakpoints. Multiple starting parameters were tested in the range determined to contain the breakpoint, and the model with the smallest mean squared error was chosen as the best fit. The parameters from the best-fit models were then used to derive the piecewise models, which were compared with the initial simple linear regression models to determine which model provided the best fit for the secular change data. The epiphyseal union data indicate a decline in the age at onset of fusion since the early twentieth century. Fusion commences approximately four years earlier in mid- to late twentieth-century birth cohorts than in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century birth cohorts. However, fusion is completed at roughly the same age across cohorts. The most significant decline in age at onset of epiphyseal union appears to have occurred since the mid-twentieth century. LOESS plots show a breakpoint in the clavicle length data around the mid-twentieth century in both sexes, and piecewise regression models indicate a significant decrease in clavicle length in the American population after 1940. The piecewise model provides a slightly better fit than the simple linear model. Since the model standard error is not substantially different from the piecewise model, an argument could be made to select the less complex linear model. However, we chose the piecewise model to detect changes in clavicle length that are overfitted with a linear model. The decrease in maximum clavicle length is in line with a documented narrowing of the American skeletal form, as shown by analyses of cranial and facial breadth and bi-iliac breadth of the pelvis. Environmental influences on skeletal form include increases in body mass index, health improvements, improved socioeconomic status, and elimination of infectious diseases. Secular changes in bony dimensions and skeletal maturation stipulate that medical and forensic standards used to deduce information about growth, health, and biological traits must be derived from modern populations.
A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.
Caffeine, coffee and tea intake and urinary estrogens and estrogen metabolites in premenopausal women

PubMed Central

Sisti, Julia S.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Caporaso, Neil E.; Gu, Fangyi; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Rosner, Bernard; Xu, Xia; Ziegler, Regina; Eliassen, A. Heather

2015-01-01

Background Prior studies have found weak inverse associations between breast cancer and caffeine and coffee intake, possibly mediated through their effects on sex hormones. Methods High-performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify levels of 15 individual estrogens and estrogen metabolites (EM) among 587 premenopausal women in the Nurses’ Health Study II with mid-luteal phase urine samples and caffeine, coffee and/or tea intakes from self-reported food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate linear mixed models were used to estimate geometric means of individual EM, pathways and ratios by intake categories, and P-values for tests of linear trend. Results Compared to women in the lowest quartile of caffeine consumption, those in the top quartile had higher urinary concentrations of 16α-hydroxyestrone (28% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 16-epiestriol (13% difference; P-trend=0.04), and a decreased parent estrogens/2-, 4-, 16-pathway ratio (P-trend=0.03). Coffee intake was associated with higher 2-catechols, including 2-hydroxyestradiol (57% difference, ≥4 cups/day vs. ≤6 cups/week; P-trend=0.001) and 2-hydroxyestrone (52% difference; P-trend=0.001), and several ratio measures. Decaffeinated coffee was not associated with 2-pathway metabolism, but women in the highest (vs. lowest) category of intake (≥2 cups/day vs. ≤1–3 cups/month) had significantly lower levels of two 16-pathway metabolites, estriol (25% difference; P-trend=0.01) and 17-epiestriol (48% difference; Ptrend=0.0004). Tea intake was positively associated with 17-epiestriol (52% difference; Ptrend=0.01). Conclusion Caffeine and coffee intake were both associated with profiles of estrogen metabolism in premenopausal women. Impact Consumption of caffeine and coffee may alter patterns of premenopausal estrogen metabolism. PMID:26063478
Trend of brain tumor incidence by histological subtypes in Japan: estimation from the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan, 1973-1993.

PubMed

Kaneko, Satoshi; Nomura, Kazuhiro; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Yamaguchi, Naohito

2002-10-01

In order to estimate the risk of primary brain tumor (PBT), we attempted to estimate the national incidence rates of PBT by histological subtypes using the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan (BTR). The number of deaths due to PBT in a certain year is the sum of the deaths among patients diagnosed in different years. Registered cases in the BTR represent incident cases of PBT in the whole country multiplied by a cover rate. The cover rate is defined as the proportions of PBT cases that the Registry counts in relation to all the cases in the country in a given year. If the survival experience among the registered cases represents the survival experience of all cases, then the rate of registered deaths represents all deaths due to PBT in Japan. By this logic, we estimated the cover rates and incidence rates from 1973 to 1993 using the BTR and National Vital Statistics data. Our estimates showed three patterns of time trends: (1) a gradual linear increasing trend before the 1980s followed by a plateau (total PBT, gliomas, meningioma, and hemangioblastoma), (2) a trend with a step-up increase in the 1980s followed by a plateau (germ cell tumor and pituitary tumor), and (3) a linear increasing trend throughout the observation period with no plateau (malignant lymphoma and neurinoma). Furthermore, obvious sex differences in time trends were observed in rates of meningioma, germ cell tumor, and pituitary tumor. The results of this study demonstrated several distinctive patterns in time trends, which give us insight into the possible etiologies of brain tumors. Further epidemiological study is needed to elucidate these findings.
Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced metabolic-activities and shortened crop-duration. Likewise, increased Tmin may result in lesser crop and biomass yields owing to the increased respiration.
''Math in a Can'': Teaching Mathematics and Engineering Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Narode, Ronald B.

2011-01-01

Using an apparently simple problem, ''Design a cylindrical can that will hold a liter of milk,'' this paper demonstrates how engineering design may facilitate the teaching of the following ideas to secondary students: linear and non-linear relationships; basic geometry of circles, rectangles, and cylinders; unit measures of area and volume;…
The Multifaceted Variable Approach: Selection of Method in Solving Simple Linear Equations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tahir, Salma; Cavanagh, Michael

2010-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of the solution strategies used by two groups of Year 8 students as they solved linear equations. The experimental group studied algebra following a multifaceted variable approach, while the comparison group used a traditional approach. Students in the experimental group employed different solution strategies,…
A Simple and Convenient Method of Multiple Linear Regression to Calculate Iodine Molecular Constants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Paul D.

2010-01-01

A new procedure using a student-friendly least-squares multiple linear-regression technique utilizing a function within Microsoft Excel is described that enables students to calculate molecular constants from the vibronic spectrum of iodine. This method is advantageous pedagogically as it calculates molecular constants for ground and excited…
Fitting program for linear regressions according to Mahon (1996)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trappitsch, Reto G.

2018-01-09

This program takes the users' Input data and fits a linear regression to it using the prescription presented by Mahon (1996). Compared to the commonly used York fit, this method has the correct prescription for measurement error propagation. This software should facilitate the proper fitting of measurements with a simple Interface.
Testing hypotheses for differences between linear regression lines

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch

2009-01-01

Five hypotheses are identified for testing differences between simple linear regression lines. The distinctions between these hypotheses are based on a priori assumptions and illustrated with full and reduced models. The contrast approach is presented as an easy and complete method for testing for overall differences between the regressions and for making pairwise...
Revisiting the Scale-Invariant, Two-Dimensional Linear Regression Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patzer, A. Beate C.; Bauer, Hans; Chang, Christian; Bolte, Jan; Su¨lzle, Detlev

2018-01-01

The scale-invariant way to analyze two-dimensional experimental and theoretical data with statistical errors in both the independent and dependent variables is revisited by using what we call the triangular linear regression method. This is compared to the standard least-squares fit approach by applying it to typical simple sets of example data…
Linearized self-consistent quasiparticle GW method: Application to semiconductors and simple metals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kutepov, A. L.; Oudovenko, V. S.; Kotliar, G.

We present a code implementing the linearized self-consistent quasiparticle GW method (QSGW) in the LAPW basis. Our approach is based on the linearization of the self-energy around zero frequency which differs it from the existing implementations of the QSGW method. The linearization allows us to use Matsubara frequencies instead of working on the real axis. This results in efficiency gains by switching to the imaginary time representation in the same way as in the space time method. The all electron LAPW basis set eliminates the need for pseudopotentials. We discuss the advantages of our approach, such as its N 3more » scaling with the system size N, as well as its shortcomings. We apply our approach to study the electronic properties of selected semiconductors, insulators, and simple metals and show that our code produces the results very close to the previously published QSGW data. Our implementation is a good platform for further many body diagrammatic resummations such as the vertex-corrected GW approach and the GW+DMFT method.« less
Linearized self-consistent quasiparticle GW method: Application to semiconductors and simple metals

DOE PAGES

Kutepov, A. L.; Oudovenko, V. S.; Kotliar, G.

2017-06-23

We present a code implementing the linearized self-consistent quasiparticle GW method (QSGW) in the LAPW basis. Our approach is based on the linearization of the self-energy around zero frequency which differs it from the existing implementations of the QSGW method. The linearization allows us to use Matsubara frequencies instead of working on the real axis. This results in efficiency gains by switching to the imaginary time representation in the same way as in the space time method. The all electron LAPW basis set eliminates the need for pseudopotentials. We discuss the advantages of our approach, such as its N 3more » scaling with the system size N, as well as its shortcomings. We apply our approach to study the electronic properties of selected semiconductors, insulators, and simple metals and show that our code produces the results very close to the previously published QSGW data. Our implementation is a good platform for further many body diagrammatic resummations such as the vertex-corrected GW approach and the GW+DMFT method.« less
Linear Optical Quantum Metrology with Single Photons: Exploiting Spontaneously Generated Entanglement to Beat the Shot-Noise Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motes, Keith R.; Olson, Jonathan P.; Rabeaux, Evan J.; Dowling, Jonathan P.; Olson, S. Jay; Rohde, Peter P.

2015-05-01

Quantum number-path entanglement is a resource for supersensitive quantum metrology and in particular provides for sub-shot-noise or even Heisenberg-limited sensitivity. However, such number-path entanglement has been thought to be resource intensive to create in the first place—typically requiring either very strong nonlinearities, or nondeterministic preparation schemes with feedforward, which are difficult to implement. Very recently, arising from the study of quantum random walks with multiphoton walkers, as well as the study of the computational complexity of passive linear optical interferometers fed with single-photon inputs, it has been shown that such passive linear optical devices generate a superexponentially large amount of number-path entanglement. A logical question to ask is whether this entanglement may be exploited for quantum metrology. We answer that question here in the affirmative by showing that a simple, passive, linear-optical interferometer—fed with only uncorrelated, single-photon inputs, coupled with simple, single-mode, disjoint photodetection—is capable of significantly beating the shot-noise limit. Our result implies a pathway forward to practical quantum metrology with readily available technology.
Linear optical quantum metrology with single photons: exploiting spontaneously generated entanglement to beat the shot-noise limit.

PubMed

Motes, Keith R; Olson, Jonathan P; Rabeaux, Evan J; Dowling, Jonathan P; Olson, S Jay; Rohde, Peter P

2015-05-01

Quantum number-path entanglement is a resource for supersensitive quantum metrology and in particular provides for sub-shot-noise or even Heisenberg-limited sensitivity. However, such number-path entanglement has been thought to be resource intensive to create in the first place--typically requiring either very strong nonlinearities, or nondeterministic preparation schemes with feedforward, which are difficult to implement. Very recently, arising from the study of quantum random walks with multiphoton walkers, as well as the study of the computational complexity of passive linear optical interferometers fed with single-photon inputs, it has been shown that such passive linear optical devices generate a superexponentially large amount of number-path entanglement. A logical question to ask is whether this entanglement may be exploited for quantum metrology. We answer that question here in the affirmative by showing that a simple, passive, linear-optical interferometer--fed with only uncorrelated, single-photon inputs, coupled with simple, single-mode, disjoint photodetection--is capable of significantly beating the shot-noise limit. Our result implies a pathway forward to practical quantum metrology with readily available technology.
Effective Surfactants Blend Concentration Determination for O/W Emulsion Stabilization by Two Nonionic Surfactants by Simple Linear Regression.

PubMed

Hassan, A K

2015-01-01

In this work, O/W emulsion sets were prepared by using different concentrations of two nonionic surfactants. The two surfactants, tween 80(HLB=15.0) and span 80(HLB=4.3) were used in a fixed proportions equal to 0.55:0.45 respectively. HLB value of the surfactants blends were fixed at 10.185. The surfactants blend concentration is starting from 3% up to 19%. For each O/W emulsion set the conductivity was measured at room temperature (25±2°), 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80°. Applying the simple linear regression least squares method statistical analysis to the temperature-conductivity obtained data determines the effective surfactants blend concentration required for preparing the most stable O/W emulsion. These results were confirmed by applying the physical stability centrifugation testing and the phase inversion temperature range measurements. The results indicated that, the relation which represents the most stable O/W emulsion has the strongest direct linear relationship between temperature and conductivity. This relationship is linear up to 80°. This work proves that, the most stable O/W emulsion is determined via the determination of the maximum R² value by applying of the simple linear regression least squares method to the temperature-conductivity obtained data up to 80°, in addition to, the true maximum slope is represented by the equation which has the maximum R² value. Because the conditions would be changed in a more complex formulation, the method of the determination of the effective surfactants blend concentration was verified by applying it for more complex formulations of 2% O/W miconazole nitrate cream and the results indicate its reproducibility.
Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1999-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming.
Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Phillips-Howard, Penelope A.; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Hamel, Mary; Ackers, Marta; van Eijk, Anne M.; Orimba, Vincent; Hoog, Anja van’t; Beynon, Caryl; Vulule, John; Bellis, Mark A.; Slutsker, Laurence; deCock, Kevin; Breiman, Robert; Laserson, Kayla F.

