Perceived duration of emotional events: evidence for a positivity effect in older adults.

PubMed

Nicol, Jeffrey R; Tanner, Jessica; Clarke, Kelly

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Arousal and negative affect modulate the effect of emotion on the subjective experience of the passage of time. Given that older adults are less aroused by negative emotional stimuli, and report lower levels of negative affect, compared with younger adults, the present study examined whether the effect of emotion on time perception differed in older and younger adults. Participants performed a temporal bisection task for emotional (i.e., angry, sad, happy) and neutral facial expressions presented at varying temporal intervals. Older adults perceived the duration of both positive and threatening events longer than neutral events, whereas younger adults only perceived threatening events longer than neutral events. The results, which are partially consistent with the positivity effect of aging postulated by the socioemotional selectivity theory, are the first to show how the effect of emotion on perceived duration affects older adults, and support previous research indicating that only threatening events prolong perceived duration in younger adults.

Individual differences in posttraumatic distress: problems with the DSM-IV model.

PubMed

Bowman, M L

1999-02-01

To evaluate the evidence concerning the role of threatening life events in accounting for clinically significant posttraumatic stress responses. Research was examined to review the epidemiology, evidence of dose-response relations, and individual difference factors in accounting for variations in conditions, including posttraumatic stress disorder, after exposure to threatening events. The evidence is significantly discrepant from the clinical Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) model. Greater distress arises from individual differences than from event characteristics. Important individual differences that interact with threat exposures include trait negative affectivity (neuroticism); beliefs about emotions, the self, the world, and the sources and consequences of danger; and prevent acts, disorders, and intelligence. Reasons for the discrepancies between the evidence and the current model of posttraumatic distress are proposed. In accounting for responses to threatening life events, the relatively minor contribution of event qualities compared with individual differences has significant treatment implications. Treatment approaches assuming that toxic event exposure creates a posttraumatic disorder fail to consider individual differences that could improve treatment efficacy.

Role of Rhinovirus C in Apparently Life-Threatening Events in Infants, Spain

PubMed Central

García, M. Luz; Pozo, Francisco; Reyes, Noelia; Pérez-Breña, Pilar; Casas, Inmaculada

2009-01-01

To assess whether infants hospitalized after an apparently life-threatening event had an associated respiratory virus infection, we analyzed nasopharyngeal aspirates from 16 patients. Nine of 11 infants with positive virus results were infected by rhinoviruses. We detected the new genogroup of rhinovirus C in 6 aspirates. PMID:19788827

Simulation and anaesthesia

PubMed Central

Bhagwat, Milind

2012-01-01

Training in anaesthesia relies on the duration and quality of clinical experience. It involves exposure to a range of interventions. This works well in routine cases, but when an uncommon and life-threatening event occurs, the anaesthetist needs to carry out multiple tasks simultaneously. Aviation has remarkable similarities with the practice of anaesthesia. Over the years, the aviation industry has used simulation to train and assess individuals very effectively. Anaesthetists face rapidly evolving clinical situations. This needs appropriate decision-making and communication with others in the theatre team. Simulation, using current technology, offers innovative and reproducible training experience. It enables standardised scenario building and reflective learning. Various non-technical aspects of an anaesthetist's day-to-day work could also be addressed to during such training. The technology could be used very effectively for the assessment of competence too. Simulation has been used for technology development and appraisal over the years. PMID:22529414

Genotypic Diversity and Short-term Response to Shading Stress in a Threatened Seagrass: Does Low Diversity Mean Low Resilience?

PubMed

Evans, Suzanna M; Vergés, Adriana; Poore, Alistair G B

2017-01-01

Seagrasses that are predominantly clonal often have low levels of genetic variation within populations and predicting their response to changing conditions requires an understanding of whether genetic variation confers increased resistance to environmental stressors. A higher level of genetic diversity is assumed to benefit threatened species due to the increased likelihood of those populations having genotypes that can persist under environmental change. To test this idea, we conducted an in situ shading experiment with six geographically distinct meadows of the threatened seagrass Posidonia australis that vary in genetic diversity. Different genotypes within meadows varied widely in their physiological and growth responses to reduced light during a simulated short-term turbidity event. The majority of meadows were resistant to the sudden reduction in light availability, but a small subset of meadows with low genotypic diversity were particularly vulnerable to the early effects of shading, showing substantially reduced growth rates after only 3 weeks. Using the photosynthetic performance (maximum quantum yield) of known genotypes, we simulated meadows of varying genetic diversity to show that higher diversity can increase meadow resilience to stress by ensuring a high probability of including a high-performing genotype. These results support the hypothesis that complementarity among genotypes enhances the adaptive capacity of a population, and have significant implications for the conservation of declining P. australis meadows close to the species range edge on the east coast of Australia, where the genotypic diversity is low.

Genotypic Diversity and Short-term Response to Shading Stress in a Threatened Seagrass: Does Low Diversity Mean Low Resilience?

PubMed Central

Evans, Suzanna M.; Vergés, Adriana; Poore, Alistair G. B.

2017-01-01

Seagrasses that are predominantly clonal often have low levels of genetic variation within populations and predicting their response to changing conditions requires an understanding of whether genetic variation confers increased resistance to environmental stressors. A higher level of genetic diversity is assumed to benefit threatened species due to the increased likelihood of those populations having genotypes that can persist under environmental change. To test this idea, we conducted an in situ shading experiment with six geographically distinct meadows of the threatened seagrass Posidonia australis that vary in genetic diversity. Different genotypes within meadows varied widely in their physiological and growth responses to reduced light during a simulated short-term turbidity event. The majority of meadows were resistant to the sudden reduction in light availability, but a small subset of meadows with low genotypic diversity were particularly vulnerable to the early effects of shading, showing substantially reduced growth rates after only 3 weeks. Using the photosynthetic performance (maximum quantum yield) of known genotypes, we simulated meadows of varying genetic diversity to show that higher diversity can increase meadow resilience to stress by ensuring a high probability of including a high-performing genotype. These results support the hypothesis that complementarity among genotypes enhances the adaptive capacity of a population, and have significant implications for the conservation of declining P. australis meadows close to the species range edge on the east coast of Australia, where the genotypic diversity is low. PMID:28855915

Stress-oriented driver assistance system for electric vehicles.

PubMed

Athanasiou, Georgia; Tsotoulidis, Savvas; Mitronikas, Epaminondas; Lymberopoulos, Dimitrios

2014-01-01

Stress is physiological and physical reaction that appears in highly demanding situations and affects human's perception and reaction capability. Occurrence of stress events within highly dynamic road environment could lead to life-threatening situation. With the perspective of safety and comfort driving provision to anxious drivers, in this paper a stress-oriented Driver Assistance System (DAS) is proposed. The DAS deployed on Electric Vehicle. This novel DAS customizes driving command signal in respect to road context, when stress is detected. The effectiveness of this novel DAS is verified by simulation in MATLAB/SIMULINK environment.

Positive modulation of a neutral declarative memory by a threatening social event.

PubMed

Fernández, Rodrigo S; Bavassi, Luz; Campos, Jorge; Allegri, Ricardo F; Molina, Victor A; Forcato, Cecilia; Pedreira, María E

2015-12-01

Memories can be altered by negative or arousing experiences due to the activation of the stress-responsive sympatho-adrenal-medullary axis (SYM). Here, we used a neutral declarative memory that was acquired during multi-trial training to determine the effect of a threatening event on memory without emotional valence. To this end, participants received a new threatening social protocol before learning pairs of meaningless syllables and were tested either 15 min, 2 days or 8 days after acquisition. We first demonstrated that this threatening social situation activates not only the SYM axis (Experiment 1) and the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA; Experiment 2), but also, it improves the acquisition or early consolidation of the syllable pairs (Experiment 3). This improvement is not a transient effect; it can be observed after the memory is consolidated. Furthermore, this modulation increases the persistence of memory (Experiment 4). Thus, it is possible to affect memories with specific events that contain unrelated content and a different valence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

PubMed Central

Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

2017-01-01

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

PubMed

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

2017-11-21

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

Violence prevention education program for psychiatric outpatient departments.

PubMed

Feinstein, Robert E

2014-10-01

Approximately 40 % of psychiatrists and up to 64 % of psychiatric residents have been physically assaulted. Ranges of 72-96 % of psychiatric residents in various studies have been verbally threatened. As violence risk occurs in outpatient settings, our department developed a quality and safety curriculum designed to prepare psychiatric residents and staff to optimally respond to aggressive outpatients and violence threats or events. In 2011 and 2012, we offered an 8-part violence prevention performance improvement curriculum/program including (1) situational awareness/creating a safe environment; (2) violence de-escalation training; (3) violence risk assessment training, use of risk assessment tools, and medical record documentation; (4) violence safety discharge planning; (5) legal issues and violence; (6) "shots fired on campus" video/discussion; (7) "2011 violence threat simulation" video/discussion; and (8) violence threat simulation exercise. This program was offered to approximately 60 psychiatric residents/staff in each year. We obtained qualitative comments about the entire program and data from 2 years of post-event surveys on the usefulness of the "violence threat simulation exercise." The large majority of comments about program elements 1 to 7 were positive. In 2011 and 2012, respectively, 76 and 86 % of participants responded to a post-event survey of the violence threat simulation exercise; 90 and 88 % of participants, respectively, reported the simulation to be very helpful/somewhat helpful; and 86 and 82 % of participants, respectively, reported feeling much better/better prepared to deal with a violent event. Although some participants experienced anxiety, sleep disturbances, increase in work safety concerns, and/or traumatic memories, the majority reported no post-simulation symptoms (72 and 80 %, respectively). Although we are unable to demonstrate that this program effectively prevents violence, the overall positive response from participants encourages us to continue developing our quality and safety program and to offer our easily reproducible and modifiable curriculum to others.

Simulating care: technology-mediated learning in twenty-first century nursing education.

PubMed

Diener, Elizabeth; Hobbs, Nelda

2012-01-01

The increased reliance on simulation classrooms has proven successful in learning skills. Questions persist concerning the ability of technology-driven robotic devices to form and cultivate caring behaviors, or sufficiently develop interactive nurse-client communication necessary in the context of nursing. This article examines the disconnects created by use of simulation technology in nursing education, raising the question: "Can learning of caring-as-being, be facilitated in simulation classrooms?" We propose that unless time is spent with human beings in the earliest stages of nursing education, transpersonal caring relationships do not have space to develop. Learning, crafting, and maturation of caring behaviors threatens to become a serendipitous event or is no longer perceived as an essential characteristic of nursing. Technology does not negate caring-the isolation it fosters makes transpersonal caring all the more important. We are called to create a new paradigm for nursing education that merges Nightingale's vision with technology's promise. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prevalence of depression and its correlates among undergraduates in Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Amarasuriya, Santushi Devini; Jorm, Anthony Francis; Reavley, Nicola Jane

2015-06-01

There is a dearth of mental health research on undergraduates in Sri Lanka. This study examines the prevalence of depression in a sample of Sri Lankan undergraduates, their exposure to threatening life events and the predictors of their depression. Responses of 4304 undergraduates were obtained on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and a measure of exposure to threatening life events, with binary logistic regression models used to identify the demographic and life event correlates of screening positive for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). PHQ-9 diagnoses of 'Major' and 'Other' depression were obtained by 9.3% and 13.5% of undergraduates, respectively. A higher likelihood of MDD was seen among those who were older and those living in hostels (compared to home), although no differences were seen between genders or those studying in different faculties. Likelihood of MDD was higher in undergraduates exposed to multiple threatening life events as well as those exposed to physical threat; family deaths; romantic break-ups; a problem with a close associate; educational difficulties; unemployment and domestic violence, and among male undergraduates harassed by another student. MDD is prevalent in these undergraduates and universities need to develop services to assist them. Such services may also need to focus on supporting those who have experienced threatening life events, particularly those that arise as a result of being an undergraduate, as these may increase the risk of MDD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Psychosomatic symptoms in medical outpatients: an investigation of self-handicapping theory.

PubMed

Organista, P B; Miranda, J

1991-01-01

Investigated self-handicapping theory as it relates to somatization in medical patients. We predicted that medical outpatients (N = 113) would report psychosomatic symptoms in response to events that threaten their self-esteem. As predicted, results of hierarchical multiple regression indicated that high-perfectionism patients reported somatic symptoms positively related to the number of events that jeopardize their sense of accomplishment, whereas low-perfectionism patients' somatic symptoms were not related to these events (p = .005). Contrary to prediction, high-dependency patients did not differ significantly from low-dependency patients in the relationship of somatic symptoms and events that threatened their interpersonal relationships (p = .115). Implications of these findings and the utility of self-handicapping theory for predicting somatization in medical patients are discussed.

Edoxaban Plus Aspirin vs Dual Antiplatelet Therapy in Endovascular Treatment of Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease: Results of the ePAD Trial

PubMed Central

Moll, Frans; Baumgartner, Iris; Jaff, Michael; Nwachuku, Chuke; Tangelder, Marco; Ansel, Gary; Adams, George; Zeller, Thomas; Rundback, John; Grosso, Michael; Lin, Min; Mercur, Michele F.; Minar, Erich

2018-01-01

Purpose: To report a randomized study that investigated the safety (risk of major bleeds) and potential efficacy of edoxaban, an oral anticoagulant that targets the major components of arterial thrombi, to prevent loss of patency following endovascular treatment (EVT). Methods: Between February 2012 and June 2014, 203 patients who underwent femoropopliteal EVT were randomized to receive aspirin plus edoxaban or aspirin plus clopidogrel for 3 months in the Edoxaban in Peripheral Arterial Disease (ePAD) study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01802775). Randomization assigned 101 patients (mean age 68.0±10.4 years; 67 men) to the edoxaban group and 102 patients (mean age 66.7±8.6 years; 78 men) to the clopidogrel group. The primary safety endpoint was bleeding as classified by the TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) criteria and ISTH (International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis) criteria; the efficacy endpoint was the rate of restenosis/reocclusion. Results: There were no major or life-threatening bleeding events in the edoxaban group, while there were 2 major and 2 life-threatening bleeding events in the clopidogrel group by the TIMI criteria. By the ISTH classification, there was 1 major and 1 life-threatening bleeding event vs 5 major and 2 life-threatening bleeding events, respectively [relative risk (RR) 0.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02 to 1.70]. The bleeding risk was not statistically different with either treatment when assessed by TIMI or ISTH. Following 6 months of observation, there was a lower incidence of restenosis/reocclusion with edoxaban compared with clopidogrel (30.9% vs 34.7%; RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.34, p=0.643). Conclusion: These results suggest that patients who have undergone EVT have similar risks for major and life-threatening bleeding events with edoxaban and aspirin compared with clopidogrel and aspirin. The incidence of restenosis/reocclusion events, while not statistically different, was lower with edoxaban and aspirin, but an adequately sized trial will be needed to confirm these findings. PMID:29552984

Edoxaban Plus Aspirin vs Dual Antiplatelet Therapy in Endovascular Treatment of Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease: Results of the ePAD Trial.

PubMed

Moll, Frans; Baumgartner, Iris; Jaff, Michael; Nwachuku, Chuke; Tangelder, Marco; Ansel, Gary; Adams, George; Zeller, Thomas; Rundback, John; Grosso, Michael; Lin, Min; Mercur, Michele F; Minar, Erich

2018-04-01

To report a randomized study that investigated the safety (risk of major bleeds) and potential efficacy of edoxaban, an oral anticoagulant that targets the major components of arterial thrombi, to prevent loss of patency following endovascular treatment (EVT). Between February 2012 and June 2014, 203 patients who underwent femoropopliteal EVT were randomized to receive aspirin plus edoxaban or aspirin plus clopidogrel for 3 months in the Edoxaban in Peripheral Arterial Disease (ePAD) study ( ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01802775). Randomization assigned 101 patients (mean age 68.0±10.4 years; 67 men) to the edoxaban group and 102 patients (mean age 66.7±8.6 years; 78 men) to the clopidogrel group. The primary safety endpoint was bleeding as classified by the TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) criteria and ISTH (International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis) criteria; the efficacy endpoint was the rate of restenosis/reocclusion. There were no major or life-threatening bleeding events in the edoxaban group, while there were 2 major and 2 life-threatening bleeding events in the clopidogrel group by the TIMI criteria. By the ISTH classification, there was 1 major and 1 life-threatening bleeding event vs 5 major and 2 life-threatening bleeding events, respectively [relative risk (RR) 0.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02 to 1.70]. The bleeding risk was not statistically different with either treatment when assessed by TIMI or ISTH. Following 6 months of observation, there was a lower incidence of restenosis/reocclusion with edoxaban compared with clopidogrel (30.9% vs 34.7%; RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.34, p=0.643). These results suggest that patients who have undergone EVT have similar risks for major and life-threatening bleeding events with edoxaban and aspirin compared with clopidogrel and aspirin. The incidence of restenosis/reocclusion events, while not statistically different, was lower with edoxaban and aspirin, but an adequately sized trial will be needed to confirm these findings.

An exploratory investigation of real-world reasoning in paranoia.

PubMed

Huddy, V; Brown, G P; Boyd, T; Wykes, T

2014-03-01

Paranoid thinking has been linked to greater availability in memory of past threats to the self. However, remembered experiences may not always closely resemble events that trigger paranoia, so novel explanations must be elaborated for the likelihood of threat to be determined. We investigated the ability of paranoid individuals to construct explanations for everyday situations and whether these modulate their emotional impact. Twenty-one participants experiencing paranoia and 21 healthy controls completed a mental simulation task that yields a measure of the coherence of reasoning in everyday situations. When responses featured positive content, clinical participants produced less coherent narratives in response to paranoid themed scenarios than healthy controls. There was no significant difference between the groups when responses featured negative content. The current study suggests that difficulty in scenario construction may exacerbate paranoia by reducing access to non-threatening explanations for everyday events, and this consequently increases distress. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Source Determination of Red Gel Pen Inks using Raman Spectroscopy and Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy combined with Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coefficients and Principal Component Analysis.

PubMed

Mohamad Asri, Muhammad Naeim; Mat Desa, Wan Nur Syuhaila; Ismail, Dzulkiflee

2018-01-01

The potential combination of two nondestructive techniques, that is, Raman spectroscopy (RS) and attenuated total reflectance-fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy with Pearson's product moment correlation (PPMC) coefficient (r) and principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the actual source of red gel pen ink used to write a simulated threatening note, was examined. Eighteen (18) red gel pens purchased from Japan and Malaysia from November to December 2014 where one of the pens was used to write a simulated threatening note were analyzed using RS and ATR-FTIR spectroscopy, respectively. The spectra of all the red gel pen inks including the ink deposited on the simulated threatening note gathered from the RS and ATR-FTIR analyses were subjected to PPMC coefficient (r) calculation and principal component analysis (PCA). The coefficients r = 0.9985 and r = 0.9912 for pairwise combination of RS and ATR-FTIR spectra respectively and similarities in terms of PC1 and PC2 scores of one of the inks to the ink deposited on the simulated threatening note substantiated the feasibility of combining RS and ATR-FTIR spectroscopy with PPMC coefficient (r) and PCA for successful source determination of red gel pen inks. The development of pigment spectral library had allowed the ink deposited on the threatening note to be identified as XSL Poppy Red (CI Pigment Red 112). © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event detection and characterization. This ensemble approach allows for uncertainty estimates and confidence intervals to be explored in simulations of drought event characteristics, such as duration and severity, which would not otherwise be available from a deterministic approach. The acquired understanding of uncertainty in drought events may then be applied to historic drought reconstructions, supplying evidence which could prove vital in decision making scenarios.

77 FR 18829 - Circulatory System Devices Panel of the Medical Devices Advisory Committee; Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

... rare life-threatening events to more common events that are perceived to have less severe clinical sequelae. Many of these events were evident in the premarket studies; however, rare events such as erosion... events in the overall context of the disease and existing treatment options; (2) to discuss whether...

Simulating dynamical features of escape panic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk; Farkas, Illés; Vicsek, Tamás

2000-09-01

One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires in crowded buildings; at other times, stampedes can arise during the rush for seats or seemingly without cause. Although engineers are finding ways to alleviate the scale of such disasters, their frequency seems to be increasing with the number and size of mass events. But systematic studies of panic behaviour and quantitative theories capable of predicting such crowd dynamics are rare. Here we use a model of pedestrian behaviour to investigate the mechanisms of (and preconditions for) panic and jamming by uncoordinated motion in crowds. Our simulations suggest practical ways to prevent dangerous crowd pressures. Moreover, we find an optimal strategy for escape from a smoke-filled room, involving a mixture of individualistic behaviour and collective `herding' instinct.

Uncertainty Quantification applied to flow simulations in thoracic aortic aneurysms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccadifuoco, Alessandro; Mariotti, Alessandro; Celi, Simona; Martini, Nicola; Salvetti, Maria Vittoria

2015-11-01

The thoracic aortic aneurysm is a progressive dilatation of the thoracic aorta causing a weakness in the aortic wall, which may eventually cause life-threatening events. Clinical decisions on treatment strategies are currently based on empiric criteria, like the aortic diameter value or its growth rate. Numerical simulations can give the quantification of important indexes which are impossible to be obtained through in-vivo measurements and can provide supplementary information. Hemodynamic simulations are carried out by using the open-source tool SimVascular and considering patient-specific geometries. One of the main issues in these simulations is the choice of suitable boundary conditions, modeling the organs and vessels not included in the computational domain. The current practice is to use outflow conditions based on resistance and capacitance, whose values are tuned to obtain a physiological behavior of the patient pressure. However it is not known a priori how this choice affects the results of the simulation. The impact of the uncertainties in these outflow parameters is investigated here by using the generalized Polynomial Chaos approach. This analysis also permits to calibrate the outflow-boundary parameters when patient-specific in-vivo data are available.

Simulating Operation of a Complex Sensor Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennings, Esther; Clare, Loren; Woo, Simon

2008-01-01

Simulation Tool for ASCTA Microsensor Network Architecture (STAMiNA) ["ASCTA" denotes the Advanced Sensors Collaborative Technology Alliance.] is a computer program for evaluating conceptual sensor networks deployed over terrain to provide military situational awareness. This or a similar program is needed because of the complexity of interactions among such diverse phenomena as sensing and communication portions of a network, deployment of sensor nodes, effects of terrain, data-fusion algorithms, and threat characteristics. STAMiNA is built upon a commercial network-simulator engine, with extensions to include both sensing and communication models in a discrete-event simulation environment. Users can define (1) a mission environment, including terrain features; (2) objects to be sensed; (3) placements and modalities of sensors, abilities of sensors to sense objects of various types, and sensor false alarm rates; (4) trajectories of threatening objects; (5) means of dissemination and fusion of data; and (6) various network configurations. By use of STAMiNA, one can simulate detection of targets through sensing, dissemination of information by various wireless communication subsystems under various scenarios, and fusion of information, incorporating such metrics as target-detection probabilities, false-alarm rates, and communication loads, and capturing effects of terrain and threat.

Epinephrine Auto-Injector Versus Drawn Up Epinephrine for Anaphylaxis Management: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Chime, Nnenna O; Riese, Victoria G; Scherzer, Daniel J; Perretta, Julianne S; McNamara, LeAnn; Rosen, Michael A; Hunt, Elizabeth A

2017-08-01

Anaphylaxis is a life-threatening event. Most clinical symptoms of anaphylaxis can be reversed by prompt intramuscular administration of epinephrine using an auto-injector or epinephrine drawn up in a syringe and delays and errors may be fatal. The aim of this scoping review is to identify and compare errors associated with use of epinephrine drawn up in a syringe versus epinephrine auto-injectors in order to assist hospitals as they choose which approach minimizes risk of adverse events for their patients. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched using terms agreed to a priori. We reviewed human and simulation studies reporting errors associated with the use of epinephrine in anaphylaxis. There were multiple screening stages with evolving feedback. Each study was independently assessed by two reviewers for eligibility. Data were extracted using an instrument modeled from the Zaza et al instrument and grouped into themes. Three main themes were noted: 1) ergonomics, 2) dosing errors, and 3) errors due to route of administration. Significant knowledge gaps in the operation of epinephrine auto-injectors among healthcare providers, patients, and caregivers were identified. For epinephrine in a syringe, there were more frequent reports of incorrect dosing and erroneous IV administration with associated adverse cardiac events. For the epinephrine auto-injector, unintentional administration to the digit was an error reported on multiple occasions. This scoping review highlights knowledge gaps and a diverse set of errors regardless of the approach to epinephrine preparation during management of anaphylaxis. There are more potentially life-threatening errors reported for epinephrine drawn up in a syringe than with the auto-injectors. The impact of these knowledge gaps and potentially fatal errors on patient outcomes, cost, and quality of care is worthy of further investigation.

Modification of Surf Zone Turbulence and the Undertow by a Submerged Canopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandel, T.; Koseff, J. R.; Rosenzweig, I.; Suckale, J.; Zarama, F. J.

2016-02-01

As sea level rise and stronger storm events threaten our coastlines, coastal vegetation has come under consideration as a potentially resilient, financially viable tool to mitigate flooding and erosion. However, the actual role of this "green infrastructure" in the near-shore region is not fully understood. In order to evaluate the role of vegetation in coastal protection, a series of experiments were conducted in a simulated laboratory surf zone. We examine the impact of canopy location and submergence on the undertow profile, turbulent kinetic energy, and Reynolds stress for varying Reynolds number and Keulegan-Carpenter number, and compare these results to theoretical formulations that utilize a depth-averaged undertow and highly simplified eddy viscosity.

Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Incidence of death and potentially life-threatening near-miss events in living donor hepatic lobectomy: a world-wide survey.

PubMed

Cheah, Yee Lee; Simpson, Mary Ann; Pomposelli, James J; Pomfret, Elizabeth A

2013-05-01

The incidence of morbidity and mortality after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is not well understood because reporting is not standardized and relies on single-center reports. Aborted hepatectomies (AHs) and potentially life-threatening near-miss events (during which a donor's life may be in danger but after which there are no long-term sequelae) are rarely reported. We conducted a worldwide survey of programs performing LDLT to determine the incidence of these events. A survey instrument was sent to 148 programs performing LDLT. The programs were asked to provide donor demographics, case volumes, and information about graft types, operative morbidity and mortality, near-miss events, and AHs. Seventy-one programs (48%), which performed donor hepatectomy 11,553 times and represented 21 countries, completed the survey. The average donor morbidity rate was 24%, with 5 donors (0.04%) requiring transplantation. The donor mortality rate was 0.2% (23/11,553), with the majority of deaths occurring within 60 days, and all but 4 deaths were related to the donation surgery. The incidences of near-miss events and AH were 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Program experience did not affect the incidence of donor morbidity or mortality, but near-miss events and AH were more likely in low-volume programs (≤50 LDLT procedures). In conclusion, it appears that independently of program experience, there is a consistent donor mortality rate of 0.2% associated with LDLT donor procedures, yet increased experience is associated with lower rates of AH and near-miss events. Potentially life-threatening near-miss events and AH are underappreciated complications that must be discussed as part of the informed consent process with any potential living liver donor. Copyright © 2012 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Changes in Neuroticism Following Trauma Exposure

PubMed Central

Ogle, Christin M.; Rubin, David C.; Siegler, Ilene C.

2014-01-01

Objective Using longitudinal data, the present study examined change in midlife neuroticism following trauma exposure. Method Our primary analyses included 670 participants (M age = 60.55, 65.22% male, 99.70% Caucasian) who completed the NEO Personality Inventory at mean age 42 and 50 and reported their lifetime exposure to traumatic events approximately 10 years later. Results No differences in pre-and post-trauma neuroticism scores were found among individuals who experienced all of their lifetime traumas in the interval between the personality assessments. Results were instead consistent with normative age-related declines in neuroticism throughout adulthood. Furthermore, longitudinal changes in neuroticism scores did not differ between individuals with and without histories of midlife trauma exposure. Examination of change in neuroticism following life-threatening traumas yielded a comparable pattern of results. Analysis of facet-level scores largely replicated findings from the domain scores. Supplemental analyses indicated that individuals exposed to life-threatening traumas in childhood or adolescence reported higher midlife neuroticism than individuals who experienced severe traumas in adulthood. Conclusions Overall, our findings suggest that neuroticism does not reliably change following exposure to traumatic events in middle adulthood. Life-threatening traumatic events encountered early in life may have a more pronounced impact on adulthood personality than recent traumatic events. PMID:23550961

A diagnostic Study of a High Impact Weather Episode in the Western Mediterranean Region: IOP8 a HyMeX case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, Samiro; Kalthoff, Norbert; Raff, Fritz

2013-04-01

Fall season heavy rainfall in the western Mediterranean region is one of the most threatening phenomena in the area. Devastating flash floods occur every year somewhere in eastern Spain resulting in a large amount of property losses, destruction of infrastructures, enormous agricultural losses and human fatalities. The forecast of the underlying HIW is a subject of special concern for local meteorologist because of its catastrophic nature. Within the framework of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment) a HIW (High Impact Weather) event took place on the south and eastern part of the Spanish coast, particularly in Andalusia, Murcia, Valencia, Catalonia and less pronouncedly in the Balearic Islands, moving afterwards towards France southern coast. During this event casualties and important economic damage were registered. The amounts of precipitation locally overpassed 200 mm in 24 hours and a tornado occurred in Gandia (Valencia). The main objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive description of the physical atmospheric processes giving rise to the intense precipitation in this event and its movement along the Spanish coast. High-resolution COSMO-CLM model simulations supported by the analysis of observational data sets will be presented. The model simulations and observational data sets, such as a dense network of global positioning systems (GPS), raingauges, surface measurements and radiosoundings are analyzed to document in detail the evolution of the warm and wet air masses which fed the high precipitation event (HPE) systems, as well as the low-level convergence to which the main convective systems were associated.

Prevalence of epilepsy and seizure disorders as causes of apparent life- threatening event (ALTE) in children admitted to a tertiary hospital.

PubMed

Anjos, Alessandra Marques dos; Nunes, Magda Lahorgue

2009-09-01

To determine the prevalence and describe clinical characteristics of seizure disorders and epilepsy as causes of apparent life- threatening event (ALTE) in children admitted at the emergency and followed in a tertiary hospital. Cross-sectional study with prospective data collection using specific guidelines to determine the etiology of ALTE. During the study, 30 (4.2%) children admitted to the hospital had a diagnosis of ALTE. There was a predominance of males (73%) and term infants (70%). Neonatal neurological disorders and neuropsychomotor development delay were found respectively in 13.4% and 10% of the cases. Etiological investigation revealed that 50% of the cases were idiopathic, and 13.4% were caused by epilepsy or seizure disorders. Although all patients had recurrent ALTE events, epilepsy had not been previously suspected. Epilepsy should be included in the differential diagnosis of ALTE, particularly when events are recurrent.

Iraqi Adolescents: Self-Regard, Self-Derogation, and Perceived Threat in War

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlton-Ford, Steve; Ender, Morten G.; Tabatabai, Ahoo

2008-01-01

A year into the 2003 US-Iraq war, how were adolescents in Baghdad faring? Conflict-related events typically lower psychological well-being; in contrast, investment in and protection of threatened identities should lead to self-esteem striving and, presumably, better well-being. How threatened do Iraqi adolescents feel? Is their self-esteem related…

Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.

PubMed

Shryock, Daniel F; Esque, Todd C; Hughes, Lee

2014-11-01

A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events. © 2014 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

PubMed

Alcasena, Fermín J; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

10 CFR Appendix G to Part 73 - Reportable Safeguards Events

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Reportable Safeguards Events G Appendix G to Part 73.... G Appendix G to Part 73—Reportable Safeguards Events Pursuant to the provisions of 10 CFR 73.71 (b.... (b) Any other threatened, attempted, or committed act not previously defined in appendix G with the...

10 CFR Appendix G to Part 73 - Reportable Safeguards Events

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Reportable Safeguards Events G Appendix G to Part 73.... G Appendix G to Part 73—Reportable Safeguards Events Pursuant to the provisions of 10 CFR 73.71 (b.... (b) Any other threatened, attempted, or committed act not previously defined in appendix G with the...

10 CFR Appendix G to Part 73 - Reportable Safeguards Events

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Reportable Safeguards Events G Appendix G to Part 73.... G Appendix G to Part 73—Reportable Safeguards Events Pursuant to the provisions of 10 CFR 73.71 (b.... (b) Any other threatened, attempted, or committed act not previously defined in appendix G with the...

10 CFR Appendix G to Part 73 - Reportable Safeguards Events

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Reportable Safeguards Events G Appendix G to Part 73.... G Appendix G to Part 73—Reportable Safeguards Events Pursuant to the provisions of 10 CFR 73.71 (b.... (b) Any other threatened, attempted, or committed act not previously defined in appendix G with the...

Identifiability and identification of trace continuous pollutant source.

PubMed

Qu, Hongquan; Liu, Shouwen; Pang, Liping; Hu, Tao

2014-01-01

Accidental pollution events often threaten people's health and lives, and a pollutant source is very necessary so that prompt remedial actions can be taken. In this paper, a trace continuous pollutant source identification method is developed to identify a sudden continuous emission pollutant source in an enclosed space. The location probability model is set up firstly, and then the identification method is realized by searching a global optimal objective value of the location probability. In order to discuss the identifiability performance of the presented method, a conception of a synergy degree of velocity fields is presented in order to quantitatively analyze the impact of velocity field on the identification performance. Based on this conception, some simulation cases were conducted. The application conditions of this method are obtained according to the simulation studies. In order to verify the presented method, we designed an experiment and identified an unknown source appearing in the experimental space. The result showed that the method can identify a sudden trace continuous source when the studied situation satisfies the application conditions.

Effect of the Holocaust on coping with cancer.

PubMed

Baider, L; Peretz, T; Kaplan De-Nour, A

1992-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate whether surviving stressful life threatening situations influences coping with new stressful life threatening situations. The study group, therefore, was composed of 53 cancer patients (present life threatening situation) who had survived the Holocaust (past life threatening situation). They were compared to 53 cancer patients who had not gone through the Holocaust, matched for sociodemographic and medical background. The Holocaust survivors were unable to mobilize partial denial (had significantly higher scores on the Impact of Events Scale) and their psychological distress was much higher (significantly higher scores on the Brief Symptom Inventory). Their functioning however (as reported along the Psychosocial Adjustment to Physical Illness Scale) did not significantly differ from that of the comparison group. The possible mechanisms for these long term effects of past trauma are discussed as well as the need to regard traumatized persons as 'high risk' psychologically when they have to cope with new life threatening situations.

Genomic Selection Improves Heat Tolerance in Dairy Cattle

PubMed Central

Garner, J. B.; Douglas, M. L.; Williams, S. R. O; Wales, W. J.; Marett, L. C.; Nguyen, T. T. T.; Reich, C. M.; Hayes, B. J.

2016-01-01

Dairy products are a key source of valuable proteins and fats for many millions of people worldwide. Dairy cattle are highly susceptible to heat-stress induced decline in milk production, and as the frequency and duration of heat-stress events increases, the long term security of nutrition from dairy products is threatened. Identification of dairy cattle more tolerant of heat stress conditions would be an important progression towards breeding better adapted dairy herds to future climates. Breeding for heat tolerance could be accelerated with genomic selection, using genome wide DNA markers that predict tolerance to heat stress. Here we demonstrate the value of genomic predictions for heat tolerance in cohorts of Holstein cows predicted to be heat tolerant and heat susceptible using controlled-climate chambers simulating a moderate heatwave event. Not only was the heat challenge stimulated decline in milk production less in cows genomically predicted to be heat-tolerant, physiological indicators such as rectal and intra-vaginal temperatures had reduced increases over the 4 day heat challenge. This demonstrates that genomic selection for heat tolerance in dairy cattle is a step towards securing a valuable source of nutrition and improving animal welfare facing a future with predicted increases in heat stress events. PMID:27682591

Secular trends and smoke-free policy development in rural Kentucky

PubMed Central

Fallin, Amanda; Parker, Lindsay; Lindgreen, Janine; Riker, Carol; Kercsmar, Sarah; Hahn, Ellen J.

2011-01-01

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and pulmonary disorders. Smoke-free policies are the most effective way to prevent exposure to SHS. A 5-year community-based randomized control trial (RCT) is in progress to assess factors associated with smoke-free policy development in rural communities. Considering secular trends is critical when conducting community-based RCTs as they may threaten the internal validity of the study. For the purposes of this paper, secular trends are defined as patterns or recurring events that are not directly related to smoke-free policy but have the potential to influence policy development. There are no established protocols to monitor secular trends in the study of smoke-free policy in rural communities. The purpose of this paper is to (i) describe the development of a protocol to identify and monitor secular trends that may threaten the internal validity of a community-based RCT to promote smoke-free policy development and (ii) describe secular trends identified in the first 2 years of the RCT. The sample includes 854 secular events captured from media outlets covering the 40 study counties over the first 2 years of the RCT. Of these 854 events, there were 281 secular events in Year 1 and 573 in Year 2. This paper focuses on five specific categories: ‘tobacco use and cessation activities’, ‘farming’, ‘economics’, ‘city/county infrastructure’ and ‘wellness’. This protocol is a feasible yet time-intensive method of identifying events that may threaten the internal validity of a community-based RCT. PMID:21558440

The List of Threatening Experiences: the reliability and validity of a brief life events questionnaire.

PubMed

Brugha, T S; Cragg, D

1990-07-01

During the 23 years since the original work of Holmes & Rahe, research into stressful life events on human subjects has tended towards the development of longer and more complex inventories. The List of Threatening Experiences (LTE) of Brugha et al., by virtue of its brevity, overcomes difficulties of clinical application. In a study of 50 psychiatric patients and informants, the questionnaire version of the list (LTE-Q) was shown to have high test-retest reliability, and good agreement with informant information. Concurrent validity, based on the criterion of independently rated adversity derived from a semistructured life events interview, making use of the Life Events and Difficulties Scales (LEDS) method developed by Brown & Harris, showed both high specificity and sensitivity. The LTE-Q is particularly recommended for use in psychiatric, psychological and social studies in which other intervening variables such as social support, coping, and cognitive variables are of interest, and resources do not allow for the use of extensive interview measures of stress.

[Implantable ECG recorder revealed the diagnosis in a baby with apparent life-threatening events].

PubMed

Hoorntje, T M; Langerak, W; Blokland-Loggers, H E; Sreeram, N

1999-09-25

A 14-month-old boy went through episodes of cyanosis and brief loss of consciousness. Extensive investigations failed to lead to a diagnosis, until an implanted ECG recorder revealed ECG abnormalities suggestive of strangulation. Interviews with the father and mother showed that this was indeed the case. The diagnosis of 'Münchhausen by proxy' was made. Psychiatric assistance and home help were called in. The child recovered well. If there is a suspicion of arrhythmia as the cause of apparent life-threatening events, prolonged ECG recordings are necessary. In a clinical environment it is possible to make continuous ECG recordings during a limited period. An insertable recorder allows continuous ECG recordings during a syncopal event and can be used for prolonged monitoring. The patient presented is the youngest infant in the world in whom such a device has been implanted.

Cervical abscess: a life-threatening complication of infectious mononucleosis.

PubMed

Westmore, G A

1990-04-01

The former view of infectious mononucleosis as an invariably benign disease has been modified in recent years by reports of life-threatening complications. A case is presented of a deep cervical abscess complicating infectious mononucleosis which came close to a fatal conclusion. The implications for the management of the illness are discussed in the light of this rare event, no exactly similar instance of which has been recorded.

The Dubai Community Psychiatric Survey. IV. Life events, chronic difficulties and psychiatric morbidity.

PubMed

Bebbington, P; Hamdi, E; Ghubash, R

1998-10-01

The relationship between life events, chronic social difficulties and psychiatric morbidity was investigated in 297 women selected at random as part of the Dubai Community Psychiatric Survey. The PSE-ID-CATEGO system was used to identify psychiatric cases, based on an Index of Definition level of 5 or more. Life events in the 6-month period prior to illness or interview were elicited through the Life Events and Difficulties Schedule. Chronic difficulties were explored through direct questioning based on a list of possible problems. The study demonstrates a significant excess of marked and moderately threatening life events in acute cases of psychiatric disorder (50%) compared to chronic cases (16.7%) and non-cases (27.9%). The association was particularly marked for events in the 3-month period before the onset. Around 33% of psychiatric morbidity may be attributed to marked and moderately threatening life events. Rates for mild events were similar in the three groups of subjects. Subjects experiencing chronic social difficulties included a significantly higher proportion of cases (33.3%) than those who did not experience such difficulties (9.1%). The effect of chronic social difficulties was more pronounced than, and independent of, the effects of life events. There were no interactions between life events and vulnerability factors in their effect on psychiatric morbidity, although numbers were small. The results suggest that the overall influence of life events and chronic difficulties on psychiatric morbidity is commensurate with that in Western societies, despite the different coping traditions of Islam.

Life-threatening autoimmune warm hemolytic anemia following treatment for multiple sclerosis with alemtuzumab.

PubMed

Meunier, Benoit; Rico, Audrey; Seguier, Julie; Boutiere, Clemence; Ebbo, Mikael; Harle, Jean Robert; Schleinitz, Nicolas; Pelletier, Jean

2018-05-01

Alemtuzumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody directed at CD52 approved as a disease-modifying therapy for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS). To describe a case of a life-threatening autoimmune anemia occurring after a first course of alemtuzumab for relapsing-remitting MS in a 28-year-old male. Case report. A 28-year-old male developed a life-threatening autoimmune anemia occurring 11 months after first alemtuzumab course. We report the third case of autoimmune hemolytic anemia following treatment with alemtuzumab in a young MS patient. Due to the severity of this adverse event, neurologists using this treatment should be alert.

How to test the threat-simulation theory.

PubMed

Revonsuo, Antti; Valli, Katja

2008-12-01

Malcolm-Smith, Solms, Turnbull and Tredoux [Malcolm-Smith, S., Solms, M.,Turnbull, O., & Tredoux, C. (2008). Threat in dreams: An adaptation? Consciousness and Cognition, 17, 1281-1291.] have made an attempt to test the Threat-Simulation Theory (TST), a theory offering an evolutionary psychological explanation for the function of dreaming [Revonsuo, A. (2000a). The reinterpretation of dreams: An evolutionary hypothesis of the function of dreaming. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23(6), 877-901]. Malcolm-Smith et al. argue that empirical evidence from their own study as well as from some other studies in the literature does not support the main predictions of the TST: that threatening events are frequent and overrepresented in dreams, that exposure to real threats activates the threat-simulation system, and that dream threats contain realistic rehearsals of threat avoidance responses. Other studies, including our own, have come up with results and conclusions that are in conflict with those of Malcolm-Smith et al. In this commentary, we provide an analysis of the sources of these disagreements, and their implications to the TST. Much of the disagreement seems to stem from differing interpretations of the theory and, consequently, of differing methods to test it.

Nitrogen Accumulation and Partitioning in High Arctic Tundra from Extreme Atmospheric N Deposition Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoenix, G. K.; Osborn, A.; Blaud, A.; Press, M. C.; Choudhary, S.

2013-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events. These events occur from the long-range transport of reactive N from pollution sources at lower latitudes and can deposit up to 80% of the annual N deposition in just a few days. To date, the fate and impacts of these extreme pollutant events has remained unknown. Using a field simulation study, we undertook the first assessment of the fate of acutely deposited N on arctic tundra. Extreme N deposition events were simulated on field plots at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79oN) at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g N m-2 yr-1 applied as NH4NO3 solution over 4 days, with 15N tracers used in the second year to quantify the fate of the deposited N in the plant, soil, microbial and leachate pools. Separate applications of 15NO3- and 15NH4+ were also made to determine the importance of N form in the fate of N. Recovery of the 15N tracer at the end of the first growing season approached 100% of the 15N applied irrespective of treatment level, demonstrating the considerable capacity of High Arctic tundra to capture pollutant N from extreme deposition events. Most incorporation of the 15N was found in bryophytes, followed by the dominant vascular plant (Salix polaris) and the microbial biomass of the soil organic layer. Total recovery remained high in the second growing season (average of 90%), indicating highly conservative N retention. Between the two N forms, recovery of 15NO3- and 15NH4+ were equal in the non-vascular plants, whereas in the vascular plants (particularly Salix polaris) recovery of 15NO3- was four times higher than of 15NH4+. Overall, these findings show that High Arctic tundra has considerable capacity to capture and retain the pollutant N deposited in acute extreme deposition events. Given they can represent much of the annual N deposition, extreme deposition events may be more important than increased chronic N deposition as a pollution source. Furthermore, current extreme N deposition events -and the predicted future increase in extreme deposition events- may represent an important source of eutrophication to 'pristine' arctic tundra.

EMERGENCY BRAKING IN ADULTS VERSUS NOVICE TEEN DRIVERS: RESPONSE TO SIMULATED SUDDEN DRIVING EVENTS.

PubMed

Loeb, Helen S; Kandadai, Venk; McDonald, Catherine C; Winston, Flaura K

Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of death in teens in the United States. Newly licensed drivers are the group most at risk for crashes. Their driving skills are very new, still very often untested, so that their ability to properly react in an emergency situation remains a research question. Since it is impossible to expose human subjects to critical life threatening driving scenarios, researchers have been increasingly using driving simulators to assess driving skills. This paper summarizes the results of a driving scenario in a study comparing the driving performance of novice teen drivers (n=21) 16-17 year olds with 90 days of provisional licensure with that of experienced adult drivers (n=17) 25-50 year olds with at least 5 years of PA licensure, at least 100 miles driven per week and no self-reported collisions in the previous 3 years. As part of a 30 to 35 simulated drive that encompassed the most common scenarios that result in serious crashes, participants were exposed to a sudden car event. As the participant drove on a suburban road, a car surged from a driveway hidden by a fence on the right side of the road. To avoid the crash, participants must hard brake, exhibiting dynamic control over both attentional and motor resources. The results showed strong differences between the experienced adult and novice teen drivers in the brake pressure applied. When placed in the same situation, the novice teens decelerated on average 50% less than the experienced adults (p<0.01).

EMERGENCY BRAKING IN ADULTS VERSUS NOVICE TEEN DRIVERS: RESPONSE TO SIMULATED SUDDEN DRIVING EVENTS

PubMed Central

Kandadai, Venk; McDonald, Catherine C.; Winston, Flaura K.

2015-01-01

Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of death in teens in the United States. Newly licensed drivers are the group most at risk for crashes. Their driving skills are very new, still very often untested, so that their ability to properly react in an emergency situation remains a research question. Since it is impossible to expose human subjects to critical life threatening driving scenarios, researchers have been increasingly using driving simulators to assess driving skills. This paper summarizes the results of a driving scenario in a study comparing the driving performance of novice teen drivers (n=21) 16–17 year olds with 90 days of provisional licensure with that of experienced adult drivers (n=17) 25–50 year olds with at least 5 years of PA licensure, at least 100 miles driven per week and no self-reported collisions in the previous 3 years. As part of a 30 to 35 simulated drive that encompassed the most common scenarios that result in serious crashes, participants were exposed to a sudden car event. As the participant drove on a suburban road, a car surged from a driveway hidden by a fence on the right side of the road. To avoid the crash, participants must hard brake, exhibiting dynamic control over both attentional and motor resources. The results showed strong differences between the experienced adult and novice teen drivers in the brake pressure applied. When placed in the same situation, the novice teens decelerated on average 50% less than the experienced adults (p<0.01). PMID:26709330

Impact of near-death experiences on dialysis patients: a multicenter collaborative study.

PubMed

Lai, Chun-Fu; Kao, Tze-Wah; Wu, Ming-Shiou; Chiang, Shou-Shang; Chang, Chung-Hsin; Lu, Chia-Sheng; Yang, Chwei-Shiun; Yang, Chih-Ching; Chang, Hong-Wei; Lin, Shuei-Liong; Chang, Chee-Jen; Chen, Pei-Yuan; Wu, Kwan-Dun; Tsai, Tun-Jun; Chen, Wang-Yu

2007-07-01

People who have come close to death may report an unusual experience known as a near-death experience (NDE). This study aims to investigate NDEs and their aftereffects in dialysis patients. Cross-sectional study. 710 dialysis patients at 7 centers in Taipei, Taiwan. Demographic characteristics, life-threatening experience, depression, and religiosity. NDE and self-perceived changes in attitudes or behaviors. Greyson's NDE scale, Royal Free Questionnaire, 10-Question Survey, Ring's Weighted Core Experience Index, and Beck Depression Inventory. 45 patients had 51 NDEs. Mean NDE score was 11.9 (95% confidence interval, 11.0 to 12.9). Out-of-body experience was found in 51.0% of NDEs. Purported precognitive visions, awareness of being dead, and "tunnel experience" were uncommon (<10%). Compared with the no-NDE group, subjects in the NDE group were more likely to be women and younger at life-threatening events. Both frequency of participation in religious ceremonies and pious religious activity correlated significantly with NDE score in patients with NDEs (P < 0.01 and P = 0.01, respectively). The NDE group reported being kinder to others (P = 0.04) and more motivated (P = 0.02) after their life-threatening events than the no-NDE group. Determining the incidence of NDEs is dependent on self-reporting. Many NDEs occurred before the patient began long-term dialysis therapy. Causality between NDE and aftereffects cannot be inferred. NDE is not uncommon in the dialysis population and is associated with positive aftereffects. Nephrology care providers should be aware of the occurrence and aftereffects of NDEs. The high occurrence of life-threatening events, availability of medical records, and accessibility and cooperativeness of patients make the dialysis population very suitable for NDE research.

[Severe apparent life-threatening event during "skin-to-skin": treatment with hypothermia].

PubMed

Marin, N; Valverde, E; Cabañas, F

2013-10-01

'Skin-to-skin' in healthy newborn infants is currently routine practice in Spanish maternity wards. This practice has shown benefits in increasing the duration of breast-feeding and maternal bonding behaviour with no significant adverse events. Early sudden deaths and severe apparent life-threatening events (ALTE) during the first 24 hours of life are infrequent, but well recognised. Risk factors during 'skin to skin' have been established. These events can lead to high neonatal morbidity and mortality. Hypothermia is now the standard of care for moderate to severe hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy and has shown to reduce mortality and neurological morbidity in children with hypoxic-ischaemic brain injury. Although there are no clinical trials that evaluate hypothermia after a severe ALTE, neonates who suffer it should be considered for this treatment. We present a case of a healthy newborn who had an ALTE during skin-to-skin with his mother and was treated with hypothermia. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Life-threatening event reduces subjective well-being through activating avoidance motivation: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Van Dijk, Dina; Seger-Guttmann, Tali; Heller, Daniel

2013-04-01

Drawing on the approach-avoidance theory, we have examined the role of avoidance motivation in explaining the negative effects of a life-threatening event on subjective well-being (SWB). Residents of the south of Israel were surveyed during heavy missile attacks in January 2009 (T1; n = 283), and again after 6 months (T2; n = 212) and 1 year (T3; n = 154). During the missile attacks, we also surveyed a group from the center of the country (T1; n = 102), not exposed to the attacks. The results indicate that avoidance motivation was activated by the life threat and further mediated its detrimental influence on SWB measures (positive/negative affects, anxiety, and subjective health). Moreover, within the southern sample, the drop in avoidance motivation over time mediated the parallel drop in SWB. In contrast to avoidance motivation, approach motivation remained stable over time and was related to positive emotions. The role of avoidance and approach motivations in life-threatening situations is further discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reactions to threatening health messages.

PubMed

Ten Hoor, Gill A; Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Y; Kalagi, Janice; de Groot, Lianne; Grootjans, Karlijne; Huschens, Alexander; Köhninger, Constanze; Kölgen, Lizan; Pelssers, Isabelle; Schütt, Toby; Thomas, Sophia; Ruiter, Robert A C; Kok, Gerjo

2012-11-21

Threatening health messages that focus on severity are popular, but frequently have no effect or even a counterproductive effect on behavior change. This paradox (i.e. wide application despite low effectiveness) may be partly explained by the intuitive appeal of threatening communication: it may be hard to predict the defensive reactions occurring in response to fear appeals. We examine this hypothesis by using two studies by Brown and colleagues, which provide evidence that threatening health messages in the form of distressing imagery in anti-smoking and anti-alcohol campaigns cause defensive reactions. We simulated both Brown et al. experiments, asking participants to estimate the reactions of the original study subjects to the threatening health information (n = 93). Afterwards, we presented the actual original study outcomes. One week later, we assessed whether this knowledge of the actual study outcomes helped participants to more successfully estimate the effectiveness of the threatening health information (n = 72). Results showed that participants were initially convinced of the effectiveness of threatening health messages and were unable to anticipate the defensive reactions that in fact occurred. Furthermore, these estimates did not improve after participants had been explained the dynamics of threatening communication as well as what the effects of the threatening communication had been in reality. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the effectiveness of threatening health messages is intuitively appealing. What is more, providing empirical evidence against the use of threatening health messages has very little effect on this intuitive appeal.

Reactions to threatening health messages

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Threatening health messages that focus on severity are popular, but frequently have no effect or even a counterproductive effect on behavior change. This paradox (i.e. wide application despite low effectiveness) may be partly explained by the intuitive appeal of threatening communication: it may be hard to predict the defensive reactions occurring in response to fear appeals. We examine this hypothesis by using two studies by Brown and colleagues, which provide evidence that threatening health messages in the form of distressing imagery in anti-smoking and anti-alcohol campaigns cause defensive reactions. Methods We simulated both Brown et al. experiments, asking participants to estimate the reactions of the original study subjects to the threatening health information (n = 93). Afterwards, we presented the actual original study outcomes. One week later, we assessed whether this knowledge of the actual study outcomes helped participants to more successfully estimate the effectiveness of the threatening health information (n = 72). Results Results showed that participants were initially convinced of the effectiveness of threatening health messages and were unable to anticipate the defensive reactions that in fact occurred. Furthermore, these estimates did not improve after participants had been explained the dynamics of threatening communication as well as what the effects of the threatening communication had been in reality. Conclusions These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the effectiveness of threatening health messages is intuitively appealing. What is more, providing empirical evidence against the use of threatening health messages has very little effect on this intuitive appeal. PMID:23171445

Late effects in childhood cancer survivors: a review with a framing effect bias?

PubMed

Fryer, Christopher

2011-12-15

Most publications report the adverse (negative) health issues in childhood cancer survivors. Presenting information to the newly diagnosed patient in a positive manner is advocated, while noting that recurrence is the most likely adverse event. Re-analysis of population-based studies on life-threatening toxicities from Nordic, Dutch, United Kingdom, French, Italian, and N. American publications shows that 5-year survivors have a near normal life expectancy, 75% have no severe or life-threatening treatment related toxicity and 87% remain free of a second malignancy. Children who received radiation or anthracycline >250-300 mg/m(2) are at greatest risk for treatment related life-threatening toxicities. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Three-dimensional simulation of a rock slide impact into water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, R.; Gisler, G.; Gittings, M.; Ranta, D.

2007-12-01

The steep-sided fjords of western Norway have experienced numerous rock slide events that sometimes produced devastating tsunamis. The 1934 slide in the Tafjord region, when some 3 million cubic meters of rock plunged into the water, resulted in waves tens of meters high that destroyed two villages and killed about 40 people. A similarly dangerous situation exists now in Sunnylvsfjord, where a major expanding crack in the fjord wall at Aknes threatens to release from 5 to 40 million cubic meters of rock into the water. Such an event would devastate a large region, including the Geiranger Fjord, a UN World Heritage Site that is extremely popular with tourists. The Norwegian Government's Aknes-Tafjord project is responsible for studying and monitoring the potential slide area and for providing adequate warning to protect lives and property. In order to better understand tsunami generation from such events, we have performed 3-dimensional fully compressible hydrodynamical simulations of the impact of a large number of boulders from a steep slope into a deep body of water. We use the Los Alamos/SAIC adaptive-mesh-refined SAGE code, previously used to model tsunamis from underwater explosions, asteroid impacts, and both subaqueous and subaerial landslide sources. We find the interaction of boulders and water to be extremely turbulent and dissipative. It differs markedly from simulations of large-block impacts in similar geometry. No more than about 15% of the potential energy of the boulders ends up in the water wave. The rest of the energy goes into heating the boulders (and presumably fragmenting them, though that physics is not included) into generating winds, heating air and water, and generating turbulence. In the near field, the waves produced by the impact can be quite high -- tens of meters -- and have the potential to devastate coastlines at substantial distances from the site along a narrow fjord system.

Three-Dimensional Simulation of Avalanche-Generated Impulse Waves and Evaluation of Lake-Lowering Scenarios at Lake Palcacocha, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.

2014-12-01

Accelerated retreat of Andean glaciers in recent decades due to a warming climate has caused the emergence and growth of glacial lakes. As these lakes continue to grow, they pose an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). GLOFs can be triggered by moraine failures or by avalanches, rockslides, or ice calving into glacial lakes. For many decades Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru has threatened citizens living in the city of Huaraz which was devastated by a GLOF in 1941. A safety system for Lake Palcacocha was put in place in the 1970's to control the lake level, but the lake has since grown to the point where it is once again dangerous. Overhanging ice from the glaciers above and a relatively low freeboard make the lake vulnerable to avalanches and landslides. Lake Palcacocha is used as a case study to investigate the impact of an avalanche event on the lake dynamics. Three-dimensional lake modeling in the context of glacial hazards is not common, but 3D simulations can enhance our understanding of avalanche-generated impulse waves and their downstream impacts. In this work, a 3D hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the generation of an impulse wave from an avalanche falling into the lake, wave propagation, and overtopping of the terminal moraine. These results are used as inputs to a downstream model to predict the impact from a GLOF. As lowering the level of the lake is the most likely mitigation alternative, several scenarios are considered to evaluate the impact from avalanche events with a reduction in the lake level. The results of this work can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the current lake management system and potential lake-lowering alternatives. Use of a robust 3D lake model enables more accurate predictions of peak flows during GLOF events and the time scales of these events so that mitigation strategies can be developed that reduce the risk to communities living downstream of hazardous lakes.

