A laboratory simulation of Arabidopsis seed dormancy cycling provides new insight into its regulation by clock genes and the dormancy-related genes DOG1, MFT, CIPK23 and PHYA.

PubMed

Footitt, Steven; Ölçer-Footitt, Hülya; Hambidge, Angela J; Finch-Savage, William E

2017-08-01

Environmental signals drive seed dormancy cycling in the soil to synchronize germination with the optimal time of year, a process essential for species' fitness and survival. Previous correlation of transcription profiles in exhumed seeds with annual environmental signals revealed the coordination of dormancy-regulating mechanisms with the soil environment. Here, we developed a rapid and robust laboratory dormancy cycling simulation. The utility of this simulation was tested in two ways: firstly, using mutants in known dormancy-related genes [DELAY OF GERMINATION 1 (DOG1), MOTHER OF FLOWERING TIME (MFT), CBL-INTERACTING PROTEIN KINASE 23 (CIPK23) and PHYTOCHROME A (PHYA)] and secondly, using further mutants, we test the hypothesis that components of the circadian clock are involved in coordination of the annual seed dormancy cycle. The rate of dormancy induction and relief differed in all lines tested. In the mutants, dog1-2 and mft2, dormancy induction was reduced but not absent. DOG1 is not absolutely required for dormancy. In cipk23 and phyA dormancy, induction was accelerated. Involvement of the clock in dormancy cycling was clear when mutants in the morning and evening loops of the clock were compared. Dormancy induction was faster when the morning loop was compromised and delayed when the evening loop was compromised. © 2017 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: a framework for Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiaofeng; Schimel, Joshua; Thornton, Peter E

2014-01-01

Microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is one of the fundamental processes of global carbon cycling and it determines the magnitude of microbial biomass in soils. Mechanistic understanding of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls is important for to improve Earth system models ability to simulate carbon-climate feedbacks. Although microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon is broadly considered to be an important parameter, it really comprises two separate physiological processes: one-time assimilation efficiency and time-dependent microbial maintenance energy. Representing of these two mechanisms is crucial to more accurately simulate carbon cycling in soils. In this study, amore » simple modeling framework was developed to evaluate the substrate and environmental controls on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon using a new term: microbial annual active period (the length of microbes remaining active in one year). Substrate quality has a positive effect on microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon: higher substrate quality (lower C:N ratio) leads to higher ratio of microbial carbon to soil organic carbon and vice versa. Increases in microbial annual active period from zero stimulate microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon; however, when microbial annual active period is longer than an optimal threshold, increasing this period decreases microbial biomass. The simulated ratios of soil microbial biomass to soil organic carbon are reasonably consistent with a recently compiled global dataset at the biome-level. The modeling framework of microbial assimilation of soil organic carbon and its controls developed in this study offers an applicable ways to incorporate microbial contributions to the carbon cycling into Earth system models for simulating carbon-climate feedbacks and to explain global patterns of microbial biomass.« less

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Erickson III, David J; Blasing, T J

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO{sub 2} flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO{sub 2} flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonallymore » adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO{sub 2} between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO{sub 2}, but also on the strength of local anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions and geographic position. This work further attests to the need for remotely sensed CO{sub 2} observations from space.« less

GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large-scale North American monsoon in a GCM are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water'sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American i'vionsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of warm season precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

GCM Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large scale North American monsoon in a GCM (General Circulation Model) are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American Monsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of monsoonal precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

2007-01-01

This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems Dr. Melvyn A. Shapiro NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory...formulation, and numerical prediction of the life cycles of synoptic-scale and mesoscale extratropical weather systems, including the influence of planetary...scale inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability on their evolution. These weather systems include: extratropical oceanic and land-falling cyclones

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, Olga; Waugh, D.; Stolarski, R.; Oman, L.

2016-01-01

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2007-06-01

Two long-term coupled ocean-land-atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

DOE PAGES

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

2016-11-16

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Juergen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.;

Validation databases for simulation models: aboveground biomass and net primary productive, (NPP) estimation using eastwide FIA data

Treesearch

Jennifer C. Jenkins; Richard A. Birdsey

2000-01-01

As interest grows in the role of forest growth in the carbon cycle, and as simulation models are applied to predict future forest productivity at large spatial scales, the need for reliable and field-based data for evaluation of model estimates is clear. We created estimates of potential forest biomass and annual aboveground production for the Chesapeake Bay watershed...

NASA's Robotics Mining Competition Provides Undergraduates Full Life Cycle Systems Engineering Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecklein, Jonette

2017-01-01

NASA has held an annual robotic mining competition for teams of university/college students since 2010. This competition is yearlong, suitable for a senior university engineering capstone project. It encompasses the full project life cycle from ideation of a robot design to actual tele-operation of the robot in simulated Mars conditions mining and collecting simulated regolith. A major required element for this competition is a Systems Engineering Paper in which each team describes the systems engineering approaches used on their project. The score for the Systems Engineering Paper contributes 25% towards the team's score for the competition's grand prize. The required use of systems engineering on the project by this competition introduces the students to an intense practical application of systems engineering throughout a full project life cycle.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

Comparison of methods for extracting annual cycle with changing amplitude in climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Q.; Fu, Z.

2017-12-01

Changes of annual cycle gains a growing concern recently. The basic hypothesis regards annual cycle as constant. Climatology mean within a time period is usually used to depict the annual cycle. Obviously this hypothesis contradicts with the fact that annual cycle is changing every year. For the lack of a unified definition about annual cycle, the approaches adopted in extracting annual cycle are various and may lead to different results. The precision and validity of these methods need to be examined. In this work we numerical experiments with known monofrequent annual cycle are set to evaluate five popular extracting methods: fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Nonlinear Mode Decomposition (NMD) and Seasonal trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). Three different types of changing amplitude will be generated: steady, linear increasing and nonlinearly varying. Comparing the annual cycle extracted by these methods with the generated annual cycle, we find that (1) NMD performs best in depicting annual cycle itself and its amplitude change, (2) fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation and EEMD methods are more sensitive to long-term memory(LTM) of generated time series thus lead to overfitting annual cycle and too noisy amplitude, oppositely the result of STL underestimate the amplitude variation (3)all of them can present the amplitude trend correctly in long-time scale but the errors on account of noise and LTM are common in some methods over short time scales.

Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models: Global and Arctic Black Carbon Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmood, Rashed; von Salzen, Knut; Flanner, Mark

2016-06-22

This study quantifies black carbon (BC) processes in three global climate models and one chemistry transport model, with focus on the seasonality of BC transport, emissions, wet and dry deposition in the Arctic. In the models, transport of BC to the Arctic from lower latitudes is the major BC source for this region while Arctic emissions are very small. All models simulated a similar annual cycle of BC transport from lower latitudes to the Arctic, with maximum transport occurring in July. Substantial differences were found in simulated BC burdens and vertical distributions, with CanAM (NorESM) producing the strongest (weakest) seasonalmore » cycle. CanAM also has the shortest annual mean residence time for BC in the Arctic followed by SMHI-MATCH, CESM and NorESM. The relative contribution of wet and dry deposition rates in removing BC varies seasonally and is one of the major factors causing seasonal variations in BC burdens in the Arctic. Overall, considerable differences in wet deposition efficiencies in the models exist and are a leading cause of differences in simulated BC burdens. Results from model sensitivity experiments indicate that scavenging of BC in convective clouds acts to substantially increase the overall efficiency of BC wet deposition in the Arctic, which leads to low BC burdens and a more pronounced seasonal cycle compared to simulations without convective BC scavenging. In contrast, the simulated seasonality of BC concentrations in the upper troposphere is only weakly influenced by wet deposition in stratiform (layer) clouds whereas lower tropospheric concentrations are highly sensitive.« less

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2015-03-01

We perform a land surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies between 6 modern stand-alone land surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by 5 different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99-135 x 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the best current observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 x 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1-128 x 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air temperature based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Simulated Martian pressure cycle based on the sublimation and deposition of polar CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemppinen, Osku; Paton, Mark; Savijärvi, Hannu; Harri, Ari-Matti

2014-05-01

The Martian atmospheric pressure cycle is driven by sublimation and deposition of CO2 at polar caps. In the thin atmosphere of Mars the surface energy balance and thus the phase changes of CO2 are dominated by radiation. Additionally, because the atmosphere is so thin, the annual polar cap cycle can have a large relative effect on the pressure. In this work we utilize radiative transfer models to calculate the amount of radiation incoming to Martian polar latitudes over each sol of the year, as well as the amount of energy lost from the surface due to thermal radiation. The energy budget calculated in this way allows us to estimate the amount of CO2 sublimating and depositing at each hour of the Martian year. Since virtually all of the sublimated CO2 is believed to enter and stay in the atmosphere until depositing, this estimate allows us to calculate the annual pressure cycle, assuming that the CO2 is distributed approximately evenly over the planet. The model is running with physically plausible parameters and producing encouragingly good fits to in situ measured data made by e.g. Viking landers. In the next phase we will validate the simulation runs against polar ice cap thickness measurements as well as compare the calculated CO2 source and sink strengths to the sources and sinks of global atmospheric models.

Model analysis of grazing effect on above-ground biomass and above-ground net primary production of a Mongolian grassland ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuxiang; Lee, Gilzae; Lee, Pilzae; Oikawa, Takehisa

2007-01-01

In this study, we have analyzed the productivity of a grassland ecosystem in Kherlenbayan-Ulaan (KBU), Mongolia under non-grazing and grazing conditions using a new simulation model, Sim-CYCLE grazing. The model was obtained by integrating the Sim-CYCLE [Ito, A., Oikawa, T., 2002. A simulation model of carbon cycle in land ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE): a description based on dry-matter production theory and plot-scale validation. Ecological Modeling, 151, pp. 143-176] and a defoliation formulation [Seligman, N.G., Cavagnaro, J.B., Horno, M.E., 1992. Simulation of defoliation effects on primary production of warm-season, semiarid perennial- species grassland. Ecological Modelling, 60, pp. 45-61]. The results from the model have been validated against a set of field data obtained at KBU showing that both above-ground biomass (AB) and above-ground net primary production ( Np,a) decrease with increasing grazing intensity. The simulated maximum AB for a year maintains a nearly constant value of 1.15 Mg DM ha -1 under non-grazing conditions. The AB decreases and then reaches equilibrium under a stocking rate ( Sr) of 0.4 sheep ha -1 and 0.7 sheep ha -1. The AB decreases all the time if Sr is greater than 0.7 sheep ha -1. These results suggest that the maximum sustainable Sr is 0.7 sheep ha -1. A similar trend is also observed for the simulated Np,a. The annual Np,a is about 1.25 Mg DM ha -1 year -1 and this value is also constant under non-grazing conditions. The annual Np,a decreases and then reaches equilibrium under an Sr of 0.4 sheep ha -1 and 0.7 sheep ha -1, but the Np,a decreases all the time when Sr is greater than 0.7 sheep ha -1. It also indicates that the maximum sustainable Sr is 0.7 sheep ha -1. Transpiration ( ET) and evaporation ( EE) rates were determined by the Penman-Monteith method. Simulated results show that ET decreases with increasing Sr, while EE increases with increasing Sr. At equilibrium, the annual mean evapotranspiration ( E) is 189.11 mm year -1 under non-grazing conditions and 187.46 mm year -1 under an Sr of 0.7 sheep ha -1. This indicates that the water budget of the KBU grassland ecosystem is not significantly affected by grazing.

Longitudinal Biases in the Seychelles Dome Simulated by 34 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, M.; Sasaki, W.; Tozuka, T.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

2012-12-01

The upwelling dome of the southern tropical Indian Ocean is examined by using simulated results from 34 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) including those from the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the current set of the 34 CGCMs, 12 models erroneously produce the upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin while the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (Figure 1). The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity is almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region in these models. This is in contrast with the observations that show Ekman upwelling as the cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models that produce the dome in the eastern basin, the easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall that cause shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and result in a spurious upwelling dome there. In addition, these models tend to overestimate (underestimate) the magnitude of annual (semiannual) cycle of thermocline depth variability in the dome region, which is another consequence of the easterly wind biases in boreal summer-fall. Compared to the CMIP3 models (Yokoi et al. 2009), the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes and magnitudes of annual and semiannual cycles of thermocline depth variability in the dome region. Considering the increasing need to understand regional impacts of climate modes, these results may give serious caveats to interpretation of model results and help in further model developments.; Figure 1: The longitudes of the shallowest annual-mean D20 in 5°S-12°S. The open and filled circles are for the observations and the CGCMs, respectively.

Numerical Simulation of the Water Cycle Change Over the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2003-01-01

We have used numerical models to test the impact of the change in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration on the global circulation, particularly focusing on the hydrologic cycle, namely the global cycling of water and continental recycling of water. We have run four numerical simulations using mean annual SST from the early part of the 20th century (1900-1920) and the later part (1980-2000). In addition, we vary the CO2 concentrations for these periods as well. The duration of the simulations is 15 years, and the spatial resolution is 2 degrees. We use passive tracers to study the geographical sources of water. Surface evaporation from predetermined continental and oceanic regions provides the source of water for each passive tracer. In this way, we compute the percent of precipitation of each region over the globe. This can also be used to estimate precipitation recycling. In addition, we are using the passive tracers to independently compute the global cycling of water (compared to the traditional, Q/P calculation).

Recent advances in lunar base simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johenning, B.; Koelle, H. H.

This article reports about the results of the latest computer runs of a lunar base simulation model. The lunar base consists of 20 facilities for lunar mining, processing and fabrication. The infrastructure includes solar and nuclear power plants, a central workshop, habitat and farm. Lunar products can be used for construction of solar power systems (SPS) or other spacecraft at several space locations. The simulation model evaluates the mass, energy and manpower flows between the elements of the system as well as system cost and cost of products on an annual basis for a given operational period. The 1983 standard model run over a fifty-years life cycle (beginning about the year 2000) was accomplished for a mean annual production volume of 78 180 Mg of hardware products for export resulting in average specific manufacturing cost of 8.4 $/kg and total annual cost of 1.25 billion dollars during the life cycle. The reference space transportation system uses LOX/LH 2 propulsion for which at the average 210 500 Mg LOX per year is produced on the moon. The sensitivity analysis indicates the importance of bootstrapping as well as the influence of market size, space transportation cost and specific resources demand on the mean lunar manufacturing cost. The option using lunar resources turns out to be quite attractive from the economical viewpoint. Systems analysis by this lunar base model and further trade-offs will be a useful tool to confirm this.

Realism of Indian Summer Monsoon Simulation in a Quarter Degree Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salunke, P.; Mishra, S. K.; Sahany, S.; Gupta, K.

2017-12-01

This study assesses the fidelity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) simulations using a global model at an ultra-high horizontal resolution (UHR) of 0.25°. The model used was the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.0 (CESM 1.2.0) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Precipitation and temperature over the Indian region were analyzed for a wide range of space and time scales to evaluate the fidelity of the model under UHR, with special emphasis on the ISM simulations during the period of June-through-September (JJAS). Comparing the UHR simulations with observed data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) over the Indian land, it was found that 0.25° resolution significantly improved spatial rainfall patterns over many regions, including the Western Ghats and the South-Eastern peninsula as compared to the standard model resolution. Convective and large-scale rainfall components were analyzed using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim (ERA-I) data and it was found that at 0.25° resolution, there was an overall increase in the large-scale component and an associated decrease in the convective component of rainfall as compared to the standard model resolution. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall suggests a significant improvement in the phase characteristics simulated by the UHR model as compared to the standard model resolution. Analysis of the annual cycle of rainfall, however, failed to show any significant improvement in the UHR model as compared to the standard version. Surface temperature analysis showed small improvements in the UHR model simulations as compared to the standard version. Thus, one may conclude that there are some significant improvements in the ISM simulations using a 0.25° global model, although there is still plenty of scope for further improvement in certain aspects of the annual cycle of rainfall.

Advanced Training Techniques Using Computer Generated Imagery.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-15

Annual Technical Report for Period- 16 May 1980 - 15 July 1981 LJ Prepared for AIR FORCE OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH Director of Life Sciences Building...Simulation Management Branch, ATC, Randolph AFB, TX 78148, November 1977. Allbee, K. F., Semple C. A.; Aircrew Training Devices Life Cycle Cost and Worth...in Simulator Design and Application, Life Sciences, Inc., 227 Lood 820 NE, Hurst, Texas 76053, AFOSR-TR-77- 0965, 30 September 1976 McDonnell Aircraft

Modeling the spatial-temporal dynamics of net primary production in Yangtze River Basin using IBIS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Z.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Q.; Wei, X.; Jiang, Z.; Zhou, G.; Zhang, X.; Han, J.

2011-01-01

The climate change has significantly affected the carbon cycling in Yangtze River Basin. To better understand the alternation pattern for the relationship between carbon cycling and climate change, the net primary production (NPP) were simulated in the study area from 1956 to 2006 by using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The results showed that the average annual NPP per square meter was about 0.518 kg C in Yangtze River Basin. The high NPP levels were mainly distributed in the southeast area of Sichuan, and the highest value reached 1.05 kg C/m2. The NPP increased based on the simulated temporal trends. The spatiotemporal variability of the NPP in the vegetation types was obvious, and it was depended on the climate and soil condition. We found the drought climate was one of critical factor that impacts the alterations of the NPP in the area by the simulation. ?? 2011 IEEE.

A full annual cycle modeling framework for American black ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Orin J.; McGowan, Conor P.; Devers, Patrick K.; Brook, Rodney W.; Huang, Min; Jones, Malcom; McAuley, Daniel G.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

2016-01-01

American black ducks (Anas rubripes) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density-dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.

The Diurnal Cycle of Clouds and Precipitation at the ARM SGP Site: An Atmospheric State-Based Analysis and Error Decomposition of a Multiscale Modeling Framework Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wei; Marchand, Roger; Fu, Qiang

2017-12-01

Long-term reflectivity data collected by a millimeter cloud radar at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are used to examine the diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation and are compared with the diurnal cycle simulated by a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model. The study uses a set of atmospheric states that were created specifically for the SGP and for the purpose of investigating under what synoptic conditions models compare well with observations on a statistical basis (rather than using case studies or seasonal or longer time scale averaging). Differences in the annual mean diurnal cycle between observations and the MMF are decomposed into differences due to the relative frequency of states, the daily mean vertical profile of hydrometeor occurrence, and the (normalized) diurnal variation of hydrometeors in each state. Here the hydrometeors are classified as cloud or precipitation based solely on the reflectivity observed by a millimeter radar or generated by a radar simulator. The results show that the MMF does not capture the diurnal variation of low clouds well in any of the states but does a reasonable job capturing the diurnal variations of high clouds and precipitation in some states. In particular, the diurnal variations in states that occur during summer are reasonably captured by the MMF, while the diurnal variations in states that occur during the transition seasons (spring and fall) are not well captured. Overall, the errors in the annual composite are due primarily to errors in the daily mean of hydrometeor occurrence (rather than diurnal variations), but errors in the state frequency (that is, the distribution of weather states in the model) also play a significant role.

A mechanistic diagnosis of the simulation of soil CO2 efflux of the ACME Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Wang, G.; Gu, L.; Hanson, P. J.; Mayes, M. A.

2017-12-01

Accurate simulation of the CO2 efflux from soils (i.e., soil respiration) to the atmosphere is critical to project global biogeochemical cycles and the magnitude of climate change in Earth system models (ESMs). Currently, the simulated soil respiration by ESMs still have a large uncertainty. In this study, a mechanistic diagnosis of soil respiration in the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model (ALM) was conducted using long-term observations at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the central U.S. The results showed that the ALM default run significantly underestimated annual soil respiration and gross primary production (GPP), while incorrectly estimating soil water potential. Improved simulations of soil water potential with site-specific data significantly improved the modeled annual soil respiration, primarily because annual GPP was simultaneously improved. Therefore, accurate simulations of soil water potential must be carefully calibrated in ESMs. Despite improved annual soil respiration, the ALM continued to underestimate soil respiration during peak growing seasons, and to overestimate soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons. Simulations involving increased GPP during peak growing seasons increased soil respiration, while neither improved plant phenology nor increased temperature sensitivity affected the simulation of soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons. One potential reason for the overestimation of the soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons may be that the current model structure is substrate-limited, while microbial dormancy under stress may cause the system to become decomposer-limited. Further studies with more microbial data are required to provide adequate representation of soil respiration and to understand the underlying reasons for inaccurate model simulations.