2012-01-01

Background Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required. Methods and Findings This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ2 for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ2 for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death. Conclusions This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender. PMID:23144796
Mountain plover population responses to black-tailed prairie dogs in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2005-01-01

We studied a local population of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, from 1995 to 2000 to estimate annual rates of recruitment rate (f) and population change (??). We used Pradel models, and we modeled ?? as a constant across years, as a linear time trend, as year-specific, and with an additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We modeled recruitment rate (f) as a function of area occupied by prairie dogs with the remaining model structure identical to the best model used to estimate ??. Our results indicated a strong negative effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on both ?? (slope coefficient on a log scale was -0.11; 95% CI was -0.17, -0.05) and f (slope coefficient on a logit scale was -0.23; 95% CI was -0.36, -0.10). We also found good evidence for a negative time trend on ??; this model had substantial weight (wi = 0.31), and the slope coefficient on the linear trend on a log scale was -0.10 (95% CI was -0.15, -0.05). Yearly estimates of ?? were >1 in all years except 1999, indicating that the population initially increased and then stabilized in the last year of the study. We found weak evidence for year-specific estimates of ??; the best model with year-specific estimates had a low weight (wi = 0.02), although the pattern of yearly estimates of ?? closely matched those estimated with a linear time trend. In southern Phillips County, the population trend of mountain plovers closely matched the trend in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs declined sharply in the mid-1990s in response to an outbreak of sylvatic plague, but their numbers have steadily increased since 1996 in concert with increases in plovers. The results of this study (1) increase our understanding of the dynamics of this population and how they relate to the area occupied by prairie dogs, and (2) will be useful for planning plover conservation in a prairie dog ecosystem.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Trend Accuracy

PubMed Central

Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J. Geoffrey

2014-01-01

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. PMID:24876437
Linear Regression Quantile Mapping (RQM) - A new approach to bias correction with consistent quantile trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passow, Christian; Donner, Reik

2017-04-01

Quantile mapping (QM) is an established concept that allows to correct systematic biases in multiple quantiles of the distribution of a climatic observable. It shows remarkable results in correcting biases in historical simulations through observational data and outperforms simpler correction methods which relate only to the mean or variance. Since it has been shown that bias correction of future predictions or scenario runs with basic QM can result in misleading trends in the projection, adjusted, trend preserving, versions of QM were introduced in the form of detrended quantile mapping (DQM) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) (Cannon, 2015, 2016). Still, all previous versions and applications of QM based bias correction rely on the assumption of time-independent quantiles over the investigated period, which can be misleading in the context of a changing climate. Here, we propose a novel combination of linear quantile regression (QR) with the classical QM method to introduce a consistent, time-dependent and trend preserving approach of bias correction for historical and future projections. Since QR is a regression method, it is possible to estimate quantiles in the same resolution as the given data and include trends or other dependencies. We demonstrate the performance of the new method of linear regression quantile mapping (RQM) in correcting biases of temperature and precipitation products from historical runs (1959 - 2005) of the COSMO model in climate mode (CCLM) from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble relative to gridded E-OBS data of the same spatial and temporal resolution. A thorough comparison with established bias correction methods highlights the strengths and potential weaknesses of the new RQM approach. References: A.J. Cannon, S.R. Sorbie, T.Q. Murdock: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping - How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes? Journal of Climate, 28, 6038, 2015 A.J. Cannon: Multivariate Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs - Matching Marginal Distributions and Inter-variable Dependence Structure. Journal of Climate, 29, 7045, 2016
Length-dependent thermal transport in one-dimensional self-assembly of planar π-conjugated molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Hao; Xiong, Yucheng; Zu, Fengshuo; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Xiaomeng; Fu, Qiang; Jie, Jiansheng; Yang, Juekuan; Xu, Dongyan

2016-06-01

This work reports a thermal transport study in quasi-one-dimensional organic nanostructures self-assembled from conjugated planar molecules via π-π interactions. Thermal resistances of single crystalline copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) and perylenetetracarboxylic diimide (PTCDI) nanoribbons are measured via a suspended thermal bridge method. We experimentally observed the deviation from the linear length dependence for the thermal resistance of single crystalline β-phase CuPc nanoribbons, indicating possible subdiffusion thermal transport. Interestingly, a gradual transition to the linear length dependence is observed with the increase of the lateral dimensions of CuPc nanoribbons. The measured thermal resistance of single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons shows an increasing trend with temperature. However, the trend of temperature dependence of thermal resistance is reversed after electron irradiation, i.e., decreasing with temperature, indicating that the single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons become `amorphous'. Similar behavior is also observed for PTCDI nanoribbons after electron irradiation, proving that the electron beam can induce amorphization of single crystalline self-assembled nanostructures of planar π-conjugated molecules. The measured thermal resistance of the `amorphous' CuPc nanoribbon demonstrates a roughly linear dependence on the nanoribbon length, suggesting that normal diffusion dominates thermal transport.This work reports a thermal transport study in quasi-one-dimensional organic nanostructures self-assembled from conjugated planar molecules via π-π interactions. Thermal resistances of single crystalline copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) and perylenetetracarboxylic diimide (PTCDI) nanoribbons are measured via a suspended thermal bridge method. We experimentally observed the deviation from the linear length dependence for the thermal resistance of single crystalline β-phase CuPc nanoribbons, indicating possible subdiffusion thermal transport. Interestingly, a gradual transition to the linear length dependence is observed with the increase of the lateral dimensions of CuPc nanoribbons. The measured thermal resistance of single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons shows an increasing trend with temperature. However, the trend of temperature dependence of thermal resistance is reversed after electron irradiation, i.e., decreasing with temperature, indicating that the single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons become `amorphous'. Similar behavior is also observed for PTCDI nanoribbons after electron irradiation, proving that the electron beam can induce amorphization of single crystalline self-assembled nanostructures of planar π-conjugated molecules. The measured thermal resistance of the `amorphous' CuPc nanoribbon demonstrates a roughly linear dependence on the nanoribbon length, suggesting that normal diffusion dominates thermal transport. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr09043a
Analytical Tools Interface for Landscape Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental management practices are trending away from simple, local-scale assessments toward complex, multiple-stressor regional assessments. Landscape ecology provides the theory behind these assessments while geographic information systems (GIS) supply the tools to implemen...
The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.
Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

1999-03-01

Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.
Models for forecasting hospital bed requirements in the acute sector.

PubMed Central

Farmer, R D; Emami, J

1990-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to evaluate the current approach to forecasting hospital bed requirements. DESIGN--The study was a time series and regression analysis. The time series for mean duration of stay for general surgery in the age group 15-44 years (1969-1982) was used in the evaluation of different methods of forecasting future values of mean duration of stay and its subsequent use in the formation of hospital bed requirements. RESULTS--It has been suggested that the simple trend fitting approach suffers from model specification error and imposes unjustified restrictions on the data. Time series approach (Box-Jenkins method) was shown to be a more appropriate way of modelling the data. CONCLUSION--The simple trend fitting approach is inferior to the time series approach in modelling hospital bed requirements. PMID:2277253
Trends in Simple Prostatectomy for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia.

PubMed

Pariser, Joseph J; Packiam, Vignesh T; Adamsky, Melanie A; Bales, Gregory T

2016-08-01

The definitive treatment for symptomatic large volume (>80 mL) benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is simple prostatectomy (SP). This can be performed by utilizing a retropubic, suprapubic, or a combined approach. The latter two approaches allow for the management of concomitant bladder diverticulum or stones through the same incision. Each approach affords unique technical strengths and weaknesses that must be considered in light of patient characteristics and concomitant pathology. SP allows for removal of the entire prostatic adenoma while obviating some of the neurovascular and continence issues that can arise from radical prostatectomy. Concerns with SP include its relatively high perioperative morbidity, notably bleeding. Therefore, there is increasing interest in less invasive options, including enucleation procedures and minimally invasive SP. This review presents an update regarding trends and outcomes of SP, as well as the effectiveness and popularity of alternative treatments.
Damage and strength of composite materials: Trends, predictions, and challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, T. Kevin

1994-01-01

Research on damage mechanisms and ultimate strength of composite materials relevant to scaling issues will be addressed in this viewgraph presentation. The use of fracture mechanics and Weibull statistics to predict scaling effects for the onset of isolated damage mechanisms will be highlighted. The ability of simple fracture mechanics models to predict trends that are useful in parametric or preliminary designs studies will be reviewed. The limitations of these simple models for complex loading conditions will also be noted. The difficulty in developing generic criteria for the growth of these mechanisms needed in progressive damage models to predict strength will be addressed. A specific example for a problem where failure is a direct consequence of progressive delamination will be explored. A damage threshold/fail-safety concept for addressing composite damage tolerance will be discussed.
Making chaotic behavior in a damped linear harmonic oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konishi, Keiji

2001-06-01

The present Letter proposes a simple control method which makes chaotic behavior in a damped linear harmonic oscillator. This method is a modified scheme proposed in paper by Wang and Chen (IEEE CAS-I 47 (2000) 410) which presents an anti-control method for making chaotic behavior in discrete-time linear systems. We provide a systematic procedure to design parameters and sampling period of a feedback controller. Furthermore, we show that our method works well on numerical simulations.
Advanced statistics: linear regression, part II: multiple linear regression.

PubMed

Marill, Keith A

2004-01-01

The applications of simple linear regression in medical research are limited, because in most situations, there are multiple relevant predictor variables. Univariate statistical techniques such as simple linear regression use a single predictor variable, and they often may be mathematically correct but clinically misleading. Multiple linear regression is a mathematical technique used to model the relationship between multiple independent predictor variables and a single dependent outcome variable. It is used in medical research to model observational data, as well as in diagnostic and therapeutic studies in which the outcome is dependent on more than one factor. Although the technique generally is limited to data that can be expressed with a linear function, it benefits from a well-developed mathematical framework that yields unique solutions and exact confidence intervals for regression coefficients. Building on Part I of this series, this article acquaints the reader with some of the important concepts in multiple regression analysis. These include multicollinearity, interaction effects, and an expansion of the discussion of inference testing, leverage, and variable transformations to multivariate models. Examples from the first article in this series are expanded on using a primarily graphic, rather than mathematical, approach. The importance of the relationships among the predictor variables and the dependence of the multivariate model coefficients on the choice of these variables are stressed. Finally, concepts in regression model building are discussed.
Chicken barn climate and hazardous volatile compounds control using simple linear regression and PID

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, A. H.; Bakar, M. A. A.; Shukor, S. A. A.; Saad, F. S. A.; Kamis, M. S.; Mustafa, M. H.; Khalid, N. S.

2016-07-01

The hazardous volatile compounds from chicken manure in chicken barn are potentially to be a health threat to the farm animals and workers. Ammonia (NH3) and hydrogen sulphide (H2S) produced in chicken barn are influenced by climate changes. The Electronic Nose (e-nose) is used for the barn's air, temperature and humidity data sampling. Simple Linear Regression is used to identify the correlation between temperature-humidity, humidity-ammonia and ammonia-hydrogen sulphide. MATLAB Simulink software was used for the sample data analysis using PID controller. Results shows that the performance of PID controller using the Ziegler-Nichols technique can improve the system controller to control climate in chicken barn.
Impulse measurement using an Arduíno

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espindola, P. R.; Cena, C. R.; Alves, D. C. B.; Bozano, D. F.; Goncalves, A. M. B.

2018-05-01

In this paper, we propose a simple experimental apparatus that can measure the force variation over time to study the impulse-momentum theorem. In this proposal, a body attached to a rubber string falls freely from rest until it stretches and changes the linear momentum. During that process the force due to the tension on the rubber string is measured with a load cell by using an Arduíno board. We check the instrumental results with the basic concept of impulse, finding the area under the force versus time curve and comparing this with the linear momentum variation estimated from software analysis. The apparatus is presented as a simple and low cost alternative to mechanical physics laboratories.
A simple white noise analysis of neuronal light responses.

PubMed

Chichilnisky, E J

2001-05-01

A white noise technique is presented for estimating the response properties of spiking visual system neurons. The technique is simple, robust, efficient and well suited to simultaneous recordings from multiple neurons. It provides a complete and easily interpretable model of light responses even for neurons that display a common form of response nonlinearity that precludes classical linear systems analysis. A theoretical justification of the technique is presented that relies only on elementary linear algebra and statistics. Implementation is described with examples. The technique and the underlying model of neural responses are validated using recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and in principle are applicable to other neurons. Advantages and disadvantages of the technique relative to classical approaches are discussed.
Introducing Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Reactions Using the Gillespie Algorithm and MATLAB: Revisited and Augmented

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Argoti, A.; Fan, L. T.; Cruz, J.; Chou, S. T.

2008-01-01

The stochastic simulation of chemical reactions, specifically, a simple reversible chemical reaction obeying the first-order, i.e., linear, rate law, has been presented by Martinez-Urreaga and his collaborators in this journal. The current contribution is intended to complement and augment their work in two aspects. First, the simple reversible…
Exploring Measurement Error with Cookies: A Real and Virtual Approach via Interactive Excel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinex, Scott A; Gage, Barbara A.; Beck, Peggy J.