Identifiability and Identification of Trace Continuous Pollutant Source

PubMed Central

Qu, Hongquan; Liu, Shouwen; Pang, Liping; Hu, Tao

2014-01-01

Accidental pollution events often threaten people's health and lives, and a pollutant source is very necessary so that prompt remedial actions can be taken. In this paper, a trace continuous pollutant source identification method is developed to identify a sudden continuous emission pollutant source in an enclosed space. The location probability model is set up firstly, and then the identification method is realized by searching a global optimal objective value of the location probability. In order to discuss the identifiability performance of the presented method, a conception of a synergy degree of velocity fields is presented in order to quantitatively analyze the impact of velocity field on the identification performance. Based on this conception, some simulation cases were conducted. The application conditions of this method are obtained according to the simulation studies. In order to verify the presented method, we designed an experiment and identified an unknown source appearing in the experimental space. The result showed that the method can identify a sudden trace continuous source when the studied situation satisfies the application conditions. PMID:24892041

Adverse life events and health: a population study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Karatzias, Thanos; Yan, Elsie; Jowett, Sally

2015-02-01

Although the effects of adverse life events on mental health have been well documented in the literature, there has never been a population based study that investigated systematically the association between history of adverse life events and physical health (objective and subjective) in adults. Cross-sectional, face-to-face household population based survey of adults (18+) in Hong Kong (N=1147). Participants were asked if they had a diagnosis of six health conditions including hypertension, heart disease, arthritis, diabetes, eyesight degeneration, and hearing loss. They were also asked if they had experienced five adverse life events including death of a partner or spouse, abuse, natural disaster, life threatening illness or injury, and family disruption. Interviews also included the Short-Form 12 Health Survey (SFHS-12) and the short version of the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Overall, results indicate that specific adverse life events may be associated with specific health conditions. However, all tested life events were associated with subjective physical and mental health. Death of partner or parent and life threatening illness or injury were found to have the strongest association with physical health problems. A dose-response relationship between adverse life events and physical health in general was evident but more so for heart disease and eyesight degeneration. Considering the high prevalence of traumatic events and how common the conditions associated with such events are in the general population, screening for adverse life events as part of comprehensive assessment will allow a deeper understanding of patients' needs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The epidemiology of traumatic event exposure worldwide: results from the World Mental Health Survey Consortium.

PubMed

Benjet, C; Bromet, E; Karam, E G; Kessler, R C; McLaughlin, K A; Ruscio, A M; Shahly, V; Stein, D J; Petukhova, M; Hill, E; Alonso, J; Atwoli, L; Bunting, B; Bruffaerts, R; Caldas-de-Almeida, J M; de Girolamo, G; Florescu, S; Gureje, O; Huang, Y; Lepine, J P; Kawakami, N; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Medina-Mora, M E; Navarro-Mateu, F; Piazza, M; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Shalev, A; Slade, T; ten Have, M; Torres, Y; Viana, M C; Zarkov, Z; Koenen, K C

2016-01-01

Considerable research has documented that exposure to traumatic events has negative effects on physical and mental health. Much less research has examined the predictors of traumatic event exposure. Increased understanding of risk factors for exposure to traumatic events could be of considerable value in targeting preventive interventions and anticipating service needs. General population surveys in 24 countries with a combined sample of 68 894 adult respondents across six continents assessed exposure to 29 traumatic event types. Differences in prevalence were examined with cross-tabulations. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted to determine whether traumatic event types clustered into interpretable factors. Survival analysis was carried out to examine associations of sociodemographic characteristics and prior traumatic events with subsequent exposure. Over 70% of respondents reported a traumatic event; 30.5% were exposed to four or more. Five types - witnessing death or serious injury, the unexpected death of a loved one, being mugged, being in a life-threatening automobile accident, and experiencing a life-threatening illness or injury - accounted for over half of all exposures. Exposure varied by country, sociodemographics and history of prior traumatic events. Being married was the most consistent protective factor. Exposure to interpersonal violence had the strongest associations with subsequent traumatic events. Given the near ubiquity of exposure, limited resources may best be dedicated to those that are more likely to be further exposed such as victims of interpersonal violence. Identifying mechanisms that account for the associations of prior interpersonal violence with subsequent trauma is critical to develop interventions to prevent revictimization.

Life After the Event: A Review of Basic Life Support Training for Parents Following Apparent Life-Threatening Events and Their Experience and Practices Following Discharge.

PubMed

Macken, W L; Clarke, N; Nadeem, M; Coghlan, D

2017-05-10

Apparent Life-Threatening Events (ALTEs) are a common presentation to paediatric hospitals and represent a significant cause of parental anxiety. Basic Life Support (BLS) training is recommended for all caregivers following ALTEs. This study aimed to assess the rate of caregiver BLS training and reviewed parents experience following discharge. Parents were interviewed by phone following discharge. Over the study period 25 children attended the Emergency Department with ALTE, 17/25 (68%) were trained and 13/17 (76%) were contactable for interview. All parents found training decreased their anxiety level and were interested in attending for re-training. BLS resuscitation was subsequently required by 2/13 (15%) of children. Non-medical grade monitors were in use by 10/13 (77%) of caregivers following discharge. Caregivers are eager to engage in BLS training and it effectively reduces their caregiver anxiety. We recommend an increase in instructor staff and use of group re-training post discharge.

Aspirin Versus Aspirin Plus Clopidogrel as Antithrombotic Treatment Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement With a Balloon-Expandable Valve: The ARTE (Aspirin Versus Aspirin + Clopidogrel Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation) Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Rodés-Cabau, Josep; Masson, Jean-Bernard; Welsh, Robert C; Garcia Del Blanco, Bruno; Pelletier, Marc; Webb, John G; Al-Qoofi, Faisal; Généreux, Philippe; Maluenda, Gabriel; Thoenes, Martin; Paradis, Jean-Michel; Chamandi, Chekrallah; Serra, Vicenç; Dumont, Eric; Côté, Mélanie

2017-07-10

The aim of this study was to compare aspirin plus clopidogrel with aspirin alone as antithrombotic treatment following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for the prevention of ischemic events, bleeding events, and death. Few data exist on the optimal antithrombotic therapy following TAVR. This was a randomized controlled trial comparing aspirin (80 to 100 mg/day) plus clopidogrel (75 mg/day) (dual antiplatelet therapy [DAPT]) versus aspirin alone (single-antiplatelet therapy [SAPT]) in patients undergoing TAVR with a balloon-expandable valve. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or transient ischemic attack, or major or life-threatening bleeding (according to Valve Academic Research Consortium 2 definitions) within the 3 months following the procedure. The trial was prematurely stopped after the inclusion of 74% of the planned study population. A total of 222 patients were included, 111 allocated to DAPT and 111 to SAPT. The composite of death, MI, stroke or transient ischemic attack, or major or life-threatening bleeding tended to occur more frequently in the DAPT group (15.3% vs. 7.2%, p = 0.065). There were no differences between groups in the occurrence of death (DAPT, 6.3%; SAPT, 3.6%; p = 0.37), MI (DAPT, 3.6%; SAT, 0.9%; p = 0.18), or stroke or transient ischemic attack (DAPT, 2.7%; SAPT, 0.9%; p = 0.31) at 3 months. DAPT was associated with a higher rate of major or life-threatening bleeding events (10.8% vs. 3.6% in the SAPT group, p = 0.038). There were no differences between groups in valve hemodynamic status post-TAVR. This small trial showed that SAPT (vs. DAPT) tended to reduce the occurrence of major adverse events following TAVR. SAPT reduced the risk for major or life-threatening events while not increasing the risk for MI or stroke. Larger studies are needed to confirm these results. (Aspirin Versus Aspirin + Clopidogrel Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: The ARTE Trial [ARTE], NCT01559298; Aspirin Versus Aspirin+Clopidogrel as Antithrombotic Treatment Following TAVI [ARTE], NCT02640794). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Value of brain MR imaging in infants with a severe idiopathic apparent life threatening event].

PubMed

Christophe, C; Boutemy, R; Christiaens, F; Fonteyne, C; Ziereisen, F; Dan, B

2000-01-01

Prognostic value of a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scoring system in infants with a severe apparent life threatening event (ALTE). Ten infants with an ALTE (aged between 6 and 31 weeks) were clinically graded according to the PRISM score and evaluated with EEG, evoked potentials and MRI. The 18 MRIs obtained were distributed in 3 classes according to the delay after which they were obtained; class A (n=5): within the first 48 hours after the event, class B (n=7): between day 3 and 8 and class C (n=6): between day 9 and 50. The 18 MRIs were evaluated retrospectively using a scoring system based on 3 categories of lesions: edema, basal ganglia injury and watershed injuries. Five infants died between day 2 and day 15 after the event. The five surviving infants had follow up neurodevelopmental testing after 38 to 77 months. There was no correlation between the 5 MRIs of class A and the neurological outcome. For the MRIs of class B and C, the scoring system can be of great value when combined with the scores of EEG, EP and PRISM. The scoring system for MRI performed within 48 hours after the event is falsely reassuring. MRI can be helpful as early as 3 days after the event when combined with the score of the electrophysiological investigations and the PRISM.

Coping with the Stress of Potential Lay-Off and Worksite Re-Organization: A Test of the Buffering Hypothesis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinberg, Richard B.

Two major classes of environmental stressors have been examined in life stress research: major life events and minor everyday hassles. To compare these two classes of stressors along with two stressful life events (threatened job loss and reorganization of the work setting), and to investigate the buffering effect of coping responses on…

Sudden Cardiac Arrest in Athletic Medicine

PubMed Central

Kyle, James M.; Ellis, James M.; Cantwell, John; Courson, Ron; Medlin, Ron

2001-01-01

Objective: To emphasize the importance of decreasing the response time by a trained target responder to increase the survival rate among athletes experiencing sudden cardiac arrest at an athletic event. Background: Death due to sudden cardiac arrest that is witnessed is preventable in many cases. However, most people who experience this condition die because of a prolonged response time from onset of the fatal arrhythmia to defibrillation by trained treatment providers. If athletic trainers or other members of the athletic care medical team are trained as target responders and equipped with automated electronic defibrillators, they can immediately treat an athlete who experiences a sudden, life-threatening tachyarrhythmia. This prompt response to the life-threatening emergency should result in a higher survival rate. Description: We review the causes of sudden cardiac arrest during athletic events, note some unusual clinical presentations, discuss improved methods of response and new equipment for treatment, and define the athletic trainer's role as a target responder trained to treat people experiencing sudden cardiac arrest at an athletic event. Clinical Advantages: An athletic care team willing to become part of an emergency response team can help improve the survival rate of athletes experiencing sudden cardiac arrest at an athletic event. PMID:12937464

Birth seasonality and offspring production in threatened neotropical primates related to climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, R.; Post, E.

2011-01-01

Given the threatened status of many primate species, the impacts of global warming on primate reproduction and, consequently, population growth should be of concern. We examined relations between climatic variability and birth seasonality, offspring production, and infant sex ratios in two ateline primates, northern muriquis, and woolly monkeys. In both species, the annual birth season was delayed by dry conditions and El Ni??o years, and delayed birth seasons were linked to lower birth rates. Additionally, increased mean annual temperatures were associated with lower birth rates for northern muriquis. Offspring sex ratios varied with climatic conditions in both species, but in different ways: directly in woolly monkeys and indirectly in northern muriquis. Woolly monkeys displayed an increase in the proportion of males among offspring in association with El Ni??o events, whereas in northern muriquis, increases in the proportion of males among offspring were associated with delayed onset of the birth season, which itself was related, although weakly, to warm, dry conditions. These results illustrate that global warming, increased drought frequency, and changes in the frequency of El Ni??o events could limit primate reproductive output, threatening the persistence and recovery of ateline primate populations. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The use of data-mining techniques for developing effective decisionsupport systems: A case study of simulating the effects ofclimate change on coastal salinity intrusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Edwin Roehl, Jr.

2017-01-01

Natural-resource managers and stakeholders face difficult challenges when managing interactions between natural and societal systems. Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. The availability of freshwater in coastal streams can be threatened by saltwater intrusion. Even though the collective interests and computer skills of the community of managers, scientists and other stakeholders are quite varied, there is an overarching need for equal access by all to the scientific knowledge needed to make the best possible decisions. This paper describes a decision support system, PRISM-2, developed to evaluate salinity intrusion due to potential climate change along the South Carolina coast in southeastern USA. The decision support system is disseminated as a spreadsheet application and integrates the output of global circulation models, watershed models and salinity intrusion models with real-time databases for simulation, graphical user interfaces, and streaming displays of results. The results from PRISM-2 showed that a 31-cm and 62-cm increase in sea level reduced the daily availability of freshwater supply to a coastal municipal intake by 4% and 12% of the time, respectively. Future climate change projections by a global circulation model showed a seasonal change in salinity intrusion events from the summer to the fall for the majority of events.

Platelet activation is a key event in the pathogenesis of streptococcal infections.

PubMed

Jia, Ming; Xiong, Yuling; Lu, Hua; Li, Ruqing; Wang, Tiantian; Ye, Yanyao; Song, Min; Li, Bing; Jiang, Tianlun; Zhao, Shuming

2015-06-01

Diverse Streptococcus species including Streptococcus Pneumoniae, Sanguis, Gordonii, Mitis and Mutans cause life-threatening conditions including pneumonia, bacteremia and meningitis. These diseases bear a high morbidity and mortality and for this reason, understanding the key events in the pathogenesis of these infections have a great significance in their prevention and/or treatment. Here, we describe as how the activation of the platelets and their affinity to bind to bacterial proteins act as early key events in the pathogenesis of Streptococcal infections.

Partner experiences of "near-miss" events in pregnancy and childbirth in the UK: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Hinton, Lisa; Locock, Louise; Knight, Marian

2014-01-01

Severe life-threatening complications in pregnancy that require urgent medical intervention are commonly known as "near-miss" events. Although these complications are rare (1 in 100 births), there are potentially 8,000 women and their families in the UK each year who live through a life-threatening emergency and its aftermath. Near-miss obstetric emergencies can be traumatic and frightening for women, and their impact can last for years. There is little research that has explored how these events impact on partners. The objective of this interview study was to explore the impact of a near-miss obstetric emergency, focusing particularly on partners. Qualitative study based on narrative interviews, video and audio recorded and transcribed for analysis. A qualitative interpretative approach was taken, combining thematic analysis with constant comparison. The analysis presented here focuses on the experiences of partners. Maximum variation sample included 35 women, 10 male partners, and one lesbian partner who had experienced a life-threatening obstetric emergency. Interviews were conducted in participants' own homes. In the hospital, partner experiences were characterized by powerlessness and exclusion. Partners often found witnessing the emergency shocking and distressing. Support (from family or staff) was very important, and clear, honest communication from medical staff highly valued. The long-term emotional effects for some were profound; some experienced depression, flashbacks and post-traumatic stress disorder months and years after the emergency. These, in turn, affected the whole family. Little support was felt to be available, nor acknowledgement of their ongoing distress. Partners, as well as women giving birth, can be shocked to experience a life-threatening illness in childbirth. While medical staff may view a near-miss as a positive outcome for a woman and her baby, there can be long-term mental health consequences that can have profound impacts on the individual, but also their families.

Threat in dreams: an adaptation?

PubMed

Malcolm-Smith, Susan; Solms, Mark; Turnbull, Oliver; Tredoux, Colin

2008-12-01

Revonsuo's influential Threat Simulation Theory (TST) predicts that people exposed to survival threats will have more threat dreams, and evince enhanced responses to dream threats, compared to those living in relatively safe conditions. Participants in a high crime area (South Africa: n=208) differed significantly from participants in a low crime area (Wales, UK: n=116) in having greater recent exposure to a life-threatening event (chi([1,N=186])(2)=14.84, p<.00012). Contrary to TST's predictions, the SA participants reported significantly fewer threat dreams (chi([1,N=287])(2)=6.11, p<.0134), and did not differ from the Welsh participants in responses to dream threats (Fisher's Exact test, p=.2478). Overall, the incidence of threat in dreams was extremely low-less than 20% of dreams featured realistic survival threats. Escape from dream threats occurred in less than 2% of dreams. We conclude that this evidence contradicts key aspects of TST.

Local Governments Reimbursement Program

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In the event of a release (or threatened release) of hazardous substances, EPA may provide a safety net of up to $25,000 per incident to local governments for expenses related to the release and associated emergency response measures.

Establishing an Environmental Scanning Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

1985-01-01

A formal environmental scanning system designed to identify emerging issues, events, or trends threatening or bringing opportunity to an institution is discussed that uses a committee to systematically collect and analyze data from a variety of sources. (MSE)

Natural Hazards and Climate Change: Making the Link for Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folger, P.

2003-04-01

Debate about global warming in the U.S. Congress often deteriorates when proposals for restricting consumption of fossil fuels, and thus curtailing carbon dioxide emissions, is mentioned. The negative economic implications of curtailing CO2 emissions often stifle Congressional thinking about strategies to deal with climate change. Some policy makers often malign climate change research as irrelevant to their citizens, e.g. why is simulating temperature trends 100 years into the future meaningful to their voters? An alternative approach is to connect climate change with ongoing natural events such as severe weather, drought and floods. These extreme events may or may not be exacerbated by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but policy makers can debate and legislate approaches to mitigate against natural hazards now without mentioning carbon. What strategy might connect research results on understanding climate change and natural hazards mitigation in their minds? 1. Identify a specific situation where a key legislator's voters are threatened or affected by extreme natural phenomena, 2. Suggest a policy approach that provides protection or relief for those constituents, 3. Help the policy maker vet the idea within and without the scientific community, 4.Turn that idea into legislation and advocate for its passage.

Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Esque, Todd C.; Huges, Lee

2014-01-01

• Conclusions: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.

The neural correlates of trait resilience when anticipating and recovering from threat

PubMed Central

Waugh, Christian E.; Wager, Tor D.; Fredrickson, Barbara L.; Noll, Doug C.; Taylor, Stephan F.

2008-01-01

A facet of emotional resilience critical for adapting to adversity is flexible use of emotional resources. We hypothesized that in threatening situations, this emotional flexibility enables resilient people to use emotional resources during appropriately emotional events, and conserve emotional resources during innocuous events. We tested this hypothesis using functional magnetic resonance imaging in a repeated recovery from threat task with low- and high-trait resilient individuals (LowR and HighR, respectively, as measured by ER89). In an event-related design, 13 HighR and 13 LowR participants viewed ‘threat’ cues, which signaled either an aversive or neutral picture with equal probabilities, or ‘nonthreat’ cues, which signaled a neutral picture. Results show that when under threat, LowR individuals exhibited prolonged activation in the anterior insula to both the aversive and neutral pictures, whereas HighR individuals exhibited insula activation only to the aversive pictures. These data provide neural evidence that in threatening situations, resilient people flexibly and appropriately adjust the level of emotional resources needed to meet the demands of the situation. PMID:19015078

Democracy Threatened: India's Emergency of 1975. A Classroom Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rudin, Kelly Bryan

In 1975, India's Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi, declared a state of emergency, temporarily suspending the civil liberties of this country's citizens. This classroom simulation, designed for use in secondary school world history classes, examines the various issues surrounding this declaration of emergency and includes: (1) an introduction to the…

Toward a Typology of High-Risk Major Stressful Events and Situations in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Related Psychopathology

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

The diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was introduced in 1980 with the publication of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of the American Psychiatric Association, Third Edition (DSM-III). DSM-III put forward a novel syndrome consisting of intrusive, avoidance/numbing, and arousal symptoms as distinctive psychopathology following exposure to traumatic events. The traumatic stressors, although expanded in later editions published in 1987 (DSM-III-R) and 1994 (DSM-IV), focus on life-threatening events and situations. However, at least 12 studies, most of them recent, have found associations between the PTSD symptoms and the PTSD symptom syndrome with stressors, such as unemployment and divorce that would not qualify, even in the broadened DSM-IV diagnosis, as traumatic stressors. These findings challenge the basic assumption on which the PTSD diagnosis is based, the assumption that exposure to life-threatening stressors is the primary cause of a unique set of stress response symptoms. The purpose of this paper is to show how to confront this challenge by developing a typology of stressful situations and events that can be tested systematically for their relation to the PTSD symptom syndrome and other relevant variables. The typology includes but is not limited to the types of situations and events defined as “traumatic” in the DSMs. PMID:20975984

INFECUNDITY AND CONSUMPTION OF PCB-CONTAMINATED SPORT FISH

EPA Science Inventory

Biologic capacity for reproduction, or fecundity, may be threatened by environmental contaminants, especially compounds capable of disrupting endocrine pathways. Telephone interviews that focused on reproductive events were conducted with female members of the New York State Angl...

Natural Disasters and Man-Made Catastrophes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lonergan, David

2011-01-01

This article categorizes and discusses the kinds of cataclysmic events that threaten the human race and the natural world. A useful set of definitions is provided, and an annotated bibliography of a representative assortment of reference books and monographs.

Vulnerbility of production wells in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system to saltwater intrusion from the Delaware River in Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Navoy, Anthony S.; Voronin, Lois M.; Modica, Edward

2005-01-01

The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system is hydraulically connected to the Delaware River in parts of Camden and Gloucester Counties, New Jersey, and has more limited contact with the river in Salem County, New Jersey. The aquifer system is used widely for water supply, and 122 production wells that are permitted by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection to pump more than 100,000 gallons per year in the three counties are within 2 miles of the river. During drought, saltwater may encroach upstream from the Atlantic Ocean and Delaware Bay to areas where the aquifer system is recharged by induced infiltration through the Delaware River streambed. During the drought of the mid-1960's, water with a chloride concentration in excess of potability standards (250 mg/L (milligrams per liter)) encroached into the reach of the river that recharges the aquifer system. The vulnerability of the major production wells in the area to similar saltwater encroachment in the future is a concern to water managers. This vulnerability was evaluated by investigating two scenarios: (1) a one-time recurrence of the conditions approximating those that occurred in the1960's, and (2) the recurrence of those same conditions on an annual basis. Results of ground-water-flow simulation in conjunction with particle tracking and one-dimensional transport analysis indicate that the wells that are most vulnerable to saltwater intrusion are those in the Morris and Delair well fields in Camden County. A single 30-day event during which the concentration of dissolved chloride or sodium exceeds 2,098 mg/L or 407 mg/L, respectively, in the Delaware River would threaten the potability of water from these wells, given New Jersey drinking-water standards of 250 mg/L for dissolved chloride and 50 mg/L for dissolved sodium. This chloride concentration is about six times that observed in the river during the 1960's drought. An annually occurring 1-month event during which the concentrations of dissolved chloride or sodium in the river exceeds 1,818 mg/L or 358 mg/L, respectively, would threaten the potability of water from these wells. Wells outside the Morris and Delair well fields are substantially less vulnerable to the intermittent saltwater intrusion that was simulated.

Communication about life-sustaining therapy: insights from the Adaptive Leadership Framework

PubMed Central

Neglia, Elizabeth; Anderson, Ruth A.; Brandon, Debra; Docherty, Sharron L.

2014-01-01

Objective Effective provider and caregiver communication is central to quality care during treatment for life-threatening illnesses. The study aim was to analyze communication patterns between providers and a parent of an infant with a life-threatening disease using the Adaptive Leadership Framework, which is an activity that involves mobilizing others to adapt to a difficult situation. Method A secondary analysis was conducted on one case using 23 interviews with providers and mother of an infant diagnosed with Hurler’s syndrome. The interviews focused on decision-making challenges in regard to the infant’s treatment and were conducted over a 1-year period (pre-transplant, study entry, monthly, after a life-threatening event or substantial change in treatment and at 1-year post enrollment). Content analysis was used to identify and categorize communication patterns using concepts from the Adaptive Leadership Framework. Results Infant illness events and parent-provider caregiving were chronicled across a 1-year trajectory. Despite the life-threatening nature of Hurler’s disease, the parent and providers did not discuss palliative care or end-of-life. The parent sought direction and answers from the providers. The Adaptive Leadership Framework suggested how communication approaches were often mismatched with the needs of the parent. Discussion The results of the study accentuate the need to improve communication between provider and parents about end-of-life for their child. Adaptive Leadership illuminates how providers can influence a parent’s behavior when facing a challenging situation. This study suggests that Adaptive Leadership is a useful framework to guide research about healthcare communication in dealing with challenging issues. PMID:25309745

Real time video analysis to monitor neonatal medical condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvaikar, Mukul; Paydarfar, David; Indic, Premananda

2017-05-01

One in eight live births in the United States is premature and these infants have complications leading to life threatening events such as apnea (pauses in breathing), bradycardia (slowness of heart) and hypoxia (oxygen desaturation). Infant movement pattern has been hypothesized as an important predictive marker for these life threatening events. Thus estimation of movement along with behavioral states, as a precursor of life threatening events, can be useful for risk stratification of infants as well as for effective management of disease state. However, more important and challenging is the determination of the behavioral state of the infant. This information includes important cues such as sleep position and the status of the eyes, which are important markers for neonatal neurodevelopment state. This paper explores the feasibility of using real time video analysis to monitor the condition of premature infants. The image of the infant can be segmented into regions to localize and focus on specific areas of interest. Analysis of the segmented regions can be performed to identify different parts of the body including the face, arms, legs and torso. This is necessary due to real-time processing speed considerations. Such a monitoring system would be of great benefit as an aide to medical staff in neonatal hospital settings requiring constant surveillance. Any such system would have to satisfy extremely stringent reliability and accuracy requirements, before it can be deployed in a hospital care unit, due to obvious reasons. The effect of lighting conditions and interference will have to be mitigated to achieve such performance.

Strengths of the Northwell Health Laboratory Service Line

PubMed Central

Balfour, Erika; Stallone, Robert; Castagnaro, Joseph; Poczter, Hannah; Schron, Deborah; Martone, James; Breining, Dwayne; Simpkins, Henry; Neglia, Tom; Kalish, Paul

2016-01-01

From 2009 to 2015, the laboratories of the 19-hospital North Shore-LIJ Health System experienced 5 threatened interruptions in service and supported 2 regional health-care providers with threatened interruptions in their laboratory service. We report our strategies to maintain laboratory performance during these events, drawing upon the strengths of our integrated laboratory service line. Established in 2009, the laboratory service line has unified medical and administrative leadership and system-wide divisional structure, quality management, and standardization of operations and procedures. Among many benefits, this governance structure enabled the laboratories to respond to a series of unexpected events. Specifically, at our various service sites, the laboratories dealt with pandemic (2009), 2 floods (2010, 2012), 2 fires (2010, 2015), and laboratory floor subsidence (2013). We were also asked to provide support for a regional physician network facing abrupt loss of testing services from closure of another regional clinical laboratory (2010) and to intervene for a non-health system hospital threatened with closure owing to noncompliance of laboratory operations (2012). In all but a single instance, patient care was served without interruption in service. In the last instance, fire interrupted laboratory services for 30 minutes. We conclude that in a large integrated health system, threats to continuous laboratory operations are not infrequent when measured on an annual basis. While most threats are from external physical circumstances, some emanate from unexpected administrative events. A strong laboratory governance mechanism that includes unified medical and administrative leadership across the entirety of the laboratory service line enables successful responses to these threats. PMID:28725768

Hospital management of mass radiological casualties: reassessing exposures from contaminated victims of an exploded radiological dispersal device.

PubMed

Smith, James M; Ansari, Armin; Harper, Frederick T

2005-11-01

One of the key issues in the aftermath of an exploded radiological dispersal device from a terrorist event is that of the contaminated victim and the concern among healthcare providers for the harmful exposures they may receive in treating patients, especially if the patient has not been thoroughly decontaminated. This is critically important in the event of mass casualties from a nuclear or radiological incident because of the essential rapidity of acute medical decisions and that those who have life- or limb-threatening injuries may have treatment unduly delayed by a decontamination process that may be unnecessary for protecting the health and safety of the patient or the healthcare provider. To estimate potential contamination of those exposed in a radiological dispersal device event, results were used from explosive aerosolization tests of surrogate radionuclides detonated with high explosives at the Sandia National Laboratories. Computer modeling was also used to assess radiation dose rates to surgical personnel treating patients with blast injuries who are contaminated with any of a variety of common radionuclides. It is demonstrated that exceptional but plausible cases may require special precautions by the healthcare provider, even while managing life-threatening injuries of a contaminated victim from a radiological dispersal device event.

Working conditions, adverse events and mental health problems in a sample of 949 German teachers.

PubMed

Bauer, Joachim; Unterbrink, Thomas; Hack, Anna; Pfeifer, Ruth; Buhl-Griesshaber, Veronika; Müller, Udo; Wesche, Helmut; Frommhold, Markus; Seibt, Reingard; Scheuch, Klaus; Wirsching, Michael

2007-04-01

The aim of this study was (1) to explore in detail the working load of teachers, (2) to analyse the extent of negative or threatening school-related events teachers are confronted with, and (3) to evaluate mental health strain by applying the general health questionnaire (GHQ). A sample of 949 teachers in 10 grammar schools (German: Gymnasien) and 79 secondary modern schools (German: Hauptschulen) was investigated applying (1) a questionnaire covering different aspects of the occupational burden and threatening school-associated events and (2) the general health questionnaire (GHQ-12). Based on what teachers indicated in the questionnaire, full-time teachers work more than 51 h weekly. More than 42% of our sample indicated verbal insults, almost 7% deliberate damage of personal belongings, and 4.4% threat of violence by pupils during the past 12 months. When applying the GHQ-12, we found that 29.8% of the sample report significant mental health problems. With respect to school types, teachers in secondary modern schools indicated more of such problems, while no effects regarding age, gender, or full/part-time teaching were observed. To be a teacher is a hard work and requires coping of considerable amount of adverse events. Based on the GHQ, nearly 30% of teachers suffer from significant mental health problems.

Social contexts modulate neural responses in the processing of others' pain: An event-related potential study.

PubMed

Cui, Fang; Zhu, Xiangru; Luo, Yuejia

2017-08-01

Two hypotheses have been proposed regarding the response that is triggered by observing others' pain: the "empathizing hypothesis" and the "threat value of pain hypothesis." The former suggests that observing others' pain triggers an empathic response. The latter suggests that it activates the threat-detection system. In the present study, participants were instructed to observe pictures that showed an anonymous hand or foot in a painful or non-painful situation in a threatening or friendly social context. Event-related potentials were recorded when the participants passively observed these pictures in different contexts. We observed an interaction between context and picture in the early automatic N1 component, in which the painful pictures elicited a larger amplitude than the non-painful pictures only in the threatening context and not in the friendly context. We also observed an interaction between context and picture in the late P3 component, in which the painful pictures elicited a larger amplitude than the non-painful pictures only in the friendly context and not in the threatening context. These results indicate that specific social contexts can modulate the neural responses to observing others' pain. The "empathic hypothesis" and "threat value of pain hypothesis" are not mutually exclusive and do not contradict each other but rather work in different temporal stages.

75 FR 74073 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Draft Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-30

... population program HexSim. Though still at preliminary draft stage, population response simulations from this portion of the modeling process are available for public review by request from our office. These simulations do not estimate what will occur in the future, but provide comparative information on potential...

The Big Breach: An Experiential Learning Exercise in Mindful Crisis Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Ryan P.

2016-01-01

Crises threaten high-priority goals of impacted organizations. In the field, trainings range from overviews of crisis plans to full-scale exercises that simulate a crisis. In the classroom, simulations engage multiple learning styles, and allow students to reflect on observations and provide recommendations. The objectives for this unit activity…

Examining Neosho madtom reproductive biology using ultrasound and artificial photothermal cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bryan, J.L.; Wildhaber, M.L.; Noltie, Douglas B.

2005-01-01

We examined whether extended laboratory simulation of natural photothermal conditions could stimulate reproduction in the Neosho madtom Noturus placidus, a federally threatened species. For 3 years, a captive population of Neosho madtoms was maintained under simulated natural conditions and monitored routinely with ultrasound for reproductive condition. Female Neosho madtoms cycled in and out of spawning condition, producing and absorbing oocytes annually. Internal measurements made by means of ultrasound indicated the summer mean oocyte size remained consistent over the years, although estimated fecundity increased with increasing fish length. In the summer of 2001, after 3 years in the simulated natural environment, 13 out of 41 fish participated in 10 spawnings. Simulation of the natural photothermal environment, coupled with within-day temperature fluctuations during the spring rise, seemed important for the spawning of captive Neosho madtoms. The use of ultrasound to assess the reproductive status in Neosho madtoms was effective and resulted in negligible stress or injury to the fish. These procedures may facilitate future culture of this species and other madtoms Noturus spp., especially when species are rare, threatened, or endangered. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Offsetting the impacts of mining to achieve no net loss of native vegetation.

PubMed

Sonter, L J; Barrett, D J; Soares-Filho, B S

2014-08-01

Offsets are a novel conservation tool, yet using them to achieve no net loss of biodiversity is challenging. This is especially true when using conservation offsets (i.e., protected areas) because achieving no net loss requires avoiding equivalent loss. Our objective was to determine if offsetting the impacts of mining achieves no net loss of native vegetation in Brazil's largest iron mining region. We used a land-use change model to simulate deforestation by mining to 2020; developed a model to allocate conservation offsets to the landscape under 3 scenarios (baseline, no new offsets; current practice, like-for-like [by vegetation type] conservation offsetting near the impact site; and threat scenario, like-for-like conservation offsetting of highly threatened vegetation); and simulated nonmining deforestation to 2020 for each scenario to quantify avoided deforestation achieved with offsets. Mines cleared 3570 ha of native vegetation by 2020. Under a 1:4 offset ratio, mining companies would be required to conserve >14,200 ha of native vegetation, doubling the current extent of protected areas in the region. Allocating offsets under current practice avoided deforestation equivalent to 3% of that caused by mining, whereas allocating under the threat scenario avoided 9%. Current practice failed to achieve no net loss because offsets did not conserve threatened vegetation. Explicit allocation of offsets to threatened vegetation also failed because the most threatened vegetation was widely dispersed across the landscape, making conservation logistically difficult. To achieve no net loss with conservation offsets requires information on regional deforestation trajectories and the distribution of threatened vegetation. However, in some regions achieving no net loss through conservation may be impossible. In these cases, other offsetting activities, such as revegetation, will be required. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Synchronous Parallel Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation System with Self-Contained Simulation Objects and Active Event Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

The present invention is embodied in a method of performing object-oriented simulation and a system having inter-connected processor nodes operating in parallel to simulate mutual interactions of a set of discrete simulation objects distributed among the nodes as a sequence of discrete events changing state variables of respective simulation objects so as to generate new event-defining messages addressed to respective ones of the nodes. The object-oriented simulation is performed at each one of the nodes by assigning passive self-contained simulation objects to each one of the nodes, responding to messages received at one node by generating corresponding active event objects having user-defined inherent capabilities and individual time stamps and corresponding to respective events affecting one of the passive self-contained simulation objects of the one node, restricting the respective passive self-contained simulation objects to only providing and receiving information from die respective active event objects, requesting information and changing variables within a passive self-contained simulation object by the active event object, and producing corresponding messages specifying events resulting therefrom by the active event objects.

Society for Vascular Surgery limb stage and patient risk correlate with outcomes in an amputation prevention program.

PubMed

Causey, Marlin W; Ahmed, Ayman; Wu, Bian; Gasper, Warren J; Reyzelman, Alex; Vartanian, Shant M; Hiramoto, Jade S; Conte, Michael S

2016-06-01

Clinical decision making and accurate outcomes comparisons in advanced limb ischemia require improved staging systems. The Society for Vascular Surgery Lower Extremity Threatened Limb Classification System (Wound extent, Ischemia, and foot Infection [WIfI]) was designed to stratify limb outcomes based on three major factors-wound extent, ischemia, and foot infection. The Project or Ex-Vivo vein graft Engineering via Transfection III (PREVENT) III (PIII) risk score was developed to stratify patients by expected amputation-free survival (AFS) after surgical revascularization. This study was designed to prospectively assess limb and patient-based staging for predicting outcomes of hospitalized patients in an amputation prevention program. This study undertook a retrospective analysis of prospectively gathered registry data of consecutive patients with limb-threatening conditions admitted to a fully integrated vascular/podiatry service over a 16-month period. Upon admission, limb risk was stratified using the WIfI system and patient risk was categorized using PIII classification. Patients were assessed for perioperative and postdischarge outcomes, and their relationship to staging at admission was analyzed. There were 174 threatened limbs (143 hospitalized patients) stratified by WIfI stage (1%-12%, 2%-28%, 3%-24%, 4%-28%, 5%-3%, unstaged-5%) and PIII risk (34% low, 49% moderate, and 17% high risk). Diabetes and end-stage renal disease were associated with WIfI stage (P = .006 and P = .018) and PIII risk (P = .003 and P < .001). Perioperative (30-day) events included 3% mortality, 8% major adverse cardiovascular events and 2.4% major amputation. There were 119 limbs (71%) that underwent revascularization, including 108 infrainguinal reconstructions (endovascular or open revascularization). Rate of revascularization increased with WIfI stage (P < .001), concomitant with the number of podiatric procedures, minor amputations, and initial hospital duration of stay (all P < .001). Increased WIfI stage was associated with major adverse limb events (P = .018), reduced limb salvage (P = .037), and decreased AFS (P = .048). In contrast, PIII risk category was associated with mortality (P < .001) and AFS (P < .001). Among infrainguinal reconstruction procedures, there was a similar distribution of endovascular (46%) and surgical (54%) interventions. Freedom from major adverse limb events was best for autogenous vein bypass (P = .025), and surgical revascularization was associated with improved limb salvage among the most severely threatened limbs (WIfI stage 4: 95% limb salvage for open bypass vs 68% limb salvage for endovascular; P = .026). Among patients hospitalized with limb-threatening conditions and treated by a multidisciplinary amputation prevention team, PIII risk correlates with mortality whereas WIfI stage strongly predicts initial hospital duration of stay, and key mid-term limb outcomes. Surgical revascularization performed best in the limbs at greatest risk (WIfI stage 4), and autogenous vein bypass was the preferred conduit for open bypass. These data support the use of WIfI and PIII as complementary staging tools in the management of chronic limb-threatening ischemia. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of topography on groundwater salinization due to ocean surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Koneshloo, Mohammad; O'Neal, Michael A.; Michael, Holly A.

2016-08-01

Sea-level rise and increases in the frequency and intensity of ocean surges caused by climate change are likely to exacerbate adverse effects on low-lying coastal areas. The landward flow of water during ocean surges introduces salt to surficial coastal aquifers and threatens groundwater resources. Coastal topographic features (e.g., ponds, dunes, barrier islands, and channels) likely have a strong impact on overwash and salinization processes, but are generally highly simplified in modeling studies. To understand topographic impacts on groundwater salinization, we modeled a theoretical overwash event and variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport in 3-D using the fully coupled surface and subsurface numerical simulator, HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integrated system considering overland flow, coupled surface and subsurface exchange, variably saturated flow, and variable-density groundwater flow. To represent various coastal landscape types, we simulated both synthetic fields and real-world coastal topography from Delaware, USA. The groundwater salinization assessment suggested that the topographic connectivity promoting overland flow controls the volume of aquifer that is salinized. In contrast, the amount of water that can be stored in surface depressions determines the amount of seawater that infiltrates the subsurface and the time for seawater to flush from the aquifer. Our study suggests that topography has a significant impact on groundwater salinization due to ocean surge overwash, with important implications for coastal land management and groundwater vulnerability assessment.

Fire Safety of Passenger Trains: A Review of U.S. and Foreign Approaches

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-12-01

could develop into potentially life-threatening events. Fire safety is an area of particular interest for both : conventional intercity and commuter trains, as well as new alternative high-speed train technologies. These : technologies include steel-...

Operationalizing Healthcare Simulation Psychological Safety: A Descriptive Analysis of an Intervention.

PubMed

Henricksen, Jared W; Altenburg, Catherine; Reeder, Ron W

2017-10-01

Despite efforts to prepare a psychologically safe environment, simulation participants are occasionally psychologically distressed. Instructing simulation educators about participant psychological risks and having a participant psychological distress action plan available to simulation educators may assist them as they seek to keep all participants psychologically safe. A Simulation Participant Psychological Safety Algorithm was designed to aid simulation educators as they debrief simulation participants perceived to have psychological distress and categorize these events as mild (level 1), moderate (level 2), or severe (level 3). A prebrief dedicated to creating a psychologically safe learning environment was held constant. The algorithm was used for 18 months in an active pediatric simulation program. Data collected included level of participant psychological distress as perceived and categorized by the simulation team using the algorithm, type of simulation that participants went through, who debriefed, and timing of when psychological distress was perceived to occur during the simulation session. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to evaluate the relationship between events and simulation type, events and simulation educator team who debriefed, and timing of event during the simulation session. A total of 3900 participants went through 399 simulation sessions between August 1, 2014, and January 26, 2016. Thirty-four (<1%) simulation participants from 27 sessions (7%) were perceived to have an event. One participant was perceived to have a severe (level 3) psychological distress event. Events occurred more commonly in high-intensity simulations, with novice learners and with specific educator teams. Simulation type and simulation educator team were associated with occurrence of events (P < 0.001). There was no association between event timing and event level. Severe psychological distress as categorized by simulation personnel using the Simulation Participant Psychological Safety Algorithm is rare, with mild and moderate events being more common. The algorithm was used to teach simulation educators how to assist a participant who may be psychologically distressed and document perceived event severity.

Long-term Changes in Habitat Provision by a Temperate Benthic Bioconstructor Threatened by Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocito, S.; Lombardi, C.

2016-02-01

In a wide range of temperate environmental settings, long-lived, carbonate benthic organisms provide the framework of biogenic constructions, which create and maintain habitats and ecological niches for many species. These physical structures provide living space which progressively increases as framework grows. In temperate waters, bryozoans can have reef-constructing roles, and can substitute for corals in abundance and structure. As all bioconstructional species, they are seriously threaten by climate changes and its consequences such as thermal anomalies. The present study provides an assessment of changes in habitat provision by a reef-forming bryozoan dominating sub-tidal rocky reefs in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean) through 9-year time. Large ellipsoidal foliaceous colonies of Pentapora fascialis were monitored in 12 replicated stations (area: 1 m2) at two depths (11 and 22 m) from 1997 to 2005. Variation of living space (i.e. empty colony spaces) was computed by using colony width and high recorded annually. Impacts and long-term consequences of the 1999 and 2003 thermal anomalies were evaluated as changes in empty colony spaces. Over the 9 year monitoring, living space resulted more abundant at the deep stations (2947±617 cm3) than at the shallow ones (1652±494 cm3). Rapid decline in living space (90% and 94% reduction at 11 and 22 m stations, respectively) following the 1999 event was mainly due to the necrosis and reduction of the largest colonies. Differently, after the 2003 thermal anomaly the living space decline occurred gradually during the following 2 years. Interestingly, between the two events, colonies at the deep stations regained living space to pre-disturbance level (5671±1862 cm3) showing higher resilience to disturbance. Detecting effects of extreme events on bioconstructions and associated biota will contribute to the assessment of biodiversity changes and to predict future changes in threatened marine ecosystems.

Life-threatening false alarm rejection in ICU: using the rule-based and multi-channel information fusion method.

PubMed

Liu, Chengyu; Zhao, Lina; Tang, Hong; Li, Qiao; Wei, Shoushui; Li, Jianqing

2016-08-01

False alarm (FA) rates as high as 86% have been reported in intensive care unit monitors. High FA rates decrease quality of care by slowing staff response times while increasing patient burdens and stresses. In this study, we proposed a rule-based and multi-channel information fusion method for accurately classifying the true or false alarms for five life-threatening arrhythmias: asystole (ASY), extreme bradycardia (EBR), extreme tachycardia (ETC), ventricular tachycardia (VTA) and ventricular flutter/fibrillation (VFB). The proposed method consisted of five steps: (1) signal pre-processing, (2) feature detection and validation, (3) true/false alarm determination for each channel, (4) 'real-time' true/false alarm determination and (5) 'retrospective' true/false alarm determination (if needed). Up to four signal channels, that is, two electrocardiogram signals, one arterial blood pressure and/or one photoplethysmogram signal were included in the analysis. Two events were set for the method validation: event 1 for 'real-time' and event 2 for 'retrospective' alarm classification. The results showed that 100% true positive ratio (i.e. sensitivity) on the training set were obtained for ASY, EBR, ETC and VFB types, and 94% for VTA type, accompanied by the corresponding true negative ratio (i.e. specificity) results of 93%, 81%, 78%, 85% and 50% respectively, resulting in the score values of 96.50, 90.70, 88.89, 92.31 and 64.90, as well as with a final score of 80.57 for event 1 and 79.12 for event 2. For the test set, the proposed method obtained the score of 88.73 for ASY, 77.78 for EBR, 89.92 for ETC, 67.74 for VFB and 61.04 for VTA types, with the final score of 71.68 for event 1 and 75.91 for event 2.

Meet TOM - the world's first open chest paediatric/adult manikin.

PubMed

Dix, Ann

2016-07-20

Aged 15, TOM is a model patient. He has suffered more than his fair share of life-threatening events and never complains. But then TOM is not your average sick teenager - he is the world's first open chest paediatric/adult manikin.

Iraqi adolescents: self-regard, self-derogation, and perceived threat in war.

PubMed

Carlton-Ford, Steve; Ender, Morten G; Tabatabai, Ahoo

2008-02-01

A year into the 2003 US-Iraq war, how were adolescents in Baghdad faring? Conflict-related events typically lower psychological well-being; in contrast, investment in and protection of threatened identities should lead to self-esteem striving and, presumably, better well-being. How threatened do Iraqi adolescents feel? Is their self-esteem related to their sense of threat? Do age, religion, ethnicity, and gender alter the link between perceived threat and self-esteem? We use data from 1000 randomly selected adolescents living in Baghdad during July 2004. Iraqi adolescents reported high levels of threat; those feeling more threatened reported higher levels of self-esteem. Social background correlates with both self-esteem and perceived threat, but controlling for social background does not eliminate the relationship between self-esteem and perceived threat. We interpret our results in light of theory and research concerning social identity, mortality threats, and war trauma.

Risk stratification personalised model for prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Frolov, Alexander Vladimirovich; Vaikhanskaya, Tatjana Gennadjevna; Melnikova, Olga Petrovna; Vorobiev, Anatoly Pavlovich; Guel, Ludmila Michajlovna

2017-01-01

The development of prognostic factors of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to maintain its priority and relevance in cardiology. The development of a method of personalised prognosis based on multifactorial analysis of the risk factors associated with life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances is considered a key research and clinical task. To design a prognostic and mathematical model to define personalised risk for life-threatening VTA in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The study included 240 patients with CHF (mean-age of 50.5 ± 12.1 years; left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 ± 10.9%; follow-up period 36.8 ± 5.7 months). The participants received basic therapy for heart failure. The elec-trocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial electrical instability were assessed including microvolt T-wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, heart rate deceleration, and QT dispersion. Additionally, echocardiography and Holter monitoring (HM) were performed. The cardiovascular events were considered as primary endpoints, including SCD, paroxysmal ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) based on HM-ECG data, and data obtained from implantable device interrogation (CRT-D, ICD) as well as appropriated shocks. During the follow-up period, 66 (27.5%) subjects with CHF showed adverse arrhythmic events, including nine SCD events and 57 VTAs. Data from a stepwise discriminant analysis of cumulative ECG-markers of myocardial electrical instability were used to make a mathematical model of preliminary VTA risk stratification. Uni- and multivariate Cox logistic regression analysis were performed to define an individualised risk stratification model of SCD/VTA. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a high prognostic significance of discriminant function with a classification sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 99.1% (F = 31.2; c2 = 143.2; p < 0.0001). The method of personalised risk stratification using Cox logistic regression allows correct classification of more than 93.9% of CHF cases. A robust body of evidence concerning logistic regression prognostic significance to define VTA risk allows inclusion of this method into the algorithm of subsequent control and selection of the optimal treatment modality to treat patients with CHF.

A Simulation of Alternatives for Wholesale Inventory Replenishment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

algorithmic details. The last method is a mixed-integer, linear optimization model. Comparative Inventory Simulation, a discrete event simulation model, is...simulation; event graphs; reorder point; fill-rate; backorder; discrete event simulation; wholesale inventory optimization model 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...model. Comparative Inventory Simulation, a discrete event simulation model, is designed to find fill rates achieved for each National Item

Synchronization Of Parallel Discrete Event Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S.

1992-01-01

Adaptive, parallel, discrete-event-simulation-synchronization algorithm, Breathing Time Buckets, developed in Synchronous Parallel Environment for Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation (SPEEDES) operating system. Algorithm allows parallel simulations to process events optimistically in fluctuating time cycles that naturally adapt while simulation in progress. Combines best of optimistic and conservative synchronization strategies while avoiding major disadvantages. Algorithm processes events optimistically in time cycles adapting while simulation in progress. Well suited for modeling communication networks, for large-scale war games, for simulated flights of aircraft, for simulations of computer equipment, for mathematical modeling, for interactive engineering simulations, and for depictions of flows of information.

Politeness and the communication of uncertainty.

PubMed

Holtgraves, Thomas; Perdew, Audrey

2016-09-01

Ambiguity in language derives, in part, from the multiple motivations that underlie the choice to use any particular expression. The use of some lexical items, such as probability expressions and scalar terms, can be motivated by a desire to communicate uncertainty as well as a desire to be polite (i.e., manage face). Research has demonstrated that the interpretation of these items can be influenced by the existence of a potential politeness motive. In general, communications about negative events, relative to positive events, result in higher likelihood estimates whenever politeness can be discerned as a potential motive. With few exceptions, however, this research has focused only on the hearer. In the present research we focused on the dyad and examined whether speakers vary their messages as a function of politeness, and the effect that this has on subsequent judgments made by a recipient. In two experiments we presented participants with situations that varied in terms of face-threat and asked them how they would communicate potentially threatening information. Both experiments included a second set of participants who read these utterances and provided judgments as to the degree of uncertainty conveyed by the utterance. In both experiments, messages in the face-threatening condition conveyed greater uncertainty than messages in the non-face-threatening condition, and the probability estimates made by the second set of participants varied as a function of conveyed uncertainty. This research demonstrates that when examining speakers and hearers together, severe events may be judged less likely (rather than more likely), because speakers tend to hedge the certainty with which they communicate the information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How the Sun Knocks Out My Cell Phone from 150 Million Kilometers Away

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, Ray

2014-01-01

Large solar particle events (SPE) threaten many elements of critical infrastructure. A 2013 study by Lloyds of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research recently found that if a worst-case solar event like the 1859 Carrington Event struck our planet now, it could result on $0.6-$2.36 trillion in damages to the economy. In March 2014, researchers Y. D. Liu et al. revealed that just such an event had narrowly missed Earth in July 2012. The event was observed by the STEREO A spacecraft. In this presentation, we examine how the sun can pack such a punch from 150 million km away, the threats such solar particle events pose, their mechanisms and the efforts NASA and other space agencies are carrying out to understand and mitigate such risks.

Simulated life-threatening emergency during robot-assisted surgery.

PubMed

Huser, Anna-Sophia; Müller, Dirk; Brunkhorst, Violeta; Kannisto, Päivi; Musch, Michael; Kröpfl, Darko; Groeben, Harald

2014-06-01

With the increasing use of robot-assisted techniques for urologic and gynecologic surgery in patients with severe comorbidities, the risk of a critical incidence during surgery increases. Due to limited access to the patient the start of effective measures to treat a life-threatening emergency could be delayed. Therefore, we tested the management of an acute emergency in an operating room setting with a full-size simulator in six complete teams. A full-size simulator (ISTAN, Meti, CA), modified to hold five trocars, was placed in a regular operating room and connected to a robotic system. Six teams (each with three nurses, one anesthesiologist, two urologists or gynecologists) were introduced to the scenario. Subsequently, myocardial fibrillation occurred. Time to first chest compression, removal of the robot, first defibrillation, and stabilization of circulation were obtained. After 7 weeks the simulation was repeated. The time to the start of chest compressions, removal of the robotic system, and first defibrillation were significantly improved at the second simulation. Time for restoration of stable circulation was improved from 417 ± 125 seconds to 224 ± 37 seconds (P=0.0054). Unexpected delays occurred during the first simulation because trocars had been removed from the patient but not from the robot, thus preventing the robot to be moved. Following proper training, resuscitation can be started within seconds. A repetition of the simulation significantly improved time for all steps of resuscitation. An emergency simulation of a multidisciplinary team in a real operating room setting can be strongly recommended.

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

PubMed

Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

2014-01-01

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.

Evolutionary dynamics of a rapidly receding southern range boundary in the threatened California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Barr, Kelly R.; Backlin, Adam R.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Fisher, Robert N.

2013-01-01

Populations forming the edge of a species range are often imperiled by isolation and low genetic diversity, with proximity to human population centers being a major determinant of edge stability in modern landscapes. Since the 1960s, the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii) has undergone extensive declines in heavily urbanized southern California, where the range edge has rapidly contracted northward while shifting its cardinal orientation to an east-west trending axis. We studied the genetic structure and diversity of these frontline populations, tested for signatures of contemporary disturbance, specifically fire, and attempted to disentangle these signals from demographic events extending deeper into the past. Consistent with the genetic expectations of the ‘abundant-center’ model, we found that diversity, admixture, and opportunity for random mating increases in populations sampled successively further away from the range boundary. Demographic simulations indicate that bottlenecks in peripheral isolates are associated with processes extending tens to a few hundred generations in the past, despite the demographic collapse of some due to recent fire-flood events. While the effects of recent disturbance have left little genetic imprint on these populations, they likely contribute to an extinction debt that will lead to continued range contraction unless management intervenes to stall or reverse the process.

Modeling the Impacts of Geomagnetic Disturbances on the New York State Power Transmission System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouedraogo, D.; Castillo, O. L.; Mohamed, A.; Damas, M. C.; Ngwira, C. M.

2015-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on electricity in order to meet its essential basic needs. However, to meet the rising demands for this energy, all power companies require smooth and efficient delivery of services to the consumers. The US power grid is a complex electrical apparatus that has well known sensitivities to space weather disturbances. Events produced by space weather includes solar storms or geomagnetic disturbances [GMD]. The propagation of such events in the direction of Earth perturbs the electric currents in the magnetosphere and the ionosphere, causing a unique effect known as a Geomagnetically Induced Current [GIC]. GICs are known to saturate and overheat transformers in the power grid, threatening the safe operation of the power system. A GMD induces a geoelectric field in high-voltage and extra high-voltage transmission circuits. This geoelectric field represents electromotive force, and causes GICs to circulate through transmission circuits and transformers. Power models are being developed using MATLAB/Simulink® software to simulate the propagation of GIC flows in a power system, while using New York State (NYS) power transmission network as an example. We will present results of the models used to assess the impacts of possible GMD strikes on the various parts of the power network.

Spirituality in the context of life-threatening illness and life-transforming change.

PubMed

Young, William C; Nadarajah, Sheeba R; Skeath, Perry R; Berger, Ann M

2015-06-01

Individuals with life-threatening illness often engage in some form of spirituality to meet increased needs for meaning and purpose. This study aimed to identify the role of spirituality in persons who had reported positive, life-transforming change in relation to life-threatening cancer or cardiac events, and to connect these roles to palliative and supportive care. A purposive sample of 10 cardiac survivors and 9 cancer survivors was recruited. Once the participants had given informed consent and passed screening in relation to life-transforming change and distress, they engaged in a semistructured one-hour qualitative interview on the theme of how their life-transforming change occurred in the context of their life-threatening illness. In the present article, our phenomenological analysis focuses on participants' references to purpose and meaning in their lives, with particular attention to the role and context of participants' spirituality. Participants mentioned spirituality, meaning, and purpose in many contexts, including connecting with family and friends, nature, art, music, and sometimes creating a relationship with God. Participants often accessed spirituality by enhancing connections in their own lives: with a higher power, people, their work, or themselves. These enhanced connections gave participants greater meaning and purpose in their lives, and substantially helped participants to adjust to their life-threatening illnesses. Understanding the roles and contexts of spirituality among patients with a life-threatening illness allows us to develop better palliative and supportive care plans. Spiritually oriented supportive care may include support groups, yoga, meditation, nature, music, prayer, or referral to spiritual or religious counselors. A quantitative scale is needed to help healthcare clinicians assess the spiritual and coping needs of individuals with life-threatening illness.

Metropolitan Water Availability Forecasting Methods and Applications in South Florida

EPA Science Inventory

The availability of adequate fresh water is fundamental to the sustainable management of water infrastructures that support both urban needs and agricultural uses in human society. Recent drought events in the U.S. have threatened drinking water supplies for communities in Maryl...

Combining a dispersal model with network theory to assess habitat connectivity.

PubMed

Lookingbill, Todd R; Gardner, Robert H; Ferrari, Joseph R; Keller, Cherry E

2010-03-01

Assessing the potential for threatened species to persist and spread within fragmented landscapes requires the identification of core areas that can sustain resident populations and dispersal corridors that can link these core areas with isolated patches of remnant habitat. We developed a set of GIS tools, simulation methods, and network analysis procedures to assess potential landscape connectivity for the Delmarva fox squirrel (DFS; Sciurus niger cinereus), an endangered species inhabiting forested areas on the Delmarva Peninsula, USA. Information on the DFS's life history and dispersal characteristics, together with data on the composition and configuration of land cover on the peninsula, were used as input data for an individual-based model to simulate dispersal patterns of millions of squirrels. Simulation results were then assessed using methods from graph theory, which quantifies habitat attributes associated with local and global connectivity. Several bottlenecks to dispersal were identified that were not apparent from simple distance-based metrics, highlighting specific locations for landscape conservation, restoration, and/or squirrel translocations. Our approach links simulation models, network analysis, and available field data in an efficient and general manner, making these methods useful and appropriate for assessing the movement dynamics of threatened species within landscapes being altered by human and natural disturbances.

Event-driven simulation in SELMON: An overview of EDSE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouquette, Nicolas F.; Chien, Steve A.; Charest, Leonard, Jr.

1992-01-01

EDSE (event-driven simulation engine), a model-based event-driven simulator implemented for SELMON, a tool for sensor selection and anomaly detection in real-time monitoring is described. The simulator is used in conjunction with a causal model to predict future behavior of the model from observed data. The behavior of the causal model is interpreted as equivalent to the behavior of the physical system being modeled. An overview of the functionality of the simulator and the model-based event-driven simulation paradigm on which it is based is provided. Included are high-level descriptions of the following key properties: event consumption and event creation, iterative simulation, synchronization and filtering of monitoring data from the physical system. Finally, how EDSE stands with respect to the relevant open issues of discrete-event and model-based simulation is discussed.

