Fault Slip Distribution and Optimum Sea Surface Displacement of the 2017 Tehuantepec Earthquake in Mexico (Mw 8.2) Estimated from Tsunami Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusman, A. R.; Satake, K.; Mulia, I. E.

2017-12-01

An intraplate normal fault earthquake (Mw 8.2) occurred on 8 September 2017 in the Tehuantepec seismic gap of the Middle America Trench. The submarine earthquake generated a tsunami which was recorded by coastal tide gauges and offshore DART buoys. We used the tsunami waveforms recorded at 16 stations to estimate the fault slip distribution and an optimum sea surface displacement of the earthquake. A steep fault dipping to the northeast with strike of 315°, dip of 73°and rake of -96° based on the USGS W-phase moment tensor solution was assumed for the slip inversion. To independently estimate the sea surface displacement without assuming earthquake fault parameters, we used the B-spline function for the unit sources. The distribution of the unit sources was optimized by a Genetic Algorithm - Pattern Search (GA-PS) method. Tsunami waveform inversion resolves a spatially compact region of large slip (4-10 m) with a dimension of 100 km along the strike and 80 km along the dip in the depth range between 40 km and 110 km. The seismic moment calculated from the fault slip distribution with assumed rigidity of 6 × 1010 Nm-2 is 2.46 × 1021 Nm (Mw 8.2). The optimum displacement model suggests that the sea surface was uplifted up to 0.5 m and subsided down to -0.8 m. The deep location of large fault slip may be the cause of such small sea surface displacements. The simulated tsunami waveforms from the optimum sea surface displacement can reproduce the observations better than those from fault slip distribution; the normalized root mean square misfit for the sea surface displacement is 0.89, while that for the fault slip distribution is 1.04. We simulated the tsunami propagation using the optimum sea surface displacement model. Large tsunami amplitudes up to 2.5 m were predicted to occur inside and around a lagoon located between Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas. Figure 1. a) Sea surface displacement for the 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake estimated by tsunami waveforms. b) Map of simulated maximum tsunami amplitude and comparison between observed (blue circles) and simulated (red circles) tsunami maximum amplitude along the coast.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-08-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

Hyperspectral imaging simulation of object under sea-sky background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Biao; Lin, Jia-xuan; Gao, Wei; Yue, Hui

2016-10-01

Remote sensing image simulation plays an important role in spaceborne/airborne load demonstration and algorithm development. Hyperspectral imaging is valuable in marine monitoring, search and rescue. On the demand of spectral imaging of objects under the complex sea scene, physics based simulation method of spectral image of object under sea scene is proposed. On the development of an imaging simulation model considering object, background, atmosphere conditions, sensor, it is able to examine the influence of wind speed, atmosphere conditions and other environment factors change on spectral image quality under complex sea scene. Firstly, the sea scattering model is established based on the Philips sea spectral model, the rough surface scattering theory and the water volume scattering characteristics. The measured bi directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) data of objects is fit to the statistical model. MODTRAN software is used to obtain solar illumination on the sea, sky brightness, the atmosphere transmittance from sea to sensor and atmosphere backscattered radiance, and Monte Carlo ray tracing method is used to calculate the sea surface object composite scattering and spectral image. Finally, the object spectrum is acquired by the space transformation, radiation degradation and adding the noise. The model connects the spectrum image with the environmental parameters, the object parameters, and the sensor parameters, which provide a tool for the load demonstration and algorithm development.

Simulation of Earthquake-Generated Sea-Surface Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogl, Chris; Leveque, Randy

2016-11-01

Earthquake-generated tsunamis can carry with them a powerful, destructive force. One of the most well-known, recent examples is the tsunami generated by the Tohoku earthquake, which was responsible for the nuclear disaster in Fukushima. Tsunami simulation and forecasting, a necessary element of emergency procedure planning and execution, is typically done using the shallow-water equations. A typical initial condition is that using the Okada solution for a homogeneous, elastic half-space. This work focuses on simulating earthquake-generated sea-surface deformations that are more true to the physics of the materials involved. In particular, a water layer is added on top of the half-space that models the seabed. Sea-surface deformations are then simulated using the Clawpack hyperbolic PDE package. Results from considering the water layer both as linearly elastic and as "nearly incompressible" are compared to that of the Okada solution.

Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

2018-01-01

This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

Simulation of an active underwater imaging through a wavy sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholami, Ali; Saghafifar, Hossein

2018-06-01

A numerical simulation for underwater imaging through a wavy sea surface has been done. We have used a common approach to model the sea surface elevation and its slopes as an important source of image disturbance. The simulation algorithm is based on a combination of ray tracing and optical propagation, which has taken to different approaches for downwelling and upwelling beams. The nature of randomly focusing and defocusing property of surface waves causes a fluctuated irradiance distribution as an illuminating source of immersed object, while it gives rise to a great disturbance on the image through a coordinate change of image pixels. We have also used a modulation transfer function based on Well's small angle approximations to consider the underwater optical properties effect on the transferring of the image. As expected, the absorption effect reduces the light intensity and scattering decreases image contrast by blurring the image.

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.

Influence of sea ice cover and icebergs on circulation and water mass formation in a numerical circulation model of the Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinniman, Michael S.; Klinck, John M.; Smith, Walker O.

2007-11-01

Satellite imagery shows that there was substantial variability in the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea during 2001-2003. Much of this variability is thought to be due to several large icebergs that moved through the area during that period. The effects of these changes in sea ice on circulation and water mass distributions are investigated with a numerical general circulation model. It would be difficult to simulate the highly variable sea ice from 2001 to 2003 with a dynamic sea ice model since much of the variability was due to the floating icebergs. Here, sea ice concentration is specified from satellite observations. To examine the effects of changes in sea ice due to iceberg C-19, simulations were performed using either climatological ice concentrations or the observed ice for that period. The heat balance around the Ross Sea Polynya (RSP) shows that the dominant term in the surface heat budget is the net exchange with the atmosphere, but advection of oceanic warm water is also important. The area average annual basal melt rate beneath the Ross Ice Shelf is reduced by 12% in the observed sea ice simulation. The observed sea ice simulation also creates more High-Salinity Shelf Water. Another simulation was performed with observed sea ice and a fixed iceberg representing B-15A. There is reduced advection of warm surface water during summer from the RSP into McMurdo Sound due to B-15A, but a much stronger reduction is due to the late opening of the RSP in early 2003 because of C-19.

Reconstruction of the 3-D Dynamics From Surface Variables in a High-Resolution Simulation of North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fresnay, S.; Ponte, A. L.; Le Gentil, S.; Le Sommer, J.

2018-03-01

Several methods that reconstruct the three-dimensional ocean dynamics from sea level are presented and evaluated in the Gulf Stream region with a 1/60° realistic numerical simulation. The use of sea level is motivated by its better correlation with interior pressure or quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) compared to sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity, and, by its observability via satellite altimetry. The simplest method of reconstruction relies on a linear estimation of pressure at depth from sea level. Another method consists in linearly estimating PV from sea level first and then performing a PV inversion. The last method considered, labeled SQG for surface quasi-geostrophy, relies on a PV inversion but assumes no PV anomalies. The first two methods show comparable skill at levels above -800 m. They moderately outperform SQG which emphasizes the difficulty of estimating interior PV from surface variables. Over the 250-1,000 m depth range, the three methods skillfully reconstruct pressure at wavelengths between 500 and 200 km whereas they exhibit a rapid loss of skill between 200 and 100 km wavelengths. Applicability to a real case scenario and leads for improvements are discussed.

On the role of inter-basin surface salinity contrasts in global ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2002-08-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (TOC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. Ocean-wide inter-basin SSS contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global TOC. These contrasts are shown to be at least as important as high-latitudinal freshwater impacts. It is also shown that intra-basin longitudinal distribution of sea surface salinity, as well as intra- and inter-basin longitudinal distribution of sea surface temperature, is not crucial to conveyor functionality if only inter-basin contrasts in sea surface salinity are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970–1999 and 2000–2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000–2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970–1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes. PMID:27573802

Application of Land Surface Data Assimilation to Simulations of Sea Breeze Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackaro, Scott; Lapenta, William M.; Blackwell, Keith; Suggs, Ron; McNider, Richard T.; Jedlovec, Gary; Kimball, Sytske

2003-01-01

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSUNCAR MM5 V3-5 and applied at spatial resolutions of 12- and 4-km. It is recognized that even 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Sea Surface Salinity Variability from Simulations and Observations: Preparing for Aquarius

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, S. Daniel; LeVine, David M.

2010-01-01

Oceanic fresh water transport has been shown to play an important role in the global hydrological cycle. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is representative of the surface fresh water fluxes and the upcoming Aquarius mission scheduled to be launched in December 2010 will provide excellent spatial and temporal SSS coverage to better estimate the net exchange. In most ocean general circulation models, SSS is relaxed to climatology to prevent model drift. While SST remains a well observed variable, relaxing to SST reduces the range of SSS variability in the simulations (Fig.1). The main objective of the present study is to simulate surface tracers using a primitive equation ocean model for multiple forcing data sets to identify and establish a baseline SSS variability. The simulated variability scales are compared to those from near-surface argo salinity measurements.

Detection of Rossby Waves in Multi-Parameters in Multi-Mission Satellite Observations and HYCOM Simulations in the Indian Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Heffner, David M.; Cromwell, David; Shriver, Jay F.

2009-01-01

Rossby waves are difficult to detect with in situ methods. However, as we show in this paper, they can be clearly identified in multi-parameters in multi-mission satellite observations of sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean color observations of chlorophyll-a (chl-a), as well as 1/12-deg global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations of SSH, SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indian Ocean. While the surface structure of Rossby waves can be elucidated from comparisons of the signal in different sea surface parameters, models are needed to gain direct information about how these waves affect the ocean at depth. The first three baroclinic modes of the Rossby waves are inferred from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), and two-dimensional Radon Transform (2D RT). At many latitudes the first and second baroclinic mode Rossby wave phase speeds from satellite observations and model parameters are identified.

Sun-stirred Kraken Mare: Circulation in Titan's seas induced by solar heating and methane precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, Tetsuya; Lorenz, Ralph D.

2016-05-01

Density-driven circulation in Titan's seas forced by solar heating and methane evaporation/precipitation is simulated by an ocean circulation model. If the sea is transparent to sunlight, solar heating can induce anti-clockwise gyres near the sea surface and clockwise gyres near the sea bottom. The gyres are in geostrophic balance between the radially symmetric pressure gradient force and Coriolis force. If instead the sea is turbid and most sunlight is absorbed near the sea surface, the sea gets stratified in warm seasons and the circulation remains weak. Precipitation causes compositional stratification of the sea to an extent that the sea surface temperature can be lower than the sea interior temperature without causing a convective overturning. Non-uniform precipitation can also generate a latitudinal gradient in the methane mole fraction and density, which drives a meridional overturning with equatorward currents near the sea surface and poleward currents near the sea bottom. However, gyres are more ubiquitous than meridional overturning.

Sea ice simulations based on fields generated by the GLAS GCM. [Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, C. L.; Herman, G. F.

1980-01-01

The GLAS General Circulation Model (GCM) was applied to the four-month simulation of the thermodynamic part of the Parkinson-Washington sea ice model using atmospheric boundary conditions. The sea ice thickness and distribution were predicted for the Jan. 1-Apr. 30 period using the GCM-fields of solar and infrared radiation, specific humidity and air temperature at the surface, and snow accumulation; the sensible heat and evaporative surface fluxes were consistent with the ground temperatures produced by the ice model and the air temperatures determined by the atmospheric concept. It was concluded that the Parkinson-Washington sea ice model results in acceptable ice concentrations and thicknesses when used with GLAS GCM for the Jan.-Apr. period suggesting the feasibility of fully coupled ice-atmosphere simulations with these two approaches.

Simulating the Regional Impact of Dust on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2018-02-01

The Red Sea is located between North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, the largest sources of dust in the world. Satellite retrievals show very high aerosol optical depth in the region, which increases during the summer season, especially over the southern Red Sea. Previously estimated and validated radiative effect from dust is expected to have a profound thermal and dynamic impact on the Red Sea, but that impact has not yet been studied or evaluated. Due to the strong dust radiative effect at the sea surface, uncoupled ocean modeling approaches with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, to study the impact of dust on the regional climate of the Middle East and the Red Sea, we employed the Regional Ocean Modeling System fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We modified the atmospheric model to account for the radiative effect of dust. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust cools the Red Sea, reduces the surface wind speed, and weakens both the exchange at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and the overturning circulation. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly altered. A validation of the simulations against satellite products indicates that accounting for radiative effect from dust almost completely removes the bias and reduces errors in the top of the atmosphere fluxes and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that dust plays an important role in the energy balance, thermal, and circulation regimes in the Red Sea.

Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

1995-01-01

This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

The Impact of Surface Boundary Forcing on Simulation of the 1998 Summer Drought Over the US Midwest Using Factor Separation Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stein, Uri; Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael

1999-01-01

The factor separation (FS) technique has been utilized to evaluate quantitatively the impact of surface boundary forcings on simulation of the 1988 summer drought over the Midwestern part of the U.S. The four surface boundary forcings used are: (1)Sea Surface Temperature (SST), (2) soil moisture, (3) snow cover, and (4) sea ice. The Goddard Earth Observing System(GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM) is used to simulate the 1988 U.S. drought. A series of sixteen simulations are performed with climatological and real 1988 surface boundary conditions. The major single and mutual synergistic factors/impacts are analyzed. The results show that SST and soil moisture are the major single pro-drought factors. The couple synergistic effect of SST and soil moisture is the major anti-drought factor. The triple synergistic impact of SST, soil moisture, and snow cover is the strongest pro-drought impact and is, therefore, the main contributor to the generation of the drought. The impact of the snow cover and sea ice anomalies for June 1988 on the drought is significant only when combined with the SST and soil moisture anomalies.

The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-04-01

We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models.

PubMed

Holland, Marika M; Landrum, Laura

2015-07-13

We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models

PubMed Central

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura

2015-01-01

We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. PMID:26032318

Polarimetric Doppler spectrum of backscattered echoes from nonlinear sea surface damped by natural slicks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pengju; Guo, Lixin

2016-11-01

Based on the Lombardini et al. model that can predict the hydrodynamic damping of rough sea surfaces in the presence of monomolecular slicks and the "choppy wave" model (CWM) that can describe the nonlinear interactions between ocean waves, the modeling of time-varying nonlinear sea surfaces damped by natural or organic sea slicks is presented in this paper. The polarimetric scattering model of second-order small-slope approximation (SSA-II) with tapered wave incidence is utilized for evaluating co- and cross-polarized backscattered echoes from clean and contaminated CWM nonlinear sea surfaces. The influence of natural sea slicks on Doppler shift and spectral bandwidth of radar sea echoes is investigated in detail by comparing the polarimetric Doppler spectra of contaminated sea surfaces with those of clean sea surfaces. A narrowing of Doppler spectra in the presence of oil slicks is observed for both co- and cross-polarization, which is qualitatively consistent with wave-tank measurements. Simulation results also show that the Doppler shifts in slicks can increase or decrease, depending on incidence angles and polarizations.

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynn, Barry H.; Stauffer, David R.; Wetzel, Peter J.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Perlin, Natal; Baker, R. David; Munoz, Ricardo; Boone, Aaron; Jia, Yiqin

1999-01-01

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

2013-01-01

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

Sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian interglacial: Review of previous work with focus on the surface mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plach, Andreas; Hestnes Nisancioglu, Kerim

2016-04-01

The contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to the global sea level rise during the Eemian interglacial (about 125,000 year ago) was the focus of many studies in the past. A main reason for the interest in this period is the considerable warmer climate during the Eemian which is often seen as an equivalent for possible future climate conditions. Simulated sea level rise during the Eemian can therefore be used to better understand a possible future sea level rise. The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) gives an overview of several studies and discusses the possible implications for a future sea level rise. The report also reveals the big differences between these studies in terms of simulated GIS extent and corresponding sea level rise. The present study gives a more exhaustive review of previous work discussing sea level rise from the GIS during the Eemian interglacial. The smallest extents of the GIS simulated by various authors are shown and summarized. A focus is thereby given to the methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. A hypothesis of the present work is that the varying results of the previous studies can largely be explained due to the various methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. In addition, as a first step for future work, the surface mass balance of the GIS for a proxy-data derived forcing ("index method") and a direct forcing with a General Circulation Model (GCM) are shown and discussed.

Mesoscale model response to random, surface-based perturbations — A sea-breeze experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Miller, W. F.; Lee, T. J.

1990-09-01

The introduction into a mesoscale model of random (in space) variations in roughness length, or random (in space and time) surface perturbations of temperature and friction velocity, produces a measurable, but barely significant, response in the simulated flow dynamics of the lower atmosphere. The perturbations are an attempt to include the effects of sub-grid variability into the ensemble-mean parameterization schemes used in many numerical models. Their magnitude is set in our experiments by appeal to real-world observations of the spatial variations in roughness length and daytime surface temperature over the land on horizontal scales of one to several tens of kilometers. With sea-breeze simulations, comparisons of a number of realizations forced by roughness-length and surface-temperature perturbations with the standard simulation reveal no significant change in ensemble mean statistics, and only small changes in the sea-breeze vertical velocity. Changes in the updraft velocity for individual runs, of up to several cms-1 (compared to a mean of 14 cms-1), are directly the result of prefrontal temperature changes of 0.1 to 0.2K, produced by the random surface forcing. The correlation and magnitude of the changes are entirely consistent with a gravity-current interpretation of the sea breeze.

Turbulence structure of the marine stable boundary layer over the Baltic Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smedman, A.S.; Hoegstroem, U.

For more than half of the year the land surfaces surrounding the Baltic Sea is warmer than the sea surface, and the marine boundary layer over the Baltic is stable. Observations, at various sites in the Baltic Sea area during the last decade. also indicate frequent occurrence of low-level jets at the top of the stable boundary layer. In many cases the marine jet can be considered as an analogy in space to the evolution of the nocturnal jet with time. The frictional decoupling occurs when warm air over the land is flowing out over the sea. Data from twomore » areas together with model simulations are used in this study to characterize turbulence structure in the marine boundary layer. The measurements include profiles of wind and temperature on towers situated at two isolated islands, together with turbulence recordings and aircraft measurements. Also wave height and water surface temperature have been measured. The model simulations are performed with a second-order closure model.« less

Modelling the long-term evolution of worst-case Arctic oil spills.

PubMed

Blanken, Hauke; Tremblay, Louis Bruno; Gaskin, Susan; Slavin, Alexander

2017-03-15

We present worst-case assessments of contamination in sea ice and surface waters resulting from hypothetical well blowout oil spills at ten sites in the Arctic Ocean basin. Spill extents are estimated by considering Eulerian passive tracers in the surface ocean of the MITgcm (a hydrostatic, coupled ice-ocean model). Oil in sea ice, and contamination resulting from melting of oiled ice, is tracked using an offline Lagrangian scheme. Spills are initialized on November 1st 1980-2010 and tracked for one year. An average spill was transported 1100km and potentially affected 1.1 million km 2 . The direction and magnitude of simulated oil trajectories are consistent with known large-scale current and sea ice circulation patterns, and trajectories frequently cross international boundaries. The simulated trajectories of oil in sea ice match observed ice drift trajectories well. During the winter oil transport by drifting sea ice is more significant than transport with surface currents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulations of Eurasian winter temperature trends in coupled and uncoupled CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, Thomas W.; Wang, Wanqiu; Kumar, Arun

2018-01-01

Conflicting results have been presented regarding the link between Arctic sea-ice loss and midlatitude cooling, particularly over Eurasia. This study analyzes uncoupled (atmosphere-only) and coupled (ocean-atmosphere) simulations by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), to examine this linkage during the Northern Hemisphere winter, focusing on the simulation of the observed surface cooling trend over Eurasia during the last three decades. The uncoupled simulations are Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs forced with mean seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, using combinations of SST and sea ice from different time periods to assess the role that each plays individually, and to assess the role of atmospheric internal variability. Coupled runs are used to further investigate the role of internal variability via the analysis of initialized predictions and the evolution of the forecast with lead time. The AMIP simulations show a mean warming response over Eurasia due to SST changes, but little response to changes in sea ice. Individual runs simulate cooler periods over Eurasia, and this is shown to be concurrent with a stronger Siberian high and warming over Greenland. No substantial differences in the variability of Eurasian surface temperatures are found between the different model configurations. In the coupled runs, the region of significant warming over Eurasia is small at short leads, but increases at longer leads. It is concluded that, although the models have some capability in highlighting the temperature variability over Eurasia, the observed cooling may still be a consequence of internal variability.

Effects of Atmospheric Water and Surface Wind on Passive Microwave Retrievals of Sea Ice Concentration: a Simulation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, D.; Chiu, L. S.; Clemente-Colon, P.

2006-05-01

The atmospheric effects on the retrieval of sea ice concentration from passive microwave sensors are examined using simulated data typical for the Arctic summer. The simulation includes atmospheric contributions of cloud liquid water, water vapor and surface wind on the microwave signatures. A plane parallel radiative transfer model is used to compute brightness temperatures at SSM/I frequencies over surfaces that contain open water, first-year (FY) ice and multi-year (MY) ice and their combinations. Synthetic retrievals in this study use the NASA Team (NT) algorithm for the estimation of sea ice concentrations. This study shows that if the satellite sensor's field of view is filled with only FY ice the retrieval is not much affected by the atmospheric conditions due to the high contrast between emission signals from FY ice surface and the signals from the atmosphere. Pure MY ice concentration is generally underestimated due to the low MY ice surface emissivity that results in the enhancement of emission signals from the atmospheric parameters. Simulation results in marginal ice areas also show that the atmospheric effects from cloud liquid water, water vapor and surface wind tend to degrade the accuracy at low sea ice concentration. FY ice concentration is overestimated and MY ice concentration is underestimated in the presence of atmospheric water and surface wind at low ice concentration. This compensating effect reduces the retrieval uncertainties of total (FY and MY) ice concentration. Over marginal ice zones, our results suggest that strong surface wind is more important than atmospheric water in contributing to the retrieval errors of total ice concentrations in the normal ranges of these variables.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, I.; Lau, W.; Shie, C.-L.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/ South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-C loud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. PLACE allows for the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1997 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Mesoscale Convective Systems in SCSMEX: Simulated by a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Jia, Y.; Johnson, D.; Shie, C.-L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation (RELACS) System is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes, in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water and energy cycles in Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, North America and South America. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, PLACE allows for the effect A vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are included. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate the atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. RELACS has been used to simulate the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1986, 1991 and 1998. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences have been performed. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the South China Sea. CPSs can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. RELACS has also been used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during 1998. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. Also, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which allows for realistic moist processes as well as explicit interactions between cloud and radiation, and cloud and surface processes will be used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea Monsoon in 1998. The GCE model also includes the same PLACE and radiation scheme used in the RELACS. A detailed comparison between the results from the GCE model and RELACS will be performed.

Ocean sea-ice modelling in the Southern Ocean around Indian Antarctic stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Anurag; Dwivedi, Suneet; Rajak, D. Ram

2017-07-01

An eddy-resolving coupled ocean sea-ice modelling is carried out in the Southern Ocean region (9°-78°E; 51°-71°S) using the MITgcm. The model domain incorporates the Indian Antarctic stations, Maitri (11.7{°}E; 70.7{°}S) and Bharati (76.1{°}E; 69.4{°}S). The realistic simulation of the surface variables, namely, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), surface currents, sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) is presented for the period of 1997-2012. The horizontal resolution of the model varies between 6 and 10 km. The highest vertical resolution of 5 m is taken near the surface, which gradually increases with increasing depths. The seasonal variability of the SST, SSS, SIC and currents is compared with the available observations in the region of study. It is found that the SIC of the model domain is increasing at a rate of 0.09% per month (nearly 1% per year), whereas, the SIC near Maitri and Bharati regions is increasing at a rate of 0.14 and 0.03% per month, respectively. The variability of the drift of the sea-ice is also estimated over the period of simulation. It is also found that the sea ice volume of the region increases at the rate of 0.0004 km3 per month (nearly 0.005 km3 per year). Further, it is revealed that the accumulation of sea ice around Bharati station is more as compared to Maitri station.

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

2012-01-01

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Study of the blue-green laser scattering from the rough sea surface with foams by the improved two-scale method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiangzhen; Qi, Xiao; Han, Xiang'e.

2015-10-01

The characteristics of laser scattering from sea surface have a great influence on application performance, from submarine communication, laser detection to laser diffusion communication. Foams will appear when the wind speed exceeds a certain value, so the foam can be seen everywhere in the upper layer of the ocean. Aiming at the volume-surface composite model of rough sea surface with foam layer driven by wind, and the similarities and differences of scattering characteristics between blue-green laser and microwave, an improved two-scale method for blue-green laser to calculate the scattering coefficient is presented in this paper. Based on the improved two-scale rough surface scattering theory, MIE theory and VRT( vector radiative transfer ) theory, the relations between the foam coverage of the sea surface and wind speed and air-sea temperature difference are analyzed. Aiming at the Gauss sea surface in blue-green laser, the dependence of back- and bistatie-scattering coefficient on the incident and azimuth angle, the coverage of foams, as well as the wind speed are discussed in detail. The results of numerical simulations are compared and analyzed in this paper. It can be concluded that the foam layer has a considerable effect on the laser scattering with the increase of wind speed, especially for a large incident angle. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the improved two-scale method is reasonable and efficient.

Sun-stirred Kraken Mare: Circulation in Titan's seas induced by solar heating and methane precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, T.; Lorenz, R. D.

2015-10-01

Density-driven circulation in Titan's seas forced by solar heating and methane evaporation/precipitation is simulated by an ocean circulation model. If the sea is transparent to sunlight, solar heating can induce anti-clockwise gyres near the sea surface and clockwise gyres near the sea bottom. The gyres are in geostrophic balance between the radially symmetric pressure gradient force and Coriolis force. If instead the sea is turbid and most sunlight is absorbed near the sea surface, the sea gets stratified in warm seasons and the circulation remains weak. Strong summer precipitation at high latitudes causes compositional stratification and increase of the nearsurface methane mole fraction towards the north pole. The resultant latitudinal density contrast drives a meridional overturning with equatorward currents near the sea surface and poleward currents near the sea bottom. Weak precipitation induces gyres rather than meridional overturning.

Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

2017-12-01

Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku; Sannino, Gianmaria

2017-05-01

We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air-sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of the inter-annual anomaly of surface air temperature and precipitation (P) over defined sub-regions. The Mediterranean water budget (E, P and E-P) estimates also show that the coupled model has high skill in the representation of water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. To conclude, the coupled model reproduces climatological land surface fields and the sea surface variables in the range of observation uncertainty and allow studying air-sea interaction and main regional climate characteristics of the basin.

Some effects of topography, soil moisture, and sea-surface temperature on continental precipitation as computed with the GISS coarse mesh climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.

1981-01-01

The effects of terrain elevation, soil moisture, and zonal variations in sea/surface temperature on the mean daily precipitation rates over Australia, Africa, and South America in January were evaluated. It is suggested that evaporation of soil moisture may either increase or decrease the model generated precipitation, depending on the surface albedo. It was found that a flat, dry continent model best simulates the January rainfall over Australia and South America, while over Africa the simulation is improved by the inclusion of surface physics, specifically soil moisture and albedo variations.

GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS: A two scale nonlinear fractal sea surface model in a one dimensional deep sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Tao; Zou, Guang-Hui; William, Perrie; Kuang, Hai-Lan; Chen, Wei

2010-05-01

Using the theory of nonlinear interactions between long and short waves, a nonlinear fractal sea surface model is presented for a one dimensional deep sea. Numerical simulation results show that spectra intensity changes at different locations (in both the wave number domain and temporal-frequency domain), and the system obeys the energy conservation principle. Finally, a method to limit the fractal parameters is also presented to ensure that the model system does not become ill-posed.

Studies on the oil spillage near shorline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voicu, I.; Dumitrescu, L. G.; Panaitescu, V. F.; Panaitescu, M.

2017-08-01

This paper presents a simulation of an oil spillage near shoreline in real conditions. The purpose of the paper is to determine the evolution of oil spill on sea water surface and in the same time to determine the total costs of depolluting operations organized by the authorities. The simulation is made on the PISCES II Simulator (Potential Incident Simulator Control and Evaluation System) which is designed to handle on real situations such as oil pollutions of the sea. The mathematical model used by the simulator is the dispersion oil-water model, taking account all external conditions such as air/sea water temperature, current/wind speed and direction, sea water density, petroleum physical properties. In the conclusions chapter is presented oil spill details with a financial report for total costs of depolluting operation.

The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven; Waugh, Darryn

2014-01-01

Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.

Simulating the Cyclone Induced Turbulent Mixing in the Bay of Bengal using COAWST Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, K. R.; Nigam, T.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

Mixing in the upper oceanic layers (up to a few tens of meters from surface) is an important process to understand the evolution of sea surface properties. Enhanced mixing due to strong wind forcing at surface leads to deepening of mixed layer that affects the air-sea exchange of heat and momentum fluxes and modulates sea surface temperature (SST). In the present study, we used Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model to demonstrate and quantify the enhanced cyclone induced turbulent mixing in case of a severe cyclonic storm. The COAWST model was configured over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and used to simulate the atmospheric and oceanic conditions prevailing during the tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin that occurred over the BoB during 10-15 October 2013. The model simulated cyclone track was validated with IMD best-track and model SST validated with daily AVHRR SST data. Validation shows that model simulated track & intensity, SST and salinity were in good agreement with observations and the cyclone induced cooling of the sea surface was well captured by the model. Model simulations show a considerable deepening (by 10-15 m) of the mixed layer and shoaling of thermocline during TC Phailin. The power spectrum analysis was performed on the zonal and meridional baroclinic current components, which shows strongest energy at 14 m depth. Model results were analyzed to investigate the non-uniform energy distribution in the water column from surface up to the thermocline depth. The rotary spectra analysis highlights the downward direction of turbulent mixing during the TC Phailin period. Model simulations were used to quantify and interpret the near-inertial mixing, which were generated by cyclone induced strong wind stress and the near-inertial energy. These near-inertial oscillations are responsible for the enhancement of the mixing operative in the strong post-monsoon (October-November) stratification in the BoB.

Research on the Additional Secondary Phase Factor for Automatic Identification System Signals Transmitted over a Rough Sea Surface

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shufang; Sun, Xiaowen

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the Additional Secondary Phase Factor (ASF) characteristics of Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals spreading over a rough sea surface. According to the change of the ASFs for AIS signals in different signal form, the influences of the different propagation conditions on the ASFs are analyzed. The expression, numerical calculation, and simulation analysis of the ASFs of AIS signal are performed in the rough sea surface. The results contribute to the high-accuracy propagation delay measurement of AIS signals spreading over the rough sea surface as, well as providing a reference for reliable communication link design in marine engineering for Very High Frequency (VHF) signals. PMID:29462995

Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Northern Gulf Coast Land/Sea Breeze

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Blackwell, Keith; Suggs, Ron; McNider, Richard T.; Jedlovec, Gary; Kimball, Sytske; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSU/NCAR MM5 V3-4 and applied on a 4-km domain for this particular application. It is recognized that a 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Analysis of reactive bromine production and ozone depletion in the Arctic boundary layer using 3-D simulations with GEM-AQ: inference from synoptic-scale patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyota, K.; McConnell, J. C.; Lupu, A.; Neary, L.; McLinden, C. A.; Richter, A.; Kwok, R.; Semeniuk, K.; Kaminski, J. W.; Gong, S.-L.; Jarosz, J.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Sioris, C. E.

2011-04-01

Episodes of high bromine levels and surface ozone depletion in the springtime Arctic are simulated by an online air-quality model, GEM-AQ, with gas-phase and heterogeneous reactions of inorganic bromine species and a simple scheme of air-snowpack chemical interactions implemented for this study. Snowpack on sea ice is assumed to be the only source of bromine to the atmosphere and to be capable of converting relatively stable bromine species to photolabile Br2 via air-snowpack interactions. A set of sensitivity model runs are performed for April 2001 at a horizontal resolution of approximately 100 km×100 km in the Arctic, to provide insights into the effects of temperature and the age (first-year, FY, versus multi-year, MY) of sea ice on the release of reactive bromine to the atmosphere. The model simulations capture much of the temporal variations in surface ozone mixing ratios as observed at stations in the high Arctic and the synoptic-scale evolution of areas with enhanced BrO column amount ("BrO clouds") as estimated from satellite observations. The simulated "BrO clouds" are in modestly better agreement with the satellite measurements when the FY sea ice is assumed to be more efficient at releasing reactive bromine to the atmosphere than on the MY sea ice. Surface ozone data from coastal stations used in this study are not sufficient to evaluate unambiguously the difference between the FY sea ice and the MY sea ice as a source of bromine. The results strongly suggest that reactive bromine is released ubiquitously from the snow on the sea ice during the Arctic spring while the timing and location of the bromine release are largely controlled by meteorological factors. It appears that a rapid advection and an enhanced turbulent diffusion associated with strong boundary-layer winds drive transport and dispersion of ozone to the near-surface air over the sea ice, increasing the oxidation rate of bromide (Br-) in the surface snow. Also, if indeed the surface snowpack does supply most of the reactive bromine in the Arctic boundary layer, it appears to be capable of releasing reactive bromine at temperatures as high as -10 °C, particularly on the sea ice in the central and eastern Arctic Ocean. Dynamically-induced BrO column variability in the lowermost stratosphere appears to interfere with the use of satellite BrO column measurements for interpreting BrO variability in the lower troposphere but probably not to the extent of totally obscuring "BrO clouds" that originate from the surface snow/ice source of bromine in the high Arctic. A budget analysis of the simulated air-surface exchange of bromine compounds suggests that a "bromine explosion" occurs in the interstitial air of the snowpack and/or is accelerated by heterogeneous reactions on the surface of wind-blown snow in ambient air, both of which are not represented explicitly in our simple model but could have been approximated by a parameter adjustment for the yield of Br2 from the trigger.

Surface signature of Mediterranean water eddies in a long-term high-resolution simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciani, D.; Carton, X.; Barbosa Aguiar, A. C.; Peliz, A.; Bashmachnikov, I.; Ienna, F.; Chapron, B.; Santoleri, R.

2017-12-01

We study the surface signatures of Mediterranean water eddies (Meddies) in the context of a regional, primitive equations model simulation (using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System, ROMS). This model simulation was previously performed to study the mean characteristics and pathways of Meddies during their evolution in the Atlantic Ocean. The advantage of our approach is to take into account different physical mechanisms acting on the evolution of Meddies and their surface signature, having full information on the 3D distribution of all physical variables of interest. The evolution of around 90 long-lived Meddies (whose lifetimes exceeded one year) was investigated. In particular, their surface signature was determined in sea-surface height, temperature and salinity. The Meddy-induced anomalies were studied as a function of the Meddy structure and of the oceanic background. We show that the Meddies can generate positive anomalies in the elevation of the oceanic free-surface and that these anomalies are principally related to the Meddies potential vorticity structure at depth (around 1000 m below the sea-surface). On the contrary, the Meddies thermohaline surface signatures proved to be mostly dominated by local surface conditions and little correlated to the Meddy structure at depth. This work essentially points out that satellite altimetry is the most suitable approach to track subsurface vortices from observations of the sea-surface.

Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Impact of wave mixing on the sea ice cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Madec, Gurvan; Nurser, George; Feltham, Daniel

2017-04-01

As information on surface waves in ice-covered regions becomes available in ice-ocean models, there is an opportunity to model wave-related processes more accurate. Breaking waves cause mixing of the upper water column and present mixing schemes in ocean models take this into account through surface roughness. A commonly used approach is to calculate surface roughness from significant wave height, parameterised from wind speed. We present results from simulations using modelled significant wave height instead, which accounts for the presence of sea ice and the effect of swell. The simulations use the NEMO ocean model coupled to the CICE sea ice model, with wave information from the ECWAM model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new waves-in-ice module allows waves to propagate in sea ice and attenuates waves according to multiple scattering and non-elastic losses. It is found that in the simulations with wave mixing the mixed layer depth (MLD) under ice cover is reduced, since the parameterisation from wind speed overestimates wave height in the ice-covered regions. The MLD change, in turn, affects sea ice concentration and ice thickness. In the Arctic, reduced MLD in winter translates into increased ice thicknesses overall, with higher increases in the Western Arctic and decreases along the Siberian coast. In summer, shallowing of the mixed layer results in more heat accumulating in the surface ocean, increasing ice melting. In the Southern Ocean the meridional gradient in ice thickness and concentration is increased. We argue that coupling waves with sea ice - ocean models can reduce negative biases in sea ice cover, affecting the distribution of nutrients and, thus, biological productivity and ecosystems. This coupling will become more important in the future, when wave heights in a large part of the Arctic are expected to increase due to sea ice retreat and a larger wave fetch. Therefore, wave mixing constitutes a possible positive feedback mechanism.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

2012-01-01

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

A cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs and RCSM simulations over the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Errico, Miriam; Planton, Serge; Nabat, Pierre

2017-04-01

A first objective of this study, conducted in the framework of the Climate Modelling Users Group (CMUG), one of the projects of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program, is a cross-assessment of simulations of a Med-CORDEX regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM5) and a sub-set of atmosphere, marine and surface interrelated Satellite-Derived Essential Climate Variables (CCI-ECVs) (i.e. sea surface temperature, sea level, aerosols and soil moisture content) over the Mediterranean area. The consistency between the model and the CCI-ECVs is evaluated through the analysis of a climate specific event that can be observed with the CCI-ECVs, in atmospheric reanalysis and reproduced in the RCSM simulations. In this presentation we focus on the July 2006 heat wave that affected the western part of the Mediterranean continental and marine area. The application of a spectral nudging method using ERA-Interim reanalysis in our simulation allows to reproduce this event with a proper chronology. As a result we show that the consistency between the simulated model aerosol optical depth and the ECV products (being produced by the ESA Aerosol CCI project consortium) depends on the choice of the algorithm used to infer the variable from the satellite observations. In particular the heat wave main characteristics become consistent between the model and the satellite-derived observations for sea surface temperature, soil moisture and sea level. The link between the atmospheric circulation and the aerosols distribution is also investigated.

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

A numerical study of the effects of a large sandbar upon sea breeze development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, R. C.; Pielke, R. A.; Mcqueen, J.; Eppel, D.

1985-01-01

Two-dimensional numerical simulations of sea breeze development over a large sandbar on the North Sea coast of Germany are reported. The numerical model used in these experiments contains a detailed treatment of soil moisture, which allows evaluation of the effects of differential surface characteristics on the airflow pattern. Results of the simulations indicate that the contrast between the moist sandbar and adjacent dry land, the tidal inundation of the sandbar, and the westward penetration of the Baltic sea breeze play important roles in the development of mesoscale airflow patterns in the sandbar region.

Influence of the Aral Sea negative water balance on its seasonal circulation and ventilation patterns: use of a 3d hydrodynamic model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirjacobs, D.; Grégoire, M.; Delhez, E.; Nihoul, J.

2003-04-01

Within the context of the EU INCO-COPERNICUS program "Desertification in the Aral Sea Region: A study of the Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts" (Contract IAC2-CT-2000-10023), a large-scale 3D hydrodynamic model was adapted to address specifically the macroscale processes affecting the Aral Sea water circulation and ventilation. The particular goal of this research is to simulate the effect of lasting negative water balance on the 3D seasonal circulation, temperature, salinity and water-mixing fields of the Aral Sea. The original Aral Sea seasonal hydrodynamism is simulated with the average seasonal forcings corresponding to the period from 1956 to 1960. This first investigation concerns a period of relative stability of the water balance, before the beginning of the drying process. The consequences of the drying process on the hydrodynamic of the Sea will be studied by comparing this first results with the simulation representing the average situation for the years 1981 to 1985, a very low river flow period. For both simulation periods, the forcing considered are the seasonal fluctuations of wind fields, precipitation, evaporation, river discharge and salinity, cloud cover, air temperature and humidity. The meteorological forcings were adapted to the common optimum one-month temporal resolution of the available data sets. Monthly mean kinetic energy flux and surface tensions were calculated from daily ECMWF wind data. Monthly in situ precipitation, surface air temperature and humidity fields were interpolated from data obtained from the Russian Hydrological and Meteorological Institute. Monthly water discharge and average salinity of the river water were considered for both Amu Darya and Syr Darya river over each simulation periods. The water mass conservation routines allowed the simulation of a changing coastline by taking into account local drying and flooding events of particular grid points. Preliminary barotropic runs were realised (for the 1951-1960 situation, before drying up began) in order to get a first experience of the behaviour of the hydrodynamic model. These first runs provide results about the evolution of the following state variables: elevation of the sea surface, 3D fields of vertical and horizontal flows, 2D fields of average horizontal flows and finally the 3D fields of turbulent kinetic energy. The mean seasonal salinity and temperature fields (in-situ data gathered by the Russian Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) are available for the two simulated periods and will allow a first validation of the hydrodynamic model. Various satellites products were identified, collected and processed in the frame of this research project and will be used for the validation of the model outputs. Seasonal level changes measurements derived from water table change will serve for water balance validation and sea surface temperature for hydrodynamics validation.

Reassessment of ice-age cooling of the tropical ocean and atmosphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Mix, A.C.

1999-01-01

The CLIMAP project's reconstruction of past sea surface temperature inferred limited ice-age cooling in the tropical oceans. This conclusion has been controversial, however, because of the greater cooling indicated by other terrestrial and ocean proxy data. A new faunal sea surface temperature reconstruction, calibrated using the variation of foraminiferal species through time, better represents ice-age faunal assemblages and so reveals greater cooling than CLIMAP in the equatorial current systems of the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic oceans. Here we explore the climatic implications of this revised sea surface temperature field for the Last Glacial Maximum using an atmospheric general circulation model. Relative to model results obtained using CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, the cooler equatorial oceans modify seasonal air temperatures by 1-2??C or more across parts of South America, Africa and southeast Asia and cause attendant changes in regional moisture patterns. In our simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, the Amazon lowlands, for example, are cooler and drier, whereas the Andean highlands are cooler and wetter than the control simulation. Our results may help to resolve some of the apparent disagreements between oceanic and continental proxy climate data. Moreover, they suggest a wind-related mechanism for enhancing the export of water vapour from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific oceans, which may link variations in deep-water production and high-latitude climate changes to equatorial sea surface temperatures.

Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

2017-12-01

The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

File Specification for the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero): MODIS AOD Assimilation based on a MERRA Replay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Da Silva, A. M.; Randles, C. A.; Buchard, V.; Darmenov, A.; Colarco, P. R.; Govindaraju, R.

2015-01-01

This document describes the gridded output files produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS) from July 2002 through December 2014. The MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) is produced with the hydrostatic version of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). In addition to standard meteorological parameters (wind, temperature, moisture, surface pressure), this simulation includes 15 aerosol tracers (dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon), ozone, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. This model simulation is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice, daily volcanic and biomass burning emissions, as well as high-resolution inventories of anthropogenic emission sources. Meteorology is replayed from the MERRA Reanalysis.

Electromagnetic backscattering from one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface II: Electromagnetic backscattering model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Xie; William, Perrie; Shang-Zhuo, Zhao; He, Fang; Wen-Jin, Yu; Yi-Jun, He

2016-07-01

Sea surface current has a significant influence on electromagnetic (EM) backscattering signals and may constitute a dominant synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging mechanism. An effective EM backscattering model for a one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface is presented in this paper. This model is used to simulate EM backscattering signals from the drifting sea surface. Numerical results show that ocean currents have a significant influence on EM backscattering signals from the sea surface. The normalized radar cross section (NRCS) discrepancies between the model for a coupled wave-current fractal sea surface and the model for an uncoupled fractal sea surface increase with the increase of incidence angle, as well as with increasing ocean currents. Ocean currents that are parallel to the direction of the wave can weaken the EM backscattering signal intensity, while the EM backscattering signal is intensified by ocean currents propagating oppositely to the wave direction. The model presented in this paper can be used to study the SAR imaging mechanism for a drifting sea surface. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41276187), the Global Change Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953901), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, China, the Program for the Innovation Research and Entrepreneurship Team in Jiangsu Province, China, the Canadian Program on Energy Research and Development, and the Canadian World Class Tanker Safety Service Program.

Experimental validation of the MODTRAN 5.3 sea surface radiance model using MIRAMER campaign measurements.

PubMed

Ross, Vincent; Dion, Denis; St-Germain, Daniel

2012-05-01

Radiometric images taken in mid-wave and long-wave infrared bands are used as a basis for validating a sea surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) being implemented into MODTRAN 5 (Berk et al. [Proc. SPIE5806, 662 (2005)]). The images were obtained during the MIRAMER campaign that took place in May 2008 in the Mediterranean Sea near Toulon, France. When atmosphere radiances are matched at the horizon to remove possible calibration offsets, the implementation of the BRDF in MODTRAN produces good sea surface radiance agreement, usually within 2% and at worst 4% from off-glint azimuthally averaged measurements. Simulations also compare quite favorably to glint measurements. The observed sea radiance deviations between model and measurements are not systematic, and are well within expected experimental uncertainties. This is largely attributed to proper radiative coupling between the surface and the atmosphere implemented using the DISORT multiple scattering algorithm.

Estimation of sea surface temperature from remote measurements in the 11-13 micron window region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Conrath, B. J.; Kunde, V. G.

1972-01-01

The Nimbus-4 IRIS data was examined in the spectral region 775 to 1250/cm (8-13 microns) for useful information to determine the sea surface temperature. The high spectral resolution data of IRIS was degraded to low resolution by averaging to simulate a multi-channel radiometer in the window region. These simulated data show that within the region 775-975/cm (12.9-10.25 microns) the brightness temperatures are linearly related to the absorption parameters. Such a linear relationship is observed over cloudy as well as clear regions and over a wide range of latitudes. From this linear relationship it is feasible to correct for the atmospheric attenuation and get the sea surface temperature, accurate to within 1 K, in a cloud free field of view. The information about the cloud cover is taken from the TV pictures and BUV albedo measurements on board the Nimbus-4 satellite.

The seasonal sea-ice zone in the glacial Southern Ocean as a carbon sink.

PubMed

Abelmann, Andrea; Gersonde, Rainer; Knorr, Gregor; Zhang, Xu; Chapligin, Bernhard; Maier, Edith; Esper, Oliver; Friedrichsen, Hans; Lohmann, Gerrit; Meyer, Hanno; Tiedemann, Ralf

2015-09-18

Reduced surface-deep ocean exchange and enhanced nutrient consumption by phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean have been linked to lower glacial atmospheric CO2. However, identification of the biological and physical conditions involved and the related processes remains incomplete. Here we specify Southern Ocean surface-subsurface contrasts using a new tool, the combined oxygen and silicon isotope measurement of diatom and radiolarian opal, in combination with numerical simulations. Our data do not indicate a permanent glacial halocline related to melt water from icebergs. Corroborated by numerical simulations, we find that glacial surface stratification was variable and linked to seasonal sea-ice changes. During glacial spring-summer, the mixed layer was relatively shallow, while deeper mixing occurred during fall-winter, allowing for surface-ocean refueling with nutrients from the deep reservoir, which was potentially richer in nutrients than today. This generated specific carbon and opal export regimes turning the glacial seasonal sea-ice zone into a carbon sink.

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

PubMed Central

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

2016-01-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

PubMed

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

Hybrid Eulerian and Lagrangian Simulation of Steep and Breaking Waves and Surface Fluxes in High Winds

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

Lagrangian methods for free - surface turbulence and wave simulation . In the far field, coupled wind and wave simulations are used to obtain wind...to conserve the mass precisely. When the wave breaks, the flow at the free surface may become very violent, air and water may be highly mixed...fluids free - surface flows that can be used to study the fundamental physics of wave breaking. The research will improve the understanding of air-sea

Role of the Tropical Pacific in recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codron, F.; Bardet, D.; Allouache, C.; Gastineau, G.; Friedman, A. R.; Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.

2017-12-01

The recent (up to 2016) trends in Antarctic sea-ice cover - a global increase masking a dipole between the Ross and Bellingshausen-Weddel seas - are still not well understood, and not reproduced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. We here explore the potential role of atmospheric circulation changes around the Amundsen Sea, themselves possibly forced by tropical SSTs, an explanation that has been recently advanced. As a first check on this hypothesis, we compare the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by atmospheric GCMs coupled with an ocean or with imposed SSTs (AMIP experiment from CMIP5); the latter being in theory able to reproduce changes caused by natural SST variability. While coupled models simulate in aggregate trends that project on the SAM structure, strongest in summer, the AMIP simulations add in the winter season a pronounced Amundsen Sea Low signature (and a PNA signature in the northern hemisphere) both consistent with a Niña-like trend in the tropical Pacific. We then use a specific coupled GCM setup, in which surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific are strongly nudged towards the observed ones, including their interannual variability, but the model is free to evolve elsewhere. The two GCMs used then simulate a deepening trend in the Amundsen-Sea Low in winter, and are able to reproduce a dipole in sea-ice cover. Further analysis shows that the sea-ice dipole is partially forced by surface heat flux anomalies in early winter - the extent varying with the region and GCM used. The turbulent heat fluxes then act to damp the anomalies in late winter, which may however be maintained by ice-albedo feedbacks.

Influence of air-sea coupling on Indian Ocean tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lengaigne, Matthieu; Neetu, S.; Samson, Guillaume; Vialard, Jérôme; Krishnamohan, K. S.; Masson, Sébastien; Jullien, Swen; Suresh, I.; Menkes, Christophe E.

2018-02-01

This paper assesses the impact of air-sea coupling on Indian Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) by comparing a 20-year long simulation of a ¼° regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with a twin experiment, where the atmospheric component is forced by sea surface temperature from the coupled simulation. The coupled simulation reproduces the observed spatio-temporal TCs distribution and TC-induced surface cooling reasonably well, but overestimates the number of TCs. Air-sea coupling does not affect the cyclogenesis spatial distribution but reduces the number of TCs by 20% and yields a better-resolved bimodal seasonal distribution in the northern hemisphere. Coupling also affects intensity distribution, inducing a four-fold decrease in the proportion of intense TCs (Cat-2 and stronger). Air-sea coupling damps TCs growth through a reduction of inner-core upward enthalpy fluxes due to the TC-induced cooling. This reduction is particularly large for the most intense TCs of the northern Indian Ocean (up to 250 W m-2), due to higher ambient surface temperatures and larger TC-induced cooling there. The negative feedback of air-sea coupling on strongest TCs is mainly associated with slow-moving storms, which spend more time over the cold wake they induce. Sensitivity experiments using a different convective parameterization yield qualitatively similar results, with a larger ( 65%) reduction in the number of TCs. Because of their relatively coarse resolution (¼°), both set of experiments however fail to reproduce the most intense observed TCs. Further studies with finer resolution models in the Bay of Bengal will be needed to assess the expectedly large impact of air-sea coupling on those intense and deadly TCs.

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

2016-02-01

In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

Wind-driven Sea-Ice Changes Intensify Subsurface Warm Water Intrusion into the West Antarctic Land Ice Front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Gille, S. T.; shang-Ping, X.; Xie, S. P.; Holland, D. M.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The climate change observed around Antarctica in recent decades is characterized by distinct zonally asymmetric patterns, with the strongest changes over West Antarctica. These changes are marked by strong land ice melting and sea ice redistribution around West Antarctica. This is associated with temperature and circulation anomalies in the ocean and atmosphere around the same area. In this study, we comprehensively examine the coherency between these changes using a combination of observations and numerical simulations. Results show that the atmospheric circulation changes distinctly drive the changes in ocean circulation and sea ice distribution. In addition, the atmospheric circulation induced sea ice changes play an important role in lifting the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity around the West Antarctica. During recent decades, the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) has deepened, especially in austral autumn and winter. This deepened ASL has intensified the offshore wind near the coastal regions of the Ross Sea. Driven by these atmospheric changes, more sea ice has formed near West Antarctica in winter. In contrast, more sea ice melts during the summer. This strengthened sea ice seasonality has been observed and successfully reproduced in the model simulation. The wind-driven sea ice changes causes a surface freshening over the Ross and Amundsen Seas, with a subsurface salinity increase over the Ross Sea. The additional fresh/salt water fluxes thus further change the vertical distribution of salinity and strengthen the stratification in the Ross and Amundsen Seas. As a result of the above ice-ocean process, the mixed-layer depth around the Ross and Amundsen Seas shallows. By weakening the vertical heat transport near the surface layer, and inducing an upward movement of the circumpolar deep water (CDW), this process freshened and cooled the surface layer, while the salinity and temperature in the sub-surface ocean are increased, extending from 150 meters to >700 meters. Around the Amundsen Sea, warm water touches the continent, which could potentially contribute to the accelerated land ice melting over this area.