2007-01-01

A simple, guided-inquiry investigation using stacked sandwich cookies is employed to develop a simple linear mathematical model and to explore measurement error by incorporating errors as part of the investigation. Both random and systematic errors are presented. The model and errors are then investigated further by engaging with an interactive…
An Anharmonic Solution to the Equation of Motion for the Simple Pendulum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johannessen, Kim

2011-01-01

An anharmonic solution to the differential equation describing the oscillations of a simple pendulum at large angles is discussed. The solution is expressed in terms of functions not involving the Jacobi elliptic functions. In the derivation, a sinusoidal expression, including a linear and a Fourier sine series in the argument, has been applied.…
The Double-Well Potential in Quantum Mechanics: A Simple, Numerically Exact Formulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jelic, V.; Marsiglio, F.

2012-01-01

The double-well potential is arguably one of the most important potentials in quantum mechanics, because the solution contains the notion of a state as a linear superposition of "classical" states, a concept which has become very important in quantum information theory. It is therefore desirable to have solutions to simple double-well potentials…
A Simple and Effective Protein Folding Activity Suitable for Large Lectures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Brian

2006-01-01

This article describes a simple and inexpensive hands-on simulation of protein folding suitable for use in large lecture classes. This activity uses a minimum of parts, tools, and skill to simulate some of the fundamental principles of protein folding. The major concepts targeted are that proteins begin as linear polypeptides and fold to…
Walking for Transportation or Leisure Among U.S. Women and Men - National Health Interview Survey, 2005-2015.

PubMed

Ussery, Emily N; Carlson, Susan A; Whitfield, Geoffrey P; Watson, Kathleen B; Berrigan, David; Fulton, Janet E

2017-06-30

Physical activity confers considerable health benefits, but only half of U.S. adults report participating in levels of aerobic physical activity consistent with guidelines (1,2). Step It Up! The Surgeon General's Call to Action to Promote Walking and Walkable Communities identified walking as an important public health strategy to increase physical activity levels (3). A previous report showed that the self-reported prevalence of walking for transportation or leisure increased by 6 percentage points from 2005 to 2010 (4), but it is unknown whether this increase has been sustained. CDC analyzed National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 2005 (26,551 respondents), 2010 (23,313), and 2015 (28,877) to evaluate trends in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported walking among adults aged ≥18 years. The prevalence of walking increased steadily among women, from 57.3% in 2005, to 62.5% in 2010, and to 65.1% in 2015 (significant linear trend). Among men, a significant linear increase in reported walking was observed, from 54.3% in 2005, to 61.8% in 2010, and to 62.8% in 2015, although the increase stalled between 2010 and 2015 (significant linear and quadratic trends). Community design policies and practices that encourage pedestrian activity and programs tailored to the needs of specific population subgroups remain important strategies for promoting walking (3).

Birth characteristics, maternal reproductive history, and the risk of infant leukemia: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Spector, Logan G; Davies, Stella M; Robison, Leslie L; Hilden, Joanne M; Roesler, Michelle; Ross, Julie A

2007-01-01

Leukemias with MLL gene rearrangements predominate in infants (<1 year of age), but not in older children, and may have a distinct etiology. High birth weight, higher birth order, and prior fetal loss have, with varying consistency, been associated with infant leukemia, but no studies have reported results with respect to MLL status. Here, we report for the first time such an analysis. During 1999 to 2003, mothers of 240 incident cases (113 MLL(+), 80 MLL(-), and 47 indeterminate) and 255 random digit dialed controls completed a telephone interview. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartile of birth weight, birth order, gestational age, maternal age at delivery, prior fetal loss, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and weight gain during pregnancy were obtained using unconditional logistic regression; P for linear trend was obtained by modeling continuous variables. There was a borderline significant linear trend of increasing birth weight with MLL(+) (P = 0.06), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.93), infant leukemia. Increasing birth order showed a significant inverse linear trend, independent of birth weight, with MLL(+) (P = 0.01), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.18), infant leukemia. Other variables of interest were not notably associated with infant leukemia regardless of MLL status. This investigation further supports the contention that molecularly defined subtypes of infant leukemia have separate etiologies.
NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.
Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1995-01-01

Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.
On the Impact of a Quadratic Acceleration Term in the Analysis of Position Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogusz, Janusz; Klos, Anna; Bos, Machiel Simon; Hunegnaw, Addisu; Teferle, Felix Norman

2016-04-01

The analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series generally assumes that each of the coordinate component series is described by the sum of a linear rate (velocity) and various periodic terms. The residuals, the deviations between the fitted model and the observations, are then a measure of the epoch-to-epoch scatter and have been used for the analysis of the stochastic character (noise) of the time series. Often the parameters of interest in GNSS position time series are the velocities and their associated uncertainties, which have to be determined with the highest reliability. It is clear that not all GNSS position time series follow this simple linear behaviour. Therefore, we have added an acceleration term in the form of a quadratic polynomial function to the model in order to better describe the non-linear motion in the position time series. This non-linear motion could be a response to purely geophysical processes, for example, elastic rebound of the Earth's crust due to ice mass loss in Greenland, artefacts due to deficiencies in bias mitigation models, for example, of the GNSS satellite and receiver antenna phase centres, or any combination thereof. In this study we have simulated 20 time series with different stochastic characteristics such as white, flicker or random walk noise of length of 23 years. The noise amplitude was assumed at 1 mm/y-/4. Then, we added the deterministic part consisting of a linear trend of 20 mm/y (that represents the averaged horizontal velocity) and accelerations ranging from minus 0.6 to plus 0.6 mm/y2. For all these data we estimated the noise parameters with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using the Hector software package without taken into account the non-linear term. In this way we set the benchmark to then investigate how the noise properties and velocity uncertainty may be affected by any un-modelled, non-linear term. The velocities and their uncertainties versus the accelerations for different types of noise are determined. Furthermore, we have selected 40 globally distributed stations that have a clear non-linear behaviour from two different International GNSS Service (IGS) analysis centers: JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and BLT (British Isles continuous GNSS Facility and University of Luxembourg Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring (TIGA) Analysis Center). We obtained maximum accelerations of -1.8±1.2 mm2/y and -4.5±3.3 mm2/y for the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. The noise analysis tests have shown that the addition of the non-linear term has significantly whitened the power spectra of the position time series, i.e. shifted the spectral index from flicker towards white noise.
Unmetabolized Folic Acid, Tetrahydrofolate, and Colorectal Adenoma Risk.

PubMed

Rees, Judy R; Morris, Carolyn B; Peacock, Janet L; Ueland, Per M; Barry, Elizabeth L; McKeown-Eyssen, Gail E; Figueiredo, Jane C; Snover, Dale C; Baron, John A

2017-08-01

In a randomized trial of folic acid supplementation for the prevention of colorectal adenomas, we previously found indications of increased risk during later treatment and follow-up. This could have been due to the unmetabolized folic acid (UFA) or natural reduced and methylated folates (mF) to which it is metabolized. In post hoc analyses, we measured mF (the sum of 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate and 4-alfa-hydroxy-5-methyl-THF) and UFA concentrations in the serum of 924 participants. Using binomial regression models with a log link, we assessed the associations between plasma mF or UFA and adenoma occurrence. We found no association between plasma mF or UFA and overall adenoma risk. However, during later follow-up, the prespecified, composite endpoint of high-risk findings (advanced or multiple adenomas) was positively associated with plasma mF ( P linear trend = 0.009), with a 58% increased risk for participants in the upper versus lowest quartile. An irregular association was seen with plasma UFA, with suggestions of an inverse trend ( P linear trend =0.049). A modest, significant inverse association was also seen between mF and risk of serrated lesions, with a 39% lower risk for upper versus lower quartile participants ( P linear trend = 0.03). In conclusion, during the later follow-up period in which folic acid supplementation was previously seen to increase the risk of advanced and multiple adenomas, higher serum mF was associated with a higher risk of multiple and/or advanced adenomas, but no clear indication that UFA played a direct role. There were indications that higher mF was associated with reduced risk of serrated polyps. Cancer Prev Res; 10(8); 451-8. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.
Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

1997-01-01

Following the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5-km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short-term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right-lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault-normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4-year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right-lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right-lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault-normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.
Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.
Simple Expressions for the Design of Linear Tapers in Overmoded Corrugated Waveguides

DOE PAGES

Schaub, S. C.; Shapiro, M. A.; Temkin, R. J.

2015-08-16

In this paper, simple analytical formulae are presented for the design of linear tapers with very low mode conversion loss in overmoded corrugated waveguides. For tapers from waveguide radius a2 to a1, with a11a 2/λ. Here, λ is the wavelength of radiation. The fractional loss of the HE 11 mode in an optimized taper is 0.0293(a 2-a 1) 4/amore » $$2\\atop{1}$$1a$$2\\atop{2}$$. These formulae are accurate when a2≲2a 1. Slightly more complex formulae, accurate for a 2≤4a 1, are also presented in this paper. The loss in an overmoded corrugated linear taper is less than 1 % when a 2≤2.12a 1 and less than 0.1 % when a 2≤1.53a 1. The present analytic results have been benchmarked against a rigorous mode matching code and have been found to be very accurate. The results for linear tapers are compared with the analogous expressions for parabolic tapers. Finally, parabolic tapers may provide lower loss, but linear tapers with moderate values of a 2/a 1 may be attractive because of their simplicity of fabrication.« less
A Comparative Analysis between GIMSS NDVIg and NDVI3g for Monitoring Vegetation Activity Change in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2008

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Nan; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao; ...

2013-08-12

The long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data set generated from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) has been widely used to monitor vegetation activity change. The third version of NDVI (NDVI3g) produced by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group was released recently. The comparisons between the new and old versions should be conducted for linking existing studies with future applications of NDVI3g in monitoring vegetation activity change. Based on simple and piecewise linear regression methods, this research made a comparative analysis between NDVIg and NDVI3g for monitoring vegetation activity change and its responses tomore » climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1982–2008. Our results indicated that there were large differences between NDVIg and NDVI3g in the spatial patterns for both the overall changing trends and the timing of Turning Points (TP) in NDVI time series, which spread over almost the entire study region. The average NDVI trend from NDVI3g was almost twice as great as that from NDVIg and the detected average timing of TP from NDVI3g was about one year later. Although the general spatial patterns were consistent between two data sets for detecting the responses of growing-season NDVI to temperature and precipitation changes, there were large differences in the response magnitude, with a higher response magnitude to temperature in NDVI3g and an opposite response to precipitation change for the two data sets. Finally, these results demonstrated that the NDVIg data set may underestimate the vegetation activity change trend and its response to climate change in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the past three decades.« less
Analyses of GIMMS NDVI Time Series in Kogi State, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palka, Jessica; Wessollek, Christine; Karrasch, Pierre

2017-10-01

The value of remote sensing data is particularly evident where an areal monitoring is needed to provide information on the earth's surface development. The use of temporal high resolution time series data allows for detecting short-term changes. In Kogi State in Nigeria different vegetation types can be found. As the major population in this region is living in rural communities with crop farming the existing vegetation is slowly being altered. The expansion of agricultural land causes loss of natural vegetation, especially in the regions close to the rivers which are suitable for crop production. With regard to these facts, two questions can be dealt with covering different aspects of the development of vegetation in the Kogi state, the determination and evaluation of the general development of the vegetation in the study area (trend estimation) and analyses on a short-term behavior of vegetation conditions, which can provide information about seasonal effects in vegetation development. For this purpose, the GIMMS-NDVI data set, provided by the NOAA, provides information on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a geometric resolution of approx. 8 km. The temporal resolution of 15 days allows the already described analyses. For the presented analysis data for the period 1981-2012 (31 years) were used. The implemented workflow mainly applies methods of time series analysis. The results show that in addition to the classical seasonal development, artefacts of different vegetation periods (several NDVI maxima) can be found in the data. The trend component of the time series shows a consistently positive development in the entire study area considering the full investigation period of 31 years. However, the results also show that this development has not been continuous and a simple linear modeling of the NDVI increase is only possible to a limited extent. For this reason, the trend modeling was extended by procedures for detecting structural breaks in the time series.
[The trends by province of tuberculosis in Cuba: 1979-1993].

PubMed

González Ochoa, E; Armas Pérez, L; Machín Gelaber, A

1995-11-01

This study was carried out in order to describe tuberculosis trends in Cuba and its provinces between 1979 and 1993. For this purpose, reports of new cases of all forms of tuberculosis were obtained from the National Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Public Health. In addition, tuberculosis incidence rates and their trends between 1979 and 1992 were determined. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear and exponential regression models. Finally, the percentage reductions in incidence between 1979 and 1992 were calculated and the observed changes were described in reference to the expected values derived from the regression models. The number of new tuberculosis cases reported in Cuba decreased from 1133 (11.6 per 100,000 population) in 1979 to 633 (5.8 per 100,000) in 1992 (a 44% reduction). In 1993, 788 cases were reported (7.2 per 100,000). In almost all the provinces the incidence tended to decrease between 1979 and 1992, and the average annual number of new case notifications fell between 4.0 and 5.4%, although in some, less than 3%. In 1992, the number of new case notifications in the country was 25% higher than in 1991, and the incidence rates in all the provinces were higher than expected. The incidence in La Habana, the City of Havana, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Ciego de Avila, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantánamo exceeded the overall national incidence. In 1993, incidence in the country was 55.6% higher than it had been in 1991 and 24.5% higher than in 1992. Incidence rose in all provinces, and especially in the City of Havana, Matanzas, and Guantánamo. Although incidence remained below 8 cases per 100,000 population between 1992 and 1993, it rose during those years, as it did in other countries. The increase appears to be attributable to the economic crisis that affects the country and to have very little connection to human immunodeficiency virus infection.
Vulnerabilities of Local Healthcare Providers in Complex Emergencies: Findings from the Manipur Micro-level Insurgency Database 2008-2009.