Synchronous parallel system for emulation and discrete event simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S. (Inventor)

1992-01-01

A synchronous parallel system for emulation and discrete event simulation having parallel nodes responds to received messages at each node by generating event objects having individual time stamps, stores only the changes to state variables of the simulation object attributable to the event object, and produces corresponding messages. The system refrains from transmitting the messages and changing the state variables while it determines whether the changes are superseded, and then stores the unchanged state variables in the event object for later restoral to the simulation object if called for. This determination preferably includes sensing the time stamp of each new event object and determining which new event object has the earliest time stamp as the local event horizon, determining the earliest local event horizon of the nodes as the global event horizon, and ignoring the events whose time stamps are less than the global event horizon. Host processing between the system and external terminals enables such a terminal to query, monitor, command or participate with a simulation object during the simulation process.

Synchronous Parallel System for Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A synchronous parallel system for emulation and discrete event simulation having parallel nodes responds to received messages at each node by generating event objects having individual time stamps, stores only the changes to the state variables of the simulation object attributable to the event object and produces corresponding messages. The system refrains from transmitting the messages and changing the state variables while it determines whether the changes are superseded, and then stores the unchanged state variables in the event object for later restoral to the simulation object if called for. This determination preferably includes sensing the time stamp of each new event object and determining which new event object has the earliest time stamp as the local event horizon, determining the earliest local event horizon of the nodes as the global event horizon, and ignoring events whose time stamps are less than the global event horizon. Host processing between the system and external terminals enables such a terminal to query, monitor, command or participate with a simulation object during the simulation process.

Modeling neural circuits in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Psiha, Maria; Vlamos, Panayiotis

2015-01-01

Parkinson's disease (PD) is caused by abnormal neural activity of the basal ganglia which are connected to the cerebral cortex in the brain surface through complex neural circuits. For a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms of PD, it is important to identify the underlying PD neural circuits, and to pinpoint the precise nature of the crucial aberrations in these circuits. In this paper, the general architecture of a hybrid Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network for modeling the neural circuits in PD is presented. The main idea of the proposed approach is to divide the parkinsonian neural circuitry system into three discrete subsystems: the external stimuli subsystem, the life-threatening events subsystem, and the basal ganglia subsystem. The proposed model, which includes the key roles of brain neural circuit in PD, is based on both feed-back and feed-forward neural networks. Specifically, a three-layer MLP neural network with feedback in the second layer was designed. The feedback in the second layer of this model simulates the dopamine modulatory effect of compacta on striatum.

Modelling threats to water quality from fire suppression chemicals and post-fire erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, Kevin; Ziemniak, Chris; Elliot, William; Samuels, William

2014-05-01

Misapplication of fire retardant chemicals into streams and rivers may threaten aquatic life. The possible threat depends on the contaminant concentration that, in part, is controlled by dispersion within flowing water. In the event of a misapplication, methods are needed to rapidly estimate the chemical mass entering the waterway and the dispersion and transport within the system. Here we demonstrate a new tool that calculates the chemical mass based on aircraft delivery system, fire chemical type, and stream and intersect geometry. The estimated mass is intended to be transferred into a GIS module that uses real-time stream data to map and simulate the dispersion and transport downstream. This system currently accounts only for aqueous transport. We envision that the GIS module can be modified to incorporate sediment transport, specifically to model movement of sediments from post-fire erosion. This modification could support assessment of threats of post-fire erosion to water quality and water supply systems.

Effects of a flooding event on a threatened black bear population in Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell-Goode, Kaitlin C.; Lowe, Carrie L.; Clark, Joseph D.

2014-01-01

The Louisiana black bear, Ursus americanus luteolus, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of habitat loss and human-related mortality. Information on population-level responses of large mammals to flooding events is scarce, and we had a unique opportunity to evaluate the viability of the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB) black bear population before and after a significant flooding event. We began collecting black bear hair samples in 2007 for a DNA mark-recapture study to estimate abundance (N) and apparent survival (φ). In 2011, the Morganza Spillway was opened to divert floodwaters from the Mississippi River through the UARB, inundating > 50% of our study area, potentially impacting recovery of this important bear population. To evaluate the effects of this flooding event on bear population dynamics, we used a robust design multistate model to estimate changes in transition rates from the flooded area to non-flooded area (ψF→NF) before (2007–2010), during (2010–2011) and after (2011–2012) the flood. Average N across all years of study was 63.2 (SE = 5.2), excluding the year of the flooding event. Estimates of ψF→NF increased from 0.014 (SE = 0.010; meaning that 1.4% of the bears moved from the flooded area to non-flooded areas) before flooding to 0.113 (SE = 0.045) during the flood year, and then decreased to 0.028 (SE= 0.035) after the flood. Although we demonstrated a flood effect on transition rates as hypothesized, the effect was small (88.7% of the bears remained in the flooded area during flooding) and φ was unchanged, suggesting that the 2011 flooding event had minimal impact on survival and site fidelity.

Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise Gopherus agassizii: implications for disease modelling and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Mean field models may misrepresent natural transmission patterns in this and other populations depending on the distribution of high-risk contact and shedding events. Rapid outbreaks in generally solitary species may result from changes to their naturally low-risk contact patterns or due to increases in the frequency of severe infections or super-shedding events – population characteristics that should be further investigated to develop effective management strategies.

Sun-Earth Connections: How the Sun Knocks Out My Cell Phone from 150 Million Kilometers Away

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, Raymond L.

2014-01-01

Large solar particle events (SPE) threaten many elements of critical infrastructure. A 2013 study by Lloyds of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research recently found that if a worst-case solar event like the 1859 Carrington Event struck our planet now, it could result on $0.6-$2.36 trillion in damages to the economy. In March 2014, researchers Y. D. Liu et al. revealed that just such an event had narrowly missed Earth in July 2012. The event was observed by the STEREO A spacecraft. In this presentation, we examine how the sun can pack such a punch from 150 million km away, the threats such solar particle events pose, their mechanisms and the efforts NASA and other space agencies are carrying out to understand and mitigate such risks.

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buddemeier, R.W.; Lane, D.R.; Martinich, J.A.

2011-01-01

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo ("COral Mortality and Bleaching Output")] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1-1. 5??C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Alexandrium minutum growth controlled by phosphorus . An applied model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapelle, A.; Labry, C.; Sourisseau, M.; Lebreton, C.; Youenou, A.; Crassous, M. P.

2010-11-01

Toxic algae are a worldwide problem threatening aquaculture, public health and tourism. Alexandrium, a toxic dinoflagellate proliferates in Northwest France estuaries (i.e. the Penzé estuary) causing Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning events. Vegetative growth, and in particular the role of nutrient uptake and growth rate, are crucial parameters to understand toxic blooms. With the goal of modelling in situ Alexandrium blooms related to environmental parameters, we first try to calibrate a zero-dimensional box model of Alexandrium growth. This work focuses on phosphorus nutrition. Our objective is to calibrate Alexandrium minutum as well as Heterocapsa triquetra (a non-toxic dinoflagellate) growth under different rates of phosphorus supply, other factors being optimal and constant. Laboratory experiments are used to calibrate two growth models and three uptake models for each species. Models are then used to simulate monospecific batch and semi-continuous experiments as well as competition between the two algae (mixed cultures). Results show that the Droop growth model together with linear uptake versus quota can represent most of our observations, although a power law uptake function can more accurately simulate our phosphorus uptake data. We note that such models have limitations in non steady-state situations and cell quotas can depend on a variety of factors, so care must be taken in extrapolating these results beyond the specific conditions studied.

Brain activity and prosocial behavior in a simulated life-threatening situation.

PubMed

Zanon, Marco; Novembre, Giovanni; Zangrando, Nicola; Chittaro, Luca; Silani, Giorgia

2014-09-01

To study the neuronal basis of altruistic behavior, we investigated functional connectivity within brain networks of participants who exhibited either a self-benefit behavior or an altruistic one in a life-threatening situation simulated in a virtual environment. In particular, participants were asked to evacuate a virtual building on fire and, without being previously informed, they were faced with a decision on whether to stop and help a trapped virtual human, at the possible cost of losing their own life in the virtual experience. Group independent component analysis (gICA) applied on blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) functional images revealed significant differences between the group of participants who showed selfish behavior and those who acted prosocially. Specifically, an increased functional connectivity in the salience network, comprising the anterior insula (AI) and the anterior mid cingulate cortex (aMCC), was observed in the selfish group compared to the prosocial one. Conversely, higher ICA weights in the medial prefrontal cortex and temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), were observed in the prosocial group. The findings show that an increased functional connectivity of the salience network, which suggests an enhanced sensitivity to the threatening situation and potential danger for the individual, resulted in more selfish choices, while the engagement of the medial prefrontal and temporo-parietal cortices subserved prosocial behavior, possibly due to their role in perspective-taking. The study provides the first online neurophysiological measurement of prosocial decision-making during threatening situations, opening new avenues to the investigation of neuronal substrates of complex social behaviors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inferring the nature of anthropogenic threats from long-term abundance records.

PubMed

Shoemaker, Kevin T; Akçakaya, H Resit

2015-02-01

Diagnosing the processes that threaten species persistence is critical for recovery planning and risk forecasting. Dominant threats are typically inferred by experts on the basis of a patchwork of informal methods. Transparent, quantitative diagnostic tools would contribute much-needed consistency, objectivity, and rigor to the process of diagnosing anthropogenic threats. Long-term census records, available for an increasingly large and diverse set of taxa, may exhibit characteristic signatures of specific threatening processes and thereby provide information for threat diagnosis. We developed a flexible Bayesian framework for diagnosing threats on the basis of long-term census records and diverse ancillary sources of information. We tested this framework with simulated data from artificial populations subjected to varying degrees of exploitation and habitat loss and several real-world abundance time series for which threatening processes are relatively well understood: bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (exploitation) and Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) and Eurasian Skylark (Alauda arvensis) (habitat loss). Our method correctly identified the process driving population decline for over 90% of time series simulated under moderate to severe threat scenarios. Successful identification of threats approached 100% for severe exploitation and habitat loss scenarios. Our method identified threats less successfully when threatening processes were weak and when populations were simultaneously affected by multiple threats. Our method selected the presumed true threat model for all real-world case studies, although results were somewhat ambiguous in the case of the Eurasian Skylark. In the latter case, incorporation of an ancillary source of information (records of land-use change) increased the weight assigned to the presumed true model from 70% to 92%, illustrating the value of the proposed framework in bringing diverse sources of information into a common rigorous framework. Ultimately, our framework may greatly assist conservation organizations in documenting threatening processes and planning species recovery. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Estimation of the Long-term Cardiovascular Events Using UKPDS Risk Engine in Metabolic Syndrome Patients.

PubMed

Shivakumar, V; Kandhare, A D; Rajmane, A R; Adil, M; Ghosh, P; Badgujar, L B; Saraf, M N; Bodhankar, S L

2014-03-01

Long-term cardiovascular complications in metabolic syndrome are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in India and forecasted estimates in this domain of research are scarcely reported in the literature. The aim of present investigation is to estimate the cardiovascular events associated with a representative Indian population of patients suffering from metabolic syndrome using United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Patient level data was collated from 567 patients suffering from metabolic syndrome through structured interviews and physician records regarding the input variables, which were entered into the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. The patients of metabolic syndrome were selected according to guidelines of National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III, modified National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation criteria. A projection for 10 simulated years was run on the engine and output was determined. The data for each patient was processed using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine to calculate an estimate of the forecasted value for the cardiovascular complications after a period of 10 years. The absolute risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke for 10 years was 3.79 (1.5-3.2), 9.6 (6.8-10.7), 7.91 (6.5-9.9) and 3.57 (2.3-4.5), respectively. The relative risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke was 17.8 (12.98-19.99), 7 (6.7-7.2), 5.9 (4.0-6.6) and 4.7 (3.2-5.7), respectively. Simulated projections of metabolic syndrome patients predict serious life-threatening cardiovascular consequences in the representative cohort of patients in western India.

Prevention of Self-Handicapping--The Protective Function of Mastery Goals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwinger, Malte; Stiensmeier-Pelster, Joachim

2011-01-01

Drawing on modern diathesis-stress theories which suggest a multiplicative approach to determine one's personal vulnerability status, we posit that the degree of an individual's vulnerability for using self-handicapping strategies in case of self-threatening events depends on the interaction between different vulnerability and protective factors.…

A Scheme for Categorizing Traumatic Military Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Nathan R.; Mills, Mary Alice; Arditte, Kimberly; Mendoza, Crystal; Borah, Adam M.; Resick, Patricia A.; Litz, Brett T.

2012-01-01

A common assumption among clinicians and researchers is that war trauma primarily involves fear-based reactions to life-threatening situations. However, the authors believe that there are multiple types of trauma in the military context, each with unique perievent and postevent response patterns. To test this hypothesis, they reviewed structured…

Early Childhood Trauma

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2010

2010-01-01

Early childhood trauma generally refers to the traumatic experiences that occur to children aged 0-6. Because infants' and young children's reactions may be different from older children's, and because they may not be able to verbalize their reactions to threatening or dangerous events, many people assume that young age protects children from the…

Breaking wire detection and strain distribution of seven-wire steel cables with acoustic emission and optical fiber sensors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

Cable-stayed bridges have been increasingly used as river-crossing links in highway and railway transportation networks. In the event : of an abnormal situation, they can not only impact the local and national economy but also threaten the safety of ...

Helping Students Cope with Test Anxiety. ERIC Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Henry L.; Coy, Doris R.

One of the most threatening events that causes anxiety in students today is testing. When students develop an extreme fear of performing poorly on an examination, they experience test anxiety. Test anxiety is a major factor contributing to a variety of negative outcomes including psychological distress, academic underachievement, academic failure,…

78 FR 49149 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Determination of Endangered Status for Sphaeralcea...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-13

... to further declines through stochastic wildfire events, spread of the nonnative grasses, and climate... descriptions predict the annual production (pounds per acre) of plant groups (grass/grass-like, forbs, shrub... than fewer numbers of shrubs and perennial grasses. Therefore, although an ecological site description...

Identification of Risk Factors for Exertional Heat Illness: A Brief Commentary on Genetic Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

RYR1) gene and other genes related to disorders of skeletal muscle. Data Synthesis : EHI is a complex disorder wherein physiological, environmental, and...a life-threatening, hypermetabolic syndrome, known as a fulminant MH episode; similar (rare) events can be induced by high environmental temperatures

Impact of EMP on Air Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

pulse while in flight. With a requirement to be compliant with this standard for all critical weapon systems, the C -17 remains untested. The significant...EMP event that would threaten an inflight C -17, there was not enough evidence to force a change to the current EMP testing and hardening schedule.

Viewing Volcanoes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wighting, Mervyn J.

2005-01-01

When Mount St. Helens threatened to erupt again in 2004, it grabbed headlines and captured the imagination of the country. Science classrooms nationwide used the event as an opportunity to make real-world connections to Earth science concepts introduced in the classroom. Thanks to modern technology, teachers no longer have to wait for the next…

Water table response to harvesting and simulated emerald ash borer mortality in black ash wetlands in Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Robert A. Slesak; Christian F. Lenhart; Kenneth N. Brooks; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik

2014-01-01

Black ash wetlands are seriously threatened because of the invasive emerald ash borer (EAB). Wetland hydrology is likely to be modified following ash mortality, but the magnitude of hydrological impact following loss via EAB and alternative mitigation harvests is not clear. Our objective was to assess the water table response to simulated EAB and harvesting to...

Megacity pumping and preferential flow threaten groundwater quality

PubMed Central

Khan, Mahfuzur R.; Koneshloo, Mohammad; Knappett, Peter S. K.; Ahmed, Kazi M.; Bostick, Benjamin C.; Mailloux, Brian J.; Mozumder, Rajib H.; Zahid, Anwar; Harvey, Charles F.; van Geen, Alexander; Michael, Holly A.

2016-01-01

Many of the world's megacities depend on groundwater from geologically complex aquifers that are over-exploited and threatened by contamination. Here, using the example of Dhaka, Bangladesh, we illustrate how interactions between aquifer heterogeneity and groundwater exploitation jeopardize groundwater resources regionally. Groundwater pumping in Dhaka has caused large-scale drawdown that extends into outlying areas where arsenic-contaminated shallow groundwater is pervasive and has potential to migrate downward. We evaluate the vulnerability of deep, low-arsenic groundwater with groundwater models that incorporate geostatistical simulations of aquifer heterogeneity. Simulations show that preferential flow through stratigraphy typical of fluvio-deltaic aquifers could contaminate deep (>150 m) groundwater within a decade, nearly a century faster than predicted through homogeneous models calibrated to the same data. The most critical fast flowpaths cannot be predicted by simplified models or identified by standard measurements. Such complex vulnerability beyond city limits could become a limiting factor for megacity groundwater supplies in aquifers worldwide. PMID:27673729

Success and failure of the defibrillation shock: insights from a simulation study.

PubMed

Skouibine, K; Trayanova, N; Moore, P

2000-07-01

This simulation study presents a further inquiry into the mechanisms by which a strong electric shock fails to halt life-threatening cardiac arrhythmias. The research uses a model of the defibrillation process that represents a sheet of myocardium as a bidomain. The tissue consists of nonuniformly curved fibers in which spiral wave reentry is initiated. Monophasic defibrillation shocks are delivered via two line electrodes that occupy opposite tissue boundaries. In some simulation experiments, the polarity of the shock is reversed. Electrical activity in the sheet is compared for failed and successful shocks under controlled conditions. The maps of transmembrane potential and activation times calculated during and after the shock demonstrate that weak shocks fail to terminate the reentrant activity via two major mechanisms. As compared with strong shocks, weak shocks result in (1) smaller extension of refractoriness in the areas depolarized by the shock, and (2) slower or incomplete activation of the excitable gap created by deexcitation of the negatively polarized areas. In its turn, mechanism 2 is associated with one or more of the following events: (a) lack of some break excitations, (b) latency in the occurrence of the break excitations, and (c) slower propagation through deexcited areas. Reversal of shock polarity results in a change of the extent of the regions of deexcitation, and thus, in a change in defibrillation threshold. The results of this study indicate the paramount importance of shock-induced deexcitation in both defibrillation and postshock arrhythmogenesis.

Recurrent job loss and mental health among women.

PubMed

Nuttman-Shwartz, Orit; Gadot, Limor; Kacen, Lea

2009-06-01

Growing instability in the labor market has led to an increase in recurrent job loss, which primarily affects women (Tamir, 2007). Numerous studies have shown that job loss is a stressful, traumatic experience that has consequences for the individuals who are laid off. However, few studies have examined how recurrent job loss affects individuals. The present study of 134 Israeli women aged 30-45 years aimed to examine how recurrent job loss affected individual women's perceptions of the event and the extent to which it generated emotional stress and psychiatric symptoms. Most of the women perceived job loss as a challenging event and their assessments of job loss had a stronger impact on the development of mental health consequences than did the number of times they had actually been laid off. The more the women perceived job loss as threatening, the more they reported emotional stress and psychiatric symptoms. Conversely, the more they perceived job loss as challenging, the lower their levels of emotional stress. Never-married women were laid-off more, and they reported more mental health symptoms following recurrent job loss than did married women. The findings suggest that perception of job loss as a threatening event might cause mental health problems as results of lay-off.

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder: Evidence-Based Research for the Third Millennium

PubMed Central

2005-01-01

The stress that results from traumatic events precipitates a spectrum of psycho-emotional and physiopathological outcomes. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric disorder that results from the experience or witnessing of traumatic or life-threatening events. PTSD has profound psychobiological correlates, which can impair the person's daily life and be life threatening. In light of current events (e.g. extended combat, terrorism, exposure to certain environmental toxins), a sharp rise in patients with PTSD diagnosis is expected in the next decade. PTSD is a serious public health concern, which compels the search for novel paradigms and theoretical models to deepen the understanding of the condition and to develop new and improved modes of treatment intervention. We review the current knowledge of PTSD and introduce the role of allostasis as a new perspective in fundamental PTSD research. We discuss the domain of evidence-based research in medicine, particularly in the context of complementary medical intervention for patients with PTSD. We present arguments in support of the notion that the future of clinical and translational research in PTSD lies in the systematic evaluation of the research evidence in treatment intervention in order to insure the most effective and efficacious treatment for the benefit of the patient. PMID:16322808

Difficult airway response team: a novel quality improvement program for managing hospital-wide airway emergencies.

PubMed

Mark, Lynette J; Herzer, Kurt R; Cover, Renee; Pandian, Vinciya; Bhatti, Nasir I; Berkow, Lauren C; Haut, Elliott R; Hillel, Alexander T; Miller, Christina R; Feller-Kopman, David J; Schiavi, Adam J; Xie, Yanjun J; Lim, Christine; Holzmueller, Christine; Ahmad, Mueen; Thomas, Pradeep; Flint, Paul W; Mirski, Marek A

2015-07-01

Difficult airway cases can quickly become emergencies, increasing the risk of life-threatening complications or death. Emergency airway management outside the operating room is particularly challenging. We developed a quality improvement program-the Difficult Airway Response Team (DART)-to improve emergency airway management outside the operating room. DART was implemented by a team of anesthesiologists, otolaryngologists, trauma surgeons, emergency medicine physicians, and risk managers in 2005 at The Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland. The DART program had 3 core components: operations, safety, and education. The operations component focused on developing a multidisciplinary difficult airway response team, standardizing the emergency response process, and deploying difficult airway equipment carts throughout the hospital. The safety component focused on real-time monitoring of DART activations and learning from past DART events to continuously improve system-level performance. This objective entailed monitoring the paging system, reporting difficult airway events and DART activations to a Web-based registry, and using in situ simulations to identify and mitigate defects in the emergency airway management process. The educational component included development of a multispecialty difficult airway curriculum encompassing case-based lectures, simulation, and team building/communication to ensure consistency of care. Educational materials were also developed for non-DART staff and patients to inform them about the needs of patients with difficult airways and ensure continuity of care with other providers after discharge. Between July 2008 and June 2013, DART managed 360 adult difficult airway events comprising 8% of all code activations. Predisposing patient factors included body mass index >40, history of head and neck tumor, prior difficult intubation, cervical spine injury, airway edema, airway bleeding, and previous or current tracheostomy. Twenty-three patients (6%) required emergent surgical airways. Sixty-two patients (17%) were stabilized and transported to the operating room for definitive airway management. There were no airway management-related deaths, sentinel events, or malpractice claims in adult patients managed by DART. Five in situ simulations conducted in the first program year improved DART's teamwork, communication, and response times and increased the functionality of the difficult airway carts. Over the 5-year period, we conducted 18 airway courses, through which >200 providers were trained. DART is a comprehensive program for improving difficult airway management. Future studies will examine the comparative effectiveness of the DART program and evaluate how DART has impacted patient outcomes, operational efficiency, and costs of care.

Difficult Airway Response Team: A Novel Quality Improvement Program for Managing Hospital-Wide Airway Emergencies

PubMed Central

Mark, Lynette J.; Herzer, Kurt R.; Cover, Renee; Pandian, Vinciya; Bhatti, Nasir I.; Berkow, Lauren C.; Haut, Elliott R.; Hillel, Alexander T.; Miller, Christina R.; Feller-Kopman, David J.; Schiavi, Adam J.; Xie, Yanjun J.; Lim, Christine; Holzmueller, Christine; Ahmad, Mueen; Thomas, Pradeep; Flint, Paul W.; Mirski, Marek A.

2015-01-01

Background Difficult airway cases can quickly become emergencies, increasing the risk of life-threatening complications or death. Emergency airway management outside the operating room is particularly challenging. Methods We developed a quality improvement program—the Difficult Airway Response Team (DART)—to improve emergency airway management outside the operating room. DART was implemented by a team of anesthesiologists, otolaryngologists, trauma surgeons, emergency medicine physicians, and risk managers in 2005 at The Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland. The DART program had three core components: operations, safety, and education. The operations component focused on developing a multidisciplinary difficult airway response team, standardizing the emergency response process, and deploying difficult airway equipment carts throughout the hospital. The safety component focused on real-time monitoring of DART activations and learning from past DART events to continuously improve system-level performance. This objective entailed monitoring the paging system, reporting difficult airway events and DART activations to a web-based registry, and using in situ simulations to identify and mitigate defects in the emergency airway management process. The educational component included development of a multispecialty difficult airway curriculum encompassing case-based lectures, simulation, and team building/communication to ensure consistency of care. Educational materials were also developed for non-DART staff and patients to inform them about the needs of patients with difficult airways and ensure continuity of care with other providers after discharge. Results Between July 2008 and June 2013, DART managed 360 adult difficult airway events comprising 8% of all code activations. Predisposing patient factors included body mass index > 40, history of head and neck tumor, prior difficult intubation, cervical spine injury, airway edema, airway bleeding, and previous or current tracheostomy. Twenty-three patients (6%) required emergent surgical airways. Sixty-two patients (17%) were stabilized and transported to the operating room for definitive airway management. There were no airway management-related deaths, sentinel events, or malpractice claims in adult patients managed by DART. Five in situ simulations conducted in the first program year improved DART's teamwork, communication, and response times and increased the functionality of the difficult airway carts. Over the 5-year period, we conducted 18 airway courses, through which more than 200 providers were trained. Conclusions DART is a comprehensive program for improving difficult airway management. Future studies will examine the comparative effectiveness of the DART program and evaluate how DART has impacted patient outcomes, operational efficiency, and costs of care. PMID:26086513

Imaging Findings of Liposuction with an Emphasis on Postsurgical Complications.

PubMed

You, Je Sung; Chung, Yong Eun; Baek, Song-Ee; Chung, Sung Phil; Kim, Myeong-Jin

2015-01-01

Liposuction is one of the most frequently performed cosmetic surgeries worldwide for reshaping the body contour. Although liposuction is minimally invasive and relatively safe, it is a surgical procedure, and it carries the risk of major and minor complications. These complications vary from postoperative nausea to life-threatening events. Common complications include infection, abdominal wall injury, bowel herniation, bleeding, haematoma, seroma, and lymphoedema. Life-threatening complications such as necrotizing fasciitis, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism have also been reported. In this paper, we provide a brief introduction to liposuction with the related anatomy and present computed tomography and ultrasonography findings of a wide spectrum of postoperative complications associated with liposuction.

Imaging Findings of Liposuction with an Emphasis on Postsurgical Complications

PubMed Central

You, Je Sung; Baek, Song-Ee; Chung, Sung Phil; Kim, Myeong-Jin

2015-01-01

Liposuction is one of the most frequently performed cosmetic surgeries worldwide for reshaping the body contour. Although liposuction is minimally invasive and relatively safe, it is a surgical procedure, and it carries the risk of major and minor complications. These complications vary from postoperative nausea to life-threatening events. Common complications include infection, abdominal wall injury, bowel herniation, bleeding, haematoma, seroma, and lymphoedema. Life-threatening complications such as necrotizing fasciitis, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism have also been reported. In this paper, we provide a brief introduction to liposuction with the related anatomy and present computed tomography and ultrasonography findings of a wide spectrum of postoperative complications associated with liposuction. PMID:26576108

A Universal Anaphylaxis Emergency Care Plan: Introducing the New Allergy and Anaphylaxis Care Plan From the American Academy of Pediatrics.

PubMed

Pistiner, Michael; Mattey, Beth

2017-09-01

Anaphylaxis is a life-threatening emergency. In the school setting, school nurses prepare plans to prevent an emergency, educating staff and students on life-threatening allergies. A critical component of any emergency plan is a plan of care in the event of accidental ingestion or exposure to an antigen to prevent the sequelae of untreated anaphylaxis. A universal anaphylaxis emergency care plan developed by the American Academy of Pediatrics and reviewed by NASN offers an opportunity for schools, family, and health care providers to use one standard plan and avoid confusion. The plan and benefits of use are described in this article.

The impact of seed extraction on the population dynamics of Pinus maximartinezii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Mata, Lauro

2013-05-01

Pinus maximartinezii is a rare, endemic, threatened species known from a single small population in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico. Among the pine species that produce edible nuts, it produces one of the largest and most nutritious seeds. The seeds of P. maximartinezii have historically been used for human consumption. The cones are harvested directly from the trees, and the seeds are sold illegally in local, national and international markets. However, the effects of seed extraction must be thoroughly evaluated to determine the potential impacts on population stability. To assess the impact of different rates of seed harvesting on the demography of this species, a 2-yr study of population dynamics was conducted in three 0.1-ha plots. A 9 × 9 size-structured matrix model was used to simulate changes in population growth over time in conjunction with increasing stepwise reductions in fecundity. The population growth rate (λ) of P. maximartinezii was 1.1175, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) from 1.1008 to 1.1321, and it was relatively insensitive to changes in fecundity and growth. Under a seed extraction intensity of 99%, λ decreased to 1.0241, with a CI from 1.0177 to 1.0361. Elasticity analysis was then performed to identify the combined effects of proportional changes in fecundities and the largest stasis elements on λ. The results suggest that a sound conservation strategy should focus on improving the survival of juveniles and adults during their first reproductive events and on the largest adults, as well as on protecting the habitat of this threatened endemic species.

Amygdala neural activity reflects spatial attention towards stimuli promising reward or threatening punishment

PubMed Central

Peck, Christopher J; Salzman, C Daniel

2014-01-01

Humans and other animals routinely identify and attend to sensory stimuli so as to rapidly acquire rewards or avoid aversive experiences. Emotional arousal, a process mediated by the amygdala, can enhance attention to stimuli in a non-spatial manner. However, amygdala neural activity was recently shown to encode spatial information about reward-predictive stimuli, and to correlate with spatial attention allocation. If representing the motivational significance of sensory stimuli within a spatial framework reflects a general principle of amygdala function, then spatially selective neural responses should also be elicited by sensory stimuli threatening aversive events. Recordings from amygdala neurons were therefore obtained while monkeys directed spatial attention towards stimuli promising reward or threatening punishment. Neural responses encoded spatial information similarly for stimuli associated with both valences of reinforcement, and responses reflected spatial attention allocation. The amygdala therefore may act to enhance spatial attention to sensory stimuli associated with rewarding or aversive experiences. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04478.001 PMID:25358090

Written content indicators of problematic approach behavior toward political officials.

PubMed

Schoeneman, Katherine A; Scalora, Mario J; Darrow, Charles D; McLawsen, Julia E; Chang, Grace H; Zimmerman, William J

2011-01-01

Those charged with assessing and managing threatening communications must utilize risk factors that are behavioral, operational, and reasonably attainable during investigations. This project examined 326 written correspondence cases of an inappropriate, disruptive, or threatening nature that targeted political officials, with the specific goal of identifying written content indicators of problematic approach behavior. Results revealed that subjects who engaged in problematic approach activity toward their targets had more criminal history, past threat assessment activity, familiarity with firearms, past substance use, and indicators of serious mental illness. Approachers were more likely to engage in multiple contact methods, target dispersion, more overall contacts, and prior contact with their target. Numerous content themes were associated with future problematic approach, including longer handwritten correspondence, referencing specific events, making demands, mentioning stressors, focus on personal themes, feeling their rights were violated, and expressing an intention to approach. Harassing, insulting, and threatening language was not related to approach behavior. The implications of these findings are wide-ranging for the practice of threat assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating average and atypical response in radiation effects simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, R. A.; Sternberg, A. L.; Massengill, L. W.; Schrimpf, R. D.; Fleetwood, D. M.

2003-12-01

We examine the limits of performing single-event simulations using pre-averaged radiation events. Geant4 simulations show the necessity, for future devices, to supplement current methods with ensemble averaging of device-level responses to physically realistic radiation events. Initial Monte Carlo simulations have generated a significant number of extremal events in local energy deposition. These simulations strongly suggest that proton strikes of sufficient energy, even those that initiate purely electronic interactions, can initiate device response capable in principle of producing single event upset or microdose damage in highly scaled devices.

Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

PubMed

Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

2016-08-31

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

Apnea in the term infant.

PubMed

Patrinos, Mary Elaine; Martin, Richard J

2017-08-01

Whereas apnea of prematurity has been well defined and its pathophysiology extensively studied, apnea in the term infant remains a greater challenge. Unfortunately, clear diagnostic criteria are lacking and pathogenesis and management vary widely. In this review we have arbitrarily organized the discussion chronologically into earlier and later postnatal periods. In the first days of life, presumed apnea may reflect physiologic events such as positional or feeding etiologies, or may be a manifestation of serious pathophysiology, such as a seizure disorder. Beyond the neonatal period, presumed apnea may be characterized as a BRUE event (brief resolved unexplained event; formerly referred to as ALTE: apparent life-threatening event) and most frequently a precipitating event cannot be identified. Medical providers are left with somewhat of a dilemma regarding the need to hospitalize and/or work up such patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel nursing terminologies for the rapid response system.

PubMed

Wong, Elizabeth

2009-01-01

Nursing terminology with implications for the rapid response system (RRS) is introduced and proposed: critical incident nursing diagnosis (CIND), defined as the recognition of an acute life-threatening event that occurs as a result of disease, surgery, treatment, or medication; critical incident nursing intervention, defined as any indirect or direct care registered nurse-initiated treatment, based upon clinical judgment and knowledge that a registered nurse performs in response to a CIND; and critical incident control, defined as a response that attempts to reverse a life-threatening condition. The current literature, research studies, meta-analyses from a variety of disciplines, and personal clinical experience serve as the data sources for this article. The current nursing diagnoses, nursing interventions, and nursing outcomes listed in the North American Nursing Diagnosis Association International Classification, Nursing Interventions Classification (NIC), and Nursing Outcomes Classification (NOC), respectively, are inaccurate or inadequate for describing nursing care during life-threatening situations. The lack of such standardized nursing terminology creates a barrier that may impede critical communication and patient care during life-threatening situations when activating the RRS. The North American Nursing Diagnosis Association International Classification, NIC, and NOC are urged to refine their classifications and include CIND, critical incident nursing intervention, and critical incident control. The RRS should incorporate standardized nursing terminology to describe patient care during life-threatening situations. Refining the diagnoses, interventions, and outcomes classifications will permit nursing researchers, among others, to conduct studies on the efficacy of the proposed novel nursing terminology when providing care to patients during life-threatening situations. In addition, including the proposed novel nursing terminology in the RRS offers a means of improving care in such situations.

USMC Inventory Control Using Optimization Modeling and Discrete Event Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

release. Distribution is unlimited. USMC INVENTORY CONTROL USING OPTIMIZATION MODELING AND DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION by Timothy A. Curling...USING OPTIMIZATION MODELING AND DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Timothy A. Curling 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S...optimization and discrete -event simulation. This construct can potentially provide an effective means in improving order management decisions. However

ANALYSIS OF INPATIENT HOSPITAL STAFF MENTAL WORKLOAD BY MEANS OF DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-24

ANALYSIS OF INPATIENT HOSPITAL STAFF MENTAL WORKLOAD BY MEANS OF DISCRETE -EVENT SIMULATION...in the United States. AFIT-ENV-MS-16-M-166 ANALYSIS OF INPATIENT HOSPITAL STAFF MENTAL WORKLOAD BY MEANS OF DISCRETE -EVENT SIMULATION...UNLIMITED. AFIT-ENV-MS-16-M-166 ANALYSIS OF INPATIENT HOSPITAL STAFF MENTAL WORKLOAD BY MEANS OF DISCRETE -EVENT SIMULATION Erich W

Taking the Earth's Pulse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Robert L.; Benz, Harley Mitchell; Shedlock, Kaye M.; Brown, William M.

2000-01-01

During the past 35 years, scientists have developed a vast network of seismometers that record earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and nuclear explosions throughout the world. Seismographic data support disaster response, scientific research, and global security. With this network, the United States maintains world leadership in monitoring the greatest natural and technological events that threaten our planet's population.

Taking the Earth's pulse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Robert L.; Benz, Harly M.; Brown, William M.

1997-01-01

During the past 35 years, scientists have developed a vast network of seismometers that record earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and nuclear explosions throughout the world. Seismographic data support disaster response, scientific research, and global security. With this network, the United States maintains world leadership in monitoring the greatest natural and technological events that threaten our planet's population.

Runoff delay exerts a strong control on the field-scale removal of manure-borne fecal bacteria with runoff

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The microbial safety of surface waters is an ongoing issue which is threatened by the transport of manure-borne bacteria to water sources used for irrigation or recreation. Predictive modeling has become an effective tool to forecast the microbial quality of water duringprecipitation events, however...

Straight A's: Public Education Policy and Progress. Volume 7, Number 20

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amos, Jason, Ed.

2007-01-01

"Straight A's: Public Education Policy and Progress" is a biweekly newsletter that focuses on education news and events both in Washington, DC and around the country. The following articles are included in this issue: (1) Senate Begins Debate on Education Spending Bill: White House Threatens Presidential Veto; (2) NCLB Timetable in…

Development of a New Fear of Hypoglycemia Scale: FH-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anarte Ortiz, Maria Teresa; Caballero, Francisco Felix; Ruiz de Adana, Maria Soledad; Rondan, Rosa Maria; Carreira, Monica; Dominguez-Lopez, Marta; Machado, Alberto; Gonzalo-Marin, Montserrat; Tapia, Maria Jose; Valdes, Sergio; Gonzalez-Romero, Stella; Soriguer, Federico C.

2011-01-01

Hypoglycemia is the most common adverse event associated with insulin treatment in diabetes. The consequences of hypoglycemia can be quite aversive and potentially life threatening. The physical sequelae provide ample reason for patients to fear hypoglycemia and avoid episodes. For these reasons, our purpose in this study was to develop a new…

The Importance of the Peritraumatic Experience in Defining Traumatic Stress

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bovin, Michelle J.; Marx, Brian P.

2011-01-01

In the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev., "DSM-IV-TR"; American Psychiatric Association, 2000), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Criterion A2 stipulates that an individual must experience intense fear, helplessness, or horror during an event that threatened the life or physical integrity of oneself or…

Protection Motivation and Self-Efficacy: A Model of Health Enhancement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanley, Melinda A.

Protection motivation theory proposes that a perceived threat to health activates cognitive appraisals of the severity of the threatened event, the probability of its occurrence, and the efficacy of a coping response; a recent reformulation of the theory incorporates self-efficacy expectancy as a fourth mediating cognitive process. To test the…

Straight A's: Public Education Policy and Progress. Volume 12, Number 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amos, Jason, Ed.

2012-01-01

"Straight A's: Public Education Policy and Progress" is a biweekly newsletter that focuses on education news and events both in Washington, DC and around the country. The following articles are included in this issue: (1) Waiving Away High School Graduation Rate Accountability?: State NCLB Waiver Proposals Threaten to Weaken…

Reclaiming School in the Aftermath of Trauma: Advice Based on Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mears, Carolyn Lunsford, Ed.

2012-01-01

September 11... Virginia Tech... Columbine... Hurricane Katrina... Traumatic events with long lasting consequences. Lives are upended, safety is threatened, and all are forced to find a way to adapt to a new normal. Educators in schools where students have experienced trauma face difficult challenges, for how are they to promote academic growth…

78 FR 67365 - Circulatory System Devices Panel of the Medical Devices Advisory Committee; Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-12

... reduce the risk of life-threatening bleeding events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation who... premarket approval application regarding the Boston Scientific WATCHMAN Left Atrial Appendage (LAA) Closure... placed in the left atrial appendage. This device is intended to prevent thrombus embolization from the...

Comprehensive methods for earlier detection and monitoring of forest decline

Treesearch

Jennifer Pontius; Richard Hallett

2014-01-01

Forested ecosystems are threatened by invasive pests, pathogens, and unusual climatic events brought about by climate change. Earlier detection of incipient forest health problems and a quantitatively rigorous assessment method is increasingly important. Here, we describe a method that is adaptable across tree species and stress agents and practical for use in the...

Strategies for Playground Injury Prevention: An Overview of a Playground Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsen, Heather; Hudson, Susan D.; Thompson, Donna

2010-01-01

Preventing injuries to children, especially debilitating and life threatening, requires an awareness of where these types of injuries occur during the school days. This review examines falls from playground equipment, events that have been identified as the leading causes of nonfatal unintentional injuries for children. Thus, the issue of…

Developing Higher Education Programs in Emergency Management: Ghana's Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yakubu, Mariama Bisongu

2013-01-01

Ghana is highly vulnerable and threatened by several hazards and has sought ways of minimizing impacts of hazards events over time including demonstrating an interest in developing an emergency management training and an higher education degree program. Yet, as of 2013, the country has not developed a disaster management training program or a…

Responses to Childhood Trauma: An International Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Little, Steven G.; Akin-Little, Angeleque

2011-01-01

Children throughout the world are exposed to traumatic events such as sexual or physical abuse, severe accidents, cancer or other life threatening illness, natural or man-made disasters, war, terrorism, the sudden death of a parent or close friend or relative, among other things. Recently, natural disasters have caused property damage and loss of…

Ticking Time Bomb: U. of South Florida Responds to a Threat of Terrorism.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fender, Rickard C.

1996-01-01

The University of South Florida's emergency plans were found inadequate when its campus newspaper received a letter threatening extensive destruction. A group of 31 representatives of 20 areas of the institution created 11 subplans for an emergency preparedness center, personnel, events and activities, faculty/student relations, communications,…

Epidemiology of Adverse Events and Medical Errors in the Care of Cardiology Patients.

PubMed

Ohta, Yoshinori; Miki, Izumi; Kimura, Takeshi; Abe, Mitsuru; Sakuma, Mio; Koike, Kaoru; Morimoto, Takeshi

2016-11-02

There have been epidemiological studies of adverse events (AEs) among general patients but those of patients cared by cardiologist are not well scrutinized. We investigated the occurrence of AEs and medical errors (MEs) among adult patients with cardiology in Japan. We conducted a cross-sectional study of adult outpatients at a Japanese teaching hospital from February through November 2006. We measured AE and ME incidents from patient report, which were verified by medical records, laboratory data, incident reports, and prescription queries. Two independent physicians reviewed the incidents to determine whether they were AEs or MEs and to assess severity and symptoms. We identified 144 AEs and 30 MEs (16.3 and 3.9 per 100 patients, respectively). Of the 144 AEs, 99 were solely adverse drug events (ADEs), 20 were solely non-ADEs, and the remaining 25 were both causes. The most frequent symptoms of ADEs were skin and allergic reactions due to medication. The most frequent symptoms of non-ADEs were bleeding due to therapeutic interventions. Among AEs, 12% was life threatening. Life-threatening AEs were 25% of non-ADEs and 5% of ADEs (P = 0.0003). Among the 30 MEs, 21MEs (70%) were associated with drugs. Adverse events were common among cardiology patients. Adverse drug events were the most frequent AEs, and non-ADEs were more critical than ADEs. Such data should be recognized among practicing physicians to improve the patients' outcomes.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially.

Posttraumatic stress disorder after myocardial infarction and coronary artery bypass grafting.

PubMed

Singh, Amitoj; Agrawal, Sahil; Gargya, Sanchita; Saluja, Sabir; Kumar, Akshat; Kumar, Abhishek; Kalra, Kartik; Thind, Munveer; Saluja, Sajeev; Stone, Lauren E; Ali, Farhan; Duarte-Chavez, Rodrigo; Marchionni, Christine; Sholevar, Farhad; Shirani, Jamshid; Nanda, Sudip

2017-01-01

Post traumatic stress disorder is a psychiatric disease that is usually precipitated by life threatening stressors. Myocardial infarction, especially in the young can count as one such event. The development of post traumatic stress after a coronary event not only adversely effects psychiatric health, but leads to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. There is increasing evidence that like major depression, post traumatic stress disorder is also a strong coronary risk factor. Early diagnosis and treatment of this disease in patients with acute manifestations of coronary artery disease can improve patient outcomes.

The ALTE mysteries: who's to blame?

PubMed

Wickham, Sara

2016-02-01

In this column, Sara Wickham takes a sideways look at issues relevant to midwives, students, women and families, inviting us to sit down with a cup of tea and ponder what we think we know. A recent paper on apparent life-threatening events (ALTEs) in newborn babies brought to mind an experience from practice, the cause of which remains a mystery. As many similar events are unexplained, is it acceptable that there is a tendency in the literature to claim that skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding are risk factors for ALTEs?

An Empirical Study of Combining Communicating Processes in a Parallel Discrete Event Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

dynamics of the cost/performance criteria which typically made up computer resource acquisition decisions . offering a broad range of tradeoffs in the way... prcesses has a significant impact on simulation performance. It is the hypothesis of this 3-4 SYSTEM DECOMPOSITION PHYSICAL SYSTEM 1: N PHYSICAL PROCESS 1...EMPTY)) next-event = pop(next-event-queue); lp-clock = next-event - time; Simulate next event departure- consume event-enqueue new event end while; If no

The Time Dependent Propensity Function for Acceleration of Spatial Stochastic Simulation of Reaction-Diffusion Systems

PubMed Central

Wu, Sheng; Li, Hong; Petzold, Linda R.

2015-01-01

The inhomogeneous stochastic simulation algorithm (ISSA) is a fundamental method for spatial stochastic simulation. However, when diffusion events occur more frequently than reaction events, simulating the diffusion events by ISSA is quite costly. To reduce this cost, we propose to use the time dependent propensity function in each step. In this way we can avoid simulating individual diffusion events, and use the time interval between two adjacent reaction events as the simulation stepsize. We demonstrate that the new algorithm can achieve orders of magnitude efficiency gains over widely-used exact algorithms, scales well with increasing grid resolution, and maintains a high level of accuracy. PMID:26609185

A model for long-distance dispersal of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westbrook, John K.; Eyster, Ritchie S.; Allen, Charles T.

2011-07-01

The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis (Boheman), has been a major insect pest of cotton production in the US, accounting for yield losses and control costs on the order of several billion US dollars since the introduction of the pest in 1892. Boll weevil eradication programs have eliminated reproducing populations in nearly 94%, and progressed toward eradication within the remaining 6%, of cotton production areas. However, the ability of weevils to disperse and reinfest eradicated zones threatens to undermine the previous investment toward eradication of this pest. In this study, the HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model was used to simulate daily wind-aided dispersal of weevils from the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Simulated weevil dispersal was compared with weekly capture of weevils in pheromone traps along highway trap lines between the LRGV and the South Texas / Winter Garden zone of the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Program. A logistic regression model was fit to the probability of capturing at least one weevil in individual pheromone traps relative to specific values of simulated weevil dispersal, which resulted in 60.4% concordance, 21.3% discordance, and 18.3% ties in estimating captures and non-captures. During the first full year of active eradication with widespread insecticide applications in 2006, the dispersal model accurately estimated 71.8%, erroneously estimated 12.5%, and tied 15.7% of capture and non-capture events. Model simulations provide a temporal risk assessment over large areas of weevil reinfestation resulting from dispersal by prevailing winds. Eradication program managers can use the model risk assessment information to effectively schedule and target enhanced trapping, crop scouting, and insecticide applications.

A model for long-distance dispersal of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

PubMed

Westbrook, John K; Eyster, Ritchie S; Allen, Charles T

2011-07-01

The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis (Boheman), has been a major insect pest of cotton production in the US, accounting for yield losses and control costs on the order of several billion US dollars since the introduction of the pest in 1892. Boll weevil eradication programs have eliminated reproducing populations in nearly 94%, and progressed toward eradication within the remaining 6%, of cotton production areas. However, the ability of weevils to disperse and reinfest eradicated zones threatens to undermine the previous investment toward eradication of this pest. In this study, the HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model was used to simulate daily wind-aided dispersal of weevils from the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Simulated weevil dispersal was compared with weekly capture of weevils in pheromone traps along highway trap lines between the LRGV and the South Texas/Winter Garden zone of the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Program. A logistic regression model was fit to the probability of capturing at least one weevil in individual pheromone traps relative to specific values of simulated weevil dispersal, which resulted in 60.4% concordance, 21.3% discordance, and 18.3% ties in estimating captures and non-captures. During the first full year of active eradication with widespread insecticide applications in 2006, the dispersal model accurately estimated 71.8%, erroneously estimated 12.5%, and tied 15.7% of capture and non-capture events. Model simulations provide a temporal risk assessment over large areas of weevil reinfestation resulting from dispersal by prevailing winds. Eradication program managers can use the model risk assessment information to effectively schedule and target enhanced trapping, crop scouting, and insecticide applications.

A numerical field experiment approach for determining probabilities of microburst intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Droegemeier, Kelvin K.; Zweifel, Terry

1992-01-01

Several investigators had determined that some atmospheric parameters were related to the formation and severity of microbursts. For example, Caracena pointed out the relationship between a dry adiabatic lapse rate and microbursts in 'The crash of Delta Flight 191 at Dallas-Fort Worth international airport'. These early investigations led to the idea that numeric modeling of microbursts with varying atmospheric parameters might define 'signatures' that could lead to determining the probability of microburst intensity. The idea was that, by using already available sensors (such as static air temperature, pressure altitude, and radar reflectivity) onboard an aircraft, a reliable prediction of microburst existence and intensity could be formed. Such data could be used to create an 'expert meteorologist' using either artificial intelligence or other techniques that could be used in either reactive or look-ahead systems to vary sensitivity thresholds and coordinate the inputs from different detecting systems. To this end, Honeywell contracted to have the microburst simulations run. The questions to be addressed were the following: using the sensor set available to the aircraft (e.g. temperature, radar reflectivity, etc.), can we calculate the probability that (1) a microburst could be formed? and (2) that the resultant winds would be of sufficient magnitude to threaten the aircraft? Over a two year period, a data set of 1800 microburst simulations was accumulated. Verification of the microburst simulation was obtained using the results of other independent researchers and actual comparison to microburst events in Orlando and Denver. Some of the results from the simulation have already been incorporated into Honeywell's Windshear Detection and Guidance System with excellent results. Various aspects of this investigation are presented in viewgraph form.

Near-death experiences in non-life-threatening events and coma of different etiologies

PubMed Central

Charland-Verville, Vanessa; Jourdan, Jean-Pierre; Thonnard, Marie; Ledoux, Didier; Donneau, Anne-Francoise; Quertemont, Etienne; Laureys, Steven

2014-01-01

Background: Near death experiences (NDEs) are increasingly being reported as a clearly identifiable physiological and psychological reality of clinical significance. However, the definition and causes of the phenomenon as well as the identification of NDE experiencers is still a matter of debate. To date, the most widely used standardized tool to identify and characterize NDEs in research is the Greyson NDE scale. Using this scale, retrospective and prospective studies have been trying to estimate their incidence in various populations but few studies have attempted to associate the experiences' intensity and content to etiology. Methods: This retrospective investigation assessed the intensity and the most frequently recounted features of self-reported NDEs after a non-life-threatening event (i.e., “NDE-like” experience) or after a pathological coma (i.e., “real NDE”) and according to the etiology of the acute brain insult. We also compared our retrospectively acquired data in anoxic coma with historical data from the published literature on prospective post-anoxic studies using the Greyson NDE scale. Results: From our 190 reports who met the criteria for NDE (i.e., Greyson NDE scale total score >7/32), intensity (i.e., Greyson NDE scale total score) and content (i.e., Greyson NDE scale features) did not differ between “NDE-like” (n = 50) and “real NDE” (n = 140) groups, nor within the “real NDE” group depending on the cause of coma (anoxic/traumatic/other). The most frequently reported feature was peacefulness (89–93%). Only 2 patients (1%) recounted a negative experience. The overall NDE core features' frequencies were higher in our retrospective anoxic cohort when compared to historical published prospective data. Conclusions: It appears that “real NDEs” after coma of different etiologies are similar to “NDE-like” experiences occurring after non-life threatening events. Subjects reporting NDEs retrospectively tend to have experienced a different content compared to the prospective experiencers. PMID:24904345

Locations and Mucosal Lesions Responsible for Major Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Patients on Warfarin or Dabigatran.

PubMed

Kolb, Jennifer M; Flack, Kathryn Friedman; Chatterjee-Murphy, Prapti; Desai, Jay; Wallentin, Lars C; Ezekowitz, Michael; Connolly, Stuart; Reilly, Paul; Brueckmann, Martina; Ilgenfritz, John; Aisenberg, James

2018-03-27

Different oral anticoagulants may be associated with gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) from different locations or mucosal lesions. We aimed to test this hypothesis. Two blinded gastroenterologists independently analyzed source documents from the randomized evaluation of long-term anticoagulant therapy (RE-LY) trial of dabigatran 150 mg BID (D150), dabigatran 110 mg BID (D110) versus warfarin in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Major GIB events (total n = 546) and life-threatening GIB events (n = 258) were more common with D150 versus warfarin (RR 1.57 [1.28-1.92] and RR 1.62 [1.20-2.18], respectively) and similar for D110 compared to warfarin (RR 1.11 [0.89-1.38] and RR 1.16 [0.84-1.61], respectively). Fatal bleeding was similarly rare across treatment groups. Lower GI major bleeding and life-threatening bleeding were more common with D150 compared to warfarin (RR 2.23 [1.47, 3.38] and RR 2.64 [1.36, 5.13], respectively) and with D110 compared to warfarin (RR 1.78 [1.16, 2.75] and RR 2.00 [1.00, 4.00], respectively). MGIB from colonic angiodysplasia was increased with dabigatran versus warfarin (P < 0.01 for both dose comparisons). Subacute and chronic MGIB events were more common with D150 than with warfarin (RR 1.72 [1.06, 2.78] and RR 1.66 [1.12, 2.45], respectively), as were hematochezia or melena (RR 1.67 [1.18, 2.36] and RR 1.72 [1.20, 2.47], respectively). In a chronic NVAF population, D150 but not D110 is associated with increased major and life-threatening GI bleeding in comparison with warfarin. At both dabigatran doses, increased bleeding from the colorectum, in particular from angiodysplasia, is seen.

Near-death experiences in non-life-threatening events and coma of different etiologies.

PubMed

Charland-Verville, Vanessa; Jourdan, Jean-Pierre; Thonnard, Marie; Ledoux, Didier; Donneau, Anne-Francoise; Quertemont, Etienne; Laureys, Steven

2014-01-01

Near death experiences (NDEs) are increasingly being reported as a clearly identifiable physiological and psychological reality of clinical significance. However, the definition and causes of the phenomenon as well as the identification of NDE experiencers is still a matter of debate. To date, the most widely used standardized tool to identify and characterize NDEs in research is the Greyson NDE scale. Using this scale, retrospective and prospective studies have been trying to estimate their incidence in various populations but few studies have attempted to associate the experiences' intensity and content to etiology. This retrospective investigation assessed the intensity and the most frequently recounted features of self-reported NDEs after a non-life-threatening event (i.e., "NDE-like" experience) or after a pathological coma (i.e., "real NDE") and according to the etiology of the acute brain insult. We also compared our retrospectively acquired data in anoxic coma with historical data from the published literature on prospective post-anoxic studies using the Greyson NDE scale. From our 190 reports who met the criteria for NDE (i.e., Greyson NDE scale total score >7/32), intensity (i.e., Greyson NDE scale total score) and content (i.e., Greyson NDE scale features) did not differ between "NDE-like" (n = 50) and "real NDE" (n = 140) groups, nor within the "real NDE" group depending on the cause of coma (anoxic/traumatic/other). The most frequently reported feature was peacefulness (89-93%). Only 2 patients (1%) recounted a negative experience. The overall NDE core features' frequencies were higher in our retrospective anoxic cohort when compared to historical published prospective data. It appears that "real NDEs" after coma of different etiologies are similar to "NDE-like" experiences occurring after non-life threatening events. Subjects reporting NDEs retrospectively tend to have experienced a different content compared to the prospective experiencers.

Program For Simulation Of Trajectories And Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gottlieb, Robert G.

1992-01-01

Universal Simulation Executive (USE) program accelerates and eases generation of application programs for numerical simulation of continuous trajectories interrupted by or containing discrete events. Developed for simulation of multiple spacecraft trajectories with events as one spacecraft crossing the equator, two spacecraft meeting or parting, or firing rocket engine. USE also simulates operation of chemical batch processing factory. Written in Ada.

Defining the problem, main objective, and strategies of medical management in mass-casualty incidents caused by terrorist events.

PubMed

Ashkenazi, Itamar; Kessel, Boris; Olsha, Oded; Khashan, Tawfik; Oren, Meir; Haspel, Jacob; Alfici, Ricardo

2008-01-01

Based on the experience of managing > 20 such events during the last decade, the authors' understanding of a mass-casualty incident is that it is an event in which there may be many victims, but only a few that actually suffer from life-threatening injuries. To make an impact on survival, one must identify those who are severely wounded as quickly as possible and offer those patients optimal care. Experienced trauma physicians are the most important resource available to achieve this objective, and they should be allocated to the treatment of seriously injured victims instead of more traditional management roles such as triage and incident manager.

The Use of BS7799 Information Security Standard to Construct Mechanisms for the Management of Medical Organization Information Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shu-Fan; Chueh, Hao-En; Liao, Kuo-Hsiung

According to surveys, 80 % of security related events threatening information in medical organizations is due to improper management. Most research on information security has focused on information and security technology, such as network security and access control; rarely addressing issues at the management issues. The main purpose of this study is to construct a BS7799 based mechanism for the management of information with regard to security as it applies to medical organizations. This study analyzes and identifies the most common events related to information security in medical organizations and categorizes these events as high-risk, transferable-risk, and controlled-risk to facilitate the management of such risk.

Response of human populations to large-scale emergencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagrow, James; Wang, Dashun; Barabási, Albert-László

2010-03-01

Until recently, little quantitative data regarding collective human behavior during dangerous events such as bombings and riots have been available, despite its importance for emergency management, safety and urban planning. Understanding how populations react to danger is critical for prediction, detection and intervention strategies. Using a large telecommunications dataset, we study for the first time the spatiotemporal, social and demographic response properties of people during several disasters, including a bombing, a city-wide power outage, and an earthquake. Call activity rapidly increases after an event and we find that, when faced with a truly life-threatening emergency, information rapidly propagates through a population's social network. Other events, such as sports games, do not exhibit this propagation.

Simulation of a master-slave event set processor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Comfort, J.C.

1984-03-01

Event set manipulation may consume a considerable amount of the computation time spent in performing a discrete-event simulation. One way of minimizing this time is to allow event set processing to proceed in parallel with the remainder of the simulation computation. The paper describes a multiprocessor simulation computer, in which all non-event set processing is performed by the principal processor (called the host). Event set processing is coordinated by a front end processor (the master) and actually performed by several other functionally identical processors (the slaves). A trace-driven simulation program modeling this system was constructed, and was run with tracemore » output taken from two different simulation programs. Output from this simulation suggests that a significant reduction in run time may be realized by this approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the significant parameters to the system (number of slave processors, relative processor speeds, and interprocessor communication times). A comparison between actual and simulation run times for a one-processor system was used to assist in the validation of the simulation. 7 references.« less

Parallel discrete event simulation: A shared memory approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, Daniel A.; Malony, Allen D.; Mccredie, Bradley D.