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model.

PubMed

Tsamados, Michel; Feltham, Daniel; Petty, Alek; Schroeder, David; Flocco, Daniela

2015-10-13

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice-atmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice-ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities. © 2015 The Author(s).

CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Wang, X. L.; Swart, N.

2018-03-01

This study presents simulations of the global ocean wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1979-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. To tackle the numerical complexities associated with the inclusion of the North Pole, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model was used with a customized unstructured Spherical Multi-Cell grid of ∼100 km offshore and ∼50 km along coastlines. The climate model simulated wind and sea ice data, and the corresponding WW3 simulated wave data, were evaluated against reanalysis and hindcast data. The results show that all the five sets of wave simulations projected lower waves in the North Atlantic, corresponding to decreased surface wind speeds there in the warmer climate. The selected CMIP5 models also consistently projected an increase in the surface wind speed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-high latitudes, which translates in an increase in the WW3 simulated significant wave height (Hs) there. The higher waves are accompanied with increased peak wave period and increased wave age in the East Pacific and Indian Oceans, and a significant counterclockwise rotation in the mean wave direction in the Southern Oceans. The latter is caused by more intense waves from the SH traveling equatorward and developing into swells. Future wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in summer is projected to be predominantly of mixed sea states, with the climatological mean of September maximum Hs ranging mostly 3-4 m. The new waves approaching Arctic coasts will be less fetch-limited as ice retreats since a predominantly southwards mean wave direction is projected in the surrounding seas.

Predicting the Arctic Ocean Environment in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, George

2015-04-01

Recent environmental changes in the Arctic have clearly demonstrated that climate change is faster and more vigorously in the Polar Regions than anywhere else. Significantly, change in the Arctic Ocean (AO) environment presents a variety of impacts, from ecological to social-economic and political. Mitigation of this change and adaptation to it requires detailed and robust environmental predictions. Here we present a detailed projection of ocean circulation and sea ice from the present until 2099, based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the NEMO ¼ degree ocean model. The model is forced at the surface with HadGEM2-ES atmosphere model output from the UK Met. Office IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The HadGEM2-ES simulations span 1860-2099 and are one of an ensemble of runs performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and IPCC AR5. Between 2000-2009 and 2090-2099 the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increasing on average by about 4° C, particularly in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. By the end of the simulation, Arctic sea ice has an average annual thickness of less than 10 cm in the central AO, and less than 0.5 m in the East-Siberian Sea and Canadian Archipelago, and disappears entirely during the Arctic summer. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface waves leads to the Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In winter, sea ice persists until the 2030s; then it sharply declines and disappears from the Central Arctic Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with MIZ provinces remaining in winter along the Siberian, Alaskan coasts and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Analysis of the AO circulation reveals evidence of (i) the reversal of the Arctic boundary currents in the Canadian Basin, from a weak cyclonic current in 2040-2049 to a strong anti-cyclonic current in 2090-2099, and (ii) increased anti-cyclonic surface ocean circulation in the eastern part of the AO, while the surface circulation in the western Arctic becomes more cyclonic. We relate the shift in the circulation to changes in the winds and reduction of sea ice cover, which modify momentum transfer from atmosphere to the ocean. Our simulation suggests a potentially complex picture of future AO change, and highlights the importance of high resolution modelling in forecasting it.

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downes, Stephanie M.; Farneti, Riccardo; Uotila, Petteri; Griffies, Stephen M.; Marsland, Simon J.; Bailey, David; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne;

Quantifying the drivers of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauderdale, Jonathan M.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Williams, Richard G.; Follows, Michael J.

2016-07-01

A mechanistic framework for quantitatively mapping the regional drivers of air-sea CO2 fluxes at a global scale is developed. The framework evaluates the interplay between (1) surface heat and freshwater fluxes that influence the potential saturated carbon concentration, which depends on changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and alkalinity, (2) a residual, disequilibrium flux influenced by upwelling and entrainment of remineralized carbon- and nutrient-rich waters from the ocean interior, as well as rapid subduction of surface waters, (3) carbon uptake and export by biological activity as both soft tissue and carbonate, and (4) the effect on surface carbon concentrations due to freshwater precipitation or evaporation. In a steady state simulation of a coarse-resolution ocean circulation and biogeochemistry model, the sum of the individually determined components is close to the known total flux of the simulation. The leading order balance, identified in different dynamical regimes, is between the CO2 fluxes driven by surface heat fluxes and a combination of biologically driven carbon uptake and disequilibrium-driven carbon outgassing. The framework is still able to reconstruct simulated fluxes when evaluated using monthly averaged data and takes a form that can be applied consistently in models of different complexity and observations of the ocean. In this way, the framework may reveal differences in the balance of drivers acting across an ensemble of climate model simulations or be applied to an analysis and interpretation of the observed, real-world air-sea flux of CO2.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

2015-01-01

Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models. PMID:26499262

A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea.

PubMed

Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

2015-10-26

Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

2015-10-01

Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.

Conjunction of 2D and 3D modified flow solvers for simulating spatio-temporal wind induced hydrodynamics in the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad; Sabbagh-Yazdi, Saeed-Reza

2010-06-01

The main objective of this study is the simulation of flow dynamics in the deep parts of the Caspian Sea, in which the southern and middle deep regions are surrounded by considerable areas of shallow zones. To simulate spatio-temporal wind induced hydrodynamics in deep waters, a conjunctive numerical model consisting of a 2D depth average model and a 3D pseudo compressible model is proposed. The 2D model is applied to determine time dependent free surface oscillations as well as the surface velocity patterns and is conjunct to the 3D flow solver for computing three-dimensional velocity and pressure fields which coverage to steady state for the top boundary condition. The modified 2D and 3D sets of equations are conjunct considering interface shear stresses. Both sets of 2D and 3D equations are solved on unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes using the Galerkin Finite Volume Method. The conjunctive model is utilized to investigate the deep currents affected by wind, Coriolis forces and the river inflow conditions of the Caspian Sea. In this study, the simulation of flow field due to major winds as well as transient winds in the Caspian Sea during a period of 6 hours in the winter season has been conducted and the numerical results for water surface level are then compared to the 2D numerical results.

Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

2017-12-01

While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform seasonally during Polar winter. However, despite seasonal sea ice change, if and where its thickness remains below this critical threshold, the Arctic Ocean will continue interacting with the overlying atmosphere and contributing to Arctic amplification during the cold season.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Arctic Sea Ice: A Comparison between AO-FVCOM and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, C.; Beardsley, R. C.; Gao, G.; Qi, J.; Lin, H.

2016-02-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the Arctic sea ice over the period 1978-2014. Good agreements were found between simulated and observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, indicating that the AO-FVCOM captured not only the seasonal and interannual variability but also the spatial distribution of the sea ice in the Arctic in the past 37 years. Compared with other six Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher correlation coefficient and a smaller difference with observations. An effort was also made to examine the physical processes attributing to the model-produced bias in the sea ice simulation. The error in the direction of the ice drift velocity was sensitive to the wind turning angle; smaller when the wind was stronger, but larger when the wind was weaker. This error could lead to the bias in the near-surface current in the fully or partially ice-covered zone where the ice-sea interfacial stress was a major driving force.

Modeling of Antarctic Sea Ice in a General Circulation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xingren; Simmonds, Ian; Budd, W. F.

1997-04-01

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is developed and coupled with the Melbourne University general circulation model to simulate the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice distribution. The model is efficient, rapid to compute, and useful for a range of climate studies. The thermodynamic part of the sea ice model is similar to that developed by Parkinson and Washington, the dynamics contain a simplified ice rheology that resists compression. The thermodynamics is based on energy conservation at the top surface of the ice/snow, the ice/water interface, and the open water area to determine the ice formation, accretion, and ablation. A lead parameterization is introduced with an effective partitioning scheme for freezing between and under the ice floes. The dynamic calculation determines the motion of ice, which is forced with the atmospheric wind, taking account of ice resistance and rafting. The simulated sea ice distribution compares reasonably well with observations. The seasonal cycle of ice extent is well simulated in phase as well as in magnitude. Simulated sea ice thickness and concentration are also in good agreement with observations over most regions and serve to indicate the importance of advection and ocean drift in the determination of the sea ice distribution.

An assessment of TropFlux and NCEP air-sea fluxes on ROMS simulations over the Bay of Bengal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Dipanjan; Sil, Sourav; Jana, Sudip; Pramanik, Saikat; Pandey, P. C.

2017-12-01

This study presents an assessment of the TropFlux and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis air-sea fluxes in simulating the surface and subsurface oceanic parameters over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during 2002-2014 using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). The assessment has been made by comparing the simulated fields with in-situ and satellite observations. The simulated surface and subsurface temperatures in the TropFlux forced experiment (TropFlux-E) show better agreement with the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) and Argo observations than the NCEP forced experiment (NCEP-E). The BoB domain averaged sea surface temperature (SST) simulated in the NCEP-E is consistently cooler than the satellite SST, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.79 °C. Moreover, NCEP-E shows a limitation in simulating the observed seasonal cycle of the SST due to substantial underestimation of the pre-monsoon SST peak. These limitations are mostly due to the lower values of the NCEP net heat flux. The seasonal and interannual variations of SST in the TropFlux-E are better comparable to the observations with correlations and skills more than 0.80 and 0.90 respectively. However, SST is overestimated during summer monsoon periods mainly due to higher net heat flux. The superiority of TropFlux forcing over the NCEP reanalysis can also be seen when simulating the interannual variabilities of the magnitude and vertical extent of Wyrtki jets at two equatorial RAMA buoy locations. The jet is weaker in the NCEP-E relative to the TropFlux-E and observations. The simulated sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from both the experiments are able to capture the regions of positive and negative SSHA with respect to satellite-derived altimeter data with better performance in the TropFlux-E. The speed of the westward propagating Rossby wave along 18°N in the TropFlux-E is found to be about 4.7 cm/s, which is close to the theoretical phase speed of Rossby waves.

Cloud-Scale Numerical Modeling of the Arctic Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krueger, Steven K.

1998-01-01

The interactions between sea ice, open ocean, atmospheric radiation, and clouds over the Arctic Ocean exert a strong influence on global climate. Uncertainties in the formulation of interactive air-sea-ice processes in global climate models (GCMs) result in large differences between the Arctic, and global, climates simulated by different models. Arctic stratus clouds are not well-simulated by GCMs, yet exert a strong influence on the surface energy budget of the Arctic. Leads (channels of open water in sea ice) have significant impacts on the large-scale budgets during the Arctic winter, when they contribute about 50 percent of the surface fluxes over the Arctic Ocean, but cover only 1 to 2 percent of its area. Convective plumes generated by wide leads may penetrate the surface inversion and produce condensate that spreads up to 250 km downwind of the lead, and may significantly affect the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface and thereby the sea ice thickness. The effects of leads and boundary layer clouds must be accurately represented in climate models to allow possible feedbacks between them and the sea ice thickness. The FIRE III Arctic boundary layer clouds field program, in conjunction with the SHEBA ice camp and the ARM North Slope of Alaska and Adjacent Arctic Ocean site, will offer an unprecedented opportunity to greatly improve our ability to parameterize the important effects of leads and boundary layer clouds in GCMs.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

A case study of sea breeze blocking regulated by sea surface temperature along the English south coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, J. K.; Chagnon, J. M.; Gray, S. L.

2013-09-01

The sensitivity of sea breeze structure to sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal orography is investigated in convection-permitting Met Office Unified Model simulations of a case study along the south coast of England. Changes in SST of 1 K are shown to significantly modify the structure of the sea breeze. On the day of the case study the sea breeze was partially blocked by coastal orography, particularly within Lyme Bay. The extent to which the flow is blocked depends strongly on the static stability of the marine boundary layer. In experiments with colder SST, the marine boundary layer is more stable, and the degree of blocking is more pronounced. The implications of prescribing fixed SST from climatology in numerical weather prediction model forecasts of the sea breeze are discussed.

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

Drivers of Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling over the past four decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew

2017-04-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea-ice coverage has increased overall during the past four decades. In contrast, the majority of CMIP5 models simulate a decline. In addition, Southern Ocean surface waters have largely cooled, in stark contrast to almost all historical CMIP5 simulations. Subantarctic Surface Waters have cooled and freshened while waters to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current have warmed and increased in salinity. It remains unclear as to what extent the cooling and Antarctic sea-ice expansion is due to natural variability versus anthropogenic forcing; due for example to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is also unclear what the respective role of surface buoyancy fluxes is compared to internal ocean circulation changes, and what the implications are for longer-term climate change in the region. In this presentation we will outline three distinct drivers of recent Southern Ocean surface trends that have each made a significant contribution to regional cooling: (1) wind-driven surface cooling and sea-ice expansion due to shifted westerly winds, (2) teleconnections of decadal variability from the tropical Pacific, and (3) surface cooling and ice expansion due to large-scale Southern Ocean freshening, most likely driven by SAM-related precipitation trends over the open ocean. We will also outline the main reasons why climate models for the most part miss these Southern Ocean cooling trends, despite capturing overall trends in the SAM.

Microhydrodynamics of flotation processes in the sea surface layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grammatika, Marianne; Zimmerman, William B.

2001-10-01

The uppermost surface of the ocean forms a peculiarly important ecosystem, the sea surface microlayer (SML). Comprising the top 1-1000 μm of the ocean surface, the SML concentrates many chemical substances, particularly those that are surface active. Important economically as a nursery for fish eggs and larvae, the SML unfortunately is also especially vulnerable to pollution. Contaminants that settle out from the air, have low solubility, or attach to floatable matter tend to accumulate in the SML. Bubbles contribute prominently to the dynamics of air-sea exchanges, playing an important role in geochemical cycling of material in the upper ocean and SML. In addition to the movement of bubbles, the development of a bubble cloud interrelates with the single particle dynamics of all other bubbles and particles. In the early sixties, several in situ oceanographic techniques revealed an "unbelievably immense" number of coastal bubbles of radius 15-300 μm. The spatial and temporal variation of bubble numbers were studied; acoustical oceanographers now use bubbles as tracers to determine ocean processes near the ocean surface. Sea state and rain noises have both been definitively ascribed to the radiation from huge numbers of infant micro bubbles [The Acoustic Bubble. Academic Press, San Diego]. Our research programme aims at constructing a hydrodynamic model for particle transport processes occurring at the microscale, in multi-phase flotation suspensions. Current research addresses bubble and floc microhydrodynamics as building blocks for a microscale transport model. This paper reviews sea surface transport processes in the microlayer and the lower atmosphere, and identifies those amenable to microhydrodynamic modelling and simulation. It presents preliminary simulation results including the multi-body hydrodynamic mobility functions for the modelling of "dynamic bubble filters" and floc suspensions. Hydrodynamic interactions versus spatial anisotropy and size of particle clouds are investigated.

Simulation of global oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by an optimal bulk formulation derived from multi-campaign measurements.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garric, G.; Pirani, A.; Belamari, S.; Caniaux, G.

2006-12-01

order to improve the air/sea interface for the future MERCATOR global ocean operational system, we have implemented the new bulk formulation developed by METEO-FRANCE (French Meteo office) in the MERCATOR 2 degree global ocean-ice coupled model (ORCA2/LIM). A single bulk formulation for the drag, temperature and moisture exchange coefficients is derived from an extended consistent database gathering 10 years of measurements issued from five experiments dedicated to air-sea fluxes estimates (SEMAPHORE, CATCH, FETCH, EQUALANT99 and POMME) in various oceanic basins (from Northern to equatorial Atlantic). The available database (ALBATROS) cover the widest range of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, from very light (0.3 m/s) to very strong (up to 29 m/s) wind speeds, and from unstable to extremely stable atmospheric boundary layer stratification. We have defined a work strategy to test this new formulation in a global oceanic context, by using this multi- campaign bulk formulation to derive air-sea fluxes from base meteorological variables produces by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range and Weather Forecast) atmospheric forecast model, in order to get surface boundary conditions for ORCA2/LIM. The simulated oceanic upper layers forced at the surface by the previous air/sea interface are compared to those forced by the optimal bulk formulation. Consecutively with generally weaker transfer coefficient, the latter formulation reduces the cold bias in the equatorial Pacific and increases the too weak summer sea ice extent in Antarctica. Compared to a recent mixed layer depth (MLD) climatology, the optimal bulk formulation reduces also the too deep simulated MLDs. Comparison with in situ temperature and salinity profiles in different areas allowed us to evaluate the impact of changing the air/sea interface in the vertical structure.

Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

2016-01-01

The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

Hydrological and biogeochemical response of the Mediterranean Sea to freshwater flow changes for the end of the 21st century.

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Stips, Adolf; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-01-01

We evaluate the changes on the hydrological (temperature and salinity) and biogeochemical (phytoplankton biomass) characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea induced by freshwater flow modifications under two different scenarios for the end of the 21st century. An ensemble of four regional climate model realizations using different global circulation models at the boundary and different emission scenarios are used to force a single ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea. Freshwater flow is modified according to the simulated changes in the precipitation rates for the different rivers' catchment regions. To isolate the effect resulting from a change in freshwater flow, model results are evaluated against a 'baseline' simulation realized assuming a constant inflow equivalent to climatologic values. Our model results indicate that sea surface salinity could be significantly altered by freshwater flow modification in specific regions and that the affected area and the sign of the anomaly are highly dependent on the used climate model and emission scenario. Sea surface temperature and phytoplankton biomass, on the contrary, show no coherent spatial pattern but a rather widespread scattered response. We found in open-water regions a significant negative relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and phytoplankton biomass anomalies. This indicates that freshwater flow modification could alter the vertical stability of the water column throughout the Mediterranean Sea, by changing the strength of vertical mixing and consequently upper water fertilization. In coastal regions, however, the correlation between sea temperature anomalies and phytoplankton biomass is positive, indicating a larger importance of the physiological control of growth rates by temperature.

Influence of coupling on atmosphere, sea ice and ocean regional models in the Ross Sea sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Mathiot, Pierre; Gallée, Hubert; Barnier, Bernard

2011-04-01

Air-sea ice-ocean interactions in the Ross Sea sector form dense waters that feed the global thermohaline circulation. In this paper, we develop the new limited-area ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model TANGO to simulate the Ross Sea sector. TANGO is built up by coupling the atmospheric limited-area model MAR to a regional configuration of the ocean-sea ice model NEMO. A method is then developed to identify the mechanisms by which local coupling affects the simulations. TANGO is shown to simulate realistic sea ice properties and atmospheric surface temperatures. These skills are mostly related to the skills of the stand alone atmospheric and oceanic models used to build TANGO. Nonetheless, air temperatures over ocean and winter sea ice thickness are found to be slightly improved in coupled simulations as compared to standard stand alone ones. Local atmosphere ocean feedbacks over the open ocean are found to significantly influence ocean temperature and salinity. In a stand alone ocean configuration, the dry and cold air produces an ocean cooling through sensible and latent heat loss. In a coupled configuration, the atmosphere is in turn moistened and warmed by the ocean; sensible and latent heat loss is therefore reduced as compared to the stand alone simulations. The atmosphere is found to be less sensitive to local feedbacks than the ocean. Effects of local feedbacks are increased in the coastal area because of the presence of sea ice. It is suggested that slow heat conduction within sea ice could amplify the feedbacks. These local feedbacks result in less sea ice production in polynyas in coupled mode, with a subsequent reduction in deep water formation.

Simulation of Wind-Driven Circulation in the Salton Sea: Implications for Indigenous Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Chris B.; Orlob, Gerald T.; Huston, David W.

The Salton Sea Authority is seeking methods for reducing water levels and controlling salinity within ranges that will protect beneficial uses of the Sea, its adjacent lands, and its indigenous ecosystems. Proposed solutions include various physical changes in the bathymetry and configuration of the Sea. Because circulation in the Sea is driven primarily by wind stresses imposed on the water surface, and circulation changes are likely to affect the Sea?s quality and ecology, a methodology for quantifying the effects of specific alternatives is required. For this purpose a mathematical model for simulation of the hydrodynamic behavior of the Sea hasmore » been developed, calibrated to data gathered by a field investigation conducted in 1997, and applied to alternative schemes that will isolate sections of the southern basin. The Salton Sea Hydrodynamic/Water Quality Model is constructed using the finite element method to represent the bathymetry of the Sea in a three-dimensional grid. Given certain boundary conditions, for example wind stresses imposed on the surface, the model solves the three-dimensional equations of motion and continuity, the advection-dispersion equation, and an equation of state dependent upon temperature and salinity, to obtain temporal and spatial descriptions of velocities and temperatures over a specified period of time. The model successfully replicated principal features of the Sea's behavior, especially the persistence of a counterclockwise gyre in the southern basin and seasonal stratification. Once calibrated, the model was applied to evaluate the possible effects of changing water surface elevations in the Sea and altering its configuration to isolate sections for evaporative concentration of salts. These effects, evident in changes in velocity, were quantified with regard to their possible impacts on the aquatic habitat and the health of the Salton Sea ecology. A comparative evaluation of alternatives is presented.« less

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Hünicke, Birgit; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Studies based on sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer Monsoon. We examine this relationship directly in an eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by atmospheric reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyse the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analysis reveals high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r = 0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r = -0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the Monsoon is small. We find an atmospheric circulation pattern different from the one that drives the Monsoon as the main modulator of the upwelling variability. In spite of this, the patterns of temperature anomalies that are either linked to Arabian Sea upwelling or to the Monsoon are spatially quite similar, although the physical mechanisms of these links are different. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modelled upwelling in the Arabian Sea.

Evaluation of weather research and forecasting model parameterizations under sea-breeze conditions in a North Sea coastal environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Nadir; Reis, Neyval Costa; Santos, Jane Meri; Albuquerque, Taciana Toledo de Almeida; Loriato, Ayres Geraldo; Delbarre, Hervé; Augustin, Patrick; Sokolov, Anton; Moreira, Davidson Martins

2016-12-01

Three atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) schemes and two land surface models that are used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.4.1, were evaluated with numerical simulations by using data from the north coast of France (Dunkerque). The ABL schemes YSU (Yonsei University), ACM2 (Asymmetric Convective Model version 2), and MYJ (Mellor-Yamada-Janjic) were combined with two land surface models, Noah and RUC (Rapid Update Cycle), in order to determine the performances under sea-breeze conditions. Particular attention is given in the determination of the thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL), which is very important in air pollution scenarios. The other physics parameterizations used in the model were consistent for all simulations. The predictions of the sea-breeze dynamics output from the WRF model were compared with observations taken from sonic detection and ranging, light detection and ranging systems and a meteorological surface station to verify that the model had reasonable accuracy in predicting the behavior of local circulations. The temporal comparisons of the vertical and horizontal wind speeds and wind directions predicted by the WRF model showed that all runs detected the passage of the sea-breeze front. However, except for the combination of MYJ and Noah, all runs had a time delay compared with the frontal passage measured by the instruments. The proposed study shows that the synoptic wind attenuated the intensity and penetration of the sea breeze. This provided changes in the vertical mixing in a short period of time and on soil temperature that could not be detected by the WRF model simulations with the computational grid used. Additionally, among the tested schemes, the combination of the localclosure MYJ scheme with the land surface Noah scheme was able to produce the most accurate ABL height compared with observations, and it was also able to capture the TIBL.

EM Bias-Correction for Ice Thickness and Surface Roughness Retrievals over Rough Deformed Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Gaiser, P. W.; Allard, R.; Posey, P. G.; Hebert, D. A.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

2016-12-01

The very rough ridge sea ice accounts for significant percentage of total ice areas and even larger percentage of total volume. The commonly used Radar altimeter surface detection techniques are empirical in nature and work well only over level/smooth sea ice. Rough sea ice surfaces can modify the return waveforms, resulting in significant Electromagnetic (EM) bias in the estimated surface elevations, and thus large errors in the ice thickness retrievals. To understand and quantify such sea ice surface roughness effects, a combined EM rough surface and volume scattering model was developed to simulate radar returns from the rough sea ice `layer cake' structure. A waveform matching technique was also developed to fit observed waveforms to a physically-based waveform model and subsequently correct the roughness induced EM bias in the estimated freeboard. This new EM Bias Corrected (EMBC) algorithm was able to better retrieve surface elevations and estimate the surface roughness parameter simultaneously. In situ data from multi-instrument airborne and ground campaigns were used to validate the ice thickness and surface roughness retrievals. For the surface roughness retrievals, we applied this EMBC algorithm to co-incident LiDAR/Radar measurements collected during a Cryosat-2 under-flight by the NASA IceBridge missions. Results show that not only does the waveform model fit very well to the measured radar waveform, but also the roughness parameters derived independently from the LiDAR and radar data agree very well for both level and deformed sea ice. For sea ice thickness retrievals, validation based on in-situ data from the coordinated CRREL/NRL field campaign demonstrates that the physically-based EMBC algorithm performs fundamentally better than the empirical algorithm over very rough deformed sea ice, suggesting that sea ice surface roughness effects can be modeled and corrected based solely on the radar return waveforms.

Local sea surface temperatures add to extreme precipitation in northeast Australia during La Niña

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Jason P.; Boyer-Souchet, Irène

2012-05-01

This study examines the role played by high sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, in producing the extreme precipitation which occurred during the strong La Niña in December 2010. These extreme rains produced floods that impacted almost 1,300,000 km2, caused billions of dollars in damage, led to the evacuation of thousands of people and resulted in 35 deaths. Through the use of regional climate model simulations the contribution of the observed high sea surface temperatures to the rainfall is quantified. Results indicate that the large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the La Niña event, while associated with above average rainfall in northeast Australia, were insufficient to produce the extreme rainfall and subsequent flooding observed. The presence of high sea surface temperatures around northern Australia added ˜25% of the rainfall total.

Petroleum dynamics in the sea and influence of subsea dispersant injection during Deepwater Horizon.

PubMed

Gros, Jonas; Socolofsky, Scott A; Dissanayake, Anusha L; Jun, Inok; Zhao, Lin; Boufadel, Michel C; Reddy, Christopher M; Arey, J Samuel

2017-09-19

During the Deepwater Horizon disaster, a substantial fraction of the 600,000-900,000 tons of released petroleum liquid and natural gas became entrapped below the sea surface, but the quantity entrapped and the sequestration mechanisms have remained unclear. We modeled the buoyant jet of petroleum liquid droplets, gas bubbles, and entrained seawater, using 279 simulated chemical components, for a representative day (June 8, 2010) of the period after the sunken platform's riser pipe was pared at the wellhead (June 4-July 15). The model predicts that 27% of the released mass of petroleum fluids dissolved into the sea during ascent from the pared wellhead (1,505 m depth) to the sea surface, thereby matching observed volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions to the atmosphere. Based on combined results from model simulation and water column measurements, 24% of released petroleum fluid mass became channeled into a stable deep-water intrusion at 900- to 1,300-m depth, as aqueously dissolved compounds (∼23%) and suspended petroleum liquid microdroplets (∼0.8%). Dispersant injection at the wellhead decreased the median initial diameters of simulated petroleum liquid droplets and gas bubbles by 3.2-fold and 3.4-fold, respectively, which increased dissolution of ascending petroleum fluids by 25%. Faster dissolution increased the simulated flows of water-soluble compounds into biologically sparse deep water by 55%, while decreasing the flows of several harmful compounds into biologically rich surface water. Dispersant injection also decreased the simulated emissions of VOCs to the atmosphere by 28%, including a 2,000-fold decrease in emissions of benzene, which lowered health risks for response workers.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Petroleum dynamics in the sea and influence of subsea dispersant injection during Deepwater Horizon

PubMed Central

Gros, Jonas; Socolofsky, Scott A.; Dissanayake, Anusha L.; Jun, Inok; Zhao, Lin; Boufadel, Michel C.; Reddy, Christopher M.; Arey, J. Samuel

2017-01-01

During the Deepwater Horizon disaster, a substantial fraction of the 600,000–900,000 tons of released petroleum liquid and natural gas became entrapped below the sea surface, but the quantity entrapped and the sequestration mechanisms have remained unclear. We modeled the buoyant jet of petroleum liquid droplets, gas bubbles, and entrained seawater, using 279 simulated chemical components, for a representative day (June 8, 2010) of the period after the sunken platform’s riser pipe was pared at the wellhead (June 4–July 15). The model predicts that 27% of the released mass of petroleum fluids dissolved into the sea during ascent from the pared wellhead (1,505 m depth) to the sea surface, thereby matching observed volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions to the atmosphere. Based on combined results from model simulation and water column measurements, 24% of released petroleum fluid mass became channeled into a stable deep-water intrusion at 900- to 1,300-m depth, as aqueously dissolved compounds (∼23%) and suspended petroleum liquid microdroplets (∼0.8%). Dispersant injection at the wellhead decreased the median initial diameters of simulated petroleum liquid droplets and gas bubbles by 3.2-fold and 3.4-fold, respectively, which increased dissolution of ascending petroleum fluids by 25%. Faster dissolution increased the simulated flows of water-soluble compounds into biologically sparse deep water by 55%, while decreasing the flows of several harmful compounds into biologically rich surface water. Dispersant injection also decreased the simulated emissions of VOCs to the atmosphere by 28%, including a 2,000-fold decrease in emissions of benzene, which lowered health risks for response workers. PMID:28847967

Performance analysis of air-water quantum key distribution with an irregular sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hua-bin; Zhou, Yuan-yuan; Zhou, Xue-jun; Wang, Lian

2018-05-01

In the air-water quantum key distribution (QKD), the irregular sea surface has some influence on the photon polarization state. The wind is considered as the main factor causing the irregularity, so the model of irregular sea surface based on the wind speed is adopted. The relationships of the quantum bit error rate with the wind speed and the initial incident angle are simulated. Therefore, the maximum secure transmission depth of QKD is confirmed, and the limitation of the wind speed and the initial incident angle is determined. The simulation results show that when the wind speed and the initial incident angle increase, the performance of QKD will fall down. Under the intercept-resend attack condition, the maximum safe transmission depth of QKD is up to 105 m. To realize safe communications in the safe diving depth of submarines (100 m), the initial incident angle is requested to be not exceeding 26°, and with the initial incident angle increased, the limitation of wind speed is decreased.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

The Influence of Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Land-Breeze Circulations on Sea-Breeze Initiated Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, David R.; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

2000-01-01

Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a coupled atmosphere/land-surface model to identify the roles of initial soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Data collected on 27 July 1991 during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CAPE) in central Florida are used. The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model is coupled with the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, thus providing a tool to simulate more realistically land-surface/atmosphere interaction and convective initiation. Eight simulations are conducted with either straight or curved coast-lines, initially homogeneous soil moisture or initially variable soil moisture, and initially homogeneous horizontal winds or initially variable horizontal winds (land breezes). All model simulations capture the diurnal evolution and general distribution of sea-breeze initiated precipitation over central Florida. The distribution of initial soil moisture influences the timing, intensity and location of subsequent precipitation. Soil moisture acts as a moisture source for the atmosphere, increases the connectively available potential energy, and thus preferentially focuses heavy precipitation over existing wet soil. Strong soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations are not evident in these simulations. Coastline curvature has a major impact on the timing and location of precipitation. Earlier low-level convergence occurs inland of convex coastlines, and subsequent precipitation occurs earlier in simulations with curved coastlines. The presence of initial land breezes alone has little impact on subsequent precipitation. however, simulations with both coastline curvature and initial land breezes produce significantly larger peak rain rates due to nonlinear interactions.

Interpretation of CAROLS L-band measurements in the Gulf of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutin, J.; Leduc-Leballeur, M.; Pardé, M.; Zribi, M.; Fanise, P.; Reverdin, G.; Tenerelli, J.; Reul, N.

2009-04-01

The L-band Cooperative Airborne Radiometer for Ocean and Land Studies (CAROLS) radiometer (see Zribi et al., Pardé et al., IGARSS 2008) flew four times over the Gulf of Biscay between September 24 to September 28, 2007 around 20UTC. These flights were the first ones over the ocean of this new instrument. Brightness temperatures (Tb) of the surface were measured by one antenna looking at 33° on the right hand side of the aircraft and optionally by a nadir antenna. Measurements are compared with simulations conducted with the Terrestrial Radiometry Analysis Package (TRAP) (Tenerelli et al., 2008) software run for CAROLS geometry and different observed geophysical conditions. Concomitant ship campaign and drifter deployments provide in situ ground truths for sea surface salinity (between 34.6 and 35.8pss) and temperature (between 15°C and 17°C). Wind speed (between 2 and 10m/s) and direction are estimated from the QSCAT scatterometer. TRAP uses the physical modelling of atmospheric radiative transfer, sea surface emissivity and galactic glint foreseen for the processing of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite data. The circle flights and wing-wags movements of the CAROLS aircraft (The French research ATR42 aircraft) allow to explore a wide range of incidence angles (from 0° to about 60°) and of galactic signals reflected by the sea surface. On a whole, simulated and observed variations of Tb with incidence angle are very consistent, demonstrating a good sensitivity of CAROLS instrument. During the wing-wags, differences between observations and simulations occur in some azimutal directions possibly linked to imperfect knowledge of the galactic signal in some parts of the sky close to the Milky Way. During circle flights, observed azimutal variations are consistent with the galactic noise signal scattered by the sea surface as simulated with the model of (Tenerelli et al., 2008) and the signal due to rough sea assymmetry as simulated by a two-scale model using the Durden and Vesecky x2 wave spectrum (Dinnat et al, 2003). On September 28, a more than 1K increase of Tb over 2° longitude is observed, mainly linked to an increase of wind speed from 2 to 8m/s.

Regional approach to modeling the transport of floating plastic debris in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Liubartseva, S; Coppini, G; Lecci, R; Creti, S

2016-02-15

Sea surface concentrations of plastics and their fluxes onto coastlines are simulated over 2009-2015. Calculations incorporate combinations of terrestrial and maritime litter inputs, the Lagrangian model MEDSLIK-II forced by AFS ocean current simulations, and ECMWF wind analyses. With a relatively short particle half-life of 43.7 days, the Adriatic Sea is defined as a highly dissipative basin where the shoreline is, by construction, the main sink of floating debris. Our model results show that the coastline of the Po Delta receives a plastic flux of approximately 70 kg(km day)(-1). The most polluted sea surface area (>10 g km(-2) floating debris) is represented by an elongated band shifted to the Italian coastline and narrowed from northwest to southeast. Evident seasonality is found in the calculated plastic concentration fields and the coastline fluxes. Complex source-receptor relationships among the basin's subregions are quantified in impact matrices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, M.; Brandefelt, J.; Nilsson, J.

2013-04-01

In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early- to mid-Holocene.

Future projections of total snowfall and heavy snowfall in Japan simulated by large ensemble regional climate simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Murata, A.; Nosaka, M.; Ito, R.; Dairaku, K.; Sasai, T.; Yamazaki, T.; Sugimoto, S.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Kawazoe, S.; Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Takayabu, I.

2017-12-01

We performed large ensemble climate experiments to investigate future changes in extreme weather events using Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) with about 60 km grid spacing and Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with 20 km grid spacing (NHRCM20). The global climate simulations are prescribed by the past and future sea surface temperature (SST). Two future climate simulations are conducted so that the global-mean surface air temperature rise 2 K and 4 K from the pre-industrial period. The non-warming simulations are also conducted by MRI-AGCM and NHRCM20. We focus on the future changes in snowfall in Japan. In winter, the Sea of Japan coast experiences heavy snowfall due to East Asian winter monsoon. The cold and dry air from the continent obtains abundant moisture from the warm Sea of Japan, causing enormous amount of snowfall especially in the mountainous area. The NHRCM20 showed winter total snowfall decreases in the most parts of Japan. In contrast, extremely heavy daily snowfall could increase at mountainous areas in the Central Japan and Northern parts of Japan when strong cold air outbreak occurs and the convergence zone appears over the Sea of Japan. The warmer Sea of Japan in the future climate could supply more moisture than that in the present climate, indicating that the cumulus convections could be enhanced around the convergence zone in the Sea of Japan. However, the horizontal resolution of 20 km is not enough to resolve Japan`s complex topography. Therefore, dynamical downscaling with 5 km grid spacing (NHRCM05) is also conducted using NHRCM20. The NHRCM05 does a better job simulating the regional boundary of snowfall and shows more detailed changes in future snowfall characteristics. The future changes in total and extremely heavy snowfall depend on the regions, elevations, and synoptic conditions around Japan.

Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio

2000-05-01

This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

The Sea Breeze in South-Iceland: Observations with an unmanned aircraft and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opsanger Jonassen, Marius; Ólafsson, Haraldur; Rasol, Dubravka; Reuder, Joachim

2010-05-01

Sea breeze events, 19-20 July 2009, observed during the international field campaign MOSO, at the southcoast of Iceland, have been investigated using high resolution numerical simulations. Thanks to the use of a small unmanned aircraft system (UAS), SUMO, the wind and temperature aloft could be observed at a high resolution in both space and time. Simultaneously with the UAS operations, conventional platforms were used to obtain surface measurements. The observations show a distinct sea breeze circulation with an onset at around noon and a final decay around 19:00 UTC. At the maximum, the sea breeze layer reached a height of appr. 400 m, marked by a capping wind minimum. When compared to the flow aloft, the sea breeze layer was found to exhibit relatively low temperatures and an expected turn from an off-shore to an on-shore flow. Overall, the agreement between the observations and simulations are relatively good. The simulations suggest a horizontal extent of the circulation some 20-30 km off-shore, but only around 5 km on-shore.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

The role of internal variability in prolonging the California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.

2015-12-01

The current drought in California has been one of the driest on record. Using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), recent studies have demonstrated that the low precipitation anomalies observed during the first three winters of the current drought are mostly attributable to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice forcing. Here we show through AGCM simulations that the fourth and latest winter of the current drought is not attributable to SST and sea ice forcing, but instead a consequence of higher internal variability. Using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) we demonstrate how the surface forcing reproduces dry conditions over California for the first three winters of the current drought, similar to what other models produced. However, when forced with the SST and sea ice conditions for the winter of 2014-2015, GSM robustly simulates high precipitation conditions over California. This significantly differs with observed precipitation anomalies, which suggests a model deficiency or large influence of internal variability within the climate system during the winter of 2014-2015. Ensemble simulations with 234 realizations reveal that the surface forcing created a broader range of precipitation possibilities over California. Thus, the surface forcing caused a greater degree of internal variations, which was driven by a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient and amplified planetary waves over the Pacific. Similar amplified waves are also seen in 21st century climate projections of upper-level geopotential heights, suggesting that 21st century precipitation over California will become more variable and increasingly difficult to predict on seasonal timescales. When an El Nino pattern is applied to the surface forcing the precipitation further increases and the variance amongst model realizations is reduced, which indicates a strong likelihood of an anomalously wet 2015-2016 winter season.

Modeling of Antarctic sea ice in a general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Xingren; Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

1997-04-01

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is developed and coupled with the Melbourne University general circulation model to simulate the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice distributions The model is efficient, rapid to compute, and useful for a range of climate studies. The thermodynamic part of the sea ice model is similar to that developed by Parkinson and Washington, the dynamics contain a simplified ice rheology that resists compression. The thermodynamics is based on energy conservation at the top surface of the ice/snow, the ice/water interface, and the open water area to determine the ice formation, accretion, and ablation. Amore » lead parameterization is introduced with an effective partitioning scheme for freezing between and under the ice floes. The dynamic calculation determines the motion of ice, which is forced with the atmospheric wind, taking account of ice resistance and rafting. The simulated sea ice distribution compares reasonably well with observations. The seasonal cycle of ice extent is well simulated in phase as well as in magnitude. Simulated sea ice thickness and concentration are also in good agreement with observations over most regions and serve to indicate the importance of advection and ocean drift in the determination of the sea ice distribution. 64 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Assessment and intercomparison of numerical simulations in the Western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin

2014-05-01

The Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB, www.socib.es) is developing high resolution numerical simulations (hindcasts and forecasts) in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) with a high spatial resolution of 1/50º (1.5-2km). Thus, theses simulations are able to reproduce mesoscale and in some cases sub-mesoscale features that are key in the Mediterranean Sea since they interact and modify the basin and sub-basin circulation. These simulations are initialized from and nested in either the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS, 1/16º) or Mercator-Océan simulations (MERCATOR, 1/12º). A repeated glider section in the Ibiza Channel, operated by SOCIB, has revealed significant differences between two WMOP simulations using either MFS or MERCATOR (hereafter WMOP-MFS and WMOP-MERC). In this study, MFS, MERCATOR, WMOP-MFS and WMOP-MERC are compared and evaluated using available multi-platform observations such as satellite products (Sea Level Anomaly, Sea Surface Temperature) and in situ measurements (temperature and salinity profiles from Argo floats, CTD, XBT, fixed moorings and gliders; velocity fields from HF radar and currentmeters). A quantitative comparison is necessary to evaluate the capacity of the simulations to reproduce observed ocean features, and to quantify the possible simulations biases. This will in turn allow to improve the simulations, so as to produce better ocean forecast systems, to study and better understand ocean processes and to address climate studies. Therefore, various statistical diagnostics have been developed to assess and intercompare the simulations at various spatial and temporal scales, in different sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Western and Eastern Algerian sub-basins, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion), in different dynamical zones (coastal areas, shelves and "open" sea), along key sections (Ibiza and Mallorca Channels, Corsica Channel, ...) and during specific events.

Impact of Surface Roughness on AMSR-E Sea Ice Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroeve, Julienne C.; Markus, Thorsten; Maslanik, James A.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Gasiewski, Albin J.; Heinrichs, John F.; Holmgren, Jon; Perovich, Donald K.; Sturm, Matthew

2006-01-01

This paper examines the sensitivity of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) brightness temperatures (Tbs) to surface roughness by a using radiative transfer model to simulate AMSR-E Tbs as a function of incidence angle at which the surface is viewed. The simulated Tbs are then used to examine the influence that surface roughness has on two operational sea ice algorithms, namely: 1) the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Team (NT) algorithm and 2) the enhanced NT algorithm, as well as the impact of roughness on the AMSR-E snow depth algorithm. Surface snow and ice data collected during the AMSR-Ice03 field campaign held in March 2003 near Barrow, AK, were used to force the radiative transfer model, and resultant modeled Tbs are compared with airborne passive microwave observations from the Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer. Results indicate that passive microwave Tbs are very sensitive even to small variations in incidence angle, which can cause either an over or underestimation of the true amount of sea ice in the pixel area viewed. For example, this paper showed that if the sea ice areas modeled in this paper mere assumed to be completely smooth, sea ice concentrations were underestimated by nearly 14% using the NT sea ice algorithm and by 7% using the enhanced NT algorithm. A comparison of polarization ratios (PRs) at 10.7,18.7, and 37 GHz indicates that each channel responds to different degrees of surface roughness and suggests that the PR at 10.7 GHz can be useful for identifying locations of heavily ridged or rubbled ice. Using the PR at 10.7 GHz to derive an "effective" viewing angle, which is used as a proxy for surface roughness, resulted in more accurate retrievals of sea ice concentration for both algorithms. The AMSR-E snow depth algorithm was found to be extremely sensitive to instrument calibration and sensor viewing angle, and it is concluded that more work is needed to investigate the sensitivity of the gradient ratio at 37 and 18.7 GHz to these factors to improve snow depth retrievals from spaceborne passive microwave sensors.

A case study of sea breeze circulation at Thumba Coast through observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunhikrishnan, P. K.; Ramachandran, Radhika; Alappattu, Denny P.; Kiran Kumar, N. V. P.; Balasubrahamanyam, D.

2006-12-01

A case study of sea breeze circulation at a coastal region Thumba (8.5°N, 76.9°E) was carried out using Doppler Sodar, surface wind, temperature, humidity measurements and radiosonde ascents. The analysis of surface meteorological data showed that the onset of sea breeze on 12th April 2006 was at 0945 hrs. GPS sonde observation over sea at 1425 hrs and Radiosonde observation over land at 1730 showed a well developed sea breeze circulation over Thumba coast by afternoon hours. The vertical extent of sea breeze circulation was ~1000m over sea as well as on land. The Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) depth associated with sea breeze circulation was about 400m at 8 km away from coast. The marine mixed layer height was ~500m about 12 km away from the coast. Numerical simulation of sea breeze was made using HRM (High Resolution Model) and compared the results with the observations.

Control of wave-driven turbulence and surface heating on the mixing of microplastic marine debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukulka, T.; Lavender Law, K. L.; Proskurowski, G. K.

2016-02-01

Buoyant microplastic marine debris (MPMD) is a pollutant in the ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) that is submerged by turbulent transport processes. Langmuir circulation (LC) is a turbulent process driven by wind and surface waves that enhances mixing in the OSBL. Sea surface cooling also contributes to OSBL turbulence by driving convection. On the other hand, sea surface heating stratifies and stabilizes the water column to reduce turbulent motion. We analyze observed MPMD surface concentrations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to reveal a significant increase in MPMD concentrations during surface heating and a decrease during surface cooling. Turbulence resolving large eddy simulations of the OSBL for an idealized diurnal heating cycle suggest that turbulent downward fluxes of buoyant tracers are enhanced at night, facilitating deep submergence of plastics, and suppressed in heating conditions, resulting in surface trapped MPMD. Simulations agree with observations if enhanced mixing due to LC is included. Our results demonstrate the controlling influence of surface heat fluxes and LC on turbulent transport in the OSBL and on vertical distributions of buoyant marine particles.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-01-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

Response in the water quality of the Salton Sea, California, to changes in phosphorus loading: An empirical modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Schladow, S.G.

2008-01-01

Salton Sea, California, like many other lakes, has become eutrophic because of excessive nutrient loading, primarily phosphorus (P). A Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is being prepared for P to reduce the input of P to the Sea. In order to better understand how P-load reductions should affect the average annual water quality of this terminal saline lake, three different eutrophication programs (BATHTUB, WiLMS, and the Seepage Lake Model) were applied. After verifying that specific empirical models within these programs were applicable to this saline lake, each model was calibrated using water-quality and nutrient-loading data for 1999 and then used to simulate the effects of specific P-load reductions. Model simulations indicate that a 50% decrease in external P loading would decrease near-surface total phosphorus concentrations (TP) by 25-50%. Application of other empirical models demonstrated that this decrease in loading should decrease near-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (Chl a) by 17-63% and increase Secchi depths (SD) by 38-97%. The wide range in estimated responses in Chl a and SD were primarily caused by uncertainty in how non-algal turbidity would respond to P-load reductions. If only the models most applicable to the Salton Sea are considered, a 70-90% P-load reduction is required for the Sea to be classified as moderately eutrophic (trophic state index of 55). These models simulate steady-state conditions in the Sea; therefore, it is difficult to ascertain how long it would take for the simulated changes to occur after load reductions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Analysis of satellite altimeter signal characteristics and investigation of sea-truth data requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

Results are presented of analysis of satellite signal characteristics as influenced by ocean surface roughness and an investigation of sea truth data requirements. The first subject treated is that of postflight waveform reconstruction for the Skylab S-193 radar altimeter. Sea state estimation accuracies are derived based on analytical and hybrid computer simulation techniques. An analysis of near-normal incidence, microwave backscattering from the ocean's surface is accomplished in order to obtain the minimum sea truth data necessary for good agreement between theoretical and experimental scattering results. Sea state bias is examined from the point of view of designing an experiment which will lead to a resolution of the problem. A discussion is given of some deficiencies which were found in the theory underlying the Stilwell technique for spectral measurements.

The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, B.

2015-12-01

Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

Large-eddy simulation of subtropical cloud-topped boundary layers: 1. A forcing framework with closed surface energy balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zhihong; Schneider, Tapio; Teixeira, João.; Pressel, Kyle G.

2016-12-01

Large-eddy simulation (LES) of clouds has the potential to resolve a central question in climate dynamics, namely, how subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds respond to global warming. However, large-scale processes need to be prescribed or represented parameterically in the limited-area LES domains. It is important that the representation of large-scale processes satisfies constraints such as a closed energy balance in a manner that is realizable under climate change. For example, LES with fixed sea surface temperatures usually do not close the surface energy balance, potentially leading to spurious surface fluxes and cloud responses to climate change. Here a framework of forcing LES of subtropical MBL clouds is presented that enforces a closed surface energy balance by coupling atmospheric LES to an ocean mixed layer with a sea surface temperature (SST) that depends on radiative fluxes and sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface. A variety of subtropical MBL cloud regimes (stratocumulus, cumulus, and stratocumulus over cumulus) are simulated successfully within this framework. However, unlike in conventional frameworks with fixed SST, feedbacks between cloud cover and SST arise, which can lead to sudden transitions between cloud regimes (e.g., stratocumulus to cumulus) as forcing parameters are varied. The simulations validate this framework for studies of MBL clouds and establish its usefulness for studies of how the clouds respond to climate change.

A Coastal Bay Summer Breeze Study, Part 2: High-resolution Numerical Simulation of Sea-breeze Local Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmet, Isabelle; Mestayer, Patrice G.; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Herlédant, Olivier

2018-04-01

We complete the analysis of the data obtained during the experimental campaign around the semi circular bay of Quiberon, France, during two weeks in June 2006 (see Part 1). A reanalysis of numerical simulations performed with the Advanced Regional Prediction System model is presented. Three nested computational domains with increasing horizontal resolution down to 100 m, and a vertical resolution of 10 m at the lowest level, are used to reproduce the local-scale variations of the breeze close to the water surface of the bay. The Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to assimilate the meteorological data. Comparisons of the simulations with the experimental data obtained at three sites reveal a good agreement of the flow over the bay and around the Quiberon peninsula during the daytime periods of sea-breeze development and weakening. In conditions of offshore synoptic flow, the simulations demonstrate that the semi-circular shape of the bay induces a corresponding circular shape in the offshore zones of stagnant flow preceding the sea-breeze onset, which move further offshore thereafter. The higher-resolution simulations are successful in reproducing the small-scale impacts of the peninsula and local coasts (breeze deviations, wakes, flow divergences), and in demonstrating the complexity of the breeze fields close to the surface over the bay. Our reanalysis also provides guidance for numerical simulation strategies for analyzing the structure and evolution of the near-surface breeze over a semi-circular bay, and for forecasting important flow details for use in upcoming sailing competitions.

Factors affecting the simulated trajectory and intensification of Tropical Cyclone Yasi (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Lynch, Amanda H.; Mooney, Priscilla A.

2017-09-01

This study investigates the sensitivity of the simulated trajectory, intensification, and forward speed of Tropical Cyclone Yasi to initial conditions, physical parameterizations, and sea surface temperatures. Yasi was a category 5 storm that made landfall in Queensland, Australia in February 2011. A series of simulations were performed using WRF-ARW v3.4.1 driven by ERA-Interim data at the lateral boundaries. To assess these simulations, a new simple skill score is devised to summarize the deviation from observed conditions at landfall. The results demonstrate the sensitivity to initial condition resolution and the need for a new initialization dataset. Ensemble testing of physics parameterizations revealed strong sensitivity to cumulus schemes, with a trade-off between trajectory and intensity accuracy. The Tiedtke scheme produces an accurate trajectory evolution and landfall location. The Kain Fritch scheme is associated with larger errors in trajectory due to a less active shallow convection over the ocean, leading to warmer temperatures at the 700 mb level and a stronger, more poleward steering flow. However, the Kain Fritsch scheme produces more accurate intensities and translation speeds. Tiedtke-derived intensities were weaker due to suppression of deep convection by active shallow convection. Accurate representation of the sea surface temperature through correcting a newly discovered SST lag in reanalysis data or increasing resolution of SST data can improve the simulation. Higher resolution increases relative vorticity and intensity. However, the sea surface boundary had a more pronounced effect on the simulation with the Tiedtke scheme due to its moisture convergence trigger and active shallow convection over the tropical ocean.

The Harp probe - An in situ Bragg scattering sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mollo-Christensen, E.; Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.; Bliven, L. F.

1984-01-01

A wave sensor, consisting of parallel, evenly spaced capacitance wires, whose output is the sum of the water surface deflections at the wires, has been built and tested in a wave tank. The probe output simulates Bragg scattering of electromagnetic waves from a water surface with waves; it can be used to simulate electromagnetic probing of the sea surface by radar. The study establishes that the wave probe, called the 'Harp' for short, will simulate Bragg scattering and that it can also be used to study nonlinear wave processes.

Meteorological and Land Surface Properties Impacting Sea Breeze Extent and Aerosol Distribution in a Dry Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igel, Adele L.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Johnson, Jill S.