The Modulated Annual Cycle: An Alternative Reference Frame for Climate Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2007-12-01

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle (AC). There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, the annual cycle is taken to be an exact repetition of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this study, we have reexamined the reference frame for anomalies by reexamining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle. We therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of an MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we reexamine some familiar physical processes: in particular, the sea surface temperature (SST) reemergence and the ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. Two additional examples are also presented of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as "decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate" for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. We also point out the drawbacks related to the stationary assumption in previous studies of extreme weather and climate and propose instead the appropriateness of choosing a non-stationary framework to study extreme weather and climate events. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Zhaohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kirtman, Ben P.; Sarachik, E. S.; Huang, Norden E.; Tucker, Compton J.

2008-12-01

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mocko, David M.; Sud, Y. C.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Effects of soil dry-wet cycles and nitrogen fertilization on soil nitrous oxide emission: Simulation using the DNDC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, D.; Chen, H.; Deng, Q.; Wang, G.; Schadt, C. W.

2017-12-01

The major source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) is from croplands. A rapid pulse response of soil N2O emission to precipitation (PPT) is often reported, especially after a drought period. However, how precipitation pattern (i.e. frequency) and intensity, and nitrogen (N) fertilization would interactively influence soil N2O emission has not been well investigated. In this modeling study, we took advantage of a validated biogeochemical model (DNDC) in a cornfield and simulated soil N2O emission under manipulated precipitation treatments and three levels (Low, medium and high) of N application rate. The PPT treatments included precipitation pattern (from very frequent, to medium, and rare dry-wet cycles without changes in total annual precipitation) and intensity (from ambient, to -50%, +50%, and +100% ambient precipitation without changes in precipitation pattern). Results showed that both precipitation pattern and intensity, as well as nitrogen application rate had significant influences on the pulse responses and annual soil N2O emission. Very frequent dry-wet cycles tended to increase soil N2O emission while long drought-wet cycles had lower soil N2O emission, but the timing of N fertilization and precipitation also played an important role in the magnitude of pulse response and annual budget of N2O emission. As expected, soil N2O emission was higher under the high N application and lower under the low N application rate. Double precipitation (+100%) had the highest soil N2O emission, but showed no significant differences with +50% and ambient precipitation. The drought (-50%) treatment significantly reduced soil N2O emission. Annual soil N2O emission could be described as N2O=-6.7436+0.1098N+0.0049PPT, R2=0.86. Our results demonstrate that not only the intensity and pattern of precipitation greatly influence soil N2O emission, but also the timing of rainfall and N fertilization may play an important role in soil N2O pulse responses and annual N2O emission in cornfields. These modeling approaches inform our future work to deploy automated gas flux systems to validate and monitor these rapid N2O responses in the field.

Hemispheric Differences in the Annual Cycle of Tropical Lower Stratosphere Transport and Tracers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, O. V.; Waugh, D. W.; Stolarski, R. S.; Oman, Luke D.; Randel, W. J.; Abalos, M.

2017-01-01

Transport in the tropical lower stratosphere plays a major role in determining the composition of the entire stratosphere. Previous studies that quantified the relative role of transport processes have generally assumed well-mixed tropics and focused on tropical-�wide average characteristics. However, it has recently been shown that there is a hemispheric difference in the annual cycle of tropical lower stratosphere ozone and other tracers, with a larger amplitude in the northern tropics (NT) than in the southern tropics (ST). In this study, we examined the ability of chemistry climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the hemispheric differences in ozone (O3) and other tracers (i.e., hydrochloric acid, or HCl and nitrous oxide, or N2O), and then use the CCMs to examine the cause of these differences. Examination of CCM simulations from the CCMVal-2 project shows that the majority of the CCMs produce the observed feature of a larger annual cycle in the NT than ST O3 and other tracers. However, only around a third of the models produce an ozone annual cycle similar to that observed. Transformed Eulerian Mean analysis of two of the CCMs shows that seasonality in vertical advection drives the seasonality in ST O3 and N2O while seasonality of horizontal mixing drives the seasonality in NT O3 and N2O, with a large increase in horizontal mixing during northern summer (associated with the Asian monsoon). Thus, latitudinal and longitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered to fully understand the balance between transport processes in tropical lower stratosphere.

Responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to drought: modeling sensitivities of the interactive nitrogen and dynamic vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.

2016-12-01

Drought can trigger both immediate and time-lagged responses of terrestrial ecosystems and even cause sizeable positive feedbacks to climate warming. In this study, the influences of interactive nitrogen (N) and dynamic vegetation (DV) on the response of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems of China to drought were investigated using the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5). Model simulations from three configurations of CLM4.5 (C, carbon cycle only; CN, dynamic carbon and nitrogen cycle; CNDV, dynamic carbon and nitrogen cycle as well as dynamic vegetation) between 1961 and 2010 showed that the incorporation of a prognostic N cycle and DV into CLM4.5 reduce the predicted annual means and inter-annual variability of predicted gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP), except for a slight increase in NEP for CNDV compared to CN. These model improvements resulted in better agreement with observations (7.0 PgC yr-1) of annual GPP over the terrestrial ecosystems in China for CLM45-CN (7.5 PgC yr-1) and CLM45-CNDV (7.3 PgC yr-1) than for CLM45-C (10.9 PgC yr-1). Compared to the CLM45-C, the carbon-nitrogen coupling strengthened the predicted response of GPP to drought, resulting in a higher correlation with the standardized precipitation index (SPI; rC = 0.62, rCN = 0.67), but led to a weaker sensitivity of NEP to SPI (rC = 0.51, rCN = 0.45). The CLM45-CNDV had the longest lagged responses of GPP to drought among the three configurations. These results enhance our understanding of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to drought.

Annual Cycle of Surface Longwave Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Pamela E.; Smith, G. Louis; Wilber, Anne C.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

2011-01-01

The annual cycles of upward and downward longwave fluxes at the Earth s surface are investigated by use of the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Data Set. Because of the immense difference between the heat capacity of land and ocean, the surface of Earth is partitioned into these two categories. Principal component analysis is used to quantify the annual cycles. Over land, the first principal component describes over 95% of the variance of the annual cycle of the upward and downward longwave fluxes. Over ocean the first term describes more than 87% of these annual cycles. Empirical orthogonal functions show the corresponding geographical distributions of these cycles. Phase plane diagrams of the annual cycles of upward longwave fluxes as a function of net shortwave flux show the thermal inertia of land and ocean.

Modeling of kinetic, ionospheric and auroral contributions to the 557.7-nm nightglow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, L.; Brunger, M. J.

2010-11-01

Emission of 557.7-nm radiation from the Earth's upper atmosphere is produced by kinetic, ionospheric and auroral excitation of oxygen atoms. The mechanisms and hence the relative contributions of these three sources are not fully understood. A ground-based mid-latitude recording of the 557.7-nm emissions over the previous solar cycle facilitates a comparison of measurements with theoretical predictions. In this paper the predicted kinetic and ionospheric contributions are simulated and compared with the observations. Semi-quantitative agreement is found between the kinetic contribution and the observations, particularly in the presence of annual, semi-annual and solar cycle variations. An observed enhancement in the emissions in the years following solar maximum is not predicted by the kinetic model. However, correlation analysis reveals a component in the observed values that is related to the auroral hemispheric power. When this extra component is included, a better fit to the pre-midnight observations over the full solar cycle is found.

The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

2017-10-01

In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, A.; Moore, J.C.; Cui, Xingquan; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-01-01

 We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135  ×  104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101  × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128  ×  104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-02-01

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Evapotranspiration and water yield over China's landmass from 2000 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Wang, S.; He, H.; Wang, H.; Guan, D.; Zhao, F.; Li, Y.; Hao, Y.

2013-12-01

Terrestrial carbon and water cycles are interactively linked at various spatial and temporal scales. Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a key role in the terrestrial water cycle, altering carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems. The study of ET and its response to climate and vegetation changes is critical in China because water availability is a limiting factor for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems in vast arid and semiarid regions. To constrain uncertainties in ET estimation, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with a newly developed leaf area index (LAI) data set, MODIS land cover, meteorological, and soil data to simulate daily ET and water yield at a spatial resolution of 500 m over China for the period from 2000 to 2010. The spatial and temporal variations of ET and water yield were analyzed. The influences of climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation (land cover types and LAI) on these variations were assessed. Validations against ET measured at five ChinaFLUX sites showed that the BEPS model was able to simulate daily and annual ET well at site scales. Simulated annual ET exhibited a distinguishable southeast to northwest decreasing gradient, corresponding to climate conditions and vegetation types. It increased with the increase of LAI in 74% of China's landmass and was positively correlated with temperature in most areas of southwest, south, east, and central China. The correlation between annual ET and precipitation was positive in the arid and semiarid areas of northwest and north China, but negative in the Tibetan Plateau and humid southeast China. The national annual ET varied from 345.5 mm in 2001 to 387.8 mm in 2005, with an average of 369.8 mm during the study period. The overall rate of increase, 1.7 mm yr-1 (R2 = 0.18, p = 0.19), was mainly driven by the increase of total ET in forests. During 2006-2009, precipitation and LAI decreased widely and consequently caused a detectable decrease in national total ET. Annual ET increased over 62.2% of China's landmass, especially in the cropland areas of the southern Haihe River basin, most of the Huaihe River basin, and the southeastern Yangtze River basin. It decreased in parts of northeast, north, northwest, south China, especially in eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the south of Yunnan Province, and Hainan Province. Reduction in precipitation and increase in ET caused vast regions in China, especially the regions south of Yangtze River, to experience significant decreases in water yield, while some sporadically distributed areas experienced increases in water yield. This study shows that the terrestrial water cycles in China's terrestrial ecosystems appear to have been intensified by recent climatic variability and human induced vegetation changes.

Simulation of annual plankton productivity cycle in the Black Sea by a one-dimensional physical-biological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oguz, Temel; Ducklow, Hugh; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Tugrul, Suleyman; Nezlin, Nikolai P.; Unluata, Umit

1996-07-01

The annual cycle of the plankton dynamics in the central Black Sea is studied by a one-dimensional vertically resolved physical-biological upper ocean model, coupled with the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The biological model involves interactions between the inorganic nitrogen (nitrate, ammonium), phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton biomasses, and detritus. Given a knowledge of physical forcing, the model simulates main observed seasonal and vertical characteristic features, in particular, formation of the cold intermediate water mass and yearly evolution of the upper layer stratification, the annual cycle of production with the fall and the spring blooms, and the subsurface phytoplankton maximum layer in summer, as well as realistic patterns of particulate organic carbon and nitrogen. The computed seasonal cycles of the chlorophyll and primary production distributions over the euphotic layer compare reasonably well with the data. Initiation of the spring bloom is shown to be critically dependent on the water column stability. It commences as soon as the convective mixing process weakens and before the seasonal stratification of surface waters begins to develop. It is followed by a weaker phytoplankton production at the time of establishment of the seasonal thermocline in April. While summer nutrient concentrations in the mixed layer are low enough to limit production, the layer between the thermocline and the base of the euphotic zone provides sufficient light and nutrient to support subsurface phytoplankton development. The autumn bloom takes place sometime between October and December depending on environmental conditions. In the case of weaker grazing pressure to control the growth rate, the autumn bloom shifts to December-January and emerges as the winter bloom, or, in some cases, is connected with the spring bloom to form one unified continuous bloom structure during the January-March period. These bloom structures are similar to the year-to-year variabilities present in the data.

The Martian annual atmospheric pressure cycle - Years without great dust storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tillman, James E.; Johnson, Neal C.; Guttorp, Peter; Percival, Donald B.

1993-01-01

A model of the annual cycle of pressure on Mars for a 2-yr period, chosen to include one year at the Viking Lander 2 and to minimize the effect of great dust storms at the 22-deg N Lander 1 site, was developed by weighted least squares fitting of the Viking Lander pressure measurements to an annual mean, and fundamental and the first four harmonics of the annual cycle. Close agreement was obtained between the two years, suggesting that an accurate representation of the annual CO2 condensation-sublimation cycle can be established for such years. This model is proposed as the 'nominal' Martian annual pressure cycle, and applications are suggested.

A note on the annual cycles of surface heat balance and temperature over a continent. [North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Crane, G.

1974-01-01

A surface heating function, defined as the ratio of the time derivative of the mean annual temperature curve to the surface heat balance, is computed from the annual temperature range and heat balance data for the North American continent. An annual cycle of the surface heat balance is then reconstructed from the surface heating function and the annual temperature curve, and an annual cycle of evaporative plus turbulent heat loss is recomputed from the annual cycles of radiation balance and surface heat balance for the continent. The implications of these results for long range weather forecasting are discussed.

Unraveling the martian water cycle with high-resolution global climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pottier, Alizée; Forget, François; Montmessin, Franck; Navarro, Thomas; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Szantai, André; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste

2017-07-01

Global climate modeling of the Mars water cycle is usually performed at relatively coarse resolution (200 - 300km), which may not be sufficient to properly represent the impact of waves, fronts, topography effects on the detailed structure of clouds and surface ice deposits. Here, we present new numerical simulations of the annual water cycle performed at a resolution of 1° × 1° (∼ 60 km in latitude). The model includes the radiative effects of clouds, whose influence on the thermal structure and atmospheric dynamics is significant, thus we also examine simulations with inactive clouds to distinguish the direct impact of resolution on circulation and winds from the indirect impact of resolution via water ice clouds. To first order, we find that the high resolution does not dramatically change the behavior of the system, and that simulations performed at ∼ 200 km resolution capture well the behavior of the simulated water cycle and Mars climate. Nevertheless, a detailed comparison between high and low resolution simulations, with reference to observations, reveal several significant changes that impact our understanding of the water cycle active today on Mars. The key northern cap edge dynamics are affected by an increase in baroclinic wave strength, with a complication of northern summer dynamics. South polar frost deposition is modified, with a westward longitudinal shift, since southern dynamics are also influenced. Baroclinic wave mode transitions are observed. New transient phenomena appear, like spiral and streak clouds, already documented in the observations. Atmospheric circulation cells in the polar region exhibit a large variability and are fine structured, with slope winds. Most modeled phenomena affected by high resolution give a picture of a more turbulent planet, inducing further variability. This is challenging for long-period climate studies.

How well the Reliable Ensemble Averaging Method (REA) for 15 CMIP5 GCMs simulations works for Mexico?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colorado, G.; Salinas, J. A.; Cavazos, T.; de Grau, P.

2013-05-01

15 CMIP5 GCMs precipitation simulations were combined in a weighted ensemble using the Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) method, obtaining the weight of each model. This was done for a historical period (1961-2000) and for the future emissions based on low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiating forcing for the period 2075-2099. The annual cycle of simple ensemble of the historical GCMs simulations, the historical REA average and the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.1) database was compared in four zones of México. In the case of precipitation we can see the improvements by using the REA method, especially in the two northern zones of México where the REA average is more close to the observations (CRU) that the simple average. However in the southern zones although there is an improvement it is not as good as it is in the north, particularly in the southeast where instead of the REA average is able to reproduce qualitatively good the annual cycle with the mid-summer drought it was greatly underestimated. The main reason is because the precipitation is underestimated for all the models and the mid-summer drought do not even exists in some models. In the REA average of the future scenarios, as we can expected, the most drastic decrease in precipitation was simulated using the RCP8.5 especially in the monsoon area and in the south of Mexico in summer and in winter. In the center and southern of Mexico however, the same scenario in autumn simulates an increase of precipitation.

Simulating the Effects of Widespread Adoption of Efficient Irrigation Technologies on Irrigation Water Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, A. D.; Deines, J. M.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

Irrigation technologies are changing: becoming more efficient, better managed, and capable of more precise targeting. Widespread adoption of these technologies is shifting water balances and significantly altering the hydrologic cycle in some of the largest irrigated regions in the world, such as the High Plains Aquifer of the USA. There, declining groundwater resources, increased competition from alternate uses, changing surface water supplies, and increased subsidies and incentives are pushing farmers to adopt these new technologies. Their decisions about adoption, irrigation extent, and total water use are largely unrecorded, limiting critical data for what is the single largest consumptive water use globally. Here, we present a novel data fusion of an annual water use and technology database in Kansas with our recent remotely-sensed Annual Irrigation Maps (AIM) dataset to produce a spatially and temporally complete record of these decisions. We then use this fusion to drive the Landscape Hydrologic Model (LHM), which simulates the full terrestrial water cycle at hourly timesteps for large regions. The irrigation module within LHM explicitly simulates each major irrigation technology, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of changes in irrigation water use over time and space. Here we simulate 2000 - 2016, a period which includes a major increase in the use of modern efficient irrigation technology (such as Low Energy Precision Application, LEPA) as well as both drought and relative wet periods. Impacts on water use are presented through time and space, along with implications for adopting these technologies across the USA and globally.

An emission module for ICON-ART 2.0: implementation and simulations of acetone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weimer, Michael; Schröter, Jennifer; Eckstein, Johannes; Deetz, Konrad; Neumaier, Marco; Fischbeck, Garlich; Hu, Lu; Millet, Dylan B.; Rieger, Daniel; Vogel, Heike; Vogel, Bernhard; Reddmann, Thomas; Kirner, Oliver; Ruhnke, Roland; Braesicke, Peter

2017-06-01

We present a recently developed emission module for the ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic)-ART (Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) modelling framework. The emission module processes external flux data sets and increments the tracer volume mixing ratios in the boundary layer accordingly. The performance of the emission module is illustrated with simulations of acetone, using a simplified chemical depletion mechanism based on a reaction with OH and photolysis only. In our model setup, we calculate a tropospheric acetone lifetime of 33 days, which is in good agreement with the literature. We compare our results with ground-based as well as with airborne IAGOS-CARIBIC measurements in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS) in terms of phase and amplitude of the annual cycle. In all our ICON-ART simulations the general seasonal variability is well represented but uncertainties remain concerning the magnitude of the acetone mixing ratio in the UTLS region. In addition, the module for online calculations of biogenic emissions (MEGAN2.1) is implemented in ICON-ART and can replace the offline biogenic emission data sets. In a sensitivity study we show how different parametrisations of the leaf area index (LAI) change the emission fluxes calculated by MEGAN2.1 and demonstrate the importance of an adequate treatment of the LAI within MEGAN2.1. We conclude that the emission module performs well with offline and online emission fluxes and allows the simulation of the annual cycles of emissions-dominated substances.

Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Datasets to Evaluate Climate Models in Simulating Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Tropical Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hailong; Burleyson, Casey D.; Ma, Po-Lun

We use the long-term Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) datasets collected at the three Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites as a tropical testbed to evaluate the ability of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) to simulate the various types of clouds, their seasonal and diurnal variations, and their impact on surface radiation. We conducted a series of CAM5 simulations at various horizontal grid spacing (around 2°, 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25°) with meteorological constraints from reanalysis. Model biases in the seasonal cycle of cloudiness are found to be weakly dependent on model resolution. Positive biases (up to 20%) in the annual mean totalmore » cloud fraction appear mostly in stratiform ice clouds. Higher-resolution simulations do reduce the positive bias in the frequency of ice clouds, but they inadvertently increase the negative biases in convective clouds and low-level liquid clouds, leading to a positive bias in annual mean shortwave fluxes at the sites, as high as 65 W m-2 in the 0.25° simulation. Such resolution-dependent biases in clouds can adversely lead to biases in ambient thermodynamic properties and, in turn, feedback on clouds. Both the CAM5 model and ARM observations show distinct diurnal cycles in total, stratiform and convective cloud fractions; however, they are out-of-phase by 12 hours and the biases vary by site. Our results suggest that biases in deep convection affect the vertical distribution and diurnal cycle of stratiform clouds through the transport of vapor and/or the detrainment of liquid and ice. We also found that the modelled gridmean surface longwave fluxes are systematically larger than site measurements when the grid that the ARM sites reside in is partially covered by ocean. The modeled longwave fluxes at such sites also lack a discernable diurnal cycle because the ocean part of the grid is warmer and less sensitive to radiative heating/cooling compared to land. Higher spatial resolution is more helpful is this regard. Our testbed approach can be easily adapted for the evaluation of new parameterizations being developed for CAM5 or other global or regional model simulations at high spatial resolutions.« less

Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2013-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

Simulating coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics following bark beetle outbreaks in the western United States

Treesearch

Steven L. Edburg; Jeffrey A. Hicke; David M. Lawrence; Peter E. Thornton

2011-01-01

Insect outbreaks are major ecosystem disturbances, affecting a similar area as forest fires annually across North America. Tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks alters carbon cycling in the first several years following the disturbance by reducing stand-level primary production and by increasing the amount of dead organic matter available for decomposition....