1987-01-01

With traditional event list techniques, evaluating a detailed discrete event simulation model can often require hours or even days of computation time. Parallel simulation mimics the interacting servers and queues of a real system by assigning each simulated entity to a processor. By eliminating the event list and maintaining only sufficient synchronization to insure causality, parallel simulation can potentially provide speedups that are linear in the number of processors. A set of shared memory experiments is presented using the Chandy-Misra distributed simulation algorithm to simulate networks of queues. Parameters include queueing network topology and routing probabilities, number of processors, and assignment of network nodes to processors. These experiments show that Chandy-Misra distributed simulation is a questionable alternative to sequential simulation of most queueing network models.

Parallel discrete event simulation using shared memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, Daniel A.; Malony, Allen D.; Mccredie, Bradley D.

1988-01-01

With traditional event-list techniques, evaluating a detailed discrete-event simulation-model can often require hours or even days of computation time. By eliminating the event list and maintaining only sufficient synchronization to ensure causality, parallel simulation can potentially provide speedups that are linear in the numbers of processors. A set of shared-memory experiments, using the Chandy-Misra distributed-simulation algorithm, to simulate networks of queues is presented. Parameters of the study include queueing network topology and routing probabilities, number of processors, and assignment of network nodes to processors. These experiments show that Chandy-Misra distributed simulation is a questionable alternative to sequential-simulation of most queueing network models.

Simulating the productivity of desert woody shrubs in southwestern Texas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the southwestern U.S., many rangelands have converted from native grasslands to woody shrublands dominated by creosotebush (Larrea tridentate) and honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), threatening ecosystem health. Both creosotebush and mesquite have well-developed long root systems that allow t...

Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

PubMed Central

Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

2016-01-01

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

Real-time management of an urban groundwater well field threatened by pollution.

PubMed

Bauser, Gero; Franssen, Harrie-Jan Hendricks; Kaiser, Hans-Peter; Kuhlmann, Ulrich; Stauffer, Fritz; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang

2010-09-01

We present an optimal real-time control approach for the management of drinking water well fields. The methodology is applied to the Hardhof field in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, which is threatened by diffuse pollution. The risk of attracting pollutants is higher if the pumping rate is increased and can be reduced by increasing artificial recharge (AR) or by adaptive allocation of the AR. The method was first tested in offline simulations with a three-dimensional finite element variably saturated subsurface flow model for the period January 2004-August 2005. The simulations revealed that (1) optimal control results were more effective than the historical control results and (2) the spatial distribution of AR should be different from the historical one. Next, the methodology was extended to a real-time control method based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter method, using 87 online groundwater head measurements, and tested at the site. The real-time control of the well field resulted in a decrease of the electrical conductivity of the water at critical measurement points which indicates a reduced inflow of water originating from contaminated sites. It can be concluded that the simulation and the application confirm the feasibility of the real-time control concept.

Hydrologic modeling of two glaciated watersheds in Northeast Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Srinivasan, M.S.; Hamlett, J.M.; Day, R.L.; Sams, J.I.; Petersen, G.W.

1998-01-01

A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36 x 106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82 x 106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36??106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82??106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.

Management of pulmonary toxicity associated with targeted anticancer therapies.

PubMed

Teuwen, Laure-Anne; Van den Mooter, Tom; Dirix, Luc

2015-01-01

Targeted anticancer therapies act by interfering with defined molecular entities and/or biologic pathways. Because of their more specific mechanism of action, adverse events (AEs) on healthy tissues are intended to be minimal, resulting in a different toxicity profile from that observed with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy. Pulmonary AEs are rare but potentially life-threatening and it is, therefore, critical to recognize early on and manage appropriately. In this review, we aim to offer an overview of both more frequent and rare pulmonary AEs caused by targeted anticancer therapies and discuss possible treatment algorithms. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor, anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor and anti-CD20 therapy will be reviewed, as well as immune checkpoint inhibitors, anaplastic lymphoma kinase inhibitors and mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors. Novel agents used in the treatment of cancer have specific side-effects, the result of allergic reactions, on-target and off-target effects. Clinical syndromes associated with pulmonary toxicity vary from bronchospasms, hypersensitivity reactions, pneumonitis, acute respiratory distress, lung bleeding, pleural effusion to pneumothorax. Knowledge of risk factors, a high index of suspicion and a complete diagnostic work-up are essential for limiting the risk of these events becoming life threatening. The development of treatment algorithms is extremely helpful in managing these events. It is probable that these toxicities will be even more frequent with the introduction of combination therapies with the obvious challenge of discerning the responsible agent.

Circadian and seasonal variation of malignant arrhythmias in a pediatric and congenital heart disease population.

PubMed

Stephenson, Elizabeth A; Collins, Kathryn K; Dubin, Anne M; Epstein, Michael R; Hamilton, Robert M; Kertesz, Naomi J; Alexander, Mark E; Cecchin, Frank; Triedman, John K; Walsh, Edward P; Berul, Charles I

2002-10-01

Recent studies in adult populations have revealed seasonal variation in the frequency of acute cardiovascular events, including life-threatening arrhythmias, demonstrating increased events during winter and early spring. Trends in the time of day that arrhythmias occur also were noted. We sought to establish whether pediatric and young adult congenital heart disease implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) recipients have circadian or seasonal variability in shock frequency, similar to adult populations. Data from ICD patients at six pediatric centers in North America were analyzed to assess the timing of life-threatening arrhythmias. The populations consisted of children and adults with congenital heart disease and ICDs placed for malignant arrhythmias. Data were considered in 46 patients who received appropriate therapy (total 139 episodes) for ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation. Multiple variables were analyzed, including time of day, day of week, and month of year. In contrast to previously studied adult patients, fewer events occurred in the early morning (7.5%), with the most therapies occurring between 6 P.M. and midnight (35%). An increased frequency of therapies was observed in the fall and winter (September-January), representing 60% of all appropriate shocks. Unlike adult populations, Mondays did not have an increased frequency of malignant arrhythmias. Pediatric and adult congenital heart disease populations have moderate seasonal and 24-hour variation in ICD event rate, with some distinctly different peaks than those seen in typical adult ICD populations. These findings suggest circadian variation in arrhythmia vulnerability that may differ from conventional occupational, physical, or emotional stressors. (J Cardiovasc Electrophysiol, Vol. 13, pp.

Modeling Anti-Air Warfare With Discrete Event Simulation and Analyzing Naval Convoy Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

WARFARE WITH DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION AND ANALYZING NAVAL CONVOY OPERATIONS by Ali E. Opcin June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Arnold H. Buss Co...REPORT DATE June 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE MODELING ANTI-AIR WARFARE WITH DISCRETE EVENT...In this study, a discrete event simulation (DES) was built by modeling ships, and their sensors and weapons, to simulate convoy operations under

78 FR 58923 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for the Grotto...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-25

... stream channel, minimal sedimentation, organic input into caves during rain events, and a sufficient prey..., pp. 111-112; Niemiller et al. 2006, p. 43). Prey availability is related to the organic input that is transported with sediment and other organic materials via sinkholes into stream habitats (Burr et al. 2001, p...

Runoff delay exerts a strong control on the field-scale removal of manure-borne fecal bacteria with runoff

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The microbial safety of surface waters is an ongoing issue which is threatened by the transport of manure-borne bacteria to water sources used for irrigation or recreation. Predictive modeling has become an effective tool to forecast the microbial quality of water during precipitation events, howeve...

Trauma in Children: A Call to Action in School Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Little, Steven G.; Akin-Little, Angeleque

2013-01-01

Unfortunately, it is not uncommon for children or adolescents to be exposed to traumatic events. Experiences such as sexual or physical abuse, severe accidents, cancer or other life threatening illness, natural or man-made disasters, or the sudden death of a relative or peer can all result in maladaptive responses. As all children are in…

78 FR 41371 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife; Determination on Whether To List the Ribbon Seal as a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-10

... events that can be broadly divided into two periods: (1) spring and early summer (March-June) when... associated with ice. In spring and early summer, ribbon seal habitat is closely associated with the... southern edge of the continental shelf. Most of this ice melts by early summer. However, Burns (1969...

Education Policy: Globalization, Citizenship and Democracy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olssen, Mark; Codd, John; O'Neill, Anne-Marie

2004-01-01

The thesis at the centre of this book is that education policy in the twenty-first century is the key to global security, sustainability and survival. The events of 11 September 2001 (9/11) have shown that the era of global interdependence and interconnectivity is also an era in which human survival is threatened not only by the actions of states…

50 Years after Sputnik, America Sees Itself in Another Science Race

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brainard, Jeffrey

2007-01-01

Fifty years ago this month, the Soviet Union launched the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, an event that transformed American higher education. Americans felt threatened by the "red moon" overhead and communist know-how, and Congress supported a flurry of federal spending that helped to greatly expand the number of American research…

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Children: What Elementary Teachers Should Know

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ray, Jan

2014-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is not limited to the men and women who have been exposed to the horrors of war through military service. Children who are exposed to traumatic and life-threatening events, such as school shootings, physical and sexual abuse, and community violence, also can suffer from PTSD. This article explores the causes,…

DEMONSTRATING THE FEASIBILITY OF A BIOFUEL: PRODUCTION AND USE OF BIODIESEL FROM WASTE OIL FEEDSTOCK AND BIO-BASED METHANOL AT MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE

EPA Science Inventory

Fossil fuel combustion results in the emission of greenhouse gases. Currently, the earth is experiencing unprecedented, human-induced changes in the atmosphere with consequent and threatening changes to its climate. This event is due, in large part, to fossil fuel emissions.

Safer Beginnings: Perinatal Child-Parent Psychotherapy for Newborns and Mothers Exposed to Domestic Violence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lieberman, Alicia F.; Diaz, Manuela A.; Van Horn, Patricia

2009-01-01

Pregnancy is a time of heightened risk for domestic violence and of increased vulnerability to traumatic events. In this article, the authors explain how the experience of domestic violence during pregnancy threatens the newborn's healthy development as well as the parent-child relationship. San Francisco General Hospital's Perinatal Child-Parent…

"Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood": Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making.

PubMed

Lazrus, Heather; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann

2016-02-01

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder-area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Myasthenia gravis: descriptive analysis of life-threatening events in a recent nationwide registry.

PubMed

Ramos-Fransi, A; Rojas-García, R; Segovia, S; Márquez-Infante, C; Pardo, J; Coll-Cantí, J; Jericó, I; Illa, I

2015-07-01

Myasthenia gravis (MG) may become life-threatening if patients have respiratory insufficiency or dysphagia. This study aimed to determine the incidence, demographic characteristics, risk factors, response to treatment and outcome of these life-threatening events (LTEs) in a recent, population-based sample of MG patients. A retrospective analysis of MG patients who presented with an LTE between 2000 and 2013 was performed. Participants were identified from a neuromuscular diseases registry in Spain that includes 648 patients with MG (NMD-ES). Sixty-two (9.56%) patients had an LTE. Thirty-two were classified as class V according to the MG Foundation of America, and 30 as class IVB. Fifty per cent were previously diagnosed with MG and median duration of the disease before the LTE was 24 months (3-406). The most common related factor was infection (n = 18). All patients received intravenous human immunoglobulin; 11 had a second infusion and six had plasma exchange. Median time to feeding tube removal was 13 days (1-434). Median time to weaning from ventilation was 12 days (3-176), and it was significantly shorter in late onset MG (≥50 years) (P = 0.019). LTEs improved <2 weeks in 55.8% but did not improve until after 1 month in 20% of patients. Four patients died. No other factors influenced mortality or duration of LTEs. The percentage of LTEs in MG patients was low, particularly amongst those previously diagnosed and treated for the disease. The significant percentage of treatment-resistant LTEs indicates that more effective treatment approaches are needed for this vulnerable sub-population. © 2015 EAN.

ATLAS Simulation using Real Data: Embedding and Overlay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, Andrew; ATLAS Collaboration

2017-10-01

For some physics processes studied with the ATLAS detector, a more accurate simulation in some respects can be achieved by including real data into simulated events, with substantial potential improvements in the CPU, disk space, and memory usage of the standard simulation configuration, at the cost of significant database and networking challenges. Real proton-proton background events can be overlaid (at the detector digitization output stage) on a simulated hard-scatter process, to account for pileup background (from nearby bunch crossings), cavern background, and detector noise. A similar method is used to account for the large underlying event from heavy ion collisions, rather than directly simulating the full collision. Embedding replaces the muons found in Z→μμ decays in data with simulated taus at the same 4-momenta, thus preserving the underlying event and pileup from the original data event. In all these cases, care must be taken to exactly match detector conditions (beamspot, magnetic fields, alignments, dead sensors, etc.) between the real data event and the simulation. We will discuss the status of these overlay and embedding techniques within ATLAS software and computing.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2016-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2017-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Why Don't People Evacuate When Nature Threatens?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, K. J.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.; Orlove, B. S.

2011-12-01

Why do so many Southern Californians fail to evacuate when warned that winter storms have critically raised the risk of a debris flow in their neighborhoods? Have they perhaps not seen or heeded news coverage of past debris flow events? Are they unaware that recent fires made the hillsides above them more prone to gravity-driven processes? Do they think they can wait to start their cars until they can actually see the flow coming? Or have they merely experienced too many "false alarms" in past years, and no longer put much stock in the judgment of public officials or the ability of scientists to judge debris flow risk? In preparation for a simulation study that will place decision makers in a virtual house in the California foothills during a winter storm event, we explore the reasons that people do and do not evacuate in the face of potential debris flows. Working in collaboration with the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project for Southern California, we are surveying hundreds of local residents, from debris-flow prone areas and from elsewhere in the state, to establish their baseline knowledge (and misconceptions) about, attitudes toward, information use regarding, and experience with debris flows. Initial interviews with residents of recently hit neighborhoods give qualitative data suggesting that false-alarm effects and underestimation of risk are driving factors; these surveys will provide quantitative evidence to extend those findings. We will discuss the results of this survey in the context of a comprehensive body of psychology research that seeks to explain why people frequently appear to ignore or discount hazard warnings: neglecting to insure their homes and crops (Kunreuther, 1984), failing to evacuate in the face of storms and fires (Baker, 1991; Packham, 1995), and (barring a recent, vivid event) showing little support for measures that would manage or mitigate future hazards (Kunreuther, 2006a, 2006b; Weber, 2006). We will also consider the results of the survey in the context of findings from a similar simulation study on hurricane preparation and evacuation behavior in Florida, which suggests that prior outcomes affect the way that experience influences concern and evacuation behavior.

Mobile phone use for contacting emergency services in life-threatening circumstances.

PubMed

Wu, Olivia; Briggs, Andrew; Kemp, Tom; Gray, Alastair; MacIntyre, Kate; Rowley, Jack; Willett, Keith

2012-03-01

The potential health benefits of mobile phone use have not been widely studied, except for telemedicine-type applications. This study seeks to determine whether initial contact with emergency services via a mobile phone in life-threatening situations is associated with potential health benefits when compared to contact via a landline. A record-linkage study was carried out in which data from all emergency dispatches for immediately life-threatening events from a United Kingdom county ambulance service were linked to the Patient Admission System at two major local hospitals. Mortality (at the scene, at the emergency department [ED], and during hospitalization); transfer to the ED; admission (inpatient care, and intensive care unit); and length of stay were analyzed for calls classified as Code Red (immediately life-threatening) by initial exposure (mobile phone vs. landline), while controlling for potential confounding variables. Of 354,199 ambulances dispatched to attend emergency incidents, 66% transported patients to the hospital while 2% stood down due to death at the scene. Mobile phone compared to landline reporting of emergencies resulted in significant reductions in the risk of death at the scene (odds ratio [OR] 0.77), but not for death in the ED or during inpatient admission. The risk of being transferred to the ED and subsequent inpatient admission were significantly lower with reporting from mobile phones compared to landline (OR 0.93 and OR 0.82, respectively). In this study, evidence of statistical association was demonstrated between the use of mobile phones to alert ambulance services in life-threatening situations and improved outcomes for patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The ethics of educational methods to teach geoethics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Promduangsri, Pimnutcha; Crookall, David

2017-04-01

Our planet is in dire need of geoethical behaviour by all its citizens. That can only be achieved through education, on an intergenerational basis. Geoethics education needs to tackle real issues, not with a philosopher's stone, but using ethical practice. Geoethics happens essentially, not in what we say, but in what we do. Here the doing is twofold. First is deciding on educational content; in our case geoethical dilemmas related to pollution, sustainability, climate change, deforestation, acidification, limits to growth (planetary boundaries), and a myriad other life-threatening problems. Second are the educational methods that we select and use to help people learn that content. Achieving both is an uphill battle. It will continue to be uphill a wide range of concerns related to our ideas of what constitutes learning, of what is appropriate to learn, of the value placed on education, of how to teach, of societal power relations, and so on. The steepness of the hill depends also on the ethics we use to make content decisions and to facilitate learning episodes (usually called classes). My contention is that geoethics needs to be taught in all courses, at all levels and in all subjects worldwide; that is a long-term content objective. The shorter-term objective is the methods that we use to teach the geoethics. A variety of methods are used to teach geoethical issues, some appearing more successful than others. Methods that have made some considerable impact in various parts of the globe include simulation/gaming, role-play and other experiential learning approaches. These rely on creating a situation or event that the learner experiences first hand (rather than contemplating, as in a lecture). One might call such events geoethical simulations because their content focuses on some ethical dilemma related to the earth. For example, a conflict among stakeholders over management of water along a river, or competition among fishers for limited fish stocks (tragedy of the commons). This kind of learning method itself raises ethical issues. One set of ethical issues revolves round the content (as exemplified above); a second set concerns the manner in which the simulation is conducted and the effect it has on participants. Simulations of geoethical problems often generate strong emotions, just like their real-world counterparts. However, asking young people to participate in an emotion-generating event requires it to be done according to ethical principles. In many cases, many such simulations do more harm than good simply because they are not conducted properly. The simple fact of inviting people to participate in an emotionally challenging situation itself raises ethical issues, and this in turn has ethical implications for the way in which we conduct these kinds of geoethical simulations. In this presentation, we will briefly outline the basic principles of conducting geoethical simulation in an ethical manner. We will then illustrate the ethics involved in the practice; we will give examples of the steps, the materials and the precautions needed. We hope that this will inspire others to use such methods.

Rescue Assault Forces--Integrated Strategic Role in National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-04

Descriptions and simulations (198O), , I ’ Henry B. Well, hevelopent of a Dynamic Model to Evaluate the Effect of Natural Resource Policies on Recovery...Following a Nuciear Attack, Final Report, VoT I, DFscriptions and simulations (081TrT0-ll. , p. 28. Refers to quotes by Stalin and Brezhnev threatening...race is now on to develop laser and particle beam technology as missile defense systems for employment in outer space or _j from ground defense bases

Discrete event simulation and the resultant data storage system response in the operational mission environment of Jupiter-Saturn /Voyager/ spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukhopadhyay, A. K.

1978-01-01

The Data Storage Subsystem Simulator (DSSSIM) simulating (by ground software) occurrence of discrete events in the Voyager mission is described. Functional requirements for Data Storage Subsystems (DSS) simulation are discussed, and discrete event simulation/DSSSIM processing is covered. Four types of outputs associated with a typical DSSSIM run are presented, and DSSSIM limitations and constraints are outlined.

Improving prospective memory performance with future event simulation in traumatic brain injury patients.

PubMed

Mioni, Giovanna; Bertucci, Erica; Rosato, Antonella; Terrett, Gill; Rendell, Peter G; Zamuner, Massimo; Stablum, Franca

2017-06-01

Previous studies have shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients have difficulties with prospective memory (PM). Considering that PM is closely linked to independent living it is of primary interest to develop strategies that can improve PM performance in TBI patients. This study employed Virtual Week task as a measure of PM, and we included future event simulation to boost PM performance. Study 1 evaluated the efficacy of the strategy and investigated possible practice effects. Twenty-four healthy participants performed Virtual Week in a no strategy condition, and 24 healthy participants performed it in a mixed condition (no strategy - future event simulation). In Study 2, 18 TBI patients completed the mixed condition of Virtual Week and were compared with the 24 healthy controls who undertook the mixed condition of Virtual Week in Study 1. All participants also completed a neuropsychological evaluation to characterize the groups on level of cognitive functioning. Study 1 showed that participants in the future event simulation condition outperformed participants in the no strategy condition, and these results were not attributable to practice effects. Results of Study 2 showed that TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, but that future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. The future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. These studies showed the value of future event simulation strategy in improving PM performance in healthy participants as well as in TBI patients. TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, confirming prospective memory impairment in these patients. Participants in the future event simulation condition out-performed participants in the no strategy condition. Future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. Future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Salvage logging following fires can minimize boreal caribou habitat loss while maintaining forest quotas: An example of compensatory cumulative effects.

PubMed

Beguin, Julien; McIntire, Eliot J B; Raulier, Frédéric

2015-11-01

Protected area networks are the dominant conservation approach that is used worldwide for protecting biodiversity. Conservation planning in managed forests, however, presents challenges when endangered species use old-growth forests targeted by the forest industry for timber supply. In many ecosystems, this challenge is further complicated by the occurrence of natural disturbance events that disrupt forest attributes at multiple scales. Using spatially explicit landscape simulation experiments, we gather insights into how these large scale, multifaceted processes (fire risk, timber harvesting and the amount of protected area) influenced both the persistence of the threatened boreal caribou and the level of timber supply in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. Our result showed that failure to account explicitly and a priori for fire risk in the calculation of timber supply led to an overestimation of timber harvest volume, which in turn led to rates of cumulative disturbances that threatened both the long-term persistence of boreal caribou and the sustainability of the timber supply itself. Salvage logging, however, allowed some compensatory cumulative effects. It minimised the reductions of timber supply within a range of ∼10% while reducing the negative impact of cumulative disturbances caused by fire and logging on caribou. With the global increase of the human footprint on forest ecosystems, our approach and results provide useful tools and insights for managers to resolve what often appear as lose-lose situation between the persistence of species at risk and timber harvest in other forest ecosystems. These tools contribute to bridge the gap between conservation and forest management, two disciplines that remain too often disconnected in practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Repeated glacial lake outburst flood threatening the oldest Buddhist monastery in north-western Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropáček, J.; Neckel, N.; Tyrna, B.; Holzer, N.; Hovden, A.; Gourmelen, N.; Schneider, C.; Buchroithner, M.; Hochschild, V.

2015-10-01

Since 2004, Halji village, home of the oldest Buddhist Monastery in north-western Nepal, has suffered from recurrent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). A sudden englacial drainage of a supraglacial lake, located at a distance of 6.5 km from the village, was identified as the source of the flood. The topography of the lake basin was mapped by combining differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements with a structure-from-motion (SFM) approach using terrestrial photographs. From this model the maximum filling capacity of the lake has been estimated as 1.06 ×106 m3 with a maximum discharge of 77.8 m3 s-1, calculated using the empiric Clague-Mathews formula. A simulation of the flooded area employing a raster-based hydraulic model considering six scenarios of discharge volume and surface roughness did not result in a flooding of the village. However, both the village and the monastery are threatened by undercutting of the river bank formed by unconsolidated sediments, as it already happened in 2011. Further, the comparison of the GLOF occurrences with temperature and precipitation from the High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) data set for the period 2001-2011 suggests that the GLOF is climate-driven rather than generated by an extreme precipitation event. The calculation of geodetic mass balance and the analysis of satellite images showed a rapid thinning and retreat of Halji Glacier which will eventually lead to a decline of the lake basin. As the basin will persist for at least several years, effective mitigation measures should be considered. A further reinforcement of the gabion walls was suggested as an artificial lake drainage is not feasible given the difficult accessibility of the glacier.

An extension of the OpenModelica compiler for using Modelica models in a discrete event simulation

DOE PAGES

Nutaro, James

2014-11-03

In this article, a new back-end and run-time system is described for the OpenModelica compiler. This new back-end transforms a Modelica model into a module for the adevs discrete event simulation package, thereby extending adevs to encompass complex, hybrid dynamical systems. The new run-time system that has been built within the adevs simulation package supports models with state-events and time-events and that comprise differential-algebraic systems with high index. Finally, although the procedure for effecting this transformation is based on adevs and the Discrete Event System Specification, it can be adapted to any discrete event simulation package.

High-Performance Computing in Neuroscience for Data-Driven Discovery, Integration, and Dissemination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Aimone, James B.; Chun, Miyoung

A lack of coherent plans to analyze, manage, and understand data threatens the various opportunities offered by new neuro-technologies. High-performance computing will allow exploratory analysis of massive datasets stored in standardized formats, hosted in open repositories, and integrated with simulations.

High-Performance Computing in Neuroscience for Data-Driven Discovery, Integration, and Dissemination

DOE PAGES

Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Aimone, James B.; Chun, Miyoung; ...

2016-11-01

A lack of coherent plans to analyze, manage, and understand data threatens the various opportunities offered by new neuro-technologies. High-performance computing will allow exploratory analysis of massive datasets stored in standardized formats, hosted in open repositories, and integrated with simulations.

Role of Gymnastics in the Army School of Physical Training

PubMed Central

Griffiths, DE; Hargrove, R; Clasper, J

2006-01-01

INTRODUCTION As a result of a single spinal injury seen at Frimley Park Hospital, we reviewed the injuries recorded at the Army School of Physical Training since December 1996. PATIENTS AND METHODS This was a retrospective review of all acute accidents and injuries recorded in the Accident Book since its inception. RESULTS Over 75% of the injuries that were serious enough to result in soldiers having their training terminated were as a direct result of gymnastic events such as vaulting, trampolining and somersaults. These events were also responsible for most of the small number of career-threatening injuries. CONCLUSIONS This raises questions about the inclusion of gymnastic events in course training programmes, especially when considering its relevance to army training in general. PMID:17002850

Heuristic automation for decluttering tactical displays.

PubMed

St John, Mark; Smallman, Harvey S; Manes, Daniel I; Feher, Bela A; Morrison, Jeffrey G

2005-01-01

Tactical displays can quickly become cluttered with large numbers of symbols that can compromise effective monitoring. Here, we studied how heuristic automation can aid users by intelligently "decluttering" the display. In a realistic simulated naval air defense task, 27 experienced U.S. Navy users monitored a cluttered airspace and executed defensive responses against significant threats. An algorithm continuously evaluated aircraft for their levels of threat and decluttered the less threatening ones by dimming their symbols. Users appropriately distrusted and spot-checked the automation's assessments, and decluttering had very little effect on which aircraft were judged as significantly threatening. Nonetheless, decluttering improved the timeliness of responses to threatening aircraft by 25% as compared with a baseline display with no decluttering; it was especially beneficial for threats in more peripheral locations, and 25 of 27 participants preferred decluttering. Heuristic automation, when properly designed to guide users' attention by decluttering less important objects, may prove valuable in many cluttered monitoring situations, including air traffic management, crisis team management, and tactical situation awareness in general.

The devil is in the details: Comparisons of episodic simulations of positive and negative future events.

PubMed

Puig, Vannia A; Szpunar, Karl K

2017-08-01

Over the past decade, psychologists have devoted considerable attention to episodic simulation-the ability to imagine specific hypothetical events. Perhaps one of the most consistent patterns of data to emerge from this literature is that positive simulations of the future are rated as more detailed than negative simulations of the future, a pattern of results that is commonly interpreted as evidence for a positivity bias in future thinking. In the present article, we demonstrate across two experiments that negative future events are consistently simulated in more detail than positive future events when frequency of prior thinking is taken into account as a possible confounding variable and when level of detail associated with simulated events is assessed using an objective scoring criterion. Our findings are interpreted in the context of the mobilization-minimization hypothesis of event cognition that suggests people are especially likely to devote cognitive resources to processing negative scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

This person is saying bad things about you: The influence of physically and socially threatening context information on the processing of inherently neutral faces.

PubMed

Klein, Fabian; Iffland, Benjamin; Schindler, Sebastian; Wabnitz, Pascal; Neuner, Frank

2015-12-01

Recent studies have shown that the perceptual processing of human faces is affected by context information, such as previous experiences and information about the person represented by the face. The present study investigated the impact of verbally presented information about the person that varied with respect to affect (neutral, physically threatening, socially threatening) and reference (self-referred, other-referred) on the processing of faces with an inherently neutral expression. Stimuli were presented in a randomized presentation paradigm. Event-related potential (ERP) analysis demonstrated a modulation of the evoked potentials by reference at the EPN (early posterior negativity) and LPP (late positive potential) stage and an enhancing effect of affective valence on the LPP (700-1000 ms) with socially threatening context information leading to the most pronounced LPP amplitudes. We also found an interaction between reference and valence with self-related neutral context information leading to more pronounced LPP than other related neutral context information. Our results indicate an impact of self-reference on early, presumably automatic processing stages and also a strong impact of valence on later stages. Using a randomized presentation paradigm, this study confirms that context information affects the visual processing of faces, ruling out possible confounding factors such as facial configuration or conditional learning effects.

Values, animal symbolism, and human-animal relationships associated to two threatened felids in Mapuche and Chilean local narratives.

PubMed

Herrmann, Thora M; Schüttler, Elke; Benavides, Pelayo; Gálvez, Nicolas; Söhn, Lisa; Palomo, Nadja

2013-06-13

The Chilean temperate rainforest has been subjected to dramatic fragmentation for agriculture and forestry exploitation. Carnivore species are particularly affected by fragmentation and the resulting resource use conflicts with humans. This study aimed at understanding values and human-animal relationships with negatively perceived threatened carnivores through the disclosure of local stories and Mapuche traditional folktales. Our mixed approach comprised the qualitative analysis of 112 stories on the kodkod cat (Leopardus guigna) and the puma (Puma concolor) collected by students (9-14 years) from 28 schools in the Araucania region within their family contexts, 10 qualitative in-depth interviews with indigenous Mapuche people, 35 traditional Mapuche legends, and the significance of naming found in ethnographic collections. We revealed a quasi-extinction of traditional tales in the current knowledge pool about pumas and kodkods, local anecdotes, however, were present in significant numbers. Values associated to both felids were manifold, ranging from negativistic to positive values. While pumas played an important role in people's spirituality, negative mythological connotations persisted in kodkod stories. Four prominent relationships were derived: (1) Both felids represent threats to livestock, pumas even to life, (2) both felids are symbols for upcoming negative events, (3) pumas are spiritual creatures, and (4) kodkods are threatened by humans. Recommendations are provided for stimulating new ways of perceiving unpopular and threatened carnivores among those who live in vicinity to them.

"As Good as Your Word": Face-Threat Mitigation and the Use of Instructor Nonverbal Cues on Students' Perceptions of Digital Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark-Gordon, Cathlin V.; Bowman, Nicholas D.; Watts, Evan R.; Banks, Jaime; Knight, Jennifer M.

2018-01-01

Research has established that students often consider the delivery of instructor feedback to be a face-threatening event. To minimize the potential negative effects of feedback, verbal and nonverbal face-threat mitigation (FTM) strategies are utilized by instructors. Advances in digital feedback systems, like online documents and learning…

Ecosystem transformation by emerging infectious disease: loss of large tanoak from California forests

Treesearch

Richard C. Cobb; Joao A.N. Filipe; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A. Gilligan; David M. Rizzo

2012-01-01

1. Few pathogens are the sole or primary cause of species extinctions, but forest disease has caused spectacular declines in North American overstorey trees and restructured forest ecosystems at large spatial scales over the past 100 years. These events threaten biodiversity associated with impacted host trees and other resources valued by human societies even when...

Ecological investigations to select mitigation options to reduce vehicle-caused mortality of a threatened butterfly

Treesearch

Sara B. Zielin; Jalene Littlejohn; Catherine E. de Rivera; Winston P. Smith; Sandra L. Jacobson

2016-01-01

Whereas roads that bisect habitat are known to decrease population size through animal-vehicle collisions or interruption of key life history events, it is not always obvious how to reduce such impacts, especially for flying organisms. We needed a quick, cost-efficient and effective way to determine how best to decrease vehicle-caused mortality while maintaining...

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Group Leadership Instruction for Rehabilitation Counselors-in-Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Nykeisha; Wadsworth, John; Cory, James

2009-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is an anxiety syndrome that can develop after exposure to a traumatic event in which harm occurred or was threatened. PTSD is often treated with group therapy. Rehabilitation counselors need to be aware of the group treatments for PTSD because counselors may be leaders of group therapy, may work with consumers…

Ashes to ashes: Large Fraxinus germplasm collections and their fates

Treesearch

Kim C. Steiner; Paul. Lupo

2010-01-01

As the emerald ash borer (EAB) threatens the survival of our ash species, measures should be taken to preserve their genetic variability in the event that we discover a way to restore populations destroyed by the beetle. As it happens, large germplasm collections exist for our most important and widely distributed eastern species of the genus, white ash (...

Extinction risk of Ipomopsis sancti-spiritus in Holy Ghost Canyon with and without management intervention

Treesearch

Joyce Maschinski

2001-01-01

Small populations are threatened with deterministic and stochastic events that can drive the number of individuals below a critical threshold for survival. Long-term studies allow us to increase our understanding of processes required for their conservation. In the past 7 years, the population of the federally endangered Holy Ghost ipomopsis (Ipomopsis sancti-spiritus...

Prorelationship maintenance behaviors: the joint roles of attachment and commitment.

PubMed

Tran, Sisi; Simpson, Jeffry A

2009-10-01

The present research uses a behavioral observation methodology to examine emotional and behavioral reactions to threatening interpersonal situations in married couples. The research shows that although anxious attachment can hinder people's tendencies to react constructively to threatening events, greater relationship commitment may serve as a buffer against the negative effects associated with attachment insecurities, diminishing feelings of rejection, enhancing feelings of acceptance, and promoting more constructive accommodation behaviors. The research also reveals that wives' degree of relationship commitment has stronger effects on emotional outcomes for both partners than does husbands' degree of commitment. Moreover, husbands' and wives' emotional reactions affect their own accommodative behaviors as well as their spouses' behaviors. These dyadic findings are discussed in terms of attachment theory and interdependence theory. 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Discharge diagnoses in infants with apparent life-threatening event.

PubMed

Okada, Kazuko; Miyako, Motoko; Honma, Satoshi; Wakabayashi, Yasuko; Sugihara, Shigetaka; Osawa, Makiko

2003-10-01

There are various identifiable diseases or conditions that can be associated with an apparent life-threatening event (ALTE) in infancy. The present study was carried out to investigate the etiology of ALTE based on the discharge diagnoses. A protocol for the complete work-up used to examine the cause of ALTE was designed, and was carried out for 69 infants with ALTE. Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) was demonstrated in 38 cases, and chronic gastric volvulus (CGV) was diagnosed in 21 (associated with GERD in 13 infants). Four cases of pertussis and two cases each of sepsis, laryngomalacia, respiratory immaturity, and premature ventricular contractions were found. Others cases presented with pneumonia, meningitis, intussuception, food allergy, epilepsy, and adenoid vegetations. In 12 of the 69 infants with ALTE, no abnormalities were found in any of the studies performed, including two patients with breath-holding spells. In 17 cases, two or more possibly contributing findings were diagnosed. It is important to recognize that gastroesophageal impairments such as GERD or CGV could be responsible for many incidences of ALTE in infancy. The authors recommend a trial be established to investigate the causes of ALTE, including gastroesophageal evaluations in all infants with ALTE.

Acid Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Apparent Life-Threatening Events: Simultaneous pH-metry and Cardiorespiratory Monitoring.

PubMed

Macchini, Francesco; Morandi, Anna; Cognizzoli, Paola; Farris, Giorgio; Gentilino, Valerio; Zanini, Andrea; Leva, Ernesto

2017-02-01

To investigate the prevalence and the characteristics of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) in infants with apparent life threatening events (ALTE). Infants with at least one episode of ALTE in absence of predisposing factors were included. All infants underwent a cardiorespiratory recording with simultaneous 24-hour pH-monitoring. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the severity of GERD: A. Reflux Index (RI) <3%, B. RI = 3-7%, C. RI >7%. Monthly evaluations were performed and the anti-reflux therapy was maintained till normalization of monitoring and clinic. 41 infants were enrolled. GERD was found in 80% of patients (moderate in 54%, severe in 27%). A normalization of the cardiorespiratory tracks was recorded on average after 1 month for group A, 7 months for the group B and 9.5 months for group C. A significant difference was registered between group A and both group B and C (P < 0.0001), as well as between the group B and C (P < 0.05). GERD influences significantly the time of normalization of the cardiorespiratory monitoring in infants with ALTE. GERD diagnosis and treatment are mandatory in these patients. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Graph-based analysis of connectivity in spatially-explicit population models: HexSim and the Connectivity Analysis Toolkit

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods Planning for the recovery of threatened species is increasingly informed by spatially-explicit population models. However, using simulation model results to guide land management decisions can be difficult due to the volume and complexity of model...

Repetition-Related Reductions in Neural Activity during Emotional Simulations of Future Events.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; Jing, Helen G; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2015-01-01

Simulations of future experiences are often emotionally arousing, and the tendency to repeatedly simulate negative future outcomes has been identified as a predictor of the onset of symptoms of anxiety. Nonetheless, next to nothing is known about how the healthy human brain processes repeated simulations of emotional future events. In this study, we present a paradigm that can be used to study repeated simulations of the emotional future in a manner that overcomes phenomenological confounds between positive and negative events. The results show that pulvinar nucleus and orbitofrontal cortex respectively demonstrate selective reductions in neural activity in response to frequently as compared to infrequently repeated simulations of negative and positive future events. Implications for research on repeated simulations of the emotional future in both non-clinical and clinical populations are discussed.

An agent based simulation tool for scheduling emergency department physicians.

PubMed

Jones, Spencer S; Evans, R Scott

2008-11-06

Emergency department overcrowding is a problem that threatens the public health of communities and compromises the quality of care given to individual patients. The Institute of Medicine recommends that hospitals employ information technology and operations research methods to reduce overcrowding. This paper describes the development of an agent based simulation tool that has been designed to evaluate the impact of various physician staffing configurations on patient waiting times in the emergency department. We evaluate the feasibility of this tool at a single hospital emergency department.

Triggering factor evolution and dynamic process simulation of the Formosa Highway dip-slope failure, northern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mei-Jen; Chiang, Yi-Lin; Chang, Ho-Shyang; Chang, Kuo-Jen

2013-04-01

Taiwan, due to the high seismicity and high annual rainfall, numerous landslides triggered every year and severe impacts affect the island. Accordingly, if the new-built construction does not take into account this threaten, tremendous disasters will occur. On April 25th 2010, Formosa Freeway dip-slope failure caused four deaths, resulted from artificial slope cutting and rock-bot supporting system weakening. This research integrates high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and numerical simulation to evaluate the triggering mechanism and dynamic process of the landslide. First of all, to access the landslide geometry, the morphology of the event before and after landslide is constructed from high resolution DTM by means of aerial photos. The slid and the deposit volumes of the landslide are thus estimated accordingly. Only part of the surface of separation between slide block and slide slope is exposed. Based on the exposed planar strata/sliding surface, situated on the upper part of the slope, by means of extrapolating part of the plane to mimic the entire slide surface. From DTMs, the slide block is approximately 0.15 million cubic meters. The extrapolated planar surface serves as sliding surface for the numerical models. For numerical model preparation, the particle clusters produced by isotropic stress and the porosity are take into account. To ensure the production range should cover the entire slid mass from the source area, the particle clusters represent the slid block is been rotated, scaled and translated to the source area. Then, part of the particles are been eliminated if it is situated outside the upper and lower surface from the DTM before and after landslide. According to the geological map, the model of the particles to mimic the slide block can be divided into two parts: 1) the underneath interbedded sandstone and shale which may soften by water 2) the supposed upper layer composed of sandstone. Furthermore, set up a layer of particles to simulate ground anchor. The advantages of DTM collocate PFC3d are that real terrain can be represented on the model, and can be simulated the complete landslide process dynamically. Comparing with continuum mechanic analysis that only provides state of instability, but by using discrete element method it can provide the dynamical process of sliding include trajectory, velocity change, sliding distance and also accumulation patterns after landslide and know the affected areas from the disaster event. Results shows: 1) the peak and the residual frictional angle of the sliding surface should be small than 14 and 4 degree, respectively, in the condition of 30% effective resistance of rock-bolt remains. 2)The maximum sliding speed could be as high as 15.34 m/s, caused thus hazard event.

A Simulation of Readiness-Based Sparing Policies

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

variant of a greedy heuristic algorithm to set stock levels and estimate overall WS availability. Our discrete event simulation is then used to test the...available in the optimization tools. 14. SUBJECT TERMS readiness-based sparing, discrete event simulation, optimization, multi-indenture...variant of a greedy heuristic algorithm to set stock levels and estimate overall WS availability. Our discrete event simulation is then used to test the

Hydroxyurea (hydroxycarbamide) for sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Nevitt, Sarah J; Jones, Ashley P; Howard, Jo

2017-04-20

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is one of the most common inherited diseases worldwide. It is associated with lifelong morbidity and a reduced life expectancy. Hydroxyurea (hydroxycarbamide), an oral chemotherapeutic drug, ameliorates some of the clinical problems of SCD, in particular that of pain, by raising fetal haemoglobin. This is an update of a previously published Cochrane Review. To assess the effects of hydroxyurea therapy in people with SCD (all genotypes), of any age, regardless of setting. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Register, comprising of references identified from comprehensive electronic database searches and handsearches of relevant journals and abstract books of conference proceedings. We also searched online trial registries.Date of the most recent search: 16 January 2017. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials, of one month or longer, comparing hydroxyurea with placebo, standard therapy or other interventions for people with SCD. Authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, carried out data extraction and assessed the risk of bias. Seventeen studies were identified in the searches; eight randomised controlled trials were included, recruiting 899 adults and children with SCD (haemoglobin SS (HbSS), haemoglobin SC (HbSC) or haemoglobin Sβºthalassaemia (HbSβºthal) genotypes). Studies lasted from six to 30 months.Four studies (577 adults and children with HbSS or HbSβºthal) compared hydroxyurea to placebo; three recruited individuals with only severe disease and one recruited individuals with all disease severities. There were statistically significant improvements in terms of pain alteration (using measures such as pain crisis frequency, duration, intensity, hospital admissions and opoid use), measures of fetal haemoglobin and neutrophil counts and fewer occurrences of acute chest syndrome and blood transfusions in the hydroxyurea groups. There were no consistent statistically significant differences in terms of quality of life and adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events). Seven deaths occurred during the studies, but the rates by treatment group were not statistically significantly different.Two studies (254 children with HbSS or HbSβºthal also with risk of primary or secondary stroke) compared hydroxyurea and phlebotomy to transfusion and chelation; there were statistically significant improvements in terms of measures of fetal haemoglobin and neutrophil counts, but more occurrences of acute chest syndrome and infections in the hydroxyurea and phlebotomy group. There were no consistent statistically significant differences in terms of pain alteration and adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events). Two deaths occurred during the studies (one in a the hydroxyurea treatment arm and one in the control arm), but the rates by treatment group were not statistically significantly different. In the primary prevention study, no strokes occurred in either treatment group but in the secondary prevention study, seven strokes occurred in the hydroxyurea and phlebotomy group (none in the transfusion and chelation group) and the study was terminated early.The quality of the evidence for the above two comparisons was judged as moderate to low as the studies contributing to these comparisons were mostly large and well designed (and at low risk of bias); however evidence was limited and imprecise for some outcomes such as quality of life, deaths during the studies and adverse events and results are applicable only to individuals with HbSS and HbSβºthal genotypes.Of the remaining two studies, one (22 children with HbSS or HbSβºthal also at risk of stoke) compared hydroxyurea to observation; there were statistically significant improvements in terms of measures of fetal haemoglobin and neutrophil counts but no statistically significant differences in terms of adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events).The final study (44 adults and children with HbSC) compared treatment regimens with and without hydroxyurea - there was statistically significant improvement in terms of measures of fetal haemoglobin, but no statistically significant differences in terms of adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events). No participants died in either of these studies and other outcomes relevant to the review were not reported.The quality of the evidence for the above two comparisons was judged to be very low due to the limited number of participants, the lack of statistical power (as both studies were terminated early with approximately only 20% of their target sample size recruited) and the lack of applicability to all age groups and genotypes. There is evidence to suggest that hydroxyurea is effective in decreasing the frequency of pain episodes and other acute complications in adults and children with sickle cell anaemia of HbSS or HbSβºthal genotypes and in preventing life-threatening neurological events in those with sickle cell anaemia at risk of primary stroke by maintaining transcranial doppler velocities. However, there is still insufficient evidence on the long-term benefits of hydroxyurea, particularly in preventing chronic complications of SCD, recommending a standard dose or dose escalation to maximum tolerated dose. There is also insufficient evidence about the long-term risks of hydroxyurea, including its effects on fertility and reproduction. Evidence is also limited on the effects of hydroxyurea on individuals with HbSC genotype. Future studies should be designed to address such uncertainties.

Predictability of the atmospheric conditions leading to extreme weather events in the Western Mediterranean Region in comparison with the seasonal mean conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, Samiro; Kalthoff, Norbert

2013-04-01

Among all severe convective weather situations, fall season heavy rainfall represents the most threatening phenomenon in the western Mediterranean region. Devastating flash floods occur every year somewhere in eastern Spain, southern France, Italy, or North Africa, being responsible for a great proportion of the fatalities, property losses, and destruction of infrastructure caused by natural hazards. Investigations in the area have shown that most of the heavy rainfall events in this region can be attributed to mesoscale convective systems. The main goal of this investigation is to understand and identify the atmospheric conditions that favor the initiation and development of such systems. Insight of the involved processes and conditions will improve their predictability and help preventing some of the fatal consequences related with the occurrence of these weather phenomena. The HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment) provides a unique framework to investigate this issue. Making use of high-resolution seasonal simulations with the COSMO-CLM model the mean atmospheric conditions of the fall season, September, October and November, are investigated in different western Mediterranean regions such as eastern Spain, Southern France, northern Africa and Italy. The precipitation distribution, its daily cycle, and probability distribution function are evaluated to ascertain the similarities and differences between the regions of interest, as well as the spatial distribution of extreme events. Additionally, the regional differences of the boundary layer and mid-tropospheric conditions, atmospheric stability and inhibition, and low-level triggering are presented. Selected high impact weather HyMeX episodes' are analyzed with special focus on the atmospheric pre-conditions leading to the extreme weather situations. These pre-conditions are then compared to the mean seasonal conditions to identify and point out possible anomalies in the atmospheric conditions which could favor the initiation and intensification of extreme precipitation weather events.

Infantile Apparent Life-Threatening Events, an Educational Review

PubMed Central

Aminiahidashti, Hamed

2015-01-01

Many physicians have received a frantic call from anxious parents stating that their child had stopped breathing, become limp, or turned blue but then had recovered quickly. An apparent life-threatening event (ALTE) is defined as “an episode that is frightening to the observer, and is characterized by some combination of apnea, color change, marked change in muscle tone, choking, gagging, or coughing”. The incidence of ALTE is reported to be 0.05% to 6%. The knowledge about the most common causes and factors associated with higher risk of ALTE could be resulted in a more purposeful approach, improving the decision making process, and benefiting both children and parents. The aim of this review article was to report the epidemiology, etiology, evaluation, management, and disposition of ALTE. Infants with an ALTE might present no signs of acute illness and are commonly managed in the emergency settings that often require significant medical attention; hence, the emergency medicine personnel should be aware of the its clinical importance. There is no specific treatment for ALTE; therefore, the clinical evaluations should be focused on the detection of the underlying causes, which will define the outcomes and prognosis. ALTE is a confusing entity, representing a constellation of descriptive symptoms and signs; in other words, it is not a diagnosis. There are multiple possible etiologies and difficulties in evaluating and managing infants with these events, which are challenges to primary care physicians, emergency medicine specialists, and subspecialty pediatricians. The evaluation of these events in infants includes a detailed history, appropriate physical examination, diagnostic tests guided by obtained clues from the history and physical examination, and observation in the emergency department. PMID:26512363

Magnetic Resonance Imaging as a Predictor of Survival Free of Life-Threatening Arrhythmias and Transplantation in Cardiac Sarcoidosis.

PubMed

Ekström, Kaj; Lehtonen, Jukka; Hänninen, Helena; Kandolin, Riina; Kivistö, Sari; Kupari, Markku

2016-05-02

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging has a key role in today's diagnosis of cardiac sarcoidosis. We set out to investigate whether cardiac magnetic resonance imaging also helps predict outcome in cardiac sarcoidosis. Our work involved 59 patients with cardiac sarcoidosis (38 female, mean age 46±10 years) seen at our hospital since February 2004 and followed up after contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The extent of myocardial late gadolinium enhancement (measured as percentage of left ventricular mass), the volumes and ejection fractions of the left and right ventricles, and the thickness of the basal interventricular septum were determined and analyzed for prognostic significance. By April 2015, 23 patients had reached the study's end point, consisting of a composite of cardiac death (n=3), cardiac transplantation (n=1), and occurrence of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (n=19; ventricular fibrillation in 5 and sustained ventricular tachycardia in 14 patients). In univariate analysis, myocardial extent of late gadolinium enhancement predicted event-free survival, as did scar-like thinning (<4 mm) of the basal interventricular septum and the ejection fraction of the right ventricle (P<0.05 for all). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, extent of late gadolinium enhancement was the only independent predictor of outcome events on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, with a hazard ratio of 2.22 per tertile (95% CI 1.07-4.59). An extent of late gadolinium enhancement >22% (third tertile) had positive and negative predictive values for serious cardiac events of 75% and 76%, respectively. Findings on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and the extent of myocardial late gadolinium enhancement in particular help predict serious cardiac events in cardiac sarcoidosis. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Assessment of upper-ocean variability and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in extended-range air-ocean coupled mesoscale simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Xiaodong; Reynolds, Carolyn A.; Doyle, James D.; May, Paul; O'Neill, Larry

2017-06-01

Atmosphere-ocean interaction, particular the ocean response to strong atmospheric forcing, is a fundamental component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this paper, we examine how model errors in previous Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events can affect the simulation of subsequent MJO events due to increased errors that develop in the upper-ocean before the MJO initiation stage. Two fully coupled numerical simulations with 45-km and 27-km horizontal resolutions were integrated for a two-month period from November to December 2011 using the Navy's limited area Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®). There are three MJO events that occurred subsequently in early November, mid-November, and mid-December during the simulations. The 45-km simulation shows an excessive warming of the SSTs during the suppressed phase that occurs before the initiation of the second MJO event due to erroneously strong surface net heat fluxes. The simulated second MJO event stalls over the Maritime Continent which prevents the recovery of the deep mixed layer and associated barrier layer. Cross-wavelet analysis of solar radiation and SSTs reveals that the diurnal warming is absent during the second suppressed phase after the second MJO event. The mixed layer heat budget indicates that the cooling is primarily caused by horizontal advection associated with the stalling of the second MJO event and the cool SSTs fail to initiate the third MJO event. When the horizontal resolution is increased to 27-km, three MJOs are simulated and compare well with observations on multi-month timescales. The higher-resolution simulation of the second MJO event and more-realistic upper-ocean response promote the onset of the third MJO event. Simulations performed with analyzed SSTs indicate that the stalling of the second MJO in the 45-km run is a robust feature, regardless of ocean forcing, while the diurnal cycle analysis indicates that both 45-km and 27-km ocean resolutions respond realistically when provided with realistic atmospheric forcing. Thus, the problem in the 45-km simulation appears to originate in the atmosphere. Additional simulations show that while the details of the simulations are sensitive to small changes in the initial integration time, the large differences between the 45-km and 27-km runs during the suppressed phase in early December are robust.

Severe Autoimmune Adverse Events Post Herpes Zoster Vaccine: A Case-Control Study of Adverse Events in a National Database.

PubMed

Lai, Yi Chun; Yew, Yik Weng

2015-07-01

Zoster vaccine is recommended to reduce the incidence of herpes zoster and its complication of postherpetic neuralgia in older adults. However, there have been reports of autoimmune side effects post vaccination. We therefore aim to investigate the possible relationship of severe autoimmune adverse events (arthritis, vasculitis, systemic lupus erythematosus, thrombocytopenia, alopecia, Guillain-Barre syndrome, optic neuritis and multiple sclerosis) post zoster vaccination with a matched case-control study of reported events in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). Our study showed no significantly increased risks of severe autoimmune adverse events, except arthritis and alopecia, after vaccination. Compared to the unexposed, patients with zoster vaccination had 2.2 and 2.7 times the odds of developing arthritis and alopecia, respectively (P<0.001 and P=0.015, respectively). However, almost none of these events was life threatening. Zoster vaccine is, therefore, relatively safe and unlikely to exacerbate or induce autoimmune diseases. Given its benefits and safety but low coverage, dermatologists and primary care physicians should encourage zoster vaccine use in elderly patients, including selected patients with autoimmune diseases.

Brazilian cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the List of Threatening Events Questionnaire (LTE-Q).

PubMed

Abreu, Patrícia B de; Cogo-Moreira, Hugo; Pose, Regina A; Laranjeira, Ronaldo; Caetano, Raul; Gaya, Carolina M; Madruga, Clarice S

2017-01-01

To perform a construct validation of the List of Threatening Events Questionnaire (LTE-Q), as well as convergence validation by identifying its association with drug use in a sample of the Brazilian population. This is a secondary analysis of the Second Brazilian National Alcohol and Drugs Survey (II BNADS), which used a cross-cultural adaptation of the LTE-Q in a probabilistic sample of 4,607 participants aged 14 years and older. Latent class analysis was used to validate the latent trait adversity (which considered the number of events from the list of 12 item in the LTE experienced by the respondent in the previous year) and logistic regression was performed to find its association with binge drinking and cocaine use. The confirmatory factor analysis returned a chi-square of 108.341, weighted root mean square residual (WRMR) of 1.240, confirmatory fit indices (CFI) of 0.970, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) of 0.962, and root mean square error approximation (RMSEA) score of 1.000. LTE-Q convergence validation showed that the adversity latent trait increased the chances of binge drinking by 1.31 time and doubled the chances of previous year cocaine use (adjusted by sociodemographic variables). The use of the LTE-Q in Brazil should be encouraged in different research fields, including large epidemiological surveys, as it is also appropriate when time and budget are limited. The LTE-Q can be a useful tool in the development of targeted and more efficient prevention strategies.

A threat to a virtual hand elicits motor cortex activation.

PubMed

González-Franco, Mar; Peck, Tabitha C; Rodríguez-Fornells, Antoni; Slater, Mel

2014-03-01

We report an experiment where participants observed an attack on their virtual body as experienced in an immersive virtual reality (IVR) system. Participants sat by a table with their right hand resting upon it. In IVR, they saw a virtual table that was registered with the real one, and they had a virtual body that substituted their real body seen from a first person perspective. The virtual right hand was collocated with their real right hand. Event-related brain potentials were recorded in two conditions, one where the participant's virtual hand was attacked with a knife and a control condition where the knife only struck the virtual table. Significantly greater P450 potentials were obtained in the attack condition confirming our expectations that participants had a strong illusion of the virtual hand being their own, which was also strongly supported by questionnaire responses. Higher levels of subjective virtual hand ownership correlated with larger P450 amplitudes. Mu-rhythm event-related desynchronization in the motor cortex and readiness potential (C3-C4) negativity were clearly observed when the virtual hand was threatened-as would be expected, if the real hand was threatened and the participant tried to avoid harm. Our results support the idea that event-related potentials may provide a promising non-subjective measure of virtual embodiment. They also support previous experiments on pain observation and are placed into context of similar experiments and studies of body perception and body ownership within cognitive neuroscience.

Gender and Age Differences in Trauma and PTSD Among Dutch Treatment-Seeking Police Officers.

PubMed

van der Meer, Christianne A I; Bakker, Anne; Smit, Annika S; van Buschbach, Susanne; den Dekker, Melissa; Westerveld, Gré J; Hutter, Renée C; Gersons, Berthold P R; Olff, Miranda

2017-02-01

Little is known about how age and gender are associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and traumatic experiences in treatment-seeking police offers. In this study, we examined 967 diagnostic files of police officers seeking treatment for PTSD. Six hundred twelve (63%) of the referred police officers were diagnosed with PTSD (n = 560) or partial PTSD (n = 52). Police officers reported on average 19.5 different types of traumatic events (range 1-43). Those who experienced a greater variety of traumatic events suffered from more PTSD symptoms. Also, women reported more often direct life-threatening or private events as their index trauma than men and suffered from more PTSD symptoms than their male colleagues. Results indicate that police officers experience a considerable number of different traumatic events, which is significantly associated with PTSD symptoms. The results highlight the importance of early detection of PTSD symptoms in the police force.

A Framework of Simple Event Detection in Surveillance Video

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Yafei; Lu, Jianjiang; Tian, Yulong; Wang, Jiabao

Video surveillance is playing more and more important role in people's social life. Real-time alerting of threaten events and searching interesting content in stored large scale video footage needs human operator to pay full attention on monitor for long time. The labor intensive mode has limit the effectiveness and efficiency of the system. A framework of simple event detection is presented advance the automation of video surveillance. An improved inner key point matching approach is used to compensate motion of background in real-time; frame difference are used to detect foreground; HOG based classifiers are used to classify foreground object into people and car; mean-shift is used to tracking the recognized objects. Events are detected based on predefined rules. The maturity of the algorithms guarantee the robustness of the framework, and the improved approach and the easily checked rules enable the framework to work in real-time. Future works to be done are also discussed.

Adverse events in IBD: to stop or continue immune suppressant and biologic treatment.

PubMed

McLean, Leon P; Cross, Raymond K

2014-03-01

Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis affect an increasing number of patients. A variety of medical options exist for the treatment of these diseases including immune suppressants and biologic therapies. Unfortunately, these agents are associated with adverse events ranging from mild nuisance symptoms to potentially life-threatening complications including infections and malignancies. This review discusses adverse events associated with azathioprine, mercaptopurine, and methotrexate as well as anti-TNF-α and anti-integrin antibodies. In addition, adverse events associated with combination therapy are discussed as are clinical scenarios in which it may be reasonable to discontinue or de-escalate drug therapy. It is the responsibility of the treating gastroenterologist to effectively communicate the benefits and risks of therapy with patients; this review offers strategies that may assist providers in communicating risk with patients in addition to offering our perspective on whether modification or cessation of therapy can be considered.