2018-01-01

The properties of sea breeze circulations are influenced by a variety of meteorological and geophysical factors that interact with one another. These circulations can redistribute aerosol particles and pollution and therefore can play an important role in local air quality, as well as impact remote sensing. In this study, we select 11 factors that have the potential to impact either the sea breeze circulation properties and/or the spatial distribution of aerosols. Simulations are run to identify which of the 11 factors have the largest influence on the sea breeze properties and aerosol concentrations and to subsequently understand the mean response of these variables to the selected factors. All simulations are designed to be representative of conditions in coastal sub tropical environments and are thus relatively dry, as such they do not support deep convection associated with the sea breeze front. For this dry sea breeze regime, we find that the background wind speed was the most influential factor for the sea breeze propagation, with the soil saturation fraction also being important. For the spatial aerosol distribution, the most important factors were the soil moisture, sea-air temperature difference, and the initial boundary layer height. The importance of these factors seems to be strongly tied to the development of the surface-based mixed layer both ahead of and behind the sea breeze front. This study highlights potential avenues for further research regarding sea breeze dynamics and the impact of sea breeze circulations on pollution dispersion and remote sensing algorithms.

Oceanographic, Air-sea Interaction, and Environmental Aspects of Artificial Upwelling Produced by Wave-Inertia Pumps for Potential Hurricane Intensity Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soloviev, A.; Dean, C.

2017-12-01

The artificial upwelling system consisting of the wave-inertia pumps driven by surface waves can produce flow of cold deep water to the surface. One of the recently proposed potential applications of the artificial upwelling system is the hurricane intensity mitigation. Even relatively small reduction of intensity may provide significant benefits. The ocean heat content (OHC) is the "fuel" for hurricanes. The OHC can be reduced by mixing of the surface layer with the cold water produced by wave-inertia pumps. Implementation of this system for hurricane mitigation has several oceanographic and air-sea interaction aspects. The cold water brought to the surface from a deeper layer has higher density than the surface water and, therefore, tends to sink back down. The mixing of the cold water produced by artificial upwelling depends on environmental conditions such as stratification, regional ocean circulation, and vertical shear. Another aspect is that as the sea surface temperature drops below the air temperature, the stable stratification develops in the atmospheric boundary layer. The stable atmospheric stratification suppresses sensible and latent heat air-sea fluxes and reduces the net longwave irradiance from the sea surface. As a result, the artificial upwelling may start increasing the OHC (though still reducing the sea surface temperature). In this work, the fate of the cold water in the stratified environment with vertical shear has been studied using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. A 3D large eddy simulation model is initialized with observational temperature, salinity, and current velocity data from a sample location in the Straits of Florida. A periodic boundary condition is set along the direction of the current, which allows us to simulate infinite fetch. The model results indicate that the cold water brought to the sea surface by a wave-inertia pump forms a convective jet. This jet plunges into the upper ocean mixed layer and penetrates the thermocline. On the way down, the jet partially mixes with the surrounding water reducing the temperature of the upper ocean. The OHC thus can either reduce or increase, depending on the wave-inertia pump parameters. Based on the model results, we discuss feasibility of the implementation of the artificial upwelling system for hurricane intensity mitigation.

The Extreme Flooding of July 2012 in Krymsk, Russia, from a Climate Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun

2014-05-01

One of the most devastating meteorological extremes during recent years has been the extreme precipitation event along Russia's Black Sea coast, near the town of Krymsk, during the 6th and 7th of July 2012. The town was inundated by the ensuing downslope deluge; torrents of water caused widespread destruction and lead to over 170 deaths. The extreme precipitation was caused by a low pressure system that advected warm and moist air north-eastwards from the Black Sea. Whether global warming contributed to the unprecedented magnitude of this event remains unclear. Sea surface temperatures in the Black Sea have exhibited a strong and continuous upward trend over the last decades, with warming exceeding 2K in some regions. As the Black Sea served as the principal moisture source for the observed extreme precipitation, we investigate the impact of the increased SSTs on the properties of the cyclone and the resultant magnitude of the precipitation. This is done by employing ensemble sensitivity simulations with the WRF regional model, in both nudged and unnudged mode. The model is run for an eastern Black Sea domain using multiply nested sub-domains increasing up to very high, convection resolving, resolution to simulate the observed event. The model's ability to reproduce the extreme event is first verified. The simulations are then repeated with reduced SST, characteristic of the last decades of the 20th century. Our results suggest that such an extreme event would not have been possible without the current warmed SSTs. We find that the increased SSTs played an important role in amplifying the precipitation experienced near Krymsk, facilitating enhanced moisture fluxes and increasing instability within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). While the location of the heaviest precipitation remains broadly similar, the magnitude of the simulated precipitation caused by the same cyclone passing over the cooler SSTs was reduced, on average, by a factor of three or more in most places. Likewise, surface evaporation from the Black Sea is decreased by a factor of three to four over much of the eastern Black Sea, giving reduced moisture advection towards the coastal hills surrounding Krymsk. An analogous decrease in surface latent heat fluxes adds stability to the PBL through reduced moisture and heat, the latter indicated by a more than twofold decrease in PBL heights.

Determining wave direction using curvature parameters.

PubMed

de Queiroz, Eduardo Vitarelli; de Carvalho, João Luiz Baptista

2016-01-01

The curvature of the sea wave was tested as a parameter for estimating wave direction in the search for better results in estimates of wave direction in shallow waters, where waves of different sizes, frequencies and directions intersect and it is difficult to characterize. We used numerical simulations of the sea surface to determine wave direction calculated from the curvature of the waves. Using 1000 numerical simulations, the statistical variability of the wave direction was determined. The results showed good performance by the curvature parameter for estimating wave direction. Accuracy in the estimates was improved by including wave slope parameters in addition to curvature. The results indicate that the curvature is a promising technique to estimate wave directions.•In this study, the accuracy and precision of curvature parameters to measure wave direction are analyzed using a model simulation that generates 1000 wave records with directional resolution.•The model allows the simultaneous simulation of time-series wave properties such as sea surface elevation, slope and curvature and they were used to analyze the variability of estimated directions.•The simultaneous acquisition of slope and curvature parameters can contribute to estimates wave direction, thus increasing accuracy and precision of results.

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Strom, Eric W.

2002-01-01

In November 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Houston Utilities Planning Section and the City of Houston Department of Public Works & Engineering, began an investigation of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the greater Houston area in Texas to better understand the hydrology, flow, and associated land-surface subsidence. The principal part of the investigation was a numerical finite-difference model (MODFLOW) developed to simulate ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in an 18,100-square-mile area encompassing greater Houston.The focus of the study was Harris and Galveston Counties, but other counties were included to achieve the appropriate boundary conditions. The model was vertically discretized into three 103-row by 109-column layers resulting in a total of 33,681 grid cells. Layer 1 represents the water table using a specified head, layer 2 represents the Chicot aquifer, and layer 3 represents the Evangeline aquifer.Simulations were made under transient conditions for 31 ground-water-withdrawal (stress) periods spanning 1891–1996. The years 1977 and 1996 were chosen as potentiometric-surface calibration periods for the model. Simulated and measured potentiometric surfaces of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers for 1977 match closely. Waterlevel measurements indicate that by 1977, large ground-water withdrawals in east-central and southeastern areas of Harris County had caused the potentiometric surfaces to decline as much as 250 feet below sea level in the Chicot aquifer and as much as 350 feet below sea level in the Evangeline aquifer. Simulated and measured potentiometric surfaces of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers for 1996 also match closely. The large potentiometric-surface decline in 1977 in the southeastern Houston area showed significant recovery by 1996. The 1996 centers of potentiometric-surface decline are located much farther northwest. Potentiometric-surface declines of more than 200 feet below sea level in the Chicot aquifer and more than 350 feet below sea level in the Evangeline aquifer were measured in observation wells and simulated in the flow model.Simulation of land-surface subsidence and water released from storage in the clay layers was accomplished using the Interbed-Storage Package of the MODFLOW model. Land-surface subsidence was calibrated by comparing simulated long-term (1891–1995) and short-term (1978–95) land-surface subsidence with published maps of land-surface subsidence for about the same period until acceptable matches were achieved.Simulated 1996 Chicot aquifer flow rates indicate that a net flow of 562.5 cubic feet per second enters the Chicot aquifer in the outcrop area, and a net flow of 459.5 cubic feet per second passes through the Chicot aquifer into the Evangeline aquifer. The remaining 103.0 cubic feet per second of flow is withdrawn as pumpage, with a shortfall of about 84.9 cubic feet per second supplied to the wells from storage in sands and clays. Water simulated from storage in clays in the Chicot aquifer is about 19 percent of the total water withdrawn from the aquifer.Simulated 1996 Evangeline aquifer flow rates indicate that a net flow of 14.8 cubic feet per second enters the Evangeline aquifer in the outcrop area, and a net flow of 459.5 cubic feet per second passes through the Chicot aquifer into the Evangeline aquifer for a total inflow of 474.3 cubic feet per second. A greater amount, 528.6 cubic feet per second, is withdrawn by wells; the shortfall of about 54.8 cubic feet per second is supplied from storage in sands and clays. Water simulated from storage in clays in the Evangeline aquifer is about 10 percent of the total water withdrawn from the aquifer.

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

2015-04-01

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates melting of sea ice. Hence, the change in seasonality and the associated change in feedback strength is an integral part of the positive surface albedo feedback leading to Arctic amplification and diminishing sea ice cover in the next century when global climate warms.

Effects of a transient sea surface temperature anomaly on the energetics of the Mintz-Arakawa model atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, S. H.

1974-01-01

The possible response of the atmosphere, as simulated by the two level Mintz-Arakawa global general circulation model, to a transient North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is investigated in terms of the energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. Results indicate that the transient SST variations of reasonable magnitude in the North Pacific Ocean can induce a disturbing effect on the global energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. The ability of the two level Mintz-Arakawa model to simulate the atmospheric energetics is also examined. Except in the tropics, the model exhibits a reasonable and realistic energy budget.

Quantifying the ice-albedo feedback through decoupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Rasch, P. J.

2017-12-01

The ice-albedo feedback involves numerous individual components, whereby warming induces sea ice melt, inducing reduced surface albedo, inducing increased surface shortwave absorption, causing further warming. Here we attempt to quantify the sea ice albedo feedback using an analogue of the "partial radiative perturbation" method, but where the governing mechanisms are directly decoupled in a climate model. As an example, we can isolate the insulating effects of sea ice on surface energy and moisture fluxes by allowing sea ice thickness to change but fixing Arctic surface albedo, or vice versa. Here we present results from such idealized simulations using the Community Earth System Model in which individual components are successively fixed, effectively decoupling the ice-albedo feedback loop. We isolate the different components of this feedback, including temperature change, sea ice extent/thickness, and air-sea exchange of heat and moisture. We explore the interactions between these different components, as well as the strengths of the total feedback in the decoupled feedback loop, to quantify contributions from individual pieces. We also quantify the non-additivity of the effects of the components as a means of investigating the dominant sources of nonlinearity in the ice-albedo feedback.

Low-mode internal tides and balanced dynamics disentanglement in altimetric observations: Synergy with surface density observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, Aurélien L.; Klein, Patrice; Dunphy, Michael; Le Gentil, Sylvie

2017-03-01

The performance of a tentative method that disentangles the contributions of a low-mode internal tide on sea level from that of the balanced mesoscale eddies is examined using an idealized high resolution numerical simulation. This disentanglement is essential for proper estimation from sea level of the ocean circulation related to balanced motions. The method relies on an independent observation of the sea surface water density whose variations are 1/dominated by the balanced dynamics and 2/correlate with variations of potential vorticity at depth for the chosen regime of surface-intensified turbulence. The surface density therefore leads via potential vorticity inversion to an estimate of the balanced contribution to sea level fluctuations. The difference between instantaneous sea level (presumably observed with altimetry) and the balanced estimate compares moderately well with the contribution from the low-mode tide. Application to realistic configurations remains to be tested. These results aim at motivating further developments of reconstruction methods of the ocean dynamics based on potential vorticity dynamics arguments. In that context, they are particularly relevant for the upcoming wide-swath high resolution altimetric missions (SWOT).

Sea-town interactions over Marseille: 3D urban boundary layer and thermodynamic fields near the surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemonsu, A.; Pigeon, G.; Masson, V.; Moppert, C.

2006-02-01

3D numerical simulations with the Meso-NH atmospheric model including the Town Energy Balance urban parameterization, are conducted over the south-east of France and the one million inhabitants city of Marseille in the frameworks of the ESCOMPTE-UBL program. The geographic situation of the area is relatively complex, because of the proximity of the Mediterranean Sea and the presence of numerous massifs, inducing complex meteorological flows. The present work is focused on six days of the campaign, characterized by the development of strong summer sea-breeze circulations. A complete evaluation of the model is initially realized at both regional- and city-scales, by using the large available database. The regional evaluation shows a good behavior of the model, during the six days of simulation, either for the parameters near the surface or for the vertical profiles describing the structure of the atmosphere. The urban-scale evaluation indicates that the fine structure of the horizontal fields of air temperature above the city is correctly simulated by the model. A specific attention is then pointed to the 250-m horizontal resolution outputs, focused on the Marseille area, for two days of the campaign. From the study of the vertical structure of the Urban Boundary Layer and the thermodynamic fields near the surface, one underscores the important differences due to the regional and local flows, and the complex interactions that occur between the urban effects and the effects of sea breezes.

Calving seismicity from iceberg-sea surface interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholomaus, T.C.; Larsen, C.F.; O'Neel, S.; West, M.E.

2012-01-01

Iceberg calving is known to release substantial seismic energy, but little is known about the specific mechanisms that produce calving icequakes. At Yahtse Glacier, a tidewater glacier on the Gulf of Alaska, we draw upon a local network of seismometers and focus on 80 hours of concurrent, direct observation of the terminus to show that calving is the dominant source of seismicity. To elucidate seismogenic mechanisms, we synchronized video and seismograms to reveal that the majority of seismic energy is produced during iceberg interactions with the sea surface. Icequake peak amplitudes coincide with the emergence of high velocity jets of water and ice from the fjord after the complete submergence of falling icebergs below sea level. These icequakes have dominant frequencies between 1 and 3 Hz. Detachment of an iceberg from the terminus produces comparatively weak seismic waves at frequencies between 5 and 20 Hz. Our observations allow us to suggest that the most powerful sources of calving icequakes at Yahtse Glacier include iceberg-sea surface impact, deceleration under the influence of drag and buoyancy, and cavitation. Numerical simulations of seismogenesis during iceberg-sea surface interactions support our observational evidence. Our new understanding of iceberg-sea surface interactions allows us to reattribute the sources of calving seismicity identified in earlier studies and offer guidance for the future use of seismology in monitoring iceberg calving.

Heat and turbulent kinetic energy budgets for surface layer cooling induced by the passage of Hurricane Frances (2004)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Peisheng; Sanford, Thomas B.; Imberger, JöRg

2009-12-01

Heat and turbulent kinetic energy budgets of the ocean surface layer during the passage of Hurricane Frances were examined using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. In situ data obtained with the Electromagnetic-Autonomous Profiling Explorer (EM-APEX) floats were used to set up the initial conditions of the model simulation and to compare to the simulation results. The spatial heat budgets reveal that during the hurricane passage, not only the entrainment in the bottom of surface mixed layer but also the horizontal water advection were important factors determining the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. At the free surface, the hurricane-brought precipitation contributed a negligible amount to the air-sea heat exchange, but the precipitation produced a negative buoyancy flux in the surface layer that overwhelmed the instability induced by the heat loss to the atmosphere. Integrated over the domain within 400 km of the hurricane eye on day 245.71 of 2004, the rate of heat anomaly in the surface water was estimated to be about 0.45 PW (1 PW = 1015 W), with about 20% (0.09 PW in total) of this was due to the heat exchange at the air-sea interface, and almost all the remainder (0.36 PW) was downward transported by oceanic vertical mixing. Shear production was the major source of turbulent kinetic energy amounting 88.5% of the source of turbulent kinetic energy, while the rest (11.5%) was attributed to the wind stirring at sea surface. The increase of ocean potential energy due to vertical mixing represented 7.3% of the energy deposited by wind stress.

3-D Voxel FEM Simulation of Seismic Wave Propagation in a Land-Sea Structure with Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikegami, Y.; Koketsu, K.

2003-12-01

We have already developed the voxel FEM (finite element method) code to simulate seismic wave propagation in a land structure with surface topography (Koketsu, Fujiwara and Ikegami, 2003). Although the conventional FEM often requires much larger memory, longer computation time and farther complicated mesh generation than the Finite Difference Method (FDM), this code consumes a similar amount of memory to FDM and spends only 1.4 times longer computation time thanks to the simplicity of voxels (hexahedron elements). The voxel FEM was successfully applied to inland earthquakes, but most earthquakes in a subduction zone occur beneath a sea, so that a simulation in a land-sea structure should be essential for waveform modeling and strong motion prediction there. We now introduce a domain of fluid elements into the model and formulate displacements in the elements using the Lagrange method. Sea-bottom motions are simulated for the simple land-sea models of Okamoto and Takenaka (1999). The simulation results agree well with their reflectivity and FDM seismograms. In order to enhance numerical stability, not only a variable mesh but also an adaptive time step is introduced. We can now choose the optimal time steps everywhere in the model based the Courant condition. This doubly variable formulation may result in inefficient parallel computing. The wave velocity in a shallow part is lower than that in a deeper part. Therefore, if the model is divided into horizontal slices and they are assigned to CPUs, a shallow slice will consist of only small elements. This can cause unbalanced loads on the CPUs. Accordingly, the model is divided into vertical slices in this study. They also reduce inter-processor communication, because a vertical cross section is usually smaller than a horizontal one. In addition, we will consider higher-order FEM formulation compatible to the fourth-order FDM. We will also present numerical examples to demonstrate the effects of a sea and surface topography on seismic waves and ground motions.

SAR Image Simulation of Ship Targets Based on Multi-Path Scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Y.; Wang, H.; Ma, H.; Li, K.; Xia, Z.; Hao, Y.; Guo, H.; Shi, H.; Liao, X.; Yue, H.

2018-04-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) plays an important role in the classification and recognition of ship targets because of its all-weather working ability and fine resolution. In SAR images, besides the sea clutter, the influence of the sea surface on the radar echo is also known as the so-called multipath effect. These multipath effects will generate some extra "pseudo images", which may cause the distortion of the target image and affect the estimation of the characteristic parameters. In this paper,the multipath effect of rough sea surface and its influence on the estimation of ship characteristic parameters are studied. The imaging of the first and the secondary reflection of sea surface is presented . The artifacts not only overlap with the image of the target itself, but may also appear in the sea near the target area. It is difficult to distinguish them, and this artifact has an effect on the length and width of the ship.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

Interactions of arctic clouds, radiation, and sea ice in present-day and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, Melissa Ann

The Arctic climate system involves complex interactions among the atmosphere, land surface, and the sea-ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Observed changes in the Arctic have emerged and projected climate trends are of significant concern. Surface warming over the last few decades is nearly double that of the entire Earth. Reduced sea-ice extent and volume, changes to ecosystems, and melting permafrost are some examples of noticeable changes in the region. This work is aimed at improving our understanding of how Arctic clouds interact with, and influence, the surface budget, how clouds influence the distribution of sea ice, and the role of downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) in climate change. In the first half of this study, we explore the roles of sea-ice thickness and downwelling longwave radiation in Arctic amplification. As the Arctic sea ice thins and ultimately disappears in a warming climate, its insulating power decreases. This causes the surface air temperature to approach the temperature of the relatively warm ocean water below the ice. The resulting increases in air temperature, water vapor and cloudiness lead to an increase in the surface downwelling longwave radiation, which enables a further thinning of the ice. This positive ice-insulation feedback operates mainly in the autumn and winter. A climate-change simulation with the Community Earth System Model shows that, averaged over the year, the increase in Arctic DLR is three times stronger than the increase in Arctic absorbed solar radiation at the surface. The warming of the surface air over the Arctic Ocean during fall and winter creates a strong thermal contrast with the colder surrounding continents. Sea-level pressure falls over the Arctic Ocean and the high-latitude circulation reorganizes into a shallow "winter monsoon." The resulting increase in surface wind speed promotes stronger surface evaporation and higher humidity over portions of the Arctic Ocean, thus reinforcing the ice-insulation feedback. In the second half of this study, we explore the effects of super-parameterization on the Arctic climate by evaluating a number of key atmospheric characteristics that strongly influence the regional and global climate. One aspect in particular that we examine is the occurrence of Arctic weather states. Observations show that during winter the Arctic exhibits two preferred and persistent states --- a radiatively clear and an opaquely cloudy state. These distinct regimes are influenced by the phase of the clouds and affect the surface radiative fluxes. We explore the radiative and microphysical effects of these Arctic clouds and the influence on these regimes in two present-day climate simulations. We compare simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart (SP-CESM). We find that the SP-CESM is able to better reproduce both of the preferred winter states, compared to CESM, and has an overall more realistic representation of the Arctic climate.

A parallel efficient partitioning algorithm for the statistical model of dynamic sea clutter at low grazing angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Wu, Zhensen; Linghu, Longxiang

2017-10-01

Study of characteristics of sea clutter is very important for signal processing of radar, detection of targets on sea surface and remote sensing. The sea state is complex at Low grazing angle (LGA), and it is difficult with its large irradiation area and a great deal simulation facets. A practical and efficient model to obtain radar clutter of dynamic sea in different sea condition is proposed, basing on the physical mechanism of interaction between electromagnetic wave and sea wave. The classical analysis method for sea clutter is basing on amplitude and spectrum distribution, taking the clutter as random processing model, which is equivocal in its physical mechanism. To achieve electromagnetic field from sea surface, a modified phase from facets is considered, and the backscattering coefficient is calculated by Wu's improved two-scale model, which can solve the statistical sea backscattering problem less than 5 degree, considering the effects of the surface slopes joint probability density, the shadowing function, the skewness of sea waves and the curvature of the surface on the backscattering from the ocean surface. We make the assumption that the scattering contribution of each facet is independent, the total field is the superposition of each facet in the receiving direction. Such data characters are very suitable to compute on GPU threads. So we can make the best of GPU resource. We have achieved a speedup of 155-fold for S band and 162-fold for Ku/Χ band on the Tesla K80 GPU as compared with Intel® Core™ CPU. In this paper, we mainly study the high resolution data, and the time resolution is millisecond, so we may have 10,00 time points, and we analyze amplitude probability density distribution of radar clutter.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Glistening-region model for multipath studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, Gordon W.; Chow, Winston C.

1998-07-01

The goal is to achieve a model of radar sea reflection with improved fidelity that is amenable to practical implementation. The geometry of reflection from a wavy surface is formulated. The sea surface is divided into two components: the smooth `chop' consisting of the longer wavelengths, and the `roughness' of the short wavelengths. Ordinary geometric reflection from the chop surface is broadened by the roughness. This same representation serves both for forward scatter and backscatter (sea clutter). The `Road-to-Happiness' approximation, in which the mean sea surface is assumed cylindrical, simplifies the reflection geometry for low-elevation targets. The effect of surface roughness is assumed to make the sea reflection coefficient depending on the `Deviation Angle' between the specular and the scattering directions. The `specular' direction is that into which energy would be reflected by a perfectly smooth facet. Assuming that the ocean waves are linear and random allows use of Gaussian statistics, greatly simplifying the formulation by allowing representation of the sea chop by three parameters. An approximation of `low waves' and retention of the sea-chop slope components only through second order provides further simplification. The simplifying assumptions make it possible to take the predicted 2D ocean wave spectrum into account in the calculation of sea-surface radar reflectivity, to provide algorithms for support of an operational system for dealing with target tracking in the presence of multipath. The product will be of use in simulated studies to evaluate different trade-offs in alternative tracking schemes, and will form the basis of a tactical system for ship defense against low flyers.

Amplified North Atlantic warming in the late Pliocene by changes in Arctic gateways

DOE PAGES

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Jahn, Alexandra; Feng, Ran; ...

2016-12-26

Under previous reconstructions of late Pliocene boundary conditions, climate models have failed to reproduce the warm sea surface temperatures reconstructed in the North Atlantic. Using a reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian paleogeography that has the Bering Strait and Canadian Arctic Archipelago Straits closed, however, improves the simulation of the proxy-indicated warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in the Community Climate System Model. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by inhibiting freshwater transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading tomore » warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In conclusion, this indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the state of these Arctic gateways for past time periods is needed.« less

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Jahn, Alexandra; Feng, Ran

Under previous reconstructions of late Pliocene boundary conditions, climate models have failed to reproduce the warm sea surface temperatures reconstructed in the North Atlantic. Using a reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian paleogeography that has the Bering Strait and Canadian Arctic Archipelago Straits closed, however, improves the simulation of the proxy-indicated warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in the Community Climate System Model. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by inhibiting freshwater transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading tomore » warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In conclusion, this indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the state of these Arctic gateways for past time periods is needed.« less

Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Large, William G.; Briegleb, Bruce P.

2010-11-01

A new overflow parameterization (OFP) of density-driven flows through ocean ridges via narrow, unresolved channels has been developed and implemented in the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4. It represents exchanges from the Nordic Seas and the Antarctic shelves, associated entrainment, and subsequent injection of overflow product waters into the abyssal basins. We investigate the effects of the parameterized Denmark Strait (DS) and Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) overflows on the ocean circulation, showing their impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the North Atlantic climate. The OFP is based on the Marginal Sea Boundary Condition scheme of Price and Yang (1998), but there are significant differences that are described in detail. Two uncoupled (ocean-only) and two fully coupled simulations are analyzed. Each pair consists of one case with the OFP and a control case without this parameterization. In both uncoupled and coupled experiments, the parameterized DS and FBC source volume transports are within the range of observed estimates. The entrainment volume transports remain lower than observational estimates, leading to lower than observed product volume transports. Due to low entrainment, the product and source water properties are too similar. The DS and FBC overflow temperature and salinity properties are in better agreement with observations in the uncoupled case than in the coupled simulation, likely reflecting surface flux differences. The most significant impact of the OFP is the improved North Atlantic Deep Water penetration depth, leading to a much better comparison with the observational data and significantly reducing the chronic, shallow penetration depth bias in level coordinate models. This improvement is due to the deeper penetration of the southward flowing Deep Western Boundary Current. In comparison with control experiments without the OFP, the abyssal ventilation rates increase in the North Atlantic. In the uncoupled simulation with the OFP, the warm bias of the control simulation in the deep North Atlantic is substantially reduced along with salinity bias reductions in the northern North Atlantic. There are similar but more modest bias reductions in the deep temperature and salinity distributions especially in the northern North Atlantic in the coupled OFP case. In coupled simulations, there are noticeable impacts of the OFP on climate. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer by more than 5°C off the North American coast and by more than 1°C in the Nordic Sea with the OFP. The surface heat fluxes mostly act to diminish these SST changes. There are related changes in the sea level pressure, leading to about 15% weaker westerly wind stress in the northern North Atlantic. In response to the warmer Nordic Sea SSTs, there are reductions in the sea ice extent, improving comparisons with observations. Although the OFP cases improve many aspects of the simulations compared to observations, some significant biases remain, more in coupled than in uncoupled simulations.

Simulation of nitrate reduction in groundwater - An upscaling approach from small catchments to the Baltic Sea basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, A. L.; Donnelly, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Karlsson, I. B.

2018-01-01

This paper describes a modeling approach proposed to simulate the impact of local-scale, spatially targeted N-mitigation measures for the Baltic Sea Basin. Spatially targeted N-regulations aim at exploiting the considerable spatial differences in the natural N-reduction taking place in groundwater and surface water. While such measures can be simulated using local-scale physically-based catchment models, use of such detailed models for the 1.8 million km2 Baltic Sea basin is not feasible due to constraints on input data and computing power. Large-scale models that are able to simulate the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand, do not have adequate spatial resolution to simulate some of the field-scale measures. Our methodology combines knowledge and results from two local-scale physically-based MIKE SHE catchment models, the large-scale and more conceptual E-HYPE model, and auxiliary data in order to enable E-HYPE to simulate how spatially targeted regulation of agricultural practices may affect N-loads to the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the use of E-HYPE with this upscaling methodology enables the simulation of the impact on N-loads of applying a spatially targeted regulation at the Baltic Sea basin scale to the correct order-of-magnitude. The E-HYPE model together with the upscaling methodology therefore provides a sound basis for large-scale policy analysis; however, we do not expect it to be sufficiently accurate to be useful for the detailed design of local-scale measures.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

2013-09-01

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Late Quaternary Variability of Arctic Sea Ice: Insights From Biomarker Proxy Records and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, R. H.; Fahl, K.; Gierz, P.; Niessen, F.; Lohmann, G.

2017-12-01

Over the last about four decades, coinciding with global warming and atmospheric CO2increase, the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, a decrease much more rapid than predicted by climate models. The driving forces of this change are still not fully understood. In this context, detailed paleoclimatic records going back beyond the timescale of direct observations, i.e., high-resolution Holocene records but also records representing more distant warm periods, may help to to distinguish and quantify more precisely the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing of global climate change and related sea ice decrease. Here, we concentrate on sea ice biomarker records representing the penultimate glacial/last interglacial (MIS 6/MIS 5e) and the Holocene time intervals. Our proxy records are compared with climate model simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Based on our data, polynya-type sea ice conditions probably occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins during late MIS 6. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even during MIS 5e, i.e., a time interval when the high latitudes have been significantly warmer than today, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Assuming a closed Bering Strait (no Pacific Water inflow) during early MIS 5, model simulations point to a significantly reduced sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a scenario that is however not supported by the proxy record and thus seems to be less realistic. Our Holocene biomarker proxy records from the Chukchi Sea indicate that main factors controlling the millennial Holocene variability in sea ice are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation. Here, increased Pacific Water inflow (and heat flux) may have triggered the contemporaneous decrease in sea ice and maximum surface-water productivity during mid-Holocene times.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

The Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on Organized Convective Storms Crossing over Coastlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, K.

2016-02-01

As organized coastal convective storms develop over land and move over the coastal ocean, their storm-scale structures, intensity, and associated weather threats evolve. This study aims to quantify the impact of sea surface temperature on the fundamental mechanisms controlling the evolution of coastal quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) as they move offshore. Results from this work will contribute to the improved predictability of these coastal, potentially severe warm season storms. The current work systematically studies the interaction between QLCSs and marine atmospheric boundary layers (MABLs) associated with the coastal ocean in an idealized numerical framework. The initial simulations are run in 2-dimensions, with a 250 m horizontal resolution and a vertical resolution ranging from 100 m in the lowest 3000 m stretched to 250 m at the top of the 20 km domain. To create a numerical environment representative of a coastal region, the western half of the 800 km domain is configured to represent a land surface, while the eastern half represents a water surface. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the influence of sea surface temperature and the overlying MABL on coastal QLCSs. Sea surface temperature values are selected to represent values observed within the Mid-Atlantic Bight coastal waters, including 5oC (min SST - January), 14oC (early summer), and 23oC (late summer). The numerical MABL is allowed to develop through surface heat fluxes. Preliminary simulations indicate that SST influences storm structure, with the stratiform precipitation shield becoming progressively wider as SST increases. SST also impacts propagation speed; once the storms are over the water, the early and late summer QLCSs move more quickly than the min SST storm. The physical mechanisms contributing to these and other differences will be discussed.

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Krikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

The effect of surface boundary conditions on the climate generated by a coarse-mesh general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, C.

1981-01-01

A hierarchy of experiments was run, starting with an all water planet with zonally symmetric sea surface temperatures, then adding, one at a time, flat continents, mountains, surface physics, and realistic sea surface temperatures. The model was run with the sun fixed at a perpetual January. Ensemble means and standard deviations were computed and the t-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the results. The addition of realistic surface physics does not affect the model climatology to as large as extent as does the addition of mountains. Departures from zonal symmetry of the SST field result in a better simulation of the real atmosphere.

Sensitivity of WRF-ARW for Heavy Precipitation Event over the Eastern Black Sea Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doǧan, Onur Hakan; Önol, Barış

2017-04-01

In this study, we examined the extreme summer precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using WRF-ARW. 11 people were killed by the flood and many buildings were damaged by the landslides in Artvin province. The flood caused by heavy precipitation between August 23 and 24, 2015 and the station observation is 255 mm total precipitation for the two days. We have also used satellite based observational data (Global Precipitation Measurement: GPM), which represents 150 mm total precipitation during case, to validate precipitation simulations. We designed three nested domains with 27-9-3 km resolutions for the simulations and the inner domain covers the all Black Sea and the surrounded coasts. The simulations have been driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim data and the initial conditions have been generated for 4 different simulations which are 3-days, 7-days, 15-days and 25-days long. WRF-ARW model physics parameters have been tested to improve simulation capability for extreme precipitation events. The microphysics (Kessler and New-Thompson) and PBL (YSU PBL and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic) options have been applied for each simulations separately, therefore 15 sensitivity simulation have been analyzed by using different parametrizations. In general, all simulations underestimated the two days extreme precipitation event which the large scale flow interact with warmer sea surface temperatures and complex topography over the eastern Black Sea region. The 3-days simulation with Kessler microphysics and YSU PBL predicts 148 mm precipitation which is highest simulated precipitation compare to all simulations for the corresponding station location. Moreover 25-days simulation represents better spatial coverage for precipitation pattern compare to the GPM data.

Sea wind parameters retrieval using Y-configured Doppler navigation system data. Performance and accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachaturian, A. B.; Nekrasov, A. V.; Bogachev, M. I.

2018-05-01

The authors report the results of the computer simulations of the performance and accuracy of the sea wind speed and direction retrieval. The analyzed measurements over the sea surface are made by the airborne microwave Doppler navigation system (DNS) with three Y-configured beams operated as a scatterometer enhancing its functionality. Single- and double-stage wind measurement procedures are proposed and recommendations for their implementation are described.

Simulation of Dust Radiative Impact on the Red Sea Using Coupled Regional Ocean/Atmosphere Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on the Middle East regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high (exceeding 1) dust optical depths over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. The radiative forcing of dust at the sea surface exceeds 120 Wm-2. The effect of this forcing to the Red Sea thermal regime and circulations is not well quantified yet. Therefore here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.5-0.7K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, fresh water and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in the future modeling studies.

Comparison of CFD simulations with experimental data for a tanker model advancing in waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orihara, Hideo

2011-03-01

In this paper, CFD simulation results for a tanker model are compared with experimental data over a range of wave conditions to verify a capability to predict the sea-keeping performance of practical hull forms. CFD simulations are conducted using WISDAM-X code which is capable of unsteady RANS calculations in arbitrary wave conditions. Comparisons are made of unsteady surface pressures, added resistance and ship motions in regular waves for cases of fully-loaded and ballast conditions of a large tanker model. It is shown that the simulation results agree fairly well with the experimental data, and that WISDAM-X code can predict sea-keeping performance of practical hull forms.

Environmental and internal controls of tropical cyclone intensity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desflots, Melicie

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is governed by internal dynamics and environmental conditions. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for TC intensity changes with a particular focus to those related to the vertical wind shear and the impact of sea spray on the hurricane boundary layer, by using high resolution, full physics numerical simulations. The coupled model consists of three components: the non-hydrostatic, 5th generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), the NOAA/NCEP WAVEWATCH III (WW3) ocean surface wave model, and the WHOI three-dimensional upper ocean circulation model (3DPWP). Sea spray parameterizations (SSP) were developed at NOAA/ESRL, modified by the author and introduced in uncoupled and coupled simulations. The 0.5 km grid resolution MM5 simulation of Hurricane Lili showed a rapid intensification associated with a contracting eyewall. Hurricane Lili weakened in a 5-10 m s-1 vertical wind shear environment. The simulated storm experienced wind shear direction normal to the storm motion, which produced a strong wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry in the downshear-left quadrant of the storm. The increasing vertical wind shear induced a vertical tilt of the vortex with a time lag of 5-6 hours after the wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry was first observed in the model simulation. Other factors controlling intensity and intensity change in tropical cyclones are the air-sea fluxes. Recent studies have shown that the momentum exchange coefficient levels off at high wind speed. However, the behavior of the exchange coefficient for enthalpy flux in high wind and the potential impact of sea spray on it is still uncertain. The current SSP are closely tied to wind speed and overestimate the mediated heat fluxes by sea spray in the hurricane boundary layer. As the sea spray generation depends on wind speed and the variable wave state, a new SSP based on the surface wave energy dissipation (WED) is introduced in the coupled model. In the coupled simulations, the WED is used to quantify the amount of wave breaking related to the generation of spray. The SSP coupled to the waves offers an improvement compared to the wind dependent SSP.

Numerical simulation of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina (2005): Sensitivity to boundary layer parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianjun; Zhang, Feimin; Pu, Zhaoxia

2017-04-01

Accurate forecasting of the intensity changes of hurricanes is an important yet challenging problem in numerical weather prediction. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina (2005) before its landfall in the southern US is studied with the Advanced Research version of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to two popular planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and the Yonsei University (YSU) schemes, is investigated. It is found that, compared with the YSU simulation, the simulation with the MYJ scheme produces better track and intensity evolution, better vortex structure, and more accurate landfall time and location. Large discrepancies (e.g., over 10 hPa in simulated minimum sea level pressure) are found between the two simulations during the rapid intensification period. Further diagnosis indicates that stronger surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL from the simulation with the MYJ scheme lead to enhanced air-sea interaction, which helps generate more realistic simulations of the rapid intensification process. Overall, the results from this study suggest that improved representation of surface fluxes and vertical mixing in the PBL is essential for accurate prediction of hurricane intensity changes.

Investigation of Turbulence Parametrization Schemes with Reference to the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Aegean Sea During Etesian Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandou, A.; Tombrou, M.; Kalogiros, J.; Bossioli, E.; Biskos, G.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Coe, H.

2017-08-01

The spatial structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the Aegean Sea is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. Two `first-order' non-local and five `1.5-order' local planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrization schemes are used. The predictions from the WRF model are evaluated against airborne observations obtained by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements BAe-14 research aircraft during the Aegean-GAME field campaign. Statistical analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations especially at low altitude. Despite the differences between the predicted and measured wind speeds, they reach an agreement index of 0.76. The simulated wind-speed fields close to the surface differ substantially among the schemes (maximum values range from 13 to 18 m s^{-1} at 150-m height), but the differences become marginal at higher levels. In contrast, all schemes show similar spatial variation patterns in potential temperature fields. A warmer (1-2 K) and drier (2-3 g kg^{-1}) layer than is observed, is predicted by almost all schemes under stable conditions (eastern Aegean Sea), whereas a cooler (up to 2 K) and moister (1-2 g kg^{-1}) layer is simulated under near-neutral to nearly unstable conditions (western Aegean Sea). Almost all schemes reproduce the vertical structure of the PBL and the shallow MABL (up to 300 m) well, including the low-level jet in the eastern Aegean Sea, with non-local schemes being closer to observations. The simulated PBL depths diverge (up to 500 m) due to the different criteria applied by the schemes for their calculation. Under stable conditions, the observed MABL depth corresponds to the height above the sea surface where the simulated eddy viscosity reaches a minimum; under neutral to slightly unstable conditions this is close to the top of the simulated entrainment layer. The observed sensible heat fluxes vary from -40 to 25 W m^{-2}, while the simulated fluxes range from -40 to 40 W m^{-2}; however, all of the schemes' predictions are close to the observations under unstable conditions. Finally, all schemes overestimate the friction velocity, although the simulated range (from 0.2 to 0.5 m s^{-1}) is narrower than that observed (from 0.1 to 0.7 m s^{-1}).

North-western Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation in a regional climate system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Stéfanon, Marc

2017-04-01

In the Mediterranean basin, moisture transport can occur over large distance from remote regions by the synoptic circulation or more locally by sea breezes, driven by land-sea thermal contrast. Sea breezes play an important role in inland transport of moisture especially between late spring and early fall. In order to explicitly represent the two-way interactions at the atmosphere-ocean interface in the Mediterranean region and quantify the role of air-sea feedbacks on regional meteorology and climate, simulations at 20 km resolution performed with WRF regional climate model (RCM) and MORCE atmosphere-ocean regional climate model (AORCM) coupling WRF and NEMO-MED12 in the frame of HyMeX/MED-CORDEX are compared. One result of this study is that these simulations reproduce remarkably well the intensity, direction and inland penetration of the sea breeze and even the existence of the shallow sea breeze despite the overestimate of temperature over land in both simulations. The coupled simulation provides a more realistic representation of the evolution of the SST field at fine scale than the atmosphere-only one. Temperature and moisture anomalies are created in direct response to the SST anomaly and are advected by the sea breeze over land. However, the SST anomalies are not of sufficient magnitude to affect the large-scale sea-breeze circulation. The temperature anomalies are quickly damped by strong surface heating over land, whereas the water vapor mixing ratio anomalies are transported further inland. The inland limit of significance is imposed by the vertical dilution in a deeper continental boundary-layer.

Wave inhibition by sea ice enables trans-Atlantic ice rafting of debris during Heinrich Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Dell, R.; Eisenman, I.; Keeling, R. F.; Padman, L.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

The thickness of the ice-rafted debris (IRD) layers that signal Heinrich Events declines far more gradually with distance from the iceberg sources than would be expected based on present-day iceberg trajectories. Here we model icebergs as passive Lagrangian tracers driven by ocean currents, winds, and sea surface temperatures. The icebergs are released in a comprehensive climate model simulation of the last glacial maximum (LGM), as well as a simulation of the modern climate. The two simulated climates result in qualitatively similar distributions of iceberg meltwater and hence debris, with the colder temperatures of the LGM having only a relatively small effect on meltwater spread. In both scenarios, meltwater flux falls off rapidly with zonal distance from the source, in contrast with the more uniform spread of IRD in sediment cores. In order to address this discrepancy, we propose a physical mechanism that could have prolonged the lifetime of icebergs during Heinrich events. The mechanism involves a surface layer of cold and fresh meltwater formed from, and retained around, densely packed armadas of icebergs. This leads to wintertime sea ice formation even in relatively low latitudes. The sea ice in turn shields the icebergs from wave erosion, which is the main source of iceberg ablation. We find that allowing sea ice to form around all icebergs during four months each winter causes the model to approximately agree with the distribution of IRD in sediment cores.

Anthropogenic Influence on the Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation in the South Pacific in the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, F.; Pizarro, O.; Montecinos, A.

2016-12-01

The subtropical ocean gyre in the South Pacific is a large scale wind-driven ocean circulation, including the Peru-Chile Current, the westward South Equatorial Current, the East Australian Current, and the eastward South Pacific Current. Large scale ocean circulations play an essential role in the climate of the Earth over long and short term time scales.In the recent years a spin-up of this circulation has been recognized analyzing observations of sea level, temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface temperature and wind. Until now it is not clear whether this spin-up is decadal variability or whether it is a long-term trend introduced by anthropogenic forcing. This study aims to analyze whether and how anthropogenic forcing influences the position and the strength of the gyre in the 20th century. To determine that, yearly means of different variables of an ensemble of CMIP5 models are analyzed. The experiments 'historical' and 'historicalNat' are examined. The 'historical' experiment simulates the climate of the 20th century and the 'historicalNat' experiment covers the same time period, but only includes natural forcings. Comparing the outcomes of these two experiments is supposed to give information about the anthropogenic influence on the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific.The main variable we analyze is sea level change. This is directly related to the gyre circulation. The center of the gyre is characterized by a high pressure zone (high sea level) and the temporal and spatial variability of the sea level height field gives information about changes in the gyre circulation. The CMIP5 databank includes steric and dynamic sea level changes. Steric sea level, that is the contribution of temperature and salinity of the water, describes the major contribution to regional sea level change with respect to the global mean. Density changes contract or expand the water, which also changes the sea surface height. This does not only occur at the surface, but at all layers in the ocean. Sea level change thus integrates ocean variability throughout the depth of the ocean. Sea level simulations of the different experiments are compared using long-term trends, multi-year anomalies and EOF-Analysis. Changes in temperature and salinity in the deeper ocean are used to describe the development of the gyre below the surface.

Pathways of Atlantic Waters in the Nordic seas: locally eddy-permitting ocean simulation in a global setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wekerle, C.; Wang, Q.; Danilov, S.; Jung, T.; Schourup-Kristensen, V.

2016-02-01

Atlantic Water (AW) passes through the Nordic Seas and enters the Arctic Ocean through the shallow Barents Sea and the deep Fram Strait. Since the 1990's, observations indicate a series of anomalously warm pulses of Atlantic Water that entered the Arctic Ocean. In fact, poleward oceanic heat transport may even increase in the future, which might have implications for the heat uptake in the Arctic Ocean as well as for the sea ice cover. The ability of models to faithfully simulate the pathway of the AW and accompanying dynamics is thus of high climate relevance. In this study, we explore the potential of a global multi-resolution sea ice-ocean model with a locally eddy-permitting resolution (around 4.5 km) in the Nordic seas region and Arctic Ocean in improving the representation of Atlantic Water inflow, and more broadly, the dynamics of the circulation in the Northern North Atlantic and Arctic. The simulation covers the time period 1969-2009. We find that locally increased resolution improves the localization and thickness of the Atlantic Water layer in the Nordic seas, compared with a 20 km resolution reference simulation. In particular, the inflow of Atlantic Waters through the Greenland Scotland Ridge and the narrow branches of the Norwegian Atlantic Current can be realistically represented. Lateral spreading due to simulated eddies essentially reduces the bias in the surface temperature. In addition, a qualitatively good agreement of the simulated eddy kinetic energy field with observations can be achieved. This study indicates that a substantial improvement in representing local ocean dynamics can be reached through the local refinement, which requires a rather moderate computational effort. The successful model assessment allows us to further investigate the variability and mechanisms behind Atlantic Water transport into the Arctic Ocean.

Methods for Improving Fine-Scale Applications of the WRF-CMAQ Modeling System

EPA Science Inventory

Presentation on the work in AMAD to improve fine-scale (e.g. 4km and 1km) WRF-CMAQ simulations. Includes iterative analysis, updated sea surface temperature and snow cover fields, and inclusion of impervious surface information (urban parameterization).

A High Resolution Study of Black Sea Circulation and Hypothetical Oil Spills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, D. E.; Bowman, M. J.; Korotenko, K. A.

2008-12-01

A 1/24 deg resolution adaptation of the DieCAST ocean model simulates a realistically intense Rim Current and ubiquitous mesoscale coastal anticyclonic eddies that result from anticyclonic vorticity generation by laterally differential bottom drag forces that are amplified near Black Sea coastal headlands. Climatological and synoptic surface forcings are compared. The effects of vertical momentum transfer by known (by Synop region fishermen, as reported by Ballard National Geographic article) big amplitude internal waves are parameterized by big vertical viscosity. Sensitivity to vertical viscosity is shown. Results of simulated hypothetical oil spills are shown. A simple method to nowcast/forecast the Black Sea currents is described and early results are shown.

Detection of subsurface-intensified eddies from observations of the sea-surface: a case study for Mediterranean Water Eddies in a long-term high-resolution simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciani, Daniele; Carton, Xavier; Barbosa Aguiar, Ana Claudia; Peliz, Alvaro; Bashmachnikov, Igor; Ienna, Federico; Chapron, Bertrand

2017-04-01

Subsurface-intensified eddies are ubiquitous in the world ocean. They can be generated by exchanges of water masses between semi-enclosed evaporation basins and the open ocean or by deep convection. Past and recent studies have shown that these eddies are carriers of large amounts of heat and salt, that they are coherent over inter-annual timescales and that they can migrate for several thousands of miles from their origination areas towards the open ocean. Hence, subsurface-intensified eddies can influence the three-dimensional distribution of oceanic tracers at global scale. The synoptic knowledge of the eddies positions and mean pathways is then crucial for evaluating temperature and salinity budgets in the world ocean. At present day, satellite sensors constitute the ideal tool for the synoptic and global scale observations of the ocean. Since they only provide informations on the oceanic surface, we characterized the signatures that subsurface eddies generate at the sea-surface, to determine the extent to which they can be isolated from the surrounding surface turbulence and be considered as a trace of an underlying eddy. We studied the surface signature of subsurface-intensified anticyclones (Mediterranean Water Eddies - Meddies) in a realistic, long-term (20 years) and high resolution simulation (dx = 3 km) based on the ROMS model. The novelty and advantage of this approach is given by the simultaneous availability of the full 3D eddies characteristics, the ones of the background ocean and of the sea-surface (in terms of sea-surface height, temperature and salinity). This also allowed us to speculate on a synergy between different satellite observations for the automatic detection of subsurface eddies from space. The along trajectory properties and surface signatures of more than 90 long-lived Meddies were analyzed. We showed that the Meddies constantly generate positive anomalies in sea-surface height and that these anomalies are principally related to the Meddy potential vorticity structure at depth (around 1000 m below the sea-surface). Such anomalies were long-lived, mostly migrated exhibiting southwestward trajectories, their intensities were O(10 cm) and extended horizontally up to more than 300 km (around 1.5 times the Meddy diameter). On the other hand, the Meddies thermohaline surface signatures proved to be mostly dominated by the local surface conditions and their structure poorly correlated to the Meddy structure at depth (e.g. the Meddy volume-integrated salt and temperature content). These results point out that satellite altimetry is the most suitable approach to track subsurface-intensified eddies from observations of the sea-surface, also encouraging the use of future high-resolution altimetric observations (e.g. SWOT) to detect subsurface oceanic motions from satellite sensors.

Modeling marine boundary-layer clouds with a two-layer model: A one-dimensional simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Shouping

1993-01-01

A two-layer model of the marine boundary layer is described. The model is used to simulate both stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds in downstream simulations. Over cold sea surfaces, the model predicts a relatively uniform structure in the boundary layer with 90%-100% cloud fraction. Over warm sea surfaces, the model predicts a relatively strong decoupled and conditionally unstable structure with a cloud fraction between 30% and 60%. A strong large-scale divergence considerably limits the height of the boundary layer and decreases relative humidity in the upper part of the cloud layer; thus, a low cloud fraction results. The efffects of drizzle on the boundary-layer structure and cloud fraction are also studied with downstream simulations. It is found that drizzle dries and stabilizes the cloud layer and tends to decouple the cloud from the subcloud layer. Consequently, solid stratocumulus clouds may break up and the cloud fraction may decrease because of drizzle.

Sea ice roughness: the key for predicting Arctic summer ice albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landy, J.; Ehn, J. K.; Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Barber, D. G.

2017-12-01

Although melt ponds on Arctic sea ice evolve in stages, ice with smoother surface topography typically allows the pond water to spread over a wider area, reducing the ice-albedo and accelerating further melt. Building on this theory, we simulated the distribution of meltwater on a range of statistically-derived topographies to develop a quantitative relationship between premelt sea ice surface roughness and summer ice albedo. Our method, previously applied to ICESat observations of the end-of-winter sea ice roughness, could account for 85% of the variance in AVHRR observations of the summer ice-albedo [Landy et al., 2015]. Consequently, an Arctic-wide reduction in sea ice roughness over the ICESat operational period (from 2003 to 2008) explained a drop in ice-albedo that resulted in a 16% increase in solar heat input to the sea ice cover. Here we will review this work and present new research linking pre-melt sea ice surface roughness observations from Cryosat-2 to summer sea ice albedo over the past six years, examining the potential of winter roughness as a significant new source of sea ice predictability. We will further evaluate the possibility for high-resolution (kilometre-scale) forecasts of summer sea ice albedo from waveform-level Cryosat-2 roughness data in the landfast sea ice zone of the Canadian Arctic. Landy, J. C., J. K. Ehn, and D. G. Barber (2015), Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,714-10,720, doi:10.1002/2015GL066712.

Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Yoshizaki, Masanori; Shie, Chung-Lin; Kato, Teryuki

2002-01-01

Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).

Potential sea salt aerosol sources from frost flowers in the pan-Arctic region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Russell, Lynn M.; Burrows, Susannah M.

In order to better represent observed wintertime aerosol concentrations at Barrow, Alaska, we implemented an observationally-based parameterization for estimating sea salt production from frost flowers in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In this work, we evaluate the potential influence of this sea salt source on the pan-Arctic (60ºN-90ºN) climate. Results show that frost flower salt emissions substantially increase the modeled surface sea salt aerosol concentration in the winter months when new sea ice and frost flowers are present. The parameterization reproduces both the magnitude and seasonal variation of the observed submicron sea salt aerosol concentration at surface in Barrowmore » during winter much better than the standard CESM simulation without a frost-flower salt particle source. Adding these frost flower salt particle emissions increases aerosol optical depth by 10% and results in a small cooling at surface. The increase in salt particle mass concentrations of a factor of 8 provides nearly two times the cloud condensation nuclei concentration, as well as 10% increases in cloud droplet number and 40% increases in liquid water content near coastal regions adjacent to continents. These cloud changes reduce longwave cloud forcing by 3% and cause a small surface warming, increasing the downward longwave flux at the surface by 2 W m-2 in the pan-Arctic under the present-day climate.« less

DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Russell, Lynn M.