Three-Dimensional Model Synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, I.; Prather, M.; John, J.; Lerner, J.; Matthews, E.

1991-01-01

A synthesis of the global methane cycle is presented to attempt to generate an accurate global methane budget. Methane-flux measurements, energy data, and agricultural statistics are merged with databases of land-surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. The sources and sinks of methane are estimated based on atmospheric methane composition and variations, and a global 3D transport model simulates the corresponding atmospheric responses. The geographic and seasonal variations of candidate budgets are compared with observational data, and the available observations are used to constrain the plausible methane budgets. The preferred budget includes annual destruction rates and annual emissions for various sources. The lack of direct flux measurements in the regions of many of these fluxes makes the unique determination of each term impossible. OH oxidation is found to be the largest single term, although more measurements of this and other terms are recommended.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

The Impact of Sea Ice Concentration Accuracies on Climate Model Simulations with the GISS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.; Rind, David; Healy, Richard J.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Discharge Simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Ahlström, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Huang, M.; Li, Y.; Li, X.; Lomas, M.; Peylin, P. P.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Wang, L.

2015-12-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modelled well in the low and mid latitudes, but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore the 30-year trend of discharge is also under-estimated. For the inter-annual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e. models account for 50% of observed inter-annual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change, but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modelling capability, a regional-weighted average of multi-model ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl O.

2014-03-01

Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks.

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Recent trends in vegetation greenness in China significantly altered annual evapotranspiration and water yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yibo; Xiao, Jingfeng; Ju, Weimin; Xu, Ke; Zhou, Yanlian; Zhao, Yuntai

2016-09-01

There has been growing evidence that vegetation greenness has been increasing in many parts of the northern middle and high latitudes including China during the last three to four decades. However, the effects of increasing vegetation greenness particularly afforestation on the hydrological cycle have been controversial. We used a process-based ecosystem model and a satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) dataset to examine how the changes in vegetation greenness affected annual evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield for China over the period from 2000 to 2014. Significant trends in vegetation greenness were observed in 26.1% of China’s land area. We used two model simulations driven with original and detrended LAI, respectively, to assess the effects of vegetation ‘greening’ and ‘browning’ on terrestrial ET and water yield. On a per-pixel basis, vegetation greening increased annual ET and decreased water yield, while vegetation browning reduced ET and increased water yield. At the large river basin and national scales, the greening trends also had positive effects on annual ET and had negative effects on water yield. Our results showed that the effects of the changes in vegetation greenness on the hydrological cycle varied with spatial scale. Afforestation efforts perhaps should focus on southern China with larger water supply given the water crisis in northern China and the negative effects of vegetation greening on water yield. Future studies on the effects of the greenness changes on the hydrological cycle are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eter, Ahmad Adel

2011-12-01

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present and projected future climate conditions: a models' intercomparison perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, V.

2010-09-01

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several GCMs and RCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report on their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for present and (in the case of the GCMs) projected future climate conditions. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta. This occurs in spite of common nesting of the RCMs into the same run of the same AGCM, and even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. We propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. In the case of the GCMs, the span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are, surprisingly, comparable to those of the RCMs. Both RCMs and GCMs greatly outperform the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses in representing the present climate conditions. The reanalyses result to be largely inadequate for describing the hydrology of the Danube river basin, both for the reconstruction of the long-term averages and of the seasonal cycle. The reanalyses cannot in any sense be used as verification. In global warming conditions, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. We note that for some of the diagnostics the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of "average" model, and it often falls between the models’ clusters. We suggest that these results should be carefully considered in the perspective of auditing climate models and assessing their ability to simulate future climate changes.

Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel climate model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

2018-05-01

A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

How well do CMIP5 Climate Models Reproduce the Hydrologic Cycle of the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, J.; Mascaro, G.

2017-12-01

The Colorado River, which is the primary source of water for nearly 40 million people in the arid Southwestern states of the United States, has been experiencing an extended drought since 2000, which has led to a significant reduction in water supply. As the water demands increase, one of the major challenges for water management in the region has been the quantification of uncertainties associated with streamflow predictions in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) under potential changes of future climate. Hence, testing the reliability of model predictions in the CRB is critical in addressing this challenge. In this study, we evaluated the performances of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) and 4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical properties of the hydrologic cycle in the CRB. We evaluated the water balance components at four nested sub-basins along with the inter-annual and intra-annual changes of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), runoff (R) and temperature (T) from 1979 to 2005. Most of the models captured the net water balance fairly well in the most-upstream basin but simulated a weak hydrological cycle in the evaporation channel at the downstream locations. The simulated monthly variability of P had different patterns, with correlation coefficients ranging from -0.6 to 0.8 depending on the sub-basin and the models from same parent institution clustering together. Apart from the most-upstream sub-basin where the models were mainly characterized by a negative seasonal bias in SON (of up to -50%), most of them had a positive bias in all seasons (of up to +260%) in the other three sub-basins. The models, however, captured the monthly variability of T well at all sites with small inter-model variabilities and a relatively similar range of bias (-7 °C to +5 °C) across all seasons. Mann-Kendall test was applied to the annual P and T time-series where majority of the models and all observed products displayed nonsignificant trends for annual P. In contrast, more than half of the models exhibited significant trend with annual T as the observations. The results of this work provide support when selecting climate models for impact studies required to develop policies and plan investments aimed at ensuring water sustainability in the CRB.

Examining Neosho madtom reproductive biology using ultrasound and artificial photothermal cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bryan, J.L.; Wildhaber, M.L.; Noltie, Douglas B.

2005-01-01

We examined whether extended laboratory simulation of natural photothermal conditions could stimulate reproduction in the Neosho madtom Noturus placidus, a federally threatened species. For 3 years, a captive population of Neosho madtoms was maintained under simulated natural conditions and monitored routinely with ultrasound for reproductive condition. Female Neosho madtoms cycled in and out of spawning condition, producing and absorbing oocytes annually. Internal measurements made by means of ultrasound indicated the summer mean oocyte size remained consistent over the years, although estimated fecundity increased with increasing fish length. In the summer of 2001, after 3 years in the simulated natural environment, 13 out of 41 fish participated in 10 spawnings. Simulation of the natural photothermal environment, coupled with within-day temperature fluctuations during the spring rise, seemed important for the spawning of captive Neosho madtoms. The use of ultrasound to assess the reproductive status in Neosho madtoms was effective and resulted in negligible stress or injury to the fish. These procedures may facilitate future culture of this species and other madtoms Noturus spp., especially when species are rare, threatened, or endangered. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Influence of Leaf Area Index Prescriptions on Simulations of Heat, Moisture, and Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kala, Jatin; Decker, Mark; Exbrayat, Jean-Francois; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Abramowitz, Gab; Mocko, David

2013-01-01

Leaf-area index (LAI), the total one-sided surface area of leaf per ground surface area, is a key component of land surface models. We investigate the influence of differing, plausible LAI prescriptions on heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLEv1.4b) model over the Australian continent. A 15-member ensemble monthly LAI data-set is generated using the MODIS LAI product and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation. Offline simulations lasting 29 years (1980-2008) are carried out at 25 km resolution with the composite monthly means from the MODIS LAI product (control simulation) and compared with simulations using each of the 15-member ensemble monthly-varying LAI data-sets generated. The imposed changes in LAI did not strongly influence the sensible and latent fluxes but the carbon fluxes were more strongly affected. Croplands showed the largest sensitivity in gross primary production with differences ranging from -90 to 60 %. PFTs with high absolute LAI and low inter-annual variability, such as evergreen broadleaf trees, showed the least response to the different LAI prescriptions, whilst those with lower absolute LAI and higher inter-annual variability, such as croplands, were more sensitive. We show that reliance on a single LAI prescription may not accurately reflect the uncertainty in the simulation of the terrestrial carbon fluxes, especially for PFTs with high inter-annual variability. Our study highlights that the accurate representation of LAI in land surface models is key to the simulation of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Hence this will become critical in quantifying the uncertainty in future changes in primary production.

The emission of BTEX compounds during movement of passenger car in accordance with the NEDC.

PubMed

Adamović, Dragan; Dorić, Jovan; Vojinović Miloradov, Mirjana; Adamović, Savka; Pap, Sabolč; Radonić, Jelena; Turk Sekulić, Maja

2018-05-20

The results of the research in the field of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene isomers (BTEX) concentrations in exhaust gases of spark ignition engines under different operating conditions are presented in this paper. The aim of this paper is to gain a clearer insight into the impact of different engine working parameters on the concentrations of BTEX. The experimental investigation has been performed on the SCHENCK 230 W test stand with the controlled IC engine. The engine operating points have been chosen based on the results of a simulation and they are considered as the typical driving conditions according to the New European Driving Cycle. Concentration levels of BTEX compounds in exhaust gas mixtures have been determined by gas chromatography technique by using the combination of Supelcowax 10-Polyethylene glycol column and the PID detector. Based on the experimental research results, the emission model of BTEX compounds has been defined by the simulation of movement of a Fiat Punto Classic passenger car in accordance with the NEDC cycle. Using the results obtained within the simulation, the official statistics on the number of gasoline-powered cars on the territory of the Republic of Serbia and the European Commission data on the annual distance traveled by car, the amounts of BTEX compounds emitted annually per car have been estimated, as well as the emissions of the entire Serbian car fleet. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

“Modeling Trends in Air Pollutant Concentrations over the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Regional model calculations over annual cycles have pointed to the need for accurately representing impacts of long-range transport. Linking regional and global scale models have met with mixed success as biases in the global model can propagate and influence regional calculations and often confound interpretation of model results. Since transport is efficient in the free-troposphere and since simulations over Continental scales and annual cycles provide sufficient opportunity for “atmospheric turn-over”, i.e., exchange between the free-troposphere and the boundary-layer, a conceptual framework is needed wherein interactions between processes occurring at various spatial and temporal scales can be consistently examined. The coupled WRF-CMAQ model is expanded to hemispheric scales and model simulations over period spanning 1990-current are analyzed to examine changes in hemispheric air pollution resulting from changes in emissions over this period. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for pr

Inter-annual and Long-term Temperature Variations in the Mesopause Region at High Latitudes Generated by the Stratospheric QBO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, Frank T.

2007-01-01

The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) simulates the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) that dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at low latitudes. In the model, the QBO is generated with parameterized small-scale gravity waves (GW), which are partially augmented in 3D with planetary waves owing to baroclinic instability. Due to GW filtering, the QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, evident in UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, even in simulations with latitude-independent wave source, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes some of the QBO energy to focus it partially onto the Polar Regions. The resulting QBO temperature variations away from the equator tend to increase at higher altitudes to produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region -- and our 3D model simulations show that the effect is variable from year to year and can produce large differences between the two hemispheres, presumably due to interactions involving the seasonal variations. Modeling studies with the NSM have shown that long-term variations can also be generated by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles through OW node-filtering. A 30-month QBO, optimally synchronized by the 6-month Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), thus produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation -- and observational evidence for that has been provided by a recent analysis of stratospheric NCEP data. In a simulation with the 2D version of the NSM, this SD oscillation extends into the upper mesosphere, and we present results to show that the related temperature variations could contribute significantly to the long-term variations of the polar mesopause region. Quasi-decadal variations could furthermore arise from the modeled solar cycle modulations of the QBO and 12-month annual oscillation. Our numerical results are discussed in the context of the observed low summer temperatures reproduced by the model, to demonstrate that the above interannual and long-term variations could contribute significantly to the climatology of Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC) investigated by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission.

Simulation of Changes in the Near-Surface Soil Freeze/Thaw Cycle Using CLM4.5 With Four Atmospheric Forcing Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Donglin; Wang, Aihui; Li, Duo; Hua, Wei

2018-03-01

Change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle is critical for assessments of hydrological activity, ecosystems, and climate change. Previous studies investigated the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle change mostly based on in situ observations and satellite monitoring. Here numerical simulation method is tested to estimate the long-term change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle in response to recent climate warming for its application to predictions. Four simulations are performed at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2009 using the Community Land Model version 4.5, each driven by one of the four atmospheric forcing data sets (i.e., one default Climate Research Unit-National Centers for Environmental Prediction [CRUNCEP] and three newly developed Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim). The observations from 299 weather stations in both Russia and China are employed to validate the simulated results. The results show that all simulations reasonably reproduce the observed variations in the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration (the correlation coefficients range from 0.47 to 0.99, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies range from 0.19 to 0.98). Part of the simulations also exactly simulate the trends of the ground temperature, the freeze start and end dates, and the freeze duration. Of the four simulations, the results from the simulation using the CRUNCEP data set show the best overall agreement with the in situ observations, indicating that the CRUNCEP data set could be preferentially considered as the basic atmospheric forcing data set for future prediction. The simulated area-averaged annual freeze duration shortened by 8.03 days on average from 1979 to 2009, with an uncertainty (one standard deviation) of 0.67 days caused by the different atmospheric forcing data sets. These results address the performance of numerical model in simulating the long-term changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle and the role of different atmospheric forcing data sets in the simulation, which are useful for the prediction of future freeze/thaw dynamics.

Towards reconstructing herbaceous biome dynamics and associated precipitation in Africa: insights from the classification of grass morphological traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasturel, Marine; Alexandre, Anne; Novello, Alice; Moctar Dieye, Amadou; Wele, Abdoulaye; Paradis, Laure; Hely, Christelle

2014-05-01

Inter-tropical herbaceous ecosystems occupy a 1/5th of terrestrial surface, a half of the African continent, and are expected to extend in the next decades. Dynamic of these ecosystems is simulated with poor accuracy by Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). One of the bias results from the fact that the diversity of the grass layer dominating these herbaceous ecosystems is poorly taken into account. Mean annual precipitation and the length of the dry season are the main constrains of the dynamics of these ecosystems. Conversely, changes in vegetation affect the water cycle. Inaccuracy in herbaceous ecosystem simulation thus impacts simulations of the water cycle (including precipitation) and vice versa. In order to increase our knowledge of the relationships between grass morphological traits, taxonomy, biomes and climatic niches in Western and South Africa, a 3-step methodology was followed: i) values of culm height, leaf length and width of dominant grass species from Senegal were gathered from flora and clustered using the Partition Around Medoids (PAM) method; ii) trait group ability to sign climatic domains and biomes was assessed using Kruskal-Wallis tests; iii) genericity and robustness of the trait groups were evaluated through their application to Chadian and South African botanical datasets. Results show that 8 grass trait groups are present either in Senegal, Chad or South Africa. These 8 trait groups are distributed along mean annual precipitation and dry season length gradients. The combination of three of them allow to discriminate mean annual precipitation domains (<250, 250-600, 600-1000 and >1000 mm) and herbaceous biomes (steppes, savannas, South African grasslands and Nama-Karoo). With these results in hand, grass Plant Functional Types (PFTs) of the DGMV LPJ-GUESS will be re-parameterized and particular attention will be given to the herbaceous biomass assigned to each grass trait group. Simultaneously, relationships between grass trait groups and phytolith vegetation proxies will be quantified in order to reconstruct the past dynamics of herbaceous ecosystems and associated mean annual precipitation domains.

Sub- and Quasi-Centurial Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Data Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komitov, B.; Sello, S.; Duchlev, P.; Dechev, M.; Penev, K.; Koleva, K.

2016-07-01

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) the Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri, 2) the Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995 AD), 3) the simulated extended sunspot number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090-2002 AD), 4) the simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002 AD), 5) the Meudon filament series (1919-1991 AD). Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in standard and ``scanning window'' regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. A strong cycle with a mean duration of 55-60 years is found to exist in all series. On the other hand, a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ˜200-year cycles are obtained in all of these series except in the Ri one. The high importance of the long term solar activity dynamics for the aims of solar dynamo modeling and predictions is especially noted.

Dynamics of upwelling annual cycle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Chiao; Jin, Fei-Fei; Wu, Chau-Ron; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-04-01

The annual upwelling is an important component of the equatorial Atlantic annual cycle. A simple theory is proposed using the framework of Zebiak-Cane (ZC) ocean model for insights into the dynamics of the upwelling annual cycle. It is demonstrated that in the Atlantic equatorial region this upwelling is dominated by Ekman processing in the west, whereas in the east it is primarily owing to shoaling and deepening of the thermocline resulting from equatorial mass meridional recharge/discharge and zonal redistribution processes associated with wind-driven equatorial ocean waves. This wind-driven wave upwelling plays an important role in the development of the annual cycle in the sea surface temperature of the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Atlantic.

Annual and longitudinal variations of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lolk, Nina K.

1992-01-01

The climatological annual cycle of the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) simulated by an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was studied. The longitudinal variation of transports, degree of geostrophy, and the relationship between Ekman pumping and vertical displacement of the thermocline were emphasized. The longitudinal variation was explored using six sections along 150 deg E, 180 deg, 160 deg W, 140 deg W, 125 deg W, and 110 deg W. A primitive equation OGCM of the Pacific Ocean was run for three years and the fields used were from the third year. The fields consisted of zonal, meridional, and vertical current components and temperature and salinity averaged every three days. The model was forced with the Hellerman and Rosenstein climatological wind stress. The mean annual eastward transport (19.9 Sv) was largest at 160 deg W. The maximum-current boundaries along 160 deg W were 9.2 deg N (1.0 deg), 5.1 deg N (1.1 deg), and 187 m (90.6 m). The annual-cycle amplitude of the NECC was greatest between 160 deg W and 140 deg W. Although the NECC is geostrophic to the first order, deviations from geostrophy were found in the boreal spring and summer near the southern boundary and near the surface. Meridional local acceleration played a role between 3 deg N-5 deg N.

Possible Changes in the Characteristics of the Rainy Season over Northern South America: Results from a Regional Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasconcelos, Francisco; Costa, Alexandre; Gandu, Adilson; Sales, Domingo; Araújo, Luiz

2013-04-01

Regional Climate Simulations were performed with RAMS6.0 to evaluate possible changes in the behaviour of the rainy season over the Amazon region, within the CORDEX domain of the Inter-tropical Americas. We forced the regional model using data from one of the CMIP5 participants (HadGEM2-ES), both for the Historical Experiment (1980-2005) and along the XXI century under RCP 8.5 (heavy-emission scenario). Regarding projections, we analyzed results for three time slices, short (2014-2035), middle (2044-2065) and long term (2078-2099), according to the following steps. First, the spatially averaged precipitation in non-overlapping pentads over 7 sub-regions over northern South America was calculated ("boxes" 1 to 7). Then, we calculated the climatological annual cycle for each one of them. Finally, dates of the onset and demise of the rainy season are found, validating the model results against GPCP observations and checking for projected changes. In general, in the Historical Experiment, the model delays the onset of the rainy season over the northern areas and anticipates it over most inland sub-regions. Over eastern Amazon, the regional model represents it properly, besides a delay in the demise of about one month. In short-term projections, there is a slight increase in precipitation and a modest anticipation of the rainy season onset in the coastal areas. Projected changes in the annual cycle of most sub-regions are relatively modest for the short-term and mid-term periods, but may become very significant by the end of the century. Over Colombia (Box 1), which has a bimodal precipitation annual cycle, the model projects a late century increase in the first precipitation peak. Little change is projected for the two boxes roughly covering Venezuela, the Guianas and the northernmost portion of northern Brazilian states (Boxes 2 and 3). The box covering northern Peru and Ecuador (Box 4) shows increased March-April precipitation, but with no significant changes in the phase of the annual cycle. The most important changes are expected over the three boxes corresponding to Brazilian Amazon. Over the westernmost box of them (Box 5), enhanced precipitation is projected towards the end of the century with a marked development of a bimodal annual distribution in the simulation, with well-defined rainfall peaks in November-January and March-May. Over Box 6 (Eastern Amazon) the most dramatic change is expected, with very large reduction of the springtime precipitation and a shift of about a 5-7 pentads in the onset of the rainy season over that area (in contrast, the later portion and the demise of the rainy season remain essentially unchanged). Finally, over Box 7, which covers the transition between the Amazon rainforest and the semiarid Northeast Brazil, the major projected features are a general increase in the wet season precipitation accompanied by a reduction of the dry season rainfall. Onset and demise dates of the rainy season are expected to remain unchanged over that area.