Adverse events in IBD: to stop or continue immune suppressant and biologic treatment

PubMed Central

McLean, Leon P; Cross, Raymond K

2014-01-01

Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis affect an increasing number of patients. A variety of medical options exist for the treatment of these diseases including immune suppressants and biologic therapies. Unfortunately, these agents are associated with adverse events ranging from mild nuisance symptoms to potentially life-threatening complications including infections and malignancies. This review discusses adverse events associated with azathioprine, mercaptopurine, and methotrexate as well as anti-TNF-α and anti-integrin antibodies. In addition, adverse events associated with combination therapy are discussed as are clinical scenarios in which it may be reasonable to discontinue or de-escalate drug therapy. It is the responsibility of the treating gastroenterologist to effectively communicate the benefits and risks of therapy with patients; this review offers strategies that may assist providers in communicating risk with patients in addition to offering our perspective on whether modification or cessation of therapy can be considered. PMID:24490595

Synchronization of autonomous objects in discrete event simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, Ralph V.

1990-01-01

Autonomous objects in event-driven discrete event simulation offer the potential to combine the freedom of unrestricted movement and positional accuracy through Euclidean space of time-driven models with the computational efficiency of event-driven simulation. The principal challenge to autonomous object implementation is object synchronization. The concept of a spatial blackboard is offered as a potential methodology for synchronization. The issues facing implementation of a spatial blackboard are outlined and discussed.

Simulations and Characteristics of Large Solar Events Propagating Throughout the Heliosphere and Beyond (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, D. S.; Sun, W.; Detman, T. R.; Dryer, Ph D., M.; Intriligator, J.; Deehr, C. S.; Webber, W. R.; Gloeckler, G.; Miller, W. D.

2015-12-01

Large solar events can have severe adverse global impacts at Earth. These solar events also can propagate throughout the heliopshere and into the interstellar medium. We focus on the July 2012 and Halloween 2003 solar events. We simulate these events starting from the vicinity of the Sun at 2.5 Rs. We compare our three dimensional (3D) time-dependent simulations to available spacecraft (s/c) observations at 1 AU and beyond. Based on the comparisons of the predictions from our simulations with in-situ measurements we find that the effects of these large solar events can be observed in the outer heliosphere, the heliosheath, and even into the interstellar medium. We use two simulation models. The HAFSS (HAF Source Surface) model is a kinematic model. HHMS-PI (Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup protons) is a numerical magnetohydrodynamic solar wind (SW) simulation model. Both HHMS-PI and HAFSS are ideally suited for these analyses since starting at 2.5 Rs from the Sun they model the slowly evolving background SW and the impulsive, time-dependent events associated with solar activity. Our models naturally reproduce dynamic 3D spatially asymmetric effects observed throughout the heliosphere. Pre-existing SW background conditions have a strong influence on the propagation of shock waves from solar events. Time-dependence is a crucial aspect of interpreting s/c data. We show comparisons of our simulation results with STEREO A, ACE, Ulysses, and Voyager s/c observations.

Variability in oceanographic barriers to coral larval dispersal: Do currents shape biodiversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Kleypas, J.; Castruccio, F.; Curchitser, E. N.; Pinsky, M. L.; Jönsson, B.; Watson, J. R.

2018-07-01

The global center of marine biodiversity is located in the western tropical Pacific in a region known as the "Coral Triangle" (CT). This region is also considered the most threatened of all coral reef regions, because multiple impacts, including rising temperatures and coral bleaching, have already caused high mortality of reef corals over large portions of the CT. Larval dispersal and recruitment play a critical role in reef recovery after such disturbances, but our understanding of reproductive connectivity between reefs is limited by a paucity of observations. Oceanographic modeling can provide an economical and efficient way to augment our understanding of reef connectivity, particularly over an area as large as the CT, where marine ecosystem management has become a priority. This work combines daily averaged surface current velocity and direction from a Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the CT region (CT-ROMS) with a Lagrangian particle tracking tool (TRACMASS) to investigate the probability of larval transport between reefs for a typical broadcasting coral. A 47-year historical simulation (1960-2006) was used to analyze the potential connectivity, the physical drivers of larval transport, and its variability following bi-annual spawning events in April and September. Potential connectivity between reefs was highly variable from year to year, emphasizing the need for long simulations. The results suggest that although reefs in this region are highly self-seeded, comparatively rare long-distance dispersal events may play a vital role in shaping regional patterns of reef biodiversity and recovery following disturbance. The spatial pattern of coral "subpopulations," which are based on the potential connectivity between reefs, agrees with observed regional-scale patterns of biodiversity, suggesting that the physical barriers to larval dispersal are a first-order driver of coral biodiversity in the CT region. These physical barriers persist through the 21st Century when the model is forced with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) RCP8.5 climate scenario, despite some regional changes in connectivity between reefs.

Mars Exploration Rover Terminal Descent Mission Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raiszadeh, Behzad; Queen, Eric M.

2004-01-01

Because of NASA's added reliance on simulation for successful interplanetary missions, the MER mission has developed a detailed EDL trajectory modeling and simulation. This paper summarizes how the MER EDL sequence of events are modeled, verification of the methods used, and the inputs. This simulation is built upon a multibody parachute trajectory simulation tool that has been developed in POST I1 that accurately simulates the trajectory of multiple vehicles in flight with interacting forces. In this model the parachute and the suspended bodies are treated as 6 Degree-of-Freedom (6 DOF) bodies. The terminal descent phase of the mission consists of several Entry, Descent, Landing (EDL) events, such as parachute deployment, heatshield separation, deployment of the lander from the backshell, deployment of the airbags, RAD firings, TIRS firings, etc. For an accurate, reliable simulation these events need to be modeled seamlessly and robustly so that the simulations will remain numerically stable during Monte-Carlo simulations. This paper also summarizes how the events have been modeled, the numerical issues, and modeling challenges.

An Intervention to Increase High School Students' Compliance with Carrying Auto-Injectable Epinephrine: A MASNRN Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spina, Jennifer L.; McIntyre, C. Lynne; Pulcini, Joyce A.

2012-01-01

Adolescents with life-threatening allergies are at a greater risk for a fatal anaphylactic event since only about half of them carry unexpired epinephrine available for emergency use. The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of school nurse interventions that consisted of either routine or periodic checks during the school year for the…

The role of magical thinking in forecasting the future.

PubMed

Stavrova, Olga; Meckel, Andrea

2017-02-01

This article explores the role of magical thinking in the subjective probabilities of future chance events. In five experiments, we show that individuals tend to predict a more lucky future (reflected in probability judgements of lucky and unfortunate chance events) for someone who happened to purchase a product associated with a highly moral person than for someone who unknowingly purchased a product associated with a highly immoral person. In the former case, positive events were considered more likely than negative events, whereas in the latter case, the difference in the likelihood judgement of positive and negative events disappeared or even reversed. Our results indicate that this effect is unlikely to be driven by participants' immanent justice beliefs, the availability heuristic, or experimenter demand. Finally, we show that individuals rely more heavily on magical thinking when their need for control is threatened, thus suggesting that lack of control represents a factor in driving magical thinking in making predictions about the future. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Computer simulation of earthquakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, S. C.

1976-01-01

Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

75 FR 61871 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Listing Determinations for Three Distinct...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-06

... single facility in one city (ASSRT, 2007). There are currently no fish consumption advisories in effect... substantial deleterious effects on aquatic life. Effects from these elements and compounds on fish include... quality as a result of eutrophication. In a simulation of the effects of water temperature on available...

Evaluation of the RWEQ and SWEEP in simulating soil and PM10 loss from a portable wind tunnel

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wind erosion threatens sustainable agriculture and environmental quality in the Columbia Plateau region of the US Pacific Northwest. Wind erosion models such as Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) and the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) have been developed as tools for identifying practices t...

Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs and benefits of mitigation actions have to be evaluated and compared, weighting them with the probability of occurrence of a specific threatening volcanic event. An action should be taken when the benefit of that action outweighs the costs. It is worth remarking that this strategy does not guarantee to recommend a decision that we would have taken with the benefit of hindsight. However, this strategy will be successful over the long-tem. Furthermore, it has the overwhelming advantage of providing a quantitative decision rule that is set before any emergency, and thus it will be justifiable at any stage of the process. In our present application, we are trying to set up a cost-benefit scheme for the call of an evacuation to protect people in the Auckland Volcanic Field against base surge invasion. Considering the heterogeneity of the urban environment and the size of the region at risk, we propose a cost-benefit scheme that is space dependent, to take into account higher costs when an eruption threatens sensible sites for the city and/or the nation, such as the international airport or the harbour. Finally, we compare our findings with the present Contingency Plan for Auckland.

Analyzing wildfire exposure on Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A.; Alcasena, Fermin; Bacciu, Valentina; Duce, Pierpaolo; Munoz Lozano, Olga; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

We used simulation modeling based on the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) to analyze wildfire exposure of key ecological, social and economic features on Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia is the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, and in the last fifty years experienced large and dramatic wildfires, which caused losses and threatened urban interfaces, forests and natural areas, and agricultural productions. Historical fires and environmental data for the period 1995-2009 were used as input to estimate fine scale burn probability, conditional flame length, and potential fire size in the study area. With this purpose, we simulated 100,000 wildfire events within the study area, randomly drawing from the observed frequency distribution of burn periods and wind directions for each fire. Estimates of burn probability, excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0 to 1.92x10-3, with a mean value of 6.48x10-5. Overall, the outputs provided a quantitative assessment of wildfire exposure at the landscape scale and captured landscape properties of wildfire exposure. We then examined how the exposure profiles varied among and within selected features and assets located on the island. Spatial variation in modeled outputs resulted in a strong effect of fuel models, coupled with slope and weather. In particular, the combined effect of Mediterranean maquis, woodland areas and complex topography on flame length was relevant, mainly in north-east Sardinia, whereas areas with herbaceous fuels and flat areas were in general characterized by lower fire intensity but higher burn probability. The simulation modeling proposed in this work provides a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities, and represents one of the first applications of burn probability modeling to capture fire risk and exposure profiles in the Mediterranean basin.

Simulation studies on the differences between spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, J.; Vere-Jones, D.; Ogata, Y.; Christophersen, A.; Savage, M. K.; Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

In this study we investigate the foreshock probabilities calculated from earthquake catalogs from Japan, Southern California and New Zealand. Unlike conventional studies on foreshocks, we use a probability-based declustering method to separate each catalog into stochastic versions of family trees, such that each event is classified as either having been triggered by a preceding event, or being a spontaneous event. The probabilities are determined from parameters that provide the best fit of the real catalogue using a space- time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The model assumes that background and triggered earthquakes have the same magnitude dependent triggering capability. A foreshock here is defined as a spontaneous event that has one or more larger descendants, and a triggered foreshock is a triggered event that has one or more larger descendants. The proportion of foreshocks in spontaneous events of each catalog is found to be lower than the proportion of triggered foreshocks in triggered events. One possibility is that this is due to different triggering productivity in spontaneous versus triggered events, i.e., a triggered event triggers more children than a spontaneous events of the same magnitude. To understand what causes the above differences between spontaneous and triggered events, we apply the same procedures to several synthetic catalogs simulated by using different models. The first simulation is done by using the ETAS model with parameters and spontaneous rate fitted from the JMA catalog. The second synthetic catalog is simulated by using an adjusted ETAS model that takes into account the triggering effect from events lower than the magnitude. That is, we simulated the catalog with a low magnitude threshold with the original ETAS model, and then we remove the events smaller than a higher magnitude threshold. The third model for simulation assumes that different triggering behaviors exist between spontaneous event and triggered events. We repeat the fitting and reconstruction procedures to all those simulated catalogs. The reconstruction results for the first synthetic catalog do not show the difference between spontaneous events and triggered event or the differences in foreshock probabilities. On the other hand, results from the synthetic catalogs simulated with the second and the third models clearly reconstruct such differences. In summary our results implies that one of the causes of such differences may be neglecting the triggering effort from events smaller than the cut-off magnitude or magnitude errors. For the objective of forecasting seismicity, we can use a clustering model in which spontaneous events trigger child events in a different way from triggered events to avoid over-predicting earthquake risks with foreshocks. To understand the physical implication of this study, we need further careful studies to compare the real seismicity and the adjusted ETAS model, which takes the triggering effect from events below the cut-off magnitude into account.

Linear Optics Simulation of Quantum Non-Markovian Dynamics

PubMed Central

Chiuri, Andrea; Greganti, Chiara; Mazzola, Laura; Paternostro, Mauro; Mataloni, Paolo

2012-01-01

The simulation of open quantum dynamics has recently allowed the direct investigation of the features of system-environment interaction and of their consequences on the evolution of a quantum system. Such interaction threatens the quantum properties of the system, spoiling them and causing the phenomenon of decoherence. Sometimes however a coherent exchange of information takes place between system and environment, memory effects arise and the dynamics of the system becomes non-Markovian. Here we report the experimental realisation of a non-Markovian process where system and environment are coupled through a simulated transverse Ising model. By engineering the evolution in a photonic quantum simulator, we demonstrate the role played by system-environment correlations in the emergence of memory effects. PMID:23236588

Nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem from extreme atmospheric N deposition events.

PubMed

Choudhary, Sonal; Blaud, Aimeric; Osborn, A Mark; Press, Malcolm C; Phoenix, Gareth K

2016-06-01

Arctic ecosystems are threatened by pollution from recently detected extreme atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition events in which up to 90% of the annual N deposition can occur in just a few days. We undertook the first assessment of the fate of N from extreme deposition in High Arctic tundra and are presenting the results from the whole ecosystem (15)N labelling experiment. In 2010, we simulated N depositions at rates of 0, 0.04, 0.4 and 1.2 g Nm(-2)yr(-1), applied as (15)NH4(15)NO3 in Svalbard (79(°)N), during the summer. Separate applications of (15)NO3(-) and (15)NH4(+) were also made to determine the importance of N form in their retention. More than 95% of the total (15)N applied was recovered after one growing season (~90% after two), demonstrating a considerable capacity of Arctic tundra to retain N from these deposition events. Important sinks for the deposited N, regardless of its application rate or form, were non-vascular plants>vascular plants>organic soil>litter>mineral soil, suggesting that non-vascular plants could be the primary component of this ecosystem to undergo measurable changes due to N enrichment from extreme deposition events. Substantial retention of N by soil microbial biomass (70% and 39% of (15)N in organic and mineral horizon, respectively) during the initial partitioning demonstrated their capacity to act as effective buffers for N leaching. Between the two N forms, vascular plants (Salix polaris) in particular showed difference in their N recovery, incorporating four times greater (15)NO3(-) than (15)NH4(+), suggesting deposition rich in nitrate will impact them more. Overall, these findings show that despite the deposition rates being extreme in statistical terms, biologically they do not exceed the capacity of tundra to sequester pollutant N during the growing season. Therefore, current and future extreme events may represent a major source of eutrophication. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Some enuretic derivatives in an adult analysis.

PubMed

Browne, N D

1986-01-01

The paper traces the effects of early overstimulation--leading as it does to precocious erotization and rage. Together, these combine in a manic defence by denying deadness in inner psychic reality. The rage being such as the ego cannot cope with, reappears in the recurrent fugitive dream. The paper shows how the patient is most threatened in his dreams where he repeatedly protects himself from death by castration; where death means death of inner psychic reality. In life his rage is never overt but is principally mocking, putting the other in the open while he remains protected from risks. In the same way just as the patient is most threatened in sleep, so he is likewise threatened by the change of mind at the prospect of sexual arousal. The adoption of a fetish affords protection, as it serves to negate total psychic inner deadness. The fetish itself is a sort of screen against loss and grief where these affects have been previously sexualized. Likewise the earlier adoption of the phobia of spilling liquids brought the enuretic event under ego-control by making the risks more conscious and therefore more available to act as a screen against loss and grief.

Spatial congruence in language and species richness but not threat in the world's top linguistic hotspot.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Pettorelli, Nathalie

2014-12-07

Languages share key evolutionary properties with biological species, and global-level spatial congruence in richness and threat is documented between languages and several taxonomic groups. However, there is little understanding of the functional connection between diversification or extinction in languages and species, or the relationship between linguistic and species richness across different spatial scales. New Guinea is the world's most linguistically rich region and contains extremely high biological diversity. We demonstrate significant positive relationships between language and mammal richness in New Guinea across multiple spatial scales, revealing a likely functional relationship over scales at which infra-island diversification may occur. However, correlations are driven by spatial congruence between low levels of language and species richness. Regional biocultural richness may have showed closer congruence before New Guinea's linguistic landscape was altered by Holocene demographic events. In contrast to global studies, we demonstrate a significant negative correlation across New Guinea between areas with high levels of threatened languages and threatened mammals, indicating that landscape-scale threats differ between these groups. Spatial resource prioritization to conserve biodiversity may not benefit threatened languages, and conservation policy must adopt a multi-faceted approach to protect biocultural diversity as a whole.

On the front lines: Stakeholder threat cues determine how identified employees cope with scandal.

PubMed

Grandey, Alicia A; Krannitz, Morgan A; Slezak, Tyler

2015-07-01

When organizational identity is threatened as a result of scandal, highly identified members who represent the threatened organization to stakeholders have a particularly challenging and overlooked experience. Addressing a theoretical paradox, we propose that organizational identification interacts with the threat cues from stakeholders to determine employee responses. We conducted a multimethod, in vivo test of these ideas with university fundraising employees after events threatened the university's moral identity. Interview and archival data demonstrated that stakeholders expressed identity threat to fundraisers, who experienced their own identity-related distress and engaged in both group-dissociative and group-affirming responses. Surveys of professional and student university fundraisers demonstrated that more identified employees were more distressed (e,g., felt anxious, grief, betrayed) regardless of stakeholder threat cues. Yet, when employees perceived weak threat cues from stakeholders, more identified members were less likely to dissociate from the group and more likely to affirm the group's positive identity with stakeholders. These benefits of identification were not present when the stakeholder threat cues were strong. We discuss future research and practical implications of front-line employee identification and stakeholder cues during scandal. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Values, animal symbolism, and human-animal relationships associated to two threatened felids in Mapuche and Chilean local narratives

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The Chilean temperate rainforest has been subjected to dramatic fragmentation for agriculture and forestry exploitation. Carnivore species are particularly affected by fragmentation and the resulting resource use conflicts with humans. This study aimed at understanding values and human-animal relationships with negatively perceived threatened carnivores through the disclosure of local stories and Mapuche traditional folktales. Methods Our mixed approach comprised the qualitative analysis of 112 stories on the kodkod cat (Leopardus guigna) and the puma (Puma concolor) collected by students (9-14 years) from 28 schools in the Araucania region within their family contexts, 10 qualitative in-depth interviews with indigenous Mapuche people, 35 traditional Mapuche legends, and the significance of naming found in ethnographic collections. Results We revealed a quasi-extinction of traditional tales in the current knowledge pool about pumas and kodkods, local anecdotes, however, were present in significant numbers. Values associated to both felids were manifold, ranging from negativistic to positive values. While pumas played an important role in people’s spirituality, negative mythological connotations persisted in kodkod stories. Four prominent relationships were derived: (1) Both felids represent threats to livestock, pumas even to life, (2) both felids are symbols for upcoming negative events, (3) pumas are spiritual creatures, and (4) kodkods are threatened by humans. Recommendations are provided for stimulating new ways of perceiving unpopular and threatened carnivores among those who live in vicinity to them. PMID:23764186

Coining and defining novel nursing terminology. Part 2: critical incident nursing intervention.

PubMed

Wong, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

In the second of a three-part series, a novel nursing terminology is introduced and proposed for inclusion in the Nursing Interventions Classification (NIC): Critical incident nursing intervention (CINI), defined as any indirect or direct care registered nurse-initiated treatment, based upon clinical judgment and knowledge that a registered nurse performs in response to a critical incident nursing diagnosis (CIND). A CIND is defined as recognition of an acute life-threatening event that occurs as a result of disease, surgery, treatment, or medication. The literature, research studies, meta-analyses from a variety of disciplines, and personal clinical experience serve as the data sources for this article. The current nursing interventions in the NIC are inaccurate or inadequate for describing nursing care during life-threatening situations. The lack of standardized nursing terminology creates a barrier that may impede critical communication and patient care during life-threatening situations. Coining and defining novel nursing terminology, CINI, for patient care during life-threatening situations is important and fills the gap in the current standardized nursing terminology. Refining the NIC will permit nursing researchers, among others, to conduct studies on nursing interventions in conjunction with the proposed novel nursing terminology, CINI. The first article in this series (Part 1) introduced the novel nursing terminology: CIND; the present article (Part 2) introduces the novel nursing terminology: CINI; and the third article in this series (Part 3) will introduce the novel nursing terminology: critical incident control.

Characterizing rare-event property distributions via replicate molecular dynamics simulations of proteins.

PubMed

Krishnan, Ranjani; Walton, Emily B; Van Vliet, Krystyn J

2009-11-01

As computational resources increase, molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules are becoming an increasingly informative complement to experimental studies. In particular, it has now become feasible to use multiple initial molecular configurations to generate an ensemble of replicate production-run simulations that allows for more complete characterization of rare events such as ligand-receptor unbinding. However, there are currently no explicit guidelines for selecting an ensemble of initial configurations for replicate simulations. Here, we use clustering analysis and steered molecular dynamics simulations to demonstrate that the configurational changes accessible in molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules do not necessarily correlate with observed rare-event properties. This informs selection of a representative set of initial configurations. We also employ statistical analysis to identify the minimum number of replicate simulations required to sufficiently sample a given biomolecular property distribution. Together, these results suggest a general procedure for generating an ensemble of replicate simulations that will maximize accurate characterization of rare-event property distributions in biomolecules.

Lost moon, saved lives: using the movie Apollo 13 as a video primer in behavioral skills for simulation trainees and instructors.

PubMed

Halamek, Louis P

2010-10-01

Behavioral skills such as effective communication, teamwork, and leadership are critically important to successful outcomes in patient care, especially in resuscitation situations where correct decisions must be made rapidly. However, historically, these important skills have rarely been specifically addressed in learning programs directed at healthcare professionals. Not only have most healthcare professionals had little or no formal education and training in applying behavioral skills to their patient care activities but also many of those serving as instructors and content experts for training programs have few resources available that clearly illustrate what these skills are and how they may be used in the context of real clinical situations. This represents a serious shortcoming in the education and training of healthcare professionals and stands in distinct contrast to other industries.Aerospace, similar to other high-consequence industries, has a long history of the use of simulation to improve human performance and reduce risk: astronauts and the engineers in Mission Control spend hundreds of hours in simulated flight in preparation for every mission. The value of time spent in the simulator was clearly illustrated during the flight of Apollo 13, the third mission to land men on the moon. The Apollo 13 crew had to overcome a number of life-threatening technical and medical problems, and it was their simulation-based training that allowed them to display the teamwork, ingenuity, and determination needed to return to earth safely.The movie Apollo 13 depicts in a highly realistic manner the events that occurred during the flight, including the actions of the crew in space and those in Mission Control in Houston. Three scenes from this movie are described in this article; each serves as a useful example for healthcare professionals of the importance of simulation-based learning and the application of behavioral skills to successful resolution of crises. This article is meant to serve as a guide as to how this movie and other similar media may be used for facilitated group or independent learning, providing appropriate context and clear examples of key points to be discussed.

D Hydrodynamics Simulation of Amazonian Seasonally Flooded Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinel, S. S.; Bonnet, M. P.; Da Silva, J. S.; Cavalcanti, R., Sr.; Calmant, S.

2016-12-01

In the low Amazonian basin, interactions between floodplains and river channels are important in terms of water exchanges, sediments, or nutrients. These wetlands are considered as hotspot of biodiversity and are among the most productive in the world. However, they are threatened by climatic changes and anthropic activities. Hence, considering the implications for predicting inundation status of floodplain habitats, the strong interactions between water circulation, energy fluxes, biogeochemical and ecological processes, detailed analyses of flooding dynamics are useful and needed. Numerical inundation models offer means to study the interactions among different water sources. Modeling floods events in this area is challenging because flows respond to dynamic hydraulic controls coming from several water sources, complex geomorphology, and vegetation. In addition, due to the difficulty of access, there is a lack of existing hydrological data. In this context, the use of monitoring systems by remote sensing is a good option. In this study, we simulated filling and drainage processes of an Amazon floodplain (Janauacá Lake, AM, Brazil) over a 6 years period (2006-2012). Common approaches of flow modeling in the Amazon region consist of coupling a 1D simulation of the main channel flood wave to a 2D simulation of the inundation of the floodplain. Here, our approach differs as the floodplain is fully simulated. Model used is the 3D model IPH-ECO, which consists of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic module coupled with an ecosystem module. The IPH-ECO hydrodynamic module solves the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations using a semi-implicit discretization. After having calibrated the simulation against roughness coefficients, we validated the model in terms of vertical accuracy against water levels (daily in situ and altimetrics data), in terms of flood extent against inundation maps deduced from available remote-sensed product imagery (ALOS-1/PALSAR.), and in terms of velocity. We analyzed the inter-annual variability in hydrological fluxes and inundation dynamics of the floodplain unit. Dominant sources of inflow varied seasonally: among direct rain and local runoff (November to April), Amazon River (May to August) and seepage (September to October).

Epidemiological evidence for a relationship between life events, coping style, and personality factors in the development of breast cancer.

PubMed

Butow, P N; Hiller, J E; Price, M A; Thackway, S V; Kricker, A; Tennant, C C

2000-09-01

Review empirical evidence for a relationship between psychosocial factors and breast cancer development. Standardised quality assessment criteria were utilised to assess the evidence of psychosocial predictors of breast cancer development in the following domains: (a) stressful life events, (b) coping style, (c) social support, and (d) emotional and personality factors. Few well-designed studies report any association between life events and breast cancer, the exception being two small studies using the Life Events and Difficulties Schedule (LEDS) reporting an association between severely threatening events and breast cancer risk. Seven studies show anger repression or alexithymia are predictors, the strongest evidence suggesting younger women are at increased risk. There is no evidence that social support, chronic anxiety, or depression affects breast cancer development. With the exception of rationality/anti-emotionality, personality factors do not predict breast cancer risk. The evidence for a relationship between psychosocial factors and breast cancer is weak. The strongest predictors are emotional repression and severe life events. Future research would benefit from theoretical grounding and greater methodological rigour. Recommendations are given.

Sex differences in traumatic events and psychiatric morbidity associated to probable posttraumatic stress disorder among Latino prisoners.

PubMed

Pérez-Pedrogo, Coralee; Martínez-Taboas, Alfonso; González, Rafael A; Caraballo, José N; Albizu-García, Carmen E

2018-04-14

Latinos comprised 17.1% of the U.S. population and 33.1% of US prisoners, yet they are underrepresented in the psychopathology literature. Despite higher rates of trauma among incarcerated individuals than in the general population, most of the previous research in this area focused primarily on women samples, and very few studies examined sex differences in PTSD and traumatic experiences. In addition, there is a need for research assessing traumatic experiences and probable PTSD in men and women Latino inmates to inform culturally competent care and sex sensitive care for this vulnerable and underserved population. Our study examined whether men and women Latino inmates with probable Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), based on the cut off 40 or more symptoms on the Davidson Trauma Scale (DTS), differed significantly by the number of event types experienced, the type of potentially traumatizing event, and in co-occurring psychiatric conditions. A multi-stage sample design was used to select a probabilistic sample of 1,331 inmates from 26 penal institutions in PR of which 1179 participated in the study. Bivariate associations were calculated for each type of traumatic event and probable PTSD. Mean number of types of potentially traumatizing event experienced was comparable for both sexes (F = 3.83, M = 3.74) yet sex differences were found in the nature of the event. Women with probable PTSD had higher rates of experiencing rape and sexual abuse. Men had higher rates of experiencing combat in war, a life-threatening accident, of witnessing violence, and being threatened with a weapon. Men with significant ADHD symptoms in childhood and with Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) during adulthood were almost 5 and 7 times as likely to score above threshold on the DTS whereas women were >3 times as likely in the presence of ADHD symptoms in childhood or depression during adulthood. This study underscores the need to improve understanding of the clinical manifestations of trauma and co-occurring psychiatric conditions for appropriate sex sensitive interventions targeting Latinos living in prisons. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual worlds and team training.

PubMed

Dev, Parvati; Youngblood, Patricia; Heinrichs, W Leroy; Kusumoto, Laura

2007-06-01

An important component of all emergency medicine residency programs is managing trauma effectively as a member of an emergency medicine team, but practice on live patients is often impractical and mannequin-based simulators are expensive and require all trainees to be physically present at the same location. This article describes a project to develop and evaluate a computer-based simulator (the Virtual Emergency Department) for distance training in teamwork and leadership in trauma management. The virtual environment provides repeated practice opportunities with life-threatening trauma cases in a safe and reproducible setting.

Emotional intensity in episodic autobiographical memory and counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Stanley, Matthew L; Parikh, Natasha; Stewart, Gregory W; De Brigard, Felipe

2017-02-01

Episodic counterfactual thoughts-imagined alternative ways in which personal past events might have occurred-are frequently accompanied by intense emotions. Here, participants recollected positive and negative autobiographical memories and then generated better and worse episodic counterfactual events from those memories. Our results suggest that the projected emotional intensity during the simulated remembered/imagined event is significantly higher than but typically positively related to the emotional intensity while remembering/imagining the event. Furthermore, repeatedly simulating counterfactual events heightened the emotional intensity felt while simulating the counterfactual event. Finally, for both the emotional intensity accompanying the experience of remembering/imagining and the projected emotional intensity during the simulated remembered/imagined event, the emotional intensity of negative memories was greater than the emotional intensity of upward counterfactuals generated from them but lower than the emotional intensity of downward counterfactuals generated from them. These findings are discussed in relation to clinical work and functional theories of counterfactual thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Desktop Modeling and Simulation: Parsimonious, yet Effective Discrete-Event Simulation Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, James R.

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates how quickly students can be trained to construct useful discrete-event simulation models using Excel The typical supply chain used by many large national retailers is described, and an Excel-based simulation model is constructed of it The set of programming and simulation skills required for development of that model are then determined we conclude that six hours of training are required to teach the skills to MBA students . The simulation presented here contains all fundamental functionallty of a simulation model, and so our result holds for any discrete-event simulation model. We argue therefore that Industry workers with the same technical skill set as students having completed one year in an MBA program can be quickly trained to construct simulation models. This result gives credence to the efficacy of Desktop Modeling and Simulation whereby simulation analyses can be quickly developed, run, and analyzed with widely available software, namely Excel.

Consistent simulation of direct-photon production in hadron collisions including associated two-jet production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odaka, Shigeru; Kurihara, Yoshimasa

2016-05-01

We have developed an event generator for direct-photon production in hadron collisions, including associated 2-jet production in the framework of the GR@PPA event generator. The event generator consistently combines γ + 2-jet production processes with the lowest-order γ + jet and photon-radiation (fragmentation) processes from quantum chromodynamics (QCD) 2-jet production using a subtraction method. The generated events can be fed to general-purpose event generators to facilitate the addition of hadronization and decay simulations. Using the obtained event information, we can simulate photon isolation and hadron-jet reconstruction at the particle (hadron) level. The simulation reasonably reproduces measurement data obtained at the large hadron collider (LHC) concerning not only the inclusive photon spectrum, but also the correlation between the photon and jet. The simulation implies that the contribution of the γ + 2-jet is very large, especially in low photon-pT ( ≲ 50 GeV) regions. Discrepancies observed at low pT, although marginal, may indicate the necessity for the consideration of further higher-order processes. Unambiguous particle-level definition of the photon-isolation condition for the signal events is desired to be given explicitly in future measurements.

Influence of real and virtual heights on standing balance.

PubMed

Cleworth, Taylor W; Horslen, Brian C; Carpenter, Mark G

2012-06-01

Fear and anxiety induced by threatening scenarios, such as standing on elevated surfaces, have been shown to influence postural control in young adults. There is also a need to understand how postural threat influences postural control in populations with balance deficits and risk of falls. However, safety and feasibility issues limit opportunities to place such populations in physically threatening scenarios. Virtual reality (VR) has successfully been used to simulate threatening environments, although it is unclear whether the same postural changes can be elicited by changes in virtual and real threat conditions. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare the effects of real and virtual heights on changes to standing postural control, electrodermal activity (EDA) and psycho-social state. Seventeen subjects stood at low and high heights in both real and virtual environments matched in scale and visual detail. A repeated measures ANOVA revealed increases with height, independent of visual environment, in EDA, anxiety, fear, and center of pressure (COP) frequency, and decreases with height in perceived stability, balance confidence and COP amplitude. Interaction effects were seen for fear and COP mean position; where real elicited larger changes with height than VR. This study demonstrates the utility of VR, as simulated heights resulted in changes to postural, autonomic and psycho-social measures similar to those seen at real heights. As a result, VR may be a useful tool for studying threat related changes in postural control in populations at risk of falls, and to screen and rehabilitate balance deficits associated with fear and anxiety. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Taking precautions at KSC for Hurricane Georges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

Workers put up plywood barriers on the windows of the Operations Support Building (OSB) as part of a precautionary plan in the event that Hurricane Georges threatens Central Florida. In light of the unpredictable nature of hurricanes, the decision was made to minimize risk and provide protection to KSC personnel and to the Space Shuttle national asset. The Vehicle Assembly Building is reflected (left) in the uncovered windows of the OSB.

Affect Labeling: A Promising New Approach for Mitigating PTSD

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-12

any psychotherapy (within the last 3 months). (8) Ps must not have had any chronic or repeated neglect/maltreatment, sexual abuse, physical abuse...may develop after a person is exposed to one or more traumatic events involving actual or threatened physical injury or death. It is theorized...negative alterations in thoughts and emotions, and experience states of hyper-vigilance or hyper- arousal . Research suggests that approximately 70

Locus of Control and Coping Style as Stress Moderators in Achievement Oriented Individuals

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-05-01

stressfulness of events by coloring them as stimulating rather than threatening. This leads to attempts to transform oneself and grow by fostering ...efforts to master conditions of uncertainty that tax or exceed adaptive resources ( Latack , 1986). II includes any response thai prevents, avoids, or...more likely to be depressed, function poorly, experience more marital distress, and consume more alcohol. Latack (1986) classifying coping responses

Potential Life-Threatening Events in Schools Involving Rescue Inhalers, Epinephrine Autoinjectors, and Glucagon Delivery Devices: Reports from School Nurses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Katherine; Henselman, Kimbra; Laird, Brian; Quinones, Ana; Reutzel, Thomas

2012-01-01

The purpose of this research is to use the reports of school nurses to facilitate the understanding of how schools experience and manage asthmatic, anaphylactic, and diabetic emergencies by quantitative and qualitative analysis of online surveys. E-mails with a link to SurveyMonkey[R] were sent to all U.S. members of the National Association of…

McClellan AFB, California. Operable Unit B, Engineering Evaluation/Cost Analysis - Environmental Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-02-01

however, ’the daily flow rate can dramatically increase during storm events due to rainwater infiltration, to the system . Treatment processes include...132 has been restricted from supplying water to the local distribution system , except in emergency situations. This well was being threatened by...the near surface aquifer upgradient from the production well. The extracted groundwater will be treated in a granular activated carbon system and

Preventing Genocide: A Framework for Military Planners

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-10

nation stood by while people were threatened with genocide. With the horrors of the Nazi genocide quite fresh in their minds, American citizens...Soviet Union, China, Cambodia), ethnic mass killings (Turkish Armenia, Nazi Germany and Rwanda) and counter-guerilla mass killings (Guatemala and...European Jews by Nazi Germany. Shocked at the barbarity of the death camps, the post-war world community sought to make amends and prevent such an event

Invisible Wounds of War. Summary and Recommendations for Addressing Psychological and Cognitive Injuries

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

experiences—are just beginning to emerge. Recent reports and increasing media attention have prompted intense scrutiny and examination of these injuries...stress disorder (PTSD), an anxiety disorder that can develop after direct or indirect exposure to a terrifying event or ordeal in which grave...physical harm occurred or was threatened; major depression; and generalized anxiety (National Insti- tute of Mental Health, Mental Health Topics page). 2

Assessment of Critical Events Corridors through Multivariate Cascading Outages Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng

2011-10-17

Massive blackouts of electrical power systems in North America over the past decade has focused increasing attention upon ways to identify and simulate network events that may potentially lead to widespread network collapse. This paper summarizes a method to simulate power-system vulnerability to cascading failures to a supplied set of initiating events synonymously termed as Extreme Events. The implemented simulation method is currently confined to simulating steady state power-system response to a set of extreme events. The outlined method of simulation is meant to augment and provide a new insight into bulk power transmission network planning that at present remainsmore » mainly confined to maintaining power system security for single and double component outages under a number of projected future network operating conditions. Although one of the aims of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of simulating network vulnerability to cascading outages, a more important goal has been to determine vulnerable parts of the network that may potentially be strengthened in practice so as to mitigate system susceptibility to cascading failures. This paper proposes to demonstrate a systematic approach to analyze extreme events and identify vulnerable system elements that may be contributing to cascading outages. The hypothesis of critical events corridors is proposed to represent repeating sequential outages that can occur in the system for multiple initiating events. The new concept helps to identify system reinforcements that planners could engineer in order to 'break' the critical events sequences and therefore lessen the likelihood of cascading outages. This hypothesis has been successfully validated with a California power system model.« less

Religiousness, religious coping methods and distress level among psychiatric patients in Malaysia.

PubMed

Nurasikin, M S; Khatijah, L A; Aini, A; Ramli, M; Aida, S A; Zainal, N Z; Ng, C G

2013-06-01

Patients having psychiatric diagnoses often experience high level of distress. Religiousness is often used by them as part of their coping mechanism and problem-solving strategies. To determine the level of religious commitment and coping methods in psychiatric patients and its relationship with distress level. Religious commitment and coping patterns were measured with the Duke University Religious Index (DUREL) and Brief RCOPE, respectively. Psychopathology was assessed using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) and distress level was assessed with the Depressive, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS). Social support and experiences of recent threatening events were measured with the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) and Life Threatening Events (LTE). A total of 228 patients were included in this study with a mean age of 40.2 years. The majority were male, Malay, Muslim, single and with psychotic disorder. The subjects had a high level of religious commitment and had used more positive coping methods. Negative religious coping, psychiatric symptoms and diagnosis of anxiety disorder or major depression were significantly associated with high distress level. Higher religious commitment was significantly associated with lower distress (p < .05). Psychiatric patients were religiously committed and used more positive religious coping methods. Practices of negative religious coping, severe psychiatric symptoms and anxiety/depression were associated with higher distress.

Not so bad: avoidance and aversive discounting modulate threat appraisal in anterior cingulate and medial prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Schlund, Michael W.; Brewer, Adam T.; Richman, David M.; Magee, Sandy K.; Dymond, Simon

2015-01-01

The dorsal anterior cingulate (adACC) and dorsal medial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) play a central role in the discrimination and appraisal of threatening stimuli. Yet, little is known about what specific features of threatening situations recruit these regions and how avoidance may modulate appraisal and activation through prevention of aversive events. In this investigation, 30 healthy adults underwent functional neuroimaging while completing an avoidance task in which responses to an Avoidable CS+ threat prevented delivery of an aversive stimulus, but not to an Unavoidable CS+ threat. Extinction testing was also completed where CSs were presented without aversive stimulus delivery and an opportunity to avoid. The Avoidable CS+ relative to the Unavoidable CS+ was associated with reductions in ratings of negative valence, fear, and US expectancy and activation. Greater regional activation was consistently observed to the Unavoidable CS+ during avoidance, which declined during extinction. Individuals exhibiting greater aversive discounting—that is, those more avoidant of immediate monetary loss compared to a larger delayed loss—also displayed greater activation to the Unavoidable CS+, highlighting aversive discounting as a significant individual difference variable. These are the first results linking adACC/dmPFC reactivity to avoidance-based reductions of aversive events and modulation of activation by individual differences in aversive discounting. PMID:26113813

Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Progressive Combined Immunodeficiency and Lymphoproliferation in Activated PI3K Syndrome Type 1.

PubMed

Okano, Tsubasa; Imai, Kohsuke; Tsujita, Yuki; Mitsuiki, Noriko; Yoshida, Kenichi; Kamae, Chikako; Honma, Kenichi; Mitsui-Sekinaka, Kanako; Sekinaka, Yujin; Kato, Tamaki; Hanabusa, Katsuyuki; Endo, Eri; Takashima, Takehiro; Hiroki, Haruka; Yeh, Tzu-Wen; Tanaka, Keisuke; Nagahori, Masakazu; Tsuge, Ikuya; Bando, Yuki; Iwasaki, Fuminori; Shikama, Yoshiaki; Inoue, Masami; Kimoto, Tomiko; Moriguchi, Naohiko; Yuza, Yuki; Kaneko, Takashi; Suzuki, Kyoko; Matsubara, Tomoyo; Maruo, Yoshihiro; Kunitsu, Tomoaki; Waragai, Tomoko; Sano, Hideki; Hashimoto, Yuko; Tasaki, Kazuhiro; Suzuki, Osamu; Shirakawa, Toshihiko; Kato, Motohiro; Uchiyama, Toru; Ishimura, Masataka; Tauchi, Tetsuzo; Yagasaki, Hiroshi; Jou, Shiann-Tarng; Yu, Hsin-Hui; Kanegane, Hirokazu; Kracker, Sven; Durandy, Anne; Kojima, Daiei; Muramatsu, Hideki; Wada, Taizo; Inoue, Yuzaburo; Takada, Hidetoshi; Kojima, Seiji; Ogawa, Seishi; Ohara, Osamu; Nonoyama, Shigeaki; Morio, Tomohiro

2018-05-17

Activated phosphatidylinositol-3-OH kinase-delta (PI3Kδ) syndrome type 1 (APDS1) is a recently described primary immunodeficiency syndrome characterized by recurrent respiratory infections, lymphoid hyperplasia, and herpesviridae infections due to germline gain-of-function mutations of PIK3CD. Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) may be considered to ameliorate progressive immunodeficiency and associated malignancy, but appropriate indications, method, and outcomes of HSCT for APDS1 remain undefined. Our objective was to analyze the clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, prognosis, and treatment of APDS1 and explore appropriate indications and methods of HSCT. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of cohorts undergoing HSCT at collaborating facilities. Thirty-year overall survival was 86.1%, but event-free survival was 39.6%. Life-threatening events, such as severe infections or lymphoproliferation, were frequent in childhood and adolescence, and were common indications for HSCT. Nine patients underwent HSCT with fludarabine-based reduced intensity conditioning (RIC). Seven patients survived after frequent adverse complications and engraftment failure. Most symptoms improved after HSCT. Patients with APDS1 showed variable clinical manifestations. Life-threatening progressive combined immunodeficiency and massive lymphoproliferation were common indications for HSCT. Fludarabine-based RIC-HSCT ameliorated clinical symptoms, but transplant-related complications were frequent, including graft failure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lactic Acidosis with Chloramphenicol Treatment in a Child with Cystic Fibrosis.

PubMed

Goyer, Isabelle; Iseppon, Massimiliano; Thibault, Céline; Abaji, Rachid; Krajinovic, Maja; Autmizguine, Julie

2017-01-30

Children with cystic fibrosis are commonly colonized with multi-resistant bacteria. In such patients, infectious exacerbation may require salvage therapy with uncommonly used antimicrobials, including chloramphenicol. Chloramphenicol is rarely used nowadays because of the associated severe adverse events. We describe the case of a 15-year-old female with terminal cystic fibrosis who required intravenous (IV) chloramphenicol treatment for a Burkholderia cepacia (B. cepacia) exacerbation. The child subsequently developed lactic acidosis and secondary respiratory compensation adding to her baseline respiratory distress. Based on the Naranjo scale, the probability of chloramphenicol being the cause of the hyperlactatemia and associated respiratory distress was rated as probable, as the adverse effects resolved upon discontinuation of the drug. Subsequent genotyping for mitochondrial polymorphism (G3010A) confirmed a possible susceptibility to lactic acidosis from mitochondrial RNA-inhibiting agents such as chloramphenicol. Hyperlactatemia is a rare but life threatening adverse effect that has been previously reported with chloramphenicol exposure, but is not generally thought of. Clinicians should be aware of this potentially life threatening, but reversible adverse event. Lactate should be monitored under chloramphenicol and it should be discontinued as soon as this complication is suspected, especially in patients with low respiratory reserve. © 2017 Journal of Population Therapeutics and Clinical Pharmacology. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Time Advance Mechanism on Simple Agent Behaviors in Combat Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

modeling packages that illustrate the differences between discrete-time simulation (DTS) and discrete-event simulation ( DES ) methodologies. Many combat... DES ) models , often referred to as “next-event” (Law and Kelton 2000) or discrete time simulation (DTS), commonly referred to as “time-step.” DTS...discrete-time simulation (DTS) and discrete-event simulation ( DES ) methodologies. Many combat models use DTS as their simulation time advance mechanism

Teaching sexual history-taking skills using the Sexual Events Classification System.

PubMed

Fidler, Donald C; Petri, Justin Daniel; Chapman, Mark

2010-01-01

The authors review the literature about educational programs for teaching sexual history-taking skills and describe novel techniques for teaching these skills. Psychiatric residents enrolled in a brief sexual history-taking course that included instruction on the Sexual Events Classification System, feedback on residents' video-recorded interviews with simulated patients, discussion of videos that simulated bad interviews, simulated patients, and a competency scoring form to score a video of a simulated interview. After the course, residents completed an anonymous survey to assess the usefulness of the experience. After the course, most residents felt more comfortable taking sexual histories. They described the Sexual Events Classification System and simulated interviews as practical methods for teaching sexual history-taking skills. The Sexual Events Classification System and simulated patient experiences may serve as a practical model for teaching sexual history-taking skills to general psychiatric residents.

Effect of just-in-time simulation training on tracheal intubation procedure safety in the pediatric intensive care unit.

PubMed

Nishisaki, Akira; Donoghue, Aaron J; Colborn, Shawn; Watson, Christine; Meyer, Andrew; Brown, Calvin A; Helfaer, Mark A; Walls, Ron M; Nadkarni, Vinay M

2010-07-01

Tracheal intubation-associated events (TIAEs) are common (20%) and life threatening (4%) in pediatric intensive care units. Physician trainees are required to learn tracheal intubation during intensive care unit rotations. The authors hypothesized that "just-in-time" simulation-based intubation refresher training would improve resident participation, success, and decrease TIAEs. For 14 months, one of two on-call residents, nurses, and respiratory therapists received 20-min multidisciplinary simulation-based tracheal intubation training and 10-min resident skill refresher training at the beginning of their on-call period in addition to routine residency education. The rate of first attempt and overall success between refresher-trained and concurrent non-refresher-trained residents (controls) during the intervention phase was compared. The incidence of TIAEs between preintervention and intervention phase was also compared. Four hundred one consecutive primary orotracheal intubations were evaluated: 220 preintervention and 181 intervention. During intervention phase, neither first-attempt success nor overall success rate differed between refresher-trained residents versus concurrent non-refresher-trained residents: 20 of 40 (50%) versus 15 of 24 (62.5%), P = 0.44 and 23 of 40 (57.5%) versus 18 of 24 (75.0%), P = 0.19, respectively. The resident's first attempt and overall success rate did not differ between preintervention and intervention phases. The incidence of TIAE during preintervention and intervention phases was similar: 22.0% preintervention versus 19.9% intervention, P = 0.62, whereas resident participation increased from 20.9% preintervention to 35.4% intervention, P = 0.002. Resident participation continued to be associated with TIAE even after adjusting for the phase and difficult airway condition: odds ratio 2.22 (95% CI 1.28-3.87, P = 0.005). Brief just-in-time multidisciplinary simulation-based intubation refresher training did not improve the resident's first attempt or overall tracheal intubation success.

Development of Inundation Map for Bantayan Island, Cebu Using Delft3D-Flow Storm Surge Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadra, Camille; Suarez, John Kenneth; Biton, Nophi Ian; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Lapidez, John Phillip; Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

On average, 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility annually, making it vulnerable to different storm hazards. Apart from the frequency of tropical cyclones, the archipelagic nature of the country makes it particularly prone to storm surges. On 08 November 2013, Haiyan, a Category 5 Typhoon with maximum one-minute sustained wind speed of 315 kph, hit the central region of the Philippines. In its path, the howler devastated Bantayan Island, a popular tourist destination. The island is located north of Cebu City, the second largest metropolis of the Philippines in terms of populace. Having been directly hit by Typhoon Haiyan, Bantayan Island was severely damaged by strong winds and storm surges, with more than 11,000 houses totally destroyed while 5,000 more suffered minor damage. The adverse impacts of possible future storm surge events in the island can only be mitigated if hazard maps that depict inundation of the coastal areas of Bantayan are generated. To create such maps, Delft3D-Flow, a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate storm surges. These simulations were made over a 10-m per pixel resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) bathymetry. The results of the coastal inundation model for Typhoon Haiyan's storm surges were validated using data collected from field work and local government reports. The hydrodynamic model of Bantayan was then calibrated using the field data and further simulations were made with varying typhoon tracks. This was done to generate scenarios on the farthest possible inland incursion of storm surges. The output of the study is a detailed storm surge inundation map that depicts safe zones for development of infrastructure near coastal areas and for construction of coastal protection structures. The storm surge inundation map can also be used as basis for disaster preparedness plans of coastal communities threatened by approaching typhoons.

A snow-tracking protocol used to delineate local lynx, Lynx canadensis, distributions

Treesearch

John R. Squires; Kevin S. McKelvey; Leonard F. Ruggiero

2004-01-01

Determining Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) distribution is an important management need, especially at the southern extent of the species range where it is listed as threatened under the U. S. Endangered Species Act. We describe a systematic snowtrack based sampling framework that provides reliable distribution data for Canada Lynx. We used computer simulations...

Source water contributions and hydrologic responses to simulated emerald ash borer infestations in depressional black ash wetlands

Treesearch

Matthew J. Van Grinsven; Joseph P. Shannon; Joshua C. Davis; Nicholas W. Bolton; Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Randall K. Kolka; Thomas Grant Pypker

2017-01-01

Forested wetlands dominated by black ash (Fraxinus nigra) are currently threatened by the rapid expansion of the exotic emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis, Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in North America, and very little is known about the hydrology and ecology of black ash wetlands. The ecohydrological response of...

CHARACTERIZING THE EFFECT OF CHLORINE AND CHLORAMINES ON THE FORMATION OF BIOFILM IN A SIMULATED DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Drinking wate treatment in the US has played a major role in protecting public health through the reduction of wateborne disease. However, carcinogenic and toxic contaminants continue to threaten the quality of surface and ground water in the US. The passage of the Safe Drinking ...

Forest product trade impacts of an invasive species: modeling structure and intervention trade-offs

Treesearch

Jeffrey Prestemon; Shushuai Zhu; James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Ruhong Li

2006-01-01

Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markers and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a...

Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in Sardinia, Italy

Treesearch

Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Bachisio Arca; Mark A. Finney; Valentina Bacciu; Pierpaolo Duce; Donatella Spano

2012-01-01

We used simulation modelling to analyze spatial variation in wildfire exposure relative to key social and economic features on the island of Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational values and highly valued agricultural areas that are increasingly being threatened by severe wildfires. Historical fire data and wildfire...

Simulations of population dynamics of hemlock woolly adelgid and potential impact of biological control agents

Treesearch

Joseph S. Elkinton; Robert T. Trotter; Ann F. Paradis

2011-01-01

The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is a small invasive Hemipteran herbivore that threatens the continued presence and abundance of hemlock in eastern North America. Efforts to control the adelgid have focused on the introduction of classical biological control agents. These biological controls include six different species of predatory...

The Application of SNiPER to the JUNO Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tao; Zou, Jiaheng; Li, Weidong; Deng, Ziyan; Fang, Xiao; Cao, Guofu; Huang, Xingtao; You, Zhengyun; JUNO Collaboration

2017-10-01

The JUNO (Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory) is a multipurpose neutrino experiment which is designed to determine neutrino mass hierarchy and precisely measure oscillation parameters. As one of the important systems, the JUNO offline software is being developed using the SNiPER software. In this proceeding, we focus on the requirements of JUNO simulation and present the working solution based on the SNiPER. The JUNO simulation framework is in charge of managing event data, detector geometries and materials, physics processes, simulation truth information etc. It glues physics generator, detector simulation and electronics simulation modules together to achieve a full simulation chain. In the implementation of the framework, many attractive characteristics of the SNiPER have been used, such as dynamic loading, flexible flow control, multiple event management and Python binding. Furthermore, additional efforts have been made to make both detector and electronics simulation flexible enough to accommodate and optimize different detector designs. For the Geant4-based detector simulation, each sub-detector component is implemented as a SNiPER tool which is a dynamically loadable and configurable plugin. So it is possible to select the detector configuration at runtime. The framework provides the event loop to drive the detector simulation and interacts with the Geant4 which is implemented as a passive service. All levels of user actions are wrapped into different customizable tools, so that user functions can be easily extended by just adding new tools. The electronics simulation has been implemented by following an event driven scheme. The SNiPER task component is used to simulate data processing steps in the electronics modules. The electronics and trigger are synchronized by triggered events containing possible physics signals. The JUNO simulation software has been released and is being used by the JUNO collaboration to do detector design optimization, event reconstruction algorithm development and physics sensitivity studies.

Investigation of Amphibian Mortality Events in Wildlife Reveals an On-Going Ranavirus Epidemic in the North of the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Wilkie, Gavin S.; van Asten, Alphons J. A. M.; van den Broek, Jan; Boonyarittichaikij, Roschong; Stege, Marisca; van der Sterren, Fleur; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Hughes, Joseph; Gröne, Andrea; van Beurden, Steven J.; Kik, Marja J. L.

2016-01-01

In the four years following the first detection of ranavirus (genus Ranavirus, family Iridoviridae) infection in Dutch wildlife in 2010, amphibian mortality events were investigated nationwide to detect, characterize and map ranaviruses in amphibians over time, and to establish the affected host species and the clinico-pathological presentation of the disease in these hosts. The ultimate goal was to obtain more insight into ranavirus disease emergence and ecological risk. In total 155 dead amphibians from 52 sites were submitted between 2011 and 2014, and examined using histopathology, immunohistochemistry, virus isolation and molecular genetic characterization. Ranavirus-associated amphibian mortality events occurred at 18 sites (35%), initially only in proximity of the 2010 index site. Specimens belonging to approximately half of the native amphibian species were infected, including the threatened Pelobates fuscus (spadefoot toad). Clustered massive outbreaks involving dead adult specimens and ranavirus genomic identity indicated that one common midwife toad virus (CMTV)-like ranavirus strain is emerging in provinces in the north of the Netherlands. Modelling based on the spatiotemporal pattern of spread showed a high probability that this emerging virus will continue to be detected at new sites (the discrete reproductive power of this outbreak is 0.35). Phylogenetically distinct CMTV-like ranaviruses were found in the south of the Netherlands more recently. In addition to showing that CMTV-like ranaviruses threaten wild amphibian populations not only in Spain but also in the Netherlands, the current spread and risk of establishment reiterate that understanding the underlying causes of CMTV-like ranavirus emergence requires international attention. PMID:27315226

Investigation of Amphibian Mortality Events in Wildlife Reveals an On-Going Ranavirus Epidemic in the North of the Netherlands.

PubMed

Rijks, Jolianne M; Saucedo, Bernardo; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Wilkie, Gavin S; van Asten, Alphons J A M; van den Broek, Jan; Boonyarittichaikij, Roschong; Stege, Marisca; van der Sterren, Fleur; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Hughes, Joseph; Gröne, Andrea; van Beurden, Steven J; Kik, Marja J L

2016-01-01

In the four years following the first detection of ranavirus (genus Ranavirus, family Iridoviridae) infection in Dutch wildlife in 2010, amphibian mortality events were investigated nationwide to detect, characterize and map ranaviruses in amphibians over time, and to establish the affected host species and the clinico-pathological presentation of the disease in these hosts. The ultimate goal was to obtain more insight into ranavirus disease emergence and ecological risk. In total 155 dead amphibians from 52 sites were submitted between 2011 and 2014, and examined using histopathology, immunohistochemistry, virus isolation and molecular genetic characterization. Ranavirus-associated amphibian mortality events occurred at 18 sites (35%), initially only in proximity of the 2010 index site. Specimens belonging to approximately half of the native amphibian species were infected, including the threatened Pelobates fuscus (spadefoot toad). Clustered massive outbreaks involving dead adult specimens and ranavirus genomic identity indicated that one common midwife toad virus (CMTV)-like ranavirus strain is emerging in provinces in the north of the Netherlands. Modelling based on the spatiotemporal pattern of spread showed a high probability that this emerging virus will continue to be detected at new sites (the discrete reproductive power of this outbreak is 0.35). Phylogenetically distinct CMTV-like ranaviruses were found in the south of the Netherlands more recently. In addition to showing that CMTV-like ranaviruses threaten wild amphibian populations not only in Spain but also in the Netherlands, the current spread and risk of establishment reiterate that understanding the underlying causes of CMTV-like ranavirus emergence requires international attention.

Comparison of ground motions from hybrid simulations to nga prediction equations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Star, L.M.; Stewart, J.P.; Graves, R.W.

2011-01-01

We compare simulated motions for a Mw 7.8 rupture scenario on the San Andreas Fault known as the ShakeOut event, two permutations with different hypocenter locations, and a Mw 7.15 Puente Hills blind thrust scenario, to median and dispersion predictions from empirical NGA ground motion prediction equations. We find the simulated motions attenuate faster with distance than is predicted by the NGA models for periods less than about 5.0 s After removing this distance attenuation bias, the average residuals of the simulated events (i.e., event terms) are generally within the scatter of empirical event terms, although the ShakeOut simulation appears to be a high static stress drop event. The intraevent dispersion in the simulations is lower than NGA values at short periods and abruptly increases at 1.0 s due to different simulation procedures at short and long periods. The simulated motions have a depth-dependent basin response similar to the NGA models, and also show complex effects in which stronger basin response occurs when the fault rupture transmits energy into a basin at low angle, which is not predicted by the NGA models. Rupture directivity effects are found to scale with the isochrone parameter ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Repetition-related reductions in neural activity reveal component processes of mental simulation.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; St Jacques, Peggy L; Robbins, Clifford A; Wig, Gagan S; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-05-01

In everyday life, people adaptively prepare for the future by simulating dynamic events about impending interactions with people, objects and locations. Previous research has consistently demonstrated that a distributed network of frontal-parietal-temporal brain regions supports this ubiquitous mental activity. Nonetheless, little is known about the manner in which specific regions of this network contribute to component features of future simulation. In two experiments, we used a functional magnetic resonance (fMR)-repetition suppression paradigm to demonstrate that distinct frontal-parietal-temporal regions are sensitive to processing the scenarios or what participants imagined was happening in an event (e.g., medial prefrontal, posterior cingulate, temporal-parietal and middle temporal cortices are sensitive to the scenarios associated with future social events), people (medial prefrontal cortex), objects (inferior frontal and premotor cortices) and locations (posterior cingulate/retrosplenial, parahippocampal and posterior parietal cortices) that typically constitute simulations of personal future events. This pattern of results demonstrates that the neural substrates of these component features of event simulations can be reliably identified in the context of a task that requires participants to simulate complex, everyday future experiences.