PubMed

Sinha, Samrat; David, Siddarth; Gerdin, Martin; Roy, Nobhojit

2013-04-24

Research on healthcare delivery in zones of conflict requires sustained and systematic attention. In the context of the South Asian region, there has been an absence of research on the vulnerabilities of health care workers and institutions in areas affected by armed conflict. The paper presents a case study of the varied nature of security challenges faced by local healthcare providers in the state of Manipur in the North-eastern region of India, located in the Indo-Myanmar frontier region which has been experiencing armed violence and civil strife since the late 1960s. . The aim of this study was to assess longitudinal and spatial trends in incidents involving health care workers in Manipur during the period 2008 to 2009. We conducted a retrospective database analysis of the Manipur Micro-level Insurgency Database 2008-2009, created by using local newspaper archives to measure the overall burden of violence experienced in the state over a two year period. Publicly available press releases of armed groups and local hospitals in the state were used to supplement the quantitative data. Simple linear regression was used to assess longitudinal trends. Data was visualized with GIS-software for spatial analysis. The mean proportion of incidents involving health care workers per month was 2.7% and ranged between 0 and 6.1% (table 2). There was a significant (P=0.037) month-to-month variation in the proportion of incidents involving health care workers, as well as a upward trend of about 0.11% per month. Spatial analysis revealed different patterns depending on whether absolute, population-adjusted, or incident-adjusted frequencies served as the basis of the analysis. The paper shows a small but steady rise in violence against health workers and health institutions impeding health services in Manipur's pervasive violence. More evidence-building backed by research along with institutional obligations and commitment is essential to protect the health-systems Keywords: India, Manipur, insurgency, healthcare, security, ethnic strife.
A Demonstration of an Improved Filtering Technique for Analyzing Climate Records via Comparisons of Satellite MSU/AMSU Instrument Temperature Products from Three Research Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, R. E.

2017-12-01

Climate data records typically exhibit considerable variation over short time scales both from natural variability and from instrumentation issues. The use of linear least squares regression can provide overall trend information from noisy data, however assessing intermediate time periods can also provide useful information unavailable from basic trend calculations. Extracting the short term information in these data for assessing changes to climate or for comparison of data series from different sources requires the application of filters to separate short period variations from longer period trends. A common method used to smooth data is the moving average, which is a simple digital filter that can distort the resulting series due to the aliasing of the sampling period into the output series. We utilized Hamming filters to compare MSU/AMSU satellite time series developed by three research groups (UAH, RSS and NOAA STAR), the results published in January 2017 [http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121.1]. Since the last release date (July 2016) for the data analyzed in that paper, some of these groups have updated their analytical procedures and additional months of data are available to extend the series. An updated analysis of these data using the latest data releases available from each group is to be presented. Improved graphics will be employed to provide a clearer visualization of the differences between each group's results. As in the previous paper, the greatest difference between the UAH TMT series and those from the RSS and NOAA data appears during the early period of data from the MSU instruments before about 2003, as shown in the attached figure, and preliminary results indicate this pattern continues. Also to be presented are other findings regarding seasonal changes which were not included in the previous study.
Unsteady transonic flows - Introduction, current trends, applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yates, E. C., Jr.

1985-01-01

The computational treatment of unsteady transonic flows is discussed, reviewing the historical development and current techniques. The fundamental physical principles are outlined; the governing equations are introduced; three-dimensional linearized and two-dimensional linear-perturbation theories in frequency domain are described in detail; and consideration is given to frequency-domain FEMs and time-domain finite-difference and integral-equation methods. Extensive graphs and diagrams are included.
A Vernacular for Linear Latent Growth Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hancock, Gregory R.; Choi, Jaehwa

2006-01-01

In its most basic form, latent growth modeling (latent curve analysis) allows an assessment of individuals' change in a measured variable X over time. For simple linear models, as with other growth models, parameter estimates associated with the a construct (amount of X at a chosen temporal reference point) and b construct (growth in X per unit…
The Development of a High Speed Exponential Function Generator for Linearization of Microwave Voltage Controlled Oscillators.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-10-01

characteristic of a p-n junction to provide exponential linearization in a simple, thermally-stable, wide band circuit. RESME Les oscillateurs A...exponentielle (fr6quence/tension) que V’on 1 retrouve chez plusieurs oscillateurs . Ce circuit, d’une grande largeur de bande, utilise la caractfiristique
The Pendulum: A Paradigm for the Linear Oscillator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newburgh, Ronald

2004-01-01

The simple pendulum is a model for the linear oscillator. The usual mathematical treatment of the problem begins with a differential equation that one solves with the techniques of the differential calculus, a formal process that tends to obscure the physics. In this paper we begin with a kinematic description of the motion obtained by experiment…
Detections of Long Carbon Chains CH_{3}CCCCH, C_{6}H, LINEAR-C_{6}H_{2} and C_{7}H in the Low-Mass Star Forming Region L1527

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araki, Mitsunori; Takano, Shuro; Sakai, Nami; Yamamoto, Satoshi; Oyama, Takahiro; Kuze, Nobuhiko; Tsukiyama, Koichi

2017-06-01

Carbon chains in the warm carbon chain chemistry (WCCC) region has been searched in the 42-44 GHz region by using Green Bank 100 m telescope. Long carbon chains C_{7}H, C_{6}H, CH_{3}CCCCH, and linear-C_{6}H_{2} and cyclic species C_{3}H and C_{3}H_{2}O have been detected in the low-mass star forming region L1527, performing the WCCC. C_{7}H was detected for the first time in molecular clouds. The column density of C_{7}H is derived to be 6.2 × 10^{10} cm^{-2} by using the detected J = 24.5-23.5 and 25.5-24.5 rotational lines. The ^{2}Π_{1/2} electronic state of C_{6}H, locating 21.6 K above the ^{2}Π_{3/2} electronic ground state, and the K_a = 0 line of the para species of linear-C_{6}H_{2} were also detected firstly in molecular clouds. The column densities of the ^{2}Π_{1/2} and ^{2}Π_{3/2} states of C_{6}H in L1527 were derived to be 1.6 × 10^{11} and 1.1 × 10^{12} cm^{-2}, respectively. The total column density of linear-C_{6}H_{2} is obtained to be 1.86 × 10^{11} cm^{-2}. While the abundance ratios of carbon chains in between L1527 and the starless dark cloud Taurus Molecular Cloud-1 Cyanopolyyne Peak (TMC-1 CP) have a trend of decrease by extension of carbon-chain length, column densities of CH_{3}CCCCH and C_{6}H are on the trend. However, the column densities of linear-C_{6}H_{2}, and C_{7}H are as abundant as those of TMC-1 CP in spite of long carbon chain, i.e., they are not on the trend. The abundances of linear-C_{6}H_{2} and C_{7}H show that L1527 is rich for long carbon chains as well as TMC-1 CP.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dubrovsky, V. G.; Topovsky, A. V.

New exact solutions, nonstationary and stationary, of Veselov-Novikov (VN) equation in the forms of simple nonlinear and linear superpositions of arbitrary number N of exact special solutions u{sup (n)}, n= 1, Horizontal-Ellipsis , N are constructed via Zakharov and Manakov {partial_derivative}-dressing method. Simple nonlinear superpositions are represented up to a constant by the sums of solutions u{sup (n)} and calculated by {partial_derivative}-dressing on nonzero energy level of the first auxiliary linear problem, i.e., 2D stationary Schroedinger equation. It is remarkable that in the zero energy limit simple nonlinear superpositions convert to linear ones in the form of the sums ofmore » special solutions u{sup (n)}. It is shown that the sums u=u{sup (k{sub 1})}+...+u{sup (k{sub m})}, 1 Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To k{sub 1} < k{sub 2} < Horizontal-Ellipsis < k{sub m} Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To N of arbitrary subsets of these solutions are also exact solutions of VN equation. The presented exact solutions include as superpositions of special line solitons and also superpositions of plane wave type singular periodic solutions. By construction these exact solutions represent also new exact transparent potentials of 2D stationary Schroedinger equation and can serve as model potentials for electrons in planar structures of modern electronics.« less
A simple method for HPLC retention time prediction: linear calibration using two reference substances.

PubMed

Sun, Lei; Jin, Hong-Yu; Tian, Run-Tao; Wang, Ming-Juan; Liu, Li-Na; Ye, Liu-Ping; Zuo, Tian-Tian; Ma, Shuang-Cheng

2017-01-01

Analysis of related substances in pharmaceutical chemicals and multi-components in traditional Chinese medicines needs bulk of reference substances to identify the chromatographic peaks accurately. But the reference substances are costly. Thus, the relative retention (RR) method has been widely adopted in pharmacopoeias and literatures for characterizing HPLC behaviors of those reference substances unavailable. The problem is it is difficult to reproduce the RR on different columns due to the error between measured retention time (t R ) and predicted t R in some cases. Therefore, it is useful to develop an alternative and simple method for prediction of t R accurately. In the present study, based on the thermodynamic theory of HPLC, a method named linear calibration using two reference substances (LCTRS) was proposed. The method includes three steps, procedure of two points prediction, procedure of validation by multiple points regression and sequential matching. The t R of compounds on a HPLC column can be calculated by standard retention time and linear relationship. The method was validated in two medicines on 30 columns. It was demonstrated that, LCTRS method is simple, but more accurate and more robust on different HPLC columns than RR method. Hence quality standards using LCTRS method are easy to reproduce in different laboratories with lower cost of reference substances.

Epileptic seizure prediction by non-linear methods

DOEpatents

Hively, L.M.; Clapp, N.E.; Day, C.S.; Lawkins, W.F.

1999-01-12

This research discloses methods and apparatus for automatically predicting epileptic seizures monitor and analyze brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis tools; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; comparison of the trend to known seizure predictors; and providing notification that a seizure is forthcoming. 76 figs.
Trends in the components of extreme water levels signal a rotation of winds in strong storms in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The water level time series and particularly temporal variations in water level extremes usually do not follow any simple rule. Still, the analysis of linear trends in extreme values of surge levels is a convenient tool to obtain a first approximation of the future projections of the risks associated with coastal floodings. We demonstrate how this tool can be used to extract essential information about concealed changes in the forcing factors of seas and oceans. A specific feature of the Baltic Sea is that sequences of even moderate storms may raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events occur once in a few years. They substantially contribute to the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea: the most devastating coastal floodings occur when a strong storm from unfortunate direction arrives during such an event. We focus on the separation of subtidal (weekly-scale) processes from those which are caused by a single storm and on establishing how much these two kinds of events have contributed to the increase in the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea. The analysis relies on numerically reconstructed sea levels produced by the RCO (Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) ocean model for 1961-2005. The reaction of sea surface to single storm events is isolated from the local water level time series using a running average over a fixed interval. The distribution of average water levels has an almost Gaussian shape for averaging lengths from a few days to a few months. The residual (total water level minus the average) can be interpreted as a proxy of the local storm surges. Interestingly, for the 8-day average this residual almost exactly follows the exponential distribution. Therefore, for this averaging length the heights of local storm surges reflect an underlying Poisson process. This feature is universal for the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. The slopes of the exponential distribution for low and high water levels are different, vary markedly along the coast and provide a useful quantification of the vulnerability of single coastal segments with respect to coastal flooding. The formal linear trends in the extreme values of these water level components exhibit radically different spatial variations. The slopes of the trends in the weekly average are almost constant (~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average) along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. This first of all indicates that the duration of storm sequences has increased. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level extremes. Their slopes are almost zero at the open Baltic Proper coasts of the Western Estonian archipelago. Therefore, an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area. In contrast, the slopes in question reach 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This feature suggests that wind direction in strongest storms may have rotated in the northern Baltic Sea.
Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Climate variability, vulnerability, and coping mechanism in Alaknanda catchment, Central Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Kireet; Joshi, Sneh; Joshi, Varun

2008-06-01

A study was carried out to discover trends in the rainfall and temperature pattern of the Alaknanda catchment in the Central Himalaya. Data on the annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall for the last decade, and average annual temperatures over the last few decades were analyzed. Nonparametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method) were employed to identify trends. The Mann-Kendall test shows a decline in rainfall and rise in temperature, and these trends were found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for both transects. Sen's method also confirms this trend. This aspect has to be considered seriously for the simple reason that if the same trend continues in the future, more chances of drought are expected. The impact of climate change has been well perceived by the people of the catchment, and a coping mechanism has been developed at the local level.
Measuring trends of outpatient antibiotic use in Europe: jointly modelling longitudinal data in defined daily doses and packages.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Goossens, Herman; Molenberghs, Geert; Coenen, Samuel

2014-07-01

To complement analyses of the linear trend and seasonal fluctuation of European outpatient antibiotic use expressed in defined daily doses (DDD) by analyses of data in packages, to assess the agreement between both measures and to study changes in the number of DDD per package over time. Data on outpatient antibiotic use, aggregated at the level of the active substance (WHO version 2011) were collected from 2000 to 2007 for 31 countries and expressed in DDD and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID and PID, respectively). Data expressed in DID and PID were analysed separately using non-linear mixed models while the agreement between these measurements was analysed through a joint non-linear mixed model. The change in DDD per package over time was studied with a linear mixed model. Total outpatient antibiotic and penicillin use in Europe and their seasonal fluctuation significantly increased in DID, but not in PID. The use of combinations of penicillins significantly increased in DID and in PID. Broad-spectrum penicillin use did not increase significantly in DID and decreased significantly in PID. For all but one subgroup, country-specific deviations moved in the same direction whether measured in DID or PID. The correlations are not perfect. The DDD per package increased significantly over time for all but one subgroup. Outpatient antibiotic use in Europe shows contrasting trends, depending on whether DID or PID is used as the measure. The increase of the DDD per package corroborates the recommendation to adopt PID to monitor outpatient antibiotic use in Europe. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.
Improvements in Spectrum's fit to program data tool.