The Annual Glaciohydrology Cycle in the Ablation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Part 2. Observed and Modeled Ice Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed

2012-01-01

Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.

An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alemayehu, Tadesse; van Griensven, Ann; Taddesse Woldegiorgis, Befekadu; Bauwens, Willy

2017-09-01

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables - such as the leaf area index (LAI) - for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T) that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI) - a quotient of rainfall (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) - to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow) simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS) and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Budgets in the Northwestern Mediterranean Deep Convection Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessouri, Faycal; Ulses, Caroline; Estournel, Claude; Marsaleix, Patrick; Severin, Tatiana; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Caparros, Jocelyne; Raimbault, Patrick; Pasqueron de Fommervault, Orens; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Taillandier, Vincent; Testor, Pierre; Conan, Pascal

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to understand the biogeochemical cycles of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (NW Med), where a recurrent spring bloom related to dense water formation occurs. We used a coupled physical-biogeochemical model at high resolution to simulate realistic 1 year period and analyze the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. First, the model was evaluated using cruises carried out in winter, spring, and summer and a Bio-Argo float deployed in spring. Then, the annual cycle of meteorological and hydrodynamical forcing and nutrients stocks in the upper layer were analyzed. Third, the effect of biogeochemical and physical processes on N and P was quantified. Fourth, we quantified the effects of the physical and biological processes on the seasonal changes of the molar NO3:PO4 ratio, particularly high compared to the global ocean. The deep convection reduced the NO3:PO4 ratio of upper waters, but consumption by phytoplankton increased it. Finally, N and P budgets were estimated. At the annual scale, this area constituted a sink of inorganic and a source of organic N and P for the peripheral area. NO3 and PO4 were horizontally advected from the peripheral regions into the intermediate waters (130-800 m) of the deep convection area, while organic matter was exported throughout the whole water column toward the surrounding areas. The annual budget suggests that the NW Med deep convection constitutes a major source of nutrients for the photic zone of the Mediterranean Sea.

Can energy fluxes be used to interpret glacial/interglacial precipitation changes in the tropics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, W. H. G.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.

2017-06-01

Recent theoretical advances in the relationship between heat transport and the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) present an elegant framework through which to interpret past changes in tropical precipitation patterns. Using a very large ensemble of climate model simulations, we investigate whether it is possible to use this framework to interpret changes in the position of the ITCZ in response to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions. We find that the centroid of tropical precipitation, which represents the evolution of precipitation in the whole tropics, is best correlated with heat transport changes. We find that the response of the annual mean ITCZ to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions is quite different to the response of the climatological annual cycle of the ITCZ to the seasonal cycle of insolation. We show that the reason for this is that while the Hadley Circulation plays a dominant role in transporting heat over the seasonal cycle, in the annual mean response to forcing, the Hadley Circulation is not dominant. When we look regionally, rather than at the zonal mean, we find that local precipitation is poorly related either to the zonal mean ITCZ or to meridional heat transport. We demonstrate that precipitation is spatially highly variable even when the zonal mean ITCZ is in the same location. This suggests only limited use for heat transport in explaining local precipitation records; thus, there is limited scope for using heat transport changes to explain individual paleoprecipitation records.

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaherpour, Jamal; Gosling, Simon N.; Mount, Nick; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Hanasaki, Naota; Kim, Hyungjun; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Junguo; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Schewe, Jacob; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-06-01

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models’ ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.

Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Li, Yanping; Newman, Andrew; Thompson, Gregory

2016-04-01

The WRF model with a domain size of 1360x1016x51 points, using a 4 km spacing to encompass most of North America, is employed to investigate the water cycle and climate change impacts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Four suites of numerical experiments are being conducted, consisting of a 13-year retrospective simulation forced with ERA-I reanalysis, a 13-year climate sensitivity or Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation, and two 10-year CMIP5-based historical/future period simulations based on a revised bias-correction method. The major objectives are: 1) to evaluate high-resolution WRF's capability to capture orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western CONUS and convective precipitation over the eastern CONUS; 2) to assess future changes of seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated hydrological cycles along with their regional variability across the different mountain barriers and elevation dependency, in response to the CMIP5 projected 2071-2100 climate warming; 3) to examine the precipitation changes under the projected global warming, with an emphasis on precipitation extremes and the warm-season precipitation corridor in association with MCS tracks in the central US; and 4) to provide a valuable community dataset for regional climate change and impact studies. Preliminary analysis of the retrospective simulation shows both seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature are well reproduced, with precipitation bias being within 10% of the observations and temperature bias being below 1 degree C in most seasons and locations. The observed annual cycle of snow water equivalent (SWE), such as peak time and disappearance time, is also realistically replicated, even though the peak value is somewhat underestimated. The PGW simulation shows a large cold-season warming in northeast US and eastern Canada, possibly associated with snow albedo feedback, and a strong summer warming in north central US in association with precipitation reduction. There is an increase in annual rainfall/precipitation, but a sharp reduction in snowfall/snowpack in response to the global warming. A pronounced seasonal feature is the suppressed summertime precipitation in central US for the warmer climate. More detailed analysis of the modeling results is presently under way and will be presented in the meeting.

Changes in the Amplitude and Phase of the Annual Cycle: quantifying from surface wind series in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Tao

2013-04-01

Climate change is not only reflected in the changes in annual means of climate variables but also in the changes in their annual cycles (seasonality), especially in the regions outside the tropics. Changes in the timing of seasons, especially the wind season, have gained much attention worldwide in recent decade or so. We introduce long-range correlated surrogate data to Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method, which represent the statistic characteristics of data better than white noise. The new method we named Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Long-range Correlated noise (EEMD-LRC) and applied to 600 station wind speed records. This new method is applied to investigate the trend in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China's daily mean surface wind speed for the period 1971-2005. The amplitude of seasonal variation decrease significantly in the past half century over China, which can be well explained by Annual Cycle component from EEMD-LRC. Furthermore, the phase change of annual cycle lead to strongly shorten of wind season in spring, and corresponding with strong windy day frequency change over Northern China.

Is There a CME Rate Floor? CME and Magnetic Flux Values for the Last Four Solar Cycle Minima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, D. F.; Howard, R. A.; St. Cyr, O. C.; Vourlidas, A.

2017-12-01

The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a “floor” in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to ∼3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs.

Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States.

PubMed

Kautz, Markus; Anthoni, Peter; Meddens, Arjan J H; Pugh, Thomas A M; Arneth, Almut

2018-05-01

Biotic disturbances (BDs, for example, insects, pathogens, and wildlife herbivory) substantially affect boreal and temperate forest ecosystems globally. However, accurate impact assessments comprising larger spatial scales are lacking to date although these are critically needed given the expected disturbance intensification under a warming climate. Hence, our quantitative knowledge on current and future BD impacts, for example, on forest carbon (C) cycling, is strongly limited. We extended a dynamic global vegetation model to simulate ecosystem response to prescribed tree mortality and defoliation due to multiple biotic agents across United States forests during the period 1997-2015, and quantified the BD-induced vegetation C loss, that is, C fluxes from live vegetation to dead organic matter pools. Annual disturbance fractions separated by BD type (tree mortality and defoliation) and agent (bark beetles, defoliator insects, other insects, pathogens, and other biotic agents) were calculated at 0.5° resolution from aerial-surveyed data and applied within the model. Simulated BD-induced C fluxes totaled 251.6 Mt C (annual mean: 13.2 Mt C year -1 , SD ±7.3 Mt C year -1 between years) across the study domain, to which tree mortality contributed 95% and defoliation 5%. Among BD agents, bark beetles caused most C fluxes (61%), and total insect-induced C fluxes were about five times larger compared to non-insect agents, for example, pathogens and wildlife. Our findings further demonstrate that BD-induced C cycle impacts (i) displayed high spatio-temporal variability, (ii) were dominated by different agents across BD types and regions, and (iii) were comparable in magnitude to fire-induced impacts. This study provides the first ecosystem model-based assessment of BD-induced impacts on forest C cycling at the continental scale and going beyond single agent-host systems, thus allowing for comparisons across regions, BD types, and agents. Ultimately, a perspective on the potential and limitations of a more process-based incorporation of multiple BDs in ecosystem models is offered. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A 'two-tank' seasonal storage concept for solar space heating of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cha, B. K.; Connor, D. W.; Mueller, R. O.

This paper presents an analysis of a novel 'two-tank' water storage system, consisting of a large primary water tank for seasonal storage of solar energy plus a much smaller secondary water tank for storage of solar energy collected during the heating season. The system offers the advantages of high collection efficiency during the early stages of the heating season, a period when the temperature of the primary tank is generally high. By preferentially drawing energy from the small secondary tank to meet load, its temperature can be kept well below that of the larger primary tank, thereby providing a lower-temperature source for collector inlet fluid. The resulting improvement in annual system efficiency through the addition of a small secondary tank is found to be substantial - for the site considered in the paper (Madison, Wisconsin), the relative percentage gain in annual performance is in the range of 10 to 20%. A simple computer model permits accurate hour-by-hour transient simulation of thermal performance over a yearly cycle. The paper presents results of detailed simulations of collectors and storage sizing and design trade-offs for solar energy systems supplying 90% to 100% of annual heating load requirements.

Numerical simulation of the observed near-surface East India Coastal Current on the continental slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, A.; Shankar, D.; Chatterjee, Abhisek; Vinayachandran, P. N.

2018-06-01

We simulate the East India Coastal Current (EICC) using two numerical models (resolution 0.1° × 0.1°), an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) called Modular Ocean Model and a simpler, linear, continuously stratified (LCS) model, and compare the simulated current with observations from moorings equipped with acoustic Doppler current profilers deployed on the continental slope in the western Bay of Bengal (BoB). We also carry out numerical experiments to analyse the processes. Both models simulate well the annual cycle of the EICC, but the performance degrades for the intra-annual and intraseasonal components. In a model-resolution experiment, both models (run at a coarser resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°) simulate well the currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), but the performance of the high-resolution LCS model as well as the coarse-resolution OGCM, which is good in the EICC regime, degrades in the eastern and northern BoB. An experiment on forcing mechanisms shows that the annual EICC is largely forced by the local alongshore winds in the western BoB and remote forcing due to Ekman pumping over the BoB, but forcing from the EIO has a strong impact on the intra-annual EICC. At intraseasonal periods, local (equatorial) forcing dominates in the south (north) because the Kelvin wave propagates equatorward in the western BoB. A stratification experiment with the LCS model shows that changing the background stratification from EIO to BoB leads to a stronger surface EICC owing to strong coupling of higher order vertical modes with wind forcing for the BoB profiles. These high-order modes, which lead to energy propagating down into the ocean in the form of beams, are important only for the current and do not contribute significantly to the sea level.

Evolution of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the late Holocene and insolation driven change in the tropical annual SST cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loubere, Paul; Creamer, Winifred; Haas, Jonathan

2013-01-01

South American lake sediment records indicate that El Nino events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) became more frequent after 3000 calendar years BP. The reason for this evolution of ENSO behavior remains in question. An important trigger for ocean-atmosphere state switching in the tropical ocean is the annual cycle of sea surface temperature south of the equator along the margin of South America. This annual cycle can be reconstructed from the oxygen isotope records of the surf clam Mesodesma donacium. We provide evidence that these isotope records, as preserved in archeological deposits in coastal central Peru, reflect seasonal paleo-SST. We find that the annual SST cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific became larger over the 4500-2500 calendar year BP interval. This is consistent with increased ENSO variability. The magnification of the annual SST cycle can be attributed to changing insolation, indicating that ENSO is sensitive to the intensity and seasonal timing of solar heating of the southern EEP.

Different modelling approaches to evaluate nitrogen transport and turnover at the watershed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epelde, Ane Miren; Antiguedad, Iñaki; Brito, David; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Garneau, Cyril; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, José Miguel

2016-08-01

This study presents the simulation of hydrological processes and nutrient transport and turnover processes using two integrated numerical models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al., 1998), an empirical and semi-distributed numerical model; and Modelo Hidrodinâmico (MOHID) (Neves, 1985), a physics-based and fully distributed numerical model. This work shows that both models reproduce satisfactorily water and nitrate exportation at the watershed scale at annual and daily basis, MOHID providing slightly better results. At the watershed scale, both SWAT and MOHID simulated similarly and satisfactorily the denitrification amount. However, as MOHID numerical model was the only one able to reproduce adequately the spatial variation of the soil hydrological conditions and water table level fluctuation, it proved to be the only model able of reproducing the spatial variation of the nutrient cycling processes that are dependent to the soil hydrological conditions such as the denitrification process. This evidences the strength of the fully distributed and physics-based models to simulate the spatial variability of nutrient cycling processes that are dependent to the hydrological conditions of the soils.

Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

2015-05-01

A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

NASA's Robotic Mining Competition Provides Undergraduates Full Life Cycle Systems Engineering Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecklein, Jonette

2017-01-01

NASA has held an annual robotic mining competition for teams of university/college students since 2010. This competition is yearlong, suitable for a senior university engineering capstone project. It encompasses the full project life cycle from ideation of a robot design, through tele-operation of the robot collecting regolith in simulated Mars conditions, to disposal of the robot systems after the competition. A major required element for this competition is a Systems Engineering Paper in which each team describes the systems engineering approaches used on their project. The score for the Systems Engineering Paper contributes 25% towards the team’s score for the competition’s grand prize. The required use of systems engineering on the project by this competition introduces the students to an intense practical application of systems engineering throughout a full project life cycle.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the second Hadley Centre coupled model and its response to greenhouse warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, M.

This paper describes El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interannual variability simulated in the second Handley Centre coupled model under control and greenhouse warming scenarios. The model produces a very reasonable simulation of ENSO in the control experiment--reproducing the amplitude, spectral characteristics, and phase locking to the annual cycle that are observed in nature. The mechanism for the model ENSO is shown to be a mixed SST-ocean dynamics mode that can be interpreted in terms of the ocean recharge paradigm of Jin. In experiments with increased levels of greenhouse gases, no statistically significant changes in ENSO are seen until these levels approachmore » four times preindustrial values. In these experiments, the model ENSO has an approximately 20% larger amplitude, a frequency that is approximately double that of the current ENSO (implying more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas), and phase locks to the annual cycle at a different time of year. It is shown that the increase in the vertical gradient of temperature in the thermocline region, associated with the model's response to increased greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increase in the amplitude of ENSO, while the increase in meridional temperature gradients on either side of the equator, again associated with the models response to increasing greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increased frequency of ENSO events.« less

Topographically Driven Lateral Water Fluxes and Their Influence on Carbon Assimilation of a Black Spruce Ecosystem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, A.; Chen, J. M.; Margolis, H.; Bernier, P. Y.

2006-12-01

Current estimates of ecophysiological indicators overlook the effects of topographically-driven lateral flow of soil water. We hypothesize that topographically driven lateral water flows over the landscape have significant influence on the terrestrial carbon cycle. To this end, we simulated the hydrological controls on carbon cycle processes in a black spruce forest in central Quebec, Canada, using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) at a daily time step. We accounted for lateral surface and subsurface flows in BEPS by incorporating a distributed, process-oriented hydrological procedure. The results show that modeled dynamics of ecophysiological processes such as evapotranspiration (ET) and photosynthesis (GPP) are consistent with the spatial variation of land cover, topography, soil texture, and leaf area index. Simulated ET and GPP averaged within the footprint of an eddy covariance tower in the watershed agree well with flux measurements with R2=0.77 and 0.83 for ET and GPP, respectively. For ET simulation, much of the remaining discrepancies are found in the winter when the model underestimates snow sublimation. For GPP, there is an underestimation in the fall coinciding with a mid growing season drought, showing the high sensitivity of the model to the soil water status. The key processes controlling primary production were hydraulic limitations for water transfer from soil, roots, stems and leaves through stomatal conductance. Therefore, a further understanding of soil water dynamics is warranted. Comparison with the soil water content of the footprint- averaged unsaturated zone showed that the model captured the annual trend. We also simulated the variations in the water table as well as the mid growing season drought, with a reasonable accuracy(R2=0.68). The foot print average water budget reveals that the annual precipitation of 835mm is partitioned into 282mm of ET, 541 mm of subsurface runoff, and 6 mm of storage change. To test the influence of topographically driven lateral water flow on the carbon cycle, we made three hydrological modeling scenarios viz. 1) explicit hydrological simulation including lateral water routing, 2) bucket model with implicit runoff calculations and 3) a control run, where the lateral water flow was turned off in the model. Bucket model overestimated GPP as much as 25% as opposed to explicit simulations because there was no topographical constrain on runoff. Flat areas dominated with mineral soils shows the highest overestimation because of an increase in stomatal conductance. Control simulation, on the other hand, underestimated GPP as much as 15% as opposed to explicit routing because of rapid soil saturation, which decreases stomatal conductance. These results suggest that lateral water flow does play a significant role in the terrestrial carbon cycle and should be accounted for in ecological models. For details please see http://ajit.govind.googlepages.com/agu2006

CO2 Annual and Semiannual Cycles from Satellite Retrievals and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Crisp, D.; Olsen, E. T.; Kulawik, S. S.; Miller, C. E.; Pagano, T. S.; Yung, Y. L.

2014-12-01

We have compared satellite CO2 retrievals from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with in-situ measurements from the Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL) Surface CO2 and Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and utilized zonal means to characterize variability and distribution of CO2. In general, zonally averaged CO2 from the three satellite data sets are consistent with the surface and TCCON XCO2 data. Retrievals of CO2 from the three satellites show more (less) CO2 in the northern hemisphere than that in the southern hemisphere in the northern hemispheric winter (summer) season. The difference between the three satellite CO2 retrievals might be related to the different averaging kernels in the satellites CO2 retrievals. A multiple regression method was used to calculate the CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes from different satellite CO2 retrievals. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are largest at the surface, as seen in the NOAA-ESRL CO2 data sets. The CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes in the GOSAT XCO2, AIRS mid-tropospheric CO2, and TES mid-tropospheric CO2 are smaller compared with those from the surface CO2. Similar regression analysis was applied to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers-2 (MOZART-2) and CarbonTracker model CO2. The convolved model CO2 annual cycle and semiannual cycle amplitudes are similar to those from the satellite CO2 retrievals, although the model tends to under-estimate the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from the comparison with GOSAT and TES CO2 and underestimate the CO2 semi-annual cycle amplitudes in the high latitudes from the comparison with AIRS CO2. The difference between model and satellite CO2 can be used to identify possible deficiency in the model and improve the model in the future.

Survival of surf scoters and white-winged scoters during remigial molt

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uher-Koch, Brian D.; Esler, Daniel N.; Dickson, Rian D.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Evenson, Joseph R.; Anderson, Eric M.; Barrett, Jennifer; Schmutz, Joel A.