We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols andmore » cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.« less

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and air-sea feedback in the middle latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frankignoul, C.

1985-01-01

Current analytical models for large-scale air-sea interactions in the middle latitudes are reviewed in terms of known sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The scales and strength of different atmospheric forcing mechanisms are discussed, along with the damping and feedback processes controlling the evolution of the SST. Difficulties with effective SST modeling are described in terms of the techniques and results of case studies, numerical simulations of mixed-layer variability and statistical modeling. The relationship between SST and diabatic heating anomalies is considered and a linear model is developed for the response of the stationary atmosphere to the air-sea feedback. The results obtained with linear wave models are compared with the linear model results. Finally, sample data are presented from experiments with general circulation models into which specific SST anomaly data for the middle latitudes were introduced.

Radiative Properties of Smoke and Aerosol Over Land Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, Michael D.

2000-01-01

This talk discusses smoke and aerosol's radiative properties with particular attention to distinguishing the measurement over clear sky from clouds over land, sea, snow, etc. surfaces, using MODIS Airborne Simulator data from (Brazil, arctic sea ice and tundra and southern Africa, west Africa, and other ecosystems. This talk also discusses the surface bidirectional reflectance using Cloud Absorption Radiometer, BRDF measurements of Saudi Arabian desert, Persian Gulf, cerrado and rain forests in Brazil, sea ice, tundra, Atlantic Ocean, Great Dismal Swamp, Kuwait oil fire smoke. Recent upgrades to instrument (new TOMS UVA channels at 340 and 380 planned use in Africa (SAFARI 2000) and possibly for MEIDEX will also be discussed. This talk also plans to discuss the spectral variation of surface reflectance over land and the sensitivity of off-nadir view angles to correlation between visible near-infrared reflectance for use in remote sensing of aerosol over land.

Satellite monitoring of sea surface pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fielder, G.; Telfer, D. J. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Image processing techniques developed are well adapted to the exploration and isolation of local areas which exhibit small temperature differences between themselves and their surroundings. In the worst case of imagery of small areal extent of sea surface having no coastal boundary in the area, there is yet no method of distinguishing unambiguously an oil spill from fog, cloud, the effect produced by shallow sediments, or the effects of naturally occuring thermal fronts. In the case of uniform slicks of liquid North Sea oil in still air, laboratory simulation experiments show that, for oil thicknesses in excess of 1 or 2 mm, there is, under equilibrium conditions, little dependence of oil surface temperature on the thickness of the oil layer. The surface temperature of oil is consistently higher than that of water, the difference being about 1 K at low values of relative humidity, but tending to increase as the relative humidity increases.

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

A case study of sea breeze blocking regulated by sea surface temperature along the English south coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, J. K.; Chagnon, J. M.; Gray, S. L.

2014-05-01

The sensitivity of sea breeze structure to sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal orography is investigated in convection-permitting Met Office Unified Model simulations of a case study along the south coast of England. Changes in SST of 1 K are shown to significantly modify the structure of the sea breeze immediately offshore. On the day of the case study, the sea breeze was partially blocked by coastal orography, particularly within Lyme Bay. The extent to which the flow is blocked depends strongly on the static stability of the marine boundary layer. In experiments with colder SST, the marine boundary layer is more stable, and the degree of blocking is more pronounced. Although a colder SST would also imply a larger land-sea temperature contrast and hence a stronger onshore wind - an effect which alone would discourage blocking - the increased static stability exerts a dominant control over whether blocking takes place. The implications of prescribing fixed SST from climatology in numerical weather prediction model forecasts of the sea breeze are discussed.

Spaceborne Sensors Track Marine Debris Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reahard, Ross; Mitchell, Brandie; Lee, Lucas; Pezold, Blaise; Brook, Chris; Mallett, Candis; Barrett, Shelby; Albin, Aaron

2011-01-01

Marine debris is a problem for coastal areas throughout the world, including the Gulf of Mexico. To aid the NOAA Marine Debris Program in monitoring marine debris dispersal and regulating marine debris practices, sea surface height and height anomaly data provided by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, were utilized to help assess trash and other discarded items that routinely wash ashore in southeastern Texas, at Padre Island National Seashore. These data were generated from the NASA radar altimeter satellites TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, and Jason 2, as well as the European altimeter satellites ERS-1, ERS-2 (European Remote Sensing Satellite), and ENVISAT (Environmental Satellite). Sea surface temperature data from MODIS were used to study of the dynamics of the Loop Current. Sea surface height and MODIS data analysis were used to show that warm water in the core of eddies, which periodically separate from the Loop Current, can be as high as 30 cm above the surrounding water. These eddies are known to directly transfer marine debris to the western continental shelf and the elevated area of water can be tracked using satellite radar altimeter data. Additionally, using sea surface height, geostrophic velocity, and particle path data, foretracking and backtracking simulations were created. These simulation runs demonstrated that marine debris on Padre Island National Seashore may arise from a variety of sources, such as commercial fishing/shrimping, the oil and gas industry, recreational boaters, and from rivers that empty into the Gulf of Mexico.

Version 2 Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Nelkin, Eric; Ardizzone, Joe; Atlas, Robert M.; Shie, Chung-Lin; Starr, David O'C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Information on the turbulent fluxes of momentum, moisture, and heat at the air-sea interface is essential in improving model simulations of climate variations and in climate studies. We have derived a 13.5-year (July 1987-December 2000) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over global oceans from the Special Sensor Mcrowave/Imager (SSM/I) radiance measurements. This dataset, version 2 Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF2), has a spatial resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree latitude-longitude and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Turbulent fluxes are derived from the SSM/I surface winds and surface air humidity, as well as the 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, using a bulk aerodynamic algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, S. C.

2018-01-01

This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day - 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space-time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8-20 day mode among ensemble members.

Caribbean coral growth influenced by anthropogenic aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Cox, Peter M.; Economou, Theo; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Carilli, Jessica; Guzman, Hector M.

2013-05-01

Coral growth rates are highly dependent on environmental variables such as sea surface temperature and solar irradiance. Multi-decadal variability in coral growth rates has been documented throughout the Caribbean over the past 150-200 years, and linked to variations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Multi-decadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, in turn, has been linked to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Here, we examine the drivers of changes in coral growth rates in the western Caribbean between 1880 and 2000, using previously published coral growth chronologies from two sites in the region, and a numerical model. Changes in coral growth rates over this period coincided with variations in sea surface temperature and incoming short-wave radiation. Our model simulations show that variations in the concentration of anthropogenic aerosols caused variations in sea surface temperature and incoming radiation in the second half of the twentieth century. Before this, variations in volcanic aerosols may have played a more important role. With the exception of extreme mass bleaching events, we suggest that neither climate change from greenhouse-gas emissions nor ocean acidification is necessarily the driver of multi-decadal variations in growth rates at some Caribbean locations. Rather, the cause may be regional climate change due to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Radial orbit error reduction and sea surface topography determination using satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelis, Theodossios

1987-01-01

A method is presented in satellite altimetry that attempts to simultaneously determine the geoid and sea surface topography with minimum wavelengths of about 500 km and to reduce the radial orbit error caused by geopotential errors. The modeling of the radial orbit error is made using the linearized Lagrangian perturbation theory. Secular and second order effects are also included. After a rather extensive validation of the linearized equations, alternative expressions of the radial orbit error are derived. Numerical estimates for the radial orbit error and geoid undulation error are computed using the differences of two geopotential models as potential coefficient errors, for a SEASAT orbit. To provide statistical estimates of the radial distances and the geoid, a covariance propagation is made based on the full geopotential covariance. Accuracy estimates for the SEASAT orbits are given which agree quite well with already published results. Observation equations are develped using sea surface heights and crossover discrepancies as observables. A minimum variance solution with prior information provides estimates of parameters representing the sea surface topography and corrections to the gravity field that is used for the orbit generation. The simulation results show that the method can be used to effectively reduce the radial orbit error and recover the sea surface topography.

Presenting the Rain-Sea Interaction Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bliven, Larry F.; Elfouhaily, Tonas M.

1993-01-01

The new Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) was established at GSFC/WFF and the first finds are presented. The unique feature of this laboratory is the ability to systematically study microwave scattering from a water surface roughened by artificial rain, for which the droplets are at terminal velocity. The fundamental instruments and systems (e.g., the rain simulator, scatterometers, and surface elevation probes) were installed and evaluated during these first experiments - so the majority of the data were obtained with the rain simulator at 1 m above the water tank. From these initial experiments, three new models were proposed: the square-root function for NCS vs. R, the log Gaussian model for ring-wave elevation frequency spectrum, and the Erland probability density distribution for back scattered power. Rain rate is the main input for these models, although the coefficients may be dependent upon other factors (drop-size distribution, fall velocity, radar configuration, etc.). The facility is functional and we foresee collaborative studies with investigators who are engaged in measuring and modeling rain-sea interaction processes.

The seasonal sea-ice zone in the glacial Southern Ocean as a carbon sink

PubMed Central

Abelmann, Andrea; Gersonde, Rainer; Knorr, Gregor; Zhang, Xu; Chapligin, Bernhard; Maier, Edith; Esper, Oliver; Friedrichsen, Hans; Lohmann, Gerrit; Meyer, Hanno; Tiedemann, Ralf

2015-01-01

Reduced surface–deep ocean exchange and enhanced nutrient consumption by phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean have been linked to lower glacial atmospheric CO2. However, identification of the biological and physical conditions involved and the related processes remains incomplete. Here we specify Southern Ocean surface–subsurface contrasts using a new tool, the combined oxygen and silicon isotope measurement of diatom and radiolarian opal, in combination with numerical simulations. Our data do not indicate a permanent glacial halocline related to melt water from icebergs. Corroborated by numerical simulations, we find that glacial surface stratification was variable and linked to seasonal sea-ice changes. During glacial spring–summer, the mixed layer was relatively shallow, while deeper mixing occurred during fall–winter, allowing for surface-ocean refueling with nutrients from the deep reservoir, which was potentially richer in nutrients than today. This generated specific carbon and opal export regimes turning the glacial seasonal sea-ice zone into a carbon sink. PMID:26382319

Modeling and Evaluation of the Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Distribution: Sensitivity to Emission Schemes and Resolution Effects at Coastal/Orographic Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spada, M.; Jorba, O.; Perez Garcia-Pando, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano, J. M.

2013-01-01

One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multi-scale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 year global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 teragrams per year to 8114 teragrams per year, lifetime varies between 7.3 hours and 11.3 hours, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 teragrams and 7.2 teragrams. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8 percent to +38.8 percent. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from minus 9.5 percent to plus 28 percent and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

Multi-platform validation of a high-resolution model in the Western Mediterranean Sea: insight into spatial-temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Eva; Mourre, Baptiste; Heslop, Emma; Juza, Mélanie; Escudier, Romain; Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the validation of the high resolution Western Mediterranean Operational model (WMOP) developed at SOCIB, the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System. The Mediterranean Sea is often seen as a small scale ocean laboratory where energetic eddies, fronts and circulation features have important ecological consequences. The Medclic project is a program between "La Caixa" Foundation and SOCIB which aims at characterizing and forecasting the "oceanic weather" in the Western Mediterranean Sea, specifically investigating the interactions between the general circulation and mesoscale processes. We use a WMOP 2009-2015 free run hindcast simulation and available observational datasets (altimetry, moorings and gliders) to both assess the numerical simulation and investigate the ocean variability. WMOP has a 2-km spatial resolution and uses CMEMS Mediterranean products as initial and boundary conditions, with surface forcing from the high-resolution Spanish Meteorological Agency model HIRLAM. Different aspects of the spatial and temporal variability in the model are validated from local to regional and basin scales: (1) the principal axis of variability of the surface circulation using altimetry and moorings along the Iberian coast, (2) the inter-annual changes of the surface flows incorporating also glider data, (3) the propagation of mesoscale eddies formed in the Algerian sub-basin using altimetry, and (4) the statistical properties of eddies (number, rotation, size) applying an eddy tracker detection method in the Western Mediterranean Sea. With these key points evaluated in the model, EOF analysis of sea surface height maps are used to investigate spatial patterns of variability associated with eddies, gyres and the basis-scale circulation and so gain insight into the interconnections between sub-basins, as well as the interactions between physical processes at different scales.

Air-sea heat exchange, an element of the water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chahine, M. T.

1984-01-01

The distribution and variation of water vapor, clouds and precipitation are examined. Principal driving forces for these distributions are energy exchange and evaporation at the air-sea interface, which are also important elements of air-sea interaction studies. The overall aim of air-sea interaction studies is to quantitatively determine mass, momentum and energy fluxes, with the goal of understanding the mechanisms controlling them. The results of general circulation simulations indicate that the atmosphere in mid-latitudes responds to changes in the oceanic surface conditions in the tropics. This correlation reflects the strong interaction between tropical and mid-latitude conditions caused by the transport of heat and momentum from the tropics. Studies of air-sea exchanges involve a large number of physica, chemical and dynamical processes including heat flux, radiation, sea-surface temperature, precipitation, winds and ocean currents. The fluxes of latent heat are studied and the potential use of satellite data in determining them evaluated. Alternative ways of inferring heat fluxes will be considered.

A New Discrete Element Sea-Ice Model for Earth System Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Adrian Keith

Sea ice forms a frozen crust of sea water oating in high-latitude oceans. It is a critical component of the Earth system because its formation helps to drive the global thermohaline circulation, and its seasonal waxing and waning in the high north and Southern Ocean signi cantly affects planetary albedo. Usually 4{6% of Earth's marine surface is covered by sea ice at any one time, which limits the exchange of heat, momentum, and mass between the atmosphere and ocean in the polar realms. Snow accumulates on sea ice and inhibits its vertical growth, increases its albedo, and contributes to pooledmore » water in melt ponds that darken the Arctic ice surface in the spring. Ice extent and volume are subject to strong seasonal, inter-annual and hemispheric variations, and climatic trends, which Earth System Models (ESMs) are challenged to simulate accurately (Stroeve et al., 2012; Stocker et al., 2013). This is because there are strong coupled feedbacks across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary layers, including the ice-albedo feedback, whereby a reduced ice cover leads to increased upper ocean heating, further enhancing sea-ice melt and reducing incident solar radiation re ected back into the atmosphere (Perovich et al., 2008). A reduction in perennial Arctic sea-ice during the satellite era has been implicated in mid-latitude weather changes, including over North America (Overland et al., 2015). Meanwhile, most ESMs have been unable to simulate observed inter-annual variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent during the same period (Gagne et al., 2014).« less

Local and large-scale atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice and ocean warming in the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, David F.; Cassano, John J.; Serreze, Mark C.

2012-06-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to explore the sensitivity of the large-scale atmospheric energy and moisture budgets to prescribed changes in Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Observed sea ice fractions and SSTs from 1996 and 2007, representing years of high and low sea ice extent, are used as lower boundary conditions. A pan-Arctic domain extending into the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans is used. ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1994 to 2008 are employed as initial and lateral forcing data for each high and low sea ice simulation. The addition of a third ensemble, with a mixed SST field between years 1996 and 2007 (using 2007 SSTs above 66°N and 1996 values below), results in a total of three 15-member ensembles. Results of the simulations show both local and remote responses to reduced sea ice. The local polar cap averaged response is largest in October and November, dominated by increased turbulent heat fluxes resulting in vertically deep heating and moistening of the Arctic atmosphere. This warmer and moister atmosphere is associated with an increase in cloud cover, affecting the surface and atmospheric energy budgets. There is an enhancement of the hydrologic cycle, with increased evaporation in areas of sea ice loss paired with increased precipitation. Most of the Arctic climate response results from within-Arctic changes, although some changes in the hydrologic cycle reflect circulation responses to midlatitude SST forcing, highlighting the general sensitivity of the Arctic climate.

Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreau, Sébastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis; Zhou, Jiayun; Kotovitch, Marie; Thomas, David N.; Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Goosse, Hugues

2015-01-01

Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halothermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport, of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equations. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption, and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3·6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experiment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes are limited by DIC stocks, and therefore <2 mmol m-2 d-1, we argue that the observed much larger CO2 fluxes from eddy covariance retrievals cannot be explained by a sea ice direct source and must involve other processes or other sources of CO2. Finally, the simulations suggest that near-surface TA/DIC ratios of ˜2, sometimes used as an indicator of calcification, would rather suggest outgassing.

Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreau, Sébastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis; Zhou, Jiayun; Kotovich, Marie; Thomas, David; Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Goosse, Hugues

2015-04-01

Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halo-thermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport, of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equations. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3•6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6-month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska and an ice-tank experiment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes are limited by DIC stocks, and therefore < 2 mmol m-2 day-1, we argue that the observed much larger CO2 fluxes from eddy covariance retrievals cannot be explained by a sea ice direct source and must involve other processes or other sources of CO2. Finally, the simulations suggest that near surface TA/DIC ratios of ~2, sometimes used as an indicator of calcification, would rather suggest outgassing.

The contrasting response of Hadley circulation to different meridional structure of sea surface temperature in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping; Zhu, Jianlei; Li, Yang; Li, Fei

2018-02-01

The response of the Hadley circulation (HC) to the sea surface temperature (SST) is determined by the meridional structure of SST and varies according to the changing nature of this meridional structure. The capability of the models from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is utilized to represent the contrast response of the HC to different meridional SST structures. To evaluate the responses, the variations of HC and SST were linearly decomposed into two components: the equatorially asymmetric (HEA for HC, and SEA for SST) and equatorially symmetric (HES for HC, and SES for SST) components. The result shows that the climatological features of HC and tropical SST (including the spatial structures and amplitude) are reasonably simulated in all the models. However, the response contrast of HC to different SST meridional structures shows uncertainties among models. This may be due to the fact that the long-term temporal variabilities of HEA, HES, and SEA are limited reproduced in the models, although the spatial structures of their long-term variabilities are relatively reasonably simulated. These results indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 models to simulate long-term temporal variability of different meridional SST structures and related HC variations plays a fundamental role in the successful reproduction of the response of HC to different meridional SST structures.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...

2016-02-01

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less

Intraseasonal variability of sea level and circulation in the Gulf of Thailand: the role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.

2014-01-01

Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index.

Red Sea circulation during marine isotope stage 5e

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siccha, Michael; Biton, Eli; Gildor, Hezi

2015-04-01

We have employed a regional Massachusetts Institute of Technology oceanic general circulation model of the Red Sea to investigate its circulation during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, the peak of the last interglacial, approximately 125 ka before present. Compared to present-day conditions, MIS 5e was characterized by higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, accompanied by increases in air temperature of more than 2°C and global sea level approximately 8 m higher than today. As a consequence of the increased seasonality, intensified monsoonal conditions with increased winds, rainfall, and humidity in the Red Sea region are evident in speleothem records and supported by model simulations. To assess the dominant factors responsible for the observed changes, we conducted several sensitivity experiments in which the MIS 5 boundary conditions or forcing parameters were used individually. Overall, our model simulation for the last interglacial maximum reconstructs a Red Sea that is colder, less ventilated and probably more oligotrophic than at present day. The largest alteration in Red Sea circulation and properties was found for the simulation of the northward displacement and intensification of the African tropical rain belt during MIS 5e, leading to a notable increase in the fresh water flux into the Red Sea. Such an increase significantly reduced the Red Sea salinity and exchange volume of the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea reacted to the MIS 5e insolation forcing by the expected increase in seasonal sea surface temperature amplitude and overall cooling caused by lower temperatures during deep water formation in winter.

Evaluation of Ocean Models Using Observed and Simulated Drifter Trajectories: Impact of Sea Surface Height on Synthetic Profiles for Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-07-17

in the study of Lumpkin and North Atlantic 0°-80’N 100*-0°W 29 Pazos [2007]. North Brazil Current 00-20ON 70°-40OW 36 [IS] Simulated trajectories are...ShelfRes., 21, 47-67. field. The observed drifter is a sample among many possible Lumpkin, R., and M. Pazos (2007), Measuring surface currents with Sur

On the tidally driven circulation in the South China Sea: modeling and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelko, Varjola; Saha, Abhishek; Chua, Vivien P.

2014-03-01

The South China Sea is a large marginal sea surrounded by land masses and island chains, and characterized by complex bathymetry and irregular coastlines. An unstructured-grid SUNTANS model is employed to perform depth-averaged simulations of the circulation in the South China Sea. The model is tidally forced at the open ocean boundaries using the eight main tidal constituents as derived from the OSU Tidal Prediction Software. The model simulations are performed for the year 2005 using a time step of 60 s. The model reproduces the spring-neap and diurnal and semidiurnal variability in the observed data. Skill assessment of the model is performed by comparing model-predicted surface elevations with observations. For stations located in the central region of the South China Sea, the root mean squared errors (RMSE) are less than 10 % and the Pearson's correlation coefficient ( r) is as high as 0.9. The simulations show that the quality of the model prediction is dependent on the horizontal grid resolution, coastline accuracy, and boundary locations. The maximum RMSE errors and minimum correlation coefficients occur at Kaohsiung (located in northern South China Sea off Taiwan coast) and Tioman (located in southern South China Sea off Malaysia coast). This may be explained with spectral analysis of sea level residuals and winds, which reveal dynamics at Kaohsiung and Tioman are strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon winds. Our model demonstrates the importance of tidally driven circulation in the central region of the South China Sea.

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean. However, the COSTRICE simulations are generally more accurate than the atmosphere-only CCLM simulations if extreme precipitation is considered, particularly under Northerly Circulation conditions, in which the airflow from the North Atlantic Ocean passes the North Sea in the coupling domain. The air-sea feedback (e.g., wind, evaporation and sea surface temperature) and land-sea interactions are better reproduced with the COSTRICE model system than the atmosphere-only CCLM and lead to an improved simulation of large-scale moisture convergence from the sea to land and, consequently, increased heavy precipitation over Central Europe.

Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.

1982-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

2018-05-01

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

Validation of the Fully-Coupled Air-Sea-Wave COAMPS System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; Campbell, T. J.; Chen, S.; Gabersek, S.; Tsu, J.; Allard, R. A.

2017-12-01

A fully-coupled, air-sea-wave numerical model, COAMPS®, has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory to further enhance understanding of oceanic, atmospheric, and wave interactions. The fully-coupled air-sea-wave system consists of an atmospheric component with full physics parameterizations, an ocean model, NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model), and two wave components, SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) and WaveWatch III. Air-sea interactions between the atmosphere and ocean components are accomplished through bulk flux formulations of wind stress and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Wave interactions with the ocean include the Stokes' drift, surface radiation stresses, and enhancement of the bottom drag coefficient in shallow water due to the wave orbital velocities at the bottom. In addition, NCOM surface currents are provided to SWAN and WaveWatch III to simulate wave-current interaction. The fully-coupled COAMPS system was executed for several regions at both regional and coastal scales for the entire year of 2015, including the U.S. East Coast, Western Pacific, and Hawaii. Validation of COAMPS® includes observational data comparisons and evaluating operational performance on the High Performance Computing (HPC) system for each of these regions.

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Problems inherent in using aircraft for radio oceanography studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, E. J.

1977-01-01

Some of the disadvantages relating to altitude stability and proximity to the ocean are described for radio oceanography studies using aircraft. The random oscillatory motion introduced by the autopilot in maintaining aircraft altitude requires a more sophisticated range tracker for a radar altimeter than would be required in a satellite application. One-dimensional simulations of the sea surface (long-crested waves) are performed using both the JONSWAP spectrum and the Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum. The results of the simulation indicate that care must be taken in trying to experimentally verify instrument measurement accuracy. Because of the relatively few wavelengths examined from an aircraft due to proximity to the ocean and low velocity compared to a satellite, the random variation in the sea surface parameters being measured can far exceed an instrument's ability to measure them.

Toward Surface Mass Balance Modeling over Antarctic Peninsula with Improved Snow/Ice Physics within WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamil-Otero, G.; Zhang, J.; Yao, Y.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has long been the focus of climate change studies due to its rapid environmental changes such as significantly increased glacier melt and retreat, and ice-shelf break-up. Progress has been continuously made in the use of regional modeling to simulate surface mass changes over ice sheets. Most efforts, however, focus on the ice sheets of Greenland with considerable fewer studies in Antarctica. In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been applied to the Antarctic region for weather modeling, is adopted to capture the past and future surface mass balance changes over AP. In order to enhance the capabilities of WRF model simulating surface mass balance over the ice surface, we implement various ice and snow processes within the WRF and develop a new WRF suite (WRF-Ice). The WRF-Ice includes a thermodynamic ice sheet model that improves the representation of internal melting and refreezing processes and the thermodynamic effects over ice sheet. WRF-Ice also couples a thermodynamic sea ice model to improve the simulation of surface temperature and fluxes over sea ice. Lastly, complex snow processes are also taken into consideration including the implementation of a snowdrift model that takes into account the redistribution of blowing snow as well as the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer. Intensive testing of these ice and snow processes are performed to assess the capability of WRF-Ice in simulating the surface mass balance changes over AP.

An unified numerical simulation of seismic ground motion, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations and tsunamis of 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Furumura, T.; Noguchi, S.; Takemura, S.; Iwai, K.; Lee, S.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.

2011-12-01

The fault rupture of the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake spread approximately 550 km by 260 km with a long source rupture duration of ~200 s. For such large earthquake with a complicated source rupture process the radiation of seismic wave from the source rupture and initiation of tsunami due to the coseismic deformation is considered to be very complicated. In order to understand such a complicated process of seismic wave, coseismic deformation and tsunami, we proposed a unified approach for total modeling of earthquake induced phenomena in a single numerical scheme based on a finite-difference method simulation (Maeda and Furumura, 2011). This simulation model solves the equation of motion of based on the linear elastic theory with equilibrium between quasi-static pressure and gravity in the water column. The height of tsunami is obtained from this simulation as a vertical displacement of ocean surface. In order to simulate seismic waves, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations, and tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we assembled a high-resolution 3D heterogeneous subsurface structural model of northern Japan. The area of simulation is 1200 km x 800 km and 120 km in depth, which have been discretized with grid interval of 1 km in horizontal directions and 0.25 km in vertical direction, respectively. We adopt a source-rupture model proposed by Lee et al. (2011) which is obtained by the joint inversion of teleseismic, near-field strong motion, and coseismic deformation. For conducting such a large-scale simulation, we fully parallelized our simulation code based on a domain-partitioning procedure which achieved a good speed-up by parallel computing up to 8192 core processors with parallel efficiency of 99.839%. The simulation result demonstrates clearly the process in which the seismic wave radiates from the complicated source rupture over the fault plane and propagating in heterogeneous structure of northern Japan. Then, generation of tsunami from coseismic ground deformation at sea floor due to the earthquake and propagation is also well demonstrated . The simulation also demonstrates that a very large slip up to 40 m at shallow plate boundary near the trench pushes up sea floor with source rupture propagation, and the highly elevated sea surface gradually start propagation as tsunamis due to the gravity. The result of simulation of vertical-component displacement waveform matches the ocean-bottom pressure gauge record which is installed just above the source fault area (Maeda et al., 2011) very consistently. Strong reverberation of the ocean-acoustic waves between sea surface and sea bottom particularly near the Japan Trench for long time after the source rupture ends is confirmed in the present simulation. Accordingly, long wavetrains of high-frequency ocean acoustic waves is developed and overlap to later tsunami waveforms as we found in the observations.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic surface mass balance to oceanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, C.; Amory, C.; Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) are suitable numerical tools to study the surface mass balance (SMB) of the wide polar ice sheets due to their high spatial resolution and polar-adapted physics. Nonetheless, RCMs are driven at their boundaries and over the ocean by reanalysis or global climate model (GCM) products and are thus influenced by potential biases in these large-scale fields. These biases can be significant for both the atmosphere and the sea surface conditions (i.e. sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature). With the RCM MAR, a set of sensitivity experiments has been realized to assess the direct response of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet to oceanic perturbations. MAR is forced by ERA-Interim and anomalies based on mean GCM biases are introduced in sea surface conditions. Results show significant increases (decreases) of liquid and solid precipitation due to biases related to warm (cold) oceans. As precipitation is mainly caused by low-pressure systems that intrude into the continent and do not penetrate far inland, coastal areas are more sensitive than inland regions. Furthermore, warm ocean representative biases lead to anomalies as large as anomalies simulated by other RCMs or GCMs for the end of the 21st century.

Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain: A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun; Peng, Dongdong

2016-02-01

The FROALS (flexible regional ocean-atmosphere-land system) model, a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model, has been applied to the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain. Driven by historical simulations from a global climate system model, dynamical downscaling for the period from 1980 to 2005 has been conducted at a uniform horizontal resolution of 50 km. The impacts of regional air-sea couplings on the simulations of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall have been investigated, and comparisons have been made to corresponding simulations performed using a stand-alone regional climate model (RCM). The added value of the FROALS model with respect to the driving global climate model was evident in terms of both climatology and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over East China by the contributions of both the high horizontal resolution and the reasonably simulated convergence of the moisture fluxes. Compared with the stand-alone RCM simulations, the spatial pattern of the simulated low-level monsoon flow over East Asia and the western North Pacific was improved in the FROALS model due to its inclusion of regional air-sea coupling. The results indicated that the simulated sea surface temperature (SSTs) resulting from the regional air-sea coupling were lower than those derived directly from the driving global model over the western North Pacific north of 15°N. These colder SSTs had both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, they strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high, which improved the simulation of the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia. On the other hand, the colder SSTs suppressed surface evaporation and favored weaker local interannual variability in the SST, which led to less summer rainfall and weaker interannual rainfall variability over the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Overall, the reference simulation performed using the FROALS model is reasonable in terms of rainfall over the land area of East Asia and will become the basis for the generation of climate change scenarios for the CORDEX East Asia domain that will be described in future reports.

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.-H.; Shie, C.-L.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Direct and semi-direct aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate variability using a coupled regional climate system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc; Sevault, Florence; Chiacchio, Marc; Wild, Martin

2015-02-01

A fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) has been used over the Mediterranean region to investigate the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols, but also their role in the radiation-atmosphere-ocean interactions through multi-annual ensemble simulations (2003-2009) with and without aerosols and ocean-atmosphere coupling. Aerosols have been taken into account in CNRM-RCSM4 through realistic interannual monthly AOD climatologies. An evaluation of the model has been achieved, against various observations for meteorological parameters, and has shown the ability of CNRM-RCSM4 to reproduce the main patterns of the Mediterranean climate despite some biases in sea surface temperature (SST), radiation and cloud cover. The results concerning the aerosol radiative effects show a negative surface forcing on average because of the absorption and scattering of the incident radiation. The SW surface direct effect is on average -20.9 Wm-2 over the Mediterranean Sea, -14.7 Wm-2 over Europe and -19.7 Wm-2 over northern Africa. The LW surface direct effect is weaker as only dust aerosols contribute (+4.8 Wm-2 over northern Africa). This direct effect is partly counterbalanced by a positive semi-direct radiative effect over the Mediterranean Sea (+5.7 Wm-2 on average) and Europe (+5.0 Wm-2) due to changes in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation. The total aerosol effect is consequently negative at the surface and responsible for a decrease in land (on average -0.4 °C over Europe, and -0.5 °C over northern Africa) and sea surface temperature (on average -0.5 °C for the Mediterranean SST). In addition, the latent heat loss is shown to be weaker (-11.0 Wm-2) in the presence of aerosols, resulting in a decrease in specific humidity in the lower troposphere, and a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation. Simulations also indicate that dust aerosols warm the troposphere by absorbing solar radiation, and prevent radiation from reaching the surface, thus stabilizing the troposphere. The comparison with the model response in atmosphere-only simulations shows that these feedbacks are attenuated if SST cannot be modified by aerosols, highlighting the importance of using coupled regional models over the Mediterranean. Oceanic convection is also strengthened by aerosols, which tends to reinforce the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. In parallel, two case studies are presented to illustrate positive feedbacks between dust aerosols and regional climate. First, the eastern Mediterranean was subject to high dust aerosol loads in June 2007 which reduce land and sea surface temperature, as well as air-sea humidity fluxes. Because of northern wind over the eastern Mediterranean, drier and cooler air has been consequently advected from the sea to the African continent, reinforcing the direct dust effect over land. On the contrary, during the western European heat wave in June 2006, dust aerosols have contributed to reinforcing an important ridge responsible for dry and warm air advection over western Europe, and thus to increasing lower troposphere (+0.8 °C) and surface temperature (+0.5 °C), namely about 15 % of this heat wave.

The study of the effects of sea-spray drops on the marine atmospheric boundary layer by direct numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druzhinin, O.; Troitskaya, Yu; Zilitinkevich, S.

2018-01-01

The detailed knowledge of turbulent exchange processes occurring in the atmospheric marine boundary layer are of primary importance for their correct parameterization in large-scale prognostic models. These processes are complicated, especially at sufficiently strong wind forcing conditions, by the presence of sea-spray drops which are torn off the crests of sufficiently steep surface waves by the wind gusts. Natural observations indicate that mass fraction of sea-spray drops increases with wind speed and their impact on the dynamics of the air in the vicinity of the sea surface can become quite significant. Field experiments, however, are limited by insufficient accuracy of the acquired data and are in general costly and difficult. Laboratory modeling presents another route to investigate the spray-mediated exchange processes in much more detail as compared to the natural experiments. However, laboratory measurements, contact as well as Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) methods, also suffer from inability to resolve the dynamics of the near-surface air-flow, especially in the surface wave troughs. In this report, we present a first attempt to use Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) as tool for investigation of the drops-mediated momentum, heat and moisture transfer in a turbulent, droplet-laden air flow over a wavy water surface. DNS is capable of resolving the details of the transfer processes and do not involve any closure assumptions typical of Large-Eddy and Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (LES and RANS) simulations. Thus DNS provides a basis for improving parameterizations in LES and RANS closure models and further development of large-scale prognostic models. In particular, we discuss numerical results showing the details of the modification of the air flow velocity, temperature and relative humidity fields by multidisperse, evaporating drops. We use Eulerian-Lagrangian approach where the equations for the air-flow fields are solved in a Eulerian frame whereas the drops dymanics equations are solved in a Largangain frame. The effects of air flow and drops on the water surface wave are neglected. A point-force approximation is employed to model the feed-back contributions by the drops to the air momentum, heat and moisture transfer.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.

2012-12-01

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change "commitment" of a range of radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible if atmospheric CO2 is left to evolve freely or is artificially restored to pre-industrial levels. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate significant surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.0-0.6 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.0-1.2 °C for RCP8.5, and the additional sea level rise is 0.1-1.0 m for RCP4.5 and 0.4-2.6 m for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions results in constant or slightly decreasing surface air temperature in all EMICs. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with additional sea level rise between 2300 and 3000 of 0.0-0.5 m for RCP4.5 and 0.2-2.4 m for RCP8.5. The largest warming and sea level rise commitment are simulated for the case with constant year-2300 CO2 emissions. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100-1000 years does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level rise exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2, and requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Results of the climate change commitment and reversibility simulations differ widely among EMICs, both in the physical and biogeochemical response. Particularly large differences are identified in the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to atmospheric CO2 and climate, highlighting the need for improved understanding and representation of land carbon cycle processes in Earth System models.

Dynamical significance of tides over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhagawati, Chirantan; Pandey, Suchita; Dandapat, Sumit; Chakraborty, Arun

2018-06-01

Tides play a significant role in the ocean surface circulations and vertical mixing thereby influencing the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as well. This, in turn, plays an important role in the global circulation when used as a lower boundary condition in a global atmospheric general circulation model. Therefore in the present study, the dynamics of tides over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated through numerical simulations using a high resolution (1/12°) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Based on statistical analysis it is observed that incorporation of explicit tidal forcing improves the model performance in simulating the basin averaged monthly surface circulation features by 64% compared to the simulation without tides. The model simulates also Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and SST realistically. The energy exchange between tidal oscillations and eddies leads to redistribution of surface kinetic energy density with a net decrease of 0.012 J m-3 in the western Bay and a net increase of 0.007 J m-3 in the eastern Bay. The tidal forcing also affects the potential energy anomaly and vertical mixing thereby leading to a fall in monthly MLD over the BoB. The mixing due to tides leads to a subsequent reduction in monthly SST and a corresponding reduction in surface heat exchange. These results from the numerical simulation using ROMS reveal that tides have a significant influence over the air-sea heat exchange which is the most important parameter for prediction of Tropical Cyclone frequency and its future variability over the BoB.

Assimilation of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Fields: Validating Ocean Analyses and Identifying Errors in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehra, A.; Nadiga, S.; Bayler, E. J.; Behringer, D.

2014-12-01

Recently available satellite sea-surface salinity (SSS) fields provide an important new global data stream for assimilation into ocean forecast systems. In this study, we present results from assimilating satellite SSS fields from NASA's Aquarius mission into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4), the oceanic component of NOAA's operational seasonal-interannual Climate Forecast System (CFS). Experiments on the sensitivity of the ocean's overall state to different relaxation time periods were run to evaluate the importance of assimilating high-frequency (daily to mesoscale) and low-frequency (seasonal) SSS variability. Aquarius SSS data (Aquarius Data Processing System (ADPS) version 3.0), mapped daily fields at 1-degree spatial resolution, were used. Four model simulations were started from the same initial ocean condition and forced with NOAA's daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) fluxes, using a relaxation technique to assimilate daily satellite sea surface temperature (SST) fields and selected SSS fields, where, except as noted, a 30-day relaxation period is used. The simulations are: (1) WOAMC, the reference case and similar to the operational setup, assimilating monthly climatological SSS from the 2009 NOAA World Ocean Atlas; (2) AQ_D, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS; (3) AQ_M, assimilating monthly Aquarius SSS; and (4) AQ_D10, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS, but using a 10-day relaxation period. The analysis focuses on the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the salinity dynamics are intense and dominated by El Niño interannual variability in the cold tongue region and by high-frequency precipitation events in the western Pacific warm pool region. To assess the robustness of results and conclusions, we also examine the results for the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Preliminary validation studies are conducted using observations, such as satellite sea-surface height (SSH) fields and in situ Argo buoy vertical profiles of temperature and salinity, to demonstrate that SSS data assimilation improves ocean state representation of the following variables: ocean heat content (0-300m), dynamic height (0-1000m), mixed-layer depth, sea surface heigh, and surface buoyancy fluxes.

Interannual variability (1979-2013) of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water mass formation: past observation reanalysis and coupled ocean-atmosphere high-resolution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somot, Samuel; Houpert, Loic; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Dubois, Clotilde; Herrmann, Marine; Waldman, Robin; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Cassou, Christophe

2015-04-01

The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore observing, simulating and understanding the long-term temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water formation is still today a very challenging task. We try here to tackle those issues thanks to (1) a thorough reanalysis of past in-situ observations (CTD, Argo, surface and deep moorings, gliders) and (2) an ERA-Interim driven simulation using a recently-developed fully coupled Regional Climate System Model (CNRM-RCSM4, Sevault et al. 2014). The multi-decadal simulation (1979-2013) is designed to be temporally and spatially homogeneous with a realistic chronology, a high resolution representation of both the regional ocean and atmosphere, specific initial conditions, a long-term spin-up and a full ocean-atmosphere coupling without constraint at the air-sea interface. The observation reanalysis allows to reconstruct interannual time series of deep water formation indicators (ocean surface variables, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, dense water volumes and characteristics of the deep water). Using the observation-based indicators and the model outputs, the 34 Winters of the period 1979-2013 are analysed in terms of weather regimes, related Winter air-sea fluxes, ocean preconditioning, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, deep water formation rate and long-term evolution of the deep water hydrology.

Regional Sea Level Changes and Projections over North Pacific Driven by Air-sea interaction and Inter-basin Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhu, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

After the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite since 1992, a series of regional sea level changes have been observed. The northwestern Pacific is among the most rapid sea-level-rise regions all over the world. The rising peak occurs around 40°N, with the value reaching 15cm in the past two decades. Moreover, when investigating the projection of global sea level changes using CMIP5 rcp simulations, we found that the northwestern Pacific remains one of the most rapid sea-level-rise regions in the 21st century. To investigate the physical dynamics of present and future sea level changes over the Pacific, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a hierarchy of climate models, including earth system model, ocean model, and atmospheric models, with different complexity. Simulation results indicate that this regional sea level change during the past two decades is mainly caused by the shift of the Kuroshio, which is largely driven by the surface wind anomaly associated with an intensified and northward shifted north Pacific sub-tropical high. Further analysis and simulations show that these changes of sub-tropical high can be primarily attributed to the regional SST forcing from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the remote SST forcings from the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. In the rcp scenario, on the other hand, two processes are crucial. Firstly, the meridional temperature SST gradient drives a northward wind anomaly across the equator, raising the sea level all over the North Pacific. Secondly, the atmospheric circulation changes around the sub-tropical Pacific further increase the sea level of the North Western Pacific. The coastal region around the Northwest Pacific is the most densely populated region around the world, therefore more attention must be paid to the sea level changes over this region, as suggested by our study.

Estimation of the barrier layer thickness in the Indian Ocean using Aquarius Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, Clifford S.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Murty, V. S. N.; Shriver, Jay F.

2014-07-01

Monthly barrier layer thickness (BLT) estimates are derived from satellite measurements using a multilinear regression model (MRM) within the Indian Ocean. Sea surface salinity (SSS) from the recently launched Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius SAC-D salinity missions are utilized to estimate the BLT. The MRM relates BLT to sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea surface height anomalies (SSHA). Three regions where the BLT variability is most rigorous are selected to evaluate the performance of the MRM for 2012; the Southeast Arabian Sea (SEAS), Bay of Bengal (BoB), and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). The MRM derived BLT estimates are compared to gridded Argo and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) BLTs. It is shown that different mechanisms are important for sustaining the BLT variability in each of the selected regions. Sensitivity tests show that SSS is the primary driver of the BLT within the MRM. Results suggest that salinity measurements obtained from Aquarius and SMOS can be useful for tracking and predicting the BLT in the Indian Ocean. Largest MRM errors occur along coastlines and near islands where land contamination skews the satellite SSS retrievals. The BLT evolution during 2012, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the current model are discussed. BLT estimations using HYCOM simulations display large errors that are related to model layer structure and the selected BLT methodology.

Global Eddy-Permitting Ocean Reanalyses and Simulations of the Period 1992 to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parent, L.; Ferry, N.; Barnier, B.; Garric, G.; Bricaud, C.; Testut, C.-E.; Le Galloudec, O.; Lellouche, J.-M.; Greiner, E.; Drevillon, M.; Remy, E.; Moulines, J.-M.; Guinehut, S.; Cabanes, C.

2013-09-01

We present GLORYS2V1 global ocean and sea-ice eddy permitting reanalysis over the altimetric era (1993- 2009). This reanalysis is based on an ocean and sea-ice general circulation model at 1⁄4° horizontal resolution assimilating sea surface temperature, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity and along-track sea level anomaly observations. The reanalysis has been produced along with a reference simulation called MJM95 which allows evaluating the benefits of the data assimilation. In the introduction, we briefly describe the GLORYS2V1 reanalysis system. In sections 2, 3 and 4, the reanalysis skill is presented. Data assimilation diagnostics reveal that the reanalysis is stable all along the time period, with however an improved skill when Argo observation network establishes. GLORYS2V1 captures well climate signals and trends and describes meso-scale variability in a realistic manner.

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

Monte Carlo simulation of wave sensing with a short pulse radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, D. M.; Davisson, L. D.; Kutz, R. L.

1977-01-01

A Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the ocean wave sensing potential of a radar which scatters short pulses at small off-nadir angles. In the simulation, realizations of a random surface are created commensurate with an assigned probability density and power spectrum. Then the signal scattered back to the radar is computed for each realization using a physical optics analysis which takes wavefront curvature and finite radar-to-surface distance into account. In the case of a Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum and a normally distributed surface, reasonable assumptions for a fully developed sea, it has been found that the cumulative distribution of time intervals between peaks in the scattered power provides a measure of surface roughness. This observation is supported by experiments.

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

2016-01-01

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

Simulating Dust Regional Impact on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2017-04-01

Dust is one of the most abundant aerosols, however, currently only a few regional climate downscalings account for dust. This study focuses on the Middle East and the Red Sea regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. The Red Sea is located between North Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which are first and third largest source regions of dust, respectively. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high dust optical depths in the region, especially over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. Modeled atmospheric radiative forcing at the surface, top of the atmosphere and absorption in the atmospheric column indicate that dust significantly perturbs radiative balance. Top of the atmosphere modeled forcing is validated against independently derived GERB satellite product. Due to strong radiative forcing at the sea surface (daily mean forcing during summer reaches -32 Wm-2 and 10 Wm-2 in SW and LW, respectively), using uncoupled ocean model with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions would result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea thermal regime and circulation. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix, and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.3-0.5 K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in the formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in future modeling studies.

Study on wind wave variability by inhomogeneous currents in the closed seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakhanov, Victor V.; Bogatov, Nikolai A.; Ermoshkin, Aleksei V.; Ivanov, Andrei Yu.; Kemarskaya, Olga N.; Titov, Victor I.

2012-09-01

Complex experiments were performed in the north-eastern part of the Black Sea and in the south-eastern part of the White Sea to study variability of the current fields and other characteristics of the sea, wind waves, and parameters of the near-surface atmospheric layer. Measurements were carried out from the onboard of the scientific research vessels by optical, radar and acoustic sensors. The heterogeneity of bottom topography in Black Sea had quasi-one-dimensional character. The case of the two-dimensionally heterogeneous relief of the bottom was investigated in the White Sea. The peculiarity of these experiments was simultaneous measurements from onboard of vessel synchronously with acquisitions of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the Envisat and TerraSAR-X satellites. We have detected for the case of the quasi-one-dimensionally heterogeneous current a difference between the sea surface roughness above the shelf zone and the roughness at the deep bottom. We found that the inhomogeneities of the bottom topography can manifest as a change not only in the amplitude of different characteristics of surface wave and atmospheric near-water layer, but also in their frequency spectrum. In White Sea the special features of the flow of the powerful tidal current (up to 1 m/s) around the secluded underwater elevation and the spatial structure of surface anomalies in the field of these two-dimensional-heterogeneous currents are analyzed. The numerical simulation of the wind wave transformation in the field of two-dimensional- heterogeneous flows is carried out. The qualitative agreement of the calculation results with the experimental data is shown.

Sensitivity study of a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, David M.; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Manak, Davinder K.; Oberhuber, Josef M.

1993-02-01

A numerical simulation of the seasonal sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas is presented. The sea ice model is extracted from Oberhuber's (1990) coupled sea ice-mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model and is written in spherical coordinates. The advantage of such a model over previous sea ice models is that it can be easily coupled to either global atmospheric or ocean general circulation models written in spherical coordinates. In this model, the thermodynamics are a modification of that of Parkinson and Washington (1979), while the dynamics use the full Hibler (1979) viscous-plastic rheology. Monthly thermodynamic and dynamic forcing fields for the atmosphere and ocean are specified. The simulations of the seasonal cycle of ice thickness, compactness, and velocity, for a control set of parameters, compare favorably with the known seasonal characteristics of these fields. A sensitivity study of the control simulation of the seasonal sea ice cover is presented. The sensitivity runs are carried out under three different themes, namely, numerical conditions, parameter values, and physical processes. This last theme refers to experiments in which physical processes are either newly added or completely removed from the model. Approximately 80 sensitivity runs have been performed in which a change from the control run environment has been implemented. Comparisons have been made between the control run and a particular sensitivity run based on time series of the seasonal cycle of the domain-averaged ice thickness, compactness, areal coverage, and kinetic energy. In addition, spatially varying fields of ice thickness, compactness, velocity, and surface temperature for each season are presented for selected experiments. A brief description and discussion of the more interesting experiments are presented. The simulation of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice cover is shown to be robust.

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

2017-09-01

Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

LLWBCS changes through surface mesoscale activity and baroclinic tides in the Solomon Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourdeau, L.; Djath, B.; Ganachaud, A. S.; Tchilibou, M. L.; Verron, J. A.; Jouanno, J.

2016-02-01

In the south west Pacific, the Solomon Sea is on the pathway of the Low Latitudes Western Boundary Currents that connect the subtropics to the equator. Changes in their strengths, or in their water mass properties may have implication for ENSO and its low frequency modulation. During their transit in the Solomon Sea, the salinity maximum at thermocline level, characteristic of the South Pacific Tropical Waters (SPTW), is largely eroded. Different mechanisms could explain such salt erosion whose current/bathymetry interaction, internal tides, eddy activity. The Solomon Sea is an area of high level of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), especially in the surface layers, and its complex bathymetry is favourable for generation and dissipation of internal tides. Based on high resolution modelling, glider, and altimetric data mesoscale eddies observed at the surface are analysed in their 4D aspects. Their role on water mass transformation is explored. These eddies may affect the surface layers (σ<23.3) and the upper thermocline waters (23.3< σ <24.3), but they cannot explained the erosion of the salinity maximum below. Simulations with and without explicit tides provide a description of baroclinic tides in the Solomon Sea. Their role on water mixing is evaluated, especially for the SPTW.

Using sea surface temperatures to improve performance of single dynamical downscaling model in flood simulation under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.

2017-12-01

There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.

Performance of ICTP's RegCM4 in Simulating the Rainfall Characteristics over the CORDEX-SEA Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neng Liew, Ju; Tangang, Fredolin; Tieh Ngai, Sheau; Chung, Jing Xiang; Narisma, Gemma; Cruz, Faye Abigail; Phan Tan, Van; Thanh, Ngo-Duc; Santisirisomboon, Jerasron; Milindalekha, Jaruthat; Singhruck, Patama; Gunawan, Dodo; Satyaningsih, Ratna; Aldrian, Edvin

2015-04-01

The performance of the RegCM4 in simulating rainfall variations over the Southeast Asia regions was examined. Different combinations of six deep convective parameterization schemes, namely i) Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schubert closure assumption, ii) Grell scheme with Fritch-Chappel closure assumption, iii) Emanuel MIT scheme, iv) mixed scheme with Emanuel MIT scheme over the Ocean and the Grell scheme over the land, v) mixed scheme with Grell scheme over the land and Emanuel MIT scheme over the ocean and (vi) Kuo scheme, and three ocean flux treatments were tested. In order to account for uncertainties among the observation products, four different gridded rainfall products were used for comparison. The simulated climate is generally drier over the equatorial regions and slightly wetter over the mainland Indo-China compare to the observation. However, simulation with MIT cumulus scheme used over the land area consistently produces large amplitude of positive rainfall biases, although it simulates more realistic annual rainfall variations. The simulations are found less sensitive to treatment of ocean fluxes. Although the simulations produced the rainfall climatology well, all of them simulated much stronger interannual variability compare to that of the observed. Nevertheless, the time evolution of the inter-annual variations was well reproduced particularly over the eastern part of maritime continent. Over the mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), unrealistic rainfall anomalies processes were simulated. The lacking of summer season air-sea interaction results in strong oceanic forcings over the regions, leading to positive rainfall anomalies during years with warm ocean temperature anomalies. This incurs much stronger atmospheric forcings on the land surface processes compare to that of the observed. A score ranking system was designed to rank the simulations according to their performance in reproducing different aspects of rainfall characteristics. The result suggests that the simulation with Emanuel MIT convective scheme and BATs land surface scheme produces better collective performance compare to the rest of the simulations.

Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

momentum fluxes. Hurricane simulations using the Navy Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System are also sensitive to the surface flux and sea... Atmospheric Research NWP Numerical Weather Prediction NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PTH Pressure, Temperature, relative Humidity RE87... Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for organizing the CBLAST field program and collecting the data used for this study. xx THIS PAGE

Subsurface Scattered Photons: Friend or Foe? Improving visible light laser altimeter elevation estimates, and measuring surface properties using subsurface scattered photons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greeley, A.; Kurtz, N. T.; Neumann, T.; Cook, W. B.; Markus, T.

2016-12-01

Photon counting laser altimeters such as MABEL (Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar) - a single photon counting simulator for ATLAS (Advanced Topographical Laser Altimeter System) - use individual photons with visible wavelengths to measure their range to target surfaces. ATLAS, the sole instrument on NASA's upcoming ICESat-2 mission, will provide scientists a view of Earth's ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice with unprecedented detail. Precise calibration of these instruments is needed to understand rapidly changing parameters such as sea ice freeboard, and to measure optical properties of surfaces like snow covered ice sheets using subsurface scattered photons. Photons that travel through snow, ice, or water before scattering back to an altimeter receiving system travel farther than photons taking the shortest path between the observatory and the target of interest. These delayed photons produce a negative elevation bias relative to photons scattered directly off these surfaces. We use laboratory measurements of snow surfaces using a flight-tested laser altimeter (MABEL), and Monte Carlo simulations of backscattered photons from snow to estimate elevation biases from subsurface scattered photons. We also use these techniques to demonstrate the ability to retrieve snow surface properties like snow grain size.