PubMed

Mahiane, Severin G; Marsh, Kimberly; Grantham, Kelsey; Crichlow, Shawna; Caceres, Karen; Stover, John

2017-04-01

The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package (Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA) is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with program and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or people living with HIV and AIDS related deaths. This article describes development and application of the fit to program data (FPD) tool in Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS' 2016 estimates round. In the FPD tool, HIV incidence trends are described as a simple or double logistic function. Function parameters are estimated from historical program data on newly reported HIV cases, people living with HIV or AIDS-related deaths. Inputs can be adjusted for proportions undiagnosed or misclassified deaths. Maximum likelihood estimation or minimum chi-squared distance methods are used to identify the best fitting curve. Asymptotic properties of the estimators from these fits are used to estimate uncertainty. The FPD tool was used to fit incidence for 62 countries in 2016. Maximum likelihood and minimum chi-squared distance methods gave similar results. A double logistic curve adequately described observed trends in all but four countries where a simple logistic curve performed better. Robust HIV-related program and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries, whereas HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, the FPD tool offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating HIV incidence trends.
Portfolio optimization using fuzzy linear programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandit, Purnima K.

2013-09-01

Portfolio Optimization (PO) is a problem in Finance, in which investor tries to maximize return and minimize risk by carefully choosing different assets. Expected return and risk are the most important parameters with regard to optimal portfolios. In the simple form PO can be modeled as quadratic programming problem which can be put into equivalent linear form. PO problems with the fuzzy parameters can be solved as multi-objective fuzzy linear programming problem. In this paper we give the solution to such problems with an illustrative example.
On the Stability of Jump-Linear Systems Driven by Finite-State Machines with Markovian Inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patilkulkarni, Sudarshan; Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Gray, W. Steven; Gonzalez, Oscar R.

2004-01-01

This paper presents two mean-square stability tests for a jump-linear system driven by a finite-state machine with a first-order Markovian input process. The first test is based on conventional Markov jump-linear theory and avoids the use of any higher-order statistics. The second test is developed directly using the higher-order statistics of the machine s output process. The two approaches are illustrated with a simple model for a recoverable computer control system.
A Maple package for computing Gröbner bases for linear recurrence relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerdt, Vladimir P.; Robertz, Daniel

2006-04-01

A Maple package for computing Gröbner bases of linear difference ideals is described. The underlying algorithm is based on Janet and Janet-like monomial divisions associated with finite difference operators. The package can be used, for example, for automatic generation of difference schemes for linear partial differential equations and for reduction of multiloop Feynman integrals. These two possible applications are illustrated by simple examples of the Laplace equation and a one-loop scalar integral of propagator type.
Reliability Analysis of the Gradual Degradation of Semiconductor Devices.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-20

under the heading of linear models or linear statistical models . 3 ,4 We have not used this material in this report. Assuming catastrophic failure when...assuming a catastrophic model . In this treatment we first modify our system loss formula and then proceed to the actual analysis. II. ANALYSIS OF...Failure Time 1 Ti Ti 2 T2 T2 n Tn n and are easily analyzed by simple linear regression. Since we have assumed a log normal/Arrhenius activation
Fall in homicides in the City of São Paulo: an exploratory analysis of possible determinants

PubMed Central

Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; de Almeida, Juliana Feliciano; Vicentin, Diego; Cerda, Magdalena; Cardia, Nancy; Adorno, Sérgio

2012-01-01

Throughout the first decade of the 2000s the homicide mortality rate (HMR) showed a significant reduction in the state and the city of São Paulo (MSP). The aim of this study is to describe the trend of HMR, socio-demographic indicators, and the investment in social and public security, and to analyze the correlation between HMR and independent variables in the MSP between 1996 and 2008. An exploratory time series ecological study was conducted. The following variables were included: HMR per 100,000 inhabitants, socio-demographic indicators, and investments in social and public security. The moving-averages for all variables were calculated and trends were analyzed through Simple Linear Regression models. Annual percentage changes, the average annual change and periodic percentage changes were calculated for all variables, and the associations between annual percentage changes were tested by Spearman’s correlation analysis. Correlations were found for the proportion of youth in the population (r = 0.69), unemployment rate (r = 0.60), State budget for education and culture (r = 0.87) and health and sanitation (r = 0.56), municipal (r = 0.68) and State (r = 0.53) budget for Public Security, firearms seized (r = 0.69) and the incarceration rate (r = 0.71). The results allow us to support the hypothesis that demographic changes, acceleration of the economy, in particular the fall in unemployment, investment in social policies and changes in public security policies act synergistically to reduce HMR in São Paulo. Complex models of analysis, incorporating the joint action of different potential explanatory variables, should be developed. PMID:22218669
Plant allometry, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus stoichiometry, and interspecific trends in annual growth rates.

PubMed

Niklas, Karl J

2006-02-01

Life forms as diverse as unicellular algae, zooplankton, vascular plants, and mammals appear to obey quarter-power scaling rules. Among the most famous of these rules is Kleiber's (i.e. basal metabolic rates scale as the three-quarters power of body mass), which has a botanical analogue (i.e. annual plant growth rates scale as the three-quarters power of total body mass). Numerous theories have tried to explain why these rules exist, but each has been heavily criticized either on conceptual or empirical grounds. N,P-STOICHIOMETRY: Recent models predicting growth rates on the basis of how total cell, tissue, or organism nitrogen and phosphorus are allocated, respectively, to protein and rRNA contents may provide the answer, particularly in light of the observation that annual plant growth rates scale linearly with respect to standing leaf mass and that total leaf mass scales isometrically with respect to nitrogen but as the three-quarters power of leaf phosphorus. For example, when these relationships are juxtaposed with other allometric trends, a simple N,P-stoichiometric model successfully predicts the relative growth rates of 131 diverse C3 and C4 species. The melding of allometric and N,P-stoichiometric theoretical insights provides a robust modelling approach that conceptually links the subcellular 'machinery' of protein/ribosomal metabolism to observed growth rates of uni- and multicellular organisms. Because the operation of this 'machinery' is basic to the biology of all life forms, its allometry may provide a mechanistic explanation for the apparent ubiquity of quarter-power scaling rules.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Foy, Benjamin; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been estimating NO2 columns from space for over 10 years, and these have been used to estimate emissions and emission trends for point and area sources all over the world. In this study we evaluate the trends in NO2 columns over 54 cities in the USA and Canada to identify the long term trends due to air quality policies, the impact of the Great Recession, and the weekday-weekend effect. A multiple linear regression model is used to fit annual, seasonal and weekly factors for individual swath retrievals along with the impact of temperature, windmore » speed and pixel size. For most cities, the correlation coefficients of the model fit ranges from 0.47 to 0.76. There have been strong reductions in NO2 columns, with annual decreases of up to 7% per year in most cities. During the years of the Great Recession, NO2 columns were as much as 30% lower than they would have been had they followed the linear annual trend. The analysis yielded insights into the timing of the reductions, with some cities in the northwest and in the east experiencing reductions in 2008 already, and most areas back to where they would have been based on the uniform trend by 2011. The analysis also finds that reductions in columns during the weekend vary significantly from city to city, with a range in reductions of 10%-30% on Saturdays, and 20%-50% on Sundays.« less
Trends in exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements over the Internet, in newspapers/magazines, and at retail stores among U.S. middle and high school students, 2000-2012.

PubMed

Agaku, Israel T; King, Brian A; Dube, Shanta R

2014-01-01

Most tobacco use begins during youth. Thus, this study assessed the prevalence, trends, and correlates of pro-tobacco advertising among United States students in grades 6-12 during 2000-2012. Data from the 2000-2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey were analyzed to assess self-reported exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements through three media: over the Internet, in newspapers/magazines, and at retail stores. Trends during 2000-2012 were assessed in a binary logistic regression model (P<0.05). Among all middle and high school students, the overall prevalence of exposure to Internet pro-tobacco advertisements increased from 22.3% to 43.0% during 2000-2012 (P<0.001 for linear trend). During the same period, declines were observed in the overall prevalence of exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements in newspapers/magazines (65.0% to 36.9%) and at retail stores (87.8% to 76.2%) (P<0.001 for all linear trends). Exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements over the Internet increased significantly during 2000-2012 among United States middle and high school students, while a decline in exposure to advertisements in newspapers or magazines, and at retail stores occurred during the same period. However, over two-thirds of students still reported retail store exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements in 2012. Enhanced and sustained efforts would be beneficial to reduce even more exposure to all forms of pro-tobacco advertisements among youths. © 2013.
Reconstructing Tropical Pacific Sea Level Variability for the Period 1961-2002 Using a Linear Multimode Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhu, Xiaoting; Claus, Martin

2018-03-01

Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multimode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called "tilt" mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.
Long-term variations of the upper atmosphere parameters on Rome ionosonde observations and their interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrone, Loredana; Mikhailov, Andrey; Cesaroni, Claudio; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Santis, Angelo De; Pezzopane, Michael; Scotto, Carlo

2017-09-01

A recently proposed self-consistent approach to the analysis of thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends has been applied to Rome ionosonde summer noontime observations for the (1957-2015) period. This approach includes: (i) a method to extract ionospheric parameter long-term variations; (ii) a method to retrieve from observed foF1 neutral composition (O, O2, N2), exospheric temperature, Tex and the total solar EUV flux with λ < 1050 Å; and (iii) a combined analysis of the ionospheric and thermospheric parameter long-term variations using the theory of ionospheric F-layer formation. Atomic oxygen, [O] and [O]/[N2] ratio control foF1 and foF2 while neutral temperature, Tex controls hmF2 long-term variations. Noontime foF2 and foF1 long-term variations demonstrate a negative linear trend estimated over the (1962-2010) period which is mainly due to atomic oxygen decrease after ˜1990. A linear trend in (δhmF2)11y estimated over the (1962-2010) period is very small and insignificant reflecting the absence of any significant trend in neutral temperature. The retrieved neutral gas density, ρ atomic oxygen, [O] and exospheric temperature, Tex long-term variations are controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity, i.e. they have a natural origin. The residual trends estimated over the period of ˜5 solar cycles (1957-2015) are very small (<0.5% per decade) and statistically insignificant.
Trends in record-breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, Clinton M.; Derry, Logan E.

2012-08-01

In an unchanging climate, record-breaking temperatures are expected to decrease in frequency over time, as established records become increasingly more difficult to surpass. This inherent trend in the number of record-breaking events confounds the interpretation of actual trends in the presence of any underlying climate change. Here, a simple technique to remove the inherent trend is introduced so that any remaining trend can be examined separately for evidence of a climate change. As this technique does not use the standard definition of a broken record, our records* are differentiated by an asterisk. Results for the period 1961-2010 indicate that the number of record* low daily minimum temperatures has been significantly and steadily decreasing nearly everywhere across the United States while the number of record* high daily minimum temperatures has been predominantly increasing. Trends in record* low and record* high daily maximum temperatures are generally weaker and more spatially mixed in sign. These results are consistent with other studies examining changes expected in a warming climate.
Slow transients recorded by the cGPS network FreDNet at the northern Adria microplate boundary (NE-Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Giuliana; Fabris, Paolo; Zuliani, David

2013-04-01

The northern tip of the Adria micro-plate (NE-Italy) is continuously monitored by the Friuli Regional Deformation Network (FReDNet) of OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale), consisting of 15 GNSS permanent sites, the first eight of which were installed between 2002 and 2004. Additional information on the strain field in the region comes from the 10 GNSS permanent sites of the Marussi network of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia regional council, some of which record continuously since 1999. Having at disposal time-series of a certain length (around ten-years), it is possible to evaluate with reliability not only the plate motion direction and velocity, represented by the linear trend of the horizontal components of the records, but also the possible plate acceleration, due to the superposition of other terms of the strain field time-space variations, with different frequency. With the aim of investigating such terms, we first processed the GPS data of the longest time series from both networks, starting from 2002, using GAMIT/GLOBK, eliminated the outliers, and filled the eventual short gaps in the data through linear interpolation. A low-band pass filter allowed obtaining the time-series cleaned from the components with frequencies higher than 1.5 years, so to eliminate the annual and quasi-annual terms, and the highest frequencies. The so-obtained time-series for the two horizontal components result dominated by a linear trend, as expected, to which clear oscillations of some years of duration are superimposed. From the analysis of the linear trend, the resulting velocity field suggest crustal shortening, with values ranging between 0.6 and 2.8 mm/year, decreasing from South to North and, more slightly, from East to West. This is in agreement with preceding observations and with the geodynamic character of the region, located in the area of convergence between Adria microplate and Eurasia. As regards as the deviations from the linear trend, the present work focuses on a sort of transient, of "period" between 1.5 and 2.0 years, involving 11 of the 13 stations considered, distributed over the whole area, and causing a bending along the main tectonic directions. In order to state, whether the transient is due to hydrologic or tectonic phenomena, data from rainfalls from the meteorological stations of the regional council networks nearest to each of the GNSS stations have been similarly analysed and compared. In particular, the cumulative de-trended curves have been considered and cross-correlated with the deformation data. The correlation, however, is generally poor. The next step will be the comparison with the seismic activity in the region, from the catalogue of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia seismological network, managed and ruled by OGS.
A nested observation and model approach to non linear groundwater surface water interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.