2014-01-01

Quantifying sources and timing of variation in demographic rates is necessary to determine where and when constraints may exist within the annual cycle of organisms. Surf scoters (Melanitta perspicillata) and white-winged scoters (M. fusca) undergo simultaneous remigial molt during which they are flightless for >1 month. Molt could result in reduced survival due to increased predation risk or increased energetic demands associated with regrowing flight feathers. Waterfowl survival during remigial molt varies across species, and has rarely been assessed for sea ducks. To quantify survival during remigial molt, we deployed very high frequency (VHF) transmitters on surf scoters (n = 108) and white-winged scoters (n = 57) in southeast Alaska and the Salish Sea (British Columbia and Washington) in 2008 and 2009. After censoring mortalities potentially related to capture and handling effects, we detected no mortalities during remigial molt; thus, estimates of daily and period survival for both scoter species during molt were 1.00. We performed sensitivity analyses in which mortalities were added to the dataset to simulate potential mortality rates for the population and then estimated the probability of obtaining a dataset with 0 mortalities. We found that only at high survival rates was there a high probability of observing 0 mortalities. We conclude that remigial molt is normally a period of low mortality in the annual cycle of scoters. The molt period does not appear to be a constraint on scoter populations; therefore, other annual cycle stages should be targeted by research and management efforts to change population trajectories.

Seasonality in a temperate zone bird can be entrained by near equatorial photoperiods.

PubMed

Dawson, Alistair

2007-03-07

Birds use photoperiod to control the time of breeding and moult. However, it is unclear whether responses are dependent on absolute photoperiod, the direction and rate of change in photoperiod, or if photoperiod entrains a circannual clock. If starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) are kept on a constant photoperiod of 12h light:12h darkness per day (12L:12D), then they can show repeated cycles of gonadal maturation, regression and moult, which is evidence for a circannual clock. In this study, starlings kept on constant 11.5L:12.5D for 4 years or 12.5L:11.5D for 3 years showed no circannual cycles in gonadal maturation or moult. So, if there is a circannual clock, it is overridden by a modest deviation in photoperiod from 12L:12D. The responses to 11.5L:12.5D and 12.5L:11.5D were very different, the former perceived as a short photoperiod (birds were photosensitive for most of the time) and the latter as a long photoperiod (birds remained permanently photorefractory). Starlings were then kept on a schedule which ranged from 11.5L:12.5D in mid-winter to 12.5L:11.5D in mid-summer (simulating the annual cycle at 9 degrees N) for 3 years. These birds entrained precisely to calendar time and changes in testicular size and moult were similar to those of birds under a simulated cycle at 52 degrees N. These data show that birds are very sensitive to changes in photoperiod but that they do not simply respond to absolute photoperiod nor can they rely on a circannual clock. Instead, birds appear to respond to the shape of the annual change in photoperiod. This proximate control could operate from near equatorial latitudes and would account for similar seasonal timing in individuals of a species over a wide range of latitudes.

Tidal and seasonal effects on transport of pink shrimp postlarvae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Criales, Maria M.; Wang, Jingyuan; Browder, Joan A.; Robblee, M.B.

2005-01-01

Transport simulations were conducted to investigate a large seasonal peak in postlarvae of the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus duorarum that occurs every summer on the northwestern border of Florida Bay. Daily vertical migration, a known behavior in pink shrimp postlarvae, was assumed in all scenarios investigated. A Lagrangian trajectory model was developed using a current field derived from a 3 yr ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) time series. To fit the estimated planktonic development time of pink shrimp, the model simulated larvae traveling at night over a 30 d period. We investigated 2 types of effects: (1) the effect of mismatch periodicity between tidal constituents and daily migration, and (2) the effect of seasonal changes in night length. The maximum eastward displacement with the semidiurnal lunar tidal constituent (M2) was 4 km, with periods of enhanced transport in both summer and winter. In contrast, eastward displacement with the semidiurnal solar tidal constituent (S2) and the lunisolar diurnal K1 was 65 km and the period of maximum distance occurred in summer every year. Because the periods of S2 and K1 are so close to the 24 h vertical migration period, and the eastward current (flood) of these constituents matches the diel cycle over extended intervals, they can induce strong horizontal transport during summer. Thus, diel vertical migration can interact with the S2 and the K1 tidal constituents and with the annual cycle of night length to produce a distinct annual cycle that may enhance transport of pink shrimp and other coastal species during summer in shallow areas of the Gulf of Mexico. ?? Inter-Research 2005.

Evaluation Metrics for Simulations of Tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallup, S.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, A. S.; Cheeseman, M.; Haynes, K. D.; Phillips, M.

2017-12-01

The evergreen broadleaf forest of the Amazon Basin is the largest rainforest on earth, and has teleconnections to global climate and carbon cycle characteristics. This region defies simple characterization, spanning large gradients in total rainfall and seasonal variability. Broadly, the region can be thought of as trending from light-limited in its wettest areas to water-limited near the ecotone, with individual landscapes possibly exhibiting the characteristics of either (or both) limitations during an annual cycle. A basin-scale classification of mean behavior has been elusive, and ecosystem response to seasonal cycles and anomalous drought events has resulted in some disagreement in the literature, to say the least. However, new observational platforms and instruments make characterization of the heterogeneity and variability more feasible.To evaluate simulations of ecophysiological function, we develop metrics that correlate various observational products with meteorological variables such as precipitation and radiation. Observations include eddy covariance fluxes, Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF, from GOME2 and OCO2), biomass and vegetation indices. We find that the modest correlation between SIF and precipitation decreases with increasing annual precipitation, although the relationship is not consistent between products. Biomass increases with increasing precipitation. Although vegetation indices are generally correlated with biomass and precipitation, they can saturate or experience retrieval issues during cloudy periods.Using these observational products and relationships, we develop a set of model evaluation metrics. These metrics are designed to call attention to models that get "the right answer only if it's for the right reason," and provide an opportunity for more critical evaluation of model physics. These metrics represent a testbed that can be applied to multiple models as a means to evaluate their performance in tropical South America.

Spatial variations in annual cycles of body-size spectra of planktonic ciliates and their environmental drivers in marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Xu, Henglong; Jiang, Yong; Xu, Guangjian

2016-11-15

Body-size spectra has proved to be a useful taxon-free resolution to summarize a community structure for bioassessment. The spatial variations in annual cycles of body-size spectra of planktonic ciliates and their environmental drivers were studied based on an annual dataset. Samples were biweekly collected at five stations in a bay of the Yellow Sea, northern China during a 1-year cycle. Based on a multivariate approach, the second-stage analysis, it was shown that the annual cycles of the body-size spectra were significantly different among five sampling stations. Correlation analysis demonstrated that the spatial variations in the body-size spectra were significantly related to changes of environmental conditions, especially dissolved nitrogen, alone or in combination with salinity and dissolve oxygen. Based on results, it is suggested that the nutrients may be the environmental drivers to shape the spatial variations in annual cycles of planktonic ciliates in terms of body-size spectra in marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The building loads analysis system thermodynamics (BLAST) program, Version 2. 0: input booklet. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sowell, E.

1979-06-01

The Building Loads Analysis and System Thermodynamics (BLAST) program is a comprehensive set of subprograms for predicting energy consumption in buildings. There are three major subprograms: (1) the space load predicting subprogram, which computes hourly space loads in a building or zone based on user input and hourly weather data; (2) the air distribution system simulation subprogram, which uses the computed space load and user inputs describing the building air-handling system to calculate hot water or steam, chilled water, and electric energy demands; and (3) the central plant simulation program, which simulates boilers, chillers, onsite power generating equipment and solarmore » energy systems and computes monthly and annual fuel and electrical power consumption and plant life cycle cost.« less

Annual, semi-annual and ter-annual variations of gravity wave momentum flux in 13 years of SABER data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dan; Preusse, Peter; Ern, Manfred; Strube, Cornelia

2017-04-01

In this study, the variations at different time scales such as the annual cycle, the semiannual oscillation (SAO), the ter-annual cycle (about four monthly) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal mean GW amplitudes and GW momentum flux (GWMF) have been investigated using satellite observations from 2002-2014 and combining ECMWF high resolution data with the GORGRAT model. The global distribution (patterns) of spectral amplitudes of GW momentum flux in stratosphere and mesosphere (from 30 km to 90 km) show that the annual cycle is the most predominant variation, and then are SAO, ter-annual cycle and QBO. For annual components, two relatively isolated amplitude maxima appear in each hemisphere: a subtropical maximum is associated with convective sources in summer, a mid and high latitude maximum is associated with the polar vortex in winter. In the subtropics, GWs propagate upward obliquely to the higher latitudes. The winter maximum in the southern hemisphere has larger momentum flux than that one in the northern hemisphere. While on the SH the phase (i.e. time corresponding to the maximum GWMF) continuously descends with the maximum in July in the upper mesosphere and in September in the lower stratosphere, on the northern hemisphere, the phase has no visible altitude dependence with a maximum in December. For semiannual variations, in the MLT (70-80 km) region, there is an obvious enhancement of spectral amplitude at equatorial latitudes which relate to the dissipation of convectively forced GWs. The SAO in absolute momentum flux and the annual cycle in zonal momentum flux indicated that the variations at mid-latitudes (about from 30°-40°) are not a SAO signals but rather an annual cycle when the direction of GWMF is considered. The ter-annual cycle may be related to the duration of active convection in subtropical latitudes (from June to Sep. in north hemisphere) Indications for QBO are found latitude extension to mid-latitudes in stratosphere of both hemispheres and equatorial mesopause. Using these four dominant components of time scales and performing sinusoidal fits of GWMF we find that the patterns also at high latitudes are consistent with the range of 50°S to 50°N continuously covered by SABER.

The modeled latitudinal distribution of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation using observed equatorial winds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, L.J.; Ruth, S.

1993-04-15

A simulation of precise years of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is achieved in a two-dimensional model by relaxing the modeled equatorial winds in the lower stratosphere toward radiosonde observations. The model has been run for the period 1971-90. A QBO signal in column ozone is produced in the model that agrees reasonably well with observational data from the BUV, TOMS, and SAGE II satellite datasets. The model results confirm previous indications of the importance of the interaction of the QBO with the annual cycle in the determination of the subtropical ozone anomaly. The low-frequency modulation of the subtropical ozone anomalymore » is now particularly clear. The low-frequency modulation of the subtropical ozone anomaly in the model arises as a result of the interaction of the QBO with the annual cycle in the vertical advection by the Hadley circulation. The possibility of a further, similar modulation arising from the interaction of the equatorial wind QBO and the annual cycle in midlatitude eddy activity is discussed, with particular emphasis on the implications for the eddy transfer of ozone to high latitudes and on the ability to predict the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole. A link is proposed between the QBO signal in the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole and the amount of ozone observed in the subtropical/midlatitude springtime maximum in the Southern Hemisphere. On the basis of this relationship, the reliability of the model as a predictor of the severity of the ozone hole is explored. A conclusion of the study is that a reliable predictor of the severity of the ozone hole must take into account the timing of the descent of the equatorial wind QBO at the equator with respect to the annual cycle and that the use, as in previous studies, of a single parameter, such as the sign of the 50-mb equatorial wind, will not be entirely reliable because it cannot do this. 31 refs., 11 figs.« less

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

2015-12-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States.

PubMed

Monaghan, Andrew J; Moore, Sean M; Sampson, Kevin M; Beard, Charles B; Eisen, Rebecca J

2015-07-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

45 years of non-stationary hydrology over a forest plantation growth cycle, Coalburn catchment, Northern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkinshaw, Stephen J.; Bathurst, James C.; Robinson, Mark

2014-11-01

The Coalburn research catchment (1.5 km2) in Kielder Forest, Northern England, is a long-term project to study the effect of upland afforestation on hydrology. There is now a unique 45-year record; making it Britain's longest running forest hydrology research catchment. The site was instrumented in 1967, ploughed and planted in 1972/73 and the trees have now reached maturity. Hourly meteorological data have been measured since 1993 and these have enabled hydrological simulations to be carried out using the Shetran model for the period 1993-2011. The results from this work show that after ploughing there was an increase of around 50-100 mm in annual streamflow compared with the original upland grassland vegetation. However, the mature trees now show a decrease of around 250-300 mm in the annual streamflow compared with the original vegetation and a decrease of around 350 mm in the annual streamflow compared with when the site was ploughed. The simulation results show very clearly the non-stationary nature of the catchment during 1993-2011 with an annual increase in intercepted evaporation and a decrease in discharge as the trees grow. Simulation results also show that peak discharges are higher for a cover of smaller trees compared with taller trees. However, the results suggest that the bigger the event the smaller is the difference, i.e. there is absolute convergence for the two different tree scenarios at higher discharges. The study shows how modelling can compensate for data deficiencies, to maximise outcomes. As a rare example of long-term analysis of non-stationary catchment behaviour it also provides real evidence of change that would otherwise have had to be inferred theoretically.

Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-12-01

Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C.D.

2014-01-01

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1, 2, 3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1, 4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

2017-01-01

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Evaluation of the accuracy of an offline seasonally-varying matrix transport model for simulating ideal age

DOE PAGES

Bardin, Ann; Primeau, Francois; Lindsay, Keith; ...

2016-07-21

Newton-Krylov solvers for ocean tracers have the potential to greatly decrease the computational costs of spinning up deep-ocean tracers, which can take several thousand model years to reach equilibrium with surface processes. One version of the algorithm uses offline tracer transport matrices to simulate an annual cycle of tracer concentrations and applies Newton’s method to find concentrations that are periodic in time. Here we present the impact of time-averaging the transport matrices on the equilibrium values of an ideal-age tracer. We compared annually-averaged, monthly-averaged, and 5-day-averaged transport matrices to an online simulation using the ocean component of the Community Earthmore » System Model (CESM) with a nominal horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° and 60 vertical levels. We found that increasing the time resolution of the offline transport model reduced a low age bias from 12% for the annually-averaged transport matrices, to 4% for the monthly-averaged transport matrices, and to less than 2% for the transport matrices constructed from 5-day averages. The largest differences were in areas with strong seasonal changes in the circulation, such as the Northern Indian Ocean. As a result, for many applications the relatively small bias obtained using the offline model makes the offline approach attractive because it uses significantly less computer resources and is simpler to set up and run.« less

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

PubMed

Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

2018-01-01

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960–2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006–2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960–2000), the present period (2006–2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050). PMID:28486483

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future.

PubMed

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960-2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006-2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960-2000), the present period (2006-2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in the future (2050).

The application of simulation modeling to the cost and performance ranking of solar thermal power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, L. S.; Revere, W. R.; Selcuk, M. K.

1981-01-01

A computer simulation code was employed to evaluate several generic types of solar power systems (up to 10 MWe). Details of the simulation methodology, and the solar plant concepts are given along with cost and performance results. The Solar Energy Simulation computer code (SESII) was used, which optimizes the size of the collector field and energy storage subsystem for given engine-generator and energy-transport characteristics. Nine plant types were examined which employed combinations of different technology options, such as: distributed or central receivers with one- or two-axis tracking or no tracking; point- or line-focusing concentrator; central or distributed power conversion; Rankin, Brayton, or Stirling thermodynamic cycles; and thermal or electrical storage. Optimal cost curves were plotted as a function of levelized busbar energy cost and annualized plant capacity. Point-focusing distributed receiver systems were found to be most efficient (17-26 percent).

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

General Circulation Model Simulations of the Annual Cycle of Martian Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R.; Richardson, M.; Rodin, A.

Observations of the martian atmosphere have revealed a strong annual modulation of global mean atmospheric temperature that has been attributed to the pronounced seasonal asymmetry in solar radiation and the highly variable distribution of aerosol. These observations indicate little interannual variability during the relatively cool aphelion season and considerable variability in the perihelion season that is associated with the episodic occurrence of regional and major dust storms. The atmospheric circulation responds to the evolving spatial distribution of aerosol-induced heating and, in turn, plays a major role in determining the sources, sinks, and transport of radiatively active aerosol. We will present simulations employing the GFDL Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) that show that aspects of the seasonally evolving climate may be simulated in a self-consistent manner using simple dust source parameterizations that represent the effects of lifting associated with local dust storms, dust devil activity, and other processes. Aerosol transport is accomplished, in large part, by elements of the large-scale circulation such as the Hadley circulation, baroclinic storms, tides, etc. A seasonal cycle of atmospheric opacity and temperature results from the variation in the strength and distribution of dust sources as well as from seasonal variations in the efficiency of atmospheric transport associated with changes in the circulation between solstice and equinox, and between perihelion and aphelion. We examine the efficiency of atmospheric transport of dust lifted along the perimeter of the polar caps to gauge the influence of these storms on the global circulation. We also consider the influence of water, as the formation of water ice clouds on dust nuclei may also affect the vertical distribution of dust and strongly influence the aerosol radiative properties.

Thermal structure of the TTL and its relation to stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of water.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre Juárez, M.; Ao, C. O.; Schr\\O der, T. M.; Hermann, R.

2004-12-01

The annual cycle of the TTL fine scale thermal structure is described as captured by GPS radio occultation and the pressure levels of the ECMWF weather analysis. This annual cycle is compared to the annual cycle in water concentrations at the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere measured by HALOE. It is found that the saturation mixing ratios at the Cold Point Tropopause temperatures are consistent and sligthly below HALOE values with some temporal lag. This suggests that if dehydration mechanisms other than those associated with slow vertical asscent are working effectively, they must be counterbalanced by other hydration mechanisms. A comparison between saturation mixing ratios at the temperatures captured by GPS radio occultation and HALOE concentrations of water vapor show an annual cycle dominated by supersaturation in the boreal winter months, when the upward mass fluxes are larger, and subsaturation in the summer. The longitudinal dependence of these cycles is discussed and so is its possible implication for the seasonality of statospheric-tropospheric exchange of water.

Estimation of optimal biomass fraction measuring cycle formunicipal solid waste incineration facilities in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Seongmin; Cha, Jae Hyung; Hong, Yoon-Jung; Lee, Daekyeom; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2018-01-01

This study estimates the optimum sampling cycle using a statistical method for biomass fraction. More than ten samples were collected from each of the three municipal solid waste (MSW) facilities between June 2013 and March 2015 and the biomass fraction was analyzed. The analysis data were grouped into monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual intervals and the optimum sampling cycle for the detection of the biomass fraction was estimated. Biomass fraction data did not show a normal distribution. Therefore, the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to compare the average values for each sample group. The Kruskal-Wallis test results showed that the average monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and annual values for all three MSW incineration facilities were equal. Therefore, the biomass fraction at the MSW incineration facilities should be calculated on a yearly cycle which is the longest period of the temporal cycles tested. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge and Streamflow In A Central European Low Mountain Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckhardt, K.; Ulbrich, U.

General Circulation Model simulations indicate a significant rise of temperature and changes in precipitation over Europe as part of the anthropogenic climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range catchment are investigated using a concep- tual ecohydrologic model. Two climate change scenarios are considered, one with low and one with high climate sensitivity. The changes in temperature and precipitation associated with these projections are taken from multi-model estimates and enter the hydrologic model assuming a sinusodial annual cycle of temperature and precipitation changes. The resulting changes in annual mean groundwater recharge and streamflow are rather small, as increased atmospheric CO2 levels reduce stomatal conductance thus counteracting the increase of potential evapotranspiration induced by rising tem- peratures. There are, however, more pronounced changes associated with the mean annual cycle of groundwater recharge and streamflow. Snowmelt at the beginning of spring is reduced. Instead, runoff and hence flood risk in winter increase. In summer, groundwater recharge and streamflow are reduced by up to 50%. This could have neg- ative consequences for water quality, groundwater withdrawals and energy production by water power. Plant growth will be stimulated by the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Due to the temperature rise, the growing season will begin earlier in the year. However, the risk of desiccation injuries increases as well.

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC.

PubMed

Keane, R E; Ryan, K C; Running, S W

1996-03-01

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.

Recent trends in vegetation greenness in China significantly altered annual evapotranspiration and water yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Xiao, J.