Whitecaps, sea-salt aerosols, and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anguelova, Magdalena Dimitrova

Oceanic whitecaps are the major source of sea-salt aerosols. Because these aerosols are dominant in remote marine air, they control the radiative properties of the clean background atmosphere by scattering sunlight, changing cloud properties and lifetime, and providing media for chemical reactions. Including sea-salt effects in climate models improves predictions, but simulating their generation is first necessary. To make the sea-salt generation function currently used in climate models more relevant for aerosol investigations, this study proposes two modifications. First, the conventional relation between whitecap coverage, W, and the 10-meter wind speed, U10, used in typical generation functions is expanded to include additional factors that affect whitecaps and sea-salt aerosol formation. Second, the sea-salt generation function is extended to smaller sizes; sea-salt aerosol with initial radii from 0.4 to 20 mum can now be modeled. To achieve these goals, this thesis develops a new method for estimating whitecap coverage on a global scale using satellite measurements of the brightness temperature of the ocean surface. Whitecap coverage evaluated with this method incorporates the effects of atmospheric stability, sea-surface temperature, salinity, wind fetch, wind duration, and the amount of surface-active material. Assimilating satellite-derived values for whitecap coverage in the sea-salt generation function incorporates the effects of all environmental factors on sea-salt production and predicts realistic sea-salt aerosol loadings into the atmosphere. An extensive database of whitecap coverage and sea-salt aerosol fluxes has been compiled with the new method and is used to investigate their spatial and temporal characteristics. The composite effect of all environmental factors suggests a more uniform latitudinal distribution of whitecaps and sea-salt aerosols than that predicted from wind speed alone. The effect of sea-surface temperature, TS, is parameterized for the first time using regression analysis. The resulting parameterization W( U10, TS) is a better predictor of whitecap coverage than the conventional W(U 10) relation. This thesis also considers the contribution of oceanic whitecaps to ocean albedo and CO2 transfer and evaluates the direct effect of sea-salt aerosols on climate, the sea-salt contribution to CCN formation, and the role of sea-salt aerosols in atmospheric chemistry.

The direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke on a severe thunderstorm event in the Baltic Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, V.; Männik, A.

2015-03-01

On August 8, 2010, a severe derecho type thunderstorm in the Baltic Sea region coincided with smoke from wildfires in Russia. Remarkable smoke aerosol concentrations, with a maximum aerosol optical depth of more than 2 at 550 nm, were observed near the thunderstorm. The impact of the wildfire smoke on the thunderstorm through direct radiative effects was investigated using the Hirlam Aladin Research for Mesoscale Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Euromed (HARMONIE) model. HARMONIE was successfully able to resolve the dynamics of the thunderstorm, and simulations that considered the influence of the smoke-related aerosols were compared to simulation without aerosols. As simulated by the HARMONIE model, the smoke reduced the shortwave radiation flux at the surface by as much as 300 W/m2 and decreased the near-surface temperature by as much as 3 °C in the vicinity of the thunderstorm and respectively 100 W/m2 and 1 °C in the thunderstorm region. Atmospheric instability decreased through the direct radiative effect of aerosols, and several dynamic features of the simulated thunderstorm appeared slightly weaker.

Hydrogeology of, simulation of groundwater flow in, and potential effects of sea-level rise on the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the vicinity of Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiore, Alex R.; Voronin, Lois M.; Wieben, Christine M.

2018-03-19

The Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge encompasses more than 47,000 acres of New Jersey coastal habitats, including salt marshes, freshwater wetlands, tidal wetlands, barrier beaches, woodlands, and swamps. The refuge is along the Atlantic Flyway and provides breeding habitat for fish, migratory birds, and other wildlife species. The refuge area may be threatened by global climate change, including sea-level rise (SLR).The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system underlies the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. Groundwater is an important source of freshwater flow into the refuge, but information about the interaction of surface water and groundwater in the refuge area and the potential effects of SLR on the underlying aquifer system is limited. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), conducted a hydrologic assessment of the refuge in New Jersey and developed a groundwater flow model to improve understanding of the geohydrology of the refuge area and to serve as a tool to evaluate changes in groundwater-level altitudes that may result from a rise in sea level.Groundwater flow simulations completed for this study include a calibrated baseline simulation that represents 2005–15 hydraulic conditions and three SLR scenarios―20, 40, and 60 centimeters (cm) (0.656, 1.312, and 1.968 feet, respectively). Results of the three SLR simulations indicate that the water table in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the refuge area will rise, resulting in increased discharge of fresh groundwater to freshwater wetlands and streams. As sea level rises, simulated groundwater discharge to the salt marsh, bay, and ocean is projected to decrease. Flow from the salt marsh, bay, and ocean to the overlying surface water is projected to increase as sea level rises.The simulated movement of the freshwater-seawater interface as sea level rises depends on the hydraulic-head gradient. In the center of the Forsythe model area, topographic relief is 23 feet (ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is 0.0033. In the center of the Forsythe model area, the simulated interface moved inland about 600 ft and downward about 15 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 as a result of a SLR of 60 cm. In the southern part of the Forsythe model area, the topography is flatter (relief of 8 ft) and the hydraulic-head gradient is smaller (0.001). In the southern part of the Forsythe model study area, the simulated interface in this area is projected to move inland about 200 ft from the baseline simulation to scenario 3 and does not move downward.

NASA/French Satellite Data Reveal New Details of Tsunami

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-01-12

Displayed in blue color is the height of sea surface (shown in blue) measured by the Jason satellite two hours after the initial magnitude 9 earthquake hit the region (shown in red) southwest of Sumatra on December 26, 2004. The data were taken by a radar altimeter onboard the satellite along a track traversing the Indian Ocean when the tsunami waves had just filled the entire Bay of Bengal (see the model simulation inset image). The data shown are the changes of sea surface height from previous observations made along the same track 20-30 days before the earthquake, reflecting the signals of the tsunami waves. The maximum height of the leading wave crest was about 50 cm (or 1.6 ft), followed by a trough of sea surface depression of 40 cm. The directions of wave propagation along the satellite track are shown by the blue arrows. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA07219

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

On the brine drainage and algal uptake controls of the nutrient supply to the sea ice interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vancoppenolle, M.; Goosse, H.; de Montety, A.; Fichefet, T.; Tison, J.-L.

2009-04-01

Sea ice ecosystems are important components of the biogeochemical cycles (including carbon) and hence have a potential impact on climate. They are characterized by large stocks of micro-algae. Those algae (mostly diatoms) live in liquid inclusions of saline brine, which are encased within the solid ice matrix and require sustained nutrient supply to grow. In this study, we investigate the interactions between nutrients, brine motion and algal growth, using a one-dimensional (1D) sea ice model. The model includes (i) a classical formulation for snow and ice thermodynamics with explicit, reformulated brine physics and (ii) an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one single nutrient, namely dissolved silica (DSi), which stocks are reduced by a prescribed primary production. DSi is considered as a passive tracer dissolved within brine following fluid motion. The brine flow regime (advective, diffusive or turbulent) is computed as a function of environmental ice conditions. In winter, a Rayleigh number proposed by Notz and Worster (2008) is used to differentiate diffusion and convection. Ice salinity and DSi concentrations within the ice are solutions of 1D advection-diffusion equations over the variable volume brine network domain. The model is configured for a typical year of seasonal Weddell Sea ice. The simulated vertical salinity and tracer profiles as well as ice-ocean salt fluxes realistically agree with observations. Complex bio-physical interactions are simulated by the model. Analysis highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice (gravity drainage), mixing highly saline, nutrient-depleted brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. Hence, gravity drainage rejects salt to the ocean and provides nutrients to the ice interior. In turn, primary production and brine convection act synergetically to form a nutrient pump, which enhances the net ocean-to-ice DSi flux by 20-115%, compared to an abiotic situation. The other important simulated processes are winter and spring surface flooding of seawater which supplies nutrients near the ice surface, and melt water percolation which - if present in reality - would tend to flush nutrients back to the ocean in summer. The physical background for sea ice tracers developed here is general and could be used to simulate other sea ice tracers (e.g., dissolved organic matter, isotopes, gases, radio-nuclides, ...), constituting an improved modelling strategy for sea ice brine and ecosystem dynamics.

Impact of atmospheric forcing on heat content variability in the sub-surface layer in the Japan/East Sea, 1948-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry; Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay

2016-04-01

Based on numerical simulations the study investigates impact of atmospheric forcing on heat content variability of the sub-surface layer in Japan/East Sea (JES), 1948-2009. We developed a model configuration based on a INMOM model and atmospheric forcing extracted from the CORE phase II experiment dataset 1948-2009, which enables to assess impact of only atmospheric forcing on heat content variability of the sub-surface layer of the JES. An analysis of kinetic energy (KE) and total heat content (THC) in the JES obtained from our numerical simulations showed that the simulated circulation of the JES is being quasi-steady state. It was found that the year-mean KE variations obtained from our numerical simulations are similar those extracted from the SODA reanalysis. Comparison of the simulated THC and that extracted from the SODA reanalysis showed significant consistence between them. An analysis of numerical simulations showed that the simulated circulation structure is very similar that obtained from the PALACE floats in the intermediate and abyssal layers in the JES. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis we studied spatial-temporal variability of the heat content of the sub-surface layer in the JES. Based on comparison of the simulated heat content variations with those obtained from natural observations an assessment of the atmospheric forcing impact on the heat content variability was obtained. Using singular value decomposition analysis we considered relationships between the heat content variability and wind stress curl as well as sensible heat flux in winter. It was established the major role of sensible heat flux in decadal variability of the heat content of the sub-surface layer in the JES. The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant N 14-05-00255) and the Council on the Russian Federation President Grants (grant N MK-3241.2015.5)

Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part I. The north Pacific ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, M.A.

Atmosphere-ocean modeling experiments are used to investigate the formation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean during fall and winter of the El Nino year. Experiments in which the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) surface fields are used to force a mixed-layer ocean model in the North Pacific (no air-sea feedback) are compared to simulations in which the CCM and North Pacific Ocean model are coupled. Anomalies in the atmosphere and the North Pacific Ocean during El Nino are obtained from the difference between simulations with and without prescribed warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific.more » In both the forced and coupled experiments, the anomaly pattern resembles a composite of the actual SST anomaly field during El Nino: warm SSTs develop along the coast of North America and cold SSTs form in the central Pacific. In the coupled simulations, air-sea interaction results in a 25% to 50% reduction in the magnitude of the SST and mixed-layer depth anomalies, resulting in more realistic SST fields. Coupling also decreases the SST anomaly variance; as a result, the anomaly centers remain statistically significant even though the magnitude of the anomalies is reduced. Three additional sensitivity studies indicate that air-sea feedback and entrainment act to damp SST anomalies while Ekman pumping has a negligible effect on mixed-layer depth and SST anomalies in midatitudes.« less

Comprehensive analysis of the origin of giant jellyfish near Qinhuangdao in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lingjuan; Wu, Xiaofen; Bai, Tao

2017-09-01

A massive bloom of the giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai occurred in waters offQinhuangdao, a port city in Hebei Province, in July 2013. However, jellyfish larvae were not found in this location during the previous winter and spring. To determine the possible origin of the giant jellyfish medusa in the Bohai Sea, we developed a backward particle-tracking model and a series of numerical simulations were conducted by using the hydrodynamic, three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) results. The simulated results showed that passive particles, representing jellyfish medusae, released in surface waters at different dates during the summer had consistent trajectories. Particles released at the sea surface on August 1 and 15 could be traced back to the center of the Bohai Sea and to waters between Feiyan Shoal and the new Huanghe (Yellow) River estuary. Particles released on July 1 and 15 could also be traced back to the center of the Bohai Sea and to waters between Feiyan Shoal and only to Zhuangxi tide station. However, none of the particles released in the middle and bottom water layers could be traced back to those areas. Based on the results of the numerical simulations, the distribution characteristics of seafloor sediments, and observational data for giant jellyfish in the region, we suggest that waters between Feiyan Shoal and the new Huanghe River estuary are the likely origin of giant jellyfish observed near Qinhuangdao in summer.

The importance of modeling nonhydrostatic processes for dense water reproduction in the Southern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, Debora; McKiver, William J.; Ferrarin, Christian; Umgiesser, Georg

2018-05-01

Dense water (DW) formation commonly occurs in the shallow Northern Adriatic Sea during winter outbreaks, when there is a combination of the cooling of surface waters by the winds and high salinity as a result of reduced river inputs. These DWs subsequently propagate southwards over a period of weeks/months, eventually arriving in the Southern Adriatic Sea. The investigation is based on a new nonhydrostatic (NH) formulation of the 3D finite element model SHYFEM that is validated for a number of theoretical test cases. Subsequently this model is used to simulate, through high-resolution numerical simulations, an extreme DW event that occurred in the Adriatic Sea in 2012. We perform both hydrostatic (HY) and NH simulations in order to explicitly see the impact of NH processes on the DW dynamics. The modeled results are compared to observations collected in the field campaign of March-April 2012 in the Southern Adriatic Sea. The NH run correctly reproduces the across isobath bottom-trapped gravity current characterizing the canyon DW pathways. It also more accurately captures the frequency and intensity of dense water cascading pulsing events, as the inclusion of NH processes produces stronger currents with different DW mixing characteristics. Finally, the NH run simulates internal gravity waves (IGW), generated during the cascading at the edge of the canyon, which propagate downslope. This IGW activity is not captured in the HY case.

Sea Ice Retreat and its Impact on the Intensity of Open-Ocean Convection in the Greenland and Iceland Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Våge, K.; Pickart, R. S.; Renfrew, I.

2016-12-01

The air-sea transfer of heat and freshwater plays a critical role in the global climate system. This is particularly true for the Greenland and Iceland Seas, where these fluxes drive ocean convection that contributes to Denmark Strait Overflow Water, the densest component of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This buoyancy transfer is most pronounced during the winter downstream of the ice edge, where the cold and dry Arctic air first comes in contact with the relatively warm ocean surface. Here we show that the wintertime retreat of sea ice in the region, combined with different rates of warming for the atmosphere and sea surface of the Greenland and Iceland Seas, has resulted in statistically significant reductions of approximately 20% in the magnitude of the winter air-sea heat fluxes since 1979. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that modes of climate variability other than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are required to fully characterize the regional air-sea interaction in this region. Mixed-layer model simulations imply that a continued decrease in atmospheric forcing will exceed a threshold for the Greenland Sea whereby convection will become depth limited, reducing the ventilation of mid-depth waters in the Nordic Seas. In the Iceland Sea, further reductions have the potential to decrease the supply of the densest overflow waters to the AMOC.

Wind Stress Forcing of the North Sea "Pole Tide"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OConnor, William P.; Chao, Benjamin Fong; Zheng, Dawei; Au, Andrew Y.

1998-01-01

We conducted numerical simulations of the wind-forcing of the sea level variations in the North Sea using a barotropic ocean model with realistic geography, bathymetry, and boundary conditions, to examine the forcing of the 14-month "pole tide" which is known to be strong along the Denmark- Netherlands coast. The simulation input is the monthly-mean surface wind stress field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis for the 40-year period 1958-1997. The output sea level response was then compared with 10 coastal tide gauge records from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). Besides the strong seasonal variations, several prominent quasi-periodicities exist at around 7 years, 3 years, 14 months, 9 months, and 6.5 months. Correlation and spectral analyses show remarkable agreement between the model output and the observations, particularly in the 14-month, or Chandler period band. The latter indicates that the enhanced pole tide found in the North Sea along the Denmark-Netherlands coast is actually the coastal setup response to wind stress forcing with a periodicity of 14 months. We find no need to invoke a geophysical explanation involving resonance-enhancement of pole tide in the North Sea to explain the observations.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Sriver, Ryan L.

2018-01-01

High-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC-climate studies. Active air-sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC-ocean interactions, which can influence TC-climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high-resolution, multidecadal, global-scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (˜0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large-scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air-sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high-resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC-climate applications.

Forecasting decadal changes in sea surface temperatures and coral bleaching within a Caribbean coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Angang; Reidenbach, Matthew A.

2014-09-01

Elevated sea surface temperature (SST) caused by global warming is one of the major threats to coral reefs. While increased SST has been shown to negatively affect the health of coral reefs by increasing rates of coral bleaching, how changes to atmospheric heating impact SST distributions, modified by local flow environments, has been less understood. This study aimed to simulate future water flow patterns and water surface heating in response to increased air temperature within a coral reef system in Bocas del Toro, Panama, located within the Caribbean Sea. Water flow and SST were modeled using the Delft3D-FLOWcomputer simulation package. Locally measured physical parameters, including bathymetry, astronomic tidal forcing, and coral habitat distribution were input into the model and water flow, and SST was simulated over a four-month period under present day, as well as projected warming scenarios in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Changes in SST, and hence the thermal stress to corals, were quantified by degree heating weeks. Results showed that present-day reported bleaching sites were consistent with localized regions of continuous high SST. Regions with highest SST were located within shallow coastal sites adjacent to the mainland or within the interior of the bay, and characterized by low currents with high water retention times. Under projected increases in SSTs, shallow reef areas in low flow regions were found to be hot spots for future bleaching.

Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

Discrete-Element bonded-particle Sea Ice model DESIgn, version 1.3a - model description and implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Agnieszka

2016-04-01

This paper presents theoretical foundations, numerical implementation and examples of application of the two-dimensional Discrete-Element bonded-particle Sea Ice model - DESIgn. In the model, sea ice is represented as an assemblage of objects of two types: disk-shaped "grains" and semi-elastic bonds connecting them. Grains move on the sea surface under the influence of forces from the atmosphere and the ocean, as well as interactions with surrounding grains through direct contact (Hertzian contact mechanics) and/or through bonds. The model has an experimental option of taking into account quasi-three-dimensional effects related to the space- and time-varying curvature of the sea surface, thus enabling simulation of ice breaking due to stresses resulting from bending moments associated with surface waves. Examples of the model's application to simple sea ice deformation and breaking problems are presented, with an analysis of the influence of the basic model parameters ("microscopic" properties of grains and bonds) on the large-scale response of the modeled material. The model is written as a toolbox suitable for usage with the open-source numerical library LIGGGHTS. The code, together with full technical documentation and example input files, is freely available with this paper and on the Internet.

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.; Stevens, D. E.

1984-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

High temperature reaction between sea salt deposit and (U,Zr)O2 simulated corium debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takano, Masahide; Nishi, Tsuyoshi

2013-11-01

In order to clarify the possible impacts of seawater injection on the chemical and physical state of the corium debris formed in the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plants, the high temperature reaction between sea salt deposit and (U,Zr)O2 simulated corium debris (sim-debris) was examined in the temperature range from 1088 to 1668 K. A dense layer of calcium and sodium uranate formed on the surface of a sim-debris pellet at 1275 K under airflow, with the thickness of over 50 μm. When the oxygen partial pressure is low, calcium is likely to dissolve into the cubic sim-debris phase to form solid solution (Ca,U,Zr)O2+x. The diffusion depth was 5-6 μm from the surface, subjected to 1275 K for 12 h. The crystalline MgO remains affixed on the surface as the main residue of salt components. A part of it can also dissolve into the sim-debris.

Western boundary upwelling dynamics off Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vic, Clément; Capet, Xavier; Roullet, Guillaume; Carton, Xavier

2017-05-01

Despite its climatic and ecosystemic significance, the coastal upwelling that takes place off Oman is not well understood. A primitive-equation, regional model forced by climatological wind stress is used to investigate its dynamics and to compare it with the better-known Eastern Boundary Upwellings (EBUs). The solution compares favorably with existing observations, simulating well the seasonal cycles of thermal structure, surface circulation (mean and turbulent), and sea-surface temperature (SST). There is a 1.5-month lag between the maximum of the upwelling-favorable wind-stress-curl forcing and the oceanic response (minima in sea-surface height and SST), which we attribute to onshore-propagating Rossby waves. A southwestward-flowing undercurrent (opposite to the direction of the near-surface flow) is also simulated with a core depth of 1000 m, much deeper than found in EBUs (150-200 m). An EKE budget reveals that, in contrast to EBUs, the upwelling jet is more prone to barotropic than baroclinic instability and the contribution of locally-generated instabilities to EKE is higher by an order of magnitude. Advection and redistribution of EKE by standing mesoscale features also play a significant role in EKE budget.

Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysis of Ocean Forecast Ensembles.

PubMed

Höllt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D; Hadwiger, Markus

2014-08-01

We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea.

Doppler Navigation System with a Non-Stabilized Antenna as a Sea-Surface Wind Sensor.

PubMed

Nekrasov, Alexey; Khachaturian, Alena; Veremyev, Vladimir; Bogachev, Mikhail

2017-06-09

We propose a concept of the utilization of an aircraft Doppler Navigation System (DNS) as a sea-surface wind sensor complementary to its normal functionality. The DNS with an antenna, which is non-stabilized physically to the local horizontal with x -configured beams, is considered. We consider the wind measurements by the DNS configured in the multi-beam scatterometer mode for a rectilinear flight scenario. The system feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed wind algorithm retrieval are supported by computer simulations. Finally, the associated limitations of the proposed approach are considered.

The color metamerism evaluation of paint based on ocean spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhongwei; Huang, Hao; Liao, Ningfang

2018-03-01

The surface color of the sea is affected by many factors and will be different the due to the material difference in the sea. And the difference will be reflected in the ocean spectrum. If the paint materials of a ship can simulate the ocean surface color and the ocean spectrum at the same time. This will minimize the metamerism. In this paper, the method of metamerism is used to evaluate paint based on ocean spectrum, so that the color of the material affected by the light source will be reflected in the metamerism index.

Doppler Navigation System with a Non-Stabilized Antenna as a Sea-Surface Wind Sensor

PubMed Central

Nekrasov, Alexey; Khachaturian, Alena; Veremyev, Vladimir; Bogachev, Mikhail

2017-01-01

We propose a concept of the utilization of an aircraft Doppler Navigation System (DNS) as a sea-surface wind sensor complementary to its normal functionality. The DNS with an antenna, which is non-stabilized physically to the local horizontal with x-configured beams, is considered. We consider the wind measurements by the DNS configured in the multi-beam scatterometer mode for a rectilinear flight scenario. The system feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed wind algorithm retrieval are supported by computer simulations. Finally, the associated limitations of the proposed approach are considered. PMID:28598374

The relation between AMOC, gyre circulation, and meridional heat transports in the North Atlantic in model simulations of the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Moreno-Chamarro, E.; Lohmann, K.; Zanchettin, D.

2016-02-01

While it is clear that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for meridional heat transfer from the South Atlantic and the tropics to the North Atlantic, the majority of the heat transport in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic seas is carried by the gyre system. However, the detailed mechanisms determining the interaction between and the temporal modulation of the components of the northward heat transport system are not clear. Long-term climate records and model simulations can help to identify important processes and to provide background for the changes that are presently observed. Multi-centennial proxy records from the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas indicate, for example, an out-of-phase behavior of sea surface temperature and gyre circulation between the two regions with consequences for regional climate. Paleoceanographic evidence from Fram Strait shows a pronounced modulation of heat transfer to the Arctic by the Atlantic Water layer during the last 2000 years and reconstructions from the Subpolar North Atlantic suggest a role of ocean circulation in the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Here we explore a small ensemble of last millennium simulations, carried out with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, and analyze mechanisms connecting the AMOC and gyre circulation and their relation to external forcing. Our results support the important role of the Subpolar Gyre strength and the related meridional mass and temperature fluxes. We find that the modulation of the northward heat transport into the Nordic Seas and the Arctic has pronounced impact on sea-ice distribution, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and the surface climate in Scandinavia and Western Europe.

The relation between AMOC, gyre circulation, and meridional heat transports in the North Atlantic in model simulations of the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, Johann; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Lohmann, Katja

2016-04-01

While it is clear that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for meridional heat transfer from the South Atlantic and the tropics to the North Atlantic, the majority of the heat transport in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic seas is carried by the gyre system. However, the detailed mechanisms determining the interaction between and the temporal modulation of the components of the northward heat transport system are not clear. Long-term climate records and model simulations can help to identify important processes and to provide background for the changes that are presently observed. Multi-centennial proxy records from the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas indicate, for example, an out-of-phase behavior of sea surface temperature and gyre circulation between the two regions with consequences for regional climate. Paleoceanographic evidence from Fram Strait shows a pronounced modulation of heat transfer to the Arctic by the Atlantic Water layer during the last 2000 years and reconstructions from the Subpolar North Atlantic suggest a role of ocean circulation in the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Here we explore a small ensemble of last millennium simulations, carried out with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, and analyze mechanisms connecting the AMOC and gyre circulation and their relation to external forcing. Our results support the important role of the Subpolar Gyre strength and the related meridional mass and temperature fluxes. We find that the modulation of the northward heat transport into the Nordic Seas and the Arctic has pronounced impact on sea-ice distribution, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and the surface climate in Scandinavia and Western Europe.

Idealized modeling of convective organization with changing sea surface temperatures using multiple equilibria in weak temperature gradient simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sentić, Stipo; Sessions, Sharon L.

2017-06-01

The weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation is a method of parameterizing the influences of the large scale on local convection in limited domain simulations. WTG simulations exhibit multiple equilibria in precipitation; depending on the initial moisture content, simulations can precipitate or remain dry for otherwise identical boundary conditions. We use a hypothesized analogy between multiple equilibria in precipitation in WTG simulations, and dry and moist regions of organized convection to study tropical convective organization. We find that the range of wind speeds that support multiple equilibria depends on sea surface temperature (SST). Compared to the present SST, low SSTs support a narrower range of multiple equilibria at higher wind speeds. In contrast, high SSTs exhibit a narrower range of multiple equilibria at low wind speeds. This suggests that at high SSTs, organized convection might occur with lower surface forcing. To characterize convection at different SSTs, we analyze the change in relationships between precipitation rate, atmospheric stability, moisture content, and the large-scale transport of moist entropy and moisture with increasing SSTs. We find an increase in large-scale export of moisture and moist entropy from dry simulations with increasing SST, which is consistent with a strengthening of the up-gradient transport of moisture from dry regions to moist regions in organized convection. Furthermore, the changes in diagnostic relationships with SST are consistent with more intense convection in precipitating regions of organized convection for higher SSTs.

Re-examining the roles of surface heat flux and latent heat release in a "hurricane-like" polar low over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolstad, Erik W.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Zahn, Matthias

2016-07-01

Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that occur at high latitudes in both hemispheres during winter. Their sometimes evidently convective nature, fueled by strong surface fluxes and with cloud-free centers, have led to some polar lows being referred to as "arctic hurricanes." Idealized studies have shown that intensification by hurricane development mechanisms is theoretically possible in polar winter atmospheres, but the lack of observations and realistic simulations of actual polar lows have made it difficult to ascertain if this occurs in reality. Here the roles of surface heat fluxes and latent heat release in the development of a Barents Sea polar low, which in its cloud structures showed some similarities to hurricanes, are studied with an ensemble of sensitivity experiments, where latent heating and/or surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat were switched off before the polar low peaked in intensity. To ensure that the polar lows in the sensitivity runs did not track too far away from the actual environmental conditions, a technique known as spectral nudging was applied. This was shown to be crucial for enabling comparisons between the different model runs. The results presented here show that (1) no intensification occurred during the mature, postbaroclinic stage of the simulated polar low; (2) surface heat fluxes, i.e., air-sea interaction, were crucial processes both in order to attain the polar low's peak intensity during the baroclinic stage and to maintain its strength in the mature stage; and (3) latent heat release played a less important role than surface fluxes in both stages.

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2012-01-01

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Xie, Jun; Ge, Qian

2017-02-01

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7-10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

Connectivity among straits of the northwest Pacific marginal seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Yang-Ki; Seo, Gwang-Ho; Choi, Byoung-Ju; Kim, Sangil; Kim, Young-Gyu; Youn, Yong-Hoon; Dever, Edward P.

2009-06-01

The connectivity among straits of the northwest Pacific marginal seas is investigated with a primitive-equation ocean circulation model simulated for 10 years from 1994 to 2003. Over the simulation interval the temporal and spatial means and variations of the model sea surface temperature are comparable to those of the satellite sea surface temperature. The model transport through the straits shows good agreement with the available observations and a high seasonality in the Taiwan Strait, the Korea Strait, and the Soya Strait but relatively low seasonality in the Tsugaru Strait. The Kuroshio and Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) are two sources of water flowing through the Korea Strait. The volume transport in the Korea Strait is dominated by the Kuroshio in winter (83%) and by the TWC in summer (66%). Relative to the transport through the Korea Strait, the transport percentages of the Tsugaru Strait connecting to the northwest Pacific Ocean are 79% in winter and 65% in summer. The seasonality of the Korea Strait transport is positively correlated with the cross-strait wind stress. The drifter experiments show that it takes about 4 months for most of the drifters deployed in the Taiwan Strait to enter the Korea Strait and more than 2 months to travel from the Korea Strait to the Tsugaru and Soya straits.

West Florida Shelf Response to Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Weisberg, R. H.; Chen, J.; Merz, C. R.; Law, J.; Zheng, L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Irma impacted the west Florida continental shelf (WFS) as it transited the state of Florida during September 10-12, 2017, making landfall first at Cudjoe Key and then again at Naples, as a Category 2 hurricane. The WFS response to Hurricane Irma is analyzed using a combination of in situ observations and numerical model simulations. The observations include water column velocity (by Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers), sea surface temperature and meteorological records from three moorings on the shelf, surface currents by high-frequency radars, and coastal tide gauge records. The West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM) employed downscales from the deep Gulf of Mexico, across the shelf and into the estuaries by nesting the unstructured grid FVCOM in the Gulf of Mexico HYCOM. Both the observations and the model simulations revealed strong upwelling and vertical mixing followed by downwelling as the storm passed by. This was accompanied by a rapid drop in sea surface temperature of approximately 4ºC and large decreases in sea level with associated negative surges, causing drying in the Florida Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay estuaries and the Big Bend region. The transport and exchange of water between the shelf and the estuaries and between the shelf and the Florida Keys reef track during the hurricane may have important implications for ecosystem studies within the region.

Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, John; Hosking, J. Scott; Marshall, Gareth J.; Phillips, Tony; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2016-04-01

We investigate the relationship between atmospheric circulation variability and the recent trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) atmospheric data, ECMWF Interim reanalysis fields and passive microwave satellite data processed with the Bootstrap version 2 algorithm. Over 1979-2013 the annual mean total Antarctic SIE increased at a rate of 195 × 103 km2 dec-1 (1.6 % dec-1), p < 0.01. The largest regional positive trend of annual mean SIE of 119 × 103 km2 dec-1 (4.0 % dec-1) has been in the Ross Sea sector. Off West Antarctica there is a high correlation between trends in SIE and trends in the near-surface winds. The Ross Sea SIE seasonal trends are positive throughout the year, but largest in spring. The stronger meridional flow over the Ross Sea has been driven by a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). Pre-industrial control and historical simulations from CMIP5 indicate that the observed deepening of the ASL and stronger southerly flow over the Ross Sea are within the bounds of modeled intrinsic variability. The spring trend would need to continue for another 11 years for it to fall outside the 2 standard deviation range seen in 90 % of the simulations.

Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

2017-04-01

The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in different environmental conditions, have been collected from RSE proprietary and public databases directly connected to the model. Finally, the possible pollution source has been chosen in correspondence with the offshore drilling wells for the exploitation of the "Ombrina Mare" oil field, located at a distance of 6 km from the coast, and the project includes a FPSO unit. A number of different scenarios have been simulated using the 3D model created by HyperSuite, in different environmental conditions and considering emission events of low intensity and long period or of high intensity and short period, located near the sea surface or near the sea bottom. For each scenario, a preliminary initialization in the fluid dynamic unperturbed conditions at the starting date has been carried out, from which the emission period followed by a properly duration of diffusion period of the pollutant has been simulated. The results allowed to evaluate the relevance of the effects due to the environmental parameters as the wind, sea current and tide, putting in evidence the capability of the methodology to support the safety requirements in the frame of off shore oil exploitation provided that a dynamic characterization of the environment parameters is accounted for a sufficient detail.

Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air-sea coupling in regional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziqian; Duan, Anmin; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

Based on the conventional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the air-sea coupled mode WRF-OMLM, we investigate the potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating by the air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Results indicate that the TP heating significantly enhances the southwesterly monsoon circulation over the northern Indian Ocean and the South Asia subcontinent. The intensified southwesterly wind cools the sea surface mainly through the wind-evaporation-SST (sea surface temperature) feedback. Cold SST anomaly then weakens monsoon convective activity, especially that over the Bay of Bengal, and less water vapor is thus transported into the TP along its southern slope from the tropical oceans. As a result, summer precipitation decreases over the TP, which further weakens the TP local heat source. Finally, the changed TP heating continues to influence the summer monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation. To a certain extent, the air-sea coupling over the adjacent oceans may weaken the effect of TP heating on the mean climate in summer. It is also implied that considerations of air-sea interaction are necessary in future simulation studies of the TP heating effect.

Rapid Ice-Sheet Changes and Mechanical Coupling to Solid-Earth/Sea-Level and Space Geodetic Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2015-12-01

Perturbations in gravitational and rotational potentials caused by climate driven mass redistribution on the earth's surface, such as ice sheet melting and terrestrial water storage, affect the spatiotemporal variability in global and regional sea level. Here we present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, high-resolution model for sea level. Unlike contemporary models that are based on spherical-harmonic formulation, the model can operate efficiently in a flexible embedded finite-element mesh system, thus capturing the physics operating at km-scale yet capable of simulating geophysical quantities that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. One obvious application is to compute evolution of sea level fingerprints and associated geodetic and astronomical observables (e.g., geoid height, gravity anomaly, solid-earth deformation, polar motion, and geocentric motion) as a companion to a numerical 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet simulation, thus capturing global signatures of climate driven mass redistribution. We evaluate some important time-varying signatures of GRACE inferred ice sheet mass balance and continental hydrological budget; for example, we identify dominant sources of ongoing sea-level change at the selected tide gauge stations, and explain the relative contribution of different sources to the observed polar drift. We also report our progress on ice-sheet/solid-earth/sea-level model coupling efforts toward realistic simulation of Pine Island Glacier over the past several hundred years.

Multiphase Reactive Transport and Platelet Ice Accretion in the Sea Ice of McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buffo, J. J.; Schmidt, B. E.; Huber, C.

2018-01-01

Sea ice seasonally to interannually forms a thermal, chemical, and physical boundary between the atmosphere and hydrosphere over tens of millions of square kilometers of ocean. Its presence affects both local and global climate and ocean dynamics, ice shelf processes, and biological communities. Accurate incorporation of sea ice growth and decay, and its associated thermal and physiochemical processes, is underrepresented in large-scale models due to the complex physics that dictate oceanic ice formation and evolution. Two phenomena complicate sea ice simulation, particularly in the Antarctic: the multiphase physics of reactive transport brought about by the inhomogeneous solidification of seawater, and the buoyancy driven accretion of platelet ice formed by supercooled ice shelf water onto the basal surface of the overlying ice. Here a one-dimensional finite difference model capable of simulating both processes is developed and tested against ice core data. Temperature, salinity, liquid fraction, fluid velocity, total salt content, and ice structure are computed during model runs. The model results agree well with empirical observations and simulations highlight the effect platelet ice accretion has on overall ice thickness and characteristics. Results from sensitivity studies emphasize the need to further constrain sea ice microstructure and the associated physics, particularly permeability-porosity relationships, if a complete model of sea ice evolution is to be obtained. Additionally, implications for terrestrial ice shelves and icy moons in the solar system are discussed.

Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

Radiative transfer simulations of the two-dimensional ocean glint reflectance and determination of the sea surface roughness.

PubMed

Lin, Zhenyi; Li, Wei; Gatebe, Charles; Poudyal, Rajesh; Stamnes, Knut

2016-02-20

An optimized discrete-ordinate radiative transfer model (DISORT3) with a pseudo-two-dimensional bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) is used to simulate and validate ocean glint reflectances at an infrared wavelength (1036 nm) by matching model results with a complete set of BRDF measurements obtained from the NASA cloud absorption radiometer (CAR) deployed on an aircraft. The surface roughness is then obtained through a retrieval algorithm and is used to extend the simulation into the visible spectral range where diffuse reflectance becomes important. In general, the simulated reflectances and surface roughness information are in good agreement with the measurements, and the diffuse reflectance in the visible, ignored in current glint algorithms, is shown to be important. The successful implementation of this new treatment of ocean glint reflectance and surface roughness in DISORT3 will help improve glint correction algorithms in current and future ocean color remote sensing applications.

Radiative Transfer Simulations of the Two-Dimensional Ocean Glint Reflectance and Determination of the Sea Surface Roughness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Zhenyi; Li, Wei; Gatebe, Charles; Poudyal, Rajesh; Stamnes, Knut

2016-01-01

An optimized discrete-ordinate radiative transfer model (DISORT3) with a pseudo-two-dimensional bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) is used to simulate and validate ocean glint reflectances at an infrared wavelength (1036 nm) by matching model results with a complete set of BRDF measurements obtained from the NASA cloud absorption radiometer (CAR) deployed on an aircraft. The surface roughness is then obtained through a retrieval algorithm and is used to extend the simulation into the visible spectral range where diffuse reflectance becomes important. In general, the simulated reflectances and surface roughness information are in good agreement with the measurements, and the diffuse reflectance in the visible, ignored in current glint algorithms, is shown to be important. The successful implementation of this new treatment of ocean glint reflectance and surface roughness in DISORT3 will help improve glint correction algorithms in current and future ocean color remote sensing applications.

Impact of the spatial distribution of the atmospheric forcing on water mass formation in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BéRanger, Karine; Drillet, Yann; Houssais, Marie-NoëLle; Testor, Pierre; Bourdallé-Badie, Romain; Alhammoud, Bahjat; Bozec, Alexandra; Mortier, Laurent; Bouruet-Aubertot, Pascale; CréPon, Michel

2010-12-01

The impact of the atmospheric forcing on the winter ocean convection in the Mediterranean Sea was studied with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. The major areas of focus are the Levantine basin, the Aegean-Cretan Sea, the Adriatic Sea, and the Gulf of Lion. Two companion simulations differing by the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric forcing were compared. The first simulation (MED16-ERA40) was forced by air-sea fields from ERA40, which is the ECMWF reanalysis. The second simulation (MED16-ECMWF) was forced by the ECMWF-analyzed surface fields that have a horizontal resolution twice as high as those of ERA40. The analysis of the standard deviations of the atmospheric fields shows that increasing the resolution of the atmospheric forcing leads in all regions to a better channeling of the winds by mountains and to the generation of atmospheric mesoscale patterns. Comparing the companion ocean simulation results with available observations in the Adriatic Sea and in the Gulf of Lion shows that MED16-ECMWF is more realistic than MED16-ERA40. In the eastern Mediterranean, although deep water formation occurs in the two experiments, the depth reached by the convection is deeper in MED16-ECMWF. In the Gulf of Lion, deep water formation occurs only in MED16-ECMWF. This larger sensitivity of the western Mediterranean convection to the forcing resolution is investigated by running a set of sensitivity experiments to analyze the impact of different time-space resolutions of the forcing on the intense winter convection event in winter 1998-1999. The sensitivity to the forcing appears to be mainly related to the effect of wind channeling by the land orography, which can only be reproduced in atmospheric models of sufficient resolution. Thus, well-positioned patterns of enhanced wind stress and ocean surface heat loss are able to maintain a vigorous gyre circulation favoring efficient preconditioning of the area at the beginning of winter and to drive realistic buoyancy loss and mixing responsible for strong convection at the end of winter.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Simply actuated closure for a pressure vessel - Design for use to trap deep-sea animals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yayanos, A. A.

1977-01-01

A pressure vessel is described that can be closed by a single translational motion within 1 sec. The vessel is a key component of a trap for small marine animals and operates automatically on the sea floor. As the vessel descends to the sea floor, it is subjected both internally and externally to the high pressures of the deep sea. The mechanism for closing the pressure vessel on the sea floor is activated by the timed release of the ballast which was used to sink the trap. As it rises to the sea surface, the internal pressure of the vessel remains near the value present on the sea floor. The pressure vessel has been used in simulated ocean deployments and in the deep ocean (9500 m) with a 75%-85% retention of the deep-sea pressure. Nearly 100% retention of pressure can be achieved by using an accumulator filled with a gas.

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Klugman, R.; Lutz, R. J.; Notario, J. J.

1978-01-01

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Estimation of the atmosphere-ocean fluxes of greenhouse gases and aerosols at the finer resolution of the coastal ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Vasco; Sahlée, Erik; Jurus, Pavel; Clementi, Emanuela; Pettersson, Heidi; Mateus, Marcos

2016-04-01

The balances and fluxes of greenhouse gases and aerosols between atmosphere and ocean are fundamental for Earth's heat budget. Hence, the scientific community needs to know and simulate them with accuracy in order to monitor climate change from Earth-Observation satellites and to produce reliable estimates of climate change using Earth-System Models (ESM). So far, ESM have represented earth's surface with coarser resolutions so that each cell of the marine domain is dominated by the open ocean. In such case it is enough to use simple algorithms considering the wind speed 10m above sea-surface (u10) as sole driver of the gas transfer velocity. The formulation by Wanninkhof (1992) is broadly accepted as the best. However, the ESM community is becoming increasingly aware of the need to model with finer resolutions. Then, it is no longer enough to only consider u10 when modelling gas transfer velocities across the coastal oceans' surfaces. More comprehensive formulations are required that adjust better to local conditions by also accounting for the effects of sea-surface agitation, wave breaking, atmospheric stability of the Surface Boundary Layer, current drag with the bottom, surfactants and rain. Accurate algorithms are also fundamental to monitor atmosphere and ocean greenhouse gas concentrations using satellite data and reverse modelling. Past satellite missions ERS, Envisat, Jason-2, Aqua, Terra and Metop, have already been remotely sensing the ocean's surface at much finer resolutions than ESM using instruments like MERIS, MODIS, AMR, AATSR, MIPAS, Poseidon-3, SCIAMACHY, SeaWiFS, and IASI. The planned new satellite missions Sentinel-3, OCO-2 and GOSAT will further increase the resolutions. We developed a framework to congregate competing formulations for the estimation of the solubility and transfer velocity of virtually any gas on the biosphere taking into consideration the atmosphere and ocean fundamental variables and their derived geophysical processes mentioned above. First, we tested with measured data from the Baltic. Then, we adapted it to a coupler for atmosphere (WRF) and ocean (WW3-NEMO) model components and tested with simulated data relative to the Mediterranean and coastal North Atlantic. Computational speed was greatly improved by calculus vectorization and parallelization. The classical solubility formulation was compared to a recent alternative relying in a different chemistry background. Differences between solubility formulations resulted in a bias of 3.86×106 ton of CO2, 880.7 ton of CH4 and 401 ton of N2O dissolved in the first meter below the sea-surface of the modelled region, corresponding to 5.9% of the N2O yearly discharged by European estuaries. These differences concentrated in sensitive areas for Earth-System dynamics: the cooler polar waters and warmer less-saline coastal waters. The classical transfer velocity formulation using solely u10 was compared to alternatives using the friction velocity, atmospheric stability, sea-surface agitation and wave breaking. Differences between estimated transfer velocities concentrated at the coastal ocean and resulted in 55.82% of the gas volume transferred over the sea-surface of the modelled region during the 66h simulated period.

How is the surface Atlantic water inflow through the Gibraltar Strait forecasted? A lagrangian validation of operational oceanographic services in the Alboran Sea and the Western Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotillo, M. G.; Amo-Baladrón, A.; Padorno, E.; Garcia-Ladona, E.; Orfila, A.; Rodríguez-Rubio, P.; Conti, D.; Madrid, J. A. Jiménez; de los Santos, F. J.; Fanjul, E. Alvarez

2016-11-01

An exhaustive validation of some of the operational ocean forecast products available in the Gibraltar Strait and the Alboran Sea is here presented. The skill of two ocean model solutions (derived from the Eulerian ocean forecast systems, such as the regional CMEMS IBI and the high resolution PdE SAMPA) in reproducing the complex surface dynamics in the above areas is evaluated. To this aim, in-situ measurements from the MEDESS-GIB drifter buoy database (comprising the Lagrangian positions, derived velocities and SST values) are used as the observational reference and the temporal coverage for the validation is 3 months (September to December 2014). Two metrics, a Lagrangian separation distance and a skill score, have been applied to evaluate the performance of the modelling systems in reproducing the observed trajectories. Furthermore, the SST validation with in-situ data is carried out by means of validating the model solutions with L3 satellite SST products. The Copernicus regional IBI products are evaluated in an extended domain, beyond the Alboran Sea, and covering western Mediterranean waters. This analysis reveals some strengths of the presented regional solution (i.e. realistic values of the Atlantic Jet in the Strait of Gibraltar area, realistic simulation of the Algerian Current). However, some shortcomings are also identified, with the major one being related to the simulated geographical position and intensity of the Alboran Gyres, particularly the western one. This performance limitation affects the IBI-modelled surface circulation in the entire Alboran Sea. On the other hand, the SAMPA system shows a more accurate model performance and it realistically reproduces the observed surface circulation in the area. The results reflect the effectiveness of the dynamical downscaling performed through the SAMPA system with respect to the regional IBI solution (in which SAMPA is nested), providing an objective measure of the potential added values introduced by the SAMPA downscaling solution in the Alboran Sea.

New Insights in Tropospheric Ozone and its Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Ziemke, Jerry R.; Rodriquez, Jose M.

2011-01-01

We have produced time-slice simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism. These simulations are forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years and use constant specified surface emissions, thereby providing a measure of the dynamically controlled ozone response. We examine the model performance in simulating tropospheric ozone and its variability. Here we show targeted comparisons results from our simulations with a multi-decadal tropical tropospheric column ozone dataset obtained from satellite observations of total column ozone. We use SHADOZ ozonesondes to gain insight into the observed vertical response and compare with the simulated vertical structure. This work includes but is not limited to ENSO related variability.

A Large Eddy Simulation Study of Heat Entrainment under Sea Ice in the Canadian Arctic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramudu, E.; Yang, D.; Gelderloos, R.; Meneveau, C. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Sea ice cover in the Arctic has declined rapidly in recent decades. The much faster than projected retreat suggests that climate models may be missing some key processes, or that these processes are not accurately represented. The entrainment of heat from the mixed layer by small-scale turbulence is one such process. In the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, relatively warm Pacific Summer Water (PSW) resides at the base of the mixed layer. With an increasing influx of PSW, the upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has been getting warmer and fresher since the early 2000s. While studies show a correlation between sea ice reduction and an increase in PSW temperature, others argue that PSW intrusions in the Canadian Basin cannot affect sea ice thickness because the strongly-stratified halocline prevents heat from the PSW layer from being entrained into the mixed layer and up to the basal ice surface. In this study, we try to resolve this conundrum by simulating the turbulent entrainment of heat from the PSW layer to a moving basal ice surface using large eddy simulation (LES). The LES model is based on a high-fidelity spectral approach on horizontal planes, and includes a Lagrangian dynamic subgrid model that reduces the need for empirical inputs for subgrid-scale viscosities and diffusivities. This LES tool allows us to investigate physical processes in the mixed layer at a very fine scale. We focus our study on summer conditions, when ice is melting, and show for a range of ice-drift velocities, halocline temperatures, and halocline salinity gradients characteristic of the Canadian Basin how much heat can be entrained from the PSW layer to the sea ice. Our results can be used to improve parameterizations of vertical heat flux under sea ice in coarse-grid ocean and climate models.

Storm observations by remote sensing and influences of gustiness on ocean waves and on generation of rogue waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleskachevsky, Andrey L.; Lehner, Susanne; Rosenthal, Wolfgang

2012-09-01

The impact of the gustiness on surface waves under storm conditions is investigated with focus on the appearance of wave groups with extreme high amplitude and wavelength in the North Sea. During many storms characterized by extremely high individual waves measured near the German coast, especially in cold air outbreaks, the moving atmospheric open cells are observed by optical and radar satellites. According to measurements, the footprint of the cell produces a local increase in the wind field at sea surface, moving as a consistent system with a propagation speed near to swell wave-traveling speed. The optical and microwave satellite data are used to connect mesoscale atmospheric turbulences and the extreme waves measured. The parameters of open cells observed are used for numerical spectral wave modeling. The North Sea with horizontal resolution of 2.5 km and with focus on the German Bight was simulated. The wind field "storm in storm," including moving organized mesoscale eddies with increased wind speed, was generated. To take into account the rapid moving gust structure, the input wind field was updated each 5 min. The test cases idealized with one, two, and four open individual cells and, respectively, with groups of open cells, with and without preexisting sea state, as well the real storm conditions, are simulated. The model results confirm that an individual-moving open cell can cause the local significant wave height increase in order of meters within the cell area and especially in a narrow area of 1-2 km at the footprint center of a cell (the cell's diameter is 40-90 km). In a case of a traveling individual open cell with 15 m·s-1 over a sea surface with a preexisting wind sea of and swell, a local significant wave height increase of 3.5 m is produced. A group of cells for a real storm condition produces a local increase of significant wave height of more than 6 m during a short time window of 10-20 min (cell passing). The sea surface simulation from modeled wave spectra points out the appearance of wave groups including extreme individual waves with a period of about 25 s and a wavelength of more than 350 m under the cell's footprint. This corresponds well with measurement of a rogue wave group with length of about 400 m and a period of near 25 s. This has been registered at FiNO-1 research platform in the North Sea during Britta storm on November 1, 2006 at 04:00 UTC. The results can explain the appearance of rogue waves in the German Bight and can be used for ship safety and coastal protection. Presently, the considered mesoscale gustiness cannot be incorporated in present operational wave forecasting systems, since it needs an update of the wind field at spatial and temporal scales, which is still not available for such applications. However, the scenario simulations for cell structures with appropriate travel speed, observed by optical and radar satellites, can be done and applied for warning messages.

The refreezing of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flocco, Daniela; Feltham, Daniel L.; Bailey, Eleanor; Schroeder, David

2015-02-01

The presence of melt ponds on the surface of Arctic sea ice significantly reduces its albedo, inducing a positive feedback leading to sea ice thinning. While the role of melt ponds in enhancing the summer melt of sea ice is well known, their impact on suppressing winter freezing of sea ice has, hitherto, received less attention. Melt ponds freeze by forming an ice lid at the upper surface, which insulates them from the atmosphere and traps pond water between the underlying sea ice and the ice lid. The pond water is a store of latent heat, which is released during refreezing. Until a pond freezes completely, there can be minimal ice growth at the base of the underlying sea ice. In this work, we present a model of the refreezing of a melt pond that includes the heat and salt balances in the ice lid, trapped pond, and underlying sea ice. The model uses a two-stream radiation model to account for radiative scattering at phase boundaries. Simulations and related sensitivity studies suggest that trapped pond water may survive for over a month. We focus on the role that pond salinity has on delaying the refreezing process and retarding basal sea ice growth. We estimate that for a typical sea ice pond coverage in autumn, excluding the impact of trapped ponds in models overestimates ice growth by up to 265 million km3, an overestimate of 26%.

Projected impact of climate change in the North and Baltic Sea. Results from dynamical downscaling of global CMIP climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gröger, Matthias; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Sein, Dmitry

2013-04-01

Climate models have predicted strongest climate change impact for the mid/high lattiude areas. Despite their importance, shelves seas (which are supposed to account for more than 20% of global marine primary production and for up to 50% of total marine carbon uptake) are not adequately resolved in climate models. In this study, the global ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC has been setup with an enhanced resolution over the NW European shelf (~10 km in the southern North Sea). For a realistic representation of atmosphere-ocean interactions the regional model REMO has been implemented. Thus, this model configuration allows a physically consistent simulation of climate signal propagation from the North Atlantic over the North Sea into the Baltic Sea since it interactively simulates mass and energy fluxes between the three basins. The results indicate substantial changes in hydrographic and biological conditions for the end of the 21st Century. A freshening by about 0.75 psu together with a surface warming of ~2.0 K and associated circulation changes in and outside the North Sea reduce biological production on the NW European shelf by ~35%. This reduction is twice as strong as the reduction in the open ocean. The underlying mechanism is a spatially well confined stratification feedback along the shelf break and the continental slope which reduces the winter mixed layer by locally more than 200 m compared to current conditions. As a consequence winter nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic declines between 40 and 50%. In addition to this, the volume transport of water and salt into the North Sea will slightly reduce (~10%) during summer. At the end of the 21st Century the North Sea appears nearly decoupled from the deep Atlantic. The projected decline in biological productivity and subsequent decrease of phytoplankton (by averaged 25%) will probably negatively affect the local fish stock in the North Sea. In the Baltic Sea the climate change impact is even stronger than in the North Sea. The surface temperature rises by 2.8 K and surface salinity declines by 1.3 psu. In the Gotland basin oxygen concentrations below 100m in the Baltic Sea reduce slowly and salt intrusion events from the North Sea become less frequent. This enhances the probability for extending hypoxic conditions in the Baltic Sea. The reproductive water volume for cod decreases by 25% towards the end of the simulations with main drops in the 1980'ies and 2020'ies. Due to the reduced biological production CO2 uptake in the North Sea is lowered by 1/3 at the end of the 21st Century compared to the end of the 20th Century implying a strong weakening of shelf carbon pumping. Contrary to previous studies, our results indicate that the North Sea acts only as a very weak carbon shelf pump. This is because most of the water exported to the open ocean remains within the mixed layer, where it is still exposed to the atmosphere. For the North Sea we estimate that currently only 20% of the absorbed carbon is stored for longer in the open ocean.