Program For Parallel Discrete-Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beckman, Brian C.; Blume, Leo R.; Geiselman, John S.; Presley, Matthew T.; Wedel, John J., Jr.; Bellenot, Steven F.; Diloreto, Michael; Hontalas, Philip J.; Reiher, Peter L.; Weiland, Frederick P.

1991-01-01

User does not have to add any special logic to aid in synchronization. Time Warp Operating System (TWOS) computer program is special-purpose operating system designed to support parallel discrete-event simulation. Complete implementation of Time Warp mechanism. Supports only simulations and other computations designed for virtual time. Time Warp Simulator (TWSIM) subdirectory contains sequential simulation engine interface-compatible with TWOS. TWOS and TWSIM written in, and support simulations in, C programming language.

Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans.

PubMed

Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; McCauley, Douglas J

2016-09-16

To better predict the ecological and evolutionary effects of the emerging biodiversity crisis in the modern oceans, we compared the association between extinction threat and ecological traits in modern marine animals to associations observed during past extinction events using a database of 2497 marine vertebrate and mollusc genera. We find that extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa. Pelagic animals were victimized more than benthic animals during previous mass extinctions but are not preferentially threatened in the modern ocean. The differential importance of large-bodied animals to ecosystem function portends greater future ecological disruption than that caused by similar levels of taxonomic loss in past mass extinction events. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Resilience of coastal wetlands to extreme hydrologic events in Apalachicola Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahsin, Subrina; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Singh, Arvind

2016-07-01

Extreme hydrologic events such as hurricanes and droughts continuously threaten wetlands which provide key ecosystem services in coastal areas. The recovery time for vegetation after impact from these extreme events can be highly variable depending on the hazard type and intensity. Apalachicola Bay in Florida is home to a rich variety of saltwater and freshwater wetlands and is subject to a wide range of hydrologic hazards. Using spatiotemporal changes in Landsat-based empirical vegetation indices, we investigate the impact of hurricane and drought on both freshwater and saltwater wetlands from year 2000 to 2015 in Apalachicola Bay. Our results indicate that saltwater wetlands are more resilient than freshwater wetlands and suggest that in response to hurricanes, the coastal wetlands took almost a year to recover, while recovery following a drought period was observed after only a month.

Design of virtual simulation experiment based on key events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Zheng; Zhou, Dongbo; Song, Lingxiu

2018-06-01

Considering complex content and lacking of guidance in virtual simulation experiments, the key event technology in VR narrative theory was introduced for virtual simulation experiment to enhance fidelity and vividness process. Based on the VR narrative technology, an event transition structure was designed to meet the need of experimental operation process, and an interactive event processing model was used to generate key events in interactive scene. The experiment of" margin value of bees foraging" based on Biologic morphology was taken as an example, many objects, behaviors and other contents were reorganized. The result shows that this method can enhance the user's experience and ensure experimental process complete and effectively.

[Costs of serious adverse events in a community teaching hospital, in Mexico].

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Mendoza, Luis Meave; Torres-Montes, Abraham; Soria-Orozco, Manuel; Padrón-Salas, Aldanely; Ramírez-Hernández, María Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Serious adverse events during hospital care are a worldwide reality and threaten the safety of the hospitalised patient. To identify serious adverse events related to healthcare and direct hospital costs in a Teaching Hospital in México. A study was conducted in a 250-bed Teaching Hospital in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Data were obtained from the Quality and Patient Safety Department based on 2012 incidents report. Every event was reviewed and analysed by an expert team using the "fish bone" tool. The costs were calculated since the event took place until discharge or death of the patient. A total of 34 serious adverse events were identified. The average cost was $117,440.89 Mexican pesos (approx. €7,000). The great majority (82.35%) were largely preventable and related to the process of care. Undergraduate medical staff were involved in 58.82%, and 14.7% of patients had suffered adverse events in other hospitals. Serious adverse events in a Teaching Hospital setting need to be analysed to learn and deploy interventions to prevent and improve patient safety. The direct costs of these events are similar to those reported in developed countries. Copyright © 2015 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Resident training for eclampsia and magnesium toxicity management: simulation or traditional lecture?

PubMed

Fisher, Nelli; Bernstein, Peter S; Satin, Andrew; Pardanani, Setul; Heo, Hye; Merkatz, Irwin R; Goffman, Dena

2010-10-01

To compare eclampsia and magnesium toxicity management among residents randomly assigned to lecture or simulation-based education. Statified by year, residents (n = 38) were randomly assigned to 3 educational intervention groups: Simulation→Lecture, Simulation, and Lecture. Postintervention simulations were performed for all and scored using standardized lists. Maternal, fetal, eclampsia management, and magnesium toxcity scores were assigned. Mann-Whitney U, Wilcoxon rank sum and χ(2) tests were used for analysis. Postintervention maternal (16 and 15 vs 12; P < .05) and eclampsia (19 vs 16; P < .05) scores were significantly better in simulation based compared with lecture groups. Postintervention magnesium toxcitiy and fetal scores were not different among groups. Lecture added to simulation did not lead to incremental benefit when eclampsia scores were compared between Simulation→Lecture and Simulation (19 vs 19; P = nonsignificant). Simulation training is superior to traditional lecture alone for teaching crucial skills for the optimal management of both eclampsia and magnesium toxicity, 2 life-threatening obstetric emergencies. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Arcus end-to-end simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilms, Joern; Guenther, H. Moritz; Dauser, Thomas; Huenemoerder, David P.; Ptak, Andrew; Smith, Randall; Arcus Team

2018-01-01

We present an overview of the end-to-end simulation environment that we are implementing as part of the Arcus phase A Study. With the rcus simulator, we aim to to model the imaging, detection, and event reconstruction properties of the spectrometer. The simulator uses a Monte Carlo ray-trace approach, projecting photons onto the Arcus focal plane from the silicon pore optic mirrors and critical-angle transmission gratings. We simulate the detection and read-out of the photons in the focal plane CCDs with software originally written for the eROSITA and Athena-WFI detectors; we include all relevant detector physics, such as charge splitting, and effects of the detector read-out, such as out of time events. The output of the simulation chain is an event list that closely resembles the data expected during flight. This event list is processed using a prototype event reconstruction chain for the order separation, wavelength calibration, and effective area calibration. The output is compatible with standard X-ray astronomical analysis software.During phase A, the end-to-end simulation approach is used to demonstrate the overall performance of the mission, including a full simulation of the calibration effort. Continued development during later phases of the mission will ensure that the simulator remains a faithful representation of the true mission capabilities, and will ultimately be used as the Arcus calibration model.

The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation events over the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.; Bruggeman, A.; Camera, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to substantially influence precipitation amounts and distribution. To improve simulations of extreme rainfall events, we analyzed the performance of different convection and microphysics parameterizations of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model at very high horizontal resolutions (12, 4 and 1 km). Our study focused on the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with WRF. We applied an objective ranking scheme, using a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus and six different performance metrics, to investigate the skill of the WRF configurations. We evaluated the rainfall timing and amounts for the different resolutions, and discussed the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three gridded precipitation datasets (E-OBS, APHRODITE and CHIRPS). Simulations with WRF capture rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the WRF simulations improved the ERA-Interim data, which strongly underestimate the rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance is obtained for the January 1989 event, simulated with an average bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff of 0.72 for the 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. We found overall added value for the convection-permitting simulations, especially over regions of high-elevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus. Finally, we identified significant and inconsistent discrepancies between the three, state of the art, gridded precipitation datasets for the tested events, highlighting the observational uncertainty in the region.

An Advanced Simulation Framework for Parallel Discrete-Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, P. P.; Tyrrell, R. Yeung D.; Adhami, N.; Li, T.; Henry, H.

1994-01-01

Discrete-event simulation (DEVS) users have long been faced with a three-way trade-off of balancing execution time, model fidelity, and number of objects simulated. Because of the limits of computer processing power the analyst is often forced to settle for less than desired performances in one or more of these areas.

The cost of conservative synchronization in parallel discrete event simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1990-01-01

The performance of a synchronous conservative parallel discrete-event simulation protocol is analyzed. The class of simulation models considered is oriented around a physical domain and possesses a limited ability to predict future behavior. A stochastic model is used to show that as the volume of simulation activity in the model increases relative to a fixed architecture, the complexity of the average per-event overhead due to synchronization, event list manipulation, lookahead calculations, and processor idle time approach the complexity of the average per-event overhead of a serial simulation. The method is therefore within a constant factor of optimal. The analysis demonstrates that on large problems--those for which parallel processing is ideally suited--there is often enough parallel workload so that processors are not usually idle. The viability of the method is also demonstrated empirically, showing how good performance is achieved on large problems using a thirty-two node Intel iPSC/2 distributed memory multiprocessor.

Social Justice and Mobility in Coastal Louisiana, USA.

PubMed

Colten, Craig E; Simms, Jessica R Z; Grismore, Audrey A; Hemmerling, Scott A

2018-02-01

Louisiana faces extensive coastal land loss which threatens the livelihoods of marginalized populations. These groups have endured extreme disruptive events in the past and have survived in the region by relying on several resilient practices, including mobility. Facing environmental changes that will be wrought by deliberate coastal restoration programs, elderly residents are resisting migration while younger residents continue a decades-long inland migration. Interviews and historical records illustrate a complex intersection of resilient practices and environmental migration. The process underway conflicts to some extent with prevailing concepts in environmental migration most notably deviating from established migration patterns. In terms of social justice, selective out-migration of younger adults leaves a more vulnerable population behind, but also provides a supplementary source of income and social links to inland locales. Organized resistance to restoration projects represents a social justice response to programs that threaten the resource-based livelihoods of coastal residents while offering protection to safer inland urban residents.

Motivated Use of Numerical Anchors for Judgments Relevant to the Self.

PubMed

Joel, Samantha; Spielmann, Stephanie S; MacDonald, Geoff

2017-07-01

The anchoring effect has been replicated so extensively that it is generally thought to be ubiquitous. However, anchoring has primarily been tested in domains in which people are motivated to reach accurate conclusions rather than biased conclusions. Is the anchoring effect robust even when the anchors are threatening? In three studies, participants made a series of probability judgments about their own futures paired with either optimistic anchors (e.g., "Do you think that the chances that your current relationship will last a lifetime are more or less than 95%?"), pessimistic anchors (e.g., "more or less than 10%?"), or no anchors. A fourth study experimentally manipulated motivation to ignore the anchor with financial incentives. Across studies, anchors that implied high probabilities of unwanted events occurring were ineffective. Together, these studies suggest that anchoring has an important boundary condition: Personally threatening anchors are ignored as a result of motivated reasoning processes.

Cell phone-induced ostracism threatens fundamental needs.

PubMed

Hales, Andrew H; Dvir, Maayan; Wesselmann, Eric D; Kruger, Daniel J; Finkenauer, Catrin

2018-01-01

Cell phones are useful tools with both practical and social benefits. However, using them in the context of face-to-face conversations may be problematic. We consider this behavior a form of ostracism and test its effects on the satisfaction of basic psychological needs for belonging, self-esteem, control, and meaningful existence. In Study 1 participants who recalled a time in which a friend was checking a cell phone during a serious conversation reported feeling more ostracized (ignored and excluded), greater pain, and threat to basic needs than participants recalling a conversation without a cell phone interruption or a control event. Study 2 replicated and extended this effect: Cell phone-induced ostracism's effects were partially mediated by decreased feelings of relational evaluation, and threatened basic needs both in serious and casual conversation contexts. Findings from both studies also indicated that cell phone-induced ostracism hurts women more so than men.

Never trust a croup…

PubMed Central

Nickinson, Andrew; Minhas, Jatinder Singh; Bhalla, Minak; Anwuzia-Iwegbu, Charles; Chapman, John

2011-01-01

A 2-year-old girl presented to the James Paget University Hospitals Trust with croup-like symptoms and was later discharged with dexamethasone syrup. The patient re-presented 6 h later following maternal concern with signs of acute respiratory distress. After a period of clinical stability, she acutely decompensated without any prior signs of a life-threatening deterioration. She was managed using nebulised epinephrine and showed signs of clinical improvement. Although improvement persisted, the child showed signs of exhaustion following the preceding events and was later intubed with an endotracheal tube and transferred to the paediatric intensive care unit at Addenbrooke’s University Hospital, Cambridge. Endotracheal aspiration later grew parainfluenza virus, rhinovirus and Staphylococcus aureus and the patient was diagnosed with the exceptionally rare life threatening complications of croup, bacterial tracheitis. The patient was discharged from intensive care 7 days later and has since made a full recovery. PMID:22689599

Prevalence and effects of life event exposure among undergraduate and community college students.

PubMed

Anders, Samantha L; Frazier, Patricia A; Shallcross, Sandra L

2012-07-01

The purposes of this study were to assess lifetime and recent exposure to various life events among undergraduate and community college students and to assess the relation between event exposure and a broad range of outcomes (i.e., mental and physical health, life satisfaction, grade point average). Undergraduate students from a midwestern university (N = 842) and a community college (N = 242) completed online measures of lifetime event exposure and outcomes at Time 1 and recent event exposure at Time 2 two months later. Life events assessed included events that did and did not meet the definition of a traumatic event (i.e., posttraumatic stress disorder Criterion A1) in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev.; DSM-IV-TR; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) as well as directly (e.g., own life-threatening illness) and indirectly (e.g., others' illness) experienced events. Students reported experiencing many lifetime and recent Criterion A1 and non-A1 events, and community college students reported more events than did university students. Generally, individuals who reported more lifetime events also reported poorer outcomes (e.g., poorer health). The number of non-Criterion A1 and directly experienced events tended to be more strongly correlated with negative outcomes than were the number of Criterion A1 and indirectly experienced events reported. These findings suggest that non-A1 events are important to assess and can be significantly related to outcomes for students.

Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang

2017-10-01

The projected frequent occurrences of extreme flood events will cause significant losses to crops and will threaten food security. To reduce the potential risk and provide support for agricultural flood management, prevention, and mitigation, it is important to account for flood damage to crop production and to understand the relationship between flood characteristics and crop losses. A quantitative and effective evaluation tool is therefore essential to explore what and how flood characteristics will affect the associated crop loss, based on accurately understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood evolution and crop growth. Current evaluation methods are generally integrally or qualitatively based on statistic data or ex-post survey with less diagnosis into the process and dynamics of historical flood events. Therefore, a quantitative and spatial evaluation framework is presented in this study that integrates remote sensing imagery and hydraulic model simulation to facilitate the identification of historical flood characteristics that influence crop losses. Remote sensing imagery can capture the spatial variation of crop yields and yield losses from floods on a grid scale over large areas; however, it is incapable of providing spatial information regarding flood progress. Two-dimensional hydraulic model can simulate the dynamics of surface runoff and accomplish spatial and temporal quantification of flood characteristics on a grid scale over watersheds, i.e., flow velocity and flood duration. The methodological framework developed herein includes the following: (a) Vegetation indices for the critical period of crop growth from mid-high temporal and spatial remote sensing imagery in association with agricultural statistics data were used to develop empirical models to monitor the crop yield and evaluate yield losses from flood; (b) The two-dimensional hydraulic model coupled with the SCS-CN hydrologic model was employed to simulate the flood evolution process, with the SCS-CN model as a rainfall-runoff generator and the two-dimensional hydraulic model implementing the routing scheme for surface runoff; and (c) The spatial combination between crop yield losses and flood dynamics on a grid scale can be used to investigate the relationship between the intensity of flood characteristics and associated loss extent. The modeling framework was applied for a 50-year return period flood that occurred in Jilin province, Northeast China, which caused large agricultural losses in August 2013. The modeling results indicated that (a) the flow velocity was the most influential factor that caused spring corn, rice and soybean yield losses from extreme storm event in the mountainous regions; (b) the power function archived the best results that fit the velocity-loss relationship for mountainous areas; and (c) integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach are helpful for evaluating the influence of historical flood event on crop production and investigating the relationship between flood characteristics and crop yield losses.

Risk for Clinically Relevant Adverse Cardiac Events in Patients With Chest Pain at Hospital Admission.

PubMed

Weinstock, Michael B; Weingart, Scott; Orth, Frank; VanFossen, Douglas; Kaide, Colin; Anderson, Judy; Newman, David H

2015-07-01

Patients with potentially ischemic chest pain are commonly admitted to the hospital or observed after a negative evaluation in the emergency department (ED) owing to concern about adverse events. Previous studies have looked at 30-day mortality, but no current large studies have examined the most important information regarding ED disposition: the short-term risk for a clinically relevant adverse cardiac event (including inpatient ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, life-threatening arrhythmia, cardiac or respiratory arrest, or death). To determine the incidence of clinically relevant adverse cardiac events in patients hospitalized for chest pain with 2 troponin-negative findings, nonconcerning initial ED vital signs, and nonischemic, interpretable electrocardiographic findings. We conducted a blinded data review of 45,416 encounters obtained from a prospectively collected database enrolling adult patients admitted or observed with the following inclusion criteria: (1) primary presenting symptom of chest pain, chest tightness, chest burning, or chest pressure and (2) negative findings for serial biomarkers. Data were collected and analyzed from July 1, 2008, through June 30, 2013, from the EDs of 3 community teaching institutions with an aggregate census of more than 1 million visits. We analyzed data extracted by hypothesis-blinded abstractors. The primary outcome was a composite of life-threatening arrhythmia, inpatient ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, cardiac or respiratory arrest, or death during hospitalization. Of the 45,416 encounters, 11,230 met criteria for inclusion. Mean patient age was 58.0 years. Of the 11 230 encounters, 44.83% of patients arrived by ambulance and 55.00% of patients were women. Relevant history included hypertension in 46.00%, diabetes mellitus in 19.72%, and myocardial infarction in 13.16%. The primary end point occurred in 20 of the 11 230 patients (0.18% [95% CI, 0.11%-0.27%]). After excluding patients with abnormal vital signs, electrocardiographic ischemia, left bundle branch block, or a pacemaker rhythm, we identified a primary end point event in 4 of 7266 patients (0.06% [95% CI, 0.02%-0.14%]). Of these events, 2 were noncardiac and 2 were possibly iatrogenic. In adult patients with chest pain admitted with 2 negative findings for serial biomarkers, nonconcerning vital signs, and nonischemic electrocardiographic findings, short-term clinically relevant adverse cardiac events were rare and commonly iatrogenic, suggesting that routine inpatient admission may not be a beneficial strategy for this group.

Evaluation of the Navys Sea/Shore Flow Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Std. Z39.18 i Abstract CNA developed an independent Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate and assess the effect of...a more steady manning level, but the variability remains, even if the system is optimized. In building a Discrete -Event Simulation model, we...steady-state model. In FY 2014, CNA developed a Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate the impact of sea/shore flow policy (the DES-SSF model

Spiking neural network simulation: memory-optimal synaptic event scheduling.

PubMed

Stewart, Robert D; Gurney, Kevin N

2011-06-01

Spiking neural network simulations incorporating variable transmission delays require synaptic events to be scheduled prior to delivery. Conventional methods have memory requirements that scale with the total number of synapses in a network. We introduce novel scheduling algorithms for both discrete and continuous event delivery, where the memory requirement scales instead with the number of neurons. Superior algorithmic performance is demonstrated using large-scale, benchmarking network simulations.

Crisis of Japanese Vascular Flora Shown By Quantifying Extinction Risks for 1618 Taxa

PubMed Central

Kadoya, Taku; Takenaka, Akio; Ishihama, Fumiko; Fujita, Taku; Ogawa, Makoto; Katsuyama, Teruo; Kadono, Yasuro; Kawakubo, Nobumitsu; Serizawa, Shunsuke; Takahashi, Hideki; Takamiya, Masayuki; Fujii, Shinji; Matsuda, Hiroyuki; Muneda, Kazuo; Yokota, Masatsugu; Yonekura, Koji; Yahara, Tetsukazu

2014-01-01

Although many people have expressed alarm that we are witnessing a mass extinction, few projections have been quantified, owing to limited availability of time-series data on threatened organisms, especially plants. To quantify the risk of extinction, we need to monitor changes in population size over time for as many species as possible. Here, we present the world's first quantitative projection of plant species loss at a national level, with stochastic simulations based on the results of population censuses of 1618 threatened plant taxa in 3574 map cells of ca. 100 km2. More than 500 lay botanists helped monitor those taxa in 1994–1995 and in 2003–2004. We projected that between 370 and 561 vascular plant taxa will go extinct in Japan during the next century if past trends of population decline continue. This extinction rate is approximately two to three times the global rate. Using time-series data, we show that existing national protected areas (PAs) covering ca. 7% of Japan will not adequately prevent population declines: even core PAs can protect at best <60% of local populations from decline. Thus, the Aichi Biodiversity Target to expand PAs to 17% of land (and inland water) areas, as committed to by many national governments, is not enough: only 29.2% of currently threatened species will become non-threatened under the assumption that probability of protection success by PAs is 0.5, which our assessment shows is realistic. In countries where volunteers can be organized to monitor threatened taxa, censuses using our method should be able to quantify how fast we are losing species and to assess how effective current conservation measures such as PAs are in preventing species extinction. PMID:24922311

Foreign body aspiration in adult airways: therapeutic approach

PubMed Central

Hewlett, Justin C.; Rickman, Otis B.; Lentz, Robert J.; Prakash, Udaya B.

2017-01-01

Tracheobronchial foreign body (FB) aspiration is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening event in adults. Symptoms typically consist of a choking event followed by cough and dyspnea, however, these findings are inconsistent and symptoms may mimic more chronic lung diseases such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Chest radiography and computed tomography can provide information regarding the location and characteristics of foreign bodies and aid in diagnosis. Bronchoscopy remains the gold standard for diagnosis and management of FB aspiration. The authors describe the typical clinical presentation, diagnostic evaluation, and bronchoscopic management of foreign bodies in adult airways with a focus on bronchoscopic techniques and potential complications of FB extraction. PMID:29221325

Sex differences in event-related risk for major depression.

PubMed

Maciejewski, P K; Prigerson, H G; Mazure, C M

2001-05-01

This study sought to determine if women are more likely than men to experience an episode of major depression in response to stressful life events. Sex differences in event-related risk for depression were examined by means of secondary analyses employing data from the Americans' Changing Lives study. The occurrence and time of occurrence of depression onset and instances of stressful life events within a 12-month period preceding a structured interview were documented in a community-based sample of 1024 men and 1800 women. Survival analytical techniques were used to examine sex differences in risk for depression associated with generic and specific stressful life events. Women were approximately three times more likely than men to experience major depression in response to any stressful life event. Women and men did not differ in risk for depression associated with the death of a spouse or child, events affecting their relationship to a spouse/partner (divorce and marital/love problems) or events corresponding to acute financial or legal difficulties. Women were at elevated risk for depression associated with more distant interpersonal losses (death of a close friend or relative) and other types of events (change of residence, physical attack, or life-threatening illness/injury). Stressful life events overall, with some exceptions among specific event types, pose a greater risk for depression among women compared to men.

Manual for the Jet Event and Background Simulation Library(JEBSimLib)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heinz, Matthias; Soltz, Ron; Angerami, Aaron

Jets are the collimated streams of particles resulting from hard scattering in the initial state of high-energy collisions. In heavy-ion collisions, jets interact with the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) before freezeout, providing a probe into the internal structure and properties of the QGP. In order to study jets, background must be subtracted from the measured event, potentially introducing a bias. We aim to understand and quantify this subtraction bias. PYTHIA, a library to simulate pure jet events, is used to simulate a model for a signature with one pure jet (a photon) and one quenched jet, where all quenched particle momentamore » are reduced by a user-de ned constant fraction. Background for the event is simulated using multiplicity values generated by the TRENTO initial state model of heavy-ion collisions fed into a thermal model consisting of a 3-dimensional Boltzmann distribution for particle types and momenta. Data from the simulated events is used to train a statistical model, which computes a posterior distribution of the quench factor for a data set. The model was tested rst on pure jet events and then on full events including the background. This model will allow for a quantitative determination of biases induced by various methods of background subtraction.« less

Manual for the Jet Event and Background Simulation Library

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heinz, M.; Soltz, R.; Angerami, A.

Jets are the collimated streams of particles resulting from hard scattering in the initial state of high-energy collisions. In heavy-ion collisions, jets interact with the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) before freezeout, providing a probe into the internal structure and properties of the QGP. In order to study jets, background must be subtracted from the measured event, potentially introducing a bias. We aim to understand and quantify this subtraction bias. PYTHIA, a library to simulate pure jet events, is used to simulate a model for a signature with one pure jet (a photon) and one quenched jet, where all quenched particle momentamore » are reduced by a user-de ned constant fraction. Background for the event is simulated using multiplicity values generated by the TRENTO initial state model of heavy-ion collisions fed into a thermal model consisting of a 3-dimensional Boltzmann distribution for particle types and momenta. Data from the simulated events is used to train a statistical model, which computes a posterior distribution of the quench factor for a data set. The model was tested rst on pure jet events and then on full events including the background. This model will allow for a quantitative determination of biases induced by various methods of background subtraction.« less

Event Detection and Sub-state Discovery from Bio-molecular Simulations Using Higher-Order Statistics: Application To Enzyme Adenylate Kinase

PubMed Central

Ramanathan, Arvind; Savol, Andrej J.; Agarwal, Pratul K.; Chennubhotla, Chakra S.

2012-01-01

Biomolecular simulations at milli-second and longer timescales can provide vital insights into functional mechanisms. Since post-simulation analyses of such large trajectory data-sets can be a limiting factor in obtaining biological insights, there is an emerging need to identify key dynamical events and relating these events to the biological function online, that is, as simulations are progressing. Recently, we have introduced a novel computational technique, quasi-anharmonic analysis (QAA) (PLoS One 6(1): e15827), for partitioning the conformational landscape into a hierarchy of functionally relevant sub-states. The unique capabilities of QAA are enabled by exploiting anharmonicity in the form of fourth-order statistics for characterizing atomic fluctuations. In this paper, we extend QAA for analyzing long time-scale simulations online. In particular, we present HOST4MD - a higher-order statistical toolbox for molecular dynamics simulations, which (1) identifies key dynamical events as simulations are in progress, (2) explores potential sub-states and (3) identifies conformational transitions that enable the protein to access those sub-states. We demonstrate HOST4MD on micro-second time-scale simulations of the enzyme adenylate kinase in its apo state. HOST4MD identifies several conformational events in these simulations, revealing how the intrinsic coupling between the three sub-domains (LID, CORE and NMP) changes during the simulations. Further, it also identifies an inherent asymmetry in the opening/closing of the two binding sites. We anticipate HOST4MD will provide a powerful and extensible framework for detecting biophysically relevant conformational coordinates from long time-scale simulations. PMID:22733562

Pump Thrombosis following HeartMate II Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation in a Patient with Aspirin and Plavix Resistance.

PubMed

Ghodsizad, Ali; Badiye, A; Zeriouh, M; Pae, W; Koerner, M M; Loebe, M

2016-12-14

Despite advances in pump technology, thromboembolic events and pump thrombosis are potentially life-threatening complications in patients with continuous flow ventricular assist devices. Here we describe a patient with pump thrombosis following LVAD HeartMate II implantation presenting with Aspirin and Plavix resistance and signs of acute hemolysis as manifested by high LDH, changing pump power, pulse index and reduced pump flows.

Event Classification and Identification Based on the Characteristic Ellipsoid of Phasor Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Jian; Diao, Ruisheng; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-09-23

In this paper, a method to classify and identify power system events based on the characteristic ellipsoid of phasor measurement is presented. The decision tree technique is used to perform the event classification and identification. Event types, event locations and clearance times are identified by decision trees based on the indices of the characteristic ellipsoid. A sufficiently large number of transient events were simulated on the New England 10-machine 39-bus system based on different system configurations. Transient simulations taking into account different event types, clearance times and various locations are conducted to simulate phasor measurement. Bus voltage magnitudes and recordedmore » reactive and active power flows are used to build the characteristic ellipsoid. The volume, eccentricity, center and projection of the longest axis in the parameter space coordinates of the characteristic ellipsoids are used to classify and identify events. Results demonstrate that the characteristic ellipsoid and the decision tree are capable to detect the event type, location, and clearance time with very high accuracy.« less

Evidence for coseismic subsidence events in a southern California coastal saltmarsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leeper, Robert; Rhodes, Brady P.; Kirby, Matthew E.; Scharer, Katherine M.; Carlin, Joseph A.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Avnaim-Katav, Simona; MacDonald, Glen M.; Starratt, Scott W.; Aranda, Angela

2017-01-01

Paleoenvironmental records from a southern California coastal saltmarsh reveal evidence for repeated late Holocene coseismic subsidence events. Field analysis of sediment gouge cores established discrete lithostratigraphic units extend across the wetland. Detailed sediment analyses reveal abrupt changes in lithology, percent total organic matter, grain size, and magnetic susceptibility. Microfossil analyses indicate that predominantly freshwater deposits bury relic intertidal deposits at three distinct depths. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the three burial events occurred in the last 2000 calendar years. Two of the three events are contemporaneous with large-magnitude paleoearthquakes along the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault system. From these data, we infer that during large magnitude earthquakes a step-over along the fault zone results in the vertical displacement of an approximately 5-km2 area that is consistent with the footprint of an estuary identified in pre-development maps. These findings provide insight on the evolution of the saltmarsh, coseismic deformation and earthquake recurrence in a wide area of southern California, and sensitive habitat already threatened by eustatic sea level rise.

Threat of death and autobiographical memory: a study of passengers from Flight AT236.

PubMed

McKinnon, Margaret C; Palombo, Daniela J; Nazarov, Anthony; Kumar, Namita; Khuu, Wayne; Levine, Brian

2015-06-01

We investigated autobiographical memory in a group of passengers onboard a trans-Atlantic flight that nearly ditched at sea. The consistency of traumatic exposure across passengers, some of whom developed post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), provided a unique opportunity to assess verified memory for life-threatening trauma. Using the Autobiographical Interview, which separates episodic from non-episodic details, passengers and healthy controls (HCs) recalled three events: the airline disaster (or a highly negative event for HCs), the September 11, 2001 attacks, and a non-emotional event. All passengers showed robust mnemonic enhancement for episodic details of the airline disaster. Although neither richness nor accuracy of traumatic recollection was related to PTSD, production of non-episodic details for traumatic and non-traumatic events was elevated in PTSD passengers. These findings indicate a robust mnemonic enhancement for trauma that is not specific to PTSD. Rather, PTSD is associated with altered cognitive control operations that affect autobiographical memory in general.

Hand-assisted laparoscopic sigmoid colectomy skills acquisition: augmented reality simulator versus human cadaver training models.

PubMed

Leblanc, Fabien; Senagore, Anthony J; Ellis, Clyde N; Champagne, Bradley J; Augestad, Knut M; Neary, Paul C; Delaney, Conor P

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare a simulator with the human cadaver model for hand-assisted laparoscopic colorectal skills acquisition training. An observational prospective comparative study was conducted to compare the laparoscopic surgery training models. The study took place during the laparoscopic colectomy training course performed at the annual scientific meeting of the American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons. Thirty four practicing surgeons performed hand-assisted laparoscopic sigmoid colectomy on human cadavers (n = 7) and on an augmented reality simulator (n = 27). Prior laparoscopic colorectal experience was assessed. Trainers and trainees completed independently objective structured assessment forms. Training models were compared by trainees' technical skills scores, events scores, and satisfaction. Prior laparoscopic experience was similar in both surgeon groups. Generic and specific skills scores were similar on both training models. Generic events scores were significantly better on the cadaver model. The 2 most frequent generic events occurring on the simulator were poor hand-eye coordination and inefficient use of retraction. Specific events were scored better on the simulator and reached the significance limit (p = 0.051) for trainers. The specific events occurring on the cadaver were intestinal perforation and left ureter identification difficulties. Overall satisfaction was better for the cadaver than for the simulator model (p = 0.009). With regard to skills scores, the augmented reality simulator had adequate qualities for the hand-assisted laparoscopic colectomy training. Nevertheless, events scores highlighted weaknesses of the anatomical replication on the simulator. Although improvements likely will be required to incorporate the simulator more routinely into the colorectal training, it may be useful in its current form for more junior trainees or those early on their learning curve. Copyright 2010 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Written threat: Electrophysiological evidence for an attention bias to affective words in social anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Wabnitz, Pascal; Martens, Ulla; Neuner, Frank

2016-01-01

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is associated with heightened sensitivity to threat cues, typically represented by emotional facial expressions. To examine if this bias can be transferred to a general hypersensitivity or whether it is specific to disorder relevant cues, we investigated electrophysiological correlates of emotional word processing (alpha activity and event-related potentials) in 20 healthy participants and 20 participants with SAD. The experimental task was a silent reading of neutral, positive, physically threatening and socially threatening words (the latter were abusive swear words) while responding to a randomly presented dot. Subsequently, all participants were asked to recall as many words as possible during an unexpected recall test. Participants with SAD showed blunted sensory processing followed by a rapid processing of emotional words during early stages (early posterior negativity - EPN). At later stages, all participants showed enhanced processing of negative (physically and socially threatening) compared to neutral and positive words (N400). Moreover, at later processing stages alpha activity was increased specifically for negative words in participants with SAD but not in healthy controls. Recall of emotional words for all subjects was best for socially threatening words, followed by negative and positive words irrespective of social anxiety. The present findings indicate that SAD is associated with abnormalities in emotional word processing characterised by early hypervigilance to emotional cues followed by cognitive avoidance at later processing stages. Most importantly, the specificity of these attentional biases seems to change as a function of time with a general emotional bias at early and a more specific bias at later processing stages.

Conceptual Modeling of a Quantum Key Distribution Simulation Framework Using the Discrete Event System Specification

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-18

and full/scale experimental verifications towards ground/ satellite quantum key distribution0 Oat Qhotonics 4235>9+7,=5;9!អ \\58^ Zin K. Dao Z. Miu T...Conceptual Modeling of a Quantum Key Distribution Simulation Framework Using the Discrete Event System Specification DISSERTATION Jeffrey D. Morris... QUANTUM KEY DISTRIBUTION SIMULATION FRAMEWORK USING THE DISCRETE EVENT SYSTEM SPECIFICATION DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty Department of Systems

Evaluation of the Navys Sea/Shore Flow Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

CNA developed an independent Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate and assess the effect of alternative sea/shore flow policies. In this study...remains, even if the system is optimized. In building a Discrete -Event Simulation model, we discovered key factors that should be included in the... Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate the impact of sea/shore flow policy (the DES-SSF model) and compared the results with the SSFM for one

Tsunami impact to Washington and northern Oregon from segment ruptures on the southern Cascadia subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Priest, George R.; Zhang, Yinglong; Witter, Robert C.; Wang, Kelin; Goldfinger, Chris; Stimely, Laura

2014-01-01

This paper explores the size and arrival of tsunamis in Oregon and Washington from the most likely partial ruptures of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in order to determine (1) how quickly tsunami height declines away from sources, (2) evacuation time before significant inundation, and (3) extent of felt shaking that would trigger evacuation. According to interpretations of offshore turbidite deposits, the most frequent partial ruptures are of the southern CSZ. Combined recurrence of ruptures extending ~490 km from Cape Mendocino, California, to Waldport, Oregon (segment C) and ~320 km from Cape Mendocino to Cape Blanco, Oregon (segment D), is ~530 years. This recurrence is similar to frequency of full-margin ruptures on the CSZ inferred from paleoseismic data and to frequency of the largest distant tsunami sources threatening Washington and Oregon, ~Mw 9.2 earthquakes from the Gulf of Alaska. Simulated segment C and D ruptures produce relatively low-amplitude tsunamis north of source areas, even for extreme (20 m) peak slip on segment C. More than ~70 km north of segments C and D, the first tsunami arrival at the 10-m water depth has an amplitude of <1.9 m. The largest waves are trapped edge waves with amplitude ≤4.2 m that arrive ≥2 h after the earthquake. MM V–VI shaking could trigger evacuation of educated populaces as far north as Newport, Oregon for segment D events and Grays Harbor, Washington for segment C events. The NOAA and local warning systems will be the only warning at greater distances from sources.

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams

PubMed Central

Jaeger, Kristin L.; Olden, Julian D.; Pelland, Noel A.

2014-01-01

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6–9% over the course of a year and up to 12–18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna. PMID:25136090

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams.

PubMed

Jaeger, Kristin L; Olden, Julian D; Pelland, Noel A

2014-09-23

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6-9% over the course of a year and up to 12-18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.

A Simbol-X Event Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puccetti, S.; Fiore, F.; Giommi, P.

2009-05-01

The ASI Science Data Center (ASDC) has developed an X-ray event simulator to support users (and team members) in simulation of data taken with the two cameras on board the Simbol-X X-Ray Telescope. The Simbol-X simulator is very fast and flexible, compared to ray-tracing simulator. These properties make our simulator advantageous to support the user in planning proposals and comparing real data with the theoretical expectations and for a quick detection of unexpected features. We present here the simulator outline and a few examples of simulated data.

Consistent simulation of nonresonant diphoton production in hadron collisions including associated jet production up to two jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odaka, Shigeru; Kurihara, Yoshimasa

2016-12-01

An event generator for diphoton (γ γ ) production in hadron collisions that includes associated jet production up to two jets has been developed using a subtraction method based on the limited leading-log subtraction. The parton shower (PS) simulation to restore the subtracted divergent components involves both quantum electrodynamic (QED) and quantum chromodynamic radiation, and QED radiation at very small Q2 is simulated by referring to a fragmentation function (FF). The PS/FF simulation has the ability to enforce the radiation of a given number of energetic photons. The generated events can be fed to PYTHIA to obtain particle (hadron) level event information, which enables us to perform realistic simulations of photon isolation and hadron-jet reconstruction. The simulated events, in which the loop-mediated g g →γ γ process is involved, reasonably reproduce the diphoton kinematics measured at the LHC. Using the developed simulation, we found that the two-jet processes significantly contribute to diphoton production. A large two-jet contribution can be considered as a common feature in electroweak-boson production in hadron collisions although the reason is yet to be understood. Discussion concerning the treatment of the underlying events in photon isolation is necessary for future higher precision measurements.

Using landscape genetics simulations for planting blister rust resistant whitebark pine in the US northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Erin L. Landguth; Zachary A. Holden; Mary F. Mahalovich; Samuel A. Cushman

2017-01-01

Recent population declines to the high elevation western North America foundation species whitebark pine, have been driven by the synergistic effects of the invasive blister rust pathogen, mountain pine beetle (MPB), fire exclusion, and climate change. This has led to consideration for listing whitebark pine (WBP) as a threatened or endangered species under the...

Teaching about Genocide in a New Millennium

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, James G.

2007-01-01

The "Darfur is Dying" website was the winning entry of a contest called Darfur Digital Activist, launched by MTV's 24-hour college network (mtvU). The site describes the winning game as "a narrative-based simulation where the user negotiates forces that threaten the survival of his or her refugee camp. It offers a faint glimpse of what it is like…

Simulated effects of sulfur deposition on nutrient cycling in class I wilderness areas

Treesearch

Katherine J. Elliott; James M. Vose; Jennifer D. Knoepp; Dale W. Johnson; William T. Swank; William Jackson

2008-01-01

As a consequence of human land use, population growth, and industrialization, wilderness and other natural areas can be threatened by air pollution, climate change, and exotic diseases or pests. Air pollution in the form of acidic deposition is comprised of sulfuric and nitric acids and ammonium derived from emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia....

Simulating Alternative Approaches to Addressing Fiscal Resource Tensions and Quality in U.S. Public Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roebber, Paul J.; Meadows, G. Richard

2012-01-01

Severe fiscal tensions threaten U.S. public higher education. Many policy solutions have been suggested, but it is difficult to subject these qualitative ideas to rigorous empirical evaluation. In this work, we employ an agent-based model of a representative state-funded public university system (including a flagship campus, an urban campus, and…

Energy Security under Conditions of Uncertainty: Simulating a Comparative Bureaucratic Politics Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garrison, Jean A.; Redd, Steven B.; Carter, Ralph G.

2010-01-01

For those who must import oil to maintain their economies and quality of life, any disruption in the delivery of imported oil is a highly threatening prospect. How would U.S. policymakers react to such a threat in the contemporary era? We examine the potential policymaking roles and impacts of bureaucratic actors operating at the intersection of…

Combining inferences from models of capture efficiency, detectability, and suitable habitat to classify landscapes for conservation of threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.; Dunham, J.B.

2003-01-01

Effective conservation efforts for at-risk species require knowledge of the locations of existing populations. Species presence can be estimated directly by conducting field-sampling surveys or alternatively by developing predictive models. Direct surveys can be expensive and inefficient, particularly for rare and difficult-to-sample species, and models of species presence may produce biased predictions. We present a Bayesian approach that combines sampling and model-based inferences for estimating species presence. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of this approach were compared to those of sampling surveys and predictive models for estimating the presence of the threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) via simulation with existing models and empirical sampling data. Simulations indicated that a sampling-only approach would be the most effective and would result in the lowest presence and absence misclassification error rates for three thresholds of detection probability. When sampling effort was considered, however, the combined approach resulted in the lowest error rates per unit of sampling effort. Hence, lower probability-of-detection thresholds can be specified with the combined approach, resulting in lower misclassification error rates and improved cost-effectiveness.

The development of a simulation model of the treatment of coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Cooper, Keith; Davies, Ruth; Roderick, Paul; Chase, Debbie; Raftery, James

2002-11-01

A discrete event simulation models the progress of patients who have had a coronary event, through their treatment pathways and subsequent coronary events. The main risk factors in the model are age, sex, history of previous events and the extent of the coronary vessel disease. The model parameters are based on data collected from epidemiological studies of incidence and prognosis, efficacy studies. national surveys and treatment audits. The simulation results were validated against different sources of data. The initial results show that increasing revascularisation has considerable implications for resource use but has little impact on patient mortality.

An agent-based stochastic Occupancy Simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yixing; Hong, Tianzhen; Luo, Xuan

Occupancy has significant impacts on building performance. However, in current building performance simulation programs, occupancy inputs are static and lack diversity, contributing to discrepancies between the simulated and actual building performance. This work presents an Occupancy Simulator that simulates the stochastic behavior of occupant presence and movement in buildings, capturing the spatial and temporal occupancy diversity. Each occupant and each space in the building are explicitly simulated as an agent with their profiles of stochastic behaviors. The occupancy behaviors are represented with three types of models: (1) the status transition events (e.g., first arrival in office) simulated with probability distributionmore » model, (2) the random moving events (e.g., from one office to another) simulated with a homogeneous Markov chain model, and (3) the meeting events simulated with a new stochastic model. A hierarchical data model was developed for the Occupancy Simulator, which reduces the amount of data input by using the concepts of occupant types and space types. Finally, a case study of a small office building is presented to demonstrate the use of the Simulator to generate detailed annual sub-hourly occupant schedules for individual spaces and the whole building. The Simulator is a web application freely available to the public and capable of performing a detailed stochastic simulation of occupant presence and movement in buildings. Future work includes enhancements in the meeting event model, consideration of personal absent days, verification and validation of the simulated occupancy results, and expansion for use with residential buildings.« less

An agent-based stochastic Occupancy Simulator

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yixing; Hong, Tianzhen; Luo, Xuan

2017-06-01

Occupancy has significant impacts on building performance. However, in current building performance simulation programs, occupancy inputs are static and lack diversity, contributing to discrepancies between the simulated and actual building performance. This work presents an Occupancy Simulator that simulates the stochastic behavior of occupant presence and movement in buildings, capturing the spatial and temporal occupancy diversity. Each occupant and each space in the building are explicitly simulated as an agent with their profiles of stochastic behaviors. The occupancy behaviors are represented with three types of models: (1) the status transition events (e.g., first arrival in office) simulated with probability distributionmore » model, (2) the random moving events (e.g., from one office to another) simulated with a homogeneous Markov chain model, and (3) the meeting events simulated with a new stochastic model. A hierarchical data model was developed for the Occupancy Simulator, which reduces the amount of data input by using the concepts of occupant types and space types. Finally, a case study of a small office building is presented to demonstrate the use of the Simulator to generate detailed annual sub-hourly occupant schedules for individual spaces and the whole building. The Simulator is a web application freely available to the public and capable of performing a detailed stochastic simulation of occupant presence and movement in buildings. Future work includes enhancements in the meeting event model, consideration of personal absent days, verification and validation of the simulated occupancy results, and expansion for use with residential buildings.« less

Gambling and Adverse Life Events Among Urban Adolescents

PubMed Central

Lee, Grace P.; Derevensky, Jeffrey L.; Ialongo, Nicholas S.; Martins, Silvia S.

2011-01-01

This study explored the cross sectional association between adverse life events and gambling in a sample of 515 urban adolescents (average age 17, 55% male, 88% African American). Approximately half of the sample had gambled in the past year (51%); 78% of the gamblers gambled monthly and 39% had a gambling-related problem. On the other hand, 88% of the sample had experienced at least one life event in the past year, and those experiencing events tended to live in more disadvantaged neighborhoods. The mere acknowledgement of experiencing a stressful life event in the past year (yes/no) was not associated with an increase in odds of being a gambler, with gambling more frequently, or with having a gambling problem. However, when the context of the event was considered, an association was found between directly experiencing threatening and deviant/violent types of events and frequent gambling (OR > 2). Additionally, the probability of being a gambler increased as the number of events experienced increased (aOR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.13, P = 0.013), but problems among gamblers were not associated with the number of events experienced (aOR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.92, 1.11, P = 0.876). During adolescence, life events appear to be connected more with the frequency of gambling rather than with problems related to gambling. PMID:21614529

Victimization and PTSD-like states in an Icelandic youth probability sample.

PubMed

Bödvarsdóttir, Iris; Elklit, Ask

2007-10-01

Although adolescence in many cases is a period of rebellion and experimentation with new behaviors and roles, the exposure of adolescents to life-threatening and violent events has rarely been investigated in national probability studies using a broad range of events. In an Icelandic national representative sample of 206 9th-grade students (mean = 14.5 years), the prevalence of 20 potentially traumatic events and negative life events was reported, along with the psychological impact of these events. Seventy-four percent of the girls and 79 percent of the boys were exposed to at least one event. The most common events were the death of a family member, threat of violence, and traffic accidents. The estimated lifetime prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder-like states (PTSD; DSM-IV, APA, 1994 1) was 16 percent, whereas another 12 percent reached a sub-clinical level of PTSD-like states (missing the full diagnosis with one symptom). Following exposure, girls suffered from PTSD-like states almost twice as often as boys. Gender, mothers' education, and single-parenthood were associated with specific events. The odds ratios and 95% CI for PTSD-like states given a specific event are reported. Being exposed to multiple potentially traumatic events was associated with an increase in PTSD-like states. The findings indicate substantial mental health problems in adolescents that are associated with various types of potentially traumatic exposure.

Considering context: reliable entity networks through contextual relationship extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, Peter; Hawes, Timothy; Hansen, Nichole; Nolan, James J.

2016-05-01

Existing information extraction techniques can only partially address the problem of exploiting unreadable-large amounts text. When discussion of events and relationships is limited to simple, past-tense, factual descriptions of events, current NLP-based systems can identify events and relationships and extract a limited amount of additional information. But the simple subset of available information that existing tools can extract from text is only useful to a small set of users and problems. Automated systems need to find and separate information based on what is threatened or planned to occur, has occurred in the past, or could potentially occur. We address the problem of advanced event and relationship extraction with our event and relationship attribute recognition system, which labels generic, planned, recurring, and potential events. The approach is based on a combination of new machine learning methods, novel linguistic features, and crowd-sourced labeling. The attribute labeler closes the gap between structured event and relationship models and the complicated and nuanced language that people use to describe them. Our operational-quality event and relationship attribute labeler enables Warfighters and analysts to more thoroughly exploit information in unstructured text. This is made possible through 1) More precise event and relationship interpretation, 2) More detailed information about extracted events and relationships, and 3) More reliable and informative entity networks that acknowledge the different attributes of entity-entity relationships.

Study of the quasi-tragic snow-avalanche event occurred on August 2009 at Aconcagua Provincial Park, Mendoza, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, J. C.; Casteller, A.; Martínez, H. H.; Norte, F. A.; Simonelli, S. C.

2010-03-01

Snow avalanches commonly threaten people and infrastructure in mountainous areas worldwide. Winter precipitation events in the Central Andes are caused by the interaction of the atmospheric general circulation and their steep orography. Almost every winter season snow storms and winds cause the blockage of routes and lead to the snowpack conditions that generate avalanche events. The amount of winter snow accumulation is highly variable and is one of the most important factors for assessing the impacts of climate change not only on the water availability, but also to plan future mitigation measures to reduce the avalanche hazard. The authors have conducted studies on snow avalanches that regularly affect the international route linking Mendoza (Argentina) with Santiago de Chile (Chile) but none of them was done at the Aconcagua Provincial Park The park is nearby this route, about 13 km kilometers east from the international border, which in this sector of the Andes coincides with the continental divide. On the night of 17 August 2009, seven people were caught by an avalanche that hit the Aconcagua Park rangers refuge (32° 48' 40'' S, 69° 56' 33'' W; 2950 masl).This paper describes the meteorological and snow precipitation conditions originating the event. On August 14 th. the synoptic surface and upper-air conditions from NCEP reanalysis were those associated with a severe Zonda wind occurrence in the region, that is: a 500 hPa level trough, a deep low-pressure surface system located over the Pacific Ocean close to the Chilean coast, approximately over 48 ° S and 80° W, and a jet stream at middle upper-air levels. The avalanche event occurred during a new and very heavy snowfall a while more than two days later of these extreme episodes. The topographical characteristics of the avalanche path, the snow storm intensity and the snow accumulation on the avalanche starting zone allowed the authors to simulate the avalanche flow. Snow storm intensity and snow accumulation data from Los Penitentes ski resort (about 10 km east of the Park entrance) were used as input data for the avalanche modeling. However, an additional snow mass was considered due to the fact that the starting zone is in a leeward slope. Vertical aerial photographs (1974), topographic profiles, a DEM generated from ASTER images and the snow accumulation data enabled the authors to simulate the avalanche flow using a bi-dimensional and a three-dimensional avalanche dynamics model. Our results indicate that the studied avalanche event was originated by two main factors. Firstly, prior to the studied event, the snowpack had gone through several cycles of high and low temperatures, thus producing a highly metamorphosed snowpack that facilitated the slide of the new snow. Secondly, the high intensity of the new snow precipitation did not allow for its good settlement. This study is the first step towards an avalanche hazard map of Aconcagua Park and will serve as a basis for advising the Park authorities in regards to the definition of the location of a new refuge and the necessary building structure requirements to be fulfilled.

Neural Correlates of Attentional Processing of Threat in Youth with and without Anxiety Disorders.

PubMed

Bechor, Michele; Ramos, Michelle L; Crowley, Michael J; Silverman, Wendy K; Pettit, Jeremy W; Reeb-Sutherland, Bethany C

2018-04-02

Late-stage attentional processing of threatening stimuli, quantified through event-related potentials (ERPs), differentiates youth with and without anxiety disorders. It is unknown whether early-stage attentional processing of threatening stimuli differentiates these groups. Examining both early and late stage attentional processes in youth may advance knowledge and enhance efforts to identify biomarkers for translational prevention and treatment research. Twenty-one youth with primary DSM-IV-TR anxiety disorders (10 males, ages 8-15 years) and 21 typically developing Controls (15 males, ages 8-16 years) completed a dot probe task while electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded, and ERPs were examined. Youth with anxiety disorders showed significantly larger (more positive) P1 amplitudes for threatening stimuli than for neutral stimuli, and Controls showed the opposite pattern. Youth with anxiety showed larger (more negative) N170 amplitudes compared with Controls. Controls showed significantly larger (more positive) P2 and P3 amplitudes, regardless of stimuli valence, compared with youth with anxiety disorders. ERPs observed during the dot probe task indicate youth with anxiety disorders display distinct neural processing during early stage attentional orienting and processing of faces; this was not the case for Controls. Such results suggest these ERP components may have potential as biomarkers of anxiety disorders in youth.

Aggression differentially modulates brain responses to fearful and angry faces: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Lu, Hui; Wang, Yu; Xu, Shuang; Wang, Yifeng; Zhang, Ruiping; Li, Tsingan

2015-08-19

Aggression is reported to modulate neural responses to the threatening information. However, whether aggression can modulate neural response to different kinds of threatening facial expressions (angry and fearful expressions) remains unknown. Thus, event-related potentials were measured in individuals (13 high aggressive, 12 low aggressive) exposed to neutral, angry, and fearful facial expressions while performing a frame-distinguishing task, irrespective of the emotional valence of the expressions. Highly aggressive participants showed no distinct neural responses between the three facial expressions. In addition, compared with individuals with low aggression, highly aggressive individuals showed a decreased frontocentral response to fearful faces within 250-300 ms and to angry faces within 400-500 ms of exposure. These results indicate that fearful faces represent a more threatening signal requiring a quick cognitive response during the early stage of facial processing, whereas angry faces elicit a stronger response during the later processing stage because of its eminent emotional significance. The present results represent the first known evidence that aggression is associated with different neural responses to fearful and angry faces. By exploring the distinct temporal responses to fearful and angry faces modulated by aggression, this study more precisely characterizes the cognitive characteristics of aggressive individuals. Copyright © 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased attention but more efficient disengagement: neuroscientific evidence for defensive processing of threatening health information.

PubMed

Kessels, Loes T E; Ruiter, Robert A C; Jansma, Bernadette M

2010-07-01

Previous studies indicate that people respond defensively to threatening health information, especially when the information challenges self-relevant goals. The authors investigated whether reduced acceptance of self-relevant health risk information is already visible in early attention processes, that is, attention disengagement processes. In a randomized, controlled trial with 29 smoking and nonsmoking students, a variant of Posner's cueing task was used in combination with the high-temporal resolution method of event-related brain potentials (ERPs). Reaction times and P300 ERP. Smokers showed lower P300 amplitudes in response to high- as opposed to low-threat invalid trials when moving their attention to a target in the opposite visual field, indicating more efficient attention disengagement processes. Furthermore, both smokers and nonsmokers showed increased P300 amplitudes in response to the presentation of high- as opposed to low-threat valid trials, indicating threat-induced attention-capturing processes. Reaction time measures did not support the ERP data, indicating that the ERP measure can be extremely informative to measure low-level attention biases in health communication. The findings provide the first neuroscientific support for the hypothesis that threatening health information causes more efficient disengagement among those for whom the health threat is self-relevant. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

A discrete event simulation tool to support and predict hospital and clinic staffing.

PubMed

DeRienzo, Christopher M; Shaw, Ryan J; Meanor, Phillip; Lada, Emily; Ferranti, Jeffrey; Tanaka, David

2017-06-01

We demonstrate how to develop a simulation tool to help healthcare managers and administrators predict and plan for staffing needs in a hospital neonatal intensive care unit using administrative data. We developed a discrete event simulation model of nursing staff needed in a neonatal intensive care unit and then validated the model against historical data. The process flow was translated into a discrete event simulation model. Results demonstrated that the model can be used to give a respectable estimate of annual admissions, transfers, and deaths based upon two different staffing levels. The discrete event simulation tool model can provide healthcare managers and administrators with (1) a valid method of modeling patient mix, patient acuity, staffing needs, and costs in the present state and (2) a forecast of how changes in a unit's staffing, referral patterns, or patient mix would affect a unit in a future state.

Requirements analysis for a hardware, discrete-event, simulation engine accelerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Paul J., Jr.

1991-12-01

An analysis of a general Discrete Event Simulation (DES), executing on the distributed architecture of an eight mode Intel PSC/2 hypercube, was performed. The most time consuming portions of the general DES algorithm were determined to be the functions associated with message passing of required simulation data between processing nodes of the hypercube architecture. A behavioral description, using the IEEE standard VHSIC Hardware Description and Design Language (VHDL), for a general DES hardware accelerator is presented. The behavioral description specifies the operational requirements for a DES coprocessor to augment the hypercube's execution of DES simulations. The DES coprocessor design implements the functions necessary to perform distributed discrete event simulations using a conservative time synchronization protocol.