2017-12-01

There has been growing evidence that vegetation greenness has been increasing in many parts of the northern middle and high latitudes including China during the last three to four decades. However, the effects of vegetation greening particularly afforestation on the hydrologic cycle have been controversial. We used a process-based ecosystem model and a satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) dataset to examine how the changes in vegetation greenness affected annual evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield for China over the period from 2000 to 2014. Significant trends in vegetation greenness were observed in 26.1% of China's land area. We used two model simulations driven with original and detrended LAI, respectively, to assess the effects of vegetation greening and browning on terrestrial ET and water yield. On a per-pixel basis, vegetation greening increased annual ET and decreased water yield or weakened the increase in water yield; vegetation browning reduced ET and increased water yield or weakened the decrease in water yield. At the large river basin and national scales, the greening trends had positive effects on annual ET and had negative effects on water yield. Our results showed that the effects of the greenness changes on ET and water yield varied with spatial scale. Afforestation efforts perhaps should focus on southern China with larger water supply given the water crisis in northern China and the negative effects of vegetation greening on water yield. Future studies on the effects of the greenness changes on the hydrologic cycle are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Seasonal dynamics in community structure, abundance, body size and sex ratio in two species of Neotropical annual fishes.

PubMed

Lanés, L E K; Godoy, R S; Maltchik, L; Polačik, M; Blažek, R; Vrtílek, M; Reichard, M

2016-11-01

Seven ephemeral pools on the coastal plain of southern Brazil were found to be inhabited by three annual and 22 non-annual fish species. Two common annual species (Austrolebias minuano and Cynopoecilus fulgens) exhibited clear seasonal dynamics, with the appearance of young fishes in the austral autumn (May to June) and a decline in abundance over the seasonal cycle. The third annual species, Austrolebias wolterstorffii, was rare. No seasonal dynamics were observed in non-annual fishes. The relative abundance of non-annual fishes compared with annual fishes increased over the seasonal cycle, but they coexisted widely. The size structure of annual fishes suggested the presence of a single age cohort in most pools though a second age cohort was registered in one pool in August, coinciding with a large flooding. Strong sexual dimorphism in body size was found in C. fulgens throughout the seasonal cycle, while no sexual dimorphism in body size was found in A. minuano. Female-biased sex ratios were recorded in both common annual fish species in the last three sampling dates (in spring), but not during the first two sampling dates (in winter). The natural lifespan of annual fishes was <8 months. Annual fishes disappeared before habitat desiccation in half of the pools, while non-annual fishes were still present. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Variability in Global Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave Radiation Between 2000 and 2005

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loebe, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Rose, Fred G.; Doelling, David R.

2007-01-01

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux.

Variability in global top-of-atmosphere shortwave radiation between 2000 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Rose, Fred G.; Doelling, David R.

2007-02-01

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux.

Modeling riverine nitrate export from an East-Central Illinois watershed using SWAT.

PubMed

Hu, X; McIsaac, G F; David, M B; Louwers, C A L

2007-01-01

Reliable water quality models are needed to forecast the water quality consequences of different agricultural nutrient management scenarios. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), version 2000, was applied to simulate streamflow, riverine nitrate (NO(3)) export, crop yield, and watershed nitrogen (N) budgets in the upper Embarras River (UER) watershed in east-central Illinois, which has extensive maize-soybean cultivation, large N fertilizer input, and extensive tile drainage. During the calibration (1994-2002) and validation (1985-1993) periods, SWAT simulated monthly and annual stream flows with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (E) ranging from 0.67 to 0.94 and R(2) from 0.75 to 0.95. For monthly and annual NO(3) loads, E ranged from -0.16 to 0.45 and R(2) from 0.36 to 0.74. Annual maize and soybean yields were simulated with relative errors ranging from -10 to 6%. The model was then used to predict the changes in NO(3) output with N fertilizer application rates 10 to 50% lower than original application rates in UER. The calibrated SWAT predicted a 10 to 43% decrease in NO(3) export from UER and a 6 to 38% reduction in maize yield in response to the reduction in N fertilizer. The SWAT model markedly overestimated NO(3) export during major wet periods. Moreover, SWAT estimated soybean N fixation rates considerably greater than literature values, and some simulated changes in the N cycle in response to fertilizer reduction seemed to be unrealistic. Improving these aspects of SWAT could lead to more reliable predictions in the water quality outcomes of nutrient management practices in tile-drained watersheds.

Changes of evapotranspiration and water yield in China's terrestrial ecosystems during the period from 2000 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, Y.; Ju, W.; Chen, J.; Wang, S.; He, H.; Wang, H.; Guan, D.; Zhao, F.; Li, Y.; Hao, Y.

2013-04-01

Terrestrial carbon and water cycles are interactively linked at various spatial and temporal scales. Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a key role in the terrestrial water cycle and altering carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems. The study of ET and its response to climate and vegetation changes is critical in China since water availability is a limiting factor for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems in vast arid and semiarid regions. In this study, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model was employed in conjunction with a newly developed leaf area index (LAI) dataset and other spatial data to simulate daily ET and water yield at a spatial resolution of 500 m over China for the period from 2000 to 2010. The spatial and temporal variations of ET and water yield and influences of temperature, precipitation, land cover types, and LAI on ET were analyzed. The validations with ET measured at 5 typical ChinaFLUX sites and inferred using statistical hydrological data in 10 basins showed that the BEPS model was able to simulate daily and annual ET well at site and basin scales. Simulated annual ET exhibited a distinguishable southeast to northwest decreasing gradient, corresponding to climate conditions and vegetation types. It increased with the increase of LAI in 74% of China's landmass and was positively correlated with temperature in most areas of southwest, south, east, and central China and with precipitation in the arid and semiarid areas of northwest and north China. In the Tibet Plateau and humid southeast China, the increase in precipitation might cause ET to decrease. The national mean annual ET varied from 345.5 mm yr-1 in 2001 to 387.8 mm yr-1 in 2005, with an average of 369.8 mm yr-1 during the study period. The overall increase rate of 1.7 mm yr-2 (r = 0.43 p = 0.19) was mainly driven by the increase of total ET in forests. During the period from 2006 to 2009, precipitation and LAI decreased widely and consequently caused a detectable decrease of national total ET. The temporal patterns of ET varied spatially during the 11 yr study period, increasing in 62.2% of China's landmass, especially in the cropland areas of southern Haihe river basin, most of the Huaihe river basin, and southeastern Yangtze river basin. Decreases of annual ET mainly occurred in parts of northeast, north, northwest, south China, especially in eastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau, the south part of Yunnan province, and Hainan province. Vast regions in China, especially the regions south of Yangtze river, experienced significant decreases in water yield caused by the reduction of precipitation and increase of ET while some areas sporadically distributed in northeast, east, northwest, central, and south China experienced increases in water yield. This study shows that recent climatic variability and human activity induced vegetations changes have intensified the terrestrial water cycles in China's terrestrial ecosystems, which is worthy of further thorough investigation.

Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: part I a linear coupled framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

2018-03-01

The eastern equatorial Pacific has a pronounced westward propagating SST annual cycle resulting from ocean-atmosphere interactions with equatorial semiannual solar forcing and off-equatorial annual solar forcing conveyed to the equator. In this two-part paper, a simple linear coupled framework is proposed to quantify the internal dynamics and external forcing for a better understanding of the linear part of the dynamics annual cycle. It is shown that an essential internal dynamical factor is the SST damping rate which measures the coupled stability in a similar way as the Bjerknes instability index for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It comprises three major negative terms (dynamic damping due to the Ekman pumping feedback, mean circulation advection, and thermodynamic feedback) and two positive terms (thermocline feedback and zonal advection). Another dynamical factor is the westward-propagation speed that is mainly determined by the thermodynamic feedback, the Ekman pumping feedback, and the mean circulation. The external forcing is measured by the annual and semiannual forcing factors. These linear internal and external factors, which can be estimated from data, determine the amplitude of the annual cycle.

Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Year Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Well-established satellite-derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents are combined to create the global picture of sea ice extents and their changes over the 35-yr period 1979-2013. Results yield a global annual sea ice cycle more in line with the high-amplitude Antarctic annual cycle than the lower-amplitude Arctic annual cycle but trends more in line with the high-magnitude negative Arctic trends than the lower-magnitude positive Antarctic trends. Globally, monthly sea ice extent reaches a minimum in February and a maximum generally in October or November. All 12 months show negative trends over the 35-yr period, with the largest magnitude monthly trend being the September trend, at -68,200 +/- 10,500 sq km/yr (-2.62% 6 +/- 0.40%/decade), and the yearly average trend being -35,000 +/- 5900 sq km/yr (-1.47% +/- 0.25%/decade).

Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Yr Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Well-established satellite-derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents are combined to create the global picture of sea ice extents and their changes over the 35-yr period 1979-2013. Results yield a global annual sea ice cycle more in line with the high-amplitude Antarctic annual cycle than the lower-amplitude Arctic annual cycle but trends more in line with the high-magnitude negative Arctic trends than the lower-magnitude positive Antarctic trends. Globally, monthly sea ice extent reaches a minimum in February and a maximum generally in October or November. All 12 months show negative trends over the 35-yr period, with the largest magnitude monthly trend being the September trend, at -68200 +/- 10500 km sq yr(exp -1) (-2.62% +/- 0.40%decade(exp -1)), and the yearly average trend being -35000 +/-5900 km sq yr(exp -1) (-1.47% +/- 0.25%decade(exp -1)).

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Production and export in a global ocean ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, J. R.; Totterdell, I. J.

2001-05-01

The Hadley Centre Ocean Carbon Cycle (HadOCC) model is a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the ocean carbon cycle. It features an explicit representation of the marine ecosystem, which is assumed to be limited by nitrogen availability. The biogeochemical compartments are dissolved nutrient, total CO 2, total alkalinity, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus. The results of the standard simulation are presented. The annual primary production predicted by the model ( 47.7 Gt C yr -1) compares well to the estimates made by Longhurst et al. (1995, J. Plankton Res., 17, 1245) and Antoine et al. (1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10, 57). The HadOCC model finds high production in the sub-polar North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, and around the Antarctic convergence, and low production in the sub-tropical gyres. However in disagreement with the observations of Longhurst et al. and Antoine et al., the model predicts very high production in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The export flux of carbon in the model agrees well with data from deep-water sediment traps. In order to examine the factors controlling production in the ocean, additional simulations have been run. A nutrient-restoring simulation confirms that the areas with the highest primary production are those with the greatest nutrient supply. A reduced wind-stress experiment demonstrates that the high production found in the equatorial Pacific is driven by excessive upwelling of nutrient-rich water. Three further simulations show that nutrient supply at high latitudes, and hence production there, is sensitive to the parameters and climatological forcings of the mixed layer sub-model.

Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

2011-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

Disparate effects of constant and annually-cycling daylength and water temperature on reproductive maturation of striped bass (Morone saxatilis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, R.W.; Henderson-Arzapalo, A.; Sullivan, C.V.

2005-01-01

Adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) were exposed to various combinations of constant or anually-cycling daylength and water temperature. Constant conditions (15 h days, 18??C) were those normally experienced at spawning and cycling conditions simulated natural changes at Chesapeake Bay latitude. Females exposed to constant long (15 h) days and cycling water temperature (TEMPERATURE group) had blood plasma levels of sex steroids (testosterone [T] and estradiol-17?? [E2]) and vitellogenin (Vg), and profiles of oocyte growth, that were nearly identical to those of females held under a natural photothermal cycle (CONTROL group). Several fish from these two groups were induced to spawn fertile eggs. Females constantly exposed to warm water (18??C), with or without a natural photoperiod cycle (PHOTOPERIOD and STATIC groups, respectively), had diminished circulating levels of gonadal steroid hormones and Vg, impaired deposition of yolk granules in their ooplasm, and decreased oocyte growth, and they underwent premature ovarian atresia. Males exposed to cycling water temperature (CONTROL and TEMPERATURE groups) spermiated synchronously during the natural breeding season, at which time they also had had high plasma androgen (T and 11-ketotestosterone [11-KT]) levels. The timing of spermiation was highly asynchronous among males in groups of fish held constantly at 18??C (STATIC and PHOTOPERIOD groups) and this asynchrony was associated with diminished plasma androgen levels. Termination of spermiation by males exposed to cycling water temperature coincided with a sharp decline in levels of plasma androgens about a month after water temperature rose above 18??C. In contrast, most males held constantly at 18??C sustained intermediate levels of plasma androgens and spermiated until the end of the study in late July. The annual cycle of water temperature clearly plays a prominent role in the initiation, maintenance, and termination of the striped bass reproductive cycle. In females, a decrease in water temperature below values experienced at spawning appears to be required for vitellogenesis and oocyte growth to proceed normally. Constant exposure of males to spawning temperature disrupts synchronous spermiation but also delays testicular regression, which may be useful for spawning fish after the natural reproductive season.

Assessment of phytoplankton resources suitable for bigheaded carps in Lake Michigan derived from remote sensing and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Karl R.; Chapman, Duane C.; Wynne, Tim T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

We used bioenergetic simulations combined with satellite-measured water temperature and estimates of algal food availability to predict the habitat suitability of Lake Michigan for adult silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis). Depending on water temperature, we found that bigheaded carp require ambient algal concentrations between 1 and 7 μg chlorophyll/L or between 0.25 × 105 and 1.20 × 105 cells/mL Microcystis to maintain body weight. When the bioenergetics model is forced with the observed average annual temperature cycle, our simulations predicted silver carp bioenergetics predicted annual weight change ranging from 9% weight loss to 23% gain; bighead carp ranged from 68 to 177% weight gain. Algal concentrations b4 μg chlorophyll/L and b200,000 cells/mL were below the detection limits of the remote sensing method. However, all areas with detectable algae have sufficient concentrations of algal foods for bigheaded carp weight-maintenance and growth. Those areas are predominately along the nearshore areas.

How tropical cyclone inter-annual timing and trajectory control gross primary productivity in the SE US at seasonal and annual timescales and impacts on mountain forest eco-hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important source of freshwater input to the SE US eco-hydrologic function. Soil moisture, a temporal integral of precipitation, is critical to plant photosynthesis and carbon assimilation. In this study, we investigate the impact TCs have on gross primary productivity (GPP) in the SE US using the physically-based Duke Coupled Hydrology Model with Vegetation (DCHM-V) which includes coupled water and energy cycles and a biochemical representation of photosynthesis. A parsimonious evaluation of model-estimated GPP against all available AmeriFlux data in the SE US is presented. We characterize the seasonality of vegetation activity in the SE US by simulating water, energy, and carbon fluxes using the DCHM-V at high spatial (4 km) and temporal (30-min) resolution over the period 2002 - 2012. The model is run offline using atmospheric forcing data from NLDAS-2, precipitation from StageIV, and phenology indices from MODIS FPAR/LAI. Analysis of model results show the tendency for low GPP to occur in the Appalachian Mountains during peak summer months when water stress limits stomatal function. We contrast these simulations with model runs where periods of TC activity are replaced with the monthly climatological diurnal cycle from NARR. Results show that the timing and trajectory of TCs are key to understanding their impact on GPP across the SE US. Specifically: 1) Timing of moisture input from TCs greatly influences the vegetation response. TCs during peak summer months increase GPP and years with TCs falling in peak summer months see much higher annual GPP averages; 2) Years of drought and low plant productivity (2006-2007, 2011-2012) in the SE US tend to have TCs that fall later in the year when the additional moisture input does not have a significant impact on vegetation activity; and 3) TC path impacts regional GPP averages. The mountain region shows large inter- and intra-annual variability in plant productivity and high sensitivity to water stress. The Appalachian mountain region tends to have higher GPP when TC trajectories are closer in proximity.

Representation of Precipitation in a Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Ban, N.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Schar, C.

2017-12-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Regional climate simulations using horizontal resolutions of O(1km) allow to explicitly resolve deep convection leading to an improved representation of the water cycle. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. A new version of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model (COSMO) is capable of exploiting new supercomputer architectures employing GPU accelerators, and allows convection-resolving climate simulations on computational domains spanning continents and time periods up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation on a European-scale computational domain. The simulation has a grid spacing of 2.2 km, 1536x1536x60 grid points, covers the period 1999-2008, and is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Specifically we present an evaluation of hourly rainfall using a wide range of data sets, including several rain-gauge networks and a remotely-sensed lightning data set. Substantial improvements are found in terms of the diurnal cycles of precipitation amount, wet-hour frequency and all-hour 99th percentile. However the results also reveal substantial differences between regions with and without strong orographic forcing. Furthermore we present an index for deep-convective activity based on the statistics of vertical motion. Comparison of the index with lightning data shows that the convection-resolving climate simulations are able to reproduce important features of the annual cycle of deep convection in Europe. Leutwyler D., D. Lüthi, N. Ban, O. Fuhrer, and C. Schär (2017): Evaluation of the Convection-Resolving Climate Modeling Approach on Continental Scales , J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JD026013.

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

PubMed Central

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

2016-01-01

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO 2 flux in Alaska

DOE PAGES

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; ...

2016-06-27

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO 2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO 2 with climatically forced CO 2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage andmore » near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO 2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO 2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. In conclusion, although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.« less

Hydrological and water quality processes simulation by the integrated MOHID model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epelde, Ane; Antiguedad, Iñaki; Brito, David; Eduardo, Jauch; Neves, Ramiro; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, José Miguel

2016-04-01

Different modelling approaches have been used in recent decades to study the water quality degradation caused by non-point source pollution. In this study, the MOHID fully distributed and physics-based model has been employed to simulate hydrological processes and nitrogen dynamics in a nitrate vulnerable zone: the Alegria River watershed (Basque Country, Northern Spain). The results of this study indicate that the MOHID code is suitable for hydrological processes simulation at the watershed scale, as the model shows satisfactory performance at simulating the discharge (with NSE: 0.74 and 0.76 during calibration and validation periods, respectively). The agronomical component of the code, allowed the simulation of agricultural practices, which lead to adequate crop yield simulation in the model. Furthermore, the nitrogen exportation also shows satisfactory performance (with NSE: 0.64 and 0.69 during calibration and validation periods, respectively). While the lack of field measurements do not allow to evaluate the nutrient cycling processes in depth, it has been observed that the MOHID model simulates the annual denitrification according to general ranges established for agricultural watersheds (in this study, 9 kg N ha-1 year-1). In addition, the model has simulated coherently the spatial distribution of the denitrification process, which is directly linked to the simulated hydrological conditions. Thus, the model has localized the highest rates nearby the discharge zone of the aquifer and also where the aquifer thickness is low. These results evidence the strength of this model to simulate watershed scale hydrological processes as well as the crop production and the agricultural activity derived water quality degradation (considering both nutrient exportation and nutrient cycling processes).

Using Screening Level Environmental Life Cycle Assessment to Aid Decision Making: A Case Study of a College Annual Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ingwersen, Wesley W.; Curran, Mary Ann; Gonzalez, Michael A.; Hawkins, Troy R.

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare the life cycle environmental impacts of the University of Cincinnati College of Engineering and Applied Sciences' current printed annual report to a version distributed via the internet. Design/methodology/approach: Life cycle environmental impacts of both versions of the report are modeled using…

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemblemore » during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.« less

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble duringmore » the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.« less

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2018-06-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2017-09-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Impact of groundwater capillary rises as lower boundary conditions for soil moisture in a land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Decharme, Bertrand; Habets, Florence

2014-05-01

Groundwater is a key component of the global hydrological cycle. It sustains base flow in humid climate while it receives seepage in arid region. Moreover, groundwater influences soil moisture through water capillary rise into the soil and potentially affects the energy and water budget between the land surface and the atmosphere. Despite its importance, most global climate models do not account for groundwater and their possible interaction with both the surface hydrology and the overlying atmosphere. This study assesses the impact of capillary rise from shallow groundwater on the simulated water budget over France. The groundwater scheme implemented in the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways (TRIP) river routing model in a previous study is coupled with the Interaction between Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model. In this coupling, the simulated water table depth acts as the lower boundary condition for the soil moisture diffusivity equation. An original parameterization accounting for the subgrid elevation inside each grid cell is proposed in order to compute this fully-coupled soil lower boundary condition. Simulations are performed at high (1/12°) and low (0.5°) resolutions and evaluated over the 1989-2009 period. Compared to a free-drain experiment, upward capillary fluxes at the bottom of soil increase the mean annual evapotranspiration simulated over the aquifer domain by 3.12 % and 1.54 % at fine and low resolutions respectively. This process logically induces a decrease of the simulated recharge from ISBA to the aquifers and contributes to enhance the soil moisture memory. The simulated water table depths are then lowered, which induces a slight decrease of the simulated mean annual river discharges. However, the fully-coupled simulations compare well with river discharge and water table depth observations which confirms the relevance of the coupling formalism.