2009-04-01

Surface water quality measurements in The Netherlands are scattered in time and space. Therefore, water quality status and its variations and trends are difficult to determine. In order to reach the water quality goals according to the European Water Framework Directive, we need to improve our understanding of the dynamics of surface water quality and the processes that affect it. In heavily drained lowland catchment groundwater influences the discharge towards the surface water network in many complex ways. Especially a strong seasonal contracting and expanding system of discharging ditches and streams affects discharge and solute transport. At a tube drained field site the tube drain flux and the combined flux of all other flow routes toward a stretch of 45 m of surface water have been measured for a year. Also the groundwater levels at various locations in the field and the discharge at two nested catchment scales have been monitored. The unique reaction of individual flow routes on rainfall events at the field site allowed us to separate the discharge at a 4 ha catchment and at a 6 km2 into flow route contributions. The results of this nested experimental setup combined with the results of a distributed hydrological model has lead to the formulation of a process model approach that focuses on the spatial variability of discharge generation driven by temporal and spatial variations in groundwater levels. The main idea of this approach is that discharge is not generated by catchment average storages or groundwater heads, but is mainly generated by points scale extremes i.e. extreme low permeability, extreme high groundwater heads or extreme low surface elevations, all leading to catchment discharge. We focused on describing the spatial extremes in point scale storages and this led to a simple and measurable expression that governs the non-linear groundwater surface water interaction. We will present the analysis of the field site data to demonstrate the potential of nested-scale, high frequency observations. The distributed hydrological model results will be used to show transient catchment scale relations between groundwater levels and discharges. These analyses lead to a simple expression that can describe catchment scale groundwater surface water interactions.

Hardness and compression resistance of natural rubber and synthetic rubber mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arguello, J. M.; Santos, A.

2016-02-01

This project aims to mechanically characterize through compression resistance and shore hardness tests, the mixture of hevea brasiliensis natural rubber with butadiene synthetic rubber (BR), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and ethylene-propylene-diene monomer rubber (EPDM). For each of the studied mixtures were performed 10 tests, each of which increased by 10% the content of synthetic rubber in the mixture; each test consisted of carrying out five tests of compression resistance and five tests of shore hardness. The specimens were vulcanized on a temperature of 160°C, during an approximate time of 15 minutes, and the equipment used in the performance of the mechanical tests were a Shimadzu universal machine and a digital durometer. The results show that the A shore hardness increases directly proportional, with a linear trend, with the content of synthetic BR, SBR or EPDM rubber present in the mixture, being the EPDM the most influential. With respect to the compression resistance is observed that the content of BR or SBR increase this property directly proportional through a linear trend; while the EPDM content also increases but with a polynomial trend.
Ion transport with charge-protected and non-charge-protected cations using the compensated Arrhenius formalism. Part 2. Relationship between ionic conductivity and diffusion.

PubMed

Petrowsky, Matt; Fleshman, Allison; Bopege, Dharshani N; Frech, Roger

2012-08-09

Temperature-dependent ionic conductivities and cation/anion self-diffusion coefficients are measured for four electrolyte families: TbaTf-linear primary alcohols, LiTf-linear primary alcohols, TbaTf-n-alkyl acetates, and LiTf-n-alkyl acetates. The Nernst-Einstein equation does not adequately describe the data. Instead, the compensated Arrhenius formalism is applied to both conductivity and diffusion data. General trends based on temperature and alkyl chain length are observed when conductivity is plotted against cation or anion diffusion coefficient, but there is no clear pattern to the data. However, plotting conductivity exponential prefactors against those for diffusion results in four distinct curves, one each for the alcohol and acetate families described above. Furthermore, the TbaTf-alcohol and TbaTf-acetate data are "in line" with each other. The conductivity prefactors for the LiTf-alcohol data are smaller than those for the TbaTf data. The LiTf-acetate data have the lowest conductivity prefactors. This trend in prefactors mirrors the observed trend in degree of ionic association for these electrolytes.
A Simple Equation to Predict a Subscore's Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feinberg, Richard A.; Wainer, Howard

2014-01-01

Subscores are often used to indicate test-takers' relative strengths and weaknesses and so help focus remediation. But a subscore is not worth reporting if it is too unreliable to believe or if it contains no information that is not already contained in the total score. It is possible, through the use of a simple linear equation provided in…
Trends in cancer incidence in female breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and ovary in India.

PubMed

Yeole, Balkrishna B

2008-01-01

Trends in breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers in six population based cancer registries (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal, and Barshi) were evaluated over a period of the last two decades. For studying trends we used a model that fits this data is the logarithm of Y=ABx which represents a Linear Regression model. This approach showed a decreasing trend for cancer of the cervix and increasing trends for cancers of breast, ovary and corpus uteri throughout the entire period of observation in most of the registries. The four cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri and ovary, constitute more than 50% of total cancers in women. As all these cancers are increasing, to understand their etiology in depth, analytic epidemiology studies should be planned in a near future on a priority basis.
Short relaxation times but long transient times in both simple and complex reaction networks

PubMed Central

Henry, Adrien; Martin, Olivier C.

2016-01-01

When relaxation towards an equilibrium or steady state is exponential at large times, one usually considers that the associated relaxation time τ, i.e. the inverse of the decay rate, is the longest characteristic time in the system. However, that need not be true, other times such as the lifetime of an infinitesimal perturbation can be much longer. In the present work, we demonstrate that this paradoxical property can arise even in quite simple systems such as a linear chain of reactions obeying mass action (MA) kinetics. By mathematical analysis of simple reaction networks, we pin-point the reason why the standard relaxation time does not provide relevant information on the potentially long transient times of typical infinitesimal perturbations. Overall, we consider four characteristic times and study their behaviour in both simple linear chains and in more complex reaction networks taken from the publicly available database ‘Biomodels’. In all these systems, whether involving MA rates, Michaelis–Menten reversible kinetics, or phenomenological laws for reaction rates, we find that the characteristic times corresponding to lifetimes of tracers and of concentration perturbations can be significantly longer than τ. PMID:27411726
A simple formula for predicting claw volume of cattle.

PubMed

Scott, T D; Naylor, J M; Greenough, P R

1999-11-01

The object of this study was to develop a simple method for accurately calculating the volume of bovine claws under field conditions. The digits of 30 slaughterhouse beef cattle were examined and the following four linear measurements taken from each pair of claws: (1) the length of the dorsal surface of the claw (Toe); (2) the length of the coronary band (CorBand); (3) the length of the bearing surface (Base); and (4) the height of the claw at the abaxial groove (AbaxGr). Measurements of claw volume using a simple hydrometer were highly repeatable (r(2)= 0.999) and could be calculated from linear measurements using the formula:Claw Volume (cm(3)) = (17.192 x Base) + (7.467 x AbaxGr) + 45.270 x (CorBand) - 798.5This formula was found to be accurate (r(2)= 0.88) when compared to volume data derived from a hydrometer displacement procedure. The front claws occupied 54% of the total volume compared to 46% for the hind claws. Copyright 1999 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.
Acceleration and Velocity Sensing from Measured Strain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-Gi; Truax, Roger

2015-01-01

A simple approach for computing acceleration and velocity of a structure from the strain is proposed in this study. First, deflection and slope of the structure are computed from the strain using a two-step theory. Frequencies of the structure are computed from the time histories of strain using a parameter estimation technique together with an autoregressive moving average model. From deflection, slope, and frequencies of the structure, acceleration and velocity of the structure can be obtained using the proposed approach. Simple harmonic motion is assumed for the acceleration computations, and the central difference equation with a linear autoregressive model is used for the computations of velocity. A cantilevered rectangular wing model is used to validate the simple approach. Quality of the computed deflection, acceleration, and velocity values are independent of the number of fibers. The central difference equation with a linear autoregressive model proposed in this study follows the target response with reasonable accuracy. Therefore, the handicap of the backward difference equation, phase shift, is successfully overcome.
Evolution of finite-amplitude localized vortices in planar homogeneous shear flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karp, Michael; Shukhman, Ilia G.; Cohen, Jacob

2017-02-01

An analytical-based method is utilized to follow the evolution of localized initially Gaussian disturbances in flows with homogeneous shear, in which the base velocity components are at most linear functions of the coordinates, including hyperbolic, elliptic, and simple shear. Coherent structures, including counterrotating vortex pairs (CVPs) and hairpin vortices, are formed for the cases where the streamlines of the base flow are open (hyperbolic and simple shear). For hyperbolic base flows, the dominance of shear over rotation leads to elongation of the localized disturbance along the outlet asymptote and formation of CVPs. For simple shear CVPs are formed from linear and nonlinear disturbances, whereas hairpins are observed only for highly nonlinear disturbances. For elliptic base flows CVPs, hairpins and vortex loops form initially, however they do not last and break into various vortical structures that spread in the spanwise direction. The effect of the disturbance's initial amplitude and orientation is examined and the optimal orientation achieving maximal growth is identified.
Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. Apresentar uma atualização das tendências da mortalidade da asma no Brasil em duas faixas etárias: 0-4 anos e 5-34 anos. Dados relativos ao período de 1980 a 2014 referentes à mortalidade da asma, conforme se definiu na Classificação Internacional de Doenças, foram extraídos Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Departamento de Tecnologia da Informação do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para analisar as tendências temporais das taxas padronizadas de mortalidade da asma, realizou-se um estudo ecológico de séries temporais com modelos de regressão para as faixas etárias de 0 a 4 anos e 5 a 34 anos. Houve uma tendência linear de redução da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias e uma tendência polinomial de terceira ordem na população geral. Embora a mortalidade da asma tenha apresentado redução linear consistente em indivíduos com idade ≤ 34 anos, a taxa de declínio foi maior na faixa etária de 0 a 4 anos. A faixa etária de 5 a 34 anos também apresentou redução linear da mortalidade, e essa redução tornou-se mais pronunciada após o ano de 2004, quando o tratamento com corticosteroides inalatórios tornou-se mais amplamente disponível. A redução linear da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias contrasta com a tendência não linear observada na população geral do Brasil. A introdução do uso de corticosteroides inalatórios por meio de políticas públicas de controle da asma coincidiu com uma diminuição significativa das taxas de mortalidade da asma em ambos os subgrupos de indivíduos com mais de 5 anos de idade. As causas dessa redução da mortalidade da asma em faixas etárias mais jovens ainda são objeto de debate.
Total ozone trends and variability during 1979-2012 from merged data sets of various satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chehade, W.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2014-07-01

The study presents a long-term statistical trend analysis of total ozone data sets obtained from various satellites. A multi-variate linear regression was applied to annual mean zonal mean data using various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables that represent dynamical and chemical processes which modify global ozone distributions in a changing climate. The study investigated the magnitude and zonal distribution of the different atmospheric chemical and dynamical factors contributing to long-term total ozone changes. The regression model included the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the 11-year solar cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), stratospheric aerosol loading describing the effects from major volcanic eruptions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic and Antarctic oscillation (AO/AAO), and accumulated eddy heat flux (EHF), the latter representing changes due to the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The total ozone column data set used here comprises the Solar Backscater Ultraviolet SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data set (MOD) V8.6, the merged data set of the Solar Backscaterr Ultraviolet, the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument SBUV/TOMS/OMI (1979-2012) MOD V8.0 and the merged data set of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartograpHY and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 (GSG) (1995-2012). The trend analysis was performed for twenty-six 5° wide latitude bands from 65° S to 65° N, and the analysis explained most of the ozone variability to within 70 to 90%. The results show that QBO dominates the ozone variability in the tropics (±7 DU) while at higher latitudes, the dynamical indices, AO/AAO and eddy heat flux, have substantial influence on total ozone variations by up to ±10 DU. The contribution from volcanic aerosols is only prominent during the major eruption periods (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo), and together with the ENSO signal, is more evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The signature of the solar cycle covers all latitudes and contributes about 10 DU from solar maximum to solar minimum. EESC is found to be a main contributor to the long-term ozone decline and the trend changes after the end of the 1990s. From the EESC fits, statistically significant upward trends after 1997 were found in the extratropics, which points at the slowing of ozone decline and the onset of ozone recovery. The EESC based trends are compared with the trends obtained from the statistical piecewise linear trend (PWLT) model (known as hockey stick) with a turnaround in 1997 to examine the differences between both approaches. In case of the SBUV merged V8.6 data the EESC and PWLT trends before and after 1997 are in good agreement (within 2 σ), however, the positive post-1997 linear trends from the PWLT regression are not significant within 2 σ. A sensitivity study is carried out by comparing the regression results, using SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 merged time series (1979-2012) and a merged data set combining SBUV/SBUV-2 (1979-June 1995) and GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 ("GSG") WFDOAS (Weighting Function DOAS) (July 1995-2012) as well as SBUV/TOMS/OMI MOD V8.0 (1979-2012) in the regression analysis in order to investigate the uncertainty in the long-term trends due to different ozone data sets and data versions. Replacing the late SBUV/SBUV-2 merged data record with GSG data (unscaled and adjusted) leads to very similar results demonstrating the high consistency between satellite data sets. However, the comparison of the new SBUV/SBUV-2 MOD V8.6 with the MOD V8.0 and MOD8.6/GSG data showed somewhat smaller sensitivities with regard to several proxies as well as the linear EESC trends. On the other hand, the PWLT trends after 1997 show some differences, however, within the 2 σ error bars the PWLT trends agree with each other for all three data sets.
Aerosol radiative effects and their trends under clear-sky situations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartok, Blanka