Influence of sea-ice coverage, sea-surface temperatures and latent heat release on baroclinic instability of an Arctic cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, A.; Zhang, X.

2012-12-01

Arctic sea ice has shrunk drastically and Arctic storm activity has intensified over last decades. To improve understanding air-ice-sea interactions in the context of storm activity, we conducted a modeling study of a selected intense storm that invaded and was persistent for prolonged time in the central Arctic Ocean during March 16-22, 2011. A series of control and sensitivity simulations were carried out by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which was configured using two nested domains at a resolution of 10 km for the inner domain and 30 km for the outer domain. The control simulations well captured the cyclone genesis, regeneration, track and intensity. Diagnostic analysis and a comparison between the and sensitivity experiments suggest that the strong intensity, regeneration, and long-lasting duration of the cyclone were driven by unusually sustained baroclinic instability, which was resulted due to (1) anomalously reduced sea-ice coverage and strong advection of heat, moisture and vorticity from the North Atlantic; and (2) a release of latent heat due to condensation.

A numerical model for the whole Wadden Sea: results on the hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gräwe, Ulf; Duran-Matute, Matias; Gerkema, Theo; Flöser, Götz; Burchard, Hans

2015-04-01

A high-resolution baroclinic three-dimensional numerical model for the entire Wadden Sea of the German Bight in the southern North Sea is first validated against field data for surface elevation, current velocity, temperature and salinity at selected stations and then used to calculate fluxes of volume, heat and salt inside the Wadden Sea and the exchange between the Wadden Sea and the adjacent North Sea through the major tidal inlets. The General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) is simulating the reference years 2009-2011. The numerical grid has a resolution of 200x200m and 30 adaptive vertical layers. It is the final stage of a multi-nested setup, starting from the North Atlantic. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the operational forecast of the German Weather Service. Additionally, the freshwater discharge of 23 local rivers and creeks are included. For validation, we use observations from a ship of opportunity measuring sea surface properties, tidal gauge stations, high frequency of salinity and volume transport estimates for the Mardiep and Spiekeroog inlet. Finally, the estuarine overturning circulation in three tidal gulleys is quantified. Regional differences between the gullies are assessed and drivers of the estuarine circulation are identified. Moreover, we will give a consistent estimate of the tidal prisms for all tidal inlets in the entire Wadden Sea.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison

PubMed Central

Dowsett, Harry J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Bentsen, Mats; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Chan, Wing-Le; Contoux, Camille; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jonas, Jeff A.; Jost, Anne; Kamae, Youichi; Lohmann, Gerrit; Lunt, Daniel J.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ramstein, Gilles; Riesselman, Christina R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Stepanek, Christian; Strother, Stephanie L.; Ueda, Hiroaki; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi

2013-01-01

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. PMID:23774736

Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

2014-12-01

The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic patterns occur in the model, but with typically smaller magnitudes and with season-specific geographical and directional differences.

Turbulent convection driven by internal radiative heating of melt ponds on sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Andrew; Langton, Tom; Rees Jones, David; Moon, Woosok

2016-11-01

The melting of Arctic sea ice is strongly influenced by heat transfer through melt ponds which form on the ice surface. Melt ponds are internally heated by the absorption of incoming radiation and cooled by surface heat fluxes, resulting in vigorous buoyancy-driven convection in the pond interior. Motivated by this setting, we conduct two-dimensional direct-numerical simulations of the turbulent convective flow of a Boussinesq fluid between two horizontal boundaries, with internal heating predicted from a two-stream radiation model. A linearised thermal boundary condition describes heat exchange with the overlying atmosphere, whilst the lower boundary is isothermal. Vertically asymmetric convective flow modifies the upper surface temperature, and hence controls the partitioning of the incoming heat flux between emission at the upper and lower boundaries. We determine how the downward heat flux into the ice varies with a Rayleigh number based on the internal heating rate, the flux ratio of background surface cooling compared to internal heating, and a Biot number characterising the sensitivity of surface fluxes to surface temperature. Thus we elucidate the physical controls on heat transfer through Arctic melt ponds which determine the fate of sea ice in the summer.

The impact of land and sea surface variations on the Delaware sea breeze at local scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Christopher P.

The summertime climate of coastal Delaware is greatly influenced by the intensity, frequency, and location of the local sea breeze circulation. Sea breeze induced changes in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation influence many aspects of Delaware's economy by affecting tourism, farming, air pollution density, energy usage, and the strength, and persistence of Delaware's wind resource. The sea breeze front can develop offshore or along the coastline and often creates a near surface thermal gradient in excess of 5°C. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the dynamics of the Delaware sea breeze with a focus on the immediate coastline using observed and modeled components, both at high resolutions (~200m). The Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.5) was employed over southern Delaware with 5 domains (4 levels of nesting), with resolutions ranging from 18km to 222m, for June 2013 to investigate the sensitivity of the sea breeze to land and sea surface variations. The land surface was modified in the model to improve the resolution, which led to the addition of land surface along the coastline and accounted for recent urban development. Nine-day composites of satellite sea surface temperatures were ingested into the model and an in-house SST forcing dataset was developed to account for spatial SST variation within the inland bays. Simulations, which include the modified land surface, introduce a distinct secondary atmospheric circulation across the coastline of Rehoboth Bay when synoptic offshore wind flow is weak. Model runs using high spatial- and temporal-resolution satellite sea surface temperatures over the ocean indicate that the sea breeze landfall time is sensitive to the SST when the circulation develops offshore. During the summer of 2013 a field campaign was conducted in the coastal locations of Rehoboth Beach, DE and Cape Henlopen, DE. At each location, a series of eleven small, autonomous thermo-sensors (i-buttons) were placed along 1-km transects oriented perpendicular to the coastline where each sensor recorded temperatures at five-minute intervals. This novel approach allows for detailed characterization of the sea breeze front development over the immediate coastline not seen in previous studies. These observations provide evidence of significant variability in frontal propagation (advancing, stalling, and retrograding) within the first kilometer of the coast. Results from this observational study indicate that the land surface has the largest effect on the frontal location when the synoptic winds have a strong offshore component, which forces the sea breeze front to move slowly through the region. When this happens, the frequency of occurrence and sea breeze frontal speed decreases consistently across the first 500 m of Rehoboth Beach, after which, the differences become insignificant. At Cape Henlopen the decrease in intensity across the transect is much less evident and the reduction in frequency does not occur until after the front is 500 m from the coast. Under these conditions at Rehoboth Beach, the near surface air behind the front warms due to the land surface which, along with the large surface friction component of the urbanized land surface, causes the front to slow as it traverses the region. Observation and modeling results suggest that the influence of variations in the land and sea surface on the sea breeze circulation is complex and highly dependent on the regional synoptic wind regime. This result inspired the development of a sea breeze prediction algorithm using a generalized linear regression model which, incorporated real-time synoptic conditions to forecast the likelihood of a sea breeze front passing through a coastal station. The forecast skill increases through the morning hours after sunrise. The inland synoptic wind direction is the most influential variable utilized by the algorithm. Such a model could be enhanced to forecast local temperature with coonfidence, which could be useful in an economic or energy usage model.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Surface Energy Fluxes During Autumn Ice Advance: Observations and Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, O. P. G.; Blomquist, B.; Grachev, A. A.; Guest, P. S.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Capotondi, A.; Fairall, C. W.; Intrieri, J. M.

2016-12-01

From Oct 4 to Nov 5, 2015, the Office of Naval Research - sponsored Sea State cruise in the Beaufort Sea with the new National Science Foundation R/V Sikuliaq obtained extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations of the lower troposphere, the advancing sea ice, wave state, and upper ocean conditions. In addition, a coupled atmosphere, sea ice, upper-ocean model, based on the RASM model, was run at NOAA/PSD in a hindcast mode for this same time period, providing a 10-day simulation of the atmosphere/ice/ocean evolution. Surface energy fluxes quantitatively represent the air-ice, air-ocean, and ice-ocean interaction processes, determining the cooling (warming) rate of the upper ocean and the growth (melting) rate of sea ice. These fluxes also impact the stratification of the lower troposphere and the upper ocean. In this presentation, both direct and indirect measurements of the energy fluxes during Sea State will be used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of these fluxes and the impacts of this variability on the upper ocean, ice, and lower atmosphere during the autumn ice advance. Analyses have suggested that these fluxes are impacted by atmospheric synoptic evolution, proximity to existing ice, ice-relative wind direction, ice thickness and snow depth. In turn, these fluxes impact upper-ocean heat loss and timing of ice formation, as well as stability in the lower troposphere and upper ocean, and hence heat transport to the free troposphere and ocean mixed-layer. Therefore, the atmospheric structure over the advancing first-year ice differs from that over the nearby open water. Finally, these observational analyses will be used to provide a preliminary validation of the spatial and temporal variability of the surface energy fluxes and the associated lower-tropospheric and upper-ocean structures in the simulations.

An Improved Cryosat-2 Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval Algorithm Through the Use of Waveform Fitting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, Nathan T.; Galin, N.; Studinger, M.

2014-01-01

We develop an empirical model capable of simulating the mean echo power cross product of CryoSat-2 SAR and SAR In mode waveforms over sea ice covered regions. The model simulations are used to show the importance of variations in the radar backscatter coefficient with incidence angle and surface roughness for the retrieval of surfaceelevation of both sea ice floes and leads. The numerical model is used to fit CryoSat-2 waveforms to enable retrieval of surface elevation through the use of look-up tables and a bounded trust region Newton least squares fitting approach. The use of a model to fit returns from sea ice regions offers advantages over currently used threshold retrackingmethods which are here shown to be sensitive to the combined effect of bandwidth limited range resolution and surface roughness variations. Laxon et al. (2013) have compared ice thickness results from CryoSat-2 and IceBridge, and found good agreement, however consistent assumptions about the snow depth and density of sea ice werenot used in the comparisons. To address this issue, we directly compare ice freeboard and thickness retrievals from the waveform fitting and threshold tracker methods of CryoSat-2 to Operation IceBridge data using a consistent set of parameterizations. For three IceBridge campaign periods from March 20112013, mean differences (CryoSat-2 IceBridge) of 0.144m and 1.351m are respectively found between the freeboard and thickness retrievals using a 50 sea ice floe threshold retracker, while mean differences of 0.019m and 0.182m are found when using the waveform fitting method. This suggests the waveform fitting technique is capable of better reconciling the seaice thickness data record from laser and radar altimetry data sets through the usage of consistent physical assumptions.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2003-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data fiom the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo- China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the lowlevel temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation.

Influence of the Surf Zone on the Marine Aerosol Concentration in a Coastal Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedeschi, Gilles; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Piazzola, Jacques; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta T.

2017-01-01

Sea-salt aerosol concentrations in the coastal zone are assessed with the numerical aerosol-transport model MACMod that applies separate aerosol source functions for open ocean and the surf zone near the sea-land transition. Numerical simulations of the aerosol concentration as a function of offshore distance from the surf zone compare favourably with experimental data obtained during a surf-zone aerosol experiment in Duck, North Carolina in autumn 2007. Based on numerical simulations, the effect of variations in aerosol production (source strength) and transport conditions (wind speed, air-sea temperature difference), we show that the surf-zone aerosols are replaced by aerosols generated over the open ocean as the airmass advects out to sea. The contribution from the surf-generated aerosol is significant during high wind speeds and high wave events, and is significant up to 30 km away from the production zone. At low wind speeds, the oceanic component dominates, except within 1-5 km of the surf zone. Similar results are obtained for onshore flow, where no further sea-salt aerosol production occurs as the airmass advects out over land. The oceanic aerosols that are well-mixed throughout the boundary layer are then more efficiently transported inland than are the surf-generated aerosols, which are confined to the first few tens of metres above the surface, and are therefore also more susceptible to the type of surface (trees or grass) that determines the deposition velocity.

Retrieval of the thickness of undeformed sea ice from simulated C-band compact polarimetric SAR images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xi; Dierking, Wolfgang; Zhang, Jie; Meng, Junmin; Lang, Haitao

2016-07-01

In this paper we introduce a parameter for the retrieval of the thickness of undeformed first-year sea ice that is specifically adapted to compact polarimetric (CP) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The parameter is denoted as the "CP ratio". In model simulations we investigated the sensitivity of the CP ratio to the dielectric constant, ice thickness, ice surface roughness, and radar incidence angle. From the results of the simulations we deduced optimal sea ice conditions and radar incidence angles for the ice thickness retrieval. C-band SAR data acquired over the Labrador Sea in circular transmit and linear receive (CTLR) mode were generated from RADARSAT-2 quad-polarization images. In comparison with results from helicopter-borne measurements, we tested different empirical equations for the retrieval of ice thickness. An exponential fit between the CP ratio and ice thickness provides the most reliable results. Based on a validation using other compact polarimetric SAR images from the same region, we found a root mean square (rms) error of 8 cm and a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.94 for the retrieval procedure when applying it to level ice between 0.1 and 0.8 m thick.

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald Lindsay; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.; Tausnev, Nick; Bauer, Susanne E.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Kelley, Max; Lo, Ken K.; Ruedy, Reto; Shindell, Drew T.;

Antarctic Climate Variability: Covariance of Ozone and Sea Ice in Atmosphere - Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jrrar, Amna; Abraham, N. Luke; Pyle, John A.; Holland, David

2014-05-01

Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and insulating nature. While Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) shows a negative trend. Antarctic SIE shows a weak but positive trend, estimated at 0.127 x 106 km2 per decade. The trend results from large regional cancellations, more ice in the Weddell and the Ross seas, and less ice in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen seas. A number of studies had demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion has had a major impact on the atmospheric circulation, causing a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has been linked to the observed positive trend in autumn sea ice in the Ross Sea. However, other modelling studies show that models forced with prescribed ozone hole simulate decreased sea ice in all regions comparative to a control run. A recent study has also shown that stratospheric ozone recovery will mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss. To verify this assumed relationship, it is important first to investigate the covariance between ozone's natural (dynamical) variability and Antarctic sea ice distribution in pre-industrial climate, to estimate the trend due to natural variability. We investigate the relationship between anomalous Antarctic ozone years and the subsequent changes in Antarctic sea ice distribution in a multidecadal control simulation using the AO-UMUKCA model. The model has a horizontal resolution of 3.75 X 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude; and 60 hybrid height levels in the vertical, from the surface up to a height of 84 km. The ocean component is the NEMO ocean model on the ORCA2 tripolar grid, and the sea ice model is CICE. We evaluate the model's performance in terms of sea ice distribution, and we calculate sea ice extent trends for composites of anomalously low versus anomalously high SH polar ozone column. We apply EOF analysis to the seasonal anomalies of sea ice concentration, MSLP, and Z 500, and identify the leading climate modes controlling the variability of Antarctic sea ice in each case, and study their relationship with SH polar ozone column.

Application of LANDSAT satellite imagery and oceanographic data for verification of an upwelling mathematical model. [Atlantic Coast of Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Tanaka, K.; Almeida, E. G.

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Data obtained during the cruise of the Cabo Frio and from LANDSAT imagery are used to discuss the characteristics of a linear model which simulates wind induced currents calculated from meteorological conditions at the time of the mission. There is a significant correspondance between the model of simulated horizontal water circulation, sea surface temperature, and surface currents observed on LANDSAT imagery. Close approximations were also observed between the simulation of vertical water movement (upwelling) and the oceanographic measurements taken along a series of points of the prevailing currents.

Ship Observations and Numerical Simulation of the Marine Atmosphericboundary Layer over the Spring Oceanic Front in the Northwestern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Shi, R.; Chen, J.; Guo, X.; Zeng, L.; Li, J.; Xie, Q.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

The response of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) structure to an oceanic front is analyzed using Global Positioning System (GPS) sounding data obtained during a survey in the northwestern South China Sea (NSCS) over a period of about one week in April 2013. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to further examine the thermodynamical mechanisms of the MABL's response to the front. The WRF model successfully simulates the change in the MABL structure across the front, which agrees well with the observations. The spatially high-pass-filtered fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and 10-m neutral equivalent wind from the WRF model simulation show a tight, positive coupling between the SST and surface winds near the front. Meanwhile, the SST front works as a damping zone to reduce the enhancement of wind blowing from the warm to the cold side of the front in the lower boundary layer. Analysis of the momentum budget shows that the most active and significant term affecting horizontal momentum over the frontal zone is the adjustment of the pressure gradient. It is found that the front in the NSCS is wide enough for slowly moving air parcels to be affected by the change in underlying SST. The different thermal structure upwind and downwind of the front causes a baroclinic adjustment of the perturbation pressure from the surface to the mid-layer of the MABL, which dominates the change in the wind profile across the front.

Safe Maritime Autonomous Path Planning in a High Sea State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Quadrelli, Marco; Huntsberger, Terrance L.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a path planning method for sea surface vehicles that prevents capsizing and bow-diving in a high sea-state. A key idea is to use response amplitude operators (RAOs) or, in control terminology, the transfer functions from a sea state to a vessel's motion, in order to find a set of speeds and headings that results in excessive pitch and roll oscillations. This information is translated to arithmetic constraints on the ship's velocity, which are passed to a model predictive control (MPC)-based path planner to find a safe and optimal path that achieves specified goals. An obstacle avoidance capability is also added to the path planner. The proposed method is demonstrated by simulations.

Morning transition case between the land and the sea breeze regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Maria A.; Simó, Gemma; Wrenger, Burkhard; Telisman-Prtenjak, Maja; Guijarro, Jose A.; Cuxart, Joan

2016-05-01

An experimental field campaign took place in September 2013 near the coastline in the southeastern Campos basin in the island of Mallorca to characterize experimentally the transition between the sea and the land breezes and to further study the successful cases with the corresponding high-resolution numerical simulations. Favorable weather conditions were only found for one episode that comprised a well-formed nocturnal land breeze, followed by the morning transition to sea breeze until noon the next day, when incoming clouds switched off the breeze regime. To analyse this transition between land and sea breezes, the official network of stations is used, supplemented by a portable station close to the shore and soundings of temperature (taken by a captive balloon and remotely controlled multicopter). These data are used to check the goodness of the corresponding simulation at a horizontal resolution of 1 km. Model and observations see similarly both regimes and the transition, showing some differences in the timing and the details in the surface layer. This transient event is analyzed in terms of phases, going consecutively through land breeze, phase previous to the sea breeze, when land heating starts, but it is still colder than the sea, the preparatory phase when the land becomes warmer than the sea, and the development phase when the breeze front progresses inland.

Cascading ocean basins: numerical simulations of the circulation and interbasin exchange in the Azov-Black-Marmara-Mediterranean Seas system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanev, Emil Vassilev; Grashorn, Sebastian; Zhang, Yinglong Joseph

2017-08-01

In this paper, we use the unstructured grid model SCHISM to simulate the thermohydrodynamics in a chain of baroclinic, interconnected basins. The model shows a good skill in simulating the horizontal circulation and vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and currents. The magnitude and phases of the seasonal changes of circulation are consistent with earlier observations. Among the mesoscale and subbasin-scale circulation features that are realistically simulated are the anticyclonic coastal eddies, the Sebastopol and Batumi eddies, the Marmara Sea outflow around the southern coast of the Limnos Island, and the pathway of the cold water originating from the shelf. The superiority of the simulations compared to earlier numerical studies is demonstrated with the example of model capabilities to resolve the strait dynamics, gravity currents originating from the straits, high-salinity bottom layer on the shallow shelf, as well as the multiple intrusions from the Bosporus Strait down to 700 m depth. The warm temperature intrusions from the strait produce the warm water mass in the intermediate layers of the Black Sea. One novel result is that the seasonal intensification of circulation affects the interbasin exchange, thus allowing us to formulate the concept of circulation-controlled interbasin exchange. To the best of our knowledge, the present numerical simulations, for the first time, suggest that the sea level in the interior part of the Black Sea can be lower than the sea level in the Marmara Sea and even in some parts of the Aegean Sea. The comparison with observations shows that the timings and magnitude of exchange flows are also realistically simulated, along with the blocking events. The short-term variability of the strait transports is largely controlled by the anomalies of wind. The simulations demonstrate the crucial role of the narrow and shallow strait of Bosporus in separating the two pairs of basins: Aegean-Marmara Seas from one side and Azov-Black Seas from the other side. The straits of Kerch and Dardanelles provide sufficient interbasin connectivity that prevents large phase lags of the sea levels in the neighboring basins. The two-layer flows in the three straits considered here show different dependencies upon the net transport, and the spatial variability of this dependence is also quite pronounced. We show that the blocking of the surface flow can occur at different net transports, thus casting doubt on a previous approach of using simple relationships to prescribe (steady) outflow and inflow. Specific attention is paid to the role of synoptic atmospheric forcing for the basin-wide circulation and redistribution of mass in the Black Sea. An important controlling process is the propagation of coastal waves. One major conclusion from this research is that modeling the individual basins separately could result in large inaccuracies because of the critical importance of the cascading character of these interconnected basins.

Sea spray contributions to the air-sea fluxes at moderate and hurricane wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, J. A.; Veron, F.

2009-12-01

At sufficiently high wind speed conditions, the surface of the ocean separates to form a substantial number of sea spray drops, which can account for a significant fraction of the total air-sea surface area and thus make important contributions to the aggregate air-sea momentum, heat and mass fluxes. Although consensus around the qualitative impacts of these drops has been building in recent years, the quantification of their impacts has remained elusive. Ultimately, the spray-mediated fluxes depend on three controlling factors: the number and size of drops formed at the surface, the duration of suspension within the atmospheric marine boundary layer, and the rate of momentum, heat and mass transfer between the drops and the atmosphere. While the latter factor can be estimated from an established, physically-based theory, the estimates for the former two are not well established. Using a recent, physically-based model of the sea spray source function along with the results from Lagrangian stochastic simulations of individual drops, we estimate the aggregate spray-mediated fluxes, finding reasonable agreement with existing models and estimates within the empirical range of wind speed conditions. At high wind speed conditions that are outside the empirical range, however, we find somewhat lower spray-mediated fluxes than previously reported in the literature, raising new questions about the relative air-sea fluxes at high wind speeds as well as the development and sustainment of hurricanes.

Spectral decomposition of internal gravity wave sea surface height in global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, Anna C.; Arbic, Brian K.; Alford, Matthew H.; Ansong, Joseph K.; Farrar, J. Thomas; Menemenlis, Dimitris; O'Rourke, Amanda K.; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Voet, Gunnar; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Zamudio, Luis

2017-10-01

Two global ocean models ranging in horizontal resolution from 1/12° to 1/48° are used to study the space and time scales of sea surface height (SSH) signals associated with internal gravity waves (IGWs). Frequency-horizontal wavenumber SSH spectral densities are computed over seven regions of the world ocean from two simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and three simulations of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). High wavenumber, high-frequency SSH variance follows the predicted IGW linear dispersion curves. The realism of high-frequency motions (>0.87 cpd) in the models is tested through comparison of the frequency spectral density of dynamic height variance computed from the highest-resolution runs of each model (1/25° HYCOM and 1/48° MITgcm) with dynamic height variance frequency spectral density computed from nine in situ profiling instruments. These high-frequency motions are of particular interest because of their contributions to the small-scale SSH variability that will be observed on a global scale in the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite altimetry mission. The variance at supertidal frequencies can be comparable to the tidal and low-frequency variance for high wavenumbers (length scales smaller than ˜50 km), especially in the higher-resolution simulations. In the highest-resolution simulations, the high-frequency variance can be greater than the low-frequency variance at these scales.

Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

2016-04-01

An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

Interaction of the sea breeze with a river breeze in an area of complex coastal heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhong, Shiyuan; Takle, Eugene S.; Leone, John M., Jr.

1991-01-01

The interaction of the sea-breeze circulation with a river-breeze circulation in an area of complex coastal heating (east coast of Florida) was studied using a 3D finite-element mesoscale model. The model simulations are compared with temperature and wind fields observed on a typical fall day during the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment. The results from numerical experiments designed to isolate the effect of the river breeze indicate that the convergence in the sea-breeze front is suppressed when it passes over the cooler surface of the rivers.

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

PubMed

Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

2010-08-24

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

1975-01-01

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Observations and simulations of three-dimensional radiative interactions between Arctic boundary layer clouds and ice floes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, M.; Bierwirth, E.; Ehrlich, A.; Jäkel, E.; Wendisch, M.

2015-01-01

Based on airborne spectral imaging observations three-dimensional (3-D) radiative effects between Arctic boundary layer clouds and ice floes have been identified and quantified. A method is presented to discriminate sea ice and open water in case of clouds from imaging radiance measurements. This separation simultaneously reveals that in case of clouds the transition of radiance between open water and sea ice is not instantaneously but horizontally smoothed. In general, clouds reduce the nadir radiance above bright surfaces in the vicinity of sea ice - open water boundaries, while the nadir radiance above dark surfaces is enhanced compared to situations with clouds located above horizontal homogeneous surfaces. With help of the observations and 3-D radiative transfer simulations, this effect was quantified to range between 0 and 2200 m distance to the sea ice edge. This affected distance Δ L was found to depend on both, cloud and sea ice properties. For a ground overlaying cloud in 0-200 m altitude, increasing the cloud optical thickness from τ = 1 to τ = 10 decreases Δ L from 600 to 250 m, while increasing cloud base altitude or cloud geometrical thickness can increase Δ L; Δ L(τ = 1/10) = 2200 m/1250 m for 500-1000 m cloud altitude. To quantify the effect for different shapes and sizes of the ice floes, various albedo fields (infinite straight ice edge, circles, squares, realistic ice floe field) were modelled. Simulations show that Δ L increases by the radius of the ice floe and for sizes larger than 6 km (500-1000 m cloud altitude) asymptotically reaches maximum values, which corresponds to an infinite straight ice edge. Furthermore, the impact of these 3-D-radiative effects on retrieval of cloud optical properties was investigated. The enhanced brightness of a dark pixel next to an ice edge results in uncertainties of up to 90 and 30% in retrievals of cloud optical thickness and effective radius reff, respectively. With help of Δ L quantified here, an estimate of the distance to the ice edge for which the retrieval errors are negligible is given.

Foehn-induced effects on local dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Savir, Amit; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2018-06-01

Despite the long history of investigation of foehn phenomena, there are few studies of the influence of foehn winds on air pollution and none in the Dead Sea valley. For the first time the foehn phenomenon and its effects on local dust pollution, frontal cloudiness and surface solar radiation were analyzed in the Dead Sea valley, as it occurred on 22 March 2013. This was carried out using both numerical simulations and observations. The foehn winds intensified local dust emissions, while the foehn-induced temperature inversion trapped dust particles beneath this inversion. These two factors caused extreme surface dust concentration in the western Dead Sea valley. The dust pollution was transported by west winds eastward, to the central Dead Sea valley, where the speed of these winds sharply decreased. The transported dust was captured by the ascending airflow contributing to the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the central Dead Sea valley. On the day under study, the maximum surface dust concentration did not coincide with the maximum AOD: this being one of the specific effects of the foehn phenomenon on dust pollution in the Dead Sea valley. Radar data showed a passage of frontal cloudiness through the area of the Dead Sea valley leading to a sharp drop in noon solar radiation. The descending airflow over the downwind side of the Judean Mountains led to the formation of a cloud-free band followed by only the partial recovery of solar radiation because of the extreme dust pollution caused by foehn winds.

Precession and atmospheric CO2 modulated variability of sea ice in the central Okhotsk Sea since 130,000 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Li; Belt, Simon T.; Lattaud, Julie; Friedrich, Tobias; Zeeden, Christian; Schouten, Stefan; Smik, Lukas; Timmermann, Axel; Cabedo-Sanz, Patricia; Huang, Jyh-Jaan; Zhou, Liping; Ou, Tsong-Hua; Chang, Yuan-Pin; Wang, Liang-Chi; Chou, Yu-Min; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chen, Min-Te; Wei, Kuo-Yen; Song, Sheng-Rong; Fang, Tien-Hsi; Gorbarenko, Sergey A.; Wang, Wei-Lung; Lee, Teh-Quei; Elderfield, Henry; Hodell, David A.

2018-04-01

Recent reduction in high-latitude sea ice extent demonstrates that sea ice is highly sensitive to external and internal radiative forcings. In order to better understand sea ice system responses to external orbital forcing and internal oscillations on orbital timescales, here we reconstruct changes in sea ice extent and summer sea surface temperature (SSST) over the past 130,000 yrs in the central Okhotsk Sea. We applied novel organic geochemical proxies of sea ice (IP25), SSST (TEX86L) and open water marine productivity (a tri-unsaturated highly branched isoprenoid and biogenic opal) to marine sediment core MD01-2414 (53°11.77‧N, 149°34.80‧E, water depth 1123 m). To complement the proxy data, we also carried out transient Earth system model simulations and sensitivity tests to identify contributions of different climatic forcing factors. Our results show that the central Okhotsk Sea was ice-free during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and the early-mid Holocene, but experienced variable sea ice cover during MIS 2-4, consistent with intervals of relatively high and low SSST, respectively. Our data also show that the sea ice extent was governed by precession-dominated insolation changes during intervals of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 190 to 260 ppm. However, the proxy record and the model simulation data show that the central Okhotsk Sea was near ice-free regardless of insolation forcing throughout the penultimate interglacial, and during the Holocene, when atmospheric CO2 was above ∼260 ppm. Past sea ice conditions in the central Okhotsk Sea were therefore strongly modulated by both orbital-driven insolation and CO2-induced radiative forcing during the past glacial/interglacial cycle.

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

2017-12-01

Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

Internal gravity wave contributions to global sea surface variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, A.; Arbic, B. K.; Richman, J. G.; Shriver, J. F.; Buijsman, M. C.; Zamudio, L.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Sharma, H.

2016-02-01

High-resolution (1/12th and 1/25th degree) 41-layer simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), forced by both atmospheric fields and the astronomical tidal potential, are used to construct global maps of sea-surface height (SSH). The HYCOM output has been separated into steric, non-steric, and total sea-surface height and the maps display variance in subtidal, tidal, and supertidal bands. Two of the global maps are of particular interest in planning for the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide-swath satellite altimeter mission; (1) a map of the nonstationary tidal signal (estimated after removing the stationary tidal signal via harmonic analysis), and (2) a map of the steric supertidal contributions, which are dominated by the internal gravity wave continuum. Both of these maps display signals of order 1 cm2, the target accuracy for the SWOT mission. Therefore, both non-stationary internal tides and non-tidal internal gravity waves are likely to be important sources of "noise" that must be accurately removed before examination of lower-frequency phenomena can take place.

Hydrologic conditions in urban Miami-Dade County, Florida, and the effect of groundwater pumpage and increased sea level on canal leakage and regional groundwater flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy T.

2014-01-01

The model was designed specifically to evaluate the effect of groundwater pumpage on canal leakage at the surface-water-basin scale and thus may not be appropriate for (1) predictions that are dependent on data not included in the calibration process (for example, subdaily simulation of high-intensity events and travel times) and (or) (2) hydrologic conditions that are substantially different from those during the calibration and verification periods. The reliability of the model is limited by the conceptual model of the surface-water and groundwater system, the spatial distribution of physical properties, the scale and discretization of the system, and specified boundary conditions. Some of the model limitations are manifested in model errors. Despite these limitations, however, the model represents the complexities of the interconnected surface-water and groundwater systems that affect how the systems respond to groundwater pumpage, sea-level rise, and other hydrologic stresses. The model also quantifies the relative effects of groundwater pumpage and sea-level rise on the surface-water and groundwater systems.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.

Slush Fund: The Multiphase Nature of Oceanic Ices and Its Role in Shaping Europa's Icy Shell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buffo, J.; Schmidt, B. E.; Huber, C.

2017-12-01

The role of Europa's ice shell in mediating ocean-surface interaction, constraining potential habitability of the underlying hydrosphere, and dictating the surface morphology of the moon is discussed extensively in the literature, yet the dynamics and characteristics of the shell itself remain largely unconstrained. Some of the largest unknowns arise from underrepresented physics and varying a priori assumptions built into the current ice shell models. Here we modify and apply a validated one-dimensional reactive transport model designed to simulate the formation and evolution of terrestrial sea ice to the Europa environment. The top-down freezing of sea ice due to conductive heat loss to the atmosphere is akin to the formation of the Jovian moon's outer ice shell, albeit on a different temporal and spatial scale. Nevertheless, the microscale physics that govern the formation of sea ice on Earth (heterogenous solidification leading to brine pockets and channels, multiphase reactive transport phenomena, gravity drainage) likely operate in a similar manner at the ice-ocean interface of Europa, dictating the thermal, chemical, and mechanical properties of the ice shell. Simulations of the European ice-ocean interface at different stages during the ice shell's evolution are interpolated to produce vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, solid fraction, and eutectic points throughout the entire shell. Additionally, the model is coupled to the equilibrium chemistry package FREZCHEM to investigate the impact a diverse range of putative European ocean chemistries has on ice shell properties. This method removes the need for a priori assumptions of impurity entrainment rates and ice shell properties, thus providing a first principles constraint on the stratigraphic characteristics of a simulated European ice shell. These insights have the potential to improve existing estimates for the onset of solid state convection, melt lens formation due to eutectic melting, ice shell thickness, and ocean-surface interaction rates. Moreover, this work aims to shed light on the important role microscale physics plays in determining the macroscale properties of icy worlds by highlighting and adapting successful multiphase reactive transport sea ice models utilized in large scale Earth systems science simulations.

Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, M. S.; Keene, William C.; Zhang, J.

2016-11-08

Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3 rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD ormore » Na +, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.« less

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, X.; Hünicke, B.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-11-01

Studies based on upwelling indices (sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind) suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In order to examine this relationship directly, we employ the vertical water mass transport produced by the eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by meteorological reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyze the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analyses reveal high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r=0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the ISM is small and other factors might contribute to the upwelling variability. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modeled upwelling time series.

A wind comparison study using an ocean general circulation model for the 1997-1998 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

2001-02-01

Predictions of the 1997-1998 El Niño exhibited a wide range of forecast skill that were dependent, in part, on the wind-driven initial conditions for the ocean. In this study the results of a reduced gravity, primitive equation, sigma coordinate ocean general circulation model are compared and contrasted when forced by several different wind products for the 1997-1998 El Niño/La Niña. The different wind products include atmospheric model winds, satellite wind products, and a subjective analysis of ship and in situ winds. The model results are verified against fields of observed sea level anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon data, sea surface temperature analyses, and subsurface temperature from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean buoy array. Depending on which validation data type one chooses, different wind products provide the best forcing fields for simulating the observed signal. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds provide the best simulations of the spatial and temporal signal of the observed sea level. This is due to the accuracy of the meridional gradient of the zonal wind stress component that these products provide. Differences in wind forcing also affect subsurface dynamics and thermodynamics. For example, the wind products with the weakest magnitude best reproduce the sea surface temperature (SST) signal in the eastern Pacific. For these products the mixed layer is shallower, and the thermocline is closer to the surface. For such simulations the subsurface thermocline variability influences the variation in SST more than in reality. The products with the greatest wind magnitude have a strong cold bias of >1.5°C in the eastern Pacific because of increased mixing. The satellite winds along with the analysis winds correctly reproduce the depth of the thermocline and the general subsurface temperature structure.

The Impact of Gulf Stream-Induced Diabatic Forcing on Coastal Mid-Atlantic Surface Cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph Jerome

In this dissertation, numerical experiments were conducted using a mesoscale atmospheric model developed at North Carolina State University. Three sets of numerical experiments were conducted and were designed to: quantify the impact Gulf Stream frontal distance, initial surface air temperature and cold air outbreak timing each have on the subsequent development of the marine atmospheric boundary layer during periods of offshore cold advection; investigate critical processes associated with Gulf Stream -induced mesocyclogenesis and; elucidate the role SST gradients and surface fluxes of heat and moisture have on the intensification and track of propagating mesocyclonic systems within the highly baroclinic Gulf Stream region. A major finding from the offshore cold advection simulations is that the initial air-sea contrast is the dominant forcing mechanism linked to the offshore circulation development and marine boundary layer modification. Results from the mesocyclogenesis experiments indicate that surface cyclogenesis was simulated to occur along a Gulf Stream meander in a region where the gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) were maximized. Results from sensitivity experiments illustrate that changes in the Gulf Stream SST gradient pattern can act to alter the timing and degree of cyclonic development simulated, while the inclusion of surface fluxes and moist convective processes during the development phase act to strongly enhance the intensity and/or occurrence of simulated mesocyclogenesis. Both observational and numerical results from studies investigating the impact strong Gulf Stream SST gradients have on the development of pre-existing, propagating cyclonic systems show that the baroclinic nature of the low level environment near the circulation center (as well as the degree of simulated/observed surface cyclonic intensification) appear to be highly dependent upon the mesoscale storm track within the Gulf Stream frontal zone. Furthermore, the numerical storm track experiments conducted in this research illustrate that surfaces fluxes can act to significantly alter the storm track of the surface mesocyclone (in addition to impacting the overall intensification of the simulated cyclonic system). This work also presents the technique development and operational utilization of the recently devised Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII). The index continues to be implemented by the National Weather Service at the Raleigh-Durham and surrounding coastal forecast offices, and to date, has been successfully utilized for 11 coastal winter storm events over the February 1994-January 1996 period.

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Meteorological and Oceanographic Data Sets for 1985 and 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Ashby, H.; Finch, C.; Smith, E.; Robles, J.

1990-01-01

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is a component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) World Climate Research Program (WCRP). One of the objectives of TOGA, which began in 1985, is to determine the limits of predictability of monthly mean sea surface temperature variations in tropical regions. The TOGA program created a raison d'etre for an explosive growth of the tropical ocean observing system and a substantial improvement in numerical simulations from atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. Institutions located throughout the world are involved in the TOGA-distributed active data archive system. The diverse TOGA data sets for 1985 and 1986, including results from general circulation models, are included on a CD-ROM. Variables on the CD-ROM are barometric pressure, surface air temperature, dewpoint temperature Cartesian components of surface wind, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes,Cartesian components of surface wind stress and of an index of surface wind stress, sea level, sea surface temperature, and depth profiles of temperature and current in the upper ocean. Some data sets are global in extent, some are regional and cover portions of an ocean basin. Data on the CD-ROM can be extracted with an Apple Macintosh or an IBM PC.

Foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation in the Dead Sea valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, Pavel; Starobinets, Boris; Alpert, Pinhas; Kaplan, Michael

2017-04-01

The significant drying up of the Dead Sea over the past 40 years has led to an increase in an exposed area contributing to local dust pollution. Measurements show that, sometimes, in the Dead Sea valley, dust pollution can reach extreme concentrations up to several thousands of micrograms per cubic meters. Our analysis of a meteorological situation shows that a foehn phenomenon can be a causal factor for the aforementioned extreme local dust concentration. This foehn phenomenon creates strong warm and dry winds, which are accompanied by air turbulence and temperature inversion. In our study, foehn-induced effects on dust pollution, frontal clouds and solar radiation were analyzed over the Judean Mountains ( 1000 m) and over the Dead Sea valley (-420 m), using high-resolution numerical simulations and in-situ observations at meteorological stations located across the mountain ridge. An extreme dust episode occurring on March 22, 2013, was analyzed, which was characterized by measured surface dust concentrations of up to 7000 µg m-3 in the Dead Sea valley. We simulated this foehn phenomenon with the 3-km resolution COSMO-ART model. Our analysis has shown that the foehn phenomenon could be observed even over the relatively low Judean Mountains. This analysis was based on various meteorological, pyranometer, radar, and aerosol measurements together with high-resolution model data. In the Dead Sea valley, the maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) did not coincide with the maximum surface dust concentration. This lack of coincidence indicates difficulties in using satellite-based AOD for initializing dust concentration within numerical forecast systems over this region with complex terrain. In the western Dead Sea valley, strong foehn winds of over 20 m/s were accompanied by maximal air turbulence leading to maximal local dust emissions. Thus, the model showed that, by creating significant turbulence, the foehn phenomenon intensified the saltation (bombardment) mechanism of local dust generation in the western Dead Sea valley. In addition, the foehn-induced pronounced temperature inversion trapped dust particles beneath this inversion. These two factors caused the measured extreme surface dust concentration in the Dead Sea valley on the specified day. Radar data on March 22 showed a passage of multi-layer frontal cloudiness through the area of the Dead Sea valley leading to a sharp drop in noon solar radiation. The strong descending airflow over the downwind side of the Judean Mountains significantly influenced the frontal cloudiness leading to the formation of a cloud-free band over the Dead Sea valley.

The Sea of Simulation: Improving Naval Shiphandling Training and Readiness through Game-Based Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

Officer SWOI Surface Warfare Officer Introduction SWOS Surface Warfare Officers School xvii TFT Thin Film Transistor ULTRA Unit Level Training...designed the experiment , including participants, procedures, facilities selection, and materials. Chapter IV: Results and Discussion. This chapter...contains the results of experimentation and an interpretation of those results . Chapter V: Conclusions. This chapter provides an overall assessment

Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

2017-02-01

Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

A balanced Kalman filter ocean data assimilation system with application to the South Australian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Toumi, Ralf

2017-08-01

In this paper, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) based regional ocean data assimilation system has been developed and applied to the South Australian Sea. This system consists of the data assimilation algorithm provided by the NCAR Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). We describe the first implementation of the physical balance operator (temperature-salinity, hydrostatic and geostrophic balance) to DART, to reduce the spurious waves which may be introduced during the data assimilation process. The effect of the balance operator is validated in both an idealised shallow water model and the ROMS model real case study. In the shallow water model, the geostrophic balance operator eliminates spurious ageostrophic waves and produces a better sea surface height (SSH) and velocity analysis and forecast. Its impact increases as the sea surface height and wind stress increase. In the real case, satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSH are assimilated in the South Australian Sea with 50 ensembles using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF). Assimilating SSH and SST enhances the estimation of SSH and SST in the entire domain, respectively. Assimilation with the balance operator produces a more realistic simulation of surface currents and subsurface temperature profile. The best improvement is obtained when only SSH is assimilated with the balance operator. A case study with a storm suggests that the benefit of the balance operator is of particular importance under high wind stress conditions. Implementing the balance operator could be a general benefit to ocean data assimilation systems.

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances in the lower atmosphere and surface waters of the Chinese Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and Yangtze River estuary.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhen; Tang, Jianhui; Mi, Lijie; Tian, Chongguo; Zhong, Guangcai; Zhang, Gan; Wang, Shaorui; Li, Qilu; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Xie, Zhiyong; Sun, Hongwen

2017-12-01

Polyfluoroalkyl and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), in the forms of neutral polyfluoroalkyl substances in the gas phase of air and ionic perfluoroalkyl substances in the dissolved phase of surface water, were investigated during a sampling campaign in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and Yangtze River estuary in May 2012. In the gas phase, the concentrations of neutral ∑PFASs were within the range of 76-551pg/m 3 . Higher concentrations were observed in the South Yellow Sea. 8:2 fluorotelomer alcohol (FTOH) was the predominant compound as it accounted for 92%-95% of neutral ∑PFASs in all air samples. Air mass backward trajectory analysis indicated that neutral ∑PFASs came mainly from the coast of the Yellow Sea, including the Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces of China, and the coastal region of South Korea. The fluxes of gas phase dry deposition were simulated for neutral PFASs, and neutral ∑PFASs fluxes varied from 0.37 to 2.3pg/m 2 /s. In the dissolved phase of the surface water, concentrations of ionic ∑PFASs ranged from 1.6 to 118ng/L, with the Bohai Sea exhibiting higher concentrations than both the Yellow Sea and the Yangtze River estuary. Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was the predominant compound accounting for 51%-90% of the ionic ∑PFAS concentrations. Releases from industrial and domestic activities as well as the semiclosed geographical conditions increased the level of ionic ∑PFASs in the Bohai Sea. The spatial distributions of perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkane sulfonic acids (PFSAs) were different significantly. The Laizhou Bay was the major source region of PFCAs and the Yangtze River estuary was the major source of PFSAs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Japanese New Altimetry Mission, COMPIRA - Towards High Temporal and Spatial Sampling of Sea Surface Height Measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, N.; Uematsu, A.; Yajima, Y.; Isoguchi, O.

2014-12-01

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is working on a conceptual study of altimeter mission named Coastal and Ocean measurement Mission with Precise and Innovative Radar Altimeter (COMPIRA), which will carry a wide-swath altimeter named Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Height Imaging Oceanic Sensor with Advanced Interferometry (SHIOSAI). Capturing meso/submeso-scale phenomena is one of important objectives of the COMPIRA mission, as well as operational oceanography and fishery. For operational oceanography including coastal forecast, swath of SHIOSAI is selected to be 80 km in left and right sides to maximize temporal and spatial sampling of the sea surface height. Orbit specifications are also designed to be better sampling especially for mid-latitude region. That is, a spatial grid sampling is 5 km and an observation times per revisit period (about 10 days) is 2 to 3 times. In order to meet both sampling frequency and spatial coverage requirements as much as possible, orbit inclination was set relatively low, 51 degrees. Although this sampling frequency is, of course, not enough high to capture time evolution of coastal phenomena, an assimilation process would compensate its time evolution if 2D SSH fields was observed at least once within decal time scale of phenomena. JAXA has launched a framework called "Coastal forecast core team" to aim at developing coastal forecast system through pre-launch activities toward COMPIRA. Assimilation segment as well as satellite and in situ data provision will play an important role on these activities. As a first step, we evaluated effects of ocean current forecast improvement with COMPIRA-simulated wide-swath and high sampling sea surface heights (SSH) data. Simulated SSH data are generated from regional ocean numerical models and the COMPIRA orbit and error specifications. Then, identical twin experiments are conducted to investigate the effect of wide-swath SSH measurements on coastal forecast in the Tohoku Pacific coast region. The experiment shows that simulated sea surface current using COMPIRA data as an input data for assimilation well represents vortical feature, which cannot be reproduced by conventional nadir altimeters.

Ocean Mixed Layer responses to intense meteorological events during HyMeX-SOP1 from a high-resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Bresson, Emilie; Ducrocq, Véronique; Giordani, Hervé; Nuret, Mathieu; Rainaud, Romain; Taupier-Letage, Isabelle

2014-12-01

The western Mediterranean Sea is a source of heat and humidity for the atmospheric low-levels in autumn. Large exchanges take place at the air-sea interface, especially during intense meteorological events, such as heavy precipitation and/or strong winds. The Ocean Mixed Layer (OML), which is quite thin at this time of year (∼ 20 m-depth), evolves rapidly under such intense fluxes. This study investigates the ocean responses under intense meteorological events that occurred during HyMeX SOP1 (5 September-6 November 2012). The OML conditions and tendencies are derived from a high-resolution ocean simulation using the sub-regional eddy-resolving NEMO-WMED36 model (1/36°-resolution), driven at the surface by hourly air-sea fluxes from the AROME-WMED forecasts (2.5 km-resolution). The high space-time resolution of the atmospheric forcing allows the highly variable surface fluxes, which induce rapid changes in the OML, to be well represented and linked to small-scale atmospheric processes. First, the simulation results are compared to ocean profiles from several platforms obtained during the campaign. Then, this study focuses on the short-term OML evolution during three events. In particular, we examine the OML cooling and mixing under strong wind events, potentially associated with upwelling, as well as the surface freshening under heavy precipitation events, producing low-salinity lenses. Tendencies demonstrate the major role of the surface forcing in the temperature and/or salinity anomaly formation. At the same time, mixing [restratification] rapidly occurs. As expected, the sign of this tendency term is very dependent on the local vertical stratification which varies at fine scale in the Mediterranean. It also controls [disables] the vertical propagation. In the Alboran Sea, the strong dynamics redistribute the OML anomalies, sometimes up to 7 days after their formation. Elsewhere, despite local amplitude modulations due to internal wave excitation by strong winds, the integrated effect of the horizontal advection is almost null on the anomalies' spread and decay. Finally, diffusion has a small contribution.

Reduction and analysis of data collected during the electromagnetic tornado experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davisson, L. D.

1976-01-01

Techniques for data processing and analysis are described to support tornado detection by analysis of radio frequency interference in various frequency bands, and sea state determination from short pulse radar measurements. Activities include: strip chart recording of tornado data; the development and implementation of computer programs for digitalization and analysis of the data; data reduction techniques for short pulse radar data, and the simulation of radar returns from the sea surface by computer models.

The Influence of Ocean on Typhoon Nuri (2008)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, J.; Oey, L. Y.; Xu, F.; Lin, Y.; Huang, S. M.; Chang, R.

2014-12-01

The influence of ocean on typhoon Nuri (2008) is investigated in this study using the WRF numerical model. Typhoon Nuri formed over the warm pool of the western North Pacific. The storm traversed west-northwestward and became a Category 3 typhoon over the Kuroshio east of the Luzon Strait and weakened as it moved across South China Sea. Three types of SST: NCEP RTG_SST (Real-time，global，sea surface temperature) GHRsst (Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature) and SST from the ATOP North Pacific ocean model [Oey et al 2014, JPO] are used in WRF to test the effect of ocean on the intensity of typhoon Nuri. The typhoon intensity and track are also compared with simulations using different microphysics schemes but with fixed SST. The results show that thermodynamic control through ocean response is the dominant factor which determines Nuri's intensity. The simulated intensity agrees well with the observed intensity when ATOP SST is used, while using NCEP SST and GHRsst yield errors both in intensity and timing of maximum intensity. Over the Kuroshio, the thicker depth of 26 ℃ from ATOP provides stronger heating for the correct timing of intensification of Nuri. In South China Sea, the storm weakened because of cooled SST through ocean mixing by inertial resonance. A new way of explaining typhoon intensification though PV is proposed.

Simulation on a car interior aerodynamic noise control based on statistical energy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Wang, Dengfeng; Ma, Zhengdong

2012-09-01

How to simulate interior aerodynamic noise accurately is an important question of a car interior noise reduction. The unsteady aerodynamic pressure on body surfaces is proved to be the key effect factor of car interior aerodynamic noise control in high frequency on high speed. In this paper, a detail statistical energy analysis (SEA) model is built. And the vibra-acoustic power inputs are loaded on the model for the valid result of car interior noise analysis. The model is the solid foundation for further optimization on car interior noise control. After the most sensitive subsystems for the power contribution to car interior noise are pointed by SEA comprehensive analysis, the sound pressure level of car interior aerodynamic noise can be reduced by improving their sound and damping characteristics. The further vehicle testing results show that it is available to improve the interior acoustic performance by using detailed SEA model, which comprised by more than 80 subsystems, with the unsteady aerodynamic pressure calculation on body surfaces and the materials improvement of sound/damping properties. It is able to acquire more than 2 dB reduction on the central frequency in the spectrum over 800 Hz. The proposed optimization method can be looked as a reference of car interior aerodynamic noise control by the detail SEA model integrated unsteady computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and sensitivity analysis of acoustic contribution.

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

PubMed Central

Wallace, John M.; Fu, Qiang; Smoliak, Brian V.; Lin, Pu; Johanson, Celeste M.

2012-01-01

A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. PMID:22847408

1/f model for long-time memory of the ocean surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraedrich, Klaus; Luksch, Ute; Blender, Richard

2004-09-01

The 1/f spectrum of the ocean surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific midlatitudes is explained by a simple vertical diffusion model with a shallow mixed layer on top of a deep ocean. The model is forced at the air-sea interface with the total surface heat flux from a 1000 year climate simulation. The analysis reveals the role of ocean advection and substantiates estimates of internal thermal diffusivities.

The Solar Ultraviolet Environment at the Ocean.