Ecological life cycle of Chaerophyllum procumbens variety shortii (Apiacheae), a winter annual of the North American dedicuous forest

Treesearch

Carol C. Baskin; Tracy S. Hawkins; Jerry M. Baskin

2004-01-01

Numerous winter annuals occur in temperate eastern North America. Based on life cycle information and flowering period, the flora of northeastern USA and adjacent Canada described in Gray's Manual of Botany (Fernald 1950) contains 96 winter annuals (C. Baskin unpublished). This list includes native and introduced species in 57 genera and 23 families. The majority...

Evaluating climate controls on isotopic shifts in high-altitude forests during the Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Insel, N.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Sturm, C.; Karimova, G.

2016-12-01

Forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle, and influence climate through their effect on albedo and latent heat flux. Predicting the response of these ecosystems to climate change is complicated by competing influences between rising CO2, warming, and shifts in hydrology such as timing, rate, and type of precipitation. A key to detection and prediction of future regional and global changes of modern ecosystems lies in understanding the causes and characteristics of historical variations at the ecosystem level. The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130 to 116 ka) is the most recent period in Earth's history when growing season temperature exceeded those of today. In this study, we are using isotope-enabled regional climate model (REMOiso) simulations under LIG (115ka, 125 ka and 135 ka) and modern forcings to evaluate climate controls on boreal forest in the western US. In particular, we investigate (1) changes in moisture sources and moisture transport, (2) changes in the annual and seasonal extent and duration of precipitation, and (3) temperature variations to explore how ecosystem carbon and water fluxes change under coupled temperature and precipitation variability. Eemian wood samples from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado show a progressive increase in the 18O seasonal cycle that may be related to trees utilizing isotopically enriched monsoonal moisture. However, Eemian climate simulations (125ka) incorporate orbital forcings that result in stronger seasonal changes in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover in comparison to today, while annual anomalies are small. The seasonal shift in climate affects the water availability and the length of growing season for Eemian plants. Model results indicate only a very slight increase in monsoonal moisture transport from the south, resulting in slightly wetter conditions in western Colorado, but slightly drier conditions in the eastern part. Preliminary results suggest that changes in the North American monsoon system were not sufficient to explain the observed isotopic enrichment in Eemian wood samples. Current isotope simulations address changes in the seasonal isotopic cycle in the precipitation during the Eemian and will allow us to distinguish tree's reliance on summer or winter moisture sources more clearly.

Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle

DOE PAGES

Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...

2017-06-08

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT AND DRIFT, MODELED AS A VISCOUS FLUID.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ling, Chi-Hai; Parkinson, Claire L.

1986-01-01

A dynamic/thermodynamic numerical model of sea ice has been used to calculate the yearly cycle of sea ice thicknesses, concentrations, and velocities in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The model combines the formulations of two previous models, taking the thermodynamics and momentum equations from the model of Parkinson and Washington and adding the constitutive equation and equation of state from the model of Ling, Rasmussen, and Campbell. Simulated annually averaged ice drift vectors compare well with observed ice drift from the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program.

Optimization of a middle atmosphere diagnostic scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akmaev, Rashid A.

1997-06-01

A new assimilative diagnostic scheme based on the use of a spectral model was recently tested on the CIRA-86 empirical model. It reproduced the observed climatology with an annual global rms temperature deviation of 3.2 K in the 15-110 km layer. The most important new component of the scheme is that the zonal forcing necessary to maintain the observed climatology is diagnosed from empirical data and subsequently substituted into the simulation model at the prognostic stage of the calculation in an annual cycle mode. The simulation results are then quantitatively compared with the empirical model, and the above mentioned rms temperature deviation provides an objective measure of the `distance' between the two climatologies. This quantitative criterion makes it possible to apply standard optimization procedures to the whole diagnostic scheme and/or the model itself. The estimates of the zonal drag have been improved in this study by introducing a nudging (Newtonian-cooling) term into the thermodynamic equation at the diagnostic stage. A proper optimal adjustment of the strength of this term makes it possible to further reduce the rms temperature deviation of simulations down to approximately 2.7 K. These results suggest that direct optimization can successfully be applied to atmospheric model parameter identification problems of moderate dimensionality.

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

Effect of soil in nutrient cycle assessment at dairy farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Leeuwen, Maricke; de Boer, Imke; van Dam, Jos; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne

2016-04-01

Annual farm nutrient cycle assessments give valuable insight in the nutrient cycles and nutrient losses at dairy farms. It describes nutrient use efficiencies for the entire farm and for the underlying components cattle, manure, crops and soil. In many modelling studies, soil is kept as a constant factor, while soil quality is vital for soil functioning of the ecosystem. Improving soil quality will improve the nutrient cycle, and will also have positive effect on the soil functions crop production, water cycling and greenhouse gas mitigation. Spatial variation of soil properties within a farm, however, are not included in annual nutrient cycle assessments. Therefore it is impossible to identify fields where most profit can be gained by improving farm management at field level, and it is not possible to identify and to quantify nutrient flow path ways. The aim of this study is to develop a framework to improve the annual nutrient cycle assessment at Dutch dairy farms, by including soil properties and their spatial variation within farms. Soil type and soil quality will be described by visual soil assessment of soil quality characteristics. The visual observations will be linked to the nutrient cycle assessment, using soil-hydrological model SWAP. We will demonstrate how soil quality at field level can impact on crop production, eutrophication potential and greenhouse gas potential at farm level. Also, we will show how this framework can be used by farmers to improve their farm management. This new approach is focusing on annual nutrient cycle assessment, but could also be used in life cycle assessment. It will improve understanding of soil functioning and dairy farm management.

Surface Hydrology in Global River Basins in the Off-Line Land-Surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Yang, Runhua; Houser, Paul R.

1998-01-01

Land surface hydrology for the Off-line Land-surface GEOS Analysis (OLGA) system and Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) Data Assimilation System (DAS) has been examined using a river routing model. The GEOS-1 DAS land-surface parameterization is very simple, using an energy balance prediction of surface temperature and prescribed soil water. OLGA uses near-surface atmospheric data from the GEOS-1 DAS to drive a more comprehensive parameterization of the land-surface physics. The two global systems are evaluated using a global river routing model. The river routing model uses climatologic surface runoff from each system to simulate the river discharge from global river basins, which can be compared to climatologic river discharge. Due to the soil hydrology, the OLGA system shows a general improvement in the simulation of river discharge compared to the GEOS-1 DAS. Snowmelt processes included in OLGA also have a positive effect on the annual cycle of river discharge and source runoff. Preliminary tests of a coupled land-atmosphere model indicate improvements to the hydrologic cycle compared to the uncoupled system. The river routing model has provided a useful tool in the evaluation of the GCM hydrologic cycle, and has helped quantify the influence of the more advanced land surface model.

Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model

PubMed Central

Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

2017-01-01

Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened. PMID:28106048

Seasonal and spatial variation in broadleaf forest model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groenendijk, M.; van der Molen, M. K.; Dolman, A. J.

2009-04-01

Process based, coupled ecosystem carbon, energy and water cycle models are used with the ultimate goal to project the effect of future climate change on the terrestrial carbon cycle. A typical dilemma in such exercises is how much detail the model must be given to describe the observations reasonably realistic while also be general. We use a simple vegetation model (5PM) with five model parameters to study the variability of the parameters. These parameters are derived from the observed carbon and water fluxes from the FLUXNET database. For 15 broadleaf forests the model parameters were derived for different time resolutions. It appears that in general for all forests, the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated carbon and water fluxes improves with a higher parameter time resolution. The quality of the simulations is thus always better when a higher time resolution is used. These results show that annual parameters are not capable of properly describing weather effects on ecosystem fluxes, and that two day time resolution yields the best results. A first indication of the climate constraints can be found by the seasonal variation of the covariance between Jm, which describes the maximum electron transport for photosynthesis, and climate variables. A general seasonality we found is that during winter the covariance with all climate variables is zero. Jm increases rapidly after initial spring warming, resulting in a large covariance with air temperature and global radiation. During summer Jm is less variable, but co-varies negatively with air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and positively with soil water content. A temperature response appears during spring and autumn for broadleaf forests. This shows that an annual model parameter cannot be representative for the entire year. And relations with mean annual temperature are not possible. During summer the photosynthesis parameters are constrained by water availability, soil water content and vapour pressure deficit.

Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

Sex Difference in Draft-Legal Ultra-Distance Events - A Comparison between Ultra-Swimming and Ultra-Cycling.

PubMed

Salihu, Lejla; Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Rosemann, Thomas; Knechtle, Beat

2016-04-30

Recent studies reported that the sex difference in performance in ultra-endurance sports such as swimming and cycling changed over the years. However, the aspect of drafting in draft-legal ultra-endurance races has not yet been investigated. This study investigates the sex difference in ultra-swimming and ultra-cycling draft-legal races where drafting - swimming or cycling behind other participants to save energy and have more power at the end of the race to overtake them, is allowed. The change in performance of the annual best and the annual three best in an ultra-endurance swimming race (16-km 'Faros Swim Marathon') over 38 years and in a 24-h ultra-cycling race ('World Cycling Race') over 13 years were compared and analysed with respect to sex difference. Furthermore, performances of the fastest female and male finishers ever were compared. In the swimming event, the sex difference of the annual best male and female decreased non-significantly (P = 0.262) from 5.3% (1976) to 1.0% (2013). The sex gap of speed in the annual three fastest swimmers decreased significantly (P = 0.043) from 5.9 ± 1.6% (1979) to 4.7 ± 3.1% (2013). In the cycling event, the difference in cycling speed between the annual best male and female decreased significantly (P = 0.026) from 33.31% (1999) to 10.89% (2011). The sex gap of speed in the annual three fastest decreased significantly (P = 0.001) from 32.9 ± 0.6% (1999) to 16.4 ± 5.9% (2011). The fastest male swimmer ever (swimming speed 5.3 km/h, race time: 03:01:55 h:min:s) was 1.5% faster than the fastest female swimmer (swimming speed 5.2 km/h, race time: 03:04:09 h:min:s). The three fastest male swimmers ever (mean 5.27 ± 0.13 km/h) were 4.4% faster than the three fastest female swimmers (mean 5.05 ± 0.20 km/h) (P < 0.05). In the cycling event, the best male ever (cycling speed 45.8 km/h) was 26.4% faster than the best female (cycling speed 36.1 km/h). The three fastest male cyclists ever (45.9 km/h) (mean 45.85 ± 0.05 km/h) were 32.1% faster (P < 0.05) than the three fastest female cyclists ever (34.7 km/h) (mean 34.70 ± 1.87 km/h). In summary, in draft-legal ultra-distance events such as swimming and cycling, the sex difference in the annual top and annual top three swimmers and cyclists decreased (i.e. non-linearly in swimmers and linearly in cyclists) over the years. The sex difference of the fastest athletes ever was smaller in swimming (1.5%) than in cycling (26.4%). This finding is different from reports about races where drafting was not possible or even prohibited and where the sex difference remained stable over years.

Economic and environmental benefits of higher-octane gasoline.

PubMed

Speth, Raymond L; Chow, Eric W; Malina, Robert; Barrett, Steven R H; Heywood, John B; Green, William H

2014-06-17

We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0-4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19-35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5-4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4-6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7-8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winder, M.; Cloern, J.E.

2010-01-01

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chloro-phyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six-or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high. ?? 2010 The Royal Society.

Variable C : N : P stoichiometry of dissolved organic matter cycling in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Letscher, R. T.; Moore, J. K.; Teng, Y. -C.; ...

2014-06-16

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in the ocean's biological carbon pump by providing an advective/mixing pathway for ~ 20% of export production. DOM is known to have a stoichiometry depleted in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) compared to the particulate organic matter pool, a~fact that is often omitted from biogeochemical-ocean general circulation models. However the variable C : N : P stoichiometry of DOM becomes important when quantifying carbon export from the upper ocean and linking the nutrient cycles of N and P with that of carbon. Here we utilize recent advances in DOM observational data coveragemore » and offline tracer-modeling techniques to objectively constrain the variable production and remineralization rates of the DOM C / N / P pools in a simple biogeochemical-ocean model of DOM cycling. The optimized DOM cycling parameters are then incorporated within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) component of the Community Earth System Model and validated against the compilation of marine DOM observations. The optimized BEC simulation including variable DOM C : N : P cycling was found to better reproduce the observed DOM spatial gradients than simulations that used the canonical Redfield ratio. Global annual average export of dissolved organic C, N, and P below 100 m was found to be 2.28 Pg C yr -1 (143 Tmol C yr -1), 16.4 Tmol N yr -1, and 1 Tmol P yr -1, respectively with an average export C : N : P stoichiometry of 225 : 19 : 1 for the semilabile (degradable) DOM pool. DOC export contributed ~ 25% of the combined organic C export to depths greater than 100 m.« less

Variable C : N : P stoichiometry of dissolved organic matter cycling in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Letscher, R. T.; Moore, J. K.; Teng, Y. -C.; ...

2015-01-12

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in the ocean's biological carbon pump by providing an advective/mixing pathway for ~ 20% of export production. DOM is known to have a stoichiometry depleted in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) compared to the particulate organic matter pool, a fact that is often omitted from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models. However the variable C : N : P stoichiometry of DOM becomes important when quantifying carbon export from the upper ocean and linking the nutrient cycles of N and P with that of carbon. Here we utilize recent advances in DOM observationalmore » data coverage and offline tracer-modeling techniques to objectively constrain the variable production and remineralization rates of the DOM C : N : P pools in a simple biogeochemical-ocean model of DOM cycling. The optimized DOM cycling parameters are then incorporated within the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and validated against the compilation of marine DOM observations. The optimized BEC simulation including variable DOM C : N : P cycling was found to better reproduce the observed DOM spatial gradients than simulations that used the canonical Redfield ratio. Global annual average export of dissolved organic C, N, and P below 100 m was found to be 2.28 Pg C yr -1 (143 Tmol C yr -1, 16.4 Tmol N yr -1, and 1 Tmol P yr -1, respectively, with an average export C : N : P stoichiometry of 225 : 19 : 1 for the semilabile (degradable) DOM pool. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export contributed ~ 25% of the combined organic C export to depths greater than 100 m.« less

Seasonality in a temperate zone bird can be entrained by near equatorial photoperiods

PubMed Central

Dawson, Alistair

2006-01-01

Birds use photoperiod to control the time of breeding and moult. However, it is unclear whether responses are dependent on absolute photoperiod, the direction and rate of change in photoperiod, or if photoperiod entrains a circannual clock. If starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) are kept on a constant photoperiod of 12 h light : 12 h darkness per day (12 L : 12 D), then they can show repeated cycles of gonadal maturation, regression and moult, which is evidence for a circannual clock. In this study, starlings kept on constant 11.5 L : 12.5 D for 4 years or 12.5 L : 11.5 D for 3 years showed no circannual cycles in gonadal maturation or moult. So, if there is a circannual clock, it is overridden by a modest deviation in photoperiod from 12 L : 12 D. The responses to 11.5 L : 12.5 D and 12.5 L : 11.5 D were very different, the former perceived as a short photoperiod (birds were photosensitive for most of the time) and the latter as a long photoperiod (birds remained permanently photorefractory). Starlings were then kept on a schedule which ranged from 11.5 L : 12.5 D in mid-winter to 12.5 L : 11.5 D in mid-summer (simulating the annual cycle at 9 °N) for 3 years. These birds entrained precisely to calendar time and changes in testicular size and moult were similar to those of birds under a simulated cycle at 52 °N. These data show that birds are very sensitive to changes in photoperiod but that they do not simply respond to absolute photoperiod nor can they rely on a circannual clock. Instead, birds appear to respond to the shape of the annual change in photoperiod. This proximate control could operate from near equatorial latitudes and would account for similar seasonal timing in individuals of a species over a wide range of latitudes. PMID:17254997

Realistic dust and water cycles in the MarsWRF GCM using coupled two-moment microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christopher; Richardson, Mark Ian; Mischna, Michael A.; Newman, Claire E.

2017-10-01

Dust and water ice aerosols significantly complicate the Martian climate system because the evolution of the two aerosol fields is coupled through microphysics and because both aerosols strongly interact with visible and thermal radiation. The combination of strong forcing feedback and coupling has led to various problems in understanding and modeling of the Martian climate: in reconciling cloud abundances at different locations in the atmosphere, in generating a stable dust cycle, and in preventing numerical instability within models.Using a new microphysics model inside the MarsWRF GCM we show that fully coupled simulations produce more realistic simulation of the Martian climate system compared to a dry, dust only simulations. In the coupled simulations, interannual variability and intra-annual variability are increased, strong 'solstitial pause' features are produced in both winter high latitude regions, and dust storm seasons are more varied, with early southern summer (Ls 180) dust storms and/or more than one storm occurring in some seasons.A new microphysics scheme was developed as a part of this work and has been included in the MarsWRF model. The scheme uses split spectral/spatial size distribution numerics with adaptive bin sizes to track particle size evolution. Significantly, this scheme is highly accurate, numerically stable, and is capable of running with time steps commensurate with those of the parent atmospheric model.

Contribution of piezometric measurement to knowledge and management of low water levels: examples on the chalk aquifer in the Champagne Ardennes region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stollsteiner, P.; Bessiere, H.; Nicolas, J.; Allier, D.; Berthet, O.

2015-04-01

This article is based on a BRGM study on piezometric indicators, threshold values of discharge and groundwater levels for the assessment of potentially-exploitable water resources of chalky watersheds. A method for estimating low water levels based on groundwater levels is presented from three examples representing chalk aquifers with different cycles: annual, combined and interannual. The first is located in Picardy and the two others in the Champagne-Ardennes region. Piezometers with annual cycles, used in these examples, are supposed to be representative of the aquifer hydro-dynamics. Except for multi-annual systems, the analysis between discharge measurements at a hydrometric station and groundwater levels measured at a piezometer representative of the main aquifer, leads to relatively precise and satisfactory relationships within a chalky context. These relationships may be useful for monitoring, validation, extension or reconstruction of the low water flow data. On the one hand, they allow definition of the piezometric levels corresponding to the different alert thresholds of river discharges. On the other hand, they clarify the proportions of low surface water flow from runoff or drainage of the aquifer. Finally, these correlations give an assessment of the minimum flow for the coming weeks. However, these correlations cannot be used to optimize the value of the exploitable water resource because it seems to be difficult to integrate the value of the effective rainfall that could occur during the draining period. Moreover, in the case of multi-annual systems, the solution is to attempt a comprehensive system modelling and, if it is satisfactory, using the simulated values to get rid of parasites or running the model for forecasting purposes.

Impact of the Mountain Pine Beetle on the Forest Carbon Cycle in British Columbia from 1999 TO 2008 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Czurylowicz, P.; Mo, G.; Black, T. A.

2013-12-01

The unprecedented mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia starting in 1998 affected about 50% of the lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests occupying about 50% of the land area of the province. The impact of this outbreak on the C cycle is assessed in this study. Annual leaf area index (LAI) maps of the affected area from 1999 to 2008 were produced using SPOT VEGETATION data, and net ecosystem production (NEP) was modeled using inputs of LAI, land cover, soil texture and daily meteorological data with the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). Both LAI and NEP were validated using field measurements. LAI was found to decrease on average by 20% compared to pre-outbreak conditions, while NEP decreased on average by 90%. Annual NEP values ranged from 2.4 to -8.0 Tg C between 1999 and 2008, with the ecosystem changing from a carbon sink to a carbon source in 2000. The annual average NEP was -2.9 Tg C over the 10 years, resulting in a total loss of carbon of 29 Tg C to the atmosphere. The inter-annual variability of both LAI and NEP was characterized by substantial initial decreases followed by steady increases from 2006 to 2008 with NEP returning to near carbon neutrality in 2008 (-1.8 Pg C/y). The impact of this MPB outbreak appears to be less dramatic than previously anticipated. The apparent fast recovery of LAI and NEP after MPB attacks is examined under the framework of ecosystem resilience which was manifested in the form of secondary overstory and understory growth and increased production of non-attacked host trees.