2017-04-01

In the literature great uncertainties ca be found regarding radiative effects of aerosols on the energy budget of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2013). In the study the aerosols radiative effects on clear-sky solar radiation are quantified over Europe using empirical and physical modelling approaches. The values of aerosol radiation effect are determined by the MAGIC radiation code. In the first run clear-sky radiation is calculated integrating KINEE/MPI/Aerocom aerosol climatology and ERA-INTERIM water vapour multiannual monthly means. In the next run the clear-sky radiation are also calculated ignoring aerosol data (adjusted to 0) from the algorithm. Both runs were carried out for each months of the year, taking into account the varying astrological factors. The difference between the aerosol-included and aerosol-free clear-sky radiation is equal to the absolute aerosol radiative effect in W/m2. The annual mean of the surface aerosol radiative effects in clear-sky situations over Europe is -7.1 ± 2.9 W/m2, high values are representing the central part of the continent and the Mediterranean Basin. Furthermore the trends of the aerosol radiative effects are also determined for the period of 2001-2012. First a linear fitting is elaborated between the aerosol optical depth (AOT) built in the MAGIC code and its aerosol radiative effect calculated by the code. Next, based on these linear functions a radiative effect values are assigned to each monthly AOT500 value available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra Level-3 experiment. In this way a new dataset of aerosol radiative effect for the period of 2001-2012 has been created. Beside of this approach the changes in aerosol radiative effects are also calculated based on ground-based clear-sky radiation trends. This approach is used as a validation of the method applied in earlier stage, mainly for the linear fitting. The starting point of this approach is to elaborate the trends of clear-sky radiation controlled by the effects of aerosols and water vapour. If we subtract the water vapour effects also calculated by MAGIC radiation code from this trend, the magnitude of the trends in aerosol radiative effects can be estimated. In this case it is assumed that the two effects do not amplify and do not cancel each other, and their arithmetic sum gives the change in clear-sky radiation trend. The two approaches give good fit, based on the direct (modelled) approach the annual trend of the aerosol radiative effects on clear-sky solar surface radiation is -4.41 W/m2 per decade for the period of 2001-2013, while in the case of the indirect approach (based on clear-sky trends) this trend is found to be -4.46 W/m2 per decade.
Quantifying stratospheric ozone trends: Complications due to stratospheric cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLinden, C. A.; Fioletov, V.

2011-02-01

Recent studies suggest that ozone turnaround (the second stage of ozone recovery) is near. Determining precisely when this occurs, however, will be complicated by greenhouse gas-induced stratospheric cooling as ozone trends derived from profile data in different units and/or vertical co-ordinates will not agree. Stratospheric cooling leads to simultaneous trends in air density and layer thicknesses, confounding the interpretation of ozone trends. A simple model suggests that instruments measuring ozone in different units may differ as to the onset of turnaround by a decade, with some indicting a continued decline while others an increase. This concept was illustrated by examining the long-term (1979-2005) ozone trends in the SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) and SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) time series. Trends from SAGE, which measures number density as a function of altitude, and SBUV, which measures partial column as a function of pressure, are known to differ by 4-6%/decade in the upper stratosphere. It is shown that this long-standing difference can be reconciled to within 2%/decade when the trend in temperature is properly accounted for.
Using complexity metrics with R-R intervals and BPM heart rate measures.

PubMed

Wallot, Sebastian; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Jegindø, Else-Marie

2013-01-01

Lately, growing attention in the health sciences has been paid to the dynamics of heart rate as indicator of impending failures and for prognoses. Likewise, in social and cognitive sciences, heart rate is increasingly employed as a measure of arousal, emotional engagement and as a marker of interpersonal coordination. However, there is no consensus about which measurements and analytical tools are most appropriate in mapping the temporal dynamics of heart rate and quite different metrics are reported in the literature. As complexity metrics of heart rate variability depend critically on variability of the data, different choices regarding the kind of measures can have a substantial impact on the results. In this article we compare linear and non-linear statistics on two prominent types of heart beat data, beat-to-beat intervals (R-R interval) and beats-per-min (BPM). As a proof-of-concept, we employ a simple rest-exercise-rest task and show that non-linear statistics-fractal (DFA) and recurrence (RQA) analyses-reveal information about heart beat activity above and beyond the simple level of heart rate. Non-linear statistics unveil sustained post-exercise effects on heart rate dynamics, but their power to do so critically depends on the type data that is employed: While R-R intervals are very susceptible to non-linear analyses, the success of non-linear methods for BPM data critically depends on their construction. Generally, "oversampled" BPM time-series can be recommended as they retain most of the information about non-linear aspects of heart beat dynamics.
Using complexity metrics with R-R intervals and BPM heart rate measures

PubMed Central

Wallot, Sebastian; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Jegindø, Else-Marie

2013-01-01

Lately, growing attention in the health sciences has been paid to the dynamics of heart rate as indicator of impending failures and for prognoses. Likewise, in social and cognitive sciences, heart rate is increasingly employed as a measure of arousal, emotional engagement and as a marker of interpersonal coordination. However, there is no consensus about which measurements and analytical tools are most appropriate in mapping the temporal dynamics of heart rate and quite different metrics are reported in the literature. As complexity metrics of heart rate variability depend critically on variability of the data, different choices regarding the kind of measures can have a substantial impact on the results. In this article we compare linear and non-linear statistics on two prominent types of heart beat data, beat-to-beat intervals (R-R interval) and beats-per-min (BPM). As a proof-of-concept, we employ a simple rest-exercise-rest task and show that non-linear statistics—fractal (DFA) and recurrence (RQA) analyses—reveal information about heart beat activity above and beyond the simple level of heart rate. Non-linear statistics unveil sustained post-exercise effects on heart rate dynamics, but their power to do so critically depends on the type data that is employed: While R-R intervals are very susceptible to non-linear analyses, the success of non-linear methods for BPM data critically depends on their construction. Generally, “oversampled” BPM time-series can be recommended as they retain most of the information about non-linear aspects of heart beat dynamics. PMID:23964244
An Algebraic Method for Exploring Quantum Monodromy and Quantum Phase Transitions in Non-Rigid Molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larese, D.; Iachello, F.

2011-06-01

A simple algebraic Hamiltonian has been used to explore the vibrational and rotational spectra of the skeletal bending modes of HCNO, BrCNO, NCNCS, and other ``floppy`` (quasi-linear or quasi-bent) molecules. These molecules have large-amplitude, low-energy bending modes and champagne-bottle potential surfaces, making them good candidates for observing quantum phase transitions (QPT). We describe the geometric phase transitions from bent to linear in these and other non-rigid molecules, quantitatively analysing the spectroscopy signatures of ground state QPT, excited state QPT, and quantum monodromy.The algebraic framework is ideal for this work because of its small calculational effort yet robust results. Although these methods have historically found success with tri- and four-atomic molecules, we now address five-atomic and simple branched molecules such as CH_3NCO and GeH_3NCO. Extraction of potential functions is completed for several molecules, resulting in predictions of barriers to linearity and equilibrium bond angles.
Relation of the external mechanical stress to the properties of piezoelectric materials for energy harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Soon-Jong; Kim, Min-Soo; Lee, Dae-Su; Song, Jae-Sung; Cho, Kyung-Ho

2013-12-01

We investigated the piezoelectric properties and the generation of voltage and power under the mechanical compressive loads for three types of piezoelectric ceramics 0.2Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-0.8Pb(Zr0.475Ti0.525)O3 (soft-PZT), 0.1Pb(Mg1/3Sb2/3)O3- 0.9Pb(Zr0.475Ti0.525)O3 (hard-PZT) and [0.675Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-0.35PbTiO3]+5 wt% BaTiO3 (textured-PMNT). The piezoelectric d 33 coefficients of all specimens increased with increasing compressive load. The generated voltage and power showed a linear relation and square relation to the applied stress, respectively. These results were larger than those calculated using the simple piezoelectric equation due to the non-linear characteristics of the ceramics, so they were evaluated with a simple model based on a non-linear relation.
Flexible Modes Control Using Sliding Mode Observers: Application to Ares I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shtessel, Yuri B.; Hall, Charles E.; Baev, Simon; Orr, Jeb S.

2010-01-01

The launch vehicle dynamics affected by bending and sloshing modes are considered. Attitude measurement data that are corrupted by flexible modes could yield instability of the vehicle dynamics. Flexible body and sloshing modes are reconstructed by sliding mode observers. The resultant estimates are used to remove the undesirable dynamics from the measurements, and the direct effects of sloshing and bending modes on the launch vehicle are compensated by means of a controller that is designed without taking the bending and sloshing modes into account. A linearized mathematical model of Ares I launch vehicle was derived based on FRACTAL, a linear model developed by NASA/MSFC. The compensated vehicle dynamics with a simple PID controller were studied for the launch vehicle model that included two bending modes, two slosh modes and actuator dynamics. A simulation study demonstrated stable and accurate performance of the flight control system with the augmented simple PID controller without the use of traditional linear bending filters.
Linear and nonlinear mechanical properties of a series of epoxy resins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curliss, D. B.; Caruthers, J. M.

1987-01-01

The linear viscoelastic properties have been measured for a series of bisphenol-A-based epoxy resins cured with the diamine DDS. The linear viscoelastic master curves were constructed via time-temperature superposition of frequency dependent G-prime and G-double-prime isotherms. The G-double-prime master curves exhibited two sub-Tg transitions. Superposition of isotherms in the glass-to-rubber transition (i.e., alpha) and the beta transition at -60 C was achieved by simple horizontal shifts in the log frequency axis; however, in the region between alpha and beta, superposition could not be effected by simple horizontal shifts along the log frequency axis. The different temperature dependency of the alpha and beta relaxation mechanisms causes a complex response of G-double-prime in the so called alpha-prime region. A novel numerical procedure has been developed to extract the complete relaxation spectra and its temperature dependence from the G-prime and G-double-prime isothermal data in the alpha-prime region.
Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

PubMed Central

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636
Mineral exploration and fracture trends in Utah and Nevada, by ERTS-1 imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Major structural trends have been compiled on five separate maps, at a scale of 1:1,000,000, of Utah and Nevada from ERTS-1 imagery. An arbitrary length of ten kilometers has been chosen as a minimum length of the trends. The selection is based upon: (1) obvious displacement of structures; (2) continuity or persistence of trends across structures; (3) line-up of outcrop patterns, drainage, erosional features or vegetation; and (4) near-linear trends. Several recognizable trend directions have noted, viz., N 10-15 deg W, N 35 deg W, N 80 deg W, N 30 deg E, and E-W. More than 1500 structural trends have been identified, some of which are mineralized and extend into pediment or shallow alluvial cover. Those fracture trends that exhibit mineralization in exposed bedrock will be assayed for mercury content with a soil-gas analyzer and similar collection will be done over alluvial posture blankets by the same technique with the hope of discovering blind mineralized zones that are not exposed on the surface.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.
Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

2017-05-01

To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-06-01

The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.
Piezoelectric Non Linear Nanomechanical Temperature and Acceleration Insensitive Clocks (PENNTAC)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

requirements dictated by the Defense Advanced Research Agency (DARPA) program. Figure 7: Measured PN Response of the Non -linear 222 MHz AlN...wavelength (λ) are designed as supports for resonators in which the dimensions of the vibrating body are kept fixed. The Q extracted experimentally confirms...conditions. In this way, we are able to quantitatively predict Q due to anchor losses and qualitatively describe the trends observed experimentally
The developing human brain: age-related changes in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar anatomy.