The virtual-hand illusion: effects of impact and threat on perceived ownership and affective resonance

PubMed Central

Ma, Ke; Hommel, Bernhard

2013-01-01

The rubber hand illusion refers to the observation that participants perceive “body ownership” for a rubber hand if it moves, or is stroked in synchrony with the participant's real (covered) hand. Research indicates that events targeting artificial body parts can trigger affective responses (affective resonance) only with perceived body ownership, while neuroscientific findings suggest affective resonance irrespective of ownership (e.g., when observing other individuals under threat). We hypothesized that this may depend on the severity of the event. We first replicated previous findings that the rubber hand illusion can be extended to virtual hands—the virtual-hand illusion. We then tested whether hand ownership and affective resonance (assessed by galvanic skin conductance) are modulated by the experience of an event that either “impacted” (a ball hitting the hand) or “threatened” (a knife cutting the hand) the virtual hand. Ownership was stronger if the virtual hand moved synchronously with the participant's own hand, but this effect was independent from whether the hand was impacted or threatened. Affective resonance was mediated by ownership however: In the face of mere impact, participants showed more resonance in the synchronous condition (i.e., with perceived ownership) than in the asynchronous condition. In the face of threat, in turn, affective resonance was independent of synchronicity—participants were emotionally involved even if a threat was targeting a hand that they did not perceive as their own. Our findings suggest that perceived body ownership and affective responses to body-related impact or threat can be dissociated and are thus unlikely to represent the same underlying process. We argue that affective reactions to impact are produced in a top-down fashion if the impacted effector is assumed to be part of one's own body, whereas threatening events trigger affective responses more directly in a bottom-up fashion—irrespective of body ownership. PMID:24046762

Simulation of the Tsunami Resulting from the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake - Dynamic Rupture vs. Seismic Inversion Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2017-04-01

Simulations of historic tsunami events such as the 2004 Sumatra or the 2011 Tohoku event are usually initialized using earthquake sources resulting from inversion of seismic data. Also, other data from ocean buoys etc. is sometimes included in the derivation of the source model. The associated tsunami event can often be well simulated in this way, and the results show high correlation with measured data. However, it is unclear how the derived source model compares to the particular earthquake event. In this study we use the results from dynamic rupture simulations obtained with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-DG discretization solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. The tsunami model is based on a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme on triangular grids and features a robust wetting and drying scheme for the simulation of inundation events at the coast. Adaptive mesh refinement enables the efficient computation of large domains, while at the same time it allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy. The results are compared to measured data and results using earthquake sources based on inversion. With the approach of using the output of actual dynamic rupture simulations, we can estimate the influence of different earthquake parameters. Furthermore, the comparison to other source models enables a thorough comparison and validation of important tsunami parameters, such as the runup at the coast. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims at an improved understanding of the coupling between the earthquake and the generated tsunami event.

Modeling and Simulation with INS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Stephen D.; And Others

INS, the Integrated Network Simulation language, puts simulation modeling into a network framework and automatically performs such programming activities as placing the problem into a next event structure, coding events, collecting statistics, monitoring status, and formatting reports. To do this, INS provides a set of symbols (nodes and branches)…

SIGMA--A Graphical Approach to Teaching Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schruben, Lee W.

1992-01-01

SIGMA (Simulation Graphical Modeling and Analysis) is a computer graphics environment for building, testing, and experimenting with discrete event simulation models on personal computers. It uses symbolic representations (computer animation) to depict the logic of large, complex discrete event systems for easier understanding and has proven itself…

Hybrid Architectural Framework for C4ISR and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) to Support Sensor-Driven Model Synthesis in Real-World Scenarios

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

which utilizes FTA and then loads it into a DES engine to generate simulation results. .......44 Figure 21. This simulation architecture is...While Discrete Event Simulation ( DES ) can provide accurate time estimation and fast simulation speed, models utilizing it often suffer...C4ISR progress in MDW is developed in this research to demonstrate the feasibility of AEMF- DES and explore its potential. The simulation (MDSIM

Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.

PubMed

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric

2010-04-23

Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.

Order of events matter: comparing discrete models for optimal control of species augmentation.

PubMed

Bodine, Erin N; Gross, Louis J; Lenhart, Suzanne

2012-01-01

We investigate optimal timing of augmentation of an endangered/threatened species population in a target region by moving individuals from a reserve or captive population. This is formulated as a discrete-time optimal control problem in which augmentation occurs once per time period over a fixed number of time periods. The population model assumes the Allee effect growth functions in both target and reserve populations and the control objective is to maximize the target and reserve population sizes over the time horizon while accounting for costs of augmentation. Two possible orders of events are considered for different life histories of the species relative to augmentation time: move individuals either before or after population growth occurs. The control variable is the proportion of the reserve population to be moved to the target population. We develop solutions and illustrate numerical results which indicate circumstances for which optimal augmentation strategies depend upon the order of events.

Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Ainsworth, Tracy D; Heron, Scott F; Ortiz, Juan Carlos; Mumby, Peter J; Grech, Alana; Ogawa, Daisie; Eakin, C Mark; Leggat, William

2016-04-15

Coral bleaching events threaten the sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Here we show that bleaching events of the past three decades have been mitigated by induced thermal tolerance of reef-building corals, and this protective mechanism is likely to be lost under near-future climate change scenarios. We show that 75% of past thermal stress events have been characterized by a temperature trajectory that subjects corals to a protective, sub-bleaching stress, before reaching temperatures that cause bleaching. Such conditions confer thermal tolerance, decreasing coral cell mortality and symbiont loss during bleaching by over 50%. We find that near-future increases in local temperature of as little as 0.5°C result in this protective mechanism being lost, which may increase the rate of degradation of the GBR. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Event detection and sub-state discovery from biomolecular simulations using higher-order statistics: application to enzyme adenylate kinase.

PubMed

Ramanathan, Arvind; Savol, Andrej J; Agarwal, Pratul K; Chennubhotla, Chakra S

2012-11-01

Biomolecular simulations at millisecond and longer time-scales can provide vital insights into functional mechanisms. Because post-simulation analyses of such large trajectory datasets can be a limiting factor in obtaining biological insights, there is an emerging need to identify key dynamical events and relating these events to the biological function online, that is, as simulations are progressing. Recently, we have introduced a novel computational technique, quasi-anharmonic analysis (QAA) (Ramanathan et al., PLoS One 2011;6:e15827), for partitioning the conformational landscape into a hierarchy of functionally relevant sub-states. The unique capabilities of QAA are enabled by exploiting anharmonicity in the form of fourth-order statistics for characterizing atomic fluctuations. In this article, we extend QAA for analyzing long time-scale simulations online. In particular, we present HOST4MD--a higher-order statistical toolbox for molecular dynamics simulations, which (1) identifies key dynamical events as simulations are in progress, (2) explores potential sub-states, and (3) identifies conformational transitions that enable the protein to access those sub-states. We demonstrate HOST4MD on microsecond timescale simulations of the enzyme adenylate kinase in its apo state. HOST4MD identifies several conformational events in these simulations, revealing how the intrinsic coupling between the three subdomains (LID, CORE, and NMP) changes during the simulations. Further, it also identifies an inherent asymmetry in the opening/closing of the two binding sites. We anticipate that HOST4MD will provide a powerful and extensible framework for detecting biophysically relevant conformational coordinates from long time-scale simulations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sediment Dynamics Affecting the Threatened Santa Ana Sucker in the Highly-modified Santa Ana River and Inset Channel, Southern California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minear, J. T.; Wright, S. A.

2015-12-01

In this study, we investigate the sediment dynamics of the low-flow channel of the Santa Ana River that is formed by wastewater discharges and contains some of the last remaining habitat of the Santa Ana Sucker (Catostomus santaanae). The Santa Ana River is a highly-modified river draining the San Bernardino Mountains and Inland Empire metropolitan area east of Los Angeles. Home to over 4 million people, the watershed provides habitat for the federally-threatened Santa Ana Sucker, which presently reside within the mainstem Santa Ana River in a reach supported by year-round constant discharges from water treatment plants. The nearly constant low-flow wastewater discharges and infrequent runoff events create a small, approximately 8 m wide, inset channel within the approximately 300 m wide mainstem channel that is typically dry except for large flood flows. The sediment dynamics within the inset channel are characterized by constantly evolving bed substrate and sediment transport rates, and occasional channel avulsions. The sediment dynamics have large influence on the Sucker, which rely on coarse-substrate (gravel and cobble) for their food production. In WY 2013 through the present, we investigated the sediment dynamics of the inset channel using repeat bathymetric and substrate surveys, bedload sampling, and discharge measurements. We found two distinct phases of the inset channel behavior: 1. 'Reset' flows, where sediment-laden mainstem discharges from upstream runoff events result in sand deposition in the inset channel or avulse the inset channel onto previously dry riverbed; and 2. 'Winnowing' flows, whereby the sand within the inset channel is removed by clear-water low flows from the wastewater treatment plant discharges. Thus, in contrast to many regulated rivers where high flows are required to flush fine sediments from the bed (for example, downstream from dams), in the Santa Ana River the low flows from wastewater treatment plants serve as the flushing flows that gradually remove sand and expose the coarser substrate. In effect, the inset channel is analogous to a flume subject to periodic sediment loading events from upstream (runoff events) with long periods of negligible upstream sediment supply between the events (wastewater discharges).

New drugs, new toxicities: severe side effects of modern targeted and immunotherapy of cancer and their management.

PubMed

Kroschinsky, Frank; Stölzel, Friedrich; von Bonin, Simone; Beutel, Gernot; Kochanek, Matthias; Kiehl, Michael; Schellongowski, Peter

2017-04-14

Pharmacological and cellular treatment of cancer is changing dramatically with benefits for patient outcome and comfort, but also with new toxicity profiles. The majority of adverse events can be classified as mild or moderate, but severe and life-threatening complications requiring ICU admission also occur. This review will focus on pathophysiology, symptoms, and management of these events based on the available literature.While standard antineoplastic therapy is associated with immunosuppression and infections, some of the recent approaches induce overwhelming inflammation and autoimmunity. Cytokine-release syndrome (CRS) describes a complex of symptoms including fever, hypotension, and skin reactions as well as lab abnormalities. CRS may occur after the infusion of monoclonal or bispecific antibodies (MABs, BABs) targeting immune effectors and tumor cells and is a major concern in recipients of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) modified T lymphocytes as well. BAB and CAR T-cell treatment may also be compromised by central nervous system (CNS) toxicities such as encephalopathy, cerebellar alteration, disturbed consciousness, or seizures. While CRS is known to be induced by exceedingly high levels of inflammatory cytokines, the pathophysiology of CNS events is still unclear. Treatment with antibodies against inhibiting immune checkpoints can lead to immune-related adverse events (IRAEs); colitis, diarrhea, and endocrine disorders are often the cause for ICU admissions.Respiratory distress is the main reason for ICU treatment in cancer patients and is attributable to infectious agents in most cases. In addition, some of the new drugs are reported to cause non-infectious lung complications. While drug-induced interstitial pneumonitis was observed in a substantial number of patients treated with phosphoinositol-3-kinase inhibitors, IRAEs may also affect the lungs.Inhibitors of angiogenetic pathways have increased the antineoplastic portfolio. However, vessel formation is also essential for regeneration and tissue repair. Therefore, severe vascular side effects, including thromboembolic events, gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation, hypertension, and congestive heart failure, compromise antitumor efficacy.The limited knowledge of the pathophysiology and management of life-threatening complications relating to new cancer drugs presents a need to provide ICU staff, oncologists, and organ specialists with evidence-based algorithms.

Simulating Impacts of Disruptions to Liquid Fuels Infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Michael; Corbet, Thomas F.; Baker, Arnold B.

This report presents a methodology for estimating the impacts of events that damage or disrupt liquid fuels infrastructure. The impact of a disruption depends on which components of the infrastructure are damaged, the time required for repairs, and the position of the disrupted components in the fuels supply network. Impacts are estimated for seven stressing events in regions of the United States, which were selected to represent a range of disruption types. For most of these events the analysis is carried out using the National Transportation Fuels Model (NTFM) to simulate the system-level liquid fuels sector response. Results are presentedmore » for each event, and a brief cross comparison of event simulation results is provided.« less

PyRETIS: A well-done, medium-sized python library for rare events.

PubMed

Lervik, Anders; Riccardi, Enrico; van Erp, Titus S

2017-10-30

Transition path sampling techniques are becoming common approaches in the study of rare events at the molecular scale. More efficient methods, such as transition interface sampling (TIS) and replica exchange transition interface sampling (RETIS), allow the investigation of rare events, for example, chemical reactions and structural/morphological transitions, in a reasonable computational time. Here, we present PyRETIS, a Python library for performing TIS and RETIS simulations. PyRETIS directs molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in order to sample rare events with unbiased dynamics. PyRETIS is designed to be easily interfaced with any molecular simulation package and in the present release, it has been interfaced with GROMACS and CP2K, for classical and ab initio MD simulations, respectively. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Naveed; Brauch, Jennifer; Ahrens, Bodo

2014-05-01

So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine and warm core Mediterranean cyclones which exhibit some similarities with tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with them are a potential thread for highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. In this study we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (NEMO-1d) to simulate medicanes. The goal of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model to simulate these extreme events. For this purpose 11 historical medicane events are simulated by the atmosphere-only and the coupled models using different set-ups (horizontal grid-spacings: 0.44o, 0.22o, 0.088o; with/with-out spectral nudging). The results show that at high resolution the coupled model is not only able to simulate all medicane events but also improves the simulated track length, warm core, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to atmosphere-only simulations. In most of the cases the medicanes trajectories and structures are better represented in coupled simulations compared to atmosphere-only simulations. We conclude that the coupled model is a suitable tool for systemic and detailed study of historical medicane events and also for future projections.

A comparison of human cadaver and augmented reality simulator models for straight laparoscopic colorectal skills acquisition training.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Fabien; Champagne, Bradley J; Augestad, Knut M; Neary, Paul C; Senagore, Anthony J; Ellis, Clyde N; Delaney, Conor P

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the human cadaver model with an augmented reality simulator for straight laparoscopic colorectal skills acquisition. Thirty-five sigmoid colectomies were performed on a cadaver (n = 7) or an augmented reality simulator (n = 28) during a laparoscopic training course. Prior laparoscopic colorectal experience was assessed. Objective structured technical skills assessment forms were completed by trainers and trainees independently. Groups were compared according to technical skills and events scores and satisfaction with training model. Prior laparoscopic experience was similar in both groups. For trainers and trainees, technical skills scores were considerably better on the simulator than on the cadaver. For trainers, generic events score was also considerably better on the simulator than on the cadaver. The main generic event occurring on both models was errors in the use of retraction. The main specific event occurring on both models was bowel perforation. Global satisfaction was better for the cadaver than for the simulator model (p < 0.001). The human cadaver model was more difficult but better appreciated than the simulator for laparoscopic sigmoid colectomy training. Simulator training followed by cadaver training can appropriately integrate simulators into the learning curve and maintain the benefits of both training methodologies. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modelling and Simulation as a Recognizing Method in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoffa, Veronika

2004-01-01

Computer animation-simulation models of complex processes and events, which are the method of instruction, can be an effective didactic device. Gaining deeper knowledge about objects modelled helps to plan simulation experiments oriented on processes and events researched. Animation experiments realized on multimedia computers can aid easier…

New Perspectives on Long Run-out Rock Avalanches: A Dynamic Analysis of 20 Events in the Vaigat Strait, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamin, J.; Rosser, N. J.; Dunning, S.; Hardy, R. J.; Karim, K.; Szczucinski, W.; Norman, E. C.; Strzelecki, M.; Drewniak, M.

2014-12-01

Risk assessments of the threat posed by rock avalanches rely upon numerical modelling of potential run-out and spreading, and are contingent upon a thorough understanding of the flow dynamics inferred from deposits left by previous events. Few records exist of multiple rock avalanches with boundary conditions sufficiently consistent to develop a set of more generalised rules for behaviour across events. A unique cluster of 20 large (3 x 106 - 94 x 106 m3) rock avalanche deposits along the Vaigat Strait, West Greenland, offers a unique opportunity to model a large sample of adjacent events sourced from a stretch of coastal mountains of relatively uniform geology and structure. Our simulations of these events were performed using VolcFlow, a geophysical mass flow code developed to simulate volcanic debris avalanches. Rheological calibration of the model was performed using a well-constrained event at Paatuut (AD 2000). The best-fit simulation assumes a constant retarding stress with a collisional stress coefficient (T0 = 250 kPa, ξ = 0.01), and simulates run-out to within ±0.3% of that observed. Despite being widely used to simulate rock avalanche propagation, other models, that assume either a Coulomb frictional or a Voellmy rheology, failed to reproduce the observed event characteristics and deposit distribution at Paatuut. We applied this calibration to 19 other events, simulating rock avalanche motion across 3D terrain of varying levels of complexity. Our findings illustrate the utility and sensitivity of modelling a single rock avalanche satisfactorily as a function of rheology, alongside the validity of applying the same parameters elsewhere, even within similar boundary conditions. VolcFlow can plausibly account for the observed morphology of a series of deposits emplaced by events of different types, although its performance is sensitive to a range of topographic and geometric factors. These exercises show encouraging results in the model's ability to simulate a series of events using a single set of parameters obtained by back-analysis of the Paatuut event alone. The results also hold important implications for our process understanding of rock avalanches in confined fjord settings, where correctly modelling material flux at the point of entry into the water is critical in tsunami generation.

Discretely Integrated Condition Event (DICE) Simulation for Pharmacoeconomics.

PubMed

Caro, J Jaime

2016-07-01

Several decision-analytic modeling techniques are in use for pharmacoeconomic analyses. Discretely integrated condition event (DICE) simulation is proposed as a unifying approach that has been deliberately designed to meet the modeling requirements in a straightforward transparent way, without forcing assumptions (e.g., only one transition per cycle) or unnecessary complexity. At the core of DICE are conditions that represent aspects that persist over time. They have levels that can change and many may coexist. Events reflect instantaneous occurrences that may modify some conditions or the timing of other events. The conditions are discretely integrated with events by updating their levels at those times. Profiles of determinant values allow for differences among patients in the predictors of the disease course. Any number of valuations (e.g., utility, cost, willingness-to-pay) of conditions and events can be applied concurrently in a single run. A DICE model is conveniently specified in a series of tables that follow a consistent format and the simulation can be implemented fully in MS Excel, facilitating review and validation. DICE incorporates both state-transition (Markov) models and non-resource-constrained discrete event simulation in a single formulation; it can be executed as a cohort or a microsimulation; and deterministically or stochastically.

Posttraumatic Stress in Survivors 1 Month to 19 Years after an Airliner Emergency Landing

PubMed Central

Arnberg, Filip K.; Michel, Per-Olof; Lundin, Tom

2015-01-01

Posttraumatic stress (PTS) is common in survivors from life-threatening events. Little is known, however, about the course of PTS after life threat in the absence of collateral stressors (e.g., bereavement, social stigma, property loss) and there is a scarcity of studies about PTS in the long term. This study assessed the short- and long-term course of PTS, and the influence of gender, education and age on the level and course of PTS, in survivors from a non-fatal airliner emergency landing caused by engine failure at an altitude of 1 km. There were 129 persons on board. A survey including the Impact of Event Scale was distributed to 106 subjects after 1 month, 4 months, 14 months, and 25 months, and to 95 subjects after 19 years (response rates 64–83%). There were initially high levels of PTS. The majority of changes in PTS occurred from 1 to 4 months after the event. There were small changes from 4 to 25 months but further decrease in PTS thereafter. Female gender was associated with higher levels of PTS whereas gender was unrelated to the slope of the short- and long-term trajectories. Higher education was related to a quicker recovery although not to initial or long-term PTS. Age was not associated with PTS. The present findings suggest that a life-threatening experience without collateral stressors may produce high levels of acute posttraumatic stress, yet with a benign prognosis. The findings further implicate that gender is unrelated to trajectories of recovery in the context of highly similar exposure and few collateral stressors. PMID:25734536

Psychometric properties of the List of Threatening Experiences--LTE and its association with psychosocial factors and mental disorders according to different scoring methods.

PubMed

Motrico, Emma; Moreno-Küstner, Berta; de Dios Luna, Juan; Torres-González, Francisco; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Gilde Gómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia; Bellón, Juan Ángel

2013-09-25

The List of Threatening Experiences (LTE) questionnaire is frequently used to assess stressful events; however, studies of its psychometric properties are scarce. We examined the LTE's reliability, factorial structure, construct validity and explored the association between LTE scores and psychosocial variables and mental disorders. This study involved interviewing 5442 primary care attendees from Spain. Associations between four different methods of quantifying LTE scores, psychosocial factors, major depression (CIDI), anxiety disorders (PRIME-MD), alcohol misuse and dependence (AUDIT) were measured. The LTE showed high test-retest reliability (Kappa range=0.61-0.87) and low internal consistency (α=0.44). Tetrachoric factorial analysis yielded four factors (spousal and relational problems; employment and financial problems; personal problems; illness and bereavement in close persons). Logistic multilevel regression found a strong association between greater social support and a lower occurrence of stressful events (OR range=0.36-0.79). The association between religious-spiritual beliefs and the LTE, was weaker. The association between mental disorders and LTE scores was greater for depression (OR range=1.64-2.57) than anxiety (OR range=1.35-1.97), though the highest ORs were obtained with alcohol dependence (OR range=2.86-4.80). The ordinal score (ordinal regression) was more sensitive to detect the strength of association with mental disorders. We are unable to distinguish the direction of the association between stressful events, psychosocial factors and mental disorders, due to our cross-sectional design of the study. The LTE is a valid and reliable measure of stress in mental health, and the strength of association with mental disorders depends on the method of quantifying LTE scores. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The role of complementary examinations and home monitoring in patient at risk from apparent life threatening event, apneas and sudden infant death syndrome].

PubMed

Martínez Monseny, A; Bobillo Pérez, S; Martínez Planas, A; García García, J J

2015-08-01

Home apnea monitors detect abnormalities in cardiac and respiratory frequency, but their use in the diagnosis of respiratory -related sleep disturbances in children has not been demonstrated, as was originally thought. To describe the type of patients being monitored, for how long and their outcome. A retrospective descriptive study was conducted on patients with controlled home cardiorespiratory monitoring from October 2008 to September 2012 in the Outpatient department of a Maternity tertiary hospital. During the study period 88 patients were included, 58% of them were male, with a median age of 15.5 days, and followed up for a period of 4.7 months. The reason for monitoring was in a 20.5% due to a history of sudden death without finding underlying pathology in 20.5%, 25% due to apnea of prematurity, 20.5% due to apparent life-threatening event, and 14.8% due to choking. Other causes accounted for 19.3% (apnea/hypopnea, desaturation and periodic breathing). Of these last three groups, pathological events were observed in 50% of them: reflux disease (9), apnea of prematurity (2), neurological causes (3), and apnea of unknown cause (10). Suspected infant apnea is a cause for consultation that creates a great deal of concern to the family and the pediatrician. Home monitoring is useful in detecting changes in cardiac and respiratory frequency, but is necessary to limit its indications and ensure proper monitoring of these patients, avoiding the abuse of other tests or treatments. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Should We Stay or Should We Go Now? The Physical, Economic, Geopolitical, Social and Psychological Factors of Recovery from Catastrophic Disaster

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

abandoning a city occurred following rapid and life threatening situations, such as Pripyat following the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Abandonment...events, and mitigation to overcome identified challenges addressed. The Chernobyl accident in 1986 forced the evacuation and resettlement of 134,000...Pripyat near Chernobyl , or Plymouth Montserrat (known as the “Pompeii of the Caribbean”) after being buried by volcanic ash.352 Diminishment of

Space Acquisition Issues in 2013

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

weapon against one of their weather satellites. That test created more than 3,000 pieces of trackable debris along with thousands of pieces of de - bris...too small to track—objects that will threaten other satellites for de - cades, if not centuries, to come. The second event was in 2009 when a dead...more pieces too small to track. Even more trouble- some are the estimated hundreds of thousands of small pieces of de - bris we cannot track in space

Simulation and study of small numbers of random events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelton, R. D.

1986-01-01

Random events were simulated by computer and subjected to various statistical methods to extract important parameters. Various forms of curve fitting were explored, such as least squares, least distance from a line, maximum likelihood. Problems considered were dead time, exponential decay, and spectrum extraction from cosmic ray data using binned data and data from individual events. Computer programs, mostly of an iterative nature, were developed to do these simulations and extractions and are partially listed as appendices. The mathematical basis for the compuer programs is given.

Predicting the Influence of Streamflow on Migration and Spawning of a Threatened Diadromous Fish, the Australian Grayling Prototroctes Maraena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koster, W. M.; Crook, D. A.; Dawson, D. R.; Gaskill, S.; Morrongiello, J. R.

2018-03-01

The development of effective strategies to restore the biological functioning of aquatic ecosystems with altered flow regimes requires a detailed understanding of flow-ecology requirements, which is unfortunately lacking in many cases. By understanding the flow conditions required to initiate critical life history events such as migration and spawning, it is possible to mitigate the threats posed by regulated river flow by providing targeted environmental flow releases from impoundments. In this study, we examined the influence of hydrological variables (e.g., flow magnitude), temporal variables (e.g., day of year) and spatial variables (e.g., longitudinal position of fish) on two key life history events (migration to spawning grounds and spawning activity) for a threatened diadromous fish (Australian grayling Prototroctes maraena) using data collected from 2008 to 2015 in the Bunyip-Tarago river system in Victoria. Our analyses revealed that flow changes act as a cue to downstream migration, but movement responses differed spatially: fish in the upper catchment showed a more specific requirement for rising discharge to initiate migration than fish in the lower catchment. Egg concentrations peaked in May when weekly flows increased relative to the median flow during a given spawning period. This information has recently been incorporated into the development of targeted environmental flows to facilitate migration and spawning by Australian grayling in the Bunyip-Tarago river system and other coastal systems in Victoria.

[Live-threatening bronchospasm during anesthesia induction : when pure routine becomes a nightmare].

PubMed

Rüggeberg, A; Breckwoldt, J

2011-10-01

This article reports a case of live-threatening respiratory failure during induction of anesthesia. An 18-year-old female was admitted to hospital for an axillary abscess incision on a public holiday. The patient had a history of asthmatic episodes and an allergy to milk protein and 2 years previously an asthmatic attack had possibly been treated by mechanical ventilation. Retrospectively, this event turned out to be a cardiac arrest with mechanical ventilation for 24 h. During induction of anesthesia the patient suddenly developed massive bronchospasms and ventilation was impossible for minutes. Oxygen saturation fell below 80% over a period of 12 min with a lowest measurement of 13%. The patient was treated with epinephrine, prednisolone, antihistamine drugs, ß(2)-agonists, s-ketamine and methylxanthines and 15 min later the oxygen saturation returned to normal values. After mild therapeutic hypothermia for 24 h mechanical ventilation was still required for another 4 days. The patient recovered completely and was discharged home on day 19. Initially propofol was suspected of having caused an anaphylactic shock but in retrospect, the diagnosis of near fatal asthma was more likely. The onset of the event was facilitated by the patient playing down the history of asthmatic episodes due to a strong wish for independency and negation of the severity of the disease.

Idarucizumab: A Review as a Reversal Agent for Dabigatran.

PubMed

Syed, Yahiya Y

2016-08-01

Idarucizumab (Praxbind(®)), a humanized monoclonal antibody, is a specific reversal agent for the direct oral thrombin inhibitor dabigatran, available as its prodrug dabigatran etexilate (Pradaxa(®)). Idarucizumab is approved in several countries (including the USA, the EU, Canada and Australia) for use in adult patients on dabigatran when the reversal of its anticoagulant effects is required for emergency surgery/procedures or in the event of life-threatening or uncontrolled bleeding. In the ongoing pivotal RE-VERSE AD trial in these populations (n = 90), intravenous idarucizumab 5 g reversed dabigatran-induced prolongation of dilute thrombin time (dTT) and ecarin clotting time (ECT) within minutes. The median maximum percentage reversal was 100 % for both assays (primary endpoint). Idarucizumab normalized dTT and ECT in 88-98 % of patients who had elevated levels at baseline. After idarucizumab administration, bleeding stopped in 97 % of evaluable patients in the bleeding cohort within 24 h (median time to cessation of bleeding was 11.4 h), and the rate of normal intraoperative haemostasis was 92 % in the surgical cohort. Idarucizumab was generally well tolerated. In conclusion, idarucizumab is a unique and specific treatment option for the reversal of the anticoagulant effects of dabigatran in adult patients requiring emergency procedures or in the event of life-threatening or uncontrolled bleeding.

Disease prevalence and snail predation associated with swell-generated damage on the threatened coral, Acropora palmata (Lamarck)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bright, Allan J.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Brandt, Marilyn E.; Muller, Erinn; Smith, Tyler B.

2016-01-01

Disturbances such as tropical storms cause coral mortality and reduce coral cover as a direct result of physical damage. Storms can be one of the most important disturbances in coral reef ecosystems, and it is crucial to understand their long-term impacts on coral populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine trends in disease prevalence and snail predation on damaged and undamaged colonies of the threatened coral species, Acropora palmata, following an episode of heavy ocean swells in the US Virgin Islands (USVI). At three sites on St. Thomas and St. John, colonies of A. palmata were surveyed monthly over 1 year following a series of large swells in March 2008 that fragmented 30–93% of colonies on monitored reefs. Post-disturbance surveys conducted from April 2008 through March 2009 showed that swell-generated damage to A. palmata caused negative indirect effects that compounded the initial direct effects of physical disturbance. During the 12 months after the swell event, white pox disease prevalence was 41% higher for colonies that sustained damage from the swells than for undamaged colonies (df = 207, p = 0.01) with greatest differences in disease prevalence occurring during warm water months. In addition, the corallivorous snail, Coralliophila abbreviata, was 46% more abundant on damaged corals than undamaged corals during the 12 months after the swell event (df = 207, p = 0.006).

Cell short circuit, preshort signature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lurie, C.

1980-01-01

Short-circuit events observed in ground test simulations of DSCS-3 battery in-orbit operations are analyzed. Voltage signatures appearing in the data preceding the short-circuit event are evaluated. The ground test simulation is briefly described along with performance during reconditioning discharges. Results suggest that a characteristic signature develops prior to a shorting event.

SimEngine v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le, Hai D.

2017-03-02

SimEngine provides the core functionalities and components that are key to the development of discrete event simulation tools. These include events, activities, event queues, random number generators, and basic result tracking classes. SimEngine was designed for high performance, integrates seamlessly into any Microsoft .Net development environment, and provides a flexible API for simulation developers.

Selection and geographic isolation influence hummingbird speciation: genetic, acoustic and morphological divergence in the wedge-tailed sabrewing (Campylopterus curvipennis).

PubMed

González, Clementina; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla

2011-02-08

Mesoamerica is one of the most threatened biodiversity hotspots in the world, yet we are far from understanding the geologic history and the processes driving population divergence and speciation for most endemic taxa. In species with highly differentiated populations selective and/or neutral factors can induce rapid changes to traits involved in mate choice, promoting reproductive isolation between allopatric populations that can eventually lead to speciation. We present the results of genetic differentiation, and explore drift and selection effects in promoting acoustic and morphological divergence among populations of Campylopterus curvipennis, a lekking hummingbird with an extraordinary vocal variability across Mesoamerica. Analyses of two mitochondrial genes and ten microsatellite loci genotyped for 160 individuals revealed the presence of three lineages with no contemporary gene flow: C. c. curvipennis, C. c. excellens, and C. c. pampa disjunctly distributed in the Sierra Madre Oriental, the Tuxtlas region and the Yucatan Peninsula, respectively. Sequence mtDNA and microsatellite data were congruent with two diversification events: an old vicariance event at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (c. 1.4 Ma), and a more recent Pleistocene split, isolating populations in the Tuxtlas region. Hummingbirds of the excellens group were larger, and those of the pampa group had shorter bills, and lineages that have been isolated the longest shared fewer syllables and differed in spectral and temporal traits of a shared syllable. Coalescent simulations showed that fixation of song types has occurred faster than expected under neutrality but the null hypothesis that morphological divergence resulted from drift was not rejected. Our phylogeographic analyses uncovered the presence of three Mesoamerican wedge-tailed sabrewing lineages, which diverged at different time scales. These results highlight the importance of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and more recent Pleistocene climatic events in driving isolation and population divergence. Coalescent analyses of the evolution of phenotypic traits suggest that selection is driving song evolution in wedge-tailed sabrewings but drift could not be rejected as a possibility for morphological divergence.

Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

2013-08-01

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by increasing transparency and consistency. Conservation Biology © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Episodic simulation of future events is impaired in mild Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Addis, Donna Rose; Sacchetti, Daniel C.; Ally, Brandon A.; Budson, Andrew E.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2009-01-01

Recent neuroimaging studies have demonstrated that both remembering the past and simulating the future activate a core neural network including the medial temporal lobes. Regions of this network, in particular the medial temporal lobes, are prime sites for amyloid deposition and are structurally and functionally compromised in Alzheimer's disease (AD). While we know some functions of this core network, specifically episodic autobiographical memory, are impaired in AD, no study has examined whether future episodic simulation is similarly impaired. We tested the ability of sixteen AD patients and sixteen age-matched controls to generate past and future autobiographical events using an adapted version of the Autobiographical Interview. Participants also generated five remote autobiographical memories from across the lifespan. Event transcriptions were segmented into distinct details, classified as either internal (episodic) or external (non-episodic). AD patients exhibited deficits in both remembering past events and simulating future events, generating fewer internal and external episodic details than healthy older controls. The internal and external detail scores were strongly correlated across past and future events, providing further evidence of the close linkages between the mental representations of past and future. PMID:19497331

Optimization of Operations Resources via Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joshi, B.; Morris, D.; White, N.; Unal, R.

1996-01-01

The resource levels required for operation and support of reusable launch vehicles are typically defined through discrete event simulation modeling. Minimizing these resources constitutes an optimization problem involving discrete variables and simulation. Conventional approaches to solve such optimization problems involving integer valued decision variables are the pattern search and statistical methods. However, in a simulation environment that is characterized by search spaces of unknown topology and stochastic measures, these optimization approaches often prove inadequate. In this paper, we have explored the applicability of genetic algorithms to the simulation domain. Genetic algorithms provide a robust search strategy that does not require continuity and differentiability of the problem domain. The genetic algorithm successfully minimized the operation and support activities for a space vehicle, through a discrete event simulation model. The practical issues associated with simulation optimization, such as stochastic variables and constraints, were also taken into consideration.

Simulating recurrent event data with hazard functions defined on a total time scale.

PubMed

Jahn-Eimermacher, Antje; Ingel, Katharina; Ozga, Ann-Kathrin; Preussler, Stella; Binder, Harald

2015-03-08

In medical studies with recurrent event data a total time scale perspective is often needed to adequately reflect disease mechanisms. This means that the hazard process is defined on the time since some starting point, e.g. the beginning of some disease, in contrast to a gap time scale where the hazard process restarts after each event. While techniques such as the Andersen-Gill model have been developed for analyzing data from a total time perspective, techniques for the simulation of such data, e.g. for sample size planning, have not been investigated so far. We have derived a simulation algorithm covering the Andersen-Gill model that can be used for sample size planning in clinical trials as well as the investigation of modeling techniques. Specifically, we allow for fixed and/or random covariates and an arbitrary hazard function defined on a total time scale. Furthermore we take into account that individuals may be temporarily insusceptible to a recurrent incidence of the event. The methods are based on conditional distributions of the inter-event times conditional on the total time of the preceeding event or study start. Closed form solutions are provided for common distributions. The derived methods have been implemented in a readily accessible R script. The proposed techniques are illustrated by planning the sample size for a clinical trial with complex recurrent event data. The required sample size is shown to be affected not only by censoring and intra-patient correlation, but also by the presence of risk-free intervals. This demonstrates the need for a simulation algorithm that particularly allows for complex study designs where no analytical sample size formulas might exist. The derived simulation algorithm is seen to be useful for the simulation of recurrent event data that follow an Andersen-Gill model. Next to the use of a total time scale, it allows for intra-patient correlation and risk-free intervals as are often observed in clinical trial data. Its application therefore allows the simulation of data that closely resemble real settings and thus can improve the use of simulation studies for designing and analysing studies.

Numerical simulations of an advection fog event over Shanghai Pudong International Airport with the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Caiyan; Zhang, Zhongfeng; Pu, Zhaoxia; Wang, Fengyun

2017-10-01

A series of numerical simulations is conducted to understand the formation, evolution, and dissipation of an advection fog event over Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the current operational settings at the Meteorological Center of East China Air Traffic Management Bureau, the WRF model successfully predicts the fog event at ZSPD. Additional numerical experiments are performed to examine the physical processes associated with the fog event. The results indicate that prediction of this particular fog event is sensitive to microphysical schemes for the time of fog dissipation but not for the time of fog onset. The simulated timing of the arrival and dissipation of the fog, as well as the cloud distribution, is substantially sensitive to the planetary boundary layer and radiation (both longwave and shortwave) processes. Moreover, varying forecast lead times also produces different simulation results for the fog event regarding its onset and duration, suggesting a trade-off between more accurate initial conditions and a proper forecast lead time that allows model physical processes to spin up adequately during the fog simulation. The overall outcomes from this study imply that the complexity of physical processes and their interactions within the WRF model during fog evolution and dissipation is a key area of future research.

Stressful life events preceding the onset of depression in Asian patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Park, Subin; Hatim, Ahmad; Si, Tian-Mei; Jeon, Hong Jin; Srisurapanont, Manit; Bautista, Dianne; Liu, Shen-ing; Chua, Hong Choon; Hong, Jin Pyo

2015-12-01

Previous studies have identified the significant role of stressful life events in the onset of depressive episodes. However, there is a paucity of cross-national studies on stressful life events that precede depression. We aimed to compare types of stressful life events associated with the onset of depressive episodes in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) in five Asian countries. A total of 507 outpatients with MDD were recruited in China (n = 114), South Korea (n = 101), Malaysia (n = 90), Thailand (n = 103) and Taiwan (n = 99). All patients were assessed with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the List of Threatening Experiences. The prevalence of each type of stressful life events was calculated and compared between each country. The type of stressful life event that preceded the onset of a depressive episode differed between patients in China and Taiwan and those in South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. Patients in China and Taiwan were less likely to report interpersonal relationship problems and occupational/financial problems than patients in South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. Understanding the nature and basis of culturally determined susceptibilities to specific stressful life events is critical for establishing a policy of depression prevention and providing effective counseling services for depressed patients. © The Author(s) 2015.

A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events

PubMed Central

Stephenson, David B.

2016-01-01

We develop a statistical framework for simulating natural hazard events that combines extreme value theory and geostatistics. Robust generalized additive model forms represent generalized Pareto marginal distribution parameters while a Student’s t-process captures spatial dependence and gives a continuous-space framework for natural hazard event simulations. Efficiency of the simulation method allows many years of data (typically over 10 000) to be obtained at relatively little computational cost. This makes the model viable for forming the hazard module of a catastrophe model. We illustrate the framework by simulating maximum wind gusts for European windstorms, which are found to have realistic marginal and spatial properties, and validate well against wind gust measurements. PMID:27279768

Hyperthyroidism and venous thrombosis: a casual or causal association? A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Franchini, Massimo; Lippi, Giuseppe; Targher, Giovanni

2011-08-01

A kaleidoscope of coagulation disorders have been reported in patients with thyroid dysfunctions. Globally, these disorders involve both primary and secondary hemostasis and range from subclinical laboratory abnormalities to, more rarely, life-threatening hemorrhages or thrombotic events. While overt hypothyroidism appears to be associated with a bleeding tendency, hyperthyroidism emerged to have an increased risk of thrombotic events. In particular, a number of case reports have documented acute venous thrombosis complications in patients with overt hyperthyroidism, especially at cerebral sites. Nevertheless, further observational and intervention studies might be needed to provide a more definitive information on the clinical relevance of this association, along with the potential implication for prevention and treatment of coagulation-fibrinolytic abnormalities in patients with thyroid dysfunction.

Methods to Improve Survival and Growth of Planted Alternative Species Seedlings in Black Ash Ecosystems Threatened by Emerald Ash Borer

Treesearch

Nicholas Bolton; Joseph Shannon; Joshua Davis; Matthew Grinsven; Nam Noh; Shon Schooler; Randall Kolka; Thomas Pypker; Joseph Wagenbrenner

2018-01-01

Emerald ash borer (EAB) continues to spread across North America, infesting native ash trees and changing the forested landscape. Black ash wetland forests are severely affected by EAB. As black ash wetland forests provide integral ecosystem services, alternative approaches to maintain forest cover on the landscape are needed. We implemented simulated EAB infestations...

Interval sampling methods and measurement error: a computer simulation.

PubMed

Wirth, Oliver; Slaven, James; Taylor, Matthew A

2014-01-01

A simulation study was conducted to provide a more thorough account of measurement error associated with interval sampling methods. A computer program simulated the application of momentary time sampling, partial-interval recording, and whole-interval recording methods on target events randomly distributed across an observation period. The simulation yielded measures of error for multiple combinations of observation period, interval duration, event duration, and cumulative event duration. The simulations were conducted up to 100 times to yield measures of error variability. Although the present simulation confirmed some previously reported characteristics of interval sampling methods, it also revealed many new findings that pertain to each method's inherent strengths and weaknesses. The analysis and resulting error tables can help guide the selection of the most appropriate sampling method for observation-based behavioral assessments. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

A role for affect in the link between episodic simulation and prosociality.

PubMed

Gaesser, Brendan; DiBiase, Haley D; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2017-09-01

Prospection and prosociality are hallmarks of our species. Little is known, however, about how our ability to imagine or simulate specific future events contributes to our capacity for prosociality. Here, we investigated this relationship, revealing how the affective response that arises from a simulated prosocial event motivates a willingness to help a person in need. Across two experiments, people reported being more willing to help in specific situations after simulating future helping events that elicited positive (versus negative or neutral) affect. Positive affect increased engagement of theory of mind for the person in need, which in turn informed prosocial responses. Moreover, the subjective experience of scene imagery and theory of mind systematically couple together depending on the affective valence of future simulations, providing new insight into how affective valence guides a prosocial function of episodic simulation.

An Overview of Importance Splitting for Rare Event Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morio, Jerome; Pastel, Rudy; Le Gland, Francois

2010-01-01

Monte Carlo simulations are a classical tool to analyse physical systems. When unlikely events are to be simulated, the importance sampling technique is often used instead of Monte Carlo. Importance sampling has some drawbacks when the problem dimensionality is high or when the optimal importance sampling density is complex to obtain. In this…

Design and Evaluation of Simulations for the Development of Complex Decision-Making Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Varley, Glen

2002-01-01

Command and Control Training Using Simulation (CACTUS) is a computer digital mapping system used by police to manage large-scale public events. Audio and video records of adaptive training scenarios using CACTUS show how the simulation develops decision-making skills for strategic and tactical event management. (SK)

A Spiking Neural Simulator Integrating Event-Driven and Time-Driven Computation Schemes Using Parallel CPU-GPU Co-Processing: A Case Study.

PubMed

Naveros, Francisco; Luque, Niceto R; Garrido, Jesús A; Carrillo, Richard R; Anguita, Mancia; Ros, Eduardo

2015-07-01

Time-driven simulation methods in traditional CPU architectures perform well and precisely when simulating small-scale spiking neural networks. Nevertheless, they still have drawbacks when simulating large-scale systems. Conversely, event-driven simulation methods in CPUs and time-driven simulation methods in graphic processing units (GPUs) can outperform CPU time-driven methods under certain conditions. With this performance improvement in mind, we have developed an event-and-time-driven spiking neural network simulator suitable for a hybrid CPU-GPU platform. Our neural simulator is able to efficiently simulate bio-inspired spiking neural networks consisting of different neural models, which can be distributed heterogeneously in both small layers and large layers or subsystems. For the sake of efficiency, the low-activity parts of the neural network can be simulated in CPU using event-driven methods while the high-activity subsystems can be simulated in either CPU (a few neurons) or GPU (thousands or millions of neurons) using time-driven methods. In this brief, we have undertaken a comparative study of these different simulation methods. For benchmarking the different simulation methods and platforms, we have used a cerebellar-inspired neural-network model consisting of a very dense granular layer and a Purkinje layer with a smaller number of cells (according to biological ratios). Thus, this cerebellar-like network includes a dense diverging neural layer (increasing the dimensionality of its internal representation and sparse coding) and a converging neural layer (integration) similar to many other biologically inspired and also artificial neural networks.

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not sufficient for the generation of novel future simulations in SD. The notable disconnect between objective task performance and patients' subjective experience during future simulation likely reflects the tendency of SD patients to recast entire past events into the future condition. Accordingly, the familiarity of the recapitulated details results in similar ratings of vividness and emotionality across temporal conditions, despite marked differences in the richness of contextual details as the patient moves from the past to the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Roehl, Edwin A.; Daamen, Ruby C.; Cook, John B.

2013-01-01

Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. Changes in streamflow patterns in conjunction with sea-level rise may change the salinity-intrusion dynamics of coastal rivers. Several municipal water-supply intakes are located along the Georgia and South Carolina coast that are proximal to the present day saltwater-freshwater interface of tidal rivers. Increases in the extent of salinity intrusion resulting from climate change could threaten the availability of freshwater supplies in the vicinity of these intakes. To effectively manage these supplies, water-resource managers need estimates of potential changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of salinity intrusion near their water-supply intakes that may occur as a result of climate change. This study examines potential effects of climate change, including altered streamflow and sea-level rise, on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion near municipal water-supply intakes in two coastal areas. One area consists of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) and the Waccamaw River near Myrtle Beach along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast, and the second area is on or near the lower Savannah River near Savannah, Georgia. The study evaluated how future sea-level rise and a reduction in streamflows can potentially affect salinity intrusion and threaten municipal water supplies and the biodiversity of freshwater tidal marshes in these two areas. Salinity intrusion occurs as a result of the interaction between three principal forces—streamflow, mean coastal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze and simulate salinity dynamics at critical coastal gaging stations near four municipal water-supply intakes, various data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were used to evaluate hourly streamflow, salinity, and coastal water-level data collected over a period exceeding 10 years. The ANN models were trained (calibrated) to learn the specific interactions that cause salinity intrusions, and resulting models were able to accurately simulate historical salinity dynamics in both study areas. Changes in sea level and streamflow quantity and timing can be simulated by the salinity intrusion models to evaluate various climate-change scenarios. The salinity intrusion models for the study areas are deployed in a decision support system to facilitate the use of the models for management decisions by coastal water-resource managers. The report describes the use of the salinity-intrusion models decision support system to evaluate salinity-intrusion dynamics for various climate-change scenarios, including incremental increases in sea level in combination with incremental decreases in streamflow. Operation of municipal water-treatment plants is problematic when the specific-conductance values for source water are greater than 1,000 to 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter (µS/cm). High specific-conductance values contribute to taste problems that require treatment. Data from a gage downstream from a municipal water intake indicate specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm about 5.4 percent of the time over the 14-year period from August 1995 to August 2008. Simulations of specific conductance at this gaging station that incorporates sea-level rises resulted in a doubling of the exceedances to 11.0 percent for a 1-foot increase and 17.6 percent for a 2-foot increase. The frequency of intrusion of water with specific conductance values of 1,000 µS/cm was less sensitive to incremental reductions in streamflow than to incremental increases in sea level. Simulations of conditions associated with a 10-percent reduction in streamflow, in combination with a 1-foot rise in sea level, increased the percentage of time specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm at this site from 11.0 to 13.3 percent, and a 20-percent reduction in streamflow increased the percentage of time to 16.6 percent. Precipitation and temperature data from a global circulation model were used, after scale adjustments, as input to a watershed model of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River basin, which flows into the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway study area in South Carolina. The simulated streamflow for historical conditions and projected climate change in the future was used as input for the ANN model in decision support system. Results of simulations incorporating climate-change projections for alterations in streamflow indicate an increase in the frequency of salinity-intrusion events and a shift in the seasonal occurrence of the intrusion events from the summer to the fall.

Flood simulation and verification with IoT sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Che-Hao; Hsu, Chih-Tsung; Wu, Shiang-Jen; Huang, Sue-Wei

2017-04-01

2D flood dynamic simulation is a vivid tool to demonstrate the possible expose area that sustain impact of high rise of water level. Along with progress in high resolution digital terrain model, the simulation results are quite convinced yet not proved to be close to what is really happened. Due to the dynamic and uncertain essence, the expose area usually could not be well defined during a flood event. Recent development in IoT sensors bring a low power and long distance communication which help us to collect real time flood depths. With these time series of flood depths at different locations, we are capable of verifying the simulation results corresponding to the flood event. 16 flood gauges with IoT specification as well as two flood events in Annan district, Tainan city, Taiwan are examined in this study. During the event in 11, June, 2016, 12 flood gauges works well and 8 of them provide observation match to simulation.

Attentional Modulation of Somatosensory Processing During the Anticipation of Movements Accompanying Pain: An Event-Related Potential Study.

PubMed

Clauwaert, Amanda; Torta, Diana M; Danneels, Lieven; Van Damme, Stefaan

2018-02-01

Attending to pain-relevant information is crucial to protect us from physical harm. Behavioral studies have already suggested that during anticipation of pain somatosensory input at the body location under threat is prioritized. However, research using daily life cues for pain, especially movements, is lacking. Furthermore, to our knowledge, no studies have investigated cortical processing associated with somatosensory processing during threatened movements. The current study aims to investigate whether movements accompanying pain automatically steer attention toward somatosensory input at the threatened location, affecting somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs). Healthy volunteers were cued to perform movements with the left or the right hand, and one of these movements could be accompanied by pain on the moving hand. During movement anticipation, a task-irrelevant tactile stimulus was presented to the threatened or pain-free hand to evoke SEPs. During anticipation of movements accompanying pain, the N120 component was increased for tactile stimuli at the threatened relative to the hand without pain. Moreover, the P200 SEP was enhanced during anticipation of movements accompanying pain relative to movements without pain, irrespective of which hand was stimulated. These findings show that the anticipation of pain-accompanying movements may affect the processing of somatosensory input, and that this is likely to be driven by attentional processes. This study shows that the anticipation of pain-related movements automatically biases attention toward stimuli at a pain-related location, measured according to SEPs. The present study provides important new insights in the interplay between pain and attention, and its consequences at the cortical level. Copyright © 2017 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monte-Carlo Event Generators for Jet Modification in d(p)-A and A-A Collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kordell, Michael C., III

This work outlines methods to use jet simulations to study both initial and final state nuclear effects in heavy-ion collisions. To study the initial state of heavy-ion collisions, the production of jets and high momentum hadrons from jets, produced in deuteron (d)-Au collisions at the relativistic heavy-ion collider (RHIC) and proton (p)- Pb collisions at the large hadron collider (LHC) are studied as a function of centrality, a measure of the impact parameter of the collision. A modified version of the event generator PYTHIA, widely used to simulate p-p collisions, is used in conjunction with a nuclear Monte-Carlo event generator which simulates the locations of the nucleons within a large nucleus. It is demonstrated how events with a hard jet may be simulated, in such a way that the parton distribution function of the projectile is frozen during its interaction with the extended nucleus. Using this approach, it is demonstrated that the puzzling enhancement seen in peripheral events at RHIC and the LHC, as well as the suppression seen in central events at the LHC are mainly due to mis-binning of central and semi-central events, containing a jet, as peripheral events. This occurs due to the suppression of soft particle production away from the jet, caused by the depletion of energy available in a nucleon of the deuteron (in d-Au at RHIC) or in the proton (in p-Pb at LHC), after the production of a hard jet. In conclusion, partonic correlations built out of simple energy conservation are responsible for such an effect, though these are sampled at the hard scale of jet production and, as such, represent smaller states. To study final state nuclear effects, the modification of hard jets in the Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) is simulated using the MATTER event generator. Based on the higher twist formalism of energy loss, the MATTER event generator simulates the evolution of highly virtual partons through a medium. These partons sampled from an underlying PYTHIA kernel undergo splitting through a combination of vacuum and medium induced emission. The momentum exchange with the medium is simulated via the jet transport coefficient q̂, which is assumed to scale with the entropy density at a given location in the medium. The entropy density is obtained from a relativistic viscous fluid dynamics simulation (VISH2+1D) in 2+1 space time dimensions. Results for jet and hadron observables are presented using an independent fragmentation model.

Discrete event simulation tool for analysis of qualitative models of continuous processing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T. (Inventor); Basham, Bryan D. (Inventor); Harris, Richard A. (Inventor)

1990-01-01

An artificial intelligence design and qualitative modeling tool is disclosed for creating computer models and simulating continuous activities, functions, and/or behavior using developed discrete event techniques. Conveniently, the tool is organized in four modules: library design module, model construction module, simulation module, and experimentation and analysis. The library design module supports the building of library knowledge including component classes and elements pertinent to a particular domain of continuous activities, functions, and behavior being modeled. The continuous behavior is defined discretely with respect to invocation statements, effect statements, and time delays. The functionality of the components is defined in terms of variable cluster instances, independent processes, and modes, further defined in terms of mode transition processes and mode dependent processes. Model construction utilizes the hierarchy of libraries and connects them with appropriate relations. The simulation executes a specialized initialization routine and executes events in a manner that includes selective inherency of characteristics through a time and event schema until the event queue in the simulator is emptied. The experimentation and analysis module supports analysis through the generation of appropriate log files and graphics developments and includes the ability of log file comparisons.

Discrete event simulation: the preferred technique for health economic evaluations?

PubMed

Caro, Jaime J; Möller, Jörgen; Getsios, Denis

2010-12-01

To argue that discrete event simulation should be preferred to cohort Markov models for economic evaluations in health care. The basis for the modeling techniques is reviewed. For many health-care decisions, existing data are insufficient to fully inform them, necessitating the use of modeling to estimate the consequences that are relevant to decision-makers. These models must reflect what is known about the problem at a level of detail sufficient to inform the questions. Oversimplification will result in estimates that are not only inaccurate, but potentially misleading. Markov cohort models, though currently popular, have so many limitations and inherent assumptions that they are inadequate to inform most health-care decisions. An event-based individual simulation offers an alternative much better suited to the problem. A properly designed discrete event simulation provides more accurate, relevant estimates without being computationally prohibitive. It does require more data and may be a challenge to convey transparently, but these are necessary trade-offs to provide meaningful and valid results. In our opinion, discrete event simulation should be the preferred technique for health economic evaluations today. © 2010, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR).

Running Parallel Discrete Event Simulators on Sierra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, P. D.; Jefferson, D. R.

2015-12-03

In this proposal we consider porting the ROSS/Charm++ simulator and the discrete event models that run under its control so that they run on the Sierra architecture and make efficient use of the Volta GPUs.

An investigation into pilot and system response to critical in-flight events, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockwell, T. H.; Giffin, W. C.

1981-01-01

Critical in-flight event is studied using mission simulation and written tests of pilot responses. Materials and procedures used in knowledge tests, written tests, and mission simulations are included

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prescott, Steven; Mandelli, Diego; Sampath, Ramprasad

2015-09-01

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to themore » design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.« less

Pseudo-global warming controls on the intensity and morphology of extreme convective storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trapp, R. J.

2015-12-01

This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme convective storm events might be represented under future anthropogenic climate change. We adapt the "pseudo-global warming" (PGW) methodology employed by Lackmann (2013, 2015) and others, who have investigated flooding and tropical cyclone events under climate change. Here, we exploit coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM data contributed to the CMIP5 archive, and take the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990-1999 and subtract it from that simulated during May 2090-2099. Such 3D changes in temperature, humidity, geopotential height, and winds are added to synoptic/meso-scale analyses (NAM-ANL) of specific events, and this modified atmospheric state is then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control (CTRL) simulations facilitates assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in our CTRL simulations, the combined effects of increased CIN and decreased forcing under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of our ensemble members. Those members that had sufficient matching between the CIN and forcing tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than in the CTRL simulations, because of the relatively higher CAPE under PGW. And, the members with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such mesocyclonic rotation and attendant supercellular morphology were even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear.

Simulation of earthquake ground motions in the eastern United States using deterministic physics‐based and site‐based stochastic approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Hartzell, Stephen; Sun, Xiaodan; Mendoza, Carlos

2017-01-01

Earthquake ground‐motion recordings are scarce in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) for large‐magnitude events and at close distances. We use two different simulation approaches, a deterministic physics‐based method and a site‐based stochastic method, to simulate ground motions over a wide range of magnitudes. Drawing on previous results for the modeling of recordings from the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and using the 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj, India, earthquake as a tectonic analog for a large magnitude CEUS event, we are able to calibrate the two simulation methods over this magnitude range. Both models show a good fit to the Mineral and Bhuj observations from 0.1 to 10 Hz. Model parameters are then adjusted to obtain simulations for Mw 6.5, 7.0, and 7.6 events in the CEUS. Our simulations are compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey weighted combination of existing ground‐motion prediction equations in the CEUS. The physics‐based simulations show comparable response spectral amplitudes and a fairly similar attenuation with distance. The site‐based stochastic simulations suggest a slightly faster attenuation of the response spectral amplitudes with distance for larger magnitude events and, as a result, slightly lower amplitudes at distances greater than 200 km. Both models are plausible alternatives and, given the few available data points in the CEUS, can be used to represent the epistemic uncertainty in modeling of postulated CEUS large‐magnitude events.

Performance of residents and anesthesiologists in a simulation-based skill assessment.

PubMed

Murray, David J; Boulet, John R; Avidan, Michael; Kras, Joseph F; Henrichs, Bernadette; Woodhouse, Julie; Evers, Alex S

2007-11-01

Anesthesiologists and anesthesia residents are expected to acquire and maintain skills to manage a wide range of acute intraoperative anesthetic events. The purpose of this study was to determine whether an inventory of simulated intraoperative scenarios provided a reliable and valid measure of anesthesia residents' and anesthesiologists' skill. Twelve simulated acute intraoperative scenarios were designed to assess the performance of 64 residents and 35 anesthesiologists. The participants were divided into four groups based on their training and experience. There were 31 new CA-1, 12 advanced CA-1, and 22 CA-2/CA-3 residents as well as a group of 35 experienced anesthesiologists who participated in the assessment. Each participant managed a set of simulated events. The advanced CA-1 residents, CA-2/CA-3 residents, and 35 anesthesiologists managed 8 of 12 intraoperative simulation exercises. The 31 CA-1 residents each managed 3 intraoperative scenarios. The new CA-1 residents received lower scores on the simulated intraoperative events than the other groups of participants. The advanced CA-1 residents, CA-2/CA-3 residents, and anesthesiologists performed similarly on the overall assessment. There was a wide range of scores obtained by individuals in each group. A number of the exercises were difficult for the majority of participants to recognize and treat, but most events effectively discriminated among participants who achieved higher and lower overall scores. This simulation-based assessment provided a valid method to distinguish the skills of more experienced anesthesia residents and anesthesiologists from residents in early training. The overall score provided a reliable measure of a participant's ability to recognize and manage simulated acute intraoperative events. Additional studies are needed to determine whether these simulation-based assessments are valid measures of clinical performance.

Relation of Parallel Discrete Event Simulation algorithms with physical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shchur, L. N.; Shchur, L. V.

2015-09-01

We extend concept of local simulation times in parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) in order to take into account architecture of the current hardware and software in high-performance computing. We shortly review previous research on the mapping of PDES on physical problems, and emphasise how physical results may help to predict parallel algorithms behaviour.

Weight loss and decubitus duodenal ulcer in Parkinson's disease treated with levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel infusion.