PubMed

Mobley, Curtis D; Diffey, Brian L

2018-05-01

Atmospheric and oceanic radiative transfer models were used to compute spectral radiances between 285 and 400 nm onto horizontal and vertical plane surfaces over water. The calculations kept track of the contributions by the sun's direct beam, by diffuse-sky radiance, by radiance reflected from the sea surface and by water-leaving radiance. Clear, hazy and cloudy sky conditions were simulated for a range of solar zenith angles, wind speeds and atmospheric ozone concentrations. The radiances were used to estimate erythemal exposures due to the sun and sky, as well as from radiation reflected by the sea surface and backscattered from the water column. Diffuse-sky irradiance is usually greater than direct-sun irradiance at wavelengths below 330 nm, and reflected and water-leaving irradiance accounts for <20% of the UV exposure on a vertical surface. Total exposure depends strongly on solar zenith angle and azimuth angle relative to the sun. Sea surface roughness affects the UV exposures by only a few percent. For very clear waters and the sun high in the sky, the UV index within the water can be >10 at depths down to two meters and >6 down to 5 m. © 2018 The American Society of Photobiology.

Variability of sea surface height and circulation in the North Atlantic: Forcing mechanisms and linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zeliang; Lu, Youyu; Dupont, Frederic; W. Loder, John; Hannah, Charles; G. Wright, Daniel

2015-03-01

Simulations with a coarse-resolution global ocean model during 1958-2004 are analyzed to understand the inter-annual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic. Analyses of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) suggest relationships among basin-scale variations of sea surface height (SSH) and depth-integrated circulation, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) indices. The linkages between the atmospheric indices and ocean variables are shown to be related to the different roles played by surface momentum and heat fluxes in driving ocean variability. In the subpolar region, variations of the gyre strength, SSH in the central Labrador Sea and the NAO index are highly correlated. Surface heat flux is important in driving variations of SSH and circulation in the upper ocean and decadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Surface momentum flux drives a significant barotropic component of flow and makes a noticeable contribution to the AMOC. In the subtropical region, momentum flux plays a dominant role in driving variations of the gyre circulation and AMOC; there is a strong correlation between gyre strength and SSH at Bermuda.

Regional scale albedo of first year Arctic drift ice during summer melt estimated from synthesis of in situ measurements and airborne imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, Dmitry; Granskog, Mats A.; Hudson, Stephen R.; Pedersen, Christina A.; Karlsen, Tor I.; Gerland, Sebastian

2014-05-01

The paper presents the results of analysis of the radiative properties of first year sea ice in advanced stages of melt. The presented technique is based on the upscaling in situ point measurements of surface albedo to the regional (150 km) spatial scale using aerial photographs of sea ice captured by a helicopter borne camera setup. The sea ice imagery as well as in situ snow and ice data were collected during the eight day ICE12 drift experiment carried out by the Norwegian Polar Institute in the Arctic north of Svalbard at 83.5 N during 27 July-03 August 2012. In total some 100 ground albedo measurements were made on melting sea ice in locations representative of the four main types of sea ice surface identified using the discriminant analysis -based classification technique. Some 11000 images from a total of six ice survey flights adding up to some 770 km of flight tracks covering about 28 km2 of sea ice surface were classified to yield the along-track distributions of four major surface classes: bare ice, dark melt ponds, bright melt ponds and open water. Results demonstrated a relative homogeneity of sea ice cover in the study area allowing for upscaling the local optical measurements to the regional scale. For the typical 10% open water fraction and 25% melt pond coverage, with a ratio of dark to bright ponds of 2 identified from selected images, the aggregate scale surface albedo of the area was estimated to be 0.42(0.40;0.44). The confidence intervals on the estimate were derived using the moving block bootstrap approach applied to the sequences of classified sea ice images and albedo of the four surface classes treated as random variables. Uncertainty in the mean estimates of local albedo from in situ measurements contributed some 65% to the variance of the estimated regional albedo with the remaining variance to be associated with the spatial inhomogeneity of sea ice cover. The results of the study are of relevance for the modeling of sea ice processes in climate simulations. It particularly concerns the period of summer melt when the optical properties of sea ice undergo substantial changes which the existing sea ice models experience most difficulties to accurately reproduce. That phase of a season is especially crucial for climate and ecosystem processes in the polar regions.

Assessing the Importance of the Evaporation-Wind Feedback Mechanism in the Modulation of Simulated Madden-Julian Oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colon, Edward; Lindesay, James; Suarez, Max J.

1998-01-01

An examination of simulated Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) response to active and suppressed air-sea interactions is made using an aquaplanet model employing a realistic representation of the hydrologic cyle. In general, the evaporation-wind feedback (EWF) results from a coupling between tropical zonal surface wind stresses and evaporation anomalies. Recent observational and theoretical studies have questioned the significance of EWF in sustaining the predominantly wavenumber 1 eastward propagating mode commonly attributed to the interaction between large scale convergence and cumulus-scale convection (conditional instability of the second kind, CISK). To ascertain the nature of the EWF dependence on lower boundary conditions and thus quantify its effect on MJO development, a series of numerical experiments were conducted employing various zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) distributions with active and suppressed EWF mechanisms. Results suggest that a correlation exists between tropical SSTs and the efficacy of the EWF in vertically redistributing heat acquired through surface wind stresses. It has been determined that the removal of the EWF is not a crucial factor in the dampening of the simulated MJO at high equatorial SSTs. The additional energy fed into the developing convective mode by the EWF selectively amplifies higher order wave modes in all numerical experiments thus boosting overall variances in oscillatory responses.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtman, Ben P.; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

2017-12-01

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability.

PubMed

Kirtman, Ben P; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

2017-12-01

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

2016-05-01

The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

Nudging the Arctic Ocean to quantify Arctic sea ice feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Evelien; Severijns, Camiel; Bintanja, Richard

2017-04-01

It is well-established that the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 time faster than rest of the planet. One of the great uncertainties in climate research is related to what extent sea ice feedbacks amplify this (seasonally varying) Arctic warming. Earlier studies have analyzed existing climate model output using correlations and energy budget considerations in order to quantify sea ice feedbacks through indirect methods. From these analyses it is regularly inferred that sea ice likely plays an important role, but details remain obscure. Here we will take a different and a more direct approach: we will keep the sea ice constant in a sensitivity simulation, using a state-of -the-art climate model (EC-Earth), applying a technique that has never been attempted before. This experimental technique involves nudging the temperature and salinity of the ocean surface (and possibly some layers below to maintain the vertical structure and mixing) to a predefined prescribed state. When strongly nudged to existing (seasonally-varying) sea surface temperatures, ocean salinity and temperature, we force the sea ice to remain in regions/seasons where it is located in the prescribed state, despite the changing climate. Once we obtain fixed' sea ice, we will run a future scenario, for instance 2 x CO2 with and without prescribed sea ice, with the difference between these runs providing a measure as to what extent sea ice contributes to Arctic warming, including the seasonal and geographical imprint of the effects.

Offshore Floating Wind Turbine-driven Deep Sea Water Pumping for Combined Electrical Power and District Cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sant, T.; Buhagiar, D.; Farrugia, R. N.

2014-06-01

A new concept utilising floating wind turbines to exploit the low temperatures of deep sea water for space cooling in buildings is presented. The approach is based on offshore hydraulic wind turbines pumping pressurised deep sea water to a centralised plant consisting of a hydro-electric power system coupled to a large-scale sea water-cooled air conditioning (AC) unit of an urban district cooling network. In order to investigate the potential advantages of this new concept over conventional technologies, a simplified model for performance simulation of a vapour compression AC unit was applied independently to three different systems, with the AC unit operating with (1) a constant flow of sea surface water, (2) a constant flow of sea water consisting of a mixture of surface sea water and deep sea water delivered by a single offshore hydraulic wind turbine and (3) an intermittent flow of deep sea water pumped by a single offshore hydraulic wind turbine. The analysis was based on one year of wind and ambient temperature data for the Central Mediterranean that is known for its deep waters, warm climate and relatively low wind speeds. The study confirmed that while the present concept is less efficient than conventional turbines utilising grid-connected electrical generators, a significant portion of the losses associated with the hydraulic transmission through the pipeline are offset by the extraction of cool deep sea water which reduces the electricity consumption of urban air-conditioning units.

Changes in the frequency of extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, H. E.; Fiore, A. M.; Fang, Y.; Staehelin, J.

2011-12-01

Over the past few decades, thresholds for national air quality standards, intended to protect public health and welfare, have been lowered repeatedly. At the same time observations, over Europe and the Eastern U.S., demonstrate that extreme air pollution events (high O3 and PM2.5) are typically associated with stagnation events. Recent work showed that in a changing climate high air pollution events are likely to increase in frequency and duration. Within this work we examine meteorological and surface ozone observations from CASTNet over the U.S. and EMEP over Europe and "idealized" simulations with the GFDL AM3 chemistry-climate model, which isolate the role of climate change on air quality. Specifically, we examine an "idealized 1990s" simulation, forced with 20-year mean monthly climatologies for sea surface temperatures and sea ice from observations for 1981-2000, and an "idealized 2090s" simulation forced by the observed climatologies plus the multi-model mean changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice simulated by 19 IPCC AR-4 models under the A1B scenario for 2081-2100. With innovative statistical tools (empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and statistics of extremes (EVT)), we analyze the frequency distribution of past, present and future extreme air pollution events over the Eastern United States and Europe. The upper tail of observed values at individual stations (e.g., within the CASTNet), i.e., the extremes (maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3>60ppb) are poorly described by a Gaussian distribution. However, further analysis showed that applying Peak-Over-Threshold-models, better capture the extremes and allows us to estimate return levels of pollution events above certain threshold values of interest. We next apply EOF analysis to identify regions that vary coherently within the ground-based monitoring networks. Over the United States, the first EOF obtained from the model in both the 1990s and 2090s idealized simulations identifies the Northeast as a region that varies coherently. Correlation analysis reveals that this EOF pattern is most strongly expressed in association with high surface temperature and high surface pressure conditions, consistent with previous work showing that observed O3 episodes over this area reflect the combined impacts of stagnation and increased chemical production. Next steps include the extension of this analysis applying EVT tools to the principal component time series associated with this EOF. The combination of EOF and EVT tools applied to the GFDL AM3 1990s vs. 2090s idealized simulations will enable us to quantify changes in the return levels of air pollution extremes. Therefore the combination of observational data and numerical and statistical models should allow us to identify key driving forces between high air pollution events and to estimate changes in the frequency of such events under different climate change scenarios.

Forcing of global ocean models using an atmospheric boundary layer model: assessing consequences for the simulation of the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, Rafael; Boening, Claus

2015-04-01

Current practice in the atmospheric forcing of ocean model simulations can lead to unphysical behaviours. The problem lies in the bulk formulation of the turbulent air-sea fluxes in conjunction with a prescribed, and unresponsive, atmospheric state as given, e.g., by reanalysis products. This forcing formulation corresponds to assuming an atmosphere with infinite heat capacity, and effectively damps SST anomalies even on basin scales. It thus curtails an important negative feedback between meridional ocean heat transport and SST in the North Atlantic, rendering simulations of the AMOC in such models excessively sensitive to details in the freshwater fluxes. As a consequence, such simulations are known for spurious drift behaviors which can only partially controlled by introducing some (and sometimes strong) unphysical restoring of sea surface salinity. There have been several suggestions during the last 20 years for at least partially alleviating the problem by including some simplified model of the atmospheric boundary layer (AML) which allows a feedback of SST anomalies on the near-surface air temperature and humidity needed to calculate the surface fluxes. We here present simulations with a simple, only thermally active AML formulation (based on the 'CheapAML' proposed by Deremble et al., 2013) implemented in a global model configuration based on NEMO (ORCA05). In a suite of experiments building on the CORE-bulk forcing methodology, we examine some general features of the AML-solutions (in which only the winds are prescribed) in comparison to solutions with a prescribed atmosperic state. The focus is on the North Atlantic, where we find that the adaptation of the atmospheric temperature the simulated ocean state can lead to strong local modifications in the surface heat fluxes in frontal regions (e.g., the 'Northwest Corner'). We particularly assess the potential of the AML-forcing concept for obtaining AMOC-simulations with reduced spurious drift, without employing the traditional remedy of salinity restoring.

Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel climate model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

2018-05-01

A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

Biology and air-sea gas exchange controls on the distribution of carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittner, A.; Gruber, N.; Mix, A. C.; Key, R. M.; Tagliabue, A.; Westberry, T. K.

2013-09-01

Analysis of observations and sensitivity experiments with a new three-dimensional global model of stable carbon isotope cycling elucidate processes that control the distribution of δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the contemporary and preindustrial ocean. Biological fractionation and the sinking of isotopically light δ13C organic matter from the surface into the interior ocean leads to low δ13CDIC values at depths and in high latitude surface waters and high values in the upper ocean at low latitudes with maxima in the subtropics. Air-sea gas exchange has two effects. First, it acts to reduce the spatial gradients created by biology. Second, the associated temperature-dependent fractionation tends to increase (decrease) δ13CDIC values of colder (warmer) water, which generates gradients that oppose those arising from biology. Our model results suggest that both effects are similarly important in influencing surface and interior δ13CDIC distributions. However, since air-sea gas exchange is slow in the modern ocean, the biological effect dominates spatial δ13CDIC gradients both in the interior and at the surface, in contrast to conclusions from some previous studies. Calcium carbonate cycling, pH dependency of fractionation during air-sea gas exchange, and kinetic fractionation have minor effects on δ13CDIC. Accumulation of isotopically light carbon from anthropogenic fossil fuel burning has decreased the spatial variability of surface and deep δ13CDIC since the industrial revolution in our model simulations. Analysis of a new synthesis of δ13CDIC measurements from years 1990 to 2005 is used to quantify preformed and remineralized contributions as well as the effects of biology and air-sea gas exchange. The model reproduces major features of the observed large-scale distribution of δ13CDIC as well as the individual contributions and effects. Residual misfits are documented and analyzed. Simulated surface and subsurface δ13CDIC are influenced by details of the ecosystem model formulation. For example, inclusion of a simple parameterization of iron limitation of phytoplankton growth rates and temperature-dependent zooplankton grazing rates improves the agreement with δ13CDIC observations and satellite estimates of phytoplankton growth rates and biomass, suggesting that δ13C can also be a useful test of ecosystem models.

Importance of ocean mesoscale variability for air-sea interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putrasahan, D. A.; Kamenkovich, I.; Le Hénaff, M.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-06-01

Mesoscale variability of currents in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can affect oceanic heat advection and air-sea heat exchanges, which can influence climate extremes over North America. This study is aimed at understanding the influence of the oceanic mesoscale variability on the lower atmosphere and air-sea heat exchanges. The study contrasts global climate model (GCM) with 0.1° ocean resolution (high resolution; HR) with its low-resolution counterpart (1° ocean resolution with the same 0.5° atmosphere resolution; LR). The LR simulation is relevant to current generation of GCMs that are still unable to resolve the oceanic mesoscale. Similar to observations, HR exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies, while LR has negative correlation. For HR, we decompose lateral advective heat fluxes in the upper ocean into mean (slowly varying) and mesoscale-eddy (fast fluctuations) components. We find that the eddy flux divergence/convergence dominates the lateral advection and correlates well with the SST anomalies and air-sea latent heat exchanges. This result suggests that oceanic mesoscale advection supports warm SST anomalies that in turn feed surface heat flux. We identify anticyclonic warm-core circulation patterns (associated Loop Current and rings) which have an average diameter of 350 km. These warm anomalies are sustained by eddy heat flux convergence at submonthly time scales and have an identifiable imprint on surface turbulent heat flux, atmospheric circulation, and convective precipitation in the northwest portion of an averaged anticyclone.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drinkwater, Mark R.

1999-01-01

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

Intercomparison of Air-Sea Fluxes in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckley, J.; Weller, R. A.; Farrar, J. T.; Tandon, A.

2016-02-01

Heat and momentum exchange between the air and sea in the Bay of Bengal is an important driver of atmospheric convection during the Asian Monsoon. Warm sea surface temperatures resulting from salinity stratified shallow mixed layers trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms. In this study, we compare atmospheric reanalysis flux products to air-sea flux values calculated from shipboard observations from four cruises and an air-sea flux mooring in the Bay of Bengal as part of the Air-Sea Interactions in the Northern Indian Ocean (ASIRI) experiment. Comparisons with months of mooring data show that most long timescale reanalysis error arises from the overestimation of longwave and shortwave radiation. Ship observations and select data from the air-sea flux mooring reveals significant errors on shorter timescales (2-4 weeks) which are greatly influenced by errors in shortwave radiation and latent and sensible heat. During these shorter periods, the reanalyses fail to properly show sharp decreases in air temperature, humidity, and shortwave radiation associated with mesoscale convective systems. Simulations with the Price-Weller-Pinkel (PWP) model show upper ocean mixing and deepening mixed layers during these events that effect the long term upper ocean stratification. Mesoscale convective systems associated with cloudy skies and cold and dry air can reduce net heat into the ocean for minutes to a few days, significantly effecting air-sea heat transfer, upper ocean stratification, and ocean surface temperature and salinity.

Micromechanics of sea ice gouge in shear zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, Peter; Scourfield, Sally; Lishman, Ben

2015-04-01

The deformation of sea ice is a key control on the Arctic Ocean dynamics. Shear displacement on all scales is an important deformation process in the sea cover. Shear deformation is a dominant mechanism from the scale of basin-scale shear lineaments, through floe-floe interaction and block sliding in ice ridges through to the micro-scale mechanics. Shear deformation will not only depend on the speed of movement of ice surfaces but also the degree that the surfaces have bonded during thermal consolidation and compaction. Recent observations made during fieldwork in the Barents Sea show that shear produces a gouge similar to a fault gouge in a shear zone in the crust. A range of sizes of gouge are exhibited. The consolidation of these fragments has a profound influence on the shear strength and the rate of the processes involved. We review experimental results in sea ice mechanics from mid-scale experiments, conducted in the Hamburg model ship ice tank, simulating sea ice floe motion and interaction and compare these with laboratory experiments on ice friction done in direct shear, and upscale to field measurement of sea ice friction and gouge deformation made during experiments off Svalbard. We find that consolidation, fragmentation and bridging play important roles in the overall dynamics and fit the model of Sammis and Ben-Zion, developed for understanding the micro-mechanics of rock fault gouge, to the sea ice problem.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Baker, R.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Baker, R. D.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent.

PubMed

Vinnikov; Robock; Stouffer; Walsh; Parkinson; Cavalieri; Mitchell; Garrett; Zakharov

1999-12-03

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.

Molecular dynamics simulations of the surface tension and structure of salt solutions and clusters.

PubMed

Sun, Lu; Li, Xin; Hede, Thomas; Tu, Yaoquan; Leck, Caroline; Ågren, Hans

2012-03-15

Sodium halides, which are abundant in sea salt aerosols, affect the optical properties of aerosols and are active in heterogeneous reactions that cause ozone depletion and acid rain problems. Interfacial properties, including surface tension and halide anion distributions, are crucial issues in the study of the aerosols. We present results from molecular dynamics simulations of water solutions and clusters containing sodium halides with the interatomic interactions described by a conventional force field. The simulations reproduce experimental observations that sodium halides increase the surface tension with respect to pure water and that iodide anions reach the outermost layer of water clusters or solutions. It is found that the van der Waals interactions have an impact on the distribution of the halide anions and that a conventional force field with optimized parameters can model the surface tension of the salt solutions with reasonable accuracy. © 2012 American Chemical Society

The Role of Ocean Eddies in the Southern Ocean Response to Observed Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgen, S. I.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is crucial to understanding the possible future response to a changing climate. This is a principal region where energy is conveyed to the ocean by the westerly winds and it is here that mesoscale ocean eddies field dominate meridional heat and momentum transport. Compared to the Arctic, the Antarctic and the surrounding SO have a "delayed warming" anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) response. Understanding the role of the ocean dynamics in modulating the mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interactions in the SO in a fully coupled regime is crucial to efforts aimed at predicting the consequences of the warming and variability to the climate system. The response of model run at multiple resolutions (eddy permitting, eddy resolving) to both GHG forcing and historical forcing are examined in NCAR CCSM4 with four experiments. The first simulation, 0.5° atmosphere coupled to ocean and sea ice components with 1° resolution (LR). The second simulation uses the identical atmospheric model but coupled to 0.1° ocean and sea ice component models (HR). For the third and fourth experiments, the global ocean is simulated for LR an HR models, and a climate change scenario are produced by applying a fixed (present-day) CO2 concentration. The analysis focuses on the last 55 years of two individual 155 year simulations. We discuss results from a set of state-of-art model experiments in comparison with observational estimates and explore mechanisms by examining sea surface temperature, westerly winds, surface heat flux, ocean heat transport. In LR simulations, the patterns and mechanisms of SO changes under GHG forcing are similar to those over the historical period: warming is damped southward of the ACC and enhanced to the north, however major changes between the HR simulations are explored. We find that in recent decades the Southern Annual Mode has shown a distinct upward trend, the result of an anthropogenic global warming. Also, HR simulations show that strengthening of the SAM and associated surface wind stress have been invoked to posit enhancement in the strength of the upwelling of the MOC, and increases eddy activity of the ACC. The results also indicate that eddy-permitting models are not able to capture the eddy-driven SST response since ocean dynamics is playing crucial role in the HR simulation but not in the LR models.

Skeleton growth under uniformly distributed force conditions: producing spherical sea urchins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Polly; Kambli, Ankita; Stone, Johnny

2017-10-01

Sea urchin skeletons, or tests, comprise rigid calcareous plates, interlocked and sutured together with collagen fibres. The tests are malleable due to mutability in the collagen fibres that loosen during active feeding, yielding interplate gaps. We designed an extraterrestrial simulation experiment wherein we subjected actively growing sea urchins to one factor associated with zero-gravity environments, by growing them under conditions in which reactionary gravitational forces were balanced, and observed how their tests responded. Preventing tests from adhering to surfaces during active growth produced more-spherical bodies, realized as increased height-to-diameter ratios. Sea urchin tests constitute ideal systems for obtaining data that could be useful in extraterrestrial biology research, particularly in how skeletons grow under altered-gravity conditions.

Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon Using Comprehensive Atmosphere-land Interactions, in the Absence of Two-way Air-sea Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Shin, D. W.; Cocke, Steven; Kang, Sung-Dae; Kim, Hae-Dong

2011-01-01

Community Land Model version 2 (CLM2) as a comprehensive land surface model and a simple land surface model (SLM) were coupled to an atmospheric climate model to investigate the role of land surface processes in the development and the persistence of the South Asian summer monsoon. Two-way air-sea interactions were not considered in order to identify the reproducibility of the monsoon evolution by the comprehensive land model, which includes more realistic vertical soil moisture structures, vegetation and 2-way atmosphere-land interactions at hourly intervals. In the monsoon development phase (May and June). comprehensive land-surface treatment improves the representation of atmospheric circulations and the resulting convergence/divergence through the improvements in differential heating patterns and surface energy fluxes. Coupling with CLM2 also improves the timing and spatial distribution of rainfall maxima, reducing the seasonal rainfall overestimation by approx.60 % (1.8 mm/d for SLM, 0.7 mm/dI for CLM2). As for the interannual variation of the simulated rainfall, correlation coefficients of the Indian seasonal rainfall with observation increased from 0.21 (SLM) to 0.45 (CLM2). However, in the mature monsoon phase (July to September), coupling with the CLM2 does not exhibit a clear improvement. In contrast to the development phase, latent heat flux is underestimated and sensible heat flux and surface temperature over India are markedly overestimated. In addition, the moisture fluxes do not correlate well with lower-level atmospheric convergence, yielding correlation coefficients and root mean square errors worse than those produced by coupling with the SLM. A more realistic representation of the surface temperature and energy fluxes is needed to achieve an improved simulation for the mature monsoon period.

Key parameters of the sediment surface morphodynamics in an estuary - An assessment of model solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2018-05-01

Large-scale geomorphological evolution of an estuarine system was simulated by means of a hybrid estuarine sedimentation model (HESM) applied to the Guadiana Estuary, in Southwest Iberia. The model simulates the decadal-scale morphodynamics of the system under environmental forcing, using a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters, constrained by empirical knowledge of estuarine sedimentary dynamics and topography. The key controlling parameters of the model are bed friction (f), current velocity power of the erosion rate function (N), and sea-level rise rate. An assessment of sensitivity of the simulated sediment surface elevation (SSE) change to these controlling parameters was performed. The model predicted the spatial differentiation of accretion and erosion, the latter especially marked in the mudflats within mean sea level and low tide level and accretion was mainly in a subtidal channel. The average SSE change mutually depended on both the friction coefficient and power of the current velocity. Analysis of the average annual SSE change suggests that the state of intertidal and subtidal compartments of the estuarine system vary differently according to the dominant processes (erosion and accretion). As the Guadiana estuarine system shows dominant erosional behaviour in the context of sea-level rise and sediment supply reduction after the closure of the Alqueva Dam, the most plausible sets of parameter values for the Guadiana Estuary are N = 1.8 and f = 0.8f0, or N = 2 and f = f0, where f0 is the empirically estimated value. For these sets of parameter values, the relative errors in SSE change did not exceed ±20% in 73% of simulation cells in the studied area. Such a limit of accuracy can be acceptable for an idealized modelling of coastal evolution in response to uncertain sea-level rise scenarios in the context of reduced sediment supply due to flow regulation. Therefore, the idealized but cost-effective HESM model will be suitable for estimating the morphological impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine systems on a decadal timescale.

Development of the Transport Class Model (TCM) Aircraft Simulation From a Sub-Scale Generic Transport Model (GTM) Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueschen, Richard M.

2011-01-01

A six degree-of-freedom, flat-earth dynamics, non-linear, and non-proprietary aircraft simulation was developed that is representative of a generic mid-sized twin-jet transport aircraft. The simulation was developed from a non-proprietary, publicly available, subscale twin-jet transport aircraft simulation using scaling relationships and a modified aerodynamic database. The simulation has an extended aerodynamics database with aero data outside the normal transport-operating envelope (large angle-of-attack and sideslip values). The simulation has representative transport aircraft surface actuator models with variable rate-limits and generally fixed position limits. The simulation contains a generic 40,000 lb sea level thrust engine model. The engine model is a first order dynamic model with a variable time constant that changes according to simulation conditions. The simulation provides a means for interfacing a flight control system to use the simulation sensor variables and to command the surface actuators and throttle position of the engine model.

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

The climate response of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nezio, Pedro N.; Timmermann, Axel; Tierney, Jessica E.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Rosenbloom, Nan; Mapes, Brian; Neale, Rich; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Montenegro, Alvaro

2016-06-01

Growing climate proxy evidence suggests that changes in sea level are important drivers of tropical climate change on glacial-interglacial timescales. These paleodata suggest that rainfall patterns over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are highly sensitive to the landmass configuration of the Maritime Continent and that lowered sea level contributed to large-scale drying during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 21,000 years B.P.). Using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2 (CESM1), we investigate the mechanisms by which lowered sea level influenced the climate of the IPWP during the LGM. The CESM1 simulations show that, in agreement with previous hypotheses, changes in atmospheric circulation are initiated by the exposure of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Ocean dynamical processes amplify the changes in atmospheric circulation by increasing the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean. The coupled mechanism driving this response is akin to the Bjerknes feedback and results in a large-scale climatic reorganization over the Indian Ocean with impacts extending from east Africa to the western tropical Pacific. Unlike exposure of the Sunda shelf, exposure of Sahul shelf and the associated changes in surface albedo play a key role because of the positive feedback. This mechanism could explain the pattern of dry (wet) eastern (western) Indian Ocean identified in climate proxies and LGM simulations. However, this response also requires a strengthened SST gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, a pattern that is not evident in marine paleoreconstructions. Strategies to resolve this issue are discussed.

Assessment of current effect on waves in a semi-enclosed basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Bergamasco, A.

2012-04-01

The wave-current interaction process in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea is studied using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, which is used to exchange data fields between the ocean model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) and the wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). The 2-way data transfer between circulation and wave models is synchronous with ROMS providing current fields, free surface elevation, and bathymetry to SWAN. In particular, the 3-D current profiles are averaged using a formulation that integrates the near-surface velocity over a depth controlled by the spectral mean wave number. This coupling procedure is carried out up to coastal areas by means of an offline grid nesting. The parent grid covers the whole Adriatic Sea and has a horizontal resolution of 2.0 km, whereas the child grid resolution increases to 0.5 km but it is limited to the northern Adriatic Sea (Gulf of Venice), where the current effect on waves is investigated. The most frequent winds blowing on the Adriatic Sea are the so-called Bora and Sirocco which cause high waves in the Adriatic Sea, although Bora waves are generally fetch-limited. In fact, Bora winds blow orthogonal to the main basin axis (approximately aligned with the NW-SE direction), while Sirocco has large spatial scale being a southeasterly wind. For the numerical simulations, the meteorological forcings are provided by the operational meteorological model COSMO-I7, which is the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium. During the analysis period, the simulated wind, current and wave are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower located off the Venice littoral. Wave heights and sea surface winds are also compared with satellite-derived data. To account for the variability of sea states during a storm, the expected maximum individual wave height in a sea storm with a given history is also considered. During intense storms, the effect of coupling on wave heights is resulting in variations of the wave heights up to 15%, with some areas experiencing increase or decrease of wave spectral energy for opposite and following currents respectively. The study is part of the activities developed in the European Union (EU) funded FIELD_AC project (Fluxes, Interactions and Environment at the Land-ocean boundary. Downscaling, Assimilation and Coupling), which is conceived with the goal to better identify the most significant natural processes in coastal areas, and to address their impact on the coastal and nearshore dynamics by including them in a complete numerical prediction suite.

Impact of river discharge on the California coastal ocean circulation and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, J.; Chao, Y.; Farrara, J. D.; Zhang, H.

2016-12-01

A real-time California coastal ocean nowcast and forecast system is used to quantify the impact of river discharge on the California coastal ocean circulation and variability. River discharge and freshwater runoff is monitored by an extensive network of stream gages maintained through the U.S. Geological Survey, that offers archived stream flow records as well as real-time datasets. Of all the rivers monitored by the USGS, 25 empty into the Pacific Ocean and contribute a potential source of runoff data. Monthly averages for the current water year yield discharge estimates as high as 6,000 cubic meters per second of additional freshwater input into our present model. Using Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), we performed simulations from October 2015 to May 2016 with and without the river discharge. Results of these model simulations are compared with available observations including both in situ and satellite. Particular attention is paid to the salinity simulation. Validation is done with comparisons to sea glider data available through Oregon State University and UC San Diego, which provides depth profiles along the California coast during this time period. Additional validation is performed through comparisons with sea surface salinity measurements from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. Continued testing for previous years, e.g. between 2011 and 2015, is being made using the Aquarius sea surface salinity data. Discharge data collected by the USGS stream gages provides a necessary source of freshwater input that must be accounted for. Incorporating a new runoff source produces a more robust model that generates improved forecasts. Following validation with available sea glider and satellite data, the enhanced model can be adapted to real-time forecasting.

Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in a heterogeneous coastal aquifer of Bremerhaven, Germany: A three-dimensional modeling study.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Ptak, Thomas

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce sea level rise in the German Bight, which is part of the North Sea, Germany. Climate change may also modify river discharge of the river Weser flowing into the German Bight, which will alter both pressure and salinity distributions in the river Weser estuary. To study the long-term interaction between sea level rise, discharge variations, a storm surge and coastal aquifer flow dynamics, a 3D seawater intrusion model was designed using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integral system considering complexities such as variable-density flow, variably saturated flow, irregular boundary conditions, irregular land surface and anthropogenic structures (e.g., dyke, drainage canals, water gates). The simulated steady-state groundwater flow of the year 2009 is calibrated using PEST. In addition, four climate change scenarios are simulated based on the calibrated model: (i) sea level rise of 1m, (ii) the salinity of the seaside boundary increases by 4 PSU (Practical Salinity Units), (iii) the salinity of the seaside boundary decreases by 12 PSU, and (iv) a storm surge with partial dyke failure. Under scenarios (i) and (iv), the salinized area expands several kilometers further inland during several years. Natural remediation can take up to 20 years. However, sudden short-term salinity changes in the river Weser estuary do not influence the salinized area in the coastal aquifer. The obtained results are useful for coastal engineering practices and drinking water resource management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Numerical Study of Tropical Sea-Air Interactions Using a Cloud Resolving Model Coupled with an Ocean Mixed-Layer Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, Chung-Lin; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Johnson, Dan; Simpson, Joanne; Li, Xiaofan; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Coupling a cloud resolving model (CRM) with an ocean mixed layer (OML) model can provide a powerful tool for better understanding impacts of atmospheric precipitation on sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. The objective of this study is twofold. First, by using the three dimensional (3-D) CRM-simulated (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE) diabatic source terms, radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the OML model, the respective impact of individual component on upper ocean heat and salt budgets are investigated. Secondly, a two-way air-sea interaction between tropical atmospheric climates (involving atmospheric radiative-convective processes) and upper ocean boundary layer is also examined using a coupled two dimensional (2-D) GCE and OML model. Results presented here, however, only involve the first aspect. Complete results will be presented at the conference.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2015-04-01

Coastal upwelling is important to marine ecosystems and human activities. It transports nutrient-rich deep water mass that supports marine biological productivity. In this study, we aim to characterize the large-scale climate forcings that drive upwelling along the western Arabian Sea coast. Studies based on ocean sediments suggest that there is a link between this coastal upwelling system and the Indian summer monsoon. However, a more direct method is needed to examine the influence of various forcings on upwelling. For this purpose, we analyse a high-resolution (about 10 km) global ocean simulation (denoted STORM), which is based on the MPI-OM model developed by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg driven by the global meteorological reanalysis NCEP over the period 1950-2010. This very high spatial resolution allows us to identify characteristics of the coastal upwelling system. We compare the simulated upwelling velocity of STORM with two traditional upwelling indices: along-shore wind speed and sea surface temperature. The analysis reveals good consistency between these variables, with high correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind speed (r=0.85) as well as coastal sea surface temperature (r=-0.77). To study the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling we analyse both temporal and spatial co-variability between upwelling velocity and the Indian summer monsoon index. The spatial analysis shows that the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling is concentrated along the coast, as expected. However, somewhat unexpectedly, the temporal correlation between the coastal upwelling and the monsoon index is rather weak (r=0.26). Also, the spatial structure of upwelling in the Arabian Sea as revealed by a Principal Component Analysis is rather rich, indicating that factors other than the Monsoon are also important drivers of upwelling. In addition, no detectable trend in our coastal upwelling is found in the simulation that would match the prediction of a strengthening of upwelling under anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Intraseasonal to Interannual Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from Eddy-Resolving Simulations and Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-12

2007 , a period of intensive field observations in the northern South China Sea. Internal solitary waves are detected in the plots of the surface...of cold, fresh water [see Long- worth and Bryden, 2007 ; Richardson, 2008, for historical review]. Because of its large heat and freshwater transports...al., 2008]. It may also have triggered the recent rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice [Serreze et al., 2007 ] and Greenland glaciers [Holland et al

Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen; Hiemstra, Christopher

2009-01-01

Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrISmore » were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.« less

The Response of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian Seas to a Summer Mistral Event: A Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

some extent. As well as the classical damping effect of surface friction on synop- tic storms via Ekman spindown (Holton, 2004), more recent stud...ies have suggested that surface stress can influence interior potential vorticity and thus storm growth (Adamson et al., 2006), and surface heat...the model simulations. Hence the mechanisms of SST response are similar to that found previously in tropical cyclones and extratropical low

Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

2014-05-01

The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent

2015-01-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Assessing air-sea interaction in the evolving NASA GEOS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J. B.

2014-12-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Response of air-sea carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.

2010-07-01

A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

An increase in aerosol burden due to the land-sea warming contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, T.; Allen, R.; Randles, C. A.

2017-12-01

Climate models simulate an increase in most aerosol species in response to warming, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This increase in aerosol burden is related to a decrease in wet removal, primarily due to reduced large-scale precipitation. Here, we show that the increase in aerosol burden, and the decrease in large-scale precipitation, is related to a robust climate change phenomenon—the land/sea warming contrast. Idealized simulations with two state of the art climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (NCAR CAM5) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 3 (GFDL AM3), show that muting the land-sea warming contrast negates the increase in aerosol burden under warming. This is related to smaller decreases in near-surface relative humidity over land, and in turn, smaller decreases in large-scale precipitation over land—especially in the NH midlatitudes. Furthermore, additional idealized simulations with an enhanced land/sea warming contrast lead to the opposite result—larger decreases in relative humidity over land, larger decreases in large-scale precipitation, and larger increases in aerosol burden. Our results, which relate the increase in aerosol burden to the robust climate projection of enhanced land warming, adds confidence that a warmer world will be associated with a larger aerosol burden.

Dynamic behaviour of natural oil droplets through the water column in deep-water environment: the case of the Lower Congo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jatiault, R.; Dhont, D.; Loncke, L.; Durrieu De Madron, X.; Dubucq, D.; Channelliere, C.; Bourrin, F.

2017-12-01

Key words: Hydrocarbon seepage, Oil Slick, Lower Congo Basin, Underwater deflection, Deep-water Pockmark, Ascent speedThe space-borne imagery provides a significant means to locate active oil seeps and to estimate the expelled volume in the marine environment. The analysis of numerous overlapping satellite images revealed an abundant volume of 4400 m3 of oil naturally reaching the sea surface per year, expelled from more than a hundred seep sites through the Lower Congo Basin. The active seepage area is located in the distal compressional province of the basin where salt napes and squeezed diapirs. The integration of current data was used to link accurately sea surface manifestations of natural oil leakages with active fluid flow features on the seafloor. A mooring with ADCPs (Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers) distributed throughout the water column provided an efficient calibration tool to evaluate the horizontal deflection of oil droplets. Using a Eulerian propagation model that considered a range of probable ascent speeds, we estimated the oil migration pathways through the water column using two different approaches. The first approach consisted in simulating the backwards trajectory of oil droplets using sea surface oil slicks locations and concomitant current measurements. The second method analyzed the spatial spreading of the surfacing signatures of natural oil slicks based on 21 years of satellite observations. The location of the surfacing points of oil droplets at the sea surface is restricted to a circle of 2.5 km radius around the release point at the seafloor. Both approaches provided a range of ascent speeds of oil droplets between 3 to 8 cm.s-1. The low deflection values validate the near-vertical links between the average surfacing area of oil slicks at the sea surface with specific seafloor disturbances (i.e. pockmarks or mounds) known to expel fluids.

Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min

2018-03-01

Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Multi-method Quantification of Sea-ice Production in Weddell Sea Polynyas (Antarctica)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinemann, G.; Zentek, R.; Stulic, L.; Paul, S.; Preusser, A.; Timmermann, R.

2017-12-01

Coastal polynyas occur frequently during winter in the Weddell Sea, which leads to strong sea ice production and to the formation of a highly saline water mass which is considered to be a major source of bottom water and one of the main drivers of the circulation beneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. Thus the quantification of sea ice production in Weddell Sea polynyas is of vital interest for understanding water mass modification in this region. We use a multi-method approach to quantify sea ice production. Method 1) is based on the energy balance simulated by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with 15 / 5 km resolution for the period 2002-2015 (nested in ERA-Interim data). Daily sea ice concentrations were taken from microwave satellite measurements. Method 2) is based on remote sensing using MODIS thermal infrared data at a resolution of 1-2km and a surface energy balance model taking atmospheric data from different reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA55, NCEP2) as well as data of CCLM. Method 3) relies on simulations using the Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM). FESOM is run on a global grid with a resolution of about 5 km along the coast of the Weddell Sea using atmospheric forcing from reanalyses (ERA-Interim (80km) and CFSR (38km)) as well as from CCLM. In addition, an experiment with assimilation of MODIS thin ice retrievals was conducted. Estimates of polynya area (POLA) and sea ice production (IP) from the different methods are presented. The MODIS-based method with ERA-Interim shows the largest POLA as well as the largest IP for the Ronne polynya (RO, POLA / IP = 2800 km² / 29 km³/a) and for the polynya off Brunt Ice Shelf (BR, 3400 km² / 30 km³/a). Sensitivity to the choice of atmosphere data is high. In particular, too low temperatures in JRA55 cause very large ice production events and a strong overestimation of IP rates. Estimates based on CCLM simulations agree generally well with MODIS/ERA-Interim. FESOM yields a generally larger ice production and shows also a pronounced sensitivity to the atmospheric forcing, but the effect on POLA and IP depends on the region. For BR the FESOM simulations show much larger POLA and IP than other methods.

Impact of physical permafrost processes on hydrological change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Beer, Christian; Ekici, Altug

2015-04-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact projected hydrological changes over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Observed SST and sea ice for 1979-1999 are used to consider induced changes in the simulated hydrological cycle. In addition, simulated SST and sea ice are taken from a MPI-ESM simulation conducted for CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The corresponding simulations with ECHAM6-JSBACH are used to assess differences in projected hydrological changes induced by the permafrost relevant processes.

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, T.

2015-12-01

As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%).

Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Lars; Heinemann, Günther

2014-05-01

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions.

Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere: The Influence of External Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Felicitas; Matthes, Katja

2013-04-01

The dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere is dominated by planetary waves that are generated in the troposphere by orography and land-sea contrasts. These waves travel upward into the stratosphere where they either dissipate or are reflected downward to impact the troposphere again. Through the interaction with the zonal mean flow planetary waves can induce stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., conditions during NH winter where the stratospheric polar vortex is disturbed so that the zonal mean zonal wind in the NH stratospheric jet becomes easterly and the polar cap meridional temperature gradient reverses. Since strong major SSWs can propagate down into the troposphere and even affect surface weather, SSWs present a strong and clear manifestation of the dynamical coupling in the stratosphere-troposphere system. We will investigate the influence of some external forcings, namely sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), on these coupling processes. Thereby we are interested in how the distribution of SSWs in the winter months changes due to the different forcings, whether the events evolve differently, and whether they show differences in their preconditioning, e.g. a different wave geometry. We will also investigate whether and how vertical reflective surfaces in the stratosphere, which can reflect upward propagating planetary waves, influence the evolution of SSWs. To address these questions, we performed a set of model simulations with NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), a coupled model system including an interactive ocean (POP2), land (CLM4), sea ice (CICE) and atmosphere (NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)) component. Our control experiment is a 140-year simulation with the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean version of CESM. A second experiment is a 55-year simulation with only CESM's atmospheric component WACCM, a fully interactive chemistry-climate model extending from the Earth's surface through the thermosphere (about 140 km), with underlying climatological SSTs obtained from the coupled CESM control run. A third 55-year simulation is performed without the nudging of the equatorial QBO. All three simulations develop under conditions where greenhouse gases are held constant at the 1960 level. In a fourth simulations, the greenhouse gases follow the RCP8.5 scenario. From the differences of the individual simulations to the control experiment we can estimate the respective roles of SSTs, the QBO and anthropogenic greenhouse gases for the stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The model results will be compared to the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset.

File Specification for the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run, Ganymed Release Non-Hydrostatic 7-km Global Mesoscale Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

da Silva, Arlindo M.; Putman, William; Nattala, J.

2014-01-01

This document describes the gridded output files produced by a two-year global, non-hydrostatic mesoscale simulation for the period 2005-2006 produced with the non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). In addition to standard meteorological parameters (wind, temperature, moisture, surface pressure), this simulation includes 15 aerosol tracers (dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon), O3, CO and CO2. This model simulation is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice, daily volcanic and biomass burning emissions, as well as high-resolution inventories of anthropogenic sources. A description of the GEOS-5 model configuration used for this simulation can be found in Putman et al. (2014). The simulation is performed at a horizontal resolution of 7 km using a cubed-sphere horizontal grid with 72 vertical levels, extending up to to 0.01 hPa (approximately 80 km). For user convenience, all data products are generated on two logically rectangular longitude-latitude grids: a full-resolution 0.0625 deg grid that approximately matches the native cubed-sphere resolution, and another 0.5 deg reduced-resolution grid. The majority of the full-resolution data products are instantaneous with some fields being time-averaged. The reduced-resolution datasets are mostly time-averaged, with some fields being instantaneous. Hourly data intervals are used for the reduced-resolution datasets, while 30-minute intervals are used for the full-resolution products. All full-resolution output is on the model's native 72-layer hybrid sigma-pressure vertical grid, while the reduced-resolution output is given on native vertical levels and on 48 pressure surfaces extending up to 0.02 hPa. Section 4 presents additional details on horizontal and vertical grids. Information of the model surface representation can be found in Appendix B. The GEOS-5 product is organized into file collections that are described in detail in Appendix C. Additional details about variables listed in this file specification can be found in a separate document, the GEOS-5 File Specification Variable Definition Glossary. Documentation about the current access methods for products described in this document can be found on the GEOS-5 Nature Run portal: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/G5NR. Information on the scientific quality of this simulation will appear in a forthcoming NASA Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation to be available from http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/tm/.

New Techniques for Radar Altimetry of Sea Ice and the Polar Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, T. W. K.; Kwok, R.; Egido, A.; Smith, W. H. F.; Cullen, R.

2017-12-01

Satellite radar altimetry has proven to be a valuable tool for remote sensing of the polar oceans, with techniques for estimating sea ice thickness and sea surface height in the ice-covered ocean advancing to the point of becoming routine, if not operational, products. Here, we explore new techniques in radar altimetry of the polar oceans and the sea ice cover. First, we present results from fully-focused SAR (FFSAR) altimetry; by accounting for the phase evolution of scatterers in the scene, the FFSAR technique applies an inter-burst coherent integration, potentially over the entire duration that a scatterer remains in the altimeter footprint, which can narrow the effective along track resolution to just 0.5m. We discuss the improvement of using interleaved operation over burst-more operation for applying FFSAR processing to data acquired by future missions, such as a potential CryoSat follow-on. Second, we present simulated sea ice retrievals from the Ka-band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn), the instrument that will be launched on the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission in 2021, that is capable of producing swath images of surface elevation. These techniques offer the opportunity to advance our understanding of the physics of the ice-covered oceans, plus new insight into how we interpret more conventional radar altimetry data in these regions.

Retrieval of the thickness of undeformed sea ice from C-band compact polarimetric SAR images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Dierking, W.; Zhang, J.; Meng, J. M.; Lang, H. T.

2015-10-01

In this paper we introduce a parameter for the retrieval of the thickness of undeformed first-year sea ice that is specifically adapted to compact polarimetric SAR images. The parameter is denoted as "CP-Ratio". In model simulations we investigated the sensitivity of CP-Ratio to the dielectric constant, thickness, surface roughness, and incidence angle. From the results of the simulations we deduced optimal conditions for the thickness retrieval. On the basis of C-band CTLR SAR data, which were generated from Radarsat-2 quad-polarization images acquired jointly with helicopter-borne sea ice thickness measurements in the region of the Sea of Labrador, we tested empirical equations for thickness retrieval. An exponential fit between CP-Ratio and ice thickness provides the most reliable results. Based on a validation using other compact polarimetric SAR images from the same region we found a root mean square (rms) error of 8 cm and a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.92 for the retrieval procedure when applying it on level ice of 0.9 m mean thickness.

SPH Modelling of Sea-ice Pack Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staroszczyk, Ryszard

2017-12-01

The paper is concerned with the problem of sea-ice pack motion and deformation under the action of wind and water currents. Differential equations describing the dynamics of ice, with its very distinct mateFfigrial responses in converging and diverging flows, express the mass and linear momentum balances on the horizontal plane (the free surface of the ocean). These equations are solved by the fully Lagrangian method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). Assuming that the ice behaviour can be approximated by a non-linearly viscous rheology, the proposed SPH model has been used to simulate the evolution of a sea-ice pack driven by wind drag stresses. The results of numerical simulations illustrate the evolution of an ice pack, including variations in ice thickness and ice area fraction in space and time. The effects of different initial ice pack configurations and of different conditions assumed at the coast-ice interface are examined. In particular, the SPH model is applied to a pack flow driven by a vortex wind to demonstrate how well the Lagrangian formulation can capture large deformations and displacements of sea ice.

Does Southern Ocean Surface Forcing Shape the Global Ocean Overturning Circulation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shantong; Eisenman, Ian; Stewart, Andrew L.

2018-03-01

Paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was shallower at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than its preindustrial (PI) depth. Previous studies have suggested that this shoaling necessarily accompanies Antarctic sea ice expansion at the LGM. Here the influence of Southern Ocean surface forcing on the AMOC depth is investigated using ocean-only simulations from a state-of-the-art climate model with surface forcing specified from the output of previous coupled PI and LGM simulations. In contrast to previous expectations, we find that applying LGM surface forcing in the Southern Ocean and PI surface forcing elsewhere causes the AMOC to shoal only about half as much as when LGM surface forcing is applied globally. We show that this occurs because diapycnal mixing renders the Southern Ocean overturning circulation more diabatic than previously assumed, which diminishes the influence of Southern Ocean surface buoyancy forcing on the depth of the AMOC.

ESPC Coupled Global Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

active, and cloud- nucleating aerosols into NAVGEM for use in long-term simulations and forecasts and for use in the full coupled system. APPROACH...cloud- nucleating aerosols into NAVGEM for use in long-term simulations and forecasts for ESPC applications. We are relying on approaches, findings...function. For sea salt we follow NAAPS and use a source that depends on ocean surface winds and relative humidity . In lieu of the relevant

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.; Shie, C. -L.; Lau, W. K. -M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David O' C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

A geochemical model of the Peru Basin deep-sea floor—and the response of the system to technical impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

König, Iris; Haeckel, Matthias; Lougear, André; Suess, Erwin; Trautwein, Alfred X.

A geochemical model of the Peru Basin deep-sea floor, based on an extensive set of field data as well as on numerical simulations, is presented. The model takes into account the vertical oscillations of the redox zonation that occur in response to both long-term (glacial/interglacial) and short-term (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale) variations in the depositional flux of organic matter. Field evidence of reaction between the pore water NO 3- and an oxidizable fraction of the structural Fe(II) in the clay mineral content of the deep-sea sediments is provided. The conditions of formation and destruction of reactive clay Fe(II) layers in the sea floor are defined, whereby a new paleo-redox proxy is established. Transitional NO 3- profile shapes are explained by periodic contractions and expansions of the oxic zone (ocean bottom respiration) on the ENSO time scale. The near-surface oscillations of the oxic-suboxic boundary constitute a redox pump mechanism of major importance with respect to diagenetic trace metal enrichments and manganese nodule formation, which may account for the particularly high nodule growth rates in this ocean basin. These conditions are due to the similar depth ranges of both the O 2 penetration in the sea floor and the bioturbated high reactivity surface layer (HRSL), all against the background of ENSO-related large variations in depositional C org flux. Removal of the HRSL in the course of deep-sea mining would result in a massive expansion of the oxic surface layer and, thus, the shut down of the near-surface redox pump for centuries, which is demonstrated by numerical modeling.

The path to CAM6: coupled simulations with CAM5.4 and CAM5.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogenschutz, Peter A.; Gettelman, Andrew; Hannay, Cecile; Larson, Vincent E.; Neale, Richard B.; Craig, Cheryl; Chen, Chih-Chieh

2018-01-01

This paper documents coupled simulations of two developmental versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) towards CAM6. The configuration called CAM5.4 introduces new microphysics, aerosol, and ice nucleation changes, among others to CAM. The CAM5.5 configuration represents a more radical departure, as it uses an assumed probability density function (PDF)-based unified cloud parameterization to replace the turbulence, shallow convection, and warm cloud macrophysics in CAM. This assumed PDF method has been widely used in the last decade in atmosphere-only climate simulations but has never been documented in coupled mode. Here, we compare the simulated coupled climates of CAM5.4 and CAM5.5 and compare them to the control coupled simulation produced by CAM5.3. We find that CAM5.5 has lower cloud forcing biases when compared to the control simulations. Improvements are also seen in the simulated amplitude of the Niño-3.4 index, an improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, subtropical surface wind stresses, and double Intertropical Convergence Zone biases. Degradations are seen in Amazon precipitation as well as slightly colder sea surface temperatures and thinner Arctic sea ice. Simulation of the 20th century results in a credible simulation that ends slightly colder than the control coupled simulation. The authors find this is due to aerosol indirect effects that are slightly stronger in the new version of the model and propose a solution to ameliorate this. Overall, in these early coupled simulations, CAM5.5 produces a credible climate that is appropriate for science applications and is ready for integration into the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) next-generation climate model.

Increased Surface Wind Speeds Follow Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioduszewski, J.; Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, M.; Holland, M. M.; Landrum, L.