PubMed

Sussman, Dafna; Leung, Rachel C; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Lerch, Jason P; Taylor, Margot J

2016-04-01

This study is the first to characterize normal development and sex differences across neuroanatomical structures in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar brain regions in a single large cohort. One hundred and ninety-two magnetic resonance images were examined from 96 typically developing females and 96 age-matched typically developing males from 4 to 18 years of age. Image segmentation of the cortex was conducted with CIVET, while that of the cerebellum, hippocampi, thalamus, and basal ganglia were conducted using the MAGeT algorithm. Cortical thickness analysis revealed that most cortical regions decrease linearly, while surface area increases linearly with age. Volume relative to total cerebrum followed a quadratic trend with age, with only the left supramarginal gyrus showing sexual dimorphism. Hippocampal relative volume increased linearly, while the thalamus, caudate, and putamen decreased linearly, and the cerebellum did not change with age. The relative volumes of several subcortical subregions followed inverted U-shaped trends that peaked at ~12 years of age. Many subcortical structures were found to be larger in females than in males, independently of age, while others showed a sex-by-age interaction. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar growth patterns during normal development, and draws attention to the role of sex on neuroanatomical maturation throughout childhood and adolescence.
Apparatus and method for epileptic seizure detection using non-linear techniques

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Clapp, Ned E.; Daw, C. Stuart; Lawkins, William F.

1998-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically detecting epileptic seizures by monitoring and analyzing brain wave (EEG or MEG) signals. Steps include: acquiring the brain wave data from the patient; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; determining that one or more trends in the nonlinear measures indicate a seizure, and providing notification of seizure occurrence.
On the derivation of linear irreversible thermodynamics for classical fluids

PubMed Central

Theodosopulu, M.; Grecos, A.; Prigogine, I.

1978-01-01

We consider the microscopic derivation of the linearized hydrodynamic equations for an arbitrary simple fluid. Our discussion is based on the concept of hydrodynamical modes, and use is made of the ideas and methods of the theory of subdynamics. We also show that this analysis leads to the Gibbs relation for the entropy of the system. PMID:16592516
Implementing dense linear algebra algorithms using multitasking on the CRAY X-MP-4 (or approaching the gigaflop)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dongarra, J.J.; Hewitt, T.

1985-08-01

This note describes some experiments on simple, dense linear algebra algorithms. These experiments show that the CRAY X-MP is capable of small-grain multitasking arising from standard implementations of LU and Cholesky decomposition. The implementation described here provides the ''fastest'' execution rate for LU decomposition, 718 MFLOPS for a matrix of order 1000.
Design sensitivity analysis of nonlinear structural response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardoso, J. B.; Arora, J. S.

1987-01-01

A unified theory is described of design sensitivity analysis of linear and nonlinear structures for shape, nonshape and material selection problems. The concepts of reference volume and adjoint structure are used to develop the unified viewpoint. A general formula for design sensitivity analysis is derived. Simple analytical linear and nonlinear examples are used to interpret various terms of the formula and demonstrate its use.
Assessing the cumulative effects of linear recreation routes on wildlife habitats on the Okanogan and Wenatchee National Forests.

Treesearch

William L. Gaines; Peter H. Singleton; Roger C. Ross

2003-01-01

We conducted a literature review to document the effects of linear recreation routes on focal wildlife species. We identified a variety of interactions between focal species and roads, motorized trails, and nonmotorized trails. We used the available science to develop simple geographic information system-based models to evaluate the cumulative effects of recreational...
Nonlinear multiplicative dendritic integration in neuron and network models

PubMed Central

Zhang, Danke; Li, Yuanqing; Rasch, Malte J.; Wu, Si

2013-01-01

Neurons receive inputs from thousands of synapses distributed across dendritic trees of complex morphology. It is known that dendritic integration of excitatory and inhibitory synapses can be highly non-linear in reality and can heavily depend on the exact location and spatial arrangement of inhibitory and excitatory synapses on the dendrite. Despite this known fact, most neuron models used in artificial neural networks today still only describe the voltage potential of a single somatic compartment and assume a simple linear summation of all individual synaptic inputs. We here suggest a new biophysical motivated derivation of a single compartment model that integrates the non-linear effects of shunting inhibition, where an inhibitory input on the route of an excitatory input to the soma cancels or “shunts” the excitatory potential. In particular, our integration of non-linear dendritic processing into the neuron model follows a simple multiplicative rule, suggested recently by experiments, and allows for strict mathematical treatment of network effects. Using our new formulation, we further devised a spiking network model where inhibitory neurons act as global shunting gates, and show that the network exhibits persistent activity in a low firing regime. PMID:23658543
Reversed inverse regression for the univariate linear calibration and its statistical properties derived using a new methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Pilsang; Koo, Changhoi; Roh, Hokyu

2017-11-01

Since simple linear regression theory was established at the beginning of the 1900s, it has been used in a variety of fields. Unfortunately, it cannot be used directly for calibration. In practical calibrations, the observed measurements (the inputs) are subject to errors, and hence they vary, thus violating the assumption that the inputs are fixed. Therefore, in the case of calibration, the regression line fitted using the method of least squares is not consistent with the statistical properties of simple linear regression as already established based on this assumption. To resolve this problem, "classical regression" and "inverse regression" have been proposed. However, they do not completely resolve the problem. As a fundamental solution, we introduce "reversed inverse regression" along with a new methodology for deriving its statistical properties. In this study, the statistical properties of this regression are derived using the "error propagation rule" and the "method of simultaneous error equations" and are compared with those of the existing regression approaches. The accuracy of the statistical properties thus derived is investigated in a simulation study. We conclude that the newly proposed regression and methodology constitute the complete regression approach for univariate linear calibrations.
Feasibility of Decentralized Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian Control of Autonomous Distributed Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell

1999-01-01

A distributed satellite formation, modeled as an arbitrary number of fully connected nodes in a network, could be controlled using a decentralized controller framework that distributes operations in parallel over the network. For such problems, a solution that minimizes data transmission requirements, in the context of linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control theory, was given by Speyer. This approach is advantageous because it is non-hierarchical, detected failures gracefully degrade system performance, fewer local computations are required than for a centralized controller, and it is optimal with respect to the standard LQG cost function. Disadvantages of the approach are the need for a fully connected communications network, the total operations performed over all the nodes are greater than for a centralized controller, and the approach is formulated for linear time-invariant systems. To investigate the feasibility of the decentralized approach to satellite formation flying, a simple centralized LQG design for a spacecraft orbit control problem is adapted to the decentralized framework. The simple design uses a fixed reference trajectory (an equatorial, Keplerian, circular orbit), and by appropriate choice of coordinates and measurements is formulated as a linear time-invariant system.
Current trends for customized biomedical software tools.

PubMed

Khan, Haseeb Ahmad

2017-01-01

In the past, biomedical scientists were solely dependent on expensive commercial software packages for various applications. However, the advent of user-friendly programming languages and open source platforms has revolutionized the development of simple and efficient customized software tools for solving specific biomedical problems. Many of these tools are designed and developed by biomedical scientists independently or with the support of computer experts and often made freely available for the benefit of scientific community. The current trends for customized biomedical software tools are highlighted in this short review.
Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.
Supervised linear dimensionality reduction with robust margins for object recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dornaika, F.; Assoum, A.

2013-01-01

Linear Dimensionality Reduction (LDR) techniques have been increasingly important in computer vision and pattern recognition since they permit a relatively simple mapping of data onto a lower dimensional subspace, leading to simple and computationally efficient classification strategies. Recently, many linear discriminant methods have been developed in order to reduce the dimensionality of visual data and to enhance the discrimination between different groups or classes. Many existing linear embedding techniques relied on the use of local margins in order to get a good discrimination performance. However, dealing with outliers and within-class diversity has not been addressed by margin-based embedding method. In this paper, we explored the use of different margin-based linear embedding methods. More precisely, we propose to use the concepts of Median miss and Median hit for building robust margin-based criteria. Based on such margins, we seek the projection directions (linear embedding) such that the sum of local margins is maximized. Our proposed approach has been applied to the problem of appearance-based face recognition. Experiments performed on four public face databases show that the proposed approach can give better generalization performance than the classic Average Neighborhood Margin Maximization (ANMM). Moreover, thanks to the use of robust margins, the proposed method down-grades gracefully when label outliers contaminate the training data set. In particular, we show that the concept of Median hit was crucial in order to get robust performance in the presence of outliers.
Linear stability analysis of collective neutrino oscillations without spurious modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morinaga, Taiki; Yamada, Shoichi

2018-01-01

Collective neutrino oscillations are induced by the presence of neutrinos themselves. As such, they are intrinsically nonlinear phenomena and are much more complex than linear counterparts such as the vacuum or Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein oscillations. They obey integro-differential equations, for which it is also very challenging to obtain numerical solutions. If one focuses on the onset of collective oscillations, on the other hand, the equations can be linearized and the technique of linear analysis can be employed. Unfortunately, however, it is well known that such an analysis, when applied with discretizations of continuous angular distributions, suffers from the appearance of so-called spurious modes: unphysical eigenmodes of the discretized linear equations. In this paper, we analyze in detail the origin of these unphysical modes and present a simple solution to this annoying problem. We find that the spurious modes originate from the artificial production of pole singularities instead of a branch cut on the Riemann surface by the discretizations. The branching point singularities on the Riemann surface for the original nondiscretized equations can be recovered by approximating the angular distributions with polynomials and then performing the integrals analytically. We demonstrate for some examples that this simple prescription does remove the spurious modes. We also propose an even simpler method: a piecewise linear approximation to the angular distribution. It is shown that the same methodology is applicable to the multienergy case as well as to the dispersion relation approach that was proposed very recently.
Temporal responses of coastal hypoxia to nutrient loading and physical controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, W. M.; Testa, J. M.; Conley, D. J.; Gilbert, D.; Hagy, J. D.

2009-12-01

The incidence and intensity of hypoxic waters in coastal aquatic ecosystems has been expanding in recent decades coincident with eutrophication of the coastal zone. Worldwide, there is strong interest in reducing the size and duration of hypoxia in coastal waters, because hypoxia causes negative effects for many organisms and ecosystem processes. Although strategies to reduce hypoxia by decreasing nutrient loading are predicated on the assumption that this action would reverse eutrophication, recent analyses of historical data from European and North American coastal systems suggest little evidence for simple linear response trajectories. We review published parallel time-series data on hypoxia and loading rates for inorganic nutrients and labile organic matter to analyze trajectories of oxygen (O2) response to nutrient loading. We also assess existing knowledge of physical and ecological factors regulating O2 in coastal marine waters to facilitate analysis of hypoxia responses to reductions in nutrient (and/or organic matter) inputs. Of the 24 systems identified where concurrent time series of loading and O2 were available, half displayed relatively clear and direct recoveries following remediation. We explored in detail 5 well-studied systems that have exhibited complex, non-linear responses to variations in loading, including apparent "regime shifts". A summary of these analyses suggests that O2 conditions improved rapidly and linearly in systems where remediation focused on organic inputs from sewage treatment plants, which were the primary drivers of hypoxia. In larger more open systems where diffuse nutrient loads are more important in fueling O2 depletion and where climatic influences are pronounced, responses to remediation tended to follow non-linear trends that may include hysteresis and time-lags. Improved understanding of hypoxia remediation requires that future studies use comparative approaches and consider multiple regulating factors. These analyses should consider: (1) the dominant temporal scales of the hypoxia, (2) the relative contributions of inorganic and organic nutrients, (3) the influence of shifts in climatic and oceanographic processes, and (4) the roles of feedback interactions whereby O2-sensitive biogeochemistry, trophic interactions, and habitat conditions influence the nutrient and algal dynamics that regulate O2 levels.
Coastal hypoxia responses to remediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, W. M.; Testa, J. M.; Conley, D. J.; Gilbert, D.; Hagy, J. D.

2009-07-01

The incidence and intensity of hypoxic waters in coastal aquatic ecosystems has been expanding in recent decades coincident with eutrophication of the coastal zone. Because of the negative effects hypoxia has on many organisms, extensive efforts have been made to reduce the size and duration of hypoxia in many coastal waters. Although it has been broadly assumed that reductions in nutrient loading rates would reverse eutrophication and consequently, hypoxia, recent analyses of historical data from European and North American coastal systems suggest little evidence for simple linear response trajectories. We review existing data, analyses, and models that relate variations in the extent and intensity of hypoxia to changes in loading rates for inorganic nutrients and labile organic matter. We also assess existing knowledge of physical and ecological factors regulating oxygen in coastal marine waters and examine a broad range of examples where hypoxia responses to reductions in nutrient (or organic matter) inputs have been documented. Of the 22 systems identified where concurrent time series of loading and O2 were available, half displayed relatively clear and direct recoveries following remediation. We explored in detail 5 well-studied systems that have exhibited complex, non-linear responses to loading, including apparent "regime shifts." A summary of these analyses suggests that O2 conditions improved rapidly and linearly in systems where remediation focused on organic inputs from sewage plants, which were the primary drivers of hypoxia. In larger more open systems where diffuse nutrient loads are more important in fueling O2 depletion and where climatic influences are pronounced, responses to remediation tend to follow non-linear trends that may include hysteresis and time-lags. Improved understanding of hypoxia remediation requires that future studies use comparative approaches and consider multiple regulating factors including: (1) the dominant temporal scales of the hypoxia, (2) the relative contributions of inorganic and organic nutrients, (3) the influence of shifts in climatic and oceanographic processes, and (4) the roles of feedback interactions whereby O2-sensitive biogeochemistry, food-webs, and habitats influence the nutrient and algal dynamics that regulate O2 levels.

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.