PubMed

Martino, Tommaso; Melchionda, Donato; Tonti, Paolo; De Francesco, Vincenzo; Lalla, Alessandra; Specchio, Luigi Maria; Avolio, Carlo

2016-12-01

Apparently, unexplained weight loss is a common symptom experienced by patients affected by Parkinson's disease, especially in those treated by levodopa-carbidopa infusion gel (LCIG) with a poor control of dyskinesias. Weight loss is considered part of gastrointestinal dysfunction seen in patients affected by Parkinson's disease, along with gastroparesis and reduced bowel peristalsis. In patients treated with LCIG, weight loss needs to be accurately evaluated, because of possible underlying life-threatening adverse events, like duodenum decubitus ulcer.

Addison's disease.

PubMed

Sarkar, Soumya Brata; Sarkar, Subrata; Ghosh, Supratim; Bandyopadhyay, Subhankar

2012-10-01

Addison's disease is a rare endocrinal disorder, with several oral and systemic manifestations. A variety of pathological processes may cause Addison's disease. Classically, hyperpigmentation is associated with the disease, and intraoral pigmentation is perceived as the initial sign and develops earlier than the dermatological pigmentation. The symptoms of the disease usually progress slowly and an event of illness or accident can make the condition worse and may lead to a life-threatening crisis. In this case, several oral as well as systemic manifestation of the Addison's disease was encountered.

Addison's disease

PubMed Central

Sarkar, Soumya Brata; Sarkar, Subrata; Ghosh, Supratim; Bandyopadhyay, Subhankar

2012-01-01

Addison's disease is a rare endocrinal disorder, with several oral and systemic manifestations. A variety of pathological processes may cause Addison's disease. Classically, hyperpigmentation is associated with the disease, and intraoral pigmentation is perceived as the initial sign and develops earlier than the dermatological pigmentation. The symptoms of the disease usually progress slowly and an event of illness or accident can make the condition worse and may lead to a life-threatening crisis. In this case, several oral as well as systemic manifestation of the Addison's disease was encountered. PMID:23633816

Measuring the Utility of a Cyber Incident Mission Impact Assessment (CIMIA) Process for Mission Assurance

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

1.179 1 22 .289 POP-UP .000 1 22 .991 Tests the null hypothesis that the error variance of the dependent variable is equal across groups. a. Design ...POP-UP 2.104 1 22 .161 Tests the null hypothesis that the error variance of the dependent variable is equal across groups. a. Design : Intercept... design also limited the number of intended treatments. The experimental design originally was suppose to test all three adverse events that threaten

[Two cases of anaphylactoid reaction after administration of sugammadex].

PubMed

Ohshita, Naohiro; Tsutsumi, Yasuo M; Kasai, Asuka; Soga, Tomohiro; Kanamura, Tomomi; Katayama, Toshiko; Iseki, Akio; Tomiyama, Yoshinobu; Tanaka, Katsuya

2012-11-01

Anaphylaxis during anesthesia is a rare but life-threatening event. Sugammadex is a recently introduced drug that was specifically designed for the reversal of rocuroium and vecuronium-induced neuromuscular block. We describe the cases of a 74-year-old man and a 29-year-old man who developed an anaphylactoid reaction to sugammadex, presenting with cardiovascular collapse. Initial management consisted of fluid administration and intermittent i.v. ephedrine, epinephrine, and hydrocortisone. The patients made uncomplicated recovery and were discharged.

Using Discrete Event Simulation for Programming Model Exploration at Extreme-Scale: Macroscale Components for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilke, Jeremiah J; Kenny, Joseph P.

2015-02-01

Discrete event simulation provides a powerful mechanism for designing and testing new extreme- scale programming models for high-performance computing. Rather than debug, run, and wait for results on an actual system, design can first iterate through a simulator. This is particularly useful when test beds cannot be used, i.e. to explore hardware or scales that do not yet exist or are inaccessible. Here we detail the macroscale components of the structural simulation toolkit (SST). Instead of depending on trace replay or state machines, the simulator is architected to execute real code on real software stacks. Our particular user-space threading frameworkmore » allows massive scales to be simulated even on small clusters. The link between the discrete event core and the threading framework allows interesting performance metrics like call graphs to be collected from a simulated run. Performance analysis via simulation can thus become an important phase in extreme-scale programming model and runtime system design via the SST macroscale components.« less

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

DOE PAGES

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; ...

2017-06-09

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of “KMC stiffness” (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps / cpu-time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order tomore » achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events -- allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. Lastly, as shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.« less

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; Savara, Aditya

2017-10-01

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of "KMC stiffness" (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps/CPU time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order to achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events-allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm is designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. As shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.

Simulation of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Removal in Ecological Ditch Based on EFDC Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S. M.; Wang, X. L.; Zhou, Q. Y.; Han, N. N.

2018-03-01

Agricultural non-point source pollution threatens water quality and ecological system recently. To control it, the first and most important task is to control the migration and transformation of nitrogen and phosphorus in the agricultural ditches. An ecological ditch was designed, and according to the design a pilot device was built, the mechanism of N and P removal in ditches under the collaboration of aquatic organisms-hydraulic power was studied through the dynamic and static experiments, in order to find out the specific influences of different environmental factors such as influent concentration, influent flow and water level. The transport and diffusion of N and P in the ditch was simulated by a three dimensional water quality model EFDC, the simulation results and the experimental data were compared. The average relative errors of EFDC model simulated results were all less than 15%, which verified the reliability of the model.

Multimodal processing of emotional information in 9-month-old infants I: emotional faces and voices.

PubMed

Otte, R A; Donkers, F C L; Braeken, M A K A; Van den Bergh, B R H

2015-04-01

Making sense of emotions manifesting in human voice is an important social skill which is influenced by emotions in other modalities, such as that of the corresponding face. Although processing emotional information from voices and faces simultaneously has been studied in adults, little is known about the neural mechanisms underlying the development of this ability in infancy. Here we investigated multimodal processing of fearful and happy face/voice pairs using event-related potential (ERP) measures in a group of 84 9-month-olds. Infants were presented with emotional vocalisations (fearful/happy) preceded by the same or a different facial expression (fearful/happy). The ERP data revealed that the processing of emotional information appearing in human voice was modulated by the emotional expression appearing on the corresponding face: Infants responded with larger auditory ERPs after fearful compared to happy facial primes. This finding suggests that infants dedicate more processing capacities to potentially threatening than to non-threatening stimuli. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hope facilitating strategies for the family of the head injury patient.

PubMed

Johnson, L H; Roberts, S L

1996-08-01

Approximately 200 new head injuries are reported per 100,000 population each year in the United States. These injuries are more common in younger men and caused most frequently by motor vehicle accidents. Head injuries occur suddenly and unexpectedly. Head injury affects not only the individual but the family as well. The family's functional abilities are threatened by the head injury of a family member. The family's adaptation to head injury and life-threatening events surrounding the injury has a significant impact on the patient's rehabilitation. A family's response of denial or lack of hope in the future has been identified as a major obstacle to successful adaptation. The hopeless family may be unable to make necessary changes at home or learn important aspects of the patient's care. Depending upon the extent of the head injury, the family needs to know that most head trauma patients make significant progress in the first six months. Progress usually continues, less dramatically, for the next two to three years.

Neuroscientific evidence for defensive avoidance of fear appeals

PubMed Central

Kessels, Loes T E; Ruiter, Robert A C; Wouters, Liesbeth; Jansma, Bernadette M

2014-01-01

Previous studies indicate that people respond defensively to threatening health information, especially when the information challenges self-relevant goals. The authors investigated whether reduced acceptance of self-relevant health risk information is already visible in early attention allocation processes. In two experimental studies, participants were watching high- and low-threat health commercials, and at the same time had to pay attention to specific odd auditory stimuli in a sequence of frequent auditory stimuli (odd ball paradigm). The amount of attention allocation was measured by recording event-related brain potentials (i.e., P300 ERPs) and reaction times. Smokers showed larger P300 amplitudes in response to the auditory targets while watching high-threat instead of low-threat anti-smoking commercials. In contrast, non-smokers showed smaller P300 amplitudes during watching high as opposed to low threat anti-smoking commercials. In conclusion, the findings provide further neuroscientific support for the hypothesis that threatening health information causes more avoidance responses among those for whom the health threat is self-relevant. PMID:24811878

Neural time course of threat-related attentional bias and interference in panic and obsessive-compulsive disorders.

PubMed

Thomas, Susan J; Gonsalvez, Craig J; Johnstone, Stuart J

2013-09-01

Attentional biases to threat are considered central to anxiety disorders, however physiological evidence of their nature and time course is lacking. Event-related potentials (ERPs) characterized sensory and cognitive changes while 20 outpatients with panic disorder (PD), 20 with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and 20 healthy controls (HCs) responded to the color (emotional Stroop task) or meaning of threatening and neutral stimuli. ERPs indicated larger P1 amplitude and longer N1 latency in OCD, and shorter P1 latency in PD, to threatening (versus neutral) stimuli, across instructions to attend to, or ignore, threat content. Emotional Stroop interference correlated with phobic anxiety and was significant in PD. Participants with emotional Stroop interference had augmented P1 and P3 amplitudes to threat (versus neutral) stimuli when color-naming. The results suggest early attentional biases to threat in both disorders, with disorder-specific characteristics. ERPs supported preferential early attentional capture and cognitive elaboration hypotheses of emotional Stroop interference. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Cataract surgery under topical anesthesia with oral anticoagulants].

PubMed

Wirbelauer, C; Weller, A; Häberle, H; Pham, D T

2004-09-01

Approximately 14 % of cataract surgery patients receive blood-thinning agents. In a prospective study, the influence of oral anticoagulants on intraoperative and postoperative hemorrhages in patients undergoing cataract surgery in topical anesthesia was investigated. 128 patients presenting for cataract surgery under oral anticoagulation were included. The mean preoperative prothrombin time was 39 +/- 18 %. Most patients (81 %) continued their oral anticoagulation (prothrombin time 34 +/- 13 %). All surgeries were performed in topical anesthesia. In 9 patients (7 %) an ocular hemorrhagic event was observed. These were not sight-threatening and resorbed spontaneously within a few days. Only one patient (0.8 %) had a slight hemorrhage in the anterior chamber. There were no differences (P > 0.05) between patients with or without hemorrhagic complications in the postoperative visual acuity, the intraocular pressure, the prothrombin time or the discontinuation of oral anticoagulants. Cataract surgery in topical anesthesia under oral anticoagulation did not increase the risk of sight-threatening hemorrhages. The continuation of oral anticoagulation seems particularly indicated for ambulatory cataract surgery.

Shared cognitive processes underlying past and future thinking: the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on event specificity.

PubMed

Anderson, Rachel J; Dewhurst, Stephen A; Nash, Robert A

2012-03-01

Recent literature has argued that whereas remembering the past and imagining the future make use of shared cognitive substrates, simulating future events places heavier demands on executive resources. These propositions were explored in 3 experiments comparing the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on speed and accuracy of past event retrieval and future event simulation. Results provide support for the suggestion that both past and future episodes can be constructed through 2 mechanisms: a noneffortful "direct" pathway and a controlled, effortful "generative" pathway. However, limited evidence emerged for the suggestion that simulating of future, compared with retrieving past, episodes places heavier demands on executive resources; only under certain conditions did it emerge as a more error prone and lengthier process. The findings are discussed in terms of how retrieval and simulation make use of the same cognitive substrates in subtly different ways. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Simulation laboratories for training in obstetrics and gynecology.

PubMed

Macedonia, Christian R; Gherman, Robert B; Satin, Andrew J

2003-08-01

Simulations have been used by the military, airline industry, and our colleagues in other medical specialties to educate, evaluate, and prepare for rare but life-threatening scenarios. Work hour limits for residents in obstetrics and gynecology and decreased patient availability for teaching of students and residents require us to think creatively and practically on how to optimize their education. Medical simulations may address scenarios in clinical practice that are considered important to know or understand. Simulations can take many forms, including computer programs, models or mannequins, virtual reality data immersion caves, and a combination of formats. The purpose of this commentary is to call attention to a potential role for medical simulation in obstetrics and gynecology. We briefly describe an example of how simulation may be incorporated into obstetric and gynecologic residency training. It is our contention that educators in obstetrics and gynecology should be aware of the potential for simulation in education. We hope this commentary will stimulate interest in the field, lead to validation studies, and improve training in and the practice of obstetrics and gynecology.

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

PubMed

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

El Nino - La Nina events simulated with Cane and Zebiak`s model and observed with satellite or in situ data. Part I: Model data comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perigaud C.; Dewitte, B.

The Zebiak and Cane model is used in its {open_quotes}uncoupled mode,{close_quotes} meaning that the oceanic model component is driven by the Florida State University (FSU) wind stress anomalies over 1980-93 to simulate sea surface temperature anomalies, and these are used in the atmospheric model component to generate wind anomalies. Simulations are compared with data derived from FSU winds, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud convection, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer SST, Geosat sea level, 20{degrees}C isotherm depth derived from an expendable bathythermograph, and current velocities estimated from drifters or current-meter moorings. Forced by the simulated SST, the atmospheric model ismore » fairly successful in reproducing the observed westerlies during El Nino events. The model fails to simulate the easterlies during La Nina 1988. The simulated forcing of the atmosphere is in very poor agreement with the heating derived from cloud convection data. Similarly, the model is fairly successful in reproducing the warm anomalies during El Nino events. However, it fails to simulate the observed cold anomalies. Simulated variations of thermocline depth agree reasonably well with observations. The model simulates zonal current anomalies that are reversing at a dominant 9-month frequency. Projecting altimetric observations on Kelvin and Rossby waves provides an estimate of zonal current anomalies, which is consistent with the ones derived from drifters or from current meter moorings. Unlike the simulated ones, the observed zonal current anomalies reverse from eastward during El Nino events to westward during La Nina events. The simulated 9-month oscillations correspond to a resonant mode of the basin. They can be suppressed by cancelling the wave reflection at the boundaries, or they can be attenuated by increasing the friction in the ocean model. 58 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Molecular Mechanisms behind the Physiological Resistance to Intense Transient Warming in an Iconic Marine Plant

PubMed Central

Marín-Guirao, Lazaro; Entrambasaguas, Laura; Dattolo, Emanuela; Ruiz, Juan M.; Procaccini, Gabriele

2017-01-01

The endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica is highly threatened by the increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Meadows of the species offer a unique opportunity to unravel mechanisms marine plants activate to cope transient warming, since their wide depth distribution impose divergent heat-tolerance. Understanding these mechanisms is imperative for their conservation. Shallow and deep genotypes within the same population were exposed to a simulated heatwave in mesocosms, to analyze their transcriptomic and photo-physiological responses during and after the exposure. Shallow plants, living in a more unstable thermal environment, optimized phenotype variation in response to warming. These plants showed a pre-adaptation of genes in anticipation of stress. Shallow plants also showed a stronger activation of heat-responsive genes and the exclusive activation of genes involved in epigenetic mechanisms and in molecular mechanisms that are behind their higher photosynthetic stability and respiratory acclimation. Deep plants experienced higher heat-induced damage and activated metabolic processes for obtaining extra energy from sugars and amino acids, likely to support the higher protein turnover induced by heat. In this study we identify transcriptomic mechanisms that may facilitate persistence of seagrasses to anomalous warming events and we discovered that P. oceanica plants from above and below the mean depth of the summer thermocline have differential resilience to heat. PMID:28706528

Developments in Climate and Soil Water Storage in the Locality of Poiplie

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pásztorová, Mária

2013-03-01

Climate change is one of the largest threats to the modern world. It is primarily experienced via changes and extreme weather events, including air temperature changes, the uneven distribution of precipitation and an increase in the alteration of torrential short-term precipitation and longer non-precipitation periods. However climate change is not only a change in the weather; it also has a much larger impact on an ecosystem. As a result of expected climate change, a lack of either surface water or groundwater could occur within wetlands; thus, the existence of wetlands and their flora and fauna could be threatened. This submitted work analyses the impact of climate change on the wetland ecosystems of Poiplie, which is situated in the south of Slovakia in the Ipeľ river basin. The area is an important wetland biotope with rare plant and animal species, which mainly live in open water areas, marshes, wet meadows and alluvial forests. To evaluate any climate change, the CGCM 3.1 model, two emission scenarios, the A2 emission scenario (pessimistic) and the B1 emission scenario (optimistic), were used within the regionalization. For simulating the soil water storage, which is one of the components of a soil water regime, the GLOBAL mathematical model was used.

Attraction of the larval predator Elater ferrugineus to the sex pheromone of its prey, Osmoderma eremita, and its implication for conservation biology.

PubMed

Svensson, Glenn P; Larsson, Mattias C; Hedin, Jonas

2004-02-01

Elater ferrugineus is a threatened click beetle inhabiting old hollow trees. Its larvae consume larvae of other saproxylic insects including the threatened scarab beetle Osmoderma eremita. Recently, (R)-(+)-gamma-decalactone was identified as a male-produced sex pheromone of O. eremita. Here we present evidence that E. ferrugineus adults use this odor as a kairomone for location of their prey. In field trapping experiments, significantly more trapping events of E. ferrugineus beetles were observed in Lindgren funnel traps baited with (R)-(+)-gamma-decalactone than in control traps (20 vs. 1, respectively). Analyses of headspace collections from E. ferrugineus beetles indicate that the predator itself does not produce the substance. Both sexes were attracted to the prey pheromone. suggesting that E. ferrugineus males use the odor as an indirect cue for location of mates or of the tree hollows, which make up their habitat. When compared to pitfall traps, the Lindgren system was significantly more effective in trapping E. ferragineus, and no difference could be established for O. eremita, showing the high potential to use odor-based systems to catch both species. We suggest that (R)-(+)-gamma-decalactone could be used as a master signal in monitoring programs for these vulnerable beetle species. which are both regarded as indicators of the associated insect fauna of the threatened habitat of old hollow trees.

Repair of the threatened feminine identity: experience of women with cervical cancer undergoing fertility preservation surgery.

PubMed

Komatsu, Hiroko; Yagasaki, Kaori; Shoda, Rie; Chung, Younghui; Iwata, Takashi; Sugiyama, Juri; Fujii, Takuma

2014-01-01

Fertility preservation is important for women of reproductive age with cervical cancer. The underlying reasons behind suboptimal reproductive results after successful fertility-preserving surgery have not yet been fully revealed. The objective of this study was to explore the experience of fertility preservation with radical trachelectomy from the perspective of women with cervical cancer. We conducted interviews with women with cervical cancer who underwent radical trachelectomy using a Grounded Theory methodology with a theoretical framework of symbolic interactionism. Our findings articulate a process in which feminine identity is first threatened by a diagnosis of cancer, then repaired by fertility preservation with radical trachelectomy, and finally reconstructed after the surgery, through interactions with self, others, and external events in women with cervical cancer. Feeling incomplete as a woman because of the loss of the uterus was a critical factor in the women's feeling that their feminine identity was threatened. Thus, fertility preservation was significant for these women. The meaning of fertility preservation varied among the women, and their life perspectives were therefore distinct after the surgery. Women with cervical cancer who undergo radical trachelectomy experience an identity transformation process, and child bearing is not the only expected outcome of fertility preservation. Nurses should coordinate care through the cancer trajectory. Understanding the identity transformation process helps nurses to assess patients' needs and provide appropriate individual care.

Individuals With OCD Lack Unrealistic Optimism Bias in Threat Estimation.

PubMed

Zetsche, Ulrike; Rief, Winfried; Exner, Cornelia

2015-07-01

Overestimating the occurrence of threatening events has been highlighted as a central cognitive factor in the maintenance of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The present study examined the different facets of this cognitive bias, its underlying mechanisms, and its specificity to OCD. For this purpose, threat estimation, probabilistic classification learning (PCL) and psychopathological measures were assessed in 23 participants with OCD, 30 participants with social phobia, and 31 healthy controls. Whereas healthy participants showed an optimistic expectation bias regarding positive and negative future events, OCD participants lacked such a bias. This lack of an optimistic expectation bias was not specific to OCD. Compared to healthy controls, OCD participants overestimated their personal risk for experiencing negative events, but did not differ from controls in their risk estimation regarding other people. Finally, OCD participants' biases in the prediction of checking-related events were associated with their impairments in learning probabilistic cue-outcome associations in a disorder-relevant context. In sum, the present results add to a growing body of research demonstrating that cognitive biases in OCD are context-dependent. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Simulation of EAST vertical displacement events by tokamak simulation code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Qinglai; Xiao, Bingjia; Guo, Yong; Liu, Lei; Xing, Zhe; Humphreys, D. A.

2016-10-01

Vertical instability is a potentially serious hazard for elongated plasma. In this paper, the tokamak simulation code (TSC) is used to simulate vertical displacement events (VDE) on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST). Key parameters from simulations, including plasma current, plasma shape and position, flux contours and magnetic measurements match experimental data well. The growth rates simulated by TSC are in good agreement with TokSys results. In addition to modeling the free drift, an EAST fast vertical control model enables TSC to simulate the course of VDE recovery. The trajectories of the plasma current center and control currents on internal coils (IC) fit experimental data well.

DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION OF OPTICAL SWITCH MATRIX PERFORMANCE IN COMPUTER NETWORKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imam, Neena; Poole, Stephen W

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present application of a Discrete Event Simulator (DES) for performance modeling of optical switching devices in computer networks. Network simulators are valuable tools in situations where one cannot investigate the system directly. This situation may arise if the system under study does not exist yet or the cost of studying the system directly is prohibitive. Most available network simulators are based on the paradigm of discrete-event-based simulation. As computer networks become increasingly larger and more complex, sophisticated DES tool chains have become available for both commercial and academic research. Some well-known simulators are NS2, NS3, OPNET,more » and OMNEST. For this research, we have applied OMNEST for the purpose of simulating multi-wavelength performance of optical switch matrices in computer interconnection networks. Our results suggest that the application of DES to computer interconnection networks provides valuable insight in device performance and aids in topology and system optimization.« less

Just-in-time connectivity for large spiking networks.

PubMed

Lytton, William W; Omurtag, Ahmet; Neymotin, Samuel A; Hines, Michael L

2008-11-01

The scale of large neuronal network simulations is memory limited due to the need to store connectivity information: connectivity storage grows as the square of neuron number up to anatomically relevant limits. Using the NEURON simulator as a discrete-event simulator (no integration), we explored the consequences of avoiding the space costs of connectivity through regenerating connectivity parameters when needed: just in time after a presynaptic cell fires. We explored various strategies for automated generation of one or more of the basic static connectivity parameters: delays, postsynaptic cell identities, and weights, as well as run-time connectivity state: the event queue. Comparison of the JitCon implementation to NEURON's standard NetCon connectivity method showed substantial space savings, with associated run-time penalty. Although JitCon saved space by eliminating connectivity parameters, larger simulations were still memory limited due to growth of the synaptic event queue. We therefore designed a JitEvent algorithm that added items to the queue only when required: instead of alerting multiple postsynaptic cells, a spiking presynaptic cell posted a callback event at the shortest synaptic delay time. At the time of the callback, this same presynaptic cell directly notified the first postsynaptic cell and generated another self-callback for the next delay time. The JitEvent implementation yielded substantial additional time and space savings. We conclude that just-in-time strategies are necessary for very large network simulations but that a variety of alternative strategies should be considered whose optimality will depend on the characteristics of the simulation to be run.

Just in time connectivity for large spiking networks

PubMed Central

Lytton, William W.; Omurtag, Ahmet; Neymotin, Samuel A; Hines, Michael L

2008-01-01

The scale of large neuronal network simulations is memory-limited due to the need to store connectivity information: connectivity storage grows as the square of neuron number up to anatomically-relevant limits. Using the NEURON simulator as a discrete-event simulator (no integration), we explored the consequences of avoiding the space costs of connectivity through regenerating connectivity parameters when needed – just-in-time after a presynaptic cell fires. We explored various strategies for automated generation of one or more of the basic static connectivity parameters: delays, postsynaptic cell identities and weights, as well as run-time connectivity state: the event queue. Comparison of the JitCon implementation to NEURON’s standard NetCon connectivity method showed substantial space savings, with associated run-time penalty. Although JitCon saved space by eliminating connectivity parameters, larger simulations were still memory-limited due to growth of the synaptic event queue. We therefore designed a JitEvent algorithm that only added items to the queue when required: instead of alerting multiple postsynaptic cells, a spiking presynaptic cell posted a callback event at the shortest synaptic delay time. At the time of the callback, this same presynaptic cell directly notified the first postsynaptic cell and generated another self-callback for the next delay time. The JitEvent implementation yielded substantial additional time and space savings. We conclude that just-in-time strategies are necessary for very large network simulations but that a variety of alternative strategies should be considered whose optimality will depend on the characteristics of the simulation to be run. PMID:18533821

A General and Efficient Method for Incorporating Precise Spike Times in Globally Time-Driven Simulations

PubMed Central

Hanuschkin, Alexander; Kunkel, Susanne; Helias, Moritz; Morrison, Abigail; Diesmann, Markus

2010-01-01

Traditionally, event-driven simulations have been limited to the very restricted class of neuronal models for which the timing of future spikes can be expressed in closed form. Recently, the class of models that is amenable to event-driven simulation has been extended by the development of techniques to accurately calculate firing times for some integrate-and-fire neuron models that do not enable the prediction of future spikes in closed form. The motivation of this development is the general perception that time-driven simulations are imprecise. Here, we demonstrate that a globally time-driven scheme can calculate firing times that cannot be discriminated from those calculated by an event-driven implementation of the same model; moreover, the time-driven scheme incurs lower computational costs. The key insight is that time-driven methods are based on identifying a threshold crossing in the recent past, which can be implemented by a much simpler algorithm than the techniques for predicting future threshold crossings that are necessary for event-driven approaches. As run time is dominated by the cost of the operations performed at each incoming spike, which includes spike prediction in the case of event-driven simulation and retrospective detection in the case of time-driven simulation, the simple time-driven algorithm outperforms the event-driven approaches. Additionally, our method is generally applicable to all commonly used integrate-and-fire neuronal models; we show that a non-linear model employing a standard adaptive solver can reproduce a reference spike train with a high degree of precision. PMID:21031031

The ATLAS Simulation Infrastructure

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2010-09-25

The simulation software for the ATLAS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider is being used for large-scale production of events on the LHC Computing Grid. This simulation requires many components, from the generators that simulate particle collisions, through packages simulating the response of the various detectors and triggers. All of these components come together under the ATLAS simulation infrastructure. In this paper, that infrastructure is discussed, including that supporting the detector description, interfacing the event generation, and combining the GEANT4 simulation of the response of the individual detectors. Also described are the tools allowing the software validation, performance testing, andmore » the validation of the simulated output against known physics processes.« less

Parallel Stochastic discrete event simulation of calcium dynamics in neuron.

PubMed

Ishlam Patoary, Mohammad Nazrul; Tropper, Carl; McDougal, Robert A; Zhongwei, Lin; Lytton, William W

2017-09-26

The intra-cellular calcium signaling pathways of a neuron depends on both biochemical reactions and diffusions. Some quasi-isolated compartments (e.g. spines) are so small and calcium concentrations are so low that one extra molecule diffusing in by chance can make a nontrivial difference in its concentration (percentage-wise). These rare events can affect dynamics discretely in such way that they cannot be evaluated by a deterministic simulation. Stochastic models of such a system provide a more detailed understanding of these systems than existing deterministic models because they capture their behavior at a molecular level. Our research focuses on the development of a high performance parallel discrete event simulation environment, Neuron Time Warp (NTW), which is intended for use in the parallel simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion systems such as intra-calcium signaling. NTW is integrated with NEURON, a simulator which is widely used within the neuroscience community. We simulate two models, a calcium buffer and a calcium wave model. The calcium buffer model is employed in order to verify the correctness and performance of NTW by comparing it to a serial deterministic simulation in NEURON. We also derived a discrete event calcium wave model from a deterministic model using the stochastic IP3R structure.

Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its effects on global and local policies.

Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Murray, Nicholas J

2018-04-01

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range-size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red-list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species' extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale-sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1-1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer-scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid-measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape-scale threats to species and ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

The UBO-TSUFD tsunami inundation model: validation and application to a tsunami case study focused on the city of Catania, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.

2013-07-01

Nowadays numerical models are a powerful tool in tsunami research since they can be used (i) to reconstruct modern and historical events, (ii) to cast new light on tsunami sources by inverting tsunami data and observations, (iii) to build scenarios in the frame of tsunami mitigation plans, and (iv) to produce forecasts of tsunami impact and inundation in systems of early warning. In parallel with the general recognition of the importance of numerical tsunami simulations, the demand has grown for reliable tsunami codes, validated through tests agreed upon by the tsunami community. This paper presents the tsunami code UBO-TSUFD that has been developed at the University of Bologna, Italy, and that solves the non-linear shallow water (NSW) equations in a Cartesian frame, with inclusion of bottom friction and exclusion of the Coriolis force, by means of a leapfrog (LF) finite-difference scheme on a staggered grid and that accounts for moving boundaries to compute sea inundation and withdrawal at the coast. Results of UBO-TSUFD applied to four classical benchmark problems are shown: two benchmarks are based on analytical solutions, one on a plane wave propagating on a flat channel with a constant slope beach; and one on a laboratory experiment. The code is proven to perform very satisfactorily since it reproduces quite well the benchmark theoretical and experimental data. Further, the code is applied to a realistic tsunami case: a scenario of a tsunami threatening the coasts of eastern Sicily, Italy, is defined and discussed based on the historical tsunami of 11 January 1693, i.e. one of the most severe events in the Italian history.

Visual Data-Analytics of Large-Scale Parallel Discrete-Event Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, Caitlin; Carothers, Christopher D.; Mubarak, Misbah

Parallel discrete-event simulation (PDES) is an important tool in the codesign of extreme-scale systems because PDES provides a cost-effective way to evaluate designs of highperformance computing systems. Optimistic synchronization algorithms for PDES, such as Time Warp, allow events to be processed without global synchronization among the processing elements. A rollback mechanism is provided when events are processed out of timestamp order. Although optimistic synchronization protocols enable the scalability of large-scale PDES, the performance of the simulations must be tuned to reduce the number of rollbacks and provide an improved simulation runtime. To enable efficient large-scale optimistic simulations, one has tomore » gain insight into the factors that affect the rollback behavior and simulation performance. We developed a tool for ROSS model developers that gives them detailed metrics on the performance of their large-scale optimistic simulations at varying levels of simulation granularity. Model developers can use this information for parameter tuning of optimistic simulations in order to achieve better runtime and fewer rollbacks. In this work, we instrument the ROSS optimistic PDES framework to gather detailed statistics about the simulation engine. We have also developed an interactive visualization interface that uses the data collected by the ROSS instrumentation to understand the underlying behavior of the simulation engine. The interface connects real time to virtual time in the simulation and provides the ability to view simulation data at different granularities. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework by performing a visual analysis of the dragonfly network topology model provided by the CODES simulation framework built on top of ROSS. The instrumentation needs to minimize overhead in order to accurately collect data about the simulation performance. To ensure that the instrumentation does not introduce unnecessary overhead, we perform a scaling study that compares instrumented ROSS simulations with their noninstrumented counterparts in order to determine the amount of perturbation when running at different simulation scales.« less

Modelling approaches: the case of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Heeg, Bart M S; Damen, Joep; Buskens, Erik; Caleo, Sue; de Charro, Frank; van Hout, Ben A

2008-01-01

Schizophrenia is a chronic disease characterized by periods of relative stability interrupted by acute episodes (or relapses). The course of the disease may vary considerably between patients. Patient histories show considerable inter- and even intra-individual variability. We provide a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of three modelling techniques that have been used in schizophrenia: decision trees, (cohort and micro-simulation) Markov models and discrete event simulation models. These modelling techniques are compared in terms of building time, data requirements, medico-scientific experience, simulation time, clinical representation, and their ability to deal with patient heterogeneity, the timing of events, prior events, patient interaction, interaction between co-variates and variability (first-order uncertainty). We note that, depending on the research question, the optimal modelling approach should be selected based on the expected differences between the comparators, the number of co-variates, the number of patient subgroups, the interactions between co-variates, and simulation time. Finally, it is argued that in case micro-simulation is required for the cost-effectiveness analysis of schizophrenia treatments, a discrete event simulation model is best suited to accurately capture all of the relevant interdependencies in this chronic, highly heterogeneous disease with limited long-term follow-up data.

Variability in reef connectivity in the Coral Triangle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Kleypas, J. A.; Castruccio, F. S.; Watson, J. R.; Curchitser, E. N.

2015-12-01

The Coral Triangle (CT) is not only the global center of marine biodiversity, it also supports the livelihoods of millions of people. Unfortunately, it is also considered the most threatened of all reef regions, with rising temperature and coral bleaching already taking a toll. Reproductive connectivity between reefs plays a critical role in the reef's capacity to recover after such disturbances. Thus, oceanographic modeling efforts to understand patterns of reef connectivity are essential to the effective design of a network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) to conserve marine ecosystems in the Coral Triangle. Here, we combine a Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the Coral Triangle (CT-ROMS) with a Lagrangian particle tracking tool (TRACMASS) to investigate the probability of coral larval transport between reefs. A 47-year hindcast simulation (1960-2006) was used to investigate the variability in larval transport of a broadcasting coral following mass spawning events in April and September. Potential connectivity between reefs was highly variable and stochastic from year to year, emphasizing the importance of decadal or longer simulations in identifying connectivity patterns, key source and sink regions, and thus marine management targets for MPAs. The influence of temperature on realized connectivity (future work) may add further uncertainty to year-to-year patterns of connectivity between reefs. Nonetheless, the potential connectivity results we present here suggest that although reefs in this region are primarily self-seeded, rare long-distance dispersal may promote recovery and genetic exchange between reefs in the region. The spatial pattern of "subpopulations" based solely on the physical drivers of connectivity between reefs closely match regional patterns of biodiversity, suggesting that physical barriers to larval dispersal may be a key driver of reef biodiversity. Finally, 21st Century simulations driven by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) suggest that these major barriers to larval dispersal persist into the future under 8.5 W/m2 of climate forcing, despite some regional changes in connectivity between reefs.

An Aircraft Encounter with Turbulence in the Vicinity of a Thunderstorm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, David W.; Proctor, Fred H.

2003-01-01

Large eddy simulations of three convective turbulence events are investigated and compared with observational data. Two events were characterized with severe turbulence and the other with moderate turbulence. Two of the events occurred during NASA s turbulence flight experiments during the spring of 2002, and the third was an event identified by the Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) Program. Each event was associated with developing or ongoing convection and was characterized by regions of low to moderate radar reflectivity. Model comparisons with observations are favorable. The data sets from these simulations can be used to test turbulence detection sensors.

Simulated Performance of the Orbiting Wide-angle Light Collectors (OWL) Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krizmanic, J. F.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Orbiting Wide-angle Light collectors (OWL) experiment is in NASA's mid-term strategic plan and will stereoscopically image, from equatorial orbit, the air fluorescence signal generated by airshowers induced by the ultrahigh energy (E greater than few x 10(exp 19) eV) component of the cosmic radiation. The use of a space-based platform enables an extremely large event acceptance aperture and thus will allow a high statistics measurement of these rare events. Detailed Monte Carlo simulations are required to quantify the physics potential of the mission as well as optimize the instrumental parameters. This paper reports on the results of the GSFC Monte Carlo simulation for two different, OWL instrument baseline designs. These results indicate that, assuming a continuation of the cosmic ray spectrum (theta approximately E(exp -2.75), OWL could have an event rate of 4000 events/year with E greater than or equal to 10(exp 20) eV. Preliminary results, based upon these Monte Carlo simulations, indicate that events can be accurately reconstructed in the detector focal plane arrays for the OWL instrument baseline designs under consideration.

Cancer as a stressful life event: Perceptions of children with cancer and their peers.

PubMed

Sharp, Katianne M Howard; Lindwall, Jennifer J; Willard, Victoria W; Long, Alanna M; Martin-Elbahesh, Karen M; Phipps, Sean

2017-09-01

The medical traumatic stress model is commonly applied to childhood cancer, assuming that the diagnosis of cancer is a traumatic event. However, to the authors' knowledge, little is known regarding what specifically children perceive as stressful about cancer or how it compares with other stressful events more often experienced by children. Children with cancer (254 children) and demographically similar peers without a history of serious illness (202 children) identified their most stressful life event as part of a diagnostic interview assessing for symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The events identified as most stressful were categorized thematically, with categories established separately for cancer-related and non-cancer-related events. Events also were examined to assess whether they met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) A criteria for PTSD. In the group of children with cancer, 54% described a cancer-related event as the most stressful event they had experienced. Six distinct categories of cancer-related events and 10 categories of non-cancer-related events were identified. The same noncancer events were identified by children in both groups, and occurred at similar frequencies. The percentage of cancer-related events that met DSM A criteria for PTSD differed dramatically depending on which version of the DSM was applied. Children do not necessarily view their cancer experience as their most stressful life event. The findings of the current study suggest that the diagnosis of cancer might be better viewed as a manageable stressor rather than a major trauma, and are consistent with the change in the fifth edition of the DSM to eliminate the diagnosis of a life-threatening illness as a qualifying trauma for PTSD. Cancer 2017;123:3385-93. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Psychological first-aid: a practical aide-memoire.

PubMed

Leach, J

1995-07-01

Despite advances made in recent years in medical first aid, psychiatric intervention, survival training and equipment design, many people still perish quickly during and immediately following a disastrous event. In this study, individuals and groups of survivors of life-threatening events were debriefed and the behavior of those who coped well during such a threat to life were compared with those who did not. The behaviors of those who coped well were distilled into a set of principles for psychological first aid; that is, a series of simple actions for use within a disaster which serves to recover victims to functional behavior as quickly as possible, thus increasing their chance for survival. These principles of psychological first aid have recently been introduced into basic first aid and survival training courses for both military and civilian units.

Lithium carbonate as a treatment for paliperidone extended-release-induced leukopenia and neutropenia in a patient with schizoaffective disorder; a case report.

PubMed

Matsuura, Hiroki; Kimoto, Sohei; Harada, Izumi; Naemura, Satoshi; Yamamuro, Kazuhiko; Kishimoto, Toshifumi

2016-05-26

Antipsychotic drug treatment can potentially lead to adverse events such as leukopenia and neutropenia. Although these events are rare, they represent serious and life-threatening hematological side effects. We present a case study of a patient with schizoaffective disorder in a 50-year-old woman. We report a case of paliperidone extended-release (ER)-induced leukopenia and neutropenia in a female patient with schizoaffective disorder. Initiating lithium carbonate treatment and decreasing the dose of valproic acid improved the observed leukopenia and neutropenia. This treatment did not influence psychotic symptoms. The combination of paliperidone ER and valproic acid induces increased paliperidone ER plasma levels. Lithium carbonate was successfully used to treat paliperidone ER-induced leukopenia and neutropenia.

Modeling a Million-Node Slim Fly Network Using Parallel Discrete-Event Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfe, Noah; Carothers, Christopher; Mubarak, Misbah

As supercomputers close in on exascale performance, the increased number of processors and processing power translates to an increased demand on the underlying network interconnect. The Slim Fly network topology, a new lowdiameter and low-latency interconnection network, is gaining interest as one possible solution for next-generation supercomputing interconnect systems. In this paper, we present a high-fidelity Slim Fly it-level model leveraging the Rensselaer Optimistic Simulation System (ROSS) and Co-Design of Exascale Storage (CODES) frameworks. We validate our Slim Fly model with the Kathareios et al. Slim Fly model results provided at moderately sized network scales. We further scale the modelmore » size up to n unprecedented 1 million compute nodes; and through visualization of network simulation metrics such as link bandwidth, packet latency, and port occupancy, we get an insight into the network behavior at the million-node scale. We also show linear strong scaling of the Slim Fly model on an Intel cluster achieving a peak event rate of 36 million events per second using 128 MPI tasks to process 7 billion events. Detailed analysis of the underlying discrete-event simulation performance shows that a million-node Slim Fly model simulation can execute in 198 seconds on the Intel cluster.« less

Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulation of extreme rainfall events in the upper Ganga Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Osuri, Krishna K.; Mujumdar, Pradeep P.; Niyogi, Dev

2018-02-01

Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall events are necessary for an accurate prediction of floods. Most of the global rainfall products are available at a coarse resolution, rendering them less desirable for extreme rainfall analysis. Therefore, regional mesoscale models such as the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are often used to provide rainfall estimates at fine grid spacing. Modelling heavy rainfall events is an enduring challenge, as such events depend on multi-scale interactions, and the model configurations such as grid spacing, physical parameterization and initialization. With this background, the WRF model is implemented in this study to investigate the impact of different processes on extreme rainfall simulation, by considering a representative event that occurred during 15-18 June 2013 over the Ganga Basin in India, which is located at the foothills of the Himalayas. This event is simulated with ensembles involving four different microphysics (MP), two cumulus (CU) parameterizations, two planetary boundary layers (PBLs) and two land surface physics options, as well as different resolutions (grid spacing) within the WRF model. The simulated rainfall is evaluated against the observations from 18 rain gauges and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT version 7 data. From the analysis, it should be noted that the choice of MP scheme influences the spatial pattern of rainfall, while the choice of PBL and CU parameterizations influences the magnitude of rainfall in the model simulations. Further, the WRF run with Goddard MP, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL and Betts-Miller-Janjic CU scheme is found to perform best in simulating this heavy rain event. The selected configuration is evaluated for several heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events that occurred across different months of the monsoon season in the region. The model performance improved through incorporation of detailed land surface processes involving prognostic soil moisture evolution in Noah scheme compared to the simple Slab model. To analyse the effect of model grid spacing, two sets of downscaling ratios - (i) 1 : 3, global to regional (G2R) scale and (ii) 1 : 9, global to convection-permitting scale (G2C) - are employed. Results indicate that a higher downscaling ratio (G2C) causes higher variability and consequently large errors in the simulations. Therefore, G2R is adopted as a suitable choice for simulating heavy rainfall event in the present case study. Further, the WRF-simulated rainfall is found to exhibit less bias when compared with the NCEP FiNaL (FNL) reanalysis data.

Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Wang, J.; Marohnic, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

We use a novel rainstorm identification and tracking algorithm (Chang et al 2016) to evaluate the effects of using resolved convection on improving how faithfully high-resolution regional simulations capture precipitation characteristics. The identification and tracking algorithm allocates all precipitation to individual rainstorms, including low-intensity events with complicated features, and allows us to decompose changes or biases in total mean precipitation into their causes: event size, intensity, number, and duration. It allows lower threshold for tracking so captures nearly all rainfall and improves tracking, so that events that are clearly meteorologically related are tracked across lifespans up to days. We evaluate a series of dynamically downscaled simulations of the summertime United States at 12 and 4 km under different model configurations, and find that resolved convection offers the largest gains in reducing biases in precipitation characteristics, especially in event size. Simulations with parametrized convection produce event sizes 80-220% too large in extent; with resolved convection the bias is reduced to 30%. The identification and tracking algorithm also allows us to demonstrate that the diurnal cycle in rainfall stems not from temporal variation in the production of new events but from diurnal fluctuations in rainfall from existing events. We show further hat model errors in the diurnal cycle biases are best represented as additive offsets that differ by time of day, and again that convection-permitting simulations are most efficient in reducing these additive biases.

Simulator for Microlens Planet Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ipatov, Sergei I.; Horne, Keith; Alsubai, Khalid A.; Bramich, Daniel M.; Dominik, Martin; Hundertmark, Markus P. G.; Liebig, Christine; Snodgrass, Colin D. B.; Street, Rachel A.; Tsapras, Yiannis

2014-04-01

We summarize the status of a computer simulator for microlens planet surveys. The simulator generates synthetic light curves of microlensing events observed with specified networks of telescopes over specified periods of time. Particular attention is paid to models for sky brightness and seeing, calibrated by fitting to data from the OGLE survey and RoboNet observations in 2011. Time intervals during which events are observable are identified by accounting for positions of the Sun and the Moon, and other restrictions on telescope pointing. Simulated observations are then generated for an algorithm that adjusts target priorities in real time with the aim of maximizing planet detection zone area summed over all the available events. The exoplanet detection capability of observations was compared for several telescopes.

Stressful life events and catechol-O-methyl-transferase (COMT) gene in bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Hosang, Georgina M; Fisher, Helen L; Cohen-Woods, Sarah; McGuffin, Peter; Farmer, Anne E

2017-05-01

A small body of research suggests that gene-environment interactions play an important role in the development of bipolar disorder. The aim of the present study is to contribute to this work by exploring the relationship between stressful life events and the catechol-O-methyl-transferase (COMT) Val 158 Met polymorphism in bipolar disorder. Four hundred eighty-two bipolar cases and 205 psychiatrically healthy controls completed the List of Threatening Experiences Questionnaire. Bipolar cases reported the events experienced 6 months before their worst depressive and manic episodes; controls reported those events experienced 6 months prior to their interview. The genotypic information for the COMT Val 158 Met variant (rs4680) was extracted from GWAS analysis of the sample. The impact of stressful life events was moderated by the COMT genotype for the worst depressive episode using a Val dominant model (adjusted risk difference = 0.09, 95% confidence intervals = 0.003-0.18, P = .04). For the worst manic episodes no significant interactions between COMT and stressful life events were detected. This is the first study to explore the relationship between stressful life events and the COMT Val 158 Met polymorphism focusing solely on bipolar disorder. The results of this study highlight the importance of the interplay between genetic and environmental factors for bipolar depression. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How seismic waves can be used to understand and constrain landslide dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangeney, A.; Favreau, P.; Moretti, L.; Lucas, A.; Le Friant, A.; Bouchut, F.

2010-12-01

Gravitational instabilities such as debris flows, landslide or avalanches play a key role in erosion processes on the Earth’s surface and represent one of the major natural hazard threatening life and property in mountainous, volcanic, seismic and coastal areas. Despite the great amount of experimental, numerical and field studies, the understanding of landslide dynamics is still an open question. In particular, there is no consensus to explain the high mobility of natural avalanches. Field measurements relevant to the dynamics of natural landslides are scarce. This is due to their unpredictability and destructive power and prevents detailed investigation of the mechanical properties of the flowing material. Recent studies have shown that the seismic signal generated by landslides provides a unique way to detect gravitational instabilities and to get information on their dynamics and geometrical characteristics. In particular, Favreau et al. [2009] show that simulation of landslides and generated seismic waves reproduce the main features of the recorded low frequency seismic signal, making it possible to discriminate between possible alternative scenarios for flow dynamics and to provide first estimates of the rheological parameters. We propose here to go further in this direction by investigating the following key questions: What is the effect of the topography and of the landslide volume on the generated seismic signal? What is the sensitivity of the generated seismic signal to the mechanical behavior of the landslide? At what distance and frequency is the point source approximation correct? To address these issues, numerical simulation of two well constrained landslides has been performed: the 2.5 Mm3 Thurwieser landslide that occurred in Italy in 2004 and the 60 Mm3 Boxing Day debris avalanche that occurred in Montserrat in 1997 during the volcanic eruption. For both landslides, simulation shows the major role of topography curvature on the generated seismic signal even for the signal recorded as far as 450 km from the source. Furthermore, comparison between observed and simulated seismic signal in Montserrat provides insights into the time sequence of the gravitational events associated to the eruption.

Monte Carlo generator ELRADGEN 2.0 for simulation of radiative events in elastic ep-scattering of polarized particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akushevich, I.; Filoti, O. F.; Ilyichev, A.; Shumeiko, N.

2012-07-01

The structure and algorithms of the Monte Carlo generator ELRADGEN 2.0 designed to simulate radiative events in polarized ep-scattering are presented. The full set of analytical expressions for the QED radiative corrections is presented and discussed in detail. Algorithmic improvements implemented to provide faster simulation of hard real photon events are described. Numerical tests show high quality of generation of photonic variables and radiatively corrected cross section. The comparison of the elastic radiative tail simulated within the kinematical conditions of the BLAST experiment at MIT BATES shows a good agreement with experimental data. Catalogue identifier: AELO_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AELO_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC license, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1299 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 11 348 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: FORTRAN 77 Computer: All Operating system: Any RAM: 1 MB Classification: 11.2, 11.4 Nature of problem: Simulation of radiative events in polarized ep-scattering. Solution method: Monte Carlo simulation according to the distributions of the real photon kinematic variables that are calculated by the covariant method of QED radiative correction estimation. The approach provides rather fast and accurate generation. Running time: The simulation of 108 radiative events for itest:=1 takes up to 52 seconds on Pentium(R) Dual-Core 2.00 GHz processor.

An accelerated algorithm for discrete stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems using gradient-based diffusion and tau-leaping.

PubMed

Koh, Wonryull; Blackwell, Kim T

2011-04-21

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems enables the investigation of stochastic events arising from the small numbers and heterogeneous distribution of molecular species in biological cells. Stochastic variations in intracellular microdomains and in diffusional gradients play a significant part in the spatiotemporal activity and behavior of cells. Although an exact stochastic simulation that simulates every individual reaction and diffusion event gives a most accurate trajectory of the system's state over time, it can be too slow for many practical applications. We present an accelerated algorithm for discrete stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems designed to improve the speed of simulation by reducing the number of time-steps required to complete a simulation run. This method is unique in that it employs two strategies that have not been incorporated in existing spatial stochastic simulation algorithms. First, diffusive transfers between neighboring subvolumes are based on concentration gradients. This treatment necessitates sampling of only the net or observed diffusion events from higher to lower concentration gradients rather than sampling all diffusion events regardless of local concentration gradients. Second, we extend the non-negative Poisson tau-leaping method that was originally developed for speeding up nonspatial or homogeneous stochastic simulation algorithms. This method calculates each leap time in a unified step for both reaction and diffusion processes while satisfying the leap condition that the propensities do not change appreciably during the leap and ensuring that leaping does not cause molecular populations to become negative. Numerical results are presented that illustrate the improvement in simulation speed achieved by incorporating these two new strategies.

On the Role of Ionospheric Ions in Sawtooth Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, E. J.; Nowrouzi, N.; Kistler, L. M.; Cai, X.; Frey, H. U.

2018-01-01

Simulations have suggested that feedback of heavy ions originating in the ionosphere is an important mechanism for driving sawtooth injections. However, this feedback may only be necessary for events driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), whereas in events driven by streaming interaction regions (SIRs), solar wind variability may suffice to drive these injections. Here we present case studies of two sawtooth events for which in situ data are available in both the magnetotail (Cluster) and the nightside auroral region (FAST), as well as global auroral images (IMAGE). One event, on 1 October 2001, was driven by a CME; the other, on 24 October 2002, was driven by an SIR. The available data do not support the hypothesis that heavy ion feedback is necessary to drive either event. This result is consistent with simulations of the SIR-driven event but disagrees with simulation results for a different CME-driven event. We also find that in an overwhelming majority of the sawtooth injections for which Cluster tail data are available, the O+ observed in the tail comes from the cusp rather than the nightside auroral region, which further casts doubt on the hypothesis that ionospheric heavy ion feedback is the cause of sawtooth injections.

Analysis of Quasi-Elastic e-n and e-p Scattering from Deuterium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balsamo, Alexander; Gilfoyle, Gerard; CLAS12 Collaboration

2017-09-01

One of Jefferson Lab's goals is to unravel the quark-gluon structure of nuclei. We will use the ratio, R, of electron-neutron to electron-proton scattering on deuterium to probe the magnetic form factor of the neutron. We have developed an end-to-end analysis from simulation to extraction of R in quasi-elastic kinematics for an approved experiment with the CLAS12 detector. We focus on neutrons detected in the CLAS12 calorimeters and protons measured with the CLAS12 forward detector. Events were generated with the Quasi-Elastic Event Generator (QUEEG) and passed through the Monte Carlo code gemc to simulate the CLAS12 response. These simulated events were reconstructed using the latest CLAS12 Common Tools. We first match the solid angle for e-n and e-p events. The electron information is used to predict the path of both a neutron and proton through CLAS12. If both particles interact in CLAS12 the e-n and e-p events have the same solid angle. We select QE events by searching for nuclei near the predicted position. An angular cut between the predicted 3-momentum of the nucleon and the measured value, θpq, separates QE and inelastic events. We will show the simulated R as a function of the four-momentum transfer Q2. Work supported by the University of Richmond and the US Department of Energy.

Oropharyngeal Dysphagia Is Strongly Correlated With Apparent Life-Threatening Events.

PubMed

Duncan, Daniel R; Amirault, Janine; Mitchell, Paul D; Larson, Kara; Rosen, Rachel L

2017-08-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of oropharyngeal dysfunction with resultant aspiration in patients admitted after apparent life-threatening events (ALTE) and to determine whether historical characteristics could predict this oropharyngeal dysphagia and aspiration risk. We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients admitted to Boston Children's Hospital between 2012 and 2015 with a diagnosis of ALTE to determine the frequency of evaluation for oropharyngeal dysphagia using video fluoroscopic swallow studies (VFSS) and clinical feeding evaluations, to determine the prevalence of swallowing dysfunction in subjects admitted after ALTE and to compare presenting historical characteristics to swallow study results. A total of 188 children were admitted with a diagnosis of ALTE of which 29% (n = 55) had an assessment of swallowing by VFSS. Of those who had a VFSS, 73% (n = 40) had evidence of aspiration or penetration on VFSS. Of all of the diagnostic tests ordered on patients with ALTEs, the VFSS had the highest rate of abnormalities of any test ordered. None of the historical characteristics of ALTE predicted which patients were at risk for aspiration. In patients who had both clinical feeding evaluations and VFSS, observed clinical feedings incorrectly identified 26% of patients as having no oropharyngeal dysphagia when in fact aspiration was present on VFSS. Oropharyngeal dysphagia with aspiration is the most common diagnosis identified in infants presenting with ALTEs. The algorithm for ALTE should be revised to include an assessment of VFSS as clinical feeding evaluations are inadequate to assess for aspiration.

Simulating Mission Command for Planning and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

mission plan. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Mission Planning, CPM , PERT, Simulation, DES, Simkit, Triangle Distribution, Critical Path 15. NUMBER OF...Battalion Task Force CO Company CPM Critical Path Method DES Discrete Event Simulation FA BAT Field Artillery Battalion FEL Future Event List FIST...management tools that can be utilized to find the critical path in military projects. These are the Critical Path Method ( CPM ) and the Program Evaluation and

Cross-Paradigm Simulation Modeling: Challenges and Successes

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

is also highlighted. 2.1 Discrete-Event Simulation Discrete-event simulation ( DES ) is a modeling method for stochastic, dynamic models where...which almost anything can be coded; models can be incredibly detailed. Most commercial DES software has a graphical interface which allows the user to...results. Although the above definition is the commonly accepted definition of DES , there are two different worldviews that dominate DES modeling today: a

Inflammation-Related Morbidity and Mortality Among HIV-Positive Adults: How Extensive Is It?

PubMed

Hart, Brian B; Nordell, Anna D; Okulicz, Jason F; Palfreeman, Adrian; Horban, Andrzej; Kedem, Eynat; Neuhaus, Jacqueline; Jacobs, David R; Duprez, Daniel A; Neaton, James D

2018-01-01

To determine the rate of grade 4, potentially life-threatening events not attributable to AIDS, cardiovascular disease (CVD), or non-AIDS cancer among participants on antiretroviral therapy and to describe associations of these events with interleukin-6 (IL-6) and D-dimer. Cohort study. HIV-infected participants on antiretroviral therapy (N = 3568) with an HIV-RNA level ≤ 500 copies/mL were followed for grade 4, AIDS, CVD, non-AIDS cancer, and all-cause mortality events. Grade 4 events were further classified masked to biomarker levels as reflecting chronic inflammation-related disease (ChrIRD) or not (non-ChrIRD). Associations of baseline IL-6 and D-dimer with events were studied using Cox models. Over a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 339 participants developed a grade 4 event (22.9 per 1000 person-years); 165 participants developed a ChrIRD grade 4 event (10.7 per 1000 person-years). Grade 4 events were more common than AIDS (54 participants), CVD (132), and non-AIDS cancer (80) events, any of which developed in 252 participants (17.1 per 1000 person-years). Grade 4 and AIDS events were associated with similar risks of death. Higher IL-6 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19 per doubling of biomarker; P = 0.003] and D-dimer (HR = 1.23; P < 0.001) levels were associated with an increased risk of grade 4 events. IL-6 associations were stronger for ChrIRD (HR = 1.38; P < 0.001) than non-ChrIRD grade 4 events (HR = 1.11; P = 0.21). Morbidity and mortality associated with activation of inflammatory and coagulation pathways include conditions other than AIDS, CVD, and non-AIDS cancer events. Effective inflammation-dampening interventions could greatly affect the health of people with HIV.

Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

2015-11-01

Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug gastropathy: new avenues for safety.

PubMed

Roth, Sanford H

2011-01-01

Chronic oral or systemic nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) therapy, ubiquitously used by physicians to treat osteoarthritis-associated pain, is associated with a wide range of symptomatic adverse events, the most frequent and serious of which is gastropathy. Although cardiovascular and renal problems are a very real concern, they are significantly less frequent. These complications can be life-threatening in at-risk populations such as older adults, who are common users of long-term oral systemic NSAID therapy. Topical NSAID formulations deliver effective doses of analgesics directly to the affected joints, thereby limiting systemic exposure and potentially the risk of systemic adverse events, such as gastropathy and serious cardiovascular events. There are currently two topical NSAIDs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for osteoarthritis-associated pain, as well as for the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis. This review discusses the relative safety, and the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, and renal risks of chronic oral or systemic NSAID therapy and topical NSAID formulations in patients with osteoarthritis.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug gastropathy: new avenues for safety

PubMed Central

Roth, Sanford H

2011-01-01

Chronic oral or systemic nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) therapy, ubiquitously used by physicians to treat osteoarthritis-associated pain, is associated with a wide range of symptomatic adverse events, the most frequent and serious of which is gastropathy. Although cardiovascular and renal problems are a very real concern, they are significantly less frequent. These complications can be life-threatening in at-risk populations such as older adults, who are common users of long-term oral systemic NSAID therapy. Topical NSAID formulations deliver effective doses of analgesics directly to the affected joints, thereby limiting systemic exposure and potentially the risk of systemic adverse events, such as gastropathy and serious cardiovascular events. There are currently two topical NSAIDs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for osteoarthritis-associated pain, as well as for the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis. This review discusses the relative safety, and the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, and renal risks of chronic oral or systemic NSAID therapy and topical NSAID formulations in patients with osteoarthritis. PMID:21753867