2017-12-01

Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic Basin, due to changes in atmospheric stability and/or baroclinicity. Prior research on future Arctic wind changes is limited and has focused mainly on the practical impacts on wave heights in certain seasons. Here we attempt to identify patterns and likely mechanisms responsible for surface wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic, particularly those associated with sea ice loss in the marginal ice zone. Sea level pressure, near-surface (10 m) and upper-air (850 hPa) wind speeds, and lower-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) were analyzed for the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 to facilitate comparison between a present-day and future climate. Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 90th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by over 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (locally over 20 ºC warmer in autumn and winter). A muted pattern of these future changes is simulated in CESM-LE historical runs from 1920-2005. The enhanced winds near the surface are mostly collocated with weaker winds above the boundary layer during autumn and winter, implying more vigorous vertical mixing and a drawdown of high-momentum air.The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal hazards and the potential for a positive feedback with sea ice by generating higher winds and greater wave activity. Our findings suggest that increasing winds, along with retreating sea ice and thawing permafrost, represent another important contributor to the growing problem of Arctic coastal erosion.

Modelling the thermosteric contribution to global and regional sea-level rise during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singarayer, Joy; Stone, Emma; Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Gregory, Jonathan

2014-05-01

Global sea level during the last interglacial is likely to have been between 5.5 and 9m above present (Dutton and Lambeck, 2012). Recent calculations, taking into account latest NEEM ice core information, suggest that Greenland would probably not have contributed more than 2.2m to this (Stone et al, 2013), implying a considerable contribution from Antarctica. Previous studies have suggested a significant loss from the West Antarctic ice-sheet (e.g. Holden et al, 2010), which could be initiated following a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and resultant warming in the Southern Ocean. Here, model simulations with FAMOUS and HadCM3 have been performed of the last interglacial under various scenarios of reduced Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet configurations, and with and without collapsed AMOC. Thermal expansion and changes in regional density structure (resulting from ocean circulation changes) can also influence sea level, in addition to ice mass effects discussed thus far. The HadCM3 and FAMOUS simulations will be used to estimate the contribution to global and regional sea level change in interglacials from the latter two factors using a similar methodology to the IPCC TAR/AR4 estimations of future sea level rise (Gregory and Lowe, 2000). The HadCM3 and FAMOUS both have a rigid lid in their ocean model, and consequently a fixed ocean volume. Thermal expansion can, however, be calculated as a volume change from in-situ density (a prognostic variable from the model). Relative sea surface topography will then be estimated from surface pressure gradients and changes in atmospheric pressure. Dutton A., and Lambeck K., 2013. Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial. Science, 337, 216-219 Gregory J.M. and Lowe J.A., 2000. Predictions of global and regional sea-level using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment. GRL, 27, 3069-3072 Holden P. et al., 2010. Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials. Clim. Past, 6, 431-443 Stone E.J., et al., 2013. Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621-639

Mitigation of global cooling by stratospheric chemistry feedbacks in a simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, S.; Kodera, K.; Deushi, M.; Kitoh, A.; Mizuta, R.; Yoshida, K.; Murakami, S.; Adachi, Y.; Yoden, S.

2017-12-01

A series of numerical simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyr B.P.) climate are performed by using an Earth System Model of the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency to investigate the impact of stratospheric ozone profile on the surface climate with decreased CO2 condition and different orbital parameters. The contribution of the interactive ozone chemistry reveals a significant anomaly of +0.5 K (approximately 20 %) in the tropics and up to +1.5 K in high-latitudes for the annual mean zonal mean surface air temperature compared with those of the corresponding experiments with a prescribed ozone profile for preindustrial simulation of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the tropics, this mitigation of global cooling is related to longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven increases in lower stratospheric ozone and related increase in stratospheric water vapor and related decrease in cirrus cloud. The relations are opposite signs to and consistent with those of a global warming simulation. In high-latitudes, the polar amplification of mitigation of cooling associated with the change of sea ice area that is the same sign to and consistent with our previous paleoclimate simulation in the mid-Holocene (6 kyr B.P.). We recommend that climate models include sea ice and ozone profile that are consistent with CO2 concentration.

The Impact of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperatures on the Simulated Nocturnal Florida Marine Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaCasse, Katherine M.; Splitt, Michael E.; Lazarus, Steven M.; Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

High- and low-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis products are used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for May 2004 for short-term forecasts over Florida and surrounding waters. Initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by a combination of observations, large-scale model output, and analysis products. The impact of using a 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SST composite on subsequent evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is assessed through simulation comparisons and limited validation. Model results are presented for individual simulations, as well as for aggregates of easterly- and westerly-dominated low-level flows. The simulation comparisons show that the use of MODIS SST composites results in enhanced convergence zones. earlier and more intense horizontal convective rolls. and an increase in precipitation as well as a change in precipitation location. Validation of 10-m winds with buoys shows a slight improvement in wind speed. The most significant results of this study are that 1) vertical wind stress divergence and pressure gradient accelerations across the Florida Current region vary in importance as a function of flow direction and stability and 2) the warmer Florida Current in the MODIS product transports heat vertically and downwind of this heat source, modifying the thermal structure and the MABL wind field primarily through pressure gradient adjustments.

Effects of Explicit Urban-Canopy Representation on Local Circulations Above a Tropical Mega-City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores Rojas, José L.; Pereira Filho, Augusto J.; Karam, Hugo A.; Vemado, Felipe; Masson, Valéry

2018-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is coupled with the tropical town energy budget (tTEB) scheme to analyze the effects of the urban canopy circulation over the metropolitan area of São Paulo and its interactions with the sea breeze and mountain-valley circulation in the eastern state of São Paulo, Brazil. Two experiments are carried out for the typical sea-breeze event occurring on 22 August 2014 under weak synoptic forcing and clear-sky conditions: (a) a control run with the default semi-desert surface parametrization and; (b) a tTEB run for the urban canopy of São Paulo. A realistic land-use database over the south-eastern domain of Brazil is used in the downscaling simulation to a horizontal grid resolution of 3 km. Our results indicate that ARPS effectively simulates features of the nighttime and early morning land-breeze circulation, which is affected by the surrounding hills and the nocturnal heat island of São Paulo. By early afternoon, the south-eastern sea-breeze circulation moves inland perpendicular to the upslope of the Serra do Mar scarp, which generates a line of moisture convergence and updrafts further inland. Later, the convergence line reaches São Paulo and interacts with the circulation arising from the urban heat island (UHI), which increases the moisture convergence and strength of updrafts. The surface energy balance indicates that the UHI is caused by large sensible heat storage within the urban canopy during the day, which is later released in the afternoon and at night. The simulations are verified with available radiosonde and surface weather station data, land-surface-temperature estimates from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, as well as the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis databases. The three-dimensional geometry of the urban canyons within the tTEB scheme consistently improves the thermodynamically-induced circulation over São Paulo.

A lower trophic ecosystem model including iron effects in the Okhotsk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okunishi, Takeshi; Kishi, Michio J.; Ono, Yukiko; Yamashita, Toshihiko

2007-09-01

We applied a three-dimensional ecosystem-physical coupled model including iron the effect to the Okhotsk Sea. In order to clarify the sources of iron, four dissolved iron compartments, based on the sources of supply, were added to Kawamiya et al.'s [1995, An ecological-physical coupled model applied to Station Papa. Journal of Oceanography, 51, 635-664] model (KKYS) to create our ecosystem model (KKYS-Fe). We hypothesized that four processes supply iron to sea water: atmospheric loadings from Northeastern Asia, input from the Amur River, dissolution from sediments and regeneration by zooplankton and bacteria. We simulated one year, from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2001, using both KKYS-Fe and KKYS. KKYS could not reproduce the surface nitrate distribution after the spring bloom, whereas KKYS-Fe agreed well with observations in the northwestern Pacific because it includes iron limitation of phytoplankton growth. During the spring bloom, the main source of iron at the sea surface is from the atmosphere. The contribution of riverine iron to the total iron utilized for primary production is small in the Okhotsk Sea. Atmospheric deposition, the iron flux from sediment and regeneration of iron in the water column play important roles in maintaining high primary production in the Okhotsk Sea.

Incorporating realistic surface longwave spectral emissivity in the CESM and the impact on simulated current climate and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Huang, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Feldman, D.; Kuo, C.

2016-12-01

As of today, most state-of-the-art GCMs still assumes blackbody surface in their longwave radiation scheme. Recent works by Chen et al. (2014) and Feldman et al. (2014) have suggested that the surface spectral emissivity can impact the simulated radiation budget and climate change in a discernible way, especially in high latitudes. Using a recently developed global emissivity database that covers both far-IR and mid-IR, we incorporated the LW surface spectral emissivity into the radiation scheme of the CESM. Effort has been made to ensure a consistent treatment of surface upward LW broadband flux in both the land module and the atmospheric module of the CESM, an important aspect overlooked by the previous study. Then we assess impacts of the inclusion of surface spectral emissivity on simulated mean-state climate and climate changes by carrying out two sets of parallel runs. The first pair of experiments uses the standard slab-ocean CESM v1.1.1 to run two experiments: one control run using forcings at year 2000 level and one sensitivity run abruptly doubling the CO2. The second pair of experiment setup is identical to the first one but using the CESM that we have modified (Surface emissivity is a prognostic variable in our second pair of experiments). The current climate simulation results show that the Sahara desert region in the modified CESM has a warmer surface temperature than in the standard CESM by 2-3K. Over the high-latitude regions, the modified CESM tends to have a colder surface temperature than the standard CESM by 1-2.5K. As a result, the climatological sea ice coverage in the modified CESM is 8% more than it in the standard CESM in both Polar Regions. All these differences are statistically significant. As for simulated climate change in response to a doubling of CO2, the Arctic region in the modified CESM warms consistently faster than in the standard CESM by 1-2K while the Antarctic region shows a non-uniform pattern of differences between two models. Differences in the changes of sea ice coverage between two models show a zonally-uniform dipole pattern over both polar oceans. The reasons for such differences and its linkage with the change of surface spectral emissivity are further explained.

Latitudinal and Longitudinal Basin-scale Surface Salinity Contrasts and Freshwater Transport by Ocean Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidov, D.; Haupt, B. J.

2003-12-01

The role of sea surface salinity (SSS) contrasts in maintaining vigorous global ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) is revisited. Relative importance of different generalizations of sea surface conditions in climate studies is explored. In numerical experiments using an ocean general circulation model, we have aggregated the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and SSS in several different ways: we used observed unchanged SST with SSS taken as constant (34.25 psu) everywhere; SST unchanged, and SSS zonally averaged globally, i.e., in the whole World Ocean; SST averaged globally, and SSS unchanged; SST zonally averaged globally and SSS zonally averaged basin-wide in individual basins, i.e., in the Atlantic, Indian, Pacific, and Southern Oceans separately; and, finally, both SST and SSS zonally averaged in individual basins. Global zonal averaging removes all longitudinal differences in sea surface climatology among ocean basins. However, latitudinal profiles of zonally averaged parameters preserve the main character of large-scale equator-to-pole sea surface variability. Basin-wide zonal averaging does an even better job of preserving latitudinal distributions within each basin. The results of the experiments could hardly be anticipated a priory. Surprisingly, SST could be used as a 2-D field, or as a zonally-averaged field without much difference in the THC dynamics. Moreover, SST could be averaged either globally, or basin-wide, and it also did not change the overall character of THC. At the same time, THC responded vigorously to how the SSS has been changed. It appeared that the THC structure with the globally averaged SST and basin-wide averaged SSS was very close to the one obtained in the control run (control run operates with 2-D observed SST and SSS). Our main conclusion is that ocean-wide inter-basin sea surface salinity contrasts serve as the major controlling element in global thermohaline circulation. Thermal inter-basin contrasts, as well as longitudinal variation in SSS, are less important than latitudinal thermal gradients and inter-basin salinity contrasts. Details of SSS also decrease in importance as soon as its inter-basin contrasts are retained. This is especially important for paleoclimate and future climate simulations, as only the large-scale inter-basin contrasts of the sea surface conditions really matter.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound, assuming negligible longwave radiation and albedo near the maximum observed for freshly fallen snow. Even under this scenarios preliminary estimates suggest tens of centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Real-Time Ocean Prediction System for the East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrior, H. V.

2016-02-01

The primary objective of the research work reported in this abstract was to develop a Realtime Environmental model for Ocean Dispersion and Impact (as part of an already in-place Decision Support System) for the purpose of radiological safety for the area along Kalpakkam (East Indian) coast. This system involves combining real-time ocean observations with numerical models of ocean processes to provide hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of currents, tides and waves. In this work we present the development of an Automated Coupled Atmospheric - Ocean Model (we call it IIT-CAOM) used to forecast the sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity etc of the Bay of Bengal region under the influence of transient and unsteady atmospheric conditions. This method uses a coupling of Atmosphere and Ocean model. The models used here are the WRF for atmospheric simulations and POM for the ocean counterpart. It has a 3 km X 3 km resolution. This Coupled Model uses GFS (Global Forecast System) Data or FNL (Final Analyses) Data as initial conditions for jump-starting the atmospheric model. The Atmospheric model is run first thus extracting air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The heat flux subroutine computes the net heat flux, using above mentioned parameters data. The net heat flux feeds to the ocean model by simply adding net heat flux subroutine to the ocean model code without changing the model original structure. The online forecast of the IIT-CAOM is currently available in the web. The whole system has been automized and runs without any more manual support. The IIT-CAOM simulations have been carried out for Kalpakkam region, which is located on the East coast of India, about 70 km south of Chennai in Tamilnadu State and a three day forecast of sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, etc have been obtained.

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) investigation of the Red Sea circulation: 2. Three-dimensional circulation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2003-03-01

The three-dimensional circulation of the Red Sea is studied using a set of Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) simulations. The model performance is tested against the few available observations in the basin and shows generally good agreement with the main observed features of the circulation. The main findings of this analysis include an intensification of the along-axis flow toward the coasts, with a transition from western intensified boundary flow in the south to eastern intensified flow in the north, and a series of strong seasonal or permanent eddy-like features. Model experiments conducted with different forcing fields (wind-stress forcing only, surface buoyancy forcing only, or both forcings combined) showed that the circulation produced by the buoyancy forcing is stronger overall and dominates the wind-driven part of the circulation. The main circulation pattern is related to the seasonal buoyancy flux (mostly due to the evaporation), which causes the density to increase northward in the basin and produces a northward surface pressure gradient associated with the downward sloping of the sea surface. The response of the eastern boundary to the associated mean cross-basin geostrophic current depends on the stratification and β-effect. In the northern part of the basin this results in an eastward intensification of the northward surface flow associated with the presence of Kelvin waves while in the south the traditional westward intensification due to Rossby waves takes place. The most prominent gyre circulation pattern occurs in the north where a permanent cyclonic gyre is present that is involved in the formation of Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW). Beneath the surface boundary currents are similarly intensified southward undercurrents that carry the RSOW to the sill to flow out of the basin into the Indian Ocean.

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takhsha, Maryam; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Laprise, René; Hernández-Díaz, Leticia; Winger, Katja

2017-10-01

As part of the CORDEX project, the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) is used over the Arctic for climate simulations driven by reanalyses and by the MPI-ESM-MR coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CRCM5 shows adequate skills capturing general features of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) for all seasons. Evaluating 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation is more problematic, because of inconsistencies between observational reference datasets over the Arctic that suffer of a sparse distribution of weather stations. In our study, we additionally investigated the effect of large-scale spectral nudging (SN) on the hindcast simulation driven by reanalyses. The analysis shows that SN is effective in reducing the spring MSLP bias, but otherwise it has little impact. We have also conducted another experiment in which the CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperature (SST) is empirically corrected and used as lower boundary conditions over the ocean for an atmosphere-only global simulation (AGCM), which in turn provides the atmospheric lateral boundary conditions to drive the CRCM5 simulation. This approach, so-called 3-step approach of dynamical downscaling (CGCM-AGCM-RCM), which had considerably improved the CRCM5 historical simulations over Africa, exhibits reduced impact over the Arctic domain. The most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

Simulated interaction between freshwater and saltwater and effects of ground-water pumping and sea-level change, lower Cape Cod aquifer system, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs, Cape Cod Commission, and the Towns of Eastham, Provincetown, Truro, and Wellfleet, began an investigation in 2000 to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the four freshwater lenses of the Lower Cape Cod aquifer system and to assess the effects of changing ground-water pumping, recharge conditions, and sea level on ground-water flow in Lower Cape Cod, Massachusetts. A numerical flow model was developed with the computer code SEAWAT to assist in the analysis of freshwater and saltwater flow. Model simulations were used to determine water budgets, flow directions, and the position and movement of the freshwater/saltwater interface. Model-calculated water budgets indicate that approximately 68 million gallons per day of freshwater recharge the Lower Cape Cod aquifer system with about 68 percent of this water moving through the aquifer and discharging directly to the coast, 31 percent flowing through the aquifer, discharging to streams, and then reaching the coast as surface-water discharge, and the remaining 1 percent discharging to public-supply wells. The distribution of streamflow varies greatly among flow lenses and streams; in addition, the subsurface geology greatly affects the position and movement of the underlying freshwater/saltwater interface. The depth to the freshwater/saltwater interface varies throughout the study area and is directly proportional to the height of the water table above sea level. Simulated increases in sea level appear to increase water levels and streamflows throughout the Lower Cape Cod aquifer system, and yet decrease the depth to the freshwater/saltwater interface. The resulting change in water levels and in the depth to the freshwater/saltwater interface from sea-level rise varies throughout the aquifer system and is controlled largely by non-tidal freshwater streams. Pumping from large-capacity municipal-supply wells increases the potential for effects on surface-water bodies, which are affected by pumping and wastewater-disposal locations and rates. Pumping wells that are upgradient of surface-water bodies potentially capture water that would otherwise discharge to these surface-water bodies, thereby reducing streamflow and pond levels. Kettle-hole ponds, such as Duck Pond in Wellfleet, that are near the top of a freshwater flow lens, appear to be more susceptible to changing pumping and recharge conditions than kettle-hole ponds closer to the coast or near discharge boundaries, such as the Herring River.

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

1994-01-01

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled general circulation models

DOE PAGES

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Gualdi, Silvio; Legutke, Stephanie; ...

2005-06-29

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on timescales of 30–70 days. During the boreal winter/spring, it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. The space–time structure of the MJO is analyzed using simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model run with observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and coupled to three different ocean models. The coherence of the eastward propagation of MJO convection is sensitive to the ocean model to which ECHAM4 is coupled. For ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, models for which ~100 years of daily data is available, Montemore » Carlo sampling indicates that their metrics of eastward propagation are different at the 1% significance level. The flux-adjusted coupled simulations, ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, maintain a more realistic mean-state, and have a more realistic MJO simulation than the nonadjusted scale interaction experiment (SINTEX) coupled runs. The SINTEX model exhibits a cold bias in Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature of ~0.5°C. This cold bias affects the distribution of time-mean convection over the tropical eastern hemisphere. Furthermore, the eastward propagation of MJO convection in this model is not as coherent as in the two models that used flux adjustment or when compared to an integration of ECHAM4 with prescribed observed SST. This result suggests that simulating a realistic basic state is at least as important as air–sea interaction for organizing the MJO. While all of the coupled models simulate the warm (cold) SST anomalies that precede (succeed) the MJO convection, the interaction of the components of the net surface heat flux that lead to these anomalies are different over the Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4/OPYC model in which the atmospheric model is run at a horizontal resolution of T42, has eastward propagating zonal wind anomalies and latent heat flux anomalies. However, the integrations with ECHO-G and SINTEX, which used T30 atmospheres, produce westward propagation of the latent heat flux anomalies, contrary to reanalysis. Furthermore, it is suggested that the differing ability of the models to represent the near-surface westerlies over the Indian Ocean is related to the different horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric model employed.« less

Impact of Equatorial Waves on the Variability of Upwelling Process Along West Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, K. R.; Nigam, T.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

Coastal upwelling is a seasonal phenomenon along the south eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) due to favourable wind setup during Indian Summer Monsoon Season (June-September). This upwelling brings subsurface cold and nutrient rich water to the surface layers. The cold water transported northward by the altered along shore current of west coast of India in the post-monsoon season. The different climatological forcing of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and normal years were utilised to simulate the upwelling off the west coast of India using a three dimensional Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Strength of upwelling and the northward transport were found to be weaken for positive IOD simulations as compared to normal years. Analysis suggests that the meridional wind stress weakening resulted into a decrease in strength of West India Coastal Current (WICC) and, therefore, reduced magnitude of offshore Ekman transport. The mixed layer heat budget calculation also supports the findings by showing dominated vertical process in comparison to net heat flux effect. The post-monsoon northward transport of cold water was found to be correlated with the coastally trapped downwelling Kelvin waves. These waves are the only remote forcing from the Bay of Bengal that reaches to the south-eastern Arabian Sea during the months of October-December. The composite of sea surface height anomalies for the positive IOD and normal years shows that the downwelling Kelwin wave was absent during October-December.

Scattering by Artificial Wind and Rain Roughened Water Surfaces at Oblique Incidences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craeye, C.; Sobieski, P. W.; Bliven, L. F.

1997-01-01

Rain affects wind retrievals from scatterometric measurements of the sea surface. To depict the additional roughness caused by rain on a wind driven surface, we use a ring-wave spectral model. This enables us to analyse the rain effect on K(u) band scatterometric observations from two laboratory experiments. Calculations based on the small perturbation method provide good simulation of scattering measurements for the rain-only case, whereas for combined wind and rain cases, the boundary perturbation method is appropriate.

Diagnosing Air-Sea Interactions on Intraseasonal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMott, C. A.

2014-12-01

What is the role of ocean coupling in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)? Consensus thinking holds that the essential physics of the MJO involve interactions between convection, atmospheric wave dynamics, and boundary layer and free troposphere moisture. However, many modeling studies demonstrate improved MJO simulation when an atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) is coupled to an ocean model, so feedbacks from the ocean are probably not negligible. Assessing the importance and processes of these feedbacks is challenging for at least two reasons. First, observations of the MJO only sample the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system; there is no "uncoupled" MJO in nature. Second, the practice of analyzing the MJO in uncoupled and coupled GCMs (CGCMs) involves using imperfect tools to study the problem. Although MJO simulation is improving in many models, shortcomings remain in both AGCMs and CGCMs, making it difficult to determine if changes brought about through coupling reflect critical air-sea interactions or are simply part of the collective idiosyncracies of a given model. For the atmosphere, ocean feedbacks from intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variations are communicated through their effects on surface fluxes of heat and moisture. This presentation suggests a set of analysis tools for diagnosing the impact of an interactive ocean on surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, including their mean, variance, spectral characteristics, and phasing with respect to wind, SST, and MJO convection. The diagnostics are demonstrated with application to several CMIP5 models, and reveal a variety of responses to coupled ocean feedbacks.

A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R

2010-01-01

The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditionalmore » and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.« less

Fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from the North Pacific to the Arctic: Field measurements and fugacity model simulation.

PubMed

Ke, Hongwei; Chen, Mian; Liu, Mengyang; Chen, Meng; Duan, Mengshan; Huang, Peng; Hong, Jiajun; Lin, Yan; Cheng, Shayen; Wang, Xuran; Huang, Mengxue; Cai, Minggang

2017-10-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have accumulated ubiquitously inArctic environments, where re-volatilization of certain organic pollutants as a result of climate change has been observed. To investigate the fate of semivolatile organic compounds in the Arctic, dissolved PAHs in the surface seawaters from the temperate Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean, as well as a water column in the Arctic Ocean, were collected during the 4th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2010. The total concentrations of seven dissolved PAHs in surface water ranged from 1.0 to 5.1 ng L -1 , decreasing with increasing latitude. The vertical profile of PAHs in the Arctic Ocean was generally characteristic of surface enrichment and depth depletion, which emphasized the role of vertical water stratification and particle settling processes. A level III fugacity model was developed in the Bering Sea under steady state assumption. Model results quantitatively simulated the transfer processes and fate of PAHs in the air and water compartments, and highlighted a summer air-to-sea flux of PAHs in the Bering Sea, which meant that the ocean served as a sink for PAHs, at least in summer. Acenaphthylene and acenaphthene reached equilibrium in air-water diffusive exchange, and any perturbation, such as a rise in temperature, might lead to disequilibrium and remobilize these compounds from their Arctic reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial variability of the Black Sea surface temperature from high resolution modeling and satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizyuk, Artem; Senderov, Maxim; Korotaev, Gennady

2016-04-01

Large number of numerical ocean models were implemented for the Black Sea basin during last two decades. They reproduce rather similar structure of synoptical variability of the circulation. Since 00-s numerical studies of the mesoscale structure are carried out using high performance computing (HPC). With the growing capacity of computing resources it is now possible to reconstruct the Black Sea currents with spatial resolution of several hundreds meters. However, how realistic these results can be? In the proposed study an attempt is made to understand which spatial scales are reproduced by ocean model in the Black Sea. Simulations are made using parallel version of NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean). A two regional configurations with spatial resolutions 5 km and 2.5 km are described. Comparison of the SST from simulations with two spatial resolutions shows rather qualitative difference of the spatial structures. Results of high resolution simulation are compared also with satellite observations and observation-based products from Copernicus using spatial correlation and spectral analysis. Spatial scales of correlations functions for simulated and observed SST are rather close and differs much from satellite SST reanalysis. Evolution of spectral density for modelled SST and reanalysis showed agreed time periods of small scales intensification. Using of the spectral analysis for satellite measurements is complicated due to gaps. The research leading to this results has received funding from Russian Science Foundation (project № 15-17-20020)

Numerical study of electromagnetic scattering from one-dimensional nonlinear fractal sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Tao; He, Chao; William, Perrie; Kuang, Hai-Lan; Zou, Guang-Hui; Chen, Wei

2010-02-01

In recent years, linear fractal sea surface models have been developed for the sea surface in order to establish an electromagnetic backscattering model. Unfortunately, the sea surface is always nonlinear, particularly at high sea states. We present a nonlinear fractal sea surface model and derive an electromagnetic backscattering model. Using this model, we numerically calculate the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) of a nonlinear sea surface. Comparing the averaged NRCS between linear and nonlinear fractal models, we show that the NRCS of a linear fractal sea surface underestimates the NRCS of the real sea surface, especially for sea states with high fractal dimensions, and for dominant ocean surface gravity waves that are either very short or extremely long.

Fate of microplastics and mesoplastics carried by surface currents and wind waves: A numerical model approach in the Sea of Japan.

PubMed

Iwasaki, Shinsuke; Isobe, Atsuhiko; Kako, Shin'ichiro; Uchida, Keiichi; Tokai, Tadashi

2017-08-15

A numerical model was established to reproduce the oceanic transport processes of microplastics and mesoplastics in the Sea of Japan. A particle tracking model, where surface ocean currents were given by a combination of a reanalysis ocean current product and Stokes drift computed separately by a wave model, simulated particle movement. The model results corresponded with the field survey. Modeled results indicated the micro- and mesoplastics are moved northeastward by the Tsushima Current. Subsequently, Stokes drift selectively moves mesoplastics during winter toward the Japanese coast, resulting in increased contributions of mesoplastics south of 39°N. Additionally, Stokes drift also transports micro- and mesoplastics out to the sea area south of the subpolar front where the northeastward Tsushima Current carries them into the open ocean via the Tsugaru and Soya straits. Average transit time of modeled particles in the Sea of Japan is drastically reduced when including Stokes drift in the model. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Sea Breeze Initiated Precipitation Over Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo

1999-01-01

Land surface-atmosphere interaction plays a key role in the development of summertime convection and precipitation over the Florida peninsula. Land-ocean temperature contrasts induce sea-breeze circulations along both coasts. Clouds develop along sea-breeze fronts, and significant precipitation can occur during the summer months. However, other factors such as soil moisture distribution and coastline curvature may modulate the timing, location, and intensity of sea breeze initiated precipitation. Here, we investigate the role of soil moisture and coastline curvature on Florida precipitation using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data from the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE) collected on 27 July 1991. Our numerical simulations suggest that a realistic distribution of soil moisture influences the location and intensity of precipitation but not the timing of precipitation. In contrast, coastline curvature affects the timing and location of precipitation but has little influence on peak rainfall rates. However, both factors (soil moisture and coastline curvature) are required to fully account for observed rainfall amounts.

Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shonk, Jonathan K. P.; Guilyardi, Eric; Toniazzo, Thomas; Woolnough, Steven J.; Stockdale, Tim

2018-02-01

The development of systematic biases in climate models used in operational seasonal forecasting adversely affects the quality of forecasts they produce. In this study, we examine the initial evolution of systematic biases in the ECMWF System 4 forecast model, and isolate aspects of the model simulations that lead to the development of these biases. We focus on the tendency of the simulated intertropical convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific to drift northwards by between 0.5° and 3° of latitude depending on season. Comparing observations with both fully coupled atmosphere-ocean hindcasts and atmosphere-only hindcasts (driven by observed sea-surface temperatures), we show that the northward drift is caused by a cooling of the sea-surface temperature on the Equator. The cooling is associated with anomalous easterly wind stress and excessive evaporation during the first twenty days of hindcast, both of which occur whether air-sea interactions are permitted or not. The easterly wind bias develops immediately after initialisation throughout the lower troposphere; a westerly bias develops in the upper troposphere after about 10 days of hindcast. At this point, the baroclinic structure of the wind bias suggests coupling with errors in convective heating, although the initial wind bias is barotropic in structure and appears to have an alternative origin.

Simulation of 1986 South China Sea Monsoon with a Regional Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W. -K.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Jia, Y.; Juang, H.; Wetzel, P.; Qian, J.; Chen, C.

1999-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) project is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the IndoChina/South China Sea (SCS) region. The Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system, a state of the art atmospheric numerical model designed to simulate regional weather and climate, has been successfully coupled to the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. The original MM5 model (without PLACE) includes the option for either a simple slab soil model or a five-layer soil model (MRF) in which the soil moisture availability evolves over time. However, the MM5 soil models do not include the effects of vegetation, and thus important physical processes such as evapotranspiration and interception are precluded. The PLACE model incorporates vegetation type and has been shown in international comparisons to accurately predict evapotranspiration and runoff over a wide variety of land surfaces. The coupling of MM5 and PLACE creates a numerical modeling system with the potential to more realistically simulate atmosphere and land surface processes including land-sea interaction, regional circulations such as monsoons, and flash flood events. In addition, the Penn State/NCAR MM5 atmospheric modeling system has been: (1) coupled to the Goddard Ice Microphysical scheme; (2) coupled to a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) scheme; (3) modified to ensure cloud budget balance; and (4) incorporated initialization with the Goddard EOS data sets at NASA/Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The improved MM5 with two nested domains (60 and 20 km horizontal resolution) was used to simulate convective activity over IndoChina and the South China Sea, during the monsoon season, from May 6 to May 20, 1986. The model results captured several dominant observed features, such as twin cyclones, a depression system over the Bay of Bengal, strong south-westerly winds over IndoChina before and during the on-set of convection over the SCS, and a vortex over the SCS. Two additional MM5 runs with different land process models, Blackadar and MRF, were performed, and their results are compared to the run with PLACE. The preliminary results indicate that the MM5 results using PLACE and Blackadar are in very good agreement, but the results using MRF do not contain the south-westerly wind over IndoChina prior to the on-set of convection over the SCS.

High resolution modeling of dense water formation in the north-western Mediterranean during winter 2012-2013: Processes and budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estournel, Claude; Testor, Pierre; Damien, Pierre; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Marsaleix, Patrick; Conan, Pascal; Kessouri, Faycal; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Coppola, Laurent; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Belamari, Sophie; Mortier, Laurent; Ulses, Caroline; Bouin, Marie-Noelle; Prieur, Louis

2016-07-01

The evolution of the stratification of the north-western Mediterranean between summer 2012 and the end of winter 2013 was simulated and compared with different sets of observations. A summer cruise and profiler observations were used to improve the initial conditions of the simulation. This improvement was crucial to simulate winter convection. Variations of some parameters involved in air - sea exchanges (wind, coefficient of transfer used in the latent heat flux formulation, and constant additive heat flux) showed that the characteristics of water masses and the volume of dense water formed during convection cannot be simply related to the time-integrated buoyancy budget over the autumn - winter period. The volume of dense water formed in winter was estimated to be about 50,000 km3 with a density anomaly larger than 29.113 kg m-3. The effect of advection and air/sea fluxes on the heat and salt budget of the convection zone was quantified during the preconditioning phase and the mixing period. Destratification of the surface layer in autumn occurs through an interaction of surface and Ekman buoyancy fluxes associated with displacements of the North Balearic front bounding the convection zone to the south. During winter convection, advection stratifies the convection zone: from December to March, the absolute value of advection represents 58 % of the effect of surface buoyancy fluxes.

Short-term sea ice forecasts with the RASM-ESRL coupled model: A testbed for improving simulations of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the marginal ice zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Hughes, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Persson, O. P. G.

2015-12-01

The dramatic decrease of Arctic sea-ice has led to a new Arctic sea-ice paradigm and to increased commercial activity in the Arctic Ocean. NOAA's mission to provide accurate and timely sea-ice forecasts, as explicitly outlined in the National Ocean Policy and the U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region, needs significant improvement across a range of time scales to improve safety for human activity. Unfortunately, the sea-ice evolution in the new Arctic involves the interaction of numerous physical processes in the atmosphere, ice, and ocean, some of which are not yet understood. These include atmospheric forcing of sea-ice movement through stress and stress deformation; atmospheric forcing of sea-ice melt and formation through energy fluxes; and ocean forcing of the atmosphere through new regions of seasonal heat release. Many of these interactions involve emerging complex processes that first need to be understood and then incorporated into forecast models in order to realize the goal of useful sea-ice forecasting. The underlying hypothesis for this study is that errors in simulations of "fast" atmospheric processes significantly impact the forecast of seasonal sea-ice retreat in summer and its advance in autumn in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). We therefore focus on short-term (0-20 day) ice-floe movement, the freeze-up and melt-back processes in the MIZ, and the role of storms in modulating stress and heat fluxes. This study uses a coupled ocean-atmosphere-seaice forecast model as a testbed to investigate; whether ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupling improves forecasts on subseasonal time scales, where systematic biases develop due to inadequate parameterizations (focusing on mixed-phase clouds and surface fluxes), how increased atmospheric resolution of synoptic features improves the forecasts, and how initialization of sea ice area and thickness and snow depth impacts the skill of the forecasts. Simulations are validated with measurements at pan-Arctic land sites, satellite data, and recent ocean field campaigns.

Assimilation of Sea Surface Temperature in a doubly, two-way nested primitive equation model of the Ligurian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barth, A.; Alvera-Azcarate, A.; Rixen, M.; Beckers, J.-M.; Testut, C.-E.; Brankart, J.-M.; Brasseur, P.

2003-04-01

The GHER 3D primitive equation model is implemented with three different resolutions: a low resolution model (1/4^o) covering the whole Mediterranean Sea, an intermediate resolution model (1/20^o) of the Liguro-Provençal basin and a high resolution model (1/60^o) simulating the fine mesoscale structures in the Ligurian Sea. Boundary conditions and the averaged fields (feedback) are exchanged between two successive nesting levels. The model of the Ligurian Sea is also coupled with the assimilation package SESAM. It allows to assimilate satellite data and in situ observations using the local adaptative SEEK (Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman) filter. Instead of evolving the error space by the numerically expensive Lyapunov equation, a simplified algebraic equation depending on the misfit between observation and model forecast is used. Starting from the 1st January 1998 the low and intermediate resolution models are spun up for 18 months. The initial conditions for the Ligurian Sea are interpolated from the intermediate resolution model. The three models are then integrated until August 1999. During this period AVHRR Sea Surface Temperature of the Ligurian Sea is assimilated. The results are validated by using CTD and XBT profiles of the SIRENA cruise from the SACLANT Center. The overall objective of this study is pre-operational. It should help to identify limitations and weaknesses of forecasting methods and to suggest improvements of existing operational models.

Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santos, Pablo; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2009-01-01

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within physics parameterizations, model resolution limitations, as well as uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and temperature, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of local circulations and summertime pulse convection. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center has been conducting studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land surface initialization data generated by offline simulations of the NASA Land Informatiot System (LIS) on subsequent numerical forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Case et al. 2008, to appear in the Journal of Hydrometeorology). Case et al. presents improvements to simulated sea breezes and surface verification statistics over Florida by initializing WRF with land surface variables from an offline LIS spin-up run, conducted on the exact WRF domain and resolution. The current project extends the previous work over Florida, focusing on selected case studies of typical pulse convection over the southeastern U.S., with an emphasis on improving local short-term WRF simulations over the Mobile, AL and Miami, FL NWS county warning areas. Future efforts may involve examining the impacts of assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture data, and/or introducing weekly greenness vegetation fraction composites (as opposed to monthly climatologies) into ol'fline NASA LIS runs. Based on positive impacts, the offline LIS runs could be transitioned into an operational mode, providing land surface initialization data to NWS forecast offices in real time.

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meissner, K. J.; Lippmann, T.; Sen Gupta, A.

2012-06-01

One-third of the world's coral reefs have disappeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under threat today from various stress factors. The main global stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation (Ωarag). Here, we use a climate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), and their impact on the environmental stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open ocean Ωarag over the next 400 years. Our simulations show that for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the threshold of 3.3 for zonal and annual mean Ωarag would be crossed in the first half of this century. By year 2030, 66-85% of the reef locations considered in this study would experience severe bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef considered in this study (>97%) would experience severe thermal stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in temperatures.

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.

2014-02-01

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

Potential Elevation Biases for Laser Altimeters from Subsurface Scattered Photons: Laboratory and Model Exploration of Green Light Scattering in Snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greeley, A.; Neumann, T.; Markus, T.; Kurtz, N. T.; Cook, W. B.

2015-12-01

Existing visible light laser altimeters such as MABEL (Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar) - a single photon counting simulator for ATLAS (Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System) on NASA's upcoming ICESat-2 mission - and ATM (Airborne Topographic Mapper) on NASA's Operation IceBridge mission provide scientists a view of Earth's ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice with unprecedented detail. Precise calibration of these instruments is needed to understand rapidly changing parameters like sea ice freeboard and to measure optical properties of surfaces like snow covered ice sheets using subsurface scattered photons. Photons travelling into snow, ice, or water before scattering back to the altimeter receiving system (subsurface photons) travel farther and longer than photons scattering off the surface only, causing a bias in the measured elevation. We seek to identify subsurface photons in a laboratory setting using a flight-tested laser altimeter (MABEL) and to quantify their effect on surface elevation estimates for laser altimeter systems. We also compare these estimates with previous laboratory measurements of green laser light transmission through snow, as well as Monte Carlo simulations of backscattered photons from snow.

Assessing modeled Greenland surface mass balance in the GISS Model E2 and its sensitivity to surface albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Patrick; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Koenig, Lora S.; Tedesco, Marco; Moustafa, Samiah E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Fischer, Robert P.; Fettweis, Xavier

2016-04-01

The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays an important role in global sea level change. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) such as the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) have been employed at high spatial resolution with relatively complex physics to simulate ice sheet SMB. Global climate models (GCMs) incorporate less sophisticated physical schemes and provide outputs at a lower spatial resolution, but have the advantage of modeling the interaction between different components of the earth's oceans, climate, and land surface at a global scale. Improving the ability of GCMs to represent ice sheet SMB is important for making predictions of future changes in global sea level. With the ultimate goal of improving SMB simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 GCM, we compare simulated GrIS SMB against the outputs of the MAR model and radar-derived estimates of snow accumulation. In order to reproduce present-day climate variability in the Model E2 simulation, winds are constrained to match the reanalysis datasets used to force MAR at the lateral boundaries. We conduct a preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the simulated Model E2 SMB to surface albedo, a parameter that is known to strongly influence SMB. Model E2 albedo is set to a fixed value of 0.8 over the entire ice sheet in the initial configuration of the model (control case). We adjust this fixed value in an ensemble of simulations over a range of 0.4 to 0.8 (roughly the range of observed summer GrIS albedo values) to examine the sensitivity of ice-sheet-wide SMB to albedo. We prescribe albedo from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD43A3 v6 to examine the impact of a more realistic spatial and temporal variations in albedo. An age-dependent snow albedo parameterization is applied, and its impact on SMB relative to observations and the RCM is assessed.

Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part II. The northern hemisphere atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, M.A.

The influence of midlatitude air-sea interaction on the atmospheric anomalies associated with El Nino is investigated by coupling the Community Climate Model to a mixed-layer ocean model in the North Pacific. Prescribed El Nino conditions, warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific, cause a southward displacement and strengthening of the Aleutian Low. This results in enhanced (reduced) advection of cold Asian air over the west-central (northwest) Pacific and northward advection of warm air over the eastern Pacific. Allowing air-sea feedback in the North Pacific slightly modified the El Nino-induced near-surface wind, air temperature, and precipitation anomalies. The anomalousmore » cyclonic circulation over the North Pacific is more concentric and shifted slightly to the east in the coupled simulations. Air-sea feedback also damped the air temperature anomalies over most of the North Pacific and reduced the precipitation rate above the cold SST anomaly that develops in the central Pacific. The simulated North Pacific SST anomalies and the resulting Northern Hemisphere atmospheric anomalies are roughly one-third as large as those related to the prescribed El Nino conditions in a composite of five cases. The composite geopotential height anomalies associated with changes in the North Pacific SSTs have an equivalent barotropic structure and range from -65 m to 50 m at the 200-mb level. Including air-sea feedback in the North Pacific tended to damp the atmospheric anomalies caused by the prescribed El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. As a result, the zonally elongated geopotential height anomalies over the West Pacific are reduced and shifted to the east. However, the atmospheric changes associated with the North Pacific SST anomalies vary widely among the five cases.« less

Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

Modeling a Typical Winter-time Dust Event over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kalenderski, S.; Stenchikov, G.; Zhao, Chun

2013-02-20

We used WRF-Chem, a regional meteorological model coupled with an aerosol-chemistry component, to simulate various aspects of the dust phenomena over the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea during a typical winter-time dust event that occurred in January 2009. The model predicted that the total amount of emitted dust was 18.3 Tg for the entire dust outburst period and that the two maximum daily rates were ~2.4 Tg/day and ~1.5 Tg/day, corresponding to two periods with the highest aerosol optical depth that were well captured by ground- and satellite-based observations. The model predicted that the dust plume was thick, extensive, andmore » mixed in a deep boundary layer at an altitude of 3-4 km. Its spatial distribution was modeled to be consistent with typical spatial patterns of dust emissions. We utilized MODIS-Aqua and Solar Village AERONET measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) to evaluate the radiative impact of aerosols. Our results clearly indicated that the presence of dust particles in the atmosphere caused a significant reduction in the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dust event. We also found that dust aerosols have significant impact on the energy and nutrient balances of the Red Sea. Our results showed that the simulated cooling under the dust plume reached 100 W/m2, which could have profound effects on both the sea surface temperature and circulation. Further analysis of dust generation and its spatial and temporal variability is extremely important for future projections and for better understanding of the climate and ecological history of the Red Sea.« less

Rate and state dependent processes in sea ice deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, P. R.; Scourfield, S.; Lishman, B.

2014-12-01

Realistic models of sea ice processes and properties are needed to assess sea ice thickness, extent and concentration and, when run within GCMs, provide prediction of climate change. The deformation of sea ice is a key control on the Arctic Ocean dynamics. But the deformation of sea ice is dependent not only on the rate of the processes involved but also the state of the sea ice and particular in terms of its evolution with time and temperature. Shear deformation is a dominant mechanism from the scale of basin-scale shear lineaments, through floe-floe interaction to block sliding in ice ridges. The shear deformation will not only depend on the speed of movement of ice surfaces but also the degree that the surfaces have bonded during thermal consolidation and compaction. Frictional resistance to sliding can vary by more than two orders of magnitude depending on the state of the interface. But this in turn is dependent upon both imposed conditions and sea ice properties such as size distribution of interfacial broken ice, angularity, porosity, salinity, etc. We review experimental results in sea ice mechanics from mid-scale experiments, conducted in the Hamburg model ship ice tank, simulating sea ice floe motion and interaction and compare these with laboratory experiments on ice friction done in direct shear from which a rate and state constitutive relation for shear deformation is derived. Finally we apply this to field measurement of sea ice friction made during experiments in the Barents Sea to assess the other environmental factors, the state terms, that need to be modelled in order to up-scale to Arctic Ocean-scale dynamics.

Evidence and mechanism of Hurricane Fran-Induced ocean cooling in the Charleston Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Bohm, E.; Zhang, C.; Li, X.

Evidence of enhanced sea surface cooling during and following the passage of Hurricane Fran in September 1996 over an oceanic depression located on the ocean margin offshore of Charleston, South Carolina (referred to as the Charleston Trough), [Pietrafesa, 1983] is documented. Approximately 4C° of sea surface temperature (SST) reduction within the Charleston Trough following the passage of Hurricane Fran was estimated based on SST imagery from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA-14 polar orbiting satellite. Simulations using a three-dimensional coastal ocean model indicate that the largest SST reduction occurred within the Charleston Trough. This SST reduction can be explained by oceanic mixing due to storm-induced internal inertia-gravity waves.

Marine Cloud Brightening: regional applications to the weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadian, A.; Hauser, R.; Kleypas, J. A.; Latham, J.; Parkes, B.; Salter, S.

2013-12-01

This study examines the potential to cool ocean surface waters in regions of hurricane genesis and early development. This would be achieved by seeding, with copious quantities of seawater cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), low-level maritime stratocumulus clouds covering these regions or those at the source of incoming currents. Higher cloud droplet density would increase these clouds' reflectivity to incoming sunlight, and possibly their longevity. This approach is a more localized application of the Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) geoengineering technique promoting global cooling. By utilizing a climate ocean/atmosphere coupled model, HadGEM1, and by judicious seeding of maritime stratocumulus clouds, we demonstrate that we may be able to significantly reduce sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in hurricane development regions. Thus artificial seeding may reduce hurricane intensity; but how well the magnitude of this effect is yet to be determined. Increases in coral bleaching events over the last few decades have been largely caused by rising SSTs, and continued warming is expected to cause even greater increases through this century. Using thr same Global Climate Model to examine the potential of MCB to cool oceanic surface waters in three coral reef provinces. Our simulations indicate that under doubled CO2 conditions, the substantial increases in coral bleaching conditions from current values in three reef regions (Caribbean, French Polynesia, and the Great Barrier Reef) were eliminated when MCB was applied, which reduced the SSTs at these sites roughly to their original values. In this study we also illustrate how even regional application of MCB can affect the planetary meridional heat flux and the reduction in poleward heat transfer. (a) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the 2xCO2 and CONTROL simulations. (b) Change in annual average sea surface temperature, Celsius, between the CONTROL and 2xCO2+MCB simulations. The dashed black boxes in both panels represent the three coral reef regions. In the Southern north Atlantic, the warmer SSTs in (a) is reduced to the current "control" temperatures, weakening hurricane formation.

High resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands - Validation of the historical run from 2003 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Newman, A. J.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Monaghan, A. J.

2016-12-01

A high-resolution (a 1.5 km grid spacing domain nested within a 4.5 km grid spacing domain) 10-year regional climate simulation over the entire Hawaiian archipelago is being conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7.1. Numerical sensitivity simulations of the Hawaiian Rainband Project (HaRP, a filed experiment from July to August in 1990) showed that the simulated precipitation properties are sensitive to initial and lateral boundary conditions, sea surface temperature (SST), land surface models, vertical resolution and cloud droplet concentration. The validations of model simulated statistics of the trade wind inversion, temperature, wind field, cloud cover, and precipitation over the islands against various observations from soundings, satellites, weather stations and rain gauges during the period from 2003 to 2012 will be presented at the meeting.

Snow depth retrieval from L-band satellite measurements on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maaß, N.; Kaleschke, L.; Wever, N.; Lehning, M.; Nicolaus, M.; Rossmann, H. L.

2017-12-01

The passive microwave mission SMOS provides daily coverage of the polar regions and measures at a low frequency of 1.4 GHz (L-band). SMOS observations have been used to operationally retrieve sea ice thickness up to 1 m and to estimate snow depth in the Arctic for thicker ice. Here, we present how SMOS-retrieved snow depths compare with airborne measurements from NASA's Operation IceBridge mission (OIB) and with AMSR-2 satellite retrievals at higher frequencies, and we show first applications to Antarctic sea ice. In previous studies, SMOS and OIB snow depths showed good agreement on spatial scales from 50 to 1000 km for some days and disagreement for other days. Here, we present a more comprehensive comparison of OIB and SMOS snow depths in the Arctic for 2011 to 2015. We find that the SMOS retrieval works best for cold conditions and depends on auxiliary information on ice surface temperature, here provided by MODIS thermal imagery satellite data. However, comparing SMOS and OIB snow depths is difficult because of the different spatial resolutions (SMOS: 40 km, OIB: 40 m). Spatial variability within the SMOS footprint can lead to different snow conditions as seen from SMOS and OIB. Ideally the comparison is made for uniform conditions: Low lead and open water fraction, low spatial and temporal variability of ice surface temperature, no mixture of multi- and first-year ice. Under these conditions and cold temperatures (surface temperatures below -25°C), correlation coefficients between SMOS and OIB snow depths increase from 0.3 to 0.6. A finding from the comparison with AMSR-2 snow depths is that the SMOS-based maps depend less on the age of the sea ice than the maps derived from higher frequencies. Additionally, we show first results of SMOS snow depths for Antarctic sea ice. SMOS observations are compared to measurements of autonomous snow buoys drifting in the Weddell Sea since 2014. For a better comparability of these point measurements with SMOS data, we use model simulations along these trajectories made with a sea ice version of SNOWPACK, a 1D multi-layer thermodynamic snow model driven by reanalysis data. These simulations are especially helpful for indicating the occurrence of snow-ice-transformation, which cannot be identified in the buoy data and contributes to the measured snow height.

Preparing for ICESat-2: Simulated Geolocated Photon Data for Cryospheric Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbeck, K.; Neumann, T.; Lee, J.; Hancock, D.; Brenner, A. C.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

ICESat-2 will carry NASA's next-generation laser altimeter, ATLAS (Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System), which is designed to measure changes in ice sheet height, sea ice freeboard, and vegetation canopy height. There is a critical need for data that simulate what certain ICESat-2 science data products will "look like" post-launch in order to aid the data product development process. There are several sources for simulated photon-counting lidar data, including data from NASA's MABEL (Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar) instrument, and M-ATLAS (MABEL data that has been scaled geometrically and radiometrically to be more similar to that expected from ATLAS). From these sources, we are able to develop simulated granules of the geolocated photon cloud product; also referred to as ATL03. These simulated ATL03 granules can be further processed into the upper-level data products that report ice sheet height, sea ice freeboard, and vegetation canopy height. For ice sheet height (ATL06) and sea ice height (ATL07) simulations, both MABEL and M-ATLAS data products are used. M-ATLAS data use ATLAS engineering design cases for signal and background noise rates over certain surface types, and also provides large vertical windows of data for more accurate calculations of atmospheric background rates. MABEL data give a more accurate representation of background noise rates over areas of water (i.e., melt ponds, crevasses or sea ice leads) versus land or solid ice. Through a variety of data manipulation procedures, we provide a product that mimics the appearance and parameter characterization of ATL03 data granules. There are three primary goals for generating this simulated ATL03 dataset: (1) allowing end users to become familiar with using the large photon cloud datasets that will be the primary science data product from ICESat-2, (2) the process ensures that ATL03 data can flow seamlessly through upper-level science data product algorithms, and (3) the process ensures parameter traceability through ATL03 and upper-level data products. We will present a summary of how simulated data products are generated, the cryospheric data product applications for this simulated data (specifically ice sheet height and sea ice freeboard), and where these simulated datasets are available to the ICESat-2 data user community.

Climate change impacts on southern Ross Sea phytoplankton composition, productivity, and export

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Daniel E.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Smith, Walker O.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Dinniman, Michael S.; Hemmings, John C. P.

2017-03-01

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity, and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid-21st and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity by midcentury and 14% by late-century and a proportional increase in carbon export, which remains approximately 18% of primary production. In addition, scenario results indicate diatom biomass increases while P. antarctica biomass decreases in the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the century, diatom biomass remains relatively constant and P. antarctica biomass increases. Additional scenarios examining the independent contributions of expected future changes (temperature, mixed layer depth, irradiance, and surface iron inputs from melting ice) demonstrate that earlier availability of low light due to reduction of sea ice early in the growing season is the primary driver of productivity increases over the next century; shallower mixed layer depths additionally contribute to changes of assemblage composition and export. This study further demonstrates how glider data can be effectively used to facilitate model development and simulation, and inform interpretation of biogeochemical observations in the context of climate change.