Groundwater and surface water scaling over the continental US using a hyperresolution, integrated hydrologic model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Moore, S. M.; Sampson, K. M.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.

2014-12-01

Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (p<0.05), and 0.7-1.9 weeks earlier for 2065-2080 (p<0.01), with the largest shifts for scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The more southerly mid-Atlantic States exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.

Modeling the Response of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Kenya Highlands to a Rise in Mean Annual Temperature.

PubMed

Wallace, Dorothy; Prosper, Olivia; Savos, Jacob; Dunham, Ann M; Chipman, Jonathan W; Shi, Xun; Ndenga, Bryson; Githeko, Andrew

2017-03-01

A dynamical model of Anopheles gambiae larval and adult populations is constructed that matches temperature-dependent maturation times and mortality measured experimentally as well as larval instar and adult mosquito emergence data from field studies in the Kenya Highlands. Spectral classification of high-resolution satellite imagery is used to estimate household density. Indoor resting densities collected over a period of one year combined with predictions of the dynamical model give estimates of both aquatic habitat and total adult mosquito densities. Temperature and precipitation patterns are derived from monthly records. Precipitation patterns are compared with average and extreme habitat estimates to estimate available aquatic habitat in an annual cycle. These estimates are coupled with the original model to produce estimates of adult and larval populations dependent on changing aquatic carrying capacity for larvae and changing maturation and mortality dependent on temperature. This paper offers a general method for estimating the total area of aquatic habitat in a given region, based on larval counts, emergence rates, indoor resting density data, and number of households.Altering the average daily temperature and the average daily rainfall simulates the effect of climate change on annual cycles of prevalence of An. gambiae adults. We show that small increases in average annual temperature have a large impact on adult mosquito density, whether measured at model equilibrium values for a single square meter of habitat or tracked over the course of a year of varying habitat availability and temperature. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spherical harmonic analysis of a model-generated climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christidis, Z. D.; Spar, J.

1981-01-01

Monthly mean fields of 850 mb temperature (T850), 500 mb geopotential height (G500) and sea level pressure (SLP) were generated in the course of a five-year climate simulation run with a global general circulation model. Both the model-generated climatology and an observed climatology were subjected to spherical harmonic analysis, with separate analyses of the globe and the Northern Hemisphere. Comparison of the dominant harmonics of the two climatologies indicates that more than 95% of the area-weighted spatial variance of G500 and more than 90% of that of T850 are explained by fewer than three components, and that the model adequately simulates these large-scale characteristics. On the other hand, as many as 25 harmonics are needed to explain 95% of the observed variance of SLP, and the model simulation of this field is much less satisfactory. The model climatology is also evaluated in terms of the annual cycles of the dominant harmonics.

Present-day Antarctic climatology of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Bromwich, David H.; Parish, Thomas R.

1993-01-01

The ability of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1) with R 15 resolution to simulate the present-day climate of Antarctica was evaluated using the five-year seasonal cycle output produced by the CCM1 and comparing the model results with observed horizontal syntheses and point data. The results showed that the CCM1 with R 15 resolution can simulate to some extent the dynamics of Antarctic climate on the synoptic scale as well as some mesoscale features. The model can also simulate the phase and the amplitude of the annual and semiannual variation of the temperature, sea level pressure, and zonally averaged zonal (E-W) wind. The main shortcomings of the CCM1 model are associated with the model's anomalously large precipitation amounts at high latitudes, due to the tendency of the scheme to suppress negative moisture values.

Remote sensing evaluation of CLM4 GPP for the period 2000 to 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Jiafu; Thornton, Peter E; Shi, Xiaoying

2012-01-01

The ability of a process-based ecosystem model like Version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) to provide accurate estimates of CO2 flux is a top priority for researchers, modelers and policy makers. Remote sensing can provide long-term and large scale products suitable for ecosystem model evaluation. Global estimations of gross primary production (GPP) at the 1 km spatial resolution from years 2000 to 2009 from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor offer a unique opportunity for evaluating the temporal and spatial patterns of global GPP and its relationship with climate for CLM4. We compare monthly GPP simulated bymore » CLM4 at half-degree resolution with satellite estimates of GPP from the MODIS GPP (MOD17) dataset for the 10-yr period, January 2000 December 2009. The assessment is presented in terms of long-term mean carbon assimilation, seasonal mean distributions, amplitude and phase of the annual cycle, and intra-annual and inter-annual GPP variability and their responses to climate variables. For the long-term annual and seasonal means, major GPP patterns are clearly demonstrated by both products. Compared to the MODIS product, CLM4 overestimates the magnitude of GPP for tropical evergreen forests. CLM4 has longer carbon uptake period than MODIS for most plant functional types (PFTs) with an earlier onset of GPP in spring and later decline of GPP in autumn. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the monthly GPP changes indicates that on the intra-annual scale, both CLM4 and MODIS display similar spatial representations and temporal patterns for most terrestrial ecosystems except in northeast Russia and the very dry region in central Australia. For 2000-2009, CLM4 simulates increases in annual averaged GPP over both hemispheres, however estimates from MODIS suggest a reduction in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.2173 PgC/year) balancing the significant increase over the Northern Hemisphere (0.2157 PgC/year).« less

Implementing and Evaluating Variable Soil Thickness in the Community Land Model, Version 4.5 (CLM4.5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunke, Michael A.; Broxton, Patrick; Pelletier, Jon

2016-05-01

One of the recognized weaknesses of land surface models as used in weather and climate models is the assumption of constant soil thickness due to the lack of global estimates of bedrock depth. Using a 30 arcsecond global dataset for the thickness of relatively porous, unconsolidated sediments over bedrock, spatial variation in soil thickness is included here in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The number of soil layers for each grid cell is determined from the average soil depth for each 0.9° latitude x 1.25° longitude grid cell. Including variable soil thickness affects the simulations most inmore » regions with shallow bedrock corresponding predominantly to areas of mountainous terrain. The greatest changes are to baseflow, with the annual minimum generally occurring earlier, while smaller changes are seen in surface fluxes like latent heat flux and surface runoff in which only the annual cycle amplitude is increased. These changes are tied to soil moisture changes which are most substantial in locations with shallow bedrock. Total water storage (TWS) anomalies do not change much over most river basins around the globe, since most basins contain mostly deep soils. However, it was found that TWS anomalies substantially differ for a river basin with more mountainous terrain. Additionally, the annual cycle in soil temperature are affected by including realistic soil thicknesses due to changes to heat capacity and thermal conductivity.« less

Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5° resolution for 1948 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Yun; van den Dool, Huug

2004-05-01

We have produced a 0.5° × 0.5° monthly global soil moisture data set for the period from 1948 to the present. The land model is a one-layer "bucket" water balance model, while the driving input fields are Climate Prediction Center monthly global precipitation over land, which uses over 17,000 gauges worldwide, and monthly global temperature from global Reanalysis. The output consists of global monthly soil moisture, evaporation, and runoff, starting from January 1948. A distinguishing feature of this data set is that all fields are updated monthly, which greatly enhances utility for near-real-time purposes. Data validation shows that the land model does well; both the simulated annual cycle and interannual variability of soil moisture are reasonably good against the limited observations in different regions. A data analysis reveals that, on average, the land surface water balance components have a stronger annual cycle in the Southern Hemisphere than those in the Northern Hemisphere. From the point of view of soil moisture, climates can be characterized into two types, monsoonal and midlatitude climates, with the monsoonal ones covering most of the low-latitude land areas and showing a more prominent annual variation. A global soil moisture empirical orthogonal function analysis and time series of hemisphere means reveal some interesting patterns (like El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and long-term trends in both regional and global scales.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles.

PubMed

Vourlitis, George L; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlitis, George L.; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration ( E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52 % of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42 % of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl

2015-05-01

Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism - the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Juanico, Drandreb Earl; National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101

Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backwardmore » Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.« less

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mursula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993-2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Atmospheric Dissolved Iron Depostiion to the Global Oceans: Effects of Oxalate-Promoted Fe Dissolution, Photochemical Redox Cycling, and Dust Mineralogy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, M. S.; Meskhidze, N.

2013-01-01

Mineral dust deposition is suggested to be a significant atmospheric supply pathway of bioavailable iron (Fe) to Fe-depleted surface oceans. In this study, mineral dust and dissolved Fe (Fed) deposition rates are predicted for March 2009 to February 2010 using the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem implemented with a comprehensive dust-Fe dissolution scheme. The model simulates Fed production during the atmospheric transport of mineral dust taking into account inorganic and organic (oxalate)-promoted Fe dissolution processes, photochemical redox cycling between ferric (Fe(III)) and ferrous (Fe(II)) forms of Fe, dissolution of three different Fe-containing minerals (hematite, goethite, and aluminosilicates), and detailed mineralogy of windblown dust from the major desert regions. Our calculations suggest that during the yearlong simulation is approximately 0.26 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) of Fed was deposited to global oceanic regions. Compared to simulations only taking into account proton-promoted Fe dissolution, the addition of oxalate to the dust-Fe mobilization scheme increased total annual model-predicted Fed deposition to global oceanic regions by approximately 75%. The implementation of Fe(II)/Fe(III) photochemical redox cycling in the model allows for the distinction between different oxidation states of deposited Fed. Our calculations suggest that during the daytime, large fractions of Fed deposited to the global oceans is likely to be in Fe(II) form, while nocturnal fluxes of Fed are largely in Fe(III) form. Model simulations also show that atmospheric fluxes of Fed can be strongly influenced by the mineralogy of Fe-containing compounds. This study shows that Fed deposition to the oceans is controlled by total dust-Fe mass concentrations, mineralogy, the surface area of dust particles, atmospheric chemical composition, cloud processing, and meteorological parameters and exhibits complex and spatiotemporally variable patterns. Our study suggests that the explicit model representation of individual processes leading to Fed production within mineral dust are needed to improve the understanding of the atmospheric Fe cycle, and quantify the effect of dust-Fe on ocean biological productivity, carbon cycle, and climate.

Relationships of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor, Clouds and SST: MLS Observations, ECMWF Analyses and GCM Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Hui; Waliser, Duane E.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Li, Jui-lin; Read, William G.; Waters, Joe W.; Tompkins, Adrian M.

2006-01-01

The relationships of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV), cloud ice and sea surface temperature (SST) are examined in the annual cycles of ECMWF analyses and simulations from 15 atmosphere-ocean coupled models which were contributed to the IPCC AR4. The results are compared with the observed relationships based on UTWV and cloud ice measurements from MLS on Aura. It is shown that the ECMWF analyses produce positive correlations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST, similar to the MLS data. The rate of the increase of cloud ice and UTWV with SST is about 30% larger than that for MLS. For the IPCC simulations, the relationships between UTWV, cloud ice and SST are qualitatively captured. However, the magnitudes of the simulated cloud ice show a considerable disagreement between models, by nearly a factor of 10. The amplitudes of the approximate linear relations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST vary by a factor up to 4.

Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

2014-12-01

GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

Relationships between annual cycles of testosterone, corticosterone, and body condition in male red-spotted garter snakes, Thamnophis sirtalis concinnus.

PubMed

Moore, I T; Lerner, J P; Lerner, D T; Mason, R T

2000-01-01

Over a 2-yr period, we investigated the annual cycles of plasma testosterone and corticosterone and the relationships between these hormones and body condition in a wild population of male red-spotted garter snakes, Thamnophis sirtalis concinnus. In the 10 mo that were sampled, a peak in testosterone was observed in late summer during gametogenesis and declining through the spring breeding period. Corticosterone and testosterone cycles were positively correlated, in contrast to many vertebrates, suggesting the lack of a direct negative interaction between the two hormones. Body condition, defined as the residual of the regression of mass on snout-vent length, also cycled annually, with individuals being more robust during the summer than during the spring or fall. Individuals with a positive body condition had significantly lower plasma levels of corticosterone than did individuals with a negative body condition, supporting the energetic role of glucocorticoids. There was no relationship between body condition and testosterone. This study suggests that annual cycles of testosterone, corticosterone, and body condition can be associated with one another, and considering all three simultaneously is necessary to understand their control and function.

The Annual Cycle of the Japan Sea Throughflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kida, S.; Qiu, B.; Yang, J.; Lin, X.

2016-02-01

The mechanism responsible for the annual cycle of the flows through the straits of Japan Sea is investigated using a two-layer model. Japan Sea is one of the marginal sea located in the western North Pacific that is separated from the Pacific by the islands of Japan. Three narrow and shallow straits, the Tsushima, Tsugaru, and Soya Straits, connect this sea towards the Pacific Ocean and Okhotsk Sea and observations show that the flow through these three straits vary annually with a maximum transport in summer-fall and a minimum transport in winter. The variability is large for Soya (north) and Tsushima (south) Straits but weak for the Tsugaru Strait (middle). We find the subpolar winds located to the north of Soya Strait to be the primary forcing agent of this annual cycle rather than the subtropical winds located to the east of Japan. The subpolar winds generate baroclinic Kelvin waves that perturb the sea surface height at the Soya Strait, cause barotropic adjustment to occur within the Japan Sea, and change the flow at the other straits. The shallow topography at the straits plays an important role. This mechanism explains why the annual cycle at the three straits occur almost synchronously. We also find the around-island integral constraint a useful tool for explaining how the magnitude of the annual cycle at the three straits are controlled. The theorem show the magnitude and direction of the flow controlled largely by the ratio of the meridional length of the two islands that is bounded by the three straits..

Trends and annual cycles in soundings of Arctic tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, Bo; Jepsen, Nis; Kivi, Rigel; Hansen, Georg; Larsen, Niels; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik

2017-08-01

Ozone soundings from nine Nordic stations have been homogenized and interpolated to standard pressure levels. The different stations have very different data coverage; the longest period with data is from the end of the 1980s to 2014. At each pressure level the homogenized ozone time series have been analysed with a model that includes both low-frequency variability in the form of a polynomial, an annual cycle with harmonics, the possibility for low-frequency variability in the annual amplitude and phasing, and either white noise or noise given by a first-order autoregressive process. The fitting of the parameters is performed with a Bayesian approach not only giving the mean values but also confidence intervals. The results show that all stations agree on a well-defined annual cycle in the free troposphere with a relatively confined maximum in the early summer. Regarding the low-frequency variability, it is found that Scoresbysund, Ny Ålesund, Sodankylä, Eureka, and Ørland show similar, significant signals with a maximum near 2005 followed by a decrease. This change is characteristic for all pressure levels in the free troposphere. A significant change in the annual cycle was found for Ny Ålesund, Scoresbysund, and Sodankylä. The changes at these stations are in agreement with the interpretation that the early summer maximum is appearing earlier in the year. The results are shown to be robust to the different settings of the model parameters such as the order of the polynomial, number of harmonics in the annual cycle, and the type of noise.

The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butt, E. W.; Rap, A.; Schmidt, A.; Scott, C. E.; Pringle, K. J.; Reddington, C. L.; Richards, N. A. D.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Yang, H.; Vakkari, V.; Stone, E. A.; Rupakheti, M.; Praveen, P. S.; van Zyl, P. G.; Beukes, J. P.; Josipovic, M.; Mitchell, E. J. S.; Sallu, S. M.; Forster, P. M.; Spracklen, D. V.

2016-01-01

Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (> 30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300-497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000-827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between -66 and +21 mW m-2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between -52 and -16 mW m-2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.

SEX-LINKED CHANGES IN PHASE 1 BIOTRANSFORMATION OF PHENOL IN BROOK TROUT OVER AN ANNUAL REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE

EPA Science Inventory

The microsomal metabolism of phenol (11 degrees C) over an annual reproductive cycle from June to December has been studied using fall spawning adult brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Incubations were optimized for time, cofactor connection, pH, and microsomal protein concentr...

Transparency Master: The Annual Aphid Cycle.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sessions, Mary Lynne

1983-01-01

Aphids, often referred to as plant lice, can be found in great numbers on stems, leaves, and flowers of many plants. In many cases these organisms are potentially harmful to their plant hosts. Provided is a description of the annual life cycle of the aphid and an accompanying transparency master. (Author/JN)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Ionospheric winter anomaly and annual anomaly observed from Formosat-3/COSMIC Radio Occultation observations during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.

2017-10-01

Ionospheric winter and annual anomalies have been investigated during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using high-resolution global 3D - data of the FORMOSAT - 3/COSMIC (Formosa satellite - 3/Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere and Climate) radio occultation observations. Our detailed analysis shows that the occurrence of winter anomaly at low-latitudes is confined only to the early morning to afternoon hours, whereas, the winter anomaly at mid-latitudes is almost absent at all local times during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Further, in the topside ionosphere (altitudes of 400 km and above), the winter anomaly is completely absent at all local times. In contrast, the ionospheric annual anomaly is consistently observed at all local times and altitudes during this ascending phase of solar cycle 24. The annual anomaly exhibits strong enhancements over southern EIA crest latitudes during day time and around Weddle Sea Anomaly (WSA) region during night times. The global mean annual asymmetry index is also computed to understand the altitudinal variation. The global mean AI maximizes around 300-500 km altitudes during the low solar active periods (2008-10), whereas it extends up to 600 km during moderate to high (2011) solar activity period. These findings from our study provide new insights to the current understanding of the annual anomaly.

Integrating peatlands into the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) v3.6 and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yuanqiao; Verseghy, Diana L.; Melton, Joe R.

2016-08-01

Peatlands, which contain large carbon stocks that must be accounted for in the global carbon budget, are poorly represented in many earth system models. We integrated peatlands into the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), which together simulate the fluxes of water, energy, and CO2 at the land surface-atmosphere boundary in the family of Canadian Earth system models (CanESMs). New components and algorithms were added to represent the unique features of peatlands, such as their characteristic ground floor vegetation (mosses), the slow decomposition of carbon in the water-logged soils and the interaction between the water, energy, and carbon cycles. This paper presents the modifications introduced into the CLASS-CTEM modelling framework together with site-level evaluations of the model performance for simulated water, energy and carbon fluxes at eight different peatland sites. The simulated daily gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration are well correlated with observations, with values of the Pearson correlation coefficient higher than 0.8 and 0.75 respectively. The simulated mean annual net ecosystem production at the eight test sites is 87 g C m-2 yr-1, which is 22 g C m-2 yr-1 higher than the observed annual mean. The general peatland model compares well with other site-level and regional-level models for peatlands, and is able to represent bogs and fens under a range of climatic and geographical conditions.

Integrating peatlands into the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) v3.6 and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Verseghy, D. L.; Melton, J. R.

2015-11-01

Peatlands, which contain large carbon stocks that must be accounted for in the global carbon budget, are poorly represented in many earth system models. We integrated peatlands into the coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), which together simulate the fluxes of water, energy and CO2 at the land surface-atmosphere boundary in the family of Canadian Earth System Models (CanESMs). New components and algorithms were added to represent the unique features of peatlands, such as their characteristic ground floor vegetation (mosses), the slow decomposition of carbon in the water-logged soils and the interaction between the water, energy and carbon cycles. This paper presents the modifications introduced into the CLASS-CTEM modelling framework together with site-level evaluations of the model performance for simulated water, energy and carbon fluxes at eight different peatland sites. The simulated daily gross primary production and ecosystem respiration are well correlated with observations, with values of the Pearson correlation coefficient higher than 0.8 and 0.75 respectively. The simulated mean annual net ecosystem production at the eight test sites is 87 g C m-2 yr-1, which is 22 g C m-2 yr-1 higher than the observed annual mean. The general peatland model compares well with other site-level and regional-level models for peatlands, and is able to represent bogs and fens under a range of climatic and geographical conditions.

Annual nitrate drawdown observed by SOCCOM profiling floats and the relationship to annual net community production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Kenneth S.; Plant, Joshua N.; Dunne, John P.; Talley, Lynne D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-08-01

Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30°S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m-2 yr-1) from 40 to 50°S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 for all regions south of 40°S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50°S is 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area.